Mon 7 Jul 2008
St. Louis Fed: Home Price Drop Necessary
Categories: Economics , Housing Bubble , National Real EstateFrom the St. Louis Fed:
The Mortgage Crisis: Let Markets Work, But Compensate the Truly Needy
From the AFP:
Fed study says home price drop ‘necessary’
Large-scale government intervention in the US housing crisis would be counterproductive and prevent a “necessary” correction in home prices, according to a Federal Reserve study released Monday.
The study by economist William Emmons of the St. Louis Fed concluded that “government interventions directly in housing or mortgage markets are not necessarily the best policy responses.”
“By allowing markets to sort themselves out quickly, a foundation for sustainable homeownership and responsible mortgage lending can be re-established,” the regional branch of the central bank said.
The report said home prices in many parts of the country may fall from their peak levels in 2006 or 2007 by the largest amount in several decades, but that “from an economic standpoint this decline of overvalued properties is necessary.”
“If house prices are allowed to remain artificially high, homebuilders will make the eventual correction even worse by supplying more unneeded houses and driving prices down even further,” the report said.
The economist noted that the phenomenon of home foreclosure is an “unpleasant, but essential aspect of the mortgage market.”
“In order to ensure the mortgage market functions effectively, the lender must have the ability to seize the borrower’s property as collateral,” the report said.
“Without the possibility of foreclosure, mortgage rates would be more on par with those of credit cards,” said Emmons.
“It is important to keep in mind that there will be those individuals who are truly harmed by the crisis,” said Emmons.
“The financial distress to borrowers and communities caused by foreclosure should be addressed directly,” he said, with a stronger “social safety net.”
July 7th, 2008 at 6:20 pm
Someone send this to Congress, because they don’t care and will pass the bailout anyway. Suckers are waiting to pay for it.
July 7th, 2008 at 6:21 pm
From the St. Louis Fed:
The Mortgage Crisis: Let Markets Work, But Compensate the Truly Needy
July 7th, 2008 at 6:21 pm
has this guy been fired yet? Last I checked, the $300B bailout was moving full steam ahead
July 7th, 2008 at 6:22 pm
He’s never gonna keep his job with ideas like that…
sarcasm off/
July 7th, 2008 at 6:28 pm
I think Mr. Emmons car is about to run off a dark, deserted road.
July 7th, 2008 at 6:42 pm
Sounds like a disgruntled Federal employee. He’ll probably keep writing papers like that until Mozillo gives him a lifetime membership to ForeverTan.
July 7th, 2008 at 6:51 pm
From the Star Ledger:
Carla Katz removed as president of state-worker union
CWA leader Carla Katz, the former girlfriend of Gov. Jon Corzine, was removed from the presidency of the largest state-worker union today after an internal investigation found evidence she misappropriated union funds and violated federal labor law, according to a CWA news release.
The action was taken after a unanimous vote of the national board of the Communications Workers of America, which appointed a temporary administrator to oversee CWA Local 1034 pending the outcome of a July 22 hearing.
“An extensive internal review revealed probable cause to believe that the local is engaged in ongoing financial malpractice, the misappropriation of union funds, a failure to comply with state and federal law, as well as the CWA constitution, and the suppression of dissent,” CWA’s national board said in a news release. “The CWA national executive board has determined that it has no choice but to take this action to protect the rights and resources of the members of Local 1034.”
July 7th, 2008 at 6:53 pm
#2 Where was this guy in 05?
July 7th, 2008 at 6:57 pm
#7 Is there a future perp walk for Katz?
July 7th, 2008 at 6:59 pm
“Fed study says home price drop ‘necessary’”
I said that too a short while ago. Maybe we should ask more programmers and less economists. Definately less realtors and appraisers :)
July 7th, 2008 at 7:05 pm
grim (7)-
Guess Carla had better invest in a fresh, new pair of knee pads.
July 7th, 2008 at 7:06 pm
“…extensive internal review revealed probable cause to believe that the local is engaged in ongoing financial malpractice, the misappropriation of union funds, a failure to comply with state and federal law, as well as the CWA constitution, and the suppression of dissent…”
Funny. I thought all this stuff was part of Carla’s job description.
July 7th, 2008 at 7:10 pm
re Fed Study, so, in he last three decades does anyone have an idea of what would amount to the ‘largest drop’? Could NNJ possibly figure into the picture as one of these parts of the country? Thanks if anyone has some thoughts on this.
July 7th, 2008 at 7:21 pm
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=92213600
“Her latest book, When I’m Sixty-Four: The Plot Against Pensions and the Plan to Save Them, proposes that pensions should be managed by the federal government rather than Wall Street.”
July 7th, 2008 at 7:29 pm
From Bloomberg:
IndyMac Cuts Half its Staff as Mortgage Losses Mount
IndyMac Bancorp Inc., the lender whose market value has plunged by almost 90 percent this year, will fire half its employees after regulators said the company is no longer “well capitalized” and the quarterly loss widened.
IndyMac will slash its workforce by 53 percent to 3,400 employees and curtail lending, the Pasadena, California-based lender said today on its Web site. The company said it is working with regulators on a new business plan.
“We don’t expect to be able to raise capital until there is more stability and less uncertainty in the housing and mortgage markets,” Chief Executive Officer Michael Perry said in the statement.
IndyMac, the second-biggest independent U.S. mortgage lender last year behind Countrywide Financial Corp., has lost almost $900 million in the nine months ended in March amid tumbling home prices. The company is focusing on mortgages that can be sold to government-sponsored enterprises like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
July 7th, 2008 at 7:33 pm
Pat - Your new town sounds great. Apart from the Barbies that is.
July 7th, 2008 at 7:33 pm
#7 What a surprise, more corruption in NJ> Thank goodness we have NNJ to defend NJ.
July 7th, 2008 at 7:35 pm
Back from first day on the job.
Better than expected.
I get a secretary and an expense account (unexpected) and every possibility of moving to a 4 day workweek to help with gas costs, so the giant commute will be less of a burden.
If I can work out a telecommute eventually one day a week we would REALLY be talking.
Nice people, great environment. Absolutely no complaints. Looks like I will be very busy though.
July 7th, 2008 at 7:46 pm
Pat, I just spent the weekend on my best behavior as I was at the bf’s home where he grew up somewhere in your vicinity. His mom and I went for a walk through a very long and nice walkable stretch of their suburb with pools and schools and stores just like you described. I flipped through the local paper and was surprised at the number of places around DC offering 2 - 2.5 months of free rent just to get people in the door. Sounds like it’s a good time to be a renter if you want to live in downtown DC.
July 7th, 2008 at 7:48 pm
lisoosh, if I weren’t worried about a possible lurker amongst them, I’d post a hair-raising picture I found on a newsletter from one of the groups they’re in. I don’t know if and/or where you went to college, but when I went to Penn State, chicks from Maryland were considered Barbieclones.
Maybe I’ll risk it. The picture.
One weekend last month though, I found hope. We were waiting to meeting someone to look at his house (not yet sold, so renting). Next door, a 50-ish woman in clogs was gardening in the rain. I walked over and shouted to her her that she looked like my best friend - an immigrant from Germany who had, sadly, moved South, far away from me. She jumped up and said, “I am from Germany! My husband died, and I am now retired! Come to eat with me.”
I now have high hopes for my interim time in Maryland until I find a job. Belegtes Brot. Beer. Wurst. Nichtes Barbie.
July 7th, 2008 at 7:50 pm
Real estate in Bergen County (per the NJMLS data) is on fire.
It’s burning DOWN.
First Half Stats
Year Sold U/C*
1991 3,151 4,794
1992 3,591 4,966
1993 3,542 4,919
1994 3,940 5,180
1995 3,235 4,639
1996 3,500 5,359
1997 3,834 5,253
1998 4,246 5,882
1999 4,364 5,494
2000 4,054 5,189
2001 3,822 5,019
2002 4,545 5,468
2003 4,139 5,344
2004 4,652 5,844
2005 4,796 6,026
2006 4,024 5,167
2007 4,134 5,110
2008 2,889 3,849
*Under Contract = Pending Sales
Sales down 40% from peak in 2005, U/C down 36% from peak in 2005
Median price is down 6% from the peak in 2006
July 7th, 2008 at 9:03 pm
soosh (18)-
Welcome back to the world of grifting. Whatever it is you’re doing, it damn well beats the crap out of telling deadbeats to stay in their homes rather than mailing back the keys and taking the Penske Express to NC in the dead of night.
