“The realty industry is quickly becoming a shadow of what it was”

From USA Today:

Jack Jentzen never saw it coming. Four years ago, as a real estate agent in Elgin, Ill., he was enjoying the rewards of the most frenzied U.S. housing market in decades, and money poured in.
Now he’s fighting to keep his home.

The real estate slump that hit in 2006 eventually stifled home sales, shrank prices and unleashed a wave of foreclosures. And as it did, the hardest-hit victims included a group of people, such as Jentzen, who never imagined they had anything to fear: real estate agents themselves.

Tens of thousands of Realtors have been forced to quit the industry in the past couple of years. Some are enduring their own agonizing foreclosures. Agents who had staked their fortunes on galloping home sales now struggle to afford health care, utilities and other basics.

Some, like Jentzen, are trying to build new careers. Others are pursuing drastic and aggressive tactics to tough out the housing slump, from embracing new marketing plans to spending thousands to earn advanced designations they hope will help them stand out from the competition. Some say the housing collapse is undermining their professional self-esteem.

“I’m looking at jobs that are way lower than what I was once making,” says Jentzen, 43.

“The realty industry is quickly becoming a shadow of what it was,” says Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Economy.com. “For those who remain employed, their compensation has plunged. Realtors were also among the most aggressive housing investors. Many made the error of working and investing with leverage in the same industry, something financial planners counsel strongly against.”

“Some members are saying there are too many Realtors out there who are bringing additional competition, and a shake-up is expected,” says Lawrence Yun, the NAR’s chief economist. “We do anticipate lower membership going forward since housing recovery is taking longer.”

Robert Millosh, a Realtor for Re/Max in Middlesex County, N.J., says he’ll need to find some other job to stay in the area. He used to earn at least $30,000 annually as a Realtor. Right now, he says, home sales are so dismal that he’s looking at a job change or a move to Florida or Pennsylvania.

“I am almost broke and struggling to get by from day to day,” says Millosh, who is 45 and single. “I’m having an estate sale for most of the furniture I have that I don’t need. My life has been ripped apart.”

Milltown, N.J., is a quaint small town, the kind of place families want to move to. They have an all-American Fourth of July celebration, with a parade, fishing, rodeo, a band in the park and fireworks at night. Millosh says it would be a hard place to abandon, but he might not have a choice.

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412 Responses to “The realty industry is quickly becoming a shadow of what it was”

  1. grim says:

    From the Daily Record:

    Report: New Jersey’s tax burden still heaviest in U.S

    New Jersey taxpayers bear the heaviest state and local tax burden in the country for the third year in a row, according to a report released on Wednesday by a fiscal policy organization in Washington, D.C.

    The Tax Foundation found the state’s residents paid 11.8 percent of their income in state and local taxes. The national average is 9.7 percent.

    Taxpayers in New York and Connecticut aren’t far behind. Residents in those states pay 11.7 percent and 11.1 percent of their income to state and local taxes, respectively.

    They are the only three states where taxpayers give up more than 11 percent of their income in state and local taxes, according to the report.

    “The people in that region have set a high standard for acceptable government services,” said William Ahern, a spokesman for the foundation. The large number of high-paying jobs around New York City drives up taxable property values in the area, he said.

    “It’s certainly not surprising New Jersey is in the top five or six, but being No. 1 and beating out New York takes some doing,” said Ahern, who noted that New York held the top spot every year from the late 1970s to 2005.

    Compared with other states, New Jersey also has among the highest local tax rates and the most taxing entities, Ahern said.

  2. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    PMI Group swings to quarterly loss after charge

    PMI Group swung to a net loss of $246.3 million, or $3.03 a share, in its fiscal second quarter. Last year, the company reported a profit of $83.8 million, or 95 cents a share. Results were hurt by a $225.9 million loss related to increases in paid claims and loss adjustment expenses and loss reserve additions at U.S. mortgage insurance operations. Analysts had been expecting the firm to post a loss of $1.93 a share, according to data compiled by FactSet.

  3. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    Barclays profit drops 35%, holds dividend steady

    Bank takes write-downs of 2.8 billion pounds, remains cautious on outlook

    U.K. lender Barclays said Thursday that its first-half net profit fell 35% after a further drop in the value of its credit market investments, and added that conditions will remain tough for some time.

    “The conditions in the market that we have seen over the course of the last 12 months are as difficult as we have experienced in many years,” Varley said.

    “It would be wrong in this review to suggest that the market conditions over the foreseeable future will be anything other than tough, not least because we are now seeing the impact of slowing economies around the world,” he added.

  4. RPatrick says:

    only 30K a year?

    One of my support staff when I was on nights was also in RE. Kept being “concerned” for doing all the RN stuff when he knew I could make alot more as a RE agent or a Broker.

    3 percent of a 600-900K is alot of money

  5. chicagofinance says:

    Depeche Mode update via rumor:
    The tour will be starting in May 2009 in south of Europe. The Band’s planners made performances on major European summer festivals.

    Suffer well…….

  6. grim says:

    3 percent of a 600-900K is alot of money

    And not as easy as you think…

  7. grim says:

    From the NYT:

    Tempest for a Bank That Bet on Risky Loans

    A cheerful sign outside the glistening offices of Bank United beckons consumers to tap into “Mortgage-ade.” Another promises a “59 Minute Mortgage.”

    But easy money, it turns out, has created enormous problems at Bank United, Florida’s biggest regional bank.

    By aggressively peddling a popular type of high-interest loan to risky borrowers, the bank tripled its profits in 2006 as real estate on Florida’s Gold Coast peaked, only to lose nearly $100 million in late 2007 and early 2008 as the market cratered. Now, its chief executive, Alfred R. Camner, is scrambling to raise $400 million in capital, an amount nearly eight times the bank’s shriveled value on the stock market.

    Analysts and a corporate governance group are monitoring the bank’s asset quality and asking why Mr. Camner was allowed, with board approval, to amass a pool of volatile loans that at one point represented 75 percent of the bank’s mortgage portfolio, despite what has since proved to be great risk.

    In many ways, Bank United symbolizes the excesses exhibited by the nation’s banks as home prices soared in recent years — and the pain that is afflicting them now that home prices are falling. Florida has been hit especially hard by the housing slump, and so has Bank United.

    In an interview, Mr. Camner, who is also the bank’s controlling shareholder, testily defended the bank’s strategy. “We did it for over 10 years,” he said, referring to the bank’s use of a risky but highly attractive product known as an option adjustable-rate mortgage.

    “For a very long time, it was an excellent performing package.” he said. “It gave the borrower a chance to manage his money. If they qualified, it was an excellent loan.”

    He also dismissed as “completely absurd” and “idiotic” concerns that the bank’s practices have eroded the strength of the bank’s assets, despite a recent revision by one brokerage firm of its shares to underperform.

  8. RPatrick says:

    Grim~

    Looked like those RE agents in my area had more money than they knew what to do with.

    Same with Mtg Brokers 3points on a 500K loan for options arms ect for a couple hours worth of work and you did’nt even have to get the Audi or the BMW to look like your clients :)

    Oh well that online salary thing shows that the guy at work driving the BMW 3 makes 28K and the doctors get passed by high school diplomates because they are OT eligible and the MD’s are not.

    Wish them all the best of luck, I hopefully will be maxing out my 401K, Roth and 529 (up to NYS deduction) this year.

    BTW any suggestions on where to get a good used bike/ brand suggestions? As in with pedals.

  9. bairen says:

    #4 RPatrick

    I saw that too. I think if you were a full time re agent and only earning in the 30s during this bubble you were in the long line of business. Maybe the guy should branch out and do rentals.

  10. bairen says:

    I think John has a relative teaching English in China.

    http://www.chinabounder.blogspot.com/

    This guy wrote about his social life in china in quite detail. Stories about his blog hit the mainstream press in China in 07 and he went into hiding. His stuff from 2006 would make John blush and proud. I wouldn NOT read his stuff from a workstaton computer.

  11. grim says:

    Looked like those RE agents in my area had more money than they knew what to do with.

    Probably because the losers tend not to stand out so much.

  12. Clotpoll says:

    The latest from Wachovia, courtesy of a friend who used to be a staff appraiser there:

    “Well…….they did it………everyone got notice today. The Somerset and Parsippany offices are already closed. They have 1000 appraisers nationwide and axed 900 today. They don’t feel the market will bottom out until the second quarter of 2010!”

  13. Clotpoll says:

    Patrick from Spongebob (4)-

    “3 percent of a 600-900K is alot of money”

    I have to know: do you really think your pal made 3% of every deal?

    It is amazing how many people think the gross commission all ends up in the agent’s pocket.

  14. Clotpoll says:

    AIG looking ugly this AM.

  15. Clotpoll says:

    Mike Morgan talking gold confisc@t!on this AM. Cool!

    http://tinyurl.com/6l85eg

  16. BC Bob says:

    “They don’t feel the market will bottom out until the second quarter of 2010!”

    Clot [14],

    Well close enough. My target has always been 2011. At that time we will be at the bottom of the L. Going forward, the straight line at the bottom of the letter will be extended for a long duration. Longer than most can imagine. Sorry, no V in this market. Retiring on your pos? OOPS, better make alternate plans.

  17. BC Bob says:

    “Freddie, in the second quarter, wrote down the value of its subprime and Alt-A portfolio by $1 billion. Freddie is claiming that they can hold these securities to maturity and not have to take a loss, because over time, the dire predictions of defaults on these loans just won’t come to pass. Freddie’s subprime and Alt-A portfolio is about $130 billion. Think of that. Just $1 billion in writedowns.”

    “I think Armando Falcon, a former head of OFHEO, said it best when I interviewed him yesterday:”

    “They’ve only written them down by let’s say five or 6% total over the past few quarters. If those were sold on the market they would get maybe 50 cents on the dollar for these securities. At some point they can’t delay the inevitable about having to mark these assets down to their true market value. They are now holding them close to book value, based on the theory that these are temporary impairments. As the market continues to decline into next year, it will be clear that these aren’t just temporary impairments. Then the government will not be able to allow this forbearance on recognizing losses much longer.”

    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

  18. Cindy says:

    (9) bairen “Maybe the guy should branch out and do rentals.”

    The only successful R/E folks I know personally that are still active here in CA are involved in rentals. One is a builder and one an agent. But their income at this point is derived from their rental properties. Being property managers was once their side job. They are still active as a builder and an agent respectively but with so little activity that the rentals are now their mainstay. I believe they will both weather the crisis here because of that.

  19. Stu says:

    Jamba Juice CEO and CFO quit.

    Goodbye Jamba Juice.

  20. Stu says:

    This is pretty funny.

    Yesterday Jim Cramer claimed Jimmy Carter was dead!

    August 6, 2008 Cramer on Jimmy Carter: “May He Rest in Peace”

    http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2008/08/cramer_on_jimmy.html

  21. still_looking says:

    …I can practically quote the movie line for line…[sad, eh?] after having seen it sometimes 2-3 times daily- Mr. Still-Looking finally got “Ratatouille” and now it’s over and over and over and over “Gusteau” and “Linguini”

    Nom Deplume Says:
    August 6th, 2008 at 7:47 pm
    [306] Ah, the japanese baby sitter. Yes, little nom has figured out the DVD but not multiple remotes. Not yet. Just watched Bugs Life and getting to bed was a battle

    sl

  22. RPatrick says:

    Clot

    1. That Patrick is an idiot. I hope you are trying to be funny and not lumping me into the same pile as ReInvestor?
    2. I know a lot of people get their slice of that pie. But still even 1.5 percent of someone moving 10-20 deals a year at Edgewater/Fort Lee ect prices is like 180K ish. Our MD’s make 125-180K and these guys only have a car lease payment.
    3. My MD’s have sometimes remarked they are doing the wrong thing sometimes. Which is sad.

  23. Secondary Market says:

    My sister was a processor for an Allied Home Mortgage Branch in South Jersey and thankfully with a little advice from me and foresight she was able to leave before sh** really hit the fan.
    The net branch was co-owned by two former car dealer friends who during boom time bragged about their 7 series BMW’s and their great success with just a H.S. Diploma. Well fast forward to 2008.. 1 is in jail for 18 months for commercial lending fraud (with pancreatic cancer)and the other shut down the office and now is landscaping. Karma’s a biTc*.

  24. still_looking says:

    why?

    sl

    RPatrick:
    “3. My MD’s have sometimes remarked they are doing the wrong thing sometimes. Which is sad.”

  25. kettle1 says:

    clott,

    there have been reports that DHS briefed BofA Citi and several of the other big banks about locking down safe deposit boxes and only allowing the removal of personal documents, not shiny metals or other valuables in the case of a “state of emergency”.

    This horse will ride yet again before its over with.

  26. Rich In NNJ says:

    From MarketWatch

    U.S. weekly initial jobless claims rise 7,000 to 455,000

    First-time claims for state unemployment benefits remained unusually high in the latest week as more workers qualified for regular benefits under an unrelated extended federal benefits program, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Claims for the week ending Aug. 2 rose to 455,000, a gain of 7,000 from the 448,000 claims reported a week prior. The four-week average of new claims rose by 26,750 to 419,500, the highest since July 2003. Continuing unemployment claims rose by 31,000 to 3.3 million.

  27. BC Bob says:

    Just another day at the office; AIG posts a $5.36B loss, Toyota profits plunge on weak US economy, record drop in house prices[UK, month of July], another writedown by Barclay’s and Syron says that he does not anticipate Freddie tapping the Fed. Oh, he also states that the mortgage market would be extremelty ugly if not for the gse’s.

    I guess we are just witnessing a comedy rather than a nightmare. Don’t worry though, the fed is steering the ship.

  28. Clotpoll says:

    Starfish (24)-

    “My MD’s have sometimes remarked they are doing the wrong thing sometimes. Which is sad.”

    There’s a statement I can back. There is no doubt that a successful agent makes a surgeon-like wage, often without delivering the same type of result. Of course, when we’re discussing agents who make this kind of money, we’re only talking about the top 3-4% of the group. Most RE agents in NJ last less than one year in the business, do 1-2 transactions, then go referral.

    However, an agent who can deliver some value-add will always make good money. The fact remains: if you help someone, that person will tell someone else. That’s how you build a real career in RE.

