Tue 15 Jul 2008
I, For One, Welcome Our New Mortgage Overlords
Categories: Economics , Housing Bubble , National Real EstateFrom the LA Times:
Fed slaps new rules on mortgage lenders
The Federal Reserve clamped down hard on mortgage lenders Monday, issuing rules designed to curb the sorts of risky and deceptive lending practices that helped trigger the subprime mortgage crisis.
The Fed’s action, although criticized by some for not going far enough, was widely seen as a crucial step in reasserting control over a financial market that had been allowed to run wild.
“There’s lots more to come,” said Thomas Lawler, a former Fed official who is now a housing market consultant. “The pendulum is clearly swinging toward more regulation and more government involvement.”
The central thrust of the new rules is to restore sound underwriting practices, such as requiring lenders to verify that borrowers actually have the income and assets to make their loan payments.
The regulations adopted Monday were significantly stiffer than draft proposals issued six months ago, reflecting regulators’ intensifying concern over the fallout from the free-for-all lending that helped create the bubble in home values and led to the mortgage meltdown.
…
In adopting the new rules on mortgage lending, Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke traced the lenders’ woes back to their own practices.“Although the high rate of delinquency has a number of causes, it seems clear that unfair or deceptive acts and practices by lenders resulted in the extension of many loans, particularly high-cost loans, that were inappropriate for or misled the borrower,” Bernanke said in a statement.
The new rules take effect Oct. 1 and will apply to all mortgage lenders, brokers, servicers and banks, not just those already regulated by the central bank.
“These rules are a step forward in returning common-sense business practices to the subprime lending market,” said Paul Leonard, director of the California office of the Center for Responsible Lending, a nonprofit advocacy group.
…
The Fed’s final version of the regulations were much more stringent than draft proposals issued late last year. The new rules include four measures aimed at targeting abuses in the subprime mortgage market, which has been largely unregulated because the loans are securitized and held by private investors.
…
Reinhart of the American Enterprise Institute said the rules also reflected an about-face from the relaxed attitude toward mortgage lending that prevailed under former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan.“Alan Greenspan believed in the light hand of regulation. How he put that in place was in not moving at all, and that turns out not to be desirable,” Reinhart said. “So now the government is taking an active role.”
July 15th, 2008 at 6:01 am
This benefits most of you with much higher incomes ( upper 25%) when you show up for the fire sale pre-approved.
The blue collar people are screwed.
July 15th, 2008 at 6:05 am
IMHO, these regulations sharply minimize any possibility of a quick recovery over the next few years. Forcing lenders to verify assets and ensure repayment will pull a good number of potential buyers from the market.
July 15th, 2008 at 6:11 am
2, True. But for most of the people who post here it seems that pulling buyers reduces demand. The JD’s, high earners, ect. here with 30-50K down payment are still going to get loans. Mortgages are still a very profitable product.
The paranoid part of my mind thinks that is is yet another wealth consolidation tactic. Because holding property is the true form of making long term wealth.
All the truly very comfortable people I know have large holdings of RE. In a year or two it may be time to start acquiring an RE position.
July 15th, 2008 at 6:11 am
From the WSJ:
Mortgage Insurers Raise Bar
Potential Home Buyers
Face Stricter Standards,
Higher Costs
By AMY MERRICK
July 15, 2008; Page A1
Mortgage insurers have been dramatically tightening their standards throughout the U.S., further squeezing potential home buyers.
Stung by growing defaults, lenders are offering borrowers fewer ways to avoid purchasing private mortgage insurance. Mortgage insurance, required for buyers who are unable to make a full down payment or who have insufficient credit histories, reimburses lenders in the event of a borrower default. But over the past few months, mortgage insurers have been declaring more and more of the U.S. a “declining market,” raising the requirements and making such insurance harder to obtain. The result: another hurdle for home buyers, and yet another wrenching change for the struggling housing market.
While it’s difficult to gauge the severity of the impact, industry executives concede insurers’ tighter standards are affecting the market. At ShoreBank Corp., a community-development bank with branches in Chicago, Cleveland and other cities, the insurers’ tighter standards are “wreaking havoc,” says Michelle Collins, director of mortgage lending. For a popular conventional loan package, “easily 70% of the previous set of borrowers will not be able to buy,” she adds.
The spreading restrictions are a symptom not only of the housing and credit crisis but of the mortgage-insurance industry’s own huge losses. The insurers face massive borrower defaults on loans that were approved when securing a mortgage was far easier.
…
Michael Zimmerman, a spokesman for industry leader MGIC Investment Corp., says, “So far, we’re only losing the business that we no longer want to write. The long-term objective of anybody in the housing industry should not be just affordability but sustainability. I think for the last few years, the drive and the focus have been solely on affordability.”
July 15th, 2008 at 6:40 am
Grim, you’ve been awful quiet lately … purchasing a new place, perhaps?
Also, im curious as to your valued opinion on these two posts:
http://njrereport.com/index.php/2008/07/14/short-sale-salvation/#comment-200990
http://njrereport.com/index.php/2008/07/14/short-sale-salvation/#comment-200896
July 15th, 2008 at 6:41 am
grim, in mod?
July 15th, 2008 at 7:07 am
So much for trying to catch a falling knife..
Washington Mutual Drop Wipes Out Most of TPG Holding
TPG Inc.’s plan to profit from Washington Mutual Inc., the biggest U.S. savings and loan, may be sinking with the housing market.
The private-equity firm, led by David Bonderman, anchored a $7 billion cash injection into Washington Mutual in April by purchasing stock at a discount. The Seattle-based lender’s share price has since plummeted, wiping out two-thirds of the investment’s value.
Washington Mutual tumbled to the lowest since 1991 yesterday on the New York Stock Exchange, leading the drop in home lenders after IndyMac Bancorp Inc. was seized last week by U.S. regulators. Bonderman’s firm, which invested $2 billion in Washington Mutual for a 13 percent stake, has been stung by record foreclosures, particularly in California, home to half of the bank’s loans.
July 15th, 2008 at 7:23 am
Why bother about TPG when we have our own Pret and bi?
July 15th, 2008 at 7:24 am
Better buy now before the new restrictions take effect in October!
Otherwise you might never be able to buy!
/sarcasm off
July 15th, 2008 at 7:28 am
James, I hope you’re joking.
July 15th, 2008 at 7:29 am
#10: Couldn’t that be true?
July 15th, 2008 at 7:31 am
more like …
Otherwise you might never want to buy!
July 15th, 2008 at 7:32 am
How about 28% of gross income must cover piti and 36%, total monthly obligations. In addition to this, you must prove that you have available funds for closing and 6 months of emergency funds.
Everything that dies someday comes back.
July 15th, 2008 at 7:32 am
JB [7],
???
July 15th, 2008 at 7:34 am
“Euro records aren’t typos”
“Commentary: Dollar bulls had it wrong underestimating U.S. housing drop”
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/marketwatch-first-take-euro-record/story.aspx?guid=%7BB278544A%2D16A9%2D4CD5%2D9A47%2D8E4967A098DC%7D&dist=hplatest
July 15th, 2008 at 7:37 am
Important enough from tailends of yesterday’s post.
“Asphalt shortage delays CDOT projects”
http://tinyurl.com/5fv3k8
July 15th, 2008 at 7:38 am
A post from Diane:
I work in the transportation field. Have not heard of an asphalt shortage, but the prices are very high now, driving up the cost of construction.
http://www.state.nj.us/transportation/business/trnsport/PriceIndex.shtm
July 15th, 2008 at 7:39 am
curious, if anyone else in th field can sound off on the asphalt shortage and prices, and how its effecting construction projexts??
that would be a good topic of much interest.
thanks,
SAS
July 15th, 2008 at 7:44 am
“Why Fannie and Freddie Have Doomed Housing Prices, Regardless of Bailouts”
http://tinyurl.com/5vs4b3
July 15th, 2008 at 7:45 am
JB - Hope you’re kidding.
Best of luck.
