January Beige Book

From the Federal Reserve:

January Beige Book – Second District–New York

Construction and Real Estate

Housing markets in the District have been mixed but generally weak since the last report. A New Jersey industry contact reports that the market for new homes continues to weaken, reflecting an ongoing overhang of inventory, but notes some leveling off in the resale market–both in terms of volume and prices. However, the more high-priced areas nearest to New York City are still characterized as especially weak. In particular, one contact specializing in the higher end of the market reports that sales activity has slowed considerably–with buyers increasingly reluctant, many sellers are taking their homes off the market. Home prices at are estimated to be down roughly 20 percent from their peak levels of a couple years ago.

New York State Realtors report that home sales continued to weaken in November, falling nearly 24 percent from a year earlier and that median selling prices posted double-digit percentage declines in and around New York City but were mixed across upstate New York. There appears to have been substantial deterioration in Manhattan’s housing market, based on reports from both a major appraisal firm and a large real estate brokerage. Co-op and condo sales fell roughly 9 percent from a year earlier in the fourth quarter, led by a 25 percent drop in sales of existing apartments (re-sales). In contrast, closings of newly-constructed units surged 35 percent from a year earlier, but these largely comprised contracts negotiated in late 2007 and early 2008. Based on current contracts, overall apartment prices fell by 20 percent or more from the third to the fourth quarter and the number of transactions fell sharply. Manhattan’s apartment rental market has also weakened substantially, with asking rents reported to be down across the board in November, and 2 to 6 percent lower than in June; moreover, an industry report maintains that the reported decline in asking rents likely understates the true weakness in the market, with a growing number of landlords offering concessions. The inventory of available rental units reportedly increased 17 percent between September and November, with a particularly large rise in the number of high-end listings.

Office markets in the District were mixed in the fourth quarter. Manhattan’s office vacancy rate climbed to its highest level in two years, while asking rents fell 8 percent from the third quarter and were down 5 percent from a year earlier. An industry contact notes marked weakening in December, in particular. However, office markets in the outlying areas were steady: Vacancy rates in northern New Jersey, Westchester and Fairfield County (CT) were little changed at high levels, while Long Island’s rate fell to a two-year low; asking rents were little changed from a year ago in all these areas. Office markets in upstate New York metro areas were steady to somewhat stronger in the fourth quarter, with vacancy rates down slightly and rents up modestly overall.

This entry was posted in Economics, New Development, New Jersey Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

158 Responses to January Beige Book

  1. grim says:

    From the Star Ledger:

    Corzine warns mayors of decrease in aid to towns

    In the bluntest terms he has used so far to convey next year’s doomsday budget proposal, Gov. Jon S. Corzine today told dozens of municipal mayors to expect less aid from the state — though he failed to say how much the aid pool would shrink.

    Corzine told the mayors and other municipal leaders he would be hard-pressed to sustain aid to towns, schools and perhaps hospitals and higher education for the fiscal year that starts July 1.

    However, how much aid will be on the chopping block remains guesswork. That won’t be known until the state determines the amount of tax revenue lost due to the recession and how much of the federal stimulus package the states can expect.

    Corzine is scheduled to introduce the fiscal 2010 budget on March 10.

  2. HEHEHE says:


  3. chicagofinance says:

    Apple – Steve Jobs taking medical leave

  4. Essex says:

    MACs suck…but I love my iPod. Good Luck there Steve.

  5. HEHEHE says:

    Re the double inverse ETF’s,

    If you aren’t long the market when it is collapsing then how else can GS and the rest of the crooks dump their shares into your hands. The past three months have been essentially a huge pump and dump scam in which they are further trying to rip off main street.

    Actually it goes all the way back to the summer of 2007 when the FED began taking kitchen sinks and bags of aluminum cans as collateral. All these banks biggest source of profits currently are trading profits. Who is providing them the funds to trade? It’s not their own as they are almost all insolvent. It’s the main street taxpayer.

    At the same time they are using your money to trade, they are trying to talk you into the WRONG SIDE OF THE TRADE!!!

  6. Essex says:

    P.S. I believe the blog officially jumped the shark today. Fresh blood needed.

  7. #5 – It was obvious from the keynote he gave back in Oct or Nov he was ill. He’s lost a lot of weight.
    It should be interesting to see how Apple navigates this. Job’s peronality/aura/reality distortion field has quite a bit to do with the company’s success.

  8. Clotpoll says:

    Mortgage guys in office already have new deadpool:

    Steve Jobs
    Mickey Rooney

  9. HEHEHE says:

    “Steve Jobs taking medical leave”

    Yeah, it’s a hormonal imbalance…pleaz

  10. Clotpoll says:

    HE (7)-

    Hey, go easy on GS. It’s hard having to create your own bagholders.

  11. #10 – No Abe Vigoda?

  12. jamil says:

    SC from previous thread: “It says nothing about his character. Do you think this guy prepares his own tax return? I’d bet that this is just a case of someone needing a new CPA.”

