British lenders approved only 42,000 mortgages in May, falling from a paltry 58,000 in April, the Bank of England reported Monday.
The figure was the lowest since the statistical series began in 1999.
The data were “yet another sign that the U.K. housing market is in free fall,” wrote Michael Saunders, chief U.K. economist at Citi. “With consumer confidence plunging, a major period of consumer retrenchment is likely.”
Actually, what I meant to say; There should be a sabbatical regarding Obama/McCain talk on this blog, for the next 5 months. If one is compelled to discuss, take it off line. Maybe JB can get creative, come up with something similar to an off balance sheet siv., link it to some other crap.
Cindy McCain’s taxes, Obama’s birth certificate?? I’d rather read Bi’s investment strategy. At least you know you’ll make $, if you take the other side of the trade.
Fortis expects within the next few days to weeks to complete the collapse of the US financial markets. That explains the bank insurers interventions of the series Thursday at dealing with 8 Billion Euors. “We are ready at the last minute. It goes in the United States much worse than thought”, said Fortis Chairman Maurice Lippens, who maintains that CEO Votron to live. Fortis expects bankruptcies among 6000 US banks that now lack coverage. “But Citigroup, General Motors, there begins a complete meltdown in the United States”
I have it on the way - from the review “To restore credibility Morris says “American officials and financial leaders must forthrightly admit the scale of the problem and proceed to purge the absurd valuations, the phony triple-A ratings, the inflated balance sheets, and the hidden liabilities that are marbled through financial balance sheets.”
Credibility and financial balance sheets - now there are two words I haven’t seen in the same sentence in quite some time.
Now that you spelled it out for them (well, and me) maybe they’ll take heed.
What scares me is bi predicted the stock market would bounce back either Friday or today. If he’s off by +$100 on oil… maybe today IS a good day to draw the blinds and play hookey.
It’s been 14 years since investors suffered as big a retreat in stocks and bonds and some of the largest money managers say the losses may have more in common with the 1974 bear market before the worst is over.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropped 3.4 percent since March and investors in Treasuries lost 2.88 percent, the steepest combined plunge in 14 years, according to data compiled by Merrill Lynch & Co. and Bloomberg. Equity and debt markets fell in tandem for only the sixth time since the savings and loan crisis of the 1990s as oil closed at a record 19 times and concern grew that inflation will cut the value of bond payments.
…
The drop in the Dow to its lowest level since September 2006 is part of a “secular bear market” that may last 10 to 15 years as home prices fall, consumers default and tighter credit slows economic growth, says Ryan Atkinson of Balestra Capital Ltd., which manages $550 million including last year’s fourth-best performing U.S. hedge fund and is wagering equities will fall.
“The vast majority of investors are long-only investors and they would like nothing more than for stocks to always move to the upside,” said Atkinson after the Dow came within 15 points of a 20 percent retreat from its October record. “History shows we have bull markets and we have bear markets, and this is a bear market. That’s what they’re missing.”
Good for you Jim, but I hope your not reading it… get away .. go stop.
Found this interesting since I was just mentioning this to my kids. I was explaining inflation, how last year it was obvious I was spending more for the same groceries and I know this because I do on line shopping, and buy the same items at costco. Well 2-3 weeks ago was when I noticed it’s not a gallon of Ice cream anymore, I can fit more cereal boxes on the same shelf, its no longer a gallon of water. I’m glad food manufacturers had my storing convenience in mind when giving me less food for the money. http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1818761,00.html?xid=rss-topstories
The XLF scare the dickens out of me. A total rout of RE is probably just scratching the surface. Those storm clouds, which we have discussed, over the past couple of years are in perfect alingment. You can cut the tension with a knife.
Taylor Wimpey Plc, reeling from the worst U.K. housing slump in 30 years, will write down 660 million pounds ($1.3 billion) of real estate and plans to raise cash from investors after falling home sales depleted capital.
Went house hunting this weekend. Man the sellers are still nutso. Saw a house for 1.2 million with paint peeling, roof falling apart, pool with a toxic mess that hasn’t been open in year, extentions cords all over place because of broken outlets, non working doors and missing COs all over the place and did I forget non working 1970s appliances in the kitchen and three pink bathrooms. Kids got their 85 year old parents to give up house after four years of trying and they are pricing it based on what a builder would have gave them in 2006 who was going to gut and rebuild. Builder of course no longer wants it and builder did not know about all the CO issues. I give up. Rolling bonds today for another one to two years and will try again in 2010. With closed end single state funds paying 5% and short term munis at 4% who needs real estate.
Want 60% off your mortgage balance? talk to Indy Mac.
“The Indy Mac performing loan sale that was reported to have been done at about 60% of asking price has fallen apart. Most of the bids at the 60% level were withdrawn after further due diligence. The actual prices the stuff went for is between 20% and 45%. By the way Indy Mac had current appraisals supporting their asking price.”
Until things get this bad, enjoy the RE market, it is still strong in NJ.
“The Real Estate Nightmare I Found In Las Vegas
It’s Friday night about 8:00 and I just returned from the IMN Distressed Real Estate Conference in Las Vegas. I want to give you some initial impressions this evening, basically just a skeleton outline and over the weekend and probably into next week I will try and add some flesh to these bones.
As a preamble, I attended an IMN Conference at the end of May 2007. That one was also real estate oriented and approached the subject from the standpoint of pools of capital dedicated to real estate investment. It couldn’t have been a more upbeat conference. There were a lot of fund managers who left you with the impression that they were well on their way to controlling a better part of the real estate assets of the country. So high was the confidence level that the buzz around the meeting rooms was all about getting into foreign markets. Today it seems like that wasn’t a year ago but more like I am living on a different planet.
In no particular order here is a synopsis of this year’s conference:
1. No one has any idea when we will reach a bottom simply because no one knows how many classes of real estate are going down. The most optimistic guess was 2010 but most wouldn’t even hazard a guess. Some of the grey hairs think 5 or 6 years.
2. The problems in the residential side are quickly spilling over to the commercial real estate market.
3. The spread between bid and asked prices is as large as the Grand Canyon. Banks and particularly the community banks can’t afford to take the write-downs the bid price implies.
4. Aside from say multi-family and really solid income producing properties (producing solid verifiable income now, not projected income) there is no debt available. There is lots of equity looking for 20% and up returns. Since these will have to be largely unleveraged, the asset price required to deliver the return is abysmally low. Further driving down implied valuations is the fact that the equity is Wall Street money with 3 to 5 year time horizons. No one thought that was achievable (with the exception of the Wall Street boys in the audience, of course).
5. The complicated capital stacks of the past are history. Simplicity is in and you can kiss non-recourse goodbye.
6. Builder lots are selling for improvement cost or less. Basically, the land is free. There is no debt available and the volume of transactions is approaching zero.
7. Small and mid-level banks are in trouble. So are the big boys but the govies will take care of them? Several of the deal guys said that banks they contacted three months ago about buying assets are all of a sudden calling back. Three months ago they said everything was fine. The idea du jour is to buy the bank to get the bank’s real estate. Sounds screwy to me but I’ll write some more about this one tomorrow.
8. Most think this is a credit driven problem, not a supply problem which was the case in 1991. They think the crunch is really going to start hitting when commercial loans mature and need refinancing. Unlike 1991 there is lots of equity on the sidelines which is a good thing. The bad difference from 1991 is that we got into this mess with a good economy not a recession. So if the economy goes south it could get real rough.
9. Banks have been rewriting their loans and creating new interest reserves to keep the Zombies alive. The regulators have said full stop.
10. The big buzz word is “value added” as in look at my Excel spread sheet and how it shows us increasing rents and occupancy and how much money we will make with which to pay you back. Most of the fund providers aren’t buying.
11. Underwriting is getting tougher and tougher. As one participant said,” …if you have financing take it and close the deal NOW.”
12. Mezzanine is going to be important as the level of available senior debt in the capital stack shrinks. Most Mezz lenders now only going up to 85%. They are also adjusting any appraisals by five to ten percent.
13. Lot prices in the hardest hit areas are back to 2000 to 2001 levels.
14. There is an absolute disconnect on valuations among buyers, sellers, senior debt, mezzanine and equity. Thus no deals are coming together.
15. Appraisals are good for no more than a month as values are deteriorating so rapidly. Some felt that the appraisers were only picking up sales comps and missing the comps that could be derived from note sales. Basically, no one trusts appraisals.
16. The Indy Mac performing loan sale that was reported to have been done at about 60% of asking price has fallen apart. Most of the bids at the 60% level were withdrawn after further due diligence. The actual prices the stuff went for is between 20% and 45%. By the way Indy Mac had current appraisals supporting their asking price.
17. The Wall Street Wizards are proving to be particularly inept at working out real estate problems. Essentially, they don’t know anything about operating real estate. On top of that, many of the banks don’t have expertise so there seem to be a lot of bad decisions going down (much more about this later).
18. Things are going downhill so fast that deals that were struck 3 months ago need to be restructured.
19. Finally, the conference concluded with a representative from the Fed and one from the Office of Thrift Supervision. They dodged, weaved and evaded the hard issues. My take, reading between the lines, is that they are scared to death. Again, I will expand on this in the next couple of days.
We went to this conference, frankly hoping to meet some people and start networking to possibly pick up some assets on the cheap. We did this back in the early 1990’s and it worked out well. We were shocked by what we heard. This is not just a problem with residential real estate. It is a problem with every class of real estate. There are one or two positives that may help lead us out of the situation but, so far, I think that the looming negatives may overwhelm everything.
“The spread between bid and asked prices is as large as the Grand Canyon. Banks and particularly the community banks can’t afford to take the write-downs the bid price implies.”
“Finally, the conference concluded with a representative from the Fed and one from the Office of Thrift Supervision. They dodged, weaved and evaded the hard issues. My take, reading between the lines, is that they are scared to death.”[Edit: I would also have been s**tting in my pants]
Municipal governments throughout New Jersey are preparing to fight a series of new affordable-housing rules that, they say, will force steep hikes in property taxes, already the highest in the nation.
“I don’t think a lot of towns realize what’s hit them yet,” said David Sandahl, a committeeman in Hopewell Township. He is helping spearhead one of the legal challenges, and more than 100 towns have signed on.
===
Their discontent is focused on a 1-2 punch from state government. In the spring, new rules approved by the New Jersey Council on Affordable Housing greatly increased the amount of low-cost housing that towns are required to build. Then, on Monday, the state Senate approved a sweeping housing bill that, among other things, restricted how much money towns can collect to fulfill those obligations.
Taken in tandem, municipal officials say, the new measures will cost towns $6 billion to $7 billion over the next 10 years, giving them no choice but to boost taxes.
Gov. Jon Corzine is expected today to sign a $32.9 billion state spending plan he calls “truly unprecedented” because it eliminates nearly $600 million from the previous year’s outlays.
Now it’s up to the counties and municipalities to figure out how to do with less. Or… they could always raise taxes.
#51 Rich: he just needs to go to a few parties in NJ, to see how the mood regarding real estate (and the rest of the economy for that matter), has utterly changed.
54#, frank, by this bill, raising tax is one the way, see my post #43. it will be transftered to municipalities.
now i have problem with big city mayors: why are you so happy when you have been raped?
Why not just raise taxes? Suckers will pay anyway.
Yup, it’s a slam dunk, no doubt about it. How there is not an absolute revolution in this state is beyond me. The cost of living here is approaching off-the-chart status and the idi*ts continue to follow whatever their neighbors and friends do…. blindly.
BTW, we’ve decided we are not going to try to trade up to another house. That’s it… we’re done. We’ll fix up what we have and call it a day. Still seeing $600,000 and $12,000+ in taxes for “nothing” homes. Good luck, I’m f*cking finished with it.
“HSBC is believed to have approached potential buyers for its skyscraper head office in London’s Canary Wharf amid fears it might have to repossess the building from the Spanish property group that paid a record £1.1bn for it last year.
Metrovacesa, Spain’s largest property company, is trying to refinance the £810m of short-term debt it took out with HSBC to buy 8 Canada Square, in what was Britain’s biggest single building sale.”
NJ keeps voting for higher taxes, more unions and more government spending, so who cares that you don’t agree with it, in a democracy, majority rules, so suck it up and pay or move to NC.
The RE industry and the sellers are a scream! I see the words, “according to the NAR” and I laugh hysterically. It’s like watching the fat kid slip on the banana peel in the lunch room at school. You laugh so hard the milk comes out of your nose. The whole thing is hilarious! Not the people losing their homes but the sellers asking these prices like they expect to hit the lottery and the realtors trying to convince someone to fall for it. “Buy now are be priced out forever!” It’s a punchline. As long as the sellers and the RE industry continue to do stand up, I’ll continue to laugh.
