Wednesday Open Discussion

From the WSJ:

Lawmakers Agree on Outline of Big Housing Pact
Bill Includes Relief For Fannie, Freddie; Tense Negotiations
By MICHAEL R. CRITTENDEN and DAMIAN PALETTA
July 23, 2008; Page A3

House and Senate leaders have largely hammered out a compromise deal on a mammoth housing package that would permit the government to bolster Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in an emergency, overhaul supervision of the housing-finance giants and allow the government to insure up to $300 billion in refinanced mortgages.

The deal comes after tense negotiations and is likely to remain a source of contention when the House of Representatives votes Wednesday. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said Tuesday that a temporary measure to prop up Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could cost the government as much as $25 billion. And despite repeated White House veto threats, lawmakers plan to include a $4 billion program that would allow local governments to buy and rehabilitate foreclosed properties.

It remained unclear whether the White House would follow through on veto threats, particularly because administration officials have actively lobbied in support of major provisions.

“It’s a lengthy bill and we’re reviewing the language,” White House spokesman Tony Fratto said. “It’s clear that the Democrats chose to play politics with the legislation, and unfortunate that they’re doing it with legislation that will prevent systemic risk to our financial system.”

The bill is expected to easily pass the House and will likely pass the Senate. Many Democrats and Republicans have said fears about the fragile state of the financial markets necessitate action, and this bill is likely to be Congress’s most expansive attempt to address the nation’s housing woes this year.

“Nobody in America will agree with everything that is in this bill, but I think enough people in America will find it acceptable, so it will go to the president’s desk to be signed,” House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank (D., Mass.) said.

Lawmakers plan to raise the public-debt limit as part of the legislation to $10.6 trillion from $9.8 trillion. Congress must vote to increase the limit to account for additional borrowing, something it is loath to do, although it would have had to take that step this year even without the rescue plan for Fannie and Freddie, Democratic aides said.

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349 Responses to Wednesday Open Discussion

  1. HEHEHE says:

    Frist

  2. All Hype says:

    Look like another up day in the market. The short squeeze continues! Too bad nothing has changed for the financial institutions to give reason for such a turn around.

    I think I need to watch more Donald Luskin. He could explain the logic to me!

  3. RentinginNJ says:

    Tolls and traffic are down on N.J. Turnpike, Garden State Parkway

    Traffic and toll revenue are down on the New Jersey Turnpike and Garden State Parkway despite the summer tourism season.

    Toll transactions on the parkway in June were down 4.3 percent compared to the same period last year. Revenues dipped 4.8 percent on the turnpike compared with June 2007.

    Revenue was $11.4 million below projected levels for the six months ending in June.

    Turnpike Authority officials blame high gas prices, the economic downturn and lower than projected results from investments.

    http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2008/07/tolls_and_traffic_are_down_on.html

  4. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    U.S. MBA’s Mortgage Applications Index Decreased 6.2% Last Week

    Mortgage applications in the U.S. dropped 6.2 percent last week, led declining demand for loans to purchase homes as interest rates jumped.

    The Mortgage Bankers Association’s index of applications to buy a home or refinance a loan fell to 489.6 in the week ended July 18 from 522.2 the prior week. The group’s refinancing gauge declined 5.6 percent while the purchase index decreased 6.7 percent.

    The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage reached the highest level in a year. Higher borrowing costs, tighter lending standards and the possibility that property values may continue to fall are dissuading prospective buyers and may extend the housing slump, now in its third year.

    “There’s certainly no sign of recovery at this point,” James O’Sullivan, a senior economist at UBS Securities LLC in Stamford, Connecticut, said before the report.

  5. PGC says:

    No mention of a DUI so Wall St must be OK.

    Bush says Wall Street ‘got drunk’
    President George W. Bush said Wall Street had “got drunk” and was experiencing a hangover at a recent closed-door fundraiser in Houston in which he also made light of the US housing crisis

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ceb6551a-584c-11dd-b02f-000077b07658.html

  6. grim says:

    Damn you router

  7. Cindy says:

    (339) Pat – last thread

    People don’t go without,” Weiner said, “but they were in greater search of value.”

    Target is huge here. I don’t know anything about stocks or business models but they are servicing the young mom with one-stop shopping in California. (Cuts down on gas.)

    You can buy a new top, DVD, get eggs or bread, and buy diapers for the baby at the right price. You buy popcorn for the toddler right when you walk through the door (and a Starbucks for yourself) then proceed to do your shopping. That’s what the young moms at work tell me anyway….

  8. grim says:

    From the Record:

    Farmers fighting Highlands Act win a round in court

    Farmers challenging the Highlands Act won a potentially ground-shaking victory Tuesday when a state appeals court ruled they could challenge one of the principal standards that govern how densely a piece of property can be developed.

    For three years, farmers have been questioning the scientific methodology used by the state Department of Environmental Protection in establishing septic densities in the Highlands region. The appellate panel ruled that the farmers had a right to question the DEP in court and ordered a hearing within the next 150 days.

    “The court’s decision is a victory for Highlands landowners, especially those in the Preservation Area,” said Richard Nieuwenhuis, president of the New Jersey Farm Bureau, which brought suit against the DEP. “The septic density standards are at the core of the DEP rules, and if kept as adopted, pose the greatest threat to landowner rights and equity in the region.”

  9. BC Bob says:

    An energy related firm Chap 11? HMMM? Me gut tells me that they had a massive short position, spec or hedge? The panic melt up last month, crude, may have been this firm scrambling to cover its panties. It was very strange witnessing the spreads go out while the front month exploded. Why were/are producers bidding for storage? In the meantime, the dolts in DC are blaming the run up on specs. It’s the damn hedgers, short covering.

    “SemGroup L.P. announced that the Company and certain of its North American subsidiaries have filed voluntary petitions for reorganization today under Chapter 11 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code as well as an application for creditor protection under the Companies’ Creditors Arrangement Act in Canada.”

    “SemGroup, L.P., is a midstream service company providing the energy industry the means to move products from the wellhead to the wholesale marketplace. SemGroup provides diversified services for end users and consumers of crude oil, natural gas, natural gas liquids, refined products and asphalt. Services include purchasing, selling, processing, transporting, terminaling and storing energy. SemGroup serves customers in the United States, Canada, Mexico, Wales, Switzerland and Vietnam.”

    http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/semgroup-lp-files-chapter-11/story.aspx?guid=%7B390BBF65-5FF6-4A7C-9754-A9E67B64F62F%7D&dist=hppr

  10. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    House Lawmakers to Vote on Fannie-Freddie Rescue Plan Today

    The House of Representatives is set to vote today on a rescue plan for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac after U.S. lawmakers reached a deal on legislation aimed at alleviating the worst housing recession in a quarter century.

    “The package we have got is fully acceptable” to the Treasury, Representative Barney Frank, a Massachusetts Democrat who chairs the House Financial Services Committee, said late yesterday. Legislators crafted the agreement nine days after Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson asked for powers to inject capital into Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

    The agreement increases the likelihood Paulson will get the authority this week, after he lobbied lawmakers to overcome concerns about taxpayer liability. The Treasury chief argued that the backstop for the beleaguered mortgage companies was critical to help safeguard U.S. financial market stability.

    “It’s important to get this legislation in place, and Congress and Paulson have done well to put together a workmanlike bill,” said Peter Wallison, a former Treasury general counsel who is now a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington.

    Lawmakers added the provisions to legislation that would create a stronger regulator for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and expand federal efforts to stem mortgage defaults. Frank introduced the bill to reduce foreclosures in April.

    Bush administration officials are reviewing the 694-page bill. Frank told reporters in Washington the House will vote today, with the Senate expected to take it up tomorrow.

  11. Sean says:

    Sure increase the debt limit some more and the Congressional Budget Office estimates of 25 Billion is pure speculation since the 25 billion only runs through next year.

    Got gold?

  12. John says:

    SOV: Q2 Earnings Call @ 10:30 ET Today [delayed]
    07:50 a.m. 07/23/2008

    Interesting, who delays a bank conf earnings call 2.5 hours before unless their is blockbuster good or bad news. even more interesting SOV had a big run on the upside in last 5 days with no news coming out. Something smells fishy.

  13. #9 – Cindy, Target is the same in NY/NJ as well. More upscale than Walmart but same basic all-in-one concept.

  14. thatBIGwindow says:

    grim, you know what would really be helpful? A chart with average sale price by month on the county level for the past 15 years.

  15. kettle1 says:

    Lost

    From last night,

    I agree with SAS, it sounds like you need to work on your form and position. When you are firing the weapon, it should be part of your body, an extension, not a tool in your hands. The difference is, that when it is an extension of your body, you move with it and do not waste energy trying to “control” it.
    Practice and instruction by an experienced individual will help.
    Another tip, fire on the exhale, breath slowly and then completely exhale in a relaxed manner. Once you have emptied all the air from your lungs, hold you breath and gently pull back on the trigger. Not with your finger tip, but with the back side of the “pad” on your finger tip, near the first joint. you should squeeze slowly enough so that it is a fluid motion. after the weapon fires inhale.
    breathing and trigger squeeze are 2 of the more common mistakes in marksmanship. The next big point, and the most important is sight picture.
    This concludes the NJ RE report marksmanship course for today…..

  16. John says:

    Target is like that near me too, the people with teeth shop at target and the people without teeth shop at walmart.

  17. John says:

    July 23 (Bloomberg) — Fannie Mae, the largest U.S. mortgage finance company, couldn’t find a buyer who would pay $6,900 for the three-bedroom house at 1916 Prospect St. in Flint, Michigan. So broker Raymond Megie, who is handling the foreclosure sale, advised cutting the price to $5,000.

    Megie still couldn’t sell it. “There’s oversupply,” he said. The home sold in 2005 for $110,000.

  18. thatBIGwindow says:

    I wish Two Guys was still in business…remember them?

  19. #20 – Vividly. Mom would takes us to the one in Middletown.

  20. Cindy says:

    Fresno Bee by Stanford Nax 7/23 Front page

    “Foreclosures hit record heights, especially in North Valley”

    “Foreclosures rose to record levels in figures released Tuesday – but amid the gloom were glimmers of hope.”

    “The number of households in Fresno County that defaulted on mortgages last quarter more than doubled from a year ago, La Jolla-based DataQuick Information Systems reported.”

    “The on-line tracking service said the 2,821 default notices represented a 104.4% increase from the April-to-June period in 2007. Statewide, the number of filings soared almost 125%, with the San Joaquin Valley seeing some of the largest increases. Those included 201.6% in Merced County, 169.4% in Stanislaus County and 141.8% in San Joaquin County.”

    “Last quarter’s defaults were the highest in Dataquick’s records, which go back to 1992. The good news is that statewide, the number was up only 6% from the first quarter, which could indicate foreclosures are peaking or that more homeowners are working out their problems with lenders, Dataquick officials said.”

  21. kettle1 says:

    tin foil hat time….

    World’s Biggest Food Storage Supplier Empty Through ALL 2009

    from article:
    One idea: the military. Tensions are ramping up with Iran and news segments debate whether or not we will implement a preemptive strike in conjunction with Israel.
    http://standeyo.com/NEWS/08_Food_Water/080721.Mountain.House.html

    note, i am not THAT crazy, just thought it ands a little flavor to the board….

  22. John says:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=conewsstory&refer=conews&tkr=SOV:US&sid=amlKrr8.ZztQ

    sov beat the street – they made me nervous as i was buying their bonds last week at 11% when I saw their stock price popping ahead of news.

  23. Herring123 says:

    A while back someone (perhaps Grim) posted links to bank REO websites – can someone please post that link again (the webstes were listed in the comments)? Many thanks

  24. lostinny says:

    17 Kettle
    When I was at the range, I was joking that I didn’t kow yoga would be helpful there of all places. But that’s pretty much what you just described. I do need to work on lots of things. But this was my first time. I’m not sure how often I will practice or if I will ever buy a gun. But it was something that I’m glad I got to experience.
    We could always have a mini gtg at a range. :)

  25. Sean says:

    Put your guns down boys and stop playing around there is work to do.

    Congress is about to pass the Foreclosure Prevention Act (FHA,Fannie, Freddie etc), very nice of them to do so and help all those poor borrowers with their underwater homes.

    Nancy Pelosi has threatened to skin Bush alive if he does not sign it, and Congress may have the veto override anyway.

    More important than the bailout for the banks is the little blurb contained in the forclosure prevention act TITLE X – an interesting section on –CLEAN ENERGY TAX STIMULUS!

    H.R.3221
    Foreclosure Prevention Act of 2008 (Engrossed Amendment as Agreed to by Senate)

