NJ Unemployment Rises to 6.1%. 6,200 jobs lost in November.

From the NJ Department of Labor and Workforce Development:

Employment in New Jersey Fell by 6,200 in November;Unemployment Rate Rose Slightly to 6.1 Percent

New Jersey employers shed jobs for the fourth consecutive month in November while the state’s unemployment rate moved higher. Employment was lower by 6,200 over the month. The state’s unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage point to 6.1 percent but remained below the U.S. rate of 6.7 percent, the highest rate in 15 years. November’s rate represents the highest statewide unemployment rate since August 1996.

Over the first 11 months of 2008, employment in New Jersey has followed the national trend, falling by 34,400 jobs (-0.84%), a slightly smaller percentage decrease than the nationwide job loss of 1,911,000 (-1.38%) over the same period.

According to preliminary estimates from the New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development’s monthly survey of employers, nonfarm wage and salary employment in the Garden State fell by 6,200 in November to a total of 4,048,200. Losses occurred in both the private (-5,700 jobs) and the public (-500) sectors of New Jersey’s economy. Based on more complete reporting, the previously-released October employment estimate was revised lower by 1,000 to reflect a September-to-October loss of 7,000 jobs.

“The November data underscore how deeply the national recession is hitting our labor market,” said Labor Commissioner David J. Socolow. “Governor Corzine is taking action to help speed the recovery and protect the most vulnerable, including providing funding for foreclosure prevention assistance; creating an Invest NJ program to give businesses incentives to make capital investments and create jobs; providing $22.5 million for food, energy and legal aid assistance for individuals and families struggling to make ends meet; and investing $500 million in state-managed cash funds and pension funds in New Jersey banks to allow these banks to make more loans available to New Jersey businesses,” Socolow said.

Over-the-month losses were recorded in eight of eleven industry supersectors. The largest employment loss occurred in professional and business services which contracted by 1,900 jobs. All three industry components of the supersector registered job losses, led by professional, scientific and technical services (-1,200), followed by management of companies (-500) and administrative support/waste management/remediation services (-200). Also moving considerably lower was employment in manufacturing (-1,600) as both the durable (-900) and nondurable (-700) goods segments suffered job loss.

Other supersectors recording job loss included information (-900), financial activities (-900), construction (-500), and trade, transportation and utilities (-200). The only industry to record appreciable gains in November was education and health services which added 300 jobs. Hiring in the health care and social assistance (+500) category was responsible for the increase.

Over the month, the unadjusted workweek for manufacturing workers increased by 0.3 hours to 41.3 hours, average hourly earnings rose by $0.14 to $18.10 and weekly earnings were up by $11.17 to $747.53. Compared with November of last year, the unadjusted workweek for manufacturing workers was down by 0.5 hours, average hourly earnings rose by $0.65 and weekly earnings were higher by $18.12.

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202 Responses to NJ Unemployment Rises to 6.1%. 6,200 jobs lost in November.

  1. Ben says:

    but the New Jersey housing market remains strong

  2. Nicholas says:

    Reposting from last thread

    Just to run some numbers for you who are interested in big cuts.

    4.2 million barrels cut September
    29.045 million barrels produced September
    150$ a barrel at September highs
    4,356,750,000$ gross revenue

    14.46% production cut

    24.845 million barrels produced after Today’s cuts
    43$ a barrel
    1,068,355,000$

    75.48% Haircut in gross Oil Revenues

    OPEC cuts 2.2 million barrels a day

    http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081217/af_opec_meeting.html

    Wednesday December 17, 11:19 am ET
    OPEC cuts record 2.2 million barrels a day from production to stem steep price fall

    ORAN, Algeria (AP) — OPEC says it is cutting 2.2 million barrels a day from its output — the largest ever at one time — to stem crude prices that have plummeted over 70 percent from summer highs of nearly $150.
    An OPEC statement says its latest announcements means it is taking 4.2 million barrels a day off the market compared to September levels. The 4.2 million figure includes more than 500,000 barrels of overproduction OPEC said in September it would eliminate and a formal cut of 1.5 million barrels a day that it agreed on last month.

    That amounts to a new reduction of 2.2 million barrels announced Wednesday.

    In practice, “it’s 2.2” said OPEC President Chakib Khelil.

    Members among the 13-nation organization were officially producing a daily 29.045 million barrels in September.

  3. Victorian says:

    This is the primary reason that I would not buy a house for at least a year. The employment situation is just too insecure. I work in the financial services sector and have survived 2 rounds of vicious job cuts. The look on the faces of people who have mortgages to pay was just too scary to recollect.

  4. lena says:

    The look on the faces of people who have mortgages to pay was just too scary to recollect.

    And how about KIDS to feed?

  5. John says:

    Sean you ROCK, and Sean is Galic for a John so it is a way cool name. Buying below par insured munis and below par bank bonds tha the FDIC has already decided to save and holding them with a little pref stock here and there and somehow I am the crazy one. Problem is if you dig too deep you won’t make any money, when they are selling PCV pipes to bury money in your backyard it reminds me of Y2K. BTW it is hard to refinance under 100K the big banks like Chase refuse to do it. In NYS if you refinace through a different bank than the one that holds your mortgage you need to pay a new mortgage recording tax as NYS calls it a mortgage modification when it is with the same bank and you don’t pay the tax. Chase does not do mortgages under 100k nor modify mortgages under 100k so in that case if your mortgage is under 100K and with Chase you can’t refinance as going to another bank will wipe out any benefits, they will let you take a home equity and let you wipe it out that way.

    Sean Says:
    December 16th, 2008 at 8:31 pm
    I have to step in here and defend my Bronx boy John. His investment strategy is to buy “distressed” bonds and hold them. I don’t hear too many here speaking about this strategy, which should be working just fine for John right now.

  6. Essex says:

    From the NY Times Comments page:

    “…you could fire a canon through all the straw men you’ve created and only if it reached all the way to China would it find a live person. America began going crazy on Jan. 20, 1981, when your avatar Ronald Reagan was sworn in. He began in earnest using the old ‘salami tactic’ on us, slicing away a thin sliver at a time until finally there was no sausage left. ‘Communism’ was a bogus enemy from the get-go. At any time after 1946 we could have buried them with American ingenuity, multilateral and bilateral trade agreements, and entrepreneurship. We were so strong after World War II that we could have changed the Soviet Union and China through honest business practices and trade. Any American with a relative behind the Iron Curtain knew they were failing miserably. One of the Republican presidents I’ve never seen you cite is Dwight Eisenhower. Did his warning about the military-industrial complex ruin him in your eyes?

    If China is more stable today, it’s because with a growth rate slowing from ten percent to seven or eight percent they still have the upper hand. Plus they have 800,000,000 souls desperate for any kind of jobs, eager to work like slaves for a couple of bucks a day. They have zero concern for the health and welfare of these seething masses, so long as through repression and brutality Mao II can be kept at bay. And the other China, the one you speak of, has a larger population than the U.S., who ‘look the other way’ without hesitation. And you hold up this country as an example? OMG!

    You’ve got the sordid, sickening details of Wall Street right, along with how readily Americans, too, look the other way. And yes, we-the-taxpayers are paying off these greedy robbers because we are too ignorant and afraid to clean house with root-and-branch reforms. We’re even afraid to send them to the slammer for their crimes. But to then say that if we bail out “Detroit, America will have a big state-owned industry next to private ones” misses that we intend to lend Detroit money, like we did Chrysler once before, with a good chance that we’ll be repaid. We don’t own a single voting share in Wall Street banks, so to say that they are state-owned is not true either.

