Mon 25 Aug 2008
From the WSJ:
Home-Price Watchers Hope Drop Slows
By MAYA JACKSON RANDALL
August 25, 2008; Page A2
This week’s housing-market data won’t erase the souring situation surrounding Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, but there still might be a way to make lemonade.
Start with the S&P/Case-Shiller home-price-index report due out Tuesday. It will likely show continued price declines across the country as the housing slump drags on. Those are the lemons. To sweeten that up, look to the rate of price declines in hard-hit markets such as those in California and Florida. If the rate of declines slows, as some experts expect, there is your sugar.
The data are likely to be “negative pretty much across the board” and home prices are unlikely to bottom out until 2009 or 2010, said Mark Vitner, a Wachovia senior economist. But Mr. Vitner expects the rate of decline in home prices to begin to moderate “at some point in the second half of the year.” That could signal the worst is behind us, though Mr. Vitner says he thinks the market could easily sit at the bottom for at least a year.
At the same time, it would be souring if the rate of declines accelerates. All eyes are already on Fannie and Freddie, and data showing home prices plummeting more than expected wouldn’t help the mortgage giants.
“The more housing prices fall, the more foreclosures we get and the more each one of those costs Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac,” says University of Maryland business professor Peter Morici.
The week is chockablock with housing data. Existing-home-sales data, released Monday, will be interesting to watch. While economists expect a slight uptick in sales, it could be bittersweet — the result of troubled banks having to sell foreclosed homes at a deep discount. “I think the story there is simply that you have a lot of foreclosures and banks are pricing the homes so they sell,” said Global Insight U.S. Economist Patrick Newport.
On Tuesday, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight will release its monthly home-price data through June. Additionally, the Commerce Department Tuesday releases data on July sales of new homes. Last month’s decline in sales was the fifth in six months.
From Bloomberg:
Home Sales Probably Held Near Decade Low: U.S. Economy Preview
Home sales in the U.S. probably teetered near a 10-year low, property values dropped and consumer spending cooled, signaling the economy has taken another turn for the worse, reports this week may show.
A total of 5.435 million new and existing homes were purchased in July at an annual pace, according to the median estimate of economists polled by Bloomberg News. June’s 5.39 million rate was the weakest since at least 1999. Spending probably rose 0.3 percent in July, half the prior month’s gain.
The real-estate recession will persist into next year as stricter lending rules and higher borrowing costs shackle demand. At the same time, equity is disappearing as home prices fall, and wages aren’t keeping up with inflation, depriving Americans of the means to maintain spending, the biggest part of the economy.
“The economy is going down a shaky path,” said Maxwell Clarke, chief U.S. economist at IDEAGlobal Inc. in New York. “We’re not going to see a rebound in housing anytime soon. Consumers are living hand to mouth, and the outlook for spending is very weak.”
August 25th, 2008 at 6:55 am
From the Pocono Record:
Bus fare pushing commuters over edge
The gas price is finally going down, so why is Martz still increasing the price for traveling to New York city?
The bus fare was recently increased to $500 for one month’s commuter ride. There should be other bus companies. Why does Martz have a virtual monopoly in the Poconos? Can anything be done about the bus fare and support for the residents?
The residents and commuters of northeast Pennsylvania are hurting. We are not able to afford the rising cost of the bus fare to New York on a daily basis.
Jobs are not readily available in this area, nor is the salary competitive. Many of us have to remain in New York during the week and only go home on weekends. This arrangement affects the household. There is usually no one to supervise the children. We are concerned for the children. What about their homework, safety and guidance?
Does no one care about the residents in the area? We are hurting. We need help. A couple working in New York will have to pay $1,000 per month for bus fare only. Is this realistic? Traveling to other states, such as New Jersey and Delaware, the cost is much less for one month’s traveling for the same distance or more.
August 25th, 2008 at 6:57 am
From the Star Ledger:
On the eve of foreclosure, a mother finds help in the system
Marisol Perez already had stopped answering her phone, knowing it would be just another hectoring creditor.
Then her hair started falling out from the stress of working two jobs but still not being able to cover her monthly mortgage payment.
Then she got the letter that jabbed her in the gut: A lawyer’s office informed her it was foreclosing on her house.
“That’s when it hit me: I’m going to be homeless with three kids,” said Perez, an X-ray technician who lives in Dover.
It’s the kind of realization that has been hitting more families around New Jersey, where foreclosures are up 140 percent over last year, according to the latest data from RealtyTrac, a California firm that monitors foreclosures nationwide.
But there’s another side to that story, one that’s offering encouragement to distressed homeowners: Loan modifications also appear to be surging.
…
When Perez and her fiancé bought in Dover two years ago, foreclosure was the furthest thing from their minds. They put down $4,000 on a $245,000 home and took out two fixed-rate loans, one at 7 percent interest, the other at 9 percent.
The payments were doable. Then Perez said she and her fiancé broke up, he insisting she buy out his portion of the house. Perez refinanced, switching to a subprime loan with an interest rate of 10 percent and monthly payments of more than $2,500.
…
Under the new terms, the interest rate had been slashed in half, to 5 percent. The loan term was switched from 30 years to 40. The new payment was $1,768 a month — still a squeeze, but doable.
“These things don’t always work out this well. We’re thrilled when it does,” said Marshall.
August 25th, 2008 at 7:00 am
From the Home News Tribune:
Drug industry jobs disappearing in N.J.
One of several people at the Dover unemployment office last week from the pharmaceutical industry, David Stern worked for a small company when layoffs hit a few months ago and a manager called him into an office.
“You get that sinking feeling,” Stern, 56, of Rockaway, said.
…
Some pharmaceutical and health care companies with ties to Morris County, such as Pfizer, Novartis and Wyeth, are among those that have announced planned work force reductions. It remains unclear how much impact will be felt in Morris County. But, based on notices sent to the state this year, Morris will lose hundreds of pharmaceutical and health care product jobs over the next few months.
Johnson & Johnson officials informed the state in a letter last month that its manufacturing plant on Jefferson Road in Parsippany, which employs 296 people and makes Ben-Gay among other products, will be closed before the end of the year. The workers were told about the closing more than a year ago, said Chris Clark, a company spokesman.
The company purchased that plant a little more than a year ago as part of a larger acquisition of Pfizer’s consumer products division, including four buildings in Morris Plains. One of those buildings never was completed and another remains vacant. Johnson & Johnson laid off about 350 workers there a year ago.
Abbott Laboratories has announced plans to close a manufacturing plant in Whippany where 134 people work by the end of this year. It also will close a Parsippany research facility with 83 employees by early next year.
August 25th, 2008 at 7:02 am
This guy Quinn has attacked me in this article by repeating a post I made almost verbatim. He is not going to get away with calling me a “Great Denier” when in fact I support this damn country. He made a big mistake in going after me and he’s gonna regret that:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/92303-looming-financial-catastrophe-a-real-inconvenient-truth#comment-238074
The next obstacle is what I call the Great Deniers. They deny that there are any problems in America. They ignore the hard facts and spout rhetoric like: “We are the greatest country in the history of the world; There is nothing that’s going to occur to our economy except a continuance of the great economic success our great nation has always enjoyed; The sun is not setting on our great nation, it is rising!; It is morning in America.” It is difficult to have a logical discussion with these shills. They are disciples of the Ben Stein School of ignoring facts and figures. They are cheerleaders for America, when what we need are wide eyed realists. Many of these people have secure well paying comfortable positions in our society and fear a change in the status quo.
Cindy Says:
August 24th, 2008 at 1:21 pm
James Quinn has another article @Seeking Alpha - (I like this guy.) Looming Financial Catastrophe: A Real Inconvient Truth
August 25th, 2008 at 7:11 am
From Bloomberg:
Libor Signals Tighter Credit as Banks Balk at Lending
Most of the bond strategists and salesmen that Resolution Investment Management Ltd.’s Stuart Thomson talked to last August expected the credit crunch to be long over by now. Instead, money markets show there’s no end in sight, and it may even worsen.
“It’s like an ongoing nightmare and no one is sure when we’re going to wake up,” said Thomson, a money manager in Glasgow at Resolution, which oversees $46 billion in bonds. “Things are going to get worse before they get better.”
In a replay of the last four months of 2007, interest-rate derivatives imply that banks are becoming more hesitant to lend on speculation credit losses will increase as the global economic slowdown deepens. Binit Patel, an economist in London at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., said in an Aug. 21 report that nations accounting for half of the world’s economy face a recession.
…
“These problems going into year-end are likely to be worse this time round because of the amount banks have to refinance in December,” Thomson said, citing a figure of $88 billion. “The suspicion is that banks are still hiding losses. The banking system relies on trust and at the minute there quite simply isn’t any.”
