From the NY Times:
Economists Plumb the Depths of the Downturn
Even if the economy continues to deteriorate, economists generally agree that the United States is not heading for another Great Depression.
Not only are the conditions far less dire, eight economists said in interviews, but the government is playing a heightened role in trying to cushion the impact of the housing downturn, losses at financial institutions and rising unemployment.
“The government is larger now and it acts as an anchor,” said Richard Parker, senior fellow at the Shorenstein Center at Harvard. “During the Great Depression, the government had neither the means nor the capability to serve as a backstop.”
But the economists — who range from academics to policy researchers, liberals to conservatives — disagreed about just how bad this economic slowdown, led by the worst housing slump since the Depression, could be.
“I think we’ll see a miserable job market and, consequently, an eroded standard of living for the vast majority of Americans for several years,” said Lawrence Mishel, president of the Economic Policy Institute, a liberal research organization in Washington.
“This is indistinguishable from a recession for a working family,” Mr. Mishel said. “They’re losing jobs, and they’re getting a double bite as wage growth slows down and inflation kicks up. People are losing out on both ends.”
…
“You read the headlines and you look around and you think the world is coming to an end,” said Charles W. Calomiris, a visiting scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative research group in Washington. “But I don’t think so. If you’re going to tell a worst-case scenario story at this point, it’s only going to be because the Fed loses control.”
…
“The Fed isn’t the whole story, but it’s a big part of it,” said Gerald P. O’Driscoll Jr., who was vice president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas from 1982 to 1994 and is now a senior fellow at the Cato Institute, a libertarian research organization in Washington. “It allowed these absolutely insane bubbles to happen. The lesson is, you can’t let these bubbles continue unabated with no policy making.”But the economists said others were to blame, too: investors, banks and rating agencies, as well as the current chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben S. Bernanke, and the Clinton and Bush administrations.
“They thought it was just a great thing that the stock market kept going higher and higher,” said Dean Baker, co-director at the Center for Economic and Policy Research, a liberal research group in Washington. “Then, of course, Wall Street just ran wild. It was some mix of irresponsibility and downright greed. They’re all sort of on the hook, but Greenspan sits front and center.”
…
“People are way too willing to extrapolate from history,” said Jan Hatzius, chief domestic economist at Goldman Sachs. “If it’s 2005, you can’t look at a 40-year run of data and say, ‘It must be a law of nature that housing prices never fall.’ ”
From Bloomberg:
Retailers May Flunk Back-to-School as Costs Soar, Sales Stall
Retailers in the U.S. may be dreading the approach of the school year almost as much as kids, given a forecast for the worst back-to-school season in seven years.
…
Shoppers “don’t have any more money in their pocket,” said Joseph Gromek, chief executive officer at New York-based Warnaco Group Inc., with brands that include Calvin Klein and Speedo. “So to think that they’re going to pay more for the same is not going to happen. The consumer is not willing and candidly today not able to spend more on discretionary items.”
Kathi Nunziato has noticed the price creep. As she shopped at a J.C. Penney’s in Paramus, New Jersey, the mother of a school-age boy and girl said clothes she bought in June were more expensive by the time she returned to the store in July.
“I would say $5 per item” more expensive, she said. “They’ve gone up, just in that short time.”
From MarketWatch:
Weyerhaeuser swings to loss on housing slump
Weyerhaeuser Co. posted a second-quarter loss Tuesday, its results bogged down by slumping construction and real estate markets.
…
“Unprecedented conditions in the housing market are reflected in the second quarter results of our Real Estate, Wood Products and Timberlands businesses. In addition, high oil and energy prices have adversely affected all of our businesses,” President and Chief Executive Officer Daniel Fulton said in a statement accompanying the results.
From the Star Ledger:
Tuition to spike at N.J. colleges and universities
In a year of skyrocketing fuel prices and state budget cuts, the state’s colleges and universities will raise tuition between 3.9 percent and 9 percent in the academic year that begins in September, according to a survey by The Star-Ledger.
…
Charges for housing, food and mandatory student fees for everything from computer services to student government operations to health care, and other costs will add thousands more to final bills.
Many college leaders said the tuition hikes were necessary because of an ongoing lack of funding for facilities from the state and Gov. Jon Corzine’s budget cuts to colleges and universities. Officials said they will be forced to freeze hundreds of faculty positions, slash library hours and scrap research trips.
From Newsday:
Paterson signs subprime foreclosure notice law
Gov. David A. Paterson yesterday signed legislation that requires lenders to give subprime loan borrowers a 90-day notice before starting foreclosure proceedings.
Subprime loan homeowners will now have time to meet with lenders and receive other information on dealing with their debt. Subprime loans are generally held by borrowers with shaky credit, and carry higher interest rates. Foreclosures statewide were up 14 percent in the first quarter of 2008 over the same period in 2007.
…
The 90-day notice by registered or certified mail – part of other reforms in the law – will especially help in cases where the loan-servicing company is so swamped that it can take a long time to set the groundwork for negotiations, said Marianne Garvin, president of the Community Development Corp. of Long Island, which renegotiates loans on behalf of troubled borrowers.
From the Star Ledger:
Deal cut to raise New Jersey Natural Gas rates
New Jersey Natural Gas customers will pay more for service starting in the fall.
But they would pay less than the utility sought under a settlement ironed out with the state’s Rate Counsel Division.
Under the agreement, New Jersey Natural Gas would increase its total annual revenue by $32.5 million as of Oct. 1 to cover distribution costs. Bills would increase 4 to 4.5 percent.
From MarketWatch:
Freddie Mac reports $821 million loss as it cuts dividend
Freddie Mac said it swung to a second-quarter loss of $821 million, or $1.63 a share, after taking $2.5 billion in provisions for credit losses. Revenue fell to $1.69 billion from $2.34 billion. Analysts polled by FactSet Research had expected a loss of 38 cents a share. The mortgage giant is going to cut its third-quarter dividend to 5 cents a share or less from 25 cents a share and pay the full preferred dividend. In addition, the company continues to review and consider other alternatives for managing its capital including issuing equity in amounts that could be substantial, reducing or rebalancing risk, slowing purchases into its credit guarantee portfolio, and limiting the growth or reducing the size of its retained portfolio. Estimated regulatory core capital was $37.1 billion at June 30, which represented an estimated $8.4 billion in excess of the company’s statutory minimum capital requirement, Freddie Mac said.
From the WSJ:
FirstFed Grapples With Payment-Option Mortgages
Loans Could Be Next Nightmare For Banking Sector
By RUTH SIMON
August 6, 2008; Page A2
Like many mortgage lenders, FirstFed Financial Corp. is struggling with rising losses. The bank posted a loss of nearly $70 million in the first quarter — reversing years of profit. Forty percent of its borrowers became at least 30 days delinquent after the payments on their adjustable-rate mortgages were recast. The number of foreclosed homes held by the bank doubled in the second quarter from the first quarter.
But FirstFed isn’t another bank grappling with the fallout from subprime mortgages that went to less-creditworthy borrowers. In fact, FirstFed was ranked last year as one of the top five banks in the nation by a trade publication, partly because it appeared to have pared back on risky mortgage loans. Yet this year, the Los Angeles bank is on the front lines of what could be the next big mortgage debacle: payment option mortgages. These loans went mainly to people with good credit, but they are likely to experience defaults that are nearly as high as — in some cases higher than — those for subprime.
Barclays Capital estimates that as many as 45% of option ARMs, as they are often called, originated in 2006 and 2007 could wind up in default. Another analysis, by UBS AG, suggests that defaults on option ARMs originated in 2006 could be as high as 48%, slightly higher than its estimate for defaults on subprime loans. Both studies looked at loans that were packaged into securities.
…
In addition, many borrowers submitted loan applications that overstated their financial condition, making it more likely that they won’t be able to afford even a modified loan. FirstFed figured that some borrowers had fudged their incomes and tried to protect itself with tighter credit standards. “But we were shocked by the magnitude of the lies,” Ms. Heimbuch says. “You expect a 20% fudge. You don’t expect 500%.”
From MarketWatch:
Ambac swings to operating loss
Bond insurer Ambac Financial Group Inc. said Wednesday that its second-quarter net income jumped to $823.1 million, or $2.80 a share, from $173 million, or $1.67 a share, a year earlier, due to mark-to-market gains on credit derivatives. Revenue for the quarter reached $1.33 billion, compared to $412.6 million a year earlier. Adjusting for $961.6 million of gains from credit derivatives as well as an estimated $1.06 billion of impairment losses due to credit deterioration, Ambac said it swung to an operating loss of $1.53 a share, from a profit of $2.01 a share a year earlier. Analysts polled by FactSet had been expecting a loss of $1.19 a share.
From Bloomberg:
Freddie Mac Posts Fourth Straight Loss, Cuts Dividend
Freddie Mac, the second-largest U.S. mortgage-finance company, posted a larger fourth-quarter loss than analysts estimated as delinquencies rose and cut its dividend to shore up capital.
The second-quarter net loss of $821 million, or $1.63 a share, compares with the 54-cent a share average loss estimate of nine analysts in a Bloomberg survey. The common-share dividend will be reduced to 5 cents from 25 cents, McLean, Virginia-based Freddie said today in a statement.
Freddie had credit-related expenses of $2.8 billion, double the first quarter, and wrote down the value of subprime and low- quality mortgage securities by $1 billion as the biggest housing slump since the Great Depression increased foreclosures. Freddie Chief Executive Officer Richard Syron is seeking to bolster capital and restore confidence after U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson was forced to step in with a rescue plan for Freddie and the larger Fannie Mae.
“Home prices have declined and have hurt them as has the decrease in home sales,” said Credit Suisse Group’s, Moshe Orenbuch, the top-ranked analyst covering the company. “What you need for this stuff to work its way through is for homes to get through the foreclosure process and be sold.”
From the APP:
Ferries’ ridership down on fuel charges, layoffs
Increasing fuel prices and Wall Street layoffs are making the ridership seas a little rough for the two ferry lines that shuttle commuters between Monmouth County and New York’s financial district.
Officials at SeaStreak and New York Waterway are reporting drops in ridership this year, and both carriers had to impose fuel surcharges on riders. The surcharges usually are tied to what carriers pay for diesel fuel. And some riders said they’ve noticed fewer people aboard.
“It’s definitely the fuel and increases in ticket prices and layoffs on Wall Street. It’s our main stop, and ridership has declined,” said Maraliese Beveridge, NY Waterway manager of the Belford Ferry terminal in Middletown.
NY Waterway ridership from Belford dipped to 42,436 passengers in June, from 45,685 in June 2007, according to reports filed with Monmouth County. NY Waterway leases the Belford Terminal from the county for $10,000 a month and receives a percentage of concession revenue, said William Heine, Monmouth County spokesman.
SeaStreak officials said they’ve also seen a modest decline in passengers.
“Our ridership, year to year, is probably a percentage point or two down,” said David Stafford, SeaStreak general manager. “We don’t put it down to fuel increases, although they’ve hit everyone.”
Instead, Stafford cited the decline in the economy and resulting job losses in New York. He said monthly ridership on SeaStreak averages about 75,000 passengers.
Evesham sours on shopping center. The deal appears to be off for a proposed 350,000-square-foot shopping center planned for the current site of the township’s Department of Public Works.Officials cited recent changes to the state’s affordable housing rules that would have required the township to build an additional 37 affordable housing units along with the shopping center.
Deputy Mayor Chris Brown estimated the cost of constructing those units at about $7.4 million, about $6 million of which would have been shouldered by taxpayers, he said.
Mayor Randy Brown said the township can’t afford to “support another unfunded mandate” from the state.
http://www.courierpostonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080806/NEWS01/808060351/-1/newsfront2
Building retail space is one thing. Filling it with retailers another. Surprised they can still get financing for this kind of deal.
“A proposal for a 37-acre spread of luxury apartments, townhomes, retail shops and cafes along Hurffville-Cross Keys Road has been submitted to municipal planning officials.
