Tue 2 Sep 2008
“This is happening across the five boroughs, across the US”
Categories: Economics , Housing Bubble , National Real EstateFrom the Financial Times:
As the US housing slump deepened over the past three years, Manhattan’s real estate market seemed immune. Instead of crumbling with the rest of the nation, prices continued to rocket. Sales surged and new condominiums found multiple bidders. For a long while, Manhattan property was in an orbit all of its own.
But there are growing signs that this last bastion may be giving way. New York City, the seemingly indestructible foundation of the nation’s luxury property market, has this year begun to shown signs of strain. In the second quarter, traditionally the hottest property season, sales slumped 38 per cent to a five-year low, according to the Corcoran Group, the city’s largest residential real estate group.
“Two years ago, you could throw up some brick, put in a kitchen and a bath, put a price on it, and you’d have a bidding war,” says Pamela Liebman, Corcoran’s chief executive. “That’s not the case any more. Buyers now feel that a property they want today could cost less tomorrow.”
…
According to Miller Samuel, a New York residential real estate appraisal company, some 6,869 apartments were for sale in Manhattan in the second quarter. That is 11 per cent more than the first quarter – and a full 31 per cent more than the second quarter of last year.While some of the rise results from new developments coming on line, much of the latest increase has to do with existing co-operative properties sitting around for months on end. Co-op inventory, which mostly consists of resales, rose at a quicker pace than condo stock did in the second quarter.
In another disturbing sign, homes are staying on the market for longer. Miller Samuel reports that, from April through June, properties were listed for an average of 135 days – nearly three weeks longer than in the same period last year. “We may go through a cycle now where product will sit on the market,” Ms Liebman says. “There’s little room for error in a market like this.”
…
But as yet there is no sign of let-up and the grim mood in Manhattan has spread throughout the region. Consider the softness recently seen in the Hamptons, the Long Island beach retreat whose fate is closely tied to the fortunes of Wall Street. According to data compiled by Suffolk Research Service, the market saw both price declines and slower sales in the second quarter than in the same period last year.The price drops were even steeper for these beach homes, whose median price fell 11 per cent to $735,000, from $825,000 last year. What is more, volume took a hit for the fourth straight year. Only 576 homes sold in the second quarter, a 29 per cent drop from last year.
September 2nd, 2008 at 6:17 am
All bubbles are local.
It takes time for the locals to realize that their local real estate market has problems too.
September 2nd, 2008 at 6:33 am
I’ll say this just once. I love my house.
It is my refuge….my retreat….my dojo.
(Sound of canned tuna being opened…..)
Yummy ramen!
September 2nd, 2008 at 6:34 am
From the NY Times:
Fed Official Says Institutions Must Be Allowed to Fail
The president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Thomas M. Hoenig, said on Monday that for economies to work best, institutions must be allowed to fail.
Economies must “find a balance between financial stability and a stable price environment and in doing so must be able to allow individual institutions to fail,” Mr. Hoenig said in a speech in Buenos Aires.
Changes in financial markets combined with the subprime mortgage crisis have “raised anew questions about the role of central banks in maintaining financial stability,” he said.
The subprime mortgage collapse has taken a toll on banks and other financial companies, which have reported $514 billion of writedowns since the start of 2007. The Fed rescued Bear Stearns from bankruptcy in March, facilitating the firm’s merger with JPMorgan Chase by lending against $29 billion of Bear securities.
“Financial crises will occur despite our best efforts to prevent them,” Mr. Hoenig said in prepared remarks at an event held by Argentina’s central bank. The too-big-to-fail issue, he said, “will only grow in importance as the consolidation of the financial industry grows in both size and scope in future decades.”
September 2nd, 2008 at 6:43 am
Tom 1 Real estate is toast in my area & yet many cling to their 06 prices not that they sell. The downward pressure from REOs some selling, killing any chance of appraisals coming in to get loans on other properties.
It takes time is right as Re is an illiquid asset prices move slowly in the downward trend just like they should have to the up side. Not like 03 to 06 insanity. Most in my area (Sellers) know the party is over but are still hoping to land a sucker. That pool is slowly diminishing as these a holes can’t get a mortgage. I have the time so I’ll wait them out.
September 2nd, 2008 at 6:46 am
From the WSJ:
Lehman’s Sticky Situation
Real-Estate Assets
Pose Problems Even
In Possible Spinoff
By PETER EAVIS
September 2, 2008; Page C10
At the Wall Street firm Lehman Brothers Holdings, something’s gotta give. Having tried shopping its troubled real-estate holdings, it knows what the market thinks they are really worth. Placing market values on those assets could create big write-downs for its third quarter, which closed at the end of August.
That leaves the firm in a Catch-22. Its fate depends on freeing itself from those large uncertain positions, which leave it vulnerable to further losses. But offloading them could in itself crystallize a big loss.
Lehman can’t wriggle out of that dilemma. But it can try to structure a transaction that softens the blow. That may be why Lehman is considering a spinoff of troubled real-estate assets into a separate company.
September 2nd, 2008 at 7:15 am
That may be why Lehman is considering a spinoff of troubled real-estate assets into a separate company.
And then let it fail like a house of cards.
Wonder how they expect to pull that one off.
May work once then no one else will get away with it.
September 2nd, 2008 at 7:31 am
fail= fall
September 2nd, 2008 at 7:52 am
i’m looking forward to Bi’s political posts today.
September 2nd, 2008 at 8:06 am
i’m looking forward to Bi’s political posts today.
Me too ;)
September 2nd, 2008 at 8:08 am
Back.
See that asking prices are still sticky.
Would love to hear from Clot about what is happening in sales in his area.
September 2nd, 2008 at 8:13 am
Here is some political stuff for you guys.
Don’t know if all true but there are links to verify. It is pro M but if the #s are trus you can make up your own mind based on them.
http://money.cnn.com/news/specials/election/2008/index.html
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/issues/issues.taxes.html
http://elections.foxnews.com/?s=proposed+taxes
http://bulletin.aarp.org/yourworld/politics/articles/mccain_obama_offer_different_visions_on_taxes.html
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/fact-checker/candidates/barack_obama/
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/fact-checker/candidates/john_mccain/
SIMPLE MATH:
 CAPITAL GAINS TAX
MCCAIN 0% on home sales up to $500,000 per home (couples). McCain does not propose any change in existing home sales income tax.
OBAMA 28% on profit from ALL home sales. (How does this affect you? If you sell your home and make a profit, you will pay 28% of your gain on taxes. If you are heading toward retirement and would like to down-size your home or move into a retirement community, 28% of the money you make from your home will go to taxes. This proposal will adversely affect the elderly who are counting on the income from their homes as part of their retirement income.)
DIVIDEND TAX
MCCAIN 15% (no change)
OBAMA 39.6% - (How will this affect you? If you have any money invested in stock market, IRA, mutual funds, college funds, life insurance, retirement accounts, or anything that pays or reinvests dividends, you will now be paying nearly 40% of the money earned on taxes if Obama becomes president. The experts predict that ‘Higher tax rates on dividends and capital gains would crash the stock market, yet do absolutely nothing to cut the deficit.’)
INCOME TAX
MCCAIN
(no changes) Single making 30K - tax $4,500
Single making 50K - tax $12,500
Single making 75K - tax $18,750
Married making 60K- tax $9,000
Married making 75K - tax $18,750
Married making 125K - tax $31,250
OBAMA (reversion to pre-Bush tax cuts) Single making 30K - tax $8,400
Single making 50K - tax $14,000
Single making 75K - tax $23,250
Married making 60K - tax $16,800
Married making 75K - tax $21,000
Married making 125K - tax $38,750
Under Obama, your taxes could almost double!
INHERITANCE TAX
MCCAIN - 0% (No change, Bush repealed this tax)
OBAMA Restore the inheritance tax
Many families have lost businesses, farms, ranches, and homes that have been in their families for generations because they could not afford the inheritance tax. Those willing their assets to loved ones will only lose them to these taxes.
NEW TAXES PROPOSED BY OBAMA
New government taxes proposed on homes that are more than 2400 square feet. New gasoline taxes (as if gas weren’t high enough already) New taxes on natural resources consumption (heating gas, water, electricity) New taxes on retirement accounts, and last but not least….New taxes to pay for socialized medicine so we can receive the same level of medical care as other third-world countries!!!
2008 PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE COMPARISON TALKING POINTS
=0 A ISSUE JOHN McCAIN BARAK OBAMA
Favors new drilling offshore US Yes No
Will appoint judges who interpret the law not make it Yes No
Served in the US Armed Forces Yes No
Amount of time served in the US Senate 22 YEARS 173 DAYS
Will institute a socialized national health care plan No Yes
Supports abortion throughout the pregnancy No Yes
Would pull troops out of Iraq immediately No Yes
Supports gun ownership rights Yes No
Supports homosexual marriage No Yes
Proposed programs will mean a huge tax increase No Yes
Voted a gainst making English the official language No Yes
Voted to give Social Security benefits to illegals No Yes
CAPITAL GAINS TAX
MCCAIN 0% on home sales up to $500,000 per home (couples). McCain does not propose any change in existing home sales income tax.
