Fri 18 Jul 2008
Happy Recession Hour GTG (Get Together)
Friday, July 18th 5:30pm
Johnny Utah’s ( http://www.johnnyutahs.com )
25 West 51st Street, NY
Cancel your f’n plans, I don’t want to hear excuses.
———————————
This is the time and place to post observations about your local areas, comments on news stories or the New Jersey housing market, open house reports, etc. If you have any questions you wanted to ask earlier in the week but never posted them up, let’s have them. Also a good place to post suggestions, requests for information, criticism, and praise.
For readers that have never commented, there is a link at the top of each message that is typically labelled “[#] Comments“. Go ahead and give that a click, you might be missing out on a world of information you didn’t know about. While you are there, introduce yourselves to everyone.
For new readers that have only read the messages displayed on the main page, take a look through the archives, a substantial amount of information has been put online in the past year. The archives can be accessed by using the links found in the menus on the right hand side of the page.
July 18th, 2008 at 6:07 am
I’m first! Yay! And still renting!
July 18th, 2008 at 6:12 am
Should be an interesting day, at the beach that is…..
July 18th, 2008 at 6:13 am
2nd. Yay! And still renting!
July 18th, 2008 at 6:13 am
It’s going to be a long day. I need a drink.
July 18th, 2008 at 6:14 am
Only the beginning…
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aNP69YwhVTR0&refer=home
July 18th, 2008 at 6:30 am
http://www.philly.com/philly/hp/news_update/20080718_Bandits_were_so_hungry_they_could_steal_a_horse_.html
Happy Friday.
July 18th, 2008 at 6:43 am
http://www.recordonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080718/NEWS/807180341
June unemployment and job-growth figures released Thursday by the New York State Department of Labor paint a dim picture.
July 18th, 2008 at 6:46 am
http://www.dailyrecord.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080717/BUSINESS/807170316
New Jersey’s unemployment rate inched down one-tenth of a point to 5.3 percent in June, but the state lost more than 4,000 jobs.
July 18th, 2008 at 6:49 am
Sorry if this was posted earlier.
From NY Times:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/13/realestate/13njzo.html?_r=1&ref=realestate&oref=slogin
July 18th, 2008 at 6:58 am
http://www.nypost.com/seven/07182008/business/at_ubs_secret_is_out_120462.htm
July 18th, 2008 at 7:03 am
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/florida/story/608682.html
“In the information filed with his June 19 plea agreement, Birkenfeld outlined some of the methods the bank used and some of his activities, including purchasing diamonds abroad and then concealing them in a toothpaste tube to smuggle them to his U.S. client.”
‘
Couldn’t he have stated that he was simply cleaning the diamonds?
July 18th, 2008 at 7:09 am
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?sid=aoyCaK0Tc63A&pid=20601087
The rules, which apply to 159 banks with at least $2 billion in U.S. deposits and either $20 billion in assets or 250,000 account holders, start Aug. 18, the Washington-based regulator said in a notice to banks published yesterday on the FDIC Web site.
July 18th, 2008 at 7:18 am
Citi lost 2.5 billion. Took 7.2 billion in write downs.
July 18th, 2008 at 7:19 am
From MarketWatch:
Citigroup swings to loss on $7.2 billion write-down
Citigroup, the largest U.S. bank by assets, said on Friday that it lost money for the third consecutive quarter after writing down $7.2 billion of investments related to fixed income weakness and consumer credit woes.
July 18th, 2008 at 7:26 am
From the WSJ:
Mortgage Giant Freddie Mac
Considers Major Stock Sale
Issue of Up to $10 Billion
Would Aim to Stave Off Rescue Plan
By JAMES R. HAGERTY, MONICA LANGLEY and SUSAN PULLIAM
July 18, 2008; Page A1
Mortgage giant Freddie Mac — emboldened by emergency regulatory actions that have triggered a two-day rebound in its battered stock — is considering raising capital by selling as much as $10 billion in new shares to investors, according to people familiar with the matter.
The high-stakes maneuver would have the potential to avoid a full-blown government rescue for Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, twin keystones of the U.S. housing market. The publicly traded, government-sponsored companies own or guarantee about $5.2 trillion of home mortgages, or nearly half the total outstanding, and are at the center of government efforts to prop up the sagging housing market.
Both companies’ stock fell about 45% last week amid worry about whether they have enough capital to cover mortgage losses. The depth of their troubles spurred the Treasury Department on Sunday to unveil an unusual plan to temporarily extend an unspecified credit line to both companies — as well as buy stock in them if necessary.
That plan quickly came under fire on Capitol Hill. Critics argue it could cost American taxpayers billions of dollars.
July 18th, 2008 at 7:37 am
“Citi lost 2.5 billion. Took 7.2 billion in write downs.”
That CAN’T be true!! bi (and S&P) said there would be no more writedowns!!! bi, tell ‘em it’s not true!!!!
July 18th, 2008 at 7:39 am
Freddie wants to raise 10 billion?
That’s merely a speed bump on the highway to hell.
July 18th, 2008 at 7:40 am
#16 njp
I was so tempted to write that, but didn’t want to swipe your line.
July 18th, 2008 at 7:45 am
feel free, bairen. What if I had a coronary infarction and wasn’t able to post and you didn’t know about it until too late?
We would miss a prime chance to make fun of bi.
That can’t be allowed to happen.
July 18th, 2008 at 7:45 am
Just watched the Bunning/Paulson video. Great stuff. Paulson’s a crappy speaker in any event, but he doesn’t usually stutter quite that much.
July 18th, 2008 at 7:46 am
A 7.2 bil writedown becomes a cause for celebration. DJIA futures swing positive after announcement.
Can’t make this stuff up.
July 18th, 2008 at 8:02 am
grim Says:
Mortgage giant Freddie Mac is considering raising capital by selling as much as $10 billion in new shares to investors, according to people familiar with the matter.
Who in their right mind would be buying these? They’ll be luck to get $1/share.
July 18th, 2008 at 8:03 am
Write-down, write-down, write-down…
write it all down…what’s left?
Has it been 380B so far…on its way to 1T or more…it seems to be taking forever.
(12) Pat “FDIC sets new rules on US Deposits to Avoid System Failure.”
“The change will help pay off insured deposits as soon as possible and help “maintain public confidence in the banking industry,” the regulator said.
Public confidence? As they drag out these write-downs I think it is tryly messing with what confidence there is left…
July 18th, 2008 at 8:04 am
well tryly should be truly…
July 18th, 2008 at 8:10 am
I know I’m an idiot because all that will be left is more write-downs as the CC, student loans etc. come on board as well…
July 18th, 2008 at 8:12 am
cindy
5am out by you?
July 18th, 2008 at 8:16 am
“cindy
5am out by you?”
njp,
It’s happy hour somewhere.
July 18th, 2008 at 8:18 am
Clott, Regarding SKF
Bank stocks rally! Great selling opportunity!
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/Issues.aspx?Bank-stocks-rally-Great-selling-opportunity-1983
But if you’re wondering whether this is a time to jump back in …
My answer is a flat, unabashed “NO!”
Reason: The massive exposure most banks have to souring assets has just begun to be revealed. Nothing has changed. And the rally you’ve seen this week is minuscule in contrast to the huge declines we’ve seen over the past 18 months.
July 18th, 2008 at 8:18 am
(26) Yeah, 5AM - I wake up at 3 or 4. I’m usually in the classroom by 6:30 or 7:00…in bed by 9. Habit. Teachers are brain dead by the end of the day. I wake up early, read - do thecrossword and sudoku..check out what you folks have to say.
I had a very sobering exchange with skep-tic last night. You probably don’t remember when I first started reading back in December of 2007. It was after reading Greenspan and being disillusioned that he had not accepted much responsibility for the mess then. You folks were discussing what a “hack” he was.
Well, I’ve come a long way baby….
July 18th, 2008 at 8:23 am
“Teachers are brain dead by the end of the day.”