The proposal, which is being managed by Atkins Companies of West Orange, calls for a mixture of 70,000 square feet of retail shops and cafes, 114,000 square feet of office space, 390 units of luxury apartments, 96 units of stacked townhomes, 5,000 square feet for a clubhouse and gazebos and around 13 acres of open space.”
http://www.courierpostonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080806/NEWS01/808060357/-1/newsfront2
While I’m not sure we’re headed for a great depression, I don’t think the problem is easy to fix as people seem.
A lot of what’s happening is basically extending credit to fix the problem. It’s like giving a junkie a fix when he starts to crash instead of getting him clean and considering that a solution.
Eventually we need to ween ourselves and our government off of this to have a healthier economy or we’re going to keep running into these problems.
From Bloomberg:
Japan Says Economy Deteriorating, Signals a Recession
Japan’s government said the economy is “deteriorating,” acknowledging for the first time that the country’s longest postwar expansion has probably ended.
“There is a high possibility the economy has entered a recession,” Shigeru Sugihara, head of business statistics at the Cabinet Office said in Tokyo today. The government bases its assessment of the economy on the coincident index, its broadest indicator of economic health.
From CNBC:
Mortgage Applications Rise from 2000 Low
Demand for U.S. mortgage applications climbed last week from an eight-year low a week earlier, as home loan rates dipped from near 12-month peaks, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association on Wednesday.
…
The refinancing applications index climbed 4.4 percent to 1,121.8 last week, while the home purchase applications gauge rose 1.8 percent to 315.2 on a seasonally adjusted basis, the MBA said.
heating my house is already over $500 a month last year with a 10 yr old furnace and gas heat. I am not looking forward to this winter!
tbw,
“heating my house is already over $500 a month”
You may want to turn down your AC instead of turning on your furnace :)
Seriously though, have you checked your home for drafts and how good your insulation is? It can make a big difference and a lot of it you can do yourself.
I don’t know if they still do it but I remember that PSE&G used to do free energy efficiency audits.
Tom: House was built in 1925, has about 30 windows, most of them original to the house :(
I am slowly replacing them, but quality windows are expensive…
“Aug. 6 (Bloomberg) — Morgan Stanley, the second-biggest U.S. securities firm, told thousands of clients this week that they won’t be allowed to withdraw money on their home-equity credit lines, said a person familiar with the situation”
“It’s evidence that they don’t think the economy is going to recover quickly,” said Brad Hintz, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. in New York who rates Morgan Stanley shares “outperform” and who owns some of the stock. “The fact that they’re trying to get ahead of the problem is very good.”
“Morgan Stanley customers are typically coming out of their wealth management side, so typically a high net worth customer,” said Christopher Whalen, co-founder of Institutional Risk Analytics in Torrance, California. “This shows you they are under the same pressures as everybody else.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=afQ0PVYvOgzI&refer=home
Those nasty speculators are selling crude down. We must stop them. Any legislation to ban short selling crude or does that only pertain to the fav 19?
“Tom: House was built in 1925, has about 30 windows, most of them original to the house :(“
Check for ghosts too. 25% of the cost to heat older homes is related to paranormal activity according to recent study by The Fictitious Statistics Research Group.
“At least 29 states plus the District of Columbia, including several of the nation’s largest states, faced an estimated $48 billion in combined shortfalls in their budgets for fiscal year 2009.”
“The bursting of the housing bubble has reduced state sales tax revenue collections from sales of furniture, appliances, construction materials, and the like. Weakening consumption of other products has also cut into sales tax revenues. Property tax revenues have also been affected, and local governments will be looking to states to help address the squeeze on local and education budgets. And if the employment situation continues to deteriorate, income tax revenues will weaken and there will be further downward pressure on sales tax revenues as consumers become reluctant or unable to spend.”
“The worst states as a percentage of budget gaps vs. general funds are in order: California (21.3%), Arizona (17.8%), Nevada (13.5%), Rhode Island (12.6%), Florida (11.0%), New York (9.1%), New Jersey (7.6-10.6%), and Alabama (9.2%).”
http://www.cbpp.org/1-15-08sfp.htm
#21: lol, no unfortunately no paranormal activity…but these old houses with the dark wood and stained glass windows definately has a “creep” factor to it!
(22) BC Bob
The gov is proposing a 1% sales tax hike (temporary of course – ha -)
Fresno Bee – CA – 8/5
“Gov. Schwarzenegger, butting heads with his own Republican Party, has proposed a temporary 1-cent sales tax increase that would generate billions to help end a bitter budget standoff.”
“Schwarzenegger made it clear in making the proposal to legislative leaders over the weekend that he also wants long-term fixes to the state’s chronic budget woes, several legislative sources from both parties said Monday.”
“The governor basically framed his sales tax hike, expected to raise about $6 billion annually, as a temporary sacrifice to be recouped by Californians in years to come, the sources said.”
“California’s current sales tax rate is 6.25%, but all counties charge at least an additional 1 percentage point, many even more than that.”
(I look at 8.275% in Clovis.)
Our budget was due 7-1. He has already cut 22,000 temporary worker’s jobs.
I like NJ’s 7-10% variable budget deficit. We don’t even know where the money is!!!
“I like NJ’s 7-10% variable budget deficit. We don’t even know where the money is!!!”
That’s just the teaser shortfall. Wait till it resets :)
(25) HEHEHE – Ours keeps “changing” too. Somewhere between $15.2B and $15.8B. They have already cut this year’s school budgets ($4M for my district.) The Dems want to tax the highest earners – Reps say no new taxes. We are at 37 days W/O a budget and counting. We are official broke come 9/1.
From today’s opinion page:
“To close this year’s deficit and prevent future one’s, Schwarzenegger wants to combine budget reform with a temporary 1-cent increase in the sales tax. But the economy is too fragile to increase the sales tax, even temporarily.”
We shall see….
Nasdaq OMX profit rises 81%
The exchanges are still rocking.
tbw,
Try the clear plastic that goes over the windows. Two winters ago my small 1600 sqft house was going over $300 for a couple of months in the winter with my gas heat and 1988 furnace. I replaced the windows in my den (draftiest windows in the house) with Pellas and put plastic over the rest of the windows. My bills were down 20%+ and just barely edged over $200 during the coldest month. This is with someone being home all day (wife at home with new babies) versus no one at home during the day the year before. I could not have been happier with the results. I also added some more insulation to the attic (just a bit) and did a better job insulating the gap between the foundation and the frame of the house in the basement.
Once November hits just take a Saturday and go through the entire house to see where you can stuff insulation. Doing that saved me hundreds of dollars last winter.
Official broke – is officially broke..
Business income is down, R/E taxes are down, folks are spending less, and to compound problems we spent a fortune on fires this year…Ugh.
exscuse the long post, the NY time article really annoyed me
Even if the economy continues to deteriorate, economists generally agree that the United States is not heading for another Great Depression.
And housing wasn’t a bubble in 2005 was it?
Not only are the conditions far less dire, eight economists said in interviews, but the government is playing a heightened role in trying to cushion the impact of the housing downturn, losses at financial institutions and rising unemployment.
Hey we are a free market economy, why let non performing institutions fail? What happened to the mythical invisible hand?
“The government is larger now and it acts as an anchor,” said Richard Parker, senior fellow at the Shorenstein Center at Harvard. “During the Great Depression, the government had neither the means nor the capability to serve as a backstop.”
The so called government back stop has been tried during the depression, during the Russian financial collapse in 99 in Argentina etc. It doesn’t work. It only serves to complicate the issue and increase the wasteful allocation of resources.
“I think we’ll see a miserable job market and, consequently, an eroded standard of living for the vast majority of Americans for several years,” said Lawrence Mishel, president of the Economic Policy Institute, a liberal research organization in Washington.
The US will not see stabilization is standard of living until we become a producing economy again. The much vaunted service economy is a globalist pipe dream.
“You read the headlines and you look around and you think the world is coming to an end,” said Charles W. Calomiris, a visiting scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative research group in Washington. “But I don’t think so. If you’re going to tell a worst-case scenario story at this point, it’s only going to be because the Fed loses control.”
No problem here the Fed has everlasting under control and is crashing things quite nicely.
“The Fed isn’t the whole story, but it’s a big part of it,” said Gerald P. O’Driscoll Jr., who was vice president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas from 1982 to 1994 and is now a senior fellow at the Cato Institute, a libertarian research organization in Washington. “It allowed these absolutely insane bubbles to happen. The lesson is, you can’t let these bubbles continue unabated with no policy making.”
The Fed is the primary problem. It’s a private banking cartel run by the banking industry
But the economists said others were to blame, too: investors, banks and rating agencies, as well as the current chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben S. Bernanke, and the Clinton and Bush administrations
“They thought it was just a great thing that the stock market kept going higher and higher,” said Dean Baker, co-director at the Center for Economic and Policy Research, a liberal research group in Washington. “Then, of course, Wall Street just ran wild. It was some mix of irresponsibility and downright greed. They’re all sort of on the hook, but Greenspan sits front and center.” .
Well this article isn’t all fluff….. at least someone was willing to call out the crooks
“People are way too willing to extrapolate from history,” said Jan Hatzius, chief domestic economist at Goldman Sachs. “If it’s 2005, you can’t look at a 40-year run of data and say, ‘It must be a law of nature that housing prices never fall.’ ”
The problem is the opposite; to few people understand how to critically look at data in reference to history. There is plenty of historical data to show home prices dropping. Did this guy already forget the 80’s and 90’s?
#9
“wrote down the value of subprime and low- quality mortgage securities by $1 billion”
But bi said there would be no more write downs!!!
#31 Kettle:There is plenty of historical data to show home prices dropping. Did this guy already forget the 80’s and 90’s?
That is exactly what I thought, and this guy is from Goldman too.
Why dont we just do away with elections and let Goldman run the country overtly? That would shave off a hefty percentage off our deficit.
#34
We should let David Copperfield run the country. See if he can make our defict and all our other problems disappear.
[29]
Clear shrink plastic helps a lot. I used it on my 150+ YO rowhouse in Philly and it made a big difference.
[from yesterday's thread]
NJP — I was about 13 years prior, so no luck on that score. While Mrs. Patient was there, I was up the hill at LS.
Lost — yes, it helps to be drunk when following my “John” adventures. I was, back in 1984-90 when all my really good John-type stories took place. They don’t compare to John’s though—real life isn’t nearly as interesting as John.
[37, con't]
and yes, Parker Bennett (his real name, I think) was a real person and a total party animal, which is why he reminds me of John.
I knew some crazier people, but in retrospect I think they were, in fact, crazy, so I don’t talk about them much in John-style. Not a good career move to admit you hung around with loons, particularly loons that weren’t adverse to breaking a few laws.
From the FT
BBA to enhance Libor governance
The British Bankers’ Association will strengthen the governance of Libor – in part by adding more independent members to the committee that oversees the key money market indices, which have faced criticism during the ongoing tensions in the money markets.
The association said it had retained law firm Clifford Chance to advise it on strengthening governance procedures and that all respondents to its consultation paper issued in June supported the enhancement in governance and scrutiny for one of the most important financial indicators.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/03/realestate/03mort.html?ref=realestate
A new study suggests that more upper-income borrowers and more whites took out subprime loans than any other groups.
————————–
Blame the man again. Just when we thought it was safe to blame the poor minorities, turns out it wasn’t just the rich white guy giving out the loan, he was getting it as well. I may have to fire my butler if this keeps up.
since there are so many good writers here, I have an idea for you folks to make extra bucks: take one-fifth idea from each amazon bester seller book (#1, 2, 6, 25 and 38) and plus all my political links posted on this board, masage the wordings and title it “ultimate guide to obarma”. guaranteed, you will be at the top of the list.
http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/books/53/ref=pd_ts_b_nav
DL,
They more they built the sweater th edeald will be. Keep building baby.
Quick question, did any one else notice that GSMLS does not list flood insurance information on their public listings anymore? Possibly a little bit of deception to increase foot traffic in lower priced areas?
Those nasty speculators are selling crude down. We must stop them. Any legislation to ban short selling crude or does that only pertain to the fav 19?
