Mon 1 Dec 2008
“It’s not enough to have a rail station, but it’s a really good start.”
Categories: Economics , New Jersey Real EstateFrom the Record:
And, yes, it is an oncoming train.
But in this real estate market — more than any other — that’s a good thing.
Homes in towns with rail stations at their heart or nearby fare much better than those in any other market, said real estate guru Jeffrey Otteau, who has been analyzing New Jersey real estate for 30 years.
“It’s not enough to have a rail station,” Otteau said. “But it’s a really good start.”
In an October report, Otteau found that nine of the top 10 New Jersey housing markets either have a train station or are less than a mile away from a rail stop. In Bergen County, Midland Park and Ridgewood made the list.
That top designation was determined by how long it would take to sell out the homes currently on the market, Otteau said. Statewide, the figure is 13 months; in rail-friendly towns it ranges from two to five months.
Homes near train stations are also worth more. In a 2005 survey of towns in Essex, Union, Somerset and Morris counties, Otteau found that homes within walking distance of a rail station sold for 5 percent more than those houses where residents would have to drive to the station.
Those increased values were even more evident in a slow market. This year Otteau revisited that survey, in central New Jersey, and found that homes within walking distance had values 10 percent higher than their counterparts’. Otteau said the findings would “certainly” hold true for Bergen County rail towns.
“This is true in the northern half of New Jersey,” he said. “The closer you get to Manhattan, the greater the effect.”
First (-:
The real estate blogosphere lost a tremendous resource, blogger Tanta from CR has passed away. Condolences to her family and friends. She will be missed.
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/11/sad-news-tanta-passes-away.html
From the NYT:
Doris Dungey, Prescient Finance Blogger, Dies at 47
The blogger Tanta, an influential voice on the mortgage collapse, died Sunday morning in Columbus, Ohio.
Tanta, who wrote for Calculated Risk, a finance and economics blog, was a pseudonym for Doris Dungey, 47, who until recently had lived in Upper Marlboro, Md. The cause of death was ovarian cancer, her sister, Cathy Stickelmaier, said.
Thanks in large part to Tanta’s contributions, Calculated Risk became a crucial source of prescient analysis as the housing market at first faltered, then collapsed and finally spawned a full-blown credit crisis.
Tanta used her extensive knowledge of the loan industry to comment, castigate and above all instruct. Her fans ranged from the Nobel laureate Paul Krugman, an Op-Ed columnist for The New York Times who cited her in his blog, to analysts at the Federal Reserve, who cited her in a paper on “Understanding the Securitization of Subprime Mortgage Credit.”
#2 - That’s sad news. Anyone familiar with calculatedrisk knew Tanta had been ill for some time. I was hoping everything would turn out ok though.
My condolences to her family and friends.
So even if you had a good credit rating, the bank should have given you a “sub-prime” loan? PC run amok.
“In what appears to be the first legal action of its kind, an association of community-based organizations has filed a federal civil rights complaint against two of the three largest Wall Street ratings agencies, charging that their inflated ratings on subprime mortgage bonds disproportionately caused financial harm to African American and Latino home buyers.
The complaint, filed by the National Community Reinvestment Coalition, alleges that Moody’s Investors Service and Fitch Ratings enriched themselves by assigning high ratings to bonds backed by mortgages “that were designed to fail” because of “unfair payment terms and insufficient borrower income levels.”
The agencies “knew or should have known” that subprime loans disproportionately were marketed to minority consumers — a process known as “reverse redlining” — and that those borrowers would ultimately default and go into foreclosure at high rates, according to the complaint.”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/11/28/AR2008112801568.html
From the WSJ:
Retiree Havens Turn Younger to Combat the Housing Bust
By KELLY GREENE and JENNIFER LEVITZ
For Sheldon Behr, buying a condo in Century Village East has meant the chance to live out his retirement years with other older adults who enjoy golf, long walks and comedy nights at the clubhouse. But with the financial crisis deepening and the housing market stalled, a growing number of units at the 55-and-over community are lying vacant.
Some residents are now considering the once unthinkable: letting younger people in — a proposition that has pitted neighbor against neighbor. “We don’t want someone to come in and suddenly have a flock of kids,” says Mr. Behr, 65 years old, who opposes the move. “That’ll destroy our village forever.”
At “active adult” developments across the U.S., residents are debating whether to scrap the age restrictions that have helped define their way of life for almost five decades. Proponents of “age desegregation,” as it’s known in the industry, say opening the doors to people under 55 is the only way their once-idyllic enclaves can stay afloat amid a worsening economic climate.
From Florida to Arizona, condos are sitting idle as potential buyers find themselves stuck, unable to sell their houses and relocate. Residents of one New Jersey 55-plus development are living next to open foundations, with only 32 of 175 planned homes sold. And with retirement accounts hammered by the investment markets’ plunge, people living in these communities are falling behind on homeowners’ dues and scaling back on clubhouse activities.
“The closer you get to Manhattan, the greater the effect.”
Well, how about Manhattan?
“In a few pockets of the city, prices have already fallen as much as 30 percent from their highs, according to some brokers, and the declines will spread to other areas by January as job losses mount and as bankers come to terms with vanishing, or at least diminishing, bonus checks because of the financial mayhem of the past year.”
“There’s going to be even more supply, people are going to have to drop their prices even more,” said Elaine Clayman, a broker at the high-end realty group Brown Harris Stevens, which has operations in the Hamptons and Palm Beach as well as New York.
“She is already advising sellers of Manhattan apartments to slash their asking prices by 10 percent to 15 percent compared with prices on similar properties, and will not work with sellers who overprice. “It’s just going to be a bad relationship. I don’t need that.”
“In another market, this apartment would be gone,” said broker Maureen Smith as she walked up the sunny stairs of a $799,000-priced one-bedroom duplex in an Upper West Side high-rise. Two years ago, Lynna Gott, Smith’s partner, sold a similar unit in the building for $860,000.
http://www.reuters.com/article/gc03/idUSTRE4AQ6KO20081127?ref=patrick.net
From the Star Ledger:
Tolls go up on N.J. Turnpike, Parkway
New Jersey drivers will have to dig deeper into their pockets starting today as toll increases take effect on the New Jersey Turnpike and Garden State Parkway.
On the Turnpike, the cost of an average 22-mile trip will increase to $1.70 from $1.25. One-way tolls on the Parkway will go to 50 cents from 35 cents.
[7],
No inflation?
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
posted at the end of the other thread a few minutes ago…
Mish - “Housing Update - How Far to the Bottom?”
“I am sticking with my model that suggests there is another 3-5 years before housing bottoms in the US. I also expect the UK, Canada, and Australia to follow similar paths, offset only by the start of their respective housing busts.”
“U.S. Rethinks Roles of Fannie/Freddie”http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122809132669667781.html
“Rep. Barney Frank, a Massachusett’s democrat who is chairman of the House Financial Sercices Committee, will have a key role in the debate. He doesn’t favor the status quo; the “hybridsystem” of private shareholders and a public mission “didn’t work well,” he said in a recent interview. Frank said there may be a case for separating their current functions into different entities, one to finance housing that is affordable for low - and moderate - income people and another to ensure adequate funding for the mortgage market in general.”
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122809132669667781.html
oopps the link @ 10 - WSJ
If obama becomes the biggest printer in history, inflation will skyrocket.
From the AP:
US diluted loan rules before crash
The Bush administration backed off proposed crackdowns on no-money-down, interest-only mortgages years before the economy collapsed, buckling to pressure from some of the same banks that have now failed. It ignored remarkably prescient warnings that foretold the financial meltdown, according to an Associated Press review of regulatory documents.
“Expect fallout, expect foreclosures, expect horror stories,” California mortgage lender Paris Welch wrote to U.S. regulators in January 2006, about one year before the housing implosion cost her a job.
Bowing to aggressive lobbying — along with assurances from banks that the troubled mortgages were OK — regulators delayed action for nearly one year. By the time new rules were released late in 2006, the toughest of the proposed provisions were gone and the meltdown was under way.
“These mortgages have been considered more safe and sound for portfolio lenders than many fixed rate mortgages,” David Schneider, home loan president of Washington Mutual, told federal regulators in early 2006. Two years later, WaMu became the largest bank failure in U.S. history.
The administration’s blind eye to the impending crisis is emblematic of its governing philosophy, which trusted market forces and discounted the value of government intervention in the economy. Its belief ironically has ushered in the most massive government intervention since the 1930s.
If I were long anything other than Armageddon, I’d be a little nervous today.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Chinese-flaws-exposed-business-chiefs/story.aspx?guid=%7B7EE4BD88-C86E-460A-B09A-782BBB56EE55%7DI have been doing a little “reading up” on China…Commentary Craig Stephen Marketwatch 11/30″Flaws in “China Inc.” exposed as Chiefs go Missing”"Various China skeptics have long argued that China lacks the institutions to make its market economy and self-styled brand of capitalism work successfully in the long term.”"Will Hutton, for instance, in his “Writing on the Wall” novel says that despite China’s impressive economic achievements, its Achilles heel is the lack if institutions necessary for sustainable progress, such as rule of law, an independent judiciary, and an idea that government needs to be accountable.”While these weaknesses can be papered over in good times, they are more likely to be exposed at a time of crisis when the fault lines appear.”While the fiscal and monetary stimuli introduced in Beijing will undoubtedly help to keep the economy moving, something more will be needed to deal with these structural frailties. Otherwise, the downturn risks being more painful than many currently expect, as more business owners decide to take their money and run.”
What happened to my paragraphs at 14? - Sorry folks… What a mess….
If you can’t tell -It’s about China
“A study done by the Asbury Park Press, the Courier-Post’s sister newspaper in Monmouth County, suggests that these declines in home values are likely to lead to an increase in property tax appeals, as homeowners seek to bring their assessments more into line with the marketplace.
Towns in Monmouth and Ocean counties, the Asbury Park Press found, are bracing for an onslaught of property tax appeals.
Toms River has budgeted $1 million to fight the coming wave of appeals. Lakewood, which completed a revaluation when the housing market was at its peak in 2006, has spent about $1.5 million in the past two years.
And the money comes from just one place: Property taxpayers.”
http://www.courierpostonline.com/article/20081201/NEWS01/812010333/1006/RSS01
Clot,
Looks like John’s end of the month government window dressing rally has gone poof!
re#4 DL- Talk about a day late and a dollar short, I believe the SEC is voting this week on whether to pursue further regulation of the ratings agencies.
I would expect when all is said and done Moodys, S&P, and Fitch will make some kind of class action settlement and “promise” not to do it again.
What good is livining in a train town, if jobs in NYC are being eliminated?
#5 grim
One problem here is that a few of the 55 and over complexes sought tax exemptions from the towns as they would not be putting kids into the school systems. If they open the doors they face a massive tax hike.
“Looks like John’s end of the month government window dressing rally has gone poof!”
he [17],
John forgot to add that the 2 week rally was on lighter and lighter volume.
Transforming Bayonne
City Going RAD to Develop Peninsula
Bayonne, N.J., wants to transform a former naval base in New York Harbor into a large-scale mixed-use development with the help of tax increment financing, among other funding options.
http://www.bondbuyer.com/article.html?id=20081126VS602UY4
BC,
Look out belooooow!
