From Bloomberg:
Foreclosure Storm Will Hit U.S. in 2009 as Loan Changes Fail
U.S. foreclosure filings climbed 28 percent in November from a year earlier and a brewing “storm” of new defaults and job losses may force 1 million homeowners from their properties next year, RealtyTrac Inc. said.
A total of 259,085 properties got a default notice, were warned of a pending auction or were foreclosed on last month, the seller of default data said in a report today. That’s the fewest since June. Filings fell 7 percent from October as state laws and lender programs designed to delay the foreclosure process allowed delinquent borrowers to stay in their homes.
“We’re going to see a pretty significant storm next year,” Rick Sharga, executive vice president of marketing for Irvine, California-based RealtyTrac, said in an interview. “There are two or three clouds that suggest a pretty heavy downpour.”
Rising unemployment, expiring foreclosure moratoriums and state efforts that “run out of steam” will push monthly filings toward the record of more than 303,000 set in August, Sharga said. The number of homes that revert to lenders, the last stage of foreclosure and known as “real estate owned” or REO properties, will increase to 1 million from as many as 880,000 this year, he said.
“The forces leading to foreclosure are hard to offset in most cases and impossible in many,” Robert Hall, a Stanford University professor and chairman of the National Bureau of Economic Research committee that calls the beginnings and ends of recessions, wrote in an e-mail. “Job loss is a major source of defaults at all times, and job losses are running at extreme levels now.”
Frist?
From Forbes:
US Nov foreclosure dip is false promise-RealtyTrac
U.S. foreclosure activity dipped 7 percent in November from October, but jumped 28 percent compared with the same month a year ago and will spike without a broad permanent fix for troubled loans in this recession, RealtyTrac said on Thursday.
State laws that extend the foreclosure process, loan modification programs and a temporary halt through early January on foreclosures of loans bought by Fannie Mae (nyse: FNM – news – people ) and Freddie Mac (nyse: FRE – news – people ) pulled November’s filings to the lowest level since June.
‘I’m afraid we’re looking at a bit of a false promise,’ Rick Sharga, senior price president at RealtyTrac, said in an interview before the figures were released.
‘It’s basically a stay of execution,’ he added. ‘I am fearful that we’re going to see a pretty significant spike come January.’
From Bloomberg (link above):
New Jersey had the 15th highest rate, one in 622 households, and had 5,582 filings, up 32 percent from a year earlier. New York had the 39th highest rate, one in 3,040 households, and had 2,601 filings, a decrease of 55 percent, RealtyTrac said.
#2 – Didn’t I say that a few days ago?
grim Says:
December 9th, 2008 at 8:33 am
Given the foreclosure moratoriums passed on a state level, and the nationwide moratoriums passed by Freddie and Fannie, we’re going to need to ignore foreclosure data for November and December. At this point we’re going to need to wait until February to get a set of numbers that haven’t been manipulated.
From the Wall Street Journal:
The Mattress Stuffers
As the financial crisis swept across the nation these past few months, one of the first microtrend groups to emerge is the New Mattress Stuffers — people who have lost their trust in the financial world, and are preparing for the next meltdown.
Just as 9/11 created a vast industry in building security, so the recession could create a big industry in personal financial security — a new kind of survival kit. New Mattress Stuffers don’t care about the 10% interest rate on GE preferred stock that Warren Buffett snapped up; they care about making it through if hard times get even worse. As a result, firms which can offer ironclad guarantees of safety will appeal to this new group. These are people who have lost their faith in the housing market, the stock market, their bank, their big corporate employer, their auto company, and their last president. What is left but themselves?
…
The price of gold is down as hedge funds unwind their positions, but the sale of gold coins is up — because New Mattress Stuffers are stockpiling them for themselves and their children. And this was happening even before the crisis hit in full force. Between May and September of this year alone, sales of U.S. Mint gold coins grew by more than 600 percent. Over one million coins have been sold so far this year.
While almost every company in America is seeing a downturn, sales of home safes and vaults are surging. Sales of guns this year are up 8 to 10 percent.
…
People don’t talk much about their mattress-stuffing behavior. It kind of defeats the purpose if you tell people where your stash is. But there’s a hunger out there for security hedges — a gun, some cash, a little gold, a small safe in the bedroom — in case all the ATMs suddenly shut down. The TV shopping channels could be hawking that “Safe Haven” combination right now, a complete home solution.
Also from the WSJ:
Freight Haulers Slam on the Brakes
Expecting the Weakest Year in Three Decades, Truck, Rail and Ocean Shipping Firms Are Cutting Back
In a normal year, Gordon Trucking Inc. might replace 20% of its fleet of 1,500 big rigs with new trucks. But given the bleak outlook for the freight business, the Pacific, Wash., hauler doesn’t intend to buy a single new truck next year.
“We’re settling in for nuclear winter in the first half of 2009,” says Steve Gordon, operating chief for the company, which hauls everything from paper products to electronics.
He’s not alone. Some industry executives and analysts predict that 2009 could be the worst year for freight-transportation volume in three decades or more.
From the Press of Atlantic City:
2nd homes are next to slump, realty expert warns
Second homes, a key market along the shore, and commercial real estate will be the next property segments to slump, the research director for the National Association of Realtors told industry professionals Wednesday.
“We would expect, in terms of the second-home market, that that side of the market, the vacation home side, is certainly going to weaken further,” Paul Bishop, research managing director for the National Association of Realtors, told the tri-state Realtors convention here.
“For those communities that have a significant vacation home presence, there’s probably going to be a little bit more downward pressure on that segment of the market than there is in the overall market,” he said.
A Realtor survey of second-home buyers found that when the housing bubble burst, they lost interest in such homes as investments, he said – and as the economy has deteriorated, buyers have started losing interest in second homes for vacation purposes, too.
From the Courier Post:
Cherry Hill freezes wages
More than 130 nonunion township workers will go without raises next year, a move that should save the municipality some $200,000, Mayor Bernie Platt said Wednesday.
He announced his executive decision, unprecedented at least in recent memory, as Cherry Hill attempts to limit expenses and tax rates in a weak economy.
“I don’t see what choice we have, unfortunately,” said Council President Steve Polansky, who supported the mayor’s decision. “It’s not something we wanted to do. . . . It’s no different from what you’re seeing happen in the private sector and other places in the public sector.”
The township laid off five people from its 345-member work force earlier this year. Twenty other positions were eliminated through attrition over the past couple of years.
it seems in my area that li pending’s are around 300, 000 which would be median nj home less %20 down. It still seems unaffordable for most. plus who knows what will happen to property taxes.
plus who knows what will happen to property taxes.
This is the wildcard people should be concerned about. Not whether prices have bottomed, or how much further they will fall, but what the burden will be to carry it until you die. That’s right, until you die. You’ll pay off your mortgage, but you’ll never pay off the state.
It is resoundingly clear that the State of NJ will not consider cutting spending or employees to reduce the burden on the taxpayer. As businesses and residents continue to flee the state, they will have no other choice but continue to increase taxes on those remaining.
I have no problem paying high taxes for current benefits, or for the benefit of the next generation, but I sure as hell won’t pay them to support the lifestyle of those who have long since left the state.
grim, 10 “but what the burden will be to carry it until you die.”
Or until you flee (that is, if you can sell.)
Death and taxes….no wait, both.
sl
http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2008/12/15/081215fa_fact_gladwell?currentPage=all
The New Yorker – Malcolm Gladwell
“Most likely to Succeed”
A case for “withitness”
“Teacher effects dwarf school effects: your child is actually better off in a “bad” school with an excellent teacher than in an excellent school with a bad teacher.”
Well ideally – you would have both!
Interesting article on the economics that are driving the riots in Greece. Seems like it could happen in the U.S. (and other countries) as well.
The underlying rot was disguised by the global credit bubble, and by the Greek property boom. It is now being laid bare.
“Greece has a public debt of 93 per cent of GDP, well above the Maastricht limit. This did not matter in 2007 when bond spreads over German Bunds were around 26 basis points, meaning that investors were willing to treat all eurozone debt as more or less equivalent.
It matters now. The credit default swaps on Greek sovereign debt were trading around 250 today (compared to 52 for Germany, 62 for the US, 120 for the UK, and 178 for Italy). It has moved into a class of its own.”
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/ambrose_evans-pritchard/blog/2008/12/10/greek_fighting_the_eurozones_weakest_link_starts_to_crack
Think NJ will see a pot of superfund money coming its way?
“Corzine’s chief of staff to head EPA.”
http://www.philly.com/inquirer/home_top_stories/20081211_Corzine_s_chief_of_staff_to_head_EPA.html
“GMAC pleads with investors to help it survive.
With the deadline for raising enough capital to become a bank holding company by year’s end fast approaching, GMAC Financial Services yesterday issued a plea for help to investors.
Reaching bank-holding-company status is considered imperative to GMAC’s survival and, consequently, its ability to continue providing financing to car dealers and a variety of consumers.
GMAC announced yesterday that it was extending by three days, until tomorrow, its “early-tender” deadline for participation in a debt exchange – the third extension since the capital-raising effort was launched Nov. 20. The face value of the debt eligible for exchange – notes issued by GMAC and its Residential Capital L.L.C. mortgage unit (known as ResCap) – is $38 billion.”
http://www.philly.com/inquirer/business/homepage/20081211_GMAC_pleads_with_investors_to_help_it_survive.html
More collateral damage from the housing bust, from MarketWatch:
Stanley Works cuts forecast, plans 2,000 job cuts
Stanley Works said Thursday that it now expects full-year 2008 earnings from continuing operations to come in within a range of $2.60 to $2.70 a share. Excluding an expected fourth-quarter charge of 70 cents a share related to its cost-reduction plan, it expects 2008 earnings from continuing operations of $3.30 to $3.40 a share, which is about 35 cents to 45 cents lower than previously expected. On average, analysts polled by FactSet Research were looking for 2008 earnings of $3.88 a share. The New Britain, Conn.-based toolmaker said its cost-reduction plan includes cutting about 2,000 jobs, or 10% of its current employee base and closing three manufacturing facilities, citing the impact of “severe weakness in the global economy.”
No love for Stanley? Isn’t Stanley an American brand at least equivalent with GM or Ford? Who hasn’t swung a Stanley hammer over the course of their life?
Is tool and hardware manufacturing less of an important enterprise?
For the past few weeks I’ve been interested in watching a chart on my site change.
October was a big month in terms of foreclosures in Bergen County. November and December also started out looking like they were also going to be big. But then things started changing.
More foreclosure auctions were being pushed back. At one point in October there were around 200 properties scheduled for a November auction but by the end of the month that dropped to less than 80.
January seems to be be the rug they’re getting swept under. Right now there are 333 BC foreclosure auctions scheduled for January. Three times more than the number that were reported as scheduled at the end of October. You can see the bergen county foreclosure activity charts on that link.
Stanley started moving jobs and factories overseas in the late 80′s.
Boy are they going to feel silly when they realize that with all the value of the dollar dropping it might be cheaper to have manufacturing in the US. :)
I spoke to my buddy who works for the Viking Yacht Family’s Hedge Fund last night. It’s a group of about 15 and the first round of layoffs came about; they cut 2. He survived this round but frankly, I’m surprised he lasted this long. The fund is down just about 50% and trading has been halted for months.
October was a big month in terms of foreclosures in Bergen County. November and December also started out looking like they were also going to be big. But then things started changing.
Agree.
Looking at the tax records, I’m seeing quite a few NOS being pushed back as well, many of these were followed up by an assignment a month or two down the line.
I believe owners (or their lawyers) were using the chain of assignment issues to forestall Sheriff Sales. In almost every case the assignment was from the securitization pool back to the servicer/originator.
Looks like lienholders are getting their paperwork in order and moving forward.
“The fund is down just about 50% and trading has been halted for months.”
Don’t most hedge funds operate with a large percentage of borrowed funds? I would thing being down 50% would put them underwater.
Stu and I are settling into the exit row seats for our flight to Vegas. ‘Foreclosure Storm’ sounds like a great name for a penny slot game.
Have a great weekend, kids.
#21 continued
I’ve been tracking a property out in Morris County that I’m interested in.
Borrower owes in excess of $500k, currently listed short. Lis pendens filed over a year ago, as was the NOS. Looked like it was in limbo, no longer on the docket. Late last month an assignment appeared, from the trust back to Wells Fargo. Home still for sale and vacant, last I heard the owner moved away.
I expect to see another notice of sale filed, and it get put right back on the Morris Sheriff Sale Docket.
Another trend I’m noticing, and this is just an anecdote not data, is that more Sheriff sales are being canceled due to Bankruptcy. Any thoughts here?
“Looks like lienholders are getting their paperwork in order and moving forward.”
The Boyko decision seemed to give some negotiating power. In recent months there have been quite a few news reports regarding asking entities starting the foreclosure process to produce documentation that they indeed do own the mortgage in question.
Some of the banks have clearly gotten their ducks in a row based on the named plaintiff in the foreclosure.
329.
DL
I grew up in Cherryhill so I know exactly where you are talking about. Yeesh.
