From the Central Jersey Register News:
Expert: Housing woes may last through late ‘09
The local housing market has followed its expected downward course this year, and predictions it would begin to recover about this time have proved overly optimistic.
Many in the industry agree that prices are approaching or have already hit rock bottom, but there is some dissent on how much things will worsen before they improve.
Between the second quarter of 2007 and the same period this year, existing single-family home prices dropped just over 3 percent statewide, and sales dropped 18.53 percent, according to the New Jersey Association of Realtors’ Home Sales Report. Figures for the second quarter of 2008 were released this week and are preliminary.
Locally, prices throughout Burlington County dropped just over 4 percent since this time last year, and sales went down 15 percent.
…
“I guess it’s déjà vu from 2007,” said Bill Dressel, executive director of the New Jersey State League of Municipalities. “The housing market and development in general as it relates to the public/private sector partnership has gone south.”
…
“We are fighting our way through a recessionary period as it relates to low housing starts and just a dismal financial picture as it relates to the business community overall,” he said.Joseph Seneca, professor at Rutgers Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy said there were some encouraging signs in the New Jersey real estate market, including a statewide increase in home sales in recent months, a fairly constant level of unsold inventory, and a slow decrease in prices, which he said probably helps the market.
But he emphasized the starker picture for the national economy, which he said has a large impact on the state. Rises in mortgage prices, credit standards and the large, if fairly stable, inventory of unsold houses are all national issues. So are the financial problems of large institutions, which he said have “no end in sight.”
“There are lots of foreclosures continuing nationally, and that adds more inventory to the market,” Dr. Seneca said. “House prices continue to fall, creating negative conditions for equity for homeowners.
“Foreclosures will continue to rise, and a good amount of the sales we’ve seen, particularly of existing homes, are fire sales of foreclosed homes being conducted by banks. So the housing market remains on a downward trajectory and prices are likely to continue to erode into 2009, nationally and in New Jersey.”
…
Experts generally agreed that the market is attractive for buyers with good credit who did not buy a house recently. “If you have equity in your home and we can price your house to sell, we can sell your home,” said Jeanne Roveda, broker/president of Century 21 B&R Realty in Upper Freehold. “Have prices adjusted? Yes, they obviously have. If you bought your house in 2005, 2006 or 2007, you may not be able to get what you paid for it.”“We’re actually at a much slower market than 12 months ago,” said Donna Reichert, one of the owners of Coldwell Banker Winzinger Reichert and Associates on Route 130 in Bordentown. She estimated prices had fallen 20 percent in the area.
She added that things have picked up in recent weeks, “but people have to be realistic to expect what to sell their house for.”
…
Dr. Seneca’s forecast was slightly bleaker than those expressed by real estate agents. He said that others’ previous predictions of an economic turnaround in the second half of this year has been “postponed,” possibly to the last six months of 2009.“And a big reason for that is the housing market hasn’t recovered, and with these negative factors,” he said, “the near-term outlook is for further weakness.
“I think there’s more correction in prices to come because of the very large inventory on the market and the still-increasing number of foreclosures putting more supply on the market, both nationally and in New Jersey,” Dr. Seneca said.
From the Times of Trenton:
Anxiety on the clock
Roberta Serra of Bloomfield expects angst to hover like a charcoal barbecue haze over her Labor Day celebration this Monday, as friends gather in the backyard and share their fears about job security and the future of the U.S. economy.
“The job market is horrible,” Serra, 47, said yesterday while walking to her home. “Everyone I know is losing their job, companies are closing down and the price of everything is sky high. I talk to people every day and there is hardly any hope,” said Serra, who is out of work on disability and will soon be job hunting. “You can only get a good job if you’re highly educated, and even they are having trouble.”
…
New Jersey has lost more than 14,100 jobs this year through July, when the unemployment rate edged up to 5.4 percent — compared with 4.2 percent a year ago.
The state mirrors a national economic downturn that many are calling a recession, yet Van Horn was surprised by “the breadth and depth of the frustration and concern.” The center has been taking this snapshot of work force attitudes since 1998, and the current mood is darker than during the recession of 2001 and 2002 — even though the economy is actually in better shape now than it was back then, he said.
The deepening angst may reflect wage stagnation: “Real wages did not increase in the last four or five years for most Americans,” Van Horn said, and consumer debt increased as many Americans, in effect, borrowed themselves a raise. Making matters worse are soaring gasoline prices, falling home values, and 401(k) retirement savings accounts caught in the stock market plunge. “People are feeling squeezed in every possible way,” Van Horn said.
Frist?
From Bloomberg:
Moody’s Reviewing All 2006, 2007 Jumbo Mortgage Bonds
Moody’s Investors Service is stepping up scrutiny of all prime-jumbo mortgage securities issued in 2006 and 2007 as the surge in U.S. foreclosures spreads beyond subprime loans.
Moody’s is studying its rankings on the securities after late payments started increasing more quickly in recent months, according to a statement today from the New York-based ratings company. The bonds aren’t all under formal reviews for downgrades, said Thomas Lemmon, a spokesman.
Defaults among homeowners “across the credit spectrum” have soared as home prices slump, mortgage rates rise and lenders rein in debt offerings, Moody’s said. “Serious delinquencies” for prime-jumbo loans in securities rose 72 percent between January and June to 1.7 percent of balances, from 1 percent, according to Moody’s.
“In contrast, subprime delinquencies, though much higher, rose 25 percent over the same period, increasing from 25.2 percent to 31.5 percent,” Peter McNally, a Moody’s analyst, wrote in a related report.
From Bank Systems and Technology:
Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac to Exit Subprime in New York
Banks lending in New York will have to change their mortgage origination systems to reflect Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s exit from subprime lending in the state. It is unclear yet how onerous those system changes will be.
The secondary mortgage agencies planned Sept. 1 departure from subprime loan purchases became known only yesterday. Fannie and Freddie, which buy more than half of all mortgage loans, recently have endured more than $11 billion in losses from unpaid mortgages, many of them subprime.
Their muted exit (not even announced on Fannie’s web site, for example) results, the agencies told reporters, from a new state law that could make all those involved in lending deemed to be “predatory” legally liable, including those buying such loans on the secondary market.
From the WSJ:
Delinquencies, Losses Continue to Rise
On Loans Backing Residential MBS
By LAUREN POLLOCK
August 27, 2008 3:29 p.m.
Delinquencies and losses on pools of loans backing U.S. residential mortgage-backed securities issued in 2006 and 2007 continued to weaken through the first half of the year, according to Moody’s Investors Service.
The ratings agency said weaker collateral, declining home values, higher mortgage rates and reduced credit availability hurt the performance of both first- and second-lien loans originated in 2006 and 2007. Deals backed by subprime, Alt-A and jumbo loans have all weakened compared with prior years.
While the absolute level of delinquencies among jumbo-loan deals remains low in comparison to other RMBS segments, Moody’s said delinquencies in that segment have been building more quickly in recent months. The agency is now reviewing for potential downgrade all jumbo transactions originated in 2006 and 2007.
While noting prime closed-end second pools have seen lower losses than subprime ones, Moody’s warned 2006 and 2007 vintage delinquencies and losses have been increasing. The firm expects 2006 vintage prime CES pools to lose about 13% of their original balance and 2007 vintage pools to lose about 17%, on average.
The outlook is also daunting for home-equity line of credit pools. Moody’s projects 2006 vintage transactions will, on average, lose around 24% and the 2007 vintage around 26%.