July 15th, 2008 at 7:48 am
Why would anyone joke about that?
July 15th, 2008 at 7:48 am
“Euro soars to $1.60 against U.S. dollar, a new record high”
http://tinyurl.com/65gtxq
July 15th, 2008 at 7:49 am
Sas,
I worked on a road maintenance crew in college filling potholes. Day started off with 30 minutes of poker. Ride to asphalt plant. Stop for breakfast. Get to apshalt plant. Play cards for 30 minutes while waiting in line. Get blacktop and fill pot holes for a couple hours. Long lunch. Back to asphalt plant. 30 minutes of poker. Fill potholes for an hour, dump rest in a ditch, find a secluded road around 3:00 pm and disappear. Play cards for another hour. Return to station. Clean up. Play cards for 30-40 minutes. Call it a day.
This is where I learned my mantra for life “Work a little, take a little break, work a little, take a little break”.
July 15th, 2008 at 7:52 am
“Lehman CEO mulls ways to take bank private: report”
http://tinyurl.com/6lyajp
*there is spin in this article– SAS
“The company has been the subject of false rumors in the past, and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is investigating whether investors have looked to profit by spreading rumors to push down the company’s shares.”
July 15th, 2008 at 7:54 am
From Mish;
“How Much Uninsured Deposits Are At Risk?”
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
July 15th, 2008 at 8:12 am
The rout on the dollar continues. It’s the single most important issue and nobody seems to care. It’s actually quite sad. We allow these thieves to bury our purchasing power. How do you feel every day, knowing that you have to make more just to keep up with a depreciating, dying currency? Our standard of living is decaying and it’s a result of the dollar. Our fed/treasury/govt should be hung out to dry.
The dollar represents the stock of your country. It’s your money, a medium of exchange of payments. While corp ex’s have brought our financial system to its knees, our policy makers have absolutely buried middle America. They have ruined lives. Until the stock of your country appreciates, you will just be spinning like mad hamsters.
July 15th, 2008 at 8:13 am
grim, may not agree with me, but WSJ does.
The $4 Billion Senator July 15, 2008; Page A18
The federal takeover of IndyMac Bank over the weekend could cost the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. between $4 billion and $8 billion. But Senator Chuck Schumer, who helped to precipitate the collapse by publicizing a letter to the bank’s regulator last month, has no remorse.
He was, he says, just doing his job in telling regulators that the bank “could face a collapse,” a prophecy that quickly proved to be self-fulfilling. “It’s what legislators are supposed to do,” the New York Democrat told the Journal. Depositors who spent Monday trying to recover some of their money might beg to differ.
[Charles Schumer]
The Office of Thrift Supervision (OTS), whose job it actually was to regulate IndyMac, took a different view. “The immediate cause of the closing,” the OTS wrote in a press release, “was a deposit run that began and continued after the public release of a June 26 letter to the OTS and the FDIC from Senator Charles Schumer of New York.” The OTS added: “In the following 11 business days, depositors withdrew more than $1.3 billion from their accounts.”
Mr. Schumer now argues that OTS was asleep at the switch, and that blaming him is like blaming “the fire on the guy who called 911.” In fact, it’s blaming the guy who poured on the gasoline. Very few banks, if any, would remain standing for long in the current tense financial environment after a Senator, in effect, told its depositors to run for the exits. In the 1930s, such tipsters were derided as rumormongers and often faced indictment for encouraging depositors to stampede banks.
Only last week, the Securities and Exchange Commission announced an investigation into the role of rumor-peddlers in the run on Bear Stearns. We somehow doubt that Mr. Schumer will receive similar SEC scrutiny for his very similar role in bringing about a liquidity crisis at IndyMac. But he may be more deserving.
Last week, Mr. Schumer’s Senate colleague Chris Dodd took the spotlight to insist that everything was fine, just fine, at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. For how that turned out, see here. In its own way, Mr. Dodd’s declaration was as irresponsible as Mr. Schumer’s, given that its goal was to protect the companies from greater regulatory scrutiny of the kind long proposed by the Bush Administration.
Of course, it is much easier to talk a bank out of existence, as Mr. Schumer has now done, than to talk Fannie and Freddie into solvency. And no one is pretending that IndyMac was untroubled before Mr. Schumer wrote his letter. The bank had suffered heavy losses in its mortgage portfolio and was openly seeking new private capital to shore up its balance sheet.
But Mr. Schumer was not content merely to share his profound concern with regulators. He also leaked the June 26 letter to the press – which is more like shouting “fire” in a crowded bank than dialing 911.
July 15th, 2008 at 8:16 am
Ah, another day of tilling the garden of human misery.
I have noticed lately, though, that every time I call a bank’s loss mit department, I get a ready, willing and cheerful person at the other end of the call.
I think a lot of lenders are about to start approving short sales as fast as they can.
July 15th, 2008 at 8:16 am
“The rout on the dollar continues. It’s the single most important issue and nobody seems to care. It’s actually quite sad”
hear…hear!!
(rules of parliment)
SAS
July 15th, 2008 at 8:19 am
Oil rises above $146 a barrel
http://tinyurl.com/5cjxqk
a weakening of the dollar helped to support commodity prices Tuesday. Many investors view oil and other commodities as hedges against inflation and a weakening dollar, and their prices tend to rise as the currency declines.
July 15th, 2008 at 8:23 am
Re: #2 Grim: This was how it was done in the days of yore. When I applied for my first mortgage in 1987 I had to provide the last 2 years of tax returns, several recent pay stubs, information about my cars (if you had really old cars it would reflect badly, I was told, because they were worried I’d go for a car loan after settlement). They did a net worth calculation and called my employer to verify employment. Since I was only putting 10% down, I had to get private mortgage insurance. Then waited for several weeks nervously hoping I’d get approved, with the mortgage processor calling every few days needing some additional documentation. This all seems so Draconian now, but was once considered SOP for getting a mortgage.
July 15th, 2008 at 8:24 am
Some tibits from a citigroup analyst
To become more constructive on the financial sectors, we would like to see the
following indicators turn positive:
House prices stop falling and housing inventories decline;
The unemployment rate stops rising;
Nonperforming assets/bad loan charge-off ratios stabilize;
Credit card charge-off rates plateau;
Financials stop the endless rounds of equity raises (because they have
enough capital, not because investors go on strike); and
For the brokers, issuance picks up significantly in the junk bond market and
M&A volumes rise.
Unfortunately, these indicators are heading in the wrong direction at present.
Citigroup’s economists expect housing prices to fall 23% from peak to trough, which
implies an additional 8% decline
July 15th, 2008 at 8:26 am
BC (28)-
“The rout on the dollar continues. It’s the single most important issue and nobody seems to care.”
Nobody understands, either. Why take the time to brush up on the simple math required to have some understanding of basic economics, when you need to score Pocono 500 tickets, take advantage of your 2-for-1 WalMart pork rind coupons and find some time to figure out how to activate the I-Phone you wasted a day waiting for?
July 15th, 2008 at 8:28 am
CB {33],
I went thru the same in 1985, They put a scope up your #ss. They made a big issue of one late payment my wife had when she was 18, a monthly membership fee at a gym, 45 days late. They made us twist and turn over that.
July 15th, 2008 at 8:31 am
Thanks for the support everybody..
Turns out that trying to hold down two full-time jobs, a part-time MBA, and being a fanatical blogger might not be compatible with a relationship. But I’m not sure I know any other way to live, I’ve always had big goals and a need to push myself, just who I am. Can’t stop moving forward, so I’ll hold my head up and just keep moving. Am I selfish? Was I wrong? Did I change for the worse somewhere along the way? Was it even me at all? I suppose that it’s tough not to tear yourself apart at times like this.
You know, I considered shutting the blog down a few days back. The “sabbatical” day was particularly rough.
The amazing part of all of this is the support I’ve gotten from friends I haven’t seen in years (6, to be exact). Likewise, thanks to everyone here that has helped me out. That last-minute GTG a few weeks back was a big help for me.
