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From CNBC:
More Home Rescue Plans? Let Prices Fall And Start Over Again
It seems as if every day there is another mortgage rescue plan being bandied about the business pages and the cable waves, so why should today be any different?
There are in fact two today: FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair’s plan to guarantee three million mortgages so as to give mortgage investors incentives to modify loans and another proposal in the New York Times editorial pages from Prof. John Geanakoplos. The professor wants to take the power to modify loans away from master servicers and give it to local trustees, thereby relieving the servicers of liability for losses. The theory is that servicers have been slow to modify because they don’t want the loan investors to sue them.
Of course these ideas come on top of the FHA rescue program that just went into effect a few weeks ago and the TARP which has yet to decide how it wants to deal with all the bad loans it’s now allowed to buy.
…
What I’m getting at here is that no matter how far we go in modifying, restructuring, writing down principal on loans in order to stop foreclosures, the bottom line is that most of the borrowers in trouble had no business being in the homes they bought in the first place. You can modify their loans for five years, but they will probably lose the home anyway.
Is that mean? It’s not meant to be. I just think that in order to set the market right we need to let prices fall to where they must and start over again with mortgages, buyers and homes that make sense. We’re all losing money here, but that’s because so many people took advantage of free money during the housing boom (and don’t get me started on how those who didn’t take advantage of that free money still get screwed).
I understand the need to restore the credit markets and stop the crash in housing, but keeping folks in homes that are way beyond their means is just prolonging the pain of the inevitable.
Has the slump finally hit commercial?
From the Record:
Bankruptcy court for big-box construction company
March Associates, Inc., the Wayne-based construction manager for big box stores, shopping centers and office buildings throughout North Jersey, filed for bankruptcy reorganization today.
The company, which was started by Louis D. March Sr. in 1986 in a small office above a Fotomat store, reported assets of $5.9 million and liabilities of $4.8 million in the Chapter 11 filing.
Daniel Stolz, a Millburn attorney representing March Associates, said the company was forced to file for bankruptcy to keep creditors at bay after a legal dispute held up a $6 million payment owed for building a luxury condominium community in Long Branch.
The company web site says March Associates has annual revenues of $175 million and was listed among the top 400 contractors nationwide for the last four years. A company representative, however, said the site had not been updated for three years. Dun and Bradstreet reported March Associates revenue at $112 million, with 46 employees.
From Newsday:
Harrah’s cuts jobs at 4 Atlantic City casinos
Harrah’s Entertainment Inc. is cutting employees at its four Atlantic City casinos.
The casinos are Harrah’s Resort, Bally’s Atlantic City, Caesars Atlantic City and Showboat Casino Hotel.
The gaming company won’t say how many are being laid off.
The Press of Atlantic City reports employment figures compiled by the New Jersey Casino Control Commission show there were hundreds of job cuts at Bally’s and Caesars.
Just when you thought the problem was contained to Subprime, ARM, Alt-A, Auto, and Plastic…
`Panic’ Strikes East Europe Borrowers as Banks Cut Franc Loans
Foreign-denominated loans helped fuel eastern European economies including Poland, Romania and Ukraine, funding home purchases and entrepreneurship after the region emerged from communism. The elimination of such lending is magnifying the global credit crunch and threatening to stall the expansion of some of Europe’s fastest-growing economies.
“What has been a factor of strength in recent years has now become a social weakness,” said Tom Fallon, emerging-markets head in Paris at La Francaise des Placements, which manages $11 billion.
…
Since the end of August, the forint has fallen 16 percent against the Swiss franc, the currency of choice for Hungarian homebuyers, and more than 8 percent versus the euro. Foreign- currency loans make up 62 percent of all household debt in the country, up from 33 percent three years ago.
Romania’s leu dropped more than 14 percent against the dollar and 3.2 percent against the euro. Poland’s zloty declined more than 17 percent against the dollar and 6.8 percent versus the euro, and Ukraine’s hryvnia plunged 22 percent to the dollar and 11.5 percent to the euro.
…
Plunging domestic currencies mean higher monthly payments for businesses and households repaying foreign-denominated loans, forcing them to scale back spending.
…
Rafal Mrowka, a driver from Ostrow Wielkopolski in western Poland, says he became addicted to checking foreign-currency rates as monthly installments on his Swiss-franc mortgage jumped 25 percent.
“I’ve even stopped getting nervous, now I can only laugh,” the 32-year-old, first-time property owner said.
The bulk of eastern Europe’s credit boom was denominated in foreign currencies because they provided for cheaper financing.
Fifth!
The race to ZIRP
From MarketWatch:
Three dissenters reportedly wanted bigger BoJ cut
Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said three of the four dissenting votes against the 0.2 percentage point cut were from board members who had sought a larger quarter-point cut, according to a Kyodo report which cited comments by the central bank chief at a post rate meeting press conference Friday afternoon. The remaining dissenting voice against the rate cut had wanted to hold the lending rate unchanged at 0.5%, he added, without identifying the board member. Shirakawa also reportedly said uncertainty over the outlook for the Japanese economy had increased.
http://www.thedisciplinedinvestor.com/blog/2008/10/29/bruce-springsteens-economic-wisdom/
The Disciplined Investor
“Bruce Springsteen’s Economic Wisdom”
for the fans…
#1 – Grim – That was an excellent presentation of the problem.
#1 – “Is that mean? It’s not meant to be. I just think that in order to set the market right we need to let prices fall to where they must and start over again with mortgages, buyers and homes that make sense”
Wow Diana your thinking is so smart and creative. What a novel idea! No it’s not mean it’s called being honest you dimwit…
excuse me i need java
http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2008/10/paul-krugman-wh.html
Another problem..
“When Consumers Capitulate.”
Paul Krugman
“No, what the economy needs now is something to take the place of the retrenching consumers. That means major fiscal stimulus. And this time the stimulus should take the form of actual government spending rather than rebate checks that consumers probably wouldn’t spend.”
Cindy- it’s easy to call a game play by play from the video tape. I agree it sums up nicely in the article but I want to scream “HELLO McFly!”
BTW- Cindy ur from Cali right?
Reason I ask is I’d love to end up in San Diego one day, any insight?
(11) cooper “Hello McFly!” – good one.
At this rate – they throw something out there and wait for everyone to explain to them what the unintended consequenses are.
I do not know much about CA – Sad huh. I was born here, went to college but then moved to Oregon for 21 years. Since I’ve been back, I’ve had my nose to the grindstone – no travel except to the NW to see the kids – grandkids.
San Diego – popular – nice weather – I know nothing…
ooppss – consequences…
Oregon, I work with a former Oregoner, ever since I watched Goonies there has been a certain affinity… Thanks for the feedback.
Diana Olick is hot. And, she wants to let it all burn down.
Happily, I think we are safe from homeowner bailouts, at least for the time being. One thing you can count on from gubmint is that it will never do anything to help individuals. All this “help is on the way” stuff is empty, half-hearted pandering to voters.
From Bloomberg:
More U.S. Homeowners Have Mortgage Higher Than House Is Worth
Almost 20 percent of U.S. mortgage borrowers owed more on their loans in the third quarter than their house was worth as foreclosures depressed prices and the economy weakened, according to First American CoreLogic.
More than 7.5 million properties already have negative equity and another 2.1 million will follow should home prices decline another 5 percent, Santa Ana, California-based First American, a seller of economic and real estate data, said in a report today. Six states account for almost 60 percent of homes with negative equity, led by Nevada and Michigan.
“As long as job losses continue and people face resets on their mortgages, the housing market will be under severe distress,” Sam Khater, a senior economist at First American in Tysons Corner, Virginia, said in an interview. “We’ve created an entire class of homeowner that is very sensitive to price changes.”
From NYT:
Mortgage Plan May Aid Many and Irk Others
As the Treasury Department prepares a $40 billion program to help delinquent homeowners avoid foreclosure, it confronts a difficult challenge: not making the plan too tempting to people like Todd Lawrence.
An airline pilot who lives outside Norwich, Conn., Mr. Lawrence has a traditional 30-year mortgage that he has no trouble paying every month. But, thanks to the plunging real estate market, he owes more on his house than it is worth, like millions of other people.
If the banks, which frequently lent irresponsibly, and many homeowners, who often borrowed irresponsibly, are getting government assistance, Mr. Lawrence says he believes sober souls like himself are also due a break.
“Why am I being punished for having bought a house I could afford?” he asked. “I am beginning to think I would have rocks in my head if I keep paying my mortgage.”
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/GS-bac-Credit-mortgage-wfc-risk/index/a/19757
Keepin’ it real (estate): Banks Value Your Mortgage, Not Your Home
“The best way to get the best deal is to think about what loan will be worth the least to your lender. Low rate, low fees, low risk…who wants that boring paper?
The answer: You do.”
Perhaps the aid should be a free moving van and three-months rent at an apartment. That avoids the moral hazard and puts folks into something thay can afford.
haven’t read one comment, but i just saw this flash across the screen at GMA:
THEY’RE GOING TO FORGIVE CREDIT CARD DEBUT? something about up to 40 percent? And people “on the brink of bankruptcy” will have up to 4 years to pay it back?
* also, i didnt finish reading all the comments yesterday, sorry if this has been discussed
“The bulk of eastern Europe’s credit boom was denominated in foreign currencies because they provided for cheaper financing.”
HAH, HAH! Well for Halloween, the world’s mortgage holders might as well be fx traders. They all hold a speculative forex position and they are clueless about it.
Happy Halloween to all;
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/215/gallery/53515-a53739-t3.html
Cindy [7],
Love it. However, very disappointed. The headline song should be Trapped, one of my fav’s. Didn’t see it on the list.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-kj_mFDaTm8&feature=related
Forgive CC debt link:
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/10/30/BU9P13RE9E.DTL
I have been feeling like a schmuck lately for living within my means.
Cindy,
OOPS, just saw it on the list. Thanks, it’s getting forwarded to about 250 friends, Bruce fans all over the world!
You got me pumped!
[22] Yikes any article link on that?
PS-Olick is hot…
“Diana Olick is hot. And, she wants to let it all burn down.”
Her, along with Gartman and Santelli are the only ones worth watching on CNBC. The rest should be buried with their pom-poms.
“I am beginning to think I would have rocks in my head if I keep paying my mortgage.”
Yes, the idiots are creating a monster. Beware of unintended consequences.
….And as a country they took a deep inhale only to discover they had run out of air.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/30/real_estate/underwater_borrowers/index.htm?cnn=yes
The next revolution will be the easiest one to fight.
No need to rise up and take up arms. No marches, no hate, no anger, no blood.
Just stop paying our debt, and watch it all come down.
This sucker is going down…
“Perhaps the aid should be a free moving van and three-months rent at an apartment. That avoids the moral hazard and puts folks into something thay can afford.”
Shore;
Exactly. Free the prisoners. They signed up for a free call for one reason, price appreciation. The call has expired worthless, move on and start spending. We are losing our title as the world’s greatest spenders. Gotta get back to the top. One other thought, I’d even allow for a stop at the local store and include free lottery tickets for the year.
“This sucker is going down…”
And then, we all swoop in for the upcoming RISING, that’s for Cindy, # 7.
So according to this weeks Fortune mag the bottom 66% of taxpayers only pay $1,300 in income taxes each year. Is the taxes they pay really killing them?
The HENRYS who make between $250K an $500K actually only on average make $287K a year and on average pay $57K in income taxes.
So raising taxes on the people already paying 57K in income taxes and lowering taxes on those paying $1,300 in taxes will make it more fair?
News flash on CNBC; Frank has decided to be a hedge fund trader for Halloween.
“will make it more fair”
John,
You want fair? Move to France. OOPS, France has moved here.
BC (23)-
You get the feeling that Side A and Side B of that cross are both scrooged.
BC (35)-
I thought Frank was going to see if he could fit his head into a pumpkin for Halloween.
Consumer spending down -0.3%, three year low.
RPat (25)-
I got three credit cards with no balances. That’s about to change.
Better start warming up my card swiping wrist…
You have to love this sh*t!
Barclays Seeks $11.8 Billion From Investors to Bolster Capital
Oct. 31 (Bloomberg) — Barclays Plc, Britain’s second-biggest bank, will raise 7.3 billion pounds ($11.8 billion) from a group that includes investors in Abu Dhabi and Qatar as credit-market writedowns deplete capital.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aIWNw2Qu7U5M&refer=home
Hahaha, the saviors of Lehman need their own saviors. It’s like the housing ponzi scheme in reverse.
Big Ben speaks on housing at 2pm today on last day of wild month, should make closing bell extra fun.
United States : Chairman Speech
Highlights
speaks via satellite to the Symposium on the Mortgage Meltdown, the Economy and Public Policy at the University of California at Berkeley
From MarketWatch:
Consumer spending drops in September
onsumer spending fell 0.4% in September, the Commerce Department reported Friday. This is the biggest drop since June 2004. Real consumer spending fell 0.4%. Income rose 0.2% in September after a 0.4% rise in August. Real disposable incomes rose 0.1% in September. The core personal consumption expenditure price index rose 0.2% in September compared with August and is up 2.4% in the past year. Wall Street economists had expected a 0.1% gain in incomes, a 0.3% fall in spending and a 0.2% rise in the core PCE. The decline in spending in September was foreshadowed in the third quarter gross domestic product report released Thursday. The U.S. economy contracted at a 0.3% annualized rate in the third quarter, as consumer spending declined at the fastest rate in 28 years, according to government estimated.
#5 Rich: I sent you an e-mail the other day. If you can respond when you get a chance. I would appreciate it.
HE (41)-
Don’t look now, but the Qatar and Abu Dhabi guys are a mite worried about their massive RE construction obligations. Half-finished 120-story buildings are a real byatch…especially when the prospective tenant pool has dwindled to just about 0.
Besides, the Abu Dhabis have a football club (Man City) that needs more talent. It’s gonna take ‘em another 700-800mm to crack the Champions League. The midfield and back four are still sorely lacking.
Top 20 Banks by Assets, Q1 08 and Q3 08 (Dollars in Millions)
Assets Assets
Top 20 Banks (Q1 08) ($ Bil)
1 Citi 2 ,200 1 Bank of America 2 ,797
2 Bank of America 1 ,737 2 JPMorgan 2 ,251
3 JPMorgan 1 ,643 3 Citi 2 ,050
4 Wachovia 8 09 4 Wells Fargo 1,386
5 Wells Fargo 5 95 5 PNC 2 91
6 Washington Mutual 3 20 6 Bank of NNY 268
7 U.S. Bancorp 242 7 U.S. Bancorp 247
8 Bank of New York 2 05 8 SunTrust 175
9 SunTrust 179 9 Capital One 1 55
10 National City 1 55 10 Regions Fin 144
11 Capital One 1 51 11 BB&T 137
12 Regions 1 44 12 Fifth Third 1 16
13 PNC 1 40 13 Key 1 01
14 BB&T 1 36 14 M&T 6 5
15 Fifth Third 1 11 15 Comerica 6 5
16 KeyCorp 1 01 16 Marshall & Ilsley 6 4
17 Sovereign 8 2 17 UnionBanCal 63
18 Comerica 6 7 18 Synovus 3 4
19 M&T Bank 6 6 19 First Horizon 3 3
20 M&I 6 3 20 Colonial 2 6
First Column top bank Q1, second column Q3 Amazing to see that much change in top 20 banks in six months, heck Wachovia, Wamu, Sov and NCC bit the dust in those six months.
“You get the feeling that Side A and Side B of that cross are both scrooged.”
Clot,
When you are spread, [no comments John], you should never lift one leg of the spread. You then get what you deserve. However, this is pure genuis, the world is getting smoked on both sides of the spread. Even better, most don’t even know that they have side B on. The masters have reached new heights with this charade. The world’s carry will put in under. Happy trading.
From Bloomberg:
U.S. Consumer Spending Fell 0.3% in September, Inflation Cooled
pending by U.S. consumers dropped more than forecast in September, capping its weakest quarter in three decades and signaling the economy will continue to slump in coming months.
The 0.3 percent decrease in purchases was the biggest in four years and followed no change in August, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation cooled.
Job losses, increases in food and fuel costs and falling property values brought an end to the longest expansion in spending on record and made the economy the most important issue in next week’s presidential election. The collapse in lending and sentiment this month indicate Americans will keep retrenching.
“It’s very telling that spending got progressively worse over the quarter,” Ellen Zentner, a senior U.S. economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in New York, said before the report. “It leaves us very little momentum coming into the fourth quarter. The tight credit market will damp chances of a recovery for several quarters.”
Economists forecast spending would fall 0.2 percent, after a previously estimated no change in August, according to the median of 73 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from a 0.3 percent gain to a 1 percent drop.
Just opened up some listings I received this morning; still not too far from peak asking prices. Un-f*cking-believable.
Another great call by pret;
“Credit turmoil, costs and threat of a recession have left several Vancouver projects stranded or on hold”
http://www.financialpost.com/story.html?id=917523
#50 BC Bob: last year at this time he was in London putting real etstae deals together.
BC (47)-
We should call some Hungarian housewives and inform them that they are playing on the same court with the Masters of the Universe.
Mrs. Watanabe is dead. Long live Mrs. Goulash.
gary (49)-
Do what the pros do. Ignore them.
Of the total listings on market, my guys only focus on a fraction of them: the ones priced to actually sell. We don’t even bother e-mailing the rest to clients and don’t waste gas previewing or showing them.
Maybe I can get in on the ground floor in the Hungarian and Ukrainian foreclosure inventory management biz…
Does anybody know if the Ukraine is still contaminated from Chernobyl? Not worth risking my health there if it is.
Clot,
Yeah, I saw the problems they are having in the Middle East. Pretty funny they had all that oil money coming and they were still financing all that building with debt.
“#50 BC Bob: last year at this time he was in London putting real etstae deals together.”
This year he’s living above his parent’s garage putting legos together.
Clot [52],
I read that 90% of the mortgages in Hungary are denominated in SF. Does the TARP extend to Hungary?
#53 Clot: Good Idea ignoring the listings). I guess gary, and myself just do not undetstafnd why realtors continue to take these listings.
Surely you would think that most of them now know that 2005/06 has come and gone, and we are now almost in 2009, with a radically different landscape.
I guess gary, and myself just do not undetstafnd why realtors continue to take these listings.
You’ll be amazed at what you’ll eat if you are really hungry.
Clot,
Take SKF off your screen and replace it with the forint.
“The other problem is that many Hungarians have been borrowing money in foreign currencies to buy their homes, cars or even to support their businesses.”
“Those borrowings in euros, Swiss francs and even Japanese yen had the advantage that they were at much lower interest rates than those in Hungarian forints, and when the forint was a stable currency they looked very attractive.”
