Wed 2 Jul 2008
From Newsday:
Poll finds New Jerseyans glum about economy
New Jerseyans aren’t feeling especially festive with the Fourth of July holiday approaching. A new poll finds them increasingly worried about their finances.
The survey by Fairleigh Dickinson University’s Silberman College of Business and conducted by the university’s PublicMind poll center found 54 percent of New Jerseyans think they’re worse off financially than they were a year ago. That’s up from 48 percent in March and 41 percent in January.
Just one in five say they are better off financially than a year ago.
“This is the first time in the six years in which we’ve taken this measure that a majority of people say their condition has worsened,” said James Almeida, associate dean of the Silberman College of Business and a professor of entrepreneurship.
People are also less optimistic about the future. Just 34 percent think they’ll be better off a year from now.
“People who are otherwise confident of their personal financial standing are seeing negative indicators about the economy in general, and that makes them less sure of their own prospects for the future,” Almeida said.
The poll found younger people more optimistic about their future than older respondents, with 57 percent of those age 30 and under saying they’ll be better off a year from now, compared to 21 percent of those 60 and over.
The poll found 46 percent are using their federal economic stimulus checks to pay bills, with 23 percent saving it and 20 percent spending it.
“Middle-aged folks are using it to reduce debt,” Almeida said. “It’s a rational response to the perceived economic uncertainty.”
Though pessimistic about the economy, only 24 percent are somewhat or very worried that they might lose their job in the next 12 months.
July 2nd, 2008 at 6:10 am
From CNN/Money:
Manhattan real estate starts to soften
Even the lofty Manhattan real estate market is beginning to soften, according to reports released Wednesday by four of the city’s top real estate agencies.
Data from this year’s second quarter indicate two divergent trends; on a year-over-year basis, the volume of sales is down, while at the same time the average home price is rising.
“The constant bombardment of negative news every day is weighing on people’s psyche,” said Pamela Liebman, CEO and President of the Corcoran Group. Buyers “are looking for either real quality or real value and anything in between is suffering - the ordinary is not enough,” she added. That explains the sales slowdown.
…
Sales figures vary from agency to agency, but all report that volume is down significantly. Second quarter sales were down 38% from the same quarter a year ago according to the Corcoran report, which was put together in collaboration with PropertyShark.com. Sales were down 21.8% on a year-over-year basis, according to Prudential Douglas Elliman, and down 18% according to Brown Harris Stevens. Halstead saw a dip of 14%.
July 2nd, 2008 at 6:11 am
From the NY Times:
Deepening Cycle of Job Loss Seen Lasting Into ’09
As automakers dropped their latest batch of awful sales numbers on the market on Tuesday, reinforcing the gloom spreading across the economy, the troubles confronting American workers seemed to intensify.
Plummeting home prices have in recent months eliminated jobs for hundreds of thousands of people, from bankers and real estate agents to construction workers and furniture manufacturers. Tighter lending standards imposed by banks in the wake of huge mortgage losses have made it hard for many Americans to secure credit — the lifeblood of expansion in recent years — crimping the appetite of consumers, whose spending amounts to 70 percent of the economy.
Joblessness has accelerated, and employers have slashed working hours even for those on their payrolls, shrinking the size of paychecks just as workers need them the most.
…
Among economists, the sense is broadening that the troubles dogging the economy will be stubborn, leaving in place an uncomfortable combination of tight credit and scant job opportunities perhaps well into next year.
July 2nd, 2008 at 6:25 am
Mayor: End of RCAs ‘a disaster’ for Mid’town
Scharfenberger will work with other towns on plan of action
BY JAMIE ROMM Staff Writer
Middletown Mayor Gerard Scharfenberger reacted strongly this week to the passage of legislation that spells an end to the township’s use of Regional Contribution Agreements (RCA) to help fulfill its affordable housing obligation.
“I just don’t see where we are going to place these homes,” Scharfenberger said Monday. “It’s a 4-to-1 ratio of homes to affordable housing, which means we’d have to build an additional 8,000 homes just to satisfy our obligation. It’s going to place a burden on our town.”
“As far as Red Bank is concerned, it’s [RCAs] been a good thing,” Gurzo said. “The three RCAs that we’ve had in the past years have helped to benefit Red Bank.”
July 2nd, 2008 at 6:28 am
Towns concerned about COAH change
By Maria Prato-Gaines, Staff Writer
Agreements that would allow Monroe and Cranbury to shift some of their state-mandated affordable housing obligation to Perth Amboy could be in limbo if Gov. Jon S. Corzine signs legislation amending the state Fair Housing Act.
Cranbury is estimating that, under the most recently proposed third-round rules, it will need to build 469 affordable housing units — 309 more than under earlier versions of the rules. Monroe officials have not estimated the township’s obligation under the new rules.
Sen. Bill Baroni, a Republican who represents Cranbury and Monroe, voted against the bill at least in part because he hoped legislators would amend it to change the formula used to determine how many units new warehouse construction would generate. He said the current proposal — which sets 1.5 jobs per 1,000 square feet of warehouse space and one unit per 16 jobs — was too high. Cranbury is surveying local warehouses to determine what it believes is a more accurate figure.
July 2nd, 2008 at 6:30 am
Grim remember the farm house up by me with the case of bud light in the pics. Went off came back on new pics no interior ones. I have to get inside just to see.
Gsmls at 3811 this morn , all is well Frank.
I think they raised the price wasn’t it 210 before now 225, # 2542974 gsmls, Grim am I just remembering wrong?
July 2nd, 2008 at 6:30 am
Court Victory Gives Builders a Boost
The ruling overturns costly land-use fees, but an appeal is likely
By Martin C. Daks
Beleaguered homebuilders got some good news last week from an unlikely source: the Appellate Division of New Jersey’s Superior Court. The ruling struck down two long-standing ordinances that require developers to donate land, cash or recreational facilities to municipalities where they seek to build. Communities involved in the case are likely to appeal.
For years, New Jersey municipalities have enforced a patchwork of regulations that call for developers to make contributions before winning approval to put up residential or other complexes. The demands have increased as housing prices rose and undeveloped land became harder to find.
Initially, developers tolerated the requirements as a cost of doing business, but balked as towns grew more demanding.
July 2nd, 2008 at 6:31 am
#1
“The constant bombardment of negative news every day is weighing on people’s psyche,”
Blame the media. Nothing to do with tens of thousands of layoffs on Wall St. Or the tightening of credit. Or the collapse of the funny money mortgage that put people in homes they could not afford with conventional financing. Must the the work of those re terrorists 101 chirps about.
July 2nd, 2008 at 6:33 am
3: make 4 really tall towers with 1000 units?
It seems when they build these things they always are like 20-40 stories in an area where most things are shorter.
July 2nd, 2008 at 6:35 am
I’m #9…:)
July 2nd, 2008 at 6:39 am
#2
“Among economists, the sense is broadening that the troubles dogging the economy will be stubborn, leaving in place an uncomfortable combination of tight credit and scant job opportunities perhaps well into next year.”
Since over 95% of the eCONomists missed the housing bubble and its popping, this bit concerns me. Is the economy reaching its bottom and the eCONs are late to the party, or are things going to get much worse? I’, leaning to a lot worse.
Fortunately I see a helicopter in the distance being flown by a balding man with a beard dropping little bits of green paper.
Helicopter Ben will save the day!!!!! Deflation, Stagflation, or Hyperinflation (maybe all 3 over the next few years?) here we come.
July 2nd, 2008 at 6:41 am
Hi,
Been reading this blog for a couple of years, love it!
Happily renting right now but looking to buy also.
A 2Bed/2Bath condo in the Union City/Weehawken
area is available for 470K, it’s a new building on the Park Ave.
Is this a reasonable price?
Thanks in advance!
July 2nd, 2008 at 7:08 am
Jay 11 If there is no hurry on your rental situation & you have been reading? Why not hang out a year or so, you can only pay less. It’s not like they are all going to sell. I do not know the market in that area to talk about price, pret pret pret where are you.
July 2nd, 2008 at 7:19 am
From MarketWatch:
Mortgage applications rose 3.6% last week: MBA
Mortgage applications filed last week rose a seasonally adjusted 3.6% compared with the week before, as interest rates on fixed-rate mortgages eased slightly, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported on Wednesday.
Applications for the week ended June 27 were down 22.8% compared with the same week in 2007, the Washington-based MBA said.
Refinance applications were up 4.7% on a week-to-week basis, while applications for mortgages to purchase a home increased a seasonally adjusted 2.8%.