    Actually, Treasury secretary nominee did prepare his own taxes and failed to pay taxes. The next year he used CPA, who too failed to pay his taxes (still, the responsibility is with the filer, not with CPA). Naturally, this is not a problem, as MSM has concluded (it would be a problem only for GOP nominee)

  13. Clotpoll says:

    sx (8)-

    I think a lot of people just realized today that the gubmint and Wall St are the ones who’ve jumped the shark.

    Us, we’re doing just fine.

  14. Clotpoll says:

    tosh (13)-

    Man, that’s a great one. I’ll go tell the mortgage guys.

  15. Essex says:

    15…Well clot as much as I admire your posts….reading over today’s diatribes was simply depressing.

  16. Clotpoll says:

    Don’t get depressed at my diatribes; get depressed at the antics of the chimps who run everything.

  17. Citi is moving up the release of it’s earning report to Fri…
    Didn’t LEH do the same thing in order to forestall a sell-off? Or was it Bear…

  18. Essex says:

    Clot — I have seen nothing but chimps…chumps…and losers since I started taking breath….

  19. Clotpoll says:

    BTW, be sure to do whatever Cramer, GS and MS tell you to do.

    It is your duty as an American to cover their losses.

  20. Essex says:

    The difference today is that the losers really feel it now….and the even some winners are now losers….crazy?

  21. Clotpoll says:

    tosh (19)-

    Late ’08 redux:

    – moving up earnings reports
    – blaming short sellers
    – whispers of further capital needs

  22. AAPL down almost $10 on the Jobs news in after-hours.

    Also, Ricardo Montalban has gone on to Ceti Alpha 6.

  23. Clotpoll says:

    In the new America, the only right denied is our God-given right to fail.

  24. Essex says:

    Uh …. 5 o’clock…time for the bloggers to go home!

  25. sas says:

    looks like Jobs will cricle the drain..
    and so does AAPL?

    good chance.

    (but, i do like my MAC).


  26. sas says:

    i had to meet with a bunch of krauts from Germany today.

    lol, they thought they were so cool & cutt throat.

    ha, all wet behind the ears.

  27. sas says:

    “5 o’clock…time for the bloggers to go home!”

    that seems to be the case of late.


  28. I don’t know how I missed this.
    FT reporting Ireland in talks with the IMF;erin go broke.

  29. Jersey Jim says:

    Good night. I’m going to bed now.

  30. schabadoo says:

    has gone on to Ceti Alpha 6.

    If I said ‘5’ would that be too geeky, too pedantic, or both?

  31. Essex says:

    I used to work for Germans…they were a huge firm that was totally unprepared for business over here….they eventually completely failed and were bought by some folks I worked for before that. Go figure.

  32. #33 – I picked 6 since it was the destroyed planet. I’m glad someone got my attempted lol.
    This is probably a conversation best reserved for slashdot.org

  33. Barbara says:

    Ah opportunity strikes. Today my husband and I sent a proposal for a little scheme that very well should turn out to be quite profitable for our little family. Why now? Because the competition has no cash and no credit and now the parties involved are overjoyed that we are coming in, full cash.
    I don;t like bad times, don’t want to see people suffer but we have been in a holding pattern for so long now and I’m kind of glad that there is now some room for the little guy who saved his/her pennies.

  34. Sean says:

    Clot missed one. Ricardo Montalban has gone to fantasy island.

  35. sas says:

    got wind of 2 apartment complexes in manhattan (UWS) offering 2 months free rent, with signing of 1 year lease.

    haven’t heard of that in some time.


  36. sas says:

    i mean, i haven’t seen “months of free rents” in uws in awhile.

  37. scribe says:


    All these people who are suddenly in a rush to do a short sale based on a job loss …if they’re unemployed, how are they going to rent anything?

    If they were to just “sit tight” and not pay their mortgages, doesn’t it take quite a while now before the banks start the process because they’re so backlogged and the sheriffs are backlogged as well?

    Is it more that they want to get out of a bad marriage than a bad mortgage?

  38. HEHEHE says:


  39. jamil says:

    sas: 1 month free rent in UWS seems to be standard nowadays. Haven’t seen 2 months free rent yet, though. My lease is up in 2 months and I probably offer to stay here if I get 10% rent reduction (I hate moving).

    Not sure how the management company reacts to that. (I think it is good deal for them as no need to take a risk with a new tenant, do renovations worth >$1K and the rent would probably be >5% lower in anycase).

    Any advice for negotiating? Should I just write an informal, polite letter stating that due to my financial situation I’m unable to pay current rents, but with 10% rent reduction I can afford to stay – and argument that the deal is good for them too?

    If I don’t get it, I’ll move. There are plenty of availabilities in 10 block radius.

  40. sas says:

    “Any advice for negotiating? Should I just write an informal, polite letter stating that due to my financial situation I’m unable to pay current rents, but with 10% rent reduction I can afford to stay”

    yes, i would do that.
    in the meantime, get to know the doormen in the areas, they know where the good local deals are, whom is a shady landlord, who has competitive rents, etc…


  41. sas says:

    “10% rent reduction”

    if they balk, then also try no rent increase? if they increase in this market, there fools.

    if you are on the uws, you may be close to my townhouse.