“But now that the forint is falling sharply the cost of repaying those loans is rising massively.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7693237.stm
“Does anybody know if the Ukraine is still contaminated from Chernobyl? Not worth risking my health there if it is.”
Clot,
No worries. The radon is worse in Hunterdon County.
Looks like the new plan is not a bailout for homeowners but rather for the banks holding the loans. Under the new plan banks do not have to markdowm the loan amount, only the monthly payment. We all know that if the mortgage amount itself is not reduced, many homedebters will default anyway. In that case taxpayers will take the hit because government is going to insure the loans.
From Bloomberg:
Deephaven Freezes Multistrategy Hedge Fund to Avoid Asset Sales
Deephaven Capital Management LLC, the hedge-fund unit of stockbroker Knight Capital Group Inc., froze a $1.6 billion fund after investors asked to get back 30 percent of their money.
Withdrawals from the Deephaven Global Multistrategy Fund were suspended so managers wouldn’t be forced to sell assets in falling stock and debt markets, the Minnetonka, Minnesota-based firm said yesterday in a letter to investors. Lenders and trading partners also imposed stricter financing requirements, according to the letter.
This plan should be good for another bump in bonuses to retain all the wonderful “talent”.
BTW, cousin house sale/purchase update:
1) They closed on the new house two days ago
2) The old house still doesn’t have an offer but they have someone coming back a 2nd time and they are (ahem..) very interested.
3) They have a set price that they will “accept” if an offer is made as they need to use that money to pay down the new house. Again, they need to “get” a certain amount.
I didn’t say a word when told all this yesterday.
This plan should be good for another bump in bonuses to retain all the wonderful “talent”.
Where, exactly, do they expect this talent to go?
And if that talent does leave, I’m sure there are 100 others, newly unemployed but just as talented, salivating to take the position… Probably for less money too.
HE (55)-
A junkie is a junkie, whether he’s rich or not.
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/10/comparing-stock-market-crashes.html
bottom of page -
“Where’s My Bailout?”
Because all Americans should be protected from their own stupidity.
#59 grim:You’ll be amazed at what you’ll eat if you are really hungry.
Except with those listing rpices you will continue to remain very hungry.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/60facd78-a6ec-11dd-95be-000077b07658.html
CME vs. ICE
gary (65)-
Watch the shock on their faces as the “interested” party takes a second look…then decides to sit on their hands until your cousin comes to them, begging for an offer.
I have a list of buyers a mile long. I also have their “wish list” homes on auto-search, so we can immediately track & notify when price changes happen.
You should’ve seen the responses when the Clodwell Bunco listings that reduced for their “sale of the century” repriced to their former, higher asking.
That “sale” probably ended up delaying the eventual disposition of those properties by 3-6 months, minimum. They are now stigmatized by the public perception that the owners are too stupid to warrant attempts to negotiate with them.
Realogy is toast.
Grim (31) -
“The next revolution will be the easiest one to fight.
Just stop paying our debt, and watch it all come down.”
- The problem with this is that it sucks not be in debt right now. I am sure that TPTB will decree that only debt which was acquired during, lets say, the last 2 years will be forgiven.
So, If you are a renter or a person who has already paid off your mortgage – get ready for the TRUE “Redistribution of Wealth”.
What’s the fastest way to rack up the cards, without attracting attention?
Can you charge a house purchase to double down on the debt destruction?
#5 Rich: Got your initial response. Thanks.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601170&refer=home&sid=aYJZOB_gZi0I
Wall Street’s Toxic Exports: Part 4 of 4
Can you imagine the outcry here, send your child to boarding school, 22K a year, to get dirty?
Why not send them to Iowa, learn how to cruise around on a John Deere?
“Oct. 31 (Bloomberg) — Growing food is on the curriculum at Leaden Hall private school for girls in southwest England, and students can thank the credit crisis.”
“Pupils are growing potatoes, tomatoes, runner beans and courgettes,” said Diana Watkins, the head teacher of the school of 231 students, including 40 boarders, in the town of Salisbury. Planting took place in the spring, crops are tended by children and staff, and “every patch of grass is being used,” Watkins said.
“There’s a sense of a tidal wave coming towards us,” said Anthony Seldon, the head of the college. “We don’t know if it is going to be a large one, an unpleasant one, or a massive one. We think many of our parents will be adversely affected. Some of them will be very significantly affected.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=auqam0SXjfvQ&refer=home
From MarketWatch:
U.S. Oct. UMich consumer sentiment 57.6 vs 57.5 expected
If the government is going to do major stimulus, I agree with the idea that they shouldn’t just hand out checks to be spent on $300 jeans this Christmas. Wouldn’t it be great if instead they spent the money on something like improved public transportation?
skep,
I say we build a New New York, ala Dubai.
Grind up the Poconos and Adirondacks and pour the fill into the Hudson, East River, and New York Bay.
We can do the same in JC, Hoboken, and Bayonne.
Waterfront condos for everyone!
“The HENRYS who make between $250K an $500K actually only on average make $287K a year and on average pay $57K in income taxes. ”
We should be so lucky to pay just $57k. Those numbers are way too low.
Chicago Purchasers Index way under consensus estimates. Came in lower than the lowest Bloomberg survey response.
From Bloomberg:
U.S. Chicago Purchasers Index Falls to Seven-Year Low
A measure of U.S. business activity dropped to the lowest level since the last recession in 2001 as gauges of production and new orders plummeted.
The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago said today its business index decreased to 37.8 this month from 56.7 in September. Fifty is the dividing line between growth and contraction. The index averaged 54.4 last year.
Businesses are paring production and investment plans as the biggest financial crisis since the Great Depression makes credit harder to get and discourages consumer spending. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News early this month forecast the economy would contract in the second half of the year.
“This is consistent with a pretty good-sized recession,” Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisors in Holland, Pennsylvania, said before the report. “What we’re debating now is when the recession began.”
The index was projected to fall to 48, according to the median forecast of 58 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Estimates ranged from 43.6 to 54.5.
And if that talent does leave, I’m sure there are 100 others, newly unemployed but just as talented, salivating to take the position… Probably for less money too.
Why are such bonuses being paid to the talent that lost billions of $$$ in the first place? Must be some talented decision makers there!
Are there enough buyers for Philadelphia’s upscale condos?
“Real estate broker Allan Domb is the so-called “Condo King of Philadelphia.” Right now, the king is hurting. His sales are off 25 percent to 40 percent this year compared with last year – mostly with $750,000-plus condos.
“It’s been challenging selling the units and closing them,” he said candidly. “Many buyers do not go through with their transactions because their situations have changed, and they view the economy as not as strong as two years ago.
“And by the way, they’re right.”
There is a clear link between the local housing market generally and a slowdown in the purchase of expensive Center City condos:
“A lot of those people buying over $1 million condos have to sell an existing home [usually in the suburbs], and that’s a problem for them,” Domb said. “They come and look, and say, ‘I will get back to you after I sell my home,’ and it doesn’t happen. You rarely hear from them again.”
http://www.philly.com/inquirer/business/homepage/20081031_Are_there_enough_buyers_for_Philadelphia_s_upscale_condos_.html
“Consumer confidence suffered its steepest monthly drop on record in October, a survey showed Friday, as the worst financial crisis in generations took its toll.”
So, of course, the Dow rises. Gimme a break. The outlook for consumer spending and exports is dreadful for the next year and we are supposed to buy into these rising valuations?
EXODUS..
From the Baltimore Business Journal.
(Note: You won’t read this in the Asbury Park Press)
BRAC upside to the down economy
More government workers than initially predicted are expected to come to Maryland during the next three years under the Pentagon’s base closure plan, due largely to a tighter job market, rising unemployment rates and plummeting pension values.
An estimated 8,200 jobs are being moved to Aberdeen Proving Ground by September 2011 under the federal Base Realignment and Closure plan, the majority of them from Fort Monmouth in northern New Jersey.
Initial estimates from the New Jersey base indicated about 20 percent, or 1,640, of the workers now in those jobs would elect to move, with the remainder planning to either resign or retire early. Now, as much as 42 percent, or 3,444, of those employees plan to move to APG, according to a recent survey of Fort Monmouth workers.
Because unlike Govt they fired all the biggest idiots already, plus the people already pegged for the next round of lay-offs are getting stiffed bonus time even if they are still employed on bonus day. Finally in financials most firms are just leased buildings and leased computer and some used office furniture. The stars get the clients, keep the clients and make the money. There ain’t many stars on the street but those 10% of employees that make it happen ain’t happy and walk you don’t have anything.
Hard Place Says:
October 31st, 2008 at 10:10 am
And if that talent does leave, I’m sure there are 100 others, newly unemployed but just as talented, salivating to take the position… Probably for less money too.
Why are such bonuses being paid to the talent that lost billions of $$$ in the first place? Must be some talented decision makers there!
That is correct. That is Federal taxes only. Of course in NJ you would have another 15K state and another 15K RE taxes.
Shore Guy Says:
October 31st, 2008 at 10:08 am
“The HENRYS who make between $250K an $500K actually only on average make $287K a year and on average pay $57K in income taxes. ”
We should be so lucky to pay just $57k. Those numbers are way too low
Mr. Doom Morgan: where is my cake baked in with 1500 pts of dow? however, you are absolutely right on absolute numbers.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJI#chart2:symbol=^dji;range=5d;compare=^gspc;indicator=volume;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
——-
bi Says:
October 25th, 2008 at 5:56 pm
540#, mark his words and check back next sunday. i wish all these big talk heads can publish their own brokerage accounts. by the way, i don’t pay any attention to them unless they put their own money to play. at this junction, i prefer what everybody’s warren said: when people have fear i am greed; when people are greed i have fear.
“I will have updated closing trade numbers on Sunday. If things deteriorate over the weekend, we could see a 2000-3000 point drop this week. I believe 10-15% is already baked into this cake. And yes . . . on my ship we get our cake, and get to eat it too. But not yet. Sit tight, be quiet, and go for a walk on the beach . . . because the sun rises in about 20 minutes and I will be on the beach for a long walk today.”
The stock market is a forward indicator. We can me in the midst of a huge recession and it can be going up.
Talent is important. BTW talk to any FS headhunter and they will tell you no matter what you do if you are good you can get a job in a second. There are tons of unemployed people who can’t get a job on the street but not if you are a rainmaker. In fact a headhunter friend was telling me he has a 7 figure job opened that a just ok guy currently has. The firm figures there is lots of talent opening up so they want to do secret interviews and if they can get someone better for same price or a little more they are going to trade up. That guy will lose his job. But hey if you had an ok short stop and Derrick Jeter opened up for the same price of course you would cut your current shortstop. Civil Service workers don’t have to worry about this stuff.
The Bank of England’s rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee is likely to slash its key lending rate by a full percentage point to 3.5% at its monthly policy meeting Thursday, Citigroup economist Michael Saunders said Friday in a weekly research note. Although the MPC has never cut by more than a half-point, the economic and financial crisis is “unusually severe,” Saunders said. “Under these conditions, the MPC probably will be ready to ease at an unprecedented pace unless worries about currency weakness and the ballooning fiscal deficit dominate.” Regardless of the outcome Thursday, the MPC is likely to cut the key rate from its current level of 4.5% to around 2% by mid-2009, he said.
Time to Pound the Pound – Maybe London this summer ain’t a bad vacation.
#34
“So according to this weeks Fortune mag the bottom 66% of taxpayers only pay $1,300 in income taxes each year. Is the taxes they pay really killing them?
The HENRYS who make between $250K an $500K actually only on average make $287K a year and on average pay $57K in income taxes.
So raising taxes on the people already paying 57K in income taxes and lowering taxes on those paying $1,300 in taxes will make it more fair?”
totally agree. I understand that lower income people can’t afford to pay more, but the suggestion that upper income people (esp upper wage earners) are not paying their fair share is ludicrous
“The stock market is a forward indicator”
- Then, why didn’t it see this huge mess coming? The stock market right now is nothing more than a gambling den.
Do you honestly think that companies are going to earn $90/share in the next year?
“Time to Pound the Pound”
John,
Thanks, it’s 20% off its high. Monday morning quarterback?
vic [92],
I’m praying that the hope, new world vision trade will get it back to 10,400-11,000.
Grim,
My company is hiring positions in Aberdeen for work that is being transferred there. Project managers and technical positions for Telecommunications work.
There are alot of jobs that are being relocated to MD from everywhere. Sorry to hear of NJs loss.
here is what I see the political reality being: gov’t has to bail out banks because otherwise banking system would totally collapse. massive moral hazard in this, but that is outweighed by the consequences of banking collapse (i.e., second great depression).
because people do not understand how vital a functioning banking system is, they view this as simply a bailout for “fatcats.” regrettably, this view is encouraged by the failure to put sufficient strings on the bailout money so far.
if the “fatcats” are getting bailed out, the average citizen expects to be bailed out too. this means bailing out homedebtors and sending checks in the mail to most everyone else on top of this. responsible people will be pissed but placated when they get their little tax cut/welfare check.
only a minority of voters will get really screwed on all levels because they rent and do not qualify for a tax cut / welfare check. they are too small of a group to matter politically.
#89 John: my head hunter friend on the street tells me the exact opposite.
And she has had intimate connections with all the major players on the street. 25 years in the business.
She tells me there may be opportunities by the end of next year, as many of the rainmakers will be starting their own firms,as they feel tarnished by their association with the big IB’s.
She feels the IB model in its present form is finished.
As far as the stock market being a forward indicator, yes that is true, but not that much forward.
The recession is just really starting to pick up stream, and the market cannot start looking forward until more of the carnage from the recession plays out.
I would not even consider the market as indicating a forward looking basis until the 3rd quarter of 2009 (minimum).
This so called rally of the last few days is simply a bull rally in a bear market.
I call it a hope rally in that they hope things won’t get that bad. Yet every piece of economic data released points to the exact opposite.
One will get cut off at the knees participating in a hope rally.
Aberdeen is north of Baltimore just incase your wondering. It nearly borders on Pennsylvania and Delaware.
http://maps.google.com/maps?hl=en&q=aberdeen+md&um=1&ie=UTF-8&sa=X&oi=geocode_result&resnum=1&ct=image
#71
“They are now stigmatized by the public perception that the owners are too stupid to warrant attempts to negotiate with them.”
I am contemplating visiting a newly listed open house this weekend in my neighborhood. It is massively overpriced (I think by about 30%). The only reason to go is to tell the agent as much. But the very fact that the asking price is so high indicates that it is probably pointless
The Reserve Primary Fund, the giant money market fund whose customers have been waiting more than six weeks for their cash, announced late Thursday night that it would begin mailing checks to shareholders on Friday — for half their original investment.
3b [97],
Can’t take credit for this one;
Sell and fold beats buy and hold.
“here is what I see the political reality being: gov’t has to bail out banks because otherwise banking system would totally collapse. massive moral hazard in this, but that is outweighed by the consequences of banking collapse (i.e., second great depression).”
- Government Intervention has never worked in History, why would it work now? Isn’t Japan enough of an example to not go this route?
AIG has sucked 122 Billion and is coming back for more. When does this stop? On top of that, banks are still paying dividends. I would think that if they are on the verge of collapse, dividends would be the last thing on their mind. Of course, collapse and bonuses go hand-in-hand.
Walked by Toll Bros sales office on Washington Street in Hoboken. It’s now closed. Did they move it or are they no longer killing emin Hoboken
I just discovered this new time machine. You open up a web browser. Type in http://www.gsmls.com and pick your favorite county and city. Zoom! You go back in time to 2005/2006. It’s amazing!
“Sell and fold beats buy and hold.”
- LOL! I am going to pin this up on my desk.
off to the phillies parade; hope i survive.
3B, IBs are soooooooo 2007 you really are dating yourself.
106
Don’t be this guy!
http://homerderby.com/archives/2588
#102
Vic– the question is what would happen if gov’t did not intervene. Japan had a crappy economy for more than a decade, but people were not starving and overall maintained a pretty high quality of life. If the Japanese gov’t had just let the chips fall, who knows what might have happended.
#102
agree with your point re: dividends, however
“Walked by Toll Bros sales office on Washington Street in Hoboken. It’s now closed.”
he,
Heard it was just for today. They could not afford to buy candy.
” The problem with this is that it sucks not be in debt right now ”
Dam straight! my better half an I both have 800+ FICO, we could have been sitting in a mil+ super-pad on tax payer dollars sipping crystal we bought on a CC waiting for a rebate check and tax break! But NOOOOO! we had to pay off ALL our debt and save for a down payment which wont be worth the paper it’s written on.
-end rant
Bc,
Seriously, the door was open and the entire place gutted. Must have moved it someplace else.
New source for those trying to keep up on bad biz news…
http://idiotinc.com/
“Japan had a crappy economy for more than a decade, but people were not starving and overall maintained a pretty high quality of life.”
skep,
One big difference. The Japanese had a huge surplus, the population was hard core savers. Comparing John Q, 2008 to Mr/Mrs Watanabe, 80′s/90′s, is akin to comparing Roseanne Barr to Giselle.
“Vic– the question is what would happen if gov’t did not intervene. Japan had a crappy economy for more than a decade, but people were not starving and overall maintained a pretty high quality of life. If the Japanese gov’t had just let the chips fall, who knows what might have happended.”
Had the Japanese not intervened, they would have had a moderate recession and their economy would have went gangbusters once it was over. Instead, they never went anywhere. It’s always worked this way. You clean out the weak and the strong take over. You build your economy on a sound foundation. You don’t prop up a house of cards.
he [113],
Not even a TARP?
Ohh more fun next week.
Depository Trust to Release Credit-Default Swaps Data (Update1)
By Shannon D. Harrington
Oct. 31 (Bloomberg) — Depository Trust & Clearing Corp., the operator of a central registry for the more than $47 trillion credit-default swaps market, will start releasing weekly data on the amount of trades linked to the top 1,000 companies and benchmark indexes.
DTCC will begin publishing the data on its Web site starting Nov. 4, the New York-based company said in a statement today. The company will publish both the gross and net amount of contracts used to hedge against losses or to speculate on the creditworthiness of companies, governments and other borrowers.
“When there is panic or near-panic conditions, that’s especially the case where greater transparency could provide some reassurance so that people don’t conjure up the worst-case scenario,” said Henry Hu, a law professor at the University of Texas in Austin who has pressed the need for a data warehouse spanning all privately negotiated derivatives markets to offer a better understanding of the risks.
Credit-default swap traders have come under increased scrutiny since Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. collapsed last month and the U.S. government was forced to rescue American International Group Inc., which faced bankruptcy after rating downgrades forced it to post more than $10 billion in collateral on credit swap trades that had plunged in value.
