From Newsday:
Poll finds New Jerseyans glum about economy
New Jerseyans aren’t feeling especially festive with the Fourth of July holiday approaching. A new poll finds them increasingly worried about their finances.
The survey by Fairleigh Dickinson University’s Silberman College of Business and conducted by the university’s PublicMind poll center found 54 percent of New Jerseyans think they’re worse off financially than they were a year ago. That’s up from 48 percent in March and 41 percent in January.
Just one in five say they are better off financially than a year ago.
“This is the first time in the six years in which we’ve taken this measure that a majority of people say their condition has worsened,” said James Almeida, associate dean of the Silberman College of Business and a professor of entrepreneurship.
People are also less optimistic about the future. Just 34 percent think they’ll be better off a year from now.
“People who are otherwise confident of their personal financial standing are seeing negative indicators about the economy in general, and that makes them less sure of their own prospects for the future,” Almeida said.
The poll found younger people more optimistic about their future than older respondents, with 57 percent of those age 30 and under saying they’ll be better off a year from now, compared to 21 percent of those 60 and over.
The poll found 46 percent are using their federal economic stimulus checks to pay bills, with 23 percent saving it and 20 percent spending it.
“Middle-aged folks are using it to reduce debt,” Almeida said. “It’s a rational response to the perceived economic uncertainty.”
Though pessimistic about the economy, only 24 percent are somewhat or very worried that they might lose their job in the next 12 months.
From CNN/Money:
Manhattan real estate starts to soften
Even the lofty Manhattan real estate market is beginning to soften, according to reports released Wednesday by four of the city’s top real estate agencies.
Data from this year’s second quarter indicate two divergent trends; on a year-over-year basis, the volume of sales is down, while at the same time the average home price is rising.
“The constant bombardment of negative news every day is weighing on people’s psyche,” said Pamela Liebman, CEO and President of the Corcoran Group. Buyers “are looking for either real quality or real value and anything in between is suffering – the ordinary is not enough,” she added. That explains the sales slowdown.
…
Sales figures vary from agency to agency, but all report that volume is down significantly. Second quarter sales were down 38% from the same quarter a year ago according to the Corcoran report, which was put together in collaboration with PropertyShark.com. Sales were down 21.8% on a year-over-year basis, according to Prudential Douglas Elliman, and down 18% according to Brown Harris Stevens. Halstead saw a dip of 14%.
From the NY Times:
Deepening Cycle of Job Loss Seen Lasting Into ’09
As automakers dropped their latest batch of awful sales numbers on the market on Tuesday, reinforcing the gloom spreading across the economy, the troubles confronting American workers seemed to intensify.
Plummeting home prices have in recent months eliminated jobs for hundreds of thousands of people, from bankers and real estate agents to construction workers and furniture manufacturers. Tighter lending standards imposed by banks in the wake of huge mortgage losses have made it hard for many Americans to secure credit — the lifeblood of expansion in recent years — crimping the appetite of consumers, whose spending amounts to 70 percent of the economy.
Joblessness has accelerated, and employers have slashed working hours even for those on their payrolls, shrinking the size of paychecks just as workers need them the most.
…
Among economists, the sense is broadening that the troubles dogging the economy will be stubborn, leaving in place an uncomfortable combination of tight credit and scant job opportunities perhaps well into next year.
Mayor: End of RCAs ‘a disaster’ for Mid’town
Scharfenberger will work with other towns on plan of action
BY JAMIE ROMM Staff Writer
Middletown Mayor Gerard Scharfenberger reacted strongly this week to the passage of legislation that spells an end to the township’s use of Regional Contribution Agreements (RCA) to help fulfill its affordable housing obligation.
“I just don’t see where we are going to place these homes,” Scharfenberger said Monday. “It’s a 4-to-1 ratio of homes to affordable housing, which means we’d have to build an additional 8,000 homes just to satisfy our obligation. It’s going to place a burden on our town.”
“As far as Red Bank is concerned, it’s [RCAs] been a good thing,” Gurzo said. “The three RCAs that we’ve had in the past years have helped to benefit Red Bank.”
Towns concerned about COAH change
By Maria Prato-Gaines, Staff Writer
Agreements that would allow Monroe and Cranbury to shift some of their state-mandated affordable housing obligation to Perth Amboy could be in limbo if Gov. Jon S. Corzine signs legislation amending the state Fair Housing Act.
Cranbury is estimating that, under the most recently proposed third-round rules, it will need to build 469 affordable housing units — 309 more than under earlier versions of the rules. Monroe officials have not estimated the township’s obligation under the new rules.
Sen. Bill Baroni, a Republican who represents Cranbury and Monroe, voted against the bill at least in part because he hoped legislators would amend it to change the formula used to determine how many units new warehouse construction would generate. He said the current proposal — which sets 1.5 jobs per 1,000 square feet of warehouse space and one unit per 16 jobs — was too high. Cranbury is surveying local warehouses to determine what it believes is a more accurate figure.
Grim remember the farm house up by me with the case of bud light in the pics. Went off came back on new pics no interior ones. I have to get inside just to see.
Gsmls at 3811 this morn , all is well Frank.
I think they raised the price wasn’t it 210 before now 225, # 2542974 gsmls, Grim am I just remembering wrong?
Court Victory Gives Builders a Boost
The ruling overturns costly land-use fees, but an appeal is likely
By Martin C. Daks
Beleaguered homebuilders got some good news last week from an unlikely source: the Appellate Division of New Jersey’s Superior Court. The ruling struck down two long-standing ordinances that require developers to donate land, cash or recreational facilities to municipalities where they seek to build. Communities involved in the case are likely to appeal.
For years, New Jersey municipalities have enforced a patchwork of regulations that call for developers to make contributions before winning approval to put up residential or other complexes. The demands have increased as housing prices rose and undeveloped land became harder to find.
Initially, developers tolerated the requirements as a cost of doing business, but balked as towns grew more demanding.
#1
“The constant bombardment of negative news every day is weighing on people’s psyche,”
Blame the media. Nothing to do with tens of thousands of layoffs on Wall St. Or the tightening of credit. Or the collapse of the funny money mortgage that put people in homes they could not afford with conventional financing. Must the the work of those re terrorists 101 chirps about.
3: make 4 really tall towers with 1000 units?
It seems when they build these things they always are like 20-40 stories in an area where most things are shorter.
I’m #9…:)
#2
“Among economists, the sense is broadening that the troubles dogging the economy will be stubborn, leaving in place an uncomfortable combination of tight credit and scant job opportunities perhaps well into next year.”
Since over 95% of the eCONomists missed the housing bubble and its popping, this bit concerns me. Is the economy reaching its bottom and the eCONs are late to the party, or are things going to get much worse? I’, leaning to a lot worse.
Fortunately I see a helicopter in the distance being flown by a balding man with a beard dropping little bits of green paper.
Helicopter Ben will save the day!!!!! Deflation, Stagflation, or Hyperinflation (maybe all 3 over the next few years?) here we come.
Hi,
Been reading this blog for a couple of years, love it!
Happily renting right now but looking to buy also.
A 2Bed/2Bath condo in the Union City/Weehawken
area is available for 470K, it’s a new building on the Park Ave.
Is this a reasonable price?
Thanks in advance!
Jay 11 If there is no hurry on your rental situation & you have been reading? Why not hang out a year or so, you can only pay less. It’s not like they are all going to sell. I do not know the market in that area to talk about price, pret pret pret where are you.
From MarketWatch:
Mortgage applications rose 3.6% last week: MBA
Mortgage applications filed last week rose a seasonally adjusted 3.6% compared with the week before, as interest rates on fixed-rate mortgages eased slightly, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported on Wednesday.
Applications for the week ended June 27 were down 22.8% compared with the same week in 2007, the Washington-based MBA said.
Refinance applications were up 4.7% on a week-to-week basis, while applications for mortgages to purchase a home increased a seasonally adjusted 2.8%.
The four-week moving average for all loans as tracked by the MBA was down 1.2%.
From the WSJ:
Small Banks’ Reckoning Day Is Coming
Billions in Troubled Construction Loans
Promise to Pose Test for Regional Lenders
By MICHAEL CORKERY, JENNIFER S. FORSYTH and LINGLING WEI
July 2, 2008; Page C1
Wall Street is bracing for regional and small banks to fess up to large losses from their mounting volume of soured construction loans made primarily to home builders.
According to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., $45.4 billion of the $631.8 billion in construction loans outstanding at the end of the first quarter were delinquent. When banks announce second-quarter results in coming weeks, they are expected to report sharp increases in loans that builders can’t repay. Banks are also facing intensifying pressure from federal and state regulators to deal with the problem loans on their books.
That will put additional pressure on an already stressed financial system. Banks have begun to dump bad construction and land loans at discounts, curtail new lending and halt construction projects that are under way to preserve capital. Some analysts even see a wave of bank failures as a possibility.
From the WSJ:
Sharing the pain
Interesting.. Citizens Community Bank in Ridgewood has 42% of its construction loans not performing.
“The constant bombardment of negative news every day is weighing on people’s psyche,”
Negative news or a thinner wallet?
How would you like to live next to this guy?
Belmar man loses bid to boost neighbors’ property taxes
Monmouth County officials rejected a Belmar man’s request to raise his neighbors’ property taxes.
Steven Irwin, an attorney who specializes in tax appeals, argued last month that his neighbors aren’t paying their fair share and their property taxes should be up to four times higher.
Grim (2) and barien (10) “Among economists, the sense is broadening that the troubles dogging the economy will be stubborn, leaving in place an uncomfortable combination of tight credit and scant job opportunities perhaps well into next year.”
Well into next year – and longer…At this rate, folks my age may never be able to retire creating an even worse employment picture down the road.
I wish someone would think long term. With no raise (no COLA – just zippo)and 10% inflation it is my retirement savings and debt reduction that suffer. We are poised to have a bunch of boomers in the work force that should have been able to retire but can no longer afford to do so.
Jay@11,
Do you really want to live on Park Avenue for half a million? I’d hold off until that price will get you a condo on the real Park Ave.
Jay
You could live in Weehawken on Blvd East for less then that now. Why would you live in Union City?
From MarketWatch:
Layoff plans up 21% in first half of year
Heavy cost-cutting in the financial services pushed corporate layoff announcements up 21% in the first half of the year compared with last year, according to a tally released Wednesday by outplacement firm Challenger Gray & Christmas. Announced layoffs totaled 81,755 in June, up 47% compared with the previous June. For the second quarter, layoffs rose to 275,292, the most since late 2005. So far this year, announced job cuts have risen to 475,948, compared with 393,499 in the first six months of 2007. Financial companies announced 19,227 layoffs in June, bringing the total for 2008 to 85,258, 91% of which are related to the collapse of the mortgage market, Challenger said.
This was posted yesterday, but I’ll post it again anyway..
Upset homeowner shoots real estate agent in Mich.
A man upset about a property transaction fatally shot a real estate agent in the head during a meeting Tuesday morning in the victim’s office, authorities said.
Troy VanderStelt, 34, was pronounced dead at 12:45 p.m. at Mercy Health Partners Hackley Campus in Muskegon, said Muskegon County Prosecutor Tony Tague.
…
Tague said Johnson plotted to kill VanderStelt, took a .22-caliber semiautomatic handgun to the real estate agent’s office, got him preoccupied with some paperwork in a conference room, stood next to him, pulled out the gun and shot him once in the temple.
“We believe this was a planned-out execution-style murder of the real estate agent,” the prosecutor said.
Tague told WOOD-TV in Grand Rapids that Johnson believed that VanderStelt took advantage of him in a real estate deal. Johnson bought a house through him in 2005, then recently decided to sell it and went to a different real estate agent. The second agent told Johnson that, because of the slumping housing market, the home was not worth what he had paid for it.
#22
I’m surprised that doesn’t happen more often. Especially if someone put their life savings as a down payment.
frank,
see #14 & #21. I believe that’s the recession you’ve been looking for, or do spikes in layoffs and massive loan defaults only happen when times are good?
The next devastating bubble, even president boob has an interesting , concerned statement in here. It is a long read but worth the time.
http://www.lacitybeat.com/cms/story/detail/house_of_cards/7181/
Jim
What, no NJRER?
10 Best Gloom And Doom Sites
1. Daily Reckoning
2. Clusterf*** Nation
3. The Big Picture
4. DollarCollapse.Com
5. Angry Bear
6. Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis
7. Naked Capitalism
8. Peter Schiff
9. GREG MANKIW’S BLOG
10. The mess that greenspan made
[22],
2008 definition of risk management.
Sounds like the day trader in Atlanta.
“Manhattan real estate starts to soften”
That CAN’T be true! Frank said there were 30% year over year gains this year!
“Iraq sues companies over oil-for-food kickbacks
Chevron, DaimlerChrysler, Kodak among firms named in suit”
http://tinyurl.com/4chwm5
SAS
ADP numbers out this morning, question is: Are they accurate?
From MarketWatch:
ADP shows biggest job loss in nearly 6 years
Private-sector firms in the United States lost 79,000 jobs in June, the biggest loss since November 2002, according to the ADP employment index released Wednesday. Employment in the services sector fell by 3,000, the first decline since November 2002. Job gains in May were revised lower to 25,000 from 40,000 earlier. After adding in some 20,000 government jobs that are created in a typical month but not included in ADP’s index, the ADP number suggests that about 60,000 nonfarm payroll jobs were lost in June. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch now expect 40,000 net payroll jobs were lost in June, following a loss of 49,000 in May.
Repost from last night:
I know there’s a lot of talk here about newer agents with no experience and how they handle sales. What do you all think is the percentage of agents that have been in the game a long time but still won’t come to reality in terms of pricing?
Jay,
Re Union City, make sure you look into the RE taxes on the place. If it’s a new development Union City tends to give tax breaks for a certain number of years but standard property tax rates in that town are through the roof.
All Hail the Mighly Brokerage Trust Corp..
From the WSJ:
Paulson to Call for Expansion
Of Regulatory Powers
By TOM BARKLEY
July 2, 2008 8:17 a.m.
WASHINGTON — U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson will call Wednesday for an expansion of regulatory powers to ensure that the failure of a nonbank financial institution doesn’t threaten the whole financial system.
Mr. Paulson, in the latest demonstration of how the near-collapse of Bear Stearns Cos. is changing the regulatory landscape, will say in a speech in London that a new resolution process is needed to deal with firms such as investment banks facing failure.
“The financial landscape has changed, and nonbank financial institutions play a significantly greater role,” Mr. Paulson will say, according to prepared remarks. “We need to consider broadly the resolution regime in light of these changes.”
His comments mark a further evolution of the Treasury’s plan for a complete overhaul of the U.S. regulatory system. A blueprint released in March provided broad recommendations for realigning the patchwork system of supervisors to be more effective, with the Federal Reserve seen taking on the role of market stability supercop.
more writedowns?
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/080702/merrill_research_ubs.html?.v=2
“Two other people who directly profited from Oil-For-Food scandal .. are Obama’s Arab backers Antoin Rezco and billionaire Nadhni Auchi, who were both in it up to their necks. Auchi .. made most of his money as a fixer and conduit between Saddam Hussein .. allegedly using bank he owned in Luxembourg to launder oil for food money for Saddam. Auchi and Rezco are particularly tight and Obama appeared at a party given for Auchi by Rezco at Rezco’s mansion in 2004 .. Auchi lent millions of dollars to Barack Obama’s fundraiser via Rezco just weeks before that complex series of transactions between Rezko and Barack Hussein Obama involving the 2005 purchase of Obama’s Chicago mansion and Rezko’s wife’s purchase of an adjoining landlocked parcel from the same owner on the same day.”
what? I’m in moderation again.