The four-week moving average for all loans as tracked by the MBA was down 1.2%.
July 2nd, 2008 at 7:25 am
From the WSJ:
Small Banks’ Reckoning Day Is Coming
Billions in Troubled Construction Loans
Promise to Pose Test for Regional Lenders
By MICHAEL CORKERY, JENNIFER S. FORSYTH and LINGLING WEI
July 2, 2008; Page C1
Wall Street is bracing for regional and small banks to fess up to large losses from their mounting volume of soured construction loans made primarily to home builders.
According to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., $45.4 billion of the $631.8 billion in construction loans outstanding at the end of the first quarter were delinquent. When banks announce second-quarter results in coming weeks, they are expected to report sharp increases in loans that builders can’t repay. Banks are also facing intensifying pressure from federal and state regulators to deal with the problem loans on their books.
That will put additional pressure on an already stressed financial system. Banks have begun to dump bad construction and land loans at discounts, curtail new lending and halt construction projects that are under way to preserve capital. Some analysts even see a wave of bank failures as a possibility.
July 2nd, 2008 at 7:27 am
From the WSJ:
Sharing the pain
Interesting.. Citizens Community Bank in Ridgewood has 42% of its construction loans not performing.
July 2nd, 2008 at 7:30 am
“The constant bombardment of negative news every day is weighing on people’s psyche,”
Negative news or a thinner wallet?
July 2nd, 2008 at 7:36 am
How would you like to live next to this guy?
Belmar man loses bid to boost neighbors’ property taxes
Monmouth County officials rejected a Belmar man’s request to raise his neighbors’ property taxes.
Steven Irwin, an attorney who specializes in tax appeals, argued last month that his neighbors aren’t paying their fair share and their property taxes should be up to four times higher.
July 2nd, 2008 at 7:38 am
Grim (2) and barien (10) “Among economists, the sense is broadening that the troubles dogging the economy will be stubborn, leaving in place an uncomfortable combination of tight credit and scant job opportunities perhaps well into next year.”
Well into next year - and longer…At this rate, folks my age may never be able to retire creating an even worse employment picture down the road.
I wish someone would think long term. With no raise (no COLA - just zippo)and 10% inflation it is my retirement savings and debt reduction that suffer. We are poised to have a bunch of boomers in the work force that should have been able to retire but can no longer afford to do so.
July 2nd, 2008 at 7:40 am
Jay@11,
Do you really want to live on Park Avenue for half a million? I’d hold off until that price will get you a condo on the real Park Ave.
July 2nd, 2008 at 7:45 am
Jay
You could live in Weehawken on Blvd East for less then that now. Why would you live in Union City?
July 2nd, 2008 at 7:46 am
From MarketWatch:
Layoff plans up 21% in first half of year
Heavy cost-cutting in the financial services pushed corporate layoff announcements up 21% in the first half of the year compared with last year, according to a tally released Wednesday by outplacement firm Challenger Gray & Christmas. Announced layoffs totaled 81,755 in June, up 47% compared with the previous June. For the second quarter, layoffs rose to 275,292, the most since late 2005. So far this year, announced job cuts have risen to 475,948, compared with 393,499 in the first six months of 2007. Financial companies announced 19,227 layoffs in June, bringing the total for 2008 to 85,258, 91% of which are related to the collapse of the mortgage market, Challenger said.
July 2nd, 2008 at 7:51 am
This was posted yesterday, but I’ll post it again anyway..
Upset homeowner shoots real estate agent in Mich.
A man upset about a property transaction fatally shot a real estate agent in the head during a meeting Tuesday morning in the victim’s office, authorities said.
Troy VanderStelt, 34, was pronounced dead at 12:45 p.m. at Mercy Health Partners Hackley Campus in Muskegon, said Muskegon County Prosecutor Tony Tague.
…
Tague said Johnson plotted to kill VanderStelt, took a .22-caliber semiautomatic handgun to the real estate agent’s office, got him preoccupied with some paperwork in a conference room, stood next to him, pulled out the gun and shot him once in the temple.
“We believe this was a planned-out execution-style murder of the real estate agent,” the prosecutor said.
Tague told WOOD-TV in Grand Rapids that Johnson believed that VanderStelt took advantage of him in a real estate deal. Johnson bought a house through him in 2005, then recently decided to sell it and went to a different real estate agent. The second agent told Johnson that, because of the slumping housing market, the home was not worth what he had paid for it.
July 2nd, 2008 at 7:54 am
#22
I’m surprised that doesn’t happen more often. Especially if someone put their life savings as a down payment.
July 2nd, 2008 at 7:56 am
frank,
see #14 & #21. I believe that’s the recession you’ve been looking for, or do spikes in layoffs and massive loan defaults only happen when times are good?
July 2nd, 2008 at 7:57 am
The next devastating bubble, even president boob has an interesting , concerned statement in here. It is a long read but worth the time.
http://www.lacitybeat.com/cms/story/detail/house_of_cards/7181/
Jim
July 2nd, 2008 at 8:13 am
What, no NJRER?
10 Best Gloom And Doom Sites
1. Daily Reckoning
2. Clusterf*** Nation
3. The Big Picture
4. DollarCollapse.Com
5. Angry Bear
6. Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis
7. Naked Capitalism
8. Peter Schiff
9. GREG MANKIW’S BLOG
10. The mess that greenspan made
July 2nd, 2008 at 8:15 am
[22],
2008 definition of risk management.
Sounds like the day trader in Atlanta.
July 2nd, 2008 at 8:21 am
“Manhattan real estate starts to soften”
That CAN’T be true! Frank said there were 30% year over year gains this year!
July 2nd, 2008 at 8:22 am
“Iraq sues companies over oil-for-food kickbacks
Chevron, DaimlerChrysler, Kodak among firms named in suit”
http://tinyurl.com/4chwm5
SAS
July 2nd, 2008 at 8:25 am
ADP numbers out this morning, question is: Are they accurate?
From MarketWatch:
ADP shows biggest job loss in nearly 6 years
Private-sector firms in the United States lost 79,000 jobs in June, the biggest loss since November 2002, according to the ADP employment index released Wednesday. Employment in the services sector fell by 3,000, the first decline since November 2002. Job gains in May were revised lower to 25,000 from 40,000 earlier. After adding in some 20,000 government jobs that are created in a typical month but not included in ADP’s index, the ADP number suggests that about 60,000 nonfarm payroll jobs were lost in June. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch now expect 40,000 net payroll jobs were lost in June, following a loss of 49,000 in May.
July 2nd, 2008 at 8:27 am
Repost from last night:
I know there’s a lot of talk here about newer agents with no experience and how they handle sales. What do you all think is the percentage of agents that have been in the game a long time but still won’t come to reality in terms of pricing?
July 2nd, 2008 at 8:27 am
Jay,
Re Union City, make sure you look into the RE taxes on the place. If it’s a new development Union City tends to give tax breaks for a certain number of years but standard property tax rates in that town are through the roof.
July 2nd, 2008 at 8:28 am
All Hail the Mighly Brokerage Trust Corp..
From the WSJ:
Paulson to Call for Expansion
Of Regulatory Powers
By TOM BARKLEY
July 2, 2008 8:17 a.m.
WASHINGTON — U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson will call Wednesday for an expansion of regulatory powers to ensure that the failure of a nonbank financial institution doesn’t threaten the whole financial system.
Mr. Paulson, in the latest demonstration of how the near-collapse of Bear Stearns Cos. is changing the regulatory landscape, will say in a speech in London that a new resolution process is needed to deal with firms such as investment banks facing failure.
“The financial landscape has changed, and nonbank financial institutions play a significantly greater role,” Mr. Paulson will say, according to prepared remarks. “We need to consider broadly the resolution regime in light of these changes.”
His comments mark a further evolution of the Treasury’s plan for a complete overhaul of the U.S. regulatory system. A blueprint released in March provided broad recommendations for realigning the patchwork system of supervisors to be more effective, with the Federal Reserve seen taking on the role of market stability supercop.
July 2nd, 2008 at 8:29 am
more writedowns?
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/080702/merrill_research_ubs.html?.v=2
July 2nd, 2008 at 8:29 am
“Two other people who directly profited from Oil-For-Food scandal .. are Obama’s Arab backers Antoin Rezco and billionaire Nadhni Auchi, who were both in it up to their necks. Auchi .. made most of his money as a fixer and conduit between Saddam Hussein .. allegedly using bank he owned in Luxembourg to launder oil for food money for Saddam. Auchi and Rezco are particularly tight and Obama appeared at a party given for Auchi by Rezco at Rezco’s mansion in 2004 .. Auchi lent millions of dollars to Barack Obama’s fundraiser via Rezco just weeks before that complex series of transactions between Rezko and Barack Hussein Obama involving the 2005 purchase of Obama’s Chicago mansion and Rezko’s wife’s purchase of an adjoining landlocked parcel from the same owner on the same day.”
