From the Record:
Housing defaults doubled in N.J.
About 62,500 properties in New Jersey faced foreclosure filings in 2008 — twice the number in 2007, RealtyTrac reported Wednesday. Foreclosures rose about 180 percent in Bergen and Passaic counties.
…
At New Jersey Citizen Action, which counsels distressed homeowners, the jump in foreclosure filings in 2008 came as no surprise to Executive Director Phyllis Salowe-Kaye.“And 2009 is going to be even worse,” she said, because many adjustable loans are scheduled to reset at higher payment levels this year.
“Add to that the fact that home values continue to drop, and the number of foreclosure filings is going to be through the roof in 2009,” she said. “I think there is a lot of distress and hardship out there for New Jersey families.”
In Bergen County, 3,912 properties had foreclosure filings in 2008, up from 1,411 in 2007. In Passaic, 5,044 properties had filings, up from 1,790 the previous year. Hudson County had 3,950 filings, up from 884 the previous year, and Morris had 2,011, up from 838.
RealtyTrac measures all foreclosure filings, ranging from a lender’s legal notice that a borrower is in default all the way through a sheriff’s sale of the property. Many homeowners who receive default notices are able to resolve the situation without losing their homes at a sheriff’s auction.
…
The state has also set up a $12.5 million mediation program that will help borrowers in trouble negotiate with their lenders. Borrowers can call 888-989-5277 or visit NJForeclosureMediation.org for information.The toll-free line, which opened Monday, was swamped with more than 5,000 calls a day in its first two days, according to Melville Miller, head of Legal Services of New Jersey in Edison, which operates the line. Because of the volume, many callers have not been able to get through.
“This is a pretty profound human cry for help,” Miller said.
From Bloomberg:
Freddie Foreclosures, Eviction Plans Continue During Moratorium
Freddie Mac continues to foreclose on homeowners and make plans to evict them, drawing fire from legal aid groups who say the moves violate the spirit of a moratorium the company agreed to in November.
While Freddie has suspended sales of foreclosed properties and isn’t locking people out of their homes, the mortgage- finance company continues to initiate court cases against homeowners and pursue existing cases, company spokesman Brad German said.
…
Freddie “has ordered its national network of mortgage servicers and foreclosure attorneys to suspend all foreclosure sales and evictions,” the company said in its November statement.
“The actual sale, the actual eviction has stopped, but the process continues,” German, the Freddie spokesman, said yesterday. “The moratorium does not affect the normal process of legal filings. But no one is being evicted, the homes are not being sold,” he said.
From MarketWatch:
U.S. foreclosure filings in 2008 rose 81% from 2007
U.S. foreclosure filings in 2008 rose 81% from 2007 and tripled from 2006, RealtyTrac reported on Wednesday. A total of nearly 3.16 million foreclosure filings — measured by default notices, auction-sale notices, and bank repossessions — were reported in 2008. The Irvine, Calif., consultant also said that 1.84% of all U.S. housing units –1 of every 54 — received at least one foreclosure filing during the year, up from 1.03% in 2007. In December, foreclosure filings were reported on more than 303,000 U.S. properties. That’s up 17% from November and 41% from the year-earlier month, RealtyTrac reported. In the fourth quarter, foreclosure activity rose 40% from the year-earlier quarter. “Clearly the foreclosure-prevention programs implemented to date have not had any real success in slowing down this foreclosure tsunami,” Chief Executive Officer James J. Saccacio said in a statement.
From Bloomberg:
Foreclosures in U.S. Rose 81%, Topping 2.3 Million Last Year
U.S. foreclosure filings jumped 81 percent last year as falling house prices, tighter mortgage lending and the longest recession in a quarter century battered property owners, RealtyTrac Inc. said.
More than 2.3 million properties got a default or auction notice, or were seized by lenders, the Irvine, California-based seller of default data said today. That’s the most RealtyTrac has documented in four years of recordkeeping. Filings rose 41 percent in December from a year earlier to 303,410.
…
Foreclosure prevention programs offered by U.S. banks and state laws that temporarily delayed property seizures “have not had any real success in slowing down this foreclosure tsunami,” James Saccacio, RealtyTrac’s chief executive officer, said in a statement. One in 54 housing units, or 1.8 percent of homes, received at least one filing in 2008.
About 55 percent of loans modified in the first quarter of 2008 were 30 days or more delinquent six months later, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Office of Thrift Supervision said in a Dec. 22 report.
Proposed changes to bankruptcy laws that would allow judges to reduce the principal borrowers owe on their mortgages also may fail to stem foreclosures, according to Glenn Boyd, head of U.S. asset-backed securities strategy at Barclays Capital in New York.
Some borrowers will re-default while others whose income is too high to qualify for the plan will walk away from their obligations if neighbors get bailed out, he said.
From the Wall Street Journal:
Rates Fall, but Refinancings Are Limited
By JAMES R. HAGERTY and RUTH SIMON
Interest rates on fixed-rate mortgage loans for prime borrowers have fallen to below 5%, the lowest level since the 1950s, triggering a wave of mortgage-loan inquiries from borrowers eager to refinance. But lenders and mortgage companies say that as many as half of the people who want to refinance can’t meet the credit hurdles and won’t get approved.
The average interest rate on new 30-year fixed-rate mortgages in the week ended Jan. 9 was 4.89%, down from 5.07% a week earlier and nearly 6.5% at the end of October, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Mortgage rates have been falling steeply since late November, when the Federal Reserve announced a plan to buy as much as $500 billion of mortgage securities. Demand for such securities has a major effect on rates mortgage lenders charge to consumers.
While the low rates haven’t caused a stampede of people seeking loans to purchase homes, they have set off a wave of refinancing applications. An index measuring refinancings is at its highest level since June 2003, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. At GMAC Mortgage, mortgage applications are up more than 75% in January from their levels two months ago, a company spokeswoman said.
But a large percentage of applications are being turned down. Only about a third of U.S. mortgage debt outstanding is likely to qualify for refinancing, said Doug Duncan, chief economist of Fannie Mae.
Nearly 70% of borrowers don’t make the cut, he said, most often because their credit isn’t good enough or they don’t have sufficient home equity. A significant number of homeowners owe more than the current value of their homes, a situation sometimes known as being “under water.” Others can’t profitably refinance, often because they hold jumbo mortgages, those above the $625,000 limit for loans that can be bought or guaranteed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac in the highest-cost areas.
“The refinance boom is mostly impacting the people who need help the least,” said Scott Stern, chief executive of Lenders One, an alliance of mortgage bankers. “These are people who have good credit, who have had been in their homes a long time, people who already have conforming fixed-rate loans or government financing.”
(Emphasis added)
Welcome to the Top-10!
From the AFP:
US foreclosures spike 81 pct in 2008: RealtyTrac
Nevada, Florida, Arizona had the highest state foreclosure rates in 2008.
…
Florida was number two, with 4.52 percent of its housing units, followed by Arizona, with 4.49 percent.
…
Rounding out the top 10 state foreclosure rates were California, Colorado, Michigan, Ohio, Georgia, Illinois and New Jersey.
From the WSJ:
Help Wanted — at New Jersey’s Crowded Unemployment Office
There aren’t a lot of job openings in New Jersey lately — except, of course, in the unemployment office.
With the state suffering through its highest unemployment rate since 1996, New Jersey’s Department of Labor and Workforce found itself unprepared to handle the deluge of people filing for unemployment benefits. Those calling the department were met with wait times topping 40 minutes.
…
New Jersey’s Department of Labor and Workforce had already planned on adding 77 new hires in its unemployment offices late last year, but that turned out to be insufficient. So David Socolow, the commissioner, asked Gov. Jon Corzine for help. Using a federal contingency fund, the department brought on a second round of hires: 44 new employees, and 86 existing state workers who are being promoted into the department.
Short Sale v. Foreclosure
“While it isn’t unusual to see both short sales and bank-owned properties listed at prices far below those offered by traditional sellers, don’t expect them to sell for much more than 20% below asking price, says Fort Lauderdale, Fla., broker Scott Coloney, who has assembled a “foreclosure response team” of financial and legal partners to facilitate distress sales. In fact, properties in good condition and in desirable locations may even spark bidding wars. “So low-balling is a waste of time,” he says.”
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123152642129768749.html
“The refinance boom is mostly impacting the people who need help the least,” said Scott Stern, chief executive of Lenders One, an alliance of mortgage bankers. “These are people who have good credit, who have had been in their homes a long time, people who already have conforming fixed-rate loans or government financing.”
my feeling is these people should be rewarded the govt. isn’t spending billions on bailing them out. problem is we reward stupidity in this country
The Fort Monmounth closing is bad news for Monmouth. Double-whammy of both recession-related losses along with the BRAC job losses.
From the Baltimore Sun:
BRAC migration to Md. has begun
They are here and, in some cases, fairly easy to spot.
The first of thousands of families relocating to Maryland with the nationwide military realignment known as BRAC have arrived from New Jersey.
“That might be why New York Giants’ flags are flying in Ravens country,” said Bruce England, executive director of the Susquehanna Workforce Network, which provides employment resources and programs to businesses in Harford and Cecil counties.
Fort Monmouth in New Jersey is closing and transferring many of its jobs to Aberdeen Proving Ground. About 300 New Jersey families have relocated to Maryland in the past six months, England said. More than 700 are expected this year, with the largest move set for 2010, a year ahead of the required September 2011 BRAC completion date.
PLAN B: RENT
The first open house was right around July 4,” says Peterson, the tech director of the photography and imaging department at NYU. “No one came.”
At 1,600 square feet and $1.195 million, the two-bedroom, one-bathroom apartment was $750 per square foot – well-priced, Peterson felt. So he waited. After a few months with no buyer interest, Peterson and his broker, Kenny Blumstein, a senior vice president at the Corcoran Group, lowered the asking price to $1.05 million.
They waited another few months and still there were no takers. So they dropped the price again to $999,999.
“We almost had a deal at the current asking price [$999,999] when it was higher priced . . . at $1.05 million,” says Blumstein.
“But the market hadn’t quite done what it was doing now and [Peterson] decided he didn’t want to go low. In retrospect, he should have.”
And now he’s being asked to go even lower.
“The last offer I got was for $850,000, which leaves me tremendously in debt,” Peterson says. “And now my broker is recommending that we lower to $850,000, which I don’t want to do if I can help it.”
http://www.nypost.com/seven/01082009/realestate/plan_b__rent_149134.htm
Ft. Monmouth. Used to live near there. Stone Pony, Springsteen.
This board is good at spotting overpriced markets, goods and services.
Orchestra leadership in flux, financial picture gloomy.
“As it faces its most serious financial threats in years, the Philadelphia Orchestra yesterday began a leadership transition that will bring, in quick succession, change to the executive office, board room and podium.”
“Should the current musicians’ contract – which calls for a minimum salary of $131,040 next season (this season’s is $124,800) – be reopened to help cut expenses?”
http://www.philly.com/inquirer/magazine/20090115_Orchestra_leadership_in_flux__financial_picture_gloomy.html
Delta Mulls 2,000 Job Cuts Via Early Retirement
http://www.cnbc.com/id/28670117
Roubini on CNBC,
Losses will be 3 Trillion. Half by US banks.
Problems of Citi & BOA have made them insolvent
We need much more, most severe banking crising.
There is recession even in China. It is Synchronized global recession.
Government has to nationalize good part of US banking system.
In 2009, Equities will go down by 25% more. Commodities will be down. Its good to be in Cash or Bond.
Stu says:
January 14, 2009 at 10:35 pm
“Sounds like a bad screenplay.”
Sounds like a great screenplay!
Stu,
I saw a play at the princeton theater that was based on such a premise. It sucked! but then again not many people accuse me of “high culture”, so what do i know.
ECB cuts rate 50 bps, down to 2%.
Yay a rate cut! That will improve everything:)
For the SRS holder out there:
CRE Loan Distress Levels Escalating Rapidly
Commercial real estate distress levels are escalating rapidly. CoStar says Volume of Delinquent/Defaulted CMBS Loans Could Triple in 2009.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
From MarketWatch:
Bankrate: 30-year fixed mortgage rate declines again
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate dropped to 5.28% from 5.33% a week ago, according to Bankrate.com’s weekly national survey released Thursday. The average 15-year fixed-rate mortgage rose slightly to 4.89% from 4.85%, while the average jumbo 30-year fixed rate increased to 7.07%. Adjustable mortgage rates declined, with the average average 5/1 ARM falling to 5.51%.
