Surprise surprise, NYC in recession

From the NY Times:

No Surprise, New York Is in Recession

One year after the national economy officially fell into a recession, New York City and State have joined it, according to an influential research firm.

On Wednesday, Moody’s Economy.com said that the city and state, like almost all other parts of the country, are now in a recession. For the last several months, Economy.com had said the city and state were “at risk” of recession but had not yet begun shrinking. Almost all the rest of the tristate area, including all metropolitan areas in New Jersey, are also in recession, according to Economy.com.

The downgrading of New York came just two days after the National Bureau of Economic Research declared that the national economy entered a recession in December 2007. Recessions are generally defined as periods of declining production and employment.

Separately, the Federal Reserve said on Wednesday that the economy of the New York City region had “deteriorated substantially” since mid-October. Companies reported “widespread declines in business activity and employment levels,” according to the report, known as the beige book.

The real estate market, especially in Manhattan, has softened substantially in the last several weeks, and tourism and retailing have declined significantly, the report said. The most pronounced decline in consumer spending has been in New York City, which had outperformed the rest of the region until recently, it said. Business at hotels in Manhattan has “plummeted” in recent weeks, and ticket sales at Broadway theaters have been weak since mid-October, it said.

In northern New Jersey, sales of inexpensive homes have held up, but the market for homes priced at $400,000 and up were “moribund,” according to the report. “Larger construction firms are backing out of new developments and cutting jobs, while a number of smaller firms are contemplating either moving into the rehab segment of the market or going out of business,” it said.

Marisa DiNatale, at senior economist at Economy.com, said she expected the city and state to remain in recession through the first half of 2009. After that, she said, she expects the city’s economy to recover more slowly than the state’s and the nation’s. “I’m just thinking that what’s going on in the financial sector is going to play out much slower, probably over several years,” she said.

There were no bright spots cited in the report.

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349 Responses to Surprise surprise, NYC in recession

  1. grim says:

    From the Record:

    Hovnanian chief asks feds for a “jump start”

    The housing crisis threatens the entire economy, the head of K. Hovnanian Homes said today, as he called on the federal government to expand temporary tax breaks and incentives for home buyers.

    “This whole market needs a jump start; it’s falling into oblivion,” said Ara Hovnanian, head of Red Bank-based Hovnanian, New Jersey’s largest homebuilder. He is a member of the Fix Housing First coalition, which is pushing for the tax breaks. He said similar incentives spurred homebuilding and helped pull the economy out of recession in the mid-1970s.

    Hovnanian spoke at a New Jersey Builders Association seminar called “Surviving Today; Thriving Tomorrow,” aimed at builders coping with the worst housing downturn in decades. Here’s how tough the builders’ situation is: one of the speakers was a bankruptcy attorney who told the builders that bankruptcy, while unpleasant, might be the best course in desperate times.

    A recent survey of 30 large homebuilders, including Hovnanian, found that their sales fell to 4,600 units in October — down about 80 percent from the 24,500 sold in October 2005, at the peak of the recent housing boom. That’s a market that’s barely functioning, Hovnanian said.

    Also at Wednesday’s seminar, held at the Courtyard by Marriott in Cranbury:

    Jeffrey Otteau of East Brunswick-based Otteau Valuation Group predicted that New Jersey housing prices will drop another 8 percent or so, returning to their 2003 levels by mid-2009. He said the market may begin to recover in 2010, but only if the job market improves and credit becomes more available.

    James W. Hughes, a Rutgers economist, said New Jersey lost 25,000 private-sector jobs in the first 10 months of the year. Based on the state’s experiences in past recessions, he predicted that the job cuts aren’t over.

    “There will be substantial hits to come,” he said. And the job cuts on Wall Street will ripple through New Jersey, where many financial professionals live.

  2. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    Credit Suisse to Eliminate 5,300 Jobs After Losses This Quarter

    Credit Suisse Group AG, Switzerland’s second-largest bank, will eliminate 5,300 jobs and scrap bonuses for its top executives after about 3 billion francs ($2.5 billion) of losses in the past two months.

    The job cuts, which amount to 11 percent of the workforce, include about 3,800 at the securities unit, Zurich-based Credit Suisse said today. The 2 billion francs in savings will help it weather the “continuing challenging market conditions,” Chief Executive Officer Brady Dougan said in a statement.

  3. Cindy says:

    http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200812/blodget-wall-street/3

    “Why Wall Street Always Blows It”
    The Atlantic – Henry Blodget

    It’s different his time….

  4. DL says:

    “Builder giving away house at Eagles game.”
    It might be time for the “Hail Mary” pass, but in this case the team is not the Philadelphia Eagles but Pulte Homes Inc.’s Delaware Valley Division. It will give away a $300,000 home – or that amount toward the purchase of one of its more-expensive houses in one of its 17 communities – during the Browns vs. Birds game at Lincoln Financial Field on Dec. 15.

    To win, all you need to do is throw a football through a model of a Pulte-built house set up on the field at halftime at the Monday night game. Three fans will be making the attempt, but only one can walk away a winner – not counting the Internal Revenue Service, which will receive lots of cash when the winner files a 2008 tax return.

    http://www.philly.com/inquirer/business/homepage/20081204_Builder_giving_away_house_at_Eagles_game.html

  5. DL says:

    Anyone willing to place a bet on this project falling through before completion?

    “City Council’s Committee on Rules voted 9-0 yesterday to allow Hill International Real Estate Partners to blow past a current 125-foot height limit for that property to create a $1.1 billion, 63-floor office tower and 26-story hotel with a department store, a movie/dinner theater, and a supermarket at the base.

    The project does not have an anchor tenant signed – critical for its viability – but Councilman Darrell L. Clarke, whose district encompasses the project, said he had spoken with prospective tenants.

    http://www.philly.com/inquirer/home_top_left_story/20081204_City_s_tallest_building_gets_Council_committee_approval.html

  6. grim says:

    From the Press of Atlantic City:

    Southern New Jersey counties suffer state’s worst unemployment rates

    Atlantic, Cape May and Cumberland counties experienced the highest unemployment rates in the state in October, suggesting that area workers are poised to suffer through a harsh winter economically.

    The region’s unemployment rate this time of year is usually higher than in the rest of New Jersey because of tourism’s seasonal work cycle. But the numbers are significantly worse than they were a year ago. Because of that, experts wonder how high unemployment will go during the off-season months of January and February, when stores lay off workers hired for the holidays.

    A Press of Atlantic City review of state Labor Department statistics showed the area counties’ unemployment rates to be higher than in all other counties and significantly higher than the state average of 5.6 percent.

    Cumberland County was worst, with 8.3 percent of the work force unemployed in October, the last month for which data were available. Cumberland’s rate already rivaled the 8.2 percent high it experienced last winter, in February.

    The October unemployment rate was 7.6 percent in Cape May County and 7.3 percent in Atlantic. The numbers represent about 20,000 workers without jobs region wide.

    “Those numbers are gruesome because we know the winter is when people hunker down and don’t spend money,” said Anthony Perniciaro, research dean at Atlantic-Cape May Community College.

  7. cooper says:

    Ford’s track record plays a lot like… uh SH*T!-from Mish

    Ford Profitability Schedule

    Flashback June 22, 2006: Ford to be profitable in 2008

    Ford Motor Co. said it was on track to meet its goal of making its North American auto business profitable by 2008 and remained committed to that target. Mark Fields, Ford’s president of the Americas, announced the company’s upcoming vehicle line-up and a push to offer more fuel-efficient vehicles.

    Flashback November 8, 2007: Ford To Be Profitable in 2009

    Ford said it was on track to meet its goal of being profitable in North America and in all of its automotive operations by 2009.

    Flashback May 22, 2008: Ford To Break Even in 2009

    Ford said Thursday it likely will not hit its target to be profitable in 2009, but will just break even said Ford CEO Alan Mulally. “Overall, we expect to be about break-even companywide in 2009 — with continued strong results in Europe and South America.”

    Flashback December 2, 2008: Ford sees at least breakeven in 2011

    Ford Motor Co said on Tuesday it expects overall and North American automotive business pretax results to break even or be profitable in 2011.

  8. Clotpoll says:

    ChiFi (from 180, last thread)-

    Yes, I think it is only a proposal on the part of Treasury.

    However, say Treasury begins purchasing the amount of MBS required to drop rates to 4.5%. Were this to actually work in stimulating lending (which is unclear), I suspect the only borrowers in line for purchase money (not refinance) will be subprime zombies. I’ve become firmly convinced that no one of sound mind right now is really looking to take on significant debt obligation of any kind. One of the ways I know the market is at its nadir is that the players- on both sides of the fence- are, almost entirely, spectacular morons.

  9. Cindy says:

    http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/

    Economist’s View
    “Fed Watch: Potentially Very Bad Policy” (regarding the trial balloon the Treasury floated yesterday leaking plans to stem the decline of the housing market)

    “Perhaps I worry too much. Perhaps it really will be temporary. Consider, however, who is behind this proposal:

    The Treasury plan is similar to ideas previously floated by the National Association of Realtors and the lobby group for home builders…

    “I can only think of Adam Smith’s warning: The proposal of any new law or regulation which comes from (businessmen), ought always to be listened to with great precaution,
    ….”

  10. DL says:

    Ref 6. What a great time to raise property taxes. And the only recommendation Gov C has is for counties to defer payments to the State pension fund and beg the P-elect for cash. My impression is that the sincere hope of all involved, from the banks to the car manufacturers, to unions, and government is to create the perception of potentially being prepared to consider the possibility of reviewing a plan to take action in the event that things do not improve in the future.

  11. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    Bank of England Cuts Key Interest Rate to 2%, Lowest Since 1951

    The Bank of England cut the benchmark interest rate to the lowest level since 1951 as lenders rationed credit, pushing the U.K. economy deeper into a recession.

    The Monetary Policy Committee, led by Governor Mervyn King, reduced the bank rate by 1 percentage point to 2 percent, the central bank said in London today. The move matched the median forecast of 61 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Sweden’s central bank also cut its rate today by the most since 1992.

    King discussed the possibility of lowering the interest rate to zero for the first time on Nov. 25 and said the biggest challenge he faces is renewing the flow of credit in the economy. Service industries, manufacturing and construction shrank at the fastest pace on record last month and house prices dropped 2.6 percent, the most since 1992.

    “There’s no sign that any of the data is in any way bottoming out, and it justifies big moves in interest rates,” said Grant Lewis, an economist at Daiwa Securities SMBC Europe Ltd. in London and a former U.K. Treasury official. “There are further cuts in the pipeline.”

  12. grim says:

    MarketWatch is reporting the cut brings the rate to the lowest since 1939.

    Also from MW:

    Bank of England cuts key rate to 2% from 3%
    Bank of England: consumer spending has stalled
    Bank of England: surveys suggest downturn has gathered pace

  13. Clotpoll says:

    Cindy (9)-

    The idea is pure insanity; that’s how you know it was originated by my industry’s toxic lobbying arm. Even if Treasury undertakes market operations necessary to bring rates into the 4.5% range, those rates will only hold temporarily. After that passes, rates will rise again, and prices will resume their fall.

    The only outcome will be that many people who buy during the 4.5% rate phase will drop into negative equity, thereby increasing their chances of foreclosure. If they aren’t foreclosed, they will be trapped in their homes for far longer than their anticipated window of occupancy.

    Look at CA, NV, FL, AZ. Sales are going great guns at current rates (which are historically low). Why? Because PRICES have been allowed to fall to levels that buyers cannot resist.

  14. Clotpoll says:

    The push to artificially stabilize housing prices has only one motivator: to create some kind of price floor under gazillions of dollars in worthless MBS and CDOs.

    Why else would so many powerful people be so frightened by falling prices in an asset class that only represents- at best- 4% of GDP?

  15. grim says:

    Has anyone seen a list of MBS the Fed has purchased in the open market? Any proof at all? What is the current tally? How much do they have left to spend?

    I’m not so sure they have, and frankly, I’m impressed the market has moved so far, so quickly, on nothing but jawboning and promises.

    I can’t see 4.5% being anything but temporary. I even have reservations about 5.5% being sustainable.

  16. grim says:

    A 4-handle on an FHA loan is another way of saying the taxpayer plans to bear all risk of default.

  17. Clotpoll says:

    Some talking head on CNBC, begging the Fed for ZIRP now.

    Bell lap in the race to the bottom has begun.

  18. grim says:

    Bye bye Bair

    Geithner May Seek to Push Bair Out After Clashes During Crisis

    Timothy Geithner, President-elect Barack Obama’s choice for U.S. Treasury Secretary, is seeking to push Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Sheila Bair out of office.

    Geithner, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, has argued Bair isn’t a team player and is too focused on protecting her agency rather than the financial system as a whole, according to two congressional officials and a person familiar with his thinking. Bair has battled with Geithner and fellow regulators over aid to Citigroup Inc. and other emergency actions, making her enemies in the Bush administration.

  19. grim says:

    Way off topic, but very interesting.

    From the Evening Standard (UK):

    Woolworths collapse threatens 30,000 jobs

    Woolworths looks set to disappear from the High Street at a probable cost of 30,000 jobs after Dragons’ Den entrepreneur Theo Paphitis failed to agree a rescue deal.

    Closing time: the deadline for a deal to save the High Street chain is 4pm today

  20. Clotpoll says:

    grim (16)-

    We are bearing all default risk…at ANY rate. Two recent FHA-approved purchasers through my office bounced their $1,000 initial deposit checks. Not surprisingly, both buyers were pre-approved at FICOs in the 560 range. Inevitably, both these deals will close (albeit with great difficulty).

    Every deal that’s done with buyers approved under these guidelines pushes out the eventual date of housing recovery. We’ll still be seeing significant defaults going into 2012.

  21. grim says:

    From CNBC:

    Plunge in Mortgage Rates Won’t End Housing Slump

    The lowest mortgage rates in three years are luring first-time buyers and cost-cutting refinancers, but falling home prices and mounting unemployment will keep U.S. housing in its deepest slump since the Great Depression.

    Applications to buy and refinance homes hurtled higher last week as the lowest rates since the summer of 2005 unleashed pent-up demand. But the rush of activity does not portend a sustained boon to housing and the economy, analysts said.

    “The lower interest rate will help, but that’s not the whole story,” said Doug Duncan, chief economist at Fannie Mae . “Unemployment is going up and consumers have pulled way back and are trying to build savings, so they’re not going to be aggressively in the housing market.”

    “House price declines and interest-rate declines make housing more affordable. But the bottom line problem is not that people need to refinance, we need to sell some houses and reduce inventory,” Duncan said.

    And that may be slow going if house prices fall into 2010, as Duncan forecasts. New home building, “where you add to GDP,” won’t bottom until the second quarter of next year, he said.

    “Much lower mortgage rates are better than higher rates, but these are still not normal times so we can’t expect miracles,” said Nancy Vanden Houten, analyst at Stone & McCarthy Research Associates in Princeton, New Jersey.