  42. kettle1 says:

    dont worry, SAS

    I am still here ;)

  43. kettle1 says:


    what is your thought on the non-lethal directed energy weapons. Like i said last night some basic counter measures have the potential to be very effective against the directed energy weapons.

    any comment on that?

  44. zieba says:

    Nom De Plume:
    Unless this was you under a pen name again, someone is way too interested in what your plans are.

    SOB sas, right again.


  45. jamil says:

    sas: “if they balk, then also try no rent increase? if they increase in this market, there fools.”

    Rent increase is not a problem, but given the market conditions I want to benefit and lower my rent. Ideally, in this apt, but if necessary, then elsewhere in this area. I emailed to some no fee brokers few weeks ago and got immediately call from them (9.30pm – I didn’t answer..seem to be desperate). I prefer management companies as I hate dealing with private owners.

    W72 neighborhood…

  46. grim says:

    Bank of America circling the drain as well?

  47. skep-tic says:

    couple of points on the teacher debate:

    on paper, teachers work a lot fewer days than most people and fewer hours. however, if the job is done right, teachers end up working many more days than just school days and their hours are very long.

    when my wife was teaching, it was truly a 7 day a week job and she worked from basically 6:00AM (going over lessons before heading to school) until 9:00 or 10:00 at night, every night (calling parents, correcting papers, preparing for next day). her hours were more consistently hardcore than many bankers/lawyers.

    Second, those 6 hrs during the school day are much more strenuous than just about any job. You are never going to have a quiet day at the office working as a teacher.

    Finally, third, regarding pay. I am being serious here: pay is barely adequate. You can fill the spots at current pay levels, but it is not sufficient to lure people from other industries who may make great teachers and if you have to put a couple of kids in daycare it is not sufficient to keep you in your job.

    I know teaching isn’t the only job where this applies, but when you consider how many women are teachers it ends up having a very large impact in terms of turnover. One reason so many bad teachers hang on is because there isn’t a massive pool of more qualified people itching to replace them.

  48. grim says:

    From the WSJ:

    U.S. Negotiating More Aid for Bank of America

    The U.S. government is close to committing billions in additional aid to Bank of America Corp. as the nation’s largest bank by assets tries to digest its Jan. 1 acquisition of Merrill Lynch & Co., according to people familiar with the situation.

    The discussion began in mid-December when Bank of America, already the recipient of $25 billion in federal rescue funds, told the U.S. Treasury Department it was unlikely to complete its purchase of the ailing Wall Street securities firm because of Merrill’s larger-than-expected losses in the fourth quarter, according to a person familiar with the talks.

    Treasury, concerned the deal’s failure could affect the stability of U.S. financial markets, agreed to work with the Charlotte, N.C. lender on the “formulation of a plan” that includes new government capital. The terms are still being finalized, this person said, and details are expected to be announced with Bank of America’s fourth-quarter earnings, due out Jan. 20.

    Any possible arrangement might protect Bank of America from losses on Merrill’s bad assets. There would be a cap on the amount of losses the bank would have to absorb with the federal government being on the hook for the remainder, according to one person familiar with the matter.

    The possible deal is further evidence of the banking system’s delicate condition and its hunger for more capital, despite billions of dollars already invested in financial institutions by the federal government. Thus far, Bank of America has received $25 billion in federal rescue aid, including $10 billion Merrill Lynch would have received if the sale to Bank of America had not closed.

  49. Shore Guy says:


    It apears that the ONLY way Geitner could have underreported his social security tax is to LIE on line 6 of the IRS Form 1040SE. Whilst the form amy not be clear as day for Joe or Jane main street, I trust that anyone who rose to lead the Federal Reserve Bank of NY would NOT have had any trouble with it.

  50. #49 – I saw that too. Looks like it wants to test those lows again. C & BAC at the same time; How does Bernanke sleep?

  51. jamil says:

    Nice distraction..probably followed by some sort of military conflict

    Russian ‘gas war’ useful distraction from domestic woes (AFP)

    (MOSCOW) – The realities of economic crisis in Russia get little play these days on television, where — conveniently for Prime Minister Vladimir Putin — the gas dispute with Ukraine is the only story in town. As Putin has taken personal control of Russia’s “gas war” with Ukraine, touring gas facilities and meeting European politicians, the phrases “economic crisis” and “financial crisis” are barely heard on television channels that work in lockstep with the authorities and are Russians’ main news source.

  52. victorian says:

    “How does Bernanke sleep?”

    – Mustard flavored sleeping pills?

  53. Pat says:


    O.K….shhhh. Let’s see if this shows up in a bunker article somewhere.

  54. victorian says:

    “Any possible arrangement might protect Bank of America from losses on Merrill’s bad assets. There would be a cap on the amount of losses the bank would have to absorb with the federal government being on the hook for the remainder, according to one person familiar with the matter.”

    Dont worry, this is all to ensure that the Joe SixPack is able to get his payroll check this month. Gotta prevent systemic meltdown.

  55. Pat says:


    New US Policy:

    Bankers will have NO foreign language skills

    Wait. Make that no ENGLISH skills.

    Sh/t…I’m confused. Tell me again what would prevent another banking crisis?

  56. d2b says:

    Wonder if O wants to call in sick on Tuesday…

  57. comrade nom deplume says:

    [56] pat,

    What I find disturbing is that you knew where it was.