SAS
“Mansion ‘mistake’ piles the pressure on Barack Obama”
http://tinyurl.com/39t78f
SAS
#32 – the Federal Reserve seen taking on the role of market stability supercop
Nice to see they’re being honest about what they view their role as. I love our free market!
June Homebuilder Recap from Smith Barney
Housing data released in June shows that weakness continues to persist in the overall
homebuilding sector. Housing starts fell 3.3% to 975,000, which was the lowest
reading since March 1991. Building permits fell 1.3%. Builders’ confidence matched
a record low in June as the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo
sentiment index fell to 18 from 19 in May (readings under 50 mean most respondents
view current conditions as poor). New home sales fell 2.7% to a 512,000 annual
pace, which represents the second lowest level since 1991. Compared with a year
earlier, new homes sales were down 40%. The supply of homes at the current sales
rate rose to 10.9 months’ worth versus 10.7 months in April. Existing home sales,
though, were up 2% for May; however, sales were down 16% compared to last year
and at the current sales pace, about 11 months worth of inventory is on the market.
RealtyTrac, a foreclosure listing service, reported that foreclosure filings for the
month of May were up nearly 50%.
During the month of June, Moody’s and Fitch downgraded a number of homebuilders, citing expectations for continued revenue decline and challenging conditions in the overall sector. This follows a slew of downgrades by S&P last month. We believe that homebuilders’ credit ratings will remain under pressure for the rest of the year despite efforts by builders to shore up liquidity as credit metrics will most likely continue to deteriorate. Spreads widened during the month for both the high-yield and high-grade homebuilders as Hovnanian and Lennar reported weak operating results and Lennar’s joint venture LandSource commenced Chapter 11 proceedings. While Lennar claims
the debt is nonrecourse back to the company, investors remember what happened to
Technical Olympic and the “nonrecourse” debt at Transeastern. According to Citi’s
High-Yield Market Index, spreads for the homebuilding subsector widened 55bp
from June 1 through June 26, outperforming the broader High-Yield Market Index
which saw spreads widen by 81bp. According to Citi’s BIG Credit Index, spreads for
high-grade homebuilders were wider by 22bp, underperforming the broad BIG Index
which saw spreads widen 17bp.
I may have a very interesting job opportunity based in lakewood. can anyone offer any commentary on the rental situation in that area?
I wouldnt want to live in the toms river area (aka cancer land), but dont know the region very well. I would have to relocate to that area as i would have a 2+ hour commute from my current location
Kettle,
I grew up in Toms River (no cancer) but can understand why you would not want to live there. Although, North Dover (TR) is extremely nice.
In re: Lakewood, unless you don’t mind renting in the “woods” or closer towards Howell, the center of “town” is predominately Hasidic Jews and Mexican. At least that is the way it was 10 years ago, so who knows now.
Freehold could be an option too.
i wouldnt have to live in lakewood, but would prefer to keep the commute under 30 min assuming i can find the sort of home/community i want
njpatient: A reminder to you this morning about Mrs. Patients take on NJ real estate.
From MarketWatch:
Consumer delinquencies rise in first quarter: ABA
Delinquency rates for home equity lines of credit and bank cards rose during the first quarter, the American Bankers Association reported Wednesday, citing ongoing housing market stress and general economic weakness. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the percentage of HELOC accounts more than 30 days past due rose 14 basis points to 1.1%, reaching the highest rate recorded since ABA started the series in 1987. Delinquencies for bank cards – credit cards provided by a bank — rose 13 basis points to 4.51% in the first quarter, compared with the five-year average delinquency rate of 4.40%.
(emphasis added)
“the center of “town” is predominately Hasidic Jews and Mexican.”
Gefilte Fish Burrito anyone?
44 Hehe
I just threw up in my mouth a little
From Bloomberg:
Overdue Home-Equity Credit Lines Rise Most Since 1987, ABA Says
Consumers fell behind on loans secured by their homes at the fastest pace in two decades in the first quarter, signaling deeper distress in the U.S. economy, the American Bankers Association reported.
Home-equity lines of credit at least 30 days past due rose 14 basis points to 1.1 percent of accounts for the quarter, the Washington-based group said today in a statement. Delinquent credit-card accounts increased 13 basis points to 4.51 percent, the highest level since 2006.
“People are looking for any source of funds to pay their daily expenses,” Carol Kaplan, spokeswoman for the bankers’ group, said yesterday in an interview. “It’s a sign of the overall condition of the economy that people are having trouble making their payments.”
…
The rise in delinquent home-equity accounts was the biggest since the ABA began collecting data in 1987, Kaplan said. It was also the highest in 11 years. Delinquencies often don’t peak until late in an economic slowdown.
ABA chief economist James Chessen said in the statement that because of job losses, slow income growth and falling real estate and equity markets, there is “little relief” in the coming months.
…
“The average consumer is tapped out and burned out,” billionaire investor Wilbur Ross said yesterday in a Bloomberg Television interview. “They kind of used their house as an ATM machine with a couple bedrooms attached to it.”
** Off -topic**
The boy was camping alone in his front yard and was fine when his mother checked on him at 9 p.m., according to Karback. When his mother checked again 90 minutes later, the child was gone — but his sneakers, T-shirt and a flashlight were still in the tent. He was wearing only sweat pants when he disappeared.
The boy’s mother called police, who assembled some 100 searchers to locate the child. Karback said the county K-9 unit, Pequannock police and State Police helicopter joined borough authorities in the search.
Link
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2008/07/lincoln_park_boy_missing_from.html
Who has to pay for her stupidity? The phrases that scream stupid in that article are: 11 years old – Camping in front yard, and alone!
Is it me???
KL
Anyone interested in a start-up that focuses on mining garbage dumps for trace metals?
Reflections: The Death of Gallium
17 – Neighbors that piss you off.
A friend of mine had a neighbor with a dog that they would always let run out and defecate/urinate wherever it wanted. Of course the dog always chose to defecate on my friends lawn. He tried talking to the neighbor about it, but they were quite rude. So my friend tried a different tact. Everyday whenever the dog defecated on his lawn he would collect the dogs poop and keep it in a bucket. Than when the bucket was full he would fill it with water and stuff all the poop into the neighbors mailbox. The neighbor finally got the message and started walking the dog.
What? Bailout isn’t an option now? C’mon, you can’t take the cake away. Or has “moral hazard” become the new “strong dollar”?
From MarketWatch:
Brokerage-firm failure has to be an option: Paulson
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson will stress in a speech later Wednesday that federal regulators must craft a system to allow brokerage firms to fail without threatening the overall financial system.
“For market discipline to constrain risk effectively, financial institutions must be allowed to fail,” Paulson said in excerpts of a speech he will deliver in London.
“It is clear that some institutions, if they fail, can have a systemic impact, so we must give regulators the authorities to limit that impact and facilitate an orderly failure,” Paulson said.
You can find whatever you want at almost all price points….there is a very large Hassidic community down there so realize that there will be large swaths of area where you are persona non grata…
realize the further you place yourself where you are neither easily commutable to the north or near a beach community, the drastically cheaper the price….
Talk about bad neighbors, my brothers lives on a dead end street and the 60 old across the street has torrets so she likes to come out and yell FU to the kids and even better when she drives down the street she leans her head out the car window swerves to pretend to hit you and yells FU to everyone even little kids. Even better she moved in when she was 5 years old so she has been doing this for 55 years on my brothers dead end block.
39 kettle
I wouldn’t live in Lakewood itself, it is pretty nasty. Within a half hour that may be OK are the Herbertsville section of Brick, Point Pleasant, Brielle, Manasquan, and the Ramtown section of Howell, Freehold or Jackson. I’m not as familiar with Toms River, but around Rt. 70 and Vermont Rd there are some apartments and it is very close to Lakewood. I think it is Toms River or Dover.
I live in Brick on the border of Point Pleasant so ask me anything. Wouldn’t you rather buy my townhouse ;)
kettle
if you would rather take it off of the board feel free to e-mail me. It is my handle at hotmail.
re: #47 – He was camping alone because the rest of the parents in the neighborhood would not let precious little Taylor,Kyle,Reece Shannon,Tyler,Bailey or Amber camp with him.
#41 kettle1
What kind of community are you looking for?
Also keep in mind if you go for a shore town the traffic is going to be lousy from Memorial day to mid September.
I grew up in a shore town in Monmouth county and the traffic during the beach season was not fun. I did like October and April a lot though.
Liar’s Moneyball
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aH545r_muZkU&refer=home
#11 Jay,
Do the math and compare the costs of buying the condo vs the rent you are paying now. I suspect the morgate+taxex+condo fees will be far higher than your rent.
Then decide if you want to pay the additional amount to be a condo owner as opposed to a renter.
Also factor in that we are just in the beginning of a declining and stagnant market so if you want to move up to a bigger place in a year or two you may have to take a hit on today’s prices.
If you are very keen on buying, I would suggest not paying more than 400K to protect yourself to some extend from further declines in property values.
Seriously, where is pret? I want his observations….
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=a05lmF8fkldM&refer=economy
Congress to Halt Closing of Unprofitable Starbucks
“(2008-07-02) — Democrats in Congress today plan to introduce a bill to halt the recently-announced closing of some 600 Starbucks coffee stores, noting that the displacement of 12,000 Starbucks baristas would overwhelm government aid offices not prepared to handle so many clients for whom English is a second language”
35 sas
Interesting that you didn’t post a link to that story. Why?
“If the effort fails to revive the flagging stores, Rep. Pelosi said Democrats would “seriously consider nationalizing the coffee industry to ensure the free flow of java at fair prices.”
“This is just another one of our heroic Democrat efforts to protect Americans from the impact of the Bush economic policies,” said Rep. Pelosi. “Under this president, America has become a cold and desolate place where corporations cut unprofitable activities to focus on increasing the bottom line, and returning value to shareholders. When Democrats retake the White House next year, we will reverse that trend.””
42 3B
Thank you my man. I will write it up when I get to the office.
43 grim
“On a seasonally adjusted basis, the percentage of HELOC accounts more than 30 days past due rose 14 basis points to 1.1%, reaching the highest rate recorded since ABA started the series in 1987”
That CAN’T be true! Pretorius said the 1992 RE bust was worse than this one!
Huge gold find reported in Ireland
(CNN) — A mining company has found what may be the largest gold deposit ever found in Britain or Ireland, the company’s chairman said Tuesday.
Drill samples indicate more than 1 million ounces of gold may lie below what is now rolling Irish countryside, said Richard Conroy, the chairman of Dublin, Ireland-based Conroy Diamonds and Gold.
With the price of gold near historic highs, the find could be worth as much as $300 million on the market, Conroy told CNN.
@60
Ha! I almost got really angry, very funny!
Rhyming
“Who has to pay for her stupidity?”
Unfortunately, her son.
#31
“What do you all think is the percentage of agents that have been in the game a long time but still won’t come to reality in terms of pricing?”
just a guess, but how about 90%?
seems to me the general MO of almost all agents is to “buy the listing” by suggesting an egregiously high initial list price. thereafter, it is an uphill battle to get the seller to lower the price.
tourette’s, John, tourette’s….swerve!
““Under this president, America has become a cold and desolate place where corporations cut unprofitable activities to focus on increasing the bottom line, and returning value to shareholders.”
that would be funnyif it were true. I wish it were true. It isn’t.
Bush Confident in Housing Plan
(NORTH LITTLE ROCK, Ark.) — President Bush expressed confidence Tuesday he will reach a deal with Congress on a housing-rescue plan, but only if lawmakers show “less politics.”
“I think we can get us a bill,” Bush said. “But it’s going to require less politics and more focus on keeping our minds on who we need to help, and that’s the homeowner.”
Manhattan Second-Quarter Apartment Sales Drop Most Since 1998
July 2 (Bloomberg) — Manhattan apartment sales dropped the most for a second quarter since 1998 and unsold inventory approached an eight-year record, two signs prices may be poised to drop in the nation’s most expensive urban housing market.
More at: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a05lmF8fkldM&refer=home
okay patient, the story???
“The constant bombardment of negative news every day is weighing on people’s psyche.”
See, this is the kind of bullsh*t rhetoric that these f*cking whinning b*stards spew that make me want to ram their heads into a f*cking wall. Incredible. Hey Sparkles, don’t blame the media just because they repo’d your leased “C” class and you have to settle for knock-off Gucci.
Try doing a little research and you might find that your industry bilked, swindled and fleeced every crumb from the residents of Whoville. You’re not privy to a stream of commission checks because you have cute shape. Ok, Giggles?
Let’s keep the news objective here….
Where’s the gloom and doom???
Manhattan apartment sales drop, but prices climb
“Apartment prices in Manhattan posted double-digit gains even as tight credit conditions and continued unrest on Wall Street slowed sales for the second straight quarter, according to two reports released Wednesday.
Real estate firm Prudential Douglas Elliman said the median sales price of a Manhattan apartment, including both condos and cooperatives, soared nearly 15 percent in the second quarter to $1.025 million — or nearly the cost of five U.S. median-priced homes.”
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5iPbvX3zBODz12TR4yvJ2W-kjq41wD91LIURO0
Grim, 48
I mentioned that yesterday, and there are already a few startups looking into it. But hey i would always be game, there is the potential for serious money in that in the near future
I love this part of ChiFi’s post”
No Safety in Numbers
There’s seldom any safety in numbers, and the more parlous (sic) the situation, the more dangerous it is to be in it with a lot of other people. London during an outbreak of the bubonic plague, the Superdome during Hurricane Katrina, the New Jersey suburbs: People are always clustering together precisely where and when they should not.”
The NJ suburbs as perilous. Precisely what I tell the wife.
From MarketWatch:
U.S. May factory orders rise 0.6%
U.S. May durable goods orders flat
U.S. May factory shipments rise 0.1%
U.S. May factory inventories rise 0.5%
re: #65 Huge gold find reported in Ireland
ever see the 1993 movie Leprechaun starring
Jennifer Aniston?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fEY0h-rAceA
NJpatient,
I agree, however I was wondering who pays for the massive police search? I mean -alone- 11 years old- front of house?? come on……
KL
thanks for the replies, on lakewood. it sounds like i would want to expand my commute range to 40-45 min if this proposal becomes serious.
From Bloomberg:
Merrill Lynch Estimates Cut by Oppenheimer’s Whitney
Merrill Lynch & Co. had its second- quarter earnings estimate cut by Oppenheimer & Co.’s Meredith Whitney on expectations subprime writedowns will be as large as $5.8 billion.
Merrill, the third-biggest U.S. securities firm, will probably lose $4.21 a share, Whitney said in a report today, compared with her earlier estimate for a profit of 20 cents for the New York-based company.
Analysts and investors are reversing their predictions that the worst of the credit-market contraction is over after more than $400 billion of writedowns and losses by the world’s largest financial institutions. Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. last month increased its loss estimate for Merrill and more than doubled its prediction for the firm’s subprime writedown, to $5.4 billion.
I’d rather be dead laying on the corner of 35th street and 9th Avenue, with a hypo sticking out of my arm, and a transexual singing over me than alive in Ocean County, NJ. Do I make myself clear? We bought our first house in the Toms River area and lived there for three years. I wanted to hang myself. When I hit that Parkway North entrance after we sold the house, it was like taking a crap for the first time in 36 months.
ahhh well, thank you for clearing up any questions i had gary!
Haven’t been here in a few days. If I can’t start reading by 10am it’s hard to keep up :)
Don’t know if any of you caught the poop, I mean scoop. The infamous 25 Burning Hollow Rd sold for almost 50% of judgment last week.
It’s going to be interesting to see what happens with it.
Say it ain’t so..