“Efforts to tighten lending standards appear to have had little effect so far, as reports of mortgage fraud increased 42 percent in the first quarter of 2008 from the same period of 2007.”
http://www.philly.com/inquirer/business/homepage/20080828_Mortgage-fraud_reports_are_up.html
“If you have equity in your home and we can price your house to sell, we can sell your home,”
Yes, the pendulum has swung. “If you have equity”. In the past it was all about qualified buyers. Fast forward, we can sell your home if you are a qualified seller. Bought in 2004-2006 or hel’d the pit to the max? Sorry, you’re not a qualified seller. Clot does not want your listing. He’ll work for the bank on that one.
Step 1; the seller must now prove that they are qualified before a serious, qualified buyer entertains the thought of negotiating.
What a bunch of terrorists!
#7 BC Bob: The realtor in the article talks about losing money if you bought in 2005,2006,2007. I think she should have added 2004, and 20003 as well.
3b (8)-
I have two sellers who are so far underwater, they can’t see the light.
When did they buy? 2003.
#10 clot: I am not surprised. It has always been my contention that prices would revert back to around 2002 levels, maybe lower.
3b [8],
In addition to this, she doesn’t include those that have tapped the well, bought 2nd and 3rd properties, hummers, bowling alleys or trips to Mars. The debt has exploded and the underlying asset is declining. The spreads are coming in rapidly. By the way, if you are selling you would prefer the spreads to be widening. Not comforting times to be offering at delusional limit prices. Realestate.com has died/is buried. The hole is being dug deeper.
um….Mets
There are other parts of the country that have probably hit bottom, but the NY Metro area is not one of them. Prices just started to decline around here and there are many dark clouds on the horizon. In this area we also have the investor and bank layoffs to deal with which will keep buyers out of the market along with the tighter lending practices.
people used to prefer GE than S&P index because of its well-run diversified business lines. now, with these guys are running NBC outlet, no way it can beat the index.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0808/12900.html
Investors do not have to be Wiped Out in Fannie and Freddie’s Recapitalizations(but if they are taxpayers will probably be wiped out, too!)
The whole problem, therefore, becomes do we nationalize the GSEs or privatize them? In a nationalization, shareholders get wiped out, management salaries are slashed, and we end up with three (or more) FHA-equivalents. In a privatization, shareholders eventually recover some value (although not the returns they experienced previously, when the GSEs shifted risk to the full faith and credit implicit guarantee) and we end up with four or five WAMU-sized mortgage firms and a couple more players in the private mortgage insurance market.
The nationalize or privatize decision, however, is not for the Treasury Secretary, but for Congress, to decide. In fact, socializing or privatizing $5 trillion of the housing sector in a $14 trillion economy should be a key election year campaign issue. Pity no one wants to address this crisis while half-baked regulatory measures create more investor uncertainty and market volatility.
macane is going to announce his veep pick by 10:00 am tomorrow. the final 3 will be ridge, romney and pawlenty. my bet is romney.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0808/12915.html
Sean O’Grady: Credit crunch: ‘It’s just the end of the beginning’
Here’s some “big picture” numbers on the state of the world’s financial system. According to ING, the total value of assets written down by Planet Earth’s big banks is $502bn. The total value of capital raised by the same: $351bn. That deficit, of $151bn could easily get much much bigger.
Will the banks be able to raise the capital required for them to regain their strength as losses mount? Now for the banks what we’ve seen is rather like suffering from a bad case of flu (sub-prime) and then catching a cold (normal downturn losses) on top. Result: financial pneumonia. For which the well-known cure is plenty of liquidity fed to the system by assiduous central banks (see the Bank of England’s patent Special Liquidity Scheme among other miracle cures) and a strong course of capital injections.
SG,
Sometimes I wonder if the banks should have just been weened off Fannie Mae as we recovered from the Great Depression after WWII. Rather than securitize mortgages, why not just fund bank reserves by encouraging more savings through higher rates or higher dividends?
bi: do you really want to “bet” on it?
http://www.intrade.com/
Have you guys heard about the Live Where you Work program from the NJ House and Mortgage Finance Agency?
I looked at some of their different programs and while some offer better rates than the people targetted could get otherwise. For instance they have a home preservation refinancing deal to help people facing foreclosure by giving 30 yr fixed rates of over 8%.
I’m still looking to see if I can find performance data on their programs.
Bill Clinton will not attend O’Drama’s Invesco speech tonight
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/08/26/bill-clinton-will-not-att_n_121647.html
Denver Offers Testing Ground for ‘Obama-nomics’
Apart from hosting the Democratic National Convention, Denver residents are also assessing the possible impacts of Sen. Barack Obama’s economic policies, including middle class tax cuts and investments in education and alternative energy. Paul Solman examines Obama’s plan.
Russia’s foreign exchange reserves rose by $400 million to stand at $581.5 billion during the week ending Aug. 22, the country’s central bank reported on Thursday. The slight increase in reserves follows a drop of $16.4 billion during the week from Aug. 8 to Aug. 15, the same week when the military conflict between Russia and Georgia broke out. That decline was one of the biggest weekly drops in reserves since the 1998 financial crisis. Russia has the third-largest reserves in the world after China and Japan
Our Enemies are back to stacking paper while we are running deficits and adding to our debt.
Not good in my book fellows.
Stu and I have arrived in sunny California. After we tire of touring the vineyards, I think we will try to tour the foreclosures. That should keep us busy for a few days.
Will Japan, print more money to buy the dollar?
From the FT.
Report of US currency rescue plan
By Krishna Guha in Washington
Published: August 28 2008 02:28 | Last updated: August 28 2008 02:28
The US, Europe and Japan discussed the possibility of co-ordinated currency intervention to support the dollar at the time of the Bear Stearns crisis in March, according to Japan’s Nikkei online.
The US Treasury declined to comment on the report, which also claimed that the G7 had considered issuing an emergency communiqué during the weekend of March 15 to March 16.
The Financial Times was unable independently to verify the Nikkei report. A G7 official said he understood that there were some preparations for possible currency intervention during that period, but did not comment on any international discussions.
As reported earlier in the FT, US and European policymakers have been concerned at various stages of the credit crisis about the possibility that, in an environment of persistent dollar weakness, a crisis at an individual financial institution could trigger a disorderly plunge in the US currency.
Such a disorderly decline would aggravate existing stress in other financial markets and could lead to foreign investors demanding a currency risk premium on all dollar assets, pushing up long-term US interest rates.
It would also increase the stain on economies such as the eurozone that have floating exchange rates, pushing up their own currencies to unsustainable levels.
This concern was acute at the time of the Bear Stearns crisis. G7 policymakers were in contact during the crisis and discussed potential spillovers in international markets.
However, in the event there was no emergency G7 statement. The G7 waited until their scheduled meeting on April 11 when they expressed concern about “sharp fluctuations in major currencies” and “their possible implications for economic and financial stability”. They added: “We continue to monitor exchange markets closely, and co-operate as appropriate.”
This statement marked a shift in international currency policy. Hank Paulson, US Treasury secretary, remained generally sceptical about currency intervention, but was careful not to rule it out in all circumstances.
Prior to March, US and European officials were at odds over currencies, with eurozone officials concerned about the decline of the dollar against the euro, but US officials broadly welcoming this as a prop to growth.
However, following the April 11 G7 meeting, US and European officials told the FT they were united in their support for a stronger dollar. Ben Bernanke, Federal Reserve chairman, joined Mr Paulson in talking in public about the US currency.
Policymakers believe that a crisis at a financial institution is less likely to trigger a run on the dollar in an environment of general dollar strength. A stronger dollar also helps to curb oil and inflation, and support confidence in US assets.