  58. Pat says:

    My husband does. We think it’s going to be complete gridlock around DC on Mon/Tues…worse than anyone predicts.
    Last minute people trying to get in the chute.

    I’m going to the Poconos with my daughter. Don’t want to be anywhere near the beltway.

    Nicholas, you’re not trying to get down to the Mall, are you?

  59. chicagofinance says:

    HEHEHE says:
    January 14, 2009 at 5:44 pm


  60. comrade nom deplume says:

    [47] zieba

    Viral marketing pays.

  61. comrade nom deplume says:


    Wonder if the casket will be lined with Rich Corinthian Leather?

    Or maybe Crushed Valor?

  62. Pat says:

    62 was RE Inauguration on Tuesday, not frying up a critter.

    Nom, I came across that when I was looking up a catfish recipe for how long to soak it in milk.

    But, honestly and without shame from my roots, I do know how to cook racoon. Stuff them, truss them and baste.

  63. Clotpoll says:

    Barb (36)-

    Shouldn’t have to apologize for that. Good on you.

  64. comrade nom deplume says:

    [66] pat,

    I think I visited your neck of the woods once. I seem to recall it was a dry county but folks knew where the stills were.

  65. yikes says:

    This BTW, was another reason for being across the Delaware. In an absolute worst-case, TEOTWAWKI scenario, folks in NE PA could block the Del. river bridges and the NE Ext. exits to refugee traffic. Won’t keep everyone out—when damming a river, there is always a spillway—but it will keep the unorganized masses at bay and segregated by natural barriers.

    Interesting. hadn’t thought of that, considering that the dump that is trenton is close to the D River, and we’re in Bucks actually close to the river (probably less than 20 miles), i wonder if i’d need to rally the troops and get down to the river and keep the northerners out …

  66. Clotpoll says:

    scribe (40)-

    You win the prize. Getting out and getting away are the real motivators on a lot of the short sales you’ll be seeing this year.

  67. Clotpoll says:

    Even though you can stretch a mortgage company to 18 months+ on a short sale (if you play the game), the truth is many folks just don’t have the nerve or the stomach for it.

    Amazing how many people who got mortgages under false pretenses can’t lie when their ass is really on the line.

    An accomplished liar should be able to perform ably in a wide variety of circumstances.

  68. comrade nom deplume says:

    [130] kettle (previous thread)

    As usual, you read my mind. I had planned on that for storage, but also for overflow living space. Again, however, the idea is to NOT need a bunker; once the battle is on your doorstep, you are under siege. And that can’t end well.

  69. Sean says:

    Montalban’s coffin will be lined in rich Corinthian leather. R.I.P.

  70. lostinny says:

    56 Pat
    Anything in there about what to do if it’s rabid?

  71. comrade nom deplume says:

    [69] yikes,

    problem is, you would need a militia of a couple hundred folks in order to accomplish that in shifts and provide enough security.

    Better to dynamite the spans.

  72. Clotpoll says:

    grim (51)-

    Costs a lot to transfuse the dead.

  73. HEHEHE says:


    Very nice!

  74. yikes says:

    Sean says:
    January 14, 2009 at 3:43 pm
    re: #102 Comrade – very true about blocking the bridges, after Katrina the residents of Gretna and other communities did just that.


    Holy cow sean, that’s a great find. i’ll have to print it out and share it with my bucks county compadres for when the SHTF.

    of course, i can cut a deal to sneak nice NJ RE REPORT readers into (hopefully) safe PA …

  75. jamil says:

    75 nom: or you could just blow up the bridges or mine it. no need for militia then. I knew my army specialty (explosives, anti-personnel mines) would be handy one day.

  76. Clotpoll says:

    Jamil is a walking anti-personnel device.

  77. PGC says:

    Interesting discussion with Meredith Whitney on CNBC.

    I can’t remember the exact wording, but it went something like this:

    MB: With C at $4 and GS at $76 should you sell?
    MW : Yes
    MB : (shocked) not just hold?
    MW : No, they will go lower before they come back. Stay out of financials.

  78. Clotpoll says:

    Ad hominem…it just feels so right…

  79. Clotpoll says:

    PGC (81)-

    Pretty optimistic of Whitney. She actually thinks C and GS might come back.

  80. Clotpoll says:

    I guess if Whitney starts talking up SKF or FAZ, she’ll be banned from CNBC.

  81. jamil says:


    “Geithner Accepted IMF Reimbursement for Taxes He Didn’t Pay”


  82. Clotpoll says:

    I’m liking Jamil more by the minute.

    We’re going to have a new admin. next week with a rudderless PPT (no Geithner).

    This should be fun.

  83. Clotpoll says:

    I smell .vix.

    And it ain’t Vapo-Rub.

  84. Pat says:

    Yikes, no need to sneak. Washington crossed the Delaware, you can, too.

    Just send a self-addressed, stamped return envelope to me at [snip] for your COMPLIMENTARY COPY of “How to cross the Delaware with a Suitcase on Your Head.”

  85. Clotpoll says:

    Wonder if anybody’s clued in O on the Caribbean trading desk thingy???