July 2nd, 2008 at 8:36 am
what? I’m in moderation again.
SAS
July 2nd, 2008 at 8:41 am
“Mansion ‘mistake’ piles the pressure on Barack Obama”
http://tinyurl.com/39t78f
SAS
July 2nd, 2008 at 8:42 am
#32 - the Federal Reserve seen taking on the role of market stability supercop
Nice to see they’re being honest about what they view their role as. I love our free market!
July 2nd, 2008 at 8:43 am
June Homebuilder Recap from Smith Barney
Housing data released in June shows that weakness continues to persist in the overall
homebuilding sector. Housing starts fell 3.3% to 975,000, which was the lowest
reading since March 1991. Building permits fell 1.3%. Builders’ confidence matched
a record low in June as the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo
sentiment index fell to 18 from 19 in May (readings under 50 mean most respondents
view current conditions as poor). New home sales fell 2.7% to a 512,000 annual
pace, which represents the second lowest level since 1991. Compared with a year
earlier, new homes sales were down 40%. The supply of homes at the current sales
rate rose to 10.9 months’ worth versus 10.7 months in April. Existing home sales,
though, were up 2% for May; however, sales were down 16% compared to last year
and at the current sales pace, about 11 months worth of inventory is on the market.
RealtyTrac, a foreclosure listing service, reported that foreclosure filings for the
month of May were up nearly 50%.
During the month of June, Moody’s and Fitch downgraded a number of homebuilders, citing expectations for continued revenue decline and challenging conditions in the overall sector. This follows a slew of downgrades by S&P last month. We believe that homebuilders’ credit ratings will remain under pressure for the rest of the year despite efforts by builders to shore up liquidity as credit metrics will most likely continue to deteriorate. Spreads widened during the month for both the high-yield and high-grade homebuilders as Hovnanian and Lennar reported weak operating results and Lennar’s joint venture LandSource commenced Chapter 11 proceedings. While Lennar claims
the debt is nonrecourse back to the company, investors remember what happened to
Technical Olympic and the “nonrecourse” debt at Transeastern. According to Citi’s
High-Yield Market Index, spreads for the homebuilding subsector widened 55bp
from June 1 through June 26, outperforming the broader High-Yield Market Index
which saw spreads widen by 81bp. According to Citi’s BIG Credit Index, spreads for
high-grade homebuilders were wider by 22bp, underperforming the broad BIG Index
which saw spreads widen 17bp.
July 2nd, 2008 at 8:49 am
I may have a very interesting job opportunity based in lakewood. can anyone offer any commentary on the rental situation in that area?
I wouldnt want to live in the toms river area (aka cancer land), but dont know the region very well. I would have to relocate to that area as i would have a 2+ hour commute from my current location
July 2nd, 2008 at 8:55 am
Kettle,
I grew up in Toms River (no cancer) but can understand why you would not want to live there. Although, North Dover (TR) is extremely nice.
In re: Lakewood, unless you don’t mind renting in the “woods” or closer towards Howell, the center of “town” is predominately Hasidic Jews and Mexican. At least that is the way it was 10 years ago, so who knows now.
Freehold could be an option too.
July 2nd, 2008 at 8:57 am
i wouldnt have to live in lakewood, but would prefer to keep the commute under 30 min assuming i can find the sort of home/community i want
July 2nd, 2008 at 8:57 am
njpatient: A reminder to you this morning about Mrs. Patients take on NJ real estate.
July 2nd, 2008 at 8:57 am
From MarketWatch:
Consumer delinquencies rise in first quarter: ABA
Delinquency rates for home equity lines of credit and bank cards rose during the first quarter, the American Bankers Association reported Wednesday, citing ongoing housing market stress and general economic weakness. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the percentage of HELOC accounts more than 30 days past due rose 14 basis points to 1.1%, reaching the highest rate recorded since ABA started the series in 1987. Delinquencies for bank cards - credit cards provided by a bank — rose 13 basis points to 4.51% in the first quarter, compared with the five-year average delinquency rate of 4.40%.
(emphasis added)
July 2nd, 2008 at 8:59 am
“the center of “town” is predominately Hasidic Jews and Mexican.”
Gefilte Fish Burrito anyone?
July 2nd, 2008 at 9:00 am
44 Hehe
I just threw up in my mouth a little
July 2nd, 2008 at 9:03 am
From Bloomberg:
Overdue Home-Equity Credit Lines Rise Most Since 1987, ABA Says
Consumers fell behind on loans secured by their homes at the fastest pace in two decades in the first quarter, signaling deeper distress in the U.S. economy, the American Bankers Association reported.
Home-equity lines of credit at least 30 days past due rose 14 basis points to 1.1 percent of accounts for the quarter, the Washington-based group said today in a statement. Delinquent credit-card accounts increased 13 basis points to 4.51 percent, the highest level since 2006.
“People are looking for any source of funds to pay their daily expenses,” Carol Kaplan, spokeswoman for the bankers’ group, said yesterday in an interview. “It’s a sign of the overall condition of the economy that people are having trouble making their payments.”
…
The rise in delinquent home-equity accounts was the biggest since the ABA began collecting data in 1987, Kaplan said. It was also the highest in 11 years. Delinquencies often don’t peak until late in an economic slowdown.
ABA chief economist James Chessen said in the statement that because of job losses, slow income growth and falling real estate and equity markets, there is “little relief” in the coming months.
…
“The average consumer is tapped out and burned out,” billionaire investor Wilbur Ross said yesterday in a Bloomberg Television interview. “They kind of used their house as an ATM machine with a couple bedrooms attached to it.”
July 2nd, 2008 at 9:07 am
** Off -topic**
The boy was camping alone in his front yard and was fine when his mother checked on him at 9 p.m., according to Karback. When his mother checked again 90 minutes later, the child was gone — but his sneakers, T-shirt and a flashlight were still in the tent. He was wearing only sweat pants when he disappeared.
The boy’s mother called police, who assembled some 100 searchers to locate the child. Karback said the county K-9 unit, Pequannock police and State Police helicopter joined borough authorities in the search.
Link
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2008/07/lincoln_park_boy_missing_from.html
Who has to pay for her stupidity? The phrases that scream stupid in that article are: 11 years old - Camping in front yard, and alone!
Is it me???
KL
July 2nd, 2008 at 9:08 am
Anyone interested in a start-up that focuses on mining garbage dumps for trace metals?
Reflections: The Death of Gallium
July 2nd, 2008 at 9:12 am
17 - Neighbors that piss you off.
A friend of mine had a neighbor with a dog that they would always let run out and defecate/urinate wherever it wanted. Of course the dog always chose to defecate on my friends lawn. He tried talking to the neighbor about it, but they were quite rude. So my friend tried a different tact. Everyday whenever the dog defecated on his lawn he would collect the dogs poop and keep it in a bucket. Than when the bucket was full he would fill it with water and stuff all the poop into the neighbors mailbox. The neighbor finally got the message and started walking the dog.
July 2nd, 2008 at 9:15 am
What? Bailout isn’t an option now? C’mon, you can’t take the cake away. Or has “moral hazard” become the new “strong dollar”?
From MarketWatch:
Brokerage-firm failure has to be an option: Paulson
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson will stress in a speech later Wednesday that federal regulators must craft a system to allow brokerage firms to fail without threatening the overall financial system.
“For market discipline to constrain risk effectively, financial institutions must be allowed to fail,” Paulson said in excerpts of a speech he will deliver in London.
“It is clear that some institutions, if they fail, can have a systemic impact, so we must give regulators the authorities to limit that impact and facilitate an orderly failure,” Paulson said.
July 2nd, 2008 at 9:18 am
You can find whatever you want at almost all price points….there is a very large Hassidic community down there so realize that there will be large swaths of area where you are persona non grata…
realize the further you place yourself where you are neither easily commutable to the north or near a beach community, the drastically cheaper the price….
July 2nd, 2008 at 9:22 am
Talk about bad neighbors, my brothers lives on a dead end street and the 60 old across the street has torrets so she likes to come out and yell FU to the kids and even better when she drives down the street she leans her head out the car window swerves to pretend to hit you and yells FU to everyone even little kids. Even better she moved in when she was 5 years old so she has been doing this for 55 years on my brothers dead end block.