Stanley. He he he he Stanley…….he he he. I like Stanley
#22 Tom Says:
December 11th, 2008 at 8:25 am
“The fund is down just about 50% and trading has been halted for months.”
Don’t most hedge funds operate with a large percentage of borrowed funds? I would thing being down 50% would put them underwater.
It’s all family investors and relatively small compared to your avg. fund. I don’t know the exact dollar amount but they are treading water for sure. It could be any day that staff is cut to 2 people. I mean how many people does it take to manage a couple of million?
re: #17 Stanley Works tried re-incorporated in Bahamas back in 2002. They set off a firestorm in Conn and DC over it.
10.
grim, couldn’t agree more about prop taxes being the wildcard. I’m not even sure its a wildcard anymore, seems like a sure thing. Even in good times (last 6 years) my prop taxes have gone up 800-900 every year, my income has been stagnant.
Barb: Ref 26; One of the areas we are looking at in Cherry Hill is Barclay Farms. Do you know anything about it? We’ve only driven through but it seemed well preserved.
FYI, just heard Steve Forbes on the radio saying as fast as we’ve gotten into this crisis we’ll be out of it this Spring. To the moon!!!
Of course prognostications from somebody who didn’t even see this problem coming should likely be taken for what they are worth. He still thinks all our problems are a result of mark to market accounting.
#10 grim: I agree. price declines are not a debate any more, they are declining, and will IMO only accelerate next year, but the property tax boogey man really sacares me.
In my town there is no end in sight to the increases, and the Mayor has alreadyy warned we are looking at at least another $700/$800 increase next year, and this in a town where average yearly taxes are approaching 10K for the proverbial POS Cape.
DL,
pretty nice neighborhood, much nicer than nearby Kingston. Does Barclay go into CHHS West or East? I can’t remember but if you have kids, it may be a consideration. I went to West, a rougher school than fancy pants East but it had (at the time) great teachers and culturally was very different from the average public school experience. I feel lucky for having attended all 4 years at West.
From MarketWatch:
Jump in continuing claims is most since 1974
U.S. continuing claims highest since Dec. 1982
U.S. continuing jobless claims rise 338,000 to 4.4 million
U.S. weekly initial claims highest since Nov. 1982
U.S. initial jobless claims rise 58,000 to 573,000
word of the day- Auto-Tsar.
Please use Auto-Tsar in a sentence…
I haven’t done any analysis in regards to adjournments due to bankruptcy other than a couple months back noticing that the NJ bankruptcy rate was also rising.
I just ran across a couple of properties I was researching that wound up getting adjourned because of bankruptcy.
It was sick. The owners made good money but had no savings and insane debt. I remember one. Income was about 200k between the husband and wife. They had 2 expensive cars and an RV reposessed and about 1 mil borrowed against the home.
Since many people in foreclosure are underwater in their mortgages and loan modifications hard to come by, I wouldn’t be surprised if the number of foreclosures postponed due to bankruptcy is greater than it used to be. Moriss County makes it easier to track that than other counties but I haven’t been focussing on it much.
Pay Option Loans Could Swell Defaults
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28035238/
33.
3b Honestly, I don’t know why anyone without kids would live n this state unless they’re making serious bucks at their profession that could not be duplicated elsewhere.
Yes. Property Taxes are only going to make things worse. How many prudent towns/counties out there created a rainy day fund with the increase in property tax revenues from the real estate boom rather than increasing spending assuming the increased revenues would always be there?
From Bloomberg:
Trade Deficit in U.S. Unexpectedly Widens as Exports Decrease
The U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly widened in October as faltering global demand led to a third consecutive drop in exports, signaling the American economy is sinking even faster than previously estimated.
The gap expanded 1.1 percent to $57.2 billion from a revised $56.6 billion in September, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Exports dropped to the lowest level in seven months as foreign purchases of U.S. aircraft, automobiles, chemicals and food waned.
The global credit crunch is slowing growth in Europe, Asia and Latin America, indicating the U.S. can no longer count on gains in trade to help offset the recessions in housing and manufacturing. American households and businesses are also retrenching, a sign that purchases of foreign oil, televisions and computers will keep softening.
“U.S. trade flows have been signaling a rapid deceleration in global economic activity,” Lena Komileva, chief economist at Tullet Prebon Plc in London, said before the report. The U.S. “continues to lead the global economic cycle, but the rest of the world is quickly catching up.”
12…better yet…imagine — there is really no correlation between academic success and ‘success in the real world’.
Tax Free Bond of the Day for non AMT folks. Goes to show crazy spreads, taxable treasury of around this maturity is 3% yet this muni is 8% just two years ago the tax free would have been a higher yield.
PORT AUTH N Y & N J SPL OBLIG REV SPL 05.75000% 12/01/2025 PROJ BDS JFK INTL AIR TERMINAL LLC FOURTH
Basic Analytics
Price (Ask) 78.146
Yield to Worst (Ask) 8.150%
Yield to Maturity 8.150021%
Secondary,
A couple million? That’s not a hedge fund. That’s not even a shrub fund.
Barbara: No kids but Barclay feeds into CH East. We’ve been looking on the east side of Route 70 between Ellisberg Circle and where 70 meets Route 73. (I’d start naming Diners as landmarks but that’s too South Jerseyish.) The only thing that could be a show stopper is property taxes but frankly, given our criteria, we don’t have any better ideas.
#39 Barbara: Agreed. I however for a number of reasons need to stay where I am.
But I really am concerned about prioperty taxes, plus the local government and BOE, are frightenly clueless.
DJ lol, thats not Elsiberg, that’s Marlton circle, OLGAS Diner. How’s THAT for South Jersey? Guilty!
Ellisberg no longer has a diner.
#40 hehe:How many prudent towns/counties out there created a rainy day fund with the increase
If I had to guess I would say none.
I had to call my ISP’s tech support line because I was having some connection problems.
I was amazed because it was the first time I could remember ever speaking to someone that wasn’t Indian.
Definately more helpful than the level 1 support I previously dealt with. So I had to ask him where he was from.
I guess the economic crisis has turned Canada into a third world country. :)
Bad pun alert:
Auto-Tsar in a sentence: When Dennis Leary does his night club act his mind is on auto-sar-castic. (Apologies.)
Barbara: Your’re right, Marlton. I had my Circles confused. But there is still an Ellisberg shopping center there, no?
Canada and Mexico are big for “near-shore” outsourcing. Cheaper than the U.S., but significantly more culture-compatible than the east with fewer language barriers. Firms looking for higher quality customer care at a lower cost are choosing these areas readily now. This type of work used to be handled by “backwoods” operations in the US, sites located in extremely low cost areas. Not anymore though!
DL,
Having grown up is SJ, I think Cherryhill is a great choice if you have kids. The students there are a little sharper in my experience (I lived in other nearby towns too) and they influenced my academics and my future. I graduated with many now successful and creative people.
And isn’t Ponzio’s near Marlton?
“Please use Auto-Tsar in a sentence…”
With all the money our elected officials are giving away we should hire psychiatrists to determine if they are auto-tzar minds.
DL, yes. I used to ride my bike there all the time and eat at the McDees
55
DL I stand corrected, Ponzios is at Ellisberg.
I never liked Ponzios.
From Bloomberg:
U.S. Jobless Claims Soar 58,000 to a 26-Year High
The number of Americans filing first- time claims for unemployment benefits surged more than forecast last week to a 26-year high, a sign companies are stepping up firings as the recession deepens.
Initial jobless claims increased 58,000 to 573,000 in the week ended Dec. 6, the highest level since November 1982, from a revised 515,000 the previous week, the Labor Department said today in Washington. The number of workers staying on benefit rolls reached 4.429 million, also the most since 1982.
Employers are slashing payrolls as consumers retrench and credit stays frozen. Mounting job losses and falling home prices increase the likelihood that the U.S. recession will extend well into 2009, adding impetus to President-elect Barack Obama’s call for an economic stimulus package of unprecedented size.
“The labor market is facing its worst crisis since 1982, and it is certainly not over yet,” Harm Bandholz, a U.S. economist at UniCredit Markets and Investment Banking in New York, said before the report. “One of the most important tasks of the newly elected government is, therefore, to help distressed homeowners and to stimulate the labor market.”
grim (24)-
Lots of attorneys out there pushing BK on people as a way to stop foreclosure.
I’ve had several people contact me after getting big pressure from BK lawyers to start the process. Problem is, these people aren’t that far underwater & really need to just get out from under bad mortgages, not wreck their credit for 10 years, make a lawyer rich and possibly not even save their homes in the end.
Evidently, some attorneys out there are feeling the pinch, too.
The Stanley comment was half tongue-in-cheek. I really have no opinion on Stanley. My criticism lies with the Government singling out the completely unprofitable and unsustainable US Auto Industry as worthy of being saved at the expense of viable US firms with good business models.
HE (32)-
The moron Steve Forbes may be a better contraindicator than bi.
One look at Forbes should tell you that there are some mild genetic/inbreeding issues going on there.
Dewds
read this
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2008/12/christopher_christie_says_nj_h.html
cooper (36)-
“Please use Auto-Tsar in a sentence…”
John tried to auto tsar himself in the passenger seat of an AMC Pacer, but after careful consideration, whistled over one of the pros walking the block of Queens Blvd where he was parked.
Never entrust a professional job to an amateur.
Oops…that’s not what “auto tsar” means?
Sorry.
I can refute any argument defending the viability of the Big Three with two words. It addresses profitability, sustainability, competitive advantage, leadership, everything.
Two words, only two words to address all of that and show that the Big-3 are doomed to failure.
Pontiac Aztek
Instead of parading a bunch of vaporware vehicles in front of Congress to demonstrate the mythical capabilities of the firms, someone should have wheeled in a Pontiac Aztek, which represents the reality.
There would be no bailout, no loans, no tzar. The only bridge that would exist was the one they pushed the Aztek off after the hearing was over.
Please, let the patient die.
Dewds
read this
Didn’t Corzine make the same campaign promises, only to completely reneg once in office?
Barbra and DL. I went to college with a couple of kids that went to Bishop Eustace and they were some of the brightest kids I knew. Although I really don’t think Bishop was the total reason. They went public up until H.S.
68.
yeah I knew some guys that went there, has a really great rep.
grim
I like Christie because he was kicking ass and taking names years ago and I think he may be our Elliot Ness.
With opinion polls showing 53% of Americans against a bailout, I wonder if the Big 3 CEOs have any real clue as to how much U.S. consumers hate them for all the junk they have tried to foist on us all these years?
grim (66)-
The Aztek can’t touch this:
http://tinyurl.com/59ph9n
Was he kicking ass because asses needed to be kicked, or was he kicking them as a way to foster his own political career.
grim
I’m hanging onto hope…..in a pragmatic, measured and cynical jersey kind of way :)
Barb (74)-
In other words, you’re checking rates on Penske trucks and spending your weekends in Charlotte?
From the Star Ledger:
N.J. foreclosure filings rose 32 percent in November
Foreclosure filings in New Jersey rose almost 32 percent in November, year-over-year, well below the big spike recorded in the previous month.
Some 5,582 filings were reported in the month, a mix of mortgage delinquency notices, scheduled sheriff’s sale auctions and bank repossessions, according to RealtyTrac, an Irvine, Calif.-based data collection firm. That number represented a 34 percent decline from October.
One in 622 New Jersey homes received a foreclosure filing in November, below the national rate of one-in-488 households. The Garden State ranked 15th in rate of filings for the month, down from 8th in October.
Clotpoll,
I’m not there yet but sometimes I do scan the eastern PA mls….*face burns with shame*
Is the end of NASCAR near? Layoffs are abound, and some of the race teams cannot get sponsors and are looking for mergers. Direct TV just cancelled the NASCAR package.
What will Mitchell do with his spare time on Sunday since there are only so many 50lb catfish you can fit in your spare fridge.
Graph of the claims numbers from Calculated Risk:
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/SUEZmwel4EI/AAAAAAAAD98/5gnBYD5roEM/s1600-h/WeeklyClaimsDec2008.jpg
Ugly.
sean (78)-
Mitchell is learning how to make moonshine.
grim (79)-
The only shocking thing left is that the magnitude of the collapse will catch almost everybody unawares.
You wouldn’t believe some of the recovery scenarios I hear other agents and mortgage guys spewing. Next to their stories, the parting of the Red Sea seems like a mundane event.
If there is a God, NASCAR will disappear.
#72 clot: Do not forget the AMC Gremlin.
83: Or the AMC Pacer. Fish bowl on wheels.
Mitchell is learning how to make moonshine.
Greater net benefit to GDP than making a CDO.
[63] barbara,
“[Christie] had been expected to be replaced after Barack Obama takes office.”
Ya think? It was painfully obvious that NJ state gov at all levels have the long knives out for Christie. And I am surprised the state worker unions aren’t already claiming that he is the Anti-Christ.
#71 DL: I am not quite sure I understand the belief that Americans do not like what the big 3 had to offer in the way of products.
Everywhere I look, I see lots of Explorers, Expeditions, Excursions,Envoys,Surburbans, Tahoes and lots of other big 3 SUV’s.
My question is what did the big 3 do with all the profits they made selling all of these SUV’s over the lst 15 years or so?
