Thu 20 Nov 2008
From Forbes:
New Jersey unemployment hits 5-year high
Unemployment in New Jersey climbed to its highest level in five years in October.
The state Labor and Workforce Development Department says the jobless rate rose from 5.8 percent in September to 6 percent last month - the highest rate since July 2003.
…
New Jersey employers slashed 6,000 jobs, the third consecutive monthly loss.All the job losses were recorded in the private sector, with 2,500 cut in trade, transportation and utilities.
Employment in the manufacturing sector has fallen by nearly 12,000 this year.
…
Employment in the state has fallen in eight of the 10 months of 2008.
From the Star Ledger:
Vance Stroud knows times are tough. Yesterday the 56-year-old computer programmer was back at the Bergen One-Stop Career Center in Hackensack, hoping to land a temporary job. His last job ended two months ago.
“Up until this point, the agency kept me pretty busy,” Stroud said between filling out paperwork. “It was six months here, three months there, and two months here. Now, with so many people out of work looking for a job, it’s rough.”
How bad? New Jersey’s unemployment rate jumped to 6 percent last month, its highest level in more than five years.
In October, 6,100 jobs were lost in the private sector, far outpacing gains in education, health services and government employment, according to data from the state Department of Labor and Workforce Development.
So far this year, the state has lost 27,200 jobs, with employment falling in eight of the 10 months.
With Wall Street in the midst of a major restructuring and the automotive sector teetering on the brink, economists repeated warnings that New Jersey’s economy is likely to get a lot worse before it improves.
“It may deteriorate from here because we haven’t seen the full impact of the layoffs in the financial sector,” said Joel Naroff, chief economist for Commerce Bank. “We should not be surprised if we see the unemployment rate hit 8 percent.”
Only 700 jobs were lost in the financial sector in October, but “we are going to see some bad months ahead for the financial sector,” said Rutgers University economist James W. Hughes. He cited this week’s news that Citigroup will lay off more than 50,000 workers.
More ominous, Hughes said, is the loss of 6,000 jobs in the state just in October. That pace would translate to 72,000 lost jobs over the next 12 months — which Hughes sees as likely, given the current economic climate.
first?
Bend over.
Tri-state governors seek aid for Wall Street workers
The governors of Connecticut, New York and New Jersey are asking the federal government for a $48 million emergency grant to help thousands of financial industry workers who are losing their jobs.
Connecticut Gov. M. Jodi Rell said today that she, New York Gov. David Paterson and New Jersey Gov. John Corzine have sent a letter to U.S. Labor Secretary Elaine Chao urging her to approve the grant.
The governors say preliminary estimates show that 82,000 financial services jobs in the New York City metropolitan area will be lost by the end of next year because of the worldwide economic downturn.
The majority of workers in the financial industry are in administrative and computer support occupations, according to the letter.
The emergency grant would allow the states to give each laid-off worker $12,500 to help them find jobs and relocate, and to provide them with other services.
…
“Given the bearish economic forecasts for the next two to three years, we anticipate the unemployment rate will continue to rise significantly,” the governors wrote.
“It is imperative that we sustain the skilled work force most impacted by the financial crisis to help our economy recover,” the governors wrote. “The federal government acted swiftly to implement strategies to stabilize financial institutions; now it is time to act together to support the workers dislocated from those institutions.”
Why, exactly, do the masters of the universe need a grant? Please don’t tell me this skilled workforce didn’t save a penny over the past five years. Why should a financial services employee be entitled to bigger unemployment benefits than anyone else?
Unbelievable.
The emergency grant would allow the states to give each laid-off worker $12,500 to help them find jobs and relocate, and to provide them with other services.
What other services? Spa services?
Iceland gets an IMF loan, Ecuador is defaulting on debt, Putin is desperately trying to prevent a repeat of the Russian crisis.
Today show seems to think the biggest story going is a movie about a teenage vampire.
Utterly amazing.
I want my sucker rally!
http://clusterstock.alleyinsider.com/2008/11/now-commercial-real-estate-mbs-heading-into-tank
Now Commercial Real Estate MBS Heading Into Tank
Commercial mortgages have not yet defaulted on the scale of their residential counterparts. Those who pay mortgages on offices, hotels and retail properties usually have deeper pockets than the average homeowner, and often don’t run out of cash until after tenants stop paying rent. But with unemployment spiking and consumer spending down, any cushion they may have is getting thinner. C.M.B.S. investors are paying the price now. But if the erosion in markets continues, so will the rest of the financial system.
We shudder to ask, but how big is the CMBS market?
And I will get it…Prince Alaweed boosts his stake in C.
Moron.
clot,
things have progressed so far that if you tell the average joe what is actually going on they would not believe you. Have seen it first hand.
SO what are the choices? Either have the press start reporting what is really going on, and not act as corporate mouth pieces, and then end up with a very pissed off population. Or continue feeding the masses their daily dose of dumb and see how much deeper in debt you can sink them.
clott, why tell the plebs tha the titanic is sinking if there arent enough life boats?
Just shut it down already.
GMAC Applies for Status as Bank, Begins Debt Swap
GMAC LLC, the largest lender to General Motors Corp. car dealers, has applied for status as a bank holding company so it can get access to the Treasury’s $700 billion rescue fund for the financial industry.
CIndy,
CMBS market is about 3 trillion from the most recent numbers i saw.
From the Daily Record:
Report: N.J. chem. plants among most dangerous in U.S.
Five New Jersey chemical plants are among the nation’s 101 most “dangerous” facilities because terrorist strikes or innocent accidents could release poisonous gases killing or harming millions of people, says a report issued Wednesday.
The Center of American Progress, a think-tank with close ties to the incoming Obama administration, said those plants could greatly reduce risks by switching to “safer” chemicals used to make industrial products and applications and household products.
Current federal chemical security guidelines, which expire in October 2009, are too weak, according to the report, which is aimed at persuading Congress and the next president to pass tougher legislation mandating companies to switch to safer substances.
…
“New Jersey has the top facility, and that is the one in South Kearny,” said Orum, described by the report’s authors as a chemical-safety consultant, referring to a Kuehne Chemical Co. plant that uses chlorine gas to produce liquid bleach.
…
The other New Jersey plants identified were:
– Infenium USA plant in Linden, which uses chlorine gas to make industrial additives
– DuPont Chambers Works plant in Deepwater, which uses chlorine gas to make polymers
– Valero Refining Co. petroleum refinery in Paulsboro, which uses hydrofluoric acid to turn crude oil into gasoline
– The Thorofare plant in West Deptford, which uses hydrofluoric acid to make other chemicals
Clotpoll Says:
November 19th, 2008 at 9:25 pm
Cindy (225)-
“Lots of us have been angry for a long time. My anger is actually beginning to subside; I’m just tired.”
Clot,
Just get even.
Speaking of sucker rallies -
I have noticed that in a new development close by, a seller who bought the house earlier this year has not had any luck in selling his home (on the market since june). He bought it for 870k from someone who paid 885k in ‘05. As this story was transpiring, 3-4 new houses w similar sq feet sold for between 900-950k. What kind of “head in the sand” behavior has to occur for people not to notice? To top it off, a friend has now signed a contract with the builder despite all pleas to reconsider. What???!
“I want my sucker rally!”
Clot,
If Hammerin would shut up/go away, they remove Barney Frank from the TV, during market action, and GM goes Chap 11, you’ll get a nice rally.
Unfortunately, none of these will occur.
Prince Alaweed is a joke. He thinks he’s some kind of brilliant investor when he’s really a Saudi billionaire whose fortune has nothing to do with investing prowess.
He’s been flushing money down C for years. Wonder how much he’s lost?
grim 12,
i would suggest the Merck facility in Rahway. I am limited as to what i can say due to disclosure issues, but that facility shoudl be on the list. If you are really curious look at the disaster plans that merck has to file with the town. I assume those would be public record.
There is also a facility in newark that works with gaseous form of cyanide, and is more or less in the middle of a neigborhood.
http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2008/11/fed-watch-polic.html
Economist’s View
“Fed Watch: Policy Adrift”
“One can only conclude that Fed officials do not understand their own policies. Policy is adrift. Be afraid, be very afraid.”
“The nonperforming assets remain trapped in the system, threatening to create zombie banks.”
to conclude…
“Bernanke needs to step forward and define policy. We need to pressure him into providing leadership - or to step aside for someone else to do it.”
The economists are P.O.ed
JB [12],
That Kuehne Chemical Co. plant scares the daylight out of me. How many millions within a 20 mile radius. Most troubling, I know some of the troops that work security there. It’s a major concern.
Kettle?
IMO, the easy money has been made on the short side. The trick is to find out where the next fountain of easy money is and I am not smart/knowledgeable enough to figure this out.
This situation is getting scarier by the day. I recommend checking the CR posts from last night to get a handle on where we are heading. Massive government stimulus coming our way - We are heading towards a liquidity trap.
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/11/15/macro-policy-in-a-liquidity-trap-wonkish/#more-1037
“The nonperforming assets remain trapped in the system, threatening to create zombie banks.”
Cindy,
We have turned Japanese.
http://blip.tv/file/1486276?utm_source=episodepg_featured&utm_medium=episodepg_featured
This one is for Kettle…
Rob Bradley - former Enron employee on future energy programs being like the Enron model requiring government intervention and eminent domain. Titled
“Omama’s Enron Problem”
19 BC
if you are a mile or more west of the plant then you shouldnt be in a critical danger area. if you are east of it and something went wrong there, well…….
Your concerns are justified BC, while the odds may not be huge, any incident could easily be catastrophic due to population density.
and of all of those chemicals, HF, Hydroflouric acid is probably the last one i would want to be exposed to. very nasty stuff.
BC (15)-
Maybe the old floor has now indeed become the new ceiling. If so, I shall be back to getting shorty.
Ket: I’m convinced the media doesn’t want the average Joe to know what’s happening. it would get in the way of the agenda.
If I lose my Job. It will not matter how low real estate drops. I will not be able to afford.
(21) BC - “We have turned Japanese.”
Everything is so out in the open - Every one is seeing these yahoos proceed with no long-term plan in place..I keep hoping…. someone “smart” is gunna step up!
I don’t think we need blood in the streets - I think people are losing enough now that they will speak with their votes. The problem appears to be that very few honest people can survive in Washington DC.
And I still haven’t heard any of these TV types admit that people don’t even WANT to spend. They are still trying to lure the consumer into buying.
Clot,
I am loading back up.
“Prince Alaweed is a joke.”
2X [16],
Bingo.
Thursday Market Preview: The Bears Are Firmly In Control
http://seekingalpha.com/article/106988-thursday-market-preview-the-bears-are-firmly-in-control
Lots of happy news in that one.
yesterday a realtor told me it was a great( not good) time to buy-in and of it self not a shocker. when I asked y the person told me that prices have dropped so much I’d be crazy not to take advantage. stupid is with out question a deadly communicable disease and it’s spreading.
Over 100 US “blue chips” now selling for under $10 a share
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINN1965262920081119?rpc=44
Best quote from the reuters article:
“In fact, a third of the entire index is not even qualified to be in the index — 186 stocks have market caps under $4 billion, the minimum value for consideration for S&P 500 membership.”
cindy,
also consider that almost no one in a position of power has ever witnessed an economic event o this scale before. It may well be that no one alive has. hence there is an inherent mental block when it comes to acknowledging the full extent of the problem.