U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Christopher Cox and New York Insurance Superintendent Eric Dinallo have called for increased regulation of the swaps. Dinallo, in an interview that aired Oct. 26 on the CBS news show “60 Minutes,” called the market “legalized gambling.”
Fear-Mongering
DTCC earlier this month began releasing some information on trades in the registry to clear “misconceptions” about credit- default swaps following the bankruptcy of Lehman, among the market’s largest dealers.
After estimates from analysts that as much as $400 billion in credit swaps may have been tied to Lehman, raising concerns that hedge funds and others may struggle to make good on the bets, DTCC said only $5.2 billion had to be paid out from among the $72 billion of total contracts in the registry.
“The market would benefit from the information that DTCC has,” said Brian Yelvington, a strategist at fixed-income research firm CreditSights Inc. in New York. Had data on Lehman been released sooner, “there would not have been as much fear- mongering,” he said.
About 90 percent of credit-default swap trades are electronically matched and confirmed through DTCC, according to the company’s annual report, suggesting that most trades since the end of 2006 are recorded in the registry. DTCC has said it has backloaded “the vast majority” of outstanding trades into the registry, known as the Trade Information Warehouse.
Misguided Criticisms
DTCC is controlled by a board of members, including JPMorgan Chase & Co., Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and other dealers that created and control trading in the credit-default swap market. Trading exploded the past decade as the market went from being largely a tool for banks to hedge loans to a place where hedge funds, insurance companies and other asset managers could speculate on the creditworthiness of companies, governments and other borrowers including homeowners.
Criticisms leveled at the market are misguided, according to Robert Pickel, head of the International Swaps and Derivatives Association in New York, the industry group that sets standards for traders. The contracts are an effective tool to hedge against losses, and the losses that toppled firms such as AIG were triggered by the underlying loans, not the derivatives, he said.
“We do need to look at how more information, certainly to regulators if not to the general public, can be distributed,” Pickel said in an interview this week. “We certainly understand the interest now in having that more widely available, and the Trade Information Warehouse is probably the best source of that.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=asOll.eE8Jcc
Ben [116],
Exactly. They propped up the dead, let the parasites hang on. As a result they were stuck in 1st gear for over 20 years. By the way, at that time, we advised them to blow out the dead wood, their soultion would only prolong the agony. Funny, who’s advising us?
“The Reserve Primary Fund, the giant money market fund whose customers have been waiting more than six weeks for their cash, announced late Thursday night that it would begin mailing checks to shareholders on Friday for half their original investment”
Half? Half! HALF! Has our 3% haircut turned into a 50% haircut?
From CNBC:
Some Banks May Tell U.S. to Keep Bailout Cash
Talk about biting the hand that feeds you.
The American Bankers Association complained on Thursday that bankers around the country were “extremely upset” about how the Treasury Department was trying to offer them billions of dollars in fresh capital.
“These bankers believe they are being asked — in some cases pressured — to participate in a program they did not want and do not need,” wrote Edward L. Yingling, president of the American Bankers Association, in a blistering letter to the Treasury secretary, Henry M. Paulson Jr.
Saying he had “deep concerns with the lack of clarity about the program,” Mr. Yingling said the confusion had grown sharply this week over what the government’s purpose was.
…
But the focus on healthy banks has created baffling contradictions. Healthy banks have been reluctant to take the government money, in part because they feared being stigmatized as needy or vulnerable.
Mr. Paulson essentially strong-armed several of the country’s biggest banks into participating when he announced the program earlier this month.
To attract healthy banks into the program, Treasury officials also imposed as few restrictions as possible for those that received money. Banks could still keep paying dividends. They had only limited restrictions on executive bonuses and compensation. And the government would not force the banks to make loans they did not want to make.
But that only raised the question: why was the government trying to give those banks money in the first place?
…
Mr. Yingling said many healthy banks might want to take advantage of the Treasury’s offer, but not if they had to suspend dividends or accept restrictions on executive pay.
“It would make no sense for a well-capitalized bank with solid earnings to agree to a program which would greatly lower the value of its stock,” Mr. Yingling wrote.
re: #118 Grim in Mod.
link is here on DTCC –
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=asOll.eE8Jcc
If you know your FICO score you don’t really have good credit cause otherwise why would you even care.
Japan had a lousy standard of living in the 1990s, most lower level journey men I met lived in little tiny tiny one room apartments where they did not even have beds or toliet paper, they just rolled out little mats each night for their families and had their little water sprayers for their butts. They had long commutes at the crack of dawn and could only afford to eat lunch when the boss was not paying from a cheap cart and all it consisted of was a little bowl of soup, That was what they could afford after working 70 hours a week. In meetings they rank you by title and age. Some 60 year old guy who had the misfortune of being one title below me had to carry my bags and hail my cab, about the only thing he didn’t do was shake my thing in the mens room.
Any idea why banks are not lowering the price of homes they own?
The bank may have refinanced a house in 2005 to the max and foreclosure has now transfered ownership to the bank. Would they sell that trashed home now at 30% loss? If the bank sells the house at market value, they are taking a huge loss. If they don’t sell, they could keep the house on their books an seemingly are not affected by the reduction in value.
What are the accounting rules for the bank’s inventory of houses?
I guess that there are some rules about how long they can keep a house on their books without having to reduce its book value? Any accountant that could answer this?
Thanks.
From DealBreaker:
Layoffs Watch ’08: Citi
The Big C is said to be making cuts in convertible sales and trading this morning.
New head of audit at DTCC is from Merrill so I bet he will be an expert at setting up their CDS system.
re: #121 Apparently many banks are fine, the ones that need the cash are Paulson’s buddies.
This article explores the subject using a Fed paper to back it up.
http://www.russiatoday.com/Crisis/news/32611
Facts andMyths about the Financial
Crisis of 2008∗
V.V. Chari, Lawrence Christiano, and Patrick J. Kehoe
Working Paper 666
GM bailout before the election?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=adlnlYj3XS.U
Direct link to the Krugman piece:
Paul Krugman: When consumers capitulate
The long-feared capitulation of American consumers has arrived. According to Thursday’s GDP report, real consumer spending fell at an annual rate of 3.1 percent in the third quarter; real spending on durable goods (stuff like cars and TVs) fell at an annual rate of 14 percent.
To appreciate the significance of these numbers, you need to know that American consumers almost never cut spending. Consumer demand kept rising right through the 2001 recession; the last time it fell even for a single quarter was in 1991, and there hasn’t been a decline this steep since 1980, when the economy was suffering from a severe recession combined with double-digit inflation.
Also, these numbers are from the third quarter – the months of July, August, and September. So these data are basically telling us what happened before confidence collapsed after the fall of Lehman Brothers in mid-September, not to mention before the Dow plunged below 10,000. Nor do the data show the full effects of the sharp cutback in the availability of consumer credit, which is still under way.
So this looks like the beginning of a very big change in consumer behavior. And it couldn’t have come at a worse time.
It’s true that American consumers have long been living beyond their means. In the mid-1980s Americans saved about 10 percent of their income. Lately, however, the savings rate has generally been below 2 percent – sometimes it has even been negative – and consumer debt has risen to 98 percent of GDP, twice its level a quarter-century ago.
Some economists told us not to worry because Americans were offsetting their growing debt with the ever-rising values of their homes and stock portfolios. Somehow, though, we’re not hearing that argument much lately.
#128 Please, NO! This is cruel – let these zombies die! They have been dying for decades, let’s let them GO already!
Shore Previous 472 – Thanks again for the concern. No worries though, the CN masters are far from evil. And it seems like aside from Men’s Vogue and Portfolio, which will probably be blood baths, most of the 5% payroll cuts will be through eliminating open positions and attrition.
Don’t believe the rumors though. This is a very decent place to work. They pay me well, I can have a life outside the office, and the benefits are fairly generous. When they do lay people off – which is a rare occurrence here compared to Time Inc, which has done significant layoffs each year for the past 3 years – they even offer a pretty generous package.
That being said, this announcement shows how bad this recession is going to be. I was working here back in 2001, and the cuts back then were much less widespread.
As for buying some extra copies of The New Yorker, don’t worry so much about them. They survived the Great Depression. There are a few other of our titles that probably need your patronage a little more.
American attitude is basically like that of the UAW– longterm sustainability irrelevant, bleed the sucker dry while you have the chance. This is the attitude politicians will appeal to. As long as the 95% get a taste, they will acquiesce.
OT travel advice needed:
Going into the city tonight (ugh). Should I take the train in from New Brunswick (little over an hour to Penn Sta) or should I drive to The Path and take that in? What would be better on time?
BC – are you waiting for Dow at 10.5/11 b4 you short?
Clot #53
“Of the total listings on market, my guys only focus on a fraction of them: the ones priced to actually sell. We don’t even bother e-mailing the rest to clients and don’t waste gas previewing or showing them.”
Clot or others do you know of any agents in the south Boston (Scituate etc) area with a similar attitude? Is there a decent south shore Boston blog? I couldn’t see any really specific ones that come even come close to the utility of Grims- perhaps you need to franchise?
[134],
I’m short certain sectors at this time, lightly. I’m hoping it gets to that level, to get aggressively short. I’m looking for the hoopla, election, brand new day, etc.., for cash that is parked, short term treasuries, to move into the stock market.
Did Clot have a coronary today?
“UNC’s Hansbrough out; no timetable for return”
http://msn.foxsports.com/cbk/story/8739648/UNC‘s-Hansbrough-out;-no-timetable-for-return?MSNHPHMA
[132] skep,
Jeez, from my mind to your keyboard. Why can’t I say this as pithily and as concisely?
Bailouts: Not just for the US
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a2df9V.O__gc&refer=home
Gulf Citizens Beg for Bailout as Stock Rout Signals End of Boom
upside down auction for upside down equity
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/property/news/article.cfm?c_id=8&objectid=10540471
surprise surrrrprise……
read the first one, then go to the second one. Ya have to wonder.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/property/news/article.cfm?c_id=8&objectid=10539513
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10540550
the juxtaposition of the conde nast babes in times square amidst the fat, waddling tourists is kind of weird. it’s like when the NFL plays exhibition games in foreign countries: message is ‘look how awesome you could be.’
USA—the world mafia….sounds like a good movie title to me
Interesting piece out of Vegas..
Lowball appraisals are obstacle for new—home purchases
At a time the new-home market remains weak, lowball appraisals are giving homebuilders another stumbling block in any sales rebound, according to the Southern Nevada Home Builders Association.
Even buyers who are able to line up mortgages are finding that lenders are making them come up with a bigger down payment because appraisals are coming in lower than the home is selling for, says Monica Caruso, the association’s spokeswoman. Sales are falling through because of it, she says.
Even homes with upgraded amenities and features such as granite countertops are being unfairly downgraded, Caruso says.
“You have people who are working and struggling and saved 20 percent on a down payment on prices they thought were reasonable, but it is not enough, based on the appraisals,” Caruso says.
The problem is nationwide and driven by falling median prices because of foreclosures and short sales, Caruso says.
skep 141 – You think that’s weird, come on in for a visit in the CN Cafeteria. $30 million spent on a dining room for people who don’t eat. It is fun to watch people get plates piled with lettuce squirted with lemon juice.
We’re a cashless cafe and we use a debit account on our id cards. I innocently asked a coworker if they thought big brother would spy on what employees were eating by checking their card usage. From that day forward, my colleague has only used a guest card to pay for purchases.
kiwi (135)-
All I know about Boston is that I don’t like it.
Bad restaurants and ugly, pasty-faced women.
BC (137)-
Not to worry.
JPM undertaking a “significant mortgage modification program”. Will hold off on pushing any more loans into foreclosure until the program is in place.
Now WS is cancelling their X-Mas parties and designating those funds to the needy? Why not forego your bonuses and assist those that are staring down the barrel of foreclosure?
“As you know, in terms of the global economy, it now appears that the environment will remain challenging for the foreseeable future. In times like these, as difficult as it may seem for people in our industry, it is the charities and nonprofits that depend explicitly on donations, many from the financial services sector, that will come under the most pressure in the coming months.
To help ease that pressure, we have asked all divisions to forego their Firm-sponsored holiday parties this year and instead help us apply those designated funds toward helping those most in need.”
http://www.dealbreaker.com/
ooookkkk, I take that as a no.
clot #146
“All I know about Boston is that I don’t like it.
Bad restaurants and ugly, pasty-faced women.”
149—gotta disagree there….smart girls are hotter
Ever wonder why Mrs Wantanabe became a fx expert?
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_nSTO-vZpSgc/SQAN5Sk414I/AAAAAAAADm0/q8J0vQd_9CA/s1600-h/%24nikk-monthly.png
#144
Gator– you may not believe it, but I actually interviewed at GQ once upon a time when I was in college. Didn’t make it to the cafeteria but quickly realized that I didn’t have what it took to make it there in my Syms suit, sans trust fund. Had a good friend from college that worked at CN Traveler for several years as well. She never lacked for “diva” stories
“I can have a life outside the office,”
WHAT kind of freak are you? lol
I used to like reading traveler back in the day. It was what passed for a cheap vacation back in the ramen noodle days. Is it still around? It used to have wonderful photos.
Traveler is very much around.
Regarding the CN divas, you don’t find very many of them in unglamorous corporate departments.
From Bloomberg:
JPMorgan to Modify $110 Billion Mortgages Including WaMu Loans
JPMorgan Chase & Co., the largest U.S. bank by market value, plans to modify $110 billion of mortgages, including some of those made to Washington Mutual Inc. customers.
The bank won’t put any loans into foreclosure while it follows through on plans to open regional counseling centers during the next 90 days, the New York-based company said in a statement today.
“Even buyers who are able to line up mortgages are finding that lenders are making them come up with a bigger down payment because appraisals are coming in lower than the home is selling for,”
“Even buyers who are able to line up mortgages are finding that lenders are making them come up with a bigger down payment because appraisals are coming in lower than the home is selling for,”
If GM and the American Auto Industry go under all that is left is German Cars. The Japanese cars have no soul, just bland boxes. I had a toyota and it got me from point A to point B for a few years. As exciting as a NY City Bus ride.
Driving fresheman year in my 1967 Firebird Convt going 80mph on the meadowbook. Smoking them up big time in my 1969 Black Dukes of Hazard style Mopar on Austin Blvd outside of Speaks, catching a dune offroading in my Jeep Wrangler top down out in East Hampton and going airbone, heck my 1968 Blue Buick GS with a jacked rear end and G60s with a bright red posi sticking out with tinted windows was amazing, every light someone wanted to throw it down. On rethreads once I dragged a guy straight off the light on northern blvd by Leonards and around 110 MPH I finally smoked him. Even my wife’s Monster GMC Truck with 3 rows DVD playing is a thing of engineering. Don’t get me started on the 09 CTS V, that is a car. The Japanese cars are so so horrible boring. The car valet, the gas station attendent, the mechanic no one cares about a Jap car. German cars are pretty good the other BMW drivers check out my BMW and when I had my 450SL on the road this summer it was great to get to talk to 3-5 people about my car just while running errands. For that alone give GM 25 billion. Heck the thought of the day my friend got his first Corvette and same night we hit Spies and as we were pulling out he saw some girls and to impress them as he turned right he floored it. That damm tripple black t top vette was no match for a 23 year old guy, it smoked and fishtailed and we ended up backwards on route 110 right in front of a cop. Damm Cop and his partner were only like 30 and yelled out “what did you just get that thing?” The girls and cops were just laughing so hard that my friend just pullled away at 20 mph the whole way home without a ticket. Can a Camry match that?
#156 grim: Forcing me to bid lower and lower.
Grim,
In honor of halloween, please kill the phantoms above. I did a full virus scan, stinger, etc and I am not infected. It must be a quirk in the new IE.
Once upon a time an appraiser came and appraised the value of your house. In that far away time the actual value of a house may actually have been less than you paid. In that magical time buyers sometimes overpaid and real estate sometimes feel in value. A bank that required 20% down often wanted 20% of the actual value of the house based on the appraisal. It realy was a magical time.
#155
“Regarding the CN divas, you don’t find very many of them in unglamorous corporate departments.”
but when they open the wrong door… catfight?
““Even buyers who are able to line up mortgages are finding that lenders are making them come up with a bigger down payment because appraisals are coming in lower than the home is selling for,””
This would seem to be a big advantage for buyers, no? If one settles on a home at a price of $500,000 and one has a 20% downpayment of $100,000 and then the bank says, sorry, the house is only worth $450,000, the buyer now has a great bit of leverage. Either the seller drops the price to $450,000 to satisfy the lender or the buyer gets to walk away. If the seller drops the price, the buyer has now made a greater-than 20% downpayment.
#156
“The programs are aimed only at homeowners who “show a willingness to pay,” the bank said. “Customers should continue to make mortgage payments to reflect their intent to honor their commitments.””
preemptive measure to prevent walk-aways?
I have stopped looking at listings and no longer concern myself with asking prices and such.
With the economy in the state it is, and no job security, why would I saddle myself with a home and its associated expenses (taxes, maintenance etc.) ? Plus, I would not have the downpayment money available in case of a worst case scenario.
I can always downsize to a lower priced rental if things get really bad, or just pick up and move to a different area in the hopes of finding a job.
BC 148 – some are …
http://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/Deutsche+Bank+AG+(DB)+CEO+Waives+2008+Bonus/4074272.html
Now let’s see how our “little people’s” bonus’ fare…
“lettuce squirted with lemon juice”
Sounds like Guantanamo cuisine.
“lettuce squirted with lemon juice”
Sounds like Guantanamo cuisine.
Mens Vogue? Yea, what are the odds of THAT going under. Even men who give a hoot about their appearance, and whatnot, are going to spend time bothering with a title like that?
how long before NJ gets this headline?
SAN DIEGO, Oct 29 (Reuters) – The pension fund of San Diego, California, may have lost as much as $1 billion of its $5 billion in assets recently, potentially adding to the financial challenges weighing on the state’s second-largest city.
http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN2950274720081029
does anyone really think that pensions will survive this?
Hey John,
It looks like congress is about to use some of our money to spread the wealth and give others a little rubbie tub, or whatever you call it.
“does anyone really think that pensions will survive this?”
“does anyone really think that pensions will survive this?”
“does anyone really think that pensions will survive this?”
Only the ones for elected officials.
Happy Halloween everyone….
I’ve finally caught up on sleep after some brutal nights…
I don’t think I am gonna make it though all of yesterday’s posts…
alia — thank you… ER nurses are some of the grittiest people you’ll meet. It becomes like a war zone at times, even in the ‘burbs. Treat them humanely and life will be a whole lot easier.
sl
Why does Warren Buffett proclaim gold to be a terrible investment???