“Next to their stories, the parting of the Red Sea seems like a mundane event.”
- Auto-czar-alyze this, baby!
Since we’re talking about Generals…
I’m surprised it’s almost the end of the year and GE hasn’t collapsed completely.
That $140 billion guarantee they got didn’t seem to get as much attention as other bailouts.
Maybe I missed it.
3b: Ref 86: I agree they cornered the market with mini-vans and SUVs. In fact, they were trail blazers (no pun). Here in Europe, the trend they started with mini-vans and SUVs has been embraced with a passion that defies logic given the high gas prices that at peak this last summer were around $10 a gallon. But when talking about sedans etc., they have decades of mistakes and it may be too late to recover from them.
“My question is what did the big 3 do with all the profits they made selling all of these SUV’s over the lst 15 years or so?”
Maybe some or all of the following:
a) Payoff the last bailouts.
b) Invest in sub prime mortgage based securities
c) NASCAR
d) hookers and blow
e) a game of “my bonus is bigger than your bonus” that got way out of hand.
With all these doom and gloom – in the economy and outside, are we going to see 1$ homes in NJ anytime soon (aka Detroit)??? In “undesirable” areas in NJ with 5-6K taxes – taxes and maintenance are more than you can possibly collect in rents…
Or are all tenants there section 8, and landlord collects checks from the government??
If that is the case, than NJ will fare fairly well during transition of the USA into USSA – we are already more than half there.
Now all we need is the last of big Parma to stop their operation and push remaining manufacturing out if state – which will happen and layoffs and unemployment increases, job’s being cut in NJ and will come back in cheaper locale.
Isn’t NJ already have highest in country percentage of government/federal/state/local government employees???
P.S. I have just realize that there is only one letter difference between USSA and USSR!!! I think one of the major news web-sites have to publish a paper titled:
“WELCOME BACK TO USSA”
#86 – 3b – what did the big 3 do with all the profits they made selling all of these SUV’s over the lst 15 years or so?
Both Ford & GM spent the 90′s acquiring various brands which they are, in turn, selling for a loss. That doesn’t account for all of the cash, but it is a bit of it.
Also, their healthcare and pension funding requirements are quite steep.
Bobcats’ Johnson seeks $1B from Feds
Professional way to get back free money. I met a few millionaires that got in the game during the RTC days. It was amazing to hear the stories.
http://charlotte.bizjournals.com/charlotte/stories/2008/12/08/daily38.html
Tom Says:
December 11th, 2008 at 9:47 am
“My question is what did the big 3 do with all the profits they made selling all of these SUV’s over the lst 15 years or so?”
Maybe some or all of the following:
a) Payoff the last bailouts.
b) Invest in sub prime mortgage based securities
c) NASCAR
d) hookers and blow
e) a game of “my bonus is bigger than your bonus” that got way out of hand.
I think first letter should be:
a) Pay their top management 20 million/year bonuses to run the company into the ground!!!
You have 20 people like this and you are loking at 400mil/year for last 5-10 years, thats you 4 billions right there. Multiply by 3 automakers – and you got yourself 12 billions – almost the current bailout amount.
We reiterate our UNDERPERFORM rating and $1 price target on GM.
• The U.S. House of Representatives approved a $14B auto industry bailout bill last night, which
differs from the originally proposed draft bill released earlier this week.
• The several provisions that were changed to the draft “Auto Industry Financing and Restructuring
Act” have causes us to question if the Senate will approve the auto bailout bill. Given the several
provisions, we believe there is only a 30% chance that the Senate will approve the revised auto
bailout bill.
• We believe there are key changes that could make it increasingly difficult to get the needed
Republican support to pass the bill. These changes include (1) language suggesting that OEMs need
to comply with state greenhouse gas limits and (2) unclear language regarding the repayment
obligations of the government loan ahead of all other creditors (priority). Additionally, some
Republican Senators are quite concerned about the lack of details regarding UAW concessions.
• The provisions to the auto industry bailout highlight the complexity of restructuring GM with the
agreement of all interested parties, in our opinion.
• Additionally, recently there has been increased contention and uneasiness with the success and
execution of TARP assistance, which could cause the auto bailout to bare the brunt of the backlash.
• On major issue we have is the belief that funds will be returned to the government in the event that
interested parties can not come to agreement and make GM a viable company by March 31, 2009. We
believe the money will be long-gone by then and the government and taxpayers will be a claimant in
bankruptcy.
• We believe if the passage of the auto rescue bill is delayed and not passed by the Senate, GM is in a
very precarious financial situation and likely files for bankruptcy by year-end. We believe could
cause auto related stocks could come under pressure in the near-term if the auto bailout is not
passed.
clot,
now you want to send ppl to charlotte?
how is employment going to hold there with BOA being the big boy in that market?
From CNBC:
US Bancorp Sees $1 Billion in Writedowns Ahead
U.S. Bancorp, one of the largest U.S. banks, said on Thursday it may incur $1 billion of credit costs and writedowns in the fourth quarter as the recession deepens and credit markets remain tight.
Clot,
Where is the 30yr fixed conforming today? I’m hearing some good stories out there.
Grim 97
That’s simply not true. Bi said there will be no more write downs coming.
Actually once I saw a movie with my brother, along with a bottle of Jack Daniels and a bottle of Southern Comfort and brought our own cups as we knew the candy counter girl and she gave us free sodas after we polished off a bottle each we were headed to a party and I was in the back of my brothers 1975 Mellow Yellow Pacer with a Roof Rack, Mags and multi color tweed cloth seats and I Blew Chow so quick it was all over the back of the cloth bucket and shag black carpet. I cleaned it but not amount of cleaner, car freshners could mask the smell, even when it went away in the cold of winter it came back the next spring. The guy we sold the car to was in the spring, with windows down, fresh new air feshner, fresh cleaned carpet and some new baking soda. He drove away happy, but by July when it turned 90 degrees and the freshner wore off he was one sorry driver. Pacers actually held their value well in the secondary market as you just jiggle the dash and jammed a toothpick on the first digit in the odometer ever 10K miles and you went magically from 39,999 miles to 30,000 miles, which makes me wonder about all the low milage ones I see on ebay. Bet they all saw a few toothpicks to be a 50K mile 30 year old car.
Clotpoll Says:
December 11th, 2008 at 9:10 am
cooper (36)-
“Please use Auto-Tsar in a sentence…”
John tried to auto tsar himself in the passenger seat of an AMC Pacer, but after careful consideration, whistled over one of the pros walking the block of Queens Blvd where he was parked.
Never entrust a professional job to an amateur.
“US Bancorp Sees $1 Billion in Writedowns Ahead”
I wrote down $1 Billion too.
Who do I show the paper I wrote it down on to get my bailout?
Freddie Mac: 30-yr fixed-rate mortgage average 5.47% Dec. 11
grim/clot:
Another trend I’m noticing, and this is just an anecdote not data, is that more Sheriff sales are being canceled due to Bankruptcy. Any thoughts here?
Isn’t this a typical delay tactic to stay in the house. Moving because of foreclosure is fairly traumatic. If your back is against the wall, you shoot your last bullet when you see the white of the eyes.
Cheap, but not 4.5%
If you are a buyer, stay on the sidelines pending the announced Treasury manipulation down to the 4 territory.
Won’t apply to refinancing and won’t be retroactive, so if you miss it, you are out of luck.
From above:
word of the day- Auto-Tsar.
Please use Auto-Tsar in a sentence…
They auto tsar and feather every politician for this f’in mess.
sl
BARBARA-
Olga’s Diner is closed and out of business, just recently… I drove by a recent Saturday and they were not open for business. weeds growing up in the lot.
#24
“Another trend I’m noticing, and this is just an anecdote not data, is that more Sheriff sales are being canceled due to Bankruptcy. Any thoughts here?”
consumer bankruptcy filings are definitely up and if you have any equity in your house (big if) you could probably keep it if you file under Ch. 13. At very least, bankruptcy filing would delay the day of reckoning
From the WSJ (get ready for the knock on your door?)
How to Combat a Banking Crisis: First, Round Up the Pessimists
Latvian Agents Detain a Gloomy Economist; ‘It Is a Form of Deterrence
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122809308553167889.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
If you are a buyer, stay on the sidelines pending the announced Treasury manipulation down to the 4 territory.
Do you really think they will be able to acomplish their 4.5% target and do you think it will apply to commercial properties as well.
I’ll be damned if I don’t pick up a few if financing is that cheap.
Bankrupt Vallejo Losing Cops, Crime Surges
After five years in Vallejo, Joshua Coleman quit in June to join the Napa Police Department, where he said he’s getting paid more to work in a city with less crime and more stable finances.
“When they decided they were going to go to bankruptcy, I said that’s it. I don’t want to stick around to find out what bankruptcy is like,” said Coleman, 25, who is a new father. “What’s going to happen to my family if I take a pay cut or I get laid off? How long would I be able to make it?”
The department has had to dismantle its narcotics unit, take officers out of schools and reduce the number of street patrols. Police now focus on violent crimes, but have less time to investigate burglaries, identity theft, vandalism and other “quality of life issues,” Nichelman said.
Meanwhile, robberies over the past six months have been up by about 20 percent from last year, though homicides remain about the same, he said. Police are worried that would-be criminals know there are less officers in Vallejo, making it a more attractive target.
http://cbs13.com/local/vallejo.bankruptcy.crime.2.797427.html
Funny – whe will NJ cops go when state will go BK??
the laffer curve is real and at some point raising taxes will result in decreased revenue, not increased. especially in the northeast where the states are small geographically and it is fairly easy for people/businesses to move across state lines.
With all this wonderful news, why is the market down 10? Shouldn’t we be screaming past 10K?
I mean, after all, this has been priced in a long time ago.
HEHEHEHE,
Watch Bush adapt the same policy and Peter, Roubinator, Whitney and the likes will find themselves next to Ed Kozlowski
And another question – Did ANY state ever went bankrupt?
Only in NY would this headline cause people to double-take and wonder if it is a good thing……
METS LAND PUTZ
Great news for Commercial RE in Jersey..
From the Record:
TD Bank announces it will close 32 N.J. branches; layoffs unlikely
Portland, Maine-based TD Bank will close 69 branches by the end of the year, including 32 in New Jersey, a company representative said Wednesday.
The closings are part of the consolidation of Commerce Bank’s operations. TD’s Canadian parent, TD Bank Financial Group, bought Cherry Hill-based Commerce in March for $8.5 billion to expand its reach from New England and the mid-Atlantic regions to South Florida and the Washington, D.C., area.
The New Jersey branches that either have closed or will soon be closed are “within a mile or so” of other branches, spokeswoman Rebecca Acevedo said Wednesday.
In Bergen County at least seven branches have already shut down — in Hackensack, Saddle Brook, Hillsdale, Lyndhurst, Rochelle Park, Montvale and Park Ridge.
Acevedo said the employees of shuttered branches are being reassigned to offices nearby and no layoffs are expected.
#96 kettle:how is employment going to hold there with BOA being the big boy in that market?
And don’t forget Wachovia
#60
consumer bankruptcy lawyers definitely are not rich. historically, most consumer bankruptcy cases the debtor is flat broke and can’t even pay a few hundred in fees. but maybe we’re seeing a new kind of debtor these days
““When they decided they were going to go to bankruptcy, I said that’s it. I don’t want to stick around to find out what bankruptcy is like,” said Coleman, 25, who is a new father. “What’s going to happen to my family if I take a pay cut or I get laid off? How long would I be able to make it?””
How the hell do you go bankrupt at age 25?
#104 grim:If you are a buyer, stay on the sidelines pending the announced Treasury manipulation down to the 4 territory.
Did we not determine yesterday, that to date the Treasury tried but so far has failed to produce the desired 4.50? or did I miss something.
I cannot keep up with all this market manipultaion in a so called free market.
How the hell do you go bankrupt at age 25?
Read the link?????
AL,
no, a US state has never had to declare BK
—————————-
legal gurus:
can a state declare bankruptcy?????
Did we not determine yesterday, that to date the Treasury tried but so far has failed to produce the desired 4.50? or did I miss something.
Weren’t some people behind 4.5% mortgages saying that it will take 1.3 trillion of federal goverment buying mortgages, to get mortgage rate that low??
So far I think they bought something like 8 billins under this programm???
state itself cannot declare bankruptcy, but municipalities and agences of a state can:
“Only a “municipality” may file for relief under chapter 9. 11 U.S.C. § 109(c). The term “municipality” is defined in the Bankruptcy Code as a “political subdivision or public agency or instrumentality of a State.” 11 U.S.C. § 101(40). The definition is broad enough to include cities, counties, townships, school districts, and public improvement districts. It also includes revenue-producing bodies that provide services which are paid for by users rather than by general taxes, such as bridge authorities, highway authorities, and gas authorities.”
http://www.uscourts.gov/bankruptcycourts/bankruptcybasics/chapter9.html#eligibility
at the state level, I think you would just default on your debt as if you were a country
A guy i went to school with paid for college on credit cards and declared BK shortly after graduating. Got the debt wiped out. This was before the BK Law changes. And figured an MS degree for free was worth he credit hit.
The CC companies are/were idiots and deserved that.
