Weekend Open Discussion

This is the time and place to post observations about your local areas, comments on news stories or the New Jersey housing market, open house reports, etc. If you have any questions you wanted to ask earlier in the week but never posted them up, let’s have them. Also a good place to post suggestions, requests for information, criticism, and praise.

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For new readers that have only read the messages displayed on the main page, take a look through the archives, a substantial amount of information has been put online in the past year. The archives can be accessed by using the links found in the menus on the right hand side of the page.

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500 Responses to Weekend Open Discussion

  1. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    Foreclosures Double in Second Quarter as U.S. Home Prices Fall

    U.S. foreclosure filings more than doubled in the second quarter from a year earlier as falling home prices left borrowers owing more on mortgages than their properties were worth.

    One in every 171 U.S. homeowners lost their house to foreclosure, received a default notice or was warned of a pending auction, an increase of 121 percent from a year earlier and a 14 percent rise from the first quarter, RealtyTrac Inc. said today in a statement. Almost 740,000 properties were in some stage of the foreclosure process, the most since the Irvine, California-based real estate data company began reporting in January 2005.

    “Rising foreclosures are putting downward pressure on prices, increasing the possibility that homeowners will go upside- down on their mortgages,” said Sheryl King, chief U.S. economist at Merrill Lynch & Co. in New York. “That will cause more losses in mortgage portfolios and less willingness from investors to securitize mortgages and therefore fewer mortgages.”

    New York filings increased 62 percent from a year earlier to 16,025, with one in every 493 households in a stage of foreclosure, the 30th-highest rate.

    New Jersey filings rose 140 percent. One in every 201 households in the state received notice, the 12th-highest rate in the U.S.

  2. grim says:

    From the AP:

    Mass. woman kills self before home foreclosure

    A 53-year-old wife and mother fatally shot herself shortly after faxing a letter to her mortgage company saying that by the time they foreclosed on her house that day, she would be dead.

    Police said that Carlene Balderrama used her husband’s high-powered rifle to kill herself Tuesday afternoon, shortly after faxing the letter at 2:30 p.m.

  3. grim says:

    From the AFP:

    US home foreclosures jump 14% in 2nd quarter: survey

    US home foreclosures leapt nearly 14 percent in the second quarter from the previous quarter, research group RealtyTrac said Friday in a sign of deepening housing woes.

    On an annual basis, home foreclosure filings soared 121 percent from the same period in 2007, RealtyTrac said in releasing a survey of the country’s 100 largest metropolitan areas.

    Foreclosures have spiked in the worst housing slump in decades and a related credit crisis that have brought the economy to a crawl.

    With home prices falling and unemployment and inflation rising, homeowners are increasingly hard-pressed to make their home loan payments.

    RealtyTrac said that foreclosure filings were reported on 739,714 US properties during the second quarter.

    The California-based company said that one in every 171 US households had received a foreclosure filing and the distress was nationwide.

    According to the survey, 48 of the 50 states and 95 of the 100 major city regions had experienced year-over-year increases in foreclosure activity.

  4. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    U.S. foreclosures more than double in second quarter

    U.S. foreclosures in the second quarter more than doubled from the year-earlier quarter and rose nearly 14% from the previous quarter, RealtyTrac said Friday. “Although much of the fallout from foreclosures is being driven by rampant activity in a few states, such as Nevada, California, Florida, Ohio, Arizona and Michigan, most areas of the country are seeing at least some increase in foreclosure activity,” said James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac. Bank repossessions accounted for 30% of the activity, up from 24% in the first quarter, which RealtyTrac showed was a sign of progression toward purging the problem loans out of the system.

  5. grim says:

    From CNN/Money:

    Foreclosure filings up 120%

    Foreclosures continue to soar, with 220,000 homes lost to bank repossessions in the second quarter of this year, according to the latest statistics from RealtyTrac, an online marketer of foreclosed homes. That’s nearly triple the number from the same period in 2007.

    Because foreclosure filings are growing so quickly, RealtyTrac will have to reevaluate its foreclosure forecast for the year, according to spokesman Rick Sharga.

    “We’ve been saying foreclosures will total 1.9 million to 2 million this year,” he said. “But midway through the year, we’re already at 1.4 million so we’re going to be raising our projections.”

    And there is more bad news: Bank repossessions are up as a proportion of total filings, representing 30% of the notices issued during the quarter, up from 24% a year ago.

    “I don’t think that’s a surprise if you look at the general conditions out there,” said Brian Bethune, chief financial economist for Global Insight. “There have been six straight moves of weaker employment this year. The ongoing problems in the housing market are compounded by a generally weaker economy. Foreclosures won’t go down until we start to see employment move up again.”

  6. grim says:

    From the Star Ledger:

    N.J. faces loss of billions — and coastline — as climate changes, report says

    New Jersey is facing losses of tens of billions of dollars over the next few decades from the effects of climate change, according to a 17-page report an independent research group released today.

    A rapid rise in sea level, increased flooding and more frequent and more intense storms will damage the state’s coastal communities, including businesses, infrastructure and freshwater supplies, the Center for Integrative Environmental Research at the University of Maryland said.

    The rising sea level also poses risks to coastal shipping, commercial fishing and tourism. New Jersey’s coastal communities generate 70 percent of the state’s total annual tourism dollars, according to the researchers, who also issued reports for seven other states.

    The study is one of the first to examine the impact of climate change on state economies.

    “We don’t have a crystal ball and can’t predict specific bottom lines, but the trend is very clear,” said the study’s coordinator, Matthias Ruth. “Climate change will cost billions in the long run and the bottom line will be red.”

  7. grim says:

    From HousingWire:

    Fitch Updates Ratings Model; Projects Steep Housing Price Declines

    Fitch Ratings said Thursday that it had enhanced its U.S. residential mortgage loss model, called ResiLogic, a key component of the agency’s overall approach to assessing U.S. RMBS new-issue ratings. While the new-issue market has been essentially dead for all of 2008, Fitch’s revisions suggest that the agency is preparing for where the market might be headed next: seasoned mortgage issuance.

    They also suggest a very bearish take on housing prices over the next five years: Fitch said in its report that it is expecting home prices to decline by an average of 25 percent in real terms at the national level over the next five years, starting from the second quarter of 2008.

    And that’s the base case scenario.

  8. RPatrick says:

    One it’s up 120% from all time lows right?

    Two, wow once you start barely making ends meet NJ taxes the heck out of you. I knew it was biased when I used to get the federal EITC but still had to pay NJ.

    Three, why does the tax payer not lobby against the labor waste in state government?

  9. NJl$or says:

    I noticed the published # of foreclosure in various stages in brgdn was under 10 per months jan-june.

  10. Essex says:

    I look forward to the new waterline….I have always wanted waterfront property.

    BOOYAH

  11. Essex says:

    Oh and F the economy…..F the government….and F taxes. The country is screwed accept it.

  12. DL says:

    Banks’ Fed Borrowing Rises to Highest Level Evah!

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/25844132

  13. DL says:

    “Washington Mutual Shares Jump in Germany.” The Obama effect.

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/25845114

  14. Frank says:

    Republicans loose their support.

    “Analysis: GOP stroked base in housing vote”

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080725/ap_on_go_co/republicans_housing

  15. njrebear says:

    New Jersey filings rose 140 percent. One in every 201 households in the state received notice, the 12th-highest rate in the U.S.

    When do we get to be in the top 5?

  16. BeachBum says:

    Speaking of coastline, would anyone be able to give me some of the information on the following listings from Bradley Beach and Belmar?
    MAny thanks!
    MLS 20824109
    MLS 20710361 (how much did it sell for?)
    Is there anyway to find out who owns a lot at 307 11th Avenue in Belmar?

    Love the blog!

  17. John says:

    Wall street and William so this morning the Starbucks downtown on Wall Street got shut down. WOW if you can’t sell expensive coffee on wall street you know their is a recession.

  18. BC Bob says:

    John [16],

    You’re sh*tting me! My office was on Wall and William, before I moved to JC. That S-Buck’s was always mobbed. You are exactly right, time to dig deeper.

  19. lostinny says:

    I thought the one here in SI was the only Starbucks in NYC to close.

  20. lostinny says:

    I thought the one here in SI was the only Starbucks in NYC to close.

  21. BC Bob says:

    “Oh and F the economy…..F the government….and F taxes. The country is screwed accept it.”

    Essex,

    Yes. However, we have The Boss this Sunday. Maybe he’ll sing about a song about the economy, Trapped.

  22. Stu says:

    Fitch housing report and foreclosure numbers are getting scary. If Wamu/Wachovia collapses, lookout!

    Time to clean off the apple carts, no?

  23. Frank says:

    Who said Wall St is not hiring?

    “Morgan Stanley aggressively recruiting brokers”

    http://www.reuters.com/article/bankingFinancial/idUSN2451170720080725

  24. BC Bob says:

    Frank [22],

    You are a dolt. Any firm will hire a broker with a book.

  25. John says:

    Times are changing, met my unemployed brother yesterday around 1pm and we went to the Broad Street Starbucks for a cup of coffee, there were three empty tables. Last year you had to wait for 30 minutes for a seat so I avoided it and just went to DD across the street. Mind you DD across the street is closed while they are building the coop so last year their was a 30 minute wait for seats with a DD right nearby.
    BC Bob Says:
    July 25th, 2008 at 8:28 am
    John [16],

    You’re sh*tting me! My office was on Wall and William, before I moved to JC. That S-Buck’s was always mobbed. You are exactly right, time to dig deeper.

  26. Cindy says:

    Calif. – Fresno Bee – Business Section 7/25

    “Nearing a Bottom?”

    “Fresno-Clovis home sales rise for the fifth straight month, but 47% are former foreclosures.”

    Home Sales

    Feb. 276
    March 306
    April 384
    May 472
    June 498

    “Home sales in Fresno and Clovis climbed for the fifth consecutive month in June as falling prices and ample supply enticed buyers off the sidelines.”

    “At Guarantee Real Estate, the number of transactions last month was up 43% from June of 2007, although the dollar volume climbed only 7%.”
    “The activity we are seeing in the entry-level price ranges ($200,000 – $250,000) is where the rebound starts,” said Scott Leonard, Guarantee president. “We’re seeing it. It’s very clear and very obvious, but there won’t be a dramatic rebound in valuations…..for another year to year and a half.”

  27. Clotpoll says:

    BC (24)-

    Dolt would be an upgrade for this guy.

  28. Stu says:

    5 Manhattan Starbucks to be closed. For entire list, follow the link:

    http://www.starbucks.com/aboutus/USStoreClosureInfo.pdf

  29. SG says:

    From BusinessWeek.com


    Sales of Foreclosed Homes Are Up Nationwide

    It used to be that buying a foreclosed home was considered risky for all but the most seasoned investors. Most casual buyers didn’t know how or where to find such houses, were nervous about the condition of the properties, and generally felt uncomfortable with the notion of benefiting from someone else’s misfortune. But, just as buying on credit was once anathema to many Americans, the longtime thinking about foreclosures now seems increasingly antiquated. Today, in many parts of the country, it’s difficult to find a listing that isn’t either owned by a bank or just a couple of missed payments away from foreclosure.

  30. SG says:

    From the article above.

    Yankee Shock

    The list also included some surprises. Massachusetts, where foreclosure filings ballooned this year, came in at No. 8. And the third-place surprise: Connecticut, famous for affluent suburbs like Westport and Greenwich.

    Connecticut shot up the list because its overall sales have slowed dramatically in recent months while its foreclosures surged. The data show a snapshot of the second quarter when many of the homes that might have gone into foreclosure months earlier finally sold.

  31. Stu says:

    Durable goods number was better than expected, but I find it hard to believe in light of the economic environment. PPT team in action or more likely, funny math?

  32. NJl$rd says:

    Time to relocate to west coast? Another option on the table.

    #26 Cindy Says:
    July 25th, 2008 at 8:46 am

    Calif. – Fresno Bee – Business Section 7/25

  33. Frank says:

    Despite the negative tone on this blog, Wall St. job market is still strong. Just this week I had 3 job offers, all mortgage related.
    Don’t believe the negative tone. Things are still good.

    BC, Clotpoll, Who’s the dummy now?

  34. Al says:

    Ithink the real question about S-Buck’s on wall street – what are the costs of doing buisness there – if they rent, what is rent and if they own – what is return on investment on thet property??

    On the side note:
    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25821231/

    No sign yet of a bottom in home prices

    It is really easy to be a bear now. Kudos to Grim – he probably saved my family from buying 300K fixer-upper (really a tear down) in arbor district of P-way in 2006.

    I did not want it, but wife’s family was ready to chip in with some downpayment, and job seemed to be stable at that time…

    Now similar houses in Arbor district of P-way go for right around 200K. Or below.

    Too bad I can not extract this “savings”, I’d call it a “WOULD BE NEGATIVE EQUITY LOAN!!!”

  35. Stu says:

    Frank…are you borderline schizo?

  36. Frank says:

    “Orders for Durable Goods in U.S. Unexpectedly Advance”

    Where’s the recession?

  37. Al says:

    Frank Says:
    July 25th, 2008 at 8:54 am
    Despite the negative tone on this blog, Wall St. job market is still strong. Just this week I had 3 job offers, all mortgage related.
    Don’t believe the negative tone. Things are still good.

    BC, Clotpoll, Who’s the dummy now?

    Frank you are right – everything is peachy.
    Wall street is stronger than ever, adn everybody can get a 150k+ job – just show up!!!

    Where do I go – address please.

  38. Frank says:

    #35,
    No, but I believe a few people are, like BC and Clotpoll.

  39. Stu says:

    Al,

    What you should have done is bought the property. Incorporated. Issued shares to the public. And then shorted them.

    See? Easy!

  40. Sean says:

    They are closing the Starbucks in the Palisades Center mall in Rockland county, I gather people are no longer drinking the tall latte while perusing the shlokskys.

  41. John says:

    Al try the mail room or the secretary pool.

    Al Says:
    July 25th, 2008 at 8:56 am
    Frank Says:
    July 25th, 2008 at 8:54 am
    Despite the negative tone on this blog, Wall St. job market is still strong. Just this week I had 3 job offers, all mortgage related.
    Don’t believe the negative tone. Things are still good.

    BC, Clotpoll, Who’s the dummy now?

    Frank you are right – everything is peachy.
    Wall street is stronger than ever, adn everybody can get a 150k+ job – just show up!!!

    Where do I go – address please.

  42. Cindy says:

    (32) NJL$rd

    I post the California numbers when I have them more as a portend of events to come in other parts of the nation. Since we accelerated at a greater rate, we appear to have fallen at a greater rate as well.

    Probably 40% off of the 2006 highs. No word yet about the friend who low-balled at 50% off.

    The problem in the Fresno/Clovis area is compounded by the over-building that took place. It is going to take some time to work through our inventory, meanwhile folks are buying the foreclosures.

  43. Al says:

    Cna Janitors get 150K and 75% bonus – if the floors are sufficiently clean and bathrooms smell nice??? – I would totally take the Job!!!

  44. John says:

    Palisades has the rides, Palisades has the fun so come on down.

    Palisades lost their starbucks, Palisades now sucks so come on down.

  45. All Hype says:

    Frank:

    As for the durable goods orders, break down the numbers. If you worked in the defense industry, you did good. Everywhere else, it was up a staggering 0.1%.

    0.1% in an atmosphere of 10%+ inflation equals reduced profits!

    Nice try!

  46. Al says:

    Based on those historical comparisons, and current trends income growth and rental prices, Vitner figures the housing market will hit bottom sometime between mid-2009 and mid-2010. When they finally do hit bottom, he estimates prices nationwide will have fallen on average between 22 and 29 percent.

    From the link above – 30% predicted on this blog 3 years ago looks better and better.

  47. John says:

    Al, actually the guys who run facilities without college degrees all make around that much. 225K is around average for a tattoo’d middle age guy to do that type of work.

  48. NJl$rd says:

    My wife is working in one of those mortgage back security rating agencies in water st. From what I heard they’re not hiring. Instead the plan is to cut from 700 to under 100. And the cutting has already started and on-going.

    Sure it’ll affect the Starbucks business.

  49. Al says:

    John Says:
    July 25th, 2008 at 9:05 am
    Al, actually the guys who run facilities without college degrees all make around that much. 225K is around average for a tattoo’d middle age guy to do that type of work.

    For some reason I just do not believe this…

    Running Facilities – do you mean they own their own Janitorial Company?

  50. Frank says:

    #37
    “Where do I go – address please.”

    If you just want to show up, 7Eleven by me
    would a start, the Mexicans have no problem getting jobs.
    If you are just another RE agent like Clot, good luck, if you have real skills, the job market is still strong.

  51. BC Bob says:

    “Despite the negative tone on this blog, Wall St. job market is still strong.”

    Frank,

    Like I said, a dolt. M&A is in the dumps, IPO’s are dead and structured finance is buried. However, commodities hiring is up along with distressed assets.

    Please let me know who is thinking of hiring you. My shorts will be getting shorter.

  52. Al says:

    I get it now – Frank got 3 Job Offers to work at 7Eleven!!!

  53. lostinny says:

    Hey I can push a broom! Sign me up for the 225K job. I even have the requisite tattoos!

  54. Zack says:

    Frank, go back to bed.

  55. BC Bob says:

    “I get it now – Frank got 3 Job Offers to work at 7Eleven!!!”

    Al,

    He doesn’t qualify for a job at 7 Eleven. However, he did buy the top. That qualifies him for something.

  56. John says:

    http://money.aol.com/investing/25-worst-performing-stocks-of-the-past-decade?icid=100214839x1206443214x1200311100

    Good stuff, 25 worst performing stocks in the S&P in the last ten years, btw the way AMBAC won!!!!!!!!! GO AMBAC!!!!!!!!

    No. 1: Ambac Financial
    Current Stock Quote: ABK
    Price on 6/30/98: $39.00
    Price on 6/30/08: $1.34
    10-Year Return: -97%

    In a Nutshell: All bond insurers have been hammered by the subprime mortgage mess. But Ambac Financial Group was doubly slammed by getting downgraded by rating agencies and booted out of the S&P 500 in June. Its stock is now just around $2.50 a share.
    · More on Ambac’s Stock

  57. SG says:

    Frank: Read this book,


    The Elephant and the Dragon: The Rise of India and China and What It Means for All of Us

    The real effects on White Collar Jobs is just beginning. The assessment from author is very realistic, not gloom and doom kind of. I am just half way done, but can tell you we all in US need to buckle up.

  58. NJl$rd says:

    I think Clot’s smart enough to survive this time. In fact, his distress sale business may be booming.

    #50 Frank Says:
    July 25th, 2008 at 9:07 am

    #37
    “Where do I go – address please.”

    If you just want to show up, 7Eleven by me
    would a start, the Mexicans have no problem getting jobs.
    If you are just another RE agent like Clot, good luck, if you have real skills, the job market is still strong.

  59. John says:

    Actually they also manage the physcial part of the data centers, HVAC and the lease agreeements plus change the light bulbs and be involved in DR/BCP.

    Al Says:
    July 25th, 2008 at 9:07 am
    John Says:
    July 25th, 2008 at 9:05 am
    Al, actually the guys who run facilities without college degrees all make around that much. 225K is around average for a tattoo’d middle age guy to do that type of work.

    For some reason I just do not believe this…

    Running Facilities – do you mean they own their own Janitorial Company?

  60. RentinginNJ says:

    …Just this week I had 3 job offers, all mortgage related.

    Was one hanging “stop foreclosure now” signs on every telephone poll in Newark?

  61. John says:

    Watching when animals attack last night and a tiger is up a tree in india, the dopey villagers all gather around to get it out of tree and someone has bright idea of hitting it with a stick, so tiger jumps out bites mans leg and then chases down the other villagers. The dopes even had their wives and kids out their. These guys are taking over the world or is it he chinese who wear a mask because they are scared of dust but take the mask off to eat dog they buy off a dirty street cart?

  62. BC Bob says:

    Renting [60],

    Just lost it.

  63. Al says:

    John Says:
    July 25th, 2008 at 9:14 am
    Actually they also manage the physcial part of the data centers, HVAC and the lease agreeements plus change the light bulbs and be involved in DR/BCP.

    I’d say it is quite a bit more than just being a Janitor – we have some old civil engeeneers working in my building – they are the only ones who knows all the insides of the building electric/AC/plumbing.

    They can probably hold the conpany hostage and get close to VIP salary, as no new person would be able to get up to speed on our old building.

  64. John says:

    Word/ Phrase of the Day

    Backwardation

    A theory developed in respect to the price of a futures contract and the contract’s time to expire. Backwardation says that as the contract approaches expiration, the futures contract will trade at a higher price compared to when the contract was further away from expiration. This is said to occur due to the convenience yield being higher than the prevailing risk free rate. A theory developed in respect to the price of a futures contract and the contract’s time to expire. Backwardation says that as the contract approaches expiration, the futures contract will trade at a higher price compared to when the contract was further away from expiration. This is said to occur due to the convenience yield being higher than the prevailing risk free rate.

  65. njrebear says:

    Much of the increase in June was defense-related. Defense orders rose 12%, according to Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics. Total orders, excluding defense, were up only 0.1%.

    June cpi 1.1%!

  66. SG says:

    Frank: my wife does recruiting for many WS firms, hearing the stories makes me cringe. The belt tightening this time around will eclipse anything we have seen in last 20 years.

