Thu 13 Nov 2008
From the Record:
Default activity in N.J. up 75%
Foreclosure activity in New Jersey rose 75 percent in the 12 months ended in October, RealtyTrac reported today. Nationally, the total was up about 25 percent.
“October marks the 34th consecutive month where U.S. foreclosure activity has increased compared to the prior year,” said James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac, which monitors foreclosures nationwide.
One in every 410 New Jersey households received a foreclosure notice in October, compared with one in every 452 households that received a filing nationwide.
Passaic County had the highest foreclosure rate in the state, with one of every 207 housing units affected. Bergen County was seventh of the state’s 21 counties, with foreclosure affecting one in every 368 households. In Hudson County, the number was one in 518, and in Morris, one in 805.
RealtyTrac counts all stages of the foreclosure process, ranging from a lender’s notice that a homeowner is in default on mortgage payments all the way through to bank repossession. Most homeowners who receive default notices are able to avoid bank repossession of their properties.
Good Lord…..First.
frist!
damn
That would be me with my leg in the trap!
What went wrong with value funds
(Money Magazine) — Value investors have a simple, elegant strategy. They buy a stock trading cheaply relative to the company’s earnings or business value and then patiently wait for the market to catch on to how wonderful it is.
So what happens if a so-called value investment refuses to turn around and instead sinks deeper and deeper into the red? Maybe you need to wait longer. But sometimes it turns out you badly underestimated the problems with the stock - you’ve fallen into the dreaded “value trap.”
The corpses of ROS and MTL tried to rise today.
Why don’t I get it…. why does the market go down 450 points only to rebound 511 points all in one day???????
It’s such a roller coaster ride. Jeez.
Today’s rally coincided with Bush’s defense of free market capitalism.
Lena - O*bama was trying out his new PPT, they gunned it and overshot.
Bush is a rock star!!
Notice how no one is talking foreclosures on this thread yet? RE is dead in NJ.
In the end, we are all foreclosed.
I wanna stiff a creditor so badly….it’s been forever since I did so.
Got booze?
CNN) — Higher taxes on alcohol can make a night out more expensive but could save lives, according to a study released Thursday.
After Alaska raised its alcohol taxes, the number of alcohol-related deaths dropped, a study says.
Each time the state of Alaska raised its alcoholic beverage tax, fewer deaths were caused by or related to alcohol, according to the study that examined 28 years of data.
When Alaska raised its alcohol tax in 1983, deaths caused by or related to alcohol dropped 29 percent. A 2002 tax increase was followed by an 11 percent reduction, according to the study published in the American Journal of Public Health. . . .
. . . In addition to public health implications, state governments should re-examine their alcohol excise taxes on for fiscal reasons, said George Hacker, director of Alcohol Policies Project for the Center for Science in the Public Interest.
Nearly half of the states have had the same alcohol taxes for more than 20 years, and Wyoming hasn’t raised its tax on alcohol since the 1930s, thus not keeping up with inflation, Hacker said. The beer tax in Wyoming is less than 2 cents per gallon.
“Given state budgets are in the toilet bowl, it’s an available source of revenue that has not been looked to for a very long time,” Hacker said. “The tax increases are long overdue. The product doesn’t pay its way in covering economic and social costs associated with its use. . . .”
You can almost hear them salivating down in Trenton.
13…Yeah but the Meth made everyone there so alert…..
The markets should never go up 11.5% from the intra-day low in a 3 1/2 hour time period. This market totally sucks
Bought SDS this morning, moved up the sell stops to 109. Thought there’d be a boomerang but that was wicked. Some people must have made a killing today trading that momentum.
Mish has a very interesting (read: scary) post about the coming layoffs in ‘Chicago’ (replace with any other major city….)
2009 looks like it’s shaping up to be quite a year. What month will the revolution begin?