OBAMA 28% on profit from ALL home sales. (How does this affect you? If you sell your home and make a profit, you will pay 28% of your gain on taxes. If you are heading toward retirement and would like to down-size your home or move into a retirement community, 28% of the money you make from your home will go to taxes. This proposal will adversely affect the elderly who are counting on the income from their homes as part of their retirement income.)
DIVIDEND TAX
MCCAIN 15% (no change)
OBAMA 39.6% - (How will this affect you? If you have any money invested in stock market, IRA, mutual funds, college funds, life insurance, retirement accounts, or anything that pays or reinvests dividends, you will now be paying nearly 40% of the money earned on taxes if Obama becomes president. The experts predict that ‘Higher tax rates on dividends and capital gains would crash the stock market, yet do absolutely nothing to cut the deficit.’)
INCOME TAX
MCCAIN
(no changes) Single making 30K - tax $4,500
Single making 50K - tax $12,500
Single making 75K - tax $18,750
Married making 60K- tax $9,000
Married making 75K - tax $18,750
Married making 125K - tax $31,250
OBAMA (reversion to pre-Bush tax cuts) Single making 30K - tax $8,400
Single making 50K - tax $14,000
Single making 75K - tax $23,250
Married making 60K - tax $16,800
Married making 75K - tax $21,000
Married making 125K - tax $38,750
Under Obama, your taxes could almost double!
INHERITANCE TAX
MCCAIN - 0% (No change, Bush repealed this tax)
OBAMA Restore the inheritance tax
Many families have lost businesses, farms, ranches, and homes that have been in their families for generations because they could not afford the inheritance tax. Those willing their assets to loved ones will only lose them to these taxes.
NEW TAXES PROPOSED BY OBAMA
New government taxes proposed on homes that are more than 2400 square feet. New gasoline taxes (as if gas weren’t high enough already) New taxes on natural resources consumption (heating gas, water, electricity) New taxes on retirement accounts, and last but not least….New taxes to pay for socialized medicine so we can receive the same level of medical care as other third-world countries!!!
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——————————————————————————–
It’s only a deal if it’s where you want to go. Find your travel deal here.
——————————————————————————–
September 2nd, 2008 at 8:16 am
Here is some political stuff to feed on.
Pro Mc for sure but the #s would seem to hold.
http://money.cnn.com/news/specials/election/2008/index.html
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/issues/issues.taxes.html
http://elections.foxnews.com/?s=proposed+taxes
http://bulletin.aarp.org/yourworld/politics/articles/mccain_obama_offer_different_visions_on_taxes.html
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/fact-checker/candidates/barack_obama/
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/fact-checker/candidates/john_mccain/
SIMPLE MATH:
 CAPITAL GAINS TAX
MCCAIN 0% on home sales up to $500,000 per home (couples). McCain does not propose any change in existing home sales income tax.
OBAMA 28% on profit from ALL home sales. (How does this affect you? If you sell your home and make a profit, you will pay 28% of your gain on taxes. If you are heading toward retirement and would like to down-size your home or move into a retirement community, 28% of the money you make from your home will go to taxes. This proposal will adversely affect the elderly who are counting on the income from their homes as part of their retirement income.)
DIVIDEND TAX
MCCAIN 15% (no change)
OBAMA 39.6% - (How will this affect you? If you have any money invested in stock market, IRA, mutual funds, college funds, life insurance, retirement accounts, or anything that pays or reinvests dividends, you will now be paying nearly 40% of the money earned on taxes if Obama becomes president. The experts predict that ‘Higher tax rates on dividends and capital gains would crash the stock market, yet do absolutely nothing to cut the deficit.’)
INCOME TAX
MCCAIN
(no changes) Single making 30K - tax $4,500
Single making 50K - tax $12,500
Single making 75K - tax $18,750
Married making 60K- tax $9,000
Married making 75K - tax $18,750
Married making 125K - tax $31,250
OBAMA (reversion to pre-Bush tax cuts) Single making 30K - tax $8,400
Single making 50K - tax $14,000
Single making 75K - tax $23,250
Married making 60K - tax $16,800
Married making 75K - tax $21,000
Married making 125K - tax $38,750
Under Obama, your taxes could almost double!
INHERITANCE TAX
MCCAIN - 0% (No change, Bush repealed this tax)
OBAMA Restore the inheritance tax
Many families have lost businesses, farms, ranches, and homes that have been in their families for generations because they could not afford the inheritance tax. Those willing their assets to loved ones will only lose them to these taxes.
NEW TAXES PROPOSED BY OBAMA
New government taxes proposed on homes that are more than 2400 square feet. New gasoline taxes (as if gas weren’t high enough already) New taxes on natural resources consumption (heating gas, water, electricity) New taxes on retirement accounts, and last but not least….New taxes to pay for socialized medicine so we can receive the same level of medical care as other third-world countries!!!
2008 PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE COMPARISON TALKING POINTS
=0 A ISSUE JOHN McCAIN BARAK OBAMA
Favors new drilling offshore US Yes No
Will appoint judges who interpret the law not make it Yes No
Served in the US Armed Forces Yes No
Amount of time served in the US Senate 22 YEARS 173 DAYS
Will institute a socialized national health care plan No Yes
Supports abortion throughout the pregnancy No Yes
Would pull troops out of Iraq immediately No Yes
Supports gun ownership rights Yes No
Supports homosexual marriage No Yes
Proposed programs will mean a huge tax increase No Yes
Voted a gainst making English the official language No Yes
Voted to give Social Security benefits to illegals No Yes
CAPITAL GAINS TAX
MCCAIN 0% on home sales up to $500,000 per home (couples). McCain does not propose any change in existing home sales income tax.
OBAMA 28% on profit from ALL home sales. (How does this affect you? If you sell your home and make a profit, you will pay 28% of your gain on taxes. If you are heading toward retirement and would like to down-size your home or move into a retirement community, 28% of the money you make from your home will go to taxes. This proposal will adversely affect the elderly who are counting on the income from their homes as part of their retirement income.)
DIVIDEND TAX
MCCAIN 15% (no change)
OBAMA 39.6% - (How will this affect you? If you have any money invested in stock market, IRA, mutual funds, college funds, life insurance, retirement accounts, or anything that pays or reinvests dividends, you will now be paying nearly 40% of the money earned on taxes if Obama becomes president. The experts predict that ‘Higher tax rates on dividends and capital gains would crash the stock market, yet do absolutely nothing to cut the deficit.’)
INCOME TAX
MCCAIN
(no changes) Single making 30K - tax $4,500
Single making 50K - tax $12,500
Single making 75K - tax $18,750
Married making 60K- tax $9,000
Married making 75K - tax $18,750
Married making 125K - tax $31,250
OBAMA (reversion to pre-Bush tax cuts) Single making 30K - tax $8,400
Single making 50K - tax $14,000
Single making 75K - tax $23,250
Married making 60K - tax $16,800
Married making 75K - tax $21,000
Married making 125K - tax $38,750
Under Obama, your taxes could almost double!
INHERITANCE TAX
MCCAIN - 0% (No change, Bush repealed this tax)
OBAMA Restore the inheritance tax
Many families have lost businesses, farms, ranches, and homes that have been in their families for generations because they could not afford the inheritance tax. Those willing their assets to loved ones will only lose them to these taxes.
NEW TAXES PROPOSED BY OBAMA
New government taxes proposed on homes that are more than 2400 square feet. New gasoline taxes (as if gas weren’t high enough already) New taxes on natural resources consumption (heating gas, water, electricity) New taxes on retirement accounts, and last but not least….New taxes to pay for socialized medicine so we can receive the same level of medical care as other third-world countries!!!
   Â
Â
——————————————————————————–
It’s only a deal if it’s where you want to go. Find your travel deal here.
——————————————————————————–
September 2nd, 2008 at 8:19 am
To many links, in mod Grim, no sweat. You know I don’t get in to this politico stuff much just like to share the #s. A lot of # guys on board would love to see their take.
September 2nd, 2008 at 8:25 am
Grim kill one doubled up on rather long post sorry bud.
September 2nd, 2008 at 8:26 am
soosh (10)-
The only houses that sell in my area are the ones where the owners come in and undercut the competition by 10% or more. With rare exception, I don’t even take listings unless the owner is willing to do this from Day 1.
Example: I just listed and sold a 2 BR, 2.1 BA Hovnanian garden home for 245ish in less than three weeks. In the same development, there are 5-6 homes of the same model, asking anywhere from 265K-300K. All they do is sit and rot. The same model, around the corner from mine, sold for 242.5K and went pretty fast, though. Clearly, buyers will take a serious look when you price correctly. If you don’t, nobody comes at all. If the house isn’t under contract in under a month, I think chances are pretty good it could take 6-12 months for it to sell…and sell at far under where it could’ve sold, had it been priced right from the beginning.