  29. Cindy says:

    #14 – Re Wachovia – Can someone explain this fav 19 list? What happens going forward? Do they add more financial firms to the list after 8/21?

  30. Clotpoll says:

    vodka (27)-

    Yep. You realize how cynical the gubmint is when you hear about stuff like that. The FDIC’s also training bank examiners and luring back their retired examiners like there’s no tomorrow. But hey…our banking system’s fine!

    Everybody at the top knows how this thing is going to play out (not well). The public pronouncements from mouthpieces like Colonel Klink are just a smokescreen, to keep the sheeple narcoticized.

  31. Clotpoll says:

    Cindy (31)-

    It’s the 19 institutions protected by the more-stringent short selling provisions put in place in July. The ulterior premise was to tamp down the practice of naked short selling, which is already illegal. Under the new rules, short selling in the fav19 must be accomplished by first borrowing the shares. Those borrowed shares- which are then sold by the borrower- must also be delivered on the same day. Here’s the list:

    * BNP Paribas Securities Corp.

    * Bank of America Corp.

    * Barclays PLC

    * Citigroup Inc

    * Credit Suisse Group

    * Daiwa Securities Group Inc

    * Deutsche Bank Group AG

    * Allianz SE

    * Goldman Sachs Group Inc

    * Royal Bank ADS

    * HSBC Holdings Plc ADS

    * JPMorgan Chase & Co

    * Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc

    * Merrill Lynch & Co Inc

    * Mizuho Financial Group Inc

    * Morgan Stanley

    * UBS AG

    * Freddie Mac

    * Fannie Mae

  32. Frank says:

    “Milltown, N.J., is a quaint small town, the kind of place families want to move to. They have an all-American Fourth of July celebration, with a parade, fishing, rodeo, a band in the park and fireworks at night. Millosh says it would be a hard place to abandon, but he might not have a choice.”

    My friend, a RE agent in Milltown, NJ is having her best year ever, this guy is a looser. Weeeeeeeeeee

  33. Tom says:

    “Yesterday Jim Cramer claimed Jimmy Carter was dead!”

    What an idiot.

    One of his quotes was also about how oil drilling platforms are safe and he knows because he’s been to them. First maybe he should be come an expert at understanding the market before understanding oil drilling.

    Never liked Joe Scarborough either.

  34. Cindy says:

    (33) Thank you for the list Clot. I thought Wachovia was there. Not! But Goldman Sachs sure is. Will the SEC renew the list come 8/21? Add more – what do you think is going to happen?

  35. RPatrick says:

    26 Looking-

    Because they worked their tails off straight A’s in high school, near perfect grades in college to compete against US, European, Indian and Asian Med students for seats in Med school, did 4 years of med school took on debt to do so and then did 3-5 years of residency and maybe a fellowship. Then have 20-50K of malpractice a year, to make 125-200K a year for GP.

    And then as one I worked with said “Send your kids to plumbing school, my plumber drives a nicer car, makes more money, and gets every deduction under the sun. And he got out and was working 10 years earlier than I was.”

  36. BC Bob says:

    “Not! But Goldman Sachs sure is.”

    Ironic isn’t it? The largest short sellers in the world.

  37. Stu says:

    Cindy,

    The inability to short the firms in the fav 19 is just like the rest of Paulson and Bergabe’s window dressings. I truly believe that their strategy is to continue postponing the inevitable crash in hopes that something (another bubble) will reboot the economy. Just because these stocks can’t be shorted does not mean that they can’t go down. Shorting is a tough and dangerous game and as a percentage of total shareholders in an equity, the number of shares held short is usually minuscule. It is not the short sellers that are killing the fav 19. It is the terrible decisions made by the management of the fav 19 companies. Saying shares borrowed short move equity prices down is like saying shared held long should drive equity prices up. This is ludicrous.

  38. Confused In NJ says:

    Trading in a 2003 Subaru Legacy tomorrow for a 2008 Subaru Legacy. Six years and all I did was change the oil. Interesting point is Geico dropped the Insurance Rate by (-$1.50), because the new Suby has more safety & theft features. I figured I’d pay more? Now if I could only get NJMVS to give me a 12/2012 inspection sticker, I’d be all set for the last lap. They won’t though, 8/2012 it is.

  39. Clotpoll says:

    Cindy (36)-

    Wachovia is not there, because Bergabe and Klink have decided the regional banks are expendable (notice the absence of WaMu from the list). Only their closest friends and cronies are deemed “too big to fail”.

    Renew the list on 8/21? Bank on it. Hell, the deposit bottle window is already open forever; the bailout will last as long as deemed necessary.

    What do I think is going to happen? Two paths: a) 1929; b) Japan, the past 15 years.

  40. Stu says:

    And those initial claims numbers were hideous. We are IN recession and each month that the fed does not raise interest rates hoping for the unlikely unknown economic impetus will make the eventual fall that much larger. The numbers are fudged and even the impetus rebates can’t overcome the downfall of our service economy. When Walmart can’t even make their numbers, look out!

    Forget worrying about where to put your money. Just make sure you have enough for a decent lightly used apple cart.

  41. Tom says:

    Stu: 39

    < Applause >

  42. John says:

    Doctors don’t deserve a nickle more pay. In the old days of commie russia where everyone got paid the same, you could be a phone operator or a MD and get paid the same. Guess what the people who loved medicine went to medical school and became doctors even though they made the same. When I went to stony brook the doctors were mostly doing it for bragging rights or to be rich, very few cared about the patients. We don’t pay teachers, social workers, zooligists, libraians etc. much money and they all require very expensive masters and doctorate degrees. If anything I would like to see doctors salaries lowered. A doctor making 300K cracks me up when they complain how they used to make 400K to a social worker making 40K.

    BTW they get straight a’s cause they cheat like crazy.

    Garabage Man is the best deal going. In NY you have to be over 21 to be a cop or fireman and with the list you may not start till you are 25, which means retirement is not till 45. NYC Garbage men get paid more and you can start the day you turn 18 so you can retire at 38.

    RPatrick Says:
    August 7th, 2008 at 9:11 am
    26 Looking-

    Because they worked their tails off straight A’s in high school, near perfect grades in college to compete against US, European, Indian and Asian Med students for seats in Med school, did 4 years of med school took on debt to do so and then did 3-5 years of residency and maybe a fellowship. Then have 20-50K of malpractice a year, to make 125-200K a year for GP.

    And then as one I worked with said “Send your kids to plumbing school, my plumber drives a nicer car, makes more money, and gets every deduction under the sun. And he got out and was working 10 years earlier than I was.”

  43. Clotpoll says:

    BC (38)-

    But we all know GS only shorts by taking same-day delivery on the shares before selling them.

    [sarcasm off]

  44. Stu says:

    I hope this is a Yahoo Finance typo…

    S&P futures vs fair value: -11.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -95.2.

    Or maybe I don’t ;)

  45. John says:

    You can short the 19 folks, you just can’t naked short. You are not supposed to naked short anyhow. This is just the case where they are actually enforcing the rules. Kinda like by radio city music hall they stop you from jay walking but you can do it everywhere else even though it is illegal.

  46. Clotpoll says:

    I’d hate to be operated on by a surgeon who’s only in it for the money.

    Just like I’d hate to have an RE agent who’s just in it for the money.

  47. njpatient says:

    “Bank takes write-downs of 2.8 billion pounds”

    That CN’T be true!! bi (and S&P) said there would be no more writedowns!!!

  48. lostinny says:

    5 ChiFi
    Why would DM tour? There’s no album to support.

  49. make money says:

    Clot 17

    That’s why my place of storage is Australia.

  50. John says:

    Q. What is NYSE Alternext U.S., LLC.?

    A. New name of American Stock Exchange.

  51. Stu says:

    “Why would DM tour? There’s no album to support.”

    Home foreclosure?

  52. RPatrick says:

    Clot~
    I think that came out wrong. You have been very active and have given a lot of insight to the board.

    My comment was referring to this one agent listed in the article making 30K going “He might not be doing it right” And my dealings with NJ Gold Coast agents who thought the days of Wine and Roses would never end.

  53. Cindy says:

    #39 Stu
    “It is not the short sellers that are killing the fav19. It is the terrible decisions made by the management of the fav19 companies.”
    #41 Clotpoll “Renew the list on 8/21? Bank on it.”

    Well, that pretty much sets me straight.

    It all appears to be a ploy (to an outsider trying to understand) to forestall the inevitable. ( Is this so they can unwind slowly as Roubini put it?) A poorly run company is a poorly run company. People put their money in well-run companies. Do they think investors are idiots?

  54. Stu says:

    Dang, futures numbers were wrong!

    Naz futures only down 11 or so.

  55. Clotpoll says:

    John (47)-

    Yeah, but some of the mechanisms and bookkeeping tricks the big boys use to put on an immediate short trade- while resolving the actual delivery part, post-trade- technically amount to naked short selling.

    If real-time short selling- in significant volume- cannot be conducted, you create a vacuum beneath the share prices. More important, you impose a psychological barrier on trade in those restricted issues. The real killer comes when all the longs decide the jig is up. You’ll see the fav19 completely collapse in 1-2 trading sessions.

    This is what I think will happen to the sickest of the fav19.

  56. Clotpoll says:

    lost (50)-

    Maybe they’re depressed and just want to get out for a bit.

  57. kettle1 says:

    What real blows me away in all of this is the level of misdirection!

    with all the crap going on we hear yelling and screaming about the evil short sellers hurting the financials, the evil speculators pumping up oil, a new bottom to the recession called every day….. ad naseum.

    any mention of the real issues at hand promptly gets shouted down or cut off.

    The Ministry of Truth is running in overdrive lately

  58. Tom says:

    I think a lot of the problem with the cost of medical care is how the cost of going to medical school has gone up. In my opinion partly due to the problems with student lending.

    I wonder how true the stereo type that doctors aren’t good with money are. There was one doctor in NJ that had their house up for an IRS auction this year. Tax delinquencies for years, unpaid student loans galore.

    There’s a dentist in BC that is in foreclosure on his second mortgage, has 2 helocs, owes over 200K in student loans plus some car and credit cards. The bankruptcy statement put their asssets at around $50k and liabilities in the $1-10million category.

  59. Outofstater says:

    Wachovia is offering 4.25% on a one year CD. Limited time offer! The local branch had flyers taped to the drive-thru. They were flapping and tearing apart in the wind. Kind of scary, actually, in an “Atlas Shrugged” sort of way.

  60. Stu says:

    Did ya see the planned tuition increases in Jersey this year?

    7-9% for the most part. Better get those 529’s funded and in a hurry.

  61. NJLifer says:

    37 – RPatrick

    Hats off to plumbers because the have rough jobs, but during the downturn, all of those types of jobs are in big trouble. Most used to scoff at doing the fixer-upper jobs during the construction boom becasue there was always an entire McMansion job they had to ‘plumb’. Since they didn’t like the small stuff, when they did show up to do it, they would rake you over the coals with the cost. Pulmbers in my neighborhoos driving around in 5-Series and their wives driving Escalades. How long before they are filing for bankruptcy?

  62. lostinny says:

    53 Stu
    Please don’t give me a reason to lose respect for them. I’m already on the outs with one of them.
    But if I’d really have to come up with a reason, I’d say alimony before foreclosure. One with 1 ex wife, 1 with 2 ex wives. And the children to support. Yeah, I’d hope those were the reasons.

  63. Clotpoll says:

    Vodka (59)-

    “The Ministry of Truth is running in overdrive lately”

    And, the Ministry is about to run out of tricks. The next step of the death spiral will involve the military, and seizure of individual assets (like, er, gold?).

    Mike Morgan didn’t put up today’s post by accident.

  64. lostinny says:

    58 Clot
    Maybe. But touring is exhausting. I’d imagine they’d want to relax more,the older they get. And 2 live in the States. Why tour so far from home without an album?

  65. still_looking says:

    John.

    Time to up your meds, dear, your delusions are in high gear.

    sl

  66. still_looking says:

    Tom,

    Do you have clue as to what malpractice insurance costs.

    and equipment,
    and staff,
    and CMEs???

    Please, folks, stick to topics you have a clue about.

    sl

  67. Clotpoll says:

    Tom (60)-

    I have a lot of MDs as clients. A lot of them are not good with money. I look at it this way: they spend their whole lives grinding, working, studying to become what they are. It is a superhuman effort. How would a good MD have the time- or inclination- to become financially-astute? Many of my MD clients are fortunate to have the self-awareness to understand this and turn over their assets to managers.

    I also think this is why a lot of athletes are terrible with money.

  68. kettle1 says:

    confused, 40

    what Subaru dealer do you use?

    mrs kettles car died yesterday and am considering a subaru

  69. Clotpoll says:

    stater (61)-

    Everything I look at these days has an “Atlas Shrugged” kind of look.

    Every time I pull onto 78, I think about the first page of “Love in the Ruins”.

  70. Clotpoll says:

    (70)-

    May I suggest a donkey and cart?

  71. BC Bob says:

    “Please, folks, stick to topics you have a clue about.”

    SL [68],

    Amen.

  72. make money says:

    Clot[65],

    There has to be a run on the dollar before the gov’t gets desperate and does drastic measures.

    I really feel bad for the next president cause he’ll be dealt an imposible hand and it’s gonna be impossible to bluf when everyone knows what you are holding.

  73. still_looking says:

    70 clot,

    I agree. Most of the ones I know are truly lost. But bankruptcy? foreclosure? These are folks who have gone well beyond what’s prudent.

    Some of us do take the time to do our research and some of us have the fortune to be raised by parents who above all taught us how to be financially astute.

    sl

  74. Stu says:

    Kettle1: With oil dropping to $40/barrel, you should buy one of those used SUVs. They are so cheap right now!

  75. Clotpoll says:

    make (74)-

    That run on the dollar is coming. Wait until the feeble effort of other exporting nations to prop up the USD crashes and burns. We’ve pumped them so full of poison, they have no real leverage to do anything.

    BC, do you agree with this?

  76. lostinny says:

    Kettle
    A friend of mine has a Subaru Forester.She loves it. The MPG’s could be better but it is a small SUV.