As Chifi likes to remind me, Cognitive bias.
Interesting comment from the Krugman NYT piece linked above.
The odd thing is that this phenomenon was described in considerable and prescient detail in the mid-nineteenth century. “Such a crisis occurs only where the ever-lengthening chain of payments, and an artificial system of settling them, has been fully developed. Whenever there is a general and extensive disturbance of this mechanism, no matter what its cause, money becomes suddenly and immediately transformed, from its merely ideal shape of money of account, into hard cash.”
In short, while crises are always preceded by extensive spending on credit, when elaborate credit relations collapse, the desire to hoard rather than spend money becomes overwhelming: “On the eve of the crisis, the bourgeois, with the self-sufficiency that springs from intoxicating prosperity, declares money to be a vain imagination. Commodities alone are money. But now the cry is everywhere: money alone is a commodity! As the hart pants after fresh water, so pants his soul after money, the only wealth.”
It might be worth lingering over the fact that our most powerful and hotly-debated macro problems are not in fact astounding mysteries that have only recently arisen and can’t yet be understood, but rather are foreseeable outcomes of the basic economic system — so much so tat they were clearly foreseen 150 years ago.
What exactly do we gain from ignoring the lesson of this? For the lesson surely is that if this outcome could be derived simply from examining the economic structure, and not the specific events of the last few months or years or decades, than the causes must be internal to the system, and not the result of unpredictable distortions or misbehaviors.
But this would mean making real changes, rather than punishing a few miscreants and temporarily stabilizing this machine which is destructive not in its bad moments but in its character…
Keepin’ It Real Estate: Homebuilders Facing Extinction
“Rehaut predicts that Pulte Home (PHM) and KB Home (KBH) could see negative cash flow next year - and some analysts believe 2009 could finally be the year that weaker hands start to fold. Credit protection for Hovnanian (HOV), Standard Pacific (SPF) and Beazer Home (BZH) is trading like the companies’ failure is a foregone conclusion.”
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/tol-PHM-ryl-hov-bzh-spf/index/a/20058
I love that the proposed big 3 bailout. The total market cap for the Big 3 is less then 7 billion and we want to hand them 25 billion that is supposedly secured by their assets?
Cindy (27)-
The people did speak with their votes. Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.
This breakdown has reached a point of sustained momentum. The inertia principle leads me to believe the momentum will continue until the force is opposed by something equal or greater. Our financial systems are engaged in a continuous negative feedback loop, and the bailout money is acting as fuel to its gruesome engine.
Too bad that force will be the entire economy, crashing into the ground.
Jobless numbers through the roof.
Look AT BELOW IN COMMODITIES. A lot of your have never actually worked in anything auto related, so let me tell you one bit of info related to commodities that is interesting. Automakers set both sales goals and MSRP in advance. It is next to impossible to change MSRP mid model year. So how you do it is your use marketing and sales projections to figure out the model sales. For instance based on yesterdays car show the newly redisgned 2010 Mustang is to be a MONSTER HIT. Lets say your are gonig to build 500K of them and they weigh 3,500 hundred each. You now need 875,500 tons of material to build them, material that includes alum, rubber, steel, plat, copper, etc. You need to hedge like a monther today in the commodities markets in case prices shoot up. Now lets say you go bankrupt, well you ain’t hedging at all, or if you are near bankrupt and think prices are going to fall you might hedge a lot less and roll the dice. Bottom line, GM/Chrysler/Ford go down, you can get your wife some Plat jewelery for XMAS as with 5 million less cars made, that is 5 million less Cat Converters made that use plat so Plat prices will fall like a brick.
First National Bank of Ara
(34) Kettle - True - People try to draw on “prior experience” - oops.
And it is pretty easy to say at the END of the day “The market dropped today after bad news from …..” If the market had gone up…”Stocks soared today because….”
At this point, perception is reality for so many - they only see hard times ahead and are retrenching - period.
HE (32)-
Gun to my head, I could find 10 issues in the pink sheets I’d get long before I bought 10 blue chips.
Clot,
I think based on the list they give in that article the pink sheet stocks definately have better upside.
Grim,
I am shocked, SHOCKED that and Ara or Bob Toll haven’t at least explored the bank holding company route.
08:32 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -5.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -10.80. Stock futures have taken a dip following disappointing weekly claims data. Initial jobless claims for the week ended November 15 totaled 542,000. Economists projected claims would total 505,000. Claims for the prior week were revised slightly lower to 515,000, marking the first time initial claims have been at or above 500,000 for two consecutive weeks since 2001. Further reflecting labor market weakness, continuing claims totaled 4.01 million, which is up from the 3.90 million continuing claims registered last week. The consensus called for continuing claims of 3.90 million this week.
“Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.”
Clot [38],
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zydAs5bRW1U
(47) BC - I LOVE that song….
took care of a guy yesterday. had clear evidence of mild heart attack by symptoms, ekg and cardiac enzyme tests.
wanted to sign himself out against medical advice…”I have to work, if I don’t work, I don’t get paid and I am already late on my mortgage.”
has wife, 2 kids.
I told him not to worry about the mortgage without even flinching. Explained to him that his bank doesn’t want to foreclose on him, etc etc. He tells me, “not by the letters I have been getting from them.”
I told him again, emphatically, he’d be better off getting himself tested and treated for his cardiac issue than worrying about the mortgage right now.
Anectdotally, our psych emergency service section is packed wall to wall, daily.
sl
I won’t even address the last thread’s drug topic….
the vitriol would be scarring.
sl
#31 cooper:when I asked y the person told me that prices have dropped so much I’d be crazy not to take advantage.
You should have told him/her that prices are going to drop a lot more over the next 6 months to a year, so need to rush.
Clot (38)
“Too bad that force will be the entire economy, crashing into the ground.”
I can’t give up though Clot…just my way - I have to try to help solve the problem…or rather seek information from those who will try…so I read…
still_looking,
I’m doing 200mg of xanax daily. Ya think I should up my dosage? ;)
talk to folks at work about what’s going on in our little financial world…. I’m still flabbergasted at the cluelessness.
After the education I’ve received here, I go out into the “real world” and feel like the court jester.
All I’m missing is the “end of the world” sandwich board.
sl
The firm I work for has access to a very current and prescient corporate debt related service. Detailed hourly articles re troubled companies and they source from many of the dealmakers. Anyway, headline this morning re GM refusing advisors pleas to explore bankruptcy options. Personal opinion is you see headlines like that you know its just a matter of time. It’s just like Fuld. Wagoner is a dead ender. He’s in fantasy land. They were saying a couple months ago they had enough cash on hand to get through 2009. Now they barely have enough to get through 2008. Any money they are asking for from Congress is 100% just to tie them over and bet the economy improves. As a taxpayer what side of that bet would you want to be on?
sl (53)-
I have one of those in my garage if you want to borrow it.
It looks best if you don’t have any clothes on under it.
Classic & timeless.
still_looking: Since you are in medical field.
What do normally unemployed folks are doing for medical insurance? Do they get some kind of Govt sponsored insurance at affordable prices?
HE (54)-
A pack of chimps could’ve run GM better than that guy.
Cindy (52)-
What gubmint in the history of the world has reversed an economic trend?
As BC says, I doubt ours will be the first.
(53) Still - “All I’m missing is the “end of the world” sandwich board.” Thanks for the laugh!
#53 Still: It is because they do not want to know.
I have seen the same thing, I used to be laughed at and scorned.
They are not laughing ans scorning any more.
Some have a naieve belief that once we have a new President, all the problems will just disappear over night.
“Any money they are asking for from Congress is 100% just to tie them over and bet the economy improves.”
This has been the Paulson strategy since day one of the credit crisis. He really should be tarred and feathered at this point.
I truly hope (but doubt) that O asks for his retirement immediately after his inauguration.
Are you buying WisdomTree and Bearing Point today?
Clotpoll Says:
November 20th, 2008 at 8:34 am
HE (32)-
Gun to my head, I could find 10 issues in the pink sheets I’d get long before I bought 10 blue chips.
Clot 55,
you mean the one you’ve been mixing C4 on?
no thanks….
advertising the “end of the world” is quite different than being the end of your own world… eeeesh :)
sl
Stu (61)-
The first thing O will do is whatever it takes to bail out the core of his base, the UAW.
My guess is, we’ll break the bank on the Big 3. Very few conditions on the money, other than some idiotic green standards that will ensure future consumers continue to avoid their cars like the plague.
We are really headed toward a Biblical generation of zombie stupor.
Brent Falls Below $50, First Time Since 2005
At least the current congress doesn’t seem to be going for the Detroit shakedown. I think it makes sense for gov’t to have a role in preserving an auto industry in the U.S., but it is pointless for gov’t to step up if Detroit is not willing to restructure its business. I have little hope the next administration will see things this way, however
sl (63)-
Actually, I use the sign to hide my grenade launcher.
I don’t know how to mix C4. If I did, I’d already be at work.
I bet Prince Alaweed is a Detroit Lions fan, too.
Maybe we can limit the Big 3 damage by getting some sort of eugenics program going in Michigan.
(58) Clot “What government in the world has reversed an economic trend?” I was thinking more about people not governments being able to enact change.
I stumbled upon the video for Kettle while trying to find some updated information on Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi. Have you ever read “Flow?” Ancient (1990) - but great…
SG 56
they go naked (no insurance) and use the ER as their medical care.
COBRA is unaffordable. Some will apply for [IMHO ridiculous] “catastrophe” insurance that is a complete rip-off.
Those with no assets apply for medicaid or charity care.
The cagy ones give fake names, fake addresses, go to ERs and get treated then stiff the hospitals and me.
At the same time the good ole USofA passed more legislation to stiff hospitals of Medicare monies.
In the next 2-3 yrs you can expect more hospitals that are living on razor-thin edges to close.
So your emergency care will be delayed 20-30 more minutes [as your heart muscle or brain tissues rot] til you get to an ER.
Yes. Coming to you real soon. And no I am not kidding. I see it already as Muhlenberg sets to close for good. We get a lot of their medic [read: really sick] patients.
Yes we are F\/CKED.
Now where is my f’ing sandwich board.
sl
3b (60):
After an amazingly annoying episode of Top Chef, I watched an interview last night on Bloomberg where they were interviewing Wagoner. They asked him if he would take a pay cut of 50% if required to get the bridge loan (a true bridge to nowhere I must add). He begrudgingly said he has already cut his compensation by 50%. They then asked what would happen if the bailout did not get approval. He said he did not know. Then the interviewer asked him if GM would have enough money to make it until the next administration takes office since they would be much more likely to provide the bailout. He didn’t answer, but you can tell by the look on his face that this was ultimately going to be their fallback strategy.
This morning on Bloomberg radio, Tom Kean reiterated that he would be flying coach on a commercial airline back from Washington to New York this afternoon. It was pretty funny.
In My Montclair listings today. 92 High St (GSMLS #2526097). OLP 725k New LP 625K. 100k price reduction and it has granite! Who says the downturn isn;t hitting Montclair?
Oh and current assessment is 790k which translates into an annual tax bill of 18k. So if the assessment is believed to be accurate as of 10/06, this translates to at least a 21% drop from peak. Ouch!
clot (67) -
don’t know if you’d really want to be handling that kind of stuff randomly, its a bit temperamental.