August 25th, 2008 at 7:15 am
From the IHT:
U.S. economy depending on housing market
The willingness and ability of Americans to come back into the housing market over the next few months will determine whether the U.S. economy experiences a mild downturn or the deepest recession in 30 years.
Many economists say that home prices have another 10 percent to fall to bring them into balance with rents and incomes. A fall of that magnitude would elicit a huge sigh of relief from Wall Street and Washington.
But it would not take much - a further clampdown by private lenders or a meltdown at the mortgage finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac - to push home prices down much more severely, perhaps more than 20 percent.
“That’s how you could quickly get into this darker scenario,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist with Moody’s Economy.com.
If banks tighten lending standards further, denying loans to borrowers with good credit histories, affordability will not be enough to keep people buying homes. And a sharper housing bust would leave deep scars in consumer sentiment, which would likely lead to a deep recession.
Analysts at Credit Suisse estimate that the S&P Case-Shiller index of house prices in 20 major cities must fall by another 14 percent for houses to become affordable again, assuming the typical mortgage rate stays around 6.32 percent. The index was down 15.8 percent from a year earlier in May.
August 25th, 2008 at 7:20 am
From the NY Journal News:
More overdue loans hit Lower Hudson Valley banks
Past-due and nonperforming loans are up at most of the banks headquartered in the Lower Hudson Valley, a reflection of a slowing economy and more trouble in the residential mortgage market.
Six of the nine banks that are based regionally saw troubled loans increase as a percentage of their total loan portfolio, according to an analysis of quarterly reports that the banks must file with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.
The increases occurred in the first quarter of 2008, year over year, the last quarter for which comparable reports for all nine banks were available. Two of the local banks saw a drop in their share of problem loans, and one bank was virtually flat.
August 25th, 2008 at 7:22 am
From the WSJ:
Fannie, Freddie Woes Vex Experts
And Leave U.S. Hard Choices
By SUDEEP REDDY
August 25, 2008; Page A2
SOME OF THE nation’s top economists figure the government’s response to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac has come to a critical turning point: They expect Treasury will be forced to inject funds into the two firms, but they’re not sure whether pulling the trigger will be enough to bolster the sagging economy.
The woes of the two mortgage-lending giants were the talk of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual mountainside conference here in Jackson Hole, Wyo. When the central bankers, academics and Wall Street economists met a year ago, the housing-market troubles had just begun to deepen global-credit problems.
Since then, government officials around the world have repeatedly intervened by injecting liquidity into markets. Their actions may have prevented a much deeper financial meltdown, but they haven’t ended the crisis.
The fundamental problem: Home prices continue to decline sharply. That is leading to more homeowner defaults and foreclosures, which further knock down real-estate values. The price declines are hitting banks that hold mortgage-related securities, ultimately restraining credit and slowing the overall economy.
“It’s simply not clear — at least not clear to me — what will stop this self-reinforcing process,” Harvard economist Martin Feldstein told conference participants.
August 25th, 2008 at 7:31 am
Clotpoll, Sybarite,
From the last thread… thank you! Thank you for having the insight to realize exactly what I’m trying to say through my perverse writing.
August 25th, 2008 at 7:53 am
(4) I referenced this article by James Quinn yesterday because he is so passionate about the economic problems this country faces. The article is a bit amateurish (don’t ask me what the symbols in the education section represent) and he tries to cover too much in each article but he does research the subject and I believe, is trying to help solve the problem by exposing more and more people to undeniable facts.
That said, he is short-sighted in the defense area and adds too much politics for my taste. But he shows an America at war with itself..unable to reconcile the constant battle over power and money. (Lobbies/ no term limits.)
He basically asks the question: Aren’t there 535 honest people who care about America that can get us back on the right track? (100 senators/435 representatives.)
I’m sorry you didn’t like it reinvestor but Quinn sees those in denial as part of the problem.
August 25th, 2008 at 8:05 am
NJMLS Data for Bergen County
Year AvgList AvgSold Med Sold U/C
1991 $264,284 $259,092 $200,000 850 692
1992 $267,495 $245,035 $203,000 905 728
1993 $261,938 $243,886 $205,000 898 856
1994 $276,675 $258,822 $213,500 973 788
1995 $266,559 $229,172 $205,000 450 598
1996 $285,657 $269,956 $218,000 890 741
1997 $276,288 $265,457 $218,000 1014 826
1998 $290,818 $282,631 $222,500 1101 878
1999 $330,717 $321,389 $250,000 1093 850
2000 $331,712 $324,754 $260,000 986 842
2001 $393,582 $381,572 $300,000 1059 855
2002 $423,124 $416,943 $335,000 1069 893
2003 $484,231 $469,366 $380,000 1130 1138
2004 $625,260 $608,696 $455,000 1282 967
2005 $600,208 $588,485 $480,000 1082 944
2006 $646,553 $607,437 $490,000 904 750
2007 $671,673 $628,673 $505,000 899 842
2008 $670,293 $607,707 $467,000 675 693
August 25th, 2008 at 8:05 am
FYI: Above data for July!!!
August 25th, 2008 at 8:25 am
I posted this to the previous entry but i’m guessing I should be posting it here too for people to see….
What worries me is the 2.3% number in Bergen County. I’m not sure how they came up with that.
I’ve seen houses listed for quite a bit less than their 2006 prices and what banks are willing to let go at auction is significantly less.
I have a feeling from my quick look that the homes that are being sold are more expensive and that’s skewing the numbers. It’s not that the median house price hasn’t fallen, it’s that lower priced homes aren’t selling. The article seems to confirm that.
Anyone with MLS access able to do some more digging?
August 25th, 2008 at 8:32 am
“The Danish central bank said Monday it has taken over the country’s eighth largest bank after it was hit by the subprime housing crisis.”
http://www.cnbc.com/id/26388395
Wasn’t CNBC pumping the decoupling theory a few months back?
August 25th, 2008 at 8:43 am
I think we’re going to see a lot of bank mergers coming up so that there are only like 12 big banks left in the world. That way the news won’t sound so bad when the headline reads “Only 2 banks failed in 2009″.
August 25th, 2008 at 8:44 am
forgot to add the :)
August 25th, 2008 at 8:50 am
4…..how can you tell….you shills all sound the same.
August 25th, 2008 at 8:53 am
Marisol Perez :2
Her situation, while tragic, is not truly a housing problem. It’s more of a social problem.
“When Perez and her fiancé bought in Dover two years ago, foreclosure was the furthest thing from their minds. They put down $4,000 on a $245,000 home and took out two fixed-rate loans, one at 7 percent interest, the other at 9 percent.”
When you need 2 loans to buy a POS, when you can only put $4K down (less than 2%)….you probably should be renting. Who convinced this family that buying at these terms was the social norm?
And then her “fiance” leaves her with 3 kids? Where’s that social norm??
And now a new loan with a 40 year term!?!?!?! She’ll pay $500K in interest alone! And she’ll be underwater forever. Lady…can you find Nemo down there??
August 25th, 2008 at 9:00 am
“Who convinced this family that buying at these terms was the social norm?”
That was the social norm. That was the banking norm. It was incredibly stupid but it was normal to be incredibly stupid on both sides.
She’s saving money in interest overall though but I’m not sure if the payment included the escrow payments or not. I posted more about this foreclosures story earlier today.
August 25th, 2008 at 9:06 am
$4,000 is more like something you would put down when buying a car.
August 25th, 2008 at 9:09 am
Perez-
“Then Perez said she and her fiancé broke up, he insisting she buy out his portion of the house”
His “Portion” was half of thier down payment…$2K. What a Family Guy!! Leave your woman and 3 kids (were they all his kids?) and demand $2K.
No 40 year loan will save you money over a 30 year loan. She won’t start chipping away at principal for the first 10 years.
August 25th, 2008 at 9:09 am
“$4,000 is more like something you would put down when buying a car.”
With some of the deals lenders were making to get people to keep buying houses as things started to slow, $4,000 down isn’t so bad. Some people walked away from the closing with a few grand extra in their pockets.
August 25th, 2008 at 9:12 am
“No 40 year loan will save you money over a 30 year loan.”
It will since they also cut the interest rate in half from 10% to 5%.
August 25th, 2008 at 9:12 am
Yeah, but if you can only put down 4k, as someone already pointed out, you lack the dicipline to save, thus not making you financially ready or responsible enough to buy a house
August 25th, 2008 at 9:14 am
Uh oh. Looks like Friday’s rally fueled by the potential Korean buyout of Lehman Brother is about to be reversed. It appears they don’t think Lehman is worth it.
Frank? Didn’t you say on Friday that nothing is wrong with the economy since Lehman found more funding?
