“[N]o broad recovery until at least 2010”

From the WSJ:

Builders Predict More Housing Pain
REAL ESTATE JANUARY 21, 2009
By JIM CARLTON

The worst U.S. housing downturn since World War II is likely to deepen further this year, with no broad recovery until at least 2010, according to a consensus of building-industry economists.

Single-family-housing starts, which fell 40% to 617,000 in 2007, are expected to drop to about 441,000 this year — the lowest since records have been kept — according to the economic outlook of the National Association of Home Builders released Tuesday at the International Builders Show here. That would be a nearly 75% drop from the industry’s highwater mark of 1.7 million single-family starts in 2005.

Economists from Freddie Mac, the government-backed lending agency, mortgage insurer PMI Group Inc. and the Portland Cement Association trade group also predicted this year would be worse than 2008 in terms of starts and overall housing activity.

One of the big problems for the industry, economists said, is a huge overhang of unsold homes brought on in large part by extensive job losses. The inventory of new homes on the market now stands at 11.5 months, more than double the level normally required to encourage builders to begin building again, said Ed Sullivan, chief economist for the cement group.

Adding to the woes, he and other economists said, is the likelihood that foreclosures will keep rising — putting even more homes on the market — as unemployment continues to rise this year. Frank Nothaft, chief economist for Freddie Mac, predicted the U.S. unemployment rate will jump to 8.7% by the fourth quarter of 2009 from 7.2% as of December.

Economists said lending remains so tight that many consumers won’t be able to take advantage of declining housing prices and mortgage rates. “There’s not much good to say,” David Berson, PMI’s chief economist, said at a news conference with Mr. Nothaft and NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe.

The Portland Cement Association held a separate news conference Tuesday at which its chief economist sounded even more pessimistic about prospects for a recovery. “I see another full two years almost before a significant gain,” said Mr. Sullivan, who was one of the first industry economists to predict the current downturn.

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate, New Development. Bookmark the permalink.

194 Responses to “[N]o broad recovery until at least 2010”

  1. still_looking says:

    don’t you sleep? I though I was bad…

    sl

  2. grim says:

    From Crains:

    Queens housing market hit hard

    The credit crisis continued to wreak havoc on the residential real estate market in Queens during the fourth quarter, driving the median sale price down by 11.4% from the comparable 2007 period, to $400,000, according to a report released Wednesday by Prudential Douglas Elliman.

    It was the sixth consecutive quarter that prices have declined in the borough. The number of sales plummeted more than 45%, to 2,737 transactions, the report stated.

    “That drop is something we’re seeing in the other boroughs and across the region, and it’s primarily due to the contraction of credit,” said Jonathan Miller, chief executive of real estate consultancy Miller Samuel Inc., which prepared the report. “This has been going on for several quarters, resulting in the decline in prices.”

    The falloff in Queens was sharper than the drop reported in Brooklyn earlier this month, where the median sale price declined 7.5%. Mr. Miller said that’s likely because Queens has been the borough hit hardest by foreclosures.

  3. grim says:

    From bNet:

    Bank of America/CountryWide Claims Its Ads Were Mostly Lies

    CountryWide, the subprime mortgage lender acquired by Bank of America, has repeatedly said in ads and in Congressional testimony that it wanted to work with homeowners whose payments had gotten beyond them. But a lawsuit in New Hampshire claims those promises are false and that anyone trying to reorganize payments on a CW loan only gets the runaround. In response, CW lawyers have argued that their own ads are mostly lies — “mere commercial puffery … only Countrywide’s vague advertisements,” according to MSNBC.

  4. DL says:

    “No broad recovery at least until 2010.” Kicking the can down the road, one year at a time.

  5. Clotpoll says:

    Same old shit, new day…

    Feeling human again. Time to bust on somebody or something.

    Where’s bi?

  6. Clotpoll says:

    For your listening pleasure: Mike Morgan’s greatest hits.

    http://www.Morgan7.com/Audio3

  7. still_looking says:

    good to hear you are feeling better…

    hope you were well enough to enjoy the trading day yesterday :)

    sl

  8. still_looking says:

    re #7 ooops… I meant trading day inauguration. Of course.

    sl

  9. Clotpoll says:

    sl (7)-

    Wifey was giving me updates. Good times.

    Inauguration? I watched about 3 minutes. It was 3 minutes too much.

    Great sheeple show, though.

  10. DL says:

    Let’s get the party started.

    BERLIN (AP) – The German government forecast Wednesday that the country’s economy will shrink by 2.25 percent this year, which would easily be its worst performance since World War II as exports decline sharply amid the global downturn.
    The new forecast for Europe’s biggest economy was down drastically from the government’s previous prediction, made in mid-October, of 0.2 percent growth.

    “There is no precedent in postwar history for this economic decline that we unfortunately have to forecast,” Economy Minister Michael Glos told reporters.

    He predicted that exports—a key driver of German growth over recent years—would slump by 8.9 percent in 2009.

    http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D95RGRH80&show_article=1&catnum=0

  11. DL says:

    First it was the banks, now it’s countries that are insolvent.

    LONDON (AP) – The British pound fell to a fresh seven and a half year low against the dollar and a record low against the yen Wednesday amid mounting fears about the British banking sector and expectations the Bank of England will start pumping money into the economy within weeks.

    That fear has stoked talk that the country may see its debt rating downgraded, which would increase the cost of borrowing money.

    “Concerns regarding the banking sector persist with increasing fears of nationalization keeping the pound the underperformer,” said Hans Redeker, global head of foreign exchange research at BNP Paribas.

    http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D95RGPAG0&show_article=1&catnum=0

  12. Cindy says:

    http://market-ticker.denninger.net/

    Karl Denninger from yesterday..

    There is only one solution to the banking crisis: You must CRAM DOWN debt to equity in the banking system.

    This is clearly illustrated by the fact that using Case-Shiller’s data for home loan price declines all major national banks – Wells Fargo, Citibank, Bank of America, JP Morgan and others – are insolvent (that is bankrupt) several times over.

    We do nobody a favor when we obscure and delay..

    Kettle – kinda goes along with your PDF from yesterday…

    Clot – Me still looking for solutions.

  13. NJCoast says:

    Same circus- different tent.

  14. grim says:

    There is only one solution to the banking crisis: You must CRAM DOWN debt to equity in the banking system.

    John is going to love this one.

  15. BC Bob says:

    “Wells Fargo, Citibank, Bank of America, JP Morgan and others – are insolvent (that is bankrupt) several times over.”

    Cindy [12],

    All dead. The market cap of Exxon is larger than the bank sector(BKX). Never thought I would live to see corn prices higher than C.

    Solutions? Let them all burn. Recapitalization will only lead to Zombism.

  16. All Hype says:

    Clot:

    Here is a classic bi post from yesterday:

    bi says:
    January 20, 2009 at 5:19 pm
    today is the capitulation point. every major banks are traded like they are going to apply for chapter 11 tomorrow. jpm, c, bac and wfc all went down over 20%. if you believe capitalism will still be the form in this world, most of these banks will come back.

    I cannot believe this guy is real.

  17. BC Bob says:

    AH [16],

    He/She enjoys playing with himself/herself.

  18. Cindy says:

    http://www.tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www?post=79402

    Denninger = Genesis

    Extinguish preferred and common stock –

    “Bondholders would get 20 cents on the dollar but instead of being paid in cash as they would be in liquidation, they instead hold equity in a solid institution with the potential for capital appreciation. They can of course sell the next morning if they’d like and convert that equity to cash, putting them in exactly the same place they would have been in a chapter 7.”

    If the bondholders wish to argue that the bank is not REALLY insolvent, they’re welcome to go find a lawyer who will argue the case in court and try to block it.

    If they can find one who can stop laughing long enough to file.”

  19. Cindy says:

    http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2008/1027/030.html

    CRAMDOWN

    Also ideas from Luigi Zingales – who I often post here.