  22. Cindy says:

    (13) Clot – “..because prices have been allowed to fall..” I completely agree – I thought they just published an increase in loan apps before this foolish talk? Now won’t that stall in the water as buyers wait to see if they can get a lower rate? Can’t they keep their hands off and see what happens.

    It is as though the powers that be need to try to appease everyone – again – we appear to be floundering.

    And doesn’t that corner the market so to speak? Isn’t it a form of “price fixing?”

  23. grim says:

    Now won’t that stall in the water as buyers wait to see if they can get a lower rate? Can’t they keep their hands off and see what happens.

    Given the approach by which the Treasury will attempt to lower mortgage rates, it would be in the buyers self-interest to remain sidelined until mortgage rates actually fall to these proposed levels. Given that the manipulation will be in the open market, and not through legislative or fiscal means, there will likely be no way to retroactively apply these rates to existing loans.

    Why buy now at 5.5-6% when you can buy tomorrow at both a lower price and a lower rate?

    Sounds like a win-win argument for staying on the sidelines. If you gotta buy, you gotta buy. But don’t tell me you can’t wait a month or two to do it.

  24. Seneca says:

    Are Comp Killers even interesting to anyone anymore? If so, here you go:

    MLS#: 2612923 (just listed)

    17 LARGO
    Clark

    SLD: 12/05/02 $485,000
    SLD: 11/03/06 $680,000

    Listed on 12/03/08
    for $649,900

    … so 4.4% reduction of what the current owner paid in 2006. This wouldn’t be unusual except that this is the first listing I have seen in this town where the owner is acknowledging that prices today ain’t what they were in 2005 or 2006. Most of the homes for sale in this town are still asking peak (which is an improvement over last year where they were asking peak +5%).

  25. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    European Central Bank cuts key rate to 2.5% from 3.25%

    The European Central Bank on Thursday cut its key lending rate to 2.5% from 3.25%.

  26. Cindy says:

    http://www.reuters.com/article/GCA-CreditCrisis/idUSTRE4B31H420081204

    China Urges US to stabilize its economy…..

    “I hope the United States will take all necessary measures to stabilize its economy and financial markets as soon as possible and to ensure the security of Chinese investments and interests in the United States…”

  27. Clotpoll says:

    Cindy (22)-

    “It is as though the powers that be need to try to appease everyone – again – we appear to be floundering.”

    The RE market will flounder…until it fails completely.

    Which I guarantee you, will happen.

  28. Cindy says:

    Anecdotal – Real estate friend -There are even a few bidding wars
    on some of the better foreclosures here – now the whole thing will probably slow down ….what a bunch of losers.

  29. Clotpoll says:

    Cindy (26)-

    Let me take this opportunity to urge China to subjugate its population.

  30. reinvestor101 says:

    Is this what this nation is going to come to? People who are too cheap to buy something? People saving 80% of their income? This is ridiculous and the main reason communist China is going down hard. They need us badly because their own people don’t like to spend money. No doubt that there are a few here that will express admiration. Can you imagine someone whose last clothing purchase was 10 years ago?

    To be sure, toilet paper over there would be considered a damn luxury. I know at least one person here who would be entirely confortable with that scenario.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/03/world/asia/03china.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1

    He does not know it yet, but Dang Fu has been tapped to save the Chinese economy.

    A ruddy-faced millet farmer from northeast China, Mr. Dang, 56, has managed to save two-thirds of his family’s $2,200 annual income in recent years. He grows much of his own food, wears a winter coat until it is ready for the rag heap and buys niceties only when his wife’s nagging becomes intolerable.

    Last year’s indulgence, a new 25-inch television, still makes him wince. “It was painful to spend so much money,” he said, strolling through the aisles of a supermarket last week with his prodigal sister-in-law (she saves just half of her salary)…..Mr. Dang and his wife, Zhang Fengxia, 52, are the apotheosis of Chinese thrift. They do not use banks — “better to keep money at home,” Ms. Zhang said — and the couple’s biggest expenditure was a used tractor they bought for $1,200 a few years ago. Everything else is set aside for their retirement and for potential medical costs.

    Asked if she would use a credit card if one were given to her, Ms. Zhang looked confounded. “What’s a credit card?” she asked, adding, “We have everything we need.”….Ms. Li teased her mother about her miserly ways, pointing out that her last clothing purchase was a decade ago. Her mother, Xing Xiuqin, 60, bragged that she managed to stash away 80 percent of her income before retiring. “Old people just need one outfit,” she said. “You should save everything for your kids.”

  31. Cindy says:

    (29) Clot – I’m just trying to figure out who all they are trying to appease – builders, NAR and China?

  32. Clotpoll says:

    Tard (30)-

    Turn the biggest peasant population on Earth into debt junkies.

    That’ll fix things.

    Better we bring back debtor prisons…and toss you into one.

    Moron.

  33. Clotpoll says:

    Cindy (31)-

    Like good whores, they service all equally.

  34. chicagofinance says:

    Clotpoll Says:
    December 4th, 2008 at 7:00 am
    ChiFi (from 180, last thread)-
    Were this to actually work in stimulating lending (which is unclear), I suspect the only borrowers in line for purchase money (not refinance) will be subprime zombies.

    clot: what about the pant-up?

  35. lostinny says:

    Hey all.
    I’ve been away as father-in-law passed away on Thanksgiving. We went to Tampa for the services. Unfortunately, we are now caught up in a real estate nightmare because father-in-law left the house to DH.
    Father-in-law bought at near peak. Grandmother tells me I have no idea what I’m talking about and that the house is worth more then what they bought it for. (FIL bought with brother. Grandma bought brother out. She owns half). Grandmother also holds mortgage. Grandmother thinks we should be on the hook for depreciation upon sale/lack of rental income. Now I can tell a bank to go screw. But I don’t know how to do that with grandma.
    The agent that put the deal together is a friend of the family and is trying to be a go between. Somehow I see a huge problem anyway. Any advice from lawyers and or agents?

  36. Clotpoll says:

    Chi (34)-

    The pant-up will only respond to price, not financing rates.

    The fear of a continued decline in the asset outweighs the possible benefit of low-rate financing.

  37. HEHEHE says:

    Bond Risk Surges to Record on Concern Slump ‘Too Hard to Fix’

    “The economic slump is too hard for anyone to fix right away,” said Tetsushi Nagato of Schroder Investment Management Japan Ltd., whose parent manages the equivalent of $205 billion.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a_uPmgNdJDd0&refer=home

  38. Cindy says:

    (18) Grim – I like that Geithner would get rid of Bair. She’d give away the country to keep someone in a house – with a restructured loan that will default in 90 days…

  39. Clotpoll says:

    lost (35)-

    I’m sorry to hear of your loss.

    Sounds like you have an all-day sucker on your hands. My first thought is to do what’s necessary to establish the current value of this property, from both a comparable sales angle and an income perspective (as in, what kind of profit/loss can it generate as a rental). I’d suggest letting Grandma choose an appraiser- with your approval of her choice- so that she doesn’t think you’re influencing the eventual report.

    I’m assuming your FIL’s interest wasn’t held in any sort of trust form, so you may need an attorney to advise on probate and tax consequences.

    Good luck. If anything doesn’t sound kosher to you as you go through this, please contact me. I’ll try to help you.

  40. Cindy says:

    Lost – So sorry about your loss then to have it compounded with the worry about real estate when you just want to take care of Grandma.

  41. Clotpoll says:

    Cindy (38)-

    How is Geithner any different from Bair? He has no problem spending billions of our dollars to keep insolvent, dead banks on life support.

    To me, there’s no functional difference between these two. They’re both whores.

    They just serve different johns.

  42. lostinny says:

    Clot
    Already got comps and an appraisal. Appraiser did job sight unseen and figured in updates when the house was never updated. That came in far above comps. So this whole thing is skewed.
    I thought that when there’s a will, taxes/probate aren’t so much an issue. I think we’ll need to contact a lawyer there.
    None of this is kosher as far as I’m concerned. I would have never bought a house at peak and never borrowed that much money from family. Uggh,
    Thanks for the advice though.

  43. John says:

    Wow I did not realize that guy was so big, he should of had a gun in his wasteband.

    Only hours after we celebrated the national holiday for giving thanks, a mob broke through the electronic doors of a Wal-Mart in Mineola, N.Y., and trampled to death a store clerk named Jdimytai Damour.

    Damour was 6 feet 5 inches tall and weighed 270 pounds, but he was no match for the wave of willful disregard that forced him to the ground and proceeded to stomp him to death.

    These people sound like terrorists, but news reports assure us that these were just shoppers looking for bargains. For Christmas.

    You know, “For unto us, a child is born.” That Christmas.

    So far, no one has come forward to admit a role in this man’s death. Officials said it will be hard to identify the hundreds of people who mowed over Damour. Hard to prove recklessness or intent to harm, too.

    I’ll leave it to those who are trained in such matters to explain how human beings could march across a man’s body for a cheaper flat-screen TV. There are dark spots on some souls that no amount of light can illuminate, and sometimes the only consolation in the wake of such human ugliness is my inability to understand it.

  44. PGC says:

    #35 lostinny

    Slightly confused if that is DH’s mother, stepmother or grandmother. If the house is underwater, it makes the decision easier to sign your interest over to Grandma and walk away. Otherwise your going to start getting hit for taxes, maintainance and a great big headache managing renters remotely.

    Just my 2c.

  45. lostinny says:

    Cindy
    Thanks. We’re just trying to stay calm as all our emotions are running high right now.

  46. Cindy says:

    41. Clot – I honestly know nothing about Geithner. But just the thought of having Bair out of the picture pleases me. When I hear her speak, she appears to be looking for easy answers to hard questions.

    I, like you – believe the answer is in letting the home prices fall. The quicker the folks who can’t afford their places move out – the better. Bair wants to stop that from happening….

  47. Clotpoll says:

    lost (42)-

    Your appraisal is messed up. Order another one, in which the appraiser actually comes and examines the property. Also have him examine it using both the comparables and income methods.

  48. Clotpoll says:

    Cindy (46)-

    The result of Bair getting sent to Siberia- by any means necessary- is also OK by me. She is a moron.

  49. Cindy says:

    (45) Lost – And folks are probably turning to you as the responsible one when you need to grieve, too. It’s the pits.

  50. lostinny says:

    PGC
    It’s DH’s grandmother. Signing the house back to her is exactly what we want to do. What I’m saying is she’s hinting that she won’t accept that and that she wants our half.
    Now we don’t want a problem. DH wants grandma to get back every cent she can and really doesn’t want her to be out any money. Our problem is, she’s not the nicest person in the world and we’re afraid she’s going to force us to take ownership. I don’t even know if that’s possible.

  51. lostinny says:

    47 Clot
    As soon as DH gets up, I’m going to ask him to email the realtor friend and ask for a real appraisal.

  52. lostinny says:

    Cindy 49
    This is what I get for being knowledgeable.

  53. Cindy says:

    (52) Lost – Absolutely – Always the double-edged sword…Hang in there…

  54. chicagofinance says:

    lostinny Says:
    December 4th, 2008 at 8:19 am
    Clot
    Already got comps and an appraisal. Appraiser did job sight unseen and figured in updates when the house was never updated. That came in far above comps. So this whole thing is skewed.
    I thought that when there’s a will, taxes/probate aren’t so much an issue. I think we’ll need to contact a lawyer there.

    lost: Probate laws in FL are different than NJ/NYC. Up here probate is a piece of cake. Down there it is purposesly a mess. The tradeoff is that FL does not have a state estate tax. That said, down there a lawyer is a requirement…no question.

    The way to calculate estate tax is not straightforward, but the rule of thumb is that if your FIL’s portion of the marital assets is less than $2M in 2008, you should not have to pay taxes. THAT DOES NOT MEAN YOU DO NOT HAVE TO FILE A RETURN.

  55. lostinny says:

    54 Chifi
    Thanks! Well there are no assets and no marriage so I guess that means he comes in under the 2M mark.
    I’ll make sure to fill the accountant in on all this come tax time.

  56. chicagofinance says:

    lost:
    Note probate occurs regardless of whether there is a will or not….

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probate

  57. ben says:

    It’s kinda hard to claim the country is still not in a recession when Paulson and Co. announced that the next great depression was a few days away right before the bailout.

  58. chicagofinance says:

    lost: since there are so many people that relocate from this area to FL, there are many firms and lawyers than cover both areas. Do not feel compelled to use someone locally down there if you have an established relationship up here and they have represented themselves as suitably expert in handling cases for FL.

  59. John says:

    ING cut rates twice in the last 30 days on CDs, they smell a big rate cut going. When is Hank going to fix corp and muni bond spreads? They are way crazy high next to treasuries? Or is he just going to hammer CDs down to 1% and T-bills down to 1/4 of a % and force people into the water.

  60. HEHEHE says:

    “I’ll leave it to those who are trained in such matters to explain how human beings could march across a man’s body for a cheaper flat-screen TV.”

    I am sure they all paid cash too.

  61. lostinny says:

    58 Chifi
    Another problem is DH was named as executor. There is no way he can do that from here. He’s got a brother and grandmother that are crossing boundaries and he’s willing to let them battle it out. I’ve never seen people who want to fight so much over nothing. I don’t think our lawyer deals with probate. But we’ll ask.

  62. 3b says:

    #23 grim: Why buy now at 5.5-6% when you can buy tomorrow at both a lower price and a lower rate?

    That is exactly what I have been saying.

  63. njrebear says:

    AT&*T cutting 12,000 jobs

  64. chicagofinance says:

    lost: be careful with lawyers…consistently the bills just are mind numbing to people….and they will charge you for every conversation / every paper clip….make sure you know for a fact when the stopwatch is turned on….there are many lawyers that take a presumptive approach / bill first (egregiously) and see if you will pay….

  65. 3b says:

    #30 re@ssvise: Listen Dude it is getting old with the toilet paper thing, but I guess it helps you deal with your @ss obsession.

    Let us look at the facts, you have introduced us to corncobs, and how you utilize them. Yesterday and for the past few weeks, you have been telling us how your @ss is in a vise, over and over again you have discussed your @ss and a vise.

    So now we have been introduced to yet another aspect of you fixation with a particular part of the body.

    Please you should seek professioal help. Do it for your spouse.

  66. 3b says:

    #36 clot: That is why potential buyers are going to get a lower price with a lower rate.

    During the last housing bust (as I am sure you remember) prices and rates were falling;it was a great time to buy.

  67. lostinny says:

    65 Chifi
    Thanks for the heads up. Hopefully, it won’t get that far.

  68. 3b says:

    #57 It’s kinda hard to claim the country is still not in a recession when

    We were officially declared to be in a recession earlier in the week;it is official now.

