Wed 10 Sep 2008
From the Record:
Delinquent loans on residential properties rise
The delinquency rate for mortgage loans, the percentage of foreclosures starting and the percentage of loans in foreclosure on New Jersey residential properties all rose in the second quarter, the Mortgage Bankers Association said Friday.
The delinquency rate increased to 5.43 percent and the percentage of loans that started foreclosure this quarter rose to 0.91 percent. The percentage of loans in foreclosure at the end of the quarter increased to 2.7 percent.
Subprime mortgages on New Jersey properties showed the most trouble. Delinquency rates for subprime adjustable-rate mortgage loans and fixed-rate loans climbed to 21.19 percent and 13.55 percent, respectively. Foreclosure rates starting this quarter on subprime ARM loans increased to 6.8 percent and foreclosure rates starting on subprime fixed loans rose to 2.02 percent.
New Jersey ranked 29th in delinquencies and 12th in foreclosure starts with 16 percent nonprime borrowers compared with a 19 percent U.S. average.
…
But the source of trouble in the mortgage market has shifted from subprime loans made to borrowers with poor credit to homeowners who had solid credit but took out exotic loans with ballooning monthly payments.“The problem that policymakers and Wall Street once assured us was ‘contained’ to sub-prime mortgages has proven to be anything but,” Mike Larson, a real estate analyst with Weiss Research, said in a research note.
…
The latest quarterly figures broke records for late payments, homes entering the foreclosure process and the inventory of loans in foreclosure. The trade group’s records date back to 1979.
Clotpoll, Tom, Rhyming-
You guys have firsthand knowledge of what’s going on and have historical perspective. Does this seem to be heading towards a peak soon or our we just seeing the tip of the iceberg in NJ?
Will the Bailout Alleviate the Housing Crisis?
Link in short & to the point.
“Gee, it doesn’t look to me like the problem is high mortgage rates. Maybe the problem is something else.”
http://seekingalpha.com/article/94770-will-the-bailout-alleviate-the-housing-crisis
From the Boston Herald:
Homeowners with good credit get hit by downturn
The Massachusetts mortgage crisis is going “prime time.”
Late-payment problems are moving beyond people with high-cost subprime loans to hit record numbers of homeowners with “prime” mortgages, too.
“We’re running into more and more people who don’t have subprime loans but who are falling behind anyway,” Len Raymond of Homeowner Options for Massachusetts Elders, a foreclosure-prevention group where prime borrowers make up about a third of clients.
grim, how’d you celebrate your bday?
any grim predictions on the Lehamn announcement today?
Fed Takeover May Not Change Home Prices Much. “Ken Rosen, chairman of the Fisher Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics at UC Berkeley: Moderately lower interest rates on new mortgages could make refinancing and purchasing more affordable for solid credit borrowers who can qualify for the type of loans that Fannie and Freddie buy and back. The [Fannie, Freddie] takeover, however, generally won’t mean money is more readily available for distressed homeowners on the brink of foreclosure, nor will it provide any real assurance for those holding off on purchases for fear values will continue to fall.” (San Francisco Chronicle, Sept. 9)
I guess are home buying plans stay the same.
The rub is I can just hear the NAR & their foot soldiers telling the sheep just the opposite.
By the way any of you guys seen or heard anything out of that Otteau guy. Not sure on spelling of name, are NJ RE guru! Seems to pretty quiet. Maybe Grim should hold a seminar for RE agents we have a long list of speakers to give insights into the TRUE state of the market & future trends. I strongly feel that Gary should close event!
The look on their faces priceless.
not that it matters, but regardless of what’s happening with the RE market, we’re buying when our lease is up in march 09. could rent for another year and just break the lease when we find something, but we don’t want to shaft the owner like that. in nY it was no big deal to break a lease since the market is flush with renters … not so much in Bucks.
no point in waiting for the bottom - we’re planning on staying in this place for 10+ years.
Laughing 6 Where is the fire. Let the 2010 resets play out. Don’t like rental ,to small? 1 more year of insurance on the biggest move in your life just saying.
We were going to start looking in summer of 09. Why do you think summer 10 is better?
We have pretty much given up on ever buying a house in N.J. so we are willing to wait.
Lehman reports early cuts dividend to 5c, looks to spin-off comm & res real estate into separate companies. Eliminated 1500 jobs in 3q.
Well, there goes the after-market rise on LEH.
tosh(9)- And they woke everyone up early for this lame announcement - no solid deals, only future “plans” - no buyer in sight.
Lehman plans sales, sees $3.9 billion loss
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/080910/lehman.html?.v=7
Renter These foreclosures move like snails the sub prime homes aren’t on the market in full force yet I watch the grass grow in my town 1 foot high to seed still no sign.
Couple in my area I know the people split & left bank holding bag still sitting not for sale. I certainly think that it will take till 10 11 to get more bang for the buck or just spend less bucks! No hurry after it is all said & done market flat I will wait 2 years from now just to play it safe. In negotiations on a rental for that period. Renting is so cheap why buy an illiquid asset that is not rising & cost more.
#11 - That was about my reaction too. I don’t think they had too much of a choice though. It was either try to get something that at least looked like positive news out or be traded into the ground.
tosh(14)-
Well, the market already knew that they had to sell the Neurberger(sp?) unit to have any chance at survival - so, I am assuming that this is already priced in or in the process of being priced. LEH did not throw up anything new in the air to keep the kool aid supply up.
Damn - looks like Hank has finally run out of ammo.
Thank you.
I believe in renting as a way to stay financially sound. I would like a yard and the community of neighbors I had in Ohio but I’m not willing to be “one paycheck away from financial disaster.”
Hoboken Awaits Oversight Decision
Hoboken, N.J., officials will learn today how much control the state intends to wield over the city’s finances as the municipality faces a more than $10 million deficit.
http://www.bondbuyer.com/article.html?id=20080909GD6W9Z5X
Just released today internal CITI research.
Washington Mutual has replaced its longtime CEO, Kerry Killinger, with Alan Fishman, the former CEO
of Independence Bank, a $20 billion thrift that was based in New York City. The company also disclosed
that it had entered into a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with the Office of Thrift Supervision.
We are keeping our Sell on the Washington Mutual 5.25s of 2017 (57, dollar price). We regard the
management change as mildly positive, but the submission to the MOU is a negative for the company,
because it highlights, in our opinion, the serious asset quality issues Washington Mutual faces and
indicates a higher level of regulatory scrutiny of the firm.
The management change may mean that the company will be more receptive to a sale, in our opinion. Mr.
Killinger had opposed such a step, as shown by his rejection of an informal approach by JP Morgan in
March 2008. However, we think that potential buyers such as JP Morgan and Wells Fargo could be less
interested in acquiring the company under the current circumstances, and we would think the possibility of
such an acquisition in the near term is low.
We continue to regard JP Morgan as a strong credit, but the firm has to deal with asset quality problems in
its own home equity and prime mortgage portfolios. In our opinion, Wells Fargo would make an offer for
Washington Mutual primarily as a defensive measure, i.e., to keep JP Morgan out of its backyard.
The MOU, which focuses on risk management and compliance with the Bank Secrecy Act, represents a
serious slap on the wrist for Washington Mutual, in our view. However, Washington Mutual did not have
to pay a fine, nor did it undertake to raise new capital or increase its liquidity. Nonetheless, Washington
Mutual has committed to provide the OTS with an updated multiyear business plan and forecast for its
earnings, asset quality, capital and business segment performance. The description of the MOU indicates to
us that the regulators have concerns about the company’s asset quality, and its prospects for returning to
profitability but they are relatively comfortable with its liquidity and capital position.
“There are no more one-night stands; you have to assume it’s a marriage,” said Gevry, 41, who manages $3 billion in fixed-income assets.
Laughing, why not be up front with the owner and go month to month instead of signing a year lease? In a renter’s market, a MTM tenant is better than no tenant.
Renter I have the yard & neighbors to much room (big guy off to school)so it is a no brain-er for me. As I remember your sit. tight with kids different to say the least.
That one paycheck thing, smart thinking.
So, we have a financial system on the brink of…., well, onthe brink. We have foreign relations issues that hold the potential to be on a par with 1914-19 and 1936-45. And, we have budgetary, energy, and assorted other issues of great magnitued facing the nation. So, in light of the foregoing, what has the presidential race come to? Read them and weep:
replace the xxxx with h t t and p without spaces to activate the links (Methinks this might circumvent the filter)
xxxx://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/dailypolitics/2008/09/paterson-in-mccainpalin-crossh.html
xxxx://news.bostonherald.com/news/2008/view.bg?articleid=1118046&format=text
In essence, the two camps sound like whiny third graders:
O: “Mrs. Public, Mrs. Public Johnny and his friends called me ‘a community organizer! By that he was making fun of my race’”
M: “It’s not true Mrs. Public. I wasn’t making fun of his skin color. Besides it’s true hw was a community organizer.”
O’s friend: “Mrs. Public, M is no good.”
M. “Leave me alone, its not true. Besides, Mrs. Public, O called my friend S a pig.”
O: “Did not. I was just using an old, Old, OLD expression. You know that OLD!!!!! expression, right Johnny.”
M: “Mrs. Public! O is calling me old! Make him stop.”
God, forbid the two camps should talk policy and how we dig out of our deep hole,which is starting to fill with water causing the sides to start to crumble.
So, we have a financial system on the brink of…., well, onthe brink. We have foreign relations issues that hold the potential to be on a par with 1914-19 and 1936-45. And, we have budgetary, energy, and assorted other issues of great magnitued facing the nation. So, in light of the foregoing, what has the presidential race come to? Read them and weep:
first link: second follows
http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/dailypolitics/2008/09/paterson-in-mccainpalin-crossh.html
In essence, the two camps sound like whiny third graders:
O: “Mrs. Public, Mrs. Public Johnny and his friends called me ‘a community organizer! By that he was making fun of my race’”
M: “It’s not true Mrs. Public. I wasn’t making fun of his skin color. Besides it’s true hw was a community organizer.”
O’s friend: “Mrs. Public, M is no good.”
M. “Leave me alone, its not true. Besides, Mrs. Public, O called my friend S a pig.”
O: “Did not. I was just using an old, Old, OLD expression. You know that OLD!!!!! expression, right Johnny.”
M: “Mrs. Public! O is calling me old! Make him stop.”
God, forbid the two camps should talk policy and how we dig out of our deep hole,which is starting to fill with water causing the sides to start to crumble.
Kettle,
Back to back hurricanes in the gulf, Opec cuts production, Russian ships in Venezuala and troops in Georgia and oil continues to sink. Something stinks in Denmark.
If someone would be so kind as to post:
Dr. Housing Bubble Blog 9/9
“Dear prospective Buyer, You Don’t Deserve to Own a Home.”
I think everyone will find it informative and it points out:
“The bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is simply an extension of the idiotic mentality that everyone should own a home.”
“The bailout is simply a misconception of this housing entitlement mentality. People don’t deserve homes. You EARN a home. You WORK for a home. You SAVE for a home. It appears that this must sound like a foreign language to many like Hank Paulson and Ben Bernanke who are simply perpetuating this Ponzi scheme for all.”
“Somewhere in our collective societal psyche, either through pop investment books or television shows, people got the impression that real estate was the quickest way to turn a fast buck.”
(Home ownership) “It wasn’t always like that. In fact, there was a time when the majority of Americans didn’t own their homes and this wasn’t that long ago.”
“For nearly 30 years, from 1900 to 1930, the home ownership rate remained steady at about 43.6%. It dipped a few points during the Great Depression but then skyrocketed upward during the baby boom era. Guess what was created in 1938? Fannie Mae.”
Home ownership rates per country are presented as well (Ours peaked in 2004 at 69.2%)
“Ironically, some of the countries with the biggest housing bubbles like Spain, Ireland, and the UK have similar or higher homeownership rates than the US.”
Data is also presented regarding the Freddie/Fannie mortgage portfolios that show only a fraction actually committed to 30-year fixed single family residential mortgages.
It is a bit of a rant but the subject is rarely discussed. Home ownership is not a right - it is a priveledge..you earn it. Once that mentality was lost…we were goners.
So, we have a financial system on the brink of…., well, onthe brink. We have foreign relations issues that hold the potential to be on a par with 1914-19 and 1936-45. And, we have budgetary, energy, and assorted other issues of great magnitued facing the nation. So, in light of the foregoing, what has the presidential race come to? Read them and weep:
I can’t post the links because they use the dreaderd O and M words.
In essence, the two camps sound like whiny third graders:
O: “Mrs. Public, Mrs. Public Johnny and his friends called me ‘a community organizer! By that he was making fun of my race’”
M: “It’s not true Mrs. Public. I wasn’t making fun of his skin color. Besides it’s true hw was a community organizer.”
O’s friend: “Mrs. Public, M is no good.”
M. “Leave me alone, its not true. Besides, Mrs. Public, O called my friend S a pig.”
O: “Did not. I was just using an old, Old, OLD expression. You know that OLD!!!!! expression, right Johnny.”
M: “Mrs. Public! O is calling me old! Make him stop.”
God, forbid the two camps should talk policy and how we dig out of our deep hole,which is starting to fill with water causing the sides to start to crumble.
#5 mike: I thought I saw someting here last week, where Otteau said prices will start to RISE in NJ in Spring of 09!!
So any credibility this guy had, has in my mind disappeared.
#8 renter: Summer of 09 is fine to buy, and you will buy a house in NJ
Replace the xxxx with h t tp
Replace the **** with the rest of the letters from the name
xxxx://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/dailypolitics/2008/09/paterson-in-m*****pal**-crossh.html
xxxx://news.bostonherald.com/news/2008/view.bg?articleid=1118046&format=text
#13 mike: Good strategy, but I do think there will be excellent oppotunities in 2009 to buy.
Replace the xxxx with h t tp
Replace the **** with the rest of the letters from the name
replace 123 with three Ws
replace ttt with h t m and l
xxxx://123.nydailynews.com/blogs/dailypolitics/2008/09/paterson-in-m*****pal**-crossh.ttt
xxxx://123.bostonherald.com/news/2008/view.bg?articleid=1118046&format=text
Well, I tried to get the links up but the filters are better than my brain without enough coffee.
3b “said prices will start to RISE in NJ in Spring of 09!!”
Is that like when a drowned corpse bloats and rises to the surface of a stagnant pond?
With apologies to The Who:
Meet the new clowns in charge of Asbury Park. Same as the old clowns in charge of Asbury Park?
http://www.app.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080910/NEWS/809100378&referrer=FRONTPAGECAROUSEL
ASBURY PARK — City and Madison Marquette officials plan to meet today to negotiate a redeveloper agreement covering Convention Hall, the Paramount Theatre and the renovated boardwalk pavilions and other entertainment venues the developer now owns on the beachfront.
The city and developer had attempted to get a required agreement in place by Memorial Day or shortly thereafter as the renovated pavilions began to open for the summer. But that attempt failed.
City officials allowed the shops to open, but said next Monday would be the new deadline for the agreement to be done or the dozens of new shops and restaurants faced being shut down.
#29 shore: Excellent description.
Is the public so dense and are reporters in this state so dense as to think that this constitutes an inflation-adjusted toll increase? Would that housing had behaved this way over the past ten years.
http://www.app.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080910/NEWS/809100384&referrer=FRONTPAGECAROUSEL
Toll plan would hit wallets hard
A proposed toll-increase package introduced Tuesday would raise the cost of commuting for drivers on the Garden State Parkway by 103 percent and hike the price for New Jersey Turnpike drivers by 110 percent by 2023.
[snip]
grim: Why no Rose for GTG?
HEHEHE et al
The Kettle1 announcement of the day
I now agree with Bi. Oil is highly likely to continue downward for at least the next year. I will re-evaluate my stance then. Without writing a thesis, i have come to the conclusion that due to global finance issues oil could go below and stay below 100 until at least next fall.
I do see this as a risky call on my part as the fundamental intermediate and long term energy supply issues have not changed and will indeed continue to worsen. But at this point in time i feel the financial effects outweigh the scarcity effects.
HEHEHE, I agree that there is indeed some stinky cheese floating around the energy market, but i currently see that only speeding up downward trends, not actually driving the trend.
Kettle1 is agreeing with Bi?
Have my eyes failed me?
shore 28
use tinyURL. there is a firefox extension is you use that browser.
tiny url
http://www.tiny.cc/
Grim,
WHat HTML tags are allowed here?
3b no doubt a good move in buying can be made summer 09 on an reo or with an enlightened seller (rare breed). My sit is dif so I’ll just wait for capitulation to be over & done take my pick of the litter.