    -quickie bankruptcies-

  20. grim says:

    From the Press of Atlantic City:

    Tropicana to freeze top salaries, may lay off 117 dealers

    Tropicana Casino and Resort will freeze the pay of top-earning employees and may lay off more than 100 dealers in a series of belt-tightening measures at the troubled gaming hall.

    Employees making at least $50,000 will not receive a pay increase this year, while lower-earning workers will see their raises capped at a maximum of 2 percent, Tropicana President Mark Giannantonio said.

    Tropicana, now in the middle of contract negotiations with the United Auto Workers union, is warning that it may lay off 117 dealers in addition to the other cost-cutting moves.

  21. grim says:

    UAW? Is that a misprint? Does that make any sense at all?

  22. DISSIDENT HEHEHE says:

    Him, unions/casinos, sounds on the up and up.

  23. Clotpoll says:

    cindy (12)-

    You’ve found the solution. Problem is, it is the one thing the gubmint will never do.

    Who paid for the inauguration? Oh, yeah, right…

  24. Clotpoll says:

    If our country weren’t completely corrupt and in the thrall of Wall St and the banks, the common of all these banks would’ve been wiped out months ago and the recovery would already be underway.

    Instead, we will be treated to a depression.

  25. DISSIDENT HEHEHE says:

    Hey Clot,

    Read that Minyanville piece I posted re the “ghost malls”. Good stuff.

  26. Seneca says:

    UAW has repped casino workers since ’99.

    “What do we want? A contract! When do we want it? NOW!”

  27. gary says:

    This is all contained to subprime, correct? I mean, that’s what a couple of seasoned professionals from the NAR told me.

  28. coffee is for ... says:

    any last minute tips prior to closing?

    besides the obvious:
    – You’re dumb
    – Run away as fast as possible
    – don’t do it
    – no, really, you’re making a mistake

  29. Cindy says:

    (23) Clot

    Yeah! I knew if I just kept looking….

  30. gary says:

    And can anyone tell me if the love-fest is over with the messiah? I need a job and was expecting a government official to call me yesterday with some offers. Oh well, I guess they’ll call me today.

  31. Clotpoll says:

    HE (25)-

    Missed it. I’ve missed a lot since Saturday, as I’ve had a stomach flu that seems like ebola.

    Can you re-post the link? Sounds like an inspirational piece.

  32. grim says:

    any last minute tips prior to closing?

    I’ll offer a tip for post-closing.

    Tune out the housing market. Take up a new hobby, play some golf, go for a bike ride.

  33. grim says:

    I cannot believe this guy is real.

    I can, and believe me when I say that he’ll be here today, patting himself on the back if they are up today.

    When Bi is down, he ain’t around.

  34. Alap says:

    Bit off topic here..but I’ve been following along for a few months now. Great knowledge (and useless, but amusing banter) here!

    So I seek some guidance..I am looking to purchase (by necessity really) a condo in JC. I am between 3 buildings, 77 Hudson, Crystal Point, and the “A”.

    77 Hudson = So ridiculously overpriced (Over $950 per sq/ft) that I offered them 48% of asking, and they didn’t say no, they said to submit it in writing.

    Crystal Point = Reasonably priced (about $590 per sq/ft) on lower floors (reasonable for the area i guess)

    “A” = About $775 per sq/ft for the east facing PH is what they are asking. But building lacks the amenities of the other 2.

    So, if you guys had to buy right now, which would you buy, and what would you be looking to pay per sq/ft, knowing that prices will still probably come down 10-15% in the area this year alone.

    Thanks guys!

  35. Frank says:

    Where’s the recession?? Where’s the banking crisis?

    Hudson City Bancorp, Inc. Reports Record Annual Earnings of $445.6 Million

    Quarterly Cash Dividend Increased To $0.14 Per Share

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Hudson-City-Bancorp-Inc-prnews-14112846.html

  36. BC Bob says:

    “Missed it. I’ve missed a lot since Saturday, as I’ve had a stomach flu that seems like ebola.”

    Clot,

    Sent you some medicine via email. Hope you enjoy.

  37. grim says:

    Wonder what happened to the MBA applications release this morning, nothing from the MBA, nothing on the wires.

  38. Cindy says:

    Bear with me a minute….

    I turn 60 Saturday. In defense of SAS from yesterday may I say that we lived through some very troubled times. Leaders were being murdered and the threat of “the bomb” was part of our everyday existence. We actually believed in “change” AND it was up to us – that we could make the world a better, safer place to live. It sent me into teaching and Sas to Viet Nam.

    His skepticism is as real as your right hand.

    I can live with my disillusionment but I didn’t have people shooting at me…

    I so understand where he is coming from…

  39. BC Bob says:

    “Where’s the banking crisis?”

    Frank [35],

    Go pull up a chart, BKX. Nuff said.

  40. grim says:

    Hudson City is the prototypical rainy day banker. They only lend to those who don’t need it.

    They did increase loan loss provisions from $2m to $9m.

  41. Clotpoll says:

    alap (34)-

    Why, again, do you perceive the need to lose thousands of dollars?

  42. John says:

    New York Community Bankcorp is also like Hudson City. They are such squares that anyone above VP is forbidden from driving foreign cars to work. Driving a foreign car by an excecutive would send the wrong signal to shareholders. Plus even crazier only the CEO is allowed to drive a caddie, the second in charge drive buicks and the third in charge drive chevys. Now that is a true blue american company.

  43. Clotpoll says:

    grim (40)-

    Here’s my gun-to-the-head bank pick. Looks like they announced the quarter this AM and beat the number, too:

    http://finance.google.com/finance?client=ob&q=NASDAQ:NTRS

  44. BC Bob says:

    Frank,

    After BKX, pull up XLF. Come to think of it, you were buying this when WB was buying. Come on up for the rising.

  45. Alap says:

    Clotpoll (41)-

    The property is actually for my GF. She is starting Med School at UMDNJ (Newark) in August. Her parents refuse to let her live in Newark, for obvious reasons, and they want her to be in a “safe” enviornment. They also don’t want to throw money away on rent, esp. since they have enough cash for a sizable DP, and great credit. They feel in this market they can get a place at a great deal, that in a few years hopefully should at least break even for them. Since she will be in med school, they will own the place for a minimum of 4 years.

    So thats the background behind it. Place doesn’t need to be purchased til July/August, by then 77 Hudson will have completed the lower levels for move-in, and I think be much more desperate then they already are. (This guy calls at least once a week asking for an offer)

  46. Frank says:

    #45,
    Bot FAS yesterday, been buying UYG and others last year and made a boat load of $. What a year.

  47. grim says:

    They feel in this market they can get a place at a great deal, that in a few years hopefully should at least break even for them. Since she will be in med school, they will own the place for a minimum of 4 years.

    I strongly suggest that this assumption is flawed.

  48. John says:

    Cindy, have you ever really seen anything? I mean there is a big difference from opening a newspaper and reading about bad things happening and being there. Nowdays I sit in surburbia or my office and read about terrible things, but in the early 1970’s in the bronx I recall the joy of opening up my three deadbolts for my 8 block walk to school and seeing heroin addicts passed out in the halway and every piece of brass stripped from the hallway with urine and vomit to boot, my neighbors dad being stabbed to death on the way to his car in the morning for his newspaper. Life is still cheap in certain neighborhoods, subprime, DJIA 7K and unemployment rising in 2009 doesn’t mean much to a 8 year old in Bed Stuy this morning just hoping to get home from school alive. I also recall back in the 1980s I did a christmas party at a day care center in bed stuy, crazy the place had bullet proof glass and you could see bullets wedged in there, around 9 pm when party was wrapping up you could hear the crackle of gunfired every few minutes, I am a big guy who grew up in the bronx and I was very scared walking out to the bus. I could only imagine what does 3-7 year old boys and girls we gave gifts to that day grew up to be.

  49. BC Bob says:

    “They also don’t want to throw money away on rent”

    I wonder how many are saying, I wish I didn’t throw money away on a dp?

  50. Alap says:

    grim (48)

    I agree, its not a safe assumption. But they have the $$ and time to hold out. I think when 77 and Crystal are complete, the amount of empty condos in JC will be ridiculous. Wouldn’t even be surprised if one of them switches over to rental before the year is over.