Is there a motive there?
I say that anyone who gets a mortgage write down also have to submit that on their taxes at the end of the year.
A windfall profit tax should be imposed on the amount that is written down. Instead of owing the mortgage company, you now owe the federal government. You should tax this “profit” at the same rate you would for lottery winnings.
PROBLEM SOLVED
Okay, since this is — nominally, at least — a RE blog, put on your prognosticatin’ hats: How big a haircut do folks heareabouts think housing prices will take?
How much will 2005′s .5million POS 3br cape cost in, say, November 2009?
How much will 2005′s $650k 2br shore condo cost in Nov 2009?
How much will 2005′s $1million McMansion in Cliffside Park cost in Nov 2009?
Tie breaker:
2005′s 499k UWS studio apartment, again, in Nov. 2009.
Winners announced 366 days from now.
The state governments should get thier cuts also.
Ket or others interested -
I can arrange for observers on a time limited, pre-arranged basis.
Anyone interested should know:
It will be on overnights only.
4 hr minimum commitment.
You will be assisting in a limited capacity.
You will be asked to sign a HIPAA agreement.
No one is approved until they are cleared by the nursing coordinator of the ER.
[Unofficially: If you throw up, you get sent home early.]
email grim to forward to me, if interested.
sl
Oh how I dreamed of being a Condé Nasty! I’d write some front-of-the-book item about vitamins or Scotch tape, being sure to mention my fabulous NYC apartment and those Louboutins I wore to some hotspot last night. The girl who tormented me in high school would be reading that magazine in a waiting room or hair salon and flip out when she’d learn I turned out far more fabulous than her.
Yes, I’d be fabulous – but miserable, trying to keep up with the other divas.
SL,
I’m in.
Oh how I dreamed of being a Condé Nasty! I’d write some front-of-the-book item about … Scotch tape
A piece on triboluminescent radiation in Vogue? I might have an idea about why you weren’t hired. Then again, I’m wearing an orange shirt today and needed to google Louboutin.
Now our bankers expect us to travel in their planes?
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2008-10/31/content_7161134.htm
william,
buffet is concerned about buffet, not joe sixpack. your take on gold depends on why you want it. As an investment along the lines of an etf, as a collectors item (coins), or as “insurance” against fiat currency issues. each one would have a different strategy
——————
SL
I am in as well, e-mailed grim
> PIAC Members,
> >
> Attached to this message is a letter to America from FPA.
> This full page ad
> will be running on Monday (11/03), the day before the general election
> in
> USA Today. It will reach about 3-million.
>
> > As you can see… many of the message points in this were derived from
> our last PIAC meeting where we discussed the possibility of a national
> message and what points FPA might adopt. You can see your own input
> reflected in the letter.
>
> > This was very much a crash project where we were up against a very
> tight production deadline, thus our last committee meeting served me
> well. I often feel like I don’t properly convey the value of our
> discussions… and this affords a rare chance to actually show you the
> benefit. This is what PIAC is all about.
>
> >
> Thanks for your help. It is, and always been, greatly appreciated.
> November 3, 2008
The Members and Staff of the Financial Planning Association
http://www.FPAforfinancialplanning.org
“Plan for the future because that’s where
you are going to spend the rest of your life.”
– Mark Twain
To All Americans:
Tomorrow, we will elect the 44th President of the United States during one of the most troubled economic periods
in our history.
One of the top priorities of our new administration and our new Congress will be to wrestle with the ongoing financial crisis. It may be global in scope, but its effect is tragically personal. Too many Americans are losing jobs, homes, retirement savings and quite simply – confidence in the future. Collectively and collaboratively, we need
bipartisan creativity and solutions to put Americans back on track.
The Financial Planning Association® (FPA®) represents more than 29,500 financial planning professionals who are dedicated to helping people come to terms with the crisis. We implore our next President and Congress to
take this unprecedented opportunity to immediately correct inherent problems in America’s antiquated financial services system, with a sharp focus on protecting and serving the best interests of the consumer first in all
financial advisory relationships.
Many people have lost faith in various sectors of the financial services industry. A recent study indicates that those with a financial plan feel more on track and confident with the focus of their future goals and dreams, even during market turmoil. Our members’ clients understand that objective and thorough professional financial planning serves as a road map through treacherous economic terrain.
Simply stated, we cannot invest our way out of the crisis, but we can plan our way through it.
Please consider the skills and knowledge of a competent and ethical financial planning professional who puts your best interests before their own. As your partner in financial planning for your family or your business, a financial planning professional can offer you objectivity and insight about all the financial decisions that affect your life goals.
To gain more insight on the value of financial planning and the resources offered by the Financial Planning Association, please go to http://www.FPAforfinancialplanning.org
clot,
because Italian food is just so good….
this one’s for you! :-)
http://fxcuisine.com/Default.asp?language=2&Display=84&resolution=high&page=1
sl
Note…
I have no idea what I just signed up for, but I’ll be damned if it doesn’t sound interesting.
Another bull market, treasury auctions;
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601009&sid=abaNJy3cvDv4&refer=bond
Comrade Nom, where do i report for re-education and indoctrination in support of the father land????
so we clearly will be nationalizing detriot. And those darn unintended consequences….. why dont we just go ahead and nationalize all american industry in support of the fatherland and the workers?
The Shipping News Suggests World Economy Is Toast.
Volvo Truck Orders Decline 99.63 percent; Auto Industry Faces Crash in US
If nobody is buying your trucks, you don’t need to rent a vessel to carry that shiny new 18-wheeler to its new owner. Hence the Baltic Dry Index, which tracks the cost of shipping goods and commodities, fell below 1,000 this week for the first time in six years.
Put another way, it is now almost 90 percent cheaper to ship goods over the oceans than it was at the beginning of the year. And because the huge vessels known as capesize ships can’t currently charge much more than their daily operating cost of about $6,000 per day, their captains have slowed down to economize on fuel and save money, to about 8.68 knots from 10.33 knots in July, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
It isn’t just the oceans that are emptying. Air freight traffic dropped 7.7 percent in September, according to the latest figures from the International Air Transport Association. That’s the steepest decline since the trade group began compiling the data in January 2003.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a7AhRhE4NJlM
grim,
not to worry….[almost] everyone has survived and left in one piece… with a healthier understanding of just what it is we do.
sl
I’ll try anything once, if there’s a possibility of throwing up.
OK, maybe not.
Observed a surgery once, One of the other observes passed out as soon as the surgeon made the first incision. Broke their nose when they collapsed and lost more blood then the surgery patient
“I’ll try anything once, if there’s a possibility of throwing up.”
Um… or being thrown up on? Or bled on or peed on [don't get any ideas clot/lost/john] or swung at, cursed at, raged at… I could go on and on.
sl
kettle,
As we discussed. Actually, I’m surprised it took this long for the topic to surface. Where does the madness end?
“Reporting from Washington — With defaults on credit card debt spiraling amid a global financial downturn, banks already reeling from the mortgage crisis are losing billions more from unpaid credit card bills.”
“Big banks have formed an unusual alliance with consumer advocates to urge the government to allow huge portions of credit card debt to be forgiven, a turnabout from recent years, when the banking industry lobbied strenuously to make it harder for consumers to erase their credit card debts in bankruptcy.”
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-creditcards31-2008oct31,0,4169068.story
SL
“or being thrown up on? Or bled on or peed on”
Already deal with that, although a 27 pound mini-kettle isnt quite the same as an angry drunk bleeding all over the place… ;)
..or shit on.
In residency, a fellow intern and I had to disempact [pull shit out of their butt] some guy…. she and I got sprayed when the enema that was in there finally uncorked.
Thank god she lived in the apts across the street. We were coved in shit to the shoes.
Went there, showered came back to the hospital in a dress — I never wore a dress in residency ever. And I had her shoes on while ours were drying after being scrubbed.
Sneaked back to the hospital with some cross eyed looks…
…we finally steeped in the realization of what the next 3 yrs were gonna be like…
when you are almost 90K in student loan debt, you’re stuck.
sl
ket,
body fluids of the blood/marriage related doesn’t count
I could’ve sworn that our kid was aiming at us…
sl
sl [197],
You’re sh*tting me?
ment is awaiting moderation.
October 31st, 2008 at 2:00 pm
“That is correct. That is Federal taxes only. Of course in NJ you would have another 15K state and another 15K RE taxes. ”
I was talking Federal taxes only. The number is too low, and must be skewed by folks who earn most from cap gains. Don’t even get me started on our total tax bill, including the various state, foreign, and RE taxes.
I have a friend who sees it as fully justified that he should pay nearly no federal income tax, that we should pay six figures, and he gets a “rebate.”
Mrs. Shore and I are not going to cry poverty, and we know we are in far bettr shape than most but, we still have to plan on how to pay for college and retirement, if we need a car or go on vacation, we need to give thought as to how to pay for it. The truely wealthy, need not, and they also have the means to hide money and income. We — and those like us, not the truely wealthy — are the turnips from which BO will squeeze the cash to pay for his soc-ial-ist agenda.
To paraphrase:
When they came for the ones earning more than $250k a year, I did not care because I did not earn that much.
The, when they came for the ones earning more than $100k a year, I did not care because I did not earn that much.
Folks, unless BO has a sudden conversion and turns into the great budget slasher, he will, of necissity, be coming to a wallet near you.
necessity, even
sl,
Just be thankful that you weren’t working at Merrill, last year, on the day bonuses were announced.
“showered came back to the hospital in a dress”
“showered came back to the hospital in a dress”
still_looking:
How the hell you been? I have been on the board lately looking for you, with no success. Give me a call on my cell later today.
“showered came back to the hospital in a dress”
SL,
You are male or female?
BC,
No. It’s real. To this day….after being board certified for almost a decade, I still have to disempact people.
You just can’t believe what I do. Glorious? Yeah.Right.
sl
Shore.
Last I checked, I am female.
sl
re: Wall St bonuses
Barney Frank is the latest to chime in.
“Any use of the these funds for any purpose other than lending — for bonuses, for severance pay, for dividends, for acquisitions of other institutions, etc. — is a violation of the terms of the Act,” he added.
http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE49U4J920081031
FYI, Frank’s “say-on-pay” bill passed overwhelmingly in the House in April 2007 but it has been stalled in the Senate.The bill would give shareholders some say over top executives’ pay packages. Might be different in the Senate for 2009.
Bob,
had way to much forex fun last night. made a lot, lost a lot and broke even in the end (what time did the sun rise?). Its better then gambling as at least we all know its rigged and you have better odds. ;)
could be addictive, it feeds the ADHD in me.
my first time in the OR was 18 years old (I was a perfusion, cardiac cath tech). So it was a cardiac op. All was going well, felt a little seedy as they quarterized the flesh. This was an aortic anerysm so they were going in between the ribs, so I am told to go around behind the surgeon to get a better look. Starts to spread the ribs, little more queezy. Grabs a huge pair of pliers and snips off the posterior of one rib, little more queezy. Find straw which resulted in a rapid retreat into the set up room and a barf was the bending back of that aforementioned rib and bending it up and back about 10 times to get it off the sterum. Well that is what it looked like to me anyway. However returned several mins later and never looked back. Still, amputations were never fun, just personalized that too much, trying to imagine what it must be like to go into surgery knowing that you were absolutely guaranteed to be coming out one limb less.
SL,
Just given the indignity of the moment you described and then describing going back to work in a dress, I figured I would ask.
kettle [210],
Welcome to the land of the cowboys.
All Hype,
Little brother… where the hell have YOU been??
It’s been a bad month, man…
…I will call you tonight.
sl
bob,
actually i was feeling balzy so i left an order open before going to work, did use a stop loss though even if it was on the large side….. the USDEUR was my friend and the JPYEUR kicked my butt.
The really funny thing is that there was a text based game in the 90′s where you were a drug dealer and bought/sold various drugs as rates actively fluctuated depending on new suppliers, drug busts, and corruption.
loved that game and was good at it!
Apparently i have been trading forex for over a decade!!!!
here it is…..
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drugwars
would download and play it again but forex is more fun
[178] Nick
In a way, that used to be the rule. If your debt waa cancelled, you realized “cancellation of indebteness income” which was taxable under Section 108 of the Internal Revenue Code.
This year, our Redistributive Congress and Dipsh1t in Chief relieved debtors of this tax consequence.
So I don’t think your idea has much traction.
Personally, I am always looking for ways to turn that to our advantage. We’ll see.
From Bloomberg:
Guggenheim Fund Seeks Up to $300 Million to Meet Margin Calls
Guggenheim Structured Real Estate Advisors LLC, the manager of commercial-mortgage funds set up five years ago by Ed Shugrue, asked investors in its second fund for as much as $300 million of new equity to meet margin calls.
Shugrue went to the Oregon Investment Council on Oct. 29 to ask for $100 million to supplement Guggenheim Structured Real Estate II, a $770 millon fund raised in 2006. The Oregon council, which invests the state’s $54 billion Public Employees Retirement Fund, approved the additional investment “subject to a few caveats,” said Ronald Schmitz, Oregon’s chief investment officer.
Slumping commercial-property debt prices are threatening more companies and funds after contributing to Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s record bankruptcy. Funds that borrowed money to own loans and bonds must sell devalued assets or raise equity to meet banks’ demands. Guggenheim needs cash by the end of November to meet margin calls from JPMorgan Chase & Co., Credit Suisse Group AG and Citigroup Inc., a person with knowledge of the fund-raising said.
“We are in the midst of a galactic de-leveraging of the entire system,” John Klopp, chief executive officer of commercial-mortgage investor Capital Trust Inc., said on an Oct. 29 conference call. “The result of that will be that many, many assets, including commercial real-estate assets, will end up being owned by somebody other than who owns them right now.”
[190] Comrade Kettle,
Was “Detriot” intentional? Should have been.
Reeducation will be self-imposed. Conservatives are being outed in the blogosphere and liberal bloggers are being urged to shun them, refuse to hire them, and fire them if they are employed. I predict that, like closet racism, having a conservative bent will be frowned upon, and even espousing conservative ideals about individual responsibility, smaller, efficient government, lower taxes, etc, will be met with raised eyebrows in some quarters.
Today, I went to the NJ MVC to register my cars in the PRoNJ. When I mentioned to the woman behind the first counter that I moved here, she asked “why?” When we started discussing O’s future regime change ideas, she looked around furtively, shushed me, and whispered that there were a lot of O supporters here and it would not do to be speaking critically of him. So, in a sense, criticism of O and liberalism will be punished in various ways, and will dissent will exist only on blogs and with talking heads who get paid to dissent and need not worry about being fired because of it (well, there is some threat there if your comment is too close to the third rails).
This is another reason I am rethinking sponsoring the Brigadoon GTG at my house. Folks here know me as a libertarian-conservative and free market advocate, not to mention a supporter of the 2nd amendment, which can get some NJers panties in a bunch. I am certain it got me in some hot water with prior employers, who fear that conservative ideals are incompatible with the diversity message they are trying to send. Call me paranoid if you like, but I have a lot to protect and I am well aware of the grief folks can cause you, in very legal ways, when they are motivated to do so because they object to your views or even your status. So I would prefer to keep my true i.d. from some of the kool-aid drinkers on this board, which would mean not telling them where I live. In retrospect, it was an ill-conceived idea on my part.
219………I would say no one with a brain really thinks there is a giant difference between what the two parties can accomplish…but I for one am sick of the epic failure of the GOP.
BC, wondering if you ended up going to the Wellmont. If so, how was it?
Nom,
You could always take it offline and keep it a cozy event if that was what you wanted.
and yes detriot was intentional
still interested in a road trip?
bob,
Where does the madness end?
we both know the answer to that, more or less.
Nom,
Does that include all debt or just mortgage related debt?
sl
Call this a crisis? Just wait
David Walker, former U.S. Comptroller General
Actually, don’t wait, because we’ve got to stop a bigger economic disaster in the making: 78 million baby-boomers eligible for Social Security and Medicare.
Staring into the abyss always focuses the mind, which can help you avoid falling in. So let’s take a look at the potential catastrophe that awaits us once we survive our current crisis. At the dawn of the 21st century the U.S. had $5.7 trillion in total debt. As we approach the end of George W. Bush’s presidency only eight years later, that sum has nearly doubled, thanks to war costs, tax cuts, spending increases, expanded entitlement programs, and now a welter of government bailouts and rescues.
This year was particularly bad. The federal budget deficit for fiscal 2008 hit $455 billion, up from $162 billion last year. That figure does not include the cost of the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008, which has an initial pricetag in the hundreds of billions of dollars. In fairness, some of that money presumably will come back to the Treasury, since the new rescue-related sums will be used to acquire preferred stock, mortgages, and other assets that someday could be sold at a profit.
Yet any such calculations are penny ante compared with the fiscal disaster that is bearing down on America. It’s no longer an event in the misty future. It officially began earlier this year when teacher Kathleen Casey-Kirschling of Maryland became the first baby-boom retiree to collect Social Security benefits. She will be followed by about 78 million more boomers over the next 17 years.
The entitlements due from Social Security and Medicare present us with that frightening abyss. The costs of these current programs, along with other health-care costs, could bankrupt our country. The abyss offers no assets, troubled or otherwise, to help us cross it. Yes, some have suggested less-than-revolutionary measures that could help. Among them: budget savings that would accrue from repealing the Bush-era tax cuts, ending the Iraq war, or expanding the economy after the current downturn runs its course. But even if the economy were to grow at the level of 3.2% a year, as it did in the 1990s, and these other savings were achieved, they wouldn’t come close to addressing our federal financial problem.
Nor can we be complacent about timing. The costs of these programs start to threaten our solvency in the next several years. The only way to get across the chasm is to begin making tough choices now to change our current course. Delay will make the problem worse. In fact, the deteriorating financial condition of our federal government in the face of skyrocketing health-care costs and the baby-boom retirement could fairly be described as a super-subprime crisis. It would certainly dwarf what we’re seeing now.
The U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO), noting that the federal balance sheet does not reflect the government’s huge unfunded promises in our nation’s social-insurance programs, estimated last year that the unfunded obligations for Medicare and Social Security alone totaled almost $41 trillion. That sum, equivalent to $352,000 per U.S. household, is the present-value shortfall between the growing cost of entitlements and the dedicated revenues intended to pay for them over the next 75 years.
Why call it a super-subprime crisis? Besides its gigantic scale, there are very disturbing similarities between the current mortgage-related crisis and our next potential disaster. First, like the securitized investment vehicles that blew up, federal programs were launched without adequately thinking through who would bear the ultimate cost and related risk. Just as originators of mortgages let themselves off the hook by unloading packages of dubious loans onto others, lawmakers have increased spending, expanded entitlement programs, and cut taxes while expecting future generations to pay the bill.