Soosh- thought of you Saturday while watching Celtic/Rangers. Celtic took a bad beating @ Celtic Park.
September 2nd, 2008 at 8:28 am
soosh- glad to see you are back, missed your posts.
September 2nd, 2008 at 8:30 am
There was an interview with the VPILF earlier today that wasn’t reported in the MSM. Most likely because it only exists in my head to amuse me :)
Palin was asked if she thought the revlations regarding her unwed teenage daughter’s pregnancy would take the steam out of her arguments for abstinence only sexual education classes. The mother of 5 who gave birth to her first child 8 months after eloping with her husband replied.
“I tell ya, I still can’t answer that question until someone answers, for me, what is it exactly that an abstinant person does every day?”
I have to agree with the right wingers on this one. If we don’t give teenagers options for safe sex, they will avoid having sex for fear of the consequences. The fight against their new, raging hormones will be won if they don’t have the tools that will give them false hope that they can avoid teenage pregnancy and STD’s.
I think that kind of thinking should be extended to other areas as well. We spend a lot of money on body armor and armored vehicles for our troops yet they still go ahead and get themseves hurt and killed. If we just told them “Don’t get hurt” instead of giving them the false sense of protection they have from armor, I think we would save a lot of money and see casualty rates drop dramatically.
We’re half way there as the facilities and resources we have for treating our wounded heroes are woefully inadequate. Unfortunately many don’t know this until it’s too late so they don’t take the necessary precautions.
I will now take off my angry bitter hat off and enjoy the beautiful day we’re having.
September 2nd, 2008 at 8:31 am
“Manhattan shows first cracks”
I have read this kind of story 50 times already. Show me a decent 1 bedroom in Manhattan for less than 800K. By reading this blog you would think you can get a apartment for free like in the 80s. But you can’t.
September 2nd, 2008 at 8:31 am
The Gator has pronounced herself qualified to be VP based on recent GOP standards, and appreciates your support.
September 2nd, 2008 at 8:33 am
#13 Clot.
Did the Old Firm game ease the pain of the shooing my Gooners gave you.
September 2nd, 2008 at 8:35 am
My HOV garden home was offered at the same price as the smallest one-floor condo in the same development.
That’s how you generate sales activity!
September 2nd, 2008 at 8:35 am
I doubt that the cheap renovations flippers did even served a purpose. More of a waste of time. In the spring of 2004 I saw a few flippers buy houses that took them to the spring of 2005 to get their renovations done. On paper it was quite a $ figure, in reality homes went up 20% in that insane one year period. If the flipper, just did a quick cleaning and paint job they could have rented it our for the year for 30K and then got 20% more. The year long headache of gutting most likely was a fiasco when you count in time, energy and money. A rising market masks all types of stupid mistakes.
September 2nd, 2008 at 8:37 am
Here is a nice 2 bedroom foreclosure in NYC for you to ponder.
http://www.maltzauctions.com/real_estate_detail.php?ID=386556
Frank Says:
September 2nd, 2008 at 8:31 am
“Manhattan shows first cracks”
I have read this kind of story 50 times already. Show me a decent 1 bedroom in Manhattan for less than 800K. By reading this blog you would think you can get a apartment for free like in the 80s. But you can’t.
September 2nd, 2008 at 8:39 am
PGC (18)-
No. Just a horrible, awful beat down. They even got a shot of the Magpies’ owner in the stands, chugging a beer after the 2nd goal.
The first thing I thought was that he might be drinking because he doesn’t really have any money left and his marquee sponsor is a failed, nationalized bank.
I can’t believe people are saying the Gooners have problems. They looked unbelievable.
September 2nd, 2008 at 8:41 am
Clot - Thanks. Guess I’ll still be on the sidelines for a while, although may attempt some bottomfeeding this winter. Thought of you too as I passed through Manchester a couple of times.
afe - Thanks, although I don’t know how much I have to bring to the table these days. Spread a bit thin with everything I have on my plate and quite honestly, the bubble is now commonly recognized (wasn’t back in the day) and there doesn’t seem to be much to say.
Gator - I’ll vote for you!!!!
September 2nd, 2008 at 8:47 am
#19 clot: where would that 2 bed room have sold in 05/06?
September 2nd, 2008 at 8:53 am
I saw liberal media and some active members on this board got so excited about palin’s revealing during the weekend. You are taking baits exactly from karl rove’s playbook. RNC knows you guys love this kind of Hollywood stuff and will spread it to every joe and jills. Palin is a new star and needs popularity and you guys have been doing a great service for her but unfortunately did not get paid from mc’s new money ($10M over the weekend after her pick). Now back to reality, if their base doesn’t have problem with cheney’s gay daughter and W’s DWI, why they will problem now? If people at the middle to left, which are mc’s target by picking palin, don’t have problem with redneck bill taking about “I don’t have X relationship with that woman” in front of TV, why do they have problem with this woman?
September 2nd, 2008 at 8:55 am
soosh- you are right, there is no more need for drum beating. But I miss your poignant style of responding to some of the less savory folks on here and your manifest girl-power! :)
September 2nd, 2008 at 8:59 am
BI:
You are so typical. #1, M lied when he said he knew about the teenage pregnancy prior to choosing Palin as his veep. #2, Whenever a republican F’s up, they always claim it’s not a problem since all of America is dysfunctional. These are great role models for us to follow. We have already witnessed the results of a maverick who chose to go it alone for the past 8 years. Twice the debt and now we are stuck in a quagmire in a country that didn’t attack us. Mission accomplished…right?
September 2nd, 2008 at 9:00 am
bi Says:
September 2nd, 2008 at 8:53 am
If people at the middle to left, which are mc’s target by picking palin, don’t have problem with redneck bill taking about “I don’t have X relationship with that woman” in front of TV, why do they have problem with this woman?
bi: Because if this race comes down to a matter of who do you want staring down al-Qaida and Putin, a dispassionate scholar or a whimsical “maverick”, willing to roll the dice in an effort to pander, with a golf ball cut out of his head? I think the answer is clear.
September 2nd, 2008 at 9:06 am
#28 chgoginance: Not to belabor the political discussion here. But as soem one who is not happy with either choice, this decesion by McCain is an absolute disaster. Not to mention insulting to women and to Americans in general;perhaps we need to eb insulted.
I think people like me who do not like either candidate, now have only 2 choices, vote for Obama or stay home on election day. I cannot now even consider voting for McCain just on principal.
September 2nd, 2008 at 9:07 am
3b (24)-
A touch over 300K.
September 2nd, 2008 at 9:07 am
I look forward to some more of BI’s lies and deceit.
September 2nd, 2008 at 9:07 am
“If people at the middle to left, which are mc’s target by picking palin, don’t have problem with redneck bill taking about “I don’t have X relationship with that woman” in front of TV, why do they have problem with this woman?”
Bi, it’s because he wasn’t going around trying to enact policies that would prevent guys from playing pecker lollipop games with chubby chicks.
While Palin on the other hand can’t successfully teach abstinence to her own family, but wants to teach it to yours.
September 2nd, 2008 at 9:10 am
I hate politics. This election has sunk to the level of Disney Channel and Us magazine.
If I need a 24/7 dose of trailer park mamas and preggo teen brides, I can go back to NC. At least I can watch the show there with a proper plate of BBQ and a cold beer.
September 2nd, 2008 at 9:11 am
Drat! Moderated @ #32, for some unknown indiscretion.
September 2nd, 2008 at 9:15 am
How the housing crash hurts your retirement
You can now see that real estate isn’t a sure bet. But that’s just one lesson of this market.
bursting of the housing bubble provides three valuable lessons for retirement planning.
* Don’t go ga-ga over go-go investments
* Gains are no substitute for saving
* Too much debt can compound a crisis
Today’s housing collapse will likely rank among the biggest debacles in modern American economic history. You can’t escape it. But it will be an even bigger shame if you don’t learn from it.
September 2nd, 2008 at 9:15 am
I will be laughing my butt off when M decides that Palin was a bad choice and replaces her. All the meanwhile, all the conservatives here will be eating major crow after gushing over how wonderful of a veep pick she was.
But don’t worry, I’m already prepared for your statements describing how M can admit to his mistakes and how willing he is to embrace change.
I only hope Palin’s grand daughter was not fathered by M himself.
September 2nd, 2008 at 9:17 am
NJGator,
I have decided to also throw my hat into the ring. I was PTA president in 2004 my experience prior to that was nil. I was not an officer but a mere member and class mother. I, during my term which went as follows 2004 President 2005+2006 Vice President and 2007 President once again. When I took over out of the blue, I changed our policy of using a fund raiser consultant, we then were able to squeeze great give-aways from fundraising companies vying for our business, those give-aways were then raffled off to earn even more money. The year before I came into office we ran all programs on an $11,000 budget after the end of my first term we had raised $30,000 and were able to send the whole school on class trips, and have kept that budget and trips upto and including my past term we kept our promise to our students.