JPMorgan Profit Drops 76 Percent on $2.9 Billion of Writedowns
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aM5FfkHGrRyw&refer=home
SocGen out with a scary note this morning…
From Reuters:
Depression ahead, prepare for stock rout-SocGen
Societe Generale said on Thursday that the United States’ economy looks likely to enter a depression and China’s could implode.
In a highly bearish note, veteran cross asset strategist Albert Edwards said investors should now cut equity exposure after a turn-of-the-year rally and prepare for a rout.
He predicted that the S&P 500 index of U.S. stocks could be set for a fall of nearly 70 percent from recent levels.
Edwards also raised the danger of a global trade war with China.
“While economic data in developed economies increasingly reflects depression rather than a deep recession, the real surprise in 2009 may lie elsewhere,” Edwards wrote.
I love the WSJ article today that says the only company hiring in NJ is the NJ Unemployment office.
Good news for New Jersey, not so good news for property values in Midtown-direct towns. Many of these “train towns” demanded a premium for housing due to the fact that they had “one-seat” access to NYC. So what happens when access opens up to many more towns within the region?
N.Y.-N.J. rail tunnel receives final federal approval
The work also will translate into easier commutes, with fewer delays and transfers. Plans call for one-seat commutes to New York for NJ Transit customers on seven rail lines: Main/Bergen County, Port Jervis, Pascack Valley, Montclair-Boonton west of Montclair State University, Morris & Essex west of Dover, Raritan Valley and North Jersey Coast south of Long Branch.
Station capacity will be added in Manhattan, with wider platforms and more escalators. The new tracks will provide direct access to New York City subway lines and PATH trains.
I love the WSJ article today that says the only company hiring in NJ is the NJ Unemployment office.
Was mentioned here two days ago.
bairen says:
January 13, 2009 at 6:20 am
Foreclosure and unemployment call centers, NJ’s new growth industry.
grim: you didn’t lead with the Depeche Mode news???
Xanadu
n.
An idyllic, beautiful place.
[After Xanadu, a place in “Kubla Khan,” a poem by Samuel Taylor Coleridge.]
From the AP:
Xanadu contaminated, report finds
A report says the site of the giant Xanadu shopping and entertainment center under construction in the Meadowlands is contaminated.
A project engineer says the environmental hazards could remain.
The report, first described in The Record of Bergen County, says the East Rutherford complex has leaking fuel tanks and underground pools of water with elevated levels of cancer-causing compounds.
Compare Ricardo Montalban to today’s ingrate US hating Hollywood “stars”:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cYc7EwpvEF4
130k+ minimun for the lowest paid of the philly orchestra, who’s that, the guy who plays the triangle???
what does first chair violin get, 250k? please
they seemed to have enough sponsorship, they just paid themselves too well.
But the housing market will bottom in 2010. They never provide rationale for the conclusion. (Will consumers be out of debt by then; will banks be lending by then; will deflation be under control by then?) The date just seems far enough away to be possible by then.
From MarketWatch:
U.S. weekly initial jobless claims rise 54,000 to 524,000
U.S. 4-week average claims down 8,000 to 518,500
U.S. continuing jobless claims fall 115,000 to 4.5 million
U.S. 4-week avg continuing claims up 27,500 to 4.5 million
From MarketWatch:
Empire state factory index contracts for 9th straight month
Manufacturing activity in the New York area contracted for the ninth straight month in January, the New York Federal Reserve Bank said Thursday. The bank’s Empire State Manufacturing index rose slightly to negative 22.2 in January from a record low reading of negative 27.9 in December. The overall picture of the factory sector in the region did not change much. The new orders, shipments, and unfilled orders indexes also remained near their recent record lows. The indexes for prices paid and prices received were negative for a second consecutive month, and employment indexes remained deep in negative territory for a third consecutive month.
From Bloomberg:
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Rose to 524,000 Last Week
irst-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits last week rose more than forecast, signaling companies stepped up the pace of firings at the start of the year.
Initial jobless claims jumped by 54,000 to 524,000 in the week that ended Jan. 10, from a revised 470,000 the prior week, the Labor Department said today in Washington. The total number of people collecting benefits decreased from a 26-year high.
From the AP:
December wholesale prices fall 1.9 percent
nother huge plunge in energy costs sent wholesale inflation down for a fifth straight month in December, closing out a year in which prices dropped by the largest amount in seven years.
The Labor Department said Thursday that wholesale prices fell by 1.9 percent in December, close to the 2 percent decline that economists had expected.
For the year, the government says wholesale prices fell by 0.9 percent, the first annual decline since prices had fallen by 1.6 percent in 2001. That was also a year in which the country was in a recession.
Dimon said, “We feel an obligation to pay the dividend”. These comments were made at the company’s Q4 earnings conference call.
New jobless claims increase more than expected
New claims for jobless benefits rise more than expected as workers file delayed requests
* Christopher S. Rugaber, AP Economics Writer
* Thursday January 15, 2009, 8:50 am EST
WASHINGTON (AP) — New claims for jobless benefits increased more than expected last week, reflecting continued weakness in the labor market in the new year.
The Labor Department reported Thursday that first-time requests for unemployment insurance jumped to a seasonally adjusted 524,000 in the week ending Jan. 10, from an upwardly revised figure of 470,000 the previous week. Analysts had expected 500,000 new claims.
The increase is partly due to a flood of requests from newly-laid off people who delayed filing claims over the holidays, a Labor Department analyst said.
The rise comes after two weeks of declines that economists said largely reflected those holiday-related distortions in the data. Analysts have said that retailers did not hire as many temporary seasonal workers this year, due to the recession, and so there weren’t as many subsequent layoffs.
But the jump in this week’s numbers could signal the resumption of an upward trend in claims that was evident last year.
Initial claims reached their highest level in 26 years three weeks ago when the department said 589,000 people filed new claims. That was the highest level since November 1982, when the economy was emerging from a steep recession, though the labor force has grown by about half since then.
The four-week average of claims, which smooths out fluctuations, fell by 8,000 to 518,500 last week.
In one spot of good news, the number of people continuing to request benefits declined to 4.5 million, down from an upwardly revised figure of 4.6 million the previous week. The continuing claims lag the initial claims data by one week.
Still, the number of people remaining on the rolls is near a 26-year high and is up sharply from a year ago, when it stood at 2.7 million.
The high level of continuing claims is an indication that many laid off workers are having difficulty finding new jobs.
Companies across many different sectors of the economy cut jobs this week. Computer equipment maker Seagate Technology said Wednesday that it will eliminate 2,950 jobs, or 6 percent of its work force.
Other companies that have announced layoffs recently include: pharmaceutical company Pfizer Inc., mobile phone maker Motorola Inc., and industrial conglomerates Textron Inc. and Cummins Inc.
From MarketWatch:
U.S. Dec. core PPI up 0.2% vs. 0.0% expected
U.S. Dec. PPI down 1.9% vs -2.2% expected
U.S. PPI down 0.9% in past 12 months
U.S. PPI core up 4.3% in past 12 months
re: #23 The new Rail Tunnel, another Big Dig for sure, cost overruns will be staggering, we can’t even cap a garbage dump in NJ and build golf courses on it without fraud and waste.
The PA can’t even bond for their general obligations right now, they won’t be able to come up with the money to build this tunnel without the Federal Government footing the entire bill.
Another big dig, I think I am going to go out and get my tunnel borer licence from the Tunnel Borers Union.
Metuchen Gem!
http://www.realtor.com/search/listingdetail.aspx?pg=3&srcnt=86&sid=c83d42325fda4b77a300f1cb407c74c7&fhcnt=4&loc=metuchen%2cNJ&usrloc=metuchen%2cNJ&typ=5&ml=8&fhpg=1&lid=1103911815&lsn=21
oysh.
From the AP:
Fade out for Virgin Megastore in Times Square
The age of super-sized record shops in Manhattan is fading out: The Virgin Megastore in Times Square is closing and will be replaced by a popular clothing chain.
The massive store on Broadway near 46th Street is expected to close in April. The store’s 200 or so employees were told this week about its demise. That leaves only one other Virgin store on the island, in Union Square.
Sean,
Who do I need to bribe to get the lunch truck concession?
HE (18)-
Music to my ears.
sean (37)-
Come over to my house and help me dig. I’ve got another kind of tunnel going.
Barb (38)-
The listing agent looks like Napoleon Dynamite.
whats the current budget for the new tunnel, about 9 billion? multiply it by 3 to get the real final cost, say a round 30 billion.
But hey, we are handing banks 100’s of billion. AIG has now received about 150 billion, so whats another 30 billion on a tunnel to a city that just lost its primary revenue generating industry
People mistake a housing bottom with a housing recovery. Housing bottomed in 1992 in NY/NJ when you consider straight up price. When you add in inflation, housing really bottomed in 1996. Housing did not start its big rise until 1999. If you bought a house in 1986 and sold in 1999 you broke even. Last housing bottom I knew plenty a newlwed couple caught in a coop or shoe box cape who were so underwater they could not afford to cut their price anymore, they just stood pat and home prices stopped falling mainly because people refused to cut prices anymore.
Prices don’t fall for ever, for example my friends buddy sells restored 190, 450, 380 and 560sl cars. The collector car market is fickle. Prices are so low now he took his last 5 or 6 half restored SLs threw them in the back of shop and put a drop cloth on them. Reminds me of my friends POS cape he bought in Levitown in 1986 at the peak, he could not sell quick enough and by 1990 he threw up the towel and stuck it out.
DL says:
January 15, 2009 at 8:30 am
But the housing market will bottom in 2010. They never provide rationale for the conclusion. (Will consumers be out of debt by then; will banks be lending by then; will deflation be under control by then?) The date just seems far enough away to be possible by then.
43. Clot
nailed it.
Yikes,
Yesterday you asked about all the negativity and put up your list.
While i am indeed very negative at the moment it is purely circumstantial. There will be a time to be very positive, but we arent quite there yet in my personal opinion. ask me again in 2012
I would love to buy a house from a serial killer.
Barbara says:
January 15, 2009 at 9:07 am
Metuchen Gem!
http://www.realtor.com/search/listingdetail.aspx?pg=3&srcnt=86&sid=c83d42325fda4b77a300f1cb407c74c7&fhcnt=4&loc=metuchen%2cNJ&usrloc=metuchen%2cNJ&typ=5&ml=8&fhpg=1&lid=1103911815&lsn=21
oysh.
Kettle, I did not know you were jewish, did your circumstantial hurt when they did it?
kettle1 says:
January 15, 2009 at 9:21 am
Yikes,
Yesterday you asked about all the negativity and put up your list.
While i am indeed very negative at the moment it is purely circumstantial.
John,
you’re just jelz of that mirrored wall and pickled paneling.
Barb (50)-
Yeah, but he’s holding enough junk bonds to bankrupt the free world.
Clot,
matches that 80’s decor perfectly. John, we have your Love Connection.
re: #40 – Grim, The secaucus area where the new Rail Tunnel will originate is controlled mostly by Tony Montana, the cubans run those Lunch trucks to all of the outlets and warehouses and construction sites there.
Going to be interesting to see which “Union” NJ or NY control this project.
53. Sean
Why did the Sopranos have to end? What great material 2009 is going to bring.
re: #42 Clot – you dig I will run the ShotCrete.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/b/b2/Shotcrete-Robot.png/180px-Shotcrete-Robot.png
“The refinance boom is mostly impacting the people who need help the least,”
You need to think big picture. The refinancing boom lets people who are solvent and who do qualify for a mortgage keep more of their money every month. Much of this will find its way back into the economy. At he same time, less interest means a smaller tax write-off and higher income tax receipts for Uncle Sam.
A $350k mortgage refinanced from 6% to 5% puts about $220/month back into the borrower’s pocket. The borrower keeps about $145 and sends $75 back to Obama & Co. in the form of a lost tax write-off that can be used to fund bread & circuses.
Ok, enough positive thinking for today.
Barb (52)-
The agent should’ve posted some good ’80s music to that listing:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-G2AmlfLY6I&feature=related
1/3 of Philadelphia is unemployed!