Clott, Nom
As denniger said, Tax revolts will be the first series of uprisings we will see in the US
re:7
Bush
Also, it rained
BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAAAAA
2008 BW Rankings
10. UC Berkeley (Haas)
9. MIT (Sloan)
8. Duke (Fuqua)
7. Columbia
6. Stanford
5. Michigan (Ross)
4. Pennsylvania (Wharton)
3. Northwestern (Kellogg)
2. Harvard Business School
1. University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business
vodka (18)-
All out anarchy. Coming soon to a neighborhood near you.
Can’t wait to march on Trenton. Maybe we’ll be doing it on some Xmas day in the near future.
Only need to know three numbers to get an MBA these days:
7
11
13
Nom 13 - That Alaska is the most socialist state in the country!
Hi Grim, unmod when you can.
#23
thanks
Clott,
if you would like to prepare, al queda had/has an insurgency manual up on the web somewhere. I am sure a quick google could find it…..
yep, a quick google will pull up US/UK/Canadian Counter insurgency manuals, and a few extremist insurgency manuals….
Have fun storming the castle!
Re: Volatility
One of the newsletters I subscribe to had an interesting blurb on Volatility…..
“This October there were nine days when the S&P 500 closed up or down 4% or more. In contrast, there were none between 2003 and 2007. There were three days during the entire decade of the 1950’s and two days during the 1960’s.
Only September 1932 showed volatility anything like this past month with moves of 4% up or down eight times.”
And we know what happened over the next few years in the 30’s.
Clott
there are a few school of the americas FM’s floating around too.
cheers
Clot, if you purchased pork sirloin chops on 11/10 with an 11/13 sell-by date, and you open them and they seem O.K., but the fat around the edge smells a little like bacon..like a little sour.. should they be tossed? We can’t decide, but aren’t sure.
can’t decide, but aren’t sure.
That’s prime Pat.
Pat put some BBQ sauce on them…cook them up…and take a shot of Bourbon afterward. You’ll be fine.
And, as you can tell, I did not get my MBA at one of the schools mentioned by CF.
I got mine at the Smeal Schyster School of Finagling.
I get all kinds of free stuff…like cooking advice and medical advice. So put that in your pipe and smoke it, there, Stuey. Speaking of which, good job on the smoking cessation, America. A good recession indicator.
pat (27)-
Eat them and call me in the morning. :)
I think you’re ok. The smell is likely just from being sealed in the package.
darn, posted this on the other thread without noticing there was a new one:
# yikes Says:
November 13th, 2008 at 5:42 pm
# kettle1 Says:
November 13th, 2008 at 1:31 pm
yikes 146,
careful buddy, warren buffet said that americans turning to savers wouldnt cause a serious economic problem, because we have enough growth to make up the difference ( grossly pharaphrased)
where is this “growth” you speak of? what areas?
[18] Ket,
That’s the proletariat way. The bourgeoise are fleeing stealthily, like rats from a ship that is starting to take on water.
All I can say is that it is happening. Capisce?
This is one of the downsides we’ve found to our new location.
The meat seems not as fresh as NJ/PA.
We’re tossing at least a pack a week. I could buy chops on Sunday in Wegman’s and on Thursday they’d be as fresh as a just-diapered baby.
It’s every store down here. IGA, Shoppers…
It’s true. People really do think he is the Messiah. From CNN:
“The public thinks it’s likely that O*bama will improve race relations, improve economic conditions, bring stability to the financial markets, make the U.S. safer from terrorism, reduce the country’s dependence on foreign oil, reduce global warming, win the war in Afghanistan and remove U.S. troops from Iraq without causing a major upheaval in that country.”
[18] Ket,
I posted that as a cautionary tale. Let’s see where recession pressures take wine sales, but I am keeping my ear open for future sin tax hikes, which I am surprised haven’t been coming fast and furious now. Maybe they have and I missed it.
BTW, did you ever get an order in anywhere? I did, but it remains to be seen if they deliver to me in PA.