    TITLE X–CLEAN ENERGY TAX STIMULUS
    SEC. 1001. SHORT TITLE; ETC.
    (a) Short Title- This title may be cited as the `Clean Energy Tax Stimulus Act of 2008′.
    (b) Amendment of 1986 Code- Except as otherwise expressly provided, whenever in this title an amendment or repeal is expressed in terms of an amendment to, or repeal of, a section or other provision, the reference shall be considered to be made to a section or other provision of the Internal Revenue Code of 1986.
    Subtitle A–Extension of Clean Energy Production Incentives
    SEC. 1011. EXTENSION AND MODIFICATION OF RENEWABLE ENERGY PRODUCTION TAX CREDIT.
    (a) Extension of Credit- Each of the following provisions of section 45(d) (relating to qualified facilities) is amended by striking `January 1, 2009′ and inserting `January 1, 2010′:
    (1) Paragraph (1).
    (2) Clauses (i) and (ii) of paragraph (2)(A).
    (3) Clauses (i)(I) and (ii) of paragraph (3)(A).
    (4) Paragraph (4).
    (5) Paragraph (5).
    (6) Paragraph (6).
    (7) Paragraph (7).
    (8) Paragraph (8).
    (9) Subparagraphs (A) and (B) of paragraph (9).
    (b) Production Credit for Electricity Produced From Marine Renewables-
    (1) IN GENERAL- Paragraph (1) of section 45(c) (relating to resources) is amended by striking `and’ at the end of subparagraph (G), by striking the period at the end of subparagraph (H) and inserting `, and’, and by adding at the end the following new subparagraph:
    `(I) marine and hydrokinetic renewable energy.’.
    (2) MARINE RENEWABLES- Subsection (c) of section 45 is amended by adding at the end the following new paragraph:
    `(10) MARINE AND HYDROKINETIC RENEWABLE ENERGY-
    `(A) IN GENERAL- The term `marine and hydrokinetic renewable energy’ means energy derived from–
    `(i) waves, tides, and currents in oceans, estuaries, and tidal areas,
    `(ii) free flowing water in rivers, lakes, and streams,
    `(iii) free flowing water in an irrigation system, canal, or other man-made channel, including projects that utilize nonmechanical structures to accelerate the flow of water for electric power production purposes, or
    `(iv) differentials in ocean temperature (ocean thermal energy conversion).
    `(B) EXCEPTIONS- Such term shall not include any energy which is derived from any source which utilizes a dam, diversionary structure (except as provided in subparagraph (A)(iii)), or impoundment for electric power production purposes.’.
    (3) DEFINITION OF FACILITY- Subsection (d) of section 45 is amended by adding at the end the following new paragraph:
    `(11) MARINE AND HYDROKINETIC RENEWABLE ENERGY FACILITIES- In the case of a facility producing electricity from marine and hydrokinetic renewable energy, the term `qualified facility’ means any facility owned by the taxpayer–
    `(A) which has a nameplate capacity rating of at least 150 kilowatts, and
    `(B) which is originally placed in service on or after the date of the enactment of this paragraph and before January 1, 2010.’.
    (4) CREDIT RATE- Subparagraph (A) of section 45(b)(4) is amended by striking `or (9)’ and inserting `(9), or (11)’.
    (5) COORDINATION WITH SMALL IRRIGATION POWER- Paragraph (5) of section 45(d), as amended by subsection (a), is amended by striking `January 1, 2010′ and inserting `the date of the enactment of paragraph (11)’.
    (c) Sales of Electricity to Regulated Public Utilities Treated as Sales to Unrelated Persons- Section 45(e)(4) (relating to related persons) is amended by adding at the end the following new sentence: `A taxpayer shall be treated as selling electricity to an unrelated person if such electricity is sold to a regulated public utility (as defined in section 7701(a)(33).’.
    (d) Trash Facility Clarification- Paragraph (7) of section 45(d) is amended–
    (1) by striking `facility which burns’ and inserting `facility (other than a facility described in paragraph (6)) which uses’, and
    (2) by striking `COMBUSTION’.
    (e) Effective Dates-
    (1) EXTENSION- The amendments made by subsection (a) shall apply to property originally placed in service after December 31, 2008.
    (2) MODIFICATIONS- The amendments made by subsections (b) and (c) shall apply to electricity produced and sold after the date of the enactment of this Act, in taxable years ending after such date.
    (3) TRASH FACILITY CLARIFICATION- The amendments made by subsection (d) shall apply to electricity produced and sold before, on, or after December 31, 2007.
    SEC. 1012. EXTENSION AND MODIFICATION OF SOLAR ENERGY AND FUEL CELL INVESTMENT TAX CREDIT.
    (a) Extension of Credit-
    (1) SOLAR ENERGY PROPERTY- Paragraphs (2)(A)(i)(II) and (3)(A)(ii) of section 48(a) (relating to energy credit) are each amended by striking `January 1, 2009′ and inserting `January 1, 2017′.
    (2) FUEL CELL PROPERTY- Subparagraph (E) of section 48(c)(1) (relating to qualified fuel cell property) is amended by striking `December 31, 2008′ and inserting `December 31, 2017′.
    (3) QUALIFIED MICROTURBINE PROPERTY- Subparagraph (E) of section 48(c)(2) (relating to qualified microturbine property) is amended by striking `December 31, 2008′ and inserting `December 31, 2017′.
    (b) Allowance of Energy Credit Against Alternative Minimum Tax- Subparagraph (B) of section 38(c)(4) (relating to specified credits) is amended by striking `and’ at the end of clause (iii), by striking the period at the end of clause (iv) and inserting `, and’, and by adding at the end the following new clause:
    `(v) the credit determined under section 46 to the extent that such credit is attributable to the energy credit determined under section 48.’.
    (c) Repeal of Dollar Per Kilowatt Limitation for Fuel Cell Property-
    (1) IN GENERAL- Section 48(c)(1) (relating to qualified fuel cell), as amended by subsection (a)(2), is amended by striking subparagraph (B) and by redesignating subparagraphs (C), (D), and (E) as subparagraphs (B), (C), and (D), respectively.
    (2) CONFORMING AMENDMENT- Section 48(a)(1) is amended by striking `paragraphs (1)(B) and (2)(B) of subsection (c)’ and inserting `subsection (c)(2)(B)’.
    (d) Public Electric Utility Property Taken Into Account-
    (1) IN GENERAL- Paragraph (3) of section 48(a) is amended by striking the second sentence thereof.
    (2) CONFORMING AMENDMENTS-
    (A) Paragraph (1) of section 48(c), as amended by this section, is amended by striking subparagraph (C) and redesignating subparagraph (D) as subparagraph (C).
    (B) Paragraph (2) of section 48(c), as amended by subsection (a)(3), is amended by striking subparagraph (D) and redesignating subparagraph (E) as subparagraph (D).
    (e) Effective Dates-
    (1) EXTENSION- The amendments made by subsection (a) shall take effect on the date of the enactment of this Act.
    (2) ALLOWANCE AGAINST ALTERNATIVE MINIMUM TAX- The amendments made by subsection (b) shall apply to credits determined under section 46 of the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 in taxable years beginning after the date of the enactment of this Act and to carrybacks of such credits.
    (3) FUEL CELL PROPERTY AND PUBLIC ELECTRIC UTILITY PROPERTY- The amendments made by subsections (c) and (d) shall apply to periods after the date of the enactment of this Act, in taxable years ending after such date, under rules similar to the rules of section 48(m) of the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 (as in effect on the day before the date of the enactment of the Revenue Reconciliation Act of 1990).
    SEC. 1013. EXTENSION AND MODIFICATION OF RESIDENTIAL ENERGY EFFICIENT PROPERTY CREDIT.
    (a) Extension- Section 25D(g) (relating to termination) is amended by striking `December 31, 2008′ and inserting `December 31, 2009′.
    (b) No Dollar Limitation for Credit for Solar Electric Property-
    (1) IN GENERAL- Section 25D(b)(1) (relating to maximum credit) is amended by striking subparagraph (A) and by redesignating subparagraphs (B) and (C) as subparagraphs (A) and (B), respectively.
    (2) CONFORMING AMENDMENTS- Section 25D(e)(4) is amended–
    (A) by striking clause (i) in subparagraph (A),
    (B) by redesignating clauses (ii) and (iii) in subparagraph (A) as clauses (i) and (ii), respectively, and
    (C) by striking `, (2),’ in subparagraph (C).
    (c) Credit Allowed Against Alternative Minimum Tax-
    (1) IN GENERAL- Subsection (c) of section 25D is amended to read as follows:
    `(c) Limitation Based on Amount of Tax; Carryforward of Unused Credit-
    `(1) LIMITATION BASED ON AMOUNT OF TAX- In the case of a taxable year to which section 26(a)(2) does not apply, the credit allowed under subsection (a) for the taxable year shall not exceed the excess of–
    `(A) the sum of the regular tax liability (as defined in section 26(b)) plus the tax imposed by section 55, over
    `(B) the sum of the credits allowable under this subpart (other than this section) and section 27 for the taxable year.
    `(2) CARRYFORWARD OF UNUSED CREDIT-
    `(A) RULE FOR YEARS IN WHICH ALL PERSONAL CREDITS ALLOWED AGAINST REGULAR AND ALTERNATIVE MINIMUM TAX- In the case of a taxable year to which section 26(a)(2) applies, if the credit allowable under subsection (a) exceeds the limitation imposed by section 26(a)(2) for such taxable year reduced by the sum of the credits allowable under this subpart (other than this section), such excess shall be carried to the succeeding taxable year and added to the credit allowable under subsection (a) for such succeeding taxable year.
    `(B) RULE FOR OTHER YEARS- In the case of a taxable year to which section 26(a)(2) does not apply, if the credit allowable under subsection (a) exceeds the limitation imposed by paragraph (1) for such taxable year, such excess shall be carried to the succeeding taxable year and added to the credit allowable under subsection (a) for such succeeding taxable year.’.
    (2) CONFORMING AMENDMENTS-
    (A) Section 23(b)(4)(B) is amended by inserting `and section 25D’ after `this section’.
    (B) Section 24(b)(3)(B) is amended by striking `and 25B’ and inserting `, 25B, and 25D’.
    (C) Section 25B(g)(2) is amended by striking `section 23′ and inserting `sections 23 and 25D’.
    (D) Section 26(a)(1) is amended by striking `and 25B’ and inserting `25B, and 25D’.
    (d) Effective Date-
    (1) IN GENERAL- The amendments made by this section shall apply to taxable years beginning after December 31, 2007.
    (2) APPLICATION OF EGTRRA SUNSET- The amendments made by subparagraphs (A) and (B) of subsection (c)(2) shall be subject to title IX of the Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001 in the same manner as the provisions of such Act to which such amendments relate.
    SEC. 1014. EXTENSION AND MODIFICATION OF CREDIT FOR CLEAN RENEWABLE ENERGY BONDS.
    (a) Extension- Section 54(m) (relating to termination) is amended by striking `December 31, 2008′ and inserting `December 31, 2009′.
    (b) Increase in National Limitation- Section 54(f) (relating to limitation on amount of bonds designated) is amended–
    (1) by inserting `, and for the period beginning after the date of the enactment of the Clean Energy Tax Stimulus Act of 2008 and ending before January 1, 2010, $400,000,000′ after `$1,200,000,000′ in paragraph (1),
    (2) by striking `$750,000,000 of the’ in paragraph (2) and inserting `$750,000,000 of the $1,200,000,000′, and
    (3) by striking `bodies’ in paragraph (2) and inserting `bodies, and except that the Secretary may not allocate more than 1/3 of the $400,000,000 national clean renewable energy bond limitation to finance qualified projects of qualified borrowers which are public power providers nor more than 1/3 of such limitation to finance qualified projects of qualified borrowers which are mutual or cooperative electric companies described in section 501(c)(12) or section 1381(a)(2)(C)’.
    (c) Public Power Providers Defined- Section 54(j) is amended–
    (1) by adding at the end the following new paragraph:
    `(6) PUBLIC POWER PROVIDER- The term `public power provider’ means a State utility with a service obligation, as such terms are defined in section 217 of the Federal Power Act (as in effect on the date of the enactment of this paragraph).’, and
    (2) by inserting `; Public Power Provider’ before the period at the end of the heading.
    (d) Technical Amendment- The third sentence of section 54(e)(2) is amended by striking `subsection (l)(6)’ and inserting `subsection (l)(5)’.
    (e) Effective Date- The amendments made by this section shall apply to bonds issued after the date of the enactment of this Act.
    SEC. 1015. EXTENSION OF SPECIAL RULE TO IMPLEMENT FERC RESTRUCTURING POLICY.
    (a) Qualifying Electric Transmission Transaction-
    (1) IN GENERAL- Section 451(i)(3) (defining qualifying electric transmission transaction) is amended by striking `January 1, 2008′ and inserting `January 1, 2010′.
    (2) EFFECTIVE DATE- The amendment made by this subsection shall apply to transactions after December 31, 2007.
    (b) Independent Transmission Company-
    (1) IN GENERAL- Section 451(i)(4)(B)(ii) (defining independent transmission company) is amended by striking `December 31, 2007′ and inserting `the date which is 2 years after the date of such transaction’.
    (2) EFFECTIVE DATE- The amendment made by this subsection shall take effect as if included in the amendments made by section 909 of the American Jobs Creation Act of 2004.
    Subtitle B–Extension of Incentives to Improve Energy Efficiency
    SEC. 1021. EXTENSION AND MODIFICATION OF CREDIT FOR ENERGY EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENTS TO EXISTING HOMES.
    (a) Extension of Credit- Section 25C(g) (relating to termination) is amended by striking `December 31, 2007′ and inserting `December 31, 2009′.
    (b) Qualified Biomass Fuel Property-
    (1) IN GENERAL- Section 25C(d)(3) is amended–
    (A) by striking `and’ at the end of subparagraph (D),
    (B) by striking the period at the end of subparagraph (E) and inserting `, and’, and
    (C) by adding at the end the following new subparagraph:
    `(F) a stove which uses the burning of biomass fuel to heat a dwelling unit located in the United States and used as a residence by the taxpayer, or to heat water for use in such a dwelling unit, and which has a thermal efficiency rating of at least 75 percent.’.
    (2) BIOMASS FUEL- Section 25C(d) (relating to residential energy property expenditures) is amended by adding at the end the following new paragraph:
    `(6) BIOMASS FUEL- The term `biomass fuel’ means any plant-derived fuel available on a renewable or recurring basis, including agricultural crops and trees, wood and wood waste and residues (including wood pellets), plants (including aquatic plants), grasses, residues, and fibers.’.
    (c) Modifications of Standards for Energy-Efficient Building Property-
    (1) ELECTRIC HEAT PUMPS- Subparagraph (B) of section 25C(d)(3) is amended to read as follows:
    `(A) an electric heat pump which achieves the highest efficiency tier established by the Consortium for Energy Efficiency, as in effect on January 1, 2008.’.
    (2) CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONERS- Section 25C(d)(3)(D) is amended by striking `2006′ and inserting `2008′.
    (3) WATER HEATERS- Subparagraph (E) of section 25C(d) is amended to read as follows:
    `(E) a natural gas, propane, or oil water heater which has either an energy factor of at least 0.80 or a thermal efficiency of at least 90 percent.’.
    (4) OIL FURNACES AND HOT WATER BOILERS- Paragraph (4) of section 25C(d) is amended to read as follows:
    `(4) QUALIFIED NATURAL GAS, PROPANE, AND OIL FURNACES AND HOT WATER BOILERS-
    `(A) QUALIFIED NATURAL GAS FURNACE- The term `qualified natural gas furnace’ means any natural gas furnace which achieves an annual fuel utilization efficiency rate of not less than 95.
    `(B) QUALIFIED NATURAL GAS HOT WATER BOILER- The term `qualified natural gas hot water boiler’ means any natural gas hot water boiler which achieves an annual fuel utilization efficiency rate of not less than 90.
    `(C) QUALIFIED PROPANE FURNACE- The term `qualified propane furnace’ means any propane furnace which achieves an annual fuel utilization efficiency rate of not less than 95.
    `(D) QUALIFIED PROPANE HOT WATER BOILER- The term `qualified propane hot water boiler’ means any propane hot water boiler which achieves an annual fuel utilization efficiency rate of not less than 90.
    `(E) QUALIFIED OIL FURNACES- The term `qualified oil furnace’ means any oil furnace which achieves an annual fuel utilization efficiency rate of not less than 90.
    `(F) QUALIFIED OIL HOT WATER BOILER- The term `qualified oil hot water boiler’ means any oil hot water boiler which achieves an annual fuel utilization efficiency rate of not less than 90.’.
    (d) Effective Date- The amendments made this section shall apply to expenditures made after December 31, 2007.
    SEC.

    http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/F?c110:6:./temp/~c1103wcinP:e165886:

  26. lostinny says:

    Grim my 28 is in mod

  27. rhymingrealtor says:

    PGC -6

    I real love they way GWB can find humor in other people’s hardships, from his college days, war service ( hah ) and now his days as our selfless leader. The words sociopath/narcasist come to mind.

    TBW

    Seems you’re from the same area as BC Bob and I.

    I wish Two Guys was still in business…remember them?

    KL

  28. Stu says:

    Lost,

    That’s because Sean’s 26 has overloaded the system.

  29. thatBIGwindow says:

    KL: Originally from the prestigious town of River Edge – now living in S. Bergen County

  30. Clotpoll says:

    kl (29)-

    He is a sadistic sociopath.

