Wed 9 Jul 2008
From the Star Ledger:
Housing slump seen stretching further
Signs are emerging the U.S. housing market’s long slump is likely to fester through the summer, and the real estate market may not recover for at least another year.
The latest report, the National Association of Realtors’ pending home sales index, slipped 4.7 percent in May to the third-lowest reading on record. The decline “suggests we are not out of the woods by any means,” said the trade group’s chief economist Lawrence Yun.
From the Boston Globe:
In May, property resales slid once again
Contracts to buy previously owned US homes declined more than forecast in May, a sign prices that have been sliding for more than two years have yet to touch bottom.
The index of pending home resales fell 4.7 percent following a revised 7.1 percent gain in April that was greater than previously reported, the National Association of Realtors said yesterday.
The prospect of further price declines may be discouraging offers, while rising mortgage rates and tougher lending standards make it harder to qualify for loans. The Federal Reserve reported non-real-estate consumer borrowing increased more than forecast in May, as Americans turned to credit cards after banks restricted access to home-equity lines of credit.
“Homes are much more affordable, but they’ll probably be even more affordable in six months’ to 12 months’ time, so it makes people reluctant to jump in,” Nigel Gault, chief US economist at Global Insight Inc. in Lexington, Mass., said. “The message is that last month’s big rise was not the signal that the market is starting to turn around. We’ve had a big correction this month.”
Economists had projected the pending sales index would fall 3 percent, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 38 economists. Estimates ranged from a drop of 6 percent to a 0.2 percent gain.
Pending resales were down 14 percent from May 2007, yesterday’s report showed.
July 9th, 2008 at 6:08 am
From the Journal News:
Rockland home prices sink 10 percent
You needn’t tell Paul Meda that the housing market in Rockland County has slowed to nearly a crawl in recent years. He knows firsthand.
That’s because Meda and his wife, Maria, have been trying to sell their four-bedroom, 2 1/2 bath bilevel for about two years.
“We’ve actually had offers on it,” said Paul Meda, a retired police officer who now works in South Plainfield, N.J., managing commercial construction projects.
But the offers, often made by novice home buyers who think it’s still possible to get a loan for 100 percent of the purchase price, have fallen through, he said.
Having initially listed their 1,900-square-foot Inland Road home for $469,900, the couple have since lowered the price to $411,900, a $58,000 reduction.
…
Data released yesterday showed that many Rockland homeowners are waiting longer to sell their homes and getting less than they hoped for them.
The median price for a single-family home fell 10.2 percent to $453,500 in the second quarter - typically the busiest of the year, down from $505,000 a year ago, according to data compiled by the Greater Hudson Valley Multiple Listing Service.
During the three months ending June 30, transactions fell nearly 29 percent to 280, from 393 in the quarter last year, and the inventory of unsold homes rose to 1,513 from 1,453, the MLS reported. The length of time it took to sell the average home crept beyond 100 days to 103, from 98 in the quarter last year.
For the first time in recent history, the inventory of unsold homes in Rockland surpassed one year, according to an analysis by The Journal News. Given the current number of unsold homes and rate of sales, it would take 16.2 months to clear the county’s inventory.
July 9th, 2008 at 6:09 am
From Bloomberg:
It’s All Over But the Dating for U.S. Recession: Caroline Baum
The U.S. economy has been leaking jobs for six straight months, seven if you exclude government hiring.
Granted, it’s been a slow leak in terms of the length of time and the magnitude of the losses (an average of 73,000 jobs a month), but there’s nothing to suggest an imminent about-face in the labor-market trend.
Initial jobless claims breached the 400,000 mark last week, a level consistent with the onset of past recessions. The Conference Board’s Employment Trends Index, an aggregate of eight leading labor market indicators, continued its yearlong descent in June, pointing “to an even sharper deterioration in the labor market in the months ahead,” according to the Conference Board.
Taken in conjunction with the decline to 43.8 in the Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing employment index, the lowest in its 11-year history, it’s hard to be optimistic about employment prospects.
“Labor demand is shrinking, with both the help-wanted index and the net hiring of temporary workers hitting new lows in recent months,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at High Frequency Economics in Valhalla, New York.
Shepherdson thinks it’s only a matter of time until the payroll numbers catch up with labor-market reality.
…
Real GDP rose 0.6 percent in the fourth quarter and 1 percent in the first. The meager fourth-quarter increase could turn to mush as early as July 31, when the Bureau of Economic Analysis releases its annual benchmark revisions to the National Income and Product Accounts for the last three years.
A decline in GDP in the fourth quarter wouldn’t be the depth charge the BCDC needs to designate an official cycle peak. That comes with a long lag, sometimes after the recession has ended.
It would just be a confirmation for those of us who, to paraphrase economist Robert Solow, see a recession everywhere except in the GDP data.
July 9th, 2008 at 6:27 am
From the Baltimore Sun:
Fed expects financial turmoil into late ‘09
Federal policymakers have concluded that the turmoil afflicting the housing and financial markets is likely to spill deep into 2009, becoming one of the most significant domestic problems to confront the next president when he steps into the Oval Office in January.
Ben S. Bernanke, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, publicly indicated yesterday that he believes the problems will persist into next year when he outlined a series of steps the Fed is considering in the coming months.
…
Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. said in a speech last week in London that the problems affecting the housing and financial markets might last longer than originally expected.
He followed up in another speech yesterday by saying that the Bush administration was working to prevent as many home foreclosures as possible but that “many of today’s unusually high number of foreclosures are not preventable.” Paulson said 1.5 million home foreclosures were started in 2007 and that an estimated 2.5 million more would take place this year.
July 9th, 2008 at 6:28 am
From the Morning Call:
Rendell signs off on mortgage fraud bills
Gov. Ed Rendell came to the newest epicenter of the mortgage crisis in Pennsylvania on Tuesday to sign a package of bills that will make mortgage fraud tougher to get away with in the state.
Rendell signed the bills at the Exeter Township library, not far from where now-jailed mortgage broker Wesley A. Snyder did business until his companies collapsed in fraud and bankruptcy last year.
While the new laws bode well for the future, Rendell acknowledged the pain the mortgage meltdown has brought across the state. ”We still are in the focus of this crisis,” he said.
The governor said 66,000 Pennsylvania families have adjustable-rate subprime loans — among the riskiest loan products offered during the real estate bubble that popped in 2007 — with more than 20 percent delinquent.
The new laws, he said, can’t help homeowners already in trouble. He directed them to programs run by the state Housing Finance Agency for help.
July 9th, 2008 at 6:34 am
From the Star Ledger:
Pharma’s exodus begins
With sales flagging and cost-cutting at a premium, pharmaceutical companies have notified New Jersey of plans to trim or relocate more than 800 jobs in the coming months.
The biggest hit is from Schering-Plough, which plans to cut at least 500 jobs statewide as part of a previously announced reduction of 5,500 positions worldwide, according to spokesman Stephen Galpin. This is the first time the Kenilworth drugmaker, which has been hurt by declining sales of its cholesterol drug franchise, has given a number for layoffs in the Garden State.
“The greatest impact is in New Jersey,” Galpin said, adding there likely will be additional cuts in the state.
…
Johnson & Johnson is merging its Ortho Biotech unit with another subsidiary, Centocor, and shifting 260 jobs in Bridgewater to Centocor’s headquarters in Horsham, Pa., according to a spokesman Chris Molineaux. The company had previously disclosed the consolidation, but not the exact number of jobs exiting the state.
…
Abbott Laboratories, meanwhile, filed a notice it was closing its Parsippany drug development campus and shifting the 83 job slots there back to its research headquarters in Abbott Park, Ill. The move is expected to wrap up by Aug. 29.
July 9th, 2008 at 6:35 am
grim,
are you going to change your handle to peachy or something like that when the market turns?
July 9th, 2008 at 6:46 am
And I was so sure that this RE downturn would only last a year.
July 9th, 2008 at 6:48 am
I missed this on Monday
From The Record
PSE and — gee, another rate hike
Public Service Electric and Gas Co. filed a request with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission today to raise electric transmission rates.
If approved, the average residential electric customer would pay an extra $5.50 a year.
The request is to cover what the Newark-based utility says has been a “significant additional investment” in the utility’s electric transmission system.
The state’s largest utility, with more than 2 million customers, got its last transmission rate increase in 1997, but the company received a 12.1 percent rate increase on June 1 to cover higher commodity costs.
