Thu 14 Aug 2008
From Bloomberg:
U.S. Foreclosures Increase 55%, Bank Seizures Rise to Record
Bank repossessions almost tripled in July and U.S. foreclosure filings increased 55 percent from a year earlier as falling prices cut homeowner equity, accelerating the housing decline, RealtyTrac Inc. said.
Bank seizures rose 184 percent, the most since reporting began in January 2005, the Irvine, California-based seller of foreclosure data said today in a statement. More than 272,000 properties, or one in 464 U.S. households, got a default notice, was warned of a pending auction or were foreclosed on. Nevada, California and Florida had the highest rates.
“It’s getting worse,” Rick Sharga, RealtyTrac’s executive vice president for marketing, said in an interview. “The number of properties that have been foreclosed on by the banks and still haven’t sold is the highest we’ve ever seen.”
Total filings rose 8 percent from the previous month to 272,171, just shy of the record 273,001 set in May, said RealtyTrac, which has a database of more than 1.5 million properties. Through July, 775,244 properties were owned by banks, compared with about 445,000 for all of 2007 and about 224,000 in 2006, Sharga said.
From the AP:
US foreclosure filings surge 55 percent
The number of homeowners stung by the dramatic decline in the U.S. housing market jumped last month as foreclosure filings grew by more than 50 percent compared with the same month a year ago, according to data released Thursday.
Nationwide, more than 272,000 homes received at least one foreclosure-related notice in July, up 55 percent from about 175,000 in the same month last year and up 8 percent from June, RealtyTrac Inc. said. That means one in every 464 U.S. households received a foreclosure filing last month.
From Reuters:
Home foreclosure filings up 55 pct in July
U.S. foreclosure activity in July rose 55 percent from a year earlier as a slump in once-sizzling housing markets forced yet more borrowers to default on their mortgages, according to a monthly report.
…
That means one in every 464 U.S. households received a foreclosure filing in July, the firm said. Bank repossessions (REOs) rose 184 percent year-over-year. Default notices were up 53 percent, and auction notices rose 11 percent.“The sharp rise in REOs, combined with slow sales, has resulted in a bloated inventory of bank-owned properties for sale,” James Saccacio, chief executive of Irvine, California-based RealtyTrac, said in a statement.
RealtyTrac now has more than 750,000 properties in its active REO database, or about 17 percent of the inventory of existing homes for sale reported in June by the National Association of Realtors, RealtyTrac said.
August 14th, 2008 at 6:18 am
From the Star Ledger:
Bergen County pair charged in multimillion-dollar mortgage fraud
Two Bergen County men were arrested Wednesday and two co-conspirators were being sought in what authorities said was a multimillion-dollar mortgage fraud and property-flipping scheme involving rental properties in Paterson, according to the Record newspaper.
A 25-count indictment charges Gerald Carti, 61, of Oakland; Frederick Ugwu, 51, of Saddle River; Renford Davis, 37, of Paterson; and Amer Mir, 39, of Jersey City with conspiring from 2002 to 2005 to obtain millions of dollars in mortgage loans for unqualified borrowers to purchase homes at inflated prices, according to the Hackensack-based newspaper.
Carti, a loan officer and shareholder of Pine Brook-based U.S. Mortgage Corp., was arrested at his home. Ugwu, who bought and resold properties in and around Paterson, surrendered to the FBI in Newark. They appeared in Newark before U.S. Magistrate Judge Patty Shwartz, who set bail at $1 million bond each, secured by various properties.
August 14th, 2008 at 6:23 am
Ah. 2nd
August 14th, 2008 at 6:28 am
Do we have any new data in brigadoon :)
August 14th, 2008 at 6:36 am
From the Star Ledger:
N.J. Lottery sales rise as economy turns down
The economy may be down and gas prices up, but people with dreams found enough dollars to purchase more New Jersey lottery tickets in the past year than during the previous 12 months.
Lured by the hope of striking it rich, players spent $2.53 billion on state lottery tickets in the year that ended June 30, $18 million more than the same period in 2006-07, or an increase of 0.7 percent.
Lottery officials are not sure what caused the slight increase in sales. It could be the larger jackpots in the Mega Millions game when there is no top prize winner and the money is rolled over to the next drawing. It could be the fact that a week of sales was lost in 2006 during the state government shutdown.
Or it could be, as some experts believe, that people are playing more during economic hard times and hoping they’ll solve their financial problems by hitting the jackpot.
August 14th, 2008 at 6:37 am
From the Record:
New Jersey foreclosures up 11 percent
Foreclosures in New Jersey rose 11 percent from July 2007 to July 2008, RealtyTrac said today . Nationally, foreclosures were up 55 percent, RealtyTrac said.
One in every 751 households in New Jersey was in some stage of foreclosure in July, compared with one in every 464 nationwide, RealtyTrac said.
August 14th, 2008 at 7:02 am
Cindy-
Today’s pension fund article, by Mike Morgan. He gets right into Calpers:
http://tinyurl.com/6yl9an
August 14th, 2008 at 7:22 am
From the Star Ledger:
Foreign investors are slow to buy U.S. real estate, survey finds
o much for all the chatter about foreign investors flooding the U.S. housing market and snapping up bargains left and right.
Although the weakening U.S. dollar and declining home values were supposed to prove an irresistible combination for international home buyers, so far the script hasn’t quite played out that way.
According to the National Association of Realtors, 26 percent of Realtors who participated in a recent survey said they worked with at least one foreign client between May 2007 to May 2008. That’s down from 32 percent in the previous survey.
“The decline in foreign home buying could reflect the general downturn in the U.S. housing markets,” the NAR wrote in its 2008 Profile of International Home Buying Activity. “Foreign buyers — like U.S. buyers — may be waiting for home prices to continue to decline in order to purchase a property at a lower price.”
“Some foreign buyers may be reticent to invest in a U.S. property until they are assured that their investment will ‘pay off.’”
The study was based on responses from about 4,000 Realtors who work with international real estate investors.
According to the report, foreign investors who actually made the leap and bought property in America seemed to favor southern and western states, and were more inclined to pay cash for their properties — 40 percent, compared with just 7 percent of domestic homebuyers.
More than 25 percent of the estimated 150,000 to 190,000 sales to foreign buyers were in Florida. Other states popular with foreigners were California, Texas and Arizona..
The typical foreign buyer bought a single-family home for $297,400 with the intention of using the property as a vacation home. Foreign buyers purchased properties that cost an average of 36 percent more than domestic buyers, and 14 percent of properties purchased by foreigners cost $750,000 or more, according to the findings.
August 14th, 2008 at 7:43 am
Hey Pat, you still around?
Was wondering if you had the name of that Indian restaurant in Bucks County.
August 14th, 2008 at 7:48 am
From the Star Ledger:
Newark receives a $45M boost
Newark received a $45 million bailout from New Jersey taxpayers Thursday in return for accepting the state designation as a “distressed city,” which brings tight spending limits and state oversight of hiring and finances.
The special infusion of aid for the state’s largest city will head off what otherwise would have been a property tax increase of almost $800 for the typical Newark household, said Michelle Thomas, Newark’s acting business administrator.
Since taking office in 2006, Mayor Cory Booker has issued stern warnings about the city’s fiscal crisis. The city trimmed its payroll in 2007 by 380 employees through layoffs and buyouts. Booker has also signed off on more than $1 million in pay hikes through executive orders.
Thomas said since 2006, Booker has trimmed the city payroll by 453 people, cut the city budget by $52 million and boosted revenue from payroll taxes and other sources by millions of dollars.
August 14th, 2008 at 7:56 am
[7],
Another theory/wish/hope/dream from the bulls, blown out of the water.
August 14th, 2008 at 8:00 am
“Greenspan sees house price bottom in 2009: report”
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080813/bs_nm/usa_economy_greenspan_dc
August 14th, 2008 at 8:01 am
OK, AG, which call is it? What has changed in 2 weeks besides record foreclosures?
“July 31 (Bloomberg) — Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said falling U.S. home prices are “nowhere near the bottom” and the resulting market turmoil isn’t showing signs of abating.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a4jioRRKzw5s&refer=worldwide
August 14th, 2008 at 8:06 am
Back to dead man walking.
“Is the U.S. Economy Safe?”