Best wishes to you in the new job!
July 7th, 2008 at 9:04 pm
Pat (20)-
“I now have high hopes for my interim time in Maryland until I find a job. Belegtes Brot. Beer. Wurst. Nichtes Barbie.”
You’re below the Mason-Dixon. Tread lightly.
July 7th, 2008 at 9:07 pm
“Real estate in Bergen County”
Are you telling me that with everything that’s going on in the RE market, 2,889 homes still sold? That’s a great news. Even better news is the fact that prices only dropped 6%.
Most people in this country only wish for this kind of market. Let’s hope things continue this way.
July 7th, 2008 at 9:22 pm
Hey RichinNNJ,
Thanks for that pickmeup data! Any idea how many homes were for sale during the first half of the year (2008) for BC?
July 7th, 2008 at 9:23 pm
“5 luxury condos? Funny, I only count 4.”
If you have the guts to offer a 1 bedroom in Hoboken for 1M, market still must be good.
July 7th, 2008 at 9:40 pm
Frank (26)-
“If you have the guts to offer a 1 bedroom in Hoboken for 1M, market still must be good.”
Frank, don’t confuse stupid- or being tapped out- for guts.
July 7th, 2008 at 9:45 pm
“Are you telling me that with everything that’s going on in the RE market, 2,889 homes still sold?”
i think I kind of agree with this bloke.
I thought sales would be worse.
but, this also has along way to unravel.
If this number stays constant, there will be massive pain.
if that number dips below 2k, they will be sending people to FEMA camps.
SAS
July 7th, 2008 at 9:47 pm
“PSE&G Seeks Increase in Electric Transmission Rate”
http://tinyurl.com/5vnv26
SAS
July 7th, 2008 at 9:50 pm
Clot, don’t think I’m not worried. I’m five feet tall, but as you know, I wear size 13 stompers when it comes to treading.
July 7th, 2008 at 9:54 pm
Unless Bergen County population or household formation takes a dive, the buyers and sellers will retrun. Question is which side can wait out the longest.
July 7th, 2008 at 9:57 pm
NNJ (31)-
Bergen Co’s population is dropping.
Bergen Co’s household formation is dropping (as are the national numbers).
Markets in decline feature buyers who can wait longer than sellers can remain solvent.
Next?
July 7th, 2008 at 10:02 pm
“Question is which side can wait out the longest”
thats easy to answer. we done borrowed and used up all our future buyers.
moving forward, there will always be more sellers than buyers.
SAS
July 7th, 2008 at 10:03 pm
Clot - Thanks. I’ll be trying to pry cash out of the hands of the well heeled. Lots of shmoozing. It has some negatives, but compared to B to B sales, or listening to kids and bored housewives bickering all day it is a dream.
Pat - I WANT TO SEE THE PICTURE. Lurkers be d*mned. Glad you found surprisingly compatable company. I went to college in Scotland, so no Barbies there. But we do have one or two at my gym. Luckily the rest of us plebes outnumber them so they haven’t managed to get a serious foothold. I find Barbies like company and prefer to travel in packs.
July 7th, 2008 at 10:06 pm
“Intervention Will Not Stop the Dollar’s Slide”
http://tinyurl.com/67jh6b
SAS
July 7th, 2008 at 10:06 pm
#32
Clot,
NJ seems to be following the same pattern as San Diego and Las Vegas. Price increases slow, flatline, then prices drop a bit but volume falls significantly. Then comes the crash. I’m already seeing prices off 15% and more in Florham Park, Basking Ridge, Warren, Summit, New Providence.
I think we are nearing the look out below stage if NJ follows the other bubble land bursts. Especially as credit gets tighter and tighter.
July 7th, 2008 at 10:09 pm
If you have the guts to offer a 1 bedroom in Hoboken for 1M, market still must be good.
Askin’ ain’t gettin
July 7th, 2008 at 10:09 pm
Someone forgot to tell all those buyers in Bergen.
All those slacker Gen Y will eventually have to move out, form household and get their own place.
The last number I found on Bergen County population was 2006 which showed an increase from prior years.
July 7th, 2008 at 10:10 pm
As home prices decline and Washington struggles to end the economic malaise, Wall Street is starting to send a sobering message: The worst is yet to come.
….
The declines, along with a falling stock market and growing unease about the possibility of more red ink at big banks, reflect a growing conviction consensus among investors that the current housing slump will last longer, and prove more severe, than initially feared.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/08/business/08fannie.html
July 7th, 2008 at 10:13 pm
I think that last sentence should really end like this:
“reflect a growing conviction consensus among even the most stupid investors that the current housing slump will last longer, and prove more severe, than initially feared.”
July 7th, 2008 at 10:15 pm
“All those slacker Gen Y will eventually have to move out, form household and get their own place”
nope, not in NJ. People in their 20s still suck on mom’s teets until Mom dies or goes to a home, then they take over the roost.
You may have heard of the Chicago way, but this my friend, is the NJ way.
SAS
July 7th, 2008 at 10:15 pm
“Still making money by resisting siren song of subprime”
http://www.denverpost.com/economy/ci_9789811
SAS
July 7th, 2008 at 10:16 pm
Not the Gen Y I know. They get a place close to Parents, and the helicopter parents never move south.
July 7th, 2008 at 10:16 pm
NNJ (38)-
“All those slacker Gen Y will eventually have to move out, form household and get their own place.”
Oh, yeah…there are some real moneyed-up, ready-to-pull-the-trigger buyers. Damn, I didn’t think of all those people for a minute. Let me revise my previous statement; all is well!
Beavis and Butthead, moving out of the MaPa Hotel, are going to save the BC market.
Please send me some of what you’re smoking. Now.
July 7th, 2008 at 10:18 pm
NNJ (43)-
“Not the Gen Y I know. They get a place close to Parents, and the helicopter parents never move south.”
In case no one else has mentioned this to you, NNJ: you’re shoveling shit all over yourself.
July 7th, 2008 at 10:25 pm
bairen (36)-
I don’t think we’ll hit the Ground Zero cities’ (San Diego, Vegas, Miami, Phoenix) depths when our prices go into free fall. That being said, I do believe it will be worse than anything ever seen here before…because NYC won’t be the source of fleeing & moneyed-up buyers. Also, NJ has never entered a RE downturn with a cemented reputation of being a complete welfare state.
Last time around, we at least had the reputation of being a job incubator and wealth-producing state. That’s long gone, probably never to return.
July 7th, 2008 at 10:27 pm
hey blokes!
Just bought a steam distiller…
its way cool dadio!
nice clean water;)
SAS
July 7th, 2008 at 10:28 pm
Lisoosh
Congrats! Welcome back to the world of work. It sounds like it was the right decision.
July 7th, 2008 at 10:29 pm
sas (47)-
Buy some used Sherry and Burgundy barrels, and give me a call.
July 7th, 2008 at 10:30 pm
Speaking of helicopter parents- the tenant that moved in downstairs did so because his daughter is going to school here in the neighborhood. She has a separate place and he moved to the same block. It’s the most bizarre thing I’ve ever heard. This takes the f@(king cake!
July 7th, 2008 at 10:33 pm
#46 Clot,
I think NJ is going to drop at least 35% from peak, maybe even up to 50%. When you throw in higher energy and food, tighter lending standards, and serious job losses on Wall St and Pharma, prop taxes going up 7%+ it’s going to get ugly.
Maybe not like Tampa’s 30 cents on the dollar ugly, but still ugly.
July 7th, 2008 at 10:34 pm
l - I’m wincing here, and these could be truly nice folk who just happen to look like a sorority 25 year reunion. But I’m posting it. P4.
http://tinyurl.com/6qxpzn
Now, that’s not the town I’m moving to, but it’s similar, in many ways.
July 7th, 2008 at 10:38 pm
Pat
I guess it’s the NY in me, but having a caption mentioning a Hoedown under a picture of 5 or 6 women just made me wonder why they’d advertise it in the town newslatter.