I also eliminted waste, by finding a t-shirt company to print shirts for our field day at half the price of the company they were using for years. This one executive decision saved us over $1600.00. I eliminated token gifts to teachers at each holiday that would be thrown out and instead give them a once a year breakfast, saving almost half of what was spent prior. I prefer to give them nothing but….pressure is high on that one. I could just go on and on, but Gator let me say you have competition!
KL
September 2nd, 2008 at 9:19 am
Obama’s mama got knocked up at 18 by a muslim from africa which is why he can’t throw stones at Palin, otherwise he would be spanking her harder than a rented mule.
If you are from the tristate area and make over 250K a year your choices are vote for the old man and the hockey mom and see your taxes stay the same or vote for the young man and old man and kiss 25K of your income goodbye for the next eight years. 25K times 8 is 200K. Obama would have to cleaning my house and mowing my lawn for the next year before I send hime a check for 200K.
September 2nd, 2008 at 9:20 am
KL - You may very well be overqualified. Aren’t you in Bergen County too? On the front lines of the NY-NJ cold war?
September 2nd, 2008 at 9:23 am
“On the front lines of the NY-NJ cold war”
Nah, the NY-NJ cold war was ended by a crossing guard when she held up her white glove and proclaimed, “Mayor Dinkins, tear down this tollboth!”
September 2nd, 2008 at 9:26 am
History Channel say’s December 20, 2012 is “Game Over”, which also confirms Obama is in.
September 2nd, 2008 at 9:26 am
Gold bugs and oil longs…It may be in your best interest to ignore the stock market today.
September 2nd, 2008 at 9:28 am
Bet against the bubble - how to head off a subprime crisis
Robert Shiller’s got an argument that will make some peoples’ heads explode in his new book The Subprime Solution - we need more speculation in the housing market.
He starts from the point that while there was most certainly fraud, stupidity, larceny and greed involved in what happened they were not the cause. No, rather we had one of those madness of crowds moments when the populace was swept up in the grips of a mania. House prices would continue to rise, continue without risk. Very much a repeat of numerous earlier examples, the South Sea Bubble, Dutch tulip mania, internet stocks in the 90s, the Mississippi land boom in France, economic history is littered with examples. The frauds fed off this, but they needed that mania to exist first - they didn’t cause it.
Imagine, though, what would have happened if there had been such a liquid futures market. The bears would have been able to put their money down and influence the price of said futures. The general hysteria that prices could only ever rise would have been confronted with an interesting new piece of data: not everyone agreed. Would this have meant that some poor sap wouldn’t have bought a shoebox in Las Vegas for a million or two? No, but it would have meant that financiers would have been extremely hesitant to lend him the money to do so on an interest-only adjustable rate mortgage that depended upon ever rising prices to repay. That is, the simple point that some (many?) thought it was indeed a bubble and were prepared to put their money where their opinions were would have pricked the bubble that much earlier.
September 2nd, 2008 at 9:31 am
38#, stu, agreed. with oil down ove $10 from friday and gold under $800, what you need is abstinence.
September 2nd, 2008 at 9:33 am
KL - My ‘experience’ has mainly been on the organizational side. While a student at the University of Florida, I helped run a political campaign attempting to dismantle the Greek run student government. So I am a true “reformer”, you see. Sure the party was called “Armageddon”, but we did have the coolest campaign graphics (think Corel Draw clip art circa 1994) and slogans around like this one: “Armageddon: Pro Gay, Pro Gun, Pro Greek. Vote Armageddon, we support hazing.” But hey, secessionism is very much in vogue these days.
I am also a working mom. A Future hockey mom (Lil Gator is only 3 after all). Big SEC sports and drinking fan. Possess 100% authentic female anatomy and am semi-literate on some of the issues of the day. I have recently passed the pre-employment check of a major financial services company.
I am not a great hunting shot yet, but based on the skills of the current VP, this should not be an issue to my election.
September 2nd, 2008 at 9:45 am
Will The Washington Post Ever Discover the Housing Bubble?
During the years of the housing boom, the most frequently cited authority on the housing market in The Washington Post was David Lereah, the chief economist of the National Association of Realtors (NAR) and the author of the 2006 best seller, Why the Real Estate Boom Will Not Bust and How You Can Profit From It. It seems that the Post is still partial to those who argue that everything is just fine in the housing market.
Last week it published an op-ed column claiming that the widely cited Case-Shiller index, which shows that nominal house prices are already down by more than 16.2 percent from their bubble peaks, is overstating the true rate of price decline across the nation. The column notes that a different index shows that house prices have fallen by more than 4 percent in just four states (California and Florida are two of the ill-fated four).
If I were being picky, I would point out that a completely independent index, the NAR’s existing home sales series, also shows a double-digit price decline from its 2006 peak, but that is beside the point. As the bubble grew to ever more dangerous levels in the years from 2002 to 2006, The Washington Post almost completely excluded from its pages the voices of those raising the alarm. Now, even as the bursting bubble is leading to record rates of foreclosure, the destruction of trillions of dollars of housing wealth, and the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, the Post can still find room on its op-ed pages for the “everything is just fine crowd.”
September 2nd, 2008 at 9:50 am
Cost-Cutting in New York, but a Boom in India
GURGAON, India — On the top floor of a seven-story building in this dusty aspiring metropolis, Copal Partners churns out equity, fixed income and trading research for big name analysts and banks. It is a long way from the well-cooled corridors of Wall Street, and quarters are tight; business is up about 40 percent this year alone.
Wall Street’s losses are fast becoming India’s gain. After outsourcing much of their back-office work to India, banks are now exporting data-intensive jobs from higher up the food chain to cities that cost less than New York, London and Hong Kong, either at their own offices or to third parties.
Cost-cutting in New York and London has already been brutal thus far this year, and there is more to come in the next few months. New York City financial firms expect to hand out some $18 billion less in pay and benefits this year than 2007, the largest one-year drop ever. Over all, United States banks will cut 200,000 employees by 2009, the banking consultancy Celent said in April.
During my last India visit to Mumbai, the hot ticket item was FSI jobs.
September 2nd, 2008 at 9:50 am
“Here is a nice 2 bedroom foreclosure in NYC for you to ponder.”
This will go for $1.5M-$2M or 1M Euro. Where’s the gloom and doom?
September 2nd, 2008 at 9:54 am
Sarah Palin: Earmark Queen
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26504638/
September 2nd, 2008 at 9:56 am
Anyone ever use two agents, one for the selling process and one for the buying process?
We are getting ready to sell our townhome and buy a house. What we want is coming down to our price in our area, and the little one is filling up our place fast.
A friend of my wife’s family is a realtor, and comes highly reccomended by a few other friends. From what I understand she’s great at finding what you need at the price you want. She works for a small local agency, with no real internet presence. I’m concerned about her ability to be able to make our place seen, but I’d like to use her on the buy side.
I’ve spoken to a couple of others, with bigger companies that I was considering using on the sell side.
What are my potential hassles or drawbacks? Timing? Two upset agents instead of one?
September 2nd, 2008 at 9:57 am
#45 frank: Your absolute and total denial is astounding. Are you like this in all facets of your life?
September 2nd, 2008 at 9:57 am
McCain’s Sexist VP Pick
The GOP seems to think women will eagerly vote for any ticket that includes a member of their gender. That’s Republican tokenism and pandering at its worst.
Palin’s addition to the ticket takes Republican faux-feminism to a whole new level. As Adam Serwer pointed out on TAPPED, this is in fact a condescending move by the GOP. It plays to the assumption that disaffected Hillary Clinton supporters did not care about her politics — only her gender. In picking Palin, Republicans are lending credence to the sexist assumption that women voters are too stupid to investigate or care about the issues, and merely want to vote for someone who looks like them. As Serwer noted, it’s akin to choosing Alan Keyes in an attempt to compete with Obama for votes from black Americans.
September 2nd, 2008 at 10:05 am
OT: Corzine
In the last few weeks, he’s been on tv from Wyoming, Bill Mahr Show, and MSNBC (the only ones I’m aware of).
Lots of appearances.
Who’s manning this state?
September 2nd, 2008 at 10:08 am
Palin lawyers up. This is going to get fun:
In one of the stories yesterday about Palin’s hiring of a lawyer — which we now find out she’s having the state of Alaska pay for — I noted that her new counsel, Thomas Van Flein, asked the lead investigator in the case to turn over all witness statements and documents produced so far in the probe. That struck me not as a good-faith request but rather an effort to get into a fight over process and thus gum up the investigation until after the election.
