From the Press of Atlantic City:
State down $73.1 million amid low home sales, gaming, retail
The housing-market downturn isn’t just affecting property owners looking to unload their homes; the state, too, is feeling the pinch, collecting $17.6 million less this year as fewer sales translated to less realty-transfer tax.
Collections of the fee, a sliding percentage based on the value of the home, fell nearly 17 percent over the past year, according to comparisons of July, August and September.
The state collected $86.2 million this year during the same three months, more than 15 percent less than expected.
But the realty tax is the only area in which the state is hurting. An array of similar figures shows the ongoing economic downturn collectively resulted in more than $73.1 million less in taxes collected.
While some tax collections went up, state declines included a gap of more than $56.4 million in sales tax, almost $12.8 million in lottery funds and more than $7.1 million in casino revenue taxes.
…
But while the economy may be worsening, it is unclear what the overall impact on the state’s finances and its $33 billion budget will be.
…
Speaking with reporters last week, state Treasurer David Rousseau said the state still looked at a potential $400 million budget deficit next year, repeating a figure initially used by Gov. Jon S. Corzine in an Oct. 15 speech before a joint session of the state Legislature as he laid out an ambitious recovery plan that would aid the neediest households while increasing short-term employment and pushing long-term development and keeping state spending in check.Rousseau said he might update the potential deficit figures in the coming weeks.
He said last month it was difficult to diagnose the state’s fiscal health from one quarter’s figures. But some shortfalls during the three months have been steep.
Somehow, I don’t think this is what the Fed/Treasury intended for the TARP…
From Bloomberg:
American Express Wins Fed Approval to Become Bank
American Express Co. won U.S. Federal Reserve approval to become a commercial bank, gaining access to government funds as credit-card defaults climb with economies slowing around the world.
The Fed waived a 30-day waiting period on the application because of “the unusual and exigent circumstances affecting the financial markets,” according to a Fed statement released yesterday in Washington. Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and his colleagues unanimously approved the plan.
With defaults rising in the U.S. along with the unemployment rate, October marked the first month since 1993 that card companies were unable to sell bonds backed by customer payments. New York-based American Express said last month that credit-card holders failed to repay loans in the third quarter at almost twice the rate of a year earlier.
“That business has totally dried up,” said Frederic Dickson, who helps oversee about $20 billion as chief market strategist at D.A. Davidson & Co. in Lake Oswego, Oregon. “If I were a shareholder, it wouldn’t send a very warm and fuzzy message to me.”
From the AP:
Fannie posts $29B 3Q loss, $100B may not be enough
Fannie Mae on Monday posted a $29 billion loss in the third quarter as it took a massive tax-related charge, and warned that its $100 billion lifeline from the government may not be sufficient for its solvency should it continue to lose money.
…
Not only may it have to tap the $100 billion federal backstop in the coming months, Fannie said. If the company continues to suffer substantial losses “or to the extent that we experience a liquidity crisis that prevents us from accessing the unsecured debt markets, this commitment may not be sufficient to keep us in solvent condition or from being placed into receivership,” it said in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
From the Courier Post:
Animals are unwitting victims of home foreclosures
A number of years ago, we lost our miniature red poodle. Periodically, we’ve considered looking for another pet, this time considering a rescue dog. We recently read online about an 11-month-old Havanese available for adoption.
A call revealed that the dog was left in a foreclosed house and was being cared for by a farmer’s wife who was well known for her canine rescue efforts. It certainly sounded promising.
We drove the 18 miles to the farm while discussing the merits of acquiring a more mature dog, our need for a nonshedding animal and the possibility of renaming the dog. We toyed with a number of names including “Foreclosure” or “Bankie.” We both thought that would be insensitive.
From Bloomberg:
Toll Revenue Drops 41% as Luxury-Home Demand Slumps
Toll Brothers Inc., the largest U.S. luxury homebuilder, said revenue dropped 41 percent in the fourth quarter, the 10th straight decline, as home prices plunged and consumer confidence fell.
Homebuilding revenue dropped to $691 million in the three months ended Oct. 31 from $1.17 billion a year earlier, the Horsham, Pennsylvania-based company said today in a statement. Toll was projected to have sales of about $647 million, according to the average estimate of 13 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.
Home prices slid 17 percent in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas in August as foreclosures rose, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller price index. The global financial crisis dented demand for homes in October, following almost two months in which Toll’s revenue was little changed from a year earlier, the company said.
The crisis drove “home-buyer confidence and our traffic and demand down to record lows,” Chief Executive Officer Robert Toll said in the statement. “The government’s efforts must concentrate on stopping the decline in home prices by bringing potential buyers back into the market.”
Cancellations in the quarter rose to 233, or 30 percent of all contracts, the company said. That was the highest rate in fiscal 2007. By the end of the quarter, net contracts had fallen 27 percent to $266.7 million for 539 homes, a drop of 18 percent.
From the WSJ:
Mall Owner Is Warning of Default
By BRIAN KALISH and KRIS HUDSON
Ailing mall owner General Growth Properties Inc. warned Monday in a government filing that its failure to refinance or extend $1 billion in debt due this month could trigger default on billions of dollars in debt and its ability to continue operations would be in “substantial doubt.”
One of the nation’s largest shopping mall owners, General Growth made the warning in a quarterly filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The company, based in Chicago, faces an additional $3.07 billion in debt coming due next year.
http://www.monkeybusinessblog.com/mbb_weblog/aig/
Talk about uses for the TARP..
Check out this stuff on AIG:
(several articles in a row..)
“Our biggest beef with the AIG bailout is we think the other entity that got bailed out on the quiet was Goldman Sachs, AIG’s biggest credit default swap counterparty.”
(3) Grim – How is Spooky doing?
Radioactive sinks? Next time you go to an open house, bring your geiger-counter:
Last year, U.S. Customs rejected 64 shipments of radioactive goods at the nation’s ports, including purses, cutlery, sinks and hand tools, according to data released by the Department of Homeland Security in response to a Freedom of Information Act request. India was the largest source, followed by China.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aKNgo0CVJg9s&refer=home
(3) Grim – How is Spooky doing?
https://njrereport.com/images/spooky.jpg
We are looking for a new home, the person who was going to take him couldn’t get approval from their landlord to have another dog.
From the Star Ledger:
For New Jersey, this will be the decade of lost jobs
New Jersey stands to have fewer private-sector jobs when the decade ends than when it began, a dubious distinction it has not experienced since the Great Depression, according to a Rutgers University economic forecast.
In a bleak assessment of the state’s economy, the study’s authors, James Hughes and Joseph Seneca, predicted recessionary conditions will prevail throughout the United States through 2009 and perhaps even longer in New Jersey, with considerable job losses still to be absorbed.
The forecast in the Sitar-Rutgers Regional Report is the latest bit of dreary economic news for New Jersey. The credit crisis that sent stocks cratering in September and delivered body blows to the banking and securities industry is now seeping through all corners of the state’s economy.
It was hardly a surprise when the investment bank Barclays recently notified the state it would eliminate jobs. But companies as diverse as Footstar, a shoe retailer, Deluxe Maunfacturing, a maker of custom stationery and business cards, and Survivor Technologies, a windows manufacturer, also announced plans to shed hundreds of jobs.
Yesterday the electronics retail chain Circuit City, which intends to close two New Jersey stores along with 153 others, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.
“Things are going to get worse before they get better,” said Hughes, dean of Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy.
(9) He is just too cute! How are you doing? That is a lot of responsibility on top of everything else!
My post at #6 is do to my search for info as to why AIG is getting all of this attention. If it is true, and the support of AIG centers around their connection with GS, what happens once Paulson is gone?
http://www.poorhousestory.com/poorhouses_in_new_jersey.htm
Just in case any of you ever wondered, here’s a bit of history on the poor houses of New Jersey.
grim (5)-
Got SRS?
This is EXACTLY what wanted. Money give to be lent out and that is all Amex does. They don’t want to hoard it like the banks.
grim Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 7:09 am
Somehow, I don’t think this is what the Fed/Treasury intended for the TARP…
From Bloomberg:
American Express Wins Fed Approval to Become Bank
Money give to be lent out and that is all Amex does.
EZ-Pawn seeking approval to become a bank holding corporation. Vinnie’s Check Cashing and Payday Loan also exploring the option.
John (15)-
Money lent through credit cards? You’re kidding, right?
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122635785172615315.html
Home Inventories Remain Huge
“The October inventory in 29 metro areas was down about 9.3% from a year earlier, ZipRealty said. Foreclosed homes are a big part of the current supply, however, and they aren’t always sold through multiple-listing services. That makes the exact inventory situation uncertain.
Clotpoll, I know you are rich folk but small business’s life blood is the AMEX card. They purchase inventory with it, sell goods on it and in a pinch use it as a float. Mastercard is just a credit card processer. But AMEX is the card that the business uses and it is also the T&E card.
I wonder, if these ‘banks’ are using Tax Payer money, if they will continue to charge high usury rates (30%) to customers?
Oh who am I kidding….of course they will! Now with government sponsorship. Never a better time for cash only transactions.
Money lent through credit cards? You’re kidding, right?
They’d probably get more velocity pushing that cash to Walmart or Target to loosen credit lines.
When does WalMart start pounding the table about being rejected when they wanted to ramp up their banking ops a couple of years ago?
They still have that Utah-chartered business bank, I think.
Like I said yesterday, Circuit City should have tried the Bank Holding Company route before they declared bankruptcy:)
“They’d probably get more velocity pushing that cash to Walmart or Target to loosen credit lines.”
China’d be happy with that.
When does WalMart start pounding the table about being rejected when they wanted to ramp up their banking ops a couple of years ago?
Bingo, gold star.
Clot,
Next move is for the banks to get into real estate brokerage directly.
Citi to rework $20 billion in mortgages. A nice gesture, but don’t look for it to help the market stabilize. Why? They’ve already rewritten $35 billion in mortgages since 2007.