If this won’t scare you sh*tless, i dont know what the heck will:
http://www.infowars.com/?p=5938
(was posted earlier today)
Nom,
am looking into possible alternative sources. Have a few kinks to work out for local sourcing as i discussed in a previous e-mail.
Comrade,
I know a rat or 2 myself and have seen it first hand. I dont plan on being left with the stinky cheese. Trying to corral my clan first
Nom, I hear the scary guys in black suits are finally investigating the UFO that hangs out over by the Oxford Valley Mall.
I saw the thing last year, but it was after seven straight hours of bargain shopping and then driving home without my glasses on. So it could’ve been delirium.
# Clotpoll Says:
November 13th, 2008 at 5:25 pm
vodka (18)-
All out anarchy. Coming soon to a neighborhood near you.
Can’t wait to march on Trenton. Maybe we’ll be doing it on some Xmas day in the near future.
i really hope the anarchy can hold off UNTIL AFTER we buy our house.
Yikes 32
There is no growth, except for perhaps TARP bankers or the unemployment line
————————–
Way OT,
One of my favorite video clips(SFW)…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VhEJ8gm8aL4
#20 Chi- But what was its ranking when you graduated? ;)
i’ve read enough negativity today that i’m ready to make a survival checklist. sure, the chaos and bedlam may be three years away, but there’s no harm in being prepared.
so what’s on your checklist?
- canned goods
- physical gold
- firearms
- garden in your backyard
Truthfully, i can’t see America letting it get that bad. i know they may be powerless now, but something will be done.
maybe im being naive, or hopelessly optimistic, or i just can’t picture a situation like that because i’ve never lived through one (i’m in my early 30s).
if worse comes to worse and the foreigners come calling for all that debt we owe them … what would happen if the US said, ’sorry bout your luck, buddy. not happening.’
think that’s the ace up Paulson’s sleeve?
Obama is getting ready for his first defeat before he even hits office….a bailout for the automakers…..LMFAO!!!!
Yikes(43),
Hitting the reset button would certainly be something a third world country might consider.
You know, kind of like the future U.S.-of-A
Chi (20)
Wow…first time I’ve seen that, props to ol’ Hyde Park.
Interested to see it’s now called “Booth School of Business.” Something to do with that email I got last week, re: the $300 million donation I imagine…
Time to head to House of Tikki! I always preferred Medici myself…
steve - is the reset button even feasible? has it been discussed anywhere?
Yikes
If the US defaults on foreign debts, then all foreign trade that is not conducted in gold or a highly valued foreign currency will promptly end.
If nothing else consider that the US imports a large amount of its energy…….
The prosperity of a nation can be correlated with its energy consumption in industrialized nations……
(43). Yikes
I like what Emo Philips said about our debt. The chinese will come for payment and ask “what were you spending all our money on?” And we’d answer “nuclear bombs. Want’em?”
Yikes,
I seriously doubt it, the implications of outright default would be incredibly destructive…
however, that’s not to say the govt couldn’t find a way to change the rules of the game a bit…maybe ask the Chinese to take a few writedowns of their own :)
http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/story?id=6248832
Where Did We Go Wrong?
“What it is that you knew that allowed you to be so far ahead of everyone else?” asked a genuinely curious Rep. Edolphus Towns, D-N.Y., of the witnesses, some of whose multi-billion-dollar funds had largely escaped the worst of the economic crisis so far. “Do you have any opinions on TARP?” asked Rep. Tom Davis, D-Va.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/sns-ap-mortgage-conference,0,6249305.story
Lenders criticize government’s $300 billion mortgage aid program
http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/eo20081114a1.html
“The sad truth is that the financial Humpty Dumpty cannot be put together with sticky tape after his fall. He needs intensive care and a series of major operations to become slimmer, fitter and faster to cope with a multifaceted world.”