[Emphasis Added]
July 9th, 2008 at 6:51 am
Tom (6),
The answer to your question is here.</
July 9th, 2008 at 6:54 am
NJP,
Five, maybe six hours sleep for the past 3 months now?
At this point I’d be impossible to be around!
I’d be crankier than RE101.
July 9th, 2008 at 6:54 am
“U.S. housing market’s long slump is likely to fester through the summer, and the real estate market may not recover for at least another year”
ha ha, tell us something we don’t know!
I think the RE bust has alot longer to fall.
is the genral public that dumb?
July 9th, 2008 at 7:11 am
SAS 11 Yes.
July 9th, 2008 at 7:11 am
Ah.. garbage pail kids. Now if only someone can just throw on a red pleather thriller jacket and recite some Mommy Mommy jokes my 80’s flashback can be complete.
July 9th, 2008 at 7:14 am
njpatient,
“And I was so sure that this RE downturn would only last a year.”
It has. In fact it was shorter than that. If you payed attention to the real news about the RE market you would have known we hit the bottom almost every month.
Every month we just have a new downturn.
July 9th, 2008 at 7:14 am
http://newmls.gsmls.com/public/show_public_report_rpt.do?report=clientfull&Id=34222519_11260
Check out 1895 Vic reduced in this link & we have a long way to go!
July 9th, 2008 at 7:23 am
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=92328873
McCain/Obama housing stuff
July 9th, 2008 at 7:28 am
15
has it all but trees anywhere near the house for it’s age…
July 9th, 2008 at 7:39 am
RP 16 Just an idea on the market. It is on a busy street for Vernon no place for kids all by itself. It is however a real nice house if you don’t have children. Busy for Vernon would not bother most BC buyers.You plant those fast growing trees. Would be better with a few couple of 100 yr old trees I know.
July 9th, 2008 at 7:41 am
http://i210.photobucket.com/albums/bb204/count_smokula/Garbage%20Pail%20Kids/1340343035.jpg
July 9th, 2008 at 7:55 am
2 grim
“Initial jobless claims breached the 400,000 mark last week, a level consistent with the onset of past recessions.”
That CAN’T be true!! All the illegal immigrants in Frank’s ghetto have jobs!!
July 9th, 2008 at 7:58 am
““Labor demand is shrinking, with both the help-wanted index and the net hiring of temporary workers hitting new lows in recent months,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at High Frequency Economics in Valhalla, New York.”
The illegal immigrants in the ghetto where Frank lives are better qualified - they don’t need those temporary jobs.
July 9th, 2008 at 8:01 am
6 Tom
“are you going to change your handle to peachy or something like that when the market turns?”
Per Roubini on squawk, that won’t be soon. “Protracted recession”, says the Roubinator - park your money in TIPS
July 9th, 2008 at 8:02 am
17 I mean if this house is that old there should be old growth trees around it.
Like the house I am going to visit today with my friends and their new baby ( I and giving money, I claim the clueless no-kids male clause ) It’s 1/2 that age and it has old trees around.
Big trees stop the wind from robbing the heat from your house.
BTW, friend closing up state next week, 80K for a 3 bedroom. Friends closed last month Houston Tx 2 engineer couple from NJ. 120K for a 500K house up here. Both houses 1x income. My dinky studio 400 sq ft apartment 1x income in NJ.
NJ YOUR DOING IT WRONG!
July 9th, 2008 at 8:06 am
12 mike
“SAS 11 Yes.”
That was definitely another episode of Easy Answers To Easy Questions.
July 9th, 2008 at 8:07 am
Peachy? No. Buttercup maybe.
July 9th, 2008 at 8:16 am
How about Ducky?
July 9th, 2008 at 8:21 am
Ultimate comp killer, 50% off from 2006 prices.
Scotch Plains Twp, NJ 07076 MLS ID# 2546228
http://www.realtor.com/search/listingdetail.aspx?zp=07076&typ=7&pg=1&lid=1101150653&lsn=1&srcnt=164#Detail
July 9th, 2008 at 8:21 am
The decline “suggests we are not out of the woods by any means,” said the trade group’s chief economist Lawrence Yun.
Can someone put Mr. Yun back to bed?
“Peachy? No. Buttercup maybe.”
How about Sunshine?
July 9th, 2008 at 8:26 am
Frank (26),
Wouldn’t 50% off 2006 peak pricing put that below 2003 pricing?
July 9th, 2008 at 8:32 am
I lived in Astoria for four years myself. I hated having to switch at 59 street in rush hour to the four train or sit on the slow poke N that took forever to get downtown. I hated that it was a pain to go out drinking at night in NYC as you had two trains to deal with. I hated watching the rikers island bus with prisioner wifes driving by. I hated the parking was terrible and their was no paid parking lots. I hated the 40ish looking greek women in black pushing three babies who were actualy 23 years old. I hated sons who kissed their mothers on the lips goodbye in the morning. I hated the crazy amount of smokers and all the little stupid ethnic stores where one sold fish the next milk the next break the next coffer. Take you all day to buy groceries. I hated the landlady who would fire up her stove and all her top burners to make a hot lunch and dinner that took three hours to cook on 100 degree days. I hated her also on zero degree days as the thermosat was on the first floor so her cooking cut off my heat and I froze. I hated the fact the super or landlord could not speak english when i needed something fixed but if I blocked the driveway or something they spoke perfect english. I hated all my neighbors sat out on their ten foot of front lawn all day and left the 40 foot backyard empty. I hated when I told a girl in a bar I lived in Astoria it felt like admiting I hate gental herpes.
alia Says:
July 8th, 2008 at 8:41 pm
172: john, may i ask what criteria you use to deem astoria a hellhole? (i think it’s one of the best neighborhoods i’ve lived in.)
July 9th, 2008 at 8:37 am
Hey patrick the heck with houston in east hampton most houses sell for around 10% of yearly income!!! Granted when you make 50 million a year you can still get a decent home for five million.
Also Houston has some new downtown apts hitting the market with 7k a month taxes. The other thing about Houston in RE taxes are insane. 7K taxes is nutso when people make 30K a year.
July 9th, 2008 at 8:39 am
The decline “suggests we are not out of the woods by any means,” said the trade group’s chief economist Lawrence Yun.
I guess he means we are at that stage where the hillbilly says to white water rafter “boy you got purty lips”
July 9th, 2008 at 8:41 am
#28,
I don’t know what the selling price was before 2006, but if I see more of these properties listed at such levels, I will switch to your camp.
July 9th, 2008 at 8:45 am
“I will switch to your camp.”
Frank[32],
Just let me know. I may need to buy an extra pair of boots, at that time.
July 9th, 2008 at 8:47 am
Does anyone have the address/history on this property? If I remember, this was a short sale a year or so ago. Wonder why it is back on the market so quick if it is the same one:
MLS Number: 2545638
July 9th, 2008 at 8:57 am
Chapter 4 - A Wall of Money - “The Trillion Dollar Meltdown” - Charles R. Morris - My favorite chapter so far in my reading.
Pg. 61 “When money is free, and lending is costless and riskless, the national lender will keep on lending until there is no one else to lend to.”
Pg. 63 “Even more controversial is Greenspan’s resolute insistence on focusing only on consumer price inflation, while ignoring signs of rampant inflation in the price of assets, especially houses and bonds of all kinds. Academics can adduce technical reasons why central banks should not concern themselves with asset prices. But common sense demands some intervention when prices of a major asset class are soaring beyond all reason.”
They go on to discuss “the Greenspan put”: No matter what goes wrong, the Fed will rescue you by creating enough cheap money to buy you out of your troubles.”
Pg. 67 “The 2000s real estate bubble may be one of those rare beasts conjured into the world solely by financiers,(not demographics as usual) which is confirmed by the fact that housing bubbles also occured in the United Kingdom, Australia, Spain and other countries where residential lending became unusually loose.”
“Refis jumped from $14 billion in 1995 to nearly a quarter-trillion in 2005, the greatest majority of them resulting in higher loan amounts.”
Pg. 69 “By 2003 or so, mortgage lenders were running out of people they could plausibly lend to. Instead of curtailing lending, they spread their nets to vacuum up prospects with little hope of repaying their loans. Subprime lending jumped from an annual volume of $145 billion in 2001 to $625 billion in 2005, more than 20 percent of total issuances. More than a third of subprime loans were for 100 percent of the home value - even more when the fees were added in”
“The industry’s underbelly became viciously predatory.”