Another day, another dollop of bad economic news. As Mayor Nutter prepares to outline more budget cuts, AP reports:
New claims for jobless benefits increased more than expected last week, reflecting continued weakness in the labor market in the new year.
The Labor Department says first-time requests for unemployment insurance jumped to a seasonally adjusted
524,000 in the week ending Jan. 10, from an upwardly revised figure of 470,000 the previous week. Analysts
expected 500,000 new claims.
And Bloomberg reports that producer prices, what manufacturers pay for raw materials, fell again in December, which means the first annual drop in seven years,
The global slowdown has caused sales at companies such as Alcoa Inc. to slump, leading to cutbacks in output and hiring that are reverberating through the economy. Falling commodity costs and asset values are raising concern among some Federal Reserve officials about the danger of deep and extended price decreases that would worsen the economic downturn.
“Declining demand from a deteriorating manufacturing sector and a retrenching consumer has eliminated pricing power,” Brian Bethune, chief U.S. financial economist at IHS Global Insight Inc. in Lexington, Massachusetts, said before the report. The declines are “signaling deflationary pressures.”
rent (56)-
No doubt the gubmint will immediately find a way to grab those mortgage savings and redistribute them to banks and deadbeats.
BAC in the zombie zone. Dying, even with the gubmint backstop of MER.
john,
i am a masochist, i found it quite pleasurable actually
Clot…
They are all dying. The JPM numbers are a crock of poo.
Analysts estimated 1 cent earnings so that JPM could look like they turned a profit. JPM reports a whopping 7 cents per share down from 80 cents. All they need to do is decide how much cr*p to leave off the balance sheet (deleverage) to maintain a pseudo profit.
If I had real cajones, I would short them as well.
ALL THE BANKS ARE INSOLVENT and will remain that way until MBS comes back. If we have turned Japanese, then your banks are really just nationalized and will be kept on life support through expanding our ever increasing debt. The debt will be reduced by deflating our currency which is also deflating the value of any money that you hold in the bank.
Loss of world investment in U.S. Treasuries will mean compound time. Watch for it.
[56] renting
You forget that, due to AMT, a lot of that write off is lost anyway.
Snow starting to pile up a bit here in Newark. Something else piling up in DC.
Stu is right; it’s compound time. Perhaps a compound interest group GTG is in order?
(there’s a banking pun there, but I am ignoring it).
#60 – BAC in the zombie zone
I though it was going to take until the 3rd quarter for that to happen. Things are moving very fast now.
Clot (60):
The market no likie the TARP bailout for BAC. Down 21% right now.
They will need a Citi sized bailout by Monday,,,
And Citi is hanging on with a 3 handle.
It’s gonna be a busy weekend at the Treasury and the Fed.
On a side note, this post-election rally is dead and truly worrisome. I agree with Clot that the plunge is now at hand. It is going to be a horrible year!
NJMLS – All MLS December Sales (SFH/Condo/Coop)
(Primarily Bergen, Passaic, and Hudson Counties)
1996 – 866
1997 – 1045
1998 – 1097
1999 – 1018
2000 – 1039
2001 – 1002
2002 – 1130
2003 – 1337
2004 – 1429
2005 – 1309
2006 – 1185
2007 – 813
2008 – 683
16% yoy decline, down 52% from 2004.
NJMLS – All MLS December Contracts (SFH/Condo,Coop)
(Primarily Bergen, Passaic, and Hudson Counties)
1996 – 626
1997 – 664
1998 – 827
1999 – 686
2000 – 632
2001 – 803
2002 – 816
2003 – 968
2004 – 1013
2005 – 1013
2006 – 1001
2007 – 697
2008 – 574
17% yoy decline, down 43% from 2004.
BAC is most likely why the rest of the TARP funds were requested.
–GRim #67
“ya see stan its like we we’re travelling 100 mph on the highway, and now we’re going 65. Its still fast, it just doesnt seem as fast because we were going 100 not too long ago.”
–agent on sales and inventory to Stan and Stannetta 05/08
BAC will be acquired by the US tax payers over the weekend..
I agree Tosh.
Vix climbing into the fifties.
New bottom tomorrow?
C = $3.61
Dejavu?
John –
You might want to pay attention. However, I agree with your investment thesis in general.
“Bond Rally Falters on Economy, Bank Capital Concern ”
The rally in corporate debt that saw investors buying bonds at the fastest pace since May, pushing yields down from records, faltered amid signs the worldwide economy is worsening and on concern banks are short of capital.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aujIoSyT8okY&refer=home
Can Fed and treasury handle BAC and C on the same weekend?
Bernie? Get outta there! Come about! Let it- let it carry you out of there! What the hell are you doing? Bernie! For Christ sake! You’re steaming into a bomb! Turn around for Christ sake! Bernie, can ya hear me? You’re headed right for the middle of the monster! Bernie?…
#74 – Stu – No, but what choice do they have? They absolutely have to do something. Letting either C or BAC die is just not an option.
Is the blog halted pending news?
If everyone was required to put 20% down on a mortgage, the way it used to be, we would of never had this mess. All of these fancy no money down loans killed the market. The banks better get back to there old ways.
From MarketWatch:
Philly Fed index shows manufacturing ‘depressed’
Manufacturing conditions in the Philadelphia region continued to be “depressed” in early January, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s monthly index released Thursday. The Philly Fed index improved to negative 24.3 from a downwardly revised negative 36.1 in December. The new orders index improved to negative 22.3 from negative 28.2, while the employment index fell to negative 39.0 from negative 28.6. The expectations index rose to 7.4 from negative 10.4, indicating manufacturing firms expect conditions to improve in the next six months. Readings under zero indicate more firms reported worsening conditions than reported improving conditions.
“Letting either C or BAC die is just not an option.”
At some point, the survival of our country vs. the need to continue bailout every failing business will need to be addressed.
At some point, there will just be too many holes in the dike.
RE: Metuchen Gem
There’s a train running through the back yard. Great price at $630,000 to live in Metuchen with mass transit “just steps away.”
“There’s a train running through the back yard. Great price at $630,000 to live in Metuchen with mass transit “just steps away.”
Look on the bright side, you’ll be the first to know of the frequent NJ Transit rail delays.
#80 – Stu – I agree, there is a limit. However, I just don’t think anyone has the political will to allow C and/or BAC to fail.
Especially not so soon after the debacle of Lehman. There is still a lot of criticism for not bailing them.
Tosh Stu,
who ever lets C or BAC fail will also face a high probability of becoming a global pariah. The failure of either of those 2 banks will have widespread global implications thanks to the innovative derivative products (along with other lessor reasons).
They need to both fail, but the implications are massive and would be shocking to most people.
A real question…. of it was up to either of you to decide the fate of C and BAC would you let them die? Or prop them hoping they die on someone else shift, or in a manner you can blame someone else for?
In the current social and political atmosphere you would be toast
(i would still pull the rigger, but its a hard choice)
Refinancing to a lower rate should not put cash in your pocket. If you can afford a 2500 monthly payment and you can refinance to 2100 you should keep paying 2500, putting an extra $400 toward principal will really cut the length of your mortgage. Blowing the extra $400 a month on dog grooming, kids parties and take out ruins the whole point of refinancing.
#85 – Or you could save the extra $400 a month.
January 14, 2009
From: Vikram Pandit
Dear Citi Colleagues,
I want to make sure you know that we’ve moved up our Q4 2008 earnings announcement to this coming Friday, January 16. Since we are ready to release 4th quarter earnings and talk about 2009 and the future, we saw no need to wait.
As I told you yesterday in my video message, economics and psychology are both important in the markets. The economic model of our business is sound and positions the company for success over the long term. The clarity we provide as we report earnings should address the psychology of the market.
Until then, here are the things you should know:
* While we are embarked on a long-term transformation of Citi, our core mission is unchanged. Our goal is to streamline our operations, strengthen our balance sheet, position ourselves to take advantage of historic global growth opportunities, and deliver to clients all the benefits of our strength, insight, and unique global reach.
* We are and will remain a bank. We will continue to help clients save, borrow, invest, transact, and we will provide them advice.
* Our commitment to our clients remains unchanged. We will continue to deliver what our clients expect from us. That is our firm commitment. Please reiterate that to the customers and clients you speak with today.
We continue to be focused on creating value for our shareholders and debt holders and restoring profitability sooner rather than later.
I will work my hardest to implement an indian style corporate governance model that will allow us to inflate our profits to at least the exent of a well known indian IT provider of outsourcing services.
Thank you for your dedication, focus, and hard work. I look forward to speaking with you on Friday.
If I was Timothy Geitner I would let C fail and bail BAC. And use a line uncle vinnie would use “DO you know what I mean when I say that this is the last time that I’m gonna help you”
Citi’s business model is broken. The whole banking supermarket supercenter is a bunch of bologne.
They need to restructure, break up the company and re-organize. Start by getting rid of Vikram.
This just in… Prince from Arabia says Citi is a bargain at these prices. Everyone buy now or be priced out forever.
Stu (82)-
Also, when things start to look really bad, you can step out into your backyard and just end it all, Merkle-style.
Tosh,
I agree with you, but at some point, either the chosen one, Hank or Bernie needs to level with the public. I would venture a guess that less than 1 in 50 Americans are aware of how close our economy is to depression.
According to Intrade the chance of a depression is now 54%.
Outside of requesting that we go to the malls and shop, nothing has been asked of us nor has the mere mention of the word ‘sacrifice’ been used. The average American is in support of bailouts, but are clueless where the money for them comes from.
It’s not that different from the way the wealthy can afford tax loopholes and financial advisors, but the rest of us pay the retail price on our taxes with H&R block taking a large chunk of any refund due to us.
Perhaps they are purposely ruining our education system to ensure that we remain unenlightened?
Seriously John, I just had my refi and the savings was right at $400. I will be saving all of it.
What person in their right mind would spend that money in this environment?
Frank maybe.
C and BAC must die. Burn it all down and build it back.
Burn, baby, burn!
My first one of ’09. That felt good.
I will work my hardest to implement an indian style corporate governance model that will allow us to inflate our profits to at least the exent of a well known indian IT provider of outsourcing services.
Now we’re talking. Go Vic. Let’s put a red dot on every employee who is single and inflate profits to make everyone think we’re making “Arab money”. Hire busta rhimes for some good marketing and promotions.
Stu (91)-
I’ve been screaming this from the treetops for the past 2 years:
“Perhaps they are purposely ruining our education system to ensure that we remain unenlightened?”
“I will work my hardest to implement an indian style corporate governance model that will allow us to inflate our profits to at least the exent of a well known indian IT provider of outsourcing services.”
Did he really say this?
Satyam?
Or am I being sassed.
#85 – Or you could save the extra $400 a month.
I’d buy something shiny.
Vikram, What about the evil short sellers?!??!? Aren’t you going to kill those shorts a la Dick Fuld?
Bi and Frank:
Ally Ally In Come Free
stu
a well educated population that knows how to think is very hard to control and tends to be a risk to government. why would you ever suggest such a thing as an enlightened public?!?!?!
#91 – Agreed. I’m expecting a bank holiday to be declared at some point in order to sort this whole thing out. BAC & C dying would seem like a perfect time for it, but I think we still have a little longer to go.
Maybe by summer…
Wait till they put a ban on U.S. Treasury shorters in the name of patriotism.
John (87),
Didn’t Lehman move up thier earnings a week before they were allowed to implode? Careful Vic!!!
It is me or does today seem particularly awful?
I originally found all of this to be interesting – the economy had gotten out of hand and many people and businesses needed to get real. I scoffed at people I knew who did not put 20% down, or bought Coach diaper bags and $2000 purses.
But this is looking more and more like an absolute disaster. I know this board has been doom and gloom all along, and I was with you on it, but I want to see hope. I’m tired of this, I’m tired of seeing new homeless people who look like they were in corporate jobs a week ago.
Stu that was me having fun.
Stu says:
January 15, 2009 at 11:16 am
“I will work my hardest to implement an indian style corporate governance model that will allow us to inflate our profits to at least the exent of a well known indian IT provider of outsourcing services.”
Did he really say this?
Satyam?
Or am I being sassed.
Is MLK a bank holiday?
How perfect would it be to celebrate the most famous African American with a bank holiday and then to usher in the first African American the day after.