    “The U.S. and China are becoming two countries, one system.” If so, it’s only because we’re giving up our basic civil liberties, crushing our unions, engaging in Civil War II with the South fighting reform and fair treatment of just about everyone, especially unions, and the Chinese own us. Meanwhile you gad about the planet representing us. Man, are we in trouble.”

  7. Essex says:

    Bernard Madoff, accused of the largest fraud in U.S. history, will be allowed to remain in his $7 million Park Avenue apartment instead of being sent to jail, under terms of an agreement announced today by federal prosecutors.

    ——————————————

    meanwhile….jack a quickie mart and get sent to County Lockup…..oh well.

  8. John says:

    NEW JERSEY ST TRANSN TR FD AUTH TRANS SYS 00.00000% 12/15/2028 BDS SER. 2008 A
    Price (Ask) 25.484
    Yield to Worst (Ask) 6.961%

    NJ issued a whole bunch of zeros this week, this is just one of the issues, I guess the current NJ children in 2028 will have to pay this out with 20 years of 7% interest when it is due.

  9. John says:

    ING cutting CD rates again, big ben is going to force savers into riskier things as they get hungry for yield

    6 Month 2.50% 12/17/2008
    9 Month 2.75% 12/17/2008
    12 Month 3.50% 12/17/2008
    18 Month 3.50% 12/17/2008
    24 Month 3.25% 12/17/2008
    30 Month 3.25% 12/17/2008
    36 Month 3.25% 12/17/2008
    48 Month 3.25% 12/17/2008
    60 Month 3.25% 12/17/2008

  10. Victorian says:

    Goldman Sachs’s Tax Rate Drops to 1%, or $14 Million

    “Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which got $10 billion and debt guarantees from the U.S. government in October, expects to pay $14 million in taxes worldwide for 2008 compared with $6 billion in 2007. ”

    “U.S. Representative Lloyd Doggett, a Texas Democrat who serves on the tax-writing House Ways and Means Committee, said steps by Goldman Sachs and other banks shifting income to countries with lower taxes is cause for concern.

    “This problem is larger than Goldman Sachs,” Doggett said. “With the right hand out begging for bailout money, the left is hiding it offshore.”

  11. Nicholas says:

    Grim,

    Just noticing your Baltimore Blog under “Housing Bubble”.

    Seems that blog hasn’t had an entry since January 4th of this year. Might be time to prune that list.

  12. kettle1 says:

    Vic,

    Is there any way we can find out who is buying treasuries right now?

    I wondered the same thing and from what i have been able to find the answer appears to be not really. Although i did find a few papers that suggest purchases by indirect bidders are good proxies for purchases by foreign central banks.

    Any finance guru’s want to chime in?

  13. Ben says:

    I wonder if Madoff has the guts to show his face in public. I can only imagine that there is at least one disgruntled investor lurking around Park Avenue looking to perform some vigilante justice.

  14. Essex says:

    13…yeah somebody is going to clock him with a frozen brisket.

  15. Confused In NJ says:

    Doesn’t matter that Ben went to zero with Fed Funds Rate. People are starting to understand Capital Preservation, and know that the Entire System is a Ponzi Scheme. Too many lost their virginity to Madoff.

  16. Stu says:

    If any of you refinancee’s actually close on a loan at 4.75% or lower, please let me know. I’m locked at 5.5, but still have plenty of equity and a nice lofty downpayment working for me. I don’t think I would go through the painful process for less than a .5% cut with 0 points. If I can get .75, then hoowahh!

  17. Yikes says:

    re: buying a house …

    we wouldn’t be close if a) we didnt have two incomes, b) even after the purchase, we’ll still have a large amount in the bank that could float living expenses for 6-months, c) we had no kids to worry about.

    in addition, Clotpoll is the man, that is all.

  18. Zack says:

    #9

    Nobody is going to force anybody. People are mostly interested in return of capital than return on capital. There is a paradigm shift taking plae in the american psyche on how they look at investing.

  19. Sean says:

    nice pic of our future pres on drudgereport.com

  20. Essex says:

    21…now there is a guy I wanna have a beer wit.

  21. Mike NJ says:

    Clot,

    Just called your Mtg recommendation. He is a nice guy and knocked off his fee. I think he said you owe him dinner tomorrow night!

    Mike

  22. Confused In NJ says:

    Dec. 17 (Bloomberg) — For all their efforts to liquefy credit markets, the Federal Reserve and the Treasury show no signs of ending the 18-month freeze, as evidenced by the unprecedented gap between what banks and the U.S. government pay to borrow money.

  23. Sean says:

    Buy more ammo for Christmas..

    Quote: “The head of the International Monetary Fund urged governments to step up action to stem the global economic crisis or risk delaying a recovery and sparking violent unrest on the streets.”

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/dec/16/imf-financial-crisis/print

  24. John says:

    Amazing bonds SOV bonds were yielding 18% in October and now under FDIC magic wand less than 3%

    BORROWER: SOVEREIGN BANK*
    AMT $1.35 BLN COUPON 2.75 PCT MATURITY 1/17/2012
    TYPE TLGP NOTES ISS PRICE 99.905 FIRST PAY 7/17/2009
    MOODY’S Aaa YIELD 2.782 PCT SETTLEMENT 12/22/2008
    S&P AAA SPREAD 175 BPS/ PAY FREQ SEMI-ANNUAL
    FITCH AAA MORE THAN TREAS NON-CALLABLE
    * GUARANTEED BY FDIC.

  25. Confused In NJ says:

    Madoff case causes worst losses for Jewish Charities since 1931.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601088&sid=ayBhXjXPNLMM&refer=home

  26. Confused In NJ says:

    Interesting that Senator Lautenburg, with Wall Street & Government experience, couldn’t even protect his own money. Doesn’t say much for prtecting ours.

  27. WickedOrange says:

    For those of you who want to support the Michigan economy but don’t want to buy their crappy cars. I recommend Bowling’s Last Stand. My Christmas tree is safe from my 16 month old. Hell, Ray Lewis couldn’t knock it over. 20 pounds of US steel. Last week, I got my stand much cheaper than the prices listed on the website. Bought it at a place in Paramus. I guess they don’t want to burn their retail locations.

    http://www.christmastreestand.com

  28. 3b says:

    #5 John: Actually it is Gaelic, and linguists prefer Irish to distinguish it from Scottish Gaelic spoken in the Scottish highlands.

  29. John says:

    when gmac, genworth and CIT are banks in a few weeks borrowing cash at 2.75 via FDIC backed bonds the lending spigots will open up.

  30. bi says:

    looks like clot is selling his SRS: down another 13% so far today.

  31. 3b says:

    #31 John:the lending spigots will open up.

    And lend to who??

  32. 3b says:

    #32 Youa rre way too obsessd with clot and SRS position;is that all you have?

  33. John says:

    Car buyers who can’t get a loan, students who can’t get a loan, people who want to refinance, businesses that needs lines of credits, factoring businesses, banks that want to back bond offerings, M&A deals that need upfront money, prime brokerage etc. People and busineses need loans, I am not saying loans to knuckleheads with nothing down mortgages and crazy credit card fools.

    3b Says:
    December 17th, 2008 at 2:11 pm
    #31 John:the lending spigots will open up.

    And lend to who??