DL, I believe you’re down in S. Jersey; do you know much about Collingswood? My wife read a recent NYT article about the town and it got her wheels spinning. A brief MLS search shows 2000 + sq. ft homes in the high 200k range and a 12 min train ride to Center City Philly.
I think I can keep her in the city for at least another year or so (hopefully longer) but this article painted a really nice picture. No mention of taxes, however.
http://tinyurl.com/5krn6m
Cindy (14)-
They also have a banking system that’s so bad, people use insurance products instead of using a bank for basic financial functions.
BC (21)-
Lower highs, lower lows. Music to my ears.
I hope Otteau is correct about his rail station advantages. One of the primary reasons I bought my multi in Montclair was due to the proximity to the Walnut Street NJT station. I am actually about 10 houses from the station. In a recessionary period, I imagine it will not serve helpful to maintain my home value as during a prosperous period when jobs are plentiful and commuting options are sparse. May this blog still be in place 25 years from now, so I may let you all know the results of my expensive experiment.
Heard the guys on Bloomberg this morning talking about a 45% yearly property tax increase in Hoboken. Couldn’t help but think of those three silly monkeys that Frank prefers to emulate. Option Armageddon is really going to hurt Hoboken. Should be fun to watch!
Clot, BC, Heheheh,
Can you guys at least wait for the market to open to gloat?
Hoboken’s 47% Tax Rise Sparks Exodus Talk in Manhattan Option
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=alN8vLMnAuoY&refer=home
Dec. 1 (Bloomberg) — The blue property tax statement Andrew Sapira received in the mail last month from Hoboken, New Jersey, has him questioning whether the city billed as a lower-cost alternative to Manhattan is worth it.
A state monitor, installed after city leaders failed to agree on a budget, ordered a 47 percent increase in property taxes for the 40,000-population community across the river from Wall Street, widely known from its portrayal as a blue-collar shipping port in the Oscar-winning 1954 film “On the Waterfront,” starring Marlon Brando. Payment is due today.
Sapira, a 40-year-old doctor who lives in a four- bedroom brownstone on Garden Street, said his annual tax bill for city, county and school services will jump to about $21,000 from $16,000. The married father of two says he may have to move from the city he loves for its restaurants, night life and proximity to New York.
“That’s a shame, because it’s great here,” Sapira said outside the tax collector’s office in city hall last week after making a payment.
Hoboken, cited in a Business Week and PolicyMap.Com study in September as among communities most vulnerable to a Wall Street decline, is a favorite of young professionals. One-third of residents were 25 to 34 years old in 2000, compared with 14 percent for New Jersey, according to the city’s master plan.
New Developments
Renovated brownstones and new construction within the city’s one square mile (2.6 square kilometers) boundaries have drawn the rich and famous, including Governor Jon Corzine and New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning. The Maxwell Place waterfront development the governor calls home markets three-bedroom units for more than $1.1 million.
The property tax increase hits citizens at a time when New Jersey’s unemployment rate is at a six-year high and with 60 percent of residents telling Quinnipiac University pollsters last month that they are financially worse off than a year ago.
“Businesses are having a hard enough time with the downturn; this is salt in the wounds,” said Stephen Kilnisan, 58, who owns Traders of Babylon Fine Jewelers at First Street and Willow Avenue and will pay $4,000 more to the city this year. “The timing couldn’t have been worse,” he said.
The new rates put Hoboken above the average in New Jersey, which had the highest such levies in the country last year. City residents paid an average $5,780 in property taxes in 2007, compared with $6,796 statewide, which was 5.4 percent higher than 2006 as local governments raised their take to cope with less state aid.
Political Squabbles
Discontent is widespread, according to Sapira. “I blame everyone,” he said.
Hoboken’s finances suffered from political squabbles between the mayor and nine-member council even as the city boomed. New Jersey’s local finance board placed Hoboken under state supervision in September after the city missed a deadline for passing a budget for a seventh straight year.
State monitor Judith Tripodi proposed a $120 million budget for the year that began July 1, up from $93 million in fiscal 2008. The higher amount equals about $3,000 per resident. New Brunswick, a city of 50,000 in central New Jersey that is home to Rutgers University, has a budget of $72 million, or $1,449 per resident. The total amount to be raised by municipal taxes in Hoboken surged to $62 million from almost $34 million.
Increases Avoided
Mayor David Roberts, a second-term Democrat whose term expires next year, said that since he took office seven years ago, taxable real estate within Hoboken’s borders swelled to more than $10 billion from $2.8 billion.
The city has avoided “substantial” tax increases for 16 years, Roberts said, instead using “one-shot” revenue items such as selling city assets to balance budgets. Roberts, 52, blamed the council for not amending and passing his spending plan by the start of the fiscal year.
“The citizens of the city are angry at everyone; they’re angry at all the bickering and the grandstanding that has taken place,” Roberts said. “They feel that because of all the political bickering, they’re being punished. And I can’t say I disagree with that.”
Councilman Peter Cammarano, 31, said Roberts allowed $10 million more in expenditures than what the council approved in the last fiscal year and provided no suggestions for closing the gap, prompting the budget stalemate. Roberts has said the spending was beyond his control.
Angry Constituents
“You’re talking about blunt force trauma,” Cammarano said. “People are getting hit at the worst possible time and people are already concerned about the largest asset on their books, which is their home.”
Cammarano said he will pay $250 more each month to his mortgage company, which handles taxes as part of servicing his loan. While the increase, which he likens to “a small car payment,” is too much, too fast, there’s no option other than to pay, he said.
Property owners aren’t the only ones hit by higher taxes, said Nicholas Petruzzelli, a Hoboken Realtor and developer. As many as 60 percent of city residents are renters who will feel the sting as landlords pass on the increase in taxes.
Renters’ Pain
Jen Areneo and her husband, who rent a three-bedroom apartment in Hoboken, said the higher taxes will affect the size of the mortgage they can afford when they buy their own place.
“I’m as furious as everyone else,” Areneo, 31, said as she and a friend watched their children in a playground at Church Square Park.
Corzine, a former Goldman, Sachs & Co. chairman, answering reporters’ questions last week during a stop in Jersey City, said he would tell Hoboken residents “that we are trying to work with them, that we are trying to reduce the rate of growth of property taxes or even try to level them.”
What good is livining in a train town, if jobs in NYC are being eliminated?
Ding ding ding ding, we have a winner!
Scooped up my last hit of SRS in the $119s on Friday.
This, while simultaneously wondering how many stores I’m shopping in are already dead and have just decided to operate thru the holidays to soak up as much cash as possible before going BK.
GGP has gone from $52 to $1, and they say everything is fine at Bridgewater Mall…while at the same time hiring BK lawyers. The place is running at close to 100% occupancy, but I’ll bet their delinquency rate is close to 30% and that 30% will shut their doors after 1/1/08.
Good riddance to GGP. When things were booming, they never tried to interact with the community or even lend space, time or money to any community/charitable program.
“Ding ding ding ding, we have a winner!”
Noooooooooo!
grim (31)-
Train stations are good places to sell pencils and set up apple carts.
Stu (29)-
Not really gloating. I’m just incredulous as to how any competent, sane investor can buy into last week’s foolishness.
Ref 24. Secondary Market: I’m an expat but am familiar with Collingswood. Used to have family that lived there. It sits on Haddon Avenue, the main artery from Haddonfield (the Brigadoon of S. Jersey) to Camden. Houses tend to be close together, and in various stages of repair. Relatively inexpensive compared to Haddonfield, Cherry Hill etc. Taxes also relatively low. It has a light rail station known as the High Speed Line that runs into Phila so it is popular with commuters. You want to be on the side of Route 30 (the White Horse Pike) that is away from Camden. The Collingwood High School is iffy and the high rises near Route 30 are starting to absorb Camden. The area between Haddon Avenue and Cuthbert Road is best. The downtown area has picked up the last couple of years with a number of trendy eateries that require reservations. Parking a problem. You can also find a place near the river if you like water views.
Stu (29)-
I may hit my stop before the bell even rings.
Clotpoll:
“I’m just incredulous as to how any competent, sane investor can buy into last week’s foolishness.”
I agree and am positioned short as well, but I tend to wait until the paper gain is converted into a ‘real’ gain before I brag about my investing acumen. I saw a lot of people brag about their (paper) gains all the way to the poorhouse in 2001 and 2002.
“I may hit my stop before the bell even rings.”
Nice.
Stu-
Exactly. That’s why I bracket myself with stops.
I don’t need to catch the whole 80-90% run on our favorite ETFs when they go parabolic. Better to take nice little bites of the cake, go digest and wait for a new, fresh piece of cake to be served.
Yahoo Finance:
Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS) had their fourth quarter and 2009 earnings estimates cut at Credit Suisse. Oppenheimer analyst Meredith Whitney said the U.S. credit card industry may cut credit lines by well over $2 trillion, citing risk aversion, funding challenges and regulatory and accounting changes.
Stu,
Not gloating, just an observation.
Stu,
I was saying the same thing last week when the bs was going on so like BC just an observation.
All right guys. I’m on your side.
I hope today is down, too many up days in a row is a set up for a crash. Plus when GM and Ford go begging in DC I want it to be on the heels of a two day sell off so the DC folks can lend them cash and watch the markets soar. If the markets are already up it hurts GM and Fords chances for cash and sets us up for a huge crash midweek. BTW futures have been as usefull as tealeaves in predicting if the market closes up up or down. Oil and rates are going down today, if we get some hints GM and Fords sugar daddy is throwing some cash down we will end up for the day.
Change my last name to Holmes, cause I am still long.
This is my last six months in Hoboken. Sayanora, you corrupt sh*tberg!
Pretty funny the Bloomberg article quotes three of the people most responsible for the overspending: Roberts, Cammarano, and Pretruzzeli. Roberts because he’s a crook who’s done nothing but dole out taxpayer money via no show/no work jobs and sweetheart contracts, Cammarano who spent 8 years as Roberts’ yes man on council, and Petruzzelli who’s campaign donations along with the rest of the real estate agent/developers kept them in power.
Things have gotten a bit tougher for Petruzzeli, he had to sell his Ferrari last year.
Secondary Market #24:
I live in southern NJ, Mount Laurel. Collingswood is very bi-polar. If it’s anywhere near the train station, you don’t want to be there. The houses are 200k-ish and taxes are somewhere around 4k.
From CNBC:
Trillions in Credit Line Cuts Ahead: Whitney
The U.S. credit-card industry may pull back well over $2 trillion of lines over the next 18 months due to risk aversion and regulatory changes, leading to sharp declines in consumer spending, prominent banking analyst Meredith Whitney said.
The credit card is the second key source of consumer liquidity, the first being jobs, the Oppenheimer & Co analyst noted.
“In other words, we expect available consumer liquidity in the form or credit-card lines to decline by 45 percent.”
Anyone else frightened by the second paragraph?
http://biz.yahoo.com/pz/081201/155582.html
This doesn’t seem good…
#45 John: we get some hints GM and Fords sugar daddy is throwing some cash down we will end up for the day.
Until we end down tomorrow, or the next day and so on, as the economic numbers continue to rapidly worsen.
Lets not forget unemployment #’s on Friday. You cannot keep putting lip stick on a pig (rising stock market);its still a pig.
Anyone else frightened by the second paragraph?