It is reminds of the scene in Blazing Saddles…
Hedley Lamarr: Maybe I could turn this thing into my advantage… if I could find a sheriff who so offends the citizens of Rock Ridge that his very *appearance* would drive them out of town.
Hedley Lamarr: [looking into space in the direction of the camera, lost in thought] But where would I find such a man?
Hedley Lamarr: [into the camera, to the audience] … Why am I asking you?
Thanks John, I was leaning in that direction, but was not ashamed to ask.
A real question…. of it was up to either of you to decide the fate of C and BAC would you let them die?
The decision to let Lehman die was widely perceived among mainstream economists & political pundits* as a giant mistake. Many believe it cost McCain the election. The govt. is unlikely to make this quote mistake unquote again.
*Note: this is same group of economists & pundits who said, no bubble…well, a little heated, but soft landing…okay, housing looks bad, but it will be contained, no recession…well, yeah, it looks like a shallow recession, but since it’s 2 years old, we’re almost done…well, this looks bad….But, perception is everything in politics.
Hobocondo:
Just keepin’ it real. I am an eternal optimist. Even the Titanic will be raised some day.
Hobo,
the winter is long and cold. The first snows have just fallen. Spring is still a ways off. 7 – 10 years if you average out some historical examples.
—————————
on another note, on the way to work this morning they were talking about how we may be having a record flu season. it seemed somewhat appropriate since they talked about that right after the financial news.
All this talk of nationalization…
So are we turning Japanese or Chavez?
Meet Lady Subprime
The French have the comely Marianne, the British have the fetching Britannia, and we have the welcoming Lady Liberty. May I now suggest, at least for the duration of the current recession, a new feminine emblem of our times: Marvene Halterman of Avondale, Ariz. At age 61, after 13 years of uninterrupted unemployment and at least as many years of living on welfare, she got a mortgage.
She got that mortgage less than two years ago. She got it even though at one time she had 23 people living in the house (576 square feet, one bath) and some ramshackle outbuildings. She got it for $103,000, an amount that far exceeded the value of the house. The place has since been condemned.
This tale, unfortunately as American as apple pie, was recounted recently in the Wall Street Journal. Since the story ran over a long, holiday weekend, it is possible that you, not to mention the occasional member of Congress or, God forbid, the various government regulatory agencies, missed it. It is the only possible explanation for why there have been no executions, never mind arrests.
Halterman’s house was never exactly a showcase — the city has since cited her for all the junk (clothes, tires, etc.) on her lawn. Nonetheless, a local financial institution with the cover-your-wallet name of Integrity Funding LLC gave her a mortgage, valuing the house at about twice what a nearby and comparable property sold for.
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According to the Journal, Integrity Funding then sold the loan to Wells Fargo & Co., which sold it to HSBC Holdings PLC, which then packaged it with thousands of other risky mortgages and offered this indigestible porridge to investors. Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s Investors Service took a look at it all, as they are supposed to do, and pronounced it “triple-A.” “Double-A” must mean no running water.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/01/12/AR2009011202481.html?referrer=emailarticle
Can’t get this out of my head:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q1ZV4Mx7tw8
Will be gone thru the afternoon. I have a bargaining session with God scheduled.
Looking at the headline of this thread, I think back to all of the people I have known over the past 10 years who called me stupid for insisting that paying-off one’s mortgage was a good thing. “What, and leave that asset there — unproductive? Good God, man, put that asset to work. The debt will make you wealthy.”
Maybe, but not on my primary residence. I wonder how many of those folks are about to be or have already been foreclosed upon?
BTW, Cramer was all ga ga over China yesterday. Looks like FXP will go on a tear pretty soon.
#114 SG
I heard a great quote.
“If you don’t have a mortgage and you lose your job, you can go pump gas for food and (property) taxes “
Rich,
If the cram-down provisions go through congress, I suspect that even 20% mortgages will be a thing of the past as 30% down becomes the new requirement.
Grim 118 in mod.
“We are and will remain a bank. We will continue to help clients save, borrow, invest, transact, and we will provide them advice”
Why would the leader of any sound bank need to make such a statement? Dummmmm, dummmmmmm, deee, dummmmm, dum, de, dumm, dummm, dummm, dummm, dum.
Clot
91mil GBP transfer and he’ll be on 500,000 GBP a week. It’s sickening.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/football/teams/m/man_city/7830199.stm
Q: lyrics to a John Mellencamp song?
Qwerty says:
January 15, 2009 at 10:47 am
RE: Metuchen Gem
There’s a train running through the back yard. Great price at $630,000
To live in Metuchen with mass transit
“just steps away.”
Little Pink Houses and you and me…
Clot,
Here’s another tune to ponder.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_5yJZUyr_cM
#119 – That would work really well as a CSI intro…
Why would the leader of any sound bank need to make such a statement?….
yeahhhh!
george wallace shamelessly once said shoot four more and take week. It is amazing how far our country has come from that in just 40 years.
OK – based on yesterday and this note….scambled brain, but it will still work….
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20090115/hl_afp/swedenfinlandhealthcoffeealzheimersresearch_20090115154721
OK – based on yesterday and this note….scrambled brain, but it will still works….
Just got a letter from my credit union. It looks like they are having one of the best years ever in returns on investment.
Since the credit union is “investors owned” they are returning the extra profits to the shareholders. Three million dollars will be distributed among 45,000 account holders.
They expect that next year will be good too. When can I expect my 65$ check?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/01/15/AR2009011501715.html?hpid=topnews
HERE we go!
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/158707/Nocera-JPMorgan%27s-Profit-Good-for-the-Market-But-Citi-%27Going-to-Be-a-Bloodbath%27?tickers=JPM,BAC,C,XLF,^DJI,^GSPC,SPY
HERE we go!
Wow! Lead author is Volker, eh?
[120] Shore guy
I take it that was the Volga Boatman dirge?
Damn, $95 bucks for the PDF report? Too rich for my blood.
[132] shore
whoops, wrong dirge.
[129] stu,
That last step will, for all intents and purposes, nationalize the banking system. They are almost all the way there now. This will simply put it over the edge.
Question then becomes how deep policy considerations go into the lending process? Notwithstanding Barney Rubble’s fulminations, the regulators did twist arms to get lending to “LMI” households increased.
With government control essentially making banking and u/w unprofitable, what will be the next big money center? London?, Dubai? Hong Kong? Singapore?
Pray, for the C or the C will prey on you.
oops, stray comma
7 handle on the DOW?
This is for Frank:
http://www.inkcinct.com.au/Web/CARTOONS/2009/2009-002–What-recession.gif
#133 – The list of recommendations is free.
I’m reading it now, no big surprises if you’ve listened to what Volker has been saying for the past 1 1/2 to 2 years.
Speaking of stimulus; we were, no?
Lets just have the USG provide each taxpayer with an American-made plug-in electric hybrid and also install on every home photovoltaic cells. They are not cost effective on an individual level BUT as far as stimulus, it would provide work in a host of industries, greatly reduce the need for imported energy — sorry Canada — and reduce the cost of commuting, traveling for vacations, and powering homes. As individuals, we need to make cost/benefit calculations, but for stimulus purposes, these calculations do not matter. The upside is that those who are most likely using gas guzzlers (and are least able to buy an efficient hybrid) would benefit, as would the environment from fewer emissions.
Grim,
Today or long term? In the weeks ahead, this investor says aye.
From Dealbreaker:
Layoffs Watch ’09: Oppenheimer
About twenty percent of the sales team was booted from Meredith Whitney’s Den of Iniquity yesterday. Dismissed employees were apparently given the news while being worked over one last time by W and her spreader y truss bar. Vikram Pandit and the team at Citi are said to be working now on an email that blast that calls Mer and Opp out for being a cesspool of ineptitude.
It looks like the Military District of Washington is going to be hopping this week.
All this talk of nationalization…
So are we turning Japanese or Chavez?
All the talk about bunkers, ammo and tax revolt makes those what “Che Guevarists?”
Hello,
I’ve been reading your posts for a while now. Really good stuff. Wanted to get your thoughts on the Metuchen property. Why do people list at such absurd prices? Are the houses still listed at 2006 prices in the NJ MLS owned by people who just really have no need to sell? How much of the NJ inventory do the smart folks on this site think is from folks who really do need to sell (to say relocate, or because of lost job)?
hard
All the talk about bunkers, ammo and tax revolt makes those what “Che Guevarists?”
not really we want a system unhindered by government interference, the people on this blog are not suggesting that the government knows better and should step in (a communist system). read up on historical icons before you throw them around.
The people on this blog lean more towards boston tea party 2.0
“her spreader y truss bar”
Dare I ask what this is? Sounds like part of a car’s suspension system.
Damn, does this mean I will have to return my DOW 10,000 hat?
#149 – Hold on to it. It’ll be relevant again in `15.
“The people on this blog lean more towards boston tea party 2.0”
But what will be throwing into the harbor? Our bank statements?
But what will be throwing into the harbor? Our bank statements?
Politicians
#151 – But what will be throwing into the harbor? Our bank statements?
Bankers.
We’re going to need a bigger harbor.
“#151 – But what will be throwing into the harbor? Our bank statements?”
Frank!
But isn’t it illegal to harbor terrorists?
I do not lean the same direction as B.O. and do not believe that spending ourselves into insolvency is a productive course, nevertheles, I heard something yesterday that made me cringe. I am sure many of you have heard others say the same thing — it was a guy quoting Ronald Reagan saying: Government isn’t the solution, Government is the problem.
The guy I heard yesterday was like nearly everyone else I have ever heard use tht line. For those who do not recall, it was from his First Inaugral Address and the line was conditional on what came before it, a whole litany of economic ills:
Given the current economic conditions, it is worth taking a look at what he said. In context, here it is:
“These United States are confronted with an economic affliction of great proportions. We suffer from the longest and one of the worst sustained inflations in our national history. It distorts our economic decisions, penalizes thrift, and crushes the struggling young and the fixed-income elderly alike. It threatens to shatter the lives of millions of our people.
Idle industries have cast workers into unemployment, human misery, and personal indignity. Those who do work are denied a fair return for their labor by a tax system which penalizes successful achievement and keeps us from maintaining full productivity.
But great as our tax burden is, it has not kept pace with public spending. For decades we have piled deficit upon deficit, mortgaging our future and our children’s future for the temporary convenience of the present. To continue this long trend is to guarantee tremendous social, cultural, political, and economic upheavals.
You and I, as individuals, can, by borrowing, live beyond our means, but for only a limited period of time. Why, then, should we think that collectively, as a nation, we’re not bound by that same limitation? We must act today in order to preserve tomorrow. And let there be no misunderstanding: We are going to begin to act, beginning today.
The economic ills we suffer have come upon us over several decades. They will not go away in days, weeks, or months, but they will go away. They will go away because we as Americans have the capacity now, as we’ve had in the past, to do whatever needs to be done to preserve this last and greatest bastion of freedom.
In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem; government is the problem.”
http://www.reaganfoundation.org/reagan/speeches/first.asp
But what will [we] be throwing into the harbor?
120 year-old, 20lb lobsters…the revolution has already begun.
http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/264890
“But great as our tax burden is, it has not kept pace with public spending. For decades we have piled deficit upon deficit, mortgaging our future and our children’s future for the temporary convenience of the present.”
OK, maybe this is the reason he decided to increase our national debt by almost 30%.
http://zfacts.com/p/318.html
Actually, with just a few tweaks, B.O. could deliver the Reagan speech and it would be hailed as a great success.
“You and I, as individuals, can, by borrowing, live beyond our means, but for only a limited period of time. Why, then, should we think that collectively, as a nation, we’re not bound by that same limitation? We must act today in order to preserve tomorrow. And let there be no misunderstanding: We are going to begin to act, beginning today.”
And then Reagan went on to break all deficit spending records to be surpassed only by his vice president’s son.
“I am sure many of you have heard others say the same thing — it was a guy quoting Ronald Reagan saying: Government isn’t the solution, Government is the problem”
The problem is, Reagan didn’t practice what he preached. It’s like George W. Bush talking about free markets while he’s signing off on subsidies, Medicaid, tax breaks, and appointing Central Bankers. Just because George Bush talks about free markets doesn’t mean he knows a damn thing about them. Then, the Democrats criticize free markets based on Bush’s convoluted idea of them. I find that 99% of the people out there who criticize free markets haven’t read the writings of Adam Smith, Ludvig von Mises, Friederich von Hayek, Milton Friedman or Murray Rothbard, the most popular economists who’s work define free markets.