    Must’ve been a real champ when he was hitting the sauce…

  31. Chuchundra says:

    Herring123, Re: 25 — click on my name and then click on the REO directory.

  32. lostinny says:

    27 Sean
    I guess that means the girls can still play with the guns?

  33. kettle1 says:

    moscow doesnt want to share their oil anymore…

    MOSCOW, July 22 (RIA Novosti) – Russia’s government has approved a rise in Russian oil export duty of $97.8 to a record $495.9 per metric ton as of August 1, the government press service said on Tuesday.

    that comes to about $75/barrel of oil

  34. Sean says:

    Re #34 I have a policy of never telling women what to do.

  35. still_looking says:

    26 Lost,

    The NJ Real Estate, stroller, survivalist, ballistics, finance, energy, social studies, education, and spirit report!!

    :-)

    sl

  36. kettle1 says:

    lost,

    breathing control and muscle relaxation are key to marksmanship. it can be the hardest parts for many people. So yes, Yoga will actually help wit marksmanship.

    Thats just the tip of the iceberg though. to really get into it you need to start understanding the ballistic characteristics of different firearms and types of ammo.

  37. lostinny says:

    37 Sean
    Smart man. :)

  38. lostinny says:

    38 sl
    There ya go!

  39. lostinny says:

    39 Kettle
    That’s the advanced course. I’m way beginner.

  40. kettle1 says:

    I’m in a dark mood today, so here is a little more tinfoil hatting for you..

    Half a Million Plastic Coffins?

    Yep, these are cheap plastic coffins. Hundreds of thousands of them. Don’t believe it?
    Why coffins? Why in the middle of Georgia?

    Well, apparently the Government is expecting a half million people to die relatively soon, and the Atlanta Airport is a major airline traffic hub, probably the biggest in the country, which means Georgia is a prime base to conduct military operations and coordination.

    It is also the home of the CDC, the Center for Disease Control. I don’t want to alarm anyone, but usually you don’t buy 500,000 plastic coffins “just in case something happens,” you buy them because you know something is going to happen.

    These air tight seal containers would be perfect to bury victims of plague or biological warfare in, wouldn’t they?

    http://www.prisonplanet.com/half-a-million-plastic-coffins.html

  41. lostinny says:

    43 Kettle
    Where can I get that hat?

  42. Fiddy Cents on the Dollar says:

    Re: Plastic Coffins

    That’s an awful lot of petrochemical product out of the pipeline…..does the $40 a barrel crowd know about this yet??

  43. bairen says:

    #43 kettle1,

    I’d like one with a pretty mural on the side. Maybe the mountains of Taiwan.

  44. All Hype says:

    Hey, where is ReinvestorX? He is about to get his bailout. Too bad it does not help him!

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080723/ap_on_go_pr_wh/congress_housing

  45. Rich In NNJ says:

    River Vale Comp Killer!

    SOLD: 641 WOODSIDE AVE $760,000 8/31/2005

    MLS#: 2812707
    Orig List: $759,000 3/31/2008
    SOLD: $720,000 7/18/2008

  46. Mike NJ says:

    Kettle,

    Interesting story from the ground. I still do not expect Bush to strike with Israel. It just does not make any sense with the current positives (Syria, progress in Iraq, etc) in the gulf region. So what if Iran gets the nukes in 2-5 years. What is the worst they can do, nuke Israel? I don’t think they have the stones. That would mean instant suicide. Even if they do the region has been nothing but trouble for the past 60 years. Maybe a little radioactivity for the next million years might serve to cool everyone off.

  47. Rich In NNJ says:

    Cliffside Park FUTURE Comp Killer!

    SOLD: 268 WAYNE AVE $410,000 2/6/2004

    MLS#: 2831119
    Orig List: $729,000 1/2/2007
    Last List: $340,000 7/22/2008

  48. Secondary Market says:

    @44
    they are not coffins, they are housing shelters for the recently foreclosed.

  49. kettle1 says:

    rregarding oil prices….

    please correct me if i am wrong but

    royalty oil from the federal leases which are owned by all of us is roughly 1/6 of the gross production. In 2007 the gross production was over 584,000,000 bbls from federal leases. This oil is titled to the federal gov’t and is sold into the market place by the gov’t just like Exxon-Mobil does. And back to the SPR, for a moment: a lot of the oil pumped into the SPR was royalty oil as the gov’t also has the right to take it in-kind.
    So if the government was REALLY serious about wanting cheaper gas, then they cut drastically undercut the spot price of oil by selling the royalty oil for pennies on the dollar. My understanding is that there are also requirements that royalty oil not be sold on the world market. I havent been able to find anything on this point so i could be wrong.

    I do not think we should do this. i think we should do as matt simmons suggested and set a price FLOOR. But if the politicians were really serious and not just pandering and distracting the public, they have the ability to make short term changes.

    Oh, and about 2/3’s of the SPT (strategic Petroleum reserve) belongs to the DOD for the military’s use, not for filling up your SUV.

  50. Stu says:

    “Even if they do the region has been nothing but trouble for the past 60 years. Maybe a little radioactivity for the next million years might serve to cool everyone off.”

    Could you imagine the oil futures?

  51. Rich In NNJ says:

    #52 in moderation due to a certain “gold coast” town name

  52. Hobokenite says:

    kettle,

    “moscow doesnt want to share their oil anymore…”

    Or does the government just want more of the pie?

    I suspect the latter. So what happens if oil goes back to $80/barrel? It won’t be cost effective to export oil, so they’ll get nothing instead.

  53. Rich In NNJ says:

    Ridgefield Park FUTURE Comp Killer!

    SOLD: 308 5TH ST $334,000 1/9/2004

    MLS#: 2831125
    Orig List: $389,900 6/1/2007 ($439,000 9/20/2005)
    Last List: $309,000 7/22/2008

  54. kettle1 says:

    lost 45,

    you might want to rethink that new hat! From MIT: tin foil hats amplify radio frequencies used by the government.


    Abstract
    Among a fringe community of paranoids, aluminum helmets serve as the protective measure of choice against invasive radio signals. We investigate the efficacy of three aluminum helmet designs on a sample group of four individuals. Using a $250,000 network analyser, we find that although on average all helmets attenuate invasive radio frequencies in either directions (either emanating from an outside source, or emanating from the cranium of the subject), certain frequencies are in fact greatly amplified. These amplified frequencies coincide with radio bands reserved for government use according to the Federal Communication Commission (FCC). Statistical evidence suggests the use of helmets may in fact enhance the government’s invasive abilities. We speculate that the government may in fact have started the helmet craze for this reason.

    http://people.csail.mit.edu/rahimi/helmet/

  55. BC Bob says:

    “It hands the Treasury Department the power to extend the government-sponsored mortgage companies an unlimited line of credit and buy an unspecified amount of their stock, if necessary, to prop up Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac”

    From # 49,

    First they target long specs in crude, then short sellers in financials. Now, they legislate a position in the market. True manipulation, at its best.

  56. John says:

    That 500,000 coffins is the most effective way to let the subprime sludge stay in their houses after we auction them off to the chinese. With food so expensive we can also cut pack on pallbearers with plactic coffins and skinny people, heck I can deliver them to the grave like a girl on rollerskates at a drive in during the 1950s.

  57. jamil says:

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121677050160675397.html?mod=opinion_main_commentaries

    “The Fannie Mae Gang”

    Yet as studies have shown, about half of the implicit taxpayer subsidy for Fan and Fred is pocketed by shareholders and management. According to the Federal Reserve, the half that goes to homeowners adds up to a mere seven basis points on mortgages. In return for this, Fannie was able to pay no fewer than 21 of its executives more than $1 million in 2002, and in 2003 Mr. Raines pocketed more than $20 million. Fannie’s left-wing defenders are underwriters of crony capitalism, not affordable housing.


    The abiding lesson here is what happens when you combine private profit with government power. You create political monsters that are protected both by journalists on the left and pseudo-capitalists on Wall Street, by liberal Democrats and country-club Republicans. Even now, after all of their dishonesty and failure, Fannie and Freddie could emerge from this taxpayer rescue more powerful than ever. Campaigning to spare taxpayers from that result would represent genuine “change,” not that either presidential candidate seems interested

  58. Rich In NNJ says:

    Wyckoff FUTURE Comp Killer!

    SOLD: 628 WISHING WELL RD $1,125,000 9/16/2006

    MLS#: 2831142
    Orig List: $1,249,000 6/2/2008
    Last List: $1,095,000 7/22/2008

  59. kettle1 says:

    hobo 56,

    i think it is both, The russians want a bigger piece of the pie, and they want to put negative pressure on oil exports. Russia is currently fighting with BP over oil development, and i see this as a sort of extension of that.

  60. thatBIGwindow says:

    Cloverfield must be coming… oh noes

  61. Rich In NNJ says:

    River Edge FUTURE Comp Killer!

    SOLD: 265 MONROE AVE $500,000 8/2/2005

    MLS#: 2829678
    Orig List: $524,902 8/15/2006
    Last List: $449,000 7/22/2008

  62. kettle1 says:

    Sean,

    You me or all 300,00 million of us are not going to stop the fannie mae bailout/buyout bill. That is a given at this point as the politicians are terrified of the looming financial crisis and see this a way to say “look we are helping you”. Oh and the lobbyists have more then paid for this bill already.

  63. BC Bob says:

    Jamil [61],

    Great article.

  64. Sean says:

    kettle1 – the housing bailout is needed to save Democracy, never mind that the Gov is going to give the banks 300+ Billion for junk loans.

  65. kettle1 says:

    sean

    the housing bailout is needed to save Democracy

    really? IS RE101 using your handle?

  66. jamil says:

    51 mike:
    “still do not expect Bush to strike with Israel. It just does not make any sense with the current positives (Syria, progress in Iraq, etc) in the gulf region. So what if Iran gets the nukes in 2-5 years. What is the worst they can do, nuke Israel? I”

    Yeah. that doesn’t sound that bad.

    I agree that Bush is unlikely to act, it is easier for him just to leave the mess to the next guy (unfortunately), because of the political pressure and hatred towards him.

    Anyway, given that Syria was caught building nukes in the desert (destroyed by Isreal air strike), it may be hard to see positives, but if you pretend to be winnie the pooh, maybe you can see them. Iran is already bombing jewish targets around the globe (like the cultural center in Argentina) in addition to giving training and weapons to Hezbollah, Hamas and Jihad so probably once they get the nukes they end all that.. You are also right about them not wanting suicide. That’t just not what they are and how they operate.. they are just waiting for the reappearance of the Twelfth Imam which will be preceded by a number of “prophetic events during 3 years of horrendous world chaos, tyranny and oppression”.

    Sounds pretty harmless stuff.

  67. painhrtz says:

    Ket, You remember that little fiasco we won called the cold war. Well the fact that went around gloating to the world how we econimically destroyed the Communist monster really pissed them off. I view what equates to a 75 dollar tariff on Russian exported oil as them trying to push us over the brink. The Russians know our economy is at a tipping point and it would be a source of great pride for them if we fell a scant 25 years later. The government is painted in a corner with no exits and this housing bailout will be further strain on the broke american taxpayer. Sometimes I wish you guys/gals weren’t always right!

    Got Ammo?

  68. kettle1 says:

    Mike,

    I dont care if iran gets nukes. but whether or not that is legit, it is still the basis for the current geopolitical tensions. Besides if there is a strike against iran, i think it will be isreal making the first strike ( with US permission of course as they would have to cross US controlled Iraqi airspace)

  69. randyj says:

    there go the financials again. ALL IS WELL FOLKS. and gold? silly crap that they make trinkets out of… worthless stuff!!

    /sarcasm off

    i’m SHOCKED by the size of this move in the XLF… pure manipulation… Wall street is like a rigged casino. I feel this way and i haven’t lost a penny in the past week!!

  70. Hobokenite says:

    “I view what equates to a 75 dollar tariff on Russian exported oil as them trying to push us over the brink.”

    Yes, but oil is traded in an open market. Russian oil won’t be $75 more expensive. The producers of the oil will just get $75 less.

  71. PGC says:

    Someones having a tantrum in their sandbox.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/jul/23/johnmccain.barackobama

    I think the bigger issue here is that the comments from the Iraq government on withdrawal were the final nail in the McCain’s campaign coffin. He had always pushed himself as a better choice on foreign diplomacy and military leadership. His almost taunting of his opponent to go to Iraq has backfired in a big way.

    Regardless of your affiliations, you have got to admire the politics.

  72. kettle1 says:

    Ethanol falling out of favor????

    Uprising Against the Ethanol Mandate
    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/23/business/23ethanol.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

    Gov. Rick Perry of Texas is asking the Environmental Protection Agency to temporarily waive regulations requiring the oil industry to blend ever-increasing amounts of ethanol into gasoline. A decision is expected in the next few weeks.

    His request for an emergency waiver cutting the ethanol mandate to 4.5 billion gallons, from the 9 billion gallons required this year and the 10.5 billion required in 2009, is backed by a coalition of food, livestock and environmental groups.

  73. ben says:

    heh, I can’t believe we trained an entire generation to think that gold is worthless.

  74. Sean says:

    re: #72 and #75 – Every wonder why Congress has never authorized the sale of long range heavy bombers to Israel?

    They current have a force of 102 Lockheed Martin F-16I fighter-bombers which began delivery in 2004.

    They have modified F-161 jets and they have about an 820 km non-refueling radius of operation, but a glance at a map reveals that 820 kilometers from Israel is short of Baghdad, and far short of the 1,500 kilometers need to reach Tehran and other potential targets within Iran.

    A F-16I has an unrefueled combat strike radius of 1,640 kilometers without refueling. Israel has only two refueling tankers, far short of what is needed to refuel a fleet of Jets.

    Without US assistance of say perhaps refueling over Iraq airspace or actually landing in Iraq they cannot pull off any kind of Strike on multiple targets deep witin Iran.

    The real question to ponder is George Bush crazier than Richard Nixon?

  75. PGC says:

    78 in mod.

    On a side note, any predictions on when the fed will pull the trigger and start the rate hikes to stop inflation. I need to start planning my exit strategy from my bond fund bunker.

  76. kettle1 says:

    hobo,

    and that is one of the core issue in the moscow/BP fight. moscow is trying to squeeze BP out of a signed contract.

    That $75 will also put upward pressure on world oil prices.

    For more fun watch europe this winter and natural gas. Moscow has decided to use it natural gas supply as an active political tool ( such as last winter when russia threatened to shut off narural gas supply to some of the former republics)

    europe gets a significant portion of its natural gas from russia and has very little (on the order of days) natural gas in storage. Russia has europe by the short and curlies on that front.

  77. NJLifer says:

    #50 Rich –

    Their property taxes had gone up $3,500 in three years. For someone that is up to their teeth in debt, $300 more a month in taxes is a killer. Add fuel prices and other inflation, these folks don’t stand a chance to keep their homes.

  78. Mike NJ says:

    Kettle,

    I agree that the current state of chaos certainly factors in a solid does of Iran. The issue is whether Bush will act in conjunction with Israel. I have no doubt that Israel will and should act before the tipping point if it wants to protect itself. The current state of US economic and military affairs is such that it would be moronic for Bush to act on this at this time. If Israel feels that they need to act then let them do it. Helping them in any way other then allowing clear skies across Iraq makes no sense. Just my 2 cents but I see no other viable option.

