Whitney: “Home prices are going to fall much more than people expect”

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Thursday, August 21st at 8:00pm

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405 Route 3 East
Clifton, NJ 07014

Tickets can be purchased online, click here.

From CNBC:

Housing Prices Could Skid Another 33%, Analyst Says

Housing prices will fall more than 30 percent before the market recovers and banks will continue their reluctance to lend until the credit crisis clears up, Oppenheimer analyst Meredith Whitney said on CNBC.

In a wide-ranging interview, Whitney said the housing deterioration will be worse than even the doom-and-gloom predictions that already have circulated regarding the market.

“There’s one obvious area where the bad news isn’t all out yet, and that’s with home prices … Home prices are going to fall much more than people expect,” she said.

“I think it’s going to be well worse than 33 percent, and here’s why: If you look at the futures market, it’s indicating a range right around between 2002-2003 levels, when home ownership rates were actually higher, but fewer people can qualify for a mortgage because you’ve got to put 20 percent down, and that’s a lot of money for people,” she continued. “Furthermore, then you’ve got to find a bank to lend to you, because, Countrywide’s not lending to you.”

“If you don’t need capital you can get capital. If you need capital, you’re not going to get capital,” she said.

The banking and housing industries will only recover, Whitney said, when banks start feeling comfortable enough to lend again.

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

445 Responses to Whitney: “Home prices are going to fall much more than people expect”

  1. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    Ambac, MBIA May Report Third Straight Loss as Housing Slides

    Ambac Financial Group Inc. and MBIA Inc., the bond insurers that lost their top credit ratings and saw their shares plunge more than 80 percent, may report a third straight quarterly loss as the mortgage-related debt they guarantee tumbles in value.

    Ambac and MBIA are reducing the value of contracts on collateralized debt obligations amid the worst housing slump since the Great Depression at the same time their original business of insuring municipal bonds dries up. Just 24 percent of the state and local debt sold in the first half of the year was insured, down from 49 percent in the same period of 2007, according to data compiled by Thomson Reuters.

    “These companies are now marginal in terms of new business,” Christopher Whalen, co-founder of research firm Institutional Risk Analytics in Torrance, California, said. “If municipalities keep going to market without insurance, their business is dead.”

  2. grim says:

    From the WSJ:

    Credit-Card Bonds Fight
    A Tougher Debt Market
    August 5, 2008

    Investors are growing wary of bonds backed by credit-card payments, jamming up another debt market and making it tougher for Americans to tap what has been one of the easiest places to get credit.

    Rising defaults on credit-card payments, coupled with a bleaker economic outlook, are spooking investors in the market where this debt is packaged and sold. In July, issuance of credit-card asset-backed securities fell to $4.4 billion from $5.26 billion in June, according to J.P. Morgan Securities Inc.

    July’s total was down 56% from the $10.08 billion issued in March.

    Investors who aren’t too leery to buy are demanding higher returns on securities tied to credit-card loans. On Friday, a $1 billion offering of packaged credit-card loans from American Express Co. sold at 0.82 percentage point over a benchmark commonly used to price such deals. That was 0.04 percentage point more expensive than a similar credit-card deal from Bank of America Corp. that priced July 29.

    “Deal flows have slowed considerably, and deals are taking longer to market,” Chris Flanagan, head of global structured-finance research at J.P. Morgan Securities, said in a research note Monday.

    Tepid demand in the asset-backed market, a primary source of funding for credit-card issuers, hurts in two ways. It raises the borrowing costs for these companies, translating into higher rates for consumers. It also forces the companies to keep more loans on their balance sheets, thus locking up funds they could have extended to credit-card users.

  3. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac to Report Losses Through 2008

    Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the biggest U.S. mortgage-finance companies, may report net losses through the first quarter of 2009 as home-loan delinquencies rise to the highest on record, analysts’ estimates show.

    Freddie, based in McLean, Virginia, probably will say tomorrow when it releases second-quarter results that it had $1.9 billion in credit-related costs, while Washington-based Fannie will report $2.4 billion, according to Credit Suisse analyst Moshe Orenbuch in New York. The companies’ regulator said July 22 that they may need to write down the value of $217 billion in securities.

    “We see them continuing to lose money for the next several quarters,” said Orenbuch, the top-ranked analyst covering the companies, according to Institutional Investor magazine. He rates Fannie and Freddie “underperform.” “Their credit losses are still going to be stubbornly high and that’s only partially offset by the better revenues” for guaranteeing loans from default, he said in an interview.

  4. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    Greenspan: More bank bail-outs possible

    More financial institutions could see government bailouts before the credit crisis runs its course, former U.S. Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan wrote in Tuesday’s Financial Times. “There may be numbers of banks and other financial institutions that, at the edge of defaulting, will end up being bailed out by governments,” Greenspan said. The crisis will end only when U.S. home prices begin to stabilize, clarifying equity levels, which serve as collateral support for mortgage-backed securities. Greenspan warned against governments seeking to “reassert their grip” on economic affairs. “If that becomes widespread, globalization could reverse — at awesome cost,” he wrote.

  5. RPatrick says:

    Just wanted to mention that the NYS job pay thing that was posted here yesterday does NOT list location/geographic/overtime.

    One of my subordinates is listed as making 38K base ( still not bad for HS degree only ) but with OT and all the rest of it makes about 100K

  6. SG says:

    Lawmakers and preservationists must decide how to reconcile competing goals

    Star-Ledger Staff

    As many officials in northern New Jersey see it, the Highlands Act and the state’s affordable-housing laws are two noble causes that appear to be on a collision course.

    On the one hand is a law intended to preserve a huge, environmentally sensitive swath of the state that provides water to more than half the region. On the other is the constitutional requirement that communities provide decent housing for low- and moderate-income residents.

  7. grim says:

    From the Trenton Times:

    State’s foreclosure rate among country’s worst

    A study released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York yesterday paints the starkest picture of the subprime mortgage crisis in New Jersey to date.

    New Jersey’s ratio of subprime mortgages — those high-cost loans given to borrowers with less-than-perfect credit — in foreclosures is the nation’s fifth-highest and actually exceeds the national figure, according to the study.

    The study also found the home foreclosure crisis in New Jersey does not cut across all neighborhoods and economic classes in the state. Rather, subprime-related foreclosures are concentrated in clusters of largely urban zip codes, creating specific pockets of economic pain in low- and moderate-income neighborhoods.

    The New Jersey counties with the largest share of subprime mortgages in foreclosure — a combined 25 percent — are Essex and Union, the study found.

    In Essex County, about 75 percent of subprime mortgages in the foreclosure process — a total of 1,127 loans — are concentrated in 11 of the county’s 31 zip codes. Those 11 zip codes are in Bloomfield, East Orange, Irvington, Newark, Orange and West Orange.

    In Union County, the picture is even more bleak.

    The majority of subprime mortgages in the foreclosure process there — a total of 789 loans — are concentrated in eight of the county’s 26 zip codes. The eight zip codes are in Elizabeth, Hillside, Linden, Plainfield, Roselle and Union.

    The negative effect on neighborhoods with high concentrations of subprime mortgages in foreclosure is high, the report said.

    “This trend is promoting growing concern about the potential impact on individual homeowners as well as on the neighborhoods where these properties are concentrated,” the report said.

  8. NJl$ord says:

    It would be interesting to see all foreclosures coming down the pipe, as RE never go down myth will reveal its true color.

  9. DL says:

    Think someone was looking for this yesterday: NJ government salaries and overtime.


  10. DDK says:

    33% sounds nice. It would take at least half of that to make the newer 2 bedroom townhouses in my area affordable to families with the median income — and that’s at current low interest rates. If rates shot up, 33% would not seem crazy.

    We’re still 25% above 2003 levels (when prices were already inching up). That’s ~10% in salary-comparison-levels.

  11. Clotpoll says:

    Another pearl of wisdom from our local King of Real Estate. Just brilliant stuff:

    “The top 10% are upbeat and positive. They are not whiners and chronic complainers. They know that positive results come from a positive outlook. When they make a mistake, do poorly on a listing appointment or lose a sale, they don’t beat themselves up. They use this information to improve their strategies.

    Are you in the 10% club? Membership is open to any sales agent who wants to win and not whine.”

    IMO, “coffee is for closers” is much more effective.

  12. reinvestor X says:

    Please, this is child’s play compared to 3bonehead’s cheapness. I don’t want to harp on it, but we all know about his “economizing” with toilet tissue.

    There is such a thing as taking things to far.

    SG Says:
    August 5th, 2008 at 7:10 am

    Let’s Get Cheap

  13. DDK says:

    SG — “Let’s Get Cheap” got a sigh out of me. We’re doing or approximating ALL 25 of its suggestions already, are making just under the median income for our area, and we would still have to overextend ourselves to buy the median house in our area. That seems like another signal that prices will still fall.

  14. DDK says:

    Harrumph…last post for the morning: I just realized my comment about having to “overextend ourselves” to buy is only a turn-off to us. Everybody else in our area MAKES that choice, which is why we spend so much time listening to the homeowners talking about how tight their expenses are and how they’re slipping into debt.

    So maybe if prices fall far enough for people to live within their means to buy, the fall will be brief — only long enough for the banks to start passing out rope again.

  15. Tom says:

    What do they mean by the credit crisis clearing up?

    House prices are going to fall around 30% and then continue to rise at a reasonable pace just like they did before. There is not going to be any magic money to fix the credit markets. They just need to learn how to be more responsible and deal with not making billion dollar bonuses. We’re all going to feel the pinch.

    There was a posting on NJ Voices that I replied to in my blog about how NJ isn’t doing enough to fix the problem that I replied to in my blog. That really bugs me. As some of you noticed, I think the banks were reckless and screwed things up and are now looking for handouts.

    NJ was one of the few governments that tried to put an end to the predatory lending practices that caused this crisis but the federal government stepped in on behalf of the lending industry.

  16. Clotpoll says:

    Don’t look now; Freddie down in premarket…new reports that the CEO looked the other way when his risk manager told him things were getting dicey a couple of years ago.

  17. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    D.R. Horton narrows third-quarter loss

    D.R. Horton Inc. said Tuesday that it narrowed its fiscal third-quarter loss to $399.3 million, or $1.26 a share, from the year-earlier loss of $823.8 million, or $2.62 a share. The loss for the latest period included $330.4 million in pretax charges and write-offs. The Fort Worth, Texas, home builder said revenue for the period fell to $1.43 billion from $2.55 billion. On average, analysts polled by FactSet Research expected a loss of 46 cents a share. D.R. Horton said it closed on 6,167 homes in the latest quarter, compared with 9,643 in the year-ago quarter.

  18. Sastry says:

    Clotpoll [17]… Freddie is not down in pre-market.

  19. BC Bob says:

    “If you don’t need capital you can get capital. If you need capital, you’re not going to get capital,” she said.

    This depicts the RE market from 2008-2011.

  20. BC Bob says:


    Just go back and compare notes; Mike Morgan vs any bull pundit. Let us know what you dig up.

  21. SteveTheBrigadoonian says:

    Anybody know of an alternative to njtransit for commuting from westfield to NYC (downtown)? Aren’t there some private commuter vans/buses or something?

  22. Clotpoll says:


    Thanks. Browser must’ve pulled up a cached page. That report about the CEO is for real, though.

  23. Clotpoll says:

    BC (21)-

    His silence will be deafening. However, he has a shiny, optimistic outlook. We all know that will get you through anything.

    [sarcasm off]

  24. BC Bob says:

    Clot [24],

    Here’s some shiny optimism;

    “US Blackmailed By China?”


  25. reinvestor X says:

    There are a number of people out here like Roubini who hate America. Peter Schiff is another one like Roubini. Schiff is very very arrogant. Sure, he might have predicted a few things accurately, but he’s a jerk. Check out these links, two of which are from 2006 and 2007. He even pisses off the people he’s on the show with. He’s very very arrogant and needs to be put in his place. He called America a burden on the world–he’s a real dirtbag. He upsets everyone he appears on TV with.




  26. reinvestor X says:


    26 in moderation

  27. reinvestor X says:

    I assume it’s because of the word schiff?

  28. reinvestor X says:

    People like Morgan, Roubini and Peter
    S(chiff) are full of it.

    BC Bob Says:
    August 5th, 2008 at 7:50 am

    Just go back and compare notes; Mike Morgan vs any bull pundit. Let us know what you dig up.

  29. tbw says:

    Do you want to know if you can afford to buy a house? Contact a Realtor today!

  30. twice shy says:

    Steve [22],

    I think there was or is a mid-town bus line that runs down South Ave. I’m pretty sure it is private and expensive. Sorry I can’t be more specific; maybe someone else will provide more info.
    IMO, the train is the best bet.

  31. bi says:

    23#, clot, pre-market is making you nervous again! oil down $2.2 to under $120, gold down 13 to under $900. SKF down $4 to $119.

  32. Mikeinwaiting says:

    tbw 30 LOL!
    No offense intended Clot.

    BC talking head on CNBC this morn Steve Lisemen oil prices going down due to bad economy. Didn’t we go over this a week or 2 ago. These guys get payed for this.

  33. grim says:

    From the NYT:

    At Freddie Mac, Chief Discarded Warning Signs

    The chief executive of the mortgage giant Freddie Mac rejected internal warnings that could have protected the company from some of the financial crises now engulfing it, according to more than two dozen current and former high-ranking executives and others.

    That chief executive, Richard F. Syron, in 2004 received a memo from Freddie Mac’s chief risk officer warning him that the firm was financing questionable loans that threatened its financial health.

    In an interview, Freddie Mac’s former chief risk officer, David A. Andrukonis, recalled telling Mr. Syron in mid-2004 that the company was buying bad loans that “would likely pose an enormous financial and reputational risk to the company and the country.”

    Mr. Syron received a memo stating that the firm’s underwriting standards were becoming shoddier and that the company was becoming exposed to losses, according to Mr. Andrukonis and two others familiar with the document.

    But as they sat in a conference room, Mr. Syron refused to consider possibilities for reducing Freddie Mac’s risks, said Mr. Andrukonis, who left in 2005 to become a teacher.

    “He said we couldn’t afford to say no to anyone,” Mr. Andrukonis said. Over the next three years, Freddie Mac continued buying riskier loans.

    Those and other choices initially paid off for Mr. Syron, who has collected more than $38 million in compensation since 2003.

  34. Fiddy Cents on the Dollar says:

    Freddie Mac CEO

    That would be Richard Syron, who pulled down a cool $20M bucks last year.

    $1.2Meg in salary, $3.45Meg in bonuses, and $14Meg in stock options (although the options may not be worth the paper they’re printed on this morning).

    Who knows how much he lifted from his old job at the American Stock Exchange before he flew that coup.

    That’s nice work if you can get it.

  35. BC Bob says:

    50.5 [29],

    B*tch all you want. When you look at your brokerage statement, all that matters is 2 words; debit/credit.

  36. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Or was that 3b that I posted to about the oil.
    I’m losing it!

  37. lostinny says:

    DH says no to the fair.

  38. SG says:

    Why Bailouts Stink—and Why We Need Them

    No one really knows what all this effort will cost taxpayers. But there’s no doubt taxpayers are on the hook if the housing market continues to deteriorate.

    Is that fair? Why should folks who didn’t get caught up in the real estate frenzy of the 2000s pay for the financial mistakes of those that did? Many people didn’t stretch their finances to buy as big a house as possible or invest in several “sure-fire” properties. They didn’t take out interest-only mortgages, option ARMs, or apply for so-called liar loans. They were prudent with their money, perhaps continuing to rent while their friends bought homes or maybe staying in their smallish abode because the mortgage payments were affordable. Now they’re on the hook for bailing out Wall Street, bankers, and irresponsible borrowers. That’s not fair, is it?

    No, it isn’t.

  39. 3b says:

    #4 grim:The crisis will end only when U.S. home prices begin to stabilize, clarifying equity levels, which serve as collateral support for mortgage-backed securities.

    Don’t prices have to finish falling before they stabilize?

  40. 3b says:

    #13 re-retard: Dude we have been through this already. And as I have said countless times, at least I use toliet tissue as opposed to you, who uses none.

    I also do not have lady friends on the internet like yourself.

  41. Seneca says:

    For those of you into “vintage” homes, this one has been lingering for quite some time and I believe the original asking price started with a “9”. As of today it starts with a “6”. Can anyone research what the real original price was?

    MLS 2521659

    “An Original Early 1700’s Georgian Colonial. Beautiful Home W/Old World Charm. New:Furnace, Roof, Windows, Remod Kitch W/Granite. Hand Hewn Beams, Wide Plank Pine Flrs. Big Rms. 9′ Cieling. 5 Fp’s.”

  42. lostinny says:

    3b Don’t bother
    Reinvestor is about as real as John’s stories. John’s so full of sh!t, he doesn’t even know what a hosemonster is.

  43. bairen says:

    #43 lostinny

    I saw your’s and John’s definitions last night. Seems like the same type of person to me :)

  44. lostinny says:

    Don’t get me started. :)

  45. John says:

    Actually, I am not good at making up stories mine are all real. This afternoon, I will write part three of my 4D triology, I will get back to part two later. Part three includes a night out with a future senator, a teamate of Michael Jordan and the usual hot girls, limos and 80’s club. That story came back to me at the basketball player has now turned politician and drouble crossed his old senator friend a few weeks ago and it hit the papers so I had a blast from the past moment.