July 7th, 2008 at 10:40 pm
#52 Pat
Page 4 has an article about a hoedown. Where’s John when we need him?
July 7th, 2008 at 10:40 pm
#53 lostinny
You beat me to it!
July 7th, 2008 at 10:44 pm
bairen (51)-
Wouldn’t shock me. Who knows where this thing will end up? We’re in uncharted waters.
I’m not a data geek, but I’d love to see the YOY numbers for NJ during the Depression. If I were modeling future declines, that’s a baseline I’d want to build into my projections.
July 7th, 2008 at 10:45 pm
53 That’s newsletter. Damn fingers.
July 7th, 2008 at 10:45 pm
55 Bairen
Gotcha!
July 7th, 2008 at 10:46 pm
Bairn and lost, thanks, I needed a shit and a giggle.
Just spent the last hour dealing with my little girl’s “sad sickness in the belly” and crying.
Apparently, in our current mixed/diverse community and her summer camp, there are some very wise 8 year olds who told her that nobody in Maryland likes new kids, especially from up here.
In fact, J’naiaisa told her she better just stay up here with her.
July 7th, 2008 at 10:47 pm
Pat (52)-
That’s some sick shit. Like friggin’ Halloween, every day of the year.
Word to those ladies: crunches.
Arm yourself.
July 7th, 2008 at 10:59 pm
NNJ,
Bergen County averaged zero population growth over the last few years as the number of American citizens leaving BC were roughly offset by immigrants & babies.
While there were outight population declines in 2005 & 2006, there was an uptick in 2007 as the number of people leaving BC dropped. A Rutgers Bloustein School (don’t have a link, but I’m sure you can find it)postulates that the slowing of people leaving NJ is because many people can’t leave at this point because they can’t sell their homes & don’t have enough equity to drop the price to a realistic level.
For some people it’s as if the last helicopter has left Saigon and they are left behind, unable to leave, stuck in a home falling in value, with inceasing property taxes.
http://www.census.gov/popest/counties/files/CO-EST2007-ALLDATA.csv
July 7th, 2008 at 10:59 pm
Who the hell has time to write a 20 page newsletter?
July 7th, 2008 at 11:07 pm
Pat
I’m sorry your little girl is dealing with this. I’m sure if she continues to be herself, they will like her and feel bad they said anything so terrible. And if not, you can always take them all to see Hancock and threaten to do to those kids what he did to the bully.
July 7th, 2008 at 11:10 pm
“Are you telling me that with everything that’s going on in the RE market, 2,889 homes still sold? That’s a great news. Even better news is the fact that prices only dropped 6%.
Most people in this country only wish for this kind of market. Let’s hope things continue this way.”
Frank, are you for real? I really can’t tell. Is this supposed to be sarcasm? Is this some attempt at humor through parody?
Sales started declining in 2005 yet prices kept rising through 2006. Sales are dropping dramatically but prices aren’t falling at similar paces. This screams of artificially inflated prices. The real estate industry had already been cited by the government for artificially inflating prices as early as 2001 so it wouldn’t be a surprise to find out that’s more what’s keeping housing prices from crashing the way sales have.
Do you have a brother named Donald or something?
July 7th, 2008 at 11:14 pm
hm… I posted a comment it doesn’t show, not even as in moderation. If I try to resubmit it says it’s a duplicate. Did something change?
July 7th, 2008 at 11:15 pm
nevermind there it is. I cleared my cache and everything and didn’t see it.
July 7th, 2008 at 11:22 pm
THINK FHA….THE DOWN PAYMENT DOES NOT HAVE TO COME FROM THE HOME BUYERS FUNDS, LENIENT CREDIT SCORES AND THE RATES ARE THE BEST IN THE MARKET…..WE CAN SELL OUR LISTINGS IF WE GET CREATIVE. LETS FIND THE BUYER THAT NEEDS A BREAK.
The above is from an actual listing.
KL
July 7th, 2008 at 11:26 pm
kl (65)-
Sounds like an invitation to mortgage fraud. And, a POS listing.
July 7th, 2008 at 11:28 pm
BTW, Jamie Dimon on Charlie Rose right now, acting like he has a clue.
Everyone, please now ignore JPM’s derivatives exposure…
July 7th, 2008 at 11:29 pm
reporting from Swan and Dolphin in Disney,
Everyone here is from europe and latin America. Unbelivable.
On the 4th, Magic kingdom was closed as it reached capacity. It was literaly a zoo, chaotic experience.
Everyone is spending money.
Don’t underestimate the foreign consumer.
Too funny. I know someone who works there, and it’s always like that. Top hotel in Disney. Starhot rate, baby!!
You want to freak someone there out, ask about the woman who killed her husband a few months ago at the hotel. Was kept super down low. She caught him cheating.
July 8th, 2008 at 12:02 am
Clotpoll Says:
July 7th, 2008 at 9:40 pm
Frank (26)- “If you have the guts to offer a 1 bedroom in Hoboken for 1M, market still must be good.” Frank, don’t confuse stupid- or being tapped out- for guts.
clots: Mr. Futer is jess trollin’….
July 8th, 2008 at 12:12 am
I’m going through files and papers, getting ready to move. I came across a folder containing info from my ill-fated 2004 real estate search. Agents handed out fliers showing how affordable a given property was with 3/1 ARM, 5/1 ARM, etc. showing the estimated monthly payment for each scenario in neat little rows. On some of the properties I checked the creative loans would have cost about $1000 less per month than a traditional 30 year fixed - and that was with mortgages dipping below 5%. I’m going to keep the fliers for the Alan Greenspan Bubble Museum collection.
July 8th, 2008 at 6:37 am
Gen Y ( which I am in )
Lives at home driving the leased M3 making 60-70k while working on masters degree.
July 8th, 2008 at 6:39 am
oops I was wrong. My post is in moderation :(
I know I should have tried to sell some sort of sex aid instead of talking about the real estate market.
July 8th, 2008 at 6:44 am
OT
but a laugh for the day
http://www.keithwhite.us/footballquote.html
July 8th, 2008 at 6:50 am
Similarities between 1929 and 2008 terrifying
The Prairie Dog Press
Will Bagley
Article Last Updated: 07/05/2008 11:40:47 AM MDT
Click photo to enlarge
Will Bagley
* «
* 1
* »
Watching Wall Street and the American real-estate market crumble over the past 10 months has not inspired great confidence in our wonderful free-market economy or the land pirates who run it. As someone who recently wrestled with the causes and consequences of the Great Depression, I find the current economic shipwreck not merely spooky but downright terrifying.
Working as a historian is a discouraging business. No one seems to learn anything from history - that’s pretty much a given - but we keep hoping. As a chronicler of the 19th century American West, I had my work cut out when a family friend asked me to write a biography of her father, Judge Wilson McCarthy.
Herbert Hoover appointed McCarthy to represent Western Democrats on the board of the Reconstruction Finance Corporation, Hoover’s only real response to the worst economic disaster in American history. The RFC attempted to restore liquidity to the economy by getting cash out from underneath mattresses and into circulation.
Last year I had to look up “liquidity” to remind myself what it meant. Today I could sort through 23.2 million Google hits to learn more.
“History doesn’t repeat itself,” Mark Twain said, “but it does rhyme.”
The similarities between economic conditions in 1929 and 2008 rhyme like hickory, dickory, dock. As early as 1935, “brain truster” Rexford Tugwell identified the root cause of the
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Great Depression as the failure “to pass on a fair share of the spectacular productivity gains of the 1920s” to both labor and consumers.
An enduring agricultural depression, the grossly inequitable distribution of wealth, massive consumer debt, tax cuts for the rich and what historian Robert S. McElvaine called “the wild speculation of the decade’s orgy of greed,” all made matters worse. This multifaceted bankruptcy led to the Great Depression, but massive corporate corruption and the incompetence of the ruling class are unappreciated, if familiar, factors in creating the catastrophe.
Free marketeers struggle to explain away the collapse of the virtually unregulated economy of the Roaring Twenties. In 1963 economist Milton Friedman elucidated the failure of laissez faire as “a tragic testimonial to the importance of monetary forces.” Adam Smith’s disciples laid the blame on the regulators, specifically the Federal Reserve Board’s attempt to rein in speculation on Wall Street.