Without another Bear Stearns-style crisis, currency intervention remains unlikely, but if a similar crisis were to occur again and the dollar were to weaken precipitously, co-ordinated intervention is possible.
U.S. GDP moves to 3.3% on further review, could be strongest for some time. ODrama people is busy at modifying script for his tonight’s speech.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/second-quarter-us-gdp-surges-33/story.aspx?guid=%7B8BDE0870%2D2705%2D4534%2DA07C%2D8907F441720E%7D
ChiFI,
If some of my doom and gloom seems over done, its probably somewhat due to my job. A big part of my job consists of finding and demonstrating failure in systems that people thought were sound. (i.e i get paid to break $hit)
Once again, i am not a finance expert and am smart enough to not follow my own financial opinions; thats what my financial planner is for. Anyone on this board who would act on what i have to say should be involuntarily commited immediately!
You people may have laughed when I said to load up on Munis earlier this year, but the clock is ticking, Obama is going to kill the NE where a cop married to a teacher is considered rich in Obamas soak the rich scheme.
Aug. 28 (Bloomberg) — Wall Street has some election-year advice for its customers: load up on municipal bonds because income taxes for the wealthy are bound to rise.
With a record budget deficit of $482 billion awaiting the next president, strategists are betting Democrat Barack Obama and John McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee, will be forced to increase charges for top earners. That would boost the value of the tax exemption on income from state and local government debt, which has eroded since Ronald Reagan made cuts a pillar of his administration when he took office in 1981.
“Tax rates are going to be higher no matter who’s elected,” said Craig Elder, the fixed-income analyst in the private wealth division at Milwaukee-based Robert W. Baird & Co., which oversees $60 billion for individuals. “If you’re in the top tax bracket, munis are your strong buy right now.”
Obama, who was formally nominated at the Democratic National Convention in Denver yesterday, plans to boost costs for couples earning more than $250,000 a year by rolling back the highest two brackets to where they were before President George W. Bush’s tax cuts were passed in 2001 and 2003. The top rate will return to 39.6 percent, according to Obama’s campaign Web site.
bi:
You seem pretty against Obama for pres. I think you are fighting an uphill battle for McCain. What do you think are McCain’s chances are for winning the election?
My guess is about 40%. Like what was on that website.
ChiFi ,
just consider me the balance to Re101, feel free to consider me an equal crank, just on the opposite end of the spectrum :)
bi,
Why don’t you post your political rantings to a POLITICAL blog?
International Forecaster August 2008 (#8) – Gold, Silver, Economy
What kind of economic agenda will we end up with this time? Will it be tax and spend (which is usually characteristic of Jackasses), or spend and inflate (which is usually characteristic of Dumbos)?
The economy is being kept afloat and the raging debt liquidation has thus far been neutralized. That will not continue indefinitely. Creating money and credit is a drug on the economy that does little to improve the economy.
Until the truth is told to the people there will be no solution. Every dollar’s worth of money and credit created compounds the problem. As long as we allow Wall Street to rule the American people we are headed toward disaster. Our entire society is now designed to enrich the rich, at the expense of most of Americans. We are allowing the Illuminists to destroy us.
[28]
This is a political blog (of sorts). At least where politics intersect or influence real estate and economics.
And bi’s posts don’t seem like much of a rant. Not yet, at least.
The Merits of Staying in Cash
Over the next two years, we are going to see increased foreclosure activity, especially in 2009/2010, as the Option ARM loans begin to default. The housing market has little to no chance of recovering until mid-2010 or later. More likely, we are looking at 2012 for a true recovery. Even then, it is not likely that we will ever see the go-go days of the housing bubble again. So, the housing ATM, which fueled a lot of America’s extravagant spending spree, over the past 8 years, has closed down permanently. In addition, at some point, soon, interest rates will have to be raised, or the U.S. dollar will utterly collapse. Since the powers-that-be don’t want that to happen, rates will go up fast. This will push the nation into severe recession.
The bottom line…we are unlikely to see any recovery for many years. The actions of the Federal Reserve and Congress have put off the day of reckoning, but it will come, and because they have both expended money they don’t really have, that reckoning will be that much more severe than if they had allowed it to come naturally.
bi 25
to bad those numbers are fudged.
we have been in negative territory for 2+ years now.
http://tinyurl.com/6gx8e2
How about NY now having their own WARN Act? What does this say about what the government’s view of the future economy?
http://readme.readmedia.com/news/show/Media-Advisory/270715
“And bi’s posts don’t seem like much of a rant. Not yet, at least.”
Nom – I would think most, if not all, of Bi’s political posts are reminiscent of Page 3 articles of tabloids – O-bama’s brother found in Kenya, O-bama likes Arugula etc.
I would find it germane to the discussions over here if he posted about O-bama’s proposed economic policies versus Mccane’s.
From the Los Angeles Times
FBI saw threat of mortgage crisisA top official warned of widening loan fraud in 2004, but the agency focused its resources elsewhere.
http://www.newsday.com/business/la-bzfbi0825,0,5482849.story
Five Things You Need to Know: Now, It’s Main Street’s Turn
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/index/a/18698
Just want to follow up on Clot’s very informative post last night re: FHA loans
**********
- The jumbo (417K+) market is toast; both FHA and agency. In the case of FHA, the secondary market doesn’t want to touch them. Hence, you see lots of outright rejections, as well as add-ons, penalties and premiums.
- FHA’s own guidelines actually have no minimum FICO qualification standards. However, the secondary market has imposed its own, at about the 580 level. Another crimp that the secondary market has put on the pipeline involves FHA’s 203K “rehab” loans. Originators love to talk this up, but I have yet to see one correspondent who will actually underwrite one of these deals.
*********
So, sub-417k, people are still qualifying for 3% down mortgages will less than stellar FICO scores? If this is true, then in most of the country the game is virtually the same as it was during the bubble.
Contrast this with what your info above implies is the case with high cost areas such as ours: drastically curtailed credit above $417k mortgages, significant downpayment requirement (10%+?), very strict FICO standard (above 700?), full documentation of income and assets.
Is this assessment accurate?
3b (8)-
I don’t think prices have fallen much in the Somerset, Piscataway, Edison area. Many of the 500k+ houses are still above their 2004/2005 levels and selling.
Bids are strong, even on competitively (not aggressively) priced dumps. For example, I went to an open house in Piscataway 2 weeks ago on a 2600 sq ft., 4bdrm, 2.5ba center hall colonial on about .20 acres facing an abandoned house. Unfinished basement. The whole house needed a complete makeover to make it liveable. Yes, liveable. From the carpets to the paint to the cracks in the sinks, it seemed as if the existing owner just didn’t care to maintain it.
Regardless, it was priced at 429k. I bid 435k with the idea that I’d put in 50k of work resulting in hopefully a 485k total value. The seller’s agent spoke to my agent and quickly informed him that 3 other bids came in topping ours. I backed off.
Case closed. People in central jersey still have money and they are still bidding on dumps! (Guilty, but not stupid)
if the above is true, I think this implies that high cost areas such as ours are in for disproportionate percentage drops in prices going forward
34#, vic,
any media media has better jounalism than national enquirer? without national equirer, edwards is in denver asking you donate your money and ask us to pay more tax for his hungry mistress, living in $3M paid by his campaign manger. don’t you think it is irrelevant to economy?
>Nom – I would think most, if not all, of Bi’s political posts are reminiscent of Page 3 articles of tabloids
39#, if a guy who is making millions doesn’t want to help his brother who is living $1 month, how can you expect him to help you as dems pitched this all week in denver?