You need to hedge like a monther today in the commodities markets in case prices shoot up. Now lets say you go bankrupt, well you ain’t hedging at all…
Or even worse, you begin to unwind long positions you already have to raise cash or your creditors force you to deleverage…assuming you can find a counterparty that will take you.
I am off today. Just caught a clip on Bloomberg re various state’s protections for personal bankruptcy. Their advice is that if you are about to be foreclosed on but can still aford to buy a home, you should move to Texas and buy a place, then mail in your keys to the old place, as banks can’t collect from you in Texas. They can get a judgment but Texas law will protect your Texas residence along with your cars, jewelry etc whereas most other states will not. Of course you’ll have to spend the rest of your life in Texas.
Market futures looking bleak. Will tomorrow be black Friday? Or will we get another 700 point unexplained single day rally on the Dow?
Anyone think the ^vix will break 100?
Personal opinion despite the swings the trend is lower.
stu (77)
i thought the .vix was capped at 100? isn’t it supposed a perceived volatility of the S&P 500 as a matter of percentage from 0-100?
Stu (72)-
I’m waiting for an episode of Top Chef where they starve the contestants for a couple of days, then make them dumpster dive for meal ingredients.
let me get it straight.
Congress says No to little 3 bailout. (for now). Ben grants GMAC license to beciome a bank. Hank gives GMAC $25B TARP funds.
US Congress looks like a bunch of fools that they are.
crazy (74)-
Thanks for that shocking new information. :)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ufexZnViDiU Whoa….
Youtube -Detroit Foreclosures - Wayne County - 137 pages before they go under…
Before the “Big Three” goes under that is….
So, on Friday, January 19, 2001, the Friday before Bush took the oath of office, the Dow closed at 10,587.59. The next business day, Monday January 22, the Dow closed at 10,578.24. That is, what, about a 24% decline during a period when onc should have expected at least a 3% yearly increase.
GREAT job there Georgie. Don’t let the door hit you on the way out.
by the way,
Hank gives them the money and they have no right to even get an answer from him if he gave them $25B.
Pelosi, Dodd, and Frank got taken to school once again by this administration by giving Hank the power to do as he sees fit.
“He even got on his knees and lied “Please give this power otherwise America is screwed”
And Pelosi and the crew put the smartest crrok in history of politics in charge of $700B.
How stupid does thi ssound. What were they thinking really.
#72 Stu:It was pretty funny.
This whole thing is pretty funny, if it was not so sad.
clot (82) -
just trying to be captain obvious today ;)
btw.. look at moving into FX at all? USDJPY is taking a downswing as of 1.5 hours ago..
im targeting 94.15/93.35/92.80 .. should be a fun ride ;)
I bet we se the Dow hover between 7,500 and 9,000 for a few months. Wasn’t 75xx the low of the Bush presidency? If so, it would be interesting to see it break that number just so he cant assert that the low point came because of 9-11.
see, even
I know this sounds very kumbaya happy go lucky…but ya think the oil companies would be able to slide 25B towards the big three a sign of comradery…you know kind of like the distibutor helping the pusher.
Gator, Montclair may see “some” reductions but, remember, they are not happening on “the right streets” or, at least, not on the right blocks of the right streets; well, at least not for MY house, anyway.
Query:
How long before the O man or his minions on the Hill eliminate the deduction for mortgage interest for second homes as a way of making sure “the rich pay their fair share” to close the budget gap. If they do so, what happens to RE? Anything at all?
Shore: I called a range in the Dow from 7500 to 10500 many months ago. I’m glad to see that we are in alignment, although if there is no ill-informed government stimulus by the Spring, then I would lower my low end by 1000 to 1500. Of course this is all guesswork as I don’t believe one can easily time the market.
SL,
still interested in doing a tag along, when you have a spare monetn could you let me know ( e-mail me if you like) how to go about registering as you said before? sorry if i missed any info you might have already posted on this…
————-
Clot,
you dont use a sandwich board…
(CH2)6N4 + 4HNO3 → (CH2-N-NO2)3 + 3HCHO + NH4+ + NO3-
Chemistry and Technology of Explosives, Vol. III. Urbanski, Tadeusz (1967)
Disclaimer: Dont mess with things that go kaboom. I am a highschool janitor who gets his info from US Weekly and Foxnews. Messing with this stuff will get you put on a number of DHS lists
3b, 60
…I gotta laugh… I know that feeling!
One of my colleagues [who unabashedly reports he voted against McC b/c of P@lin] began asking me about exactly which taxes might be newly imposed or raised…
…he looked like a pole-axed steer.
Stupid me, I would figure one would ask this question BEFORE choosing one’s candidate….
then again, WTF do I know… I’m just the court jester….
sl
Crazy man
C4/RDX is actually highly stable and one of the most insensitive high explosives.
That doesnt mean anyone should play chemist for a day as there is always potential for disaster.
ket,
You have to register with the Volunteers office at the hospital. Apparently they have sharply increased the oversight.
There’s some paperwork to fill out.
I posted this probably a week or so back…I’m sorry if it was missed. I know, I know, I should’ve emailed…
sorry…. I’m just too f’ing tired.
sl
Oh, for those keeping score, the Dow is just about where it was 10 years before 10 years before the O inaugural. TEN years of flatness. How sad is it when the market cant beet a savings account over a 10-year period.
oops, one year off.
make money
“How stupid does thi ssound. What were they thinking really.”
They were thinking they would go along with the sky is falling scenario to blame it all on Republicans a few weeks before election day. It worked well. Unfortunately, they are too stupid to realize that they’ll control all 3 branches of government when the big collapse comes.
SL,
Even though your colleague may be getting gored by the O taxes, at least he can still feel good that he has 1) Hope, and 2) will see Change he can believe in — he will certainly have fewer paper dollars.
Shore,
“Oh, for those keeping score, the Dow is just about where it was 10 years before 10 years before the O inaugural. TEN years of flatness. How sad is it when the market cant beet a savings account over a 10-year period.”
my checking account would have beaten the dow. The hilarious thing is that there are people on other boards that claim that dollar cost averaging into the Dow will work out. If they’ve been dollar cost averaging the past 10 years, I feel sorry for them.
Apparently all the Saudi’s aren’t dumb:
“$3.5B Saudi Gold Deal Is Huge Compared with $6.5B Consumer Record”
The revelation of the purchase of $3.5 billion worth of gold by a group of Saudi Arabian investors over the past month is a huge gold deal when you consider that total record third quarter spending on gold by consumers was $6.5 billion.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/106995-3-5b-saudi-gold-deal-is-huge-compared-with-6-5b-consumer-record
ben,
dollar cost averaging will still work if you can wait another 30 - 40 years after this mess. SO if you are about 20 or so then go for it. other wise you will be lucky to break even .
:usual Highschool janitor disclaimer…..
#103 ben:the Dow is just about where it was 10 years before the O inaugural.
And real estae is going in the same direction.
kettle1 (97) -
yes, i wasn’t insinuating C4 (mainly RDX) itself was temperamental, but the manufacture of it was.
nitrides, and other R2N-NO2 (nitroamines) based chemicals are not exactly something i know i would randomly want to play with.
kinda like i wouldn’t want to play with PETN
Ben, Kettle,
If you guys are wrong about dollar cost averaging, you are going to feel awfully silly.
forgot to include my usual risk management disclaimer.
:for informational purposes only, do not try this at home:
WOW S&P at 786.50
We are below 2002 stock market crash.
crazy (88)-
JPY/EUR. X marks the spot.
I’m not sure what had less value. The pre-election partisan BS or the latest bomb-building advice we are witnessing here today?
Stu
“Ben, Kettle,
If you guys are wrong about dollar cost averaging, you are going to feel awfully silly.”
As long as you have companies in the Dow begging for billions of dollars in bailout money, I won’t feel silly at all.
crazyman,
absolutely, if you arent an organic chemist and dont know what chirality is then you shouldnt even consider messing with such things.
Stu:
as i have said before, we must all make our own risk assessments and act accordingly. That includes accounting for lost opportunities if you are wrong…..
As with anything else, its rarely black and white, I have my eye on a few stocks that i will certainly jump on at some point, but the dollar cost averaging standard is not my thing at the moment.
stu,
if the info put on the blog here is enough for someone to build a bomb, then they already knew enough before hand or were motivated enough.
Besides i dont think anyone here is advocating actually building and making explosives.
SRS about to broach 250.
So Bi, remember when you said XHB was a better investment than SRS when it bottomed around 12 last year and I said SRS was much better around 80?
Well XXB is now at $9.35 down about 25%. SRS is up a mere 240%.
My question for the crowd is will we be saved by Zero?
I hate that FIXX song and Toyota.
Kettle1,
“Besides i dont think anyone here is advocating actually building and making explosives.”
I know that, but isn’t doom and gloom enough without adding boom?
Couple of funny items from this morning’s Asbury Park Press…..
1 - Rented house in Freehold Twp busted as Pot Grow-House, tenants grew $250K worth under lights in basement. Cops pulled into driveway behind U-haul filled with harvested plants.
2 - Neptune resident out $3K in typical Mail Fraud scam. This is the second time this scam was successful in Neptune!
http://www.app.com/
clot (111) -
yeah, the eur/jpy cross is definately good times
ChiFi,
What am I hearing our fellow Albani women want to take stripping and pole dancing to olympic heights.
stu (119) -
i’d be pretty impressed if they could make the boom just by the information that was posted.
stu,
“I know that, but isn’t doom and gloom enough without adding boom?”
its all just mental twiddleywinks…..gotta keep the mind busy, boredom sucks
make money (122) -
you mean, it isn’t already? ;)
kettle1 (124) -
exactly. i mean, what else am i going to risk manage if i can’t risk manage myself? ;)
just in case any of you are curious -
DoD announced plans to buy electric vehicles to supplant on base transport (moving from humvees, crown vics, etc for personnel transport)
Saw a commercial last night for some new line of ‘green’ cleaners just released by Clorox.
Oh the hypocrisy. What’s next, organic soup from Union Carbide?
Clot,
I am back out. SDS hit 120 faster than I thought it would.
BTW I think options expire tomorrow. I am going to sit back and wait for now.
# SG Says:
November 20th, 2008 at 9:43 am
WOW S&P at 786.50
We are below 2002 stock market crash.
———————————
At 781, the S&P is at about 1997 levels.
I did see a DeLorean on the NJTPKE this am, so time travel would explain it.
“yeah, the eur/jpy cross is definately good times”
[121]
Consolidate, lower, consolidate, lower, consolidate lower. The thermometer for world’s risk. OUCH, that’s hot.
Stocks stay in their funk as economic data remain dour.
Strangest ‘Market Update’ I’ve ever witnessed on Yahoo Finance.
In other news, Citi is down to 5.71. At this pace, they are bankrupt by next Friday.
Cool numbers came up on my screen.
Dow 7777.93
S&P 777.89
The bad part is the significance.
Add citi at 5.55 to your interesting numbers there PGC
Going forward will Sucker Rally be a Myth?
U. of Michigan: Recession to Get Worse
University of Michigan economists said Thursday that the U.S. is in fact in the midst of a recession and that the worst won’t come until the middle of next year.
