Sat 7 Feb 2009
Morris County Comp Killers
Categories: Comp Killer , Housing Bubble , Lowball , New Jersey Real EstateTake a deep breath, a sip of coffee, and repeat after me:
Home prices can fall.
Home prices can fall.
Home prices can fall farther than I believe possible.
Home prices can fall for longer I believe possible.
My/Your home is not different.
My/Your street is not different.
My/Your town is not different.
It is not different here.
Home prices are falling and will continue to fall.
Here are a selected group of properties that have closed in Morris over the past month or two. It might help to read about what a comp killer is. Realize that I’m not trying to say that these properties are “good deals”, many of them are not. But what they do show is that prices can, and will fall. This crosses geographic areas, price ranges, shapes and sizes.
Fairfax Terrace, Chatham Twp
Purchased: 7/27/2004
Purchase Price: $765,000
Sold: 1/13/2009
Sale Price: $731,000
4.4% under the 2004 purchase price. 4.4% isn’t a big drop, but keep in mind we’re talking about a mid-2004 purchase price here. Prices were high in 2004, but they went much higher in 2005 and 2006.
Sheepfield Farms Drive, Harding
Purchased: 12/15/2006
Purchase Price: $3,500,000
Sold: 2/4/2009
Sale Price: $3,250,000
7% under the 2006 purchase price. Not a huge drop but we are talking about serious money here. You are looking at a loss of more than $400,000 on this transaction.
Spice Bush Road, Kinnelon
Purchased: 3/1/2006
Purchase Price: $837,500
Sold: 2/6/2009
Sale Price: $667,000 (foreclosure)
Roughly 20% under the 2006 purchase price. This is pretty steep drop for a property in the Smoke Rise community. This foreclosure was taken by the lender in November of 2007.
Lorraine Road, Madison
Purchased: 9/2/2004
Purchase Price: $662,500
Sold: 1/5/2009
Sale Price: $575,000
This is another property where you’ll need to take into account the purchase date. We’re talking about 13% below a 2004 price here. This is a loss of approximately $155k over 4 and a half years of ownership. If you are buying, you’ve got to have a much longer time horizon than this.
Baumgartner Drive, Madison
Purchased: 8/31/2006
Purchase Price: $1,015,000
Sold: 2/2/2009
Sale Price: $830,000
Another big chop for upscale Madison NJ. Approximately 18% under a 2006 purchase price. While this is bad, can you imagine being the guy who bought the very similar house next door for $1,235,000 in 2006?
Walsingham Road, Mendham Twp
Purchased: 6/14/2007
Purchase Price: $1,085,000
Sold: 1/30/2009
Sale Price: $835,000
Lakewood Drive, Denville
Purchased: 7/11/2007
Purchase Price: $545,000
Sold: 1/13/2009
Sale Price: $460,000
Schoolhouse Road, Jefferson
Purchased: 1/26/2007
Purchase Price: $600,000
Sold: 1/27/2009
Sale Price: $440,000
Fairmount Ave, Morris Twp
Purchased: 4/17/2007
Purchase Price: $548,000
Sold: 1/15/2009
Sale Price: $485,000
Sun Valley Way, Morris Plains
Purchased: 9/27/2004
Purchase Price: $489,000
Sold: 1/16/2009
Sale Price: $445,000
Saunders Lane, Hackettstown/Mt. Olive
Purchased: 11/14/2003
Purchase Price: $548,000
Sold: 1/14/2009
Sale Price: $500,000
first
… and just like your $300k house wasn’t worth $600k in 2005 until you sold it and had the money in the bank, i guess your $600k house you bought in 2006 isn’t worth $450k until you bring a check to the closing.
drove to work listening to Bloomberg interview of Sen Grassley of Iowa. He was going on about how happy he was about Obama limiting executive salaries, golden parachutes and stopping stock options.
Now, granted, I’m just a citizen. I’m no 5 term senator from Iowa. But my understanding of the limits were that they excluded stock options. That they still could collect future stock options.
Looked at the transcript on Bloomberg’s website and 1) first there is a disclaimer: “this transcript may not be accurate” and then, 2) complete omission of the part about stock options.
Maybe I’m wrong — I’ll go research it but pretty sure they didn’t exclude stock options…
sl
off
“Banking executives can get extra compensation in restricted stock, but only stock that will not vest until taxpayers are repaid the loans, plus interest.”
Yeah. Right. Why do I feels skeptical about this?
sl
How do I do a comp killer search for closed sales? I was using trulia.com and the county tax records for future ones (#324 from previous thread), but where do I get the recent closed sale info?
Great news..What could go wrong?
(Note that this is not the press release from 1999 when Clinton admin. pressured Fannie Mae to do the same)
” Feb. 5 (Bloomberg) — Fannie Mae, the mortgage-finance company under U.S. government control, will loosen rules for homeowners seeking to lower their loan payments by refinancing.
Fannie Mae will drop some credit-score requirements, reduce income-documentation standards and waive the need for appraisals in some cases, according to a notice yesterday to lenders posted on the Washington-based company’s Web site. The changes apply to loans that the company owns or guarantees. ”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aTu9HA5cZgQ4&refer=home
These Morris County comp killers are all outliers. Madison, Chatham, and Harding are notorious ghettos where it is quite common to not get your first BMW or Benz until you are 25.
/off sarcasm
these arent really comp killers…..prices are still way too high in morris county….
I posted this last night #324
Future Somerset County Comp killers
156 Old Stirling Road
Warren, NJ
Sold 562,000 2/17/06
current list 479,900
current list is 83,100/ 14.7% off 2/06 sale price.
15 Dickinson Rd Basking Ridge
sld 01/06/06 780,000
current list 718,800
61,100/ 7.85% off 1/06/06 sale price
26 Almond Drive Somerset
sld 11/22/05 252,000
current list 212,000
list is 40k/ 15.9% off 11/05 sale price.
72 OSWESTRY WAY, Somerset
sld 1/25/06 255,000
current list 239,900
list is 15,100 / 5.9% off 2006 sold price.
I got the addresses of the for sale litings from trulia and then checked it vs. county tax records.
Great job on the comp killers, Grim. Thanks.
I’ll post Hunterdon some time this weekend. Currently sitting at the repair shop, power window on the Beermobile took a cr@p last night.
Damn its cold driving with the window down…
Sen Bob “scumbucket” Menendez is on the radio now defending how this bill MUST be passed to get Americans back to work
CAIBC I agree that prices are still way to high, but that doesn’t mean these are not comp killers.(FOR NOW)
This will change in time as much as the gov is trying to stop it it will revert to the mean. Take a 2 year lease on a place sit back , relax & watch the show.
I also saw a several condos/townhouses in Somerset listed for less then 2% more then the 2004/5 sold prices.
I also saw that townhouses in Basking Ridge were listing for 15% or more off 2005/6 peaks in the same development.
I see comp-killers like those and it makes me want to buy a house even less.
sl
Safe, not Basking Ridge Oh my!
these arent really comp killers…..prices are still way too high in morris county….
We can take either an objective or subjective view on pricing, but we can’t take both.
The objective view is to accept every sale price as being indicative of the market price. A transaction took place, period. That price is the market price.
Once we begin to make subjective value statements about the sale price of a property, we need to accept that every sale price may be subjective, and thus may not be indicative of the market price. But then how do we know what the real value is?
So, it seems we are in a position to either accept prices as being market prices, or we have resign ourselves to having no real data to rely on.
I will agree that affordability hasn’t significantly improved in Morris, and that prices still have a long way to fall. But what I won’t do is try to nitpick the reason behind high purchase prices (they were cheated and robbed by their realtor, stupid buyers) or the sale price (bad street, wrong color, ugly house).
Sen Scumbucket continues “all economists support increased government spending, liberal and conservative”; “I was suprised that Reagan’s former economist and all THREE of the economists (I assume they has three testify before Congress) agreed that we need more government spending”
Wow handpick THREE economists to parrot what you want them to say and you have a NATIONAL CONSENSUS!!