On a happier note, Saturday was a revelation for me, good things to come, I’m looking forward.
Is it weird that I’m sharing this on a blog? Could be worse, could have written a front-page story about it.
July 15th, 2008 at 8:32 am
John [34],
That Citi analyst should have also included that he would like Gisele delivered to his front door tonight.
July 15th, 2008 at 8:32 am
Hope I have time to watch all star game with all this fun going on. Companies set to report later this week include Citigroup Inc. (C), J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM), Bank of New York Mellon Corp. (BK), PNC Financial Services Inc. (PNC), Capital One Financial Corp. (COF), State Street Corp. (STT), Northern Trust Corp. (NTRS), U.S. Bancorp (USB), Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC), Marshall & Ilsley Corp. (MI), Huntington Bancshares Inc. (HBAN) and Zions, according to Thomson StreetEvents.
July 15th, 2008 at 8:33 am
“That last-minute GTG a few weeks back was a big help for me.”
JB,
Let’s have another.
July 15th, 2008 at 8:33 am
7 grim
Awfully sorry
July 15th, 2008 at 8:34 am
Yup dollar is still tanking and Bergabe is testifying for the next two on the hill days about it.
I have been writing our reps, hopefully one will grow a set of nuts.
Ron Paul tried to rip into Kink and Bergabe last week but that lisping thespain from the bay state cut him off.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ritv_YrCJak
July 15th, 2008 at 8:36 am
Awfully sorry
No, no, Good things, nothing down or pessimistic. Life has got a funny way of making things work out for the better.
And it already has.
July 15th, 2008 at 8:37 am
grim (37)-
“Could be worse, could have written a front-page story about it.”
Then, you’d be Casey Serin. Which you are not.
Hang in there. All of us here have your back. Please take time when you need it. There are plenty of us here who can fill the void with our own special brand of drivel.
I- for one- would like to see much more commentary on beer and hot dog joints.
July 15th, 2008 at 8:38 am
OUCH;
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. retail sales rose a disappointing 0.1% in June despite nearly $50 billion in stimulus checks for consumers, Commerce Department data released Tuesday revealed. Sales were boosted by higher prices for gasoline, food and other consumer goods. The figures are seasonally adjusted but are not adjusted for inflation. It was the weakest sales since February’s 0.2% decline. Sales in June were held back by the biggest drop in auto sales in more than two years. By contrast, sales at the malls and shopping centers were relatively healthy, stimulated by the tax rebate checks, Excluding the 3.3% drop in auto sales, sales rose 0.8%, the slowest in three months.
July 15th, 2008 at 8:39 am
OMFG B4 the CC LEH used 2b QT, CB BNKRPT b4 2MORO, xoxo”
July 15th, 2008 at 8:40 am
Grim,
Just went through one and it wasn’t easy but in the end you learn a lot about yourself. Go slow and take care of yourself first is my only advice.
Ps. Be glad you don’t have a mcmansion/condo you overpaid for and had to dump in this lousy market.
July 15th, 2008 at 8:40 am
I- for one- would like to see much more commentary on beer
Spent 6 hours at McSorleys on Sunday, 6 of us in total, I stopped counting after 140 dark.
July 15th, 2008 at 8:40 am
BC (45)-
Isn’t payment on debt a “sale”? ;)
July 15th, 2008 at 8:42 am
Feel the Whoo hoo!™
* To overdraft is human. To waive one is WaMulian. Open WaMu Free Checking™ online
July 15th, 2008 at 8:44 am
Good thing you didn’t buy a house Jim…
July 15th, 2008 at 8:44 am
Trump (50)-
Smells like Northern Rock.
July 15th, 2008 at 8:45 am
From MarketWatch:
U.S. producer prices gain 1.8% in June, energy prices surge
Wholesale prices rose 1.8% in June, after seasonable adjustments, with energy prices gaining 6% and food prices rising 1.5%, the Labor Department reported Tuesday. Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected the producer price index to rise 1.4%. In the past year, the PPI gained 9.2% — the largest change since June 1981, the government said. June’s core PPI — which excludes food and energy prices — rose 0.2%, while economists had expected a 0.3% rise. In the past year, core prices rose 3%.
July 15th, 2008 at 8:45 am
grim (48)-
6 hours in that place might cause genetic damage.
July 15th, 2008 at 8:45 am
#36: Oh yes, I too had a late payment and I had to write an “explanation letter” for the underwriter on why this happened. They were very stern about such shenanigans. Boy, how the world has changed! By the way, I paid $77,000 for the house, a three bedroom single family home, from the builder in a new development here in South Jersey.
Grim: I am very sorry; best of luck to you during these trying times.
July 15th, 2008 at 8:46 am
I.O.U.S.A, coming to cinemas next month. Pete Peterson has now picked it up.
http://www.agorafinancial.com/iousa.html
July 15th, 2008 at 8:46 am
Grim, - I know lots of whores if you get lonely they all live in the 07030 zip code. The only issue with them besides the high mileage is the annoying pocket dogs they all carry.
July 15th, 2008 at 8:46 am
(28) BC Bob - You are my hero!
July 15th, 2008 at 8:48 am
“Spent 6 hours at McSorleys on Sunday”
A GTG location?
July 15th, 2008 at 8:48 am
(37) Grim -
We are who we are…
We love you…
July 15th, 2008 at 8:49 am
Jim,
Sorry about your life upheaval,please keep in mind woman have a tendency to try to change the very characteristics we admired the most, for no other reason then they are inconvenient to us at the moment. Don’t beat yourself up.
KL
July 15th, 2008 at 8:49 am
BC (60)-
Most assuredly.
July 15th, 2008 at 8:49 am
Sean [58],
Lyndhurst?
July 15th, 2008 at 8:53 am
Cindy [59],
At some point there will be a panic out of the US dollar. It will make Bear/Freddie/Indy, etc.., seem like a dress rehearsal.
All Disclaimers.
July 15th, 2008 at 8:53 am
I’ve never been much of a rebound-kind-of-guy. Besides, my boxer would tear apart those little rodents. She’s a rescue out of Irvington who was used to train pit-bulls to fight. Lets just say that she doesn’t put up with yap.
July 15th, 2008 at 8:53 am
#36 BC Bob: We had to write an explanation for a 30 day late Macy’s bill. We were on our honeymoon, and just simply forgot about it.
July 15th, 2008 at 8:58 am
#37 grim: Best of luck to you. I am truly sorry for your pain, but it will pass.
July 15th, 2008 at 8:58 am
Lyndhurst has great places to eat…
Angelo’s, Mr Brunos, Lyndhurst Pastry Shop (Italian Ices), Mazur’s…
July 15th, 2008 at 8:58 am
Grim (37):
“Turns out that trying to hold down two full-time jobs, a part-time MBA, and being a fanatical blogger might not be compatible with a relationship. But I’m not sure I know any other way to live, I’ve always had big goals and a need to push myself, just who I am. Can’t stop moving forward, so I’ll hold my head up and just keep moving. Am I selfish? Was I wrong? Did I change for the worse somewhere along the way? Was it even me at all? I suppose that it’s tough not to tear yourself apart at times like this.”
I have two things to say. First of all, if it was meant to be, then it was meant to be. Speaking from personal experiences, some time apart is the only true way you’ll know where your heart is. By acting on your feelings rather than suppressing them, you can turn what might have been years of guilt into years of bliss. This is no easy task, but it is the best path to follow.
Secondly, a late great philosopher (and professional diver) once said, “You must always look out for #1, and avoid stepping in #2!”
Hang in there buddy. You have more good friends than you know. And probably a few that you may have to end up pursuing restraining orders against. ;)
July 15th, 2008 at 9:02 am
jb-
Hang in there, you know you can call on us if’n you need anything. At the next GTG, your drinks 1 thru 5 are on me….provided you can verify your assets and income;-)
July 15th, 2008 at 9:02 am
#66: Aren’t you afraid the dog will snap one day and bite off a limb?