Second, just as a lack of transparency associated with mortgage-backed securities resulted in big surprises and large losses for investors, our nation’s huge off-balance-sheet obligations for Social Security and Medicare present a threat wrapped in camouflage. After all, the government’s “trust funds” don’t really provide much security since they don’t hold anything but more government debt.
Third, in the same way that private sector “risk management” executives failed to prevent the subprime mortgage crisis, overseers in Congress and the executive branch have turned a blind eye to costs associated with entitlement programs and tax cuts. While lax regulation of banks fed the current subprime crisis, a lack of statutory budget controls has led to a widening gap between the government’s revenues and costs.
At the heart of these problems is our leaders’ collective failure to act in the face of known challenges. Our country has veered from its founding principles, which held to individual responsibility and accountability today in order to create more opportunity tomorrow. When our constitution was written, the concepts of thrift and prudence were no less at the center of the American spirit than liberty and justice.
During past financial crises and wars, the government went into debt because our nation’s survival was at stake. What has changed is that piling up debt has become business as usual, even during times of prosperity. Today we are headed toward debt levels that far exceed the all-time record as a percentage of our economy. In fact, by 2040 we are projected to see debt as a percentage of our economy that is double the record set at the end of World War II. Based on GAO data, balancing the budget in 2040 could require us to cut federal spending by 60% or raise overall federal tax burdens to twice today’s levels.
Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security already account for more than 40% of the total federal budget. And their portion of the budget is expected to grow so fast that their cost, and the cost of servicing our debt, will soon crowd out vital programs, including research and development, critical infrastructure, education, and even national defense. The crisis we face is one of numbers and demographics but also of attitudes. Promises were made in an earlier time, when they seemed more affordable. Like homeowners borrowing against the value of their homes in the expectation that the values would go up forever, the American government borrowed against the future and assumed that the economy would grow fast enough to make that debt affordable.
But our national debt is not limitless, and our foreign lenders are not fools. If we persist on our current “do nothing” path, our future will be jeopardized. Americans need to reconcile the government we want with the taxes we’re willing to pay for it. True, attempts at reforming Medicare and Social Security have foundered in the past, and there may be some Americans who think that if the government can bail out the financial sector, it can bail out our entitlement programs. But the political difficulty of tackling these problems, hard as they are, has to be overcome this time.
The next President, working on a bipartisan basis with the Congress, must make sure that tough controls are put in place to get control of the budget, once economic conditions improve. (Example: We can require that all new spending programs, commitments, and tax cuts are paid for by comparable spending cuts or revenue increases in other parts of the budget.) We’ll need to make some tough decisions on which of the Bush tax cuts we can afford to keep, and resolve what to do about the alternative minimum tax.
These problems are not beyond our ability to master them. Social Security can be made sustainable and secure with some modest changes over time in retirement benefits, the retirement age, and the tax structure, as Republicans and Democrats did in the early 1980s. As for Medicare, there are a number of good ideas that would introduce more cost sharing for the wealthy, increased competition, better cost controls, more use of technology, and other steps to curb the growth of health-care spending.
I urge the government to set up a bipartisan commission that would begin working in early 2009. It should keep everything on the table – all entitlements, other spending, and tax programs – and make recommendations on both sides of the federal ledger. If we bring together the talent and expertise that abound in our great country, we can see our way through the current financial crisis and find solutions for the next one. From Washington we’ll need leadership rather than laggardship. The 78 million baby-boomers aren’t getting any younger.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/28/magazines/fortune/babyboomcrisis_walker.fortune/
kettle—if I’m going to be in the machine and learn how to play this game…what guide/book would you reccomend to look at? I want to invest but very conservatively…Don’t want to get rich…just stay safe….any help would be great.
[222] Kettle,
Detriot. I love it. Wonder how Devil’s Night turned out? I was explaining it, and Mischief Nacht to my au pair.
I thought about your suggestion previously though GTGs are never large and I did not want to appear too exclusive.
Regardless, I was going to make it an RSVP event since I wasn’t going to just post details on the board, and I would need some idea of headcount. Interested folks could email me with their online socks and I could reply with the location info.
So it could still work. I haven’t slammed the lid on the idea, but some recent exchanges gave me pause and there are a couple of folks out there that I just don’t want knowing who I am and where I live, and a couple of others whose on line personas seem responsible enough but I am a cautious guy when it comes to such risks. There is clearly an ethic of no outing on this board, but the only thing that keeps folks from breaching customs and obligations is the fear of being shunned and that doesn’t exist in the blogosphere.
And yes, still interested in a road trip.
Dink [224],
No, never made it. However, I plan to attend an event in the future.
I’m dressed up like a punk for Halloween today…lip/nose piercings…fake tattoos…spiked hair and all…..hilarious to see how people pre-judge me…it’s a very interesting social experiment.
Actually had a lady she got scared I was going to rob her—-I replied that men in suits are much more likely to rob you…..WIZZ RIGHT OVER HER HEAD…..she’s dozed for life
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601124&sid=apmaEKDvazoE&refer=home
Good news for 3b and BC Bob
Shore guy Mr. Commmie O ain’t going inflation adjust that 250K and like AMT which was once ment for the truly rich you too in a few years will be paying taxes out your wazoo to pay for WIIs and MJs for the boys in the hood.
william,
I know just enough about finance and investing to cause a lot of damage. I am the last person to be advising on that. I do have my opinions on general economic trends but that should not be construed as investment advise.
There are many other people on this blog who are light years ahead of me.
Unfortunately, i cannot think of any one text, my philosophy is based on my belief of where the system is headed, how its going there and why.
perhaps listen to t his guy (mike morgan)as a start.
http://tinyurl.com/6gheau
My opinion is similar to his. but as always take with a kilo of NaCl
kettle…thanx i’ll take a peak…
peek i mean :)
Good news for John:
http://www.wjactv.com/health/3293717/detail.html
William,
Also consider that at the point the market is at currently, and that if the general direction of thinks is indeed what many on this blog think, then now is probably not the time to be investing so much as focusing on wealth preservation.
The market at this point is little more then glorified gambling, given all the shenanigans going on.
As a JP Morgan Stock Holder, Bond Holder, bank account holder and a person who has their mortgage at JP Morgan it gives me great comfort to know the flippers and overextended homeowners are getting paid out not only via my taxes but through my stock dividends.
listening to a song now by the Kaiser Chiefs—-It’s saying– It’s cool to know nuthin…
Throwing good money after bad? Or is this the oh-so-savvy modified martingale?
From nj.com:
New Jersey invests $94M in struggling BlackRock fund
New Jersey today added $94 million in pension funds to its stake in a beleaguered BlackRock Inc. hedge fund, hoping to reap double-digit returns and to protect about $450 million already invested in the account.
The State Investment Council, the panel that oversees the state’s $71 billion pension fund, discussed the BlackRock deal during a special one-hour meeting this morning.
kettle—tx for the advice…I’ll just stick to my mattress for now
I wondered when this was gonna happen:
Apparently, in the aftermath of Chad Morrisette’s art project (an effigy of Sarah P hanging from a noose), two U of K undergrads hanged an effigy of O.
Complaints to police and the Secret Service about Morrisette’s Sarah P effigy got the “distasteful but not illegal” response (they did get a visit from the SS but nothing came of it).
The two undergrads at UK that hanged the O effigy were arrested and charged with disorderly conduct.
In the interest of full disclosure, I note that there are some dissimilarities that may have legal weight. For one thing, the P effigy was hanged on private property. Second, the events occurred in different states, which may have a bearing.
Ket. As I said previously, dissent will not be tolerated.
#233
““If it’s not associated with distress, then it’s probably not affecting a woman’s quality of life.””
until her hubby pulls a Spitzer…
#244
someone in my neighborhood just put up an equally distasteful holloween display involving Ms. P. It is sad that people forget that these candidates are human beings
Are the looming Alt-A resets in 2010-11 still as much a threat as ever, or will their impact be mitigated by the various resources that the government is working into the economy and the banking system?
[246] Skep,
true, but at least it won’t get you arrested for a crime. Actually, disorderly conduct is the least they can get charged with. Under current law, they can also be charged with a hate crime, and with threatening a candidate.
Nom– I think it makes sense for the secret service to keep an eye on people who put up threatening displays like this just in case they might be serious, but assuming they are not I think they should have the right to express themselves in whatever distasteful way that gets them off (whether referencing, P, O or the pope). They are also free to accept the scorn and ridicule from their neighbors as well
JPMorgan Chase & Co., the largest U.S. bank by market value, plans to modify $110 billion of mortgages, including some of those made to Washington Mutual Inc. customers.
110 Billions of mortgages sounds like a lot… Untill you realize that it is 2200 500K NJ homes.What some on this site consider starter homes. (how many houses in NJ are listed total??) Or it is 4400 houses at 250 or about 5000 houses at nations average. Weren’t thy talking about 3at least a million homes in Foreclosure??? I guess we need 200x modificatio program size…
Skep,
The authorities in ky don’t seem to agree. There have also been prosecutions lately of folks that have displayed nooses in their windows or on their cars. In fact, I can make the argument that the t-shirt I saw that read “rope. Tree. Journalist. Some assembly required” could easily get you arrested, particularly if the graphic were added or if you changed journalist to democrat. This is the state of the law, not just public opinion.
It remains to be seen if Brandenberg remains standing as this winds its way up the courts.
sl, I wonder if my new docs down here would do that as well. They should advertise for volunteers.
My daughter’s school got rid of ten paras and is now using us as volunteers. I get to teach after school science (evil genius laugh inserted).
I’d love it. My favorite ER experience is the time my daughter, then 2, needed to go. It was in Trenton, and there was one other patient waiting, big dude in an orange jump suit and cuffs. He entertained her and helped out a lot so they could work on her. Volunteers can be useful, if not cuffed.
3B,
I sent you the information you requested.
SL,
No way! You have my utmost respect for doing what you do.
I on the other hand may panic and say things like, “OH DAMN! That doesn’t look good!”. Which I’m sure isn’t reassuring to the patient.
Has there been talk of another GTG? I haven’t had the time to read that much as of late. I have to drop the axe on two team members this Wednesday.
Rich
Nom DePlume – some of the materials for the O effigy and were stolen, and one of those arrested wasn’t a student there.
If you built your own effigy with purchased materials, and hung it up on your own property there is little the police can do about it. I am sure there are hundreds of O Pumpkin heads around that will get kicked about there will be more than enough disordely persons in NYC at the parade and the bars dressed up as both candidates. What is stiking sensational here is the fact that it is a Red state Redneck school.
http://www.cnn.com/2008/CRIME/10/30/obama.effigy/index.html?eref=rss_crime
I will be at the Parade in NYC tonight, I will be sure to snap a few pics.
Nom DePlume – some of the materials for the O effigy and were stolen, and one of those arrested wasn’t a student there.
If you built your own effigy with purchased materials, and hung it up on your own property there is little the police can do about it. I am sure there are hundreds of O Pumpkin heads around that will get kicked about there will be more than enough disordely persons in NYC at the parade and the bars dressed up as both candidates. What is stiking sensational here is the fact that it is a Red state Redneck school.
I will be at the Parade in NYC tonight, I will be sure to snap a few pics of the disorderly.
Just got my Halloween present this afternoon: a second chance at some SKF/SRS in the ‘teens/low 20′s.
When the rug comes out from under this run, it’s gonna be nasty-plus.
Lots of folks whacked off at the knees.
Gotta run. Table of apples and razors waiting for me…:)
#253 Rich: Got it. Thanks.
Sean
I saw the theft fact. It is a separate charge. One doesn’t get charged with disorderly conduct for stealing. Was not aware 2nd perp wasn’t a student but fail to see relevance.
FWIW, if you hung an O effigy in your own yard, I submit it is still possible to charge you with a crime.
Further,and in light of the cases I saw, I have a bet with another attorney that it will be actionable to fly the confed flag in the future (Meaning you can be arrested or sued). Doesn’t frost my onions personally but what speech is next?
They moved up the ax at GS, heard Tuesday 10% of people gotta go.
Looks like Circuit City is finally going belly up;
http://gizmodo.com/5072782/sony-trucks-literally-turn-around-to-stop-circuit-city-shipments
Not really a surprise. I wonder if they’ll make to X-mas.
I am merely pointing out the sensationalism of this by CNN and other media. I sure there won’t be any coverage of the McCain and Palin effigies at the parade in NYC tonight.
The school was right to investigate who did this, were the chages necessary? Depends on whether they were drinking. If they were than disordely might apply.
Nom – I am merely pointing out the sensationalism of this by CNN and other media. I sure there won’t be any coverage of the M and VPILF effigies at the parade in NYC tonight.
The school was right to investigate who did this, were the chages necessary? Depends on whether they were drinking. If they were than disordely might apply, but since I don’t have any kind of legal experience other than my own numerouse runs in’s with College police in a Blue State I would say they overreacted.
“Gotta run. Table of apples and razors waiting for me…:)”
Clot,
Be careful out there. From BP;
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/haunted-house.jpg
254#, it would be interesting to hear how mike morgan spins this weekend to his paying followers. he was so certain that dow would be down over 1000 pts. but it ended up almost 1000 pts. for the week.
bi:
I was thinking the same thing about Mr. Morgan. Just as he predicts one of the roughest weeks ever, the VIX finishes 20 points down for the week. Perhaps he meant that the VIX would be volatile?
Clotpoll: I’ll begin averaging back in at 105, but not before. I’ve been in SRS for so damn long that I’m used to the traders destroying any semblance of rationale in the ETF. I’ve witnessed it drop into the 70s with absolutely no impetus too many times. Only way to minimize your risk with this one is to get in below 100 and even that is no guarantee. I’d take 105 now since so many more people know about it and because commercial RE must be at least 5% worse today than it was when I averaged in at 90 for my first and second big returns. The other reason is that I still strive for long-term gains in this puppy. I got ‘em last time around and that 15% difference is a huge one come tax time.
stu Says:
October 31st, 2008 at 5:30 pm
Clotpoll: I’ll begin averaging back in at 105, but not before. I’ve been in SRS for so damn long that I’m used to the traders destroying any semblance of rationale in the ETF.
stu: I am not familiar with the pricing model of the SRS, but any instrument with leverage is likely impacted by implied vol. It may be floating all over the place (especially in these markets). You may wish to review the pricing of the related puts and calls on all the components of the index as a fair guess of what may be happening (????wild stab by me).
Additionally, there may be many different influences on the pricing that may appear completely transparent to you. If you have the right inputs and are tracking them simultaneously, then any movement probably looks completely logical.
The ultimate caveat: If you are using an instrument and do not understand its pricing moves at any point in time, then you do not fully appreciate the risk you are taking. Is that reason to avoid investing in that instrument? No, not necessarily. However, when you cannot measure all your risk, then you leave yourself open to the unexpected (e.g., Black Swan).
If it is not clear, I have often considered implied vol a copout.
Life is a highway.
i know krugman is smarter than i’ll ever be, and he just won the nobel prize … but i disagree with his column in the NYT.
fiscal this, stimulus that … not gonna work. at this point, i feel bad for America. we’re screwed. people aren’t going to change and live below their means … and we no longer produce enough to survive on our own without being propped up by foreigners.
i have no answers … just fear.
al Qaeda endorses BO (whilst saying they don’t, but the message is clear). Enough said:
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE49T76620081030
DUBAI (Reuters) – An al Qaeda leader has called for President George W. Bush and the Republicans to be “humiliated,” without endorsing a party in the upcoming U.S. presidential election, according to an Internet video posting.
“O God, humiliate Bush and his party, O Lord of the Worlds, degrade and defy him,” Abu Yahya al-Libi said at the end of sermon marking the Muslim feast of Eid al-Fitr, in a video posted on the Internet.
snip
Yikes,
Building bridges, etc., is a great idea. We need them and at least the money does not leave for offshore, at least not right away.
Shore guy,
Did’nt Al Qaeda endorse M*cain last week and the M*cain camp said they did that so that we would do the opposite and elect who they really wanted,
KL
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V7VNhoEfxoY
Bajohn Mcbama
Rhyming,
I think it was di-ck cheney who endorsed Mc last week, but one may be excused for confusing the two.
So who’s going to the Loop? :)
lost, Chicago?
Shore
I doubt it.
“New Jersey invests $94M in struggling BlackRock fund”
Clotpoll, thanks for your contribution, it’s going to be a very good Christmas in my house.
Lost/Shore: I grabbed lunch today at the Filling Station in Red Bank (renovated Broad Street Deli). They had G-Rock on in the background. I guess they had a holiday mix on G-Rock……in succession:
It’s A Dead Man’s Party – Oingo Boingo
Theme From Pet Sematary – Ramones
Psycho Killer – Talking Heads
Nice!
Consumer Sentiment Report from Maryland
We were shocked, shocked tonight to find our place to be one of only two on a block of 15 that was decked out like John on Prom Night.
Tricked and Treated around a fairly mid/upper mid neighborhood – like the burb streets around Princeton or even Milltown. Two houses were fully tacky with fog machines, etc. But all the others were plain. Few people gave out candy.
The 27-yr. old Mom I was hanging with was truly surprised. She said that last year, almost every house blazed with lights and there were impromptu block parties.
“It’s got to be the economy. Things are really bad, you know,” she said. “They aren’t even springing for the 30 bucks for candy.”
She works for a non-profit in a fund raising position.
230 Nom – Is there a good local bar for a Brigadoon GTG? Nothing wrong with flying under the radar.
Nom: “Doesn’t frost my onions personally but what speech is next?”
You should be fine, if you don’t ever question Dear Leader. Just think what happens once the government has your medical records and you question Dear Leader.
“Niekamp didn’t know she just had checked on “Joe the Plumber,” ..Niekamp told The Dispatch she is unfamiliar with the practice of checking on the newly famous. “I’ve never done that before, I don’t know of anybody in my office who does that and I don’t remember anyone ever doing that,” she said today.
Democrat Gov. Ted Strickland and Jones-Kelley, both supporters of Democrat B O, have denied political motives in checking on Wurzelbacher. ”
http://www.dispatch.com/live/content/local_news/stories/2008/10/31/joe.html?sid=101
this is from the same article:
“State employee says she was ordered to check out Joe the Plumber”
“This is consistent with a pretty good-sized recession,”
I agree we are probably in recession, but it is hard to take it seriously from personal perspective. I got an email from HR today stating that we are starting a new employee referral program ($4k reward if you refer a new hire). 401k match has been raised to 8% and we have zillions in bank. We’ve hired 600 people in NY in the last 4 years (half are internal transfer from abroad) and we are still hiring (a lot of people from WS). If this is a recession, I can’t wait for the boom.
