“We’re in for a pretty serious recession”

From Bloomberg:

U.S. Slump May Be Longest in Decades as Growth Fell Off `Cliff’

The U.S. downturn will be the longest in three decades, and the drought in consumer spending may be the worst ever, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

The implosion of credit markets last month will cause the economy to shrink at a 3 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter and decline at a 1.5 percent pace in the first three months of 2009, according to the median estimate of 59 economists surveyed Nov. 3 to Nov. 11. Following last quarter’s 0.3 percent drop, the slump would be the longest since 1974-75.

“The economy fell off a cliff in October,” said Richard Berner, co-head of global economics at Morgan Stanley in New York. “We had a huge financial shock that intensified the credit crunch and triggered a sharp downturn.”

Declines in household spending will extend into next year as the worst financial crisis in seven decades forces employers to keep cutting payrolls on top of the 1.2 million jobs already lost this year. President-elect Barack Obama has said the U.S. needs a second economic stimulus package “sooner rather than later.”

The pace of contraction this quarter would be the worst since 1990. Berner is among economists projecting the current slump will also be the most serious in a quarter century as the lack of credit causes a reinforcing, vicious circle of declines in confidence, spending and hiring.

“All of these adverse feedback loops are working to reinforce the downturn,” he said. “At the moment, it looks like the deepest U.S. recession since ’81.”

Some members of the group that officially determines when U.S. contractions begin and end are even more pessimistic.

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

373 Responses to “We’re in for a pretty serious recession”

  1. bairen says:

    I thought NJ’s economy has been contracting for longer than that? At least from talking with friends/family/coworkers sine Jan or Feb of this year.

    On the bright side here’s a potential buyer for Ocean County. They are literally going underwater and are looking for a new country.

    http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/asiapcf/11/11/maldives.president/index.html

  2. DL says:

    In an effrot to stay on topic:
    “Mortgage companies lost an average of $560 on every loan they originated in 2007, compared with $510 per loan in 2006, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s annual cost study. Though loan-origination and ancillary fees grew on a per-loan basis, they did not keep pace with increases in production operating expenses, which grew 7 percent year over year, to $3,663 per loan.”
    http://www.philly.com/inquirer/columnists/al_heavens/20081109_On_the_House__Tough_times_for_lenders.html

  3. DL says:

    I don’t think the old tried and true “prime the pump” perscription of gov’t spending will get us out of this recession.

  4. Cindy says:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=a79zKoOnk5hY&refer=economy

    Fed Said to Seek Lead on Regulating Credit-Swap Clearinghouse

    “The main concern is systemic risk and that’s much more in the Fed’s wheelhouse than the SEC or CFTC,” said Craig Pirrong, a financial professor at the University of Houston who studies future markets. “The Fed is the natural place for it to go.”

    The Fed has been pushing the industry to form a clearinghouse that would absorb losses should a market maker default. Regulators stepped up their efforts after the failure of Lehman Brother’s Holding Inc. in September and the near-collapse of American International Group Inc. The New York Fed has been meeting with groups including CME Group Inc., and International Exchange Inc. and NYSE Euronet to press them to accelerate the process.”

  5. Cindy says:

    Grim – I have been searching Bloomberg this AM trying to find the interview that I caught only a glimpse of yesterday.

    This person was against the new modifications saying it was just another case of “a rolling loan gathers no moss.” I think he was for the HOLC model.

    He pointed out that once we nationalized underwriting, we essentially made it impossible for local institutions to track the true value of their market.

    Can’t find the interview – but I did find the CDS article….

  6. victorian says:

    Nice!

    “Like hyenas trying to steal the kill from a lion, the mere scent of this enormous pile of loot starts attracts the scavengers. They cannot help themselves, for it is their essence, and who they are.

    Like the dreaded 17 year locust, Lobbyists too, are swarming the capital, consuming everything in their path. Never before has a trillion dollars been authorized so quickly. Never before has so much money been spent with so little oversight, controls, or transparency. Now, on top of the negligent manner in which this money has been thrown about, we have the latest jackals attracted by the scent.”

    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/why-bailouts-attract-handout-seekers/

  7. Cindy says:

    (6) Vic – Nice recap of all that’s going on…

  8. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    ING Posts First Loss, May Have Additional Writedowns

    ING Groep NV, the financial-services firm that got a 10 billion-euro ($12.6 billion) lifeline from the Netherlands last month, said writedowns amounted to 1.51 billion euros in the third quarter and may extend through year end.

    The loss for the quarter ended Sept. 30, the first since the company was created in 1991, was 478 million euros, or 22 cents a share, it said today in a statement.

  9. gary says:

    A realtor told me that sub-prime is contained; I just want verify if that is indeed the case?

  10. BC Bob says:

    “Scott Minerd, the chief investment officer for fixed income at Guggenheim Partners, a Los Angeles money manager, estimates that total Treasury borrowing for fiscal 2009 will total $1.5 trillion-$2 trillion. That was based on $700 billion for TARP, a $500 billion-$750 billion “cyclical deficit,” an additional $500 billion stimulus program and some uncertain amount for the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.”

    “Minerd doubts that private savings in the U.S. and foreign purchases of Treasury debt will be sufficient to meet those government cash requirements. That leaves the Fed to take up the slack; that is, monetization of the debt.”

    “Cutting through the technical jargon, the yield curve and the credit-default swaps market both indicate the markets are exacting a greater cost to lend to Uncle Sam. And it’s not because of anticipated recovery, which would reduce, not increase, the cost of insuring Treasury debt against default.”

    “All of which suggests America’s credit line has its limits.”

    http://online.barrons.com/article/SB122633310980913759.html

  11. BC Bob says:

    Gary [9],

    David Berkowitz is also contained.

  12. gary says:

    BC Bob,

    I remember the Summer of Sam vividly, does that make me old?

  13. BC Bob says:

    Gary [12],

    It was a wild summer.

  14. Rich In NNJ says:

    Declines in household spending will extend into next year as the worst financial crisis in seven decades forces employers to keep cutting payrolls on top of the 1.2 million jobs already lost this year.

    I doubt it.
    Frank has a open headcount.
    That should alleviate all concern because if that doesn’t point to a continuing strong economy… well, then I don’t know what does.

  15. Rich In NNJ says:

    I recall Summer of Sam as well.
    Running home at night from my friends house as a moving target is hard to hit.
    Why I thought Sam would travel to the burbs of Jersey is beyond me.
    Twas the time of Starsky & Hutch, Fleetwood Mac and bad clothes.

  16. BC Bob says:

    Rich[14],

    They are all at the malls lining up for jobs. They certainly are not at Circuit City or Best Buy.

    NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Calling this the most difficult climate it has ever seen, Best Buy (BBY:Best Buy Co., Inc
    BBY 23.88, -1.33, -5.3%) said Wednesday that falling consumer spending has caused it to lower earnings forecasts. Best Buy sees same-store sales for the four months remaining in its 2009 fiscal year dropping by as much as 5% to 15% and a same-store sales decline for the full year in the 1% to 8% range. At the high end, it sees annual revenue of $45.5 billion and annual earnings per share of $2.90. The low end is for revenue of $43.7 billion and earnings per share of $2.30. The company previously had provided earnings guidance of $3.25 to $3.40 a share for fiscal 2009, including an annual same-store sales gain of approximately 2% to 3%. Best Buy shares fell 5% Tuesday to $23.88.

  17. Fiddy Cents on the Dollar says:

    Another AIG “conference” this time at the Hilton Squaw Peak Resort in Phoenix. Last week they spent another $300K, and did it in steath mode.

    This crap from AIG has reached assinine proportions. Before they get another dime of taxpayer money….someone must be held accountable!

    http://www.walletpop.com/blog/2008/11/11/aig-party-watch-this-time-a-resort-in-phoenix/

  18. gary says:

    Strictly ancedotal but I was at Garden State Plaza this past weekend and it was so packed that I had to park in an a area away from the mall that I never had to park before. In fact, they were handing out numbers in the childrens shoes section of Nordstrom and taking people in order. I’ve never seen anything like this. I can’t quite explain it.

  19. John says:

    Looks like an auto bailout. JPM put a buy on the bonds yesterday. I did not have the guts as lately I am wimpy wimpy wimpy. But yesterday I saw a 40K 30 year 8% Ford bond on my screen at .25 cents on a dollar and I was scared like a little baby to hit the buy button for a lousy 10k, would have been 32% interest for 30 years if they did not go under. In a risk reward model I should have bought, Ford has enough money now to make it to early 2010 and I would gets cents on a dollar in bankruptcy. But like everyone one else we are more more worried about the risk verus the reward. That is also the problem with housing no one wants to buy as they are more concerned about losing money than making money.

  20. kettle1 says:

    GM’s market Cap is about $1.7 billion yet they are spending more then 2 billion PER MONTH.

    So can we just make it official and say that GM is an official federal government jobs program. Maybe we can repurpose all of those workers and start building ski lodges and other nifty things that people may actually want instead of a product that has little demand, like during the new deal jobs program?

  21. kettle1 says:

    gary,

    the band played on the deck of the titanic until their feet got wet……

  22. John says:

    I used to live a few blocks from Elphas Disco in Bayside where Son of Sam did one of his last killings. They later made it into a tony romas and the ribs were real good but it always felt creepy eating there. However my love of ribs overshadowed the creepiness factor.

  23. Cindy says:

    http://investorsbusinessdaily.com/editorial/poll.asp

    Gary (18)- I found this..

    “Consumer confidence made big gains this month on the back of falling gasoline prices, the government’s economic rescue and stabalization plan, and even hope regarding the November elections..”

    “However, our polling does not account yet for the impact of recently released unemployment figures and negative economic indicators. These may temper consumer confidence next month.”

  24. 3b says:

    #15 Rich: He hit my neighborhood in the Bronx, than the black out that summer. It was a crazy time.

  25. John says:

    Red Bank sacks plastic-bag ban
    by The Associated Press
    Wednesday November 12, 2008, 7:12 AM
    One Monmouth County town has sacked a proposal that would have banned plastic bags that can’t be recycled or composted.

    No one on the Red Bank Council supported bringing the proposed ordinance up for a vote.

    The ordinance, introduced in August, would have fined businesses who use them $100 to $500. Businesses could sell reusable plastic shopping bags.

    Councilman Michael DuPont showed a video supporting the ban.

    But a merchant said she had ordered 10,000 bags that she would never use up before the ban would take effect in July.

    Bag industry representatives said taking away the bags would encourage people to use thicker trash bags, which would place more plastic in landfills.

  26. kettle1 says:

    Kill GM already please!!!!

    if we want the government to pay for people to be employed then lets start a real jobs program that will produce useful results not consumer products that no one wantsand are of poor quality.

    I am a realist, i understand the politics. SO kill GM and immediatly start a real jobs program with the multibillon dollar bailout that would/will go to GM. Much more ffective in the long run.

    ——-
    GM’s Skid Accelerates as Credit Crisis, Slowing Sales Threaten Bankruptcy

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=azEnfDF7aB0s&refer=home

    “Strategic bankruptcy is not an option for GM,” said Mark Oline, a credit analyst with Fitch Inc. in Chicago. “This is an issue of operating or not operating.” The prospect of a forced liquidation raises the stakes for GM’s quest for new federal borrowing after saying on Nov. 7 it may run out of operating cash as soon as year’s end. GM had $16.2 billion on hand as of Sept. 30, down from $21 billion at the end of June, and needs $11 billion to pay its monthly bills. “A bankruptcy wouldn’t address our immediate liquidity concerns,” said Renee Rashid-Merem, a spokeswoman for Detroit- based GM. “It’s not an option for GM because it creates more problems than it solves.”

  27. 3b says:

    #18 gary:I can’t quite explain it.

    Last dance as the Titanic sinks.

  28. PGC says:

    Kettle,

    Have you any thoughts on Motor Oil. I am seeing some crazy prices Mobil 1 ($6 a quart at the wholesale stores). I assume that it’s due to the lag between high oil prices and time to market.

    It must me really hurting the Midas/Jiff-lube places.

  29. Shore Guy says:

    Re. buyer for Ocean County:

    I don’t know about that. Why leave one place that is sinking and buy a place where much of the land is just 10-15 feet above sea level?

  30. NJGator says:

    In my listings today:

    Price reduction on GSMLS 2521601 – 39 Stonehill in SO. Property last sold for $785k. Price now reduced to $575k with seller now offering $5k towards taxes (a bargain at $17.7k!)

    Also got this charmer in SO: 2601437 239 Conway. Assessed at 782,600. Asking 599k. “Buyer will fall in love with this unique and charming custom built home.” I’m sure it’s me, but can someone please point out the “charm” in these pics? BTW – taxes on the .13 acre piece of heaven are an absolute steal at 19k!

    http://newmls.gsmls.com/public/show_public_report_rpt.do?method=getData&sysid=%203894986&ptype=RES&report=res_media&pubid=259341&fromPublic=PUBLIC

  31. BC Bob says:

    3b [24],

    Sheeet. Forgot about the black out. It was a crazy time.

  32. Rich In NNJ says:

    Gary (18),

    Doesn’t the restraining order keep you from entering the children’s department?

    And how do you know they weren’t applying for jobs?

  33. Rich In NNJ says:

    3B (24),

    I totally forgot about the black out! That WAS a crazy time!

  34. NJGator says:

    Fiddy 17 – Fellow daycare mom has a spouse who works at AIG. Says that last week, someone noticed her husband’s AIG ID while he was riding the subway and started yelling and screaming at him and calling him a POS!

  35. Painhrtz says:

    Gator WTF, they should sell that place to the state it looks like a jail without the razor wire

  36. NJGator says:

    35 Pain – Sometimes I think the realtor who emails me these things is an impostor who is just really a comedienne.

  37. John says:

    “Daycare Mom” isn’t that an oxymoron.

  38. NJGator says:

    37 John – FU!

  39. 3b says:

    #30 Nj Gator: Look more like some type of medical office building.

  40. 3b says:

    #33 Rich: Yes it sure was. Everybody hnaging out in the streets at 2 or 3 in the morning, no lights, A/C or fans, so nothung else to do.

  41. Doyle says:

    BC – 3b – RichNNJ,

    You guys are OLD :)

  42. gary says:

    Rich [32],

    LOL!! You are f*cking wild!