I agree, Stop those speculator SOBs. They make money when oil goes up and then they make money when they bring the price down. They’re the evil devils while everyone in Washington are elected angels that love this country.
“I have an idea for you folks to make extra bucks”
bi,
Let’s stick to the old plan. Take the other side of Bi’s trade.
“But we were shocked by the magnitude of the lies,” Ms. Heimbuch says. “You expect a 20% fudge. You don’t expect 500%.”
We are shoked, Absolutelly shoked, nobody could have predicted this!!!!
Why dont we just do away with elections and let Goldman run the country overtly? That would shave off a hefty percentage off our deficit.
I agree. In th elong run it would actually benefit the US. At least the SOB’s are smart unlike this administration.
Rich: When you get a chance could you please provide me with prior sales price (if available), taxes and address for njmls 2833584. Thanks as always.
TBW (#18):
The shrink wrap is cheaper but for a longer term solution, triple-track storms are much cheaper than window replacement and really cut the drafts. I put them on big old windows on an old farmhouse (close to 50 windows, I think) and the cost was about $4000, less than a tenth of the cost we were quoted to replace all the windows. Cutting the drafts made a world of difference in our comfort and our bills.
29 states that will have huge budget deficits in 2009
http://www.cbpp.org/1-15-08sfp.htm
Goldman is a funny place, many years ago I had an interview there and the reason I was not hired was I was overqualified. The lie they love to tell unwanted candidates. But to be honest my friend works there now and I go to the cafeteria with her around once a month and judging from some of the boneheads in there I think they were telling me the truth.
#7
Poor Firstfed. Shocked that people would lie to get into a house htey otherwise couldn;t afford.
Whatever happened to the days when you had to submit W-2s, Tax returns, copies of bank, brokerage, and mutual statements. I guess I’m stuck in the last century in some ways. But at least I’m not a FB.
#51
“Goldman is a funny place, many years ago I had an interview there and the reason I was not hired was I was overqualified.”
9:43 Am Wednesday August 6 and we have the quote of the month.
Of course Goldman wouldn’t even call me, so i guess I was to overqualifed to even be brought in.
20 BC
Hee!
Re #40,
The strongest power in this country, “keeping up with the Joneses”
Tom & Cindi,
Perhaps Cal and NJ have the Wachovia pick a payment budget.
BC (20)-
The only good outcome is the outcome that Bergabe and Colonel Klink have pre-ordained.
I am amazed at the lack of outrage as our economy has been rigged, our banking system is failing, robber millionaires are openly stealing from us and the bill for the party is being prepared for us, our children and our children’s children.
It may take a Depression to pull our heads out of our a$$es, so we can focus on our complete spiritual and financial insolvency, rather than the idiot entertainment du jour.
Funny how a few skipped meals can sharpen the mind.
#51 John: Goldman is a very differnet place now, than when I was there, and it was still a partnership.Now it has become cult like.
Although I do agree there were definitely some ivy league boneheads there. Some could not find their way out of a paper bag.
Just to think: seven years ago, we had the moment, the incentive and the will to begin addressing all kinds of systemic problems in the US.
Instead, the prez told us all to go shopping.
Shame on him; shame on us.
stu, and anyone else interested:
regarding NG from yesterday. While everyone is hyped about the current NG boom going on in the US, people are missing an important point. Access to capital to run projects.
if you remember, i posted an article a few weeks ago about grain elevators going out of business due to the price of corn. the price of corn is through the roof (good for farmers). But in order to store that corn in a silo to used throughout the year the operator has to buy the entire lot upfront. They do this by borrowing money to make the purchase and paying back over the year as they sell the inventory. Some of the grain elevator operators are going out of business because they cannot get loans to buy the grain upfront, due to credit contraction occurring in the US.
There is a similar issue in in the energy market. It takes about 600K to drill a regular well and 2 million+ for a horizontal well (the tech used to get a lot of the NG people are after now). That is the price for building 1 well, not including operation there after. It takes many wells to pull this stuff out of the ground.
If you look at some of the current statements from companies drilling for NG, it looks like they are already inflating their estimated recoverables in order to help obtain financing. As financing becomes harder to get the cost to get the NG is going to get higher and higher. ultimately limiting how much they can afford to extract regardless of geological limits.
the government may be running the printing press at full steam, but none of that capital is making to the people, banks and large corporations are taking it and holding it. in order to break even on losses already taken and expected. the inflationary action doesnt help much if it gets horded by the banks
the government may be running the printing press at full steam, but none of that capital is making to the people, banks and large corporations are taking it and holding it. in order to break even on losses already taken and expected. the inflationary action doesnt help much if it gets horded by the banks
You hit the nail on the head with this one Kettle. So far all the printing has done is keep banks out of Bankruptsy. We have to print some more money to buy a few more printing presses and crank those printing preses up there are a lot more bailouts to do.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/08/06/news/companies/big_three_woes/index.htm?source=yahoo_quote
ChiFi,
Going back to my discussion about the yellow stuff from yesterday. I added to my position buy buying a few more ounces this morning. MY FA does not like it and Peter Schiff himself send me an e-mail saying that he like sthe positions but he thinks I could use some more diversification. He recomended an Australian and German Utility.
My porfolio is now 65% in Gold.
Make [62],
Now fannie/freddie can issue debt and go to the window. They have become their own printing press. The game was rigged from the start. Dropping the FFR, along with opening the windows, were never about the general public. It’s strictly for the banks, the chinese, the russians and now Bill Gross.
Another printing press will soon be in operation, auto industry.
37 Nom
I hated that job
Far preferred working at the plastics factory. Blister packaging, die cutting, sonic welding, injection moulding – pretty interesting stuff when you’re 16 years old.
make,
the other problem with the printing presses….
the 1st dollar out the door is worth more then the second dollar out the door. The banks are hoarding the 1st run cash. when the public starts to see the 2nd and 3rds run cash ti will be worth much less. but then again you clearly already know this.
Funny thing about goldman is the back-office is down right scary looking. Back in the 1970s/1980s the bright eyed management trainees started there and worked there way up. Now the B-school grads start at the top and the back office is made up of lifers they swiped from the bowels of the bronx.
Good news is if Goldman ever had to make physical delivery of a gold futures contract last minute all they need is a set of pliers and a quick trip to the mailroom and the cage. With a smelting pot they could come up with a few hundred pounds of the stuff in no time.
Kettle(66),
yes Sir. I have a grim vision of where we are going in the next 2-3 yrs.
I kinda hope for another round of Stimulus checks cause everyone of my tennats caught up and made their August pmnt on time.
Not to mention what’s it’s gonn ado to the price of shiny stuff.
[65] patient
I hated it too, but I did field canvassing and it was good practice for interpersonal work.
Fringe benefits were obviously good though.
clot
“I am amazed at the lack of outrage as our economy has been rigged, our banking system is failing, robber millionaires are openly stealing from us and the bill for the party is being prepared for us, our children and our children’s children.”
Had to quote it, ‘coz I wish I’d written it.
These days, the welfare queens really are royalty.
Welfare barons?
Nom
Field canvassing was what I did as well.
I was a far less agressive fella in those days, and it didn’t work out so well.
[61]
So does this mean my NG fund will come back???
lots and lots of good “john” stories yesterday I am very impressed. Kinda shocked my part 3 4d story made it out of moderation to be 168.
clot
“Instead, the prez told us all to go shopping.”
I had relatives who parroted this to me. Still makes me sick to think about it.
Stimulus Checks 2: Recession Decimation
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/Bernanke-WMT-Fed-economy-taxes-oil/index/a/18373
[71] I did okay, in fact, pretty well, but really disliked it, and started to really dislike some of the other canvassers. Esp. Ellen (not her real name), who I could not stand for most of the year, and then, well, whoopee.
One thing I saw that bugged me was an utter disdain for those who didn’t fall into the liberal camp. Such towns were referred to as “american flag territory” because the less liberal suburbs had more homes with such displays.
In response to this observation, one canvasser named Arno remarked “Azzholes flock.” This was in 1983 and I never forgot it, and lately think much about it when I see the blog vitriol of the left.
[73]
John,
Admit it. You really are Parker Bennett, aren’t you?
I think the entire design of the organization is extremely inefficient. Also, Ralph Nader, in real life, is a truly horrible person – on the level of Martha Stewart, but without the class.
78#, how much do u know Martha Stewart? a good lawyer should not be brainwashed by media.
My vote for the new 3 stooges
http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2008/fortune/0808/gallery.whosawitcoming.fortune/12.html
They didn’t see the credit crisis coming. Shocker.
these are not average $25 donations. i am wondering if there are any cheney’s middle east friends in the big donor list.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/08/05/america/bundlers.php
Maybe this isn’t news.
http://tinyurl.com/5ueaet
“Big Three face bankruptcy fears
After huge losses and plunging sales, experts aren’t ruling out the possibility that GM, Ford or Chrysler might eventually be forced to declare bankruptcy.”
That should be “and/or”.
Shhhh it’s a secret.
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/C-AXP-bac-cof-dfs-ABS/index/a/18364
vodka (61)-
Hey, when we reach the apex of the hyperinflation rollercoaster, then we get the thrill of deflation.
Good times. Very Zimbabwean.
vodka (66)-
Treasury as Ponzi.
79 bi
“how much do u know Martha Stewart? a good lawyer should not be brainwashed by media.”
bi, you’re so provincial it’s cute.
I’ve know Martha well, and have for years.
#67 John: I started in the back office for my first year there, back when a non ivy leaguer could still have a chance of getting out onto the muni trading floor, whcih I did after 12 months.
As far as back office most of thsoe jobs are gone now, and al the old timers are gone. For instance when I started in the back office muni operations consisted of about 40 people, plus anoterh 4 or 5 in the cahe dedicated solely to munis.
When I left in 1999, muni operations consisted of about 8 people, including the cage.
Also they started hiring college grads (non ivy league of course for these operations positions, and MBA’s (non ivy league of course as managers in these various ops departments)
The days of the HS grads fromn the Bronx, Bklyn and SI getting good paying back office jobs at Goldman are long, long gone, and it is the same everywhere else on the street.
I know a few old timers who are left, one who recently decliend to relocate to upstate NY, out of a job as of last Friday. All his experience in one company for 20+ years, no college degree;sadly it is over for this guy as far as working on the street.
“Maybe this isn’t news.”
NJP [82],
See my post, #64, the future printing press.
No Bottom for Housing Until ’09 and No Quick Recovery, says NYU Prof
clot 84,
A true financial wizard might be able to navigate such a scenario and make vast sums of money. take on huge debts now, use hyper inflation to wipe out debt and hold assets debt free right before deflation hits… and wala you have a Rockefeller!
Note: i am not a Rockefeller or a hopeful, perhaps a wishful though
“Maybe this isn’t news.”
NJP [82],
See my post, #64, the future printing press.
and you can also see post #62 for additional reference.
do u know how much people magazine paid for cover photo of angelina’s newborn? $15m
now here is the rest of the story:
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/08/05/earlyshow/leisure/celebspot/main4321357.shtml?source=mostpop_story
Kettle,
You don’t have to be a true financial Wizard, just a REREPORT blogger and a two big one’s with a Testa Dure(hardheaded) thick skin attitude.
and whalaa
http://cnj.craigslist.org/rfs/780197633.html
This is in woodbridge.
This was purchased in 2006 for more than 300K. now it is listed for 250K. Initially listed for 275K.
62 make – ah – beat me to it. And BC – it’s already ordained, of course. The press conference will be at 2pm.
vodka (90)-
Sadly, I think you have inadvertently stumbled upon the Master Plan of the US Dept of the Treasury:
“take on huge debts now, use hyper inflation to wipe out debt and hold assets debt free right before deflation hits…”
On second thought, maybe not. More likely the plan is: “hold on until Inauguration Day, 2009; then beat it out of DC and head for the hills”.
94 david
Check out those maroon, velvet drapes on the shower!!!
I was poking through zillow this am and thought I’d go look to see how my old house in Chicago was doing. It turns out that it was resold in March this year, for 14% more than I got in 2000. (Meanwhile, zillow’s graph of past performance appears to have been “adjusted” since previous viewings.)
