From the Daily News:
New York to lead U.S. in job losses
New York is No. 1 again – this time, unfortunately, in job losses.
The city is projected to shed more jobs than any other metro area in the country this year, with 181,000 people likely find themselves without a paycheck.
The grim forecast can be traced to turmoil in the finance industry, which will account for more than 50,000 of the jobs lost, according to IHS Global Insight, which researched employment trends nationwide for the U.S. Conference of Mayors.
And New Yorkers will find the ripple effect to be painful.
“Financial jobs are crucial, they are high paying, they generate income spent on law firms, restaurants and ad agencies,” said Jim Diffley, managing director of at IHS Global Insight. “There will be spill-over that will be pretty broad.”
The unemployment rate in the New York area is expected to jump to 7.6% in the fourth quarter of 2009 from an estimated 6.1% in the same period last year.
The dark forecast could mark a turning point for the city, which until recently, had been faring better than the rest of the country. The city’s housing market has held up relatively well because there has been relatively less new construction here.
From the AP:
Report: New York to lead US cities in job losses
Only five metropolitan areas in the U.S. will escape job losses this year, according to a forecast released Saturday by the U.S. Conference of Mayors.
New York is expected to take the biggest hit as thousands of jobs are lost on Wall Street. Big financial firms are slashing workers as they cope with bad debt. Other companies have gone under, like Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., which filed for bankruptcy in September.
The New York area is expected to lose 181,000 jobs in 2009, the report said. Consulting company IHS Global Insight produced the report for the group.
Fiat + Chrysler = ?
From Bloomberg:
Roubini Predicts U.S. Losses May Reach $3.6 Trillion
U.S. financial losses from the credit crisis may reach $3.6 trillion, suggesting the banking system is “effectively insolvent,” said New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini, who predicted last year’s economic crisis.
“I’ve found that credit losses could peak at a level of 3.6 trillion for U.S. institutions, half of them by banks and broker dealers,” Roubini said at a conference in Dubai today. “If that’s true, it means the U.S. banking system is effectively insolvent because it starts with a capital of $1.4 trillion. This is a systemic banking crisis.”
Losses and writedowns at financial companies worldwide have risen to more than $1 trillion since the U.S. subprime mortgage market collapsed in 2007, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Sad sad sad…
From Gawker (yea, I know):
Times Takes Subprime Mexican Loan
The Times just borrowed $250 million from Mexican billionaire Carlos Slim, as anticipated. The interest rate? 14 percent. I pay less on my credit cards. Even more sad?
The money isn’t enough.
The Times will give quite a bit for for the honor of an investment from Slim, whose success has been chalked up to, variously, the sackfuls of money he delivered to Mexico’s then-ruling party in the early 1990s, the pushing away of competitors by that party, the high prices his company charged in an impoverished telecom market (thanks again to said party), allowing his country’s communications infrastructure to languish, and leveraging his Mexican monopoly into other businesses abroad.
In addition to a 14 percent interest rate —higher than one gossip-grubbing blogger’s non-teaser credit card rates of 9 and 10 percent — the paper is giving Slim warrants that could be converted into stock controlling 17 percent of the Times Company, making him the third-largest shareholder behind the Sulzberger family and Harbinger Capital, with roughly 20 percent each.
From the WSJ:
Fed Grapples With a New Risk Reality
It has loads of subprime-mortgage bonds, souring commercial real-estate debt and collateralized debt obligations worth a fraction of their original value. This isn’t Citigroup Inc. or Merrill Lynch. It is the Federal Reserve.
In the past year, the Fed lent out more than $1 trillion in its efforts to stabilize the financial and credit markets. A chunk of that was used to buy mortgage-related securities and loans in the rescues of Bear Stearns Cos. and American International Group Inc., as well as other debt shunned by investors.
Now, the government’s recent aid packages for Bank of America Corp. and Citigroup have the Fed playing the additional role of a backstop guarantor for portfolios of about $400 billion in troubled assets that were dragging down those banks. Those assets include residential- and commercial-mortgage loans, mortgage securities, corporate leveraged loans and credit-derivative positions.
As the U.S. central bank, the Fed has a mission to maintain financial and economic stability and contain systemic risk in the markets. It lends only when the loans can be “secured to [its] satisfaction,” according to laws that govern the Fed’s activities.
But as the economy slows, mortgage and corporate defaults climb, and asset prices continue to decline, analysts are beginning to argue that U.S. taxpayers could end up shouldering losses from some of the Fed’s moves.
The Fed’s lending could swell by another $1 trillion or more in 2009 as its liquidity programs are tapped further by borrowers and it purchases more bonds, such as those issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, as well as securities backed by student loans, auto loans, credit-card receivables and small-business loans.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=adQkm5jF7vjc&refer=home
Treasury Yields Flattened; Fed Seeks to Lower Mortgage Rates
“It now appears as if the Fed may use Treasury purchases as a blunt tool to bring loan rates down further.”
Fortunately there is a river of wealth running under Manhattan so real estate will continue to appreciate at double digit rates. /off sarcasm
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
Mish – Open Letter to Congress on Sharing the Pain
“California is a particular basket case.”
My biggest fear right now is Congress will throw money at the states, without requiring them to make the sacrifices that need to be made. Spending must be cut, programs must be cut, benefits must be slashed, and pensions must be capped.”
Pensions are a particularly sore point for many citizens. Promises have been made to unions that cannot be kept. Such promises caused the bankruptcy of the city of Vallejo, California. Other cities are sure to follow.
Wages and benefits of all government employees needs to be brought inline with wages and benefits in the private sector. There is no other way out. Pension benefits must be capped for all new state and federal hires. Taxpayers should not have to bear the pains for funding pension benefits for government employees when they have no such opportunities for themselves.
also..
More public projects would pass a cost-benefit test if we repealed the Davis-Bacon Act.
Lots more but he closes by offering the emails for Summers and Geithner and encourages everyone to forward the letter..
i’m hopeful that the new guy will do a great job, but the odds are too stacked against him.
it’s like a team hiring a new coach to turn around a struggling program, but oops, all the best players have already been scooped up and there’s absolutely nothing that can be done until at least next year.
anyone else celebrating inauguration day by purchasing ammo?
“It now appears as if the Fed may use Treasury purchases as a blunt tool to bring loan rates down further.”
Is it working? Nice sell off at the long-end of the curve this morning.
The country is in the initial phase of a deep recession. Wall Street is in a depression.
Ok, not that anybody really gives a f*ck nor am I looking for sympathy but I had knee surgery yesterday. So, I can’t move around a lot and I expect to be entertained by you all today. I want to hear tales of financial mishap due to stup*dity, real estate blunders and just some chaos and mayhem in general.
And still_looking, where are you? I want to share some goodies from my trip to the OR. :)
http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/2807
Some ideas from Luigi Zingales…Get a strategy..
Mr. Geithner, incumbent bankers and their lobbyists will always make you believe there is no alternative to the plan that benefits them the most. You cannot fall for this old trick. The alternatives I outlined above are not only possible, but also fair. They penalize those who invested poorly and help provide loans to businesses in need. On top of this, they achieve these goals at zero cost to taxpayers (no small feat in a time of ballooning deficits.) Yes we can Mr. Geithner,…if you lead us there.
BC Bob – Boots on? What’s your status, chief?
Ok, not that anybody really gives a f*ck nor am I looking for sympathy but I had knee surgery yesterday.
Was this a planned thing? Or accidental?
“Ok, not that anybody really gives a f*ck nor am I looking for sympathy but I had knee surgery yesterday.”
Gary,
What were you doing, chasing Donovan McNabb?
RE: New York to lead U.S. in job losses
It’s different here?
At the mall over the weekend saw some deep pain on display. Stores, ones which weren’t closed down, were practically giving things away. Big stores such as Macys and Sears must be in DEEP trouble as some of the prices were at or below cost.
The world is 60% off, except housing, that’s different.
From CNBC:
Bank of America Could Cut 4,000 Jobs: Report
Bank of America may slash as much as 4,000 jobs in its capital markets units starting this week, the Financial Times reported on its Web site quoting executives familiar with the matter.
The cuts are expected to be in New York and reflect the consolidation of the bank’s sales and trading businesses after it bought Merrill Lynch three weeks ago.
The capital markets headcount of the combined banks is expected to be reduced by between 30 and 40 percent, meaning the number of job cuts could reach about 4,000, a Merrill executive told the paper.
From CNBC:
Cerberus May Lay off 10% of its Worldwide Staff
U.S. private equity firm Cerberus Capital Management, majority owner of automaker Chrysler, may cut about 10 percent of its worldwide staff, a source familiar with the situation said on Monday.
…
Cerberus is headquartered in New York City with either affiliate or advisory offices in Atlanta, Chicago, Los Angeles, London, Baarn, Frankfurt, Hong Kong, Tokyo, Beijing, Osaka, Taipei and Dubai, according to its Web site.
The company has more than 275 investment and operations professionals according to past press releases.
change and hope [13],
If it’s good enough for U-2, why not?
“U2 fans, get your boots on. The first song from the band’s first album in five years is ready for you to hear. U2 began broadcasting the up-tempo single “Get on Your Boots” yesterday”
http://www.boston.com/ae/celebrity/articles/2009/01/20/these_boots_are_u2s/
change and hope,
One other item. The key is to find a qualified seller.
Gary,
When you kick someone for being stupid, you’re supposed to use your feet (steel toe boots are preferred) not your knee!
“Fiat + Chrysler = ?”
Underpowered cars that break-down often?
My surgery was a result of a fall due to a x@nax overdose. lol! I’m kidding!! It was planned! Now maybe I can get back to playing Free Safety and blind-siding QBs again.
What is Corzine going to do?
CA in for belt tightening.
“Schwarzenegger has ordered state workers to take two days off a month without pay, starting in February, while departments have been asked to take 10 percent, across-the-board cuts.”
I haven’t seen any official looking numbers on where the state budget goes, so I’ll repeat this which I saw posted on another forum:
30% K-12
28% Health and Human Services
10% higher ed
9% Business, transportation, housing assistance.
9% total cost of just running the government
7% Dept of corrections
There is 93% of CA’s budget.
It also looks like, post proposed tax increases and other cuts, the state is close to 10% over budget (down from an initial 50% over budget).
Assuming that is true, eduction/healthcare/welfare will almost certainly have to take a bit hit as other buckets simply aren’t large enough to make up the difference. Either that or other programs will be nickle and dimed, but that would probably take too long to sort out relative to chops in the meatier areas.
Unfortunately, eduction/healthcare/welfare cuts are going to be nasty fights as these programs typically have a lot of supporters.
Geez Gary! I’ve had both my knees done and the recovery sure can be a b*tch! Hope you’re up and wreaking havoc again soon.
“Treasury Demands Banks With TARP Funds Report Lending Activity”
“Jan. 20 (Bloomberg) — The U.S. Treasury, under pressure to revive lending, is demanding monthly reports from the banks that received the most capital from the government’s $700 billion rescue program. ”
me thinks they’re a bit late… no?
My surgery was a result of a fall due to a x@nax overdose. lol! I’m kidding!! It was planned! Now maybe I can get back to playing Free Safety and blind-siding QBs again.
Look at the bright side, better drugs.
Gary-X@nax overdose! lmao, did you drool yourself into dehydration
Thanks Gator! Yeah, it s*cks right now but I’m optimistic it will help in the long run. Hey… did I just say “optimistic”?
Gary,
Clearly you have the audacity to hope to achieve the dreams of your father. Yes you can buy an overpriced home.
Gary,
Kick back with a warm cup of coffee and a copy of today’s Los Tiempos del Nueva York.
LOL! You guys are killing me!! :)
Off to Jury Duty, hopefully I will get a nice trial, that does not involve the Gambinos.
Yes you did, Gary. It’s morning in America again!
Gary,
Sounds like a good day for some Paterson Plank Joe highlights, I mean lowlights.
Being in the car biz- i see this first hand.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com:80/2009/01/unsold-car-images-from-around-world.html?ref=patrick.net
“A wise man once told me…”
Gary – Do you remember that? You nailed me but good for being the neophyte that I am.
One thing you can always depend on here – honesty. Brutal though it may be sometimes – just keepin it real.
I hope you are around again soon…
http://themessthatgreenspanmade.blogspot.com/2009/01/how-far-to-bottom-in-housing.html
Some R/E charts from The Mess That Greenspan made
“anyone else celebrating inauguration day by purchasing ammo?”
No,
Just celebrating Inauguration Day.
KL
[8] change and hope,
If you haven’t got your order in, better get on it. Wonder if my high capacity clips were delivered to the family compound in Maine yet?
Just so I understand correctly, moments after B*rack Husse*n Ob*ma is sworn in, jobs will be created, healthcare will be given to all, political foes will unite and the economy will improve, right?
(41) Gary
Let the festivities begin…
Gary,
Give the guy a chance.
What I want to know, is what the reaction will be when the Fed/Treasury/Geithner bails out yet another bank under Obama’s watch.
Will there be acceptance or outrage? Disillusionment or denial?
By the way, presidential candidate names are longer blacklisted.
(43) Grim
“Give the guy a chance.”
All I ask for is a plan. Anything but being in constant crisis management mode.
“By the way, presidential candidate names are longer blacklisted.”
Sorry to hear that.
All I ask for is a plan. Anything but being in constant crisis management mode.
Given the breadth and depth of the economic crisis, at this point all we can hope for is crisis management. He starts his term with a terrible set of cards, and he can’t fold. A bit unfortunate since the vast majority of his first year is going to be dealing with the crisis.
Change? Sorry folks, due to scheduling issues, “change” will need to be postponed for a year or so.
(47) Agreed – But a plan to manage the crisis…instead of the “we have to do this right now” Paulson threats…
gary,
Hi… please share… this cough thing has now made my throat feel like a bad battery acid burn…. woke up today feeling like I had been knee-capped…. wait, speaking of knee-capping…. and stiffer than John salivating in front of a jumbo spanish onion.
Truly.
I feel like the newly UnDead.
sl
Sorry to hear that.
I’d look partisan if I blacklisted the president. After all, we spent plenty of time bashing Bush administration policies, only fair to open the floor to some O-bashing.