July 2nd, 2008 at 9:24 am
39 kettle
I wouldn’t live in Lakewood itself, it is pretty nasty. Within a half hour that may be OK are the Herbertsville section of Brick, Point Pleasant, Brielle, Manasquan, and the Ramtown section of Howell, Freehold or Jackson. I’m not as familiar with Toms River, but around Rt. 70 and Vermont Rd there are some apartments and it is very close to Lakewood. I think it is Toms River or Dover.
I live in Brick on the border of Point Pleasant so ask me anything. Wouldn’t you rather buy my townhouse ;)
July 2nd, 2008 at 9:27 am
kettle
if you would rather take it off of the board feel free to e-mail me. It is my handle at hotmail.
July 2nd, 2008 at 9:27 am
re: #47 - He was camping alone because the rest of the parents in the neighborhood would not let precious little Taylor,Kyle,Reece Shannon,Tyler,Bailey or Amber camp with him.
July 2nd, 2008 at 9:28 am
#41 kettle1
What kind of community are you looking for?
Also keep in mind if you go for a shore town the traffic is going to be lousy from Memorial day to mid September.
I grew up in a shore town in Monmouth county and the traffic during the beach season was not fun. I did like October and April a lot though.
July 2nd, 2008 at 9:28 am
Liar’s Moneyball
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aH545r_muZkU&refer=home
July 2nd, 2008 at 9:29 am
#11 Jay,
Do the math and compare the costs of buying the condo vs the rent you are paying now. I suspect the morgate+taxex+condo fees will be far higher than your rent.
Then decide if you want to pay the additional amount to be a condo owner as opposed to a renter.
Also factor in that we are just in the beginning of a declining and stagnant market so if you want to move up to a bigger place in a year or two you may have to take a hit on today’s prices.
If you are very keen on buying, I would suggest not paying more than 400K to protect yourself to some extend from further declines in property values.
July 2nd, 2008 at 9:30 am
Seriously, where is pret? I want his observations….
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=a05lmF8fkldM&refer=economy
July 2nd, 2008 at 9:35 am
Congress to Halt Closing of Unprofitable Starbucks
“(2008-07-02) — Democrats in Congress today plan to introduce a bill to halt the recently-announced closing of some 600 Starbucks coffee stores, noting that the displacement of 12,000 Starbucks baristas would overwhelm government aid offices not prepared to handle so many clients for whom English is a second language”
July 2nd, 2008 at 9:35 am
35 sas
Interesting that you didn’t post a link to that story. Why?
July 2nd, 2008 at 9:37 am
“If the effort fails to revive the flagging stores, Rep. Pelosi said Democrats would “seriously consider nationalizing the coffee industry to ensure the free flow of java at fair prices.”
“This is just another one of our heroic Democrat efforts to protect Americans from the impact of the Bush economic policies,” said Rep. Pelosi. “Under this president, America has become a cold and desolate place where corporations cut unprofitable activities to focus on increasing the bottom line, and returning value to shareholders. When Democrats retake the White House next year, we will reverse that trend.””
July 2nd, 2008 at 9:37 am
42 3B
Thank you my man. I will write it up when I get to the office.
July 2nd, 2008 at 9:40 am
43 grim
“On a seasonally adjusted basis, the percentage of HELOC accounts more than 30 days past due rose 14 basis points to 1.1%, reaching the highest rate recorded since ABA started the series in 1987″
That CAN’T be true! Pretorius said the 1992 RE bust was worse than this one!
July 2nd, 2008 at 9:42 am
Huge gold find reported in Ireland
(CNN) — A mining company has found what may be the largest gold deposit ever found in Britain or Ireland, the company’s chairman said Tuesday.
Drill samples indicate more than 1 million ounces of gold may lie below what is now rolling Irish countryside, said Richard Conroy, the chairman of Dublin, Ireland-based Conroy Diamonds and Gold.
With the price of gold near historic highs, the find could be worth as much as $300 million on the market, Conroy told CNN.
July 2nd, 2008 at 9:43 am
@60
Ha! I almost got really angry, very funny!
July 2nd, 2008 at 9:43 am
Rhyming
“Who has to pay for her stupidity?”
Unfortunately, her son.
July 2nd, 2008 at 9:43 am
#31
“What do you all think is the percentage of agents that have been in the game a long time but still won’t come to reality in terms of pricing?”
just a guess, but how about 90%?
seems to me the general MO of almost all agents is to “buy the listing” by suggesting an egregiously high initial list price. thereafter, it is an uphill battle to get the seller to lower the price.
July 2nd, 2008 at 9:44 am
tourette’s, John, tourette’s….swerve!
July 2nd, 2008 at 9:49 am
““Under this president, America has become a cold and desolate place where corporations cut unprofitable activities to focus on increasing the bottom line, and returning value to shareholders.”
that would be funnyif it were true. I wish it were true. It isn’t.
July 2nd, 2008 at 9:51 am
Bush Confident in Housing Plan
(NORTH LITTLE ROCK, Ark.) — President Bush expressed confidence Tuesday he will reach a deal with Congress on a housing-rescue plan, but only if lawmakers show “less politics.”
“I think we can get us a bill,” Bush said. “But it’s going to require less politics and more focus on keeping our minds on who we need to help, and that’s the homeowner.”
July 2nd, 2008 at 9:54 am
Manhattan Second-Quarter Apartment Sales Drop Most Since 1998
July 2 (Bloomberg) — Manhattan apartment sales dropped the most for a second quarter since 1998 and unsold inventory approached an eight-year record, two signs prices may be poised to drop in the nation’s most expensive urban housing market.
More at: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a05lmF8fkldM&refer=home
July 2nd, 2008 at 9:56 am
okay patient, the story???
July 2nd, 2008 at 9:59 am
“The constant bombardment of negative news every day is weighing on people’s psyche.”
See, this is the kind of bullsh*t rhetoric that these f*cking whinning b*stards spew that make me want to ram their heads into a f*cking wall. Incredible. Hey Sparkles, don’t blame the media just because they repo’d your leased “C” class and you have to settle for knock-off Gucci.
Try doing a little research and you might find that your industry bilked, swindled and fleeced every crumb from the residents of Whoville. You’re not privy to a stream of commission checks because you have cute shape. Ok, Giggles?
July 2nd, 2008 at 10:00 am
Let’s keep the news objective here….
Where’s the gloom and doom???
Manhattan apartment sales drop, but prices climb
“Apartment prices in Manhattan posted double-digit gains even as tight credit conditions and continued unrest on Wall Street slowed sales for the second straight quarter, according to two reports released Wednesday.
Real estate firm Prudential Douglas Elliman said the median sales price of a Manhattan apartment, including both condos and cooperatives, soared nearly 15 percent in the second quarter to $1.025 million — or nearly the cost of five U.S. median-priced homes.”
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5iPbvX3zBODz12TR4yvJ2W-kjq41wD91LIURO0
July 2nd, 2008 at 10:01 am
Grim, 48
I mentioned that yesterday, and there are already a few startups looking into it. But hey i would always be game, there is the potential for serious money in that in the near future
July 2nd, 2008 at 10:01 am
I love this part of ChiFi’s post”
No Safety in Numbers
There’s seldom any safety in numbers, and the more parlous (sic) the situation, the more dangerous it is to be in it with a lot of other people. London during an outbreak of the bubonic plague, the Superdome during Hurricane Katrina, the New Jersey suburbs: People are always clustering together precisely where and when they should not.”
The NJ suburbs as perilous. Precisely what I tell the wife.
July 2nd, 2008 at 10:02 am
From MarketWatch:
U.S. May factory orders rise 0.6%
U.S. May durable goods orders flat
U.S. May factory shipments rise 0.1%
U.S. May factory inventories rise 0.5%
July 2nd, 2008 at 10:08 am
re: #65 Huge gold find reported in Ireland
ever see the 1993 movie Leprechaun starring
Jennifer Aniston?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fEY0h-rAceA
July 2nd, 2008 at 10:09 am
NJpatient,
I agree, however I was wondering who pays for the massive police search? I mean -alone- 11 years old- front of house?? come on……
KL
July 2nd, 2008 at 10:11 am
thanks for the replies, on lakewood. it sounds like i would want to expand my commute range to 40-45 min if this proposal becomes serious.
July 2nd, 2008 at 10:13 am
From Bloomberg:
Merrill Lynch Estimates Cut by Oppenheimer’s Whitney
Merrill Lynch & Co. had its second- quarter earnings estimate cut by Oppenheimer & Co.’s Meredith Whitney on expectations subprime writedowns will be as large as $5.8 billion.