July 15th, 2008 at 9:03 am
Grim,
Sorry to here that things aren’t working out for you.. It’s a rough process to go through. some rougher than others.. I myself had to go through 2 years of legal Hell. but it was worth it in the end. I’m a much happier person now. Now if only the economy would come out of this slump so I could finish paying for it.
True Friends are always the best way to get through times that are tough and true friends will let you lean as hard as you want to until you can stand on your own.
Good luck.
I know you will have good things happen for you.
July 15th, 2008 at 9:04 am
re:dog
I love Bergen County so much, I named my dog after a town.
http://njrereport.com/images/alpine.jpg
July 15th, 2008 at 9:05 am
#66: Aren’t you afraid the dog will snap one day and bite off a limb?
Nah, she is a lover. Best dog I’ve ever seen with kids. She really just thinks she is a person.
July 15th, 2008 at 9:06 am
Sounds prestigious
July 15th, 2008 at 9:07 am
That is one sorry-ass looking dog.
July 15th, 2008 at 9:07 am
(62) rhyming - so true
Our assets can kick us in the teeth and be our liabilities - two sides of the same coin.
(65) BC Bob
I am such an optimist. I just know there is someone over there who can get a grip on this mess…any day now…they just have to.
July 15th, 2008 at 9:07 am
I think it’s the Boy-George makeup.
July 15th, 2008 at 9:08 am
You know I love that dog, right?
July 15th, 2008 at 9:09 am
BC Bob:
Today could be a pretty ugly one. With the dollar hitting a record low against the Euro, oil probably reaching another record high, and sprinkle in some negative earnings reports such as GM cutting their dividend (they are so done), the only savior may be another Bergabe lie as he testifies on the Hill.
Anyone see the FDIC chairs comments on the safety of U.S. banks. It wreaks of the optimism found in the pre-Great Depression quotes many of us have witnessed as pull out quotes on 1930’s time lines.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080715/fdic_banks.html
July 15th, 2008 at 9:09 am
#44 Re: Drivel. Yeah, Mitchell and I can always talk about the South. (Ducking and covering now:)
Seriously, things do have a way of turning out for the best.
July 15th, 2008 at 9:10 am
Sounds prestigious
Snarky and insulting to the town, just the way I like it. The dog is a complete reject, left for dead. Newark PD brought her into the hospital bleeding, ear almost torn off, bite marks all over her head, neck and front legs. She had been crying on someones porch, no doubt after being dumped when it was clear she had little chance of survival. Not to mind the fact that white boxers are usually killed by the breeders, since pure whites in the line are looked upon negatively. Completely unpedigree and sorry looking. I’ve always been a fan of the underdog.
July 15th, 2008 at 9:12 am
last minute GTG to see DARK NIGHT in IMAX this weekend?????
July 15th, 2008 at 9:16 am
poor dog :(
people can really be disgusting. No regard for life at all.
July 15th, 2008 at 9:16 am
““Alan Greenspan believed in the light hand of regulation. How he put that in place was in not moving at all, and that turns out not to be desirable,” Reinhart said. “So now the government is taking an active role.”
Even more evidence of what a fraud Greenspin is. He repeatedly set interest rates artificially low.
July 15th, 2008 at 9:19 am
grim,
Sorry to hear the news.
July 15th, 2008 at 9:19 am
people can really be disgusting. No regard for life at all.
I think the term is “bait dog”, or at least that is how it was explained to me. They take timid dogs who won’t retaliate and use them to instill confidence in the other dog.
So yes, incredibly brutal.
July 15th, 2008 at 9:22 am
thatBIGwindow, are you vegetarian?
grim, sorry to hear about your situation.
July 15th, 2008 at 9:23 am
#89 grim,
That’s really disgusting. What is wrong with people?
July 15th, 2008 at 9:27 am
90: NNJ - to torture any animal (used for food or not) for personal enjoyment is disgusting.
July 15th, 2008 at 9:27 am
Grim,
Good to hear you are being so positive in tough times - and you do have a few hundred shoulders to lean/cry on if you want to.
Ray
July 15th, 2008 at 9:29 am
92: You really should ‘meet your meat’, will give you new prespective on torture.
July 15th, 2008 at 9:31 am
Grim,
Nice to hear that you remain positive through tough times. Best of luck.
MM
July 15th, 2008 at 9:31 am
Actually a lot of people who separate get back together so this may just be a bump in the road, don’t let it get ugly otherwise you may end up the bump in the road as she drives over you in an SUV.
July 15th, 2008 at 9:33 am
down a 100 in the dow already and it is only 9:33
July 15th, 2008 at 9:33 am
Grim - Hope things work out the best for.
July 15th, 2008 at 9:35 am
If the fed had put in these new regulations a few years ago, we wouldn’t be in as big a mess as we are now. Instead they let neg arms, no docs, and other toxic loans flood the marketplace.
Now banks are taking hundreds of billions in charges, 401k plans are being crushed, and millions of people will lose their jobs because of the contraction of credit and collapse of the dollar.
Thank you Alan Greenspan. Without you $4 gas and 500k pos capes wouldn’t have been possible.
Am I crazy for thinking about stocking up on a few hundred pounds of flour, rice, powdered milk, canned and dried goods?
July 15th, 2008 at 9:35 am
Citigroup
Last [Tick] 14.65[ + ]
Change -0.57
% Change -3.75%
July 15th, 2008 at 9:38 am
anyone catch Ackman on Squawk Box this morning? this hosts were like, “Wait, you’re saying Fannie Mae stock could go to zero?!”
July 15th, 2008 at 9:38 am
#99 Am I crazy for thinking about stocking up on a few hundred pounds of flour, rice, powdered milk, canned and dried goods?
No.
I’m adding a Mini-14 to that list, seriously.
July 15th, 2008 at 9:40 am
grim: a shot for medicinal purposes goes down in respect at 9:45AM
July 15th, 2008 at 9:41 am
Fed adding $9.5 bil in overnight repos.
July 15th, 2008 at 9:44 am
Grim -
Wish you all the very best. The dog came back from almost the dead with the help of good people like you - that is good karma.
July 15th, 2008 at 9:44 am
#25
“I worked on a road maintenance crew in college filling potholes.”
same here. you described it exactly. although sometimes we would drive to the beach and look at girls for a couple of hours as well.
July 15th, 2008 at 9:47 am
Am I crazy for thinking about stocking up on a few hundred pounds of flour, rice, powdered milk, canned and dried goods?
I say we rent a warehouse together and make a project out of this. A serious insurance policy is needed at times like these.
We could start an LLC and have grim and BC be managing partners. I hate partners but for some reason I trust both of them.
July 15th, 2008 at 9:48 am
Ho-Ho-Kus Comp Killer!
SOLD: 19 LAKEWOOD AVE $472,000 9/18/2000
Orig. List: $649,900 11/13/2006
Last List: $487,000 3/26/2008
SOLD: $457,500 7/11/2008
July 15th, 2008 at 9:48 am
I don’t trust BC so much. He would put all our money in gold ;)
July 15th, 2008 at 9:49 am
grim, I’m sorry to hear about your trouble.
There is more I would say, but not here.
Best wishes to both of you.
July 15th, 2008 at 9:49 am
make money Says:
July 15th, 2008 at 9:47 am
Am I crazy for thinking about stocking up on a few hundred pounds of flour, rice, powdered milk, canned and dried goods?
I say we rent a warehouse together and make a project out of this. A serious insurance policy is needed at times like these.
We could start an LLC and have grim and BC be managing partners. I hate partners but for some reason I trust both of them.
I am in. We will need to hire Clot and John as an Armed Guards….
July 15th, 2008 at 9:49 am
“Best dog I’ve ever seen with kids.”
The Little Patients thought so.
July 15th, 2008 at 9:50 am
#37
on the bright side, there are tons of hot chicks in Poland.