  34. RayC says:

    Bi’s SRS reports are getting me nervous. I don’t even have a trading account, but I feel I should open one up to buy SRS fast.

  35. John says:

    as long as it is not pronounced gay-lick

  36. businesses that needs lines of credits, factoring businesses

    What business in their right minds would be expanding production into a market like this?

  37. yikes says:

    bi, you are so silly with your knee-jerk reactions.

    have you looked at a 3-month history? do you not realize how this thing works?

    who am i kidding, youre a blithering imbecile.

  38. the crazy man in the corner says:

    yikes (39) –

    looking at the data.. it has to pop soon.

  39. kettle1 says:

    Madoof clientsbeing bailedout?

    “Ms. Wang indicated to us that the SIPC has a budget of just $1.6 billion and a few credit lines worth $2 billion total. While SIPC is a non-profit organization, they have indicated to us that they will try to make as many people as whole as possible. They claim to be free from any conflicts of interest, even if the amount needed would eclipse their budget. When asked if the Madoff claims came in at $5 billion what would be done, Ms. Wang indicated to us that they could look to Congress for the money.
    http://www.streetinsider.com/Insiders+Blog/SIPCs+Role+In+Madoff-Of-All-Scams+Could+Save+The+Stock+Market/4243249.html

  40. yikes says:

    ben, he’s the messiah, of course he can do this:

    The only way I see the US avoiding having to pay the debt entirely is if they somehow manage to set up a world bank with the world where every nation’s dollar reserves are converted to some global currency. In that case, we’ll all eat the inflation together and the inflationary policies will be socialized throughout the world rather than on the US alone.

  41. yikes says:

    oh look, market down. man, that big rally yesterday is liable to be wiped out by closing time.

    anyone see madoff with his jacket all zipped up? you know he had kevlar on under it.

  42. Stu says:

    There is no new paradigm to investing. Actually, the moment the word paradigm is used, or if someone says, “This time it is different,” it is typically the best time to shift gears back into what always worked in the past. There was a new paradigm during the .com bubble when everyone said the P/Es of 50 and over were justified. Shoot, there were calls of the Dow 50,000 and most believed it. The smart money sold, just as the smart money will be shorting the sh*t out of this rally.

  43. 3b says:

    #35 John:You are way too optimistic at this point. You have to get through the recession first before you can talk about recovery.

  44. kettle1 says:

    how many times do we bail AIG out?

    AIG Writedowns May Rise $30 Billion on Swaps Not in U.S. Rescue

    American International Group Inc., which already has suffered more than $60 billion in writedowns and losses, may have to absorb almost $30 billion more because of flaws in the way its holdings are valued. An examination of AIG’s credit-default swaps guaranteeing more than $300 billion of corporate loans, mortgages and other assets not covered by a $152.5 billion federal rescue shows the New York-based insurer may value some of its positions at levels that don’t reflect distress in the markets, according to an analyst at Gradient Analytics Inc. and a tax consultant who teaches at Columbia University Business School in New York. Executives at two firms that have similar investments say they account for the securities differently than AIG does.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aNSpiZqzDc6A

  45. kettle1 says:

    AIG swaps not covered by the government program include guarantees on $249.9 billion of corporate loans and residential mortgages

  46. John says:

    DIK financing, car dealers who have buyers who can’t get financing, small bus who want to sell their receivables, people who want to refinance higher interest debt but can’t, muni bond partial and full call of high coupon issues, etc.

  47. Zack says:

    If inflation is 1% and I get a CD with a rate of 3% return, I not only preserve my capital but also appreciate it by 2%.
    What is wrong with this picture.

  48. House Hunter says:

    banks keep mum on how they are using funds, aka your tax money
    http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/Business/story?id=6479322&page=1

  49. Stu says:

    “If inflation is 1% and I get a CD with a rate of 3% return, I not only preserve my capital but also appreciate it by 2%.
    What is wrong with this picture.”

    You forgot about taxes #1, and you will be locking yourself out of the profitable recovery, whenever that may be.

  50. RentinginNJ says:

    The only way I see the US avoiding having to pay the debt entirely is if they somehow manage to set up a world bank with the world where every nation’s dollar reserves are converted to some global currency. In that case, we’ll all eat the inflation together

    Isn’t this kind of the case today though? We have the dollar and most of the world is long the dollar via treasuries & other debt since most of the industrialized world (at least most of Asia) still makes a living by exporting to the U.S.

    While the world is free to dump our debt, doing so would not only destroy the value of their reserves, their savings, but would also throw their biggest customer (the U.S.) into a severe recession/depression and destroy demand for their exports, while at the same time making their exports more expensive to the U.S. market via a devalued dollar; a triple whammy.

    The best hope for the world in the near term is to suck it up and look the other way while the U.S. tries to print its way out of this mess. Of course, the world will move to reduce its long term exposure to the dollar to prevent this from happening again, so we won’t be able to rely on exporting inflation forever; fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me.

  51. Clotpoll says:

    bi (32)-

    Once again, you are wrong.

    Also- unlike you- I do not disappear when things get a little pressurized.

  52. Clotpoll says:

    vodka (47)-

    AIG will be a cool trill before this debacle ends.

    Mark my words.

  53. Stu says:

    Vodka (47):
    “how many times do we bail AIG out?”

    Depends on how many times leveraged they are on their CDO mortgage insurance. Anyone know how many CDOs they insured in the Prime Option Arm arena?

    Anyone else have the funny feeling that we are staring at August of 2007 all over again in the Fall of 2009?

  54. kettle1 says:

    Question:

    Average homes price should be about 3X income. That would put NJ average home price somewhere around 250K. If rent should run around 20X annual rent, then the average rent in NJ should be about 1000. even if we bump the average home price to 300K the average rent is only around 1250.

    These numbers are very fast and loose, but it looks like rent should be dropping a fair amount over the length of the bubble burst.

    looking at several homes for rent, including my own, i would expect rent to drop quite a bit over the next 5 – 10 years. Not a good out look for landlords.

  55. Frank says:

    54,
    Clotpoll,
    Are you saying you are like a roach?

  56. John says:

    Stu, this is why, banks (Independence is Soverign) that have access to issue FDIC bonds at 2.75 and is owned by one of the best capialized banks in world (Standandar) are paying insane yields close to 13% on senior bonds. Over time the difference in yielding 3% in a cd versus 13% on a bond is a huge difference. A bond like this should be yielding around 5% in normal times.

    INDEPENDENCE CMNTY BK CORP 4.90000% 09/23/2010 SR NT
    Price (Ask) 88.000
    Yield to Worst (Ask) 12.742%

  57. John says:

    Dec. 17 (Bloomberg) — Oil fell below $40 a barrel for the first time in more than four years as OPEC failed to convince traders that the glut in crude will diminish and the U.S. government said supplies climbed for the 11th time in 12 weeks.

    Who made that 40 oil call on this site, that wast the call of the year!!

  58. Clotpoll says:

    Frank (58)-

    Why? Are you looking for missing family members?

  59. Stu says:

    Yes John, Bi is a genius about 3% of the time.

    “Who made that 40 oil call on this site, that wast the call of the year!!”

  60. RentinginNJ says:

    kettle1,

    While those “rules of thumb” generally hold true, rents include property taxes while home prices do not. NJ’s very high property taxes could throw that equation off a bit. Property taxes are somewhat of a fixed cost (not falling in line with falling home prices) and could put a floor under rents preventing them from falling too far.