  67. njrebear says:

    and also..

    ex-defense [durable purchase] falling at a 4.0% annualized rate in the second quarter

  68. Al says:

    regarding wearing a mask when you work with dust – smart!!!

    because you can not take the dust out from your lungs.

    If you get dirt in your stomach – it will come out, it might make you a bit sick but nothing like this:

    http://www.ccohs.ca/oshanswers/chemicals/lungs_dust.html#_1_3

  69. chicagofinance says:

    Frank Says:
    July 25th, 2008 at 8:40 am
    Who said Wall St is not hiring?
    “Morgan Stanley aggressively recruiting brokers”

    No one called me! I guess I am not enough of an overt predator?…..must be the last name….is he Italian? is he an Ay-rab?

  70. kettle1 says:

    from 2006 US census data total US housing is valued at approximately 20 trillion.

    If we see a 30% price drop in RE across the board by the time we hit bottm and level out, then 6 trillion has been erased from the market.

    40% -> 8 trillion
    50% -> 10 Trillion

    So we are about to see a destruction of the money supply that is somewhere between 1 – 2X the size of our national debt. Say hello to deflation.

    According to my understanding of Austrian economics (as lay as it may be), we can experience deflation while prices continue to rise. a contraction in the money supply does not automatically mean that all prices go down, especially in a global market with multiple currencies involved.

    Financial guru’s feel free to point out any stupid misconceptions on my part :)

  71. kettle1 says:

    Oh and that doesnt include the losses that banks and business are accumulating due to leveraging

  72. BC Bob says:

    SG [66],

    It’s humbling to hear so many that earned close/over $1 mil looking for anything. Many realize that those days are over and are simply trying to reinvent themselves. It’s downright scary. I have a ton of resumes on my desk. Never have seen anything like this.

  73. Al says:

    Bc-Bob – if you earned close to 1 ill for 3-5 years – why go back to work – you should be able to retire in cheaper state!!!

  74. Stu says:

    Send those resumes to Frank, BC. He can forward them to the HR rep at 7-11!

  75. chicagofinance says:

    Frank Says:
    July 25th, 2008 at 9:07 am
    If you just want to show up, 7Eleven by me
    would a start, the Mexicans have no problem getting jobs.

    furts: I was driving home this week and I saw a couple with their child (as an aside, they were crossing the street in front of the Hovnanian headquarters, but I digress). Anyway, the kid was in a toy ride-in car, and I realized that these guys bought the next step-up that I did at the Babies ‘R Us. I was green with envy….gotta keep up with the Smiths, Jones, and the Fernandez……someone send me a gift card :(.

  76. BC Bob says:

    Al [73],

    The problem is many lived like they were earning $2 mil a year. Hard to believe, but not much to retire on.

  77. chicagofinance says:

    Al Says:
    July 25th, 2008 at 9:28 am
    Bc-Bob – if you earned close to 1 ill for 3-5 years – why go back to work – you should be able to retire in cheaper state!!!

    Al: the problem is the don’t want to…..they will get the message in about 6-12 months that there is no job here for them….

    excuses….
    now..it’s the summer
    the fall…things are bad…
    end of the year…it’s the end of the year
    early 2009….f—
    summer 2009…..7-11

  78. Fiddy Cents on the Dollar says:

    beach bum :15

    I looked into your Bradley/Belmar MLS #’s

    # 20710361 is 401 Evergreen, bradley beach. It sold on 5/8/08 for $733K after being on the market for almost a year starting at $799K. That sale was the 3rd highest sale in Bradley over the past 12 months. The other high sales were much bigger homes, a little closer to the ocean.

    # 20824109 is 305 11th, belmar. Listed at $599K it’s only been on market for 41 days and already had a price cut from $619K. I think they missed the selling season with the higher opening price. In belmar, the house number is the number of blocks to the ocean. Each hundred series is sequentially lower in sales price as you get farther back from the water.

    307 11th in belmar is owned by Montgomery Properties INC.

    You can use this website to do searches in Monmouth (and other counties)

    http://oprs.co.monmouth.nj.us/oprs/taxboard/HeadFrame.aspx?idx=mod

  79. BC Bob says:

    “in front of the Hovnanian headquarters”

    Chi,

    I used to live about a mile from there. When they broke ground, I broke a hole in my lawn, filled it with a for sale sign.

  80. kettle1 says:

    ANother thought:

    with that level of wealth destruction, paulson, bernanke and friends will not be able to inflate their way out of the looming liabilities without going all Zimbabwean on us and issuing Billion dollar bills.

  81. Secondary Market says:

    frank,
    my grandparents on wall st are looking for a reverse mortgage. i heard you broker these loans or at least will soon be offering them at your new job.

  82. NJl$rd says:

    Newbie question: how to make money on this situation? Short or arbi?

    #65 John Says:
    July 25th, 2008 at 9:18 am

    Word/ Phrase of the Day

    Backwardation

  83. Sean says:

    SS WAMU is sinking, wonder how long the bank’s band can keep playing?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pj-1b1Yvep8

  84. BC Bob says:

    “Newbie question: how to make money on this situation? Short or arbi?”

    [82],

    Backwardation? You take delivery.

  85. kettle1 says:

    NJl$rd

    i hope you have a LARGE pool if you plan on taking delivery, or a silo

  86. HEHEHE says:

    SG,

    I read that book. It was pretty good. The only changes I’ve recently read re white collar jobs and India is that the cost savings re those tech jobs is diminishing as the Indian salaries have grown so strongly. I am surprised a lot of those lower paying jobs haven’t gone to places like the Phillipines. You have an English speaking population and they work even cheaper.

  87. BeachBum says:

    Fiddy – many thanks – this is very helpful! I looked at 401 Evergreen, liked the house but thought it very overpriced – looks like people will still pay high numbers. The one on 11th in Belmar looks like it is near an empty lot, but I understand that there are houses next door – just set weel back from the road.
    I am still surprised by the amounts people are getting in these towns. See my prior posts.
    Have a great weekend!

  88. NJl$rd says:

    It look like I’m not in a position to make money on this Backwardation yet. lol!

    #85 kettle1 Says:
    July 25th, 2008 at 9:54 am

    NJl$rd

    i hope you have a LARGE pool if you plan on taking delivery, or a silo

  89. njrebear says:

    When you buy oil through either futures market or ETF, where does your oil get stored?

  90. HEHEHE says:

    You are buying the contracts not the commodity.

  91. SG says:

    Unhappy America

    Jul 24th 2008
    From The Economist print edition

    If America can learn from its problems, instead of blaming others, it will come back stronger.

    Eight out of ten Americans think their country is heading in the wrong direction.

    Between 2002 and 2006 the incomes of 99% rose by an average of 1% a year in real terms, while those of the top 1% rose by 11% a year; three-quarters of the economic gains during Mr Bush’s presidency went to that top 1%.

    Everybody goes through bad times. Some learn from the problems they have caused themselves, and come back stronger. Some blame others, lash out and damage themselves further. America has had the wisdom to take the first course many times before. Let’s hope it does so again.

  92. Fiddy Cents on the Dollar says:

    beach bum…

    Those ocean front communities are attractive to a certain type of buyer. At times, there’s no logic to what they’ll pay for the salty air.

    I’d love to see the appraisal on the sale at 401 Evergreen, given the recent comp sales in town. Betta the value came in right at the sale price $733K…HA!

  93. SG says:

    HEHEHE: India is that the cost savings re those tech jobs is diminishing as the Indian salaries have grown so strongly.

    It’s just question of demand and supply. Too many foreign company chasing few resources in very short period of time. US recession will reduce pressure on resources, as well the tier 2 towns in India are developing infrastructure where costs are much low. Today no one is looking at Banglore, the move is to 2nd tier towns.

    IMO, India will go thru sharp recession, along with US. They are tied at the hip. Hence I am not buying doom and gloom hype, but at the same time, White Collar job threat is newer compared to Blue Collar one (with Japan doing that in 70’s). This is long term issue, nothing that will change things in next few years.

  94. HEHEHE says:

    Agreed

  95. SG says:

    The economy: the problem

    Workingman’s blues

    Americans are furious about the state of their country.

    History suggests the housing slump will last for a while. A study of post-war housing busts by the IMF found that they typically last four years and involve a loss totalling 8% of a year’s output. Inflation, meanwhile, could slow if commodity prices stabilise. But given rapid, commodity-intensive growth in emerging economies, the underlying price shift—where American consumers spend relatively more of their income on food and fuel—is here to stay.

    America’s costly but leaky health-care system aggravates several other problems. Soaring health-insurance premiums depress wages and prompt cash-strapped firms to stop covering their staff. The proportion of workers whose employers cover them fell from 65% in 2001 to 59% in 2007. And the fact that most Americans still get their health insurance through their job makes them much more worried about losing it. Unemployment may be low, but if it means your children lose their health cover, losing a job is scary.

  96. Nom Deplume says:

    [324-25, yesterday] B’hawk

    LOL!!! Rec room isn’t that big, and I doubt the wife would let lil’ nom play with the .50 cal.

    yes, this is the house. Paying way too much to be sure, but I had looked at smaller, cheaper houses that I would have to expand and would have spent this much or more, so I guess it works out.

    If we get to close, GTG will be in Sept. in Brigadoon. Bring weiners and beer!!!

  97. BeachBum says:

    95 SG: What I don’t see in the press between the overbearing “Those people who jacked up on debt and over paid for houses are all selfhish” and the “Poor you give the guy a buck” is that this was not irrationality for that 99% – most people do not have private retirement funds, and after the dot com bust many realized that they might need to hit it big to be able to retire. Given that savings were earning not even 1%, stocks had just wiped many people out, people thought they’d catch the next big wave. The propaganda certainly made them think this was ok. Remember you can sleep in your car but you can’t drive your living room.

    92 Fiddy – What killed me on Evergreen were the taxes: almost $8K per year.

  98. kettle1 says:

    B hawk, Nom,

    that photo of hestons vault is an F’in work of art!

  99. Nom Deplume says:

    [98] Kettle,

    . . . FROM MY COLD, DEAD HANDS . . .

    Now, I know guns are a lot more fun, but in deference to Grim, let’s get back to real estate, politics and the economy.

  100. chicagofinance says:

    BC Bob Says:
    July 25th, 2008 at 9:35 am
    “in front of the Hovnanian headquarters”
    Chi, I used to live about a mile from there. When they broke ground, I broke a hole in my lawn, filled it with a for sale sign.

    BC Bob: If they turn off the water fountain, we know that they can’t pay the water bill anymore and they are going the way of Kara Homes.

  101. chicagofinance says:

    NJl$rd Says:
    July 25th, 2008 at 9:41 am
    Newbie question: how to make money on this situation? Short or arbi?

    NJ: you must take a view…the pricing structure encompasses everyone’s collective opinion…there is no theoretic arb in there…not to say that there isn’t

  102. kettle1 says:

    anyone see this today? already posted?

    “John Stewart and Michael Chaney’s decision to go straight to 90 per cent provisioning on National Australia Bank’s portfolio of US residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) is a shocking event that will reverberate around the world.

    The CEO and chairman of NAB will live with the consequences of their decision as it affects their own bank, but so will every other banker on the planet.

    NAB’s exposure to the US property market through the CDOs held in its conduits is relatively small – $1.2 billion worth of structured finance assets. The money is in 10 collateralised debt obligations (CDOs) in two conduits (off balance sheet vehicles to which NAB provides “liquidity”).

    Leaving aside the dodgy nature of the vehicles, the assets themselves were all rated AAA, which technically means a one in 10,000 chance of default.

    Stewart, Chaney and the NAB risk committee have now assessed the prospect of loss at 90 per cent, that is a 9,000 in 10,000 chance of default. In other words, the securities have turned out to be far worse than junk.

    To be specific, the 10 CDOs consist of two “super senior” strips and eight AAA senior strips. The NAB brains trust has now determined, on a worst case basis, that it will recover half of the super senior CDOs and none of the AAA senior debt.

    To repeat: NAB is now expecting 100 per cent loss on $900 million worth of AAA rated debt securities.”

  103. BC Bob says:

    Chi,

    Did they realy turn off the water fountain?

  104. chicagofinance says:

    Case in point….

    1-year UST 6%
    2-year UST 5%

    arb? no….the embedded collective opinion of the market is that one year from today, the 1-year UST will be roughly 4% (also known as the “1-year forward 1-year rate”)

    So even if you took the 1-year 6% opportunity, the market is stating that one year from now you will only be able to find 4% 1-Y UST because interest rates will have dropped.

    Structurally it is the same as backwardation…..although the dynamics are completely different….

  105. chicagofinance says:

    BC Bob Says:
    July 25th, 2008 at 10:51 am
    Chi, Did they realy turn off the water fountain?

    When if….

  106. Clotpoll says:

    Vodka (102)-

    Mike Morgan had it first thing this AM.

  107. BC Bob says:

    “When if….”

    Chi,

    Over/Under??

  108. Sean says:

    Interesting blurb from the NY Times on the Housing/banker bailout bill.

    “If you manage to get a new loan, you cannot take out a home equity loan for at least five years after you get the new mortgage.”

    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/25/business/25money.html?hp

  109. Blackhatseo says:

    Added. Nice work on this one. Btw, my blog is dofollow, stop by and grab a link. Bompa

  110. reinvestor X says:

    Finally, a voice of reason.

    There is a constant drumbeat of “bad news”, but even when you look at foreclosures, there’s only a small percentage of homeowners that are encountering this. Interest rates remain at historical lows and they’re still not making anymore real estate. This thing will turn around soon. There’s too much demand for housing. Folks are just waiting on the sidelines because of all the negative news. It’s a negative news feedback loop.

    Frank Says:
    July 25th, 2008 at 8:54 am
    Despite the negative tone on this blog, Wall St. job market is still strong. Just this week I had 3 job offers, all mortgage related.
    Don’t believe the negative tone. Things are still good.

  111. John says:

    I just love saying the word backwardation. I would like as many of you as possible to use it this weekend and see how many people just nod their head and pretend to know what it means.

    Maybe throw in fungible or hypothecation, for instance I will lend you $100 dollars as the money is fungible but you must hypothecate your Ipod until you repay the $100.

    fungible
    Definition

    Interchangeable. The term is often used to apply to financial instruments which are identical in specifications. For example, options and futures contracts are highly fungible, since they are highly standardized arrangements.

    hypothecation
    Definition

    The pledging of securities or other assets as collateral to secure a loan, such as a debit balance in a margin account.

  112. Clotpoll says:

    Tard (110)-

    “There’s too much demand for housing.”

    Indeed. When I list a short sale at a below-market price, the interest is strong.

    When I send out a list of REO, my buyers respond with great interest. The worse the house, the more the interest.

    The demand for housing at tomorrow’s price? Pretty good.

    At today’s price? Not so much.

  113. Stu says:

    The Hovnanian fountain indicator is interesting. A few years back, when the Vegas RE market was booming, Ivana Trump planned to build a condo complex. She rented out this old boarded up casino building across from the Stratosphere, painted it all black and filled the marquees with the specifics on the property. Two years later (when I was in town last week) and one year after the project was axed, there are still a few bulbs twinkling on the border of the painted over marquees. Whoever is paying the electric bill is not replacing the bulbs. It’s a pretty funny sight to see in the shadow of Trump’s condo building.

  114. Pat says:

    There’s some fungible hypothecation causing backwardation in the bathroom terlet.

    Somebody call the super.

  115. BC Bob says:

    “Interest rates remain at historical lows and they’re still not making anymore real estate.”

    50.5,

    Now you’re starting to make sense. The builders are on the verge of extinction. How does one build more when their credit lines are kaput?

  116. Sean says:

    reinvestor – sure they are plenty of people waiting on the sidelines, after all there are 81 million home renters in America. If you can convince 2.2 million or so to purchase a home there goes the glut of inventory and off to the races again.

    Only one problem though, those renters don’t have the 20% deposit (never mind credit scores), perhaps we should give out 20% down payment checks in the next bailout bill coming in 2009 to reinflate the demand?

  117. Stu says:

    Tard says:

    “Folks are just waiting on the sidelines because of all the negative news.”

    Tard should have said:

    “Folks are waiting in the unemployment line because of all the negative news.”

    Here are some interesting equations for you:

    Negative savings + Tight credit = No home sales

    Negative savings + Tight credit + Decreasing wage = home foreclosures

    Negative savings + Tight credit + Decreasing wage + Rising commodity costs = recession

    Negative savings + Tight credit + Decreasing wage + Rising commodity costs + FDIC insolvency = depression

  118. John says:

    Buy Buy Buy – Real Estate only goes up, everyone knows renters are rich and all have 100K downpayments in liquid FDIC accounts and six figure jobs and they are all waiting to pounce once the markets have bottomed. I saw this on a NAR ad and an Infomorrical so it must be true. REinvestor also told me it is true, he would be on-line right now except he is in bed with Angelo from Countrywide right now.

  119. scribe says:

    Today’s “Heard on the Street” in the WSJ has interesting commentary on BofA’s markdowns of Countrywide’s assets:

    http://online.wsj.com/article_print/SB121694126714582757.html

  120. reinvestor X says:

    Are you suggesting that there will be no more builders ever? Come on now Bob. Sure, we might have hit a slippery little patch on the road here, but that does not mean that the building industry will be totally destroyed. Same applies to the banks.

    The problem with you guys is that everything is negative, negative, negative. I’ve not heard anyone suggest any solutions here, unless everyone believes that the economic collapse of the greatest nation on earth is a solution.

    BC Bob Says:
    July 25th, 2008 at 11:13 am
    “Interest rates remain at historical lows and they’re still not making anymore real estate.”

    50.5,

    Now you’re starting to make sense. The builders are on the verge of extinction. How does one build more when their credit lines are kaput?

  121. John says:

    Washington Mutual Boosts Liquidity by $10 Billion, CNBC Says

    By Dan Hart

    July 25 (Bloomberg) — Washington Mutual Inc. boosted its liquidity by $10 billion, to $50 billion, in the month since the end of the second quarter, financial news network CNBC reported.

    The biggest U.S. savings and loan sent more mortgages to the Federal Home Loan Bank and went to the discount window and set up a significant long-term repurchase funding facility, CNBC’s David Faber said, citing an unidentified company representative.

  122. jmacdaddio says:

    I read up on the housing bailout bill and I have mixed emotions about it – this bill goes against everything I believe in, but at the same time, I may benefit from it. Does anyone here have any links to specifics about the tax credit for new homeowners?

    I’ve been busy settling in to the new place. Plus there’s a little jmac on his way :-)

  123. Sean says:

    Today is the Day the U.S. Senate takes all those nasty speculators in commodities out to the woodshed,
    we should have a vote by this afternoon. Based upon the list if sponsors I would say this is going to pass.

    http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/bdquery/z?d110:S3268:

    Question for the crowd. Will US government intervention in the Commodities markets which are Global in scope
    send prices higher or lower?

  124. Pat says:

    awwwww, a little jmac.
    What do you want the legal mumbo jumbo or the low down?

  125. Frank says:

    “Negative savings + Tight credit + Decreasing wage + Rising commodity costs + FDIC insolvency = depression”

    Why don’t you move to Mexico if you think think country in such a big trouble? Do you need help with one way ticket to Mexico City?

  126. NJl$rd says:

    chi get u now. tks for the example.

    It reminds me of the waterfall model my wife developed for mrtg pool. Many variables in the higher view…

    #104 chicagofinance Says:
    July 25th, 2008 at 10:53 am

    Case in point….

    1-year UST 6%
    2-year UST 5%

    arb? no….

  127. Frank says:

    where’s the gloom and doom??

    “Sales of new homes in the U.S. dropped less than forecast last month as builders offered incentives to reduce a glut of unsold properties.

    Purchases decreased 0.6 percent to a 530,000 pace from 533,000 in May, a reading higher than previously estimated, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. A separate report showed orders for durable goods unexpectedly rose in June. “

  128. Essex says:

    20….BC….babbbbbbbbbby I don wannnnaaaa fade away…..!

  129. NJl$rd says:

    The solution is to let the mkt play it out. At the end of day people would get the true msg. Hang in there reinvestorX – i hope you could survive too and u are the major reason i’m here…

    #120 reinvestor X Says:
    July 25th, 2008 at 11:19 am

    Are you suggesting that there will be no more builders ever?

  130. Essex says:

    Damn……Roche moving all of their marketing operations to SF…….Buh Bye NJ. That’s gotta hurt.

  131. Pat says:

    “SEC. 36. FIRST-TIME HOMEBUYER CREDIT.