Dolt!
Existing home sales report at 10am.
August 25th, 2008 at 9:14 am
“$4,000 is more like something you would put down when buying a car.”
IRA.
August 25th, 2008 at 9:15 am
Indiana Sues Countrywide Over Lending Practices. The investigation found that “homeowners were misled when they were told one thing about their loans while signing contracts that indicated other terms,” the release said.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/26386015
Assuming she could afford it, does Ms Perez have a law suit?
August 25th, 2008 at 9:15 am
tbw,
You’d think that was obvious, but all the execs from ivy league schools at the big banks didn’t see how stupid it was to lend money to people that couldn’t pay it back indefinately.
Sure you drive up housing prices and rake in tons of money in fees, interest and through foreclosures. But they took it way too far.
August 25th, 2008 at 9:15 am
Hoboken comp killer Mls 80004076
Date Book Page Price
Purchased: 09/06/05 7684 52 $1,125,000
2406sq feet.
Sold this week $1,045,000.
$80,000 loss, 3 years later
August 25th, 2008 at 9:21 am
Cut the crap. What you’re trying to say and do is gloat over the misfortune of others. Like I said, you have no intention of buying a house, but want to “flip the bird” at sellers and realtors. I suggest that you find another form of “entertainment”
<I/gary Says:
August 25th, 2008 at 7:31 am
Clotpoll, Sybarite,
From the last thread… thank you! Thank you for having the insight to realize exactly what I’m trying to say through my perverse writing.
August 25th, 2008 at 9:21 am
#11 Rich In NNJ
Interesting to note that the top of the bubble was 2007.
Pure anecdote, no fact or substance. I have noticed that in the past two months, the towns I am watching, have added very little inventory. There was a huge surge at the start of the year into May. Since the end of July, there has been very few new listing and the numbers on the market, are steadily dropping. I think many people realized what happened, listed the property, now that they haven’t sold, the listings are expiring and not being renewed.
August 25th, 2008 at 9:23 am
#28 Tom: Do you have any additional details on this foreclosure.
#762470 Sale Date 08/15/08 265 Monroe Avenue River Edge $100 (sold back to the bank) Sovereign Bank C/O The Servicer.
Sold in Aougust of 2005 for 500K. The former owners were trying to sell it for 449K.
August 25th, 2008 at 9:25 am
#31 PGC: I have been trying to determine when the top of the bubble actually was. I have seen it lsited anywhere from late 2005, into early 2006. I thought 2007 was post bubble.
August 25th, 2008 at 9:28 am
#1
Poconos people, cry me a river. You should have thought of that before moving there. Why would you buy a place knowing you would spend 5 hours a more a day commuting.
Is a mcmansion worth the wear and tear on your bodies and the lost time with your kids? What values are you teaching your children?
you would have been better off in Charlotte or Austin.
Either stop whining or seek alternatives.
August 25th, 2008 at 9:29 am
this board talk about savings, savings, and savings every day. here is the role model for savings: after working in U.S. senate for over 30 years, his net worth is only $150K. what a loser!
http://papastraighttalk.blogspot.com/2008/08/joe-bidens-net-worth.html
August 25th, 2008 at 9:29 am
From CNNMoney.com
Houses in sub-prime shape lead house charge down…
http://tinyurl.com/632fso
What’s scary is, there are several houses I’ve seen in sub-prime shape that are asking for top dollar with the owners feeling perfectly justified.
August 25th, 2008 at 9:31 am
1) It’s on the side of a mountain.
2) 3/4ths of the yard (if you want to call it that) is the driveway.
3) You have to pay a mandatory monthly fee of a few hundred bucks because it’s in a Country Club community (whatever the f*ck that means)
4) Notice where the 20″ TV is stuffed into a corner because there’s no place to put one.
5) I’m not sure if you can get a bed into one of the so-called bedrooms.
I have a half dozen other things you would love but don’t have the notes with me in work. The realtor had to explain numerous things in detail why certain things were skewed and how they can be “easily” fixed. You know, like knocking out whole walls and such (sarcasm off). This one is “priced to move fast” according to the realtor. It all looks pretty in the pictures, doesn’t it?
http://www.realtor.com/realestate/ramsey-nj-07446-1101710057/
August 25th, 2008 at 9:32 am
#34 barien: i ahd a family member that comuted form the Poconos 15 years ago. 110 miles each way to Water St in lower Manhattan. @ buses at night, the 5:30, or the 7:15. Bad weatehr was spent living at th in laws.
One winter he must of spent tmost of the time during th week at his in laws. He did if for 10 years. Eventually moved back to NJ.
August 25th, 2008 at 9:35 am
3b,
You can view the foreclosure info that I have.
Judgment was $416,761.48
There also seems to be an irs lien of around $16k.
There’s a typo in the bank name, should be Sovereign Bank. The judgment was awarded on 2/21/2007.
That’s about all I know. If you’re interested in purchasing it you have to find out who the contact person is at Soverign for their REO dept.
August 25th, 2008 at 9:36 am
#33 3b
Don’t forget that “Real Estate is Local” and so is the bubble. I think nationally, 2005 was the high, BC i think held out until 2007.
August 25th, 2008 at 9:40 am
#39 Tom: The judgement wa awarded in Feb of 2007, and th epeople just moved out at the begining of this August? does that make sense?
Do you know how I would go about trying to find the contact person at Sovereign?
August 25th, 2008 at 9:40 am
Why McCain should be distancing himself from Phil Gramm:
Treasury for Dummies
As a director of Swiss banking giant UBS AG, Phil Gramm, a former U.S. senator from Texas, oversaw careless lending activities that culminated in a massive $43 billion in writedowns on U.S. subprime loans — so far, the biggest hit any European bank has taken in the collapse of the U.S. housing bubble. And on August 8, U.S. federal authorities extracted an agreement from UBS to repurchase $19 billion worth of so-called auction-rate securities.
Like subprimes, these are loans with interest that “resets” at higher rates over time — a feature often not disclosed or properly explained to buyers.
This interesting take on corporate governance is something of a family affair. Wendy Gramm, former head of the Commodities Futures Trading Commission and wife of the former powerful senator, had a long stint on the board of Enron Corp. as it drifted toward an iceberg field (and has since paid back some of her director’s fees to settle a class-action lawsuit).
In the U.S. Senate, Gramm was the prime cheerleader for the fiscally ruinous “supply-side economics” policies by which Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush bequeathed a record-sized federal deficit to Bill Clinton.
None of which would hold much interest for us save that Gramm, who recently said Americans are merely imagining the poor economic conditions afflicting the country, is John McCain’s most influential economic adviser and a long-time close friend. And while he formally quit the McCain campaign last month after burping out his views on the psychosomatic downturn, Gramm is heavily favoured as treasury secretary in a McCain administration.
http://www.thestar.com/Business/article/484802
August 25th, 2008 at 9:41 am
Grimm unmod 42:)
August 25th, 2008 at 9:41 am
#40 Understood.
August 25th, 2008 at 9:42 am
#38 3b
I commuted to NYC for 5 years from metropark and metuchen. My last day before I moved to Australia I was planning on making a speech on the train about being the luckiest man on the face of the earth since I would no longer have to take the NE corridor. Unfortunately the gods ruined my plan by having that big blackout the day before. Took me hours to get home. And my speech was cancelled.
August 25th, 2008 at 9:49 am
Can anyone with MLS access for Monmouth County tell me what happened to the listing on Monument Street in Freehold? It was on the market for awhile, but now it is gone. I am curious if it is UC or Sold or Withdrawn?
Thanks
August 25th, 2008 at 9:50 am
Long article, follow the link.
It’s more than Fannie and Freddie
http://www.frontlinethoughts.com/
A few weeks ago when I was in Maine, I met Chris Whalen. Chris is the managing director of a service called Institutional Risk Analytics, whose primary business is analyzing the health of banks and financial institutions.
What they have done is come up with various metrics which compare how well-capitalized a bank is, how much risk it is taking, and what kind of losses (or profits) it can expect. It is a one of a kind firm, and the data gives Chris a very special perspective on the US banking system.
And what he sees is not pretty. There is a crisis brewing. He expects 100 banks to fail between now and July of 2009. Most of them will be small, but there will be a few large banks. The total assets of those banks he estimates to be $850 billion (not a typo!). Those are the assets the FDIC is going to have to cover when they take over the banks….
The FDIC has about $50 billion. These reserves have been built up over the years from deposit insurance paid by banks that are part of the program. They are going to need an estimated $20 billion just to cover the failure of Indy Mac. The FDIC will have to cover only a small percentage of the $850 billion, as some of those assets will surely be good.