And sure enough, today’s Anchorage Daily News provides plenty of evidence that that is what’s happening in spades. Though to this point Palin has said she would cooperate fully with the investigation, Van Flein is now challenging the standing of the entire inquiry. He claims that any investigation should be handled not by the legislature but by the state Personnel Board which, conveniently, is made up of the governor’s appointees.
Van Flein is also charging that the state senator charged with overseeing the investigation is on a partisan witch-hunt. “Our concern is that Hollis French turns into Ken Starr and uses public money to pursue a political vendetta rather than truly pursue an honest inquiry into an alleged ethics issue,” Van Flein told the ADN. To which French rather persuasively responded that the charge of partisanship rang at least a little hollow since the investigation was instigated and authorized by a committee dominated by Republicans (though it’s only fair to note that Palin is not beloved by all Republicans in the state).
And finally that deposition that the investigator is trying to arrange with Gov. Palin? Seems she may be too busy running for vice president to make time for that. From the ADN …
Branchflower [the lead investigator] hasn’t been able to set up an interview with Palin. French said the state will fly Branchflower to wherever Palin is on the campaign trail if needed.
“Clearly the governor’s new political role will make it more challenging for her to make time for this investigation,” French wrote. But Palin needs to be interviewed sometime in September, he said.
Van Flein said the investigation is “bad timing” in the middle of a presidential campaign. He said he couldn’t guarantee her availability this month.
If witnesses aren’t available, French wrote, he’ll ask the Senate Judiciary Committee, which he chairs, to issue subpoenas.
Buckle up.
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/212342.php
http://www.adn.com/front/story/513137.html
September 2nd, 2008 at 10:09 am
Grim - 49 in moderation.
September 2nd, 2008 at 10:11 am
Clot: Re #13: A house came back on the market in the development where we want to buy and at least from the web site, it looks to be everything we are looking for except price. At first we thought it will never be on the market a year from now when we plan to buy but given that its priced at 359k (original list was 389k) when similar are listing for 325k and one comp we saw sold for 308k so who knows, it may still be available.
Leaving fro two weeks in Sicily tomorrow and have already made plas at a local hospital to have my blood replaced with Nero D’Avola. Hope nothing crashes or goes belly up while I’m gone.
September 2nd, 2008 at 10:11 am
BUCKS COUNTY COMP KILLER - Newtown
(for sale at 2004 price)
2004 purchase price, per zillow: 495k
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/12-Tall-Oaks-Ln/9057578_zpid
2008 sale price, per realtor.com: 499k
http://www.realtor.com/search/listingdetail.aspx?zp=18940&mnp=30&mxp=31&bd=5&typ=1&sid=cfb31e9b346442508a2b4a1d4546d828&lid=1100302488&lsn=4&srcnt=12#Detail
September 2nd, 2008 at 10:12 am
Grim, 51 (bucks county comp killer!) in mod
September 2nd, 2008 at 10:14 am
Based on what?
Frank, remember two weeks ago how you claimed places were selling in your neighborhood for 10% above asking?
Yeah, we’re still waiting for the name of that neighborhood. Matter of fact, you never back anything up with a link.
September 2nd, 2008 at 10:16 am
44 Frank, I guess if the word ‘foreclsoure’ in a listing doesn’t spell gloom and doom, then I guess nothing will get through your rose-colored glasses.
September 2nd, 2008 at 10:20 am
From Economist.com,
American banks - When sorrows come
EVERY episode in the credit crunch has had its dramatic flourish. There were the defenestrations at Citigroup and Merrill Lynch late last year; then, in March, the Bear Stearns fiasco; the humbling of UBS; and now Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, a tale of hubris that might impress Shakespeare himself. What next?
Institutional Risk Analytics, which monitors the health of banks, expects more than 100 lenders—most, but by no means all, tiddlers—to fold over the next year alone. Alarmingly, the ratio of loan-loss provisions to duff credit is at its lowest level in 15 years.
How much will be needed? Possibly far more than the FDIC is letting on, reckons Joseph Mason of Louisiana State University. Extrapolating from the savings and loan crisis of the early 1990s, and allowing for the growth in bank assets, he puts the possible cost at $143 billion.
September 2nd, 2008 at 10:23 am
FYI, A Photo Safari of Wasilla, AK. This is the “city” that Sarah Palin was a member of the city council and later Mayor and where she gained her the lion’s share of her highly valued political experience.
September 2nd, 2008 at 10:25 am
Grim - #48 in Mod
September 2nd, 2008 at 10:26 am
Hey Frankie Check It Out Big Boy:
Unthinkable Happens: Manhattan Apartment Prices Fall
‘This Clearly Indicates That the Market Is Not What It Was’
http://www.nysun.com/business/unthinkable-happens-manhattan-apartment-prices/84900/
September 2nd, 2008 at 10:28 am
Over the weekend, Mrs. Shore and I went looking at occasional-use places in NJ and NY. Although the properties differed greatly (some waterfront with about 2/3 acre lots and some had 5 acres or more overlooking or fronting freshwater lakes, and a range in between) and the prices were within the range we are prepared to pay, we kept coming up against something that sticks in our craw: taxes ran more than 1,000/month for all of them.
Now we have no issue with paying taxes to receive police protection and other necessary and beneficial services (including aid to hospitals and other such things folks often overlook until they need them) the whole tax situation has gone out of control. I suspect this issue will be a longterm drag on RE prices — retarding any recovery.
The governor up in NY recently called the legislature back intgo session to tackle the budget situation. After cutting something like 3% from the budget (most of which, it seems, will be passed onto local governments, which will need to pick up the tab, so there is no real net reduction is government costs) declared “victory,” patted ecah other on the back, and went home to spend anothr day.
New York is drowning in debt and it is only getting deeper in debt. NJ seems to be in the same boat. When government goes so far into the red, it is all but impossible to “grow out of the debt.” Unless government at all levels seriously reasseses how much it spends, and on what, the various government enteties will only sink deeper into debt.
The bottom line to all this is that property taxes will go up. With this as a likely outcome, anyone looking to purchase RE has to keep a wary eye on the tax component of the total monthly expense to buy RE.
Does anyone have any data on property tax burden as a percentage of PTI for residential mortgages in NJ?
Clot, Grim, and the other RE pubahs here, have you seen any folks demure from purchases because of taxes?
September 2nd, 2008 at 10:33 am
Grim, 55 in moderation
September 2nd, 2008 at 10:36 am
While politics is on people’s minds I thought I’d throw this thought out that I’ve been having.
It seems to me that both political party machines have been gaining too much power and disrupting the individual responsibilities elected officials have to their constituents in my opinion. Something needs to change to shake things up.
A third party candidate winning the top seat in government or even a few more seats in congress would be a good way to achieve this. Unfortunately, the way things are today, this would be very unlikely.
I more reasonable goal would be to have a split party ticket for president. I was reminded of this when I read how Biden had recommended that Kerry tap M for the VP spot in 2004. I thought that would have been a good way to go. Pre-2000 M seemed like a good candidate to me. Someone that was interested in cutting government spending, was able to reach out across the isle and didn’t pander to the evangelical leaders. Other than the Keating five scandal he seemed like a decent choice to really do what he thought was best for our country and not what his party thought was best.
By 2004 I was still had hopes that the spanking M got from the republicans didn’t change him and that if he ran with Kerry it would give me hope that the old M was still out there. Now he seems to have gone completely to the dark side and I don’t see him as someone that could fullfil this goal. Even if Palin needs to be replaced and he taps Lieberman, it wouldn’t quite be the same.
It looks like O might be the next president and if things go well and after 8 years Biden runs for pres, if another donkey worshiper could step up to be what I felt Mc used to be, a Biden/McNew ticket might be just what we need to get some real change in this country.
My prediction though is that whoever is elected is going to have to fight very hard to win a second term. I think a lot of the problems caused by previous administrations will become more evident next year and blamed on whoever is currently is in office.
They’re going to have to come up with some real magic to make things really better in 4 years. The problem is, in most cases, things have to get worse before they can get better. So to get things going fast will ruffle a lot of feathers and possibly cause enough friction to keep the parties from working together.
I’ve lost hope for M, I feel like he sold his soul to win the nomination. O wouldn’t have been my first choice but the way he’s been running his campaign gives me some hope. He doesn’t seem to be attacking repubs in general, just bush and mccain’s policies. Hopefully it’s because he wants to do what he said and be able to cross party lines to get things done. So he’s not trying to alienate them.
There are some bright people on both sides serving in our government. If we could get them to work on the issues we’re having today and forget about the stale ideologies both parties have been pushing for decades we can really get some things done.
What I hope to see in my lifetime is elected officials from both parties being able to endorse congressional canditates for re-election based on their commitment and performance, after their respective parties have decided not to support them. I think that would be the first hint that we’re approaching the type of positive change we need.
September 2nd, 2008 at 10:46 am
finally, mr. O got more executive experience. by the way, did he mention she is the current governor.