  79. make money says:

    Clot,

    Are you having fun shorting the Financials yet? How’s your SKF doing? Did a guy named Margin call you yet?

    Bi,

    Congrats on your first winning trade.

    MM

  80. BklynHawk says:

    Ok, maybe just in NJ would someone talk about a $4,300,000 home like this:

    ‘This baby will go fast so call today to make an appointment to see the place….’

    Are they aiming for the pinky ring multi-millionaires.

    http://newjersey.craigslist.org/rfs/723709841.html

    And, from these pictures, I’m just not getting the $4.3 million value of this house?

  81. thatBIGwindow says:

    looks like it has been vacant for 20 years.

  82. make money says:

    2.4 acres!

  83. jam says:

    [64] I think that is the prestigious Hartung area in Wyckoff.

  84. HEHEHE says:

    Good explanation of recent market action”

    Dissecting The Short Squeeze

    http://www.minyanville.com/articles/AXP-bac-fre-fnm-crisis-SEC/index/a/18164

  85. lostinny says:

    They could have taken the time to take some real pictures given the asking price.

  86. All Hype says:

    Fannie Mae up 20% today. Nothing like a little communism to up your stock price!

    Gubbmint intervention, ain’t it grand!

  87. kettle1 says:

    mike 84

    it would be moronic for Bush to act on this at this time

    so are you saying that bush WILL do it then?

    on a more serious note, things will get very ugly for Israel if they start a fight with Iran and dont have the US on their side. I am not saying that Israel is helpless or incompetent. they are neither. But the ME is a tinder box waiting for a spark and an Israeli strike on Iran would be a spark.

    Even thought Iran and friends (shia) and Saudi and friends(Sunni) do not care for each other, each party may decide it is in their best interest to both attack is Israel once the fire is lit. I think things would be very different from the six day war of 67

  88. Fiddy Cents on the Dollar says:

    Re: $4.3Megabucks

    Isn’t National Property Solutions (the lister) also a Property Preservation outfit?

    This one could be the Mother of all Distress Sales!

  89. still_looking says:

    All Hype, 92

    don’t you mean GRUBBERmint?

    sl

  90. jamil says:

    84 mike: I agree with your analysis (unfortunately, as I think US – as the dominant force in the world – should fight evil and stop Iran getting nukes).

    Israel has massive challenges: It may not know about every nuke site (and some may be hidden in civilian locations), distance to Iran is huge, sites are protected with enforced cement and steel, Russians are upgrading their radar systems, and Hezbollah and Hamas are ready to launch massive missile strikes against Israel.

    In anycase, this is a life or death case for Israel so they must try to act within the next year or so. They have prepared and planned for this event for years (or decades) so they have plenty of choices. They even have submarines (though probably not practical in the Persian Gulf). Air strike is still the most likely scenario.

    The probability of a major military conflict in the ME within the next year or two is about 100% so take that into account in your oil price analysis. I just hope the good guys win it.

  91. Fiddy Cents on the Dollar says:

    Now THIS is an eye-opening web-site….

    http://nationalpropertysolutions.com/

    They are busy on Craigslist.

  92. Mike NJ says:

    Kettle,

    You are spot on, since no one has any faith in Bush it is tough to tell what he will really do. We will have to just wait and see. I can only say what I think he should do. We all know that logic sometimes does not come into play in Washington these days.

    I agree that it will be a tough affair for Israel without our help but Israel has painted itself into a corner for decades. You reap what you sow. Look at the sh*t show that occurred in 2006 between Israel and Hezbollah. This war will be very different. That is why I think whatever it takes Bush and Co. should offer Iran the silver platter to give the stuff up. I think they are leaning towards that right now actually. It is the only logical conclusion to make given the set of circumstances we are all in. Pure game theory.

  93. jamil says:

    93: Saudis and Egypt would love to shut down Iranian nuke program and they sure are not going to attack Israel.

    In general, sunnis hate shias more than jews. Remember the Saudi (and the Arab street reaction) during the Hezbollah-Israel conflict. They were practically on Isreael’s side. Nuclear-armed Iran is the last thing on earth sunnis want to see. It is actually far more likely that they give covert support for Israel for taking care of Iran’s nuke program.

  94. make money says:

    hehe 90

    good stuff. I’s setting us up for a massive one day crash. That’s all.

    When will that happen is 69 thousnd dollar question.

  95. kettle1 says:

    Jamil,

    good and evil is all relative. There are very good arguments for the current administration being fairly “evil”. that doesnt mean that the american people are any better or any worse then the iranian people.
    Why didnt we invade pakistan or North Korea for their nuke programs???

    Iran is no more evil then many other current regimes around the world and perhaps less so.

    There is an argument that one reason the US is so upset about Iran is that we want the US and our european friends to control the nuke market. This is because as oil drops off Nukes are going to be huge business and right now the nuke industry is cornered by the US and a few friendly nations. If Iran and friends develop their nuclear power (weapons usually follow nuke power)industry, they can threaten our monopoly on the market and we dont like that.

    Unfortunately the geopolitical issues are far murkier then good vs evil

  96. kettle1 says:

    mike

    Pure game theory.

    we are screwed then, the results of game theory (specifically prisoners dilemma) show that people usually act somewhat selfishly/irrationally on a semi-regular basis. people often fail to look past their own immediate interest and see the big picture

  97. John says:

    I pumped up McCain is picking a 37 year old indian who is a former hindu who is not catholic for VP – The heck with Obama!!

  98. jamil says:

    98 mike:
    “That is why I think whatever it takes Bush and Co. should offer Iran the silver platter to give the stuff up. ”

    Meanwhile, BBC reports today “Iran vows no nuclear concessions”. Does anybody seriously believe that they would end their nuke program? Of course not. They are never going to do that, no matter what is the offered. This is just like the negotiations in Munich in 1930’s (or later with Kim Il-Sun, Milosevic or Saddam).

    In theory, they may say something in order to delay the military action (and resume when the pressure goes away) but the problem remains.

    Stronger diplomatic pressure in the 1990s might have helped but anyway, too late now. War it is.

  99. Cindy says:

    Can someone – if so inclined – post
    Reuters 7/23 James Saft
    “It won’t be over till housing hits bottom.”

    Thanks

    “The financial crisis won’t be over intil US house prices stop falling, which in short means it won’t be over any time soon.”

  100. kettle1 says:

    Jamil,

    i agree that there is a very high probability of war. but you cannot really lump Kim Il-Sun (or hi son “little Kim?”), Milosevic or Saddam together in that manner. There were subtle and not so subtle differences behind each man.

    I also agree that nuke power is actually in iran’s best interest for a number of reasons. It would be in the disinterest to give it. The depressingly funny thing is that if Iran had gotten nukes this would not even be on the table. the US does not threaten nuclear states, only non-nuclear.

  101. Nom Deplume says:

    [27] Sean

    Put down our guns??? sounds like a reason to pick them up.

    A GTG at the range. Sounds like a plan but I don’t know where there is rangespace in NJ. I will ask my sporting buds but I am pretty sure they won’t know.

  102. BC Bob says:

    Can we nuke the nuke debate?

  103. Aaron says:

    Great video on the Bailout up at denninger.net

    http://market-ticker.denninger.net/

  104. still_looking says:

    106 Nom,

    Ray’s on Rte 22 west in North Plainfield (if it’s still open.)

    sl

  105. jamil says:

    101 kettle: “Why didnt we invade pakistan or North Korea for their nuke programs???”

    We didn’t know about those until it was too late. The whole idea is to act before evil regimes get nukes.

    “Iran is no more evil then many other current regimes around the world and perhaps less so.”

    Uhh. I don’t care too much if they keep hanging or stoning every homosexual or adulterer Iranian in Iran (many countries do that), but they are openly sponsoring and acting in terror around the globe. For the anti-semites in the world, Iran getting nukes is probably a great idea, but for any normal human being it is just awful.

    As for using nuclear power for peaceful purposes: The best reactor types for energy production cannot be used for bombs. I wonder why Iran insisted on using the bomb-capable reactor and process. Besides, various high-level Iranian officials (including current and former presidents) have openly stated that 1) Israel must be nuked, 2) Israel will be destroyed soon

    If Iran would be interested only in peaceful nuclear energy, that would be simple to do with other reactor types. That kills the BS argument “they are only interested in peaceful energy”.

  106. kettle1 says:

    BC,

    no more nukes for me! kettle 1 is NUKE free!

  107. Mike NJ says:

    BC Bob,

    I am a hawk of the highest order but I can’t see anything other than diplomacy working at the last hour after Iran gets all concessions it can out of us.

    No more Nuke talks, I promise.

    Anyone fill out their RE tax relief mailing that came a few weeks ago? What a joke.

    Didn’t we kill this in a vote last year?

  108. chicagofinance says:

    grim Says:
    July 23rd, 2008 at 8:31 am
    From Yahoo Finance:
    Roubini: More Than $1 Trillion Needed to Solve Housing Crisis

    grim: The f—ing Roubinator in prime form….hellaciously awesome. Did you see Blodgett evacuating his bladder and rectum simultaneously? He is so lucky that he is wearing a dark suit. The other guy has a dumb smirk on his face and is saying “holy f—” under his breath……OUT OF THE BOX CLASSIC!

  109. SS says:

    Given all this political, environmental & economic mess going on around the world – where do you think we’ll (the US) be in 10 years?

    Rapid emigration from the US – people going back to their “home land”? I’m talking Irish, German, Asian, South American, etc.

    WW 3?

    Rising ocean levels due to global warming resulting in land disputes.

    Will we see chaos or calming over the next 10 years? Just curious as to the overall sentiment on the board. I think we’re in uncharted waters right now – nothing in years past to compare to current events.

  110. kettle1 says:

    jamil 110

    an interesting discussion, perhaps we can continue it at a GTG some time

  111. Cindy says:

    Chicago – Could you do me a favor?

    Re #104 – Could you post the Reuter’s article dtd. 7/23 by James Saft….
    “It won’t be over till housing hits bottom?”

    Thanks in advance
    Cindy

  112. Nom Deplume says:

    [109]

    My friend in Watchung told me yesterday that he thought it had closed. But he did not know, and I haven’t been over there.

  113. Nom Deplume says:

    The NJ Real Estate, REX 84, Firearms, and Nuclear Weapons Report?

    I think we gotta get back to basics here.

  114. bairen says:

    Why isn’t Blogett banned from the industry, even for being a talking head? How can anyone believe a word out of his mouth?

  115. still_looking says:

    Nom,

    That’s what I had heard, too..but it seems like there are always cars there and it appears open.

    sl

  116. thatBIGwindow says:

    #114: google “2012”

  117. chicagofinance says:

    It won’t be over till housing hits bottom: James Saft

    http://www.reuters.com/article/reutersComService4/idUSL2180681120080723

  118. chicagofinance says:

    bairen Says:
    July 23rd, 2008 at 11:48 am
    Why isn’t Blogett banned from the industry, even for being a talking head? How can anyone believe a word out of his mouth?

    he is…that’s why he has to do these journalistic gigs…..

  119. Sean says:

    ok, no more nuke talk other than tommorow marks the 25th anniversary of the movie “WarGames.”

    I’m hungy perhaps I will have WHOPR.

  120. bairen says:

    #123 chifi,

    Bizarre any large media would higher him as an expert.

  121. Cindy says:

    (122) Thank you Chicago, You are a gentleman and a scholar.

  122. kettle1 says:

    Sean,

    Perhaps a nice game of chess?

    SS,

    i vote for the 2nd law of thermodynamics

  123. jamil says:

    ss:
    “Rapid emigration from the US – people going back to their “home land”? I’m talking Irish, German, Asian, South American, etc.”

    Interesting point. Still, politicians and economic challenges are pretty similar everywhere. Corruption, budget deficits, unsustainable entitlement programs and/or fabricated government stats in most countries are even worse than in the US.

    I suspect US gets more and more poorly educated illegals (and because of chain immigration, their relatives) who are unwilling to assimilate, and some amount of well-educated professionals, but increasingly, middle-class people are leaving the US.

    I moved to the US assuming I would retire here. Now, I’m not so sure anymore. I have about 50% chance of moving either to the UK or somewhere in Asia.

  124. Orion says:

    (7) Can anyone forward this video to Congress/Senate?
    Priceless. The man tells it like it is, no bs.

  125. tom says:

    Kettle,

    Interesting story from the ground. I still do not expect Bush to strike with Israel. It just does not make any sense with the current positives (Syria, progress in Iraq, etc) in the gulf region. So what if Iran gets the nukes in 2-5 years. What is the worst they can do, nuke Israel? I don’t think they have the stones. That would mean instant suicide. Even if they do the region has been nothing but trouble for the past 60 years. Maybe a little radioactivity for the next million years might serve to cool everyone off.

    ——————————————–
    You obviously dont know the minds of Extreme Muslims, they either want the world to become Islam or they will find away to destroy it. They dont care either way because of the virgins they get when they die.

    Perhaps that Nucluer Weapon that Iran has will end up in Isreal.

    Or Perhaps Iran could forget to set its nucleur security one day and let the terrorist take a Nuke.

    Then perhaps you might fing that nuke on a cargo ship sailing into Manhatten or Newark.

    So I think its logical to give pause to what your saying.

  126. lostinny says:

    The range on 22 is still open. DH’s coworker goes there.

  127. kettle1 says:

    Tom,

    interesting chat for another day perhaps….

    Jamil,

    UK may not be the best plan. the natural resources available compared to population density paints and ugly picture if the SHTF for real.

    a low # of people per acre of arable land would be one good metric to consider.

  128. jamil says:

    btw, if you think about getting into law school today:

    http://lawandmore.typepad.com/law_and_more/2008/07/white-men-not-so-welcome-in-law—microsoft-joins-wal-mart-in-diversity-push.html

    “Microsoft’s [sic] has informed its 17 ‘Premium Preferred Provider law firms’ which collectively receive about $150 million in fees each year, that they will receive financial bonuses based on ‘improvements’ they made in their diversity numbers.
    This follows the recent announcement that this fall Wal-Mart is installing software which monitors diversity in all law firms it uses, regularly and just-in-time. Those firms falling short of Wal-Mart’s diversity target numbers will be terminated. ”

    I wonder how they define white. One drop of white blood and you are out? Can 1/8 white person still work there? How about transsexuals?
    Too bad US doesn’t have a constitutional protection of equal treatment or something like it.

    Seriously, this kind of crap is a good reason to get out of the US. Bad laywers and bad policy (this policy is of course not just limited to law).

  129. kettle1 says:

    Jamil,

    you are also likely to see serious civil unrest due to the recent large number of foriegn immigrants arriving in the country.

  130. SS says:

    #121

    That’s a little more extreme than I was thinking. Guess we don’t have to worry about anything then!

  131. ed anger says:

    Hey Jamil, saves us the suspense and just move out already.

    Nothing worse than an immigrant telling an American what his business is.

    Love it or leave it Jamil.