    1986 was a lost year on wall street of white lines, absolute vodka, three piece suits, power ties, cursing and affairs (and that was just at work!)

  46. kettle1 says:


    life isnt fair, and this isnt soccer camp where we all get trophies just for participating! Trying to give everyone a trophy is how we are about to end up in a nasty little depression!

  47. njpatient says:

    12 clot

    “The top 10% are upbeat and positive. They are not whiners and chronic complainers. They know that positive results come from a positive outlook.”

    Funny. You know who the most famous proponent of that life philosophy is?

    Good ol’ Charlie Brown

  48. njpatient says:

    Hey Nom – why were we talking about my bonus yesterday?

  49. Fiddy Cents on the Dollar says:

    Vintage Homes….

    You’ve got to be very careful with those older colonials. Unless they are properly restored and maintained, they can be a step away from disaster at any moment….think “Money Pit” with Tom Hanks.

    There’s virtually no way to establish a value for the home since true comparables probably don’t exist. Even if you could find a model-match on the same size lot just down the street, there’s no telling what has gone into the home over the past 200 years. That’s why the asking price started in the 9’s and has fallen into the 6’s.

    The seller just hopes that another afficionado of vintage homes comes along at just the right time and pays full asking price.

  50. Sean says:

    Fire sale at Lehman, get your investment management unit at tommorows prices today.


  51. John says:

    Since most realtors are losers being in the top ten % is like being the smartest kid in special ed.

  52. bairen says:

    I think i’m getting a man crush on John.

    Like the one I had on Han Solo when I was a kid.

  53. frank says:

    Is Clotpoll the least popular kid in special ed class then?

  54. Clotpoll says:

    Tard (26)-

    “He (Schiff) called America a burden on the world…”

    The US’ two biggest exports?

    1. Debt

    2. Inflation

  55. Clotpoll says:

    Tard (29)-

    Great research there. A real point-by-point, factual rebuttal.

  56. Sean says:

    re: #55

    3. Greehouse gases
    4. Lard Asses

  57. Clotpoll says:

    bi (32)-

    Better pray for no more hurricanes & for Ahmadinejad to turn Christian. Unfortunately, August has just begun.

  58. Tom says:


    I can’t seem to find the listing for that home. Do you have a link to it?

    Sounds like a nice home but like $.50 said you have to be careful with homes like that. Looks like it was remodeled, I’d personally prefer it not to be and do the work myself so I know it’s done right.

  59. Clotpoll says:

    Mike (33)-

    None taken. Actually, the first place for a buyer to go in this market is to his lender.

    First, to make sure the door of the lender’s office is not padlocked shut. Second, to make sure that lender has any money to lend.

  60. njpatient says:

    31 twice

    “IMO, the train is the best bet.”

    I prefer the NJ Transit bus (can take from South Ave, North Ave or 22), because I don’t have to get out at Newark, sprint for my connection, and then stand between cars the rest of the way.

  61. Clotpoll says:

    grim (34)-

    “He said we couldn’t afford to say no to anyone,” Mr. Andrukonis said.

    That would’ve made a good ad campaign:

    “When Champion says no, Freddie says yes!”

  62. tbw says:

    Re: Vintage homes.

    I have a 1925 sidehall colonial, and I must say these houses are built far better than the new construction houses. Really the main problem is the electrical, lots of cloth wiring to replace, but aside from that they are solid houses.

  63. Clotpoll says:

    patient (48)-

    Yeah. And look how Charlie Brown turned out.

  64. njpatient says:

    34 grim

    “Those and other choices initially paid off for Mr. Syron, who has collected more than $38 million in compensation since 2003.”

    I other words, in ignoring his chief risk officer’s warnings, he was behaving completely rationally.

  65. Fiddy Cents on the Dollar says:

    Some of those “re-modeled” vintage homes are a real travesty.

    It reminds me of the city of Charleston SC after Hurricane Hugo blew through. There was so much damage to the homes that hundreds of so-called craftsmen descended on that fair city like a plague of locusts. Some of these wood-butchers had no more tools than a hatchet and a cross-cut hand saw.

    There are a few homes in Charleston that are still undoing the damage caused by these bunglers.

  66. NJGator says:

    31 Twice – (Or any other Brigadooners out there) – Just curious – how long is your train commute door to door on the RVL? I’m particularly interested in times to Midtown. How onerous is the transfer?

  67. Seneca says:



    Try this link to get to photos. Then you can just track back to the agency home page and search “Clark” as the town in Union County. I don’t think they have any other Clark listing.

  68. NJGator says:

    61 – NJP – How long does the bus take to get to the PA? What time of morning do you normally leave?

  69. Clotpoll says:

    Frank (54)-

    I think your difficulty is that you are the least popular person here.

    However, you fall into a special category with bi, Tard and Jamil.


  70. SG says:

    I wonder whatever happened to Duck’s house in Cliffside Park. Last I remember he increased the price to about $780K or so. Anyone with MLS access?

  71. njpatient says:

    “Yeah. And look how Charlie Brown turned out.”

    That was my point. Immediately after saying “if I grit my teeth and try REALLY hard, I CAN’T fail,” he strikes out.

    That strip was about the fundamental unfairness of life, and about the bills of goods that we are so often sold (among other things – Schultz was a genius).

  72. Stu says:

    I live in a 1923 colonial and have done most of the upgrading myself. The cloth insulated wires are fine as long as you don’t touch them much. Best bet is to just extend with Romex from the old wire terminus. Now the plumbing, on the other hand, is the real problem. Galvanized steel is a pain to work with and I seem to have to deal with a leak about once per year. I cut a section out of a drain in the basement ceiling and I’m surprised any water got through it whatsoever. It was pretty much filled with silt. Best investment an old homeowner can make is a cursory knowledge in plumbing and a good snake.

  73. njpatient says:

    “I think your difficulty is that you are the least popular person here.

    However, you fall into a special category with bi, Tard and Jamil.”

    Speaking of “special”, it takes a special sort of person to constantly hang out where they’re disliked.

  74. SG says:

    Kind of visiting back. Can anyone tell whatever happened to this house?


  75. tbw says:

    I guess I am lucky…no plumbing problems yet..

  76. #34 – Wow, that NYT article is something else.
    The old grey lady helping to setup the scapegoat before FRE even officially collapses.

  77. C Dawg says:

    While we’re on the topic, can I reassert my argument that realtors add little to no value to real estate transactions? Just like the little people wearing colored vests at the NYSE.

  78. Stu says:

    About the cloth insulated wires.

    It seems that code in the 1920’s called for routing all wire in flexible steel conduits. This is great for not accidentally cutting through circuits when future remodeling is performed, but it is a complete curse when it comes to short circuits. The smallest fray in that cloth insulation and you are pretty much guaranteed a problem. Anyone else have the medal conduits everywhere?

    Additionally, found some wool insulation when redoing a bathroom. Of course, all that was left of it was the wrapper as the insulation itself completely disintegrated over the years. I never knew there was such thing as wool insulation.

  79. John says:

    When the time comes, there is always Depends.

    tbw Says:
    August 5th, 2008 at 9:54 am
    I guess I am lucky…no plumbing problems yet..

  80. Secondary Market says:


    i’d have to say that i’m yet to meet a realtor that has impressed me. granted, i’ve never met grim or clot yet.

  81. SteveTheBrigadoonian says:

    RE: #67 NJGator

    My commute is at least 60+ min, usually more like 80 min. Walk to the train station, ride to newark, switch to path. ride to wtc, walk to 2wfc.

    I used to work on 18th ave. so took the njt train to penn station. was still 80 min. sometimes over 90 min if things don’t go well.

    If everything goes perfectly and I get express trains, and jog home from the train station, I can do it in 65 min.

  82. Rich In NNJ says:

    SG (79),

    The price was changed to $739,000 on 4/5/2008 and withdrawn on 7/8/2008.

  83. Clotpoll says:


    That’s ok. You’re not adding anything to this thread, either.

  84. Stu says:

    The anti-realtor threads are really annoying.

    Let me know when you buy a home without one OK?

  85. Essex says:

    Here is my contribution to the thread:


    For some reason this makes me laugh hard.

  86. Tom says:


    Thanks for the link. I’m not looking to buy, but I’ve been a fan of This Old House since I was a kid and I always wanted to do something on they scale they did.

    That’s a nice looking house. I love that it has the original, wide plank floors. It sounds weird, but all those imperfections and the buildup of finish just feels really good to walk on barefoot in my opinion.

    Lots of big thick moulding throughout that would be very expensive to duplicate today. Unfortunately a lot of it is painted in colors I don’t like. In my opinion, trim should either be stained or painted white most of the time.

    The kitchen on the other hand, I’m not too crazy about. Looks like they remodeled in the mid to late 80’s and then recently painted the cabinets and changed the hardware, replaced the counters, sink, tabletop and backsplash.

    That’s not so bad to do but I don’t like the layout. I prefer the sink to be in front of a window. The upper and base cabinets don’t seem to match. I wouldn’t be surprised if they base cabs were original to the house and they added the uppers recently. It really bugs me how high they mounted the uppers on the left wall. Not only are they too far above the countertop, but the tops don’t line up with the other uppers. Don’t understand why there’s no hood over the stovetop and don’t get me started on it being electric :)

    On the plus side, I’d guess that the renovations were made by the current owners over the years that they lived there and probably not someone buying it to flip it quickly. So I’d guess it’s fairly well maintained by someone that respected the house. At least that’s my take from looking at the photos.

  87. skep-tic says:


    A grim forecast for heating costs
    Report warns that average 2009 oil bill for Mass. household could top $3,000
    Erin Ailworth
    Globe Staff / August 4, 2008


  88. Clotpoll says:

    I’ve found that the more my clients’ annoyance with me increases, the better I’m doing my job.

    My only job these days is telling people inconvenient things that they’d rather not hear.

  89. bi says:

    84#, acctually, you don’t need a realtor when you buy a home. you can go to listing agent directly and maybe you can cut off a few grand. but if the time is more important for you, you need an agent to sell your house.

  90. Clotpoll says:

    bi (89)-

    Please share with us your successes in this regard.

  91. twice shy says:

    re: Westfield commute

    NJP, the bus is fine if you like it. My wife is the commuter and always found a bunch of noisy, talkative regulars who kept yacking while she tried to work.

    She takes the 5:16AM train, well off-peak, which eliminates many of the crowding issues. Coming home she’ll usually find a seat, at least from NWK Penn to Westfield. Commute time is about 50 minutes to NY Penn from Westfield if all goes well. Where you go from there is additional, obviously.

  92. Joey Lawrence says:

    I’m a lawyer, and, while I try not to overestimate my importance in a given transaction, I believe lawyers add value to transactions by “working out the details” and protecting their client’s interests. Accountants add value by minimizing tax liabilities and through other comparable services.

    What value to realtors add to a home purchase? Showing the prospective buyer what’s available? This is only feasible because of realtor’s stranglehold on the MLS and market information. Protection of the buyer’s/seller’s interests? That could be handled by the lawyers. Negotiation? Why involve a middle man? Holding the buyer/seller’s hand through the process? Nice, but not necessary.

    The ultimate answer is the one realtors don’t want to hear: they don’t add that much value, certainly not 6% ($18k+ in this market).

    If you went to buy a new car, and someone offered to hold your hand through the process for 6% of the purchase price (say $1,500 for a $25,000 car), you would wonder how they get any business.

  93. Rich In NNJ says:

    Washinton Township FUTURE Comp Killer!

    SOLD: 378 FERN ST $740,000 6/23/2006

    MLS#: 2833515 (subject to bank approval)
    Orig List: $769,000 5/29/2007
    Last List: $705,000 8/1/2008

  94. Nom Deplume says:

    [49] NJP

    Was referring to the amount over asking that a POS split in Summit went for this spring. We bid 10K over. We were OUTBID by 111K, and the house sold for 121K OVER asking price.

    I quipped that the outbid was more than your bonus (and if it isn’t, don’t tell me b/c that would hurt just a bit too much right now).

  95. Nom Deplume says:

    [91] 2xshy

    Didn’t go well last night. Train crapped out just before Cranford and coasted into the station. Whole lotta people calling the spouses for pickups in Cranford.

    Some regulars call the RVL the Rodney Dangerfield Line.

  96. Rich In NNJ says:

    Park Ridge FUTURE Comp Killer!

    SOLD: 150 FREMONT AVE $610,000 11/16/2005

    Orig List: $729,000 4/30/2007
    Last List:$529,900 8/5/2008

  97. HEHEHE says:

    Not sure if this was posted yesterday?

    A Glut of One-Bedroom Apartments


  98. HEHEHE says:


    The federal investigation into mortgage fraud at IndyMac Federal Bank has expanded into the company’s Homebuilder Division, according to a bank executive interviewed by the FBI and FDIC.


  99. Nom Deplume says:

    [86] Tom,

    Also a big fan of TOH, going back to when it was regularly hosted by fellow UMass alumnus Norm Abram (72).

    I was a weird kid—TOH and Galloping Gourmet on PBS were two of my favorite shows. On the plus side, I could outcook my girlfriends and fix things better than their dads.

  100. bi says:

    90#, during home inspection, you can always find something more than sellers want to fix. at that time, it is easier to ask a dual agent to give up a few grand to get deal done than asking your own agent. when i bought a home, the agent did give up 0.5% on her commision. this was show on closing document.

  101. njpatient says:

    94 Nom

    Lovely weather we’re having today.

  102. Nom Deplume says:

    [98] HEHEHE

    Interesting story, and one that brings back memories.

    In law school, I interned for a joint DOJ-FBI-FDIC working group called the New England Bank Fraud Task Force. There was a similar task force in Texas. Working for that task force helped me land a clerkship, and later a job for a prestigious DC law firm. Worst background check I ever went through (no body cavity check but pretty damn close!)

    Now FDIC-FBI talking to Indymac. What goes around comes around. I suppose we will be seeing RTC and Recoll being created anew before long (if they haven’t already). And FIRREA is still on the books, just lurking offshore . . . .

  103. Nom Deplume says:

    [101] NJP

    You suck. Kicking myself for blowing off that recruiter.

  104. Fiddy Cents on the Dollar says:

    Joey :92

    The realtor doesn’t get the full 6% and that’s the high end of the commision scale these days.

    Buyer’s Office and Seller’s Office usually split 5% ($15K on $300K house). The Office Mgr gets a cut, and of course Jim Weichert or Diane Turton or Gloria Nillson get 1% right off the top. That leaves about $3K to the agents.

    just sayin’

    Also, you’re new car buying analogy doesn’t quite apply here. You usually don’t need an agent to show you where to find the new cars for sale.

  105. chicagofinance says:

    FYI from Morningstar….someone was creaming their pants about this fund a few months ago….

    CGM Focus CGMFX

    Manager Ken Heebner’s concentrated portfolio and willingness to bet big on hot sectors may have gotten this fund more mentions in this column than any other. Well, you can add another reason to the list: Heebner’s frenetic trading style. Turnover reached an all-time high in 2007, climbing to 384%, the equivalent of buying and selling the entire portfolio nearly four times in a single year. Not surprisingly, his fund paid the highest percentage of its average net assets to commissions of any fund in the Morningstar 500 last year, at 0.53%. Before you buy this fund, consider that the wild performance swings that stem from Heebner’s approach should probably weigh heavier in your thinking than costs. This one should account for only a sliver of a diversified portfolio, if any. Brandywine BRWIX and Brandywine Blue BLUEX Bill D’Alonzo and his crew look for stocks that can beat quarterly earnings expectations, a short-term focused strategy that leads to high turnover, though it’s far from Heebner territory. (It was 162% for Brandywine and 182% for Brandywine Blue last year.) As a result, brokerage commissions as a percentage of average net assets weighed in at 0.47% for the former and 0.33% for the latter for the year ended May 15, 2007. Some of those costs can be attributed to soft-dollars agreements, in which fund shareholders overpay on commissions in exchange for research. Still, we have confidence in management’s intensive research process. Deep analysis and a quest for moderate valuations have led to topflight returns.

  106. jcer says:

    Stu, your best bet with old galvanized plumbing is to get rid of it and run a new pex manifold system from your water supply. You could probably find a plumber to do it for less than 10k, or you could do it yourself for 2500. Electrical is the same, rip it out and put in a modern distribution system, circuit breakers, romex wire, etc. Again probably less than 20k. If you plan to live in your house a while it is worth it for piece of mind. It’s funny during the boom I looked at properties and all it was, was granite, tile, kitchens, baths, then you ask the questions when was the wiring installed amperage etc., when is the plumbing from and almost always they didn’t know or it was not redone. To me that is important stuff and can potentially be a big problem. If your house was built in the 20’s you are due based on the life expectancy of plumbing and electrical for a redo. On another note older homes are constructed way better than newer ones because the attitude was it was being built to last and additionally without engineers and cad the builders framed things very strong, I was looking at a row house from the 1870’s and the floor joists were 12 on center and were 4×12, also not pine. So beams more than twice as strong as the modern standard and 125% the number of joists as a modern home. Properly maintained wood has a life of 200-300 years so the fact that it was constructed with more care, more materials and better materials it should still be better than a modern home. Plumbing and electrical on the otherhand have befitted tremendously from plastics. Today we build a home to last 50 years, a hundred years ago it was built to last forever.