Maybe when O was saying ‘Yes we can!’ He was really referring to ‘can’ as in to preserve by sealing in a can.
Soup…Yes we can.
My credit card company sent me a reduction letter of my credit. I heard it on the news that the credit card companies where going to be reducing “at risk’ people.
Sucks, when they think you’re at risk. Do they know something I don’t know? in the past 3 years, I’ve made all of 5 charges and paid it back in full in preceeding months.
Grim, if this is true, then I give up.
“The emergency grant by NY would allow the states to give each laid-off worker (speciifically from the financial sector) $12,500 to help them find jobs and relocate, and to provide them with other services.”
Real question is: who doesn’t need a bailout?
[93]
repeal of the section 121 exclusion will have negative effect on growth in housing values. Housing is declining so there is nothing to be gained by repealing 121, except to piss off homeowners who are holding out for $$$ in the future.
In absence of 121 exclusion, as with commercial property now, gain can be avoided by rolling over gain to a new property within a set time period. Also, use of QIs (qualified intermediaries) means that you don’t have to sell then buy. So repealing 121 won’t increase revenues, but will moderate swings in home values by effectively regulating the market.
Note that it wasn’t 121 that encouraged flippers. Those that bought for quick resale did not avoid taxation since you had to live in the house for 2 years. But ever since 121, there had been 2 year flippers, and those folks (like me) made out.
A colleague at my firm basically pulled out of the market entirely last year. No great insight, just a gut feeling that the future didn’t hold much promise. His brokers berated him but he said, no, I know enough to know that I don’t know, and pulled everything to the sidelines.
He has gotta be loving life right now. Said he will get back in at 7700, but I think he likes where he is.
For my part, I was mostly out (no great insight since I was parking cash for my house buy), but not out in retirement, so that got b1tch-slapped. And here is the cautionary tale. I got a bit greedy with the bear market and decided to nibble with about 10% of our assets. That got utterly crushed in the value trap–those buys are never coming back.
AP,
My credit is shinier than Gary’s scalp and I have had one card completely turned off involuntarily and have not scene a credit line increase in over a year although my credit card spending has not really reduced by much. I used to get about $2,500 increases every year on most of my cards.
Oil December Delivery is trading at 49.90$.
com 140
you aren’t alone.
sl
My FIL snarled at me about getting my husband’s Oppenheimer fund sold in ‘o6 when we initially started house hunting.
It was just dumb luck, no more than that, but it saved that asset at least. Not to worry, I’m sure he still thinks I’m stupid.
My “back up fund” — out 5-10 yr is another story.
sl
I put my 401k into a cash position. You should have heard the guy on the end of the phone, he was talking to me like I had two heads when I said put it into Money Market based on CDs and Treasuries.
I know others that just hedged their 401k positions with shorts and puts to protect against losses and are sitting pretty well right now. They are not ahead but haven’t taken huge losses.
My office mate took a beating even though I told him that he should move to a cash position.
I have brothers and sisters that were eaten up too even though I counciled them in the same way.
Generally I was ignored for the most part. I started to tell them to save at least 3-6 weeks of staple goods for subsistence incase of domestic riots. I don’t think they are taking me seriously on that issue either.
kettle1 Says:
November 20th, 2008 at 8:16 am
19 BC
if you are a mile or more west of the plant then you shouldnt be in a critical danger area. if you are east of it and something went wrong there, well…….
Your concerns are justified BC, while the odds may not be huge, any incident could easily be catastrophic due to population density.
and of all of those chemicals, HF, Hydroflouric acid is probably the last one i would want to be exposed to. very nasty stuff.
——————–
I wouldn’t worry too much about terrorists attacking NJ. These are low visibility targets in areas most people don’t know anything about, and are not parts of key infrastructure. Terrorists aim for symbolic targets.
“My FIL snarled at me about getting my husband’s Oppenheimer fund sold in ‘o6 when we initially started house hunting.”
SL,
I would rather be a scared chicken than a dead duck.
66 skeptic: “I think it makes sense for gov’t to have a role in preserving an auto industry in the U.S”
Auto industry is doing well in the US, at least the ones that are not in the union-controlled states, ie Alabama/Tennessee/Georgia based factories are ok. Let Detroit file Chapter 11, get rid of the parasites and emerge with modern labor contracts.
People in those states will suffer, but they voted for the leadership that is responsible of the labor contracts and UAW-protection.
Nicholos, who cares about 401K money. I don’t plan on ever selling, the fact 401k money and SS will be there when you are old should be in tales told in a Mother Goose Nursery Tales book. As long as I have ten years of living expenses I can wait it out.
Sucks, when they think you’re at risk. Do they know something I don’t know? in the past 3 years, I’ve made all of 5 charges and paid it back in full in preceeding months
It’s probably not that you are a credit risk; it’s that you are an unprofitable customer. In the days of cheap credit, it was no big deal for hold an open line of credit for you, even if you used it only infrequently & didn’t offer much profit potential.
With credit in limited supply, the CC companies probably feel compelled to extend credit to more profitable customers.
Dow Positive
/Depression off
You made me laugh John, thanks I needed that.
Some other blog is talking about “Final Destination 3″ and how no matter how hard they try fate will eventually catch up to them and kill them in the most twisted ways.
So we are heading towards the zero boundary in Fed Funds, and a real possibility of a liquidity trap.
I can’t wait for the helicopter drops directly to the public to start next year, should be a trillion or two in expiring debit cards that you cannot cash out on and cannot save.
Good times, I am going use mine for whiskey amd pole dances.
RentinginNJ,
I agree with you there. There is probably some back room analyst that is number shaping by trying to pare back exposure to “deadbeat” customers and extend more credit to “paying” customers.
It may also be due to lower access to captial themselves which potentially could have drastic effects if those unused lines of credit suddenly become used. They close those lines to ensure that they don’t become overextended, another backroom decision.
They could also be pricing in new risk, such as that generated by layoffs in the area. A geographical area, lets say Detroit, may be headed for some serious sh!t storm and they decide that they don’t want to be exposed to that market anymore. They may be taking into account your job and may be pricing in some risk associated there, such as layoffs that they see comming down the pipeline that you can’t smell yet.
Sorry to provide so much gloom, but there are a lot of reasons why they could be pulling back credit even though you are not a defaulting borrower.
Nom, SL, Nicholas,
You know my story and there was no luck involved. This blog probably pushed me into taking my 401K to bonds, but the shorting of commercial real estate in my taxable and IRA accounts were the icing on the cake.
Of course, I’m already down almost 6% in the last three weeks as I have decided to average back into the market in my 401K to the tune of 50% of it.
A few of my friends followed me to the promised land. By far the rest are so clueless and screwed. My Red Bank friends are so clueless it is unbelievable. They still think their home which they owe 450 on is worth 500 and I just Zillowed it and it is coming in at 443. They bought the home in January of 2004 for $395K. And we all know how high Zillow estimates tend to be. Shoot, I would bet my house is worth about 15% below my zestimate.
There is this one old guy at work who has a bunch of Citibank shares. I told him at 20, 10, 16, 10, 8 and 6 to sell. He still thinks they are coming back.
Denial is a terrible thing when it comes to wealth destruction.
“My Red Bank friends”
Stu,
I blasted out of RB when HOV put the shovel in the ground. Is the fountain still on?
Dow Negative
/Depression back on
“Is the fountain still on?”
It is, but the water is a funny shade of red.
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. economists said late Wednesday they now expect the Federal Reserve to make two half-point cuts to its fed funds rate, currently at 1%, by the end of January, bringing the fed funds rate to 0%. The U.S. central bank will then hold this benchmark rate at 0% for the rest of 2009,
it will interesting to see if the Dow will test the intraday lows of this morning. Depending on whether that will hold will set the tone for the rest of next week.
How about a negative fed fund rate. They pay you to borrow. Think that would kick start lending? I certainly would take advantage. It’s what I’ve been doing all along with my credit cards.
Zack,
“Depending on whether that will hold will set the tone for the rest of next week.”
I disagree completely. What occurs late tomorrow afternoon will have a lot more weight as to what to expect for next week, but none of this is really predictable. If it was, we would all be wealthy like John :P
Zack [160],
Watch the S&P’s, 775 level. They hit the 02′ level this morning. Interesting to see if that holds.
Some members of the media are myth making comparing O with either Lincoln or FDR. He isn’t even in office yet. People are going to be highly disappointed when they realize he isn’t part of the solution, especially once his redistribution of wealth plan goes into effect. The next four (or eight) years are going to be very long.
155 Stu
I had moved to bonds early last year and was on target to be down 15% at this point. But the only bond fund in my 401K got spanked and I’m sitting 25% down. I still don’t know why it dropped in August. Either it got hit with the rate cuts or it was holding some Lehman. I think overall I’m doing well.
My next problem is how and when to get back into stocks. My aim had be Apr 09. My fund choice is limited. I think my only real option is an S&P tracker fund. I think 3Q/09 may be the earliest I go back in after a few more earnings reports to shake the bad apples of the trees.
“especially once his redistribution of wealth plan goes into effect”
- Unfortunately, we are fast running out of wealth to redistribute.
redistribution during a deflationary period will be one tall order…. should be an interesting show.
#162 Stu: Tomorrow and next Monday and Tuesday are the only real trading days left until after Thanksgiving.
Actually he is both. Soon your stock investments will be worth a penny (Lincoln) and you will like you laid down on the FDR Drive and got run over by multiple cars.
Jersey Jim Says:
November 20th, 2008 at 11:45 am
Some members of the media are myth making comparing O with either Lincoln or FDR. He isn’t even in office yet. People are going to be highly disappointed when they realize he isn’t part of the solution, especially once his redistribution of wealth plan goes into effect. The next four (or eight) years are going to be very long.
I think the biggest shock will be those retirees looking for a 4% return per year to preserve the capital base of their retirement funds. It will be time to start tapping into the principal to cover next years expenses.
SG, #56
Re emergency medical insurance - If you land in a NYC hospital with no insurance, a social worker will get you enrolled in some sort of emergency Medicare program.
I know this from a neighbor who was in a bad accident, and had insurance, but the social worker thought she didn’t.
re: #170 PGC - case in point would be my dear old mom, she has been pulling out about 25k a year in gains from her IRA for the last few years to spend frivolously and now there are no gains to take only losses. She is back to about where her principal started.
Her comment to me is you can’t take it with you.
I predict in 2009 and 2010 we will have a record amount of Muni Bonds Called. 30 year Muni bonds are popular with Pension Plans, Insurers and Retirees. Nearly all have a ten year call feature. 2006 and 2007 rates were fairly high so few 1996 and 1997 bonds were called. 2008 there was no way to raise funds in order to call the 1998 bonds. 1997,1998, 1999 and 2000 ten year and 30 year rates were pretty high, remember the 8% mortgage. For banks flush with cheap cash at zero percent fed funds in 2009 but scared to lend. A town, city or state with a 6% 100 million dollar bond callable bond issue looking for a 100 million dollar 3% bond offering to pay off the 6% bonds is a no brainer. That saves the town, city or state on that one bond alone 30 million interest a year. Lending money that results in the borower becoming more credit worthy is a dream come true. Plus you are only lending till the deal is done as best a month or two. Lot of folks sitting on 5-6% munis that are callable will have the 1993 effect. That was when all the 1980s bonds got called when we spiked to record low rates and widows and orphans were screaming when their 9% tax free bonds got called and new bonds paid 3%. So the muni bond retirees who were all in fixed income and were not distroyed in 2008 will have a new problem by 2010. That 500K in 5% munis paying them 25K a year tax free income will become 15K a year income at 3% and they either need to scale back expenses or venture into risker high yield things which is what got us in trouble in the first place when rates went to low in 2004.