  43. grim says:

    Day after Amex becomes a bank they ask the TARP for 3.5 bil.

  44. kettle1 says:

    PGC 28

    Re Motor oil.

    Havent looked at it specifically but such disconnects often come from the refinery. In the same way that gasoline doesnt always drop or rise in unison with oil.

    There are numerous “refiner effects” that can and often do disconnect the market price of a finished petroleum product from the price of raw oil.

  45. make money says:

    This week, Asian markets were initially energized by China’s announcement of a near $600 billion economic stimulus package for its own economy. Although I have never been a fan of government-fueled stimuli, the relative wisdom of the plan hinges on the source of funds the Chinese government decides to utilize. Their best choice would be the country’s nearly $2 trillion in foreign reserves, the largest portion of which is held in U.S. Treasury and agency debt. This pile of dollars, which really amounts to no more than a subsidy for U.S. consumers, does nothing to benefit Chinese citizens.

    If it does decide to employ this ocean of cash, China will become a net seller of U.S Treasuries just as the U.S. Government itself will be pushing up its issuance of new Treasury bonds into record territory. With two huge sellers and few major buyers (just about every major creditor nation having problems of their own), the Federal Reserve will become the only reliable customer. As a result, not only will the Fed monetize our own economic stimulus packages, but will be forced to provide the same service to the Chinese.

  46. BC Bob says:

    Doyle [41],

    I was in my basement, listening to Born to Run, while Son of Sam was on a rampage. That is, until the black out hit.

  47. NJGator says:

    43 Grim – I’d like to be a bank. $10mil would be sufficient to keep the Gator family afloat. We are a relative bargain.

  48. John says:

    Sorry I ment “working mom”, I have nothing against it, if I could pimp my wife out and get her back to work at her old bank I would do it in a second.

    NJGator Says:
    November 12th, 2008 at 9:13 am
    37 John – FU!

  49. 3b says:

    #43 grim: And what they give the Fed/Treas 3.5 billion of credit card receiveables?

    How does a CC company warrant becoming a bank??

  50. DL says:

    Keeping GM alive would be like Germany keeping the Trabant and Wartburg alive after the Fall of the Wall. You can keep cranking out that stuff but no one is going to buy it. I’m told if Congress throws money at GM it will come with environmental conditions. GM couldn’t even sell cars under current fuel efficiency mandates. The only way they will sell the Volt is if Congress passes a law mandating everyone buy one. Of course then they will have to give people a subsidy to buy it. When do we start addressing each other with Comrade?

  51. Secondary Market says:

    @49 3b Says:How does a CC company warrant becoming a bank??

    they hand over their redeemable reward points to the govt.

  52. kettle1 says:

    Amex, another zombie. They have tumbled 54 percent this year, the fourth-biggest decline in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

    A majority of the drop in stock price has come from americans being saturated in debt, tapped out. Credit Card defaults have crushed them so far this year and the problem is going to get much worse before it gets better. left to their own Amex would most likely fail and should certainly suffer any such consequences of their actions

    “concerns for American Express and other consumer lending-related stocks continue to be worse-than-expected credit losses”
    http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE4AA35420081111

    This is disgusting can we please let incompetent corporations fail??? many of these companies being bailed out had significant amoounts of cash on hand a few years ago but decided that leveraging the cash was a better idea. Businesses that make poor business decisions should be held to the consequences of their actions.

    We are bailing out the banks with tax payer money. Can someone please explain why i can now have the privilege of begging to borrow “my” money back from the bank with interest when we the tax payer gave them the money in the first place????

    What we are seeing is a government sponsored enactment of “privatized gains, socialized losses”

    welcome to the new USA, United Serfdom of America

  53. Doyle says:

    #46

    BC, I believe I was two towns over from you, a few months old… didn’t Giants Stadium go in then too?

  54. kettle1 says:

    DL

    “when do we refer to each other as Comrade”

    did you miss the memo, look at Comrade Nom’s name.?.?.?.?.

  55. NJGator says:

    Today Gator is so glad she did not take that job at Amex Publishing.

  56. John says:

    I was reading Motor Trend last night and they had a 2010 car preview. Pretty amazing new line of caddies coming out, and the new chevy volt and chevy camaro. All hot stuff. I say 50% of magazine was on GM. Toyota, Honda and Nissan litterally had combined half the new models of GM. Once GM is gone we are stuck forever driving cloth seat 4 clynder 30K Camrys, soon we will look like Cuba with people driving cool old Corvettes, Escalades and Vipers rather than buy new rice burning jap boxes. The Japanese themselves will become zombies with out GM, Ford and Chrysler. Heck my neighbor got a new accord once and since it was the same color as he old accord no one even knew he had a new car, same old design year after year. Boring. Plus GM and Ford zero interest and crazy rebates is all that keeps Toyota and Honda in check, so that once that competion is gone they can jack prices.

    I guess the men can still drive German Cars and ladies and girlie men can still drive jap cars but what will the rednecks drive?

  57. DL says:

    It will take a long time to wring out the market distortions resulting from gov’t intervention. The only plays that make sense (from a CNBC perspective) is to bet on whomever will prosper most by sucking on the gov’t’s teat.

  58. Nicholas says:

    “Government was the only sector to create jobs last quarter.”

    They needed to hire more people to help them disburse that one trillion dollar bailout.

  59. BC Bob says:

    “BC, I believe I was two towns over from you”

    Doyle,

    How do you know where I grew up, Growin Up?

    Gints Stadium, 1976.

  60. DL says:

    When we get done nationalizing health care, banking, auto, airline, schools (opps, too late) etc., and hire the federal, state and local bureauarcy needed to manage it, there will be a shortage of qualified gov’t workers.

  61. Doyle says:

    “How do you know where I grew up, Growin Up?”

    I believe it came up in one of our Southern BC convo’s over the years here…

  62. Sean says:

    Ah the 77 blackout. We were big into Zepplin back then, we hung out on the stoop with cousins and neighbors till bed time. Gun Hill Road in the Bronx was pretty quiet during the whole mess, there was some looting on Jerome ave from what I can remember.

    My uncle the bus driver had allot of stories to tell when he came home the next day, and my old man who worked for Con Ed at the time was convinced that it was sabotage.

    Rap music was actually born out of that mess and all of the looting. During the blackout a number of kids obtained DJ and recording equipment and were able to spread the sound afterwards.

  63. scribe says:

    Gary,

    #12

    Yes, but not as old as me :)

  64. spam spam bacon spam says:

    Trabant <~ Lusting for one.

  65. Nicholas says:

    MRIS (MLS for Maryland) shows prices continuing to slide. Although the NAR numbers are not out yet the numbers will be bad for Metro DC.

    Cash/Schiller index which won’t be out for another two months will keep reporting housing declines all the way into its October data.

  66. Nicholas says:

    I know that “housing is still doing bad” isn’t exactly new news, I just wanted to inform you about the Washington DC metro area.

  67. Stu says:

    “Today Gator is so glad she did not take that job at Amex Publishing.”

    Where are my props? I told you from day one that it was a dangerous move considering that unlike Visa and Mastercard, they are actually responsible for their customer’s debts.

  68. Stu says:

    DJIA at 8500, for those not watching at home.

  69. 3b says:

    #62 Quiet in my part of the Bronx too, althouh therre were all sorts of rumors spreading about disturbances/riots, and invasions from the projects a mile away.

    If I remember correctly there was looting on Fordham Rd, in the west Bronx.

  70. DL says:

    Ref 64: Spam, you primarily see Trabies as garden planters these days. I doubt you could get one past the EPA to import. Not only do they meet no standard for personal transportation in the industrialized world, they have to be treated as toxic waste when disposed.

  71. Rich In NNJ says:

    Bob (59),

    “BC, I believe I was two towns over from you”

    Doyle,

    How do you know where I grew up, Growin Up?

    He heard you scream when the lights went out?

  72. John says:

    My friend when he was in Germany bought a commie trablant right after wall fell for kicks. He got a crack in it and the damm car was made of recycled plactic and there are no parts. He took a bunch of plastic soda bottles melted them down jammed the molten plastic in the crack spackled it quickly and spay painted it and it was good as new.

  73. John says:

    I was watching Rocky the nights the lights went out and when the RKO on Fordam Road went dark I whiped out my ak47 and grabbed an impala and rammed the gates of crazy eddie and went crazy made stupid looting. Forget about what I did to Alexanders, the damm place had to go bankrupt as they had nothing left to sell.

  74. spam spam bacon spam says:

    Cousin works at AIG.

    She was sent internal email from the president, (company wide) to hide ID badges outside the office.

  75. Nicholas says:

    Did you mean DOW at 8400?

  76. RayC says:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/12/business/12mall.html?ref=nyregion

    “Xanadu, a $2 billion shopping and entertainment center rising in the Meadowlands, simply went to duck-and-cover mode; its planned opening this month was pushed back to next summer.”

    Sorry if this are-post. I remember predictions that Xanadu would become a casino. Now that gambling is taking a downturn, what does it become, a brothel? Do we really need h00kers on indoor ski slopes? Hmmm……No! Nevermind that thought.

  77. Secondary Market says:

    In a good way; every time I read a NJGator post it reminds me of this:

    http://tinyurl.com/25e6fc

  78. scribe says:

    From Portfolio, Michael Lewis article on CDOs and the end of the Street.

    http://www.portfolio.com/news-markets/national-news/portfolio/2008/11/11/The-End-of-Wall-Streets-Boom

  79. Victorian says:

    Bi:

    What are your predictions for today? Wait, let me answer that for you – The market will either go up or down.

  80. Stu says:

    ^vix is above 64 and it looks like panic is returning to the market. I guess we need another TARP, no?

  81. Nicholas says:

    In the area that I’m looking at I’m seeing that FHA and VA now make up the vast majority of lending being done with 47.4% of the lending market now attributed to them.

    Interestingly there were a few assumptions.

  82. Victorian says:

    HOV is steadily marching towards 0. Question for options gurus – do long term puts become more valuable in case of BK or short term?

  83. NJGator says:

    SM 77 – Gator must talk about herself in the third person. It’s a trait of royalty.

  84. Stu says:

    The Real Difference Between Bankruptcy and Bailout

    http://robertreich.blogspot.com/2008/11/real-difference-between-bankruptcy-and.html

    “When a big company that gets into trouble is more valuable living than dead, there used to be a well-established legal process for reorganizing it – called chapter 11 of the bankruptcy code. Under it, creditors took some losses, shareholders even bigger ones, some managers’ heads rolled. Companies cleaned up their books and got a fresh start. And taxpayers didn’t pay a penny.”

  85. RayC says:

    Paulson Says Bailout Funds May Be Used for Non-Bank Companies

    NYT Breaking News

  86. Nicholas says:

    Good thing that American Express spent all that money reogranizing into a bank.

  87. kettle1 says:

    who was the idiot who thought an indoor ski slope in NNJ was a good idea. Its not like we live in saudi arabia. Good skiing is a few hours drive for most people…..

  88. NJGator says:

    Comrade Nom – Maybe Melissa can send her CA taxes to CT…

    I have long since felt that the government needs to get out of marriage entirely. The government should only recognize civil unions that would provide any gay/straight couple with equal rights and benefits. If a couple so chose, they could then have their relationship recognized via a religious marriage cermony as well. But all legal rights should derive from the civil union rather than the religious ceremony.

    That should take a lot of the religious nut argument out of this issue.

    Gay couples can start to marry in Connecticut

    Only Connecticut and Massachusetts have legalized gay marriage. The unions were legal in California until a statewide referendum to ban gay marriage narrowly passed last week. The vote has sparked protests and several lawsuits asking that state’s Supreme Court to overturn the prohibition.

    Constitutional amendments to ban gay marriage also passed last week in Arizona and Florida, and Arkansas voters approved a measure banning unmarried couples from serving as adoptive or foster parents.

    However, Connecticut voters last week rejected the idea of a constitutional convention to amend the state’s constitution, a major blow to opponents of same-sex marriage.

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081112/ap_on_re_us/gay_marriage

  89. Sean says:

    re#86 – Where can I download the application for a TARP bailout.

  90. Stu says:

    “who was the idiot who thought an indoor ski slope in NNJ was a good idea.”

    Probably the same morons who thought building a hockey arena in a predominantly black city would make sense!

  91. Stu says:

    I think there should be a provision in the marriage code that when two women wed, the consummation should be performed in public. With such a provision, pro gay marriage amendments would immediately become a constitutional right.

    I was temporarily John.

  92. chicagofinance says:

    Fiddy Cents on the Dollar Says:
    November 12th, 2008 at 8:39 am
    Another AIG “conference” this time at the Hilton Squaw Peak Resort in Phoenix. Last week they spent another $300K, and did it in steath mode. This crap from AIG has reached assinine proportions. Before they get another dime of taxpayer money….someone must be held accountable!

    Fiddy: Actually this story is a crock, but they wouldn’t let facts get in the way of a good headline. All the conference attendees paid for their own transportation, lodgings and had to pony up money for an entrance fee, and several corporate sponsors picked up the tab for the meals and the bulk of venue costs. Total out of pocket for AIG was less than $50K.

  93. Stu says:

    ChiFi (93):

    I was thinking the same thing when I heard that story first break.

  94. 3b says:

    #93 Chgofinance:Total out of pocket for AIG was less than $50K.

    50k is 50K it is does not matter. All non essential spending should be stopped, period.

  95. chicagofinance says:

    Non-essential? You have to run a business. These guys are relationships that are agents and contractors. You cut it off, they go elsewhere. We own these SOB’s and 80% of the upside. You want it to go to zero?

  96. skep-tic says:

    #20

    “So can we just make it official and say that GM is an official federal government jobs program. Maybe we can repurpose all of those workers and start building ski lodges and other nifty things that people may actually want instead of a product that has little demand, like during the new deal jobs program?”

    totally agree. instead, they will be put to work building crappy overpriced hybrids that no one can afford or wants

  97. 3b says:

    #96 chgo: point taken.

  98. Yikes says:

    damn. do i have to pull my money out of ING again? still under the 100k FDIC limit, but the concern is the simple hassle of having to deal with getting my loot back if ING were to go under.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/13/business/worldbusiness/13ing.html?ref=worldbusiness

    still gotta read 100 comments from yesterday …

  99. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [89] Comrade Gator,

    True dat. Conn. story is a nonstory, but the real story that will be debated more hotly when there is legislation, is the tax disparity btwn hetero marrieds and gay marrieds.