  86. Pat says:

    Clot, I am confident he has someone all over this blog and is well-informed.

  87. Sean says:

    re389 Clot – It is all in the book of secrets.

  88. kettle1 says:


    re bridges,

    the answer is obvious, drop the bridge. we all got that one. and now we are all on another watch list.

    the building: not meant to be a bunker, but the ability to potentially act as one is a convenient side effect. the simpler no frils ones can be ordered as a kit and built as DIY,

  89. kettle1 says:

    nom 72,

    also, that is why connections to the local community are important. it increases your level of safety as you are not seen as “interlopers” by the locals which would be bad in that scenario

  90. Clotpoll says:

    sean (91)-

    Thanks. I thought that stuff came with the Ovaltine secret decoder ring.


  91. yikes says:

    comrade nom deplume says:
    January 14, 2009 at 7:18 pm
    [69] yikes,

    problem is, you would need a militia of a couple hundred folks in order to accomplish that in shifts and provide enough security.

    Better to dynamite the spans.

    Who are you? LOL LOL
    My wife and i are cracking up.

    The delaware isn’t that deep, either, so the blown up bridges probably wouldn’t do that much.

    Just curious … can dynamite be purchased legally?

  92. Clotpoll says:

    vodka (92)-

    GSMLS should add a search field for “Suitable as Bunker”.

  93. Clotpoll says:

    yikes (95)-

    Probably in your new home state.

    If not, go to the fireworks joint next to the first exit off 78. I think 8 M-80s = 1 stick dynamite.

  94. Hey, Citi is sending me emails advertising CD rates!
    Surprisingly reminiscent of WaMu at the end.

  95. kettle1 says:

    yikes, 95

    now you are asking questions that get you put on watch lists…….

    shallow doesnt matter so much. drop the span and you do not have a high flow rate of people on a smooth road. small groups of people crossing a river is a very different story then a mass exodus across an intact bridge.

    you can probably now celebrate you addition to the watch list of which ever 3 letter agencies are assigned to this blog. ignore the black helicopters, you will get used to it

  96. yikes says:

    NJREREPORT after dark is getting … dark

    for those of you who have seen I Am Legend … anyone give thought to building some kind of ‘safe room’ in your basement?

    Ideally, it would have an escape hatch leading away from the house … i dont know how realistic that is, but it’s interesting to ponder.

    i’ll be honest: I dont forsee any of the scenarios that are talked about on here actually happening. bad? yeah. but not blowing up bridges and anarchy and chaos. problems? sure. but a complete breakdown of society? Just dont see it happening.

    i just want to know what the heck the plans are to stem hyperinflation. obviously, there’s something

  97. kettle1 says:


    i just want to know what the heck the plans are to stem hyperinflation. obviously, there’s something …


    probably not mad max, but food riots are a real possibility depending on how things go. the point is to basically have an insurance policy against social upheaval. better to drop a few bucks on planning then not do so and need it.

  98. yikes says:

    If not, go to the fireworks joint next to the first exit off 78. I think 8 M-80s = 1 stick dynamite.

    reminds me of my first july 4th in NYC .. musta been the early 90s. we were hanging out in the streets of queens with some relatives and these 2 kids bring out m80s. now we’re just a couple kids from the burbs of DC and we’ve never seen anythin like this …

    kid lets of one in the middle of the street and it sounded like a bomb hit. three car alarms went off and people went running for cover. this was also around 4 pm, in broad daylight.

    good times.

  99. victorian says:

    Watch this video. Kohn grilled in the Congress. Truly Shameful.


  100. Sean says:

    Silo Home up in Saranac Lake is still for sale about 300 miles north of Bergen county.


    It is real, the price was dropped to 550k a few years ago still did not sell.

    Might be a good investment, there is plenty of fresh water, area is sparely populated there are millions of state park acreage with lots of tasty critters.

  101. kettle1 says:


    i hear NY raccoon is some of the best!

  102. Confused In NJ says:

    The cost of the current Presedential Election (Greatest in History), coupled with the enormous cost of the Presidential Inaugaration, brings to mind a Historical Parallel, Nero Fiddling while Rome Burned. If “O” really wanted to instill positive change and lead by example, he would minimize the expense and fanfare, roll up his sleeves, and get to work, not party as business as usual.

  103. Confused In NJ says:

    50. Second, those 6 hrs during the school day are much more strenuous than just about any job. You are never going to have a quiet day at the office working as a teacher.

    I think for the $100/mo I got for a 6 hr fire fight in Nam, my job was more difficult and I had no Tenure or Good Benefits. Of course, I was able to shoot the enemy, teachers can’t, although parents can’t shoot the teacher either, so it’s a wash.

  104. Cindy says:

    Sorry that I messed up the figures on my post this AM. I was pretty hot, in a hurry and….well…I do teach second grade.

  105. Essex says:

    That silo home is awesome…but what if you WERE on the Russian target list…..funny.

  106. Sean says:

    Essex all of NY Metro is a target.

  107. grim says:

    If “O” really wanted to instill positive change and lead by example, he would minimize the expense and fanfare, roll up his sleeves, and get to work, not party as business as usual.