At Friedman’s 90th birthday celebration in 2002, then-Fed board member Ben Bernanke said, “You’re right, we did it. We’re very sorry.” I wonder what Chairman Bernanke is sorry for now?
The only trouble with capitalism is the capitalists, Herbert Hoover told a journalist. “They’re too damn greedy.” The Depression proved him right. “We must all do our bit,” said J. P. Morgan, but the great financier did not pay a nickel in federal income tax in 1930, and neither he nor his partners paid any in 1931 or 1932.
Treasury Secretary Ogden Mills granted his father’s estate $6 million in relief on what is now damned as the “death tax.” The Chicago Tribune called on citizens to pay their full taxes, while its publisher, tycoon Robert R. McCormick, handed over only $1,515. Investment banker S.J.T. Strauss paid a whopping $18 in taxes. At the same time, wealthy Americans sent $100 million in gold to Europe every week in the first months of 1932.
As a survivor of what he called “the Great Slump,” the great European historian Eric Hobsbawm found it almost impossible to grasp how free-market orthodoxy, so obviously discredited in 1933, “once again came to preside over a global period of depression in the late 1980s and 1990s.”
Hobsbawm believed this strange phenomenon evoked “the incredible shortness of memory of both the theorists and practitioners of economics.” It also showed why society needed historians to act as “professional remembrancers of what their fellow citizens wish to forget.”
There are differences between today and 1929; for example, the dollar was in great shape and the deficit was virtually nonexistent. So why worry? Most historians believe history doesn’t repeat itself. It just seems to.
—
* WILL BAGLEY is an author, publisher and historian. Utah State University Press released his “Always a Cowboy: Judge Wilson McCarthy and the Rescue of the Denver & Rio Grande Western Railroad.”
July 8th, 2008 at 6:51 am
Citi: Banks Will Have $5 Trillion Restored to Balance Sheets
Monday, July 7, 2008 4:54 PM
Article Font Size
Accounting changes expected to take effect by 2009 will add $5 trillion to the balance sheets of banks and other U.S. financial institutions, says Citigroup’s head of global credit strategy Matt King.
The changes will return to banks’ books the majority of the assets that were securitized previously — but those assets will not need to be funded, King told the Financial Times.
http://moneynews.com/streettalk/securitized_assets/2008/07/07/110645.html
July 8th, 2008 at 6:54 am
Troll (24),
Nice try.
July 8th, 2008 at 7:01 am
vodka (75)-
Nice to see that Citi has decided that its strategy will now be grounded in the concept of magical rescues.
July 8th, 2008 at 7:09 am
afe (25),
Inventory data only goes back to 2004. Here is the data for the first half of the year.
Year Units Active
2004 4131
2005 4113
2006 6680
2007 6351
2008 6591
July 8th, 2008 at 7:12 am
Al,
this one’s for you
Indian city pays residents to use toilet
http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/asiapcf/07/07/india.toilets/index.html
July 8th, 2008 at 7:19 am
Boone Pickens on Squawk, laying out his plan to save the world.
July 8th, 2008 at 7:53 am
#74 kettle1
“At Friedman’s 90th birthday celebration in 2002, then-Fed board member Ben Bernanke said, “You’re right, we did it. We’re very sorry.” I wonder what”
Is he talking about the 30’s or 2009?
I have a theory on how Bergabe got his post. Must share it at the next GTG
July 8th, 2008 at 8:19 am
From MarketWatch
Fed aid to brokers may be extended beyond 2008: Bernanke
The Federal Reserve’s emergency loans to broker-dealers may be extended beyond 2008, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke disclosed Tuesday. “We are currently monitoring developments in financial markets closely and considering several options, including extending the duration of our facilities for primary dealers beyond year-end,” Bernanke said in a speech to an FDIC-conference.
But otherwise, everything’s peachy! Bordering to “on fire”!
July 8th, 2008 at 8:21 am
Grim I’m in mod? Oh its the c word.
July 8th, 2008 at 8:24 am
From Bloomberg
Fed’s Loans to Wall Street May Prevent Raising Rates This Year
The Federal Reserve may hold off on its first interest-rate increase since 2006 until policy makers judge that financial markets are stable enough to allow the central bank to withdraw its lending backstop for Wall Street.
Raising rates while at the same time removing securities dealers’ access to direct loans from the central bank would be a double hit to markets that officials probably want to avoid, Fed watchers said. The Fed also may have a hard time justifying higher borrowing costs before it has a plan for ending emergency lending to nonbanks.
July 8th, 2008 at 8:29 am
From Bloomberg
Fannie, Freddie Capital Concerns Send Bond Risk to 14-Week High
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac triggered a surge in the cost of protecting company debt from default to the highest in 14 weeks on concern the two largest U.S. mortgage finance companies may need to raise $75 billion.
…
Record delinquencies on home loans already helped cause financial companies worldwide to write down more than $400 billion on debt holdings and prompted Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to raise almost $20 billion in new capital. They may need as much as $75 billion more as new accounting rules require them to bring off-balance sheet mortgages on to their books, according to Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. analysts led by Bruce Harting.
“Fannie and Freddie spooked everything,” said Jim Reid, head of fundamental credit strategy at Deutsche Bank AG in London. “At this stage in the cycle, it is very difficult to raise capital.”
…
Banks repossessed twice as many homes in May as they did a year ago and foreclosure filings rose 48 percent, according to Realty Trac Inc., a real estate database in Irvine, California. Home prices in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas fell 15.3 percent in April by the most on record, the S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index shows.
“Trying to raise $75 billion in the current environment would be very difficult,” said Mark McCarthy, a credit trader at ABN Amro Holding NV in Sydney. “I don’t think investors are going to be as forthcoming about stumping up the cash that we’ve seen in the past.”
July 8th, 2008 at 8:32 am
From Marketwatch
Wachovia slashes Merrill estimates, predicts $5B write-down
Merrill Lynch & Co. will write-down $5 billion for the second quarter, an analyst for Wachovia Corp. said Tuesday. Wachovia Corp. analyst Doug Sipkin also slashed his second quarter estimate for the bank to a loss of $2.16 a share, from a previous estimate of a per-share profit of 63 cents. Sipkin lowered his 2008 full-year estimate for the bank to a loss of $3.11 a share from a per-share profit of 15 cents.
But Merrill is probably hiring like crazy…
July 8th, 2008 at 8:33 am
Big Ben on squak box later today should be fun.
BTW this is a strange recession. Broke down and took the kiddies to Mary Poppins on Saturday in the city. Theater sold out, side walks packed, restaurants had a wait to sit and I saw plenty a non tourist girl with a shopping bag from American girl at the play.
Housing is dead mainly because it is no longer cool or trendy to do. The lemmings who bought SUVS, five dollar cups of coffee and McMansions to show off in 2005 now are called idiots if they bought that stuff so they have stopped. If the stock market came roaring back the psycology will need to change. Remember the NYC Coop? Back in 1987/1988 every cocktail party was about insider deal/conversions and how coop fliping, well when that bubble burst in 1991/1992 the word coop became a four letter word for the rest of the 1990s regardless of the fact that the economy was doing great, rates were low and buying a coop was cheaper than renting. No one wanted them.
July 8th, 2008 at 8:34 am
From Marketwatch
Bernanke: Fed needs powers to oversee money markets
Bernanke: New powers needed if Fed given job to stop turmoil
Bernanke: Fed should oversee payment, settlement system
Bernanke cautiously pushes for new powers for Fed
Bernanke: Fed mulling extending loans to brokers beyond 2008
July 8th, 2008 at 8:35 am
Congrats Aaron, well deserved recognition!
Loan Pains Turned Site Into a Hit
The misery in the housing market is registering on the Implode-O-Meter.
As millions of homeowners fall behind on their mortgages, a fledging Web site called the Mortgage Lender Implode-O-Meter is gleefully tallying the number of lenders that run into trouble too. On Monday, the count was 265 — and rising.
With its tongue-in-cheek tone and running lists of the “imploded” and the merely “ailing,” the Implode-O-Meter has become a sort of Gawker of the subprime world. At a recent Mortgage Bankers Association conference, a speaker addressed what has become a hot topic among lenders: how to keep your company’s name off the site.