14% in 8 years. Hmmm.
Cartwheels, high fives? I’m sure they are not describing their shareholder’s?
http://www.wamufreechecking.com/FreeChecking/index.html?appType=FC&AffiliateID=msnspot&CreativeID=WFC
BC (99)-
“Cartwheels, high fives”
That’s what I’ll be doing when WaMu hits $0.00.
Parker Bennett: Geezus, I thought Graydon and Ellery were prime names but this one takes the cake. lol!
Actually, if you take most last names and make them a first name, it usually achieves acceptable haughtyville status.
94 – David.
The ad says “DOWNPAYMENT ASSISTANCE AVAILABLE TO QUALIFIED PURCHASERS”
Clot, isn’t this illegal? (except when it comes via a gift from the bank of Mom and Dad?)
BC,
“Cartwheels, high fives” is that how you’re supposed to spend your time when you are waiting in line during the bank run after the FDIC declares them insolvent?
[101] Gary,
That was his name, I swear. I think we also worked for an Ibank, so he is most definitely John-like. Age would be about right too.
I think I will google him just for grins.
make 93,
it takes money to make money. while by the numbers i am above average financially, that has little meaning in the real world. hence we come back to your speed boat and my life jacket.
wamu aint going out of business, the bonds, stock etc. are all slowly recovering. Same with Sov, NCC, etc. they met the threshold to be too big to fail and will prod along.
Being a successful bank is overated, Franklin National bank out in Long Island was the first bank to issue credit cards, have an ATM and have a drivethrough and they went bust.
Nom [104],
Parker’s parents were ahead of their time! :) Now, it’s so fashionable to have a pithy-like name if you live in the “in” towns of BC.
#97
I did not understand. Am I supposed to notice something funny/odd thing here? I happened to seet this add. I am not planning to buy this.
I think the house is staged.
“we come back to your speed boat and my life jacket.”
Don’t forget our hiding spot in Domenica.
109 make,
let me hitch a ride in your speed boat and you are welcome to stay! :)
http://themessthatgreenspanmade.blogspot.com/2008/08/first-fed-should-anyone-be-surprised.html
First Fed?
Kettle1,
Give me your cordinates and I’ll jump on the boat and coem and get you as long as Titanic is out of site.
[110] ket
Don’t forget the warren zevon essentials, all of which I can provide.
101 gary
“Actually, if you take most last names and make them a first name, it usually achieves acceptable haughtyville status”
Indeed – one of the oldest tricks in the book.
Of course, I have a first name for my last name, which has the directly opposite effect.
111, make, this curve is easier to understand:
http://www.nationalenquirer.com/eva_mendes_ad_too_sexy_for_tv/celebrity/65253
[113]
same here, or as Robert Grisham once referred to people like us, “the pitifully uninitialed or unnumeraled.”
I cannot reveal my true identity as I am still being considered as a presidential running mate.
my son’s name is Duke Augustus Chesterton de Chenye IX. can I move to BC?
to me, national enquirer is the most rigorous media. they never claimed anything without backing up by evidence:
http://www.nationalenquirer.com/exclusive_john_edwards_love_child_photos/celebrity/65258
How snooty are you?
S1 Moderately Snooty ~
At this ranking it is often difficult for people to distinquish whether or not you are Snooty. Every once in a while you let something slip out that shows you’re Snooty. You are still in denial about being Snooty.
S2 Significantly Snooty ~
At this ranking everyone knows you are Snooty. Even though you try and deny it, deep down in your heart you know that it’s true.
S3 Severly Snooty ~
At this ranking you know and accept the fact that you are Snooty. You buy Snooty things and only shop at Snooty stores. You always have the latest high tech gadgets, wear only designer clothes and drive only trendy cars.
S4 Incredibly Snooty ~
At this ranking you proudly proclaim to everyone you’re Snooty. In addition to buying Snooty things you walk around with your nose up in the air, you still respect others but deep down inside you know you’re better than them.
S5 Extremely Snooty ~
At this ranking you have reached the apex of being Snooty. Your entire attitude and lifestyle is Snooty. You actually achieved the same status as Frasier and Paris. Congratulations, all that effort you put into being Snooty for all those years has finally paid off.
@107,
my buddy is having twins and his wife’s rule for names is to have them be 1 syllable. so far it’s Chase and are struggling with the second name….i’ve been having fun busting his chops on names. my suggestions are Jay and Crew.
S6 Beyond Snooty (my level)– You are deeply aware of your snootiness, but feel as though you must accept it to transcend it. You look down on your snooty friends who hold out some hope that they are not in fact snooty. This is the most corrosive form of snootiness, you tell yourself, and you refuse to play this game any longer. Only by admitting to yourself that you actually hate domestic beer, Disney World and mass market fiction will you ever achieve some degree of comfort and project a sense of normalcy, rather than barely disguised anguish and hostility.
anecdote …
I went to a moderately priced restaurant in Montclair last night. I’m a regular there for late evening meal (about once a month), so it’s always empty when I go.
I asked the waitress how things were. She hesitated, so I replied, “I guess, not so good?” figuring it was something personal. She said, “It’s been very slow here”.
So there you have it: people cutting back on discretionary spending in an affluent town.
Grim,
I found the next GTG location
http://sunsethill.slvrcreek.com/home.htm
“I found the next GTG location”
Kettle,
I thought it was here?
http://family.webshots.com/photo/2180045130085997127kTmxOp
http://sunsethill.slvrcreek.com/shotguns.htm
I’m down to finally make one g2g and this is a nice one. Slug is my weapon of choice.
We could get a competiotion going and the winner gets to us the “Champion” handle.
i also went to one of my favorite rest.
owner told me ,,, has not seen it this bad
in the 21 years in bus.
may have to close the doors.., has cut, and cut,,, but his prices of goods,,, killing him..
[124] BC
Careful with that. I feel another “John” story coming on.
Seriously, for make and others, a shooting GTG is doable. I joined an outdoor range in PA that is pretty reasonable.
“Careful with that. I feel another “John” story coming on.”
Nom,
I can hardly wait!
Everyone knows the economy is booming and this is simply a mental recession caused by a handful of whiners That’s what Phil Grahm says.
/off sarcasm
That guy really is a lowlife. Hope he does a perp walk.
I haven’t shot a gun since I was in camp 25 years ago. I could only imagine how bad my shot would be today.
[116] John
Which logically means that either post 116 or the previous John stories are bullsh1t, because if even a fraction of the John stories were true, you would be radioactive.
#131 Nom,
John is really Hilary.
[130] Like riding a bike. I went to the range last week—hadn’t fired at a target in 10 years, and still unloaded the first clip in the K ring at 20 yards with a Makarov. I was stunned.
[128] BC
Okay, the McSorley’s story later today, if possible. In “John” format of course, but without the celebs and gratuitious sex. Well, not much gratuitous sex.
i read here allot, haven’t posted in a while.
has anyone thought about how osama bin laden’s prediction to bring down the US has come true?
this all seems to have started right after 9/11, when the govt was trying to avoid the US to hit a deep recession so started dropping interest rates, house prices skyrocketed, etc. i’m clearly not an economist, but it really seems to me that 9/11 was thought out to have this bigger economic impact….
make any sense?
[121] skep
Krap. I was hoping for moderately snooty, but I seem to have transcended to your level.
My Mom, the commie that she is, is gonna kill me.
“That guy really is a lowlife. Hope he does a perp walk.”
His wife certainly should.
135 lena
Yes. All the time.
[135] Lena
No
Another Easy Answer to Easy Questions
[copyright, NJ Patient]
I know for a fact, Bear Stearns was asking people in interviews “Why should we hire you? You aren’t from an Ivy League school”. Maybe if they weren’t so concerned with hiring semi retarded students from Harvard and Princeton, they wouldn’t have failed.
138 – did i just state the obvious?? it just seems like noone states this and it’s so clear that the terrorists won.
130 stu
“I haven’t shot a gun since I was in camp 25 years ago.”
You can stand next to me. It’s been almost 20 years.
Nom (112)-
Would that be drugs, money and guns?
Hmm, never did get around to cleaning my gun after the last range trip.
[143] Clot
Remember your Zevon???
“Send lawyers, guns and money, the Sh1t has hit the fan.”
[142] Patient
I think I am standing BEHIND both of you.
I last shot a gun when I was in college. I had a roommate that used to morph her interests into whatever the boyfriend du jour liked in order to keep him around. Anyways, she started dating this guy in the Navy, and after a Christmas visit with him, she went all NRA on us. I didn’t know anything about this until I asked to borrow her stapler for a paper I was working on. I went to get it off her desk and found a box of 9 millimeter bullets. I came back and asked her why she had a box of bullets in plain sight on her desk and she responded non-chalantly, “Oh, it’s for my luger pistol.” And I asked if said pistol was locked up at the shooting range and she said “Oh no, it’s loaded under my bed.”
So a trip to the shooting range was then called for, so us “card carrying liberals” could learn how to safely operate her gun. A few disturbing things were discovered during this trip. First, our friend was volunteering at the range, and all the local gun nuts knew her. More disturbing, however, was the location of the range, right next to the Gainesville Regional Airport.
Later this roommate asked me to notarize her application for a concealed carry permit in Florida, and also proudly displayed her NRA membership certificate on her bedroom door (probably to irritate our other roommate whose parents worked for the ACLU and were former Peace Corps Hippies). When she showed me the certificate, she proudly boasted that she got a deal, because the 1 year membership in the NRA was $35, but she got a 3 year membership for only $105! When she wanted to keep a man she really went all out!
The Luger pistol, NRA membership and all the tacky Frederick’s of Hollywood lingerie purchased for this guy were all put on the good old Visa. Said roommate later got an MBA from UF. When the Navy dude finally dumped her, she lost her interest in guns and went back to Star Trek and online gaming.
Those were good times!
lena,
my opinion is NO. 9/11 was just an excuse for some radical politicians to implement a set of policies that they had been dieing to try for years. They needed an entry point to initiate their policies. 9/11 was it. The economic devastation you are seeing now is the end result of those policies run a muck combined with a group of powerful greedy and opportunistic individuals ( i.e investment banks and others)
and no i am not saying the government was behind 9/11. i am not touching that topic on a blog post.
You could attribute it to 9-11. Truth is, they were looking for an excuse to drop the rates. They were suffering from a massive fallout of the dot-com bubble. They knew dropping rates would allow them to expand the government as much as they did the past 7 years. That’s why they did it.
Even worse Rosairos downtown closed, where am I going get my jumbo home made italian pasta for five bucks on wall street?
max Says:
August 6th, 2008 at 12:21 pm
i also went to one of my favorite rest.
owner told me ,,, has not seen it this bad
in the 21 years in bus.
may have to close the doors.., has cut, and cut,,, but his prices of goods,,, killing him..
Closed sales of SFH for Monmouth County for July according to Mon. MLS
Year- # closed
1995- 462
1996- 661
1997- 555
1998- 766
1999- 773
2000- 634
2001- 645
2002- 695
2003- 704
2004- 800
2005- 677
2006- 515
2007- 526
2008- 435
145 Nom
“I think I am standing BEHIND both of you.”
So long as you’re not shooting at the time…
It is so bad the cock fight places in the bronx are selling fried chicken after the fights so they can break even.
[135] Lena,
Is the US better off militarily, strategically and financially now than on 9/10/01?
Did waging a phantom war in Iraq enhance our international standing and positively impact our Treasury?
How are things going in Afghanistan?
I think OBL may have struck a more lasting blow than even the tragic losses of that terrible day would suggest.
Hmm, I suppose I should get on those July numbers
“Even worse Rosairos downtown closed”
John,
Pearl St.?
I have some stuff to get out so I will finish my 4d triology on Friday. no celebs in this one but we do have a machette weilding cabbie in that one.
Yep they went out of business a few weeks ago. The white horse is hanging on around the corner, slowly but surely all the good back office clerk places to eat lunch are disappearing.
BC Bob Says:
August 6th, 2008 at 1:02 pm
“Even worse Rosairos downtown closed”
John,
Pearl St.?