    Interesting point…

  108. Clotpoll says:

    Cindy (108)-

    Your Lexis/Nexis score got a big bump today.

  109. Essex says:

    no doubt sean….but the Wachtung mtn range will protect me from the major rays!

  110. Essex says:

    Cindy…..this board’s rants were embarrassing this morning…the whole lynch a teacher thing is pathetic.

  111. lisoosh says:

    No point in blocking the bridges – Philadelphia has plenty of mob potential right on that side of the Deleware.

  112. Cindy says:

    (112) Clot – Nah, they were right. I messed up all the figures.

    They were right to call me on that…I’m a teacher.

    Gotta catch some grub…

  113. yikes says:

    Sean says:
    January 14, 2009 at 8:46 pm
    Essex all of NY Metro is a target.

    let’s say those cowards hit us in NY again. how far out do you have to be to survive it?

    and really, enough with the helicoptors and watch lists … that’s primarily reserved for (hopefully) actual threats, not people who are looking to protect themselves

  114. Essex says:

    Blast or Notification of Major Exposure
    b. Gather any protective equipment or survival items you may need. Think immediate survival; do not gather up such items as photo albums, jewelry, pets or anything else that does not contribute to your living past the next five minutes.
    c. Improvised Shelter:
    -Freeway drain culvert.
    -Large abandoned stone or brick buildings. Preferably in a basement, large underground parking structures in major urban centers are to be used warily. The buildings above may collapse at a later date if incident is a premeditated attack. If problem is a large-scale accident then such structures are ideal for shelter. It would benefit you, (if you are in an area that is near a large nuclear facility such as a plutonium processing facility or major nuclear reactor it would not hurt to locate such a place prior to an actual need.)
    -Cave or tunnel covered with three or more feet of soil or dirt.
    -Foxhole at least 4 feet deep. (Remove topsoil within two foot radius of foxhole lip.
    d. Radiation Shielding Efficiencies:
    -One thickness, (i.e. listed measurement is considered a single thickness,) reduces radiation exposure by ½. Every additional thickness beyond that reduces the exposure by ½ as well.
    -Use these while determining the effectiveness of a given shelter.
    Iron/Steel: .7 inches
    Brick: 2.0 inches
    Concrete: 2.2 inches
    Earth: 3.3 inches
    Cinderblock: 5.3 inches
    Ice: 6.8 inches
    Wood (Soft): 8.8 inches Note: Assume all wood is soft.
    Snow: 20.3 inches
    e. Shelter Survival:
    -Keep contaminated materials out of the shelter. In the event of good weather bury contaminated clothing outside of the shelter and recover later. If weather is bad then shake clothing strongly or beat with branches. DO NOT WRING OUT.
    f. Personal Hygiene:
    -Wash entire body with soap and copious quantities of any available water. Pay particular attention to fingernails and hairy areas of the body.
    -If no water is available wipe all exposed skin surfaces with a clean cloth or uncontaminated soil.
    -If conditions are dusty or fallout is still active: be sure to keep the entire body covered. Use appropriate respiratory protection or at a minimum keep a heavy cloth over the nose and mouth, be sure to wear goggles at all times. DO NOT SMOKE in a fallout affected area at any time.
    g. Daily Radiation Time Table (Assuming no other equipment or notification.)
    1-3 days: complete isolation. (30 minutes on third day allowable for acquisition of drinking water.)
    4-7 days: Brief exposure. (30 minutes maximum.)
    9-12 days: Brief exposure (1 hour per day.)
    12-15 days: Light exposure (2-4 hours per day.)
    15+ days: Moderate to normal exposure, dependant on scale of initial incident.

  115. jamil says:

    106 confused “with the enormous cost of the Presidential Inaugaration”

    funny you mentioned this. MSM is happy with the costs..in 2004 MSM went ballistic when Bush has (modest) inaugural. MSM “journalists” calculated how many tsunami victims could be helped etc and demanded that it cancelled.

    Now it “time to celebrate”..”extravaganza”. Maybe economic times are better so extravagant party is now ok?

    or maybe MSM is just a biased propaganda tool?

  116. Essex says:

    Meh…it is expensive…but it is also some major history that a lot of people feel really good about. Plus….Bush is gone….(do happy dance)

  117. lisoosh says:

    Increased cost of this inauguration is because people actually want to go.

  118. james says:

    LOL on fall out instructions. Just so you know. Here in NJ you are pretty much guaranteed to be vaporized so there is no need to go through the trouble.

    Here is the primary targets for our area. Enjoy reading.

    NEW JERSEY (community info and maps)
    Fort Dix-McGuire AFB complex (Trenton-Wrightstown), Lakehurst NAS, Fort Monmouth, Perth Amboy.
    McKee City, Philadelphia (area within 10 mjles of the Delaware River from Pennsville to Cherry Hill and within 15 miles of the river from Cherry Hill to Trenton), Rockaway (area east of a line from Franklin to Somerville to the state line), Trenton.
    Colt’s Neck, Lakehurst, Long Branch, Middletown, Millville.

  119. lisoosh says:

    I always assumed instant vaporization beat out dying of radiation sickness in an apocalyptic wasteland anyway.