“No one wants to be number 266,” said Jim Reichbach, a vice chairman and leader of Deloitte’s banking and securities team. “This is a death toll that is equivalent to the casualty ticker of the Vietnam War.”
July 8th, 2008 at 8:39 am
From MarketWatch:
IndyMac forbidden to make new loans
IndyMac Bancorp said that regulators have told the lender it isn’t “well capitalized” after failing to raise new capital, a move that raises tough questions about the troubled company’s viability.
Late Monday, the Pasadena, Calif.-based company said it has agreed to a new business plan with regulators which includes halting new mortgages to shrink its balance sheet and improve capital ratios. It will also cut 3,800 jobs, bringing staff levels to roughly 3,400.
IndyMac is also barred from accepting new brokered deposits unless it gets a waiver from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., a bank regulator that insures deposits. But the company said it’s not certain a waiver will be granted. Second-quarter losses may be larger than the first-quarter, the company also warned.
“Insured financial institutions don’t fail in the U.S., they go through an orderly unwinding process under the guidance of regulators, and I think that’s what we’re seeing with IndyMac,” said Fred Cannon, analyst with Keefe Bruyette & Woods, in an interview on Monday. “We do not expect IndyMac will be the last financial institution to go through this.”
July 8th, 2008 at 8:41 am
“But Merrill is probably hiring like crazy…”
They are hiring aggressively, so is Citi, Pfizer, and ton of hedge funds.
July 8th, 2008 at 8:41 am
From The Record
400 North Jerseyans getting pink slip
Four North Jersey companies have announced plans to lay off more than 400 workers in the coming months, including about 150 at a Jersey City office of Bank of America, state records show.
More details at the link above
July 8th, 2008 at 8:46 am
From The Record
More paring for Linens ‘n Things
Linens ‘n Things Inc., the bankrupt housewares retailer, asked a judge for permission to close 87 more stores, which would shrink it to about two-thirds the size it was before seeking court protection from creditors in May.
The company cited “the decline in the housing market and the tightening of the credit markets which have led, respectively, to a decline in consumer discretionary spending,” in court papers filed July 3.
Huh? It’s as if not enough homes are selling and those that own aren’t buying “stuff”. Odd since RE is “on fire” in NJ…
July 8th, 2008 at 8:48 am
“Frank, are you for real? ”
Tom,
Show me the price declines. Where are they? Can I buy a home in NJ for 2003 prices? Can I buy a condo in Hoboken for 2005 prices?
Get real Tom, people are still buying homes in NJ and paying top prices for them. Stop reading the negative stories, get out there and look around, homes are still selling in NJ. Prices have barely dropped.
July 8th, 2008 at 8:48 am
They are hiring aggressively, so is Citi, Pfizer, and ton of hedge funds.
You left out Bank of America.
July 8th, 2008 at 8:53 am
Has frank admitted what he does for a living?
July 8th, 2008 at 8:57 am
I’m thinking recently unemployed.
July 8th, 2008 at 8:57 am
Thanks Rich. Wow! I know it is not a perfect statistic but that looks like 1:1 sold/for sale ratio in 2004 that has ’surprisingly’ moved to an almost 1:2 ratio in 2008. Hmmmph! tick…tick…tick
July 8th, 2008 at 8:57 am
#84 Rich; Are these the same Wall St firms that frank said are hiring yesterday?
July 8th, 2008 at 8:57 am
Clot, your comment remind me of the Marshal McLuhan moment from Annie Hall.
July 8th, 2008 at 8:58 am
Frank,
Yes, you can buy a home at 2003 prices. Have you tried? Or are you only going by list price?
Show me data that homes are selling for top prices instead of your wishful opinion.
Prices have barely dropped.
When you take in inflation… oh wait, that’s right. You don’t understand inflation.
Whoa, you get calls from headhunters for financial sector jobs; see new hires walking the street and yet get the math on inflation wrong?
Is the hiring in janitorial services to assist in clearing out offices?
July 8th, 2008 at 9:00 am
3B (101),
I figured it out. If they’re a Wall Street firm, they’re hiring.
July 8th, 2008 at 9:00 am
FRANK:
Wanna buy my house? I’ll set a larded, what-*I*-think-it’s-worth, swing-from-the-heels, [no-metaphor-too-lazy-to-mix] price, but you should still have no problem flipping it for a healthy profit in Bergen Co.’s red-hot market.
Deal?
July 8th, 2008 at 9:02 am
99:
And I’m thinking “perpetually unemployable.”
July 8th, 2008 at 9:02 am
#98 NJpatient: frank and NNJ are realtors.
July 8th, 2008 at 9:06 am
OK, if a town listed 200 homes in 2006 and all homes sold for around 500K that is not the same as if the town listed 200 homes in 2008 and the listings expired on 100 homes and only the best 100, right street, right school, good condition etc and the average was 500K. If you look at sales price alone you might say no big thing. But if you have a flawed house, no basement, no garage, bad location, poor condition etc. you could have got some sucker in 2006 to give you your price as their were flippers and people who just wanted to get on property ladder and figured they stick the next person in three years with that dog at a 200K profit. Well that is dead. Good homes priced right sell. But people with crap homes or who need full price to pay off their huge mortgage, well they are screwed.
July 8th, 2008 at 9:06 am
#104 Rich: Cannot say too much, but I will be at meeting at Citi later today. Should I let them know that frank told me that Citi is hiring aggressively?
I could tell them to look at Merrill as they are hiring aggressively too.
After alll frank who does not work on the street, knows more than those that do.
July 8th, 2008 at 9:07 am
holy eff! based on the name of the town i’d be surprised if there’s even a wawa nearby.
http://philadelphia.craigslist.org/rfs/745891783.html
July 8th, 2008 at 9:07 am
Jamey (102)-
And, in housing, the medium is the message.
July 8th, 2008 at 9:07 am
I have been looking to buy a place in Hoboken for a reasonable price for 4 years now, since I have sold it in 2004, thinking it was the top. Show me a place in Hoboken for 2004 prices.
July 8th, 2008 at 9:08 am
3b (109)-
“Cannot say too much, but I will be at meeting at Citi later today.”
Don’t drink the water there. You may catch their disease.
July 8th, 2008 at 9:08 am
#109,
I don’t make the stuff up.
“GTS are hiring though.”
http://dealbreaker.com/2008/07/bonuslayoffs_watch_08_citi.php#comments
July 8th, 2008 at 9:09 am
#104 Rich: I think Wal-Mart’s broker dealer division is hiring
July 8th, 2008 at 9:11 am
“Merrill Lynch & Co. will write-down $5 billion for the second quarter”
That CAN’T be true!! bi and S&P said there would be no more writedowns!
July 8th, 2008 at 9:11 am
#114 frank: Did you actually read it? Or do you hsuffer from a rading comphrension problem?
July 8th, 2008 at 9:12 am
2nd (110)-
But I bet there are five places within a 10-minute drive of that house where you can buy all the guns and ammo you can stuff into your car.
July 8th, 2008 at 9:12 am
3b (117)-
Trollitis.
July 8th, 2008 at 9:14 am
Grim, any of your friends that got let go yesterday interested in a f/t gig doing jde/1 wrld? shoot me an email if so.
July 8th, 2008 at 9:15 am
Since when is something being “on fire” a good thing? House on fire? Car on fire? Yourself on fire?
Anyway, it appears that the job market continues to burn up.
N.J. drugmakers cut more than 1,100 jobs
New Jersey drugmakers have notified the state they plan to cut more than 1,100 jobs.
With sales of key products flagging, the biggest hits are from Schering-Plough, which plans to cut more than 500 jobs statewide, and Johnson & Johnson’s Ortho Biotech, which will shed 549 jobs in Bridgewater. In addition, Abbott Laboratories said it will trim 83 jobs in Parsippany.
July 8th, 2008 at 9:19 am
Frank,
I can’t speak to Hoboken as I have no data.
You can’t speak to ALL of New Jersey Real Estate as you have no data.
But it sounds as if you timed the market in Hoboken wrong, can’t admit that to yourself and want everyone (and yourself) to believe that New Jersey Real Estate is still “on fire”.
If you were reading here for a long time you would know of the theory that the market expands out from NYC and contracts back towards NYC. Looks as if you’re going to have to kick yourself and wait it out.