    Under the O tax hike proposal, gay marrieds are still treated as single for fed tax purposes, so gay HENRYs have a higher threshold before being hit with new O marriage penalty.

    Same for DP/CU couples. So I predict that the O camp will use this disparity to help push recognition of gay marriage by claiming (paradoxically) that it would be an unfair windfall to gay married couples if they were not taxed the same as hetero marrieds. The LOL part is that the O camp will be forced to acknowledge that they intend to pass a new marriage penalty provision.

    Of course, to do this, they have to repeal DOMA, which they said that they would not do.

    Finally, the GOP response will be that you don’t have to repeal DOMA or monkey with the tax code—simply change the proposal to eliminate the marriage penalty in the O tax plan.

    Moral of the story (and one I have pushed for years): If you make a lot of money, don’t get married.

  100. chicagofinance says:

    November 11, 2008, 7:15 pm
    Homebuilder Says New York Has Joined the Slump
    Associated Press

    Housing demand in New York City has fallen to earth with the rest of the U.S., according to Toll Brothers’ CEO. (AP Photo)

    Toll Brothers Inc. CEO Robert Toll said Tuesday the financial turmoil has sparked a wave of home cancellations, in announcing the company’s October sales numbers. Fears of jobs losses and the plummeting stock market drove “home buyers’ confidence and our traffic and demand down to record lows.” Mr. Toll said. He also said that New York is joining the slump the rest of the country has been experiencing.

    According to the transcript of the company’s conference call, provided by Thomson Street Events, Mr. Toll is asked if there were there any areas that stood out as stronger than others. Mr. Toll responded: “I wouldn’t say so. … No, I reviewed that just this Monday night with all of the regionals, and unfortunately, I don’t see any areas of strength. We used to be able to claim New York City. We don’t claim that any more. We used to claim Connecticut, and that slowed down a little bit. I don’t see any standouts.

    Later, he added: “Been a tremendous change in the last six weeks. Up to the financial debacle crisis that we’ve entered, New York City was a nice stand-alone, and a beacon, but it has now joined the ranks of the rest of the country. … I would expect the financial business in New York to probably lose 100,000 people. You don’t think it will be that high, guys? Well, I hope I’m wrong, but that’s got to have a serious impact on the price of real estate, and I would think that the foreign market, which supported in large measure the pricier condos in New York City, is not there in force as it was. What with the euro going down in comparison to the dollar lately, and with their own economic crisis. So I would think you are in for a more challenged time in New York. How long that will last? As long as it takes for the financial market to come back. If the financial market comes back pretty quickly, we have found in the past. And when it does, we would expect the New York market to return again.”

  101. All Hype says:

    I guess the men can still drive German Cars and ladies and girlie men can still drive jap cars but what will the rednecks drive?
    ________________________________________________

    John:
    Without a doubt, you are the biggest bullshitter on this board. I drive a Subaru and I can assure that I am no girlie man.

  102. Mike NJ says:

    103

    Not defending John’s synopsis of car buyers but a person does not get to label themselves. Others must do this. Psych 101. We all live in our own little dream worlds you know.

  103. Stu says:

    All Hype,

    Still driving my 95 Civic hatchback. Call me a girly man, but at this point that car has cost me less than $3/day to own. Compare that to your BMW/Mercedes owner who pays $17/day to drive his, “look my dick is small, but I way overpaid for this German high performance vehicle owner.” I guess that makes me a frugal girly man.

  104. kettle1 says:

    TARP’s $700 Billion Can’t Meet `Phenomenal’ Spending, Reid Says
    By John Glover
    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=any3rCKhKtOU&refer=home

    Nov. 12 (Bloomberg) — The U.S. Treasury’s $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program will have to be increased to meet the `phenomenal’ demand for government bailouts, according to Deutsche Bank AG strategist Jim Reid.

    The extra $150 billion pledged to support insurer American International Group Inc. this week and the prospect of a financial package to rescue General Motors Corp., the largest U.S. automaker, from bankruptcy may drain the TARP fund, Reid wrote in a note to investors today.

    “It does feel that the $700 billion TARP fund is going to have to be increased at some point in the not-too-distant future,” wrote Reid, head of fundamental credit strategy at Deutsche Bank in London. Either that, “or another acronym will have to be formulated to deal with the phenomenal amount of government spending that’s still likely as this crisis escalates.”

  105. John says:

    A Subaru is like a boxster, miata, bug, camry, c class, base model Jag or cobalt a real girlie car. At any club that would be a parked by the dumpster car. Kinda like a Dee Dee McCall Dodge Datona from Hunter or a Farah Fawcet Mustang II from Charlie Angels. Certain cars are ment to be driven when you are shooting off the ladies tees. Usually they don’t come in stick as it is hard enough to shift in high heels let alone do your make up and yap on the cell phone. I guess some male acid dropping ex hippie men up in Maine drive subarus to pick up their maple syrup and sometimes I see wimpy horn rimmed glasses guys with male order brides driving them. They are cute my wife had a yellow one one once with a little trunk rack and a sunroof with pinstripes and clip on hubcaps.

    I would like to borrow your Subaru one night in case my BNW or Benz S Class needs a girlfriend for the night.

  106. RemainCalmALLISWeLL says:

    This cars bit could be the worst string ever on this board.

  107. Of all the things one could say about a Sube, girly is not one of them. Particularly the STIs.
    Besides we all know it has been scientifically proven that the manliest cars in existence are variants of the Lotus 7.

  108. lena says:

    American Express is a sinking ship. Anyone on this board think someone will buy them next year?

  109. Stu says:

    Here’s my baby and I see that she is conveniently parked next to a dumpster!

    http://i117.photobucket.com/albums/o69/hondahannah/JDMEG92-95CivicHatchbackRearGlassLa.jpg

  110. max says:

    rumors that corzine will eliminate the
    tax rebates for homeowners..

    done deal,,,

  111. 3b says:

    #110 John: I prefer Morris Minors.

  112. Mitchell says:

    Paulson said the government’s $700 billion financial rescue package will not purchase troubled assets from banks as originally planned. He said that plan would have taken too much time, and that the Treasury instead will rely on buying stakes in banks and encouraging them to resume more normal lending.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Stocks-lower-as-Paulson-apf-13545245.html

  113. bi says:

    anybody on this board still holds oils? your hands must be really dirty now.

  114. RU says:

    #108 John, Isn’t your thought process what got everyone in some financial trouble in the first place? Keeping up with the Jones’s and worrying what people think of you if you don’t drive a big SUV, Mercedes, or BMW. I’ll stick with my Jap cars knowing that it will be paid off and still running for a long time. In the meantime, I’ll be saving money b/c of no car payment and taking vacations when I want. I could give 2 sh#ts what people think when I drive by. I’m secure in my manhood.

  115. John says:

    amex became a bank holding company as in part if it can’t survive downtown a merger with a large bank is easier if they have the same structure. Their pref stock and bonds are a great buy as if they can’t execute a citi or chase will buy them and they are right to par. This is a classic Warren Buffet Type investment if he was still senile. Old WB is on the common side using his pants as ankle warmers.

    The stock is a crap shoot.

  116. 3b says:

    #118 RU: See my response to you post on yesterday’s comments.

    Hope it helps.

  117. bi says:

    i believe market sentiment is going to change soon as oil comes down to this level. in the next few months, CPI number will be negative. this will let fed to keep the rate at this level and even cut it further. this should be good for stock market. my prediction is dow will be traded above 10K by year end. all disclaimers apply.

  118. Mitchell says:

    #117 bi

    Should add Gold holders to that list also.

  119. NJGator says:

    Comrade Nom 101 –

    “Moral of the story (and one I have pushed for years): If you make a lot of money, don’t get married.”

    How does Mme. Nom feel about that?

    I was even more saddened to see Arkansas voters supporting a ballot measure to ban all unmarried folks from apodting or being foster parents (so they can prevent gay folks from adopting). I’m a CASA advocate and live in a county where we have 1% of the entire foster care population in the country. The last thing we need is to narrow our options of potential homes for these kids. We already don’t have enough.

    One of Lil Gator’s friends from school is a former DYFS foster child who was been cared for since infancy by her gay foster parents who legally adopted her as soon as she was freed for adoption. Not only have they provided her a loving home, but they didn’t think twice when getting an unexpected call from DYFS 2 years later informing them that their daughter’s mother had had another child who needed a home immediately. Even though they hadn’t planned for it, they took that child in on 24 hours notice and completely upended their lives for her. Yeah, we really need to keep people like that from adopting.

    Can I ask that my federal tax dollars not be sent to Arkansas?

  120. John says:

    RU, my benz is a 75 SL I bought in 1993 for $8,500 and is still worth around that much and I pay $99 a year car insurance. My 2006 BMW I got last month at a car auction wholesale. I find it cheaper to get a good german car used and at wholesale that holds value or buy a pos used american car and run it into ground than owning japanese. What makes you think people have car payments? Plus who pays for vacations? Use your points from business trips. I am very cheap. Plus I have found out that sometimes when bonus times comes some firms have a culture like GS and MS used to where if I gave you a 200K bounus and you stuck it in your sock drawer while person B got a nice car, went on vacation and did a little home remodel and thanked the boss greatly and gave the boss a ride in the car come next year guess who is getting more. What fun is it to put more money in a sock drawer?

  121. #121 – the next few months, CPI number will be negative…. this should be good for stock market

    Sooo, price deflation will be good for earnings?

  122. RentinginNJ says:

    who was the idiot who thought an indoor ski slope in NNJ was a good idea. Its not like we live in saudi arabia. Good skiing is a few hours drive for most people…..

    What’s the over/under on how long this thing actually stays open?

    A few broken bones or some inner city kid who has never seen a ski slope breaks his neck and insurance either pulls out or becomes prohibitively expensive. The Xanadu ski slope will join such New Jersey attractions as Action Park and the Great Adventure Haunted House.

  123. SG says:

    According to Reuters, “U.S. holiday retail sales will fall 1 percent this year, according to America’s Research Group, marking the first time the research firm has forecast a decline in almost a quarter century of surveys.”

    The figures are still much to optimistic. Perhaps, researchers do not want to drive retail firms to despair.

    With car sales running off 30% and home sales in the worst shape in US history, it would be astonishing if the consumer did not pull back 10% or greater on their holiday purchases. They are remarkably poor and the holidays will not change that.

    http://www.247wallst.com/2008/11/bulletin-from-t.html

  124. John says:

    RE 123 I also think it will save fuel as they won’t have to fly to bankok to play with little boys.

  125. skep-tic says:

    the funny thing is if you drive the supposedly manly bimmer 100 miles in from the coast you are now the girly man. real men (I am not one) drive F-150s, Rams or Silverados.

  126. SG says:

    bi: my prediction is dow will be traded above 10K by year end.

    for some weird reason i think u might be right. but i think that rally wont last long.

  127. #126 – New Jersey attractions as Action Park and the Great Adventure Haunted House

    Traction Park rocked! I loved the mini F1 go carts they had.

  128. 3b says:

    31212 bi:my prediction is dow will be traded above 10K by year end. all disclaimers apply.

    What about continuing dismal corporate earnings, and a dismal holiday shopping season?

  129. make money says:

    #117 bi

    Should add Gold holders to that list also.

    GOLD is not dirty. It’s shiny. I own the physical and if you think that all these new trillions in circulation and a 1% FFR will not cause significant inflation then you’re sadly mistaken.

    we just keep adding more fuel(stimulus) to the fire and you expect these short term imbalances to change my mind.

    As a matter of fact, call me crazy but I’m happy to be on the other side of the trade that Bi is.

  130. House Hunter says:

    Though Fannie (FNM, Fortune 500) and Freddie (FRE, Fortune 500) own or guarantee 58% of all mortgages on single-family homes, these loans represent only 20% of serious delinquencies. The majority of the problem mortgages were bundled into securities, which were sold in pieces to investors.
    http://money.cnn.com/2008/11/11/news/economy/gse_plan_analysis/index.htm?postversion=2008111120

  131. BAC @ $17.89 – Has it officially entered into zombie territory?

  132. yikes says:

    victorian – saw this yesterday, and just curious … do you work at the NYT?

    I can’t say anything specific about this company (we’ll be writing about it in depth later), but suffice it to say that many of its products could have broad and deep social benefits.

  133. yikes says:

    # randy Says:
    November 11th, 2008 at 4:22 pm

    why doesn’t the government just offer homebuyers a $50,000 credit towards their purchase… and the program goes for 1 year. this will put urgency into buyers, and also into sellers.

    sellers will be falling all over themselves to sell during this one year period, as it means their buyer will be eligible for the credit. so if that means they have to reduce their listing price, they’ll do it.

    oh, i forgot, the government wouldn’t want to do anything that might actually benefit the citizenry.

    what are the chance this, or something like it, happens, BC/Clot?

    Cause if you really think there’s any hope all for this, we will NOT be rushing to buy.

  134. kettle1 says:

    Bi,

    I am in both gold and oil. Both are long term plays. In the short term i think we could see a bottom (in oil prices) at $30 oil as global demand falls off and OPEC members refuse to honor production cuts.
    For me $30 oil is a once in a lifetime buying opportunity. Anything under $50 and i will start adding more oil sector exposure to my portfolio

  135. BC Bob says:

    “bi: my prediction is dow will be traded above 10K by year end.”

    bi,

    If the lows hold, at this time, that’s only a 40%, approx, retracement from the high. Wow, you are really bearish.

  136. BC Bob says:

    kettle,

    If oil reaches $30, I will bury myself with long dated calls.

  137. kettle1 says:

    yikes,

    I dont see a 50K credit helping. If sellers suddenly see the gov handing out 50K the majority will raise their price by 50K.

  138. BC Bob says:

    HH [134],

    Exactly.

    There are close to 4m households currently underwater/close to it. This program will be lucky to reach 100-200K.

  139. RU says:

    #120 3b, Yep, saw it. Thanks. Trying to find something in the area with good school systems. I’m resigned to the fact that I’m going to pay high taxes.