  77. Clotpoll says:

    sl (75)-

    I think we both know you are the exception to the doctor/money thing. :)

  78. njpatient says:

    24 RPat

    “Our MD’s make 125-180K and these guys only have a car lease payment.
    3. My MD’s have sometimes remarked they are doing the wrong thing sometimes. Which is sad.”

    If they think they’re doing the wrong thing, then they’re probably correct. $125-180K isn’t a mint, by any means, but it’s certainly enough to sustain someone who otherwise finds their job satisfying.

    So it can’t just be the money – and who wants a doctor who finds the job inherently unpleasant?

    But perhaps I am being naive?

  79. njpatient says:

    20 cindy

    “The only successful R/E folks I know personally that are still active here in CA are involved in rentals. One is a builder and one an agent. But their income at this point is derived from their rental properties. Being property managers was once their side job. They are still active as a builder and an agent respectively but with so little activity that the rentals are now their mainstay. I believe they will both weather the crisis here because of that.”

    Were you around when pretorius used to browbeat grim about rental properties and positive cash flow being out-of-date concepts and that what matters these days is ROI??

    Good times.

  80. BC Bob says:

    Clot [77],

    I think it will be a race to the bottom for currencies. The only question, which is the best of the worst?

  81. njpatient says:

    29 BC

    “the fed is steering the ship”

    Which makes it what kind of ship?

  82. NJLifer says:

    83 – Patient

    Answer – A “Junk”?

  83. Tom says:

    still_looking,

    Malpractice insurance is expensive because of all the malpractice claims. Blame the lawyers for the frivolous claims and the incompetent doctors that are in it for the money and don’t really care or know what they’re doing. I’ve seen first hand a surgeon perform an unnecessary procedure that could have been avoided if he bothered to read the first sentence of the patient’s chart. Also doctors billing insurance twice in one day for a 5 minute visit. Sometimes they didn’t even bother showing up.

    It seems like a lot of doctors try to live the “doctor lifestyle” before they can really afford to. I think the cost of becoming a doctor needs to come down and the requirements to become one should be higher.

    Clot,

    I’ve known doctors that have been good with money. They’re parents taught them that from an early age and they didn’t think they would become doctors so that they would have enough money to not worry about money.

  84. kettle1 says:

    BC 82

    i like the AUS$. they have massive natural resource deposits to back it up when the shtf. Their debt level also seems to be reasonable.

    i came up with this by asking the 8-ball

  85. njpatient says:

    42 Stu

    ” Just make sure you have enough for a decent lightly used apple cart.”

    I just bought me a great big brand new wheelbarrow. Perry Ellis brand. It has a compartment for storing photos of the Little Patients.

  86. Cindy says:

    Fresno Bee 8/7 – Sanford Nax

    “Sales of existing homes climbed in Fresno and Clovis in July for the sixth consecutive month, a sign that dropping prices and the abundance of foreclosures are luring bargain hunters off the sidelines.”

    “But analysts were quick to note the market is still fragile because more than half of the sales were bank-owned properties and that sales typically increase in spring and summer.”

    “It doesn’t appear likely that the foreclosure crisis will abate soon. Some predictions call for another wave of defaults in 2009 as more adjustable-rate mortgages and interest-only loans begin to recast.”

    “They will remain at relatively high levels through 2010 and gradually decline through 2012,” said Paul Leonard, California office director of the Center for Responsible Lending, who appeared before the Assembly legislators last week in Sacramento.”

    “Similar sales patterns are being seen in the northern San Joaquin Valley, which is ground zero for the foreclosure crisis. Sales are stronger where prices fell the most, said Andrew LePage, an analyst for DataQuick, which tracks activity. First-time home buyers and investors are bargain hunting, he said.”

    “LePage said increasing sales is a positive trend, but that a strong recovery won’t occur until the foreclosures begin to fade, and the inventory of unsold homes shrinks.”

    Sales and foreclosures

    Jan. sales: 380 foreclosures: 115
    Feb. sales: 352 foreclosures: 132
    March sales: 410 foreclosures: 130
    April sales: 565 foreclosures: 212
    May sales: 596 foreclosures: 249
    June sales: 631 foreclosures: 309

    They say sales also climbed in July but did not post the numbers in the paper.

  87. Will V. says:

    NAR says: Pending home sales index rises 5.3% in June

    I guess it’s all over, home sales will rebound from now… sarcasm off

  88. grim says:

    Which makes it what kind of ship?

    Polish Submarine

  89. Rich In NNJ says:

    SL (68),

    Please, folks, stick to topics you have a clue about.

    That would be nice, then there would be half as many posts to skim through.

  90. Tom says:

    Their not They’re :(

  91. njpatient says:

    44 john/48 clot

    Yes.

  92. njpatient says:

    “Realtors� group says pending home sales rebounded, rising 5.3% in June, but still down 12.3% from last year. More soon.”

    Hmmmm

    Audit, anyone?

    Can’t wait to see prices.

  93. Cindy says:

    (81)njpatient

    I must not have been around. I only know what I see with my own eyes, really. And my friends are successful with their strategy.
    Their rentals are their retirement accounts.

  94. kettle1 says:

    was curious…. here are the top 25 debtors ( nations)

    Rank

    Country

    Public debt
    (% of GDP)

    Date of Information
    1
    Zimbabwe 211.90 2007 est.
    2
    Japan 195.50 2007 est.
    3
    Lebanon 186.60 2007 est.
    4
    Seychelles 144.30 2007 est.
    5
    Jamaica 127.20 2007 est.
    6
    Egypt 105.80 2007 est.
    7
    Italy 104.00 2007 est.
    8
    Singapore 101.20 2007 est.
    9
    Sudan 98.90 2007 est.
    10
    Greece 89.70 2007 est.
    11
    Belgium 84.90 2007 est.
    12
    Sri Lanka 83.90 2007 est.
    13
    Bhutan 81.40 2004
    14
    Cote d’Ivoire 81.10 2007 est.
    15
    Israel 80.60 2007 est.
    16
    Norway 75.10 2007 est.
    17
    Jordan 72.70 2007 est.
    18
    Morocco 72.40 2007 est.
    19
    Canada 68.50 2007 est.
    20
    Hungary 67.00 2007 est.
    21
    Uruguay 67.00 2007
    22
    France 64.00 2007 est.
    23
    Portugal 63.60 2007 est.
    24
    Germany 63.20 2007 est.
    25
    Nicaragua 63.00 2007 est.
    26
    United States 60.80 2007 est.

  95. njpatient says:

    60 Tom

    “I think a lot of the problem with the cost of medical care is how the cost of going to medical school has gone up. In my opinion partly due to the problems with student lending.”

    If that’s the case, we should see corresponding increases in the cost of hiring anyone with a JD, PhD or MBA, no?

  96. Nom Deplume says:

    [23] still

    Ha. We actually have a lot of fun with Ratatouille. We took Little Nom to France last year so we try to pick out places where we went (even if they were not real, just so there is some participation). I do the same thing with Eloise and Madeline, though she has grown bored of Madeline.

  97. Clotpoll says:

    vodka (86)-

    Better you ask an 8-ball than do what Klink & Bergabe do: smoke an 8-ball.

  98. Stu says:

    “Which makes it what kind of ship?”

    A destroyer (of lives)?

  99. njpatient says:

    98 nom

    ours love ratatouille as well. Re Eloise, it broke my heart when the Plaza went co-op.

  100. Stu says:

    Forget the kids…I loved Ratatouille. Thought it was the best movie released in 2007.

  101. Nom Deplume says:

    [101] Patient,

    A point lost on Little Nom. But she was amused to see the Plaza a few weeks ago, to learn it really exists.

  102. kettle1 says:

    On oil:

    So we have a good guess now that best case scenario is oil hits the wall by about 2020. If exports stop in 2030, they will be miniscule in the 5- 10 years before that and will quickly become irrelevant.

    Aug. 7 (Bloomberg) — Norway’s oil production peaked in 2001 and exports are likely to end by 2030, Norwegian business Web site E24 reported, citing a study by Professor Kjell Aleklett at Uppsala University in Sweden.

  103. njpatient says:

    65 Clot/Kettle

    Hopefully there’s a frogmarch soon, when the Ministry of Truth becomes the Ministry of Funny Walks.

  104. still_looking says:

    clot, BCbob– thank you!

    [sarcasm on alert]

    njpatient — #98 – Oh please… you just stop it with all that logic now… you might confuse a few of the folks here…

    [/off sarcasm.]

    sl

  105. Rich In NNJ says:

    From MarketWatch

    Pending home sales index rises 5.3% in June

    In a sign that the U.S. housing market may strengthen in coming months, an index of sales contracts on previously owned U.S. homes rose 5.3% in June from the prior month, the National Association of Realtors reported Thursday. The index, which is considered a leading indicator of existing home sales, was down 12.3% from the June 2007 level. Pending home sales in June rose in all regions, with a gain of 9.3% in the South, 4.6% in the West, 3.4% in the Northeast and 1.3% in the Midwest. The May pending home sales index was revised to a decline of 4.9% from the prior estimate of a 4.7% drop.

    In a sign that this reporter knows nothing about the seasonality of real esatate…

    June NJMLS Sold & Under Contract* Data for Bergen County

    Year Sold U/C*
    1991 840 757
    1992 848 870
    1993 828 978
    1994 904 925
    1995 821 898
    1996 827 973
    1997 886 919
    1998 1090 1013
    1999 1112 971
    2000 1025 917
    2001 929 969
    2002 933 890
    2003 929 1124
    2004 1181 1132
    2005 1187 1185
    2006 933 919
    2007 904 885
    2008 700 712

    Under Contract = Pending Sales

  106. tbw says:

    Even if you have one child, you need an SUV because of the safety of all wheel drive and you certainly need all the cargo space to haul your child’s toys, large Bugaboo stroller, and assorted food and beverages. An SUV is the only way a young parent can live their busy busy hectic lifestyle and keep their child constantly entertained. Busy Busy Busy…

  107. Clotpoll says:

    patient (105)-

    Mozilo had better look out. I think he’s the easy target/conduit for a lot of sheeple-hate.

  108. njpatient says:

    84 Lifer

    Good work. I was thinking a Ship of Fools, but I like yours better.

  109. Nom Deplume says:

    [37] Patrick

    So true. Were I to do it over, I would go into trades, not law.

    Of course, being a tax lawyer has helped me see how lucrative it is. And since I cannot have an outside business interest as a lawyer, I have been considering getting into the trades.

  110. njpatient says:

    85 Tom

    “Malpractice insurance is expensive because of all the malpractice claims. Blame the lawyers for the frivolous claims”

    Tom, the statistics simply don’t bear this out. During the past ten years when the cost of malpractice insurance was skyrocketing, the cost of claims simply wasn’t. You have to look elsewhere for your answer.

  111. kettle1 says:

    more oil then i will stop:

    Chinese demand for diesel and gasoline during August, the month of the Olympics, is down by nearly 40 percent which may have more to do with the recent price drops than the decline in US gasoline consumption which seems to have stabilized at around 2.3 percent.

    will be interesting to see what happens to prices after the olympics!

  112. still_looking says:

    Nom, Stu,

    I’m a prisoner of “Bug’s Life” “Ratatouille” “Jungle Book” “Finding Nemo”

    Pixar is just da bomb

    Did you look at the outtakes of Bug’s life? I split a side watching those….

    Worst thing is when one of the songs from the movie becomes stuck in your head…

    sl

  113. Clotpoll says:

    Ship to Nowhere

  114. njrebear says:

    SEC to announce major enforcement action at 11:15 a.m. ET

  115. njpatient says:

    95 cindy

    I take the positive cash flow side of the argument. In other words, I approve of your friends.

  116. Sybarite101 X says:

    ket

    Also, remember that the chinese government restricted driving in an attempt to rein in the abysmal pollution in china. Offhand I don’t remember the magnitude of the restriction, but this may also be playing a part in the suppressed demand.

  117. Rich In NNJ says:

    RE: 107

    Here is this past May’s NJMLS data for Bergen County
    Year Sold U/C
    2008 539 772

    July’s NJMLS Data for Bergen County
    Year Sold U/C
    1991 710 924
    1992 679 792
    1993 598 961
    1994 728 935
    1995 613 909
    1996 687 1042
    1997 765 942
    1998 772 1040
    1999 743 999
    2000 786 977
    2001 736 1075
    2002 847 1022
    2003 713 1030
    2004 807 1072
    2005 873 1149
    2006 808 1050
    2007 824 964
    2008 539 772

  118. njpatient says:

    lots of great ship suggestions! We have a veritable Armada!

  119. Tom says:

    “If that’s the case, we should see corresponding increases in the cost of hiring anyone with a JD, PhD or MBA, no?”

    Like I said, only part of the problem.

    I just think in general doctors should make about half the money they make but in turn should come out of school with half or less of the debt they have and the cost of being a doctor should be reduced. It should also be more difficult so less people slide or cheat through.

    I’m not saying doctor’s should be making a good living, I think they should. It’s the people that are making money off the doctors that shouldn’t be that’s a problem. Not talking about doctors, nurses and other staff.

    By the way, in the 90’s malpractice premiums dropped. Part of this was due to doctors taking on less patients and being thorough. New technology also helped.

  120. Stu says:

    Can we add a cable layer to the armada?

    bud dum bump…chssssshshshsh.

  121. njpatient says:

    109 clot

    Lovely weather we’re having today.

  122. Nom Deplume says:

    [114] Still, et al.

    That settles it. If the Brigadoon GTG is family friendly, then the TV in the play room will be set to a Pixar Marathon.

    Of course, something tells me that a good number of parents might be there too!!!

  123. njpatient says:

    37 rpat
    111 nom

    same here
    It will be helpful on the compound, in any event.

  124. PGC says:

    #113 Kettle

    I heard that the Chinese had stockpiled for the games. They have boat loads of backup generators in case of power outages. They are also idling a lot of power stations to cut back on the pollution.

  125. njpatient says:

    114 still

    “Did you look at the outtakes of Bug’s life? I split a side watching those….”