    “(a) Allowance of Credit.–In the case of an individual who is a
    first-time homebuyer of a principal residence in the United States
    during a taxable year, there shall be allowed as a credit against the
    tax imposed by this subtitle for such taxable year an amount equal to
    10 percent of the purchase price of the residence.
    “(b) Limitations.–
    “(1) Dollar limitation.–
    “(A) In general.–Except as otherwise provided in
    this paragraph, the credit allowed under subsection (a)
    shall not exceed $7,500.
    “(B) Married individuals filing separately.–In
    the case of a married individual filing a separate
    return, subparagraph (A) shall be applied by
    substituting `$3,750′ for `$7,500′.
    “(C) Other individuals.–If two or more
    individuals who are not married purchase a principal
    residence, the amount of the credit allowed under
    subsection (a) shall be allocated among such
    individuals in such manner as the Secretary may
    prescribe, except that the total amount of the credits
    allowed to all such individuals shall not exceed
    $7,500.
    “(2) Limitation based on modified adjusted gross income.–
    “(A) In general.–The amount allowable as a credit
    under subsection (a) (determined without regard to this
    paragraph) for the taxable year shall be reduced (but
    not below zero) by the amount which bears the same
    ratio to the amount which is so allowable as–
    “(i) the excess (if any) of–
    “(I) the taxpayer’s modified
    adjusted gross income for such taxable
    year, over
    “(II) $75,000 ($150,000 in the
    case of a joint return), bears to
    “(ii) $20,000.
    “(B) Modified adjusted gross income.–For purposes
    of subparagraph (A), the term `modified adjusted gross
    income’ means the adjusted gross income of the taxpayer
    for the taxable year increased by any amount excluded
    from gross income under section 911, 931, or 933.
    “(c) Definitions.–For purposes of this section–
    “(1) First-time homebuyer.–The term `first-time
    homebuyer’ means any individual if such individual (and if
    married, such individual’s spouse) had no present ownership
    interest in a principal residence during the 3-year period
    ending on the date of the purchase of the principal residence
    to which this section applies.
    “(2) Principal residence.–The term `principal residence’
    has the same meaning as when used in section 121.
    “(3) Purchase.–
    “(A) In general.–The term `purchase’ means any
    acquisition, but only if–
    “(i) the property is not acquired from a
    person related to the person acquiring such
    property, and
    “(ii) the basis of the property in the
    hands of the person acquiring such property is
    not determined–
    “(I) in whole or in part by
    reference to the adjusted basis of such
    property in the hands of the person
    from whom acquired, or
    “(II) under section 1014(a)
    (relating to property acquired from a
    decedent).
    “(B) Construction.–A residence which is
    constructed by the taxpayer shall be treated as
    purchased by the taxpayer on the date the taxpayer
    first occupies such residence.
    “(4) Purchase price.–The term `purchase price’ means the
    adjusted basis of the principal residence on the date such
    residence is purchased.
    “(5) Related persons.–A person shall be treated as
    related to another person if the relationship between such
    persons would result in the disallowance of losses under
    section 267 or 707(b) (but, in applying section 267(b) and (c)
    for purposes of this section, paragraph (4) of section 267(c)
    shall be treated as providing that the family of an individual
    shall include only his spouse, ancestors, and lineal
    descendants).
    “(d) Exceptions.–No credit under subsection (a) shall be allowed
    to any taxpayer for any taxable year with respect to the purchase of a
    residence if–
    “(1) a credit under section 1400C (relating to first-time
    homebuyer in the District of Columbia) is allowable to the
    taxpayer (or the taxpayer’s spouse) for such taxable year or
    any prior taxable year,
    “(2) the residence is financed by the proceeds of a
    qualified mortgage issue the interest on which is exempt from
    tax under section 103,
    “(3) the taxpayer is a nonresident alien, or
    “(4) the taxpayer disposes of such residence (or such
    residence ceases to be the principal residence of the taxpayer
    (and, if married, the taxpayer’s spouse)) before the close of
    such taxable year.
    “(e) Reporting.–If the Secretary requires information reporting
    under section 6045 by a person described in subsection (e)(2) thereof
    to verify the eligibility of taxpayers for the credit allowable by this
    section, the exception provided by section 6045(e) shall not apply.
    “(f) Recapture of Credit.–
    “(1) In general.–Except as otherwise provided in this
    subsection, if a credit under subsection (a) is allowed to a
    taxpayer, the tax imposed by this chapter shall be increased by
    6\2/3\ percent of the amount of such credit for each taxable
    year in the recapture period.
    “(2) Acceleration of recapture.–If a taxpayer disposes of
    the principal residence with respect to which a credit was
    allowed under subsection (a) (or such residence ceases to be
    the principal residence of the taxpayer (and, if married, the
    taxpayer’s spouse)) before the end of the recapture period–
    “(A) the tax imposed by this chapter for the
    taxable year of such disposition or cessation shall be
    increased by the excess of the amount of the credit
    allowed over the amounts of tax imposed by paragraph
    (1) for preceding taxable years, and
    “(B) paragraph (1) shall not apply with respect to
    such credit for such taxable year or any subsequent
    taxable year.
    “(3) Limitation based on gain.–In the case of the sale of
    the principal residence to a person who is not related to the
    taxpayer, the increase in tax determined under paragraph (2)
    shall not exceed the amount of gain (if any) on such sale.
    Solely for purposes of the preceding sentence, the adjusted
    basis of such residence shall be reduced by the amount of the
    credit allowed under subsection (a) to the extent not
    previously recaptured under paragraph (1).
    “(4) Exceptions.–
    “(A) Death of taxpayer.–Paragraphs (1) and (2)
    shall not apply to any taxable year ending after the
    date of the taxpayer’s death.
    “(B) Involuntary conversion.–Paragraph (2) shall
    not apply in the case of a residence which is
    compulsorily or involuntarily converted (within the
    meaning of section 1033(a)) if the taxpayer acquires a
    new principal residence during the 2-year period
    beginning on the date of the disposition or cessation
    referred to in paragraph (2). Paragraph (2) shall apply
    to such new principal residence during the recapture
    period in the same manner as if such new principal
    residence were the converted residence.
    “(C) Transfers between spouses or incident to
    divorce.–In the case of a transfer of a residence to
    which section 1041(a) applies–
    “(i) paragraph (2) shall not apply to such
    transfer, and
    “(ii) in the case of taxable years ending
    after such transfer, paragraphs (1) and (2)
    shall apply to the transferee in the same
    manner as if such transferee were the
    transferor (and shall not apply to the
    transferor).
    “(5) Joint returns.–In the case of a credit allowed under
    subsection (a) with respect to a joint return, half of such
    credit shall be treated as having been allowed to each
    individual filing such return for purposes of this subsection.
    “(6) Return requirement.–If the tax imposed by this
    chapter for the taxable year is increased under this
    subsection, the taxpayer shall, notwithstanding section 6012,
    be required to file a return with respect to the taxes imposed
    under this subtitle.
    “(7) Recapture period.–For purposes of this subsection,
    the term `recapture period’ means the 15 taxable years
    beginning with the second taxable year following the taxable
    year in which the purchase of the principal residence for which
    a credit is allowed under subsection (a) was made.
    “(g) Election to Treat Purchase in Prior Year.–In the case of a
    purchase of a principal residence after December 31, 2008, and before
    July 1, 2009, a taxpayer may elect to treat such purchase as made on
    December 31, 2008, for purposes of this section (other than subsection
    (c)).
    “(h) Application of Section.–This section shall only apply to a
    principal residence purchased by the taxpayer on or after April 9,
    2008, and before July 1, 2009.”.
    (b) Conforming Amendments.–
    (1) Section 26(b)(2) is amended by striking “and” at the
    end of subparagraph (U), by striking the period and inserting
    “, and” and the end of subparagraph (V), and by inserting
    after subparagraph (V) the following new subparagraph:
    “(W) section 36(f) (relating to recapture of
    homebuyer credit).”.
    (2) Section 6211(b)(4)(A) is amended by striking “34,”
    and all that follows through “6428” and inserting “34, 35,
    36, 53(e), and 6428”.
    (3) Section 1324(b)(2) of title 31, United States Code, is
    amended by inserting “36,” after “35,”.
    (4) The table of sections for subpart C of part IV of
    subchapter A of chapter 1 is amended by redesignating the item
    relating to section 36 as an item relating to section 37 and by
    inserting before such item the following new item:

    “Sec. 36. First-time homebuyer credit.”.
    (c) Effective Date.–The amendments made by this section shall
    apply to residences purchased on or after April 9, 2008, in taxable
    years ending on or after such date.

  132. John says:

    That is so cute you let your wife design your pool, did she get your slippers and pipe afterwards. The little ladies like it when you give them something to do outside the kitchen, laundry room or bedroom.

    NJl$rd Says:
    July 25th, 2008 at 11:30 am
    chi get u now. tks for the example.

    It reminds me of the waterfall model my wife developed for mrtg pool. Many variables in the higher view…

  133. Essex says:

    On the heels of yesterday’s announcement that it wants to buy Genentech, Roche, in a surprise move, announced today that it will move its Nutley, NJ-based US corporate headquarters to California. According to a report, research and development activities in oncology and metabolism at the Nutley site will be expanded. However, the company will consolidate all Nutley-based finance and information-technology operations and close manufacturing facilities on the site by 2010. It is not clear how many of Roche’s 3,240 New Jersey employees will be affected by the proposed move to South San Francisco. Suffice it to say, more than a few Roche employees are likely to lose their jobs after the company’s headquarters heads west.

    Once dubbed the”nation’s medicine chest”, New Jersey has steadily been losing pharmaceutical jobs since 1990 when 20% of all US pharmaceutical jobs were in NJ—at present 13.7% of American pharmaceutical jobs reside in NJ. It has been a long, slow burn for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology workforce in the Garden State.

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  135. Essex says:

    babbbbbbbbbby I don wannnnaaaa fade away…..!

  136. NJl$rd says:

    Price will be higher. This seems to the real monetary policy since 1999. but nobody want to admit it in the gov…

    #123 Sean Says:
    July 25th, 2008 at 11:26 am

    Today is the Day the U.S. Senate takes all those nasty speculators in commodities out to the woodshed,
    we should have a vote by this afternoon. Based upon the list if sponsors I would say this is going to pass.

    http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/bdquery/z?d110:S3268:

    Question for the crowd. Will US government intervention in the Commodities markets which are Global in scope
    send prices higher or lower?

  137. RayC says:

    jmacdaddio

    good luck with the little jmac. the second little RayC is now 2 months old. Get some sleep NOW!

    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/25/business/25money.html?hp

    This article in today’s times says the tax credit goes to first time buyers of a primary residence, who make less than $75K, $150k for couples. The max is $7500, but it is 10% of the purchase price. It has to be paid back over 15 years.

    So if I buy a half million dollar house I get a $5000 interest free loan, paying $333.33 a year for each of the next 15 years. Yeah. McMansion here I come.

  138. kettle1 says:

    JMAC,

    Congrats on a little mini mac!

  139. RayC says:

    jmacdaddio

    the article says the credit is retroactive to purchases made April 9, 2008.

  140. Clotpoll says:

    John (121)-

    The biggest U.S. savings and loan sent more mortgages to the Federal Home Loan Bank and went to the discount window and set up a significant long-term repurchase funding facility, CNBC’s David Faber said, citing an unidentified company representative.”

    Talk about backwardation in the terlet…

  141. kettle1 says:

    syb,

    have been hearing some rumblings about branchburg staying but seeing significant cuts.

  142. BC Bob says:

    “I’ve not heard anyone suggest any solutions here”

    50.5,

    What? Are you deaf?

    Keep govt out of the mix. Let the chips fall where they may. Blow out the deadbeats, put them back where they belong. Forget about offering them a hope/lifeline, or a discount on their mortgage. Offer them a few bucks for a taxi ride back to their former apt.. Willing to be generous, throw in an addition couple of bucks, they can stop by Frank’s 7 Eleven and buy a few lottery tickets. Think of all the $ taxpayers will save.

    Yes, there is pant up demand. Unfortunately, the majority are vultures.
    This mess can be cleared up in 2-3 years if the idiots allow market forces to prevail. Continued govt intervention, it may take 10-15 years for this to play out.

    I’m turning,turning,turning.

  143. Sybarite101 X says:

    Ket,

    Can’t really comment on public forum.

  144. lostinny says:

    RayC
    I think your math is off.

  145. jmacdaddio says:

    thanks for the info and the best wishes! it looks like I’m going to get some kind of credit, pro-rated thanks to my high paying stable pharma job. Thank goodness I don’t have a 225k job sweeping floors in a Wall St firm, otherwise I’d lose the credit.

    If I win naming rights, the little one’s nickname will be imac. Right now it’s emac. And I’m not getting any money from Steve Jobs.

  146. lostinny says:

    Congrats JMac!

  147. kettle1 says:

    syb

    not looking for comment, just thought i would share some of the whispers on the wind

  148. Stu says:

    Frank/Retard:

    What you will end up seeing is that all of the government bailouts and Fed tricks will do is nothing more than delay the eventual market purge and line the pockets of the wealthy. Look how well lowering the Fed interest rate has worked. Mortgage rates are now almost 1% higher than they were prior to the Fed rate decreases.

    When Volcker came in and raised the Fed rate to 17%, he accelerated the market cleansing. Did it hurt a lot of people? Absolutely. Did they all refinance as the lending rates returned to earth? Absolutely.

    This adminsistration has done every thing in its power to punish those who save and to reward those who F up! All the mean while, begging for those who don’t have the means, to spend, spend, spend.

    Do some research and see what percentage the FDIC insurance was depleted for the bailout of IndyMac. There just ain’t enough in the account. Once our treasuries are downgraded, let us see how willing the Abu Dabhi’s of the world will be to providing the liquidity to keep us afloat.

    10 trillion debt! Perhaps we should reassign our troops to Washington DC rather than Afghanistan.

  149. John says:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Maidtoorderposter.jpg

    She used to live in a subprime mansion and now she has to clean it. Soon to be released Mortgage Meltdown to Order

  150. Secondary Market says:

    “So if I buy a half million dollar house I get a $5000 interest free loan, paying $333.33 a year for each of the next 15 years. Yeah. McMansion here I come”

    but at 150k a year, unless you had a large dp you would not qualify.

  151. Sybarite101 X says:

    Ket

    Thanks for the tip. Keeping my ear to the ground…

  152. Clotpoll says:

    BC (142)-

    People bear the consequences of their actions.

    Wow, what a concept.

  153. HEHEHE says:

    “Question for the crowd. Will US government intervention in the Commodities markets which are Global in scope
    send prices higher or lower?”

    The government is trying to tell people you can’t be long commodities and you can’t short the financials. Basically they are trying to put lipstick on the financial pig and get investors to stick money back into them. How frigging dumb do they think investors are? It’s a joke.

  154. John says:

    I got a new concept it is called above prime loans. I will start a bank and give loans to only credit worthy people and charge them below market rates. Their wife and first born son or daughter will serve as collateral if they default and they will be sent to a debtors prison to bash rocks all day. I think I have a hit.

    Depending on how hot your older daughter is you may be elible for no closing costs.

  155. HEHEHE says:

    Ps. I wonder how much of the billions of dollars of that lending facility money the fed has made available that these banks are using to trade each other’s stocks? $1? $10?

  156. John says:

    NYSE is set to trade futures which will put SEC/ARP team one foot inside door to regulate commodidites from an exchange persepective and FINRA from a member persepective. CFTC better watch its turf.

  157. still_looking says:

    OT, but good stuff…

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oTugjssqOT

    On a sad note, Randy Pausch died of his pancreatic cancer today.

    sl

  158. RayC says:

    lostinny re Math off – I see, but I was only off by a LOT.

    Secondary Market re not qualifying

    I know, the last time I got pre-qualified for a loan it was 2005, and I had to talk them down. It was also one of my first hints that something was odd, because I had all sorts of financial info at the ready, and they really couldn’t be bothered looking at it.

  159. lostinny says:

    Ray
    Please don’t take that the wrong way. I’m confused about the whole thing and I’m reading everyones posts when it comes up. But I was thinking it if you get 7500 and you have 15 years to pay it back, you can stretch it to 13 years if you paid $50 a month right? Not that I’d really want to stretch it that long but I guess one could.

  160. Stu says:

    “Question for the crowd. Will US government intervention in the Commodities markets which are Global in scope
    send prices higher or lower?”

    In order for a stock to rise or fall, there must be a buyer and a seller. If the value of the company share appears to be decreasing, holders will sell to new buyers who see value potential. If the value of the company share appears to be increasing, holders will sell to new buyers who see growth potential.

    Eliminating the ability to borrow and sell shares short does not change this basic market equation in any way.

    When the market was rallying, should the government had come in and said you can’t go long financial shares?

  161. lostinny says:

    RE: gov’t incentive to buy
    If you’re married filing jointly, you can get up to $7500 grant. But what if only one spouse is on the mortgage. Do you still get the $7500 or is it $3500?

  162. JBJB says:

    [133]

    It’s not just the Pharma and Biotech companies leaving NJ, the businesses that support Pharma and Biotech are leaving even faster. CRO’s, CMO’s, as well as analytical labs, fine chemicals, etc. We still keep a sales office here but there is a strong push to move. We keep making offers to people out of state and they refuse to move here.

  163. kettle1 says:

    regarding NAB write-off

    We are now way beyond sub-prime. NAB says that it is suffering a 55 per cent loss on American housing loans – an event that has never happened in the history of a developed country in recent memory. This is an unprecedented event and means that the cost of bailing out the US financial system is now far beyond the highest estimates. A US recession is now locked in, but more alarmingly, 55 per cent loan losses point to the possibility of a depression.

    It means the cost of bailing out housing exposures to the two mortgage insurers will be so great that it will leave no room to bail out anything else and there are several US banks that are now in big trouble. NAB says that the dislocation in the residential market is separate from the corporate market, but the flow on is inevitable.

    US banks have written down $450 billion in bad housing loans. The revelation from NAB means that they will now certainly need to take provisions to $1,000 billion. But write-downs of $1,300 billion and perhaps even more are on the cards.

    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/NAB-will-shock-Wall-Street-GV4M7?OpenDocument&src=sph

  164. NJl$rd says:

    John you conveniently forget the mrtg brokers in your plan. And I did not see how I can afford feeding those hungry children if I’m in …

    #154 John Says:
    July 25th, 2008 at 12:07 pm

    I got a new concept it is called above prime loans

  165. Jamey says:

    108:

    Gonna pour a bit of cold water on the sales of “fixer-uppers,” doncha think?

  166. ben says:

    Frank, Wall St. is only functioning because of the bailout of Bear, Freddie, and Fannie.

  167. HEHEHE says:

    The Chief Commercial Appraiser at Indy Mac Discusses its Rampant Fraud, Corruption, Criminality

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/87089-the-chief-commercial-appraiser-at-indy-mac-discusses-its-rampant-fraud-corruption-criminality

    I’m shocked! Shocked I tell you!

  168. Stu says:

    So when does the spigot of bailouts run dry?

    Certainly we cannot increase our debt indefinitely. I suppose when the tax burden reaches the point where the populace can no longer afford pay it, then we’ll see the protests. Until then, bend over middle class!

  169. HEHEHE says:

    “So when does the spigot of bailouts run dry?”

    My guess is when the campaign contributions diminish.

  170. House Hunter says:

    credit card story….but read why he went bust
    http://abcnews.go.com/Business/Economy/story?id=5444545&page=1

  171. Secondary Market says:

    @162
    what if you’re a first time home buyer but your spouse owned a house before and sold over 3 years ago?

  172. ben says:

    ““So when does the spigot of bailouts run dry?”

    My guess is when the campaign contributions diminish.”

    Impossible. The contributions come from the bailout money, which come form the taxpayer or the federal reserve printing press. They run dry when the dollar’s value is zero.

  173. HEHEHE says:

    Ben

    Unfortunately you are right. I never thought it that way.

  174. kettle1 says:

    HEHE

    the bail out stops when the US credit rating gets down graded and no one shows up to the T-bill party.?.?.

  175. NJl$rd says:

    Why wasn’t it exposed earlier until now, is what really amaze me. Good article HEHEHE.

    #168 HEHEHE Says:
    July 25th, 2008 at 12:40 pm

    The Chief Commercial Appraiser at Indy Mac Discusses its Rampant Fraud, Corruption, Criminality

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/87089-the-chief-commercial-appraiser-at-indy-mac-discusses-its-rampant-fraud-corruption-criminality

    I’m shocked! Shocked I tell you!

    —————————–
    My quick overview of the conflicts, fraud, and criminality at Indy Mac —

    Fraud:

    • Underwriting loans based on appraised values well above purchase prices;

    • Fabricating rent rolls for commercial properties to be appraised;

    • Over-stating Construction work as 80% complete versus 15% in actuality;

    • Attempting to change discounted cash flow models for subdivisions in order to increase appraised value;

    Criminality:

    • Attempted intimidation of Appraisers;

    • Providing false information to appraisers;

    Conflict of interests:

    • Appraising a development where the land was being purchasing from David Loeb, IndyMac’s Chairman of the Board;

    • On one transaction, the CEO’s father and father-in-law were commercial construction inspectors for the firm; the loan officer was the CEO’s brother (a former police officer with no loan experience);

    That’s just the overview.

  176. Stu says:

    Favre a Jet?

    Say it isn’t so! I guess that’ll be all they’ll be discussing on WFAN for the next three weeks.

  177. HEHEHE says:

    He and Strahan are buds, maybe Strahan will try to get into a Jets uni too?

  178. Stu says:

    Can we persuade Jim Brown to suit up again as well?

  179. BC Bob says:

    “He and Strahan are buds, maybe Strahan will try to get into a Jets uni too?”

    He can shack up with Eli in Hoboken.

  180. HEHEHE says:

    “BC Bob Says:
    July 25th, 2008 at 1:33 pm
    “He and Strahan are buds, maybe Strahan will try to get into a Jets uni too?”

    He can shack up with Eli in Hoboken.”