“What Banks And The Government Are Not Telling Us About 2009—The Next Shoes You Hear Drop May Be Very Loud Ones”
“The U.S. banking system is essentially insolvent. The Treasury, Federal Reserve, FASB, and Congress are colluding to keep the American public in the dark for as long as possible. They are trying to buy time and prop up these banks so they can convince enough fools to give them more capital. They will continue to write off debt for many quarters to come. We could have a zombie banking system for a decade.”
http://www.thecuttingedgenews.com/index.php?article=685
August 14th, 2008 at 8:06 am
(6) Clot
Thank You…I think. “For the most part, the pension problem is totally out of sight. It’s long term, down the road for most people. And with any good Ponzi Scheme, the alarm won’t go off until it is too late. When we finally wake up and realize Wall Street raided the pension funds, it will be too late and the boys and girls with the money will be long gone.”
Also, mine is a defined benefit program (they take it from my check and the district matches the funds.) Turns out, I read a bit on the PBGC - Pension Benefit Guarantee Corp. - defined benefits aren’t covered by this FDICish organization. Because “defined contributions plans - by contrast and definition - are always “fully funded.” Thus Congress saw no need to provide insurance protection for participants.”
CalPERS retirement benefits are guaranteed by state law. But this state is headed for bankruptcy….Here’s the kicker Clot, I am only relying partially on CalPERS - I also taught for 12 years in Oregon so the other portion of my retirement will be coming from STRS - Oregon Teachers Retirement. Won’t that be fun.
Like I said -I need to pay off my 1150 sq. ft. house and plant a garden in the flower beds. The utility bills are pretty low and I can bike anywhere I need to go. Ah, retirement!
August 14th, 2008 at 8:08 am
Frifteenth!
August 14th, 2008 at 8:09 am
BC (12)-
He is so brain-addled, I think the first thing that comes to mind is what comes out his mouth.
Either that…or Bill Gross told him to quit talking about any type of stabilization in housing markets. The bailout gravy train only continues as long as things stay in free fall.
August 14th, 2008 at 8:16 am
Cindy (14)-
‘Because defined contributions plans - by contrast and definition - are always “fully funded.”’
Fully funded, as in: the money is actually, physically there? Or, fully funded, as in: our models tell us that the money will be there, for the foreseeable future?
August 14th, 2008 at 8:20 am
(17) Oh no, I think it is as in: We took the money out of their checks and gave it to CalPERS to manage so of course everything is okay.”
August 14th, 2008 at 8:21 am
I am a pretty spry old broad. I can see myself teaching another 10 years. No, I don’t want to - but I will if I have to.
August 14th, 2008 at 8:22 am
Clot [16],
My hunch, this is exactly why Paulson {John} is paying him. Try to goose the markets, big John can short more?
August 14th, 2008 at 8:22 am
CPI and initial claims numbers come out at 8:30. Initial claims was at an astounding 455K last week. Market expects 435K, I expect 470K :)
August 14th, 2008 at 8:27 am
From the BondBuyer:
Mass. Panic Over Ballot?
Referendum Could Eliminate Income Tax
Massachusetts could lose its largest revenue stream if voters in November approve an initiative to eliminate the state’s income tax, which brings in roughly $12.5 billion to the commonwealth’s coffers.
http://www.bondbuyer.com/article.html?id=200808133GJLGQV6
August 14th, 2008 at 8:29 am
Stu (21)-
Always safe to go with the Armageddon call.
August 14th, 2008 at 8:30 am
#7 grim,
The problem here is that places like Europe and the Far East have their own credit crunch and I assume will not lend on overseas property especially in the US. Unless foreign nationals are paying cash, the LTV requirements from the US lenders is around 40% after they have had all orifices inspected.
August 14th, 2008 at 8:30 am
I’m tired of the word, Armageddon.
Gottendamerung. That’s the ticket. Much classier…not as fundamentalist.
August 14th, 2008 at 8:34 am
Consumer prices surge more than expected, with 5.6% annual inflation rate highest since ‘91; weekly jobless claims slip to 450,000.
Not Armageddon, but it doesn’t exactly smell like roses either.
August 14th, 2008 at 8:36 am
#25 - Gottendamerung - I’m personally fond of Ragnarok, where even the gods die.
August 14th, 2008 at 8:42 am
CPI up .8% in July; 5.6% yoy. Biggest increase in 17 yrs.
August 14th, 2008 at 8:43 am
Be careful Tosh.
Your Dungeons and Dragons is showing.
August 14th, 2008 at 8:47 am
#29 - ssssh! I’m a cool kid now!
August 14th, 2008 at 8:47 am
Stu (26)-
We should just think in terms of 10:
- 10% inflation
- 10% jobless rate
Any talk by the gubmint is probably lies and spin.
August 14th, 2008 at 8:48 am
Got gold?
August 14th, 2008 at 8:48 am
The real estate terrorist scourge has absolutely ruined the vehicles that most of us traditionally use for retirement. At this point, it is unwise to assume that traditional investments or pension plans can be relied upon.
When I look at investing in the most basic sense, absent of financial alchemy, my question is whether investment is going to pay me cash back right now and not be reliant on someone else coming along and agreeing to buy it from me for more than I paid. (Terrorist activity has ruined that game).
For me, the best retirement investment I can make is in a small business that sells something anchored to the everyday wants and needs of people (i.e. the real economy); preferably something passive that does not require a lot of active management while generating cash flow every day. Laudermats and car washes are good examples of these sorts of businesses. A good business of this sort can pay one in perpetuity. I think many people are going to come to this view.
Cindy Says:
August 14th, 2008 at 8:21 am
I am a pretty spry old broad. I can see myself teaching another 10 years. No, I don’t want to - but I will if I have to.
August 14th, 2008 at 8:49 am
#11 BC Bob: Yeah saw that. Why can’t the old geezer go softly into the night.
When Volcker stepped down, he faded away for many years, so as not to upstage Greenspan.
Too bad Greenspan does not have the same class. He still demands to be the center of attention.
I have to believe every time he speaks it must infuriate Bergabe.
August 14th, 2008 at 8:49 am
#25 I like the word “Doomed.” It has a nice post-Apocolyptic nuclear holocaust feel to it where everyone will be sitting in the rubble of an ash-strewn world wondering what happened.
August 14th, 2008 at 8:49 am
#32 Clot
Got Groceries?
August 14th, 2008 at 8:50 am
45million for newark,,
picked the pocket of the NJ taxpayer again.
whats next?
August 14th, 2008 at 8:51 am
#16:Either that…or Bill Gross told him to quit talking about any type of stabilization in housing markets. The bailout gravy train only continues as long as things stay in free fall.
So I geuss he forgot what Gross told him less than 2 weeks ago.
August 14th, 2008 at 8:52 am
“For me, the best retirement investment I can make is in a small business that sells something anchored to the everyday wants and needs of people (i.e. the real economy)”
50.5,
Stop making sense. We may have to upgrade you to 75.75?
August 14th, 2008 at 8:57 am
There is an article in today’s FT about how second mortgage holders are blocking the FHA bailout since they get nothing as part of the bail out package. They have to agree to give up the lien on the property and get nothing back in return.
August 14th, 2008 at 8:58 am
(33) So reinvestor - Do you think I should quit teaching and open a car wash? I’m more inclined to go with PGC @ 36 and open a fruit and vegetable stand in my front yard.
Just yank up the lawn and go for it…
August 14th, 2008 at 8:59 am
#33 - Laundromats and car washes are good examples of these sorts of businesses.
I think the recent utility costs for both of these (esp. the laundromats) may be seriously eating into any profits.
August 14th, 2008 at 9:05 am
From MarketWatch:
Consumer prices jump 0.8% in July
U.S. consumer prices jumped a greater-than-expected 0.8% in July, marked by big increases in energy, food, clothing and cigarettes, the Labor Department reported Thursday.
The core consumer price index, which measures retail-level inflation after excluding volatile food and energy inputs, rose 0.3% for the second straight month.
Coming in much worse than anticipated, the pair of red-hot inflation readings seem certain to swell the chorus of critics urging the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to quell inflation.
Economists had predicted that the seasonally adjusted CPI would rise 0.5% and that the core CPI would increase 0.2%, according to a survey by MarketWatch.
Consumer prices are up 5.6% in the past year, the biggest year-over-year increase since January 1991. The CPI has surged at a 10.6% annualized rate in the past three months.
The core CPI has risen 2.5% in the past year, the biggest gain since January. The core rate’s rising at a 3.5% annual rate in the past three months.
The CPI rose 1.1% in June, with the core rate up 0.3%.
August 14th, 2008 at 9:06 am
Cindy Says:
August 13th, 2008 at 9:02 pm
Chicago - Any idea if Calpers knows what they are doing?…Can you hazard a guess?