And post 114, weak.
July 8th, 2008 at 9:23 am
110. Actually familiar with that area. Nice but nowhere to work. Can you say Pottstown? Clot: ammo stores aplenty…
July 8th, 2008 at 9:25 am
clot, for sure!
July 8th, 2008 at 9:30 am
New Jersey Vulture Fund (NJVF) is hiring, but only if you have the ability to attract capital.
July 8th, 2008 at 9:32 am
grim (125)-
Is debt the same thing as capital?
Just asking.
July 8th, 2008 at 9:33 am
Of course, we’re practicing Orwellians.
July 8th, 2008 at 9:35 am
273719 JERSEY CITY 179 LINDEN AVE ,
JERSEY CITY , NJ 07305 HUDSON Duplex CARL MENIAM
201-217-1900
request info $164,900
182376 JERSEY CITY 46 FISK DRIVE ,
JERSEY CITY , NJ 07305 HUDSON Duplex CARL MENIAM
201-217-1900
request info $461,900
241299 JERSEY CITY 60 ASTOR PL ,
JERSEY CITY , NJ 07304 HUDSON Duplex CARL MENIAM
201-217-1900
request info $211,000
I can only find 2003 prices over by JC and Hoboken!
July 8th, 2008 at 9:41 am
“N.J. drugmakers cut more than 1,100 jobs”
N.J. drugmakers are still hiring, friends are getting jobs with sick pay and benefits, 5 minutes from their home.
Even more outrageous is the fact my illegal neighbors are getting jobs with top pay, no income taxes, just cash.
So weeeeeeeeeeee
July 8th, 2008 at 9:49 am
129
Sick pay as in how the kids use it? Man, that pay is sick!
Benefits? Free smokes?
I guess the corner is likely to be five minutes from their house.
Columbinas? Mexicans? Guatamalens? Of course they don’t pay taxes on G cash money.
Technically crack dealers are not drug makers, I believe they would fall into the distribution sector rather than manufacturing.
July 8th, 2008 at 9:51 am
Hold tight wait till the partys over
Hold tight were in for nasty weather
There has got to be a way
Burning down the house
…
No visible means of support and you have not seen nuthin yet
Everythings stuck together
I dont know what you expect starring into the tv set
Fighting fire with fire
July 8th, 2008 at 9:54 am
My local real estate market is confusing. Some units in good condition just don’t sell no matter what the asking price is. One unit in particular has been listed on and off since 2005 now. Other units of identical configuration list and sell quickly - but at widely divergent prices. 339k and 318k for two identical units in similar condition about two weeks apart. None of this makes any sense.
July 8th, 2008 at 9:55 am
[129] turn your neighbors in. That’s American.
July 8th, 2008 at 9:55 am
Yikes ! INDYMAC down 45%
July 8th, 2008 at 9:55 am
#129 Say good night frank.
July 8th, 2008 at 9:57 am
Welcome to $4 gas NJ.
AAA says NJ gasoline price exceeds $4 a gallon
AAA-New Jersey confirmed what most motorists already know: gasoline across the state is selling for more than $4 per gallon.
AAA announced today the Garden State had reached the milestone overnight.
July 8th, 2008 at 9:58 am
[92]
“He recommends avoiding the stock”
Ya think?
July 8th, 2008 at 9:58 am
from the weekend thread:
“In New Jersey, we have more such regulations than any state in the union. There are the Pinelands regs, the Highlands regs, the stream encroachment regs and so on.”
And, let us not forget the “other” regulation, which exists here in spades: the “how-much-do-I-need-to-pay-this-inspector-or-that-boqard-member-to-get-things-done-in-this-town regulation.” One runs the risk of not paying someone who requires it and not getting a project built or offering a payument to someone and then ending up in jail for atrtempting to bribe someone. If one can avoid this tightrope walk by building across the river, who can blame one for doing so.
July 8th, 2008 at 10:00 am
# 136 Rising prices is good, no? I thought that is what Congress is trying to do, keep prices high, at least for RE.
July 8th, 2008 at 10:00 am
Shore Guy #138,
With all this talk of going across the river, how is RE doing in the Lehigh Valley and the Poconos?
One would think it would be doing quite well. Is it?
July 8th, 2008 at 10:01 am
# 131 Grim,
Feeling a bit of nolstalga for CBGB are we?
July 8th, 2008 at 10:02 am
It was only a matter of time before Frank blamed the red hot job market on illegals.
July 8th, 2008 at 10:03 am
From Marketwatch
U.S. May pending home sales index down 4.7%: NAR
July 8th, 2008 at 10:03 am
Indymac is a screaming bargain, you get the stock for free when they pay their next dividend! (note: I’m being sarcastic, all disclaimers)
July 8th, 2008 at 10:05 am
From MarketWatch:
Pending home sales index down 4.7% in May: NAR
In a sign that the U.S. housing market may weaken further, an index of sales contracts on previously owned U.S. homes fell 4.7% in May from the prior month, the National Association of Realtors reported Tuesday. The index, which is considered a leading indicator of existing home sales, was down 14% from the May 2007 level. By region, May’s pending home sales index fell 7.1% in the South, 6% in the Midwest, 2.9% in the Northeast and 1.3% in the West. The April pending home sales index was revised to a gain of 7.1% from the prior estimate of a 6.3% increase.
July 8th, 2008 at 10:06 am
#136
But according to Greenspan, doesn’t paying more at the pump stimulate the economy? I remember him spewing some nonsense that rebuilding after the hurricanes in 05 was good for the economy becuase of the stimulus.
July 8th, 2008 at 10:06 am
From MarketWatch
Pending home sales index down 4.7% in May: NAR
In a sign that the U.S. housing market may weaken further, an index of sales contracts on previously owned U.S. homes fell 4.7% in May (except HOT NJ) from the prior month, the National Association of Realtors reported Tuesday. The index, which is considered a leading indicator of existing home sales, was down 14% from the May 2007 level. By region, May’s pending home sales index fell 7.1% in the South, 6% in the Midwest, 2.9% in the Northeast (must be those OTHER NE states) and 1.3% in the West. The April pending home sales index was revised to a gain of 7.1% from the prior estimate of a 6.3% increase.
July 8th, 2008 at 10:06 am
frank is the new duckie
July 8th, 2008 at 10:07 am
Frank’s not completely off-base. I’ve been scoping out condos in Hoboken and you still can’t get a good 2-bedroom condo in North Hoboken for under $700K (it’s a different story in other parts of town).
The more desirable parts of Hoboken have definitely held their value. Neighbors in our building sold a 1-bedroom apartment a couple of months ago for $150K more than they paid for it.
July 8th, 2008 at 10:11 am
[92]
I love how they disclose that they aren’t “well capitalized.” That is like saying the guy with the sucking chest wound “isn’t feeling well.”
This suggests that they are “critically undercapitalized” which is the lowest possible level. At that level, the regulators can order just about anything. Also, if they stopped payment on subordinated debt, that is one indication since sub debt payments must stop once the bank becomes crit undercapped.
I realize that this info, while educational, is kind of useless. Once you see the Titanic go vertical, you don’t need to be told it is sinking.
July 8th, 2008 at 10:13 am
The sequel to #131:
This used to be real estate
Now it’s only fields and trees
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lOEIRI5HSuQ
July 8th, 2008 at 10:15 am
#149 hobocondo: Give it time, Wall St layoffs will take care of the more desireable areas in Hoboken too.
July 8th, 2008 at 10:18 am
#151 - nice choice
July 8th, 2008 at 10:22 am
From Bloomberg:
Pending U.S. Home Resales Drop 4.7% in May, More Than Forecast
Americans signed fewer contracts to buy previously owned homes in May for a third month in four, a sign house prices have yet to touch bottom.
The index of pending home resales fell 4.7 percent, a bigger decline than forecast, after a revised 7.1 percent gain in April, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington.
Would-be buyers are holding off purchases as they expect further price declines, and as rising mortgage rates and tougher lending standards make it harder to qualify for loans. Record delinquencies on home loans have led to concerns that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two biggest U.S. mortgage finance companies, may need to increase their capital by $75 billion.
“After a healthy bounce in April, the housing market appears to have lost steam again in May and June,” said Mike Larson, a housing analyst at Weiss Research in Jupiter, Florida. “Unless and until the economic clouds part, we’ll likely see the housing market continue to struggle.”