    Toll bros has to move that sh*t somehow

  181. John says:

    BTW secondary market FDIC three year insured CDs from WAMU, NCC Doral are all trading at about 5%.

  182. BC Bob says:

    Those damn shorts;

    “July 25 (Bloomberg) — Bets against shares of General Motors Corp. and Ford Motor Co. climbed to the highest in at least 17 years on speculation lower vehicle sales will reduce cash flow at the biggest U.S. automakers”

    “Short interest in Detroit-based GM rose 5.9 percent to 161.9 million shares between June 30 and July 15, according to New York Stock Exchange data compiled by Bloomberg. Ford’s short interest was 330.7 million shares as of July 15, up 4.1 percent this month. In a short sale, a trader borrows stock and sells it, hoping to replace it a lower price.”

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ag36G1zLKm3A&refer=home

  183. BC Bob says:

    “Is the credit crunch starting to ease? It would be possible to come to that conclusion from a quick glance at one measure. By Standard & Poor’s count, the potential global downgrade count for this month stands at 745 — four fewer than last month’s all-time high, and the the first time in 14 months the number has decreased.”

    “But don’t get too excited. S&P said the dip is largely because a number of potential downgrades became actual downgrades, not because of an improvement in those companies’ creditworthiness.”

    “In fact, the number of potential downgrades is 124 more than in the same period a year ago, when a material erosion of the residential real estate sector and large write-downs by financial institutions sparked an upsurge of downgrade potential, S&P noted.”

    “Consumer discretionary sectors — including media and entertainment and consumer products — are poised for deterioration because of lessened credit availability and weakening demand, S&P explained.”

    http://www.cfo.com/article.cfm/11785359/c_11789441?f=home_todayinfinance

  184. RayC says:

    Westfield Comp Killer

    Address Last Sale Price
    827 COOLIDGE 11/05 $570,000

    MLS#: 2526175 Just reduced from $569 to $549

  185. RentinginNJ says:

    “So if I buy a half million dollar house I get a $5000 interest free loan, paying $333.33 a year for each of the next 15 years. Yeah. McMansion here I come”

    The credit is for the greater of 10% or $7,500, so you won’t get 10% of a $500k McMansions.

    Also, $7,500 interest free for 15 years is about $46 per month. $7,500 in a 30 yr. fixed at 6.5% is $47 per month. So, this won’t increase affordability one bit. Maybe for some it will push them over the “no PMI needed” line, but for most people, this won’t mean a thing.

    The worst part of this whole thing will be how the realtors begin to hawk the tax free loan like it’s the greatest thing since the “New Deal”. I expect to hear it brought up at every open house, “.but you really can afford this place…you noe get a $7,500 tax credit”. Every offer will be met with, “well…if you factor in the tax break, you could come up in your offer”. I’m feeling sick now.

  186. reinvestor X says:

    WHAT’S WRONG WITH THIS TAKING LONGER?? WHY DO YOU WANT A BUNCH OF PEOPLE ECONOMICALLY RUINED IN 2-3 YEARS??

    Bob, I really have to question your motivation here. You always seemed a bit more reasonable than the strident radicals like Pat, Stu, Clod, All Hypo, Not Looking, 3b, Inpatient (there’s too many to list), but you’re as strident as the rest of them. I’m shocked at you.

    BC Bob Says:
    July 25th, 2008 at 11:45 am
    “I’ve not heard anyone suggest any solutions here”

    50.5,

    What? Are you deaf?

    Keep govt out of the mix. Let the chips fall where they may. Blow out the deadbeats, put them back where they belong. Forget about offering them a hope/lifeline, or a discount on their mortgage. Offer them a few bucks for a taxi ride back to their former apt.. Willing to be generous, throw in an addition couple of bucks, they can stop by Frank’s 7 Eleven and buy a few lottery tickets. Think of all the $ taxpayers will save.

    Yes, there is pant up demand. Unfortunately, the majority are vultures.
    This mess can be cleared up in 2-3 years if the idiots allow market forces to prevail. Continued govt intervention, it may take 10-15 years for this to play out.

    I’m turning,turning,turning.

  187. reinvestorX says:

    test

  188. Ben says:

    there is no need to bailout so called “homeowners”. Most of the people bailed out currently own 0% of their household as they put no money down and never paid a dime off the principle. They are glorified renters. The ones who really want the bailout are the people that hold the debt. They are screwed because they’ll be lucky to recover 70% of it without a bailout. That’s what the bailout is really about. The government could care less about these so called “homeowners”. They are being used as pawns to bail out the banks. Of course, they have no problem with it. They’ll take handouts as they come because they are dead broke and fiscally irresponsible.

  189. reinvestor X says:

    Looks like the banks are doing what they need to do here. I had an associate with a 550 FICO today who was able to refinance at 6.4% and consolidate a lot a debt. In a way, this is in their interest to do.

    What a country!!

  190. Frank says:

    Stu the typical NJ asssss hooleeeeeee that can not argue a point without calling people names.

    If you think this country will collapse, why not move to Afghanistan today?
    You can get a head start on all the other people that may follow you.
    I on the other hand, believe that this country is great and it will come out even stronger because of this crisis.
    I hear that one way tickets to Kabul are very cheap these days.

  191. BC Bob says:

    “WHAT’S WRONG WITH THIS TAKING LONGER?? WHY DO YOU WANT A BUNCH OF PEOPLE ECONOMICALLY RUINED IN 2-3 YEARS??”

    50.5,

    Do you want this to drag out for years and turn into Japan, 1990-2006? Dead man walking? What kind of economy do you envision in this scenario? An economy that is 70% consumer spending.

    Economically ruined? No, they will just trade roofs. An established star for a bunch of prospects. The majority underwater put zero down. They grabbed themselves a free call. Well, the call has expired. Pay the piper or move on.

    Then there are those that believed that RE would continue to appreciate at 10-15% a year and subsequently pulled out equity to finance a hummer, build a movie theatre, furnish the house, etc.. They have to look in the mirror, nobody is ruining them. They did a hell of a job on their own.

  192. BC Bob says:

    “a lot a debt. What a country!!”,

    50.5 [191],

    I agree, a debt bubble.

  193. PGC says:

    Don’t know if this was posted previously. It’s a long but good article on “Friends of Angelo”. The John Edwards angle is new. That guy just can’t catch a break these days.

    http://www.portfolio.com/news-markets/national-news/portfolio/2008/07/16/Countrywide-Deals-Exposed?print=true

  194. RentinginNJ says:

    WHAT’S WRONG WITH THIS TAKING LONGER?? WHY DO YOU WANT A BUNCH OF PEOPLE ECONOMICALLY RUINED IN 2-3 YEARS??

    Taking longer won’t avoid the pain; it will just stretch it out. As long as this problem is festering in our economy, we can’t have a recovery or real progress.

    I’d rather see the toxic sludge get flushed quickly so we can begin to move past it with a healthy economy.

  195. Essex says:

    My issue is that we have let the banks have their way with the American consumer and now we are all paying for their greed.

  196. reinvestor X says:

    Amen, Amen, Amen.

    And while he’s over there, let’s see how much “freedom” he has to sit around hoping that the country collapses.

    For someone so young, he’s started off his professional life on such a negative note.

    Frank Says:
    July 25th, 2008 at 2:31 pm
    Stu the typical NJ asssss hooleeeeeee that can not argue a point without calling people names.

    If you think this country will collapse, why not move to Afghanistan today?
    You can get a head start on all the other people that may follow you.
    I on the other hand, believe that this country is great and it will come out even stronger because of this crisis.
    I hear that one way tickets to Kabul are very cheap these days.

  197. BC Bob says:

    Essex [197],

    I agree.

  198. #197 – It isn’t just the consumer. The entire economic system has been rigged to funnel money into a few large banks and keep it there.

  199. reinvestor X says:

    Look, Japan turned out just fine. We can make it through without destroying the banks and people’s lives. R/E was appreciating quickly and various people helped to set that expectation. You just don’t do that and leave people holding the bag. You have to give them time to adjust. You just can’t have a sudden collapse without absolute destruction.

    You’ve let your impatience to buy another home cloud your vision. You want everything quick rather than wait. Yeah, everything has to collapse real quick so you can buy a house on the cheap sooner. Sorry, it ain’t gonna work that way.

    BC Bob Says:
    July 25th, 2008 at 2:39 pm
    “WHAT’S WRONG WITH THIS TAKING LONGER?? WHY DO YOU WANT A BUNCH OF PEOPLE ECONOMICALLY RUINED IN 2-3 YEARS??”

    50.5,

    Do you want this to drag out for years and turn into Japan, 1990-2006? Dead man walking? What kind of economy do you envision in this scenario? An economy that is 70% consumer spending.

    Economically ruined? No, they will just trade roofs. An established star for a bunch of prospects. The majority underwater put zero down. They grabbed themselves a free call. Well, the call has expired. Pay the piper or move on.

    Then there are those that believed that RE would continue to appreciate at 10-15% a year and subsequently pulled out equity to finance a hummer, build a movie theatre, furnish the house, etc.. They have to look in the mirror, nobody is ruining them. They did a hell of a job on their own.

  200. Frank says:

    reinvestor X,
    While no country is perfect, this is the best country on the planet. If you have issues with the government just leave, find yourself a better place to live.
    Thanks for the support.

  201. BC Bob says:

    “You just can’t have a sudden collapse without absolute destruction.”

    50.5 [201],

    I am going home long grains, this weekend. If they come in limit down, Monday, who bails me out? You? Pretty sudden,eh?

    Speaking of sudden? Since 2005, we have been blowing the whistle. I guess the music was too loud, nobody could hear?

  202. BC Bob says:

    Frank [202],

    Every country that has printed themselves into oblivion was great at one time. In conjunction with this, never has a country survived/prospered on consumer spending. Back to bricks and mortar, can we compete?

  203. Rich In NNJ says:

    There you go Frank, when you can’t support your opinion, wrap yourself up in a flag instead.

  204. John says:

    Who cares about the price of homes, it is meaningless. The problem is that people who bought homes for 600K that are now worth 300K feel they have the god given right to walk away from their loans and stiff the bank. If their 600K house went to 900K they were not going to give the bank the 300K gain so whey should the bank the 300K loss. The fact the underlying collateral is impared is one thing but the real reason the banks are getting smoked is the sludge ain’t paying back the loans.

    My version of loan forgiveness would be I will take back the house and foregive the loan in exchange for the subprime sludge doing active combat duty in IRAQ.

  205. Nom Deplume says:

    [186] RayC

    I live around the corner from that house. It has a small kitchen, useless garage, and the house next door is a seller’s nightmare.

    It looks like the homeowner died last year and they will probably find his mummified remains next spring. Lawn and yard completely overgrown, paint peeling off in sheets, weeds everywhere, papers pile up periodically. Amazingly, neighbors say someone lives there and they notice activity.

    Would be a good prospect if someone wanted to lowball the sellers and dump 200k to expand out the back. Lot size will support it-no variance needed. I considered it but the hassle to endure to save the difference under what I did buy wasn’t worth it to me.

  206. reinvestor X says:

    Thank you my fellow patriot!

    Frank Says:
    July 25th, 2008 at 3:01 pm
    reinvestor X,
    While no country is perfect, this is the best country on the planet. If you have issues with the government just leave, find yourself a better place to live.
    Thanks for the support.

  207. Ben says:

    the slow unraveling of the economy idea is pure crap. They’ve been slowly unraveling it since the dot com burst. It’s been 8 years now. If we had let the recession run it’s course in 2001, we’d be ready for a new bull market in the U.S.. Instead, we borrowed trillions of dollars from other countries to float along and buy stuff we couldn’t afford. Now we will fall even farther.

  208. Rich In NNJ says:

    Ridgewood FUTURE Comp Killer!

    SOLD: 560 LAUREL RD $745,000 4/21/2005

    MLS#: 2831765
    Orig List: $719,000 5/23/2008
    Last List: $679,000 7/25/2008

  209. Nom Deplume says:

    I noticed that in the past month, smaller houses in Westfield (esp those with 1 usable FB, oil heat, no air or all three) have been languishing and there have been a lot of price drops. Seems the market for starter homes is getting hit hard. Ironically, these are dropping in Westfield as much as anywhere but the family housing hasn’t. So much for the Hobokenites trying to get into brigadoon for the school year. If they wanted, there are plenty of 7/3/1s for sale. Once you hit 4 bed, 2 2nd fl FBs, these get snapped up.

  210. Nom Deplume says:

    [207]

    BTW, it is the house next to the comp killer that is a dump, not the comp killer. The house for sale actually looks reasonably nice, just small.

  211. reinvestor X says:

    You could care less about the economy. If you did, you would have been far more supportive than you’ve been. What you care about is getting a house on the cheap like a vulture encircling carrion.

    RentinginNJ Says:
    July 25th, 2008 at 2:42 pm
    WHAT’S WRONG WITH THIS TAKING LONGER?? WHY DO YOU WANT A BUNCH OF PEOPLE ECONOMICALLY RUINED IN 2-3 YEARS??

    Taking longer won’t avoid the pain; it will just stretch it out. As long as this problem is festering in our economy, we can’t have a recovery or real progress.

    I’d rather see the toxic sludge get flushed quickly so we can begin to move past it with a healthy economy.

  212. Essex says:

    208….Yes! Finally two like minds…..the ‘take your ball and leave the playground’ mentality. Careful boys….(girls?) the brain drain is hitting NJ hard…..

  213. kettle1 says:

    John,

    The bank signed on the dotted line just like the borrower did. if the bank loses, then to bad!!! Its called business. no one is ( should be) guaranteed to make money or to not lose out on a deal. The banks jumped into this cesspool head first fully expecting the gov to bail them out. generally speaking, no one is innocent in this mess.
    If a bank was dumb enough to make these loans they deserve every bit of pain they feel.

    For someone in the finance world you seem to have an odd take on the matter. No one put a gun to the banks head and forced them to loan out the one, just like no one put a gun to the buyers head.

  214. Essex says:

    As a great patriot….I will sacrifice my credit rating and financial future to fuel the economic well being of the rich.

  215. John says:

    “A right to property is founded in our natural wants, in the means with which we are endowed to satisfy these wants, and the right to what we acquire by those means without violating the similar rights of other sensible beings.” –Thomas Jefferson to Pierre Samuel Dupont de Nemours, 1816.

  216. #213 – What you care about is getting a house on the cheap like a vulture encircling carrion.
    Isn’t this what capitalism is supposed to do?
    Reward those with foresight and punish the foolish and short-sighted?

  217. Cindy says:

    SG #91 “If America can learn from its problems, instead of blaming others, it will come back stronger.”

    BC #142 “Keep govt out of the mix. Let the chips fall where they may.”

    BC #193 “Do you want this to drag out for years and turn into Japan….?”

    Some folks need to go the chapter 7 route
    and start over. Some banks need to go under (half of the savings and loans went belly up during the Savings and Loan Crisis.)
    I’m rooting for the Roubini – esque (no Armageddon) – orderly write down process. Hopefully, there will be appropriate regulations in the future for banking. But we are going to have to get back into the business of business instead of consumerism.

    Since we do have a way of airing our dirty laundry we can always hope that the process won’t take as long as Japan. In America, you can screw up and start over – it isn’t the end of the world. In fact, it’s aok.

  218. John says:

    Where I grew up you got your kneecaps broken for not paying back a loan, tell a loan shark you story, since you have kneepads already you should be ok.

    kettle1 Says:
    July 25th, 2008 at 3:26 pm
    John,

    The bank signed on the dotted line just like the borrower did. if the bank loses, then to bad!!! Its called business. no one is ( should be) guaranteed to make money or to not lose out on a deal. The banks jumped into this cesspool head first fully expecting the gov to bail them out. generally speaking, no one is innocent in this mess.

  219. Sean says:

    History sometimes rhymes folks, there will be another Shays’ Rebellion in our lifetimes.

  220. #219 – I’d like an orderly write down as well. I just can’t think of any historical instances that support it.
    Also, how far have we come that a Roubini scenario is now considered a best-case?
    It wasn’t all that long ago that people would laugh if you even mentioned him, not here of course.

  221. #221 – Increasingly that is what I’m expecting.

  222. RentinginNJ says:

    You could care less about the economy. If you did, you would have been far more supportive than you’ve been. What you care about is getting a house on the cheap like a vulture encircling carrion.

    I care deeply about the economy. In 2004, I told anyone who would listen exactly how this housing situation was going to play out and how damaging it would be. I even wrote a politician or two. I did my best to talk people out of making the kind of stupid decisions that got us into this mess. If I had my way, right now this country’s economy would be on solid ground.

    If by “being supportive”, you mean buying an overpriced house to “take one for the team”, because you somehow see that as the patriotic thing to do, then the answer is a resounding “no”. First, it wouldn’t help. Second, that would be against the principles of a working free market.

  223. Cindy says:

    (222) toshiro_mifune – Did I forget to tell you I’m a cockeyed optimist?

  224. Cindy says:

    (222) toshiro_mifune –
    Grim – #225 in moderation because I said I was a certain sort of optimist….

    Did I forget to tell you I”m a c@ckeyed optimist.

  225. RentinginNJ says:

    What you care about is getting a house on the cheap like a vulture encircling carrion.

    I’m not even looking for a house on the cheap. I’m looking to buy a house that’s fairly priced in line with long-term and historically supported fundamentals; chiefly local income levels. Unfortunately, we aren’t there yet.

  226. kettle1 says:

    john,

    enough with the dumb analogies. A loan shark is no different then a bank, in that if i go to a loan shark we both agree to the terms whether written or spoken.

    the banks are no different. they failed to appropriately consider the risk and are now paying the price. The banks could have required significantly more restrictive concessions from potential borrowers but chose not to. Apparently all the bankers making 500K/yr need to go talk to the loan shark about risk assessment

  227. Essex says:

    Loan sharks rates are better than some banks and credit cards now.

  228. BC Bob says:

    “Apparently all the bankers making 500K/yr need to go talk to the loan shark about risk assessment”

    kettle [227],

    A brothel understood risk management techniques better than our lenders, during the bubble. Hell, it’s not even a fair comparison. It was non existent, lenders, during the bubble.

  229. kettle1 says:

    sean,

    another shays rebellion will be VERY ugly this time around. besides what do you thing all of the FEMA camps that haliburton has built are for?

  230. Sean says:

    Westfield Group hid $68 billion in Liechtenstein via UBS.

    When will we get to see Phill Graham do a perp walk?

    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/26/business/worldbusiness/26tax.html?ref=business

  231. Nom Deplume says:

    In Western Massachusetts, some folks still celebrate Shays Rebellion, and there are streets in many Hampshire County towns named after Shays.

  232. NJl$rd says:

    MLS Number: 2505783
    Split,10/4/2.1
    List Price: $680,000

    Anyone has knowledge of the history of this Brigadoon house?

  233. Nom Deplume says:

    [214] Essex,

    Ever since the HEART Act’s exit tax provisions were signed into law last June, you can’t take your ball when you leave.

  234. SG says:

    On the housing bill.

    It is classic example of flaws in Democracy. The interest of majority will be preserved at cost of minority. In this example, majority is current Homeowners (about 60% to 70%), and the minority is Renters (40% to 30%).

    The issue is as I have always pointed out is, Renters are not united or organized. They did not petition at all against bail outs. Though I am RE Bear, but I am not too happy with activism in this country. Most people cry out loud, but don’t want to do anything about it.

    I am amazed that even in state like CA, where people claim to be more liberal, you have 50% of population who can’t afford to buy house (hence are renting), did not revolt against these bailouts.

    BC Bob – This will drag on for at least 5 to 10 years, and I don’t think most buyers will wait that long.

  235. NJLifer says:

    217 – Frank…

    “…without violating the similar rights of other sensible beings.”

    That is the key part of the quote. There is nothing wrong with wanting property, it is in our territorial, animalistic DNA. However, passing that bag to the taxpayers when you can’t afford the property is a violation of MY rights!!!!

  236. John says:

    Bottom line is the 51% who don’t pay taxes beat the crap out of the 49% that does. It is mob metality. They all hate the bosses but without them there would be no jobs.

  237. RayC says:

    Nom

    I see the same thing in Westfield with the 3BD 1.5bths. I’ve been told you want a 4BD because its easier to sell. Since no one can afford more than 2 kids anymore, maybe the 3BDs will be the hot item in 10 yrs. Lower taxes! Cheaper to Heat! I need to convince myself since that is all I can currently afford. Maybe I’ll just blow out a closet and market it as a “Japanese Commuter Bedroom”.

  238. SG says:

    All Housing/Finance related issues have nothing to do with Patriotism. In fact, you can easily question Patriotism of the folks who sit in white-house and order unwanted wars. Without exception of very few, no congress member has ever served in military, and specially none of their kids do that as well. To me that is ultimate sacrifice, when you really do it for love of country and not for money.

    The reality is all news that you see today are related to only one thing – Votes. I have been much more up-close-personal with congress members and offices, and I tell you that is what make things happen. This country was formed on basis that established rule must be questioned. You are taking the line of established rule – hence are taking sides of Emperor – who has no clothes on.

    # reinvestor X Says:
    July 25th, 2008 at 3:17 pm

    Thank you my fellow patriot!

    Frank Says:
    July 25th, 2008 at 3:01 pm
    reinvestor X,
    While no country is perfect, this is the best country on the planet. If you have issues with the government just leave, find yourself a better place to live.
    Thanks for the support.