    They’re a riot. Fortunately I love those flicks. The song that sticks in my head most is one that makes me weepy – “When Somebody Loves You” from Toy Story II. But then, my mother taught me when I was little that the toys are alive when I’m not looking, and she also taught me that they get sad if you don’t love them.

    I’ve been a wreck ever since.

  126. #83 – Which makes it what kind of ship?
    A failboat ?

  127. lostinny says:

    128 Toshiro
    I think you win.

  128. painhrtz says:

    I just returned from China a few weeks ago, everyone that does not have a car wants one, and everyone that does, drives it into the ground. Yes the driving restrictions are having an effect on their consumption, but they only consist of the areas around Beijing. China is a pretty big country, Shanghai has had driving restrictions for years now, and Guangzhou is an industrial area that has more run of the mill workers than entrepenuers. The real driver has been the Chinese goverment reducing subsidies on oil and oil products. The average citizen with a car has had to change their driving habits due to the increase in the price of petrol. It is still a very poor country and the average citizen does not make enough to support a car lifestyle, at least not yet.

  129. Nom Deplume says:

    [125] NJP

    I thought you couldn’t join the compound??? Mrs. Patient won’t let you play in the woods.

    And yes, if you recall, I wanted a variety of skills for the compound, so recruiting trades and doctors were high on my list.

  130. Rich In NNJ says:

    RE: 119 ERROR!

    That was all of May’s data, not July’s.

    Here is July’s data
    Year Sold U/C
    1991 850 692
    1992 905 728
    1993 898 856
    1994 973 788
    1995 450 598
    1996 890 741
    1997 1014 826
    1998 1101 878
    1999 1093 850
    2000 986 842
    2001 1059 855
    2002 1069 893
    2003 1130 1138
    2004 1282 967
    2005 1082 944
    2006 904 750
    2007 899 842
    2008 675 693

    Sorry for the confusion

  131. njpatient says:

    121 Tom

    “By the way, in the 90’s malpractice premiums dropped. Part of this was due to doctors taking on less patients and being thorough.”

    Insurance companies are financial institutions. What do they do with the premiums the receive? They invest them. What do they do when their investments fall through the floor? They jack up their premiums.

    There’s a reason why insurance rates fell during the ’90s and rose thereafter. Insurance companies made a mint on the market in the ’90s, and lost it with everyone else thereafter.

    Malpractice insurance premiums react to a number of factors, or course, but have the greatest correlation (inverse) to the equity market.

  132. njpatient says:

    129 lost

    Yeah – tosh wins.

  133. bairen says:

    #83

    The SS Minnow

    “If not for the courage of the fearless crew the Minnow would be lost.”

  134. kettle1 says:

    Syb et al:

    I am suggesting that since china has drastically restricted car use and factory activity that one the restrictions are lifted after the olympics we will see the price of oil jump back up.
    China’s demand for gas and diesel has dropped by 40% because of the olympic restrictions.

    So i am willing to bet (1$ perhaps) that by September first we will see upwards movement in oil prices as chinese demand comes back online.

    40% is a huge factor and i had no idea the reduced usage was that significant until today.

  135. NJLifer says:

    114 Still

    “Did you look at the outtakes of Bug’s life?”

    There is one at the end of the movie ‘Cars’ that is pretty funny too.

  136. Clotpoll says:

    patient (127)-

    Better that, than teaching you Marlboros and Dewars are the basics of a healthy diet:

    “my mother taught me when I was little that the toys are alive when I’m not looking, and she also taught me that they get sad if you don’t love them.”

  137. kettle1 says:

    Nom,

    you should be recruiting SL then for the compund! is this place going to end up being the offical NJREReport retreat?

  138. Frank says:

    “Pending home sales index rises 5.3% in June”

    Where’s the gloom and doom? Where’s the recession?
    Long live housing boom!!!!!!!!

  139. Tom says:

    npatient,

    “You have to look elsewhere for your answer.”

    Want to steer me in the right direction?

    Right now I’d say that insurance premiums would rise to cover the losses or lack of performance from the investment of reserves.

    During the recent boom I would have thought that premiums might have fallen, along with underwriting standards, as insurers tried to pull in more cash for investments. But I think that’s more of what happened in the mid to late 90’s as the tech stocks drove the markets higher. Maybe the past decade they were just focusing more on their combined ratio rather than investments to makeup?

  140. Tom says:

    dammit patient, don’t answer my questions before I ask them :)

  141. RayC says:

    I am being nosy about this house, it is WELL out of my price range, but can anyone tell me the status of 734 Woodland, Westfield? It is new construction and been on for over a year. I think it may have finally sold. Thanks in advance.

  142. BC Bob says:

    “Pending home sales index rises 5.3% in June”

    Fran[140],

    Once a dolt, always a dolt.

    How about yoy? In addition to this, what % will actually close?

  143. Loderunner12 says:

    I’ve been a lurker on this board, but I come back to this more than any other. I have a house (built in the 50s) and the time has now come to take out the vinyl asbestos tiles in the basement as it is showing its age (a couple have already begun to degrade, so I keep them moist).

    Removal of the tiles scares me shtlss and don’t want the residual risk from having some incompetent person do it (me included and, according to my wife, especially me)

    Should I go look for a specific company or will a general contractor do? Is anyone willing to recommend anyone in the NNJ area?

    thanks; you can email me at loderunner12@yahoo.com

  144. still_looking says:

    138 lifer, haven’t seen it yet… but I’m sure I will…. :)

    140 ket, Sign me on! And Mr.SL, a master carpenter with cabinet making training, too!

    sl

  145. Sybarite101 X says:

    RayC:

    OLP: $1,329,000
    LP: $1,225,000
    SP: $1,190,000

    Closed: 8/01/2008

  146. still_looking says:

    145 BCBob

    The soft breeze of your common sense is wafting over the hair of the vapid.

    “Once a dolt, always a dolt.” So true.

    sl

  147. I don’t think anyone else has posted this link yet.

    http://lolfed.com/

    Some funny stuff.

  148. kettle1 says:

    Tosh,

    that like was priceless.

    my personal fav
    http://lolfed.com/wp-content/bernankemagician-300×197.jpg

  149. BC Bob says:

    “Mortgages issued in the first half of 2007 are going bad at a pace that far outstrips the 2006 vintage, suggesting that the blow to the financial system from U.S. housing woes will be deeper than many people earlier estimated.”

    “An analysis prepared for The Wall Street Journal by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. shows that 0.91% of prime mortgages from 2007 were seriously delinquent after 12 months, meaning they were in foreclosure or at least 90 days past due. The equivalent figure after 12 months was just 0.33% for 2006 prime mortgages.”

    http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/08/mortgage-delinq.html

  150. njpatient says:

    136 kettle

    Someone (dunno who) was interviewed on Bloomberg this morning was saying that “If everyone in China drove a two-stroke moped, it would use more oil than has been used in any year in history; anyone who thinks oil is being driven up by speculators can’t do basic math” and “the american car manufactures are run by idiots” or words to those effects. Was a great interview.

  151. RayC says:

    # Sybarite101 X Says:
    August 7th, 2008 at 10:50 am

    RayC:

    OLP: $1,329,000
    LP: $1,225,000
    SP: $1,190,000

    Closed: 8/01/2008

    Thanks for the info. I know it was first priced over 1.4 million. The house was bought in 12/05 for $585, they built a 5BD 5BTh McMansion on it and sold it 2 and a half years later. I know there is still profit there, but not what it was at all 2-3 years ago. Yes, in Brigadoon.

  152. Clotpoll says:

    Now begins the barf-up of ARS. Wonder how the stuff the brokers have to take back will be valued?

    Good times.

  153. BC Bob says:

    “Wonder how the stuff the brokers have to take back will be valued?”

    Clot [154],

    Marked to the model, of course. In addition to that, placed on some off balance sheet or brought to the window.

  154. Nom Deplume says:

    [139] Kettle,

    Yes, if I find the minimum number of investors, so as to keep the cost down for everyone, and preserve certain tax attributes.

    Hardest parts are finding a core group that is willing to tie up a large chunk of cash indefinitely for minimal gain, and finding the right property that serves the necessary purposes of current vacation use, farm/timber income and access, and defensible sanctuary in case of TEOTWAWKI or WTSHTF. I suppose I will have to develop a business plan in all my free time.

  155. Clotpoll says:

    BC (155)-

    Guess C can toss their 7-to-20 bil of ARS onto their 1 trill off-balance-sheet garbage pile.

  156. Nom Deplume says:

    [146] SL and Ket,

    Well, we have our r.e. professionals, carpenters, and tax lawyers, and just need automotive, electrical, plumbing, and medical, and we have our core group.

    Problem is I envision a minimum of 12 participants and a 40 to 50K investment. Not everyone has that in the entertainment budget.

  157. Frank says:

    BC Bob,
    You need to get out of your little NJ hole and see the sun, things are not all dark as you perceive them to be.

  158. nytonj says:

    Have a general RE attorney question. I want to sell my co-op in NY and buy home in NJ(bergen). Is it generally possible to get one attorney in NJ that can do both transactions? Or do really have to go with two attorneys (NY and NJ)? I need to sell and use proceeds to buy so it would need to be done within days apart.

    Thanks,

  159. Clotpoll says:

    (159)-

    Dunno, Frank. BC’s got you sized up pretty good.

  160. Clotpoll says:

    (160)-

    Try to find an attorney that’s admitted to both NY and NJ bar.

    If you can’t, no big. It is not that hard, even with two attorneys.

  161. Mikeinwaiting says:

    On the trades conversation friend who is a plumber no work for a month before busy all the time. Has one house waiting on builder to be ready for him. Guys been at it a long time over 20 yrs. No home owner stuff either Oh I forgot what home owners.

  162. Jamey says:

    8:

    http://www.roadbikereview.com/

    Caveat emptor, and all that.

    For a commuter/around-town bike, look at Craigslist or Freecycle.

    What’s your budget?

  163. sean says:

    grim #166 in moderation

  164. BC Bob says:

    “BC Bob,
    You need to get out of your little NJ hole and see the sun, things are not all dark as you perceive them to be.”

    Frank [159],

    This is what I see; rising foreclosures, collapsing auto sales, a dead housing market, weak employment, tightening credit conditions, credit card companies rolling over, IB’s still in the discovery stage and a derivatives pile that is akin to the night of the living dead.

    Where are you looking?

  165. sean says:

    Back in June the English Police broke open about 7,000 safe deposit boxes in the name of crime fighting, and confiscated everything. If you want your stuff back you have to make a claim by providing proof of ownership, google operation Rize.

  166. Rich In NNJ says:

    Bob (167),

    You’re wasting your time. Frank thinks inflation puts money IN his pocket.

  167. NJl$rd says:

    njp, I think tort reform is partially based on this, no? To me, when you have tort lawyers promoting greed ($$$ just call me 800-xxx if you feel wrongly treated stuff) in every corner of the media that’s wrong sign to me.

    A lawyer’s value lay in the need to balance the justice in a society. Don’t get me wrong, we need lawyers but too many lawyers are over-exploit the system. Eventually there is a price to pay. The price is not always justified.

    #112 njpatient Says:
    August 7th, 2008 at 10:19 am

    85 Tom

    “Malpractice insurance is expensive because of all the malpractice claims. Blame the lawyers for the frivolous claims”

    Tom, the statistics simply don’t bear this out. During the past ten years when the cost of malpractice insurance was skyrocketing, the cost of claims simply wasn’t. You have to look elsewhere for your answer.

  168. Vik says:

    8:

    Try the following for used bikes. They have two retail outlets (Brooklyn & Manhattan(.

    http://www.recycleabicycle.org/

  169. BC Bob says:

    Rich [168],

    Yeah, I’m the bigger fool for responding.

  170. Victorian says:

    Please don’t scare Frank away. We need people to take the other side of the trade.

  171. Tom says:

    Ok this is a crazy concept that just popped into my head.

    What if medical schools worked on commission? Instead of financing student’s education based on future earnings, just take it off as a percentage of their income. The rate declines as the years go by.

    This cuts out lenders and saves money. It is in their best interest to cut out poor students early on, rather than collect their tuition. It gives medical schools more incentive to produce good doctors.

    For insurance, have the doctor-owned, non-profit insurers been doing well?

  172. NJl$rd says:

    How about wonderboard over the existing floor then lay the new ceramic tiles on wonderboard.

    You don’t need to get rid of the old tile just bury it. That’s way I usually did it cheap.

    #145 Loderunner12 Says:
    August 7th, 2008 at 10:44 am

    I’ve been a lurker on this board, but I come back to this more than any other. I have a house (built in the 50s) and the time has now come to take out the vinyl asbestos tiles in the basement as it is showing its age (a couple have already begun to degrade, so I keep them moist).

    Removal of the tiles scares me shtlss and don’t want the residual risk from having some incompetent person do it (me included and, according to my wife, especially me)

    Should I go look for a specific company or will a general contractor do? Is anyone willing to recommend anyone in the NNJ area?

    thanks; you can email me at loderunner12@yahoo.com

  173. Rich In NNJ says:

    We need people to take the other side of the trade.

    That ended when Pretorius quit.

    Richard, RE101, Bi and Frank are… a joke.

  174. Tom says:

    By poor I mean poor performing.

  175. NJGator says:

    98 Nom – That’s great about the trip to France. Stu’s sister married a frenchman and they are raising our niece and nephew to be bilingual. It was a sad day for me when our nephew was 3 and I realized that he had already surpassed my high school level French!

    I do know how to make friends in France. My junior high school French teacher taught me how. Whenever I travel to France and butcher the language, but need some help, all I have to say is “Excusez-moi, mais je sais que je parle francais comme une vache espagnole!”. It works every time. No one has ever been rude to me in France : )

  176. Rich In NNJ says:

    A response to the latest pending sales data within a MarketWatch article:

    Sales of foreclosed homes may be driving activity, wrote Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics.

    “We doubt sales of non-foreclosed homes are rising, given the recent rise in mortgage rates and continued price declines,” Shepherdson wrote.

  177. NJl$rd says:

    Yes we need medical system reform. Basically we need quality care at reasonable price. The existing system proved to be not effective for now (may be decades ago). A good system should take into consideration of a) attract enough talents (med students), b) promote productivity (economic of scale), c) encourage of free market competition (drive down price)

    #173 Tom Says:
    August 7th, 2008 at 11:43 am

    Ok this is a crazy concept that just popped into my head.