Anyhow, I reserve the right to end any or all political discussions here and re-establish the blacklisting (including circumvention).
Obama McCain
Oh, that felt so forbidden.
“circumvention”
Doesn’t that require a rabbi?
5pm tonight the honey moon period is over, my only question is who promised more our new commander in chief or Mayoff? Either way they can’t deliver.
gary,
BTW on a serious note:
Make sure you are moving around to some degree and exercising your leg muscles (as much as your Orthopod will allow.)
Any large joint surgery puts you at risk for a DVT(deep vein thrombosis) and PE(pulmonary embolus.)
These are life threatening complications that you want to really avoid.
I’m sure your doc gave you some warning about it but just be forewarned ok?
sl
I am sure it does, but once you have one where do you hide your gum during a sandstorm?
Shore Guy says:
January 20, 2009 at 9:10 am
“circumvention”
Doesn’t that require a rabbi?
Obama! Woot!
My list of things folks should stock up on before the 0bama and/or Corzine administrations outlaw or heavily regulate them (besides the obvious ones):
1. Incandescent light bulbs
2. An SUV
3. Disposable butane lighters
4. Aerosolized products (deodorant, spray paint, etc.)
5. Tobacco products (in my case, cigars)
6. Carbonated beverages
7. Motor oil
8. Clothing, esp. children’s (but not baby/toddler) clothing.
Some of these are obvious (like tobacco), some less so. For example, I expect a tax on motor oil in order to fund cleanups. I expect the price of children’s clothes to go up dramatically because of new testing requirements (though I will hold off on baby/toddler because I want testing for that). I expect that the feds or NJ will follow the lead of some cities when it comes to spray paint or lighters, and tax them to offset societal costs.
SUVs may be subject to new taxes or CAFE requirements, so an SUV or light truck will be smaller, lighter (and therefore less safe or capable) in the future.
The incandescent light bulb’s days are numbered. The dems have already targeted them for phaseout.
Feel free to add to the list, and cite to the authority if known.
Well I feel great, I voted for McCain so I am looking forward to four years of I told you so.
So, what is the first economic act Obama takes and will it be this afternoon, before getting dressed to dance the night away or first thing in the a.m. complete with a stroll into the Brady Briefing room?
SG 53 “circumvention” Doesn’t that require a rabbi?
[best possible Beavis/Butthead voice] Tee hee hee hee… he said circumVention! ahee hee hee.
Nope, well. atleast a Moyel – and they do accept tips…
sl
“The incandescent light bulbs days are numbered”
Except for the white Christmas lights that give off that lovely golden glow on a snowy evening, it is fine by me. We are just about entirely LED and CF, with no issues.
“Moyel ”
Didn’t Bush say he had one of those removed by his dermatologist last summer?
Nevertheless, the National Association of Realtors (or NAR) and its dedicated minions have tirelessly peddled their lies that ours is a buyer’s market. Let’s take a quick jaunt back in time to some recent headlines and where that traditional assessment of a buyer’s market got us:
Las Vegas: It’s Definitely a Buyer’s Market
USA Today: July 5, 2006
How true. Property values in Vegas have fallen 33% since summer 2006. Not to be outdone by their peers at USA Today, ABC ran this piece just weeks later:
Take Advantage of Real Estate’s Buyer’s Market
ABC News: July 31, 2006
“The National Association of Realtors said that the number of homes for sale has reached new heights, which is good news for buyers.”
Anyone who bought in that “buyer’s paradise” in Phoenix has seen their home’s value fall by more than 30%.
The point isn’t to criticize realtors for arguing it’s a buyer’s market: After all, one should expect nothing less from a group whose entire existence is based on convincing buyers it’s a great time to buy – irrespective of the truth. Just ask Gary Keller, whose new book, Shift: How Top Real Estate Agents Tackle Tough Times, advises agents to “find every way possible to overcome the media-driven real-estate malaise.”
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Keepin-It-Real-Estate-Buyers-minyanville-14069396.html
[62] shore
I expect that there will be exceptions. No politician is going to sign onto banning Christmas lights and risk being cast as a hateful, green creature from Ted Geisel’s imagination.
[62] shore
but what I wouldn’t give for a reasonably priced, DIMMABLE CF.
I have freakin’ dimmers all over the house it seems.
What is Corzine going to do?
CA in for belt tightening.
While CA’s governor is making some hard choices and making deep cuts in their state, even pushing back against its unionized workers (off limits in NJ), Corzine is proposing…..soci@lzed pre school. WTF?
[61] sl
D’oh!
(btw, you are home, right, and not spreading your germs to patients???)
I’m sure this has been posted but a $1 and a dream will get you a home in Detroit.
http://www.denverpost.com/business/ci_11475891
Ban the warm, comforting glow of tungsten?
At the minimum, we’d need a “Holiday Decoration” exemption, a headlight exemption, and a historic exemption. We would probably need some sort of voucher program too, like the DTV program.
It might make more sense to add a new “Tungsten Tax” on incandescent bulbs, use those revenues to provide subsidies on CFL/LED lighting as well as increase R&D through grants/programs.
I was in Italy a few months ago for 2 weeks. We rented a Fiat diesel hatchback. The mileage was incredible, i was averaging almost 100k/gallon, thats almost 60 miles per gallon. If they can bring that technology here, we can kill those gas pumps.
Remember driving a Fiat 126p (Aka “Maluch”, translated as “little one”) over in Poland a few years back. Those things make a SMART look downright roomy. Neighbor was working on the car and had the driver’s seat out. At 6-2, I was very comfortable driving the car from the back seat.
rich 71, grim 72
just don’t get hit, in an accident or take out large game (roadkill, and I don’t mean the animal…)
sl
still_looking,
Thanks for the advice. I have been hobbling around as much as possible. Gee, I really don’t need any of those conditions. :)
just don’t get hit, in an accident or take out large game
You are ignoring the obvious economic synergies here. Get killed in a little Fiat and your family would save hundreds on the cost of a coffin.
Man, look at the stock prices for RBS, BAC, State Street and Barclays.
The new prez better start working the phones as soon as he gets off the podium this afternoon.
Philadelphia area foreclosure filings up 98% last year.
Foreclosure filings in the Philadelphia area increased by 98 percent last year and by 164 percent in Camden, N.J.
The rate in Philadelphia was much lower than the national average while Camden was slightly above it, according to RealtyTrac, a California company that publishes foreclosure data.
http://tinyurl.com/8m5mbk
Actually I am happy Fiat is buying Chrysler. Both are equally unreliable. But my dodge dart was rather heavy to push when it broke down. However, when my Fiat Strada Hatchback broke down it was much lighter to push and even better in the winter to push as the electric rear window defroster still worked when the engine was not running so it kept my hands toasty warm.
Grim 3,
NY Times should have just asked for TARP funds. They’ll lend it to them for 8% and you don’t really have to pay it back.
Things are so bad there that WC Fields had his tombstone changed to I rather not be in Philadelphia.
Secondary Market says:
January 20, 2009 at 9:42 am
Philadelphia area foreclosure filings up 98% last year.
Foreclosure filings in the Philadelphia area increased by 98 percent last year and by 164 percent in Camden, N.J.
The rate in Philadelphia was much lower than the national average while Camden was slightly above it, according to RealtyTrac, a California company that publishes foreclosure data.
http://tinyurl.com/8m5mbk
all hype 76
au contrere, mon frer.
your eyes should be on skf…. :)
sl
grim, 75
and would assuredly skipping one’s open casket viewing.
Perhaps cremation might be in order then as one would already be in one’s urn!
sl
Oh god, I made the mistake of going to this forum which is obsessed with a zombies, birdflu outbreaks, government conspiracies and guns n ammo. This was the WRONG decision; now I’m looking into fallout shelters and covering my family members with bactine.
We are all doomed signing off KaPoom!
IMHO, while current screw-in CFL technology is more efficient than incandescent, it is hardly an optimal solution. It makes little sense to throw out a perfectly good ballast when a bulb dies. Frankly, I’d like to see more fixtures use a built-in ballast and have replaceable fluorescent bulbs. In addition, full-size ballasts are typically more energy efficient and provide less “flicker” than the micro-ballasts used in disposable screw-ins.
Frankly, I think smaller wattage HID lighting might be a better solution for in-home residential lighting. Metal Halide bulbs are more efficient than CFL, and provide a spectrum that is very close to sunlight (including good color rendition).
IMHO, I wouldn’t be surprised if HID lighting used less mercury than CFL bulbs. But I’ve got no clue about that.
@80 John,
And Ben Franklin was just evicted from his grave site.
Canada cuts to 1%
Nom, 68
what? who? me?
It’s those microbe spewing vermin who have infected me.
But, yes. I am home. And in dire need of relief as delirium sets in. Perhaps I should go to an ER..
buahaahahahaaaha. Never!
sl
All hail Barrack Obama. He appears to be the greatest thing that could have happened to my short portfolio.
SKF is on Stereoids. Did Barack inherit a his PPT? It could be bloodshed this week.
If things get ugly today, like 500-700 down and you have some MOJO, CPRP is at 23% yield and CPRI is at 20% yield, two of citi’s pref stocks. Yea they might nationlize the damm thing, but at a yield of 30% you just need a few more quarters till you are playing with the houses money.
Another fat, stupid, drunken bast*rd clinging to a pipe dream:
http://njmls.xmlsweb.com/public/p/ListingDetails.aspx?StartRow=1&Position=11&lid=2844418&prop_type=1&report_id=c_full
possible 7 handle DOW on inauguration day? Where is the O’bama Bump?
our new prez makes bush seem like a rock star. His is a master speechmaker and a master at getting people to follow him. However, running for office is a lot of second guessing, being president requires him and him alone to make the decisions. He is about as seasoned as a piece of wonderbread, lets see how he handles his first big test. He is soon to join the list of one hit wonders, no second term for you I am already bored with you 42 minutes into the first trading day of your presidency. .
He is soon to join the list of one hit wonders, no second term for you I am already bored with you 42 minutes into the first trading day of your presidency. .
What’s a matter John you’re getting beat up this morning. I like the way you put it ” I’m bored”
I think it’s kind of exciting to have the SKF up 60% since New Years.(20 days)
Is anyone else here “Bored” today.
Poor John:
His free lunch money is about to be taken away from him…so sad
John,
A community organizer who’s about to get the deer-in-the-headlights awakening of a lifetime. Good luck. You have Pelosi, Reid and the Messiah. Give the people what they want but I don’t to hear the whining and crying from the masses due to broken promises. Not that I’m enamored with the Republic*ns lately, but how long will it be before I hear that things are not getting done because of Republic*n gridlock?
Hey I am not down today, I own all bonds right now, I could care less about stock price except in my 401K. Actually there would be a public lynching of the white house if the major banks collasped. Because the govt took pref stock stakes in them and bond holders are ahead of pref stock holders so in liquidation the money the govt kicked in would go to the bonds holders. Pretty much we will continue to see small banks collaspe ever other Friday and a few shot gun marriages in banks along with the usually continue decline in share price. You can still buy SKF and bankbonds at the same time which is very weird.
make money says:
January 20, 2009 at 10:16 am
He is soon to join the list of one hit wonders, no second term for you I am already bored with you 42 minutes into the first trading day of your presidency. .
What’s a matter John you’re getting beat up this morning. I like the way you put it ” I’m bored”
I think it’s kind of exciting to have the SKF up 60% since New Years.(20 days)
Is anyone else here “Bored” today.
Things are not getting done because of a Republican gridlock. There, I said it. :)
grim says:
January 20, 2009 at 8:13 am
Gary, Kick back with a warm cup of coffee and a copy of today’s Los Tiempos del Nueva York.
grim: this post is your best of all time….
Victorian,
LOL! Excellent! :)
“And Ben Franklin was just evicted from his grave site.”
Did he take out a grave equity loan with a balloon payment?
C and BAC rapidly circling the drain.
Shareholders bailing on certainty of nationalization?
Nothing like a couple of bank collapses on one’s first day in the Oval Office — and without a Treasury Secretary.
Dow down 168. Up at noon or further down?
Gotta love that pimped out Caddy limo, here is a pic of the inside.
http://tinyurl.com/a33as2
I see the bad moon arising.
I see trouble on the way.
I see earthquakes and lightnin’.
I see bad times today.
Don’t go around tonight,
Well, it’s bound to take your life,
There’s a bad moon on the rise.
I hear hurricanes are blowing.
I know the end is coming soon.
I fear rivers over flowing.
I hear the voice of rage and ruin.
Don’t go around tonight,
Well, it’s bound to take your life,
There’s a bad moon on the rise.
All right!
Hope you got your things together.
Hope you are quite prepared to die.
Looks like we’re in for nasty weather.
One eye is taken for an eye.
Don’t go around tonight,
Well, it’s bound to take your life,
There’s a bad moon on the rise.
Don’t go around tonight,
Well, it’s bound to take your life,
There’s a bad moon on the rise.
http://tinyurl.com/8g46f7
In your ears,
SAS
where’s my sucker’s rally?? I need to reload…
sl
Shore Guy [103],
Who cares? It’s party time in DC, yo! $170,000,000 inaguration and 10 balls to attend. It’s all about status and appearance.
“Nothing like a couple of bank collapses on one’s first day in the Oval Office — and without a Treasury Secretary.”
And if you eliminate the fed you’ll be 2 for 2.
From CR copied from another post.
People are dancing in the streets of the nation’s capital, security personnel are all smiles and high-fives as they guide inauguration-goers toward the festivities, cheers and tears of joy flow like wine. All is well. The wicked witch is gone! A new regime, a regime of hope and optimism, has today enters the palace. Hope! Hope above all else! As I’ve said many times before, I have a real problem with hope when it is false. Hope is wonderful if it is accompanied by possibility and truth. Hope that accompanies terminal illness, however, is delusion. Our economy is terminally ill, the prognosis is death, 100% guaranteed. No amount of celebration and goodwill and excitement and joy can change that reality.
Why terminal you ask? Because all of our banks and other financial institutions are insolvent. They are hiding tens of trillions of dollars in derivatives-borne toxic assets from prying eyes.