Talking with a guy who works in a gun store. Says they are busy all day every day. They had a shipment of twenty AK-47’s which sold out in ninety minutes. Yesterday a guy came in and bought 3,000 rounds of ammo for his .357 Magnum. A little old lady in a walker (not kidding) bought a handgun and the guy also reports selling various weapons to soccer moms. Apparently they are not afraid of civil unrest; they are concerned that with the Democrats in control, the gun laws will be changed and a few seat on the Supreme Court might change and so the new restrictions would be upheld.
Tidbits from Crudlow:
-Goldilocks made a rare appearance today.
-GWB gave a stirring speech today, prasing our wonderful economy, and the virtues of American free market capitalism.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601102&sid=ae3SDvO1PUUo
Barclays Plc, Lloyds TSB Group Plc and other U.K. banks that offer payment protection insurance should be prevented from selling the product at the same time as the underlying loan, a British antitrust regulator said.
–
steve (46)-
Befitting our new Third World status, I fully expect us to eventually repudiate our debt.
But only after we create- and export around the planet- the biggest bout of hyperinflation in recorded history.
Clot,
That will be a sad day indeed. I hope we never see it - but I surely wouldn’t be betting against it, either.
I wonder if the new standard for a “riskless” security will be a Chinese t-bill…
“And, as you can tell, I did not get my MBA at one of the schools mentioned by CF.”
Pat,
Nor did I. However, I truly hope they manufacture more financial engineers. They do create enormous opportunities.
“Befitting our new Third World status, I fully expect us to eventually repudiate our debt.”
Clot.
That’s the grand plan. Does anybody really think there is a grand plan to pay this back. It has totally spun out of control.
As soon as the market demonstrates a “real” pulse, [granted in could be awhile], the dollar will spin out of control. Can’t wait for Mrs Smith, probably Mrs Hernandez, to start day trading and begin the new carry.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aouifFqWYy0M&refer=home
Yen Rises on Speculation G-20 Will Fail to Agree on Rescue Plan
Out of Worldwide - Bloomberg
Cindy (62)-
The unwind continues. This thing is going critical soon.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aouifFqWYy0M&refer=home
Worldwide Bloonberg - London
by Abigail Moses
“Paulson’t TARP Reform Spells Return of Systemic Risk, BNP says
“All 24 of the ABX indexes of credit-default swaps tied to subprime mortgage bonds fell to new lows, according to Markit Group Ltd.”
Oh great…That doesn’t sound good…
Did he have to announce they weren’t using the TARP funds for the sub-prime stuff before they had a credit-default clearing system in place?…Mannn
(63) Clot - “The unwind continues”
These jerks better talk nice this weekend.
“Yen Rises on Speculation G-20 Will Fail to Agree on Rescue Plan”
Cindy,
This will go much longer/further than most can imagine. It took years to build up this leverage. It will take years to unwind. Remember, the corresponding reaction goes much futher/longer than the delusional gains that preceded it.
On a positive note, our currency desk is crushing Mrs Wantanabe. In addition to that, the eastern Europeans, who carry a mortgage and a spec currency position, [which they are not aware of] are getting crushed.
Thankfully, the currency markets are not under the scope of the SEC. Otherwise, there would be a ban on buying the yen, yen/euro cross.
So sick and tired of this amateur-hour circus. Paulson needs to just keep his mouth shut and DO NO HARM. Well, NO MORE harm anyway.
Not hard to connect the dots to see we’ll soon be bailing General Malaise and their SUV plants, far before buying some toxic CDO sludge. Did we really need to shout it from the rooftops?
And require private capital matching- umm, little newsflash, we burned sovereign wealth funds to a crisp, they ain’t coming back. Hell Buffet charred a few billion in GS. Just where is this private capital going to come from, really? There’s only one sucker left, and he’s writing blank checks with a TARP return address.
It’s morbidly comical, really. Their lame ad-hoc attempts highlight the ineptness, which of course further undermines confidence.
(67) BC - I bet you could give me an education. Trouble is - I lack the vocabulary, backgroud knowledge, money and guts for you to waste your time with me. But I do find this all very interesting.