  69. PGC says:

    #50 lostinny

    I think at that point you can give her a choice, you can sign the house to her or file a quit claim and let the house go back to the estate. At that point the estate can decide what to do with it. If there is more than one heir, it spreads the responsibility and the guilt if you force a sale.

    It is crucial to get your OWN (not the estates) lawyer. My wife’s mother (1 of 9) still going through grandmas FL probate six years later. While we are not involved, the acrimony within the family circle of aunts and uncles is very impressive. I have a friend who works in a high end probate lawyers office in NY. She says that once you introduce money or assets into the grief process, it gets ugly. Things are said at this point that can cause rifts for years.

    It sounds like your are keeping a level head here. While you are coping with your loss, your are balancing doing the right thing with protecting yourself from having to pay for FIL’s and grandmas decisions.

  70. still_looking says:

    John, 43 wrote:

    “There are dark spots on some souls that no amount of light can illuminate, and sometimes the only consolation in the wake of such human ugliness is my inability to understand it.”

    I don’t need newspapers or TV, I see it at work every day.

    Now you know why I have taken up drinking.

    sl

  71. 3b says:

    #43 John: There are dark spots on some souls that no amount of light can illuminate, and sometimes the only consolation in the wake of such human ugliness is my inability to understand it.

    Well said.

  72. still_looking says:

    # chicagofinance Says:
    December 4th, 2008 at 8:51 am

    lost: be careful with lawyers…consistently the bills just are mind numbing to people….and they will charge you for every conversation / every paper clip….make sure you know for a fact when the stopwatch is turned on….there are many lawyers that take a presumptive approach / bill first (egregiously) and see if you will pay….

    Hear, Hear! Listen to him. He is right!

    Remember that FUCK of a lawyer who billed my sister and me close to 6K for 5 phone calls of wasted time?

    They reduced it, then finally wrote off the bill.

    It was a good lesson learned even if stress, near ulcer, aggravation and misery was the cost — it was costly enough.

    Listen to him, unless you are looking for scorched earth retribution, do yourself a favor and stay away from lawyers.

    sl

  73. still_looking says:

    grim,

    73 in mod. (I think its 73)

  74. lostinny says:

    70 PGC
    Thanks for the advice. DH is the executor. Unfortunately, he cannot handle that responsibility from here. We know his father wanted us to move there, but this is not the way we were thinking it should be. We don’t want to put any of this on the brother if we don’t have to, so forcing the estate to accept some financial responsibility is unfair to him as well.
    Regardless, we’re hoping grandma just takes back the house and does what she wishes. If she keeps us on the hook, that’s when the fight will begin I suppose.

  75. SG says:

    AT&T to eliminate 12,000 jobs

    WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — AT&T Inc. on Thursday said it would cut 12,000 jobs, or 4% of its workforce, and spend less on new equipment in 2009 in response to a weakening economy.

    So in NJ, you have Finance & Telecom both in downturn. Pharma is probably last man standing.

  76. 2010 Buyer says:

    Treasury Weighs Action on Mortgage Rates

    Treasury would offer to buy securities that finance newly issued loans for home purchases. Lenders would have to set exceptionally low interest rates, for instance, no more than 4.5% for traditional, 30-year mortgages.

    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28045659/

  77. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    Initial jobless claims fall to 1-month low of 509,000

    Initial jobless claims fell to a one-month low but a less volatile average rose to its highest level in sixteen years, Labor Department data released Thursday showed.

    The number of workers filing for state unemployment benefits fell by 21,000 to a seasonally adjusted 509,000 for the week ending Nov. 29, the Labor Department reported Thursday.

    The four-week moving average of new claims – which smoothes out distortions caused by one-time events such as holidays and weather – rose by 6,250 to 524,500, the highest in sixteen years.

    This is an indication that jobs are becoming harder to find.

    Also on the darker side of the data, the number of people continuing to collect unemployment benefits rose by 89,000 in the week ending Nov. 22 to a seasonally adjusted 4.09 million, also the most in sixteen years. The four-week average of continuing claims rose to 4.0 million, the most since 1983.

    The message here is that Americans who have been laid off from their jobs are finding it harder to get work again.

  78. grim says:

    Treasury would offer to buy securities that finance newly issued loans for home purchases.

    So they won’t be purchasing HE pools (home equity/refinance)?

  79. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    DuPont cuts view, plans major workforce reduction

    DuPont Co. slashed its fourth-quarter earnings forecast on Thursday and announced plans to dismiss 6,500 employees, including contractors, due to the downturn in the construction market and a sharp drop off in consumer spending.

  80. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    Viacom to lay off 850, or 7% of work force

    Viacom Inc. on Thursday said it would book a charge of $400 million to $450 million, or 42-48 cents a share, in its fourth quarter as it lays off about 850 employees or 7% of its work force. The New York-based media company said it’s suspending senior management salary increases in 2009.

  81. grim says:

    From the Star Ledger:

    AT&T says it will eliminate 12,000 jobs

    AT&T today said it planned to cut 12,000 jobs, or approximately 4 percent of its work force, as the company faces stepped-up competition and a decline in consumer spending.

    It was unclear what impact the cuts will have on New Jersey, where Dallas-based AT&T still maintains a network operating center in Bedminster and facilities in other parts of the state.

  82. grim says:

    Bloomberg reporting 22,000 job cut announcements this morning.

  83. #75 – SG – From what I understand AT&T has already closed a lot of the operations it had in NJ. I’m sure we’ll still see losses here from the layoffs, I’d expect most of the 12k to be from SBC. If someone knows better please correct me.
    There was a point in the mid 80’s when it seemed like 1/4 of everyone in Jersey worked for AT&T. Those days are long gone though.

  84. grim says:

    sl,

    I don’t see anything in mod. Black hole?

  85. Stu says:

    My opinion of the 4.5% mortgages is that it misses 3 key issues.

    1) 1st time home buyers don’t have the downpayment.

    2) People close to defaulting don’t have the prerequisite credit score.

    3) Noone is going to purchase the 3% interest bonds offered to finance this stupid idea.

    False floors = continued delay of the recovery.

    The sooner the sh*t hits the fan (such as in CA, AZ, FL), the sooner buyers will come and restart the whole lending industry to free up credit. Meanwhile, all of these delays are royally screwing the economy as companies can only reduce their debt to meet bank covenants through layoffs as lack of credit has suspended consumption.

  86. grim says:

    Anyone know how many AT&T employees are left in NJ? I’ve got some older data saying 24,000, but dated from 2000. I’ve got another bit from around 2002 which states 20k.

  87. Stu says:

    Black Friday, more like red November…

    Retailers’ November same-store sales results have been rather paltry, with few exceptions. Target (TGT) reported comparable sales dropped 10.4%. Macy’s (M) reported a 13.3% drop in comparables. Nordstrom (JWN) saw same-store sales slide 15.9%. Kohl’s (KSS) reported a 17.5% slump in comparables. JC Penney (JCP) posted a drop of 11.9% in same-store sales. TJX Companies (TJX) reported a 12.0% drop in same-store sales. Meanwhile, BJ’s Wholesale (BJ) saw same-store sales increase 6.2%. Wal-Mart (WMT) reported a 3.4% increase in comparables.

  88. #86 – Grim – Good question.
    NJinsider says 20k , but looks to be circa 2k3 data.
    Careerinfonet doesn’t even show them in the top 50 for 2k7.
    To be honest, neither sounds accurate

  89. Al says:

    SG Says:
    December 4th, 2008 at 9:19 am
    AT&T to eliminate 12,000 jobs

    WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — AT&T Inc. on Thursday said it would cut 12,000 jobs, or 4% of its workforce, and spend less on new equipment in 2009 in response to a weakening economy.

    So in NJ, you have Finance & Telecom both in downturn. Pharma is probably last man standing.

    I hope you were sarcastic about pharma….

    You can not be serious.

  90. JBJB says:

    Grim

    I drive by the AT$T R&D site in Middletown reguarly. It’s a huge site that appears to be about 20-25% occupied. Mayber around 400-800 employees? Just a guess of course. Not sure about the rest of NJ.

  91. Victorian says:

    Another sad day for my poor shorts.

  92. still_looking says:

    grim, 84, yah… black hole

    just as well…. very black post.

    in a nutshell:

    Lost, listen to chifi. When a lawyer is sniffing around an estate, they are sniffing to see what part they can chew off/pee on and claim as theirs.

    Sorry lawyer-type folks on here. I had my fill [Clot can attest to that — he heard a pile of it] of those scumbags lawyers.

    Would be glad to fill in details at a GTG. I think alia had some stories to tell, too.

    You will have them as well. Take my word for it.

    If that was me, I’d donate my half to a nice charity, take the write off.

    DISCLAIMER:

    I’m a miserable F**CK, who wishes I was the school janitor and who channels the thoughts of rabid animals. So don’t listen to me.

    sl

  93. Hmm my comment @ 88 in in moderation.

  94. lostinny says:

    91 SL
    Thank you for the info. I’d love to hear those details. Trust me, there is nothing to fight over. If there was, it might be a fight worth fighting. There is nothing for a lawyer to stake a claim in. I don’t get people who fight over nothing. I really just don’t.

  95. Victorian says:

    April SRS 420 calls are going at 14.90. Insane!!!

  96. Cindy says:

    http://www.portfolio.com/news-markets/top-5/2008/12/04/treasurys-housing-plan

    A positive spin on the Treasury idea..of course, the idea being that the folks have the down payment, qualify for the loans and have an on-going revenue stream…

    I think the idea is to not include refis.

  97. BC Bob says:

    “False floors = continued delay of the recovery.”

    Stu,

    They forgot, below the floor is a basement, below that subterranean parking. Old floors become new ceilings.

  98. BC Bob says:

    lost,

    Sorry to hear. Can’t keep up with the sequence.

  99. Al says:

    Pharma – last man standing:

    WARN announced layoffs so far in 2008 NJ – remember it is just 2008!!!
    TEVA PHARMACEUTICALS NORTHVALE 4/25/08 155
    BRADLEY PHARM. FAIRFIELD 4/30/08 196
    RELIANT PHARMACEUTICALS 3/31/08 159
    ORTHO BIOTECH BRIDGEWATER 9/1/08 260
    ORTHO BIOTECH BRIDGEWATER 8/1/08 289
    SCHERING-PLOUGH STATEWIDE 8/11/08 500
    ABBOTT LABORATORIESPARSIPPANY 8/29/08 83
    PHARMACOPEIA CRANBURY 10/3/08 64
    ABBOTT LABORATORIE SWHIPPANY 10/11/08 125
    GE HEALTHCARE SOMERSET 11/30/08 40

    Total – 1871!!!

    IN addition:
    After eight decades in New Jersey, the drugmaker Hoffmann-La Roche is changing its name and moving its headquarters to California, the latest blow to the Garden State’s reputation as “the nation’s medicine chest.”
    The moves, part of parent company Roche’s proposed $44 billion takeover of the California biotechnology firm Genentech, will result in the U.S. subsidiary assuming the Genentech brand name, and will mean big changes for the company’s 3,240 workers in New Jersey.

    Announced in august. Merk have being quietly laying people off in NJ for years (via lay-offs or not replenishing retired people)

    Not can someone dig data on Pharma companies creating of jobs in 2008 in NJ??? Via creation of new company or new facility?

  100. Stu says:

    Victorian:

    Hang in there! Remember the predicted range in the DJIA. We are not even midway in the channel.

  101. 2010 Buyer says:

    Grim 78

    It doesn’t mention refis but I doubt most will be able to qualify with the tighten guidelines. Although for someone with excellent credit that may induce me to look at some properties.

    Bad Credit On the Rise: 110M Americans Now Affected

    http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Bad-Credit-Rise-110-Million/story.aspx?guid=%7BF0BF70AE-C5BA-4C8E-BC39-C247A6FDB46B%7D

  102. yikes says:

    Chi-Fi … just passed along fund name to Grim.

    AT&T today said it planned to cut 12,000 jobs, or approximately 4 percent of its work force, as the company faces stepped-up competition and a decline in consumer spending.

    That’s the one i mentioned last month. Friend in Chicago got “reorganized” and come early Jan, she’ll have to seek other employment.

  103. still_looking says:

    lost: 93 I don’t get people who fight over nothing. I really just don’t.

    My mother’s assets are at most 600K – my sociopath sister had already stolen her jewelry [some of which my sociopath mother had stolen from the rest of us over the years] so I’ve excluded that.

    So, it’s not really nothing. My mother will need it but my depraved, sociopath sister is determined to steal it.

    My other 2 sisters and I have walked away from it and look forward to lighting yahrtzeit> candles for them — I consider them both dead.

    I consider myself lucky to be rid of them and their toxic waste.

    The silver lining in this is that the three of us remaining are closer than ever and have managed to reconcile the shit we been through.

    sl

  104. still_looking says:

    srs worthwhile at 110?

    just wondering.

    sl

  105. chicagofinance says:

    lostinny Says:
    December 4th, 2008 at 10:06 am
    91 SL nothing for a lawyer to stake a claim in. I don’t get people who fight over nothing. I really just don’t.

    lost: Are you aware that the Dilbert comic strip is written by an employee of PacBell/SBC now AT&T? The nonsense written is stuff that really happens. If you want a window inside companies such as AT&T or any of the large pharmas in NJ, read Dilbert. Fight over nothing? Absolutely. It is really mind boggling….

  106. chicagofinance says:

    yikes Says:
    December 4th, 2008 at 10:23 am
    Chi-Fi … That’s the one i mentioned last month. Friend in Chicago got “reorganized” and come early Jan, she’ll have to seek other employment.

    Old Ameritech?

  107. zieba says:

    Anyone looking for a bounce on FAZ?

    I see many are just waiting to pounce.

  108. JBJB says:

    Cindy

    I think that portfolio article misses the point as well. As a person w/ a down payment, excellent credit, and a steady revenue stream, dropping rates a percentage point is meaningless to me. Especially if the outcome is an extension of unsustainable high home prices. The plan is essentially goading you to risk your down payment in a depreciating asset in exchange for a 300$/month savings. In addition, any savings from a lower rate will likely be offset by an increase in property taxes (especially in NJ). This plan is a dud from the start, and there is really no way to rationalize it as being beneficial to anyone except for those who would like to see property values artifically high.

  109. lostinny says:

    97 BC
    Thanks. Too much to worry about.

  110. chicagofinance says:

    yikes Says:
    December 4th, 2008 at 10:23 am
    Chi-Fi … just passed along fund name to Grim.

    Note: The muni experts here are John and I think 3b?

    Is that right guys?

  111. lostinny says:

    102 SL
    I’m sorry that you dealt with all that. I was referring to my fil who had nothing which I why I don’t understand the other family members willing to fight over nothing.

  112. lostinny says:

    104 Chifi
    I had no idea. I really just think its so sad.

  113. Cindy says:

    (107) JBJB – agreed – The prices must come down. I still think they will. There are fewer and fewer viable buyers. If they create a program that truly meets the needs of those viable buyers all the better for you.