C: don’t worry about CalPERS…..seriously…don’t even give it a second thought…
August 14th, 2008 at 9:07 am
“45million for newark,,
picked the pocket of the NJ taxpayer again.
whats next?”
I know. We should build a giant polo stadium next to the Prudential Center. Lord knows, that Newark residents can’t survive on ice hockey alone.
August 14th, 2008 at 9:11 am
Blame it on the short sellers.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_8rpY5fQK-UQ/SKJRZntGs8I/AAAAAAAACy4/aItBIO4XLzw/s1600-h/loss812.png
August 14th, 2008 at 9:14 am
Cool chart BC!
Did GS not participate in the shenanigans or have they just not revealed it yet?
August 14th, 2008 at 9:14 am
[22] Another Mass. tax revolt. I love it.
This income tax issue has been simmering for years when Cellucci imposed, and promised to roll back, a “temporary” hike from 5% to 5.5% but never did. I recall also that toll booths were supposed to come off the Turnpike when the bonds were paid off–this occurred in the 90’s but the booths stayed, and I think there was a referendum then to eliminate them, which failed (going on memory here).
Fact is, Mass. cannot survive without some form of income tax; the referendum, if sustained, would paralyze the state and cause utter chaos in its finances. The unspoken goal is to play a game of chicken with the legislature. The referendum could force the legislature to reduce the current tax in a preemptive strike. That would acheive its goal, and is actually the preferred outcome. Reason why is because an initiative of this sort doesn’t handcuff the legislature—the General Court (as the lower house is called) can introduce new legislation to counteract the referendum. Only a constitutional provision ccould prevent the legislature from repealing the referendum (should it pass) and reinstituting the taxes that the voters just repealed. But the referendum forces, if they don’t get a preemptive strike, are also hoping to force the legislature into doing just that and giving their opponents a huge club with which to bash them at election time.
August 14th, 2008 at 9:14 am
Metsies tied for first!
August 14th, 2008 at 9:17 am
Lennar sweetens the commission pot
http://www.bizjournals.com/southflorida/stories/2008/08/11/daily33.html
“There is even more good news for cash-starved brokers: For every new home prospect registered at a Lennar community, the introducing agent will get a $50 gas rebate card.”
August 14th, 2008 at 9:17 am
I honestly believe we have had the schnitzel. Went 100% cash back in May, transfered entire portfolio to a credit union and registered deposits so they are fully covered by NCUA insurance (but who knows). Planning to eat greenbacks in retirement or burn for heat.
Have a friend in Tampa who bought in 2006 for 385K (asking was 415k). Identical house across the street now asking 285k. Glad it can’t happen in NJ.
August 14th, 2008 at 9:18 am
ChiFi:
Daniel Murphy for president!
August 14th, 2008 at 9:20 am
And ChiFi:
In return for the advisor advice for my buddy, here is my gift to you:
New: Depeche Mode “The Singles 86-98″ MP3 Album download for $4
Today only, the Amazon MP3 Store offers downloads of Depeche Mode’s “The Singles 86-98″ for $3.99. That’s the lowest price we could find for this 21-track, DRM-free album, released in 1998. (iTunes charges $9.99.) Amazon MP3 Downloader is required.
August 14th, 2008 at 9:25 am
Stu: cool! I need Only When I Lose Myself…
August 14th, 2008 at 9:26 am
BOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAA
http://www.nypost.com/seven/08142008/photos/sports085.jpg
August 14th, 2008 at 9:33 am
STu 53
the single is on bittorrent for free. and you dont need amazon….
August 14th, 2008 at 9:34 am
OT: [any advice?]
We are looking for a memory foam mattress - just not ready for the “Tempurpedic” price.
I know BJs sells one online and we’ve seen other imitators, too.
Anyone have any experience with price, quality, delivery and service?
Thanks in advance.
sl
August 14th, 2008 at 9:34 am
“bittorrent for free”
How dare you ;)
Limewire anyone?
August 14th, 2008 at 9:39 am
Nom, 48
regarding Mass tax revolt:
I fall into the camp of “why not” . Forcing the state to live with a limited budget is not the end of the world. why is such a horrible thing to force the state to spend less? The majority of state governments , including Mass are grossly bloated.
And the whole issue smacks or hubris, in that if the people wantr the tax gone, the politicians are suggesting that they know better, “trust us the taxes are good for you”
August 14th, 2008 at 9:40 am
stu,
dont touch limewire,
go to the pirate bay (ARRRRRRGH)
www . thepiratebay . com
August 14th, 2008 at 9:41 am
WELCOME, INFLATION
Even if fed raises rates right now, INFLATION will persist - in manufacturing costs inflation just trickling down to consumer - we are about to see 2-3%/month consumer goods inflation.
So far manufacturers were eating the costs and delaying passing them down to consumer - normally from commodity (raw materials) to final consumer product you have 3-4 “steps”, each step has to roll out price increases to increase price of the final product.
In my industry all “steps” are rolling 3-8% price increases every 1-2 month now. It is about to hit consumer.
Have fun - fed rasing rates will do absolutelly nothing for at least 6-7 month.
The price increases machine is rolling.
Funny though - So far there is no wages pressure - jobs are few and people are happy to hold onto them.
So inevitable consumer spending will crush (in real terms). It does seem that american over - consumerism is coming to an end by fundamental market forces..
August 14th, 2008 at 9:41 am
Frostwire is better, lighter and less prone to viruses.
August 14th, 2008 at 9:44 am
6 Clot
Thanks for that article.
August 14th, 2008 at 9:45 am
Laudermats and car washes are good examples of these sorts of businesses. A good business of this sort can pay one in perpetuity. I think many people are going to come to this view.
Did you ever owned either??
I had a friend who owned 2 Laudermats - it is pain in the ass - people constantly wreking washerd/dryers, you have to always clean, every once in a while some idion will try to get cash out of money machine/or change from washer-drier thousands of dollar in damages, and so on.
Remember - people who use Laudermats do not care for washers/driers as it is not theirs.
Utilities costs are actually not a big deal, biggest expense is Liability insurance and rent.
August 14th, 2008 at 9:47 am
I know what I’m doing with Limewire. No shared folders and I never launch anything that looks suspect. I will try your advice on the others though since I hate Java!
August 14th, 2008 at 9:47 am
P.S> Cleaning well-baked in chewing gum from drier’s walls is pain in the a$$.
August 14th, 2008 at 9:50 am
Credit to Crossing Wall Street:
From its peak in 1980, if the price of gold had kept pace with total return of the Wilshire 5000, today gold would be worth over $21,000 an ounce.
August 14th, 2008 at 9:53 am
Cindy
I hope your pension is there for you when you do retire. I think pensions here will disappear and only people smart enough to invest in other retirement options will be able to survive on their savings.
August 14th, 2008 at 10:05 am
Been off on staycation this week but
“This is the beginning of the “liquidate at any cost stage.”
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/greeks-goat-fannie-fnm-liquidation/index/a/18497
August 14th, 2008 at 10:05 am
More about Gold:
$10,000 invested in gold at it’s peak in 1980 would’ve resulted in a return of approximately $10,750 today. The same $10,000 invested in 1980 in the S&P 500 would’ve resulted in a return of approximately $270,000 today.
August 14th, 2008 at 10:11 am
#48
I don’t believe Mass can’t survive without and income tax. NH does it. There are so many worthless state employees in Mass making a ton of money with lifetime pension/benefits.
August 14th, 2008 at 10:13 am
In my humble opinion, all USD dollar holdings will be trashed and deemed worthless. Just think what hyper inflation will do to your 401K when a loaf of bread and a gallon of milk cost $250K.
Rubble collapsed in the 90’s, it can happen russia was a super power debtor nation.
Putin turned them around and now they’re a credito nation and back to their old ways picking on Georgia and setting up concetration camps. In two days they’ll take over Tbilisi.
Putin’s thesis was how Russia can use it’s energy to rise and dominate Europe.
Inflation wipes all debts, and allows you to start over.
August 14th, 2008 at 10:31 am
hey,
can we get a NJ tax revolt going? cutting off the states funds and forcing them to cut the fat is the only real change is going to happen!
For the political guru’s how do you pull that off in NJ, which union leaders and mob boss’ need to be paid off to make this happen?
August 14th, 2008 at 10:40 am
USA could emulate Russia and repudiate all foreign debt.
What a liberating feeling!! Wipe the slate clean!
August 14th, 2008 at 10:41 am
Strange market today.