    This discussion was had a couple of years ago, no?

  120. Clotpoll says:

    Freak out in a moonage daydream, oh yeah!

  121. Outofstater says:

    Oh brother. Enough with the nuclear stuff. Here, go get these from the US Govt, if they are still in print:
    “In Time of Emergency: A Citizen’s Handbook on Nuclear Attack, Natural Disasters.” US DoD, Office of Civil Defense H-4, March 1968. And my favorite: “The Effects of Nuclear Weapons” Compiled and edited by Samuel Glasstone and Philip J. Dolan US DoD and ERDA, 1977. This one has a cool “Nuclear Bomb Effects Computer” in an envelope in the back of the book so you can estimate all kinds of gruesome effects. Have fun guys.

  122. Clotpoll says:

    This is the information I keep coming back here for.

  123. jamil says:

    soon you all will get good training for the militia purposes!

    Rangel to reintroduce military draft measure

    Rep. Charles Rangel (D-N.Y.) likely will introduce his controversial legislation to reinstate the draft again this year, but he will wait until after the economic stimulus package is passed.


  124. jamil says:

    funny..In 2004, Dan Rather and CBS “News” threatened people by claiming that vote for Bush means reinstating the draft. They even interviewed “concerned mother” about that (who happened to be local Kerry campaign manager. naturally that piece of info was not revealed by CBS “News”.

  125. Stu says:


    You continue to be annoying.

  126. jamil says:

    Stu: be careful..I may be your drill sergeant.

  127. PGC says:


    How do you plan to keep the peace on this compound. How do you stop the boredom. Who controls the food, and how do resolve disputes when all are armed?

  128. victorian says:

    Jamil –

    Did you have an unpleasant experience with a Dem when you were a kid? I wonder what else could make a person so dedicated against an entity.

  129. Stu says:

    At least I stopped my partisan attacks once the election ended.

  130. Essex says:

    Poor little Adolf Hitler…..

  131. Essex says:

    Stu’s all up in yo grill Jamil….u gonna take dat? Blow his azz up….say stu…where’s gator? Dat chick split on ur azz yo?

  132. still_looking says:


    don’t forget the (KI) potassium iodide to protect everyone’s thyroids.

    In most radiation exposures, 90% of the contaminated stuff is removed with the removal of clothing and shoes.

    >30 Gy (grays) you will die.

    10-20 Gy you will be gravely ill suffer central nervous system illness and later gastrointestinal and hematopoietic (blood/bone marrow) problems. you may or may not die.

    5-15 Gy you will have the ill effects but will have a better chance of survival.

    Burns, skin necrosis and blistering occur later and have secondary infection problems.

    all in all, it’s ugly.

    Was learning that stuff today along with other thrilling medical articles we covered.



  133. Stu says:

    What the heck happens here at night. The blog seems to turn into Thunderdome. Although I’m shorting the cr*p out of China and commercial RE, I really don’t think we will get to the point of detonating Delaware River crossings. If any of you guys truly believe in any of this, well why don’t you all just pool your money and buy some long-dated options against the indexes. Trust me…if the only way to cross the Delaware is George Washington style, you would be much better off taking what ever you planned to spend on your compound and just sink it all into gold.

  134. Clotpoll says:

    Great, Stu. Start the gold talk again…

    Every agency there is must be monitoring this site.

  135. Clotpoll says:

    I wonder how long the CIA will have to thumbscrew me before I admit to them I haven’t been kidding about anything.

  136. lisoosh says:

    136- see, instant vaporization is much better.

  137. yikes says:

    PGC says:
    January 14, 2009 at 10:03 pm

    How do you plan to keep the peace on this compound. How do you stop the boredom.

    i would guess board games? you know, like sorry or stratego. i also have UNO in my go bag.

  138. lisoosh says:

    Just take a moment to image living on a compound where the only inhabitants are “well off Manhattanites” in survivalist mode.


    Sounds like a bad screenplay.

  139. Stu says:

    Wake up to the PPI tomorrow! Should be a good ride. If it shows serious deflation. Look out! Australia and Hong Kong are both down about 5%. Sweet dreams Clot!

  140. yikes says:

    Stu says:
    January 14, 2009 at 10:26 pm
    What the heck happens here at night. The blog seems to turn into Thunderdome. Although I’m shorting the cr*p out of China and commercial RE, I really don’t think we will get to the point of detonating Delaware River crossings.

    yeah, we’d be much better off if Frank and Bi came back so we could kick those clowns around. This Jamil guy is grating; i read in the paper Pretorious moved to Ohio and is an actuary.

    Hey, at least we’re not talking about cars.

  141. Stu says:

    “Sounds like a bad screenplay.”

    Sounds like a great screenplay!

  142. Ben says:

    I forget where the site is but some guy from Argentina basically described everything he did and he wished had done prior during Argentina’s hyper inflationary collapse where the shtf.

    From what I remember, he wished he had stocked up on food. He said having chickens in the yard are great because they just keep laying eggs. He recommended certain guns to protect yourself. He wished he had bought a bunch of gold jewelry to trade. He said that a good video game or movie collection is very important because you do have to still have some sort of entertainment or enjoyment. He also recommending getting good guard and watch dogs. He said a lot of people would have Beagles because they would sound the alarm if any stranger was within 50 ft. of the house. Oh yeah, and don’t count on the police to protect you.