Cindy,
It could be worse. WS gurus are brain dead at the start of the day.
By the way, I haven’t heard pundit in awhile. Did that get buried with goldilocks?
July 18th, 2008 at 8:24 am
cindy
” wake up at 3 or 4. I’m usually in the classroom by 6:30 or 7:00…in bed by 9. Habit. Teachers are brain dead by the end of the day.”
I was raised by two teachers, so I know the routine well. My mother used to be up at 4am every day as well.
I don’t get up until 6 as a general rule. I can’t imagine getting up at 4. Or 3. On the other hand I’m not in bed by 9 very often.
July 18th, 2008 at 8:26 am
(30) Bob - I teach second graders. The word “pundit” doesn’t come up much but Goldilocks does….
I’ll try tossing it out there this year in a vocab lesson instead of saying “expert.”
July 18th, 2008 at 8:27 am
Bank stocks will rally more than BDs. They all moaned when the Fed forced them to reaised capital via convts and pref and common stock, but the market is sick of things that promise 10% interest then immediately decline 30%. Merrill etc. will be forced to fire sale assets or deal with the Saudis at gun point. That will make their recovery a longer one.
July 18th, 2008 at 8:30 am
Finished with “Trillion Dollar Meltdown.”
Bob, I saw you mentioned “Demise of the Dollar” Addison Wiggin. Anything else?
July 18th, 2008 at 8:32 am
…#16 - darn, ya beat me to it!!
Wanna go tonight. Can’t. Waaaaah.
sl
July 18th, 2008 at 8:38 am
Cindy [34],
http://www.dailyreckoning.com/LP/EmpireofDebt.html
Beware, a good part of it is very technical, a little boring.
July 18th, 2008 at 8:42 am
I admit, I had to push myself to finish Empire of Debt.
I hear Mark Zandi has a new book out, Financial Shock.
I wonder if he would be interested in doing a blog Q&A.
July 18th, 2008 at 8:42 am
(Zandi is Chief Economist at Moody’s Economy.com)
July 18th, 2008 at 8:42 am
x (28)-
Thanks. Been sleeping like a baby. Two days of bogus rally will be gone and forgotten in another session or two…when once again, the banks will begin to circle the drain in unison.
They should rename Freddie Mac. Dilution Mac? Freddie Krueger?
July 18th, 2008 at 8:44 am
Cannot make it tonight. Off to last tournament of the Summer.
Say hi to the Knob Creek for me. :)
July 18th, 2008 at 8:45 am
Ugly Bond of day.
LEHMAN BROS HLDGS INC LEHMAN 5.75000% 11/25/2023 CALL
Basic Analytics
Price (Ask) 62.493
Yield to Worst (Ask) 10.751%
July 18th, 2008 at 8:48 am
#34 - Cindy - Have you read The Road to Serfdom yet? Link goes to a comic-book version, you can get a regular version just about every where.
July 18th, 2008 at 8:50 am
Thanks for the recommendations -
I can recomment “My Lucky Day” by Keiko Kasza if you are looking for a good children’s book…
July 18th, 2008 at 8:52 am
yes that was recommenD..
July 18th, 2008 at 8:53 am
#21 clot: I just do not understand why the market would rally on this news?
Last week the markets fall because of concern about financials, this week much of that concern is confirmed,and the markets rally.
Perhaps the idiots truly have taken over the street.
July 18th, 2008 at 8:55 am
Here’s a great sales pitch for a newly listed home in Madison on GSMLS. Makes you wanna go take a look, huh? No pictures either…
“REM: Must make an appt with tenants 24hour notice.Call realtor as well .Tenants in the process of moving boxes throughout home, please excuse clutter.”
July 18th, 2008 at 8:59 am
3b (45)-
By however much these banks don’t hit the expected writedown numbers in the current quarter, you can bet that they are spring-loaded to detonate in future quarters.
And, these bombs will be filled with the nails, bolts and shrapnel of cc, student loan and car loan defaults.
July 18th, 2008 at 9:05 am
This one’s for Ann, where ever she may be…
http://newmls.gsmls.com/media/getImage.do?method=getListingImages&res=highres&mlnum=2536243&num=2
July 18th, 2008 at 9:07 am
Oh wait, this one’s better
The description is Priceless.
“Title: Kitchen
Description: A room with a View”
Emphasize VIEW.
http://newmls.gsmls.com/media/getImage.do?method=getListingImages&res=highres&mlnum=2536243&num=3
Wow. What a ….. view.
July 18th, 2008 at 9:09 am
Last post.
Does anyone know what color theme they were going for, here?
http://newmls.gsmls.com/media/getImage.do?method=getListingImages&res=highres&mlnum=2536243&num=6
July 18th, 2008 at 9:09 am
If NJ is to eventually follow CA here is the headline of the business section for today…(Fresno Bee)Jacob Adelman Assoc. Press
“Home prices down nearly one-third”
“Housing data show the median price of a home in California plummeted 31.5% in June compared with the same month last year as languishing properties began settling for less, a real estate tracking firm said Thursday.”
“Dataquick Information Systems said the median price for new and resale homes and condos stood at $328,000 last month, down from $479,000 in June of 2007.”
“The decline is being driven by tightening mortgage markets and a growing willingness by sellers to accept less for their homes, as well as a surge in sales of discounted properties.”
July 18th, 2008 at 9:11 am
Big banks did SOX, FDICIA, Basel II and comply with FED/NYSE/SEC/OCC/OTS requirements. There may be a lot of junk in the trunk but they are more likely to do know what the junk is. Merrill and Lehman don’t know what they have. I substaniated the balance sheet at chase a few years ago when I did audit, I also tried to do it at Merrill, damm those TBA mtgs tracing back to box of crap whole loans bought by the likes of american home mortgage, it is poor crap. Jaime knows he has crap like jumbos in califorinia. Merrill has a cracker jack box approach they don’t know what supports the balance sheets on that crap stuff. JT is cleaning house over their but it is a lot easier when a loan was labeled high risk at the get go and defaults then having loans labeled low risk that are actually high risk.
July 18th, 2008 at 9:12 am
hey grim,
can you add a “suggested reading” list to the side bar on your main page? there have been a lot of good reading suggestions and i know that i have missed a bunch of them. I am sure that other son here might be interested in some educational reading
July 18th, 2008 at 9:19 am
Clotpoll Says:
They should rename Freddie Mac. Dilution Mac? Freddie Krueger?
Raines got canned in 2004 from Fannie for cooking the books to make eps targets.
I guess now they’re doing the opposite. $1.00 loss per share I guess is better than $5.00
July 18th, 2008 at 9:22 am
Corzine signs affordable housing overhaul
MOUNT LAUREL — In a scene reminiscent of a Southern Baptist tent revival, Gov. Jon S. Corzine signed legislation on Thursday overhauling the state’s affordable housing policy that advocates called landmark and critics called another property tax raiser.
The legislation most notably bans regional contribution agreements, or RCAs, the process in which richer towns can sell off their affordable housing obligations to poorer ones.
“It concentrates the poor in the most impoverished cities, locking them into enclaves of disadvantage,” said Bishop Joseph Galante of the Diocese of Camden. “Out of sight and out of mind with jobs and opportunity out of reach.”
July 18th, 2008 at 9:25 am
Feds Probe Union Leader and Former Girlfriend of Gov. Corzine
Investigators Looking at Allegations that Carla Katz Misused Union Funds
July 18th, 2008 at 9:28 am
#48-50 spam
When bad taste happens to good people.
I wonder if the people in #50 have pets with reflux. That fabric would be great at hiding vomit stains.
July 18th, 2008 at 9:28 am
Nom / NJP,
I’m going to do my best to come tonight. I’m on the Bolt Bus from Philly headed to NYC. Great deal, clean new buses with TVs and WIFI for just $10! Its only 1 buck if you book 2 weeks in advance.