Dissident HEHEHe to tell the truth I haven’t read or saw many economists or talking heads from either side not going with the printing & spending plan. There are differences on how it should be done but they all have the check book out. There are a few lonely voices sounding the alarm but to no avail. This will not end well.
grim,
i guess my fear is that realtors will look at this morris county data and say ’see how much these prices have fallen’, ‘this is definitely the best time to buy’
but realistically, the 05, 06 prices were soooooo inflated that i couldnt believe anybody could get away with it….these ‘comp killer’ prices probably should have been the 05, 06 prices….
am i making any sense…..i am looking to buy in morris county because of the proximity to job location and i just cant believe these prices - ‘comp killers’ or not….
whats with morris county anyway? why are these areas still unaffordable? seems to me like the prestigous bergen county is starting to be more affordable than morris county??? from a global prespective….
these arent really comp killers…..prices are still way too high in morris county….
There seems to be a bit of misunderstanding about what a comp killer is. Rightfully so, we never really defined it and put it in a place where everyone could find it.
Understanding what a “comp killer” is first requires that you understand what a comp is, and how it is used.
When a home is priced for sale, or valued by an appraiser, similar homes, recently sold, are used to justify the asking price or valuation of a property. The properties used in this comparative analysis are, well, the “comps”. These comps are what drive current property market and appraisal valuations.
We don’t value houses based on what the ground costs, or what the sticks cost, but what other similar houses have sold for.
It’s the comps, this is the key.
So what is a comp killer?
It is the elimination of a high watermark comparable property in a valuation calculation.
Because the comp now sold for a lower price, it can no longer be used to justify a high price/valuation on a similar property.
A simplified example:
Your neighbors house sells for $500k.
Your house is similar, so you say your house is worth $500k. When you are asked how you came up with that value, you point next door.
Until today, when your neighbor’s house just sold for $400k.
Now, you can no longer use your neighbor’s house as a comp to justify the $500k price.
Should you choose to sell your house, somewhere near $400k is likely where it will sell.
Lastly, the reason I post these is to drill in the fact that home prices can fall.
It is the new mantra.
Home prices can fall.
Home prices can fall.
Home prices can fall farther than you believe possible.
Home prices can fall for longer than you believe possible.
Your home is not different.
Your street is not different.
Your town is not different.
It is not different here.
Home prices are falling and will continue to fall.
grim,
got it on the definition of ‘comps’ - another question - the tax assessment on the bottom of those listings….do they also use comps? morris county seems to have a huge difference between the assessed value and ‘asking price’ why so many different ways to value something like a house?? from the looks of is seems like no one (banks, tax assessors, appraisers, realtors) knows what the real value of these homes are?
Off to put on a pot of Maryland Blue Crab gravy. Yes it is gravy if your Sicilian. Believe it or not it is a birthday dinner request from my 11 year old daughter for her party. Hot dogs will also be served for those of less refined palates. Like 12 girls sleeping over this is going to be interesting to say the least.
In Hoboken this week 6 1 bedrooms sold in an average of 74 days for an average price of $402,333.
You call this a recession?? I call it housing boom.
http://hudson.fnismls.com/publink/default.aspx?GUID=32253a42-5436-41bc-8155-1685ded5cc62&Report=Yes
In Morris County homes are still selling for these sky high prices??
Wow, there’s no recession here, I don’t care what you say.
Talking for recruiters this week, there’s a plenty of jobs for people that want them, my friends are landing multiple job offers with sky high salaries. Where’s the recession?
frank,
as a potential buyer in morris county, i am upset that prices are still so high…i have no option but to continue to wait and see what happens….my fear is that morris county will skip the recession and head straight for the upcoming depression and in the long run, will end up hurting me.
Job Losses: Comparing Recessions
“The current contraction is far far worse than the prior downturns: 3.6 million — and counting — job losses as of yesterday is worse than the 2.7 million jobs lost in the 2001 recession, and far worse than the 1.6 million job losses in the 1990-1991 recession.”
“This is one nasty looking chart:”
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/job-losses-3-recessions.png
Frank come up to Sussex if you want price declines & days on market that will prove a recession. It is coming to you just sit back & relax it will not take to long. By the way have you seen the unemployment numbers. What planet are you on?
From the WSJ:
Bracing Ourselves
America prepares for the worst, and Republicans suddenly seem serious.
By PEGGY NOONAN
His [Obama's]serious and consequential policy mistake is that he put his prestige behind not a new way of breaking through but an old way of staying put. This marked a dreadful misreading of the moment. And now he’s digging in. His political mistake, which in retrospect we will see as huge, is that he remoralized the Republicans. He let them back in the game.
Mr. Obama has a talent for reviving his enemies. He did it with Hillary Clinton, who almost beat him after his early wins, and who was given the State Department. He has now done it with Republicans on the Hill. This is very nice of him, but not in his interests. Mr. Obama should have written the stimulus bill side by side with Republicans, picked them off, co-opted their views. Did he not understand their weakness? They had no real position from which to oppose high and wasteful spending, having backed eight years of it with nary a peep. They started the struggle over the stimulus bill at a real disadvantage. Then four things: Nancy Pelosi served up old-style pork, Mr. Obama swallowed it, Republicans shocked themselves by being serious, and then they startled themselves by being unified. But it was their seriousness that was most important: They didn’t know they were! They hadn’t been in years!
One senses in a new way the disaster that is Nancy Pelosi. She was all right as leader of the opposition in the Bush era, opposition being joyful and she being by nature chipper. She is tough, experienced, and of course only two years ago she was a breakthrough figure, the first female speaker. But her public comments are often quite mad—we’re losing 500 million jobs a month; here’s some fresh insight on Catholic doctrine—and in a crisis demanding of creativity, depth and the long view, she seems more than ever a mere ward heeler, a hack, a pol. She’s not big enough for the age, is she? She’s not up to it.
Whatever happens in the Senate, Republicans have to some degree already won. They should not revert to the triumphalism of the Bush era, when they often got giddy and thick-necked and spiked the ball. They should “act like they been there before.” They should begin to seize back the talking mantle from the president. And—most important—they must stay serious.
The national conversation on the economy is frozen, and has been for a while. Republicans say tax cuts, tax cuts, tax cuts. Democrats say spend, new programs, more money. You can’t spend enough for the Democratic base, or cut taxes enough for the Republican. But in a time when all the grown-ups of America know spending is going to bankrupt us and tax cuts without spending cuts is more of the medicine that’s killing us, the same old arguments, which sound less like arguments than compulsive tics, only add to the public sense that no one is in charge.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123388255500354969.html
New T-shirt slogans For 09′
“RELAX-Where’s the recession?”
“Got Stimulus”
and my favorite-
“Apples 5 cents”
safe - I’ll be fascinated to watch (from a safe distance) when Somerset Hills starts to implode.
sometimes times you feel like a comp,
sometimes you don’t.
Sales price $515,000 - June 2006
Asking - $491,100
… BUT…
link, if i didn’t embed that right
The house they’re selling is not the house they bought. & because it’s now pink, is it worth less or more than the place that needs all new windows, furnace & roof?
Apples to oranges in an apple orchard or the produce isle? what’s a comp & what’s a sore thumb. what’s an outlier, what a diamond in the rough. mcmansion in a cape neighborhood, etc.
2515512 - mls
Westfield NJ
OLP: 1,139,000
LP: 849,900
DOM: 277
Now 25% of this builder’s “coulda, woulda, shoulda put it on the market in 06″ price/profit just evaporated into thin air. It took 277 days to get here though, for sure. Now if this builder can show patience when he has at least 850k on the line, what about you and me? We have a rental roof over our heads, hopefully a job, and hopefully a DP. If you are looking for more of a deal than the market is giving you right now, patience is the name of the game. Clot, Grim - any guesses on how much this puppy is gonna finally sell for?
oh, just noticed in that listing “subject to bank approval”. So replace “builder” with “bank” in the above post.
I heard that projections for house prices will bottom out in late 2009 early 2010. Just wondering if you all agree or do you have your own theories to when and if.
tell that to a realtor that sent me this:
“Prices may come down a little bit more but I personally do not see it dropping drastically. The spring time is going to be here before we know it and congress is about to pass the stimulus package that will include up to $15,000. tax credit that will not have to be payed back regardless if you are a first time home buyer or not and this will bring buyers out of the woodwork. This will not bring out investors since this will be for owner occupied purchases only. With this happening the market will not be skewed as much towards a buyers market. If I could be of any assistance please do not hesitate to contact me.”
Secondary - are you listening to the realtor (aka salesperson)’s “personal opinion” or looking at the financial context & housing data presented here on pretty much a minute by minute basis? Are the fundamentals in place to support current prices?