  239. Nom Deplume says:

    [233] NJ$

    You do know that this subdiv is on the periphery of town? Be a b1tch getting out of there in the morning.

    Did you look at the split on Fanwood? I didn’t but it is less money and in an equally desirable part of town.

    You can also go a bit smaller and look at 801 Harding. Very motivated seller. If you do, contact me off line thru grim or Patient. I have the scoop on it.

  240. John says:

    Warning on Hud 1: “It is a crime to knowingly make false statements to the United States on this or any other similar form. Penalties upon conviction can include a fine and imprisonment.”

    Mortgage Fraud: Failure to disclose ANYTHING to the lender!

  241. Nom Deplume says:

    [238] RayC

    If you can “live small” as I told the spouse, you can get into Westfield pretty cheap. But if you have to have the 8/4/2 or bigger, then you pay. She decided that she wanted to pay.

    We don’t have 2 kids (for now) but do have an au pair so we need at least 8 or 9 rooms.

    Personally, I wanted to go small. I grew up with 2 sibs in a 6/3/2 cape. If a kid gets her own bedroom, its a bonus. But I couldn’t convince the spouse.

  242. John says:

    The Securities and Exchange Commission is seriously considering extending its emergency order restricting short sales, and traders are livid. The extension could go up to 30 days or more, or even extend beyond the 19 financial stocks in the program. Traders say the program unnecessarily hampers the short-selling process and provides no foreseeable benefits to the market.

  243. Nom Deplume says:

    [238] Ray

    there are a couple of oil burning english colonials on the Dorians, near the H.S. that are in that price range and the less expensive one was nice, I thought. Bit small for me.

    Note my post to NJ$ at [240] – if you are interested in Harding (bit more money but more space), talk to Grim for my email. I can walk you through that one.

  244. Nom Deplume says:

    [238] Ray

    Also, one on Hyslip for 575 is an 8/4/2 that went under AR but came back out again. Seller could be motivated.

  245. HEHEHE says:

    Cindy,

    “Some folks need to go the chapter 7 route
    and start over.”

    Unfortunately the finance industry made sure five years ago that this option would nearly be impossible when they had Congress pass the last Bankruptcy Reform Act. They essentially wrote it for them much like they’ve now written this housing bailout bill.

    It make’s me chuckle to see these Wall Street type’s saying in a Congressional hearing that nobody could see this coming and then the congress-people acting all uppity.

    If they didn’t see it coming then why did they foresee a need to make it harder for people to declare bankruptcy.

  246. RayC says:

    Nom You are right, I live up there. If I didn’t drive to work it would be a pain. I power-walked to the train station in 35 minutes. Can’t do that every day, I’d arrive at work drenched.

    [233] NJ$ A similar house (w/a pool) a block away sold for $605 to a builder in January. It was in much better shape (I was in it several times) but didn’t much matter as they knocked it down. The house you are looking at is a bigger lot, but on a bend of the street (Carol), so its a little like a corner lot.

  247. Al says:

    Just WOW – all I can say. Read the article. Men is this country are so screwed.

    Jilted bride calls $150,000 jury award ‘justice’

    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25846393/

    Who else want to propose???

  248. reinvestor X says:

    EVERYTHING must be viewed through the prisim of patriotism and whether it’s good for the country. Don’t try to question the patriotism of the Bush administration. They were merely responding to 9-11. Have we had any additional attacks? No, so something is working. The war needed to be fought and if you can’t stand that, just close your eyes until it’s over and we patriots will let you know when everything is done.

    The problem with government can be summed up in two words: liberal infestation. If something is not done and done in a hurry, the very left leaning Obama will get it office. Again, here’s someone who won’t release his thesis because he can’t “find it”. Here’s someone who is running around in Germany appealing to throngs of people who can’t vote and we all know that the Germans didn’t stand with us when we asked them to. Liberals have nearly destroyed this nation and Obama will be the final straw.

    SG Says:
    July 25th, 2008 at 4:31 pm
    All Housing/Finance related issues have nothing to do with Patriotism. In fact, you can easily question Patriotism of the folks who sit in white-house and order unwanted wars. Without exception of very few, no congress member has ever served in military, and specially none of their kids do that as well. To me that is ultimate sacrifice, when you really do it for love of country and not for money.

    The reality is all news that you see today are related to only one thing – Votes. I have been much more up-close-personal with congress members and offices, and I tell you that is what make things happen. This country was formed on basis that established rule must be questioned. You are taking the line of established rule – hence are taking sides of Emperor – who has no clothes on.

  249. BC Bob says:

    John [243],

    It’s probably easier if they enact new rules. Only buying stocks or selling a present long position is allowed. No interest for margin accounts. Calls are OK, puts are now history. On the flip side, only selling of commodities or buying a previous short is allowed. Puts are OK, calls are history.

  250. reinvestor X says:

    grim 248 is in moderation. I didn’t cuss at all

  251. reinvestor X says:

    SG,

    I posted a response to you. It’s in moderation

  252. NJl$rd says:

    Thanks for the info. It would be interesting to know there are more scary place in Bragdoon than where I reside. Will consider sacrifice for good of the 2 toddlers’ sake.

    -hint: NJ$ord is a NJ-based small landlord /slumlord …Don’t you have affordable section-8 in Bragdoon too?

    #240 Nom Deplume Says:
    July 25th, 2008 at 4:31 pm

    [233] NJ$

    You do know that this subdiv is on the periphery of town? Be a b1tch getting out of there in the morning.

  253. BC Bob says:

    I was wondering how long, before we would see this;

    “July 25 (Bloomberg) — Chrysler LLC, the automaker owned by Cerberus Capital Management LP, said it will no longer offer leases to customers through its finance unit.”

    “Dealerships can still make leases obtained through independent finance companies, Co-President Jim Press said today on a conference call with reporters. The change takes effect Aug. 1.”

    “The move reflects the strain on auto-finance operations from plunging residual values, which is what lenders figure a vehicle will be worth when its lease ends. Ford Motor Co. took a $2.1 billion second-quarter charge yesterday for declining values of leased vehicles owned by Ford Motor Credit.”

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aVo5HHiSxehg&refer=home

  254. Cindy says:

    (247) HEHEHE

    “If they didn’t see it coming then why did they foresee a need to make it harder for people to declare bankruptcy.”

    Well, if bankruptcy won’t work (I didn’t claim it in 97 when I started over) they can go the consumer credit route. The idea is – you took the risk, you take the hit.

    No one is taking responsibility for the risk they took – not the banks, not the borrowers.

    (236) SG – I imagine there is no revolution here in CA because so many are underwater and looking for the bailout. The renters are seeing more spaces available AND some can afford to buy these low-priced foreclosures.

    You’d think folks in other states would be upset though – bailing out CA, NV and FL.

  255. BC Bob says:

    “Once signed into law, the budget busting legislation will hand the Administration a blank check to prop up the ailing home lenders. The ultimate cost is anybody’s guess. I believe that the price tag will be higher than just about anyone imagines. Paulson’s Bazooka will be locked and loaded with enough fire power to blow what’s left of our economy into the dustbin of history.”

    http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/schiff/2008/0725.html

  256. HEHEHE says:

    Cindy,

    I am not arguing with you. People need to be treated like adults. Just saying that it sicken’s me how Wall Street has been running this country the past 16-20 yrs.

  257. Nom Deplume says:

    [247] RayC

    The walk to the Sept GTG will be much shorter (assuming we get to closing).

  258. Cindy says:

    HEHEHE – “I am not arguing with you.” Oh I knew that. I see now that I put up the quote and forgot to make reference to it before I moved on to another idea.

    Let me start that again…

    “If they didn’t see it coming then why did they foresee a need to make it harder for people to declare bankruptcy.”

    I was thinking back then that they were trying to protect the banks as well – credit cards. Now you see ads on TV here explaining that if you have more than $10,000 in credit card debt – they will help you get it reduced.

  259. BC Bob says:

    The kettle [no pun] is starting to boil;

    “Housing woes are bringing on a bust backlash”

    “Fear, anger rising as damage spreads from falling prices, credit crisis”

    “I’m being fiscally responsible, but now I’m being adversely affected by a bunch of people who either were not responsible or for whatever reason got into that position,” Buckmaster said.

    “That’s our tax money that has to rescue this institution that is in danger because of the stupidity of people, and the gluttony of people,” Robitaille said. “That’s how I look at it.”

    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25836850

  260. Cindy says:

    (260) BC – Absolutely!!!

    “Buckmaster did what he thinks everyone in that situation should do: adopt a frugal lifestyle, pay down the debt and save for another rainy day. Now on firmer financial footing, he questions why more people caught up in the current economic woes can’t do the same.”

  261. HEHEHE says:

    BC,

    How’d the PPT let an article like that get published in the mainstream media?

    We want rosy, happy quotes, with pictures of kids playing with a dog in front of a house with a white picket fence while mom in her sun dress and dad in his golf shirt and khaki’s look on from the porch saying “thank you Congress for helping us keep our home”.

  262. Confused In NJ says:

    THe first thing I said at work when Government came out with “IRA’s & 401K’s” is they intend to “Tax Social Security”, and this is your replacement. Few believed me.

  263. grim says:

    Anyone up for an impromptu get together?

    Shannon Rose
    Clifton
    9 pm

    Let me know.

  264. lostinny says:

    Oh man a little warning!

  265. lostinny says:

    Grim btw
    I’m going to be taking a class very close to there on Wednesdays so I’d be able to meet up after class.

  266. Magneedo says:

    [208]

    ?????

    It’s that kind of attitude that is hurting this country, keeping it from reaching it’s true potential. Keep the blinders on…pretend all is well by not looking behind the curtain. You don’t know the first thing about true patriotism.

  267. sas says:

    good article out of Slate.

    “Waiting Doom
    How hospitals are killing E.R. patients”
    http://tinyurl.com/6a9vjv

    SAS

  268. Tom says:

    OK all you people that like to blame the borrower for the housing problems here’s some fodder for you. Check out the last property in the recent Bergen County Sheriff foreclosure auction results.

  269. kettle1 says:

    Taxpayers should have the satisfaction of seeing the highest paid 100 Fannie Mae employees fired with two weeks of severance pay

    http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/philg/2008/07/24/fannie-mae-bailout-taxing-americas-poorest-citizens-to-help-the-richest/

  270. House Hunter says:

    158 still looking, thanks for that link. Adds perspective to everything

  271. 3b says:

    #238 SG This will drag on for at least 5 to 10 years, and I don’t think most buyers will wait that long.

    If buyers cannot get a mtg, it does not matter how long buyers might want to wait;it will not be their decesions, much as they might want it to be.

  272. 3b says:

    #252 rediaperwipe: Bush the patriot? the solider? The clown who ran away and hid out in Alabama? Or did he?

    You are not a patriot, but rather an ignorant bumbling fool.

    Now before you tart with the toliet tissue, let me just add that at least I use it;as opposed to yourself.

  273. bairen says:

    I’ve started reading 50.5x lines using Kudlow’s voice. Noticed a heavy overlap instantly.

    rex, are you kudlow?

  274. NJl$ord says:

    I know the story so well as I’m living in one of those neighborhood. I’m sorry for the patience who died. I’m also sorry for the hospital (mine just close the door 3 months due to the financial difficulty. the closure met with a lot protection but that’s other story).

    Who can we blame if nobody want to take on the financial responsibility anymore in this country?

    #271 sas Says:
    July 25th, 2008 at 6:38 pm

    good article out of Slate.

    “Waiting Doom
    How hospitals are killing E.R. patients”
    http://tinyurl.com/6a9vjv

    SAS
    In effect, then, E.R. boarding allows hospitals to insulate themselves from the burgeoning needs of the poor. E.R.s are safety nets: By law, we who work in them see any and all patients, regardless of their ability to pay. But as more E.R. beds are devoted to boarders, the E.R. has less space for new patients, which keeps a lid on the number of un- and underinsured. So unless you are having a heart attack and can jump the line, your emergency—though it may still be serious—may wait for so long that you give up and go home.

  275. Clotpoll says:

    Tard (193)-

    That is bullshit, and you are lying. The secondary market- Fannie or FHA- will not take a loan with a midscore under 580.

    Your obvious glee over even a false tale of a literal deadbeat getting refi’d tells us more about you than all you idiotic posts put together.

    You are a whining, simpering, liberal, soci@list crybaby.

  276. jamil says:

    SG 238: “The issue is as I have always pointed out is, Renters are not united or organized. They did not petition at all against bail outs.”

    Actually, there were massive grassroot efforts and petitions to stop the bailout. Naturally, lefties like Frank in this board made their everything to ridicule and oppose the petitions them (“don’t support it..it has a republican backer!”).

    Even Bush threatened to veto it (probably won’t). In the end, it included everything (not just the Friends of Dodd goodies) so Bush didn’t got the balls to veto it.

    Half of congress should be in jail for personal earmarks/bribes etc.

  277. NJl$ord says:

    btw, every time I went to my dentist, pediatrician, family doctor, there were always a long waiting line. Last time I was 1/2 hr earlier than the appointment but still had to wait 2 hrs for my dentist. I’m lucky to be private-insured.

    Would there be some special treatment in brigadoon??

  278. jamil says:

    Hmm..

    Florida congressman lives in MD (moved 10 years ago from FL) and claims to live with his family in Florida in a house owned by his in-laws (senior citizens housing, kids not allowed to live there).

    Nice trick as he does not have to pay MD income tax. For little people, this would mean tax fraud and jail, but naturally, congressman are above the law..just wait for the 3% approval ratings.

    Wrexler Does’t Live in Florida

  279. bi says:

    frank. you are great today. very soon you will move out your hazelet cape to middletown 1-block mansion.

  280. jamil says:

    even better: Congressman Wrexler is himself under 55 years so he is not allowed to live in that retirement community house (with his in-laws) yet he claims to live there with his family for tax (and election) purposes.

    Tax fraud (and election fraud).

    Hope IRS finally nails him.

  281. rhymingrealtor says:

    On an off topic sad note. Randy Pauch died today from pancreatic cancer.

    KL

  282. rhymingrealtor says:

    Pauch=Pausch

  283. jamil says:

    bi: according to german TV estimates, there were only 20,000 people. Anyway, not going to see troops (because TV not allowed) and bashing US is probably not helping him outside drive-by media rooms and some blue states.

    Middle America seemed to be pissed off. Anyway, I can’t complain.

  284. bi says:

    289#, jamil, agreed. next, i thinnk he needs another million man march

  285. jamil says:

    this is priceless: VP hopeful “Two Americas” John Edwards’ bathroom incident at 2am led to a criminal complaint. Too bad he isn’t a republican. It would be front-page news in NYT. Even HuffingtonPost is now reporting this.

    “A Beverly Hills hotel security guard told FOXNews.com he intervened this week between a man he identified as former Sen. John Edwards and tabloid reporters who chased down the former presidential hopeful after what they’re calling a rendezvous with his mistress and love child.”
    “Guard Confirms Late-Night Hotel Encounter Between Ex-Sen. John Edwards, Tabloid Reporters

  286. 3b says:

    #280 clot: Thank You Clot. Well said.

  287. Sybarite101 X says:

    BI

    STFU
    GTFO

  288. reinvestor X says:

    I find it somewhat interesting, 3bonehead, that you are quite defensive about the unpleasant subject of toilet paper usage, even though this has not raised by anyone but you over the past few weeks. Actually, I thought the discussion around this topic had been exhausted, but you raise the specter of this unpleasant topic once again.

    Of course, the issue is not whether you use it. In your mad rush to extreme frugality, the issue is your insistence on “recycling previously used” toilet tissue and supplementing that with corn cobs, a practice that I thought had been dead for at least 100 years. This is all because you refuse to adhere to normal convention and buy toilet tissue. You figure you’re “saving money”.

    Adding to this frightful state of affairs is your insistence on restricting your diet to the cheapest of products like beano. Of course, no one wants to be down wind of you when you have your very predictable “flatulence” problems. The methane emissions you release have a kill zone likely rivaling that of the chernobyl disaster rendering areas inhabitable for years. This is all because you refuse to spend money on what are bare necessities for most of us. There’s a reason why you seem to be so fixated on diaper wipes and toilet tissue–you’re creating artificial shortages in your household.

    3b Says:
    July 25th, 2008 at 8:29 pm
    #252 rediaperwipe: Bush the patriot? the solider? The clown who ran away and hid out in Alabama? Or did he?

    You are not a patriot, but rather an ignorant bumbling fool.

    Now before you tart with the toliet tissue, let me just add that at least I use it;as opposed to yourself.

  289. reinvestor X says:

    No it’s no lie. However, there’s a qualifying factor. My friend is employed by a school district in NYS and apparently there’s a special program that they qualify for. There’s likely some sort of guarantee that would make the investor warm and cozy.

    I know, this is “not supposed to happen”, but it did and the guy was able to recast a lot of debt which help him out along with his bank.

    I think that’s great!

    Clotpoll Says:
    July 25th, 2008 at 8:58 pm
    Tard (193)-

    That is bullshit, and you are lying. The secondary market- Fannie or FHA- will not take a loan with a midscore under 580.

    Your obvious glee over even a false tale of a literal deadbeat getting refi’d tells us more about you than all you idiotic posts put together.

    You are a whining, simpering, liberal, soci@list crybaby.

  290. galgon says:

    http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN2540487120080726?pageNumber=2&virtualBrandChannel=10179

    Two more banks bite the dust.

    ” Two weeks after the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp seized IndyMac Bancorp Inc (IDMC.PK: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency said it closed First National Bank of Nevada and First Heritage Bank NA of California.

    First National had total assets of $3.4 billion and $3 billion in deposits while First Heritage had assets of $254 million and $233 million in deposits, regulators said.

    The FDIC said the cost of the transactions to its insurance reserve is estimated to be $862 million, adding that the two failed banks represent just 0.3 percent of the $13.4 trillion in total industry assets at about 8,500 FDIC-insured institutions.

    The FDIC said the 28 offices of the two banks will reopen on Monday as Mutual of Omaha Bank. Over the weekend, customers can access their money by writing checks, using automatic teller machines or debit cards.”

  291. reinvestor X says:

    Actually, the IRS doesn’t care much about where one sets up residency as far as states are concerned. MD would care, but as long as he can establish residency in Florida (which a lot of people do) he’s golden. Establishing residency is not a function of deed or community restrictions as presumably one could violate those and still establish residency under the laws that govern that. This is not an abusive situation, but good tax planning!

    jamil Says:
    July 25th, 2008 at 9:25 pm
    even better: Congressman Wrexler is himself under 55 years so he is not allowed to live in that retirement community house (with his in-laws) yet he claims to live there with his family for tax (and election) purposes.

    Tax fraud (and election fraud).

    Hope IRS finally nails him.

  292. reinvestor X says:

    Larry Kudlow is not only a great economist, but a great American! I flattered to be compared with him.

    bairen Says:
    July 25th, 2008 at 8:38 pm
    I’ve started reading 50.5x lines using Kudlow’s voice. Noticed a heavy overlap instantly.

    rex, are you kudlow?

  293. galgon says:

    Somewhere between 5 and 9 billion of the FDIC 52 billion insurance fund toast in only 2 weeks.

    No coincidence that these banks had heavy exposure to California and Nevada loans. I am sure that these will not be the last.

  294. jamil says:

    297 reinv: hmm. I need to claim FL residency as well. Po box or retirement community seem to be enough. Sure beats paying nyc taxes and the law can’t be different for little people, right?

  295. Rich In NNJ says:

    Waldwick Comp Killer!

    SOLD: 66 DONALD PL $575,000 12/22/2005

    MLS#: 2746123 (Short Sale)
    Orig List: $599,000 5/10/2007
    SOLD: $440,000 7/24/2008

  296. Rich In NNJ says:

    Cliffside Park FUTURE Comp Killer!

    SOLD: 245 MARION AVE $590,000 7/11/2006

    MLS#: 2831707
    List: $575,000 7/25/2008

  297. Rich In NNJ says:

    Okay… test…

  298. Rich In NNJ says:

    Teaneck FUTURE Comp Killer!

    SOLD: 116 FAIRVIEW AVE $301,800 9/14/2004

    MLS#: 2831810 (Subject to bank approval)
    Orig List: $450,000 5/3/2007
    Last List: $259,000 7/24/2008

  299. Rich In NNJ says:

    JB,

    FYI: I have two “Comp Killers” in moderation due to the “Duck” word in one and a “palisade” town in another.

  300. Rich In NNJ says:

    Maywood FUTURE Comp Killer!

    SOLD: 53 PARK AVE $355,000 3/7/2005

    MLS#: 2822470 (Subject to bank approval)
    Orig List: $430,000 7/28/2006
    Last List: $339,000 7/25/2008

  301. Rich In NNJ says:

    New Milford FUTURE Comp Killer!

    SOLD: 374 LEONARD DR $379,900 5/4/2005

    MLS#: 2820435 (Short sale)
    Orig List: $399,000 5/18/2008
    Last List: $369,900 7/25/2008

  302. Rich In NNJ says:

    Rutherford FUTURE Comp Killer!

    SOLD: 30 GARFIELD PL $459,000 3/17/2005

    MLS#: 2821236
    Orig List: $519,000 8/14/2007
    Last List: $419,000 7/25/2008

  303. Herring123 says:

    John – “Where I grew up you got your kneecaps broken for not paying back a loan” – didn’t you grow up in Great Neck?