July 18th, 2008 at 9:29 am
poor carla.. jon to pay legal??
July 18th, 2008 at 9:31 am
Bay Area home prices plunge 27% in last year
That is much larger percentage drop than what I had imagined. Next up NJ.
July 18th, 2008 at 9:34 am
#58. Read about Bolt Bus. $1 Philly-NY? Is it crowded? Took a Gray Hound once and between the smell of urine and the panhandlers, vowed never to ride the bus again.
July 18th, 2008 at 9:35 am
“Contact Your Senator: Say No To Fannie Bailout”
“Bernanke told lawmakers it’s ‘important’ for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac bonds and stocks to rise…Paulson said the two companies are ‘essential’ because they represent the only “functioning” part of the home loan market.”
“Want to know who’s being bailed out by the Paulson and Bernanke’s proposal? Here is the answer: China and PIMCO’s Bill Gross.”
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/shedlock/2008/0717.html
July 18th, 2008 at 9:38 am
#60 SG
Another year like that and I could afford to live in the Bay area.
July 18th, 2008 at 9:38 am
Rutgers Economist Sees Two More Years of New Jersey Job Losses
Jul. 17–New Jersey is in a mild recession and will continue to shed jobs into early 2010, a Rutgers economist said Wednesday.
Nancy Mantell, director of the Rutgers Economic Advisory Service who spoke at the organization’s summer conference in New Brunswick, predicted that over the next two years the Garden State will lose 31,000 jobs from its employment peak of 4.08 million in the fourth quarter of 2007.
If she is right, that will be a smaller number of job losses than in the previous two recessions. The state has lost 14,100 jobs this year.
“It’s no longer a question of whether New Jersey is entering a downturn. We’re there,” said Philip Kirschner, president of the New Jersey Business and Industry Association. “Any hope of a comeback in private-sector job growth this year has just about vanished with this report.”
July 18th, 2008 at 9:39 am
Finally a GTG in our neck of the woods :)
See you guys and gals at 5:30. I believe my better half will also allow me to accompany her to this little shindig.
July 18th, 2008 at 9:40 am
“Affluent areas such as Marin County and San Francisco, which until now had resisted most price erosion, saw existing single-family home median prices fall by about 11 percent.”
From SG[60],
Another location that was immune, according to Pret.
July 18th, 2008 at 9:42 am
* Off topic*
Can anyone suggest a way to get vhs on to dvd ( an easy way please) From what I am googling a combo vhs /dvd player should do it however the reviews on all the models I find are mixed, from works like a charm to too complicated.
TIA
KL
July 18th, 2008 at 9:46 am
Something Big is Happening
Rep. Ron Paul, M.D.
July 18th, 2008 at 9:48 am
# 49 Same house… I just LOVE the furniture.
http://newmls.gsmls.com/media/getImage.do?method=getListingImages&res=highres&mlnum=2536243&num=6
July 18th, 2008 at 9:48 am
[4] NJP
“It’s going to be a long day. I need a drink.”
Patience, mon frere, patience.
July 18th, 2008 at 9:58 am
[61] DL
Not to scare anyone, but I am not a big fan of intercity buses, especially low cost operators.
I drove a bus in college and I know how the intercity drivers drive and why (at Peter Pan, drivers were paid by the mile, creating an incentive to speed). Also, MCIs and Prevosts handle pretty well for something so large, and that fosters false security in the driver.
Not surprisingly, they have an extremely high accident rate, and NJ seems to be the epicenter of bus accidents.
July 18th, 2008 at 9:58 am
“Voters to decide on naming sewage plant for Bush”
http://tinyurl.com/5r3av6
Wonder what they’ll name after the VP?
July 18th, 2008 at 10:01 am
SG Says:
Something Big is Happening
Great speech. Unfortunately rhetoric like that, however true, gets as much consideration as a homeless looking guy standing on a milk crate shouting with a bible at the corner.
American’s are too comfortable in their false sense of security to give a shit about the big picture….most politicians included.
July 18th, 2008 at 10:01 am
George W. Bush Sewage Plant plan is on ballot
Friday, July 18, 2008
(07-17) 14:57 PDT SAN FRANCISCO — San Francisco voters will be asked to decide whether to name a city sewage plant in honor of President Bush, after a satiric measure qualified for the November ballot Thursday.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/07/17/MN7A11QU1S.DTL
July 18th, 2008 at 10:12 am
61,
Its very clean and only about 10 of us on board. A few students and euro travlers. I believe bolt is a part of grayhound and only does DC,Philly and NYC.
I’m sitting up front and the driver is cautiously doing 60. Its not bad but I am taking Amtrak back to avoid shore traffic.
July 18th, 2008 at 10:13 am
Hoboken numbers.
look reliable and I double checked on the nj tax records site. Those that have gone thru the county clerks office were accurate.
http://hobokenrealestatenews.com/
July 18th, 2008 at 10:26 am
spam (50)-
Is Rohrschach a color?
July 18th, 2008 at 10:29 am
SG (55)-
“It concentrates the poor in the most impoverished cities, locking them into enclaves of disadvantage,” said Bishop Joseph Galante of the Diocese of Camden. “Out of sight and out of mind with jobs and opportunity out of reach.”
Much better to put them out in Hunterdon or Warren Co…nowhere near public transportation, shopping or jobs.
Yeah, that’s the ticket.
July 18th, 2008 at 10:30 am
#64 Sounds too optimistic to me.
July 18th, 2008 at 10:30 am
SG (56)-
I get a sorta creepy, crawly feeling when I see the words “Carla Katz” and “probe” used in the same sentence.
Just saying.
July 18th, 2008 at 10:31 am
#74
childish
July 18th, 2008 at 10:33 am
When do you guys think we’ll start hearing about the problems in the non-consumer credit markets?
A bunch of projects have stalled due to lack of financing. With the projects left unfinished I can’t imagine they’ll be able to keep up payments. Commercial REITs have already taken a beating.
July 18th, 2008 at 10:37 am
Cresskill Comp Killer!
SOLD: 223 MADISON AVE $545,000 7/14/2004
MLS#: 2801370
Orig. List: $649,500 12/12/2006
SOLD: $525,000 7/17/2008
July 18th, 2008 at 10:41 am
81- I agree.
When can we get our very own Dubya Sewage plant??
July 18th, 2008 at 10:45 am
Closter FUTURE Comp Killer!
SOLD: 15 GARRY RD $1,350,000 8/2/2006
MLS#: 2830189 (REO)
Orig. List: $1,600,000 1/30/2007
Last List: $1,175,500 7/17/2008
July 18th, 2008 at 10:48 am
Dumont FUTURE Comp Killer!
SOLD: 77 VAN RIPER AVE $392,000 7/25/2005
MLS#: 2830124 (REO)
Orig. Lsit: $449,900 2/13/2006
Last List: $335,000 7/17/2008
July 18th, 2008 at 10:49 am
Ooops, last one was Elmwood Park, not Dumont!
July 18th, 2008 at 10:51 am
Fair Lawn FUTURE Comp Killer!
SOLD: 15-03 LUCENA DR $610,000 7/19/2004
MLS#: 2830280
Orig. & Last List: $501,900 7/17/2008
July 18th, 2008 at 10:58 am
#84 Victoria
“When can we get our very own Dubya Sewage plant??”
We could install it right next door to the NJ Government Hall of Ethics and Common Sense
July 18th, 2008 at 10:59 am
any suggestions on parking if i take the clifton station in for the GTG?
July 18th, 2008 at 10:59 am
Ho-Ho-Kus FUTURE Comp Killer!
SOLD: 183 LAKEWOOD AVE $790,000 4/4/2006
MLS#: 2820100
Orig. List: $779,000 5/15/2008
Last List: $729,000 7/17/2008
July 18th, 2008 at 11:00 am
Rich,
I heard a rumor that agents are listing homes much lower than boom prices and lower than last sale to get the free advertising from your comp killer posts. They’re hoping to get a bidding war going from the people that read this blog.