    A landlord may be willing to be cash flow negative if he saw it as a short term phenomenon or if he thought capital gains through appreciation would make-up for the negative cash flow, but would be unwilling to support the losses over the longer term.

  61. Victorian says:

    Stu (62) –

    IIRC, He made the call last year when Oil was @ 70.

  62. grim says:

    But what option does the landlord have? A vacant apartment would result in a greater negative cash flow, so which situation is best? A landlord can ask whatever he likes for a rental, but the market dictates whether or not he’ll rent it at asking.

    Would selling even be an option? The situation we are discussing is falling rents, and if rents drive rental property prices, the landlord might be looking at a loss here as well.

    The best option might be the one that minimizes cash outflow, as unpalatable as it may seem.

  63. the crazy man in the corner says:

    grim (65) –

    if one can still afford the net negative cash flow, then at some point wouldn’t you still be paying it off and gaining equity?

  64. zieba says:

    I just got off the phone with a buddy who called to gloat that he ditched a gig in a private sector architecture firm at just the right time because their salaries have been slashed by 1-3%. He claims that he’s safe because he’s a state employee and they have “money from the government”. So I asked him about his day and how work is and he proceeded to explain that he strolls around with his hands in his pockets, answers emails and is having a good ol’ time.

    Ignorance is bliss.

  65. #64 – He did. The call was made last year about oil prices for EOY `07, not now.

  66. zieba says:

    I could almost see the freight train in the distance, steaming towards him at full speed.

  67. Bob says:

    Who made that 40 oil call on this site, that wast the call of the year!!

    wouldn’t you know it..it was made by the one most mocked on this blog.

    but I’m glad I’m not the only one who noticed the brave $200 oil call by when it was at 150 then switched to $30 when it was at 50. I think he said it’s called “the scientific method” or something. lol!

    what about that gold bug? not sure what he called though – 1500/ounce? 2000/ounce? not to worry, he’s still “loading up”. lol!

  68. kettle1 says:

    renting 63

    Hence the dillema. I see a situation where none of the parties involved have room to budge.

    ——————————————–

    A point i have seen made several places today:

    with the wonderful world of ZIRP wreaking havoc with treasuries, there is the possibility of seeing negative interest rates on bank accounts. This could easily cause a large scale run on banks. Even joe shmoe who never looks at the market will notice the bank charging him to keep an account. And what about money markets?

    could get ugly

  69. HEHEHE says:

    Kettle,

    I brought that up re the money markets the other day. These clowns have essentially screwed anyone who is close to retirement. They should be thrown in jail.

  70. HEHEHE says:

    Bi,

    I give credit where credit is due, you made the call of oil below $40. I don’t agree for your rationale for that call which if I remember correctly was that $40 was the fair price. I don’t believe you mentioned a second great depression being the reason oil is at $40.

  71. RentinginNJ says:

    But what option does the landlord have?…The best option might be the one that minimizes cash outflow, as unpalatable as it may seem.

    It may be, especially for those landlords that are deeply under water, however many landlords are long time owners with positive equity who have no reason to accept a negative cash flow. Secondly, as the deflating bubble psychology shifts from “waiting for a recovery” to “housing will never recover”, many simply won’t be willing to wait it out and will mail in the keys. Others won’t be able to shell out money to subsidize a loosing investment on a monthly basis and will be forced into foreclosure.

    Overall, we could see supply destruction at a time when more people will be forced into the rental market due to their own credit and jobs problems. So while rents will probably fall, I don’t think they will fall in lockstep with home prices.

  72. HEHEHE says:

    Citibank’s computers down, blocking account info

    NEW YORK – Customers of New York City-based Citibank have lost access to much of their account information because of a computer outage.

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081217/ap_on_bi_ge/citibank_outage_2

  73. make money says:

    what about that gold bug? not sure what he called though – 1500/ounce? 2000/ounce? not to worry, he’s still “loading up”. lol!

    Bob,

    I’m all in Gold and buying on every dip. Gold is up 8 out of last 9 sessions.

  74. Sastry says:

    Clap clap on Bi’s $40 oil call.

    I know, one would have to be careful in extrapolating (no one knows whether that was profound wisdom or simple luck)

    S

  75. kettle1 says:

    HEHEHE

    Bernanke and friends seem like a kid playing with a loaded gun. Can you really just toss around debt and run the printing press without having unexpected consequences from a system as complex as the US economy with is only a subset of the global economy?

    I doubt it.

  76. kettle1 says:

    Re Renting

    median family income in westfield NJ is 109K. at 3X the average home price would be 350K. So renting a home their should average about 1600. HA, not a chance.

    From a quick web search it looks like westfield rents are running closer to 3K for an average 3 bd home

  77. Nugget Digger says:

    Let’s analyze Bi’s call. It was made in Nov, 07′ when crude was $68. Let’s say Bi acted on the call and sold short 10 crude futures. Subsequently, crude blasted thru $100, up to $147. Bi would have been down 800K on the trade. In addition to this, margin would have cost approx 100K. If Bi’s trading account had over 900K in cash and Bi stayed with the trade, Bi would now be up $28K. If Bi did not have 900k, to cover the debit, plus margin, Bi would have been buried. Pure genius.

  78. Victorian says:

    Here is something to cheer you guys up. After 8 years of suffering –

    http://play.sockandawe.com/

  79. kettle1 says:

    looks like the average home price is westfield is about 686K. Unless most people were putting down 300K on a house then a large number of mortgage holders are going to be way underwater by the time this plays out

  80. Sean says:

    Bi made his original oil prediction on 8/3/2007 at 11:31 am. What he said was that Oil would specifically fall to $40 when it it was at $76. He was wrong then and took a years worth of ribbing over it.

    He also made a similar $40 Oil call on 8/4/2008 which one could say he is correct, however he did not put a timeline around it.

    If I was his margin clerk, he would not be alloed to place a bet on the second call after having to take out three HELOCs to cover his losses from the first call.

  81. 3b says:

    #82 kettle:then a large number of mortgage holders are going to be way underwater by the time this plays out.

    No surprise there.

  82. Do we also want to bring up his many calls on home builders when DJUSHB was at 600? (It’s at 245 currently)
    I think he was actually following XHB, which was around 26 when he said he liked it (the pant up demand call), it’s now at 13.

  83. Bob says:

    actually I had that other guy in mind.

    how do you go all-in on every dip? if gold’s down for 5 straight sessions, you go all in every day? if it’s down 4 out of 5 sessions, you only go all-in 4 sessions? what time of day do you go in? how does that work exactly?

    make money Says:
    December 17th, 2008 at 4:04 pm
    what about that gold bug? not sure what he called though – 1500/ounce? 2000/ounce? not to worry, he’s still “loading up”. lol!

    Bob,

    I’m all in Gold and buying on every dip. Gold is up 8 out of last 9 sessions.

  84. make money says:

    79 kettle1

    The 109 income number is understated as most people don’t report their accurate income.

    I know many business owners who claim losses year after year and pay a $5,000 mortage and $15,000 property taxes.