    “I moved to the US assuming I would retire here. Now, I’m not so sure anymore. I have about 50% chance of moving either to the UK or somewhere in Asia.”

    Take your complaints elsewhere.

  132. WaitingInRent says:

    I believe somebody asked for the link to the REO’s. This is the one I have:

    http://homeinbabylon.com/reo-directory/

  133. Clotpoll says:

    pain (74)-

    Look how much Fannie/Freddie debt is held by Russia.

  134. kettle1 says:

    easy Ed,

    i understand your point, but i dont think jamil was bashing the US. many people are currently worried about where the US is going and wondering where their fortunes may lead them.

  135. Clotpoll says:

    randy (76)-

    Wait til August comes, and trading volume drops even lower. The amount of manipulation then will be insane.

    Still long gold, short financials.

    All disclaimers. As is the above statement is not disclaimer enough.

  136. kettle1 says:

    from Automatic Earth:
    http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/

    Ilargi: I’ll address one more time why that $25 billion cost estimate for the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac bail-out is such a bogus number, and why it’s so insane that it will be used in Washington.

    After all, there will be a vote today on the housing rescue bill that the bail-out was made an ill-fitting part of, and the Congressional Budget Office’s $25 billion number will be the official estimate used in presenting the bill. Which in turn means far-reaching policy and budget decisions will be based on it. Hard to believe, but that’s US politics these days.

    The New York Times today basically repeats what I have said earlier about the estimate, but lacks the gutzpah to draw conclusions. The CBO claims there is a higher than 50% chance that Fannie & Freddie won’t use the rescue package at all, an assertion ostensibly based on the idea that they are “fundamentally sound”.

    Now, we’ve all seen some of the creative accounting used for the two, like the below-low capital requirements for them, but I still find it so unbelievable that Congress takes that for granted, that it makes me suspicious. How is that in the best interest of the people they have been elected to represent?

    No company, not a single one, that is leveraged over 60 times, is fundamentally sound. It may seem that way for a short time as prices and markets soar, but even then it’s all just nothing but sleight of hand. As soar turns to sour, a loss of a mere few percent can wipe out all reserves.

  137. HEHEHE says:

    I saw that Roubini interview last night. The reactions of the hosts were eerily similar to the reactions of the Fast Money crew when Matt Simmons was on there talking Peak Oil. Bulls get all deer in the headlights when they hear the truth they don’t want to hear.

  138. Clotpoll says:

    Sean (80)-

    “The real question to ponder is George Bush crazier than Richard Nixon?”

    Part of the answer to that question is that there’s no doubt George Bush is way dumber than Richard Nixon.

  139. #135 – ed anger… Am I the only one that gets this reference?

  140. kettle1 says:

    from bloomberg

    Stocks worldwide have tumbled this year, erasing about $11 trillion in value, as $467 billion in credit-related losses and accelerating inflation weigh on the outlook for economic and profit growth.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=afW0hUrRUP54&refer=home

    11 trillion in global wealth has been destroyed. has the equivalent amount of inflation occurred? I dont have numbers, but i do not think so. This is stealth deflation we are seeing.

  141. Clotpoll says:

    make (85)-

    I’m not double-short in an ETF on margin. Thanks for your concern. Let’s revisit this around Sept. 1.

    BTW, I continue to average down.

  142. Hobokenite says:

    kettle,

    “That $75 will also put upward pressure on world oil prices.”

    Only based upon a reduction in Russian exports limiting world supply.

    I do agree about europe being screwed though.

  143. Clotpoll says:

    Make (85)-

    Here’s a little preview of what might happen sometime within the next few weeks…courtesy of our gubmint’s stock manipulation. From that Minyanville article referenced earlier:

    “When buying these stocks, remember that a vacuum has been created on the downside. Short sellers produce demand for stocks as they go down. If there’s no short interest (and something bad happens), this source of buying is gone.”

    Talk about unintended consequences!

  144. BklynHawk says:

    Rich in NNJ #50-
    Wow, what is wrong with that place? That’s crazy. Is that on NJ or GS MLS? I’d like to see it.

  145. BC Bob says:

    “July 23 (Bloomberg) — Citigroup Inc. Chief Financial Officer Gary Crittenden said earnings will probably be strong enough to absorb any losses created when new accounting rules force it to move off-balance-sheet securities onto its books.”

    “There’s likely to be a fair amount of time between now and when that event actually takes place, and that’s a time period in which we intend to generate a very significant amount of capital,” Crittenden said today on a conference call with investors. “We think we have it well in hand.”

    “Citigroup has the most off-balance-sheet assets among U.S. banks, totaling about $1.1 trillion at the end of March, based on first-quarter regulatory filings. Since last September, at least $100 billion of assets have flooded back onto Citigroup’s balance sheet, accompanied by more than $7 billion of losses, making investors wary of unknown obligations.”

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aK4NC14cMcuM&refer=home

  146. BC Bob says:

    Clot [147],

    Sounds like an old fashioned bull trap to me.

  147. Rich In NNJ says:

    BklynHawk,

    NJMLS

    Sorry I haven’t responded yet. Haven’t had the time to compare towns.

  148. HEHEHE says:

    Count on Mish to sum it all up:

    You Know The Banking System’s Unsound When…

    http://www.minyanville.com/articles/MER-GS-C-jpm-LEH-fre/index/a/18162

  149. kettle1 says:

    hey clot,

    Apollo 14 astronaut Dr Edgar Mitchell, said he was aware of many UFO visits to Earth during his career with NASA but each one was covered up.

    Dr Mitchell, 77, said during a radio interview that sources at the space agency who had had contact with aliens described the beings as ‘little people who look strange to us.’

    In a statement, a spokesman said: “NASA does not track UFOs. NASA is not involved in any sort of cover up about alien life on this planet or anywhere in the universe.

    ‘Dr Mitchell is a great American, but we do not share his opinions on this issue.’

    from the Mail (UK)

  150. schabadoo says:

    i understand your point, but i dont think jamil was bashing the US. many people are currently worried about where the US is going and wondering where their fortunes may lead them.

    But, as jamil is someone who blindly repeats the the wackiest internet conspiracy theories as fact, it can be hard to take.

    Single posts that can compare talking to Iran as Chamberlain redux, sneak in a chance to blame Clinton and guarantee WWIII seem a bit much, no?

  151. grim says:

    Discussions related to either Aliens and Guns are banned for the rest of the day.

    -The Management

  152. BC Bob says:

    he[152],

    From your post. Classic.

    “Paulson says Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are “essential” because they represent the only “functioning” part of the home loan market. The firms own or guarantee about half of the $12 trillion in U.S. mortgages. Is it possible to have a sound banking system when the only “functioning” part of the mortgage market is insolvent?”

  153. kettle1 says:

    ;)

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  155. John says:

    I thought this was America, what is with all the global discussions?

  156. NJLifer says:

    152 – BklynHawk

    Like I posted before – the taxes are $14,800. That’s what’s wrong with that place.

  157. jam says:

    Anyone have any comp killers/recent lowball sales for northern bergen county?

  158. jam says:

    [165] What’s wrong with it!? Look at it! it looks like an alien took out its ray gun and demolished it.

  159. ted says:

    What about the up to $7500 tax break for first time homebuyers as part of this bill? Sounds really good. Does anyone know the qualification details, income limits, house price to get the credit? Thanks in advance

  160. jam says:

    sorry Grim, I couldn’t resist.

  161. HEHEHE says:

    BC these are scary times.

  162. John says:

    The typical price Fannie Mae received for foreclosed homes sold in the first quarter 2008 fell to 74 percent of the unpaid mortgage principal from 93 percent in 2005,

  163. HEHEHE says:

    BC this one is my favorite:

    Washington Mutual (WM), another troubled bank, refused to honor Indymac cashier’s checks. It’s ironic that customers pulled insured deposits out of Indymac after it went into receivership. It’s also ironic that they would then want to deposit those funds in Washington Mutual – the last place one would want to put them.

    WaMu eventually decided it would take those checks, but with an 8-week hold. Will Washington Mutual even be around 8 weeks from now?

  164. BC Bob says:

    he [170],

    Especially when the architect’s of the mayhem are now assuring us that the ship is headed in the right direction. Unfortunately, the ship is loaded only with band aids, gauze pads and rubber bands.

    http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/seymour062001.html

  165. HEHEHE says:

    Beige Book NYC Real Estate:

    Construction and Real Estate
    Housing markets in the District showed further signs of softening in the second quarter. Manhattan’s rental market showed signs of slackening: a major rental brokerage reports that rents at mid-year were flat to down slightly from a year ago, while the vacancy rate reportedly climbed from 0.8 percent at mid-2007 to 1.2 percent. Separately, a leading appraisal firm reports that selling prices of Manhattan co-ops and condos declined moderately on a quarterly basis but were still up about 11 percent from a year earlier (on a per square foot basis), reflecting a shift toward more sales of luxury apartments. At the same time, the number of transactions tumbled more than 20 percent, and the listing inventory was up more than 30 percent. Brooklyn’s market showed even more weakness, with prices little changed from a year ago and the number of sales down more than 40 percent; most of the weakening was in the market for 1-3 family homes, with the condo and co-op market showing some resilience.

    A contact in New Jersey’s housing industry indicates that the market continued to deteriorate in recent months but not dramatically. Prices have declined by an estimated 15 percent from peak levels in 2005-06, with most of the decline coming in the past year. Sales activity is still described as weak; while buyer traffic is said to be holding up at the lower end of the market (under $300K), it is described as very weak at high end. Builders note that it has grown increasingly hard for prospective homebuyers to qualify for a mortgage. Single-family construction has reportedly dropped off sharply over the past year, but multi-family re-development in urban areas has remained fairly stable.

    Office markets in the region showed further signs of slackening in the second quarter. Vacancy rates rose noticeably in both Midtown and Downtown Manhattan–particularly for sub-lease space; moreover, one industry contact notes an increase in “shadow space” (space that is unused but not officially available), which suggests further slack in the market. Vacancy rates were little changed at high levels in northern and central New Jersey, edged up in Fairfield County, but edged down in Westchester. Asking rents fell in northern and central New Jersey but continued to rise across most of the metro area. However, asking rents are conjectured to be overstating the underlying strength of the market somewhat, due to increased concessions. In contrast with the general weakening in the office market, New York City’s retail rental market is still characterized as fairly resilient. Finally, an industry contact notes that new hotel development has virtually ground to a halt but that the pipeline of existing development is larger than ever (close to 15,000 rooms), though a number of these projects are having trouble getting adequate financing.

    http://www.federalreserve.gov/FOMC/BeigeBook/2008/20080723/2.htm

  166. Hard Place says:

    John (171) – Fannie Mae foreclosure stat.

    That’s an interesting stat. Where did you get it from?

  167. BC Bob says:

    “NEW YORK – Costco Wholesale Corp., which had been one of the few bright spots in retailing, said Wednesday that its earnings will miss Wall Street expectations, as it struggles with higher energy costs that are crimping its bottom line.”

    http://www.presstelegram.com/business/ci_9969829

  168. Pat says:

    Hard Place, you know JJ doesn’t reveal his sources. Bahahhahah.

    John, are you also cut/pasting into a certain futures board?

  169. BC Bob says:

    HP [175],

    I posted in the previous thread.

    “The typical price Fannie Mae received for foreclosed homes sold in the first quarter fell to 74 percent of the unpaid mortgage principal from 93 percent in 2005, according to Harrison.”

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aMz0dl3IdwjU&refer=home

  170. RentinginNJ says:

    Create home buyer credit. The bill includes a tax refund for first-time home buyers worth up to 10% of a home’s purchase price but no more than $7,500.

    Ted,

    From CNN:
    The refund, however, serves more as an interest-free loan, since it would have to be paid back over 15 years in equal installments by the buyer.

    The refund would be reduced gradually for single filers with adjusted gross incomes above $75,000; and for joint filers with AGIs over $150,000.

  171. Clotpoll says:

    BC (178)-

    Talk about mark-to-market.

    And, of course, the pace of Fannie Mae foreclosures is accelerating.

    Move on; nothing to see here.

  172. BklynHawk says:

    NJLifer #165- After looking at the listing, I would say there might be a caveat where you have to take the old lady pictured in the living as part of the deal. That could be the major factor on the price reduction.

    Something like:

    “Buyer assumes all upkeep and maintenance of said old lady as part of purchase agreement. Furthermore, buyer will let her have minimum of two (2) with a maximum of six (6) cats and full access to Cliffside Park senior citizen center for bingo night at least one night per month.”

    But, you’re probably right $15k in taxes hurts too.

  173. BklynHawk says:

    Grim, 181 in moderation.

  174. chicagofinance says:

    toshiro_mifune Says:
    July 23rd, 2008 at 12:49 pm
    #135 – ed anger… Am I the only one that gets this reference?

    No way…the man….
    http://www.weeklyworldnews.com/column/my_america/24

  175. John says:

    Actually I am also posting on this site in the future via my time machine. BTW the housing market bottoms Feb, 12 2010 and stays flat until April 9, 2017 when it becames a long and slow recovery.

    Pat Says:
    July 23rd, 2008 at 2:19 pm
    Hard Place, you know JJ doesn’t reveal his sources. Bahahhahah.

    John, are you also cut/pasting into a certain futures board?

  176. Victorian says:

    “Paulson & Co. Plans Fund to Provide Capital to Banks”

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aANbt26C4Kuk&refer=home

    “Paulson plans to open a hedge fund by December that will invest as the world’s biggest banks and brokers add to the $345 billion they’ve raised in the past year, according to two people with knowledge of the matter. His Paulson & Co., which oversees $33 billion, hasn’t set a size target for the fund, said the people, who declined to be identified because the plans aren’t final.”

    This is the guy who made money by shorting the MBS market. Does this mean that the FED/Paulson have decided that Financials are not going to go down no matter what?

    Is there even a way that they can control this?

  177. #185 – Rock! I thought WWN had gone bust. I had no idea I could still keep tabs on BatBoy online!

  178. kettle1 says:

    CTFC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) have released their report suggesting that oil prices WERE NOT driven up by speculation.

    (PDF)
    http://www.cftc.gov/stellent/groups/public/@newsroom/documents/file/itfinterimreportoncrudeoil0708.pdf

  179. Sean says:

    re: #188 Kettle1

    Read the fine print “Matters of illegal manipulation of commodity prices are outside the scope of this Interim Report.”

  180. Rich In NNJ says:

    Closter FUTURE Comp Killer!

    SOLD: 108 CEDAR LN $865,000 6/23/2005

    MLS# 2831336
    List: $799,000 7/23/2008

  181. Sean says:

    Kettle1 – Congress Pursues $80 Oil With Trading Limits, Disclosure Rules

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601070&sid=aI3KfJ0v2akE&refer=politics

  182. kettle1 says:

    from the executive summary

    The Task Force’s preliminary assessment is that current oil prices and the increase in oil prices between January 2003 and June 2008 are largely due to fundamental supply and demand factors. During this same period, activity on the crude oil futures market – as measured by the number of contracts outstanding, trading activity, and the number of traders – has increased significantly. While these increases broadly coincided with the run-up in crude oil prices, the Task Force’s preliminary analysis to date does not support the proposition that speculative activity has systematically driven changes in oil prices.