Then no need to lowball or banks selling as is, you do all inspects, responsible for everything screw them.
Stu,
Dont worry, Bi will now say that oil is going to 200
Now if only they could stop nominating nuts like Bob Barr…
Why Libertarians Should Vote for O (1)
First, war. War is the antithesis of the libertarian philosophy of consent, voluntarism and trade. With every war in American history Leviathan has grown larger and our liberties have withered. War is the health of the state. And now, fulfilling the dreams of Big Brother, we are in a perpetual war.
A country cannot long combine unlimited government abroad and limited government at home. The R party has become the party of war and thus the party of unlimited government.
With war has come FEAR, magnified many times over by the governing party. Fear is pulling Americans into the arms of the state. If only we were better at resisting. Alas, we Americans say that we love liberty but we are fair-weather lovers. Liberty will flourish only with peace.
Have libertarians gained on other margins in the past eight years? Not at all. Under the Rs we have been sailing due South-West on the Nolan Chart – fewer civil liberties and more government, including the largest new government program in a generation, the Medicare prescription drug plan, and the biggest nationalization since the Great Depression. Tax cuts, the summum bonum of R economic policy, are a sham. The only way to cut taxes is to cut spending and that has not happened.
The libertarian voice has not been listened to in R politics for a long time. The Rs take the libertarian wing of the party for granted and with phony rhetoric and empty phrases have bought our support on the cheap. Thus - since voice has failed - it is time for exit. Remember that if a political party can count on you then you cannot count on it.
Exit is the right strategy because if there is any hope for reform it is by casting the Rs out of power and into the wilderness where they may relearn virtue. Libertarians understand better than anyone that power corrupts. The R party illustrates. Lack of power is no guarantee of virtue but Rs are a far better - more libertarian - party out-of-power than they are in power. When in the wilderness, Rs turn naturally to a critique of power and they ratchet up libertarian rhetoric about free trade, free enterprise, abuse of government power and even the defense of civil liberties. We can hope that new leaders will arise in this libertarian milieu.
http://www.marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2008/09/why-libertarian.html
Ket agreed with bi the world ends 08!
3b I didn’t want to ask, Grim are you banned
from the Rose. Wild night maybe.
If 99% of African Americans vote for “O”, is that a sign of Racism? If 99% of European Extraction Americans vote for “M” is that a sign of Racism? If 99% of Gays vote for Barney Frank what type of “ism” is that? Hard to keep score anymore? Mormonism is definately out, ala Romney, in a Country founded on Religious Tolerance. Very Confusing. It would appear that the more Laws we enact, the less Freedom we enjoy. Probably because >50% of all elected official are Lawyers. That means > 50% of the population needs to get Law Degrees so that our leaders adequately represent the backrounds of the Public.
Mike, 40
its worse then that. The financial and housing mess will clear up just as we transitioninto a real energy crisis. There may be a few years lag periodd as economic activity ramps back up, but we will likely see a 1-2 punch, financial crisis - energy crisis.
It is likely that the current financial crisis will delay the energy crisis due to reduced economic activity hence less energy consumption. The catch is that for a number of reason (better left to another blog) the delay will probably also make the energy crisis worse then it would have been.
regardless of all that. Shore’s comment at #24 is 100% on target!
Is this real? Anyone know the story behind this image? Is it Johnny C smooth talking the Rs at the Statehouse?
http://www.gardenstateparkway.com/images/jonnyboy.jpg
shoreguy: 43
not to be cliche, but looks shopped to me.
Mike, Stu:
The catch to my change in opinion on oil…..
I think the (oz AU / barrel of oil) will stay approx constant
Laughing, why not be up front with the owner and go month to month instead of signing a year lease? In a renter’s market, a MTM tenant is better than no tenant.
We asked when we signed if we could do month-to-month and he said no. He said we have to give him 3 months advance on when we’re leaving. Dont know if this will change once the year is up; perhaps he will like us paying on time, using the same cleaning lady he uses, etc, etc.
If 99% of African Americans vote for “O”, is that a sign of Racism? If 99% of European Extraction Americans vote for “M” is that a sign of Racism?
no.
no.
/eager to see how SKF does today after yesterday’s rapid rise
//ducks for mere mention of said ETF
Ket 42 oil will go down we will back of getting off it until it’s to late (as if it is not already). Then when it hits the fan watch out. Over simplified yes but the crux of what you have been posting on oil.
I gather there is no reason to rush to fill the heating oil tank ket?
of = off 47
market opens weeeee!
NICE!
“I hope Lehman doesn’t succumb this time either because we’re running out of investment banks,” said Sean Egan, president of Egan-Jones Ratings Co. “And it takes 100 years to create a good one.”
Mike,
As i said before, my stance is risky, because now that the russian bear is back on the scene, currently tenuous geopolitical factors become even shakier. The bear has an agenda and our current crop of inept american politicians has no idea how to deal with the bear. They think its cold war II. They couldnt be more wrong. Russia has been stating their goals and methods for achieving such goals for years, yet no one seems to have listened.
Russia has the ability to seriously complicate mideast energy politics for the US and for europe.
All green arrows except metals & natural gas for the most part. Should be an interesting day.
Going to be an interesting day to say the least. Makes all the pain of still being in my Montclair rental go away.
Mike, 48
Cant comment. short term behavior has been acting in unexpected ways as HEHE pointed out. My stances are based of 6 month + time lines in general. Ask Bi and the opposite of what he says. he’s the short term guy
Yes ket the Bear has the oil now. All the more reason for us to find other ways to power our country. A holes in DC have no clue. Ket do we really have as much natural gas as I have been hearing? Or is it bull?
#37
We will start to look in ‘09 but we will not buy until we know exactly what we are getting into which means an inspection.
Saw gas today for $3.25 on Morris Ave. in Union. Once gas falls below $3, will there be a glut of hybrids for sale? :P
Ket if bi says buy I will most certainly wait.
Can anyone find that cool new euphemism that Fuld coined for firing people?
Something such as “…adjusting human capital…”
“Russia has been stating their goals and methods for achieving such goals for years, yet no one seems to have listened.”
Hitler did the same thing, as have many of the others who have caused trouble for the United States and the rest of the world over the past 100 years.
Just like bubbles, it seems, “This time is different.”
Chifi, I dont know about Fuld but, I love the British term: “made redundant.”
Renter 57 Yes an inspection of course. On the REOs in my area septic, oil tanks (limited nat gas)you are taking on a lot even the co is your problem. I want a discount plus if it is all on me so far have not seen any at that level IMO.
could i get an address?
MLS #: 2570001
thank you
#52 - As i said before, my stance is risky
If you believe that we’re heading into or are already in a deflationary period then it’s a logical supposition to make.
Inflation as a solution to the credit problem was a solution only if there was a viable asset for a consumer to leverage. That appears to finally be gone.
Gold down to 781 tempted.
Mike,
natural Gas:
The US has a substantial amount. The catch: How much we can economically extract depends on price and on EROEI. the EROEI effect is not obvious but it is there. If you look at extraction data the cost per MCF ( unit of gas voulme) goes up rapidly when extracting gas from the unconventional gas beds in the US.
The situation is similar to oil shale. We technically have massive oil deposits in the US in the form of oil shale, but the majority of it is not economically viable to extract.
NG is the same way. yes, in pure #’s we have a huge reserve. but the amount that can be extracted for prices in a reasonable range is only a fraction of the total amount. If you want a rough rule of thumb, whenever you hear about oil or natural gas, assume that we will only ever recover 30% of the numbers the media reports.
There are also secondary costs that people have not realized yet. See the catskill aquifer issues. NG extraction has the potential to contaminate the NYC water supply and NYC has no water filtration system built into their water supply. any solution could cost 100’s of millions of $. New mexico had huge problems with this when NG extraction was done there.
65 tosh,
yes that is at the core of my logic
Wamu at $3.02!
Shore 61 There will be war.Not all out but it is going to get ugly.World is over due for it. To many people (not enough resources), population control of dominant species, nature made us this way.
We have to have the tendency to kill each other off no other thing on the planet can touch us. Cynical but dispassionate view on human behavior.
Ket 67 Thanks, I new there had to be a catch.
Figured you would be on it.
mike,
an example of NG gas production data
Investment in
Quarter Oper. Costs Property & Equip
(per MCF) (per MCF produced
during qtr)
Q2-2003 $2.27 $58.86
Q2-2004 2.60 63.54
Q2-2005 3.11 120.80
Q2-2006 3.90 116.52
Q2-2007 4.50 154.00
Q2-2008 4.73 142.71
mike,
an example of NG gas production data
Investment in
Quarter Oper. Costs Property & Equip
(per MCF) (per MCF produced
during qtr)
Q2-2003 $2.27 $58.86
Q2-2004 2.60 63.54
Q2-2005 3.11 120.80
Q2-2006 3.90 116.52
Q2-2007 4.50 154.00
Q2-2008 4.73 142.71
#39
I would agree that the war and the FISA issue should ordinarily tend to push libertarians toward Mr. O, but he is a disaster on taxation, so that is why they won’t vote for him.
also, most libertarians are gun nuts, so Mr. O is suspect there as well.
#74 - Actually, O’s position on FISA alienated a number of libertarians.
on a scale of 1-10, with 8 being WAMU and 9 being lehman and 10 being indymac, how much trouble would you guys say Goldman is in?
and as this bad news continues how will it affect the housing market this winter? will there be an impact?
I’ve been looking for historical avg rents data to get a feel for how rents increase/decrease during a recessionary period. Anyone know where to find it? I’ve been trying to google it and looked on HUD’s website, but can’t seem to find the right data. I would imagine that rents actually decrease over a recessionary period. Though there is a likelihood that more renters enter the market since people may lose their homes, I would imagine a good amount of people may move out entirely or move back in w/ parents etc, creating more rental inventory. I would impact the rent vs. buy calculation as now rents are declining as well as home prices declining. This may be a factor contributing to the long turnaround times in the RE market.
Tosh ket 68 still trying to get my self on board for the deflation scenario. Good for me plenty of cash that is unless the whole monetary system goes to sh*t. Then just load up on ammo. Got to get to the store for more bullets.
Mike,
here is the data in an image format so you can read it
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_lsF4HSdqo04/SMfWbj5xb1I/AAAAAAAAAkw/2f-v0KNy-Cc/s1600/untitled.bmp
#76
“Actually, O’s position on FISA alienated a number of libertarians.”
Tosh– good point– I forgot about this. Mr. O is shifting positions rapidly these days (see also latest claim that he would wait and see whether to raise taxes). Mr. M shifted as well, so he has diminished credibility, but more of Mr. O’s shifts have come during his campaign (although when was he not campaigning) so they are more visible.
Mike, given that i am Mr Doom&Gloom….
I see deflation followed by hyperinflation. with hyperinflation occurring only after a collapse of the bond market.
disclaimer: i earned my economics degree from a nigerian prince who had his billion dollar account frozen and asked me to help him in return for a 20% cut Still waiting for the check :(
rental market is definitely weakening in tri state area with loss of wall st jobs. if you believe the price to rent ratio should remain relatively constant, this would seem to indicate that prices need to fall even further to close the gap
ket,
The check CAN’T come until you send the $20,000 exit tax. C’mon. EVERYONE knows that.
I am looking for a used BMW, was at dealership yesterday and guy was telling me there is no recession, he is banging out 3,5,7 series no problem. Guy then told me he used to sell corvettes mainly at a GM dealership for around 20 years. He said in 1991/1992 recession he could not give away a corvette, now he says this is a media created recession. He said the rich are still rich, doctors, lawyers, IB etc. But last time even the rich got hit big. My friend is at auction today and their are tons of American SUVs etc. that middle class people dumped going for a song. But the high end cars are still going strong. I guess that is why Obama has support to milk the rich, as the people who were not foolish with their money are only 5% of the population and the other 95% who blew their money want to rob that 5% so they can continue their leased BMW 5 bedroom house lifestyle on 50K a year.
Ket 82 If you are right I buy during deflation then everything goes through the roof. As I said it would be to good to be true for me, so will not happen. A guy can hope.
BklynHawk #1,
I know you didn’t ask me but 3 bedroom townhomes in my neighborhood in P-way were selling around 380K in 2005 and are in the 300-315K range today. If this rate of price decline continues we’ll be below 2003 prices by 2010.
Mike,
I am not a doomer in the real sense.
I do not want this scenario to happen. It would be painful for everyone and would have impacts for a generation. But such times of turmoil are when fortunes are made and lost.
Shore 84
???????
skep-tic,
yes. exactly. i just want to get an idea of how the rental price trend plays out in markets such as early 90’s and early 80’s, these were all recessionary times associated with RE busts. Those who are renting, therefore have less incentive to buy as their rents decrease and prices would need to decline more to change the equilibrium. May change my buying outlook to 2012.
I am completely amazed at this election. It speaks volumes tha M and P can stand up and paint O as a Washington insider. M, who has been in politics and employed by the govt. for most of his life, is the outsider. On more than one occasion I’ve heard that the Dems are the party of unwed mothers, but SP is a hero because her daughter was knocked up.
I have a feeling that momentum has changed and this election is M’s to lose. But I’ve heard the Republicans spin the truth so much that it’s clear that people have no interest in the truth.
skep 83 I agree I tell landlords (bag holders in trouble)I will help you out heat & maintain your place but at my price so maybe you only lay out 2-3 hundred a month to keep your property instead of the whole
vig. I’m moving on 2 guys now lets see who bites.If not I have lease until Jul can leave whenever I want he thinks he can sell
it, fat chance.
world opinion poll on McKain and OHBAMA
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/7606100.stm
Ket,
Re. your question marks. My comment (The check CAN’T come until you send the $20,000 exit tax. C’mon. EVERYONE knows that.
)was in response to this, and meant in jest:
“i earned my economics degree from a nigerian prince who had his billion dollar account frozen and asked me to help him in return for a 20% cut Still waiting for the check :(”
Ket,
Per the BBC:
“The check CAN’T come until you send the $20,000 exit tax. C’mon. EVERYONE knows that.”
That is reason enough to vote for M.
92,
sorry, not firing on all cylinders today.
WM 2.83
the issue of renting vs. buying in a lot of places around NYC comes down to taxes. if you’re looking at the mortgage alone with the tax deduction, buying is getting fairly close to equivalent rent. But when you add on $1500 per month in taxes, the two are still very far apart. I have seen lots of price to rents comparisons over the past couple of years, but I do not think I have seen any which take into account the degree to which taxes increased rapidly during the bubble
lets try that again,
Ket,
Per the BBC/;
“People outside the US would prefer Barack Obama to become US president ahead of John McCain, a BBC World Service poll suggests.
Democrat Mr Obama was favoured by a four-to-one margin across the 22,500 people polled in 22 countries. ”
That is reason enough to vote for M.
lets try that again,
Ket,
Per the BBC/;
“People outside the US would prefer BO to become US president ahead of John McC, a BBC World Service poll suggests.
Democrat Mr O was favoured by a four-to-one margin across the 22,500 people polled in 22 countries. ”
That is reason enough to vote for M.
89 - d2b
It seems like this country is full of people who make more than 250K and afraid of their taxes going up under O.
Skep,
Most folks would be better off putting that $1500/mo into savings or land someplace.
Victorian,
Mrs. Shore and I sure are.
Update - 2008-09-08: The Mortgage Lender Implode-O-Meter has received credible information that GMAC may file for bankruptcy as early as Wednesday, September 10, 2008. We do know they are scrambling to move/sell assets prior to this tentative filing date, and we are attempting to confirm the information received.
GMAC’s Gina Proia in Media Relations got back to us and suggests “There is no basis for this type of speculation.” A full statement of denial is here.
Described on their web site as GMAC Financial Services, GMAC “operates in approximately 40 countries in automotive finance, real estate finance, insurance and commercial finance businesses.”
On Nov. 30, 2006, GM sold a 51 percent controlling interest in GMAC to a consortium of investors led by Cerberus Capital Management, L.P., a private investment firm, and included Citigroup Inc., Aozora Bank Ltd. and a subsidiary of The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc.
According to Bloomberg, Aozora Bank Ltd., the Japanese lender controlled by Cerberus Capital Management LP, fell to a record low in Tokyo trading after a report said it may post a loss for the fiscal first half ending Sept. 30.
“Aozora plans to take a writedown of 17.8 billion yen this year on an investment in GMAC after the partly owned finance unit of General Motors Corp. recorded a $2.5 billion loss in the second quarter.”
Stuart Hoffman, chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group (commenting on the Freddie/Fannie bailout), expects “the economy will flatline” which does not boost the overall outlook for investments like their part in GMAC.