“My understanding is that Gov. Palin’s town, Wassilla, has I think 50 employees. We’ve got 2500 in this campaign. I think their budget is maybe 12 million dollars a year – we have a budget of about three times that just for the month,” Obsama responded.
September 2nd, 2008 at 10:46 am
BI,
What to place a gentlemen’s bet on where oil is by June 09????
My bet is $150+. You can only ignore the low fuel light on your cars dash for so long before you run out. oil fundamentals are being ignored in the market in place of rainbows and puppy dogs. I am a patient guy and realize there will be significant swings in the short, but there is only 1 way to go in the long term (1+ years).
If you think i am wrong i challenge you to present solid data that says otherwise.
The lower prices are at least in part due to election year politics exerting influence.
September 2nd, 2008 at 10:49 am
Well.. specifically that ny apt isn’t a foreclosure, it’s a bankruptcy auction. Nice thing about those, all liens against the property generally detach as they are addressed at the bankruptcy proceedings.
The 50% deposit is a bit steeper than the 20% you need for foreclosures in NJ.
September 2nd, 2008 at 10:50 am
69,
Yea. So what? Has O-bam-a ever had to live in the mean streets of Wasilla? Sure he faces the hazards of the Southside but, did O ever run the risk of facing down a Kodiak bear while walking home from the local moose processing plant?
Also, it is vety easy to get things done wit 2,500 employees. Try paving a single interesction with just 50. Clearly, SP gets things done with less.
September 2nd, 2008 at 10:52 am
70#, kettle, sorry i cannot see what will happen with oil 1 year from now and i don’t have any fundamental knowledge of that industry. i am purely speculating that it will go down to 80 to 100 level by year end before taking any direction.
September 2nd, 2008 at 10:52 am
Forget about Manhattan. As I said before, prices will always be high because its just too close to Manhattan.
Anyone ever lived or currently live in Springfield? Are there any parts of town that are higher end where one can walk to a NYC bus that isn’t standing room only? I know that those who live at “the Top” tend to drive to the Summit train station and I also know you can park at the pool and take a jitney to the Short Hills (I think) train station but if I don’t want to have to drive at all, are there any walking opportunities to NYC transportation that work well? Streets/cross streets please.
September 2nd, 2008 at 10:55 am
Well, I guess if Obama wants to compare his running a campaign for about a year to running the state of Alaska for two years, he is entitled to his warped opinion. He’s falling into the trap of comparing himself to someone with little experience as compared to comparing and contrasting vs. McCain.
Question for the board, up to what age does it not matter for your kids to live in a standard town compared to a nice one (say Lyndhurst/Clifton vs. Westfield/Millburn)
September 2nd, 2008 at 10:55 am
“What to place a gentlemen’s bet on where oil is by June 09????
My bet is $150+.”
Damnit BI. Based on your latest prognostication, my black box returned a $76/barrel price estimate. So that is where my money is.
September 2nd, 2008 at 11:00 am
#74. I think you want to live near Mountain ave or be able to park near it. Also, there is a park and ride on Morris Ave behind a Chinese restaurant if I recall. Another option is taking the #70 bus on Morris Ave. to Millburn train station but the buses don’t run as often when you get out late at night
September 2nd, 2008 at 11:07 am
The Credit Crisis Revisited, Part 1
It’s All About the Spreads
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/MER-jpm-Credit-mortgage-housing-banks/index/a/18753
September 2nd, 2008 at 11:07 am
hughesrep,
I am currently in a situation such as the one you are questioning about. I am on the buy side. Their unit must first be sold and I recommended another agent for the sale
(not reffered/reffered=bloodmoney)Thereby taking the most pressure off myself (-:
I suggest you tell the selling agent you have a friend in the business you would like to give your buy to, but that he/she came highly reccommended as a selling agent in that area. The buying agent should realize he’s got it easier.
KL
September 2nd, 2008 at 11:11 am
Gator,
Sounds like we are both overqualified, but I want to time my backing out of the race in such a way as to steal the thunder from Mrs. Palin when she does the same.
KL
September 2nd, 2008 at 11:13 am
#74 The NJ Transit bus #114 rides along Mountain Avenue in Springfield up to Morris Avenue and then along Morris Ave through Union to Union Center. Then it goes on Rt 22 to NYC Midtown Port Authority. My friend takes the bus every day to NYC for her job. It is great. Better than the train. They run a number of buses during rush hour (no standing) and you can get in and out of NYC in an hour or less sometimes.
September 2nd, 2008 at 11:16 am
#74 I think the monthly bus pass is about $160 (or or less) through something called Wageworks.
September 2nd, 2008 at 11:16 am
[19] Gator,
You can be my running mate. Based on what I have read, I am better qualified than Ob to be president, even though I have never held elective office. I also know more about computers, taxes and the economy than McC apparently.
Since I govern center-right (which is to say, just to the left of Kettle and Reinvestor), you will provide a welcome counterweight to attract the center-left and the pro-female VP vote.
Mikeinwaiting finally posted to something I had surmised, which was that Ob would repeal the cap gain exclusion for primary residences. I had long suspected he would do that as it will bring down housing costs long term and hit only the folks that won’t vote for him anyway. It is also my tripwire to see if the Dems intend to engage in wider class warfare.
Will have to examine to see if Ob also wants to prevent Roth conversions after 2009. Starting in 2010, you can convert a traditional IRA to Roth without limits or penalties. Sounds like Ob is looking at that, which would really fry my onions since I have been loading up my IRA with nonexcludible deposits for the past three years, hoping to convert a sizeable chunk to Roth.
September 2nd, 2008 at 11:17 am
I’d really like to stop but this is just too entertaining. NYPost has quotes from palin’s baby daddy’s myspace page. Best one:
He also claims to be “in a relationship,” but states, “I don’t want kids.”
September 2nd, 2008 at 11:18 am
NJGator @ 8:31 am:
Just apply DNC standards and you’re qualified to be President!
September 2nd, 2008 at 11:21 am
[47] Gator
“Possess 100% authentic female anatomy”
More info than we needed, and probably more than Stu wanted us to have.
Glad that you are pro-gun though. Can’t have a gun grabber on my ticket.
September 2nd, 2008 at 11:22 am
My initial thought on Palins’ nomination was, that it was a repeat of Harriet Miers nominiation for the Supreme Court. While Miers was nomiated as a result of loyalty to W, it was obvious that she was to far out of her depth. In this case Palin is swimming in the water, we’ll see what will happen when the water starts to get really choppy.
I personally think it was a mistake on M’s part, but I balance that against the journalist who called it, “a political Hail Mary play. M is so far behind in real terms with very little momentum, he has to go deep to get back in the game.
September 2nd, 2008 at 11:24 am
STu,
careful,
$150+ oil was my prediction, not Bi’s. I dont know how kettle data fits into your black box. Bi declined to predict that far out. he guessed 80-100 by dec. That means you should be betting on 130/140 oil if i understand the BI Black BOX (BBB) correctly
September 2nd, 2008 at 11:24 am
Stu @ 8:59 am:
US Senators who voted yes “to authorize the use of United States Armed Forces against Iraq”:
John Edwards
Hillary Clinton
Joe Biden
John Kerry
Harry Reid
http://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=107&vote=00237&session=2#position
September 2nd, 2008 at 11:25 am
Tom,
So the 100,000$ is a 50% deposit and they think the house will auction for around 200,000$?
NJ requires 20% down at the auction?
I am seeing 10-15 of these type of auctions come up in the county I live in every week and it looks like they are requiring a 10% deposit on the property in Maryland. I always wonder if they are worth looking into.
September 2nd, 2008 at 11:26 am
The femmes in my household are all ranting about the female VP pick by M.
The story of the week was that if he dies in office (a likely occurance to them) then she would be the first female pres.
I can tell you it has an attractive ring to it for them.
September 2nd, 2008 at 11:31 am
#73 bi: Goldman Sachs still stands by it’s call of oil at $150 a barell by year end.
September 2nd, 2008 at 11:35 am
#86 I believe she will be quietly asked to resign from the ticket.
September 2nd, 2008 at 11:38 am
82 Nom - In the spirit of full disclosure, I must confess that just like Ms. P. I am a former beauty queen (Wayne Wooten Memorial Sundial Queen, it’s a long story) and in that capacity I did once attend a Student Government banquet dressed in a VS lycra laceup slip and fishnets, while escorted by a pro-gun libertarian who did moonlight as a crossdresser (but not that evening). There may have been pictures, but I was too drunk to remember for certain.
September 2nd, 2008 at 11:39 am
Nicholas,
From how I understood the auction that was posted, you need to show up with $100,000 just to be allowed to bid. You’ll need 50% deposit when the auction closes.
NJ requires you to pay 20% of the bid at the end of a foreclosure auction in certified check or cash. The rest is due in 30 days.
I’m not sure where you’re from but in Bergen County foreclosures have been going for up to 50% below judgment and peak prices. Whether that’s a good deal or not depends on the specific property, what your plans for the property are and where you think the market in that area is headed.