But if they have to cover 10%, then the FDIC would need another $50 billion. Does that sound like a lot? Chris thinks a more conservative number for planning purposes would be 20-25% potential losses, and you hope it does not get there…..
Sober-minded analysis from the IMF suggests that the total write-offs by all banks may be $1 trillion. Dr. Nouriel Roubini is much more alarmed and puts the potential losses at closer to $2 trillion. That means that banks over time are going to have to increase their loan loss provisions, hitting both earnings and capital. And that means they will have to raise more investment capital and equity at a time when their stock prices are low.
It is a vicious spiral. Banks have less capital, so they are able to lend less to the very businesses that need the money; and without said money the businesses will be less capable of paying their current loans, which means that banks have less capital. Rinse and repeat.
CAN YOU SAY DEFLATION??? such a spiral is a perfect example of deflation triggered and driven by credit contraction. This is essentially what caused the “Great Depression” of the 30’s. A freezing of the credit system.
August 25th, 2008 at 9:54 am
Kettle1 (46): “It’s more than Fannie and Freddie”
This is exactly how I see it breaking down as well.
I am truly surprised that the entire system is holding up as well as it has. If we have a cold winter driving up energy costs. Oh my!
August 25th, 2008 at 9:55 am
Therapist helping builders copping with markets
http://www.ajc.com/business/content/business/stories/2008/08/25/builders_therapists.html
Tony Soprano!
August 25th, 2008 at 9:55 am
3b,
“The judgement wa awarded in Feb of 2007, and th epeople just moved out at the begining of this August? does that make sense?”
Makes perfect sense. Until the foreclosure auction the owners are under no obligation to move out. In fact, in NJ the buyer at the auction can not take possession of the property until the 10 day redemption period is over. If the previous owner hasn’t left, you would have to go to court to evict them.
That they left in the beginning of August might indicate that there was a cash for keys deal where the bank gave them money to move out.
“Do you know how I would go about trying to find the contact person at Sovereign?”
Call them up and ask for the REO dept. Most REO’s in NJ are listed in MLS so you could also check to see if it’s listed.
August 25th, 2008 at 9:56 am
I turned on Good Morning America this morning, and an ODrama surrogate explained why Hillary was not considered by making the comment “ODrama will need Hillary in the Senate”. To me, that sounded a lot like “We can’t promote Judy to a manager postion because we need her to remain as a secretary and answer the phone.”
August 25th, 2008 at 9:57 am
#49 Tom: Thanks.
August 25th, 2008 at 9:59 am
#9 gary
I went to an open house last year that was a contractor rebuild. The place was gorgeous. The guy had taken an old cape on 2 acres on a main road out of town. He kept the footprint, but built it out to commercial grade so that he could market it as a home office or doctors office if needed. It had beautiful landscaping and done so well, that the disabled access was not noticeable. The problem was that he was looking $600K. He bought for $250 and put in about $100K. My pricing put the place at about $450-480.
When I started discussing this with the realtor over the next few days she came out with the line, “maybe I can show you something more suited to your price range”.
This is the one comment that really sets me off. It shows how much out of touch she was. My reply back to here was that is was that the asking price was in my price range, but that did not mean that the property was worth it’s asking price.
I learnt many years ago to never make assumptions on peoples wealth or lack of. There are many millionaires driving around in a sub $30K/10yo car and many paupers with a car lease and bling on Layaway.
August 25th, 2008 at 9:59 am
kettle1,
“It’s more than Fannie and Freddie”
I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again. Last year Fannie and Freddie bought a hole bunch or bad debt from other banks. We’ve seen charts showing just how bad the debt was.
They couldn’t buy all of it but I think it was an attempt to delay the problems at other banks hoping that some miracle would happen. One of the attempts is dropping the discount rate down to 2.25 from 5.75 a year ago. Mortgage rates haven’t fallen accordingly.
August 25th, 2008 at 10:02 am
Kettle 46
That’s exactly what will happen if the Fed’s and Washington don’t interfere.
And we all know they will. My monrey is that Ben and Co will continue to print securities and exchange them through the window for treasuries which it will print.
Print treasuries until our AAA ratings goes through the window and then dollars from all over the world hit the FX and whalla hyper inflation.
Ben, a student of the Great sdepression will not allow for the credits markets to stop at any cost.
Just look at how he’s been handling things so far. Print, Print, Print.
August 25th, 2008 at 10:03 am
From MarketWatch:
U.S. July inventory of existing homes at record high
U.S. July existing home sales rise 3.1% to 5.0 million pace
U.S. existing home sales down 13.2% in past year
August 25th, 2008 at 10:05 am
BI:
For someone who doesn’t like flip-floppers, you seem to be one yourself.
First you complain that O is an elitist cause he made so much cash off of his book. Now you point out that his veep is piss poor so not fit to lead.
Make up your mind. Oh wait, one can’t make up their mind if one’s mind does not exist in the first place!
And nice job last Friday with your ultra-accurate political reporting on who O was going to choose for veep.
The only thing that you appear to be consistent with is being wrong.
I hope you had a nice weekend.
August 25th, 2008 at 10:08 am
37#, stu, find out where i said this.
as a matter of fact, i think this is one of his greatest acchivements in his life.
the funny thing is many of his supporters even cannot name one or two of his achievements when asked on TV.
>First you complain that O is an elitist cause he made so much cash off of his book
August 25th, 2008 at 10:08 am
“U.S. July existing home sales rise 3.1% to 5.0 million pace”
Any minute now, I expect Frank and BI to call a bottom in housing ;)
August 25th, 2008 at 10:11 am
All I know is Oh Bama! is for big govt and raising taxes. Two things I severely oppose. Socalized healthcare too. I can’t vote for that.
August 25th, 2008 at 10:12 am
The residents and commuters of northeast Pennsylvania are hurting. We are not able to afford the rising cost of the bus fare to New York on a daily basis.
Does no one care about the residents in the area? We are hurting. We need help
The moral of the story is that “there is no such thing as a free lunch”.
You wanted a new construction McMansions for $275,000 but keep your NYC salary. Didn’t that sound too good to be true?
August 25th, 2008 at 10:15 am
#53 PGC,
I take it you are not using that re agent? :)
I had an agent in Summit say to me “Perhaps you are not ready to buy”. Like her lame line was going to make me man up and put my family in financial stress. Told her I wasn’t ready to be a bagholder. Guess what, looks like the ask in Summit for the type of house we are interested in is down at least 20% since then. I’m hoping next year would put it at 30% to 35% off peak and the PITI would be about the same as renting.
August 25th, 2008 at 10:16 am
From MarketWatch:
U.S. July existing home sales up 3.1%, inventories rise
Resales of U.S. single-family homes and condos rose 3.1% in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.0 million, the National Association of Realtors reported Monday. Resales have sunk 13.2% in the past year. The gain was stronger than expected. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected sales to rise to 4.91 million. Despite the increase in sales, the inventory of unsold homes on the market rose 3.9% to 4.67 million, an 11.2 month supply at the current sales pace. The median sales prices fell 7.1% in the past year to $212,400.
August 25th, 2008 at 10:17 am
“All I know is Oh Bama! is for big govt and raising taxes.”
And how is this not better than the current administration’s policies of big gov’t and lowering taxes other than the next generation will have to pay for it?
Gotta take baby steps in the right direction.
August 25th, 2008 at 10:17 am
#62 barien: Yeah but if you rent there will meth labs next door, and kondom wrapprs on the street.
And you will not be able to make any family memories, and you won’t be able to paint the white walls a different color? Are you aware of all of this? (sarcams off)
August 25th, 2008 at 10:19 am
And give me an ‘M’ achievement. As much as I respect that he crashed planes over Vietnam for our freedom, being locked up in a North Vietnamese prison camp and tortured for 6 years hardly makes one a foreign policy expert.
So besides finishing at the bottom of his class in the naval academy where he was only able to get in due to dad’s credentials and besides getting into the pilots seat also due to his dad’s credentials and after committing adultery and making lies after lies throughout his campaign, not to mention that all of his wealth comes from his wife who has the honorable distinction of being the queen of beer distribution due to a family inheritance, you will still pull the lever for this old coot who appears to make a senile Ronald R look like a memory master.
The similarities between our current buffoon in command and M are shocking. Can’t wait for 4 more years of the same BS. Costa Rica here I come!
August 25th, 2008 at 10:22 am
tbw :46
Can you tell me the house number on Monument St?
Is it #21, which seems to have a long and sordid history of Expired and Unconditionally Withdrawn Listings over the last few years………..
August 25th, 2008 at 10:22 am
And for those fooled by the Republican’s pledges of lower taxes. You better be making 400K or more a year cause otherwise you are screwed.