Now, before continuing on with my Mephostophilian tale of woe, let me offer a few quick points to the nay-sayers and ‘Skeptical Sams’ regarding the derivatives crisis:
1. Even if the Ponzi-derived debt is but 1/10th of the estimated value of half-a-QUADRILLION dollars in derivatives-based toxicity, we’re still looking at $50 Trillion, give or take. That’s almost 5 times the GNP of the USA.
2. Many point to the Lehman Brothers CDS and derivatives situation as an example of the hyperbole being employed by people like me vis-a-vis the current crisis. The Lehman “unraveling”, however, took place under unique circumstances. All of the concerned parties were focused squarely upon this ONE institution not precipitating the portended systemic collapse. Now we’re looking at ten’s of institutions, and there simply aren’t enough resources to save them all at once. Also, I do not trust the DTCC’s (They are a private institution created and operated by the very banks in question) accounting of the Lehman event. Do you?
3. Let’s address this concept of notional value right now. To begin with, the notional value on an instrument is an estimation of value which is then used to figure out what kinds of payments will need to be made on the instrument in question. We know that virtually all valuation, which has occurred without any regulatory oversight, does not accurately represent the value of the instrument. This is quite problematic. For one, notional becomes REAL when one domino begins the defaulting process. Counterparty risk, once exposed, is real regardless of honest or fraudulent asset valuation. Also, the trillions in bets and supposed profits were used as collateral by the profiteers to CONSUME real goods and services. As such, a bank holding billions in securitized instruments is in fact holding billions in worthless, but REAL, assets. These securities, as we know, are based upon bundles of mortgages and other debt instruments that represent real-world assets and real world values (fraudulent as they may be)—as such, while the actual ‘value’ of these debts is virtually impossible to precisely pinpoint, they are nonetheless no longer simply notional values. And I stress the distinction here because the term notional has been twisted by folks in the financial industry to assert that since values cannot be accurately assessed, all valuations must in fact by gross exaggerations. Could it be that people like yours truly are actually UNDER-estimating the total debt burden of these banks and other financials?? I mean, just look at Citi and BofA. When all is said and done, keeping those two institutions afloat my cost over a trillion dollars alone!
4. In a Ponzi-like pyramid (such as that of the CDS market), and in the digital age of speed-of-light information dissemination, counterparty risk cannot be mitigated unless all risk is dissolved in the very same instant. That level of coordination is not only impossible, it would never occur within a system in which certain individuals will continue to exploit the suffering and destruction of others’ wealth for their own gain. Imagine, if you will, the computer game World of Warcraft (Which by the way I have never played, but having been a high school teacher and principal about which I have heard many-a-tale). In this game, simultaneity is crucial. If one player has a high speed connection and a really fast CPU, while another is connected via 55.6 K modem and has an old Compaq Presario, the fellow with the faster connection literally makes moves more quickly. The dial-up dude dies time and again, because as he is still readying to fire his weapon at his foe, his foe with the Cable Modem has already torched him and moved on to the next sorte. Get the picture?
5. As commodities prices collapse under the strains of a deflationary regime, hundreds of billions of dollars in futures contracts (Futures are a type of derivative) will be defaulted upon. This will mean immediate insolvency for hundreds of institutions who have added “expected” income to their already inaccurate balance sheets. And don’t forget, these institutions have already spent (with debt) their “expected” income on goods and services that they will now be unable to pay for. Cascading insolvency results. Simple math.
Folks, our financial institutions are dead-men walking, they are no longer going concerns, their illness is terminal, and yet our leaders continue to throw hundreds of billions of dollars at them as if, by some miracle, the illness will magically disappear and the patient will dance out of the hospital, cured and ready to begin anew. Now here’s the the thing. Our government could, in fact, try to buy a miracle, but not from hope and not with $1 Trillion, or $3 Trillion nor even $5 Trillion. Our leaders could make a pact with the Devil: In exchange for some $25 Trillion (minimum) to save all of the financial institutions (in the USA alone) from failure, our leaders could offer Satan the souls of 300 million Americans. And what would hell look like? Debt-servitude in perpetuity, 20+% unemployment for years to come, the complete collapse of the U.S. bond market, catastrophic demographic shifts away from urban centers and into the surrounding countrysides, social upheaval and chaos. These and more, much more, are the prices of trying to tamper with reality by making the penultimate Faustian Bargain. And from what I can tell, as unbelievable as it may seem, our leaders stand ready to make just such a pact with evil.
My question is this: As the throngs dance the night away at the tens of inauguration balls and other celebrations marking the coming of our 44th President, who among the celebrants has already chosen to dance with the devil?
BTW you don’t necessarily cause inflation by pumping money in via bad bank or buying toxic assests. If Joe Investor took one million out of his bank to buy MBS that are now worth 200K and the treasury buys them for 100% over face for 400K, you did not pump anymore back in.
The other dasy, I put up a link to Reagan’s First Inaugral address and mentioned how it struck me that Obama could take the address and tweal it a bit and it would be relevant to today. I just tuned into ABC to see what they were doing and heard a conversation between the anchor and guests about how it struck them as so relevant to today and that they expect to hear many of the same themes in Obama’s address.
The other day, I put up a link to Reagan’s First Inaugral address and mentioned how it struck me that Obama could take the address and tweal it a bit and it would be relevant to today. I just tuned into ABC to see what they were doing and heard a conversation between the anchor and guests about how it struck them as so relevant to today and that they expect to hear many of the same themes in Obama’s address.
A visual feast for The Devoted:
http://boston.com/bigpicture/2008/11/the_next_president_of_the_unit.html
Imagery of which Leni Riefenstahl could only dream…
I wish him well, and I’m glad foreigners like our president so much, but the level of delusion and adulation among “fans” is disturbing.
If Joe Investor took one million out of his bank to buy MBS that are now worth 200K and the treasury buys them for 100% over face for 400K, you did not pump anymore back in.
MBS securities and the likes were not bought with savings but leveraged 30-50 times.
one million worth of capital bought you 50 million worth of MBS junk.
JOhn,
Inflation is coming. It the words of pilot Sully “brace yourseves for impact”
“BTW you don’t necessarily cause inflation by pumping money in via bad bank or buying toxic assests”
No, you just rape taxpayers and future generations.
[78] John,
and it takes only 4 guys to lift a Fiat Rallye up over a snowbank to roll it into a ravine after the transmission blows on the ski trip and the owner is too broke to have it towed back to Boston. Try that with a Duster.
At least, that is what I hear. Not that I ever was involved in trashing a Fiat. No, just a random musing.
How out of touch are these politicians and Washington DC? They should make it a very low key inauguration, cancel the balls & parties, send the idiot celebrities home and get to work already. It is a joke!!!
BC Bob, “taxpayers” well since only 5% of people actually pay any meaningfull taxes then 95% of people don’t care.
34 minutes until the New World Order, comrades.
[119] John,
If I have my way, that 5% is gonna get smaller.
Actually, I think it will get smaller anyway; I just want to get in on the action of helping it become so.
comrade non deplume,
Окончательно, упование и изменение мы пожелали для здесь!
SAS –
you better tone it down a notch or reinvestor101 will be yelling at you again today
;-)
John,
You or someone else can correct me on the exact figure but my recollection is that the lower 50% of taxpayers pays 3% of the taxes. Add to this that many people do not earn enough to have taxable income and there are an awful lot of people with no skin in the game. I think the figure is that the top 5% of us pay 75-80% of the taxes.
“well since only 5% of people actually pay any meaningfull taxes then 95% of people don’t care.”
John,
If you don’t have a job, I agree.
STT down 50% on the day, to under $19.
I am soooooooooooooooo glad I bailed out of that last year. Wish I had the foresight to do that with other investments.
Layoff announcements keep coming too. I seem to recall saying that there would be layoffs ahead of 0bama, with some done on the premise that it will be easier to let people go now than after today (or at least before new legislation goes into effect).
I also seem to recall some on the left taking me to task for daring to think such a thing. Well, I am still thinking it, and there seems to be a lot more evidence now. Care to disagree?
[124] shore,
That was the crux of 0bama’s electoral strategy.
[122] comrade Gary,
Sorry, my russian is awfully rusty.
I pledge allegiance, to the Czar, of the United Soci@lists States of America. And to the dictatorship for which he stands, a fractured Nation, under the messiah, indivisible, with sickles and hammers for all.
“Care to disagree?”
Correlation does not imply causation. We have had the worst economic disaster since WWII. Would that have something to do with it?
Looks like it is Drudge Report day today. While we are at it, I think the big O caused the dinosaurs to go extinct as well. They foresaw this election and decided to kill themselves to avoid living under a soc!ialist regime.
From Bloomberg:
One-Quarter of Stimulus Money Won’t Be Spent by 2011, CBO Says
At least one-quarter of House Democrats’ proposed $825 billion economic stimulus plan wouldn’t be spent until at least 2011, according to a report that suggests the package may take longer than expected to boost the economy.
A Congressional Budget Office analysis said most of the plan’s $355 billion in appropriations for programs such as highway construction wouldn’t be spent until after 2010. The government would spend about $26 billion of that money this year and $110 billion more next year, the report estimated. It projected the government would spend $103 billion in 2011, $53 billion in 2012 and $63 billion from 2013 to 2019.
Nom –
Here is some data for you. According to your thesis, there would be more job gains under a R than a D.
Job Loss or Gain by President and Party
* (D) Roosevelt 5.3
* (D) Johnson 3.8
* (D) Carter 3.1
* (D) Truman 2.5
* (D) Clinton 2.4
* (D) Kennedy 2.3
* (R) Nixon 2.2
* (R) Reagan 2.1
* (R) Coolidge 1.1
* (R) Ford 1.1
* (R) Eisenhower 0.9
* (R) G. Bush 0.6
* (R) G.W. Bush -0.7
* (R) Hoover -9.0
http://www.dkosopedia.com/wiki/Data_on_Job_Creation_by_President
Did I ever mention that I was named after Jimmy Carter?
Or Jimi Hendrix, depending on who you ask.
“* (R) G. Bush 0.6
* (R) G.W. Bush -0.7”
So, after three Bush terms, in three different decades, there is a net loss of jobs?
Make Money
Re inflation:
I beleieve that we are 3-4 years out before we see serious inflation. I think many people drastically underestimate the amount of debt to be deleveraged and wiped out during the deflationary phase.
Deflation is not generally a short term event, look at historical examples. i think our deflationary period will last 4 – 6 years. If it started in 08 then we are looking at 2012-2014. then we will see massive inflation.
I think the issue is that the government refuses to acknowledge the massive losses in both RE and finance that have taken place. As they throw more and more money at the problem in order to hide the loses, they only prolong the deflationary period.
The credit card companies havent even taken any serious hits yet, not like the banks. When they do start taking big hits ( or acknowledging them) and when the first bank holiday hits, you will see how deep deflation goes.
Given the choice, I would take Hendrix
“A Congressional Budget Office analysis said most of the plan’s $355 billion in appropriations for programs such as highway construction wouldn’t be spent until after 2010.”
Well, it will take approx 6 months to decide which brother-in law, contractor, contributed the most to the cause. After that, it will take him about 6 months to hire the illegals to mix the cement. After 2010, that’s about right.
The New U.S.S.A Anthem:
Be glorious, our free Fatherland!
Eternal union of fraternal peoples,
Common wisdom given by our forebears,
Be glorious, our country! We are proud of you!
Woa, waht happened to the last half of that post?
Prezident Obama’s first task:
Nationalize BAC and Citi. They are dropping like a stone!
Hit the phones Mr. Prezident!
Grim, once met Jimi Hendrix at Manny’s music store back in Nov of’69.
Victorian @ 11:44pm — LOL at your “source.”
I actually was his stunt double with the the plaster casters girls
nj escapee says:
January 20, 2009 at 11:53 am
Grim, once met Jimi Hendrix at Manny’s music store back in Nov of’69.
http://tycho.usno.navy.mil/simpletime.html
For anyone who wants to know exactly when we are Bush free. They don’t seem to have one for the RE bottom.
Victorian, Shore Guy see:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jobs_created_during_U.S._presidential_terms
Grim, I actually audit Chip Carter once at Bank of Bermuda in Bermuda, he looks identical to Jimmy Carter. Really weird picture Jimmy Carter in Bermuda shorts and a blue blazer with red tie.
grim says:
January 20, 2009 at 11:47 am
Did I ever mention that I was named after Jimmy Carter?
Or Jimi Hendrix, depending on who you ask.
somebody quick give Arethra Franklin an IV she looks about dead and sounds horrible.
man alive that was awful.
SAS
Looks like Aretha stole the TARP, stand up now folks and don’t sit back down, just bend over.
So, Biden took his oath 3 minutes early. Cheney would have used that as a loophole not to have to protect the Constitution.
BC I always will have a job, fools are cheering in front of NYSE right now at the giant screen tv.
BC Bob says:
January 20, 2009 at 11:33 am
“well since only 5% of people actually pay any meaningfull taxes then 95% of people don’t care.”
John,
If you don’t have a job, I agree.
It’s kinda odd how many people are upset that a large majority of Americans like our incoming President.
It is noon folks. Bush free at last. Bush free at last. Thank God above, we are Bush free at last.
From MarketWatch:
Bank of America needs over $80 bln in new capital, FBR says
#93. John says:
January 20, 2009 at 10:12 am
our new prez makes bush seem like a rock star. His is a master speechmaker and a master at getting people to follow him. However, running for office is a lot of second guessing, being president requires him and him alone to make the decisions. He is about as seasoned as a piece of wonderbread, lets see how he handles his first big test. He is soon to join the list of one hit wonders, no second term for you I am already bored with you 42 minutes into the first trading day of your presidency. .
————————————–
How true. I wonder what the masses will do when he can’t deliver on his promises? Stocking up on ammo/canned food is probably a reasonable thing to do now. God help us.
Qwerty (144) –
How is that different?
When do I get my government job and free lifetime health care?
It is noon folks. Bush free at last. Bush free at last. Thank God above, we are Bush free at last.
I concur, only wish that it was on better economic terms.
well, i think sitting on my thrown in the bathroom with a bowl movement will feel better than this…
ah.. now if i only had a good steak for lunch too.
i would be happy.
SAS
I think I will give it 10 minutes and call some of the White House numbers I have and see who picks up.