We just had a station switch to all Christmas music today in the Philadelphia market.
278 Chifi
I had Grock on right before I went to lunch. I heard Every Day is Halloween by Ministry and of course Bella Lugosi’s Dead from Bauhaus. Gotta love old stuff.
From the FDIC:
Fifth Third Bank Acquires All the Deposits of Freedom Bank, Bradenton, Florida
Freedom Bank, Bradenton, Florida, was closed today by the Commissioner of the Florida Office of Financial Regulation, and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) was named receiver. To protect the depositors, the FDIC entered into a purchase and assumption agreement with Fifth Third Bank, Grand Rapids, Michigan, to assume all of the deposits of Freedom Bank.
Hmm. Zogby is now reporting that MC is now having a lead of 48-47, first time in weeks. Other polls are also showing tight race.
MC is going to win. Polls are already oversampling dems (polls are assuming party ID gap of 7-8% for dems, while history and gallup’s general party ID pref says it is 3-4%) and O’s support in primaries was always vastly overestimated.
Frank (277)-
I both hope it is your last Christmas on earth and the last one in your house. You are a filthy parasite on the ass of a defunct welfare state.
Are you the Blackrock cafeteria barista?
chi (278)-
Used to always go to the Oingo Boingo “Day of the Dead” show when I lived out West.
Good times…
jamil (283)-
Are you in the business of making and distributing meth?
grim (286)-
Failure Friday! Halloween! And…a marriage of zombies.
Bonus!
Jamil probably works for the FDIC.
vic (292)-
No way. Everybody knows the FDIC is broke.
jamil-
You even suck on Halloween.
That’s hard to do.
Clot – But they are the only people who are hiring!
BTW, Bank Failure Friday has now been promoted to Country Failure Friday – Pakistan is being bailed out by the IMF.
Definite Halloween cutback in my little burg.
We gave out about a gazillion pieces of candy, while half my neighbors locked up and left.
We do an open house for friends & soccer folks every year. By 8 PM tonight, I couldn’t make it from my front door to my kitchen.
and by “zillions in the bank”, he probably meant “zillions of banks”.
vic (295)-
Great. I hear the IMF does a whiz-bang job of securing nuclear weapons in unstable Third World countries.
vic (297)-
He is probably posting from a bus station.
Clot: You got me. I’m selling meth from bus station. You are so smart! You must a realtor or something!
jamil (300)-
That could be the first post you’ve ever made here that doesn’t reference O.
You’re slipping.
296 Clot – Definitely scale backs in Montclair too. The “book house” is no more. There was a woman on Montclair Ave. who worked for Scholastic that used to give books out to the kids every year. Lil Gator used to get 3 new board books a year there. People would drive from all over town to that block. This year there was a mention on the watercooler that there would be no books due to “unforeseen circumstances”. We’re thinking layoff.
Luckily the Elvis house is still going strong. Although Lil Gator was more scared by that than he was the haunted houses.
301 Clot: “You’re slipping.”
Nobody is perfect.
Gator (302)-
That’s kinda sad. Hope she’s ok.
I grew up in Elvis’ hometown. Abject fear is the only appropriate response to anything Elvis.
Congratulations to your son. He is normal!
Clotpoll,
You are such a mean person, cheer up. Don’t worry be happy. May be you should go out and get laid.
Frank (305)-
Maybe you should go out and play in traffic.
Dude, you have lived in NJ for too long, go out enjoy life and learn to respect others.
Frank,
Shut the fcuk up and get to the mall. We need a 9:00 AM mall report. I’m sure you will be seving up bagels at that time.
By the way, you never answered my question; how is your hedge fund handling multi/cross leg arb strategies in an environment of deleveraging? Come to think of it, forget that one, just give us a mall report tomorrow.
http://www.dogpilesearchandrescue.com/?s_cid=OM347
If you don’t really care what search engine you use, why not try it?
Shore 169 – Nah, if you want to make these women feel like they are in Guantanamo, then you have to force feed them carbs.
“lettuce squirted with lemon juice”
Sounds like Guantanamo cuisine.
(307)-
This, from someone who brags about robbing NJ blind.
No respect for you. I really hope you are a barista or just a garden variety troll. At least we’d have the comfort of knowing you’re not a fully-weaponized idiot sociopath.
One other thought, forget about the bagels. Just serve up your run. I would luv to be your contra party.
Come to think of it, I finally get it. Are you Frank Kovacs; piti and an fx position in SF?
BC (312)-
Take a peek on Monday AM and see what Blackrock is serving up to its basic 2/20 victims.
Probably not dissimilar to Cramer’s booyah list.
BC (312)-
At least Hungarians play water polo well.
Clot,
I can’t get an answer from Frunk, spelled correctly, regarding his arb strategies in today’s environment? Then again, he is the only hedgie on the planet that embraced the short sale ban?
2/20? I’m moving to your office for a piece of this. How hard can it be; sell/fold vs. buy/hold. The greatest con game in the world. Except, of course, if you have $ with Paulson, that’s John not Hammerin.
[280] comrade running mate Gator
The Jolly Trolley seems like a good option and the closest thing to a real bar. Haven’t been in it yet, but it seems like the kind of place for this crowd.
That BlackRock dude Toll is such a Polyanna, always sees the sun and never the moon. These are the parasites who live on fees and we have even greater morons in the US who listen to him. He comes inthe AM on CNBC and spews all this optimistic forecasts. If you ever listened to him, you will have to wait for 200 years to make a decent return.
There are so many people who live in this world only on FEES.
freakin unbelievable
Summary
The global financial situation is complex and wreathed in fog, but at least two things are clear.
1. The financial crisis consists of fore-shocks before the main event.
2. A new geopolitical order will mark the solution of this crisis; it lies far in the distance.
This post examines the grim details of item #1. Click on number two for that post. There will be a long series of posts with good news on this site, but that time has not yet come. But it will.
Quakes on Wall Street precede those on Main Street
Financial markets (”Wall Street”) are a virtual reality, in which millions of people react to events — and the results seen instantaneously on screens around the world.
In the real world (”Main Street) events move much more slowly. People make decisions to hire and fire, to spend and to save, more slowly than decisions to buy or sell financial instruments. Plans are made for periods of months or even years, and decision-makers (whether in households or corporations) only slowly change their thinking. And the results of these decisions are only known after delays of weeks or months, and then often imperfectly through surveys.
The world is changing as deep subterranean forces move. The effects were felt first by the financial markets. The shock wave is just now hitting the real economy. I suspect it will be as large as that which has devastated so many financial markets.
Do financial shocks cause real world recessions?
Much of humanity’s reasoning consists of post hoc ergo propter hoc — the logical fallacy of belief that what comes first must cause what comes next. Since financial shocks tend to come first, they must cause the following economic shock. Sometimes, but not often. As we saw in the October 1987 stock market crash, which was a financial shock unrelated to any deeper event has little economic impact.
How large an economic quake should we expect?
Nobody knows, or can know. We do not have the necessary data; what we have is only moderately reliable and available after long lags. And the new world economy is too new, so that we do not yet understand its rhythms.
Also, this is the first downturn in the first global synchronized business cycle — that is, a cycle in which the majority of the world’s people participate. Thanks to globalization and the spread of market-based systems, both the emerging world (most of it) and the ex-communist block participated. Unlike previous cycles, everybody is slowing at the same time — there are no out-of-step locomotives to act as brakes.
My guess is that it will downturn will be long and deep. Perhaps -1% or even -2% sometime during 2009 or 2010. Global GDP has not gone negative since 1970 (there is not good global data before that). During the major slowdowns – 1975, 1982, 1991, and 2001 — it never dropped below 1%. Growth was unusally rapid during the recent expansion (almost an extraordinary 5%), and the downturn might be equally large.
That is what the crash in commodity prices suggests. Oil from almost $150 to the $60’s. The 60% crash in scrap steel prices (roughly $600 lbt to $250). Likewise copper and the other industrial minerals, most of which now trade at prices below their marginal cost of production.
The massive foreshocks in the financial system have further destabilized the global economy. Esp. the early October cardiac arrest of global financial system, which appears to have put an air bubble in the world’s bloodstream. For example, during the past few weeks shippers have had difficulty obtaining letters of credit — interrupting to some unknown degree the normal flows of trade. The collapse of the Baltic Freight Index tells the tale:
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI), the most closely watched measure of shipping costs for commodities, has plummeted more than 90% from its peak at 11,793 in May, caused by the sharp fall in demand for cargoes. The index tracking transport costs on international trade routes fell 47 points, or 4.1%, to 1,102 points on Friday, the 15th consecutive session of declines and its lowest level since September 2002. (source)
http://www.rgemonitor.com/us-monitor/254230/a_look_at_the_next_phase_of_the_financial_crisis
If this doesn’t represent a drop in prices, then I don’t know what does.
MLS#: 2594420
What are the realtor comments that the public can’t see Grim?
Sold 08/11/2005:
$712,500
Listed for $525K
318 Nom – I vote for the Jolley Trolley. Who needs the stress of home entertaining?
BTW – even though Stu and I have been pretty open about who we are supporting this political season, we have not discussed this with Lil Gator. After all, he’s only 3. Well clearly they have been talking about politics at school. Stu’s probably one of the most conservative parents at Lil Gator’s school (this is Essex County, after all) to give you an idea of the political leanings. Well a few days ago, I was reading one of the big new sites online and Lil Gator points to a picture and says “Is that Darack Ob*ama? I want to see Darack Ob*ama. He’s going to be president.” He even sat through the 30 minute campaign infomercial. When he saw BO on the television he wanted to watch it. He got very excited when he started talking about education because it sounded like “my school”. Yesterday he came up to Stu and said “I don’t like John McC*ain.” Then again, he also said yesterday “I made poopy mommy. A little poopy and a big poopy and they’re friends now.” I think he is turning into Little Stu.
BC Bob 32
Throw in a 30 pack of Keystone Light cans and you got yourself a deal…
BC Bob Says:
October 31st, 2008 at 8:23 am
“Perhaps the aid should be a free moving van and three-months rent at an apartment. That avoids the moral hazard and puts folks into something thay can afford.”
Shore;
Exactly. Free the prisoners. They signed up for a free call for one reason, price appreciation. The call has expired worthless, move on and start spending. We are losing our title as the world’s greatest spenders. Gotta get back to the top. One other thought, I’d even allow for a stop at the local store and include free lottery tickets for the year.
#260 toshiro
Looks like we won’t have to wait till Spring to get some shiny new toys.
I miss Booya Bob
Gator – My 6 yo loves O and my 4 yo taunts her with “I like M, I like M” to make her scream.
It amazing not only how much kids absorb, but how much they are able to raise the discourse.
Stu,
I’ve been watching 5 Upper Mountain for a bit.
MLS# 2584682
Purchased 10/13/2005 for $527,000
Listed in May of this year for $585,000. Price was cut to around $545,000 where it was temporarily withdrawn. Back up on the market at $529,900.
# grim Says:
October 31st, 2008 at 1:42 pm
Oh how I dreamed of being a Condé Nasty! I’d write some front-of-the-book item about … Scotch tape
A piece on triboluminescent radiation in Vogue? I might have an idea about why you weren’t hired. Then again, I’m wearing an orange shirt today and needed to google Louboutin.
I worked at one of these fancy-schmancy magazines for two years (ratio of women to men was something like 7:1) and the women would wear those shoes to work. naturally, i got my wife a pair (they cost slightly more than a 32 in flat screen) and she wore it to the wedding of her fanciest friend and everyone was all surprised. weird how shoes have that kind of an impact on women.
Grim – I think Stu is eager to find out what is wrong with that SO house so I stop nagging him to take a look at it :)
O is eliminating all video games and sending our kids off to war. Which is cool because if you don’t get dead, you get a free gun in the army. Then you can come back and shoot deer.
- rumors from my eight year old’s school
Comrade Nom Deplume Says:
October 31st, 2008 at 2:49 pm
[snip] “Folks here know me as a libertarian-conservative and free market advocate, not to mention a supporter of the 2nd amendment, which can get some NJers panties in a bunch. I am certain it got me in some hot water with prior employers, who fear that conservative ideals are incompatible with the diversity message they are trying to send. ”
There are many things you said I raised my eyebrows at, but this comment sticks out the most…
I’m curious as to WHY your employers knew of your “conservative ideals” and your “support for the 2nd amendment”, etc…
I think the answer to that question explains a lot…
329 Yikes – I am not important enough to get goodies from the fashion closets (nor would I fit into them), but my fave perk is the twice annual beauty sale held by one of our magazines. The magazine takes all the high end makeup, skin care and hair care products that it gets to review and shoot for publication and sells it all off for charity. A lot of it is super premium expensive stuff made by the best labels. All products sell for $2 an item. At the end of the day, the promotion is fill a whole bag for $5. Now picture 100 starved women wearing expensive stilettos crammed into an over heated conference room fighting over beauty product. I am totally out of my element and can usually only take about 10 minutes of it before I have to leave. I pick up a few nice items for myself (best buy a $200 flat iron for $2) and a bag full of stuff to give out to Lil Gator’s teachers – they love it.
The women in my office usually stay the entire morning. Then they come back and google the products they bought to see who got the best deals. I think the record was some sort of Japanese face powder that retailed for $300. I have been chided for buying perfectly good products worth $10 because they’re not as good a deal ($10 for $2 still seems pretty good to me).
These sales are the CN High Holidays.
http://www.suntimes.com/news/novak/1254890,CST-NWS-novak02.article
why bother voting…waste of time…..
334 –the electoral college can vote any way they want and their vote is what matters…perceived Democracy= U.S.
Does anyone know why would GSMLS drop like 500 listings in 2(ish) days?
I suppose they expired on the month’s last day, but I wonder….are sellers listed with an agent until exactly the last day of the month or are they listed for exactly 30-60-90-120 days from signed listing and so sellers are still listed with an agent, possibly, but their house is no longer on a (any) listing service?
Anyone?
Grim,
This week’s report from the Hinterlands…
GSMLS recorded 11 sales and 43 new listings in Hunterdon County this week. None of the completed sales were comp killers but there were 10 future comp killers among the new listings:
Hunterdon County FUTURE Comp Killers
MLS#: 2597109
59 NORMA RD
Bethlehem Twp
SLD: 08/20/04 $445,000
OLP: 10/31/08 $399,000
DOM: 1
MLS#: 2596980
1 KNOLL TAVERN RD
Delaware Twp
SLD: 06/09/06 $750,000
OLP: 10/31/08 $748,500
DOM: 1
MLS#: 2596616
312 Spruce Hills Drive
Delaware Twp
SLD: 05/26/05 $203,500
OLP: 10/30/08 $199,000
DOM: 2
MLS#: 2595469
277 ELLIS RD
Holland Twp
SLD: 05/09/06 $259,000
OLP: 10/25/08 $174,900
DOM: 7
MLS#: 2594621
511 SWIFT DR
Holland Twp
SLD: 09/01/06 $229,000
OLP: 10/25/08 $227,900
DOM: 7
MLS#: 2596749
18 STABLE LN
Raritan Twp
SLD: 10/29/04 $492,000
OLP: 10/30/08 $489,900
DOM: 2
MLS#: 2595963
1015 ROUTE 523
Readington Twp
SLD: 01/13/04 $410,000
OLP: 10/28/08 $339,000
DOM: 4
MLS#: 2596625
2307 S BRANCH DR
Readington Twp
SLD: 01/13/04 $412,000
OLP: 10/30/08 $409,999
DOM: 2
MLS#: 2596247
4 Forestdale Drive
Readington Twp
SLD: 07/07/05 $1,150,000
OLP: 10/28/08 $1,100,000
DOM: 4
MLS#: 2597169
3 Dairy Farm Lane
West Amwell Twp
SLD: 07/13/05 $795,000
OLP: 10/31/08 $695,000
DOM: 1
#280 chifi
Do you ever go to the soup man? I think it’s on Front or Broad st.
333 Gator
I’d like to send you a few bucks to fill a couple of bags for me. :)
Ouch. AP is reporting that the Messiah’s aunt (Kenyan citizen) is living in the US illegally, ignored deportation order, lives on welfare in public housing project in Boston and donated money to The Messiah.
Illegal campaign finance by illegal immigrant, probably voted too. Isn’t this a great country or what.
#337 beer,
Maybe those 10 listings are all clever agents trying to trigger bidding wars?
/ off sarcasm
is a messiah a bad thing?
Was at the Bridgewater mall yesterday. Not much going on besides the kids trick or treating. many stores had run out of candy before 5:30.
from websters—-definition of messiah—-”a professed or accepted leader of some hope or cause”
accepted being the key word here
#340 jamil
#
Illegal campaign finance by illegal immigrant, probably voted too. Isn’t this a great country
Do you have something you’d like to confess?
And yes it is, well at least was a great country.
I spotted a sign for a bank owned Mcmansion in wonderful Warren over by the chubb building.
The agent must have put the wrong sign up. Stuff like that can’t possibly happen in Northern Somerset County.
Maybe all the kids here went somewhere else to go trick or treat. We did not have a single visitor last night. Who wants chocolate?
I posted this late last night but we have touched the subject of kids and politics. This kid knows of where he speaks.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_rGLpMPuKCs
KL
Sorry Lost – we have 3 bags of our own. We took Lil Gator out and by the time we came back there were almost no kids out.
Regarding the bags o beauty products, I’ll let you know when the next sale is announced. Will probably be sometime in the Spring.
“Ouch. AP is reporting that the Messiah’s aunt (Kenyan citizen) is living in the US illegally, ignored deportation order, lives on welfare in public housing project in Boston and donated money to The Messiah”
–And REALLY why is this important? This is a detail….Look at the big picture and realize that…why does it really matter who gives him money if he can fix this broken country??
Do you really think because he takes money from an unnamed source…that that source is some sort of Muslim overthrow of the Government??
That would never happen—this is all propaganda by the right wing radicals
Another South Orange Comp Killer:
This one is in the Upper Wyoming Section:
GSMLS 2521601
LP: $599,900
OLP: $763,500
DOM: 158
2008 Tax Assessment: $728,500
Sold 3/14/06 $785,000
In NJ how many days does the landlord have to return your security deposit once you move out?
william: which laws can be broken and by who? Can you give a list? At least this is more relevant that SP’s daughter’s love life.
This is a federal crime (2 U.S.C. § 441e.), involving a candidate (and his relative). O’s campaign has received plenty of money illegally (ie from Gaza and big donors making many small donations exceeding the limits). I agree that this law (CFR) is stupid, but it is the law, and I would hope that presidential candidates obey the law. Clearly, this is not the case.