    What if medical schools worked on commission? Instead of financing student’s education based on future earnings, just take it off as a percentage of their income. The rate declines as the years go by.

    This cuts out lenders and saves money. It is in their best interest to cut out poor students early on, rather than collect their tuition. It gives medical schools more incentive to produce good doctors.

    For insurance, have the doctor-owned, non-profit insurers been doing well?

  178. BC Bob says:

    Rich [180],

    Good point. What % of the sales # were attributed to foreclosures or short sales?

  179. Victorian says:

    182- Bob

    33%

  180. Rich In NNJ says:

    Interesting read and chart from CNBC (and HousingDoom.com) when Pending Home Sales were released last month:

    NAR’s Pending Home Sales: Something’s Amiss

  181. NJl$rd says:

    How about put those stuff under the mattress or bury them under the backyard ground?

    #169 sean Says:
    August 7th, 2008 at 11:30 am

    Back in June the English Police broke open about 7,000 safe deposit boxes in the name of crime fighting, and confiscated everything. If you want your stuff back you have to make a claim by providing proof of ownership, google operation Rize.

  182. HEHEHE says:

    “Holding open houses for rentals

    Brokers borrow a strategy from the sales side as market grows softer”

    http://ny.therealdeal.com/articles/holding-open-houses-for-rentals

  183. HEHEHE says:

    Where’s Pretard?

    Manhattan office rents decline for first time since ’05

    http://ny.therealdeal.com/articles/manhattan-office-asking-rents-decline-for-first-time-since-05

  184. rhymingrealtor says:

    Is there a way to patent a word? I have come up with one today. It came to me this morning after a showing last night.

    The meaning is: person or persons trying to sell their home in this market for a crack smoking price, this person or persons would also happen to be a realtor who should be totally aware of the absurdity of their asking price.

    The word is : UnRealtoristic.

    KL

  185. HEHEHE says:

    This deals with commercial real estate but certainly applies to residential:

    In Contract? Big Whoop: Negotiations Linger as Sellers Play Nervous Field

    http://www.observer.com/2008/real-estate/contract-big-whoop-negotiations-linger-sellers-play-nervous-field

  186. Cindy says:

    (180) Rich (182) BC

    Per my post @89 – In my area…

    Jan. sales one third foreclosures
    June (probably July too) one half foreclosures

  187. njpatient says:

    171 NJLord

    “njp, I think tort reform is partially based on this, no? ”

    No. The question was whether rising tort claim costs caused rising malpractice insurance costs. They didn’t. As I already said, during periods when malpractice insurance premiums were going through the roof, tort claim costs were simply not. So you have to find some other explanation.

  188. HEHEHE says:

    Re 187,

    You can trademark the word. I believe Phil Jackson trademarked “Threepeat”. I think Marv Levy trademarked “Fourpeat Defeat”.

  189. njpatient says:

    “You don’t need to get rid of the old tile just bury it. That’s way I usually did it cheap. ”

    Lovely – do that a couple of times and all of a sudden you’ve got 7 foot ceilings and need a set of stairs to get into the room.

  190. make money says:

    OK so where is Citi gonna get $20 Billion and why aren’t shereholders running for the exits?

  191. njpatient says:

    179 NJGator

    “Stu’s sister married a frenchman and they are raising our niece and nephew to be bilingual.”

    Not that there’s anything wrong with that!!

  192. Stu says:

    #145 Loderunner12:

    Yup, bestest and cheapest way to deal with Asbestos is to cover it up (without disturbing it). Just recently soffeted in all of the radiator piping in my basement. Cost for materials to finish the basement was less than numbers quoted by asbestos removal companies. This includes click flooring and drop ceiling.

    Laying board over old tile should work like a charm. Might have to raise trim, but that is no big deal.

    Let us know what you decide.

  193. NJl$rd says:

    Рад тебя видеть tovarish.

    :) Just kidding no russian for me.

    #44 John Says:
    August 7th, 2008 at 9:20 am

    Doctors don’t deserve a nickle more pay. In the old days of commie russia where everyone got paid the same, you could be a phone operator or a MD and get paid the same. Guess what the people who loved medicine went to medical school and became doctors even though they made the same.

  194. njpatient says:

    187 KL

    Yes.

    John Calipari copyrighted, or was it trademarked, the word “threepeat”, I believe.

  195. NJGator says:

    194 NJP – Nothing wrong with that at all. I just always facied myself as “Cool Auntie Lisa” who could speak French too. When a 3 year old is correcting your pronunication when you’re reading him a board book, it’s a pretty harsh return to reality : )

    One day I will get Stu to go back to France with me (he’s never been!). I miss it so…

  196. njpatient says:

    hehehe beat me to it. Didn’t realize it was Phil.

  197. BC Bob says:

    Rich/Cindy/Victorian,

    So the gap between home sales and pending is larger than a sumo wrestler’s #ss and the % of short sales/foreclosures are a significant piece of the puzzle.

    Frank,

    It was sunny in JC earlier, starting to get cloudy now.

  198. BC Bob says:

    “John Calipari copyrighted, or was it trademarked, the word “threepeat”, I believe.”

    njp,

    Pat Riley.

  199. NJl$rd says:

    njp, where is the source of your stat. Does it count in the number of cases increase as part of the calculation? Even my babysitter know she could sue the hospital these days.

    #191 njpatient Says:
    August 7th, 2008 at 11:59 am

    171 NJLord

    “njp, I think tort reform is partially based on this, no? ”

    No. The question was whether rising tort claim costs caused rising malpractice insurance costs. They didn’t. As I already said, during periods when malpractice insurance premiums were going through the roof, tort claim costs were simply not. So you have to find some other explanation.

  200. chicagofinance says:

    Frank Says:
    August 7th, 2008 at 9:07 am
    My friend, a RE agent in Milltown, NJ is having her best year ever, this guy is a looser. Weeeeeeeeeee

    Furts: ….only responding because you hit me right in the pet peeve…..you seem to suffer from a chronically undulating case of chowderheaditization……

  201. njpatient says:

    yeah – Pat the Rat.

  202. HEHEHE says:

    Well one of them supposedly did. Calipari should concentrate on teaching his kids to make free throws.

  203. HEHEHE says:

    Actually it is apparently Pat Riley as the owner is Riles & Company though I don’t think any of his teams three-peated.

    http://tess2.uspto.gov/bin/showfield?f=doc&state=btfqgp.2.8

  204. BC Bob says:

    “Calipari should concentrate on teaching his kids to make free throws.”

    he,

    I think Rock Chalk Jayhawk, if he’s out there, would disagree.

  205. Rich In NNJ says:

    182, 183, 189 & 200,

    “up to 40% of sales are foreclosures”

    AUDIO: (at around the 1:00 mark)

    CNBC: Pending Home Sales

  206. Nom Deplume says:

    [179] Gator,

    Too funny. I used a similar line: “Je connais, je parle francais comme une vache espagnole. Desolee.” They loved it.

    I also told them “Je voyage avec mon belle-mere” and earned their sympathy.

  207. njpatient says:

    NJlord

    Here’s one study (Harvard, jointly with Brigham and Women’s Hospital, so tough to say it’s rigged):

    http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/press-releases/2006-releases/press05102006.html

    Also, read “The Medical Malpractice Myth” by Tom Baker, which posits that:

    – There’s a lot more genuine medical malpractice than you think. A long string of studies has shown that about 1 out of 100 hospitalized patients are victims of negligent malpractice. These studies were supervised by doctors and used a very strict definition of “negligent.”

    – Most victims never sue. Less than 5% of patients who are victims of negligence file a claim.

    – Patients who bring weak claims usually do so only because hospitals refuse to disclose information about their quality of care unless they are taken to court. Patients who learn that their care was reasonable usually drop their claims.

    – What’s more, contrary to myth, insurance companies very seldom pay off weak claims even if patients continue to pursue them.

    – Rising malpractice awards are not responsible for skyrocketing insurance premiums. The insurance cycle is.

  208. njpatient says:

    NJLord

    http://www.citizen.org/documents/NPDB%20Report_Final.pdf

    See page 3. The data are from the National Practitioner Data Base. The cost of malpractice claims fell on a real dollar, per capita basis.

  209. BC Bob says:

    Rich [208],

    I guess if one labels this sunny, they must be referring to the eye of the hurricane?

  210. njpatient says:

    “Even my babysitter know she could sue the hospital these days.”

    Anyone can sue anyone else for anything. Whether you’ll win, as opposed to being fined by the court for bringing a frivolous claim is another question.

    If you don’t trust juries with the power to require a defendant give up some money, you must be absolutely sickened at the idea that juries have the power to require a defendant to give up liberty and/or life.

    Quick question: if you are the defendant in a civil case, do you want the case decided by a judge or jury?

  211. njpatient says:

    “up to 40% of sales are foreclosures”

    b-b-b-b-but foreclosures don’t count!!!

  212. Rich In NNJ says:

    My friend, a RE agent in Milltown, NJ is having her best year ever, this guy is a looser. Weeeeeeeeeee

    My friend says your friend is a liar.

  213. Nom Deplume says:

    [213]

    As judges are wont to say, “let 12 idiots decide.”

    As Nom says “you never want your case decided by 12 people who aren’t smart enough to get out of jury duty.”

  214. Rich In NNJ says:

    Bob (212),

    That would explain the “Weeeeeeee”.

  215. chicagofinance says:

    lostinny Says:
    August 7th, 2008 at 9:23 am
    5 ChiFi
    Why would DM tour? There’s no album to support.

    lost: The new album’s primary recording sessions are 2/3 completed. The rumored release date is slated for Spring 2009. I am guessing a single may be released in January-March.

  216. kettle1 says:

    NJP 213

    depends on the specifics of the case!

    Regarding “jury of peers”:

    that can be a tricky term. I had an engineering professor who did consulting and was involved in a number of lawsuits as an expert witness.
    he always bemoaned the fact that whether he was testifying for the defendant or plaintiff the jury usually ignored everything he said as it was technical material not a simple story.

    This would seem to raise the issue; if the average joe cannot understand the issues involved in the case how can they be a jury of your peers?

  217. make money says:

    Homeowners are either optimistic bulls or just plain fools

    Homeowners aren’t going to let the worst national housing downturn in a generation interfere with their property value expectations.

    A survey earlier this week found that asking prices for Dallas-area homes had risen more than 2 percent in the last three months.

    Now, a national survey finds that 40 percent of U.S. homeowners think their house is worth more than it was a year ago. And 22 percent more believe their home price is unchanged, according to the poll by online real estate site Zillow.

    http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/bus/stories/DN-homeowners_07bus.ART.State.Edition1.4d9d523.html

  218. kettle1 says:

    Nom

    <i.As judges are wont to say, “let 12 idiots decide.”

    As Nom says “you never want your case decided by 12 people who aren’t smart enough to get out of jury duty.”

    is this not one sign that the foundations of this country are seriously out of whack? Our justice system was one of the core foundations and now it is a political gordian knot.

  219. chicagofinance says:

    This video is supposedly a tribute to ETS. I think Coldplay is horribly overrated, so I really don’t give a rip, but here…..Directed by Corbijn….
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=McrCQQHpAOA

  220. lostinny says:

    218
    ChiFi
    Did some digging. Looks like you’re right. THanks! I’ll expect them here some time around the end of June or early Fall which seems to be the usual for them.

  221. Cindy says:

    (208) Thanks Rich

    I have no idea if we are even putting a dent in the inventory. For every foreclosure sold – how many come on line?

    Is that what you call a moving target?

  222. kettle1 says:

    Nom, NJP

    i hear the mention of jury annulment is quite popular with the judiciary :)

  223. lostinny says:

    222 CHifi
    Saw it the other day. I like the idea but no one wears a cape and crown like Dave.

  224. kettle1 says:

    make 220

    …fools

  225. njpatient says:

    216 Nom

    Juries are less likely to award damages to a plaintiff than judges are, as it turns out.

  226. njpatient says:

    ket
    “i hear the mention of jury annulment is quite popular with the judiciary :)”

    giuliani likes the idea as well!

  227. John says:

    Funny thing about doctors, what’s with all these qualifications to get into medical school. I would have become a doctor if it did not involve me joining ton of stupid clubs in hs and working in ludicrius good sounding non paying jobs and studying all night for four years to get into a good college so I can repeat again for four years. The average male mind is just a mushy grey piece of matter that spends 23.5 hours a day thinking about girls, booze, drugs, video games, cars and partying and that leaves less than 30 minutes a day for inteligent thoughts. We should really just let any man over 25 into medical school no questions asked. Heck Barracks wife can’t even make him pick up socks and you want us to study for 12 years day and night just to say turn left and cough?

  228. kettle1 says:

    NJP

    how does giuliani play into jury annulment?

  229. John says:

    lawsuits are funny, years ago was a passenger in an auto accident and of course you have to sue. So anyhow had a really good prep for my EBTs and insurance doc exam. After I aced my EBTs my lawyer asked me since I took the day off from work do I want to play 18 holes with him. I told him aren’t I supposed to be injured, he said oh yea I forgot. Funny think I also checked out sibon and sibon, they were on 60 minutes once as LI law. Nine Jewish brothers have a law firm OMG it was like the house of lourdes in their, canes, crutches, neck braces, they even had son in laws, sons and nephews that verified your injuries. Sibon wanted to sue the ambuelince driver if he drove slow, the car company, driver, owner of vehicle, insurance company, homeowners policy etc. Said sue them all I will sick all nine of us on them and they will all send a check for 5K each to get rid of us on top of us nailing the driver for six figures. Those guys even creeped me out. Lawsuits are an american tradition. A proud one at at that.

  230. John says:

    Giuliani does not have an annulment? In fact he can’t receive communion as according to the Church he is still married to Donna Hanover.

  231. randy says:

    “if you don’t eat your meat, you can’t have any pudding! how can you have any pudding if you don’t eat your meat! AGH!! just deal with it!”

  232. Sybarite101 X says:

    I also support the idea that the concept of having joe-shmo deciding cases is a flawed approach. I would rather have a panel of experts deciding the outcome.