I would have imagined the second key source of consumer liquidity to be savings/investments, not credit.
Cindy 51:
Has the whole feel of the Reserve MMF (below a dollar NAV) debacle. Should not have as large of a macro impact as these funds are not in the same ballpark when it comes to how widely they are held.
#53 grim: I would have imagined the second key source of consumer liquidity to be savings/investments, not credit.
Well that we be just prudent, and so un-American.
re: #49 - Wait until the credit card companies raise the minimum monthly payment from around two percent of the account balance to ten percent.
(54) Stu - I just saw “California” and “no dividends” …
Time to make the tuna sandwich and head for work…
Have a good day all…
I honestly can say this is the worst recession/depression ever. Back in 1929 with no SS or Medicare safety net elderly men and women who worked their whole lives lined the heating grates of NYC starving huddled for some warmth while preparing to die right on the street. Children in paper thin worn out clothes with frail bodies covered in filth begged in the street. Now in 1982 recession we had a filthy NYC, panhandlers and squeege men everywhere, crackheads, aid patents and the mentally retarded were flooded onto the streets of NYC as the city could no longer house them or care for them. The parks and subways were filthy and covered in graffiti and in NYC murderers happened several times a day. Now flash forward to 2008 with our starbucks, trader joes, whole foods, tiffany’s and clean streets and parks. Heck you turn on the news and you hear all the gloom and doom but when you are out the door you see the benzs, bmws,cell phones and blackberries everywhere while people sip on starbucks while on line at the mall. Other than the four times a year people look at their 401K statement you can’t tell from looking around that there is a recession. This is the worst recession ever by the mere fact the spoiled rotten 21 to 40 year old crowd has never seen bad times and now that they have to cut back on buying “ring tones”, downloads and starbucks and are leasing a 3 series instead of a 5 series they think it is a recession.
John (58): Great post!
From the Courier Post:
Home sale prices fall in region
Home sale prices have dropped significantly in the tri-county area of Burlington, Camden and Gloucester counties this year, with Burlington County experiencing the sharpest decline.
The median price of a home sold in Burlington County in the first nine months of 2008 dropped 6.1 percent compared to the same period last year.
Gloucester County prices dropped 4.3 percent and Camden County 3.3 percent, reflecting, in part, what were lower median prices to begin with.
The decline in the median price of homes sold in the Greater Philadelphia area was 2.2 percent, according to a market study done for Prudential Fox & Roach, a national real estate firm.
Burlington County’s 6.1 percent decline was the steepest among the 12 counties surveyed for that study: Burlington, Camden, Gloucester, Mercer and Salem in New Jersey; Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery and Philadelphia in Pennsylvania; and Kent and New Castle in Delaware.
(cont)
The number of home sales is off sharply, not just in the tri-county area, but throughout New Jersey .
The number of homes sold in Burlington County dropped 25.5 percent in Burlington County, from 4,356 home sold in the first nine months of 2007, to 3,247 homes sold in the first nine months of 2008.
In Camden County, the drop-off was 29.9 percent, from 4,886 to 3,426.
And in Gloucester County, the number fell 28.4 percent, from 2,650 sales to 1,898.
A study done by the Asbury Park Press, the Courier-Post’s sister newspaper in Monmouth County, suggests that these declines in home values are likely to lead to an increase in property tax appeals, as homeowners seek to bring their assessments more into line with the marketplace.
The average sales price in Monmouth County dropped 6.5 percent and in Ocean County, 5.3 percent.
Like Burlington, both those counties saw sharper drops than the overall state average of 4.5 percent.
John, what’s more insulting is the fact that the government insists that our recession is a result of the people you speak of not being able to borrow money to buy those BMWs when the real reason we are in recession is because they borrowed too much money to buy those BMWs.
From MarketWatch:
U.S. Nov. ISM 36.2% lowest since 1982
From MarketWatch:
Manufacturing falling at fastest pace in 27 years
Manufacturing activity in the United States declined at the fastest pace in 27 years in November, the Institute for Supply Management reported Monday. The ISM index fell to 36.2% in November from 38.9% in October. It’s the lowest since early 1982. Economists were expecting the ISM index to fall to 37%. Readings under 50% indicate most firms reported worsening conditions. The new orders index fell to 27.9%, the lowest since 1980. The prices paid index fell to 25.5%
From the AP:
October construction spending drops 1.2 percent
Construction spending fell by a larger-than-expected amount in October, an indication the problems facing developers in the form of a sinking economy and severe credit crisis are deepening and likely to persist.
The Commerce Department says construction spending dropped by 1.2 percent in October, much bigger than the 0.9 percent decline that many analysts had expected.
The weakness was led by another sizable drop in home construction, which has fallen every month but two over the past 2 1/2 years. Nonresidential building also weakened as developers face tougher times getting financing because the banking system is going through a severe credit squeeze.
62…Must we denigrate European automobiles?
66, Essex, I didn’t denigrate any European automobiles. I just denigrated the people that borrowed money to buy them and couldn’t make the payments.
30 year @ 3.3.
Bond Market essentially thinking no inflation for the foreseeable future? What is the lowest this has ever been?
John,
I agree with alot of your post. Not a day goes by walking around Hoboken where I am amazed at the BMW’s, Mercedes, Hummers etc being driven around by some 20 something. The amazing thing is the cars are never more than a year or two old. You know damn well few if any of them bought these out right.
I went on a date a year ago with this gal who was about 30, teacher, who told me she insisted on having a BMW because she “just had to have a nice car”. We never dated again. It may have had something to do with my telling her I drove a ‘92 Corolla:)
Will the mortgage market follow and give us a 30 year with a four handle?
I hear perpetuities are hot. Any way to capitalize on this? How about creating a new mortgage product, an open-ended interest-only home loan, securitize it and sell it off as a perpetual bond.
Why bother paying off your house anyway?
[33]
To quote Stu,
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO.
But, if I can get a tax reduction, and rely on values recovering by 2025, then okay.
[66] Essex
Yes. They suck. I am never buying another one.
Nom,
The way the Gator has mastered the property tax appeal process, I’m not that worried. I think we can break even off on the property or come pretty close. Now we just have to patiently wait, and wait and wait, for home values to recover. I suppose, we have until 2034 for the mortgage to be paid off.
HEHE, the trouble when you are single is that most 20 something girls are not impressed by bank accounts. They are more impressed with leased cars, and shore/hampton houses and nice rented apartments in the city. The worst part is the girl with a good paying job and rich parents usually marry the guy who is a spender and not a saver and after ten years of marriage are far richer than the saver who most likely ended up with a girl of modest means who appreciated the applebee dinners and blockbuster dates.
My most famous date that proves this theory was back in the early 1990s I had a single date with a girl I met at the Westhampton Beach and Tennis club. she was one of the original 70’s supermodels for a short time and was on the cover of vogue and cosmo a few times. Well the day I met her I did take to a few other happy hour places like dockers in my brand new jeep wrangler. Well the real date the next weekend I was to take her to the Boxing Cat Cafe in Greenwich for dinner after I picked her up at her fathers mansion in Harrison NY. Turns out her Dad was an early IT person and was worth a few hundred million. My favorite line was she asked me what car I would be driving. When I said my jeep she sounded confused so I asked her. She told me her brother has a new Wrangler and it is a popular “daytime” car for his beach car, but normally he drives his “nighttime” car which is a brandnew Mercedes SL. Well I learned something new. Anyhow the date went good and she planned a second date at the Wechester Country Club. She said she plays a lot and it is great and I should join as she could recommend me. I said can I go as a guest, she said to join first then give her a call. Well I called them up and it was 25K for the year. Well I wanted to date a supermodel and I said well maybe I can swing it as it does include all the golf, food and drinks. Well the other end of the line went cold and I got sir you still pay for everything with that type of one year “introductory” membership and if you wish to renew a full membership is one million dollars. Needless to say no second date. It takes money to make money and rich supermodel wife’s are not cheap. In retrospect I should have threw 25K on my Amex for the club, 25K on my Mastercard for the ring, knocked her up and got her drunk took her to Vegas got married without a pre-nup then stuck dad with the 50K credit card bill and got half the inheritance. But hey applebees and blockbuster nights are still fun, right?
I think at some point the mortgage market will come out with two new products. The Personal mortgage and the home mortgage. The first will be based on the person. You will be able to take your mortgage with you from house to house as you move. You can pay down or re-adjust the loan to meet the needs of a new house. The other one will be a mortgage that is tied to the house. The mortgage will be sold on to the buyer of the house.
It will be a bit like a car loan vs lease with an end of lease buyout and the ability for someone to takeover the loan.
The other one will be a mortgage that is tied to the house. The mortgage will be sold on to the buyer of the house.
Assumability is a common feature of VA loans.
Any thoughts on Blanchard for buying gold?
John,
The gal I went out with was not a supermodel. I wouldn’t kick her out of bed, but NOT a supermodel!
I took this one girl I was dating to Corrado’s in Clifton on an early date. I ended up marrying her.
John -
Sadly, the depression has already hit some places.
40,000 Swarm Farm To Gather Free Food
PLATTEVILLE, Colo. — A farm couple got a huge surprise when they opened their fields to anyone who wanted to pick up free vegetables left over after the harvest — 40,000 people showed up.
Joe and Chris Miller’s fields were picked so clean Saturday that a second day of gleaning — the ancient practice of picking up leftover food in farm fields — was canceled Sunday. ” ‘Overwhelmed’ is putting it mildly,” Chris Miller said. “People obviously need food.”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/11/23/AR2008112302364_pf.html
PGC 77
That is called indentured servitude.
If you are lucky, you might pay it off before you die. Is the debt legally tied to your descendants too?
Bad economy may turn out to be good news for NASCAR
http://www.examiner.com/x-543-NASCAR-Examiner~y2008m12d1-Bad-economy-may-turn-out-to-be-good-news-for-NASCAR
vodka (83)-
Indentured servitude will be one of ‘09 biggest new trends.
However, the new wrinkle is that it will be voluntary.
[82]
37 miles is pretty close to a major urban area.
Good thing to remember for the future NJREReport Compound—must remember to put some distance between farm and the masses.
Chart of bailout expenses to date
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_H2DePAZe2gA/STAqqdE8CfI/AAAAAAAAGks/WrursaMDRIM/s1600-h/expend.png
Stu (84)-
Nothing makes you feel better about the economy than spending hours on a Sunday afternoon watching a bunch of cars engaged in a continuous left turn.
NASCAR should be used as some sort of baseline gauge for human intelligence.
I had an agent who was struggling a couple of years ago. I tried to help her, but nothing seemed to work. As I began to consider letting her go, I found out she was a NASCAR fan. At that point, I couldn’t ditch her fast enough.
She then went to another broker and cost them thousands of $$$.
what happens to shining stuff today? dropped 50 bucks. is bc bob selling in order to buy xmas gifts?
Gold diggers in their 20s are impressed with nice cars. I find your average hot chick from Jersey is more impressed with your biceps and personality than your car. I drove a ford mustang cobra in my early 20s. I had far more success getting dates after I started lifting weights and driving my father’s truck around.
re: #81 to a gas station on a date? WOW!
#88 - NASCAR should be used as some sort of baseline gauge for human intelligence
Thank you Clot.