57. Clot
I loves me some New Order but that agent would have uploaded a Phil Collins 80s mix. Su-su-sudio.
From the above:
We shall reflect the compassion that is so much a part of your makeup. How can we love our country and not love our countrymen; and loving them, reach out a hand when they fall, heal them when they’re sick, and provide opportunity to make them self-sufficient so they will be equal in fact and not just in theory?
Can we solve the problems confronting us? Well, the answer is an unequivocal and emphatic “yes.” To paraphrase Winston Churchill, I did not take the oath I’ve just taken with the intention of presiding over the dissolution of the world’s strongest economy.
AND
Beyond those monuments to heroism is the Potomac River, and on the far shore the sloping hills of Arlington National Cemetery, with its row upon row of simple white markers bearing crosses of Stars of David. They add up to only a tiny fraction of the price that has been paid for our freedom. Each one of those markers is a monument to the kind of hero I spoke of earlier. Their lives ended in places called Belleau Wood, the Argonne, Omaha Beach, Salerno, and halfway around the world on Guadalcanal, Tarawa, Pork Chop Hill, the Chosin Reservoir, and in a hundred rice paddies and jungles of a place called Vietnam.
Under one such marker lies a young man, Martin Treptow, who left his job in a small town barbershop in 1917 to go to France with the famed Rainbow Division. There, on the western front, he was killed trying to carry a message between battalions under heavy artillery fire.
We’re told that on his body was found a diary. On the flyleaf under the heading “My Pledge,” he had written these words: “America must win this war. Therefore I will work, I will save, I will sacrifice, I will endure, I will fight cheerfully and do my utmost, as if the issue of the whole struggle depended on me alone.”
The crisis we are facing today does not require of us the kind of sacrifice that Martin Treptow and so many thousands of others were called upon to make. It does require, however, our best effort and our willingness to believe in ourselves and to believe in our capacity to perform great deeds, to believe that together with God’s help we can and will resolve the problems which now confront us.
And after all, why shouldn’t we believe that? We are Americans.
God bless you, and thank you.
Victorian,
His 30% wouldn’t be a rounding error in today’s environment. At least his spending brought down the USSR. Our current spending may being US down.
“With government control essentially making banking and u/w unprofitable, what will be the next big money center? London?, Dubai? Hong Kong? Singapore?”
I’ll go with Hong Kong. They know what real capitalism is. Hell, even the Swiss seem to be throwing away the banking ideals that built their entire banking system.
Victorian,
His 30% wouldn’t be a rounding error in today’s environment. At least his spending brought down the USSR. Our current spending may bring US down.
do we need a hazardous waste permit for the bankers going in the drink?
Pay Cut Thursday!! 10%! yaeh for me!
Mr. Paulson, tear down this mall!
most presidents have a 100 day honeymoon period, this time around by 9am next wed they will have figured out there is no way he can do all he promised
“You and I, as individuals, can, by borrowing, live beyond our means, but for only a limited period of time. Why, then, should we think that collectively, as a nation, we’re not bound by that same limitation? ”
Who here disagrees with this sentiment? Heck, it could be the motto of this blog.
“Mr. Paulson, tear down this mall!”
ROFL! Post of the day!
Compare Ricardo Montalban to today’s ingrate US hating Hollywood “stars”:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KilRqvAEPYA
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-rkuUPXwyCI
and the classic:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9pVTrnxCZaQ
“At least his spending brought down the USSR. Our current spending may bring US down.”
– By the same token, you could argue that Bush’s spending has kept us safe. Could you point us to a link (non partisan) which proves that Reagan’s spending led to the USSR being brought down?
I thought the takeaway lesson from the Reagan years was that deficits don’t matter. Hasn’t this voodoo economics been debunked enough?
Crude prices tumble below $34
http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.aspx?feed=AP&date=20090115&id=4160093
“The bull oil era is officially over,”
Well the good news is today is the first day of 2009 that your first 401K contribution goes in!!!!! A down market means more shares!!!!! It is party time.
and we’ve got a 7 handle on the dow.
CNBC a moment ago: “From 2001-2007, 97% of the jobs in NJ were government jobs. What’s going on in NJ?”
that’s what the trader guy (STeve) asked … the homebase basically sidestepped it
Pay Cut Thursday!! 10%! yaeh for me!
We got word today, no merit increases or bonuses in ’09.
No cuts though, at least for now.
ben ,
i would guess HK as well
Does anyone think that $30 oil is a precursor to the Great Depression II – Electric Bugaloo?
Victorian,
Have you ever heard Gorbachev speak? He makes clear that our spending on SDI, and the build-up of our forces under Reagan did in the USSR. Clearly, Reagan’s policies did not harm the US as Clinton was later able to bring the budget into balance. Had Bush not “refunded” the surpluses (how can we refund surpluses before first paying down our debt to ZERO?) we were on a path to NO DEBT notwithstanding the recession after 9-11.
George Herbert Hoover Bush spent imprudently. One cnnot achieve security with out going BK.
“I thought the takeaway lesson from the Reagan years was that deficits don’t matter. ”
Any given year’s deficit may not matter, but overall debt does. If one borrows in one year in a way that increases the deficit but that spending is calculated to bring down the deficit and thus reduce the debt in the short term, fine, one is making an investment. It is analogous to borrowing to improve a home that has a structural problem. There is a huge diffrence betweenthat and borrowing to go on vacation.
AAF says:
January 15, 2009 at 1:24 pm
Pay Cut Thursday!! 10%! yeah for me!
That sucks
Who has faced a pay cut this year?
I know people complaining that increases are not high enough. Crazy thoughts in a deflationary period. Well, if deflation outstrips 10%…..
soundtrack
Stu says:
Great Depression II – Electric Bugaloo?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=43HUtBIDTYk
Shore Guy says:
January 15, 2009 at 1:55 pm
Who has faced a pay cut this year?
Shore….effectively for me…
“Mr Paulson, tear down this mall” OMG funniest post of the day.I also liked all the ideas for what could be thrown into Boston harbor. Anecdote…just spent a day with an old friend who has quite a sweet position with ML…watched as she spent 9K on a new refrigerator and complained about the crowds at the ski resort where she skied with her family over Christmas…I felt like screaming “WHAT!! Aren’t you the least bit worried about oh, I don’t know..your JOB???” Apparently not..
AAF,
Welcome to the club! Now do what I’m doing. Call the cable company, call the insurance company, call the mortgage broker and get your 10% back!
Pay Cut –
Me as well, 5%. This was announced last Nov. I am just glad to keep my job after a 30% cut from the on site team.
#120 – shore guy –
Is that Darth Vader’s music you were humming?
Back to a more serious discussion
Change We Can Taste
GWB’s White House served terrible wine. O should do better.
http://www.slate.com/id/2208229/
For instance, when Bush hosted a dinner for French President Nicolas Sarkozy several days before Merkel’s visit, he served the 2004 Dominus, an excellent Napa cabernet (sadly wasted on both men: Sarkozy, like Bush, doesn’t drink).
I saw the menu on the news for the inauguration dinner and I saw Duckhorn Cab and an Anderson Valley Mountain Cuvee.
But this is looking more and more like an absolute disaster. I know this board has been doom and gloom all along, and I was with you on it, but I want to see hope. I’m tired of this, I’m tired of seeing new homeless people who look like they were in corporate jobs a week ago.
I’d like to see a solution, too. But I haven’t seen anything that makes sense. There’s no way out of this. It’s one long, bad, strange trip with no end in sight.
I know we’re doing a good job of saving (well, aside from the house), but i dont know about friends and family, despite our repeated pleas.
#190 It was the old pray for the dead dirge.
Correction…Right wines, wrong varietals.
Duckhorn is a Saugvinion Blanc and the Anderson is a Pinot. They always do a Korbel Champagne as well.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/reutersComService_2_MOLT/idUKTRE50E4YY20090115?pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=0
#129
“HERE we go!”
alternate title:
“Death of the $800k One-Bedroom”
Just fire the bottom 10%, better than a 10% pay cut.
LIMA (Reuters) – Peru’s top court has ruled that workers cannot be fired for being drunk on the job, a decision that was criticized by the government on Wednesday for setting a dangerous precedent.
The Constitutional Tribunal ordered that Pablo Cayo be given his job back as a janitor for the municipality of Chorrillos, which fired him for being intoxicated at work.
The firing was excessive because even though Cayo was drunk, he did not offend or hurt anybody, Fernando Calle, one of the justices, said on Wednesday.
I buy Korbel as gifts for our German neighbors. They love it.
No raises or bonuses this year. I would say that is essentially a pay cut due to inflation.
Deflation should turn that into a slight raise here shortly.
the lovely, powdery snow turned conversations on the train platform this morning to skiing.
listened to a woman recount her family trip to Aspen for about 10 minutes before getting sick of it and moving down a few yards, only to find myself standing next to a group of four men discussing a recent whiteout at Vail that they had each individually experienced.
hard times indeed.
Clot,
Like you could land a plane drunk. lol
kettle1,
boston tea party may be an apt description, but guevara was about standing up to the established power, though with a communist directive. Maybe a better figure could have been used, but he came to mind.
But this is looking more and more like an absolute disaster. I know this board has been doom and gloom all along, and I was with you on it, but I want to see hope. I’m tired of this, I’m tired of seeing new homeless people who look like they were in corporate jobs a week ago.
I’m with you on the “hope” issue but I’m still struggling with the fundamentals same as Yikes. I look around at my family and it seems to me that reality is finally sinking in. They are having to assume the roll of low-middle class and they don’t like it.
There was this euphoria among them for quite some time that they had somehow levitated passed having to work hard for hard rewards.
I look at this fundamental shift and I say, “How is the economy going to change moving forward?”. Well it is clear to me that it will move forward but not with the same direction as it did before. Frugal is back, luxury is out. Redefine what you think of as normal and you have solved 80% of your worries.
High-School educated student, that didn’t put the effort in during school, spent recklessly for years, and now is homeless? Sounds normal to me.
Stu: I’m on it, who needs cable or a subscription to the Times, its all bad news anyway.
Uh, Shore Guy, of course Gorbachev would say US military spending brought down the USSR. He doesn’t want to be blamed for the collapsed economy, which is what really did in the USSR.
The firing was excessive because even though Cayo was drunk, he did not offend or hurt anybody
Sounds reasonable to me.
I will be in Peru next month. Maybe I will stay.
Now I want to move to Peru, being drunk at work would dull the pain.
Same boat here no raise, no bonus approx 20% decrease in take home pay.
I thought O was going to serve gin & juice at the inauguration.
Dow turned positive..
As for the drunk public employee, just look at the damage bush did while on the wagon.
re: Comp no word yet, but the strike price on my options and grants is way way underwater, about 7 years worth of options worthless and about three years worth of grants underwater. I think I may just have to put a pillow over my own head when I am old and grey.
I dont think you can get gin & juice in a forty
60 people and counting have gotten the axe from my company(in NJ)today. They are also working on the NY office as well…not sure what the count is up there…
GM cuts US sales forecast
General Motors reduces its industrywide US sales predictions for 2009 to 10.5 million units
* Thursday January 15, 2009, 1:52 pm EST
NEW YORK (AP) — General Motors Corp. is cutting its 2009 industrywide U.S. sales forecast to 10.5 million vehicles.
The Detroit automaker previously said it expected industrywide sales of about 12 million for the year, with 10.5 million seen as a worst-case scenario for the industry. It revised its prediction in an analyst conference Thursday where Chief Executive Rick Wagoner is speaking.
U.S sales fell to 13.2 million in 2008, down 18 percent from 16.1 million in 2007.
Many analysts have been predicting sales of 10.5 million to 11.5 million in 2009.
General Motors is also projecting 2009 global sales of 57.5 million units.
GM says the lower sales outlook will force it to make hard decisions that will result in a stronger viability plan and better position the company for long-term growth.
hard place,
in those terms, yes i agree with you
—————————–
stu,
re great depression2: i think my opinion on th matter is clear. the lower oil goes, the deeper the greater depression will be in my opinion.