172. Sean
Her comment to me is you can’t take it with you.
————————
The problem is if all your money leaves before you do.
Sean,
Thats why my father said as he sat back and contributed nothing to help me get through undergrad and masters programs in in EE.
His father took him out of the will and wouldn’t give him a nickle. His brothers and sisters pooled the money after his fathers death and redistributed it evenly.
My dad took his share and blew it on riverboat gambling.
I have to actively keep myself from punching something when I hear “you can’t take it with you”.
“The problem is if all your money leaves before you do.”
Cat food?
Forget about AIG, Fannie/Freddie, auto’s, cc’s, IB’s, foreign banks, etc.. Utilize the $700B to buy S&P’s. Get a rally going.
My inheritance will be split 7 ways. My parents are cheap, but not THAT cheap. I will rely on no one but myself and some of Jersey Jim’s redistributed wealth.
SKF is on Stereoids…
anyone ringing the register or are you waiting for two more DOW components to get wiped out.
I wish I had a register to ring. Currently, I’m holding the down markers.
where is the ppt team? Where is a rally when you need one.
Did someone brief O about the ppt team and how they do their best work from the yaghts in the carribean.
Stu,
Don’t worry you can count on me. But remember, in this coming period of deflation anyone with a job is going to be “wealthy”. I don’t think people are going to be happy with the change they eventually get, which will be higher taxes and higher unemployment.
The thing I am intrigued about is - how are we still seeing packed NFL, College stadiums? Why does anybody want to pay upwards of $100 to see the action from a quarter mile away?
Escapism?
scribe, 171
government insurance, controlled by CMS is either Medicaid: you’re poor, or Medicare: you’re over 65.
Your only other alternative is Charity care, usually administered through the hospital, also income and asset based scale, usually sliding based on i/a where you are covered by a percentage: 100% for the poorest and then sliding scale down.
sl
also. “accident” — if car related is covered by your car insurance unless you have opted out and instead have your health insurance [via employer or purchased] as your primary “accident” related coverage.
sl
Ugh. A deal has been reached on the Detroit bailout.
Cindy,
I watched the video link you put up. I am not excited about O’s energy plan or any other politicians for that matter. The changes that need to take place are so extensive that they will not happen until; they are forced to be done due to overall circumstances.
The guy in the video is probably right that a lot of the changes cannot really be made on top of the existing energy grid. The first thing we need to do is upgrade the entire US power grid to handle intermittent sources, we need a digital power grid with integrated PLC’s, a Smart Grid. There have been proposals for this for decades but its always considered to expensive.
Once you upgrade the grid, the situation becomes very different and alternative sources fit in very well.
The problem that stumps many people is being able to properly define the initial problem and its boundary conditions.
BC Bob Says:
November 20th, 2008 at 12:20 pm
Forget about AIG, Fannie/Freddie, auto’s, cc’s, IB’s, foreign banks, etc.. Utilize the $700B to buy S&P’s. Get a rally going.
ASK AND YEE SHALL RECEIVE…
Detroit bailout news conference at 2:30. Bipartisan agreement has been reached.
Outofstater Says:
November 20th, 2008 at 12:46 pm
Ugh. A deal has been reached on the Detroit bailout.
—————————–
Sorry Stu,
It looks like my redistributed wealth has already been spoken for.
chi [188],
775, S&P’s, line in the sand.
here it comes… fade this sucker like there’s no tomorrow
yeehaw
Question is Steve,
Where is your entry? Today, tomorrow, Monday?
My college gives away unsold tickets to people online.
Free always attracts spectators.
Stu,
Wish I knew. This genius closed out two days ago.
Truly a casino now, do you pick red or black? I think that’s what it comes down to, IMHO.
so, the cables on the way down also..
wonder how long it will be before we are at parity with the GBP hahaah
crazy 196,
Xmas 09?
big 3 bailout-infused rally ended. Dow is down again. Happy to be on the sidelines.
I just stopped by Mcdonald’s and they are now accepting Citigroup stock certificates in exchange for any extra value meal.
The only downside is that you still have to pay sales tax.
Even I have to admit this market is pure gambling. This morning I was checking out some pref stock as the stock market was so low and so a bunch of GM pref stock trading at 3 bucks a share with a 50% yield. I felt like buying some but with nothing more than a hunch or a feel did not. Stock picking fundementals is as useful as blowing on the dice at the craps table.
”
So, for the time being, the clearest path to making money in the public markets is to know in advance what the government plans to do next with which companies, and when — and then trade on it. Let there be no doubt: Plenty of people with access to such inside information are enriching themselves this way now. My guess is none of them is named Mark Cuban, and that the Securities and Exchange Commission will never sue any of them.
It’s long been cliche to say the securities markets are a giant casino. This notion hasn’t been explored enough. Aside from the free drinks, the only reason a rational person would play a slot machine in Las Vegas, aware that the house controls the outcome, is because of the mindless entertainment it promises. For ordinary folks with money to burn, this might be the last, best reason to invest in the U.S. capital markets, too. ”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=at5FqZ7Gr0nw&refer=home
kettle (197) -
think it will take that long? we unwound pretty quick from 177 to 148
vic (200) -
i always wondered how my online options trading account wasn’t frozen by the internet gambling ban ;)
The transition PPT is not doing a good job. They hit the wrong button again.
Ob’ama -1
i always wondered how my online options trading account wasn’t frozen by the internet gambling ban ;)
I just got a trade violation in mine for violating the “free ride” rule.
The way our economy is headed into the crapper, they may want to consider the creation of the ‘plunger’ protection team.
RentinginNJ:
“violating the “free ride” rule.”
Did you tell them to ‘Take it easy?’
189 “Detroit bailout news conference at 2:30. Bipartisan agreement has been reached.”
I always thought the most dangerous statement is that “I’m from the Government and I’m here to help”, but “bipartisan agreement” is probably even more dangerous and expensive.
It is bailout for both sides. Partisan solution is bailout only for one side.
“Congressional officials say Democratic leaders have decided to put off a bailout vote for the auto industry until December and will insist that the Big 3 first come up with a plan showing how the money would help transform their industry.”
What their plan is and if they follow through with it are two completely different things.
Expect to see them back at the trough some time in late 2009 when their squandered money runs out.
unemployment is increasing, but the National Association of Realtors would like to remind you that the commercial real estate market remains fundamentally sound.
I’m not reading any news about some agreement. What I’m reading is that Congress told them to get their sh!t together, come back with a solid buisness plan, and pray for a Christmas present.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081120/ap_on_go_co/congress_autos
Congress wants business plan from automakers
WASHINGTON – Congressional officials say Democratic leaders have decided to put off a bailout vote for the auto industry until December and will insist that the Big 3 first come up with a plan showing how the money would help transform their industry.
An announcement is expected later in the day in the Capitol, where top Democrats in the House and Senate have been meeting. The officials who described the developments did so on condition of anonymity, saying they were not authorized to disclose them.
The big auto companies — General Motors Corp., Ford Motor Co. and Chrysler LLC — have been seeking government loans totaling $25 billion to stay in business until spring. Critics want to make sure the companies will use the money to transform their industry into one that is more competitive.
Hope your not on Santa’s naughty list.
Big 3 have unveiled their new strategy when the bailout passes…
http://www.corigami.com/images/money_car.jpg
Chuckleheads. Good one Stu.
INteresting read in that rag the NY Post on Credit Cards and PPT, wonder what Joe Sixpack who reads the post in thinking?
http://www.nypost.com/seven/11202008/business/credit_cards_will_be_the_next_big_financ_139703.htm
From Business Week:
FHA-Backed Loans: The New Subprime
The same people whose reckless practices triggered the global financial crisis are onto a similar scheme that could cost taxpayers tons more
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/08_48/b4110036448352.htm?chan=top+news_top+news+index+-+temp_top+story
Im no technical analyst but check the ominous double peak on the S&P… http://tinyurl.com/6s9ggx
GWB is “dumb” and caused the DotCom meltdown in 2000, while serving as Governor of Texas. GWB also forced President Clinton to sign the Community Reinvestment Act in 1999.
The Messiah is a “genius” and will solve everything come January, to include holding back the rising seas.
Pass the Kook Aid.
re: #216 Veto - That’s no double peak in the S&P chart, it is the dreaded middle finger.
#216:
Looks more like the average investors cardiogram.
Hey Qwerty:
http://tinyurl.com/NiceParty
If John Reed was dead he would be rolling over in his grave watching that Pandit guy in action.
Part of this bailout for GM involves financing for consumers. So lets see…we have to give GM money so they can loan it to us to buy their cars?
#209 Ben: A local Realtor has an ad in my local town paper this week proclaiming that Bergen county real estate is STILL a good investment;so there all you doom and gloomers.
GE Says Not Seeking Sovereign-Wealth Investment
translation: We are currently bent over begging for a capital infusion.
Stu, 219
Average investor’s cardiogram:
———————————————–
a/k/a flatline!
sl
They want to the govt to buy the asset backed auto loans, lets say you want to buy a malibu for 15K with 5K down, the govt would lend the consumer the 5K by backing the asset back and if properly set up loan would be first collateralized by car, repo man would take it and if it sells for more than 10K end of story, if it sells for less than 10K they go after car owner, if car owner wiggles out of it via bankruptcy they set loan up so they go after GM.
ben Says:
November 20th, 2008 at 2:56 pm
Part of this bailout for GM involves financing for consumers. So lets see…we have to give GM money so they can loan it to us to buy their cars?
Thornburg managed to buy back 72.2% of its preferred shares prior to the expiration of an extended offer, but announced Wednesday it had failed to make a $12.2 million interest payment on Senior Notes “because it currently does not have available funds to do so.” Standard & Poors cut their counter-party credit rating to D, “the lowest possible,” Forbes reported. Negotiations with override lenders are ongoing, and Thornburg said it would make the payment within a 30-day grace period.
“”Given the long-standing nature of the negotiations through this point, we feel that it will be difficult for Thornburg to finalize negotiations and make its payment,” said S&P analyst Adom Rosengarten.”
Dow just broke through its 52wk low. Will it stay down or rally to the close.
3b
“#209 Ben: A local Realtor has an ad in my local town paper this week proclaiming that Bergen county real estate is STILL a good investment;so there all you doom and gloomers.”
Apparently someone thinks so. My parents are selling some commercial space to a guy in Bergen County for a ridiculous amount of money. I’ll keep my mouth shut on where it is out of the remote chance that he reads this blog. All I know is, he’s going to get wiped out.
Not sure if this has been posted already. She provides very helpful weekly info on her Hoboken RE blog, but her logic in this piece is just plain flawed.
http://hobokenrealestatenews.com/2008/11/15/whats-going-on-in-todays-real-estate-market-its-a-question-of-balance/#comments
December Delivery for oil is now trading at 48.90$.
It has dropped almost 5$ today.