    The folks who want to sell have to deal with a smaller and smaller group of people as more lose their jobs. It should be interesting…

    Off to work – Have an awesome day!

  114. implosion08 says:

    Victorian or Clotpoll (or anyone else smarter than me)-

    Would it be the dumbest idea ever to write covered calls against SRS right now? You can get 10 pts of upside and still get about 26% downside protection. And it is near the bottom of its trading range.

    I am having a hard time believing that going long SRS at this level could be a loser if you have the staying power to ride out the volatility but am looking at a little less exciting option. . .

  115. Clotpoll says:

    3b (62)-

    Another persistent question of mine:

    How do you refinance negative equity?

  116. still_looking says:

    nevermind 103 — I forgot… market doesn’t open til 3:45 pm. D’oh.

    sl

  117. Clotpoll says:

    Most of the incoming in our office since rates dropped are refi inquiries.

    75% of these people can’t be helped. Busted credit, insufficient equity…or both.

    Scooped up some more SRS @ $111 just now. Anybody who thinks RE is coming off the mat because of some cockamamie mortgage rate manipulation by Klink & co deserves the poleaxing that is most assuredly coming.

  118. Clotpoll says:

    116 moderated. Bad word embedded in innocuous word.

  119. 3b says:

    #107 JBJB: there is really no way to rationalize it as being beneficial to anyone except for those who would like to see property values artifically high.

    And it will not keep those property values high, in fact one could argue just the reverse, as it shows how desperate they are in their attempt to keep prices high.

  120. chicagofinance says:

    implosion08 Says:
    December 4th, 2008 at 10:40 am
    Victorian or Clotpoll (or anyone else smarter than me)-

    Would it be the dumbest idea ever to write covered calls against SRS right now? You can get 10 pts of upside and still get about 26% downside protection. And it is near the bottom of its trading range.

    I am having a hard time believing that going long SRS at this level could be a loser if you have the staying power to ride out the volatility but am looking at a little less exciting option. . .

    dude: WTF? Are you dealing with penis envy or something?

  121. Clotpoll says:

    vic (94)-

    The options action on SRS is off the hook.

  122. Clotpoll says:

    sl (103)-

    Whenever I have a shaky feeling about SRS, I refer to this list:

    http://us.ishares.com/product_info/fund/holdings/IYR.htm

  123. Al says:

    Just for the sacke of interest I looked up some Other country’s housing markets:

    http://www.realtor.com/search/listingdetail.aspx?srcnt=7915&sid=bbc4d05c710e435c82a955750ae8f6a1&fhcnt=112&loc=denver%2c+CO&pg=792&fhpg=8&lid=1104964927&lsn=7911

    Look at this – this is close to highways, in a fairly safe neighbourhood.
    (103/month mortgage if you even want a mortgage, ~800/year taxes, Big unknown is HOA – I think about 100/month??), rents in the area were 400-500 for 1/1 7000sqft 4 years ago…….

    I think if I do not buy next year I might go to denver to vidit my friends and scope some rentals – I can buy it with cash and I would not even notice taxes….

    Please show me something similar in the east cost – barrier to have rental properties is soo much higher here…

  124. Clotpoll says:

    implode (113)-

    My take on covered calls is that they are best employed when you think the big moves are made and you’re just trying to nibble on the remainder.

    I think it’s safe to say big moves in SRS are far from being done, so why not just set some stops to the downside and let things play out?

    Stops are free, and if you think SRS is basing, why cut yourself out of what could be explosive upside?

    All disclaimers. I am betting on Armageddon and exercising a natural hedge against my primary business activities. That probably isn’t your position.

  125. Clotpoll says:

    Al (121)-

    Maybe you can buy two of those and turn one into a meth lab.

  126. kettle1 says:

    SL

    If we are demonstrating the inherent good in people….

    My great uncle (grandmothers brother)convinced her that her son was trying to steal all of her money. She is in earl stage dementia and highly suggestible. He then proceeded to play the stock market with it and i would assume he has been wiped out at this point. Oh he did suddenly have 2 very nice new cars.

    After consulting various attorneys, the only real solution was that we take him to court after she dies……

    The day she needs assisted living 9 should already be there) she is hosed.

  127. Al says:

    Clotpoll Says:
    December 4th, 2008 at 11:06 am
    Al (121)-

    Maybe you can buy two of those and turn one into a meth lab.

    Not meth lab!!! In Denver people use Natural staff – EVERYBODY have their “own” P0t dealer there. And people routinelly would brag about their dealer bringing the GOOD staff…

    Makes general population relaxed and happy.

  128. Frank says:

    “No Surprise, New York Is in Recession”

    Ohh great maybe I can finally get a seat on the train. How about lunch in less then an hour?

  129. Rich In NNJ says:

    SL,

    71 Now you know why I have taken up drinking.

    It’s about time!

    102 Yahrzeit Candles: Thanks! I just learned something new today. Now if I only knew how to pronounce it.

    PGC (Yesterday),

    You have my curiosity peaked… what kind of piece did you “score” yesterday and more importantly, do you think you’ll be able to refinish on time for Christmas?
    PS I’ve moved practically around the corner from you.

  130. Rich In NNJ says:

    Yes Frank, it’s all about you…

  131. JBJB says:

    3b

    Right. I should have written it would only be beneficial for those who “hope” see property values high in the “short term”.

    Good realtor anecdote. A nice lady at my son’s daycare in Middletown who shuttles kids back and forth told me last night she was also a part time realtor. She is of course hoping to start working at the day care full time due the current housing situation. She said transaction volume had slowed to a crawl. She said there are still a ton of recalcitrant sellers who will not budge on pricing and believe the market will turn soon. She believed there were ample buyers but all were seeking deep discounts. Trading up is dead. She said most deals involve qualified buyers with nothing to sell and sellers with substantial equity. Her advise (for a buyer) was to find a seller w/ strong equity in a house that needs some cosmetic updating and lowball the hell out of it.

  132. Clotpoll says:

    Bergabe speaking now. Let’s see how far down he can drive the indices.

  133. implosion08 says:

    Thanks Clot – Probably sound advice.

    I am considering trying to create cash flow into an IRA where the premium is not taxed immediately. I’ve done it with some success. Probably not best done with the high upside play SRS and probably not best done now given my belief that we have not come near the eventual lows (S&P 600-650). But work is slow and that is when I get myself into trouble.

    I’m not mocking your Armageddon view at all. I’m not quite there but I can’t believe that people think a moment of pain and then we are back to the false economy that was their normalcy. That economy was based on lending $ to people who couldn’t pay it back so they could spend it. And extreme leverage all around. Can we reinflate that? At what cost? And the fact that people who have no clue how to solve this are throwing everything at the wall does not leave me optimistic in any way. Looking at a gold entry at some point.

    All disclaimers

    Thanks for all the intelligence here, I lurk and rarely post but it is good to see that people think they way I do.

  134. njrebear says:

    “How about lunch in less then an hour?”

    Tough luck. Lines at soup kitchens are growing.

  135. 3b says:

    #128 JBJB Her advise (for a buyer) was to find a seller w/ strong equity in a house that needs some cosmetic updating and lowball the hell out of it.

    That is exactly what I plan to do.

    The more the powers that be try and jerk houisng prices, the more aggressive my bids will be.

    All the sellers can do is say no.

  136. still_looking says:

    Ket, 123

    You are exactly describing my recent situation. My sister did exactly that with my mother.

    My mother’s previous revocable trust and medical proxy specifically excluded that/b> sister as my mother KNEW she was a sociopath (with bipolar disorder as the bonus prize.)

    My mother had been deemed incompetent for YEARS. Had been committed numerous times for her own psychiatric disease.

    Sociopath Sis drags her to a paid-off shrink who deems her competent then to estate attorney who rewrites all of mom’s shit.

    Me? I couldn’t give a shit less. They both deserve whatever scathing relentless misery that fate brings them.

    The money? I can make whatever inheritance money I might have gotten doing any one of the the 3 things I do to make money – easily, in my sleep and nearly without thought.

    F**CK the money.

    I tell my other 2 (relatively normal) sisters: What goes around, comes around and usually with a f*cking shitload of extra momentum.

    Sociopath Sis will one day be schooled in the term Schadenfreude.

    Meanwhile, life goes on.

    sl

  137. PGC says:

    #126 Rich

    It was a 2 drawer silverchest with legs for $15.
    Congrats on the move, we will have to have a mini GTG some night. You can check out progress on the REO.

  138. Al says:

    But seriouskly Clot – I know real; estate agents do not like to see 20,000 condos – what is 6% on thouse – 1200$??? Split in half – 600$??? would you even bother with this listing?

    But it is funny to me to see 20K prices making it back in Denver/Aurora area – when I just started my school they were 20K (in 1999), by 2005 they were 120-160K, and now they are back down to 20K…

  139. still_looking says:

    # still_looking Says: Your comment is awaiting moderation.
    December 4th, 2008 at 11:22 am

    Ket, 123

    You are exactly describing my recent situation. My sister did exactly that with my mother.

    My mother’s previous revocable trust and medical proxy specifically excluded that sister as my mother KNEW she was a sociopath (with bipolar disorder as the bonus prize.)

    My mother had been deemed incompetent for YEARS. Had been committed numerous times for her own psychiatric disease.

    Sociopath Sis drags her to a paid-off shrink who deems her competent then to an estate attorney who rewrites all of mom’s shit. Makes Sociopath Sis medical proxy and POA…

    Nice, eh? Put the person in charge of (getting) your money also in charge of your life!

    Me? I couldn’t give a shit less. They both deserve whatever scathing relentless misery that fate brings them.

    The money? I can make whatever inheritance money I might have gotten doing any one of the the 3 things I do to make money – easily, in my sleep and nearly without thought.

    F**CK the money.

    I tell my other 2 (relatively normal) sisters: What goes around, comes around and usually with a f**cking shitload of extra momentum.

    Sociopath Sis will one day be schooled in the term Schadenfreude.

    Meanwhile, life goes on.

    sl

  140. still_looking says:

    Grim can you unmod 136 and kill 133?

    Thanks… sorry for the venom-before-noon. :)

    sl

  141. Nurburgringer says:

    not a short watch at 47minutes, but very eye-opening explanation of money creation/debt:

    “Money as Debt”

    http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-9050474362583451279

  142. Clotpoll says:

    Al (135)-

    Would I bother with that listing? Hell, yeah.

    The seller is somebody who’d probably be looking to do more business with me in the future…even if it’s a bank, selling its REO through me. If I drew the eventual buyer, that could be someone who could do 3-4 more lifetime transactions with me…plus refer family and friends if I do a good job.

    I built my whole business on treating entry-level clients like gold. That’s why in times like this, I can keep going on referrals from all those old clients, plus REO and short sale work.

  143. BC Bob says:

    “I am considering trying to create cash flow into an IRA where the premium is not taxed immediately.”

    [130],

    Maybe option spreads for this strategy?

  144. Frank says:

    “Yes Frank, it’s all about you…”

    no it’s also about the other 50 people that can’t find a seat on a bus and the other 20 people on line to get lunch.

  145. chicagofinance says:

    BC Bob Says:
    December 4th, 2008 at 11:34 am
    “I am considering trying to create cash flow into an IRA where the premium is not taxed immediately.”
    [130], Maybe option spreads for this strategy?

    Bost: a good number of brokers will limit writing ability on unhedged positions in an IRA due to the potential difficulty of posting additional capital to the account

  146. Victorian says:

    Gurus-
    Any recommendations for books on Trading Strategies?

  147. Clotpoll says:

    Bergabe like the idea of gap insurance for housing.

  148. 3b says:

    #139 frank: You have a beautiful mind.

  149. NJCoast says:

    121 Clot

    Don’t brokerage firms, and market makers have a field trading off stops that are booked for all of them to see.

  150. BC Bob says:

    chi [140],

    A bull call spread or a bear put spread, you are reducing the cost of the trade, plus you are hedged. Then again, you are limiting your upside. However, his strategy was to pull in income.

  151. NJCoast says:

    field day that is

  152. BC Bob says:

    NJC [144],

    Gravy train, especially around the release of reports.

  153. Stu says:

    Looking at the recent trends in the markets and the overall economy, it appears that there is a growing disconnect between the two. Either the markets had overshot (most likely due to panic) when they bottomed in the mid 7s on the Dow about a month back, or the market is predicting a recovery in the next 6 to 9 months driven by the massive government intervention. There are many new circumstances that make equity buy decisions much more difficult than in the traditional bull market. Huge hedge fund redemptions, massive flight out of 401Ks, the destruction of credit and of course the government’s continued meddling in free markets. Add to this the recent removal of important economic reports mostly around the measuring of inflation and money supply. From a macro standpoint, I don’t think there has ever been a more difficult time to gauge the future direction of the markets (in my lifetime) than now.

    I don’t subscribe to a lot of the Warren Buffetisms, but the one thing that I think works the best in this kind of environment is to look for a trend and get ahead of the herd on it. Regardless of how disconnected some share prices are to the balance sheets, (P/Es and PEGs are in such disarray that they are useless as a measurement tool right now) eventually this meddling madness will stop and valuations will normalize.

    So when someone on this blog asks if 110 is a good price to buy SRS…the question you need to ask yourself is if you think that commercial real estate is valued appropriately based on what you expect in the near future. And you can’t just go with a hunch. You need to find some measurable data and due to these ultra funds, you need to ignore the stock charts since the added volatility will throw you off. Those playing the triple leveraged funds…don’t ignore the counter party risk and as ChiFi implies, understand options trading and how they affect these products.

    I fear that way too many people are simply gambling based on a roller coaster stock chart and in a triple leveraged fund to boot. Might as well throw your money into the fireplace (or into a car manufacturer for that matter).

    I think Clotpoll’s revelation that he is hedging his real estate career with SRS makes a ton of sense. I acted similarly a few years ago to hedge increasing energy prices by investing in the drillers. But to simply jump into an SRS because it was recently at 300 is the wrong reason. It could just as well go down to 30 from here!

    I guess all I’m saying is that wealth may be dramatically important over the next few years. Don’t blow it all on a tip you received on Grim’s blog. Do the research yourself. After all, the primary reason people post their investment decisions here is to look for a second opinion. That is not terribly reassuring is it?

  154. Stu says:

    Bost: a good number of brokers will limit writing ability on unhedged positions in an IRA due to the potential difficulty of posting additional capital to the account.

    Exactly!

    NJC (144): Stops are for suckers!!! Be confident in your research and purchasing decision and then stop losses will not be part of your investing vocabulary. Otherwise, you are just giving it away. Especially with today’s volatility. All of this TA is driving me crazy. If computers can not make money off of chart patterns, then how do you expect people to?