  140. 3b says:

    #141 kettle:50K the majority will raise their price by 50K.

    That is exactly what I said yesterday.

    To which I added, it would also further distort the market, leading to a complete collapse.

  141. kettle1 says:

    BC,

    The way things are going, It looks like russia and a few other may be forced in a race to pump, just to maintain current income as carry trades unwind and global trade falters. The reduced level of consumption combined with a potential oversupply while the dollar is strengthening at the same time is a recipe for a collapse in oil prices. Even if it will only be temporary. I think 30 is a very solid floor but wouldnt be surprised if the price stalls out in the $40’s. I think a big chunk has to do with how long the dollar can continue to strengthen.

  142. C trading below $10.
    Is there any way they are left to market forces? Or is Paulson going back to congress next week to double the bailout?

  143. 3b says:

    #143 RU: Wait it out (if you can), prices are finally starting to decline there rapidly.

    Check this listing. njmls# 2816828. This house started out asking 479K, back in the Spring.

    It was just reduced again yesterday to 354K. Taxes are just under 8k, which for RE is very attractive.

    The exact same house 2 doors away sold in October of 2006 for 450K!!!

    Plus you can walk to the elementary school, and the park( (Jeez I sound like a realtor.)

  144. max says:

    yankees having problems selling out seats
    for new ballpark.

  145. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [123] Gator,

    If we were dating right now, and I told her it would be worthwhile to hold off due to tax savings, I think she would go for it. That said, you can still have a “ceremony” and a reception for something else, and only the moms would be cheesed off. Point is, that for HENRYs, the adherence to tradition comes with a price, and that price is going up.

    As for Arkansas, no, you don’t have that option. Unless Arkansas secedes from the union (again).

  146. Mitchell says:

    #133 GOLD is not safe nor is it that shiny.

    I took heat for saying avoid Gold when it was around 900 and 840 if I recall correctly and got the same response. Its not a safe bet and not very attractive to me. I would stay away from it. So far I seem to be correct.

    I believe oil will easily reach $30.00 but I would be skeptical to buy it still. I believe it will stay low for some time to come to keep alternatives from becoming attractive business models. Raise the price and the temptation to sell alternatives becomes an option. The Alternatives tech is good enough today and will only get better. The manufacturing/distribution becomes attractive with high oil prices. So Oil will go low and should remain low to fend off alternatives as best it can.

  147. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [103]

    I leased a corolla for my second car, because I like to believe that I have more brains than money. And if you are going to call me a girlie man, do it to my face, B1tch.

  148. John says:

    The shiek who bought at 9 in 91 don’t look so smart now.
    The floor of oil is ten bucks a barrel. That was its last low.
    The next stimulus package will be timed to match something like cheap US car loans or tax deductable interest on US car loans or US Car laons tax rebates. Late rebates ended up around time you could buy huge jumbo no name asian flat screens for $700 so money went to asia, to pay down debt or in savings bank. All bad if you want to stimulate economy. What you really need is like a $1,500 check to $3,000 check that people can use as downpayment on a 25K US car. That way you get 15X stimulus to economy.

  149. John says:

    Is your favorite bird a swallow?

    Comrade Nom Deplume Says:
    November 12th, 2008 at 1:38 pm
    [103]

    I leased a corolla for my second car, because I like to believe that I have more brains than money. And if you are going to call me a girlie man, do it to my face, B1tch.

  150. BC Bob says:

    Not sure if this has been posted. Can’t keep up.

    “A truisim of all bailouts: Enormous amounts of taxpayer cash attracts all manner of unsavory, undeserving characters. What was supposed to be a narrow and limited attempt to reduce the systemic risk of a financial collapse has become a taxpayer funded free-for-all.”

    “Like hyenas trying to steal the kill from a lion, the mere scent of this enormous pile of loot starts attracts the scavengers. They cannot help themselves, for it is their essence, and who they are.”

    “Just as the dreaded 17 year locust devours all before it, so Lobbyists too, are swarming the capital. Never before has a trillion dollars been authorized so quickly. Never before has so much money been spent with so little oversight, controls, or transparency.”

    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/why-bailouts-attract-handout-seekers/

  151. RU says:

    #147 3b, Looked at that house in Sept. Looks nice from the outside. Bedrooms are tiny and needs some work. I do like RE though. It seems if all the schools are walking distance plus nice park. Can’t wait it out too much longer. I have a kid on the way and the apt. I’m in is too small. Don’t want to move just to rent again. Plus, my wife and I are getting killed with income taxes. Getting a little nervous with the President elects plans.

  152. Victorian says:

    Yikes (130)-
    “do you work at the NYT?”

    – No, That was a snippet from the article I linked to.

  153. Victorian says:

    BC(154)-
    “Not sure if this has been posted.”

    First thing in the morning. My morning ritual now includes visiting NJRE, TBP and CR :). And to think, I used to check the sports sections before.

  154. yikes says:

    on this link that was sent yesterday

    http://www.ushousingmeltdown.org/house-value-to-income-ratio.asp

    my town in bucks county isn’t that bad.
    only 11% overpriced in 2005

    obviously, i sent this to the 3 realtors i have been speaking with recently.

  155. kettle1 says:

    For anyone with Burlington county MLS info, could i get a sales history for the following?

    MLS ID #5414116

    thank you

  156. Stu says:

    Just had my yearly review today. It’s funny how when your company commits to freezing salaries, it drastically diminishes how you perceive the importance of the review.

    In other news, Don Harrold (that crazy day/swing trader that loves to make fun of Cramer and CNBC) called this the bottom to oil. Although I don’t play any of his calls, this guy has an unbelievable track record.

    One last thing. I noticed that Bi has disclaimed his DJIA to 10K call. Was the disclaimer really necessary?

  157. 3b says:

    #155 RU: Understand, but waiting another 6 months or so will amke a real difference.

    Income taxes are not significantIMO, when you are talking about saving a big chunk of money.

    The house was resided/new roof , and all new windows in the last few years, so alot of the big work was taken care of, 100k difference in price in 2 years is huge.

    I know it does not work for you, but just soemthing to keep in mind that prices have fallen significantly, and will continue to.

    the tax situation in RE is getting uglier every year; expect at least another $700 to $800 increase next year,with no end in sight.

    Also keep in mind that Oradell is pettioning the state to disolve the River Dell district, this could have huge implications for taxes in RE, away from the massive increases we have been seeing over the last few years.

  158. Al says:

    My Zip Code:
    Year Income H-Prices
    1999 $67,589 $179,700 2.7
    2005 $74,886 $364,329 4.9 Overvalued: 40%

    There was no boom in NJ…..

  159. yikes says:

    kettle/3b – interesting take on the imaginary 50k housing tax credit.

    I see the opposite – sellers will put their house on the market slightly above what they were asking before, but remember – this 50k tax credit will only be a limited time offer, like one year.

    so after 6 months of lowball after lowball, these people who CAN’T AFFORD the house they are in, and just had the worst xmas ever because of the albatross around their neck, will concede.

    just my guess (then again, im a buyer! Ha!)

  160. Mitchell says:

    Like the President elect or not he is correct in his plan to reduce our dependency on foreign oil. Drilling offshore isn’t really an option we would see any benefit too because we simply don’t have refinery capacity to meet the demand anyhow and it would only provide about 3% of the dependency and take at least 5 years before anyone saw a drop of it.

    Technically Oil is yesterdays technology that hasn’t been replaced yet and in 15 years will begin to look like the steam engine of our great grand parents. Its starting to look that way now.

    Doing this of course is not cheap and will cost taxpayers but is it better to have trillions of dollars going oversees or somehow retaining those trillions within our own economy? If your someone who bets on Oil then oversees it is and drill drill drill. If your someone who supports the American economy long term then Alternatives are the future and Oil is dead to you but still needed in the mean time. Same as we need Nuclear plants until Solar/Wind can be more effective. Tidal I would just about rate as being there. Solar is real close as there were some very nice breakthroughs recently with increase efficiency. Wind is getting there if you put them up today they will need very little to get them to produce more when the time is right.

    Even if we only accomplish a portion of this task its a win for the economy. Oil needs a competitor and consumers need alternatives. Its not just about tree hugging its about innovation and being smarter. Were smart enough to put fossil based fuels behind us and the tech is here to do so.

    Now its where do you want your next dollar of fuel to go to? Oversees or retained within the US?

  161. Victorian says:

    This “C”ucker is going down! In single digits.

  162. Stu says:

    Victorian:

    Add Economist’s View and the pre-market futures to your ritual and you’ll be all set.

    http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/

  163. 3b says:

    #149 Comrade:Unless Arkansas secedes from the union (again).

    Maybe we can let them go this time.

  164. Al says:

    Interesting – I was listening to Bloomberg radio last night on the way home… They were talking about next stimulus. Everybody on the air they have interviewed agreed that next stimulus will include some kind of tax-deduction for down payment on buying a house. All also agreed that next bigger stimulus is a given the moment Obama is inaugurated.
    Big discussion was around if Government is big enough and can create enough jobs to battle “recession” we are having, with more than half people seeing recession going on well into 2012. Very striking change from a year ago when the same people denied any possibility of recession in USA.

    Everybody talked about stopping decline in house prices.
    NOT ONE PERSON SAID – house priced should drop as they are disproportionately high compared to salaries!!! Not one – and they are country’s leading economists and such….

    P.S. I really need to get into finance/economics. When I say something completely wrong at work, and year ago it is proven to be wrong – I am fired as incompetent. My statements must be proved by concrete-solid experimental data and all of that for 1/10 of those guy’s salaries!!!

  165. Al says:

    Th O-word is still moderated?

  166. Sean says:

    re: #150 Mitchell I bet you any amount you wish to wager that gold will pay off before your life insurance does.

    Oil is at it’s current real price around $60 a barrel do to several factors, demand destruction for sure but a undwinding of the Hedge funds and a shutdown of the ICE market Enron Loophole in the farm bill that was passedlast summer had more to do with the drop than demand destruction.

    Hopefuly that Goldman Sachs analyst Arjun Murti will get fired for manipulating energy prices and for hyping research the same way Merrill Lynch analyst Henry Blodget created false research. False research is common on Wallstreet in my humble opinion.

    Oil Fundementals suggested throughout the year that oil prices should be $60 a barrel based on true supply numbers, right where it is now.

  167. BC Bob says:

    “Th O-word is still moderated?”

    Infinity.

  168. Tom says:

    Anybody know of a good house in a nice NNJ neighborhood within an hour commute to midtown at or under $400k? And reasonable taxes.

  169. Al says:

    Technically Oil is yesterdays technology that hasn’t been replaced yet and in 15 years will begin to look like the steam engine of our great grand parents. Its starting to look that way now.

    Huh – ???

    And whats today’s??? I still do nto see viable alternative in the next 20 years to replace burning of fossil fuels.

    If you say Nuclear – you must agree that Nuclear Power Plant will be built within a mile from were you live.

  170. Stu says:

    Tom(171),

    Try Clifton. I know some decent Realtors who live there as well.

  171. John says:

    Is Genworth going under? They are like 99 cents a share yet as little as 30 days ago they seem to have a lot of cash. A lot of people in CT work there and have good jobs.

  172. Clotpoll says:

    John (19)-

    There’s plenty of money to be made on the short side of transactions. Why fight the trend?

  173. RU says:

    #161 Thanks for the insight 3b. Much appreciated. Can’t imagine in this current crisis that they would split up the River Dell school district. It would just add another fiefdom in BC. This is against Corzines mission of creating shared services. My BIL works for a small PD in BC and there has been constant talk about merging with the next town over. The street officers are all for it but of course the Chief and Mayor are against it. God forbid anyone loses any power to save the taxpayers some money.

  174. make money says:

    Mitchel,

    where do you keep you money. What have you bought the last 6 months?

    let me guess, you book is up 20% ytd

  175. kettle1 says:

    AL,

    if you actually consider all of the negative pollution type aspects then you are much safer living within 1 mile of a nuclear plant then a coal power plant.

  176. kettle1 says:

    Does anyone on here have the Burlington sales data numbers similar to what rich puts up for bergen county?

    who on here has south jersey MLS access?

  177. 3b says:

    #176 RU: It may not actually be dissolved, but this is the road they have to take to address the funding inequity.

    Oradell sends far fewer kids to the system than does RE, yet Oradell’s share of the budget comes out to 6k more per student a year, than does RE.

    This is what Oradell wants addressed. At some point it will be addressed. And it will be at the expense of RE, meaning taxes will rise even more, as RE will now shoulder more of the burden as they send far more kids to the RD system.

  178. max says:

    Tom you want a house or Town house

  179. kettle1 says:

    Al,

    Why worry about nuclear plants, Coal plants release way more radioactive material then nuclear plants do…..


    “Using these data, the releases of radioactive materials per typical plant can be calculated for any year. For the year 1982, assuming coal contains uranium and thorium concentrations of 1.3 ppm and 3.2 ppm, respectively, each typical plant released 5.2 tons of uranium (containing 74 pounds of uranium-235) and 12.8 tons of thorium that year. Total U.S. releases in 1982 (from 154 typical plants) amounted to 801 tons of uranium (containing 11,371 pounds of uranium-235) and 1971 tons of thorium. These figures account for only 74% of releases from combustion of coal from all sources. Releases in 1982 from worldwide combustion of 2800 million tons of coal totaled 3640 tons of uranium (containing 51,700 pounds of uranium-235) and 8960 tons of thorium.”

    http://www.ornl.gov/info/ornlreview/rev26-34/text/colmain.html

  180. skep-tic says:

    Law Firms Feel Strain of Layoffs and Cutbacks

    “The last time we saw anything like this, this bad, was in the early ’90s,” Ms. Miller said. “But it’s starting to feel even worse.”

    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/12/business/12law.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&hp

  181. reinvestor101 says:

    Paulson is changing his mind again, dammit. I’m just so ticked off right now, I don’t know what to do. Nothing is working–absolutely nothing. My real estate is down, my financial investments are down and the damn jobs are drying up.

    Tell you what, they should just take that 700 billion and divide it by 250 million people and just give me my damn $ 3.0 million share directly and let me save my own ass. Just give me my damn money and I’ll take care of what I need to take care of. Nice and simple.