Chuchundra [150],
Upset? It’s a joyous moment, I get a job and wall-to-wall coverage!
RE: Victorian asks “How is that different?”
Ah, the numbers are all different.
obama chokes!
Must be an amazing scene in Washington.
WTF, the Chief Justice does not know the oath of office for president and can’t read it off a piece of paper? Wait ’til the conspiricy minded to start up with “He didn’t take THE oath.”
Did the messiah just f*ck up the oath or is it the endocet and x@nak kicking in?
“Must be an amazing scene in Washington”
was better when we saw Kennedy
Shore:
from the source:
http://www.ustreas.gov/press/releases/reports/factsheetwhopaysmostindividualincometaxes.update.pdf
It’s for 2002, the last year avilable, which seem criminal in itself…
[Share of Adjusted Gross Income]
Top 50%
96.5%
Bottom
50%
3.5%
I just choose that info becuase it matches the percentages you quoted, except they are not the top 5%, its the top 50%
There’s a LOT more to consider though…
property taxes
sales taxes
govt fees (car reg, etc)
etc etc etc…
And don’t forget that CORPORATIONS DON’T pay taxes, (very broad overview-I know) so many rich folk set up shelters in the form of corps to pay themselves and provide bennies tax free. (private air travel, limos/cars & drivers, special health care needs, personal staff, etc)
welcome to 1984.
To be fair to Obama, he saw that Roberts messed up and when Roberts failed to correct himself Obama just repeated what Roberts said, even though what Roberts said was wrong.
Dis he just say data and statistics?
#157. sas says:
January 20, 2009 at 12:01 pm
ah.. now if i only had a good steak for lunch too.
i would be happy.
SAS
————————————–
I’m actually cooking a ribeye steak now for dinner. Just as well eat well as the Titanic slowly sinks. I think I can hear the band playing in the background…
My god, how refreshing is it to have a President that doesn’t sound like an idiot when he speaks.
Free at last! Free at last!
Drawing from Reagan, down to naming battlefields.
“fools are cheering in front of NYSE right now at the giant screen tv.”
John,
Are they watching CNBC and short STT or long SKF?
i wish Kennedy was still alive.
now, that was real change.
a real speech about change.
this speech was nothing but an advertisement agency ad.
terrible
SAS
I wonder if Justice Roberts is being beaten right now like an unwanted stepchild for effing up the messiah?
Looks like Obama has gotten his footing after an unsteady start.
Real inspirational speech so far…not really
Who are we fighting now?
if i was a criminal, right now is a perfect time.
where is the closest bank & highway…
; )
SAS
“Who are we fighting now?”
white, blue eyed, al Qaeda, the ones hiding under the coffee table & in the garage.
SAS
sas says:
January 20, 2009 at 12:18 pm
if i was a criminal, right now is a perfect time.
———————————–
I think most of the criminals in D.C. are up there on stage with Obama. At least the police can keep track of them all for the next hour or so.
Zzzzzzz……
His speech sounds good. But I think it’s too general.
SaS I am in the Jury waiting at the courthouse with about 150 other people, and I just burst out laughing like a lunatic, hopefully they won’t beat me with rubber hoses for interrupting the coronation on the TV.
It is official: The WH Website has changed.
TUE, JANUARY 20, 12:01 PM EST
Change has come to WhiteHouse.gov
The first post on WhiteHouse.gov.
READ THIS POST
——————————————————————————–
TUE, JANUARY 20, 12:01 PM EST
Honoring Dr. King’s Legacy and Serving America
The President, Vice President, and their families attend service events in Washington on Martin Luther King Day, one day before Inauguration.
READ THIS POST
——————————————————————————–
TUE, JANUARY 20, 12:01 PM EST
The Whistle Stop Tour
Following the same route that Abraham Lincoln rode 150 years ago, President Barack Obama, First Lady Michelle Obama, Vice President Joe Biden, and Dr. Jill Biden made their way to the inauguration on a whistle stop train tour that wove its way from Philadelphia through Delaware and Maryland on its way to Washington.
todays market is a true test on whether o is a real messiah. if it closes positive, it is very likely o is the one.
All I needed to hear was this.
Make sure the government helps you find a job…make sure the government helps you retire.
We are screwed.
call to arms?
Well, I’m ready. Are you?
Who is this? What is this?
Shore Guy says:
January 20, 2009 at 11:32 am
You or someone else can correct me on the exact figure but my recollection is that the lower 50% of taxpayers pays 3% of the taxes.
When the top 5% owns more assets than the bottom 50% in this country, then of course they will pay most of the taxes.
like I said, my bowl movement felt a lot better than this…
SAS
#190. SC says:
January 20, 2009 at 12:31 pm
Shore Guy says:
January 20, 2009 at 11:32 am
When the top 5% owns more assets than the bottom 50% in this country, then of course they will pay most of the taxes.
—————————————
SC, like usual you fail to see the big picture. All those rich people are the ones who are giving us all jobs. They are the ones hiring for business. If you tax them to death they won’t be hiring and expanding business.
Mainly tourists and margin clerks out there, I went and watched it in front of NYSE for around ten minutes but then left early for KFC as I wanted to beat the rush.
C Bob says:
January 20, 2009 at 12:15 pm
“fools are cheering in front of NYSE right now at the giant screen tv.”
John,
Are they watching CNBC and short STT or long SKF?
change and hope says:
January 20, 2009 at 12:26 pm
call to arms?
Well, I’m ready. Are you?
Katie Couric, minutes after Obama’s speech.
[166] spam,
I think you need to update yourself on the rules for deductibility of travel and entertainment expenses, and the definition of gross income. Much of what you describe is taxable.
Now, its time for my inauguration post.
enough of the show to make you feel good and let me tell you how it really is.
there is no govt, not as you know it.
what we have is a budgetary mechanism and a executive branch that is controlled & run by a combination of defense contractors on one end, and on the other end are the large, big banks.
If Omama gives out an order and to have it followed by govt officials, the orders depend on corporate contractors & large banks to carry out that order…..or….maybe not carry it out.
and they are dependent on financial markets to simplify ownership.
therefore, there is no information sovereignty & there is no financial sovereignty, w/out the 2… there is no govt.
now, go wave your “Made in China” flag.
i have a real world to live in…
cheerio : )
SAS
I love this debate about poor folks versus rich folks. As someone who was in the bottom 1% of earners for many many years where a toothbrush was a christmas president and heat and going to the doctor was a luxury item and is now in the top 1% of earners for now anyhow I can tell you they are often the same folk. Many people are poor cause they lack the mental skils or physical skills necessary to earn more. But most middle class or poor folk are that way cause they are lazy, stubborn or want to do what they want to do. The people who grew up poor we picked the college degree that earns the most, picked the job that pays the most as a career and pursued graduate degrees, certifications and blue chip companies and harder and harder jobs, sales, travel long hours etc. for fear of being poor again. My three brother in laws never had that experience and took easy jobs and not got a masters or any certifications or even worked for name brand companies. They are in dead end 90K a year jobs and pushing 50 years of age. Maybe if there parents were richer and provided better guidance they would have done better, or maybe if they were poorer and had the drive to never go back to going to bed hungry with socks and two sweaters on they would have done better. The middle class childhood is a curse and breeds multigenterational blue collar workers.
#196 – sas – what we have is a budgetary mechanism and a executive branch that is controlled & run by a combination of defense contractors on one end, and on the other end are the large, big banks.
It has been this way my entire adult life.
[129] Vic,
Post hoc, ergo propter hoc? I don’t base it on that; it’s more complex. I postulated that some (read, some, not all) employers would lay off more aggressively in this downturn because of the possiblity that reducing head count in the future would be harder, therefore it made sense to get numbers down now while it was (a) easier, (b) cheaper, or (c) both.
This is a rational response to the prospect of tougher regulation and higher costs for future layoffs. If I was told that the price of gas would go up next week, I would fill the tank this week. By your logic, you would not fill the tank because you didn’t need the gas yet. I submit that some people don’t think that way.
There are other variables at work, notably business downturn. But it is proven that making it harder to fire/lay off people actually depresses hiring, and this supports the inference suggested by many that some layoffs would be accelerated in borderline cases. It is not an inferential leap to suggest that promising to make something harder tomorrow makes it more likely that it will be done today.
I can’t find the link – but I read the S.Korea will no longer buy US Treasury Notes.
Korea probably holds a very small fraction of our notes. What impact can we expect of this? What if others follow suit..
Nom (199) –
So, according to you, we are basically seeing a time shift in layoffs. It obviously leads to the conclusion that business downturn is the major cause for this to happen.
If you do not foresee business deteriorating, you would not fire people just because it is going to be harder to do that in future. Especially, considering the fact that it is much more costlier to hire/retrain a new group.
Ultimately, somebody needs to consume the goods which these companies are producing. If people do not have jobs, who is left for consumption?
I guess, if your thesis is correct, we should see unemployment numbers drop now, correct? We will find out soon enough.
[201] vic,
Precisely. It is a timing shift, and one that employers may be more likely to make if they feel that ready talent will be available IF the market does pick up.
Naturally, many have seen business deteriorate. Hard not to. But even some healthy businesses may, for strategic reasons unique to them, lay off more than they might otherwise, simply to position themselves. It could be a business where unions are attempting to enter, or one where the employer knows it can get people back cheaper in the future (which you doubt, but I do not accept as an article of faith). You seem to believe that there is one standard set of inputs here, which is why an employer decision that doesn’t mesh with your orthodoxy makes no sense (and in a centrally planned world, it would make no sense, and people also wouldn’t ever need people like me to deal with unorthodox events).
Finally, you assume I believe that frontloading layoffs will simply accelerate hiring as well. I am not familiar with any economic theory that so postulates. In fact, the opposite is true; if the reason that employers might accelerate layoffs comes to pass, then it is more unlikely that hiring will increase. See, e.g., http://www.csbsju.edu/clemens/lecture/ClemensLect04.pdf, at page 10.
“It has been this way my entire adult life”
yup, mine too & it gets worse as the years go on. More consolidation
so where is the “change”?
there will be no change, only change we got was the paint job.
everything else, people are just fooling themselves. and people would rather be told a lie and play the Wii guitar hero & shop at Slavemart and watch the foosball, then deal with the truth (or reality).
Carry on :)
SAS
[200] rentlord
Higher rates on treasuries.
[200] rentlord
Higher rates on treasuries.
and there is no Sovereignty.
any case, back to RE, and the bubble economics (along with bubble mentality).
:P
SAS
(ps. i don’t exist, nor does that EZ pass lane, cause i believe its not there)
Now we are heading in the right direction. Good thinks to come.
Yamada Says Stocks May Keep Falling, Signs of Bottom ‘Scant’
Email | Print | A A A
By Cordell Eddings
Jan. 20 (Bloomberg) — The Dow Jones Industrial Average may fall below its 2002-2003 lows amid the deteriorating economy, said technical analyst Louise Yamada.
Yamada, of Louise Yamada Technical Research Advisors LLC, said investors using borrowed money helped many stocks and commodities climb to records in recent years and there is a “very low probability” of those highs being regained anytime soon. Technical analysts such as Yamada use past price movements to make market predictions.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aBNCZwtza.IU&refer=home
re: #200 Rentlord – The Caribbean “trading” desks are picking up the slack.
Check here they have doubled their purchases of US Treasuries, notice from May 2008 to Nov. 2008 the Caribbean banking centers more than doubled their purchases of treasury securities.
http://www.treas.gov/tic/mfh.txt
ABC News:
What Recession? The $170 Million Inauguration
http://abcnews.go.com/Business/Inauguration/story?id=6665946&page=1
And then there is the party bill.
“We have a budget of roughly $45 million, maybe a little bit more,” said Linda Douglass, spokeswoman for the inaugural committee.
That’s more than the $42.3 million in private funds spent by President Bush’s committee in 2005 or the $33 million spent for Bill Clinton’s first inaugural in 1993.
But c’mon, this is totally different. Just ask Oprah!
“The $170 Million Inauguration”
Sounds like an Enron directors’ party, and Enron never had to pay $30,000 to protect the entire government aparatus.
Woa. More missing words. Lets try again:
“The $170 Million Inauguration”
Sounds like an Enron directors’ party, and Enron never had to pay 30,000 troops to protect the entire government aparatus.
#203 – there will be no change, only change we got was the paint job.
Largely. At least they are not assuming I’m a goober anymore, this carnie speaks pretty.
messiah
Yeah, this doesn’t sound terribly childish.
WOW ING CUT RATES AGAIN! 5 year cd is 2.5%.
Term Annual
% Yield Effective
Date
6 Month 1.75% 01/20/2009
9 Month 2.00% 01/20/2009
12 Month 2.50% 01/20/2009
18 Month 2.50% 01/20/2009
24 Month 2.50% 01/20/2009
30 Month 2.50% 01/20/2009
36 Month 2.50% 01/20/2009
48 Month 2.50% 01/20/2009
60 Month 2.50% 01/20/2009
how long before helicopter ben tries this???
Plans To Allow Secret Printing By The BOE.
The Government is set to throw out the 165-year old law that obliges the Bank to publish a weekly account of its balance sheet – a move that will allow it theoretically to embark covertly on so-called quantitative easing. The Banking Bill, which is currently passing through Parliament, abolishes a key section of the law laid down by Robert Peel’s Government in 1844 which originally granted the Bank the sole right to print UK money.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/4214232/Reform-plan-raises-fears-of-Bank-secrecy.html
Are we talking about our new president?
toshiro_mifune says:
January 20, 2009 at 1:53 pm
#203 – there will be no change, only change we got was the paint job.
Largely. At least they are not assuming I’m a goober anymore, this carnie speaks pretty.
From the Star Ledger:
Corzine expects N.J.’s share of federal stimulus money to be $4 billion
Gov. Jon Corzine said today the Garden State could receive as much as $4 billion in federal stimulus money over two years to help pay for education and health care, a drop of $2 billion from the amount Corzine said he expected earlier this month.
Appearing on CNBC’s “Squakbox,” Corzine called the federal stimulus package being advanced in the House “quite substantial.” Corzine says the money won’t be a blank check.
orzine said Jan. 9 that the state could see as much as $6 billion in federal stimulus aid if the distribution of the money was based on population. New Jersey is home to about 3 percent of the nation’s residents, he said.