  155. Clotpoll says:

    Stu (148)-

    I’d go as far as to say that 2x and 3x ETF plays are really momentum trades, more than vehicles an investor should jump into after careful sector analysis. The underlying derivatives activity and counterparty risk inherent in these ETFs adds too much noise to whatever data one might gather through traditional analysis.

  156. Clotpoll says:

    These three douchebags ain’t gonna get the money. Anything they get their paws on is as good as gone.

    Just my gut.

  157. implosion08 says:

    Thanks Stu – I did not come on this from this blog and am not playing with funds I can’t afford to lose. Mostly cash since 2006. But I am not going to do discounted cash flow models on these companies, I feel more like Clot. And from all I see, hear, and experience I am very bearish on CRE. Staying the heck away from SKF, EEV, etc because those scare me way more and I don’t have a handle on the impact of the gov’t actions and currency issues.

    And I wasn’t asking anyone’s opinion on the price, it was more the covered call strategy. Haven’t heard of anyone trying it with such volatile stuff.

    Good luck to everyone

  158. Stu says:

    Clot (150):

    “I’d go as far as to say that 2x and 3x ETF plays are really momentum trades, more than vehicles an investor should jump into after careful sector analysis.”

    It depends on how you use them. I had to wait almost 12 months to see the eventual pop in my initial SRS purchase. Outside of this ETF, I would have been forced to short particular reits, reducing my diversification and opening myself up to margin calls. These ETFs have the same issues that index funds have. As companies implode, they are replaced by newer (supposedly) healthier ones. That is the downside. Over a longer time period though, both provide a pretty good method of diversification and if the trend you are seeking to invest in is correct, you will still do quite well.

  159. reinvestor101 says:

    3corncob,

    Where does all this venom directed towards me come from? I didn’t even mention your name in my post. I merely posted some information about those commies in China being tighter than a damn dixie hatband and you jump up in symphathy yelling about your lack toilet paper and corncobs. Please.

    Look, this topic has been exhausted and everyone and his mother is well aware of you and John’s “veggie” fetishes and I, for one, no longer wish to hear about them. This behavior is outrageous. Have either of you heard about the policy of “don’t ask, don’t tell”?

    3b Says:
    December 4th, 2008 at 8:56 am
    #30 re@ssvise: Listen Dude it is getting old with the toilet paper thing, but I guess it helps you deal with your @ss obsession.

    Let us look at the facts, you have introduced us to corncobs, and how you utilize them. Yesterday and for the past few weeks, you have been telling us how your @ss is in a vise, over and over again you have discussed your @ss and a vise.

    So now we have been introduced to yet another aspect of you fixation with a particular part of the body.

    Please you should seek professioal help. Do it for your spouse.

  160. Stu says:

    Of course, I won’t discount them as good momentum plays as well. I just can’t get away from fundamentals. It’s what I know and it works well enough for me and reduces my risk. I’m not sure how one really reduces risk through TA except to be an expert at it, and quite honestly, I never saw anyone succeed at it in the long term.

  161. John says:

    Interesting stuff, just came from a meeting where we talked about new trading systems with insane low latency, 1-2 milisecond quoting capability, the more interesting thing was the concept of coupling electrons so we can throw away the speed of light limitations on trade execution and move towards instantaneous. I hate the damm speed of light, who wants to move that slow.

  162. still_looking says:

    Stu,
    I under
    stand what you are saying. I agree with trend. As far as being able to research all of the areas that you can on a stock – good luck.

    I don’t invest wholly on tips. I want nothing to do with options. The majority of my portfolio is long and in 2 seconds or 24 hrs or a year the game get changed.

    Blow it all? Never. I’d never bet it all.. not even 10% of what I could.

    I do look for second opinions, keep close stops and limits on my short term stuff and know that, quite frankly, this is pure gambling.

    You can’t research behind-the-door deals, government intervention, cooked books and insider moves.

    Trend is just about the only helpful thing to a degree. All the trend I see lately is Downward Spiral with the Occasional Uptick.

    My anectdata is seeing patient after patient who has 1) lost their job 2) is about to lose their job 3) is behind on their mortgage 4) is asking about charity care and a social worker consult.

    sl

  163. yikes says:

    where’s that clown on here who always says, ‘WHAT RECESSION?’

    http://www.kottke.org/08/12/flatscreen-madness-and-other-costco-adventures

  164. #157 – new trading systems with insane low latency, 1-2 milisecond quoting capability

    Wombat on infiniband. Not that new but still fast.

  165. Ben says:

    “no it’s also about the other 50 people that can’t find a seat on a bus and the other 20 people on line to get lunch.”

    The line would be smaller if the place you were eating at didn’t fire half it’s staff.

  166. 20 people on line to get lunch

    That dollar menu is really paying off for McDs.

  167. Clotpoll says:

    sl (158)-

    Your anecdata and my anecdata trump the charts.

    We’re knee-deep in the stuff that demonstrates how bad things really are.

    The only thing that amazes me is seeing daily evidence of how much worse it’s going to get.

  168. John says:

    Hey being on the wrong end of a glory hole makes for one twisted mofo, but hey thats cool.

    reinvestor101 Says:
    December 4th, 2008 at 12:14 pm
    3corncob,

    Where does all this venom directed towards me come from? I didn’t even mention your name in my post. I merely posted some information about those commies in China being tighter than a damn dixie hatband and you jump up in symphathy yelling about your lack toilet paper and corncobs. Please.

    Look, this topic has been exhausted and everyone and his mother is well aware of you and John’s “veggie” fetishes and I, for one, no longer wish to hear about them. This behavior is outrageous. Have either of you heard about the policy of “don’t ask, don’t tell”?

  169. chicagofinance says:

    BC Bob Says:
    December 4th, 2008 at 11:54 am
    chi [140], A bull call spread or a bear put spread, you are reducing the cost of the trade, plus you are hedged. Then again, you are limiting your upside. However, his strategy was to pull in income.

    Bost: That is not the point. Theoretically what you are saying makes sense, but logisitcally and legally the brokers need to vet the actors knowledge, ability to dynamically hedge positions, and further assume that unwinding prongs of the position is not always concurrent.

    Ultimately, most duffers are using some plug-and-play set-up with the discount brokers. As a result, they basically will say to account owners FU. You really need pay up for a professional platform, and even then, most duffers learn just enough to hang themselves, or at worst, have a deficit in an IRA that could not be funded.

  170. BC Bob says:

    “I’m not sure how one really reduces risk through TA except to be an expert at it, and quite honestly, I never saw anyone succeed at it in the long term.”

    Stu,

    Paul Tudor Jones.

    “I see the younger generation hampered by the need to understand and rationalize why something should go up or down. Usually, by the time that becomes self-evident, the move is already over. When I got into the business, there was so little information on fundamentals, and what little information one could get was largely imperfect. We learned just to go with the chart. Why work when Mr. Market can do it for you? These days, there are many more deep intellectuals in the business, and that, coupled with the explosion of information on the Internet, creates the illusion that there is an explanation for everything and that the primary task is simply to find that explanation. As a result, technical analysis is at the bottom of the study list for many of the younger generation, particularly since the skill often requires them to close their eyes and trust the price action. The pain of gain is just too overwhelming for all of us to bear!”

    http://www.iimagazine.com/Article.aspx?ArticleID=1964189

  171. chicagofinance says:

    About TA on an ETF, or worse a levered ETF, or even worse a levered inverse ETF……at some point WTF is someone charting?

    …the value is derived from piece parts of something else, and worse with the levered stuff, it is strained through the sieve of option volatility and non-linear returns to the underlying.

    The G-ddamn thing is a f—ing morass
    ……you want to make money, great, but proposing anything related to this crap as some kind of income strategy is pure idiocy

    ….you want to make money by gambling? I have ABSOLUTE NO PROBLEM WITH IT. I do have a problem with providing some veil so that it appears that you are being shrewd. NO. It is gambling, go forth, and get your rocks off.

    PERIOD.

  172. Clotpoll says:

    Also, re: Paul Tudor Jones. Fair to note that two other funds of his are up on the year, but this is the flagship:

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122814890668569241.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

  173. Clotpoll says:

    Chi (67)-

    It’s all good, dude.

    Gambling = investment

    No problem. :)

  174. Stu says:

    ChiFi:

    Thank you!

    Clot, you call it gambling, but deep down inside I know it’s the fundamentals that you are playing. ;)

  175. Stu says:

    “CNBC Firing 80 Staffers Today”

    Please let it include Cramer! He should be in jail for misguiding so many.

  176. BC Bob says:

    Chi,

    Many are still holding financials at stratospheric levels. That’s what I call gambling. Better yet, brain dead.

  177. RayC says:

    UNION COUNTY SALES REPORT – AUG-OCT

    I have been looking in Mountainside and Westfield, I got the following sales info from Trulia’s recent sales. (Grim, if you wouldn’t mind sending me the sales for those towns, I would like to confirm the Trulia’s list. I am desperately trying to avoid work.)

    Mountainside SFH (39 currently listed)
    MONTH AVG SP #sales
    Aug 664k 12
    Sep 621K 8
    Oct 564K 6

    Westfield SFH (144 currently listed)
    MONTH AVG SP #sales
    Aug 820k 41
    Sep 879k 35
    Oct 578K 25

    In Westfield in there were 10 SFHs that sold for over a million dollars in August, and 10 in September. In October, there was 1 – and the average sale price dropped $300k.

    Its not like they ran out of expensive homes – there are currently 48 for sale in Westfield for more than a million.

  178. grim says:

    So much for the Black Friday blowout.

    From Bloomberg:

    Retailers’ U.S. Sales Tumble in Worst Month in Four Decades

    Sales at U.S. retailers tumbled in November, the worst monthly performance in almost four decades, after the Wall Street meltdown caused consumers to postpone shopping until the Black Friday holiday-sales kickoff.

    J.C. Penney Co., Nordstrom Inc. and Gap Inc. all reported sales drops of 10 percent or more at stores open at least a year. The decreases were less than some analysts estimated after 50 percent-off discounts on clothing lured customers grappling with the U.S. recession. Wal-Mart Stores Inc. posted a 3.4 percent gain.

    Declines in consumer spending in October persisted into the first part of November before rebounding on Black Friday, the unofficial start to the holiday-shopping season. Macy’s Inc. lowered prices by half on some coats, while Gap offered sweaters in a two-for-one promotion. The markdowns may hurt retailers during a period when they make a third or more of their annual profit.

    “The promotions are pretty much across the board in retail, and some are the biggest you’ve seen in years, especially at the high end,” said David Abella, a portfolio manager at Rochdale Investment Management LLC in New York, with $2 billion in assets including Wal-Mart shares. “They will need to keep that up through December to draw traffic and sales, and that may erode margins.”

    November same-store sales fell 2.7 percent, the International Council of Shopping Centers said, based on a survey of 37 chains. That’s the worst since the ICSC began tracking data in 1969. The New York-based ICSC said purchases during the final two months of the year may fall as much as 1 percent, worse than its forecast of a 1 percent gain.

  179. grim says:

    where’s that clown on here who always says, ‘WHAT RECESSION?’

    Consumers aren’t buying cars or houses.

    They’ve got to spend that down payment money somehow (god knows they can’t save it), so why not buy a flat screen tv?

  180. Stu says:

    What downpayment money?

  181. Confused In NJ says:

    CNBC Firing 80 Staffers Today

    If each News Network fired 90% of their Staff, and made the remaining 10% act like serious jornalists, I’d watch News TV more. Hard to watch News Stations, which compete with Soap Operas and Comedy Central, then rush through the Weather.

  182. chicagofinance says:

    Includes about 4 minutes discussing the sequel to Moneyball…..

    Author Lewis Sees Total Overhaul of Financial Industry
    Nov. 24 (Bloomberg) — Bloomberg columnist and author Michael Lewis talks with Bloomberg’s Mike Schneider about his new book, “Panic: The Story of Modern Financial Insanity.”

    http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/Views/Night_Talk/vCZeWQGFgipg.mp3

  183. grim says:

    I work with a guy who is vehement about consumer spending increasing in the near term. Why? Because spending is a one way consumers can exhibit control over an environment that is slowly spinning out of control

    “As long as I can buy a new TV, there isn’t any recession for me. So I’ll spend, see, because I’m in control. As long as I behave as if things were just fine, they will be just fine.”

    “Sign here Mr. Sixpack”

  184. Sean says:

    Chi- haven’t you heard? Buy and Hold is dead.

  185. grim says:

    What downpayment money?

    Stu,

    I thought I threw out a pretty good hint about the size of the down payment when I said TV…

  186. RayC says:

    I think the only people who want to buy a house are the ones who want to use no downpayment. I have my downpayment, and with the unemployment #s what they are (and worse), I look at that money (lovingly) as 5 plus years of rent in case of trouble.

  187. BC Bob says:

    “where’s that clown on here who always says, ‘WHAT RECESSION?”

    I would imagine he’s desperately trying to stem the outflow of capital?

  188. 3b says:

    #154 re@ssvise: Please get help for your obsession and your denial, if not for you, than for your spouse.

  189. grim says:

    From the AP:

    Bernanke: more action needed to cut foreclosures

    Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke called on the government Thursday to ramp up efforts to stem soaring home foreclosures, which are feeding into the country’s deep economic troubles.

    Although a flurry of actions have been taken to ease the housing crisis, foreclosures still remain “too high” with adverse consequences for struggling homeowners, squeezed lenders and the broader economy, Bernanke said in remarks to a Fed conference here on housing finance.

    “More needs to be done,” he declared.

    Lenders appear to be on track to initiate 2.25 million foreclosures this year, up from an average annual pace of less than 1 million during the pre-crisis period, he said.

  190. John says:

    I am very doubtful about this recession, had to pick kid up at school this week and I overheard some 30 something housewifes saying they are cutting back on spending, they are asking for their usual teeth whiting, skin peels, invisalign etc. only instead of presents and cosmetic surgery, as they all strolled off into their 50K suvs with starbucks in one hand and cell phone in the other I thought this is the lamest recession I have ever seen.

  191. BC Bob says:

    “I am very doubtful about this recession”

    John,

    I agree. After all shoppers trampled a worker to death, just to spend $.

  192. 3b says:

    #191 John: They will learn soon enough.

  193. Clotpoll says:

    John (191)-

    Please recuse yourself, as you travel in a parallel universe.

  194. 3b says:

    #194 clot: i wonder if all those 30 something’s John speaks about have spouses who work on the “street”.

  195. Mikeinwaiting says:

    John 191 The standard of living for these people is very high,so it would seem like no recession. Take a stroll in the real world in a middle class neighborhood & it might seem somewhat more real. Old friend
    from mt grammar school days, husband out of work separation once a normal successful family now living on gov assistance, lost home. I was ready to take her & her 3 kids in if she couldn’t find a place. It is real ugly for people without deep pockets. Just give it time,you will see it in upper haughty-ville too.