From Bloomberg:
Citi Will Halt Some Foreclosures, Rework Mortgages
Citigroup Inc., the fourth-biggest U.S. bank by market value, plans to stem foreclosures as the firm modifies about $20 billion in mortgages, following similar moves by its largest rivals.
Citigroup will reach out to 500,000 homeowners in the next six months who may be at risk of falling behind on mortgage payments, the New York-based company said in a statement today. The bank has helped about 370,000 people, or $35 billion in mortgages, avoid foreclosure since 2007.
Grim,
Why not, they certainly have enough inventory from the foreclosures.
From the Record:
Recount wanted in vote to change town’s name
Residents who are against renaming the borough Woodland Park vowed Monday night at a community meeting to demand a recount of the votes from last week’s election.
About 200 angry residents came out to the American Legion hall on Mount Pleasant Avenue to discuss their options for saving the borough’s historic name. The ballot question appeared to have passed by 31 votes Tuesday night, but there were 101 provisional ballots that had not yet been counted, according to Passaic County election officials. There are 59 of those provisional ballots are now thought to be valid, officials said
grim (26)-
F-up and move up.
People hate Realtors? Wait until they have to buy a house from an unlicensed, unregulated bank teller.
grim (27)-
Citi to be very surprised when lots of those borrowers say “no thanks” to the workouts.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122636946597216229.html
Uh, Oh – Here come the malls…
“mall Owner is warning of Default”
“Ailing mall owner General Growth Properties Inc. warned Monday in a government filing that its failure to refinance or extend $1B in debt due this month could trigger default of billions of dollars in debt and its ability to continue operations would be in substantial doubt.”
From the LA Times:
Goldman Sachs urged bets against California bonds it helped sell
Goldman, Sachs & Co. urged some of its big clients to place investment bets against California bonds this year despite having collected millions of dollars in fees to help the state sell some of those same bonds.
The giant investment firm did not inform the office of California Treasurer Bill Lockyer that it was proposing a way for investment clients to profit from California’s deepening financial misery. In Sacramento, officials said they were concerned that Goldman’s strategy could raise the interest rate the state would have to pay to borrow money, thus harming taxpayers.
Citi to be very surprised when lots of those borrowers say “no thanks” to the workouts.
Especially if one of the requirements for a workout is to document borrower income.
grim (33)-
GS…world’s biggest bucket shop.
“State down $73.1 million amid low home sales, gaming, retail”
Don’t worry Corzine and Co. has many tax raising ideas.
http://www.urbandigs.com/2008/11/condos_the_latest_unkind_cut.html?ref=patrick.net
NYC ZOMBIE CONDOS
http://blog.oregonlive.com/multimedia/2008/11/post_9.html
Some election results from the small town in Oregon where I lived for 21 years…
Oh yeah, I know Stu – Everyone knows Stu. He was the mayor when I first moved there – well, he looked a little different then…
clotpoll 35
GS a bucket shop?????
is this who is runing the show then?
http://tinyurl.com/2qpj2j
“This is EXACTLY what wanted. Money give to be lent out and that is all Amex does. They don’t want to hoard it like the banks.”
John,
You’re missing the point. AE can’t sell its cc receivables in this market.
“Not only may it have to tap the $100 billion federal backstop in the coming months, Fannie said.”
http://www.flickr.com/photos/fintag/3018346895/
Re: #8 dblko – I read the book “Gomorrah” while I was over in Italy this year that detailed the disposal of some of the radioactive stuff. Seems the Camorra have been dealing in disposing of the stuff illegally for years all over Europe and Asia. They melt the radioactive stuff into metals and mix it up with concrete and dump it in landfills around Naples.
Apparently the Camorra mafia have a hit out on the Author too.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/chi-italy-mafia_movie_spolaroct17,0,3440618.story
And GWB thinks the Arabs are dealing in weapons of mass distruction!
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Russian-equities-fall-sharply-trading/story.aspx?guid=%7B0780E34F%2D8F20%2D4CC2%2DA625%2DC2390A2388F3%7D&dist=hplatest
Russian Equities Fall Sharply Trading Suspended
So got off phone with friend who was at GS, told me in last few weeks they went to one ply in bathrooms, put dispensers in so you only could take one napkin at a time, canceled free coffed and eliminated paper cups. They still have pantry on floor and a hot water dispenser but you need a mug and a teabag or sanka of your own.
From my days in external audit the joke was once you go to one ply and cancel free coffee you were half way to an “ongoing concern” comment in your financials.
Won’t have to as it can get CP at less than 2% and as bank it can get in on TARP that should get them through the next six months. I guess after that they need to go to the Hsadeic Factoring Guys up in the Jewlery District.
BC Bob Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 8:44 am
“This is EXACTLY what wanted. Money give to be lent out and that is all Amex does. They don’t want to hoard it like the banks.”
John,
You’re missing the point. AE can’t sell its cc receivables in this market.
Cindy (43)-
Not to worry. The Russkies can just jump over to the NYSE and short the ADRs into the ground. Look at WBD, MTL and some other Russian issues. Just putrid.
i heard starbucks was applying to become a bank holding company. any link?
Seeking advice and good RE agent…
Up until this month, I worked in Newark. A few months ago, I moved my family to Bucks Co. to find a better quality of life. The commute wasn’t great, but the train was convenient enough.
Well, I now have a new job in Summit. Bucks County is off the table, and we’re moving back.
We lived in Brigadoon for 2 years, but it was a little crowded for my taste. We’re thinking through all the choices including Basking Ridge, Bernardsville, Madison, Chatham, Berkeley Heights, New Prov, etc, etc. We’ll be renting, but we’d like to rent somewhere we can settle in. We have 2 small kids, so schools would definitely be an issue. I’m resigned to deal with the snobbery issue, given the locales on the list, but maybe some towns are slightly better.
Does anyone have strong opinions on towns with a decent commute to Summit?
We also need a good RE agent. We had one in Westfield, but she was terrible. I think it bothered her that we were renters.
John (45)-
The factors wouldn’t touch AXP.
Unless they had Chenault’s earlobes as collateral.
John (44)-
Let us know when they put bars on the windows and hand out orange jumpsuits.
I hear with all this TARP money going around the Washington economy is doing pretty well. Hotels and restaurants are booked. RE is holding up around the Capitol.
This is a record year for lobbyist. I need to hire lobbyist and get me a pieace of that TARP. Any suggestions?
Can we apply for a bank charter as blogers from NJ?
BC would be CEO, ChiFI, chief risk analyst, Grim would serve as chairman, myself and clot would be in charge of stealing money and handing it to Kettle who would store it in Domenica until the smoke clears.
“Cancellations in the quarter rose to 233, or 30 percent of all contracts,”
Does anyone have any dsata on what the cancellation rate was during the peak years?
dad (48)-
Why do you want to put up with the attitude in those towns?
I’m biased, but why don’t you look at Hunterdon, Somerset or the parts of Morris that are an easy shot to work for you?
The further west you go, the less bad attitude you’ll get.
Clot – You’ve gotta go back and check out #38…
The crisis drove “home-buyer confidence and our traffic and demand down to record lows,” Chief Executive Officer Robert Toll said in the statement. “The government’s efforts must concentrate on stopping the decline in home prices by bringing potential buyers back into the market.”
Yes, that’s exactly what the role of the govt is.. to keep house prices up.
Sometimes you gotta wonder what these guys are sipping…
-Richie
Clotpoll Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 9:06 am
John (45)- The factors wouldn’t touch AXP.
Unless they had Chenault’s earlobes as collateral.
AXP naysayers……it is a chargecard, it doesn’t charge interest. The most important thing about an AmEx is that it has no spending limit. For small business and corporate customers, this feature is key.
Shore (52)-
Cancellations were virtually 0 during the boom. Even the most toxic buyers could go to the builder’s in-house lender on the off chance that outside lenders couldn’t qualify them.
Richie Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 9:10 am
Yes, that’s exactly what the role of the govt is.. to keep house prices up.
Sometimes you gotta wonder what these guys are sipping… -Richie
R-man: Bobby Boy is a diminutive Napoleonic a-hole of the highest order. I saw him present at a Cornell function a couple of years ago and he really made a clear impression on me. Grim had a chance to go, but he completelty stood me up. Later he made some excuse about getting his chest waxed. After seeing him at IOUSA, I know he was lying through his teeth….
There’s only $60 billion left of the first $350 billion tranche of what was once known as the Trash Asset Removal Plan (and is now known as the only pot of available money in the world). So many companies of all shapes, sizes, and flavors are demanding cash that Treasury can barely process the requests.
Congress will presumably order the Treasury to immediately begin doling out the second $350 billion, which, a few months ago, was seen as a sort of “just in case” reserve fund. No more.
In addition to the nine banks that got $125 billion shoved down their throats, the TARP has gone to a crowd of smaller banks and AIG, which just gulped down another $40 billion. Next up is Fannie Mae, which lost $29 billion yesterday, and General Motors and Ford, which are running on fumes.
darn,
The crooks have emptied the cookie jar. Please God, one more TARP program I promise not to piss this one.
Cindy (54)-
I saw this train wreck on the news a couple of nights ago. Nearly tossed my dinner.
I think a good auto body guy could do better work than that.
chi (56)-
They also can’t grow their business…or get paid. No matter what they are, that’s a problem.
(60) Clot – Isn’t he the ugliest “woman” ever? But tell you what, a he!! of a politician and honest as the day is long. He always cared about that little town.
I lived there for 21 years. And folks just took you the way you were.
I think part of TARP should be an experimental summary imprisonment program.
And they should start with Bob Toll.
#48 daddyo: resigned to deal with the snobbery issue.
The snobbery issue may be less of an issue right about now. I think you may see less snobbery and more fear.
Anyone know what it cost to build per sq foot in Morris County NJ (Madison)?
I am looking at a tear down situation: Builder bought, put up a new home and now on the market for insane price!
Help is needed.
Cindy (62)-
“I lived there for 21 years. And folks just took you the way you were.”