Corzine delayed his annual budget address to the Legislature so he could get a better idea of how much federal help to expect.
The governor said today he hopes to avoid raising taxes even though the New Jersey Constitution bars the state from running in the red.
no rally? i guess paulson hasn’t hand over passcode for ppt trading account yet.
From Bloomberg:
Greenwich Home Prices Decline on Wall Street Cutbacks
Greenwich, Connecticut’s median home price dropped 7 percent last year and the number of houses sold plunged by more than a third as cutbacks in the financial industry spurred declines in residential real estate.
The median home price in America’s hedge-fund capital dropped to $1.95 million from $2.1 million in 2007, and the number of single-family houses sold fell to 460 from 726 a year earlier, according to property broker Prudential Connecticut Realty. Former Citigroup Inc. Chairman Sanford Weill is among the financiers with homes in Greenwich.
“We are directly affected by the financial world,” said John W.M. Cooke, the Prudential broker who tracks the data. “And that’s suffering. So that was the biggest factor in our house sales last year.”
The declines came as Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. filed for bankruptcy, Merrill Lynch & Co. was forced to sell itself, and Congress authorized a $700 billion bailout of the nation’s financial system. Greenwich lies about 30 miles (48 kilometers) northeast of Manhattan and relies on Wall Street as its primary economic driver.
New York City’s job losses may total 243,000 by March 31, the city’s Independent Budget Office said earlier this month.
The top-end of the Greenwich market showed the biggest drop in transactions, Prudential said. Sales of houses priced at more than $5 million plunged by more than half, with 53 trading hands, down from 113 in 2007.
And it will be spent on open bid contracts
This aid, whatever its final amount, will only delude the politicians in the statehouse Trenton and other states into beliveving that they can put off taking actions to address fundamental problems. It is a hair of the dog that bit us.
Hey someone in Tijuana just reported their gold 63 impala seat covers missing, Michelle where did you get that dress?
“i guess paulson hasn’t hand over passcode for ppt trading account yet”
– Hasn’t the passcode been changed to “yeswecan2009” ?
“no rally? i guess paulson hasn’t hand over passcode for ppt trading account yet.”
Passcode? Short.
Wouldn’t Paulson be handing it over to Geithner?
Bush opened his mouth, market tanked, safe to say he had nothing to do with the PPT (if it even exists).
Hope Geithner dumps Cash & Carry.
snip– from msnbc– “Unfazed by his unpopularity, Bush smiled and waved throughout the day’s activities. He blew a kiss out the window of his limousine as he left the White House with Obama.” snip
maybe he was telling everyone to “kiss off”
sl
Citi flirting with $2.99 a share.
BAC under $6.
We’re heading for a bank holiday sometime soon. I’d imagine sooner rather than later.
dow is approaching 8000 mark. maybe that is the point o and geither pull the trigger.
“maybe that is the point o and geither pull the trigger.”
bi,
The trigger was pulled well over a year ago.
Preventing the Greatest Heist in History
There’s currently an idea to fix the financial system that’s getting quite a bit of traction: an RTC-type program whereby the government would buy $1 trillion of troubled assets from struggling U.S. banks, with the goal of restoring them to health so they can begin lending again, leading to an economic recovery.
The problem with this idea (let’s call it “New RTC”) is that either the government will pay market prices for the toxic assets – in which case, it will simply accelerate the collapse of our financial system – or pay above-market prices, in which case taxpayers will likely suffer big losses.
There is another option, however, which involves debt holders taking a share of the losses. If steps are not taken to ensure that this happens, the greatest heist in history will have occurred: at least $1 trillion will be transferred from taxpayers to debt holders of failed financial institutions. This must not be allowed to happen.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/115502-preventing-the-greatest-heist-in-history?source=wildcard
I would not count on Geithner getting confirmed. Watch Grassley’s questioning and whether others pick up on his sharp questioning and concerns. If they do, all bets are off.
comrade nom deplume says:
January 20, 2009 at 9:12 am
3. Disposable butane lighters
4. Aerosolized products (deodorant, spray paint, etc.)
8. Clothing, esp. children’s (but not baby/toddler) clothing.
any reason to stock up on these?
What was Geithner doing at the helm of the NY Fed when Wall Street went crazy with derivatives and securitization?
What did Geithner do when Wall Street fell apart? Bail out Bear and AIG.
Sounds like Geithner was Paulson’s bail out man in NY.
And he is appointed to run the Treasury?
This tells me we should expect more Wall Street bailouts, lots more bailouts.
2-1, Geithner goes down.
John, do you REALLY think we’re not going to see inflation?
#236 – Who replaces him?
Is the tax issue too hot or is he sacrificed as part of a larger/deeper policy decision?
HEHEHEH 233
this has been discussed numerous times on this blog, but do you or anyone else really believe that the US public is willing or capable of taking on any more debt? If the public cannot take on debt then the current financial model is dead anyway…. hence any solution except for a purging of debt and reconstruction of an american production based economy is guaranteed to fail!
There’s currently an idea to fix the financial system that’s getting quite a bit of traction: an RTC-type program whereby the government would buy $1 trillion of troubled assets from struggling U.S. banks, with the goal of restoring them to health so they can begin lending again, leading to an economic recovery.
The problem with this idea (let’s call it “New RTC”) is that either the government will pay market prices for the toxic assets – in which case, it will simply accelerate the collapse of our financial system – or pay above-market prices, in which case taxpayers will likely suffer big losses.
Re 232, that is lunitic talk. Equity investors are gamblers by nature and owners of the company. Bondholders have no stake in company and only lent money secured by assets.
Someone who walks into a casino and bets 10K on roulette and losses should not have the same rights as someone who lent the casino 10K by buying a senior bond. Once you wreck bond holder confidence no firm can raise funds. Bottom line BAC could trade at two bucks and still be in business, while if it lost the ability to attract depositors or people to buy its bonds it would be out of business overnight. The big question now is what about pref shareholders, they are ahead of common shareholders but their yields are approaching 25% on Citigroup as opposed to only 7% on Citigroup bonds. That is where the real bleeding is happening. Plus bonds mature, some of those pref stock is to infinity until called and they don’t have the money to call them, no way can they keep paying out like that.
bi says:
January 20, 2009 at 12:26 pm
todays market is a true test on whether o is a real messiah. if it closes positive, it is very likely o is the one.
nothing like laughing at the resident as*clowns on board.
hey, i thought you said that when the first day of the new year showed gains in the market?
somebody get bi a clue. please?
Long term. Not short term. Remember RTC in 1991/1992 did not cause inflation. Plus there is opportunity cost. If the inflation folk are right and inflation picks up lets say in five years, well if you kept 100k in a 1% money market for 5 years you would have 105K, if you got a few long term bonds at 10% interest you would have 150K in five years, money would have to inflate 50% overnight for you to break even.
yikes says:
January 20, 2009 at 2:41 pm
John, do you REALLY think we’re not going to see inflation?
What a grim link…
http://www.layoffdaily.com/
[234] yikes,
In the recent past (or not so recent in some cases), there have been local efforts to ban lighters and spray cans. Obviously, buy what you need, not what you don’t, and if you are a user of said items (full disclosure, I use almost none of them), then put aside what you may need in case some consumer activists succeed in getting an item banned or regulated.
Children’s toys and clothing will come under a new regulatory regime, and the effect should be to lessen imports and thus make them more expensive. Use reason, of course—if you are worried about lead, don’t buy for toddlers and younger. But a 12 y/o’s jeans are not likely going in her mouth, so there is less risk.
[236]
Geithner will be confirmed. Tax issues will be raised only by GOP. GOP will cry hypocrisy after dems vote to confirm. No filibuster. Life will go on.
Don’t care about the tax issues, care about whether Geithner is the right guy for the job. Don’t understand why the GOP is raising an issue, I’d imagine this is the kind of guy who would be high up on their list. I don’t think either side has any kind of issues with his qualifications. Certainly qualified for the position.
My concern is this points towards continued bailouts.
2-1, Geithner goes down.
I would go large on this one. I see no way the GOP give Obama an out, i.e., knocking out his pick.
C saw a 2 handle.
#248 – $2.90
Will C even make it to Fri, or does the FDIC have a shutdown mid-week?
[246] grim,
Since you asked.
The GOP will raise this issue because their own picks got beat up with similar stuff.
That said, the GOP isn’t going to hammer Geithner but will raise it, and will chide the dems over the fact that foibles are apparently okay in their own picks, but weren’t in Bush’s.
Unless the stakes are particularly high, I expect the GOP will feed the dems rope on what I call the “hypocrisy” issue, which is to say that they will fight the dems on inconsistent posistions and later juxtapose Dem positions during Bush with opposite positions during O for campaign purposes.
Whether or not you like it or if it will be effective, I can’t say, only that I expect it since it is low-hanging fruit come the midterms.
[246] Grim,
I doubt anyone in that position will control whether there are continued bailouts.
7 handle on the Dow.
So much for a Hope Slope.
7 handle on the DOW, is the market open yet?
I doubt anyone in that position will control whether there are continued bailouts.
Well it certainly isn’t the President. IMHO, I have a hard time believing W played a significant role.
“SC, like usual you fail to see the big picture. All those rich people are the ones who are giving us all jobs. They are the ones hiring for business. If you tax them to death they won’t be hiring and expanding business.”
The big picture? Last time I checked, the rich just taxed the hell out of us with this humongous bailout so they can give us jobs and lend us back our own money. I think we would all be a lot better off if we let a lot of these corporations fail. Will you lose your job? Hell yes! Will you be able to work for yourself in a few years? HELL YES!
STT under 17. Not only am I glad I dumped the stock, I am glad I don’t work there anymore.
From Bloomberg:
Wall Homes, Texas Builder, Files for Bankruptcy Protection
Wall Homes Inc., the builder that constructed a north Texas home for ABC Television’s reality show “Extreme Makeover: Home Edition,” sought bankruptcy protection from creditors.
The Arlington, Texas-based company listed assets of less than $1 million and debt of less than $50 million in Chapter 11 documents filed Jan. 17 in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Dallas. Its Wall Homes Texas unit listed assets of less than $500 million and debt of less than $50 million.
From MarketWatch:
Citigroup shares fall 17%, trade under $3, at $2.91
State Street shares fall 56%, trade at $15.98
PNC shares fall 42%, trade at $21.86
Bank of America shares fall 24%, trade at $5.50
Wells Fargo shares fall 23%, trade at $14.29
“Well it certainly isn’t the President. IMHO, I have a hard time believing W played a significant role.”
No member of congress did. In fact, the receivers of the bailouts are the biggest political donors. They are simply getting a return on their investment. They even own the media (cough cough…GE..cough cough) so they can run shows on how great Barney Frank and Nancy Pelosi are and how they are helping us out.
My god, it’s sad that you can get more objective information and analysis from blogs and youtube videos than you can from Pulitzer prize winners and Nobel Laureates.
The big picture? Last time I checked, the rich just taxed the hell out of us with this humongous bailout so they can give us jobs and lend us back our own money
The rich? No. Congress did that for you.
Ladies and gents,
It’s 3:20 PM and the trading is about to begin.
Sean [#251 from yesterday’s thread]
>>Haven’t you heard or perhaps you don’t
>>peruse the balance sheets. Only
>>companies with ZERO debt will survive.
Do you work for BB&B? My apologies for using poetic license in foretelling their ultimate bankruptcy.
No, I am not a regular reader of their balance sheet and yes, I agree that zero debt will certainly help them ride out this economic storm better than some other retailers.
While I was flipping through Edgar, I noticed some other nifty points in BBY’s financials and related financial calculations like lower profit margins and lower ROI.
Don’t kid yourself, you can have zero debt and still not survive conditions like we have now. Check out CRC if you want an example, and let me know if you want all my expired coupons.
Ben,
its almost like a james bond type plot.
evil electric company secretly runs world by controlling media……
yes i know GE is much more then electric components
the good old DOW Jones is now worth 9.32 ounces of Shiny stuff.
It should be 9 by the end of the week.
carry on nothing to see here.
In fact, the receivers of the bailouts are the biggest political donors. They are simply getting a return on their investment.
Disgusting.
dow is re-testing 8k mark. if there is a bounce, it will be fierce.
bi: if you had a brain, you’d be dangerous.
JPM down %18.
Doesn’t look like anyone is being spared the sell-off.
… without the fierce bounce, there can be no reloading. So bring it.
“The rich? No. Congress did that for you.”
No doubt, but they funneled it into the pockets of the rich right away. Merril gave retention bonuses to their employees from Bank of America. Our bailout money went straight into their pockets. Bank of America is already back begging for money again. No doubt, some of that retention bonus money will be sent back to Frank, Pelosi, and company in return for another bailout, or maybe it already was. Regardless of who writes the legislation, our money is literally being laundered to the rich employees of failed companies. This is not capitalism, it’s outright fraud, and it’s one of the primary reasons that no financial rescue plan can possibly help our economy. The government doesn’t have the capability to follow the money and will only waste more in the process. This is no different than some dictator in Africa profiting off it’s natural resources and high tailing it out of the country when he’s done looting and the people are starving.
o may adreess the nation tonight on his first day in the office…
comrade nom deplume @ 3:13 pm:
Nice gap, STT looking good!
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=STT&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
Niccce.
FAZ up 38%. Long live the triple inverse casino.
how abou tthat RBS!
Hahaha, here is my day or two of service to society, I am now officially a juror on a criminal trial. I think I would be one of the last guys anyone would want judging their guilt or innocence.
Funny how we had a room of about 60 people of all different backgrounds and one by one most got up and complained they could not serve for one reason or another, and finally there were only people left for the jury were men like me.
Kettle Says: “Any solution except for a purging of debt and reconstruction of an american production based economy is guaranteed to fail!”
its an important point. im wondering what you make of the popular argument that goes something like this: ‘we dont want low paying production jobs… instead we want innovative and high skill jobs while the third world created widgets, trinkets and electronics.’??
sean, #276
Tell them you’re a freelance writer.
Then no one will want you.
They think you’re going to write about them.
Another tip: Show up in tie-dye, and when they introduce the defendant, wave.