(By “heard” I mean “just made up”) :)
July 18th, 2008 at 11:02 am
Old Tappan FUTURE Comp Killer!
SOLD: 6 OLD CHURCH CT $1,374,000 7/10/2006
MLS#: 2823607
Orig. List: $1,298,777 6/10/2008
Last List: $1,198,777 7/17/2008
July 18th, 2008 at 11:02 am
any suggestions on parking if i take the clifton station in for the GTG?
You should be able to find parking at the station.
What train? I may be on it.
July 18th, 2008 at 11:05 am
Clot 78,
So the only reason these people may be in a lower socioeconomic segment of the population is because of where they live????. To be somewhat bombastic, may i suggest that we consider west virginia? if rural is better then urban, why not just build housing in west Virginia for these individuals?
housing is not the root problem and it is not the solution. To socioeconomic status anyway.
July 18th, 2008 at 11:10 am
Upper Saddle River FUTURE Comp Killer!
SOLD: 312 LAKE ST $662,500 3/11/2005
MLS#: 2824472
Orig. List: $825,000 3/26/2007
Last List: $659,000 7/17/2008
July 18th, 2008 at 11:12 am
Considering this GTG is three blocks away from work I might have to attend
July 18th, 2008 at 11:13 am
either 430pm or 5pm, depending on how long it takes to get to clifton from mahwah
July 18th, 2008 at 11:14 am
““First of all, I take exception to the ‘you guys’ comment. I did not create these C.D.O.’s.””
http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/07/17/stan-oneal-are-you-listening/
Apparently John Thain will take the big CEO paychecks but don’t give him any blame.
July 18th, 2008 at 11:17 am
FBI investigates IndyMac
http://ny.therealdeal.com/articles/fbi-investigates-indymac
Fraud puh-leeze! I am sure the Indymac CEO is wishing he had thought of those Capital Hill lending programs Mozillo came up with right about now.
July 18th, 2008 at 11:22 am
Kettle (98),
Why not just take the train from Ramsey station on route 17?
Unless you work in Mahwah and in live in Clifton.
July 18th, 2008 at 11:27 am
”
“First of all, I take exception to the ‘you guys’ comment. I did not create these C.D.O.’s.”
Apparently John Thain will take the big CEO paychecks but don’t give him any blame.”
Isn’t this exactly why Sarbox was enacted? So that executives would not be able to shirk responsibility like this? That’s why so much work and money went into upgrading systems to insure there was no tampering and that nearly every penny could be traced.
Please start throwing these crooks in jail.
July 18th, 2008 at 11:30 am
Kettle,
A little light reading for the train ride:
Rand: Iran’s Political, Demographic, and Economic Vulnerabilities
http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2008/RAND_MG693.pdf
July 18th, 2008 at 11:33 am
i live in rockaway and work in mahwah. It would take me 2+ hours to get home from NYC if i have to take the train back to mahwah and then drive home. Its shorter for me to get home by taking the train back to clifton then driving home.
July 18th, 2008 at 11:34 am
ket,
Let me know if you want to meet up in Clifton.
July 18th, 2008 at 11:37 am
would the 5pm train work for you grim?
July 18th, 2008 at 11:42 am
“Top fund managers socked by financial bets”
http://money.cnn.com/2008/07/18/news/companies/levenson_funds.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2008071810
Bill Miller down 41% this year.
Was he lucky for 15 years and is regressing to the mean?
July 18th, 2008 at 11:46 am
Rockaway to Mahwah everyday!
I’m guessing you take a bicycle you know, to save the environment.
Ever think of moving?
July 18th, 2008 at 11:46 am
Tom,
There is no accountability.
ANYWHERE.
We are all professsional slackers when the schitt hits the fan:
“I didn’t know”.
“I wasn’t there”.
“Noone told me”.
“It wasn’t like that when I left”.
To be in my own business, one of the first, and hardest lessons I had to learn was saying,
“Oh, I screwed up. Let me correct this right away”.
and this lesson? I’m still learning it. It’s not a natural reflex. I literally have to remind myself often.
July 18th, 2008 at 11:50 am
[74]
No doubt sponsored by Jello Biafra, frontman for the Dead Kennedys.
Seriously, how long until someplace in Texas remains a landfill for Pelosi?
July 18th, 2008 at 11:51 am
[80] Clot and SG
that was a visual I didn’t need.
July 18th, 2008 at 11:52 am
rich 108
no, i am an indpendent contract and my work is in a different location on a regular basis. some days i am in mahwah, other i am in elizabeth etc….
July 18th, 2008 at 11:56 am
Ahhhh, I see.
Gonna be in Mahwah long? It would be great to get a Bergen County GTG together.
July 18th, 2008 at 12:02 pm
rich,
probably until dec
July 18th, 2008 at 12:10 pm
#113 Rich: How about the Iron Horse?
July 18th, 2008 at 12:13 pm
Hoboken voted #1 in the country as best place for singles to live.
http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2008/moneymag/0807/gallery.bplive_mostsingles.moneymag/index.html
July 18th, 2008 at 12:17 pm
As a single who lives in Hoboken let me say, HAHAHAHA! That’s some funny sh*t.
July 18th, 2008 at 12:18 pm
#116
Newark and East Orange also made that list… now I’m frightened. Yeah, I always think of Hermosa Beach and East Orange as being very similar.
July 18th, 2008 at 12:19 pm
Don’t get me wrong Hoboken is nice, but nicest place in America? Not quite.
July 18th, 2008 at 12:19 pm
HEHEHE,
You should watch the video clip. They follow a guy around Hoboken, and interview your Mayor in his office.
July 18th, 2008 at 12:20 pm
#119
Exactly my thoughts. I lived in Boken for 4 years (and liked it), but I tend to think Hermosa Beach is a slightly better scene.
July 18th, 2008 at 12:24 pm
#107
July 13, 2008
Strategies
The Prescient Are Few
By MARK HLBERT
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/13/business/13stra.html?pagewanted=print
July 18th, 2008 at 12:28 pm
Doyle,
No offense but that worthless, lying, closeted homosexual, sack of sh*t is not my mayor!!! :)
July 18th, 2008 at 12:29 pm
kettle,
Rockaway is on my very short list of places to buy. We are activly looking there now.
How do you like it? Anywhere I should stay away from?
Also, the taxes do seem high there when compared with the surrounding towns. Any thoughts on that? Should I be worried?
July 18th, 2008 at 12:53 pm
#124 rent:Should I be worried?
Whereever you buy in NH, you should be worried about taxes;very worried.
July 18th, 2008 at 12:54 pm
#125Sorry should be NJ, not NH
July 18th, 2008 at 12:58 pm
Whereever you buy in NH, you should be worried about taxes;very worried.
Thats a given. I mean, “should I be more worried than I would normally be buying in any other NJ town with slightly less stupid property taxes”
July 18th, 2008 at 1:07 pm
from the WSJ… amazing
Countrywide Filing Shines Light on Loans
By RUTH SIMON
July 18, 2008; Page A14
An amended complaint filed Thursday by the California attorney general related to a suit against Countrywide Financial Corp. sheds new light on the poor quality of loans the company was planning to sell to investors.
The new data provide a close look at 158,000 mortgages that had been slated for sale by Countrywide Homes Loans before last summer’s credit crunch — which was triggered by rising mortgage defaults — turned investors away from mortgage-backed securities. Nearly 48% of nonprime loans and 21% of pay-option adjustable-rate mortgage in that portfolio were in some stage of delinquency or foreclosure as of April 30, according to the amended complaint, filed by California Attorney General Jerry Brown in state court in Los Angeles. Overall, more than 21% of all loans in that portfolio were in some stage of delinquency or foreclosure, it says.