  196. Victorian says:

    10-year yields 2.595%.
    30-year yields 3.112%.

    The bond market is wrong?

  197. John says:

    It is the biggest bubble since March 10 2000.

    Victorian Says:
    December 4th, 2008 at 1:36 pm
    10-year yields 2.595%.
    30-year yields 3.112%.

    The bond market is wrong?

  198. yikes says:

    jb – check ur email

  199. John says:

    Actually I live in a white trash blue collar neighborhood. They are all teachers, cops, firemen, nurses etc with lots of dual incomes.

    Mikeinwaiting Says:
    December 4th, 2008 at 1:35 pm
    John 191 The standard of living for these people is very high,so it would seem like no recession. Take a stroll in the real world in a middle class neighborhood & it might seem somewhat more real. Old friend
    from mt grammar school days, husband out of work separation once a normal successful family now living on gov assistance, lost home. I was ready to take her & her 3 kids in if she couldn’t find a place. It is real ugly for people without deep pockets. Just give it time,you will see it in upper haughty-ville too.

  200. scribe says:

    lostinny,

    Your DH (Dear Husband?) can repudiate his inheritance and also relinquish the role of executor.

    You might want to ask your lawyer what the process is.

  201. John says:

    He can also torch the joint.

  202. Sean says:

    TBT – for the bond bubble bust.

  203. BC Bob says:

    Rents falling in Manhattan. No recession? I guess these are not John’s neighbors.

    “Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) — Manhattan apartment rents fell for a fourth consecutive month in November and vacancy rates reached 2 percent for the first time since at least January 2007.”

    “Across all sizes of apartments, from studios to three bedrooms, rents fell 2.2 percent to 4.9 percent, with the biggest drop coming for the smallest apartments. Studios rented for an average of $1,808, down from $1,901 in October, New York- based real estate broker Citi Habitats said today in a report.”

    “Rents are declining as New York City is forecast to lose as many as 160,000 jobs in the recession and Wall Street firms including Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and Merrill Lynch & Co. are firing workers.”

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ad7usUyCk3aQ&refer=home

  204. John says:

    NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Crude-oil futures fell Thursday for a fifth straight session, trading at their lowest level in nearly four years amid ongoing worries that the economic slump will reduce energy demand.

    This is like the biggest stealth tax cut ever!!!

  205. John says:

    $1,800 a month for a two hundred square foot studio is hardly cheap.

  206. #206 – No it’s not, but the point is Manhattan rents are going down, and across the board too.

  207. Clotpoll says:

    I’m beginning to think that John is Larry Kudlow.

  208. Victorian says:

    “This is like the biggest stealth tax cut ever!!!”

    You forgot the mustard seeds being planted for the new bull market.

  209. BC Bob says:

    [207],

    Tosh,

    Exactly. The price trend is the key.

  210. yikes says:

    Why buy now at 5.5-6% when you can buy tomorrow at both a lower price and a lower rate?

    Sounds like a win-win argument for staying on the sidelines. If you gotta buy, you gotta buy. But don’t tell me you can’t wait a month or two to do it.

    well put.

  211. John says:

    By the time the Fed actually admits we are in a recession we are closer to the end of the recession since the begining. Let see one trillion stimulus package, huge savings on heating oil and gas, rock bottom rates to let you finance and finally coming soon tax credits for buying new american cars. I can see people jumping into a new GMC SUV with $1.50 gas, with a 4% home equity loan and a $5,000 tax credit to boot. God Bless America.

  212. Victorian says:

    Hey BC, did you check this out?

    Giants claim defunct firm Lehman Brothers owes team $300M

    “Big Blue claims the bankrupt investment behemoth owes the team $301.8 million from a complex financing deal for its new stadium in the Meadowlands.

    The battle centers on a high-risk financial contract – the kind that has contributed to America’s economic meltdown – between football’s reigning champs and Wall Street’s leading chumps. ”

    The flashpoint is the 82,500-seat, open-air new Meadowlands Stadium the Giants and Jets have been jointly building since 2007 on a 40-acre site across the Hudson.

    Complete with four restaurants, a Hall of Fame, 213 luxury suites, 2,000 video screens and a 300,000-square-foot outdoor plaza for tailgate parties, the stadium, expected to open in the spring of 2010, is budgeted at $1.6 billion.

    To fund it, the National Football League loaned the teams $150 million apiece in 2007. The Giants and Jets each snared $650 million bank financing deals, with the Giants buying 40-year bonds from a seemingly healthy Lehman Brothers.

    Interest on those bonds, paid out until 2047, could be punishing, and the Giants wanted to reduce borrowing costs.

    So they entered into a so-called interest rate swap with Lehman, “swapping” interest that could float much higher for fixed interest that would remain moderately priced, court filings indicate.

    http://www.nydailynews.com/money/2008/11/22/2008-11-22_giants_claim_defunct_firm_lehman_brother.html

  213. Ben says:

    “I am very doubtful about this recession, had to pick kid up at school this week and I overheard some 30 something housewifes saying they are cutting back on spending, they are asking for their usual teeth whiting, skin peels, invisalign etc. only instead of presents and cosmetic surgery, as they all strolled off into their 50K suvs with starbucks in one hand and cell phone in the other I thought this is the lamest recession I have ever seen.”

    That’s why you should be worried. We haven’t even scraped the tip of the iceberg.

  214. yikes says:

    People who are too cheap to buy something? People saving 80% of their income?

    sounds like me and my wife the last three years. our only big ticket items have been a few vacations.

    bought a used car and got one free from a relative; waiting for the 2009 TVs to go on the market and then bought a 2008 at a low price; i might have spent $1000 on clothes in the last three years combined.

    i’ll say this – it feels good to have money in your pocket and nothing to worry about.

  215. 3b says:

    #206 john: yeah people will save $40/$50 a month,and all will be well.

    You are going through your schzoid phase again.

  216. kettle1 says:

    John 161,

    You might want to brush up on your physics. It is still considered to be a violation of the law of physics to transfer information faster then the speed of light. Even experiments with quantum entanglement have not been able to do that ( which is what you are talking about). While perhaps possible in some method not currently known. It is not possible with current known physics.

    Sounds like your firm is now being sold snake oil. For $200/hr i can debunk the system for you.

  217. JBJB says:

    It’s looking more and more likely that the next bailout recipient will be the state of California. That should set off a nice chain of events.

  218. 3b says:

    #196 mike:Just give it time,you will see it in upper haughty-ville too.

    He is already seeing it, he is just in denial.

  219. yikes says:

    # John Says:
    December 4th, 2008 at 8:41 am

    ING cut rates twice in the last 30 days on CDs, they smell a big rate cut going. When is Hank going to fix corp and muni bond spreads? They are way crazy high next to treasuries? Or is he just going to hammer CDs down to 1% and T-bills down to 1/4 of a % and force people into the water.

    why would you feel forced? if you have enough saved up, one year with crappy interest and inflation will not destroy you.

    you dont think they’ll raise rates by 2010? and even then – i haven’t seen anyone say inflation is coming in 2010 yet, so what’s the worry?

  220. BC Bob says:

    “mustard seeds”

    vic,

    Just lost a few seeds!

  221. BC Bob says:

    vic [213],

    They want by bil to pay $40K, psl. He told them to shove it. It will probably go up now. Better yet, why not arrange a swap with the season ticket holders? No psl, but you must buy a piece of our enhanced, leveraged fund. By the way, no guns allowed in the new stadium.

  222. Sean says:

    re #206 – “torch the joint”

    My first apt in NYC was on 51st and 8th avenue in Hell’s Kitchen. It was a regular roach motel, and nearly every morning there was a junkie passed out on the stoop.

    One Thanksgiving eve as I returned home around 10PM there was about five fire trucks outside the building and smoke was pouring out of the place. A fire “started” on the top floor and every apartment in the place was trashed from all of the water that was poured into it. My place was trashed from the thousands of gallons of water streaming down though the building, the ceiling collapsed and everything was totaled.

    Not long after a 26 story luxury high-rise building went up on that corner from 50th-51st st. A Blockbuster is now in the spot where my walk-up once was, to this day I still believe the place was torched to clear it out for the new development. After the fire the landlord graciously offered to relocate all of the tenants right away into other buildings around the city.

    I miss that cheap rent, but I don’t miss the roaches.

  223. John says:

    Actually just last month the suspended work on that project in Sweeden, the separation and re-coupling of the electrons pose a challenge but give it ten years with a 1,000 people working on it and I will be able to shoot you anywhere in the world.

    kettle1 Says:
    December 4th, 2008 at 2:07 pm
    John 161,

    You might want to brush up on your physics. It is still considered to be a violation of the law of physics to transfer information faster then the speed of light. Even experiments with quantum entanglement have not been able to do that ( which is what you are talking about). While perhaps possible in some method not currently known. It is not possible with current known physics.

  224. Clotpoll says:

    John (212)-

    “I can see people jumping into a new GMC SUV with $1.50 gas, with a 4% home equity loan and a $5,000 tax credit to boot. God Bless America.”

    I can see them too, John. All ten of them.

  225. still_looking says:

    Anyone else watching the live coverage of the automakers on Capitol Hill?

    Forget ipecac. All you need is to watch this.

    sl

  226. Clotpoll says:

    3b (216)-

    Compare the John on a day like today with the John we get when everything’s going in the tank.

    He can thumb his nose at us all he wants, but we don’t turn into Mr. Hyde when things turn against us in the markets.

  227. Ben says:

    “Interesting stuff, just came from a meeting where we talked about new trading systems with insane low latency, 1-2 milisecond quoting capability, the more interesting thing was the concept of coupling electrons so we can throw away the speed of light limitations on trade execution and move towards instantaneous. I hate the damm speed of light, who wants to move that slow.”

    Umm, bleh. As a physical chemist, it sounds like someone is trying to create a “speed of light” start up company that will post profits once the laws of physics are broken. Kinda like Pets.com would post a profit when the laws of economics were broken. Seriously, even if that were possible, it’s still limited by the moron that is pressing the start button on the other end.

  228. kettle1 says:

    John,

    big difference between 10 years in the future and being sold a tech today……

    And who ever figures that our will get a Nobel prize and be listed amongst the ranks of newton and Einstein

  229. Clotpoll says:

    vodka (217)-

    You might want to ask John if that firm took him out to lunch at Applebees following the presentation.

  230. BC Bob says:

    “You might want to ask John if that firm took him out to lunch at Applebees following the presentation.”

    In line with Frank?

  231. d2b says:

    Sign of the times, my wife can not get through to Unemployment. It’s been busy all day. The untold story is of hiring freezes. I know three big Philadelphia companies that instituted freezes this week.

    Meanwhile the market refuses to die….

  232. still_looking says:

    Let’s see… my tax dollars go to support three companies to help them build cars that people can’t afford or don’t want…

    Yeah.

    I think I get it now.

    sl

  233. 3b says:

    #227 clot:Compare the John on a day like today with the John we get when everything’s going in the tank.

    You mean the days when he is pleading in heartfelt terms that something must be done, which kills his I am a wall st tough guy who has seen and done it all persona?

  234. Sean says:

    Question for John.

    If a Long Island couple earns 8k take home pay from two incomes, borrows 2k a month on credit, then spends $10k a month, has 4k in checking and savings, then suddenly loses access to half the 2k in monthly credit, how many months will pass before the household runs out of money if it does not reduce spending or sell stock, bond or property investments to raise cash?

    How about if they access to both 2k of monthly credit and one of the two 4k monthly take home paychecks?

  235. Ben says:

    “John,

    big difference between 10 years in the future and being sold a tech today……

    And who ever figures that our will get a Nobel prize and be listed amongst the ranks of newton and Einstein”

    kettle, we don’t give nobel prizes for good science anymore. It’s more of a political award.

  236. still_looking says:

    Clot says: we don’t turn into Mr. Hyde when things turn against us in the markets.

    Nope we just ride our shorts…then,

    “..just smile and wave, boys, smile and wave….”

    sl

  237. Sean says:

    That should be lose access to 2k in credit and one 4k monthly income.

  238. Hoodafa says:

    NYC Apartment Rents Fell in November, Vacancies Rose

    Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) — Manhattan apartment rents fell for a fourth consecutive month in November and vacancy rates reached 2 percent for the first time in almost two years as Wall Street’s financial turmoil took a toll on the housing market.

    More at: http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aCnxy9pXB7O0&refer=home

  239. Victorian says:

    10-year 2.589%
    30-year 3.095%

    Who the fcuk is buying equities??!!???

  240. DL says:

    “i’ll say this – it feels good to have money in your pocket and nothing to worry about.”

    Words to live by.

  241. Hoodafa says:

    Ack – pardon the duplication.

  242. Ben says:

    “Let’s see… my tax dollars go to support three companies to help them build cars that people can’t afford or don’t want…

    Yeah.

    I think I get it now.”

    It’s worse than that. Part of the bailout money is going to go to their financing departments. So, they need to take your money, so they can loan you money to buy a car. Then you can pay interest to them on the money they took from you. They then have the audacity to claim that the taxpayers will get paid back with the interest they are charging the taxpayers for borrowing the money to buy cars.

  243. still_looking says:

    here comes the shotgun GM/Chrysler marriage given as an edict by Mr. Bennett.

    sl

  244. Ben says:

    ““i’ll say this – it feels good to have money in your pocket and nothing to worry about.””

    Depends on what town you live in. I have to worry about muggers.

  245. still_looking says:

    I’d love to put Nardelli in a sealed room with a bunch of Home Depot shareholders.

    sl

  246. zieba says:

    Having read post #50 I am now convinced John is really an attention wh@re just yankin’ everyone’s chain.

    This is not the first time he posts this anecdotal soccer mom shtick. And he knows just when to place the posts.

    John, just make sure to clean up after yourself when you’re finished. (see: onion)

    Has anyone actually met John at a GTG? If so I may have to eat crow.

  247. Al says:

    John Says:
    December 4th, 2008 at 1:39 pm
    Actually I live in a white trash blue collar neighborhood. They are all teachers, cops, firemen, nurses etc with lots of dual incomes.

    WOW Do I have a different definition of white trash…

    Not teachers, Nurses, Cops and Firemen – all well paid and well respected professions….

  248. Clotpoll says:

    Cramer now touting Sears as a buy.

    Can someone please have this guy arrested?

  249. Stu says:

    Who the F cares about the results of the Big 3 begging session. It’s a foregone conclusion that we are going to burn another 50 billion in the wink of an eye. We just pledged nearly 5 trillion and we are making a royal circus out of 1 hundredth of the amount.

    Bread and Circus’ folks. Step right up and get your cotton candy.

    $5,000,000,000,000
    $50,000,000

    Isn’t that first number disturbing?

    Hey it’s only $167 per person. That’s not so bad. Just don’t multiply by 100 to figure out what you owe for the other 99%!

  250. kettle1 says:

    Ben,

    Let me guess, you like leather, paddles and spiked collars?????