Economic reports were pretty bleak, yet financials are rallying.
Crazy! As usual.
August 14th, 2008 at 10:42 am
From the August edition of the Journal of Financial Planning.
“While it is true that many Americans are overworked and that you have to treat yourself occasionally, self-gifting is more prominent today because of advertising pitches to buy things ‘becuase you deserve them’. You also deserve to live out a retirement that doesn’t include regular helpings of Alpo.”
Marshall Loeb, MarketWatch, writing about Gregory Karp’s book Living Rich by Spending Smart
August 14th, 2008 at 10:43 am
Re101 back to the ground. Nah laundramat or car wash and most small business are very very competitive. Most also are cash business - you can not trust your peer citizens these days that would be another thread.
Real story: my boss had to shut down his laundramat because wife and daughter rrefuse to work 100 a day there. Conclusion is that it’s easier to make money in corp american so if you have a 9-5 job better hang in there as long as possible.
#33
August 14th, 2008 at 10:48 am
Re: tempurpedic question.
Check out abed.com
Have had one for about the last 5 years and very satisfied.
August 14th, 2008 at 10:56 am
#75 Stu: Bizzare!!
August 14th, 2008 at 10:56 am
Fiddy,
first we need some leaders with real vision, not including vision of lining their own, and their friends pockets at all costs.
While i disagree with the way putin may do things,i can appreciate his vision and drive to create a brighter future for russia. I might prefer having putin as the leader of the US as opposed to Shrub and friends
gary,
gold is a tool not just an investment. at times it can act as an investment and at others a store of value etc. The hard part is understanding the shiny stuff well enough to know how to use it and when. I do not know enough except to know that i do not know enough….. oh well that’s the the first step right?
August 14th, 2008 at 10:56 am
#76
While I understand the feeling that many people have to justify to themselves the long hrs they work, I really do not understand how buying a bunch of crap achieves this. Doing this just chains you down.
August 14th, 2008 at 11:00 am
Stu, 3b,
i think that at this point, the banks and the government are heavily manipulating the markets and that we wont see logical/rational behavior again until they lose control.
heck, less oil was pumped then expected and russia is playing with matches next to a major supply pipeline. yet the oil markets barely even flinch. very unusual indeed.
August 14th, 2008 at 11:02 am
“New Jersey foreclosures up 11 percent”
With all this gloom and doom, foreclosures are up only 11% in NJ. That’s great news.
It looks like NJ RE is weathering this storm just fine despite what read on this blog.
August 14th, 2008 at 11:05 am
Re101: now there is a hack out of this small business thing, which I’ll only share it when I meet and trust you as a friend. Until then good luck with your RE business :)
#77 & #33
Conclusion is that it’s easier to make money in corp american so if you have a 9-5 job better hang in there as long as possible.
August 14th, 2008 at 11:07 am
Frank [83],
I’m perplexed at the still mind-numbing prices that I’m seeing. It appears as though just about everywhere nationwide is getting hammered except Northern NJ. I’m still seeing near peak prices for anything deemed desireable in a decent town. If you’re think I’m full of it, call a realtor and ask them to show you a bunch of houses this weekend.
August 14th, 2008 at 11:07 am
New Jersey foreclosures up 11 percent
Foreclosures in New Jersey rose 11 percent from July 2007 to July 2008, RealtyTrac said today . Nationally, foreclosures were up 55 percent, RealtyTrac said.
One in every 751 households in New Jersey was in some stage of foreclosure in July, compared with one in every 464 nationwide, RealtyTrac said.
I hate to agree with Frank - but based on this data NJ is faring a lot better than USA in general.
So NJ Is Immune - however what it is doing is creating additional insentives for me to move. (and other young people which do not work in NYC).
SO good luck NJ in becoming the first state of Rich and Poor - Castles and Ghettos.
Middle class (75-150K family income) are being pushed out.
I only wonder once most of the state is either foreighner’s enclave, ghetto’s or rich people towns, why would any buisnesses still stay here?
August 14th, 2008 at 11:10 am
75- Stu
“U.S. stocks rose for the first time in three days after regulators loosened restrictions on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to help revive the mortgage industry.”
Hmm…you have lost 80% of your capital because of unwise investments in a highly de-regulated environment. And the answer to recovery - more de-regulation.
I think chinese torture would soon be replaced by Bernanke Torture.
August 14th, 2008 at 11:11 am
#86 Al: Slower in NJ, but it is coming. Clot can tell you how awful things are in his neck of the woods in NJ, and it is moving in closer every day.
August 14th, 2008 at 11:12 am
Al, where are you going to move to, west coast? Just curious and good luck.
In 2007, in the United States of America, the poverty threshold for a single person under 65 was US$10,787; the threshold for a family group of four, including two children, was US$21,027.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poverty_line
#86 AL
Middle class (75-150K family income) are being pushed out.
August 14th, 2008 at 11:13 am
Kettle1:
Market manipulation? I hope so.
August 14th, 2008 at 11:14 am
Re: Bucks County
For those of you who have already moved or are thinking about it, would you get my email from Grim? I have lots of questions re: home pricing, entertainment, taxes, schools, etc.
Thanks!
August 14th, 2008 at 11:14 am
Long post….
Russia and Georgia: All About Oil
http://tinyurl.com/5mhhoy
In commenting on the war in the Caucasus, most American analysts have tended to see it as a throwback to the past: as a continuation of a centuries-old blood feud between Russians and Georgians, or, at best, as part of the unfinished business of the Cold War. Many have spoken of Russia’s desire to erase the national “humiliation” it experienced with the collapse of the Soviet Union 16 years ago, or to restore its historic “sphere of influence” over the lands to its South. But the conflict is more about the future than the past. It stems from an intense geopolitical contest over the flow of Caspian Sea energy to markets in the West.
This struggle commenced during the Clinton administration when the former Soviet republics of the Caspian Sea basin became independent and began seeking Western customers for their oil and natural gas resources. Western oil companies eagerly sought production deals with the governments of the new republics, but faced a critical obstacle in exporting the resulting output. Because the Caspian itself is landlocked, any energy exiting the region has to travel by pipeline – and, at that time, Russia controlled all of the available pipeline capacity. To avoid exclusive reliance on Russian conduits, President Clinton sponsored the construction of an alternative pipeline from Baku in Azerbaijan to Tbilisi in Georgia and then onward to Ceyhan on Turkey’s Mediterranean coast — the BTC pipeline, as it is known today.
The BTC pipeline, which began operation in 2006, passes some of the most unsettled areas of the world, including Chechnya and Georgia’s two breakaway provinces of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. With this in mind, the Clinton and Bush administrations provided Georgia with hundreds of millions of dollars in military aid, making it the leading recipient of U.S. arms and equipment in the former Soviet space. President Bush has also lobbied U.S. allies in Europe to “fast track” Georgia’s application for membership in NATO.
All of this, needless to say, was viewed in Moscow with immense resentment. Not only was the United States helping to create a new security risk on its southern borders, but, more importantly, was frustrating its drive to secure control over the transportation of Caspian energy to Europe. Ever since Vladimir Putin assumed the presidency in 2000, Moscow has sought to use its pivotal role in the supply of oil and natural gas to Western Europe and the former Soviet republics as a source both of financial wealth and political advantage. It mainly relies on Russia’s own energy resources for this purpose, but also seeks to dominate the delivery of oil and gas from the Caspian states to the West.
To further its goals in the Caspian, Putin and his protégé Dmitry Medvedev – until recently the chairman of Gazprom, the Russian state gas monopoly – have enticed (or browbeaten) the leaders of Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan into building new gas pipelines through Russia to Europe. The Europeans, fearful of becoming ever more dependent on Russian-supplied energy, seek to build alternative conduits across the Caspian Sea and along the route of the BTC pipeline in Azerbaijan and Georgia, bypassing Russia altogether.
It is against this backdrop that the fighting in Georgia and South Ossetia has been taking place. The Georgians may only be interested in regaining control over an area they consider part of their national territory. But the Russians are sending a message to the rest of the world that they intend to keep their hands on the Caspian Sea energy spigot, come what may. This doesn’t necessarily mean occupying Georgia outright, but they will certainly retain their strategic positions in Abkhazia and South Ossetia – for all practical purposes, daggers aimed at the BTC jugular. So even if a cease-fire is put into effect, the struggle over energy resources – sometimes hidden and stealthy, sometimes open and violent – will continue long into the future.
August 14th, 2008 at 11:17 am
#85 gary: Well in my Blue Ribbon close to NYC train town, I am seeing most listings sit for months, and all the 500k and 600k listings are moving to 400K’s and 300K’s.