  182. kettle1 says:

    uhoh, trouble in the father land….

    does russia make it to Xmas without a currency collapse?

    Russia lifts rates to 12% to save rouble as crisis deepens

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/3442376/Russia-lifts-rates-to-12pc-to-save-rouble-as-crisis-deepens.html
    “The devaluation has begun,” said Lars Christensen, Russia strategist at Danske Bank. “The rouble has fallen out of its basket against the euro and the dollar. Russia is facing a serious confidence crisis and this could set off a self-fulfilling panic. What is clear is that economy is slowing drastically.” Chris Weafer, strategist at UralSib, said there were echoes of the 1998 crisis. “If people lose confidence, we could have a massive run on the banks as we saw twice in the nineties: then the game is up,” he told Bloomberg.

    Russia is battening down the hatches for a deep slump. It has downgraded is oil forecast to $50 a barrel next year, a level that will play havoc with the state finances. Expecting trouble, the Kremlin has mobilised the police to crush dissent. “Anti-crisis groups have been set up in the regions to intercept any early indications of destabilisation,” said President Dmitry Medvedev. “If anyone tries to exploit the financial crisis, the authorities should bring criminal charges. We don’t want a return to the 1990s when everything was seething,” he said.

  183. x-underwriter says:

    (184)reinvestor101
    I couldn’t agree with you more.
    I don’t think this guy really knows what he’s doing.
    You don’t ask a country for $700 billion and then change your mind abuot what to do with it

    They should give it away as free downpayments to first time homebuyers..will do more to prop up real estate than saving some bankers A$$

  184. grim says:

    So Paulson admits that the TARP program failed.

    Amazing.

    Good thing we have Plan U to save us.

  185. Barbara says:

    I’m feeling so nostalgic lately what with this collapsing economy/real estate market and high unemployment that I went and bought myself a pair of Bass Weejuns in black patent.
    I’m reliving my late 80s Ska Girl days, rolled up jean and everything.
    Now Hammer pants, no. Just no.

  186. Al says:

    kettle1 Says:
    November 12th, 2008 at 2:17 pm
    AL,

    if you actually consider all of the negative pollution type aspects then you are much safer living within 1 mile of a nuclear plant then a coal power plant.

    I am not arguing on whats better, but public perception and long term storage of nuclear waste make nuclear energy in USA a losing proposition.

    As far as radioactive materials from coal – not the biggest threat. Actually fime particulate, polyaromatic compounds and mercury/lead are a lot bigger health risk.

    My point was – there is no viable alternative right now to replace burniong of fossil fuels in the next 20 years.

    alternative energy is the way to reduce it somewhat, but not to replace it.

    As far as alternative fuels (biofuels) are concerned – it is the biggest Scam of all times. In the end implementing and using them increases total emissions, raises food prices and requires new infrastructure for possibility of replacing only 15% of total gasoline usage at BEST CASE SCENARIO. (that is if ALL USA FARMLAND CONVERTED INTO BIOFUELS, and NO FOOD PRODUCED)

  187. grim says:

    So the bailout to end all bailouts was basically a worthless exercise.

    Given the reluctance to disclose assets, I wonder if the TARP actually bought any assets.

  188. chicagofinance says:

    Tom Says:
    November 12th, 2008 at 2:10 pm
    Anybody know of a good house in a nice NNJ neighborhood within an hour commute to midtown at or under $400k? And reasonable taxes.

    Tom: fish around Woodbridge….it ain’t nice, it ain’t pretty, it’s near areas that are not so nice, it’s crowded as hell….that said, it is convenient, and close to every road you can possibly think of so you can get away…..

  189. make money says:

    The most remarkable aspect of the Chinese stimulus plan is its enormous size. Despite the massive publicity surrounding its formidable growth rate, the Chinese economy is still ‘only’ one-fifth the size of America’s. Relative to its economy, China’s stimulus package would be the equivalent of a $3 trillion package in America.

    The Bush-Greenspan asset booms were so extreme, and the resulting deleveraging so massive, that government actions in multiples of trillions of dollars are needed to make any meaningful impact in slowing the asset bust.

    Based on this yardstick we can see that the differences in the Chinese and American approaches could not be more dramatic. The divergence bodes ill for the future.

    The impact equivalent of China’s package of $3 trillion is 17.4 times that of America’s $172 billion. Of course, this does not include the $700 billion Bush TARP that was agreed to by Congress last month. But then, China did not have a financial system which needed a massive taxpayer bailout.

    Although some Chinese investors may have been taken in by smart Wall Street salesmen peddling mortgage backed securities, the scale of these investments does not present systemic risk to China’s financial markets.

    China has announced that the lion’s share of its stimulus spending will focus on modernizing the infrastructure of its country in preparation for challenging America as a super power in just a few more years.

    In contrast, the focus of the Bush Administration plan is to boost consumer spending. America’s decaying infrastructure has been virtually ignored. This will render America’s economy ever less competitive in an increasingly competitive world.

    Even the follow-up packages in America are likely to throw increasing amounts of taxpayer money at highly leveraged banks and failed corporations, like General Motors.

    When the world recovers from the looming depression, China will emerge greatly strengthened and as a far more serious challenger for super power status.

    Since the ancient times of Babylon, super power status also has been reflected in any ‘uber’ nation’s currency. While China’s economy is dominated by roaring manufacturing and infrastructure development, America’s economy is comprised of 72 percent by consumers. In reality, America is consuming more than it produces and is eroding its national wealth at an alarming rate.

    In contrast, emerging nations like Brazil, Russia, India, and China (the so-called BRIC nations) are producing far more than they consume and are creating real wealth in the process. It follows that BRIC corporations and even their currencies should be attractive long-term investments, relative to those of the United States.

    On November 15th, the G-20 leaders meet in Washington to discuss threats faced by the world economy. Today, there is decreasing faith in paper currency. The G-20 leaders must address this crucial problem. It may well be that they seize this opportunity to establish an international currency, under the auspices of the IMF, but linked to Gold.

    Should they fail, a resurgent China can be expected to veto any subsequent attempts in an effort to replace the U.S. dollar with its own as the world’s key ‘anchor’ or reserve currency. Such a change in reserve status will confer on China a number of competitive advantages previously reserved for America.

    Unlike America, China is unlikely to borrow to finance its stimulus package. Indeed, it is likely to spend its own national earnings rather than continue to invest in U.S. Treasuries.

    Worse still, China might even begin to sell part of its massive holdings of some $1 Trillion of U.S. Treasuries. This will put upward pressure on U.S. interest rates, tending to drive a recession into a depression.

    However it is financed, China’s stimulus package is decidedly bad news for America.

  190. Barbara says:

    I posted this a few weeks ago, but I think that if Obama would eliminate all cap gains upon sale of any real estate bought from 2008 to say 2011, including investment property and grandfather that to allow it to be passed to immediate family, it would be a nice little kicker for the side lined money.

  191. Al says:

    Tell you what, they should just take that 700 billion and divide it by 250 million people and just give me my damn $ 3.0 million share directly and let me save my own ass. Just give me my damn money and I’ll take care of what I need to take care of. Nice and simple.

    Interesting math…

    700,000,000,000$/300,000,000(USA population) = 2,333$/person.

    But Re investor of course will want 3,000,000 instead.

    What you are asking for is 100 times bigger simulous: 70o trillions – welcome to Zimbabwe!!!

  192. kettle1 says:

    The Total Pie Shrinking: Where the ‘Denominator Effect’ Lurks

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122644737388318949.html

    The “denominator effect” looms as the next force that could pressure the slumping real-estate market. Falling stock prices are leaving institutional investors overexposed to real estate, which could trigger further declines in property values as some of the market’s most-active players move to the sidelines to recalibrate their portfolios.

    Big pension funds, college endowments and insurance companies typically allocate most of their investment dollars to stocks and bonds and sometimes a smaller amount — about 6% to 10% for pension funds and as much as 30% for other institutions — to real estate. In the past decade, as real-estate values rose rapidly, many institutional investors expanded their real-estate holdings and in many cases became fully invested in the sector or close to it, bumping up against their preferred allocations. Now that stock values are beaten down, and because real estate is typically appraised only once a year and not daily like stocks, the relative size of the real-estate portfolio has grown and in many cases is now higher than the funds’ guidelines. This is known as the denominator effect.

  193. kettle1 says:

    Why Your FDIC-Backed Bank Could Fail
    by Robert Prechter

    This informative article has been excerpted from Bob Prechter’s New York Times bestseller Conquer the Crash. Unlike recent news articles that are responding to the banking crisis, it was published in 2002 before anyone was even talking about bank safety.

    Between 1929 and 1933, 9000 banks in the United States closed their doors. President Roosevelt shut down all banks for a short time after his inauguration. In December 2001, the government of Argentina froze virtually all bank deposits, barring customers from withdrawing the money they thought they had. Sometimes such restrictions happen naturally, when banks fail; sometimes they are imposed. Sometimes the restrictions are temporary; sometimes they remain for a long time.

    Why do banks fail? For nearly 200 years, the courts have sanctioned an interpretation of the term “deposits” to mean not funds that you deliver for safekeeping but a loan to your bank. Your bank balance, then, is an IOU from the bank to you, even though there is no loan contract and no required interest payment. Thus, legally speaking, you have a claim on your money deposited in a bank, but practically speaking, you have a claim only on the loans that the bank makes with your money.

    If a large portion of those loans is tied up or becomes worthless, your money claim is compromised. A bank failure simply means that the bank has reneged on its promise to pay you back. The bottom line is that your money is only as safe as the bank’s loans. In boom times, banks become imprudent and lend to almost anyone. In busts, they can’t get much of that money back due to widespread defaults. If the bank’s portfolio collapses in value, say, like those of the Savings & Loan institutions in the U.S. in the late 1980s and early 1990s, the bank is broke, and its depositors’ savings are gone.

    Because U.S. banks are no longer required to hold any of their deposits in reserve, many banks keep on hand just the bare minimum amount of cash needed for everyday transactions. Others keep a bit more. According to the latest Fed figures, the net loan-to-deposit ratio at U.S. commercial banks is 90 percent. This figure omits loans considered “securities” such as corporate, municipal and mortgage-backed bonds, which from my point of view are just as dangerous as everyday bank loans. The true loan-to-deposit ratio, then, is 125 percent and rising. Banks are not just lent to the hilt; they’re past it.

    Some bank loans, at least in the current [2002] benign environment, could be liquidated quickly, but in a fearful market, liquidity even on these so-called “securities” will dry up. If just a few more depositors than normal were to withdraw money, banks would have to sell some of these assets, depressing prices and depleting the value of the securities remaining in their portfolios. If enough depositors were to attempt simultaneous withdrawals, banks would have to refuse. Banks with the lowest liquidity ratios will be particularly susceptible to runs in a depression. They may not be technically broke, but you still couldn’t get your money, at least until the banks’ loans were paid off.

    You would think that banks would learn to behave differently with centuries of history to guide them, but for the most part, they don’t. The pressure to show good earnings to stockholders and to offer competitive interest rates to depositors induces them to make risky loans. The Federal Reserve’s monopoly powers have allowed U.S. banks to lend aggressively, so far without repercussion. For bankers to educate depositors about safety would be to disturb their main source of profits.

    The U.S. government’s Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation guarantees to refund depositors’ losses up to $100,000, which seems to make safety a moot point. Actually, this guarantee just makes things far worse, for two reasons. First, it removes a major motivation for banks to be conservative with your money. Depositors feel safe, so who cares what’s going on behind closed doors? Second, did you know that most of the FDIC’s money comes from other banks? This funding scheme makes prudent banks pay to save the imprudent ones, imparting weak banks’ frailty to the strong ones. When the FDIC rescues weak banks by charging healthier ones higher “premiums,” overall bank deposits are depleted, causing the net loan-to-deposit ratio to rise.

    This result, in turn, means that in times of bank stress, it will take a progressively smaller percentage of depositors to cause unmanageable bank runs. If banks collapse in great enough quantity, the FDIC will be unable to rescue them all, and the more it charges surviving banks in “premiums,” the more banks it will endanger. Thus, this form of insurance compromises the entire system. Ultimately, the federal government guarantees the FDIC’s deposit insurance, which sounds like a sure thing. But if tax receipts fall, the government will be hard pressed to save a large number of banks with its own diminishing supply of capital. The FDIC calls its sticker “a symbol of confidence,” and that’s exactly what it is.

  194. Al says:

    regarding post #193 – are we going to see World-Wide hyperinflation and de-globalization as all currencies will worth nothing??????

  195. Clotpoll says:

    yikes (137)-

    The chances of that are absolutely zero.

  196. RU says:

    #180 3b, Got it now. I remember reading about that. I’m curious as to much bigger RE is than Oradell. I’ll have to look it up. Any info. what percent RE sends to River Dell as compared to Oradell?

  197. ben says:

    “if you actually consider all of the negative pollution type aspects then you are much safer living within 1 mile of a nuclear plant then a coal power plant.”

    it doesn’t matter. When the general public hears the word “nuclear” they picture Hiroshima and the 3 eyed fish from the Simpsons. General ignorance and perception stand in the way of nuclear power.

  198. All Hype says:

    John (108):

    Very funny post. I had a good laugh.

    Just to let you know, my Subaru has a new kicking Alpine sound system, you would enjoy it.

  199. Ya says:

    Yeah and I’m still seeing 500k pieces of crap on the market in Piscataway/Franklin Park.. Apparently that area is either recession-proof or comprised of people unable to differentiate between the real thing and a hologram.

    My patience is running dry…

  200. Clotpoll says:

    vodka (145)-

    Any oil price below $35 puts the tar sands operators into the red.

  201. chicagofinance says:

    chicagofinance Says:
    November 12th, 2008 at 2:33 pm
    Tom Says:
    November 12th, 2008 at 2:10 pm
    Anybody know of a good house in a nice NNJ neighborhood within an hour commute to midtown at or under $400k? And reasonable taxes.

    Tom: fish around Woodbridge….it ain’t nice, it ain’t pretty, it’s near areas that are not so nice, it’s crowded as hell….that said, it is convenient, and close to every road you can possibly think of so you can get away…..