Of course, it helps to look like a gray-haired leftover from the 1960’s.
zieba (275) –
and up another 3% in afterhours!
YES!!!!! With DJIA at 7,947 and with a 332 point fall on his first day in office that means if the markets fall that much on average in 24 trading days the DJIA will be at zero.
scribe – I want to serve, the need me to hang up the jury for a few weeks.
veto 278
the scenario you suggest only works as long as there is a substantial barrier to all of those innovative high tech jobs from going to the same place as the widget jobs.
The only way to move low paying jobs offshore and concentrate high paying jobs is globalization and then the effect is only temporary
The fallacy of global trade as it is currently marketed to americans is that it will improve their lives. it will not. not from the americans point of view. globalization will work to level the playing field. This means that while things improve for india or china; americans, the “wealthiest” population on the planet have only one way to go and that is down.
The other catch is that we get rid of those jobs by off loading the manufacturing consequences to another nation.
You either pay a higher price to have the goods made following modern pollution regulations and paying the workers a livable wage under reasonable conditions, or you treat the workers like slave labor and enforce minimal pollution regulations while producing a very cheap item.
saying that we want innovative and high skill jobs while the third world created widgets, trinkets and electronics, is the economic equivalent of saying you want to eat nothing but bigmacs, and slurpees without getting fat or sick. It might work for a while if you load up on the blood pressure meds, diet pills and all the other pills, but you will eventually pay the price, and end up fat and sick.
Besides, lets be realistic, not everyone is suited to a high tech innovative job. Every society NEEDS its mechanics, plumbers, electricians, and factory workers.
im wondering what you make of the popular argument that goes something like this: ‘we dont want low paying production jobs… instead we want innovative and high skill jobs while the third world created widgets, trinkets and electronics.’??
tosh, #230
I’m telling family members to keep a stash of cash in the house – not to assume they can hit the ATM as needed.
sean, #282
I want to serve, too, so I can free the defendant.
I know enough to know that 90% of the time, cases are settled. So when these cases go to trial, it’s because something is missing, and the defendant thinks he can beat it.
The 2 cases where I’ve been questioned – the DA’s were sweating visibly.
Under those circumstances, what fun it would be to free the defendant.
“its almost like a james bond type plot.
evil electric company secretly runs world by controlling media……
yes i know GE is much more then electric components”
God, I wish they were just an electric company. They found out that it’s more profitable in this country to be a bank. You make billions more and even if you screw up royally, you still get your money.
Regardless, if you look at the company’s roots, it was always immoral. Thomas Edison was a manipulative man who was hellbent on profiteering by peddling inferior technology. He basically funded General Electric with another evil bastard, JP Morgan. Morgan financed stuff with Tesla too, but cut off his financing when he found out that he wouldn’t profit as much off of it.
scribe [284],
Good advice.
Parade approaching the reviewing stand. Nice view of my former office building in the background.
They are having a party right now (except for my former boss, who is probably on the phone, trying to rescue C. Too bad as his office has the perfect view of 15th St and Penna. Ave.).
Scribe (284),
Good advice. You might want to add some Foreign Currency and a couple of shiny coins as well.
For what it’s worth, Nouriel Roubini just said he thinks it will take about $3.6 trillion.
Good thing the Treasury has good, sturdy presses at the Bureau of Printing and Engraving.
but Bi said that there would be no more writedowns.
BONY net down %88 yoy.
toshiro (291) –
C is only down 84.14% yoy ;)
make [289],
Shiny made a new all time high versus Sterling, close to it, Euro. There will be an explosion.
We’re going to need more “bad banks”.
Has there ever been an economic crisis in a country with a fiat currency where physical gold (in hand) became a defacto currency for day to day expenses?
hey bob –
you think the euroyen cross will hit 110?
Np worries the Fed has plenty of AAA MBS papers to totally cover these debts with, it will all be puppy dogs and rainbows by spring.
crazy [296],
It’s a freaking animal. There’s no telling where the cross will trade. One thing for certain, currencies are the best trending markets in the world. I would not bet against it.
i dont know about you, but I am pulling some extras stash of cash out before Fri.
Consider silver too.
Food stores are not immune, might want to load up.
SAS
wait a minute, food stores don’t exist.
thats a conspiracy.
i love you omama.
SAS
today is the capitulation point. every major banks are traded like they are going to apply for chapter 11 tomorrow. jpm, c, bac and wfc all went down over 20%. if you believe capitalism will still be the form in this world, most of banks will come back.
bob (298) –
totally agree.. i have position at 119.20, hoping to hit 115/114.5
its getting close to it, just can’t quite strike.
if we hit 100 on the cross though, i think, something will implode quickly
today is the capitulation point. every major banks are traded like they are going to apply for chapter 11 tomorrow. jpm, c, bac and wfc all went down over 20%. if you believe capitalism will still be the form in this world, most of these banks will come back.
“if you believe capitalism will still be the form in this world, most of banks will come back.”
bi,
Missed the memo? Capitalism has died.
omama goon squad:
“The FBI posted openings for 850 special agents and more than 2,100 professional support personnel”
http://tinyurl.com/6wfm5x
SAS
“Missed the memo? Capitalism has died”
capitalism or free markets?
SAS
crazy [302],
It may go a lot further/longer that we can imagine. Ride it.
Lets see-
gold, check
guns & ammo, check
canned food, check
Well I seem all set for the next successful administration to come in. If this one is half as successful as the last one we’re in big trouble. Mission Accomplished!
make [289],
Shiny made a new all time high versus Sterling, close to it, Euro. There will be an explosion.
Everyone and everything is at an all time high against the sterling. They’re in worst shape then the USD.
I have no idea why anyone in this world would still own the Sterling. In 8 yrs the oil in the north sea will dry up and GB will be a net oil importer.
They’re sooo screwed.
bob (307) –
agreed, im not trying to hit the lotto here, lol
if it hits 114.5, ill probably look for 112.7/111.3 seems to be the next resistance line
but 100 though, that is REALLY far down..
i have to imagine that japan will intervene at that point, they wouldn’t be able to sell anything, lol
Op-Ed: Ghost Towns, Ghost Malls
During the Gold Rush of the mid 1800s, towns sprung up in the middle of nowhere to support those looking to strike it rich. Similarly, in suburban America, thousands of malls over the last 20 years to support those delusional shoppers who thought they could spend their way to prosperity.
When the gold rush ended as abruptly as it began, the towns were abandoned. These ghost towns sat vacant for decades, slowly rotting away under the western sun. As you drive around today, you see more and more “For Lease” signs on retailers and strip malls that fell under the initial onslaught of consumer deleveraging. As the pace of retailers’ collapse accelerates in 2009, larger malls will begin to go dark. Once bustling centers of conspicuous consumption and material decadence, built upon a foundation of consumer debt, they will become ghost malls.
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/SHLD-jcp-spg-m-retail-Malls/index/a/20708
make (309) –
UK has been a time bomb waiting to happen for a long time, they are like the only island nation to be able to part of the big boys..
soon, their death will come too.
*hears death bells rings*
Watching one band pass the stand, and boy were they lousy. Totally out of step, uniforms a mess, drummers not in sync, and some band members stopped playing to wave at the stands. If I were their director, I would be hanging my head in shame.
I thought it was some inner city H.S. band where funding and practice were total luxuries. Nope.
It was the Delaware State Univ. Marching Band.
re# 313 – Comrade if it was U of Delaware, then they were most likely a few sheets to the wind, my bro went there and all I can say is they know how to par-tay.
this board serves well as a contrarian indicator. when everybody here talks how great the shinny stuff is and ridicule financial companies, i believe it is the turnning point. remember without financial institutions, the only usefulness of gold is to make jewelry.
[314] Sean,
No, it wasn’t UD. I would hope that they would not be that pathetic since all they have there is drinking and football. Mrs. Deplume and I both went to anti-UD schools, and IMHO, UD is for folks that couldn’t get into Temple.
No, this was Del. State. Said so on their sousaphone covers. From what I remember, they also party hard, and their parties end in gunfire more often.
For those who loved Grock radio (Stu?) it’s gone to shit:
http://radioinsight.com/headlines/g-rock-106.3106.5-monmouthocean-goes-chr/
hey, s_l,
When you’re done consulting with Gary, can I ask you about my back? :)
By the way, I still remember your lecture about getting moles checked. I’ve been paranoid about the big one on my heinie ever since :)
Expect to see it at the next gtg :)
re#315 bi- nothing wrong with banking. In fact at one time our banks operated just like the Bailey Building and Loan from the movie, It’s a Wonderful Life.
However the Banks then morphed into something akin to an alcohol fueled perpetual weekend in Las Vegas where the pit boss gave everybody unlimited chips.
As the former Pres GW Bush said, “Wall St got drunk” and now that he is gone we have to deal with the hangover. How long will the hangover last? Well the Vegas trip lasted about 10 years,so this hangover just like any hangover usually lasts twice as long as the party.
However the Banks then morphed into something akin to an alcohol fueled perpetual weekend in Las Vegas where the pit boss gave everybody unlimited chips.
I always thought speculative orgy summed it up well.
From the Boston Globe:
Filene’s Basement to close 11 stores
Filene’s Basement, the landmark merchant that claims to have invented the bargain, today said it is planning to close nearly one-third of its 36 stores, including one in Framingham.
The chain, famed for its annual “Running of the Brides” gown sale, has been unable to negotiate rent reductions at 11 locations and plans to shutter those stores by the end of February, according to Julie Davis, general counsel of Retail Ventures Inc., the private parent company that owns Filene’s Basement.
In addition to the Framingham location, stores to be closed include three in Maryland, two in Illinois, two in Pennsylvania, and one each in New Jersey, New York, and Virginia.
Krammer – again raging against the short ETFs like SKF, calling for the SEC Chairman to take action.
He is also calling for “show trials” to restore confidence and for Obama to make him head of financial crimes of justice committee after al he went to harvard too, where he will pick the suspects.
No more pump and dump now Krammer, so your buddies can front run, perhaps you should retire or get mercury poisoning.
Have an absolutely nasty stomach flu. Haven’t eaten since Saturday night. Am dehydrated and probably delirious.
Can’t even watch the inauguration. Same old shit, different day. These guys will commence tomorrow morning in selling us the rest of the way down the river. They are so clueless, nothing will register on them until they see 1mm-man squatter camps and people dying on the 6 PM news.
Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.
Enjoyed my wife’s hourly SRS reports today, though.
sean (322)-
Cramer. Hoo boy, that’s rich.
He should invest in a security detail. Imagine there’s a few PO’d folks out there on his account.
Clot,
Check your brokerage account.
Should make you feel a bit better.
clot…
you ok? got the report from hubby…uh. call me? cell phone?
sl
scribe,
what’s up?
sl
where’s my sucker’s rally…crap!
sl
Hard times are with us ; the country is distracted ;
very few things are marketable at a price above the cost
of production ; tens of thousands are out of employment ;
the jails, penitentiaries, workhouses and insane asylums
are full ; the gold reserve at Washington is sinking ; the
government is running at a loss with a deficit in every
department ; a huge debt hangs like an appalling cloud
over the country ; taxes have assumed the importance
of a mortgage, and 50 per cent of the public revenues
are likely to go delinquent ; hungered and half-starved
men are banding into armies and marching toward
Washington ; the cry of distress is heard on every hand ;
business is paralyzed ; commerce is at a standstill ; riots
and strikes prevail throughout the land ; schemes to
remedy our ills when put into execution are smashed
like box-cars in a railroad wreck, and Wall street looks
in vain for an excuse to account for the failure of pros-
perity to return since the repeal of the silver purchase
act….”
Coin’s Financial School, Chapter I, 1894
still looking,
In the same boat here.
s_l,
making a joke to cheer you up :)
Load up on UYG and flow with the suckers until the next quarter?
scribe 331
thanks…cuz I’m in sorry shape too….sick stomach, throat full of razorblades, cough that feels like I’ve inhaled Drano and body aches that make me feel like I’ve been rolled over by an avalanche.
ugh.
Advil ain’t working.
Tea ain’t working.
I’d start chugging whiskey but I think I’d vomit.
sl
question: where to go to find out how much $ the US has printed in the last few weeks/months?
Is this information made public?
if not, why isn’t the media inquiring about it?
and lastly, is there an easy way to tell how much money would have to be printed to adjust (devalue) what is already in circulation?
(ie – 100 trillion in circulation. 100 billion printed. significant or not?)
yikes,
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page3.pdf
1 part lemon juice
1 part Jack Daniels
2 parts honey
Mix well and sip slowly.
BC, please tell me you’re kidding.
we’ve more than doubled the $ in circulation in a span of four months?
can that possibly be right?
if so, how much longer before this starts to have an impact on our dollars?
Tomorrow is kick Timmy day in the Senate Finance committee hearing.
Good read on Citi and Timmy.
http://www.propublica.org/article/how-citigroup-unraveled-under-geithners-watch
bi says:
January 20, 2009 at 5:19 pm
today is the capitulation point. every major banks are traded like they are going to apply for chapter 11 tomorrow. jpm, c, bac and wfc all went down over 20%. if you believe capitalism will still be the form in this world, most of these banks will come back.
________________________________________
I cannot believe you just typed this. Seriously, are you for real? Most of these banks have toxic assests 20 times their market cap and you say they will come back.
Please lay off the oxycontin and xanax.
Yikes [337],
Adjusted monetary base is basically an index that measures the effects of the fed’s balance sheet thru operations; discount window, open market ops, purchases of agency debt and all other trash accepted for cash.
M1 and M2 measure $ in circulation. Oh, by the way, the most exact measure, M3, is no longer reported.
M3 is estimated here.
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data
all my problems are solved, i don’t have to pay my bills… god/omama is president.
SAS
i submit to you lord omama.
don’t worry, just do what omama says…
if he says its ok, then it is so.
when omama speaks, so it be written.
SAS
(1984 in your face)
The Onion:
Very prescient:
http://www.theonion.com/content/node/28784
Bush: ‘Our Long National Nightmare Of Peace And Prosperity Is Finally Over’
“You better believe we’re going to mix it up with somebody at some point during my administration,” said Bush, who plans a 250 percent boost in military spending. “Unlike my predecessor, I am fully committed to putting soldiers in battle situations. Otherwise, what is the point of even having a military?”