> – O-bama’s brother found in Kenya, O-bama likes Arugula etc.
pretty cool – Gustav
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/specials/interactives/hurricanetracker07/trackerindex.html?SITE=YAHOO&SECTION=SPECIAL
Skep
I’ll re-post the email below that I received yesterday from a realtor friend which seems to jive with what Clot is saying. I sent her an email asking about credit availabiltiy.
“Mortgages are still being awarded to those credit worthy buyers without a problem. I personally have my buyers double checked with our in-house mortgage just in case the other mortgage companies do not perform & go under while we are in contract waiting to close. Other sellers require their own mortgage company to verify. Sometimes, I let the other agent call our Financial Manager for peace of mind.
Our mortage preapproval process requires SS# & job history. Credit is run and verified.
Many companies have closed and the big firms have their share of problems. Unlike before, 100% financing is no longer available. First Time buyers are required at least 3% down. There are some govt programs that assist with closing costs or down payment if they qualify.”
As you say, credit has tightened a little, but it’s not yet dire unless you need a jumbo. Verification and double checking seems to be on the rise, thankfull.
I’d rather have a president who tells his deadbeat brother to go get a job rather than help him out.
bi
have you driven around baghdad lately without an escort.
NJGator Says:
August 28th, 2008 at 9:24 am
Stu and I have arrived in sunny California. After we tire of touring the vineyards, I think we will try to tour the foreclosures. That should keep us busy for a few days.
go here….
http://www.silveradovineyards.com/index.html
also…make an appointment and go here…
http://www.seaveyvineyard.com/seavey/index.jsp
For Bi
http://tinyurl.com/5zyzpb
avoid…great wine and reputation, but a ripoff as a visiting location
http://www.stagsleap.com/
nice change of pace….
http://mummnapa.com/index.cfm?
unpretentious….
http://www.turnbullwines.com/turnbull/index.jsp
these guys are hilarious…
http://www.frogsleap.com/flash/intro.html
Re: mccane’s VP pick
wow! drudge opinion poll shows 49% thinks it is romney. it would be a big surprise if not.
We love you Chifi!
#49 CF
When I lived in SF we drove to Mumm to buy the $13 special by the case. Every Sunday morning we would cure the hangovers with Mimosas in the complex Hot tub.
I miss California.
If you have a chance in Napa visit http://www.closduval.com/ they have a great 2005 Cabernet also try the 2003 also and the Vineyard is really beautiful a classic French style,check out the swallows that roost at their wine tasting store, makes for some great pictures one of which I framed and hung up on the wall after my last visit.
PGC Says:
August 28th, 2008 at 11:06 am
#49 CF When I lived in SF we drove to Mumm to buy the $13 special by the case. Every Sunday morning we would cure the hangovers with Mimosas in the complex Hot tub.
I miss California.
PGC: Napa is a unique place.
It was kind of bizarre being in Sacrameno were it was 105 degrees, driving to Napa after breakfast where it was high 80′s, and then being in SF the following day where the high was 61.
PGC: Do you agree with some of my recommendations? Leave it to a NY’er to think that after they visit a place once, then they are an authority.
Also, I am looking for clot to weigh in here…
#14
there was an interesting article on Olberman in the New Yorker a couple of weeks ago. Apparently, he was widely disliked at ESPN as well.
I wasn’t that into wine/food back then as I am now, so it was a little bit wasted on me (as was most of SF).
For the most I stuck to Mumm, Beringer and Rutherford Grove. We didn’t adventure too far off the beaten track. Some of the smaller places were very pretentious with what we thought as overpriced wine. Maybe if I went back I would appreciate the difference in quality at the higher price points…. ;*)
And bi’s posts don’t seem like much of a rant.
Ummm…
edwards is in denver asking you donate your money and ask us to pay more tax for his hungry mistress, living in $3M paid by his campaign manger.
test
I won’t even look at a house that was bought from 2004-2006 and now on the market. Waste of my time and I’ve told realtors this. Still, I’ve actually had realtors tell ME the SELLERS TERMS in rcent months, despite the buyers market. My fav was the seller with the POS craftsman bought 2 years earlier, not a lick of updates or taste put back into it, 100K over priced and seller would only entertain offers that waived the mortgage contingency. Yah.
http://cgi.ebay.com/ebaymotors/1973-AMC-Hornet-4-door-sedan_W0QQitemZ300252329574QQihZ020QQcategoryZ5357QQssPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem
I found my dream car!
# 1
“New Jersey has lost more than 14,100 jobs this year through July, when the unemployment rate edged up to 5.4 percent — compared with 4.2 percent a year ago.”
Edged? Edged! That is a 29% increase. If the cost of cars went up 29%, they would not say “edged.”
“wow! drudge opinion poll shows 49% thinks it is romney. it would be a big surprise if not.”
Romney would be a perfect choice. Two multimillionaires to head the party that looks after the best interests of multimillionaires.
save that word for PBRs.
chicagofinance Says:
August 28th, 2008 at 10:57 am
unpretentious….
http://www.turnbullwines.com/turnbull/index.jsp
Thanks for the great recs. Stu and I have both been here before, but we’ve never been to lots of the places suggested. We’re looking forward to trying new things.
Stu, because he is a contrarian and anti-fashionista is still drinking Merlot.
It’s shaping up to be a beautiful, sunny relaxing day.
We’ll report back on any new suggestions of our own.
Mitt Romney? We need to build some extra bedrooms for all his wives.
Mccain better pick someone good. I can’t vote for Obama as he is only for the poor and the already wealthy. Obama made most of his money during the bush years and lucked out and now that most of his income is tax free in the way of free housing, jets, food, limos etc. the next 8 years he wants to tax the working folk. But the rich who aren’t working any more won’t get taxed on their assets.
# 56
Unless Mc-Ca-in choses either Ridge or Whitman, I fear he is toast. He NEEDS to have to far right ticked off at him in order to show independence from B-ush. Also, R-idge can bring PA, which he needs. Whit-man brings with her anti-bush background (despite serving him awhile) and gives Dem women a good reason to cross over and vote R.
67. Get back to work John….those TPS reports are not gonna write themselves.
all of M’s VP picks have flaws, just as all of O’s did. I personally think Romney is the best of the bunch, if only because with him you will have 1 person in the race (out of 4) who actually understands business
69#, SC, nobody said anything about bloomberg, who is multibillionare.
what wrong with people who enjoyed financial success? this is america.
I found my dream car!
I may have owned that Hornet…although the miles listed are probably 100,000 off. The biggest 6 cylinder I ever saw. The air conditioning had a ‘desert’ setting.
The 14,000 finance jobs are ratcheting up each month from here on out. And with reduced bonus payouts to the “soldier” ranks (and maybe even to the General’s ranks), that industry has been decimated. Not much support for RE prices from that group.
Add all of this to the 80K – 90K high tech jobs lost in 2002…..and NJ has taken a step back in jobs status.
72#, shore, unless karl rove or rush is organizing people to hit drudge report, this 49% means this is what rep-leaning folks want. btw, biden was the highest (about 30%) in the same poll.
i agree ridge and whitman will add PA, NJ and hillary supporters in play. romney may bring in michigan and colorado mormons besides his financial background.
keep in mind that during campaign the official job title for vp candidate is “attack dog”. after watching a few video clips, i feel romney is the best match on biden.
Shhhh….don’t tell Pret…not that any of us has a clue where he is…..note the source…RECRUITERS?!?!
WSJ
Heavier Ax for Wall Street? Poor Credit Conditions, Steady Drip of Firings Suggest More Pain in Fall
August 28, 2008; Page C12
The securities industry pays well, but employment is highly volatile. And autumn is typically the season of greatest sadness. Horrid credit conditions and this summer’s steady drip of firings suggest the ax will fall with full force when Wall Street hobbles back to business after Labor Day.