    Close to 287/440/NJTP/GSP/US1-9; access to NYC/the Shore/NNJ/SoNJ-Phila/SI-Bklyn-LI; two major scale malls; two major NJ Transit lines; every chain restaurant up and down scale

  202. Barbara says:

    my issue with nuclear power is what happens when we no longer have the political will to fiscally fund the safety of these many plants (that were proposed). We Americans have swiss cheese memories and fickle politics. Remember those outdated levies?
    Just sayin

  203. ben says:

    “Paulson is changing his mind again, dammit. I’m just so ticked off right now, I don’t know what to do. Nothing is working–absolutely nothing. My real estate is down, my financial investments are down and the damn jobs are drying up.

    Tell you what, they should just take that 700 billion and divide it by 250 million people and just give me my damn $ 3.0 million share directly and let me save my own ass. Just give me my damn money and I’ll take care of what I need to take care of. Nice and simple.”

    Rofl, wasn’t it you screaming we needed a bailout 2 months ago? Btw, 700 billion divided by 250 million is a few thousand. Not 3 million. Not that you haven’t lost all credibility on this forum already but seriously…do you even think before you post? How could you possibly think the bailout could be that high per person? 3 million is about 80-100 times the average American’s salary. By your math, we could pay off the bailout by the year 2108.

  204. #202 – chifi – Wegmans, don’t forget about the Wegmans. That’s a major plus.

  205. skep-tic says:

    I will take nuclear power over perpetual darkness with its concomitant hoards of zombies and vampires.

  206. ben says:

    “my issue with nuclear power is what happens when we no longer have the political will to fiscally fund the safety of these many plants (that were proposed). We Americans have swiss cheese memories and fickle politics. Remember those outdated levies?
    Just sayin”

    Umm, the power company itself will be forced to fund the safety. No worker is going to go to work at a nuclear power plant that has serious safety issues.

  207. kettle1 says:

    Clott,

    a recent article suggested that mnay tar sands operations are already in the red and only look good due to fancy accounting… Things like waste disposal and land remediation have been massively understated

    ———
    barbara

    the solutions to those issues is not the hard part. Public perception is.

  208. Barbara says:

    vampires are sexy! Or at least, that’s what HBO would have us believe

  209. BC Bob says:

    “So Paulson admits that the TARP program failed.”

    JB,

    Not exactly. More to do with the Freedom of Information Act and Bloomberg’s suit forcing the fed to be transparent.

  210. Barbara says:

    Kettle, my perception is the we as a people lack the political maturity to properly oversee the safe functioning of an energy grid saturated with small nuclear plants across the country.

  211. 3b says:

    #201 RU: The cost per pupil for RE at River Dell is 14k per year.

    The cost for Oradell is 20k per year, but Oradell sends 265 less kids to the sysem than RE. Big difference.

  212. BC Bob says:

    Now 50.5 is joining the revolution?

  213. hughesrep says:

    205

    Wegman’s is expanding quite a bit down the East Coast and into PA. Being that they are a bit pricey compared to “regular” grocery stores I’ll be interested to see how well they fair in an economic downturn.

    They also have a reputation for being a great place to work. We’ll see if that survives too.

  214. Clotpoll says:

    Just covered all my shorts. Things getting a little toppy.

    No disclaimers. The world is about to end, so I can say any damn thing I want.

  215. Barbara says:

    211. What happens when the “but we’re losing money, we can’t afford these updates and pesky over regulation”
    whining kicks in in about 20 years?
    Hello political football.

  216. Clotpoll says:

    BC (217)-

    The revolution won’t have him.

  217. Barbara says:

    218,
    they have the prettiest steaks at Wegmans

  218. Al says:

    Tom: fish around Woodbridge….it ain’t nice, it ain’t pretty, it’s near areas that are not so nice, it’s crowded as hell….that said, it is convenient, and close to every road you can possibly think of so you can get away…..

    I rent in Colonia, I would vouch for every word below:
    it ain’t nice, it ain’t pretty, it’s near areas that are not so nice, IT’S CROWDED AS HELL….

    In addition – some area’s are quite safe some are not soo, some are 100% Indian, high schools are so-so.

    Need to literally look at neighborhood on per/block bases as changes from one block to another are very drastic.

    In my opinion – very overpriced and will go quite a bit down in quality of life once full effect of real estate crush is felt.

    But it is quite convinient for both NYC comuters and NJ comuters.

  219. kettle1 says:

    Barb,

    if you are willing to spend the money upfront then you can design a very high level of inherent long term safety into a design.

    if you look at it in terms of medical effects of radioactive releases relative to chemical releases from industry, nuclear is far safer and cleaner, in the US anyway. DOnt ever google “Mayak” or “lake Karachay” if nuclear scares you

  220. BC Bob says:

    “Just covered all my shorts. Things getting a little toppy.”

    Clot,

    Just don’t pack away your shorts for the winter.

  221. Barbara says:

    Speaking of Woodbridge , for a little less house and a little more cash, try Metuchen. Cute as hell and good schools. Train station and close to all highways just like Woodbridge. I’m still priced out of Metuchen for the kind of house I want but I wouldn’t mind living there.

  222. hughesrep says:

    222

    Yes they do. When I was a single man I was on a first name basis with the guys in the butcher shop and the girls in the prepared foods section.

    If they only had beer it would have been one stop shopping. Damn Jersey laws.

  223. 3b says:

    #226 Barbara:I’m still priced out of Metuchen for the kind of house I want

    Not for much longer.

  224. Al says:

    Speaking of Woodbridge , for a little less house and a little more cash, try Metuchen. Cute as hell and good schools. Train station and close to all highways just like Woodbridge. I’m still priced out of Metuchen for the kind of house I want but I wouldn’t mind living there.

    Make it For a little less House and A LOT MORE CASH!!! AND VERY COWDED. But people are nice, township is nice good schools.

    If you are looking at Metuchen Look also at Cranford, Clark, Fanwood, Scotch plains, North Edison and … Westfield. (400k Might get you something decent in all of these towns now… Depending on your definition of Decent).

  225. Al says:

    Crowded even

  226. Barbara says:

    228 3b
    Promised promises. I’m counting on you guys being right about everything :)

  227. Qwerty says:

    kettle1 @ 2:37pm,

    FDIC insurance will not “fail” — the government will simply print money to infinity.

  228. #222 – They do. Their produce is usually great as well, and they tend to have interesting stuff in the international section.
    Their bakery dept. leaves a bit to be desired though.
    They kick the cr*p out of WholeFoods

  229. RU says:

    Tom, May want to look at Lyndhurst or Rutherford. Both are easy commuter towns to NY by train. Taxes are better in Lyndhurst b/c of the office buildings in the Meadowlands. School system in Lyndhurst is not the greatest but far from the worst. Rutherford has better schools but their taxes are ballooning up. Basically you are 15 minutes away from everything (malls, NY, airport, etc.)

  230. 3b says:

    #231 Barbara:I’m counting on you guys being right about
    everything :)

    There is no reason why we are not right, at least bout real estate. We have history on our side.

    It happened before, it is happening again.

  231. grim says:

    From Reuters:

    Morgan Stanley plans broad job cuts

    Morgan Stanley plans to cut 10 percent of staff in its institutional securities unit and 9 percent in asset management, it said on Wednesday, as it copes with a deteriorating economy, disrupted capital markets and falling asset values.

    The cuts are in addition to roughly 4,800 jobs eliminated since the middle of 2007 by what was once Wall Street’s second-largest investment bank.

  232. 3b says:

    #234 RU: For a numebr of reasons, I am staying with RE. But if I was just starting out it would not be a choice.

  233. Stu says:

    Clot:

    Just covered all your shorts? Really???

    Smart move IMO.

    I am completely bored. Have almost nothing working short and long.

  234. 3b says:

    #236 grim: Maybe frank can scoop them up. I am assuming they all have “ze papers”.

  235. Barbara says:

    How would you describe Linden? I don’t know it well be it kinda of looks like a sanctuary compared to what is around it.
    Thoughts?

  236. Clotpoll says:

    Stu (238)-

    Hell, I only covered 20 minutes ago, and I’m itching to get short again.

  237. Victorian says:

    Clot –
    Options expiry week behind your decision?

  238. Clotpoll says:

    I may have to get a little taste of this spicy little sausage:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=bgz&d=t

    3x short. God, I love America!

  239. Clotpoll says:

    vic (242)-

    Nope. More just the feeling that I’ll leave the last 5% of a move for others to fight over.

    I don’t need to catch the first or the last of a big momentum play. Just give me the middle part.

  240. Sean says:

    re:# 244 – Ah more derivative securities that add even more leverage just what we needed.

    How about a 30-1 or 40-1 leverage like the Hedge funds were getting?

  241. Clotpoll says:

    Sean (246)-

    I’d lever 30x-40x against an unwinding carry…any day of the week.

    Hell, I’d go 50x-60x if anybody would let me. That battleship has turned, and it’s not gonna turn again anytime soon.

    Damn, I almost forgot: I have a LOC against my office building. Is it time to use it, before I lose it? :)

  242. RU says:

    #237 Thanks 3b. It’s going to be somewhere around there in BC. RE seems like the most reasonably priced overall in Northern BC especially towns with good school systems. Looked at Dumont but taxes are ridiculous and increasing. Prices in Paramus are still too high (b/c of stable taxes). We’ll see what happens. Don’t really want to go the starter home route. Prefer to have something that I can stay in for the next 30 years until I retire.

  243. BC Bob says:

    Clot,

    I covered my fav short, BC [no pun]. Need a suckers rally, big, now.

  244. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    Boehner Demands Fed Identify Recipients of Loans

    House Republican leader John Boehner called for the Federal Reserve to disclose the recipients of almost $2 trillion of emergency loans from American taxpayers and the troubled assets the central bank is accepting as collateral.

    Boehner, in a prepared statement, also asked the Federal Reserve to comply with a Freedom of Information Act request requesting details about the loans.

    The Fed “should comply with this Freedom of Information Act request, and in the interest of full and fair disclosure, they must begin providing lawmakers and taxpayers all information about how they are using federal tax dollars,” Boehner said.

    Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said in September they would comply with congressional demands for transparency in a $700 billion bailout of the banking system. Two months later, as the Fed lends far more than that in separate rescue programs that didn’t require approval by Congress, there is little disclosure about how the programs are being implemented.

    Bloomberg News has requested details of the Fed lending under the U.S. Freedom of Information Act and filed a federal lawsuit Nov. 7 seeking to force disclosure.

    A spokesman for the Federal Reserve didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.

  245. Clotpoll says:

    Still trying to get my brain around how the hell Klink is going to set up a scheme that will lure private investors into buying consumer debt, car loans and student loans.

    Aren’t all of those guys still reeling from the collapse of the ARS market? Aren’t they all still locked into shit they couldn’t get out of when the ARS auctions stopped?

    Am I a dolt to even ask these questions? Are there answers I’m missing?

  246. grim says:

    I covered my fav short, BC

    Just took a gander over at the ticker, somebody kicked them in the shorts.

  247. grim says:

    Still trying to get my brain around how the hell Klink is going to set up a scheme that will lure private investors into buying consumer debt, car loans and student loans.

    Did Klink just say ‘to hell with the mortgage market’?

  248. kettle1 says:

    was this already posted????

    less then 10% of the treasuries sold…….

    —————–

    On November 10, 2008, the Federal Reserve conducted an auction of $150 billion in 17-day credit through its Term Auction Facility. This was a forward auction designed to provide term funding over year-end–the awarded loans will settle on December 22, 2008. Following are the results of the auction:

    Stop-out rate: 0.528 percent

    Total propositions submitted: $12.629 billion
    Total propositions accepted: $12.629 billion
    Bid/cover ratio: 0.08

    Number of bidders: 16

    The awarded loans will mature on January 8, 2009. The stop-out rate shown above will apply to all awarded loans.

    Institutions that submitted winning bids will be contacted by their respective Reserve Banks by 11:30 a.m. EST on November 12, 2008. Participants have until 12:30 p.m. EST on November 12, 2008, to inform their local Reserve Bank of any error.

    http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20081112a.htm

  249. Clotpoll says:

    BC (249)-

    Yup. I even covered my fave, WBD. Bet even the Russkies can get a sucker rally going.

    As long as they can get their market open at all…

    Man, that BC chart is pure nasty.

  250. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    GE says feds will guarantee new GE Capital debt: WSJ

  251. BC Bob says:

    Ain’t that special?

    “Nov. 12 (Bloomberg) — General Electric Co. said the U.S. government agreed to insure as much as $139 billion in debt for lending arm GE Capital Corp., the second time in a month it has turned to a federal program designed to help companies during a global credit crunch.”

    “Granting GE Capital, which isn’t a bank, access to a new Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. program may reassure investors and help the unit compete with banks that already have government protection behind their debt, said Russell Wilkerson, a spokesman for the Fairfield, Connecticut-based company. Coverage would be for about $139 billion, or 125 percent of total senior unsecured debt outstanding as of Sept. 30 and maturing by June 30.”

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a59q5TXyQY8E&refer=home

  252. grim says:

    Is it almost time for the opening bell? What time do they open the market nowadays? 3:45?

  253. BC Bob says:

    “Man, that BC chart is pure nasty.”

    Clot,

    Boats, financed by hel’s. Thank you very much.

  254. All Hype says:

    GE says feds will guarantee new GE Capital debt: WSJ
    _________________________________________________

    Grim, I think that GE is circling the drain right now.

  255. Stu says:

    BCBob,

    I saw the name and thought it was the bowling company :P

  256. reinvestor101 says:

    Tell you what, I didn’t miscalculate 700B/250M. I want my damn $3.0 million for coming up with the idea. It’s far more stimulative to give $ 3.0 million to me than this stunt Paulson’s trying to pull now. Hell, he got a chance to do it right and couldn’t make up his damn mind. I’ve lost patience with that shlt and as far as I’m concerned right now, to hell with GM and the rest of em. JUST GIVE ME MY DAMN MONEY!

  257. grim says:

    I saw the name and thought it was the bowling company :P

    It is, Brunswick Bowling & Billiards is a subsidiary. They also own a few gym-related brands, Life Fitness and Hammer Strength. And of course, the boats.

  258. Victorian says:

    Clot (255)-

    WBD should be WTF!! Where did you find such a gem??
    Russian Food Processing company – why is it dropping like a rock? Website looks like it was designed by Frank.