The declining price of oil is just a symptom of a declining worldwide economy, no?
Anyone else experience this, we have had a good dozen calls from various RNC groups looking for money just since the start of the new year.
TechTicker:
Today’s Outrage: Bank of America’s Secret Backroom Bailout
Posted Jan 15, 2009 01:59pm EST by Henry Blodget in Investing, Recession, Banking, Election
Related: bac, ^dji, ^gspc
In mid-December, the WSJ tells us, Bank of America (BAC) went to Hank Paulson and threatened that if he didn’t give the firm another TARP bailout, they’d abandon the Merrill Lynch deal and cripple the financial system. Paulson then apparently spent more money he didn’t have, promising that he would rescue BAC yet again. (This a month or so after an annoyed Ken Lewis said he didn’t want or need the original TARP infusion).
There is only one word to describe this: Outrageous. Aaron and I discuss what happened in the accompanying piece with Joe Nocera, Business Columnist for the New York Times. Talking about the nation’s banking system, Nocera sums it up nicely: They’re “not on our side.”
BAC CEO Ken Lewis decided to buy Merrill Lynch. No one forced him to do it. If it was such a bad decision that it threatened to kill the firm, he should resign in disgrace (or, if he refuses to do so, he should be sacked). It’s not as though he didn’t have plenty of warning.
If Hank Paulson promised Bank of America more money, meanwhile, both he and BAC should have disclosed this immediately. This is highly material information. It’s also NOT a private deal. It’s a government deal. The public deserves to know about this instantly.
Taxpayers should be furious at how they and their money are being treated. Bank of America did not buy Merrill Lynch for the good of the country: It bought it because Ken Lewis thought, wrongly, that he was getting a deal. Ken Lewis should be held accountable for this. Hank Paulson, meanwhile, should immediately disclose exactly what this secret deal was, when he made it, and why.
From Bloomberg:
Pfizer May Fire 2,400, One-Third of U.S. Sales Force
Pfizer Inc., the world’s biggest drugmaker, may fire almost a third of its U.S. sales force, or as many as 2,400 workers, in a plan under consideration by senior management, people familiar with the discussions said.
Pfizer, based in New York, is trimming its U.S. sales operation to save money as top-selling products lose patent protection. Chief Executive Officer Jeffrey Kindler may detail cost-cutting plans at an investor presentation Jan. 28, said Barbara Ryan, a Deutsche Bank analyst in Greenwich, Connecticut, in an interview last month.
The firings, which will include middle managers, add to more than 14,000 jobs already chopped by Kindler in two years, as he’s closed research labs and broken the company into smaller units. Pfizer needs to reduce spending because it doesn’t have enough new products to replace the more than $12 billion in revenue it will begin losing in three years when its top-selling Lipitor cholesterol pill loses patent protection.
Even beer sales are suffering
http://www.nj.com/business/index.ssf/2009/01/even_beer_sales_are_suffering.html
Cutting a third of the workforce. Yikes!
How big a presence do they have in NJ? Any WARN information on any NJ cuts?
Speaking of YIKES, $100-200 B for BoA?
Dow turned positive..
Zach,
Say hello to the PPT team. They’re back from Xmass holidays.
I dont think you can get gin & juice in a forty
That’s a great idea for a product. We can hire 0bama as a celebrity endorser and watch the sales go to the moon.
Right now, go take a look at the CNBC front page. Even there, where they have been so upbeat, the news is darker and darker. John Mc-Ca-in must be saying “Thank You God. Thank You God.” that he lost the election.
Even beer sales are suffering
by The Associated Press
Thursday January 15, 2009, 2:05 PM
SABMiller PLC, the London-based brewer of Grolsch, Miller Genuine Draft and Peroni Nastro Azzurro lagers, said today its beer shipments fell unexpectedly in the third quarter as consumers pulled back on their demand.
America, its time to sober up, and turn off the TV (DTV Conversion).
re great depression2: i think my opinion on th matter is clear. the lower oil goes, the deeper the greater depression will be in my opinion.
Initial drop in oil price for last 6 months was probably due to deleveraging/unwinding of positions. Where it goes in the future will be due more to supply/demand fundamentals and probably indicative of economic fundamentals as well.
“Zach,
Say hello to the PPT team. They’re back from Xmass holidays.”
Nothing goes straight down, but it will eventually go down.
“Bank lending has not picked up for two principal reasons,” says William Isaac, a former chairman of the FDIC. “Banks are fearful of the future and have tightened credit standards. That is what banks always do when entering a downturn.”
http://www.cnbc.com/id/28674602
So lets make them EVEM MORE gunshy by enacting cram-down rules. Nothing like giving them reasons NOT to lend to those who are not a big risk.
No PPT today, I can tell you that for a fact.
HEHEHE says:
January 15, 2009 at 3:09 pm
“Zach,
Say hello to the PPT team. They’re back from Xmass holidays.”
Nothing goes straight down, but it will eventually go down.
I am a lucky SOB!!! A long ring finger equals an extra 80K a year!!! Screw Harvard I got a long finger and I am using it.
No PPT today, I can tell you that for a fact.
How’s that John.Are you buying BAC and C and the rest of the junk.
From CR; California facing insolvency within weeks.
This is another one I though we’d see within the year, just not so soon.
Still, the most far-reaching impacts may come next month. State Controller John Chiang has warned that California will run out of cash by late February unless state leaders act swiftly on the budget. Otherwise, starting Feb. 1, the state may issue IOUs as tax refunds to millions of Californians. It may also issue IOUs as payment to local governments, state vendors, judges and lawmakers and their staffers.”
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123203902648986141.html
tosh,
once again you’re the man.
[234] John
too much information there. Between your fingers and that thing with onions, don’t be offended if no one shakes your hand at a GTG.
Lets give $30,000 vouchers to 30,000,000 people who actually pay taxes, not file and get refunds, who agre to use the voucher for the purchase of U.S. built and U.S. component plug-in hybrids — paying ther difference from their own pockets if the vehicles cost more, which they would, I suspect. Then, lets spend $600 billion to put $6,000 worth of photovoltaic cells on 100,000,000 private houses. We will put legions of manufacturing plants online, truck and train traffic will go up, installers and mechanics go to work, we lower our need to import energy. AND it costs less than throwing good money after bad on various half-baked plans.
hard place,
i am using oil simply as a tell, and not the source when i say the lower oil goes the deeper the depression.
Doing my part to help California. Off to the post office in a moment to pay the 4th-quarter estimated taxes. It is weird writing income tax checks to the Franchise Tax Board. I have a franchise of California?
re: #240 Shore Guy – We are following the japan playbook to a tee, there will be expiring gift/debit cards given out by the goverment, you won’t be able to save the money or pay down debt with it.
Think Katrina.
Here is a pic, substitue the “Red Cross” with “Obama Bucks”.
http://www.snopes.com/katrina/graphics/debitcard.jpg
“http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/01/15/AR2009011502222.html?hpid=topnews”
Methane on Mars. Refried beans package also found.
sean,
sure you can save it. Buy ammo, food or other durable goods that are/will be in demand and then hold said goods. barter said goods when need arises.
“you won’t be able to save the money or pay down debt with it.”
Money is fungible. What is the difference between the USG sending me a cheque tht I cash and save and the USG sending me a card like that, which I use for making purchases I would have made anyway, and just saving the the money I would have spent had the USG NOT sent me the card in the first place?
Well, off to pay Uncle Arnold — Long liv the California Republic.
live, even
I tell you what, if I received a voucher instead of a real refund, I would set my withholding to zero
Did PPT team leave at 3:30?
The great college savings fiasco
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/learn-how-to-invest/the-great-college-savings-fiasco.aspx
But as financial planners say, nobody gives you a loan for retirement.
In fact, a retirement account may be your best college saving option.
Timmy is kinda distracted with the .ummm.. unforseen technical difficulties with his confirmation.
RE – For BofA, nothing fair about Merrill deal-
Funny part is Jaimie Dimon at Chase actually knows brokerage very very well from his days at Shearson and Smith Barney, heck his Granddad was a stock broker. He didn’t want nothing to do with Lehman or Merril and only took Bear with backstops at a firesale price if they threw in their headquarters building for free. He also wanted nothing to do with Countrywide either as old Jaimie know banking too from Citi and Bank One and only took wamu for next to nothing after they were siezed so he did not have to take their liabilities. When you don’t know who the fool is your are the fool and BOA just got hosed.
Airplane in Hudson River….NY Waterway ferries picking up survivors….
CNBC is reporting US guaranteeing $100 – $200 billion for BAC.
US AIRWAYS JUST CRASHED IN HUDSON RIVER
off the wire:
plane crash in the Hudson…
possible area near the Intrepid.
that is all
SAS
Wasn’t Ken Lewis protesting that he was forced to take the TARP money?
Poor Ken. The government is again forcing him to take money. Maybe he should get a bonus this year.
sas says:
January 15, 2009 at 3:51 pm
off the wire:
plane crash in the Hudson…
possible area near the Intrepid.
that is all
SAS
Could have watched it out my old window at Hudson Tea…..
PLANE JUST CRASHED INTO THE HUDSON RIVER
They’re using Circle Line boats for the rescue. I can’t see how intact the fuselage is, hopefully all are ok.
DO NOT PANIC!
This beats using a Sharpie to write ….
“Other Leg”
——> X <–Cut here —
“Fully insured”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/7825780.stm
/tongue-in-cheek
http://ktar.com/?nid=45&sid=1025950
plane in hudson
video of plane.
http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=1n
A320, fuselage looks intact, actually floating very well. Looks like they were on it almost immediately. Prayers go out to those on board, but it appears that they may not need them. Kudos on the response.
I saw it from my office and thought it was going to crash into a building before it hit the water, scary indeed.
They just announced the crash is a hoax, it is just a promo for the new season of Lost.
Reports that the plane may have hit a flock of birds on takeoff, damaging the engines. Reporters saying the crash landing in the river may have been intentional.
flock of seagulls
From the Star Ledger:
Essex officials plan to cut 219 jobs from county government
Essex County Executive Joseph DiVincenzo Jr., capping weeks of sometimes dire economic warnings, today introduced a $675 million budget that calls for the elimination of 219 positions, including 68 layoffs, in a belt-tightening that will reach into nearly every corner of county government.
“You never want to lay off people. You never want to raise taxes,” DiVincenzo said at his packed offices at the Hall of Records in Newark. “Anytime you lay off one person, it’s too many.”
The budget package is a trimmed-down version of a working document first talked about weeks ago, when DiVincenzo warned of a pending county tax increase atop the loss of a then projected 150 positions — 43 through layoffs — amid a $33 million falloff in revenue borne of a national recession.
News reports said they got everybody off the plane.
Allegedly everyone is off the plane.
Reports that the plane may have hit a flock of birds on takeoff, damaging the engines. Reporters saying the crash landing in the river may have been intentional.
It was canadian geese. Those things are 15 pounds each.
Allegedly everyone is off the plane.
My cousin is on the scene and he says 151 people are all saved and into ferries on their way to hospital.
Blame Canada!
So some positive news after all.
The pilot is a hero!
This pilot is amazing. Most definitely a hero.
From MarketWatch:
Bank of America to get billions more in U.S. funds
Bank of America shares gyrated wildly Thursday as investors reacted to reports that the firm will need more government funds to stay afloat.
CNBC reporting 100 to 200 billion dollars.
No serious injuries? A damn good pilot.
Re BofA
Funny, if they’s paid what Merril was actually worth prior to the merger, $0, instead of $37 a share, they wouldn’t need anymore f’n money. That entire deal was a taxpayer funded ripoff from the get go.
SRS must be dizzy today. I wonder how the day traders must be handling this baby. I would imagine a few must have gone BK trying to handle it.
check the pic on marketwatch.com
NY waterway was first on scene and lots of people made it out onto the wings.
Ah, there’ll be plenty more days like this one for SRS. That late day runup had to be all short covering. That whole sector is d-e-a-d.
People one day will forget and run after RE. We just need 15 more years for the silly season to begin again. Happy waiting.