I only hated the kid until the next game! :) I’ll gladly help you pick the boots out but I’m done. If I really see vultures picking at body parts on the side of the road in a few years, I might reconsider. I’ve already spoken to a carpenter to consider re-doing the baths. I wasn’t going to, but we’re done. We’ve had it.
The taxes alone are absolutely insane. Mine are rising about 7% per year. When we bought in 2001, it was approx. $5700. I just got another notice and they’re now at approx. $8300. That’s for a cape on a 50 X 100 lot.
I was looking at a bank owned home listed on GSMLS. It went on the market a few weeks ago and now over the weekend, the remarks were changed to “No more showings”.
Does this mean that the have received enough offers and/or accepted an offer? Why would it still be listed then?
Gary
I completely understand that. Taxes are crazy everywhere in NJ, some places worse then others. So are you saying even if prices come down the way some hope/expect them too, houses will still be unaffordable beacuse of the taxes?
I see some seller capitulation just starting. I negatiated down a condo for $450K (2400 SFT) in Jersey City. In good times similar ones are going for 700-750K
LOL! Great post. Tell Stu he’s right about the “full of sh*t” part. If I successfully lowball someone, you all would be the first to know. That latest tax increase notice just sealed the lid. For now, I’m just a spectator.
All in hearty agreement.
I’d go back to poser’s original question, however, and note that what s/he was asking was whether there is exposure in a 401(k) of the sort that there is in a DB plan (i.e., I have “earned” a $56K/yr-until-death benefit under my final average pay plan, but it turns out that the plan is grossly underfunded and my employer is bankrupt and I’m going to get precisely bupkus).
CHICAGO (MarketWatch) — When Denise Lopez bought two new tables, a floor lamp and a chair recently, her intent was to finance it with her home equity line of credit. But it wasn’t long before she discovered that wasn’t an option — her HELOC had been frozen.
The purchases for her West Palm Beach, Fla., condo were made initially on her American Express credit card, and she then wrote a check against her HELOC to cover them.
“Not only was I declined, but American Express charged me $35 for a check that bounced,” she says. She had a zero balance on the home equity line of credit when the transfer was attempted; she didn’t need to use the line, but said she chose to so she could keep the HELOC active.
Rich #48: In my town, they’re getting ready to spend a cool million on artificial turf for the sports fields, and a hundred and fifty grand to move the police dispatching to Paramus. It’s one-party rule, no opposition, no attention paid, no one cares. Except when they congregate in the middle of the street to bitch about property taxes.
Gary (84) - We feel your pain. We just got our tax court settlement judgement from Trenton and are now owed about 2 years worth of tax overpayments. We are not getting our 2008 money credited yet, because Montclair does not have an official 2008 tax rate yet. The only thing we do know is that our taxes will be going up AT LEAST 7.5%. Ouch!
Just keep the faith. Maybe one day we can buy side by side REOs in Short Hills.
Funny, I have been reading that consumers have been having trouble paying off their credit cards as they no longer can tap home equity. Only in America can you pay off a loan with another loan.
I don’t know if in 12 months there will be a bargain.
The houses I looked at this weekend some were rented by buyers who are renting while waiting for a bottom but they were rented from sellers who did not want to sell and are waiting for the market to come back. Both are holding tough. Weird Economics.
#81
lostinny
Yes, the seller is begging me to buy it for 450K. I am sitting on it to see if I should buy at that price. I have $800 per month maintanance(includes utilities) and the taxes come out to be $600 (1.5% of purchace price). All togather your expensies would be $32,000 (tax deductble mortgage and prop tax) and $10,000 non-tax deductble expenses. So if you live in the condo your cost of owning would be about $2500. But if you rent it you may get about $2600-3000 per month. But still it doesn’t cover your expenses as you can’t deduct the mortgage and taxes.
I heard on CNBC of talk of Dollar intervention. Well, Asia is already pegged and they have been buying our dollars for year and importing inflation through us.
ECB is asking it’s citizens to endure short term pain to fight inflation so it’s obvious that they will not help us.
Since we can’t count on any help from our friends, the only option would be for the Treasury to intervene unilaterally. However, the U.S. government should think twice about bringing a knife to a gunfight. The Treasury only has about $75 billion in foreign currency reserves with which to intervene. The war chest is just a spit in the ocean. To put this number in perspective, Poland has $77 billion, Turkey has $78 billion, and Libya has $79 billion. On the other end of the spectrum, China has $1.7 trillion (not counting Honk Kong’s 150 billion) Japan has $1 trillion, Russia has $550 billion, India and Taiwan each have about $300 billion. Singapore, a nation with fewer than 5 million people, has $175 billion. In fact, the United States holds just about 1% of the world’s $7.6 trillion of foreign currency reserves, and our total position amounts to just 2.5% of the total daily volume of foreign exchange trading. Talk about Bambi vs. Godzilla! In other words, if the dollar is going to fall, the Treasury is completely powerless to do anything to stop it.
TY for the expired price from yesterday. Had a feeling about that and I’m usually woefully wrong on my feelings, so it’s nice to know my feeling meter still works… :)
TY for the appraisal/assessment answer from yesterday.
Some other questions: How many months are you going back for comps on commercial?
and…
you wrote “the income method”…”as a 50/50 blend”… does this mean the income generated by the current occupant business? What if the building is empty or business not included?
Or did I misunderstand the
income method? <~most likely… I’m doing great this week :)
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Longer term U.S. Treasury bond yields have bottomed and will steadily rise because of inflation pressures in the aftermath of the ongoing U.S. economic downturn, the manager of the world’s biggest bond fund wrote on Monday. “Intermediate and long-term yields on government bonds have already bottomed and will gradually rise,” during the term of the next president, due to start in January, wrote Bill Gross, chief investment officer of Pacific Investment Management Co., or PIMCO, in his monthly “Investment Outlook” letter for July.
Last thread, NJP: Poser’s 401(k) safety question was adequately covered with responses by the time I jumped in this morning.
I didn’t need to expose PBGC premiums for the little protection they truly offer to pension (DB) plan participants. [Hey, I'm somebody who spent many moons working on post-RTC Meritor pension ...you don't need to convince me that pensions are not the golden ticket.]
But missing disclosure frameworks on DC plans was not adequately addressed. Just stating to someone that their 401(k) is safe because it’s an individual (assigned) account does not take into consideration other risk factors. So, of course, being the 401(k) reform freak that I am, I needed to rant.
Can I still post on this blog after we move to Maryland?
We found a 4/2.5 townhouse to rent for a while. Vulture owned, he bought it REO last month.
So much that we looked at was REO. Unbelievable. There’s at least a 30% wishing gap on all the short sale prices over the REO prices. This is in all the overbuilt towns anywhere near transportation to DC.
Here is a question for the agents, and please put aside your bias on this one.
We looked at a house where we were told the listing was expiring and the seller had decided not to renew and take it off the market until next year. We saw it on the last day of the active listing. We then made a verbal offer, which was countered (rejected). We did not pursue.
The house is now off the market and the selling agent. I did not feel the agents were particularly responsive (ours wanted us to buy her listing), and I am going to approach seller directly.
Question: If we are able to agree on something between ourselves, does the selling agent still have a claim for the commission? One thought is that we made an offer that was rejected so that ends their involvement. The opposing view is that we saw it under their auspices so any agreement relates back to the listing period.
Putting aside claims of fairness, I want to know what their rights are. In the end, we would present any agreement to the agents to handle (with the proviso that they take a lower commission), but knowing what their rights are is important.
If you go back than six months for comps, apply a deflator (perhaps 1- 1.5% a month). An appraiser sure will.
Even in a vacant building, you can project a realistic income statement, then apply the prevailing local capitalization rate to the anticipated net income.
Pat Says:
Can I still post on this blog after we move to Maryland?
May I ask what area you are moving to?
The wife and I spent a weekend in the DC area several months ago looking around. The wife loved Bethesda but its way more expensive than here so I said forget it. We then drove around NoVa and it was so overbuilt and congested that I said forget that too. On the way out, we drove near Gaithersburg and it seemed nicer but still pricey for what you get.
“Until things get this bad, enjoy the RE market, it is still strong in NJ.”
Frank– Don’t you see how this impacts the tri-state area RE? Think about it: how many Wall St jobs are being lost as a result of this disaster? How much tighter is credit now for those people who want to buy even in the middle of this calamity?
They may have a claim to commission, based upon the fact that you saw it during the listing period. No matter that you submitted an offer that didn’t go.
For how long is the agent protected? You’d need to know what the listing stipulates.
I owe bot of you e-mails, baby kettle was under the weather this weekend so i will get those out tonight.
Regarding NJ tax revolt. It wont happen until after the state has to declare bankruptcy. The “sea of wealth” image is to deeply ingrained, and all it takes is what about the children, or what about the criminals etc. and people pay up.
But look at the positive side. BC bob you and gary will get some phenomenal deals once the state is bankrupt and the “sea of wealth” image has been thoroughly dispelled.
Let me suggest that RE may be a great buy if inflation stays high. In 30 yrs, a $500,000 loan may be worth only about $120,000 if inflation averages 5% over that period. If we see 15-20% declines in the next couple of years on top of that, RE seems like it would be a very good deal
you go to the wrong parties. everyone I know is psyched that prices are coming down. I think there is generally right now a pretty high awareness that we are exiting a massive RE bubble. It just makes the sellers’ and agents’ denial seem that much more absurd.
“Putting aside claims of fairness, I want to know what their rights are.”
Clotpoll (who is pretty dang unbiased) may know some things I don’t, but I would say that, as a legal matter, the rights of the seller’s agent are whatever the contract between the seller and the agent says (or said) they are (or were), and if the contract doesn’t address the situation, then the agent has no such rights.
If i may be so bold, i am ready to make another prediction. I think that in any measurable term we are at the start of the next “great depression”. I doubt anyone will actually use that term, but if measurable terms suck a money , poverty, GDP, etc, it will be a depression. I think that we have hit the point of no return.
My general basis is that the lower class ( as in income and education) of the USA is currently crumbling. Most reports and sources i have read show that the lower class where on the brink to begin with and now that the economy is contracting while the dollar is devaluing and costs are going up ( everything from food to gas), they ave been pushed over the edge. These are people who will have to choose between paying for heating oil or paying the mortgage. They have no choice in the matter anymore.
The implications of this are wide spread. The lower class supports a significant portion of the US economy and where the lower class goes so does the rest.
While all of the wealthy attractive investment bankers will ride this out just fine, consider that 50% HALF OF THE ENTIRE USA makes less then 55,000/yr. recent polls show that these families making 50K and below are crumbling as they cannot absorb the increase in costs of heating gas and food all at the same time.
The reason this cannot be stopped at this point ( perhaps mitigated but not stopped) is that we do not have the industrial/production base that would allow us to begin to reverse our debtor nation trend, and the inflationary policy of the FED is wiping these people out. Its a catch 22. The current US debt will sink US unless we hop into bed with inflationary policy. but at the same time inflationary policy will kill (economically) half the US population..
This depression is what will be the end of suburbia.High gas prices alone will not do it. But the combination of high food/gas/energy prices combined with limited employment options locally, is the death of suburbia.
#122,
skep-tic, homes are still selling at rip-off prices in NJ, look at the comp-killers from yesterday. Except the home in Newark, most of them sold at fleece-me prices. As long as this continues, things are still goooooooooood in NJ.
We’ll be in a tiny town with a decent commute to Rockville. One of those Americana-type towns with the white porches and flags. So, we’re renting for a year until we can decide if we like it.
We found the town by taking a map and pinpointing schools (they have a really good Website) having elementary school test scores of at least 85% and having a diverse teacher mix of little/some/many years of experience. We eliminated schools that were too high in scores. I don’t need that kind of pressure, let alone Fonziegirl. She already bites her nails.
We drove around one weekend to see if I could stand the traffic around each school. Germantown, Rockville, Gaithersburg were all eliminated based on the traffic.
The bonus to the town we selected is that there’s a newer private school nearby where the kids wear uniforms. If the public school doesn’t work out (meaning they make fun of her because her Mom has no clue how to buy school clothes), we can move her.
The selling agent has a deal with the owner not you. You should approach directly, but the owner may have a period of time in his contract. If you are not in a rush you can just wait till the period of exclusivity expires and do you deal. Or since it will be hard for him to collect anyhow let the seller pay him less so he does not have to sue to get the full amount. That way you only screw the realtor a litle, kinda like throwing him a pillow so he doesn’t bang his head on the headboard.