  259. Clotpoll says:

    Tard (262)-

    Nice to see you’re back on your game.

  260. Stu says:

    ChiFi asked a question during the panic in October.

    Recession or depression?

    What do you all think? I was always in the deep recession camp, but considering what I’ve seen over the last few months, I’m feeling 50/50 about which it will be.

  261. still_looking says:

    bailed my skf too soon I guess…

    sl

  262. BC Bob says:

    stu [261],

    I see JB has answered. Yes, boats, bowling, fitness, billards, etc..

  263. BC Bob says:

    Stu [266],

    IMO, a mini D. Much worse than 2001/1990. Not as bad as the Big D. I think?

  264. Stu says:

    BCBob,

    Just another way of playing the anti-consumer discretionary game I suppose.

    Nice to see how smart you all are with locking in your gains.

    I too eagerly await the Bi inspired rally.

  265. Clotpoll says:

    vic (264)-

    Sick thing is, I rode this dog up to a ten-bagger during the bubble. The whole company was founded by- and is run by- Russian mobsters.

    It’s like a gang of stupid Roman Abramoviches.

    Think WBD blows? Check out MTL or ROS. No bigger bowsers exist. When the Russian market gets shut down, everybody fades them on the NYSE. Total bloodbath.

  266. Zack says:

    #362 – That’s $3000 and not $3MM. You have lost your mind. Go back to sleep

  267. grim says:

    I’m not one for puns, but the boats really did sink them.

  268. Clotpoll says:

    Wimm-Bill-Dann is how these idiots thought you spell “Wimbledon”.

  269. Victorian says:

    sl (267)-

    I heard an amazing quote from a successful trader on TV (don’t remember his name). He was asked how did he get so rich? – “I always sold too early”

    From that time onwards, I don’t feel bad about missing out so much.

  270. BC Bob says:

    50.5,

    You’ve been upgraded, 75.75.

  271. Clotpoll says:

    sl (267)-

    Don’t worry. Another entry point will present itself anywhere from the next 10 minutes to 24 hours.

    More fun than roulette!

  272. Clotpoll says:

    grim (258)-

    I prefer the NBA game analogy. All you need to watch is the last 15 minutes.

  273. grim says:

    I heard an amazing quote from a successful trader on TV (don’t remember his name). He was asked how did he get so rich? – “I always sold too early”

    Was it Baruch or JP?

  274. BC Bob says:

    JB [273],

    Yes. Their boats are sitting, under a tarp [no pun] in a driveway of a underwater homeowner. The same homeowner that the architect’s want to throw a lifeline.

  275. Stu says:

    SRS touched 174!

  276. still_looking says:

    vic, thanks! I’m still astounding at all this…. what a great quote!!

    clot, thanks, too….I know… I’m just too wobbly kneed for some of this… but I can tell you that I fear buy-

    my “long” portfolio looks like a maxi pad.

    sl

  277. BC Bob says:

    Vic [275],

    The most successful trader/investor that I ever knew, the old copper trader. His secret? Always sold too soon and bought too late.

  278. still_looking says:

    that was supposed to be

    I fear buy and hold is dead for the next few years….

    …no idea how that happened….eesh.

    sl

  279. Clotpoll says:

    BC (280)-

    The architects are now trying to figger out a way to sell more loans…to a new crop of deadbeats…to buy some more boats…that will all end up under a tarp…in the driveway of houses with defaulted mortgages.

    Hamster on a wheel.

  280. Clotpoll says:

    sl (284)-

    This isn’t even a trader’s market. It’s gambling right now, pure and simple.

    Just try to catch the momentum & ride it to the shore. Fundamentals are out the window.

  281. Clotpoll says:

    I like gambling. Gambling is fun.

  282. BC Bob says:

    Funny, not a whisper out of Bi today, nor any other day the market drops, regarding Morgan’s sentiment on the market.

  283. Victorian says:

    Grim (279) –
    “Was it Baruch or JP?”
    Googled it – Bernard Baruch, the great stock investor of the 1930s

  284. kettle1 says:

    A New Specter: Deflation

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/11/09/AR2008110901897.html

    Until recently, the idea that deflation — the decline of most prices — was possible, let alone a potential economic danger, seemed outlandish. If anything, inflation was the threat. Led by rising oil and food prices, it was increasing in most countries. But in the past two months, deflation has suddenly become conceivable, and, though still a long shot, it’s much more menacing than most people realize. The most urgent economic task for Barack Obama and other world leaders is to prevent the long shot from happening.

  285. Victorian says:

    BTW, Brunswick Bowling has a coupon which gives you 2 hours of free bowling + rental shoes + a pitcher of Pepsi – for 6 people!

    I will post the coupon in the evening. Can’t access it at work. Better bowl there before the shutters come down.

    I bet even Stu can’t beat that!! :)

  286. BC Bob says:

    JB [250],

    This is starting to get entertaining.

  287. skep-tic says:

    #266

    “ChiFi asked a question during the panic in October.

    Recession or depression?

    What do you all think? I was always in the deep recession camp, but considering what I’ve seen over the last few months, I’m feeling 50/50 about which it will be.”

    *******
    I do not think this will be a depression because of the actions the fed gov’t has taken and continues to take to prevent widespread banking failure. This is quite diff’t from what occurred in the early 1930s where there were massive bank failures and the gov’t took action only afterward. Obviously the manner in which the gov’t has acted leaves a lot to be desired, but at least they are not sitting on their hands.

    Right now I think there will be a bad recession, probably at least as severe as that in 1982. I think we will be in it through 2009 maybe into 2010. That is my WAG.

  288. Clotpoll says:

    Sean (291)-

    Wisdom Tree highlights:

    – “Only 13% of our loss in assets was due to redemptions. The rest were from market losses,” he added.

    – “Our operating losses are a good approximation of our cash burn position,” said Bruce Lavine, WisdomTree’s president.

  289. kettle1 says:

    from mish, and its RE related!!!!!

    CPI and CS-CPI vs. Fed Funds Rate

    On September 3, 2008 I made the claim that Real Interest Rates Are High.

    The claim was based on a belief that the “Owners Equivalent Rent” (OER), the largest component in the CPI, is wildly overstated. I have new charts to support this theory that I did not have in my previous post. First let me restate the background information.

    OER is a process in which the BEA estimates what it would cost if owners were to rent the homes they own from themselves. I do not believe this to be a valid construct of prices.

    By ignoring housing prices, the CPI massively understated inflation for years. The CPI is massively overstating inflation now.

    In normal times with rents in sync with home prices, it did not matter much if one used OER or actual home prices. It’s a remarkably different story now. We have just seen the biggest housing bubble in the history of the world. At the peak of insanity, home prices were 3 standard deviations above rental prices and 3 standard deviation above wage growth.

    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/11/cpi-and-cs-cpi-vs-fed-funds-rate.html

  290. Sean says:

    re: #293 skep-tic Job losses in 09 will make all the difference.

    Right now I am praying Al Gore invents Fusion Power just like he invented the Internet.

  291. kettle1 says:

    the great depression 2.0?

    Nope, a better example is the panic of 1873, much more similar to our situation. I do think that there are going to be a number of unexpected consequences that will exacerbate issues. Backlash against the dollar is one of those. Another is the global dependence of large scale food importing/exporting for basic sustenance. dont forget that shipping is falling apart.

    The catch i see is recovery. We are in a much worse position for a recovery compared to the 30’s

  292. kettle1 says:

    the taliban getting jealous yet?

    banning gay marriage, banning gambling, hey can we try prohibition again?

  293. Escape from NJ says:

    If they ban internet gambling does that mean my Scottrade account will be frozen?

  294. Barbara says:

    299. kettle
    a fleeced lined burka looks cozy on those cold NYC Febs.

  295. kettle1 says:

    when does STATE failure friday start?

    “According to a report Tuesday by the Legislative Analyst’s Office, California can expect a shortfall in revenues over the next 20 months that will require nearly $28 billion in budget solutions. Without corrective action, the state will face shortfalls of roughly $22 billion yearly stretching into 2014, according to the nonpartisan LAO….California spends $11 billion yearly on higher education and $8 billion on criminal justice. Yet the state could close down all its universities, colleges and prisons and still not come close to bringing spending in line with revenues.”

  296. chicagofinance says:

    Methinks we are getting closer and closer to needing to write off 2009…..

    That said, we are so beaten to sh-t that all we need is a sunny day for a rally…..

    I can double talk everything to death. In reality, I only care about the NYC-area.

    If so, I say that there will be an ominous black cloud hanging over Manhattan during 2009-2010. That said, the stock market will have to deal with that fact. Now, that hardly means that stocks and other structures are shaboinked. I assume that there will be a catalyst that will drag us off the bottom within the next three to six months, but after a sugar rush, no meaningful upside until this time next year.

    The thing gnawing at me is that I feel as if there is some major f— up coming in the next few weeks. I can’t put my finger on what it will be though…..

  297. Essex says:

    290…now that is a gtg I would attend….BOWLING….

    P.S. LebowskiFest in NYC this weekend…Dude.

  298. John says:

    Wow KPMG in NY office gave 80 people boot this week. It is start of busy season but everytime a company merges one external auditor loses his job that plus zero consulting work. Like all of the big 4 they bulked up in 2004 and 2005 for sox. They only gave one week per year severance so the staff they booted wer all pretty new so most got three weeks pay severance. Ouch.

  299. HEHEHE says:

    Well we are rubbing against the October lows. Sunshine boys better hope for a bounce tomorrow or Dow 6000 here we come.

  300. Outofstater says:

    #303 ChiFi – “some major f-up” I know what you mean. This has already gotten much worse much more quickly than I expected and it’s still early. I think whatever it is will come out of nowhere and blindside all of us – that is just the nature of this thing. It’s creepy out there.

  301. #303- chifi – The thing gnawing at me is that I feel as if there is some major f— up coming in the next few weeks

    How about C finally giving up the ghost?

    I agree with you though. We’re waiting for the next leg down and wondering about the trigger.

    Also, Intel reporting; 4Q below expectations, rev of $9b vs. expectations of $10 – $10.9.

  302. Dink says:

    re: gambling

    Interestingly, lobbysists from the NFL are apparently behind much of the push to enact this legislation.

    I don’t think I’m the only one who won’t be able to stomach many NFL games if I can’t have money riding on them.

    Thankfully, knowing the ban was coming, I posititioned myself accordingly.

  303. HEHEHE says:

    Clot where did you find WBD? They putting ricin in their baby food?

  304. Clotpoll says:

    HE (311)-

    Back when BRIC was all the rage, I rode all these idiot Russian outfits to the moon. The best of all of them was Tatneft (AOTTF.PK), which went from being the top foreign ADR on the NYSE straight to the pink sheets. Had to do with something about the company not really wanting to make quarterly reports.

    I wouldn’t be surprised if WBD bought baby food from China and added ricin to it, or imported spoiled orange juice from Tropicana (something that they’ve actually been accused of doing).

    All I know is, shorting anything Russian is a better bet these days than taking the over on a Broncos game.

  305. Clotpoll says:

    Today’s installment of “Clotpoll’s Signs of the Apocalypse” (true story):

    Walking out of office. Mortgage guy in conference room, sitting with clients who’ve been approved for an FHA refi:

    Mortgage guy: “You’ve been approved, but you have to pay off these petty judgments. Most of them appear to be credit cards, balances of $200-$400, so you’re not going to have a problem here, are you?”

    Borrower: “I don’t want to do that. I’m not paying those.”

    Mortgage Guy: “Why? We got you approved…with a 56% back ratio! You may never get this chance again. You should pay them.”

    Borrower: “I really don’t want to pay them.”

    Mortgage Guy: “Why?”

    Borrower: “Because after we close on the refi, my wife’s gonna declare bankruptcy. It just seems like such a waste to have to pay them off.”

    I walked out the door and laughed so hard, I cried & nearly busted a gut.

  306. subprime man says:

    Has any one seen 77 water st. It’s totaly empty and for rent. It’s a 30 floor building.

  307. Clotpoll says:

    Think you can live without SBUX? Here’s another item to slash off the “must-have” list:

    SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) – Crocs Inc (NasdaqGS:CROX) posted a deep quarterly loss on Wednesday as sales of its colorful plastic shoes plunged and it racked up high restructuring costs, sending its shares down 37 percent in extended trade.

    The former Wall Street darling also outlined several new measures to slash costs, including shutting a Brazilian manufacturing plant and reducing capital expenditures for next year by 50 percent from 2008 levels.

    Launched in 2002, Crocs’ quirky, bright and comfortable shoes were an immediate hit, but their novelty has since waned, and the weak U.S. economy has further crimped demand and hampered investor interest in the stock.

    Since hitting a lifetime high of $75.21 in October of last year, Crocs shares have shed more than 97 percent of their value, closing at $1.90 Wednesday on Nasdaq.

  308. Barbara says:

    We need to govt bail out of Crocs. I kid.
    God, I hate those things.

  309. BC Bob says:

    “The thing gnawing at me is that I feel as if there is some major f— up coming in the next few weeks. I can’t put my finger on what it will be though…..”

    Chi [303],

    It’s here. The only question is when the market reacts, weeks, months?

    There certainly are a ton of candidates. We can all name numerous scenarios that are lurking. It took years to lever up, now the deleveraging will take years to unwind. The retracement will be equal and opposite to the deception that preceded it. I can’t imagine where the overshoot to the downside will land?

    The charade in DC has become a 3 ring circus, shoot first, ask quesions later. Throw slop against the wall, see what sticks. Hank is like a quarterback, constantly barking audibles at the line of scrimmage. The market has no idea what play he’s calling,does his offensive line? Anybody wonder why he can’t move the ball?

    Hopefully, the sun will shine for a bit, get buyers back in before another shoe/shoes drop. Getting itchy to short again at higher levels.

    Just keep your eye on the Yen/Euro cross and the spreads, Baa/treasuries. They are the thermometers of the market.

  310. kettle1 says:

    wow!!!

    The total losses to Icesave may therefore exceed the Icelandic GDP. While the amount being claimed by the UK and the Netherlands governments is unclear, it may approximate 100% of the Icelandic GDP. By comparison, the total amount of reparations payments demanded of Germany following World War I was around 85% of GDP.

    http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/2549

  311. Clotpoll says:

    vodka (319)-

    I suggest that Iceland offer up its women as slaves in order to retire debt.