If the recession means I have to be bombarded by ever more NASCAR than I support almost any Fed actions.
I’d suggest, as a stimulous plan, a new channel that shows all the great racing Speed has dropped in favor of yet more NASCAR. I really liked DTM, BTCC, FIA Rally, Australian Super V8, and 2 repeats of the F1 race on Sundays. Plus they had cool programs on the Fangio, the Silver Arrows, etc.
Now it’s non-stop NASCAR, left turn, left turn, left turn, left turn, yawn. /sleep
bi [89],
Thanks for your concern. Locked in much higher. Amazing, some actually hedge their outrights.
Worry about your own book. What you don’t have on, can’t hurt you.
Big Deal, in NJ they don’t let customers “pump” at the station.
Sean Says:
December 1st, 2008 at 11:23 am
re: #81 to a gas station on a date? WOW!
My friends used to go big early. Story was drop %300 on first date and close that night and move on. 3-5 weekends of bennigans and movies would slowly bleed you of $500 and if you dropped out early you were out the cash. Plus it limited your body count for the year.
“indentured servitude” Is that the definition of a BMW lease?
The mortgage would stay with the house and get disposed of within the the estate the same way a normal note is handled today.
If the kids want to sell, the estate can sell on the note with the house or pay it off. If the kids want to keep the house, they buy out the note from the estate. I think this is the way a reverse mortgage works today.
[88] clot
I don’t consider myself a fan by any stretch, and hardly watch NASCAR at all (there really has to be nothing else on but soaps and dancing with stars or dreck like that), but there is some attraction if you like racing.
Personally, I would much rather be racing cars than watching them race. I don’t crave many things, but racing cars of any kind is truly addictive. You don’t have to do it much to get into it. Its a good thing I don’t live down south, and have a lot of spare time & money.
Sorry John and Sean. The Corrado’s that Stu refers to is not a gas station, it’s a supermarket.
http://www.corradosmarket.com/
“The Corrado’s that Stu refers to is not a gas station, it’s a supermarket.”
I am a hopeless romantic!
#98 NJGator
Have you checked out their winemaking store. It is worth the visit even if you don’t make wine.
Ford to sell Volvo.
IF GM could just sell SAAB, it might get back to being a real car.
The Daily Municipal Comment December 1, 2008 by Michael E. Lane
The municipal market enters the final month of the year trading in its own orbit. Despite the massive flight to quality, as evidenced by 30-year Treasuries yielding just over 3.3%, municipals are currently yielding near record highs vs. Treasuries. The short end, under five years, has rallied in sympathy, but longer maturities have resisted going lower. The reasons include the net outflows the bond funds continue to experience, limited institutional interest, a lack of liquidity as the aversion to risk rises on the street, the recent downgrades of FSA and Assured Guaranty by Moody’s, and retail selling for a variety of reasons. As an example of the current disconnect, the Bond Buyer’s 20-Bond G.O. Index rose 26 basis points last week, registering 5.39%, from the previous 5.13%. It appears that the new issue calendar will remain active through the end of the year and this could also add pressure to the market.
here is a fun questions:
Will the dems undue the changes to bankruptcy law that the Credit card companies bought and paid for? That would be a disaster for CC companies. Do you think they didnt see the debt saturation and subsequent defaults coming when they bought that legislation
PGC 100 - No we have not. Will definitely look for it the next time we go. So far our greatest find there has been an entire wheel of Brie for $5.
Kettle1:
Those changes lobbied for and passed by the CC companies was the final straw that convinced me that the whole house of cards was about to fall.
So when the ratings agencies, IBs, mortgage lenders, insurers and commercial banks repeatedly tell you that they didn’t see this coming…you can rest assured that they are full of sh*t!
[99] Stu,
Funny story.
I met Mrs. Deplume in a bar in Boston, when I was having a drink with someone from her law school section. She was with the rest of that section’s clique across the “baah”, and they noticed me, and though knew I was in the other section, no one knew my name. So Mrs. Deplume volunteered to find out. She walked over and said “we were all wondering, who are you?”
She found out.
“entire wheel of Brie for $5.”
It was Canadian Brie and a little too salty for my preference, but for 1/10th the price of the good stuff, one can easily overlook it.
Inflation adjusted price of gas.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_otfwl2zc6Qc/SR7X_Q5_vBI/AAAAAAAAHu0/19IMDRsK5r4/s1600-h/realgas1.bmp
And Chifi…will pay $1.61 this afternoon on my commute home.
107 - with enough red wine, it’s very easy to overlook a lot of things. And if it was good enough for our French relatives, then who am I to pass judgement?
Nom, would be interested in starting something in motorsports. I might start with SCCA. I could autocross my Prius …. :*)
Paul
From MarketWatch:
U.S. recession began in December 2007, NBER says
The U.S. economy entered a recession in December 2007, a committee of economists at the private National Bureau of Economic Research said Monday. The economy reached a peak in December and has been declining since, according to the business cycle dating committee of the NBER. The committee does not judge a recession as two consecutive quarterly declines in gross domestic product; rather, it looks at four key monthly economic indicators, including employment, industrial output and sales. Employment peaked in December.
Not that it really matters, but it is finally “official”.
From Bloomberg:
Recession in U.S. Started in December 2007, NBER Says
The U.S. economy entered a recession in December 2007, the panel that dates American business cycles said today.
The declaration was made by the National Bureau of Economic Research, a private, nonprofit group of economists based in Cambridge, Massachusetts. The last time the U.S. was in a recession was from March through November 2001, according to NBER.
Hoboken’s financial situation is ridiculous, and the article quoting two of the people responsible for the problem is even more ridiculous. The mayor and council have been completely ineffective these last few years.
It’s still a good place to live if both husband and wife work in NYC and make decent money.
Where is the gold and precious metal rally group from last week?
Whatever Happened To ‘Central Park North?’
t’s been three years since the Athena Group purchased the lot at 111 Central Park North, occupied then by a low-slung brick building that housed a hair salon and a parking lot.
In the ensuing years, the development company built a glossy condominium tower, outfitting its 88 units with marble countertops, Viking ranges and dramatic views of the Manhattan skyline and Central Park. Jill Sloane, an executive vice president at Halstead Property, broke a Harlem sales record when she helped sell a 4,000-square-foot penthouse for $8 million. And brokers, marketers, journalists, buyers and Harlem residents tested out a new label along the way: Central Park North.
But all that seems long ago.
“My business basically changed overnight,” said Ms. Sloane, explaining that she had had the best year of her career, until the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September.
And what of the progress of that strip of park-front property along 110th Street, once destined to be a hot new address? The rampant development some envisioned will likely take a lot longer – if it ever happens. For better or worse, 111 Central Park North may be, literally, one of a kind.
“Nobody’s dying to get there,” said Charlie Lewis, a senior vice president at Warburg Realty, who specializes in Harlem deals. “When it comes down to it, there’s no market because it’s almost like a little nondescript area. It’s just a great place to be for park views, but there’s no neighborhood.”
http://www.observer.com/2008/real-estate/whatever-happened-central-park-north
@112. i think it matters. especially when we see the first recession period commercial from the NAR!
Doorbuster deals at the NYSE today?
114 Hobocondo - How on earth do they find themselves in this fiscal mess when they are still an Abbott district? And why on earth is Hoboken still an Abbott district? Do John Corzine and Eli Manning really need the rest of us cash strapped folks to fund their public schools? I can’t imagine what the average tax bill in town would jump to if Hoboken funded it’s own schools like the rest of us.
115#, mitchell, gold must go down furhter since bc bob has locked in at much higher price.
NJGator, that 47% tax increase is on the city portion of the taxes only, not the Board of Ed or county portions.
Hoboken has some very rich residents, but there is also a pretty large chunk of residents that live in federally subsidized housing.
There are current city council members that live in subsidized housing for ridiculously low rents (and they have million dollar shore houses). The Hoboken police chief is paid more than Ray Kelly. Every city employee and their dog has a cell phone paid for by residents. Tax assessments for million dollar brownstones are over 10 years overdue - I think the last time they were done was over 20 years ago when their value was significantly less.
It’s a giant disgusting mess, and up until now, the “yuppie” homeowners couldn’t be bothered to vote - and now it has come back to bite them where it matters most - in the wallet.
Mitchell,
i didnt know there was a specific date that someone had called specific metal movements on.
patience. have a drink and enjoy the show
[109]
Mmmmmmmmm, brie.
Banned in the Deplume household for the next 5-7 months. D’oh!
Stu Says:
December 1st, 2008 at 12:02 pm
And Chifi…will pay $1.61 this afternoon on my commute home.
I thought I had a shot with $1.65 :(
My company just canceled the 401k match and cut salaries by 10% to 15% across the board.
This is on top of the forced 2 weeks vacation by January 15th and the cut of our other retirement benefit.
May might have been an optimistic time frame for my pink slip.
But I’m not worried, Frank says there is no recession.
[110] PGC
When I was much younger, there was a speedway in N.H. that had “amateur” nights, meaning that you could register and race your own car. My friends John and Frank (not our John and Frank) souped up cars for racing (you may recall Frank from one of my John Stories, he who I blessed so that he would score, and he did, so he asked me to bless the aforementioned Vega, which did not help it in its next race as it threw a rod). If we were very nice to them, we got to drive.
And no, I wasn’t driving when the Vega threw the rod.
But I wonder if there is any place locally where you can “use the track” as it were. With the spread of suburbia, these places went out, leaving only “F1″ cart racing, which is fun in a scooter-riding kind of way, but no real racing.
Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade show 68 percent odds the Fed will lower its 1 percent target rate for overnight bank lending by a half-percentage point on Dec. 16, and a 32 percent chance of a three-quarter-percentage point cut.
Nom (126) - Not cheap, but looks like the real deal: http://www.monticellomotorclub.com/
Riverhead still has a run what you brung night once in awhile.
Stu Says:
December 1st, 2008 at 1:10 pm
My company just canceled the 401k match and cut salaries by 10% to 15% across the board.
This is on top of the forced 2 weeks vacation by January 15th and the cut of our other retirement benefit.
May might have been an optimistic time frame for my pink slip.
But I’m not worried, Frank says there is no recession.
Find a local autocross and beat up on your car.
It isn’t head to head “racing”, but it is a whole lot of fun and extremely competitive. These types of events tend to be much more about the driver than the equipment.
Stu, they just right-sized the 401k match, adjusted salaries to match market conditions and became an employer of choice by encouraging vacations.
Actually, that really stinks. Where is this cheapo company?
Good analysis. I’m here in Bucks and i’ve found now TWO houses that should be 100k off (at least), and yet both realtors live IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD where they are selling the house.
in the end, the realtors either will be screwed unless they can get someone to overpay. and with as much info as there is on the net, overpaying shouldn’t happen.
The Long, Slow, Torturous Death of ZimaFourteen years after its heyday, Zima is finally at peace.
There are a million ways to slight a rival’s manhood, but to suggest that he enjoys Zima is one of the worst. Zima was the original “malternative”—a family of alcoholic beverages that eventually came to include such abominations as Smirnoff Ice and Bacardi Silver—and it has long been considered the very opposite of macho: a drink that fragile coeds swill while giving each other pedicures.