  183. All Hype says:

    WaMu down 17%. No bailout for you. They are heading for the great bank in the sky! Next time, lobby more in congress to get on the congressional bailout Christmas list.

    Up next, my bank, Wachovia!

  184. BC Bob says:

    kettle,

    Didn’t read the report, CFTC, but basically know what they are touting. Let’s be fair, what would you expect them to say? Any agenda?

  185. San Diego city attorney plans to sure WFC, WM and WB to stop foreclosures. Wants city to be a foreclosure sanctuary.
    No link yet.
    This idea worked out so well in the 30’s too.

  186. kettle1 says:

    hype,

    apparently little mckenzie didnt receive the 100% wamu congressional scholarship that daddy was expecting this year

    Sean,

    CTFC does have a horse in this race, but does that invalidate the principle idea?

  187. Sean says:

    Kettle1 – does this report mention the ICE Futures or the Dubai Futures?

    Back on June 20th the The Commodity Futures Trading Commission amended an agreement that would require IntercontinentalExchange’s ICE Futures Europe unit to adopt position limits for its West Texas Intermediary (WTI) crude oil contract that are equivalent to U.S. position limits. The WTI contract is linked to the New York Mercantile Exchange’s crude oil contract. Some policymakers have argued that different regulations governing WTI trades on ICE Futures Europe have allowed speculators to take advantage of a “London loophole” to maneuver around U.S. speculative-position limits. ICE said it plans to comply with the amended no-action letter within 120 days, subject to acceptance by the U.K. Financial Services Authority, the regulator of ICE Futures Europe.

    We are both right to a degree there is a shortage of supply in drilling and refining and there is some “froth” which will now evaporate… End of Story

  188. kettle1 says:

    sean

    We are both right to a degree there is a shortage of supply in drilling and refining and there is some “froth” which will now evaporate… End of Story

    i concur

  189. bi says:

    i feel the current market is making people on this board nervous and hate paulson more than ever: oil and gold down another 3%; SKF up 6%; SRS down 8%.

  190. kettle1 says:

    BC 194

    i agree with you and sean, there are fundamental supply demand issues, but there is also some “froth” involved. I just get annoyed when all you hear is how the evil speculators caused this otherwise oil would be at 80

  191. bi says:

    SKF is particularly sick. it went down 100 pts (95%) from the high of $212 just 5 trading days ago.

  192. bi says:

    sorry 45% not 95%

  193. make money says:

    Bi,

    Are you buying the dip.

  194. kettle1 says:

    BC

    4 Commodities Ready To Shock Investors – #3: A War In Africa May Cause Phosphate Price Shock

    http://energytechstocks.com.previewmysite.com/wp/?p=1488

  195. spam spam bacon spam says:

    well, silly old me not talking guns or the jews or oil or the russians or the bailout or, or, or….

    can someone remind who was it that was successful in getting RE assessed taxes reduced?

    I want to know the general process in doing it, what makes it more likely versus when you don’t have a chance, etc.

  196. bi says:

    203#, i would get a few shares SKF to hedge. for long term, i would think PPH, PBJ and XLU are attractive now

  197. BC Bob says:

    “evil speculators”

    kettle [200],

    It’s misguided rhetoric coming from feebleminded policy makers. Speculators don’t have the capacity to determine and keep intact 5 year trends. More like a blast of wind in the middle of a hurricane. That said, speculators do have the capacity to exaggerate the move. The market will adjust and balance.

  198. BC Bob says:

    “sorry 45% not 95%”

    Similar to $40 and $140?

  199. John says:

    Good times in Brooklyn this weekend, with oil and gold both down in price the guinna T crowd has lottsa extra spending cash.

  200. Stu says:

    bi:

    Patience.

    Financial markets are sicker than ever and there is no impetus to turn this ship around.

    In May, the DJI was >13,000. Today it is 11% lower. I wouldn’t exactly break out the bubbly just yet my friend. Now if oil gets down to $40, then it would be cause for some celebration. The last few days have most likely been nothing more than a minor bear market short covering rally most likely driven by 20%.

    I’m still on the plus side and like Clotpoll, I am averaging down using my gains. Will take long term gains on SRS in the next 20 days hopefully.

    Am I nervous? No, I’m content. It is the average apathetic investor who should be nervous having lost 1/5th of their wealth in about 8 month’s time.

    Enjoy your bubbly.

  201. BC Bob says:

    John [209],

    Are they short gold?

  202. Stash says:

    Has anyone noticed the CD rates have jumped today.
    Wachovia – 4.25% on 12 mo.
    B of A – 4.11% on 7 mo.
    WAMU – 4.25% on 8mo.

    Looks like they are trying to raise some cash quick. I saw today that B of A is planning a stock repurchase of 3.75B.

  203. make money says:

    NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — The area north of the Arctic Circle has an estimated 90 billion barrels of undiscovered, technically recoverable oil, according to a report released Wednesday by the U.S. Geological Survey, a branch of the Department of Interior. The report said the Arctic also holds 1,670 trillion cubic feet of technically recoverable natural gas, and 44 million barrels of technically recoverable natural gas liquids in 25 geologically defined areas thought to have potential for petroleum. The report comes out at a time when talk about boosting oil production has heated up. Last week, President Bush lifted an executive ban on offshore drilling but the move was seen as symbolic as Congress would need to turn it into legislation, which is seen as unlikely.

  204. Stu says:

    20% = <$150 oil. Sorry.

    Bacon and Spam (205): NJGator and I successfully appealed sans lawyer. She did all the work though. I mostly just argued with the town lawyer.

    “You think my house is worth $649K. I’ll give it to you spot on, right now, for $579K!, if you believe in your numbers, you can make 70K without lifting a finger!!!”

  205. BC Bob says:

    Stash [212],

    They are desperate for cash, as was Indymac, just 2 weeks ago;

    “Struggling to hold on to depositors, IndyMac Bancorp now is offering the highest yields in the nation on six-month and one-year savings certificates.”

    “And the troubled Pasadena-based thrift isn’t just edging competitors on yield — it’s trouncing them.”

    http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/money_co/2008/07/struggling-to-h.html

  206. Stu says:

    BC Bob (211):

    The Guinea-T crowd is never short gold. Half of their net worth is sitting around their neck!

    http://www.funnyordie.com/videos/20e717a8d4

  207. BC Bob says:

    Stu [216],

    Funny, that’s what I thought. I was just trying to interpret John’s post; how they have extra cash since Gold has been down the past few days. Maybe John meant to say that they kicked out their gold chains when gold was 1000+?

    John,

    Help me out. Have they?

    A)sold?
    B)hedged their physical in Dec futures?
    C)Neither, you just stepped back again, into another pile?

  208. Nom Deplume says:

    [215] BC

    interesting use of word “troubled.” It has a specific meaning to regulators, and if the banks were truly troubled such that their capital was below regulatory thresholds, they would be barred from doing high yield CDs. Thus, I don’t view it as imminent doom if a bank offers high yield CDs;

    I only view it as imminent doom if the bank offers those CD rates AND the bank’s name gets on Chuck Schumer’s teleprompter.

  209. Hobokenite says:

    “Help me out. Have they?

    A)sold?
    B)hedged their physical in Dec futures?
    C)Neither, you just stepped back again, into another pile?”

    I think he means they have cash left over after any recent purchases, now that prices are down.

  210. John says:

    A good Guinna T never sells his gold or cuts back on hair grease, he is always a buyer.

    BTW years ago did the whole 86th st under the El in brooklyn with buddies Marco and Pascual’s in a Black Montee SS and hit Pastels and Turquise on the same night. Liked it so much stayed out to closing and got some gravy fries at the Victory Dinner with our Monte SS up on the sidewalk to impress the ladies. It is a whole nother culture like being in a national geographic film.

  211. NJGator says:

    205 Spam/Bacon – Get my email from JB. I’ll let you know what we did.

  212. kettle1 says:

    anecdote for the day:

    Talking to people at work lately, the general consensus seems to be that the talking heads and government guru’s are currently in CYA mode. The poblem being that now there is general confusion as to what to do with your money, because people are realizing that something is very wrong but dont know what exactly or how to respond.

    It seems like the heard is starting to get nervous but cannot identify the source of danger or where to find safety.

  213. PeaceNow says:

    Kettle1—You’ve got approx. 40 posts today, and you still have time to talk to people at work? I want your job. Just sayin. ;)

  214. kettle1 says:

    peace,

    i cannot do my job until the step before mine is done. they are not done yet. besides i do not go home until my step is done. will be a late night :(

  215. Mike NJ says:

    Kettle,

    Do you screw the cap on the medicine bottle?

    Who saw Dark Knight? What a great movie. I am thinking about going to see it again it was so damn good.

  216. John says:

    WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — House lawmakers approved a sweeping bill to aid homeowners and prop up Fannie Mae on Wednesday in an ambitious move to defuse the housing crisis. By a vote of 272 to 152, the House passed a plan to authorize unlimited credit to Fannie and Freddie, allow the government to insure up to $300 billion in refinanced mortgages and extend a tax break of as much as $7,500 to first-time home buyers. The Senate is expected to act on the bill later this week and President Bush is expected to sign it after dropping a threat to veto it over a $4 billion program allowing local governments to buy foreclosed homes.

  217. John says:

    What’s the time? It’s time to get ill!!

  218. Nicholas says:

    Kettle1,

    “CTFC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) have released their report suggesting that oil prices WERE NOT driven up by speculation.”

    In that document they state that they asked for and have not received a number of statements from groups that trade on the exchange. In the next breath they state that they can show no proof that trading activity proceeded a rise or fall in prices (manipulation).

    Of course your not going to find manipulation in the records of those who give them up willingly.

    Time to curl back into the fetal position…

  219. kettle1 says:

    225 mike,

    yes…

    actually i develop test protocols for pharma equipemt. cant test equipment when its broken.

    Nick

    fetal posiiton???? nope, just go about my day, i’m just another poor average joe who pretends to know something and occasionally makes a lucky guess.

  220. make money says:

    300 billion approved and heading towards the printing press,

    Kettle,

    I think I found a way to solve our energy problem.

    Hook up the Founding Fathers to a generator. Their graves are spinning fast enough we can put this energy crisis dependency to bed once and for all.

  221. Nicholas says:

    “can someone remind who was it that was successful in getting RE assessed taxes reduced?”

    I was able to get taxes reassesed in Ohio and can describe the process that was used there. Hopefully it will help.

    I filled out a “Complaint against the valuation of real property” form at my local assessor’s office. In the form I provided documentation and other proof in order to rebutt the assessor’s claim. Sometime later after a council convened and examined my petition they wrote me back with a reduced RE tax and refunded taxes paid up until that time.

    I provided an appraisal that I had done when I bought the house along with a statement that says “I just bought the house for xxx, it is not possible it is worth the currently assessed value”. I provided loan documents and other records showing the purchase price of the house.

    Becareful with appraisals though, often they may want to speak with the appraiser and he may or may not show up unless you pay him more money (he is not required to most of the time). I strictly noted that the appraiser was not available for contact on my petition. Your case could look pretty crappy if all you have is an appraisal and the appraiser doesn’t show up to defend why he thinks your house has fallen in value.

    There may be laws on how often you can have your property reassessed though so consider that when timing a re-evaluation. Greene County, Ohio assessed property values every three years and you had 60 days to contest the valuation right away. Afterward you had to file a “complaint” as above and they wouldn’t allow further complaints for one year.

  222. Sean says:

    Bye Bye OFHEO and say hello to the “The Federal Housing Finance Agency”

  223. HEHEHE says:

    “allow the government to insure up to $300 billion in refinanced mortgages” Have to love this sh*t, i-banks and mortgage lenders make out like criminals over the course of the past 10 yrs and now Joe Six Pack is there to clean the mess. Good thing Bush put in those income tax cuts too. Hate to see the rich pay their fare share of the money they gorged on over the decade. The subprime schleps won’t pay anything either as they’ll be bankrupt.

    Somebody explain to me why I live in a country where it makes no sense to save money and be financially responsible?

  224. BC Bob says:

    Unlimited credit to Fannie/Freddie. Thank you John Q Public. Now everybody is a home owner/owners. The masses have no idea how they are getting hosed. Every public official that voted in favor should be targeted, regardless of party affiliation. They should be shown the door.

  225. Mikeinwaiting says:

    BC 234 Every public official that voted in favor should be targeted, regardless of party affiliation. They should be shown the door.
    Yes & then some. We just got sold up the river.

  226. Nicholas says:

    I understand that wholesale bailout of the GSE isn’t a good thing because it reduces the downside risk for publically traded companies.

    What would you suggest they do then, nothing? something? everything?

    I heard someone state the position that they would rather have nationalization then what is happening. I can see that as a rational position.

    Lawmakers are sitting around watching one of the worst impending financial crisises of our time and they probably are scrambling for answers that don’t result in their sugar being taken away. Fannie and Freddie have poured millions into the political system, nationalization would stop that sugar.

    Step into their position and propose a way forward.

  227. Raul says:

    How the housing rescue bill can help you
    http://biz.yahoo.com/cnnm/080723/072308_housing_rescue_guide.html?.&.pf=loans

  228. Willow says:

    #109

    State range near Clinton right off Rte 78.

  229. Mikeinwaiting says:

    My Re agent called today have to give her credit during our conversation without prompting said that Re would never go up at the rate it did ever again. She is a keeper.
    Wasn’t to happy as I told her I extended my lease another year. Things are really getting bad up here in the highlands, or good if your me.

  230. Mikeinwaiting says:

    236 Nicholas It is not about their sugar it is whats best for the people they SERVE as public officials, get it. That is why we are so pissed off.

  231. Hobokenite says:

    kettle,

    Thought you’d find this interesting.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/24/world/europe/24kremlin.html

  232. Clotpoll says:

    Nick (236)-

    An unbridled, unregulated, look-the-other-way market was fine when the trend was up. Now that the trend has reversed, the pain has to be borne by those not responsible for causing it?

    The prescription for recovery is a big dose of pain. As in: loss…massive loss. The market clears itself, all the bad actors are punished, and the rest of us get an object lesson in what can happen when risk management gets tossed out the window.

    Instead, the powers that be seem hell-bent on creating a hybrid economic crisis: a cross between the Depression and the Japanese funk. To date, they are succeeding beyond expectation.

    Like BC, I feel like I’m turning Japanese. Pretty soon, I’m gonna wake up and eat cold rice and fish for breakfast.

  233. Clotpoll says:

    Mike (239)-

    “My Re agent called today have to give her credit during our conversation without prompting said that Re would never go up at the rate it did ever again. She is a keeper.”

    Nope, she’s an idiot, too. In about 10 years, we’ll have spawned a whole new gang of buyers, who will have no painful RE memories and a taste for luxury that exists well beyond their means.

  234. Clotpoll says:

    The story of American RE is about nothing more than a constant boom/bust cycle.