Thanks for the input. I own a house now, but have been waiting a long time to make a move. Now with the economy in the toilet I don’t think now is the time to do anything but wait.
afe - I’ve been thinking along the same lines as you, but it seems like no matter what happens the prices have remained high. I’m trying not to lose hope but…
Yves over at nakedcapitalism has an interesting discussion of a WSJ blog; US pay disparity exceeds France’s under the last king.
Bottom?
UBS this week published an analyst opinion that NY metro prices had an additional 20 to 25 further to fall.
Zandi over at Moodys punlished a piece this week stating that they expect home prices to bottom nationally towards the end of this year.
Take both together? Area home prices will continue to fall throughout the year.
I would be skeptical of anybody who tried to predict the future. They have enough trouble getting the recent past correct!!
If someone had told you in Feb 2008 that several big name financial firms would cease to exist, that the gubmint would hand over $350B and then have trouble getting an answer as to where it went…..would you have beleived them??
Know how pending sales acts like a pipeline but the pipeline doesn’t ever 100% match it’s forecast when the actual sales come out due to cancelations, corrections of month prior & all that? … is there a way to figure out cram-downs & work-outs to actual forecloure?
O.C. has nearly 6,000 properties in foreclosure pipeline
Does NJ have a ‘pipeline’ of foreclosures or are sheriff sites the best indicator? & if that’s the equivalent to pending sales, what’s the equiv. to def. went bk?
Regarding all this quality-of-comp talk, what that crystal ball is really saying…
& for those saying the prices suck as does the quality, which is why the search is so needle in haystack frustrating, when is there, historically, a change to the just right bowl of poridge?
The only area I follow with any regularity is my old neighborhood in NYC—Tribeca—which I moved out of in ‘05. Prices went up slightly after that, but many places were already taking longer to sell. Number of listings remained very steady until this past summer, when they spiked by almost 25%. (In large part, though, this was due to new-construction condos entering the market.) Now prices are back down to the ‘05 level, and the number of listings increases every week. NYC is in for a long decline, imho.
grim (16)-
I think we’re beginning to butt up against the contingent here who will never, ever buy a house.
When their criteria for something as simple as establishing a price trend for a certain area becomes a game of whack-a-mole, you know that they’re forming the emotional foundation of an argument not to buy.
mikey (18)-
Yeah, everybody at the Beer Hall Putsch agreed with the speaker, too.
I don’t like unanimity. It reeks of national soci@lism.
furloughs in ca. how long for NJ or are we ok? what would happen if NJ’s Motor Vehicle office closed for a few days a week?
CAIBC (19)-
Your fears have been realized. Plenty of agents (hell, probably every single agent out there) is saying “look how far prices have fallen…look at those great rates…no better time to buy…buyers’ market”.
Why fear any of this if you know better? Why waste time looking at houses at all these days, if you think we’re headed significantly lower?
We’ve got eons left before this thing plays out. The porkulus could also easily trigger a sucker rally, ensuring that the final resolution may take even longer- and prices crash even harder- than any of us can possibly imagine.
More thoughts on whether the buyers’ tax credit would stimulate sales?
Is it another attempt to prop up overpriced real estate? Somwhat like TARP propping up moribund banks.
mikey (23)-
Hands off, tiger. :)
“Like 12 girls sleeping over this is going to be interesting to say the least.”
grim (16)-
I think I’ve identified one of “those people”. What’s that old saying? There’s no upside in betting on Armageddon?:
(27)-
“as a potential buyer in morris county, i am upset that prices are still so high…i have no option but to continue to wait and see what happens….my fear is that morris county will skip the recession and head straight for the upcoming depression and in the long run, will end up hurting me.”
Clot,
Oh, I agree. Although I’m not sure what really drives the mentality.
Could be a bit of the ol’ “price of everything, vale of nothing”.
Or maybe just some kind of deep rooted scepticism or fear of being cheated.
I really hope it isn’t some kind of vindicative schadenfreud where the buyer really doesn’t care about price or property, as long as they are sure the seller is financially, mentally, and socially ruined.
Value that is
More thoughts on whether the buyers’ tax credit would stimulate sales?
Methinks irrelevant. I suppose it might bump volume up marginally but it does nothing for prices.
There is a rule in economics: all benefits flow to the owners of the scarce resource. The scarce resource these days is money, i.e. the tax credit ends up in the pockets of buyers, not sellers.
scribe (30)-
Nice of Ms. Noonan to get all relevant on us again…after spending the past eight years on morning TV, sipping coffee, talking about Bush 1 and giggling with crackpots like Pat Buchanan.
She’s a little late to the party now. The rest of us figured out that Pelosi is a hack- and that no one is in charge- about two years ago.
I like that Lakewood Drive house. It actually reminds me of Biden’s place (Well, the place before the Naval Observatory).
Gator,
What are your thoughts on this?
http://www.computerworld.com/action/article.do?command=printArticleBasic&taxonomyName=Mobile+and+Wireless&articleId=9127538&taxonomyId=15
It sounds like lots more jobs — like delivery people — are going to get buggy whipped.
think (33)-
The description should read, “Pepto-Bismol nightmare”.
wish (36)-
Sorry. My crystal ball is in the shop.
“Yeah. Right. Why do I feels skeptical about this?”
Me,
Clearly one of the following applies to you:
1) You are a cynic; or,
2) You have been paying attention to the world around you.
I really hope it isn’t some kind of vindicative schadenfreud where the buyer really doesn’t care about price or property, as long as they are sure the seller is financially, mentally, and socially ruined.
A pretty rare circumstance, I would think. For me, a real estate transaction is always business, never personal. Driving a hard bargain doesn’t mean I want to see the other party ruined. In 99.9% of cases, you don’t know the other party before or after.
Tax credit?
You tell me, did the tax credit get you off your seat?
Why didn’t you take the $7500 tax credit? It was interest free money? No brainer?
Sure, the $15k tax credit is more stimulative. That isn’t the question. The question is how much more stimulative will it be? I’m not so sure it’ll help all that much.
Every few weeks another plan gets announced. And every time the reaction here is the same. Panic develops as the new plan is sure to cause another bubble.
A month passes and everyone realizes the plan failed. Whew. In comes another scheme and the cycle starts again.
mike and lishoosh,
here are a few more BR listings for you
Future Basking Ridge Comp Killers
131 Village Drive, Basking Ridge
Sold 414,000 4/20/05
Current list 379,000
35k/ 8.4% off 4/20/05 sales price
51 Jamestown Road, Basking Ridge
Sold October 17, 2005 $340,888
Current list 279,900
60,988 / 15% off 10/17/05 sales price
28 Birch Drive, Basking Ridge
Sold June 12, 2006 $960,000
Current list 850,000
110,000 / 11.4% off 6/12/06 sales price
47 Berkeley Circle, Basking Ridge
Sold July 26, 2005 $979,000
Current list 949,000
30,000/ 3.06% off 7/26/05 sales price
28 Hansom Road, Basking Ridge
Sold August 24, 2005 $750,000
Current list 725,000
25,000 / 3.33 off 8/24/05 sales price
Disclosure: All info from Trulia
Seems like listings that last turned in 2001 to 2003 are still 50 to 100% more then the last sale price. 2004 to 2006 have many in the 1 to 10% above last sale price range.
This is the crap most RE agents are eating daily then going back for seconds and THEN taking home a doggie bag.
sent 2-5-09 to ReMax agents-
“Urgent Message from Dave Liniger
If you have been watching the news this week, you may have noticed that the debate in Washington has finally turned toward real stimulus for the housing industry. As a result, I believe that we could be on the brink of a substantial turn around in the real estate market. Now, it’s critical that we all join together and deliver a powerful message to our legislators that we support this stimulus.
Last night, the Lieberman/Isakson Amendment was included in the senate version of the Economic Stimulus Bill by a unanimous voice vote. This amendment would provide a Tax Credit to all home buyers at the rate of 10% of the sales price up to a limit of $15,000. The credit would be available for a one year period to all purchasers of primary residences.
Today, the senate expects to debate Amendment 353, a proposal by Senator John Ensign (R-NV) that would provide 30 year fixed financing at a rate of about 4%, for anyone purchasing a primary residence.
If these two provisions survive in the final passage of a stimulus bill they could have a tremendous impact on our industry. If they are coupled together with provisions to ease the flow of credit and reduce foreclosures, we could see an immediate and dramatic turn-around in real estate.