That stereotype has persisted despite the fact that Zima’s brief heyday came nearly 15 years ago. The brand was then hailed as a marketing coup, an ingenious way to sell beer—or rather, a clear, beerlike solution—to consumers who eschewed traditional suds. But virtually overnight, Zima was done in by its medicinal taste and girly-man rep: After selling an astounding 1.3 million barrels in 1994, the year it went national, Zima’s sales fell to just 403,000 barrels in 1996.
Many drinkers assume that Zima vanished shortly thereafter and has since existed solely as a punch line. But Zima actually survived for more than another decade, until MillerCoors pulled the plug on Oct. 10. Rarely has such a famously maligned product enjoyed such a lengthy run—a testament to its brewers’ Madonna-like knack for reinvention. The Zima that died a quiet death last month bore little resemblance to the malternative that swept the nation during President Clinton’s first term.
http://www.slate.com/id/2204596/
Now Nabisco used to have a factory near Newton is that how they came up with the name fig newtons?
stu, in terms of gasoline, can you feel real difference between 87 and 93 grade? it seems more smooth when i am using grade 93.
John,
We have (had) locations all across the US and around the world. Company had about 5,000 employees at the peak, but we are down to a little above 4,000. It’s all about meeting our bank covenants (they say). I do believe them, but the real issue is the complete lack of financial printing and financial services in our current market environment. I am leaning more towards the depression camp these days.
Unemployed GTG (during happy hour) coming to a bar near you?
Bi,
There is a difference between grades, but your engine must be engineered to take advantage of it. Putting 93 in my Civic would result in no difference in power or mileage. Putting 87 octane into a Lamborghini should result in sluggish acceleration. One should follow what is stated in the owner’s manual. Where you can safely break the rules is time between oil changes. Most cars recommend oil changes every 3K miles, but 5K is just fine as it is the standard in the rest of the world. Of course bad driving conditions, infrequent usage and age of motor could impact this.
138#, stu, thanks. seems you are not just a srs guru.
Thanks Bi.
Contrary to common belief, octane ratings are in no way synonymous with quality. Higher octane gas is not “cleaner” or “better”.
Largely a waste of money to use a higher octane than recommended by the manufacturer.
You can get away with using lower octane, but it does come at an expense. Today’s high-compression engines will knock on lower octane fuels, but only up to the point where the computer senses knock, and retards timing to compensate.
[135] John,
Named after Newton, Mass., not Newtown, which is in PA.
When I was in law school, there was an actual legislative battle over whether the Toll House cookie or the Fig Newton would be the Official State Cookie. A friend of mine from law school, who lived in Newton, ran against the local incumbent representative who sponsored the Fig Newton bill, arguing that the voters should turn out an incumbent that had only sponsored one piece of legislation, and a pointless one at that.
He lost. Folks from Newton like quirky incumbents that sponsor ridiculous legislation. After all, look at who represents them in Congress. http://www.house.gov/frank/
131
I have to second the autox recommendation. I participate fairly regularly and they’re very fun. The most wear and tear on your car happens to the tires, otherwise the risk of damage is very low. It’s great to drive your car on the edge of its limits (and yours), and actually teaches you how to react when your tires break loose.
Everyone should try at least one, especially if you drive a “sporty” car. Oh and it’s cheap! $35-50 or so, depending on the club.
#143 - Fun as a spectator as well, especially when a kid in a beat up Neon outdrives a new M3 or Porsche.
Yeah, well in our BMWCCA events, a turbo’d miata would routinely get Fastest Time of the Day, much to the chagrin of all the drivers of much fancier hardware.
Bernanke is supposedly lying (speaking) somewhere at 1:45. We’ll see if he says anything of consequence to move the markets.
Stu/Kettle,
Do you still get 10% ethanol in 93 Octane?
Question…
Is it illeagal for a RE agent to withhold an offer made to a seller? If so how can I follow up with a complaint?
TIA
ps. i posted this ? yesterday and was told to file with the NJ RE commission; just wondering if there’s anything else more i can do.
From the APP:
New N.J. law provides $64M response to foreclosure crisis
Gov. Jon S. Corzine signed legislation today that will direct $64 million in state and federal funding to foreclosure prevention and neighborhood stabilization efforts in New Jersey.
The bill is one part of the economic recovery and stimulus plan Corzine unveiled in October and that the Legislature has been working on for most of its fall session.
While the financial crisis on Wall Street and other banking and investment hubs around the world gets most of the media attention, “the real problem is right in our streets,” said Corzine, referring to families who can no longer afford to stay in their homes and communities devastated by abandoned, boarded-up houses.
“We’ve got to stop the bleeding. It’s just that simple,” the governor said at Faith Fellowship Ministries, where he signed the bill. “We’ve got to keep people in their homes.”
The bill allocates $12 million of state money in the form of grants to certified counseling agencies around the state so they can help homeowners work with lending institutions to restructure their mortgages and remain in their homes.
Another $500,000 in state funds will go to the state Administrative Office of the Courts to provide foreclosure mediation services under a new initiative that’s modeled after a successful program in Philadelphia.
Under the legislation, New Jersey will also receive $51.4 million in federal funds to stabilize neighborhoods slammed by the foreclosure crisis. The money can’t be used to help people stay in their homes, but it can pay for neighborhood recovery projects such as property rehabilitation, demolition of homes beyond repair and land banks, said Joseph Doria Jr., commissioner of the state Department of Community Affairs.
“When the housing market collapses, in a sense, the whole economy is ready to collapse,” said Assemblyman Joseph Vas, D-Middlesex, one of the bill’s sponsors. “Many of these homeowners unfortunately don’t even know who to call. … This is truly a time for government intervention.”
Corzine estimated the $12.5 million in state money will help as many as 28,000 homeowners in the 22 months beginning Jan. 1.
Corzine estimated the $12.5 million in state money will help as many as 28,000 homeowners in the 22 months beginning Jan. 1
$12,500,000 / 28,000 homeowners = ~$446 per homeowner
What, exactly, will be fixed by a $446 subsidy? That doesn’t even cover one month of property taxes for the average NJ homeowner.
bi (136) -
it only becomes important when you are driving a race car…
as grim alluded - most cars these days will run fine with lower octane, its only those that have been tuned to the ragged edge of timing that will have issues with detonation blowing something up.
How do I sign up to become a certified housing counselor and get me some of that government cheese?
Oh wait, I’m not connected to a politician.
No grant for me.
why is it that we have to keep people in homes that they shouldn’t have owned in teh first place?
grim (152) -
but you may be soon.
my brother is running for council next year i think.
PGC:
I can’t answer that question, but my guess would be that super usually does contain that 10% ethanol mix since it functions as an octane booster, but also servers as a slight mileage inhibitor. I’m pretty sure that fuels that contain ethanol must be stated on the pump.
PGC,
Depends on what state you are referring to and its fuel regulations But generally in the NY NJ area i believe the answer is yes.
if you are under 40, you should welcome this market since it brings in tons of value. it really sucks to the folks who are planning to retire in 5 years but still have a lot of money in whatever “investments”. today is a typical day, every assets move in the same directory except treasury, which is doomed to correction next year.
2:10 pm : Stocks remain near session lows as Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks about the economy.
In his prepared text, Bernanke said the U.S. economy remains under stress despite the efforts of the Fed and other policymakers.
Bernanke then laid out the future policy options. He said it is “feasible” to cut the fed funds rate below its current level of 1%. He also said that although interest rates can’t be cut below 0, the Fed has other policy tools, including increasing liquidity, backstopping liquidity directly in certain financial markets and working with other agencies to minimize systematic risk.
Treasuries rally as the Chairman speaks. The 10-year note is up nearly two points, sending its yield down to 2.71%.
PGC :
followup:
10% ethanol is standard in 93 octane although some specialty stations carry pure gasoline 93 octane
#156 Kettle,
How do you store it over the winter. Products such as Stabil probably won’t stop it breaking down into water.
#159 Kettle
Is that the Sunoco Racing octane?
Hedge funds have been hit by a fresh wave of withdrawals as investors search for cash, prompting more funds to impose emergency measures to block repayments.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/583ea4e4-bd84-11dd-bba1-0000779fd18c.html?nclick_check=1
This bond market action has me really scared. I fervently hope that we are wrong about the depression call.
PGC,
I believe the racing octane is 105 or similar, i know a few audi guys who race on that stuff, they buy it by the barrel from race tracks.
I dont believe they stabilize it, i think they just buy it and burn it.
I have heard that PRI-G is better then Stabil, but cant back that up.
PGC,
I use PRI in the gas i have stored. But i have no comparison to other products. PRI can supposedly hold gas for more then 1 yr.
I am not making an endorsement
If Benny is talking about new tools, it means the old tools aren’t working.
From Mish
Mistake To Block Withdrawals
Suspending withdrawal requests is a mistake. Investors remember that Bear Stearns blocked redemption requests on two of its hedge funds and both went to zero. By blocking withdrawals, hedge funds are creating a pent-up desire to get out.
Furthermore, by suspending withdrawals, investors are going to have a heightened sense of mistrust of investing in hedge funds even after the market does bottom. Looking ahead, someone who wanted out but could not get out is unlikely to ever invest in hedge funds again.
The hedge fund industry is going to collapse in the wake of mismanagement, excessive use of leverage, blocking withdrawals, excessive fees, and a heightened sense of mistrust everywhere. Hedge funds were supposed to make money in any environment, either up or down, collectively they clearly failed.
grim
If Benny is talking about new tools, it means the old tools aren’t working.
NO, I am shocked. You mean the tools used by Mr “its a liquidity problem” dont address the “everyone is insolvent” issue?
“By blocking withdrawals, hedge funds are creating a pent-up desire to get out.”
Very similar to a shorting ban?
Question for the crowd and general thoughts:
Will baby boomers be the US’s humanitarian crisis?
With business hitting the wall left and right, and credit markets tightened up, what happens to both the approx 1 million elderly living in various levels of assisted living facilities? Their retirement investments are rapidly vaporizing at a time that they need them most (or about to) and from some of the numbers i have looked at i would expect to see a number of assisted living businesses fail if government benefits get cut. I guess the big question is how far down do we go before social programs like medicare/aid get cut?
How many “kids” have the room or money to support an elderly parent?
I bring this up because a friend is dealing with this as his mothers retirement funds have been severely impacted by the market down turn and they are busy selling everything that isnt nailed to the floor to keep her i n the nursing home.
Treasury Secretary Paulson is about to speak. In his prepared text, Paulson said the Treasury is actively mulling new rescue programs.
Anyone have a match?
From the WSJ:
How to Combat a Banking Crisis: First, Round Up the Pessimists
Latvian Agents Detain a Gloomy Economist; ‘It Is a Form of Deterrence’
By ANDREW HIGGINS
RIGA, Latvia — Hammered by economic woe, this former Soviet republic recently took a novel step to contain the crisis. Its counterespionage agency busted an economist for being too downbeat.
“All I did was say what everyone knows,” says Dmitrijs Smirnovs, a 32-year-old university lecturer detained by Latvia’s Security Police. The force is responsible for hunting down spies, terrorists and other threats to this Baltic nation of 2.3 million people and 26 banks.
Now free after two days of questioning, Mr. Smirnovs hasn’t been charged. But he is still under investigation for bad-mouthing the stability of Latvia’s banks and the national currency, the lat. Investigators suspect him of spreading “untruthful information.” They’ve ordered him not to leave the country and seized his computer.