  107. HEHEHE says:


    It begs the question, where were these agencies, or whichever one is in charge of investigating the fraud, BEFORE the collapse.

  108. Tom says:


    Sounds like me but how can you leave out The Frugal Gourmet!?!?!

    The claims of sexually harassment ended it for him but watching his shows is probably how I learned how to cook.

    Thought it was the best cooking show out there. None of the shows out there now are even watchable except maybe Good Eats.

  109. lostinny says:

    The Frugal Gourmet was accused of sexual harassment? No way!
    I like to watch Paula Deen. I just call her the heart attack lady.

  110. skep-tic says:


    Nom– was your work related to Joe Mollicone?

  111. Joey Lawrence says:

    104 – Fiddy:

    I hear you, but that doesn’t mean realtors’ fees are justified. I don’t collect anywhere near 100% of what I bill, but that fact doesn’t enhance or diminish the value of my services.

    And the new car analogy does work. What if they passed a law saying only a select group of people could have access to information on where new cars were located (assuming you couldn’t just find one at a dealership, the obvious answer), but that you had to pay someone for access to that information. Well that would be quite silly, wouldn’t it?

    The government needs to step in and liberate access to housing market information. While people will never buy and sell houses on ebay, this transition away from the traditional model is necessary.

  112. willwork4beer says:

    109 lostinny

    The price tag for settling sexual abuse charges against Jeff Smith, public television’s “Frugal Gourmet,” was nearly $5 million, according to court documents.

    Terms of the settlement, which were not disclosed at the time it was reached in July, were confirmed by Ed Winskill, Smith’s attorney, according to the Oregonian newspaper in Portland.

    Smith agreed to the settlement just before a civil trial was to begin in July in which seven men alleged that Smith sexually molested them. Most of the men were teenage employees of his from 1973 and 1981.


  113. Tom says:


    Here’s the story on Jeff Smith. By the way, he also passed away in 2004.

    I can’t remember everything from the shows but it formed a good basis. I still make omelettes the way he showed. Every time I put a pan on the stove I think to myself “hot pan cold oil food won’t stick”.

  114. bairen john says:

    Back in 2001 I was walking down Greenwich St past Tribecca Grill. I look over and see Bobby Flay sittin at an outdoor table. Now he is one pompous MF. We make eye contact and I yell out “Hey Emerill, Emerill, kick it up a notch”. Ol Bobby turned redder than a tomato and gave me this real dirty look.

  115. willwork4beer says:

    101 njpatient

    If I wasn’t already taken, I’d accept.

    Yikes. :)

  116. John says:

    Hey that actually reminds me of the time I was in a nightclub and Rod Stewart was in town, he came in around 2am after the show with his bodyguards and I jumped in front of him and yelled “seven ounces Rod: his bodyguard did not like it at all.

    bairen john Says:
    August 5th, 2008 at 10:54 am
    Back in 2001 I was walking down Greenwich St past Tribecca Grill. I look over and see Bobby Flay sittin at an outdoor table. Now he is one pompous MF. We make eye contact and I yell out “Hey Emerill, Emerill, kick it up a notch”. Ol Bobby turned redder than a tomato and gave me this real dirty look.

  117. skep-tic says:

    best food network personality is giada de laurentiis. whoever her husband is must be one happy dude

    but of all the cooks on that channel only mario batali I think has real talent. most of them cook things that anyone could cook if they had the right ingredients. batali is actually creative

  118. make money says:


    I agree 100%. It’s just a matter of time before they get phased out. ala travel agents, car insurance agents, etc.

    A Clot like RE agents can and do add value however they’re so few and far inbetween that it’s pointless argument and if you really need advise if you should buy now or rent for a while then wouldn’t it make sense to talk to a financial advisor instead of someone who has a two week certificate and a few year of sales experience.

  119. lostinny says:

    112, 113
    Thanks for the articles. I really had no idea about any of that.

  120. grim says:

    I’m a big Alton Brown fan.

    What geek isn’t?

  121. Fiddy Cents on the Dollar says:

    Joey, I’m with you on the fees…in most cases just the $3K in our example would be excessive.

    No fair, passing laws to make the new car example work;-) If you think of it, the RE market should work the same as the car market. Full internet access to car (house) features, virtually transparent price structure, and a standard contract that is easily understood by all parties.

    When they make the MLS data public access….we will be taking a step in the right direction.

  122. tbw says:

    I don’t really like Rachel Ray, but every dish my wife has made from her cookbook has been excellent.

  123. lostinny says:

    114 Bairen
    I watch his show and I can see what a pompous ass he is. How does he keep his wife? I forget her name but she played one of the ADA’s on Law & Order- I think SVU.
    I think Giada has a great personality but I’m not impressed with her food. To tell you the truth, I don’t think I’ve been impressed with anyone’s food on that channel for a while.
    And please don’t mention Rachel Ray. I truly believe there is something very off with her.

  124. grim says:

    Second to AB would be Martin Yan from PBS.

  125. willwork4beer says:

    120 Grim

    I love Alton. He’s kinda like the Mr. Wizard or Bill Nye the Science Guy of the kitchen.

  126. bairen says:

    #120 grim

    He’s like the McGyver of the kitchen.

    Have you seen “The Food Detective” I think it’s called. Stars the chef form Qweer Eye. I think it’s on the Food netwrok at 9 tonight. Just started a week or 2 ago. It’s like Mythbusters meets Good Eats.

  127. Nom Deplume says:

    [108] Tom,

    That was after I started watching other things, so I never got much into Frugal. Shame about the charges; kind of a New Age priest scandal.

    I did follow Mr. Food at the end of newscasts because the tips were short and to the point. Ooooh, it’s so good. He is still around but got real thin, so you gotta wonder.

    [110] Skep,

    Name isn’t familiar. Truthfully, I can’t recall the names of any cases I worked on. In fact, I mostly did research and ground out memos on things having little to do with banking, but more on discovery, sentencing guidelines, etc.

  128. lostinny says:

    124 Grim
    I agree. I used to really like him. I still wish I had his knife skills.

  129. Nom Deplume says:

    The NJ Real Estate, Vintage Home Repair, and Cooking Report.

  130. bairen says:

    #123 lost,

    I don’t understand it either. Maybe iron clad prenup? :)

    Then again, I had this little dweeby professor who was on his third marriage. He told me I looked shocked when he announced that. Being not too smooth I blurted out “I’m surprised you found 3 women to date you, let alone marry you.”

  131. kettle1 says:

    all i can think of when ever i hear the name rachel ray is ray ray the highschool retarded kid. not PC but there it is!

  132. willwork4beer says:


    re 126/127

    We have GOT to get together for a beer. (Yes, it can be an Aussie beer)


  133. bts says:

    She doesn’t cook, but my favorite is Padma Lakshmi.


  134. lostinny says:

    131 Bairen
    ahaahh You said that out loud? Awesome!
    I think there’s a difference though. Bobby Flay isn’t a bad looking guy or a nerdy/dweeby guy. He’s an a$$hole. I think you can get past looks when someone has a great personality. But an a$$hole just ruins it no matter how good looking.

  135. Doyle says:


    I refer to Giada as the Queen of Cleave… Have you ever seen her on the tube without a substantial amount of cleavage jiggling around while she kneads dough??? Maybe the occasional tight sweater, but that’s about it.

    I’m a big fan of Diners, Drive-ins and Dives.

  136. skep-tic says:

    Agree that Giada isn’t an amazing cook, just good, but she is also a fox, which is pretty unusual for chefs. I do often think when I watch her show that she should watch out for grease splatters with those low cut shirts she’s fond of.

    I think Alton Brown is interesting to a degree, but I’m really not that interested in the chemistry of cooking, just in how the food tastes in the end. But I can see why people like him.

    Mario Batali actually looks like a pig and I think he would be a blast to hang out with. I heard him once say that he spends New Year’s Day every year making like 1,000 homemade sausages. Kind of disgusting and awesome at the same time.

  137. lostinny says:

    I still don’t see what her purpose is on the show aside from eye candy.

  138. bts says:

    No other purpose necessary.

  139. Nom Deplume says:

    [108] HE

    Those agencies were all phased out after their mandates ran out. Besides, they were not preventative agencies, but punitive/ameliorative in focus.

    The existing agencies were supposed to prevent problems, which isn’t to say that they weren’t trying, but guys like me (okay, really the partners) were well paid to get them to agree that trust preferred should be Tier 1 capital, and this bank merger won’t result in less low income lending, and etc.

    IMHO, the focus of the regulators, which is driven by legislation, was to encourage home ownership. This led to overemphasis on CRA and low income lending, and the regulators constantly backed the banks over the community groups who, although indirectly, were raising the alarm about unsustainable debt in the LMI communities (but who still wanted all the lending options). Whatever their focus, they did warn about subprime and predatory lending, though the credit crisis was beyond the comprehension of most everyone. Really cannot say more (as Patient well understands).

  140. lostinny says:

    Do you know what that scar is on her arm? I’ve never been able to find that out.

  141. Doyle says:

    #136, sorry Bairen, that was for Skep.

  142. bts says:

    I think it was a car accident.

  143. Nicholas says:

    I had a RE agent try to justify the commissions because according to her she had to pay “daycare, health insurance, and taxes”. She had 2 years of experience and was making 90,000 a year.

    My response? News flash sweetheart, we ALL pay taxes, don’t use that as an excuse as to why your salary is justified.

    Then I went into short lesson on salaries and wages. Your salary is determined by your POSITION, not by you, your good looks, your winning smile, your education level or how much your broker takes from you. It may be hard to accept but thats the truth of it. Your position sets the bar for how much you should make. Your skill in that position varies the end result.

    I may be a supermodel with Phd’s covering the wall but if I am a cashier at a fast food restaurant I am going to make near minimum wage.

    Home prices in the Washington DC area (Prince Georges County) went up by 187% during the bubble. If you were a 6’er selling RE, and making 45,000$ a year at the time then you would be making 129,000$ a year at the peak of the bubble for doing the same amount of work.

    Change your starting salary however you wish and the result is still the same. 60,000$ a year goes to 172,000$ and so on. Reality is that bar that was paying your position has completely gone haywire. In my opinion value/price ratio for RE agent services has tipped into the red.

    The complications are yours to figure out.

  144. willwork4beer says:

    137 skep-tic

    I’d like to hand out with Anthony Bourdain (No Reservations). Just rooting for the home team, he grew up in Leonia and did an hour long program on Jersey eats.

  145. jcer says:

    Mario Batali is so extremely pig like and fat that he must be a good cook, never trust a thin chef. I have worked in the kitchen of a fine dining establishment and let me tell you, trust me there is no way to avoid grazing. If the food you are cooking is really that good you’re eating it. Giada is very attractive and knows that it is what sells, I am sure she is a fine cook but if she gains 25 pounds her career is done so she makes sure it doesn’t happen.

  146. willwork4beer says:

    hand = hang

    doh! (head slap)

  147. skep-tic says:

    Bobby Flay is almost identical to one of my best friends who is from Strong Island and is in fact an @sshole to everyone he doesn’t already know

    Rachael Ray has positioned herself as the everywoman in the kitchen, which is pretty smart. She’s not a great cook, not great looking or thin, just pretty average all around. I think women like her because she doesn’t make them feel inadequate.

  148. bairen says:

    #141 lostinny,

    She was in a car accident as a teen. She said the scar was actually her big break since some famous photgapher did her first big shoot because of the scar.

  149. SG says:

    Greenspan says more banks, institutions may founder

    LONDON (Reuters) – More banks and financial institutions are likely to face insolvency and need bailouts before the global financial crisis is over, according to former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan.

    Writing in the Financial Times, Greenspan called the current crisis — which started a year ago — a once or twice in a century event and said insolvency would only end once U.S. house prices stabilized, underpinning mortgage-backed securities.

    Until then, the threat of collapse among banks and other global financial institutions would persist.

  150. bairen says:


    Sounds good. Are you going to I.O.U.S.A on 8/21?

  151. bairen says:

    #145 willwork

    I think Bourdain and Batalia would be cool to hang out with.

  152. skep-tic says:


    “Anthony Bourdain (No Reservations).”

    I would also like to hang out with that guy. No Reservations is currently my favorite show on TV

  153. willwork4beer says:


    Would love to but cannot. As it has become my usual practice, I’ll withhold my feeble excuse.

  154. Tom says:

    Yan Can Cook and So Can You!

    I loved it when he had other chinese chef’s on the show. He was always happy and goofey sounding when he spoke in English. But when he would talk to the other chef in chinese he sounded like a drill sergeant.

    I group the current cooking shows into two main categories. Those that want to show off how good they cook, and those that show you how to make things. Few shows show you how to cook. Same with the new home improvement shows. Except for Hammered with John and Jimmy Diresta. They got a guy that knows what he’s doing and a guy to make the show entertaining, unlike the other shows that try and get someone that is mediocre at both.

    I think that’s why I like Good Eats. He doesn’t give you a recipe and say this is how you do it. He tells you why things happen like they do. But I agree with skep-tic that sometimes he goes overboard. I don’t need to see a 3 minute sketch with sock puppets to learn how to bake bread.

    Goes back to something to a previous discussion on here about some people can follow directions and some people can think on their own. The new shows seem to cater to the follow directions crowd. “Just gimme a list of what to buy and when to mix it in.”

    Giada’s show is a cooking show?

  155. chicagofinance says:

    There is a good quote in here….

    “…sometimes kids may make decisions carelessly because it is fashionable…”


  156. lostinny says:

    Thanks for the info guys.

  157. twice shy says:

    I had a bid accepted last week. 2 days into A/R seller changes mind, cancels the contract and pulls the listing.

    In this market? WTF? You dump a pre-approved 20% DP buyer with no property to sell because now you don’t want to move after all? I wasted most of last week on the deal. Oh well. Back to the hunt. Or not.

  158. tbw says:

    Barefoot Contessa is AWESOME!

  159. Doyle says:

    “Giada’s show is a cooking show?”

    Nope, soft-core p*rn.

  160. PGC says:

    “I am sure she is a fine cook but if she gains 25 pounds her career is done so she makes sure it doesn’t happen.”

    At that point she just morphs into Nigella.

  161. lostinny says:

    I know a lot of people say don’t trust a skinny cook. But honestly, I don’t want to be as big as Mario or Ina Garten (Barefoot Contessa). I will say though, that when my brother was living in New Orleans and working at a certain restaurant, he put on a good 20 or 30 pounds. Grazing may not be such a good idea when heavy cream sauces are involved.

  162. Tom says:

    “Giada’s show is a cooking show?”

    Nope, soft-core p*rn.

    Too bad you can’t hear boobs jiggling on tv. Would encourage more people to watch it with the mute button off.

  163. skep-tic says:

    Aug. 5 (Bloomberg) — Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, likely to leave interest rates unchanged today, may need to sound tougher on inflation to avert the sharpest public disagreement among policy makers in more than a decade.

    The fastest inflation in 17 years adds to the risk that three members of the Federal Open Market Committee will dissent for the first time since 1992.

  164. frank says:

    The bursting of the housing bubble should not be construed to be entirely negative – it has plenty of positives that the media does not even bother to report:

    1. Property taxes and insurance are lowered since property value drops, thus more discretionary spending power.

    2. New home buyers don’t have to pay exorbitant prices, thus lower monthly mortgage payments and more consumer spending on other things.

    3. American consumers are still in good shape. Many of those people who bought homes at the peak never put down any money. They did not lose that much either.

    Despite all the drawbacks, free market capitalism works. Recession is healthy and essential. It cleans up the system, takes out the cyclical white elephants. The bursting of the housing bubble will make homes much more affordable. That’s a very positive thing. During the 80’s, oil prices crashed, 9 out of top 10 banks in Texas either went under or got bought. The U.S. economy survived and thrived afterwards. The money American consumers saved from oil was spent on other things.

    It’s not much different this time, home prices will continue drop; therefore, American consumers will spend much less money on housing than they did during the bubble years. The money they saved from lower housing will get spent on something else. The beauty of American capitalism is that the Free Market has this self-correct mechanism.

    If you are still not convinced, just answer this question: are lower energy prices good or bad for the American economy? If your answer is yes, then the next question will have to be yes too: Are lower costs associated with owning a home a good or bad thing?

    Sure some banks and some people might get hurt because of some price drops, but lowering the cost of things (including homes) will eventually be a very positive thing for American consumers and the overall economy.


  165. Jamey says:

    Just out of curiosity, how many people here use bicycle travel as their primary home-to-work commuting mode?

    A few more questions (for a blog series I’m proposing):

    How many travel across the River Hudson?

    If you are within reasonable cyclo-commuting distance, but use other modes of transit, why?

    What would possibly induce you to commute by bicycle?


    (And Nigella Lawson is a goddess.)