    I know there are some (many) lawyers on here, so correct me if I’m wrong, but I remember reading that during jury selection they try to weed out scientific and techncially-inclined people as they are more difficult to convince.

    Are there any other international judicial systems based on “professional jurors”?

  233. Frank says:

    BC,
    I see NJ homes that are still selling at outrageous prices, jobs plentiful and consumers with more money than me.
    Things are still good.

  234. njpatient says:

    232 kettle

    “how does giuliani play into jury annulment?”

    It’s a lot easier to get than a church annulment.

    Ba-DUMP-Bum (*Crash*)

  235. njpatient says:

    john beat me to it.

  236. njpatient says:

    237 syb

    who decides who’s on the panel of experts? who decides who’s an “expert” in the first place?

  237. NJLifer says:

    241 – Patient

    A panel of expert experts. “Oh, now I’ve gone crosseyed.” (Austin Powers)

  238. Rich In NNJ says:

    BC,
    I see NJ homes that are still sitting at outrageous prices, jobs disappearing and consumers with less money than before.
    Things aren’t good anymore.

  239. Sybarite101 X says:

    241

    I’m sure some kind of combination of experience and education could be part of a certification process. Anything is better than random dummies off of the street.

    Of course, I could see a professional juror system being potentially susceptible to corruption.

  240. Rich In NNJ says:

    Maywood FUTURE Comp Killer!

    SOLD: 695 MAYWOOD AVE $470,000 5/3/2006

    MLS#: 2833995
    List: $439,900 8/6/2008

  241. Confused In NJ says:

    71. kettle1 Says:
    August 7th, 2008 at 9:42 am
    confused, 40

    what Subaru dealer do you use?

    mrs kettles car died yesterday and am considering a subaru

    Kettle1

    My last three Subaru’s (95, 03, 08) were/are Legacy L Special Edition’s. Fancier then the L, but mutch cheaper then the GT or Limited. Mrs Confused however prefers her racier Impreza with spoiler. If you look at the 09 Legacy it has also added standard traction & stability control. Mrs C likes the fact that the AWD, drives with a glue to the road feel.

  242. kettle1 says:

    could i get an address for this plz?

    MLS#: 2549734

  243. Rich In NNJ says:

    Teaneck

    SOLD: 540 WYNDHAM RD $540,000 6/30/2004

    MLS# 2834022
    List: $549,900 8/6/2008

  244. tbw says:

    Ah Maywood…Think of it like Paramus except with a Hackensack school system.

    Not so prestigious after all, but close to the new Paramus Towne Center

  245. Rich In NNJ says:

    Allendale FUTURE Comp Killer!

    SOLD: 98 BONNIE WAY $965,000 8/1/2006

    MLS#: 2824077
    Orig List: $969,000 6/13/2008
    Last List: $929,000 8/7/2008

  246. BC Bob says:

    Rich [243],

    Here’s a sign of consumer demand. I went to Boston over July 4th, the same hotel as last year. Rooms were $120 less per night, as compared to last year, and I received a $50 gas card.

    Yeah, the consumer is thriving. Damn Europeans. If they weren’t flooding this country, I probably could have booked the room at $200 off, compared to last year.

  247. Confused In NJ says:

    71. kettle1 Says:
    August 7th, 2008 at 9:42 am
    confused, 40

    what Subaru dealer do you use?

    Originally, Subaru of Morristown 95,03(aka Heritage Subaru), now Flemington Subaru 08. Both were good. Salerno Duane Subaru in Newton also 04, depends on home or work county.

  248. kettle1 says:

    Syb, NJP

    You cannot have an incorrupt(?) system when it is run by corrupt individuals. I do not see any justice system “of the people for the people” being pure unless its citizenry are. sadly, we are not :(

    a classic engineering euphemism is “you cant out engineer stupid”. i think the same priciple applies to justice

  249. tbw says:

    Allendale: a nice town that wants to grow up to be Upper Saddle River one day.

  250. kettle1 says:

    thanks confused

  251. NJl$rd says:

    Here are excerpts from your source – Harvard study page 9. I don’t think the study have a clear conclusion to backup your claim neither:

    http://www.rwjf.org/pr/synthesis/reports_and_briefs/pdf/no10_researchreport.pdf

    Figure 4. Results of controlled studies of the impact of tort reforms†
    Signifi cant decrease in
    claims payouts?
    Signifi cant decrease in
    claims frequency?
    Signifi cantly lower liability
    insurance premiums?
    Signifi cant increase in physician
    supply?
    Damages
    cap‡
    YES:
    Danzon 1984 (8)
    Danzon 1986 (9)
    Sloan et al. 1989 (39)
    Blackmon & Zeckhauser
    1991(4)*
    Viscusi & Born 2005 (49)*
    NO:
    Zuckerman et al. 1990 (52)
    Viscusi et al. 1993 (50)*
    YES:
    No studies
    NO:
    Zuckerman et al. 1990 (52)
    YES:
    Zuckerman et al. 1990 (52)
    Danzon et al. 2004 (10)
    Thorpe 2004 (43)
    Viscusi & Born 2005 (49)
    NO:
    Sloan 1985 (38)
    Zuckerman et al. 1990 (52)
    Blackmon & Zeckhauser 1991 (4)|
    Viscusi et al. 1993 (50)
    YES:
    Klick & Stratmann 2003 (24)|
    Encinosa & Hellinger 2005 (13)|
    Hellinger & Encinosa 2003 (20)
    NO:
    Matsa 2005 (27)
    Joint-andseveral
    liability
    reform
    YES:
    No studies
    NO:
    Blackmon & Zeckhauser
    1991 (4)*
    Viscusi et al. 1993 (50)*
    No studies.
    YES:
    Blackmon & Zeckhauser 1991 (4)
    Viscusi et al. 1993 (50)|
    Danzon et al. 2004 (10)
    NO:
    Thorpe 2004 (43)
    YES:
    No studies.
    NO:
    Klick & Stratmann 2003 (24)
    Statutes of
    limitations/
    repose
    YES:
    Danzon 1984 (8)
    NO:
    Sloan et al. 1989 (39)
    Zuckerman et al. 1990 (52))
    Blackmon & Zeckhauser 1991
    (4)*
    YES:
    Danzon 1986 (9)
    Zuckerman et al. 1990 (52)
    NO:
    Danzon 1984 (8)
    YES:
    Zuckerman et al. 1990 (52)
    NO:
    Sloan 1985 (38)
    Blackmon & Zeckhauser 1991 (4)
    No studies.
    Attor ney
    contingencyfee
    limit
    YES:
    No studies.
    NO:
    Danzon 1984 (8)
    Danzon 1986 (9)
    Sloan et al. 1989 (39)
    Zuckerman et al. 1990 (52)
    Blackmon & Zeckhauser 1991
    (4)*
    YES:
    No studies.
    NO:
    Zuckerman et al. 1990 (52)
    YES:
    No studies.
    NO:
    Sloan 1985 (38)
    Zuckerman et al. 1990 (52))
    Blackmon & Zeckhauser 1991 (4)
    Thorpe 2004 (43)
    YES:
    No studies.
    NO:
    Klick & Stratmann 2003 (24)
    Collateralsource
    offset§
    YES:
    Danzon 1984 (8)
    Danzon 1986 (9)
    NO:
    Sloan et al. 1989 (39)
    Zuckerman et al. 1990 (52)
    Blackmon & Zeckhauser 1991
    (4)*
    YES:
    Danzon 1986 (9)
    NO:
    Zuckerman et al. 1990 (52)
    YES:
    No studies.
    NO:
    Sloan 1985 (38)
    Zuckerman et al. 1990 (52)
    Blackmon & Zeckhauser 1991 (4)
    Danzon et al. 2004 (10)
    Thorpe 2004 (43)
    YES:
    No studies.
    NO:
    Klick & Stratmann 2003 (24)
    Pretrial
    screening
    panels
    YES:
    No studies.
    NO:
    Danzon 1984 (8)
    Danzon 1986 (9)
    Sloan et al. 1989 (39)
    Zuckerman et al. 1990 (52)
    YES:
    No studies.
    NO:
    Danzon 1984 (8)
    Danzon 1986 (9)
    Zuckerman et al. 1990 (52)
    YES :
    Sloan 1985 (38)
    NO:
    Zuckerman et al. 1990 (52)
    No studies.
    Periodic
    payment
    YES:
    No studies.
    NO:
    Danzon 1984 (8)
    Sloan et al. 1989 (39)
    Blackmon & Zeckhauser 1991
    (4)*
    YES:
    No studies.
    NO:
    Danzon 1984 (8)
    YES:
    No studies.
    NO:
    Blackmon & Zeckhauser 1991 (4)
    YES:
    No studies.
    NO:
    Klick & Stratmann 2003 (24)
    † An earlier version of this table appeared in Studdert, 2004 (40). The 2005 study by Kessler et al. (23) is excluded because it grouped several reforms together,
    precluding the possibility of drawing inferences about the effects of particular reforms.
    ‡ Studies used different definitions of cap variable. Studies are classified as having significant findings if any specification of a damages cap variable was statistically
    significant.
    * Study modeled insurer losses rather than average award size. Losses are a function of both average award and number of paid claims.
    § Some studies modeled mandatory and discretionary collateral offsets separately. Studies are classified as having significant findings if any specification of a
    collateral source offset variable was statistically significant.
    | Study results were mixed.
    The strongest studies are cited in bold print.
    #211 njpatient Says:
    August 7th, 2008 at 12:26 pm

    NJlord

    Here’s one study (Harvard, jointly with Brigham and Women’s Hospital, so tough to say it’s rigged):

    http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/press-releases/2006-releases/press05102006.html

  252. ben says:

    John, I have to go walk over to UMDNJ on a regular basis to meet with the faculty there. Sad fact is, they are letting anyone over 25 into medical school. I’ll estimate that a good 30% of the student body there is borderline stupid. There is one guy there who is legally blind who is studying to be a surgeon. He’s not allowed to drive a car, but he’ll be allowed to slice your body open.

  253. Nom Deplume says:

    The NJ RE and Tort Reform Report

    [sorry I missed this. Trying to complete a memo on distributions from private foundations. Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.]

    NJP, while statistically bench awards may be greater, IMHO you are less likely to lose before a judge on a questionable case. Also, depends on where you are—Philly juries are notorious for granting big $$$ to sketchy plaintiffs. Suburbs of Boston were considered parsimonious. Finally, there is the judge to consider which is why we have forum shopping and path manipulation.

  254. Against The Grain says:

    He was probably a lousy expert witness and/or worked with lousy lawyers. Any professional who can’t explain his concepts and conclusions in plain lanquage does not know his subject matter well enough to testify.

    “he always bemoaned the fact that whether he was testifying for the defendant or plaintiff the jury usually ignored everything he said as it was technical material not a simple story”

  255. BC Bob says:

    tbw,

    How would you describe the town where you own?

  256. make money says:

    John, I have to go walk over to UMDNJ on a regular basis to meet with the faculty there. Sad fact is, they are letting anyone over 25 into medical school.

    Affirmative action and a student paying bubble price tuition is a compelling argument.

  257. Rich In NNJ says:

    River Vale FUTURE Comp Killer!

    SOLD: 564 SYLVAN RD $549,000 8/16/2004

    MLS#: 2816099
    Orig List: $659,888 7/7/2007
    Last List: $535,000 8/6/2008

  258. For anyone interested in the issues of tort reform, malpractice and general legal issues you might want to check out overlawyered.com

  259. tbw says:

    “tbw,

    How would you describe the town where you own?”

    lol…probably this way:

    A town making the transition from Bella to Ella.

  260. tbw says:

    River Vale: “An hours worth of traffic lights”

    Must be good for the local businesses

  261. Stu says:

    “He’s not allowed to drive a car, but he’ll be allowed to slice your body open.”

    My grandmother (who is now 89 and thank god does not drive anymore) applied and obtained a handicapped license plate due to her limited vision. Unfortunately, her glaucoma got up to her and she can no longer see more than shadows. Of course, this does not stop her from trying to shovel snow or cook.

  262. kettle1 says:

    against the grain,

    the problem with simplifying advanced concepts is that you often lose some of the subtler aspects. The subtler aspects can be the center of the entire argument.

    Then there is my grandmother who served on a jury and found for the defendant. A cars brakes can never fail, because it has never happened to her. to bad the auto company had to issue national recalls a few years later for the same issue

  263. Rich In NNJ says:

    Allendale: a nice town that wants to grow up to be Upper Saddle River one day.

    I agree Allendale is a very nice town but asking prices are no where near USR or SR’s prices.

    River Vale: “An hours worth of traffic lights”

    I don’t think River Vale has more than two traffic lights.

  264. tbw says:

    Are you kidding, to get to River Vale you have to sit in an hours worth of stop and go traffic.

  265. ben says:

    “My grandmother (who is now 89 and thank god does not drive anymore) applied and obtained a handicapped license plate due to her limited vision. Unfortunately, her glaucoma got up to her and she can no longer see more than shadows. Of course, this does not stop her from trying to shovel snow or cook.”

    Yeah well, it’s all fun and games till someone loses and eye, or a kidney. No one ever lost an eye shoveling snow. People regular lose one in surgery because the surgeon was holding the X-ray backwards.

  266. Rich In NNJ says:

    Are you kidding, to get to River Vale you have to sit in an hours worth of stop and go traffic.

    So you’re talking about traffic lights in other towns on the way to River Vale?

  267. NJl$rd says:

    http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d03702.pdf

    “Multiple factors, including falling investment income and rising reinsurance
    costs, have contributed to recent increases in premium rates in our sample
    states. However, GAO found that losses on medical malpractice claims—
    which make up the largest part of insurers’ costs—appear to be the primary
    driver of rate increases in the long run.

    MEDICAL MALPRACTICE INSURANCE Multiple Factors Have Contributed to Increased Premium Rates (Page 2)

    #191 njpatient Says:
    August 7th, 2008 at 11:59 am

    171 NJLord

    “njp, I think tort reform is partially based on this, no? ”

    No. The question was whether rising tort claim costs caused rising malpractice insurance costs. They didn’t. As I already said, during periods when malpractice insurance premiums were going through the roof, tort claim costs were simply not. So you have to find some other explanation.