#353
I think I found my answer
http://www.rentlaw.com/dep/njreturndeposit.htm
Jamil,
You are beginning to sound more and more like a sore loser. But go ahead and tell me again how great of a choice that SP decision was.
I saw your post the other day where you said that M will win and is closing the gap. This prompted me to look at the Gallup poll where O has built his greatest lead since the start of the campaign. I then looked at the polls of all polls and the only ones that are even remotely close are from Foxnews and Zogby. If I were a betting man, I would be all in on the wealth distributor.
355—you answered your own question by saying you agree it is ridiculous—–Just because something is written down who says it is a law? A man just like you or I…Except that person uses that law to run his/her agenda…
It’s all details…all fluff…all non-important..designed to get people to look at the real truth…a diversion
The real issue is turning this thing around and throwing a crowbar into the cogs of this tyrranical machine in which we live…..So we can all have our country back…”We The People” has been lost…we need to find it
just my opinion
358— i meant look away from the real truth there
SP’s daughter didn’t break any laws Jamil. It is a case where one must judge the potential leadership capability of SP in preaching abstinence to her constituents when a member of her own immediate family doesn’t practice it. If you can’t lead your own family successfully, how can you be expected to lead this country?
stu: Picking SP was the only wise decision by MC. Without SP, O would have double-digit lead. She gave MC major boost in polls and she is in many places getting bigger crowds than O. You think Ridge would have inspired? It is a miracle that R candidate still has a chance, with massive media bias, (illegal) campaign money edge and general dem edge.
Yeah, polls look bad (but Gallup daily had O up by 2, and Zogby daily had MC leading by one – I think they usually release the 3-day tracking polls). I’m afraid MC is going to do Nixon’s..Admit defeat even if voter fraud was obvious, for the sake of the country (Kennedy’s voter fraud in IL – by the mob- is hardly news).
Jamil,
Enjoy the next eight years!
jamil—361—-you really don’t believe what you wrote here do you? please say its just a little Saturday morning funny…..
jamil—-Do you believe Noah got all the terrestrial animals on the ark?
SP killed MC
Jamil,
I respectfully disagree. M picked an unqualified and unvetted SP to desperately try to steal the dissappointed Hillary supporters. Surprisingly, it was working until most people realized that SP was not much more than your ordinary hockey mom.
The whole move came off with the perception of M as a male chauvinist. Maverick yes! Many label Chavez a maverick as well.
He’s all Mavericky!!….Thank you so much Saturday Night Live
stu: You can’t be serious. SP’s executive experience and track record surely make her at least as qualified as O, who has never run anything in his life, and his judgment (Wright, Ayers, Khalid, “surge cannot work”) can be be questioned.
R party base didn’t trust MC but SP re-energized it (pro-abortion Ridge or Lieberman pick would have destroyed MC instantly). This was the main reason for MC picking her. I know SP is not popular among latte liberals in blue states, but they would not for R anyway.
This is a bad year for R, but MC still has a chance (and mainly because of SP).
Where did all the funny trolls go?
William,
FYI, Jamil really does believes the stuff he writes. I’m sure his internet routine consists of visiting Drudge, confirmation of Drudge sources by visiting NewsMax, then a visit to FreeRepublic to confirm bias and develop talking points. At that point he is all frothed up and ready to post on this site and I’m sure others with his newfound “knowledge”.
As Clotpoll so elegantly puts it, “Jamil sucks.”
370—well i agree with clot then….although not on some things…definitely that.
As kettle posted in here the other day it is rare that human beings can truly grasp logical concepts…that is why they are so good at being shepharded around by the people who do understand a higher plane of thought.
vic –
I know, I feel like pulling my hair out.
vic and lisoosh—-u guys are buzzkills on this post
u both remind me of the 2 old guys in the balcony of the muppets show…grumpy and set in their ways
u both have no concept of discussing anything other than what you deem important–elitists
BC Bob,
Thanks for your contribution to my bonus pool. Do you have an opinion on the new 2009 S class? my wife really wants it.
“Isn’t this a great country or what.”
Jamil, this is the greatest country on the planet, if you have a problem with with us, move to Kenya and take 0bama’s aunt’s place.
BC,
No mall report this weekend, I am off to the Mercedes dealer trying to figure out how to spend my big bonus, thanks to the NJ Pension plan investment.
Frank -
What are your views on the way Porsche killed the hedge funds?
NJREREPORT prep question # 1
Frank:Hedge Fund as
A) Bi:Einstein
B) Jamil:Liberal
C) Clotpoll:Optimist
D) ChiFi:Technical Analyst
E) All of the above
Frank,
I think your wife really liked the leather in my BMW.
Sybarite,
Only a jerk0ff like you would post something like this. No wonder NJ has jack@ass reputation.
Frank
You can get a nice Matchbox or Hot Wheels Mercedes for $1.19 at most grocery stores.
324/327 – Kids sure love the Big O, and the feeling is mutual.
http://yeswecanholdbabies.wordpress.com/
I try not to visit too often, since every time I go I get a pregnancy scare.
Frank,
NJ also invested $180 million in Lehman. How did that work out?
stu Says:
November 1st, 2008 at 10:24 am
“Jamil,
You are beginning to sound more and more like a sore loser…..”
after tuesday, we are all going to be either losers or winners, it’s just that some of us will know it, and some won’t.
(373) william
Vic – lisoosh – buzzkills?
Why don’t you watch what you are saying…
386—could you elaborate on that statement just a bit….?
cindy—I am entitled to an opinion
cidy—you may agree or disagree with me…then maybe discount my opinion and I’ll take it back…I’ve just seen them make a lot of posts where they don’t believe in free thinking over the past 2 days
cindy i mean
Frank,
Hedge funds are not paid bonuses. They receive a management fee and performance fess. Unless you are John Paulson, your hedge fund, [yeah right], is probably down on the year. After all you are bullish, right? What’s your fund’s high water mark. Don’t spend all day on google.
By the way, here is your Mercedes, available at your mall;
http://shop.mobileation.com/Mercedes-SL-Pedal-Car-by-Toys-Toys
william – Some of us are trying to respect our host’s edict that we not inundate this space with our personal political preferences.
William -
Thank you for terming me as elite. Also, for bunching me with Lisoosh. She is one of the wittiest and most incisive posters around (whereas I can barely string a sentence together).
(393)william – Some of us are trying to respect our host’s edict that we not inundate this space with our personal political preferences.
I don’t think voicing my opinion is disrespectful…I just made an observation
Gator/Stu:
MLS# 2594420
Short Sale + Existing Lease
Agent Comments: subject to 3rd party approval, Tenant has lease till Aug 09, $3300 mo and has right to stay
Does anyone know why would GSMLS drop like 500 listings in 2(ish) days?
Expirations
I mean if you want a blog where everyone thinks alike —wow that would be not only dangerous, but really just a waste of time
that’s why I don’t like when lishoosh threw around the troll reference, because it wasn’t a topic she wanted to talk about..so automatically people are trolls….because their thought process is not in tune with hers….
I can’t wait until election day. At this point I don’t care who wins, I’ll just be happy to not have to read about it anymore.
Stop interrupting the collapse of the real estate market and recession with this political chatter.
Whoever wins is screwed anyway, his/her political party will be tarnished/associated with recession for the next 50 years.
You’d be better off voting for the other guy.
Or writing in ‘grim’
lets refocus, shall we? how long before we see this in the US?
British house prices fall by more than average annual pay
House prices have fallen in the past 12 months by more than the average Briton earns in a year, new figures show. The average home is now valued at £27,000 less than in October last year, while the national average salary is about £25,000. House prices fell by 1.4 per cent in October, pushing the annual decline to 14.6 per cent, figures from Nationwide show. This is the biggest annual fall since comparable records began in 1991 and the number of home sales looks likely to fall to the lowest level since 1974.euros and Swiss francs. Now banks are curtailing the loans as investors pull money out of eastern Europe’s developing markets and local currencies plunge.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/property_and_mortgages/article5051815.ece
I was going to write in my dog Trixie..but I’ll do Grim instead
i’ll shut up now sorry….
vic – Wow, though I’m not sure I deserve such a complement. Right back at ya too.
william – Ever been at a party where a group is standing chatting pleasantly then some guy comes up and makes an inappropriate joke and then everybody else goes silent?
That guy is you.
jamil is the guy who starts arguing with you about the premis of the joke.
In the meantime, the crowd has moved 20 feet away.
that’s usually because you are not interested in what we are discussing—therefore you have the freedom to walk but not call me a troll
how much will dubai’s “worlds tallest” building, the BurjDubai go for as steel scrap?
ket – what has been so interesting is that the crash started here in the US much earlier, but the correction is happening much more quickly in the UK.
Probably partly a function of the size of the county, but I would also throw out that Brits have a more fatalistic mentality than Americans and thus capitulation and acceptance happen much more rapidly.
will dubai become the global symbol of real estate and financial excess 50 years from now
I can take Frank much more that I can take William. Least valuable player right now
lossoh,
their banks are also in much deeper doodoo.
player? odd comment
well off to gamble in forex, cheers all :)
Actually william I didn’t call you a troll. Nor did I post much more than once or twice in the last couple of days as I was very busy with work.
And if I had, freedom of speech would have given me that right too.
And now, out of respect for my host. I am done with this exchange.
hmmmmm…i see now…im feeling a stepford feel….well off to a more open minded blog….
actually i will salute kettle because he has knowledge on MANY subjects!
kettle, shore, 3b, clot, SAS…all brilliant posters..
many others very closed minded…g’day
ket – Lloyds seems to be on reasonably solid ground. Not long ago the subject of derision for being plain vanilla, now King of the Hill.
#408 lishoosh
I thought the UK did mostly short term arms and variable(the rate can change month to month) rates.
#400 grim
I’m with you. Will enjoy going back to re blog with some overall economy stuff tossed in.
Someone doesn’t realize it’s not 2006.
http://www.realtor.com/search/listingdetail.aspx?loc=New+Providence%2cNJ&mxp=500000&sid=ecc88bedd4b943b5bb8ffc98b82edd2f&lid=1102407383&lsn=1&srcnt=14
This is a 2 bdr 2.bth.
There’s a 3 bdr 3.5 bth in the same development for 20k less been sitting out there for a few months.
bairen – variable rate mortgages there. They have this weird system where it’s insurance/you get money back, I honestly haven’t looked at it closely enough to understand it properly. Not the standard 30 year fixed like here though.
Interest only was popular there for longer too, as was shared ownership and other strange permutations.
Also, private ownership does not really have a big tax advantage there but INVESTMENT does – the Buy-to-Let (rent) crowd really drove sales. Everybody and his mother got into real estate.
So an interesting market, and quite different to here.
#420 lishoosh
That’s how Australia was too. There was some kind of tax advantage for buying-to-let at a loss. Perhaps Australia will imitate the UK UK’s housing pattern? Not much going on in Australia besides commodities and finance.
[332] spam
You make me sound postal. Thanks a lot.
But, in fairness, and after the fact, I realized that my prose could have been better and had come out wrong—Fact is, I know better than to profess 2AD support at work as that is career suicide.
Rather, I got the occasional thumbscrews simply for not drinking enough of the kool-aid. Simple as that.
[324] Gator,
Truthfully, I don’t mind the entertaining, but if the screeds on the board are gonna carry over, I can see where it would be very easy for some disgruntled lefty to make my life tough. Ours is becoming an increasingly polarized society and I have seen quite a lot of this bile come from the left. I’m too old to put principle ahead of practicality, so, regardless of what spam thinks, I try to avoid controversy, and do what Berke Breathed suggested when he was asked why he never addressed race in “Bloom County”. He said, you can’t without igniting a flame session, so when the subject comes up, just smile, say that you love everyone equally, and slowly back out of the room.
********
The kids story was funny. My daughter will sometimes bait me by cheering for the Yankees (knowing it will get a dirty look from daddy).
On the political scene, she got on my lap and asked me “what’s a socia1ist”? This was made all the worse because we were sharing a beachhouse at the time with liberal democrat friends of ours, and I got the dirty look from them.
“recession for the next 50 years”??
Grim,
Since you are so negative about this country, does it mean you are moving back to Poland soon?
Grim,
Are you Polish?
I just got back from two weeks in Wroclaw and Krakow.
396 Grim – That’s kinda interesting. Stu thought that house would move right away at that price, but now I am thinking not so much. No way any owner could break even on that lease even if they put 20% down. This one is going to sit and go for less.
Frank,
I think he meant the recession would not be forgotten about for the next 50 years.
I agree, and feel sorry for the next canidate as the last 8 years will be forgotten about in the next 2
KL
http://seekingalpha.com/article/103202-the-shallowest-generation?source=email
“The Shallowest Generation”
James Quinn – Seeking Alpha
A scathing article on the Boomers.
Okay, okay..I know I am a baby Boomer and this report is pretty grim. My goal is to be part of the solution and not part of the problem… a sampling…
“Baby Boomers had the time, power, and ability to change our course.”
“Meddling, tinkering, and non-enforcement of rules by Congress and other government bureaucracies caused the crisis that they are reacting to. Government creates the problems and then assumes even more power over our lives with their ridiculous “solutions.”
“We must move beyond crisis management approaches and start to address some of the key fiscal and other challenges facing this country if we want our future to be better than our past.”
“The baby Boom generation has one last chance to change the course of U.S. history, keep us from wrecking in a storm of debt on the approaching jagged reef and shed the title of “Shallowest Generation.”
Grim – I’m in moderation @ 428 -
It is an article title “The Shallowest Generation” by James Quinn – Seeking Alpha.
“The Baby Boom generation has one last chance to change the course of U.S.history, keep us from wrecking in a storm of debt on the approaching jagged reef and shed the title of “Shallowest Generation.”
There are some political references that must have shot it into moderation. – Sorry.
After reading this 9-page article, I feel ashamed to be part of a generation that has so obviously made so many errors…
http://www.funnyordie.com/videos/cbabb3addc/bailout-rejected-please-help-the-rich-from-fod-team
For Jamil.
http://tinyurl.com/5m4mzm
This is sooo Philly:
“”It was hardly on the scale of a wardrobe malfunction, but Chase Utley’s dropping of the F-bomb on live TV and radio yesterday caused a stir among some Philadelphians. After proclaiming “World champions!” at the Phillies’ celebration at Citizens Bank Park, the smiling second baseman leaned into the microphone and inserted a familiar two-syllable profanity between “world” and “champions.” The crowd loved it, erupting into cheers for several minutes.”
Nom 423 – Completely understandable about being reluctant to have people you have never met in the house. I would definitely go for the Jolley Trolley meetup before deciding if you want folks in your home.
Now that you have been to the DMV, have you received your official NJ Welcome Pack? You should be getting your Springsteen CD, package of Taylor Pork Roll and instructions on where to direct deposit the majority of your paycheck shortly.
We are having a lovely post Halloween afternoon. Just sitting here watching the Florida-Georgia game with Lil Gator and the dog. Lil Gator is really starting to like to sat “Tim Tebow Touchdown”. I think we are going to have to put a 15 on the back of his jersey. Tomorrow is one last hayride and apple picking for the season.
nom – if you haven’t seen this during the celebration/riot.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SLahE5XnVmI
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/The-end-of-deflationary-trade-KWREY?OpenDocument&src=sph
The end of deflationary trade
Yesterday the Baltic Dry freight rate index fell below 1000 for the first time in six years and last night it fell another 40 points to 885. In June the index was 11,900, so it has fallen 93 per cent in a few months – a crash far worse than anything ever seen in the stockmarket. The spot daily rental for a Capesize ship is now $6365, down from $234,000 per day over the space of a few weeks. Maybe that previous price was absurdly inflated, but at $6365 it is just $365 above the average daily cost of crews and fuel.
As a result the world’s ports are filling with empty ships because shipowners can’t afford to run them, as well as some full ships because the owners of the cargo won’t unload without a bank letter of credit, which banks are refusing to supply. Shipping companies are starting to file for bankruptcy in increasing numbers as they breach loan covenants, and a shipping researcher, Andreas Vergottis of Tufton Oceanic has told Bloomberg that a fifth of the world’s dry bulk companies may soon have negative net worth because the market for second hand ships has collapsed and the value of their fleets is below outstanding debt.
Investors Raise Their Bets on Defaults in EU Countries
Investors are upping their bets that as the $12.2 trillion euro-zone economy heads into recession, costly bank-bailout plans could drive some European governments to default on their debt. In the credit-default swaps market — where investors buy and sell derivatives that pay off when a debt issuer defaults — the cost of swaps linked to euro-zone countries including Italy and Greece has doubled in the past month.
For Ireland, which introduced a €400 billion ($518 billion) bank-guarantee program last month that is twice the size of its gross domestic product, investors’ cost of insuring against debt default has risen eightfold since the start of the year. “That the perceived probability of default for any industrialized country could be that high is extraordinary,” said Simon Johnson, a professor at MIT Sloan School of Management and a former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund. “Emerging markets go through this all the time. But these are rich, prosperous economies.”
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122540964633786201.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
regarding “Investors Raise Their Bets on Defaults in EU Countries”
it seems like the media and finance world are desperately trying to ignore spain. I think spain is by far worse off then any other european country from a systemic point.
20% of U.S. Homeowners Have Mortgage Higher Than House Is Worth
Almost 20 percent of U.S. mortgage borrowers owed more on their loans in the third quarter than their house was worth as foreclosures depressed prices and the economy weakened, according to First American CoreLogic. More than 7.5 million properties already have negative equity and another 2.1 million will follow should home prices decline another 5 percent, Santa Ana, California-based First American, a seller of economic and real estate data, said in a report today.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aYyk2_TLjGao&refer=home
Massive Effort to Save Mortgages
J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. launched an ambitious plan Friday to modify the terms of $70 billion in mortgages for borrowers who are behind on their payments or soon could be. The move by the New York bank will cover as many as 400,000 borrowers. They’ll be moved into loans carrying lower interest rates, smaller principal amounts or other more-affordable terms.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122549543952589677.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
China Manufacturing Contracts as Crisis Trims Exports
China’s manufacturing contracted as the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression eroded export demand. The Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to a seasonally adjusted 44.6 last month from 51.2 in September, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said today in an e-mailed statement. That was the lowest since the gauge was launched in July 2005. A reading below 50 reflects a contraction, above 50 an expansion.