That may be the understatement of the year.
Seems like they’ll also take you the way you are, will be, might be and could be.
U.S. to Push Banks To Step Up Lending.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/11/10/AR2008111002918.html
“The Treasury Department plans to spend $250 billion to buy stakes in financial firms as part of its mammoth $700 billion financial rescue program. Lawmakers, however, have complained that institutions that have accepted the government investments have been spending excessive amounts to reward their shareholders and top officers instead of increasing lending.
In drafting guidance for financial firms, federal banking agencies have wrestled over how to goad them into lending without compelling them to make bad loans. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. wants stronger language that would pressure institutions to lend, while other regulators have argued that that could expose the banks to more losses, the sources said on condition of anonymity because the document has not been released publicly. The disagreement at one point threatened the effort.“
(66) Clot – Absolutely…
It was always a kick to see just how Stu would show up at a party…
ham (65)-
Can’t say. You don’t specify the quality level of the rehab (materials, detail, workmanship). Also, was an architect involved?
Square foot calculations, IMO, are more appropriate for commercial RE. Focus on the local market, comps and the financial health of the seller. They will get you to a truer market value than trying to count the sticks and stones.
kettle [67],
I guess I’m nuts. However, wouldn’t it be rational to hold cash as loan loss reserves, in an environment of declining asset prices, rising unemployment and declining real wages?
vodka (67)-
I swear to God, you could put a group of 5-year-olds into a room and they’d come out with better than this.
That Housing Panic guy was right. We are a nation run by monkeys.
Were I a lender, I’d consider anyone looking to borrow big money right now to be a de facto high risk entity.
One of our mortgage guys had a client in the conference room last night as I was leaving. He was taking an application.
As I walked out the door, the first car I saw in my lot had “For Sale” signs in three of the windows. It was the borrowers’ car.
Trading halted on LVS.
Is it a good time to buy, yet?
(67) Kettle -I don’t get it. They say the loan market works just fine if you are qualified. But there is no demand. Who wants new debt for anything just now. Does the gov think they can legislate demand? What are they trying to accomplish?
Happy Veteran’s Day all you veterans. Hopefully – you have a day off.
I give GE kudas on slapping lipstick on the GNW pig and IPOing it at the peak. That thing is going down quicker than a 59st bridge trannie during fleet week.
R-man: Bobby Boy is a diminutive Napoleonic a-hole of the highest order. I saw him present at a Cornell function a couple of years ago and he really made a clear impression on me. Grim had a chance to go, but he completelty stood me up. Later he made some excuse about getting his chest waxed. After seeing him at IOUSA, I know he was lying through his teeth….
He’s a really hairy guy, and the excuse doesn’t suprise me. :)
-Richie
Cindy
Who wants new debt for anything just now.
Only those who cannot afford it…
Does the gov think they can legislate demand?
Yes……
What are they trying to accomplish?
They are trying to get the average joe to start borrowing money again. The entire economy is debt based (i.e debt as money). If new debt is not constantly created then the pyramid scheme that our current finance/service based economy is based falls apart.
People are starting to payoff debt as opposed to taking on new debt. This effectively destroys “assets”. Those assets are the loans that the banks and other businesses sell and buy on the open market ( the whole leverage issue).
On top of that, the value of the property securing these loans, held as collateral is rapidly dropping. These institions were leveraged 10-20:! before the underlying assets started to lose value. Now that the underlying assets are dropping in value and the borrowers are starting to default the banking/finanical system is in very big trouble.
The only long term solution is for the debts to be wiped out one way or another as a good portion of those debts will ever be fully repaid anyway.
Nice Investment Grade GE Spinoff!!!
GENWORTH FINL INC SR NT 5.23100% 05/16/2009
Price (Ask) 83.000
Yield to Worst (Ask) 46.758%
Dow down 200, BORING>
Thank GOD!
We are still using fluffy(ish) paper and have free coffee all day long.
And hot water. And soda. And Red Bulls.
We must be solvent.
Oh. Wait.
I can’t go to the window if I’m solvent?
&^@&*#
Quick! Flush all the fluffy stuff!
“What are they trying to accomplish?”
Cindy,
Spend, spend, spend. Otherwise, you face deportation.
The economy is crazy. Clarmont elementary school on Broad Street in downtown NYC has 12-1-08 as their cut off for the 2009 school year. They have 500 current students, are building a high school and have a huge waiting list and the school is only three years old. Tuition is 20K for preschool and 30K for elementary school. Assuming you sign your kid up at age three and tuition never rises by the time the kid graduates Clarmont HS you will have spent $400,000 on tuition to get your kid through HS and there is a huge waiting list!! and many parents have more than one kid in the school.
BC and Kettle – There may be a better spending spree this Christmas than previously expected now that we have had the elections and all…there is hope you know.
The economy is crazy. Clarmont elementary school on Broad Street in downtown NYC has 12-1-08 as their cut off for the 2009 school year. They have 500 current students, are building a high school and have a huge waiting list and the school is only three years old. Tuition is 20K for preschool and 30K for elementary school. Assuming you sign your kid up at age three and tuition never rises by the time the kid graduates Clarmont HS you will have spent $400,000 on tuition to get your kid through HS and there is a huge waiting list!! and many parents have more than one kid in the school.
Why crazy? Great business model.
500 students at 20K=10 Million in revenue with a huge profit margin.
John (77)-
One wonders what GNW had to do to get kicked out of the commercial paper program.
Can’t be good…
@84 – you guys got that I was being sarcastic – right?
56: ChiFi:
Incorrect-o
http://www10.americanexpress.com/sif/cda/page/0,1641,13550,00.asp
How is the credit limit on my Credit Card determined?
Your credit limit is determined based on your credit history and your income.
What is the credit limit on my Credit Card?
You can log on to ‘My Account’ or click here to access information on your Card account, including your credit limit information.
[snip]
Interest and Finance Charges
What is the interest rate on my card?
Please refer to your current monthly statement under the heading ‘Finance Charges’ for the current interest rate on your American Express Card. You may also click here to go to ‘Cards and Benefits’ on the site where you will find interest rates and other features on American Express Card products.
“there is hope you know.”
Cindy,
Many are hoping that the Dow will be back at 14K by X-Mas also. Hopefuly, they don’t wait up all night for Santa.
Cindy (84)-
We’ve sent Frank to the mall to count heads, but he keeps heading to the food court, trying to tell the cashiers they can be quants.
You guys Crack Me Up!
Clot [90],
I heard that to qualify as a cashier, at the mall, you have to be schooled in monte carlo simulations. Maybe Frank is on to something?
cindy BC
in jan after the Xmas sales figures come out, is when reality and some panic is going to start to set in amongst many people. This holiday season is going to burst many peoples bubble of a quick recession fixed by the new pres and TARP.
I wonder how many businesses fold after Xmas due to lack of holiday business?
Nom,
Seriously, how do we incorporate the blog as a bank? might as well get a few billion for the blog right?
haven’t read any comments yet, but Cindy, i hope you dont live in this town, or know anybody there
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/11/business/11home.html?hp=&adxnnl=1&adxnnlx=1226415993-t/I5h2UreVg2JiCIm327xg
what recession?
MOUNTAIN HOUSE, Calif. — This town, 59 feet above sea level, is the most underwater community in America.
This week, a real estate office in Tracy, Calif., near Mountain House, was advertising foreclosure sales.
Because of plunging home values, almost 90 percent of homeowners here owe more on their mortgages than their houses are worth, according to figures released Monday. That is the highest percentage in the country. The average homeowner in Mountain House is “underwater,” as it is known, by $122,000.
BC (92)-
“I heard that to qualify as a cashier, at the mall, you have to be schooled in monte carlo simulations.”
Also, taco arbitrage.
http://www.newsday.com/news/local/ny-lisusp1112161561nov11,0,1865952.story
Good to see DEVO has made a comeback.
(94) Yikes – No, I don’t know anyone there. Thanks for being concerned. Tracy is near Modesto and the rest of the over-built, speculative hub. All I can say is Yikes!
#85 MM I suspect their waiting list will see some cancellations this year
hey, how about a food court SIV??
Any bets on the first builder to fold?
vic (100)-
Technical Olympic already did.
Next? My vote is for Hovnanian.
Pot calling Kettle black.
“rapacious lending practices”
As is Bob Toll was not in on it.
http://philadelphia.bizjournals.com/philadelphia/stories/2008/11/10/daily15.html
Clot (101) –
Seriously, somebody should just put HOV out of its misery.
Disclaimer: I am short HOV.
103
HOV got into some unusual practices, even for a builder over the past few years.
They bought up a mid size plumbing company, I guess they were attempting to bring some of their sub contracting in house. They also bought a large warehouse near Bordentown, the thinking was that they were going to attempt to warehouse and distribute many of their supplies, giving them a greater economy of scale. Neither of these ideas have ever worked very well for any builder. Toll pulls off warehousing with middling success.
JS Hovanian, a smaller offshoot of the origianl K Hov (I think J & K were brothers) is doing fairly well. They scaled back significantly a couple of years ago, focusing on multi-family and the 55+ crowd, primarily in South Jersey.
Builders serve no purpose. Put them out of business. Heck my Moms old block all the houses were either Sears or Montgomery Ward houses you ordered via catalog and assembled your self or with help from local trades people. Heck the new first ladies mom used to work for Montgomery Ward maybe we can bring that back. We can just give the home numbers of the ex-home builder employees to sears by zip code so when I order up my house I can call the locals to put it together.
lets not forget about Toll:
Toll Brothers 4Q home-building revenue declines
Luxury homebuilder Toll Brothers Inc. said Tuesday its home building revenue dropped 41 percent in its fiscal fourth quarter as the financial crisis exacerbated ongoing weakness in the housing market.
Toll said preliminary home-building revenue declined to $691 million in the three months ended Oct. 31 from $1.17 billion, while backlog dropped 54 percent to $1.33 billion from $2.85 billion.