From Bloomberg:
Teens Skip $50 Jeans in Squeeze of $4 Gas, Summer-Job Shortage
The financial pressures of adults are finally catching up with American teenagers. Since summer jobs dried up, gasoline prices topped $4 a gallon and parents ran out of spare cash, teens have had to cool it on spending for clothes.
“I’ve had to cut down on a bunch of stuff because I don’t like spending my own money,” said 14-year-old Haley McClelland from Waldwick, New Jersey, who was shopping at the nearby Paramus Park mall. She said her parents are “more careful” about what they give her.
…
“Gas is the main thing right now,” said Pete McCullough, a 19-year-old from Oradell, New Jersey, who can’t afford the designer clothing he favors. “Just coming to the mall costs $4.” McCullough said he earns what he spends, juggling school with construction work.
Number 83
POST OF THE DAY!
Ahh, good ol’ Burning Hollow.
Neighbor buys it at a premium price without even bothering to look in the window.
Plastered in urine and feces, it’ll need to have the flooring, wallboard, and other finish carpentry torn out and replaced.
At 50% off, it will be a profitable project.
/////////////////////////////////
gary,,, my kind of guy
and poor haley
rhymingrealtor Says:
July 2nd, 2008 at 10:09 am
NJpatient,
I agree, however I was wondering who pays for the massive police search? I mean -alone- 11 years old- front of house?? come on……
KL
KL: I walked 1/2 mile through city streets from elementary school when I was 6. I took the subway alone when I was 11, and back and forth to school for an hour+ from the time I was 12. In NYC in the 1980’s. To kill time in the summer, I would ask my mom for a token and I would ride the subway all day and all over the city.
gary:
perhaps you could try Bergen
lodi,garfield,wallington,rutherford,
teaneck,englewood,palisades park,
fort ree,
wonderful towns with great pricing
Sounds like Manhattan is about 2 years behind the curve. This makes sense because declining RE markets tends to rot from the outside in (exurbs toward the city).
In 2006, you could have written this exact same story about New Jersey. Sales down, inventory climbing, homes sitting longer, but prices generally holding up; the RE bulls congratulated themselves, declaring a “soft landing”; a mere flattening of prices as the market takes a breather.
Unless the law of supply & demand is suspended when you pass through the Lincoln Tunnel, falling sales and rising inventory will take its toll on prices.
Gary, I have to ask where in TR? Even within a mile of your house, just tell me.
Home prices still make no sense. The estate sale I talked about buying this week on my brothers house that I could get for 790k on a block where similar homes sold for a million earlier this summer sounds like a deal but I could rent a similar home for 4K. 400K out of my bond fond at 4% to put down will cost me 16K a year and the 400K mortgage at 6.5% will run me 31K a year plus taxes are 15K because although house is now 790K it is taxed like a million dollar home. So I am up to 16+31+15=52K a year to own a house I can rent for 4×12=48K a year. Even worse back in the mid nineties rentals were going at 10x annual rent roll. So that would put the house at 480K instead of the 790K. Two neighbors are furious on that block. Two similar homes one in the summer 2007 and one just two months ago for over a million sold on that block recently one just two houses away. Nice comp, you paid 1.1 million for a house in April 2008 that you could of had for 790K in July 2008. Ouch.
#60 & #62 jamil
You do realize that is a satire site?
77 nom
Parlous is an anglicism properly used there
BREAKING NEWS:
Fugitive financier Samuel Israel has been arrested, CNBC reports.
#86
“I’ve had to cut down on a bunch of stuff because I don’t like spending my own money,” said 14-year-old Haley ”
Haley, become a politician and spend other’s people money instead, or a “sophisticated investor” and lose other people’s money while you collect phat fees.
94 bairen: uh…are you 10 year old or do you just not understand sarcasm?
79 Sean
I went to grade school with her. She thought I was cute. That was a long time ago.
GM Bankruptcy `Not Impossible,’ Merrill Analyst Says
How stupid is this, Rick Wagnor shoud do a press releast that Merrill Bankruptcy is not impossible.
#83 gary,
Toms River is awful, but then, so is the rest of Ocean County.
A cultural wasteland of strip malls, big box chains, and toothless tattooed women.
Obama got a discount on his mortgage.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/07/01/AR2008070103008.html
Heck I walked eight blocks to first grade everyday in the Bronx what is the big deal. That 11 year old needs to man up.
#98 jamil
not 10 years old. From your previous political posts was not sure if you understood.
Repost from yesterday.
Montclair, NJ.
In 2006, 252 houses were under contract.
In 2008, 198 houses were under contract.
In 2006, 61% went above asking price.
In 2008, 40% went above asking price.
mark [90],
I already own a house here in North Jersey since 2001.
Rich [87],
I’m juiced up today! Lotsa coffee! lol!
#74 gary: Thanks gary. Now one for the sellers please.
80 rhyming
I hear you. I view the mother as grossly irresponsible, too, and if SHE had disappeared as a result, I’d say she should pay to be found. But I don’t think finding the child should be subject to his mother’s ability to pay.
I’d happily make many folks pay for the government services they cause to be used (some obvious parallels are mountain climbers or extreme skiers who require rescuing).
I have a general realtor question for Grim, Clot, or any other honest realtors on this board (the rest of you stop snickering):
Do realty offices get and keep access to review county land records (deeds, mortgages, liens, etc.) on line?
For example, Union County has a website that permits you to view land records, if you register as a user. Registered users pay $600 per year and can register a certain number of people (more people cost more money).
I was told by a realtor who shall remain nameless that she did not know how to get access to land records. She works in a HUGE office. This did not pass the smell test for me. Am I right in thinking that the realtor was less than honest with me, or would realty offices simply never have a need to look up land records so they don’t subscribe or know how?
I am anticipating getting a response to the effect that her office doesn’t have a need for such access, and want to be able to speak authoritatively when I reply.
Secondary Market [92],
Draw a two mile radius around the Hooper Avenue/Rt 37 center-point. But it really doesn’t matter… I have an uncle in Brick for years, one in Seaside Park for years and my parents had a 2nd home in Lacey/Berkeley since the late 70’s. It was a nice place to visit.. let’s leave it at that. :)
#75 frank: Don’t be dense. Look behind the numbers, do your homework.
The doom and gloom is spreading to Manhattan. Nothing you can do about it.
“Merrill Lynch & Co. had its second- quarter earnings estimate cut by Oppenheimer & Co.’s Meredith Whitney on expectations subprime writedowns will be as large as $5.8 billion. ”
That CAN’T be true!! bi and S&P said there would be no more writedowns!!
[95] NJP,
That’s why you are in BIGLAW and I am not.
(what, were you the $%&@# EIC of law review???)
83 gary
you’re not messin’ around today!
Since when does hanging out in one of the junked cars in the front lawn constitute camping?
Probably not the case but who lets their kid camp out in the front lawn? Did the other kids lay claim to the backyard?
gary in rare form today! You go, gary!
Of course, all those Nort Joisey denizens that moved into Ocean County will want to lynch you!
Hey gas ain’t $2 a gallon and it ain’t ever gonna be again. The commute to their jobs is consuming half their wages, and the time it takes to get off the Toms River exit has gone up exponentially since gary last lived there.
gary…..can you show us the “rough draft” of your latest letter to Realtors??
#110 gary,
I spent a year once on Hooper ave. I think it was on a Tuesday…
FYI Hooper ave is like Rt 1 between Woodbridge Mall and Menlo Park Mall. Without the ambiance.
112 njpatient,
I think they’re going to be coming up with a new word for write-downs.
Ok
here’s the funny story
We’re moving on Monday, and yesterday the mover called Mrs. Patient wanting to inquire whether we were still planning to move.
Mrs. Patient: Yes
Mover: You’re sure
Mrs. Patient: Of course
Mover: It’s just that we keep showing up for jobs that get cancelled at the last minute
Mrs. Patient: Well, we’re definitely moving.
Mover: Yeah, well, last week I had two folks scheduled to move who were closing on homes, and both closings fell through at the last minute.
Mrs. Patient: Oh.
Mover: We had one guy who was all loaded up already when his closing fell through and we had nowhere to put his stuff.
Mrs. Patient: Well, we’re moving from one rental to another, so we’re definitely moving.
Mover: OK. Sorry, it’s just that THIS KEEPS HAPPENING!
#104 NNJ: God Bless all those buyers. Some may really need it. In the end it changes nothing.
I will ask you what I asked frnak yesterday, to which he did not respond.
What will keep house prices in Montclair and all of North Jersey from continuing to decline, and yes even free fall?
1. Proximity to NYC and Wall St jobs? Ah, No. Layoffs everyday on Wall St, and the contagion is spreading to those areas that service Wall St, as well as non- Wall St related areas.
2. The robust economy of the state of NJ, that is creating high paying jobs, that can absorb all the real estate inventory for sale? Ah, No.
3. The ever widening credit market crisis, which is making getting mtg money harder and harder? Ah No.
4. The inflationary spiral we are in, with ever rising food and energy costs, you know $4 gasoline? Ah, No.
5. Or finally will it be the Fed tightening that will be commencing over the balance left of this year? And again I say, Ah, No.
So as I said to frank yesterday pelase provide one valid reason as to why prices in north Jersey, the NYC metro area, or whatever you want to call it, will not continue to decline, and yes perhaps even free fall.
@110 Gary,
Agreed, I have not turned back after leaving. Even the Mall in OC is pathetic. And I think in NJ, malls are definitely a barometer for the surrounding area.
118 Tom
“I think they’re going to be coming up with a new word for write-downs.”
Surprised they haven’t yet. “Downsizing of receivables”, or “Asset contraction” or something like that. Of course, write-down is itself the new word for “Loss”.
#119 njpatient: Good story.
NJP, PA bound already?
117 bairen
“like Rt 1 between Woodbridge Mall and Menlo Park Mall. Without the ambiance.”
Taking a right on Rt 1 from the Woodbridge Mall is even worse.
I do like both those malls with kids though. The Little Patients are completely mad about the Rainforest Cafe, and even though they’ve downsized the train and carousel at the Woodbridge, the Little Patients still love them and the silly little playground that’s always filled with Indians – we’ve spent many a rainy day there.
“NJP, PA bound already?”
Not yet. Plan is still to retreat to Philly in the winter of ’09/10. The new lease runs through January 2010. I figure that’s a year before the bottom of the RE market, but I’ll be comfortable buying at that point.
The top ten things you’ll never find in Ocean County:
10) Nordstroms
9) Italian Bread
8) A good dentist
7) sidewalks
6) a four story building
5) a Zagat’s guide
4) Martha Stewart
3) a hill
2) a train town
And the number one thing you’ll never find in Ocean County:
1) Graydon and Ellery
bairen Says:
July 2nd, 2008 at 10:59 am
#110 gary, I spent a year once on Hooper ave. I think it was on a Tuesday…
FYI Hooper ave is like Rt 1 between Woodbridge Mall and Menlo Park Mall. Without the ambiance.
b: here is a live video of what it looks like over there right now…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kLokDBOb7-U
#127 gary,
You’re on a roll today.
RE: #109
Nom,
RE office doesn’t necessarily have to have access to that site particularly if it cost $’s to subscribe. No offense to RE agents, but maybe this RE pro is not aware of the fact that this information is a public record and all one has to do is go to the county seat (Elizabeth for Union Cty) to the clerks office or the register of deeds office to obtain those records through a simple search. If you are in close proximity to the county seat, why don’t you just do it
yourself thus freeing yourself from the ignorance and most likely deceptive RE agents advice.
Hirono
bairen,
We can compile the “best of gary” just from this one post today. LOL!
bairen
gary is butter.
#91 RentinginNJ
I’ve actually looking been looking to buy a condo in Manhattan and so far nothing I want is coming into my price range. But I’m hopeful about the next year.
Do you think a RE recovery would work in the same way ie will NYC improve before the ex/sub urbs? Wall street is obviously tanking but it appears the city does have other industries which are not.
129 3b, it’s call supply and demand. Unless household formation has taken a nosedive, the demand will revert back to average. And housing starts shows decrease in supply. So the 10.9 months of supply can decrease pretty quickly or not. Only time will tell.
I mean 120, 3b.
#125 njp I try to avoid going to a mall as much as possible.
I was at Freehold mall this past weekend. Found it very depressing.
1) Nothing besides a lemonade, chocolate, and a magazine/book I would be interested in buying.
2) Thought of the billions spent on building and maintaing these malls across the US. What a waste of money and natural resources.
3) Doing some people watching I kept wondering “How did the US get to be the world’s super power? I can’t believe the rest of the world looks as dumb and sloppy as most NJ residents, one of the wealthies per capita states in the US”
4) I had the same thought as (3) at a rest stop on the NJ turnpike 2 weeks ago.
So you people are saying don’t move any farther south then Monmouth County?
I tried to compromise with DH. I told him I would move to NJ if we could live by the beach. He told me his commute would kill him. I told him my commute would be double what his would be. He said well we’re not moving by the beach. So I said well we’re not moving to NJ. Great stuck in F@ucking Staten Island. Someone shoot me.
#75
“Real estate firm Prudential Douglas Elliman said the median sales price of a Manhattan apartment, including both condos and cooperatives, soared nearly 15 percent in the second quarter to $1.025 million — or nearly the cost of five U.S. median-priced homes.”
…due to a change in the mix of properties sold.
“Do you think a RE recovery would work in the same way ie will NYC improve before the ex/sub urbs?”
Bottom may be some time in the next two or three years, but “recovery” won’t occur for five to eight years, so don’t worry about it. For now, Manhattan has some catching up to do (which it appears is finally in the works).
Look for the first undeniable price drops in Manhattan this winter, and next winter it’ll be “Warriors, come out to play-ay”.
Manhattan: 2010
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xITVFgxcDIg
140 Patient
My favorite scene from “Warriors”! Love it!
NJP,
How much off-peak can we expect manhattan to fall in the next 2-3 years?
Manhattan: Updated bathroom, circa 2010
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ISkLxfAOTo8&feature=related
NNJ
Dont forget that NJ is currently experience a mass exodus of its primary tax base. The only reason the numbers are not hugely negative is that the newborns and low income influx balances the numbers. But the incoming lower income people and the newborns certainly arent going to be buying in brigadoon anytime soon
142 ADA
IMHO, Manhattan prices down from today by about 20%-25% as of the end of the 2010/11 winter.
144, Population in NJ is growing and so is median income. What is this mass exodus you are talking about and where are they moving to?
Manhattan: 2010
’72nd and Broadway is no longer a safe place to play stickball.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JawHRggFPGo&feature=related
NJP,
Fingers crossed.
@137
Yes, the Mason Dixon line runs along the top half of Ocean County.
133 ada: Nobody knows how it will go in NYC. My new FOB co-worker (flush with non-USD currency) picked up one of the new condos for a “great price”, which, according to the helpful and honest RE professional, was sensational 5% off the (listing?) price.
However, keep in mind that in 2009 the “Guliani cops” may be off the streets (direct quote from the left-wing candidate who almost won last time). If crime rates and taxes go up with the new mayor, you can pick up your luxury condo – surrounded by housing projects – for $50k (comes with 50k property taxes and hobo neighbours, and daily rapes and murders).
146 NNJ
“Population in NJ is growing and so is median income.”
You’re not using your noggin’. Incomes always rise, but not so much when you control for inflation. Real incomes in NJ are not currently rising. Further, compare population trends in NJ to the rest of the country. I’ll get you some numbers, but you’re horribly wrong on this one (you are beginning to make a bit of a habbit of this).
lostinny [137],
If you like shopping exclusively in Kohls and eating lunch in Friendly’s next to 27 blue-haired people, then move to Ocean County.