Exactly which GMAC units are involved has yet to be ascertained. Stay tuned.
http://ml-implode.com/ailing/lender_ResidentialCapital,LLC*_2007-01-16.html
skep-tic,
w/out a doubt taxes should be included in the calculation. My personal spreadsheet takes into account RE taxes, utilities, maintenance, insurance and mort. int. tax deduction. To not do that would be fooling yourself. Did I miss anything?
SP’s Alaskonomics
By Michael Kinsley
SP thinks she is a better American than you because she comes from a small town, and a superior human being because she isn’t a journalist and has never lived in Washington and likes to watch her kids play hockey. Although P praised John McC in her acceptance speech as a man who puts the good of his country ahead of partisan politics, McC pretty much proved the opposite with his selection of a running mate whose main asset is her ability to reignite the culture wars. So maybe Governor P does represent everything that is good and fine about America, as she herself maintains. But spare us, please, any talk about how she is a tough fiscal conservative.
P has continued to repeat the already exposed lie that she said “No, thanks” to the famous “bridge to nowhere” (McC’s favorite example of wasteful federal spending). In fact, she said “Yes, please” until the project became a symbol and political albatross.
Back to reality. Of the 50 states, AK ranks No. 1 in taxes per resident and No. 1 in spending per resident. Its tax burden per resident is 2 1/2 times the national average; its spending, more than double. The trick is that AK’s government spends money on its own citizens and taxes the rest of us to pay for it. Although P, like McC, talks about liberating ourselves from dependence on foreign oil, there is no evidence that being dependent on AKn oil would be any more pleasant to the pocketbook.
AK is, in essence, an adjunct member of OPEC. It has four different taxes on oil, which produce more than 89% of the state’s unrestricted revenue. On average, three-quarters of the value of a barrel of oil is taken by the state government before that oil is permitted to leave the state. AK residents each get a yearly check for about $2,000 from oil revenues, plus an additional $1,200 pushed through by P last year to take advantage of rising oil prices. Any sympathy the governor of AK expresses for folks in the lower 48 who are suffering from high gas prices or can’t afford to heat their homes is strictly crocodile tears.
As if it couldn’t support itself, AK also ranks No. 1, year after year, in money it sucks in from Washington. In 2005 (the most recent figures), according to the Tax Foundation, AK ranked 18th in federal taxes paid per resident ($5,434) but first in federal spending received per resident ($13,950). Its ratio of federal spending received to federal taxes paid ranks third among the 50 states, and in the absolute amount it receives from Washington over and above the amount it sends to Washington, AK ranks No. 1.
Under the state constitution, the governor of AK has unusually strong powers to shape the state budget. At the R National Convention, P bragged that she had vetoed “nearly $500 million” in state spending during her two years as governor. This amounts to less than 2% of the proposed budget. That’s how much this warrior for you (the people) against it (the government) could find in wasteful spending under her control.
One thing B O and McC disagree on is an oil windfall–profits tax. McC is against it, on the theory that it is a tax and therefore bad, and also that it would discourage domestic production. O is for it, on the theory that if oil companies can make a nice profit when oil sells for $50 per bbl., they can still make a nice profit when it sells for more than $100, even if the government takes a bit and spreads the money around to those who are hurting from higher oil prices.
Although P’s words side with McC in this dispute, her actions side with O. Her major legislative accomplishment has been to revamp AK’s windfall-profits tax in order to increase the state’s take. AK calls it a “clear and equitable share” tax. The state assumes that extracting oil from the tundra costs about $25 per bbl. and takes as much as 75% of the difference between that and the sale price.
Why is a windfall-profits tax good for AK but not for the U.S.? Well, it’s obvious, isn’t it? People in AK are better than people in the rest of the U.S. They’re more American. Although there are small towns and farms and high school hockey teams in the lower 48, there are fewer down here, per capita, than in AK. And there are many more journalists and pollsters and city dwellers and other undesirables who might benefit if every American had the same right to leech off the government as do the good citizens of SP’s AK.
http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1839724,00.html
Victorian,
Lots of people gave M trouble about saying $5 Million was the beginning of rich, but he was not necessarilly far off. Unless one need not worry about ever earning another dollar ans still have the ability to have a comfortable (non-poverty-level life) one is not rich. To folks earning $15,000 a year and less, those earning twice, three, four, and five times that income may “seem” rich; however, “seem” is all it is.
We work like dogs for our money, we are outside the pension systems of the public employees, and others. We are on the hook for our childrens’ education. Those of us who are self employed pay both employee and employer share of social security taxes, etc.
When it comes down to it, if the ship sinks, the truely rich will take to the lifeboats and the helecopters and make it to dry land safely. The folks who are living on $75,000/yr and below will be the first to drown. Nevertheless, weven those earning a few hundred thousand a year will soon follow. It is just a matter of time; the result is the same.
Therefore, when O starts talking as if those of us in higher (but not BLOODY HIGH) income levels should be soaked some more to pay for bloated programs, yea, we get concerned. Mrs. Shore and I pay over 60% of what we make in taxes.
In the 80s, I thought David Stockman was evil. With some more experience and a bit of hindsight, he was correct. We will never get government under control until we limit the government’s ability to tax. The same holds true for states and municipalities. Once we have our budgets under control through cost cutting — and by that I mean in surplus, I do not have any willingness to pay more in taxes. If we were in surplus and some form of surcharge would pay off the debt sooner, come talk to me.
O keeps saying “I have not said I will raise your taxes.” For the most part, this is true. Except, his proposals will take more money and, inasmuch as he is not proposing offsetting cost cutting, revenue — umm, taxes — will go up.
Whilst the increased taxes may start with people above $250K/yr, the folks below that level of income should not be confident that they will not be extended to them as well.
On the tax issue, I think Fred Thompson had the best line: Mr. O only wants to take out of the other side of the bucket, not your side.
I look at it like this. Let’s say I work for a partnership, LLC or S Corp which has pass through taxation. My boss(es) are taxed on their profits at individual rates. They also have to pay double payroll taxes because they are effectively self employed.
Let’s say my boss makes $1M per year in this business. Well, currently, he’s probably already paying about $350,000 per year in fed income tax. He’s probably paying another $50,000+ in state income tax. Payroll taxes aren’t significant percentage because of the current cap, but this guy is already paying over 40% of his income to fed and state gov’t before we get to sales and property taxes.
Now, under Mr. O, this guy is going to pay an additional $40,000 in fed income tax. Let’s say I am a secretary– that extra $40,000 could be the difference between me having a job or not. Mr. O is also going to uncap the payroll tax above $250,000. That is really going to cost the boss— almost $100,000 more in taxes. That is potentially two more jobs lost.
This is why it is a falsehood to suggest that we can simply tax the rich and everyone else will benefit.
laughing - it’s doing great!
100 - Shore
I would sure understand your point of view, but I think that you are in the top 10% bracket in terms of earnings.
What are the rest of the people thinking? I sure hope that SP will start offering Moose hunting classes for these people.
laughing, I have been a landlord for over 20 years and when I have a good tenant I will go month-to-month after the first year’s lease as long as the tenant agrees not to leave during the winter and gives 60 days notice. Try asking, you might be surprised. The rental market is slow in my area now.
The stealth bailout, illustrated, in close to real time
Posted on Monday, September 8th, 2008 by bsetser
Yves Smith – responding to PIMCO’s Gross — noted that governments, through the increase in their central bank reserves, have been intervening to support the US financial markets for a while now. She is, of course, right.
http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/09/08/the-stealth-bailout-illustrated-in-close-to-real-time/
Most folks would be better off putting that $1500/mo into savings or land
Instead, they spend it.
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/blog/ball_dont_lie/post/For-sale-Allen-Iverson-s-six-bedroom-home-in-Vi?urn=nba,106478
High end comp killer in villanova,PA. Price has been dropped by $1mm from 2003 purchase price to $4mm now. A loss of 20%.
In the current market, wouldnt it make more sense to initiate a new 1 year lease as opposed to a month to month? If the land lord get foreclosed on, NJ law requires the bank to honor your lease terms. And if you find an opportunity during the lease, then is breaking the lease and losing 1 month security going to change the financial decision? I hope not assuming you are talking about a security of 3-5K.
laughing, I have been a landlord for over 20 years and when I have a good tenant I will go month-to-month after the first year’s lease as long as the tenant agrees not to leave during the winter and gives 60 days notice. Try asking, you might be surprised. The rental market is slow in my area now.
i think we’ll approach him in January about this. He seems like a fair and reasonable guy. we have run into a bit of a bug problem (nothing major, but with no basement, we see sometimes them on the first floor, which sux; just had the exterminator come yesterday, which ran $137), but otherwise, it’s a nice townhouse (only 1700 a month, which is how we’re able to stack the chips).
Victorian,
Obama is gunning — first — for the top 5%. But make no mistake, if he starts “soaking the rich” (and by rich I mean middle middle class, upper middle class, and lower upper class — the physicians, lawyers, small business owners, etc.) it will eventually extent to everyone UNLESS the budget gets cut. And, if the budget gets cut, there is no need to “soak” the upper 5%-2%. The upper 1% has the advantage of moving VAST sums offshore and never paying another single dollar in taxes on it, so I omit them from this discussion.
Unless and until you hear concrete proposals for which federal agencies, programs, projects, etc. that O is going to eliminate, consolidate, reduce, slash, etc., hold onto your wallet because YOU TOO are in the crosshairs, even if O does not himself believe it as he speaks now.
don’t you take a FICO hit when you break a lease? I always assumed so
BO is gunning — first — for the top 5%. But make no mistake, if he starts “soaking the rich” (and by rich I mean middle middle class, upper middle class, and lower upper class — the physicians, lawyers, small business owners, etc.) it will eventually extent to everyone UNLESS the budget gets cut. And, if the budget gets cut, there is no need to “soak” the upper 5%-2%. The upper 1% has the advantage of moving VAST sums offshore and never paying another single dollar in taxes on it, so I omit them from this discussion.
Unless and until you hear concrete proposals for which federal agencies, programs, projects, etc. that O is going to eliminate, consolidate, reduce, slash, etc., hold onto your wallet because YOU TOO are in the crosshairs, even if O does not himself believe it as he speaks now.
vic (15)-
Same old shit, different day. LEH’s announcement covered no new ground. Good luck to them in selling off those divisions, too.
I think the buyer for the whole shooting match is JPM…at about $2/share.
I bet the sale even takes the same form: a weekend shotgun marriage, arranged by Klink and Bergabe.
I am also hoping that this will be my entertainment for this weekend and that it will not happen during the Chelsea/Man City match.
skeptic,
not necessarily. I have broken a lease twice. Both times i explained the situation to the land lord before hand and made a good faith effort to find a replacement tenet. Neither land lord dinged my credit for it.
WM $2.53
electric - can you believe the rise? It’s up $10 already from when we purchased (i guess $20 for you)
Clot, keep that doom and gloom coming …
Unfit for High Office
One of the interesting aspects of this campaign is watching the scales fall from the eyes of many of John McC’s closest admirers among the veteran DC press corps. I’m not talking about the freaks on Faux News or any of the sycophants at the AP. I’m talking about, let’s say, the better sort of reporters and commentators in the 45 to 65 age bracket. To the extent that the press was McC’s base (and in many though now sillier respects it still is) this was the base of the base. And talking to a number of them I can understand why that was, at least in the sense of the person he was then presenting himself as.
But over the last … maybe six weeks, in various conversations with these folks, the change is palpable. Whether it will make any difference in the tone of coverage in the dominant media I do not know. But it is sinking in.
All politicians stretch the truth, massage it into the best fit with their message. But, let’s face it, John McC is running a campaign almost entirely based on straight up lies. Not just exaggerations or half truths but the sort of straight up, up-is-down mind-blowers we’ve become so accustomed to from the current occupants of the White House. And today McC comes out with this rancid, race-baiting ad based on another lie. Willie Horton looks mild by comparison. (And remember, President George H.W. B never ran the Willie Horton ad himself. It was an outside group. He wasn’t willing to degrade himself that far.) As TPM Reader JM said below, at least Horton actually was released on a furlough. This is ugly stuff. And this is an ugly person. There’s clearly no level of sleaze this guy won’t stoop to to win this election.
And let’s be frank. He might win it. This is clearly a testing time for O supporters. But I want to return to a point I made a few years ago during the Social Security battle with President B. Winning and losing is never fully in one’s control — not in politics or in life. What is always within our control is how we fight and bear up under pressure. It’s easy to get twisted up in your head about strategy and message and optics. But what is already apparent is that John McC is running the sleaziest, most dishonest and race-baiting campaign of our lifetimes. So let’s stopped being shocked and awed by every new example of it. It is undignified. What can we do? We’ve got a dangerously reckless contender for the presidency and a vice presidential candidate who distinguished her self by abuse of office even on the comparatively small political stage of AK. They’ve both embraced a level of dishonesty that disqualifies them for high office. Democrats owe it to the country to make clear who these people are. No apologies or excuses. If Democrats can say at the end of this campaign that they made clear exactly how and why these two are unfit for high office they can be satisfied they served their country.
–Josh Marshall
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/215224.php
A Berkshire Hathaway subsidiary’s move to stop insuring bank deposits above federal limits apparently reflects Warren Buffett’s worries about future bank failures.
Several reports say that Kansas Bankers Surety in Topeka is getting out of the business of backing deposits above the $100,000 limit guaranteed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. for many bank accounts.
And the Wall Street Journal says this morning that the decision came from Buffett himself. “Two people briefed on the matter said the order was made Monday by Mr. Buffett.”
While a KBS executive confirmed to the Journal that the company isn’t writing any new policies and will work with banks to eliminate existing policies, he wouldn’t “confirm or deny Mr. Buffett’s involvement, calling it ’strictly rumor.’”
In its story on the KBS move, the Kansas City Star quotes the president of the Missouri Bankers Association as saying the decision appears to have been made “somewhere up the chain.”
And the Oklahoman suggests that when it comes to the glass half-full vs half-empty debate over the credit crisis, Buffett may believe the “glass is cracked.”
That newspaper quotes Roger Beverage, president and CEO of the Oklahoma Bankers Association, as saying, “Apparently Mr. Buffett thinks there is a possibility of more bank failures not covered by FDIC. That’s a huge blow for any community bank that had those coverages.” He calls the KBS decision “stunning.”
[snip]
http://www.cnbc.com/id/26638630
laughing (46)-
Grim should just post an SKF ticker on the homepage here. :)
#123 clot: Are you saying that you disagree with Kudlow in his assessment that the Fed’s back stopping of Fred/Fan is not the cure all, and that all will be well?
Chi (55)-
“I hope Lehman doesn’t succumb this time either because we’re running out of investment banks,” said Sean Egan, president of Egan-Jones Ratings Co. “And it takes 100 years to create a good one.”
Too bad it only takes about five to blow one to smithereens.
Clot - If Grim posts and SKF ticker here, I wouldn’t have to go anywhere else.
While all eyes are/were on Lehman, WM tanking. Hmmmm.
mike (95)-
I await your results. Sounds like you’re dealing with some real goobers.
3b (130)-
Violently disagree. I consider Paulson’s move an act of treason. I also think it will be viewed by history as the point at which things started going from gray to black.
I believe the rumblings I’m hearing that either O or M will pull the plug on the bailout. It is also mildly interesting that the CDS dealers have all declared the bailout a credit event and are demanding delivery of bonds. Perhaps their tiny voices will be squelched, but it still represents (as someone here astutely noted on Monday) a classic signal of a deflationary credit crisis: multiple parties laying claim to a dwindling store of assets.
skeptic
What about the issue of affordability. Are housing prices in line with income?
Skep-tic:
Your full of it. Your example only covers the the small business owner and leaves out the important fact the secretary will end up with more money to buy the product or service that this business sells as the government wants to lower her healthcare costs, or make college more affordable so she can move up in the world.
The wealthy will regret their greedy decisions when their former employees storm the gates of their mansions looking for food as their wages no longer cover it. Why won’t the wages cover it? Well because everyone’s taxes are going up to pay for the bailouts of the wealthy. Unfortunately, the secretaries can not afford to eat now that their portion of wages that go to pay taxes has increased so much. Of course, the business owner is not happy as well since he will have to eat whitefish caviar instead of the beluga.
“Now, under Mr. O, this guy is going to pay an additional $40,000 in fed income tax. Let’s say I am a secretary– that extra $40,000 could be the difference between me having a job or not. Mr. O is also going to uncap the payroll tax above $250,000. That is really going to cost the boss— almost $100,000 more in taxes. That is potentially two more jobs lost.”