July 15th, 2008 at 9:50 am
Yahoo Finance Headlines:
* Euro Soars to Record High of $1.60 Against Dollar- AP
* Analyst Warns on Wachovia Amid More Bank Worries- AP
* GM to Cut Salaried Workers, Production, Dividend- AP
* Retail sales Edge Up Slight 0.1 Percent in June- AP
* Oil Rises Above $146 a Barrel- AP
* Fannie-Freddie Lifeline Puts Taxpayers on the Hook- AP
* Wholesale Prices Rise by Sharp 1.8 Percent in June- AP
* J&J Profit Beats Forecast, But Drug Sales Dim- Reuters
* FDIC Chair: Deposits in Nation’s Banks are Safe- AP
And people call us Gloom and Doom?
July 15th, 2008 at 9:51 am
Grim,
I don’t remember if you have kids or not. If not, it’s much easier. My brother is in a situation where whatever direction he takes, it will be an ugly road…staying with her in purgatory or living in the hills in Bedminster while she gets the big house and he pays for it all with visitation.
All I can say is follow your heart. If doing all your things are more important to you than your marriage, then so be it. Just make sure you don’t do anything that you will regret down the road.
July 15th, 2008 at 9:54 am
Can someone provide me the history of this property? MLS# 2814439
Thanks in advance.
July 15th, 2008 at 9:56 am
Franklin Lakes FUTURE Comp Killer!
SOLD: 476 PULIS AVE $430,000 7/5/2005
MLS#: 2829458 (Short sale)
Orig. List: $619,900 9/4/2005 (Renovated!)
Last List: $399,000 7/14/2008
July 15th, 2008 at 9:57 am
Freddie, Fanny and Wachovia are in freefall. C is in the 114s.
July 15th, 2008 at 10:00 am
[43] Sounds like you didn’t get your first invoice for legal services.
July 15th, 2008 at 10:00 am
$399,000 for Franklin Lakes???? wow…
July 15th, 2008 at 10:00 am
Freddie, Fanny and Wachovia are in freefall. C is in the 114s.
Did I mention that I love Jim Rogers for calling Hanks bluf.
He said FU Hank, you of all people should know better, I’m short and staying short. What are you gonna do about it?
apparently he can’t do jack.
July 15th, 2008 at 10:02 am
#96, I actually agree with John. I hope it works out for you Jim and besides its always ‘cheaper to keep her’
July 15th, 2008 at 10:02 am
http://www.nomarriage.com/
July 15th, 2008 at 10:04 am
I’m closing today after being homeless for 1 year.
I figured when I sold at the top, anytime I bought after the market started droping would be great.
Only time will tell.
July 15th, 2008 at 10:05 am
#128 jam: figured when I sold at the top, anytime I bought after the market started droping would be great.
?????
July 15th, 2008 at 10:06 am
#124 tbw $399,000 for Franklin Lakes???? wow…
And you thought it could not happen. Oh Ye of little faith.
July 15th, 2008 at 10:07 am
#118 Stu: don’t you know according to reinvestor, we are the casue of all of this?
July 15th, 2008 at 10:09 am
#112 Rich: So they owned the hosue for 8 years,a nd did nto make a dime
So much for real estate always goes up.
July 15th, 2008 at 10:09 am
3b: new ranch just came on the market in RE on Valley $439,000. Estate, Concrete backyard, but clean looking house.
Townhouses on Kinderkamack still on the market.
July 15th, 2008 at 10:11 am
[129] I sold a 2 bedroom cape in a third/fourth tier town last summer for more than that Franklin Lakes home is going for now.
July 15th, 2008 at 10:11 am
3b (131):
Yeah. Bernanke had nothing on it.
July 15th, 2008 at 10:12 am
grim,
Good luck!
July 15th, 2008 at 10:12 am
Dow down 200.
July 15th, 2008 at 10:13 am
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aakESFNZea0c&refer=home
Bernanke Sees Growth Risks, `Intensified’ Inflation Danger
He cited higher energy prices, reduced access to credit and a further deepening in the housing recession as dangers to growth. At the same time, he said: “We must be particularly alert to any indications, such as an erosion of longer-term inflation expectations, that the inflationary impulses from commodity prices are becoming embedded” in setting wages and prices.
Rate Decision
The comments are Bernanke’s first on monetary policy and the economic outlook since the Federal Open Market Committee’s June 25 decision to leave the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2 percent, pausing after seven cuts totaling 3.25 percentage points since September.
Ecxonomists supposed to be educated and smart. Why don’t they see inflation as huge worry - NOTHING destroys acomony as surelly as high inflation.
Why don’t we learn on other’s mistakes (or on our own in the past) - but again than there would be no Iraq war, So I guess I do ask for too much - as long ans Bankers and Pols are getting richer - $crew everybody else.
As I stated couple of years ago - I think current situation is Deliberate and Well Planned effort towards destruction of middle class in USA.
July 15th, 2008 at 10:13 am
wow Citi at 14.38
July 15th, 2008 at 10:13 am
Not to worry, the fed is steering the ship;
“Inflation worries predominate at the Fed”
“The potential for runaway price hikes is the top concern of Federal Reserve policymakers, according to testimony by Fed chairman Ben Bernanke and the accompanying report on the economic outlook of his colleagues on the central bank released Tuesday.”
[Edit] Why do I picture Animal House, B#llsheeeeeet, B#llsheeeeet.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/inflation-worries-trump-other-concerns/story.aspx?guid=%7BCC4A7C42%2DB6F0%2D4A9E%2D98AF%2DEC3D72CF61F7%7D&tool=1&dist=bigcharts&
July 15th, 2008 at 10:13 am
#124 And you are buying 1 year later?
July 15th, 2008 at 10:14 am
Sean,
Please give me your email address :))
July 15th, 2008 at 10:15 am
#133 tbw: I Saw that, also anotehr one yesterday came on the market I belive it is on Howland or aroudn that area, for $392k, it is bank owned.
July 15th, 2008 at 10:16 am
#140 BC Bob,
Instead of jawboning, why doesn’t Bergabe raise rates 50 bips?
The housing market is already toast. If having an arm reset 50 bips higher is going to bust a homeowner, they would most likely go bust anyway.
July 15th, 2008 at 10:16 am
#133 And yes the town houses are still on the market, as well as the historical house.
July 15th, 2008 at 10:16 am
JB, Good luck with everything!
July 15th, 2008 at 10:18 am
Skep-tic #130
Ackerman was doing a reverse pump and dump. Nothing like kicking down a stock when you have a huge short position.
Grim-
Sorry for your personal troubles.
It is far easier to fall in love than stay in love. I hope it all works out for the both of you.
July 15th, 2008 at 10:19 am
“lovely historical house” currently on the market but he managed to rent it out in the interim…I wonder how much per month in rent that is?
July 15th, 2008 at 10:19 am
I think Fed doesn’t care about inflation because they know wages are not going higher and housing costs are going lower, so in their view, inflation is contained.
July 15th, 2008 at 10:21 am
#147
NJCoast– I’m sure Ackerman’s motives aren’t pure, but his proposal sounds a heck of a lot better than anything else I’ve heard re: the GSEs. If he can convince the gov’t to go this route, he deserves to make a lot of money off it in my view
July 15th, 2008 at 10:22 am
We need rates in 6-8 right now - economy is toast anyways, housing is toast as well… NO matter what market will price-in 6% energy inflation in June (thats 72% yearly!!!!!!!!!) and by New year mortgage rates will be at least 8-9%.
Oil will hit 200$ this year. Back in winter I predicted 150$ this year - I am getting a lot more pessimistic.
But look at the bright side - with all entitlements increasing by oficial CPI and treasuries at low rates we are very efffciently solving medicare/SS crisis and getting rid of national debt!!!
July 15th, 2008 at 10:24 am
SKF like a rocket in the last 4 days of trading, where is Bi? We need him to recommend some other sectors? How about consumer discretionary Bi? What do you think Bi?
July 15th, 2008 at 10:26 am
I see our Chimpanzee-in-Chief has a news conference coming up.
He scares me when he starts talking about a “rough patch” (I think it means something different in Texas)
July 15th, 2008 at 10:27 am
The paranoid part of my mind thinks that is is yet another wealth consolidation tactic. Because holding property is the true form of making long term wealth.