John 105,
I know why you dont like builders! You just want access to all of those mexican builders who you can then bring on board as top notch qaunts and traders dont you???? I mean you can find any qualified legal people to work at your hedge fund right?
(48) daddyo
We live in Harding which is next door to Madison. We are renting a very very average colonial, and the rent is not cheap, but the commute to Summit, Chatham, Madison is totally painless as it is all backroads. We also have a big yard, horses as neighbours and easy 287 access.
Our daughter goes to a preschool in Chatham, and yeah, there maybe some snobbery, but we just avoid it and laugh it off. In fact we go and shop in the other direction in randolph which is only 20 min in the other direction.
We just gravitate to the normal folks and my wife has in fact more friends here than I remember in CT or IL. Our neighbour is a realtor (the one that is not Buster or Da vinci the horses), and very down to earth. A little rough around the edges, which I like. He knows the area really well and I am sure he could help with rentals.
Don’t blow the area off just because it has some pretentious people around, it is beautiful and I am not sure that you will ever find immunity from that sector. Never thought that I would be saying that about NJ. Oh, Brett Favre moved in to somewhere in Harding if you are a Jets fan. Not sure how long he will be living here……
Tidbit, as to how history sometimes rhymes.
Back before the 1930s depression as John mentioned Sears or Montgomery Ward houses were ordered via catalog, and built by local tradesman.
Much of the profit in the kit home came from the mortgage financing that accompanied the sale. As the depression hit full force the New Deal mortgage programs through the Federal Housing Administration allowed home owners to refinance existing mortgages at a lower rate. By paying off their Montgomery Ward and Sears contracts, homeowners effectively cut the profits that allowed the company to pursue the business and by 1931 Montgomery stopped selling the home kits and Sears stopped a little later in 1940.
This time around the average Joe Sixpack cannot swing a hammer and has no idea on how to assemble anything bigger than a breadbox so the home builders brought in lots of cheap labor from Central America to do the hard labor.
Similar result will occur, as history is rhyming again.
As far as homebuilding goes, I have two relatives who can swing hammers. One is a home remodeler with his own business and the other a carpenter in NYC who built his own home upstate about 18 years ago.
The carpenter is employed full time and headed towards early retirement he will be about 50 when he retires and the other is struggling with his remodeling business.
If things get bad enough (depression), I may ante up and buy that acreage I always wanted and employ the two of them on building my dream home.
Keep it in the family I guess, I can swing a hammer too and would on weekends to keep the project going 7 days a week.
[48] daddyo
Janet Laing, in summit (Pru). Don’t have # here. No BS type, no hard sell. Wish I used her instead of the team in Brigadoon.
“resigned to snobbbery.” Avoid Summit. But I do find that they back right down when you get in their face after they nearly pick you off with the land rover. Something about all that money not being able to get them out of a richly deserved beating.
[51] Make
Funny. I thought of that too. It isn’t too far fetched.
Needless to say, you will need a general counsel who knows people at the Fed.
Com,112
All you need is a couple of million in Lobbying in Washington and an acquisition charter of a small failed bank from FDIC.
A few million in start up cost and whalla 250 Million TARP loan.
Take the money, Offer 10% CD’s, Leverage 30:1 and in 2yrs go back to the Window.
John Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 9:41 am
That thing is going down quicker than a 59st bridge trannie during fleet week.
JJ: Is that what Paul Simon meant about “Feelin’ Groovy”?
A perfect example of why ignorance is bliss!
Newly minted homeowner friend got into a fender bender and when discussing what the other guy wanted to settle it out of insurance I heard the following:
“I don’t have the $700 right now to pay him, I’ll go through insurance.”
How does this guy sleep at night?! WTF!?!
I wanted him to succeed and pull through but given the woefull undercapitalizaton at this point I am hoping that he gets put out his misery sooner rather than later.
T
John Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 10:12 am
http://www.newsday.com/news/local/ny-lisusp1112161561nov11,0,1865952.story
Good to see DEVO has made a comeback.
JJ: I think I spent the enitre year I was 13 years old listening to this song…..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bPzzvcYYugE
I know this blog is anti-housing but with the real possibility of US defaulting on it’s debt obligations, holding hard assets like a house is the only way to go in the future.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/105375-the-fed-money-machine-gears-up-to-print-trillions
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/
fail-one word for them all.
Excellent article. Scary stuff.
Clot,
Another slow day in NJ RE?
holding hard assets like a house is the only way to go in the future.
Without a doubt. However, better alterantive is shiny stuff.
Disclaimer. I sit where I stand.
spam spam bacon spam Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 10:00 am
56: ChiFi: Incorrect-o
monty: That is an Optima or Centurion card. While AXP offers that product, it is not the core of their business.
Anyone looking for a job? I can’t find people. Please help out.
http://newjersey.craigslist.org/sof/912971690.html
Clotpoll Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 9:58 am
John (77)-One wonders what GNW had to do to get kicked out of the commercial paper program.
Can’t be good…
clot: In order to issue CP, you need to be at least an A-1/P-1 short term credit (I forget, but it equates to a minimum of AA-). All it means is that GNW slipped below that rating, and thereofore became ineligible for the CP market government program.
I thought this blog was pro housing. I am pretty much sure everyone here would love to buy a dream home at a fair price, trouble is housing is still overpriced and in NJ/NY RE taxes are still skyhigh.
I do think it is silly to have TARP companies completely eliminate the bonus pool. I can see cutting out the cash part but since all their prior restricted stock and options are pretty much way underwater and will expire worthless unless they get to reload at the new lower prices they will be disincentized to work hard to get the stock price up. Even worse the people who told them they can’t have a bonuse will be the only ones profiting as their stock price goes up.
The Westfield Group (Garden State Plaza) and the Lowry family may be in trouble, I wonder if Frank Lowry will cut a deal and finger Phil Gramm.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/11/business/11ubs.html?_r=3&ref=business&oref=slogin&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
Then again in the age of no concequences I think not.
Frank (118)-
“Clot,
Another slow day in NJ RE?”
– Dude, why can’t you decide which side you are on? On one hand, you say that RE is going gangbusters based on your “analysis” of Hoboken. On the other hand, you seem to imply that RE is dead by mocking Clot.
You are possibly the most idiotic and irritating troll ever. However, you are effective. In spite of trying to restrain myself, I am unable to stop myself from feeding you.
anybody see toll and hov on cnbc last night? gasparino had a great line when the talk of housing stimulus got started: “Hey, I’ve got a plan– how about we just let prices fall to the level where middle class people can afford them. What do you think of that?”
another great moment was when gasparino got both of them to admit that there was a housing bubble. I distinctly remember toll saying back in 2005 that one day homeownership would only be for the wealthy like it is in parts of europe. buy now or be priced out forever
GS has been circled by sharks.
here we go… from the Washington Post:
“The government and mortgage industry — including federally run mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac — plan to announce today a new streamlined system for modifying the mortgages of hundreds of thousands of borrowers to avoid foreclosure, according to two people familiar with the matter.
A news conference involving government officials and industry representatives has been scheduled for 2 p.m. in Washington.
Under the program, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and other companies would move to modify mortgages for borrowers who are more than 90 days late on paying their loans and fit within certain formulas. That contrasts with the current system, where modifications are addressed on a case-by-case basis.
The goal of the new program would be for borrowers’ annual mortgage payment to equal 38 percent of annual income, the model used successfully by the government with IndyMac in California. The companies would do that by extending the loan term, reducing the interest rate and, if necessary, delaying payment on a part of the principal of the loan. If a borrower is able to meet payments for three months, the change becomes permanent.”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/11/11/AR2008111101178.html
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ez5robAWmu4
Ron Paul whipping O 5 months ago. Interesting stuff.
I love this guy and will give him my $2,300 in 2012
daddyo
Not sure what your budget is but I am renting a place in Summit and found the area near the train station to be more reasonable than I would have thought. A significant part of the housing surrounding the downtown area are rentals.
I don’t get the snob vibe from my neighbors, though I’m sure it exists in the more exclusive parts of town.
I like my current setup as it is cost effective and allows me to walk to the train.
It’s not that holding a house is your good hedge against massive inflation. It’s the fact that you borrowed money to get it and pay back the loan in funny money.
If you pay cash outright for the home, you’ll probably lose value relative to other things that are bought and sold on the global market like, gold, oil, and other commodities. Your cash in hand is better off in other assets.
In a hyperinflationairy scenario after the housing bubble, putting large sums of money down on a house isn’t a good hedge. Getting one of those FHA 3% down loans might be though.
0bama will pay your mortgage.
Fannie, Freddie Work on Mass Loan Modification Plan
Details to Be Unveiled by GSEs, Officials at 2 p.m. ET
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122641622440217445.html?mod=yahoo_hs&ru=yahoo
I feel like I am in a bad eposoide of the office. Lately these no name consulting firms call you out of blue and bug you. They when you feel bad you let them talk to you and when you ask even the most basic questions they don’t know, then when you ask for a demo they can’t do it and finally after they but you one hundred times to take you to lunch you say maybe and they come back with TGIF as they don’t have a budget to go to a real place. What the heck sales school did they go to?
Over the last hundred years homes have risen only at 3%, yet you borrow at 6% and pay RE taxes and upkeep. Even a rental property is risk as in the last 12 months rents have fallen but your mortgage stayed the same and taxes went up.
John,
Was the sales guy named Frank?
#128 skeptic: I am as you know, not happy about this.
I know this is asking a stupid question, but when you refer to snobbishness in Summit, what you mean? How does it manifest itself? Unfriendly neighbors? Unpleasant shopping experiences? People don’t wave hello?