Merrill, the third-biggest U.S. securities firm, will probably lose $4.21 a share, Whitney said in a report today, compared with her earlier estimate for a profit of 20 cents for the New York-based company.
Analysts and investors are reversing their predictions that the worst of the credit-market contraction is over after more than $400 billion of writedowns and losses by the world’s largest financial institutions. Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. last month increased its loss estimate for Merrill and more than doubled its prediction for the firm’s subprime writedown, to $5.4 billion.
July 2nd, 2008 at 10:15 am
I’d rather be dead laying on the corner of 35th street and 9th Avenue, with a hypo sticking out of my arm, and a transexual singing over me than alive in Ocean County, NJ. Do I make myself clear? We bought our first house in the Toms River area and lived there for three years. I wanted to hang myself. When I hit that Parkway North entrance after we sold the house, it was like taking a crap for the first time in 36 months.
July 2nd, 2008 at 10:18 am
ahhh well, thank you for clearing up any questions i had gary!
July 2nd, 2008 at 10:19 am
Haven’t been here in a few days. If I can’t start reading by 10am it’s hard to keep up :)
Don’t know if any of you caught the poop, I mean scoop. The infamous 25 Burning Hollow Rd sold for almost 50% of judgment last week.
It’s going to be interesting to see what happens with it.
July 2nd, 2008 at 10:23 am
Say it ain’t so..
From Bloomberg:
Teens Skip $50 Jeans in Squeeze of $4 Gas, Summer-Job Shortage
The financial pressures of adults are finally catching up with American teenagers. Since summer jobs dried up, gasoline prices topped $4 a gallon and parents ran out of spare cash, teens have had to cool it on spending for clothes.
“I’ve had to cut down on a bunch of stuff because I don’t like spending my own money,” said 14-year-old Haley McClelland from Waldwick, New Jersey, who was shopping at the nearby Paramus Park mall. She said her parents are “more careful” about what they give her.
…
“Gas is the main thing right now,” said Pete McCullough, a 19-year-old from Oradell, New Jersey, who can’t afford the designer clothing he favors. “Just coming to the mall costs $4.” McCullough said he earns what he spends, juggling school with construction work.
July 2nd, 2008 at 10:24 am
Number 83
POST OF THE DAY!
July 2nd, 2008 at 10:26 am
Ahh, good ol’ Burning Hollow.
Neighbor buys it at a premium price without even bothering to look in the window.
Plastered in urine and feces, it’ll need to have the flooring, wallboard, and other finish carpentry torn out and replaced.
At 50% off, it will be a profitable project.
July 2nd, 2008 at 10:27 am
/////////////////////////////////
gary,,, my kind of guy
and poor haley
July 2nd, 2008 at 10:27 am
rhymingrealtor Says:
July 2nd, 2008 at 10:09 am
NJpatient,
I agree, however I was wondering who pays for the massive police search? I mean -alone- 11 years old- front of house?? come on……
KL
KL: I walked 1/2 mile through city streets from elementary school when I was 6. I took the subway alone when I was 11, and back and forth to school for an hour+ from the time I was 12. In NYC in the 1980’s. To kill time in the summer, I would ask my mom for a token and I would ride the subway all day and all over the city.
July 2nd, 2008 at 10:28 am
gary:
perhaps you could try Bergen
lodi,garfield,wallington,rutherford,
teaneck,englewood,palisades park,
fort ree,
wonderful towns with great pricing
July 2nd, 2008 at 10:30 am
Sounds like Manhattan is about 2 years behind the curve. This makes sense because declining RE markets tends to rot from the outside in (exurbs toward the city).
In 2006, you could have written this exact same story about New Jersey. Sales down, inventory climbing, homes sitting longer, but prices generally holding up; the RE bulls congratulated themselves, declaring a “soft landing”; a mere flattening of prices as the market takes a breather.
Unless the law of supply & demand is suspended when you pass through the Lincoln Tunnel, falling sales and rising inventory will take its toll on prices.
July 2nd, 2008 at 10:30 am
Gary, I have to ask where in TR? Even within a mile of your house, just tell me.
July 2nd, 2008 at 10:30 am
Home prices still make no sense. The estate sale I talked about buying this week on my brothers house that I could get for 790k on a block where similar homes sold for a million earlier this summer sounds like a deal but I could rent a similar home for 4K. 400K out of my bond fond at 4% to put down will cost me 16K a year and the 400K mortgage at 6.5% will run me 31K a year plus taxes are 15K because although house is now 790K it is taxed like a million dollar home. So I am up to 16+31+15=52K a year to own a house I can rent for 4×12=48K a year. Even worse back in the mid nineties rentals were going at 10x annual rent roll. So that would put the house at 480K instead of the 790K. Two neighbors are furious on that block. Two similar homes one in the summer 2007 and one just two months ago for over a million sold on that block recently one just two houses away. Nice comp, you paid 1.1 million for a house in April 2008 that you could of had for 790K in July 2008. Ouch.
July 2nd, 2008 at 10:31 am
#60 & #62 jamil
You do realize that is a satire site?
July 2nd, 2008 at 10:33 am
77 nom
Parlous is an anglicism properly used there
July 2nd, 2008 at 10:36 am
BREAKING NEWS:
Fugitive financier Samuel Israel has been arrested, CNBC reports.
July 2nd, 2008 at 10:38 am
#86
“I’ve had to cut down on a bunch of stuff because I don’t like spending my own money,” said 14-year-old Haley ”
Haley, become a politician and spend other’s people money instead, or a “sophisticated investor” and lose other people’s money while you collect phat fees.
July 2nd, 2008 at 10:38 am
94 bairen: uh…are you 10 year old or do you just not understand sarcasm?
July 2nd, 2008 at 10:41 am
79 Sean
I went to grade school with her. She thought I was cute. That was a long time ago.
July 2nd, 2008 at 10:42 am
GM Bankruptcy `Not Impossible,’ Merrill Analyst Says
How stupid is this, Rick Wagnor shoud do a press releast that Merrill Bankruptcy is not impossible.
July 2nd, 2008 at 10:42 am
#83 gary,
Toms River is awful, but then, so is the rest of Ocean County.
A cultural wasteland of strip malls, big box chains, and toothless tattooed women.
July 2nd, 2008 at 10:43 am
Obama got a discount on his mortgage.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/07/01/AR2008070103008.html
July 2nd, 2008 at 10:43 am
Heck I walked eight blocks to first grade everyday in the Bronx what is the big deal. That 11 year old needs to man up.
July 2nd, 2008 at 10:43 am
#98 jamil
not 10 years old. From your previous political posts was not sure if you understood.
July 2nd, 2008 at 10:43 am
Repost from yesterday.
Montclair, NJ.
In 2006, 252 houses were under contract.
In 2008, 198 houses were under contract.
In 2006, 61% went above asking price.
In 2008, 40% went above asking price.
July 2nd, 2008 at 10:44 am
mark [90],
I already own a house here in North Jersey since 2001.
July 2nd, 2008 at 10:45 am
Rich [87],
I’m juiced up today! Lotsa coffee! lol!
July 2nd, 2008 at 10:49 am
#74 gary: Thanks gary. Now one for the sellers please.
July 2nd, 2008 at 10:49 am
80 rhyming
I hear you. I view the mother as grossly irresponsible, too, and if SHE had disappeared as a result, I’d say she should pay to be found. But I don’t think finding the child should be subject to his mother’s ability to pay.
I’d happily make many folks pay for the government services they cause to be used (some obvious parallels are mountain climbers or extreme skiers who require rescuing).
July 2nd, 2008 at 10:50 am
I have a general realtor question for Grim, Clot, or any other honest realtors on this board (the rest of you stop snickering):
Do realty offices get and keep access to review county land records (deeds, mortgages, liens, etc.) on line?
For example, Union County has a website that permits you to view land records, if you register as a user. Registered users pay $600 per year and can register a certain number of people (more people cost more money).
I was told by a realtor who shall remain nameless that she did not know how to get access to land records. She works in a HUGE office. This did not pass the smell test for me. Am I right in thinking that the realtor was less than honest with me, or would realty offices simply never have a need to look up land records so they don’t subscribe or know how?
I am anticipating getting a response to the effect that her office doesn’t have a need for such access, and want to be able to speak authoritatively when I reply.