This about says it all…..
Pg. 71 “There has never been a starker demonstration of the Agency problem -if loan originators have no stake in a borrower’s continued solvency, the competition for fees will inevitably degrade the average quality of loans.”
Still reading…but…Pg. 72 “As the subprime crisis developed through the spring and summer of 2007, the unanimous response of the wise men of finance was that it was containable……” It is not. What makes it so important, and so devastating, is not the absolute size, but the way lower-quality mortgages have marbled their way through the entire world’s credit system-and they are just one of several big, and very shaky asset classes to have done so.”
Next comes “The Great Game of Risk Transfer.” Oh boy….
July 9th, 2008 at 8:59 am
I thought this was interesting:
“3,200++ Martial Arts Studios went out of business in the month of May alone. In the history of Martial Arts in the United States - nothing like this has ever happened. In one month about 20% of all studios closed their door. Most will never reopen! Most should never been in business to start with.”
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/07/3200-martial-arts-studios-went-out-of.html
July 9th, 2008 at 9:02 am
#28 Rich; I think there are 2 framks.
July 9th, 2008 at 9:06 am
#28 Rich; I think there are 2 framks.
3b [37],
It depends if the interleague game is played at the National or American League team. Some days the pitchers hit, others the DH. Frank is not sure which league he is in.
July 9th, 2008 at 9:09 am
All this talk of franks makes me think you two have gotten more balls across the nose than a major league catcher.
July 9th, 2008 at 9:10 am
Cindy,
Interesting reading. I’m glad you’re doing it for me and just posting the nuggets!
3B,
I’m easily fooled. When Bob made his entrance I thought he was… ah, let’s not go there.
But it WAS a spectacular entrance.
July 9th, 2008 at 9:10 am
MBA’s purchase index rose 6.7 percent to 365.8 in the July 4 week. The refinance index rose 8.7 percent to 1,379.3. The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage rose 10 basis points to 6.43 percent.
July 9th, 2008 at 9:11 am
Covered Bonds are debt securities backed by cashflows from mortgages or public sector loans. They are similar in many ways to asset-backed securities created in securitization but covered bond assets remain on the issuer’s consolidated balance sheet. Essentially, a Covered Bond is a corporate bond with one important enhancement: recourse to a pool of assets that secures or “covers” the bond if the originator (usually a financial institution) becomes insolvent. This enhancement typically (although not always) results in the bonds being assigned AAA credit ratings.Common in Germany for many years where they are known as Pfandbriefe and can be traced back to 1769.
Excerpt from Dow Jones’ “Paulson Touts Covered Bonds As Way to Boost Homebuying” :
“Covered bonds, which are widely used in Europe, are a mortgage-backed security that usually provides funding to commercial banks through a secured debt instrument collaterized by a pool of residential mortgage loans that remain on the issuer’s balance sheet. Interest is paid to investors from the issuer’s cash flow.”
July 9th, 2008 at 9:12 am
John,
Get it right.
“You’ve taken more balls on the chin than Yogi Berra.”
July 9th, 2008 at 9:17 am
From Financial Times
Banks find way to cushion losses
Banks are set to cushion the blow of more credit-related losses by using an accounting rule that enables them to record exceptional gains when their financial health deteriorates.
The method, which has allowed US and European banks to add more than $8bn in paper profits, faces increasing opposition from investors, analysts and credit rating agencies.
Under the rule, introduced in February 2007 after lobbying from banks, financial companies are allowed to use “mark to market” accounting on their own debt. As a result, if the price of their bonds and notes falls, banks can record a gain equal to the difference between the original value of the debt and its market price.
In past months, the rule has helped banks including Lehman Brothers, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch to boost profits.
Analysts forecast that Merrill and Citi, which report second-quarter results next week, will offset part of their expected multibillion-dollar writedowns with these gains. The impact of the accounting rule could be muted by a brief rally in debt markets in April.
More at the link above
July 9th, 2008 at 9:23 am
#11 sas
“is the genral public that dumb?”
They elected GW twice. Says it all.
July 9th, 2008 at 9:26 am
#3
“problems affecting the housing and financial markets might last longer than originally expected.”
Since the fed claims there is no inflation I’m not surprised by this latest Paulson winner.
Yo Paulson go back to GS and pillage some more fools.
July 9th, 2008 at 9:27 am
32 frank
“if I see more of these properties listed at such levels, I will switch to your camp.”
Please don’t. That would mean the bottom has arrived, and I’m not ready yet.
July 9th, 2008 at 9:27 am
#15 mikeinwaiting.
That house looks nice. I think those asking prices for similar houses will show up in Brigadoon and Brigadoon West (Basking Ridge) before this bust is over.
July 9th, 2008 at 9:28 am
#46 barien:problems affecting the housing and financial markets might last longer than originally expected.”
Last longer than who originally expected? Lots of people have been saying otherwise and they were ridiculed.
July 9th, 2008 at 9:29 am
With sales flagging and cost-cutting at a premium, pharmaceutical companies have notified New Jersey of plans to trim or relocate more than 800 jobs in the coming months.
How many of these jobs will actually return to NJ once the economy picks up again? I’m guessing they get picked up someplace else. Its one thing to relocate an existing employee or business unit. It’s much easier to expand someplace more business friendly during the next expansion.
July 9th, 2008 at 9:30 am
#32 frank
Welcome to the party pal
July 9th, 2008 at 9:36 am
33 cindy
Fwiw, Morris is a Brif
Gadoon resident
July 9th, 2008 at 9:37 am
#49 3b,
Yeah. Like most on this board have been saying this bust is going to be real ugly, even while prices were still going up.
This housing bubble has been such a waste of money and natural resources.
Instead of investing in infrastructure, renewable energy, and factories, the US flushed its treasure away by building mcmansions, flipping houses to each other, and installing granite and other nonsense.
I read at the dailyreconing the other day that this bust could costs banks 1.6 trillion and take 12 trillion out of the US economy.
July 9th, 2008 at 9:40 am
#50 rent: Agreed. It seems to em there would be no particular reason to come back,a s all the serious structural problem that the Peoples Republic of NJ faces, will continue to get worse, even while the general economy may improve.
July 9th, 2008 at 9:41 am
Frank if you switch camps we will have to pick on STU for his call yesterday to short oil.
July 9th, 2008 at 9:50 am
(52) njpatient For what it is worth….Huh?
Please translate…sorry, I didn’t catch that…
July 9th, 2008 at 9:53 am
Most of big pharma in NJ have an exit plan with 5-10 years timeline. ALL research, and tech support services will be moved. Some corporate headquaters will be left as well as sales-force due to convinient location.
Eventually all Manufacturing will be moved as well - but it is a bit harder to do.
NJ just does not cut it with high labor cost, taxes and cost of living.
July 9th, 2008 at 9:56 am
45 bairen
Once, pal. Once.
July 9th, 2008 at 9:57 am
56 CIndy
He’s saying he’s a Brigadoon resident.
July 9th, 2008 at 9:59 am
(59) lostinny….Oooooohhhhh… Thanks!
nj - You forgot…I’m all the way over here in CA.
I googled Gadoon and came up with a reference to Somalia….
Well, Your New Jersey guy is breaking things down in this book so that even I can understand them pretty well..
July 9th, 2008 at 10:00 am
NJ just does not cut it with high labor cost, taxes and cost of living.
Just thinking, but how would we be able to explain Long Island? Cost of living and taxes are worse and labor cost just as high. Nassau County taxes I think are worse than Essex County.
July 9th, 2008 at 10:04 am
29 John
To quote Roseanne Roseannadanna - you BELONG in New Jersey.
I love Astoria, I was just in the Bohemian Beer Garden last weekend. Along with 2 or 3 hundred other people, many of whom came FROM Manhattan to enjoy lovely Astoria.
July 9th, 2008 at 10:04 am
#58 njp
Once = dumb
Twice = Fing dumb. life long mouth breathing dumb.
But hey, as long as houses or the stock market goes up 10% plus a year and gas is $1.50 a gallon, the unwashed masses could care less what happens.
Take away cheap gas, reduce their houses and 401(k)s by 20% and they start to rumble. If the prices of their beer and deep fried food doubles, watch out!! They might manage to waddle out the door to protest.