In fact Rich was kind enough to help me with a listing in my town the other day, and the house sold for 430K, and is now listed by a realtor at an asking 359K. Short Sale)
Assuming it sells for 359k that is over a 20% hit in a little more than 2 years, and of course the lower it sells for the bigger the hit.
More importantly the final sales price of that house now becomes the new comp for houses in that particular neighborhood, as the houses all all basically the same.
August 14th, 2008 at 11:17 am
65 Stu, don’t hate java it is a combination of the developers who wrote the app and the poor state of the windows JDK, on Solaris java applications work well provided you have enough memory. Also some large number of websites are powered by java and it is quite good for this use.
August 14th, 2008 at 11:18 am
“Russia and Georgia: All About Oil”
“United States and Iraq: All About Oil”
Isn’t it kind of hypocritical to fault Russia for their actions in Georgia while we continue to occupy Iraq for exactly the same motive?
August 14th, 2008 at 11:18 am
45 mill for newark,,, watch as trenton,passaic,, paterson, camden ,
they will come to the water hole.
August 14th, 2008 at 11:18 am
Trapped in SQL querying class. thank god for wireless internet.
August 14th, 2008 at 11:19 am
and no ,, you can’t have the katz em’s
August 14th, 2008 at 11:20 am
Amazon is great for MP3 downloads. Not restricted files and you dont need the downloader, just click the ‘easy download’ button and it goes right to your desktop. 89 cents per song.
August 14th, 2008 at 11:20 am
“$10,000 invested in gold at it’s peak in 1980 would’ve resulted in a return of approximately $10,750 today. The same $10,000 invested in 1980 in the S&P 500 would’ve resulted in a return of approximately $270,000 today.”
Gary,
In 2000 it cost approx 40 oz of gold to buy 1 dow. Today is costs approx 14.5 oz of gold to buy 1 Dow.
August 14th, 2008 at 11:21 am
OK jcer.
Java in Windows and on the MacOS sucks!
Better? ;)
In my college days, I did some programming on a Sun Solaris workstation that was just slightly smaller in size than my refrigerator. Two years later, the machine was twice as powerful and about the size of a cereal box.
August 14th, 2008 at 11:23 am
Would anyone happen to have a history on MLS # 2811803 in Tenafly, NJ? Maybe an address too? Thanks!
August 14th, 2008 at 11:24 am
Gary (85) and Al (86),
Thanks for the support, I have been saying this all along on this board but some RE agents want-to-be like Clotpoll called me stupid and dumb for insisting that the NJ RE market is just fine.
August 14th, 2008 at 11:25 am
Stu,
“Russia and Georgia: All About Oil”
“United States and Iraq: All About Oil”
Isn’t it kind of hypocritical to fault Russia for their actions in Georgia while we continue to occupy Iraq for exactly the same motive?
both are accurate. I dont see it as “faulting” russia for the actions in georgia, just putting things into context.
We are seeing the beginning of the new phase of a struggle that has been going on for centuries. The struggle to control energy sources. WWII solidified the primary spheres of influence and those spheres are no longer valid, hence the new struggles to redefine spheres of influence.
August 14th, 2008 at 11:25 am
#95 Stu: Like McCanin’s comment yesterday, regarding a new cold war, with Russia, where he said nations in the 21st century do not go around invading another nations, except of course he forgot to add the U.S.
August 14th, 2008 at 11:26 am
OT:
I am not from these parts, so please excuse my ignorance.
While growing up, how do you decide between becoming a Yanks/Mets fan or a Giants/Jets fan?
August 14th, 2008 at 11:26 am
“some RE agents want-to-be like Clotpoll called me stupid and dumb for insisting that the NJ RE market is just fine.”
Frank,
I’m not a RE agent. However, you can toss me into this category.
August 14th, 2008 at 11:29 am
#103 Support? The NJ market is not fine. Foreclosures are up, prices are down and will continue to drop.
I agree that it is not as bad in NJ,as in other areas of the country, but it will get there.
There is no magic potion that will prevent it.
The underlying economic fundamentals for the NY/NJ area are dismal, and that is and will continue to affect housing prices here.
August 14th, 2008 at 11:29 am
“While growing up, how do you decide between becoming a Yanks/Mets fan or a Giants/Jets fan?”
Victorian,
Most cases; parents and/or older siblings. However, it could also be the cheerleaders outfits; Dallas Cowboys. Then again, whomever is on top when you become interested.
August 14th, 2008 at 11:33 am
Every time I check into this blog for some good healthy information (like I used to get) all I get now is how bad everything is. I feel like I want to slit my wrist after reading this thing. You guys bark about all the issues going on in the worst states in the country, NJ isn’t one of them. You bark about how foolish it is to buy a home and how nobody can get a mortgage. In 10 years all the nay sayers and renters are going to wish they bought in ’08 and ’09. In my Monmouth county market area inventory is down and sales are up, listings that are priced right are selling. I think we all agree that market conditions have made the buying and selling process a bit more difficult but please know closings are happing every day and buyers and drawing up contracts every single day and in 10 years from now they will see the equity build.
August 14th, 2008 at 11:35 am
“I am not from these parts, so please excuse my ignorance.
While growing up, how do you decide between becoming a Yanks/Mets fan or a Giants/Jets fan?”
A lot is based on where we all originally lived. I grew up in Merrick, Long Island so I naturally became a Met/Jet fan since both played at Shea which was a bit closer than the Bronx.
Then there are the bandwagon fans who love a winner and choose the Yankees for this.
Giant fans are a strange bunch. They tend to be very blue collar and really appreciate the game. They don’t cheer very loudly though.
Jets fans are more like British soccer fans. They need little excuse to riot and will cheer for their team even when they are 1 and 14. Forget blue collar, the fan base is strikingly similar to the crowd you see in the local OTB. Ever notice on the news that when someone gets arrested, they so frequently are wearing Jets garb?
An easy comparison would be like comparing the Packers to the Raiders.
August 14th, 2008 at 11:37 am
#110 AAG: Things are really bad. I cannot help it if you are in denial.
Where is the upside to buying right now in NJ? What are the economic prospects for NJ going forward? In a word, they are grim.
And just what makes you believe a buyer will see equity built in 10 years? Sounds like the hupe of a realtor to me.
August 14th, 2008 at 11:41 am
#112 Should have said sounds like the hype of a realtor to me.
August 14th, 2008 at 11:41 am
“please know closings are happing every day and buyers and drawing up contracts every single day and in 10 years from now they will see the equity build.”
AAG,
Sure there are buyers. There were also buyers of dot com from the peak to the bottom. There will be buyers all the way to the pits. Nothing new here.
August 14th, 2008 at 11:45 am
Everyone thought Roubini was wrong two years ago as well.
Turns out, he was just about the only one who was right.
I get the feeling that Frank and AAG are Giants and Yankees fans.
August 14th, 2008 at 11:46 am
#112 3b: What goes up comes down its real basic. I agree NJ has some challenges but so does every state and every country in the world and I’m sure you even have some things in your life that could be better, I know I do. The point is all of this is a cycle what is bad then becomes good again. Look at oil up to 150 back down to 115 and as a result we have Boone Pickens and other eyes open and all over the issue as a result. If you look for bad you will find it. If you look for good you will find that too.
August 14th, 2008 at 11:47 am
AAG, while I agree this site is gloomy it should be known that while NJ is faring much better than the rest of the country we are still hurting and as long a home prices are out of line with incomes there is a potential for a drop, even now as we speak home prices can be higher because of low interest rates. As interest rates rise which they will as more banks get out of residential home lending and the GSE’s encounter more difficulties It would not surprise me to see 8% mortgages again. This will put pressure on prices, high NJ property taxes will put pressure on prices, higher unemployment and reduced pool of qualified buyers will again put pressure on home prices. Why would reversing the very things that caused the upswing in prices not cause the inverse to happen? The process will be more gradual but prices will and are dropping it may very well take until 2010 to hit bottom but even when prices are fall .5-2% per month which seems small, yoy is like 20%-30%. NJ has a boatload of problems that will eventually catch up with it. so while people on this board think the sky is falling it probably isn’t but I do tend to agree tough times are ahead and many/most people will need to tighten their belts, reduce spending etc. If homes weren’t selling at all it would be a house apocalypse or Detroit but that doesn’t change the fact that sales are slow and there is a big potential to lose money on a purchase.