Shore 92 - Here’s another one…this one in Upper Montclair.
43 Beverley Rd. (GSMLS #2598242) Asking price 569,000. 2006 Assessment - 676,000. Purchased 6/23/03 - 568,500.
Is Upper Montclair really back to 2003 prices alreasdy?
#230 Young: Same typical realtor drivel.
Now that the stock prices are close to 1998 levels, I wish the home prices get to that level :)
However, I should be careful what I wish for… hopefully the stock markets do not portend something very scary.
S
# Stu Says:
November 13th, 2008 at 4:02 pm
FXP at 60 is intriguing. Won’t buy it here, but still interesting.
November 20th, 2008 at 3:38 pm
FXP is at 92.65.
Shoot me!
#229 ben Lucky for your parents. paramus has teh highest commercail vacany reates sicne the early 90’s (the last ugly recession), and that was as of 5 months ago.
8 minutes till the market opens…
#234 I wish the home prices get to that level :)
As Bearish as I am on real estate, I never thought prices could go back to late 90’s levels, but now I would not be surprised at all.
I went back in at 116 and stopped out at 120 on the SDS. This is nuts. Close to breaking the October lows
[228] PGC
Think we see the answer there :-(
[235] Stu
FXP is helping, but it ain’t saving my battered play money portfolio. At 40% down overall, I am simply closing the doors and looking at it next year.
Tempted as I may be to start back in, capitulated is capitulated–I am out and staying out for the foreseeable future.
I would love to see Dennis Kneale and Kudlows face today. Those morons called a bottom when dow was 12K. Also that BlackRock CEO who has been calling bottom for ever.
Dow with a 75, can someone stop the roller coaster I’m getting queasy.
EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. (CBS) ― A tanker-truck overturned on a New Jersey Turnpike ramp near the Meadowlands and burst into flames, sending a massive cloud of thick black smoke into the sky Thursday.
The accident happened about 2:45 p.m. on the 16W ramp off the northbound lanes in East Rutherford.
It was the Dukes, it was the Dukes!
Dandy Don; “Turn out the Lights”
#243 jamil
Thats going to make my commute lovely. Looks like its the Parkway home for me.
All Hype [#237]
“8 minutes till the market opens…”
looks like you picked the bottom for the day (for shorting I suspect)…
Zaxk [241],
The should bury Dennis Kneale. Then again, he has been a great contrarian indicator. He is a total buffoon.
That’s Zack.
Back to back 400+ point losses on DOW, hmm.
dow at 7500. this is actually good. vomit it all up, baby.
john, how you doin’ big guy?
what a market. It is really tough to play it. Unfortunately, I got out of SKF 3 days ago.
71 SL
Why do you think catastrophe insurance is a rip-off? My plan is incredibly cheap so I got it. I’d like your pov so I can figure out if I am indeed getting ripped off.
Thanks!
“Back to back 400+ point losses on DOW, hmm.”
As the prices slide down, the 400 becomes a bigger and bigger share of the index.
It is an understatement, but I think the economy is way weaker than in 2002 (can’t think of any bubbles that can prop up the economy in the near term).
SKF could touch 300 today.
once again, Mike Morgan was right.
Bi, Frank, reinvestor, wrong again, chumps.
Z08 RBOB falls below $1.00
New 52 wk hughs for sds, skf and so on and so on. Citi down 30% on the day.
“Bi, Frank, reinvestor, wrong again, chumps.”
I haven’t read many of Bi’s posts but I am impressed by Bi’s 40 oil call…
getting worse there..
NEW YORK (Reuters) - JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE:JPM - News) is cutting 10 percent of its investment banking staff — about 3,000 jobs — as the economic slowdown starts to bite into its earnings, people familiar with the situation said on Thursday.
I had my own scare today..Major reorganisation was finally announced today. No layoffs, but up to 30% spending cuts in most groups (mostly achieved by cutting the use of external consultants and law firms)
hmmm…my direct deposit goes to Citibank. Maybe I should get a check and go to “Checks Cashed”.
Dow has shed 9% in the last two days.
I feel like everything is on sale like the day after Thanksgiving, except the sales have come early this year.
Whew. That was a fun 15 minutes.
Where’s bi? Frank?
At least we are closer to the bottom.
Sastry Says:
November 20th, 2008 at 3:48 pm
All Hype [#237]
“8 minutes till the market opens…”
looks like you picked the bottom for the day (for shorting I suspect)…
_________________________________________________
I do not short, just like to goof around a little.
This market is in total free fall. I am now starting to get worried. I am thinking we are heading down to 6000 on the DOW and 600 on the S&P. That’s about a 60% haircut for both…
# Sastry Says:
November 20th, 2008 at 3:57 pm
“Bi, Frank, reinvestor, wrong again, chumps.”
I haven’t read many of Bi’s posts but I am impressed by Bi’s 40 oil call…
when did he make that call? what was his timetable?
bi and Frank are busy applying for Quant jobs in Mexico.
clot - someone said we’re closer to the bottom. thoughts?
where’s BC? let me get all bi for a moment: I PREDICT A BIG UPTICK TOMOROW. ALL DISCLAIMERS
Sastry [254],
Bi made that call last Nov when crude was trading at $68. If bi traded it, like the call, bi and maybe biluva, would have been buried.
yikes [251],
Maybe, everybody he knows has now gone long 150%?
Hey its a great time to buy real estate;at 1999 prices that is.
Sheesh, Yikes is now channeling Bi since he isn’t here to take credit for his 40$ handle on oil even though he was one year late.
Yikes [268],
I arrived at post #245.
This stock market buying opportunity is just a slap in the face for all the RE investors that are buying distressed properties in CA.
Why buy a distressed property when you can snatch up on a distressed stock?
Seems to me that it would be easier to own a distressed stock then it would be for property. I mean, property taxes, RE fees, and lawns to mow.
Clot - Great call on Citi a few weeks back. CNBC STUNNED that Citi is below $5. It is like they were sitting in the stands but not watching the game, and a foul ball drilled the entire cast in the side of the head.
how are these people so damn clueless?
re: #266 Yikes - Bi made his oil prediction on August 3rd. Only problem was it was August 3rd of 2007 when oil was $76 a barrel.
/ sarcasm
Has anyone noticed Citi’s stock at $4.71. Forget bailing out GM, this maybe the next to go. Maybe straight to Goldman…
Anyone got any thoughts on this???
#275 Yikes: how are these people so damn clueless?
Their jobs depend on it.
You know what’s cool about this? That a few guys here (not me) called all of this weeks and months ago. And none of it surprises me. No panic on our end.
Wonder if the pres-elect is wondering if he had any clue what the hell he was getting into. i really wonder if high up in the political realm, people were aware it was going to get this bad.
I don’t have any action on December delivery for oil after 3pm. Anyone know if it was suspended from trading?
It dropped 8.8% since about 6am this morning.
At least somebody had a good news today..
Norway is buying 48 F-35 Lockheed Fighter jets, worth of ~$3B.
clot, can you find your Citi call from a few weeks back? did you bookmark it? i’d like to send it to this hedgie i talk to
i try to get him to read this board … this just more ammo
What are F-35s? I have never heard of that model of aircraft.
Ohhhh… the JSF.
That is like a crappy version of the F-22 stripped down for sale to foreign countries.
They remove all the good communication equipment, radar, high-performance engines and you have to install new components yourself.
They thow in some joint target sharing software so that you can indicate to the real jets where the trouble is.
re# #78 All Hype - If the taxpayer tosses in a say a $100 billion dollar wedding present the marriage might survive.
As everyone focuses on C, BAC is on deck for the death march.
Thoughts on tomorrows market anyone?
ChiFi, BC Bob, Clot, Grim, Anyone
10yr yield is at 3.09%. Am I reading this right? I have never seen it this low in my life.
Will the mortage rates follow? Why haven’t they already?
I’m dumfounded.
I like my odds better in the Atlantic City Casinos.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=at5FqZ7Gr0nw&refer=home
AH [278],
$2.00 and a backstop.
GM @$1.70, lowest level since the Great Depression.
Stocks are at these prices cause home prices are going to 1998 prices.
Sastry Says:
November 20th, 2008 at 3:38 pm
Now that the stock prices are close to 1998 levels, I wish the home prices get to that level :)
However, I should be careful what I wish for… hopefully the stock markets do not portend something very scary.
make [288],
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates/index.html
Yikes is now a NJRE groupie :).
Make,
10 year, Dec contract. Remember, prices go in the opposite direction of the move in yield. An incredible explosion in price, lower yields.
http://charts3.barchart.com/chart.asp?sym=ZNZ8&data=A&jav=adv&vol=Y&divd=Y&evnt=adv&grid=Y&code=BSTK&org=stk&fix=
Fannie and Freddie suspend foreclosure sales until jan 2009?
well, that sucks
hey buddy, i’ve been here since 2006. these guys helped me sell my flip just in time
:)
i put it on the market and had no bites and panciked. dropped it 25k and had bites. sold quickly. even dropping 25k i still pocketed plenty.
i’ve just gone through a few “name” changes on here
#295 BC Bob: Can someone explain to me how with the FFR at 1.00, more aggressive easing by the Fed will reduce the chance of deflation?
Are these clowns just that, clowns?
BC,(299),
Where are the mortgage rates going from here?
So the fed govt is hard-up for cash. Let’s say people stop buying t-bills, even at these generous rates. Then what?
I can’t find my econ 101 book …
by the way,
10 ounces of my shiny stuff get me one share of DOW.
BC,
How long until we get to sigle digits?
I prefer the term chuckleheads, it just has a more rich mind picture behind it.
Clowns can be downright scary, ala IT by Stephen King.
#302Clowns can be downright scary, ala IT by Stephen King.
Do you want a balloon??
Everybody floats down here.
lost,
The insurance I am talking about has folks paying a few hundred a month and gives them an insane deductible of $10K or higher and then pays 50% of the rest.
If you have to pay the first $10K, you’d be better off naked, banking the money yourself — especially if you are relatively young and healthy.
Depending on age, everyone’s mileage may vary.
sl
I don’t have any action on December delivery for oil after 3pm. Anyone know if it was suspended from trading?
Z contract closed today at 2:30
F becomes the current month
Thanks RendinginNJ,
I haven’t been following the futures trading for all that long. Thanks for the info.
Im guessing that the 20th would be the last day of trading on that month or does it go by something different like 10 day before the end of the month?
re# 298 - 3b - look up quantative easing, Japan did it. Fed is now paying banks on reserve balances. If money borrowed is “free” and is not lent out they get paid. No losers here except for us the taxpayer of course.
The incredible thing about this sell-off is that everybody including well known bears like Marc Faber predicted that there would be a huge rally for a few weeks/months after the Oct Sell off.
Guess all of them underestimated the forced develeraging of the hedge funds. Damn, If I had not covered my shorts in Oct - I would have been much better off :).
Was in the town of Warren today.
Had a great salmon stuffed crab at a joint called “Alfie’s” or something like that.
check it out.
SAS
#307 Sean:look up quantative easing, Japan did it
Japan did it ,and it did not work, and its nto going to work here either.
re #307 #298 - 3b if you want a better explanation on Japan-style quantitative easing in the US than my chicken scratch.