All the truly very comfortable people I know have large holdings of RE. In a year or two it may be time to start acquiring an RE position.
I think you’ve been watching too many Carlton Sheets infomercials.
Correlation does not imply causation.
The people who own RE own it because they are “wealthy”. They are not wealthy because they own RE.
July 15th, 2008 at 10:28 am
“The housing market is already toast. If having an arm reset 50 bips higher is going to bust a homeowner, they would most likely go bust anyway.”
bairen,
Despite what they want us to believe, the fed only cares about its member banks. They are trying to steepen the yield curve. This is the tonic that they are ordering. It’s helps turn idiot bankers into geniuses.
July 15th, 2008 at 10:30 am
Moodys downgrades FNM & FRE financial health, long term debt still AAA.
DJUSHB at lifetime lows.
July 15th, 2008 at 10:31 am
Grim,
Sorry to hear about your troubles. Sounds like you have the proper perspective to work it out. Always a bit tough to focus when other things weigh on your mind. In the end talking honestly and being open and true to yourself will be the best guide for where you should end up.
As for the talks about “bait dogs”, July 3rd was the anniversary our dog was stolen out of a backyard in Queens 3 years ago. He wasn’t the friendliest dog to everyone, but he loved us and us him. Cops told us every summer there are 30-40 dogs stolen out of people’s yards in the area. They said possibly used in the fighting ring. Not exactly what you want to hear about the dog you raised for 7 years. Glad to hear your pup ended up in a good situation. I hope the same for mine. We miss you old friend.
July 15th, 2008 at 10:31 am
Grim: One door closes for another to open. Not saying it’s easy. The new opening might even be the old one, with new insights from both sides. Don’t be too eager to jump ship.
Best of luck to you both.
July 15th, 2008 at 10:35 am
Grim
You can always get a hold of me if you need to. If I can’t try to help someone whos helped me, what kind of person am I?
BTW I am good for a gtg tonight or tomorrow night. Going away Thurs. to Deliverance land. I hope my friends aren’t taking us there to kill us. :)
July 15th, 2008 at 10:37 am
I’m gonna go out on a limb here and offer a suggestion. Albanian women!!!They tend to listen instead of just talk.
July 15th, 2008 at 10:38 am
Oh boy, this makes me feel confident..
From MarketWatch:
Bush: Banking system is basically sound
Basically…
July 15th, 2008 at 10:40 am
Dodd to Bernanke: “How can we spend more money that doesn’t exist?”
July 15th, 2008 at 10:43 am
Bush: Banking system is basically sound
Captain of the Titanic to Base: Ah, we are basically still afloat.
July 15th, 2008 at 10:44 am
#148 tbw; And it has no windows on the back and sides;simply delightful.
July 15th, 2008 at 10:44 am
[7] Ouch. sorry to hear it.
I think we need a Grim Appreciation GTG next.
{if it has been proposed, I apologize for the redundancy}
July 15th, 2008 at 10:46 am
Bernanke - Concerned less about solvency than ability to extend credit.
July 15th, 2008 at 10:48 am
RE #121 124 132 134…Pulis Ave in Franklin Lakes is the main drag and gets a ton of traffic. I will be some of that trafic as I drive by today and take a look…there are still a few small/modest houses in Franklin lakes..the one my (old)neighbor just bought is NOT one of them…they pd a cool 2.685 million for their new house…their old house across the street from me will quaintly be remembered as their starter house… it will sell for 1 million+
July 15th, 2008 at 10:49 am
Wait a sec. Is ‘Overlords’ below a typo or intentional copyright infringement? I here clarify again that any thing ‘lord’-related, i.e. landlord/slumlord/overlords etc. are copyright protected.
Any violation in this blog of above copyright will be prosecuted to the full extend of the laws!!!
> Title I, “For One, Welcome Our New Mortgage Overlords”
July 15th, 2008 at 10:51 am
JB,
Sorry to hear about your situation.
I think things always happen for the better and you pretty much have most of your life ahead of you to make the choices you want. This is something which most of us can only dream of !
Come to think of it, you are probably the most eligible bachelor around, at least in the New York metro area ;-). You will always have our support.
Good luck with your future plans.
-AntiTrump.
July 15th, 2008 at 10:51 am
[60] BC
McSoreley’s GTG? I am so in. But is that a good place to get Grim good and wrecked???? I seem to recall their offerings were limited.
July 15th, 2008 at 10:52 am
Deflation, here we come. Bernanke does not have a clue how to prevent that from happening. This is what happens when you pump too much money into system. Everybody becomes an Einsteen overnight by fliiping real estate. Sooner or later, the system breaks and we have a problem
July 15th, 2008 at 10:54 am
#167 Laurie:it will sell for 1 million+
it wills ell if the owners get the financing, or of course if they oay cash,a nd money is no objetc. I personally cannto see how any one can feel good about buing ahosue today, with allt hat is going on, unless, again, money is no object.
As far as that house being on a busy street, that well may be, but it still is Franklin lakes, and a couple of years ago I bet it would have sold for 500+.
Point is if prices are dropping in Franklin Lakes, they are dropping everywhere.
July 15th, 2008 at 10:54 am
Here in euro land we’ve seen costs nearly double in dollar terms. My monthly rent went from $1,200 to $2,000. Had dinner at an inexpensive (by euro standards) Italian resturant last night; two pizzas, two glasses of wine and two cups of coffee - $50! Whenever I hear the nimrods on CNBC yap about how this is good for exports I just tell myself that when the dollar goes to zero we can export everythign to everybody, right?
Still, it’s only money.
July 15th, 2008 at 10:57 am
[174] DL
Problem is, we don’t manufacture and export anything the world wants except agriculture and coal.
July 15th, 2008 at 10:59 am
this is interesting:
http://www.theonion.com/content/news/recession_plagued_nation_demands
July 15th, 2008 at 10:59 am
Problem is, we don’t manufacture and export anything the world wants except agriculture and coal.
Turns out manufacturing dollars and shipping them overseas in returned containers wasn’t a fiscally prudent model.
July 15th, 2008 at 10:59 am
Ok Ok…yet another one of our neighbors (geez what is it about this neighborhood?)has their POS split for sale. Original price was $799..crazy just crazy…anyway thru price reductions it is finally where it needs to be @ $699….of course they lost the entire spring selling season. A house purchased in the next month or so won’t close till Oct or even later..so no one with kids wants to close after school starts and right when you are gearing up for the holidays…but these are really the nicest people and I feel badly for them.I wonder if it will finally move at $699…surrounding value is much higher, house 2 doors down went for $910 almost immediately
July 15th, 2008 at 11:03 am
#174 DL
Same thing happed to us when we lived in Australia. When we moved to Sydney it was 59 cents to the Aussie dollar, when we left last year it was about 88 cents to the Aussie dollar. Toss in 20% increase in prices over 3.5 years and our cost of living almost doubled.
On the bright side it was good training for what’s coming to the US.
July 15th, 2008 at 11:06 am
what if we just defaulted like Russia? clean slate
July 15th, 2008 at 11:06 am
Oil way down ….almost $8
July 15th, 2008 at 11:07 am
Just heard Bernanke testify that “everything the Fed does is to protect the welfare of the average American.” With a straight face, no less.
July 15th, 2008 at 11:23 am
Laurie (167),
Yes, Pulis is a busy thorofare.
But that aside, someone in 2005 not only thought it was worth $430,000 but thought it would be worth $619,000 after dumping in more money and totally renovating the place. Now it’s listed for $399,000
And here’s the kicker, it’s in the same location today as it was in 2005.
July 15th, 2008 at 11:26 am
Oil way down ….almost $8
Now oil is down $9
July 15th, 2008 at 11:26 am
Note to Sellers of GSMLS#: 2548866 21 Hawthorne Place, Montclair. Ask price $469,900k
Good luck to you. Friends of ours sold the identical townhouse next door to you for $415k after 2 price reductions several months ago.