I thought you might like that post (dtd. 11-14) - figured it was right down your alley.
I remember you saying “watch the Yen/Euro cross.”
@69 -Well - that would be background knowledge -
What I’m trying to say BC - is “You are a great teacher and I am a marginal student.”
Who knows - Maybe something great will happen this weekend - we are in bad shape but apparently -others are even worse off than we are. Can you believe that.
Clot, re FXV
how ’bout EEV?
sl
“Solvency issues could come back into play,” Shah said in an interview. “The TARP has not helped to spur lending.”
Cindy,
The ffr has gone from 5.25 to 1.00. We have created TAF, TARP, PDCT, TSLF, CFFF, ABCPMMMFLF, etc.. All to no avail. The world is deleveraging yet the architect’s think they can reverse the great unwind. They are pissing in the wind. There is no govt in the history of mankind that has ever been successfull in reversing a business cycle. Much to the dolt’s chagrin, this will not be the first. Sure, you can delay, manipulate, cover it under a tarp, massage it, stroke it, etc.. That’s fine, but you can not reverse the cycle. The inevitable is a foregone conclusion.
By the way, what the hell is wrong with a recession. Chaos creates opportunities, press conferences create selling opportunities.
The geniuses would be better served allocating capital directly to the economy. How about a game plan to produce goods and services that somebody may want to buy. Why not create incentives for small businesse, our backbone. Can one idiot in DC stand up and create a ruckus, stop the madness. They are simply hamsters spinning out of control. Put the masses back to work, maybe,[hope & prayer] they will then be able to service their debt.
By the way, have we run out of alphabets for future liquidity vehicles?
Clotpoll Says:
November 13th, 2008 at 8:17 pm
steve (46)-
Befitting our new Third World status, I fully expect us to eventually repudiate our debt.
Too wrapped up in the Jets game to google … but what would this mean? Has this sort of thing happened before? Anywhere?
What kind of implications would happen? How would/should us, the lowly middle class, react?
i sort of just asked this, BC, but how can we (you, me, people we know) plan for this doomsday scenario?
on the good news side, relative just called me and said that they can get 1/10 oz gold coins for me. long story short, relative used to be in the jewelry biz, and we’re placing the order tomorrow. 20 coins at roughly $60 a pop …
Cindy [69].
You are more knowledgeable than 90% of the simpleton’s that I speak to on a daily basis. I would never be wasting my time with someone like yourself, thirsty for answers. That said, there is probably little that I could teach you. However, I do have a ton of questions.
One other item, you don’t need much $. Did I ever tell you what the monkey said as he was peeing over a steep cliff?
“Wow, a little pee goes a long way”
Find yourself that steep cliff and start peeing.
# Cindy Says:
November 13th, 2008 at 9:56 pm
@69 -Well - that would be background knowledge -
What I’m trying to say BC - is “You are a great teacher and I am a marginal student.”
cindy, if you are marginal, i am the kid wearing a hat low in class trying to copy off your test.
i am bookmarking most of their good posts and then re-reading them once a week and - gasp, this is losery - putting together the real good stuff in a word document.
(73) BC - I’m with you all the way on this one…
“How about a game plan to produce goods and services that somebody wants to buy. Why not create incentives for small businesses, our backbone.”
No - there are no more acronyms…
To Paulson - How about - TARP - Take A Rest Please.
I heard BONY laid off 1,500 people today.
The geniuses would be better served allocating capital directly to the economy
_________
BC (73),
Yep - I say let GM meet their maker, take that bailout money and instead give it to Honda and Toyota, as a direct subsidy to build more plants and/or create jobs here. At least then we’d know someone a bit more competent was running the asylum.