I feel that these provisions represent real economic stimulus. They will put money in the hands of millions of homeowners, increase sales, stabilize home values and add more revenues to local communities in the form of property taxes.
I urge each of you to contact your senators and representatives to let them know that you believe these provisions are essential components of any stimulus bill. You can go to the official Senator and House web sites to locate the email and phone number of your legislators.
This may be one of the most critical moments for the real estate industry in our time. Please pass this information on to anyone you might do business with. The outcome of this legislation will have a lasting impact on us all. I appreciate your assistance on this urgent matter.
Thank you.”
And then there’s Larry Yun…
Grim:
Thank you for the comp-killer snapshot; having little familiarity with the NJ market, is there any way to give a sense of what these houses would rent for?
In my neck of NYC, its still far cheaper to rent than purchase, and despite seeing some downward movement on prices, rents are slipping too and with the job market etc. buying seems very risky.
Appreciate any insights. PP
“these arent really comp killers…..prices are still way too high in morris county…”
CAIBC,
THis is why I suspect that these limited price declines in these deisirable towns is important. Indulge me while I get a little geeky.
If you have ever seen astronauts train, they go up in a large Air Force cargo plane and fly big looping parabolas. The plane keeps clinbing and climbing (not unlike RE prices in NJ and other places) and then starts pitching downward. As it does so, two things happen: 1) altitude drops slightly (as is happening with NJ RE prices) and 2) occupants of theplane perceive weightlessness — they float along with the feeling that they will stay floating forever. This, by the way is how the weightless scenes in Apollo 13 were filmed). The thing is, the perception of stabilization at the top is just an illusion and, before the plane’s occupants realize it, the plane has droppe considerable altitude and the occupants get slammed into the deck, the walls, etc. It is a violent adjustment that seems to come out of nowhere.
We are at the top of the parabola. The Air Force planes used to train astronauts are nicknamed the Vomit Comet and I suspect a fair number of homeowners will soon be feeling quite queasy as more substantial drops in prices “seem to come out of nowhere.
heh, heh, heh…Shore said “vomit”…heh, heh, heh…
grim, clot,
“I really hope it isn’t some kind of vindicative schadenfreud where the buyer really doesn’t care about price or property, as long as they are sure the seller is financially, mentally, and socially ruined.”
no such thing going on here….strictly a buisness transaction when it comes to buying a home….to me it all comes down to affordability. the rule of thumb is for me to spend 25 to 30% of take home income on the mrtg. i dont see home prices matching up with that (assuming i put down the traditional 20%). no one should be calling this price decline ‘armagedon’ - call it for what it is - overpriced homes’ prices coming back down to reality?
although it probably does feel like ‘armagedon’ for those holding onto these overprices homes!
Can someone please tell me how the 15k tax credit helps housing values the day after it goes away? If the underlying fundamentals aren’t fixed–like we have lots of jobs and it costs about the same to rent as to buy? what am I missing…
“These Morris County comp killers are all outliers. Madison, Chatham, and Harding are notorious ghettos where it is quite common to not get your first BMW or Benz until you are 25.”
Clearly, we need a program to help these disadvantaged “yutes.” How can they be expected to look a peer from Rumson or Franklin Lakes in the eyes? It is shameful.
Wait, these are blue ribbon train towns. DOH!
Now prices are back down to the ‘05 level, and the number of listings increases every week. NYC is in for a long decline, imho.
Developers in NYC are offering bulk sales at discounts. One developer is selling the remainder of his 75% sold old development at close to 50% off for the remaining units. This is off recently closed sales price. The bank is calling in the loan. Talk about a haircut. That was a trim job done w/ a buzz saw.
Who will the homebuyer tax credit benefit? First-time buyers who’ve been keeping their powder dry and how many Americans fall into that category? Trade-up buyers who have been in their homes for a decade or so. If I paid 2004-2006 money for my house (I didn’t) the credit barely begins to make a dent in my losses. The $7500 credit had no effect in sparking things, and the $15000 one will bring in a few more buyers off the sidelines, but that’s about it. It’s another case of our gov’t caving in to the NAR just to generate a few more commission checks.
grim,
i just saw your caveat on the ‘comp killers’ up top! i guess, all i was trying to say was that i couldnt believe that there are folks out there still paying these prices for homes in morris county!!!
grim, absolutely ‘not good’ deals at all! - althought the smoke rise home in kinnelon did come down that much - you have to factor in the fees associated with living in that ‘gated’ community….its like paying twice the tax amount every year forever!!!
#26 frank: Sure they are frank, um hmm, sure they are. You have a beautiful mind.
#36 based on what?
#37 He/she is an idiot.
Taking their Medicine in Ireland.
http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/ireland/090203/ireland-the-game
#40 like no matter what happens the prices have remained high
Asking and sale prices, are tooo very different things, as demonstrated here all the time.
#19 caibc; The trend really is your friend, and the trend is down, and will continue to be down.
I suggest you decide what your comfort level is, and bid accordingly.
All the seller can say is no. Rinse,and repeat as often as necessary.
#79 sean:It is their own fault, pains me to say it but true.
They forgot where they came from. And became incredibly arrogant and full of themselves.
This Bloomberg piece tells me that the $15k credit will do little to accelerate the plankton effect.
Senate’s Stimulus Tax Credit Favors Higher-Income Homebuyers
The U.S. Senate is working to boost house purchases among six-figure-income households, turning away from Bush administration policies that helped fuel a housing bubble.
By replacing a $7,500 tax credit for first-time homebuyers earning less than $150,000 with a $15,000 break for all income groups as part of the economic stimulus package, senators effectively are encouraging purchases by higher-income households with a reduced risk of default.
…
The effect would be to wipe out the $15,000 income tax a family of four earning about $122,000 would otherwise owe this year if they bought a house. A family earning half that amount would get about $2,300 less in tax benefits for buying a home than they would under current law.
…
The Senate-passed credit for homebuyers, unlike the existing $7,500 credit, isn’t refundable, which means house purchasers who owe less than $15,000 in federal income tax won’t get the full benefit in a single year.
Instead, the Senate provision would allow homeowners to split the $15,000 into two separate tax credits of $7,500 to be taken in successive years. To pay $7,500 in federal taxes, a family of four would have to earn about $92,125, according to Internal Revenue Service tax tables.
…
Lower-income people whose taxes over two years don’t total $15,000 won’t get the full benefit and in many cases would get a better deal under current law, which requires the government to send a check for the difference between taxes paid and the $7,500 credit.
Even more interesting is the abuse potential. From the same link above:
“It’s close to the craziest thing I could think of,” Baker said. “The vast majority of users will just be people shuffling houses.”
…
In some cases, he said, people will try to “game the system” and engage in sham sales with trusted relatives or business partners to claim the credit, although tax lawyers said anti-abuse rules in the tax code may limit such fraud.
From the Home News Tribune:
Sour economy means a $27.7 million shortfall for Middlesex County budget
The national economic downtown, with its moribund real estate and financial markets, means Middlesex County is facing a $27.7 million revenue shortfall for the projected 2009 Operating Budget.
Salaries and wages are being held in check and the overall budget has been reduced $1.52 million from 2008 — to $395.57 million this year.
But the amount to be raised by taxation, or the tax levy, will rise.
As it stands now, the $307.47 million to be raised by taxation in the proposed 2009 budget must be reduced to a maximum tax levy of $297.83 million to get under a state-mandated cap. That cap allows for a maximum tax increases of 2.5 percent, based on the previous year’s budget.
The 2008 tax levy was $281.22 million.
So, finding the $9.6 million to trim from the overall budget is now the chief task at hand. County officials hope to have a workable budget by end of February and are looking at a tentative date of March 5 for its introduction.
Some political news:
“Vice President Joe Biden emphasized a “new tone” in Washington and around the world as he delivered his first major speech Saturday in Munich, Germany.
Biden told delegates at a security conference that the United States will work “preventively, not pre-emptively” whenever possible to avoid conflict, . . . ”
Does anyone find it ironic that Biden gave this speech in Munich? Or is it just me?
(echoes of “peace in our time” waft forth from the Naval Observatory).
3b - They are taking bold honest action to deflate unlike the USA. I guess being the reserve currency of the world has it’s advantages, we get to mark to infinity.