[130] Hirono,
Thx. I do plan to go to Eliz. to check. I used to search titles so it should not take long.
My point was not that it was required, but whether, as a matter of business necessity, an office would ordinarily have a subscription to the land records system. I am not a realtor, but it seems to me that realty offices and realtors have a need, from time to time, to see mortgages, deeds, liens, etc. Maybe they don’t, or it isn’t something that concerns them (after all, that is what settlement services are for). It just strikes me as the sort of thing a realy office with dozens of realtors would have. That is what I was driving at.
but NJP
that wont hurt the manhatten RE market! the Investment bankers will just buy an extra apartment or two for their mistress/girlfriend while they live in their primary with the family. So there will be no negative impacts in Manhatten. besides what else are they going to do with their record breaking bonuses this christmas
NJ population increase, 2000-2006: +3.7%
US population increase, 2000-2006: +6.4%
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/34000.html
[151] patient,
Parlous use of “habbit” there.
151, Number speak louder than words. If someone tells me that there is a mass exodus out of NJ, show proff, I don’t see it.
It’s like the logic yesterday, 68% houses in Montcalir used to go above asking, now only 40% go above asking, oh the doom and gloom.
#137 lostinny
If the town’s parkway exit # is less then 105 I would not want to live there. Actually most areas between 105 and the Driscoll bridge I would not want to live in too.
But Bi i thought oil was going down???
IEA warns of tightening oil supplies
from FT, July 1 2008 13:16
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/cd683aa0-4764-11dd-93ca-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1
The oil market will remain tight during the next five years as production from non-Opec countries stalls and demand growth remains relatively strong, the western countries’ energy watchdog warned on Tuesday.
But the IEA warned governments not to blame speculators. It said: “Like alchemists looking for a way to turn basic elements into gold, everyone wants a simplistic explanation for high prices,” bluntly adding: “Often it is a case of political expediency to find a scapegoat for higher prices rather than undertake serious analysis or perhaps confront difficult decisions.”
More for NNJ:
“New Jersey’s population drain
Posted by James Hughes and Joseph Seneca October 10, 2007 12:01AM
Categories: Hot Topics, Policy Watch
There is a growing perception that increasing numbers of New Jerseyans are cashing out and moving to lower-cost, more-affordable states, or establishing permanent residence in low-tax states while continuing to maintain a New Jersey home.
Unfortunately, this perception is statistically confirmed by recent Census Bureau and Internal Revenue Service data. The population outflow is very real, and our analyses show it is already exerting a small but increasing negative impact on the New Jersey economy.
Census Bureau data reveal a sharp downturn in New Jersey’s population growth in the 2002-2006 period and a sharp upturn in the number of people leaving the state. In 2002, the state’s population increased by 79,184 persons. The absolute population growth declined steadily in the next four years. It was up only 63,144 in 2003, 56,467 in 2004, and 32,759 in 2005. By 2006, the state’s population growth was just 21,410 persons. A simple extrapolation of this trend indicates New Jersey would experience an absolute population loss in 2008.
Three factors – births minus deaths, international migration and national migration – go into calculating these numbers.
The overall deceleration in the growth rate has been caused by the sharp acceleration in the number of New Jerseyans moving to other states – national migration. In 2002, New Jersey had a net outflow 23,759 people – that is 23,759 more people moved from New Jersey to other states than people from the rest of the country moved into New Jersey. The losses accelerated over the next four years: 33,225 in 2003, 45,045 in 2004, and 56,989 in 2005. By 2006, the new outflow was 72,547 persons. A simple extrapolation of this trend suggests that New Jersey would have a net outflow of over 100,000 persons in 2009.
These losses are starting to have significant economic and fiscal consequences. Internal Revenue Service data on tax filers and their dependents show a substantial loss of income in the state. New Jersey’s 2005 net aggregate adjusted gross income (AGI) was reduced by an estimated $7.9 billion because of the net loss of tax payers between 2000 and 2005. Our estimates of continued out migration indicate that our AGI was reduced by over $10 billion in 2006. In essence, because of the cumulative net outflow of taxpayers, $10 billion was removed from the New Jersey economy in 2006, reducing consumer expenditures, employment, and state and local taxes.
All this translated into a total direct and indirect tax loss (state income and sales taxes) of $539 million in 2005. Based on 2006 population out migration data, the tax losses are estimated to have increased to $680 million in 2006. ”
http://blog.nj.com/njv_hughes_seneca/2007/10/new_jerseys_population_drain.html
NNJ
To highlight, in case you missed it:
“In 2002, New Jersey had a net outflow 23,759 people – that is 23,759 more people moved from New Jersey to other states than people from the rest of the country moved into New Jersey. The losses accelerated over the next four years: 33,225 in 2003, 45,045 in 2004, and 56,989 in 2005. By 2006, the new outflow was 72,547 persons. A simple extrapolation of this trend suggests that New Jersey would have a net outflow of over 100,000 persons in 2009.”
So population is going up, median income is up, yet we are in gloom and doom.
NNJ:
“Population Decline Hitting New Jersey Hard
TRENTON, NJ (AP) — New Jersey’s accelerating population loss is starting to have significant economic and fiscal consequences for the state, according to a Rutgers University report that found the state may be becoming a less attractive locale.
The report found the state lost 231,565 people between 2002 and 2006, including 72,547 people last year. The latter was the fourth highest loss in the nation behind only California, Louisiana and New York.
Meanwhile, North Carolina grew by 807,000 people over the four-year period, displacing New Jersey last year as the nation’s 10th most populous state, the report stated.
When lost income and sales taxes from the people who left New Jersey are considered, the population drain is estimated to have cost the state $680 million in tax revenue last year, the report found.
That estimated loss comes with the state confronting annual budget deficits and struggling to meet billions of dollars in unmet needs. The projected budget deficit could be as large as $3.5 billion next year, according to Gov. Jon S. Corzine.”
http://www.wcbs880.com/pages/1072576.php?
njpatient,
Don’t be a nar, Northern NJ is exclusive and exempt from any downturn. A realtor told me so.
thats a reasonable request NNJ
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2007/10/residents_are_fleeing_new_jers.html
158 Bairen
I don’t know. I kind of really like LBI but I have no idea what its like in the off months.
And Gary, I’m good on the blue-hairs. I haev enough around here, thanks.
165, from your link:
The trend could lead to an actual reduction in the state’s population as early as 2008, the study says
————————————-
But no reduction in population yet.
NNJ,
The LP/SP ratios are more a function of the dominant industry player in that particular market, and not necessarily indicative of the health of the market. This has been discussed ad nauseum here.
Hop in the time machine to March of 2006, more than two years ago:
https://njrereport.com/index.php/2006/03/08/northern-new-jersey-housing-market-weakens-in-first-quarter/#comment-4340
REwatch Says:
March 8th, 2006 at 10:57 pm edit
I agree with Grim, Burgdorf is also known in our town for pricing low to generate interest and bidding wars. I have witnessed homes priced clearly 100K under comps and then hear the realtors site these examples to support “hot” markets. Similarly, many homes are overpriced and sit. Getting a house at 50K under asking when it is not selling is not necessarily a DEAL. The price is what someone is willing to pay at the time. Every buyer must determinne their own “value”.
Realtors can list whatever price they want- only the market ultimately determines the price. List price is fairly arbitrary if you ask me and this over/under asking price stuff is really quite irrelevant.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/18/opinion/nyregionopinions/18NJforsberg.html?partner=rssnyt&emc=rss
NNJ
link to the PDF of the actual report
http://policy.rutgers.edu/news/reports/RRR/RRR_October_2007.pdf
#134 NNJ the 10.9 months of supply can decrease pretty quickly or not. Only time will tell.
The 10.9 months of supply cannot decrease pretty quickly, due to the factors I addressed in the previous post.
And you did not address any of the factors that I mentioned in my original post.
Being totally reasonable and rational, what exactly is there in the enar future that would absorb that supply, and absorb it at such lofty prices, if you take into consideration the factors that I mentioned in my original post.
NNJ
You don’t seem to understand the implication of the relative population change. Where the population of the country as a whole is increasing drastically, and in NJ it is trending from bare increase to decrease, that indicates a LACK OF DEMAND FOR LIVING IN NJ.
another report from the rutgers group that is interesting:
New Rutgers Regional Report Issued, Reversal of Economic Fortune
Bloustein School Dean James W. Hughes and University Professor Joseph J. Seneca issued Rutgers Regional Report #27, Reversal of Economic Fortune:Regional and State Prosperity At Risk
http://policy.rutgers.edu/reports/
From my link:
So, New Jersey’s population is not declining. True, it is growing at a slower rate than in the past. But is that a bad thing for the nation’s most densely populated state?
This suggests that many who leave are retirees, while many who come are in their peak earning years.
NNJ,
If this debate you’re having with the board right now was a football game, you’d be down 47 – 6 with the ball on your own 8 yard line facing a third and 27 with 1:26 left in the game.
#162 NNJ: Median income up in a state with a declining job market. Should tell you something.
It appears that you adhere to the frank school of real estate, that prices will not drop, simply becasue they will not, everything else be damned.
136 bairen,
I’ve been to the ‘rest of the world’ and yes, outside the big prosperous cities, it’s littered with dirtbags. In the poorer countries, you find people in the slums wearing T-shirts with “L.A. Lakers – 2008 NBA Champions” on them. “Jose 3 Pack” , is not much different than his American counterpart.
“But no reduction in population yet.”
These stats are not too meaningful. Illegal alien population (with a lot of babies) has been growing rapidly. For every income-generating middle-class professional couple leaving NJ, 3 taxpayer money sucking illegals arrive (demanding tax-payer funded translation services, and free healthcare/medicaid and various other tax-payer funded benefits). It is a good deal for NJ politicians, but bad deal for the few remaining tax-payers.
NNJ Says:
July 2nd, 2008 at 11:51 am
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/18/opinion/nyregionopinions/18NJforsberg.html?partner=rssnyt&emc=rss
NNJ: This NY Times reporter is an imbecile. A chair bound paper pusher who should actually “think” beyond her thinking…..clown show….
Stick in SI, heck NJ doesn’t even have a single man made structure visible from outerspace. Heck living in SI is great, if you ever visit Mars just look for Fresh Kills and it will feel like you are back at home. Well minus the monte carlo SSs and IROCs
gary,
And with a linebacker breathing down his neck.
179, you mean she does not think like you so the analysis is all wrong.
ADA [181],
LOL! Yes!
NNJ
remind me – you purchased a house in NNJ when?
#160 njp
“$10 billion was removed from the New Jersey economy in 2006, ”
So let’s raise taxes to make up the difference!!!!!
Come on, we can change our name to Due Jersey. That’ll give taxacussets a run for its money.
NNJ,
Just punt and end the misery.
NNJ
consider the following statement from the NY times rebuttal you linked to:
When only state-to-state movement is considered, New Jersey is indeed one of 24 states that are losing population to Southern and Western states. But such movement is only part of the story. When births, deaths and immigration are figured in — data that the Rutgers report did not include — only Louisiana and North Dakota have lost population in this decade.
That means that there is a net decrease in the tax base. newborns and many immigrants pay little or nothing in overall taxes and are certainly not many who leave are retirees, while many who come are in their peak earning years.
In 2005 (the most recent year for which state data are available), more than 2.7 million income tax returns were filed in New Jersey, an increase of 6.2 percent from 2001. State income tax in 2005 was assessed on gross income of $258.1 billion, up 15 percent from 2001.
NNJ
quoting jamil “These stats are not too meaningful. Illegal alien population (with a lot of babies) has been growing rapidly.”
NNJ, in case you’re misinterpreting jamil’s point, it is that the lower-income and underemployed segment of the population accounts for all of the actual population growth in NJ. The population of educated middle class individuals is shrinking rapidly.
If you’re counting on Mexican emigres to prop up NNJ home prices, you’ll be just another foreclosure victim.
lost (45)-
Gefilte burrito…with purple horseradish and tomatillo salsa?
“Come on, we can change our name to Due Jersey.”
I vote Yes on 1.
If NJ is such a dump or about to turn into one, when are the classy people of this board moving to NC?
“Gefilte burrito…with purple horseradish and tomatillo salsa?”
On an unleavened tortilla?
“That’ll give taxacussets a run for its money.”
Actually, in MA, there is a tax revolt (sounds familiar?) and they have great opportunity to get rid of the income tax in November. Last time it was on the ballot, it got about 43% despite massive opposition from local mafia/unions/politbyroo. Politicians are in full panic mode there.
“End the Massachusetts Income Tax citizen initiative is headed for November 2008 ballot!”
http://www.smallgovernmentact.org/
I’d do a chipotle corn cake matzah ball soup.
#192 NNJ
“If NJ is such a dump or about to turn into one, when are the classy people of this board moving to NC?”
As soon as my mullet grows in, I see the light, and my wife loses 8 more teeth.
The following text is taken from page 3 of the NJ report
The net internal migration estimates of the
U.S. Census Bureau are based in significant
part on Internal Revenue Service data that track the residence of federal tax filers. So, it is not surprising that there has been a growing net outflow of federal tax filers and their dependents from New Jersey. The number of exemptions— the sum total of federal tax filers and their dependents—serves as a proxy for net population flows. The annual net outflow of federal tax returns and the associated net change in the total number of exemptions (population) for New Jersey are
given below.
Net Outflow of
Year Federal Tax Returns Exemptions
2000 –12,575 –18,370
2001 –12,027 –18,992
2002 –15,557 –26,429
2003 –20,755 –38,598
2004 –24,952 –49,654
2005 –28,900 –58,633
The net outflow of federal tax returns more than doubled between 2001 and 2005, increasing from 12,027 filers in 2001 to 28,900 filers in 2005.
The annual losses of net adjusted gross income
nearly tripled from 2001 to 2005, increasing from
$689 million to $1.96 billion.
The cumulative income loss during the 2000 to
2005 period was $7.9 billion. That means that the
net outflow of taxpayers from 2000 to 2005 caused
a reduction in the state’s 2005 total adjusted gross
income of $7.9 billion.
Although this loss is relatively small—3.3 percent
of total adjusted gross income in 2005—it is
a permanent loss that will persist (or increase)
each year unless net out-migration is reduced or
eliminated.
Based on the U.S. Census estimates of a further
increase in net out-migration in 2006 (–72,547
persons), the net outflow of taxpayers also increases,
and is likely to have reduced the state’s
adjusted gross income in 2006
John (52)-
“Torrets” = Tourette’s???
torrets = crush valor???
Usage: “At first I thought the homeowner had a nervous tic, but then I realized it was torrets when he began clawing at his crush valor easy chair and cursing repeatedly.”
192 “If NJ is such a dump or about to turn into one, when are the classy people of this board moving to NC?”
nah. it is easier to keep voting for the same political party, continue with the spending patterns and complain only in the internet forums.
“politbyroo”
Word of the Day.
“If NJ is such a dump or about to turn into one, when are the classy people of this board moving to NC?”
PA, dummy, and as I already said upthread, winter of 2009/10.
njp,
Jumpy Australian politician?
180 John
Like I said, someone shoot me.
Clot
You know I did want to eat lunch.
194 jamil
“it got about 43% despite massive opposition from local mafia/unions/politbyroo”
Actually, there was little opposition the last time this measure was on the Mass. ballot because it was assumed it would fail. Although, to be fair, this wasn’t a matter of business vs. unions; Mass. businesses were actually opposed to the measure and are lobbying against it this time as well.
“Jumpy Australian politician?”
That’s it!