  166. John says:

    4D Part Three

    So back in late 80’s one of my buddies was a backup center on NC State who played the other center in practice vs. Michael Jordon and garbage time, he was after graduation the campaign manager for a big big shot in the republican machine and was hosting a big campaign party in a huge suite on the top of the Marriot Marquis. We got invited to show our support and was told to wear our best suit, watch and tie and tell them we are registered republicans from LI and our BSDs from Wall Street and be prepared for lot of handshaking. Well basically I emptied every cocktail glass in the joint talked a lot about politics and when the party ended we were going clubbing and my buddy got to keep the keys to the room till morning. My stupid buddy brought a back up ho from wyndanch, I was like whats up with that, he said all b-ball players have a back-up booty-call home-girl in pocket when they go trolling as a back-up plan in case they don’t get jiggy with a new suga mamma. So me and my crew including, brother, friend, the big guy and his anchor head out to either 4d or Xenons. Strech Limo downfront is bugging us to give us a ride, I tell him I am only going two blocks and guy says $20 bucks. Two seconds later we are in front of Xenons and the line was around the corner and there was a $20 dollar cover, huge at the time. Well I hop out first of the stretch limo lift the valet rope and open the door and walk right in as if I owned the place while the bouncers jaws were on the ground. Right behing my tail was my 6ft 8in 300 hundred pound wing man, my 6:4 brother and my 6:2 friend all in suits with the booty call girl trying to keep up looking all the part of the tramp that does our dirty work. Anyhow as soon as i threw open the double doors with a bang everyone in the front of the club got a look at me with my posse on my tail and my stretch limo chauffer scampering to close the door of my limo. As quick as can an amazing hot perfect ten black girl with a crop top, long hair tight black pants with the zipper up the back and high heels grabs my arm and announces to the bouncers and anyone else who can hear “he’s with me”, my brother grabs her friend and we head to the couches where the little people and studio G’s scamper out of our way to make room for us. After around two drinks I tell my new friend this place is nice but I had my man over there book me the most expensive suite at the top of the nearby Marriot and I have a fully stocked bar so lets get out of here. To my suprise the the guy from NC state with his ho follows along and we head to the Marriot. Loved the looks I got in the lobby from the bell hops who either admired me or wanted to kill me as I was thirling the best girl they every saw in their life on my arm and ordering a huge man around. So we get to the huge room with floor to ceiling picture windows and we draw the blinds and kill the lights and let the view of times square soak in while my friend was in the other room with his skank. Well I tell her I will be back in a minute as I have to go to the bathroom and as soon as I hit the head I hear some whispering and then I hear the girl yell out to the big guy “I only date white men so you better get back in your room with your little LI Ho”. So that guy was playing along to two time me or at least play “we all switch places when I ring the bell”. I tell her don’t worry about him I will fire him in the morning. In fact I tell her we need to make some noise. So we open up the pull out couch and start getting jiggy when all at once she say let me hit the music and I will dance for you. So there I am in bed and she is doing my own person show, that girl did not need a pole. Anyhow we get busy loud, nasty and freestyle to teach my man a lesson and make him jealous before I fire him in the morning. So far a good night. Then she gets all serious with me and tells me to meet her at Bentleys the next night which is like some upscale ethnic club where everyone wore suits and showed off their mint new used Reedmen Mercedes with 150K on the odometer. I was like what? Is she going all legit on me when I am looking for straight up gangsta? I tossed her out of their and said yea maybe bentley’s I see, you just keep an eye out for me. Not that would be too hard as I would be the only guy my color there. I stopped talking to “my man” many years ago on advise of legal counsel after another incident, but that is another story.

  167. Sean says:

    re: (152) He is trying hard is a desperate effort to salvage his ‘legacy’ bullshit spewing globalist liar that he is.

    I for one won’t speak his name anymore. As Peter Schiff said recently, if we had a deck of cards for the housing/credit debacle like they did for the Iraq War, he would be the Ace of Spades.

  168. lostinny says:

    I do not bike to work as I no longer own one and have nowhere to store it.
    Also, I commute over the Verrazano Bridge and there is no biking allowed. I believe I am 5-7 miles from work and I think it is a reasonable distance for commuting by bicycle if it were allowed.

  169. skep-tic says:

    As things stand currently, the only way I would commute by bicycle would be if I lived within a couple of miles of where I work and if there was a safe bike lane. When I was in law school I rode a bike for a few months (I lived about 1.5 miles from campus), but ultimately gave it up for the bus because it was too cold in the winter and drivers do not respect people on bikes

  170. PGC says:

    #166 Frank

    Ummm No.

    1) Property taxes and insurance increase to meet the shortfall from dropping property prices and realty transfer taxes.

    2) New home buyers get squeezed as they have to come up with 20% down payment as PMI is no longer available for the 10% crowd.

    3) Many people did not buy or sell at all anywhere near the peak. They are getting hammered by Inflation, rising food prices and the dollar in the toilet killing the job market.

  171. frank says:

    “I think your difficulty is that you are the least popular person here.”

    Is this a popularity contest or a RE blog?

  172. NJLifer says:

    166 Frank –

    “1. Property taxes and insurance are lowered since property value drops, thus more discretionary spending power.”

    Do you smoke crack? The towns just up the ratio on your property bill. I’ve never seen property taxes go down, ever!!!

  173. make money says:

    Anyone catch John Tain last night on CNBC with Maria Bartiromo explaining the sale of the subprime CDO’s and stating that MER is aduaquately capitalized as of today and there may be more writedowns coming.

    This guy should clearly have to do some time.


    part one

    part two

  174. Nom Deplume says:

    [170] skep

    sounds like me. were you in LS in Boston?

  175. Tom says:

    Regarding real estate agents…

    I tend to agree that many people don’t need them and that there are more of them out there than need be. Slowly MLS is being opened up and now anyone can search properties without a realtor. The local NJ listings don’t show addresses and eventually I think that’s going to have to change.

    Since the mid 90’s a lot of people entered the game and feel entitled to keep making the money they were making even though they may not be good at their jobs. Even a complete idiot could have made a killing as an agent during the type of boom we’ve seen.

    Those people are going to have to start finding other work as there are fewer sales and they’re going to be expected to earn their money.

    Hopefully the ones left behind will be good ones with experience and know what they’re doing. They’ll add value to their clients instead of holding the keys to the listings.

  176. kettle1 says:

    If i can point to one of the numerous charts we have discussed before:

    we are currently at the first peak in arm resets, the 2nd peak doesnt occur until 2010/2011. 2009 could be the eye of the storm.

    If the system cannot be repaired until the garbage has been cleared out then there is no hiding from the second peak. If banks are in trouble now, then what happens when a second wave of defaults hits just after a potential calm in 2009 as banks try to recover?

  177. Everything's 'boken says:

    re bike commute
    I bike to the train. I would ride to Manhattan if there was a bike path along the RR right-of-way and a safe bike tunnel. I used to ride 6 mi. in a bike-friendly city.

  178. Sean says:

    re: #165 skep-tic – The Europeans are screaming at us right now, Trichet edged up its key interest rate to 4.25 percent from 4 percent just a few weeks ago, Bergabe could care less about 12%+ real inflation here since raising the rate here would strengthen the dollar and hurt exports and also would not allow for his banker buddies to rebuild ther balance sheets quickly.

    Bergabe is not for a strong dollar and should be removed from office.

  179. kettle1 says:

    also notice that PRIME arms dont start to hit until 2010

  180. Old Stan says:

    I have looked into a bicycle commute but the deal-breaker is that I would sweat too much and need a shower and a change of clothes once I got to work.

    I did find a very nice-looking commuter bicycle that could go on the train and I could take into the office:


  181. Tom says:


    Here’s a chart showing the break down of origination of primary mortgages that tells the backstory to the chart you posted


  182. Orion says:

    re: Fannie & Freddie

    This sob and others should return their salaries to taxpayers.
    They blame it on Congress, or the shareholders or whatever, as long as you get to take home millions. I hate cockroaches.

    From NY Times:


  183. Nom Deplume says:

    [180] Old

    Belong to a gym downtown? You can bike to, use the shower, commute to office, and reverse in the evening. Only issue is clothing.

    In DC, we had a sweet setup. Building had a locked bike room in a secure garage, so we had triple security (lock to rack, in locked room, in locked garage), and the office had its own gym. My clothes went to the dry cleaner downstairs and back (for 2 years, they never left the building).

    Biking was the only exercise I got with my scheduled., and it came in very handy on 9/11.

  184. skep-tic says:

    didn’t go to law school in boston, but I can’t imagine commuting by bike there. might as well smash your pelvis with a sledgehammer and get it over with.

    I’ve actually never been anywhere in the U.S. that seemed friendly to bikers. I’ve heard Boulder is, but I’ve never been there. It is really interesting to go to places like the Netherlands and see bike lanes not only in cities but also alongside highways in the country. I tend not to be in the “Europe is always better” crowd, but in this respect, I think we could learn a lot

  185. make money says:

    I was re-reading Schiffs book last night and the SOB not only predicted that Fannie and Fredie will implode he also predicted that the fed would bail them out.

    I just hope he’s right about Gold. I have purchased majority in the low to mid eight hundereds and i have around 60% of my total savings in a mint in Australia.

    with the commodities and gold on the decline I tempted to take some of the table but where do I put it in? USD$?

  186. make money says:

    Anyone catch John Tain last night on CNBC with Maria Bartiromo explaining the sale of the subprime CDO’s and stating that MER is aduaquately capitalized as of today and there may be more writedowns coming.

  187. chicagofinance says:

    make money Says:
    August 5th, 2008 at 12:31 pm
    I was re-reading Schiffs book last night and the SOB not only predicted that Fannie and Fredie will implode he also predicted that the fed would bail them out.

    I just hope he’s right about Gold. I have purchased majority in the low to mid eight hundereds and i have around 60% of my total savings in a mint in Australia.

    with the commodities and gold on the decline I tempted to take some of the table but where do I put it in? USD$?

    albani: take your eyes off the portfolio….it will get over-engineered and you will f— it up…I am not on the same page as clot, bost and you, but you guys own my a%% for the 1H08. Congrats!

  188. chicagofinance says:

    I give you castration and you give me silence?

  189. Nom Deplume says:

    Here is a tale of how hinky bank u/w departments are getting.

    The u/w are questioning sources of funds because I made large deposits. Yes, that’s right. I moved money into higher yielding accounts while waiting to close and they questioned it. I replied to the broker “and their problem is what?”

    Really says something when the bank questions the fact that you can pay at closing and have put the cash aside to do it. Weird.

    BTW, I told the broker if the bank wanted to hold the cash, they could. All they had to do was give me 4% interest.

  190. Jamey says:

    Thanks all for the feedback about bike commuting. (Keep it coming, please.)

    Old Stan: I commute on a BikeFriday: http://www.bikefriday.com/node/1591?styleId=

    Simply an amazing bike. Cannot say enough good about BikeFriday.

  191. Tom says:


    “I’ve actually never been anywhere in the U.S. that seemed friendly to bikers. I’ve heard Boulder is, but I’ve never been there. It is really interesting to go to places like the Netherlands and see bike lanes not only in cities but also alongside highways in the country.”

    I agree completely. That’s why dutch girls have such great legs!

  192. Nom Deplume says:

    [183] skep

    Funny you should say that as that almost happened to me when I was in h.s., north of boston. I got hit by a car (doddering old man that had 4 accidents in one day. I was number 3)If I wasn’t 16 and in good shape, who knows.

    DC was actually very good for bike commuting from as far out as Bethesda and McLean, and I commuted from McLean and Arlington. Lots of bike paths on the Potomac, and with the Mall and Ellipse, I used very few streets in DC.

  193. chicagofinance says:

    BTW – clot is a chef first/agent second…no cooking discussion on this blog is complete without his say….

    At the GTG in Morristown I asked him to which restaurant would he travel within a 30 minute radius of his house, and he said honestly that it wasn’t worth it to leave……that includes the prep and service at the restaurant!

  194. ben says:

    rofl, who woulda guessed that reinvestor hates Peter Schiff? Schiff makes his clients money while Wall St. has been pissing all their clients money away. Schiff doesn’t hate America, he wants to fix America.

  195. make money says:


    I’m trying to engineer anything. I’m one hard headed SOB and my mind is already made up. But I keep hearing all this trader talk of taking some profit off the table and I’m thinking of ringing the cash register a little. I’m highly concetrated in Gold if wrong then it’s gonna hurt.

  196. bi says:

    here is my prediction today. dow will erase 90% of its gain after 2:15 pm

  197. Jamey says:


    Bike-friendly cities:

    Davis, CA. The stat is hazy in my mind, but I think one in four gets around by bike.

    Portland, OR is the HPV Valhalla of these United States. Problem is, the cyclists are of the “fringie” variety, and can get quite self-righteous about their hemp-wearing, carbon-neutral ways (qv: CriticalMass and the reactions thereto). I wish cycling could an extension to a way of life, rather than a lifestyle; “transparent,” like in Amsterdam or Copenhagen. But that would require infrastructure. And infrastructure requires activism. And that activism often comes from people whose nose- and tongue-piercings set off airport screening metal detectors…

  198. grim says:

    I give you castration and you give me silence?

    I think a moment of silence is appropriate here. Poor testicles, they never did anything to hurt anyone.

  199. bairen says:

    #193 chifi

    That’s pretty much how I fell about my area. There’s a few decent Asian places, but that’s about it.

    Although I did try Isabella’s American Bistro in Brigadoon this weekend and really liked it.

  200. Essex says:

    Lou Dobbs’ Enviable Taxation

    Lou Dobbs earns a reported $6 million a year from CNN. How does he spend it? Some of it goes toward the property taxes for the 270 acres of land he and his wife own in Wantage, New Jersey. Just how much of his income goes to the local government? A whopping $1,793.27, or $6.64 per acre.

  201. John says:

    Just for fun, 1980s NJ,NJ,LI club list, I left parts of my liver and most of my wallet in a few of the clubs on the list.

    007 Franklin Square, NY
    1018 New York City, NY
    Adam’s Apple 1117 First Ave. (61st St.) NY NY
    Area New York, NY
    Beggar’s Opera Queens,New York
    Berlin NYC, NY
    Big City Diner N.Y., NY
    The Birch Hill Old Bridge NJ
    “CATACOMBS Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
    Channel 80 New York, NY
    City Gardens Trenton, N.J.
    Close Encounters Morgan , NJ
    Club 12 Asbury Park, NJ
    Club Quintessence Fairlawn, NJ
    Dancerteria New York, NY
    Dancin’s Leonia, NJ
    Electric Playground Trenton, NJ
    Feathers River Edge, NJ
    Foxes Jersey City, NJ
    HammerHeads New York, Islip
    Heartbeat 106/107 North, Long Island
    Ice Palace New York City, New York
    Infinity New York, New York
    L’amour Brooklyn Brooklyn, NY
    LimeLight New York, NY
    Malibu Malibu Beach NY
    Maxx’s Kansas City New York City
    MK New York, NY
    Motionz Irivington, NJ
    Mud Club New York City
    The Palladium N.Y., NY
    Paradise Garage New York, NY
    Paris, New York Huntington NY
    The Peppermint Lounge New York City, NY
    Raritan Manor Bridgewater, NJ
    The Red Zone NYC
    The Ritz New York City
    Rosleand NY, NY
    SHOUT NYC, Midtown 40’s West Side
    Soul Kitchen New York, NY
    The Sound Factory N.y., NY
    Speaks Island Park, NY
    SPIT Levittown, NY
    Spize Framingdale, NY
    Studio 54 New York, NY
    Thrush Long Island, NY
    Tunnel New York, NY
    The Underground New York, NY
    The Union Jack South River, NJ
    The Wave Staten Island, NY
    The World NY, NY
    IXanadu Asbury Park, NJ
    Xenon New York, NY
    Zappa’s Brooklyn, NY
    Zodiac New York,NY

  202. njpatient says:

    163 lost

    “when my brother was living in New Orleans and working at a certain restaurant”

    piqued my curiosity

  203. njpatient says:

    166 frank

    “The bursting of the housing bubble should not be construed to be entirely negative – it has plenty of positives”

    I agree wholeheartedly.

  204. lostinny says:

    Don’t think I can mention it. Do the initials PC from a well known family sound familiar? If not, email me.

  205. reinvestor X says:


    It is time to rein these sorts of people in. They should be given a choice of shutting the hell up or revoking their citizenship.

    make money Says:
    August 5th, 2008 at 12:31 pm
    I was re-reading Schiffs book last night and the SOB not only predicted that Fannie and Fredie will implode he also predicted that the fed would bail them out.

    I just hope he’s right about Gold. I have purchased majority in the low to mid eight hundereds and i have around 60% of my total savings in a mint in Australia.

    with the commodities and gold on the decline I tempted to take some of the table but where do I put it in? USD$?

  206. njpatient says:

    198 bairen

    “Although I did try Isabella’s American Bistro in Brigadoon this weekend and really liked it.”

    I like that place. Lime, which is next door, is very good as well.

  207. njpatient says:

    199 sx

    “Lou Dobbs earns a reported $6 million a year from CNN. ”

    That CAN’T be true!! He told me he’s a blue collar guy just like me and he understands how hard it is to put food on my children!

  208. BC Bob says:


    At one time, I actually thought you were funny. You have progressed, you are an outright joke. Your posts are becoming tiring, tedious and uninteresting.

    Pick yourself up off the ground, brush off those footprints, put your j-strap on and get back in the game.

  209. chicagofinance says:

    bairen Says:
    August 5th, 2008 at 12:56 pm
    #193 chifi That’s pretty much how I fell about my area. There’s a few decent Asian places, but that’s about it. Although I did try Isabella’s American Bistro in Brigadoon this weekend and really liked it.

    bairen-it-all: I think clot’s point was that he was capable of producing better with his own ingredients, toolZ and skillZ….