Gator,
The ad in question can be found here.
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/09/new_mccain_ad_badly_distorts_o_1.php
Whilst one may agree or disagree with including kindergarteners (and other lower grades) in a program geared towards public health and/or pregnancy avoidance, for the author of that piece you cited to describe the ad as “rancid, race-baiting” and that “Willie Horton looks mild by comparison” is just such a hyperbolic overstatement that detracts from the the ligitimate points the author may have to make.
#127
“John McC is running the sleaziest, most dishonest and race-baiting campaign of our lifetimes.”
that is a pretty bold claim. Do you have any examples of this race baiting?
The press were never going to be Mr. M’s allies in this campaign and his campaign started doing better when he realized this and started to better control his message a couple of months ago.
Gator,
The ad in question can be found here.
remove the *s to activate the link
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/09/new_mc*ca*in_ad_badly_distorts_o_1.php
Whilst one may agree or disagree with including kindergarteners (and other lower grades) in a program geared towards public health and/or pregnancy avoidance, for the author of that piece you cited to describe the ad as “rancid, race-baiting” and that “Willie Horton looks mild by comparison” is just such a hyperbolic overstatement that detracts from the the ligitimate points the author may have to make.
Skep-tic-
The lies are unbelievable. Come on. He claims O is teaching sex ed to six year olds!
Need I say more?
You are blind and deaf man!
vodka (124)-
Legally, a landlord can’t ding you (at least, not right away) for breaking a lease.
In NJ, a landlord must make every effort to mitigate his loss due to a broken lease before he goes after the departing tenant to make him whole. Long story short, it’s faster, cheaper and easier to just get another tenant.
Disclaimer: I am not an attorney. Anyone seeking legal advice should just buy a gun and enforce his own vision of frontier law.
I’m going to be in NJ on the 16th-18th. If your going to plan a GTG and it falls on one of those days I would attend.
There still would be a small outside chance that I would go if it wasn’t on those dates.
He is a desperate old coot and his strategy to make character-related lies about his opponents will back-fire soon enough. No mention of the economy as it implodes. No mention of his party predecessor or his terrible mistakes. Nothing but lies and deceit and your gulping it down like it was chocolate milk.
“Anyone seeking legal advice should just buy a gun and enforce his own vision of frontier law.”
Apparently, for Clot, the race for president comes down to Bob Bahr and Mc-ca-in, lol
Stu, as a lifelong Dem, I agree with Skeptic taxes are not the only answer. I do think a tax increase will be necessary but I also think we need to really cut costs. Our leader needs to but the sh*t is hitting the fan hat on and really try to shore up the finances in this country. Class warfare is not the answer, tax will need to go up it is a nasty fact of life and a poorly run gov’t for the last 8 years. The tax increase will mostly affect the higher earners but if we cut the blow will not be as big. In general most Americans are taxed way more than they deserve to be but until we control costs we cannot fix this, and in order to control costs we need to eliminate debt which means in the short term higher taxes. My fear is O will not cut spending, etc and as such those of us in the 175-200k income range which in NYC is the I’m just making it salary range will get hammered and we cannot afford it.
Sex Ed and Health Ed often fall under the same category but the teachings are very different. Teaching a 6 year old to wash up in the morning and brush his/her teeth (health ed) is not the same curriculum taught in a high school health class aka sex ed.
#137 Stu, I respect that you may disagree, but think my example is quite relevant.
First, small businesses provide a very large percentage of the existing jobs in this country and are of course the main source of future growth and future job creation. When you hurt the guy who is the small business owner, you also punish workers now and in the future.
I would grant you that those who are able to retain their jobs would be better off were they able to receive more gov’t entitlements as well. This is the situation in much of Europe. The people who have jobs in France and Germany have less fear of being fired and receive generous gov’t benefits on top of it. I can understand why people might be envious of their situation, but you have to look at the other side of the coin, which is an overall sluggish economy that struggles to grow at 2% for any sustainable time, with little in the way of new job creation and a significant percentage of the population that is basically permanently unemployed. Remember the Paris riots?
Stu,
Did you see this comment on TPM?
Right wingnuts are hyperventilating, claiming that Oh-no called P a pig (since she owns the word lipstick now). Obama should stand by his statement and make it clear that P is the lipstick… and Mc-Ca-in is the pig.”
I am still voting for Mc-Ca-in (and a democratic member of congress) but it was a pretty funny comment.
Stu,
Did you see this comment on TPM?
Right wingnuts are hyperventilating, claiming that Oh-no called P a pig (since she owns the word lipstick now). Oh-no should stand by his statement and make it clear that P is the lipstick… and Mc-Ca-in is the pig.”
I am still voting for Mc-Ca-in (and a democratic member of congress) but it was a pretty funny comment.
Shore (144)-
Barr is not libertarian enough for me.
Give me a candidate who believes in strong fences, pit bulls and unlimited personal armaments.
Plus an abolition of all written law.
I guess that makes me an anarchist.
148 Shore
The lipstick on a pig expression has been used around here so much, I immediately thought they were talking about real estate.
Stu, I definitely agree that the ad you’re referencing is not truthful. Much of the campaigns on both sides regrettably have chosen to focus on items of zero substance and stretch the truth very far. I think if you would look at Mr. O’s campaign just as criticially, you would find similar examples.
did this get lost before?
can anyone look up the address for this:
ML# 2570001
much appreciated as always :)
vodka (152)-
103 Taylortown Rd, Montville. 16 DOM; $2,000 rental.
anyone know what the deal is with gold? 765?
Skep: I too agree that spending is a larger part of the issue. If I recall, GWB promised to cut spending in 2000. He ended up doubling the debt in just 8 short years.
The real crime is that people aren’t up in arms over the terrible decisions our government has been making recently. Even the Republican’s admit GWB was terrible, hence his absence at the convention.
I suppose, until the shite hits the fan, we’ll just keep enjoying the crumbs.
Clot,
And your number is 999?
Shore 139 - This is from my original post on this topic last night:
New McC Ad Falsely Suggests O Wants Kids To Learn “About Sx Before Learning To Read”
By Greg Sargent - September 9, 2008, 6:22PM
The McC campaign is up with a new ad attacking O on education that makes some rather strong insinuations about sx:
There’s a lot to chew on here. But we want to focus on one particularly pernicious aspect of it. The ad shows a dreamy-looking O as it says:
O’s one accomplishment? Legislation to teach “comprehensive sx education” to kindergartners. Learning about sx before learning to read?
In a final moment of subtlety, the ad says O is “wrong for your family.”
According to the McC campaign’s own email, the sx ed claim is based on O’s support for a bill, in the Illinois state legislature, that said:
“Each class or course in comprehensive sx education offered in any of grades K through 12 shall include instruction on the prevention of sxually transmitted infections, including the prevention, transmission and spread of HIV.”
As you can see, the McC ad says that O was the one who pushed the “comprehensive sx education” measure. The O campaign has pointed out that the bill would simply add instruction on disease prevention to already existing Illinois sx-ed standards. But the McC campaign cheerfully turned this into O’s support for “learning about sx before learning to read.”
And “civil” and “honorable” McC approved that message.
Does anyone think that we might be able to cut one or two (or more) of the following?
http://www.whitehouse.gov/government/independent-agencies.html
Asset & commodity deflation, across the board.
Everybody out there (esp the Chinese) are storing up dollars, which results in other currencies taking hits vs. the USD, and the USD is rising vs the “anti-dollars” of gold and oil.
I think it will go this way until all our trading counterparties decide to dump the USD and roll into gold…which could come soon.
Skep: “I think if you would look at Mr. O’s campaign just as criticially, you would find similar examples.”
Go look. They both twist the truth, but only M and SP are going after character. It is there only hope as everyone knows that the economy under GWB (and yes, there was a dem congress, I know, I know) has collapsed.
I just question how stupid M thinks his audience is.
Yes, GWB and the GOP congress were massive failures on spending. The GOP rightfully lost control of congress largely for this reason, I think. Mr. M is unfortunately tarred with this same brush, although he does not in my opinion deserve it to the degree of many repubs, just as Mr. O is not as horrible as the worst members of his party. that said, one of the candidates in this race has a platform of expanding gov’t by a large amount, while the other does not. I tend to think the record of large gov’t is clearly bad, regardless of the party which tried to foist it on the public
Shore (156)-
I defer to Sid and Johnny:
I am an antichrist
I am an anarchist
Dont know what I want but
I know how to get it
I wanna destroy the passer by cos i
I wanna be anarchy !
No dogs body
Anarchy for the u.k its coming sometime and maybe
I give a wrong time stop a trafic line
Your future dream is a shopping scheme cos i
I wanna be anarchy !
In the city
How many ways to get what you want
I use the best I use the rest
I use the enemy I use anarchy cos i
I wanna be anarchy !
The only way to be !
Is this the m.p.l.a
Or is this the u.d.a
Or is this the i.r.a
I thought it was the u.k or just
Another country
Another council tenancy
I wanna be an anarchist
Oh what a name
Get pissed destroy !
Clott 149:
All laws should be require to be reviewed in full every 3 years and each politician must sign a statement attesting to the fact that have fully read and understood the full text of said law upon penalty of criminal prosecution and baning from public office for life.
Each law must be read aloud to the full assembly of both houses during the review period.
problem solved
160 Stu - The audience is very stupid and it just may work.
Ket- MLS#-2570001
103 Taylortown RD Montville
.68 acre $2000 a month rental/1 yr lease
no bsmt
tenant pays all inc lawn maint., snow removal & RE fee
“Each law must be read aloud to the full assembly of both houses during the review period.”
Don’t they have to be present for this to work? It would never fly. Half of our federal officials spend most the year on vacation or on lobbyist sponsored trips.
Stu, you and I know that if I were to go an look on some right wing blogs of similar disposition as the left wing blogs being referenced above that I could probably find some examples of the O campaign doing some pretty dirty things. that is politics. it would be nice if people were more civilized, but this is a high stakes game. we can recognize this without making it the basis for who we support though
in re GTG:
i know there aren’t many from the area but i’ll be attending Robert Shiller “the chiller” book tour at the Philly free library tomorrow evening if anyone else is interested….
Skep - McC should be held to a high standard on this front, as he is running as the man of “character” and “honor”. There is absolutely nothing honorable about that ad. Sadly, the Straight Talk Express has derailed.
“I definitely agree that the ad you’re referencing is not truthful. Much of the campaigns on both sides regrettably have chosen to focus on items of zero substance and stretch the truth very far. I think if you would look at Mr. O’s campaign just as criticially, you would find similar examples.”
“160 Stu - The audience is very stupid and it just may work.”
Gator, this is why the dems fail in the red states. Reasoning with facts to a potential voter in Mississippi is like arguing with a drunk. Now simply say “Drill, baby drill” and they begin drooling like one of Pavlov’s dogs.
Gator– Mr. O presented himself as someone who practised a “different kind of politics.” It is the same analogy.
Gator,
Maybe the dreamy look was him daydreaming about sitting behind the Resolute desk in the Oval Office. After all, he did stand behind a podium with a mock-up of the seal of the president on it.
There are pleanty of policy issues to attack Mc-Ca-in on. That said, this hyperventilation on the side of O’s supporters looking for or seeing racism at the heart of many comments is too much.
See below, for example. One may think that community organizing is downright silly or a waste (I for one do not. It is good for folks to go and help others) without being racist.
The tightly-run O campaign is starting to come off message and is showing strain. If they are not careful (and I for one hope they are not careful) the O campaign is going ot shoot itself in the foot and appear to be just like any other campaign, and appear less likely to change anything about Washington or politics in general.
From http://www.crainsnewyork.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080909/FREE/809099966
Gov. David Paterson this morning said that Republicans’ ridiculing of Sen. Barack Obama’s community organizing carries racial overtones.
The governor said because Mr. Obama’s organizing was done on the South Side of Chicago, a traditionally black area, the criticism from supporters of Sen. John McCain makes him especially suspicious of its motives.
“I think there are overtures of potential racial coding in the campaign,” he said before a large audience of businesspeople at a Crain’s Breakfast Forum.
The McCain campaign quickly jumped on the remark. “It is disappointing that Governor Paterson would launch accusations of racism, as he did this morning,” said McCain spokesman Peter Feldman. “This is a tactic that the Obama campaign has used before, and which McCain campaign manager Rick Davis correctly called ‘divisive, shameful, and wrong.’”
Mr. Paterson made his comment in response to a reporter’s question, and appeared to be speaking for himself, but Mr. Feldman said, “He’s an Obama supporter. When you answer a question in that context, you are speaking for the campaign.”
Mr. Obama, for his part, has said he sees no racism in the mockery, though he expressed befuddlement that Republicans would make fun of community organizers.
“I definitely believe that there’s racial overtones,” said City Councilman Charles Barron, D-Brooklyn, an Obama supporter and outspoken black activist. “In fact, I won’t even say overtones. It’s downright racist.”
But Mr. Feldman said that was not the premise of blistering criticism at the Republican national convention by Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, John McCain’s running mate. “Governor Palin’s remarks about Barack Obama’s work as a community organizer was in response to the Obama campaign’s belittling of her executive experience,” he said in a statement.
Mr. Paterson, the first African-American governor of New York and one of only two in the nation, suggested in July that his race was a factor in how people characterized him. In particular, he objected to being called the “accidental governor” following his sudden succession of Eliot Spitzer, who resigned in March. White officials who rose to prominent posts unexpectedly were not called “accidental,” he said during a speech to the NAACP in Chicago.
However, the term had been used more than a few times to describe white presidents including Theodore Roosevelt, Harry Truman, Lyndon Johnson and Gerald Ford, and more recently Connecticut Gov. Jodi Rell
Is this your version of pillow talk?
Stu Says:
September 10th, 2008 at 12:09 pm
“160 Stu - The audience is very stupid and it just may work.”
Gator, this is why the dems fail in the red states. Reasoning with facts to a potential voter in Mississippi is like arguing with a drunk. Now simply say “Drill, baby drill” and they begin drooling like one of Pavlov’s dogs.
Thank you clott!
Stu, Skeptic,
Can we just agree that either candidate represents the overall status quo and tte only noticeable difference is which special interest they are beholden to?
Dem/Rep is irrelevant, they are 2 heads of the same beast.
go here
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_candidates_in_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2008
choose anyone but MC or O
Gator,
Maybe the dreamy look was him daydreaming about sitting behind the Resolute desk in the Oval Office. After all, he did stand behind a podium with a mock-up of the seal of the president on it.
There are pleanty of policy issues to attack Mc-Ca-in on. That said, this hyperventilation on the side of O’s supporters looking for or seeing racism at the heart of many comments is too much.
See below, for example. One may think that community organizing is downright silly or a waste (I for one do not. It is good for folks to go and help others) without being racist.
The tightly-run O campaign is starting to come off message and is showing strain. If they are not careful (and I for one hope they are not careful) the O campaign is going ot shoot itself in the foot and appear to be just like any other campaign, and appear less likely to change anything about Washington or politics in general.
From http://www.crainsnewyork.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080909/FREE/809099966
Gov. David Paterson this morning said that Republicans’ ridiculing of Sen. B O-no’s community organizing carries racial overtones.
The governor said because Mr. O-no’s organizing was done on the South Side of Chicago, a traditionally black area, the criticism from supporters of Sen. John M makes him especially suspicious of its motives.
“I think there are overtures of potential racial coding in the campaign,” he said before a large audience of businesspeople at a Crain’s Breakfast Forum.
The McCain campaign quickly jumped on the remark. “It is disappointing that Governor Paterson would launch accusations of racism, as he did this morning,” said M spokesman Peter Feldman. “This is a tactic that the O-no campaign has used before, and which M campaign manager Rick Davis correctly called ‘divisive, shameful, and wrong.’”
Mr. Paterson made his comment in response to a reporter’s question, and appeared to be speaking for himself, but Mr. Feldman said, “He’s an O-n0 supporter. When you answer a question in that context, you are speaking for the campaign.”
Mr. O-no, for his part, has said he sees no racism in the mockery, though he expressed befuddlement that Republicans would make fun of community organizers.
“I definitely believe that there’s racial overtones,” said City Councilman Charles Barron, D-Brooklyn, an O- supporter and outspoken black activist. “In fact, I won’t even say overtones. It’s downright racist.”
But Mr. Feldman said that was not the premise of blistering criticism at the Republican national convention by Alaska Gov. Sarah P, John M’s running mate. “Governor Palin’s remarks about Barack O-no’s work as a community organizer was in response to the O-no campaign’s belittling of her executive experience,” he said in a statement.