Paulson: U.S. home prices to fall
LONDON (Reuters) – U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said on Wednesday that high oil prices, further home price declines and capital markets turmoil will prolong the American economy’s slowdown, while Europe and the UK were also showing signs of slower growth. Paulson, in remarks prepared for delivery to the Chatham House think tank here, said U.S. home foreclosures will remain elevated and “we should not be surprised at continued reports of falling home prices.”
# Clotpoll Says:
July 2nd, 2008 at 12:12 pm
“Usage: “At first I thought the homeowner had a nervous tic, but then I realized it was torrets when he began clawing at his crush valor easy chair and cursing repeatedly.””
ROFLMFAO
Plume (109)-
Yes and no to your question. MLS systems offer basic property info to participants (assessment, purchase price/date, current taxes), but for a lot of the other stuff you need to go to the county clerk’s office. Not surprisingly, you’d be amazed how many RE agents have never been inside a county clerk’s office…
Some NJ counties are beginning to put more property-related items online, though. Especially things like lis pendens filings and sheriff sale results.
NNJ
The middle and upper class in NJ has already gotten the memo and IS moving out according to Federal tax returns.
SOme of us are stuck here due to family. Although I am working on that!
It sounds like the potential job location in ocean county is a bigger negative then i suspected!!!!
NNJ (192)-
“If NJ is such a dump or about to turn into one, when are the classy people of this board moving to NC?”
When you can enter a Formula One car in a NASCAR event.
ket
“The middle and upper class in NJ has already gotten the memo and IS moving out according to Federal tax returns.”
That was, of course, obvious from the stats you already provided, but where NNJ is concerned, better to clarify.
regarding the FT article on oil above:
<i.The IEA added that a number of highly populous developing countries are getting wealthier. “It is only right that they should aspire to the standard of living seen in the OECD – one that includes the same intensity of use of energy. But if the supply of oil is restricted, then the only way in which balance can be achieved is through a gradual price increase until demand is curbed in OECD countries.”
this is from the article. That statement has fairly serious implications for OECD citizens. This means that we should all see a reduced life style that will allow the poorer nations to increase theirs.
Hello resource wars!
njp “Actually, there was little opposition the last time this measure was on the Mass. ballot because it was assumed it would fail. ”
They still had superior resources to oppose that. This is from the tax revolt site:
“2002 : Our first End the Income Tax Initiative in Massachusetts got 885,683 votes – 45.3%. We did it with volunteers, a small budget, and advertising spending of less than $89,000. ”
This is probably the last chance for MA. If this fails, the state is doomed. Latest polls shows dead heat (45-46).
That story about a man shooting his RE agent brings back memories.
I recall a story back in 2003-2004 when a college student shot and killed his teacher and several classmates for receiving a non-passing grade for the second or third time when he was taking the course. The result was that he would not be accepted into a program to finish his education after investing three years of his life. He felt that he was un-fairly treated and decided to kill those that he felt were responsible.
Response at my school? My proffessor got up in front of the class and said “This kid killed his professor over grades. I’m going to be giving you grades that you might not like over the rest of the quarter, please don’t shoot me”.
Just like that professor I think that RE agents should be throwing out heaping doses of reality. It would be good for the american consumer.
ket
Don’t know who it was, but some world class klown on cnbc this morning was predicting that oil would fall as soon as it was clear that the US economy was contracting, which, taken together, was his reason for expecting an expansion of the economy (it was clear that he viewed the price of oil as being solely a function of US demand). And then the energy issue would be solved for the foreseeable future due to the massive quantity of natural gas we’ll be getting from PA during the next 6 years.
It was very difficult to comprehend that someone could have thought that it was a good idea to permit this man to voice his opinions on my teevee.
214 jamil
“2002 : Our first End the Income Tax Initiative in Massachusetts got 885,683 votes – 45.3%. We did it with volunteers, a small budget, and advertising spending of less than $89,000. ”
I wonder where they’re getting those numbers.
“Instead, of the 2.2 million who cast votes that year, 40 percent voted in favor 48 voted against and 12 percent left the question blank”
http://tinyurl.com/6m9wxt
much of the opposition funding is coming from business leaders, however.
Since NJ Median income is going up and the Middle class is moving out, only the very rich and the very poor live in NJ.
NJP,
bread and circus! Call me crazy, but the government and hence media cannot accept or acknowledge the real situation. The disruption to american society would be substantial and the backlash to the politicians who were in power would be severe.
There is so much fail in the CNBC statement that its not even worth pointing it out except to say FAIL
144, Population in NJ is growing and so is median income. What is this mass exodus you are talking about and where are they moving to?
Between 200 and 2006, real income growth in NJ was negative; meaning that after adjusting for inflation, NJ residents saw their incomes shrink in the first half of the decade.
NJ’s anemic population growth can be attributed to immigration and babies. On a net basis, more U.S. citizens leave NJ for other states than move into NJ each year. In 2006, 76k more people left NJ than moved to NJ.
As far as legal immigrant’s moving here with money; about 19k of 49k adults in 2006 had no job (or had under the table jobs).
Immigration statistics:
http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/statistics/ImmProfiles/2006/STBook33.xls
Funny – some of this reads like the economic black box models that conclude that the worst case scenario will never happen. Ket, you’ll enjoy this (you’ve probably already read it).
http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2008/jun/30/cern.particlephysics1
“In my opinion, if an event is so rare that it will probably not happen in the lifetime of the Universe, then we physicists should say to the media that it will not occur, period. We physicists have to be more media savvy, and not split hairs. The final nail in the scaremonger’s coffin is that many of their fears against the LHC are identical to the ones used against the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider in Brookhaven National Laboratory in New York State, a much smaller machine that has been running successfully for years without incident.”
“Call me crazy, but the government and hence media cannot accept or acknowledge the real situation.”
kettle, you ain’t crazy.
218 NNJ
that does appear to be correct, and that is a very bad thing for the state. take a look at what mumbai (bombay) to see what living conditions look like when you only have the rich and the poor, with little inbetween.
NJP
regarding the Mass tax revolt, why would the business leaders want to keep the tax? i am not up to date on that issue.
I, for one, feel that shooting real estate agents is very wrong. For one thing, this could lead to the shooting of lawyers!
223, so are you guys in the super rich or the super poor category? And if you are in neither why are you looking at housing in NJ?
I recommend reviewing the Miller Samuel report.
http://www.millersamuel.com/reports/
Some highlights:
Average sale price in co-op market: -8.1% from previous quarter
Average sale price in condo market: -2.3% from previous quarter
Average sale price in Luxury market:-17% from previous quarter
Average $/sf in Luxury market: -10.7% from previous quarter
Prices in 2nd quarter are usually higher than 1st quarter, so if you adjusted it for seasonality, it would be much uglier.
221 NJP,
there is a real difference though. the worst case propability in financial models suggests that the worst case occurs on the order of HUNDREDS
221 NJP,
there is a real difference though. the worst case propability in financial models suggests that the worst case occurs on the order of HUNDREDS of years. Physisc models suggest probabilities on the order of BILLIONS of years. 7 orders of magnitude difference.
223 ket
“regarding the Mass tax revolt, why would the business leaders want to keep the tax? i am not up to date on that issue.”
As long as you are only having a referendum to determine whether to impose moratorium on a particular TYPE of state tax, but you are not going to impose a moratorium on the state’s power to tax in toto, the state will merely shift the tax burden from where it was prior to the referendum-imposed moratorium (income tax) to somewhere else (e.g., sales tax, business tax, payroll tax, property tax, etc.).
Note that three out of four of those would clearly be bad for corporations.
Brazilification?
227 ket
of course
“So there will be no negative impacts in Manhatten. besides what else are they going to do with their record breaking bonuses this christmas”
Take them with them to jail maybe? I hope so.
“Brazilification?”
Yes, but without the energy independence and soccer skillz.
NNJ = reinvestor
234 gary
“NNJ = reinvestor”
No way. reinvestor has better command of the written word.
NNJ,
no one here is speaking of absolutes except for you. we are not suggesting there will be no middle class, just a very small one. The backbone of a strong social order ( whether state or national or town) is the existence of a strong middle class and the ability to move upwards. The lack of strong middle class severely limits upward mobility and creates social unrest and disorder. not a pleasant environment for anyone. ( except for those in their walled enclaves)
NJP,
when does brigadoon start its wall?
Yes, but without the energy independence and soccer skillz.
Or the swimwear…
NNJ, the only thing that will keep me in New Jersey is the great selection of quality food we have. The thing that’s going to make me leave is the state’s taxes. I’ve been a die hard NJ loyalist all my life. For the first time in my life, I’ve given serious consideration to moving to PA and living at the border. I’ll drive into Jersey to get my food fix and pay lower taxes, lower insurance, lower everything. I’m not the only one. All NJ’s industrial and manufacturing base realizes this as well. Arm & Hammer recently announced that they are spending about 120 million to move their North Brunswick Operation to PA on the border, just to avoid taxes. The rest of our jobs are following suit. All this means is that we’ll have less jobs in NJ, and more people will be forced to leave. It kills me because this is my state, and I love it to death. On the flipside, I won’t be able to afford the corrupt politicians to keep reaching into my pockets. Just for the record, I’m currently a state employee on student stipend at Rutgers. I go into the private sector next year. I’ve never supported any of the perks state employees get, despite the fact that if they took them away, it would hurt my current financial situation.
where do you guys live that you think it’s irresponsible to let an 11 yr old play in the front yard?
Dear Realtors,
See big house. The big house is red. Mommy and Daddy want to sell big red house. You help sell. You sell house, you get money. No one buy big house. You lower price. Still no money. You angry. You too greedy for too long. You eat cup of soup. You lease Ford Escort. You live in basement (come on, you can do it… sound out the word Baaaa sss ment. Very Good, Susan!!).
238, Ben, I have lived in other states and other countries as well. NJ is still a pretty good place.
Lunch meeting, see you later.
#233
Or the super models
So, New Jersey’s population is not declining. True, it is growing at a slower rate than in the past. But is that a bad thing for the nation’s most densely populated state?
No, it’s not declining. But in the context of real estate, the population of probable home owners/buyers is declining. They are being replaced with babies & new immigrants.
Is it bad? The question is too broad. I don’t know. But it is bearish for real estate.
the median income of people who come is higher than that of those who leave. This suggests that many who leave are retirees, while many who come are in their peak earning years
First, I don’t know how one could draw the conclusion that mostly retiree’s leaving? But even if true, so what? Are retiree’s not an important part of the economy? Sure people moving to NJ tend to have good incomes. Why else would you come to NJ unless you had a good job lined up? In many cases, its ex-NYers moving to the suburbs to raise a family; a trend that has been in place for years.
Unless everyone moving to NJ plans to buy more than one home, it’s still bearish for real estate. The demand for homes is still falling.
“where do you guys live that you think it’s irresponsible to let an 11 yr old play in the front yard?”
I let my kids play in the front yard all the time. I tend to keep an eye on them, however.
What I wouldn’t do is let my small child stay in the front yard all night alone.
NNJ
“NJ is still a pretty good place.”
Of course. No one is suggesting that things are better in Somalia, or even Mississippi. We are merely suggesting that home prices in NJ, which are, according to noted RE bull frank, incredibly over-priced, will continue to plummet, and that the fiscal and tax situation in certain other states is less disadvantageous.
“No, it’s not declining.”
Actually, real declines were forecast beginning in 2008 or 2009 according to the Rutgers study. So the jury is still out on that score.
I recommend reviewing the Miller Samuel report.
http://www.millersamuel.com/reports/
Some highlights:
Median sale price in co-op market: 0.7% from previous quarter
Median sale price in co-op market: 8.6% from previous year
Median sale price in condo market: 9.2% from previous quarter
Median sale price in condo market: 22.4% from previous year
Median sale price in Luxury market: -0.8% from previous quarter
Median sale price in Luxury market: 37.5% from previous year
I would love to see serious price declines but so far I don’t see it.
Where’s the gloom and dome?
#157
“It’s like the logic yesterday, 68% houses in Montcalir used to go above asking, now only 40% go above asking, oh the doom and gloom.”
the key question is where are asking prices in relation to 1 yr ago.
“Population Decline Hitting New Jersey Hard”
If so many people have moved out of NJ, how come the traffic is much worse than it was 10 year ago.
This report is bunch of bull and it does not count the 1 million of illegal immigrants that have moved to NJ in the last 10 years.
Hope no one uses those 7-11 ATM’s.
A small gang of ATM thieves hooked up with Russian cyber-criminals had broken into its network of ATMs in 7-Eleven convenience stores, stolen its customers’ account numbers and PIN codes, and made off with millions of dollars in illegitimate withdrawals.
http://www.physorg.com/news134143602.html
http://www.lohud.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/99999999/DATABASE10/70921005/-1/database
Existing home prices up in Putnam, Westchester despite sales declines July 2, 2008
Sales and median prices of existing homes continued to show weakness year-over-year in May across most of New York State.
Sales were down in 41 counties and up in 16 and unchanged in one among 58 counties that have Multiple Listing Services reporting to the state association of Realtors.
Median sales prices also declined, pushing the residential real estate economy more firmly into a market favoring buyers. Prices fell in 36 counties and rose in 22.
In April, prices were up in slightly more than half of the counties.
Sales statewide fell 17.1 percent to 6,590 units, while the median price declined 8.7 percent to $210,000 from $230,000.
The balance between buyers and sellers was less apparent in much of the Lower Hudson Valley. Sales were down across the region, but prices rose in Westchester and Putnam counties.
Putnam’s median rose the most — 17.9 percent to $470,000, despite a sales plunge of 44.4 percent in May from a year earlier. Unit sales dropped to 50 from 90 in May 2007.
Westchester’s median rose 4.1 percent to $702,500, though sales fell 21.8 percent.
In Rockland County, the median sales price of $476,500 was down 5.6 percent as sales declined 20.7 percent.
NNJ
“Lunch meeting, see you later.”
Please say hello to the other RE agents at your Weichert facility.
3b
Where’s the gloom and doom in Manhattan? Condo prices have increased by 9.2% Q/Q and 22.4 Y/Y.
252 frank
“This report is bunch of bull and it does not count the 1 million of illegal immigrants that have moved to NJ in the last 10 years.”
Actual facts are really annoying, aren’t they?!?
So, I take it you’ll be making a mint selling yoru house to an illegal immigrant?
Beyond that, the stats do take into account illegal immigrants.
The census bureau counts bodies.
Frank,
All in due time.
btw, it’s spelled doom, not dome.
256 frank
“Condo prices have increased by 9.2% Q/Q and 22.4 Y/Y.”
Yeah, but only three sold.
a lot of the original NJ people are leaving, statewide sales of capezios,sergio valente jeans and members only jackets are falling.
frank,
do you realize that the additional 1,000,000 illegal aliens are net tax consumers instead of producers. hence the state is poorer and there is are less net people available to buy the $500K Mcmansions
What a headline..
US must stop harassing OPEC: Secretary General el-Badri
frank,
On another note, unless there is a huge drop, QoQ numbers have to decline before YoY numbers do.
As an example, The CS index for Charlotte was still showing YoY increases for 6+ months after the market peak was reached there, even though the month to month numbers were steadily declining.
maybe NNJ and Frank can go on the record as to where they thing RE prices will be next year. Please give percentage up or down and applicable index.
Rich/Grim,
Can I get a purchase history on MLS#’s 2492478, 2515329, 2537265?
All 3 of them in Glen Brook in Bridgewater. Just curious about the price history and whether deals are getting juicy yet. I believe they were 300k in 2005… Still 330-340k, more room on the downside…
TIA for your help gentlemen.
jamil, have you considered moving to a red state, where there is no corruption and the taxes are low?