July 9th, 2008 at 10:05 am
#61
I think all the toxic chemicals and years of in breeding on the Island explains it quite nicely.
July 9th, 2008 at 10:09 am
First they were targeting speculators, now the scapegoat must be deriviative traders.
“Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, ranked Aaa by the world’s largest credit-rating companies, are being treated by derivatives traders as if they are rated five levels lower. ”
“Credit-default swaps tied to $1.45 trillion of debt sold by the two biggest U.S. mortgage-finance companies are trading at levels that imply the bonds should be rated A2 by Moody’s Investors Service, according to data compiled by the firm’s credit strategy group. The price of contracts used to speculate on the creditworthiness of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and to protect against a default doubled in the past two months.”
“Traders are overlooking the government’s implied guarantee of the debt as credit losses grow and concern rises that the companies don’t have enough capital to weather the biggest housing slump since the Great Depression. Investors are viewing even an implicit guarantee from the government as potentially troublesome, said Tim Backshall, chief strategist at Credit Derivatives Research LLC in Walnut Creek, California.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a7Xkae_B763o&refer=home
July 9th, 2008 at 10:14 am
well nj has borrowed 3.5 billion for schools
garfield, paterson, trenton, passaic, get the loot…
wonderful nj towns.
and poor carla,, what next.
July 9th, 2008 at 10:17 am
perhaps katz gets a cabinet post. lets see ,,how about commission of ethics.
July 9th, 2008 at 10:31 am
56 cindy
sorry - typo.
re your post at 35, Charles Morris is from Westfield.
July 9th, 2008 at 10:33 am
62 RayC
“you BELONG in New Jersey.”
Actually, john is from Lawn Guyland, which makes NJ look like a sophisticate’s paradise.
July 9th, 2008 at 10:35 am
mark
“and poor carla,, what next.”
Hey - maybe she’ll get gov’t paid long term disability benefits despite working full time for the gov’t.
That’s how it’s done these days.
July 9th, 2008 at 10:46 am
how low can new jersey go….
corzine, and katz,,, plus the pols in trenton
who run this state.
now ,,, private lanes on the turnpike.
how about a welfare lane,,,
July 9th, 2008 at 10:48 am
(65) BC Bob - Is all of this signaling the end of Freddie and Fannie? Maybe an end to the banking industry as we currently know it. Perhaps we will revert back to the days when banks actually scrutinized their borrowers and collateral because they had to hold onto their own loans.
(68) nj - Westfield is in New Jersey, right? - I know he is an exbanker..
July 9th, 2008 at 10:52 am
#72 condy: Westfield AKA Brigaddon is in NJ.
July 9th, 2008 at 10:52 am
RayC Says:
July 9th, 2008 at 10:04 am
29 John To quote Roseanne Roseannadanna - you BELONG in New Jersey.
I love Astoria, I was just in the Bohemian Beer Garden last weekend. Along with 2 or 3 hundred other people, many of whom came FROM Manhattan to enjoy lovely Astoria.
Ray-Ray: John was describing pre-whitewashed NYC Astoria. Before around 1997-2000 NYC actually had neighborhoods. Now it has various little non-Manhattan enclaves that never existed before. What John describes was real….LIC was were you went for hookers; Astoria was for Greek food; Williamsburg was only for Luger’s or if you wanted stones thrown at your car when you drove through it on Saturday morning; the Lower East side was for burnouts looking for smack….
July 9th, 2008 at 10:55 am
Cindy Says:
July 9th, 2008 at 10:48 am
(68) nj - Westfield is in New Jersey, right?
Cindy: the only important thing you need to know about Westfield is that it does not have a one seat train ride to NYC…..
July 9th, 2008 at 10:56 am
Future Comp Killer in Brigadoon???
MLS 2515111
OLP 599,999
LP 519,999
DOM: 66
July 9th, 2008 at 11:00 am
(73) 3b (75) Chicago
Thank you - Not only do I get an education in economics here - I also pick up a bit of geography - I’m just sayin.. I like the book and the guy is from New Jersey!
July 9th, 2008 at 11:04 am
“(65) BC Bob - Is all of this signaling the end of Freddie and Fannie?”
Cindy,
They are burnt toast. They are leveraged more than Bear was at their height. In addition to this they are undercapitalized. They will become another Northern Crock. The question is how does IOUSA finance a multi-trillion rescue?
July 9th, 2008 at 11:05 am
Question for the board:
Any truth to the idea that China and India plan to do away with subsidies for gas so the demand there will wane and we will see lower barrel prices soon?
July 9th, 2008 at 11:05 am
#76 nom,
Are the barbarians approaching the gates of Brigadoon?
July 9th, 2008 at 11:07 am
#78 BC Bob,
Sell Hawaii to the Chinese or Japanese?
July 9th, 2008 at 11:09 am
My astoria days was even rawier I lived their between 86-90. I even had a junk fiat strada which I bought for 600 bucks cause it was small and I could jam into the small spot between two driveways that other cars could no fit into. By the end of the four years my front and rear bumper faced down from all the banging. My strada door lock did not work but you could not lock the door anyhow as when they stole your radio or went though glove box it was better to leave door unlocked so you did not have a broken window. Well one night I take the strada to Willy’s off Astoria blvd on the way to shea which was a crazy notrious bottomless bar that only served bud in the can. When I came out both doors of strada were wide open buckets back and the seats had the defunk from the ladies turning tricks in it as it was a cold night. In the end I had to push that thing into little neck bay and I think the seagulls are sill complaining about the smell. Astoria is famous for the Steinway piano but judging how Ray likes to hang out with the greek men in a beer garden I would say he is more partial to the organ.
July 9th, 2008 at 11:10 am
Nom [76]:
Comp killer in Westfield? Heresy. A qualified buyer in Brigadoon is one who is ready and willing to overpay, don’tcha know.
Jesting aside, at around $500k that one may represent a decent buy, depending on amount of work needed.
July 9th, 2008 at 11:12 am
John
Seriously, you’re talking about Ray and his like for the organ? What is “rawier”? Is that what a gay lion says?
July 9th, 2008 at 11:12 am
John - You crack me up…
July 9th, 2008 at 11:15 am
njpatient
No wonder why I love/hate John - I am also from lawnguyland. But worse, from right near the Queens border. Imagine the horrors of my accent.
July 9th, 2008 at 11:16 am
[80]barien,
No, I don’t think so. I think that the buying season has ended, and the last of the Hobokenites that need to be in their homes for the school year are busily sending in offers. Three places I viewed recently got immediate offers, and one got four. But the undesireables—busy street, periphery of town, needs updating badly, no central air, oil heat, stubborn overpricing seller, are all sitting and many have seen price reductions, and a few have been pulled.
I postulated about price erosion where lower towns get hit disproportionately harder, and that erodes support for the next towns up when lowering one’s standards slightly results in big savings. It also translates to intratown analysis: If the price for a Brigadoon house in an average neighborhood is 100K less than a comp in a better ‘hood, it should erode the better ‘hood price because folks will live with the fact that the neighbor’s houses aren’t mansions and pocket the 100K difference. But once those higher end homes crack a bit, the value proposition comes back into play and they sell.
So there are price declines, to be sure, but I don’t see support for the town dropping off so dramatically. A lower price point means that more qualified buyers can get in, and then places sell.
July 9th, 2008 at 11:18 am
Hey John,
Have you read any of the late Charles Bukowski, poetry or fiction? You might like his style.
July 9th, 2008 at 11:19 am
Cindy 79
http://anz.theoildrum.com/node/4260
July 9th, 2008 at 11:19 am
[83] It would need some work. Also, rooms are tiny and no central air. I also think that the street is a pass thru and very busy but I can’t say for sure.
Still, I saw a similar, slightly smaller house near there sit forever at 575, and it is now in A/R. I considered it but it needed to be expanded. This house I would not expand, but would reconfigure and make upgrades, so I would be sinking about another 100K if it were a workable location.
July 9th, 2008 at 11:24 am
John,
Bohemian Beer Garden John, not Athenian Beer Garden. They have a huge Slovak festival. You’ll need to come up with an appropriate gay slur for a whole different ethnicity.