  51. DISSIDENT HEHEHE says:

    This gave me a chuckle. My brother and his boyfriend went down to the inauguration. Good guys, love em, but they are a couple of those people to whom the messiah and his party can do no wrong.

    In any event they send a text saying how they had a great time, were really moved, but end it saying they are “sending get well thoughts to Senator Kennedy”. I immediately replied “save a few for Mary Jo”.

    Seriously, Ted Kennedy is EVERYTHING that is wrong with the US government. I don’t normally wish people ill but that guy deserves anything he gets.

  52. NJGator says:

    Can someone with GSMLS please send me old listing info for 215 Walnut in Montclair?

    I am particularly interested in the 2005 and 2006 listings and pics (if still available).

    The data in the Monmouth Co tax db still lists this as a 2 FAM, but the current listing reads more like a 1 FAM. I am trying to determine when it was converted (or if it was) to see if I can use this as a comp in this year’s tax appeal.

    Last sale was in 06 for 650k. Currently listed short at $469k.

    Thanks.

  53. Alap says:

    (52)

    Wait til Caroline becomes Senator for no other reason then her last name is Kennedy.

  54. kettle1 says:

    CIndy,

    Re: cramsdowns

    will not happen until its to late for that to help anything. Any such move would be catastrophic to current power structures. Thats like the parasite suggesting the host kill it so that the host feels better. not going to happen.

    secondly, such a move would rightfully make people very wary of banks and banking “services”. That would be the death of the US service economy. Once again this is going to happen no matter what but TPTB will fight tooth and nail to stop it, instead of just ripping the bandaid off quickly and getting it over with.

    cram down is a solution, but one that will not be done, as it would destroy massive amounts of wealth that is based entirely on the debts that would crammed down. It would also mean a huge pull back in global finance. there would still be some global finance, but most banks and institutions would no longer be willing to risk international exposure on any real level after such an event
    ————————————

    Grim:

    I forget where i read it, but i read that Hudson City may have substantial exposure to high risk commercial loans. i guess we will see how they fare as part of this second wave now starting….

  55. John says:

    I heard John Reed and Sandy Weil is suing the new president and head of the fed. It seems they have copyright and patents already on the creation of a “bad bank”.

  56. kettle1 says:

    HEHE Clot Nom

    “ghost malls”

    maybe we have a new idea for a compound? we wold have enough room for an indoor rifle range, indoor gardens, etc, its would like our own little Biosphere

  57. John says:

    How is that different from Cuomo getting it cause his last name is Cuomo?

    Alap says:
    January 21, 2009 at 8:47 am
    (52)

    Wait til Caroline becomes Senator for no other reason then her last name is Kennedy.

  58. Cindy says:

    (49) John

    Cindy, have you ever really seen anything?

    Never said I did John – said Sas did…

  59. John says:

    kettle1 says:
    OMG where will the valley girls now hang out?

    January 21, 2009 at 8:56 am
    HEHE Clot Nom

    “ghost malls”

    maybe we have a new idea for a compound? we wold have enough room for an indoor rifle range, indoor gardens, etc, its would like our own little Biosphere

  60. Clotpoll says:

    He (42)-

    Thanks for the link. Made my day.

  61. comrade nom deplume says:

    [57] Kettle,

    But where’s the access to recreation? (unless we buy Xanadu, then we get the indoor ski slope)

  62. comrade nom deplume says:

    Tax tip of the day:

    The energy conservation tax credit is back. So spend money on insulation like its 2006.

    Also, in the new stim bill, homeowners would see this tax credit extended through 2010. The value of the credits would rise from 10 percent of the cost of the investment to 30 percent, up to $1,500 total.

    Booyah!

  63. comrade nom deplume says:

    [60] John,

    Your house. Same as always.

  64. Clotpoll says:

    alap (46)-

    I’m a Realtor, and everything you just mentioned there are reasons NOT to buy.

    “Great deals”? If you know how low is low enough to offer in that area, please contact me. I have some other propositions I’d like to run by you.

  65. comrade nom deplume says:

    [58] John,

    It’s not. And Kennedy will be named senator. I’d bank on it.

  66. comrade nom deplume says:

    [57] kettle,

    Though indoor ranges are a good idea. There are indoor bow hunting ranges and indoor laser tag/paintball ranges. May be a business opp. in buying a dead mall and turning it into an entertainment complex, if you can get it cheap enough.

  67. kettle1 says:

    62 nom

    sent you some e-mail last night…..

    On Xanadu:

    PERFECT!!! With the vantage points from the roof you have clear lines of fire for miles!!!

    you could also use the circular roadways in a regular mall as your own little mini-cart racing track!!!!

  68. Barbara says:

    49. John
    I lived in Philly for a few years in the late 80s, height of the crack epi in that city (still plenty of crack now, though). I recall seeing people with opened wounds freebasing on Girard Street in the middle of a sunny afternoon. Oh, and 911 is a joke in your town. I called it several times. No response. I’m pretty sure I saw a dead guy too that people were walking over but I was too scared to go over and confirm that.
    So much more to report from Philly (I’d never live there again) but you get the point.
    My point? Boomers aren’t the only ones that have lived through sh*t. Some of the board blowhards need to get a grip.

  69. PGC says:

    #38 Cindy

    One small point here is that at the end of the 60’s there was the cry for change. Moving into the 70’s your generation got the changed it asked for. While the 70’s may not have been change to the better it was change none the less.

    Would it have been fair, if your parents generation stopped the change from happening. Would it have been better to have made the 70’s resemble the 50’s. I think at that point your parents would have short changed you.

    Today the cry for change can be heard by the next generation. While the boomers can offer sage advice, based on experience, they have to stand aside. The next generation to have the same opportunity and the right to shape the future as your generation enjoyed.

    Hope you have a great birthday planned.

  70. John says:

    I will bank on Cuomo will be the next gov if Kennedy will be the next senator. I don’t like the sound of Kennedy;s voice, her wrinkes or her creepy husband, other than that she is ok.

    comrade nom deplume says:
    January 21, 2009 at 9:07 am
    [58] John,

    It’s not. And Kennedy will be named senator. I’d bank on it.

  71. grim says:

    From CNBC:

    Irish Property Tycoon Found Dead

    Irish property tycoon Patrick Rocca was found dead in a suspected suicide Monday, according to several published reports.

    Rocca, 42, was heavily involved in the Irish property market through his company Accorp Properties, according to the Wall Street Journal.

    Irish property prices have suffered a severe slump over recent months, following aggressive rises in preceding years, which were tied to the booming of the “Celtic tiger economy.”

    Rocca shot himself, according to a report on London newspaper The Times’ Web site. The suicide was prompted by the prospect of financial ruin, the same report indicated through quotes of people close to Rocca.

  72. comrade nom deplume says:

    More tax “news” (the regular readers of this board already know this, so it isn’t really news).

    [BNA Daily Tax Report]

    “One thing is certain—states are going to be looking anywhere they can for revenue. That means that when it comes to state taxes, everything is on the table, predicted Joseph Crosby, chief operating officer for the Council On State Taxation (COST), which represents some 600 multistate corporations.

    “Legislators are going to be casting about for lots of different solutions to their budget problems—from taxes and fees to leasing toll roads—everything you can think of to generate revenue,” said Crosby, who is also senior director of policy for COST.

    The search is on, Crosby quipped, for the “magic tax”—that “ever-elusive revenue source that nobody minds paying.” And after looking high and low, he predicted, states will give up the search and resort to tried and true methods of closing shortfalls—they will cut spending and raise revenues—resorting to tax increases, fee increases, rollbacks of tax breaks, and other measures.

    To the extent that they can, Crosby predicted, states will push their revenue problems downward, onto county and municipal governments, either by cutting direct aid to localities or cutting back on programs to provide tax relief to homeowners.”

  73. Clotpoll says:

    Kennedy, Cuomo???

    This is like the chat board at Access Hollywood.