Maybe the Governator can take a page out of the Ecuadorian playbook and declare all outstanding debts illegal.
Morning,
any chance I get get the address and any info on listing number 2610141?
As usual, many thanks in advance,
ps that rental information website posted yesterday is excellent. Nice gem for me was that because the landlord did not tell us in the contract or anywhere where the deposit was going that we can put it towards the rent. Excellent as their main home is in foreclosure and I was sure that we were not going to get it back.
grim Says:
December 11th, 2008 at 10:43 am
Maybe the Governator can take a page out of the Ecuadorian playbook and declare all outstanding debts illegal.
After that the only REALLY “Secure debt” will be the one were the big guys in gray suits come into your house at night, and break you knee-cups if you don’t you pay.
It will be secured by you internal organs and knee-cups.
It will be secured by you internal organs and knee-cups. How about “Kidney Secured Mortgage”.. Or Retina’s secured HELOC.
From MarketWatch:
Economy falling at 6.6% annual rate, economists say
U.S. gross domestic product is on track to decline at a 6.6% annual rate this quarter, one of its worst performances ever, economists for Macroeconomic Advisers said Thursday. After the release of the October trade deficit report Thursday, the firm revised down its GDP tracking forecast by 0.7 percentage point, reflecting a much weaker contribution from exports. The government’s estimate will be released on Jan. 30. Since 1947, GDP has fallen as much as 6.6% only twice: the second quarter of 1980 (down 7.8%) and the first quarter of 1958 (down 10.4%).
Do you really think they will be able to acomplish their 4.5% target and do you think it will apply to commercial properties as well.
—–
Nope. Commercial lenders are all out for lunch. Until 2017. Seriously, unless you come to the table with 50% cash equity and a building full of gov’t leases, I doubt you could buy anything right now. And the rates are nowhere near 4.5%.
I just want to say if I ever, EVER get the @#$%&^ whooping cough, I’m gonna gonna be really $%^&* pissed.
I got a tetanus shot with whooping cough booster yesterday and now I’m running a fever and feel like someone drive over me with a truck.
At this point, I could commit suicide and leave my kidney secured mortgage debt to the Auto-Czar.
From the WSJ:
‘Second Mom’
A stay-at-home mother whose husband is a litigation attorney, Mrs. Sirof says that Ms. Monterrosa was a “second mom to my kids.” Ms. Monterrosa was there when she suffered a bout of depression and when she went on spa trips or outings to get Botox and Juvéderm injections, says Mrs. Sirof.
But a few months ago, the family decided they couldn’t afford Ms. Monterrosa anymore and let her go.
Mrs. Sirof’s daughters took the separation badly. They inquired incessantly about “Vita,” as they called her. Normally a lively child, daughter Addie became sad and withdrawn. A doctor Mrs. Sirof consulted suggested renewed contact with Ms. Monterrosa.
“I try to have Alba come once a week,” says Mrs. Sirof. She says she feels “horrible” about laying off Ms. Monterrosa. But there are some perks she isn’t willing to give up. “Nothing deters me from my Botox treatments.”
When the Going Gets Tough, Some People Lay Off the Nanny
Household Help Is a Luxury Hard to Afford; Ms. Monterrosa and the Kids Who Miss Her
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122895666333196559.html
Sounds to me like the daughters need the nanny cause mommy is out to lunch.
Bloomberg Radio this morning noted layoffs at the Harvard Crimson and NPR.
Is there any segment that isn’t in layoff mode now?
From the NYT:
Housing Goals We Can’t Afford
THE national wave of home foreclosures, many concentrated in lower-income and minority neighborhoods, has created a strong temptation to find the villains responsible. Among the nominees are the major credit rating agencies like Moody’s and Fitch, which certified that the securities backed by subprime loans were a good investment.
…
Banks were now being judged not on how their loans performed but on how many such loans they made. This undermined the regulatory emphasis on safety and soundness. A compliance officer for a New Jersey bank wrote in a letter last month to American Banker that “loans were originated simply for the purpose of earning C.R.A. recognition and the supporting C.R.A. scoring credit.” The officer added, “In effect, a lender placed C.R.A. scoring credit, and irresponsible mortgage lending, ahead of safe and sound underwriting.”
re: #94 Bobcat Johnson is looking for a billion dollar bailout.
This man needs an actual heart transplant, strange how he is so worried about
scribe, 135
If there was any doubt….. its is past time for selective reduction of the herd.
“Sounds to me like the daughters need the nanny cause mommy is out to lunch.
Bloomberg Radio this morning noted layoffs at the Harvard Crimson and NPR.
Is there any segment that isn’t in layoff mode now?”
I know someone who just got his PhD and is now teaching at Harvard. He said they won’t hire anyone despite the fact that the fact that their endowment is still sky high. Talk about fiscal responsibility.
grim – how negotiable is all of this? are most realtors interested in deals like this? We’re taking a second look at a place tomorrow, and i surmise, if all goes well, we’ll have to sit down the realtor and work out a deal.
she’s not driving us around anywhere, all she has done is send me listings, email me a few comps, met us at an open house, and talked to the other agent.
at my flip from a couple years ago, i bought new construction, so there was no agent necessary. and a relative who is an agent who lives in the state handled the sale, so i had to do nothing.
Capital One sees home prices declining another 10% by mid 09
http://humorland.wordmess.net/20081025/what-the-real-crisis-is-like/
Cool Pictures in the link….
I liked the bill from the restaurant…
KB Toys bankrupt two week to Christmas, if a toy store can sell toys at christmas time that says something.
From Bloomberg:
KB Toys Files Bankruptcy, Citing ‘Sudden’ Sales Drop
KB Toys Inc., the 86-year-old toy retailer, filed for bankruptcy three years after leaving court protection, blaming a cash crisis caused by a “sudden” drop in sales at its 277 stores.
The company, based in Pittsfield, Massachusetts, exited bankruptcy in 2005 after closing hundreds of stores. KB Toys said in court papers today it owes as much as $500 million to creditors and has as much as $500 million in assets.
“The liquidity crisis is directly attributable to a sudden and sharp decline in consumer sales,” Controller Raymond Borst said in court documents filed in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Wilmington, Delaware.
make (99)-
5.375%, if you’re bulletproof.
Don’t believe what you hear. You can get a mortgage if you have a DP, good credit and low debt-to-income, but it’s far from easy.
The mortgage market in general is f’ed.
brian f.did a fantastic job of turning nascar into a mainstream moneymaker, however the frances never pay/paid property tax on most of the land upon which their speedways were built, at least not in the early years. they would threated to move the track if taxes were imposed…the folks in staten island didn’t fall for that…
KB Toys is freakin crazy! Just think about the wave of retailers that will go down in the next 2-3 months
Didn’t KB file once before in the early or mid 90′s?
They’re a mall only store that’s far more expensive than their competition. This isn’t really that surprising.
From DealBreaker:
Layoffs Watch ’08: CS
Layoffs in the New York and London branches of the House of Dougan are continuing this morning, and expected on Friday. Major cuts are going down in investment banking, as well as equities and fixed income.
Layoffs Watch ’08: MER
John Thain has been canned for the suggestion that he receive a $10 million bonus this year. Apparently his retraction was too little, too late. Kidding! Thain’s going to be fine. The same can sadly not be said for equity research. Cuts began there around 8:30 this morning.
From MarketWatch:
Capital One sees likely substantial 4Q loan loss provision
Capital One Financial said Thursday that it will likely make a substantial provision for future loan losses in the future, Chief Executive Richard Fairbank said at a Goldman Sachs-sponsored financial services conference. Fairbank also said that the bank’s assumptions at the end of the third quarter were that unemployment would be at about 7% by mid-2009, and that the average U.S. home price would decline another 10% during that same period. Fairbank was less clear about likely losses at the firm’s large credit card operation, but he did say that credit card losses would at a minimum, on a percentage basis, rise point-for-point with the unemployment rate. He added that the credit card losses could be amplified if housing prices continue to fall.
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) – Stung by the loss of $2.81 trillion in their net wealth, U.S. households paid down their debts in the third quarter for the first time since at least 1952, the Federal Reserve reported Thursday. As of Sept. 30, households’ total outstanding debt shrank at an annual rate of 0.8% from $13.94 trillion to $13.91 trillion, the Fed said in its quarterly flow of funds report. It’s the first decline in household debt ever recorded in the report. Households paid off more mortgage debt than they took on for the first time on record. Mortgage debt fell at a 2.4% annual rate to $10.54 trillion. Other consumer debts, such as credit cards and auto loans, increased at a 1.2% annual rate in the quarter to $2.6 trillion. Total U.S. domestic nonfinancial debt increased at a 7.2% annual rate, boosted by a postwar record 39.2% increase in debt taken on by the federal government
Are households paying down debt, or simply adding new debt at a lower rate than the natural rate of payoff? I could see a decline in new debt issuance being one of the primary reasons overall debt is falling.
Households paid off more mortgage debt than they took on for the first time on record. Mortgage debt fell at a 2.4% annual rate to $10.54 trillion.
What amount of decline in overall mortgage debt was due to foreclosure?
Buyout boom officially dead?
Largest leveraged buyout in history dead
The largest leveraged buyout in history is officially dead and arguments over a billion-dollar break fee have erupted after an investment group said an audit found its proposed $35 billion deal to take Canadian telecom company BCE Inc. private did not meet solvency requirements.
Grim, please tell me this list price is a typo… please.
NJMLS: 2852927
From MarketWatch:
U.S. households pay down debt for 1st time since 1952
U.S. Q3 household net worth falls $2.8 trillion
U.S. Q3 household debts fall at 0.8% annual rate
U.S. Q3 household net worth falls at 18% annual rate
Is a plummeting net worth good for home prices?
Does anyone thing that companies as large and unwieldy as the big 3 could effectively reorganize by march???? That is a multiyear task, not a quarterly task.
Buy more ammo folks.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081211/ap_on_re_eu/eu_europe_unrest;_ylt=As6TkBzwF.mZHLTkkYenfA1vaA8F
I like “Der Kommissar” better than Car Czar
Sean,
“in the movie man voice”
Coming to a urban center near you!!!!
If you notice it is paying down “personal debt:, not debt, the US Govt Debt rose greatly during the 3rd Q so actual total debt per person rose in the 3Q if you combine their lower personal debt with their greater share of the US Govt debt.
re: #162 Kettle1 – I think it will all calm down because of the holidays and because nobody likes to protest when it is freezing out.
Once people sober up because they can’t afford booze and realize they spent the remainder of the cash on sweaters another incident like this in Europe will spark up, perhaps in the summer of 09.
From the APP:
Office Depot to close stores
Office Depot will close its three Monmouth County stores within the next three months, the company said Wednesday, in a sign businesses and consumers are curtailing spending as the recession deepens.
The decision to close stores in Freehold Township, Howell and Neptune is part of a larger plan to close 112 stores nationwide, including 12 in New Jersey, which were considered to be underperforming. The company also will close six distribution centers.
…
It isn’t clear how many workers it employs in Monmouth County. Employees at the stores confirmed the closings and referred questions to Office Depot’s headquarters. A spokesperson didn’t return a call for comment.
The decision deals another blow to the Shore’s retail industry. Linens ‘n Things Inc., Boscov’s Department Store LLC and Circuit City Stores Inc. all have announced this year that they plan to close stores in the region.
The vacancy rate for commercial real estate for the region that includes Monmouth County and parts of Ocean County has risen from 3.6 percent to 5.7 percent this year, according to a report released last week by R.J. Brunelli & Co., an Old Bridge real estate consulting firm.
Seam,
I think it will be a while yet before we see that in the US. not quite yet. i was being somewhat dramatic
Sean,
Is 10,000 rounds enough?
Repricings today. Looks like the initial Treasury actions are beginning to drive down rates.
Just locked an FHA refi @ 5.125%.
i would give it until at least late summer before any insurrection type action takes place
kettle -
load them yourself?
Re:
plus who knows what will happen to nj property taxes…
This is the wildcard people should be concerned about.
i think nj will eventually cut back, it has already been put out there. there is also the wildcard that a new federal stimulus could include additional funding for states.
heres a good one, i dont see nj mentioned…
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122895665184096557.html?mod=todays_us_nonsub_pj#
K-12 Schools Slashing Costs
As state governors warn of significant shortfalls in their budgets, many schools districts are facing the biggest cutbacks they’ve seen in decades. And in some cases, they’re already slashing.
In Virginia, the Fairfax County school district is considering everything from increasing class sizes to eliminating certain high-school sports starting next fall. In Florida, the Broward County School District is looking at thousands of layoffs and eliminating certain courses and activities. The Seattle School District is even considering shuttering certain schools. This year, the Los Angeles Unified School District has already reduced 600 administrative jobs at headquarters and delayed textbook purchases.
…
Among the forces behind the shortfalls: Job losses are cutting into state income-tax revenue; the erosion of home values is hurting property-tax revenue; and the drop in consumer spending reduces revenue from sales tax. As a result, 37 states are projecting midyear shortfalls this fiscal year… Based on how things are going, the center estimates that total state budget gaps for next fiscal year will likely be around $100 billion, almost 10 times what it was last fiscal year…
Re: Teacher effects dwarf school effects:
Parental effects dwarf all other effects combined.