August 14th, 2008 at 11:47 am
#110
I agree - there is a lot of doom and gloom on this board, but I think it’s a sign of the times. You’ve got many folks on here contributing ideas / perspectives from various backgrounds, where the overall consensus is that it’s a bear market. You have to take that into consideration. They’ve been spot on for the year that I’ve been monitoring the board.
These aren’t the happy 1950’s - you’ve got crappy politicians, poor fiscal management, wars, real inflation, and unhappy Mets/Jets fans leading to a dismal outlook overall. There is no doubt that things will turn around, as they always do, it just may take a little time.
August 14th, 2008 at 11:48 am
Well said jcer.
August 14th, 2008 at 11:48 am
Message from Sallie Mae I received today:
“Loans helped pay for college. Now shopping can help you pay down the loans.”
Makes perfect sense to me.
August 14th, 2008 at 11:49 am
Fact:
“New Jersey foreclosures up 11 percent”
Characterization:
“That’s great news. It looks like NJ RE is weathering this storm just fine despite what read on this blog.”
Compulsive lurker here who rarely has anything intelligent to add, except to say that some characterizations are sufficiently tiring to warranet a little groaning.
How one characterize a fact, intelligent person can differ. A debate about whether a 11% foreclosure increase is a good thing or bad thing seems fundamentally pointless. A debate about what one should expect based on the 11% foreclosure increase fact is more fruitful, and that I leave to the experts to whom I so benefit from in the last 3 years.
I only note that, the definition of “immune” has gone from “no foreclosure here” to “foreclosure holding steady” to “foreclosure only going up 11%” in the time span.
That’s some immunity.
August 14th, 2008 at 11:51 am
The only problem is that you can’t pass your 9-5 along to your kids if you die. You can’t sell your 9-5 either. As a matter of fact, your 9-5 is under threat by outsourcing,right-sizing and etc.
I’ve always prefered to deploy my talents to benefit me directly. I prefer to either rise or fall on that basis. To be sure, it’s risky but if you choose the right sort of small business and have the management skills to run it, the rewards can great.
Laundermats, while expensive to start, are solid businesses in my view particularly if you can combine them with some other business like a dry cleaners. Of course, it ain’t “glamorous”, but that’s not required to make money. Child care is a business that’s a pain in the azz, but I don’t know of any child care provider suffering other than from overwork. Welfare to work requirements leave some of these guys in a situation where the state is actually paying the provider, but again one does not to go that route, there’s enough money to be made just dealing with regular working folks. I know a guy who’s tied to the “green revolution” and sells an organic product that averages $ 3,000-5,000 a pop and has people lining up to buy the product. The economic slowdown has not affected him whatsoever.
I just think the idea of investing in most stuff being touted nowadays, whether it’s gold, energy stocks and etc is based on the shaky premise that someone else will come along and pay more than what you paid. That model is under threat and I’m not willing to risk my retirement on it. I look at investing in more basic terms; if I put my money in, I want near-term reasonably predictable cash return. There are few things that provide that other than a well run and positioned small business anchored to everyday wants and needs.
NJl$rd Says:
August 14th, 2008 at 11:05 am
Re101: now there is a hack out of this small business thing, which I’ll only share it when I meet and trust you as a friend. Until then good luck with your RE business :)
#77 & #33
Conclusion is that it’s easier to make money in corp american so if you have a 9-5 job better hang in there as long as possible.
August 14th, 2008 at 11:52 am
BC Bob,
The gold thing: I understand your point, but I just don’t see it as an investment. An insurance policy, perhaps, but not a long term investment.
August 14th, 2008 at 11:53 am
110 Why buy when you can rent for half of a mortgage and avoid this state’s criminal level of property taxes? Even net of deductions renting is far less expensive and you avoid paying for up keep.
The end of easy lending and exotic negative am mortgages will eventually cause prices to fall to levels that represent people’s ability to pay. You can’t have 500k average prices in northern jersey on 65k average income forever.
August 14th, 2008 at 11:53 am
“I get the feeling that Frank and AAG are Giants and Yankees fans.”
Stu,
Me also.
August 14th, 2008 at 11:55 am
Duckweed, 11% is good vs. the National average but I would hardly characterize it as “Good News”, it is like saying bob lost both legs and I only lost one that is good news, well it is compared to bob but the compared to the guy who didn’t lose any extremities I am screwed. It really means there will be downward pressure on real estate prices and tighter lending but not nearly as much as say Florida or Nevada, where resale properties are already at 2003 pricing and foreclosures are at 2001 pricing, they are almost at the end of the tunnel.
August 14th, 2008 at 11:55 am
Yes this can be a gloomy board,
but i dont think anyone here is suggesting the end of the world. the debate is whether the storm we are starting to pass though is a category 1, 2, 3, or 4.
I think cat 3 or 4, but there are a number of opinions here so take your pick.
remember the bad things dont go away just because you ignore them. understanding and preparation are the best response to unfavorable conditions.
August 14th, 2008 at 11:55 am
115- Stu
“I get the feeling that Frank and AAG are Giants and Yankees fans.”
Hey!! I am a Giants and Yankees fan :). My reason were for becoming a Yankee fan - Mariano Rivera.
Giants - As BC said, the Jets sucked more than them when I got interested.
And - The sky is falling!!
August 14th, 2008 at 11:56 am
3b,
You’re seeing listings drop from the 600K range to 400K range? Do you have any MLS#s in mind? Just asking because maybe I’m only getting what the realtors want me to see. Thx.
August 14th, 2008 at 11:58 am
toshiro_mifune Says:
August 14th, 2008 at 8:59 am
#33 - Laundromats and car washes are good examples of these sorts of businesses.
I think the recent utility costs for both of these (esp. the laundromats) may be seriously eating into any profits.
I gotta believe that those costs can be passed on without any diminution
in the demand for the services.
August 14th, 2008 at 11:58 am
“Look at oil up to 150 back down to 115 and as a result we have Boone Pickens and other eyes open and all over the issue as a result. If you look for bad you will find it. If you look for good you will find that too.”
AAG,
You are talking about a product that is in demand worlwide, while supplies are dwindling.
The RE bubble was a charade, fueled by senseless lending and greed/fear. That said, if a product, in demand, can fall 30% how far can an asset fall which is overpriced/overbought, where the underlying fundamentals do not support it in any way, shape or form?
August 14th, 2008 at 12:00 pm
re:#106 “While growing up, how do you decide between becoming a Yanks/Mets fan or a Giants/Jets fan?”
I am a Yanks and Giants fan while my younger brother is a Mets and Jets fan. The main difference between us is he was dropped several times on his head as an infant.
August 14th, 2008 at 12:01 pm
Victorian,
Come to a Jet game some time. If the game blows, the antics of the drunks can fill the void left on the field.
The joy of being a Met fan is falling for the “Gotta Believe thang,” and then watching them blow it almost every time in the 23rd hour.
August 14th, 2008 at 12:02 pm
129 Gary: Thats so 90’s real estate. you can get all the listing information you want it’s right in front of you including the address. If your agent is a gatekeeper change your agent.
August 14th, 2008 at 12:02 pm
Sean (132),
You typified the point I was trying to make earlier perfectly.
August 14th, 2008 at 12:03 pm
Stu,
I enjoy Jet games. However, I dislike some drunk taking a piss on my foot or blowing cookies on me. Otherwise, it’s entertaining.
August 14th, 2008 at 12:04 pm
Building equity in Monmouth County?
MLS # 20832263- W Park Ave. Ocean Township
2 miles to the beach
Bought 9/21/06- $660,000
Mortgage- $528,000
Relisted today after 5 reductions- $499,000
August 14th, 2008 at 12:05 pm
Here is the link to Brigadoon foreclosure filings since Aug 2007. It has the detail address of every single property for your review :)
http://www.net50.com/Brigadoon_Foreclosures.xls
August 14th, 2008 at 12:05 pm
AAG,
My point is, maybe I’m missing something because those expected discounts are not showing up wherever I look. I’m seeing 600K plus and 14K in property taxes for blah houses.
August 14th, 2008 at 12:07 pm
BC Bob,
I enjoy Jet games. However, I dislike some drunk taking a piss on my foot or blowing cookies on me. Otherwise, it’s entertaining.
Blasphemy!! :)
August 14th, 2008 at 12:07 pm
#130 - I think you’re on slightly firmer ground w/ re: to the laundromat, but at a certain price point the car wash is untenable to a client. They can do it themselves.
I’m also not too sure on the elasticity of laundromat pricing. The demographic may not be able to bear that passed on cost too easily.