These loans account for roughly 17% of mortgages held by Countrywide, says Dan Frahm, a spokesman for Bank of America Corp., which completed its acquisition of Countrywide earlier this month. Mr. Frahm added that 9.53% of all loans owned by Countrywide were 30 days or more past due as of the end of April.
July 18th, 2008 at 1:16 pm
renting,
Rockaway is nice enough,
The primary things to be aware of are1. Dover. While its certainly not newark, i dont know that you want to raise a family in close proximity. Dover is currently having the same issues that many towns with a high percentage of legal/illegal immigrants live. ( not trying to start that debate)
2. I will double check this weekend, but one of the elementary schools is known to be terrible! I will get back to you on that one, my wife will know.
3. taxes…. I dont pay much attention as i am a poor dirty renter. I do know that the local paper has been talking about budget issues.
There are some very nice parts of rockaway. One possible pitfall is that as the economy drops off, the ton could lose a lot of income coming from the rockaway mall, as shopping drops off. No reason to take the town off your list, just FYI
July 18th, 2008 at 1:19 pm
grim
will i see you on the 5pm train out of clifton?
July 18th, 2008 at 1:26 pm
I might head out a bit earlier
July 18th, 2008 at 1:27 pm
all read jj at 52
July 18th, 2008 at 1:29 pm
“can you add a “suggested reading” list to the side bar on your main page? there have been a lot of good reading suggestions and i know that i have missed a bunch of them. I am sure that other son here might be interested in some educational reading”
grim - good idea from kettle. I think you can add a direct link to Amazon that pays you an amount if people buy the book directly through the link (without increasing the price to the buyer).
July 18th, 2008 at 1:31 pm
No need to worry about gas prices!!!!
Just provide government funded liposuction for all americans and then use the fat to make biodiesel!!!!
US population is 300 million, 1/4 is 75 million.
assume we can get 10 lbs/person minimum = 750 million lbs of fat
SG(specific gravity) of human fat is about 0.9 and fat based biodiesel can give 1 gallon of biodiesel per gallon of fat. So right there we have 750*.9 = 675 million gallons of biodiesel.
This would replace about 1.6% of the total US diesel consumption (40 billion gal/yr), not much but a start. AND!!!! its renewable. just keep eating those Twinkies and fries and every year the GOV can harvest another 10 pounds from you! Talk about recycling
More than a quarter of all Americans are now obese, the latest U.S. government figures show
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/rtrs/20080717/thl-uk-obesity-usa-8004a53.html
July 18th, 2008 at 1:35 pm
This bubble is reminding me more and more of a comic book. Plenty of villians, lots of huddled masses, corruption and double talk, yada yada yada.
So in that spirit I’m thinking about giving myself a superhero like handle.
I’m considering
Heloc Hero
Ponzi Popper
The Loan Ranger
Perhaps something even better will come to mind.
July 18th, 2008 at 1:41 pm
bairen…
Underwater warrior?
RateShock?
Capt Inflation?
as for a jester…. Bernanke the Bungler?
July 18th, 2008 at 1:41 pm
82 Tom
“When do you guys think we’ll start hearing about the problems in the non-consumer credit markets?”
There’s been a problem financing M&A for a year already.
July 18th, 2008 at 1:45 pm
Doyle Says:
Hoboken voted #1 in the country as best place for singles to live.
Newark is #20 in the country…is you crazy!!!!!
July 18th, 2008 at 1:53 pm
njpatient,
I know there have been problems, I guess I meant when is it going to hit the main stream media the way the residential market has or will it ever?
As an aside, this is old news but I only recently found it and thought it was funny. My apologies if it’s been posted before.
But if you’re a single woman here’s a great way to get out of housing trouble in a way that lets you have your cake and eat it too. Looking to live the american dream? Get a jump start with buying this home, wife and kids included. (Money not included)
July 18th, 2008 at 1:54 pm
X,
i can see newark at 20. Last i heard the “night life” was still hopping, as ladies of the night are readily available!
Any comments on this John? a story perhaps?
July 18th, 2008 at 1:58 pm
139 Tom
“or will it ever?”
I wonder. It has to come with the admission that the entire economic system in this country is broken, and folks have a hard time admitting that. It’s easy to say “those financially inept folks over there screwed up this subprime thing - oh well, let’s move on.” Different to say that the very basics have come unglued.
July 18th, 2008 at 2:02 pm
#136 kettle1
Also
Major Meltdown
Freddie Smack
Captain Corruption
Some great names like Flipper, Pop goes the weasel and Helicopter Ben have already been claimed.
July 18th, 2008 at 2:04 pm
#141 njpatient:Different to say that the very basics have come unglued.
And to admit that so many people played a role in it, as opposed to saying it is just Wall St’s fault, or the realtor’s fault, or the mtg broker’s fault.
July 18th, 2008 at 2:05 pm
#138- Live in Newark only because I bought a cheap co-op and yes I’m single. Just wondering what is so desirable about Newark besides the ruthless killings?
July 18th, 2008 at 2:06 pm
RentinginNJ,
Rockaway ain’t bad if you go north of the town towards Green Pond. Watch the taxes though. The NJ.com site that shows taxes for all the towns lists Rockaway as one of the worst in Morris County. I’d shop in Denville before I went there as it’s a little better taxwise and doesn’t butt up to Dover-rico
July 18th, 2008 at 2:07 pm
143 3B
Exactly.
July 18th, 2008 at 2:08 pm
njpatient,
first step is to admit we have a problem, because pretending we don’t and trying to find a booming market segment to exploit has just done more harm than good.
kettle1,
I think some people will find your suggestion completely immoral even if it was meant to be humorous. First of all, the only people going to benefit from it will be the plastic surgeons, divorce lawyers and youtube and myspace after all the “check out my new sexy body” videos come out. Secondly, the chubby chaser lobby will never allow it. Even though Bubba is out of office he still has a lot of sway.
July 18th, 2008 at 2:10 pm
I think Bi is the number cruncher for Money.com’s best places lists.
Any time I read one of them, it’s totally baseless
July 18th, 2008 at 2:10 pm
#123
HEHEHE,
None taken!
July 18th, 2008 at 2:14 pm
“first step is to admit we have a problem”
I rely on grim to make that happen.
July 18th, 2008 at 2:16 pm
Tom - I think kettle’s Swiftian solution may work. And I don’t think it discriminates against fat folk (and I ain’t skinny), because they’re the folks who’ll be able to generate their own power. When we run out of oil, the obese will rule the world!
July 18th, 2008 at 2:24 pm
njpatient,
It has to be sustainable, we don’t want to get in the same situation we have with respect to the lumber industry or going further back to what happened with whales. I think the comparisons are clear.
Plus I don’t think the BBW pron industry, which has been growing in recent years (even though it has somehow lost speed it has maintained momentum) will be too thrilled.
If we could restrain the industry to stick to 10lbs of winter fat I’d be ok with that. I’d even sign up but I think there will be abuse.
July 18th, 2008 at 2:26 pm
“As recently as February of this year, Russian officials cleared the way for two of its sovereign wealth funds, the Reserve Fund and National Wellbeing Fund, to invest in various foreign bonds, including those issued by the twin towers of American residential finance, Fannie and Freddie.”
“The prospect for every GSE bond clearly states that it is not backed by the United States government,” says Matt Kibbe, president of FreedomWorks. “That’s why investors holding agency bonds already receive a significant risk premium over Treasuries.”
“The Russians ignored the warnings and grabbed the risk premium. Today, fully 21% of Russia’s monetary reserves are invested in the obligations of Fannie, Freddie and the Home Loan Banks. And the largest holder of Fannie and Freddie debt is another friendly foreigner, China. The middle kingdom, according to the FreedomWorks organization, owns $376 billion worth of U.S. agency bonds. Altogether, foreigners hold $1.3 trillion of them.”