GWB doubled the deficit in 7 years. BC actually created a surplus. For all the talk of Dems and big government, the tale of the tape speaks otherwise. Stop believing the Republican propaganda and seek the facts for a change.
August 25th, 2008 at 10:23 am
64#, 60#, under bush admin and democrat congress, government spending has been increased over 60% from 8 years ago. that is the problem next president should attack. but from mr.o’s economic plan, there is no sign for that. instead, there will be more spending projects such as universal healthcare. in last sunday’s chicago sun time, there was a very interesting article on how his top advisers and his wife tied together running such kind of stuff - this is prelude of future universal healthcare system.
August 25th, 2008 at 10:25 am
“4: the number of houses Sen. John McCain’s campaign initially guessed that he owned (as opposed to his answer, “I can’t tell”). The actual number, according to news reports, is seven. Zero is the amount that Sen. Barack Obama paid for his garden, which The Times U.K. notes was sold for $625,000 to a political ally. The Senator reportedly paid $300,000 less than asking for his house. The next time I want to move, remind me to become a senator/presidential candidate first.”
http://www.inman.com/buyers-sellers/columnists/alisonrogers/real-estate-numbers
August 25th, 2008 at 10:26 am
“Gotta take baby steps in the right direction.”
Having a D pres w/ a D congress is not a step in the right direction if your concern is the growth of government (think NJ on the national scale). It is the recipe for financial diaster. Think back to the years of W and an R congress, with The One we are going to get that type of nonsense times 4. Divided government is our only hope.
August 25th, 2008 at 10:26 am
#65 3b
Don’t forget I’m “putting my life on hold”. And the “upfront costs for a rental are the same as buying with the 1.5 month deposit, first months rent, and commission, so you might as well buy.” So what if owning costs $1,500 a month more than renting.
Guess what? I’m on my second rental since we moved back and we have paid 1.5 weeks rent in total commission. First landlord split the commission, second one paid in full. Both rentals were at least 1k a month cheaper to rent than buy, not even factoring in time value of money and repairs.
August 25th, 2008 at 10:27 am
You talk about universal healthcare as if it’s something akin to killing babies.
If implemented correctly, universal healthcare can be a good thing. From what I’ve seen most of the proposals seem to just be mandatory insurance enrollment for the uninsured.
August 25th, 2008 at 10:28 am
If you think BC “created” a surplus you are more delusional that I give you credit for.
August 25th, 2008 at 10:28 am
In football, when a running back intends to cut to the left, he often first fakes right. This move is designed to make the defense commit their resources in the wrong direction. It is my experience that markets often follow a similar path. Just prior to a major move in one direction, markets often make a sharp move in the opposite direction first. With respect to the dollar, gold, oil and other commodities, many on Wall Street have bought into the head fake, and will soon be watching in amazement as the runner sprints to the end zone.
Over the last few months, as the dollar rose more than 10% against a basket of other currencies, and as gold and oil sank to multi-month lows, many investors concluded that a threshold had been crossed, and that the bearish trend for the dollar and the bullish trends for commodities had finally come to an end. But rather than representing a sea change, these counter trend moves more likely signify that the established trends are about to kick it into a whole new gear. My take is that if you thought you had seen a bear market in the dollar and bull market in gold, oil, and other commodities, well, “you ain’t seen nothing yet”.
peter schiff’s newsletter. He really gets it.
August 25th, 2008 at 10:28 am
All I know is that more and more of my paycheck goes for healthcare that is crappier and crappier. I used to have no copay, now I pay $20. My drugs used to be free, now they are $20 on average. And each year I am contributed more and more out of each pay check for worse and worse coverage. I’m at the point now where I just go to the clinic with the local Mexicans since the service is better and I don’t need an appointment. What a joke our health-care system has become. I’ll take universal health care in a heart beat.
August 25th, 2008 at 10:29 am
I’d have to agree that one party rule leads to massive overspending.
August 25th, 2008 at 10:31 am
#62 Barian
She was hard to shake off. When I told her we were under contract for a BC REO, she was straight into a pitch on how she used to work in the area, she has great contacts and we should really have talked to her before committing. If it does not go through she would have some new listings ready for us. It was like canceling AOL or a gym membership. She would not accept no. She smelt the down payment and the prospect of a sale.
Funny thing was that the listing expired and the builder listed it for rent. He was looking for $2500 which was at or about the market average. Using the 15yr return model, that put the value at $450K.
August 25th, 2008 at 10:31 am
JBJB: “If you think BC “created” a surplus you are more delusional that I give you credit for.”
I like how you back up your posts with such clear facts.
I suppose years of taking Republicans at their word (also rarely backed by facts) have set the precedent for your line of thinking.
August 25th, 2008 at 10:32 am
Shore Guy– care to elaborate where you’re looking at lake houses? are they in reasonable driving distance from NYC?
August 25th, 2008 at 10:38 am
Can paulson and friends hold back the next implosion until after november???
Charting stressed banks
It is routine to weight the risk of a major bank defaulting by looking at the relevant CDS prices.
But here’s an alternative measure increasingly used by asset managers - the spread between the yield on Tier 1 paper and “lower” Tier 2 securities.
SEE CHART:
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/08/22/15308/charting-stressed-banks/
August 25th, 2008 at 10:38 am
Make,
I’d have to agree with Schiff. Nothing’s changed over the course of the past month or so to justify the action in the dollar/commodities. Nothing. No new stability in the financial markets. No new major oil discovery/alternative energy developments. No new geopolitcal improvements (if anything they’ve gotten worse). Bunch of lemmings running off the cliff is all I can see.
August 25th, 2008 at 10:39 am
Stuey
Why would I need to post anything to back up that claim? The idea that BC himslef created a surplus is so absurd it stands for itself (and I voted for him, twice). The fact is any particular pres has very little impact on macro economic events. BC had balanced budgets becuase he had an opposition party fighting him all the way, which is the way it should be.
August 25th, 2008 at 10:39 am
#69 - most of us are more afraid of losing our current health insurance than we are of a “universal” plan. Remember, Obama’s plan is not “socialized”, it still involves insurance companies.
August 25th, 2008 at 10:41 am
I’m at the point now where I just go to the clinic with the local Mexicans since the service is better and I don’t need an appointment. What a joke our health-care system has become. I’ll take universal health care in a heart beat.
Service is better at the Clinics?? Which one?
Universal healthcare cheaper and better? Where?
People from all over the world come here to cure themselves or undergo complex surgeries cause our hospitals(on the east side) are the best in the world.
We are the Benzes and the BMW of healthcare and just cause we produce some a Daewoo or two, we should change the whole system?
because my hard earned moneygets better medical services then the bum on welthfare we should have everyone get the same mediocre healthcare?
It’s like everything else in life the more you spend the better customer you are and better service you will receive.
We have Medicare and Medicaid to help poor people receive treatment and they can not be denied services in hospitals.
What more do they want for free?
August 25th, 2008 at 10:43 am
I was in Barnes & Noble last Thursday, picked up Fleckenstein and Morris books. Anyway some realtor jerkoff is in the business section talking all manic on his cellphone “Well is Fannie fails it will only affect the shareholders…people will still be able to get mortgages…I tell my clients that you’ve been waiting for five years for a buyers market now you have one it’s time to pull the trigger…do you want to wait for them to raise interest rates, you are better off paying a higher purchase price than a point higher”. I should have bought him a copy of each book.
August 25th, 2008 at 10:48 am
“I used to have no copay, now I pay $20. My drugs used to be free, now they are $20 on average.”
Wow, I can’t imagine how you manage to get by. The fact that you spend your day persuing a real estate blog in an effort to root out any anti-The One talk makes me think you aren’t doing to bad.
August 25th, 2008 at 10:50 am
Fiddy Cents on the Dollar:
Yes, 21 Monument
August 25th, 2008 at 10:51 am
make Money 55
So far it hasnt been up to bernanke. he can print all he wants. But unless the banks and companies are willing to extend credit then we have a depression.
bernanke cannot force banks and companies to extend credit and so far all they have done is hoard whatever cash they can acquire and lock down credit.
What we are seeing is a self propagating event. If the government had let things fall then they would have hit hard but they would have hit and been done. Instead no one trust the system and everyone is battening the hatches. It is a self fulfilling event. Business needs credit to cover costs or they fail and banks are cutting credit lines because borrowers may default.
All that is a distraction (if a very serious one) the core issue is that we built an empire (housing wealth) on an unsustainable base. Now that housing is going down there is no industry to take its place. We are consumers not producers (uh-oh). Add to that the atmospheric degree of leverage involved and berneke cannot win.