Despite news ranging from layoffs, to hiring freezes, to bans on color copying, the official jobs figures don’t yet show major stress. Employment in the industry actually rose 0.4% in the second quarter from the first, according to Department of Labor statistics. But this is cold comfort, as there is a lag between the announcements of layoffs and their appearance in government figures.
Moreover, the bloodletting appears to have grown heavier since the end of June. This is worrying. Employers typically don’t cut many jobs in the summer. A study by human-resources firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas suggests firings over the past 15 years, on average, were 18% lower in the summer than in the spring.
Employers typically then pick up the pace in the fall as budgets for the following year come in tighter — sackings ramp up 30% from the summer. It is only somewhat coincidental that fewer mouths mean bigger bonuses for those who remain.
How bad could it get? Many recruiters claim this may be the direst financial crisis in decades. And the longer the crunch lasts, the better the chances become that this crack could cause Wall Street even more pain than the big downturn of the early 1970s.
About 17% of securities industry workers lost their jobs from 1972 through 1974. In New York City, nearly one in four did. Smart bankers should start squirreling away those nuts before the cold snap hits.
Hornet, Maverick, Gremlin, Dart could run rings around a 100K Lexus in terms of durability. My first cousin had a mad love affair with her freshman year used Gremlin and drove it until she was 40. Finally, the Legal Dept at her IB became aware of her Gremlin and it was career suicide so it had to go. My brother’s father in law had this Damm ugly hornet that he sold to a neighbor with 500K miles, damm neighbor drove it another 10 years before he sold it running to someone else. You could yank that big old six out with a winch rebuild and shove it back in before lunch. My brothers 1975 Pacer however was a lemon. The only funny thing was the passenger door was longer than the drivers door and when I got out on busy middle neck road in Great Neck if you were not careful you would knock at least three old jewish ladies on the sidewalk right off their walkers.
Speaking of oldies, I yanked my 1975 450sl out of the garage after 7 years of sitting under lawn furniture and assorted garbage and I am driving it to the station every day. I swear that old beast could make it there another 20 years or until the drivers seat falls through to the street.
I tell you I bought the 2009 Car book and at best 2 or three models excite me. Nothing Japanese or Korean does it for me. There are literally hundreds of cars to choose from in 2009 as compared to a handfull of models in 1969 but the 1969 year had a wider selection of knock out cars.
Chi,
Perhaps Pret already got the ax?
Gold Isn’t the Euro – It’s the Standard
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/gold-euro-dollar-currency-Standard-ifo/index/a/18719
keep in mind that during campaign the official job title for vp candidate is “attack dog”. after watching a few video clips, i feel romney is the best match on biden.
Romney: McCain earned his homes; Obama didn’t
Yep, sharp as a tack.
It seems that the number of posts has declined. Normally I’m up to my eyes in posts.
Ahh well tomorrow is a new day…and the day after that is a three day weekend! Looks like some are already enjoying it early.
We know who you 5 day weekenders are. The gig is up.
http://www.boston.com/realestate/news/articles/2008/08/27/bay_state_home_prices_still_sliding/?rss_id=Boston Globe — Today’s paper A to Z
boston homes are crashing.
OT: Anyone has suggestions on brand for LCD TV? I feel like, I am the last one left without LCD HDTV in my group of friends.
Question of the day, so I am in the mall earlier this week and I see lots of indian women in traditional gear with the dot on their forehead etc. What the heck are they buying, they can buy clothes their and can’t eat the food their. I saw a few near the underware rack at JC Penny which I get but why did the two moms need to bring there five kids and four grandparents with them to buy plain old JCP white underware? Haven’t they heard of the internet?
#85 – I’ve had a Samsung for a few years now and it has been great.
“SG Says:
August 28th, 2008 at 2:05 pm
OT: Anyone has suggestions on brand for LCD TV? I feel like, I am the last one left without LCD HDTV in my group of friends.”
Who said consumerism was dead?
My tv only goes up to channel 37 and was built in 1982.
SG Says:
August 28th, 2008 at 2:05 pm
OT: Anyone has suggestions on brand for LCD TV? I feel like, I am the last one left without LCD HDTV in my group of friends.
“69#, SC, nobody said anything about bloomberg, who is multibillionare.
what wrong with people who enjoyed financial success? this is america.”
Every politician in Washington is a multimillionaire. The difference is, Bloomberg became a politician after he made all his money. Most of these guys in Washington become rich because of their position of power.
I feel like, I am the last one left without LCD HDTV in my group of friends.
I too am without one. Debating getting one with a wall mount due to the now-standing young one.
re: #85 SG – Samsung is the leader of the pack right now on LCD as far as price and quality, I picked mime up on Amazon.com for a substantial discount.
You can get pretty unbiased opinions here.
http://www.avforums.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=367
SG,
Sony Samsung and Sharp are all good.
You want 1080p (if 42 inches or larger) and 120Hz refresh. Also the contrast ratio (black level) is probably the most important stat the TV will have. If the TV is less than 42 inches you can safely and cheaply defer to 720p. My cousin just bought a great 720p 42 incher for $699.
Saving money is important but without a great TV to watch college football (starting tonight to boot) life is not worth living.
SG correction try avsforums.com for the USA.
avforums.com is in Europe.
SG:
Wait for Circuit City to go under.
We used to have this TV with the manual crank. It had some spring mechanism to make turning easier.
We turned the channel so many times between 3 and 12 so many times (three was how you accessed the UHF channels, and the dial went to 13 I believe) that the TV broke. Someone who didn’t want to watch 12 would walk up and spin the dial so fast that it wore away the stopping mechanism. Then they would spin the UHF dial through 50 channels to find the one they wanted.
Soon enough the TV only would show two VHF channels, and two UHF because if you tried to stop inbetween it would just automatically change stations till it ended on one of the four channels.
Soul Train and Voltron are good character builders, everything else was just fluff in the 80s
In the spirit of the long weekend, any suggestions for a day trip in NJ/NY area?
LCD vs. Plasma?
http://www.lcdtvbuyingguide.com/lcdtv-plasmavslcd.shtml
This may be a good export opportunity for Bloomberg & NYC:
PHNOM PENH (Reuters) – The price of rat meat has quadrupled in Cambodia this year as inflation has put other meat beyond the reach of poor people, officials said on Wednesday.
With consumer price inflation at 37 percent according to the latest central bank estimate, demand has pushed a kilogram of rat meat up to around 5,000 riel ($1.28) from 1,200 riel last year.
Spicy field rat dishes with garlic thrown in have become particularly popular at a time when beef costs 20,000 riel a kg.
If there is a GTG for Schiller in Pennsylvania next month we should ask him why Boston was reported to have months of gains but all indicators show that it is in the toilet.
I would make time in my schedule for that.
:::Breathlessly:::
Hurry up with those big screen TV recommendations!! As soon as my HELOC is approved, I’m rushing out to buy me one of them there Plasmums!!
I have a Sharp Aquos and think it’s great.
I have a 61 inch JVC DPL. HD channels come in real nice. Damn thing is half of what it cost me two years ago.
Victorian Says:
August 28th, 2008 at 2:22 pm
SG: Wait for Circuit City to go under.
When my wife and I renovated our condo in Hoboken in 2000, we picked clean the old Tops Appliance liquidation on Route 440 in JC. We bought all top of the line (before stainless steel) GE stuff and a Maytag dishwasher for something like $1200, and also a pair of in-sleeve room air conditioners for $300 each.