Shit. My son’s name is Parker.
Why are we talking about the war? I thought it was over by now? Subprime is pretty much getting long in the tooth. I guess by fall we will be on to a new topic.
Re 158, maybe he can be a car valet when he grows up.
maybr i am to low brow for some here,
but leoni’s was/is my favorite rest. in montclair!
John [156],
Starbuck’s on Wall Street and now Rosario’s? Batten down the hatches, it’s gonna be a long walk home.
I think OBL may have struck a more lasting blow than even the tragic losses of that terrible day would suggest.
I totally agree with that.
Sigh, what a world we live in! I work in the financial services industry (a big player with lots of problems) and I am just praying, praying, praying for a severence package! Let me go during these layoffs! Move to the country, build a greenhouse and live off the land.
“Hmm, I suppose I should get on those July numbers”
we want a pitcher, not a glass of water!!
lena
I’ve been telling my hermit-in-the-woods brother the greenhouse has to come next.
Even worse Quiznos on Broad Street right across from Goldman had a line out the door yesterday of Goldman people waiting for $5 footlongs. Two years ago the Goldman folks were on line for million dollar coops at 25 Broad.
BC Bob Says:
August 6th, 2008 at 1:09 pm
John [156],
Starbuck’s on Wall Street and now Rosario’s? Batten down the hatches, it’s gonna be a long walk home.
I am going to retire in 25 years to an empty peaceful place where there are no people. I am thinking about a nice place on the corner of Wall and Broad.
John [165],
LMAO.
john
houseboat?
David RE #94 and 97…What I see when I look at the photos is NOT only the maroon shower curtain/drapes but how badly the photos brought out any qualites in the house. Did you notice the nice granite counter tops in the kitcehn or did you notice that the table was way to crowded into the kitchen….when will people learn..declutter and defurniture…not a word I know but you get what I mean. I likje Woodbridge..nice town, lots of old people who vote NO to school budgets…
John 166
I love it.
#166 John
Too funny.
you really should write a book.
John (166)-
How are you going to fight off all the flesh-eating zombies, a la “I Am Legend”?
but get an editor
[146] gator
Got that beat. MDC police in Mass. had a shooting range in my hometown. It was NEXT TO THE ZOO and the local reservoir!
It was one more reason why we used to say MDC stood for “millions of dumb cops.”
[151] Patient,
depends on your behavior at the GTG ;-)
cheap concert tickets?
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/08/cheap-concert-t.html
[165] Patient,
Told my sister with the sanctuary farm in Maine the same thing. She said it was in progress.
“depends on your behavior at the GTG ;-)”
This is where I offer to bring scotch, but then realize that I don’t want a Dick Cheney/Harry Whittington incident.
#154 BC Bob: Yeah Rosario’s closed. I was down there on Monday,and thought I would treat myself to one of their great heroes.
I had not been there in quite some time, I was shocked to see it was no longer there.
[178]
There will be no shooting in Brigadoon, and no scotch at the range.
Lest anyone is confused.
177 Nom
Excellent.
I’m getting my brother various fruit trees for his birthday and Christmas over the next year. He’s going to get apple, pear and peach trees to put on the property. He’s already got a tremendous vegetable garden.
skep-tic [117],
Geez, with a name like that, you can own BC! :)
#169 Laurie: What is wrong with voting NO to school budget’s? Should we all just blindly vote Yes no questions asked. like the people in my town do.
More Brigadoon insanity:
http://www.realtor.com/search/listingdetail.aspx?zp=07090&mnp=31&mxp=30&typ=7&sid=6e433ec8dcbe46ef92c9c8919c83d593&pg=2&lid=1102021664&lsn=11&srcnt=15#Detail
Front faces North Ave, back yard on the rail tracks. Owners bought for $444K less than two years ago. They made no upgrades yet expect $100K return.
#156 John: The back office places have been disappearing for years, s the back office jobs have been disappearing.
Remember Cassidy’s Liquid Assets?
[177]
I think sis just has apple trees, and one or two only. Not very good apples either but the boarded horses don’t seem to mind.
That is a good idea about giving them trees. I would have to check with her first to see where they can go.
She hasn’t really done the huge garden. They aren’t there very often so they leave that to the caretakers running the B&B portion. I told her before that they ought to expand it so they can bring home fresh veggies after visits.
Potatos grow well there too, and I should encourage her to do that, but I think that they are a lot of work. Easier to trade with the potato farmers.
176 Patient
I wish I would have seen that. At least I got to see a concert, but not for $10!
[184] bystander
Yep, that is nuts. There are better houses in decent hoods for the same money that are languishing. One near me has been on about a year now.
174 Nom – Well they did finally wise up and move the range. But the North Central Florida Sportsman’s Association was up in arms (pun not intended) about the fact that they would have to now have to go out of town all the way to alachua in order to shoot.
I guess someone finally realized it would not be wise to have someone as dumb as my roommate shooting at the airplanes!
Freddie Mac CEO Richard Syron on the earinning conference call said today to the markets, “it would be anextremely ugly mortgage market, if you were looking at a mortgage market now that — that didn’t have the GSEs.”
He forgot to mention the taxpayer bailing out his company.
His comments printed yesterday were even worse when he was accused by former former chief risk officer, David Andrukonis, who recalled telling Syron in mid-2004 that the company was purchasing bad loans that “would likely pose an enormous financial and reputational risk to the company and the country.”
Richard Syron’s repsonse? was “if I had perfect foresight, I would never have taken this job in the first place.”
http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20080805/news_1b5freddie.html
Richard Syron has taken in over 38 million in compensation since 2003 and has over 700k stock options in 5 years of filling the books with bad loans.
How about a perp walk for this guy already?
Nom (180)-
I’m from the South. I don’t think I can fire a gun without drinking.
183 3B – At least you get to cast a vote on your school budget. We don’t even get a vote in Montclair, and we just found out that there is no town oversight on projects owned by the BOE. Not coincidentally, every project runs overbudget and the BOE uses the Montclair taxpayers as a bottomless ATM. So the BOE budgets X, then spends twice as much, and we just have to fork it over, because the project is already in progress and just has to be finished.
Richard Syron back in 2002 on ethics.
“The perp-walk has a salutary effect,” Syron noted.
http://boston.bizjournals.com/boston/stories/2002/11/11/newscolumn3.html
No need to raise more capital. After all, it’s the 9th inning.
“Aug. 6 (Bloomberg) — The states victimized by the collapse of the auction-rate securities market are negotiating with Citigroup Inc., the biggest underwriter of such debt, to pay as much as $100 million to settle claims it fraudulently sold the bonds to investors, a person familiar with the case said.”
“Citigroup may also buy back more than $5 billion in auction-rate securities from investors stuck with the debt since the $330 billion market collapsed six months ago, the person said. New York State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo told the bank on Aug. 1 he was preparing to sue over the sale of the bonds. A multi state task force has also been investigating New York-based Citigroup, along with other Wall Street banks.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a9viskH7ijnI&refer=home
“The government is larger now and it acts as an anchor,”
What good is an anchor on a sinking boat?
Sean [190],
He should be tarred and feathered.
#184 Bystander,
Come. they should get paid 4k a month to live in Brigadoon.
There are much nicer houses for 499k and less in Brigadoon.
Where exactly is Brigahood in Brigadoon?
#197
come = come on
3b..re;183…oh no, nothing is wrong with voting NO on a school budget, I’ve done it several times myself, it’s just that Woodbridge has a large senior population, that’s all…AND they vote No a lot.
184 bystander
oh my
those sellers are in for a nasty shock.
#190
He should be Mike Tyson’s next cell mate.
[189] Gator,
Getting a luger to impress a guy is a bit overboard. Okay, a lot overboard. And I believe that if you want to shoot, it has to be somewhere safe.
[191] Clot,
My range doesn’t permit alcohol. Sorry. Find one that does and I will bring a few beers, but that is where I draw the line. Knowing this crowd, I don’t know that I want them to have scotch and guns at the same time.
Bystander [184],
North Ave. has proven a tough sell. At that price, let’s say even $500k, that property will have one of the highest if not the highest comp on the street.
Maybe it’s a “drama” price ploy in reverse: instead of a bidding war, how about an “under” bidding war for the lowballers in town? Are these jokers HELOCed up the wazoo?
#195 Aaron Says:
August 6th, 2008 at 1:52 pm
“The government is larger now and it acts as an anchor,”
“What good is an anchor on a sinking boat?”
If you drop it through the center, it speeds up the sinking process. Allowing it to become an artificial reef that much faster.
Yep, jeramys and suspenders are still hanging in and it is just a matter of time.
3b Says:
August 6th, 2008 at 1:43 pm
#156 John: The back office places have been disappearing for years, s the back office jobs have been disappearing.
Remember Cassidy’s Liquid Assets?
was this posted yet today???
Freddie Mac, the second-biggest U.S. buyer of mortgages, reported Wednesday a second-quarter loss of $821 million, as the battered housing market and slumping credit conditions again pummeled the company’s bottom line.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/freddie-mac-loses-821-mln/story.aspx?guid=%7BAC1A33F6-B3DD-4F18-A850-B446AEA3B31A%7D&dist=msr_9
JetBlue offers free trip to nowhere from JFK
Wed Aug 6, 2008 12:09pm EDT (Reuters) – Want all the hassle of air travel without going anywhere?
Step up for JetBlue Airways Corp’s trial of bag check and security systems at its new John F. Kennedy International Airport terminal, which is set to open in September.
New York-based JetBlue is looking for 1,000 of its frequent flyers to show up at JFK on August 23 to check bags given to them by the airline, go through security and wait at the assigned gate for their imaginary “flight”.
In return, the airline is promising unspecified “giveaways”, free parking and lunch.
The U.S. No. 7 carrier is taking no chances with the systems at its new Terminal 5, following the chaotic opening of British Airways’ Terminal 5 at London’s Heathrow Airport in March, as baggage systems failed and staff didn’t know their way around the new building.
Only last week, AMR Corp’s American Airlines had to cancel flights from JFK after its baggage system software malfunctioned at a different terminal.
JetBlue, partly owned by Germany’s Lufthansa, is no stranger to snafus at JFK, canceling hundreds of flights and stranding thousands of passengers last year after an ice-storm hit New York.
(Reporting by Bill Rigby; editing by Carol Bishopric)
Regarding the house I posted yesterday in the north end of GR for $319k. I’m told by a local Ridger that it was a crack den and has already sold in an all cash deal. My friend is relieved because “It is on the other side of the country club. I am so glad it is turning over.”
RE #184…AAARRGGGHH…again with the bad photos, at least haf of the furniture should have been removed, those area rugs taken up for photos (look at the hardwood floors!)and according to the photos unless your Calista Flockheart thin you are not fitting into that narrow kitchen…let’s just say if your thin enough to fit in the kitchen you’re not eating, much less cooking
186 nom
Yes – Maine is the second biggest potato growing state after Idaho. My bro taught himself canning and bottling last year, lived this past winter off his own zucchinis, tomatos, yellow squash, carrots, eggplant, etc.
Next summer he’s going to put up a berry cage and start in on the cultivated strawberries, blueberries and raspberries.
Still waiting for the economies of scale, and improvements in energy storage, to reach the point of making installing off-grid solar more viable.
191 clot
“I’m from the South. I don’t think I can fire a gun without drinking.”
Or vice versa?
196 BC
“He should be tarred and feathered.”
Yes. Although I’d settle for fired and tethered.
Great charts on this one..
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/08/freddie-alt-and-default-by-year.html
Alt-A is a coming, as John said subprime was becoming a bit drab.
Laurie [209],
That kitchen is a stunningly narrow 18 x 8. Don’t think the wide-angle lens makes it look any wider.
$444k less than two years ago? They overpaid when they bought it.
Long time silent reader.
If one of you guys has a chance can I get the addresses for the following MLS numbers: 2525565 and 2535696. Thanks in advance
another fun tidbit
Uninsured depositors, including company payrolls, are the next “potential iceberg” for the U.S. economy, said Larry Lindsey, CEO and president of The Lindsey Group economic advisory firm.