  85. Stu says:

    “Discounting Bi’s Call”

    If I recall correctly, Bi’s $40 oil call was made in the late fall of 2007 when oil was around 90 but accelerating upwards. Of course, oil shot up to 150 almost immediately after igniting Kettle1’s peak oil debate. Unfortunate for him, 15 months later, Bi ended up being right. On the surface, one would see Bi’s call as brilliant. But as one digs deeper onto the Bi psyche, one notices both a pattern of excessive calls in an abundance of sectors, many of which were impossibly wrong. One that stands out was his XHB (home builders) call that the builders had bottomed in late 2007. 15 months later, they are lower than when he made this call. Bi also exhibits a short-term memory like that of a flea and disappears for weeks whenever he is wrong.

    In conclusion, Bi’s $40 oil call must be ignored as his tendency to base his calls on a time interval of minutes and on so many different areas of expertise leads one to believe that he is more likely suffering from a case of Turret’s Syndrome than to have deftly made a brilliant sector call.

  86. skep-tic says:

    #57

    “Average homes price should be about 3X income.”

    I think if you look historically for the NYC metro area, house prices in many areas were at least 4x income, even in the pre-bubble period.

  87. Victorian says:

    Kettle –

    RE: Inflation and Deflation.
    Has there ever been a case in history where this is general inflation without wage inflation?
    IMHO, we are not going to see inflation without a rise in wages. Thoughts?

  88. skep-tic says:

    “looking at several homes for rent, including my own, i would expect rent to drop quite a bit over the next 5 – 10 years. Not a good out look for landlords.”

    I agree though that landlords have diminishing leverage when it comes to rent.

  89. Nicholas says:

    Wasn’t there a power point presentation a few days back that showed because of tightening lending standards that the average homeowner can borrow 33% less then they could at the bubbles peak.

    The only thing that has kept the purchasing power so high is that interest rates have fallen. Either way, the class of people that could buy your home pre-bubble now can’t buy your home.

    Erosion of purchasing power has thinned the borrowers for all segments of the market.

  90. make money says:

    Bob,

    I’m all in as a percentage of my net worth/ portfolio, I use my current income stream to purchase every time I stack a few ounces and Gold has a 7 handle.

    Holler at Peter Schiff cause your savings is under atatck by the Fed.

  91. make money says:

    Vic(90)

    It’s called a lower standard of living.

  92. Nicholas says:

    I’m all in Gold and buying on every dip. Gold is up 8 out of last 9 sessions.

    Have you ever heard of the GOLDEN RULE boy?!? He who has the GOLD makes the RULES! AHaHaHahahaha…..

  93. skep-tic says:

    “looks like the average home price is westfield is about 686K.”

    based on the income number stated above, and assuming 4.1x annual income is sustainable measure of value (which I believe is the average for many NYC suburbs pre-bubble), then Westfield is about 35% overvalued

  94. 3b says:

    #89 skeptic; I do not recall that. And when I owned mtg wise it was always 2.5 to 3 times income to qualify

    Perhaps it seemed higher,a s salraies were/are higher compared to other areas in the country.

  95. Sean says:

    Her is the predictions thread from December of 2007.

    A few of us had some decent calls for 2008.

    http://njrereport.com/index.php/2007/12/31/predictions-2008/#comments

  96. Stu says:

    “Have you ever heard of the GOLDEN RULE boy?!?”

    I thought the he who has the GOLD take the golden shower!

  97. REpo says:

    89.”# skep-tic Says:
    December 17th, 2008 at 4:24 pm

    #57

    “Average homes price should be about 3X income.”

    I think if you look historically for the NYC metro area, house prices in many areas were at least 4x income, even in the pre-bubble period.”

    The question is: What did it drop to in the early 1990’s? It should fall at least that far this time.

  98. skep-tic says:

    #92

    “Wasn’t there a power point presentation a few days back that showed because of tightening lending standards that the average homeowner can borrow 33% less then they could at the bubbles peak.”

    if so, that is pretty neat as it roughly corresponds by the percent house prices in the tri state area need to drop

  99. Stu says:

    “If there is a God in heaven, ReTard will die.”

    Clot, unfortunately, your prediction did not come true!

  100. kettle1 says:

    make,

    not every mortgage holder will be underwater, and none of this is news here, but i pulled the numbers off google as a quick and dirty example.

    Both rent and home prices are 2X historical trends. While the area may be able to command a premium, can it really command 2X when the housing bubble has burst and wallstreet and choked?

  101. 3b says:

    #90 Victorian:IMHO, we are not going to see inflation without a rise in wages. Thoughts?

    We saw wage inflation in the 70’s but today is a very different world, globalization to name just one thing different. I don’t think that we will see it this time, at least for the average worker;perhaps we will see it in some specialities.

  102. Nicholas says:

    The other thing to consider is that the method that you are using to calculate “average income” is incorrect.

    I usually check for “average income” from census information that was collected in 2006. That means that people would have been quoting their 2005 information in that census information.

    Just like there was an asset bubble and commodities bubbles, there likely was a wage bubble where people were at near full employment getting over-paid to do unskilled jobs. This would have created a “income bubble” that could have been used in 2005-2007 to justify those higher mortgages. With the unemployment going like it is wages will come back down in line.

    Consider “income bubble” when you quote area average incomes.

  103. Sean says:

    re: #102 Stu- year isn’t over yet.

  104. John says:

    I thought average income was 250K on this site?

  105. kettle1 says:

    Skeptic,

    We agree on the general idea, as i said the numbers were rough approximations.

    Although i would challenge the sustainability of rents and home prices at 4X. The 2 major employers of this area are on the way out, finance and pharma. Where will the salaries come from to support 4X now?

    —————————————-

    Vic

    Has there ever been a case in history where this is general inflation without wage inflation?
    IMHO, we are not going to see inflation without a rise in wages. Thoughts?

    I cannot think of one off of the top of my head. we also have not seen globalization on the current scale at any point in the last 100 years. Globalization has been the one of the major driving forces behind US wage reduction.

    We are currently in a deflationary period so i would expect to see decreasing wages.

  106. Sastry says:

    Re… long term predictions…

    I shorted FNM in March on margin and lost my shirt (30% up one day — when it went from 24 to 31 or so).

    Reminds me of the quote “the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent”.

    S

  107. Sastry says:

    John #107

    250 k? So low? I thought under 1M are not allowed in here.

    There are some poor blokes like me too around here.

    S

  108. kettle1 says:

    Nick 105

    median income in 2000 for westfield was 98K. not a huge difference and it doesn’t drastically change the numbers. If anything it makes the situation worse.

  109. Essex says:

    We were conservative when we bought….approx…2x times income, but put another $100k in over the years…..I dunno….I would say buy a little more than you can afford and stiff a few creditors…

  110. kettle1 says:

    sastry,

    A bunch of us post on this blog from our blackberries while waiting in line at the soup kitchen.

  111. Essex says:

    111. $98k is not squat….no wonder people are dying financially.

  112. Essex says:

    In NJ I would say that a homeowner’s would have to be at least $250k if they want to have a life outside of ramen noodles and the occasional night out at Fridays.

  113. HEHEHE says:

    Kettle,

    The answer to too much debt is apparently more debt. That is Bergabe’s thesis. Of course his basis of his thesis is the study of the Great Depression which, unfortunately for the Bearded One, took place when we where a creditor nation and had a positive savings rate. Inflation is what is going to result from this. Uncontrolled inflation.

  114. skep-tic says:

    #100

    http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr218.pdf

    see p22 of this report. it looks like at the trough of the prior RE downturn, price to income ratio dropped to 0.85 of the 24 yr average. Assuming 4 is the average, then it seems fair for it to overshoot to 3.5 or less. But I think buying at 4 is not problematic for the long term

  115. skep-tic says:

    #108

    Kettle– I think the 4X number is justified for a few reasons. #1, NYC area real estate (like Boston, San Fran, D.C., L.A. which have similar long term ratios) has outperformed RE nationally for a very long time. Since it is like a growth stock, people will pay a higher multiple.