Frank– transactions will never drop to zero. Accepting that, what is your definition of a down market? I would say (and most reasonably people would agree) that transactions being down 30-40% year-over-year (where we are currently) represents a very bearish market. Can you explain why you disagree?
Wow, today is a great opportunity for non-believer, suspicious types like me to test theories.
Pretorius, if you’re out there, respond. You were completely mistaken about Manhattan employment and I’m NOT posting a link. So there. Commercial real estate will drop by a lot over the next year and I’m not giving you a standard comparative or a specific percentage. So there.
Reinvestor, there are a whole lot of real estate terrorists here just waiting for you!!!
Thanks…that blows… adding in the cap rate, I mean.
Pffffffffffftht on that.
I have an idea though….the business that currently occupies/owns the bldg is in the toilet financially due to owner burn-out. And, as luck would have it, it’s the same exact type of business as ours. Same clients, same equipment, same yadayadayada… (And no, it’s not the MLS listing I asked about yesterday…this prop is not listed, never has been, it’s a private deal…) Anyhoo, can I require the appraisal to use *HIS* income statements as the cap rate basis? I mean, maybe it’s just a baaaaaaad location to do well…. ;>~
kettle1,
Stop with the armageddon predictions, we have heard it before and it’s not going to happen. NJ version of “great depression” will be when people start driving smaller cars.
#141,
Look at CA, AZ, NV and FL markets, prices are down 50-80% from 2005, that’s real decline. When homes are still selling for 7x median income, that’s a as good as it gets.
Why compare RE to hedge against inflation. Why not own Gold if you think inflation will increase. If inflation does go higher, it will be accompanied by higher unemployment. If you can’t rent out your home to cover your mortgage when you lose your job, then you are bankrupt anyways. So all this talk about RE a hedge against inflation is useless.
Pat #139: I was at a conference in Bethesda/Rockville last year (at the Marriott) and two years ago, so I know that main drag pretty well. It’s a nice area from what I could see. Don’t know much about schools or any of that, but the shopping/restaurants were good. Traffic, however, around DC at rush hour is a BEAR.
“skep-tic, homes are still selling at rip-off prices in NJ, look at the comp-killers from yesterday. Except the home in Newark, most of them sold at fleece-me prices”
I agree with that, to an extent. Which is why I believe that, despite the fact that NJ prices have already fallen arount 10% from peak, there will be an even more breathtaking plummet through the course of this year.
As the economy stalls, state and local governments will see less tax revenue roll in. Get ready for cuts in services
Not in NJ.
We will either borrow and/or raise taxes to fill the gap.
Who’s going to oppose this?
The unions and their legion of public employees?
Those who benefit from the welfare state?
Those who fear a cut in services will harm their already falling property values?
Those who think of high taxes like a badge of honor for the privilege of living amongst a sea of phony wealth?
Those who have become so fed up they no longer care?
Who is left to mount any kind of meaningful opposition?
Pat Says:
Germantown, Rockville, Gaithersburg were all eliminated based on the traffic.
You’ll be amazed how quickly it turns to mountains and country the farther west you go. I think that’s the main difference between DC and NY. We drove past Leesburg, VA on Route 15 over to Point of Rocks, MD and then back down on Route 28 in MD to DC. The scenery was breathtaking. I think the problem is most of the jobs are in DC or NoVa so everyone has to kill each other cramming into the same spot for work or live right there. Sugarland Run area in VA was a sea of rooftops as far as the eye could see (So much for Money magazing rating it best place to live)
I don’t think you will miss anything schoolwise moving there from Bucks county.
Mortgage insurers slump again
Defaults stayed high in May, Triad Guaranty cut to junk by Moody’s
By Alistair Barr, MarketWatch
Last update: 2:04 p.m. EDT June 30, 2008
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Mortgage insurers slumped again on Monday as an industry report confirmed that defaults remain high in the business.
Shares were also dented after mortgage insurer Triad Guaranty (TGIC
Triad Guaranty Inc MTG) fell 21% to $5.52, while PMI Group (PMI) dropped 16% to $1.97.
Mortgage Insurance Companies of America (MICA), an industry group, said on Monday there were 67,967 defaults in May. So-called cures, which measure problems that have been resolved, were 40,687 last month.
MICA reports data from MGIC, PMI, Triad and the mortgage insurance businesses of American International Group.
Data from April showed a big jump in defaults to 73,880, but that was partly because a major lender changed the way it reported delinquencies. The company, which wasn’t identified by MICA, had been under-reporting defaults before April.
MICA said last month that the jump in April defaults was a one-time adjustment. However, the May data, unveiled on Monday, suggests stress in the industry remains as house prices continue to slump.
In May 2007, there were 45,986 defaults. Because of the recent adjustment, May 2008 data is not directly comparable, but the report shows a 48% jump in defaults from a year earlier.
Mortgage insurance helps home buyers who don’t have enough money for a down-payment, which traditionally was 20% of the purchase price. As house prices have slumped rising defaults have sparked a surge in claims that have hit companies like MGIC and PMI hard.
Triad, a smaller rival to MGIC and PMI, was cut to junk status by Moody’s late Friday. The agency said the insurer didn’t have enough capital to support an investment-grade rating.
Triad said earlier in June that it would stop selling new policies and go into ‘run-off.” That means the insurer will keep paying any future claims until all policies have expired, then shut down.
Triad shares fell 5% to 96 cents. AIG shares fell 4.1% to $26.60 during afternoon trading. Genworth climbed nine cents to $18.06 and Old Republic slipped 2.8% to $11.88.
160 million new shares
MGIC said on Friday that shareholders approved an extra 160 million new shares to a maximum of 460 million. That sparked concern that the company may sell more shares to raise new capital.
“MGIC will continue to have significant charges for its mortgage market exposure,” Egan-Jones Ratings, an agency that’s paid by investors rather than issuers, said in a note to clients on Monday.
MGIC has $177 billion of insurance in force and roughly $28 billion is tied to subprime mortgages or home loans that were originated with little or no documentation of buyers’ income, the agency noted.
“A 20% loss on the subprime portion would eliminate book equity,” Egan-Jones warned.
Rival PMI Group won’t be able to raise capital on favorable terms to current shareholders in future, Kevin Cole, an analyst at Standard & Poor’s Equity Research, said in a note to investors on Monday. End of Story
Alistair Barr is a reporter for MarketWatch in San Francisco.
I have an overseas friend getting ready to buy a condo at 75 Wall in NYC. He told me between October when he first inquired and today, prices have increased 7%. I told him I was skeptical after reading that the market in Manhatten was showing signs of weakness and a number of the condo projects were being converted to rentals due to soft sales. My suspicion is an agent is trying to take advantage of a foreigner. Can anyone confirm whether condos downtown are seeing this kind of price appreciation? Would a buyer’s agent help? Thanks for any advice/observations.
Frank– by your standard, we are never in a bear market unless it is equivalent to the worst bear market of all time– is that about right?
We know you are fascinated by what is happening in Nevada and California, but let’s compare apples to apples. The NYC-metro market is in real and accelerating decline compared to a year ago. That is what we are talking about. Do you disagree?
“despite the fact that NJ prices have already fallen arount 10% from peak, there will be an even more breathtaking plummet through the course of this year.”
agreed. NYC area was late to the party, but is falling hard right now.
John 175: “great” as is size/caliber not quality…:( My family got shellacked during/after the great depression. My Dad still tells some wild stories about it.
#185
I wonder what they are going to do with their current portfolio of pay option arms. Fixed rate conversions at a nominal fee?
They don’t have a CEO, they don’t even have an idea of what to do with their own loan portfolio? This precisely why they asked Goldman to look into their junk and decide for them what to do.
They are our 4th largest bank and yet they don’t how to manage their loans. This is a good one. I bet BI is long on Wachovia.
“But…up thread you just finished saying that NJRE is incredibly overpriced.”
Exactly my point, for someone to buy a home at these outrageous prices in NJ, people must feel very good about their prospects going forward and they are making a statement. Where in CA they are saying economy is not doing too well and unless I get a huge discount I am not buying.
Gold actually isnt a great hedge against inflation. Gold is a good hedge against extremes, whether it be extreme deflation or extreme inflation ( i.e hyper inflation)
skep-tic Says:
June 30th, 2008 at 1:20 pm
Let me suggest that RE may be a great buy if inflation stays high. In 30 yrs, a $500,000 loan may be worth only about $120,000 if inflation averages 5% over that period. If we see 15-20% declines in the next couple of years on top of that, RE seems like it would be a very good deal
Inflation is high… the only problem is that salaries are rasing at 3% - whch means in real term people have LESS money… Most people in USA are getting their incomes from salaries…
So housing might be getting as better deal, but untill salaries start feeeling inflanatory pressure it is even more unaffordable!!!
And salaries are not rasing, due to cheap labor in thirld world countries/china/india.
Please pick one, for our edification, so we can have a baseline to work with. Also, please answer skeptic’s question at 173.
Thank you in advance for your time.
Pat Says:
June 30th, 2008 at 12:48 pm
Just stating to someone that their 401(k) is safe because it’s an individual (assigned) account does not take into consideration other risk factors. So, of course, being the 401(k) reform freak that I am, I needed to rant.
Pat: I forget my pension accounting from 25 years ago. Are DC plan assets even consolidated? I assume not, as there is one-to-one matching of assets and liabilities, and creditors of a firm cannot attach (not attack) to DC plan assets. Isn’t that the entire purpose of the master trust?
“This board sounds like bunch of RE agents crying about their sales prospects.”
To someone completely lacking in perception, perhaps it does.
To the rest of us, it sounds like a bunch of wolves laughing and rubbing their paws with glee as the sheep, too exhausted by running to and fro in a state of sheer panic, collapse in terrified and hopeless exhaustion.
frank what you see in NJ CA and everywhere else in consumption addiction. and like any other addiction, the more you do it the better you feel. but ultimately it is a hollow pursuit. You can cheer lead all you like, but until you can refute the basic underlying financials(i.e how can someone reasonably borrow 5-8X their annual income without being a significant default risk,, Banks no longer handing out free money) then your points are noting but the complaints of someone who has a vested interest in prices and consumption staying artificially inflated and is scared to death of what is to come.
The CA market’s price increase was much higher than NJ, hence the faster and steeper depreciation.
But what do you care, you “and your friends are still making money in RE in NJ and NYC”.
Which I find to be odd since you have no concrete information on pricing… where are you making these “deals”? What kind of increases are you making?
Pat will correct me where I’m wrong, and I don’t know that it is the entire purpose, but it is correct that creditors of the employer cannot attack the 401(k) assets.
June 30th, 2008 at 6:38 am
But now what do we do Forest?
June 30th, 2008 at 6:46 am
Oil Passes $143 this morning. Should be another great day for the market.
June 30th, 2008 at 6:56 am
Well earned!! Have a great day, hoping wifey is playing hookey too!
June 30th, 2008 at 7:02 am
Euro Zone Inflation Jumps to Record High 4%
http://www.cnbc.com/id/25452035
When the ECB raises rates, be careful not to be standing under any dollars.
June 30th, 2008 at 7:24 am
I sense a day of urban pentathlon on the scenic Hackensack…followed by a tasty lunch of bologna sandwiches and malt liquor.
June 30th, 2008 at 7:28 am
Totally deserved! Enjoy & stay well hydrated! :)
June 30th, 2008 at 7:30 am
Is JB closing on a RE deal today?
June 30th, 2008 at 7:31 am
Sell? Sell to whom?
http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2008/04/Hooper_securitization_apr_08.gif
June 30th, 2008 at 7:33 am
NY immune?
“STREET’S GLOOM”
“When you see a company like Goldman Sachs announcing layoffs you know things” have gotten bad, said John Challenger, CEO of the outplacement firm.”
http://www.nypost.com/seven/06292008/business/streets_gloom_117671.htm
June 30th, 2008 at 7:34 am
Can Obama/McCain also go on a 5 month sabbatical?
June 30th, 2008 at 7:39 am
Now that’s an excellent idea.
June 30th, 2008 at 7:40 am
http://biz.yahoo.com/law/080630/c18a6866be4580375021d281887c4af1.html?.v=1
Software Companies Allege Law Firm Misappropriated Mortgage Database
June 30th, 2008 at 7:42 am
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601102&sid=aAw8YxQisKYk
Hadrian’s Town Becomes `Slum’ as Subprime Infects North England
June 30th, 2008 at 7:43 am
#10 BC
Hopefully they can take GW, Cheney, and the rest of the charlatans in DC with them.