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/10/27/17448/the-unthinkable/
These were the headlines that I was afraid to read. what have I been telling you going on I think 3 years now, ever since that god damn tree house & the angel Bernake with the halo pic.
“Pensions frozen at Random House Inc.
Pensions frozen at Random House Inc., and eliminated for future hires”
http://tinyurl.com/5dr7ov
SAS
Any bets on how long till the short ban is re-instated?
“Depending on age, everyone’s mileage may vary”
in more ways tha one brother…. in more ways than one!
SAS
make money Says:
November 20th, 2008 at 4:24 pm
ChiFi, BC Bob, Clot, Grim, Anyone
10yr yield is at 3.09%. Am I reading this right? I have never seen it this low in my life.
Will the mortage rates follow? Why haven’t they already? I’m dumfounded.
albani: speads….at this juncture, the difference in the markets between owning a U.S. Treasury for ten years with fixed coupons versus owning a fixed income security backed by a mortgage that you sell an embedded put exercisable at any time, is as HUGE as ever.
i bet john is face down in a toilet vomiting because the dow crashed through his floor AND the auto jokers aren’t getting their bailout.
fed reserve balance sheet looks like the massive dump i took earlier today
re: #310 - 3B quantitative easing will however keep the banks afloat on life support. Bergabe wrote a paper about it. His theory is that the Fed did not attempt during the great depression to keep the banks alive at all costs. You may think it did not work in Japan, but it did, the banks were kept on life support at all costs.
We get to really be Japanese now, infact I had Bennihanna for lunch today in preparation.
Yikes Says:
November 20th, 2008 at 4:12 pm
Clot - Great call on Citi a few weeks back. CNBC STUNNED that Citi is below $5. It is like they were sitting in the stands but not watching the game, and a foul ball drilled the entire cast in the side of the head.
how are these people so damn clueless?
28-31: OR MAYBE IT IS STUNNING…..
“Light Crude (NYM)
January 09 ($US per bbl.) 49.65″
looks like Lindsey Williams and a bloke on this web site were spot on. Congrats. Now lets go out for martinis!
when your with me, no foo foo martinis. We drink the stuff Sinatra drank!
Unless your a lady of course, because the drink menu is all yours :)
SAS
“Clot - Great call on Citi a few weeks back”
god damn you Clot. why you get credit for all my calls. I called Citi before you, just like a called Fannie & Freddie before you, just like I called $125 crude before you.
you sap!
:)
SAS
End the Fed Outreach (12:00 PM to 5:00 PM) - ALL DAY LONG
http://www.meetup.com/campaignforlibertynyc/calendar/9144930/
I prefer to show my displeasure with the FED policies by not buying things.
I told my wife to buy the scratchy toilet paper.
“I told my wife to buy the scratchy toilet paper.”
USD?
Get your Gold now while it is still cheap.
http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2008/11/14/quantitative-easing-has-begun/
Well as of yet, USD looks to be buying you more, not less.
Schiff on Fast Money. He said gold will hit $2000 an ounce next year and then go higher.
Well, at least you’re buying some. There are some people here that are using corn cobs. I won’t mention any names. He knows who he is.
Nicholas Says:
November 20th, 2008 at 5:23 pm
I told my wife to buy the scratchy toilet paper.
Peter Schiff was just on CNBC calling for an economic collapse. No one could get a word in edgewise.
I can’t stand him. I don’t know why they even let him on the tube.
So Bush can’t get anyone to shake his hand at the G20 summit in front of the cameras.
SAS 312:
Unless the government steps in and relaxes some of their pension asset rules you will be reading a whole lot more of that. I know someone who works with a pension admin. outsourcing company. A VERY LARGE company in NJ has asked him to run scenarios of -25% to -35% ROI this year. Assuming the market stays flat until the end of the year this company (and many many others) will be faced with a choice of putting BILLIONS in to properly fund their pension or have it frozen due to the current pension funding rules.
I expect companies who still have pensions to be lobbying hard to get the funding rules changed for this extraordinary occurrence.
304 SL
Thanks for the feedback. My plan is roughly $10 a month but there is a 25K deductable. I thought in terms of cancer/terminal types of treatment, that’s low on the scale as compared to what it could cost so that’s why I went for it.
“Peter Schiff was just on CNBC calling for an economic collapse. No one could get a word in edgewise.
I can’t stand him. I don’t know why they even let him on the tube.”
Maybe because he predicted the fall of your precious real estate investments?
“Naomi Klein: Bailout is ‘multi-trillion-dollar crime scene”
http://tinyurl.com/5d76ln
“New Jersey pension funds lost $9B in October”
http://tinyurl.com/5nuy88
“Bank of New York Mellon to cut 1,800 jobs”
http://tinyurl.com/6eb2aw
when will CBS collapse?
anyone one call it?
SAS
Night all
“speads….at this juncture, the difference in the markets between owning a U.S. Treasury for ten years with fixed coupons versus owning a fixed income security backed by a mortgage that you sell an embedded put exercisable at any time, is as HUGE as ever.”
Chifi- In English, please? :). If I am reading you correctly, people are feeling safer loaning the government money for 10/30 years @ 3% than putting it to work anywhere else?
The bond market feels like it is pricing in a depression. Do you agree?
Nicholas [#330]:
“So Bush can’t get anyone to shake his hand at the G20 summit in front of the cameras.”
I’m not a bush supporter (a prominent gadget on my Google personalized home page is “chimp-o-matic”), but…
It seems that he had already greeted them few minutes before.
S
I got today a rental ad to my Manhattan apt from “Town Center - Englewood NJ” with “1 month free rent” offer. Apparently, it is the finest in-town apartment community in all of NJ!
I have never before received NJ rental ad. I guess desperation is palpable there (and they know that this building is full of recently laid off ex-IBs).
My granddaughter likes that singer “Jennifer Hudson”.
Hudson has a really great voice.
anyone know this singer?
SAS
was listeining to it in the M5. Blasted it really loud.
Somehow, that music, my car, and my jeans & POW/MIA t-shirt and black leather jacket somehow doesn’t all seem to fit together.
but to hell with it!!!
I was happy.
SAS
I thought Sirius was a good buy @ 4.00 then for some reason I thought man it’s a great deal at 1.45 - should I buy some more at .14
)-:
KL
#328: Go back to sleep numb nuts, and get help. Your obsession with butts and corncobs is scary.
SAS:
Jennifer Hudson was the runner-up on American Idol a few years back. I think she has won a grammy and also an Oscar(?) for her role in Dreamgirls.
I agree that she has a powerful voice.
Sastry,
Chimp-o-matic is DA-BOMB.
KL
“Jennifer Hudson”
yeah. a great singer.
SAS
Down goes Citi..
From MW:
Citigroup considering selling itself: WSJ
Citigroup may sell off parts, or whole of firm: WSJ
“I can’t stand him. I don’t know why they even let him on the tube.”
50.5,
Actually is also surprises me. An analyst that wasn’t waving the pom-poms, an individual that wasn’t punch drunk. How did he land a spot on tout TV?
I understand your bitterness. He’s on the other side of the trade, calling for the implosion of RE for the last 4 years.
I imagine you would rather listen to Art Laffer, Betsy Quick and Dennis Kneale. Barf. Oh, let’s not forget Ben Stein, touting Merrill at $76.
Charles Barkley, to Angola men’s Olympic BB team; [paraphrasing] “Take your ass whooping like men and go home”
“Down goes Citi..”
Down goes Frazier, Fraz-Shuh.
Wow, not even a year ago. Where is this guy?
pretorius Says:
January 25th, 2008 at 8:52 pm
BC Bob,
Remember back in September you responded to one of my posts by predicting “30-50% layoffs” at Bear? Are you willing to stand by that prediction today?
BC -
What are your thoughts on the bond market action today?
30 year @ 3.69!!!
Has it ever been this low ever? What does this portend for the future?
“Down goes Citi”
god damn.
What can I say? When your good… your good!
Sounds like blokes on this board owe me about a 6 pack.
Dive 75 anytime baby!
SAS
Grim (349):
Who would want Citi? They are a black hole of a bank.
They should sell of the credit card and the retail banking divisions and the rest can just implode.
let me remind you with my little tune from last Fall:
say goodbye to Citi…say goodbye my baby.
SAS
#336 SAS
They already cut them last week. My buddy over there told me last last week.
Unless this is another 1,800 people.
Vic [353],
It’s all one trade; yen, dollar, yen/euro cross. It’s the great unwind. It took years to build up this massive trade. It will take years to unwind.
The move today, 30 year was incredible. Similar moves were made in 2003. It almost seems like short term capitulation, prices/yield?
SAS [356],
You have been singing that tune for awhile. Great call.
yikes (268)-
I think we get a 6 handle before the bleeding stops. Awful lot of stupid on TV every day to get everybody really scared.
Also, just tons of redemptions still to go.
How can you get long an S&P component when 1/3 of them don’t meet the index requirements anymore?
yikes (283)-
I wish I could find it, but I don’t have any of bi’s fancy quant/counting/site search skillz.
Pretty much everybody here knows my original call was C dead by April. Unfortunately, I gave them too much credit, considering they could die tomorrow.
make (288)-
The 10 touched 2.99% at one point today.
OTOH, mortgage rates have repriced UP, both yesterday and today. All our major investors used the same “distressed market” language on the cover sheets.
This is your grandfather’s deflationary credit crisis.
victorian Says:
November 20th, 2008 at 6:39 pm
“speads….at this juncture, the difference in the markets between owning a U.S. Treasury for ten years with fixed coupons versus owning a fixed income security backed by a mortgage that you sell an embedded put exercisable at any time, is as HUGE as ever.”
Chifi- In English, please? :). If I am reading you correctly, people are feeling safer loaning the government money for 10/30 years @ 3% than putting it to work anywhere else? The bond market feels like it is pricing in a depression. Do you agree?
vic: oof sorry :(
Yeah. It’s UST or nothing. Albani’s point is that mortgage rates are usually derived by taking the 10Y UST rate and tacking on a spread….in normal times the spread might be 150-200 bps, so he was kind of salivating at what he might find on a 7/1 ARM or 30Y fixed I guess.
Ok. So just when I thought I’ve heard and seen everything - I was blown away:
1) On a conference call, senior members of a certain firm had the balls, I sh*t you not, to blame the plunge in the stock on BLOGGERS and SHORT SELLERS. Bloggers. Repeated at least 2-3 times. Incredulous, I thought to myself, is this what happened with LEH and BS at the end? The very definition of pathetic. No words can adequately capture the degree of contempt for these POS.
Not even the strength of character to admit reality, up to the bitter end.
2) Equally insane (and quite sad), the denial is amazing. Over past two days, many have literally doubled down; switching their 401k allocations to between 50-100% of their entire account into, get this, their COMPANY STOCK. Over the past 2-4 days.
Their life savings, into the same firm that is surely wiping out the common any day. My only explanation is that they’ve lost so much (like many) in equity markets, like a punch drunk gambler, think they can make it all back in one fell swoop.
I tried to talk sense into some of these folks, realized the utter futility, and just walked away. People are going to get crushed, and to a large extent, it’s their own goddamned fault.
Yikes-
Tell your hedgie friend that my next call (after the death of C) is that the Euro collapses completely and all the EEU countries go back on their indiginous currencies.
JPY/EUR. The spark that will set it off.
vic (313)-
The SEC is already back at trying to reinstate the short-on-uptick rule.