  304. afe says:

    KL (287-288)-

    I listened again to his speech after hearing of his death. I realized there were two more subtle head-fakes embedded in his story: (1) when we are inspired by his life story, we are actually inspired about each of our own lives, not his and (2)because of cancer, his kids were unlucky to lose their dad but lucky enough to find out what kind of a guy he was.

    Rest in peace Randy!

  305. willwork4beer says:

    Grim,

    The report from the hinterlands…

    Hunterdon County Comp Killers:

    MLS#: 2511770

    511 Titus Road
    Lambertville City

    SLD: 05/15/07 $606,083
    OLP: 02/11/08 $612,000
    WDN: 04/21/08
    DOM: 70
    OLP: 04/21/08 $554,500
    SLD: 07/22/08 $520,000
    DOM: 64

    MLS#: 2516996

    37 Stirrup Lane
    Raritan Twp.

    SLD: 04/04/05 $480,000
    OLP: 05/12/08 $479,950
    SLD: 07/22/08 $465,000
    DOM: 9

    Hunterdon County Future Comp Killer:

    MLS#: 2556903

    274 ROUTE 579
    Alexandria Twp.

    SLD: 02/08/05 $689,900
    OLP: 07/25/08 $663,000

  306. Clotpoll says:

    beer (310)-

    Happy to report one of my agents created that comp killer @ 37 Stirrup Ln!

  307. Clotpoll says:

    Fun Friday:

    – 2 banks failed.

    – Chrysler will no longer lease cars.

  308. spam spam bacon spam says:

    Today’s “most awesome” listing description:

    “Own your own private Idaho. Rare, but hard to find…”

    “15 ac subject to lot line adjustment.”

    IOT: Not really 15 acres, more like .75 acre, but if you can get the next 7 contiguous neighbors to deed you their land, it can be 15 acres…

    courtesy of MLS 2557018

  309. willwork4beer says:

    Clotpoll,

    Still a lot of delusional people out there, though. So many recent listings are for just a few bucks more than sale price in 2004/2005. People are still in denial, RE never goes down…

  310. BC Bob says:

    JB,

    Just saw your Shannon post. Too bad, I would have been there.

    Rich,

    I may drop by that Rutherford property and bid around 320K.

  311. Victorian says:

    This is from Roubini’s blog.
    “Indeed, this week one of the most leading and well respected US experts of the banking system, Chris Whalen, wrote: “preliminary work we’ve completed on our credit conditions index puts roughly 8% of all FDIC insured institutions in the stressed category as of Q1 2008 and roughly that same number headed in that direction. That 8% of all US banks translates into over 700 institutions as of Q1 2008. At the end of March, the FDIC had 90 institutions on its troubled institution list.””

    Damn, how long before we have to bail out the FDIC.

  312. willwork4beer says:

    spam

    I saw that one and scratched my head a little…

  313. spam spam bacon spam says:

    oh wait, that listing’s even more fun with math….

    TAXES: $189
    TRTYR: 2008
    LNDASMT: $10,600
    BLDASMT: $622,400
    TOTASMT: $10,600

    Snap that baby up! Low tax East Amwell!!
    (I like how they “disregard” the building assessment, which IMHO is wrong, anyway…)

  314. willwork4beer says:

    Spam

    That’s for the farm assessed acreage. The house and the one acre it sits on: $8891.07

    Hey Spam, where are you that you’re looking at southern Hunterdon? Sometimes I start thinking its only me and Clotpoll out this way…

  315. John says:

    Well the first 12 years the Bronx, we did have a lot of shylocks and diamond district people in Great Neck too that would outsource the kneecapping.

    Herring123 Says:
    July 26th, 2008 at 1:14 am
    John – “Where I grew up you got your kneecaps broken for not paying back a loan” – didn’t you grow up in Great Neck?

  316. John says:

    http://www.mlsli.com/unidetailsredo.CFM?MLNum=2081980&typeprop=1&start=1&rpp=10

    buy 2007 waterfront LI spec house that is empty for 299K and get free closing and trip to disney

  317. Tom says:

    “3b Says:
    July 25th, 2008 at 8:24 pm
    If buyers cannot get a mtg, it does not matter how long buyers might want to wait;it will not be their decesions, much as they might want it to be.”

    Funny, when I was saying this a few days ago and you were one of the people jumping on me blaming the buyers for causing the housing problem.

    Sometimes it seems like some of you just like to argue.

  318. sas says:

    “Cuomo Sues UBS for Securities Fraud”
    http://tinyurl.com/5nfq5x

  319. sas says:

    “Founders of News Site Involved In Mortgages, Wachovia’s Ills”
    http://tinyurl.com/57kdgd

  320. reinvestor X says:

    So who exactly are we supposed to believe, our government or this character Roubini? Roubini & Co. are just trying to cause a panic. He needs to shutup and stay the hell in the classroom with his theories.

    Victorian Says:
    July 26th, 2008 at 9:24 am
    This is from Roubini’s blog.
    “Indeed, this week one of the most leading and well respected US experts of the banking system, Chris Whalen, wrote: “preliminary work we’ve completed on our credit conditions index puts roughly 8% of all FDIC insured institutions in the stressed category as of Q1 2008 and roughly that same number headed in that direction. That 8% of all US banks translates into over 700 institutions as of Q1 2008. At the end of March, the FDIC had 90 institutions on its troubled institution list.””

    Damn, how long before we have to bail out the FDIC.

  321. All Hype says:

    reinvestor X/liberalluverX:

    Just read post calling me a radical. Just to let you know I am not a radical, I just do not subscribe to your version of democracy. In my family, hard work is rewarded with financial success. There is no such thing as having your hat in hand when you lose money. My family calls that communism!

    Make your own conclusions on the type of democracy that you follow.

  322. Clotpoll says:

    Hype (327)-

    He’s no more than a troll. And a bad one, at that.

  323. Tom says:

    Two Bergen County foreclosure auctions go for 44% and 52% off the 2006 and 2005 sale prices while some sellers insist on trying to make a profit on homes bought in the same period.

    I’m still surprised no comments on the 3rd property where the foreclosure was limited to certain buyers and a max price below what the second mortgage on the home was. The town fights the foreclosure on behalf of the owner who took out the second mortgage after already facing foreclosure for the first loan. After 5 years of the town going to court they actually wind up purchasing the lien at auction.

  324. Tom says:

    The spate of proposals is in response to what advocates of the measures say is the spread of unscrupulous lending practices and rising foreclosures of inner-city homes. While similar legislation has floundered in Congress, advocates have scored victories in several places, including North Carolina, Chicago and Washington.

    Advocates say more measures are needed to protect homeowners. ”This has exploded,” said Irv Ackelsberg, a managing attorney at Community Legal Services in Philadelphia. ”You would have to be a rather distracted person not to notice that equity is being stolen all over the city. It’s a public crisis.”

    Not so surprising news, we’ve seen this a lot recently. The difference is, this quote is from a NYT article describing how state and local governments tried to fend off the subprime crisis in 2001. The banks got their lobbying groups working and some federal moves quashed what the local governments were trying to accomplish.

  325. scribe says:

    From today’s WSJ:

    Some Judges Stiffen Foreclosure Standards
    By AMIR EFRATI
    July 26, 2008; Page A3

    A cadre of state-court judges scrutinizing foreclosure actions in a string of recent rulings have discovered flaws in documents that borrowers may be able to use to keep their homes.

    The judges, including a committee from the Kings County Supreme Court in Brooklyn, N.Y., are highlighting shortcuts taken by mortgage companies in court filings, which borrowers might be able to exploit when facing foreclosure.

    The rulings show the critical role that judges are beginning to play as foreclosures mount in the most severe housing crisis since the Great Depression. The recent decisions build upon widely circulated opinions issued last fall by federal judges in Ohio who found trusts that hold the mortgages regularly begin foreclosure proceedings before they obtain the legal right to do so.

    Judges in states including New Jersey, Florida and Massachusetts have begun to dismiss many cases “without prejudice,” meaning the plaintiffs can fix the defects and resume the process, but the ruling gives the homeowners more time. Meanwhile, some bankruptcy courts, where creditors may seek permission to foreclose if the debtor isn’t keeping up with the bankruptcy plan, have issued standing orders requiring creditors to prove ownership of loans. Other state courts, including in Ohio and Pennsylvania, have begun requiring owners of loans who have filed foreclosure suits to try to negotiate settlements with borrowers to avoid foreclosure.

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121702560817186051.html?mod=hps_us_whats_news

  326. scribe says:

    Last night at 11, CBS had a news segment that picked up on that Times story on granite.

    A guy measured someone’s countertop and said it was OK.

    Then he went to the reporter’s home and it was off the scale – the equivalent of smoking 10 packs a day.

    The reporter said that she and her daughter ate breakfast at that counter every morning.

    Next up – granite panic! :)

  327. All Hype says:

    Clot:

    Thanks for the friendly reminder!

  328. galgon says:

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080726/pl_nm/fannie_freddie_dc_26

    Housing Bill Passes Senate in Rare Saturday Session. Bill now awaits GWB’s signature.
    The housing bailout continues.

  329. kettle1 says:

    if REtard gets his way and the government bsilsout everyone then why should i bother to setvice my debt? why shouldnt i get bailed out?

    hey grim,, wouldnt that be a DOS attack on the financial industry if we just all stopped servicing our debt?

    The question is facicious

  330. Sean says:

    The Senate is a rare Saturday session passed the Housing/bankers bailout Bill, they are going to interrupt Bush’s Saturday Cartoon shows to get him to sign it.

    This comic sums things up.

    http://davies.lohudblogs.com/files/2008/07/0725davies.jpg

  331. NJl$or says:

    Who can protect a home owner’s foolish fianancial decision without passing the bill to the tax payers???

  332. kettle1 says:

    beijing air qaulity 1 week before olympics
    http://medias.lemonde.fr/mmpub/edt/ill/2008/07/26/h_14_ill_1077626_pekin2.jpg

    should be interesting….

  333. kettle1 says:

    NJ 337

    what?
    Who can protect a home owner’s foolish fianancial decision without passing the bill to the tax payers???

    you cant and you shouldnt. you should have to live with your mistakes just as you live with your success.

  334. kettle1 says:

    I am really pissed at the bailout going on at all levels. If we can spare afew hundred billion (trillion?) to bailout banks and CEO’s why the H3ll cant i get a few grand myself?
    Its not about the money so much as the absolute blatent socialization of losses and privitization of gains that allows to wealthy and powerful to enriuihc themselves regardless of whether they succed or fail in business; meanwhile the average joe gets pissed on as his job get outsourced to india or laidoff due to budget cuts.

    I think we need to institue the siggestion laid out in the harvard article i linked. The top 10% of a company gets fired before anyone else does when a company gets into financial trouble. No golden parachuetts. only 2 weeks severence, and the loss of all options or other 2ndary compensation.

  335. Sean says:

    NJl$or & kettle1 – sure the homeowner signed on the dotted line but they were lied to in some instances by the appraisers who were pressured by the banks and mortgage brokers to inflate home values. Remember there was allot of illegal activity to drive the prices to unrealistic level, repeat – illegal and it was reported to the regulators they choose to do nothing do to political pressure.

    Laws were broken, and if you haven’t read this Appraiser’s petition than I will re-post it. It is not new by the way.

    http://appraiserspetition.com/

  336. kettle1 says:

    a few messy public executions of some of our more treasonous politicians should get the idea across

  337. kettle1 says:

    Sean,

    i do not disagree wiht you, but no one is innocent in this mess. If you feel the home price is inflated then dont buy. I personally soncisdered buying in late 04 given how easy the money was. But the few things i looked at were so obviously over valued that i wasnt willing to jump in. I dont care what the appraiser told me and what the neigbors sold for. The house just wasnt worth 400K to me. Maybe 300K, but no way 400K+.

    No one is innocent, except for those who absatined. But now the abstainers are getting screwed as well.

    What ever happened to all of those abistinence only programs? apparently they dont work, because peoeple just kept on buying :(

  338. NJl$rd says:

    #341 Then sue the ‘bad’ appraisers. It’s logical to let the ‘bad’ appraisers to pay for the bill since he/she is guilty? Why the hell I have to pay for it?

  339. kettle1 says:

    The US id dead, I dont know of any country that has successfully pulled back from the level of greed and corruption that we are currently seeing.
    Thats not to say that we wont contiue on as some authoritarian corporate wonderland; but the US as founded under the constition is a terminal cancer patient.

  340. kettle1 says:

    shall we start the costa rianc RE blog now?

  341. willwork4beer says:

    Ket,

    I thought the Roman way was better. :)

    Brother, can you spare a trillion?

  342. kettle1 says:

    willow,

    i have no problem with that!

  343. Sean says:

    NJl$rd – if you read the new law passed by Congress this wee, there are lots of new Federal regs to prevent the illegal collusion between the banks, mortgage brokers and appraisers and realtors.

    The Fed under Bernake also created a new reg to enforce what was already on the books since 1994, and revised in 1999 and 2001 but not ENFORCED.

    I did not say the homeowner was not at fault for their stupidity, after all all adults should live by the motto Caveat Emptor since all the other laws on the books under Common laws for implied warranty at the Federal and State levels are simply bunk if not enforced.

  344. Clotpoll says:

    Vodka (342)-

    May I suggest bringing back bear-baiting?

    Besides, a few bear-baiting tournaments could fill some empty dates @ the Prudential Center.

  345. dottie r says:

    Kettle 1, thank you for bringing the NAB situation to our attention: a story almost as big as the demise of Fannie & Freddie, but didn’t get too much weight in our press.

    What the Australian bank (NAB) decided to do Friday morning will really rock our mortgage market and probably make the system go Zimbabwean.

    Maybe our press will wake up to this eventually.

  346. NJl$rd says:

    Regarding the new housing bill, other than all the excuses, wasn’t it a convenience favor by your politicians to tax me for your mistake?

    Understanding The Housing Bill
    http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=92826335&ft=1&f=1003

    — Give the Treasury Department the power to extend Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac an unspecified line of credit and to buy their stock, if necessary, to prop up the mortgage companies. The two companies back or own $5 trillion in U.S. mortgages — nearly half the nation’s total.

    — Allow qualified homeowners facing foreclosure to apply for lower fixed-rate, 30-year mortgages backed by loan guarantees from the Federal Housing Administration. The original lenders would have to agree to take a loss on their loans.

    #350 Sean Says:
    July 26th, 2008 at 1:37 pm

    NJl$rd – if you read the new law passed by Congress this wee, there are lots of new Federal regs to prevent the illegal collusion between the banks, mortgage brokers and appraisers and realtors.

  347. Tom says:

    And I’ve already posted my rant on what I think of about the housing market rescue bill. Too many links and too long to be able to post here.

    Basically, this isn’t only a bail out of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Both had purchased billions of dollars of subprime loans from private banks last year. This all could have been prevented around 7 or 8 years ago but instead the federal government kept allowing this to go on.

  348. sas says:

    anyone have the link for who voted for and against the Housing bill in the Senate?

    SAS

  349. NJl$rd says:

    #355 Sas

    The Senate Banking Committee voted 19 to 2 to approve the bill, with every Republican except Jim Bunning (Ky.) and Mike Enzi (Wyo.) voting with the Democratic majority.

  350. sas says:

    NJl$rd

    you have the link?
    I’d like to read the bill and see all players involved.

    thx

    SAS

  351. Tom says:

    “sas Says:
    anyone have the link for who voted for and against the Housing bill in the Senate?”

    I just added two links that show how Senators voted today and the Representatives voted on weds regarding the house bill

  352. galgon says:

    http://www.foxbusiness.com/story/markets/industries/media/taxpayers-need-strategie-major-tax-provisions-new-housing-assistance/

    — Good news for homeowners: your standard deduction grows by up to $500 ($1,000 for joint return filers). Scharin suggests that you keep in mind, “The additional standard deduction for state and local property taxes won’t help those with big mortgage interest payments and high property taxes because they will be itemizing in any event. On the other hand, it should be useful to those with small mortgages and low state and local tax payments. Among the winners are retirees who have paid off their mortgages and already get a larger standard deduction for being at least age 65 (making them likely to claim the standard deduction).”

    The losers include homeowners in High Tax New Jersey and renters everywhere.

    — First-time homebuyers get a tax credit of up to $7,500. Comments Scharin of Thomson Reuters: “This provision contains some catches: The credit is more of an interest-free loan than a complete giveaway; in general, taxpayers will have to pay back the credit they claim over 15 years. Also income limitations restrict eligibility.”

    Can we possibly make the tax code any more convoluted. The money people “save” from this provision will likely go directly to their accountants each year.

  353. kettle1 says:

    dottie r

    No problem, glad to help :)

    From what i have been reading NAB may be the first bank to apply a “REAL” value to their assets and could be the beginiining of an avalanche of other banks to do the same. Apparently they may have used ABX and CMBX to vakue their assets, niethr of which i understand. any finance guys care to chime in on this?

    oh and how does the US banking system/ Government not collapse if things dont change?
    look at the chart
    http://bp0.blogger.com/_9ZzZquaXrR8/SItKzpOlgiI/AAAAAAAABWw/-XmM_XvITbs/s1600-h/Bankrupt.gif

  354. kettle1 says:

    from bloomberg

    Standard & Poor’s may downgrade the subordinated bonds of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, surprising investors who had anticipated the securities would be supported by any Treasury rescue plan.

    The potential cut would affect $19.2 billion of AA- rated subordinated debt at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The cost to protect the bonds from default rose for the first time in three days. S&P said it may also downgrade $26 billion of preferred stock, pushing down the securities in New York trading.

  355. kettle1 says:

    so the FDIC has/had 50 billion to cover failures…

    from bankimplodometer, these are banks on the HOT list and thwhat they hold.

    National City Corporation – $82 billion insured, $9 billion in writedowns.
    Fifth Third Bancorp – $66 billion insured, $2 billion in writedowns.
    Suntrust Banks – $114 billion insured, $1.5 billion in writedowns.
    Wachovia – $392 billion insured, $30 billion in writedowns.
    Bank of America – $598 billion insured, $30 billion in writedowns.

    SO there is about 1 trillion in risk on failing and the FDCI has 50 billion to cover it? while a portion of the 1 trillion would not qualify for FDIC coverage, the majority will.
    SO when can we expect the next congressional hearing about another tax payer funded blank check?

  356. kettle1 says:

    Tom:

    NOM NOM NOM!!!!!!

  357. Zhang Fei says:

    I believe banks require private mortgage insurance (PMI) for mortgages where the loan to value exceeds 80%. The existence of PMI is why banks continue to make loans where the downpayment is a mere 5% of the home’s current market value. The idea is that mortgage insurers providing the PMI will compensate them for the 15% difference if the home loan goes into foreclosure. The problem for the continued viability of loans with sub-20% downpayments is that some of these insurers are in the process of going bankrupt. They simply cannot afford to cover their underwriting losses on the basis of the skimpy premiums that they charged. From news reports, a lot of the purchases of defaulted homes is being done on the basis of 5% (or less) downpayments. What happens when PMI goes away, or becomes prohibitively expensive? Housing sales will crater even further.

  358. sas says:

    look like these guys are in favor of the bailouts:

    New Jersey
    Aye NJ Lautenberg, Frank [D]
    Aye NJ Menendez, Robert [D]

  359. sas says:

    as for the House”

    New Jersey
    Aye NJ-1 Andrews, Robert [D]
    Nay NJ-2 LoBiondo, Frank [R]
    Nay NJ-3 Saxton, H. [R]
    Aye NJ-4 Smith, Christopher [R]
    Nay NJ-5 Garrett, E. [R]
    Aye NJ-6 Pallone, Frank [D]
    Aye NJ-7 Ferguson, Michael [R]
    Aye NJ-8 Pascrell, William [D]
    Aye NJ-9 Rothman, Steven [D]
    Aye NJ-10 Payne, Donald [D]
    Nay NJ-11 Frelinghuysen, Rodney [R]
    Aye NJ-12 Holt, Rush [D]
    Aye NJ-13 Sires, Albio [D]

  360. Tom says:

    guess too much formatting and I’m in moderation?

    here are the nj votes from the house.

    Aye NJ-1 Andrews, Robert [D]
    Nay NJ-2 LoBiondo, Frank [R]
    Nay NJ-3 Saxton, H. [R]
    Aye NJ-4 Smith, Christopher [R]
    Nay NJ-5 Garrett, E. [R]
    Aye NJ-6 Pallone, Frank [D]
    Aye NJ-7 Ferguson, Michael [R]
    Aye NJ-8 Pascrell, William [D]
    Aye NJ-9 Rothman, Steven [D]
    Aye NJ-10 Payne, Donald [D]
    Nay NJ-11 Frelinghuysen, Rodney [R]
    Aye NJ-12 Holt, Rush [D]
    Aye NJ-13 Sires, Albio [D]

  361. Tom says:

    uh oh. Did I break the site? I tried to post two comments and they’re not showing up not even in moderation and I’m not seeing any new comments either from others :(

  362. Mikeinwaiting says:

    testing Tom

  363. Tom says:

    Thanks Mike. Guess I didn’t break it :) guess it just got dead around here

  364. Rich In NNJ says:

    Dumont FUTURE Comp Killer!