July 2nd, 2008 at 10:50 am
Secondary Market [92],
Draw a two mile radius around the Hooper Avenue/Rt 37 center-point. But it really doesn’t matter… I have an uncle in Brick for years, one in Seaside Park for years and my parents had a 2nd home in Lacey/Berkeley since the late 70’s. It was a nice place to visit.. let’s leave it at that. :)
July 2nd, 2008 at 10:50 am
#75 frank: Don’t be dense. Look behind the numbers, do your homework.
The doom and gloom is spreading to Manhattan. Nothing you can do about it.
July 2nd, 2008 at 10:50 am
“Merrill Lynch & Co. had its second- quarter earnings estimate cut by Oppenheimer & Co.’s Meredith Whitney on expectations subprime writedowns will be as large as $5.8 billion. ”
That CAN’T be true!! bi and S&P said there would be no more writedowns!!
July 2nd, 2008 at 10:52 am
[95] NJP,
That’s why you are in BIGLAW and I am not.
(what, were you the $%&@# EIC of law review???)
July 2nd, 2008 at 10:55 am
83 gary
you’re not messin’ around today!
July 2nd, 2008 at 10:58 am
Since when does hanging out in one of the junked cars in the front lawn constitute camping?
Probably not the case but who lets their kid camp out in the front lawn? Did the other kids lay claim to the backyard?
July 2nd, 2008 at 10:58 am
gary in rare form today! You go, gary!
Of course, all those Nort Joisey denizens that moved into Ocean County will want to lynch you!
Hey gas ain’t $2 a gallon and it ain’t ever gonna be again. The commute to their jobs is consuming half their wages, and the time it takes to get off the Toms River exit has gone up exponentially since gary last lived there.
gary…..can you show us the “rough draft” of your latest letter to Realtors??
July 2nd, 2008 at 10:59 am
#110 gary,
I spent a year once on Hooper ave. I think it was on a Tuesday…
FYI Hooper ave is like Rt 1 between Woodbridge Mall and Menlo Park Mall. Without the ambiance.
July 2nd, 2008 at 10:59 am
112 njpatient,
I think they’re going to be coming up with a new word for write-downs.
July 2nd, 2008 at 11:01 am
Ok
here’s the funny story
We’re moving on Monday, and yesterday the mover called Mrs. Patient wanting to inquire whether we were still planning to move.
Mrs. Patient: Yes
Mover: You’re sure
Mrs. Patient: Of course
Mover: It’s just that we keep showing up for jobs that get cancelled at the last minute
Mrs. Patient: Well, we’re definitely moving.
Mover: Yeah, well, last week I had two folks scheduled to move who were closing on homes, and both closings fell through at the last minute.
Mrs. Patient: Oh.
Mover: We had one guy who was all loaded up already when his closing fell through and we had nowhere to put his stuff.
Mrs. Patient: Well, we’re moving from one rental to another, so we’re definitely moving.
Mover: OK. Sorry, it’s just that THIS KEEPS HAPPENING!
July 2nd, 2008 at 11:03 am
#104 NNJ: God Bless all those buyers. Some may really need it. In the end it changes nothing.
I will ask you what I asked frnak yesterday, to which he did not respond.
What will keep house prices in Montclair and all of North Jersey from continuing to decline, and yes even free fall?
1. Proximity to NYC and Wall St jobs? Ah, No. Layoffs everyday on Wall St, and the contagion is spreading to those areas that service Wall St, as well as non- Wall St related areas.
2. The robust economy of the state of NJ, that is creating high paying jobs, that can absorb all the real estate inventory for sale? Ah, No.
3. The ever widening credit market crisis, which is making getting mtg money harder and harder? Ah No.
4. The inflationary spiral we are in, with ever rising food and energy costs, you know $4 gasoline? Ah, No.
5. Or finally will it be the Fed tightening that will be commencing over the balance left of this year? And again I say, Ah, No.
So as I said to frank yesterday pelase provide one valid reason as to why prices in north Jersey, the NYC metro area, or whatever you want to call it, will not continue to decline, and yes perhaps even free fall.
July 2nd, 2008 at 11:03 am
@110 Gary,
Agreed, I have not turned back after leaving. Even the Mall in OC is pathetic. And I think in NJ, malls are definitely a barometer for the surrounding area.
July 2nd, 2008 at 11:04 am
118 Tom
“I think they’re going to be coming up with a new word for write-downs.”
Surprised they haven’t yet. “Downsizing of receivables”, or “Asset contraction” or something like that. Of course, write-down is itself the new word for “Loss”.
July 2nd, 2008 at 11:05 am
#119 njpatient: Good story.
July 2nd, 2008 at 11:08 am
NJP, PA bound already?
July 2nd, 2008 at 11:10 am
117 bairen
“like Rt 1 between Woodbridge Mall and Menlo Park Mall. Without the ambiance.”
Taking a right on Rt 1 from the Woodbridge Mall is even worse.
I do like both those malls with kids though. The Little Patients are completely mad about the Rainforest Cafe, and even though they’ve downsized the train and carousel at the Woodbridge, the Little Patients still love them and the silly little playground that’s always filled with Indians - we’ve spent many a rainy day there.
July 2nd, 2008 at 11:12 am
“NJP, PA bound already?”
Not yet. Plan is still to retreat to Philly in the winter of ‘09/10. The new lease runs through January 2010. I figure that’s a year before the bottom of the RE market, but I’ll be comfortable buying at that point.
July 2nd, 2008 at 11:14 am
The top ten things you’ll never find in Ocean County:
10) Nordstroms
9) Italian Bread
8) A good dentist
7) sidewalks
6) a four story building
5) a Zagat’s guide
4) Martha Stewart
3) a hill
2) a train town
And the number one thing you’ll never find in Ocean County:
1) Graydon and Ellery
July 2nd, 2008 at 11:14 am
bairen Says:
July 2nd, 2008 at 10:59 am
#110 gary, I spent a year once on Hooper ave. I think it was on a Tuesday…
FYI Hooper ave is like Rt 1 between Woodbridge Mall and Menlo Park Mall. Without the ambiance.
b: here is a live video of what it looks like over there right now…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kLokDBOb7-U
July 2nd, 2008 at 11:18 am
#127 gary,
You’re on a roll today.
July 2nd, 2008 at 11:18 am
RE: #109
Nom,
RE office doesn’t necessarily have to have access to that site particularly if it cost $’s to subscribe. No offense to RE agents, but maybe this RE pro is not aware of the fact that this information is a public record and all one has to do is go to the county seat (Elizabeth for Union Cty) to the clerks office or the register of deeds office to obtain those records through a simple search. If you are in close proximity to the county seat, why don’t you just do it
yourself thus freeing yourself from the ignorance and most likely deceptive RE agents advice.
Hirono
July 2nd, 2008 at 11:20 am
bairen,
We can compile the “best of gary” just from this one post today. LOL!
July 2nd, 2008 at 11:24 am
bairen
gary is butter.
July 2nd, 2008 at 11:24 am
#91 RentinginNJ
I’ve actually looking been looking to buy a condo in Manhattan and so far nothing I want is coming into my price range. But I’m hopeful about the next year.
Do you think a RE recovery would work in the same way ie will NYC improve before the ex/sub urbs? Wall street is obviously tanking but it appears the city does have other industries which are not.
July 2nd, 2008 at 11:27 am
129 3b, it’s call supply and demand. Unless household formation has taken a nosedive, the demand will revert back to average. And housing starts shows decrease in supply. So the 10.9 months of supply can decrease pretty quickly or not. Only time will tell.
July 2nd, 2008 at 11:27 am
I mean 120, 3b.
July 2nd, 2008 at 11:29 am
#125 njp I try to avoid going to a mall as much as possible.
I was at Freehold mall this past weekend. Found it very depressing.
1) Nothing besides a lemonade, chocolate, and a magazine/book I would be interested in buying.
2) Thought of the billions spent on building and maintaing these malls across the US. What a waste of money and natural resources.
3) Doing some people watching I kept wondering “How did the US get to be the world’s super power? I can’t believe the rest of the world looks as dumb and sloppy as most NJ residents, one of the wealthies per capita states in the US”
4) I had the same thought as (3) at a rest stop on the NJ turnpike 2 weeks ago.
July 2nd, 2008 at 11:29 am
So you people are saying don’t move any farther south then Monmouth County?
I tried to compromise with DH. I told him I would move to NJ if we could live by the beach. He told me his commute would kill him. I told him my commute would be double what his would be. He said well we’re not moving by the beach. So I said well we’re not moving to NJ. Great stuck in F@ucking Staten Island. Someone shoot me.