3412 French
Transfer at $1 in 1995
Was listed in 2005 for $389,900
Current Asking: $333,000
3206 French
Purchased: 5/31/2005
Purchase Price: $355,000
Current Asking: $334,000
201 Strull
Purchased: 10/15/1997
Purchase Price: $135,000
Current Asking: $335,900
NNJ
The NY Times editorial link you provided was written by someone form NJ Policy perspective.
NJ Policy Perspective is a liberal advocacy group. They are basically pro-tax, pro-regulation, pro-public sector & believe in a large role for government in solving social problems.
They were responding to a flurry of articles that blamed NJ’s high cost of living, high taxes & poor business climate as reasons for people leaving. The NYT editorial was their sorry attempt to counter these articles by arguing that everything is just dandy in NJ and that everyone else except them must have misinterpreted the data.
I think most people on this board are with me in agreeing that we love the state of NJ. I love the people, the food, the fast paced life, the diversity. But I think most of us agree, our government is awful and is doing it’s best to chase of out of the state. The blowup in real estate prices has put most of us in a bigger pinch. We don’t want Armageddon in NJ, we want affordable cost of living.
241
PA isnt exactly a bargain and hasnt been for a few years now compared to NJ. Unless you live another 20-30 minute drive further into PA.
With the gas prices I’m not sure you will save anything with a live in PA and work in NJ lifestyle.
jamil, I every state has it’s government problems. NJ’s are on a totally different mountain than Pennsylvania’s. I don’t picture Penn’s problems getting worse than NJ in the next 5-10 years. If NJ could get some real government reform going, I’d love it. Unfortunately, everything they do seems to be digging the hole deeper.
I swear this is the last on this.
NJP, I agree I don’t think her ability to pay for the search should determine if they look for the kid, but I liken it to other risk takers, such as mountain climbers, etal. They should have to pay a fine. They are using resources, and there is always a possiblity of another event needing those resources at the same time.
Chifi, As a child in the 60’s I did the same things as you, but would you let Hunter do those things now?
Skep, the kid was’nt playing in the front yard – he was camping there – you know sleeping at night in the front yard. He was there at 9pm missing at 11pm.
Im done. Back to Real estate.
KL
Mitchell,
I’ll be riding a motorcycle. I’m not worried about gas prices. I’m worried about property taxes.
Jamil,
what is wrong with gay marriage? why should the government have any say in your personal relationships? how is that any different then saying people of different eye colors cannot marry or people with different hair colors cannot marry?
Re ben Says:
July 2nd, 2008 at 1:42 pm
I think most people on this board are with me in agreeing that we love the state of NJ. I love the people, the food, the fast paced life, the diversity.
Can I have a puff of whatever it is you are smoking?
nj: “jamil, have you considered moving to a red state, where there is no corruption and the taxes are low?”
Yes..Though leaving the country is probably safer long-term solution once the promised nationalizations, government controlled house temperatures and tax hikes arrive.
Anyway, at least I would vote against the tax-hiking scumbags (rather than vote for them and complain in net forums).
275: I just don’t think judicial activists should legislate from the bench. They should run for the office, instead.
Amen, whether you sleep face up or face down it is none of my business.
kettle1 Says:
July 2nd, 2008 at 1:46 pm
Jamil,
what is wrong with gay marriage? why should the government have any say in your personal relationships? how is that any different then saying people of different eye colors cannot marry or people with different hair colors cannot marry?
275 kettle
Small government for me but not for thee, of course.
[197] Jamil,
Tax revolts and tax issues, large or small, are very much a part of the bay state landscape (remember, they have been fighting taxes since the 1700’s there). Before the current initiative, there was a fairly strong effort to roll back an income tax surcharge, that took the income tax rate from 5% to something like 5.75%. This was a few years ago.
Local ballot initiatives are constant, because any property tax hikes over a certain percentage must be voter approved. This is a legacy of Prop. 2 1/2, which was an earthshaking tax revolt.
There was an initiative to repeal tolls on the Mass. Pike, which were supposed to stop when the bonds were paid, but never did.
Much of this can be attributed to the relative ease of getting ballot initiatives in Mass. Once on the ballot, it is hard to get an initiative stricken, or to ignore it. Another factor is the relative lack of “sheeple” there. I was dumbstruck when I moved out of New England how apathetic folks were in MD (and in NJ). PA wasn’t much better. I recall that Dukakis lost an election because of a mishandled snowstorm. Folks in N.E. are just quicker with the voting handle.
In other tax news:
Yesterday, Patrick signed a bill hiking the state cigarette tax (already high) by $1 per pack. Also, I am not sure if it was in the same bill, but Patrick also wants to REDUCE the corporate income tax to 8% from 9.something. (IMO, something had to give. Mass. is a small state that has been losing HNW taxpayers and business to So. NH for decades now. In fact, as of a couple of years ago, most NH residents are originally from Mass. Before the tech boom, parts of Mass were dubbed New Appalachia, and tech reversed a slide in the state’s fortunes. If a mature tech industry starts to pull out, the state is doomed to become another rust belt state.)
278 jamil
“I just don’t think judicial activists should legislate from the bench. They should run for the office, instead.”
sorry, but that’s a specious argument. The court interprets the constitution. That’s its role. If you don’t like it, then you must have hated the Supreme Court’s recent ruling that gun ownership is protected by the constitution.
Moreover, if you’re really in favor of small government, you should appreciate a constitution that holds government power in check, and a court that upholds that constitution.
What you appear to be advocating, on the other hand, is a legislature that can override the consitution and the court with impunity.
That is hardly a small government.
Rhyming RE
per FBI stats crimes against children are close to or at there lowest in US history. SO hunter is safer then you were while camping in the front yard
John, I’m not smoking anything, I drink a lot of coffee though. I prefer NJ lifestyle. Also, we have too many good pizza places for me to move far away.
Nom
“Much of this can be attributed to the relative ease of getting ballot initiatives in Mass. ”
and, of course, where it’s easiest is in CA, where there have been so many idiotic (and expensive) initiatives passed that the ability to move quickly to fix any given problem is nearly lost. The initiative system in CA has been an unqualified disaster.
Question for the people: Would you like more entitlements?
People: YES!!!!
Question for the people: Would you like lower taxes?
People: YES!!!
Try that a few times in a row and you’re headed for a disaster.
#264,
Median price forecast 1 year out of -5%
277 jamil
“Yes..Though leaving the country is probably safer long-term solution ”
Short of leaving the country (which some might regard as not being the most patriotic of solutions), which corruption free, low-tax red state would you move to?
286 frank
“Median price forecast 1 year out of -5%”
Where? Based on what metric (Case/Shiller, NAR, OFHEO)?
although, pending your answer, I’d note that if -5% is the most optimistic forecast we’ve got, then we’re finally nearing capitulation.
#261,
Unions not illegal aliens make the state poorer and that’s how they can afford to buy the $500K Mcmansions. They are fleecing the state.
#288,
Median price from NAR.
Listening to all you bears out here, I bought 100 XLF calls, I think I will make some money.
Clot,
Thanks for your response. Seems realtors are much like bankers in that they rely on the simple, available information and make it their universe. Realtors rely on MLS data, bankers look to FICO and desktop u/w. Whatever the computer spits out is reality.
Somehow three percent seems a tad excessive when all a buyer’s agent is doing is letting you into houses with their access gizmo and walking over your offer. Are there any agents who will handle this service for much less and rebate me most of the commission?
[rant off]
282 njp: Actually, Kennedy’s opinion in recent SC ruling (Child Rape) was shockingly shoddy and based on incorrect facts. Even ultra far-left realized that (See NYT). Had Kerry won in 2004, 2nd amendment would have been cancelled, just like that. It is pretty distrubing.
Anyway, SC should not invent new rights and force these (like some state courts in NY and NJ are making executive decisions, ie decising how much money should be spent on certain schools).
Small government means that SC should not try to micro-manage funding or change the culture (and laws) based on their political views.
Yous eem to be advocating imperial SC which can do whatever it wants since to the left everything is “interpreting” the constitution.
#287 njp
I like the Chalotesville, Virginia area. If I had to pick mcmansion land I would go for Charlotte, but only in an established area. If they are still building, or just finished a few years ago, I’ll pass.
I would prefer Portland, OR though.
NJP
I know i am preaching to choir here, but the issue is not ballot initiatives. The core issue is voter education and awareness.
Somehow three percent seems a tad excessive when all a buyer’s agent is doing is letting you into houses with their access gizmo and walking over your offer. Are there any agents who will handle this service for much less and rebate me most of the commission?
Sorry, commission rebates aren’t permitted in NJ. Licensure law states that you must be a license holder to receive commission on a sale.
Buyers agents can reduce their commission in order to ‘sweeten’ an offer. Net result is the same.
#287: “Short of leaving the country (which some might regard as not being the most patriotic of solutions),”
Well, I’m still waiting for my US citizenship (not sure if I take it) so patriotism is not a problem in my case, wrt leaving the country..
[285] patient,
I recall the debate being somewhat more involved and high-minded than that.
The fact that some antitax initiatives fail, and some property tax overrides pass, seems proof that there is an understanding by voters that actions have consequences, or that they have to pay for what they want. The fact that the votes are close serves as a check on politicians, and prevents true one-party rule (in fact, despite a democratic lock on the legislature, the last few governors have been republicans and the largest political designation in the state is independent).
I think the fact that the state is politically balanced (despite being perceived as liberal), more homogeneous, and less economically divided than most also helps. There is more consensus and differences tend to be at the margins. Also, folks tend to be better educated (%s of grads and post grads are higher there) and the media outlets tend to delve very deeply into governance issues. As such, you have a reasonably well-informed electorate that expects honesty and responsiveness, and has been fairly proactive when it comes to seeking it. The only state I have lived in outside of N.E. with a comparable mindset is Virginia.
[297] grim,
I figured. Worth a try though.
Closter FUTURE Comp Killer!
239 HIGH ST
SOLD: $425,000 10/19/2006
Current MLS#: 2827127
OLP: $625,000 2/28/2007
LLP: $425,000 7/1/2008
If anyone is feeling optimistic about oil may i suggest some reading….
Midterm Oil Market Report
http://www.iea.org/textbase/speech/2008/eagles_mtomr2008.pdf
page 23 is particularly interesting
Bergenfield FUTURE Comp Killer!
111 N PROSPECT AVE
SOLD: $379,000 7/28/2005
Current MLS#: 2827103
OLP: $450,000 6/4/2007
LLP: $379,000 7/1/2008
patient,
I’m so far behind on following the blog today but your posts made my day. I used to love that movie when I was a kid. Granted it was made before I was born but my dad used to watch it all the time. Nothing like some good ‘ole fashion father son bonding………
page 19 of the oil PDF may illuminate why gas/oil prices are up and will continue upward
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2008/01/new_jerseys_economic_growth_wi.html
“This differential is due to the relatively higher cost of living and doing business in New Jersey, as well as our lower rate of population growth, expected to average 0.6 percent,” Mantell said.
——————————————-
Rutgers can’t make up their mind about population change in NJ?
NNJ,
Reading comprehension…. try it.
http://tinyurl.com/5wm4el
from your linked article
Nancy Mantell, director of the Rutgers Economic Advisory Service, is forecasting a 2.2 percent rate of annual state output growth between 2006 and 2017
that article has nothing to do with population trends. it is discussing economic output
do we really have 1 million illegals in
NJ? does that include muslims,,, which seem to be growing quickly?
and does it really effect our hospitals?
#308,
mark, you are thinking too much.
frank (292)-
That was my trigger to load up on SKF. Nice little entry point today.
Thanks.
Disclaimer: do what Frank does, and you could end up like bi (who may now have his own personal margin clerk).
#185 NNJ: Where is the analysis?
Elmwood Park Comp Killer!
22 3RD ST
SOLD: $530,000 10/4/2006
MLS#: 2747401
OLP: $549,900 12/1/2007
SOLD: $455,000 6/30/2008
294 jamil
you didn’t address my questions, so I’ll put it more simply:
How do you distinguish between the Supremes finding a consitutionally protected right to carry a gun and a constitutionally protected right to marry?
How is one of those things indicative of an imperial court and other is not?
“This differential is due to the relatively higher cost of living and doing business in New Jersey, as well as our lower rate of population growth, expected to average 0.6 percent,” Mantell said.
—————————————
I read 0.6 to be population growth. If you think this is difference between national gdp of 2.5 and nj gdp of 2.2 then more power to you.
Ridgefield Park Comp Killer!
31 EDISON ST
SOLD: $350,000 8/7/2005
MLS#: 2744599
OLP: $399,000 11/3/2007
SOLD: $300,000 7/2/2008
#210 John:Paulson: U.S. home prices to fall.
Except in NNJ.
#274 Ben
Dangerous riding in NJ nobody sees you. Plus the days of rain/snow/ice.
Ok in the warmer months but I would hate the commute in the colder months.
Bergenfield FUTURE Comp Killer!
40 ARLINGTON AVE
SOLD: $378,000 10/31/2006
MLS#: 2800867
OLP: $425,000 1/7/2008
LLP: $350,000 7/1/2008
#228 NNJ: Why do you insist on trying to justify your recent real estate purchase? If you are happy, why do you care?
299 nom
you’re speaking of Mass, and I agree. I was suggesting that California was a disaster.
From CNBC,
“The surge in oil prices isn’t just limiting how much people drive, it’s making them worry about next winter’s heating bill, and triggering a boom in the oldest source of fuel around: firewood.
“People are doubling their orders, trying to stock up on wood,” said Vito Scarvaglione, owner of Vito’s Tree Service in suburban Fort Lee, N.J. “It’s going to be a crazy year — I’m trying to get as much wood done as possible.”
Scarvaglione expects the price for a cord of wood (128 cubic feet) to approach $300 this winter, up from about $220 now”
Kettle, this is why I was sighting for standing timber.
#235 Ben: What bonus,This year? Kiss the big bonus money good bye for the next few years.
Kettle1, Why don’t you learn English.
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qa5311/is_200803/ai_n25139447
“This difference is due to the relatively higher cost of living and doing business in New Jersey, as well as our lower rate of population growth, expected to average 0.6 percent,” she clarified. The state’s population will exceed 9 million residents in the year 2012.
299 nom
“The only state I have lived in outside of N.E. with a comparable mindset is Virginia.”
Perhaps the most beautiful state in the Union.
Driving down route 81 from Winchester to Chattanooga never gets old for me.
Hillsdale FUTURE Comp Killer!
330 KINDERKAMACK RD
SOLD: $485,000 12/9/2005
Current MLS#: 2817884
OLP: $579,000 3/13/2007
LLP: $449,000 7/1/2008
Nom Deplume,
I’m not a RE agent but it is illegal by federal standards to fix commissions. I ran into some RE agents from NY/NJ who were adamant about not being able to reduce thier commissions from 3%.
Here is an example of a RE agent in California that is offering a buyer concession.
http://www.ocrealestateadvisors.com/cash+back+at+closing.htm
Your not asking to recieve a commission on the sale. Your asking the buyer agent to pay you for the right to represent you. I have a sister that bought in MD and had the buyer agent give 2.5% in concession on the sale of the home. Seems extreme but they found the home and did the leg work. Then went looking for a buyer agent to close the deal.
A RE agent that will be guaranteed a sale and not have to do anything more then push paperwork for a few days jumped at the chance to represent him.
With that said, I do not know NJ law but do know they cannot price-fix. You also cannot renegotiate between the Seller and his agent so that even if you did get the buyer agent to reduce his commission that doesn’t directly translate into anything except more money for the Selling agent. The buyer agent has to sign an agreement to pay you, usually structured around the commission given from selling agent to buyer agent.