“All you need is one case where the uninusured depositors, the big deposits, don’t get covered, and you have the potential that they start to run,” he said. “To run an economy, to have a function that works, you’ve got to have a place where people can keep their money safely … Unfortunately, the way the Congress has structured it now, that’s not the case.”
I am so glad Glen Rock is finally turning around. Such an unsafe town for the children, maybe one day it will be prestigious like Ridgewood.
Crime stats in East Orange are about equal to Glen Rock
off topic -
what bank do you guys recommend for a checking account? just a simple checking account with online bill payment. I opened one with Commerce last year and it’s been a frustrating experience. Their website is terrible and Customer service is horrible.
thanks!
217 tbw – Sorry to confuse, but I meant Glen Ridge, not Glen Rock.
Maybe the turned the house into a crack den to cover the taxes?
With our luck, Jamil and Rediaperwipe will show up at the shooting range GTG. Think BI’s marksmanship is like his stock picking prowess? I wouldn’t be able to figure out where to stand!
fg
Sorry to hear that. I’ve never had a problem with Commerce, except for a few idiots in one branch.
221 stu,
easy directly infront of the bullseye is the safest point
220: Ah, Glen Ridge…it is almost like Ridgewood with a Newark flair.
202 Nom – Yes, my roommate was a doozy. Following all her reincarnations could make your head spin. First she was into Wicca….then she became a church going Catholic girl in the choir (not sure if that was just for the guy, or from fear of Granny cutting her out of the will). One of my favorite memories of her relationship with Mr. Luger were the cookie’s she sent him for Valentine’s Day….with their intitials in red sprinkles – VD!
I never met someone who accumulated so much crap in my life. If it appeared in an infomercial, it was shortly shipped to my apartment. And all purchased on credit cards. It was definitely a good course in Finance 101 for me. This woman had no business or common sense at all. Her acceptance to the Florida MBA program proved to me that they had absolutely no admission standards.
#225 njgator,
Sounds like Colonel Klink and Bergabe must have her on staff by now.
remember the fantastic claims from MIT the other day about hydrigen production? the new electrolyzer tech? It appears that the media machine got ahead of itself. The claims seen in the media bear little resemblence to the actual paper.
here is a breakdown of the claims:
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4378#more
John Says:
August 6th, 2008 at 9:43 am
Goldman is a funny place, many years ago I had an interview there and the reason I was not hired was I was overqualified. The lie they love to tell unwanted candidates. But to be honest my friend works there now and I go to the cafeteria with her around once a month and judging from some of the boneheads in there I think they were telling me the truth.
JJ: it’s not what you know, it’s who you know…..I’m sure about 15% of front office staff can be attributed to some manner of indirect-nepotism/influence-peddling…..
make money Says:
August 6th, 2008 at 10:20 am
ChiFi, Going back to my discussion about the yellow stuff from yesterday. I added to my position buy buying a few more ounces this morning. MY FA does not like it and Peter Schiff himself sent me an e-mail saying that he likes the positions but he thinks I could use some more diversification. He recomended an Australian and German Utility.
My porfolio is now 65% in Gold.
albani: You are well researched and understand the risks. I don’t have to like it, but I can’t argue with your preparation or onions….
In working my way back up the board I was sadly dissappointed to find out NJGators “Mr Luger” wasn’t pro wrestler Lex Luger.
Sorry HEHEHE. But I assure you the situation rose to a level of tackiness befitting the pro-wrestling circuit.
The night the VD cookies were sent out, I returned to my apartment with a friend (who happens to lurk here)after hours of coffee drinking, only to find my roommate lying on the couch, clutching a teddy bear from Mr. Lugar and wearing an electric blue and black lace negligee from Frederick’s of Hollywood (A great “deal” because they’re much less expensive than Victoria’s Secret, you know) and watching An Officer And A Gentleman. My lurker friend promptly broke out into a chorus of “Love Lift Us Up Where We Belong”.
ben Says:
August 6th, 2008 at 12:39 pm
I know for a fact, Bear Stearns was asking people in interviews “Why should we hire you? You aren’t from an Ivy League school”. Maybe if they weren’t so concerned with hiring semi retarded students from Harvard and Princeton, they wouldn’t have failed.
ben: You aren’t telling the whole story…. don’t you think other interviews included this question? “Why should we hire you? Just because you are from an Ivy League school?”
At the end of the day, they are looking for people with a c%cksure attitude. Any legit contender is going to have a good response to that question. In fact, I would argue that it is a generous open-ended opportunity that allows an interviewee to get on their own personal soap box….
its not who you know, its who you blow
“its not who you know, its who you blow”
John,
I imagine your lineup could rival the 61′ Yankees?
Clotpoll Says:
August 6th, 2008 at 1:04 pm
Shit. My son’s name is Parker.
hey how is this for secondary market:
name both twins Parker…
Parker Brothers… eh..two syllables sorry :(
221 stu
“I wouldn’t be able to figure out where to stand!”
I figure any place other than directly behind him.
225 gator
“VD!”
?
[225] Gator,
Wow, sounds like she is certainly flakier than anyone I ever hooked up with. Not that I didn’t date my share of flakes, but phew. Happy to know she is no longer armed. Think the range got moved because of her? If she is as I imagine, the targets were in no danger. Passersby on the other hand . . .
The VD cookies were priceless. Good thing I put my coffee down before reading.
“ben: You aren’t telling the whole story…. don’t you think other interviews included this question? “Why should we hire you? Just because you are from an Ivy League school?”
At the end of the day, they are looking for people with a c%cksure attitude. Any legit contender is going to have a good response to that question. In fact, I would argue that it is a generous open-ended opportunity that allows an interviewee to get on their own personal soap box….”
It doesn’t matter that they took a few good apples in. The fact of the matter is, these Wall St. firms were hellbent on hiring family members, friends, and people that had connections from the Ivy league schools. Even if you hired some good people outside of those circles, it didn’t matter. The in circle morons are the ones that managed to sink the company in the ground.
Glen Rock = Camden
Shhh!! Don’t tell anyone!
237 NJP – For Vicky and Derek, of course. She never really did understand why we giggled so much when she showed them to us : )
Luckily, in this age, the internets allow us keep tabs on these types of people from our past for entertainment value, without actually having to continue to maintain any form of contact.
“VD cookies ”
OH.
Oh g*d.
“I figure any place other than directly behind him.”
njp [236],
Since the market has buried him/her, I would imagine an other place other than directly above the body.
Nothing like VD cookies on vd day.
239 ben
“The fact of the matter is, these Wall St. firms were hellbent on hiring family members, friends, and people that had connections from the Ivy league schools.”
I agree with Chifi’s contention about the interview question, but the above is all too true.
238 Nom – Glad to provide some entertainment value for you today. She is but one of the member of the circus freak show I like to call my college years. I’ll save the stories of my Libertarian Gun Nut firends for another day.
Anyone going to see the police on thursday?
The effect of Bystander pointing out a property on njrereport:
Real Estate agent says “I don’t understand the property got 1 million website hits in its first few days online but it generated only one incidental walk-through by a homeless bum.”
” Bystander Says:
August 6th, 2008 at 1:43 pm
More Brigadoon insanity:
http://www.realtor.com/search/listingdetail.aspx?zp=07090&mnp=31&mxp=30&typ=7&sid=6e433ec8dcbe46ef92c9c8919c83d593&pg=2&lid=1102021664&lsn=11&srcnt=15#Detail
Front faces North Ave, back yard on the rail tracks. Owners bought for $444K less than two years ago. They made no upgrades yet expect $100K return. “
247 Syb
Nope. I went Sunday. Fantastic show. But Thursday the B52′s open instead of Elvis Costello.
where can you get last minute concert tickets? hootie’s playing in morristown tomorrow…would love to see that!
fg
Try craigslist
From Crossing Wall Street:
Let’s Play “Spot the Problem”
November 8, 2008
Morgan Stanley takes $3.7bn hit
December 20, 2007
$9.4 Billion Write-Down at Morgan Stanley
August 5, 2008
Treasury hires Morgan Stanley to analyze Fannie, Freddie
[242] NJP
Little slow on the uptake today???
[246] Gator,
We can compare notes. Your LGN friends and mine. Sounds like we both did a lot of what we called “Dead Squash Hunts”* in college.
*(in the fall, we drove past farms and collected the overripe pumpkins and butternut to use as targets)
“Treasury hires Morgan Stanley”
WTF? Does Goldman know about this?
Gator,
Seriously? A crack den in GR near the Country Club?
I thought the police were ball busters in that town, how did that go on for more than a week?
On deflation and inflation, I think the government’s ideal situation is create sufficient deflation to counter money expansion through currency creation. Hyperinflation doesn’t help the government if it continues to run a deficit. While its able to repay its old debts, new ones will be proportionally larger.
The ideal situation is to drive down its costs through deflation, while printing money to pay for it. This isn’t magic, the printer is essentially confescating the wealth of other dollar debtors. Small debtors have no choice but to go along and potentially go under, such as home owners. Similarly small creditors will go under due to cash flow.
Large creditors benefit, by being able to turn their potentially worthless dollar IOU’s into real assets or productive investments at significantly lower costs. They may see some short term balance/income sheet pain, but these will be paper losses that may even have tax benefits.
The bubbles were driven not by currency creation but credit creation. Additional credit creation is no longer possible, as debtors are at their carrying limit. Many were at that limit even without high energy costs or more expensive imports. They were living on borrowed time via defering interest (negative amort) and borrowing to pay interest (pay primary mortgage with heloc). The federal gov and state/municipal govs have been doing the same thing on a larger scale.
Besides no longer being an option for reflation,real credit expansion is no longer in best interest of primary debtor (US gov). Which by the way also controls interest rates and “printing press”.
The plus side of all this, is hopefully the cash will be recycled by credits into productive investments which create real growth and living standards for everyone. I am cautiously optimistic this will be case, as investors will be shy of credit based products and thus limit over consumption and speculation. Likewise over consumers and speculators won’t be able to make payments on their leverage, even if someone is willing to lend them the money. Especially when facing margin calls, rather than equity gains to be cashed out.
Now the happy ending of growing out of this through productive use of cashflows from monetization of deflated assets depends on sustainable energy.
Basically China needs to funnel cash from t-bonds into green energy investments in US rather than buying more CDS. China will have to write down these CDS, but should be able to get a higher rate of return on real investment as underlying costs should now be lower. The land for the plant. The salaries for workers giving the lower cost of housing and consumer goods/services.
Who pays for this all, primarily the highly leveraged US service worker and the financials. Dependent equities will also take a short term pounding on nominal terms, but real value of dividend yields will be more.
A bartender will no longer be able to live in a luxury condo via option-arm and lease a pre-owned BMW.
Police and other public sector unions will have to take wage and benefit cuts, even if it means towns going bankrupt. No more patrolmen making 80-100k + overtime in NJ. Pensions become 401Ks.
Investment banks will see regression to mean profitability, and bonus compensation. Managing directors at bulge brackets will make 300k instead of $4M. Prop traders at these banks will make 250-400k instead of 500k to $20M.
re: # 252 and 254
Morgan Stanley said it will accept no fees for its assignment, and will receive only $95,000 from the government toward its expenses.
For 95k they won’t be able to hire Goldnam and pay out the lunch and dinner bills nevermind taking the limo transport costs to go down to Virgina.
253 Nom – I once went apartment hunting and took along a LGN friend for the ride. The place was lovely and had a storage closet that was accessible right outside the front door. My dear LGN friend says to me with a straight face “Once you sign the lease, Anarchy Dave will come over and bust through the wall between the living room and this closet. You need to be able to access you guns before the feds come blasting in!”.
255 – I can’t confirm it, but it’s what I’ve been told. And not only in GR, but on Forest Ave, no less!
Snooty? You haven’t experienced major league, world-class snooty until you’ve lived among Europeans.
If you’ve known your neighbors for 30 years and still address them with the formal “Sie”, or “Vous” instead of the familiar “du” or “tu”, – you might be snooty.
If you drive a BMW and pay extra to have the dealer leave the model number off the trunk, – you might be snooty.