I generally only make public comments on specific properties post auction. But I will say that in general, my opinion is that if you’re interested in a property, the best thing to do these days is to try and negotiate an aggressive short sale before it even gets to auction. The banks have show that they are holding weak cards and are willing to make deals. That’s based on what I’ve been seeing here in Bergen County. Your market may be different and like I said you have to make decisions on a property by property basis.
September 2nd, 2008 at 11:42 am
#92 - Probably. I’d have some respect for the GOP if they stuck with her despite the ferfluffle involving her daughter.
My heart goes out the the kid though. 17 and pregnant is usually difficult enough. 17 and pregnant with everyone in the world looking on I’d imagine somewhere in the “absolutely worst case” catergory.
September 2nd, 2008 at 11:44 am
afe - 28 -
Wow, Thanks. Very kind of you to say.
September 2nd, 2008 at 11:48 am
Clotpoll Says:
“If I need a 24/7 dose of trailer park mamas and preggo teen brides, I can go back to NC. At least I can watch the show there with a proper plate of BBQ and a cold beer.”
Ahhh…Clot…
You’re out of touch…There are no “plates”. They eat all their off of a *STICK*.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l-5Lr2IhB_o
September 2nd, 2008 at 11:50 am
#93 - I did once attend a Student Government banquet dressed in a VS lycra laceup slip and fishnets, while escorted by a pro-gun libertarian who did moonlight as a crossdresser
Pics pls.
Also pro-gun libertarian is a bit of a redundancy, like; pro-pot libertarian & sc*mbag lawyer.
September 2nd, 2008 at 11:53 am
Qwerty…Tell me something I don’t know. The Dem senators are spineless, although I doubt they would have taken us to war if W didn’t sponsor the effort. That’s all I’m saying.
September 2nd, 2008 at 11:53 am
# 93
Do you know Paula McCahon?
September 2nd, 2008 at 11:54 am
#99 - #1 Google response…
September 2nd, 2008 at 11:55 am
11#, 12#, mike, interesting stuff. i urge all active memmbers on this board putting your cynical comments aside and look at this stuff seriously.
September 2nd, 2008 at 11:55 am
Thanks Tom,
That does clear it up for me. I live in Maryland and it appears that they require a 10% deposit at the close of the auction and it is usually listed as a $$ amount.
I then question “is it 10% of the unpaid mortgage price or 10% of the appraisal price?”
I see what you are saying about contacting the bank and trying to negotiate a short sale before the auction closes. In reality I think that these auction sales are comming so fast that there really is no way for them to get anywhere near market price.
When I open the paper and see three pages of trustee sales, auctions, and forclosures for Anne Arundel County, MD (Fifth Richest County in US?). I begin to think that it might be worth showing up to these auction sales and making a horribly underpriced bid just to catch someone off-guard.
Can they have unspecified reserve requirements if they don’t like the lowest bidder?
September 2nd, 2008 at 11:56 am
Dutch intel: US to strike Iran in coming weeks
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1220186494776&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull
September 2nd, 2008 at 11:58 am
99 Shore - Yes. She was my successor. My friends used to call her Little Paula Prozac.
September 2nd, 2008 at 11:58 am
The 3rd page of the Minyanville article was a good one.
The Coming Bank Credit Crunch
Banks in the US are going to need to roll over almost $800 billion dollars in medium-term debt in the next 16 months. Banks borrowed heavily in 2006, a lot of it in 2-3 year floating-rate notes, and now they must refinance those notes.
Say a bank borrowed at LIBOR plus 50bps. In today’s environment, many banks are not going to be able to borrow at such low rates.
Remember the 2 Ohio banks mentioned earlier? These regional banks will have to pay spreads of 7-9%, based on the price of their debt today. If you have to pay 12% to borrow money when prime is at 5% and you’re lending at 6-8%, you clearly cannot make a profit. That means they will have to sell assets or raise very expensive equity capital.
There are a lot of small and regional banks that are in trouble. The FDIC has a list of 117. Out of (I think) 8500 banks, that doesn’t sound bad. But remember: IndyMac, which failed a few months ago, was not on that list. Banks can get into trouble rather quickly if they cannot raise capital, sell assets, or borrow money due to perceived distress.
The problem is that these banks will have less money to lend and will be calling loans from otherwise good customers, which of course makes the economic situation even worse. It is a vicious cycle.
Even many mainstream economists are now suggesting we will be in a recession by the 4th quarter, if we are not in one now. (The 2nd quarter revised GDP was 3.3%. This is an anomaly, and is highly unlikely to be repeated.) The recovery, when it comes, will be tepid until credit spreads signal an end to the credit crisis. It is going to be Muddle Through for 2009. This is NOT going to be good for the stock market. When will it be safe to get back into the water? Pay attention to credit spreads.
One other thing to watch. When the Fed feels it’s no longer necessary to offer “temporary” Term Auction Facilities (loans) to commercial and investment banks, that will be a significant event.
Notice that these were to be temporary. These auctions will last well into 2009 and maybe longer.
September 2nd, 2008 at 11:58 am
# 95
Just wait. What do think the odds are that the, self-described “F***ing Redneck” boyfriend has either video tape or photos of the young, ummm, cough, lady, well, young woman.
The only thing that might save her is that she is under 18.
September 2nd, 2008 at 12:03 pm
bi Says:
“11#, 12#, mike, interesting stuff. i urge all active memmbers on this board putting your cynical comments aside and look at this stuff seriously.”
Seriously? I couldn’t help but notice that the tax rates listed don’t go above 125K. Typical republican deceit. I dare you to list the tax rates proposed for filers who make more than $125K. Only an ignoramus would look at that heavily manipulated cr*p to take something worthwhile from it. Looks like typically fear tactics and you just swallowed the worm.
September 2nd, 2008 at 12:06 pm
# 103
In the coming weeks? Humm, the election is 10 weeks away? If I were a betting man, I would estimate the Friday or Saturday after election day, if O-bam-a wins, that is.
September 2nd, 2008 at 12:06 pm
#92 3b
I don’t think resignation is an option. The party machine is in full grind and it would be like turning an oil tanker. But if she did resign, then who would M replace her with. Apparently Romney and the other front runners are steaming. They are probably looking to 2012 to run on a rebuilding ticket. I think Rudi is probably the only one left who would accept the nod.
September 2nd, 2008 at 12:08 pm
# 109
Is Quale still alive? Cant say he is unqualified; he can fog a mirror and did the job for 4 years.
September 2nd, 2008 at 12:08 pm
Rudi Johnson? I heard he is looking for a job and would add some much needed color to the ticket.
September 2nd, 2008 at 12:10 pm
I suggest Lawrence Taylor. He is used to the NY media and can take biden in a debate, in, well, anything physical.
September 2nd, 2008 at 12:12 pm
Nicholas,
The percentage you need to put down at the auction is generally based on the winning bid. So if the winning bid is $500k and you need to put down 10% that’s 50k. Doesn’t matter what the judgment or assessed value is. At least from the jurisdictions I’m familiar with.
Your county’s website seems to be down so I couldn’t do a quick search for info. One thing I did find that was interesting is that there does not seem to be a standard redemption period. The courts decide the redemption period on a case by case basis. That seems pretty interesting. Other than that I can’t really comment as there are different laws in different places. You’ll need to look up what they are.
I recommend you read a good book on buying foreclosures before doing anything. Not the books they sell on late night tv infomercials.
I wouldn’t recommend going in to make a really lowball bid on a property without doing research. It may turn out you didn’t get what you thought you did. You may have been bidding on a second mortgage and then have to face foreclosure yourself when the first mortgage or other superior lein comes to collect. This isn’t the type of thing you want to get involved in without taking the time to understand what’s going on.
September 2nd, 2008 at 12:23 pm
#27 bi Says:
September 2nd, 2008 at 8:53 am
I saw liberal media and some active members on this board got so excited about palin’s revealing during the weekend.
If you believe the media is “liberal” then you are truly ignorant. We have a corporate media in search of profits. That is it’s only agenda. Period. If the media really was liberal, then Gore would be president right now.
September 2nd, 2008 at 12:37 pm
78 rhymingrealtor
Thanks for the feedback.
September 2nd, 2008 at 12:50 pm
#112 It would be hard, but not to do it, IMO, means McCain will loose.
I think alot of people will just stay home this election.
September 2nd, 2008 at 12:54 pm
imagine what the reinstatement of the capital gains tax on sales of primary residences would do to home values. 25% plumment overnight?
September 2nd, 2008 at 12:54 pm
plummet, that is
September 2nd, 2008 at 12:57 pm
119#, now i finally figured it out why so many obsama fans here.
>imagine what the reinstatement of the capital gains tax on sales of primary residences would do to home values. 25% plumment overnight?
September 2nd, 2008 at 1:15 pm
I found a killer in Bowie Maryland searching some Countrywide forclosure site.