June 30th, 2008 at 7:45 am
NEIGHBORHOODS BEAR THE BRUNT
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/06/29/AR2008062901785.html
June 30th, 2008 at 7:49 am
Pat [13],
Maybe some of the townies should check out this site;
http://timesbusiness.typepad.com/money_weblog/2008/06/fifty-great-thi.html
June 30th, 2008 at 7:56 am
A new record!!
Gas prices hit all time high.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/30/news/economy/gas/index.htm?cnn=yes
Congrats to all who made this record possible, especially GW, Congress, Greenspin, and Bergabe.
June 30th, 2008 at 7:58 am
If you’re reading this before Tuesday, you have to take an extra day off in punishment for not resting!
Take care of yourself. Love this blog.
June 30th, 2008 at 8:05 am
I think I should play hooky, too.
June 30th, 2008 at 8:05 am
But, I can’t afford to drive anywhere.
June 30th, 2008 at 8:07 am
Bob (10),
That’s a fantastic idea!
And when it comes to politics maybe bi, jamil and others can do the same?
June 30th, 2008 at 8:08 am
“I think I should play hooky, too.”
Clot,
Modus operandi? No.
June 30th, 2008 at 8:08 am
Latest on the Mugabe watch. You gotta admit, he’s persistent and consistent:
http://tinyurl.com/3nmj6j
June 30th, 2008 at 8:11 am
I wish I could have played hookey today.
Have a great day Grim!
June 30th, 2008 at 8:12 am
I recall someone using the resilient housing market in Britain as a comparison to ours when they had that bounce in sales and prices. Oh well.
From MarketWatch
British May mortgage approvals at all-time low
British lenders approved only 42,000 mortgages in May, falling from a paltry 58,000 in April, the Bank of England reported Monday.
The figure was the lowest since the statistical series began in 1999.
The data were “yet another sign that the U.K. housing market is in free fall,” wrote Michael Saunders, chief U.K. economist at Citi. “With consumer confidence plunging, a major period of consumer retrenchment is likely.”
June 30th, 2008 at 8:16 am
Stu and I are playing hookey for the week down in LBI.
June 30th, 2008 at 8:17 am
Rich [21],
Actually, what I meant to say; There should be a sabbatical regarding Obama/McCain talk on this blog, for the next 5 months. If one is compelled to discuss, take it off line. Maybe JB can get creative, come up with something similar to an off balance sheet siv., link it to some other crap.
Cindy McCain’s taxes, Obama’s birth certificate?? I’d rather read Bi’s investment strategy. At least you know you’ll make $, if you take the other side of the trade.
June 30th, 2008 at 8:21 am
Fortis expects within the next few days to weeks to complete the collapse of the US financial markets. That explains the bank insurers interventions of the series Thursday at dealing with 8 Billion Euors. “We are ready at the last minute. It goes in the United States much worse than thought”, said Fortis Chairman Maurice Lippens, who maintains that CEO Votron to live. Fortis expects bankruptcies among 6000 US banks that now lack coverage. “But Citigroup, General Motors, there begins a complete meltdown in the United States”
http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewarticle+articleid_2348586~title_Stock-Market-Summary–.html
June 30th, 2008 at 8:21 am
Anyone read “Trillion $ Meltdown - Morris?
I have it on the way - from the review “To restore credibility Morris says “American officials and financial leaders must forthrightly admit the scale of the problem and proceed to purge the absurd valuations, the phony triple-A ratings, the inflated balance sheets, and the hidden liabilities that are marbled through financial balance sheets.”
Credibility and financial balance sheets - now there are two words I haven’t seen in the same sentence in quite some time.
I’ll check back if it’s a good read.
June 30th, 2008 at 8:22 am
27 BC,
…with apologies to whoever…
I agree!!
sl
June 30th, 2008 at 8:22 am
Bob (27),
Now that you spelled it out for them (well, and me) maybe they’ll take heed.
What scares me is bi predicted the stock market would bounce back either Friday or today. If he’s off by +$100 on oil… maybe today IS a good day to draw the blinds and play hookey.
June 30th, 2008 at 8:27 am
From Bloomberg
Stock, Bond Slumps Signal Worse Than ‘94 on Inflation
It’s been 14 years since investors suffered as big a retreat in stocks and bonds and some of the largest money managers say the losses may have more in common with the 1974 bear market before the worst is over.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropped 3.4 percent since March and investors in Treasuries lost 2.88 percent, the steepest combined plunge in 14 years, according to data compiled by Merrill Lynch & Co. and Bloomberg. Equity and debt markets fell in tandem for only the sixth time since the savings and loan crisis of the 1990s as oil closed at a record 19 times and concern grew that inflation will cut the value of bond payments.
…
The drop in the Dow to its lowest level since September 2006 is part of a “secular bear market” that may last 10 to 15 years as home prices fall, consumers default and tighter credit slows economic growth, says Ryan Atkinson of Balestra Capital Ltd., which manages $550 million including last year’s fourth-best performing U.S. hedge fund and is wagering equities will fall.
“The vast majority of investors are long-only investors and they would like nothing more than for stocks to always move to the upside,” said Atkinson after the Dow came within 15 points of a 20 percent retreat from its October record. “History shows we have bull markets and we have bear markets, and this is a bear market. That’s what they’re missing.”
June 30th, 2008 at 8:28 am
Good for you Jim, but I hope your not reading it… get away .. go stop.
Found this interesting since I was just mentioning this to my kids. I was explaining inflation, how last year it was obvious I was spending more for the same groceries and I know this because I do on line shopping, and buy the same items at costco. Well 2-3 weeks ago was when I noticed it’s not a gallon of Ice cream anymore, I can fit more cereal boxes on the same shelf, its no longer a gallon of water. I’m glad food manufacturers had my storing convenience in mind when giving me less food for the money.
http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1818761,00.html?xid=rss-topstories
KL
June 30th, 2008 at 8:28 am
Renting [28],
The XLF scare the dickens out of me. A total rout of RE is probably just scratching the surface. Those storm clouds, which we have discussed, over the past couple of years are in perfect alingment. You can cut the tension with a knife.
June 30th, 2008 at 8:30 am
More on that HOT British housing market…
From Bloomberg
Taylor to Raise Funds in Share Sale to Avoid Default
Taylor Wimpey Plc, reeling from the worst U.K. housing slump in 30 years, will write down 660 million pounds ($1.3 billion) of real estate and plans to raise cash from investors after falling home sales depleted capital.
June 30th, 2008 at 8:35 am
Went house hunting this weekend. Man the sellers are still nutso. Saw a house for 1.2 million with paint peeling, roof falling apart, pool with a toxic mess that hasn’t been open in year, extentions cords all over place because of broken outlets, non working doors and missing COs all over the place and did I forget non working 1970s appliances in the kitchen and three pink bathrooms. Kids got their 85 year old parents to give up house after four years of trying and they are pricing it based on what a builder would have gave them in 2006 who was going to gut and rebuild. Builder of course no longer wants it and builder did not know about all the CO issues. I give up. Rolling bonds today for another one to two years and will try again in 2010. With closed end single state funds paying 5% and short term munis at 4% who needs real estate.
June 30th, 2008 at 8:37 am
http://www.mlsli.com/unidetailsredo.CFM?MLNum=2081860&typeprop=1&start=1&rpp=10
here is house I look at. Worse in person
June 30th, 2008 at 8:37 am
John,
Every time you post a url from that site you get an error message
June 30th, 2008 at 8:38 am
property listing doesn’t come up
June 30th, 2008 at 8:46 am
X-U
At the home page, enter 2081860 in the MLS search box in the top right.
Two acres…
June 30th, 2008 at 8:49 am
Want 60% off your mortgage balance? talk to Indy Mac.
“The Indy Mac performing loan sale that was reported to have been done at about 60% of asking price has fallen apart. Most of the bids at the 60% level were withdrawn after further due diligence. The actual prices the stuff went for is between 20% and 45%. By the way Indy Mac had current appraisals supporting their asking price.”
http://blog.metro-real-estate.com/?p=637
June 30th, 2008 at 8:56 am
Until things get this bad, enjoy the RE market, it is still strong in NJ.
“The Real Estate Nightmare I Found In Las Vegas
It’s Friday night about 8:00 and I just returned from the IMN Distressed Real Estate Conference in Las Vegas. I want to give you some initial impressions this evening, basically just a skeleton outline and over the weekend and probably into next week I will try and add some flesh to these bones.
As a preamble, I attended an IMN Conference at the end of May 2007. That one was also real estate oriented and approached the subject from the standpoint of pools of capital dedicated to real estate investment. It couldn’t have been a more upbeat conference. There were a lot of fund managers who left you with the impression that they were well on their way to controlling a better part of the real estate assets of the country. So high was the confidence level that the buzz around the meeting rooms was all about getting into foreign markets. Today it seems like that wasn’t a year ago but more like I am living on a different planet.
In no particular order here is a synopsis of this year’s conference:
1. No one has any idea when we will reach a bottom simply because no one knows how many classes of real estate are going down. The most optimistic guess was 2010 but most wouldn’t even hazard a guess. Some of the grey hairs think 5 or 6 years.
2. The problems in the residential side are quickly spilling over to the commercial real estate market.
3. The spread between bid and asked prices is as large as the Grand Canyon. Banks and particularly the community banks can’t afford to take the write-downs the bid price implies.
4. Aside from say multi-family and really solid income producing properties (producing solid verifiable income now, not projected income) there is no debt available. There is lots of equity looking for 20% and up returns. Since these will have to be largely unleveraged, the asset price required to deliver the return is abysmally low. Further driving down implied valuations is the fact that the equity is Wall Street money with 3 to 5 year time horizons. No one thought that was achievable (with the exception of the Wall Street boys in the audience, of course).
5. The complicated capital stacks of the past are history. Simplicity is in and you can kiss non-recourse goodbye.
6. Builder lots are selling for improvement cost or less. Basically, the land is free. There is no debt available and the volume of transactions is approaching zero.
7. Small and mid-level banks are in trouble. So are the big boys but the govies will take care of them? Several of the deal guys said that banks they contacted three months ago about buying assets are all of a sudden calling back. Three months ago they said everything was fine. The idea du jour is to buy the bank to get the bank’s real estate. Sounds screwy to me but I’ll write some more about this one tomorrow.
8. Most think this is a credit driven problem, not a supply problem which was the case in 1991. They think the crunch is really going to start hitting when commercial loans mature and need refinancing. Unlike 1991 there is lots of equity on the sidelines which is a good thing. The bad difference from 1991 is that we got into this mess with a good economy not a recession. So if the economy goes south it could get real rough.
9. Banks have been rewriting their loans and creating new interest reserves to keep the Zombies alive. The regulators have said full stop.
10. The big buzz word is “value added” as in look at my Excel spread sheet and how it shows us increasing rents and occupancy and how much money we will make with which to pay you back. Most of the fund providers aren’t buying.
11. Underwriting is getting tougher and tougher. As one participant said,” …if you have financing take it and close the deal NOW.”
12. Mezzanine is going to be important as the level of available senior debt in the capital stack shrinks. Most Mezz lenders now only going up to 85%. They are also adjusting any appraisals by five to ten percent.
13. Lot prices in the hardest hit areas are back to 2000 to 2001 levels.
14. There is an absolute disconnect on valuations among buyers, sellers, senior debt, mezzanine and equity. Thus no deals are coming together.
15. Appraisals are good for no more than a month as values are deteriorating so rapidly. Some felt that the appraisers were only picking up sales comps and missing the comps that could be derived from note sales. Basically, no one trusts appraisals.
16. The Indy Mac performing loan sale that was reported to have been done at about 60% of asking price has fallen apart. Most of the bids at the 60% level were withdrawn after further due diligence. The actual prices the stuff went for is between 20% and 45%. By the way Indy Mac had current appraisals supporting their asking price.
17. The Wall Street Wizards are proving to be particularly inept at working out real estate problems. Essentially, they don’t know anything about operating real estate. On top of that, many of the banks don’t have expertise so there seem to be a lot of bad decisions going down (much more about this later).
18. Things are going downhill so fast that deals that were struck 3 months ago need to be restructured.
19. Finally, the conference concluded with a representative from the Fed and one from the Office of Thrift Supervision. They dodged, weaved and evaded the hard issues. My take, reading between the lines, is that they are scared to death. Again, I will expand on this in the next couple of days.
We went to this conference, frankly hoping to meet some people and start networking to possibly pick up some assets on the cheap. We did this back in the early 1990’s and it worked out well. We were shocked by what we heard. This is not just a problem with residential real estate. It is a problem with every class of real estate. There are one or two positives that may help lead us out of the situation but, so far, I think that the looming negatives may overwhelm everything.