  312. victorian says:

    Does this qualify as at least a minor fcuk up?

    “Intel Corporation today announced that fourth-quarter business will be below the company’s previous outlook. The company now expects fourth-quarter revenue to be $9 billion, plus or minus $300 million, lower than the previous expectation of between $10.1 billion and $10.9 billion. Revenue is being affected by significantly weaker than expected demand in all geographies and market segments. In addition, the PC supply chain is aggressively reducing component inventories.”

    http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/081112/20081112006459.html?.v=1

  313. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [153] John

    that all depends. You offering to swallow?

  314. Clotpoll says:

    Intel inside what?

  315. Shore Guy says:

    “Crocs shares have shed more than 97 percent of their value, closing at $1.90 ”

    Plastic shoes have lost their appeal? Who ever would have figured.

  316. yikes says:

    Kill GM already please!!!!

    if we want the government to pay for people to be employed then lets start a real jobs program that will produce useful results not consumer products that no one wantsand are of poor quality.

    how about we take these employees and put them to work in re-building america’s infrastructure – such as roads, bridges, tunnels, etc. it might mean they’ll have to be uprooted, but so be it.

  317. Clotpoll says:

    Okay, now this is personal. This credit crisis messes up my game, there will be hell to pay. I want my soccer bailout…NOW!!!!

    OTOH, how surprised can you be that RBS and Wachovia bankrolled two idiot Americans who knew nothing about soccer, yet decided to buy possibly the highest profile team in the world?

    “Premier League takeover broker Keith Harris believes Liverpool could go into financial meltdown in January and might be forced to sell up.

    Harris, who has masterminded deals for Chelsea, Aston Villa, Hull City, West Ham United and Manchester City and is currently seeking buyers for Newcastle United and Everton, claims that the Reds could be severely affected by the global credit crunch.

    Bickering Liverpool owners Tom Hicks and George Gillett have two months to pay back a reported £350million worth of debt and with refinancing packages and new financial stakeholders getting harder and harder to find the Merseyside club might have to offload star players to pay off the debt.

    The worse case scenario would be for the banks to consider repossessing the club if the payments cannot be met.

    “The one that worries me is Liverpool,” said Harris. “Liverpool’s debt is due in January, with maybe a six-month extension.”

    “The two banks which are the principal lenders – the Royal Bank of Scotland and Wachovia – are two of those that have suffered. Whether they want to lend it again or not, they may not be able to.”

    Harris, chairman of Seymour Pierce investment bank and a former Football League chairman, has also admitted that Everton and Newcastle are no closer to finding a buyer.

    “It has never been more difficult to find buyers,” explained Harris.

    “It’s no longer a question of price negotiation – it’s should we? People are wondering if now is the time to spend.”

  318. Clotpoll says:

    yikes (325)-

    I think the big idea should be finding a way to keep them IN Michigan…not let them out.

  319. BC Bob says:

    “NFL Cuts Playoff Ticket Prices By 10% Due to Economy”

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601079&sid=a9LXWG381ciU&refer=home

  320. victorian says:

    Here is some news from the largest consumers of gold in the world.

    “Indian markets likely to face gold shortage in future: experts ”

    “The sale of gold shot up by nearly 15 per cent in India. People have learnt that instead of investing in the stock market, which has been volatile, gold offers them steady and assured returns,” he added.

    http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/3704945.cms

  321. Clotpoll says:

    BC (328)-

    The Cardinals are gonna get a home playoff game. They’ll be giving away tickets to that stinkfest at grocery stores.

    I got to see several Oilers’ games for free during their two years in Memphis. My mom used to get free tickets at the Kroger every time she shopped on Fridays before a home game.

  322. victorian says:

    I think an entire generation in India will not invest in the stock market.

  323. Clotpoll says:

    vic (331)-

    Yeah. At the same time, you won’t be able to find an ounce of gold anywhere.

    If I were demanding a dowry, I’d drop cows and chickens from the list and go for nothing but shiny stuff.

    While holding the prospective bride hostage.

  324. Clotpoll says:

    I remember grocery stores in LA giving away Raiders’ tickets when I was living there, too.

  325. victorian says:

    Clot (332) –
    ROFL! Seriously, no one has approached you to write a book or script a sitcom?

  326. Clotpoll says:

    vic (334)-

    I tried to write a screenplay when I was in school.

    I think I’d have to cut the snuff scenes to get it produced, though. :)

  327. Clotpoll says:

    Remember that Jay-Z video from the Summer, where he was flashing Euros? I was just surfing channels and saw it on BET. I felt like I was watching a WWII newsreel.

    Euros. So 2008.

  328. victorian says:

    Clot(336) –
    I should start acting on such great contrary indicators.

  329. Clotpoll says:

    vic (337)-

    I guess the next big thing will be the rapper homeys all getting gold grills again.

    Everything that dies, someday comes back?

  330. BC Bob says:

    “I remember grocery stores in LA giving away Raiders’ tickets when I was living there, too.”

    Clot,

    I heard you accepted some of those freebies;

    http://theassociation.blogs.com/the_association/raider%20fan.jpg

  331. Clotpoll says:

    BC (339)-

    Har! Nothing’s scarier than the original, though:

    http://tinyurl.com/56ab3g

  332. BC Bob says:

    Clot [340],

    That’s frightening.

  333. Clotpoll says:

    BC (341)-

    He was my hero for a good part of my adult life.

  334. Outofstater says:

    So what are the odds that there will be a gov’t bailout of the car companies, in part to cover their “legacy costs?” So what we’ll have is taxpayers (many of whom have no health benefits) paying for other people’s gold-plated health care coverage. Yeah, that should be popular.

  335. Stu says:

    “He was my hero for a good part of my adult life.”

    That’s frightening too.

  336. Steve says:

    Clot (313),

    LOL

    Absolute insanity. It’s as if someone wrote this for Leno….you just cannot make this sh*t up

    we are truly in the Abyss, surrounded by these upstanding citizens

  337. Steve says:

    So funny, I must be ESP’d into this blog nowadays aka the Borg

    I just covered today as well, figured you only get so many Xmas gifts from Klink per month

    And as for gambling, I’ve been watching FAZ action. SKF was so yesterday. And Borgata is such a long drive on weekdays.

    Let’s face it- “investing” ain’t gonna be happening for awhile. If anyone wants to step in front of this freight train unhedged, long-only with a 1-3 yr horizon, ye are braver than I.

  338. SG says:

    http://www.philly.com/inquirer/local/nj/20081112_New_Jersey_transit_czar_calls_for_stimulus.html

    New Jersey transit czar calls for stimulus

    By Paul Nussbaum

    Inquirer Staff Writer
    As many as 10,000 New Jersey jobs can be created quickly if a federal economic-stimulus package includes money for highway projects, state Transportation Commissioner Kris Kolluri says.

  339. Pat says:

    http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=96922190

    Wall Street is littered with the resumes of former investment bankers and traders now looking for work.

  340. SG says:

    In New Jersey, Kolluri said, the economy would also get a boost from the anticipated construction of a rail tunnel under the Hudson River to New York City. That $8.7 billion project is expected to create 6,000 construction jobs and help create 44,000 permanent jobs, state officials say.

    The tunnel project’s environmental-impact statement received Federal Transit Administration approval last week, clearing the way for federal matching funds.

    Construction is expected to start next year, Kolluri said.

  341. SG says:

    “What we’re seeing is a lot of people who are homeless for the first time,” Brunner said, adding that he is having a hard time keeping his food pantry stocked. “It should be worrisome in the suburbs … It’s not just an inner city problem. It’s going to be a suburban problem.”

    http://www.nj.com/helpinghands/carlyrothman/index.ssf/2008/11/emergency_services_and_homeles.html

  342. yikes says:

    kettle1 Says:
    November 12th, 2008 at 2:37 pm

    Why Your FDIC-Backed Bank Could Fail
    by Robert Prechter

    This informative article has been excerpted from Bob Prechter’s New York Times bestseller Conquer the Crash. Unlike recent news articles that are responding to the banking crisis, it was published in 2002 before anyone was even talking about bank safety.

    Well, this will certainly make me sleep easy tonight …

    /pops 3 painkillers

  343. Steve says:

    A few other anecdotal drive-bys:

    Went to Short Hills the other day. Strangely, parking lot jam packed. Stranger still, the mall itself seemed relatively empty. I got into Joe’s for a burger in record time.

    But what blew me away, beyond belief, were the “sales” – mind you, weeks before t-day I was seeing 40%, 50%, 60% off everything in sight.

    All the sales people were accosting me, to tell me how the discount I was seeing on the signs weren’t really the whole deal, but could be combined for another 10%, 15% more on top of it.

    They were beyond desperate, almost beyond hoping to make a sale. I happened to be in need of a ton of clothes, a jacket, etc – expecting a fair amount of pain; I walked out of there feeling like I just robbed a bank. In SHORT HILLS. I’m quite sure I paid half or less what I should have, across the board. I said to myself, there’s no way in h*ll they’re making a profit.

    Three days later, brunch with friends, including a major buyer at Barneys. I relayed this story, thinking I was nuts, didn’t skip a beat, she confirmed without a doubt. They’re giving everything away, literally, doing anything to get sales. They’re all buried in inventory, ordered well before this nightmare hit.

    Staples a few days ago. $900 color laser printer (going price), same as we have at work, rebated down to $200. I was stunned. I almost bought one for the heck it, then sanity returned and I remembered I really didn’t need one, and hey, this was a recession and all.

    My god, Jan/Feb are going to be bloody. If you have things you need to buy, stores will soon be paying YOU to take the merchandise. I’m not even kidding.

  344. Punch My Ticket says:

    Clot,

    I see that signsoftheapocalypse.blogspot.com is already taken, but perhaps some variant?

    These stories should really be collected in one place.

  345. Jim says:

    Watchout NJ, Corzine is priming us for another tax increase, maybe an 8% sales tax,a higher real estate transfer tax, or the old standby a 10% real estate tax increase.
    http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2008/11/new_jerseys_budget_deficit_tri.html

    Jim

  346. Essex says:

    Second the Short Hills scene…this past weekend…never seen so much inventory packed into Nordstroms….looked like a Marshalls only nicer stuff….I think. Maybe not.

  347. Pat says:

    BC, your idol has his hairy mug on an ad themed “We can’t let this bank fail.”

    WTF? It’s for food. Why isn’t the ad, “Hungry Heart.”

    Maybe just a bad choice of words.

  348. Clotpoll says:

    Steve (351)-

    My 15 y/o daughter has been to Short Hills twice recently. She reports being treated like royalty in every store. Never happened before…

  349. SG says:

    Some 3X ETFs

    (BGU) – Large Cap Bull 3X Shares – Russell 1000
    (BGZ) – Large Cap Bear 3X Shares – Russell 1000
    (TNA) – Small Cap Bull 3X Shares – Russell 2000
    (TZA) – Small Cap Bear 3X Shares – Russell 2000
    (ERX) – Energy Bull 3X Shares – Russell 1000 Energy
    (ERY) – Energy Bear 3X Shares – Russell 1000 Energy
    (FAS) – Financial Bull 3X Shares – Russell 1000 Financial Services
    (FAZ) – Financial Bear 3X Shares – Russell 1000 Financial Services

  350. Clotpoll says:

    Don’t look now…overnight LIBOR going the wrong way again.

  351. SG says:

    Clot: Which site do you like to see LIBOR data?

  352. SG says:

    85,000 homes lost to foreclosure in October

    NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — As government and industry scrambled to stem the housing crisis, another 84,868 homes were lost to foreclosure in October, according to a report released Thursday.

    Last month 279,561 struggling borrowers received foreclosure filings, including default notices, notices of auction sales and bank repossessions, according to RealtyTrac, an online marketplace for foreclosures. That’s a 5% increase from September, and up 25% from October 2007.

    “October marks the 34th consecutive month where U.S. foreclosure activity has increased compared to the prior year,” said James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac, in a statement.

    A total of 936,439 homes have been lost to foreclosure since the housing crisis hit in August, 2007.

    Foreclosures hit a record high in August when 304,000 homes were in default and 91,000 families lost their houses. Since then, a number of states have adopted legislation to freeze foreclosures and give homeowners a chance to modify their mortgages. These laws have helped slowed the rate of foreclosures.

  353. Yikes says:

    what a joke … GMA just had 3 panelists grading Paulson’s work so far … all 3 buffoons gave him an ‘A’ or an ‘A-‘

    lapdogs
    all of them
    so sad

  354. Cindy says:

    SG (361)

    This is a site for the TED spread – cool huh..BC or Kettle told me about it..

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=.TEDSP%3AIND

  355. SG says:

    Thx Cindy

  356. Clotpoll says:

    SG (361)-

    Usually on the CNBC or Bloomberg crawl.

  357. Clotpoll says:

    Gartman thinks Tall Paul will be Treasury Sec’y.

  358. DL says:

    Former GS chairman finally uttered the word no one dare say: the D word.

  359. Cindy says:

    (367) Clot –
    “Gartman thinks Tall Paul will be Treasury Sec’y”

    Somebody with some credibility at this point would be nice…

    Check out the title of this Bloomberg piece..

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a0a_ixnWfnyk&refer=home

    “Paulson’s Credibility takes another hit with Rescue-Plan reversal”

    “This is a flip-flop, but on the other hand, when they first proposed this thing, they didn’t really know what they were doing,” said Bill Fleckenstein, president of Fleckenstein Capital Inc. in Seattle and author of the book “Greenspan’s Bubbles.” Paulson has pushed some cockamamie schemes,” he said. “So one has to ask, does he have any clue?”

    another idea…

    “He’s been in a trial by fire,” said Allan Hubbard, former director of Bush’s White House National Economic Council. “History, looking back” will say Paulson “responded as well as one could hope” under the circumstances, he said.

  360. Cindy says:

    (367) Clot

    “Gartman thinks Tall Paul will be Treasury Sec’y”

    A dream come true – credibility…

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a0a_ixnWfnyk&refer=home

    “Paulson’s credibility takes another hit with rescue-plan reversal”

  361. Cindy says:

    Grim – my 369 is in mod. – same article I just posted at 370 only with a few quotes…

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