But what the heck let’s stick our great grand kids with the bill since they never visit our graves anyway.
[84] grim,
“people will try to ‘game the system’”
Don’t think the thought hasn’t crossed my mind.
In fact, if you have financing in place, you can sell your home to an LLC or other corporation at a paper gain, try to rent it out (unsuccessfully), then try to sell it(unsuccessfully), and then the LLC sells it back to you at a loss.
You get the 15K credit, and the LLC has a paper “loss” for you (and the other LLC members, who for reasons I won’t get into, are essential) to take on your taxes.
Booyah!!! You have created a tax shelter.
But it is a sham, and the IRS can go after it years into the future (normal statute of limitations is extended in fraud cases, sometimes indefinitely).
[87] sean,
only if our kids have income that is taxable in the U.S.
I am looking into getting my family dual citizenship. Not illegal under US law. Could prove to be ridiculously cheap insurance, especially when setting up those carribean accounts.
[89] redux
in fact, I am working on a very similar matter for a client at this very moment.
Frank,
Is this the job your friend is recruiting for?
State boosts hiring for unemployment hot line
With the national unemployment rate at a 16-year high, the one place some New Jerseyans have found work is the state’s unemployment and foreclosure hot lines.
The state has hired 77 people since October to help field calls from residents seeking work and trying to file unemployment claims, which are up more than 70 percent over last year, according to Labor Department spokesman Kevin Smith.
…
The unemployment hot line has been around since 1998, but recently expanded its hours to handle the volume of calls. In the week ending Jan. 17, more than 20,000 people filed unemployment claims alone. The same week last year, that number was about 12,000, Smith said.
New Jersey’s foreclosure hot line has also had a hard time keeping up with the phones and has hired a handful of new temporary workers.
#87 sean: Oh I agree. But they finally had a good thing going, after all the years of opression and depradation,and they screwed it up.
They forgot where they came from.
“Is this the job your friend is recruiting for?”
JB [91],
One caveat, must be an illegal.
Shore - Re your publishing article - Change or die. Our company is doing a lot of similar stuff with digital transmission of content. If you2e a publisher, you need additional revenur streams beyond print advertising and sales in order to survive.
And I completely agree re the book publishing industry. I had difficulty finding good hires from book companies, even if they had reelvant experience, because they were used to a much slower pace.
Grim says:
February 7, 2009 at 10:28 am
“Clot,
Oh, I agree. Although I’m not sure what really drives the mentality.
Could be a bit of the ol’ “price of everything, vale of nothing”.
Or maybe just some kind of deep rooted scepticism or fear of being cheated.
I really hope it isn’t some kind of vindicative schadenfreud where the buyer really doesn’t care about price or property, as long as they are sure the seller is financially, mentally, and socially ruined.”
Fear of loss, fear of committment.
Clot 51 You are a sick man. Now if I were John & there were onions at the party it would be a different case.
lisoosh [95],
Yes, greed fear syndrome. On the way up greed prevails. Prices are going up 20%, why buy 1, buy 10, this is our grand slam. You can’t go wrong. It’s the best investment on the board. RE prices never decline. Bid higher, higher, we must get in before its too late. Everybody is buying.
On the flip side, when the market turns, greed turns into fear. Now buyers become greedy. Why buy now, prices will be 15-20% lower next year, who wants to buy a falling knife. Will prices retrace to 2001 or 1996? Bid lower, lower. Hell, nobody else is buying. A house is not an investment, it a place to live. Every reason not to buy is now magnified.
Throw out the quants and hire behavorial economists.
3b 77 Hopes, dreams & a total disconnect from data coming in on a daily basis.
BC Bob herd mentailty, the biggest danger right now is loss fear, it is causing our govern’t to go crazy tossing money at a raging fire trying to smother it.
I have to admit I have been enjoying watching the likes of Kudlow, Krammer and the other taking heads on CNBC go “MAD” (by definition denial is a form of insanity) as these permabulls try to explain how the government is going to save us all.
The media plays up greed-fear in bull markets with the message that you can’t afford to stay out of the rising market (buy now or be priced out forever, and never mind the bubble, what bubble?) During bear markets they play down loss-fear (yes there was a bubble, but we are going to take care of it don’t worry about losses, infact we won’t really talk about that raging fire) with the message that if you stay out of the market you’ll miss the big rally.
Reality is either way you will go broke, if you don’t time it right.
In Morris County homes are still selling for these sky high prices??
Wow, there’s no recession here, I don’t care what you say.
I didn’t post the lower priced comp killers. If I did, you’d tell me they were “in the ghetto”.
Given the frequent use of the term, I’m led to believe that most of Northern NJ is “ghetto”.
Of course, whenever I post the higher priced properties, I’m dubbed disingenuous because they don’t represent the rest of the ghetto that is New Jersey.
I’ll back up secondary (#37), wife just mentioned our realtor emailed and said we need to be ready to pounce, stimulous coming and buyers will appear and bring competition for homes.
Grim,
Great work on the Comp Killers. The tone of your comments seems unusual. I like it; I think you serve your readers better when you editorialize and instruct a bit. Keep it up and have a great weekend…
Sean [99],
The main problem is they are attacking this bust as if it was a nornal recesssion. Market gets heated, prices going up, cool off rising prices, combat with restrictive monetary policy. Market slows loosen monetary policy and get the economy going again.
The incompetent don’t realize that this is not a normal recession. It is a balance sheet recession. The only comparisons are the Great D, the Latin American debt crisis and Japan. How did they react to monetary easing/fiscal stimulus?
Our economy, for the last, approx,30 years has been credit driven. Well that game is over. The economy does not need to be revived, it requires a complete overhaul. The economy is dead. In lieu of blind infusions, we need creative destruction. Yet, we continually come up with gimmicks to help revive the flow of credit. All we are creating is massive long term spending plans with zero hope of short term expansion. The patient is buried, debt/disposable income is at 1930 levels. Our solution, try to force more crap into a overloaded septic tank. Zero chance of success. Blow out the dead, start reconstruction. The credit economy is done/finished. Where’s Pavlov’s dog?
Whenever a house sells for a price I would never dream of paying I always wonder who exactly is buying. I am so curious to know their exact income, age, savings, mentality…who are these people that pay such prices? What are they like? Where are they working, how long and how much are they making? It is unfathomable to me that there still are so many people who have the ability to pay (or even receive a loan for) a half million POS cape…
I have become so curious lately that I am almost willing to knock on doors of recently sold homes and just start asking questions.
wallies if you do please let us in on it should be very interesting.
comrade 89: “I am looking into getting my family dual citizenship. Not illegal under US law. Could prove to be ridiculously cheap insurance, especially when setting up those carribean accounts.”
Not sure if that is going to help. US exit tax is already in force and even if you don’t “qualify” for it, you and your family are considered, by IRS, to be US citizens for tax purposes for 10 years.
Besides, since tax cheats like Rangel and Geithner are now in charge, there will be new, more fascist tax laws coming your way in the near future.
Soviet Union was effective in preventing educated people escaping The Empire. Nazi-Germany allowed some Jews to escape in the early 1930’s if they agreed to transfer all their wealth to the Nazi party machine. I’m afraid this is the situation in Obama-Amerika too.
You can leave Amerika only if you agree to hand out all your money to the State.
dont feed the troll dont feed the troll. can’t resist…
Take a closer at those sales in Hoboken Frank:
1201 adams street #215 SOLD FOR 425000 MLS#80012789
Sale Date: 07/24/06 Book: 7972 Page: 197 Price: 440000 NU#: 26
Sr1a Date Book Page Price NU# Ratio Grantee
More Info 12/21/05 7774 96 348900 26 2.03
LOST 15K OVER TWO AND 1/2 YEARS. PLUS MORTGAGE COSTS AND TAXES OF 7100/YEAR.
1300 hudson: 40k loss over 3 and 1/2 years
mls #80012221 selling price $370,000 closed last week
Sale Date: 06/22/05 Book: 7638 Page: 117 Price: 410000 NU#: 0
Sr1a Date Book Page Price NU# Ratio Grantee
More Info 06/22/05 7638 117 410000 23.22
#117 bloomfield 40k+ loss in one year
mls#80012513 Sold for $365000
Sale Date: 06/29/07 Book: 8286 Page: 235 Price: 406500
117 BLOOMFIELD ST #3B
Of the six one bedrooms that closed in hoboken last week, 3 lost money, one was bought from the developer. And of the last two one made a profit from 2002(105k over 7 years) and the last was a rental building that broke up the units. However, the last sale in the rental was an apartment for 300,000 in july. This one closed for 11k less.