Mr. Paterson, the first African-American governor of New York and one of only two in the nation, suggested in July that his race was a factor in how people characterized him. In particular, he objected to being called the “accidental governor” following his sudden succession of Eliot Spitzer, who resigned in March. White officials who rose to prominent posts unexpectedly were not called “accidental,” he said during a speech to the NAACP in Chicago.
However, the term had been used more than a few times to describe white presidents including Theodore Roosevelt, Harry Truman, Lyndon Johnson and Gerald Ford, and more recently Connecticut Gov. Jodi Rell
Shore Guy Says: Your comment is awaiting moderation.
September 10th, 2008 at 12:13 pm
Gator,
Maybe the dreamy look was him daydreaming about sitting behind the Resolute desk in the Oval Office. After all, he did stand behind a podium with a mock-up of the seal of the president on it.
There are pleanty of policy issues to attack Mc-Ca-in on. That said, this hyperventilation on the side of O’s supporters looking for or seeing racism at the heart of many comments is too much.
See below, for example. One may think that community organizing is downright silly or a waste (I for one do not. It is good for folks to go and help others) without being racist.
The tightly-run O campaign is starting to come off message and is showing strain. If they are not careful (and I for one hope they are not careful) the O campaign is going ot shoot itself in the foot and appear to be just like any other campaign, and appear less likely to change anything about Washington or politics in general.
From http://www.crainsnewyork.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080909/FREE/809099966
Gov. David Paterson this morning said that Republicans’ ridiculing of Sen. B O-no’s community organizing carries racial overtones.
The governor said because Mr. O-no’s organizing was done on the South Side of Chicago, a traditionally black area, the criticism from supporters of Sen. John M makes him especially suspicious of its motives.
“I think there are overtures of potential racial coding in the campaign,” he said before a large audience of businesspeople at a Crain’s Breakfast Forum.
The McCain campaign quickly jumped on the remark. “It is disappointing that Governor Paterson would launch accusations of racism, as he did this morning,” said M spokesman Peter Feldman. “This is a tactic that the O-no campaign has used before, and which M campaign manager Rick Davis correctly called ‘divisive, shameful, and wrong.’”
Mr. Paterson made his comment in response to a reporter’s question, and appeared to be speaking for himself, but Mr. Feldman said, “He’s an O-n0 supporter. When you answer a question in that context, you are speaking for the campaign.”
Mr. O-no, for his part, has said he sees no racism in the mockery, though he expressed befuddlement that Republicans would make fun of community organizers.
“I definitely believe that there’s racial overtones,” said City Councilman Charles Barron, D-Brooklyn, an O- supporter and outspoken black activist. “In fact, I won’t even say overtones. It’s downright racist.”
But Mr. Feldman said that was not the premise of blistering criticism at the Republican national convention by Alaska Gov. Sarah P, John M’s running mate. “Governor Palin’s remarks about B O-no’s work as a community organizer was in response to the O-no campaign’s belittling of her executive experience,” he said in a statement.
Mr. Paterson, the first African-American governor of New York and one of only two in the nation, suggested in July that his race was a factor in how people characterized him. In particular, he objected to being called the “accidental governor” following his sudden succession of Eliot Spitzer, who resigned in March. White officials who rose to prominent posts unexpectedly were not called “accidental,” he said during a speech to the NAACP in Chicago.
However, the term had been used more than a few times to describe white presidents including Theodore Roosevelt, Harry Truman, Lyndon Johnson and Gerald Ford, and more recently Connecticut Gov. Jodi Rell
clot, cooper
thank you for the info!
Gator,
Maybe the dreamy look was him daydreaming about sitting behind the Resolute desk in the Oval Office. After all, he did stand behind a podium with a mock-up of the seal of the president on it.
There are pleanty of policy issues to attack Mc-Ca-in on. That said, this hyperventilation on the side of O’s supporters looking for or seeing racism at the heart of many comments is too much.
See below, for example. One may think that community organizing is downright silly or a waste (I for one do not. It is good for folks to go and help others) without being racist.
The tightly-run O campaign is starting to come off message and is showing strain. If they are not careful (and I for one hope they are not careful) the O campaign is going ot shoot itself in the foot and appear to be just like any other campaign, and appear less likely to change anything about Washington or politics in general.
From http://www.crainsnewyork.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080909/FREE/809099966
Gov. David Paterson this morning said that Republicans’ ridiculing of Sen. B O-no’s community organizing carries racial overtones.
The governor said because Mr. O-no’s organizing was done on the South Side of Chicago, a traditionally black area, the criticism from supporters of Sen. M makes him especially suspicious of its motives.
“I think there are overtures of potential racial coding in the campaign,” he said before a large audience of businesspeople at a Crain’s Breakfast Forum.
The M campaign quickly jumped on the remark. “It is disappointing that Governor Paterson would launch accusations of racism, as he did this morning,” said M spokesman Peter Feldman. “This is a tactic that the O-no campaign has used before, and which M campaign manager Rick Davis correctly called ‘divisive, shameful, and wrong.’”
Mr. Paterson made his comment in response to a reporter’s question, and appeared to be speaking for himself, but Mr. Feldman said, “He’s an O-n0 supporter. When you answer a question in that context, you are speaking for the campaign.”
Mr. O-no, for his part, has said he sees no racism in the mockery, though he expressed befuddlement that Republicans would make fun of community organizers.
“I definitely believe that there’s racial overtones,” said City Councilman Charles Barron, D-Brooklyn, an O- supporter and outspoken black activist. “In fact, I won’t even say overtones. It’s downright racist.”
But Mr. Feldman said that was not the premise of blistering criticism at the Republican national convention by Alaska Gov. Sarah P, John M’s running mate. “Governor Palin’s remarks about Barack O-no’s work as a community organizer was in response to the O-no campaign’s belittling of her executive experience,” he said in a statement.
Mr. Paterson, the first African-American governor of New York and one of only two in the nation, suggested in July that his race was a factor in how people characterized him. In particular, he objected to being called the “accidental governor” following his sudden succession of Eliot Spitzer, who resigned in March. White officials who rose to prominent posts unexpectedly were not called “accidental,” he said during a speech to the NAACP in Chicago.
However, the term had been used more than a few times to describe white presidents including Theodore Roosevelt, Harry Truman, Lyndon Johnson and Gerald Ford, and more recently Connecticut Gov. Jodi Rell
All O needs to do is hammer the point that McCane was in agreement with 90% of GWB’s decisions! The rednecks will make the connection to the economy themselves.
Unfortunately, the Dems are just too stupid to realize this. There is definitely an inverse relationship when it comes to intellectuality and common sense. Us blue staters know that drilling (alone) is not the solution to our energy problems, nor is corn. But we do not know how to effectively communicate this to the the soccer moms.
Ever watch those terrible American car commercials and wonder how this sell’s a car?
Well the red-staters eat this cr*p up.
Asset & commodity deflation, across the board.
Everybody out there (esp the Chinese) are storing up dollars, which results in other currencies taking hits vs. the USD, and the USD is rising vs the “anti-dollars” of gold and oil.
I think it will go this way until all our trading counterparties decide to dump the USD and roll into gold…which could come soon.
interesting assessment … you come up with that on your own? if you did, it’s time you put out a weekly email blast about this stuff
there was a guy who would periodically run for governor in my home state who had the best party name: the Cool Moose Party. Maybe now that moose are so fashionable he will do better
43 Gator
The R party has become the party of war and thus the party of unlimited government.
With war has come FEAR, magnified many times over by the governing party. Fear is pulling Americans into the arms of the state. If only we were better at resisting. Alas, we Americans say that we love liberty but we are fair-weather lovers. Liberty will flourish only with peace.
Spam-athon Shore
We have foreign relations issues that hold the potential to be on a par with 1914-19 and 1936-45.
“Unfortunately, the Dems are just too stupid to realize this. There is definitely an inverse relationship when it comes to intellectuality and common sense. Us blue staters know that drilling (alone) is not the solution to our energy problems, nor is corn.”
Amen.
I agree Shore. O is acting like he is on the ropes when he is very much in the drivers seat due to the economy. No common sense.
And Kettle: You are correct, we waste a lot of energy trying to convince each other to change their minds when in actuality, I doubt more than 5% of us here has ever strayed from voting for whoever our party runs. You are correct, without radical campaign finance reform and the rejection of lobbyist, we are all wasting our time for the most part.
Jeff Otteau is not always correct. I remember him saying in March of this year the market was only going to drop another 2-3% this year, and 1-2% next year.
My guess is we will drop another 10% between now and the end of 2009.
Skep,
They don’t stand a chance. Sarah will shoot and field dress them before lunch.
Stu,
I guess I am in that 5%. Reagan, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Clinton (I had quite a run there for awhile), Gore, Kerry.
Stu,
I figured that because of the lengthy Democratic primary season, O might have becomed tempered enough to withstand the general election fight. I knew Hillary was from the start, and believe the Dems may rue the day they passed-over her.
O needs to take a page out of the Reagan campaigns, and that is have one message each and every day. If one stays on that message, the press has nothing to report but that message. He also needs to be Little Miss Sunshine, leading the way to the future. Getting down off his high horse and fighting in the gutter just detracts from the image he has cultivated during his run for president.
Hillary seemed to be able to get him riled and I suspect the M campaign has gone to school on those debate tapes.
Back on the topic of housing, lets make Fannie and Freddie even bigger:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/26638982
Hedge fund manager William Ackman, who proposed an alternative to the U.S. government’s rescue plan for mortgage companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, said the companies should be merged and moved to New York from Washington.
[snip]
laughing (177)-
I do not have original thoughts. Everything I know is a mash-up of what I read here and what I read at other places on the intertubes, filtered through the noise of the pack of dogs that is constantly barking in my head.
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Sometimes Clot it is about how you organize those voices in your head that makes it valuable.
Your right in that there isn’t anything new under the sun, but in reality it is taking those old things and arranging them in just such a fashion to make something new.
By sifting through the slog of commentary and presenting the idea in its clearest form you have added quite a bit of value.
#182 gman:My guess is we will drop another 10% between now and the end of 2009.
I think the drop will be far more significant.
This was all built on a house of cards, and now that the belief os should I say reality has moved from the fringe (such as this blog), to the mainstream, it will collapse like a house of cards.
188 - Clot
“filtered through the noise of the pack of dogs that is constantly barking in my head.”
ROFL!!
Clot, What do the dogs say about Wachovia - It is getting whacked today also - down 6%
I voted for Gore. Must admit I wouldn’t vote for him now. Dem party was much more centrist in the 90s
Stu (181)-
“O is acting like he is on the ropes when he is very much in the drivers seat due to the economy. No common sense.”
Avowed soci@lists generally don’t have common sense. The whole concept of soci@lism is pure idiocy, precisely because it refuses to recognize human nature and natural human desires regarding hard work and reward. O’s dilemma is that he can preach the wealth redistribution line, but he can’t market it under the powerful, one-word brand it needs to actually sell. He always has to couch his economic message in the vaguest of codes. In the end, it sounds like everything else coming out of his mouth: a glib, well-delivered chain of words, with no real value or meaning.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/10/sports/football/10sandomir.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
Vic (191)-
The dogs say I’m going to win my office’s bank dead pool with WM.
Gator (194)-
Hey, they can name the place after PIMCO (now a part of the Allianz empire).
Even better: Bill Gross Field???
I heard some interesting analysis last night. Gist of it was that prior to Ms. P entering the race, Mr. O was the star and was more easily able to seem reasonable because the press basically reported everything he said/ did. The “off message” things he might have said previously were lost in the saturation coverage. Now Ms. P is the star and she is getting saturated, but obviously (at least to me) with a diff’t slant than Mr. O received. But now that most of the attention is on P, O must shout to be heard, and when he shouts, he doesn’t seem as presidential
Clotpoll Says:
September 10th, 2008 at 12:01 pm
Asset & commodity deflation, across the board. Everybody out there (esp the Chinese) are storing up dollars, which results in other currencies taking hits vs. the USD, and the USD is rising vs the “anti-dollars” of gold and oil. I think it will go this way until all our trading counterparties decide to dump the USD and roll into gold…which could come soon.
clot: I make no representations about long or short positions. You cannot rely on my opinion for any purpose.
I strongly disagree with your facts and the conclusions you draw from them. Additionally, make sure that you are properly diversified.
“Field of Nightmares”
Much more appropriate to the Jets.
195 Clot -
“The dogs say I’m going to win my office’s bank dead pool with WM.”
Cant believe that everyone did not choose that. What were the other entries?
For the last three days in roll in daily gallup poll, M has been leading O by 5 pts.
http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx
I do appreciate everybody’s doom and gloom about New Jersey and the US, and probably agree with much of it..so how can we reconcile that NJ home prices are not totally down the drain and the US dollar isn’t being used as toilet paper (yet?) Perhaps because NJ $ucks just slightly less than Long Island, Brooklyn and Staten Island (and those folks keep moving out here)and the US $ucks just less than virtually any other country in the world?
Bi,
whats your call on oil?
Just when I start feeling despondent about O’s prospects, Bi perks me back up again. If he says M’s in the lead, it just can’t be true.
87 condo buyer.
Timescale. Somethings move fast, i.e alpine avalanche. other take while then lay waste to the area i.e a hurricane moves at 5 mph for 5 days before it hits land everyone knows its coming but has to wait a week.
economies do not generally make large shifts overnight and take time to develop. same with realestate. a re bubble can take 5+ years peak to trough, 10 years for a full cycle.
#208 1987:how can we reconcile that NJ home prices are not totally down the drain and the US dollar isn’t being used as toilet paper (yet?) Perhaps because NJ $ucks just slightly less than Long Island, Brooklyn and Staten Island (and those folks keep moving out here).
It is just taking longer here, but the end result will be the same.
As far as people still moving to NJ, well in my Bergen Co train town, inventory is just rotting;nothing has sold in months,and listing prices are finally being cut, and inventory is rising.
Turmoil and layoffs on Wall St, coupled with the the weak NJ economy, and there is only one way for prices to continue to go and that is down.
Let’s keep in mind much of what has been discussed here in the last couple of years was ridiculed ad doom and gloom, and it will never happen, well happend it has.
I see no reason on the horizon that would indicate that house prices will not continue to decline.
#208 1987: One final point, 1987 condo buyer? So you have not forgotten abou that time have you?
Well it is worse, much worse this time around.
209#, kettle, i gave up calling oil, gold, homebuilders, financials and etc. seems to me hedge funds are folding and it will not get back to normal until this folding process is over.
#169 skep-tic
I think with M you don’t have to look at the right wing blogs for the lies, just look to the stage where M or P are talking.
The big issue I see here is that M speeches have no substance. His standard speech is “Look what O would do to you, I’m a maverick that makes me different from the party that nominated me. Change is coming to Washington”
I feel like that little woman in the burger adds “Where’s the beef”. There is nothing in the speeches that address the issues facing the country or how he would turn things around.
chifi:
if you disagree with clott, then what is you “unofficial” take on where all of this is headed?
here is what is meant by the term “elites”:
top law school professors donations in 2008 presidential election:
Harvard: 100% ($23,632) to Democrats, 0% to Republicans
Chicago: 100% ($14,158) to Democrats, 0% to Republicans
Michigan: 100% ($11,653) to Democrats, 0% to Republicans
Stanford: 100% ($8,900) to Democrats, 0% to Republicans
Texas: 100% ($6,107) to Democrats, 0% to Republicans
UC-Berkeley: 100% ($4,850) to Democrats, 0% to Republicans
Pennsylvania: 100% ($2,711) to Democrats, 0% to Republicans
Duke: 93.8% ($15,188) to Democrats, 6.2% ($1,000) to Republicans
Columbia: 92.7% ($6,390) to Democrats, 7.3% ($500) to Republicans
Georgetown: 91.9% ($25,990) to Democrats, 8.1% ($2,300) to Republicans
NYU: 91.7% ($5,500) to Democrats, 8.3% ($500) to Republicans
Cornell: 91.5% ($3,250) to Democrats, 8.5% ($300) to Republicans
Yale: 91.2% ($3,630) to Democrats, 8.8% ($350) to Republicans
Virginia: 77.8% ($15,097) to Democrats, 22.2% ($4,300) to Republicans
UCLA: 73.2% ($2,050) to Democrats, 26.8% ($750) to Republicans
Vanderbilt: 56.9% ($1,318) to Democrats, 43.1% ($1,000) to Republicans
Northwestern: 35.3% ($5,050) to Democrats, 64.7% ($9,275) to Republicans
http://taxprof.typepad.com/taxprof_blog/2008/09/law-prof-presid.html
in New jersey, O leads M by 6 pts. M may have a chance to take NJ if O makes more gaffings
Fairleigh Dickinson 09/04 - 09/07 872 LV 47 41 Obama +6
PGC,
Clara Peller was the woman in question.