House prices jumped 187% or so during the bubble in Maryland equating to RE agents making almost three times the amount of money. If you were making 40,000$ a year before the run up then for equivalent work you were making 114,800$ at the peak.
Unfortunately, for my sister, she bought during 2005 and has been royally punished by the market.
324 jamil
“for one thing, the right to carry a gun has always been here (it actually is written there), but gay marriage is a totally new invention.”
So then you don’t see a difference in kind, you just don’t see have the same interpretation of the Constitution.
There are many people (with whom you and I both disagree) who believe that there is no right for an individual to carry a gun in the second amendment. There are many people (with whom you agree and I disagree) who believe that there is no right for an individual to get married under the constitution). However, either one is very simply an interpretation of the Constitution, and most importantly in either case is a limitation on government power.
For the record, in both cases, I read the constitution as limiting government power. In at least one, you do not.
Let’s remember this for any future discussions of “big government,” because apparently you’re in favor.
NJP,
I dont disagree with your larger point but the SC ruling wasnt about “carrying” a gun; it only struck down an absolute prohibition on keeping guns in your home for self-defense. I dont know why gun nuts are so happy about it. The vast vast majority of gun laws wont be affected.
314 NNJ
Mea Culpa, I jumped the gun.
link to the report you reference
http://policy.rutgers.edu/cupr/recon/pdf/forjan07.pdf
Population growth.
2004 0.5%
2005 0.4%
2006 0.5%
2007 0.7%
2008-2017 0.7%
This growth is in births and lower income individuals. The problem is that you have less money amongst more people. in the Soviet state of NJ that is a bad thing, as where are all the tax dollars going to come from. The data shows that the middle and upperclass are leaving the state at alarming numbers.
Population growth in this case is a bad thing as the lower income individuals and the newborns consume state resources without paying any significant taxes.
What is your point about population growth of .7%? that .7% is not replacing the the approximately 8 billion in annual income that has PERMANENTLY left the state.
There are also methodology differences. The economic forecast used a simple average over the entire date span and projected that forward, while the report i linked showed the increasing rate of people leaving each year and stated that if the rate continued then there would be negative growth.
#256 frank: It is knocking on the front door in Manhattan. Are you still hoping all the Euro people will buy the Manhattan condo’s.
Because the Wall St crowd will not buying.
But hey real estate is still going to go up, because you an NNJ say so.
jamil,
Can we petition not to give you US citizenship?
Rutgers released a study in oct 07 on exodus out of NJ. Then another study in January 08 indicated growth of population growth. I guess the NYTimes article was correct after all.
NYC Area population is predicted to grow by 1 million in the next decade. I wonder where they will all live?
Nom 321,
get a wood stove that can burn both pellets and cord wood. you can buy the pellets by the pallet and keep them in a shed. that is more efficient then harvesting your own timber. It is also a good way to build a reserve. Consider that if heating really gets that bad, how many people will be competing for timber. The northeast was once primarily old growth forests. where did they all go?
334 NNJ
once again FAIL!
I have not and the report does not claim that the state has seen negative population growth (yet) but that the rate of people leaving is increasing and that those people are taking significant amounts of money with them ($10 billion+)
the economic report does not address any of the issues in the report i referenced.
Dump your ARM now — if you can
Fed hint of rate hikes puts homeowners in refinancing bind
BOSTON (MarketWatch) — While the media and the market scrutinized every word of the Federal Reserve Board’s message last week, it seemed to overlook the most important signal, which was there loud and clear for anyone reading between the lines. It went like this: “Refinance your adjustable-rate mortgage now, if you can.”
That’s the logical interpretation of the Fed’s current position; if the days of a falling interest-rate environment are over and the only logical direction over the next 12 to 18 months is up, then anyone looking at a mortgage reset is in line to take a beating. Worse yet, with the real estate bubble still deflating, home prices are shrinking, which will make it tougher for many homeowners to actually get the job done.
I don’t know what this means….
BREAKING NEWS:
Lehman employees to get midyear bonuses equal to about 20% of compensation. Full story to follow shortly
333 jamil
It is about big government. You prefer greater government power. I don’t.
I heard a news article on National Public Radio (NPR) that said that pellets were derived from sawdust waste from logging in the NW.
Since there has been a slowdown in new construction they have stopped harvesting as much lumber. Just watch that logging show on cable, even they are experiencing major layoffs due to the housing slump.
Overall the sawdust used to make the Pellets is so scarce that manufacturers have taken to sawing whole trees into sawdust in order to keep up with demand. Expect pellet prices to rise in lock step with the price of corded wood.
I say just put on a few extra layers and keep the house a bit colder this winter.
#288 njpatient: frankenomics.
http://nl.newsbank.com/nl-search/we/Archives?p_product=PI&s_site=philly&p_multi=PI&p_theme=realcities&p_action=search&p_maxdocs=200&p_topdoc=1&p_text_direct-0=0EB32CD8C0279BD6&p_field_direct-0=document_id&p_perpage=10&p_sort=YMD_date:D&s_trackval=GooglePM
Suburbia has grown up. And, like any entity that has reached middle age, New Jersey’s suburban housing market is starting to sag. Big time. The era of new Levittowns is over. Still reeling from a devastating recession at the start of the decade, New Jersey builders now face more unpleasant news. A new study by two Rutgers University professors to be released today predicts that things won’t get any better for the rest of the decade. Coauthors James W. Hughes
Published on January 24, 1996, Page A01, Philadelphia Inquirer, The (PA)
——————————————-
Maybe I will find the actual article on Rutgers website.
How The Bubble Bursts
Mr Practical Jul 02, 2008 11:00 am
Understanding inflation and deflation.
Now that we’re getting a taste of what deflation is, it’s easier to talk about. Before, I tried to describe what to expect and how to deal with it, but in a way that was difficult for the average person to understand – especially when the government, the Fed, and Wall Street continue to misrepresent it.
Now that we’ve seen the beginning stages of deflation, it’s becoming clearer what’s going on and what’s important: to conserve capital. To save.
So let’s review what inflation and deflation really are.
The traditional definition of inflation (rising prices) and deflation (falling prices) don’t make sense in today’s world. That’s why people are confused. Ironically, the Fed wants you to be this confused, because it’s actually they who create inflation – which plants the seeds for eventual deflation.
Inflation’s just the expansion of the money supply, almost always through the expansion of debt. This is what the Fed does: They create debt out of thin air and pass that debt on to the banking system by extending credit; banks then extend it to consumers.
From 1993 to 2006 the Fed created massive inflation by creating massive debt, keeping real interest rates negative and supplying plenty of credit to keep them there. This was particularly true from 2001 to 2006; in 2006 alone the Fed expanded the money supply by creating $4 trillion in new debt.
Click to enlarge
People who had no business borrowing took money from people who had no business lending. This drove the prices of the cars and house they bought with that money up, while the debt drove the value of the currency down. This doubles the pressure on the prices of things we get from other countries – like oil.
So it isn’t hard to convince people that inflation means rising prices, because rising prices almost always occur when the money supply’s inflated with debt.
In 2007, we reached a point where there was just too much debt; no one could take on any more. This is where the Fed’s inflation machine breaks down: If no one can borrow or lend on the credit they offer the banking system, the money supply stops expanding. In fact, as people try to pay off all that debt (retire it) or default on it (destroy it), the money supply, bloated with debt, begins to shrink. Hence deflation.
What does the Fed do then? Why, they buy that debt themselves, to try to keep the money supply from deflating. This leads to those TAF (term auction facility) auctions you’ve heard about, where the Fed exchanges new capital (t-bills) for bad debts with banks.
Despite these efforts, the money supply has probably deflated by the amount of write-offs — by now, approximately $400 billion — that banks have incurred. Strict measures of money supply, like M3, haven’t fallen – but that doesn’t include the most important broad sources of new money, like derivatives and securitized loans. As the money supply deflates, people borrow less and spending goes down. The deflation thus feeds on itself, because lower spending means lower income and debt becomes even harder to support. Prices in stocks begin to fall as the money supply dwindles.
Central banks are powerless to stop the money supply from deflating unless they take on the debt themselves. If not, it will be systematically destroyed by defaulting, and the money supply will shrink even more.
As central banks fight this by taking on debt (as in TAFs and the Bear Stearns bailout), taxpayers will be called upon to make up the losses. Ironically, the Fed’s attempts to keep the money supply inflated are much worse for the average person, who suffers from a declining dollar and higher taxes in the long run.
Why doesn’t this happen all the time, you ask? It does – it just usually happens in smaller increments. What’s happening now is different only in terms of magnitude: The money supply has been so debt-inflated for so long that the reversal is very significant. Over the years, it just adds up: Few realize just how much debt’s still out there.
When a bank takes a write-off, debt gets smaller – but we still have a long way to go. How long? Well, the level of debt’s currently four to five times greater than is normal for our economy; the natural level of income and savings aren’t enough to support the debt. Debt will get destroyed — and the money supply will deflate — until debt and actual savings are more balanced.
If you understand inflation and deflation in this way, our current crisis makes more sense. Now we’re seeing deflation (a shrinking money supply and lost liquidity), which is causing havoc in markets.
We’re still seeing prices rise on certain scarce commodities as various competing forces work their way through the system; but that’s to be expected, because those rising prices are caused by more debt, which will eventually make the debt untenable as income goes down.
We’re seeing formerly powerful financial institutions destroyed by even these first stages of deflation. That’s because their only power came from franchise – from being able to take out high-risk spreads. So they actually had very little capital to support vast amounts of debt when things began to sour.
High risk has been rewarded in the past by government (easy monetary policy), legislation (the repeal of Glass-Steagall, now clearly a mistake), and the markets (the Wall Street marketing machine). Those rewards fall away quickly when you see that you have built your house built on sand.
For decades, but especially over the last seven years, central banks have “solved” any and all market dips, slowing economies, and financial problems by creating debt. If the stock market declines, just make it easy to borrow, so people can buy stocks. If the economy slows, just make it easy to borrow, so people can consume more. This methodology may work on occasion, but doing it systematically leads to crisis.
Central banks can’t fix this problem: They can only create more banking debt or transfer its risks onto taxpayers via TAF auctions or nationalization – which will only stabilize the banking system long enough for banks to dilute themselves massively by suckering investors into buying stock. More debt isn’t the solution.
So stay the course. Stay out of the way. Bottom feeders keep coming up empty. There will be rallies in stocks. Some will be quite vicious, but that doesn’t mean we’re in a bull market. The GDP’s going to go way down, but will eventually come back when debt is wiped out to a point where those with savings want to lend or invest again.
We have a long way to go, though – and risk is high.
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/inflation-deflation-Fed-crisis-Credit-debt/index/a/17847
#291 frank:Median price from NAR.
You are joking, right? The same NAR that has been totally discredited, who denied the existence of a bubble in the first place.
Go back to sleep kid.
#348,
Fine, pick any other misguided price measure and take 5% off that.
3b,
“Go back to sleep kid.”
I maybe asleep but you need to wake up to the fact that prices have not dropped much in NJ so far.
#326 Rich: $449K on KKR, still too much.
frank (332)-
Can we petition to have you stripped of citizenship and deported?
[327] Nicholas,
Thanks. That was a lot more analysis than I would have expected for something that isn’t going to happen in any event. My post was more of a rant.
[352] Clot,
Oh, would that we could enforce such petitions. I have a very long list!!!
“prices have not dropped much in NJ so far”
frank, is that consistent with your contention that it is a “hot market”?
#350 frank: They have dropped, and they will continue to drop. Again I ask you give me one cohernet arguement otherwise.
“Can we petition to have you stripped of citizenship and deported?”
How do you know that I am not illegal in this country?
Catch me if you can.
#356,
Again, I agree that they have dropped, and they will continue to drop,
but the magnitude of decline is the big difference here.
Nick,
i was making the suggestion that if you really want to stock up now, by 8 tons now, and then you have 4 or 5 winters worth of wood pellets
e: #340 Lehman, another diversion tactic for the sheep they probably have allot of employees who want to leave since their previous years stock grants and older stock options are way underwater right now, wating for vesting can be years depending on the plan. This early bonus of shares will cost them little and buy them some goodwill with empoyees who may want to leave, I wonder what the vesting will be? Only a few weeks ago Lehman told the market that it didn’t need to take write-downs and didn’t need to raise equity and then ONE week after this announcement it fired its CFO and raised capital it said it didn’t need, in order to pay for write-downs it said it didn’t have.
More pain to come.
[353] Nom Deplume,
It really was no problem. I had already done a lot of the analysis already when discussing commissions with some 6’ers a while back.
I pretty much reiterated what I had said on another post and copied the links provided.
#334 NNJ(realtor): NYC Area population is predicted to grow by 1 million in the next decade. I wonder where they will all live?
And so your arguement is that to live here they will be forced to pay these prices, even if the salries they earn cannto support the prices. We hav been there and odne that, it was facilitated by the use of cheap money/ funny mtgs and all the rest.
That era is over.
I have heard this arguement time and time again, from realtors, and so it is confirmed in my mind that you are a realtor. Case closed.
You need to uodate your salient sales points for why it is always a good time to buy a home.
Frank,
Anyone can look at a chart and see prices have dropped at different levels all over Jersey. Where I live prices are down only a few percentage points. Discussing the past is easy, predicting the future is not. What people here do is to try and map out what they expect to see 6-18 months from now in a reasonable fashion.
NJ has a “spend, spend, spend” state government and we are facing a time where corporate and personal spending is tanking. Incomes are not rising to even match inflation and credit is severely constricted. NJ home prices have skyrocketed with easy leverage over the past 6+ years. In what world would this not spell disaster for RE prices?
People move for many reasons and a good percentage of them have little to no control over when they must move. Who will buy their homes and at what price given the current economic (and speedily worsening) environment?
Mean reversion theory, ever hear of it? A good chunk of financial professionals have made billions and billions on this theory as it applies to stocks and bonds. Watch it play out over the next 2-5 years in the RE market.
#349 frank: Typical.
#359 frank: And again I ask what on the horizon would preclude them from not having a big decline. Everything is int eh toliet, and yet real estate will remain relatively unscathed?
#361 sean: Leave? Where are they going to go?
Kettle1,
You think that fuel prices will remain high for 4 or 5 winters?
We are seeing the same rise in wood/pellet prices in MD as we are seeing in fuel costs. A cord of wood that would have gone for 125$ five years ago is now going for 225$. I haven’t checked current prices but I wouldn’t expect them to be too far off that mark and wouldn’t be surprised if they are 300$.
I heard a report on NPR on the Iraqi Oil supply and they seem to think that with the new western bids they can bring 500,000 barrels of oil online in the next 6-8 months and 1 million barrels every year after that for the next five years. The infrastructure already exists to pipe and export the oil, The drilling is what is missing/lacking.
Given that political stability is slowly returning to that country and a new US administration that will probably begin drawing down troops regardless of who is elected it seems likely that we could see significant output from that country.
In addition, if interest rates go up that will strenthen the dollar and oil will become cheaper. Thus we will see a drop in cost for wood/pellets too.
I’m not sure I would invest in 5 years worth of Pellets right now given that energy prices are at record highs.
lehman now vests over three years 1/3 1/3 1/3 but new plan is at current market price. Old plan had longer vesting but started at below market market price in time stock was rising.
All those high income families that bought in NJ during 2005-2007 are equity locked into thier homes.
They are staying put.
Or getting forclosed on…
When is this wave of foreclosure coming, I can’t find any decent properties where cash flow makes sense compared to the price.
Frank: I have property to sell to you in Blue Ribbon School district train town of central NJ at 2005 prices. Are you game? My email is skgala at gmail. Heck I might give you few % drop in prices from 2005.
re: #359 3B – back office personnel – They have more portable skills than the average trader or banker and can move around more easily.