Finance is a highly touchy subject in Latvia, one that the state tries, with unusual zeal, to shield from loose tongues. It is a criminal offense here to spread “untrue data or information” about the country’s financial system. Undermining it is outlawed as subversion.
So, when the global financial system began to buckle this autumn, Latvia’s Security Police mobilized to combat destabilizing chatter about banks and exchange rates. Agents directed their attention to Internet chat rooms, newspaper articles, cellphone text messages and even rock concerts. A popular musician was taken in for questioning after he cracked a joke about unstable Latvian banks at a performance.
Just one problem: Much of the speculative buzz now turns out to ring true.
BC, 3b
Well its offical, lets monitize that debt and we can al be back to buying 72 inch plasma’s and Escalades’s in no time
Bernanke Says Fed May Buy Treasuries to Aid Economy
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said he has “obviously limited” room to lower interest rates further and may use less conventional policies, such as buying Treasury securities, to revive the economy
One option is for the Fed to buy “longer-term Treasury or agency securities on the open market in substantial quantities,” Bernanke said.
(but wait it gets better….)
The Fed’s balance sheet “will eventually have to be brought back to a more sustainable level,” Bernanke said. “However, that is an issue for the future; for now, the goal of policy must be to support financial markets and the economy.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ak07CSZ_4Aok&refer=home
re: Bergabe and Klink
What’s that definition of insanity? When you keep trying the same thing over and over thinking you will get a different result.
“One option is for the Fed to buy “longer-term Treasury or agency securities on the open market in substantial quantities,” Bernanke said.”
My investments are doing quite well. My country, not so much.
Foreclosure sales rise in the US
Across the USA, foreclosure sales are becoming an increasingly popular way of finding a bargain. Almost a third of properties on sale are now owned by banks, and as foreclosures - American for repossessions - continue, prices are being pushed down and driving an expansion in this niche market. In Long Island one real estate company has set up tours of foreclosed homes to bring in the buyers. Punters on the hunt for a bargain are ferried around in a little bus to various foreclosed properties.
As a result of the increase in foreclosures, the banks now own almost a third of the homes on sale in America.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7752431.stm
How long does the US have before our creditors cut our credit lines once the FED starts buying up any serious volume of treasuries?
So let me get this straight.
The Treasury will continue issuing Treasuries (probably even accelerate the issuance to pay for the TARP and other bailout schemes).
The Treasury will also print Dollars and give them to the Fed.
The Fed will use the Treasury’s Dollars to buy the Treasuries issued by the Treasury.
Disaster averted?
the market tumbles anytime when they are scheduled to speak. there are two ways they can help the market:
1) take early retirement. 2 months earlier for P and 2 years for B
2) re-set dow to 11500 and stop the market for 2 years. (i have suggested this earlier)
#178 - Thanks grim. That’s what I thought they were saying but it seemed so stupid I assumed I was missing something.
ford selling volvo to TATA motors?
Even with tight credit worldwide, Ford could pull off a sale because Volvo would be attractive to automakers in emerging markets such as Tata Motors Ltd. of India, said Kevin Tynan, an analyst with New York-based Argus Research Corp. “There’s probably enough money out there for either an emerging market automaker or somebody looking to get a brand with a little bit of cache to it,” Tynan said.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081201/ford_volvo.html
I assumed I was missing something.
I hope I am.
I love a good 500 point fall. With year end 401K matches about to happen and new restricted stock about to be issued for most of wall street workers this is one time when they would rather see a bear market for at least a few more weeks. I can see Mr. Rubin saying I will take one million in restricted Citi stock at 5 dollar a share please.
re: #177 #178 Grim and kettle1 - There are bigger issues with Treasuries. This article claims the system is really breaking down.
http://www.euromoney.com/Print.aspx?ArticleID=2054070
John
Now flash forward to 2008 with our starbucks, trader joes, whole foods, tiffany’s and clean streets and parks.
I know you post idiotic nonsense, but mentioning Trader Joes with Tiffany’s? They’re famous for $2 bottles of wine. They sell bananas for 20 cents/pound.
Certain people on this board and Trader Joes…it makes no sense.
“2) re-set dow to 11500 and stop the market for 2 years. (i have suggested this earlier)”
- Why 11,500 - why not 14,000?
The 30-year treasure bond yield fell to 3.182 percent today, interestingly enough a muni is supposed to pay like 90% of the yield because of its tax benefits, instead 30 year munis are like 6% today. Utter insanity.
186#, 11500 is the rounded mid-point between last frinday’s close (8000) and all time high (15000).
Yea but they goobble up the expensive pre-prepared food. The trader joe up the block cracks me up the night before a snowstorm the lot is always packed with people hoarding in case they can’t get out. Yet the whole lot is full of 4 wheel drive SUVs.
schabadoo Says:
December 1st, 2008 at 3:31 pm
John
Now flash forward to 2008 with our starbucks, trader joes, whole foods, tiffany’s and clean streets and parks.
I know you post idiotic nonsense, but mentioning Trader Joes with Tiffany’s? They’re famous for $2 bottles of wine. They sell bananas for 20 cents/pound.
Certain people on this board and Trader Joes…it makes no sense.
Didn’t Tiffany cut its forecast after a big profit drop? Wasn’t there also something about same store sales being down about 15%?
187#, john, you cannot compare munis with treasury at this point since a lot of folks think some munis will default in near future.
Down 6% so far. What are tums sales like in the FiDi recently?
comrade grim:
You have been forewarned!
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122809308553167889.html
sorry man…duplicate doh!
Sean,
The monitization of debt is the problem that your article refers to.
———————
John
trader joes is competitive with most crap grocery stores for prices on common items
Our plant manager just shared the bad news with the plant crew of about 80 people. Every time the manager announced the next sacrifice each employee will be forced to make, this one guy would say, “I blame it all on Bush.”
This happened about 4 times and each time it was funnier. Regardless of whether or not Bush had anything to do with the current economy, you’ve got to love the blue collar mentality.
And when they announced that they would be eliminating the 401K match, once guy said, “Great, at least now I will lose less money every week.” Too damn funny.
DJI pushes past -%6.5 and gives -%7 a long hard stare…
SOmeone correct me if i am wrong here…. but grim i think a correction is in order:
The Treasury will continue issuing Treasuries (probably even accelerate the issuance to pay for the TARP and other bailout schemes).
The Treasury will also print Dollars that the FED charges the government to issue and give them to the Fed.
The Fed will use the Treasury’s Dollars to buy the Treasuries issued by the Treasury.
I found an illustration of your example Kettle1 and Grim…
http://tinyurl.com/PaulsonandBernanke
trader joes is competitive with most crap grocery stores for prices on common items
That’s all I’m saying.
When weaving tales, it’s distracting to be factually inaccurate.
700 I predict
Grim,
another approach:
The treasury borrows money by issuing treasury bonds and then pays the bill by printing the money to pay the bill, with the FED acting as a straw buyer of sorts. The treasury has now diluted the value of all currency in circulation and has a second debt in the form of issuance obligations that are due to the FED.
The catch is deflation is going on at the same time. The moment deflation slows this monitization of debt will spark monster inflation. Choose your poison
“700 I predict”
Optimist?
grim Says:
December 1st, 2008 at 3:24 pm
So let me get this straight.
The Treasury will continue issuing Treasuries (probably even accelerate the issuance to pay for the TARP and other bailout schemes).
The Treasury will also print Dollars and give them to the Fed.
The Fed will use the Treasury’s Dollars to buy the Treasuries issued by the Treasury.
Disaster averted?
And you know what is the best part of it all??? - Somehow it does not lead to inflation!!!!!!
Holy JEEBUS!
SRS - 170!
-674.86
-%7.64
Almost, John.
“The moment deflation slows this monitization of debt will spark monster inflation.”
And no interest rate to cut to slow it down. (Hyperinflation)
Stu,
say hello to moebius
feel significant yet?
http://britton.disted.camosun.bc.ca/escher/moebius_strip_II.jpg
Yup.
Bear market rally over?
Al
“And you know what is the best part of it all??? - Somehow it does not lead to inflation!!!!!!”
That would be the rampant debt destruction that is occurring. All of those CDS’s and other alphabet soup derivatives that are worth pennies on the dollar now are the only reason we are paying 50 billion for a double cheese burger
talk about the creature from Jekyll island!
All Green on my screen.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cq?s=,DDG,DOG,DUG,DXD,EEV,EFU,EFZ,EUM,EWV,FXP,MYY,MZZ,PSQ,QID,REW,RWM,RXD,SBB,SCC,SCO,SDD,SDK,SDP,SDS,SEF,SFK,SH,SIJ,SJF,SJH,SJL,SKF,SKK,SMN,SRS,SSG,SZK,TLL,TWM
That would be the rampant debt destruction that is occurring. All of those CDS’s and other alphabet soup derivatives that are worth pennies on the dollar now, are the only reason we are NOT paying 50 billion for a double cheese burger
grim (71)-
After seeing today’s mortgage markets action, I’d say the answer to your question is a resounding “no”.
In a normal market, with normal spreads, you’d be looking at a 4.75% 30-year. We’re still sitting at 5.5%, maybe 5.375% for a tip-top borrower.
Nobody repriced down today.
bi (157)-
How much do you charge per hour for this drivel? I’d love to book you for my son’s Bar Mitzvah. Instead of a DJ, we’ll just hand you a microphone and let you start channeling whatever spirits of the dead put the crap you spew into your brain.
BTW, I’ll pay you extra if you let people throw pies in your face.
“…today is a typical day, every assets move in the same directory except treasury, which is doomed to correction next year.”
grim (166)-
When are we gonna realize Benny is the biggest tool of all?
“If Benny is talking about new tools, it means the old tools aren’t working.”
grim (172)-
I wonder if Tard is a consultant to the Latvian gubmint.
vodka (173)-
Bergabe is in full Icelandic mode now.
Remember this formula:
US GDP = US Debt
That’s when this idiot might stop.
Clotpoll Says:
December 1st, 2008 at 4:07 pm
grim (71)-
After seeing today’s mortgage markets action, I’d say the answer to your question is a resounding “no”.
In a normal market, with normal spreads, you’d be looking at a 4.75% 30-year. We’re still sitting at 5.5%, maybe 5.375% for a tip-top borrower.
Nobody repriced down today.
Hey I sauggested a long time ago - the way to keep housing prices high - if you are first time home buyer (e.g. did nto take advantage of past run-up in house prices) you are qualified for 2% interest 30 years fixed loan. You have to have stable job, and NOBODY in your household ever owned a house.
bi (188)-
“…11500 is the rounded mid-point between last frinday’s close (8000) and all time high (15000).”
Funny. I thought 11,500 was your IQ times 1,000.
#112 Grim - Go to iTunes and check out “I’m A Free Man Now” by Kenny Loggins. If fact, you might like the rest of the CD too - “How About Now.” It’s all about what you just went through.
From MarketWatch:
Schwarzenegger declares fiscal emergency in Calif.: report
Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger on Monday declared a fiscal emergency and called for a special session with lawmakers to address California’s $11.2 billion deficit, the Associated Press reported. California’s revenue gap is expected to reach $28 billion over the next 19 months and without immediate action, the state could run out of cash in February, according to the report. The emergency declaration allows the governor and lawmakers to change the existing budget within the next 45 days, the AP reported.
sean (211)-
Santa’s come early Chez Clotpoll. ;)
Now, the only question is, can SRS and SKF launch another assualt on $300 by Friday?