“Home prices can fall.
Home prices can fall.
Home prices can fall farther than I believe possible.”
So you’re saying we’ve hit bottom?
That Kinnelon foreclosure on Spice Bush that sold for $667,000 had a judgment of $756,433.53.
is it really a big surprise that home prices are falling? as much as I’d like to buy a house in NJ, it’s not the prices that are necessarily keeping me on the sidelines. it’s the property taxes that scare the hell out of me. we can control how much we choose to spend on a house and how much our monthly payments will be. the big unknown for me is how much property taxes will be once I actually commit to buying a home. until NJ seriously revisits their budget and do things to lower spending, taxes will continue to rise.
a little humor…sign of the times, Gold for sale in New Orleans
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
Stan #107,
Great work pulling that information.
Observation. Comments requested.
Prior to this year, I rarely, if ever, entered McMansions. We and our friends lived in homes that were typically built between 1850 and 1970. It’s just the way it was. When I did spend time in a newer home, it was for times and visits consisting of less than two hours.
However, since we’ve moved to MD, I’ve been spending a lot of time in has houses built after 1990.
I’m having horrible allergy-like symptoms. Regardless of type of animals, whether or plants are present, etc., the same thing has been happening for the last five months. I’ve been tested and the only + result was for a grass allergy/seasonal.
Is there something in newer houses that could cause swelling eyes, congestion, dripping nose, etc., that goes away within one hour after leaving the dwelling? Anybody ever hear anything about this?
“W8ting”
you going to be waiting an awful long time. This state will be bankrupt before too long. Its pass the point of no return.
Glory days are gone, and will for now on just be a Bruce Springsteen.
but don’t worry, your govt and omama loves you and wants the best for you.
not go back to watching sports & hollywood movies, goto McDonalds & shopping, and enjoy your Hg containing & obeseity inducing high fructose corn syrup.
“yes we can” “hope” “change”
SAS
great, the east germans are back to moderation of the boards.
SAS
But there is a housing shortage in NJ. Buy now or you will be locked out forever. NJ isnt building anymore new homes so your home will always go up. Interest rates are at a 30 year low. This home went up in value over 100K in 5 years. Your’re crazy if u dont buy now….Condos sell like hotcakes. You better look at it when it comes on the market or u facej a bidding war. U better meet the seller and be nice to them. U must complement the sellers and bake them cookies.
i wonder if the NJ suicide rate is going up?
can we sell suicide futures?
:)
SAS
Pat,
Newer homes are a lot more energy efficient than older homes. They are sealed up tighter in most cases and there isn’t as much air exchange in a nice drafty house :)
If a house uses a forced air heating system, good builders will make sure there’s a heat exchanger set up that draws in fresh air, heats it with the outgoing warm air so that air in the home doesn’t become stale.
If they don’t have an air to air heat exchanger, because their using a hot water or electric heating system, then there might not be a ventilation system that will exchange the air in the home.
With all the windows shut to keep the cold out, the air can become dirty fast. Allergens build up because there’s no where for them to go and there’s nothing filtering them out.
Not sure if there’s anything specific in new materials or new construction.
there has to be some dumb cop with the 1970s mustache that can sound off on that one? or are you too busy sticking your butt out on the highway writing tkts cause you are worried about your job.
no wait, i got it, your too busy busting that zit faced teenager riding his skateboard.
SAS
So, Tom, does an inspector pick something like that up during the purchase process?
111 HH
I’ll report back on what I see when I get back from NOLA.
“Corzine proposes pension-funding changes”
http://tinyurl.com/cgu2m2
-The plan would allow towns to pay only half of what actuaries say they should to cover the current fiscal year’s liabilities
“DiNapoli says NY pension fund down 20 percent”
http://tinyurl.com/cwm585
-pension fund has lost about 20 percent of its value
-contribution rates may have to be increased in 2011 and 2012
Pat,
It depends on the inspector. Don’t know about MD, but here you usually have to ask for a specific air quality analysis.
A good inspector should look at the hvac system and tell you if it looks like it has an air exchanger and if it looks sufficient for the size of the home.
If you’re thinking of purchasing one of these homes, you should ask the inspector to check the air quality. Problem is, the seller might open all the windows until the inspector comes which can skew the results.
If it’s a forced air heating system, you should check what type of filtration they are using and find out if it can be retrofitted with better filtration if necessary. Follow the inspector around and ask questions. Make sure they check the filter on the air return. Again, a seller can just replace the filter before inspection.
#107 stan:And of the last two one made a profit from 2002(105k over 7 years)
And the poor fools that bought it are going to lose 105K or more over the next 2 years.
http://i123.photobucket.com/albums/o313/Varanty/fishy.jpg
How do ppl get into this weird stuff?
Thanks, Tom. I’m gonna do some more investigation on this one.
Don’t know if you guys noticed, but it looks like the Centuria Project in Fort Lee has been scheduled for a foreclosure auction.
I didn’t see it until late last night so I couldn’t verify it but I can’t think of any other vacant property on Lemoine Ave that would have a judgment of over $30 million. The timeline seems right since the notice of default was filed in June.
It was put up for sale in June for $1 billion.
#104 wallies: I know 2 couples over the last 2 years who paid these prices.
And they are not the type you would think.
Mid level type incomes one a state worker.
One guys entire pay check goes on the mtge payment every month.
#102 curmodgen: Grim has always been even keel and unemptional on the the whole real estate bubble.
I think that even he at this point is getting exasperated that after all that has happened, and the dreadul state of the economy etc., we are still seeig the likes of frank,and now this new poster maplewoodian still in denial.
Truly amazing.
#101 You should ask where were they during the last stimulous ($7500), 15k is going to do it this time?
Maybe will keep doubling it to say,30K or 60k, and than there is our 4% mtg rates too.
sas: ““DiNapoli says NY pension fund down 20 percent”-pension fund has lost about 20 percent of its value
-contribution rates may have to be increased in 2011 and 2012″
States really need new middle-class suckers (err.. I mean tax-payers) to be taken hostages (err I meant “home-owners”). It would probably be good idea for NJ and NY to give massive incentives to new suckers to buy a house and settle down in NY. Otherwise, many will escape NJ/NY taxes.
“comp killers”
i’ve been on boards for sometime now, and i am a RE bear.
i haven’t been the biggest fan of the comp killers. I think it makes an interesting 1 shot story, and shows that prices can, do, and will do down.
but, i need to see several “comps”, several houses that have had similar price reduction, then i would say.. yikes! the we have a trend.
to me, a single snapshot doesn’t carry alot of weight.
the argument was made that, if there is no volume, then how you comp? I agree. but zero to low vol exists, can you call a reduction a killer?
i just look at it with a different angle.
SAS
3b-
Agreed. At 2005 prices at least right now….many have not realzied that they are underwater and will be revising future plans
I am very curious to see how the big developments are faring in JC Hoboken right now
And how long they can hang on with their current prices debt financing etc
#312 sas: Would not a comp killer have to start with at least on comp?
Plus I think grim has shown multiple examples. He is the last one I would accuse of exaggeration, or somehow cooking the data.
“grim has shown multiple examples. He is the last one I would accuse of exaggeration, or somehow cooking the data”
I’m not accuseing anyone of anything.
(well, i do accuse cops & govt of smuggling drugs & funneling the money to wall st which in turn helps to prop up your 401k)
i just have an different view of the comp killers, i don’t give them the red carpet. thats all.
SAS
“Bloomberg News: Goldman Sachs Group Inc. wants to repay the $10 billion it got from the U.S. Treasury last year to signal the firm is healthy and to escape limitations that were imposed with the money, Chief Financial Officer David Viniar said.”
http://tinyurl.com/dg76j7
Goldman’s CEO, Lloyd Blankfein, made $70 million in 2008 according to Goldman’s annual proxy statement. Given the US Treasury’s new proposal to limit executive compensation to $500,000 on future bailout funds, it would appear that Lloyd does not want to take a $69.5 million paycut.
Treasury’s proposal is just a bone. The Administration wants Congressional authorization to spend billions, if not, trillions on new bailouts of toxic assets funded by the taxpayer. They need to look tough on bankers to maintain public support for more financial coup d’etat.