  268. flowerboy says:

    MD’s are a business like anything else. The MD’s that are making 150-180,000 are working for somebody else. Get your own practice, take a risk, organize into a group business. Double your pay, triple your deductions. There are plenty of businesses making good money because they took a risk to open a business. Not working for somebody else. Risk=Reward.

  269. kettle1 says:

    (Bloomberg) — A year after losses on U.S. subprime mortgages caused a seizure in credit markets worldwide, European companies are starting to default.

    As many as 6 percent to 7 percent of corporate borrowers may fail to pay debts on time in the next year, a 10-fold increase from July, according to Dresdner Kleinwort, a unit of Germany’s third-biggest bank. That would be the highest since July 2003, according to data compiled by Moody’s Investors Service, straining an already faltering economy.

  270. jcer says:

    The issue with malpractice insurance is the same a health insurance is the same as the pension issues. The incredibly low interest rates make the business unsustainable and all the insurers, pension funds, etc have been chasing riskier investments and have NOT been terribly successful at increasing their rate of return. The low interest rates have been the cause of many problems and the fed was too quick to use that weapon to promote growth. Interest rates in general should be a couple hundred basis points higher, not a number below inflation.

  271. BC Bob says:

    “A private-equity billionaire, a former federal government official and a Baltimore newsletter editor have made a documentary film that they hope can do what an endless parade of policy papers has not: Persuade Americans that debt has created a looming economic crisis that would make the Great Depression look like a market correction.”

    “The movie, “I.O.U.S.A.,” debuting Aug. 21, is an 87-minute alarum on what it calls the tsunami of debt bearing down on the United States’ future, caused by the rising national deficit, the trade imbalance and the pending costs of baby boomers cashing in on entitlements.”

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/08/06/AR2008080603569.html

  272. Against The Grain says:

    #266

    It’s very difficult, but not impossible, to simplify advanced concepts. It helps if the explainer is good at creating analogies to explain them, which is an art form itself. It usually requires a different skill set then what is needed to master the concepts in the first place.

  273. NJGator says:

    265/269 Stu and Ben – Just to clarify – The state of NY allowed said legally blind Grandma to maintain her license to DRIVE even though her limited vision rendered her disabled.

    Grandma did get into an accident or 2 before she gave up her keys. While she was still driving, Stu said she used to step over cracks in the sidewalk, as if they were actually stairs.

  274. NJGator says:

    210 Nom – Nice! My first trip to France was tough. If I think and plan our carefully what I want to say, I can actually sounds like I know the language well. I’d add a question and get a rapid fire response back in French. Of course, I think in English, not in French and wouldn’t catch all the words while I was mentally translating back.

    I’d ask for directions and get lost all the time. Someone would said “tout droit” and all I’d hear was “droit”. I’d constantly be going right instead of straight and never finding what I was looking for.

    Didn’t matter. I’d find something else. They were still good times.

  275. njpatient says:

    271 NJLord

    That GAO report was requested by three Republican congressment who had just proposed a bill to cap medical malpractice claims. That’s why the data only cover a small period (1998-2001, when the insurance companies lost a mint in the stock market) and only covers a handful of states. They were cherry-picking the data that supported their bill.

    As a consequence, among those who disagreed with their findings was the American Medical Association.

  276. ben says:

    well, the state of New Jersey would still let my grandfather drive. We knew he had no business driving and took his license and car keys away. We told him, wherever he wants to go, let us know and we’ll drive him.

    My story about the kid who’s legally blind in Med School was to point out that the average doctor coming out of school is not as good as he/she used to be. The same goes for nearly every field and it’s because our educational system has been eroded at all levels. I just find it scary that this kid is going to be allowed to operate on someone in a few years. Btw, when he was in his third year, I was talking about a compound fracture i saw on youtube and he asked me “What’s a compound fracture”. His vision isn’t the only thing that’s not up to par. It’s things like this that make malpractice insurance skyrocket and force everyone else to pay more for healthcare.

  277. Rich In NNJ says:

    TBW?

  278. NJGator says:

    When my grandfather passed away, we did not know that my grandmother had already been diagnosed with Alzheimers. My grandparents would never spend any money and my grandmother was driving a 12 year old car that had no speedometer needle and duct tape holding the gear shift together. My parents made her pony up for a newer used car so that she could drive safely. I was sent over to Covered Bridge to help get her comfortable with it. We buckled up adjusted the lights and mirrors and were ready to go. She then looked at me, pointed to the right and asked me “What way do I turn the wheel to make the car go that way?”. I decreed the lesson over. We should have known something was up when she called AAA to help her shut the dome light off in the old car.

    Luckily for us, my grandmother felt very uncomfortable driving. We never took the license away, just let it expire. She had it in her wallet and still felt good. She always called us to take her where she needed to go.

  279. tbw says:

    Yes, Rich on the way there..

  280. randy says:

    hey clot, as you and BC have been mentioning… NO FLOOR at all under these bank stocks… as we speak they’re falling like a ton of bricks with no buyers in sight. they need the shorts back!

  281. tbw says:

    My friends grandfather was clearly a danger on the road. He could barely walk or see and was so hunched over he could barely see over the steering wheel. The car allowed him and his wife (who didnt drive) freedom. When his wife passed away, he told his family that he wasnt going to drive anymore, and everyone believed him. Well, a few years later he passed away, and when they went to move his car, it started right up, and had a current oil change sticker on the windshield. Turns out gramps never stopped driving!

  282. Victorian says:

    OK. Linens N Things – 25% off your order this weekend – staring today.

  283. Al says:

    Frank Says:
    August 7th, 2008 at 1:33 pm
    BC,
    I see NJ homes that are still selling at outrageous prices, jobs plentiful and consumers with more money than me.
    Things are still good.

    Frank – is your name Bill gates??

    Who made are you the gold standard – for all I know you are living under the bridge , earning 0 and posting on this web-site with stolen lap-top.

  284. John says:

    My buddy with a 1.9 gpa out of stony brook that was rounded to 2 to graduate went to the university of monserate in the islands where he worked on half hacked up cadeviors and got his MD degree on a campus full of pigs and sheep, then he did his internship in England where he saw he first live patents, then he took some bogus test called the MSKIPS and became an emergency room doctor in Florida, thanks to Medicare and Oxford/Aetna he gets paid the same as a real doctor.

  285. Rich In NNJ says:

    Yes, Rich on the way there..

    So, then it all depends on where you are coming from.

  286. njpatient says:

    hmmm

    Al
    Fr*nk’s a classic tr*ll
    You can’t dissuade him, because even he doesn’t believe a word he’s saying.

    His purpose is to obfuscate, not illuminate.

    (Take THAT, Clyde Frazier!)

  287. njpatient says:

    how odd

  288. njpatient says:

    Al
    Frank’s a classic troll
    You can’t dissuade him, because even he doesn’t believe a word he’s saying.

  289. njpatient says:

    His purpose is to 0bfuscate, not illuminate.

    (Take THAT, Clyde Frazier!)

  290. njpatient says:

    His purpose is to obfusc@te, not illuminate.

    (Take THAT, Clyde Frazier!)

  291. njpatient says:

    grim – why does “obfusc@te” lead to moderation?

  292. make money says:

    What’s wrong with Moodies?

    American Express Is Downgraded By Moody’s. (Story to Come)

  293. Doyle says:

    You should have went with “swishin and dishin”…

  294. tbw says:

    I suppose it is better to commute from NY State to River Vale, but if you work anywhere else your commute will be a mess…but hey, it is worth it for the blue ribbon schools…

  295. Nom Deplume says:

    [278] Gator,

    Vous et Stu doit venir a la GTG en Brigadoon, (avec le petit Gator)

  296. grim – why does “obfusc@te” lead to moderation?

    Maybe the filtering software has a sense of irony?

  297. NJGator says:

    Bien sur, Nom!

  298. Stu says:

    “Stu said she used to step over cracks in the sidewalk, as if they were actually stairs.”

    Actually Gator, what I think I said is that she looked like one of those horses that could count.

  299. Stu says:

    Where is BI on the big market down days?

    How much did you lose today BI? How much have you lost in 2008?

  300. njpatient says:

    “Maybe the filtering software has a sense of irony?”

    hee!

  301. John says:

    http://www.jetsshop.com/jets/product.php?productid=18198

    The jets are selling the Farve jerseys like hot cakes.

  302. Nom Deplume says:

    [299]

    Bon! Stu est votre mari, n’est pas?

  303. njpatient says:

    “Farve ”

    sp

    That’s Faaaaaaahhh…vruh.

  304. Stu says:

    Are they taking returns on the Chad jerseys?

  305. Victorian says:

    301 – Stu –

    Well, Bi did predict that DOW was going to lose 90% of its gains of the other day.

  306. gary says:

    Chad must feel like a pair of old, brown loafers.

  307. Stu says:

    “Bon! Stu est votre mari, n’est pas?”

    Vous pariez votre âne!

  308. gary says:

    FYI – Giants/Detroit tonight @ 7:00 PM.

  309. njpatient says:

    306 Stu

    “Where is BI on the big market down days?”

    He doesn’t have Frank’s zen-like ability to transcend reality.

  310. Stu says:

    “Where is BI on the big market down days?”

    My guess would be practicing his best Mortimer Duke impersonation.

  311. make money says:

    Aug. 7 (Bloomberg) — Hovnanian Enterprises Inc., New Jersey’s largest homebuilder, cut the number of unsold houses by more than 50 percent over the past two years after lowering prices and still had 1,500 on its books as of April.

  312. gary says:

    Contract signings rose in June by 9.3 percent in the South, by 4.6 percent in the West, 3.4 percent in the Northeast and 1.3 percent in the Midwest.

    The realtors said the improvement in contract signings “appears to be broadening” and expressed hope that housing legislation signed into law last month will further encourage buyers. The legislation offers a tax credit to first-time home buyers and aims to ward off some foreclosures.

    Shut the f*ck up… you’re all a bunch of lying sacks of sh*t. Good luck eating your cup ‘o soup sitting in your ’93 Buick. Hey, Lawrence Yun: F*ck You!

  313. Nom Deplume says:

    [309]

    Ha! Je voudrais parier certains de mon ane. C’est trop grand!

  314. NJGator says:

    304 Nom – Oui. Je suis la femme du Stu.

  315. gary says:

    Hé, et moi! Je pourrais jouer ce jeu, aussi.

  316. NJLifer says:

    tbw,

    I agree with Rich, there are almost no traffics lights in Rivervale. A 10 minute ride to the GSP or the NYS Thruway. As far as commuting to the city, the Pascack train line stops in just about every town bordering Rivervale (Montvale, Park Ridge, and Hillsdale).

  317. NJLifer says:

    …and I forgot that Westwood also has a train stop.

  318. NJGator says:

    Tres bien, Gary. I am impressed. I never did get all my tenses down pat en francais. Damn subjunctif!

  319. cjgal says:

    ppl, how’s the market doing in Central NJ ? how would a condo in westgate @ edison 08820 be worth ?

  320. WaitingToBuy says:

    chicagofinance did you used to listen to WLIR?

  321. Nicholas says:

    My french is very rusty but it comes back in waves as I read what you guys have posted.

    I regret that I had to look up “âne” but at least I was rewarded with learning a new french word.

    good stuff…

  322. Clotpoll says:

    Putain de bordel de merde! Taissez-vous. Vous.

  323. Nicholas says:

    Tisk tisk tisk Clotpoll

  324. NJGator says:

    It looks like we are going to have one heck of a cultured militia out at the compund, huh?

  325. gary says:

    NJGator,

    Ok, I’ll ‘fess up… I had a little help from a thing called alta babel fish. :) Go ahead… you can serve me up an electronic slap in the head! lol

  326. Nom Deplume says:

    [323]

    Oui, mes francais c’est merde, aussi.

    I got the gist of what Stu said, but still had to look it up. My problem is that I took one semester of french in the mid-70’s and never looked at it again until we sent Little Nom to a bilingual school.

  327. lostinny says:

    Well ya’ll have lost me. Wake me up when the German starts.

  328. Nom Deplume says:

    [326] Heck yeah. My compound is gonna have a wine cellar next to the gun locker. Think I am gonna go all commando and survivalist? The idea is for it to be a vacation/timeshare kind of deal until TSHTF.

    I periodically monitor properties in Pike, Carbon and Wayne Counties. Choice ones are being snapped up. Seems I am not the only one who wants a retreat in case of TEOTWAWKI.

  329. NJGator says:

    329 – I took my brother, who doesn’t speak a word of French to Paris back in 2001. While we were at the top of La Tour Eiffel, he got a little (ok big) tummy ache and occupied the one bathroom up there for over 30 minutes. People were banging on the door and talking to him in a funny language. He didn’t know what to say and got all stressed out about it. I told him bext time just say, “Merde! Merde! Beaucoup de merde! That should get em off your back.”

  330. make money says:

    E flet dakush Ship? Shpijat shkun per pith t’sames.

  331. Nom Deplume says:

    [329]Lost,

    Kein problem. Gehe zu schlafen.

  332. make money says:

    NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Washington Mutual Chief Executive Kerry Killinger said at a recent analyst meeting he did not believe the company needed to raise more capital, after a series of moves the company has undergone to bolster its balance sheet.

  333. lostinny says:

    333
    Danke Nom. :P

  334. Nom Deplume says:

    [331] gator

    for next time

    Je suis malade. Laizzez-moi!

  335. John says:

    Actually, my old neighbor we used to just prop up in the seat of his old 69 Impala when we were around 12 to make beer runs. We were lucky he died in the winter cause we got a few months after he died of beer runs before he started getting stinky.

  336. make money says:

    Shapiro noted the company is seeing preliminary signs of stabilization in some of the hardest hit housing markets especially in California. Also particularly in the Golden State, deposit competition and pricing pressures increased in the third quarter, where depositors remain unsettled by recent bank closures.

    In my book,

    Depositor competition=Bank Run

  337. RentL0rd says:

    off topic…

    Has anyone else noticed that Yahoo mail is down for over an hour now.