It is no time to be buying.”
http://blog.metro-real-estate.com/?p=637
June 30th, 2008 at 8:58 am
“It is the budget the people of New Jersey demanded.”
http://www.mycentraljersey.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080626/NEWS/806260350
June 30th, 2008 at 8:59 am
#36 John: A lot of selers still in denial. But a couple more months of what we have been witnessing, should finally open their eyes.
If we see anything we like, we will bid accordingly. All they can say is no.
Meanwhile attened quite a few parties this past weekend. Lots of nervousness about the economy etc.
Absolutely no talk abou real estate, none. What a change from 2005/06.
June 30th, 2008 at 8:59 am
From # 41. Ouch and Yikes.
“The spread between bid and asked prices is as large as the Grand Canyon. Banks and particularly the community banks can’t afford to take the write-downs the bid price implies.”
“Finally, the conference concluded with a representative from the Fed and one from the Office of Thrift Supervision. They dodged, weaved and evaded the hard issues. My take, reading between the lines, is that they are scared to death.”[Edit: I would also have been s**tting in my pants]
June 30th, 2008 at 9:01 am
N.J. towns mobilizing against new housing rule, citing tax hikes
Municipal governments throughout New Jersey are preparing to fight a series of new affordable-housing rules that, they say, will force steep hikes in property taxes, already the highest in the nation.
“I don’t think a lot of towns realize what’s hit them yet,” said David Sandahl, a committeeman in Hopewell Township. He is helping spearhead one of the legal challenges, and more than 100 towns have signed on.
===
Their discontent is focused on a 1-2 punch from state government. In the spring, new rules approved by the New Jersey Council on Affordable Housing greatly increased the amount of low-cost housing that towns are required to build. Then, on Monday, the state Senate approved a sweeping housing bill that, among other things, restricted how much money towns can collect to fulfill those obligations.
Taken in tandem, municipal officials say, the new measures will cost towns $6 billion to $7 billion over the next 10 years, giving them no choice but to boost taxes.
June 30th, 2008 at 9:01 am
“Until things get this bad, enjoy the RE market, it is still strong in NJ.”
Frank,
You dolt, I am enjoying it, on the sidelines.
June 30th, 2008 at 9:02 am
From The Star-Ledger
Corzine is ready to ink $32.9B spending plan
Gov. Jon Corzine is expected today to sign a $32.9 billion state spending plan he calls “truly unprecedented” because it eliminates nearly $600 million from the previous year’s outlays.
Now it’s up to the counties and municipalities to figure out how to do with less. Or… they could always raise taxes.
June 30th, 2008 at 9:03 am
#42 frank: If it makes you feel better frank OK, if you say so.
Yes, NJ is immune to all of this, becasue we are close to NYC, which is getting slammed with Wall St job losses.
Yeah it makes perfect sense, because for so long we have been told we are immune to any real estate down turn becasue of our proximity to NYC.
And meanwhile in NJ, we are not creating any new high paying jobs, but frank says real estate is still hot here.
June 30th, 2008 at 9:05 am
$32.9 billion state spending plan he calls “truly unprecedented” because it eliminates nearly $600 million from the previous year’s outlays.
Yes, a 1.8% reduction is truly an unprecedented achievement.
June 30th, 2008 at 9:08 am
Until things get this bad, enjoy the RE market, it is still strong in NJ.
What?
You posted a blog comment that lays out an opinion of a horrible, national RE market and all you get from it is that NJ is immune right now?
June 30th, 2008 at 9:10 am
Rich [51],
He has his head in the sand, [being kind], missing all of your comp killers.
June 30th, 2008 at 9:13 am
#51 Rich: he just needs to go to a few parties in NJ, to see how the mood regarding real estate (and the rest of the economy for that matter), has utterly changed.
June 30th, 2008 at 9:16 am
“Corzine is ready to ink $32.9B spending plan”
Why not just raise taxes? Suckers will pay anyway.
June 30th, 2008 at 9:21 am
Frank #42 - You do realize don’t you that while the conference was IN Las Vegas, it pertains to RE all over the US, including New Jersey?
June 30th, 2008 at 9:22 am
54#, frank, by this bill, raising tax is one the way, see my post #43. it will be transftered to municipalities.
now i have problem with big city mayors: why are you so happy when you have been raped?
June 30th, 2008 at 9:22 am
Ooops, Rich beat me to it.
June 30th, 2008 at 9:24 am
lisoosh [55],
Frank doesn’t realize that “I and my friends” are getting hammered.
June 30th, 2008 at 9:28 am
Why not just raise taxes? Suckers will pay anyway.
Yup, it’s a slam dunk, no doubt about it. How there is not an absolute revolution in this state is beyond me. The cost of living here is approaching off-the-chart status and the idi*ts continue to follow whatever their neighbors and friends do…. blindly.
BTW, we’ve decided we are not going to try to trade up to another house. That’s it… we’re done. We’ll fix up what we have and call it a day. Still seeing $600,000 and $12,000+ in taxes for “nothing” homes. Good luck, I’m f*cking finished with it.
June 30th, 2008 at 9:30 am
Gary,
But you’re still going to make commetns on the NJRE market, RIGHT?!
June 30th, 2008 at 9:31 am
This is kind of funny:
HSBC may repossess own head office
Andrew Leach, Mail on Sunday
29 June 2008, 11:36am
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/investing-and-markets/article.html?in_article_id=444068&in_page_id=3
“HSBC is believed to have approached potential buyers for its skyscraper head office in London’s Canary Wharf amid fears it might have to repossess the building from the Spanish property group that paid a record £1.1bn for it last year.
Metrovacesa, Spain’s largest property company, is trying to refinance the £810m of short-term debt it took out with HSBC to buy 8 Canada Square, in what was Britain’s biggest single building sale.”
June 30th, 2008 at 9:37 am
“Good luck, I’m f*cking finished with it.”
Gary,
Come on, I’m just starting to shop for a new pair of boots. I thought you would help me pick them out?
By the way, didn’t you say the same when Eli was picked off 4 times against the Vikings?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PpSFExhRdBA
June 30th, 2008 at 9:42 am
NJ keeps voting for higher taxes, more unions and more government spending, so who cares that you don’t agree with it, in a democracy, majority rules, so suck it up and pay or move to NC.
June 30th, 2008 at 9:43 am
Rich,
The RE industry and the sellers are a scream! I see the words, “according to the NAR” and I laugh hysterically. It’s like watching the fat kid slip on the banana peel in the lunch room at school. You laugh so hard the milk comes out of your nose. The whole thing is hilarious! Not the people losing their homes but the sellers asking these prices like they expect to hit the lottery and the realtors trying to convince someone to fall for it. “Buy now are be priced out forever!” It’s a punchline. As long as the sellers and the RE industry continue to do stand up, I’ll continue to laugh.
June 30th, 2008 at 9:47 am
BC Bob,
I only hated the kid until the next game! :) I’ll gladly help you pick the boots out but I’m done. If I really see vultures picking at body parts on the side of the road in a few years, I might reconsider. I’ve already spoken to a carpenter to consider re-doing the baths. I wasn’t going to, but we’re done. We’ve had it.
June 30th, 2008 at 9:48 am
Gary
You are throwing the towel in too early.
June 30th, 2008 at 9:50 am
lost [66],
I have been trying to tell him the same. However, I am beating myself, over the head, with Gary’s 2×4.
June 30th, 2008 at 9:54 am
lost,
The taxes alone are absolutely insane. Mine are rising about 7% per year. When we bought in 2001, it was approx. $5700. I just got another notice and they’re now at approx. $8300. That’s for a cape on a 50 X 100 lot.
June 30th, 2008 at 9:55 am
With July 4th signaling the end of the spring season, do realtors actively push their clients to lower prices?
June 30th, 2008 at 9:57 am
#68 gary,
Come on, that’s only $1.65 per sq ft for your lot. It’s like getting your house tax free!!!
June 30th, 2008 at 9:57 am
I was looking at a bank owned home listed on GSMLS. It went on the market a few weeks ago and now over the weekend, the remarks were changed to “No more showings”.
Does this mean that the have received enough offers and/or accepted an offer? Why would it still be listed then?
June 30th, 2008 at 10:03 am
BC
That’s no fun.
June 30th, 2008 at 10:04 am
Gary
I completely understand that. Taxes are crazy everywhere in NJ, some places worse then others. So are you saying even if prices come down the way some hope/expect them too, houses will still be unaffordable beacuse of the taxes?
June 30th, 2008 at 10:06 am
frank Says:
June 30th, 2008 at 8:56 am
Until things get this bad, enjoy the RE market, it is still strong in NJ.
frank: Are you Frankie T. of “Delivered Vacant” fame?
June 30th, 2008 at 10:07 am
#74 Maybe he is franklyn raines?
June 30th, 2008 at 10:09 am
I am cousin of Joe Mama.
June 30th, 2008 at 10:10 am
I see some seller capitulation just starting. I negatiated down a condo for $450K (2400 SFT) in Jersey City. In good times similar ones are going for 700-750K
June 30th, 2008 at 10:10 am
#64 Gary
Remember the true meaning of “Real Estate is Local”. It is local to you, it is what you want from it.
Everyone is looking for different things in real estate. I am a big fan of “Sweat Equity” so take a sledgehammer to those bathrooms.
June 30th, 2008 at 10:11 am
BTW same condo was selling for 300K in 1998. So do you guys think it is all right to pay 450K? Mine is a full cash offer.
June 30th, 2008 at 10:12 am
Chi/Bairen,
I think Frank is his last name. First name, Barney.
June 30th, 2008 at 10:13 am
70 Ven
Were there any updates?
June 30th, 2008 at 10:14 am
#59 - How there is not an absolute revolution in this state is beyond me.
I completely agree with you on this one. Just how far can people be pushed until they snap back? It’s not just the state either.
June 30th, 2008 at 10:16 am
Gary - Stu does not believe you. He says you are full of S$*t and will keep looking.
If it makes you feel better, we pay over $12k in taxes for our outdated 2 family place so your cape is actually a ‘deal’.
Have some faith. we are all looking forward to the day you successfully lowball a house listed by the snobbiest realtor in all of North Caldwell.
June 30th, 2008 at 10:27 am
NJGator,
LOL! Great post. Tell Stu he’s right about the “full of sh*t” part. If I successfully lowball someone, you all would be the first to know. That latest tax increase notice just sealed the lid. For now, I’m just a spectator.
June 30th, 2008 at 10:29 am
147 Pat (last thread)
All in hearty agreement.
I’d go back to poser’s original question, however, and note that what s/he was asking was whether there is exposure in a 401(k) of the sort that there is in a DB plan (i.e., I have “earned” a $56K/yr-until-death benefit under my final average pay plan, but it turns out that the plan is grossly underfunded and my employer is bankrupt and I’m going to get precisely bupkus).
June 30th, 2008 at 10:30 am
PGC [78],
You’re right… I want to sleep at night. Why should I consider funding someone’s retirement and pray a disaster doesn’t occur?
June 30th, 2008 at 10:34 am
52 BC
“He has his head in the sand”
and he’s sitting on the sand.
June 30th, 2008 at 10:35 am
Freeze tag
CHICAGO (MarketWatch) — When Denise Lopez bought two new tables, a floor lamp and a chair recently, her intent was to finance it with her home equity line of credit. But it wasn’t long before she discovered that wasn’t an option — her HELOC had been frozen.
The purchases for her West Palm Beach, Fla., condo were made initially on her American Express credit card, and she then wrote a check against her HELOC to cover them.
“Not only was I declined, but American Express charged me $35 for a check that bounced,” she says. She had a zero balance on the home equity line of credit when the transfer was attempted; she didn’t need to use the line, but said she chose to so she could keep the HELOC active.
June 30th, 2008 at 10:35 am
More on the rate cuts;
http://gallery.mac.com/scopix#100055&view=mosaic&sel=75
June 30th, 2008 at 10:37 am
“and he’s sitting on the sand.’
njp,
I knew that was coming.
June 30th, 2008 at 10:39 am
Rich #48: In my town, they’re getting ready to spend a cool million on artificial turf for the sports fields, and a hundred and fifty grand to move the police dispatching to Paramus. It’s one-party rule, no opposition, no attention paid, no one cares. Except when they congregate in the middle of the street to bitch about property taxes.