China’s cabinet has pledged extra infrastructure spending to stimulate the world’s fourth-biggest economy amid the global slowdown. The government has already lowered rates three times in the past two months, increased export rebates and cut property transaction taxes. “The government needs effective stimulus measures to spur growth,” said Wang Qian, a Hong Kong-based economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. “The external economic outlook is worsening rapidly.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&refer=home&sid=asxpXKBhstjU
In some ways China is in a more precarious position then many countries. this is an explosions of civil unrest waiting to happen. So now they have no jobs and no wives…… thats a nasty combo from a civil stability standpoint.
Chill winds blow through China’s manufacturing heartland
The dislocated head of a baby doll stares blindly through the gate; WALL-E and Barbie Pet Doctor boxes are strewn across the yard. Two weeks ago, toymaking giant Smart Union was churning out goods for children across the United States and Europe. Now it is in liquidation and 7,000 former employees are in shock.
Few in the west have heard of Dongguan, but the chances are that your shoes, your TV or your children’s toys originated here. Exports have built a city of up to 14 million inhabitants — twice the population of Greater London — almost all migrant workers from the countryside. Its economy has grown 15% annually in recent years. Now the global financial and economic crisis is proving the final straw for exporters already punished by rising costs and a stronger currency.
“Impromptu protests by disgruntled workers left jobless and without pay are becoming more common; they have resorted to petitioning local officials for backpay because they have few other ways to remonstrate and be compensated. “They will complain more and they will go to local government offices more… You will see demonstrations and picketing. And probably there’s a risk of violence against bosses — especially foreigners.” Dongguan’s government stepped in to reimburse the Smart Union workers to the tune of 24,000 yuan (£2.2m) after thousands gathered at the factory gates and outside local authority offices.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/oct/31/china-manufacturing
How does the election affect RE? Any thoughts?
# bi Says:
October 31st, 2008 at 5:11 pm
254#, it would be interesting to hear how mike morgan spins this weekend to his paying followers. he was so certain that dow would be down over 1000 pts. but it ended up almost 1000 pts. for the week.
probably the only bi post ever that i read and agreed with. I realize Morgan has nailed most everything to date.
But i worry that he’s had so much success, he feels the need to keep it up by making weekly predictions on the market. What if it goes down 2000 this week? Then he’s just a week off?
Morgan has been sage-like through this mess, and I will continue to visit his blog.
No one takes college football as seriously as they do in the SEC:
Ga. school district closes day before Florida game
ESPN.com news services (23 hours ago)
Tired of struggling to find enough teachers to staff its classrooms on the Friday before the annual Georgia-Florida football game, the Clarke County (Ga.) School District decided to cancel school altogether.
Kettle,
Here ya go:
http://www.zillow.com/homes/map/1-kettle-creek–toms-river-nj_rb/#/homes/for_sale/map/1-kettle-creek–toms-river-nj_rb/40.01618,-74.14317,40.015564,-74.144444_rect/18_zm/
GAtor,
That goas a long way towards explaining the poor quality of public education in the south.
goes, even.
#285jamil What line of business are you in??
I bet Jamil manages a hedge fund.
#400 grim: Stop interrupting the collapse of the real estate market.
Not to be uncaring, but I wish they would finish collapsing already.
#402 kettle: Hopefullly the sooner the better in our area.
Moving van and three months rent. Then let the prices fall.
GA/FLA is looking like M/O.
Yeesh, like they care what is best for us:
http://www.newsweek.com/id/166910
And now a word on RE and loan modifications:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/01/business/01modify.html?em
#438 kettle: Please do not usr the word modification, it enrages me.
#454 shore: Please see post 455. It goes for you too. That word makes me totally irrational, and has now forced me to drop multiple F-bombs, something I rarely used to do.
Québec comedy duo prank call Palon
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081101.wqueduo1101/BNStory/usElection2008/home
“moved into loans carrying lower interest rates, smaller principal amounts or other more-affordable terms.”
Should be offered a moving van and an apartment or rental home at more-affordable terms.
modification, isn’t that part of “spreading the wealth around,” the best O’social-istic manner?
shore,
i must now change my name. i cannot have such unsavory associations being made.
Kettle1 = Ketel1
atleast now i shall be associated with a quality product that has real social value.
3b
Sounds like it is time for you to be reeducated. Soon enough. Soon enough.
Hey, Ket. Not everyone here has a road named after them.
or a psychiatric condition, either.
452 Shore – :) Few things are as fun during football season as beating the cr*p out of GA! I hope for the R’s sake that M does just a little bit better on Tuesday.
Public education is pretty mediocre across the South, but Floridians always liked to consider themselves academically superior to Georgia. My favorite Gator Growl skit had Herschel Walker returning back to Georgia to get an honorary degree. In order to get his diploma, he had to answer 1 question – What is 2+2. Herschel then went into deep thought and the Jeopardy theme music was played. At the end of the song, he answered very unsure “4″. The Georgia students in the stand were asked what they thought and their reply was “Give him another chance!”. Good times.
Gator,
You know how I have been saying I would not be surprised if O gets 400 EV votes? I saw a real clear politics map showing him with something like 311 solid and something on the order of 110 toss-ups.
On the other hand, I read here that Zogby is showing it getting closer. Since Zogby was the one who was head and shoulders above the other pollsters in 2000 and 2004, I will not discount his numbers, even when they diverge from the herd. I will also pray he is correct, and that M can pull this out of the dust bin.
Ket,
Just so it is clear,I was not saying that kettle, in any of its spellings, is a psychiatric disorder.
VP pick Sarah Palin hoaxed by comedy prank call
57 minutes ago
MONTREAL (AFP) — Republican vice presidential hopeful Sarah Palin on Saturday was the victim of a prank phone call by a French-Canadian comedian impersonating French President Nicolas Sarkozy.
After Palin realized the call was a hoax, her campaign staff admitted she was “mildly amused.”
The prank tag-team from Quebec, “Justicia masques,” who have previously targeted heads of state and celebrities, posted the conversation on their website (www.justiciers.tv).
In the recording, John M’s running mate enthusiastically takes the fake Sarkozy’s call.
“It’s so good to hear you, thank you for calling us … we have such great respect for you, John M and I, we love you!” Palin said.
She appeared unfazed by the fake president’s thick French accent and some outrageous comments.
At one point the impersonator, comedian Sebastien Trudel, told the Alaskan governor he is following the US elections closely along with his special American advisor Johnny Hallyday — a famous French rock’n'roll singer.
When the fake president told Palin his wife Carla Bruni is “hot in bed,” the governor chuckled and complimented him for his “beautiful family.”
Palin also proffered to continue relations if she reaches the White House.
“We should go hunting together,” Palin said.
Palin laughed in response to Trudel’s comment: “I just love killing those animals … take away life, that is so fun!”
The governor, who is making a whistle-stop tour through key states in the last weekend before the November 4 election, told the fake president that she is “very confident” about the Republican ticket’s chances, and said she thought “the race is tightening” ahead of Tuesday’s general election.
“I see you as a president one day, too,” said the comedian.
“Maybe in eight years,” replied Palin.
The comedy duo have previously used their Sarkozy impersonation to target former French president Jacques Chirac, celebrities Mick Jagger and Britney Spears, and Sarkozy himself.
“This was our most explosive coup so far,” comedian Marc Antoine Audette told AFP, adding that it was “difficult” for his accomplice Trudel to get their request for a phone conversation past Palin’s entourage and her Secret Service detail.
The M campaign later released a statement about the phone call.
“Governor Palin was mildly amused to learn that she had joined the ranks of heads of state, including President Sarkozy, and other celebrities in being targeted by these pranksters. C’est la vie.”
http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5hgBiKF820Dz9_HMq4UYDKz1cTjTA
shore,
dont worry, my wife would agree ;) and she is a licensed psychologist
Shore 467 – Ouch. Did you see SP on Fox mention that during the first 100 days of the McC admin that they would “really shore up the strategies that we need over in Iraq and Iran to win these wars”?
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/11/did_palin_suggest_were_at_war.php
bairen Says:
November 1st, 2008 at 8:37 am
#260 toshiro Looks like we won’t have to wait till Spring to get some shiny new toys.
I miss Booya Bob
bairen-it-all: For my money, he provided the #1 all time NJREReport quote “….READ MY LIPS YOU SCHMUCK…”….he was Gary without a filter…yes, I meant that….
Gator: Did you hear Joe Bliden lecture us in the VP debate how US drove Hezbollah out of Lebanon? I suppose this happened in Joe’s fantasy world in his favorite coffee shop (that was closed 20 years ago..)
“I bet Jamil manages a hedge fund.”
Stu,
Contra party with Frank?
bairen Says:
November 1st, 2008 at 9:39 am
#280 chifi Do you ever go to the soup man? I think it’s on Front or Broad st.
It’s on Broad at White across from the Starbucks. Actually, no I don’t. It is a good idea, but not executed well. Sorry to be negative if you appreciate the place.
One of the problems with upscale/higher price point positioned/chain fast food is that the quality of food in NJ is too good to fork out $8-10 on a cup of soup. There are a lot of places that kind of get stuck in the same trap: Xando, Cosi, Quiznos, Panera, Soup Man, Baja etc….the concept is fine, but in NY Metro, it comes off as small portions, not-as-fresh-as-alternatves, lacking taste, extra sodium to compensate.
I just don’t like the idea or dropping $10-$15 on a small portion, take-out, fast food in a faux gourmet style. Starbucks is one of the only places that actually delivers quality, but you need to carefully stick to the drinks. In Cleveland, I’m sure the Soup Man is a godsend. Einstein’s Bagels was for Chicago.
bob: sorry to disappoint you..we are not in financial services. Maybe I should be. The bonuses and high life of Frank sounds almost too good to be true.
Shore 465 – I
Why M might be doing so well according to Zogby:
http://www.wcontent.com/picture1.png
also take the same link and try picture2.png, picture3.png and picture4.png
Shore 465 – I know that Zogby’s sample includes less Dems than other polls. It will be interesting to see which of all the pollsters has the best model for this election.
What say you if at the next GTG, I buy you a drink if O wins and you buy me one if M wins. Based on our beliefs we each think we’ll be worse off financially if the other’s candidate wins.
#437
20% of mortgage holders, not homeowners are under water.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tt2yGzHfy7s
O says he will create “Civilian National Security Force” that is just as strong as military. Yep, that’s what the country needs: Paramilitary forces swearing loyalty to The One. Why not just call it SA (or SS)?
I suppose they will enforce the “He will not allow you to continue to be uninformed” policy Michelle talked about. Now I understand why he wants to release Gitmo folks. He needs it for something else..
shore,
at the core, i am against loan modification or forgiveness of any sort.
However…… If the banks and corporate america are being handed money like a nor’easter just blew through, then the horse has left the barn. At this point i do not see, what amounts to appeasement offerings to the average joe, to be of any real significance.
The damage done by any such offerings is no longer significant in the big picture, relative to the damage that the government is doing by trying to buy its way out of the financial collapse.
home loan modification, credit card loan forgiveness….. its all irrelevant, as all it really is, is the panicked thrashing of a drowning man about to slip under the waves.
The real and unfortunate impact is that if the government is going to spend trillions of dollars, it could have been spending them on infrastructure and on social aid programs that will desperately be needed as the collapse proceeds and the number of hungry families without shelter increases. Its in everyone’s interest that jack and jane have a warm bowl of soup in their tummy as opposed to a CEO getting his 20 million golden parachute from a failed company propped up with taxpayer funds.
Clot – would be interested in your two cents on Gator/Stu:
MLS# 2594420
As per JB it’s a Short Sale + Existing Lease
Agent Comments: subject to 3rd party approval, Tenant has lease till Aug 09, $3300 mo and has right to stay.
Asking price is currently $525k. It sold in 2005 for $712,500. Assuming a 20%DP(and I think this is a generous assumption) the original loan was 570k.
The current lease would not be break even unless a purchaser put down around 40%. Who is going to tie up over 200k in a house they can’t even live in for a year? Doesn’t seem like there would be a very big buyer pool at current ask. Do you think such a bank would be willing to cut a deal? Or do they foreclose since they have a tenant to defray monthly costs and carry the place until the end of the lease to sell at a potentially higher price?
Jamil,
I believe we will see something along the lines of “civil national security force” regardless of who is in office.
As long as the current PTB are running the show we will continue down the path we are on.
does any of this sound familiar?
a nationalist ideology that is primarily concerned with perceived problems associated with cultural, economic, political, and social decline or decadence. It seeks to solve such problems by achieving a millenarian national rebirth by exalting the nation or race as well as promoting cults of unity, strength and purity.
#473 chifi
try the turkey chili or any of the gumbos. You may want to reconsider your comment.
In Hoboken 8 1bd condos sold in an average of 84 days at an average sale price of $375,687 just this week.
You call this a crisis? You call this a recession? Give me a break.
http://hudson.fnismls.com/publink/default.aspx?GUID=3286de13-5425-4a8c-92ca-17aa7fa999ce&Report=Yes
One for Jamil.
Murdoch says 0bama win could worsen financial crisis:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20081101/pl_afp/usvoteaustraliamediamurdoch_081101041202
which ever candidate wins will be so heavily indebted to the various backstage power brokers that neither will challenge the current corporatism. to do so would be biting the hand that feeds them.
The median sales price for Hoboken condos listed on the MLS was $485,000 September 2007. It was up to $489,000 as of the end of this September. Real-estate boom lives on.
The Chinese time bomb?….
37% of China’s GDP comes from exports (source:http://tinyurl.com/58wsg4). Its likely that china will see serious social issues if growth drops below 5% (currently at 10%) due standards of living and employment needing a greater then 5% growth rate to maintain the status quo.
Chin’a ability to act as a massive global creditor is largely based on its stunning growth rate and its domineering level of exports. Both of those will now drop. The question is how much, how far and for how long. it is likely that China’s ability to loan is going to rapidly come under pressure due to internal factors caused by the external slow down of international markets.
So where is the time bomb? If china has trouble buying american bonds then how are our other credits going to continue doing so? and what is one to do with massive amounts of american dollars when the value starts to drop?
the kettle1 musings of the day.
1 of 54 in Hoboken. I guess the boom is foreclosures;
http://realestate.yahoo.com/New_Jersey/Hoboken/Homes_for_sale/5cc8834ee5cc7d9a4af5302c8a2834bd;_ylt=AgawQ7nsosgrFy3TvbOxaAjnMrQs?cc=realestate&p=Hoboken,%20NJ&priceHigh=&priceLow=&nodeId=750007014&sortBy=price%202&radius=&bedrooms=&bathrooms=&type=foreclosure&b=51<ype=0
kettle [488],
Another bull market, treasury supply.
but my fave perk is the twice annual beauty sale held by one of our magazines. The magazine takes all the high end makeup, skin care and hair care products that it gets to review and shoot for publication and sells it all off for charity. A lot of it is super premium expensive stuff made by the best labels. All products sell for $2 an item.
hahaha. too funny. this was such a hit at the mag i was at, my wife came in last year to buy products because the year prior i didnt get enough “good stuff.” i sat near the beauty girl and was cool with her, so i got into the coveted first group.
quite a scene, indeed.
491 Yikes – Nice. I get my pre-vite by sucking up to the ME. He knows we will do anything not to get knocked off the list.
You are so right. If you don’t get in first, you might as well not go.
492 Gator
Do you seek out the non-animal tested stuff or is it kind of a free for all?
Gator – Congrats on the win tonight. Lots of Dawgs fans around here are crying in their beer. 49-10 Yikes!!
Frank, do you trust everything Murdoch says? One day I would like to meet your parents. Then I would like to ensure their sterility.
Gator,
As I will be tapped out after O wins, I will galdly accept a drink from you – Stu too.
#488 Ket – Maybe China needs us more than we need it. Their people were slaves to the state as recently as 1979. They remember the really gruesome days of famine when they were eating bark (no kidding)and roots but that was before capitalism. They have no experience with economic downturns so when this one hits, they may not really believe it is temporary and they may panic. I bet no one ever told them that economies run in cycles and, like real estate, they thought the boom would last forever. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out. There are so many pieces to this puzzle, it’s tough to put it together.
494 Outofstater – Well they say in Gainesville that nothing smells worse than a wet Dawg! It was a fun game to watch. Hopefully all goes according to plan and we can take care of Bama in the SEC championship game.
Lost 493 – It is a giant free for all. You grab what you can off the table and from the boxes. I usually do get to sort through it all in a corner before making final purchases. I always grab more than the cash in my wallet :)
hahahahahah
idiot!
Bernanke proposes bottom for MBS market
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/page-from-japans-playbook-bernanke.html
#500 kettle1
He’s called helicopter ben for a reason.
I don’t think there really is a safe haven to move to. This bubble is global, just about every country participated in it through bubbly re prices, making junk people could purchase by tapping into their new found equity in their homes, or by digging stuff out of the ground to sell to the manufacturing countries.
I’ve decided to vote for Booya Bob.
His press conferences will be hysterical, and his policies would be much better than the powers that be will install.
I imagine a cross between Teddy Roosevelt, Gary, and George Carlin.
Gator,
Must be Beat Down Saturday. Saw yer gators open up a can of whoop ass on the dawgs. Couldnt believe the dawgs were ranked.
And my alma mater pounded URI 49-0. Booya.
Kettle,
How are the banks in the U.K. in deeper doo-doo?
Greater leverage?
Less deposit insurance = greater risk of bank runs?
A few random anecdotes for the weekend, apologies for needing to be a bit stingy on detail:
Large FOFs drastically extending redemption notice/lockup periods, not exactly going to inspire confidence once word gets out; those with some transparency may also create risk of runs on the underlying mgrs
Recent conversation with w/ hedgie, Paulson came up, distinct impression that gig will prove to be a one-trick pony. But at 2/20, does it really matter?
Hearing some of the biggest HF names in dire straits, due to incomprehensible bet-the-firm positions, trying to knock it out of the park, going horribly wrong. If one in particular goes bad, the unwind is going to be very big, very ugly.
Quant funds also getting hit hard- imagine it’s pretty tough to black box the Sept/Oct action.
Net net, if it makes your 401k feel any better – HNW crowd is getting decimated as well. Guess all those high priced advisors didn’t read this blog when they should have. Of course I don’t hear much about “decoupling” anymore…
In terms of credit anecdotes, I witnessed a colleague attempt to get a slam-dunk refi (stellar great credit, huge LTV) on a NYC condo, categorically rejected. He was dumbfounded.
Another friend, top tier credit high earning dual income couple, canceled one card to switch to another, they never carry a balance. Old limit on the card: $35k. Limit on new card, same bank- I sh*t you not – $3500. He was sure it was a mistake. It wasn’t.
This credit shockwave is going to be like neutron bomb, few left standing. I keep looking for evidence to the contrary, but the road ahead, off the 1,000ft cliff, is all too clear.