    SOLD: 80 MAPLE ST $392,500 6/29/2007

    MLS#: 2828719
    Orig List:$399,900 7/10/2008
    Last List: $375,000 7/26/2008

  365. Rich In NNJ says:

    Westwood FUTURE Comp Killer!

    SOLD: 36 LEWIS PL $540,000 7/1/2005

    MLS#: 2816842
    Orig List: $499,000 4/24/2008
    last List: $488,000 7/26/2008

  366. kettle1 says:

    for more fun, consider that LTV during the depression was on average about 10%. what are we running at today 90+%

  367. spam spam bacon spam says:

    willworkforbeer:

    I’m a HC local… Spruce Run area…

  368. NJl$rd says:

    Anyone have the realistic calculation of amount of the bill? Is $300b the cap for the bill or just the appetizer?

    http://money.cnn.com/2008/07/26/real_estate/housing_rescue_guide/index.htm?postversion=2008072611

    How housing rescue bill can help you
    The legislation – likely to be enacted soon – devotes $300 billion to helping troubled homeowners avoid foreclosure. See if you qualify.

    NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — The Senate on Saturday passed a $300 billion housing rescue bill aimed at helping troubled homeowners avoid foreclosure and supporting mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

  369. BC Bob says:

    Liars, fraudsters, incompetent, cheerleaders, carnival barkers, fabricators, charlatans, hustlers.

    “Mr. Paulson said in a speech March 13th, 2007: “The fallout in subprime mortgages is going to be painful to some lenders, but it is largely contained.”

    “Chairman Bernanke before the Congressional Joint Economic Committee on March 28th 2007, just a few days later: mortgages to prime borrowers and fixed-rate mortgages to all classes of borrowers continue to perform well, with low rates of delinquency.”

    “Chairman Bernanke at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s 43rd Annual Conference on Bank Structure and Competition, May 17th, 2007: “We do not expect significant spillovers from the subprime market to the rest of the economy or to the financial system.”

    “Chairman Ben S. Bernanke speech to the 2007 International Monetary Conference, Cape Town, South Africa, June 5th: “The troubles in the subprime sector seem unlikely to seriously spill over to the broader economy or the financial system.”

    “Chairman Bernanke to Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate, April 3rd, 2008: “Clearly, the U.S. economy is going through a very difficult period. But among the great strengths of our economy is its ability to adapt and to respond to diverse challenges. Much necessary economic and financial adjustment has already taken place, and monetary and fiscal policies are in train that should support a return to growth in the second half of this year and next year.”

    Chairman Bernanke to Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate, April 3rd, 2008: “Clearly, the U.S. economy is going through a very difficult period. But among the great strengths of our economy is its ability to adapt and to respond to diverse challenges. Much necessary economic and financial adjustment has already taken place, and monetary and fiscal policies are in train that should support a return to growth in the second half of this year and next year.”

    Chairman Bernanke to Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs.

    “With long-term inflation expectations contained, futures prices suggesting that investors expect energy and other commodity prices to flatten out, and pressures in both labor and product markets likely to ease modestly, core inflation should edge a bit lower, on net, over the remainder of this year and next year”. – Ben Bernanke, 7/18/07

    “The Committee expects inflation to moderate in coming quarters”- Fed 1/22/08 and 1/30/08

    “The Committee expects inflation to moderate later this year and next year.” – Fed 6/25/08

    http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/rebels/2008/0725.html

  370. Tom says:

    “NJl$rd Says:
    Anyone have the realistic calculation of amount of the bill? Is $300b the cap for the bill or just the appetizer?”

    Here’s the Congressional Budget Office’s Cost Estimate for that legislation. Here are older ones

    What I don’t understand is why they are creating a regulartory agency for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac? FNMA started out as a government agency and Freddie Mac was created by Congress so Fannie Mae wouldn’t be a monopoly. Just spank them both and turn them into a federal agency again. They working with government money and now are overseen by government agencies. Just reduce the bureaucracy and bring them back in house.

  371. John says:

    Will this be the NJ RE Bull Market Blog come Monday?

  372. Paunederland says:

    does anyone has the latest input from the Otteau report? I was told that based on one date point that wasn’t as bad as expected, he thinks that the bottum is here.

    Does he not sell reports in case he reports what his model is really telling him? Foreclosures are going up, prices are going down, interest rates are going up, employment is going down.

    The inventory is going down because finally, people that don’t really need to sell are taking their properties off the market.
    We are just left with a high number of desperate foreclosures.

    My brakes are failing, I am running out of gas, I am going downhill, I have no insurance and oh, wait…the engine warning light is now off, HOORRAY, I AM SAVED (you whish. The battery just failed too…)
    There is no way we are at the bottum. Just wait for the supersonic boom. It will be VERY obvious.

  373. Tom says:

    “does anyone has the latest input from the Otteau report? I was told that based on one date point that wasn’t as bad as expected, he thinks that the bottum is here.”

    The Otteau Group also passed along the erroneous NAR data that grim pointed out. The reports basically said they thought there was a problem but didn’t care.

    Does anyone still care what they think?

  374. Clotpoll says:

    Paun (379)-

    Bend over and kiss your a$$ goodbye. We are totally screwed…and screwed by our own hand.

    The next act is going to be an ever-increasing cascade of all kinds of loan defaults, bank failures, natural catastrophes (hurricane season!) and gubmint bumbling. The crescendo will come in November, as we elect a new chief executive (Obama), who will deliver the kill shot to both the economy and its few remaining productive elements.

    Got overalls?

    Got Woody Guthrie tunes?

    Got a trash barrel (for bonfires)?

    It’s all over now. Only thing left to see is how far we fall.

  375. Clotpoll says:

    grim-

    Screed at #381 moderated!

  376. Frank says:

    Went to visit my old place in Hoboken and apartments are selling quicker than in 2004 and for 60% more. Places in my old building and around are selling like hot cakes. It took me 6 months to sell my place in 2004, now they are selling in 3. The RE market in Hoboken is still HOT!!.

  377. Frank says:

    Recession anyone??

    Record Price Reported on Manhattan Co-op

    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/27/realestate/27deal2.html?ref=realestate

  378. Tom says:

    “Recession anyone??

    Record Price Reported on Manhattan Co-op “

    Yep, now that all those few subprime bowers messed up the market, it’s time for all the millions of son’s of billionaires that have been given CEO posts to start bringing us out of this housing slump. Too bad he didn’t pick up his father-in-law’s park avenue apt a few years ago. It went for only $37 million. Would probably be worth $500 Gagillion in 2006 prices.

    We are saved! We officially hit bottom!

  379. NJl$rd says:

    Frank, I did not see the foreclosure trend bottom out yet. The super riches are immune from the recession that doesn’t mean anything for average joe.

    #1

    New Jersey filings rose 140 percent. One in every 201 households in the state received notice, the 12th-highest rate in the U.S.

  380. NJl$rd says:

    I’m still keep my fingers cross to pick up a nice brigadoon cottage on cheap by next summer :)

  381. galgon says:

    Frank (382):

    Do you have MLS # for these apartments in Hoboken that are selling at 60% over 2004 prices?

    No? I guess that would be asking too much.

    How about addresses? I am sure you know the address of your old place. We dont need the exact apartment number of your old place. Just the street number or the street number of any of these buildings you speak of.

  382. willwork4beer says:

    spam spam bacon spam 375

    Glad to find another Hunterdon local. I’m on the southern end, just a short drive from the private Idaho.

    I’m going out this morning to see three properties with Mrs. Beer. (Not the P.I.) Don’t worry, I haven’t been drinking the KoolAid, they are all distressed places that I plan to lowball if we like them. We’ll see if anyone blinks… :)

  383. RPatrick says:

    Understanding the bailout

    Is there a item by item listout especially with the tax benefits?

    I think me and the “little apartment that could”/”Itty bitty co-op” benefit from the fact that I don’s get to itemize. ( Every year I save half a tree’s worth of receipts ect )

  384. SG says:

    NY RE Prices, Here is the preview.

    City and State Brace for Drop in Wall Street Pay

    Government officials in New York are preparing for what could be the biggest single-year decline in pay on Wall Street in history and with it a vexing shortfall in city and state revenues.

    A review of the latest statements from the largest financial companies based in the city shows that they intend to hand out about $18 billion less in pay and benefits in 2008 than in 2007.

    It would mean about $10 billion less in taxable income and several billion dollars less to be spent on apartments, furniture, cars, clothing and services.

  385. SG says:


    2008 Salary Value Index – Complete List of Cities

    No city in northeast makes to top 25 list.

    Buffalo, NY – 42
    Newark, NJ – 44
    New York City – 69 (The last)

  386. willwork4beer says:

    And another…

    Hunterdon County FUTURE Comp Killer:

    MLS#: 2557956

    3 Grandin Drive
    Raritan Twp.

    SLD: 12/16/05 $409,900
    OLP: 07/26/08 $395,000

  387. SG says:

    Georgia ‘Extreme Makeover’ House In Foreclosure in 3.5 Years

    Extreme_Makeover_ForeclosureTalk about screwing up a good thing.

    Extreme Makeover and Beezer Homes builds you a luxury home, gives you 100,000 dollars, paid off your mortgage, and you lose the home to foreclosure in 3 and a half years.

    How the hell does that happen?

    Well, it does when you do good things for people with no sense at all. To be honest these people disgust me. Hundreds donated their time and energy to get them out of a bad situation. The goodness of their neighbors was spit upon today and whatever consequences comes to this family they deserve.

  388. SG says:

    Fannie Mae Has 5 Billion Worth Of REO Property

    You wonder why it is hard to resell homes today? Just take a look at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Fannie Mae has 5 billion worth of unsold property on it’s books. That is not properties in foreclosure, that is 5 billion dollars worth of property they have already taken over and have to pay upkeep, taxes, and maintenance of the property.

    Yet at the end of the process they are typically selling for 74 percent of the unpaid mortgage. So any downpayment on the home is lost and 26 percent of the mortgage amount has also disappeared. This is a crushing blow to others trying to compete with these foreclosures.

    And to make it worse, selling them still takes nearly half a year. This helps explain why the real estate market is in such a tough position.

  389. Clotpoll says:

    A little test for bi:

    A lack of short interest in a stock sector is:

    a) bullish
    b) bearish
    c) a potential disaster, waiting to happen
    d) Dred Scott

    NEW YORK (Reuters) – Short positions have dropped further in shares of the 19 financial firms targeted by U.S. regulators’ emergency short-selling rule this week, a market data company said on Friday.

    Short sales, or bets a stock will fall, are now down 98 percent in shares of mortgage finance companies Fannie Mae (FNM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and Freddie Mac (FRE.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and have fallen 85 percent for all 19 financial companies, S3 Matching Technologies said, citing data from its clients.

    S3’s clients are primarily individual investors. Data on short sales by hedge funds, which have been active in this type of trading, is closely guarded by the firms.

    S3 said it compared short sale data from July 14, prior to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission emergency rule, to the close of trade on Thursday.

    The SEC’s rule is part of an effort to clamp down on market manipulation that some blame for the sharp declines in financial stocks and the demise of investment bank Bear Stearns in March.

  390. willwork4beer says:

    SG 394

    I loved one of the comments that went with that story.

    “…this is just unbelieveable and disgusting — loved the woman’s comment that she won’t be paying her mortgage payment because she’s being ‘harrassed’ – Harrassed??? Ridden out of town on a rail is what she should be. I rarely think there should be a return to debtor’s prison, because hard times can fall upon anyone but, in this case, I’d make an exception.”

  391. BC Bob says:

    “Recession anyone??”

    Frank,

    Funny you should ask. Well, the east end of the Hampton’s is getting squeezed. The town faces a $12M defecit, had approx $900 in its bank account and struggled to meet payroll. One culprit, mortgage tax revenue down almost 42%.

    Barron’s, page 5.

    Next question.

  392. willwork4beer says:

    How low can it go…?

    87 Union Road Kingwood Twp.

    OLP: 07/20/05 $1,475,000
    Last List price: $1,275,000
    Withdrawn
    DOM 60

    OLP: 10/01/05 $1,175,000
    Last List price: $899,000
    Expired
    DOM 182

    OLP: 10/05/06 $799,000
    Last List price: $799,000
    Expired
    DOM 207

    OLP: 05/02/07 $795,000
    Last List price: $795,000
    Expired
    DOM 59

    OLP: 08/03/07 $775,000
    Last List price: $699,000
    Expired
    DOM 181

    OLP: 04/09/08 $675,000
    Last List price: $665,000
    Expired
    DOM 82

    OLP: 07/26/08 $659,000
    Active
    DOM 1

    Still way over 2005 purchase price of $585,000, but now under 2004 asking price of $659,900.

  393. willwork4beer says:

    Yes, they tried to flip it for an almost 900K profit after just four months (3/05-7/05).

  394. jack says:

    i guess flipping is done for a while?

  395. chicagofinance says:

    SG Says:
    July 27th, 2008 at 6:32 am
    NY RE Prices, Here is the preview.
    City and State Brace for Drop in Wall Street Pay

    Where the f— is pret to answer for this?

  396. Cindy says:

    (BC Bob #377 – As always, excellent. If only everyone would start by telling the truth.

    I loved one of the protester’s signs…
    “Banks:
    Take your losses, not my taxes”

    Question anyone:

    “Can I march into my insurance agent and ask to have my homeowner’s premium reevaluated due to the drop in home value?

  397. Clotpoll says:

    beer (401)-

    Owner of that property is the son of the listing agent.

  398. Clotpoll says:

    Cindy (404)-

    “If only everyone would start by telling the truth.”

    If the gubmint did that, 3/4 of us would be storming the ramparts.

    The other 1/4 would be counting the days until American Idol’s new season and chomping on pork rinds.

  399. Clotpoll says:

    (405)-

    Wonder if that listing agent talked the son into trying the flip back in ’05?

  400. spam spam bacon spam says:

    willworkforbeer:

    Have patience. Sellers have not dropped prices to NEARLY what they will…right now, you’ve got the “serial movers” (move every 2-5 years) being obstinate and letting prices fall SLIGHTLY. What you HAVEN’T seen yet is grammie and gramps selling off the POS they’ve lived in for 40+ years and only paid 9K for back in ’64…they’ll sell at 100K and be happy. When this crap starts creeping in to the listings, prices will really tumble.

    The ONLY reason this can happen is because the mortgage lenders tightened up severely… and right now, the “access to money problem” has STILL not “sunk in” to the selling market as a whole. Many, many sellers are thinking “yeah, but that doesn’t affect *ME*…prospective buyers for *MY* house are well-healed and can afford to pay cash/have a huge deposit…”
    (when we all know those buyers are rare)

  401. Cindy says:

    Clot – Just asking the insurance question because I’m not sure how that works. Replacement cost may not have gone down for the building in case of fire but hasn’t the land itself lost value – therefore – lower premium?

  402. Sean says:

    More tidbits from the bill, to curb abuses.

    Reposted from another Blog.

    Section Title IV.

    From Title IV Hope for Homeowners
    Section 257
    (e) Eligibility
    (1) (B):
    Mortgage debt to income > 31% [Suspect this covers most borrowers]
    (2) (B)
    Refinance amount limited to 90% of current appraised value [Ouch, but cheating here will be very tempting]
    (3)
    All fees and penalties waived and forgiven [Ouch]
    (4)
    Second liens extinguished, but shared appreciate is provided for (defined later) [Ouch]
    (7)
    No new 2nd liens for 5 yrs [Punch bowl is officially taken away]
    (9)
    Full doc with income based on IRS returns [Could make re-underwriting tough? Or not, saw no mention on upper allowable DTI.]
    (11)
    Primary AND SOLE residence [Huge temptation to cheat on this one too]

    (i) Insurance premium
    (1) 3 points up front
    (2) 1.5 points every year after [Is that alot? Seems like a lot.]

    (k) Shared appreciation
    (1) 10%/yr for first 5 yrs, 50-50 thereafter — [Little confused by this, are FHA & lender sharing the appreciation??? does the owner really get nothing?]

    http://www.house.gov/apps/list/press/financialsvcs_dem/hr3221_bill_text.pdf

  403. Clotpoll says:

    Cindy (409)-

    You’re insuring the improvement, not the land.

  404. Clotpoll says:

    (409)-

    I wouldn’t fool around with trying to insure for replacement at lower cost, due to declining value of the property.

    If you ever talk to somebody who’s tried to collect on a policy, you’ll discover that the insurer grossly shorts the insured, no matter what the market conditions are. It’s not unusual for those who are fully-insured for replacement at market value have to litigate to get the full amount.

  405. Cindy says:

    (410) Okay.. so has my “improvement” gone down in value enough to warrant a premium reduction? Let’s say I’m insured now for $300,000 but the actual appraised value would come in at $200,000.

    Isn’t this going to affect the insurance industry as well?

  406. Cindy says:

    Sorry Clot, I was typing while you were answering my question…Thanks

  407. sas says:

    “It’s Always Darkest Before the Dawn…of a Depression”
    http://tinyurl.com/57ypv5

  408. sas says:

    did I hear somebody say bottom?

    ha.
    you best think again.

    SAS

  409. John says:

    For those who are interested, Dick Cavett the famous talk show host had his house in Montaulk insured for replacement value. Well his historic house was totalled and he insisted on 200 year old wood, hand made nails, hand made wood shingles, dozens of coats of paint etc. He did not want a brand new house he wanted his old house replaced as is. Well the insurance company fought and fought and Dick Cavett won. No one is using the word replacement anymore without a lot of disclamers.

  410. John says:

    Thing I am missing is rates are going up. CDs rose last week and they are pricing in at least one 24pb by year end and maybe two hikes. We are at 6.70 right now on a 30 year so it will be around 7% next year. A cut BC starter for even a cheap 500K with 20% down will run 2,800k for the MTG at 7% and you need at least another $1,000 a month for maint, taxes and insurance. You are at $3,800 a month before heat/elec/gas and you better pray the roof or boiler does not go. If rates are high who cares about the loan subs. Sure more people can get them but who can afford them. Reminds me of the 2001 zero percent financing when people ran out and bought 60K Escalades with zero percent down. GM still was selling them at full price yet people got caught up in the no money down no interest. They only gave the loans to people with good credit so you could not walk away and since they were so short in time and with payments all principal unless your walked away in first 12 months you were screwed anyhow.

  411. John says:

    The only people this deal is good for is those long Fannie/Freddie securities or bank bonds or pref stock. The common shareholders will get a dead cat bounce and the smart money will use it to unload some homes the next few weeks at a loss. This is just a dead cat bounce but the smart money will repositoion their portfolio (banks) and for joe blow this is just smoke up his arse.

  412. Nom Deplume says:

    [368] Ket,

    What??? you woke me up! Why the screaming???

  413. jamil says:

    A week or two ago we talked about the disclosure of 401k fees. I hope “Friends of Dodd” were busy enriching themselves with the bailout so they didn’t notice this..

    401(k) proposal would clarify fees

    “A regulation that the Labor Department plans to propose Tuesday would require employers to disclose more information — and in a clearer format — to workers about fees and investments in 401(k) plans,”

  414. willwork4beer says:

    413 spam spam bacon spam

    Thanks for your support. As we feared, not much has changed. Still a bunch of overpriced POS houses. Best line came from Mrs. Beer:

    “Whoever priced this house must have been smoking crack and washing it down with bourbon…”

    That’s why I love that woman. :)

  415. kettle1 says:

    Sorry Nom,

    i was just explaining “eat the rich” to tom.

  416. Clotpoll says:

    beer (428)-

    “Whoever priced this house must have been smoking crack and washing it down with bourbon…”

    The problem with that is…? :)

  417. Cindy says:

    Sas @ 421 (Thanks for the post) – I have spent the last few hours reading up on Austrian Economics. My search landed me at The Daily Reckoning and a story at the end of the article – Lovable, Moronic Capitalists – dtd. 7/25 I thought you would enjoy.

    ***”At dinner, an old friend – who happens to be in the coin business – explained how customers used rare coins as an informal way of estate planning.”

    “These are fellows are pretty shrewd. They come in and buy coins. Sometimes millions of dollars worth. Then they put them in storage somewhere and leave a note to their children about where to find them after they die. Often, the kids don’t know anything about coins. So they come into the shop with bags of these coins, asking me what they are worth. One guy came in the other day. I looked at the coins and told him he had about $350,000 worth of coins in his hand. He practically fell over. Then he told me he had another 14 bags at home.

  418. Cindy says:

    (433) “These ARE fellows – should be old fellows…

  419. John says:

    KKR set to go public, reports say

    By Michael Kitchen, MarketWatch
    Last update: 2:06 p.m. EDT July 27, 2008Comments: 2NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Private equity firm Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. intends to become a public company, reports said Sunday.
    The company, noted for its role in high-profile buyouts, will go public in a complicated transaction in which it will merge with KKR Private Equity Investors ( the investment fund it listed on Euronext Amsterdam two years ago, the Financial Times reported.
    The plan is expected to be announced Monday morning before European markets open, it said.

  420. afe says:

    Have an opportunity to buy that I would love feedback on:

    we live in monmouth county, husband has an hour commute north w/o traffic which was the main reason we were considering moving to north jersey. We have an opportunity to buy the townhouse that we are currently renting. Owner has not set a price and is giving us a chance to buy. He probably wants to sell it b/c he does not want to rent it anymore and would have to put in quite a bit of sweat/money to get this place competitve enough to get anywhere close to recent comps. Since we know (most) of the issues, we won’t pay much more than the owner paid for it about 15 years ago and then we would put in our money for renovations to get it upto snuff. If we go this route, we would not need to get a loan and therefore we’d be banking our rent each month. Good idea or bad? Why?