Every time the ultrashorts base and begin another run-up, the fundamentals of their sectors are even worse than the run-up before. Could a run to $300 be an underestimation?
BTW, if anyone is looking for me to signal any sort of uptick in RE activity since rates got managed down last week, don’t look to me. Other than the usual volume of REO & short sales, this place is a ghost town.
I know for a fact my little 8-agent office is outselling the local Weichert and Clodwell Bunco.
From CNBC:
Some Atlantic City casinos struggle to pay loans
As millions of Americans are having problems paying their mortgages, so too are some Atlantic City casinos.
Trump Entertainment Resorts became the second casino operator here to say it would not make a scheduled loan payment while it tries to work out new terms with its lenders. Last month, Resorts Atlantic City did the same thing, and more could follow.
It’s the latest proof that Atlantic City’s casinos, once thought to be recession-proof, are subject to the same financial pressures affecting the rest of America. In fact, one gambling industry analyst thinks as many as five of Atlantic City’s 11 casinos could file for some form of bankruptcy protection in 2009.
“The economic picture nationally is causing gaming companies from west to east some severe problems,” said Joseph Weinert, senior vice president of Spectrum Gaming Group. “Even some of the titans of the industry are having difficulty shoring up their balance sheets.”
Weinert said it is possible the Trump Taj Mahal Casino Resort and Trump Plaza Hotel and Casino could end up filing for Chapter 11 protection. (The company is selling Trump Marina Hotel Casino to New York developer Richard Fields, a former Trump protege.)
He said other possible candidates for Chapter 11 filings include the two casinos that Colony RIH Holdings, Inc. owns — Resorts and the Atlantic City Hilton Casino Resort. And the Tropicana Casino and Resort is likely to be sold in a bankruptcy court auction, possibly before the end of this year.
#170 Ket - Your friend should talk with the social worker at the nursing home. When Mom’s money is gone, Medicaid will pick up the cost of the home. It doesn’t cover assisted living but it does cover skilled nursing care. At $5,000/month plus, the money goes pretty fast.
One thing that shocks me is the resilience of this NJ housing market. I’ve been expected this thing to correct since 2003, like many here. Of course i never expected it would take the whole world economy with it, minor detail, but even more reason for prices to drop i reasoned.
But even with the sky falling, a worse case scenario, we get a lousy 15-20% correction from a peak that was shouldnt have been that high anyway. That is barely worth the wait, considering how big the bubble was. This is supposed to be the worst economic/housing crisis since the 30’s but I dont see prices reflect that.
What will it take to shave 40% off NJ asking prices? Property taxes tripling? Mass unemployment? Scorched earth? Judging by the resilience shown so far, i dont want to know…
What will it take to shave 40% off NJ asking prices? Property taxes tripling? Mass unemployment? Scorched earth?
Worse…
Time
#226
What will it take to shave 40% off NJ asking prices?
A prolonged period of high unemployment, low economic growth, and stock markets never recovering for a long period of time. When exhaustion and fatigue kicks in, markets find an actual bottom. All this could take 10-15 years fo all you know. If you can’t wait, buy now, but be prepared to sign up for foreclosure/bankruptcy in the near future
“What has this got to do with monetary policy? Like gold, U.S. dollars have value only to the extent that they are strictly limited in supply. But the U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost. By increasing the number of U.S. dollars in circulation, or even by credibly threatening to do so, the U.S. government can also reduce the value of a dollar in terms of goods and services, which is equivalent to raising the prices in dollars of those goods and services. We conclude that, under a paper-money system, a determined government can always generate higher spending and hence positive inflation.”
http://www.federalreserve.gov/BOARDDOCS/SPEECHES/2002/20021121/default.htm
RE 170, ket and outofstater 225
this is gonna be uglier than you can imagine.
before they are eligible for Medicaid, the gov’t does a 5 year (used to be 3 yr) “look back” period to see where gramma and grampa’s money went — any assets transferred during this period (ie to other family members) may disqualify them from Medicaid for a period of time.
This was passed as the “deficit reduction act of 2006 (or was it 05)” and was enacted in 2007.
In our ER we see a significant increase in “granny dumping” — even around the holidays…. rationale for these slugs is “they’d be safer in the hospital for a few days” rather than have to deal with dementia, incontinence, frail bones while they are trying to enjoy their holiday.
It’s sickening.
Why will it get worse?
People are living far longer than they are supposed to thanks in part to better care.
Most are not gonna be able to live at home safely. Most will deplete their life savings staying in nursing homes, assisted living facilities etc
Then when they eventually make it to the Medicaid roster — gotta wonder if there will be any money left.
…judge a society on how it cares for its weakest members….
and everyone is getting older.
every day… older. who’s gonna support all of them…..and eventually all of us?
[now do you see why I don't sleep at night?]
sl
#227 Veto I believe it will be a whole new world (much lower prices) come Spring time 2009;even if the sellers have to be dragged kicking and screaaming to the new reality.
I do not see NJ housing resilience, just many sellers in deep denial.2009 will address the denial for many.
Veto,
I hear you. I keep waiting for prices here in Madison/Chatham and nicer areas of Morris Twp/Morristown to drop, but they’re still stubbornly high. I so see some declines, for sure, but still quite modest.
I think Grim is right, I mean, the fundamentals are what they are, and the effects of the financial turmoil simply needs to trickle down to our markets.
I’m confident it will happen, I’m just starting to lose patience like Gary.
Frank Says:
November 28th, 2008 at 9:26 pm
“If we are not in a recession”
The stock market just had it’s best week since 1974. You call this a recession?
3B,
While I wish I could say the same, the sales prices are still stupefying me. I look at the recent sales and wonder why buyers are swallowing these prices!
Patience grasshopper, patience. That’s all I have to say.
Investor Sues to Block Mortgage Modifications
A lawsuit against Bank of America claims states and banks will short bondholders $8.4 billion and damage the market by cutting home payments
The battle over the mass modifications of troubled mortgages has begun in earnest. On Dec. 1, William Frey, a private investor in mortgage-backed securities, filed a lawsuit in New York State Supreme Court alleging that the proposed modification of some 400,000 home loans originally underwritten by the defunct lender Countrywide Financial is illegal.
The lawsuit, which seeks class-action status, was filed against Bank of America (BAC), which bought Countrywide in late 2007. It argues that most of the Countrywide loans are not Countrywide’s or Bank of America’s to modify, but rather are owned by trusts that bought them through securitization—the process of financing home loans through the public markets by parceling them out to investors.
when does Citi finally collapse?
within 1 years time.
SAS
Any help on what mls 2841374 in closter, nj sold for? Was listed for 759 was a foreclosed property.
“What will it take to shave 40% off NJ asking prices?”
In all bubbles, the last thing to happen is the price drop. But, the prices are just now starting to drop. 40% could easily happen with in the next few years.
Markets don’t work like the drive thru at your local fat burger.
SAS
If any you blokes out there were really smart, now is a time to really become an entrepreneur.
Ask yourself, what services can I provide or what can I produce to sell to locals in your community.
Because the trends for the future will be ways to divert money away from Wall St. and mega banks, and how to invest & keep the money local.
SAS
damn man, I don’t know how anyone can take that Sean Hannity serious? the guy is a total joke and propaganda piece.
No, doesn’t mean I’m a silly so called “liberal”
Omama ain’t nothing new but a paint job.
Private banks run the show, and are racking you over the coals, and bending you over the post, while you smile and watch Disney shows.
SAS
3b (232)-
Just got a recalcitrant seller of mine to “fess up” today. I’ve been pummeling him for price reductions for weeks, and he’s ignored every one.
So I let his listing expire.
Today, he calls me, all upset that other agents are calling and asking for his listing. Says he still wants me to sell his house.
Me: “At the same asking price, I don’t want it. Sign with one of the other agents. I don’t want to waste your time or mine.”
Him: “So what’s the price I should be at?”
Me: “$xxx,xxx.” (A number 0% below where he was.)
Him: “You really believe that?”
Me: “My estimate may actually be too high.”
He then proceeded to tell me he’s been consulting a BK attorney, because he’s drowning in cc debt. Thinks he can hold out in his house for another “12-18 months, until the market turns around”, then sell his house at a profit at the back end of the Chapter 7.
I asked him if he wants to stay in his house at least another 8-10 years before its value comes back close to where it is right now.
Dead silence.
Then, he reminded me that I’d told him about short sales a few weeks ago…
(242)-
That’s 10% below where he was…
sas (241)-
Hear, hear. Look at these nincompoops and retreads O trots out every day.
The only thing one should be long is Armageddon. The next crew is gonna get us there, but quick.
sas (241)-
I just talked a guy out of forking over a fortune to a shyster BK lawyer. Think that could be a growth industry?
My own attorney tells me it’s tortuous interference.
231 still looking
People in American are generally unhealthy and so, age badly. In Europe you don’t see families so strapped by their elderly, these choices don’t have to be made because although they are aging, they are in good shape, able to wash and feed themselves, etc.
When we have a large population of 30 somethings with blown out knees and clogged arteries, expect the worst.
Getting old doesn’t have to mean Depends and dementia.
“How much do you charge per hour for this drivel? I’d love to book you for my son’s Bar Mitzvah. Instead of a DJ, we’ll just hand you a microphone and let you start channeling whatever spirits of the dead put the crap you spew into your brain.
BTW, I’ll pay you extra if you let people throw pies in your face.”
- Clot, you owe me 2 coffees for this one and a keyboard!
Do you take interns at your office? The humor alone is equivalent to payment for me.
Cramer bleating to all to start buying once the Dow dips below 8k.
vic (247)-
You should see me in a bad mood before you fill out that application.
Clot (248)-
Wasn’t Cramer calling for DOW 6000 a while back? What changed in the fundamentals?
SL 231
we could have a long chat about why not to sleep if i can work out joining you for a night shift
vic (250)-
The chemical composition of Cramer’s brain.
So half way through the day, my SRS stop executes and I sit out half of the rally. Kind of like a tie in hockey.
Grim, sorry to hear that its official.
d2b (253)-
You will get another entry point presently.
This thing is the gift that keeps on giving.
[245] clot,
Tortious interference? Without more facts, I doubt it. Maybe you need a different lawyer.
kettle,
“Domestic military of 20,000 planned by 2011″
http://tinyurl.com/5zvw4d
” The U.S. military expects to have 20,000 uniformed troops inside the United States by 2011 trained to help state and local officials respond to a nuclear terrorist attack or other domestic catastrophe, according to Pentagon officials”
“other domestic catastrophe”
to put it another way, if things turn out like Argentina, they will be prepared.
who needs the bills of rights,
now, that we got omama here.
SAS
a week old, but touches on many good points we have debated
Citigroup collapses! Banking Shutdown Possible
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/citigroup-collapses-banking-shutdown-possible-28325
[112] Grim,
Wow, sorry I was slow on the uptake. I thought you were talking about the NBER report.
Let me know if you need a wingman. I can make Reinvestor look good.
SAS,
yep, a friend of mine in SF has mentioned a bunch of that stuff to me.