“On the economic side, Bush vowed to bring back economic stagnation by implementing substantial tax cuts, which would lead to a recession, which would necessitate a tax hike, which would lead to a drop in consumer spending, which would lead to layoffs, which would deepen the recession even further.”
SAS,
I don’t really see where Obama actually said any of things you are attributing to him. If anything, his speech was blunt and pointed towards tough times ahead.
What exactly did you want to hear from him?
“What exactly did you want to hear from him?”
i don’t listein to anyone. i’m not a sheep. I look at actions, and follow the money.
omama is a corporate creation.
will be the biggest disappointement of all time.
Mao youth bergade anyone?
your kids will narc on you, for the love of lord omama.
http://www.usaservice.org/
SAS
(ps. i don’t exist…puff)
slick talk, deeds are all the same.
a baton was passed from Bush to omama.
SAS
omama’s job is only to fool the public into thinking they got change.
ha ha ha.. lol :P
and RE always goes up, Wall St bonuses don’t you know.
SAS
“will be the biggest disappointement of all time.”
If he is, guns and gold will not save anyone.
However, I still fail to understand how electing the first black president can be an insignificant event. Before passing judgment on him, I would want to give him some time to demonstrate his policy. He has been handed the worst cards possible, and a lot of people on this blog seem ready to fail him before he has taken office.
I know that this mess is not going to resolved anytime soon. In the meantime, if we can keep food on the table for the majority of our countrymen, that would be a significant achievement for Obama. I hope that he is the best president we will ever have.
“guns and gold will not save anyone”
ha ha ha, correct only lord omama saves.
“He has been handed the worst cards possible”
he is following the master plan, all by design.
“if we can keep food on the table for the majority of our countrymen that would be a significant achievement for Obama”
lets all pray to omama next time we eat, thank you lord omama for this bread i am about to eat, you make all possible.
“I hope that he is the best president we will ever have”
when people lost it all, and have nothing to lose, they lose it all.
enjoy:)
SAS
Victorian:
You cannot convince them.
People oppose change out of fear.
And fear is a powerful set of blinders.
Yikes,
also consider that debt is being destroyed faster then the fed is printing money.
housing value losses alone run between 2 and 6 trillion depending on whose math you agree with, and thats just for 2008 housing. That doesnt include banks loses on derivatives and other instruments that were tied to housing and are currently hidden in level 3 assets and such.
the losses to date in the form of debt destruction (debt deflation / deflation)is far greater then the amount of money the fed is printing. However as soon as deflation slows watch out for inflation to skyrocket
keep it simple omama, so can all understand :)
ok, i will stop now.
just sad to see the true uprising of 1984. and i took a bullet and a bambo shoot through the foot for this?
indoctrination has won for today.
:P
SAS
What pathetic sniping.
A 100 year old black man who grew up with segregation, lynchings and people being beaten trying to exercise their right to vote gets to see a peer elected president and we can’t allow him a day to feel emotional?
It means something.
To a whole lot of people, rightly or wrongly his election has brought about a seismic shift in the way they view the world and their place in it. Many of whom never thought they could have a real place in it. How ^%$^ insecure do you have to be to take a cr@p on that?
Will they be disappointed? Maybe. Depends on what their expectations are. Depends on how the world changes in the next 30 or 40 years. Doesn’t mean they can’t have their moment. Takes a pretty pathetic individual to try to pull someone down from a moment of joy.
spam,
re SAS
is it fear or being jaded from seeing the machine work from t he inside? i am not judging one way or the other, just asking the question.
oh and if someone has a purple mommy and orange daddy which color is he?
I like the dude. Seems nice enough. Doesn’t matter which one of those clowns they put in there we’re still going down the sh*tter. I got a good chuckle when he was talking about the cynics and how we are going to continue all these social programs. You might want to check with our Asian and Gulf State landlords on that one.
“People oppose change out of fear.
And fear is a powerful set of blinders”
i assume that post wasn’t directed to me. correct?
SAS
You are incorrect.
for anyone interested
Washington, DC 20219
OCC’s Quarterly Report on Bank Trading and Derivatives Activities
Third Quarter 2008
Executive Summary
• U.S. commercial banks reported $6.0 billion of trading revenues in cash and derivative instruments in
the third quarter of 2008, compared to $1.6 billion in the second quarter of 2008 and a $2.2 billion
average over the past eight quarters.
• Net current credit exposure increased 7% from the second quarter to $435 billion, a level 73% more
than the $252 billion exposure of a year ago.
• The notional value of derivatives held by U.S. commercial banks decreased $6.3 trillion in the third
quarter, or 3%, to $175.8 trillion.
• Derivative contracts remain concentrated in interest rate products, which comprise 78% of total
derivative notional values. The notional value of credit derivative contracts increased by 4% during the
quarter to $16.1 trillion. Credit default swaps comprise 99% of credit derivatives.
http://www.occ.treas.gov/ftp/release/2008-152a.pdf
HEHE
it is nice to have someone in office who is not an international buffon…
“People oppose change out of fear.
And fear is a powerful set of blinders”
ok fair enough.
lets put it this way:
there was a reason i worked in the covert & overt world for 30+ years.
but hey, your right, i fear change.
SAS
kettle1 says:
“is it fear or being jaded from seeing the machine work from t he inside? i am not judging one way or the other, just asking the question.”
Fear is the overriding factor.
Seeing the machine’s guts certainly carries with it a great weight of knowledge, however, that is just a distractor.
You peel enough layers back, you’ll find fear.
“oh and if someone has a purple mommy and orange daddy which color is he?”
You want a serious answer or just puce?
Messiah?
I’ve never heard most Obama voters say much more than that they find him pretty pragmatic and thoughtful. A nice change from the ideology, dogma and “gut insticts” of the past 8 years.
The Messiah talk is all coming from the Limbaughs, Hannities and Drudges of the world. Seems like the Freepers can’t comprehend that anybody would vote any way other than theirs without being brainwashed.
Same with the “well of course he is silver tongued” take a positive and turn it into a negative BS playbook. Actually he isn’t half the orator Bill Clinton ever was, he waffles too much and starts trying to explain things.
But I suppose if he wasn’t a silver tongued brainwasher he wouldn’t be in the White House. Right?
Couldn’t be that he seems like a decent enough guy, who ran a winning campaign and appears to be doing the best he can with the absolutely huge pile of steaming manure he has been handed by the previous administration?
Time to grow up. These are serious times, maybe we could leave the schoolyard name calling behind?
I’m happy Omama is in charge instead of shrub.
spam,
puce will do just fine
I’m thinking of changing my handle to TARPED OUT
Wow!!! I love this Obama guy. Today was my single best market day ever.
Bi, you still see SRS at 25? That was some bounce we felt today. I think the only bounce we are bound to see is that of the payroll checks of Citi and BOA.
Trip to Smuggs was fantastic and I’m proud to say that Lil Gator can get completely down the learners slope without falling by the end of his 2nd day. If anyone else plans on teaching their 3.5 year-old to ski, I highly recommend Smuggler’s Notch.
Listened to the Obama speech on the radio driving home. Speech was very lame and not specific enough. I made the crew at the ECHO museum in Burlington laugh when Feinstein was introducing the big O. She was saying something about how today represented a lot of firsts. I said how true, she’ll be the first state to ask for a fifty billion bailout.
Boo on the WHTG format change. I think they did this once before and quickly changed back. I am hopeful this will occur once again.
I guess I’ll have to listen to Bloomberg on my way to AC until it fades completely out around LBI.
G’night ya’all me too tired to continue. I’m off work tomorrow as well so we’ll chat then.
yikes,
some more for you to chew on:
<i.Bank of America was a somewhat bigger player, holding $39.7 trillion in derivative bets, with 93.4% traded outside of any exchange.
But JPMorgan Chase was, by far, the biggest of them all, towering over the U.S. derivatives market with more than double BofA’s book of bets — $91.3 trillion worth. This meant that JPMorgan Chase controlled half of all derivatives in the U.S. banking system — a virtual monopoly that tied the firm’s finances with the fate of the U.S. economy far beyond anything ever witnessed in modern history. Meanwhile, $87.3 trillion, or 95.7% of Morgan’s derivatives, were outside the purview of any exchange.
data source is the previous PDF i linked
SAS
(ps. i don’t exist…puff)
Maybe you don’t.
Maybe you are everything you say and more.
Maybe you are an unemployed 20 year old stoner living in his mothers basement who likes spinning tales. You found an eager audience and like to hang around.
With all due respect I don’t know who you really are – all I know is the tag sas and whatever you choose to tell.
I do know that for someone who has a lot to say about not listening but using your own eyes and ears, you don’t like it when people don’t listen to you.
Yikes, I couldnt agree more. The only way out of this deflationary mess is to get credit flowing. The only way to get credit flowing seemingly is the Feds printing press. Fed prints billions/trillions of dollars eventually finding their way into the economy. Rapid and massive inflation ensues. Fed has to pull cash out of the economy as fast as it put it in to fight it ie increasing interest rates. Eventually settle in for a slow recovery as we shift back to a manufacturing economy. You and I are on the same page.
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The stimulus plan the U.S. government is currently considering is necessary to help American citizens, but it will likely not reverse the country’s economic decline, hedge fund manager and billionaire philanthropist George Soros said on Monday.
“It is not enough to turn the situation around,” Soros told the U.S. Conference of Mayors about the $850 billion proposal to increase spending and cut taxes.
The plan, which was introduced in the U.S. House of Representatives last week and will likely be passed by next month, will help state and local governments balance their budgets and preserve important social services, Soros said.
At the same time, the $700 billion financial bailout known as TARP for Troubled Assets Relief Program had been carried out in a “haphazard and capricious way” and “without proper planning,” he said.
“Unfortunately it was misused and the way it was done has poisoned the well. It has created tremendous ill will toward putting up more money,” Soros said.
For more than a year, the United States has been crippled by a recession that was triggered by a housing market downturn. Last summer, financial institutions with exposures to securities backed by bad mortgages began to buckle.
The government stepped in with the TARP to inject liquidity into struggling firms. Last week, President-elect Barack Obama requested Congress release the second half of the funds.
Soros advocated using bailout money to recapitalize banks, but said the $350 billion would not be enough. He said such a move would take more than the entire $700 billion.
The bursting housing bubble “acted like a detonator that exploded a much larger bubble,” he said.
“The economies of the world are falling off a cliff. This is a situation that is comparable to the 1930s. And once you recognize it, you have to recognize the size of the problem is much bigger,” he said.
Soros said the United States needed “radical and unorthodox policy measures” to prevent a repeat of the Great Depression of the early 20th century that include recapitalizing banks and writing down the country’s accumulated debt.
Also, he said, it should create more money to offset the collapse of credit and then rapidly pull that cash out of the system when inflation emerges. The government would have to be very nimble in the timing of such moves, he said.
“If they are successful…the deflationary pressures will be replaced by the specter of inflation and the authorities will have to drain the excess money from the economy almost as quickly as they pumped it in. Of the two operations the second one is going to be, politically, even more difficult than the first,” he said.
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The stimulus plan the U.S. government is currently considering is necessary to help American citizens, but it will likely not reverse the country’s economic decline, hedge fund manager and billionaire philanthropist George Soros said on Monday.
“It is not enough to turn the situation around,” Soros told the U.S. Conference of Mayors about the $850 billion proposal to increase spending and cut taxes.
The plan, which was introduced in the U.S. House of Representatives last week and will likely be passed by next month, will help state and local governments balance their budgets and preserve important social services, Soros said.
At the same time, the $700 billion financial bailout known as TARP for Troubled Assets Relief Program had been carried out in a “haphazard and capricious way” and “without proper planning,” he said.
“Unfortunately it was misused and the way it was done has poisoned the well. It has created tremendous ill will toward putting up more money,” Soros said.
For more than a year, the United States has been crippled by a recession that was triggered by a housing market downturn. Last summer, financial institutions with exposures to securities backed by bad mortgages began to buckle.
The government stepped in with the TARP to inject liquidity into struggling firms. Last week, President-elect Barack Obama requested Congress release the second half of the funds.
Soros advocated using bailout money to recapitalize banks, but said the $350 billion would not be enough. He said such a move would take more than the entire $700 billion.
The bursting housing bubble “acted like a detonator that exploded a much larger bubble,” he said.
“The economies of the world are falling off a cliff. This is a situation that is comparable to the 1930s. And once you recognize it, you have to recognize the size of the problem is much bigger,” he said.
Soros said the United States needed “radical and unorthodox policy measures” to prevent a repeat of the Great Depression of the early 20th century that include recapitalizing banks and writing down the country’s accumulated debt.
Also, he said, it should create more money to offset the collapse of credit and then rapidly pull that cash out of the system when inflation emerges. The government would have to be very nimble in the timing of such moves, he said.
“If they are successful…the deflationary pressures will be replaced by the specter of inflation and the authorities will have to drain the excess money from the economy almost as quickly as they pumped it in. Of the two operations the second one is going to be, politically, even more difficult than the first,” he said.
“you don’t like it when people don’t listen to you”
i could care less bloke.
believe what i say, or think i dont exist.
everyone has a choice to make.
SAS
Is Omama a better dancer or bowler?
SAS:
You can see and can have only seen the world from your eyes…
You do not see everything nor have you experienced everything from ever person’s eyes…
Just as I cannot know what you know, you cannot “know” my experiences, my upbringing, my life…
What you did for a living certainly colors who you are, but it is not who you are.
If I say “I did X” and this makes me more “special”, more “qualified” more “knowing”, then I lose an important part of being human.
WSJ
REAL ESTATE JANUARY 21, 2009
Builders Predict More Housing Pain
By JIM CARLTON
LAS VEGAS — The worst U.S. housing downturn since World War II is likely to deepen further this year, with no broad recovery until at least 2010, according to a consensus of building-industry economists.
Single-family-housing starts, which fell 40% to 617,000 in 2007, are expected to drop to about 441,000 this year — the lowest since records have been kept — according to the economic outlook of the National Association of Home Builders released Tuesday at the International Builders Show here. That would be a nearly 75% drop from the industry’s highwater mark of 1.7 million single-family starts in 2005.