126, skeptic
Hov is a scumbag. He sold all his shares in his company at peak and bought back in at the bottom. It smells like insider information to me. Nevertheless, now that he bought his company back, he wants big tax credits for homebuyers so he can unload all his crap inventory off on the general public at inflated prices to bring his stock back up. The fact that he sold off and bought back at pennies on the dollar that he sold for is the big insult. I could understand his position if he had never sold off in the first place. Instead, he took his money in 2005 and now he’s trying to take some more in 2009.
re: #133 John there is a Dale Carnegie school in Mumbai. No reason not to attend for a seminar.
my feeling today wil be a great day for stock market in short term
#47 Bi
Starbucks is going to get access to the Fed’s discount window soon. America runs on Starbucks. Without Starbucks, Americans will not have their caffeine fix and will be too tired to work. Starbucks is so big that if we allow them to fail, America may never have coffee again.
today’s top bears:
23 Clotpoll
18 Cindy
15 grim
13 John
7 make money
6 Sean
6 kettle1
6 BC Bob
5 Frank
5 chicagofinance
John Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 12:48 pm
Over the last hundred years homes have risen only at 3%, yet you borrow at 6% and pay RE taxes and upkeep. Even a rental property is risk as in the last 12 months rents have fallen but your mortgage stayed the same and taxes went up.
Historically speaking at made sens to buy in periods when house prices were lower and PITI/month were significantly lower than rents. E.G. in 1999 when I lived in Denver me and my roommate paid 525$ for two bedroom apartment. Two bedroom condos in better conditions than our apartments bedroom apartment were selling for 50K. (believe it or not). I looked into buying – neved did and very sorry about it but at the time I was in graduate school and not a permanent resident yet. With taxes (about 500$/year, plus condo’s fee’s – another 120$ monthly payments on this condo would be about 450$ at 7% interest.
Back in 1999 it made sense. Now people trying to sell thouse condos for 200-150K. (in 2005 my friend sold his for 220K).
Rent are probably in low 600$/month.
SO historically, not so long ago it made sense to buy even from pure financial perpective. Not right now, and not with NJ taxes.
“my feeling today wil be a great day for stock market in short term”
“today’s top bears”
bi,
You are f#c#ing hilarious. Not being sarcastic, really mean it.
No but now the dope wants me to attend his web cast of his IT product but they have audio problems so I get to look at show online and then have to dial in to hear the audio. He is demo-ing a tool that does not work.
stu Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 12:48 pm
John,
Was the sales guy named Frank?
“He is demo-ing a tool that does not work.”
Is his name Bergabe or Hammerin Hank?
Sounds like Tarp and all the numerous other liquidity programs, lifelines, freezes, etc..
not new, but an amusing take on some recent events…
‘
http://lolfed.com/2008/11/09/sherlock-holmes-and-the-case-of-the-diminishing-reserves/
[137] Hobo
Imagine a town full of young to middle-aged Leona Helmsleys
Explain to me how does this work – NJ owed 36 billions or so, and will be 4 billions short this year… NJ does no print money – how were they able to make it so far – will NJ have to sell 4 billion in state bonds???
bi (142)-
You have excellent counting skills. Congratulations.
It’s a good thing Bi made his latest call. I was contemplating putting a larger percentage of my 401K back to work on the long side. Now I know to wait a while longer.
stu (151)-
There can be no clearer signal that the bottom is about to be tested again.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081111/ap_on_bi_ge/meltdown_mortgage
So much to say…..where to begin….
I’m furious. That’s a start
“today’s top bears:”
I am a bull not a bear.
“You have excellent counting skills”
Clot,
He/she may be able to count. The more pertinent question, can he/she subtract?
14,000
-5,400
“I am a bull not a bear.”
Who am I, why am I here?
150#, i am trying to impress frank for the quant poistion.
bi,
It would be very helpful if you can post your thoughts before the market opens. Especially on days when you feel we are going to have a big rally or something.
Frankenstein (156)-
You are neither bull nor bear.
You are a steer.
bi,
quick, use your fancy quant script and tell me who the top posters were for the last month….
(in Spanish) and maybe frank will hire you.
bi (159)-
Just tell Frank you’re an illegal alien. That should seal the deal.
Would love to see a YouTube of la migra walking into a hedge fund.
160#, njrebear, i won’t be suprised to see a huge rally near close. otherwise, we will have a really ugly day.
CNBC pumping their “high-end call girl” special every five minutes. Seems about as sexy as a car wash.
The whole world is going down the tubes, and these guys try to sell T&A. Just another sign that we are deep into the end of days.
bi (164)-
Yeah. I guess all the pant-up buyers who’ll be in on that late rally are taking naps now.
#164 bi: I won’t be suprised to see a huge rally near close… Why???
otherwise, we will have a really ugly day…..Why ???
Thanks bi.
So huge rally or an ugly day. That was a very helpful tip.
Clot,
It’s nice their special is on Veteran’s Day too. Nothing like honoring the fallen doughboys than with specials about tail they could never afford.
167#, i see a few leading indicators are testing recent low. it will either break or trigger a huge rebound. i bet the later.
http://dealbreaker.com/2008/11/layoffs-watch-08-morgan-stanle-3.php
10% cut at MS?
This site used to be more interesting when it talked about the NJ housing market. It became less so when everybody started posting the contents of the Wall Street Journal in here every day.
was this posted yet???
Goldman urged bets against bonds it sold: paper
Tuesday November 11, 4:57 am ET
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/081111/business_us_goldman_bonds.html?.v=1
(Reuters) – Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:GS – News), which acted for the state of California in selling bonds, has urged some of its big clients to place investment bets against some of those bonds this year, the Los Angeles Times reported.
The paper said that Goldman declined to discuss the details of its trading strategy.
Goldman spokesman Michael DuVally told the paper that the firm was no longer giving the trading advice to clients. He declined to elaborate.
The newspaper said the company did not inform the office of California Treasurer Bill Lockyer that it was proposing a way for investment clients to profit from California’s economic downturn.
“It could exaggerate people’s worries about our credit,” the paper quoted Paul Rosenstiel, head of the public finance division of the treasurer’s office, as saying.
Tom [172],
You have the floor. Tell us about the NJ housing market.
come bi,
where is my count? Do i need to have Frank fire you as the hispanic day quant?
Tom well here is my NJ call;
2008 RE Values down 11%
2009 RE Values down 11%
2010 RE Values down 11%
2011 RE Values down 11%
2012 RE Values Flat
2013 RE Values Flat
2014 RE Values Flat
2015 Who Knows
Tom Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 1:49 pm
This site used to be more interesting when it talked about the NJ housing market. It became less so when everybody started posting the contents of the Wall Street Journal in here every day.
Hat tip to Crossing Wall Street:
Guess what stock was up over 430,000% in the last quarter of the 20th century, or nearly 40% a year?
Give up?
This site used to be more interesting when it talked about the NJ housing market. It became less so when everybody started posting the contents of the Wall Street Journal in here every day.
As goes the economy, so goes housing.
Pundits said that the economy was strong, and at worst we’d see a soft landing. We were told that NJ home prices were strong, and would never fall. NY jobs and the strong economy would make it so.
So here we are, with almost every goldilocks scenario proven wrong.
I don’t post anything that I don’t think is directly related to the housing market.
You might not think that some obscure CDO blowing up, or some trading desk layoffs in NYC have anything to do with the NJ housing market.
Believe me, they do.
Cash & Carry about to speak. Let’s see how far down he can drive to Dow.
As of right now, my advice to any homeowner with a Fannie/Freddie mortgage is to default.
its all interrelated!
btw.. EURUSD is down to 1.2544 – might be time to take a nice european vacation?
Tom,
We must fill the waiting period between the time California RE prices dropped 45% until NJ prices drop 45%. There are still plenty of RE related tidbits between the financial stories. Unfortunately, the impatient seem to be suffering with the lack of new news.
Clot(180)-
Is any conforming mortgage a GSE mortgage?
The answer?
“Guess what stock was up over 430,000% in the last quarter of the 20th century, or nearly 40% a year?”
Circuit City!
vic (183)-
No. However, Fannie has asked proprietary lenders to adopt their workout guidelines as their operating procedure.
general economic news is definitely related to local housing. the local housing market only really started to tank once wall st jobs started to get cut in a big way. so this year we will be down 10%, but next year will be worse (I think down 15%). perhaps a slower rate of descent after that in 2010 (5-10%) depending on how long the recession lasts.
Cash & Carry about to speak. Let’s see how far down he can drive to Dow.
Is that tie somehow an acknowledgment of his Goldman roots?
“You might not think that some obscure CDO blowing up, or some trading desk layoffs in NYC have anything to do with the NJ housing market.”
In addition to this, if you think currency derivatives have nothing to do with housing, go ask Mr Farkas.
Fannie still won’t reduce principal balances, though.
They go as far as tacking principal onto the back end and temporary forgiveness of principal payments.
Net effect? Sound and fury, signifying nothing.
just came across this
“Who “Controls” The 30 Companies In The Dow Industrial Index – 2008″
http://tinyurl.com/5s9agf
Intersting, to me anyway.
grim Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 2:04 pm
This site used to be more interesting when it talked about the NJ housing market. It became less so when everybody started posting the contents of the Wall Street Journal in here every day. As goes the economy, so goes housing. Pundits said that the economy was strong, and at worst we’d see a soft landing. We were told that NJ home prices were strong, and would never fall. NY jobs and the strong economy would make it so. So here we are, with almost every goldilocks scenario proven wrong.
I don’t post anything that I don’t think is directly related to the housing market. You might not think that some obscure CDO blowing up, or some trading desk layoffs in NYC have anything to do with the NJ housing market.
Believe me, they do.
grim: I think people are noting the cessation of the original content you used to produce. Since you have a life and get paid zero to give away your research to people, I would tell people to piss off…….
It looks like barclays pretty much controls the dow.
grim (187)-
Nobody else works the “dump” side of the pump-and-dump better.
#189 clot:Fannie still won’t reduce principal balances, though.
That make me glad.
“Since you have a life and get paid zero to give away your research to people, I would tell people to piss off…….”
Chi,
LMAO.
That is, only after Grim stands on his head and spits out gold coins.