  210. grim says:

    From the Star Ledger:

    Pharmacopeia to cut staff by 40 percent

    Pharmacopeia this morning said it will lay off 64 workers, or 40 percent of its staff.

    The job reductions at the Princeton biotech are in addition to an earlier 15 percent cut in May.

    “This decision is extremely difficult but necessary as it will allow us to better focus on our strategic initiatives,” interim chief executive Joseph Mollica said in a statement. “We are grateful to our talented staff who have helped the company meet recent milestones.”

    Sixty of the staff members will leave the payroll in October, the other four will be gone by Dec. 4, the company said in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Pharmacopeia also plans to take a $3 million charge in the third quarter in connection with the downsizing.

  211. chicagofinance says:

    grim Says:
    August 5th, 2008 at 12:56 pm
    Poor testicles, they never did anything to hurt anyone.

    grim: after reading certain posts here, I would beg to disagree….

  212. skep-tic says:

    Do people still wear j-straps? one of the most ridiculous looking garments of all time, surely

  213. chicagofinance says:

    skep-tic Says:
    August 5th, 2008 at 1:21 pm
    Do people still wear j-straps?

    #1 are you a guy?
    #2 do you play sports?
    #3 have you ever had your world rocked?

  214. BC Bob says:

    “Do people still wear j-straps?”


    Yes, if you have any b#lls and run up and down the court.

  215. Stu says:

    “here is my prediction today. dow will erase 90% of its gain after 2:15 pm”

    Aww krap. Time to sell my short positions.

  216. Tom says:

    “how hard it is to put food on my children”

    That was too good!

  217. Stu says:


    I play ice hockey. The thought of taking a puck at 90mph into the groin seals the deal for me.

  218. chicagofinance says:

    My worst experience was probably in high school. Late afternoon in the hallway, nobody around. A guy I knew saw me down the hall and snuck arouund the corner waiting for me to get there. He got a running start and fired a Spaldeen as hard as he could figuring he would hit me in the leg or stomache, but he hit one of the onions flush…..

  219. bairen says:

    #208 chifi

    I cook better than most restaurants too, both asian and western.

  220. lostinny says:

    This blog is headed for a cook off.

  221. njpatient says:

    212 chi
    Knocked unconscious playing keeper. Cracked cup.

  222. Clotpoll says:

    Joey (93)-

    Your analogy- and the reasoning that follows it- is 10th grade. How did you pass the bar?

  223. njpatient says:

    “This blog is headed for a cook off.”

    I’ll join. I’m not bad either. Maybe Mrs. Deplume will let us in her kitchen.

  224. kettle1 says:

    from automatic earth,


    Last month closed with some far from comforting news about the state of the US housing market (sales and prices still falling), US financial institutions (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in need of rescue), Australian banks (NAB’s 90% write-down of its US CDO portfolio).

    Then ABS figures showed that retail sales had fallen “unexpectedly” by one percent in June. The recent rally in stock markets came to a sudden end, and after a brief period of renewed confidence, the question “how much worse can “It” get?” is once again doing the rounds.

    My answer is: a lot worse. The empirical grounds for this assessment are:

    * The ratio of asset prices to consumer prices–or the inflation-adjusted asset price index;
    * The ratio of private debt to GDP; and
    * Japan

    In short, global asset markets have a lot further to fall, and a serious recession–the worst we have experienced since the Great Depression–is inevitable. Let’s first look at what the recent drop in retail sales implies for the economy.

    The USA: Double Bubble
    While the Dow has fallen substantially in the last year, its inflation-adjusted value is still three times its long-term average, and more than 4 times its average prior to the start of this bubble. Even if the index falls merely to its long term average, it still has another 62% to go (in real terms) from its current level. If it reverts to its pre-bubble average, it has another 73% to go.

    Figure 1

    If those figures seem ludicrously pessimistic and unrealistic to you, take a look below at the CPI-adjusted Nikkei–which fell 82% from its peak at the end of 1989 to its low in 2003. At the time, most commentators blamed Japan’s Bubble Economy and subsequent financial crisis on the opaque and anti-competitive nature of its financial system.

    We were assured that nothing so ridiculous could happen in the transparent, competitive and well-regulated US financial system. Yeah, right.

    Figure 2

    The story for the US housing market is little better. The index has already fallen 23% from its peak in 2006. A reversion to the long term mean implies a further 38% fall in the average house price in America; while reversion to the pre-Bubble mean implies a further 41% fall.

    Write-downs by US financial institutions certainly haven’t yet factored in that degree of possible fall in housing values, and as Wilson Sy, the cheif economist at APRA, pointed out recently in two brilliant research papers (1 2), the banks’ “stress test” modeling greatly under-emphasizes the impact of such asset price falls on their financial viability. House price falls in the USA are far from over, and likewise “unexpected” write-downs by US financial institutions.

    Figure 3

    Overall, if US markets fall back to their pre-Bubble levels, the stock market will plunge about 80% from its peak (much the same degree of fall as applied in Japan) and the housing market will fall 55% (rather more than happened in Japan, where average house prices fell 44%–but less than Tokyo, where they fell over 70%).

    The unique feature of this US asset bubble is that it affects both stocks and houses. There have been three Stock Market Bubbles in the USA in the last century: the “usual suspects” of the 1920s and 1980’s, but also one that doesn’t normally rate a mention: a ’60s Bubble that peaked in 1966, and was followed by a slump that only ended in mid-1982 (see Figure 6).

    As Figure 6 indicates, this dual bubble has no precedent. Not only is it a bubble in both asset markets, both bubbles dwarf anything previously experienced. Even the great Roaring Twenties stock market bubble barely pokes its head above the long term average, compared to the 2000s Stock Market bubble–and in the 1920s, as Figure 4 shows, the housing market was relatively undervalued. The over-valuation of today’s housing market far exceeds the now comparatively minor bubble when Keating (Charles, not Paul) was on the loose in the USA.

    Figure 4

    While the Australian Stock Market is not as severely overvalued as the American, it is still substantially over its long term trend. Even after the recent falls, the inflation-adjusted All Ordinaries Index exceeds its level before Black Tuesday in 1987. It has another 30% to go before it will have reverted to the mean of the last 25 years (see Figure 5).

    Figure 5

    The prognosis for the Australian housing market is substantially worse. Even on short term data–covering only the last 22 years–the market could fall 40% if it reverted to the mean, and 50% if it reverted to the pre-bubble mean. Nigel Stapledon’s research into long term house prices in Australia–which is not shown here–implies an even greater potential for a fall in house prices.

    Figure 6

    Of course, such talk can seem nonsensical and alarmist. Especially if you ignore what happened in Japan.

    Japan: the world’s most recent debt-deflation
    Japan clearly underwent a debt-deflation after its “Bubble Economy” spectacularly burst in 1990. In its aftermath, house prices across Japan fell on average by 42%, and by over 70% in Tokyo (though they have since recovered slightly).

    Figure 7

    Figure 8

    What has happened there can happen in Australia, the USA, and the rest of the OECD–especially since our Bubbles, while smaller than the Tokyo bubble, are larger than that for Japan as a whole (see Figure 9).

  225. Clotpoll says:

    lost (110)-

    Paula Deen is a shoemaker.

  226. grim says:

    This blog is headed for a cook off.

    I’m in.

  227. grim says:

    Going to try this recipe later today:


    But I’ll break out the good stuff to do it, the Valrhona Grand Cru.

  228. Clotpoll says:

    lost (135)-

    Flay and I ran in the same circles & had a lot of mutual friends back in the day. Waaay back.

    He is a bigger douche than you can possibly imagine. Just a flaming, unrepentant a$$hole.

    And if you think my opinion is bad, talk to any woman in NYC who knows him, other than his current wife or his mom.

  229. kettle1 says:

    sorry for the long post

  230. bi says:

    #214, are you going to cut SRS and run for good?

    “here is my prediction today. dow will erase 90% of its gain after 2:15 pm”

    Aww krap. Time to sell my short positions.

  231. njpatient says:

    229 bi

    “for good”?????

    Since when do you take such a long view?

  232. Clotpoll says:

    skep (137)-

    Mario is somebody I spent a fair amount of time hanging out with after work. This goes back to when he was the dorky guy in shorts who had just opened Po.

    He can drink more tequila than anyone I have ever met. Spent many nights plumbing the depths @ Billy’s in Chelsea. A great guy. Also 10x the cook anyone suspects he is. He has the chops of Boulud, Bouley, etc, but I think the Food TV thing causes him to keep it under wraps.

  233. bairen says:

    #219 lostinny Says:
    August 5th, 2008 at 1:27 pm
    This blog is headed for a cook off.

    I’m in.

  234. twice shy says:

    Many of us active investors, including the big hedge funds, were working the “short financial/long commodity” trade the first half of this year, which outperformed through June.

    July shows signs of that trade reversing, and I’m starting to take on water in my trading account.

    Consequently, I am diversifying into other sectors, taking profits where available and limiting losses to around 8% if possible.

    A lopsided metals position has always been risky. More so now, I’d say, as it’s a volatile sector. We may still see gold back over $1,000 again, but it could be a bumpy ride getting there.

  235. bi says:

    should we legalize robbery?

    “A windfall profits tax on big oil to give families a thousand-dollar rebate,” an announcer in the ad says.

  236. Stu says:

    229 bi:

    Run for good?

    I have another large buy in at 82.50.

    I’ll run for good at Dow 12,500 or below 10,000.

    One up day in the market and bi is convinced everything is better.

  237. Mike NJ says:


    I am at Malibu at Lido Beach every weekend. I will look for any remnants of your liver this Saturday!

  238. skep-tic says:

    I am a guy and did play sports in high school and did rock the j-strap, but I assumed by now the kids had moved onto those “compression” shorts instead

  239. Clotpoll says:

    jcer (146)-

    Either you are a Nigella fan or a Giada fan. If you’re a guy, you can’t like both. That’s like being a Mets and Yanks fan at the same time.

  240. Stu says:

    Speaking of cook off. I would need to be there as well. I don’t cook fancy food, but I can make some mean white trash specialties. The Gator is more of the fancy food type. Anything that has more than 8 ingredients is not worth my while.

  241. grim says:

    I’ll throw my vote in for Nigella, by far.

  242. ben says:

    I’ve always known Flay was a jerk. Most of his food network appearances have all been PR to make him look like a good guy. They even did a special to try to improve his reputation after pissing off Morimoto on Iron Chef (TWICE). You could always tell on Food Nation when he didn’t like what he tasted. He would make this god awful face and say “yeah that’s really good”. Now, Throwdown is just a show to improve his image. Basically, it’s designed for him to lose and kiss people’s butts.

  243. Stu says:

    I sometimes where the shorts/sometimes the cup. It depends on which one made it into the wash ;)

  244. lostinny says:

    Ever work at GT?

  245. bi says:

    people start to look at one candidate more carefully. Amazon #1 and #2 are on the negative side.


  246. Stu says:

    where = wear!

  247. skep-tic says:


    also read that Batali learned to cook during a year in which he traveled through Italy reading Faulkner. sounds like a great method and again a very interesting guy

  248. Clotpoll says:

    Nom (188)-

    Some of the cash reserve seasoning requirements lenders are imposing are straight out of 1935. Lots of these lenders are convinced (sometimes rightly) that large deposits into checking right before contracting for a home come from the Bank of Mom & Dad, or other nefarious sources.

  249. lostinny says:

    I’d offer my kitchen for a cook off but you can’t fit more then one person in there at a time, maybe 2.

  250. Clotpoll says:

    lost (246)-

    Nah. Huberts, QG, Andiamo, Ryland Inn and days off at Lespinasse.

  251. BC Bob says:

    “should we legalize robbery?”

    bi [237],

    I guess there’s always a first. I actually agree with you.

  252. Old Stan says:

    According to this chart
    M3 is still growing > 10% per year.
    How does this jibe with fears of deflation and lower commodity prices?

  253. lostinny says:

    Interesting. Fav place?

  254. John says:

    Fla. man dials 911, complains his sandwich had no sauce
    JACKSONVILLE, Fla. (AP) — The sauce for a spicy Italian sandwich was apparently a must have for one Florida man.
    The man, Reginald Peterson, called 911 twice after a sandwich shop left off the sauce.

    Peterson initially called the emergency number Thursday so that officers could have his subs made correctly, according to a police report. The second call was to complain that police officers weren’t arriving fast enough.

    Subway workers told police that Peterson, 42, became belligerent and yelled when they were fixing his order. They locked him out of the store when he left to call police.

    When officers arrived, they tried to calm Peterson and explain the proper use of 911. Those efforts failed, and he was arrested on a charge of making false 911 calls.

  255. Clotpoll says:

    skep (249)-

    Batali really learned how to cook by working for the maniac cokehead Marco-Pierre White (1st Michelin 3-star in England).

  256. Clotpoll says:

    lost (251)-

    Sounds perfect. Once I stab the other person, plenty of room for me. :)

  257. John says:

    I saw Billy Idol and the Thompson twins there back in the day, great place. Had my old 450sl crusining Austin Blvd just last weekend to pick up some lobster to go at Jordans.

    Mike NJ Says:
    August 5th, 2008 at 1:43 pm

    I am at Malibu at Lido Beach every weekend. I will look for any remnants of your liver this Saturday!

  258. lostinny says:

    Nice Clot
    Spoken like a true cook! Now get out my f’in way! :)

  259. John says:

    You sure are fat.

    lostinny Says:
    August 5th, 2008 at 1:50 pm
    I’d offer my kitchen for a cook off but you can’t fit more then one person in there at a time, maybe 2.

  260. still_looking says:

    cook off?

    I’m definitely in.

    love alton brown, vomit on flay, nigella’s great, am smitten with tony bourdain- even despite is past heroin addiction – read kitchen confidential? or the nasty bits?


  261. PGC says:

    One of my favorite food blogs. This lady is cooking her way through the French Laundry cookbook.


  262. lostinny says:

    You’re a douche.

  263. Clotpoll says:

    lost (255)-

    Favorite? Huberts…at its best, before moving onto Park Av (where David Burke is now). Much better than QG ever was.

    Bouley…when Bouley wasn’t in the kitchen. That guy could screw up boiling water. Great chef, no line skills.

    Daniel…anytime, any version. Even the cafe & Bar Boulud are super.

    Italian: Da Silvano and/or Cent’Anni. In 1986, these guys were years ahead of what passes for decent Italian today.

  264. skep-tic says:

    clot– after working in those types of restaurants, did you ever at any point just get altogether sick of fancy food? I can definitely see why so many top cooks get into drugs. It seems like they are constantly in search of more and more intense sensory experiences. But I wonder weather like drugs, one eventually becomes burnt out with respect to food as well.

  265. NJLifer says:

    217- Chicago

    I have you beat. I’m about 12 years old and riding my diamondback bmx bike, thinking I’m the goods. I see a girl I like, so I decide I’m going to show off by popping a wheeley in front of her. Problem is, I have only one hand to do it with, because the week before I had jammed my middle finger playing hoops. I say, what the heck, I can pop wheeley with one hand. I make the attempt, the handlebar, being unevenly lifted turns, and hits me smack in the middle of the family jewels. Let’s just say that the girl was the one that ran to my house to tell my folks that I was lying in the schoolyard crying and couldn’t get up. Now that’s pain!!!

  266. Clotpoll says:

    sl (262)-

    Smack really takes the edge off when you’ve done a lot of blow, and you need to turn a case of artichokes and reduce 10 sauces, pronto.

  267. John says:

    Thanks, it keeps me fresh as a daisy.

    lostinny Says:
    August 5th, 2008 at 2:04 pm
    You’re a douche.

  268. kettle1 says:

    old stan

    inflation vs deflation (from a financial nincompoop)

    assuming housing drops an average of 30% across the board when it is all said and done we are seeing the lose (destruction) of about 6 trillion. add in the defaults on the other types of consumer debt and i have seen estimates of a loss of 10 trillion +.
    Prices can rise while the money supply shrinks, for a while anyway. Inflation would require banks and the government to create more money then is destroyed by the housing and credit collapse.
    You also may need to phrase the question in terms of austrian or chigaco economic terms.

    just my uninformed 2 cents

  269. Stu says:

    “You sure are fat.”

    Classic John. This dude better make a GTG some time soon.

  270. Mike NJ says:


    Went to high school with the Jordan kids. Kevin made “Brooklyn Lobster” a few years ago about his family business. Not a bad flick and it even had your alter ego, Danny Aiello in it!

    Now you got me hungry

  271. John says:

    My favorite places are

    dollar menu mickydee
    any $5 dollar special, subway, quiznos, blimpie
    white castle
    Papya king recession buster
    Yips $4.25 platter
    anything off a cart
    anything a consultant pays for
    cheap pitchers at down the hatch

  272. Clotpoll says:

    skep (266)-

    Not to blow the whistle on myself, but let’s just say the whole drugs thing was part of the kitchen package (especially in the 80’s and early 90’s). Either you moved through the phase, died or went to rehab. I was lucky enough to coast through.

    I never tired of haute cuisine. I think if that sort of challenge isn’t your thing, you know it from the get and don’t ever enter that world. It’s just too much pressure, too little money and too much abuse if you don’t really love it.