I had friends who lived in Astoria in the early 90s, and friends and relatives who have lived their since the 50s. So I know of that era as well. The Beer Garden almost closed in 1994. And so much for the perfect 1950s. My parents grew up there and said that heroin was a huge problem there in the public schools when they were there.
Of course, back then, I was hanging around the edges of Alphabet city, so anywhere else seemed fine by comparison.
July 9th, 2008 at 11:29 am
Nom [90],
It is a pass thru street but I think mcuh of the traffic is for Tamaques Elementary, which, judging by the map is fairly close. OTH, easy walk to elementary school and not that long a walk to Edison Intermediate, either. That cape at the corner of Willow Grove and Rahway, which is a busy intersection, just sold.
July 9th, 2008 at 11:29 am
Nom
The street looks OK on that house. They paid $307k for it in 2000, so they are now asking for almost 7% appreciation year over year. Lets not all bid at once. NAR would issue a press release about it.
July 9th, 2008 at 11:34 am
#nom,
Brigadoon is holding up better then Brigadoon West (Basking Ridge)?
I’m seeing 15% price drops on SFH in good old BR from April 07 till today. Townhouses/condos around 20% (don’t track The Hills so maybe it’s different there. ha ha)
July 9th, 2008 at 11:35 am
RayC Says:
July 9th, 2008 at 11:24 am
They have a huge Slovak festival.
Dude: Slata Praha or Koliba?
July 9th, 2008 at 11:38 am
Nom Deplume Says:
July 9th, 2008 at 11:16 am
[80]barien, Three places I viewed recently got immediate offers, and one got four. But the undesireables—busy street, periphery of town, needs updating badly, no central air, oil heat, stubborn overpricing seller, are all sitting and many have seen price reductions, and a few have been pulled.
Nom: There is some latent pant-up demand. Kidding aside, yes, for the qualified buyers, there is certainly a sense of striking while the iron is hot. However, I am almost to the point of guaranteeing you that any strength you see in the market today is the equivalent of a suckers-rally style of action…
July 9th, 2008 at 11:38 am
chicagofinance
Oh I remember. I went to high school in Manhattan starting in Sept of 77, a lovely time. I had friends who lived in Greenpoint, and I remember seeing McClaren Park, and even going into the Turkey’s Nest (I think its still there) for drinks, but being told never to go into the park. Only stupid kids would have even bothered to go there when there plenty of other less deadly places to go for underage drinking. But it was fun at the time.
July 9th, 2008 at 11:39 am
http://www.city-data.com/forum/new-jersey/373972-real-state-agents-inflating-house-prices.html
some realtor should go help this guy out.
July 9th, 2008 at 11:41 am
chicagofinance
My friend from Greenpoint is Italian-Polish, the so the only thing I know is the response to Nostrovia. And I can only say it, not spell it. And after a few rounds it gets better. Or worse, not sure.
July 9th, 2008 at 11:42 am
“Frank if you switch camps we will have to pick on STU for his call yesterday to short oil.”
Hey!!!
July 9th, 2008 at 11:42 am
RayC Says:
July 9th, 2008 at 11:24 am
Of course, back then, I was hanging around the edges of Alphabet city, so anywhere else seemed fine by comparison.
Ray-Ray: I remember walking here….
http://www.theaterforthenewcity.net/
to see my then-aunt’s production. Basically the instructions from my uncle were, once you leave the Astor Place station, don’t walk down St. Marks. Walk up to 10th and don’t look up or talk to anyone until you get to Veniero’s…
July 9th, 2008 at 11:43 am
sorry in 1983…..I was 15…
July 9th, 2008 at 11:43 am
Ray C & Nom,
Doesn’t that “Priced to Sell” header in the description get you salivating?
I’m betting “Best and Final” by Monday noon after the OH this weekend. Can’t we all bid against each other? Would that violate blog etiquette?
July 9th, 2008 at 11:46 am
chicagofinance
But for food, I always went to the Kiev in the East Village.
July 9th, 2008 at 11:46 am
Next gtg in Astoria?!
John, I would consider 4 years to be a transient, just passing through. I’ve been here since ‘72.
Where is this bar, with Bud in the can?
July 9th, 2008 at 11:48 am
Speaking of greeks…..another vivid memory was going to a party being thrown by a girl I has a crush on in high school. I think I was 16. Her parents lived on Hudson in those row houses just below where the Christopher Street Path station exit is.
Anyway, I got off the 1 train at Sheridan Square and walked down Christopher to Hudson. So I am 16 years old, wear a plain white tee shirt, and my beat up tight jeans and i am skinny as a rail. I never felt to utterly leered at in my entire life. I felt like I was a raw steak hanging outside of the lion cage……I was more than a little freaked out cause a lot of people were really drunk.
July 9th, 2008 at 11:50 am
chicagofinance
mmmm….Veniero’s, still good. I dated a girl from StuyTown whose grandfather owned an Italian restaurant on MacDougal from the 60s to the 90s. No, he wasn’t mobbed up, but he said often late at night, 10 guys would show up, and he would have to stay open late and feed them. So as dangerous a some of these areas were, being local you felt safe enough. NY really was more interesting back then, but that is what my kids will say about now.
July 9th, 2008 at 11:52 am
twice shy
There’s etiquette that I am supposed to be observing? I promise I won’t bid more than $425. Wait, if this is the price is right I just got screwed.
July 9th, 2008 at 11:52 am
scribe Says:
July 9th, 2008 at 11:46 am
Next gtg in Astoria?!
John, I would consider 4 years to be a transient, just passing through. I’ve been here since ‘72. Where is this bar, with Bud in the can?
ahh the good old days……
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/2/2b/NYPost.jpg
July 9th, 2008 at 11:54 am
Dont hold your breath waiting for the Chatham market to go down. Houses are still selling for over asking.
July 9th, 2008 at 11:55 am
grim, why the moderation?
July 9th, 2008 at 11:57 am
RayC Says:
July 9th, 2008 at 11:50 am
chicagofinance
NY really was more interesting back then, but that is what my kids will say about now.
ray: I am thinking you are right.
My brother was 19 a legal to drink and I was 17. We went with a group to McSorley’s and I remember waiting a long time to get a table. Finally, my brother asked the guy why we could get a seat….he turned to my brother and with a thick-Irish accent said “…because the women you are with are being pricks…” I forget, it was men-only for a long time right? Anyway, I nearly s*it my pants…
July 9th, 2008 at 11:58 am
why we could NOT
July 9th, 2008 at 11:58 am
86 RayC
“I am also from lawnguyland. But worse, from right near the Queens border.”
Funny - my grandmother’s house was half in Queens and half in Nassau.
Had to get my MA on the Island as well. Couple years of hell in Stony Brook.
July 9th, 2008 at 11:58 am
(89) Kettle1 - Thanks for the info…
“But the decline of mature oil fields throughout the world is an even greater source of demand for new oil supplies than the growth of end user demand.”
There is a CNNMoney.com article called “Bye-bye gas subsidies” dtd. 7-2-08 that goes both ways on the issue. That is why I was asking for opinions.
“The bill is just getting too big,” said John Kilduff, an energy analyst at MF Global in New York.”
“Cambridge’s Veno agrees.”
“These subsidies artificially protect consumers from high prices of oil,” he said. Eliminating them would have almost an immediate effect to curtail demand.”
July 9th, 2008 at 12:00 pm
RayC: did you go to Dan Lynch’s? I still cannot believe it is gone…..than would have been hands-down the best next GTG place…
July 9th, 2008 at 12:00 pm
chicagofinance
Christopher street. Now I have to go find that parody of Sesame street that National Lampoon did. This episode of “Christopher Street” was brought to you by the letters, KY.
July 9th, 2008 at 12:01 pm
njpatient Says:
July 9th, 2008 at 11:58 am
Had to get my MA on the Island as well. Couple years of hell in Stony Brook.
njp: you mean Stonyland…..
July 9th, 2008 at 12:02 pm
Next GTG at the Scobey Diner!
July 9th, 2008 at 12:04 pm
chicagofinance
McSorley’s. The old “whoops” bathroom. For about a decade after they allowed women in, there was still only 1 bathroom.
And Dan Lynch’s, yes. Odd you should mention that, that is where my friend from Greenpoint and I went drinking on his last night in NYC before moving away. Forget the circle of life, its a circle of drinking today for me.