    P chem…. i hated every single day of it. learned a lot but never want to work with it again

  251. Zack says:

    #249

    A year ago, Cramer was touting this stock when this was in the 160’s I believe. Now it is $40.
    What a destruction of wealth if you listened to him. Now he wants to be the SEC chairman.
    They should stick a carrot in his you know where..

  252. still_looking says:

    Stu 250

    What? You don’t like a good horror flick?

    sl

  253. BC Bob says:

    Zack [252],

    If you liked it at 160, you gotta love it at 40. He must be touting dollar cost averaging.

  254. All Hype says:

    Did Goldman Sachs get an advanced copy of the jobs report?

    S&P down 3.4%

  255. HEHEHE says:

    “It is the biggest bubble since March 10 2000.

    Victorian Says:
    December 4th, 2008 at 1:36 pm
    10-year yields 2.595%.
    30-year yields 3.112%.

    The bond market is wrong?”

    And you don’t want to be the last one out the door of that stampede when it busts.

  256. Clotpoll says:

    Looks like we may get a nice puke-up after the opening bell.

  257. grim says:

    Cramer now touting Sears as a buy.

    Can someone please have this guy arrested?

    Guess Cramer doesn’t have an insider over at S&P

    From MW:

    S&P cuts Sears on deteriorating operating performance

    S&P cuts Sears to junk status on deteriorating performance

  258. Clotpoll says:

    But Cramer says no redemptions pressure on Lampert. :)

  259. Ben says:

    “Ben,

    Let me guess, you like leather, paddles and spiked collars?????

    P chem…. i hated every single day of it. learned a lot but never want to work with it again”

    rofl…you’d be surprised how different it is from the stupid math and equation they make you do in pchem class. I work with high powered lasers and make things light up.

  260. Sean says:

    Lawsuits over CDOs one big champagne supernova
    in the making.

    http://www.nypost.com/seven/12042008/business/ponzi_scheme_at_citi_142511.htm

    Perhaps O’Bama will dump Rubin lots of bad press on Citi.

  261. grim says:

    I don’t understand this guy, first he wants to be a superman and save housing, and now he wants to bury it. Hmm, or maybe he wants to ensure that Freddie and Fannie are the only game in town?

    Frank: New rule on CEO pay,mortgage securitization ahead

    A key government legislator on Thursday outlined a broad agenda to hike regulations on securitized mortgage products, hedge funds and controls on executive compensation. House Financial Services Committee chairman Barney Frank, D-Mass., told consumer advocates that he plans to introduce legislation that would continue to allow mortgage securitization to continue to exist but original lenders would still be required to have a stake in mortgages before packaging and selling the loans.

  262. John says:

    Al, in Long Island midcareer Nassau County cops make 100K a year and teachers midcareer make 100K a year. These families are pulling down 17K a month with really no childcare expenses as both parents have flexible schedules. Since their income is fixed and jobs are guranteed they love recessions so they can buy used boats and bmws for a song and get vacation and plazma deals. The people hurting are the 500K order takers in their 40’s who got jobs through connections on wall street and have a trade up home, vacation place and two leased cars. The cops/nurse couples in capes they bought in 1992 in my town for 180K ain’t hurting the least bit. They are rolling in cash.

    Sean Says:
    December 4th, 2008 at 2:44 pm
    Question for John.

    If a Long Island couple earns 8k take home pay from two incomes, borrows 2k a month on credit, then spends $10k a month, has 4k in checking and savings, then suddenly loses access to half the 2k in monthly credit, how many months will pass before the household runs out of money if it does not reduce spending or sell stock, bond or property investments to raise cash?

    How about if they access to both 2k of monthly credit and one of the two 4k monthly take home paychecks?

  263. PGC says:

    “1-2 milisecond quoting capability”

    You could have Deep Thought spiting quotes in nanoseconds and still not make it to the desktop in that timeframe.

  264. Ben says:

    “Al, in Long Island midcareer Nassau County cops make 100K a year and teachers midcareer make 100K a year. These families are pulling down 17K a month with really no childcare expenses as both parents have flexible schedules. Since their income is fixed and jobs are guranteed they love recessions so they can buy used boats and bmws for a song and get vacation and plazma deals. The people hurting are the 500K order takers in their 40’s who got jobs through connections on wall street and have a trade up home, vacation place and two leased cars. The cops/nurse couples in capes they bought in 1992 in my town for 180K ain’t hurting the least bit. They are rolling in cash.”

    Cops will be singing a different story when their municipalities go bankrupt. It’s already happening and will only get worse.

  265. John says:

    Big cheers on wall street out my window, 4pm lighting of NYSE Christmas Tree. Santa Claus Rally soon to come.

  266. Al says:

    Cops will be singing a different story when their municipalities go bankrupt. It’s already happening and will only get worse.

    Believe me, you do not want your cops to be poor… You simply don’t.

    Once cops are poor – they start to take bribes, and hustle buisnesses/people for money.

  267. Sean says:

    re: #262 – Securitization is dead in it’s current form, is Barney and the rest of his butt buddies trying to revive it? Is this going to be Covered Bonds that Klink was babbling about at the beginning of this year?

    Non-binding vote on executive compensation for shareholders? Who the hell does Barney think he is fooling.

    Somebody must have pictures of Barney….

  268. John says:

    mkt mkrs etc. do co-lo with xchanges, blk boxes are hardwired to mainframe and blk box executes in co-lo, exec is speed that light can trav the 20 to 50 ft between blk box and mainframe.

  269. grim says:

    CNBC reporting Rubin may step down

  270. John says:

    Say what you like, but you can’t beat his sandwich.

    grim Says:
    December 4th, 2008 at 4:07 pm
    CNBC reporting Rubin may step down

  271. John says:

    1.5 weeks till rate cut, 1 week to auto bailout. 1 day till xmas party. I think Larry Kudlow is a rock god.

  272. Sean says:

    John – 17% of the actual workforce in Nassau county are government employees who are supported by the rest of the private sector workers like you John. Sounds like allot of government employees to me.

    There are 350k families residing in Nassau County and many are running on two incomes to make ends meet, there aren’t that many in the top 5% bracket. If only a small percentage of them lose their Wall St or other midlevel Manhattan job then watch out!

    By the way the answers to my questions above are 4 months if their credit cards are cut they will be broke, and 1 month if one of them loses a job and credit cards are cut, since most have a very small cushion in savings.

    What are they all going to do beg for a property tax cut to keep their house? If that happens bye bye cops and teachers.

  273. Clotpoll says:

    Funny, this recruitment piece for Clodwell Bunco doesn’t mention Realogy blowing through mind-boggling amounts of cash and violating all their debt covenants.

    I share with you some of the sickness I have to contend with daily:

    http://tinyurl.com/5lg463

  274. Clotpoll says:

    John (272)-

    Rock god? Not so much.

    Rock smoker? That’s been confirmed.

  275. BC Bob says:

    “1.5 weeks till rate cut, 1 week to auto bailout. 1 day till xmas party.”

    John,

    How many days until everybody you know is 200% long?

  276. John says:

    3x long. BTW I hope the people who can’t pay the property tax sell. I have my eye of a few expensive homes on the market and if you cut the price 500K I will gladly pay the high RE taxes. Heck give me a house for free and I will pay 24K a year on a nice one acre 5 bed house.

    Actually a lot of towns on LI is not effected by this. Towns like Freeport where loose credit caused subprime sludge to buy homes they could never afford are in trouble. But towns like Island Park with small capes and long time residents are fine. Those pos little capes were around 120K when purchased and they have a power plant in town that pays a boat load of taxes. In island park one person working in trader joes can support a house.

  277. 3b says:

    #277 John:Actually a lot of towns on LI is not effected by this.

    Actually you are probably wrong. How many people bought houses in t those towns in the last few years?

    And how many of the long time residents took equity out for home improvemnets/additions/new cars/college/vacations and all the rest.

    Every area is affected John, no a area is immune. It really is that simple.

  278. Zack says:

    Imagine a work arrangement where you get paid hundreds of millios of $$ and if you screw up, the only consequence is that you lose your job. I wish I had that job..

  279. John says:

    I don’t know anyone who ever took out a home equity loan or a car loan. Why would you?

    We do however have new neighbors on our block that no one talks to who bought at peak, but we kinda just view them as renters who bought with the banks money. They aren’t really from my town. The good news is people on the block who want their kids to live in town will be able to buy these homes from the bank at a good price. Funny thing I noticed starting around 2005 people stopped talking to new owners. The neighbor who lives next to me I don’t know. But everyone at my block said they must be idiots for buying a 70 by 100 split for $630K and since both husband and wife work full time six days a week the house is just used for sleeping. The prior couple who had that house only paid 40K for the house and never had a mortgage, guy was a 100K boars head route guy and with his only expense 7k property tax he was living the high life. Houses in my town did not cross 300K till almost 2000. Most of thge folks with kids 5-18 bought in the 1980s and 1990s for anywhere between 150K and 250K. Housing was a ponzi scheme and last one in got burnt. The people who have been living in a house that costs them $500 amonth are laughing all the way to the bank. Funny neighbors think a six figure mortgage is crazy their mortgages are all in the five figures.

  280. NJGator says:

    Grim – somewhat negative review of Halcyon from Baristanet. I guess they’re not an advertiser:

    http://www.baristanet.com/food/2008/12/halycon_watch_o.php

  281. BC Bob says:

    “I don’t know anyone who ever took out a home equity loan or a car loan.”

    John,

    You can probably say the same for every homeowner in NNJ. I can’t imagine why debt/gdp is at record levels? Must be that funny govt blackbox distorting #’s. Eh?

  282. 3b says:

    #280 John:I don’t know anyone who ever took out a home equity loan or a car loan. Why would you?

    If you say so John, if you say so.

  283. bi says:

    top 10 RE terrorists of the day:

    39 Clotpoll
    28 grim
    19 John
    17 BC Bob
    16 still_looking
    15 3b
    14 lostinny
    13 Cindy
    13 chicagofinance
    11 Stu

  284. bi says:

    oil futures down to $43 and change. now i am wondering if gold will follow… down to 600 range.

  285. 3b says:

    #285 bi: oil is down, gold is down (for now), and real estate is down, wnd will continue to go down and will not recover for a long,long time. Say like 10 years.

  286. bi says:

    i see the strength of reits and financials this week so i start to think maybe this time what paulson and companies did finally starts to work. with such low mortgage rates and engery price, the recession will be end by the end of this year.

  287. BC Bob says:

    bi [285],

    Hoping.

  288. bi says:

    to FXP/SRS/SKF players, i am warnning you that you will lose most of your money in 1 year and even worse you don’t know why you have lost the money.

  289. BC Bob says:

    bi [285],

    Get your blackbox kicking, long term crude calls.

  290. bi says:

    289#, what i mean is those who play with na*ked shorts.

  291. BC Bob says:

    bi[289],

    No disclaimer?

  292. BC Bob says:

    “289#, what i mean is those who play with na*ked shorts.”

    bi,

    Did you pass on this same advice to all the naked longs, over the last year?

  293. Ben says:

    “Believe me, you do not want your cops to be poor… You simply don’t.

    Once cops are poor – they start to take bribes, and hustle buisnesses/people for money.”

    umm, the only thing that is going to happen is that the local municipalities will have to trim some of the fat. I agree, you don’t want cops to be poor. On the flipside, you don’t want a town of 25 thousand people employing a police force of 100 cops when you can’t afford it.

    In my opinion, there’s much better areas of public spending to cut than in the police force, but usually, the jobs that need to be cut are the cronies taking handouts from their elected buddies.

  294. bi says:

    292#, bob, of course all disclaimers apply. i hope that they can figure it out why FXP down 40% while FXI down 50% YTD before entering any fancy positions.

  295. Ben says:

    “I don’t know anyone who ever took out a home equity loan or a car loan. Why would you? ”

    That’s probably because people don’t go around telling everyone they took a loan out from the bank. I can spot the home equity crowd from a mile away in certain neighborhoods. Usually, you just have to look at satellite pictures of their home from 6 years ago compared to now. You’ll see new additions, pools, and cars in the driveway.

  296. BC Bob says:

    “292#, bob, of course all disclaimers apply.’

    bi,

    Ok, you were making me nervous.

  297. chicagofinance says:

    doh!

    Oil Falls Below $44, Lowest Since January 2005, as Demand Drops
    By Mark Shenk

    Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) — Crude oil fell below $44 a barrel to the lowest since January 2005 and gasoline futures dropped below $1 a gallon as the recession in the U.S., Europe and Japan cuts fuel consumption.

    Prices may dip below $25 a barrel next year if the contraction spreads to China, Merrill Lynch & Co. said in a report today. U.S. fuel demand during the four weeks ended Nov. 28 was down 6.2 percent from a year earlier, an Energy Department report showed yesterday.

  298. Sean says:

    Krammer calls double dare bottom on housing, uses Toll Brothers as an example, Bob Toll on the show thinks the bailout is working, and just needs some more advertising from the Gov’t on the 4.5% rate. If all of the ducks line up bla, bla, bla spring selling season could be a turn around.

    Meanwhile back in reality.

    http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081204/earns_toll_brothers.html?.v=10

  299. BC Bob says:

    chi [298],

    Recession or the start of a depression?

  300. willwork4beer says:

    #299 Sean

    I caught that piece of tripe, too. Did you hear that “affordability” garbage? 4.5 percent would increase affordability, a $20K tax credit will increase affordability…

    Wouldn’t lowering the freaking price increase afforability…???

    I have to go throw up now…

  301. Al says:

    # bi Says:
    December 4th, 2008 at 5:21 pm

    i see the strength of reits and financials this week so i start to think maybe this time what paulson and companies did finally starts to work. with such low mortgage rates and engery price, the recession will be end by the end of this year.

    Is it really about interest rates, oil or house prices anymore or is it about job creation and salary declines???

    For unemployed person it does not matter what are the interest rates (well may be if it is at -1% like it is for banks right now …..) or what are the oil prices.

  302. BC Bob says:

    Sean [299],

    The idiots think the problem is rates? HAH, rates are close to historic lows. In 2004, you could have locked in 5.25, 30 years. Yet, the majority went for teasers; I/O’s, exploding arm’s, etc.. They could not afford 5.25 at current, then, prices. There was a time when you thought the market would take off once the spread of price/income narrowed. Well, present day, that’s just one factor. Now we have to contend with a worldwide slowing economy, job cutbacks, the fear of cutbacks, a deep feeze credit crisis and a consumer buried in debt like never before.

    Once again, the masters are pushing on a string. What the hell, close to $8T committed, yet we are still stuck in the muck and sinking further. Why not throw some more s*it against the wall?

  303. Clotpoll says:

    beer (301)-

    Toll, Ara and the band of idiots that call themselves HBs have no f-ing clue what they’re doing or what they’re talking about.