  74. John says:

    Babs, you were an obeserver, I would have never dropped a dime and called 50 when I was in the Bronx, no ratting was the rule. People dead in the gutter sometimes belong there. Funny quick story, my sister was friends with a mobbed up girl who lived in Todt hill in SI right by Paul Castalones “white house”, anyhow she was around 18 when she went over for the day. Some creep expossed himself to a girl in the neighborhood, anyhow they wacked him and shoved him in the sewer drain but his legs were sticking out. My sister and her friend walked by it once or twice and it was there all day on that nice suburban street. Now that is how it is done. Too bad Paul got wacked at sparks by John Gotti, big Paul ran a tight ship.

    Barbara says:
    January 21, 2009 at 9:11 am
    49. John
    I lived in Philly for a few years in the late 80s, height of the crack epi in that city (still plenty of crack now, though). I recall seeing people with opened wounds freebasing on Girard Street in the middle of a sunny afternoon. Oh, and 911 is a joke in your town. I called it several times. No response. I’m pretty sure I saw a dead guy too that people were walking over but I was too scared to go over and confirm that.
    So much more to report from Philly (I’d never live there again) but you get the point.
    My point? Boomers aren’t the only ones that have lived through sh*t. Some of the board blowhards need to get a grip.

  75. Clotpoll says:

    (76)-

    I like these John posts better than his bond/bailout rants.

  76. Alap says:

    (65) Clotpoll

    I wish I knew when/what the bottom will be.

    If you have any insight, let me know.

    So the general consensus seems to be not to buy in the area at all? I thought if you could get something (with an east view) for under $500sq/ft, you’d be in alright shape.

    I looked at the tax records for “A”, and only 1 person in the building got a place under $500, unit 8H @ $493 sq/ft about 1 year ago. Units in the 30th floor+ were in the 775-800+ range.

  77. comrade nom deplume says:

    [69] ket.

    Racing??? Cool!

  78. Barbara says:

    76.
    no Johnny, I wasn’t an observer, I LIVED in the the neighborhood and was directly affected daily. I’m not going to get into a “whose more badass” contest with you. Its a waste of time. Mafia stories? Dime a dozen.

  79. Barbara says:

    who’s even

  80. kettle1 says:

    NOM,

    i do think that in some cases dead malls could represent a business opportunity. but not so much along the consumer spending angle

  81. grim says:

    Xanadu would make a great state prison. Too bad torture is illegal, I wouldn’t mind seeing felons sentenced to pushing boulders up the ski slope for life (eternity?).

  82. sean says:

    Ohhh! More stories about the Bronx.
    When I was nineteen during the crack epidemic in the 80s I was car jacked at gunpoint, robbed and then and kicked out of the car in the 42nd precinct in the Bronx. Not a place you want to be on a Hot summer Saturday night, I felt like I was reenacting scenes from the The Running Man, and I ran as fast as I could to get the hell out of there.

  83. still_looking says:

    “I have some other propositions I’d like to run by you.”

    ….like, oh….say…. a bridge maybe?

    sl

  84. kettle1 says:

    mafia stories?????

    a friend of mine in highschool had her father go to prison for 20+ when he refused to rat out the mob (obviously his employer). He took the jail time and kept his mouth shut.

    Well whenever this girl or her mom needed anything, a new fridge, some school clothes, a new car, a vacation, “uncle” joey would show up and leave something at the house. When this girl went to college she didnt have to worry about living expenses….

    Met uncle joey once. very nice guy, but could have come out of the goodfellas script

  85. Cindy says:

    (71) PGC – I offer no “sage” advice. I was led down a garden path and bit hook, line and sinker. The boomers have managed to make a mess of everything. I’m embarrassed to be a boomer.

    I only asked that you understand – at the time – we really thought we could exact positive change by our actions. It is now quite obvious that wasn’t true. I have no problem stepping aside. Anyone can do a better job of running things than we did.

    But, as you lump us all together…know that I entered education thinking I was needed there. Just like the folks that went into the Peace Corps and off to Viet Nam. We weren’t all greedy bankers and politicians.

  86. Clotpoll says:

    alap (78)-

    Much like many of our august financial institutions these days, I can offer no visibility. I don’t even think the bottom is in sight, though.

  87. grim says:

    From DealBreaker:

    Layoffs Watch ’09: BAC

    The canning campaign begun yesterday at Bank of Amerillwide a couple weeks back proceeds at a pace, with the firm set to cut around 4,000 employees from the capital markets biz (likely tomorrow but possibly beginning as early as today.)

  88. Clotpoll says:

    grim (90)-

    Wake me up when they decide to fire Lewis, the biggest sucker/clown of all.

  89. Galgon says:

    Got notice of layoffs today at my company. This was a small first round of cuts. Probably only 1% of employees in the country. Most of the cuts will be in nj from what I hear. Workers will be shown the door this week. Luckily I am safe for now

    We were not on the nj WARN list. Can they legally let people in nj go without being on the WARN list first?

  90. still_looking says:

    sean 85

    reminds me of the year of my internship in the reportedly good section of the Bronx, the Norwood part. By Montefiore Hospital.

    I had just started. July. Early in the morning at the hospital someone brings up “alternate side of the street parking.”

    Me? I’m from Jersey.. never heard of it.

    Figure I’ll walk the 4 blocks and check my car to see if I need to move it. This is by the reservoir oval–now converted into a park.

    I get to the opening where there’s a small tunnel. I’m in a white lab coat (like all interns.) Just another 1/4 mile to my car.

    Some crazed god-knows-what comes running out of the tunnel after me, yelling at me to get back here… (I was running by then.) Made it to the car, drove back to the hospital and never walked there again.

    Not once. 4 blocks away. Even paid the $80/mo parking deck fee.

    Fast forward…a year later. Told them they’d see me back in the Bronx when they dragged my dead body over the GW bridge.

    Never looked back.

    sl

  91. Cindy says:

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/115589-socal-home-prices-plunge-even-lower?source=email

    (89) Clot – You once told me to watch SoCal..

    SoCal home prices plunge even further…

  92. All Hype says:

    John:

    What a BS’er. He has a story for everything, has been everywhere and done everything.

    Just another guy in his late forties trying to live his life like he was 25 years younger.

  93. Secondary Market says:

    @70

    i would hardly consider girard ave reflective to philadelphia, even now in it’s gentrified condition.

    Barbara says:
    January 21, 2009 at 9:11 am

    I lived in Philly for a few years in the late 80s, height of the crack epi in that city (still plenty of crack now, though). I recall seeing people with opened wounds freebasing on Girard Street in the middle of a sunny afternoon. Oh, and 911 is a joke in your town. I called it several times. No response. I’m pretty sure I saw a dead guy too that people were walking over but I was too scared to go over and confirm that.
    So much more to report from Philly (I’d never live there again) but you get the point.
    My point? Boomers aren’t the only ones that have lived through sh*t. Some of the board blowhards need to get a grip.

  94. John says:

    Babs, come on now, my best memories involved “Bombing” the 4 train with my tag what if you lived in my neighborhood you would have spoilt my fun, those ten foot high letters down write them selves. First you gotta waste a can of white for the background and them another two cans for my tag. Last thing I need is someone calling the cops

    Barbara says:
    January 21, 2009 at 9:22 am
    76.
    no Johnny, I wasn’t an observer, I LIVED in the the neighborhood and was directly affected daily. I’m not going to get into a “whose more badass” contest with you. Its a waste of time. Mafia stories? Dime a dozen.

  95. make money says:

    Bair said during a CNBC interview. “But I think it needs to be emphasized and re-emphasized these banks are solvent, they’re well-capitalized overwhelmingly, and that really is what creditors and depositors seem to be focusing on right now.”

    Translation: All banks are insolvent.

  96. Barbara says:

    96.
    Lemme guess, you’re thinking of investing south of Christine? I remember in the 80s, they were hyping the Norther Liberties and south of Queens Village all the way back then. I can tell you, not much has changed since.