Bernanke faces a Pyrrhic victory. if he defeats deflation he will cause hyperinflation. Banks and businesses WILL NOT pass credit to borrows as they see a lose-lose choice in front of them. A smart business will hoard money and try to survive the tsunami.
August 25th, 2008 at 10:51 am
That Charles Morris book “Trillion Dollar Meltdown” is a real eye-opener, isn’t it?? I don’t think he’s exaggerating either!!
I borrowed mine from the local library and had to return it….it was scarier than any Steven King novel.
August 25th, 2008 at 10:52 am
#83 make money
Singapore is considered to have one of the best health care systems in the world. I think Taiwan’s healthcare is superior to the US as well. It only costs about $3 US for a copay in Taiwan. and you can be seen by a Dr trained at Harvard or Johns Hopkins.
Australia has a sever Dr. shortage which is why they are importing Dr’s from Russia and India. . The private hospitals are defintely superior to the public universal care ones. I think the low pay and amount of hours required casuse Aussies to find easier ways to make a buck.
August 25th, 2008 at 10:54 am
Off of Ritholtz’s Blog, funny:
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/photos/uncategorized/2008/08/12/pawn_shop.gif
August 25th, 2008 at 10:55 am
Stu: Universal healthcare…who do you think will be paying for it? Doctors arent working for free. Drug companies will still charge high prices for medication. Govt will only screw it up more. What has govt done right? Say goodbye to your paychecks
August 25th, 2008 at 10:55 am
I am almost done with the Fleckenstein book, start the Morris one next.
August 25th, 2008 at 10:56 am
85 - JBJB
“Wow, I can’t imagine how you manage to get by. The fact that you spend your day persuing a real estate blog in an effort to root out any anti-The One talk makes me think you aren’t doing to bad.”
Present facts and then we could be persuaded. This is a very juvenile way of presenting your argument.
As far as i can understand, the choices in front of us are - spend money in the U.S or spend money on wars. I would think that it would be easy to make a choice.
“Comparison of the Two Plans
If enacted, the Obama and McCain tax plans would have radically different effects on the distribution of tax burdens in the United States. The Obama tax plan would make the tax system significantly more progressive by providing large tax breaks to those at the bottom of the income scale and raising taxes significantly on upper-income earners. The McCain tax plan would make the tax system more regressive, even compared with a system in which the 2001–06 tax cuts are made permanent. It would do so by providing relatively little tax relief to those at the bottom of the income scale while providing huge tax cuts to households at the very top of the income distribution.”
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/08/obamas-dueling-views-on-economy.html
August 25th, 2008 at 11:00 am
tbw
21 Monument was Unconditionally Withdrawn on 8/19/08.
It’s been on the market since 12/2006 with 4 different realtors (starting with Foxtons, remember them?). Original price was $949K, last price was $849K. Taxes are said to be over $10K.
There’s only been 1 sale over $600K in Freehold Boro…ever. That was 15 Monument in July of 2003.
August 25th, 2008 at 11:05 am
Criminals don’t even want the dollar:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080822/wl_canada_afp/canadauseucrimemoney_080822212441
August 25th, 2008 at 11:05 am
regarding Universal health care:
I am usually against government involvement in my life. However, i do believe in a government run central healthcare system that guarantees a basic minimum level of healthcare while still allowing private health plans to be purchased by private indiviuals (not companies).
The core issue is that there is an inherent conflict of interest in running healthcare as a for profit business that is responsible to outside share holders for profit margins.
A for profit business in in business only to make money , as much as possible, in the most efficient manner possible. This is an exact antithiem to what healthcare should be.
The point of healthcare should be to provide the best care possible within the resources available. This will not make anyone wealthy, but can be done in a manner which is self supporting.
August 25th, 2008 at 11:05 am
89#, barien, do these countries have as many mexican illegals as we have here?
do these contries have as many inner city ghettos as we have in newark, chicago, detroit and etc.?
August 25th, 2008 at 11:09 am
Having a D pres w/ a D congress is not a step in the right direction if your concern is the growth of government (think NJ on the national scale).
Although on a positive note, at least maybe it helps puts NJ on a more even competitive footing with the rest of the country (labor policies, greenhouse gas regulation etc.). Unfortunately, I think NJ’s policy decisions right now are not driven by what is best for NJ, but rather anti Bush Administration activism.
A Democratic administration on a national level might help NJ focus on its own problems since the easy, yet politically popular, strategy of attacking Bush will no longer be an option.
August 25th, 2008 at 11:11 am
FDIC’s IndyMac Borrower Aid Is ‘Dangerous’ for Bonds
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=arnIbjO.7i4g&refer=home
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.’s plan to have IndyMac Federal Bank FSB rework mortgages for troubled homeowners is “dangerous” for bondholders, according to Barclays Capital.
Investors in mortgage-backed securities may be worse off if enough loans default after they’re modified because recoveries may be lower as home prices decline, analyst Sharon Greenberg wrote yesterday in a report. Loan changes also cost bondholders by reducing borrower payments, their collateral or both.
August 25th, 2008 at 11:14 am
95#, kettle, as a matter of fact, U.S. government currently DOES provide pretty good healthcare coverage for low-income and elderlies. they have very low copay in medicaid. even if you are illegal, you can still get assistance from hospitals. i don’t healthcare is a high priority economic issue at this juncation.
August 25th, 2008 at 11:17 am
What’s a juncation?
Is that like a staycation in a trailer?
August 25th, 2008 at 11:19 am
How can I Find a competent realtor in New Jersey when it seems none are left?
http://www.trulia.com/voices/Home_Buying/How_can_I_Find_a_competent_realtor_in_New_Jersey_w-54669–
August 25th, 2008 at 11:20 am
Rent
The point I was trying to make is that what we have here in NJ is essentially single party rule which has led to massive corruption, taxation, and over spending to supporty an ever expanding welfare state at the expense of our productive tax base (both people and corporations). Not to mention a citizenry that is compliant as long as their handouts keep coming. This cycle can not be supported as the productive will leave but the welfare recipients wont. The downfall of NJ itself is not such a big deal (to most the US) but why on earth would you wanto to traslate this horrible model to the national level?
August 25th, 2008 at 11:20 am
Seems that some people are having a hard time finding good RE agents in NJ.
August 25th, 2008 at 11:20 am
Stu,
Sorry, I usually agree with you, however on the copay subject, they should not be free. You should have to pay to go to the doctor, the people with the extremely low copays are there for the sniffles, it is hard to make a plan work for all when there will be healthy people not using and sick people using all the time-or chronic doctor visitors- copays are a way of pay as you need. The healthy people are paying the insurance for the sick, and not using the services- if they can pay less and have higher co-pays it’s better. Nobody should get $5.00 copays for a doctor visit. The doctor should be $30.00 min. We pay $5.00 for a cup of coffee.
KL
August 25th, 2008 at 11:22 am
#99 bi
“even if you are illegal, you can still get assistance from hospitals”
They do a great free taxi service to the local clinic.
Unless you require critical care, most hospitals will shunt people who can’t pay on.
August 25th, 2008 at 11:24 am
#96 bi,
Australia has ghettoes.
Companies being forced to provide health benefits in the US are another reason jobs are being offshored and are manufacturing base is dwindling. The big 3 automakers have to spend at least $1,500 a car on benefits for employees and retirees. There is somethingg like 1 UAW worker for every 2.5 in retirement. Japanese automakers don’t have to deal with that.
If you add the cost ou you private health insurance to what you pay in taxes, you’ll discover you are paying more in taxes than people in comparable income brackets pay in Europe and Australia pay in taxes.
When I was working in Sydney I was making less there than in NYC, but because I didn’t have to pay for soc Security, Medicare, much lower cost of commuting, I had more in my pocket every paycheck than when I was working in NYC, plus the employer paiud another 15% of my gross pay into a retirement account for me.
The US is a bad combination of high taxes and low services.
August 25th, 2008 at 11:24 am
HEHEHE Says:
August 25th, 2008 at 10:38 am
Make, I’d have to agree with Schiff. Nothing’s changed over the course of the past month or so to justify the action in the dollar/commodities. Nothing. No new stability in the financial markets. No new major oil discovery/alternative energy developments. No new geopolitcal improvements (if anything they’ve gotten worse). Bunch of lemmings running off the cliff is all I can see.
HEHEHE: You cannot compare apples and oranges. If you want to perform fundamental analysis, then your stated observations support your conclusion. However, you are referencing markets that are being run by technicians. As a result, what you should review are the behavior and conditions that the technicians are displaying, and not reference empirical analysis.
August 25th, 2008 at 11:27 am
JBJB:
If generating a stalemate is your main reason for voting for M, then you are more delirious than even I am. ;)
As for the copays, I agree that they need to exist to weed out the habitual hypochondriacs. I was just complaining about the ever rising costs for treating my constant sinus infections.