    Second, I think these big cities are more stratified economically, so the median income number is less revealing w/r/t the actual profile of the typical buyer than many other places where there is less deviation from the center

  116. skep-tic says:

    wild card w/r/t house prices in this area is whether there has in recent months been fundamental and permanent damage to the local economy. if so, then long term P:I may no longer be so relevant

  117. kettle1 says:

    SKeptic,

    Not meant as a flame; but be careful you are getting into Pret’s see of wealth argument.

    Some towns are and will continue to be prestigious and be more expensive then surrounding areas. But 4X or 2X income depends on the income available. the # of people who can pull in 150-300K are going down. The last RE bubble did not have a debt bubble bursting at the same time.

    most areas will not be as likely to avoid substantial drops. Rents in morris county are set for a huge drop as they are all priced like everyone makes 100K when most do not.

  118. skep-tic says:

    also, keep in mind that many NYC suburbs peaked at roughly 7X income. to fall to 4X would be over 40% drop.

  119. #98 – Sean – That was an interesting read. 2k8 was far far worse than most of us predicted.

  120. zieba says:

    All is fine, nothing to see here! Carry on (stuffing both pockets with SRS/SDS)

    Breaking news from the Bloomberg:

    Chrysler will shut down all manufacturing plants for 30 days at the shift change on December 19.

  121. zieba says:

    Dec. 17 (Bloomberg) — Chrysler LLC, the third-largest U.S. automaker, will close all 30 of its plants for at least a month at the end of shifts on Dec. 19 as it combats plummeting demand for vehicles.

    The earliest the operations will come back on line is Jan. 19, the Auburn Hills, Michigan-based company said in a statement today.

    Chrysler’s decision to suspend production comes after a 47 percent decline in U.S. sales in November. The automaker has asked for emergency bridge financing from the U.S. government to avoid collapse.

    Two factories in Toledo, Ohio, that make the Jeep Liberty, Dodge Nitro and Jeep Wrangler will be closed until Jan. 26. The minivan plant in Windsor, Ontario and the Dodge Viper operations in Detroit will shut until Feb. 2, said Shawn Morgan, a Chrysler spokeswoman.

    To contact the reporter on this story: Mike Ramsey in Southfield, Michigan, at mramsey6@bloomberg.net
    Last Updated: December 17, 2008 16:54 EST

  122. REpo says:

    Thanks skep-tic

    Do lay-offs effect the avg salaries figure other than that they create a greater supply of workers to compete for a diminishing number of jobs? In other words, does the $0 salary of a layed-off worker count in the average?

  123. spam spam bacon spam says:

    (87)make money Says:

    The 109 income number is understated as most people don’t report their accurate income.

    I know many business owners who claim losses year after year and pay a $5,000 mortage and $15,000 property taxes.

    First, impossible. You can’t claim losses “year after year”. That’s called a “hobby” and you don’t get to write off a “hobby”. 2 yrs out of 5 is the max years you can claim a loss and guess what, you don’t get to write off everything you spend, either. What you don’t section 179 you depreciate s-l-o-w-l-y.

    Your nice health care you get tax free? Not business owners… we pay taxes on it. As we do on a bunch of other things….

    Second, what’s with the $5,000 mortgage? That’s a lotta of ching for a house…. about 820K for the mortgage, not including downpayment. You think anyone who is buying a 1MM house “keeps claiming a loss”?

    If this is what they are *telling* you, they are blowing smoke up yer cheeks.

  124. Sastry says:

    Essex #115…

    What do you mean by “life outside of ramen noodles and the occasional night out at Fridays”? To own a McMansion plus couple of fancy cars plus eat out every day? Throw parties every night?

    250 k is a lot of money… Unless your notion of a “barely acceptable lifestyle” is to live like a spoiled heiress…

  125. Sean says:

    re: #122 toshiro – And we did not really know that we were already in the Recession when that was written.

    I expect the 2009 predictions to include lots of references to ammo and moving to tropical islands to wait out the coming the rest of this mess.

  126. John says:

    Now you are talking a $350K salary, 250K is the dumpster diving crowd in BC.

    Essex Says:
    December 17th, 2008 at 4:56 pm
    In NJ I would say that a homeowner’s would have to be at least $250k if they want to have a life outside of ramen noodles and the occasional night out at Fridays.

  127. HEHEHE says:

    Fed Slashes Interest Rates; Nothing Happens

    You can’t say they didn’t try.

    Nevertheless, the Federal Reserve’s drastic moves aimed at jumpstarting lending, highlighted by dropping interest rates to nil yesterday, just aren’t working. To be sure, conditions are better than they were just months ago during the height of the financial panic, but a normally functioning credit market is likely still months away.

    http://njrereport.com/index.php/2008/12/17/nj-unemployment-rises-to-61-6200-jobs-lost-in-november/#comment-249746

  128. #128 – My prediction for 2k9 – The coming zombie apocalypse ! We could call it the zombalypse.

  129. Sastry says:

    Essex Says:
    December 17th, 2008 at 4:56 pm
    In NJ I would say that a homeowner’s would have to be at least $250k if they want to have a life outside of ramen noodles and the occasional night out at Fridays.

    Are you by any chance talking about Spitzer’s lifestyle? Damn! 5-10k a night adds up pretty fast…

  130. Clotpoll says:

    Classic case of pushing on a string.

  131. Essex says:

    132….no…just a normal middle class existence with one or maybe two kids…..I am amazed at how quickly the money goes around here.

  132. comrade nom deplume says:

    [128] sean,

    That reminds me. I will be driving by a Cabela’s this weekend. Time to stock up on ammo.

  133. Essex says:

    129…No John….I mean a household income — combined if you will….total compensation….the fascinating thing is that there ‘was’ so much money here….I cannot believe it will continue. I think we are in for something never seen before. You cannot have the financial sector disappear and not see some real changes. Where are all the middle office people going? Those salaries are G O N E .

  134. comrade nom deplume says:

    [128] sean,

    And I am not planning on moving to a tropical island. Too expensive. I am, however, looking into a nice retirement place in the carribean for my money!

  135. Essex says:

    135…Or just take the gun off of the corpse of the person who tries to mug you (or me) cheaper that way and save on paperwork.

  136. kettle1 says:

    Tosh

    if we are making predictions…. then 2k9 will be the year of the vanishing retirement funds. By mid year the public and MSM will wake up to the fact that many retirement plans and investment arent worth the paper the statements are printed on.

  137. lostinny says:

    NY’s Gov. Patterson announces serious budget cuts. NYC schools looking at a possible 1 billion dollar loss. I think the union meeting Friday morning is going to break the news of the coming lay offs. Wish me luck!
    http://www.uft.org/news/issues/press/paterson_announces_plan/

  138. Nurburgringer says:

    Tosh – the Carpocalypse is already upon us!

    http://cgi.ebay.com/ebaymotors/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=170287973222&ssPageName=ADME:B:WNARL:MOTORS:1123

    At least read the first paragraph in the description.