  97. Barbara says:

    John,
    *yawns broadly*
    I called the cops when a gang of 20 ran down my street waving baseball bats, going after a kid in his early teens. No regrets.

  98. comrade nom deplume says:

    [96]

    Girard Ave. gentrified????

    I lived near Fitler Square and still had to flash the iron a few times. I could not see myself near Girard even if it isn’t Filthadelphia anymore (at least not in CC).

    The hoods knew me too. Once, when I stopped someone from stealing my neighbor’s license plate, he said “I know you. You still have that big gun?”

  99. Secondary Market says:

    @99 not quite. but i know old city was a dump in the 80’s too. its where i live now and although they are way over priced on avg. 1bdrooms are going for 500k and it’s a great/safe neighborhood.
    northern liberties does have a long way to go but there has been significant improvement since 2003.
    south of christian or graduate hospital will never be the “up and coming area” its been touted to be for the last 10 years.

  100. Barbara says:

    John,
    any stories about the early rap scene? Did you get on a seminal break dancing troop? Signed with SugarHill only to have it fall through when your got your kicks blown from a local’s china white induced vomiting seisure on the subway?
    Do tell.

  101. BC Bob says:

    “Translation: All banks are insolvent.”

    make,

    Wrong. They are dead.

  102. PGC says:

    #88 Cindy

    And the people who today, call for change are not all bankers and politiians either.

    My point to Sas is, that you cannot dismiss today’s call to change, just because the change your own generation asked for did not materialize in the form you wanted.

    “we really thought we could exact positive change by our actions” equates today, to some peoples hope that the country has found a leader who can lead them in a new direction and better times. It is fine to disagree with them, but it is not fair to allow them to discover the reality (good or bad) on their own.

    Losing JFK, MLK, RFK may have redefined the dream, but you still got to make the choice to live your dream and make the choice to teach, volunteer.

    Sas maintains that there is no such thing as change so why even ask for it.
    That to me is a very rearward view and I would rather look forward to the future than live in the past.

  103. comrade nom deplume says:

    [99]

    South of QV? I would NOT invest in SoSo except in QV and even then, not below Monroe. The latest area to come up was Grad Hospital but they were asking too much (though it helped me when I sold my place north of South).

    Give it time, then no one will want to buy below Lombard, then Pine. And I would avoid Art Museum and Fairmount. Just too close to the hood.

  104. comrade nom deplume says:

    [103] barbara

    Stop feeding the trolls

  105. syncmaster says:

    Galgon #92,

    NJ WARN only applied to businesses that have been in operation for 3+ years and with 100+ employees. Furthermore, they only need to WARN of you a “mass” layoff, which I believe is defined as 500 or more employees or 1/3rd of the workforce (but no less than 50)…

  106. Secondary Market says:

    @101 really? i love that neighborhood. but i guess you get some of the graduate hospital scum floating in.
    i must live in a bubble; outside of the homeless begging for change, i have no city horror stories.

  107. sean says:

    re: #93 still_looking – Lots of people were robbed, raped and murdered in the parks around the Reservoir and the Van Courtland Park area. I know that Hospital well been a patient there myself more than once, that was my neighborhood growing up. I once picked my cousin up from Montefiore after he was shot point blank with a .22 though his forearm and one right between the eyes. Doc said he was the luckiest man alive as his thick Irish skull kept the bullet from penetrating. We shipped him back off to Ireland, and he has since moved on to New Zealand and has never looked back. Place still is a war zone, and nobody I know goes anywhere near the place anymore, really nobody left to visit anyway.

  108. comrade nom deplume says:

    [92] galgon,

    Probably. Not an expert but there are WARN act exceptions.

  109. make money says:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/20/business/economy/20builders.html?_r=2&ref=business

    Lenders foreclose on builders who are actually making their minimum pmnts.

    Scary stuff.

  110. comrade nom deplume says:

    [109] 2ndary

    Yeah, the hoods would come up from Point Breeze to “shop” for wallets, purses, etc. I missed a few muggings. Once, when I first moved there, I saw a “local” trying to get into my car. Then he had the chutzpa to panhandle the street knocking on doors. I told him to “stay away from my f*&ing car” and he acted all stupid so I told him I saw him thru the window and pointed to my car. With my .38 special. He got the point.

    Another time, there were some “locals” hanging out behind a retaining wall midday. As I passed, I told them to move along. One started toward me with a ‘make me’ look on his face. I pulled back my jacket. Them moved along.

  111. Cindy says:

    (88) PGC
    Oh wait – better clear this up – I was a greedy banker from 73 to 82 – then I went back and renewed my 1971 teaching credential (could not find a permanent teaching job in 1971 – subbed for 2 years then gave up) – went to work for UCB….Somehow the banks seemed different then…

    It was nice to be able to work at the bank two days a week when the kids were small. In 82 with both kids in school – I went back to teaching…

    I must have been trying to forget 73′-82′. Married those years – screwed up economy in Oregon…

    Obviously – nothing like what you all dealt with…

  112. stan says:

    i will take John and his gulliver’s travels stories all day everyday.

    I find myself chuckling at times while people stare at me like a madman on the train, which is a nice diversion from the state of things

  113. John says:

    Barbara says:
    January 21, 2009 at 9:50 am
    Actually, I remember the early rappers in the bronx back in the day, but when I went to St. Johns one of the members of Run DMC went to my school and we booked them to DJ a keg party. They were huge big time studio G’s, Holliswoods Queens is a rich town and they pretend they are from Hollis the poor side of town. LL Cool J is another studio G, I like rappers who are OG like Public Enemy or 2LiveCrew or NWA. I also did go see Rock Master Scott, Beastie Boys, Public Enemy, House of Pain, Snoop back in the day. Rock Master was crazy, taste great less filling, took friends mashed up cordoba and double parked with 2 blonde hos we knew and damm that was wild, the together forever tour was scarier but that was cooler, I been to see Run DMC like 5 times as I usually got comped. The Beasties I got sprayed with Bud and got to curse at the girls in the cage. BTW Snoop is another studio G, hung out with him in the hamptons. NO OG would be at a bar in Southampton.

    John,
    any stories about the early rap scene? Did you get on a seminal break dancing troop? Signed with SugarHill only to have it fall through when your got your kicks blown from a local’s china white induced vomiting seisure on the subway?
    Do tell.

  114. kettle1 says:

    make BC

    these banks are solvent, they’re well-capitalized overwhelmingly, and that really is what creditors and depositors seem to be focusing on right now

    Is that similar to when a prostitute tells you how hot you are?

  115. PGC says:

    I like this, we now have a third party metric for change.

    http://www.slate.com/id/2209273/

  116. scribe says:

    For BC,

    From the Telegraph, on the slide in the British pound:

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/ambrose_evans-pritchard/blog/2009/01/20/seriously_alarmed

  117. Barbara says:

    I used to work with Doug E Fresh’s GF. That’s all I got. Slick Rick is on my Ipod.

  118. scribe says:

    nom, #113

    If I ever need a combination lawyer and bodyguard, I’ll calling you.

  119. Secondary Market says:

    #113 Nom,

    When did you sell ’05? Did you carry heat all the time?

  120. scribe says:

    From Calculated Risk, on the annual convention of the home builders trade association:

    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/01/national-association-of-home-builders.html

    ends with “grim and grimmer.” :)

  121. Cindy says:

    (105) PGC

    “Sas maintains that there is no such thing as change so why even ask for it. That is a very rearward view and I would rather look forward to the future than live in the past.”

    I am looking forward and attempting to be a problem solver even though I have been advised that is futile…

    I am asking for change….

    I only hope the current change-masters and visionaries are treated better than ours were…

  122. sas says:

    aye, morning all.

    FYI:

    I have noticed ALOT of highway patrol writings tkts as of late on the turnpike btw GWB & Newark, and also on 78 near exits 48-52 (the one that leads to GSP, i think thats the exit.

    if you drive that area, might want to slow it down, or smokey will be on your tail.

    yeah, i know i got a little out of hand with my posts last night, perhaps some would say over the top. i will relax a little.
    Just keep in mind when i rant, i have seen alot & been through alot. ex. just being in southeast asia, russia, & haiti in 1990 is already more than most…

    i will try my best not to go off on tangents.
    i’ll save the tangents for the next GTG.