  421. Happy Camper says:

    Attempted citizen’s arrest of Karl Rove results in four arrests by police

    THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
    Saturday, July 26th 2008, 8:50 PM

    DES MOINES – Four peace activists were arrested as they attempted to make a citizen’s arrest of former top presidential aide Karl Rove.
    “It should be Karl Rove in that van. War criminal!” one of a dozen protesters shouted as the four were put in a police van Friday outside a Des Moines country club where Rove spoke at a Republican fund-raise

  422. Tom says:

    ““Whoever priced this house must have been smoking crack and washing it down with bourbon…”

    The problem with that is…? :)”

    Crack before liquor, never been sicker. Liquor before crack, you’re a pimp daddy mack?

  423. John says:

    does anyone know what the average RE taxes are on a 1.2 million dollar home in upper saddle river?

  424. kettle1 says:

    i havent seen any hard numbers, but i have read in several places that WAMU alone has enough insured accounts to wipe out the remainder of the FDIC’s 50 billion reserve.

    anyone know if this is accurate? I have also seen a number of calls for the FDIC announcing another friday surprise for WAMU this coming friday (based on trading trends)

    I would imagine that the hard #s are somewhere, but havent been able to find any yet.

  425. victorian says:

    440 – Ket.

    Go here –
    http://www4.fdic.gov/IDASP/main_bankfind.asp

    Click on the Current Financial Data.

    Estimated insured deposits – 144,465,473, 000

    Hmmm..FDIC will need a bailout after this one is through.

  426. victorian says:

    Hey, it looks like John’s argument that this is a generation of slackers might hold some water after all…

    “So Mr. Roy still lives near campus, in a 10-foot-by-12-foot room, and rides his bicycle to college house parties. (Drunken riders get B.U.I.’s — “biking under the influence” tickets.) He plays in a band that “sounds like Tom Waits if he tried to make pop music” and considers becoming a teacher, politician or writer.

    “I guess if I knew there was gold in the hills outside of Davis, I might be more willing to hop out and enter the work force,” he says. “But I figure our economy is crumbling; I might as well just stay cool and not worry about it.””

    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/27/education/edlife/27collegetown.html?ref=edlife

  427. kettle1 says:

    VIc,

    where on that site did you find that number?

  428. victorian says:

    443 – ket.

    Ooops, sorry. You gotta search for “Washington Mutual” first.

  429. willwork4beer says:

    432 Clotpoll

    To each his own, but to me its just another flavor of KoolAid.

    Clot, in the end, you’re going to cure more delusional people than Prozac.

    We might just have to put you up for an honorary PhD in Psychology from Grim University… :)

    Clotpoll Says:
    July 27th, 2008 at 12:47 pm
    beer (428)-

    “Whoever priced this house must have been smoking crack and washing it down with bourbon…”

    The problem with that is…? :)

  430. victorian says:

    Kettle:

    Also, what is your opinion on the Pickens plan?

    Friedman has an ed on in today;s Times. Interesting concept on an electric car in Israel.
    “Agassi’s plan, backed by Israel’s government, is to create a complete electric car “system” that will work much like a mobile-phone service “system,” only customers sign up for so many monthly miles, instead of minutes. Every subscriber will get a car, a battery and access to a national network of recharging outlets all across Israel — as well as garages that will swap your dead battery for a fresh one whenever needed.

    His company, Better Place, and its impressive team would run the smart grid that charges the cars and is also contracting for enough new solar energy from Israeli companies — 2 gigawatts over 10 years — to power the whole fleet. “Israel will have the world’s first virtual oilfield in the Negev Desert,” said Agassi. His first 500 electric cars, built by Renault, will hit Israel’s roads next year.”

    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/27/opinion/27friedman.html?ref=opinion

  431. kettle1 says:

    Vic,

    thanks for the link!

    a few other banks FDIC insured amounts:

    National City: $76,953,418,698
    BofA: $504,984,642,743
    wachovia: $3,276,446,026
    Citi: $320,690,657,600

  432. Sybarite101 X says:

    Someone asked about the Flood Area fields in the MLS:

    “Flood Fields – The Flood Area and Flood Insurance fields have been removed from the MLS due to the resulting litigations caused by them. If you have AutoEmails configured that utilize either Flood Area or Flood Insurance as part of their criteria, you’ll need to revise those searches.”

  433. chicagofinance says:

    victorian Says:
    July 27th, 2008 at 4:37 pm
    Hey, it looks like John’s argument that this is a generation of slackers might hold some water after all…
    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/27/education/edlife/27collegetown.html?ref=edlife

    vic: Honestly, one of the biggest allures of Cornell is The Grind mentality. Essentially, you should graduate in 4 years, because there is a huge stigma in hangers-on. The attitude by the students that remain when dealing with a hanger-on…..WTF are doing here? Get on with your life! We have school work to do, I don’t have the time or money to slack with you.

    It was one of the shocking things I saw in Albany when I visited my cousin. See these year five, year six super seniors and grads just hanging around living with students. I was aghast….

  434. jamil says:

    vic: About the electric car article.

    This is old story and reminds me of all those “oil found in israel” inventions in the last 50 years, always backed by some rich American scam-artist. First, the article is heavily biased BS (eh, he managed to slip both swift-boat bashing and Bush bashing there??) so it is difficult to take it seriously (but then again, this is NYT which managed to destroy 90% of its value in the last few years).

    Israel may be the place to one day run electric cars (extremely small country, no oil, determined to get rid of oil), but having the same system in the US requires drinking a lot of koolaid. Distances in the US are huge and building service centers around the country is impossible (and would require a lot of nuclear power btw). In theory, it could work inside NYC but the cars could not ever leave NYC.

    Let’s hope Israel can do it (I seriously doubt it), but even if they can do it, it has zero relevance to the US, because of the size of the country.

  435. Victorian says:

    450 – Jamil.

    Why do you choose to ignore facts and see everything through a politically colored lens?

    Fact – We cannot afford our addiction to oil. The solution is clearly not drilling offshore for more oil. Bush’s own team has said that this wont have an effect (negligible at best) for the next 5 -10 years). If this is not short-sighted, what is?
    Developing alternative sources of energy and the infrastructure for it – a)creates jobs here. b)reduces capital outflow to foreign countries.

    The article does not mention nuclear energy, but solar energy.

    Boone Pickens and Shai Agassi have no connection with each other. Pickens is trying to harness wind energy across America.

    I do not think americans drive cross-country all the time. For those that do, they should look at taking mass transit – trains, buses, airplanes. Of course, american habits have got to change to adapt to the reality. Days of $40 gas are over.

  436. Fiddy Cents on the Dollar says:

    afe :436

    Can you tell us a little more?

    What community is the townhouse located? Community location in Monmouth county is very important.

    2 bedroom, 3 bedroom? How many baths? Without giving away any more than you’re comfortable with….what complex is this?

    Condo/Townhomes are like the canary in the coal mine. In an up market, they get way ahead of the curve. In a down market, they will sink beyond the true bottom.

  437. jamil says:

    victorian:

    What facts? Besides, the article had strong political bias (as everything in NYT – this is probably the reason that its market value has crashed and its credibility is so low).

    I agree that we should do everything to 1) reduce the need for oil imports (which come from hostile regimes), and 2) reduce the need for oil overall.

    The idea might work in Israel because distances are short but it is totally unrealistic in the US.

    Importing sugar cane from Brazil (instead of ethanol) might actually help us a bit, but those damn farmers in Iowa and their lobby won’t allow it. We should follow Brazil in energy policy: Drill oil and use sugar.

  438. AntiTrump says:

    #415 Sean:

    Have said it couple of times. The bill is more bark than bite. Many won’t even qualify for this deal. How many of these sub-primers do you think even documented their income???

    Basically “Liars Mortgages” do not qualify for the Bailout due the income documentation clause.

  439. AntiTrump says:

    Frank:

    You are correct. There is no recession cause:

    1. You got three mortgage related job offers.
    2. Hoboken Condos in you old building sell for prices 60% higher than in 2004.
    3. One premium apt in Manhattan sold for a sky high price.

    Incidentally these are the three key indicators that National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) watches to define a recession.

  440. Clotpoll says:

    Which one of these people will trigger Volcker’s gag reflex first?:

    July 27 (Bloomberg) — Democrat Barack Obama said he is convening a meeting on the economy tomorrow that will include former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker and billionaire investor Warren Buffett as he pivots to the U.S. economy after a nine-day trip abroad.

    “I expect some further fine-tuning of short-term policies based on what’s happened over the last several months,” Obama said in an interview last night aboard his presidential campaign plane returning to Chicago from London.

    The meeting in Washington will also include former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers, New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine, former Labor Secretary Robert Reich and Anna Burger, secretary- treasurer of the Service Employees International Union, said David Axelrod, Obama’s chief strategist.

  441. yo says:

    Longtime silent participant here. When r Hoboken prices gonna crash?

  442. afe says:

    fiddy (452)-

    why is the specific development important?

  443. afe says:

    let us just say that we are quite comfortable here except for the commuting. We figure that even if we have to sell, we can sell at bottom prices and still not be adversely affected while we wait for this thing to bottom and save our rent money.

  444. victorian says:

    453- Jamil

    An editorial is supposed to have a bias. It is the author’s opinion.

    “I agree that we should do everything to 1) reduce the need for oil imports (which come from hostile regimes), and 2) reduce the need for oil overall.”

    Can you point out instances when the current administration has moved towards these goals?

  445. afe says:

    Other pertinent info: Not looking for an investment at all. The price we are willing to pay is about 40% of the high selling price in this particular townhouse community.

  446. Fiddy Cents on the Dollar says:

    afe

    Not that important. I was going to look up recent sales for you.

    What town are you located in??

  447. bi says:

    459#, after bush announced to lift ban on offshore drilling, crude droped from $148 to $122. it works. as long as you have options open, speculators will move the market the other way. some folks here just don’t understand basic psycology.

  448. jamil says:

    459: Every article in that ragtag has political bias.

    Can you point out instances when the current administration has moved towards these goals?

    Executive order to allow drilling is a great first step. (even if it take few years, it would send a signal to the market that we are serious).
    Also, streamlining nuclear power approval (and oil shale development) process.

  449. bi says:

    some members of this board blame bush for everthing in their miserable life. this is the mentality of obsama supporters.

  450. Essex says:

    The only thing I blame Bush for are his obvious blunders and complete incompetence — of course congress is also completely ineffectual. What we need are two term limits for ALL ELECTED OFFICIALS.

  451. kettle1 says:

    Vic,

    I like the majority of boones plan, you have to start somewhere.

    Bi

    I dont blame bush. Bush is just a symptom of deeper problems in american society, such as apathy and rampant consumerism. you are not a consumer, you are a person.

  452. bi says:

    Did you think bush was the greatest president when his approval rating was about 90%? it is the same bush. even today his approval rating is 3 times higher than congress.

    http://thinkprogress.org/2008/07/24/27-percent-bush-hits-new-approval-low-in-fox-news-poll/

  453. BC Bob says:

    “459#, after bush announced to lift ban on offshore drilling, crude droped from $148 to $122. it works. as long as you have options open, speculators will move the market the other way. some folks here just don’t understand basic psycology.”

    bi,

    Please stop with your asinine analysis. Bush couldn’t move the crude market if he was sh*tting light sweet. Semgroup got caught with a hedge/spec position and could not obtain the financing to cover its margin. They could not deliver the physical fast enough to satisfy their bankers. The market knew it and blew them out. It resulted in a melt up, blow off top. What happens at that time?

    Bury your “psycology” theory.

    As long as you have options open? Anybody, interpretation?

  454. jamil says:

    bob: Actually, pretty much anything (signs of war with Iran, signs of pro-drilling decisions, new oil field found, cheaper coal-to-oil method developed) affects the price of oil. Bush (as any president) is doing things that clearly affect the price.

    The executive order to allow offshore drilling and the increasing probability that congress opens offshore/anwr (voters now overwhelmingly supports offshore drilling) and supports other oil or energy exploration naturally affects the price of oil.

  455. jamil says:

    On related note:
    Virginia Is Sitting on the Energy Mother Lode

    “In Pittsylvania County, just north of the North Carolina border, the largest undeveloped uranium deposit in the United States — and the seventh largest in the world, according to industry monitor UX Consulting — sits on land owned by neighbors Henry Bowen and Walter Coles.”

  456. kettle1 says:

    469, jamil

    psychology will only last for so long. The governments own studies show that even if you drill in every location currently restricted in the US, any effect will no be seen for 10 years and then the effect will be negligible. The primary effect will the substantial personal enrichment of the CEO’s involved.

  457. jamil says:

    it is also funny to compare the the articles (NYT and WSJ). NYT article is full of political rants, WSJ is what article (even opinion) should be about: Neutral, stick-to-facts and balanced.

    kettle: Psychology plays always important role in the market (in oil futures, stock market and housing). US is the only country that limits oil drilling (UK, Brazil, Norway do not have such political restrictions) and it would clearly have an impact on price.

    Dems demand that Strategic Reserve should be opened and it would lower price. Maybe somebody can explain why the minuscule amount of oil in SPR (which is meant to be used only in supply breaks) would lower the price of oil but not the massive amount of oil in offshore/anwr?

  458. Clotpoll says:

    456 moderated. I used the word “g@g”.

    I think I use that word every day.

  459. bi says:

    471#, kettle, i also heard some experts saying that they can pipe out oil in 1 or 2 years. my point is that there are so many experts now and you just need to listen whom you believe.

  460. Clotpoll says:

    bi (475)-

    “…you just need to listen whom you believe.”

    Keep listening to those barking dogs in your head, bi.

  461. BC Bob says:

    Jamil [469],

    We are talking about front month crude. You’re wrong regarding off shore drilling. This will have zero affect pertaining to Aug/Sept/Oct., etc., crude. The market does not pay any attention to that rhetoric. How does a potential 10 year program affect today’s physical market? An attack by mend or any actions regarding Iran is a different animal.

    The ace in the hole to affect front month, Bush, is to lean on Bergabe to raise rates and release product immediately from spr. Good luck.

    The market will find its own balance. The market is bidding for storage at this time, spreads favoring back months.

  462. bi says:

    468#, bob, with this moderate decline in engery price, we got a top energy trading firm to unwind the posiion. imagine if oil declines another 20%, how many speculators will get caught. i think bush’s executive order is a good trigger.

  463. BC Bob says:

    bi [477],

    Please stop. They covered their shorts, resulting in a short term blow off top. The market had them pegged.

    Since you are on top of this, please explain how front month, crude, exploded up $10-12 while the spreads widened out?

    I’m all ears.

  464. Clotpoll says:

    bi (478)-

    Good luck with that.

  465. reinvestor X says:

    EXACTLY. This board is thick with liberals, radicials and Osama supporters. There’s really not much of a distinction between those three. You can paint them all with the same brush.

    bi Says:
    July 27th, 2008 at 7:48 pm
    some members of this board blame bush for everthing in their miserable life. this is the mentality of obsama supporters.

  466. kettle1 says:

    Bi, jamil

    there are 2 discussions here. the 1st is short term oil price behavior. The second is intermediate / long term supply.

    I expect fairly volatile price moves in the short term, both up and down, with a net upward movement at time periods greater then 1 year. while i have some personal opinions i have little in the way e=of expertise in making short term calls on this time scale.
    On the intermediate and long term time scale (5+ years), geology has given us the answer already, up.
    $150 is the current sticky point, but like 100, once we break 150, its a race to 200.

  467. kettleX says:

    This board is thick with conservatives, radicials and McCain supporters. There’s really not much of a distinction between those three. You can paint them all with the same brush.

  468. lostinny says:

    Did you think bush was the greatest president when his approval rating was about 90%? it is the same bush. even today his approval rating is 3 times higher than congress.

    Are you kidding? How could you post things like this and hope anyone to have any respect for you?

  469. kettleX says:

    IMF paper (PDF) on US housing.

    What Goes Up Must Come Down?
    House Price Dynamics in the United States

    should provide fodder for plenty of arguments. I am still reading it, so no comments yet.

    http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2008/wp08187.pdf

  470. sean says:

    More fun on capital hill this week, looks like the red tape will take a year to cut for the 400k plus homeowners this Bill is supposed to help.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ad1iF8nRjzh4&refer=home

  471. sean says:

    Housing wire says loan service companies want access to the Fed Discount window inorder to put a moratorium on forclosures until the new program is setup!.

    http://www.housingwire.com/2008/07/26/as-housing-act-passes-questions-emerge/

  472. jamil says:

    bob 482: “On the intermediate and long term time scale (5+ years), geology has given us the answer already, up.”

    Actually, it hasn’t. Higher price in dollars may be probable, but certainly not guaranteed. US can get serious in energy, and allow drilling in offshore/ANWR, build nuke plants, import sugar from Brazil, and get rid of state-specific boutique gasoline. Also, various coal-to-oil, oil shales and other schemes can be improved and made practical.

    Nancy Pelosi must re-authorize the offshore drilling ban few days before the election (unless she manages to get rid of congressional rules – this is the most ethical and transparent congress after all). It is going to fun to watch.

  473. kettle1 says:

    UK follows in US’s foot steps…..

    UK treasury prepares radical plan to rescue mortgage lenders

    The Treasury is preparing a radical rescue plan for the housing market which may involve pumping billions of pounds into the stricken mortgage markets.

    Alistair Darling, the Chancellor, has asked his leading advisers to investigate a plan to provide government support for lenders until the financial crisis has abated. The proposal is being investigated ahead of the completion of Sir James Crosby’s report into the funding struggles faced by UK banks.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/07/27/cnplan127.xml

  474. BC Bob says:

    bob 482: “On the intermediate and long term time scale (5+ years), geology has given us the answer already, up.”

    Jamil,

    Not I.

  475. kettle1 says:

    Jamil,

    look into EROEI. if i replace x barrels of lights sweet crude (a high EROEI product) with heavy oil, CTL, ethanol, etc (all of which are low EROEI) then you do not have a 1 to 1 replacement of energy. 1 to 1 replacement of volume is irrelevant. it the EROEI silly

  476. kettle1 says:

    Jamil ,

    where do think they are wrong in their assessment?

    EIA, Impacts of Increased Access to Oil and Natural Gas Resources in the Lower 48 Federal Outer Continental Shelf
    http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/otheranalysis/ongr.html

  477. yome says:

    Car runs on h2o.Will it make it here in the US?How will the govt replace revenues from oil?Just like promises of eliminating Alternative Minimum Tax.
    http://online.wsj.com/public/page/8_0004.html?bctid=1600171070

  478. kettle1 says:

    yome

    its a fuel cell car. while the tech is interesting, as usual, the devil is in the details. instead of writing a book google fuel cell gars and look at the current road blocks to the tech. The website is in japanese, so i cant read their tech PDF.
    This tech like many others may be great for niche markets, the trick is finding an equivalent to gasoline (not that hard), and then finding a way to utilize it that dosnt require a total infrastructure shift ( very hard).

    http://www.genepax.co.jp/en/

    the core problem is that we need an infrastructure shift, but those are expense, disryptive and take a long time to do.

  479. kettle1 says:

    while i cannot speak to their exact tech, here is a link discussing some of the current issues

    http://tinyurl.com/5pt3ue

  480. yome says:

    I think it seperates hydrogen from water and change it to electric.It is a electric car.

  481. kettle1 says:

    yome,

    a it is a fuel cell, car. the water is separated into o2 and h2 ( not clear if this is by electrolysis or some other method, cant read japanese :( ). the H2 is then used by the fuel cell to create electricity which runs the car.

    An electric car implies something that runs only on batteries, stored electrical power. that is not what this car does.

    how fuel cells work
    http://tinyurl.com/2772cu

  482. kettle1 says:

    PDF of water car tech (in Japanese)

    a fuel cell is clearly shown on pages 8,9,10

    http://www.genepax.co.jp/pdf/wes_20080613_ver1.pdf

  483. kettle1 says:

    yome

    an electric car doesn’t need any inputs except for electricity. this car needs fuel, aka water which it then uses to create electricity

  484. kettle1 says:

    looks like someone already called out genepax.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water-fuelled_car

    In June 2008, Japanese company Genepax unveiled a car claimed to run on water and air,[7] and many news outlets dubbed the vehicle a “water-fuel car”.[8] The company says it “cannot [reveal] the core part of this invention,” yet,[9] but it has disclosed that the system uses an onboard energy generator (a “membrane electrode assembly”) to extract the hydrogen using a “mechanism which is similar to the method in which hydrogen is produced by a reaction of metal hydride and water”.[10] The hydrogen is then used to generate energy to run the car. This has led to speculation that the metal hydride is consumed in the process and is the ultimate source of the car’s energy, making the car hydride-, rather than water-fuelled.[11][12][13] The company has said that it has filed for a patent.[14] On June 27th 2008 they released information in English on their website, where the energy source is explained only with the words “Chemical reaction”.[15] The science and technology magazine Popular Mechanics has described Genepax’s claims as “Rubbish.”[16]

    this defiantly falls under “extraordinary claims require extra ordinary evidence”

    the image most people have of a car running off of water violates thermodynamics

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