Oh I take that back, BoA/ML was a stock merger, the price dropped from equivalent of $29 when announced to $12, which is still $12 too high.
i assume clot/vic/stu sold their srs this morning so i am reiterating my 2009 hits:
1) dow hits 11000
2) srs hits 25.25
3) gold hits 600/ounce
4) oil hits 60 (first target of 50 has been hit before retreat)
5) 1 USD = 1 EUR
6) 10 year treasury hits 3%
7) Shiller/case index shows first up month by june
8) recession ends by Q1 (but you won’t know by the end of the year)
We have tested the lows of November. Dow is going up now to 10000, up, up and away. Buy now or be priced out forever.
jus kiddin
Up close picture
http://www.flickr.com/photos/charlottetohoboken/3199344799/
SRS will see 200 before it sees 25 again. I am retiring on this puppy.
1) dow hits 11000 – You added an extra “0”
2) srs hits 25.25 – Possible, due to slippage and volatility. But it will go to 100 – 125 before that.
3) gold hits 600/ounce – Hopefully! Opportunity of a lifetime.
4) oil hits 60 (first target of 50 has been hit before retreat) – No chance!
5) 1 USD = 1 EUR – Entirely Possible
6) 10 year treasury hits 3% – Nope. Deflation is the name of the game this year.
7) Shiller/case index shows first up month by june – June of 2015?
BofA reports a number of employees on flight
SRS,
Nice Bollinger band set up here Bi-boy
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=SRS#chart4:symbol=srs;range=1y;indicator=bollinger+sma(50,200)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
All disclaimers.
“BofA reports a number of employees on flight”
BoA execs must be miffed no one was hurt. Now there stuck with severance rather than the insurance co. footing the bill.
grim says:
January 15, 2009 at 3:59 pm
A320, fuselage looks intact, actually floating very well. Looks like they were on it almost immediately. Prayers go out to those on board, but it appears that they may not need them. Kudos on the response.
grim: asssuming everyone on the plane is OK…it is probably an effective, yet unconventional way to gain about $500K-$2M in the space of 3 minutes……
chicagofinance says:
January 15, 2009 at 4:56 pm
grim says:
January 15, 2009 at 3:59 pm
A320, fuselage looks intact, actually floating very well. Looks like they were on it almost immediately. Prayers go out to those on board, but it appears that they may not need them. Kudos on the response.
grim: asssuming everyone on the plane is OK…it is probably an effective, yet unconventional way to gain about $500K-$2M in the space of 3 minutes……
FROM LITIGATION
Guaranteed Drop in Housing Prices Leads 2009 Economic Predictions
http://www.chicagogsb.edu/news/2008-12-03-BFL.aspx
Litigation? Who are they going to sue the Geese? Please each and eveyone of those passengers should write the pilot a check for 20k.
NYT ALERT: senate voted 52-42 to release the 2nd half of the bailout
we’re officially f*cked
i bet you that pilot flew in Vietnam.
SAS
So sas, do you think there was anything peculiar about this or was it actually birds seeing as how they didn’t emergency land at the airport which is what typically happens. I must say though it was definitely a landing.
http://bankimplode.com/blog/?p=1101&preview=true
Riots start in Latvia. hat tip to implode lender
I wonder if that pilot owned an investment company on the side. Maybe he was trying to fake his own death? No, nobody would try something that stupid. On the other hand maybe they need to look for a motorcycle in a nearby storage shed.
“peculiar about this”
I’m not a pilot, but i flew in and jumped out of all sorts of rigs.
birds? i guess anything is possible.
but, i do know.. with airlines.. you can only cut back so much that it will sooner or later effect your safety.
outscoring of mechanics is not good.
and, planes are equipped with more & more (internet, foofy things) etc..etc.. the more its equiped, the higher the probability something can go wrong.
birds? could be a cover as to not kill an airlines industry.
however, everyone is safe.
Let this be a learning lesson to you blokes too!
when those people were going straight into that water… the last thought on their minds was money, real estate, and layoffs.
except for that pilot, he didn’t have time to think about anything other than the landing.
SAS
“et this be a learning lesson to you blokes too!
when those people were going straight into that water… the last thought on their minds was money, real estate, and layoffs.”
their thought were about family & loved ones.
along with a few oh shits : )
SAS
268.
John, I actually LOLed. For reals.
It looked pretty cold in Latvia. Those unemployed males didn’t look drunk. They appeared strangely sober when throwing rocks through the window of that shop.
not a bad salary for CO.
maybe its time for some of you to get realistic and relocate.
“Schwab to add 500 tech jobs in Colorado
average salary for the primarily information technology jobs: $75,000”
http://tinyurl.com/72vpcr
Wow….missed a lot today….working for living…and all.
Man oh man…I would LOVE to be in Colorado….great ‘natural amenities’…and way better snow skiing than VT.
Coincidence?
Second half of TARP released, BAC may be reporting additional aid tomorrow morning, along with early earnings.
Bank of America Moves Up Release of Quarterly Results (Update1)
Bank of America Corp., the largest U.S. lender, moved up its fourth-quarter report to tomorrow at 7 a.m. New York time amid speculation the company will get more aid from the U.S. Treasury.
The switch from Jan. 20 may provide investors with details on what kind of help the U.S. may give to the Charlotte, North Carolina-based bank and New York-based Merrill Lynch & Co., the brokerage it acquired earlier this month. The Treasury already injected $25 billion into the combined company to bolster it against the global credit crunch.
Bank of America told regulators in December it might abandon the takeover because of Merrill’s worse-than-expected results, and the bank is in talks to get more U.S. aid, said three people familiar with the matter. The government insisted the Merrill deal proceed because its collapse would renew turmoil in the financial system, said the people, who declined to be identified because talks are private.
“The motivation is to try and basically get information to the market sooner rather than later because of all the anxiety that’s out there,” said Bert Ely, chief executive officer of Ely & Co., a bank consulting firm in Alexandria, Virginia. It’s a “very tense situation now,” he said.
Nick,
to what degree do you think any such protests would be reported on in the US? I wouldnt expect to see much press coverage of us riots or social unrest except in the international press
sas- pilot was an F4 pilot in Nam.
More NJ job cuts? Maidenform corporate HQ is in NJ.
From CNBC:
Maidenform Brands lowers estimate, to cut 24 jobs
ISELIN, N.J. – Intimate apparel maker Maidenform Brands Inc. said Thursday that it plans to cut 24 jobs — representing 9 percent of its corporate staff — and lowered its 2008 earnings estimate, as weak consumer spending continues to batter retailers.
And more New Jersey jobs lost…
From DowJones:
Schering-Plough Lays Off About 50 Research Employees
Schering-Plough Corp. (SGP) has eliminated about 50 positions in its drug research division, continuing a string of cost cuts in the industry that are aimed at improving returns on the billions of dollars invested in research.
The Kenilworth, N.J., drug maker has about 6,700 employees in its research- and-development arm, so the reductions represent less than 1% of the research work force. Affected employees were notified earlier this week, spokesman Steve Galpin told Dow Jones Newswires Thursday.
…
Galpin said the layoffs included management, administrative and scientific positions, and were spread primarily across five locations in New Jersey and Pennsylvania.
Fed purchased another $23 billion in MBS:
http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/mbs/index.html
Transactions from January 8 through January 14: $23,405 million
Sure isn’t driving rates down as quickly as anyone expected, especially when you consider they purchased $10.2 billion between January 5 – 7.
Totals, roughly, $33.6 billion dollars of MBS purchased over 9 days. From what I’ve seen in the MBS market, pricing has been basically flat, and I haven’t heard anything positive from lenders.
[314]
Disagree. I think that they will get outsized coverage, but the spinmeisters like Chris Matthews will downplay it and blame it on (1) Bush policies, (2) greedy conservatives and other business people, and (3) overreaction by police.
The latter will be a familiar refrain. Consequently, most riot areas will be left to burn (typically those prone to riots do so in their own ‘hoods. I am not sweating riots in downtown Summit).
Intel down 90% in Q4? Ouch!
“toshiro_mifune says:
January 15, 2009 at 3:22 pm
From CR; California facing insolvency within weeks.”
Tosh,
I wonder if I can get a refund on the money I sent them today?
#321 SG
Did you actually send them a check? I though Arnold was now working in IOU’s
Every three months they get one from me. California and about 18-19 other states. Not to mention Uncle Sam.
Qwerty says:
There’s a train running through the back yard. Great price at $630,000 to live in Metuchen with mass transit “just steps away.”
Let’s not ask how I know, but…
That’s a freight track, comes off the main set of tracks at the Met. station. The commuter lines go straight from Metuchen to Metropark.
Metuchen is a LOT busier than when I knew it better, but that was a quiet area. Well kept.
Thar’s money in them thar hills.
Kettle,
Just curious if you know a
(Dr.) R. Prince?
re: Pfizer …
the middle managers get the ax on the 28th
the sales reps will hear on the 30th.
someone in the company told me that the 1/3 is a bit conservative, and of those cuts, it may be 50% middle managers and 50% sales reps.
if anyone goes to cafe phrama, the pfizer thread is quite funny …
middle mgrs and sales reps are one thing. as long as they don’t toss the seed corn.
SPam,
honestly the name sounds very familiar but cannot place it at the moment.
I am now in the throes of complete mayhem at work.
I have *ZERO* clue what the market is doing, nor do I care.
I posit a theory that many, like myself, are working hard and just putting one foot in front of the other…
I wonder how many of us would act differently if we did not read any blogs/online news?
I, for one, call myself a middleoftheroadist.
I remain optimistic as pretty much the complete human population is not, AFAIK, going to just pack up and disappear tomorrow… and seeing as it’s pretty reliable to think they’ll be here, I might as well keep working to make a buck.
I remain pessimistic in that this is NOT the time to go deeper into debt, EXCEPT, however, thanks to a SCHMUCKY landlord, I have been forced to buy a building and perform such acts as hire lawyers and surveyors and engineers and architects and related contractors and (wait? that’s it?) to get misc variances, perform renovations and the like so as to keep my business open.
I expect to end 2009 completely riddled in debt, sunk up to the frame rails so-to-speak, playing a massive juggling act to pay Peter AND Paul.
I just hope, for my sake and those of my cats, that 2009 goes as well as 2008 did, and I can put this debt behind me and move on.
Literally.
Because in the end, there’s just…
the end.
Kettle…
ExxonMobil…
spam,
sorry, drawing a blank. the name seems familiar though. I can be bad with names sometimes……….
mutual acquaintance of some sort?
“sas- pilot was an F4 pilot in Nam”
i knew by seeing that landing, it had to be somebody from the past.
“Chesley B. “Sully” Sullenberger”
http://safetyreliability.com/about_us
OH!
And THANK YOU BILL GATES for the BSOD on my server 2 days ago that wiped out the driver for my display adapter and thanks to the all the large PC manufacturers out there who leave drivers on your site for all of about 3.69 seconds and then banish them forever to the Vista toilet (but I’m running a server-WTF?) I am now running a server in normal mode but looking at a screen displayed like safe mode so all my server duties have me recalling fondly my 3.1 days (with cold pricklies on my skin) when I had time to surf compuserve and prodigy threads.
But thanks to this economy I got a hot steamy coupon from Dell Outlet for 20% off and found me a pretty fast server with 08 installed + 5 CALs for less than $400!
I await my new server which should be delivered to ANY OTHER TENANT in my industrial park any day now and after calling FedEx non-stop for 3 days, should have it re-delivered to me, quite soon after, complete with some of the items originally included, but sans all cords and any documentation, as the other tenant will be too lazy to toss them back in.
Speaking of boston tea parties….
The tarp program can easily be seen as taxation without representation. Significant amounts of public funds are being handed to a secret list of banks by the treasury secretary.
Elected representatives have been denied the ability to oversee these activities. The public has been denied the ability to see who is recieveing public money and how it is being used.
While not a perfect correlation, i think its a pretty good fit.
what do you throw in the water in a boston tea party 2.0? your credit cards and bank statements. even a minor withdrawal event would easily collapse banks in the US and have potentially global consequences unless the government immediately enforced a national bank holiday. And that will only be fuel on the fire. Stop using debt and the banks and financial giants that feed off of the debt slavery of the middle and lower class will collapse rather quickly.
spam spam
Im with you. Were about to close on a house next week. 4.875 mortgage rate was part of the reason; it’s also in our price range and the best house we’ve seen on the market in the last 6 months of looking.
long story short – they found a short sale and if they didn’t snap it up, they think it would have been gone. so they were going to sell. if we didnt show up, they wouldn’t have jumped at the short.
anyway, of course im terrified. we cleared great money in 2008 (we may never top it again) and are frugal as heck, but i still dont know if we’ll be fine.
some of the stuff i read on here really does get me worried.