June 30th, 2008 at 10:43 am
Businessweek Article,
The Housing Abyss
June 30th, 2008 at 10:46 am
Gary (84) - We feel your pain. We just got our tax court settlement judgement from Trenton and are now owed about 2 years worth of tax overpayments. We are not getting our 2008 money credited yet, because Montclair does not have an official 2008 tax rate yet. The only thing we do know is that our taxes will be going up AT LEAST 7.5%. Ouch!
Just keep the faith. Maybe one day we can buy side by side REOs in Short Hills.
June 30th, 2008 at 10:48 am
#65 gary: As lisoosh says, you really are throwing in the towel too early. Everything is falling into place.
Why not go out and throw bids in on houses you are interested in. All they can do is say no.
I truly believe that within the next 12 months, you will be more than successful. I would hold off on the carpenters.
June 30th, 2008 at 10:49 am
Funny, I have been reading that consumers have been having trouble paying off their credit cards as they no longer can tap home equity. Only in America can you pay off a loan with another loan.
June 30th, 2008 at 10:51 am
I don’t know if in 12 months there will be a bargain.
The houses I looked at this weekend some were rented by buyers who are renting while waiting for a bottom but they were rented from sellers who did not want to sell and are waiting for the market to come back. Both are holding tough. Weird Economics.
June 30th, 2008 at 10:54 am
Talking about taxes, this is currently the lead story on businessweek.com:
The Next Victim of the Real Estate Crisis
As the economy stalls, state and local governments will see less tax revenue roll in. Get ready for cuts in services
More at: http://www.businessweek.com/lifestyle/content/jun2008/bw20080627_320852.htm?chan=top+news_top+news+index_top+story
June 30th, 2008 at 10:55 am
#81
lostinny
Yes, the seller is begging me to buy it for 450K. I am sitting on it to see if I should buy at that price. I have $800 per month maintanance(includes utilities) and the taxes come out to be $600 (1.5% of purchace price). All togather your expensies would be $32,000 (tax deductble mortgage and prop tax) and $10,000 non-tax deductble expenses. So if you live in the condo your cost of owning would be about $2500. But if you rent it you may get about $2600-3000 per month. But still it doesn’t cover your expenses as you can’t deduct the mortgage and taxes.
June 30th, 2008 at 10:55 am
#96 I don’t know if in 12 months there will be a bargain.
There will be bargains. Guaranteed.
June 30th, 2008 at 11:00 am
#93 NJGator
“Just keep the faith. Maybe one day we can buy side by side REOs in Short Hills.”
I have a plan to divorce Mrs PGC to allow her to qualify for a nice COAH house in Short Hills, we could be neighbors.
June 30th, 2008 at 11:22 am
I heard on CNBC of talk of Dollar intervention. Well, Asia is already pegged and they have been buying our dollars for year and importing inflation through us.
ECB is asking it’s citizens to endure short term pain to fight inflation so it’s obvious that they will not help us.
Since we can’t count on any help from our friends, the only option would be for the Treasury to intervene unilaterally. However, the U.S. government should think twice about bringing a knife to a gunfight. The Treasury only has about $75 billion in foreign currency reserves with which to intervene. The war chest is just a spit in the ocean. To put this number in perspective, Poland has $77 billion, Turkey has $78 billion, and Libya has $79 billion. On the other end of the spectrum, China has $1.7 trillion (not counting Honk Kong’s 150 billion) Japan has $1 trillion, Russia has $550 billion, India and Taiwan each have about $300 billion. Singapore, a nation with fewer than 5 million people, has $175 billion. In fact, the United States holds just about 1% of the world’s $7.6 trillion of foreign currency reserves, and our total position amounts to just 2.5% of the total daily volume of foreign exchange trading. Talk about Bambi vs. Godzilla! In other words, if the dollar is going to fall, the Treasury is completely powerless to do anything to stop it.
June 30th, 2008 at 11:23 am
100 PGC - I think that’s great. We should all move in en masse. The look on Graydon and Ellery’s parents’ faces would be priceless.
June 30th, 2008 at 11:28 am
Grim,
Have a great day off…well deserved.
TY for the expired price from yesterday. Had a feeling about that and I’m usually woefully wrong on my feelings, so it’s nice to know my feeling meter still works… :)
June 30th, 2008 at 11:33 am
Clot,
TY for the appraisal/assessment answer from yesterday.
Some other questions: How many months are you going back for comps on commercial?
and…
you wrote “the income method”…”as a 50/50 blend”… does this mean the income generated by the current occupant business? What if the building is empty or business not included?
Or did I misunderstand the
income method? <~most likely… I’m doing great this week :)
June 30th, 2008 at 11:59 am
Site posts foreclosure addresses for free
ForeclosurePoint provides data on filings in 35 states
http://www.inman.com/news/2008/06/27/site-posts-foreclosure-addresses-free
June 30th, 2008 at 12:00 pm
1930s-style collapse haunts economy
Commentary: Why near-term rate increases are unlikely
http://www.inman.com/buyers-sellers/columnists/loubarnes/1930s-style-collapse-haunts-economy
June 30th, 2008 at 12:08 pm
Pimco’s Gross says another stimulus jolt needed
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Longer term U.S. Treasury bond yields have bottomed and will steadily rise because of inflation pressures in the aftermath of the ongoing U.S. economic downturn, the manager of the world’s biggest bond fund wrote on Monday. “Intermediate and long-term yields on government bonds have already bottomed and will gradually rise,” during the term of the next president, due to start in January, wrote Bill Gross, chief investment officer of Pacific Investment Management Co., or PIMCO, in his monthly “Investment Outlook” letter for July.
June 30th, 2008 at 12:19 pm
“Pimco’s Gross says another stimulus jolt needed”
Jolt? More like a 9 on the Richter scale. Come to think of it, why doesn’t the fed just accept all consumer debt at the window? Start anew.
June 30th, 2008 at 12:22 pm
#108 BC Bob,
I like that idea the best. Why should only FBs and overleveraged banks get rewarded? I want to play too!!
June 30th, 2008 at 12:42 pm
#108 (BC),
Hyperinflation will do just that. I belive I’ll pay off all my mortgages selling Euro’s and Gold for pennies on the dollar.
The mistake they’re making is assuming that they can control inflation.
It’s like a wild fire once it starts spreading get out of the way or burn.
June 30th, 2008 at 12:43 pm
Any truth to the rumor that Goldman was selling puts, Euro Stoxx 50, today?
“Buy `Crash Protection’ Puts on European Stocks, Goldman Says”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ahmkboBVHNeg&refer=home
June 30th, 2008 at 12:46 pm
“The mistake they’re making is assuming that they can control inflation.”
make,
They have a better chance of controlling Lindsay Lohan at an open bar.
June 30th, 2008 at 12:47 pm
gary (65)-
Repeat after me:
“Real estate markets are slow-moving and illiquid.”
This thing hasn’t even gotten going yet.
June 30th, 2008 at 12:48 pm
Last thread, NJP: Poser’s 401(k) safety question was adequately covered with responses by the time I jumped in this morning.
I didn’t need to expose PBGC premiums for the little protection they truly offer to pension (DB) plan participants. [Hey, I'm somebody who spent many moons working on post-RTC Meritor pension ...you don't need to convince me that pensions are not the golden ticket.]
But missing disclosure frameworks on DC plans was not adequately addressed. Just stating to someone that their 401(k) is safe because it’s an individual (assigned) account does not take into consideration other risk factors. So, of course, being the 401(k) reform freak that I am, I needed to rant.
June 30th, 2008 at 12:51 pm
BC (80)-
Frank, first name.
Second name, Furter.
June 30th, 2008 at 12:53 pm
Can I still post on this blog after we move to Maryland?
We found a 4/2.5 townhouse to rent for a while. Vulture owned, he bought it REO last month.
So much that we looked at was REO. Unbelievable. There’s at least a 30% wishing gap on all the short sale prices over the REO prices. This is in all the overbuilt towns anywhere near transportation to DC.
June 30th, 2008 at 12:57 pm
Here is a question for the agents, and please put aside your bias on this one.
We looked at a house where we were told the listing was expiring and the seller had decided not to renew and take it off the market until next year. We saw it on the last day of the active listing. We then made a verbal offer, which was countered (rejected). We did not pursue.
The house is now off the market and the selling agent. I did not feel the agents were particularly responsive (ours wanted us to buy her listing), and I am going to approach seller directly.
Question: If we are able to agree on something between ourselves, does the selling agent still have a claim for the commission? One thought is that we made an offer that was rejected so that ends their involvement. The opposing view is that we saw it under their auspices so any agreement relates back to the listing period.
Putting aside claims of fairness, I want to know what their rights are. In the end, we would present any agreement to the agents to handle (with the proviso that they take a lower commission), but knowing what their rights are is important.
Thanks in advance.
June 30th, 2008 at 12:59 pm
114 pat
“But missing disclosure frameworks on DC plans was not adequately addressed.”
Fair enough - you’ve got the expertise to do it and I don’t.
June 30th, 2008 at 1:00 pm
spam (104)-
If you go back than six months for comps, apply a deflator (perhaps 1- 1.5% a month). An appraiser sure will.
Even in a vacant building, you can project a realistic income statement, then apply the prevailing local capitalization rate to the anticipated net income.
Note my use of the word, “realistic”.
June 30th, 2008 at 1:00 pm
115 clot
I thought the second name was Lymydearidontgiveadamn.
June 30th, 2008 at 1:01 pm
Pat Says:
Can I still post on this blog after we move to Maryland?
May I ask what area you are moving to?
The wife and I spent a weekend in the DC area several months ago looking around. The wife loved Bethesda but its way more expensive than here so I said forget it. We then drove around NoVa and it was so overbuilt and congested that I said forget that too. On the way out, we drove near Gaithersburg and it seemed nicer but still pricey for what you get.
June 30th, 2008 at 1:03 pm
#42
“Until things get this bad, enjoy the RE market, it is still strong in NJ.”
Frank– Don’t you see how this impacts the tri-state area RE? Think about it: how many Wall St jobs are being lost as a result of this disaster? How much tighter is credit now for those people who want to buy even in the middle of this calamity?
June 30th, 2008 at 1:05 pm
shark (117)-
They may have a claim to commission, based upon the fact that you saw it during the listing period. No matter that you submitted an offer that didn’t go.
For how long is the agent protected? You’d need to know what the listing stipulates.
June 30th, 2008 at 1:16 pm
BC, Bairen
I owe bot of you e-mails, baby kettle was under the weather this weekend so i will get those out tonight.
Regarding NJ tax revolt. It wont happen until after the state has to declare bankruptcy. The “sea of wealth” image is to deeply ingrained, and all it takes is what about the children, or what about the criminals etc. and people pay up.
But look at the positive side. BC bob you and gary will get some phenomenal deals once the state is bankrupt and the “sea of wealth” image has been thoroughly dispelled.
June 30th, 2008 at 1:20 pm
Let me suggest that RE may be a great buy if inflation stays high. In 30 yrs, a $500,000 loan may be worth only about $120,000 if inflation averages 5% over that period. If we see 15-20% declines in the next couple of years on top of that, RE seems like it would be a very good deal
June 30th, 2008 at 1:22 pm
124# kettle1
sea of wealth is really ocean of debt.
Too bad 99% of the population doesn’t know that yet.
June 30th, 2008 at 1:22 pm
Pat
“Can I still post on this blog after we move to Maryland?”
I think anyone who is or has been a regular here has a right, nay, an OBLIGATION, to continue posting until this RE Bubble has run its course.
Speaking of which - where’s pretorius?
June 30th, 2008 at 1:23 pm
126 bairen
Right.
Every time I hear the phrase “sea of wealth,” I wonder why everyone threw their wealth into the sea.
June 30th, 2008 at 1:25 pm
Not sure if this has been linked up yet, but …
http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/features/2008/08/bear_stearns200808?printable=true¤tPage=all
great piece on the fall of Bear Sterns
June 30th, 2008 at 1:26 pm
hey kettle - when you get a moment can you please throw up a link to your blog?
Thanks.
June 30th, 2008 at 1:27 pm
128# njp
Because they are wet behind the ears?
Up the creek without a paddle?
Seafood lovers?
June 30th, 2008 at 1:34 pm
#127 njpatient: I think the RE bubble has run its course. It is the clean up mode that we are in now.
The mood at parties I attended this past weekend was grim, to say the least.
June 30th, 2008 at 1:39 pm
#132
you go to the wrong parties. everyone I know is psyched that prices are coming down. I think there is generally right now a pretty high awareness that we are exiting a massive RE bubble. It just makes the sellers’ and agents’ denial seem that much more absurd.
June 30th, 2008 at 1:41 pm
shark
“Putting aside claims of fairness, I want to know what their rights are.”