What’s the general consensus now compared to our recent summer on this board. Are the more or less “For Sale” signs sitting outside on front lawns.
I can’t tell anymore because there were so many this summer.
#182 Stu: Perhaps real estate price declines in the NY metro area, is just background noise now, as they are only going one way;down.
No arguements on that point any more.
Furiously looking for the new streamline rules. I’d love to know what the qualifications are.
My gut feel?
Every loan gets recast out to 30 or 40 years, regardless of the remaining term.
Recast a loan with 25 years remaining back out to 40 years?
Cash cow for the investor.
Who wouldn’t allow that mod?
ben (196) –
hard to say, i know a couple were pulling back because the sell ratio was just too much for some to stomach ..
a friend of mine who bought his house in 2000 for 195k, is now dealing with the hideous commute to manhattan and wanted to sell his house, but was afraid that he couldn’t sell his house for more than 365k, and said he couldn’t pick up anything close to that up here..
i told him he was nuts to keep holding on, but hey, who am i to say.
25 to 40?
wow.. that would be rediculous.
I am glad to hear that they are talking principal deferral, and not reduction.
#176 John thanks. #174 Bob sorry I wasn’t trying to incite anything. I guess other people don’t feel the same way as me, but I have been considering buying in NJ for a while and I found the local stories and comp killers helpful, but there seems to be less of that on here now and more bashing wall street in general.
#178 Grim – agree. And dont get me wrong I’m not bashing the site, I enjoy reading almost every day. I’m just noting the NJ stuff is more compelling to me than the macro stuff. And I’ll shut my mouth now until I have something useful to add :)
Without principal reduction, tons of borrowers are still going to decline these workouts.
Or, they will accept the workouts and default on the new deals.
Biggest share holders of Dow companies as well as major stake holders in CME, JPM, GS, MS
AXA (Paris, France)
State Street Corporation
Vanguard Group, Inc. (The)
FMR LLC (Fidelity)
Davis Selected Advisers, LP
Barclays’s
note, Barclays has a majority stake in state street corporation.
so barclays runs the world now? who knew?
Or, they will accept the workouts and default on the new deals.
Why the heck not? Restarts the clock on the foreclosure process. In NJ, that means another rent-free year.
wait, if they accept the workouts, that would restart the clock?
i would assume that they would put different terms into the workouts to prevent situations of that nature?
How many of the borrowers who could get a workout will be able to document their income?
clot (208) –
does monopoly money count?
How many of the borrowers who could get a workout will be able to document their income?
How many borrowers know what a balloon payment is?
Shiela Bair not happy…says workout program “falls short”.
Guess she wants those principal writedowns bad.
#203 Tom: I believe your efforts and comemntary are quite useful, and I visit your site.
I guess as far as Beregn real etstae,a ll the peices are now in place, all the BS theories/exceuse for why prices will not fall have all been blown away.
The only missing peice now is many sellers are still in denial.
Until their asking prices reflect the reality of today, it is just a waiting game.
Who controls barclays?
after the recent infusion of cash from foriegn investors….
Sheikh Mansour Bin Zayed Al Nahyan
Stake after capital raising: 16%
Qatar Investment Authority
Stake after capital raising: 13%
Challenger (owned by emir of Qatar)
Stake after capital raising: 3%
China Development Bank
Stake after capital raising: 2%
Temasek
Stake after capital raising: 1.5%
Sumitomo Mitsui
Stake after capital raising: 1.3%
Abu Dhabi (UAE) and Qatar collectively have a 32% stake in barclays.
When can I expect a workout on the mortgage on my office building?
If I default on my home loan, will I not be able to get a workout on my commercial loan? I’d think that I’d get preferential terms, since I would’ve demonstrated my “need”.
Once again, gubmint and banks give the big f-you to people who play by the rules.
Without principal reductions, we’ve effectively created an entire population of Americans that will never be able to move out of their current residences. They’ll remain locked in their homes, immobile.
The fact that principal will be deferred (read: Balloon Payment), means that these borrowers will remain underwater. Upon sale, they’ll be responsible for the full amount.
Has there ever been such a perfect example of serfdom in America?
The serfs will blow up the whole deal by defaulting on the modified loans.
Oh, well, I suppose they’ve still got the option to default.
Beat me to it
Q: Who is eligible?
A: The highest risk borrower, who has missed three payments or more, owns and occupies the property as a primary residence, and has not filed bankruptcy. The loan is a Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae or portfolio loan with participating investors. To qualify for the streamlined modification, the borrower must certify that he or she experienced a hardship or change in financial circumstances, and did not purposely default to obtain a modification.
In another year or two, the social stigma attached to default will be totally gone.
Q: What is the benchmark ratio?
A: This is the first time the industry has agreed on an industry standard. The benchmark ratio for calculating the affordable payment is 38 percent of monthly gross household income. Once the affordable payment is determined, there are several steps the servicer can take to create that payment – extending the term, reducing the interest rate, and forbearing interest. In the event that the affordable payment is still beyond the borrower’s means, the borrower’s situation will be reviewed on a case-by-case basis using a cash flow budget.
This is purely anecdotal but there are 9 pages of foreclosures when you look up Freddie Mac’s list (Homesteps.com) this year, then there were at this time in the Spring. There used to be two to three pages and now there are nine. Additionally, the quality of the homes are significantly less subprime in nature.
http://www.homesteps.com/hm01_1featuresearch.htm
Interesting, so principal deferrals isn’t even part of the streamline program.
(219)-
Can “evidence of a hardship” mean that the borrower can now produce documentation of his actual income, and point to the difference between his current, real income and the falsified, inflated number that he gave when the loan was originated…and call that difference the proof he’s had a financial reversal?
Cramer now shilling for the new modification program.
Excuse me. I need to go outside and vomit.
How will you know when the market has bottomed?
Cramer gets canned!
From the FUHA:
Statement of FHFA Director
James B. Lockhart
wow,
I guess we should have bought that 500,000 over priced fixer in the glam train town in 2004, enjoyed a few years of high style, go through about 6 months of stress only to get bailed out of our mess in 2009.
Silly us.
I think I read somewhere near the end of the mortgage modification program that all homes modified with a single female under 40 and over 18 are required to work the pole every saturday night with free beer for every male taxpayer who resides on same block.
Love this part:
Q: How do borrowers complete the modification process?
A: Upon receiving the Modification Agreement from the servicer, the borrower signs it and returns it with the 1st payment at the modified terms along with income verification. Once the borrower makes three payments at the modified terms and the account is current as of day 90 of the modified plan, the modification is complete.
Clot,
Even if they default on the modified loan, the loan holder would get three more payments they might not have received in the past.
Not a bad way to squeeze three more payments out of a borrower and reduce losses a bit.
so this loan modification scheme seems premised on the concept that this is a temporary dip and house prices will recover at some point soon. otherwise, I can’t see the reason for agreeing to such a mod. all it does is buy you some time. but if the price never rises again to the amount you owe, you remain screwed
Jersey losing another junk peddler.
National Wholesale Liquidators Files for Bankruptcy Protection
National Wholesale Liquidators Inc., a family-owned discount retailer, sought bankruptcy protection from creditors without giving a reason.
The company, based in West Hempstead, New York listed assets and debt of $100 million to $500 million each in Chapter 11 documents filed yesterday in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Wilmington, Delaware.
grim,
3 reduced payments for an additional year of free rent isnt a bad deal for the home owner(renter) either….
EVERYBODY WINS!!!!!
clot:
Assuming I have a client that is credit worthy, what are 15-y fixed rates on a conforming loan with about 40% LTV…..
#233 skeptic:house prices will recover at some point soon.
Depends on how you define soon, after the last housing bust, it took 10 years for prices to return to their peak before the bust.
#219 grim:the borrower must certify that he or she experienced a hardship or change…..
Certify, or Certi-lie?
How about requiring certified proof!!!!
I remember when I was looking for my house the realtor said…” hey I can remember home owners writing checks at the closing…” It seemed like an innocent comment, and of course I thought….wow…that would s uck….but damn if that is not probable now. Note to self: ALWAYS LISTEN TO INNOCENT OFF HAND COMMENTS they tend to be the most prescient thoughts.
227….Cramer ‘Canned’ or better yet….CANED.
Gov’t f everyone who plays by the rules. If you wanna win you gotta be part of the masses.
Thanks for all the thoughts on the Summit area and the realtor recommendation, we’ll look her up. We will take a look at Harding, that was definitely not on our radar, but sounds just about right.
Snobbishness is hard to point out directly, but in the famous words of Justice Stewart, “I know it when I see it.”
daddyo,
Give a look at Short Hills Terrace on Morris Turnpike. I rented an apt there years back. Don’t need a realtor then, and your kids are in great school. I don’t know if they have appartments big enough for what you’re looking for, but might be worth a thought. There were some families with kids there when I was renting, probably wanted to send their kids to a top high school but couldn’t afford the overpriced houses. Won’t have to deal with snobbery so much, because all the folks around you are renting too.
Hello Mr. KashKari,
I’m a waiter at the route 9 diner in New Jersey. My income went down from around 175K to 45K as people no longer go out to eat and now even tip less. In 2005 I said I made 175K and it was mostly in cash as tips from people who took out Helocs and now due to the credit crunch these people(my customers) stopped coming to my dinner.
Since I only make $3,750 per month I can only afford to make my 38% PMNT OF $1,425.
I have enclosed a check for this amount. I love my home and plan to stay here for the remainder of my life.
I love this country and I voted for Bush both times. Thanks fo reverything.
Sincerely
Broke NJ resident/waiter
How about requiring certified proof!!!!
That’s gonna slow down the process. We don’t want that.
Can someone give me some history on this listing in Mendham. Like orig asking price, last sale, etc. Thanks all. MLS 2573388
Mctc,
4 Westminster, Mendham Twp.
Purchased: 8/17/1993
Purchase Price: $710,000
MLS# 2573388 (No prior listings)
Listed: 9/4/2008
List Price: $1,175,000
Current Price: $1,050,000
Interesting case, adjusted for inflation (CPI), the property value should be around $1.07m.