Economists from Freddie Mac, the government-backed lending agency, mortgage insurer PMI Group Inc. and the Portland Cement Association trade group also predicted this year would be worse than 2008 in terms of starts and overall housing activity.
One of the big problems for the industry, economists said, is a huge overhang of unsold homes brought on in large part by extensive job losses. The inventory of new homes on the market now stands at 11.5 months, more than double the level normally required to encourage builders to begin building again, said Ed Sullivan, chief economist for the cement group.
Adding to the woes, he and other economists said, is the likelihood that foreclosures will keep rising — putting even more homes on the market — as unemployment continues to rise this year. Frank Nothaft, chief economist for Freddie Mac, predicted the U.S. unemployment rate will jump to 8.7% by the fourth quarter of 2009 from 7.2% as of December.
Economists said lending remains so tight that many consumers won’t be able to take advantage of declining housing prices and mortgage rates. “There’s not much good to say,” David Berson, PMI’s chief economist, said at a news conference with Mr. Nothaft and NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe.
The Portland Cement Association held a separate news conference Tuesday at which its chief economist sounded even more pessimistic about prospects for a recovery. “I see another full two years almost before a significant gain,” said Mr. Sullivan, who was one of the first industry economists to predict the current downturn.
Even prospects for a massive federal economic-stimulus plan failed to buoy spirits at the builders’ show. One problem with the $775 billion stimulus plan proposed by President Barack Obama, some economists said, is that it would move too slowly to help much with this year’s housing market. Some tax cuts envisioned under the plan, they said, would most likely be used by consumers to help pay down personal debt, rather than for big-ticket items such as houses.
Another issue cited by economists is that the stimulus plan, at least in its present iteration, doesn’t do enough to deal with the housing crisis. NAHB’s Mr. Crowe said the plan mainly offers ways to mitigate foreclosures, while the NAHB is lobbying to add measures such as a homebuyer tax credit and government buy-downs on interest rates.
Longer term, industry economists said, housing should rebound strongly, as it always has. Demand by the children of baby boomers is expected to fuel home sales over time, as is overall population growth.
sas-
we get it. you don’t like the guy. 50 posts later. the guy’s been president for less than a day. he’s the cause of all your problems.
what did you expect? look at the choices. even if he’s the same, you can’t fault people for wanting change.
what’s it going to look like when the guy screws up? 100 posts?
sas says:
January 20, 2009 at 10:37 pm
“you don’t like it when people don’t listen to you”
i could care less bloke.”
Really?
I made a one line comment about conspiracy theories a couple of days ago and you’ve made sarcastic “conspiracy” comments numerous times since then.
And who the h@ll am I? Some anonymous poster on a housing blog. I could be a 20 year old stoner in my mothers basement. Who cares what I think? I’m certainly not important enough to worry about.
US and UK on brink of debt disaster
The United States and the United Kingdom stand on the brink of the largest debt crisis in history. While both governments experiment with quantitative easing, bad banks to absorb non-performing loans, and state guarantees to restart bank lending, the only real way out is some combination of widespread corporate default, debt write-downs and inflation to reduce the burden of debt to more manageable levels. Everything else is window-dressing. To understand the scale of the problem, and why it leaves so few options for policymakers, which shows the growth in the real economy (measured by nominal GDP) and the financial sector (measured by total credit market instruments outstanding) since 1952.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/rssarticleshow/msid-4004567,flstry-1.cms
My shorter version:
We are all not “just window dressing” for your world/life.
We are living, breathing, loving, growing, learning, playing human beings who are living real lives in our own worlds.
If your world collides into ours for mere moments, several days or a lifetime; this still doesn’t allow you to know what living in our world is like.
And people have opionions that differ from yours because of their own life’s experiences… and maybe if you had lived their exact same life, you might now feel the same as them.
d2b…
ROFL…
See how fast that Santa Claus rally tanked? I think we will see Dow 7000 sometime in 2009. I also think our economy is in deeper sh@t than anyone even myself realizes. Just found out that the Messiah’s stimulus plan is spread out over 10 years.
Highlights of Economic Recovery Plan
Spending
Energy
$32 billion Funding for “smart electricity grid” to reduce waste
$20 billion + Renewable energy tax cuts and a tax credit for research and development on energy-related work, and a multiyear extension of renewable energy production tax credit
$6 billion Funding to weatherize modest-income homes
Science and Technology
$10 billion Science facilities
$6 billion High-speed Internet access for rural and underserved areas
Infrastructure
$32 billion Transportation projects
$31 billion Construction and repair of federal buildings and other public infrastructure
$19 billion Water projects
$10 billion Rail and mass transit projects
Education
$41 billion Grants to local school districts
$79 billion State fiscal relief to prevent cuts in state aid
$21 billion School modernization
Health Care
$39 billion Subsidies to health insurance for unemployed; providing coverage through Medicaid
$90 billion Help to states with Medicaid
$20 billion Modernization of health-information technology systems
$4 billion Preventative care
Taxes
Individuals:
$500 per worker, $1,000 per couple tax cut for two years, costing about $140 billionGreater access to the $1,000-per-child tax credit for the working poorExpansion of the earned-income tax credit to include families with three childrenA $2,500 college tuition tax creditRepeal of a requirement that a $7,500 first-time homebuyer tax credit be paid back over timeBusinesses:
An infusion of cash into money-losing companies by allowing them to claim tax credits on past profits dating back five years instead of twoBonus depreciation for businesses investing in new plants and equipmentDoubling of the amount small businesses can write off for capital investments and new equipment purchasesAllowing businesses to claim a tax credit for hiring disconnected youth and veterans
really bloke,
i don’t care what you think of me.
i don’t follow or support almost all politicans, and I say it. I have my reasons that has a 30+ year hx and has nothing to do with fear. I’m not some bed wetting ninny (thats the sticking point, believe of me what you will)
ok, maybe a little OT here, but it happens sometimes, fair enough.
anyway,
I hear RE does really well in the long run.
SAS
I can tell you that the money going to medicaid is a complete waste. If Doc’s have to survive off medicaid patients that pay $8 a consult they will be the next ones foreclosing.
Sas
You do have a valid point in that change at the top cannot make that much difference to the overall gvmt in the short term. Beyond that one point, for me, you posts in the last few weeks have lost relevancy and in some ways I wish I could tune them out.
You remind me of one of my uncles. He spent a career chasing bad guys around South America on the gvmt dime. Now in retirement, he still has his “consultancy” gigs, but spends a lot of time with his old buddies reminiscing about the old days and trying to find relevancy in a world that has moved past him. The stories with the nudge and a wink, have no interest to me and in a lot of ways come across as sad.
I can’t wait for this blog to get away from the political bickering and back to RE, the economy and strollers.
“$6 billion Funding to weatherize modest-income homes”
I could use a bit of that. I just got my Dec gas bill.
Ouch!
James.
Not sure what Medicaid pays, but I agree.
I think docs should be allowed to accept 1 day’s worth of Medicaid appts and the rest of the time get full pay clients.
Sort of like lawyers that get sruck with public defender cases, but no more than X number of cases….
PGC-
How many billion for government cheese? I miss government cheese.
#383 PGC
We’ve been paying about $330 a month for oil. Hoping only need 1 or 2 more deliviries this season.
“i don’t follow or support almost all politicans”
let me add to that.
politicans are apart of the tapeworm.
a tapeworm that destroys all.
i could care less if it destroys me, cause my time is due. but if you see it destroy others, it doesn’t rest well with me.
True, i do live with guilt. Perhaps, you may interpret it as fear? ok, fair argument.
My guilt comes as when I was younger, i helped propagate the tapeworm. Why? cause i sold myself out for the money.
so, i know too much TMI :)
to show that i am not such a bedwetter. I will stop my savior lord omama talk because: Thou shall not take the lord omama’s name in vain, and have no idols before lord omama.
:)
Cheerio
SAS
“in a world that has moved past him”
i will remember that one next time a consultant wants to hire me.
thx
SAS
#353
lisoosh says:
January 20, 2009 at 10:15 pm
What pathetic sniping….
Good post.
Hail to the Chief! It’s time to get behind him and hope that he has what it takes. Hope he’s the right man at the right time.
Disclaimer: I didn’t vote for him
Oh I am so happy the Messiah has arrived!
This is a clip of me during one of the campaign rallies.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P36x8rTb3jI
james,
i disagree. i think that there are some very good guesses as to how far this financial mess goes. purely a grues on my part and if accurate we wont be blogging about it, but try S&P300-400 and Dow 3-4K
we wont be at that level forever, but i think we will drop that low, in a general ballpark manner, then see a long slowslog similar to japan.
Japan has never seen the highs that the Nikei hit in 89. niehter has their housing.
I think we will settle back to an early 80’s financial level.
PS i got all of this from a cereal decoder ring!
i take it my critics didn’t read my post @ 196.
SAS
Ukraine Bonds Flag Default as Russia Has ‘Upper Hand’
Four years after Ukraine embraced the West with the election of President Viktor Yushchenko in the Orange Revolution, the former Soviet nation’s economy is collapsing and investors expect the country to default. Even with the International Monetary Fund’s $16.5 billion bailout, Ukraine’s finances are deteriorating as the country battles with Russia over natural gas prices and the cost of steel, its biggest export, sinks. Yields on Ukraine’s $105 billion of government and company debt are the highest of any country with dollar-denominated bonds except Ecuador, which defaulted in December. The currency, the hryvnia, weakened 38 percent in the past 12 months against the dollar. The benchmark stock index lost 85 percent in 2008, the biggest drop in the world after Iceland, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
“The market is telling us there is a high probability of a default,” said Tom Fallon, head of emerging-markets at La Francaise des Placements in Paris,
Kettle, there would have to be a catalyst to get the Dow that low no? Bank failures, Middle East war, 20% unemployment, dollar crash?
I am following mortgage backed securities and while I am no expert I see an unreasonable disconnect between the prices of the MBS’s and lending rates. The banks are not passing the savings on to the consumers plain and simple. The Fed is printing (our) cash and the banks are stashing it away. Bank reserves at a historic high and getting more. I locked in at 4.625 0 points in NJ yesterday and I am not complaining, however, 4.5% should be a real possibility for every quality debtor with equity and >740 credit .
“in a world that has moved past him”
That is my uncle, it was not directed at you.
Change is happening. Where we end up (Depression, recession, ww3 whatever), it is up to everyone to decide how they will handle it. For some, it will be to continue to look backward from where they came and to use their own life experience to try and find a meaning or a path.
There is a great scene in The Sopranos where Paulie tries to shake down the manager of a coffee chain. The manager tells him that they audit him down to the last coffee bean, if the store is short they will just fire him. IF they break the windows, corporate just send a company to replace them.
Paulie laments on how the old days are gone and you can’t make an honest living anymore. How will he survive in this new world.
insanely dumb question:
as fast as the govt is pumping $ into the system … can they yank it just as quickly?
after all these banks are solvent again, and all is well … can’t the govt – which owns some of these banks, right? – just yank some of the positive gains and remove the $ from circulation?
lisoosh, spam—thank you, thank you, thank you… I might’ve said some of the same things you did (re: sas), but on this board a handle of ‘PeaceNow’ doesn’t get much respect.
yikes,
can they just pull the cash back out????
easier said then done. they take a very big risk of re initiating financial crisis by doing so as investors and others get jumpy nor knowing where the money is going to disappear from next.
James
the catalyst? death of the american consumer and a lack of globally competitive production for the former consumers to move into. the current run up was based on exponential grow. a suicidal model.
“Change is happening”
i think we can all agree on that one.
yes, i agree that i am pessimistic.
cause like i’ve said, i’ve seen the tapeworm for 30+ years, and fed it.
The Tapeworm is made up of 3 parts or 3 economies:
1) Real- kettle & BC talk alot about this
2) Bubble-Grim & the rebubble blog talks alot about this.
3) Black- well, a less known, but just valid & important as the above 2.
ex. Narco dollars, Madoff Fraud.
For, the question of change, for me anyways, is do we kill that tapeworm? or do we conintue to feed it until it destroys the host?
host being you and me.
SAS
Yikes, Fed raising interest rates is the tool they use to pull cash out of the economy.
Sas
You post from 196 can be redefined as :
For the gvmt to do anything, all three branches have to agree.
One of the branches (congress) are especially bombarded by lobbyists as they are the initiator of all laws. The biggest lobbyists are Wall st., defense, tobacco and retail.
When all three do agree the decisions get passed down the food chain through very inefficent departments. These departments are running outsourced systems or using workflows designed by third party firms.
All the money is controlled by the Fed on behalf of the treasury. The governors of the Fed are elected by the president, but the board of the Fed is elected by the member banks and the governors.
“You post from 196 can be redefined as”:
what then happens to information sovereignty & financial sovereignty?
SAS
366. Stu
The one and only time I tried skiing I was in my mid 20s, at the top of a beginners “bump” in PA and was nearly in tears, terrified. I suck. I think I need to take a lesson with the 3.5 yr olds. They don’t impress me none, they have a really short fall, easy for them to show off ;P
According to a blogger in Argentina, gold and guns do him just fine.
#295
Old Stan,
“Has there ever been an economic crisis in a country with a fiat currency where physical gold (in hand) became a defacto currency for day to day expenses?”
The United States of America. They witnessed the collapse of their currency, the Continental. It led to them writing in the US Constitution that only gold and silver can be used as legal tender.
If you want a more modern example, Argentina. Of course, not a lot of people have it, but they are all willing to trade for it because they know it’s a great store of value.
Metro to cut 30k jobs.
“what then happens to information sovereignty & financial sovereignty?”
I think sovereignty is the wrong word to use here. The existence of the constitution (or what’s left of it), and three branches of gvmt renders any attempt at sovereignty inert.
If you substitute the word with power or control, you have a different meaning and a different discussion.
The UK is a sovereign nation, where the subjects and their parliament “serve at her majesties pleasure”
lisoosh says: “Time to grow up. These are serious times, maybe we could leave the schoolyard name calling behind?”
bairen says: “I’m happy Omama is in charge instead of shrub.”
Juvenile name-calling has been par for the course these past 8 years.
zyprexa
If you have to do it, you might as well do it right