Clotpoll (who is pretty dang unbiased) may know some things I don’t, but I would say that, as a legal matter, the rights of the seller’s agent are whatever the contract between the seller and the agent says (or said) they are (or were), and if the contract doesn’t address the situation, then the agent has no such rights.
June 30th, 2008 at 1:41 pm
If i may be so bold, i am ready to make another prediction. I think that in any measurable term we are at the start of the next “great depression”. I doubt anyone will actually use that term, but if measurable terms suck a money , poverty, GDP, etc, it will be a depression. I think that we have hit the point of no return.
My general basis is that the lower class ( as in income and education) of the USA is currently crumbling. Most reports and sources i have read show that the lower class where on the brink to begin with and now that the economy is contracting while the dollar is devaluing and costs are going up ( everything from food to gas), they ave been pushed over the edge. These are people who will have to choose between paying for heating oil or paying the mortgage. They have no choice in the matter anymore.
The implications of this are wide spread. The lower class supports a significant portion of the US economy and where the lower class goes so does the rest.
While all of the wealthy attractive investment bankers will ride this out just fine, consider that 50% HALF OF THE ENTIRE USA makes less then 55,000/yr. recent polls show that these families making 50K and below are crumbling as they cannot absorb the increase in costs of heating gas and food all at the same time.
The reason this cannot be stopped at this point ( perhaps mitigated but not stopped) is that we do not have the industrial/production base that would allow us to begin to reverse our debtor nation trend, and the inflationary policy of the FED is wiping these people out. Its a catch 22. The current US debt will sink US unless we hop into bed with inflationary policy. but at the same time inflationary policy will kill (economically) half the US population..
This depression is what will be the end of suburbia.High gas prices alone will not do it. But the combination of high food/gas/energy prices combined with limited employment options locally, is the death of suburbia.
Cheers!
June 30th, 2008 at 1:42 pm
#122,
skep-tic, homes are still selling at rip-off prices in NJ, look at the comp-killers from yesterday. Except the home in Newark, most of them sold at fleece-me prices. As long as this continues, things are still goooooooooood in NJ.
June 30th, 2008 at 1:42 pm
Unacceptable.
Couldn’t you take a blog sabbatical on July 4th?
-R
June 30th, 2008 at 1:43 pm
MBIA will record a pretax loss of $300 million on the sale of securities, the company said today
didn’t they say this weekend it was at a profit?
June 30th, 2008 at 1:44 pm
x-underwear, we’re moving to Montgomery County.
We’ll be in a tiny town with a decent commute to Rockville. One of those Americana-type towns with the white porches and flags. So, we’re renting for a year until we can decide if we like it.
We found the town by taking a map and pinpointing schools (they have a really good Website) having elementary school test scores of at least 85% and having a diverse teacher mix of little/some/many years of experience. We eliminated schools that were too high in scores. I don’t need that kind of pressure, let alone Fonziegirl. She already bites her nails.
We drove around one weekend to see if I could stand the traffic around each school. Germantown, Rockville, Gaithersburg were all eliminated based on the traffic.
The bonus to the town we selected is that there’s a newer private school nearby where the kids wear uniforms. If the public school doesn’t work out (meaning they make fun of her because her Mom has no clue how to buy school clothes), we can move her.
June 30th, 2008 at 1:48 pm
The selling agent has a deal with the owner not you. You should approach directly, but the owner may have a period of time in his contract. If you are not in a rush you can just wait till the period of exclusivity expires and do you deal. Or since it will be hard for him to collect anyhow let the seller pay him less so he does not have to sue to get the full amount. That way you only screw the realtor a litle, kinda like throwing him a pillow so he doesn’t bang his head on the headboard.
June 30th, 2008 at 1:49 pm
#136
Frank– transactions will never drop to zero. Accepting that, what is your definition of a down market? I would say (and most reasonably people would agree) that transactions being down 30-40% year-over-year (where we are currently) represents a very bearish market. Can you explain why you disagree?
June 30th, 2008 at 1:49 pm
“…where’s pretorius?”
Wow, today is a great opportunity for non-believer, suspicious types like me to test theories.
Pretorius, if you’re out there, respond. You were completely mistaken about Manhattan employment and I’m NOT posting a link. So there. Commercial real estate will drop by a lot over the next year and I’m not giving you a standard comparative or a specific percentage. So there.
Reinvestor, there are a whole lot of real estate terrorists here just waiting for you!!!
….O.K. let’s see if anybody responds today.
June 30th, 2008 at 1:51 pm
119 : clot
Thanks…that blows… adding in the cap rate, I mean.
Pffffffffffftht on that.
I have an idea though….the business that currently occupies/owns the bldg is in the toilet financially due to owner burn-out. And, as luck would have it, it’s the same exact type of business as ours. Same clients, same equipment, same yadayadayada… (And no, it’s not the MLS listing I asked about yesterday…this prop is not listed, never has been, it’s a private deal…) Anyhoo, can I require the appraisal to use *HIS* income statements as the cap rate basis? I mean, maybe it’s just a baaaaaaad location to do well…. ;>~
June 30th, 2008 at 1:51 pm
kettle1,
Stop with the armageddon predictions, we have heard it before and it’s not going to happen. NJ version of “great depression” will be when people start driving smaller cars.
June 30th, 2008 at 1:52 pm
Bogota Comp Killer!
182 CYPRESS AVE
Sold: $360,000 12/20/2004
MLS#: 2824104
OLP: $399,900 6/13/2008
Sold: $290,000 6/27/2008
June 30th, 2008 at 1:53 pm
#141,
Look at CA, AZ, NV and FL markets, prices are down 50-80% from 2005, that’s real decline. When homes are still selling for 7x median income, that’s a as good as it gets.
June 30th, 2008 at 1:54 pm
#125
Why compare RE to hedge against inflation. Why not own Gold if you think inflation will increase. If inflation does go higher, it will be accompanied by higher unemployment. If you can’t rent out your home to cover your mortgage when you lose your job, then you are bankrupt anyways. So all this talk about RE a hedge against inflation is useless.
June 30th, 2008 at 1:55 pm
What’s going on with Lehman today?
June 30th, 2008 at 1:55 pm
Pat #139: I was at a conference in Bethesda/Rockville last year (at the Marriott) and two years ago, so I know that main drag pretty well. It’s a nice area from what I could see. Don’t know much about schools or any of that, but the shopping/restaurants were good. Traffic, however, around DC at rush hour is a BEAR.
June 30th, 2008 at 1:56 pm
Fair Lawn Comp Killer!
95 BLUE HILL AVE
Sold: $425,000 9/15/2005
MLS#: 2811101
OLP: $418,500 3/19/2008
Sold: $401,000 6/27/2008
June 30th, 2008 at 1:57 pm
NJP
http://www.maldream.blogspot.com
June 30th, 2008 at 2:01 pm
136 frank
“skep-tic, homes are still selling at rip-off prices in NJ, look at the comp-killers from yesterday. Except the home in Newark, most of them sold at fleece-me prices”
I agree with that, to an extent. Which is why I believe that, despite the fact that NJ prices have already fallen arount 10% from peak, there will be an even more breathtaking plummet through the course of this year.
June 30th, 2008 at 2:03 pm
142 Pat
Hee!!!!!
June 30th, 2008 at 2:04 pm
Once again I find myself in broad agreement with Apocalypse Boy.
June 30th, 2008 at 2:05 pm
144 frank
“NJ version of “great depression” will be when people start driving smaller cars.”
SUV sales are down 38% in the past year. Next?
June 30th, 2008 at 2:09 pm
“SUV sales are down 38% in the past year.”
I said, driving not buying, next?
June 30th, 2008 at 2:11 pm
Bergenfield FUTURE Comp Killer!
52 N GLENWOOD DR
Sold: $362,000 11/30/2005
MLS#: 2800209
OLP: $375,000 8/8/2006
LLP: $314,900 6/30/2008
June 30th, 2008 at 2:11 pm
As the economy stalls, state and local governments will see less tax revenue roll in. Get ready for cuts in services
Not in NJ.
We will either borrow and/or raise taxes to fill the gap.
Who’s going to oppose this?
The unions and their legion of public employees?
Those who benefit from the welfare state?
Those who fear a cut in services will harm their already falling property values?
Those who think of high taxes like a badge of honor for the privilege of living amongst a sea of phony wealth?
Those who have become so fed up they no longer care?
Who is left to mount any kind of meaningful opposition?
June 30th, 2008 at 2:13 pm
Bogota FUTURE Comp Killer!
380 LEONIA AVE
Sold: $545,000 6/16/2006
Current MLS#: 2810527
OLP: $575,000 8/17/2007
LLP: $419,000 6/29/2008
June 30th, 2008 at 2:14 pm
#133 skeptic: The parties that we attend are all attended by other homeowners. We were the freaks that sold.
We are not the freaks any more.
June 30th, 2008 at 2:15 pm
Pat Says:
Germantown, Rockville, Gaithersburg were all eliminated based on the traffic.
You’ll be amazed how quickly it turns to mountains and country the farther west you go. I think that’s the main difference between DC and NY. We drove past Leesburg, VA on Route 15 over to Point of Rocks, MD and then back down on Route 28 in MD to DC. The scenery was breathtaking. I think the problem is most of the jobs are in DC or NoVa so everyone has to kill each other cramming into the same spot for work or live right there. Sugarland Run area in VA was a sea of rooftops as far as the eye could see (So much for Money magazing rating it best place to live)
I don’t think you will miss anything schoolwise moving there from Bucks county.
June 30th, 2008 at 2:16 pm
Englewood FUTURE Comp Killer!
256 LIBERTY RD
Sold: $400,000 11/16/2005
MLS#: 2824309
OLP: $369,000 6/16/2008
LLP: $309,000 6/30/2008
June 30th, 2008 at 2:17 pm
#136 frank: How about all the houses that are NOT selling, that is more indicative, than a few selling here and there, which is just noise.
You cannot have it both ways kid.
June 30th, 2008 at 2:17 pm
Hot off the press at Marketwatch.com:
Mortgage insurers slump again
Defaults stayed high in May, Triad Guaranty cut to junk by Moody’s
By Alistair Barr, MarketWatch
Last update: 2:04 p.m. EDT June 30, 2008
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Mortgage insurers slumped again on Monday as an industry report confirmed that defaults remain high in the business.
Shares were also dented after mortgage insurer Triad Guaranty (TGIC
Triad Guaranty Inc MTG) fell 21% to $5.52, while PMI Group (PMI) dropped 16% to $1.97.
Mortgage Insurance Companies of America (MICA), an industry group, said on Monday there were 67,967 defaults in May. So-called cures, which measure problems that have been resolved, were 40,687 last month.
MICA reports data from MGIC, PMI, Triad and the mortgage insurance businesses of American International Group.
Data from April showed a big jump in defaults to 73,880, but that was partly because a major lender changed the way it reported delinquencies. The company, which wasn’t identified by MICA, had been under-reporting defaults before April.
MICA said last month that the jump in April defaults was a one-time adjustment. However, the May data, unveiled on Monday, suggests stress in the industry remains as house prices continue to slump.
In May 2007, there were 45,986 defaults. Because of the recent adjustment, May 2008 data is not directly comparable, but the report shows a 48% jump in defaults from a year earlier.
Mortgage insurance helps home buyers who don’t have enough money for a down-payment, which traditionally was 20% of the purchase price. As house prices have slumped rising defaults have sparked a surge in claims that have hit companies like MGIC and PMI hard.
Triad, a smaller rival to MGIC and PMI, was cut to junk status by Moody’s late Friday. The agency said the insurer didn’t have enough capital to support an investment-grade rating.
Triad said earlier in June that it would stop selling new policies and go into ‘run-off.” That means the insurer will keep paying any future claims until all policies have expired, then shut down.
Triad shares fell 5% to 96 cents. AIG shares fell 4.1% to $26.60 during afternoon trading. Genworth climbed nine cents to $18.06 and Old Republic slipped 2.8% to $11.88.
160 million new shares
MGIC said on Friday that shareholders approved an extra 160 million new shares to a maximum of 460 million. That sparked concern that the company may sell more shares to raise new capital.
“MGIC will continue to have significant charges for its mortgage market exposure,” Egan-Jones Ratings, an agency that’s paid by investors rather than issuers, said in a note to clients on Monday.
MGIC has $177 billion of insurance in force and roughly $28 billion is tied to subprime mortgages or home loans that were originated with little or no documentation of buyers’ income, the agency noted.
“A 20% loss on the subprime portion would eliminate book equity,” Egan-Jones warned.