15 years of ownership and no real appreciation?
Looking at the pics, the price doesn’t seem all that bad.
thks grim
I didn’t think it was possible, but it looks like Bi somehow got his call wrong again.
“i won’t be suprised to see a huge rally near close. otherwise, we will have a really ugly day.”
Neither a huge rally nor a really ugly day occurred. It looks to me like the market is currently exactly where it was when he made his brave call. The market did almost get to even immediately after his call. I guess he has the same track record as all of the other paid pundits. The call was correct, it was the timing that was off.
This is an interesting take on this crisis. I tend to agree with it too. Worth a read. Amidst all the gloom and doom, definitely a silver lining.
” I think there’s a much broader and possibly hugely beneficial shift taking place. The other day I was interviewing someone who runs a company that does some very unusual work — let’s call it “inventing” for now — and he noted that one research group he was putting together was suddenly able to hire a bunch of recently unemployed Wall Street “quants” who are more qualified than his typical applicant.
I can’t say anything specific about this company (we’ll be writing about it in depth later), but suffice it to say that many of its products could have broad and deep social benefits.
I can think of a lot of other fields that stand to benefit from all the human capital that is currently sloshing out of finance and into other realms: technology in general, energy in particular, and alternative energy in super-particular; health care; research science; and, yes, education. Wouldn’t that be ironic? ”
http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/11/10/will-the-wall-street-storm-have-a-giant-silver-lining/
Evryone should go out a buy a home now and defualt on pmnts wait three months and apply for a mod.
252 make-
suggestions like yours (and a few others on here today) ignore the changed mortgage lending landscape:
1) it’s much harder to get a no-doc/Alt-A loan
2) it’s much harder to get a loan on a $500k house with only $80k/yr income
3) all of these modification programs specifically state that the default must not be ‘intentional’… the default must be due to unforeseen circumstances, medical bills, job loss, salary cut, etc
so encouraging people to go out and buy a house that’s too expensive for their budget isn’t the point. that horse has already left the barn.
i know you are probably speaking from angst and frustration, and also with “tongue in cheek”
Modifications, bailouts, lifelines, alphabet soup, liquidity vehicles, etc.. It’s gets too confusing. Why don’t we just borrow the alerts/threat levels from Homeland Security.
Green- Rates are going lower, liquidity is injected, fiscal stimulus
Blue- BLS, via Birth/Death continues to show an increase in financial and construction jobs
Yellow- Chuck Prince has been sighted taking dancing lessons
Orange- A meeting is arranged between Prudential and King Henry. OOPS, forgot, Lloyd Blankfein is the only WS honcho to attend. Any deal will prove to be a windfall for taxpayers.
Red- Baa’s trade at a 600-700 basis point spread to Treasuries.
The PPT is getting really embarrassing now. I am thinking their bonuses might get cut this year.
“Yellow- Chuck Prince has been sighted taking dancing lessons”
– LOL!!
I’m not sure if rates are really going lower. Whenever I price up a mortgage (just for kicks), it turns out those rates require substantial upfronts (5-8% in some cases) to buy them down to the advertised “low” levels.
Maybe it’s just the way I’m running the mortgage apps online.
why doesn’t the government just offer homebuyers a $50,000 credit towards their purchase… and the program goes for 1 year. this will put urgency into buyers, and also into sellers.
sellers will be falling all over themselves to sell during this one year period, as it means their buyer will be eligible for the credit. so if that means they have to reduce their listing price, they’ll do it.
oh, i forgot, the government wouldn’t want to do anything that might actually benefit the citizenry.
Randy,
Something similar, incentives, will be forthcoming.
#259 BC BoB:Something similar, incentives, will be forthcoming.
And they will nto help, just more manipualtion that will drive prices down even further.
As some sellers will jack up their already over inflated price by another 50k, thus creating more distortion, and ultimatley collapse.
OT….
Businessweek posted best cities to raise children in by state. Winner is Edison???
New Jersey
Edison
Nearest city: Newark
Population: 101,420
Median household income: $96,640
Edison, which has one of the largest Indian populations in the nation, is an affordable city with good schools and low crime.
Runners-up:
Clifton
Union
the buyer incentives for housing will be like the buyer incentives currently being offerred for big SUVs— great if you were already intent on buying, but otherwise not sufficient to change your mind.
as others have said, the bloom is off the rose on housing. gov’t can’t replicate the bubble mindset with incentives.
Why would you want to create insentive for buyers – the ones who refused to buy houses are the ones who created this crisis in the furst place!!!
I would say – Raise taxes on -non-home-owners!!!
Make them pay additional 10% tax untill they do buy a house.
while we are at it lets add 10K surcharge to buying a home – paid buy buyer, scheduled to kick in let’s say 2011 – that will add more urgency.
Remember – if you do not own a house – you are anti-american.
Bloodbath again here today. Not a good day to work on a website. Headcount cut about 30%.
Where?
“Where?”
Frank,
The mall.
BB [#261] Says: … Edison??
I think North Edison seems to have decent schools and is close to major highways and to public transport (South Edison has all these except for the good schools). I am from India, so the Indian shops, etc., are good for me :)
However, keep in mind, the ranking was based on “affordability,” so Millburn, Summit, Livingston, etc., are toast in that ranking.
S
BC,
Instead of posting stupid answers, how about helping find me some employees, with all this recession talk there are no people for decent jobs.
I wonder where the state will get the money to make up these tax shortfalls? I have a feeling everyone on this site is about to have their wealth redistributed to help make up for the lost funding.
[261,267]
At the risk of being called biased, the writer of that article was indian and seemed to pick towns with indian populations. I also questioned Edison but don’t know enough about it except that it has a large indian population. Malden, Mass. was also picked, a curious choice because it is seedy, run-down, and definitely not a good choice for child-raising, but when I noticed the trend, it became clear that the article was written for those seeking “diversity” as a major factor. Malden certainly has that.
Commenters made the same observations about other towns on the list; I don’t know so I had to accept them, and the trend became clear that the writer was writing about towns that were good for non-white, or “ethnic” families of limited means to raise children. This was also informed by the study methodology that would include an Edison but exclude a Cranford, for example.
[263] Al,
I own a house. But according to my liberal friends, I am anti-american because I don’t want to pay “my fair share” in taxes, and have openly advocated taking capital offshore.
Nom,
You sound like either a commie or an elitist!
:P
Retail Holiday Job Applications Surging
Chances of getting hired are slimmer than getting accepted at an Ivy League School
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27665672/
chi (236)-
5.9% to 6.2%, depending on lender & final terms.
sx (239)-
I have a closing tomorrow where my client, the seller, is bringing a big, fat check.
And he’s glad it’s not even bigger.
275…..Geezus.
[272] stu
Used to be a commie. Now an elitist.
Mom wants me to be a commie again.
[272] stu
Speaking of elitist, I was in Montclair on Sunday. Pretty nice area, that. Not too many commies living in large houses on leafy lanes.
nice site
http://www.ushousingmeltdown.org
my zip 08807 is still 26% overvalued
I may be a commie….but will someone please stop Nancy Pelosi?
278 Nom – And you didn’t call or stop by?
Do they still count as commies if they’re willing to pony up $30k+/year in property taxes?
# Frank Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 6:00 pm
BC,
Instead of posting stupid answers, how about helping find me some employees, with all this recession talk there are no people for decent jobs.
Frank – I am still waiting on the details for that job you could not fill….
281…no, just suckers….
You go girl!
—————
Singer Melissa Etheridge rails against the passage of the gay-marriage ban in California—and she won’t be paying the state a dime.
Okay. So Prop 8 passed. Alright, I get it. 51% of you think that I am a second class citizen. Alright then. So my wife, uh I mean, roommate? Girlfriend? Special lady friend? You are gonna have to help me here because I am not sure what to call her now. Anyways, she and I are not allowed the same right under the state constitution as any other citizen. Okay, so I am taking that to mean I do not have to pay my state taxes because I am not a full citizen. I mean that would just be wrong, to make someone pay taxes and not give them the same rights, sounds sort of like that taxation without representation thing from the history books.
Okay, cool I don’t mean to get too personal here but there is a lot I can do with the extra half a million dollars that I will be keeping instead of handing it over to the state of California. Oh, and I am sure Ellen will be a little excited to keep her bazillion bucks that she pays in taxes too. Wow, come to think of it, there are quite a few of us fortunate gay folks that will be having some extra cash this year. What recession? We’re gay! I am sure there will be a little box on the tax forms now single, married, divorced, gay, check here if you are gay, yeah, that’s not so bad. Of course all of the waiters and hairdressers and UPS workers and gym teachers and such, they won’t have to pay their taxes either.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2008-11-06/you-can-forget-my-taxes/
[281]
it was my first venture into montclair.
and besides, I don’t know where you live.
I guess I could have looked for the big UF flag.
For those in the area with younguns, Lil Gator highly recommends this holiday treat. He saw it last year in the PRM and plans to go again this year in NYC:
Holiday House Party with Dan Zanes and Friends
Warm up the winter holidays with Grammy Award® winner, former Del Fuego band member and beloved Brooklynite Dan Zanes. When Dan invites his friends over for a jam session, a traditional holiday season song becomes a terrific excuse to tap dance, Arabic beats provide the backdrop for a Lunar New Year sing-a-long, and the stage erupts with disco Hanukah songs and high octane Mexican fiddling. No matter what instrument he plays, be it banjo, cuatro or electric guitar, Dan has a magical knack for making kids and parents smile and sing together, tickling everyone’s musical taste buds like no other. So invite your Jewish uncle Saul, your half-Irish niece Carol and all your friends and family from near and far to make this all-ages holiday celebration a new family tradition!