  338. Nom Deplume says:

    [337]

    Okay, I may just need to post my next “John” story tomorrow instead of next week.

  339. lostinny says:

    339
    Mine just went down I think.

  340. NJLifer says:

    John = “Mickey O’Neil”

    (The charcter that Brad Pitt played in the movie Snatch) I can’t understand a word you’re saying.

  341. RentL0rd says:

    Funny thing is my yahoo msngr tells me I have an (important) email.. but i can’t get to it. Talk about getting teased!

  342. chicagofinance says:

    For whatever reason, this appears to be exactly the kind of useless nonsense that I assume would give grim a boner…so it belongs on his blog…

    ENJOY!

    http://www.vimeo.com/1211060

  343. bairen says:

    #337 john,

    Did you grow up on fantasy Island?

  344. Rich In NNJ says:

    Elmwood Park FUTURE Comp Killer!

    SOLD: 52 GODWIN AVE $420,000 10/4/2005

    MLS#: 2814195 (NEW KITCHEN, GRANITE COUNTERTOPS, STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES, NEW WINDOWS, NEW ROOF, NEW SIDING
    Orig List: $489,000 10/31/2006
    Last List: $419,999 8/7/2008

  345. Clotpoll says:

    make (338)-

    Bank run, in slow motion.

  346. Clotpoll says:

    John (337)-

    Now you’re gonna tell us you wrote “Weekend at Bernie’s”?

  347. Tom says:

    “Funny thing is my yahoo msngr tells me I have an (important) email.. but i can’t get to it. Talk about getting teased!”

    The important email is that your email is down.

  348. chicagofinance says:

    WaitingToBuy Says:
    August 7th, 2008 at 4:08 pm
    chicagofinance did you used to listen to WLIR?

    Yes…except I couldn’t pick it up at school, only at home, and only sometimes because all the windows in my apartment faced west.

    I forget the name of the DJ that used to be on in the afternoon. He used to do a ridiculous impression of a Jewish woman and say “…life is like a casaba melon…”

    Also, he used to take dedications from listeners….one time he said “….this is a dedication from Chris to Tom…” the song was Vasoline from Stone Temple Pilots….

  349. Clotpoll says:

    Plume (330)-

    If you let me take a portion of the initial cap and put it into first growths, DRC, Comte de Vogue, etc…we may have something to talk about.

    I’d also like to be the compound pit bull consultant.

  350. John says:

    My friend once had a one night stand with Malibu Sue back in the 1980s.

  351. chicagofinance says:

    John Says:
    August 7th, 2008 at 4:49 pm
    My friend once had a one night stand with Malibu Sue back in the 1980s.

    Boooooya…

  352. John says:

    Serious, you guys know any charity that actually gives your car to a poor person or charity so I can get the full write off. I called 1-800 charity cars and they want ten years or newer. They just will bang the old car out for $500 bucks at auction.

  353. Nom Deplume says:

    [354] John

    Do a search. These actually exist, usually thru a garage that refurbishes the car.

  354. Nom Deplume says:

    [351] Clot,

    You must be selling more houses than most. My wine cellar is considerably more pedestrian.

  355. NJGator says:

    Clot 351 – Have no fear. Our Goldendoodle can protect us all.

  356. RentL0rd says:

    #349.. it goes a step further and gives me the sender and email subject. But ofcourse I can’t read it. It’s still down. grrrr…

    I have procrastinated on switching my mail provider.. high time now

  357. John says:

    Actually, I used to go to Malibus on WLIR night, also in HS WLIR had a thing at my Fathers Place. I saw Stephenwolf there when I was 17 on a school night and had a really bad hangover in Spanish class. Speaking of Roslyn back in HS they would get around 3,000 HS kids drinking downtown on Thursday nights that they had to shut down all the streets in town. Kids would come from like 20 miles away. I loved when it was cool to drink and drive and stay out til 2am on school nights in HS, well except when some bonehead t-boned my car on bell blvd and took some 20 pounds of bondo in auto shop class to get it ready for senior beach day.

  358. stu says:

    I used a translator as well. When I took my placement exams at Montclair State College, I was the only dolt dumb enough to actually try to do well on them. Well I did so well that I placed out of Spanish. I figured French would be cool to learn help be improve my pronunciation of hockey player’s names. Well after two miserable semeters (remember my GPA from my frosh year from my John story?) I pretty remembered how to say, “Je ne sais pas and Qui coupe le fromage.”

    You would be surprised how much mileage you can get out of those two phrases.

    The problem with French is that they don’t pronounce half of what is written. The problem with France is that their greatest military victory was when they sank GreenPeace’s Rainbow Warrior.

  359. Rich In NNJ says:

    RE: 344

    Isn’t that Grim, front row, third from left around the 1:59 mark?

  360. John says:

    http://www.wlir.fm/92.7%20wlir%20tribute%20site!.htm

    Malibu sue picture, LIR was best radio station ever, period.

  361. stu says:

    LIR was really good. HTG in Eatontown ran a distant second.

  362. lostinny says:

    Thanks ChiFi. That was funny.

  363. Sean says:

    Dickie Syron has been a busy boy on CNBC yesterday and today defending his actions.

    He iss buddies with Greenspan, he blames HUD, blames everyone else but himself for the problems he allowed to occur on his watch.

    FYI, he was hired to “fix” Freddie after the accounting scandal when they misstated earnings in 2000-2002.

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=815191018&play=1

    Go park your car in the flipping garage already Syron.

  364. House Hunter says:

    cindy…not sure if I posted this for you before…good info that is California based, but can relate outside of that state as well.
    http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/

  365. NJGator says:

    Stu – It’s a good thing Bertrand doesn’t lurk around here!

    Say what you want about the french, but before the dollar was killed, I could go there and get a drinkable bottle of red wine for $2, a baguette for 50 cents and a big wedge of brie for $1.25. Life doesn’t get much better than that!

    Now throw some extra juice boxes in the fridge and bring a pizza menu with you to the train station, so we can order dinner on the way home.

  366. lostinny says:

    Wow that brings back a lot of memories. Some great pics on that site.

  367. Nom Deplume says:

    [358] Gator

    Back in Philly, I had no fear when out with my Boston Terrier. Course, the 9mm I carried helped.

  368. Rich In NNJ says:

    From MarketWatch (Audio)

    Patrick Newport: Pending home sales news “aberration”

    June’s pending home sales report was “just an aberration.” So says Patrick Newport, housing economist at Global Insight. He says the rise was mainly due to banks dropping prices on foreclosed homes. Newport tells John Wordock home sales could still drop another 10% this year as credit markets get worse, mortgage applications drop and mortgage rates go up.

  369. Nom Deplume says:

    [360] John

    If you were using 20 lbs of bondo, methinks you were doing something wrong. Did you not even try to pull the dents first? You know, with that tool we used to pop ignitions?

  370. Sean says:

    So when is Cuomo gonna drop the dime on Wamu?

    He slapped the the wrists on Citi over the ARS debacle, and he has been holding the WAMU card since November.

    http://www.legalnewsline.com/news/203468-cuomo-says-company-inflated-home-appraisals

  371. Tom says:

    Nom 371,

    Did you ever go shooting at firing line on front street? I used to go there sometimes years ago when I was in the area.

  372. Tom says:

    I think that’s what it was called. Been a while.

  373. Fiddy Cents on the Dollar says:

    Ah, WLIR…what a great radio station back in the day. I used to rent a house in the Highlands Hills, near Twin Lights. The view of the ocean was spectacular and at that altitude, I got the clear signal from Long Island.

    Their Tuesday Night Live concert series provided many cassette tapes.

  374. njpatient says:

    334 lostinny

    “Well ya’ll have lost me. Wake me up when the German starts.”

    Wach’ auf! Der Nom hat schon Deutsch gesprochen.

  375. lostinny says:

    Ja ja Patient. Ich habe gesehen.

  376. njpatient says:

    john

    “My friend once had a one night stand with Malibu Sue back in the 1980s.”

    My friend once had a one night stand with Jen Anniston back in the 1980s.

  377. NJGator says:

    371 Nom – I only ‘pack’ a treo with me when I walk the dog. He’s afraid of kitty cats, but most folks only notice his size. He’s 55lb and because he’s part poodle can stand on his hind legs. When he does that, he’s almost as tall as me!

  378. Sybarite101 X says:

    Off to see the Police!

  379. Clotpoll says:

    Plume (357)-

    My tastes are top-shelf. My wallet is not.

  380. RayC says:

    # njpatient Says:
    August 7th, 2008 at 5:36 pm

    john

    “My friend once had a one night stand with Malibu Sue back in the 1980s.”

    My friend once had a one night stand with Jen Anniston back in the 1980s.

    ———————

    As if this I didn’t already know this, I would much rather be njpatient’s friend.

  381. Clotpoll says:

    More ARS woes for banks. 12 more state investigations just announced. Many banks/brokers involved; each state will lead-investigate two of them. C in the middle of the g@ngbang.

    bi…bi…bi???

  382. Sean says:

    Was Bi picked up today?

    http://tinyurl.com/5jhbrn

  383. Cindy says:

    (371) Thank you House Hunter – Dr. Housing Bubble is now in my favorites..

    “10 Reason Why California is Years Away From a Housing Bottom: Rebuttal to those calling for a bottom for CA Housing.”

    Reason #9 – Feedback Loop
    “Our economy was fueled by real estate.”

    One of the points so often overlooked is the unemployment problem posed by the housing downturn here in CA. It seemed like anybody and everybody was connected to housing in one way or another for years… Also, the loss of state revenue. “The government was collecting beaucoup tax receipts from the decade long spending orgy.”

    Excellent essay – Thank you so much for posting it for me.

  384. BC Bob says:

    Cindy[391],

    Housing/consumer spending was our economy, post 9/11. It will go down in history as the fabricated/cartoon economy, led by Humpty-Dumpty.

  385. Nom Deplume says:

    [378] Tom

    No, but recently went to Wican’s in Furlong.

  386. Cindy says:

    (392) BC – And California will continue the brainless image we have always had as the most asinine of the cartoon characters…

  387. Nom Deplume says:

    [381-82]

    Nein, nein, Der Nom kennt keine Deutsche!

  388. lostinny says:

    Nom
    Sehr gut! Du kannst Deutsch sprechen!

  389. Nom Deplume says:

    Nein es ist alles aus dem Internet und meiner au pair!

  390. Firestormik says:

    RE: tbw Says:
    August 7th, 2008 at 10:17 am
    Even if you have one child, you need an SUV because of the safety of all wheel drive and you certainly need all the cargo space to haul your child’s toys, large Bugaboo stroller, and assorted food and beverages. An SUV is the only way a young parent can live their busy busy hectic lifestyle and keep their child constantly entertained. Busy Busy Busy…
    ———————————-
    Grrr
    Do some research before posting something like “safety of SUV with AWD”.
    It’s nowhere safe comparing to full size sedans – not for you, not for the other people on the road. And believe me, Bugaboo and all the stuff fits perfectly in the trunk of my Sonata 06.

  391. Clotpoll says:

    lost (396)-

    Back in the day, the PVC and speaking German must’ve been a helluva 1-2 combination for you…

  392. lostinny says:

    Clot
    It sure was. BTW, do you know anyone who wants some slightly worn f@tish boots?

  393. lostinny says:

    Re: Cars
    I got a postcard today from the Toyota dealer DH bought his car from. It says they are desperate for used cars and will offer 1K over blue book value when you trade in your Prius, Echo, Yaris, Corolla, Matrix Camry, Avalon or Rav4.
    Sign of the times. I thought dealers try to kill you on trade ins.

  394. NJGator says:

    Nissan sent me a letter last week inviting me to come into the dealership to discuss a trade in on my vehicle. They claimed there was a large demand for my 2004 XTerra. I laughed.

    I think I need another glass of red wine.

  395. Clotpoll says:

    lost (400)-

    I take the Fifth.

  396. lostinny says:

    Nice Clot but I don’t think now would be a good time to contact him about it.

  397. BC Bob says:

    Normally, yes we are in unchartered waters, firms raise captial to fund expansion. Is there enough captial to plug the dikes? Thain did state that there is no need for further capital expansion. Right? I think he’s right. It’s strictly about survival.

    “Aug. 7 (Bloomberg) — Merrill Lynch & Co. said it will offer to buy back about $10 billion in auction-rate securities from retail clients after Citigroup Inc. agreed to take similar steps under a settlement with U.S. and state regulators.”

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ady1qyweQDYo&refer=home

  398. BC Bob says:

    HMMMNN? The fed’s charter was to pump? Who got pumped? Let’s rephrase, who got humped?

    “Almost a year after the Federal Reserve began to cut its target rate for overnight loans between banks to 2 percent from 5.25 percent, borrowing costs for states, cities, hospitals and municipal authorities are going in the opposite direction.”

    “The world is falling apart” for borrowers, said Robert Doty, the president of American Governmental Financial Services, an advisory firm in Sacramento.

    [Edit, I agree. It’s gonna be a long wal home]

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a2xU6iexvH1E&refer=home

  399. NJl$rd says:

    Another chapter of ‘Captain Thain Saving Private ML’. Smart move by Thain.

    #406 BC Bob Says:
    August 7th, 2008 at 9:08 pm

    Normally, yes we are in unchartered waters, firms raise captial to fund expansion. Is there enough captial to plug the dikes? Thain did state that there is no need for further capital expansion. Right? I think he’s right. It’s strictly about survival.

  400. chicagofinance says:

    John Loscalzo

    chicagofinance Says:
    August 7th, 2008 at 4:48 pm
    I forget the name of the DJ that used to be on in the afternoon. He used to do a ridiculous impression of a Jewish woman and say “…life is like a casaba melon…”

    Also, he used to take dedications from listeners….one time he said “….this is a dedication from Chris to Tom…” the song was Vasoline from Stone Temple Pilots….

  401. livingresponsibly says:

    to all these broke realtors:

    waaaaahh!

  402. What share some of my frustration in the NJ housing market

    http://frustratednjhomebuyer.blogspot.com/

  403. AlexM says:

    I found your site on technorati and read a few of your other posts. Keep up the good work. I just added your RSS feed to my Google News Reader. Looking forward to reading more from you down the road!

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