But in Socialist USA, where we save the losers, we don’t like anyone to fail. Thank god AMEX was saved, what would I do without those hotel points…
79 bair,
go figure…. and they are nearly alone in the top right hand corner of the sector graph….
sl
yikes[75],
Me too, as the Pats score;
The dollar is strictly a benefactor of frightened capital, unwinding of leverage/ cds [they are settled in dollars], repatriation, etc.. It certainly is not where capital wants to ultimately land. It’s where it can be absorbed for the time being.
Unfortunately, there is no bell that goes off at the top. Look for some disconnect, stock market down/dollar down, stock market down yen/euro cross down. Currently, both have been moving up during any down day in the stock market.
Gotta get back to the game, it’s getting interesting.
if the jets cant hold the ball for a bit here and milk like 4-5 mins of clock, it’s over.
the defense is gassed
Yikes,
It’s time to turn Brett loose.
just one first down from first place in the AFC East …
#
# Clotpoll Says:
November 13th, 2008 at 8:17 pm
steve (46)-
Befitting our new Third World status, I fully expect us to eventually repudiate our debt.
But only after we create- and export around the planet- the biggest bout of hyperinflation in recorded history.
A bit self-contradicting here.
If we do create hyper-inflation USA national debt might become equal to let’s sat price of one car??? whats 10 trillions by you in Zimbabwe???
he latest figures put the country’s annual rate at 516 quintillion per cent – 516 followed by 18 zeros – overtaking Yugoslavia in 1994 and putting it behind only Hungary in 1946.
Zimbabwe hyperinflation ‘will set world record within six weeks’
Inflation levels in Zimbabwe are running at 13.2 billion per cent a month and could reach an all-time world record within weeks.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/zimbabwe/3453540/Zimbabwe-hyperinflation-will-set-world-record-within-six-weeks.html
But i think if it does come to this level’s of inflation world-wide that will be the Armageddon and the last thing to worry will be USA national debt.
working late, nice article,
http://www.mi2g.com/cgi/mi2g/frameset.php?pageid=http%3A//www.mi2g.com/cgi/mi2g/press/081108.php
I. If the Dow Jones Industrial Average has fallen from above 14,000 to below 9,000 as a result of the subprime mortgage bubble collapse, ie a 5,000+ points drop or 33% decline, where will the equities market reach by 2010 as other larger bubbles burst?
II. If the world government bond market is around USD 30 trillion, how can governments rescue the eight bubbles bursting step by step with an ever larger quantum and momentum? What ought to be the focus at Bretton Woods II starting November 15th?
There are at least eight bubbles in play worldwide and their approximate scale is as follows:
1. Subprime Mortgage linked Loans and other Assets (USD 1.5 trillion);
2. China, India, Eastern Europe and other Emerging Market Loans (USD 5 trillion);
3. Commodities (Commodity Derivatives at about USD 9 trillion);
4. Corporate bonds (USD 15 trillion);
5. Commercial (USD 25 trillion) and Residential property (USD 50 trillion);
6. Credit Cards Outstanding Debt (USD 2.5 trillion);
7. Currencies (Foreign Exchange Derivatives at about USD 56 trillion); and
8. Credit Default Swaps (USD 58 trillion) as a subset of all Derivatives (USD 1,144 Trillion).
G-20 conversation: Paulson to the rest of the world - “That’s a nice little global financial system you have there. Be a shame if anything were to happen to it.”
Realty Trac is just as corrupt as those preditory lenders. As a property goes thru the different stages of foreclosure they keep counting it. So one property can be counted 5 times by the time it reaches sheriff sale. There is no regulation on these type of statistics.
See at the end of the article it states it counts all stages of the foreclosure on each property. This percentage is misinforming.
VOORHEES, N.J.–( BUSINESS WIRE )–American Water (NYSE:AWK), the largest investor-owned U.S. water and wastewater utility company, reminds homeowners to be prepared for freezing winter temperatures and act to prevent
A 60-inch water main break in Franklin Township had a ripple effect on residents in Somerset, Middlesex and Union counties today, prompting school closings and a boil water advisory. As a precaution, New Jersey American
I found more here if anyone’s interested