    After a while, I think a lot of cooks’ eating preferences do change. All the tasting and re-tasting of super fatty/salty/sweet items drives them to look for ethnic stuff at off hours. I have eaten a lot of goat curry, kimchee, pig heads/ears/snouts and habanero peppers in search of something that packed enough of a punch to register on me.

  273. Stu says:

    down the hatch? First stop for the bridge and tunnel crowd from the PATH.

    Boo Radley’s was cheaper and had pool tables, although no Fooz.

  274. BC Bob says:

    WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) – The Federal Open Market Committee on Tuesday kept its benchmark federal funds rate unchanged at 2.0%. The decision was expected by traders and economists on Wall Street. In its statement, the Fed gave no sign that it plans to change policy in the foreseeable future. There was one dissent from Dallas Fed Richard Fisher, who wanted to hike rates.

  275. Fiddy Cents on the Dollar says:

    I’m casting my vote for Giada. Her cooking skillz are augmented by those suggestive camera angles. She brings some of her grand-daddy Dino’s production values to the show.

  276. John says:

    Danny still has a dumpy place in the city that has amazing wings. You are making me hungry thinking of those wings. Jordans Lobsters are served at Smith and Wollenskis and if you go to Lawson Blvd in oceanside the Whistle Stop Bakery is where they get their cheesecake. Get two lobsters for $20 at Jordans and a $12 dollar cheesecake at Whistle stop and you are a king.

    Mike NJ Says:
    August 5th, 2008 at 2:11 pm

    Went to high school with the Jordan kids. Kevin made “Brooklyn Lobster” a few years ago about his family business. Not a bad flick and it even had your alter ego, Danny Aiello in it!

    Now you got me hungry

  277. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    Fannie Mae to Lift Mortgage Fees, Raising Loan Costs

    Fannie Mae, the largest U.S. mortgage- finance company, will raise a fee that the company charges lenders to buy their mortgages or guarantee home-loan securities, potentially boosting costs for borrowers.

    Fannie Mae’s “adverse market delivery charge” introduced earlier this year for all mortgages that the company helps finance will rise to 0.50 percentage point on Oct. 1, from 0.25 percentage point, according to a letter to lenders posted on the Washington-based company’s Web site.

    Government-chartered Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have been tightening standards and raising fees since last year to boost revenues and limit losses amid the worst housing slump since the 1930s. The changes have made it harder for borrowers to get home financing, contributing to deeper price drops, said consultant David Lykken of Mortgage Banking Solutions in Austin, Texas.

    “Everyone has to go to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac right now, as there’s very few alternatives,” Lykken said in a telephone interview. The latest fee increase will “increase loan prices and the housing market is going to get worse.”

  278. schabadoo says:

    down the hatch?

    During football season with their wing special, it was tough to beat.

  279. Stu says:

    No surprise from FED or Bi:

    No change in rates and market did not drop by 90% as predicted by Bi.

    So who wants to guess what word on the Fed announcement they changed this month?

  280. Stu says:

    DTH wing specials were the bomb! I forgot about them.

  281. Stu says:

    There was a bar in Hoboken that did 25 cent wings next to Benny Tudino’s. They were pretty damn good and you couldn’t beat the price. Used to get about 20 of our friends together for MNF and wipe the place out of wings before the first quarter.

  282. grim says:

    From the FOMC:

    Release Date: August 5, 2008

    The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 2 percent.

    Economic activity expanded in the second quarter, partly reflecting growth in consumer spending and exports. However, labor markets have softened further and financial markets remain under considerable stress. Tight credit conditions, the ongoing housing contraction, and elevated energy prices are likely to weigh on economic growth over the next few quarters. Over time, the substantial easing of monetary policy, combined with ongoing measures to foster market liquidity, should help to promote moderate economic growth.

    Inflation has been high, spurred by the earlier increases in the prices of energy and some other commodities, and some indicators of inflation expectations have been elevated. The Committee expects inflation to moderate later this year and next year, but the inflation outlook remains highly uncertain.

    Although downside risks to growth remain, the upside risks to inflation are also of significant concern to the Committee. The Committee will continue to monitor economic and financial developments and will act as needed to promote sustainable economic growth and price stability.

    Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Frederic S. Mishkin; Sandra Pianalto; Charles I. Plosser; Gary H. Stern; and Kevin M. Warsh. Voting against was Richard W. Fisher, who preferred an increase in the target for the federal funds rate at this meeting.

  283. NJCoast says:

    Cook off- I’ll throw my hat in the ring.

  284. HEHEHE says:


    That Giada weirds me out. That woman’s head is WAY too large for her body.

  285. lostinny says:

    I always thought that about her. I hate to say it but I think she’s really small with a big head.

  286. Rich In NNJ says:

    Wow, I’ve missed a lot.

    Ok, not really.

    Tom (114)

    “hot pan cold oil food won’t stick”
    Unless it’s Teflon because…

    I bet “the geek” knows.


    John (203),

    Feathers River Edge, NJ
    Really? Really? Huh, and all your other “stories” painted you in a different light. Not that there’s anything wrong with that.



  287. Stu says:

    Fisher voted against again! I love that guy!

  288. HEHEHE says:

    Her face is attractive, it’s just her head needs to be placed on a larger body.

  289. schabadoo says:

    There was a bar in Hoboken that did 25 cent wings next to Benny Tudino’s.

    Eighth Street? Long bar with pool tables in back?

  290. Stu says:

    Think so! My memory blows. Definitely had the long bar.

  291. NJGator says:

    Re: Cookoff – I’m in but don’t put it past Stu or I to sneak some mock meat into you.

  292. skep-tic says:

    one thing I wonder is whether the proliferation of weak attempts at fancy food globally has crowded out a lot of what was the inspiration for the fancy food in the first place (i.e., the local/ethnic curiousities). I guess another way to look at it might be that now that there is greater awareness of the breadth of diff’t types of cooking, there is more cross-pollination of styles which opens up more possibilities.

  293. lostinny says:

    You’re a veggie? I’m a veggie but I can’t imagine cooking those things for people who aren’t veggie/vegans.

  294. skep-tic says:

    “That Giada weirds me out. That woman’s head is WAY too large for her body.”

    I kind of dig it. She’s like one of those characters in the Steve Madden ads from a few years ago.

  295. NJGator says:

    295 Lost – Yes, I am a veggie. Stu and I only met because of his “false” claims to be one, so I like to tell people our whole relationship is based on a lie : )

    I don’t usually trick non-veggies, but some of my proudest culinary moments involve tricking my meat and potatoes dad into eating some vegan peanut butter mousse made with tofu. He now happily eats tacos made with Morningstar Farms fake meat and will even eat a Trader Joe’s meatless meatball or two.

    I promise not to trick anyone from the blog into eating soy…but I might need to make some of Candle Cafe’s Seitan Chimichurri…it really is that good.

  296. BC Bob says:

    “Cook off- I’ll throw my hat in the ring.”

    NJC [285],

    I throw my betting $ into that hat. NJCoast will take home the prize.

  297. Stu says:

    Back when I was a much stricter vegetarian, I made a chili with the fake ground beef that won a pot luck dinner best recipe where I used to work. As I accepted the prize, I let the group know that they ate tofu-based chili. Lucky for me, no one was soy-intolerant! The looks on their faces were indescribable.

    The only way to get a meat-eater to eat mock meat is to not tell them. The second you let them know ahead of time, they’ll be bitchin’ and moanin’ about how bad it tastes.

    And to protect my manhood, I now eat meat on occasion. ;)

  298. Stu says:

    So bi’s black box continues to work to perfection.

  299. lostinny says:

    Gator and Stu
    Maybe we can trade some recipes. Among other things, I want to make a veggie meatloaf but the closest DH will get is turkey meatloaf.

  300. randy says:

    someone explain to me how this stock market makes sense?

    oil/gold/commodities are selling off based on the lack of demand due to a global economic recession… yet the market sees this correction in commodities as a reason to bid up consumer discretionary and financials… even though the recession is going to hammer their earnings for the next 6-18 months minimum?

    another great short opportunity setting up… SKF/GLD always on the watch list.

  301. Stu says:

    A veggie meat loaf is daring. I would steer clear of that one. Any place where texture is key is where mock meat tends to fail. Plus ground beef and ketchup is strange enough already. Throw soy into the mix and you are definitely asking for trouble.

  302. NJGator says:

    Definitely, Lost. You may get my email from Grim. I have never made a meatloaf perse, but Stu can complain ad infinitum about the amount of vegetarian cookbooks I own!

  303. Stu says:


    I’m dying to get into gold, but just not yet. Would like to see it in the low 800s first. The delayed agony created by our FED is going to hurt way too many.

    Disclaimer: I am a professional wrestler.

  304. kettle1 says:


    i hope bi’s employer compensates him appropriately for having such an accurate black box.
    May be he should be shopping around and see what he can get from GS of one of the other big boys

  305. chicagofinance says:

    schabadoo Says:
    August 5th, 2008 at 2:36 pm
    There was a bar in Hoboken that did 25 cent wings next to Benny Tudino’s.
    Eighth Street? Long bar with pool tables in back?

    I think it would be Dipper’s or whatever is in that location now…..up by 8th Street would be Margueritas…

  306. Stu says:

    NJGator has more cookbooks than I thought there were recipes in this world.

  307. PGC says:

    #305 Stu,

    “Disclaimer: I am a professional wrestler.”

    So what happened your website?


  308. grim says:



  309. Fiddy Cents on the Dollar says:

    Re: Giada

    She’ll fill out, like all Italian women do eventually.

    The only question is…..does she stop at a reasonable weight for her hat size.

    Or does she go all the way up to 280lbs???

  310. skep-tic says:

    “Re: Giada

    She’ll fill out, like all Italian women do eventually.”

    As my wife is Italian, I pray this is a myth. Although, she did ask me the other day, “At what age do you think we’ll get fat?” I said never. This morning I jumped rope for 30 minutes in the living room at 6:00AM to show her that I am not joking. I am not sure if she got the point.

  311. make money says:

    Kettle [270]

    We are increasing our money supply at the annual rate of 16% without the Fanny and Freddy bailout and without the FDIC rescue that looming.

    10 trillion when it’s all said and done sounds about right. Since it’s not politically feasible to aloow peopel to loose money and bankruptsies to loom the street then we must print it. It’s what Merrill did issue stock to raise capital to cover the losses. We will dilute our currency by issuing new one.


  312. NJGator says:

    Stu won’t let me show you what his real talent is. But, if he drinks enough at the next GTG, maybe you can persuade him to spill the beans.

  313. bi says:

    so far my prediction is wrong again. people are selling commodity and buyging financials. SKF up $10 a day.

  314. Tom says:


    I haven’t tested out baking soda on crabgrass yet, but I can tell you vinegar sprayed on carpetweed really kills it! In less than 24 hours the little green specs, that I was too lazy to pull, have turned into little grey specs :) There were some other larger ones that died off too.I’m going to try the vinegar again on the crabgrass and see if that helps.

    Know of anything that kills creeping charlie?

  315. Stu says:

    ChiFi: It was not one of those two you mentioned. It was a storefront or two South of Benny’s. I checked Google’s street view and it might be where that Greek place now is.

  316. make money says:


    Can this VOLT really save GM?

  317. kettle1 says:


    I dont necessarily discount that there could be a move to the AMERO in certain circumstances.

  318. Stu says:

    Creeping charlie? Never had it, but Borax might work. I tend to leave my weeds be.

    Anyone else having trouble getting their tomatoes to turn red? My cherry tomatoes are kicking, but my full size tomatoes have been green for like 40 days. Bad gardening year this year. I think it’s from the heavy, but infrequent rains.

  319. make money says:

    so far my prediction is wrong again.

    I can’t believe I didn’t take th eother side. Bummer!

  320. make money says:

    319 Kettle,

    I hear you. But my friend we disagree inthe inflation and deflation scenerio.

    You think it’s Deflation while I’m betting everything I have on Inflation.

  321. make money says:

    con’t from above

    Amero scenerio increases in odds only if our Dollar is worthless and in that case it has to be inflation.

    See what I’m saying.

  322. Stu says:

    Energy solution? Have CNG cars that plug into the NG lines in your home. Out goes our reliance on the arabs and a mass improvement to our environment. All we would need is a cheap efficient machine to compress the NG in the home. I know there are a few out there and I have passed a few NG civics on the road, but it seems like a pretty decent short-term solution. Sure seems to beat drilling offshore for a tiny quantity of sludge. Kettle1?

  323. John says:

    Never trust a veggie in leather shoes.

  324. Stu says:

    And I know that NG is much more prevalent in the Northeast than in the rest of our country.

  325. Tom says:


    Creeping charlie, aka ground ivy. Pulls out easily in the beds but can’t get it out of the lawn. Borax looks like it will work.

    Some tomatoes did fine, a little bit further down not so good. Think it might be blight or some other fungus. The conditions we had this summer were perfect for it. Read 1 part milk to 9 parts water is a good foliar spray for tomatoes and fights the fungus if sprayed once a week. The calcium is also good for them. A solution of baking soda also works supposedly. I broke down and used daconil but it might be too late for some of them.

  326. John says:

    The fed funds futures market shows a 26% chance that the Fed will raise rates to 2.25%, at its next meeting on Sept. 16. Just before the Fed’s decision was released, the chance was 34%.
    There’s currently a 26% probability of a second interest-rate increase, to 2.50%, at the Fed’s Oct. 28-29 meeting, compared to 32% earlier.

  327. make money says:

    Energy solution? Have CNG cars that plug into the NG lines in your home. Out goes our reliance on the arabs and a mass improvement to our environment. All we would need is a cheap efficient machine to compress the NG in the home. I know there are a few out there and I have passed a few NG civics on the road, but it seems like a pretty decent short-term solution. Sure seems to beat drilling offshore for a tiny quantity of sludge. Kettle1

    Welcome to Pickens plan.

  328. Stu says:

    I know it’s Picken’s plan and it makes a whole lot more sense than corn or wind power.

  329. lostinny says:

    314 Gator
    That sounds like a private conversation. :)
    I’ll get your email from Grim.

  330. bi says:

    321, make, are u going to sue schiff for gold $2000 book? down $22 today

  331. randy says:

    it just doesn’t make any sense. commodities are selling off in large part because American’s by and large will no longer have the financial wherewithal to consume them gluttonously.

    well then they’re not going to be consuming a whole lot of anything in that case!! schizo market!! it doesn’t help the solvency of banks much! if anything, banks have been betting on a continuation of the commodities boom and are taking a beating on this sell-off, just like everything else they’ve done in the past 18 months!

  332. kettle1 says:


    all joking aside i am truley a financial novice compared to most of the big dogs on this board. And while i have my own opinions i have no allusion as to how shallow in the pool i have ventured.

    you may be 100% correct about inflation. but i think at this point we will have to agree to disagree.
    I understand your point about inflation needed to spark an AMERO event but from what i have read and understand i see deflation winning out. However, that does not preclude a burst of consumer price inflation while the actual money supply continues to decrease, once again from what i understand we start to get into austrian vs chicago ideas here.

    I am always open to convincing opposing arguments!


  333. Stu says:


    Where do you see the Dow by Friday?

  334. NJGator says:

    330 Lost – I assure you it is totally rated PG, and is in fact out there waiting for you to find, if only you are resourceful enough to look!

  335. make money says:


    I hear you. For mine and my daughters sake I hope I’m right.

  336. Nom Deplume says:

    [208] NJP, Barien

    Went to Mojave Grill next door last week. Food was good but service sucked. Mrs. Deplume made a point to discuss it with Mgr, who was apologetic but took a “whaddya want me to do about it?” attitude.

  337. lostinny says:

    I am intrigued. Stu what is this talent? Can you do the choreography from the Michael Jackson Thriller video?

  338. Stu says:

    I will never reveal my secret, except maybe if I lose a bad bar bet. Unfortunately, that never happens ;)

  339. bairen says:


    I’ll have to give lime a try.

    Nom – lousy service in a restaurant is another peeve of mine. Isabella’s had good service. Plus the 5 waitresses were very good looking. (I made sure not to point that out to my wife.)

  340. ben says:

    If we go through hyperinflation, I wonder if that guy who wrote the Dow 36,000 book will be screaming he was right all along.

  341. make money says:

    321, make, are u going to sue schiff for gold $2000 book? down $22 today


    MY EuroPac portfolio is up 8.5% YTD when priced back into USD. DOW is down 20% and your financialls are down at least 50%.

    Today is probably it’s lowest that has been since I started with Europac in early 2007.

  342. Nom Deplume says:

    [250] clot,

    thanks for explaining. Irony was that this was $$$ moved out of checking so as to earn a better return. I didn’t need it to close.

    And mom and dad are hitting me up for money, not the other way around.

  343. make money says:

    If we go through hyperinflation, I wonder if that guy who wrote the Dow 36,000 book will be screaming he was right all along.

    That GUY is an economic advisor to Mccein

  344. Stu says:

    Bi: You were only slightly wrong. You predicted a drop of 180 points on the Dow and ended up with an increase of 115. I’ll be laughing my *ss off if the dow closes at 11,665. Watch for it!