July 2nd, 2008 at 11:31 am
#75
“Real estate firm Prudential Douglas Elliman said the median sales price of a Manhattan apartment, including both condos and cooperatives, soared nearly 15 percent in the second quarter to $1.025 million — or nearly the cost of five U.S. median-priced homes.”
…due to a change in the mix of properties sold.
July 2nd, 2008 at 11:32 am
“Do you think a RE recovery would work in the same way ie will NYC improve before the ex/sub urbs?”
Bottom may be some time in the next two or three years, but “recovery” won’t occur for five to eight years, so don’t worry about it. For now, Manhattan has some catching up to do (which it appears is finally in the works).
Look for the first undeniable price drops in Manhattan this winter, and next winter it’ll be “Warriors, come out to play-ay”.
July 2nd, 2008 at 11:33 am
Manhattan: 2010
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xITVFgxcDIg
July 2nd, 2008 at 11:34 am
140 Patient
My favorite scene from “Warriors”! Love it!
July 2nd, 2008 at 11:34 am
NJP,
How much off-peak can we expect manhattan to fall in the next 2-3 years?
July 2nd, 2008 at 11:35 am
Manhattan: Updated bathroom, circa 2010
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ISkLxfAOTo8&feature=related
July 2nd, 2008 at 11:35 am
NNJ
Dont forget that NJ is currently experience a mass exodus of its primary tax base. The only reason the numbers are not hugely negative is that the newborns and low income influx balances the numbers. But the incoming lower income people and the newborns certainly arent going to be buying in brigadoon anytime soon
July 2nd, 2008 at 11:36 am
142 ADA
IMHO, Manhattan prices down from today by about 20%-25% as of the end of the 2010/11 winter.
July 2nd, 2008 at 11:36 am
144, Population in NJ is growing and so is median income. What is this mass exodus you are talking about and where are they moving to?
July 2nd, 2008 at 11:37 am
Manhattan: 2010
‘72nd and Broadway is no longer a safe place to play stickball.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JawHRggFPGo&feature=related
July 2nd, 2008 at 11:38 am
NJP,
Fingers crossed.
July 2nd, 2008 at 11:38 am
@137
Yes, the Mason Dixon line runs along the top half of Ocean County.
July 2nd, 2008 at 11:40 am
133 ada: Nobody knows how it will go in NYC. My new FOB co-worker (flush with non-USD currency) picked up one of the new condos for a “great price”, which, according to the helpful and honest RE professional, was sensational 5% off the (listing?) price.
However, keep in mind that in 2009 the “Guliani cops” may be off the streets (direct quote from the left-wing candidate who almost won last time). If crime rates and taxes go up with the new mayor, you can pick up your luxury condo - surrounded by housing projects - for $50k (comes with 50k property taxes and hobo neighbours, and daily rapes and murders).
July 2nd, 2008 at 11:40 am
146 NNJ
“Population in NJ is growing and so is median income.”
You’re not using your noggin’. Incomes always rise, but not so much when you control for inflation. Real incomes in NJ are not currently rising. Further, compare population trends in NJ to the rest of the country. I’ll get you some numbers, but you’re horribly wrong on this one (you are beginning to make a bit of a habbit of this).
July 2nd, 2008 at 11:40 am
lostinny [137],
If you like shopping exclusively in Kohls and eating lunch in Friendly’s next to 27 blue-haired people, then move to Ocean County.
July 2nd, 2008 at 11:41 am
[130] Hirono,
Thx. I do plan to go to Eliz. to check. I used to search titles so it should not take long.
My point was not that it was required, but whether, as a matter of business necessity, an office would ordinarily have a subscription to the land records system. I am not a realtor, but it seems to me that realty offices and realtors have a need, from time to time, to see mortgages, deeds, liens, etc. Maybe they don’t, or it isn’t something that concerns them (after all, that is what settlement services are for). It just strikes me as the sort of thing a realy office with dozens of realtors would have. That is what I was driving at.
July 2nd, 2008 at 11:42 am
but NJP
that wont hurt the manhatten RE market! the Investment bankers will just buy an extra apartment or two for their mistress/girlfriend while they live in their primary with the family. So there will be no negative impacts in Manhatten. besides what else are they going to do with their record breaking bonuses this christmas
July 2nd, 2008 at 11:42 am
NJ population increase, 2000-2006: +3.7%
US population increase, 2000-2006: +6.4%
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/34000.html
July 2nd, 2008 at 11:42 am
[151] patient,
Parlous use of “habbit” there.
July 2nd, 2008 at 11:43 am
151, Number speak louder than words. If someone tells me that there is a mass exodus out of NJ, show proff, I don’t see it.
It’s like the logic yesterday, 68% houses in Montcalir used to go above asking, now only 40% go above asking, oh the doom and gloom.
July 2nd, 2008 at 11:43 am
#137 lostinny
If the town’s parkway exit # is less then 105 I would not want to live there. Actually most areas between 105 and the Driscoll bridge I would not want to live in too.
July 2nd, 2008 at 11:43 am
But Bi i thought oil was going down???
IEA warns of tightening oil supplies
from FT, July 1 2008 13:16
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/cd683aa0-4764-11dd-93ca-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1
The oil market will remain tight during the next five years as production from non-Opec countries stalls and demand growth remains relatively strong, the western countries’ energy watchdog warned on Tuesday.
But the IEA warned governments not to blame speculators. It said: “Like alchemists looking for a way to turn basic elements into gold, everyone wants a simplistic explanation for high prices,” bluntly adding: “Often it is a case of political expediency to find a scapegoat for higher prices rather than undertake serious analysis or perhaps confront difficult decisions.”
July 2nd, 2008 at 11:44 am
More for NNJ:
“New Jersey’s population drain
Posted by James Hughes and Joseph Seneca October 10, 2007 12:01AM
Categories: Hot Topics, Policy Watch
There is a growing perception that increasing numbers of New Jerseyans are cashing out and moving to lower-cost, more-affordable states, or establishing permanent residence in low-tax states while continuing to maintain a New Jersey home.
Unfortunately, this perception is statistically confirmed by recent Census Bureau and Internal Revenue Service data. The population outflow is very real, and our analyses show it is already exerting a small but increasing negative impact on the New Jersey economy.
Census Bureau data reveal a sharp downturn in New Jersey’s population growth in the 2002-2006 period and a sharp upturn in the number of people leaving the state. In 2002, the state’s population increased by 79,184 persons. The absolute population growth declined steadily in the next four years. It was up only 63,144 in 2003, 56,467 in 2004, and 32,759 in 2005. By 2006, the state’s population growth was just 21,410 persons. A simple extrapolation of this trend indicates New Jersey would experience an absolute population loss in 2008.
Three factors - births minus deaths, international migration and national migration - go into calculating these numbers.
The overall deceleration in the growth rate has been caused by the sharp acceleration in the number of New Jerseyans moving to other states - national migration. In 2002, New Jersey had a net outflow 23,759 people - that is 23,759 more people moved from New Jersey to other states than people from the rest of the country moved into New Jersey. The losses accelerated over the next four years: 33,225 in 2003, 45,045 in 2004, and 56,989 in 2005. By 2006, the new outflow was 72,547 persons. A simple extrapolation of this trend suggests that New Jersey would have a net outflow of over 100,000 persons in 2009.
These losses are starting to have significant economic and fiscal consequences. Internal Revenue Service data on tax filers and their dependents show a substantial loss of income in the state. New Jersey’s 2005 net aggregate adjusted gross income (AGI) was reduced by an estimated $7.9 billion because of the net loss of tax payers between 2000 and 2005. Our estimates of continued out migration indicate that our AGI was reduced by over $10 billion in 2006. In essence, because of the cumulative net outflow of taxpayers, $10 billion was removed from the New Jersey economy in 2006, reducing consumer expenditures, employment, and state and local taxes.
All this translated into a total direct and indirect tax loss (state income and sales taxes) of $539 million in 2005. Based on 2006 population out migration data, the tax losses are estimated to have increased to $680 million in 2006. ”
http://blog.nj.com/njv_hughes_seneca/2007/10/new_jerseys_population_drain.html
July 2nd, 2008 at 11:45 am
NNJ
To highlight, in case you missed it:
“In 2002, New Jersey had a net outflow 23,759 people - that is 23,759 more people moved from New Jersey to other states than people from the rest of the country moved into New Jersey. The losses accelerated over the next four years: 33,225 in 2003, 45,045 in 2004, and 56,989 in 2005. By 2006, the new outflow was 72,547 persons. A simple extrapolation of this trend suggests that New Jersey would have a net outflow of over 100,000 persons in 2009.”