Bought in 2006 for 800,000$ is now on the market for 514,000$
http://www.streamfx.com/CW/frameset.asp?str=12802%20PITTMANS%20PROMISE%20DRIVE&ci=BOWIE&st=MD&zip=20720&pr=522,900.00&cpr=522,900.00&site=Trulia&dt=8-11-2008&myPage=REO-Maryland
That means 300,000 in instant equity right?
September 2nd, 2008 at 1:16 pm
Clot,
Sorry for you loss. This has to be the fastest I’ve seen in a long time.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/football/teams/n/newcastle_united/7593683.stm
September 2nd, 2008 at 1:25 pm
I can’t see restoring capital gains on primary homes having much of an effect on home prices at this point. We’re already squeezing the speculative juice out of the RE market. Only idiots are buying a primary home at this point thinking that they’ll flip it in 24 months, make a boodle of cash and and keep it tax-free with the capital gains exemption.
The old exemption was too strict (once in your lifetime), but the current one is too generous and contributed to the bubble. There’s got to be some middle ground.
September 2nd, 2008 at 1:25 pm
“That means 300,000 in instant equity right?”
Nicholas,
You’re joking right?
September 2nd, 2008 at 1:29 pm
skeptic, you wouldn’t see a 25% decline overnight. Fact is, houses that must to be sold right away have sold for much less than that. The listing prices you see are people who bought and refuse to believe that their house has lost the value that it already has. As long as they can keep making payments on that house, they’ll keep their price tag at that level. Slowly but surely, they run out of money, and have no choice. Sell for less or let the bank come take it. Then you’ll see the decline. In fact, if you reinstated capital gains, I wouldn’t be surprised to see all these yahoos jack up the listing price of their house 20% because they feel entitled to make money off it.
September 2nd, 2008 at 1:39 pm
the ability to profit in the short term has basically evaporated w/r/t RE. but the RE industry has maintained that owning RE is smart in the long term. well, if the cap gains tax is reinstated, it will add one more argument against owning– even in the long run. also, it would further distort the correction as well due to the lock in effect. all in all, it seems to me such a policy would drag out the RE depression and ultimately exacerbate it on the downside.
September 2nd, 2008 at 1:48 pm
Actually if Obama is in office and the higher tax rates are in effect RE becomes a better investment tax wise for people who make over 250K. It becomes a lesser investment for the 70K a year cops and firefighters flipping houses and pocketing gains. Long term RE has and never will be a good investment. A plain old stock fund beats the dickens out of RE longterm.
skep-tic Says:
September 2nd, 2008 at 1:39 pm
the ability to profit in the short term has basically evaporated w/r/t RE. but the RE industry has maintained that owning RE is smart in the long term. well, if the cap gains tax is reinstated, it will add one more argument against owning– even in the long run. also, it would further distort the correction as well due to the lock in effect. all in all, it seems to me such a policy would drag out the RE depression and ultimately exacerbate it on the downside.
September 2nd, 2008 at 1:49 pm
oh, I don’t disagree that over the long haul, the cap gains would have the effect of driving down prices. But overnight, it wouldn’t do a thing. I wouldn’t even change things over a month or two. If you looked last summer, people were listing their houses for well above the 2005 price, even though homes were starting to sell below them. These people were looking to sell for a profit and if you suddenly told them that they got to give up 15% of their profit to Uncle Same, they would say to themselves that they need to sell it for more. There’s no way to convince them their house is not worth what they think it is. The only way people will realize it is when they can no longer make the payments and are forced to sell. Zillow released a study showing that the majority of Americans actually thought their house went up in value this year. Unfortunately, there’s not a stock chart that they could stare at to bring them back to reality. In 2000, people freaked out as they watched their shares of AOL and Yahoo plummet in real time.
September 2nd, 2008 at 1:51 pm
Would not be much of an RE auction if you did not have 100K in your pocket. Heck when I go to the car auction and you buy a 30K car you need 30K. 10% on a 300K house is only 30K. That is chump change for the players on this board, pretty much the coin between your pocket lint at the end of the day. Heck you guys drive Bentleys to pick up your rent checks, you guys are good looking plays with money to burn, let me kick back and us a $20 to light my cuban as I celebrate our successes.
September 2nd, 2008 at 2:07 pm
Wow stock market is now down. Have we completely decoupled from oil prices? Oil is down $8 per barrel and the economic reports were pretty neutral. So much for my earlier gold and oil comments I suppose.
September 2nd, 2008 at 2:07 pm
Regarding the impact of Palin: Why would anyone draw conclusions in advance of her first national public speech and the results of several polls taken from various sources? I would say that very few people on this board have the necessary perspective to make any authoritarian comments. Basically, it is impact of every sixth or seventh person in the States of Ohio, Florida, Colorado, Virginia, maybe Missouri? Further, these are the people on the fence.
September 2nd, 2008 at 2:09 pm
john 129…
you drive your own car???? I send the hired help to pickup the rent checks. I am to busy making money and seducing super models with my decadent life style to pickup a rent check from some poor plebeian slob. Oh, and you light you cirags with $20’s? You are doing it wrong, call me when you light em up with 10K treasury notes.
September 2nd, 2008 at 2:09 pm
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26501863/?GT1=43001
With time running out — and as Mr. McCain discarded two safer choices, Gov. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota and former Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, as too predictable — he turned to Ms. Palin. He had his first face-to-face interview with her on Thursday and offered her the job moments later.
“They didn’t seriously consider her until four or five days from the time she was picked, before she was asked, maybe the Thursday or Friday before,” said a Republican close to the campaign. “This was really kind of rushed at the end, because John didn’t get what he wanted. He wanted to do Joe or Ridge.”
September 2nd, 2008 at 2:11 pm
“Regarding the impact of Palin: Why would anyone draw conclusions in advance of her first national public speech”
It is true we do not have the correct perspective to properly judge how the rest of the country will perceive her. Especially when considering how the whole country perceived the current retard in chief in 1999.
September 2nd, 2008 at 2:23 pm
Fed minutes announced; Dallas & KC wanted a 25bps hike.
September 2nd, 2008 at 2:23 pm
Stu just found 11 & 12 put them out there seem to be solid if you check links. Nom found something to get his in a bunch. Info is good stu even if you don’t like it. Vote for who you want folks, I’m sure most would like a 3rd choice (me included) but this is the hand we got dealt.
AS Nicholas posted women in his house are happy with M’s choice. I think that we will find that most women will be also. Are resident female group are cut from a different cloth than the masses. This is certainly a compliment ladies but you are in the minority.
I’m sure that M will stick with Palin he is that type of guy. Whether you think that is good or bad is your call. It is going to be a tight race not that voting in NJ matters goes Dem every time.
Have to say I am with Nom on this one, going M. Like O but not his taxes & rather have M dealing with Putin & the rest of the bad guys. What ever Bush did he did M is not Bush. I’m sure he will think twice before putting are boys in harms way considering his past. Not to say he will not act if confronted he knows freedom isn’t free. It gets payed for in blood unfortunately. Sometimes mistakenly but this makes the sacrifice even greater by those who do not question there duty when told to go.
Meet a young man the other day 101 st I believe heading to Afghan. Small kid skinny as a rail 2nd tour 19 or so. It was both humbling & one of the proudest moments in my life. Needless to say his money was no good at my place. I can’t even get some of the kids who work for me to do much work (same age)this kid will be getting shot at soon in a fox hole or behind a rock in the mountains freezing. Makes you think.
Ok off soap box you really had to be there & talk to him.
September 2nd, 2008 at 2:26 pm
I only drive my own high end English or Italian cars. I sit in the back when driven in large German or American cars. The last time I drove a Japanese car was back in my impoverished days. I do think a telethon would be appropriate for those poor old blokes forced to gasp, drive Japanese.
I have a Katrina survivior drive my 2009 Caddie DTS once in awhile when I am particularly patriotic and I am quite proud, even prouder by the fact the back seat is big enough to fit both my hot secretaries so I don’t have to pick favorites.
September 2nd, 2008 at 2:26 pm
133#, this is exactly lib’s problem. they always feel they are entitled to win because they think the other party is idiot. this was what in gore’s mind in 1999 and in kerry’s mind in 2003. they all think it is so easy to defeat that so-called idiot. guess what? if bush is allowed to run for 3rd term, he will win again (of course the race should start 2 years ago because he does not care much about poll in his last 4 years).
now, you have the most arrogant two in the tickets. their arrogance can only be matched by the active memmbers on this board.
liberal media and liberal big mouths start to laugh at her experience as a small town mayor. this is exactly what repulican wants. as said in my first post today, their playbook is to put her as “one of us” to most voters in battleground states.
unless there is really serious stuff about her coming up in next few days, current revelation about her is really helping republican ticket big time. good job libs!
September 2nd, 2008 at 2:30 pm
He had his first face-to-face interview with her on Thursday and offered her the job moments later.
ht