  345. kettle1 says:


    I think pickens presentation of wind+NG has several aspects to it. The first is that if he tries to sell a massive wind/alternative energy that excludes fossil fuels he gets a lot more blow back from certain entrenched groups as opposed to including them in some manner. Its a sort of divide and conquer. a second is the divide and conquer. Currently most renewables are considered non base load sources ( sources that provide a steady stream of predictable energy output). if setup properly renewables can provide base load, but it is going to take someone proving this before it will be accepted. By tieing wind and NG together pickens can give everyone the warm and fuzzy since NG is there for baseload while the wind is just for peak. But in reality he can prove that wind and/or other renewables can provide baseload, you just need different logistics and power managment.

    this is a combination of fact and supposition from what i have read of pickens plans.

    the NG in every car answer is next…..

  346. Nom Deplume says:

    [285] Cook Off?

    It occurs to me that the Brigadoon GTG would be a good venue for the judging.

    Problem is that contestants would have to bring dishes that could travel.

  347. randy says:

    if the market keeps rallying this way, the consumer is going to get all confident again and we’re going to have to reconsider the notion that the flagging US economy is going to hurt oil demand.

    i’m reminded of a dog chasing his own tail… very intelligent machinations we’re all watching here !

  348. Stu says:


    Having driven NG forklifts 20 years ago, I always pondered why cars weren’t powered similarly. Good analysis by the way.

    I think we are in very close agreement over our preferred energy policies.

    On another topic, my restaurant pet peeve is paying >$50 per person to eat at a restaurant where the server has to move the table to give you enough room to get to your seat. There is nothing worse than having to listen to your neighbors material BS conversation when you are trying to enjoy your hand fed goose liver tartar with wild raspberry reduction over a bed of organic free range baby bok chow.

    Speaking of the Flay man. I ate at the mesa grill last Friday with the Gator for restaurant week. I was truly unimpressed.

  349. bi says:

    make, stu, clot and all bears:

    honestly, how much did you lose today by percentage?

  350. Stu says:

    Bi: Your black box is astonishing. You nearly called the exact inverse of what happened today. You fell within 36% of reaching your inverse goal. Wow!

  351. reinvestor X says:

    BC Bob, you insult me. You implying that I’m not working hard when I work damn hard.
    Trolling this damn board is not the easier thing to do in the world. I have to work really hard to prepare myself. I have to work on new material every day to get a rise out of someone and you suggest that I need to put a j-strap on?

    Get the hell out of here. First of all, they don’t make a j-strap big enough fit me. Second, I’m hard working and I resent you calling me tiring, tedious and uninteresting.

    Take it back and take it back now.

    BC Bob Says:
    August 5th, 2008 at 1:18 pm

    At one time, I actually thought you were funny. You have progressed, you are an outright joke. Your posts are becoming tiring, tedious and uninteresting.

    Pick yourself up off the ground, brush off those footprints, put your j-strap on and get back in the game.

  352. Cindy says:

    (176) (179) Kettle1 – Re: ARM resets

    My daughter was in that situation. Some borrowers who weren’t necessarily a poor risk ended up with ARMs. She locked into a 5.8% fixed back in December. My hope is that many have made other arrangements so that we won’t necessarily as many write-downs as expected.

    Oregon is set up for cycling. They have something like 250 miles of path in Portland. The busses all have bike racks on the front so many use the combination of bike/busses. Eugene OR as well. I have friends from here who attend “Cycle Oregon” every year. Several days…cooks and entertainment that follow along. I guess it’s a pretty good time.

    Cooking shows – Top Chef – Bravo – I love that show..

  353. Stu says:


    A little over 3% in my brokerage accounts. I still have a very large cash position waiting for the right lower risk opportunity. Now why don’t you ask how much we have made since last Summer and mostly in long term gains?

  354. 3b says:

    $348: randy: The market rallying is going to do absolutely nothing for the over whelming majortiy of consumers. Nor will it prevent the recession.

    The economic fundamentals are still horrible, and will be for quite some time. Oh and the decline in house prices will continue in earnest.

  355. ben says:

    Stu, 2 friends of mine got food poisoning from Mesa Grill last week. Musta been the jalepenos.

  356. Nom Deplume says:

    [340] barien

    good looking waitresses at Isabella’s eh?

    Hmmmmm. Wife said she wanted a night out.

  357. John says:

    Even worse when people get their 3rdQ 401K statements and they have gone up in value and they gas up their car or heating tank and find out it costs less they might take the money saved and buy a GM or Ford car and our economy won’t collaspe Even worse they might buy one of those little saturns that don’t suck fuel and pay for it in cash with no lease. OMG, it is the end of the world. I am off to china the day I see my fellow americans driving an inexpensive US made reliable fuel efficient cars without a loan or lease, our county was built on $700 a month german car leases.

  358. John says:

    I called your wife and she agreed, you have reservations at Lucky Changs this Saturday night and you can take home any of the waitresses you want.

    Nom Deplume Says:
    August 5th, 2008 at 4:08 pm
    [340] barien

    good looking waitresses at Isabella’s eh?

    Hmmmmm. Wife said she wanted a night out.

  359. Stu says:

    “2 friends of mine got food poisoning from Mesa Grill last week. Musta been the jalepenos.”

    Wow, good thing I had the fish and Gator had the relleno. Best part of the meal was the chopped salad. Pretty lame for a place famous for grilling.

  360. Nom Deplume says:

    [359] John

    Funny, I called your wife and asked her if she was still working there.

  361. Stu says:


    I called your wife and she said that you work there John!

  362. chicagofinance says:


  363. Jamey says:


    Never understood the idea of fake meat. But then I’m vegetarian because I don’t particularly like meat.

  364. bairen says:

    #359 john

    In this case, I’d rather not follow in your footsteps.

  365. NJGator says:

    Stu – To be fair, we ordered from the Restaurant Weekend. The Flay Man clearly does not go all out for those of us thrifty enough to order from the cheapskate pre-fixe.

    Now my restaurant week lunch at Artisanal was an entirely different story. Although it is hard to have a bad meal if it includes good wine and great cheese.

  366. Rich In NNJ says:

    Emerson Comp Killer!

    SOLD: 124 ROSS AVE $675,000 8/29/2005

    MLS#: 2822293
    Orig List: $749,900 6/1/2007
    SOLD: $600,000 8/4/2008

  367. kettle1 says:


    NG and cars:

    NG and cars doesnt solve the energy issue.

    chart: http://tinyurl.com/5p7cbu

    A significant portion of the NG coming from the unconventional sources (shale coal beds etc)is being used to simply make up for the decrease in production from the traditional sources.
    Unconventional NG is similar to unconventional oil, in that there is an EROEI discontinuity, they are not 1:1.
    For example the gas beds in Ny state are considered “tight”, meaning that they have to fracture the rock to get the gas out. This means it takes more energy per unit of gas recovered.
    In short unconventional NG is like unconventional oil. On the surface and in the MSM the numbers seem impressive. but when you look at what those numbers mean and what actual recoveries end up being in volume and EROEI terms it a minor to moderate increase at best.
    the other stumbling point in importing NG. If we want to shift our transportation to NG we would have to import a large amount of the stuff. We currently do not have enough LNG (liquid natural Gas) terminals to meet demand. There are current proposals to build several terminals on each coast, but between civic/social issues and general politics these terminals will take a while to materialize. LNG imports are currently a significant bottle neck in NG supply. It is ot unheard of for industrial NG users to get throttled down during demand spikes because of the bottle neck.

    There are no real issues with the actual burning of NG in your car engine, the tech is fairly well known and simple. storage isnt and issue either for cars. The reason you havent seen it is primarily due to industry and to infrastructure. infrastructure was initially geared towards gasoline and that an infrastructure change is usually a chicken/egg problem. Do you sell the cars before you have wide spread NG distribution or do you risk building the distribution first? WWII actually played a big part in locking us into gasoline, but thats another story.

  368. Rich In NNJ says:

    Little Ferry “Slice of Reality”

    SOLD: 23 COLUMBUS AVE $400,000 9/23/2002

    MLS#: 2821420 (REO)
    Orig List: $679,000 5/9/2006
    SOLD: $410,000 8/5/2008

  369. kettle1 says:

    348 randy,

    we will not have to reconsider. America runs on credit. credit card companies have either cut people off or reduced credit lines. Home equity is dead. Americans have negative savings.

    we have spent every penny we have and then some. without a steady stream of credit the US is insolvent, broke. the economy can become as rosy as it wants but unless credit is re-extened to joe sixpack the average person will still be hurting. the situation cannot be fixed until people get out of debt and the US starts producing something of value.
    The service economy is a joke and is doomed to failure. its a simple case of produce or die and selling finanical services doenst count.

  370. Rich In NNJ says:

    Ridgewood Comp Killer!

    SOLD: 341 E GLEN AVE $655,000 10/30/2007

    MLS#: 2820495
    Orig List: $629,000 5/19/2008
    SOLD: $585,000 8/5/2008

  371. Tom says:

    Re: “Slice of Reality”

    Judgment was only $168,345.05

  372. 3b says:

    #369 Rich: So back to the 2002 price on that one. 0 appreciation for 6 years, and with commissions etc, an actual loss.

  373. John says:

    Not any more, one of the “girls” stole my ben waa balls.

    Nom Deplume Says:
    August 5th, 2008 at 4:11 pm
    [359] John

    Funny, I called your wife and asked her if she was still working there.

  374. bairen says:

    #369 Rich

    Wow. back to 2002 prices.
    Maybe we will go back to 1999 or earlier.

  375. kettle1 says:


    another NG chart


  376. 3b says:

    #370 kettle: Agreed. Oh and lets see where the market is by close on Friday, when the reality sets in that the reality is nothing has changed.

    I still stand by my prediction that the Dow will close below 11,000 by year end.

  377. NJGator says:

    Anyone care to guess what a train wreck this place is on the inside? First-hand knowledge would be even better:


    Glen Ridge (Prestigious North End!) 4BR $319K!

    MLS ID# 2549568

  378. Nom Deplume says:

    so to John John:

    I finally figured out who John reminds me of. Back in da day, when I wuz a poor office grunt, and drinking much of my paycheck in Harvard square, I hung out a lot at the Boathouse bar (which is closed now). Had a bumper sticker on the wall that said “no one is ugly at 2 am” and they must have been right, because after the ball went through Buckners legs in the Mets series, I was face down in the bar under Uno’s, depressed as hell, so I went to the boathouse. There were some girls there from BU, and you know how they are. That was the last I remembered, and the next morning, I woke up and did not know where I was. So I look around, see Ms. BU and asked where my clothes were, and got out of there. I didn’t even know where I parked. In fact, I didn’t remember a thing. At least I remembered the temp secretary from Everett that I took there, who turned out to be too young to get in (and that is where knowing the bouncer helps), but that is a story for another day. Anyway, this guy Parker Bennett, who must be John, was a regular there, and loved this drink called a crushed grape, or grape crush, made with chambord. Always buying rounds of them, and hey, free drinks. One night at a party at my house, he was picking on my loafers, and insisted on improving them for me with a butter knife. Parker had a 7 series Beemer convertible, and was always allowed to park it out front. One night, he was gonna give me a ride, but he was too bombed, and told me to take his car and drop his girlfriend off. This chik was smoking hot, so I took off and we drove around Cambridge and Belmont in Parker’s convertible, and hit a couple of bars before going back to her place. Tease was into me but just couldn’t bring herself to cheat on Parker, so I leave with a blue set and bring back Parker’s car because I was just as bombed as he was, and shouldn’t have been driving. I also lived in walking distance to the Boathouse, which helped immensely, especially the time when this girl Ellen at MassPIRG, who I couldn’t deal with all Summer, makes her move at my going-away party. Six months later, I am back in the bar, and who is there but Ellen, so we pick up where we left off. Next morning she says, she has to split, got a wedding to go to. About one year later, I am jogging on the Charles, and who do I see but Ellen and a guy, and she introduces him as her husband. So I am all smiles, talking, we are comparing notes, and I ask how long they were married, and he says one year, and tomorrow is their anniversary. As I am running home, the timing hits me and I said out loud, “no f’ing way.”

  379. kettle1 says:


    did you read this from seeking alpha? The idea seems to be that the central banks of the world will act so save the US dollar. even if the article is accurate i dont see it working long term, there is to much debt and not enough US production capacity.

    The U.S. Dollar: A New Accord

  380. kettle1 says:


    another one for you

    Fisher’s Debt-Deflation Theory of Great Depressions and a possible revision

  381. kettle1 says:


    i expect the SHTF soon after the elections. paulson and friends are doing everything they can to keep things together right now and as soon as the current commander in chimp is out i see them running for the exits; the mess, and damage control will be left to the next guy.

    It should make a nice Xmas present for the US population.

  382. 3b says:

    #383 Agreed.

  383. njpatient says:

    “bi Says:
    August 5th, 2008 at 12:51 pm
    here is my prediction today. dow will erase 90% of its gain after 2:15 pm”

    I must be doing the math wrong, because it appears to have done precisely the opposite.

  384. Clotpoll says:

    bi (350)-

    9%. Will sleep like a baby. Got shorter as the afternoon progressed.

    Typical bear market rally. Smoke and mirrors. Also a lot of short-covering and hedgies blowing up. Show me where the follow-up demand is.

    All disclaimers.

  385. make money says:


    I appreciate the literature but my mind is already made up. Paul Volcker himself can not stop the titanic from sinking.

    I left the titanic in early 2007 in a speedboat and have been resting in the Pacific Ocean on the cost of Australia.

    I’m not even on the water but resting ashore.

    It’s to late to talk about getting back on the ship.

  386. make money says:


    I agree. This is a nice entry point for those who do not own SKF.

  387. njpatient says:

    380 Nom

    Did you work at MassPIRG?

  388. bi says:

    387#, down 9% over portfolio in one day? i would have jumped out window already.

  389. Nom Deplume says:

    more John deplume

    So Parker, Andy, Chet, John (not our John) a bunch of girls, and Parkers younger brother, who was Steve, I think, and he was the calm one that always had to be responsible for Parker, but it was really starting to piss him off, we spent the entire summer at the Boathouse, with the occasional sojourn to the Hong Kong, the Bow and Arrow, Grendel’s, George V (before it got turned into a HOB) and the Ha’Penny pub before it got torn down. I liked the Ha’penny since it was a slightly smaller and cleaner version of the Bow and I didn’t have to walk so far. One night this girl comes in, and I never did call her after meeting her at the boathouse, so she is a bit cool, and John asks if I was still in play, and I said yes, so he backed off, and we went back to her place in Belmont. Parker always disapproved of everyone else’s lays except for hhis brother’s fiance (which was smart because Steve was ready to kill him), and he gave me some grief for going home with her but not much, which passed for approval from Parker. I got a lot worse from the bartenders at Uno’s for Lana, that nurse from Philadelphia, who was damn cute but they pegged her for a cougar well before I got there since she decided to come to cambridge and hang out and didn’t have a place to stay for the night, and since someone stole my coat, she volunteered to give me a ride home. Lot more subtle than that older woman at the Acropolis with the hawaiian name, who wanted me to fly back with her to L.A. that night, but I had a live-in at the time and wasn’t gonna f that up to join the mile high club. Anyway, So I go back to the Boathouse the next morning and Andy and his girlfriend are there for bloody marys and the Times crossword puzzle on the patio, which was beginning to become a habit–we would sit and smoke, do the crossword, and drink ourselves silly until the tourists started giving us dirty stares. Parker and Chet would invariably show up in the afternoon, and the bouncers would arrive on their bikes so we had their bikes and Parker’s beemer to drive if we wanted to go anywhere, which wasn’t often, and it was great because I didn’t need a car–I had parker’s beemer or a bike I could borrow, and if I needed to go away for a weekend, there was always something available. Later that day, we decide to go to my friend Fahey’s mexican restaurant, which he started in an Irish bar to avoid having to get a liquour license, and it was a f’ing outrageous success. Funny to see him so successful when I remember him selling drugs in college, where he threatened to have my legs broken if I did anything to get him busted. Needless to say, Parker and Fahey get along great, and Neil was there, who was a moose of a guy that later joined our frat and wanted me for his big brother, which was amusing considering he was older and so big he could snap me in half, and I figured it was his way of making up for the tequila hazing at his house which left Voosh and I utterly wasted; so much so that I nearly went after the cop that pulled us over but I guess I was so drunk it made the driver look sober by comparison and he let us go. I was hung over for three days, but after that Neil and Paul and Fahey never gave us crap.

  390. Nom Deplume says:

    [390] NJP


  391. lostinny says:

    I must need to be drunk to follow that story.

  392. RPatrick says:

    Why is the next GTG movie 18 dollars?

  393. RPatrick says:


    Do stories like that every really happen or is it all just lead-in for softcore?

  394. grim says:

    Why is the next GTG movie 18 dollars?

    Inflation, better buy quick or you’ll be paying $75.

  395. stu says:

    “Why is the next GTG movie 18 dollars?”

    $6 goes to Grim for promotional fees.

  396. Clotpoll says:

    bi (391)-

    “down 9% over portfolio in one day? i would have jumped out window already.”

    Why don’t you take the plunge anyway?

  397. Tom says:

    “Why is the next GTG movie 18 dollars?”