John Says:
December 11th, 2008 at 12:17 pm
I like “Der Kommissar” better than Car Czar
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6GmkjnL4EYw&feature=related
Wow this is a shocker..
Household Equity Percentage over time
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/SUFOK3xYaFI/AAAAAAAAD-U/82-f0oH9-T4/s1600-h/HouseholdPercentEquityQ32008.jpg
43 John Says:
December 11th, 2008 at 8:52 am
Tax Free Bond of the Day Goes to show crazy spreads, taxable treasury of around this maturity is 3% yet this muni is 8%
PORT AUTH N Y & N J SPL OBLIG REV SPL 05.75000% 12/01/2025 PROJ BDS JFK INTL AIR TERMINAL LLC
if you half the predictions about real estate and the economy are true i wouldnt go near a revenue bond that relies on corporate air travel and tourism. Port Auth couldnt even sell their 3 year $300 mill notes last week. they had to pull it from the market. no buyers in sight.
WORD OF THE DAY CONTEST ENTRY
Since December 7, 2004, Hamid Car-Czar has been President of Afghanistan.
Veto (172)-
I think John is a dwarf.
“Parental effects dwarf all other effects combined.”
#174
“Household Equity Percentage over time”
that is an interesting chart. if I remember correctly, there was a large jump in the value of U.S. residential real estate in the 1950s as the suburbs of major cities became developed and the baby boom occurred. Not surprising that percent of equity moderated after this one time event. The decline from the 1980s onward i think can be explained by the rise of the consumer credit era, in which it became culturally acceptable to have higher and higher levels of debt. I think we are now witnessing the ultimate outcome of that cultural shift (it was unsustainable and irresponsible)
how hot is the girl on CNBC with short brown hair? im not familiar with her at the lunchtime hour.
if anyone’s watching, she is wearing a brown jacket and always has her head tilted a bit, for what reason, i do not know.
maybe her name is rebecca?
seriously, if i see another “priced to sell” sign i’m going to flip. what was it priced earlier? “priced to rip you off”?!
Repricings today. Looks like the initial Treasury actions are beginning to drive down rates.
Just locked an FHA refi @ 5.125%.
Congrats I had to pay 5.25.
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — The Treasury on Thursday sold nearly $16 billion of 10-year bonds at a high yield at 2.67%, the lowest-yield ever offered by the government in an auction. The bid to cover ratio stood at 2.44, an indication of firm demand. In the bond market, benchmark 10-year bonds rose, sending the yields on 10-year bonds down 4 basis point to 2.643%.
#179
rebecca jarvis. former Apprentice contestant
Clot,
Can you please re-post the new 3x commdities ETF’s that you posted the other day.
I’m having a feeling that the coming inflation is around the corner and there is no way Gold to OIl ration is gonna stay at 20.
160.
We Americans are boot strappers and opportunists. Our rebellion will take the form of crime (both organized and sole proprietor) for profit, none of this sissy leftist tripe.
Any one read Mish’s blog today?
has some interesting chart showing money supply patterns on a historical basis.
http://tinyurl.com/d8q6j
Make,
Look at MIsh’s post i linked to at 186, we are still well into deflation and will likely be so for the next 2 years. Hyperinflation is unlikely while the banks are hoarding any cash being printed by the government.
One they open up its a different story, but until the banks start to come clean on loses and stop hoarding money we will see the deflationary trend continue.
Besides, Bergabe needs congress to authorize him to issue FED debt before he is read for inflation. How else does he avoid a collapse of the dollar?
#179
Holy hell, she is beautiful
Who posted the article the other day about chinese buying RE in the US???? Nice try
Falling apart
Just how worrying are the figures, published on Wednesday December 10th, showing that China’s exports and imports plunged in November? Exports fell by 2.2% last month from a year ago; imports plummeted by an astonishing 17.9%. One analyst sums up the news as “a shock figure”. The gloom is spread all over the place. Exports dropped across all big traded goods and all parts of the world. Exports to America fell by 6.1%; those to the ASEAN countries, which had grown by 21.5% in October, fell by 2.4%. The faster decline in imports meant that China’s monthly trade surplus reached a record $40.1 billion. Exports last fell in 2001.
Such numbers would be nasty enough for any big economy, but they are particularly shocking because China’s racing trade has been an engine of world trade, and thus global growth. During the 1990s China’s exports grew at an annual average of 12.9%; from 2000 to 2006 that growth nearly doubled to 21.1% each year, according to the World Bank. China’s rapidly rising imports have also driven growth elsewhere. The chief economist of a Chinese bank calls the latest figures “horrifying”. The rapidity of the decline is as striking as its extent. Trade growth in October was similar to preceeding months; exports grew by more than 19% from a year earlier. A sudden drop in just a month has surprised even the most pessimistic economists. Some analysts point out that a global shortage of trade finance in November may have exaggerated the decline, but the Chinese juggernaut is definitely stumbling.
The consequences for the Chinese economy, which has seen dizzying rates of growth since economic reforms began in 1978 (growth in the 1990s averaged 10.5%), could now be dire. The figures for China show it to be particularly dependent on exports: 40% of its GDP came from exports in 2006, compared with 11% for highly open America and 29% for Britain. Thus the potential for a drop in exports to drag down China’s growth is correspondingly greater.
Chinese workers, who are already restive, may find the new year increasingly difficult. Labour disputes almost doubled in the first ten months of 2008 and sacked workers from closed toy factories rioted. If export growth ceases entirely, and jobs are threatened, social responses could be more severe. An estimated 130m people have moved from the countryside to the cities, many for jobs in factories that make goods for export. Zhang Ping, the country’s top planner, has given warning of the risk of social instability arising from massive unemployment. The latest trade figures also worsen the already gloomy outlook for the rest of the world. Some were counting on China to prop up the global economy, as much of the rich world falls into recession. Merrill Lynch had expected China to contribute 60% of global growth in 2009. But the dramatic fall in imports suggest that the Chinese can not be relied on to be the consumer of last resort.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs expect several more months of shrinking exports. Speculation that China will devalue its currency is rife, but this would have little effect if world demand is simply collapsing. The experience of South Korea is instructive: its currency has fallen by a third against the dollar this year, but this did not prevent its exports from dropping by 18.3% in November, compared with a year ago. Unfortunately, this may not be enough to deter the Chinese government from trying to push down the yuan, which has appreciated significantly on a trade-weighted basis. Fiscal stimulus is much more important; efforts to boost domestic demand would help both China and the world. Most analysts expect announcements about new measures on top of the $586 billion package already announced. Interest rates and taxes are likely to be cut further.
http://www.economist.com/finance/displayStory.cfm?story_id=12758009&source=features_box_main
From the Star Ledger:
Essex County to eliminate 150 positions
Essex County Executive Joseph DiVincenzo Jr. today said 43 union employees will be laid off as part of an initiative to eliminate 150 positions.
The budget-cutting, unveiled at a morning news conference at the Hall of Records, includes a freeze on hiring and promotions, the elimination of re-imbursements for travel, and a pledge that DiVincenzo and his staff will forgo any pay raises in the coming two years.
“Very, very tough decisions,” DiVincenzo said just a week after warning that layoffs were imminent as he unveiled a $691 million budget.
The job cuts will come by laying off 43 employees, primarily in parks and public works, terminating five non-union staffers, and not filling 40 vacant positions and 76 seasonal park employees. Essex County employs 3,465 people.
“We’re going to get through this,” DiVincenco said. “It’s about everyone sharing the responsibility. … We don’t want to have a massive layoff and put more people on unemployment and have a bigger problem.”
what is her name?
WASHINGTON – Deadlocked over the risks of long-acting asthma drugs, government health officials Wednesday asked outside advisers if four medications used by millions of patients should remain on the market.
An unusually large panel of some 30 medical and scientific advisers will vote Thursday on whether the risks of the drugs_Advair, Foradil, Serevent and Symbicort_ outweigh the benefits. The Food and Drug Administration, whose own scientists are at odds, sought the advice in making a final decision.
Kettle 187,
I know it’s only a week but I have a hunch that thsi commodities rally could be here to stay and I want a peace of this.
http://weblogs.newsday.com/realestate/blog/rich_cribs/
make,
I think we could see an extended rally, so i dont disagree with you on that point (S&P 1200/1100?), just on the point of inflation/deflation.
In regards to commodities, you would expect them to go up through the deflationary cycle, although that may not be obvious at first with all the hedge fund money unwinding
Where do you think we’ll be at, this time next year?
Better or worse?
I think we need to jump start new industries like wind power and solar, and get back on track with broadband, biotech, and so on.
And we’re so far behind right now it will take a while to create new industries and new jobs. At least 2, 3 years, and probably, longer.
Expected more commentary on Household Equity falling to 44.7%. IMHO, I believe this is the lowest ever recorded.
Banks own more of America’s homes than their residents do.
44.7% is a staggering number.
Grim, don’t worry with mortgages hard to come by and with T-bills and CDs so low when we all get our big bonuses in Jan we can just all pay off our mortgages instead of leasing another 7 series and buying a weekend place.
Grim,
would the equity figures be a shock to any of your blog regulars? We have discussed our debt issue in many forms. Its just another confirmation
Fed purchasing more agency paper tomorrow.
http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/pomo/display/index.cfm?fuseaction=preannouncements
Fed purchased $5b in agency paper last Friday.
“Where do you think we’ll be at, this time next year?
Better or worse?”
I think the situation will be better overall because the problems are coming out in the open now and they are being dealt with (even if not perfectly). 2009 is going to be rough but this has to happen.
3175 Veto:Port Auth couldnt even sell their 3 year $300 mill notes last week. they had to pull it from the market. no buyers in sight.
I noted this last week. And I can you tell that as a former muni bond guy in all the years that I was in the busienss, that has never happended with Port Auth debt.
Grim,
as you have so aptly stated….. We are all subprime
A comment from my friend Eileen after I had emailed her the “news” about KB toys :
EILEEN sez:
“The KB Toys store in Englewood closed immediately after Christmas last year, so I question if their problems are as simple as they claim, and certainly not so “sudden”. The economic crisis had not really hit home yet when their difficulties began, so I think their real problem may have stemmed from the fact that they were not able to compete with the big fish (Target and Wal-Mart). Having been in that store on several occasions, I can say I usually bought nothing because I realized I could purchase the same items cheaper at the big stores. Commander Bob probably thinks that makes me one of the villains who killed BK Toys. Not so! Bad economy or not, merchants have to figure out how to stay competitive. If they’re not, under they go. Think of all the stores that have come and gone in our lifetimes. F W Woolworth’s, McCrory’s, E J Korvette’s, Alexander’s, Caldor’s, Two Guys, and when was the last time you thought about John’s Bargain Store? The the theory of evolution at work!”
COMMANDERBOB/& EILEEN
Next year?
Probably waiting in a soup line unemployed like everyone else on the board.
From the WSJ:
Merrill, BofA Begin Research Layoffs
Merrill Lynch & Co. and Bank of America Corp. on Thursday began laying off employees in their U.S. equity-research departments.
The goal, according to people familiar with the situation at both firms, is to integrate the two research teams and decide who the senior analysts will be. As a result, some analysts got pink slips on Thursday morning.
It wasn’t known early Thursday how many employees would be laid off.
10,000 mirrors
http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200812/fallows-chinese-banker
How fitting, CareerBuilder lays off 300
HEHEH
NJREReport Soup Kitchen locator?
EFFECTIVE January 2nd 2009
NEW OFFICE POLICY
Dress Code:
1) You are advised to come to work dressed according to your salary.
2) If we see you wearing Prada shoes and carrying a Gucci bag, we will assume you are doing well financially and therefore do not need a raise.
3) If you dress poorly, you need to learn to manage your money better, so that you may buy nicer clothes, and therefore you do not need a raise.
4) If you dress just right, you are right where you need to be and therefore you do not need a raise.
Sick Days:
We will no longer accept a doctor’s statement as proof of sickness. If you are able to go to the doctor, you are able to come to work.
Casual Days:
Each employee will receive 104 casual days a year. They are called Saturdays & Sundays.
Bathroom Breaks:
Entirely too much time is being spent in the toilet. There is now a strict three-minute time limit in the stalls. At the end of three minutes, an alarm will sound, the toilet paper roll will retract, the stall door will open, and a picture will be taken. After your second offense, your picture will be posted on the company bulletin board under the ‘Chronic Offenders’ category. Anyone caught smiling in the picture will be sectioned under the company’s mental health policy.
Lunch Break: (Love this one)
* Skinny people get 30 minutes for lunch, as they need to eat more, so that they can look healthy.
* Normal size people get 15 minutes for lunch to get a balanced meal to maintain their average figure.
* Chubby people get 5 minutes for lunch, because that’s all the time needed to drink a Slim-Fast.