Mr. O is also 3d on the list of contributions from Fannie/Freddie (after Dodd and Kerry). Do you think this might influence his view of the bailout?
http://www.opensecrets.org/news/2008/07/top-senate-recipients-of-fanni.html
Skep,
What amazes me about those numbers is how bloody low they are. Heck, Mrs. Shore and I have given more than most of the entire faculty at most of those schools. Yeesh. Time for them to get involved.
#189 I guess i’m the “anti-ShoreGuy”!!
Anderson,Mondale,Dukakis,Clinton,Dole,Bush,Bush!
Guess when I had children!!!
215 PGC -
Completely agree. Like the war speech he gives - “We are winning in Iraq” “We will not leave until we win”.
Please define winning for us please.
If winning means making Iran stronger, Al Qaeda stronger in Afghanistan/Pakistan, running a budget deficit when Iraq is running a surplus - then, my friends, we have already won.
#212 Sure..Re has been bad here since the 1980’s, I have excerpts of a chart from NJ Monthly in 2000 which shows 10 year returns on homes from 1989-1999, a sample: These are NOT Annual returns but total AFTER 10 years!
Montclair: 2.28%
North Caldwell: 3.94%
Holmdel: 0.64%
Princeton: 10.25%
East Brunswick: -3.09%
[83] Mikeinwait
I suggest getting ammo’ed up before Nov. If O is elected, there will be a run on ammo, and the dems will impose heavy taxes and restrictions on it thereafter.
#216 kettle: I asked cf that the other day. It is not that I necessarily disagree with him, it is just that I do not know what his thoughts are on all of this.
Skep:
Who the heck cares what an elitist is. I’m elite on Continental Airlines, please don’t hold it against me. Do you think the family that M cheated his way into doesn’t think they are elitist? Perhaps they are using him for financial favor. “Look Cindy, you seduce that cripple Johnny and we’ll be able to get more lucrative beer distribution licenses.” “It’s not like ever have to work a day in your life anyhow.”
The same arguments used against O were used against BC. I can’t think of anyone who didn’t prosper under his leadership. Was there a run on ammo in 1992. Did he run out and create tons of new entitlement programs?
“the press basically reported everything he said”
Unless they start opening up P to the press, things will get ugly for them. NPR were discussing this this morning. When M and P split up will M get the crowds. Will P hold the poll numbers up or will they start to slide. Will P be able to get off the standard stump speech and start talking talking angles or issues.
My own question is, when the plane lands back in Alaska this week and she gets off, will that be the end? Will she actually make it back to the campaign.
The latest Fairleigh Dickinson University poll (09/04 - 09/07) shows that in New jersey, O leads M by 6 pts. M may have a chance to take NJ if O makes more gaffings.
“M may have a chance to take NJ if O makes more gaffings.”
Keep dreaming Bi. Let me know when you wake up.
I see this as the trap shutting.
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/09/obama_spare_me_the_phony_outra.php
When O came out with that line, i thought it was very deliberate. It looks like the M campaign took the bait.
Nice retort
people here seem to agree we will/have to revert to mean.
from 05-06 that would mean an approx 60% drop in total home value assuming zero overshoot on the way down (not realistic, we will overshoot to some degree)
Per the FED 2006 total residential housing was worth 20 trillion.
20 trillion x 60% = 18 trillion.
Reversion to mean is a GUARANTEED 18 trillion dollars that will cease to exist! this does not include any financial or government writedowns/bailouts.
Another fun point.
Given our fractional reserve system every dollar held by a bank generates 9 additional dollars as loans handed out by the banks. So for every 1 dollar that is destroyed it takes 9 dollars of credit with it.
while this glosses over many factors, as a first run guess just out of schadenfraude, reversion to mean will remove approx 160 trillion in credit from the market.
18 trillion X 9 = 162 trillion
I may be way off here, but it gives you a feel for the magnitude of the issue.
162 trillion is 2.5 times the size of the global GDP and 12.5 times the size of the US GDP
here is a discussion of why the “elitist” tag matters and why the obvious support of the media for Mr. O reinforces this tag. from the Atlantic, no less, so it should have some credibility for people not otherwise predisposed to this view:
“People from a handful of schools, most of them hailing from a handful of major metropolitan areas, dominate academia, journalism, and the entertainment industry. Our subtle (or not-so-subtle) distaste for everything from their [non-elites'] entertainment to their decorating choices to the vast swathes of the country in which they choose to live permeate almost everything they read, watch, or hear. Of course we don’t hear it–to us, that’s simply the way the world is.”
http://meganmcardle.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/09/coastal_privilege.php
A substantial shift in the vote preference among independents has given JM a slim lead over BO after the Republican convention. Independents now break for McCain by 15 percentage points (46 percent to 31 percent) in a FOX News poll released Wednesday.
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,420361,00.html
A substantial shift in the vote preference among independents has given John McCain a slim lead over Barack Obama after the Republican convention. Independents now break for Mc by 15 percentage points (46 percent to 31 percent) in a FOX News poll released Wednesday.
[185]
No, they aren’t by themselves the solution, but the Dems don’t want drilling to even be a part.
The dems have embraced corn but also sworn off nuclear and some NG. One must question why the Dems would handcuff the country in this way. The obvious answers are to cause demand destruction and force clean alternatives. Both laudable but the pain will be severe.
I had a thought this morning: Propose, as part of an SPR-type program, to build several “standby” nuclear power plants (perhaps using soon-to-be-closed bases), to be amped up in time of emergency. Although expensive to build, it would extend the life of the SPR such that, in relation to other gov ready efforts, it might actually be cost-effective.
Politically, it is harder for Dems to oppose them because they would not be operational unless desperately needed (e.g., national emergency) so no huge waste problem, their very presence would pressure oil prices,they represent jobs, and dems spend more than that on stupid sh1t anyway.
Realistically, these may get fired up anyway as folks will demand cheaper power and argue that the cost is borne so why not use it? (This, along with cost, is the anti-nukers’ best argument, but both can cut two ways).
Logistically, it may or may not be cost-effective. I will leave that to Kettle, et al.
But it is my contribution to the debate, so I toss it in the ring.
kettle– I have to admit that I didn’t believe the deflation scenario until I read your informative posts.
kettle,
I see what your saying but you have some numbers problems.
20 trillion x 60% = 12 trillion
12 trillion x 9 = 108 trillion
1.66 times global GDP
8.33 times US GDP
Remember when MTV used to play music videos? Oh, and remember when njrereport.com used to be a blog about real estate?
AAHHHHHH CANT DO MATH!!!! VERY EMBARRASSED! :(
people here seem to agree we will/have to revert to mean.
from 05-06 that would mean an approx 60% drop in total home value assuming zero overshoot on the way down (not realistic, we will overshoot to some degree)
Per the FED 2006 total residential housing was worth 20 trillion.
20 trillion x 60% = 12 trillion.
Reversion to mean is a GUARANTEED 12 trillion dollars that will cease to exist! this does not include any financial or government writedowns/bailouts.
Another fun point.
Given our fractional reserve system every dollar held by a bank generates 9 additional dollars as loans handed out by the banks. So for every 1 dollar that is destroyed it takes 9 dollars of credit with it.
while this glosses over many factors, as a first run guess just out of schadenfreude, reversion to mean will remove approx 160 trillion in credit from the market.
12 trillion X 9 = 108 trillion
I may be way off here, but it gives you a feel for the magnitude of the issue.
108 trillion is 1.5 times the size of the global GDP and 8 times the size of the US GDP
speaking of MTV, Britney looked hot again the other day. so we have that going for us. this may be looked back upon in history as the age of the m-ilf
So got my car today. 2006 BMW 525xi CPO with 32K, CT dealer got it back on lease and could not move it in 30 days so dealer auctioned it for cash flow. Dealer had a truck load of Acuras and 3 series off lease with my 5 series they were auctioning but were not buying. Good time to buy lux car. Of course I am bottom fishing scum but hey that does not mean my local BMW dealer can deny me my free oil changes and coffee like the other fools who make full price.
Last time I did this I got the evil eye from the car dealer when I went for free servicing on my auction car, but somehow I love it.
#236 gary: There is not a whole lot left to say I guess. Even though you are still skeptical, prices are indeed finally starting to fall (too slow of course, and I agree, but the declines are picking up.
I guess for most would be buyers, the only question remains as to when they get in. For myself it is Spring/Summer next year.
Gary,
I agree that politics has taken over a bit lately but look at the top of the page where it says: “Real Estate, Economics, and Politics”
Inasmuch as politics drives economic policy, tax policy, and other factors that have positive and negative effects on RE, the discussion is on topic.
john, i hope you have learned by now the must subtle and classy way to display wealth is through rims. the BMW dealer will not respect you until you roll up with some spinners
damit,
my math was still messed up!!!
short and sweet:
this housing bubble will remove 108 trillion in credit from the market and the 12 trillion that credit was based on.
we are looking at a 120 trillion loss to the market just be reversion to mean.
Lost,
you may take out the cat-o-ninetails and commence punishment for my poor math skills! :(
#236, Yeah, I think I may be the last posting on Real estate…, in the meantime we’ll let the 20-30 year old New Jerseyean/New Yorkers handle the politics and diversified portfolios!
I betting on that little window between Thanksgiving and Christmas in 09 to throw out some crazy low offers.
Nothing like telling your family during the Holidays that you unloaded that monkey off your back.
So where are Bill and Hillary these days? Bill would seem like the perfect guy to tie together M and Bush. Hillary is strong in PA and OH. Do you think that they will play an increasing role down the stretch?
John,
Can you discuss in balpark numbers what you got it for?
3b,
Winter/Spring for me. I’ve already started to do a little prep work on the current abode to get it ready. If I find what I like, I’m just going to hit it hard and see what happens. The next move is going to be for 10 plus years.
ballpark, even
Winter/Spring GTG at Gary’s new crib!
skeptic 234,
sarcasm meter currently out for calibration.
thank you…. i think
Nom,
when is the official wine and scotch DePlume GTG?
d2b “Do you think that they will play an increasing role down the stretch?”
Not a chance. If O wins Hil could be locked out for 12-16 years. If O loses, she gets to say “See. You should have gone with me.”
But, neither Bill nor Hil can be seen to have contributed to an O loss. If one reads Bill’s convention speech very carefully, he walked a very fine line where he appeared to be supportive but he really was not. Remember, this is a guy who debated the meaning of the word “is.” The same can be said for Hil’s support since the convention.
They want to be seen as having been on the team and working dor a Dem victory but it is in their own personal interest for M to prevail. M is a one termer and 4 years from now, if O loses, H should have a straight shot to the nomination.
#248 gary:The next move is going to be for 10 plus years.
Same for me, so it has to be worth my while.
And I do not give a flying chit what some dumb @ss realtor named Toni-Ann or Bobbi with an i tells me.
Nor do I care if I insult some gobshite seller and their POS Cape, Ranch, Colonial etc.
If these morons do not finally get that the party really and truly is over, then they can climb to the roof’s of their houses and throw themselves off for all I care, or stick their sweat smelling krap boxes where the sun don’t shine.
clott
Japanese Yen Rises as Credit-Loss Concern Curbs Carry Trades
The yen rose against the euro for a second day and advanced versus the dollar on speculation credit- market losses will widen, prompting investors to pare holdings of higher-yielding assets funded with Japan’s currency.
The yen also traded near a two-year high against the Australian and New Zealand dollars, two favorites of so-called carry trades, amid concern the U.S. government’s takeover of mortgage lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac won’t halt subprime losses. The U.S. dollar declined versus the euro and the pound.
#254
3b channeling Gary?
#240 Strawman
Is that a US made BMW?
#253 shore: Hill would have been the stronger candidate, and against M she would at this point be much further ahead in the polls.
The Democrats may be sorry yet they chose O over Hill, and if O looses, she will definitely be back in 2012.
#256 Doyle: I can only be a humble student of gary;he remains the master.
For the next GTG can we follow Rich’s suggestion for a BC venue. I think he had suggested Ridgewood.
3b I think you are correct. I would have voted for Hil over Mc.
When this process began, my top pics were:
1) Biden
2) Hil
3) Mc-Ca-in
I am left with M so taht is where I go.
We are never going to see sub $100 a barrell ever again.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ad51863a-7ed8-11dd-b1af-000077b07658.html
Will BC allow such riffraff as us in?
$28,400
Shore Guy Says:
September 10th, 2008 at 2:26 pm
John,
Can you discuss in balpark numbers what you got it for?
Who is this BC?
Doyle [256],
LOL! I was thinking the same thing! 3b sounds like me!
[252] kettle,
Working on that. Must coordinate with unpacking and other travel. In the hunt for patio furniture presently.
Tasting Notes:
I uncorked a new bottle of The Balvenie Founders Reserve when I moved in. I must say it isn’t nearly as good as it used to be. I much preferred the Cragganmore that I had just finished to The Balvenie.
Stu,
I want blow, weed, beer and hookers at the new crib GTG. Oh, what the h*ll, throw in a pack of Marlboros, too!
nick 235,
thanks for the correct math.
anyone,
is the calculation i did an invalid rough approximation for any reason i am not aware of?
it is an alarming # and i may have made some incorrect assumptions
John,
It looks like you have influenced gary.
John’s 525xi - $28.4k doesn’t sound that hot. What was KBB? Must be a fully loaded model. Than the deal is pretty good.
#268 gary: throw in a pack of Marlboros, too!
Yeah, Reds!!
Lehman, WaMu Lead Increase in Bank Bond Risk to Six-Month High
Sept. 10 (Bloomberg) — The cost to protect against a default by banks and securities firms rose to the highest in six months as Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. reported the biggest quarterly loss in its 158-year history and concern mounted that banks including Washington Mutual Inc. won’t find buyers.
Sorry here is the link
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aB23BtGpo8uI&refer=home
Another story from the intersection of politics and RE (part 2). I love the line about how a “mistake” should not cost him his job. Also, is there anyone here who pays a 7% federal tax rate at the margin ($5k taxes owed on $75k income??)?
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/11/nyregion/11rangel.html?em
WASHINGTON — Representative Charles B. Rangel said on Wednesday that “cultural and language barriers” prevented him from understanding the finances of his Dominican Republic beachfront house, and vowed to repay several thousand dollars in federal taxes he owes after failing to report $75,000 in rental income from the villa.
Skip to next paragraph
Related
Rangel Owes U.S. Back Taxes, Lawyer Says (September 10, 2008)
Post a Comment on City Room | Read CommentsAt a Capitol Hill press conference during which he seemed to take turns being remorseful and defiant, the congressman said he was not aware of the unreported income and unpaid taxes, in part because he had trouble getting detailed financial statements from the resort’s managers in the Dominican Republic.
“Every time I thought I was getting somewhere, they’d start speaking Spanish,” Mr. Rangel told reporters.
But the 78-year-old congressman, a Democrat from Harlem who has been in Congress since 1971, brushed aside calls that he step down as chairman of the powerful House Ways and Means Committee, which writes the federal tax code, and accused Republicans who have called for him to do so of politicizing his financial issues.
“I really don’t believe making mistakes means you have to give up your career,” Mr. Rangel said.
At the press conference, Mr. Rangel also said that he had asked the House ethics committee to investigate the matter — the third separate inquiry Mr. Rangel has requested since his personal finances began coming under intense public scrutiny in July.
He called his failure to report the income on his taxes “irresponsible,” but also said, “I personally feel I have done nothing morally wrong.”
He said his accountants were still calculating the total amount he owes in unpaid taxes over the past five years, but it was unlikely to exceed $5,000 to the Internal Revenue Service, and another $5,000 to New York State and New York City.
[snip]
Hey John. In another week or two, You can trade it for Lehman, which will be worth less.
“I want blow, weed, beer and hookers”
You just listed the main ingredients from my bachelor party.
U guys here sure know how to party! I thought these GTG’s were G rated.
Stu,
I suspect you have the most guts of any man on this board, given that gator also posts here. I am humbled by your forthrightness. Also, if you need a couch to sleep on…….
now we are talking (from the WSJ):
“A top U.S. Senate Republican called for a criminal investigation into the executives at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, marking the latest fallout since the government announced over the weekend it would take the reins of the firms.
Sen. John Cornyn of Texas and vice-chair of the Senate Republican Conference, asked the Department of Justice to investigate possible “accounting fraud and other corrupt practices perpetuated by top executives” at the two firms.