That’s why I go flat every day at the end. These buggers are never going to quit trying to rig the game.
BC, I’m not feeling so pleased about a lot of calls on this blog…namely my missing the extent of the pain we’d see.
I got btchslpd a few times for my 99/half price opinion. A few people, it might have been you, Richard or CF, told me that we’d all be sorry if I were right. I didn’t believe it in 2006. I thought we could deflate back to real prices without the extreme carnage.
Yeah, I figured there would be lawsuits and some restructuring…maybe RTC2, but not global meltdown.
I didn’t see that the bubble was not real estate, but in reality was the entire global financial system. Every asset class was therefore in bubble status.
I’m not sure most people realize this, even now.
sas (320)-
I never made an oil call. I’ll give you C, but I pegged WaMu on the button.
Actually, someone correct me if I am wrong…..C is getting killed not because they intrinsically $uck, but people are assuming that they have cross-default with the big 3 & related companies, and they own a whitload of credit against all those employees as well.
Look at JPM & BAC for confirmation.
I actually think that the Big 3 tanking is sucking the life out of GOOG too, as car ads are a massive Internet advertiser.
Some of you may have gotten the call directionally correct, and I applaud SAS for saying as much MANY months ago, but when 28-31 starts yapping like one of those little toy dogs, I find it kind of irritating. This thing is getting thrashed, but not for obvious reasons. The CNBC clowns are annoying, but cut them some %ucking slack.
Did you wail on reporters’ coverage of 9-11 at ground zero in real time?
Besides, if you are such a purist, why aren’t you watching (or better yet listening) to Bloomberg?
#367 Pat,
Me too. I didn’t think the RE bubble collapse would cause the carnage we are seeing. I thought it would be bad, but nothing like what is happening.
sas (337)-
My processor in the office has CBS in a deadpool against Iceland and Bob Schieffer.
By the way, some of you guys were referencing Schiff. To be honest, I am not discounting his opinion, because Bost/Albani & him have a decent shot of being dead-on, but I have to agree with RE101 in pronouncing him a turd. You know what really scared me was Louise Yamada who was on the segment after Schiff…..yeah all 4′9″ or whatever….she left them all speechless….
Macke says…prepare for the age of hobos and teach your kids how to grift….
Go to the bathroom before you watch this….
http://www.cnbc.com/id/27829390
Art Laffer is a great American. Peter Schiff is lower than scum. He’s the type of guy who deliberately sets a fire and then yells fire so everyone runs. He and people like him (i.e. Roubini) set this thing up and then want to act like they’re damn geniuses because they “called it right”.
I can’t stand either one of them and the mere sight of them makes me want to kick in my TV. As a matter of fact, I lost a few TV sets here recently because of them.
BC Bob Says:
November 20th, 2008 at 8:50 pm
“I can’t stand him. I don’t know why they even let him on the tube.”
50.5,
Actually is also surprises me. An analyst that wasn’t waving the pom-poms, an individual that wasn’t punch drunk. How did he land a spot on tout TV?
I understand your bitterness. He’s on the other side of the trade, calling for the implosion of RE for the last 4 years.
I imagine you would rather listen to Art Laffer, Betsy Quick and Dennis Kneale. Barf. Oh, let’s not forget Ben Stein, touting Merrill at $76.
Charles Barkley, to Angola men’s Olympic BB team; [paraphrasing] “Take your ass whooping like men and go home”
chi (363)-
You suspicion is correct. Today’s mortgage repricings represent blowout spreads that a couple of 20 year + veterans in my office have never, ever encountered. The moves are incredible.
I don’t think it’s over, either.
no way, guys! citi is going to get bailed out. it’s the right thing to do.
Im slightly more excited about the MLS cup this weekend. should be a blast.
You know a depression is right around the corner when Nouriel starts breaking out my favorite adjective.
“Now the latest brief bear market sucker’s rally has gone fully bust and conditions are getting again “fugly and fuglier” in the real economy - US and globally - and in financial markets, both equity and credit markets.”
ChiFi,
I think that’s certainly part of it, but IMHO there are many facets to this one.
The biggest issue I believe it the continued amount of questionable level 3 type assets on/off balance sheet, which - for a big slug - they announced they were going to “reclassify” in an ongoing shell game.
The market simply does not trust that they have the transparency needed to properly assess the risk on/off the balance sheet, both now and in the future.
Further, C is incredibly exposed to credit card, auto loan, mortgages, CMBS etc. future defaults. As we move into a severe recession and/or depression, these are big unknown risk factors.
Despite best intentions, our Treasury has been amateur hour for months. Paulson, in stroke of genius, decided to hold a press conference announcing to the world they would not be buying toxic crap from banks.
It didn’t take long for the market to connect a few dots, realize which banks would no longer get a free pass, and that they’d now have to be accountable and recognize the losses for all those nightmare securities going forward for many, many quarters.
The place is just too d*mn big to be managed effectively. There is no way for such a monstrosity to be managed efficiently, or to have a clue about the vast array of business or what managers are doing in those divisions. It needed to have been broken up long ago.
There are many other reasons. But net net, as we move into Bank Failure Friday, we’ll see where this all comes out.
#358 BC Bob:Similar moves were made in 2003.
Can you refresh my memory as to what occured in 03, and why?
#374 re101
Careful there. I know a guy who kicked in his TV set while watching a game and got a heart attack.
To add to Stu’s succinct analysis -
Citigroup’s $1.1 Trillion in Mysterious Shadow Assets
At an investor presentation in May, Citigroup Inc. Chief Executive Officer Vikram Pandit said shrinking the bank’s $2.2 trillion balance sheet, the biggest in the U.S., was a cornerstone of his turnaround plan.
Nowhere mentioned in the accompanying 66-page handout were the additional $1.1 trillion of assets that New York-based Citigroup keeps off its books: trusts to sell mortgage-backed securities, financing vehicles to issue short-term debt and collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs, to repackage bonds.
Now, as Citigroup prepares to announce second-quarter results July 18, those off-balance-sheet assets, used by U.S. banks to expand lending without tying up capital, are casting a shadow over earnings. Since last September, at least $100 billion of assets have flooded back onto Citigroup’s balance sheet, accompanied by more than $7 billion of losses.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/07/citigroups-11-trillion-in-mysterious.html
chi (369)-
“Besides, if you are such a purist, why aren’t you watching (or better yet listening) to Bloomberg?”
Easy. Becky is a dead ringer for my college GF. Actually, I switch to Bloomberg after Squawk ends.
yikes (376)-
Red Bulls are going down hard.
reinvestor101:
Can you kick in a LCD or plasma TV? Or do they just fall over after you kick them?
Just curious…
vic & steve: I know. I understand the difference between JPM & BAC (sans MER) and C. I’m just saying that the last 5-6 days has fostered an environment where several other issues have been brought to the forefront. Agreed though…
Steve (378)-
To me, Paulson’s announcement was planned and timed to serve as a kill shot to C. The vampire JPM probably needs to suck down a giant, new river of cash…and a dying corpse to pin a hundred bn or so of worthless paper to as they lower the putrefying remains into the ground.
Clotpoll Says:
November 20th, 2008 at 10:33 pm
chi (369)- Easy. Becky is a dead ringer for my college GF. Actually, I switch to Bloomberg after Squawk ends.
clot: are you kidding? she’s all Jersey-girl you know ;-)
She crushes the rest of them….
Does the BAC + MER deal go through in such an environment? Why is BAC getting hit so hard?
Vic: I won’t comment, mostly because it is such a morass that I haven’t even made the effort to break it down….the real slam dunks were buying BUD at $57-$58 a few weeks ago. InBev closed it Tuesday for $70 cash.
chicagofinance Says:
November 20th, 2008 at 10:40 pm
Clotpoll Says:
November 20th, 2008 at 10:33 pm
chi (369)- Easy. Becky is a dead ringer for my college GF. Actually, I switch to Bloomberg after Squawk ends.
clot: are you kidding? she’s all Jersey-girl you know ;-)
She crushes the rest of them….
Ahhh she’s really a Philly chick in disguise…. :(
Are you speaking to me or would you like to?
Son, you’re playing with fire and you can’t handle fire. You don’t ask me the damn questions, I do the damn asking around here.
All Hype Says:
November 20th, 2008 at 10:35 pm
reinvestor101:
Can you kick in a LCD or plasma TV? Or do they just fall over after you kick them?
Just curious
We can not lose Citigroup. That can’t happen. Someone’s got to do something
#392 re101
No worries. I’m on it. I’m building a time machine in my basement. When it’s finished I’ll go back a few years, and talk to the Dance Man about what’s going to happen.
reinvestor101 Says:
November 20th, 2008 at 10:48 pm
Are you speaking to me or would you like to?
Son, you’re playing with fire and you can’t handle fire. You don’t ask me the damn questions, I do the damn asking around here.
____________________________________________
Yeah I am asking you. Answer my question, Mr. Fire!
Chi (385),
Agreed, GM is a time bomb for sure. It could be the the LEH for the rest of the economy. The ripple effect through the financial system, pension funds, jobs, secondary suppliers- the list is quite long, quite scary. And their performance in DC didn’t exactly inspire confidence….
Just too many systemic risk factors out there right now, and after a brief respite, we’re back out on the precipice.
If we make it out of this without a devastating recession/depression, it will be a miracle. And I’m sure as h*ll hoping for one.
A miracle, that is!
“We can not lose Citigroup. That can’t happen. Someone’s got to do something”
Terror’s the product you push. Well I’m a truth addict awwwwwwww sh1t I got a head rush.
Fear is your only god.
ben (397)-
Don’t assign so much credit to a fair-middling troll.
Clot (386),
Quite a vivid picture there (gag)
Intended or not, a kill shot it certainly may have been. Everything started to come apart shortly after that announcement.
I think the Fed will be forced to backstop all the bad debt (at least the *currently* toxic stuff) as a part of any deal, to take a piece of Citi. Who else could, or would, take on that risk at this stage?
History will not be kind to our “leaders” during this period, that’s for sure. So many mistakes and miscalculations.
Hey guys, love this site (first post), I’ve been lurking for more than a year now.
Any who, I think I found a foreclosure in a town close by, Paramus. I saw some info that indicated the opening *may* be 174k. I drove by the house and it’s pretty amazing. It’s like 2-3x’s bigger than my parents.
I’ve checked the property tax records, between land and the house, the average evaluation is 500-600k with 1 outlier thats 700k. Bubble purchase (2) prices on the street were around 800-900k. One 2000 sale was 400k.
Do you guys think 174k is right? I’m going to call the town and ask them about this property, but I’d like to see want kind of advice you smart folks have. What do you guys think of buying a foreclosure and do these numbers look right? I’m 28, no debt, lots of savings.
Citi worthless, GM bust; 1m new unemployed in a month; a market that’s fallen farther and faster then the one during the Great Depression; it’s the end of the world as we know it; or from now on; TEOTWAWKI.
No worries. This guy can save us all.
http://i199.photobucket.com/albums/aa180/Gruvedawg_bucket/Bodybuilder.jpg
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NEW YORK, Nov. 11 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ — Today, the Association for Professionals in Infection Control (APIC) announced the results of a nationwide survey on the incidence of Clostridium difficile infections among hospital patients …