Thank you for your loyalty to our company. We are here to provide a positive employment experience. Therefore, all questions, comments, concerns, complaints, frustrations, irritations, aggravations, insinuations, allegations, accusations, contemplations, consternation and input should be directed elsewhere
3B so what do you make of this crazy muni market? With CDs and Tbills headed to near zero you would think retail demand would pick up, I know market makers are thin and muni bond desks don’t want to hold inventory but 20 year A rated insured tax NY bonds going for around 6.5% while taxable treasuries of same maturity is going for 2.5% is not sustainable. It is pricing in the greatest depression ever. I almost feel in 2009 once tax related loss selling dries up, banks want to put their free govt money and bond investors are between a rock and a hard place with 1% money markets that buying will pick up but that was the case with 30 year munis at 5, 30 years munis at 6 and 30 years munis at 6.5 yet the yields keep rising. Somewhere when 30 years munis are between 7-8% it is hard not to imagine a rush into munis, but yet nothing makes sense anymore.
3b Says:
December 11th, 2008 at 2:33 pm
3175 Veto:Port Auth couldnt even sell their 3 year $300 mill notes last week. they had to pull it from the market. no buyers in sight.
I noted this last week. And I can you tell that as a former muni bond guy in all the years that I was in the busienss, that has never happended with Port Auth debt.
How is this for sick?
The President-elect of a major professional organization of which I am a member got sacked. He approached me at a meeting, and I figured he wanted to guage my interest about working on a committee. Instead, he told me his last day is Friday next week, and he wanted to know whether my firm was hiring. %UCK ME!????!!!!!!
make (184)-
A fast glance at 3x ETFs:
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/11/3x-exchange-tra.html
Grim/197-
Yes and no. Seems more of sea change in mentality over the last fifty years about debt and how banks loan money. From what I’ve heard talking to older folks about buying houses (anything for that matter), you basically had to have enough cash as collateral to get a loan from the bank.
It just seems to have accelerated over the last 10-15 years with the explosion of securities backed by the debt homeowners took on. There were many incentives for banks to do questionable lending just to turn it around and start the strips/securities/CDS/packaging craziness.
Once the dust has settled, let’s hope the sea changes the other way.
make (193)-
Down, boy.
Something will happen that will further drive the world to the USD has some sort of safe haven.
Which is sort of akin to running to a r@pist’s house in order to avoid a p#doph!le.
make (193)-
200 bn of redemptions piled up at hedge funds- plus mutual funds getting blitzed- doesn’t help either.
It won’t take that long. I’m chafing right now because my ass is in a sling. That’s not right and I’m really angry about that. Many real estate investors feel the same way. The damn rug was swiped from right under our feet just as many of us were taking out cash to buy some more real estate. YOU DON’T DO THAT TO PEOPLE AND IT’S UNFAIR. I repeat, someone had better see to it that the damn credit spigots are turned back on and that real estate values are restored back to where they were. There is a lot of boiling resentment in the ranks of real estate investors and many are raady for revolution. It won’t take much more to set off the smouldering tinderbox of real estate investors that have been jerked around.
Guess what?? THE REVOLUTION WILL NOT BE TELEVISED.
# 169- the crazy man in the corner Says:
December 11th, 2008 at 12:38 pm
i would give it until at least late summer before any insurrection type action takes place
scribe (196)-
Worse. Much worse.
The first food riots should begin around the time the weather starts getting cold.
who took my mustard seeds?
John (211)-
The fixed income market is trying, rather loudly, to tell you something.
Are you listening?
John (219)-
The f#^*ing Grinch did. Deal with it.
chi (212)-
Hope he likes peanut butter.
tard (217)-
Sounds more to me like somebody saved you from yourself.
“The damn rug was swiped from right under our feet just as many of us were taking out cash to buy some more real estate.”
“There is a lot of boiling resentment in the ranks of real estate investors and many are raady for revolution. It won’t take much more to set off the smouldering tinderbox of real estate investors that have been jerked around.”
Please… your average real estate investor is some yuppie that is obsessed with marble sinks and granite counter tops. The only thing they are good at is looking at Kitchen Remodeling Catalogs. I couldn’t imagine an easier civil uprising to put down. What are you going to do? Use your feather duster as a weapon? I sure as hell know you don’t have a wrench or even a pitchfork because you hire landscapers do all your yardwork.
remember when the high end was immune?
********
“Neiman Marcus’ quarterly profit plunged 84 percent as well-heeled shoppers clamped down on purchases of designer clothes, shoes and handbags.”
http://www.nypost.com/seven/12112008/business/neimans_numbers_go_numb_143666.htm
heh, my brother works at Shop Rite. He was sick last week and they asked him for a doctor’s note. I told him to ask his boss for the hall pass next time he has to go to the bathroom. It’s going to be hilarious when he brings them a note from my father who is a physician.
No, Radical, that’s not true. Preventing me from investing in real estste is what spawned all of the problems.
Clotpoll Says:
December 11th, 2008 at 3:20 pm
tard (217)-
Sounds more to me like somebody saved you from yourself.
“No, Radical, that’s not true. Preventing me from investing in real estste is what spawned all of the problems.”
Well, be a national hero. Come up with a new pyramid scheme for the nation to invest in to get us out of this mess.
“remember when the high end was immune?”
I remember taking a girl down to Canal Street about 7 years ago. She couldn’t believe her eyes. Counterfeit bags for pennies on the dollar and no one would ever know. I wonder how Canal Street is doing now. Haven’t been there in ages.
tard (227)-
Just wait a few weeks. Then, you’ll be able to get a nice commercial loan at under 5%.
As long as you have a 30% DP and a FICO over 740.
Good luck.
Looks like SRS is a rocket from the crypt right now.
Hang in there, Vic.
I hope you keep underestimating us. One of these days, we’ll wipe that crooked little smile off your face. We don’t need any damn wrenches and pitchforks to do what we have to do. All we need is our voices and bodies to raise some hell. Terrorists like you have interfered with our damn way of life and we don’t take too kindly to that.
You know what? I suggest that you watch where the hell you go today. I’d hate to see you run into a couple of real rstate investors.
Ben Says:
December 11th, 2008 at 3:22 pm
Please… your average real estate investor is some yuppie that is obsessed with marble sinks and granite counter tops. The only thing they are good at is looking at Kitchen Remodeling Catalogs. I couldn’t imagine an easier civil uprising to put down. What are you going to do? Use your feather duster as a weapon? I sure as hell know you don’t have a wrench or even a pitchfork because you hire landscapers do all your yardwork
re101 (217) -
don’t take this the wrong way, but the re-investors (and i stress INVESTORS) who got burned are far and few between. that group (meaning you) would not be able to start enough of an uprising for anyone to care.
the people on the low-end who were not investors, but rather people who wanted a house, but should never have been able to buy one.. that is whole different ball game – there is alot of those people, but I think I’d be able to hold at least 50-100k of those off before i ran out of ammo.
That’s not going to help me or my crew. All that’s going to do is frustrate us and, believe me, you don’t want us to be frustrated because all that does is make us angry. We’re not nice when we’re angry.
We need 100 year loans, just like they did in Japan. We need the values back to where they were. We need excess supply bulldozed, dammit. If we don’t get that there’s gonna be hell to pay.
I am in earnest and I will be heard. Ignore us at your peril.
Clotpoll Says:
December 11th, 2008 at 3:38 pm
tard (227)-
Just wait a few weeks. Then, you’ll be able to get a nice commercial loan at under 5%.
As long as you have a 30% DP and a FICO over 740.
Good luck.
Not to break the doom and gloom, but I’m doing OK over here, business-wise…
Sales are even, and we are working harder to make the same numbers, but they are being made.
Previously, clients would say “just do it”.
Now, they ask how much will it cost first… we have to generate more proposals, but we’re still booked every day wiht a slight backlog.
The backlog has been longer in the past, but we (gasp!) just added an additional person in Aug.
Also, we changed our healthcare policy from Aetna to BCBS and bought a better policy (lower co-pays, no referrals) and still have no employee contributions. (although I teetered on that just recently, but I held back…!)
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/12/fed-household-percent-equity-cliff.html
So let me see if I understand this.
Banks loan Americans a lot of money with housing as a colateral. Americans borrow to consume and vacation. Americans default on their debt. on the verge of going bankrupt BANKS get acquired by our “royal” biger banks.
Underlying problem of Americans not being able to climb out their debts is still not fixed and “Royal” banks on the verge of going bankrupt get BAILED out by Washington(America’s kids).
Underlying problem of broke americans remain. Where will this end?
clot (230) -
you mean, sound financial footing?
stop trying to make sense.
RE 101 – Get those pitchforks and give it to the commie clotpoll, he is the one in the tweed jacket driving a volvo wangon with a pipe and a tweed jacket with patches on his sleeves.
btw, i noticed the IBM bond is paying at 8.375% ??
wow.
I say bring back the grandchildren Jap loans of the 1990s, don’t let the mortgage holder off the hook as long as you can stick it to his kids and unborn grandchildren.
reinvestor101 Says:
December 11th, 2008 at 3:48 pm
That’s not going to help me or my crew. All that’s going to do is frustrate us and, believe me, you don’t want us to be frustrated because all that does is make us angry. We’re not nice when we’re angry.
We need 100 year loans, just like they did in Japan. We need the values back to where they were. We need excess supply bulldozed, dammit. If we don’t get that there’s gonna be hell to pay.
Even crazier 5 year, cablevision and amerprise senior bonds are trading at 15% right now.
the crazy man in the corner Says:
December 11th, 2008 at 3:50 pm
btw, i noticed the IBM bond is paying at 8.375% ??
wow.
We need 100 year loans, just like they did in Japan. We need the values back to where they were. We need excess supply bulldozed, dammit. If we don’t get that there’s gonna be hell to pay.
Hey wat stops you?? Just buy all thouse excess houses and buldoze them yourself.
Anyways Read what REAL RE-investors think:
http://www.biggerpockets.com/forums/99
REAL investors want as little govermwent intervention as possible. You are just looking for somebody to give you money.
Well, unless you are Banker or CEO you are out of luck..
[233] crazy man
Use .22 cal for covering fire. Far cheaper and just as effective at keeping heads down. Save the 9s for in-close work. For back-up, my vantage-point perched “god” will have a .223 with scope for keeping the in-close crowd small.
I don’t plan to go to Kettle’s 10K count. I figure 3,500 is plenty across all calibers. Much of that is at the family sanctuary in Maine, safe from the clutches of Corzine and Milgram.
John (241) -
i just noticed that also, 15%??!!
thats an incredible deal.
You know what John, I think you’re right on that. That’s a perfect disguise for someone like Clod who is in fact a commie inspired terrorist.
Look at how he planted himself in the real estate business so he could upend the markets on the front lines of battle. He alone has done more to steal real estate values then anyone here.
The man needs to be detained for questioning.
John Says:
December 11th, 2008 at 3:49 pm
RE 101 – Get those pitchforks and give it to the commie clotpoll, he is the one in the tweed jacket driving a volvo wangon with a pipe and a tweed jacket with patches on his sleeves.
AMERIPRISE FINL INC SR NT 5.35000% 11/15/2010
Basic Analytics
Price (Ask) 86.380
Yield to Worst (Ask) 13.669%
comrade [243] -
don’t disagree, although im not a big fan of 9mm, i carry either .40s&w or .45acp as my sidearm.
and, my “god” is a barrett M82A1 and a HK PSG-1 (which is actually portable, unlike the 82A1 which I use for long range competitions)
“I hope you keep underestimating us. One of these days, we’ll wipe that crooked little smile off your face. We don’t need any damn wrenches and pitchforks to do what we have to do. All we need is our voices and bodies to raise some hell. Terrorists like you have interfered with our damn way of life and we don’t take too kindly to that.
You know what? I suggest that you watch where the hell you go today. I’d hate to see you run into a couple of real rstate investors. ”
Rofl, there’s no way you are the real Reinvestor101. This is great comedy though.
Third party price is 82.5 on this one I bet you could get it for a bid of 82, which gets you to 15%
CABLEVISION SYS CORP SR NT 8.00000% 04/15/2012
Basic Analytics
Price (Ask) 84.000
Yield to Worst (Ask) 14.181%
Yield to Maturity 14.180998%
Third Party Price 82.500
What the hell is wrong with someone giving me some damn money? Do you work for free or are you getting paid? How in the hell do you expect me to get by without any damn money? I gotta get it from somewhere and it might as well be real estate related.
I do want to bulldoze the excess supply, but someone needs to pay for that.
Al Says:
December 11th, 2008 at 3:53 pm
We need 100 year loans, just like they did in Japan. We need the values back to where they were. We need excess supply bulldozed, dammit. If we don’t get that there’s gonna be hell to pay.
Hey wat stops you?? Just buy all thouse excess houses and buldoze them yourself.
Anyways Read what REAL RE-investors think:
http://www.biggerpockets.com/forums/99
REAL investors want as little govermwent intervention as possible. You are just looking for somebody to give you money.
Well, unless you are Banker or CEO you are out of luck..
[235] spam,
I too am busy, and I feel quite fortunate about that. My clients have been giving me a lot of work, which will undoubtedly dry up by year end, but with the new administration, I expect a steady flow of work in 2009, mostly terminating pension plans and rolling muni debt forward to infinity and beyond.
john (246) -
although, i noticed that sears bonds were at close to 28%, thats just rediculous.