Keep dreaming. Hold out for your magic price. We look forward to having you as neighbors for a long time to come.
July 15th, 2008 at 11:26 am
John, #46
Translation, please?
Who’s bankrupt?
July 15th, 2008 at 11:28 am
MarketWatch: CRUDE OIL SLIDES MORE THAN $9 TO TRADE BELOW $140 A BARREL
Wow! Bi was right!
Oh wait, I didn’t see the 1 before the 4.
July 15th, 2008 at 11:30 am
#176 Ricky-nu: That article was too stinkin’ funny; thanks for posting. Just one gem:
“Demand for a new investment bubble began months ago, when the subprime mortgage bubble burst and left the business world without a suitable source of pretend income.”
July 15th, 2008 at 11:30 am
Headline from the Wall St Journal
Crude-oil prices plunged below $139 a barrel, helping turn around stocks after an early dive caused by lingering concern about the nation’s banks. OPEC said it sees signs of weakening demand for fuel in the months ahead.
“Lingering concern about the nation’s banks.”
Lingering? Lingering !!!!
July 15th, 2008 at 11:32 am
“Lingering”
as in, lingering outside a locked door, waiting for your money
July 15th, 2008 at 11:36 am
At 10:05 a.m. (1405 GMT), the Canadian currency was at
US$1.0002
July 15th, 2008 at 11:47 am
Sen. Bunning schooling Bernanke:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=793876610&play=1
July 15th, 2008 at 11:48 am
re #185
If I remember that house correctly it is also set way off of Pulis. In a normal town with normal lot sizes, it would have been the second or third house from the corner
July 15th, 2008 at 11:49 am
“the Canadian currency was at US$1.0002′
EH.
July 15th, 2008 at 11:51 am
39#, John, check out STT today, up 10% in a down market. i am loading up financials.
Hope I have time to watch all star game with all this fun going on. Companies set to report later this week include Citigroup Inc. (C), J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM), Bank of New York Mellon Corp. (BK), PNC Financial Services Inc. (PNC), Capital One Financial Corp. (COF), State Street Corp. (STT), Northern Trust Corp. (NTRS), U.S. Bancorp (USB), Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC), Marshall & Ilsley Corp. (MI), Huntington Bancshares Inc. (HBAN) and Zions, according to Thomson StreetEvents.
July 15th, 2008 at 11:55 am
bi:
How did your last short term long the financials go?
July 15th, 2008 at 11:58 am
OK, people dont rip me apart to badly, but please feel free to point out any stupidity on my part.
I have been considering a “housing plan” and am interested in any feed back the board cares to share:
First my premise is that in the next 2-4 years we are going to see an energy crisis that matches the 70’s as a best case scenario. At the same time the US economy is toast, due to the devaluing of the dollar, rising unemployment and what will be an unexpected linkage between energy food and banks, where all 3 take serious hits.
I have access to a VA Loan and am considering building in the next 12 months. I have a preliminary construction estimate (From 2 prospective builders) of 200 - 250K, including a 15% over-run buffer. my target is to spend no more then 100K on the property. My target property is something more rural such as towards sparta. Location is flexible (with a preference towards southern sussex or someplace with reasonable access to 287) with the requirements being south facing and a lot size of at least .5 acres but a preference of 1+. My target for taxes is 6K or under.
here are the numbers i ran (30 yrs @ 3 % & 6K taxes)
principle $300,000 $350,000
mortgage payment $1,264.81 $1,475.61
PITI $2,064.81 $2,383.95
Tax Adjusted Monthly housing expense Including Maint. $1,465.92 $1,685.24
(housing cost would be approx 20% of income)
my family currently has a net income between 150 - 200K w/ approx 20K in total debt (single digit total interest rate). i would be able to put 10% down by Dec. The plan would be to stay in the house for at least 5 - 7 years or longer unless life dictates otherwise.
The house would be about 90% off-grid
Perhaps i am being overly pessimistic, but i think that the next year may be the last window of opportunity for a while due to economic and social issues culminating
so how about a sanity check.
July 15th, 2008 at 12:01 pm
Sorry to hear about this, grim. I thank the fates every day that I have a spouse who realizes that writing my blog is as necessary as breathing for me and he needs a fair amount of personal space too. Not everyone can do that. You (and she) will get through this, hopefully without too much bitterness on either side.
July 15th, 2008 at 12:02 pm
Last minute GTG to see the Dark Knight in Imax this weekend.
July 15th, 2008 at 12:02 pm
so much for light volume trading in the summer with everyone on vacation!! this stock market action today is ridiculous. anyone that thinks they can predict short-term directions of the market is lying to themselves. what the hell is the explanation for the huge dump in oil??
July 15th, 2008 at 12:07 pm
Kettle1,
You are to the energy arena what Roubini is to the economy. You are both perma bears. I tend to be a bear as well (as you already know), but I am well aware of how noise can cloud your rational thought processes. If you are building this house to say, “I told you so,” well that is the wrong reason. If you can afford it as a hobby, then what the heck, do it. Personally, I feel that if what you are predicting becomes a reality, you are better off just buying a prebuilt home for pennies on the dollar and then upgrading it to be grid free. Lord knows, there will be a lot of starving contractors then.
If I may be blunt, you are all wrapped up in this energy thing. You want to be a first adopter, but at what expense? We put up a windmill at my college to find out that with the amount of maintenance it required, no amount of wind would make it break even. Let everyone else figure it out and then install the windmill when it is being sold by Tyco.
That’s my 2 cents.
Of course if you do decide to build it and Armageddon hits, I would love to rent your guest room.
July 15th, 2008 at 12:08 pm
“what the hell is the explanation for the huge dump in oil??”
Bi called a top at $68. It’s now resonating throughout world markets.
July 15th, 2008 at 12:08 pm
bairen 99
i already have 3 months worth stocked
oh sry about the dark knight double post
July 15th, 2008 at 12:10 pm
kettle1
Do those figures include 40k or so for setting up solar? Also do they factor in the cost of clearing and grading the land? Are there fees for hooking up to the infrasructure?
Do you ever watch planetgreen channel? Seems like their budgets go way over 15% cost overruns for remodels and building.
July 15th, 2008 at 12:12 pm
fannie mae just got authorized to do conforming mortgages on GMC SUVs in excess of 5,000 pounds
July 15th, 2008 at 12:20 pm
Stu,
thanks for the input.
I would build earth sheltered. Its something i have wanted to do for a while, since before i became an energy bull. That alone cuts a significant portion of energy consumption. heating is covered by solar thermal and there would be a small solar electric array to start that i would add to over time as cash allowed.
The numbers i have run have a payback on the energy related tech being 6- 10 years depending on what happens in energy markets.
my rent is currently 1800 a month, so when considering tax adjusted monthly costs, it seems to be a competitive idea.
Once againi, while i am indeed the rubini of energy, it is much more then energy that has me concerned, from BC’s dollar to food supply chains (a topic i have only touched on a little bit here)
July 15th, 2008 at 12:22 pm
#199
Did you say 3% interest rate?
“30 yrs @ 3 %”
July 15th, 2008 at 12:26 pm
# bairen Says:
July 15th, 2008 at 12:10 pm
kettle1
Do those figures include 40k or so for setting up solar? Also do they factor in the cost of clearing and grading the land? Are there fees for hooking up to the infrasructure?
Do you ever watch planetgreen channel? Seems like their budgets go way over 15% cost overruns for remodels and building.
My construction estimates to date include clearing the land as well as any earth works that may need to be done. The solar thermal will be paid for in cash and the solar electric will be financed.
15% is my target as i have managed several pharma projects of higher complexity and been able to stay under budget. I have also build several contingency scenarios for cost analysis.
July 15th, 2008 at 12:26 pm
#199
Did you say 3% interest rate?
“30 yrs @ 3 %”
If you can raise capital at 3% take it immediately. It’s a no brainer. Inflation will wipe out your $1500 and your mortgage will cost a lot less then you think. (real cost).