“In the case at hand, by the year 2007, the CEOs of Fannie and Freddie were earning salaries that would have been respectable, even on Wall Street. Fannie’s main man, Daniel Mudd took home $13.4 million in 2007, a year in which the firm lost $2.1 billion. While the Freddie Kruger of mortgage finance, Dick Syron, pocketed $18.3 for helping Freddie Mac to a $3 billion loss and a 33% trim for the shareholders.”
“As recently as May of this year, Mr. Mudd told the New York Times that he was “seeing the best opportunities since I’ve been in this business.” Two months later, both Fannie and Freddie are “insolvent,” says former Fed governor William Poole.”
http://www.dailyreckoning.com/
July 18th, 2008 at 2:30 pm
actually, until maybe a week ago, the very basics of our economy had not come unglued yet. the market was correctly rapidly (mostly still is), which is what should happen. people who made dumb decisions were losing. they still mostly are, but now the feds are trying their hardest to prevent it on both ends (by bailing out the lenders and borrowers)
July 18th, 2008 at 2:34 pm
Kettle (114),
Cool!
3B (115),
The Iron Horse: Haven’t been to the bar but I was in the restaurant about 2-3 years ago and my first thought was wow, it looks just like it did in the late 70’s. On closer inspection I realized even the ketchup stains on the walls were from the same period as well.
In Westwood I prefer Finnegan’s though the bar is small and all the spots are usually taken by the locals.
It’s not central but Brady’s (formerly Trackside) in Ramsey has two bars so I’m sure we could easily commandeer a section of bar. And as its old name states it is right next to the tracks (Bergen/Main Line), diagonally across from the downtown Ramsey train station.
July 18th, 2008 at 2:54 pm
#155 That would work. I suggested the Iron Horse, ebcasue of that room they have in the back, but Brady’s sounds good.
July 18th, 2008 at 3:02 pm
NJ Starbucks closures
13581 HAMMONTON NJ 80 S WHITE HORSE PIKE HAMMONTON
7563 NEWARK/BROAD ST 744 BRD ST NEWARK
13499 RIDGEW00D 10 WILSEY SQUARE RIDGEWOOD
13298 WEST BELT PLAZA 57 ROUTE 23 S WAYNE
10327 WILLINGBORO 4364 ROUTE 130 N WILLINGBORO
July 18th, 2008 at 3:03 pm
re: #113 Ironhorse in Westwood, had what passed as food there a year ago while, you will need an iron stomach.
July 18th, 2008 at 3:07 pm
154 skep
“people who made dumb decisions were losing.”
I would dispute that. We’ve so far spent a couple hundred billion in bailouts.
July 18th, 2008 at 3:14 pm
#157 chgofinance:13499 RIDGEW00D 10 WILSEY SQUARE RIDGEWOOD
OMG!!! Ridgewood!!!
July 18th, 2008 at 3:15 pm
NJP,
I am still waiting to hear when i can take my dirty laundry to the FED window……
July 18th, 2008 at 3:15 pm
#158 Sean:I have not eaten there in years, but at one time the food was decent.
July 18th, 2008 at 3:18 pm
grim are you taking the 4:30 train?
July 18th, 2008 at 3:19 pm
From yesterday posted by the GPS. It is one of the most ugly, disgusting and ignorant posts I’ve ever seen on this blog from someone who ostensibly should know better and claims a moral highground…..
Tom Says:
July 17th, 2008 at 8:56 pm
The IT folks, admin, hr staff, etc will have an easier time moving into other market segments. Those in the finance side won’t have as many options.
The banks needed to hire more people to handle the volume they were generating. You can’t tell me their all financial wizards. Those people were lucky for the boom to be able to be making the money they were making.
Those that know what they were doing should have an easier time moving on.
It wasn’t just a handful of people screwing up. The losses are projected to be in the trillions. We’ve already seen losses in the billions. The whole country has been affected. There have already been indictments and there are ongoing FBI investigations. What happened wasn’t just stupidity, it was criminal in many cases and hopefully the biggest offenders get brought to trial and not just some of these token small fish.
I’m sure the people are good people, but I don’t really have much sympathy if they lose their jobs. There are millions of people that will suffer loses that weren’t making money off the companies that caused this mess and weren’t defaulting on loans after cashing out hundreds of K in equity.
Someone should really take a much closer look at what’s happening on wall street. Two huge bubbles so close together just isn’t right.
July 18th, 2008 at 3:21 pm
#161 kettle:I have an old lawn mower, patio furniture, and a Members Only jacket from the 80’s. Can I bring that to the Fed window too??
July 18th, 2008 at 3:23 pm
Ket,
Earlier, 3:55, I’m trying to catch up with someone before they leave.
July 18th, 2008 at 3:25 pm
stan Says:
July 18th, 2008 at 10:13 am
Hoboken numbers.
Those 1BR #’s (Avg. Sold Price) are just ugly.
July 18th, 2008 at 3:31 pm
i’ll be on the 4:30, walking out the door now!
hey, i might even wait 20 minutes before predicting the end of the world!
July 18th, 2008 at 3:33 pm
“We’ve so far spent a couple hundred billion in bailouts.”
OK, fair enough. It just seemed to move up to the next level in a big way last week. No more surreptitious bailouts.
July 18th, 2008 at 3:33 pm
…. a note on the summer shore season. We just got back from a week at Cape May. Vacancies at every hotel. We have never seen that in the last 4 years we have been vacationing there. Food definitely up, but I guess we knew that.
July 18th, 2008 at 3:36 pm
Earlier, 3:55, I’m trying to catch up with someone before they leave.
Relax, your friend Johnnie Walker will be there no matter what time you arrive.
July 18th, 2008 at 3:38 pm
There’s a Hoboken condo on the market for $709,000 (1150 square feet). Owners originally purchased it in 2000 for $393,000.
That’s just insane.
July 18th, 2008 at 3:39 pm
I should say that the condo is in the Constitution building which is decent, but not among the top buildings. Unit does not face water.
July 18th, 2008 at 3:51 pm
169 skep
trudat
July 18th, 2008 at 4:01 pm
Why so quiet today?
July 18th, 2008 at 4:04 pm
#175
John has a summer friday.
July 18th, 2008 at 4:05 pm
My bother just got laid of at WaMu.
July 18th, 2008 at 4:06 pm
sorry, Looking
July 18th, 2008 at 4:06 pm
“Why so quiet today?”
too much to do
July 18th, 2008 at 4:10 pm
skep-tic,
Don’t take this the wrong way, but I think you need to expand your understanding of what happened with the housing boom. Thinking in terms of just borrowers and lenders doesn’t cover even half the story. Credit rating agencies, wall st, brokers, insurers all had a hand in what happened. The trading of subprime mortgage based securities was a big part of it. Credit rating agencies didn’t do a good job assessing the risk of these securities or didn’t care because the FRBNY had already shown it would jump in with billions of dollars in the late 90’s if they think it would prevent larger problems in the financial markets.
It’s one big mess.
July 18th, 2008 at 4:15 pm
WaMu just gave him a box, and told him to pack up. Of course the other manager watched as he packed, and escorted him out of the branch. That was it. 2 years and not even a Thank You.
July 18th, 2008 at 4:27 pm
(180) Tom said..
skep-tic “Don’t take this the wrong way, but I think you need to expand your understanding of what happened with the housing boom.”
Tom, skep-tic may or may not feel like expanding what he/she has to SAY about the housing boom but skep-tic does not need to expand his/her UNDERSTANDING about it….
(Sorry skep-tic - I have no idea what you do or if you are a he/she.)But I do know you have a complete understanding of this “one big mess.”
July 18th, 2008 at 4:30 pm
Not quiet just bs’ing at Ulysis as my brother had interviews downtown and I met up with him afterwords. My late lunch became three or four pints of guiness and the scenenery was quite nice. Funniest thing was my brother ordered a tall in a grande cup no milk. They charged him for the tall yet filled it to the same point as my grande with milk. Dang being unemployed gives you some tricks of the trade, I am so jealous.