“yep, a friend of mine in SF has mentioned a bunch of that stuff to me”
the chess pieces are being set in place if you ask me. but, that doesn’t mean a checkmate neither.
SAS
I also think a bank holiday may come.
possibly early as Feb.
SAS
#231 sl - It may not be as bad as you fear. Some people do look after their elderly relatives. We had Grandma living with us for six years and only when I didn’t feel safe leaving her even to go to the grocery store did we consider assisted living. Yes, all of her money is now gone - all of it went to assisted living and to the nursing home and why not - it was her money and it is only right that she paid her own way as long as she could. It is frightening to consider that many of these places may close due to financial problems. I know I could no longer take care of her at home and even if I could, my life would not be worth living. Constant care, 24/7. No one can do that alone.
We’ll get through this. We’ll get through all of this. We always do. Oh, and thanks for being an ER doc - you step into everyone’s worst nightmare on a daily basis and make it better. I appreciate it.
Reviewing the Fed plan for taking the Fed Rate to Zero, and then Purchasing Treasuries, I can’t decide if Ben is a Financial Terrorist or the Product of a Dysfunctional Educational System. If the later, we may want to close all Public Schools, as they are doing great harm. If the former, maybe “O’s” 20,000 Domestic Terrorism Force needs to be housed at the source in DC.
depends what you’re driving.
“A hastily drafted moratorium on foreclosures has kept many New Yorkers in their homes. It’s about to change”
http://tinyurl.com/5er49c
“It is going to be an absolute disaster next month,” said Bill Staniford, the CEO of PropertyShark.com, a real estate research site. “We haven’t seen anything yet.”
Anyone ever sat down and looked at the numbers in regards to Asian and Muslim influx into the country?? Well I have and it is downright frightening….Because of their communal living (10 to a house)and the fact that they carry no debt….they are eating the country up from the inside out…..We have NO chance to survive unless we start living in the same way…communal living is the only way this country will survive…our selfish ways cannot continue or within 20 years time we will be no more
3235 sybarite: The sales prices do not matter that much to me.
I agree I still shake my head at some of the sold prices, but find it much more telling in looking at all of the houses that are not selling.
People that are paying these prices? What can you say, unless money is no object (doubtful for most), than you just can’t fix stupid.
“communal living is the only way this country will survive…our selfish ways cannot continue or within 20 years time we will be no more”
I agree.
Tell your mother and or mother-in-law to move in asap!
SAS
“People that are paying these prices? What can you say, unless money is no object (doubtful for most), than you just can’t fix stupid”
all they know is cheeseburgers and the sales at WalMart.
SAS
#242 clot: With all due respect to your former client, he is an idiot and a moron, and deserves to lose the house.
So he will go ahead and wait, and the 10% less will be 20% or more by Spring, and that is being optimistic. You can’t fix stupid.
and for those out there thinking you will pocket the money and doing yourself a “For Sale By Owner”
you best think again, as time is not on your side, and get yourself an agent.
maybe Clot will recommend one for you.
SAS
#248 clot:Cramer bleating to all to start buying once the Dow dips below 8k.
And than?
Oh and Krudlow tonight has the same tired old discredited we are at the bottom, (no really, definitely, absolutely, not kidding) this time.
Here is just one example some crank going on about how consumers are saving up all the money they are saving from the fall in gas prices, and he expects them to start spending that savings in the Spring.
#259 comrade: That is what I thought. What is official?
246, Barbara,
I know my population (ER patients) is skewed but I see far too many of the “living dead.”
It’s too lengthy an explanation for here but I see patients shuttled ER to nursing home to ER to nursing home.
I’m not saying were healthier, but quite a few are living longer albeit in misery.
My bad that I still don’t have a living will/advanced directive set up yet.
It’s a highlight of my day when I run across a family member who “gets it.” They might have an elderly, unhealthy, failing family member and when bad stuff happens they don’t demand “everything MUST be done.”
These are usually mentally healthy folks who are not guilt-ridden and who have had great relationships with their aging relatives.
Then there are the others…..yep more stories…. too sordid for here.
sl
I doubt this main story. New Providence and Berkeley Heights are down big time, so is Summit. All have train stations (but 2 are on the Gladstone line).
Tis was sent to me from a former coworker in Sydney
She called it financial tsunami version
‘Santa Claus is coming to town’ to ‘Recession is coming to town’ ！
You’d better watch out
You’d better not cry
You’d better keep cash
I’m telling you why:
Recession is coming to town.
It’s hitting you once,
It’s hitting you twice
It doesn’t care if you’ve been careful and wise
Recession is coming to town
It’s worthless if you’ve got shares
It’s worthless if you’ve got bonds
It’s safe when you’ve got cash in hand
So keep cash for goodness sake, HEY
You’d better watch out
You’d better not cry
You’d better keep cash
I’m telling you why:
Recession is coming to town.
Finance products are confusing
Finance products are so vague
The banks make you bear the cost of risk
So keep out for goodness sake, OH
You’d better watch out
You’d better not cry
You’d better keep cash
I’m telling you why:
Recession is coming to town
grim 112
I’m not one to jump to conclusions…
“Official” as in recession?
if not,
just the start of a new day, my friend….never fear, I have no doubt that good karma is headed your way!
sl
bairen,
But how are they doing relative to their non-train-town neighbors?
ket, 251
our dept meeting got a little heated and I didn’t get a chance to corner my director.
I will email him instead.
You still need clearance from the Volunteers Office… there is some safety test or other…
My last few shifts have been pretty tame though.
sl
#278 sybarite,
I don’t see much difference. Warren is down about the same rate. Basking Ridge (a train town, but at least 2 hours each way) is down big also.
Could be; I’m not looking in those towns so I’m not on top of the listings as much as I am in others. I’m still frustrated at the pace of declines relative to other regions.
One stupid listing just reduced its LP twice, each time dropping a whopping $100. I know it’s just to pop up on the hotsheets, but damn, just reduce the price a reasonable amount.
Just have to keep repeating to myself: patience grasshopper, patience.
Any help on what mls 2841374 in closter, nj sold for? Was listed for 759 was a foreclosed property.
Not closed, still under contract, estimated closing date is 2/25/2009.
$759k is a far cry from the original list price of $1.225 million in 2006. Wasn’t someone asking about a 40% decline in asking prices? Well, here ya go.
Bost: I forgot to mention this important item. I’m sure there is a perfectly good explanation, such as the time of year, BUT……the water has been turned OFF…
aLL this talk about cookies and fig newtons…I’m hungry.
anyway, fuel octane ratings:
Another thing to remember:
the octane rating at the pump is the minimum, which means a fuel decal’d as 87 could be 88, 89, 90, 91, etc…
Pop Quiz: Does higher octane make the fuel MORE or LESS flammable?
# Zack Says:
December 1st, 2008 at 5:01 pm
#226
What will it take to shave 40% off NJ asking prices?
A prolonged period of high unemployment, low economic growth, and stock markets never recovering for a long period of time. When exhaustion and fatigue kicks in, markets find an actual bottom. All this could take 10-15 years fo all you know. If you can’t wait, buy now, but be prepared to sign up for foreclosure/bankruptcy in the near future
Or you can also move out of NJ to a significantly cheaper locale, with 1/10 of NJ taxes…
# spam spam bacon spam Says:
December 1st, 2008 at 10:21 pm
aLL this talk about cookies and fig newtons…I’m hungry.
anyway, fuel octane ratings:
Another thing to remember:
the octane rating at the pump is the minimum, which means a fuel decal’d as 87 could be 88, 89, 90, 91, etc…
Pop Quiz: Does higher octane make the fuel MORE or LESS flammable?
well by definition For example, gasoline with the same knocking characteristics as a mixture of 90% iso-octane and 10% heptane would have an octane rating of 90.
Heptane being lower molecular weight would lead to more flammability.
So higher molecular weight - higher flammability.
now for newer blends with ethanol I would not be so sure as fuels have additives - octane improvers and anti-static, and now sometimes conductivity improvers…
But in general - lower octane number - higher flammability (not very significantly though).
grim 281 in mod
Ref 246: Barbra, the reason people in Europe are not strapped by their elderly is because:
1. They let them die. Europe’s dirty little secret. Under European style national health care, the elderly are simply refused life saving medicine. Saves money for the government and lets the children inherit sooner.
2. Ship them off to homes. The majority of elderly in the U.S. are cared for by family members; in Europe, they are institutionalized. Check out a hospital in Europe prior to a vacation period. The ones who cannot afford a home check gramps into a hopspital so they can take their annual ski/beach vacation.
Ref 246: Barbara, the reason people in Europe are not strapped by their elderly is because:
1. They let them die. Europe’s dirty little secret. Under European style national health care, the elderly are simply refused life saving medicine. Saves money for the government and lets the children inherit sooner.
2. Ship them off to homes. The majority of elderly in the U.S. are cared for by family members; in Europe, they are institutionalized. Check out a hospital in Europe prior to a vacation period. The ones who cannot afford a home check gramps into a hopspital so they can take their annual ski/beach vacation.
Al #285
You’ve been saying that for years. It’s time to man up and leave already.
The raw fact is that medical care is rationed in most of the developed world. There is a better baseline of medical care for all, but less access to extraordinary/experimental/radical procedures.
The only way soci@lized medicine works is by rationing. What we do in the US is practice a bastard form of this type of medicine, while at the same time putting no limits at all on how high a tab patients can run. It seems to ensure we get the combined worst possible outcomes of both private and soci@lized programs.
Seems like the dirtiest word in the US is “rationing”. We’d better get used to it, though.
sync (292)-
Imagine being married to this guy.
He’ll probably live here another 20 years.
Clot,
A lot of what I see is really senseless though… patients (of a wide range of ages) that are lumps of live, vacant flesh.
Did you know that a ward of the state (state has guardianship) cannot be made DNR [do not resuscitate?]
Some have files a mile thick with tens of thousands of dollars spent on eye care, dental care, every preventive medicine test known to mankind — not to mention the thousands of dollars worth of medications to keep them manageable and seizure free.
And then you see this:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27997151/
ATLANTA - About one in 10 doctors who vaccinate privately insured children are considering dropping that service largely because they are losing money when they do it, according to a new survey.
A second survey revealed startling differences between what doctors pay for vaccines and what private health insurers reimburse: For example, one in 10 doctors lost money on one recommended infant vaccine, but others made almost $40 per dose on the same shot.
The survey was revealing even to some doctors. “Many physicians really weren’t aware and that they were getting reimbursed so little,” said Dr. Gary Freed of the University of Michigan, a co-author of both articles published in the December issue of the journal Pediatrics.
[snip]
Then folks complain about the cost (!) yet don’t even realize that most docs are losing money on vaccines.
…sorry. I’m just on the waxing end of my anger regarding how medicine/insurance/healthcare/tort reform is practiced here.
sl
Clot, 295
and whine all the way….
no doubt I’ll see his (and his clones) in my ER and have to listen to why I’m not seeing his splinter instead of the guy with the acute heart attack, stroke, limb falling off…
sl
him and his clones… not his…ugh.
yes…going back to bed now… goodnight.
sl
Definetly some depressing news…No pun intended.. Sounds like the survival of real estate agents will become more Darwanistic with the survival of the fittest.