July 15th, 2008 at 12:28 pm
Stu,
you also hit on my core dilemma. if i am not overly pessimistic then i will benefit by acting in the near future. But if i am wrong, will my actions end up causing a substantial or significant negative impact?
This i suppose is the core question that i am not sure how to answer.
Grim. we are all here for you!
July 15th, 2008 at 12:30 pm
i have spoken to grim and to 2 other RE people who have all suggested that i could pull 3% at the moment with a VA loan. havent spoken to the banks yet though, so 3% ???? thats what the info i have tells me.
Clott can you weigh in on the matter?
July 15th, 2008 at 12:32 pm
3%, DO IT! That is amazing.
July 15th, 2008 at 12:33 pm
VA & FHA offer 3% down, not rate
KL
July 15th, 2008 at 12:36 pm
VA & FHA offer 3% down, not rate
BINGO. not that sounds resonable.
July 15th, 2008 at 12:36 pm
3% = 13%
Home prices will fall 10% in next year so you paid 3% interest for the right to lose 10% which equals -13%
Kinda like zero down financing on an SUV that falls 25% in value..
July 15th, 2008 at 12:38 pm
people need money and jobs to buy heating oil and fuel.
The spigot has run dry. we will have a bunch of unemployed people in sweaters sitting at home come Jan with nowhere to go.
July 15th, 2008 at 12:40 pm
todays’s oil action is prelude for gold in next few days. watch out.
July 15th, 2008 at 12:43 pm
“todays’s oil action is prelude for gold in next few days. watch out.”
bi,
What do you do if you are hedged, gold?
July 15th, 2008 at 12:44 pm
Mugabe runs out of Monopoly money
http://tinyurl.com/687egv
“Zimbabwe is about to run out of the paper to print money on.”
July 15th, 2008 at 12:49 pm
#210 kettle1
Your project sounds interesting, but have you considered resale value? (I can’t believe I asked that)
Seriously though, if you make your home so unique would anyone want to buy it? Going solar and building green is one thing, but earth sheltered might be too extreme for a lot of New Jerseyans.
July 15th, 2008 at 12:51 pm
Oil is at $139. The economy has fully recovered. Let’s all run out and by a Hummer.
Yehaw!
July 15th, 2008 at 12:54 pm
My idea of green would be to put pine trees up on my north and west exposure. Maybe connect a house to my downspouts and prick a few holes in it to water the garden. A Prius isn’t even cost effective…now unless you plan to live in that cave forever, you’ll never be able to sell it and it will take a lifetime to recover your initial energy investment.
July 15th, 2008 at 1:02 pm
“Stu Says:
July 15th, 2008 at 12:51 pm
Oil is at $139. The economy has fully recovered. Let’s all run out and by a Hummer.
Yehaw!”
Sean has numbers in 07030 you can call.
July 15th, 2008 at 1:04 pm
ha ha
July 15th, 2008 at 1:06 pm
3% = 13%
Home prices will fall 10% in next year so you paid 3% interest for the right to lose 10% which equals -13%
Kinda like zero down financing on an SUV that falls 25% in value..
John,
You forgot to add the cost of rising commodities. Whicj will rise a heck more than 13%.
You know you need materials to build.
July 15th, 2008 at 1:06 pm
Kettle1:
Take that 3% loan, build your house out of gold and melt it down 2 years from now and pay off the loan early. Then build your econocave with the gains, plus the technology will be much better proven.
July 15th, 2008 at 1:11 pm
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Christopher Cox, chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, proposed limits on short selling of shares in Fannie Mae. A spokesman for the SEC didn’t immediately return a phone call seeking comment on Tuesday. Short selling is a way to bet against securities. Fannie and Freddie shares have slumped roughly 70% in the past month
July 15th, 2008 at 1:14 pm
I bought a lottery ticket and went to Starbucks today. I feel more connected than I have in months.
But now my stimulus check is gone.
July 15th, 2008 at 1:14 pm
I propose limits on buying long in any of the financials.
July 15th, 2008 at 1:15 pm
Kettle1:
Take that 3% loan, build your house out of gold and melt it down 2 years from now and pay off the loan early. Then build your econocave with the gains, plus the technology will be much better proven.
You’re runniing the risk of the Feds confiscating your home.
Kettle,
Like I said if you can raise capital at 3% do it. You’re PITI si only 20% of income and you’ll be Energy crisis proof.
What more do you want?
July 15th, 2008 at 1:16 pm
make [229],
Govt intervention/manipulation will drive a stake thru this market. Where were the limits back in the late 90’s when worthless pos stocks were selling for over 100? Where were the limits on flippers?
Pathetic socialism.
July 15th, 2008 at 1:16 pm
Grim,
Please moderate {232}
July 15th, 2008 at 1:19 pm
For some reason I keep picturing Bush, Paulson and Bernakee slurping on a big gulp and humming the tune in Juno while wearing matching dumpy sweatshirts instead of the suit wearing all night boardroom meetings the press makes us believe takes place on sundays nights after a bad week in the market.
July 15th, 2008 at 1:20 pm
“Please moderate {232}”
I’m also in mod at 232.
July 15th, 2008 at 1:21 pm
Your a funny guy, we have several million empty homes and you think someone is going to get a loan to build one more.
John,
You forgot to add the cost of rising commodities. Whicj will rise a heck more than 13%.
You know you need materials to build.
July 15th, 2008 at 1:22 pm
bairen,
no, you’re not crazy. I bought a bunch of rice and a bunch of flour a few months ago. The price doubled at the supermarket since then. I made out pretty well.
July 15th, 2008 at 1:22 pm
I heard of sarbox but will this be sorecox?
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Christopher Cox, chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, proposed limits on short selling of shares in Fannie Mae. A spokesman for the SEC didn’t immediately return a phone call seeking comment on Tuesday. Short selling is a way to bet against securities. Fannie and Freddie shares have slumped roughly 70% in the past month
July 15th, 2008 at 1:23 pm
Faux News just reported that Israel uncovered a plot to kill former English Prime Minister Tony Blair. I didn’t hear why or who was plotting.
July 15th, 2008 at 1:24 pm
Heres the link:
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,382667,00.html
July 15th, 2008 at 1:24 pm
#229
this is pretty humiliating. paulson/bernanke thought they could ride to the rescue of the GSEs but nobody is buying it. so now we hastily move one step closer to pure central planning.
July 15th, 2008 at 1:28 pm
Grim-
Truly sorry to hear your news. As many people have said above, this might be the best for both of you, especially since you don’t have kids or own a home yet.
If there’s anything you think I can help you with, please let me know.
Best of luck. I’ll buy the first round or two if there’s a McSorley’s GTG.
July 15th, 2008 at 1:32 pm
thanks for the sanity check :)
July 15th, 2008 at 1:36 pm
Pathetic socialism.
BC,
That’s exactly what it is. Everyone is focused on fighting/alleviating the symptoms and no one wants to cure the disease.
Forget cure, they don’t even want to talk about the disease.
July 15th, 2008 at 1:36 pm
grim please unmoderate {245}
July 15th, 2008 at 1:46 pm
Saddle Brook FUTURE Comp Killer!
SOLD: 86 PLATT AVE $700,000 10/10/2006
MLS#: 2829465
Orig. List: $825,000 5/1/2007
Last List: $689,000 7/14/2008 (actually since 11/27/2007)
July 15th, 2008 at 1:46 pm
July 15 (Bloomberg) — Oppenheimer & Co.’s Meredith Whitney, the analyst who correctly predicted Citigroup Inc. would reduce its dividend this year, said the earnings outlook for Wachovia Corp. has “dramatically diminished” and bank stocks will keep falling until asset prices “get real.”
Wachovia fell as much as 13 percent in New York trading after Whitney said prospects for shareholders of the Charlotte, North Carolina-based bank are “bleak.” Mortgage assets are still priced too high on U.S. banks’ balance sheets, she said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601213&sid=aAuesKViEFRI&refer=home