August 14th, 2008 at 12:10 pm
I guess I’m right on that re101 is not a retard after all. Haha…
#122 reinvestor
August 14th, 2008 at 12:11 pm
A question for Kettle … or any other reader of Jane’s or Soldier of Fortune:
What state is Russia’s military in these days? Are the forces moving into Georgia anything like the ill-equipped, untrained, and poorly paid conscripts sent to Chechnya who sold their AKs to the Chechens for cigarette and vodka money? Or have the Russians used their oil wealth to build up a competent fighting force? One article I read interpreted a Soviet … I mean, Russian commander’s remarks to mean that the Georgians put up much more resistance than expected and inflicted some damage on the Russian military. Russia may have won this round, but I see the former Soviet Republics modernizing their forces with US help to make the price of futher adventures quite costly.
August 14th, 2008 at 12:14 pm
#33 reinvestor x
Am I on meds or are you? You are actually making sense.
August 14th, 2008 at 12:18 pm
If given a choice, do you prefer to live in Russia my comrade friend?
#72 nedi Says:
Putin turned them around and now they’re a credito nation and back to their old ways picking on Georgia and setting up concetration camps. In two days they’ll take over Tbilisi.
August 14th, 2008 at 12:19 pm
Gary,
I am seeing some price movement in my town toward the down side (nice town). Well priced houses are still going for between 91-100% of asking (asking at the time and not original asking) with an average of around 96%. A house that would have been $750 at the tail end of ‘06 will go for $675 on a good day now. The properties that I am seeing that are sitting and getting killed are the ones that are in less than desirable locations (busy street, next to apartments, etc.). These I still see being priced at or just below similar homes in much better locations. These are the homes that just sit and sit and sit and chase the market down month after month. I am as much doom and gloom as the next guy on this board but I have seen some really surprising sales int he past two months. A couple of spec homes in not exactly the best parts of town have gone for well over a million on small plots of land (not quite McMansion but close). Yes they have the granite and 4 bedroom 2/3 baths but come on, I woudl have guessed the market would not be able to support such homes at this time. I am amazed as anyone that these homes sold in such a short time for such a high price. In the end, the good towns are based off a premium from the so-so towns, which are based off a premium from the not so good towns. As one moves the rest move in sync but there is definitely a lag here and there. I think for my town at least we are in a lag period before things get much tighter this fall/winter. Just my 2 cents.
August 14th, 2008 at 12:20 pm
gary
there are multiple factors that are slowing the price drop in NJ. First the 2 major employment industries in the state are leaving ( pharma and fianance). without the jobs or the job sevurity who is going to buy the house at the inflated price?
Secondly, as people are hurting financially and have adopted gloomy outlooks, who is willing to pay the property taxes? I know of 2 different people who can afford the purchase price of the homes they have looked at ( with a traditional 20% down mortgage) but havent bought because they refuse to take the hit on taxes which everyone knows is going to be going up.
Additionally. most sellers cannot significantly lower their prices as they are already underwater. and the banks may or may not approve the short sell even if the “owners” want to do it.
We are set up to fall off a cliff. the above factors have us deadlocked, but once the logjam is broken we are going to see a torrent of inventory rush to the bottom
August 14th, 2008 at 12:21 pm
Another example of equity building in Monmouth County;
http://jerseyshore.craigslist.org/rfs/779202919.html
August 14th, 2008 at 12:22 pm
#106 Victoria,
I think fan bases also have to do a bit with geography. The Mets and Jets both used to play at Shea. I think the Giants also used to play at Yankee stadium before they moved to the Meadowlands.
August 14th, 2008 at 12:23 pm
More reductions;
http://jerseyshore.craigslist.org/rfs/761310855.html
August 14th, 2008 at 12:24 pm
# 33
“For me, the best retirement investment I can make is in a small business that sells something anchored to the everyday wants and needs of people (i.e. the real economy); preferably something passive that does not require a lot of active management while generating cash flow every day. ”
Time to invest in brothels in Nevada?
August 14th, 2008 at 12:28 pm
Jmac 143,
the russian military is in a definite state of disrepair. Generally speaking conditions amongst the armed forces are harsh as they have been left to fend for themselves in a manner.
However this does not mean that they are weak or a force to be disregarded. Russia is spending a significant amount of money on building their military might but the are still no where near their peak effectiveness that existed during the cold war.
parts of the russian military are still very much like the forces sen into Chechnya.
Also consider that there were american and Israeli advisers on the ground during the fighting and would have provided valuable tactical expertise. we have been training the georgian military since clinton had the BTC pipeline that runs through georgia built. We would have trained the georgian on tactics specifically tailored to the russian style of fighting. its a reasonable guess that the georgians inflicted some real damage.
SAS probably has better insight then me on this.
August 14th, 2008 at 12:29 pm
[73] Kettle,
No prospects for a NJ tax revolt. Mass, unlike NJ, is a fairly homogeneous state meaning that the vast majority of residents share the same values and interests. Not so in NJ.
Second, a smaller percentage of Bay Staters are sucking at the public breast for welfare, jobs, and other “emoluments.” NJ is one of the worst states in that regard.
Finally, Mass. residents were quicker to hold the line on taxes and spending, and on gov. corruption. Unlike NJ, it is not a job qualification to be a corrupt ward heeler. Used to be but not for many decades now. Notwithstanding Skep’s comment, Mass. isn’t nearly as bloated as NJ, nor do they have the level of corruption and waste that NJ does, and, finally, they aren’t in nearly as bad a predicament on state and muni debt or unfunded liabilities.
IMHO, it is far more likely that the state goes bankrupt first.
August 14th, 2008 at 12:29 pm
#148 BC Bob,
I never thought i would live long enough to see “gorgeous” and “Hazlet” in the same sentence.
I think Hazlet is turning into Staten Island. The fist pumpers are crossing the bridge and buying at one of the first towns they see in NJ.
August 14th, 2008 at 12:30 pm
Utility costs for car washes are not as large as you might think (assuming you’re referring to H2O). Most places recycle their water. I used to work in the accounting department for a Water Utility company on Long Island and was amazed on how low water bills were for car washes. Although, I guess the electric to run the pumps ain’t cheap.
August 14th, 2008 at 12:30 pm
#116 AAG: If you look for good you will find that too.
That is all nice rhetoric, but that is all it is. You have not addressed anything I said.
As far equity. Well how is this. I bought at the height in 1987 at the height and sold in 1997 10 TEN YEARS LATER for $2500 less than I paid for it!!!! So, so much for equity in 10 years.
And at that time NJ and the country as a whole was in far superior shape than it is today. Oh and you really,really had to qualify for a mtg back than.
So, you are right in that I did learn a lesson, in that do not believe the hype, because some of the same hype that fueled this now collapsed housing bubble, fueled the last one.
Oh and we did not cry and ask for a bail out. We and many others stayed and dealt with it. In our case we took the 10 years and paid off the mtg.
August 14th, 2008 at 12:31 pm
[151]
That was what being a small landlord was supposed to be. But between still too high land and building costs, and severe regulation, it is not feasible unless you rent “under the table” as so many small landlords do.
August 14th, 2008 at 12:32 pm
J #78,
Thanks!
sl
August 14th, 2008 at 12:32 pm
Frank (103)-
How many lifetime transaction sides (sales) do you have?
I’m working on my 2nd 500. I think that takes me out of the realm of “wannabe”.
August 14th, 2008 at 12:34 pm
#124 Trader: Agreed. That has nothing to do with so called doom and gloom on this site. It is a fact.
August 14th, 2008 at 12:34 pm
# 66
“Cleaning well-baked in chewing gum from drier’s walls is pain in the a$$”
Al,
How else is one supposed to save gum, in these hard times? Sticking it to the bedpoast is so 6th grade. Drying it out for later use is far better.
August 14th, 2008 at 12:35 pm
Re 138 - Brigadoon foreclosures.
I rented on Myrtle ave until recently, and 223 Myrtle has probably $100k in cars in the driveway. The house is a duplex, and there is no way it’s worth $454.
August 14th, 2008 at 12:35 pm
Jmac,
the russians also used irregulars, cossacks and other ethnic groups that have traditional feuds with the georgians. Irregular forces can be much harder to fight and to control as they tend to be very decentralized, almost a guerrilla force.
August 14th, 2008 at 12:36 pm
#129 gary: I will take a look.
August 14th, 2008 at 12:36 pm
Clotpoll,
Let’s talk $ volume. My is in billions, what’s yours?