I still get a big Booya even thinking about it.
FYI – the presumptive retirees with the Hummer that I was whining about last week…..late data addition. Their stove went, so they just bought a new stove for $2900 on a store credit card.
#103 – All of them (LCD, plasma and DLP) have come down substantially in the past year. I’m waiting on the OLEDs as an upgrade but large versions are still distant and expensive. At this point though I watch so little tv that I’m not sure it would be worth it.
My current flat panel is really just a big monitor for my Mac Mini that I use as a media center. All that hi-resolution is a bit wasted on Itunes and bit-torrented video.
SG
I bought a Samsung LCD, got it at Sears which had the best prices around me at the time. Also got 1 year no interest but I paid it off in two months.
The quality is great, picture is beautiful, I wantch a lot of sports and the games look awesome. Only complaint is that the remote sucks.
As i was shopping, i remember thinking the Sharps were the best but they do come at a premium.
I bought a 50″ Samsung DLP about 5 years back. I had some initial problems, but the service was great. This little Asian guy came to my house about 5 times, he brought back new parts, replaced the screen, etc etc. He gave me his personal cell phone # so I didn’t have to go through the 1-800#. He would always take his shoes off when he went downstairs so he didn’t get my rug dirty. He was a funny little dude, and he fixed it.
I haven’t had any problems since, and I’ve heard some nightmare service stories from other companies. I’ll buy Samsung again just for the peace of mind.
Lehman Said to Be Poised to Eliminate as Many as 1,000 Jobs
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aaxtpXvqNXGc&refer=home
Do yourself a big favor go buy a panasonic plasma from 6th ave in jersey city, the 42in 720P viera is like $750 and has 3.5% sales tax, the picture is pretty good and even regular cable looks good not something I can say for the LCD models.
Make that 1500
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/29/business/29wall.html?_r=2&ref=business&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
So CIT did a big house cleaning today, lot of people let go. Thing I don’t get is the severance. A guy I know who is only there two years got 12 months pay. Why a company in such trouble would be so generous is beyond me, but than again it is just the shareholders money.
jcer,
I believe my buddy has that same Panasonic. Football looks sick on his tv, I’m always amazed at the bang for the buck.
I love that type of service but I can’t get my wife to take care of the servicemen that way.
Doyle Says:
August 28th, 2008 at 2:44 pm
I bought a 50″ Samsung DLP about 5 years back. I had some initial problems, but the service was great. This little Asian guy came to my house about 5 times, he brought back new parts, replaced the screen, etc etc. He gave me his personal cell phone # so I didn’t have to go through the 1-800#. He would always take his shoes off when he went downstairs so he didn’t get my rug dirty. He was a funny little dude, and he fixed it.
I haven’t had any problems since, and I’ve heard some nightmare service stories from other companies. I’ll buy Samsung again just for the peace of mind.
Yeah great tv’s and they don’t break like some others, if you are going to buy an LCD go with either Samsung or LG best bang for the buck, the Sharp Aquos is really nice but more money.
Touche John, touche… although I was confident that the 4’11″ Asian guy with his belt wrapped around him 3 times wasn’t working my wifie.
The painter on the other hand…
I love that type of service but I can’t get my wife to take care of the servicemen that way.
Johnny,
Perhaps that’s also the reason your Mexican landscaper keeps sh*tting in your yard. A little effort by the wifie would probably remedy that situation.
Did the little asian guy actually crawl inside your TV and did he have a flat head?
But my tomatos look great this year and taste a bit like salsa.
Doyle Says:
August 28th, 2008 at 3:02 pm
I love that type of service but I can’t get my wife to take care of the servicemen that way.
Johnny,
Perhaps that’s also the reason your Mexican landscaper keeps sh*tting in your yard. A little effort by the wifie would probably remedy that situation.
Regarding a comment by ChiFi last night
i wager that one of the big boys (Wachovia, WAMU?) will go down by Xmas and take out a substantial chunk of the FDIC holdings. just to put things into perspective, the amount of write downs so far has been more then the total cost of the S&L debacle and we arent even talking about bailouts yet such as fannie, freddie, FDIC etc.
ket: I hate to sound flippant, but SO WHAT? I get the feeling that some people are going to find themselves flat-footed at the wrong time…….read: stop lacing your tea leaves with arsenic….
CHiFI,
, SO What? is a legitimate question. We each look at the situation biased by our particular backgrounds. You are an investment guy and i do systems analysis and testing. I look at this mess from a systems stand point and see multiple weaknesses and points of failure. Every week we hear about a new bottom when the the major components haven’t even failed yet.
I reference the S&L crisis as an example to illustrate magnitude. The S&L crisis cost 320 Billion and the FDIC didnt need to borrow money from the treasury until the very end of the crisis. There are already calls that the FDIC will need 500 billion from the treasury and we have only had 12 failed banks. The FDIC watch list only has 100 banks on it, but 1000 failed during S&L.
The FDIC Needs $500 Billion Backstop: Whalen
Whats my point? My point is that the magnitude of this event is grossly understated. I cannot speak to investing in this environment as i have no expertise in such matters and am not suggesting how one might position themselves financially.
Chifi,
the neat thing about arsenic in your tea is that if you dose yourself properly over time, you can then survive what would be a lethal dose to most people!!!
a crisis at an individual financial institution could trigger a disorderly plunge in the US currency
The US, Europe and Japan discussed the possibility of co-ordinated currency intervention to support the dollar at the time of the Bear Stearns crisis in March, according to Japan’s Nikkei online.
The US Treasury declined to comment on the report, which also claimed that the G7 had considered issuing an emergency communiqué during the weekend of March 15 to March 16. The Financial Times was unable independently to verify the Nikkei report. A G7 official said he understood that there were some preparations for possible currency intervention during that period, but did not comment on any international discussions.
As reported earlier in the FT, US and European policymakers have been concerned at various stages of the credit crisis about the possibility that, in an environment of persistent dollar weakness, a crisis at an individual financial institution could trigger a disorderly plunge in the US currency.
Such a disorderly decline would aggravate existing stress in other financial markets and could lead to foreign investors demanding a currency risk premium on all dollar assets, pushing up long-term US interest rates. It would also increase the stain on economies such as the eurozone that have floating exchange rates, pushing up their own currencies to unsustainable levels.
Negative real interest rates
All Federal Reserve board members reportedly want to raise interest rates — albeit not just yet. Reason: behind the growth slowdown, real interest rates have turned dramatically negative.
Real interest rates are nominal interest rates less inflation. Negative real rates mean if you hold cash, and often all other financial assets as well, you’re actually losing purchasing power. Negative real rates are often interpreted as a loss of confidence in the economy — and a sign that inflation is getting out of control.
This week’s release of minutes from the Fed’s Aug. 5 meeting suggested more worry about the economy than did the Fed’s policy statement at the time. But the fact that all Fed members think the next interest rate move should be up, and that a vocal minority think monetary policy is already too loose, is at least as significant.
#41 I am not buyting it.
Spain’s banking sector could be facing a death blow
Sometimes it’s the most innocuous-looking headlines that spell the most trouble.
With most papers leading on “here comes the recession”-type stories, it would be very easy to overlook the report on page five of yesterday’s FT that the “ECB is to tackle abuse of liquidity aid”. And no wonder. The story sounds either a) very technical or b) something about the financial equivalent of binge drinking.
But there’s a bombshell being delivered here – the European Central Bank is about to stop bailing out eurozone commercial banks. And that could mean another big lender going ‘bust’. Time to reach for your tin hat again… The ECB is about to stop bailing out eurozone commercial banks.negative.