July 2nd, 2008 at 11:46 am
So population is going up, median income is up, yet we are in gloom and doom.
July 2nd, 2008 at 11:46 am
NNJ:
“Population Decline Hitting New Jersey Hard
TRENTON, NJ (AP) — New Jersey’s accelerating population loss is starting to have significant economic and fiscal consequences for the state, according to a Rutgers University report that found the state may be becoming a less attractive locale.
The report found the state lost 231,565 people between 2002 and 2006, including 72,547 people last year. The latter was the fourth highest loss in the nation behind only California, Louisiana and New York.
Meanwhile, North Carolina grew by 807,000 people over the four-year period, displacing New Jersey last year as the nation’s 10th most populous state, the report stated.
When lost income and sales taxes from the people who left New Jersey are considered, the population drain is estimated to have cost the state $680 million in tax revenue last year, the report found.
That estimated loss comes with the state confronting annual budget deficits and struggling to meet billions of dollars in unmet needs. The projected budget deficit could be as large as $3.5 billion next year, according to Gov. Jon S. Corzine.”
http://www.wcbs880.com/pages/1072576.php?
July 2nd, 2008 at 11:46 am
njpatient,
Don’t be a nar, Northern NJ is exclusive and exempt from any downturn. A realtor told me so.
July 2nd, 2008 at 11:47 am
thats a reasonable request NNJ
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2007/10/residents_are_fleeing_new_jers.html
July 2nd, 2008 at 11:48 am
158 Bairen
I don’t know. I kind of really like LBI but I have no idea what its like in the off months.
And Gary, I’m good on the blue-hairs. I haev enough around here, thanks.
July 2nd, 2008 at 11:49 am
165, from your link:
The trend could lead to an actual reduction in the state’s population as early as 2008, the study says
————————————-
But no reduction in population yet.
July 2nd, 2008 at 11:51 am
NNJ,
The LP/SP ratios are more a function of the dominant industry player in that particular market, and not necessarily indicative of the health of the market. This has been discussed ad nauseum here.
Hop in the time machine to March of 2006, more than two years ago:
http://njrereport.com/index.php/2006/03/08/northern-new-jersey-housing-market-weakens-in-first-quarter/#comment-4340
REwatch Says:
March 8th, 2006 at 10:57 pm edit
I agree with Grim, Burgdorf is also known in our town for pricing low to generate interest and bidding wars. I have witnessed homes priced clearly 100K under comps and then hear the realtors site these examples to support “hot” markets. Similarly, many homes are overpriced and sit. Getting a house at 50K under asking when it is not selling is not necessarily a DEAL. The price is what someone is willing to pay at the time. Every buyer must determinne their own “value”.
Realtors can list whatever price they want- only the market ultimately determines the price. List price is fairly arbitrary if you ask me and this over/under asking price stuff is really quite irrelevant.
July 2nd, 2008 at 11:51 am
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/18/opinion/nyregionopinions/18NJforsberg.html?partner=rssnyt&emc=rss
July 2nd, 2008 at 11:51 am
NNJ
link to the PDF of the actual report
http://policy.rutgers.edu/news/reports/RRR/RRR_October_2007.pdf
July 2nd, 2008 at 11:52 am
#134 NNJ the 10.9 months of supply can decrease pretty quickly or not. Only time will tell.
The 10.9 months of supply cannot decrease pretty quickly, due to the factors I addressed in the previous post.
And you did not address any of the factors that I mentioned in my original post.
Being totally reasonable and rational, what exactly is there in the enar future that would absorb that supply, and absorb it at such lofty prices, if you take into consideration the factors that I mentioned in my original post.
July 2nd, 2008 at 11:53 am
NNJ
You don’t seem to understand the implication of the relative population change. Where the population of the country as a whole is increasing drastically, and in NJ it is trending from bare increase to decrease, that indicates a LACK OF DEMAND FOR LIVING IN NJ.
July 2nd, 2008 at 11:55 am
another report from the rutgers group that is interesting:
New Rutgers Regional Report Issued, Reversal of Economic Fortune
Bloustein School Dean James W. Hughes and University Professor Joseph J. Seneca issued Rutgers Regional Report #27, Reversal of Economic Fortune:Regional and State Prosperity At Risk
http://policy.rutgers.edu/reports/
July 2nd, 2008 at 11:56 am
From my link:
So, New Jersey’s population is not declining. True, it is growing at a slower rate than in the past. But is that a bad thing for the nation’s most densely populated state?
This suggests that many who leave are retirees, while many who come are in their peak earning years.
July 2nd, 2008 at 11:56 am
NNJ,
If this debate you’re having with the board right now was a football game, you’d be down 47 - 6 with the ball on your own 8 yard line facing a third and 27 with 1:26 left in the game.
July 2nd, 2008 at 11:58 am
#162 NNJ: Median income up in a state with a declining job market. Should tell you something.
It appears that you adhere to the frank school of real estate, that prices will not drop, simply becasue they will not, everything else be damned.
July 2nd, 2008 at 11:58 am
136 bairen,
I’ve been to the ‘rest of the world’ and yes, outside the big prosperous cities, it’s littered with dirtbags. In the poorer countries, you find people in the slums wearing T-shirts with “L.A. Lakers - 2008 NBA Champions” on them. “Jose 3 Pack” , is not much different than his American counterpart.
July 2nd, 2008 at 11:58 am
“But no reduction in population yet.”
These stats are not too meaningful. Illegal alien population (with a lot of babies) has been growing rapidly. For every income-generating middle-class professional couple leaving NJ, 3 taxpayer money sucking illegals arrive (demanding tax-payer funded translation services, and free healthcare/medicaid and various other tax-payer funded benefits). It is a good deal for NJ politicians, but bad deal for the few remaining tax-payers.
July 2nd, 2008 at 11:59 am
NNJ Says:
July 2nd, 2008 at 11:51 am
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/18/opinion/nyregionopinions/18NJforsberg.html?partner=rssnyt&emc=rss
NNJ: This NY Times reporter is an imbecile. A chair bound paper pusher who should actually “think” beyond her thinking…..clown show….
July 2nd, 2008 at 11:59 am
Stick in SI, heck NJ doesn’t even have a single man made structure visible from outerspace. Heck living in SI is great, if you ever visit Mars just look for Fresh Kills and it will feel like you are back at home. Well minus the monte carlo SSs and IROCs
July 2nd, 2008 at 12:01 pm
gary,
And with a linebacker breathing down his neck.
July 2nd, 2008 at 12:02 pm
179, you mean she does not think like you so the analysis is all wrong.
July 2nd, 2008 at 12:02 pm
ADA [181],
LOL! Yes!
July 2nd, 2008 at 12:02 pm
NNJ
remind me - you purchased a house in NNJ when?
July 2nd, 2008 at 12:03 pm
#160 njp
“$10 billion was removed from the New Jersey economy in 2006, ”
So let’s raise taxes to make up the difference!!!!!
Come on, we can change our name to Due Jersey. That’ll give taxacussets a run for its money.
July 2nd, 2008 at 12:03 pm
NNJ,
Just punt and end the misery.
July 2nd, 2008 at 12:04 pm
NNJ
consider the following statement from the NY times rebuttal you linked to:
When only state-to-state movement is considered, New Jersey is indeed one of 24 states that are losing population to Southern and Western states. But such movement is only part of the story. When births, deaths and immigration are figured in — data that the Rutgers report did not include — only Louisiana and North Dakota have lost population in this decade.
That means that there is a net decrease in the tax base. newborns and many immigrants pay little or nothing in overall taxes and are certainly not many who leave are retirees, while many who come are in their peak earning years.
July 2nd, 2008 at 12:05 pm
In 2005 (the most recent year for which state data are available), more than 2.7 million income tax returns were filed in New Jersey, an increase of 6.2 percent from 2001. State income tax in 2005 was assessed on gross income of $258.1 billion, up 15 percent from 2001.
July 2nd, 2008 at 12:05 pm
NNJ
quoting jamil “These stats are not too meaningful. Illegal alien population (with a lot of babies) has been growing rapidly.”
NNJ, in case you’re misinterpreting jamil’s point, it is that the lower-income and underemployed segment of the population accounts for all of the actual population growth in NJ. The population of educated middle class individuals is shrinking rapidly.
If you’re counting on Mexican emigres to prop up NNJ home prices, you’ll be just another foreclosure victim.
July 2nd, 2008 at 12:07 pm
lost (45)-
Gefilte burrito…with purple horseradish and tomatillo salsa?