    SAS
    *god damn i’m getting soft as time goes on :P

  123. Cindy says:

    Off to school – oops -Late even…

  124. lisoosh says:

    Love Johns stories. Todays are crackers.

  125. BC Bob says:

    Scribe [119],

    Thanks. The whole EU is on the verge of an implosion.

  126. sas says:

    interesting story out of the Denver wire:
    wonder how this story relates to Grim’s “ebay effect” POV ?

    “High-end homes up for auction”
    http://tinyurl.com/88masc

  127. grim says:

    BC,

    Yen?

  128. HEHEHE says:

    Retrenchment: The End of the Multinational Bank

    Spurred on by politics, regulators across the globe are going to de-multinationalize their major banks. Some — like the regulators in the UK and US — will do it by force, requiring the sale of foreign investments and operations as a precondition to further government investment. Others, like the Swiss, will do it be re-jiggering their capital requirements to prejudice domestic activities over foreign ones.

    http://www.minyanville.com/articles/GDP-banks-RBS-British-retrenchment/index/a/20726

  129. lisoosh says:

    Cindy says:

    “I turn 60 Saturday. In defense of SAS from yesterday may I say that we lived through some very troubled times. Leaders were being murdered and the threat of “the bomb” was part of our everyday existence. We actually believed in “change” AND it was up to us – that we could make the world a better, safer place to live. It sent me into teaching and Sas to Viet Nam.

    His skepticism is as real as your right hand.

    I can live with my disillusionment but I didn’t have people shooting”

    Cindy – Happy Birthday.

    I don’t mind skepticism and cynicism. In fact, I was born in 1968. My first memories are of my father railing at Nixon. Money was tight due to stagflation, I remember recessions with whole towns falling apart. The eighties, my youth, were all about “greed is good” boomers and big shoulder pads. The moment I entered my prime, it was all about the “hope of the millenials”.

    I have no heroes. I’m not obsessed with change, or hope or visions of sugar plums. I think things are going to get worse, Obama is well meaning and will do the best he can, but he is just thrown into the tide like the rest of us.

    Cynics are entitled to their opinions. Disagree with me if I express an opinion that someone doesn’t like.

    Just don’t lecture me on what I think, or what I believe. Nobody is inside my head but me.

  130. sas says:

    “California may delay tax refunds
    State’s cash shortfall could slow payments to businesses, disabled residents”
    http://tinyurl.com/8jrfmt

  131. grim says:

    This is stimulus? Glad to hear Alpine is getting stimulus cash.

    From NorthJersey.com:

    Alpine plans to use stimulus monies for DPW expansion

    The borough is considering expanding the Department of Public Works building and a salt storage facility.

    But it’s hoping to receive federal money from President Obama’s planned stimulus package to pay for the estimated $550,000 project.

    A DPW building expansion that would add about 3,000 square feet to the 5,000-square-foot structure on Hilltop Lane will give the department more room to store equipment indoors, said Gary Vander Veer, the borough engineer. A roof extension is included in the plans, he said.

  132. Victorian says:

    Tall Paul on deck!

  133. lisoosh says:

    I’ve lived in war zones. Glad to say I never saw anything. Anytime something blew up, I was somewhere else. Somebody went on a shooting rampage – I didn’t go to work that day.

    My husband was in special forces in a major army. Much of his service was spent sitting on a border shooting at cows. Sometimes the reality is a lot more boring that people want to imagine.
    His childhood was partly spent in bomb shelters. He has memories of seeing body parts fly past his car in a major street. His mother just missed being shot at a couple of times, once because she ducked into a store to buy some gum.

    My brother in law watched 3 of his best friends machine gunned down in front of his eyes. He never mentions it.

    I’m lucky. I’ve never seen anything. I’m grateful for that. People I know have seen too much. They are grateful to be alive and always looking ahead.

    The ones who’ve seen the most are almost never the talkers.

  134. scribe says:

    Vic, #135, is this what you’re talking about?

    From the WSJ, live blogging the confirmation hearings:

    10:06 am: Former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker enters the hearing room, followed moments later by Geithner. Volcker and Sen. Charles Schumer (D., N.Y.) will introduce Geithner.

    10:08: Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus, in his opening statement, calls Geithner’s tax errors “innocent mistakes” that were “sufficiently corrected,” and says Geithner will be “meticulous on these points” in the future. He criticizes the initial rollout of the TARP proposal to Congress (under former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson) and moves on to the Treasury secretary’s role in restoring confidence, fighting tax evasion and dealing with foreign governments.

    10:14: Ranking Member Chuck Grassley discusses concerns about the past year’s bailouts and the government’s management of bad assets. Grassley calls Geithner a “tax gap participant” and says he has offered “many excuses” that he should have known and he would have paid if his accountant had warned him. Grassley asks how much Geithner’s tax troubles “reflect on his judgment as a decision maker.”

    10:22: Schumer praises Geithner for early calls for action in dealing with financial crisis, runs through the economic troubles of the day and even cites a headline in The Onion: Recession-Plagued Nation Demands New Bubble To Invest In.

  135. lisoosh says:

    grim says:
    January 21, 2009 at 10:28 am
    “This is stimulus? Glad to hear Alpine is getting stimulus cash.”

    It’s like the towns in Wyoming swimming in Homeland Security money.

  136. Barbara says:

    136.
    “The ones who’ve seen the most are almost never the talkers.”

    yep. And on the Internets, you can be anyone you want to be. Buyer beware.

  137. BC Bob says:

    JB [130],

    FXY. Sorry, Mrs Wantanabe.

  138. Victorian says:

    BC –

    Carry trade Hedge fund blew up?

  139. HEHEHE says:

    ““This is stimulus? Glad to hear Alpine is getting stimulus cash.”

    I am sure that little job is going out for open bidding:)

  140. Mr. Obvious says:

    Date: 21 January 2009

    To: Economy Minister Michael Glos

    Subject: “There is no precedent in postwar history for this economic decline that we unfortunately have to forecast”

    Dude, we know. We are screwed.

    cc
    Everyone

  141. John says:

    Back in the day teacher was a nice way to say “draft dodger”.

  142. sas says:

    “The ones who’ve seen the most are almost never the talkers”

    depends on what you do,
    for some situations, you better talk, or tomorrow will never come :P

  143. comrade nom deplume says:

    [122] 2ndary

    Sold in April, 07. Was off peak, but since we got relo assistance, we actually netted more than if we sold at peak with a broker. Cleared about 60K over my cutoff point.

    I did not pack all the time there. Only sporadically. Further, I never felt the need, but then, its like insurance. You have it but you hope to never need it.

    I often walked the dog late at night, and sometimes had to go into sketchier hoods. Having old Sam Colt or Mr. Makarov along meant I didn’t have to think too much about where I walked, and if I tailed a hoodlum stalking my neighborhood, I wasn’t concerned that they would get attitudinal (only one guy got attitudinal, a drunk white guy, but he never saw the iron–he just knew I had it and dared me to use it–you don’t take that dare, and you don’t ever point since the anti-gun Philly cops are trained to lie like a rug in order seize your hoglegs).

  144. comrade nom deplume says:

    [144] John,

    Somehow, I doubt Cindy was dodging the draft in the 60’s.

  145. Wag says:

    lisoosh – I was born in 68 as well. Hope you can make it to the next GTG. You are one of the most level headed people I have ever ‘met’.

  146. Barbara says:

    so to all of you banking system experts, the old standby of “get your money out of the bigs, find a solvent local” is now out due to these commerical loans re: Hudson?
    All my cash is in BOA and Citi. Was thinking about a local. Now what?

  147. Nicholas says:

    “The Baby Boomers have had their moment in power. The most spoilt generation in history has handled affairs with its characteristic hedonism. The results are coming in.”

    Quoteable quote.