July 18th, 2008 at 4:33 pm
Not a bad send off. At least he got to put his stuff in the box. We used to throw the employee out out and UPS them the stuff in a box. God the freeky stuffy these guys kept in the desk. Vasoline with pubs sticking out I once UPS’d dang that was funky.
July 18th, 2008 at 4:34 pm
South Constitution 2 bedrooms in Hoboken are now selling for under $700k regardless of where they are listed. The ones listed north of $700K are sitting for months. The top of the market for the South Constitution was in 2005 when a few two bedrooms traded for $800K plus.
July 18th, 2008 at 4:34 pm
BTW SOV MAY BEAT THE STREET. Don’t know but saw a crazy price tick up in the two prefs in last 60 minutes.
July 18th, 2008 at 4:35 pm
184 - John.
“Vasoline with pubs sticking out I once UPS’d dang that was funky.”
Ahhhh…. now the day feels complete.
July 18th, 2008 at 4:49 pm
John,
Are you coming???
July 18th, 2008 at 4:52 pm
“Citigroup lifted the Dow Jones Industrial Average to the steepest three-day gain since March 2003″
- cant make this up.
July 18th, 2008 at 4:57 pm
#189 Victorian: Minor rally in a Bear market, IMO.
The economic and market fundamentals are still dismal,and investors are deluding themselves.
July 18th, 2008 at 5:02 pm
cindy
“Sorry skep-tic - I have no idea what you do or if you are a he/she”
I think skep’s a lawyer and have always assumed s/he’s a dude, but I may be wrong about that.
July 18th, 2008 at 5:05 pm
Victorian,
Amazing isn’t it? Their sales are down 33% from last year and instead of billions in profits they have billions in losses.
But the stock gets a bump because they’re huge loss wasn’t as huge as analysts expected.
All we need is for analysts to keep being pessimistic and the market should improve :)
July 18th, 2008 at 5:05 pm
(191) Thanks nj…I thought YOU were the lawyer…
Anyway, skep-tic has been very helpful and informative and is quite aware how we got here…A man of few words, though - to the point and all that.
July 18th, 2008 at 5:08 pm
3b 190 Sucker rally, they will give it all back in the long run as it hits the fan. The lower price in oil reflects the assumption that the economies of the world are headed down. So the market goes up?
This is bad news for the market & they don’t see it?
July 18th, 2008 at 5:12 pm
180 Tom
I think most of the crew here views the bubble as being a massive free-for-all with villains of every flavor.
There were almost no innocents, at least IMO.
And to reiterate a point that Chifi made earlier, many of the folks getting canned at the $ institutions had nothing to do with it.
I’m the happiest guy in the world when the villains get left holding the bag (you can call me schadenfreude-boy if you like) but I don’t define the villains narrowly.
I don’t find any more sympathy for the folks who took the loans than for the folks who gave the loans, nor for the pimps at the NAR and their thousands of flying monkeys, nor the pimps in the media, nor the policy maroons at the fed and in the Bush and Clinton administrations.
The occasional troll on hear often tosses out accusations of bitterness, and let me tell you that I, for one, am happy to cop to that feeling.
The bubble has been a giant PITA from the Patient perspective, and I don’t mind if every single damn fool who caused it winds up drinking a little metaphorical hemlock.
July 18th, 2008 at 5:13 pm
“Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. End of illusions”
http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11751139
July 18th, 2008 at 5:13 pm
…nor the folks who packaged and sold the loans, nor the folks who invested in the packaged loans, nor the…
July 18th, 2008 at 5:14 pm
Hoboken voted #1 in the country as best place for singles to live.
that is an absolute joke. the problem with these damn lists is that i guarantee you one of the editors of CNN’s Money section lives in Hoboken and thinks it is awesome.
It’s another reason why NY Magazine has been on Brooklyn’s tip for the last few years. All the low-paying editor jobs at that mag have forced the staffers to live in Brooklyn, and they think it’s cool.
Not being a snob, but there’s no way NY isn’t the best place to live for singles in the US. No way.
July 18th, 2008 at 5:17 pm
Greetings again from the Bay Area. Anybody have thoughts on commuting from Bergen County to a job in Brooklyn?
We’re still hoping to make the move to BC (where I grew up) this year, and my husband seems to be finding lots of jobs posted in the Brooklyn area.
My initial reaction is that it would be much more of a pain than commuting to Manhattan (where I’ll be working), but he seems to think it’s just a few more subway stops and not a big time difference.
Also, I feel like if he’s working in Bklyn, and I’m working in Manhattan, Bklyn or LI would make more sense for where we’d live.
TIA for your feedback! Hope everyone has fun @ the GTG… and best wishes to you, Grim.
July 18th, 2008 at 5:17 pm
L-ish Economic Prospects
By PAUL KRUGMAN
Home prices are in free fall. Unemployment is rising. Consumer confidence is plumbing depths not seen since 1980. When will it all end?
The answer is, probably not until 2010 or later. Barack Obama, take notice.
It’s true that some prognosticators still expect a “V-shaped” recovery in which the economy springs back rapidly from its slump. On this view, any day now it will be morning in America.
But if the experience of the last 20 years is any guide, the prospect for the economy isn’t V-shaped, it’s L-ish: rather than springing back, we’ll have a prolonged period of flat or at best slowly improving performance.
July 18th, 2008 at 5:33 pm
The rally’s the past couple of days is just the PPT at work. Come out and talk up the market. Buy up some targeted shares with taxpayers money. Squeeze the shorts for a few more points. Then watch it all drop back down again for a month until you start all over again.
July 18th, 2008 at 5:33 pm
am I the first one here?
July 18th, 2008 at 5:36 pm
The Fall of Fannie and Freddie — Symptom of Growing Crisis in World Capitalism
By Lynn Walsh
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, twin pillars of U.S. housing finance, have been plunged into crisis. Only three months after the meltdown and bailout of Bear Stearns, the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve have once again been forced to intervene with emergency measures to forestall a potential crash in the global finance system.
Both U.S. banks and foreign investors, including central banks, hold billions of dollars of mortgage-backed securities issued or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (the official acronyms for the Federal National Mortgage Association, set up in 1938, and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation, set up in 1970). A collapse in the value of these securities, totaling around $5 trillion, would have disastrous consequences for the world capitalist economy.
July 18th, 2008 at 5:37 pm
Have fun at GTG. Can not attend today due to prior commitments.
July 18th, 2008 at 5:38 pm
No, I was here first, in spirit.
July 18th, 2008 at 5:44 pm
Where the hell is this joint?
July 18th, 2008 at 5:45 pm
it’s lonely here being the only bitter renter. I assune all these 20/30 somethings all make mid six figures and own their own NYC penthouse condos…
sittin at the corner of the bar enjoying some summer ale if anybody cares to join me!
July 18th, 2008 at 5:46 pm
51st between 5th and 6th (Ave of Americas)
July 18th, 2008 at 5:52 pm
Njpatient at #195:
No, really tell us how you fee1! (Sarcasm off). I hope never to piss you off!
July 18th, 2008 at 5:58 pm
“the problem with these damn lists is that i guarantee you one of the editors of CNN’s Money section lives in Hoboken and thinks it is awesome.It’s another reason why NY Magazine has been on Brooklyn’s tip for the last few years. All the low-paying editor jobs at that mag have forced the staffers to live in Brooklyn, and they think it’s cool.”
The media can’t distinguish between data and anecdata.
July 18th, 2008 at 6:01 pm
199 movin
“My initial reaction is that it would be much more of a pain than commuting to Manhattan (where I’ll be working), but he seems to think it’s just a few more subway stops and not a big time difference.”
You’re right, he’s wrong. Commuting to bklyn from manhattan is enough of a pain. Get him to take the actual commute next time he has a Monday off - he’ll change his tune.