  235. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Clot I would think that even though what you say is true in regard to the new gang,
    they need the help of the fed low rates & banks anyone with a pulse gets a loan. They may rise at a normal rate not the 130% mine did from when I bought in 98 & sold in 06.
    But I hope you are right because I will cash out again!

  236. Nicholas says:

    Unregulated, look-the-other way market produced a dangerous climb and will result in a dangerous crash, possibly permanently injuring those involved.

    Kinda like joy-riders driving too fast without seatbelts get into a car accident and die. Result, some mother’s children are now dead.

    The bail-out aims to put air-bags in that vehicle to keep those kids from dying. The result they want is kids that are alive so that they can beat the crap out of them, not to mourn at their funeral.

    I’m still pissed and want someone to be punished but I don’t think that letting them collapse is the right thing either.

  237. reinvestor X says:

    It’s one thing to post links to a cartoon site, but quite another when these clowns try to suggest that our great nation’s banking system is insolvent. IT’S OUTRAGEOUS TO SUGGEST THAT.

    I have a funny feeling that someone is short financials and they will pull any low down and dirty little trick to make money including creating websites with negative thoughts to undermine the entire economy. It’s not enought to undermine the real estate markets. These terrorists won’t stop until they’ve destroyed us.

    HEHEHE Says:
    July 23rd, 2008 at 1:11 pm
    Count on Mish to sum it all up:

    You Know The Banking System’s Unsound When…

    http://www.minyanville.com/articles/MER-GS-C-jpm-LEH-fre/index/a/18162

  238. Tom says:

    Ok, some of you people here are lawyers, so how does a general counsel also manage to bill private time? Story here.

  239. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Here we go.

  240. Mikeinwaiting says:

    OK RE X I’ll bite just read that link was anything stated a lie?
    We can slat or interpret anyway we want but it is not false hood.

  241. Clotpoll says:

    Here’s a bit of a brainbuster that’s vexing me:

    Other industrialized nations have universal healthcare. In these countries, universal healthcare has come about because society has reached a consensus decision that it is right and good that the care of the ill and helpless is a collective responsibility.

    In the US, we cannot reach a consensus about who is deserving of healthcare…or, if healthcare is a right due anyone. The argument never proceeds far, because it’s usually supplanted by a more vitriolic argument over who is “more” American, and therefore, more deserving of universal healthcare…were it to ever come to pass. Great amounts of energy are also expended in the fight over who should be denied healthcare.

    However, American society- through its legislative and executive proxies- has a never-ending thirst for bailing out the idiot, the amateur speculator, the predatory lender and the unscrupulous marketer. We cannot race toward the burning building of economic consequence fast enough, seeking to salve the wounds of the worst of the burning victims.

    Why have we got it so backwards? Why do we deny that access to a subsistence level of healthcare is a human right, while eagerly backstopping the most egregious financial follies ever witnessed by mankind?

  242. Clotpoll says:

    Mike (245)-

    Trust me. After RTC, I was convinced human beings could never again act so stupid around RE. I cut my teeth in the game during that era, and every single day for about three years was a living, slow-motion hell.

    I now know better.

  243. Nicholas says:

    I don’t think that it is outrageous to think the nations banking system is insolvent.

    Decline in property values isn’t recorded on the books. A bank manages its asset vs. liabilities ratio very carefully as that tells them how much money they can lend. With a large drop in house prices this can leave them way over-exposed. This over-exposure is a real risk that is not shown on the books because the property never gets re-assessed.

    The banks know that they are over-exposed and every additional forclosure shows them just how bad the situation has become. They react by not lending anymore and waiting for amoritization to cure the wound. Problem is that everyone has stopped lending which means house prices continue to fall making the wounds bigger, not smaller, over time.

  244. Tom says:

    “Why have we got it so backwards? Why do we deny that access to a subsistence level of healthcare is a human right, while eagerly backstopping the most egregious financial follies ever witnessed by mankind?”

    It’s pretty simple. Money trumps compassion. We can do it but it would disrupt the medical, insurance, pharmaceutical, medical schools and other industries.

    I think if we could just cut down all the middle men that are in between the payment from patients to doctors things would be a lot better. Why is it that a doctor that gets paid through some sort of insurance is willing to accept a fraction of what he charges the uninsured? Especially considering that getting paid through insurance means dolling out a portion along the way.

    It would be a big mess to nationalize healthcare and there are lots of people with big bucks fighting to protect their interests.

    A lot of things in this country have gotten out of hand, healthcare being one of them. People have been allowed to run amok and make a real mess out of things.

  245. Clotpoll says:

    tard (247)-

    Answer me this: per your request (and many others’), interest rates have been steadily whittled down over the past year. However, the spectacular economic recovery this was supposed to spawn has instead turned into one big poo pie. The yield curve has also righted itself, yet banks continue to lose money at a staggering rate.

    Given that aggressive rate-cutting has probably only succeeded in making things worse, what does this say about the underlying solvency of our financial system? We injected the patient with money, and all the injected the money doesn’t even show up in the x-ray of the patient.

    If the problem underlying financials is no longer liquidity, what else could it be, other than solvency?

  246. Tom says:

    “Nope, she’s an idiot, too. In about 10 years, we’ll have spawned a whole new gang of buyers, who will have no painful RE memories and a taste for luxury that exists well beyond their means.”

    Yeah, but do you think the banks will be so stupid and the government so willing to let them do the same crap?

    Seriously, what happened in the last few years regarding consumer credit is criminal and the effects are felt throughout the economy. The terrorists specifically targeted our economy but we didn’t let that destroy us. Meanwhile we let our own greed screw us over. I saw we build some more holding cells in gitmo.

  247. Confused In NJ says:

    The Pittsburg Cancer Center just came out with a warning on a link between cell phone usage and brain cancer. Maybe that is the cause of the last ten years of bad decisions from Congress. Teddy K may be the first of many in DC with brain cancer.

  248. reinvestor X says:

    This is for Mike as well. Sure, there are a few institutions that may have some difficulties, but one can’t paint the entire system as being insolvent. For example, I happen to bank at a credit union and I sleep very well at night. Some of your smaller local bank are just fine also.

    For someone to declare that the entire US banking system is insolvent is an outrage. It’s not.

    Clotpoll Says:
    July 23rd, 2008 at 6:47 pm
    tard (247)-

    Answer me this: per your request (and many others’), interest rates have been steadily whittled down over the past year. However, the spectacular economic recovery this was supposed to spawn has instead turned into one big poo pie. The yield curve has also righted itself, yet banks continue to lose money at a staggering rate.

    Given that aggressive rate-cutting has probably only succeeded in making things worse, what does this say about the underlying solvency of our financial system? We injected the patient with money, and all the injected the money doesn’t even show up in the x-ray of the patient.

    If the problem underlying financials is no longer liquidity, what else could it be, other than solvency?

  249. Mikeinwaiting says:

    TOM 256 This was my point in 245.
    “Yeah, but do you think the banks will be so stupid and the government so willing to let them do the same crap?”

    But then again human nature being what it is & no long term memory in our government Clot could be right. We shall see.

  250. reinvestor X says:

    Oh boy. Stop your bleeding heart.

    One of the reasons that we can’t do heathcare is because of other commitments we already have. I happen to think that keeping the terrorists at bay is a form of healthcare. That’s the spending priority. Other nations don’t have the same level of commitments.

    Clotpoll Says:
    July 23rd, 2008 at 6:35 pm
    Here’s a bit of a brainbuster that’s vexing me:

    Other industrialized nations have universal healthcare. In these countries, universal healthcare has come about because society has reached a consensus decision that it is right and good that the care of the ill and helpless is a collective responsibility.

    In the US, we cannot reach a consensus about who is deserving of healthcare…or, if healthcare is a right due anyone. The argument never proceeds far, because it’s usually supplanted by a more vitriolic argument over who is “more” American, and therefore, more deserving of universal healthcare…were it to ever come to pass. Great amounts of energy are also expended in the fight over who should be denied healthcare.

    However, American society- through its legislative and executive proxies- has a never-ending thirst for bailing out the idiot, the amateur speculator, the predatory lender and the unscrupulous marketer. We cannot race toward the burning building of economic consequence fast enough, seeking to salve the wounds of the worst of the burning victims.

    Why have we got it so backwards? Why do we deny that access to a subsistence level of healthcare is a human right, while eagerly backstopping the most egregious financial follies ever witnessed by mankind

  251. Mikeinwaiting says:

    RE X 258 I bank at Hudson City & also sleep well, but you have to admit we are in real deep sh*t.

  252. kettle1 says:

    mike,

    now i can post another 40 comments while i watch a machine run for 6 hours and collect data…… there are some open slots if you are looking for work, i just won a few more contracts! so technically yes you can have my job. care to apply?

  253. kettle1 says:

    mikeNJ that is, not mikeinwaiting

  254. Tom says:

    kettle1,

    what kind of work do you do and do you get to bill for your waiting time? :)

  255. kettle1 says:

    264 tom,

    depends on the situation, often , yes

    pharma engineering

  256. Clotpoll says:

    vodka (265)-

    Do you know how to make LSD?

  257. kettle1 says:

    267

    no comment, that would be illegal

  258. All Hype says:

    Well the China/Russia bailout bill got passed by the congress today. Good times ahead for us in the US of A. Get used to $6 gas.

  259. lostinny says:

    268 Kettle
    It’s not illegal to know how, as long as you don’t make it. :)

  260. Tom says:

    kettle1, sounds like a cool gig.

    by the way, regarding McCain… I used to like him pre-Bush, but I just can’t see him as president.

    When Bush screws up something he says, I just chalk it up to him being who he is. When I see McCain screwing up what he’s trying to say and holding the mic the way he does, I feel like I’m watching a feeble old man that can’t remember how to get home or what year this is.

  261. kettle1 says:

    looking to re-live the 60’s/70’s clot?

  262. 3b says:

    #246 Nicholas:I’m still pissed and want someone to be punished but I don’t think that letting them collapse is the right thing either.

    I say BUCK EM!!!!

  263. 3b says:

    #247 rediaperwipe:These terrorists won’t stop until they’ve destroyed us.

    Go back to sleep douche bag.

  264. 3b says:

    #250 Mike: Do not waste your time;he is an idiot.

  265. 3b says:

    #251 clot:However, American society- through its legislative and executive proxies- has a never-ending thirst for bailing out the idiot, the amateur speculator, the predatory lender and the unscrupulous marketer.

    You are talking about rediaperwipe.

  266. kettle1 says:

    Nick,

    why would we not let them fail? if we prop up the failed institution we simply encourage its peers. You are also rewarding corruption and mediocracy.

  267. 3b says:

    #276 kettle: Exactly. now that I have calmed down from recrybaby’s posts.

    I apologize for my rants. That terrorist brings out the worst in me.

  268. bairen says:

    #276 kettle1

    “You are also rewarding corruption and mediocracy.”

    You’ve just described NJ’s government.

  269. kettle1 says:

    end of empire sale!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/5tbea5

    video at bottom of page

  270. bairen says:

    I think reinvestorx is either

    1) Steve Corbert
    2) Grim
    3) A college kid who can’t get any
    4) A talking head on faux news
    5) Dick Cheney

    All are equally possible.

  271. kettle1 says:

    bairen,

    i vote for #4 or 5

  272. John says:

    it has been a week now and I am already starting to miss the recession.

  273. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Not to worry John it will be back soon.

  274. John says:

    I am in mgt can I apply to be your boss? I like to watch people work, I am good at it.

    kettle1 Says:
    July 23rd, 2008 at 7:24 pm
    mike,

    now i can post another 40 comments while i watch a machine run for 6 hours and collect data…… there are some open slots if you are looking for work, i just won a few more contracts! so technically yes you can have my job. care to apply?

  275. stu says:

    Tom nailed the issues with the banks. They just very well might be insolvent. Every home loan that they made from 2004 through late 2007 is under water. This includes the primest of prime.

    Gator and I have high 700 credit scores, no credit card debt/home equity loans or college loans. We bought our house for 480K in September 2004 with a loan of 384K and put 20% down. We even got an amazing price on our home as it assessed for 650K during our reval in October 2006.

    Today, the house across the street is up for sale at 524K and probably will sell for 500K. The house is quite comparable to ours. In another 30 K, we will be upside down on our loan as we have paid mostly interest on our loan due to the amortization schedule which is mostly interest over the first few years of the loan. Following Tom’s logic where the banks will justifiably not continue to lend to prospective and qualified buyers until RE hits bottom, our home value will continue to drop. Although we have enough money in the reserves to afford a few years of payments even if one of us loses our employment, we would serious consider the jingle mail option prior to paying for our mortgage from savings. With the huge backlog of foreclosures (meaning we could squat and save approximately $40,000 for a year, it would be significantly more cost effective to rent for the next five years as our cash reserves would continue to build and we would buy a new home as our damaged credit cleaned itself up.

    I hope this clearly illustrates the solvency issues with the banks. They are currently owed $364,000 on a property that might end up being worth $300,000 and we are prime and pay on time. Throw in the $14K a year on taxes and another 2 or 3 K on annual maintenance and the banks are insolvent. Consider how little savings people have in the bank and the lack of incentive for people to open up CDs and you can see how the banks are completely screwed. Throw in the credit card debt, car loans, and commercial loans many have on construction projects that should not be completed due to lack of demand and it is a recipe for bank disaster.

    If unemployment kicks up or massive inflation, then the banks will run out of money.

    I’ve been sharing this example for years and it looks like it is becoming truer every day.

    Anyone remember my Red Bank friends. They made 150K on their original cape when they traded up to a much larger home. They are significantly upside down on their recently refinanced loan, only dad works and can barely cover the bills as they continue to spend, spend and spend. If he loses his job, then the bank takes a $100K hit immediately. They are prime also!!! The sad thing is that their story is like that of much of my peers.

    Think the banks are still solvent 25.25?

  276. kettle1 says:

    how long before we have one of these?

    http://tinyurl.com/6alv8u

  277. 1987 Condo Buyer says:

    #285 Great. So me and Mrs. spent from 1987 until 1999 with our upside down condo..making payments and finally selling for a 40% loss after 12 years of payments. Bought in 1987 for $132,000 ($140,000 with closing costs)..made payments for 12 years..sold for $92,000 in 1999 and brought $10,000 with me to closing…and all along I should have just mailed the keys back….bummer….

  278. kettle1 says:

    john, dont forget,

    i am actually a fish monger at a local whole foods who hangs out on a blog to feel important. want to be a fish monger too?

  279. Pat says:

    Stu, you’ve made me only more rabidly wolverine in my quest to purchase simply for the new tax credit, and then invest the money as rapidly as I can to cover as much of my daughter’s future tax liability differential on this bailout.

    We will then default.

    I just need the next chapter of John’s Little Guy book.

  280. 3b says:

    #282/283 John/Mike: It (the recession) never left.

  281. 3b says:

    #288 1987: Me and the Mrs, silimiar story bought in 87, sold it in 97 for 2500 less than we paid for it. But we did the right thing we stayed and paid it off.

    So much for doing the right thing. ANd to think doing the right thing used to be such an admireable American attribute.

  282. Pat says:

    John, you seriously need to do an internet video book.