Economists had projected the index would fall 3 percent, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 38 economists. Estimates ranged from a drop of 6 percent to a 0.2 percent gain.
Pending resales were down 14 percent from May 2007, today’s report showed.
July 8th, 2008 at 10:26 am
[147]
NAR predicts that housing will rise 4.3% in 2009… time to buy a house ASAP!
July 8th, 2008 at 10:27 am
MAD MONEY BOND OF THE DAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!
NAT CITY PREF CAP TR BOND 12.00000% 12/31/2049
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July 8th, 2008 at 10:28 am
#98
either a realtor or gov’t employee
July 8th, 2008 at 10:29 am
Mike,
http://njrereport.com/index.php/2008/04/09/tracking-realtor-spin/
July 8th, 2008 at 10:30 am
One apartment we saw (non-waterfront) was going for $685K (2 bedrooms, about 1100 sf). New construction, but ridiculous asking price given its location and size. They did drop the price by $40K, and I stopped following the process, but the asking price was so way off base…
July 8th, 2008 at 10:31 am
140 The difference is that the earlier discussion had to do with industrial and commercial RE, not residential. The LV was sold to suckers as a bedroom community of Nassau County; and in an area that, apparently, had no building codes, so the homes are falling apart.
The concerns about losing industrial facilities to less corrupt and less regulated environs is real and is important, regardless of what happens with residential RE markets in the respective areas.
July 8th, 2008 at 10:34 am
A few weeks ago, I came and asked for some recommendations on places to live that were not Westfield, but affordable, and commutable to Newark.
Unfortunately, nothing panned out, and we put a deposit down on a place in Bucks County. Longer commute, but quality of life should go up dramatically in spite of that.
Fitting given yesterday’s title article.
July 8th, 2008 at 10:34 am
“Give it time, Wall St layoffs will take care of the more desireable areas in Hoboken too.”
3b,
I have been waiting since 1999 for a price drops in Hoboken, so far only up and up. Looks like I will be waiting until I retire.
July 8th, 2008 at 10:37 am
# 92 “IndyMac Bancorp said that regulators have told the lender it isn’t “well capitalized” after failing to raise new capital, a move that raises tough questions about the troubled company’s viability. ”
But didn’t the folks running the place put their assets into CDs? Good stable ones too, good for the long haul: Beatles, Stones, Springsteen, Mozart, B.B. King, Zep, etc.
July 8th, 2008 at 10:38 am
month over month decline May vs April sales seems kind of brutal. Don’t want to make too much of one month’s data, but I wonder how often there has been a decline between these two months historically (instead of a rise). My impression was that seasonal sales activity peaked in June/July, rising pretty steadily from Feb.
July 8th, 2008 at 10:43 am
This JUST has to hurt:
“Paul Miller, a Friedman, Billings, Ramsey analyst, cut his price target for Pasadena, California-based IndyMac to zero per share from $1.00.”
Seems like the perfect time for the “essential” execs to seek big bonuses.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/25581047
July 8th, 2008 at 10:45 am
Hoboken will drop in 2009/2010. Most of Wall Street did pretty good bonus wise in Jan 2008. But it will be brutal in Jan 2009 and Jan 2010. Layoffs, low raises and very little bonus. That combined with the huge amount of new coops/condos being completed on wall street in the next two years will kill hoboken. If I can live in on wall Street for $600 a square foot why would I live in Hoboken? Just come downtown and work around and check out all the spec buildings going up. Too late to stop construction, these things are going to flood the market next year.
July 8th, 2008 at 10:45 am
#162 franl Well you are foolish, real estate was fairly valued in 1999;you should have bought at that time.
July 8th, 2008 at 10:50 am
# 162
Hoboken was such a pit for so long, I can see why one might be tempted to look for declines there. I suspect, though, that as long as the City stays healthy — and by this I mean low crime, clean, good place to spend a day, as opposed to the Abe Bean years — places like Hoboken will do pretty well. If not low level Wall Street types looking for an easy commute, then aging Boomers looking for a place that allows them to do the entertainment, cultural, and dining aspects of the City while not living there. Besides, the views are better from Jersey, and it is a shorter drive, or train ride to nice beaches in Jersey than out on the Island. Even aging Boomers like to walk along the beach holding hands now and then.
July 8th, 2008 at 10:51 am
# 166 It sounds like Miami.
July 8th, 2008 at 10:53 am
Does anyone have information on this house?
MLS ID# 2741389
Hackensack St, Wood Ridge
I’ve lived in this town for over 3 years now (renting) and this thing has been for sale since we arrived! They’re asking $619K for it - which explains why it’s still for sale - but I’m wondering what the original asking price was. Terrible location on a busy street and absolutely no land. I wouldn’t pay more than $300K for this thing.
July 8th, 2008 at 10:53 am
mls#2047788
7 Drumlin Ln, Laurel Hollow, NY
-12.5% change from first recorded price
Asking Price $3.5M as of 07/02/2008
Asking Price $4M as of 02/14/2008
I love it when I see some “man sized” price cuts on non short sale or distressed properties. Just shows buyers are finally getting it. 500K+ to me is a nice “man sized” cut.
July 8th, 2008 at 10:57 am
Hoboken is a living hell. Reminds me of Harlem, Long Island City, Astoria, Woodside, Staten Island etc. Whenever Manhattan (86 street to wall street) prices get sky high these nearby hell holes shoot up in price only to get crushed when Manhattan prices fall a bit. The carrnage will be horrific in Hoboken. In three years it will be crack central.
July 8th, 2008 at 10:57 am
#168 shore Well Wall St has to be in a hiring mode, and they are not. And aging Booomers have to be ablr toi sell their SFH’s to younger people in order to do the city living thing.
The problem of course is the Wall st engine job is gone, which affects other professions in NYC, and NJ is losing tis high paying jobs.
Couple that with a recession, (or a national economic slow down if you prefer), much tighet credit, and stagnant wages for the people who are still employed, and want to buy a house, and prices have to fall;both for the aging boomers POS cape, and for the apartment he ro she wants to buy in Hoboken.
It really is that simple.
July 8th, 2008 at 10:58 am
#108
“OK, if a town listed 200 homes in 2006 and all homes sold for around 500K that is not the same as if the town listed 200 homes in 2008″
yes, now it’s as if E500s are going for the same price as E350s. technically the same model is going for the same price, but the particulars are quite diff’t
July 8th, 2008 at 10:58 am
Frank, are you caterwauling about Hoboken again? That town is somewhere around 80% rentals and Mob owned, why would you want to buy an 1100 sq ft concrete and steel box for 700k? So what you and the rest of the yuppies can have a dog walking competition, and not talk to each other while you try and out fart each other in the elevator?
Right now Hoboken is simply a birthing nest for the yuppies, once all those kids hit 5 yrs old it will be off to Ridgewood, Summit or Brigadoon.
July 8th, 2008 at 11:00 am
#167,
I did buy it in 1999 then sold it in 2004, I am looking for 2003 prices to come back, looks like I will be waiting for a long time.
July 8th, 2008 at 11:01 am
#175,
Who cares who lives there, as long as they pay rent on time unlike in Newark.
July 8th, 2008 at 11:01 am
#166 John: lots of spec building in Lower Manhattan.
20 Pine Treet
15 Broad St
25 Brosd St
65 Wall St
75 Wall St
Various locations on John Street, and on and on. Almost all of these that I have mentioned have not even come on line yet.
Oh and I forgot all the lcoations on William St, the old insurance alley.
July 8th, 2008 at 11:02 am
frank-
why do you want to move to hoboken again?
July 8th, 2008 at 11:05 am
“why do you want to move to hoboken again?”
1. Because I hate my commute.
2. I want to buy a cash-flow positive rental
July 8th, 2008 at 11:06 am
Grim/anyone who knows
I’m looking for info regarding a recent sale on Peublo Dr in Franklin lakes. Sale should have closed recently as new owners are moving in on Friday. wondering if it was more than 2 million…info not yet on any sales sites..this couple is buying this mega house before they put their other house up for sale because selling it while they still lived there would be too much of a “hassle”. That’s some good $$$ talking there.