July 9th, 2008 at 12:07 pm
njpatient
Hell in Stony Brook? I spend every Thanksgiving in Setauket. Used to go the Park Bench afterwards, when I was young and could get off the couch after Turkey.
July 9th, 2008 at 12:07 pm
chicagofinance
Is that the Diner in Fresh Meadows?
Mmmmm….gravy fries….
July 9th, 2008 at 12:08 pm
RayC Says:
July 9th, 2008 at 12:04 pm
chicagofinance
And Dan Lynch’s, yes. Odd you should mention that, that is where my friend from Greenpoint and I went drinking on his last night in NYC before moving away. Forget the circle of life, its a circle of drinking today for me.
Ray: It isn’t odd. It is because it was the best f-ing dive bar within a 20 blocks radius. I started my brother’s bachelor party pub crawl there…..when the open-mike blues started at 4PM on Saturday, it was awesome. $1.50 Prior draughts and free music until 9PM. Pizza on the corner.
July 9th, 2008 at 12:08 pm
re: Queens Beer Garden joint.
I fail to see the allure, it looks like a sword fight to me.
http://l.yimg.com/g/images/spaceball.gif
July 9th, 2008 at 12:10 pm
[119] RayC
Wow, there is a memory. I was just describing McSorley’s to my wife last night.
Just after my freshman year ended at UMass, my then-girlfriend decided she wanted to thumb to NYC on a Friday night. So we did.
Among the places she wanted me to see was McSorley’s. Beer so bad, it was actually good. Still had the original dust from when it opened.
Over 2 decades later, I went to NYU for grad school, but was so busy that I never got back over to McSorley’s.
July 9th, 2008 at 12:11 pm
Here we go….I misspelled it…among my other pathetic syntax on this thread….
http://uemso.com/documents/ScobeeBreakfastJuly2008.pdf
July 9th, 2008 at 12:12 pm
RayC and Chicago - You guys had some kinda fun..good memories. Take it from an old person - keep telling your stories or you will forget them all!
Gotta run - coffee w/ the girls every Wed. AM…
July 9th, 2008 at 12:13 pm
#109 tbw; Funny, others have posted on this site form time to time, that they are seeing subsanial price declines in Chatam.
Well either way they are coming there too I am sure.
July 9th, 2008 at 12:16 pm
I can’t believe all this chatter about Westfield. Brigadoon is hanging tough. We still have our Trader Joe’ (with 2-buck-chuck!), our gold paved streets, and 1200 geese crossing the road at any given moment.
I’m sitting in my house right now and I can FEEL it appreciating in value. Plus I head we might getting a brand new Kung Fu Academy in town – complete with oversized trophies in the window.
July 9th, 2008 at 12:16 pm
He misspelled it! Attach him!!!
July 9th, 2008 at 12:17 pm
cindy 114
i think we will see a dip in the price of oil, followed by a continuing increase in price. depletion currently appears to be a stronger factor then demand destruction.
a simple example of some of the dynamics:
you have 3 users, User1, User2,User3
Each has more wealth then the other i.e User1 = rich
user 2 = average
User3 = poor
as prices for oil increase, user 3 will be priced out of the market at some point. At that point you will likely see a dip in prices. however user2 and user3 will then consume the slack in demand since prices dropped a bit therefore continuing to drive up prices. eventually user2 gets priced out and another dip occurs, following the same cycle as the drop out of user3.
This is analogue behavior,not digital, so it is not all or nothing, i.e the reduction of subsidies in india and china instead of significant demand destruction.
consider another simplified example. if china and india’s demand drop by 5%, then that 5% is available to the USA as increased consumption while maintaining the current prices. there may be a price drop until the US consumes the slack but the price drop will be temporary
but hey this is just the opinion of an (not so)anonymous blog junkie
July 9th, 2008 at 12:19 pm
Here’s another reason for staying a Bucks County resident a while longer:
Just paid my insurance on two cars registered in Bucks. It is currently just over $1500 for the year. It will go up b/c I am adding the 19 y/o au pair to my insurance, but probably by $300-400 per year.
Planning for eventual Jersey residency, I got a quote from the same company for Brigadoon: 0ver $3800 a year!!!! This is with the au pair, but she acounts for only a few hundred of that. So move from Bucks to Brigadoon and your auto insurance more than doubles.
Explain to me again why I want to buy here???
July 9th, 2008 at 12:20 pm
Rich In NNJ Says:
July 9th, 2008 at 12:16 pm
He misspelled it! Attach him!!!
Noted.
I managed to use pant-up demand in this thread too.
July 9th, 2008 at 12:21 pm
I guess we’re all neighbors. I spent my early childhood in Bayside.
July 9th, 2008 at 12:23 pm
132
Yes, the pant-up demand is keeping me out of a house, especially that lovely split I saw with the crush valor.
July 9th, 2008 at 12:25 pm
kettle1 Says:
July 9th, 2008 at 12:17 pm
ket: I agree, but you also have to think about long-run demand curve dynamics. Your model is only one period, and it does not account for dynamic structual change in demand through the passge of time. Given time and motivation, there can be structural change (e.g., Prius, moving from Brigadoon to Hoboken).
July 9th, 2008 at 12:26 pm
Nom Deplume
McSorley’s so dangerous. So very dangerous. Last time I was there was for a sendoff of a friend who was moving back to London, we were driving around the Upper East on a Saturday afternoon looking for parking near our local when he mentioned that he had never been to McSorley’s. I took off down 2nd ave and several blocks later he realized he was in trouble. I parked right on 7th street (TV spot), and went back the next day to get my car. That is all I am really clear on. I have a friend who blames it on the cheese and onions platter at McSorley’s, and he may be right.
July 9th, 2008 at 12:27 pm
#105 - That part hasn’t changed at all, it’s just spread to include much more of downtown.
I took a stroll through Chelsea a few weeks ago on a Sat. night. I’ve never felt so much like a piece of meat in my entire life.
July 9th, 2008 at 12:29 pm
96 chifi
“However, I am almost to the point of guaranteeing you that any strength you see in the market today is the equivalent of a suckers-rally style of action…”
Yes
July 9th, 2008 at 12:33 pm
106 RayC
” dated a girl from StuyTown whose grandfather owned an Italian restaurant on MacDougal from the 60s to the 90s. No, he wasn’t mobbed up, but he said often late at night, 10 guys would show up, and he would have to stay open late and feed them. ”
I used to take friends from out of town to Umbertos or Angelos for the spectator sport of mobster-watching.
July 9th, 2008 at 12:36 pm
Kettle1
I’m just noticing today that Mini(BMW) and Nissan are all announcing coming out with electric cars in a few years.
I don’t think they are planning on oil going back down.
http://www.autoblog.com/2008/07/09/bmw-plans-500-electric-minis-for-california
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080709/ap_on_bi_ge/japan_nissan_electric_cars_2
July 9th, 2008 at 12:36 pm
114 Cindy
““These subsidies artificially protect consumers from high prices of oil,” he said. Eliminating them would have almost an immediate effect to curtail demand.””
ah - one of my favorite concepts: The high price of oil will cause the price of oil to fall.
Hard to argue.
July 9th, 2008 at 12:36 pm
grim, 140 in moderation
July 9th, 2008 at 12:37 pm
njpatient
..and then they could go home and rent the Godfather, or Goodfellas.
Has anyone ever been to Rao’s? I only know one person who has been there.
July 9th, 2008 at 12:44 pm
“Has anyone ever been to Rao’s?”
Never been, but been to Park Bench, Scobee diner (right by Grandma Patient’s house off the Boulevard), McS - probably got in a fight with one of you punks back in the day.
July 9th, 2008 at 12:45 pm
Just heard.. a company I am consulting for is laying off 230 people. It’s US HQ is in Atlanta, but has offices all over.
July 9th, 2008 at 12:45 pm
My 2 cents on Pharma. Most of the EU based Pharma companies are moving the jobs back to the EU. I work for Bayer and when we bought Schering and moved out of CT, over 800 research jobs went to Berlin. Kinda crazy in some ways due to the AG system and trying to downsize a German org is infinity harder than downsizing a US org. However we have three NJ sites which I have to believe will be significantly reduced in the future. As the developing regions become more attractive (China etc) and the US market less lucrative, more jobs will go out of NJ and to the local Singapore (for example) offices. As for biotechs, the PA and MA corridors are growing, NJ shrinking. PA has a couple of very successful incubators launched on tobacco money that are doing very well. Big Pharma is not what it used to be (good and bad) and in my opinion, biotechs are where the fun and risk are.