    I emailed this guy during the original auction about a month ago (first one had no ‘buy it now’ price, starting bid $20k) asking about service records and about what he was looking to get for it. Said I’m in Milwaukee now and could drive down to check it out.
    He gave me a snotty answer about not showing the car to non-serious people, didn’t answer about the records but graciously provided the phone number of the service shop to verify the work. They wouldn’t give out service history to anyone but the owner, so I wished him well on the auction and kept an eye on it.
    He’s relisted it 3 times since, with no bids on any of the auctions (can only ‘buy it now’)
    After another auction or two goes by I’ll drive down with $25k in cash.

  139. John says:

    The blind NY gov is better at balancing a budget than the NJ gov

  140. kettle1 says:

    THis one is so easy you cant call it a prediction:

    Paulson is proven wrong

    Paulson does not expect any more major financial institutions to fail during current crisis

    http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/12/16/business/16paulson.php

  141. #142 – That is soooo tempting…. I have to starting keeping my on GT2s. The next few years might prove to be very good to those of us with cash. I have to watch Elises as well.

    #139 – Ket – 2k9 will be the year of the vanishing retirement funds
    I think you’re right on the money with that. I’d just add it will be a theme for the next few years.

  142. Nurburgringer says:

    Tosh – GT2s?! You have way more talent and cash than me. If SRS hits me right one more time I may be looking at GT3s though.

    Elises are finally coming down under $30k, which is still a lot considering I bought a low mileage Opel Speedster (essentially the same car, without the hoity-toidy name) in Germany for 16000 Euros. Best car I’ve ever driven, was a dream on the ‘ring.

    Even though this one isn’t a quatrovolve or early carbed year, I’m thinking this is still a heck of a nice sunny day car for $22k
    http://cgi.ebay.com/ebaymotors/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&ssPageName=STRK:MEWAX:IT&item=250336477973

  143. Clotpoll says:

    vodka (144)-

    In less than 30 days, another major US financial institution will fail.

    Probably several. And Klink already knows it.

  144. SAS says:

    what ever happend to that tree house?
    :)

    SAS

  145. SAS says:

    old time blokes on the boards know what I am talking about:)

    SAS

  146. chicagofinance says:

    Clotpoll Says:
    December 17th, 2008 at 11:38 am
    make (97)- If your balance is under 417K, you can be locked up to 90 days at under 5% by First Valley Funding, (908) 231-7390.
    They can also lend in PA.
    Disclaimer: I have no financial interest in this company at all. They are a tenant of mine.

    clot: are you talking refi or purchase?

  147. kettle1 says:

    Clott,

    you have to wonder what these guys are thinking…. The treasury dislocation that is occuring really only leaves to options for the US.

    A national default on debt or the nation becoming a debt slave to asia.

    Klink and bergabe are setting the US up for an Iceland like collapse. An overnight loss of the government to borrow money, deficit spend.

    1873 here we come.

  148. Essex says:

    146…..a little too Magnum P.I….and really not much of a Ferrari…..the 512BB of the same era was really more car. But I digress…..how would you like to pay someone to work on that?

  149. Nurburgringer – GT2s?! You have way more talent and cash than me.
    Alas, I really have neither, just dreams and delusions fueled by too much Gran Turismo.

    I’ve thought about the 308s too, fairly inexpensive currently, they sound great, I’m not sure what repairs would be like though.

  150. Tom says:

    Clott,

    You were right, it really was No Hope for Homeowners.

    Pretty good deal for banks though. They don’t modify mortgages so they see a lot of foreclosures and need a bailout. Then they wind up keeping the houses too.

  151. Tom says:

    “Probably several. And Klink already knows it.”

    Already knows? The guy gets to choose.

    I can just picture it. He invites a handful of CEO’s and their trophy wives to his home for dinner. After dinner he slips into something more comfortable and asks the CEO’s “Gentlemen, how bad do you need a bailout?” As he leers at their wives.

  152. Clotpoll says:

    chi (150)-

    Either.

  153. Kurt says:

    Essex – love 512s too, but $100k++ and V12 speed only usable on autobahns…

    308s have strong engines, little electronics to go wrong (upgrade fuse box for $150 cures the main problem), and are slow enough to sanely exploit the performance on the road unlike a 400hp vette, viper, etcetc.

  154. Clotpoll says:

    Tom (154)-

    This is what you get when Pelosi & Barney the bat smoker are allowed input into anything more important than deciding what soup to have for lunch.

    There are people in mental institutions that could come up with something more effective.

  155. 3b says:

    #117 skeptic:But I think buying at 4 is not problematic for the long term

    Maybe. But this situation is so much more different than past downturns, so all I can say is maybe.

  156. SAS says:

    “N.J. agency overseeing college aid won’t let students defer loan payments”
    http://tinyurl.com/5hjpk9

  157. 3b says:

    #119 skeptic: I think at this pint it is more than reasonable to say this area has and will sufferr long term permanent economic decline.

  158. 3b says:

    #143 John:The blind NY gov is better at balancing a budget than the NJ gov

    Agreed.

  159. 3b says:

    #155 Tom:As he leers at their wives.

    Hey, maybe he leers at them;you never know.

  160. d2b says:

    Tom 154-
    Bailout money, foreclosed homes and rising stock prices.

    These companies are getting to reorganize without bankruptcy. If it fails they are no worse off. If it succeeds the only one screwed is the taxpayers. GOP goes out with a bang and we pick up the check.

  161. Zac says:

    AN AMERICAN PROTEST
    This situation is so obvious and so pathetic that it is hard to comprehend that there are not riots in the streets (Greece: unwelcome reforms, economic stagnation, government corruption).
    But, when our people do reach that level, and it may be sooner than later, the situation will be revolution (Boston 1773).
    Just my two cents.
    And, by the way, I’ll take honey and lemon with that.

  162. SAS says:

    fees = taxes with an F.

    SAS

  163. Essex says:

    Nice Grim…I saw a woman driving one of those up on the Parkway….Bergen area…so someone around here has one in white. Pure craziness….I like it….a lot.

  164. spam spam bacon spam says:

    I thought Hunterdon was the brigadoon of west jersey…

    hoocoodanode?

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081217/ap_on_fe_st/odd_hitler_cake

  165. Essex says:

    Car prices have fallen quite a bit btw….I traded up last Spring…got a better interest rate and the car I wanted….a keeper. John would say it is an awesome car to deliver pizzas in. The good news is I got a lot for my trade….I probably paid a little too much, but I consider it a wash.

  166. Essex says:

    171…..Is it me or does the dad look completely creepy gay?

  167. Al says:

    RE: Inflation and Deflation.
    Has there ever been a case in history where this is general inflation without wage inflation?
    IMHO, we are not going to see inflation without a rise in wages. Thoughts?

    You should have told it to me when I was living in Soviet union 1992…

    Wages did not go up. Everything else did. So most people would buy a loaf of bread with their monthly salary – hence everybody stopped working for paper money and worker in barter system…

  168. Zac says:

    173…
    Which one is the dad?

  169. bairen says:

    down goes Frazier

    http://money.cnn.com/2008/12/17/autos/chrysler_shutdown/index.htm?postversion=2008121719

    chrysler shutting down US production for 4 weeks.

  170. Zac says:

    174…
    Generally, Americans were, and are still, VERY UNAWARE of situations beyond there own backyards.
    I cannot figure this out.
    Ignorance is bliss.

  171. SAS says:

    That Robber baron Paulson will speaking tomorrow night at 92Y. I got my tkt. I will try to make it because I am going to to throw my shoes at him. Come watch it.