FORD MTR CO DEL DEB 7.50000% 08/01/2026
Basic Analytics
Price (Ask) 20.000
Yield to Worst (Ask) 37.726%
On the 11th day of Christmas my true love gave to meeeee…
26 empty Kay Bees
32 shuttered Tee Dees
12 despot Depots
and aaaaa… oh nevermind.
(KB closing 26 NJ stores, TD Banknorth shutting 32, Office Depot to close 12)
Here again with the accusations of me not being real. I’m as real as a damn heart attack and as real as the knuckle sandwich you may encounter if you run into a couple of real estate investors who want to meet you. Don’t be surprised to see a car pulling alowly up to the curb as you walk down the street today.
#249-Ben
Rofl, there’s no way you are the real Reinvestor101. This is great comedy though
Nom,
I like to diversify my metals portfolio
.308
.22lr
.223
.40S&W
12ga
comrade (251) -
on the other hand, for all of us risk management types, all this turmoil has undoubtly given us an inordinate amount of work!
i have so much work that i actually am running out of staff to do it!
[247] crazy
I am an admitted lightweight compared to you and Kettle (and maybe SAS).
Perhaps a 2AD GTG is in order some weekend; there is a dirt cheap range (outdoor) in Bucks, just outside Lahaska. Full service (pistol, rifle and skeet).
Crazy Man, stick to seniors and stick to ones that worst case you will get a few coupon payments out of. With a senior you might get back 40-70 cents in bankruptcy and as long as you hit three coupon payments you are cool. Almost tempted to pay 1,000 for that 5K Ford bond as a dice roll.
(175) Veto:Port Auth couldnt even sell their 3 year $300 mill notes, no buyers in sight.
(305) 3b Says:
December 11th, 2008 at 2:33 pm
as a former muni bond guy, that has never happended with Port Auth debt.
I’ve only got about ten years in muni banking but enough to know that munis yielding 180% of treasuries is not right. All the underwriters at all the big banks that ive heard from have never seen anything close to this… 35 year veteran underwriters giving market updates with shaky voices looking like they just saw a ghost. life will be mundane after we get past this.
kettle (256) -
a fellow metal collector ;)
.22LR
.223
.50
.40S&W
.45ACP
10ga
12ga
although, my friend just introduced me to his saiga-12, and i think i may buy one.
Also Crazy Man, 7% tax free AMT free NJ zeros at a price of 15. I have not seen 7% A rated NJ AMT free bonds since the early 90s.
NEW JERSEY ST TRANSN TR FD AUTH TRANS SYS 00.00000% 12/15/2035 BDS SER. 2008 A
Basic Analytics
Price (Ask) 15.606
Yield to Worst (Ask) 7.000%
John (259) -
totally agree – i was looking at something a bit stable to park some cash in for a year or so – there was a goldman sachs note going at 8.168 ..
*GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC 5.15000% 01/15/2014 SR NT 5.150 01/15/2014 AA3 AA- 84.652
87.647 8.976
8.168
john (262) -
isn’t that for the transportation fund or whatever? i don’t know if i want to buy into that bond knowing that states may choose to default in short order.
[261] crazy
I am sooo f*cking outgunned. About the only way I can compete with you guys is on skills, certainly not on hardware.
I am feeding the troll:
reinvestor101 Says:
December 11th, 2008 at 4:01 pm
What the hell is wrong with someone giving me some damn money?
Whats wrong with somebody giving me
Some damn money?? Why you?? You no better than me. (in fact I like myself better)
Do you work for free or are you getting paid? How in the hell do you expect me to get by without any damn money?
Get a job – Wal-Mart is hiring.
I gotta get it from somewhere and it might as well be real estate related.
Ask Clot for a job – he makes his money from real estate and he does not ask for moeny…
You can also clean real estate, paint it, and do lanscaping be an electrician handyman, builder – there s a lot of ways.
Even investors make money – just you are lousy at investing I guess, otherwise you would not be asking for money.
I do want to bulldoze the excess supply, but someone needs to pay for that.
Well since you want to buldoze it you going to have to pay for it.
#255 – re – you run into a couple of real estate investors who want to meet you. Don’t be surprised to see a car pulling alowly up to the curb as you walk down the street today
Threatened by a car-load of Casey Serins?
Wow, what would they do? Pick my pocket after I fell down laughing at them?
Crazy,
what range (distance) do you compete at with the M82?
comrade [265] –
skills is definately way more important than weapon, but you should have the proper tool for the job as my old shooting instructor used to say. ;)
Nom,
skill is what wins the day, not who has the biggest ;) muscle memory is the key
.22LR – Browning Buck Mark
9mm – Sig P226 Blackwater Edition (yes, *THAT* Blackwater)
.40SW – Sig P229 Equinox
kettle (268) -
from 1km+
my friend has a Cheytac M-200 (he’s on the teams) which I’ve shot also .. its a .408 CheyTac round – supposedly good for up to 2.3km or so.
the best is when he showed me the original brochure he got .. it said:
for the long range soft target interdiction
i almost spit out my beer
New Jersey Bond and Gun Club
crazy
for the long range soft target interdiction
if you want to turn the target inside out…..
John Says:
December 11th, 2008 at 4:10 pm
Also Crazy Man, 7% tax free AMT free NJ zeros at a price of 15. I have not seen 7% A rated NJ AMT free bonds since the early 90s.
NEW JERSEY ST TRANSN TR FD AUTH TRANS SYS 00.00000% 12/15/2035 BDS SER. 2008 A
Basic Analytics
Price (Ask) 15.606
Yield to Worst (Ask) 7.000%
JJ: I have some holders of the 2024 & 2026 versions of these zeros. What is your opinion of them?
Crazy don’t know much about NJ but you don’t see 7% unless they are junk so that is unusual, GS is safe until their FDIC bonds mature, I think they just issued them and govt won’t let them go bankrupt until after bond matures, so don’t buy GS further out then the longest maturity GS FDIC bond unless you are getting some extra income. If you want safe, try a prerefunded NJ Muni, prerefunded is just as safe as a treasury as bond fund has put treasuries in escrow for payment, but for some reason they are trading at much higher yields than the underlying treasury and interest it tax free. Crazy stuff.
grim (271) -
so you got roped into buying the extra grips for markup? lol
i have a USP Expert and now a HK45 as my primary sidearm
kettle (274) -
exactly.
i read it .. im said to myself:
uhh… why doesn’t it just say, anti-personnel
I wonder how long before they do a HMMV mounted rail gun sniper/Anti-tank round. The recent navy tests show serious performance even if the number of shots is very limited. Talk about range! Over the horizon targeting? and you get a kinetic kill impactor with that much energy
Too late to sell too early to buy, they will get killed on the spreads if they try to get out. Whole Muni market is frozen till January. I don’t get that we have deflation worries yet z coupons are falling in value, in deflation and falling interest rates z coupons should be the cats pajamas
JJ: I have some holders of the 2024 & 2026 versions of these zeros. What is your opinion of them?
John (276) -
i was wondering what those prerefunded were.. will have to examine that more.
and yes, about GS i totally agree – i was looking for something within the 2014-2017 range… pretty safe.
Ken Lewis exercising a kinder, gentler machine gun hand.
Bonds are hot!!! Actually we have a lot of quasi interest bearing z coupons floating around which should be an oxymoron. But plenty of long term bonds are trading at 80 cents on a dollar which gives you the coupon and the z coupon aspect all in one. Weird.
Bernie Madoff arrested by FBI and accused of running Ponzi scheme.
kettle (279) -
issue with railguns is that they can’t get something small enough (due to power requirements) to mount on a medium size vehicle.
last railgun i heard about was the naval one to change out the big guns on destroyers, etc.
imagine being able to put 7-10″ shells (upwards of 5-8 kg projectiles) being thrown at 8km/s .. a bit rediculous, if you ask me.
Crazy that is why prerefunded pay less interest, you are taking on zero state risk. In a pre-refunded case the state or town had the funds a few years before the call date or maturity to pay off the bonds. What they do is lets say buy treasury that matures the same year and month with the same interest paymtent as the muni and put it in escrow to be paid to the muni bond holders every interest payment and upon maturity. They should trade close to treasuries but since market is insane prerefunded issues are free money, you are getting extra yield for no extra risk.
john (283) -
i must have to assume that bond traders must be really busy right now, but two of my friends who are in bond trading told me that they were incredibly slow.
From MarketWatch:
Bank of America to cut 30,000 to 35,000 jobs
Bank of America job cuts to occur over 3 years
B of A cuts to eliminate Merrill Lynch redundancies
Good God Jon, you really shat all over your campaign promises, now didn’t you.
From the Star Ledger:
Senate panel OKs Corzine plan allowing towns to skip pension payments
ov. Jon Corzine’s plan to allow local governments skip about half of the $1.1 billion in pension payments next year to avoid a big surge in property taxes cleared the Senate budget committee today, but a key lawmaker said she could not predict whether it will have enough votes to pass in the full Senate.
Crazy if they were busy you and I would not be picking up bargains laying in the discount rack. Problem with corporate bonds and munis is that for the time being they are like the Roach Motel where Roaches check in but they can’t check out. But if your time frame is 2-5 year markets move back to normal and you will be rewarded.
Grim (288)
BOA to get rid of all the high paid Merrill employees!
Since we are in a muni-bond discussion frenzy, I could really use some advice.
I (foolishly) put some money into Oppenheimer NJ Municipal C (ONJCX) back when it was trading near its highs last year. I am down over 40% on my investment. To make matters worse, I was going to put this money into a CD for safety since it was down payment money.
When it started to tank, my (worthless) investment advisor said it was because banks and hedge funds were having to sell off whatever they had including their bonds. Every 5% of loss I kept thinking ‘maybe I should take the hit and just get out’. I kick myself everyday and wish I had just bought bonds straight up rather than this piece of dreck but it is what it is.
So, those of you with muni knowledge, does this thing ever turn around or do I stop my crying and just eat the loss? I don’t fully understand why it continues to plummet unless the thinking is that NJ and its Authorities won’t have any taxpayers left to pay off the bonds.
I am as interested in understanding why it continues its downward spiral (explain it to me like I am a six year old) as I am in hold/sell guidance. ALL DISCLAIMERS to anyone who offers a few pointers of course. I never want to repeat this dumb mistake.
john (291) -
thats exactly what my friend was saying also, he said that i’d probably have a better chance making money sports gambling at the moment ;)
seneca (293) -
having not examine the onjcx specifics, do you happen to know if its NJ only or is it mostly NJ or ..?
From MarketWatch:
Bernard Madoff arrested over alleged Ponzi scheme: WSJ
Bernard Madoff, who founded Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities, was arrested by Federal Bureau of Investigation agents on alleged fraud, The Wall Street Journal reported late Thursday on its Web site. Charges against Madoff allege that he told senior employees on Wednesday that the firm was “a giant Ponzi scheme” after trying to distribute the “couple of hundred million dollars” he had left before turning himself in, according to the Journal, citing a person familiar with the matter. The alleged scheme involved tens of billions of dollars, the newspaper reported.
grim –
i believe it was on the asset management side
Wow ONJCX went from 10 to 7 in 90 days. I don’t know that particular fund, but for the most part funds are being forced to sell in a down market causing munis to fall even further, several funds are allowed to enhance returns through derivatives or borrowed money which magnifies loss and finally longer term and lower rated munis got hit the hardest. Some closed ended funds got hit even harder and to boot trade below NAV. Other than selling enough to take a 3K tax loss you can write off there is not much you can do. I am hoping for a 75bp rate cut next week and ye tax selling to stop soon. Even if the market continues down selling munis the rest of december will be very hard, there is not liquidity in market and more sellers than buyers. I would try to get out mid January of some of it. Trouble is with a muni bond you know at maturity you get it all back, but with a fund you don’t always know what they are doing and they are charging fees.
NAV 6.86
Change -0.13
% Change -1.86%
Previous NAV 6.99
Previous NAV Date 12/09/2008
Definite trend with the FBI re-focusing on white collar crime vs. terrorism.
2 governors … now this …what’s next?
I prefer a Weatherby 300 Mag with B&L scope for keeping them out of the house, a Ruger 44 Mag once they get in. Mrs Confused prefers a Marlin .22LR, less noise and recoil.
crazy (295)
“mainly” (almost 90%) in NJ muni securities. It can invest up to 25% in junk.
Largest holdings are in Tobacco Settlements.
GM May Lose 40% of US Dealers in GMAC Bankruptcy
there are so many dealers on the edge, if GMAC goes out of business 30 to 40 percent of dealers won’t be able to get financing from anywhere else.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aFOJZrQ21D.U&refer=us
Wow out of 45 NJ bonds in 2008 that is ranked second to last at 44
That fund is 50% in B- to BBB bonds higher risk and has an average maturity of 18 years. Over the last ten year the fund is still ranked second to last and has a ten year return of .03%!!!!!
Lower rated and longer maturity bonds got hit the hardest the ones I own are way down, but I also own short term A rated bonds and they are actually up. This fund went all in one way and got burnt. Even crazier they have zero in cash, they kept no powder dry so they can’t even take advantage of buying opportunities.