July 9th, 2008 at 12:46 pm
I am one of the few who liked Charles Bukowski barfly movie so I will buy a book, thanks for the tip.
Scobee diner rocks. Exit 32 baby!!!
When I lived in Great Neck I lived in the first block in Nassau County, neighbors across street was in queens, in 1977 black we threw an extension cord their way to help them out.
Thomkins park in Alphabet City was crazy dangerous back in the day my buddy who was a bouncer lived their and he was huge and he was scared.
McSorleys has not been the same since they put the ladies bathroom in.
Wileys was a nasty bar off astoria blvd half way to shea stadium from astoria. Had a heavy front door with a little slot they slid, you had to show work ID to get in. Cops, Drug Dealers and Pimps don’t have work ID. My buddy who was in the IBM Management Training Program was with me that night and he had to put his new IBM badge though a slot in the door which was funny. Tipping was a buck in the hand and five bucks wherever you can shove it. My IBM friend was screwing around and leaned backwards on his folding chair onto the stage to look up. Well the girl did not like it and she copped a squat on him and grinded his face like a polish sausage for a good five minutes while he was dangled backwards in a folding chair, when she was done he looked like a tray of crispy cream donuts that got mashed by a truck on a hot summer day. But after a few biker high fives and a $2.50 bud can he was as good as new. Only went to Wiley’s once, a guy at EF Hutton lived in Astoria and was always telling us about the insane bachelor parties there and how nasty it was. After drinking in the city till three am one night we decided to go over there. That guy was right. It was nasty.
July 9th, 2008 at 12:47 pm
…blames it on the cheese and onions platter…
He’s wrong. It’s the saltines.
July 9th, 2008 at 12:48 pm
146 john
“When I lived in Great Neck I lived in the first block in Nassau County, neighbors across street was in queens”
Glenwood St?
July 9th, 2008 at 12:50 pm
“Try that great property site.”
LOL
July 9th, 2008 at 12:50 pm
grim - I didn’t know you were watching!
July 9th, 2008 at 12:51 pm
grim, why the moderation?
Moderation is like Purgatory. When the blog software decides you have done something questionable, it automatically puts you in moderation. If Grim decides there is nothing wrong, your post is unmoderated (you go to heaven). If not, your message goes elsewhere.
Some examples of things that seem to trigger moderation:
Certain words or phrases.
multiple URL’s in single message.
I’m sure there are other things that trigger it as well.
July 9th, 2008 at 12:55 pm
Rentlord, transport?
July 9th, 2008 at 12:56 pm
NJ kiwi,
I am seeing similar parallels at other euro-based biotech/pharma organizations.
FWIW
July 9th, 2008 at 12:58 pm
http://www.mlsli.com/searchsold.cfm
Really cool, MLS lets you search for properties that sold in last 12 months and gives you the price.
July 9th, 2008 at 1:00 pm
Nassau Road, Glennwood maybe had a few houses with backyards that touched nassau county. Nassau Road is the first road where all houses are in Nassau hence the name Nassau Road!!!
. jpatient Says:
July 9th, 2008 at 12:48 pm
146 john
“When I lived in Great Neck I lived in the first block in Nassau County, neighbors across street was in queens”
Glenwood St?
July 9th, 2008 at 1:06 pm
Sybarite, it does seem to be picking up, partic with the exchange rate to euros, why put effort into US dollars when you get crushed turning it into home euro currency? EBIT EBIT EBIT is everything, but consolidated not local.
July 9th, 2008 at 1:06 pm
[150] Rich,
Ha! They still have those? I remember I was so hungry, I actually kept eating those things.
(that’s what you do when you thumb to NYC for a weekend with $40 in your pocket, and ATMs weren’t prevalent yet).
July 9th, 2008 at 1:06 pm
Pat, Its their healthcare division. Company itself is a software solutions provider for many vertical markets.
July 9th, 2008 at 1:06 pm
What if we threw out all the illegal immigrants?
July 9th, 2008 at 1:12 pm
[156] Sybarite,
One factor may be the new exit tax imposed by the HEART Act. Very punitive. I am sure that NJP is getting peppered with questions from his H1Bees.
Also, there may be other tax advantages, esp. now that the feds are cracking down on transfer pricing issues (re: GSK). I don’t profess to actually know, but moves like that are not made unless they make financial sense, and with the Obama tax plan; and Schumer, Waters, and Kanjorski threatening to nationalize the industry, it may make sense to move critical ops offshore while leaving distribution subsidiaries in the U.S.
July 9th, 2008 at 1:13 pm
Grim, 163 in mod.
July 9th, 2008 at 1:17 pm
Off topic–
I called over to the NJ Div. of Banking to ask a routine question. I am getting the “all reps are busy” message. The state workers (there’s an oxymoron) must be at lunch. For grins, I left the call on the line. It has been in queue for over 35 minutes now.
How do I get one of those “jobs”???
July 9th, 2008 at 1:19 pm
Does anyone else out there think that NJ municipalities are turning to ticketing to mitigate revenue shortfalls? My car got ticketed on the street in front of my apartment for being unregistered. It is in fact registered, but the DMV computer hadn’t updated. When I presented evidence of registration to the Police, they said great see you in court. Or you can pay the ticket. I called the court to see if I could mail it in. Nope. See you in court or you can pay the ticket. Something is not right when the police are running license plates of parked cars on the 4th of July looking for unregistereds.
Sorry for the OT, but I’m pi$$ed.
July 9th, 2008 at 1:24 pm
[166] prt
Get used to that. More money in nonmoving violations b/c money stays in the muni and meter/parking enforcement is cheaper. Still, moving violations will ramp up, be assured of that.
Got one of those tickets in Montco. MD once. Car was registered in VA but had not received sticker yet (legal under VA law). I contested it. Gave the judge a memo of law as to why the registration was valid notwithstanding the sticker, and why enforcement of the sticker req. violated the constitutional right to travel and the Commerce Clause. She threw up her hands (literally) and said “dismissed.” When I left, an attorney asked me “how’d you do that? No one leaves here without paying something!” I just shrugged.
July 9th, 2008 at 1:31 pm
[165] update
After over 44 minutes in queue, A DOBI person picked up. When I replied “wow, someone picked up,” and asked my question, she put me back into the beginning of the queue.
I am going to leave it on, just to see how long it takes for them to get to it.
At 46:45, she picked up again, and when I asked my question, I got, “the person is out to lunch. I just work the phones.”
Stay tuned.
July 9th, 2008 at 1:33 pm
137 chifi,
i also agree with your point but i do not think we will see serious change in that area for a couple of years at least. in the mean time prices will likely continue the pattern i described before.
July 9th, 2008 at 1:35 pm
njpatient
I never got into a fight in McSorley’s. Once, right outside, yes, but inside “Be Good or Be Gone”. and the 2nd best McSorley’s sign, “Free Beer Tomorrow”. I just know someone returned…
And Rich, I hope its not the Saltines, I think I have some in my house. Just to be sure I will remove them and replace them with a cracker that doesn’t get you s&$faced.
July 9th, 2008 at 1:41 pm
166, it’s a scam. They’ll keep adjourning your case until you pay. It’s a test to see how much time your willing to waste. Fortunately, I lived within 3 blocks of my local courthouse on my last ticket. I brought plenty of reading material. I spent atleast 18 hours in court before they got rid of my ticket. The cop told them to drop it when he realized I’d be willing to fight this for the next 5 years.
July 9th, 2008 at 1:45 pm
168 Nom
““the person is out to lunch.”
literally? Or just figuratively?
July 9th, 2008 at 1:46 pm
# 13 http://www.ahajokes.com/mommy_mommy_jokes.html
July 9th, 2008 at 1:49 pm
Looking for the wisdom of the posters on this…
On a single family home that’s new or nearly new for about $1M in Tewksbury or $1.3M in Basking Ridge… What would you expect to see happen to those values in 1, 2, 5, 10 years?
July 9th, 2008 at 1:50 pm
John (43)-
Look how well covered bonds have worked in the UK.
[sarcasm off]
I think Colonel Klink doesn’t want to admit that one of the cures for the mortgage industry may be a return to old-fashioned portfolio lending.
See how much stated/stated the bank will take when they have to carry that note.