    First three chapters free, rest @$1.99 per download.

    Just make Chapter One “Profiting from Current Housing Legislation.”

    I’m cheap.

  283. stu says:

    Pat,

    I support your strategy and see it as a good way to get even!

  284. Sean says:

    Heard this evening on Bloomberg that any given day there are 18 Million vacant housing units in the USA, with approx 7 Million that are second homes. Still leaves way too much inventory out there and once these properties trickle into the foreclosure I think to myself thing are really going to get ugly, then I read this article about Builders losing financing in the middle of projects and now I know the banks are toast, the current 300 Million approved today is just a drop in the bucket.

    Builders Sue Banks That Pull Financing
    As Construction Projects Lie Unfinished

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121675515709274459.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

  285. Cindy says:

    (279) Kettle1 – Thanks – I needed a laugh…

    (285) Stu – I am holding my own (purchased 1999 – $115,000.)for now but so far I have seen these declines: ( est. appraised value )

    2006 $325,000
    2007 $285,000
    2008 $225,000 (about 2003 prices)

    2009 ?

  286. 1987 Condo Buyer says:

    #292…many others were in the same boat..we all buckled down and made it through….years of using Folgers coffee “singles” at work..I figured I paid $0.11 per cup of coffee + my tuna sandwich for lunch!!

  287. Tom says:

    “I’m still pissed and want someone to be punished but I don’t think that letting them collapse is the right thing either.”

    I think they should do what they do with insurance companies. THey should have a state regulator take them over. Isn’t that kind of what happened with IndyMac?

    Clean em out, fine them to get the profits they stored away back, control them, then slowly let them on their own and let people know if they get out of line there will be hell to pay.

    Now if we only had a government that we could trust to not screw things up.

    I know some of you won’t agree with this, but the financial institutions have been given a lot of leeway in the last few years and legislation has been changed to do this. It wouldn’t have been so bad if they had some self control. But they didn’t. They were like punks that did whatever they wanted because they knew mommy and daddy would bail them out.

    Seriously, so much federal money is going in to rescue these companies, they might as well become government owned and operated. That way wall st can keep their short term mindset out of long term instruments. Fannie Mae was a good idea at the time but things changed after it was privatized.

    I wonder if Freddie Mac or Fannie Mae would have started dealing with subprime loans in 2002 if they were still government controlled.

  288. Cindy says:

    (292) 3b

    “So much for doing the right thing. And to think doing the right thing used to be such an admirable American attribute.”

    Still is in my book, 3b.

    (297) 1987 Condo Buyer

    I still have a tuna sandwich almost every day…Yuban – not Folgers..

    I don’t think being frugal will never go out of style.

  289. kettle1 says:

    Cindy,

    frugal wont go out of style, it is however about to be forced on the majority of the american population

  290. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Kettle 300 And talking to people they have no clue. Its going to be a rude awakening.

  291. Jaywalk says:

    I was watching the NewsHour on Channel 13 tonight, they did a segment on the housing crisis.

    I had to chuckle when the first words out of the bigwig from the Mortgage Bankers’ Association were “Predictions are hard, especially when you’re talking about the future”.

    duh.

  292. sas says:

    “Pittsburgh cancer center warns of cell phone risks”
    http://tinyurl.com/5syacz

  293. BC Bob says:

    Nick,

    This scheme has absolutely zero to do with those in/about to be foreclosed. It’s simply a bailout of the capital markets. Agency bonds of fannie/freddie sit in practically every central bank, institution, pension plan, etc… China, Russia and Bill Gross are huge holders. It’s just another Bear, albeit a much grander scale.

    Mudd’s,Fannie, total comp in 2006 was close to $15M. Not bad for an incompetent, idiotic banker who allowed his firm to increase its risk/leverage to close to 70-1. This, during a period where we had just witnessed one of the most irrational bubbles in our history. Despite obvious cracks, warnings and increases in delinquincies/foreclosure they forged ahead with reckless lending.

    How about allowing capitalism room to breathe. Let the holders of these agency bonds suffer their fate. Why should taxpayers pay for their mistakes/greed? Were their profits shared with taxpayers during the boom? Blow it out, allow it to crumble. Mindless risk management should not be presented with a backstop.

    Without govt intervention this bust may have found its true bottom in 2-3 years. Now with govt meddling, maybe 10-15 years. We are all turning Japanese, I really think so.

  294. sas says:

    The Case for Precaution in the Use of Cell Phones
    Advice from University of Pittsburgh Cancer Institute Based on Advice from an International Expert Panel

    http://tinyurl.com/5tgfgp

  295. jamil says:

    http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/10-most-overpaid-jobs-us/story.aspx?guid=%7B954AA053%2DF953%2D43F3%2DBBC8%2D63D351A3BF2A%7D&dist=TNMostRead

    “Ten most overpaid jobs in the U.S.”

    1) Mutual-fund managers (Stock-fund managers can easily earn $500,000 to $1 million a year including bonuses — even though only 3 in 10 beat the market in the last 10 years.)

    4) Orthodontists
    (For a 35-hour workweek, orthodontists earn a median $350,000)

    6) Real estate agents selling high-end homes
    ($60,000 a year, those in affluent areas can pull down $200,000-plus for half the effort)

    7) Skycaps at major airports (uniformed baggage handlers who check in luggage at curbside at the busiest metro airports pull in $70,000 to $100,000 a year..On top of their salaries, peak earners can take in $300 or more a day in tips.)

    8) West Coast longshoremen (average of $112,000..Office clerks who log shipping records into computers will earn $136,000.)

  296. Cindy says:

    (304) BC Bob

    “Without govt intervention this bust may have found its true bottom in 2-3 years.”

    As you can see by my house numbers, California was attempting to do just that.

    I read the Wiki on the Savings and Loan Crisis recently and Post S/L crisis new regulations were put into place. 1989 FIRREA

    “During the Savings and Loan crisis, from 1986 to 1995 the number of US federally insured savings and loans in the US declined from 3,234 to 1,645.”

    Here’s a good one – “A taxpayer funded government bailout related to mortgages during the Savings and Loan Crisis may have created a moral hazard and acted as encouragement to lenders to make similar higher risk loans during the 2007 subprime mortgage crisis of 2007.”

  297. kettle1 says:

    a great quote from another blogger

    moral hazard will be taken not just to a whole other level, but into a different dimension, and a universe unknown to man. A small step for man, a giant leap for mankind.

  298. Laughing all the way says:

    still catching up on yesterday, but im missing out on something: What is SKF?

    i ran a google and i can’t tell why some of you are hard up for it.

    /market neophyte

  299. chicagofinance says:

    check ticker

  300. kettle1 says:

    312 laughing.

    its an EFT , ultrashort financials

    http://www.proshares.com/funds/skf.html

  301. kettle1 says:

    oops EFT = ETF

  302. kettle1 says:

    so what happens to the credit card and other personal loans if the SHTF? its not realistic that visa/mastercard/amex are going to collect on 300 million people if a true depression scenario hits. Does it just get written off or does the gov attempt some sort of bailout?

    No i dont have any plans here, but this seems like it could be a real event given the manner in which real events seem to be playing out.

  303. kettle1 says:

    John,

    still watching the fish flop! want to join me?

    http://tinyurl.com/6efuct

  304. reinvestorX says:

    THIS IS AN ANOTHER OUTRAGEOUS POST! I don’t understand how you people can read this stuff and not have a problem.

    Stu here is proposing that people now screw the banks. It’s not enough that you hurt real estate investors and homeowners. Why stop there? Why not topple the entire financial system? This is true terrorism.

    Let me ask you Stu, what will happen if we can’t protect and promote freedom in this world if this nation is unended financially? What will happen to the world and the USA?

    Many of you have begun a contagion, but you don’t want to stop at housing. You want to see the entire economic system in tatters. If by chance you don’t want to see that, then stop talking about the banking system unraveling and trust our leaders to resolve these issues. Funny, I don’t see anyone propose any solutions unless you believe the solution is that we collapse economically.

    This sort of talk needs to stop!

    stu Says:
    July 23rd, 2008 at 8:41 pm
    Tom nailed the issues with the banks. They just very well might be insolvent. Every home loan that they made from 2004 through late 2007 is under water. This includes the primest of prime.

    Gator and I have high 700 credit scores, no credit card debt/home equity loans or college loans. We bought our house for 480K in September 2004 with a loan of 384K and put 20% down. We even got an amazing price on our home as it assessed for 650K during our reval in October 2006.

    Today, the house across the street is up for sale at 524K and probably will sell for 500K. The house is quite comparable to ours. In another 30 K, we will be upside down on our loan as we have paid mostly interest on our loan due to the amortization schedule which is mostly interest over the first few years of the loan. Following Tom’s logic where the banks will justifiably not continue to lend to prospective and qualified buyers until RE hits bottom, our home value will continue to drop. Although we have enough money in the reserves to afford a few years of payments even if one of us loses our employment, we would serious consider the jingle mail option prior to paying for our mortgage from savings. With the huge backlog of foreclosures (meaning we could squat and save approximately $40,000 for a year, it would be significantly more cost effective to rent for the next five years as our cash reserves would continue to build and we would buy a new home as our damaged credit cleaned itself up.

    I hope this clearly illustrates the solvency issues with the banks. They are currently owed $364,000 on a property that might end up being worth $300,000 and we are prime and pay on time. Throw in the $14K a year on taxes and another 2 or 3 K on annual maintenance and the banks are insolvent. Consider how little savings people have in the bank and the lack of incentive for people to open up CDs and you can see how the banks are completely screwed. Throw in the credit card debt, car loans, and commercial loans many have on construction projects that should not be completed due to lack of demand and it is a recipe for bank disaster.

    If unemployment kicks up or massive inflation, then the banks will run out of money.

    I’ve been sharing this example for years and it looks like it is becoming truer every day.

    Anyone remember my Red Bank friends. They made 150K on their original cape when they traded up to a much larger home. They are significantly upside down on their recently refinanced loan, only dad works and can barely cover the bills as they continue to spend, spend and spend. If he loses his job, then the bank takes a $100K hit immediately. They are prime also!!! The sad thing is that their story is like that of much of my peers.

    Think the banks are still solvent 25.25?

  305. kettleX says:

    RE101

    Why not topple the entire financial system?

    GREAT IDEA. if everyone stops servicing any and all debt for the next 6 months we have a guaranteed financial hiroshima!!!!

    Sall we start a debt rebel pact?!?!?!?!?

  306. Cindy says:

    On the being frugal note…

    There’s nothing like a good meatloaf. Add a little sausage – it makes it juicier..and use fresh bread cubes – not bread crumbs.

    If you bake several potatoes with it you’ll have dinner for a few nights or… meatloaf sandwiches for work.

  307. reinvestorX says:

    WHY AM I NOT SURPRISED THAT YOU THINK TOPPLING THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM IS A GOOD IDEA?

    You’ve been a radical ever since you showed up here. As a matter of fact, you’re one of the most radical people who post here.

    kettleX Says:
    July 23rd, 2008 at 10:29 pm
    RE101

    Why not topple the entire financial system?

    GREAT IDEA. if everyone stops servicing any and all debt for the next 6 months we have a guaranteed financial hiroshima!!!!

    Sall we start a debt rebel pact?!?!?!?!?

  308. still_looking says:

    317 ket,

    Call him by his real name: RE404

    I still personally love Tard

    sl

  309. reinvestorX says:

    Geez. You must be 3b’s significant other.

    Cindy Says:
    July 23rd, 2008 at 10:33 pm
    On the being frugal note…

    There’s nothing like a good meatloaf. Add a little sausage – it makes it juicier..and use fresh bread cubes – not bread crumbs.

    If you bake several potatoes with it you’ll have dinner for a few nights or… meatloaf sandwiches for work.

  310. still_looking says:

    but then again, rediaperwipe is a close second fav…

    sl

  311. Cindy says:

    (321) Why thank you for the compliment reinvester. You are being particularly kind to me this evening.

  312. reinvestorX says:

    And you need to be concerned about the damn patients in the emergency room rather than picking names for me. If you were taking care of what you’re paid to do rather then sloughing off here, all of our damn healthcare costs would likely decline.

    still_looking Says:
    July 23rd, 2008 at 10:38 pm
    317 ket,

    Call him by his real name: RE404

    I still personally love Tard

    sl

  313. kettleX says:

    Re404

    You’ve been a radical ever since you showed up here. As a matter of fact, you’re one of the most radical people who post here.

    oh stop it, you are going to make me blush!!!!

  314. randyj says:

    i think oil is the new proxy for inflation. what we’re seeing with the correction in oil prices is just a short-term situation. long term oil is going up, regardless of supply… because the rest of the world realizes that this is the best way to make the average American pay for the stupidity of their government. obviously gold will move higher as well, but that doesn’t cause pain for the average American. skyrocketing oil is what infiltrates the entire economy and causes American’s to feel poorer… as they should, considering the bloated excesses of recent memory and the popping of the biggest credit bubble in the history of the world.

    I think oil is the safest long-term play…. thoughts?

  315. reinvestorX says:

    Complementing you?? I guess you’ve not heard about 3b’s substitutes for toilet tissue that he’s too damn cheap to buy. Believe me, if you knew about this, you’d distance yourself from him rather than be complemented by the comparison.

    Cindy Says:
    July 23rd, 2008 at 10:42 pm
    (321) Why thank you for the compliment reinvester. You are being particularly kind to me this evening.

  316. Tom says:

    “Stu here is proposing that people now screw the banks. It’s not enough that you hurt real estate investors and homeowners. Why stop there? Why not topple the entire financial system? This is true terrorism.”

    The banks made their bed, now they have to lie in it.

  317. All Hype says:

    Hey reinvestorX:

    You got your terrorist bailout today. The Dems gave 225 votes and the Repubs gave about 45.

    Good luck to you and your Chinese, Japanase and Russian (my cousins)investors!

    Woo!

  318. All Hype says:

    Hey reinvestorX: Now that I think about it, I am going to call you democratluvrX from now on.

  319. still_looking says:

    All Hype… c’mon now.. he really is 404!

    btw, missed ya!!

    sl

  320. chicagofinance says:

    Fast Money: Wall Street Got Drunk!
    Posted By:Lee Brodie

    In a now-famous clip circulated on Wall Street floors, President Bush is caught saying during a closed-door fundraiser in Houston that “Wall Street got drunk and now it’s got a hangover.”

    So in the spirit of that statement, we present:

    “The Top 3 Ways You Know You’re Really Drunk on Wall Street”

    No. 3: Every time Wachovia cuts its dividend, you do a shot of Jager.

    No. 2: You keep picturing Hank Paulson in a toga.

    No.1: You stumble out of the bar at 2am and tap the Fed’s discount window to buy one more round.

  321. njpatient says:

    I’m really drunk, but I’m not on Wall Street

  322. afe says:

    Not sure if this has been posted before but boy it sure brought the message home that this financial crisis is already affecting families and lives in very serious ways. Apologies for ending the night on a down-note.

    http://www.walletpop.com/mortgages/article/_a/mother-53-kills-self-before-foreclosure/20080723171309990001

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