Yes, we have some of the finest surgeons and specialists in the world. Lord knows, my insurance provider is not on their list of acceptable payment options. Though, my Mexican clinic takes my insurance coverage.
August 25th, 2008 at 11:28 am
Chi,
Just saying the money flows out they all follow one another. The money flows in they all follow one another. In that aspect the technicals are all self-fulfilling. It’s that type of market right now. Seems like little investing going on but a whole lot of trading.
August 25th, 2008 at 11:28 am
108 in mod Grim
August 25th, 2008 at 11:31 am
Bi 99
medicare/medicade
Have seen the $$$$ liability that we are facing for these programs?!?!? the medicare medicade programs alone could bankrupt us. These programs were never meant to be universal healthcare or anything close to that.
August 25th, 2008 at 11:35 am
110#, i agree that it may be better off to address currrent medicare/medicaid issue rather than adding another government run program called universal healthcare.
>Bi 99
medicare/medicade
Have seen the $$$$ liability that we are facing for these programs?!?!? the medicare medicade programs alone could bankrupt us. These programs were never meant to be universal healthcare or anything close to that.
August 25th, 2008 at 11:36 am
109- HEHE
I would have to disagree on the commodities. We are beginning to see contraction on a global scale. Hence, demand for commodities has to drop.
I do not know enough about gold to comment. From what i have read, gold is an insurance policy and not an investment vehicle.
August 25th, 2008 at 11:37 am
My dad’s a physician. I used to do billing for him. When you get a medicare or medicaid patient, you get paid like 10 cents on the dollar. You make virtually no money on them. The more we expand it, the less these programs can pay out, which means doctors must raise their prices even more. It’s a vicious cycle that’s gotten way out of control. Of course, everyone not on those two programs gets stiffed.
August 25th, 2008 at 11:37 am
here is a question i have not seen asked in public….
Cuomo has fined the investment banks for fraudulently selling securities to investors. The fines amount to 1-2% of the values involved.
If i committed fraud i can be fined significantly more then 1% and WILL be going to jail. These banks should be forfeiting 100% of profits on the deals and the execs should be in court!!!!
When will someone in public have the balls to ask the question????
For that matter any bank that receives a government bailout should be forced to first cover the amount equal to the total bonuses paid out for the last 2-3 years. Oh i forgot, we privatize gains and socialize losses here in the free market USA
August 25th, 2008 at 11:41 am
I think it would be great to extend entitlements to everyone, but money does not grow on trees. we cannot even afford the entitlements we currently have. enacting massive new entitlements does not make sense. and if you are using Europe as a model, those countries are in even worse shape on a budgetary level than we are. socialism, even in moderate form, is unsustainable in the long run.
August 25th, 2008 at 11:42 am
Kettle1…I was thinking the same exact thing about the penalty amounts. It’s like with Michael Milken. Two years served and he has an estimated net worth of around $2.1 billion as of 2007, he is ranked by Forbes magazine as the 458th richest person in the world.
August 25th, 2008 at 11:47 am
Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell was supposed to give “closing remarks” during this afternoon’s Shorenstein Center-sponsored panel discussion with all three Sunday show moderators — NBC’s Tom Brokaw, ABC’s George Stephanopoulous and CBS’s Bob Schieffer — but instead, he opened up a can of worms about bias in 2008 election coverage
“Ladies and gentleman, the coverage of Barack ODrama was embarrassing,” said Rendell, in the ballroom at Denver’s Brown Palace Hotel. “It was embarrassing.”
http://bitsblog.florack.us/?p=11136
August 25th, 2008 at 11:49 am
On Healthcare,
Does anyone has any experience with MinuteClinic’s inside CVS stores in NJ. Here is the list of stores.
http://www.minuteclinic.com/en/USA/NJ/Clinics.aspx
August 25th, 2008 at 11:53 am
Singapore is considered to have one of the best health care systems in the world. I think Taiwan’s healthcare is superior to the US as well. It only costs about $3 US for a copay in Taiwan. and you can be seen by a Dr trained at Harvard or Johns Hopkins.
Bairen
Source?
August 25th, 2008 at 11:53 am
#116 bi,
This farce we call a presidential election is embarassing.
Candidates traveling around the world to make speeches, adulterers yapping about family values, everyone making promises yet no real plan on how to accomplish them. Whenever they are pressed give vagure responses nad show they are both equally clueless.
August 25th, 2008 at 11:56 am
112 Vic,
Gold is a currency.
It’s “real” money.
That’s all.
August 25th, 2008 at 11:57 am
Make: I can’t provide a source, but remember reading the same info Bairen provided. I have also read that a lot of middle class Americans fly to Asia for affordable major surgery. I’ve noticed that those that come to the states from overseas are usually part of the ruling class of their country.
August 25th, 2008 at 11:57 am
#118 multiple sources.
Most recent one I saw was from Jim Rodgers saying that as well.
http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2007/12/24/101935724/index.htm
Also personal anectdotes from people we knew who lived in US, Singapore, and Australia. All raved about how superior Singapore’s system was.
August 25th, 2008 at 11:59 am
Want to fix health care here in the states….
TORT REFORM
August 25th, 2008 at 12:03 pm
not to worry folks…Oh Bama! will win because he:
* Is young/energetic and “hip”
* Good Looking
* Endorsed by Comedy Central
unfortunately, that is all voters care about in the end. Last election, neither candidate was charasmatic.
August 25th, 2008 at 12:03 pm
#118 make money
Also my wife is from Taiwan. Co pays are $100 NT, roughly $3 US. My wife’s friend went to Harvard Medical school, same friend’s sister and brother-in-law went to Johns Hopkins. All 3 told me Taiwan’s hospitals are loaded with Taiwanese who got MDS from IVY league schools or UK equivalent. My roommate in school was also from Taiwan. His sister got an MD from a big school in Paris.
Would you rather pay $3 to see someone who went to Harvard or whatever you are paying now to see a quack your HMO or managed care would force you to see?
August 25th, 2008 at 12:04 pm
I agree with Make re commodities/oil. Even with a global slowdown there’s still not enough oil for demand. And gold is money when people lose faith in the paper stuff otherwise governments wouldn’t prevent holding it when the paper stuff cans.
August 25th, 2008 at 12:05 pm
Yeah but don’t you get a caning for throwing your bubble gum on the ground in Singapore?
August 25th, 2008 at 12:09 pm
It’s starting to sound like a populist liberal echo chamber in here.
I don’t disagree that the marketers of the ARS got off easily with no criminal charges, but how does getting 100% reimbursement from the brokers for tens of thousands of mom and pop investors smack of ‘privatizing gains and socializing losses’?
Milken was the textbook political lynching of a financier - plain and simple. The charges he pled to were technical reporting violations to the SEC which he did not directly oversee but were the responsibility of underlings who reported to him. Hundreds of these forms (13Ds) are misfiled each year. For that he got real jail time and paid 600 million dollars. We got ‘America’s mayor’ (woo-hoo!) and the playbook for subsequent hypocritical cretins with eyes on the Presidency to use the AG/DA offices for their own ends by dredging up obscure laws and applying them to the financial sector (see Elliot Spitzer). Had Williams (his lead attorney) not died and the scumbag Giulliani threaten Milken’s family with indictment, Milken would have fought the charges and probably prevailed, a la Grasso.
Stu Says:
August 25th, 2008 at 11:42 am
Kettle1…I was thinking the same exact thing about the penalty amounts. It’s like with Michael Milken. Two years served and he has an estimated net worth of around $2.1 billion as of 2007, he is ranked by Forbes magazine as the 458th richest person in the world.
August 25th, 2008 at 12:12 pm
DJIA down 225 points.
August 25th, 2008 at 12:14 pm
Bairen{125}
Was that a John inpersonation post?
August 25th, 2008 at 12:14 pm
usuually, the poll will jump about 5 pts after favorable running mate announcement. but it went down 5 pts. seems a bad choice.
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/08/24/election.2008.poll/index.html
August 25th, 2008 at 12:16 pm
leftwing 128…
you must be new here.
Me liberal????? you might want to google some of my posts. I am probably on half a dozen government watch lists for my comments on this blog!
the main principle i want to see implemented is responsibility for ones actions. You make bad decisions you go out of business. you commit fraud you get treated no different then joe schmoe on the street.
August 25th, 2008 at 12:17 pm
#130,
No. Just sounded like one. :)
All the Taiwanese I knew who went to school at Rutgers were shocked at how expensive US health care was, how lousy it was, and the amount of time you had to wait to get an appointment.
August 25th, 2008 at 12:18 pm
Future comp killer?