If you smirk when you ask someone if they like Biedermeier and they answer by asking you where they brew it, – you might be snooty.
Apologies to Jeff Foxworthy.
255 Doyle – Of course shouldn’t the question be (with true Whitney Houston attitude) – Aren’t they too rich to do crack in GR? Must have been coke!
[257] Gator,
I concede. You had nuttier friends than I did.
oil is down to $118.
bi is getting closer. Only $78 more to go
Wouold be amazing if bi gets this one.
http://last-minute.travelzoo.com/new-york/446537
John Fogerty for $20?
first make a call….this was my not so subtle warning of a f%%%%d-up megalomaniac CEO messing with his star-performers….
chicagofinance Says:
August 31st, 2007 at 4:58 pm
If you own any of these Janus funds, be careful. Including this link is not an endorsement of, or warning against, any of the funds named. However, you should be monitoring performance, as the track records of the funds may now be considered obsolete.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601014&sid=aYfSX8PIGfN4&refer=funds
Then you follow it up 12 months later with the results…..
WSJ
Foreign, Energy Bets Start to Haunt Janus Some Funds Drop To Bottom Decile
From Being on Top
By DIYA GULLAPALLI
August 6, 2008; Page C15
Has Janus jumped off the deep end — again? In the 1990s, the Denver money manager went heavily into tech stocks. When those blew up, it suffered mightily. In recent years, the firm has clawed its way back.
But now Janus Capital Group Inc.’s impressive recent results are threatened by big energy and foreign stock bets that these days are rapidly heading south.
So says J.P. Morgan Chase, which has downgraded the company to “underweight” — meaning, in its parlance, “sell.” Of 15 analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters, only J.P. Morgan’s Ken Worthington now recommends an “underweight” position on Janus. Meanwhile, 12 others recently rated it a “hold,” and two rated it a “buy.”
Janus stock is down 4.7% in the past three months. Because of lower expected revenue, Mr. Worthington lowered Janus’s earnings estimate for the year from $1.24 to $1.22 a share, and sliced the 2009 projection from $1.45 to $1.37.
Janus disagrees with this view on its holdings. “We’ve generated a broad variety of ideas from around the globe” and “not just in commodities and international,” says Jonathan Coleman, Janus co-chief investment officer.
Janus rocketed in the 1990s under founder Tom Bailey but then tanked as its concentrated technology and telecommunications bets imploded. A 47% return at the flagship Janus Fund in 1999 was followed by three years in the red, including a 28% decline in 2002. The firm was later caught up in the market-timing scandal, in which quick trading hurt investors, and paid $226 million in 2004 to settle charges.
Since then, Janus has made a big push under its new chief executive, imported from Goldman Sachs, Gary Black. He moved to improve stock research, expand analyst staff and ditch portfolio managers who don’t fit with its new approach.
Investors have rewarded such fixes with a rich stock valuation and big fund inflows. Janus stock is up 72% in the past two years and trades at a hefty 20.6 times 2009 earnings, according to J.P. Morgan estimates, compared with 17.3 times for domestically focused peers. Even this past quarter, as many asset-management peers saw redemptions amid stock-market declines, Janus’s average assets under management increased 5.5% to $200.1 billion.
On July 28, J.P. Morgan’s Mr. Worthington released a note applauding the great quarterly results. Perception is now changing quickly. He has since noticed performance reversals are coming “hard and fast.”
Some Janus funds have declined badly this year. That includes offerings that have now fallen to the bottom decile year-to-date after being top performers in the past three and five years.
One example is the $6.8 billion Janus Contrarian Fund, managed by David Decker. It’s up 11% in the past three years, or eight percentage points above the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index total return. This year, however, it has declined 18%, four points behind the benchmark. That’s taken it from the first to 94th percentile among large-blend peers.
The fund was recently almost 40% invested in foreign stocks, and had 18% invested in Indian stocks through the end of last year, the latest data available. That has soured, as such emerging markets have seen some of the biggest declines world-wide in 2008. Indian bank ICICI Bank Ltd. is down 52% this year.
Then there is the new weakness in once-booming commodities. The fund’s Forest Oil Corp. is down almost 12% in the past three months, while utilities player NRG Energy Inc. is down 24% this year.
Big funds like the Janus Research and Janus Twenty have seen stunning recent declines for similar reasons. “With energy and commodity investments beginning to roll over, Janus’ best performing funds are at risk,” notes Mr. Worthington.
Meanwhile, Janus’s domestic growth funds were invested 31% outside the U.S., compared with just 12% by the typical U.S. fund through June.
Janus’s Mr. Coleman notes that more than half of its funds were recently in the top two quartiles of their Lipper peer groups on the basis of one-, three- and five-year total returns. The $12.8 billion Janus Twenty’s 14% gain in the past three years is 12 points ahead of the S&P 500. It is in the top-fifth percentile or better for the past year-to-date as well as one, three and five years.
In the past three months, though, Twenty has fallen 12%. That’s about in line with the benchmark but in the bottom 85th percentile of large growth funds.
More than a quarter of the fund is in oil, mineral and agricultural chemicals and operations firms. Top holding Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan is down 11% in the past three months. Brazilian miner Cia. Vale do Rio Doce is down about 20% this year. Also potentially affecting Janus Twenty and Janus Adviser Forty is star manager Scott Schoelzel’s departure in the past year.
Many of the firm’s biggest funds share the same now-falling energy and international stocks. The Janus Fund, Janus Orion fund, Janus Research and Janus Twenty, for instance, all recently held energy firm Hess Corp., which is down 11% in the past three months.
Investors are starting to notice the shift. Janus Contrarian was the firm’s biggest asset gatherer in 2007, pulling in $2.5 billion, but has seen $240 million in sales this year, according to estimates cited by J.P. Morgan. More redemptions could eventually nick earnings, as fund consultants and brokers who only recently got comfortable with Janus again pull back.
Gator,
Forest Ave is a real nice street. You know the town a lot better than I do, but that story just sounds crazy to me. Doesn’t seem to fit, especially not at that location.
That’s not good to hear…
253 nom
“Little slow on the uptake today???”
Mind dulled by sleeplessness. Would that it were due to a three-martini lunch.
266 – Doyle – It’s the stubby end of the street, near Watchung. Not the fancy pants part.
re: #262 Unless someone invents viable fusion power Bi will never be right about his $40 oil call, there is no way OPEC and the Russians are going to give up their profit margin.
#268
As I said, you know it better :)
261 Nom? I win? Really? Do I receive any valuable cash and prizes for this?
ChiFi
Always looking out.
247:
No, but I have a feeling the police are coming to see a lot of people hereabouts.
I looked at a house in Berkley Heights last year. The re agent opens the door and there’s this biker couple in there. Both claim they are home sick. Odd smell in the place. My wife, the re agent, and I all felt light headed after being in the place a minute or so. Would not be surprised if it was a meth lab.
FBI: Hospital CEO arrested in health care scheme
LOS ANGELES – The top executive of a Los Angeles hospital was arrested Wednesday as federal agents raided three medical centers while investigating an alleged scheme to recruit homeless people and bill government programs for millions of dollars in unnecessary health services, authorities said
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080806/ap_on_re_us/health_care_fraud;_ylt=AqymHyfmYcVG6tNjLI3fkZms0NUE
274 Bairen – Thanks. Will add “veritable drug den” to my “bad midtown train commute” argument in order to convince Stu that BH is not a viable option for us next year : )
NJGator,
The Gladstone line is only 3 cars and you almost always have to change at Summit or Newark Broad St unless you want to go to Hoboken.
These are close to selling out!!!
Make sure to order soon!!!
http://cheroes.com/aaheje.html?OVRAW=ERROR&OVKEY=ERROR&OVMTC=content&OVADID=14428018021&OVKWID=0&ysmwa=DTgX3Tp5l8FSCTDGSkqFXmaAWzattfkuThT0g3gxIrUr1bzDSf-oRWt4M5-ghaU1
3B (48),
No recent sales history or tax record data.
Current Years Tax (’07): $10,553.88
277 – I’m a midtown girl, Bairen. Last direct train into NY departs at 7:01AM. Ouch! And a 50 minute train ride into Hoboken isn’t exactly going to make me run out and pay a train town premium to live there either!
#279 Thanks Rich. Would you be able to provide me an address?
3B (281),
3 COLES CT
(Crawling back to bed, summer head cold AGAIN. It’s just wrong.)
#282 Rich: Thanks. Feel better.
[271] Gator,
Yes, you get to come to the Brigadoon GTG this fall and drink my scotch (or whatever else I put out, or that Kettle manages to find in my basement).
And you gotta bring Stu, first because he and I have done too many of the same things (right down to driving NG powered forklifts) and, 2, after my John stories, he will undoubtedly think I am gonna hit on you (and several years ago, he’d be right).
re: 265
“With energy and commodity investments beginning to roll over, Janus’ best performing funds are at risk,” notes Mr. Worthington.
****
Not to mention the portfolios of many NJ Report posters. I smell a pretty big shift/reallocation of capital taking place. The trend is your friend–except when it’s not!
[267] NJP
“mind dulled by sleeplessness”
Knowing where you are, that was my first guess.
#248,
Realtors know the culprit:
“Griiiimmmm!!” (in their best Shatner voice from Wrath of Khan)
[287]
Yes, I think we generated all the hits. I don’t live far from North Ave, and anything along the tracks or with a North or South Ave. address is definitely “Worstfield”
http://www.housingwire.com/2008/08/06/almost-half-of-indianas-re-brokers-see-licenses-yanked/
this is a shame.
Nom,
I disagree. There are some several nice houses on North and South. “Worstfield” would be houses on Central Ave., Cacciola and around the Community Center area on W Broad St. Now, that is Briga-hood.
284 Nom – Booze and Trader Joe’s. you guys have to set a night for this GTG. Stu and I will need to find a sitter or find willing grandparents with whom we can stash the Lil Gator for the evening.
And I best start training for that scotch now. It’s been many years and a bout of mono since I was able to put away 10+ dollar well drinks at Old Wave Night at the Florida Theatre, and still manage to function the next day.
My McSorley’s story in “john” style:
So it is the end of freshman year and finals have ended and most people have left the campus for the summer. Frat house is nearly empty. Me and the nymphomaniac from Wellesley have it to ourselves on a nice warm Friday afternoon, eating pizza and drinking all the Busch left in the Coke Machine we had in our basement because we were too lazy to go to the packie and we were underage anyway, and nympho says “let’s go to New York City.” Neither of us have wheels or money and a place to stay and she says let’s thumb down and stay at my sister’s in brooklyn. Nymph says she is going with or without me, so I go because, well, she’s a nymph, and we hang out a thumb and get a ride to Bedford, and we don’t know where that is but we say, hell, why not. Now it is really late (about midnight) and dark in Bedford, and we are standing in the middle of nowhere when this bronze two-tone el dorado pulls up (the old pimpmobile style). Down come the smoked windows, and the disco blasts out and this skinny guy with a polyester shirt and gold chains asks us what we are doing there, and I tell him we are thumbing to NYC. He laughs, says get in, and tells us that he has to make a stop but will bring us to the “Hutch” after that. He goes into this house and comes out again with a garment bag while Nymph and I finish the lines he left for us. Says is name is Rocky (his real name), and he is going to work. I ask him what he does, and he says, “I’m a cop in Mt. Kisco.” Anyway, he drops us at the Hutch at a gas station, and the attendant says “I have seen everything, but I never saw anyone hitchhike on the hutch” and I said, “well first time for everything.” There is a guy in a Datsun in the rest area with sunglasses on and a six pack, which is not a good sign at 1 a.m., but we are desperate, and Nympho asks him if he is going to the City, and he sez, yeah, why not. And we pile in and he flies into mid-town in about 8 minutes and drops us there. We take a train to brooklyn and who says NYCers have bad manners?. The guy who stopped in front of us leaving the subway, who then whipped it out and started to urinate on the sidewalk apologized to us at least. All told, it took us 6 1/2 hours to hitch down from Amherst to NYC. Not bad. Now we are crashed on sister’s floor, and we are gonna stay the weekend and hit Nymph’s favorite haunts, and the last one is McSorley’s. We get good and bombed on the cheapest and worst beer I have had since, well, earlier in Amherst at Dastardly Dan’s, a townie bar and the only bar we regularly drank in because they wouldn’t card us (except for the Drake), and not ever again until I discovered Iron City Beer. I am telling the guys next to us the story of thumbing down from Amherst, and they think we are nuts, but they buy us drinks because I started that weekend with about $40 and Nympho had even less. The last night her sister stays out so we get the bed which was a damn site better than the floor, which is the only place I got to sleep whenever I crashed in the City. No interesting sex with nympho until the trip back. We don’t have enough cash to get a bus ticket back to Amherst but I drove for a PVTA company that semester and convinced the Peter Pan driver to take us for what we had left on us. Bus isn’t that crowded but Nymph and I stay way in the back for obvious reasons.