Spam
do we cross paths somehow? you have piqued my curiosity
these boards are lame tonight..
i think it SAS story time
any takers?
SAS
Shoot
Kettle:
Just sounds eerily similar to you, was curious as to how close a circle you run in.
He’s a research scientist at EM for (I believe) emerging markets…
I know him well, as well as his wife, (animal research scientist at Novartis)…
Met a crazy friend of theirs one time at dinner: was creating soylent green…
I mean spirulina…
sure!
Hype –
Sniff. We’re happily ensconced in gay paree, but I will miss the real estate/economic debacle chats.
one time, i knew a fellow from the La Saline slums. i thought he was a real cool cat and actually believed in some of the things he did. Cause… I can’t stand WalMart or Disney, and i think people should always get a pay raise.
He had a motto “Poverty with dignity”, or something to that effect.
in anycase, this person ran for an election in the year 1990, certain elements didn’t want him to win. So, they sent in a “team” to make sure that he didn’t win.
well, i got word of this through the grapvine… I was able to help set up a strategic counter “team”, and kept them at bay. It wasn’t easy.
in any case this person, got roughed up a bit after that from thugs from world bank & IMF, had to flee his home 3x.
anyone know this fellow?
SAS
I can tell stories but I don’t have the same (ahem-hack! HACK!) “timeline of recall” as sas does…
Spam,
I could easily have crossed paths with either of them. those are both some of the circles i travel in. oh well, maybe in another life then…..
sas,
Not personally, of course, but you provide enough detail.
i will give you a hint:
one of the time he had to flee it was cause of a military coup d’force.
and let me tell you, you don’t your slide to get all fcked up during one of those things.
chew on that for awhile.
SAS
sas:
It was Fidel Castro.
The word “election” gave it away.
I ate raw squid once.
Does that count as being “on the edge?”
“The word “election” gave it away”
you bloke are a smart fellow, but not as smart as you think in this case.
SAS
Also, I have ingested spirulina.
I could’ve OD’d if I knew what the dosages for doing so were….
Maybe I did.
Maybe, Od’ing on Spirulina gets you nowhere but less deficient in spirulina uptake.
oopps:
that should read
“and let me tell you, you don’t want your slide to get all fcked up during one of those things”
yes, not a good idea:)
SAS
SAS
Aristide?
“Aristide?”
bingo.
sas,
I was joking. Don’t look at me as if I’m serious.
I’m geo-political knowledge poor.
La Saline slums that would be Aristide.
But I can milk a goat, trim her hooves, shave her, giver her intramuscular medications and overfeed goodies to her until she blows up so fat she’s wider than she is tall.
ha!
SAS,
i am know historian, buti always wondered how much of a “peoples person” he was VS political image. The US wanting him out made me lean towards him being legit….
so whats your take on the guy?
and the slogan
“From Misery to Poverty With Dignity”
Emeril Lagasse?
Bam!
SaS my home country Ireland is supposed in talks with the IMF now, if they do take their conditions which would be a forced haircut on wages I have a feeling my cousin who works for the bomb disposal unit in the Army will be awfully busy.
SAS,
as you probably know, aristide wrote a book that put the IMF and world bank in less then favorable light.
i can see why they dont like him
SAS SPam
you bloke are a smart fellow, but not as smart as you think in this case.
shouldnt be “sheila”? i thought spam was a woman. that or a man living an alternative lifestyle since you have spoken about your husband
“so whats your take on the guy?”
he was a real cool cat, but no priest.. that is for damn sure.
i knew him during the uprise and first election and helped with elections.
It was pretty easy actually, you sometimes just have to show “who wants it more”.
after that, he really exploded in popularity and i stayed away. Not sure of a take on the other elections, becasuse after the coup, i washed my hands from it. got too crazy.
SAS
At least we know why earnings were pushed up. So if the next round of TARP is released, how much will be gone by Monday?
anytime some wants to come over and see my photo albums your more than welcome.
SAS
whoa.
spam=female
in any case, to change the topic:
speaking of pharma, i have been working with company off and on for a year to expand into foreign markets (legit markets),
what is with PhD types thinking they are buisness men? cause i think they stink at it, and they just talk too much.
anyone else have this exp?
SAS
“anytime some wants to come over and see my photo albums your more than welcome”
not including you cops, FBI, DHS, and a few others i won’t mention.
ha, you don’t think i know who you are
:P
SAS
SAS
do i need to wear body armour and an xray machine to get in and see the photo album?
No…just an anal cavity search!
Kettle1 – I would be more concerned with getting out, along the lines of I could tell you but then you know what.
sas: depends on what you mean by “business”…
sometimes it takes tech talk to make a sale….if the buyer is a prop head.
My motto:
“Don’t BS me on a technical level.”
You’ll be out on your arse.
I have a feeling my cousin who works for the bomb disposal unit in the Army will be awfully busy.
Second time I heard something to this effect today.
#366 SAS
I have a friend who sells services to Pharma. He has a problem recruiting sales people as the PhD’s know the product, but can’t sell for $h1t, and the sales guys are out of their depth and don’t get any respect from the PhD department heads they are trying to sell to.
PGC:
Teach the PhDs to sell.
It’s not hard and a few sessions of role playing could really change things.
As far as the sales reps out of their depth… sorry. that’s where it ends for them. unless they go back to school or really REALLY study their subject SERIOUSLY.
I did it!
I found Jamil’s homepage.
http://www.timecube.com/
About a third of the way down you are treated to a picture…sweet!
“Cubic Harmonics”
Only Cubic Harmonics can save
humanity. Cubic Harmonics
will pacify all religions.
96-hour Cubic Day
debunks 1-day unnatural god.
96-hour Cubic Day
debunks 1-day as witchcraft.
96-hour day willdisprove disunity
god. Academians are teaching –
pseudoscience.
Worshipping a Word God
will destroy the USA.
********************************************************
WARNING …
Ignore Cubic Math at your
own peril, and of humanity.
You have a god like brain –
parallel opposite & analytical,
wasted if you believe in ONE.”
andonandonandonandon….
kettle1’s outrageous statement of the day:
The last economic stable point was approx 1980. If we see a significant progression in the collapse of global finance it is possible that that would be the stable point we would settle at….
Look at the st louis fed data. All of the charts point to a stable system that switches into unstable growth trends around 1980.
(note, i am still learning addition, hence iam probably not someone to take financial advice from)
Spam,
i am now significantly dumber for having seen that webpage!!!!
kettle:
sorry, man. Blame PZ Myers…
He (288)-
SRS has taught me infinite patience.
And, that patience is always rewarded.
A bunch of insolvent REITs and tapped-out lumber companies rally because the gubmint is gonna bail out a giant, insolvent bank? Oh yeah, that’s a buy signal for sure.
157, stu:
ow.
yikes (302)-
We were f-ed months ago.
Now, they’re working over our kids.
ok blokes, turn down my invite.
fair enough
this parma group wants to set up shops in Europe & Japan.
doing global expansion, want me to work on local connections to get them the best “deals” as to land, buildings, local pull, and political mumbo jumbo.
i don’t speak japaneese, but can use the help. so if anyone speaks it, and has a clean haircut, your hired.
ps. no, one armed in shower buzzcuts neither.
SAS
sas,
I believe people are genuinely scared to set foot on your property.
This would apparently put Cities and States under TARP. Interesting that it is a Congressman from CA who is its sponsor, since CA is the state most likely to need a Fed bailout.
http://tinyurl.com/9ykrjs
SAS
“Freight rates for containers shipped from Asia to Europe have fallen to zero for the first time since records began, underscoring the dramatic collapse in trade since the world economy buckled in October”
http://tinyurl.com/79pnfp
“would venture a guess that less than 1 in 50 Americans are aware of how close our economy is to depression.”
My god, man! Please! stop with the optimism!!
More like less than 1 in 5000
sl
SaS, now you are talking, Japan Pharma.
Start here, in Feb next month.
http://www.eyeforpharma.com/marketingjapan09/who.shtml
SAS
would love to see your photo album, i am an adventurous fellow….
SaS have done business in China, not much different than Japan, you may need a bit more than some blokes from NY Metro.
Kettle1 – I’ll will go too,heck i cancelled my skit trip do to the cold and have nothing better to do, email me at my other address. I will bring the good scotch and a good getaway driver.
ski trip that is damm cheap wine!
“30% down becomes the new requirement.”
Reminds me of a quote: ends in, “…shall end up homeless on the land their forefathers fought for.”
“Dummmmm, dummmmmmm, deee, dummmmm, dum, de, dumm, dummm, dummm, dummm, dum.
OMFG!! I actually get this!!
sl
#388 Sean
I didn’t realize that business Intelligence had made it big in Pharma. BI is the new Six Sigma of the computer consulting gravy train.
SaS – I am up for a meet and greet promise to bring someone that speaks Japanese.
email me at seanm123@yahoo.com for the drop point.
Kettle1 you do the same bloke!
here i am SAS
1elttek @ Gmail dot com
Kettle1 – sent you a shout out to your “G” @ gmail account.
grim says:
January 15, 2009 at 6:57 pm
More NJ job cuts? Maidenform corporate HQ is in NJ. From CNBC:
Maidenform Brands lowers estimate, to cut 24 jobs
ISELIN, N.J. – Intimate apparel maker Maidenform Brands Inc. said Thursday that it plans to cut 24 jobs — representing 9 percent of its corporate staff — and lowered its 2008 earnings estimate, as weak consumer spending continues to batter retailers.
grim: Is it correct to say this firm “cut jobs”……wouldn’t it be more appropriate to call it a “reduction”?
chi (398)-
So now women are just walking around with their t*ts flopping all over the place?
Pretty soon, it’s going to look like National Geographic around here if we can’t shore up the economy.
“Reminds me of a quote: ends in, “…shall end up homeless on the land their forefathers fought for.”
“Dummmmm, dummmmmmm, deee, dummmmm, dum, de, dumm, dummm, dummm, dummm, dum.
OMFG!! I actually get this!!
sl”
well, Jefferson would have been better off in his letter writing:
“First by inflation, then by deflation, then by inflation again.” People might have understood a little better.
“Lets give $30,000 vouchers to 30,000,000 people who actually pay taxes, not file and get refunds, who agre to use the voucher for the purchase of U.S. built and U.S. component plug-in hybrids — paying ther difference from their own pockets if the vehicles cost more, which they would, I suspect. Then, lets spend $600 billion to put $6,000 worth of photovoltaic cells on 100,000,000 private houses. We will put legions of manufacturing plants online, truck and train traffic will go up, installers and mechanics go to work, we lower our need to import energy. AND it costs less than throwing good money after bad on various half-baked plans.”
Im with ya brotha. I looked into the photovoltaic cells. Its not there yet from a cost/efficiency standpoint but its getting there. NJ rebates being phased out, Germany buying all our production. Heres the plan for a prosperous future.
1. Pay off car loan 7% — check
2. Refinance mortgage 4.75%, pay down principal to 50/50. — waiting on MBS rally
3. Purchase photovoltaic system 2012ish.
4. Purchase a 2015 version of the 1981 Toyota Tercel or equivalent.
That is my TARP plan.
“Sure isn’t driving rates down as quickly as anyone expected, especially when you consider they purchased $10.2 billion between January 5 – 7.
Totals, roughly, $33.6 billion dollars of MBS purchased over 9 days. From what I’ve seen in the MBS market, pricing has been basically flat, and I haven’t heard anything positive from lenders.”
Lenders are overwhelmed with refinacing applications which is why the rates arent being passed along to consumers. So long as the FED keeps buying the MBS and economic data remains weak there is little risk of rates going up. We are still in a period of deflation. Fed has bought 10 billion of MBS since they announed a plan to buy 500 billion in Nov.
#382 sas
I’ll come over for your next canning party. I’m enjoying this years peaches at the moment.
I don’t know about the rest of the nation but the southwest is doing very poorly. Arizona, for example, weathered past recessions very well. Not this time. We have entire streets empty and vacant.
I do not want anyone losing a home. But for those who are in the market to buy you will never see prices like this ever again.