Hoboken: mls#80010218
listing price 519,000
under contract this week
purchased 2006
Date Book Page Price
07/31/06 7979 37 545000
August 25th, 2008 at 12:21 pm
JBJB - one party rule
Like we did really well w/ McGreevy as gov. (sarcasm)
August 25th, 2008 at 12:22 pm
Kettle
Been around for a few months, just started posting. Good board here.
Wholeheartedly agree with your call for personal responsibility. The way the thread was going though I was anticipating someone to stand up and start preaching about ‘crosses of gold’.
Also, I just noticed the irony in my handle - it’s hockey, not politics. Politically, I’m to the right of Attila the Hun fiscally and libertarian on social issues.
August 25th, 2008 at 12:24 pm
now i am making a bold prediction about the night of nov. 4th: at least 100 death no matter odrama wins or loses. riots in mjor cities such as chicago, LA and detroit.
August 25th, 2008 at 12:24 pm
Bairen,
My personal view on things is less gov’t works.
If it was up tyo me we would abolish Medicare and Medicaid all together.
We would keep who’s on now and stop enrollment.
You want healthcare services you should pay for them. Period. Watch competition drive down prices.
If I’m poor. I have to pay for a Mechanic to change my oil and fix my flat $100 but I don’t have to pay for a triple by pass surgery?
my view is to let the market decide.
August 25th, 2008 at 12:27 pm
kettle1 - penalties
Wall St doesn’t make huge % sums of bond deals. On a equity underwriting they’ll get about 6%, on a bond about 2%. So that 1-2% charge is a pretty big hit.
August 25th, 2008 at 12:30 pm
re: Fannie/Freddie bailout.
perhaps this has already been mentioned, but I read over the weekend that wiping out all equity has attendant problems due to the fact that many small banks and S&Ls hold a lot of Fannie/Freddie preferred. Wiping out this preferred would further damage these institutions capital ratios, which could put further stress on the FDIC. just one further example of the house of cards
August 25th, 2008 at 12:34 pm
Philly GTG?
Robert J. Shiller in Philadelphia Sept. 11
http://libwww.freelibrary.org/calendar/calbydate.c fm?type=2
August 25th, 2008 at 12:38 pm
better link here:
http://libwww.library.phila.gov/calsearch/calbydate.cfm?ID=19917
August 25th, 2008 at 12:45 pm
Now a big job is waiting for junior bush:
President George H.W. Bush spoke to the nation, denouncing “random terror and lawlessness”, summarizing his discussions with Mayor Bradley and Governor Wilson, and outlining the federal assistance he was making available to local authorities. Citing the “urgent need to restore order”, he warned that the “brutality of a mob” would not be tolerated, and he would “use whatever force is necessary”. He then turned to the Rodney King case and a more moderate tone, describing talking to his own grandchildren and pointing to the reaction of “good and decent policemen” as well as civil rights leaders. He said he had already directed the Justice Department to begin its own investigation, saying that “grand jury action is underway today” and that justice would prevail.[18]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Los_Angeles_riots
August 25th, 2008 at 1:02 pm
Left wing,
Welcome to the debacle that is NJREReport! it can be a very educational place, whether you agree with the view points or not.
I would say the blog regulars agree on fiscal responsibility in general, with many following yuor atilla then hun standard and a mixed view on social issues. By theh way i may have to borrow that line “I’m to the right of Attila the Hun fiscally and libertarian on social issues” enjoy! and dont be afraid to jump in.
August 25th, 2008 at 1:02 pm
Secondary Market Says:
August 25th, 2008 at 12:34 pm
Philly GTG?
Robert J. Shiller in Philadelphia Sept. 11
SM: every knows it’s spelled Chiller….
August 25th, 2008 at 1:05 pm
kettle1 Says:
August 25th, 2008 at 11:37 am
here is a question i have not seen asked in public…. Cuomo has fined the investment banks for fraudulently selling securities to investors. The fines amount to 1-2% of the values involved.
Stu Says:
August 25th, 2008 at 11:42 am
Kettle1…I was thinking the same exact thing about the penalty amounts.
So basically you advocate to pi$$ off some of the most important tax revenue generators (by exponential amounts) that are domiciled in Cuomo’s employer?
August 25th, 2008 at 1:08 pm
ChiFi
Everyone knows Chiller sucks now.
August 25th, 2008 at 1:10 pm
chiller is really a sucker if he wants to make extra bucks on 9/11.
August 25th, 2008 at 1:12 pm
kettle
thx. it’s been educational and entertaining so far…
August 25th, 2008 at 1:14 pm
Secondary Market Says:
August 25th, 2008 at 12:38 pm
better link here:
http://libwww.library.phila.gov/calsearch/calbydate.cfm?ID=19917
Gosh darn it….I need to be in Stamford at 9AM on Friday.
If you guys go, meet here….a place very near and dear to me….
http://www.rosetattoocafe.com/homepage.html
August 25th, 2008 at 1:15 pm
Secondary Market Says:
August 25th, 2008 at 12:38 pm
better link here:
library.phila.gov/calsearch/calbydate.cfm?ID=19917
Gosh darn it….I need to be in Stamford at 9AM on Friday.
If you guys go, meet here….a place very near and dear to me….
http://www.rosetattoocafe.com/homepage.html
August 25th, 2008 at 1:22 pm
Trulia’s New iPhone House Finder
House hunting? Forget the listing agents and classified ads. Now you can find homes for sale with a few taps on a smartphone.
Trulia, one of the Web’s most visited home listing sites, on Aug. 25 is introducing a tool available on Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone that can locate all the listings and open houses in a user’s vicinity.
The free software application uses navigation technology to summon data and displays the results on an interactive map. It lets users call up such information as price, photos, square footage, and number of bedrooms. Another tap of the screen sends a call or e-mail directly to the listing agent. “It’s all about convenience,” says Trulia CEO Pete Flint.
August 25th, 2008 at 1:23 pm
“These days, hammering a For Sale sign in the front yard of a home must feel a bit like driving a stake into the rotting corpse of a vampire; fear mixed with incredulity and the foggy notion that this unnatural gesture may not, in fact, work. ”
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/socionomics-fear-homes-unemployment/index/a/18655
August 25th, 2008 at 1:24 pm
on the Fannie/Freddie preferred issue, see below:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/47938146-70ae-11dd-b514-0000779fd18c.html?nclick_check=1
August 25th, 2008 at 1:25 pm
Say, what exactly were Attila the Hun’s fiscal policies anyway. Conquest, confiscation, tribute, these are “right” fiscal principles?
Real nice fantasy Bi. Should probably talk to a psychologist about your violent thoughts.
August 25th, 2008 at 1:28 pm
Tom,
Did you do any analysis on
145 Heather Hill Road, Cresskill, NJ
The sales price went from 575K to 1.2M in under a year. Looks like there was a first for $931K.
August 25th, 2008 at 1:36 pm
I must be missing something.
If the median household income for Summit is 118k, how come the cheapest decent house for sale is listed at 339k? The median income with 20% down can barely afford the cheapest non tear down in Summit?
I think we still have a long ways to go in this bust.
August 25th, 2008 at 1:37 pm
Attn Bucks County residents/soon to be residents.
I’d like to take a drive down tomorrow to see it for myself. Can anyone suggest where to go or stay away from? I spoke to a friend yesterday who swears you can still buy a couple of acres and build inexpensively (compared to NY/NNJ). Any truth to that? Any help would be appreciated. Get my email from Grim if necessary.
Thanks!
August 25th, 2008 at 1:40 pm
I was just thinking that I can’t believe I have been on the sidelines for close to 4 years now. I have bidded on places in the past, but just gave up and decided to move into an apt in the city. Living in somewhat tight quarters with two young kids, but still doable. I in no way feel like I’ve held up my life waiting to buy a place, just living it differently than most homeowners. With Labor Day right around the corner, the selling season is done. So prices should soften further into the fall and set a base for next springs prices. With declining prices, softening employment, less credit availability and increasing resets on ARM’s to the peak of loan issuance it should make for another volatile mix in the real estate market next year. For those who have made the jump to homeownership, enjoy for many years. Make sure it’s a long term decision you are making. For those looking to sell, good luck, don’t be emotional about selling, take what the market gives you. If you plan on waiting it out to get 2005/6 prices, remember the real estate cycle is a very long cycle. We have only just past the peak. Looking forward to a good Labor Day weekend.
August 25th, 2008 at 1:44 pm
I would pay big bucks to get a recording of BI with a shrink!
August 25th, 2008 at 1:47 pm
#164
“With Labor Day right around the corner, the selling season is done. So prices should soften further into the fall and set a base for next springs prices. With declining prices, softening employment, less credit av