Musical artists joining Dan in HOLIDAY HOUSE PARTY WITH DAN ZANES AND FRIENDS include Palestinian Arabic-jazz bazuq player Tareq Abboushi, drummer Colin Brooks, English designer and director Julian Crouch, Mexican guitarist and vocalist Sonia de los Santos, accordionist/saxophonist John Foti, renowned tap dancer Derick K. Grant with his tap dancing son and daughter Kaleo and Lulu Grant, bass player Saskia Sunshine Lane, fiddler/trumpeter Elena Moon Park, founder of the ground breaking neo-Hasidic ensemble Pharoah’s Daughter, vocalist Basya Schecter, Palestinian percussionist/composer Zafer Tawil, and the latest Mariachi sensations from Veracruz, Mexico, the Villa-Lobos Brothers.
http://www.newvictory.org/show.m?showID=1030000
285 – At the rate people Google here, I expect that half of the regulars know exactly where we live.
No UF flags adorn the abode, but on a Saturday during football season, you can find Lil Gator properly attired.
#279 SG My zip 07661 is 38% overvalued as of 2005 prices.
281
On the train now…
Yes, because the commies believed in taxes (and inflation) to reduce wealth. Lenin (a lawyer by training) said precisely that.
Remember it is now anti-american to avoid taxation. The logic of Learned Hand in the seminal decision of gregory v. Helvering is quaintly unpatriotic. Consider that congress wants to codify the economic substance doctrine, which will make any transaction void (for tax purposes) if a tax savings would result unless there was a substantial business purpose for the transaction. No, it is the happy comrade taxpayer that is a patriot and the churlish running dog capitalist protester that is in need of re-education.
No further proof of this titanic shift was needed after a new poll said, for the first time in memory, that americans were content with the prospect of one party rule. The GOP is a permanent minority now.
Montclair 07042 – Overvalued 29%
Upper Montclair 07043 – Overvalued 38%
What the hell happened in the bottom of the 9th? Akin to the All-Star game in 2002, game called?
“John Thain, the chief executive of securities firm Merrill Lynch, said Tuesday morning that the global economy was seriously stalled and would not bounce back quickly, and likened the current environment to the period that ushered in the Great Depression.”
“In his comments at Merrill Lynch’s banking and financial services conference in New York, Mr. Thain said one had to look back to the 1929 period “to see the kind of slowdown we’re experiencing now,” Reuters reported. “It is not like ‘87, it is not like ‘98, it is not like 2001,” he said.”
http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/11/11/merrill-chief-sees-shades-of-1929/
“bi Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 1:39 pm
160#, njrebear, i won’t be suprised to see a huge rally near close. otherwise, we will have a really ugly day.”
Wrong on both counts, actually.
Gator no longer has to worry about potential layoffs or how to pay her massive 2008 Montclair tax bill. Mr. Wellington Scholes has just emailed her about a confirmable $1,200,000 bank draft that is waiting for her at Fed Ex in West Africa.
I get almost as many of these as regular mail these days. Sheesh.
289 Nom – The well intentioned commies here are well on their way to chasing the less fortunates out of town. Hard to keep an affordable rental as a landlord when your taxes alone are approaching 15k/year on a non-luxurious building.
You know that Stu and I count as conservatives here.
242
I’d second Harding. It’s absolutely beautiful. I would love to live in Harding, but it’s very pricey. Taxes/Income ratio best in NJ.
# Jersey Jim Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 6:01 pm
I wonder where the state will get the money to make up these tax shortfalls? I have a feeling everyone on this site is about to have their wealth redistributed to help make up for the lost funding.
I think I would rather “redistribute” my state of residence… not that I have a house to sell…
More seriously I think that what everybody in priivate sector is asking themselves right now – HOW will NJ get out of current budget troubles?? Default or Taxation?
Can they even sell assets to get 36 billion dollars – I guess we will see an eBay item# 2212324252 – State of NJ!!!
gator
have you seen 26 pleasant ave?
(4 year old short sale, buyer responsible for c/o)
http://newmls.gsmls.com/public/show_public_report_rpt.do?report=clientfull&Id=37957818_6134
al
Maybe PA will buy it? in elementary school, we were taught that new jersey was originally part of Pennsylvania, but the king took it away so we would be land-locked ’cause he hated William Penn so much.
…that would be cool… and nj would get back all the pharma that moved to pa…
NJ will be bailed out when the federal gov ezpands TARP or(insert name of bailout package here) to states. Its not a question of if, but when. CA is up first, NJ may be second.
Alia 297 – Hadn’t seen that one because the bottom of my search parameters was set at 450k. Will have to lower that, as prices continue to drop :)
“I am still waiting on the details for that job you could not fill….”
I posted it above.
i get it now… No company can ever be allowed to fail again, because then someone will be on the hook for all of that Credit Default Swap exposure. and nobody has the money to pay all of that which they underwrote.
so, nobody will be allowed to go bankrupt ever again.
instead, why don’t we just invalidate the entire stinkpile known as CDS?
http://www.clevelandcitycouncil.org/Home/News/November102008/tabid/581/Default.aspx
Cleveland Foreclosure Impact
297….what an ugly home.
286….Dan is amazing….we have pictures of my little one…(then 3) with he and his really great original line-up on stage…with Dan singing to my little girl as she is in my arms. It blew her mind. I changed a broken guitar string for him once on the fly during a show in Maplewood. Since then we have seen him several times….
randy (301)-
Pitiful, isn’t it?
This is really the powers that be- through the gubmint- deliberately gunning to break the average American and turn us all into slaves.
Too bad we are are complying…willingly.
I played nothing but the Pistols, Clash and DKs for my two little ones as they grew up.
Did I do something wrong?
Once the gubmint has identified people who can be neutralized through bailouts and giveaways, they will sedate them with largesse, then quietly move to take away privileges and freedoms while the welfare pigs swill at the trough.
306….Sweet. I am a musician (former pro…now just a hobby) and found Dan’s music to be great….whenever a kid gets into a band they want to hear it ALL OF THE TIME….my kid also like LUNA…and Hannah Montana….I learned several Hannah songs on the guitar and she sings into a mike….kind of fun.
Hey whatever happened to NJ Patient….MIA?
Patient is behind enemy lines. Can’t talk, because he’s involved in some of this crazy Klink/Bergabe stuff. He reached out to me a few weeks back to tell me all is OK. Says he lurks here.
Patient, if you’re lurking…regards. If you can get off a clean head shot at Klink or Bergabe, you should take it.
clot, 306
You forgot: Violent Femmes, Disturbed, Lords of Acid and Ozzy.
sl
Now both the kids are into Mozart, White Stripes and Bob Mould.
Their piano teacher thinks they’ve both lost their minds. She’s such a stiff.
sl (311)-
Lately, I forget a lot. Kids did always like XTC for a sort of pop change of pace. Daughter used to play Mayor of Simpleton over and over.
Since I started coming here…..I now hate the government….I blame so of you for that…..LMAO
so=Some
sl-
You listen to Lords of Acid in the ER? Plasmatics?
My kid is four and has a hello kitty stratocaster….that I let her play through a blackface fender pro reverb….she digs it….
sx (317)-
She figure out how to make it feed back yet?
Hey 3b,
I’m considering buying in River Edge. When was the last reval? If I buy and the purchase price is less than the assessed value, can I file an appeal to have my taxes lowered? Thanks for the info.
# bi Says:
November 11th, 2008 at 12:59 pm
my feeling today wil be a great day for stock market in short term
as usual, fail
i am curious to hear more about NOT putting down more than 20% on a house. our plan for the longest time has been to put down 40%.
clot 316,
well… on the MP3 player… I can’t see how “Spank My Booty” or “Rubber Doll” or “Pu$$y” is gonna go over too well with cardiac patients….
Plasmatics…hmm… nope guess you’ll have to send a sample…
sl
318….she has the head bob down great….if it is feedback she wants I can always plug here into a 1979 Marshall JMP I have.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W1ef3Ag93M8
#317 Wow does her amp go to 11?
In the past couple of years, Toll and his deputies have begun analyzing European housing data to see if they hold any lessons for a maturing American housing market. Toll has been talking up the research to stock analysts and the financial press for the past year. His conclusions carry a whiff of new-paradigm thinking, but he nevertheless seems convinced that Europe’s present-day reality is America’s destiny. I asked Toll what our children – my kids are both under 8, I told him – would be paying when they’re ready to buy. “They’re going to live with us until they’re 40,” Toll said matter-of-factly. “And when they have their second kid, then we’ll finally kick them out and make them pay for the house that we paid for. And that house will cost them 45 to 50 percent of their income.”
I grew alarmed. Was he kidding? He assured me he was not. “It’s all just logic,” Toll said. “In Britain you pay seven times your annual income for a home; in the U.S. you pay three and a half.” The British get 330 square feet, per person, in their homes; in the U.S., we get 750 square feet. Not only does Toll say he believes the next generation of buyers will be paying twice as much of their annual incomes; in terms of space, he also seems to think they’re going to get only half as much. “And that average, million-dollar insane home in the burbs? It’s going to be $4 million.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/16/magazine/16brothers.html?scp=2&sq=%22bob%20toll%22&st=cse
Daddyo:
Sorry if you’ve already bought a place in Harding… The town IS beautiful, but the locals quite snobbish, and probably 75% of the kids go to the private schools – so the public one (elementary only – they ship away the middle/high) is disproportionately lower income.
You may want to look at New Providence/Berkeley Heights – prices went up less during the bubble, and are now dropping more than in Summit as plenty of former Bell Labs guys have to move out. Lots of houses for rent for the same reason. Schools are very good (the same Bell Labs heritage), commute to Summit 5-10 min. depending where.
#319 RU: The last reval was done in 2005 at the peak of the now busted housing bubble. Yes you can file a tax appeal.
Just so you know, in a few short years River Edge went from having one of the lowest property taxes in Bergen Co, to the 3rd highest.
And there is no end to the increases in sight.
Thanks 3b. I’ll keep that in mind. I’m looking in that area but either the house prices in certain towns still haven’t dropped like they should or the taxes are extremely high with crappy school systems.