Real interest rates are nominal interest rates less inflation. Negative real rates mean if you hold cash, and often all other financial assets as well, you’re actually losing purchasing power. Negative real rates are often interpreted as a loss of confidence in the economy — and a sign that inflation is getting out of control.
This week’s release of minutes from the Fed’s Aug. 5 meeting suggested more worry about the economy than did the Fed’s policy statement at the time. But the fact that all Fed members think the next interest rate move should be up, and that a vocal minority think monetary policy is already too loose, is at least as significant.
Lehman, the Tooth Fairy and the Revenge of the Short-Sellers
Posted by Heidi N. Moore
The market responded with enthusiasm to reports that the Tooth Fairy has agreed to acquire Lehman. The purchase price has not yet been determined and will be set by Dick Fuld wishing upon a star, clicking his heels three times, and being transported back to that magical place where Lehman still sells for over $70 per share.
In related news, Lehman has agreed to sell all of its level III capital, including CDOs, ABSs, pet rocks, baseball cards, slightly used condoms, and credit default swaps written by MBIA and Ambac. Lehman’s level III capital will be acquired for 150% of its face value by Tinkerbell, who will carry it off to Neverland to be fed to a crocodile.
Lehman is financing 90% of the acquisition at an interest rate that has not been announced; Tinkerbell’s up-front payment consists of a handful of pixie dust, three crickets, and a bullfrog. Analyst Dick Bove estimates that the bullfrog could eventually be transformed into three princes and a pumpkin coach.
The deal gives Lehman no recourse to any of Tinkerbell’s assets other than the Level III capital. If Tinkerbell defaults, Lehman’s successor entity will stick its hand down the crocodile’s throat and attempt to get it to regurgitate. The firm’s historical value-at-risk analysis shows that sticking your hand down a crocodile’s throat is completely safe.
Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson issued a statement: “I am delighted that SWFs (Sovereign Wealth Fairies) continue to express confidence in the terrific values represented by American financial institutions. As I have been saying since August of 2007, this shows that the crisis is now over.”
Meanwhile, the SEC has announced an investigation of mean, evil, bad short-seller David Einhorn. While out for a beer with a friend, Einhorn reportedly suggested that the Tooth Fairy does not exist and that wishing upon a star is not a wholly reliable price discovery mechanism.
Christopher Cox, chairman of the SEC, said, “Vicious rumors attacking the Tooth Fairy will not be tolerated. Our entire financial system and indeed the American way of life depend on the Tooth Fairy and wishing upon a star. How else could one value level III capital appropriately?” The SEC is reportedly planning to set up re-education camps for short-sellers.
Gustac update… :)
Guns and Gustav
We just got a call from Devline Rossell, a charter captain based out of Venice, Louisiana. He was shopping in New Orleans to get some supplies before the arrival of Gustav (currently listed as a tropical storm that has left at least 22 dead in the Caribbean) and reported that the item most in demand was not food, clothing or shelter.
“I just left a sporting goods store and you would think that the number-one selling item would be plywood or potable water or gasoline right now,” he said. “Apparently it is AR-15s and .223 ammo. I watched at least 20 people buy AR-15s and cases of .223.”
Can’t say I’m surprised. After the nightmare that was Katrina I think it would be unwise for anyone to assume the state, local or federal government could guarantee his or her personal safety during a natural disaster. Of course, I think it is foolish to assume that under any circumstance.
The AR buying spree demonstrates that people don’t think of it as an “assault weapon” but rather an arm that is ideally suited for self-defense, which it is. I also suspect that for some of the folks this is their first firearm. Goes to show that not only is there no such thing as an atheist in a foxhole but that there is no such thing as a gun-control advocate in one either.
—John Snow
bi-curious,
obama is speaking 2 blocks from my house tonight, i’ll take a picture for you.
128 in mod?
SG,
I’m in the same boat with the TV but after watching i.o.u.s.a I fee like I should start paying down my $180,000 debt the government has put me in.
#100
“If there is a GTG for Schiller in Pennsylvania next month we should ask him why Boston was reported to have months of gains but all indicators show that it is in the toilet.
I would make time in my schedule for that.”
I think the difference is that year over year Boston has declined substantially, but month over month or quarter over quarter for the period Schiller looked at, it went up slightly. I think this just probably reflected normal seasonality. The interesting thing is that most metro areas went down QoverQ despite the normal seasonal upward momentum
Thats some funny stuff Kettle
re: TVs
I still have a 20 inch Sony from 1996. All remotes stopped working on it a year ago. I was thinking about buying a new flat screen then, but I decided to hoard cash instead due to the impending sense of dread I get from visiting this site too much.
The funny this is that I have surround sound set up on this crappy little TV. When I got cable installed earlier this year, the cable guy could not believe I had surround sound. Then again, he had one of those tricked out Honda Civics, but I don’t think he appreciated the irony.
If you don’t watch sports and are not a movie buff then I totally agree a larger TV is nothing more than wasted $$ better spent elsewhere. But if you love sports then a large HD is a must. I bought my first one in 2000 and have never looked back. It is my only indulgence and well worth it.
It really is something most of us look at every day , it is much smaller, and hi-def is great for movies and sports, now at ~$1000 I can’t imagine not having one. I have a JVC D-ILA rear projection tv and love it can’t quite bring myself to replace my bedroom tv though.
New developments on Gustav
http://tinyurl.com/69b4pn
Raising interest rates sounds like a good thing for us fence sitters, the interest we earn on our downpayment rises and lets us enjoy compounding while higher rates drive down home prices. Sounds great.
Bring back 5% money markets and 8% 30 year bonds.
For half a century, the Jets have enjoyed a heroic and deeply devoted fan base. Through thick and thin, you have stuck with us as we have migrated around the metropolitan area from one field to another, to another. Of course you are hungry for – and deserve – another championship. But you also deserve a home that you can call your own. Our goal with the New Jets Stadium is to create the best home field in football and provide a range of seating options so that Jets fans can enjoy the biggest upgrade in NFL history. In 2010 that goal will be realized, when all Jets fans can say, finally, we’re the home team.
While a PSL program is necessary to help finance this new building, we listened to our fans in designing the plan. We recognize that PSL ownership is not for everyone. That is why we decided to have no PSLs in the entire Upper Bowl – 27,000 seats including those on the 50-yard line. It is important to us that every season ticket holder who wants to buy a seat in the new building may do so. Seat selection priority will be based on how long a fan has been a season ticket holder. There are three options we are offering: No PSLs in the Upper Bowl, PSL ownership in the Lower Bowl and Mezzanine end zones and Club Member PSLs that include membership in one of four different clubs.
Membership in the Coaches Club, located between the 40-yard lines behind the Jets bench, will be sold in an auction open to anyone, giving every Jets fan the opportunity to bid on the 2,000 best seats in the house. Those who become members of the Coaches Club will have unique amenities and unprecedented access including on-field behind the Jets bench, complimentary premium parking, the ability to watch the post-game press conference live from inside the club area and other amenities. A seat in the Coaches Club is the closest thing to having a spot on the roster.
Those fans who choose to become PSL owners will enjoy benefits far beyond their wider, more comfortable premium seats. PSL ownership includes the right to buy VIP reserved parking closer to the stadium, access to tickets to other events and concerts in the building (subject to availability), and the ability to finance their PSL over a five-year period.
Stu and Gator Live Blogging the Napa Valley Part 1:
Started te day of by touring and tasting at Chappellet’s Pritchard Hill Vineyard. Way off the beaten path, but worth the trip. Gorgeous hillside grounds $15 tasting fee. Stu and I purchased a 2005 Zinfandel and a 200f Mountain Cuevee.