The Fund seeks as high a level of current interest income exempt from federal and New Jersey income taxes for individual investors as is consistent with preservation of capital. The Fund invests mainly in New Jersey municipal securities that pay interest exempt from federal and
New Jersey individual income taxes.
confused (300) -
i have a benelli m4 as the household protection weapon
The muni bond market is finally seeing some of the extreme supply/demand imbalances that have beset most spread products in the taxable market in recent months
As a consequence, credit spreads have widened out sharply, and parts of the high-yield market have entered virtual free-fall, BBB hospital, for example, are out to a 9.75% yield, if you can get a bid at all
The Muni Market Data-line AAA/BBB spread is 210 basis points on long maturities, versus 87 basis points at the end of September
Indeed, there are now some corporate backed muni credits that at being priced to a higher yield than identical issues of the same corporation in the taxable market
In our view what is happening, instead, is forced selling by high yield funds and other holders of higher yielding paper, with bid side
In addition, the slope of the muni market continues to steepen to post-1984 records. The 1-30-year triple-A yield curve is now 445 basis points
Our bottom line conclusion: Munis away from specific troubled credits are extremely inexpensive, but it is going to take a while for the market to normalize. Yields are approaching or exceeding historical after-tax equity market returns, and the cost of staying in cash is becoming much more severe. These factors should ultimately lead to much stronger support, but it will take time
[272] grim
.38 Cobra (Det. special)
Makarov 9x18mm
Ruger 10-22
Glenfield 60 (22LR)
Ruger Mini-14
Geez, even Grim outguns me.
[302] 2010,
I don’t know of any commercial banks that are still lending for floorplanning, so I suspect you are right.
a shooter’s GTG is definitely in order. Wasn’t that proposed before?
Crazy (304) – Incredible weapon. My choice for home defense as well.
The FBI is going to be awfully busy if the market makers are playing ponzi games.
wag (309) -
yes, one of the best i’ve owned/used aside from my old franchi spas 12 (which i miss very much)
comrade (308) -
i dont recall if there was one proposed, but we should definately do something.
need to break out my hk45 for some time on the range.
do you really have a .38 cobra? is that like an ankle reserve weapon? lol
as an aside – for all you shotgun owners -
if you haven’t tried federal truball slugs yet, you’re missing out on alot.
Crazy, et al – anyone have any time behind the HK MK23?
wag -
i’ve fired the mk23, its a bit big.. no reason to get one – i’d suggest the USP tactical/combat comp or the HK45 (which i own, along with an expert)
Seneca Says:
“So, those of you with muni knowledge, do I stop my crying and just eat the loss?”
Seneca, john is spewing alot of good info, basically hitting the nail on the head.
Depending when you bought, you also most likely got hammered on all the bond insurance downgrades, and those aaa ratings are never coming back. you also have med/long maturities and lower credits which have plenty more downside risk. you should definately cut your losses. you could stick around to see if this whole mess clears up next year. There’s alot of money in treasuries that could come back into munis but if just one of these states or muni’s defaults in the meantime, alot of muni investors will freak, driving your investment down through the floor even further, good luck.
“Here again with the accusations of me not being real. I’m as real as a damn heart attack and as real as the knuckle sandwich you may encounter if you run into a couple of real estate investors who want to meet you. Don’t be surprised to see a car pulling alowly up to the curb as you walk down the street today.”
rofl, I live in a neighborhood that has had 3 driveby shootings in the past 2 years. I doubt you would even make it near my home without sticking out like a sore thumb.
philosophical question: lots of talk about “zombies” lately, and how one would protect oneself from them, on other forums i visit. while it’s partly just a fun thought exercise (the gasoline, the garden hose, and the cigarette lighter combo was my favorite), i wonder if it is, at some level, a “safe” way to vent our fears about dealing with the hungry mob violence some of us envision. easier to say “zombie” that “hungry heloc’d hipster”… (5 times fast!)
(they exist. i have recently met one. i am trying to unmeet him as quickly as possible.)
the wal-mart stampede was quite zombie-esque
236, spam:
njrreport won’t meet at the soup kitchen next year. we’ll all come work for you! ;)
I have a street nearby that looks like the Thriller video after 7pm nightly.
alia, barb
here you go
http://tinyurl.com/2v87qv
bar, alia,
original link
http://tinyurl.com/3cd8kh
road trip for the shooter gtg
http://www.machinegunshoot.com/
I usually head over to poach the odd brutha…in between rolls in the sack with geriatric bankers.
# HEHEHE Says:
December 10th, 2008 at 2:45 pm
Yikes,
Why do you ask?
a friend thinks SSO and SDS could be the new SKF/SRS in terms of rapid rises/declines
yet another reason why NJ is on its way to bankruptcy.
(sorry, still catching up from yesterday)
CBS News with a huge report (650 pm) on how loan modifications are NOT working.
next up: Lenders must reduce principle, or the worst will continue.
that will completely F everything up. anyone out there on the frontlines … do you see this happening?
Wow! According to regulatory filings, the Madoff firm had more than $17 billion in assets under management as of the beginning of 2008. It appears that virtually all assets of the advisory business are missing.
http://www.sec.gov/news/press/2008/2008-293.htm
328/Sean-
Looks bad…Wonder what kind of positions he might have still had with that little left in cash?
Just from my scant knowledge of firms like this, probably not too many employees in this area affected. More curious who the biggest institutional holders and individual holders were?
Guess we’ll find out tomorrow in the WSJ, etc.
Wow, what a week for scandals/frauds!
[311] crazy
Yes, I have one, very old, with stag handles (for real). A bit big for ankle-wearing though.
yikes (327)-
No. Unless these dolts want to destroy the housing market for the next 40 years.
grim Says:
December 11th, 2008 at 8:32 am
#21 continued
I’ve been tracking a property out in Morris County that I’m interested in.
Grim, i gather your boots are laced up and you’re ready for action?
just calculated the mortgage rates for a 325k loan vs 350k loan.
at 4.5 for 325k – $1646k per month (excluding taxes).
at 5.5 for 350k – $1987k per month (excluding taxes)
We’re really hoping for that dip to 4.5%. we’re thinking like people did during the election: vote for whatever best helps you, dont vote with the country’s best interests in mind.
Bernard Madoff, ex Chair of the board of directors of NASDAQ told employees today that his business was a scam, and that the private investors who supposedly had $17 billion with him, have nothing.ZERO ,
All told, he said the losses will amount to $50 billion.
That should help confidence in the markets tomorrow
Boris (333)-
Nah. Anybody on WS can piss away or steal 17 bn these days.
The bottom fell out when Dimon admitted today that more pain is on the way.
And his bank’s allegedly the solvent one (ha!).
LMAO
only because im ready. hopefully.
Hi, Stu,
A quick question: Does AC have babysitting service somewhere? Or you never bring little Gator along.
Thanks,
Waiting
Holy crap..
SEC Charges Bernard L. Madoff for Multi-Billion Dollar Ponzi Scheme
Washington, D.C., Dec. 11, 2008 — The Securities and Exchange Commission today charged Bernard L. Madoff and his investment firm, Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities LLC, with securities fraud for a multi-billion dollar Ponzi scheme that he perpetrated on advisory clients of his firm. The SEC is seeking emergency relief for investors, including an asset freeze and the appointment of a receiver for the firm.
The SEC’s complaint, filed in federal court in Manhattan, alleges that Madoff yesterday informed two senior employees that his investment advisory business was a fraud. Madoff told these employees that he was “finished,” that he had “absolutely nothing,” that “it’s all just one big lie,” and that it was “basically, a giant Ponzi scheme.” The senior employees understood him to be saying that he had for years been paying returns to certain investors out of the principal received from other, different investors. Madoff admitted in this conversation that the firm was insolvent and had been for years, and that he estimated the losses from this fraud were at least $50 billion.
“We are alleging a massive fraud — both in terms of scope and duration,” said Linda Chatman Thomsen, Director of the SEC’s Division of Enforcement. “We are moving quickly and decisively to stop the fraud and protect remaining assets for investors, and we are working closely with the criminal authorities to hold Mr. Madoff accountable.”
Andrew M. Calamari, Associate Director of Enforcement in the SEC’s New York Regional Office, added, “Our complaint alleges a stunning fraud that appears to be of epic proportions.”
According to regulatory filings, the Madoff firm had more than $17 billion in assets under management as of the beginning of 2008. It appears that virtually all assets of the advisory business are missing.
yikes (335)-
Nobody can riot like Europeans.
Too bad they can’t convert that energy into doing actual work.
Can’t wait to see the list of people Madoff tapped out.
Unfortunately, some of his clients were charities.
Madoff just vaporized the equivalent of the Big-3 bailout?
Benny, can we get a little stimulus over here?
comrade (330) -
i dont recall it being *that* big, i guess..
but i was j/k anyways – ill be honest, i would never find myself wearing an ankle piece. maybe a calf holster?
If the story is correct, we’re watching history. Witness the greatest ponzi scheme ever orchestrated.
Madoff market maker for Apple and DELL? WTF!
Welcome to the next wave of hedge fund redemptions.
http://nakedshorts.typepad.com/files/madoffcomplaint.pdf
Wonder if Yeshiva was an investor
Interesting comment over at CR. Posits that if the losses are $50 billion as Madoff states, the funds in excess of the estimated $17 billion in management at the asset management firm may have come from the float associated with the market making business. Imagine, $30 billion in trades evaporating, big implications if this is the case.
Who knows, tomorrow is going to be an interesting day.
RE: 328
Speaking of scandals…
Today I spoke with a partner at Drier who is a client. Un-f@ckin-believable! I don’t understand what possesses people to things like this:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=atgnALzwJWAw&refer=home
Suffice to say the firm is in chaos. This guy actually intercepted a fortress delegation and pretended to be a pension fund attorney from Ontario. UFB!
Having read 337:
I guess it must be a coming out of the closet week of sorts for the fat cats. Ya think they phoned each other and picked a date? I guess we’ll know soon enough after they pour over the phone records.
Isn’t too much history being made for one year? I am not sure that I like it so much.
#348,
Hedge funds got conned? ha ha
vic (350)-
This is just the warmup.
#351 make that,
hedge funds allegedly conned? ha ha
#352 clot,
Do you think prisons for white collar criminals are the next bubble?
I guess that bullish sentiment has just gotten sucked out of the room.
Why is the sky pink?
This property is in P-way.
http://imagehost.gsmls.com/ihomefinder/87/2559987_0.jpg
bairen (354)-
Trading at 50% off its 52-week high. Nice entry point?
http://finance.google.com/finance?client=ob&q=NYSE:CXW
Probably a good time to get long plunger handle manufacturers, too.
If we have a sell-off tomorrow, there definitely will be a deal on the weekend. Loosen your wallets a lil more.
#356 syncmaster
looks like purple haze to me.
Maybe hendrix isn’t dead, just hiding in
p-way
“If the story is correct, we’re watching history. Witness the greatest ponzi scheme ever orchestrated.”
I’m pretty sure Social Security was the greatest ponzi scheme ever orchestrated.
Reuters: The Senate failed to reach a compromise to bail out the automakers, effectively killing any chance of Congressional action this year.
Time to short them al to Hell!
Former SEC Chairman Harvey Pitt, interviewed Thursday by CNBC, said the scandal would further undermine people’s confidence in the securities industry. “It’s unfathomable how this could have gone on for so long without anyone having any clue about it,” he said. He expects “the likelihood anyone will get any of their money back is slim to none.”
360. Ben
I always thought that was Heaven.
Futures are tanking hard! Please pass the onion.
Words can’t describe the inner peace I experienced right around 1PM when once the PPT let it go. Zen like baby! I closed out my long positions the other day and went short via SRS, FAZ and SDS.
Short lived though, I think Bernanke, King Herny and the UAW will straight up s**t their pants tomorrow. The UAW will agree to whatever concessions need to be made and this will be fast tracked through over the weekend a la “we need 700B tonight or the sun won’t come up tomorrow”
Clot et al, enjoy the ride.
Bailout is DEAD!
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081212/ap_on_go_co/congress_autos
Don’t worry I am sure the PPT will find someway to make sure there’s Christmas in Whoville! They may even let Clot slice the roast beast!!!
grim Says:
December 11th, 2008 at 9:58 pm
If the story is correct, we’re watching history. Witness the greatest ponzi scheme ever orchestrated.
grim: this is so unbelievably f-d up!
I am afraid the s— is hitting the fan…..did I say end of this week?
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2008/12/11/washington/AP-Congress-Autos.html?_r=1&hp
prepare for friday carnage on wall street
auto bailout, done
so this Madoff guy was kind of running a hedge fund for billionaires?
so am i to understand that some millionaires got hosed out of their investments? hahaha!!
hollywood must be licking their chops at these headlines… truth IS stranger than fiction! all of this will be made into a blockbuster movie or at least a mini-series some day!!
I think that there will be an announcement that a deal has been reached. May not save us from a down day, but it will not be as bad as it looks right now.
On the homeowner front, my second dishwasher failed and needs to be replaced. Since it’s only 30 days old, Lowes will cover it. However I have about 9 inches of water in my crawl space since it’s been raining in Philly for about 24 straight hours.
Keep renting, only us suckers buy!