If Goldman Did Not Need the Money, Why Did They Take It?
SAS
“If Goldman Did Not Need the Money, Why Did They Take It?”
Greedy crooks maybe?
“(well, i do accuse cops & govt of smuggling drugs & funneling the money to wall st which in turn helps to prop up your 401k)”
That’s why cops would tell you that they follow drugs; because they will find drug dealers.
They are told not to follow the money; because….well, they don’t want to find where that would lead them.
HC
“be in denial”: translation “be against my point of view”
I do not like to argue but for every “comp killer” there is a comp savior:
MLS#: 2582896 TOWN: Maplewood Twp.*
AD: 485 RICHMOND AVE* ZIP: 07040*
LP: $595,000 SP: $620,000 CD: 12/01/2008
Sold 05/13/2004: $617,000
MLS#: 2558087 TOWN: Maplewood Twp.*
AD: 475 BALDWIN RD* ZIP: 07040*
LP: $749,000
SP: $760,000 CD: 12/12/2008
Sold 11/27/2000: $600,000
I did not say that the rices have not fallen or they will not fall further but nothing as what the so-called comp killers suggest.
“That’s why cops would tell you that they follow drugs; because they will find drug dealers”
yes, they do.
they are there to get rid of any the govt competition. Govt hates competition.
SAS
looks like Wall Streeters screwed big time..Now I understand why they needed the bailout so badly!
“CEOs, Bankers Used Corporate Credit Cards for Sex, Says New York Madam
Wall Street Exposed as Convicted Escort Boss Reveals Client List of 9,800
Wall street lawyers, investment bankers, CEOs and media executives often used corporate credit cards to pay for $2,000 an hour prostitutes, according to the madam who ran one of New York’s biggest and most expensive escort services until it was busted last year.”
http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/story?id=6813806&page=1
Maplewoodian,
First, you’re comparing properties from a different town and county. So that’s not a valid argument.
As for the properties you listed..
The first one had a 0.48% price increase in 4 years. That’s nothing to jump up and down about.
The second one had a 26% increase in 8 years.
Nobody is saying that houses aren’t selling for more than what they were bought for. But if you look at homes that were bought during the mid to late bubble, it’s going to be rare to find any properties that show a profit, especially after you figure in fees.
Seems like people don’t understand what a comp killer is, even after grim tried to explain it.
Tom, I agree that properties will not show a profit, in fact 2006 bought properties are selling for a loss.
What grim called a comp killer is just a comp. It does not show a 1999 or 2000 price. That would be a comp killer. Otherwise it is just a comp. Sorry to spoil the party.
Maplewoodian, what point are you trying to prove. The first one is at 2004 prices, leading me to believe that anyone who purchased over the last five years is underwater
That last one is 3% a year. Seems to be two instances of people who priced it correctly for the market. That is why they sold…..
Secondary at 9:41 — Quotes a realtor: “Prices may come down a little bit more but I personally do not see it dropping drastically. The spring time is going to be here before we know it and congress is about to pass the stimulus package that will include up to $15,000. tax credit that will not have to be payed back regardless if you are a first time home buyer or not and this will bring buyers out of the woodwork. This will not bring out investors since this will be for owner occupied purchases only. With this happening the market will not be skewed as much towards a buyers market. If I could be of any assistance please do not hesitate to contact me.”
Is that Pollyanna Suzie, who posted last week? Sounds like the same talking points from 2006.
Just read your response…..your not getting it….
stan: you are right they are underwater but depending when they bought from 0% to 25%.
Anyone planning to go?
HUGE 3 day New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania Foreclosure Auction Event!!
All homes open for inspection from 11AM to 4PM on 2/21/09, 2/28/09 & 3/01/09.
750+ FORECLOSED HOMES MUST BE SOLD!!
http://www.ushomeauction.com/auction_details.php?auctionID=H-065
“At 2005 prices at least right now….many have not realzied that they are underwater and will be revising future plans”
So, 4 years of no gain, or losses, as we speak, and prices declining futher. By the end of spring, we could be at 2003 prices — essentially six years of flatness. It will be interesting to see where we end up.
[110]
“it’s not the prices that are necessarily keeping me on the sidelines. it’s the property taxes that scare the hell out of me. we can control how much we choose to spend on a house and how much our monthly payments will be. the big unknown for me is how much property taxes will be once I actually commit to buying a home.”
This is what keeps me on the sidelines as well. A 15K tax credit is 1 to 1.5 years worth of property taxes in NJ, Not likely to move many financially literate fence sitters.
““CEOs, Bankers Used Corporate Credit Cards for Sex, Says New York Madam
Wall Street Exposed as Convicted Escort Boss Reveals Client List of 9,800
Wall street lawyers, investment bankers, CEOs and media executives often used corporate credit cards to pay for $2,000 an hour prostitutes, according to the madam who ran one of New York’s biggest and most expensive escort services until it was busted last year.””
Now, let me make clear, I do NOT condone illegal activities and I do not approve of what these folks did. That said, it seems like a more prudent use of money than many of the “investments” they made in recent years. There arn’t enough prostitutes, or enough time, for all of the world’s bankers to spend $50-100 billion or more on such services.
aren’t, even
Gator,
It is hard to see the various publishing houses needing all the office space they currently occupy as they move to the digital world. What is happening with you folks?
stan: it is somewhat odd to call any mispriced (higher) house a comp killer. A comp killer sells for significantly. lower than other houses in its class. The comps I mentioned do not have one.
Frank,
Nice link. It really shows your character promoting such a site.
Those aren’t real auctions. Have you read the purchase contract?
Those auctions have shill bidders and even if you win the auction the seller can back out.
Read someone’s review of it here
http://telecommutingmillionaire.blogspot.com/2008/04/redc-foreclosures-almost-got-me-real.html
Real foreclosure auctions are held by a trustee such as the county sheriff.
MW-
Just reread your posts.
I see. Your point is that they should just be referred to as comps only.
Since they sold, they are where the market is at right now… agreed. I think the Killer part is evidenced by the one that is at 2004 prices, it has killed the comparison for those who bought after that…..and who have pie in the sky appreciation assumptions
I get the point, really semantics and what period you are referencing. If you bought 30 years ago it isn’t kiling you.
It also looks like 2000 pricing Is certainly attainable in the not too distant future from that small sample
Anecdata
Costco was busy-ish today but not overwhelming and carts didn’t appear to be that full.
Old Navy was dead. I don’t mean quieter than usual. I mean me, my kids, one other shopper and a couple of floor staff.
Funny thing is, the parking lot was busy. Don’t know where the people actually went though.
1520 Shore.
Most honest professional transaction in the world. Everybody knows they are getting scr*wed from the get-go.
Comp Killer from Clot’s neck of the woods. Fresh off the hot sheet.
52 Westgate Drive, Clinton NJ
Purchased: 1/19/2007
Purchase Price: $400,000
Sold: 2/6/2009
Sale Price: $355,000
Tough comp to swallow for the owner of #12, who purchased an very similar unit for $432,000 in 2006. Even worse for #16, who paid $435,000 the same year.
BC Bob says:
February 7, 2009 at 1:12 pm
“lisoosh [95],
Throw out the quants and hire behavorial economists.”
YES, YES and YES. I never understood how some economists could work on a purely mathematical model with absolutely no focus on psychology at all.
Then again, having met a couple, maybe I can.
wow,
here is an interesting house for sale….
MLS# 2623471
heck it even has a pool!
Grim, since I gave you a hard time about the $3.7M comp killer post, I just wanted to say that this was a great post.
“Predicting 60% Decline for Manhattan Property; TARP for Trump?”
http://tinyurl.com/cayhxc
#155 maplewoodian: Still buried deep in your denial, deep, so deep.
#144 maplewoodian; You delusional.
some u blokes are too hard on that “maplewoodian” bloke.
so far, what i’ve seen, he gives a fair arguement. we can all agree to disagree sometimes. different points of views should be discussed.
SAS
“New York Madam”
now, there is a real smart person with great entrepreneurial skills. and has got guts to speak out (she has to, otherwise she is a goner).