  148. Barbara says:

    Nicholas,
    I’m not so sure they are the most spoiled, boomer spawn scare me.

  149. Clotpoll says:

    Cindy (124)-

    “I only hope the current change-masters and visionaries are treated better than ours were…”

    Doubtful. I actually don’t think any exist, but if they did, they’d be assassinated, post-haste.

  150. chicagofinance says:

    Anyone intersted in this stuff, please let me know. There may be a modest attendance cost.

    Powering The Coast Energy and Job Creation Opportunities For New Jersey

    General Membership Meeting and Conference
    Friday, February 20, 2009, Sheraton Eatontown

    Luncheon Sponsor
    Commercial Flooring Concepts
    Seminar Sponsors

    Advanced Solar Products
    EPS Corp
    New Jersey Natural Gas

    Presented by MODC’s Energy & Environment Committee and the Jersey Shore Partnership Foundation

    Much is being discussed regarding the latest in new energy technologies, and proposed Federal stimulus is sure to boost local opportunities. However, do you know what really is, or could be, happening in the Monmouth/Ocean area? Program speakers, representing a wide variety of energy resources, will educate and inform business owners and residents about alternative energy options coming on-line in the near future. During question and answer, participants will cover funding opportunities for businesses and local governments, impacts and benefits to the coastline, as well as development opportunities and constraints.

    8:30 a.m. Registration & Continental Breakfast/Exhibitor
    9:00 a.m. Energy Conference: Alternative Energy Sources – Opportunities and Challenges for Coastal NJ

    Jeanne Herb,JDEP
    Michael Egenton, NJ Chamber of Commerce
    J. Roger Whelan, Liberty Natural Gas
    Dr. Ronald Maslo, P.E., NJ Clean Energy Program
    Doug Pfeister, BlueWater Wind
    Richard S. Dovey, AtlanticCounty Utilities Authority
    Roger Bason, Natural Currents Energy Services
    Lyle K. Rawlings, P.E., Advanced Solar Products

    Moderator: Tony MacDonald, Urban Coast Inst.
    Moderator: Bob Kudrick, NJ Natural Gas

    11:30 a.m. Networking Reception
    12:00 p.m. Luncheon
    1:00 p.m. Guest Speaker: Chris Wissemann, President, Garden State Offshore Energy

  151. Clotpoll says:

    Hell, I think even Ron Paul will meet a questionable demise.

  152. chicagofinance says:

    grim unmod

  153. John says:

    Scary, I have no more bonds of the day, right about now only CIT, CITI and Aloca are only three investment grade bonds trading with a 8% or more yield. Just last month there were hundreds to choose from. Heck there were dozens at 11% or more. Amazing for a one month period.

  154. John says:

    Clotpoll says:
    January 21, 2009 at 11:03 am
    Change is for suckers, I am all about the Benjimans.

    Cindy (124)-

    “I only hope the current change-masters and visionaries are treated better than ours were…”

    Doubtful. I actually don’t think any exist, but if they did, they’d be assassinated, post-haste.

  155. Secondary Market says:

    BlackRock Unveils Fourth-Quarter Hit

    NEW YORK (Dow Jones) — The market turmoil claimed another victim on Wednesday, as asset manager BlackRock Inc. reported an 84% decline in its fourth-quarter profit, compared to the year-ago period.

    BlackRock (BLK) had until now avoided the worst of the financial crisis, reporting a 15% year-on-year decline in its third quarter profits. BlackRock’s shares over the past year have, along with shares of Franklin Resources Inc. ( BEN), Eaton Vance Corp. (EV) and T. Rowe Price Group (TROW), fallen the least among the major asset managers.

    But the firm’s fortunes couldn’t hold out during the bleak fourth quarter.

    BlackRock’s fourth-quarter net income fell to $53 million, or 40 cents a share, as revenue dropped 26% to $1.06 billion. On an adjusted basis, it earned 68 cents a share. Estimates from analysts surveyed by FactSet Research were for $1.26 a share.

    Shares of BlackRock were down about 4.5% in pre-market trading. The firm’s stock fell 11.7% on Tuesday.

  156. jcer says:

    Alap, as someone who lives in the area you are talking about, and has family who did development in downtown JC. i would tell you to avoid the market, it is artificially being pumped by developers and realtors, prices have not really fallen, demand is virtually non existent, downtown seems more or less sparsely populated almost as if many speculators purchased condo units, retail is hurting there as well. In a new luxury building by the river I would not pay a dime more than $400psf the sheer quantity of units coupled with rising defaults and the fact that at least half of the people living there work for the banks make this ground zero for disaster. Look at BPC or FiDi if that trades below $700psf JC is dead $350-400psf max. Personally I like it in JC but beware of it, I know you thinks it’s safe but it is not, I see a lot of gang activity, drug dealing, etc. Many people are hit over the head and robbed, crime realistically is not much better than Newark. The lightrail has given the ghetto great mobility, if you are concerned about crime avoid living to close, I suggest Hoboken or perhaps a building right on the Path. Honestly just rent for 2k per month between taxes and maintenance you will not be so far off and equity building is a long way off. I know in my case I could buy my apartment for 500K pay 10k per year in taxes and 8k per year in maintenance or pay 28k per year in rent. The debt service on 400k is way more than 10k per year on an asset valued at 300k 6 years ago, I’d lose my first hundred, then a second hundred all while covering a much bigger monthly nut. Rent vs. own in JC is way out of wack!

  157. HEHEHE says:

    I love that Doll guy from Blackrock, he’s always got that deer in the headlights look when he’s been interviewed that past few years.

  158. Nicholas says:

    Was talking with my brother-in-law last night and congratulated him on finding a renter for his second home. I asked if he was going to refinance some of his properties from option-ARMs to fixed while the rates were low.

    He said that he contacted his usual lender, a mortgage broker out of Annapolis MD. He had worked with them for many years and considers them very reliable. They do direct lending from the bank as well as broker services from a variety of sources. My brother-in-law had some very interesting things to report.

    1. The highest LTV offer that the broker had was 75 and there was only one. There were other offers but they wanted 70 LTV.

    2. When he asked about a second loan, something like an 80/20 (or in this case a 75/25 or 70/30). The broker replied that second loan market is non-existant.

    3. When he asked how credit rating affected LTV he was rebuffed. Essentially it doesn’t matter what your credit rating your not going to get a loan unless you bring 25%.

    4. He had later run into the mortgage brokers wife, whom they know socially. She mentioned that if her husband doesn’t close some loans soon that she will be looking for a job.

    This supports what I have been saying and noticing as a growing trend. FHA and VA lending has consumed the mortgage market and over the last six months has come to represent 50-60% of the loans being made in my target area. FHA and VA still allow LTVs of 95 and 100.

  159. lisoosh says:

    Wag – sweet. Not level headed. Just as freaky and panicked and “off’ as anybody else in the real world. I just come across well on “paper”.

    I think PGC is actually pretty level, I liked what he said about just keeping our heads down and doing the best we can in tough times. No muss, no fuss, no drama. Maybe we just share some British “stiff upper lip” that kind of likes being stoic in adversity.

  160. Nicholas says:

    This was the first time that I heard my brother-in-law admit that the value of his housing investments declined.

    I quote “the equity in my homes have been completely erased”.

    I have been talking to my family about housing value declines for over a year now.

  161. james says:

    #153 Thanks for sharing. I am going to try and be there.

  162. chicagofinance says:

    lisoosh says:
    January 21, 2009 at 10:27 am
    Just don’t lecture me on what I think, or what I believe. Nobody is inside my head but me.

    EXCEPT ME ;-)

  163. TB says:

    When I was a young tot in the 70’s in Inwood we would go to Vancourtlandt or Inwood Hill Park. One time a bunch of cops came in told all the parents and kids to leave then at least 100 swarmed in and started beating all the hippies and druggies. Its one of the few things I remember before we shipped off to Bergen. Also the reason i’m told we split from my old man was that he saw a foreigner change his kids diaper and toss it onto the sidewalk and move on.
    Hippy riots and police brutality didn’t do it.