“The public deserves a full understanding of the events surrounding the failure of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and, furthermore, corporate executives must be held accountable to the American people,” Cornyn said in a letter to U.S. Attorney General Michael Mukasey released by the senator’s office.”
Kettle,
On your numbers I’m fine. I agree that the number is very high but I don’t think that it spells the end of the world.
The wealth wasn’t accumulated in one year and wasn’t destroyed on one year either.
It is also a paper number that we are looking at. Trying to sell all those assets (Real Estate) at the same time has the result of plunging the amount you can realize for the asset to plummet.
The up-down movement of housing over the last six years was a very wild swing. The generated value and destroyed value wont be noticed by many Americans, it is like the money didn’t exist at all. The problem come in with those who “cashed-out” during the bubble walking away, spending stupidly, or hiding it under their mattress.
If a majority of it was “paper” value then it really wont have as drastic an effect on the economy as what you have noted. The paper bust cycle already has had 2 years to work its magic too so your looking at 4 x the GDP of the US and if it takes us another 2 years to reach bottom then the pain will be diluted even farther.
My mind was going too fast for my fingers.
The ideas just poured out a little too fast.
233 Nom
The dems have embraced corn but also sworn off nuclear and some NG.
“Obama: “As president, I will tap our natural gas reserves, invest in clean-coal technology, and find ways to safely harness nuclear power.”
That’s some solid non-biased posting right there.
I prefered Shore threatening everyone with WWIII…
I never did blow, weed, beer and hookers. No, really. I’m serious. Seriously. I swear. No, it’s the truth. It is… really. I swear to… I mean, really.
233 Nom
The dems have embraced corn but also sworn off nuclear and some NG.
“O: “As president, I will tap our natural gas reserves, invest in clean-coal technology, and find ways to safely harness nuclear power.”
That’s some solid non-biased posting right there.
I preferred Shore threatening everyone with WWIII…
skep,
I think I posted yesterday of an OFHEO report that accused the GSE’s of accounting problems and corruption.
First page said that they lobbied congress to get the OFHEO VP removed from his position or risk reduced funding until he was replaced because they didn’t like OFHEO all up in their buisness.
Systemic problems at GSE for years is what it looked like. No big surprise.
279 Shore - I am the best wife ever. I am fully in support of fantasy sports leagues and guys trips to Vegas.
I am going to good wife heaven.
“they lobbied congress” == GSEs lobbied congress
http://www.ofheo.gov/media/pdf/FNMSPECIALEXAM.PDF
Its a bit old but it covers the period from 1998-2004 and is published in 2006.
This covers a large portion of the bubble period.
#281 nicholas: I know quite a few people who made real financial decesions based on those so called paper numbers.
The fact that those numbers have now dropped dramatically, on paper, is/will cause serious problems for many of those people.
Shore
The Gator is the real deal. There are no taboos in our household and she is more than welcome to participate in the debauchery as well. If one is content in their marriage, then there is no reason to hide anything. If one is not content, then one should divorce before f’in around. Just like Mc and his 1st wife did. Oh wait.
Tis true Shore. I even have the passwords to his fantasy league message boards. Heck I drafted the team the first season before Stu closely followed football (there were a high number of underperforming Florida alumni on the team in those days).
Heck, our social calendar is stored in Stu’s personal email account. He really is an open book.
“He really is an open book.”
Yeah…an open book! ;)
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services on Wednesday kept Lehman Brothers Holdings’s (LEH:Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc
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LEH 7.01, -0.78, -10.0%) ratings, including its A long-term credit rating, on review for a possible downgrade, due to concerns about the investment bank’s earnings potential. The announcement comes after Lehman said it expects to report a larger-than-expected pretax loss of $7.2 billion in the third quarter. “We continue to be concerned also about Lehman’s longer range earnings potential, considering changes in its business mix, potential damage to its business franchise from recent turmoil, and uncertainty as to when market conditions might recover,” said Scott Sprinzen, an S&P analyst. “We continue to view Lehman’s near-term liquidity as satisfactory, however,” he added. A decision on Lehman’s review is likely within 90 days, S&P said.
McCain and Obama tommorow down at ground zero with Bloomberg as host for the World Trade Center Site Memorial Ceremony and Remembrance.
#281
I think one further problem is the amount of leverage that was based on these paper gains. Maybe kettle can correct me here, but I believe the resulting deleveraging is a major source of deflation
Obama, McCain Agree: No Big Exit Packages for Fannie, Freddie CEOs
Posted Sep 10, 2008
They say politics make strange bedfellows, but it’s really no surprise both John McCain and Barack Obama are protesting the pay packages due to the outgoing CEOs of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
“It would be unacceptable for executives of these institutions to earn a windfall at a time when (the) U.S. Treasury has taken unprecedented steps to rescue these companies with taxpayer resources,” Obama said.
While I wince at the term “windfall,” it’s hard to disagree with Obama’s major point.
After collecting over $17 million since 2003, Freddie CEO Richard Syron is eligible to receive as much as $14 million in additional compensation. Fannie’s Daniel Mudd is eligible for a $9.3 million “exit package” after pocketing $12.4 million in compensation since 2004.
Although such sums pale in comparison to the packages granted to outgoing Wall Street CEOs like Stan O’Neal and Chuck Prince, it’s hard to justify any additional compensation, given the performance of Fannie and Freddie.
Syron, for one, may forfeit some of the bounty, the Wall Street Journal says, and Henry Blodget thinks both he and Mudd should relinquish all of it. Rather than leave it up to the regulators, my advice is to let the shareholders decide; yes, the same shareholders who didn’t get to vote on the government plan which effectively wiped them out.
Mc and O tommorow down at ground zero with Bloomie as host for the World Trade Center Site Memorial Ceremony and Remembrance.
283 (Gary)-
After meeting you and reading some of your stuff on here, I’m going to parse out that statement and figure out what you’ve strategically left out.
Victorian,
#197 …Wachovia was downgraded yesterday before the open by Merrill.
Plus, yesterday, the Lehman episode.
That is dealer auction price. Mine was a one owner lease trade in excelent condition that was fully BMW certified and comes with a 3 year 69k warranty. The dealer even put on four new tires and it has prem and cold package plus nav. They are like 34K at a dealer. KBB sometimes is not of much use. If you are a dealer you can track the auction prices as they change in detail in almost real time. They literally change every day like the stock mkt. KBB for some reason has the trade in price lower on the 5 series than dealer trade in for this model and it does not account for one owner BMW serviced and BMW certified adds a lot to the BMW trade in value. The Benz I have I bought off a used car dealer without history cheap ended up costing me a ton in parts. Paying a little extra for a one owner dealer maintained mint BMW or Mercedes saves you a ton in the end. There were tons of 3 series today and I could of got one for a song, my friend said there were tons of Esclades with no one bidding on them. I should have bought one and rented a parking spot in NYC and called it my pied a tier!!
Hard Place Says:
September 10th, 2008 at 2:57 pm
John’s 525xi - $28.4k doesn’t sound that hot. What was KBB? Must be a fully loaded model. Than the deal is pretty good.
Kettle #243
Trillion here and a Trillion there. No problem. lol
According to your theory we should be in a deflationary period today. Housing worth and credit has evaporated yet the inflation is creaping up.
Skeptic 281,
yes.
Nick,
I am not suggesting the end of the world. I am suggesting that the scope and scale of this mess is GROSSLY understated.
if we assume a 50% margin of error on my WAG (Wild Azz Guess) numbers from above then we are looking at about 50-100 trillion that ceases to exist.
That is deflation. the portion of that 50-100 trillion in US banks is counted in the M3 measurements.
International…. that is the key here. That 50-100 trillion is not just US money it is scattered around the globe. It is hurting Japanese, Russian, Korean, Spanish banks. This is a global event. A significant chunk of that 50 trillion is in US banks, but the rest is international. The portion of that 50 trillion.
As a side note consider that the total global derivatives market is on the order 1 quadrillion dollars ( 1,000 trillion). These instrument are leveraged to the sky and we will see mark to market of these instruments take a large chunk out of their current mark to model value.
Skeptic 281,
yes.
Nick,
I am not suggesting the end of the world. I am suggesting that the scope and scale of this mess is GROSSLY understated.
if we assume a 50% margin of error on my WAG (Wild A$$ Guess) numbers from above then we are looking at about 50-100 trillion that ceases to exist.
That is deflation. the portion of that 50-100 trillion in US banks is counted in the M3 measurements.
International…. that is the key here. That 50-100 trillion is not just US money it is scattered around the globe. It is hurting Japanese, Russian, Korean, Spanish banks. This is a global event. A significant chunk of that 50-100 trillion is in US banks, but the rest is international.
As a side note consider that the total global derivatives market is on the order 1 quadrillion dollars (1,000 trillion). These instrument are leveraged to the sky and we will see mark to market of these instruments take a large chunk out of their current mark to model value.
I got stuck in moderation for the M and O word.
Skeptic 281,
yes.
Nick,
I am not suggesting the end of the world. I am suggesting that the scope and scale of this mess is GROSSLY understated.
if we assume a 50% margin of error on my WAG (Wild A$$ Guess) numbers from above then we are looking at about 50-100 trillion that ceases to exist.
That is deflation. the portion of that 50-100 trillion in US banks is counted in the M3 measurements.
International…. that is the key here. That 50-100 trillion is not just US money it is scattered around the globe. It is hurting Japanese, Russian, Korean, Spanish banks. This is a global event. A significant chunk of that 50-100 trillion is in US banks, but the rest is international. The portion of that 50-100 trillion.
As a side note consider that the total global derivatives market is on the order 1 quadrillion dollars ( 1,000 trillion). These instrument are leveraged to the sky and we will see mark to market of these instruments take a large chunk out of their current mark to model value.
M and O will be at Columbia U for a forum @ 8PM and most likely will be tying up traffic in the rest of the city all day.
http://www.columbia.edu/cu/news/newyorkstories/servicenation.html
Interesting, bond market trades to 5pm, I see WM bonds being bought and I also see SOV bonds rising. Now is WM bonds being bought as people think it will be wiped out equity wise but bondholders will be spared like Bear. Also is SOV bonds rising as since they are the Number 2 bank, WAMUs fall gives them number one plus FED/OTS may be more likely to prop them up as you can’t have the number one and number two S&Ls go under. Both SOV and WAMU stk are down a bit in afterhours trading. Weird.
Make $,
I kind of agree with Kettle about the deflation. I say “kind of” because on one hand we have been seeing housing decrease month over month.
The cash carriers buying power in RE is increasing no doubt. Because housing is getting cheaper there will be more money available for consumer goods over the long run.
This leads into his inflationary period where goods cost more because there is more disposable money.
22:
If you don’t think that O has been talking policy, then you’re a bad listener.
http://www.slate.com/blogs/blogs/schoolhouse/archive/2008/09/10/obama-speaks.aspx
One-second websearch. Countless others like it.
This “pox on both their houses” sh*t is getting tired.
Make,
i would argue we are already seeing deflation and that there is no inflation in the US at the moment. will respond in detail later….. actually have some work
if i get this right can i have bergabe’s job???
Getting stuck in moderation is a death-knell for your post.
By the time it gets unstuck, the thread has progressed so far that no one ever gets to look at it.
Is it possible to get the posts that are stuck in moderation appended to the end of the thread? That would be preferable; first come, first served unless you violate the rules. Rule violators go to the end of the line.
[284], schab,
I can’t keep up with O’s shifting positions. No time. If you want to, have at it.
I rank the quote right up there with renegotiating NAFTA (just kidding Canada, only talking up the flyover yokels, wink, wink). During the primaries, he was not pro-nuke or for expanding NG exploration that I recall. Further, I doubt he would go against the “progressive” wing, which is avowedly anti-nuke, anti-fossil fuel, and anti-exploration.
So where does that leave him? How can he (or you) rationalize his position du jour in light of his politics, his supporters, and their positions? Granted, the Dems have suddenly embraced exploration (I thougth W baited them beautifully with that) and I have no doubt that they will triangulate into that position post election. But why equivocate?
305 Kettle,
I would love to hear the explanation as of how there is no inflation in US right now.
I love when O gives a speech. His lips move but I can’t hear what he’s saying. He reminds of a low fat, Bill Cosby stand-up routine.
[286] Gator,
You have competition. Mrs. Deplume loves pro football, college basketball (don’t get btwn her and the TV during March Madness—you will get hurt), doesn’t think I own enough power tools and has said I don’t take enough “guy” time!!!
chi (204)-
Which facts do you disagree with?
- USD rising vs. gold, oil?
- Chinese banks holding larger USD reserves?
vodka (255)-
Unwind of the carry trade as October Surprise?
Why not? It’s as plausible as any other doomsday scenario…
[227] Stu,
Yes, there was a run on ammo. And guns. But it had to do with legislation, not BC. As gov of Arkansas, Bill wasn’t much of a threat to clamp down on ownership or ammo. Can’t say the same for O; look at his Illinois senate record—he is either lying or flip-flopping on guns and either way, I don’t trust him. Would you in my position?
As for the economy of the 90’s, get real. Either you are baiting me or I gave you too much credit. Virtually every economist and political observer will tell you that BC had little to do with the economic “success” of the 90’s (which was bubble-driven). He may have extended it with Greenspan and easy money, and a focus on expanding home ownership (seem to recall Gore trumpeting that), Section 121 of the tax code (which commoditized housing), and partnership revisions (can you say “carried interest”) and we are certainly paying for that now. Giving Bill credit for the economy of the 90’s (though no one is taking ownership of the bubbles) is like giving him credit for the sun coming up.
Further, Enron, Worldcom, and the like happened under his DoJ’s and SEC’s watch, and were left to the W watch to clean up. (or do you seriously believe that there were no crooked companies or US hating terrorists before 1/20/01?).
Finally, the BC that dems all wax misty for was the same one they reviled when he “triangulated” and supported GOP initiatives, or did we forget that already? Remember “The era of big government is over”? Okay, on that final point, I agree with Bill, even if he really didn’t substantially cut anything but the Defense Dept.
Clotpoll Says:
September 10th, 2008 at 4:46 pm
chi (204)-
Which facts do you disagree with?
- USD rising vs. gold, oil….as site of storage of surplus capital
- Chinese banks holding larger USD reserves….relative to what, they have an ongoing surplus through the passage of time and are forcing a weak USD-peg to exasberate the effect, so of course….so what?
Nom 311 - I love a good competition.
Pro Football: Check
College Basketball - While I do help arrange my office March Madness pool, I much prefer college football. This is because during my time in Gainesville, Gator basketball sucked except for that Cinderella Year of 2004 when Gator final four tickets were available to the generl public because no one held season tickets.
Power Tools - Bring em on. I am a smart woman. Stu does house and other stuff for me with them. He can have as many as he wants.
Flat screen TV - I keep saying buy it. he’s the one who holds off because it’s not cheap enough.
Heck, I even allowed him to buy a $500 universal remote control.
what does a $500 remote do besides change channels?
[227] stu, redux,
Entitlement programs? Well, BC got crucified for the very first one he tried. Then the Dems got crucified in the midterms. So, no, he did not. Couldn’t if he wanted to.
NJGator Says:
Power Tools - Bring em on. I am a smart woman. Stu does house and other stuff for me with them. He can have as many as he wants.
John? John, where are you? I picture you standing at your keyboard typing rapid fire with your two index fingers… please reply before I head home. Thx.
[316] Gator,
1. Mrs Deplume and I also like college football but we are both grads of 1-AA schools (CAA competitors but joined in a common hatred of Delaware) so it doesn’t carry the same gravitas as Villanova or UMass basketball. She also organizes the office pool and usually is in several. During games, she has all her sheets laid out before her, checking off games.
2. I don’t have the tools because we had no room until now. Now I am thinking of building an extension on the garage for a workshop (grunting noises). Still, I am pretty cheap so I only buy what I have use for and cannot make with handtools. My largest power tool was a cement mixer (which prompted my friend to kid me: why does an italian in center city phila need a cement mixer? Do any work in your back yard at night?) and I rebuilt it when it broke (more grunting noises).
3. Big screen is a-coming. We agree on that.
What in the HECK are you folks doing up in BC? qa Corpse? A friggen CORPSE?
http://www.app.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080910/NEWS/80910048
HACKENSACK — A former lab technician who was caught having sex with a corpse in a hospital morgue is likely to receive time served as his punishment.
A judge on Tuesday sentenced Anthony Merino to seven years in prison. But under a complex plea deal, he will be able to seek a reduced sentence next month.
He has already been in jail since his arrest in October 2007.