Their bonuses include more stock grants or options and less cash with a vesting period. LEH cannot function without the back office personnel, if they are leaving in droves since there grants and options are way under water then LEH is doing this to keep them, as well as divert the sheep since there will be no good news of any sort coming out of LEH for a long time.
SG,
I am looking for a Hoboken property at 2005 prices. Got any?
#365 sean; Understood, but even back office jobs, not many of those around in this environment either. Even if the skills can be transfered out of the financial sector.
“Beyond the Mortgage Meltdown,”
http://demos.org/pubs/housingpaper_6_24_08.pdf
SAS
America’s Young Adults Face Serious Economic Challenges, According to New Data Report by Demos and Opinion Poll Analysis by the Center for American Progress. (5/6/2008)
http://demos.org/pubs/esya_5_7_08.pdf
SAS
#366 frank They are on their way, but wait, because 2002/03 prices are right behind 05.
I am looking for a Hoboken property at 2005 prices. Got any?
frank: Seems like you are lousy negotiator, if you cant get at 2005 prices today. I can help if you need professional negotiation help. Anything below 2005 should be my commission.
“City Housing Slump May Hit In 2009
New Reports signal first price declines in a decade”
http://tinyurl.com/4eca6k
SAS
jamil Says:
July 2nd, 2008 at 1:48 pm
275: I just don’t think judicial activists should legislate from the bench. They should run for the office, instead.
You must mean judicial activists like Scalia
Mansion ‘mistake’ piles the pressure on Barack Obama
http://tinyurl.com/39t78f
SAS
My friend needs a list of Florida’s foreclosures and short sales in the Miami, Fort Lauderdale & Naples towns. Do you know where is the best place to get these?
Is their a free web site or link?
“They are on their way, but wait, because 2002/03 prices are right behind 05.”
You have been saying that for a while, but so far I don’t see it.
Also in Hoboken, prices don’t matter, it’s the rent equivalent, that matters. If you can rent a place for more than it costs to own it then it’s an easy decision.
#374,
realtor.com
Hi. Been lurking on this site for about 6 months. Love it, has become an addiction. Since the subject of Ocean County came up, I want to buy in Toms River, Brick, Point pleasant area, but most think I should buy in the Wall area. Ocean County is about 30% less for what I see. Also, anybody with Ocean County info can tell me what is going on with 1410 Vincenzo Drive. TIA
“Obama flip-flops on telecom immunity”
http://tinyurl.com/3fbc6j
SAS
#378 FB
I’ve been looking down that way too. Brick, Point, Point Beach, and Brielle. Brielle is by far the nicest and most expensive. Beach has a great school system, but not much available in my $ range. Not much difference between the Boro and Brick. Check this link to the Yahoo page for Brick. 205 homes in some stage of foreclosure! I know few of these actually happen, but when I put in my current town, Caldwell, 4 come up. I’m resigned to renting this year and seeing where the chips fall.
http://realestate.yahoo.com/New_Jersey/Brick;_ylc=X3oDMTE5MGRqZDdoBF9TAzI3MTYxNDkEc2VjA2ZwLXRyb3VnaARzbGsDc3Bpcml0LWZpeGVk
Nom,
I am used to posters questioning whether the seller’s agent is worth the money they get, now buyers agents. et tu brutus? Would it make a difference to you if he had used his little box to open 20 doors for you 30 doors or maybe 50? will there be any more negotiations? will you need to get in again for inspection? appraisal, walk-thru. Will you have any questions on the process, I assure you your attorney won’t be available for your calls. There are so many snags from offer to close, I hope your’s goes smooth but if not I hope you have a good buyer’s agent.
KL
Housing bottomed in Dec 07.
(340) Sean – Thank you for the posting.
I have a book ordered “Trillion Dollar Meltdown” – Charles Morris. Have you read it? Evidently he calls for an updated version of Glass- Steagal. Would raising the rates (Feds) help now? I wish they would have last week – next meeting 8/5.
#381,
NNJ, housing where? China, US, Europe?
Are you a Real Estate Agent, a Congressman, or do you work for the Fed Reserve?
Can someone tell me status on MLS 2506909..
I lost track of this..
Thanx
Housing bottomed in Dec 07
Sure about that?
https://njrereport.com/index.php/2008/06/24/new-jersey-home-price-tracker-june-2008/
re: (382) Cindy if the Fed can perform an emergency rate cut like they did out of the blue this year and they can perform an emergency rate hike no need to wait, FYI the European Central Bank meets tomorrow and they are expected to continue to fight inflation we could see a quarter point raise from them.
I have not read that book but the reviews seem ok, I would recommend reading Peter Shiff’s “Crash Proof”.
(386) Sean – Agreed – I loved “Crash Proof” and “Greenspan’s Bubbles.” I was in banking in the 70’s when Volker raised the rate. I watched business after business go under with their “tied to prime” operating loans at 20% but it cleaned up the mess. We survived. I hope the ECB does move up tomorrow and “nudges” us into action.
Rest up, tomorrow should be an interesting day…
Also in Hoboken, prices don’t matter, it’s the rent equivalent, that matters. If you can rent a place for more than it costs to own it then it’s an easy decision.
You do realize that rents can change as well don’t you? As in they don’t only go up.
Suppose you buy a place that is theoretically cash flow positive and live in it. The economy tanks, and you have to move for whatever reason, but you don’t want to sell at a loss, so you try renting it out. Only you find out that rents have also dropped drastically. And all the other shmucks who are in the same position and trying to rent theirs out as well.
Here’s a question for all you MLS guru’s out there. If an offer is made on a house does it get registered anywhere?
It seems anytime someone is interested in a house, someone else has a competing offer. Is there anyway to tell for sure? Around 2005 though, if they said they had another offer, it was usually true.
Oh, and good luck finding a place that’s cash flow positive.
“Suppose you buy a place that is theoretically cash flow positive and live in it. The economy tanks, and you have to move for whatever reason, but you don’t want to sell at a loss, so you try renting it out. Only you find out that rents have also dropped drastically. And all the other shmucks who are in the same position and trying to rent theirs out as well.”
That will never happen. Hoboken has the PATH to serve as a lifeline into it. Feeding it the rich blood of the NYC real estate market to keep it thriving. All those rich young wall street types have secure jobs. Banks never fail, people always need to borrow and save money.
I’m practicing in case I want to become a realtor. Did I lay it on too thick?
#312
Well, first of all, there is a reference to bearing arms in the bill of rights (even if slightly confusing), where there is no such direct reference to marriage.
I’m practicing in case I want to become a realtor. Did I lay it on too thick?
No, I think you nailed it. Might want to throw something in there about Wall $treet Bonu$e$ though.
#326
Patient– I know I am not saying anything you don’t already know, but in many people’s minds, the idea that something is an “interpretation” starts to get pretty specious by the time it is an interpretation of an interpretation of an interpretation (e.g., right to privacy based on penumbra; right to marriage based on right to privacy; right to birth control based on right to marriage; right to abortion based on right to birth control– each started from one highly stretched “interpretation.”) This to many people seems very distant from saying the 2d amendment applies individually as well as collectively, which is a fair interpretation (though not the only one) of the clause as written
#326
“For the record, in both cases, I read the constitution as limiting government power. In at least one, you do not.”
another approach is not to be results driven
Here’s a question for all you MLS guru’s out there. If an offer is made on a house does it get registered anywhere?
Sorry, but no.
#327
“I dont know why gun nuts are so happy about it.”
ADA– not a gun nut, but I think the decision resolves the debate as to whether there is even an individual right to bear arms at all. Up until now, this was unresolved.
#375 frank” I have been saying a lot of things for awhile (along with many others ons this site),and guess what they have been coming through.
For example when Bear Stearns ran into trouble last summer, I predicted they would be gone within a year;and they are. I also predicted there would be at least one more IB casualty (Lehman’s looking good for that nomination).
I could go on, but needless to say I have no doubts about my predictions regarding housing. I lived through the last one;this one is turning out to be far worse.
Which I also predicted.
#379 Prtraders:Beach has a great school system, but not much available in my $ range.
For now, that too will change. A year goes quickly.
“chicagofinance Says:
July 2nd, 2008 at 3:42 pm
I don’t know what this means….
BREAKING NEWS:
Lehman employees to get midyear bonuses equal to about 20% of compensation. Full story to follow shortly”
Delabreaker says it’s in Lehman stock
Well the demios paper says I made the right career choice.
#381 NNJ Housing bottomed in 2007. Sure it did, and it is going to snow tomorrow in NYC.
You are indeed a realtor.
#392 Tom Excellent. Just throw in the part about the million more new people who have to live somewhere.
Hobokenite Says:
July 2nd, 2008 at 6:41 pm
You do realize that rents can change as well don’t you? As in they don’t only go up.
Hbknt: as in…why should I pay you x when I can pay THE SAME to live in THE EQUIVALENT in Manhattan? This situation happened as recently as 2002.
Another thing I can’t understand is the huge 4000+ square foot homes with kitchens the size of a bathroom. All the realtors are like “oh you cook”. I rented in Long Island and Rhode Island and the kitchens were bigger in my rented condo. Why should I pay 700,000+ for a huge bedroom and marble bath when a 300,000 condo has a bigger kitchen and family room.
Top Schools, 5 mins to train station, selling below purchased price.. Where is it going to bottom?
Check this out:
http://www.realtor.com/search/listingdetail.aspx?ctid=90413&mnp=32&mxp=31&typ=7&sid=15d817aa6d67458a98ab3a300f3896ec&lid=1096755072&lsn=4&srcnt=12#Detail
Purchased 2004 for $585,000
Now at $579,000.
Houses in the same subdivision sold for $790k a year ago.
#403 3b
Not just 2007, but 12/07…
What was I thinking? Now I will have to pay the inflated 2008 price. Better get in now before I’m priced out forever…
/sarcasm off
clearly, Lehman bonuses are going to save local real estate. raise prices!
#388 grim
“Rest up, tomorrow should be an interesting day…”
I have a great day planned tomorrow. I have early dinner with my big boss in a midtown steak house, followed by Yankees Red Sox on the company dime.
396
“another approach is not to be results driven”
You must be referring to Bush v. Gore.
PGC
“Yankees Red Sox on the company dime.”
Same here. Come by and say hello!
#411
that is one good example
#369
from slide 20:
“the highest achieving students from poor backgrounds attend college at the same rate as the lowest achieving students from wealthy backgrounds. Or to put it more coarsely: the least bright wealthy kids attend college at the same rate as the smartest poor kids.”
just awful.
395 skep
Of course (although that all comes up in the first place as a result of “activist” courts taking a very narrow view of what “equal protection” meant (there’s another reference to Bush v. Gore, of course)).
It’s just that, in the minds of most of those people that you reference, the ability of the government to reach its tentacles into people’s lives is limited only to the lives of the people they dislike.
It doesn’t occur to them that, if they are correct on the merits, they’ve just agreed that they, too, have no right to privacy whatsoever.
(And, as I said, if the court had taken the obvious reading of equal protection in the first place, the penumbra and privacy issue would have been unnecessary in the context of this discussion).
patient– I think we mostly agree. People are more concerned about results than process, and the integrity of our courts and system of laws is reduced as a result.
#412 njpatient
Drop me an email to pgc100 at gmail and we’ll see if we can meet up.
414 skep
hadn’t looked at the demos presentation
That’s really upsetting.
RentL0rd Says:
July 2nd, 2008 at 7:20 pm
Top Schools, 5 mins to train station, selling below purchased price.. Where is it going to bottom?
Watch out, that’s Bi’s neck of the woods…you might disprove another one of his accurate predictions
unfortunately, the conclusion that demios draws from its study is more gov’t programs/increased spending. I would like to see Congress pass a bill which says that no college will get fed funding of any kind unless it holds its tuition flat in real terms going forward.
416 skep
Agreed.
” I would like to see Congress pass a bill which says that no college will get fed funding of any kind unless it holds its tuition flat in real terms going forward.”
Couldn’t agree more. There is a horrible credit bubble in college education, and frankly the undergrad degree is no longer worth it.
mini GTG at Yankee Stadium?
http://www.zillow.com/real-estate/NJ-Montclair
http://www.zillow.com/real-estate/NJ
American Airlines expects to cut nearly 7,000 employees by the end of the year, or about 8 percent of its worldwide work force, as it reduces flights and grounds aircraft because of high fuel prices, the airline told employees Wednesday.
The job cuts, which appear to be twice as big as those announced so far by any other carrier, could include as many as 900 flight attendants.
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/laland/2008/07/analyst-sees-gh.html
A financial analyst fresh from a tour of construction sites in the Inland Empire is warning Wall Street of a “ghost town” where finished homes sit vacant and additional homes are still under construction.
“At several properties, there were a significant number of fully built homes sitting vacant along with a large number of additional homes still under construction,” Sandler O’Neill & Partners analyst Aaron Deer wrote today after touring developments in Corona and Ontario. “At one master plan community, the entire development appeared to be vacant — with the exception of crews working on new construction, it was a ghost town.”
Median home prices in both communities have dropped sharply over the last year, declining 33.6% in Corona and 30.3% in Ontario, according to DataQuick Information Systems. In Corona, the median sales price fell nearly $200,000 from May 2007 to May 2008, dropping from $565,000 to $375,000.
More from Deer’s note: “The homes all appeared to be empty, and there were no prospective buyers anywhere to be found. Surprisingly, the sales office was open … but the woman working there had questionable English fluency. When asked how many homes had been sold in the past month she simply responded, ‘Uh huh. Thank you. Yes!’ and handed us some additional literature on the property.”
$143.57
njp:
It seems like jamil still has not revealed his pick for the best governed, lowest taxed “Red” state he would move to….
nope
#427 njp
They should just raise prices. That will attract the buyers.
Why are they still building if they can’t sell any existing inventory?
how my posts sometimes get stuck in moderation?
SAS
upper management should be the first to go at UNH for the stock backdating scandals.
Instead, they will layoff ray ray in the mailroom.
UNH management = total morons!
“UnitedHealth cuts 4,000 jobs and 2008 outlook”
http://tinyurl.com/3sh4xe
SAS
and you blokes think that crook Obama 08 will bring “change”
lol… ha ha… oh man…
thats more funny than the “mo fire show” in Kingston, Jamaica.
SAS
and on the other hand, we have John “songbird” McCain.
we are screwed.
SAS
ok, I’m in moderation.
I’m out of here.
SAS
Bergen County for First Half of Year
Median Price
Down 4% from last year
Down 6% from peak in 2006
Sales
Down 30% from last year
Down 40% from peak in 2005
Under Contract (Pending)
Down 25% from last year
Down 36% from peak in 2005
I’m out, head cold in summer….
American Airlines expects to cut nearly 7,000 employees by the end of the year, or about 8 percent of its worldwide work force
When multinational CEOs say they are hiring, it is most probably in BRIC.
When CEOs say they are laying off, most hit will probably be in the US.
“Lehman Raises Stock Portion of Staff Pay”
Ah, the old give something worth nothing trick
heh
so true
the old “let’s give ’em something other than cash because we have no cash” trick.
432 sas
I would guess due to multiple links
433 sas
as it has ever been, so shall it ever be.
435 Rich
Thanks, yet again, for the great stats.
If you don’t post those again in the am, I will.
If only we could get an interpretation from pretorius.
grim (388)-
Will sleep the sleep of the dead…loaded to the gills with GLD and SKF (thanks, Frank, for the contra-indicator on that one).
All that’s left is for Trichet to drop the guillotine blade.
Saw my first Presidential Election bumper sticker for 2008.
Cheney
Satan
’08