July 8th, 2008 at 11:07 am
Re #181..did I mention that this couple is still in their late 20’s/early 30’s..
July 8th, 2008 at 11:08 am
#176 frank: I bet you you could find 2003 prices now in Hoboken.
After all who will be moving there, all those people being hired on Wall St?
July 8th, 2008 at 11:11 am
150 Nom
“Once you see the Titanic go vertical, you don’t need to be told it is sinking.”
Maybe, but Frank would point out that a the prow of the boat is higher than it’s ever been before.
July 8th, 2008 at 11:12 am
#183,
Stop all this blogging and show me a Hoboken property at 2003 prices. Come on, it should be easy, prices are down so much.
July 8th, 2008 at 11:15 am
I’m not sure about living in downtown Manhattan. A friend of mine moved down there after 9/11 and has been suffering from bronchial problems ever since. She’s on Fulton St.
July 8th, 2008 at 11:16 am
Hoboken is becoming a trap for many young couples. Many people who bought one or two bedrooms there during the ‘03 to ‘06 boom years now have children. They thought the two bedroom they bought would be big enough but now its apparent that they need much more space, not to mention a place to send their kids to school. With prices in many buildings off of the peak levels, they can no longer afford to sell and move to the ‘burbs where $700k at least gets you 3 bedrooms a basement for storing huge amounts of kids toys and a backyard. They are stuck and the kids are getting bigger.
July 8th, 2008 at 11:17 am
162 frank
“I have been waiting since 1999 for a price drops in Hoboken”
Hmm. So you thought they would drop then and won’t drop now. Your foolishness is consistent. That’s why folks pay you little mind.
(Apologies to R.W. Emerson.)
You’re a better black box inversion than bi!
July 8th, 2008 at 11:18 am
[184] NJP,
LOL! And he would be right (for a minute or so)
Still, even a busted clock is accurate 2x a day. Prices in Brigadoon are still remaining stubbornly high because there are still buyers willing to pay for it. So Frank may be right w/r/t some places, even as the rest of Jersey sinks around him.
July 8th, 2008 at 11:19 am
172 john
“Hoboken is a living hell. Reminds me of Harlem, Long Island City, Astoria, Woodside, Staten Island etc. Whenever Manhattan (86 street to wall street) prices get sky high these nearby hell holes shoot up in price only to get crushed when Manhattan prices fall a bit. The carrnage will be horrific in Hoboken. In three years it will be crack central.”
Agree.
July 8th, 2008 at 11:21 am
The thing with Hoboken is that we are getting a lot of people come in from Manhattan who are used to high prices and smaller spaces. My building is full of Manhattan transplants who want more for their money.
The other thing is that while Wall Street may be suffering, there are lots of people in Hoboken who don’t work on Wall Street - physicians, lawyers, professors. I know in my building, there are a decent proportion of people who have bought their condos with cash.
July 8th, 2008 at 11:21 am
177 frank
“Who cares who lives there, as long as they pay rent on time unlike in Newark.”
I think that confirms what we already knew: you’re a RE agent who started buying properties. Kind of like the pusher who starts snorting his product.
In a couple of years, you’ll be huffing paint.
July 8th, 2008 at 11:22 am
[165] Shore guy,
Maybe not. Once a bank is deemed significantly or critically undercapped by the feds, they can restrict exec comp. Mozilo got out just in time. If the feds had come in sooner and deemed the bank to be undercapitalized, they could have lowered the hammer on him. This is one reason you see bank execs head for the exits WTSHTF.
July 8th, 2008 at 11:22 am
re: cash-flow positive rentals in Hoboken. Frank lets get realistic here, you are trying high dive into the pool but the problem is the pool is now full of concrete. Pick another market and stop caterwauling Hoboken has only 19k units and most properties are developed and owned by the corporations or the mobsters.
TOTAL OCCUPIED UNITS
19,418
Owner-occupied 4,396 22.6%
Renter-occupied 15,022 77.4%
July 8th, 2008 at 11:25 am
#187 r - I don’t know anyone in the position you are talking about and I know a lot of people in Hoboken with kids. Hoboken is MORE expensive than what you can get in the suburbs. Not only that, but a lot of people are choosing to live in Hoboken.
Know how many times it has come up in discussion that we are thrilled it costs us less than $20 to commute to work on the Path when our suburban friends have to fill up their gas tanks 2x week at $75 each time?
July 8th, 2008 at 11:32 am
Laurie,
SOLD: 860 PUEBLO DR $2,495,000 10/8/2004
Orig List: $3,799,000 5/30/2006
Last List: $2,999,000 12/18/2007
SOLD: $2,685,000 6/13/2008
July 8th, 2008 at 11:32 am
Hobocondo, little Braden or Madison will not fare well in the Hoboken, as soon as they come home and start flashing gang signs mommy will freak out and buy a POS cape in Bergenfield.
July 8th, 2008 at 11:33 am
“I think that confirms what we already knew: you’re a RE agent”
no even close, I am not an RE agent.
Show me a cash-flow positive condo in any other NJ town where the renters will leave the appliances after they move out.
July 8th, 2008 at 11:36 am
HoboCondo (195),
Your opinion seems biased. Do you have any data (I know Frank wants some) of Hoboken sales other than anecdotal comments?
July 8th, 2008 at 11:39 am
#197 Sean: and they will still be flashing those gang signs in Bergenfield.
July 8th, 2008 at 11:39 am
189 Nom
“Prices in Brigadoon are still remaining stubbornly high”
True, still grossly overpriced, though by my non-scientific observation, ~10% lower asking prices than in early 2007.
July 8th, 2008 at 11:39 am
SS,
139 HACKENSACK ST
Listed 3 times with 3 different brokers/agents
Orig. List: $725,000 4/6/2006
Last List: $619,000 5/5/2008
July 8th, 2008 at 11:40 am
#195 what?
“a lot of people are choosing to live in Hoboken.”
virtually everyone not living in the projects chooses where they live. I believe r was saying that people who bought between 03-06 are now upside down and are unable to sell without a significant loss, hence they can not move.
July 8th, 2008 at 11:42 am
198 frank
Then what do you do?
“Show me a cash-flow positive condo in any other NJ town where the renters will leave the appliances after they move out.”
Gee - I left the appliances in my rental when I moved out, but then again there are no condos out by me, which is one of the reasons I live where I do.
July 8th, 2008 at 11:43 am
172:
Minus the race-baiting, John is totally spot-on about Mile-Square. Rising NYC rents drove me there; Hoboken’s inherent Hoboken-ness is what drove me back two years later.
Shore: Speaking from experience, being NEAR the attractions of NYC, but separated by the River Hudson, is like dying a few steps short of an oasis. The only topic left to debate is whether that’s comedy or tragedy.
July 8th, 2008 at 11:43 am
Bernanke is one upping Congress before they take action.
Fed to Clamp Down on Exotic and Subprime Loans
By STEPHEN LABATON
Published: July 9, 2008
WASHINGTON — With no end in sight to the turbulence in the housing and financial markets, the chairman of the Federal Reserve said on Tuesday morning that it would issue new lending rules next week to restrict exotic mortgages and high-cost loans for people with weak credit.
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Related
Text of Bernanke Speech
The chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, also said that the Fed was considering extending its program of low-cost overnight loans to the nation’s largest investment banks into next year. The lending program, which is supposed to be temporary, began in March in response to liquidity problems on Wall Street during the near-collapse of Bear Stearns, which was sold to JPMorgan Chase to avert going into bankruptcy.
At a forum in Arlington, Va., on lending for low- and moderate-income households, Mr. Bernanke said Bear Stearns’s difficulties had highlighted weaknesses in the financial system that policy makers were trying to address. He said they included poorly underwritten mortgages, regulatory gaps, tight credit and insufficiently capitalized financial institutions.
“The financial turmoil is ongoing, and our efforts today are concentrated on helping the financial system return to more normal functioning,” Mr. Bernanke said, according to an advance text of his speech issued by the Fed. “It is not too soon, however, to begin to think about the steps we might take to reduce the incidence and severity of future crises.”
Mr. Bernanke’s remarks appeared to have a reassuring effect on the markets, a day after shares of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the mortgage financing giants, plunged amid renewed concerns that the worst of the mortgage c