August 14th, 2008 at 12:37 pm
US shoppers on strike?
The US government has spent billions of dollars on an economic stimulus plan to help keep the economy out of recession but figures are expected to show the effects of the spending are wearing off.
As Karen Nye reports from Short Hills, New Jersey, shoppers are being much more cautious.
…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7557800.stm
August 14th, 2008 at 12:47 pm
#166
Maybe next stimulus round the gubermint can send out debit cards that can only be used for purchases of itmes over $100. Flat screen TVs and Wiis for everyone!
August 14th, 2008 at 12:50 pm
You wonder why Starbuck’s can’t make it on Wall Street?
“Bankers and traders no longer needed on Wall Street increasingly are being given another option – move overseas.”
“Big investment banks are moving both key executives and some of their most junior employees to Asia, the Middle East, Europe and Latin America, the New York Times reports. While such transfers in part reflect cost-cutting pressures, banks also are fortifying their businesses beyond New York and London in order to take advantage of rising growth. Some bankers are getting the opportunities they’ve dreamed of, while banks can maintain key employees they might otherwise have laid off.”
http://news.efinancialcareers.co.uk/newsandviews_item/newsItemId-14716
August 14th, 2008 at 12:53 pm
167- Bairen
I was wondering - how long can a Wii keep you occupied/interested once the novelty wears off?
The game play is obviously not great.
August 14th, 2008 at 12:58 pm
The prevailing mindset of this board does seem to be doom and gloom, but with respect to the real estate situation, I am getting very optimistic at this point. Prices are not crashing overnight, but they are steadily heading down. The best houses are selling for 10% off peak prices and the less than ideal houses aren’t selling much at all, which suggests to me (and to realtors I’ve spoken with) that an actual winning bid for these right now would be 20-25% off peak. Transaction volume is not rebounding at all based on what I see. Loans are harder to get, which takes out many marginal buyers (but not the well qualified). The employment picture in the area will remain dicey for some time, further reducing the buyer pool. All in all, I am more optimistic than I have ever been since I began visiting this site that we will end up 20-30% off peak prices for top houses and significantly more for flawed houses. We are heading back toward traditional measures of affordability for the real estate in this area, which makes sense because this is the only sustainable pricing in the long run.
August 14th, 2008 at 1:01 pm
kettle 163: “the russians also used irregulars, cossacks and other ethnic groups”
These paramilitary groups did most of the dirty work, like ethnic cleansing and destroying Georgian villages (but Russian troops robbed some foreign journalists at gunpoint in Gori, so it is fair to assume they did plenty of dirty work themselves, too).
“consider that there were american and Israeli advisers on the ground during the fighting and would have provided valuable tactical expertise.”
The 130 US advisers and some Israelis did not participate in this war in anyway.
Anyway, Georgians indeed shot down a few Russian fighter jets (using Russian missiles bought from Ukraine) which is quite interesting.
August 14th, 2008 at 1:05 pm
“Let’s talk $ volume. My is in billions, what’s yours?”
Frank,
Pathological? Habitual?
August 14th, 2008 at 1:06 pm
“All in all, I am more optimistic than I have ever been since I began visiting this site that we will end up 20-30% off peak prices for top houses and significantly more for flawed houses.”
Skeptic[170],
Glad to have you aboard.
August 14th, 2008 at 1:06 pm
Didnt Frank say earlier that he was not a Realtor? - That he had 3 job offers in an industry related to gas stations?
August 14th, 2008 at 1:08 pm
Victorian [174],
He also was being wined and dined by multiple hedge funds and had numerous mortgage companies hot on his trail.
August 14th, 2008 at 1:08 pm
#110 AAG:
Spoken like a true Realtor. Just click that SupraKey three times and think of Kansas.
Following Glinda’s instructions,Dorothy closes her eyes and clicks the heels of her red slippers together three times,repeating “There’s no place like home.” She opens her eyes moments later, startled, to find Auntie Em, Uncle Henry, Professor Marvel, Hunk, Zeke, and Hickory standing beside her bed, smiling. Trying to comfort her, Auntie Em coos, “There, there, lie quiet now. You just had a bad dream.” “No,” Dorothy insists, “it wasn’t a dream – it was a place.”
August 14th, 2008 at 1:09 pm
# 173,
Over what period? I ask only because when one adds to those declines the effect of inflation, we may be closer to 50% in real dollars.
August 14th, 2008 at 1:09 pm
Kettle, jmac:
“U.S. analysts are beginning to address the question of why the Israeli Air Force was able to penetrate Syria’s Russian-made air defenses, while the Russian Air Force was not able to finesse Georgia’s Russian-made air defenses. That Russian-built and designed air defenses are exploitable was shown in the Israeli Air Force’s total shutdown of Syrian air defenses prior to bombing a suspected nuclear site last year (Aerospace DAILY, May 2).
But Russia apparently didn’t have or didn’t use the digital keys to unlock the Georgians’ network. There are indications from U.S. analysts that the relative simplicity – meaning far less meaning far less networking – of the Georgian air defenses made it tougher to knock out the system all at once.”
U.S. Ponders Georgian Air Defenses
August 14th, 2008 at 1:13 pm
# 178
Re Georgia and Russia,
Don’t discount the quality or lack thereof of the IRCM systems on the Russian aircraft vs. two-color or imaging seekers on missiles that may have been obtained from Ukrain. Even a good number of our mil-air assets cannot deal with these threats.
August 14th, 2008 at 1:17 pm
“BEIJING (AP) The U.S. Olympic team stopped the pick-and-rolls - and just about everything else Greece tried.”
“These Americans, who looked so lost two years ago in the World Championship, appear to have found their Olympic defensive way.”
“Batting away balls or swatting shots on seemingly every possession late in the second quarter, the Americans broke open a close game and went on to a 92-69 victory Thursday night to clinch a spot in the medal round.”
http://www.nbcolympics.com/basketball/news/newsid=213748.html?GT1=39003
August 14th, 2008 at 1:25 pm
We may not be able to keep an industrial base but, by golly, we can still shoot hoops with the best of ‘em.
August 14th, 2008 at 1:30 pm
nedi
“Inflation wipes all debts, and allows you to start over.”
That only works if you’ve stopped running deficits. Unfortunately for us, the US has been increasing them.
August 14th, 2008 at 1:32 pm
91 lostinny
Are you moving to bucks?
August 14th, 2008 at 1:33 pm
shore [181],
Here’s a high % shot;
http://sports.espn.go.com/oly/summer08/basketball/columns/story?columnist=sheridan_chris&page=USA-Greece-080814
August 14th, 2008 at 1:35 pm
top 10 posters today:
21 Stu
21 BC Bob
12 kettle1
12 3b
8 Clotpoll
6 Victorian
6 grim
6 gary
5 toshiro_mifune
5 Shore Guy
August 14th, 2008 at 1:49 pm
Gas stations? You’re right when taking Exxon, Petrobas or Citibank.
August 14th, 2008 at 1:49 pm
I would say this site is more about “realists” than “gloom-and-doomers”. For one, I was skeptical when I first got here, being that I’m a rose colored glasses type of guy, but the more the predictions here came true, the more I became a convert. In fact, when I turn up my computer speakers, very faintly past the static, I can almost hear the following repeating itself (in the voice of RedRum) “RE prices will fall, RE prices will fall”.
August 14th, 2008 at 1:50 pm
We don’t even have to watch the ticker. Bi is here, the markets must be up today.
August 14th, 2008 at 1:51 pm
186-Frank. I think it was more along the lines of a 7Eleven.
August 14th, 2008 at 1:52 pm
NPR reports described Russia’s military setting up recruiting stations in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, taking advantage of historic grudges. Supposedly the looting in Gori is being done by South Ossetian paramilitaries with Russian “peacekeepers” playing dumb nearby.
August 14th, 2008 at 1:55 pm
I think Mr. O would be a good counterparty against Dmitry Medvedev. The question is who is our Putin behind him?
August 14th, 2008 at 1:56 pm
#190: Any chance that Georgia ever had of holding on to So. Ossetia and Abhazia is finished.
August 14th, 2008 at 1:57 pm
192#, 3b sounds like a former commy.
August 14th, 2008 at 1:59 pm
188, vic, acctually yesterday was my good day. my defensive portfolio doesn’t do too well today.
> We don’t even have to watch the ticker. Bi is here, the markets must be up today.
August 14th, 2008 at 2:04 pm
#193 bi: Just a realist bi:. You are typical though, when you cannot accept something, your hurl insults.
A