Rival PMI Group won’t be able to raise capital on favorable terms to current shareholders in future, Kevin Cole, an analyst at Standard & Poor’s Equity Research, said in a note to investors on Monday. End of Story
Alistair Barr is a reporter for MarketWatch in San Francisco.
June 30th, 2008 at 2:18 pm
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aAw8YxQisKYk&refer=home
this will be NJ in three years
June 30th, 2008 at 2:19 pm
#144 frankie boy: It is already happening. You need to get more.
June 30th, 2008 at 2:20 pm
Now how can this be, it’s only been 2 1/2 months in this “hot” NJ market
Glen Rock FUTURE Comp Killer!
116 THORNBURY AVE
Sold: $675,000 4/23/2008
MLS#: 2821317
OLP: $699,000 5/25/2008
LLP: $669,000 6/30/2008
June 30th, 2008 at 2:21 pm
#145 Rich:Sold: $290,000 6/27/2008
2002/03 pricing?
June 30th, 2008 at 2:22 pm
todays market indicates oil peaked? i see it at these in short term (6 months).
June 30th, 2008 at 2:24 pm
#159 Rich: Who would have ever paid 545k in Bogota?
June 30th, 2008 at 2:29 pm
“todays market indicates oil peaked? i see it at these in short term (6 months)”
Anybody, interpretation?
June 30th, 2008 at 2:29 pm
I have an overseas friend getting ready to buy a condo at 75 Wall in NYC. He told me between October when he first inquired and today, prices have increased 7%. I told him I was skeptical after reading that the market in Manhatten was showing signs of weakness and a number of the condo projects were being converted to rentals due to soft sales. My suspicion is an agent is trying to take advantage of a foreigner. Can anyone confirm whether condos downtown are seeing this kind of price appreciation? Would a buyer’s agent help? Thanks for any advice/observations.
June 30th, 2008 at 2:33 pm
#146
Frank– by your standard, we are never in a bear market unless it is equivalent to the worst bear market of all time– is that about right?
We know you are fascinated by what is happening in Nevada and California, but let’s compare apples to apples. The NYC-metro market is in real and accelerating decline compared to a year ago. That is what we are talking about. Do you disagree?
June 30th, 2008 at 2:37 pm
ABK ($1.23 -23%) just because of russell rebalance? down from $88 of 52 week high.
June 30th, 2008 at 2:38 pm
“great depression” is such an oxymoron, what was so great about it anyhow?
June 30th, 2008 at 2:39 pm
#115 clot: does that make him a “hotdog?”
and… I thought his surname was “Enstein!”
lisoosh: finally catching up with a gazillion posts, Hope to get to say “hi” to you at a GTG too! (sorry for the lateness)
I think anyone who buys a house should be required to host a blog GTG :-) Of course in a BYOB and covered dish format though.
sl
June 30th, 2008 at 2:39 pm
#152
“despite the fact that NJ prices have already fallen arount 10% from peak, there will be an even more breathtaking plummet through the course of this year.”
agreed. NYC area was late to the party, but is falling hard right now.
June 30th, 2008 at 2:41 pm
John 175: “great” as is size/caliber not quality…:( My family got shellacked during/after the great depression. My Dad still tells some wild stories about it.
sl
June 30th, 2008 at 2:41 pm
re: above
is=in
sl
June 30th, 2008 at 2:45 pm
#173,
We can talk all we want but the bottom line is that you can still make money in NJ RE, rest of the country is another story.
June 30th, 2008 at 2:47 pm
frank,
i called oil at $150+ this year and approach $200.
then again a broken clock is right twice a day!
June 30th, 2008 at 2:48 pm
john 175
my history may be a little fuzzy, but didnt the rockafellers and a few other do pretty well when it was all said and done
June 30th, 2008 at 2:48 pm
My vote for the next gtg is a bus tour.
June 30th, 2008 at 2:49 pm
[176] Still,
Was thinking just that. And if I do buy, I may host the fall GTG.
That way, Patient can come over and drink all my scotch.
Barien has to stay away from my wife and daughter though, after all that polygamist talk.
June 30th, 2008 at 2:50 pm
Wachovia stopped originating Option ARMs - TODAY
It took them that long to figure it out. WOW.
June 30th, 2008 at 2:52 pm
“It took them that long to figure it out. WOW.”
[185],
Not surprising. Look at how it’s taking you to get a sniff.
June 30th, 2008 at 3:01 pm
#185
I wonder what they are going to do with their current portfolio of pay option arms. Fixed rate conversions at a nominal fee?
June 30th, 2008 at 3:07 pm
#185
I wonder what they are going to do with their current portfolio of pay option arms. Fixed rate conversions at a nominal fee?
They don’t have a CEO, they don’t even have an idea of what to do with their own loan portfolio? This precisely why they asked Goldman to look into their junk and decide for them what to do.
They are our 4th largest bank and yet they don’t how to manage their loans. This is a good one. I bet BI is long on Wachovia.
June 30th, 2008 at 3:12 pm
…and there goes Charlotte’s market defying appreciating real estate.
June 30th, 2008 at 3:12 pm
frank
““SUV sales are down 38% in the past year.”
I said, driving not buying, next?”
You’re kidding right?
You come across like a child.
June 30th, 2008 at 3:13 pm
188 make
“I wonder what they are going to do with their current portfolio of pay option arms. ”
Selling them to folks like frank who think everything is fine.
June 30th, 2008 at 3:14 pm
shark
“That way, Patient can come over and drink all my scotch.”
wheeeeeee!
June 30th, 2008 at 3:15 pm
Check out this data for Manhattan market:
http://www.urbandigs.com/charts3.html
click on the 6 month chart. Looks like there was a 1 month selling season in April.
1 month charge in contracts signed is down 89.94%.
June 30th, 2008 at 3:16 pm
180 frank
“We can talk all we want but the bottom line is that you can still make money in NJ RE”
But…up thread you just finished saying that NJRE is incredibly overpriced.
Sounds like you could lose money.
I take it you’re buying in NJ right now, though, or do you only expect other people to follow your advice??
June 30th, 2008 at 3:18 pm
while its financial news is still readable, i feel bloomberg political news become pro-libral recently. anybody feels the same?
June 30th, 2008 at 3:20 pm
“You come across like a child.”
njp,
Please don’t insult our children.
June 30th, 2008 at 3:21 pm
173 skep
I’m guessing frank won’t give you an answer to that question.
There’s only one answer, and it’s decidedly inconvenient.
June 30th, 2008 at 3:21 pm
BC Bob
Good point. I’m rightfully corrected.
June 30th, 2008 at 3:22 pm
195 bi
“anybody feels the same?”
No.
This has been another edition of Easy Answers To Easy Questions.
June 30th, 2008 at 3:22 pm
“i feel bloomberg political news become pro-libral recently.”
bi,
You missed the memo. That talk is now diverted off the NJRER balance sheet. Please take it to the appropriate site.
June 30th, 2008 at 3:22 pm
while its yodels are still palatable, i feel drakes’ cakes become dry recently. anybody feels the same?
June 30th, 2008 at 3:23 pm
171 BC Bob
“Anybody, interpretation?”
Not on your life. It’s as if someone brought Casey Stengel back to life.
June 30th, 2008 at 3:24 pm
199, 200 & 201,
Different response, same meaning. Excellent.
June 30th, 2008 at 3:24 pm
201 Rich
“anybody feels the same?”
Ever since it stopped to being including the baseball cardds within it’s packagifying, I have stooped buying them.
June 30th, 2008 at 3:27 pm
Currently on CNN/Money: “Energy’s easiest fix: Use less”
Does this mean I can go back to bed??
June 30th, 2008 at 3:27 pm
“But…up thread you just finished saying that NJRE is incredibly overpriced.”
njp,
If Frank was a pitcher he would be 15-15. An era of 1.09 when he won and 9.72 when he lost. If he was a trader, he would only trade straddles.
June 30th, 2008 at 3:34 pm
“But…up thread you just finished saying that NJRE is incredibly overpriced.”
Exactly my point, for someone to buy a home at these outrageous prices in NJ, people must feel very good about their prospects going forward and they are making a statement. Where in CA they are saying economy is not doing too well and unless I get a huge discount I am not buying.
June 30th, 2008 at 3:34 pm
#190 njpatient:You come across like a child.
Or dare I say an ididot.
June 30th, 2008 at 3:38 pm
Zack 147,
Gold actually isnt a great hedge against inflation. Gold is a good hedge against extremes, whether it be extreme deflation or extreme inflation ( i.e hyper inflation)
June 30th, 2008 at 3:39 pm
skep-tic Says:
June 30th, 2008 at 1:20 pm
Let me suggest that RE may be a great buy if inflation stays high. In 30 yrs, a $500,000 loan may be worth only about $120,000 if inflation averages 5% over that period. If we see 15-20% declines in the next couple of years on top of that, RE seems like it would be a very good deal
Inflation is high… the only problem is that salaries are rasing at 3% - whch means in real term people have LESS money… Most people in USA are getting their incomes from salaries…
So housing might be getting as better deal, but untill salaries start feeeling inflanatory pressure it is even more unaffordable!!!
And salaries are not rasing, due to cheap labor in thirld world countries/china/india.
June 30th, 2008 at 3:39 pm
“people must feel very good about their prospects going forward and they are making a statement.”
Frank,
Go pull up Grim’s charts; sales/inventory. Are you auditioning for a spot on the Career Builder commercial?
June 30th, 2008 at 3:40 pm
This board sounds like bunch of RE agents crying about their sales prospects. Go out and make some sales instead of blogging.
June 30th, 2008 at 3:40 pm
frank
RE prices in NJ are currently:
A) Rising
B) Falling
C) Staying the same
Please pick one, for our edification, so we can have a baseline to work with. Also, please answer skeptic’s question at 173.
Thank you in advance for your time.
June 30th, 2008 at 3:41 pm
Pat Says:
June 30th, 2008 at 12:48 pm
Just stating to someone that their 401(k) is safe because it’s an individual (assigned) account does not take into consideration other risk factors. So, of course, being the 401(k) reform freak that I am, I needed to rant.
Pat: I forget my pension accounting from 25 years ago. Are DC plan assets even consolidated? I assume not, as there is one-to-one matching of assets and liabilities, and creditors of a firm cannot attach (not attack) to DC plan assets. Isn’t that the entire purpose of the master trust?
June 30th, 2008 at 3:44 pm
212 frank
“This board sounds like bunch of RE agents crying about their sales prospects.”
To someone completely lacking in perception, perhaps it does.
To the rest of us, it sounds like a bunch of wolves laughing and rubbing their paws with glee as the sheep, too exhausted by running to and fro in a state of sheer panic, collapse in terrified and hopeless exhaustion.
Maybe your just hearing the dinner bell.
Good time, pal, good times.
June 30th, 2008 at 3:44 pm
you’re
June 30th, 2008 at 3:45 pm
frank what you see in NJ CA and everywhere else in consumption addiction. and like any other addiction, the more you do it the better you feel. but ultimately it is a hollow pursuit. You can cheer lead all you like, but until you can refute the basic underlying financials(i.e how can someone reasonably borrow 5-8X their annual income without being a significant default risk,, Banks no longer handing out free money) then your points are noting but the complaints of someone who has a vested interest in prices and consumption staying artificially inflated and is scared to death of what is to come.
June 30th, 2008 at 3:45 pm
Frank,
The CA market’s price increase was much higher than NJ, hence the faster and steeper depreciation.
But what do you care, you “and your friends are still making money in RE in NJ and NYC”.
Which I find to be odd since you have no concrete information on pricing… where are you making these “deals”? What kind of increases are you making?
June 30th, 2008 at 3:46 pm
214 chi
Pat will correct me where I’m wrong, and I don’t know that it is the entire purpose, but it is correct that creditors of the employer cannot attack the 401(k) assets.
June 30th, 2008 at 3:47 pm
#180
“We can talk all we want but the bottom line is that you can still make money in NJ RE, rest of the country is another story.”
so are you buying?
June 30th, 2008 at 3:48 pm
It is the end of the world as we know it!!!
Two Bedroom Two.5 bath mint condition 72nd street apt near central park for sale DISTRESS SALE.
Hey must mean we are getting near a bottom.
http://www.maltzauctions.com/auction_detail.php?ID=386556
June 30th, 2008 at 3:48 pm
207 frank
So your position is that the fact that an item is overpriced is an indication that it will increase in price.
Logic; dear me, what do they teach them in these schools.
June 30th, 2008 at 3:48 pm
frank = the new Reinv101
sl
June 30th, 2008 at 3:49 pm
#173,
“The NYC-metro market is in real and accelerating decline compared to a year ago. That is what