The 25-year-old had admitted sexually penetrating the corpse of a 92-year-old woman at Holy Name Hospital in Teaneck. A hospital security guard caught him in the act.
Two psychiatrists said in separate reports that Merino needs psychological help and the plea agreement calls for therapy
[321]
EWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW
“Two psychiatrists said in separate reports that Merino needs psychological help”
Really? Do ya’ think? I wonder how fricken long it took them to make that determination. Under what circumstances could one do that and NOT need psychological help?
“Two psychiatrists said in separate reports that Merino needs psychological help”
that is definitely not a situation where a second opinion is needed
What are the odds that this guy was just so unlucky to have gotten caught the very first time he tried this?
“I finally find the dead 92 year old of my dreams and this happens..”
Before I read through the comments, just wanted to report on a lowball/comp killer in my town. It is in Middlesex County, so no MLS numbers for you folks…
3Br 2.5Ba ranch on a busy street
175 x 100 lot
House has been vacant for 18 months, original owner moved to new home.
Originally listed early spring 2007: $565,000
Current list price (on 3rd realtor): $420,000
Neighbor around the block with same realtor has been chasing his price down accordingly for almost a year. Same story - original owner now looking to cash in & move south.
Gag. This guy finally found a woman even Bill Clinton wouldn’t shtup.
243 Kettle
I can’t punish someone who’s as mathmatically retarded as I am.
Sorry that was 251.
THE remote was only $325 and it controls everything with easily programmable macros. If this thing existed in the 60’s I would have had more ladies than Quagmire. It can even adjust my AC. When you have as convoluted a setup as I have, you appreciate the ability to get rid of the 12 remotes. It is definitely a toy, but I make back most of my savings in not having to replace all of the batteries in my other remotes. You should see my series 1 Tivo and what I have added it it over the years. When the Nielson people opened it up, they were quite impressed. They also said I was their first customer who has ever programmed their ratings box to work with a universal remote. My favorite feature is that you can customize the touch screen buttons. If little Ryan wants to watch a DVD, he simply hits the popcorn button. On goes the TV, the amp adjusts the volume, the DVD goes to play, the TV changes to the correct input and channel and I don’t have to move a finger! When it’s time to turn off the system…one button to press. It’s a thing of lazy beauty! My surround sound set up is movie theater-like
Nom -
‘but joined in a common hatred of Delaware’
Finally something that everyone can agree on. First off - what kind of a mascot is a friggin Blue Hen? Not exactly fear inspiring…and a tad too feminine for a men’s football team.
My company relocated many back office jobs to a shared services center in Wilmington about 5 years ago. Strangest place I ever have to visit. Let’s just say there is no sense of urgency down there ever. Everyone leaves at 445 (so they don’t have to wait in line to exit the garage), calls out at the slightest trace of snow and thinks that a 20 minute door to door commute is way too long, and can’t articulate a single fun thing to do in town. Our A/P staff there never worked in our industry and didn’t understand why they couldn’t pay our world famous photographers just like they paid any old invoice for joe vendor unde net 45 day terms. The place is frequently referred to in my office as the ‘black hole of Delaware.’
There was a great aricle in The New Republic by Jonathan Chait a few years back called ‘Delaware - The Worst State’, and is a must read for all Delaware haters. I highly recommend it. It’s all about how the state makes money off of the backs of eveyone else - they eviscerated their usury laws, so they got all the bank and credit card business, they charge 3-4xs what Maryland and NJ charge per mile in tolls on their segment of I-95 because most of that cost is paid by out of state drivers. They have quite a colorful criminal justice and discrminatory past. It’s a good read, if you can find it.
What has the reaction to the proposed toll increase been “up north?” Down the Shore it is like pitchforks and flaming torches. The reaction is fairly outsized for the size of the increase, and it seems to be just one more indication that people are tapped out. When folks lack another, perhaps, $300 over the course of the year for tolls, how on earth can they bid-up home prices; heck, how can the pay current prices?
Is it the same north of the river?
It also makes me wonder if this will have any spillover into the presidential race.
I will throw my hat into the cool wife category- mostly for reasons I can’t post here. However, I can say a few things like: I route for my husband’s fav hockey team as long as they aren’t playing my fav team. I love going to hockey games. P’lin’s got nothing on me.
I took DH to Vegas for his 30th bday and got him lap dances all night.
I told DH I don’t care what he does on his bachelor party so long as I never hear about it.
Never had a problem with him being out on weekends with the boys.
Within reason, I make his fav foods as often as I can.
I can go on but it gets either too boring or too racy.
bruiser 342 Welcome to my world up here`in Sussex County.
“Neighbor around the block with same realtor has been chasing his price down accordingly for almost a year. Same story - original owner now looking to cash in & move south.”
Guy across the street has been chasing the market down for 18 months. Already has a `place FLA. Guy around the corner over 2 years in new place even farther out in NJ (bet you didn’t think that was possible)chasing it down to. I sit & wait.
332 Skep - Exactly. I didn’t undertand it, but I let him buy it, hence I am an excellent wife.
Gator,
I heard they wanted to be the fighting blue cocks. The tolls there do suck. I bet it is even more than 3-4x the toll rate in NJ.
348 Shore - As someone who lives up North along the GSP, I can say I’m none too happy with it. The entire state is a fiscal mess, why should I bear more of the brunt of that while people who live in Hunterdon County (sorry Clot) get away scott free?
Lost 344 I think ket would prefer it!
Gator, you were making progress as my favorite candidate…..until you revealed your Blue Hen-phobia.
My daughter goes to Blue Hen U and I’ve learned to love the First State as only a $30K tuition bill will do. Their In-State Tuition is such a bargain, I gave serious thought to moving down there. We could live for free with what I’d save. Add in the car insurance, the real estate taxes, the lack of a sales tax. The only downside I could find is….I’d have to pump my own gas.
Gator,
I have a question. The increase is something like 170% over 15 years, and it has been, what, 20 years since the last increase. Even just moving forward the increase does not seem outsized on a yearly percentage basis — less than price and wage inflation; when taking into account the rate since the last increase it is even smaller. If housing prices had gone up in similar fashion over the same period, this blog would not exist, and housing would be even more affordable now than in the past.
What is it about the tolls? It seems like it must be that toll outrage is directed from other frustrations.
Gator,
I heard they wanted to be the fighting blue c0cks. After trying out the cheers, they passed.
The tolls there do suck. I bet it is even more than 3-4x the toll rate in NJ.
#347 Gator: I agree as bad as NJ is, Delaware is IMO even worse, and very red neck too.
And who can take any team seriously that is called the Blue Hens. Sorry Fiddy.
349…lap dances? If you were really cool you would do a threesome with he and another MILF~
353 Mike
Yeah but then it goes on forever because neither can count how many wacks have been administered. :)
Is Delaware really that bad? I guess that’s not on the list of places to consider moving. How about Maryland?
john, 28k for a car? what happened to the millionaire next door logic?
ah, to each his own.
when my 1997 mazada (free!) craps out, i plan on buying a lexus … from a relative. 2001, i think. i think i’ll pay 8k.
#359 IMO MD is head and shoulders above DE.
I love the internets. Here is the aforementioned Delaware article:
http://faculty.msb.edu/murphydd/CRIC/Readings/Delaware-TNR02.htm
“Why rednecks may rule the world”
We fry things nobody ever considered friable - things like cupcakes, banana sandwiches and batter dipped artificial cheese…even pickles.
Her daughter had a baby out of wedlock? Big deal. What family has not?
And most of all we are defiant and suspicious of authority, and people who are “uppity” (sophisticated) and “slick” (people who use words with more than three syllables). Two should be enough for anybody.
And that is one of the reasons that, mystifying as it is to the outside world, John Mc’s choice of the moose-shooting Alaskan woman with the pregnant unmarried teen daughter appeals to many redneck and working class Americans.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/today/hi/today/newsid_7600000/7600592.stm
#363 And that is whay we are going down the tubes.
Stu,
I have been thinking I might want one of those. Now I know I do. I’d like to learn more about it sometime. You can get my e-mail from Grim.
hearing that major banks are cutting
home equity credit lines in NJ.
what are the rest of you hearing?
kettle - i dont comment here often. thanks for your research. the housing losses are staggering and we are not done. however the trillion dollar numbers you’re posting look absurdThere’s less that $10trn of govt debt, ~2.5 trn of consumer debt excluding mortgages. How in the world would available credit decrease by 50-100trn? if this were remotely true we would have zero credit now.
that calculation of housing loss you posted yesterday is ridiculous especially the FX adjustment part. the author is a sensationalist selling his finance course/books
Jack haven’t heard anything but I have no doubt that it is happening or will be very soon.
The hens really are blue-ish. I don’t think it has anything to do with democrats, either.
Could’ve been worse….she was also considering the University of South Carolina. Go ‘cocks go!
guest13 Not to answer for ket but lets say your #s are right still in the sh*T or what?
Jack 366
I did not here about that. I have two large lines of credit through Wacovia on two of ny properties. I never use them but I like having the access. Pretty sure they are still ok equity wise even though the value of the houses went down. Do you have a link to any info about this?
Shore, it’s the Harmony 1000 and it’s now down to $290. The cool part is that the programming on the remote is done on Logtech’s website so even if the batteries go dead, you don’t lose the programming. The negative is that it took me about 20 hours to program it to do everything I wanted it to do.
The database of appliances it works with is outrageous. It could probably control your Roomba. The other cool thing is that unlike most cheap universal remotes, once you tell it what appliances you have by model number and brand, it automatically lists all of the buttons that came with the appliance remotes.
Someone I know recently got there HELOC cut for not using it. I think it depends on one’s credit, but I’m not certain.
guest.
kettle - i dont comment here often. thanks for your research.
my pleasure :)
the housing losses are staggering and we are not done. however the trillion dollar numbers you’re posting look absurd There’s less that $10trn of govt debt, ~2.5 trn of consumer debt excluding mortgages. How in the world would available credit decrease by 50-100trn? if this were remotely true we would have zero credit now.
1. if you include unfunded liabilities the US government and hence people are on the hook for about 60 trillion. that includes the 10 trillion in national debt and the 53 trillion in unfunded liabilities as stated by the GAO (government accounting office)
2. we must recognize that my calculations were simply a display of the order of magnitude of our problem and cannot be directly applied. The point, is leverage. put 10 dollars in a bank and they will loan out 9 of them. that bank now has 19 dollars in its portfolio even though only 10 existed initially. The same effect works in reverse. the 100 trillion is simple a demonstration of the magnitude of the problem that leverage and hence deleverageing poses. the 10 trillion in consumer mortgages (per the FED) as of 2007 has been leveraged in a similar matter. so when 60% of the mortgages value disappears so does the money leveraged on it.
that calculation of housing loss you posted yesterday is ridiculous especially the FX adjustment part. the author is a sensationalist selling his finance course/books
I am not an economist or a finance guy so hey, maybe you have a point. but consider that according to the shiller index we have dropped about 20%. according to the FED 06 total housing value was 20 trillion. thats 4 trillion right there. now you may disagree with how the guy adjusted for inflation, but are you suggesting that that is invalid? even if it is invalid we are stuck with a minimum of 4 trillion in losses so far. for me the difference between 4 and 6 trillion is irrelevant when we have another40% off peak prices to drop assuming we revert to mean. either way my point remains that the losses we face due to the massive credit bubble that just popped are drastically understated.
and thanks i always enjoy a good debate :)
guest
please also see my post #315 for further comment,
welcome aboard matey
make $
regarding my comment earlier about no inflation. if we are talking about inflation deflation in regards to money supply (austrian school) then we are currentlyin deflation even before the real deleveraging starts. the current M3 numbers are flat, but that includes financial instruments that are marked to model not marked to market. in other words the current m3 measurement includes money that doesnt exist. it is being counted because the banks are hiding the garbage in level 3 assets and such. i believe that some markets such as oil and RE are already showing deflation even if the banks havent come clean yet.
I assume you think of inflation in terms of price level (keynesian school). my response to that is simply scarcity. scarcity of many raw materials in the last few years has been having a domino effect. please also note that i am saying that we were experiencing montetary inflation until sometime this year , probably between february and april, then we dropped into deflation that has been masked by the banks refusal to mark to market.
Chi (330)-
Sorry, should have been more specific. And- specifically- what I meant was: I have seen reports that the Chinese gubmint has mandated that their banks MUST carry higher proportional reserves of USD…thus making them larger net holders of USD than ever before.
This seems to my straight-line brain to be a deliberate ploy to tamp down the yuan to keep their exports flowing our way. Seems like some other countries are also pumping up the USD a bit to take some of the steam out of one of the bright spots of our economy: manufacture for export.
(336)-
That takes May-December relationship to a whole new level.
guest
a more realistic calc:
total US MBS = 6 trillion
total home value = 20 trillion
assume 60% reversion to mean:
26 trillion x 40% =8.4 trillion
so you had a total value of 26 trillion that will drop to 8.4 trillion. oh and reversion to mean always overshoots…. so we have a min loss of about 17 trillion not counting all of the other alphabet soup instruments
the 8.4 trillion represent a loss of about 70% of the value of said assets!!!!
this also only considers the US. Spain, Britian, Australia….. this has been a global credit bubble and you will see these loses repeated around the globe.
gator (352)-
“…why should I bear more of the brunt of that while people who live in Hunterdon County (sorry Clot) get away scott free?”
You’re kidding, right? We’ve been McGreevey and Corzine’s whipping boys for years now. Think the Highlands Act/COAH revisions, etc are anything more than political punishment? Please.
Dems in this state toss bread & circuses to their constituency and punish the rest of us. Same as it ever was.
jack (366)-
Old news.
kettle - i got a confused by that last example..
let’s use your numbers:
total home values= 20trn
total MBS = 6trn
that would mean that in total there is 14trn of equity in the RE market. logical, no?
If home prices dropped by 50% it would not even start to eat into the value of MBS.
of course its not that simple.. equity is not uniformly distributed and recent vintage mortgages do get hit when home values drop.
more later if i can
Nice. Heilman comes in to relieve Pelfry. First thing he does is walk a .160 hitter to start the inning. I liked Heilman a lot more when he doesn’t play.
Anyone wanna see Rutger’s tommorow night at UNC? I have an extra ticket.
i am not trying to calculate the exact value. if i was being to general i apologize. the point remains we are looking at trillions in loses without accounting for the leverage involved. i will leave the accounting to the exprts, of which i am not.
oh and doesnt piss you off when you go to the freezer and find and empty bottle of vodka!!! not even a back up bottle in the pantry!!!!
now i am annoyed!!!!
And there’s the 2-run homer. Can someone put some rat poison in his gatorade bottle already?
k -no worries.. the losses are so huge anyway that there is no need to exagerate them.
Stu, if you and L want to have a nice little vacation in MD, it’s yours..for a remote programming fee.
You’ll have your pick of horseback riding, biking, golf and generally weird country life. Everybody will know your name on day one. When I drive down the main street and out into the farmlands and country lanes, I can hear munchkins singing.
For the last few weeks, my dear H has attempted to program the remote(s).
We are down to two or three. And that’s with our stereo still in boxes somewhere.
Bethany Beach DE is pretty cool if you want a laid back vacation. Cool little main street, uncrowded beaches.
We tried to go there last week, but there was an accident on the bridge. We were warned to wait. I’ve been checking out some places for October, though.
Anybody know anyone with oceanfront, Dewey, Rehoboth, etc.?
Well, some annoying anecdotal evidence. I crunched the numbers for closings in August in our neighborhood in NE Monmouth. While DOM’s are way up and OLP’s are down somewhat, average % off OLP came in at a whopping 3% over a 21 closings for Aug (was 7% in July, and 12% in June). Avg. selling price/sq.ft is down only a few percent vs last year. In a nutshell, the average move in ready 4 br, 2 ba CHC on ~.5 acre was selling for around 625K last year, now selling for around 610K, but still selling. I know prices are sticky on the way down, but the rate of price decrease seems to be waning. I do believe there is some price erosion not showing up in the selling prices as a result of seller upgrades and fixes that previously would have been passed on. This has been confirmed by my realtor who is telling me that only truly move in ready homes sell quickly at or near OLP. She mentioned one client who listed at 675, couldn’t sell, put 30k in to kitchens and baths and sold for close to 675K.
Anywho, we’ll keep renting, waiting, and saving.
Russian strategic bombers in Venezuela, Interesting.
JBJB (389)-
How hard are you weighting price/sf in your calculations?
Pardon my bluntness, but price/sf is useless for residential RE.
and we’ve jumped the shark. Next venture?
Find an record at least 5 different numbers you could count by so the somewhere in the count you would reach 400
Hi webmaster!