  164. Mikeinwaiting says:

    chifi 165 Was that necessary. Not.

  165. make money says:

    Is Tall Paul telling the truth. That’s sooo 80’s.

    CORRECT: Volcker: Bank rescue to cost several trillion (marketwatch)

  166. lisoosh says:

    Chi – OK, that was a bit strange.

    Need to focus on work now.

  167. RentinginNJ says:

    Anyone intersted in this stuff, please let me know. There may be a modest attendance cost.

    Chi, I may be interested. Just curious, what kind of involvment do you have in energy\renewables?

  168. sas says:

    “State pension fund recovers some lost ground”
    http://tinyurl.com/9sg37p

  169. sas says:

    “Believing Pension Numbers”
    http://tinyurl.com/8q5xan

  170. sas says:

    “New Jersey needs a tax terminator”
    http://tinyurl.com/79oudl

  171. Stu says:

    I think there are a good number of level-headed persons here. Unfortunately, there are almost equally as many blockheads here as well. ;)

    The balance is what keeps things interesting. After all, who wants to here nothing but sensible responses from the few members of society who are actually politically and economically adept. It’s nice to occasionally hear from the Franks and the Bis who are more likely representative of the greater inept populace.

    Watching the news last night, almost as much time was spent reporting on the dresses worn by Michelle than on the words spoken by her husband. Until the queue on the breadline grows dramatically longer, I fear that the populace will not wise up.

    Thinking more about the election results, I agree that there will not be much in the way of change. It was nice to show the world that America is truly an amazing place where less than half a century ago, the best a black leader could expect was a bullet in the head. Today a black leader runs the show. I recall my team in India (they are mostly in their twenties) last January absolutely doubting that we would ever elect an African American for president. Unfortunately, their politically enlightened years were mostly formed by watching W ruin how America is perceived around the world. Do some travel overseas, hang out in a pub and listen to the dialogue. This is not meant as a partisan statement. Our perception has been tarnished greatly. Our willingness to elect Obama will go a long way to returning to the days where people believed our roads are paved in gold.

    Now that he is in office, I doubt much at all will be different, except that perhaps it will be easier to listen to the presidential addresses. I was so embarrassed every time W spoke. Our government is still representative of the corporations and will continue to make all of the decisions based on which lobby donates the most. This is what will continue to hold America down.

    I look forward in the coming year to the implosion of public pensions and the resulting protests. It should provide much better story lines than first lady attire.

  172. gary says:

    I’m still waiting by the phone, it hasn’t rung yet. When do I get my job and free healthcare?

  173. grim says:

    From HousingWire:

    Mortgage Job Losses Ease

    On the heels of an ailing economy have come massive job cuts in all U.S. markets in the recent months, and according to state unemployment data released Thursday, new jobless claims are still on the rise. But mortgage job losses, despite the housing market’s role in the economy’s demise, eased 25 percent in the fourth quarter, according to employment data tracked by MortgageDaily.com. Annual migration out of real estate also dropped — by more than half.

    Layoffs in the mortgage industry were 8,646 during the fourth-quarter 2008. After accounting for 925 new hirings, the net job loss was 7,721, compared to a net job loss of 10,233 in the previous quarter and 16,711 one year earlier. Fourth-quarter’s results may indicate, according to MortgageDaily.com, a bottoming-out in mortgage-related layoffs.

    Nonetheless, California took the hardest hit of the quarter, experiencing the most mortgage job losses, followed by Minnesota and Florida. As for annual mortgage job losses, California came in at number one, with 8,133 losses. Florida ranked second — although, lagging far behind California — posting 2,651 job losses. New Jersey was a close third with 1,661 mortgage job losses for the year.

  174. grim says:

    New thread coming.

  175. Nicholas says:

    I do care about your health Grim. See? That didn’t cost you anything.

    It was free.

    The job I can’t do anything about.

  176. jcer says:

    I kind of agree with SAS, although I think it is great that America elected a black president and think Obama is much smarter than W, both great things. But I cannot say that I trust him, and think his supporters are a little brainwashed. My biggest issue with him is don’t piss on me and tell me its raining. He is going on about change, populist policies, how he is so different from other politicians, and from what I can see he is exactly the same as other politicians.

  177. comrade nom deplume says:

    [169] lisoosh,

    Chifi went to an Ivy League school before UC. Correcting one’s grammar is a hallmark of an Ivy Leaguer. Deal with it as they or their parents spend a lot of money to be able to do that and we need the economic stimulus to continue.

  178. chicagofinance says:

    RentinginNJ says:
    January 21, 2009 at 11:38 am
    Anyone intersted in this stuff, please let me know. There may be a modest attendance cost.

    Chi, I may be interested. Just curious, what kind of involvment do you have in energy\renewables?

    ZERO – My firm belongs to the MODC (Monmouth Ocean Development Corp.). They run these events as an excuse to network with local people. However, this one strays into an area that appears to be of general interest and NJ focused, so I sent it out.

  179. PGC says:

    #162 Lisooh

    Thank you, your writing style is much better.

    I think most things in life (politics, economic turmiol etc ) can be summed up as “Stop whining, STFU and deal with it crybaby”.

    Opinions are like views on religion. Everyone has one, even if they say they don’t (athiests), but when you start sharing yours with others, they may not agree with what you are saying or care about what you want to say. In the worst case it will offend and turn violent.

  180. chicagofinance says:

    lisoosh says:
    January 21, 2009 at 11:35 am
    Chi – OK, that was a bit strange.
    Need to focus on work now.

    lis: I was joking. I was railing against another poster several weeks ago, and you chastised me along the lines of “…well you are not in my head / I don’t need you to tell me what to think…”

  181. grim says:

    New thread, move it up.

  182. John says:

    Actually, I don’t give opinions, I give facts. People do have different beliefs, lets say a Hindu believe if he eats a hamburger they will turn into a bug, lets say the Hisidcs believe if they don’t dress in black suits and wear a funny hat they will burn, lets say Jehovas believe if they don’t stand in the subway holding a pamplet up they will be dammed, just cause they believe in it does not make it true. Funny part is people believe in things and just because they believe in things they think it is true. Well that said I am going to go step on a bug and get a bad hindu onto his next life.

    PGC says:
    January 21, 2009 at 12:04 pm
    #162 Lisooh

    Thank you, your writing style is much better.

    I think most things in life (politics, economic turmiol etc ) can be summed up as “Stop whining, STFU and deal with it crybaby”.

    Opinions are like views on religion. Everyone has one, even if they say they don’t (athiests), but when you start sharing yours with others, they may not agree with what you are saying or care about what you want to say. In the worst case it will offend and turn violent.

  183. PGC says:

    #186 Strawman

    “Actually, I don’t give opinions, I give facts” You do put a smile on my face. In the discussion we had a while back, did we work out if you were a “Factual Xenophobe” or an “Opinionated Xenophobe”.

    “just cause they believe in it does not make it true”

    Just cause you don’t believe it, does not make it false.

  184. Qwerty says:

    Alal — “They also don’t want to throw money away on rent”

    Heheheheh.

    Apparently “negative equity” is an unfamiliar concept? In those 4 years they can find themselves well over $100,000 underwater. How’s that for “throwing money away”?

    Not to mention: HOA fees? Taxes? Utilities?

    Like sheep to the slaughter.

  185. Qwerty says:

    RE: “Our perception [overseas] has been tarnished greatly.”

    Nonsense. This is nothing new. See Reagan putting missiles in Europe, for just one example.

    The World is wrong, and critics can scoff at America while sitting comfortably in their pubs, because of the security America provides for the world. Europe couldn’t even clean up their own genocide in the 1990s, and President Clinton had to step in and unilaterally invade without UN approval.

    Also take note of rapidly-shifting demographics in European countries. In 60 years much of the Europe we know today will be diluted away to nothing. There is a deliberate invasion occurring right before their eyes, with invaders having 6-8 children compared against the 1-2 for native-born citizens. And when they finally wake up, it will be too late.

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