    Or maybe they do…and they’re just hypng and spinning as fast as they can.

    As we’ve all known here for months, they can blast the rates down to 0, and it won’t matter. Nobody’s got the DP, nobody’s got the job, nobody’s got the confidence, nobody’s got the good credit…except the people who aren’t about to buy in at the current price levels.

  304. Clotpoll says:

    BC (303)-

    “Pushing on a string” pretty much sums it all up.

  305. BC Bob says:

    “with such low mortgage rates and engery price, the recession will be end by the end of this year.”

    Like in 27 days? LMAO.

    How long did it take Japan to recover, with rates at 0%? Why can’t you understand that it’s not a interest rate problem, it’s a solvency crisis.

    I wouldn’t be so damn thrilled with crude falling thru the floor. You may think falling crude will provide the impetus. On the flip side, the market may be telling you to turn out the lights.

  306. kettle1 says:

    Bi,

    While think we could see 30 or below for oil, its like getting your wish from alladins lamp. That wish comes with a very high price.

    With prices so low many oil development projects will e shelved and will end up having long term negative supply impacts. If they are having a hard time financing these projects now , then what will things look like in 5 years? If takes about 10 years to go from initial development of a new field to full scale production. The first 5 to 7 years of production from a new field is very low as most fields see and exponential growth curve in oil production in the first portion of the fields life span.

  307. chicagofinance says:

    Clotpoll Says:
    December 4th, 2008 at 6:51 pm
    beer (301)- Toll, Ara an the band of idiots that call themselves HBs have no f-ing clue what they’re doing or what they’re talking about. Or maybe they do…and they’re just hypng and spinning as fast as they can.

    clot: I’ve seen Toll in person at a Cornell event. His MO? Look…he cashed out so much equity at inflated prices that he is set up period, and further that company has a whole disgusting set of interlocking self-dealing that basically enriched the executives on a whole host of side projects and JVs. That said, that presentation convinced me that he is all about the glory of the kill. He is a Napoleanic little sawed off SOB…..

    F— him….useless empty ba$tard…

  308. bairen says:

    #296 Ben,

    I worked with a guy who took out a home equity loan to have a pool installed. A few months later his pos minivan died. He was all freaked out about how he can’t afford a car loan too. I cheerfully pointed out he could always drive his new inground pool to work.

    He didn’t like my input too much.

  309. bairen says:

    #301 beer,

    Bingo. Let prices fall so people can afford to buy a house. I never understood how high home prices are good for the economy. Tons of capital are sucked up for mortgages and people get stuck with big monthly payments. If housing was cheaper people could save for retirement, education, and have some fun/discretionary money too.

    But the powers that be would rather convince us that a pos cape should go for 500k and leave you with a 3k monthly nut and removing all that capital and borrowing ability from society. Instead of financing new infrastructure and alternative energy choices, lets borrow money to pump up the prices of pos houses across the land.

  310. bairen says:

    #310 chifi

    Was plaxico riding shotgun?

  311. comrade nom deplume says:

    [309, 312] barien,

    LMAO.

    Also, check your email.

  312. Clotpoll says:

    bairen (311)-

    At its heart, I still believe all the attempts to reinflate this burst bubble have the deliberate, systematic impoverishment of average Americans as their final goal.

    Part of that impoverishment must necessarily involve trapping people in their homes forever and enslaving them with various forms of debt that can never be overcome.

  313. Al says:

    I have to agree with Kettle when oil is too cheap – it is bad for the economy.

    Russia oil companies are suffering – low oil prices makes them cut current jobs and future development projects – which inevitably will make oil more expensive in the future.

    In addition cheap oil – lead to more waste.

    Everybody is driving bigger cars, letting their car IDLE and development of new hybrids is slowed down. TOYOTA is going to come out as big winner in the end, as they do have high capacity of hybrids and no other car company will invest too much into a new facilities/factories/supply chain until worlds economy improves.

    Cheap oil – less profit for oil companies and petrochemicals.

    Another question – in NJ right now most people have natural gas – how many saw their rates lowered this winter??

    So it is kind of ironic – High oil prices are bad, but too low prices even worse….

  314. Al says:

    P.S.

    I looked at prices in Somerville/Branchburg/Bound Brook/Bridgewater/Raritan area and I finally see significant declines in “starter home segment”…

    SO I guess train towns are next?

  315. Sean says:

    From what I have heard today about CDS makes clot look like a Dallas cowboy cheerleader.

    2nd leg down anyone?

  316. bairen says:

    #314 clot,

    It’s like the modern version of indentured servitude/serfdom/sharecropper.

    I thought the word mortgage was from the word “mort” (till death). If so, very appropriate.

  317. Rich In NNJ says:

    Bob (303),

    Well put!

  318. bairen says:

    #313 nom,

    got it. thanks.

  319. d2b says:

    Toll-
    Everything they touch turns to sh*t. Once he or his brother cashed out they bought the Philadelphia Inquirer and Reedman car dealerships.

    The upside is that they can always issue more options and screw their shareholders.

  320. grim says:

    What recession?

    Not the old unemployment claim system

    Nearly 100 unemployed people packed a state Department of Labor and Workforce Development office in New Brunswick today, complaining of trouble filing unemployment claims. They learned an important fact about the modern system.

    “We don’t have unemployment offices,” said Kevin Smith, spokesman for the department. “Unemployment is an automated system. All claims must be filed by phone or through the Internet.”

    But some of those who went to the state office on Jersey Avenue complained about being unable to connect with any claims agent by phone.

    “Nobody answers the phone. You cannot get through,” said Darryl Levonas of South Brunswick, a 45-year-old unemployed fork-lift operator. He said he wasted two hours trying to file a claim at the office today with a crowd of about 100.

    “I’ve been laid off for over a week and I’ve been down here since Monday, everyday, trying to get through to someone for about three hours each day,” said Cleveland Graham, 46, of New Brunswick, who lost his job driving a truck for a small company

    “I thought somebody here would let me file something on paper, but they just point us to the phones,” he said. He has used his home phone, his cell phone and the state office phone since Monday–to no avail.

    Clerks at the state offices can’t help, the labor department spokesman said. The office is a training and work search center geared to place people in jobs, not accept claims. The days of going down to a state office and filling out forms ended years ago. It may have taken the current economic crisis–officially declared a recession by experts earlier this week–for many to realize that.

    “I don’t know exactly what these people are dealing with, but I do know the call load is heavy. I’m not surprised,” Smith said, adding he’d report the complaints.

  321. grim says:

    What recession?

    DHL closing its South Hackensack facility

    Delivery company DHL Express (USA), Inc. will close its South Hackensack pick-up and delivery facility and lay off as many as 1, 550 workers – mainly drivers – in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut .

    The company, in a letter to the state Department of Labor and Workforce Development, said the facility will be closed over a two week period, starting Jan. 23, and workers terminated.

    Lou Calemine, president of Teamsters Local 295 of Valley Stream, NY, said about 100 people work at the South Hackensack facility. He said all the 94 jobs held by his members at the facility would be cut, though some workers may be able to exercise seniority rights and move to another company facility, at the expense of workers there.

    Calemine said DHL will also close facilities in Morristown, Edison, and Freehold, leaving two New Jersey locations open – in Elizabeth and East Windsor.

    “It’s been heavy losses and a tragedy for our members,” he said.

  322. BC Bob says:

    “CHICAGO (AP) — People aren’t laughing any more at the way-out-there predictions of Peter Schiff, whose long-standing pessimism about the economy and stock market has been largely borne out.”

    “Now, in the midst of what’s already the biggest financial crisis in decades, the prominent purveyor of gloom and doom still sees far tougher times ahead — including a depression and a bear market he thinks will last another five years or more”

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Financial-doomsayer-Schiff-apf-13737624.html

  323. grim says:

    What Recession?

    Atlantic City casinos cut 1,000 jobs in November

    Casinos slashed nearly 1,000 jobs in November as the sagging economy and competition from Pennsylvania’s slot parlors continue to batter the Atlantic City gaming market.

  324. bairen says:

    Why is 287 more crowded during rush hour the last 2 months? Is it

    1) Cheap gas so people have cut back on car poling or public transportation

    2) People trying to come in earlier and hope the guy coming in on time gets canned instead of them?

    3) Our lovely infrastructure?

  325. grim says:

    What Recession?

    Credit Suisse Boosts Home Foreclosure Forecast

    Credit Suisse on Thursday boosted its forecast on U.S. home foreclosures over the next four years to 8.1 million from 6.5 million, warning of a “subprime society” as economic weakness and falling home prices take a larger toll on homeowners.

    The increase from April’s forecast represents 16 percent of all mortgages, Credit Suisse analysts said in a report.

    “The severe recession that appears more and more likely, coupled with the collapse of confidence in housing and resultant foreclosures and the impact on credit scores, risks transforming the U.S. into a subprime society,” the analysts, led by Rod Dubitsky, said in the report.

  326. grim says:

    Or as Tanta used to say, “We’re all Subprime now.”

  327. BC Bob says:

    “Or as Tanta used to say, “We’re all Subprime now.”

    And Japanese. Worse?

    http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?p=63569#post63569

  328. grim says:

    For the legal contingent:

    Proskauer Rose Rings In Holidays With 35 Lawyers A Leaving

    Proskauer Rose shows its Holiday spirit by jettisoning associates and support staff faster than Thanksgiving leftovers. News today of at least 35 associates and 25 support staff to join the departed. The lesson on this one is that the collapse has now reached the litigation groups and the downsizing will not let up during the Holidays.

  329. chicagofinance says:

    yikes: I just got the fund…Slackwad sat on it since 10AM……

  330. yikes says:

    John Says:
    December 4th, 2008 at 1:39 pm

    Actually I live in a white trash blue collar neighborhood. They are all teachers, cops, firemen, nurses etc with lots of dual incomes.

    sorry, had to chuckle at lumping “white trash” and “blue collar” and teachers and dual incomes in the same group.

  331. Al says:

    TO think that property in Dubai depreciates!!! Unthinkable!!!

    For some strange reason nobody wants to buy a condo in bazillion story building in the middle of desert in Muslim country for 10000000$??? In a country with no developed industry and quickly running out resources???

    Who would think speculators played any role in that healthy market!!??

  332. Al says:

    TO bairen 326 – after gas qwnt down I have noticed significant increase in traffic – I think it went back to pre-4$ gas, it is just during 4$ gas we got used to better traffic…

  333. chicagofinance says:

    Whole Foods
    Millburn – Union store
    2245 Springfield Ave.
    Union, NJ 07088 USA

    Store Calendar
    Meet Padma Lakshmi

    Sunday, December 7th
    3:00 p.m. | Details

    The award-winning cookbook author and host of Bravo’s highly acclaimed Top Chef reads and prepares recipes from her latest collection Tangy Tart Hot & Sweet followed by a personal book signing of her cookbook.

    * Padma Lakshmi will only be signing copies of the Tangy Tart Hot & Sweet cookbook purchased at the Whole Foods Market. Proof of purchase required.

  334. Steve says:

    BC Bob Says:
    December 4th, 2008 at 1:48 pm
    Rents falling in Manhattan. No recession? I guess these are not John’s neighbors.
    ____________________

    BC,

    I can tell you, rents are coming down in NYC- very hard, very fast. We looked at moving into the city in June/Jul, ultimately declined. Downtown bldgs were offering some incentives, nowhere else- but it still wasn’t worth the coin vs. our NJ place.

    Now, all of NYC is getting hit. Had a friend who just moved back from UK, looking at condo rentals, all the brokers for properties said “please just make an offer” – so he did. On a 2bdrm, came in $1500/mo less, told the owner to pay full broker fee & I think might have gotten 1 month free. Done deal, no hesitation. I was shocked.

    In viewing apts online, I now see nice 2bdrms in some cases going for 1bdrm prices from early summer.

    Yeah, it’s different here alright. We’re levered to Wall St up to the eyeballs.

  335. Ben says:

    How can Dubai land decrease in value. They aren’t making any new land in Dubai. Oh wait…they made a lot of new land.

  336. syncmaster says:

    Al #316,

    I looked at prices in Somerville/Branchburg/Bound Brook/Bridgewater/Raritan area and I finally see significant declines in “starter home segment”…

    SO I guess train towns are next?

    I wouldn’t call those train towns.

    I live in P-way, along the RARV abt equidistant between Dunellen and Bound Brook; it’s never been my impression that RARV towns this far out west were seeing any kind of ‘train town’ premium. The RARV is just not very useful out here, too far and too slow. Most of the people I know who live in Bridgewater and commute to NYC take the bus, for example.

    JMHO.

  337. Al says:

    I did not call them train towns I said: “I guess train towns are next”

  338. DL says:

    Grim: Ref 323. I think DHL is owned by Germany’s mail service. Last month the news here was DHL was cutting 5,000 jobs, all in the U.S. (When a U.S. company buys a German company and cuts jobs, the Germans refer to the Americans as “locusts.” When a German company spares jobs in Germany at the expense of the U.S. labor market, it’s good business sense.)

  339. DL says:

    Clot: Ref 274: Clodwell Bunco. Coffee out the nose! Thanks.

  340. Punch My Ticket says:

    lost,

    Condolences on your loss.

    May I suggest that DH look into two things:

    1) declining to act as executor – no law compels any person to act in this capacity

    2) disclaiming the inheritance of the house – no heir can be forced to inherit property

  341. Clotpoll says:

    chi (336)-

    Please post when she has decided to take her clothes off for a magazine.

  342. Clotpoll says:

    I think we can now assign FEDCO the rating of “Market Underperform”:

    Friday December 5, 5:46 am ET
    By Frank Bass, Associated Press Writer

    AP IMPACT: Bailout’s option to buy bank stocks not attractive option due to plunging stocks

    Stock intended to eventually earn taxpayers a profit as part of the Bush administration’s massive bank bailout has lost a third of its value — about $9 billion — in barely one month, according to an Associated Press analysis. Shares in virtually every bank that received federal money have remained below the prices the government negotiated.

    Most of the Treasury Department’s investments since late October have been in preferred bank stocks, more than $180 billion worth, with investments in giants like Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase, and many small community banks. But the government also negotiated options to buy up to 1.2 billion shares of common bank stock that was valued at $27 billion.

    The Treasury Department said it did not expect these common stock options to be profitable immediately and negotiated them so taxpayers could share in the wealth if the bank stocks recover.

    Now, however, the value of that common stock is worth less than $18 billion. If the government exercised all its warrants to purchase the stock today, it would lose money on 51 of its 53 agreements. Taxpayers would be out $9.1 billion.

  343. still_looking says:

    clot 345

    maybe they should have invested in shorts instead…

    sl

  344. galgon says:

    Nymex Crude Future 40.81 -2.86 -6.55 12/05

    $40 Oil. Unbelievable. Never thought I would see the day. Bi was right. Any chance it hits a 30 handle?

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