  143. Stu says:

    Bedtime with Roubini?

    The Latest Bear Market Sucker’s Rally is Losing Its Steam as an Onslaught of Awful Macro and Earnings News Takes Its Toll

    Nouriel Roubini | Jan 14, 2009

    I have been predicting for a while that the most recent bear market sucker’s rally would lose its steam and – like the previous bear market rallies in the last 18 months – US and global equities prices would head again towards new lows.

    Let me now explain why…

    As my work and the one of our research team at RGE Monitor predicts (we will publish later this week our 2009 Global Economic Outlook, a 75 page research piece for our clients and we recently published our US outlook) this will be the worst US recession in the last 50 years and the worst synchronized global recession in decades.

    For a few weeks since late November equity markets ignored the onslaught of much worse than expected macro news (and all the new were really worse than awful) and had a nice 25% bear market sucker’s rally. But the drumbeat of terrible – and worse than expected – macro news and earnings news and financial news has finally taken a toll on the delusional market belief that the worst was over for financial markets and for equity markets and that the US and global economy would recover in the second half of 2009. So equity prices have already reversed more than half of their most recent bear market rally as the lousy macro news have finally shocked in the last week the wishful thinkers.

    Indeed, the retail sales figures published today confirmed a shopped-out, saving-less and debt-burdened US consumer is now faltering as job losses, income losses, fall in home wealth, fall in equity wealth, high and rising debt and debt servicing ratios and a severe credit crunch take a severe toll on the ability of consumers to spend. And reduction in spending and deleveraging of the US consumer will take years to rebuild the savings rate of a household sector now hit by a severe shock to its net worth (as equity and home values fall while debts have been rising) and shocked in its ability to generate income as job losses mount and the unemployment rate surges.

    Our research at RGE Monitor suggests that the US and global recession will continue at least all the way until Q4 of 2009 (a nasty 24 months U-shaped recession) and that the recovery in 2010-11 will be very weak with growth in the 1% range that is well below a potential of 2.75%. And we cannot rule out that a more severe L-shaped stag-deflation (as in Japan in the 1990s) will take hold. Indeed, as I argued recently:

    While the odds of a systemic financial meltdown have been reduced by the actions of the Group of Seven and other economies, severe vulnerabilities remain.

    The credit crunch will persist and spread beyond mortgages. Deleveraging will continue, as thousands of hedge funds — many of which will go bust — and other leveraged players are forced to sell assets into illiquid and distressed markets, thus causing price declines and driving more insolvent financial institutions out of business. Credit losses will mount as the recession deepens. And a few emerging-market economies will certainly enter a full-blown financial crisis.

    So 2009 will be a painful year of global recession and further financial stresses, losses and bankruptcies. Currently, the probability of an L-shaped, stag-deflation is now rising to a third, while the probability of a severe U-shaped recession is two-thirds. Only aggressive, coordinated and effective policy actions by advanced and emerging-market countries can ensure that the global economy starts to recover — however slowly –in 2010, rather than entering a more protracted period of economic stagnation.

    So while our benchmark scenarios sees a severe U-shaped global recession with very weak growth recovery in 2010 we cannot exclude the possibility of a worse outcome, i.e. an L-shaped recession that – in our view – has at least a one third probability. So the worst is ahead of us rather than behind us for the real economy and for financial markets. With my forecast of 2009 earnings per share for S&P500 firms being in the 50 to 60 dollars range and with P/E ratio likely to be in the 10 to 12 range given a severe global recession the S&P500 could bottom – at some point in 2009 – at best at a level of 720 and, in a worse scenario, as low as 500 or 600. So, the worst is indeed still ahead of us.

  144. PGC says:

    #142 Lisoosh

    You sum it up perfectly. It’s Huis Clos meets “The Real World”

    You could call it “Satre on steroids”

    “Hell is other people.”

  145. PGC says:

    “Hey, at least we’re not talking about cars.”

    I just put a nice set of Michellen X-ice Xi2 on Mrs PGC’s miniva.

    Just in time for the snow.

  146. Sean says:

    A Draft? Now that is Change!

  147. Outofstater says:

    #147 Gee, Stu, that’s better than a cup of hot cocoa and a bedtime story. Goodnight all. We can play more Armageddon tomorrow.

  148. chicagofinance says:

    HEHEHE says:
    January 14, 2009 at 7:21 pm
    Very nice!


  149. lisoosh says:

    Draft might do a world of good to the entitlement generation. Can’t say I’m against it.

  150. chicagofinance says:

    l: did you see this?
    They took the shot just down the street from the US Tennis Center….in my home town….

  151. Barbara says:

    There are things worse than death.
    Just sayin’

  152. DL says:

    Lots of folks here were buying iodine when Chernobyl blew in 1986 and the wind blew the cloud over W. Europe. Two years ago I had lunch about 25 miles south of the reactor. The Ukrainians told us it was safe.

  153. lostinny says:

    155 Chifi

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