July 18th, 2008 at 6:04 pm
njpatient/cindy,
I didn’t mean to imply that skeptic didn’t know what he was talking about. Almost from the first time I started posting here we’ve had a few exchanges that I at least considered to be interesting and productive. We seem to agree on most things except he seems to put more of the blame on borrowers. I was just looking to continue or debate. I don’t know that I said anything that would offend him or at least I didn’t mean to and if I did I apologize.
I tend to debate more about the issues where I disagree with someone because that’s where I find it more interesting and learn the most.
The point I was trying to make regards to the employees is that companies were hiring during the boom and a lot of these people wouldn’t have had those jobs making the money they were making if it wasn’t for the boom. It sucks that they’re getting let go but they should be happy they got what they did in some cases.
I have more first hand experience with the dot com bubble and I can tell you there were tons of people that were drawn to the money and didn’t know what they were doing and couldn’t pick it up. Didn’t matter, companies had money to burn and if they didn’t show they could burn through it they might not get the next round of financing. It’s not hard to find news stories of similar things happening in the finance world during the boom, like the busboy turned mortgage broker raking in a 6 figure salary. He might have to go back to the food service industry.
All these layoffs are going to result in a giant game of musical chairs where hopefully the best find a seat and the rest move on to other fields. I’m not assuming everyone that gets laid off is incompetent or not as good since a lot is based on personal relationships but I can’t swallow that all these people were financial geniuses that are getting a raw deal.
Like I said, the IT, admin and other support staff are generally better off because they aren’t as limited to finance if they really know what they’re doing.
I don’t remember every saying I held them responsible I just don’t have much sympathy for them. Especially if as was claimed, they knew what was going on and didn’t prepare for the crash.
The housing bubble sucked a lot of money from other parts of our economy and once things get straightened out I think we’ll start seeing that money being spread around more like it was before.
People are going to lose their homes, and/or their jobs. Other areas of the economy are also taking a hit as a result. I just feel that the sooner we get back to normal the sooner we can start rebuilding.
July 18th, 2008 at 6:08 pm
209 njpatient
Thanks, I’ll suggest that. Yeah, commuting from BC to Manhattan is enough of a pain, the half-dozen times I’ve done it.
I think this will logically follow with us having to consider living on that side of the river/island… mehhh
July 18th, 2008 at 6:48 pm
(210) Tom
It’s just that when you say someone “needs to expand their understanding” about something, it comes off as condescending.
Maybe you can say “I disagree so let me share my ideas….”
I have found that many here know more than I can ever hope to and you have so many ideas to share. Alas, I am soooo NOT argumentative so I will leave it at that.
July 18th, 2008 at 6:48 pm
“Thinking in terms of just borrowers and lenders doesn’t cover even half the story.”
#180
I understand all of that, but to me all of those things you mentioned were/are deeply secondary.
July 18th, 2008 at 6:51 pm
(213) Hi skep-tic - been talkin about you…
July 18th, 2008 at 6:57 pm
And Tom, IMHO Everything comes down to personal responsibility and living well with the choices we make.
I otta know, I’ve made some doozies but I don’t beat myself up about them or BLAME anyone…you learn and move on.
July 18th, 2008 at 6:58 pm
#188 # Sybarite101 X Says:
July 18th, 2008 at 4:49 pm
“John,
Are you coming???”
Sybrite,
Please never ask john if he is “coming”.
Instead use words like “join” or “attend”.
July 18th, 2008 at 7:01 pm
Sorry can’t make it because of the busy family schedule here (sound stale). Enjoy your GTG while you still can …
July 18th, 2008 at 7:03 pm
With fifth and sixth graders, when you are on recess duty and the bell rings you don’t say “Hold onto your balls.” You say “Hold on to your equipment.”
July 18th, 2008 at 7:03 pm
Tom– I think it is clear that you tend to put more blame on institutions and I put more blame on individuals. At root, I think it is unavoidable that this entire mess is the result of a great number of bad individual decisions.
Borrowers and mortgage originators in my view deserve primary blame because they were the ones at the ground level of the food chain. There would have been no bogus securitizations, rating agency scams, SIVs etc without there first being a borrower who was willing to borrow beyond his ability to pay and a mortgagor who was willing to essentially help him commit fraud.
I understand that this is somewhat of a chicken vs the egg phenomenon since none of this would have been possible without the securitization machine.
However, I would compare it to the trash you see in the media on a daily basis: yes, the tabloids make it available, but they are making it available to service a public that demands the crap. If it doesn’t come from vendor 1, then vendor 2 will spring up and supply the demand.
July 18th, 2008 at 7:55 pm
Cindy,
“It’s just that when you say someone “needs to expand their understanding” about something, it comes off as condescending.”
Ah, yeah, that’s not exactly how I wanted that to come out. Sorry about that.
July 18th, 2008 at 8:06 pm
Got it..Thanks, Tom.
July 18th, 2008 at 8:42 pm
grim
“Where the hell is this joint?”
I think that’s properly spelled “jernt”.
Or is that Archie Bunker?
July 18th, 2008 at 8:42 pm
#210 TOM The IT and support admin people are going to have great difficulty finding jobs as well too.
We are in a receesion,and this is and will affect most industries/professions.jobs.
July 18th, 2008 at 8:43 pm
#194 Mike: EXACTLY!!
July 18th, 2008 at 8:43 pm
207 morph
“No, really tell us how you fee1! (Sarcasm off). I hope never to piss you off!”
That was necessary because I haven’t heard enough from gary recently?
Gary, we hardly knew ye!!!!
July 18th, 2008 at 8:44 pm
#215 Cindy: Well you know much more than you think.
July 18th, 2008 at 8:45 pm
skep-tic,
Some time ago I believe njpatient made a comment that some people believe that the people facing foreclosure should have be penalized above losing their homes. I found that hard to believe and when I saw some of your posts I wanted to understand your reasoning better.
I kinda get it but I still don’t agree with it. In my view, a borrower generally makes one mistake and I can let one mistake go especially considering they had to deal with realtors and mortgage brokers telling them they weren’t being stupid. That and the fact that most subprime lenders aren’t going to be the most financially savvy. An individual bank on the other hand made the same mistake over and over hundreds of thousand of times if not more. They should have known better.
I even feel a bit sorry for the investors that purchased these securities based on false ratings and information. They should have taken a closer look but it does seem like they were being conned too.
If it wasn’t for non-prime lending, the housing bubble could have peaked in 2003. That’s when the origination of conforming loans hit it’s peak falling by 50% in 2004.
The federal government had a role in this as well. Some of the legislation encouraged this to go on. In fact when Georgia, New York, New Jersey and New Mexico started coming out with legislation that would put purchasers of subprime based securities on the hook if the loans were deemed to be in violation of the states’ predatory lending laws. And then the federal government intervened and the states’ legislation went away.
The bigger lenders like Citi and GE Money seem to have gotten in late in the game. In 2006, while companies like HBSC and Countrywide were decreasing the amount of subprime loans they were originating, Citi actually doubled theirs compared to 2005.
I guess we’re not going to agree but thanks for taking the time to explain.
July 18th, 2008 at 8:47 pm
216 bairen
“Please never ask john if he is “coming”.
Instead use words like “join” or “attend”.”
Now THAT’s a post to start the weekend!!!
July 18th, 2008 at 8:47 pm
#225 njpatient: Where is gary? I thought he was on vacation last week.
July 18th, 2008 at 8:48 pm
218 cindy
“With fifth and sixth graders, when you are on recess duty and the bell rings you don’t say “Hold onto your balls.” You say “Hold on to your equipment.””
I hadn’t realized that that was how that particular euphemism was coined.
July 18th, 2008 at 8:53 pm
223: 3b,
My point is that if you’re skills aren’t tied to finance, you have more options. An HR staffer can manage staff anywhere, an admin can do their work in most industries, IT help desk, infrastructure same deal. Programmers with a heavy focus on financial systems may need to prove they can do more than that.
Plus, like I said, housing has been sucking a lot of money out of people. As the housing issues resolve, and people’s finances start getting better, more money will start goin