Next stop was Frog’s Leap. Stu bravely disrgarded the Tours and Tasting By Appointment sign and we were treated to a lovely freeglass of Merlot and a walk through the beautiful vegetable gardens, where we were able to get some free munchies to fortify us for our next stop. We purchased one bottle of Merlot.
Next stop is Anderson’s Conn Valley, which we wll report back on later. they make an excellent Cab available for sale at the Wine Library for a very reasonable $24.98.
But if you love sports then a large HD is a must.
Every time I see a Giants game on my folks plasma screen, I weep.
I almost don’t want one in the house.
Napa Valley Live Blog Part 2
Eureka! We have found the best free tasting in the Napa Valley. At Anderson’s Conn Valley we got a personal tour from the Al Gor hating Hummer driving owner. We were treated to tastings of a $500 bottle of wine in their caves. We purchased 2 bottles of their Sauvignon Blanc and 2 bottles of their Pinot Noir (best we ever had of both).
Heading South into Napa now for tastings at Signorello, Silverado and Trefethen.
Tonight I make Stu try highly rated, over priced vegetarian fare at Ubuntu.
More later.
Bring on the higher interest rates, those of us with 20-30% DP’s are in good shape, prices are wholly correlated to payments. So prices are driven down and my 20% at todays price is 35% at tomorrows price.
Thx for TV advice.
more cool hurricane maps
http://www.stormpulse.com/tropical-storm-gustav-2008
Vizio 42 inch at Costco.
Love it.
So we prepay our heating oil and we received our bill for this winter. It’s 60% higher than last year. I’m going to shop around but I really like the service of my existing company. I can’t believe it.
Bi- if I vote for your guy, will he let me drill for oil in my yard?
where is NJpatient? someone get him back on here his commentary is missed! :(
Nicholas,
I had one of those TV’s that go to 13 with the outer UHF dial that spun without detents when I was a kid.
It was when car phones and cordless phones were first becomeing popular. I’m not sure which it was but I remember being able to tune into phone conversations by hunting around the UHF bands.
Managed to tune into this one guy fairly consistently that would call his drugged up mistress. Some pretty intense conversations for my young ears.
I wonder if I still had it if I’d be able to pick up babysitters making out with their boyfriends or the occassional baby shake on wireless baby sitter cams.
These new tv’s come out with hundreds of channels and bells and whistles. When they can pick up the security cam feeds from the “Spas” in the area that are open at all hours of the night.
By the way something to consider, in order from lowest to highest power consumption it’s CRT, LCD, Plasma.
oops.
When they can … wake me up :)
kettle [125],
Short Spain.
No Disclaimer required.
skep (40)-
Pretty much, although FHA will do your jumbo (I’m still trying to get my brain around the concept of “FHA Jumbo”) as long as you’re in the 600′s FICO-wise. The add-ons and MPI bang are tough, but not nearly as tough as agency jumbos, which could touch 9% on a mid-600s FICO.
Also, that 3% FHA DP- and seller concession at closing- lures a lot of borrowers.
Welcome to the new face of subprime!
Chi (61)-
To me, you get the whole Napa she-bang at All Seasons in Calistoga. Lots of good food & a legendary wine shop. All the winemakers in Napa & Sonoma buy their French, Italian and Spanish wines there on the sly. For a place where many winemakers claim not to pay attention to Europe, a lot of Burgundy, Bordeaux and Barolo fly out the door. If you pass by on a Friday or Saturday night and strike up a conversation with whoever is in the wine shop, they will probably start offering you dribbles of some serious & expensive juice. There’s also a good chance you’ll be rubbing elbows with Helen Turley, Doug Aubert and some other rock star winemakers.
When that’s over, I’d suggest continuing to drive north until you get to Mendocino. Much more interesting, much less touristy. Check out Handley, Lolonis or Navarro Vineyards…three great wineries that get almost no press at all.
chi (79)-
Even if pret is still employed, not even he is dense enough to show up around here after some of the latest job atrocities.
confused (99)-
“Spicy field rat dishes with garlic thrown in have become particularly popular at a time when beef costs 20,000 riel a kg.”
These losers in Cambodia should suck it up and be grateful. You should see what rat meat costs in Zimbabwe.
vodka (121)-
Back in the old days, I hear people used to think little doses of arsenic were good for you.
NJGator Says:
August 28th, 2008 at 5:06 pm
Napa Valley Live Blog Part 2
Linda and I are dying…………..
Guns and Gustav
No need for bullets when you have an AR-15. Hell, that thing scares me.
Clotpoll Says:
August 28th, 2008 at 9:22 pm
Chi (61)-
OK – next GTG in Yountville….this way, at least Cindy can road trip up there….maybe as a pale substitute, Nom can have Sideways playing in the background at the Brigadoon GTG…
grim Says:
August 28th, 2008 at 9:48 pm
Guns and Gustav
No need for bullets when you have an AR-15. Hell, that thing scares me.
grim: After that steely eyed stare you gave me after the movie I figured you were going to shoot me in the leg. Between the stare and your chest hair, I was a little bothered…..
grim,
re guns gustav,
should be interesting if the hurricane hits NO and the police decide to try and take legal firearms from citizens again, like they did after katrina. the citizenry may well be better armed then the police, and perhaps justified in self defense????
perhaps they should also pick up a few items from here
http://www.bulletproofme.com/
#159 kettle1,
You are so paranoid & cynical you almost make me seem normal! :)
bairen,
I am not really that bad in everyday life. I just play a wacko on NJREReport. Gotta let the crazy out somewhere ;)
bairen,
glad i could be of assistance
So the live blogging died, as we started to feel the effects of all the wine, and more importantly, as my Treo died. Here’s the day’s wrapup:
Signorello was a big disappointment. Maybe we were spoiled by the 1999 Cabs we had a few years back for $19.99, but we couldn’t spend upwards of $50 for this year’s mediocrity. We must have been under the influence though, because we did leave with a tasty Syrah.
Trefethen was fantastic. This was one of the wineries I visited on my first trip to Napa, and their wines rarely disappoint. We bought 2 Merlots and 2 Chardonnays.
We opted not to pay the $25 to taste at Chimney Rock (Stag’s Leap) and Darioush (think Aladdin in Napa).
We headed into downtown Napa for a fantastic dinner at Ubuntu. Stu says that Ubuntu is ‘African for dines with flies’. This was probably the most unique restaurant we’ve ever eaten at. All vegetarian, but no tofu or fake meat. There were things like nettles and pursulane instead. They say they are a vegetable restaurant, not a vegetarian restaurant. Everything was local, fresh and tasty. No wine with dinner though. Not sure if it was overload, cheapness or a combination of both.
After dinner, the evening was capped off with a trip up to the Rock River Indian Casino.
Tomorrow we head out to Healdsburg and then down to San Francisco.
Have a great night!
You haven’t hit rock bottom yet. You may see the silt, but you have to plow through a few more feet through that muck until you reach sand, then the pebbles, then the rock bottom.
As the energy industry shuts down ahead of the rapidly approaching Hurricane Gustav, the operators of the Henry Hub, the pricing point for natural gas futures contracts traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange, declared force majeure, effective Sunday. The Henry Hub, a point on the natural gas pipeline system in Erath, La., is the major natural gas delivery point in the U.S. It interconnects with nine interstate and four intrastate pipelines. The last time Henry Hub declared force majeure, freeing itself from contract liability in the face of an extraordinary event, was Hurricane Rita. causing the Nymex to temporarily halt deliveries against its futures contracts and sparking a panic among energy traders.