[291] Gator,
I am actually toying with the idea of a Saturday afternoon in late Sept., and this will probably be a family friendly GTG since it will be at my new house and the little nom will be home.
Nom
That was a good one. Thank you for keeping me from being bored.
Next Week: “John” Deplume at the Monster Challenge in Killington with the slightly crazy sorority nymph; the truly crazy Steve Morey and other libertarian gun nuts; a stage appearance at the Pickle Barrel; and the disappearing Fiat that only runs in reverse.
Stay tuned.
Nom
I hope I am allowed to your gtg. I need to meet you in person.
BTW, maybe our cook off should be at your house?
[294] Lost,
Thanks. I am much more boring now than I was back then, when my nickname among my hometown friends was “The Captain,” all of my cars had names, and people knew better than to dare me to do anything.
293 Nom – Scotch and Noggin. Perfect together.
Kettle #160:
Leone’s – That’s the restaurant I was referring to earlier.
dang, the work thing!
I must have missed parts 2 & 3 of John’s trilogy!
Well I don’t remember a lot of stories for various reasons. I have to rely on other people who were there to tell me. Some of them scare me. And the ones I do remember, I don’t think anyone would believe because if I wasn’t there, I wouldn’t believe it myself.
Nom,
How old is little Nom? Maybe we won’t need a babysitter after all!
http://freespeech.vo.llnwd.net/o25/pub/images/cavity.jpg
[302] Stu
Little nom is 5. I also have an au pair so I may see if she wants to keep the kinder occupied, but that remains to be seen.
[298] gator
Ah, I see you see the mesmerizing effect of Moose T. Moose.
Little nom doesn’t much care for Noggin anymore. Unfortunately, her cousins introduced her to Spongebob and Fairly Oddparents, much to our chagrin.
There will be a playroom as well, so I think that it is possible to have the kinder separated. Do make grandpere plans but the family GTG is still likely.
306 Nom – I wasn’t sure how old Little Nom was. Lil Gater is actually kinda partial these days to They Might Be Giants, Dan Zanes and anything Pixar.
My kid is being proudly raised by TV!
Argh! #306 me. I have to wipe Stu out of the preferences of my work laptop!
263 make money
If you’re into John Fogerty, he’s also closing Musikfest in Bethlehem, PA, Sunday evening. Tickets range $24-46, but only pay the $24. Show is outdoors and you’re better off hanging out right outside the waist high chicken wire fence, across from the beer, wine and food stands. There is a lot more room to dance or just move around and its the same show as the other side of the chicken wire. Who needs seats?
Earth Wind and Fire right now. I’m thinking about hitting the Jethro Tull show tomorrow night…
http://www.musikfest.org/lineup/2008.asp
#303 kettle1
Looks like DOHS and NAMBLA have combined forces.
292 nom
Poppa Beer always said, “Son, there ain’t no bad beer. There’s good beer and better beer.”
While I understand his sentiment, I have to say that Iron City is on my short list of beers that I would rather not sample again. Damn, that stuff is vile.
[310] I lived with a bunch of guys from Pittsburgh at UMass. They were estatic when one of them came back with a few cases of ICB.
I thought it tasted as though they used it to cool the steel, then bottled it.
McSorley’s bottled their stuff for awhile. Nympho found it, which is what led her to suggest the NYC road trip. That was really vile. McSorley’s is better on tap.
#295 Nom
Do you mean the “Mogul Challenge” at Killington? Was that you on the couch in the snow on Bear Mountain?
[306] Ah, the japanese baby sitter. Yes, little nom has figured out the DVD but not multiple remotes. Not yet. Just watched Bugs Life and getting to bed was a battle.
[312] No, the Monster Challenge was something else. That installment has just been drafted. Maybe I will post it tomorrow.
If there was a couch, I would have been on it, but no, wasn’t me. Haven’t skiied Killington or VT in about 8 years.
“My kid is being proudly raised by TV!”
The Little Patients don’t have a nanny either, because Pixar is cheaper.
I may have to introduce the 5 y/o Little Patient to the 5/y/o Little Nom.
311 Nom
I thought I had seen it around lately, so I looked it up. One review struck a nerve so I feel like I have to share. Kinda reads like John wrote it:
“The beer smelled of St. Patty’s day late night at an Irish bar, booze, vomit and sweat. After that it wasn’t too bad…”
And yes, now that I see a picture of the bottle, I can say without question that it is still available. BTW – Now brewed by Pabst.
313 Nom – You need to get Little Nom an overpriced universal programmable remote from Harmony. Stu got one and programmed into one button all the steps that may need to be performed in order to turn the DVD on or off on our home theatre system. Lil Gator knows if he wants to watch a movie all he has to do is pop in the disc and then press the popcorn button. It has enabled us to get a lot more done in our house.
315 NJP – Who needs a nanny when you have the $4.99/month Netflix plan?
From Kabloomberg:
AIG Posts Third Straight Quarterly Loss on Housing
American International Group Inc., the world’s biggest insurer by assets, posted a
$5.36 billion loss
as writedowns tied to the housing slump wiped out profit for a third straight quarter. Shares fell 8.2 percent in extended trading.
[316]
So I see it hasn’t gotten any better after 25 years.
[319]
Kabloomberg. I love it. Wonder it NYC’s number one Red Sox fan is gonna sue for infringement?
“writedowns tied to the housing slump wiped out profit for a third straight quarter.”
That CAN’T be true!!
bi (and S&P) said there would be no more writedowns!!!!!
Nom
How old is your au pair? ;-)
[317] NJP
“I may have to introduce the 5 y/o Little Patient to the 5/y/o Little Nom.”
Yes, definitely. Little nom will have a basement playroom in the new house. With its own potty. Parent’s dream. Mrs. Patient and Mrs. deplume can drink espresso. We will be at the office.
[325] Syb
19. Why?
Gotta catch the train to Brigadoon. Peace out.
327
curiosity, that’s all. Most au pairs I’ve seen around madison are quite cute, I’d say.
Sybarite:
Don’t give away my secret reason for wanting to move to Madison!
Grim – 256 in moderation, long post about inflation/deflation.
Make that 257 and its up now. Although so far back know one has read. Sigh:)
[328-329]
“Sitting on the park bench,
Eying little girls with bad intent,
Aqualung, my friend”
Booze, Guns, Jethro Tull. I think we hit all the high notes today, kids.
Booze, Guns, Jethro Tull.
Thems the makins of a militia
From the WSJ:
Mortgage Delinquencies
Accelerated During 2007
Financial System
Taking Harder Hit
Than Seen Earlier
By RUTH SIMON
August 7, 2008
Mortgages issued in the first half of 2007 are going bad at a pace that far outstrips the 2006 vintage, suggesting that the blow to the financial system from U.S. housing woes will be deeper than many people earlier estimated.
An analysis prepared for The Wall Street Journal by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. shows that 0.91% of prime mortgages from 2007 were seriously delinquent after 12 months, meaning they were in foreclosure or at least 90 days past due. The equivalent figure after 12 months was just 0.33% for 2006 prime mortgages.
Evidence that lax lending standards were leading to higher mortgage delinquencies first emerged in late 2006. The first major casualty of the subprime credit crisis, New Century Financial Corp., imploded in early 2007. Yet the data from the FDIC and others suggest that lenders didn’t substantially tighten standards until at least July or August 2007, when credit jitters hit Wall Street and financial stocks began to swoon.
The FDIC’s analysis was based on mortgage data provided by LoanPerformance, a unit of FirstAmerican CoreLogic Inc. LoanPerformance says it tracks more than 95% of mortgages that were bundled into securities by financial institutions, not including those securitized by government-sponsored mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Data on other classes of mortgages suggest the same trend. Freddie Mac reported Wednesday that 1.38% of the 2007-vintage loans it purchased were seriously delinquent after 18 months compared with 0.38% of 2006 loans at the same point in their life. Freddie Mac generally purchases loans made to creditworthy borrowers.
Last month, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. said it expects losses on prime mortgages that weren’t securitized and remain on its books to triple from current levels. The increase in bad loans is driven mostly by jumbo mortgages originated in the second half of 2007, a company spokesman said.
Until these bad loans are fully digested, “foreclosures will remain at record highs, the financial system will be under severe stress and the broader economy will sputter,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Economy.com. One piece of good news, he said, is that loans originated in the fourth quarter of 2007 and early 2008 appear to be performing better.
334 Grim – My LGN Friends took me on a “family” field trip once to see militia darling and conspiracy theorist Chuck Harder recording his radio show in Florida. He used to frequently discuss “black helicopter” theories and all sorts of other weird stuff.
Harder took one look at our rag tag bunch and pronounced us “wholesome”. We then all decamped to the nearest Cracker Barrel for dinner. Gator loves the Cracker Barrel because it’s the only place she knows of where she can’t eat most of the vegetables because they’re not vegetarian.
God I miss the south sometimes!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chuck_Harder
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_helicopter
Grim – I tried to post a lovely story about my 1990s field trip to see a radio host who liked to talk about the “black helicopters”. My post seems to disappear into thin air, yet I get no message that I’m in moderation. Any ideas?
True story. Back in the day I got a ride home from college with a bunch of law students, one of who is now a fed judge. Aqualung had just come out and they had a cassette–or maybe an 8 track. Anywho, had to listen to AL and only AL for 18 hours. Thank god there were also drugs in the car. Just seeing the album cover takes me back and sets my teeth onedge.
Just saw The Dark Night…..Chicago on display…..the scene where Gordon walks into Dent’s office, the Downtown GSB building is over Dent’s (his) left shoulder…..
Review? Very, very good movie BUT I just can’t stand the insipid Hollywood politics. It’s to the point where even when I may agree with the subtle/not-so-subtle references, I am just plainly offended by the utter presumption of usurping a platform for an ulterior motive……also, holding a gun to a child’s head is completely unnecessary to forward the plot, and is just a mean thing to do to some of the kids that will invariably see this movie in some form…..
Courtesy of CR:
http://www.nysun.com/business/commercial-rental-rates-plummet-in-manhattan/83300/
Commercial Rental Rates Plummet in Manhattan
Bret Faaah-vruh to the Jets
http://link.brightcove.com/services/link/bcpid203719194/bclid86272812/bctid1715682445
Realtors live close to the edge
By Stephanie Armour, USA TODAY
Jack Jentzen never saw it coming. Four years ago, as a real estate agent in Elgin, Ill., he was enjoying the rewards of the most frenzied U.S. housing market in decades, and money poured in.
Now he’s fighting to keep his home.
The real estate slump that hit in 2006 eventually stifled home sales, shrank prices and unleashed a wave of foreclosures. And as it did, the hardest-hit victims included a group of people, such as Jentzen, who never imagined they had anything to fear: real estate agents themselves.
Tens of thousands of Realtors have been forced to quit the industry in the past couple of years. Some are enduring their own agonizing foreclosures. Agents who had staked their fortunes on galloping home sales now struggle to afford health care, utilities and other basics.
Some, like Jentzen, are trying to build new careers. Others are pursuing drastic and aggressive tactics to tough out the housing slump, from embracing new marketing plans to spending thousands to earn advanced designations they hope will help them stand out from the competition. Some say the housing collapse is undermining their professional self-esteem.