    I just hope to hell I can get out of that damn meeting with those god damn Arabs. They tell my their whole family history. Like I give a rats..but I smile cause they pay well :)

    Henry M. Paulson
    Date & Time: Thu, Dec 18, 2008, 8:00pm-9:30pm
    Location: Lexington Avenue at 92nd Street
    Price: $27.00
    http://tinyurl.com/3vx5j5

    SAS

  172. SAS says:

    “Americans were, and are still, VERY UNAWARE of situations beyond there own backyards”

    Its worse than that bloke, cause they don’t even know their own backyards. Too busy watching TV, eating cancer causing fast foods, and they they wonder why they got luv handles??

    SAS

    SAS

  173. SAS says:

    and if anyone is buying their child some crap toy filled with lead from China (i.e Fisher Price or Disney).

    your a nut.

    SAS

  174. SAS says:

    kettle, you still got that link?
    its may be time for some bloggers for a refresher.

    -Memoria del Saqueo (Memory of the Looting, a Social Genocide)
    A film by Pino Solanas, in Spanish w/English subtitles
    -The film highlights how, after the fall of Argentina’s military dictatorship in 1983, the political class, the judiciary, the labor unions and social institutions sold out to the international financial institutions and brought Argentina to the massive social rebellion of 2001.

    SAS

  175. SAS says:

    crap!
    Juanita is gone for the week and my wife is on her way home.

    I gotta go and clean the kitchen, its a mess.

    cheerio for now blokes:)

    SAS

  176. randy says:

    http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/692-The-Idiocy-of-Bernankes-Bubbles-and-CNBS.html

    if you haven’t been a regular reader of Karl Denninger lately then you’re missing out on great perspective. he’s hitting them out of the park.

  177. still_looking says:

    SAS 178 re: paulson

    Lemme guess… a magic show?

    How to make piles of money appear out of nowhere and then disappear again??

    sl

  178. HEHEHE says:

    “Lemme guess… a magic show?”

    Yeah he’s going to turn a bunch of credit card companies and automakers into bank holding companies with his magic wand.

  179. galgon says:

    I got my oil changed today at a drive through quick lube place. Overheard the guys talking about how slow the day was. He said they got 47 cars today when they usually get around 80 on a weekday, 100 on a weekend. He said it had been slow through the summer which they attributed to Gas Prices but even now business hasnt picked up. In fact this past week was one of their slowest in a long time. Its pretty sad when one tech can cover 3 bays all day long.

    Are people driving less because they got laid off, changing their own oil, or just going much longer between changes and hoping something does not break? My guess is it is some combination of #1 and #3.

  180. still_looking says:

    HEHE 185

    He’d stand a better chance of turning himself into a putz.

    …[slaps forehead,] Duh, oh ….too late.

    Nevermind.

    sl

  181. still_looking says:

    HEHE 185

    He stands a better chance of turning himself into a putz.

    [slaps forehead…] Duh. Oh, too late.

    sl

  182. yikes says:

    found out today when we put in the offer on a house that the “settlement costs” will be $18k. not excited about that.

    all it means is that we now will refuse to wiggle at all on our lowball. i can’t imagine they’ll accept it.

    (asking 600k, offering 525 in bucks county)

    the neighbors are also selling…they bought in 2006 for 600k, so i imagine they’ll hate us right outta the gate, since we just set the bar in the neighborhood.

  183. galgon says:

    Panasonic buys majority stake Sanyo for 6.38 Billion from Goldman and 2 other financial firms.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Panasonic-buy-majority-stake-Sanyo/story.aspx?guid={4AD8C2D8-3336-4BB6-9B69-949D91B44F87}

  184. chicagofinance says:

    kettle1 Says:
    December 17th, 2008 at 4:06 pm
    HEHEHE Bernanke and friends seem like a kid playing with a loaded gun. Can you really just toss around debt and run the printing press without having unexpected consequences from a system as complex as the US economy with is only a subset of the global economy? I doubt it.

    ket: I consider your act of branding someone as naive and ignorant as rather ironic because it takes heaps of naivete and ignorance to say such a thing….

  185. chicagofinance says:

    ket: to reiterate…we are %ucked…Bergabesan is not attempting to un%uck us…he is attempting to have us avoid eternal hades (a.k.a. The Clotosphere). It is easy to take potshot at him, but please allow me to point out that he has spent decades studying the Great Depression. Is government intervention in this manner repugnant? YES. Is he potentially %ucking up in completely unforseen ways? YES. What would have him do…be Christopher Cox of the last several years?

  186. chicagofinance says:

    Bob Says:
    December 17th, 2008 at 4:22 pm

    B-boy….that is rather a sacred name around here….if ye are neither Booya or Bost, then thy musteth add some prefix or primary adjustment….

  187. chicagofinance says:

    still_looking Says:
    December 17th, 2008 at 10:27 pm
    HEHE 185 He’d stand a better chance of turning himself into a putz.
    …[slaps forehead,] Duh, oh ….too late.
    Nevermind. sl

    still: I take it that you are not a Mets fan….

  188. chicagofinance says:

    As an aside, if you are familiar with these guys, you know that have a sense of humor. Although I very much appreciate clot’s branding them necrophiliacs.

    and a little late night BOOOYA for lostinny…

    Depeche shoot Wrong video with award winning director
    17.12.08 15:56
    Just because they finished the upcoming album last week, doesn’t mean Depeche Mode are already on their Christmas break. This week has seen them back at work, filming the video for the first single, “Wrong”, with Award winning director Patrick Daughters.

  189. zieba says:

    Pay $27 to hear Paulson blow smoke up my ass? I’m sold.

  190. Nurburgringer (Kurt) says:

    Grim – I had a lap of the Nurburgring in a GT3 modified by Manthey racing with about 450hp and suspension perfect for the Nordschleife (i.e. GT3RS+). Unreal. Also totally not suited for the US, unless you live very close to Elkart Lake, Laguna Seca, Watkins Glen, etc.
    For semi-regular road use and semi-serious track use a prepped old 911, Alfa of choice, Vette, or heck even a well chosen 308 will bring you as much fun as a nwer GT3RS for 1/4 the cost.
    It is nice to dream though – esp since 360 Modenas are dipping into the 80s and 996 GT3 into the 50’s.
    Trust me – 150hp in a light car is plenty
    http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-2221257423351405110&ei=r_NJSaSFLY-M-wH949y8Cg&q=edelbach

  191. Nurburgringer (Kurt) says:

    166 Essex – I have that 512 saved to ‘my ebay’. Neve saw a targa-izsame ed one before – Strahman is a quality outfit, if you buy it I call first dibs on a pax-ride :)

    La Jolla is a fantastic place for exotic cars. If you’re ever in the San Diego area go to Symbolic; they’re friendly even to ‘regular’ folk and if you ask nicely will direct you to their off-site garage where you can see a LeMans winning 956 and various exotica under restoration
    http://www.symbolicmotors.com/

    cheers

  192. Essex says:

    198…..another nightowl. It is a beauty Kurt. My plan is to pay of my current ride and hopefully keep it for a while….I think with my budget a simple S2000 Honda might fill the bill for a weekend toy.

  193. lostinny says:

    195 ChiFi
    Thanks! If only I was awake enough to really appreciate that.

  194. lostinny says:

    195 CHiFi
    Thanks! I wish I was awake enough to really appreciate that.

  195. lostinny says:

    I love a glitch in the matrix.

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