July 9th, 2008 at 1:56 pm
John (83)-
Recycled story. Make up some new ones.
July 9th, 2008 at 1:57 pm
Fannie/Freddie: detonator set, clock ticking.
July 9th, 2008 at 2:00 pm
#176 clot,
It’s a new twist. Last time it was only 1 seat and he was with 2 guys in Manhattan
July 9th, 2008 at 2:00 pm
bairen (95)-
The Hills are toast. Whacked by the ugly stick.
July 9th, 2008 at 2:01 pm
Re 176 just testing you, if I could make up stories I would be a screen writer on hollywood. Interesting enough in real life colonial klink was jewish.
July 9th, 2008 at 2:02 pm
#177 - There’s also been a lot of upward movement on ABK & PMI. I’m assuming there’s a co-relation but I’m not sure what. I could see them going down jointly but the disparity is odd.
July 9th, 2008 at 2:05 pm
#180 - Interesting enough in real life colonial klink was jewish.
You mean an actor is different from the character he plays? I’m speechless.
July 9th, 2008 at 2:08 pm
176 clot
“Recycled story. Make up some new ones.’
So it is. I hadn’t even read it, but I remember those hookers and that funk-smelling car.
July 9th, 2008 at 2:11 pm
Ray (105)-
Nobody beat Sammy’s Roumanian.
That place may be why Zocor was invented.
July 9th, 2008 at 2:13 pm
How come some people claim they never read John’s stories, but everybody knows when it’s a rerun?
July 9th, 2008 at 2:13 pm
I never inhaled.
July 9th, 2008 at 2:26 pm
Ray (145)-
Been there (went with a friend who was chef/owner of another place). It sucks.
July 9th, 2008 at 2:34 pm
The FDA has imposed an urgent warning on the drug Cipro, and similar antibiotics.
Drug safety officials say the class of drugs can cause tendon ruptures.
The FDA has ordered makers of the antibiotics to add a “black box” warning to their products.
Doctors say you should stop taking the medication, immediately, if you develop any tendon pain, swelling, or inflammation.
Interesting thing about this is I have been arguing with doctors since 2001 about this side effect, to no avail. They must get paid a lot to prescribe it. They were very annoyed when I insisted on Clarithamycin versus a Quinalone (e.g. Cipro, Levaquin, Tequin, etc.), because of a reaction of this type in 2001.
July 9th, 2008 at 2:35 pm
Pat (185)-
I read John’s stories. They have an almost haiku-like structure and predictability. In each one, you’re guaranteed to have certain elements (some more gut-wrenching than others).
He is also a human encyclopedia of the all-time great lemon cars.
July 9th, 2008 at 2:35 pm
Not sure if this is a good method for determining a possible house offer…..
total tax assessed value vs. sale price
using 2 past sales in neighborhood both sold approx. 1 year ago for $210,000 more than assessed value.
The house that is currently on the market is assessed $40,000 less than comps.(assessed at the same time as comps)
Is it a good assumption that I can take the assessed value and add $210,000 for a fair market value…assuming that values remained the
constant (which is not true…I will compensate for that).
Thanks.
FB
July 9th, 2008 at 2:41 pm
615 Ripley Place
Brigadoon 2-family house: $359k
Taxes: 4949
Just came on market.
FWIW
YMMV
ZOMGWTFBBQ
July 9th, 2008 at 2:43 pm
RE 190
Just checked the map, though, and I think it’s located in the ‘doon ghetto.
July 9th, 2008 at 2:44 pm
Clot, I always read them in order to perfect my Fran Drescher accent. Whatever way John spells the words is how I practice the pronunciation.
I’m sure it will come in handy some day.
July 9th, 2008 at 2:45 pm
Anecdote Time, “Fun with Realtors”:
I’ve decided to begin interviewing Realtors for my purchase that may or may not happen in 12-24 months (or longer). But I’ve decided to quickly ween them out with one simple question:
What is the average rate of return year over year in center city (Philadelphia) properties over a 10, 15 & 20 year period?
A quick google search will provide the answer and even led them down that path by providing a 3% suggestion, but here is my first response:
“Great question, 3% could be accurate when taken over that long of a period of time, however Center City experienced unbelievable numbers between 2003-2006…..some neighborhoods as much as 30% per year! I think we were finally catching up to our east coast counterparts as we were undervalued relative to some of those other cities like DC and Boston. That’s why I think Center City has taken much less of a hit than some other places.
I wish I had more exact data to share.”
NEXT!
July 9th, 2008 at 2:46 pm
#185 Pat,
I read John’s stories. I find them funny on many levels.
I picture Archie Bunker at a keyboard pounding away with 2 fingers.
July 9th, 2008 at 2:48 pm
Can someone help me out with an address for this NJMLS Listing 2814273?
Thanks in advance.
July 9th, 2008 at 2:49 pm
#179 clot,
How much have The Hills dropped? Is it 15 to 20% like the other developments and SFH in Basking Ridge?
July 9th, 2008 at 2:51 pm
Isn’t the majority of the Hills in Bedminster?
July 9th, 2008 at 2:54 pm
#185 & #194 - I always pictured some weird combo of Cliff Clavin and Archie bunker, but mainly the former.
July 9th, 2008 at 2:58 pm
196-197:
The majority of condoshacks are on the Bedminster side. The BR side is more SFH and nicer townhomes.
20-25% off peak is more like it on the Bedminster side. Also a fair amount of foreclosure going on there.
July 9th, 2008 at 3:01 pm
Clotpoll
I’m glad to hear that - now I don’t feel so left out.
July 9th, 2008 at 3:34 pm
BTS (195),
15 TERKUILE RD
July 9th, 2008 at 3:42 pm
FRE and FNM getting pounded again. Big volume on FRE as well.
July 9th, 2008 at 3:45 pm
Clot,
Did you back up the truck the other day when SKF hit 150?
July 9th, 2008 at 3:46 pm
Montvale FUTURE Comp Killer!
SOLD: 695 MAYWOOD AVE $470,000 5/3/2006
MLS#: 2828316
List: $439,900 7/8/2008
July 9th, 2008 at 3:46 pm
Thanks.
July 9th, 2008 at 3:47 pm
#199 clot,
Thanks for the info.
July 9th, 2008 at 3:48 pm
#204 Rich -
That one looks like it’s in Maywood, no?
July 9th, 2008 at 3:48 pm
Old Tappan FUTURE Comp Killer!
SOLD: 8 LACHMUND CT $1,287,500 6/16/2005
MLS#: 2828405
Orig. List: $1,319,000 2/6/2008
Last List: $1,199,900 7/8/2008
July 9th, 2008 at 3:51 pm
Paramus FUTURE Comp Killer!
SOLD: 186 LOZIER CT $635,000 9/23/2004
MLS#: 2828477 (REO)
Orig. List: $780,000 10/16/2006
Last List: $519,900 7/9/2008
July 9th, 2008 at 3:53 pm
Wasn’t she (effectively) calling me a jacka%% on national TV two years ago? Man, is she singing a different tune today!
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/37451/Barbara-Corcorans-Top-4-Tips-for-Sellers
July 9th, 2008 at 3:54 pm
Ridgewood FUTURE Comp Killer!
SOLD: 150 HOPE ST $679,000 8/22/2006
MLS#: 2828319
List: $599,900 7/8/2008
July 9th, 2008 at 3:55 pm
MovinB (207),
You are correct!! That is Maywood, not Montvale.
THANKS for catching that!
July 9th, 2008 at 3:58 pm
“Your Neighbor is your enemy”
Check out the sellers advise from Barbara-Corcoran
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/37451/Barbara-Corcorans-Top-4-Tips-for-Sellers
July 9th, 2008 at 4:01 pm
Re: John
I always read his stories I am looking for something that will indicate to me for sure that he actually is my girlfriends husband who interestly enough is also named John. The reason I know that will happen is because that John also always has a story, he is somehow or was somehow involved in some famous incident. He was also the best at everything, including his high school football career. He went to school with so many famous people.. they are different ages but that makes no nevermind.
I had even went so far as to go to the library in the town of his high school to find out about his “famous Football Career” Do I need to tell you he was’nt on the football team, he was even the waterboy. Alas why did I need to know that (I mean I knew it w/out knowing) I don’t know, I ‘m not married to the guy, but his stories drive m