    It includes free small popcorn and a small soda. Print out the following coupon and present it to the cashier.

    | NJReReport.com
    | Bubble Bursting Special
    | One free small popcorn
    | One free small beverage
    | With purchase of movie ticket
    | Not valid if housing
    | market recovers

  398. Clotpoll says:

    stu (398)-

    What’s his value-add?

    Typical Realtor. ;)

  399. RPatrick says:

    I’m serious thats 2x what a regular movie costs. I know I am the only non Lawyer/person making under 100k but damn!

  400. Frank says:

    How is your SKF doing these days?

  401. grim says:

    I’m serious thats 2x what a regular movie costs. I know I am the only non Lawyer/person making under 100k but damn!

    Don’t forget about Warren Buffett live!

  402. stu as John II says:

    After my first year at college I used to make some Summer scratch as a camp counselor up at Kutsher’s upstate. This was one of those rich b*tch camps that made the owner wealthy but left the help ending up making minimum wage when you figured your take in late August. Well most of your pay was based on tips which were collected on visiting day and closing day from parents of these s.o.b.’s. Having gone to sleep away camp for most of my youth, I knew how to play the game. On the night before tip day, you gotta empty half the toothpaste tubes, shampoo bottles and fold all the clothes in their trunks. Of course, the parents were floored as little Johnny never did a damn thing for himself at home.

    Well the real story was from the last night of camp. After preparing for the big tip day, all of us counselors go out to play the ponies at Monticello and I nail a few big trifectas effectively tripling my Summer take. With wads of cash in my pocket, we go to the local suds and buds (yup, combo laundromat and bar) and drink ourselves silly on my dime. Well I’ve always been blessed with this inability to puke so I pretty much drink everyone including the locals under the table. Later that night I stumble outside to drain the vein and pass out in a friggin shrub. The other counselors can’t find me and spend hours looking for my sorry self. Well they all blew counselor curfew and head back to camp thinking I’m either dead or hooking up with some hick chick. At about 6 am, I wake up from the wind blowing throw my locks in the back of a pickup truck. The bar/laundromat owner apparently found me the next morning when opening up. Well I stumble to the mess hall for breakfast where I see the owner in a meeting with all of the counselors who broke curfew. As I walk in, he compliments me for being the only counselor who did not break curfew and awards me all of their combined docked pay penalty. For once, babysitting the spoiled brats really paid off. Of course, I could never work there again, but who would want to?

  403. twice shy says:

    I’ve been hedging SKF with UYG, racking up profits in UYG while SKF tanks. Eventually I hope to exit SKF at or near basis, while sitting on the UYG realized gains. Not as turbo-charged as short only, but working well enough so far. I’ll be very interested to see what happens to the financials once the short trading restrictions imposed by the SEC are lifted. Wonder how old JP Morgan would like our “free” market?

  404. njpatient says:

    337 Nom/Bairen

    “Went to Mojave Grill next door last week”

    I think I meant to say Mojave Grill rather than Lime (although the food is pretty decent at both). I’m surprised about the service at Mojave – we’ve had a good time there on a couple of occasions, and it’s actually under the same management as Isabellas.

  405. stu says:

    I’m steering clear of SKF as long as Bernanke and Paulson are running the show. Commercial RE usually lags residential as many commercial leases are multi-year so it takes a while for the losses to show up in the REITs bottom lines. Only problem is the slow bleed in these ultra etfs. I’ve made a fortune trend trading (my own term for playing the seasonal ups and downs) around my core position to the point where I’m now playing with the banks money. My long term position is flat, but with any luck and a few more major retailer closings I’ll be sitting pretty with some nice long term gains right about the time I plan to buy my next house. I figure 18 or so months from now. And the reason I didn’t get slammed today is that I still have a few blue chips working for me as well as EWBC. This one’s been just silly since it bottomed a few weeks ago. Will be out of there very soon.

  406. Clotpoll says:

    2x (406)-

    “I’ll be very interested to see what happens to the financials once the short trading restrictions imposed by the SEC are lifted.”

    I’m actually hoping Bergabe and Colonel Klink come up with more little tricks to try and help their buddies. The more shenanigans they pull, the more absolute the collapse will be when the financials begin their inevitable death spiral. The whole sector could crash in 1-2 sessions.

    As BC has noted here on several occasions, there’s a complete vacuum under the price of many financial issues (esp the ‘Fav 19’).

  407. Clotpoll says:

    stu (405)-

    Duddy Kravitz?

  408. njpatient says:

    393 Nom

    “[390] NJP


    OMG. Sorry. So did I!

    Geez – may have run into you in a masspirg office. I was there in ’96. Mrs. Patient was working in Boston, and I was in grad school at Stony Brook, and it was the only job I could get when I went to Boston to spend the summer with her.


  409. njpatient says:

    332 randy


  410. njpatient says:


    “Stu won’t let me show you what his real talent is.”

    Mrs. Patient is the same way. She only lets me show her my real talent.

  411. Old Stan says:

    I expect prices to come down in certain sectors, such as housing. But the idea that we will have general deflation, where the dollar buys more (and presumably people are paid less) doesn’t make sense to me.

    Servicing our national debt would eat more and more of GNP in a deflationary environment so why wouldn’t the Fed and Treasury inflate the money supply to counter any deflationary effects?

    I’m just trying to make sense of the economy, I’d appreciate a correction if I’m missing something or making a wrong assumption.

  412. kettle1 says:

    make money 388

    I am not trying to sell you on any thing, just thought i would share some of the links that show where i come from.

    Perhaps i am a little slow today, but i am not sure i entirely understand your analagy. if i do then you have few assets in $$$ and have moved to other various currencies and investments.

    While you may have a speed boat attached to the titanic, i have but a life jacket. I have strapped it on jumped in the water and am swimming for all i am worth trying not to get sucked down with the ship. Maybe one day i will make it Aussie land and join you for a beer ;)

  413. kettle1 says:


    i think we are generally on the same page, that the ship is going down (deflation or inflation is somewhat irrelevant in regards to the loss of the american lifestyle as it currently exists), its just that the view from a life jacket and from a speed boat are somewhat different

  414. kettle1 says:

    old stan,

    you just nailed the argument between deflationists and inflationists.

    part of the confusion can arise from the term deflation; it has 2 general meanings in economics.
    1. deflation is a general reduction in prices
    2. deflation as a general reduction in the total money supply

    deflation type 1 is the definition that is generally used by the “keynes” philosophy of economics and deflation type 2 is the definintion generally used by the “austrian” economics philosophy.
    google it for more info

    now if you go by deflation type 2 (which i do) it is possible to have a reduction of the money supply without a corresponding decrease in consumer prices (google again). because of this you can have what is essentially stealth deflation. everytime the banks have another write down or someone defaults on a home money has been destroyed and no longer exists. the question as you put it is can/does the government create enough money to counter that.

    so the debate is can the government create enough money to counter deflation without crashing the economy first? if they cannot, then deflation takes over and things get VERY ugly.

    The government, economists and financial peopele are terrified of deflation because the various economic tools that used by the government to manage the economy are pretty much useless in a deflationary environment. you basically have to ride it out.

    Another catch is that the government could spark runaway inflation in the process of trying to avoid deflation. This could happen in a couple different ways but one way is if the global communtiy loses faoth in the dollar and staets to dump it. at point the US dollar collapses and is worth less then the paper it is printed on.

    Its not a simple argument and the answer is not obvious, at least not until it is way to late to act.

    hope this helps.

  415. stu says:

    From Crossing Wall Street:

    Inflation and the Markets

    According to monthly data from Ibbotson Associates, all of the stock market’s inflation-adjusted gains have come when monthly inflation is below 3.5%.

    From 1926 through 2007, there were 984 months. Of those 984 months, 436 months showed an annualized inflation increase of over 3.5%, while the other 548 came in less than 3.5%.

    The combined increase of the 436 months with inflation greater than 3.5% is -1.25%. That’s over 36 years worth of data and it’s given investors an inflation-adjusted loss. However, the combined total of the 548 months with inflation under 3.5% is 27,957%. That’s quite a difference. Annualized, that works out to 13.14%.

  416. Old Stan says:

    Kettle1, thanks for the detailed response and suggestions for further research.

  417. The Grinder says:

    Home prices will stop going down when they become affordable not by phoney loans but with prices that are a historical level of median incomes. uauslly this has been around 4 times range

    In addition to home prices the cost of everyday living is soaring so this puts additional pressure on home prices.

  418. gryffindor says:

    Love the cooking discussion! I grew up watching Yan Can Cook and The Frugal Gourmet with my mom. I used to think his name was “Frugal” and didn’t believe my mom when she insisted his name was Jeff.

    Although the bf is pretty set on wanting to live in NYC when I move back next year, the thought of having a real kitchen to cook in still makes me want a little house in NJ.

  419. The Grinder says:

    reinvestor X Says:
    August 5th, 2008 at 1:09 pm

    It is time to rein these sorts of people in. They should be given a choice of shutting the hell up or revoking their citizenship.

    so you would rather let the bankers the realtors builders and politicians loot the country instead so your little rental shack can hold it’s value?

  420. The Grinder says:

    Rich In NNJ Says:
    August 5th, 2008 at 4:27 pm
    Ridgewood Comp Killer!

    SOLD: 341 E GLEN AVE $655,000 10/30/2007

    MLS#: 2820495
    Orig List: $629,000 5/19/2008
    SOLD: $585,000 8/5/2008

    and this guy thinks he got a good deal by getting it for 10% plus discount. Might as well just take another 10-15% off.

  421. sas says:

    “They should be given a choice of shutting the hell up or revoking their citizenship”

    so, if someone says something you don’t like, then that makes them worthy of revoking citizenship?

    new you will call them a terrorist or Al-Quada (or should I say Al-CIAda).

    I guess thats what so called America has become, if someone says something they don’t like… by golly.. THEY have to get out.

    ha ha, next you’ll tell me Al-Quida is hiding under my coffee table.


  422. sas says:

    I can’t believe I am sticking up for reinvestor X right to stick his beef, no matter how off the wall that bloke is.


  423. sas says:

    you know, oil has been on a slide as of late.

    if Lindsey is right about 50 oil w/in 1 years time… he is a damn prophet.


  424. njpatient says:

    you missed something.

    This quote:
    “It is time to rein these sorts of people in. They should be given a choice of shutting the hell up or revoking their citizenship.”

    Was from reinvestor. So you weren’t defending him, you were attacking him. And I agree with what you said.

  425. stuw6 says:

    NJP 414 – Get him to lose a bar bet to you. I guarantee it will be worth it.

    I just got home from the city and the little Gator is still awake in his room, belting out some tunes. Perhaps it was not a good idea for Stu to let him listen to They Might Be Giants as his bedtime music tonight.

  426. NJGator says:

    Oops 429 was actually me. Sorry!

  427. njpatient says:

    that was gator, wasn’t it?

  428. sas says:


    ok, that for the correction.
    no matter who said, this type of talk gives me the red a*s.


  429. njpatient says:

    couldn’t agree more – just about as un-American a statement as could ever be made.

  430. Clotpoll says:

    Think a dollar is worth a dollar? Not to this playa. From ESPN:

    “A person close to LeBron James said Tuesday that the Cavaliers’ superstar would strongly consider playing overseas if he was offered a salary of “around $50 million a year.”
    James’ current contract expires after the 2009-10 season, and while several NBA teams are working to create salary cap space for his impending free agency, none could offer a contract beginning at even $20 million a year.
    The Russian team CSKA Moscow and the Greek team Olympiacos, which recently gave Josh Childress a contract approaching $30 million over three years, have already contacted James, according to the person close to him. The person added, however, that no monetary or contractual discussions have taken place.”

  431. stu says:

    Wasn’t it Heilman who was mailing the Anthrax?

    He is singlehandedly the most responsible for the Mets not making the post-season last year and he is at it again this year! Wagner might be terrible, but he is a god compared to this Zambrano reincarnate.

  432. sas says:

    LeBron James has not talent.

    NBA has no talent.
    just young loud mouths.

    give me Larry Bird, Magic, Jordan, or Pistol Pete anyday.


  433. sas says:


    “Or maybe you mean that they stole the Korean ideas, filed similar patents in the US and are now licensing the technology (with IP rights) back to Korean firms”

    bingo, but both ideas & tech.


  434. Sybarite101 X says:

    All this talk of cook-offs: I’ll gladly volunteer to eat it.

  435. sas says:

    18 bucks for a movie tkt?

    that has to be the most exspensive movie ticket.

    if its $18 for a movie?….I wonder what the cover is at the local strip club? I bet its damn near $100.


  436. Cindy says:

    I was checking on the $18. for a ticket -curious. I sent Grim an email earlier to check a web site.

    agorafinancial.com 5 minutes for 7/30
    Addison Wiggin and Ian Matthew

    “Future distribution deals largely hinge on the success of the special event on 8/21. There will likely be DVD distribution in the future, but if you don’t blow the dust off your wallet and show up on the 21st…..who knows?”

    “We admit it is less than a bargain, but for $5 – 10 more than you’d spend to see The Dark Knight, you can experience a one-of-a-kind event…our very best effort to wake the U.S. from its fiscal coma…..”

    “In fact, Addison just informed me that if you can show proof of purchase to the event, he’ll spring for a free year of our flagship publication, Strategic Investment.”

    He goes on to post the customer service web site – You can check there for more info I would guess.

  437. chicagofinance says:

    stu Says:
    August 5th, 2008 at 10:12 pm
    Wasn’t it Heilman who was mailing the Anthrax?

    s: I just walked past the location of that mailbox in Princeton today…..

  438. kettle1 says:

    SAS, Bi

    from what i have been seeing lately i wouldnt be surprised if oil drops back under 100 between now and spring (march or so). But sdont get to excited bi the only way i see oil dropping to 60 or even 50 is if TSHTF and we enter a depression ( deflationary or inflationary is irrelevant). At that point however the low price of oil is besides the point; because you cant east it. If on the other hand we are still chugging away next summer i expect to see another 150+ runup in oil prices that may not be so temperary.

    It appears that currency issues and psychology have temperarily wonout over supply realities.

    Hey SAS world bank at work????

  439. Pat in MD says:

    Hey folks, how’s it hangin? Pissed at missing the John-in. Cable guy never showed. He sat outside during our scheduled hook up time eating a ft long hoagie. So, I thought about knocking on the van window, but he might’ve choked. So we’ve been TV and internet free since last Thursday. Damn I can clean a lot of house with no computer.

    So, today, my husband tells me McKeeDee’s down the street has wireless.

    WTF? So, I’m fast & free online right in the living room. Can you believe that? Right in front of my face.

    Has anything major happened over the last five days?

  440. jafo says:

    On deflation and inflation, I think the government’s ideal situation is create sufficient deflation to counter money expansion through currency creation. Hyperinflation doesn’t help the government if it continues to run a deficit. While its able to repay its old debts, new ones will be proportionally larger.

    The ideal situation is to drive down its costs through deflation, while printing money to pay for it. This isn’t magic, the printer is essentially confescating the wealth of other dollar debtors. Small debtors have no choice but to go along and potentially go under, such as home owners. Similarly small creditors will go under due to cash flow.

    Large creditors benefit, by being able to turn their potentially worthless dollar IOU’s into real assets or productive investments at significantly lower costs. They may see some short term balance/income sheet pain, but these will be paper losses that may even have tax benefits.

    The bubbles were driven not by currency creation but credit creation. Additional credit creation is no longer possible, as debtors are at their carrying limit. Many were at that limit even without high energy costs or more expensive imports. They were living on borrowed time via defering interest (negative amort) and borrowing to pay interest (pay primary mortgage with heloc). The federal gov and state/municipal govs have been doing the same thing on a larger scale.

    Besides no longer being an option for reflation,real credit expansion is no longer in best interest of primary debtor (US gov). Which by the way also controls interest rates and “printing press”.

    The plus side of all this, is hopefully the cash will be recycled by credits into productive investments which create real growth and living standards for everyone. I am cautiously optimistic this will be case, as investors will be shy of credit based products and thus limit over consumption and speculation. Likewise over consumers and speculators won’t be able to make payments on their leverage, even if someone is willing to lend them the money. Especially when facing margin calls, rather than equity gains to be cashed out.

    Now the happy ending of growing out of this through productive use of cashflows from monetization of deflated assets depends on sustainable energy.

    Basically China needs to funnel cash from t-bonds into green energy investments in US rather than buying more CDS. China will have to write down these CDS, but should be able to get a higher rate of return on real investment as underlying costs should now be lower. The land for the plant. The salaries for workers giving the lower cost of housing and consumer goods/services.

    Who pays for this all, primarily the highly leveraged US service worker and the financials. Dependent equities will also take a short term pounding on nominal terms, but real value of dividend yields will be more.

    A bartender will no longer be able to live in a luxury condo via option-arm and lease a pre-owned BMW.

    Police and other public sector unions will have to take wage and benefit cuts, even if it means towns going bankrupt. No more patrolmen making 80-100k + overtime in NJ. Pensions become 401Ks.

    Investment banks will see regression to mean profitability, and bonus compensation. Managing directors at bulge brackets will make 300k instead of $4M. Prop traders at these banks will make 250-400k instead of 500k to $20M.

  441. christian says:

    Let me begin by saying that i really like your blog njrereport.com a lot
    now.. back to the post haha
    I cant say that im 100% with what you wrote… care to elaberate?

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