SAS
“Just How Big Was The NYC Housing Bubble?”
http://tinyurl.com/afcq2j
SAS - too hard is a relative term. Someone here already explained why the term “killer” may not apply to every homebuyer (less applicable to the one who bought 30 yrs ago vs. 3 yrs ago) but the point is very simple - the home sale being discussed (i.e., comp) CANNOT be used to support recent (last 4-5 years) prices. We can agree to disagree - that’s why Grim doesn’t stop woody or davey from posting here. But if someone is going to call Grim disingeneous - that’s uncalled for, don’t ya think?
Victorian says:
February 6, 2009 at 4:43 pm
“a massive PPT type of off-books spending spree to buy stocks and artificially inflate values.”
- How did that work out for Japan? We have too much debt in the system, not gonna happen anytime soon. I still think playing inflation is too early. There has never been inflation with falling house prices.
so how much longer? an estimate? what if housing prices fall for another year or two? no inflation for another 24 months?
well then what is the point of stocking up on food this early?
I can’t figure out mw’s point.
When you say, “That’s gonna kill the curve..,” you know that the braniac in the class is changing the likelihood of you getting an A. Everyone is different, and there are various grades available (A, B, C, etc.). Just like houses in a town.
The killer is an outlier, maybe, but everyone in the class recognizes this statistical change will most likely have an impact on you.
Nice info Tom.
Sas, great link.
Thanks grim for the comp killers and my new mantra.
Sorry if this has been discussed before - but how can you get a tax assessment to reflect an actual purchase price? Most of what I see is over-assessed compared to the current list price.
a movie with a story of how “pump & dump” works:
“Boiler Room”
http://tinyurl.com/s4en2
also review the Jonathan Lebed case.
SAS
Soundtrack ain’t half bad either.
“pump & dump”
keep in mind blokes, people make money on the pump as well as the dump.
also, some of the greatest “pump & dump” can be bloggers.
SAS
SAS-
The problem with MW’s argument was the delivery….
In relation to your post about 60% decline, if its off by half, that is still an enormous decline…..
“also, some of the greatest “pump & dump” can be bloggers”
btw- i’m not saying anyone in particular, it just meant to be taken as a general statement. thats all.
SAS
i have an idea for a stimulus…
why don’t we ask back from the Department of Defense the missing $3.3 trillion from October 1998 and September 2000?
get it back and hand it back to the people.
now, that would be real “change”
SAS
Pat-
I thought he had a point, but when he delves in further to it, I have difficulty following.
BTW, a ball player taking steroids has now shifted the economy to the backpage of the news.
Definitely leaked by the feds…..
#167 sas: I guess that is the point What exaclty is his argument?
If a 3 bedroom house sold 1 year ago, at 450K, and the same or similiar house sold today for 400k, than 400k is the new comp (market value) for any one looking to sell or buy the same house today.
Seems pretty simple to me.
#144 maplwoodian:It does not show a 1999 or 2000 price. That would be a comp killer. Otherwise it is just a comp. Sorry to spoil the party.
What if it showed a 2001, 02, 03, price vs today, is that a comp killer? How many years back does it have to go 9, 10? What is your rationale?
Party not spolied, still raging on.
#134 stan: There is house in my town that went UC,at a list price of 350K in Dec of 08 (has not yet closed)
The exact same house without the new roof, siding, and windows that the above mentioned one has, 2 doors away closed in Oct of 2006 for 450!!!
OUCH!!!
Clotpoll says:
February 6, 2009 at 7:30 pm
I’m not an expert on the area, but exactly what part of Maplewood can I walk in without fear of getting shot in the face?
clot, you crack me up.
“In Hoboken this week 6 1 bedrooms sold in an average of 74 days for an average price of $402,333.”
Frank you keep showing your ignorance. Two years ago they were selling at $450-480K. In two years they’ll be down to the 350k’s at that rate. Thanks for pointing out for the second week in a row that the Hoboken housing market is broke.
There’s been a lot of new construction from 2000 in the areas where I’ve been looking (Middlesex county). Plus, there’s a huge turnover at the peak (my anectodal guess - around 20%). If any of these homeowners want to sell, they have to bite the bullet and bring big cash to the table at closing.
Such owners cannot afford to sell and can just bleed and bleed slowly till they foreclose.
As a buyer all your lowballs will get rejected (on the aforementioned houses. I’m not talking about houses owned by boomers).
This is a real stalemate.. it can only get worse not better. I think we will see massive foreclosures, unless a miracle happens and Wallstreet starts employing in big numbers with big bonuses.
I know I’m preaching to the choir, but I thought by this time there will be deals.. I don’t see any. There’s hardly any good houses on the market where I’m looking
185-3b- people seem to acknowledge now that the real estate market is bad. However, they don’t realize how bad it is or is getting…..very interesting to follow the psychology of it.
That buyer of 2006 you mentioned, may realize he is uderwater. He just doesn’t know by how much…that truly is a huge number. Wow
On a personal note, my MIL just mentioned to my wife that we were right in deciding not to buy in 2006 when we got married.
Tough swimming up stream there for a while……my mother is next to admit it ….everyone thought we needed money or didn’t have enough savings….looking back its easy to say it was easy, but its tough when everyone is telling you your crazy
“also, some of the greatest “pump & dump” can be bloggers”
you mean like john and his distressed (crap) bonds?
HC
“Such owners cannot afford to sell and can just bleed and bleed slowly till they foreclose.
As a buyer all your lowballs will get rejected (on the aforementioned houses. I’m not talking about houses owned by boomers).
This is a real stalemate.. it can only get worse not better”
Of course, seldom MUST one purchase a home. If the folks with the homes to sell do not reduce prices to meet the new market conditions, they simply will not be able to sell — except to suckers. One suspects that there will be fewer and fewer suckers with cash enough to put down on a house or banks willing ot lend to such fools.
The market is what the market is and wishing houses to be worth more than they are is like my wishing all of the dimes in pocket were worth a quarter. While some dimes may well have a value of twenty-five cents, but most are not and never will be.
If a buyer cannot find a reasonable seller, there are always rentals. Enough of the irrational pricing. Tie to vote with closed wallets.
time. Clearly, I need more wine lol
194:
I have to agree with Shore. First time for everything. White?
wedding crashers is a great, great movie.
that is all.
unrelated:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/08/fashion/08halfmill.html?_r=1&ref=style
“Try living on 500k in this town”
how anybody can enjoy watching those two guys is beyond me..Clearly, I need more wine.
197: What a dumb ass news article.
If those bank executives didn’t save any of the billions of dollars they made each year while they were screwing up our economy, that’s their own fault.
I can’t believe anyone would write something like that. These fraudsters ran their companies into the ground, taking our economy with it, and now need trillions of dollars to rescue them.
oops i meant 196.
If NY is too expensive, maybe those executives can move to India, like IBM wants to do with it’s laid of workers.
dumb article? it’s dumb that people live that way. and as a taxpayer who is funding their shit*y company because they ran it into the ground … no, i dont think they should send their kid to private school AND pay $3800 a year for a tutor
oh, and no mention of the wife in that article. so she’s not working, but they STILL NEED A NANNY??
jamil, i tuned you out months ago, and the day i turn to you for movie advice is the day i start listening to anything bi says. because you both share the same tiny brain.
RE: 25
In Morris County homes are selling for less than 2004 prices??
Wow, there’s no recession here, I don’t care what you say. This is a depression!
RE: 26
Talking for recruiters this week, there are plenty of people looking for jobs, my friends are looking for any job offers with in any salary range. Where’s the recession? This is a depression!
yeah. dumb article.
I had to stop reading quickly after I realized they were being serious.
RE: 149
Anyone planning to go?
HUGE 3 day New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania Foreclosure Auction Event!!
All homes open for inspection from 11AM to 4PM on 2/21/09, 2/28/09 & 3/01/09.
750+ FORECLOSED HOMES MUST BE SOLD!!
Oh come on, how can there be any foreclosures if there is no reccesion?
JB,
Damn you and your pesky facts!!!
Oakland, 28 RIVER DELL
SOLD: $879,900 11/29/2005
SOLD: $729,000 1/29/2009
OAKLAND, 52 SILVER BIRCH AVE
SOLD: $392,000 11/18/2005
SOLD: $340,000 2/2/2009
#
PeaceNow says:
February 7, 2009 at 10:11 am
The only area I follow with any regularity is my old neighborhood in NYC—Tribeca—which I moved out of in ‘05. Prices went up slightly after that, but many places were already taking longer to sell. Number of listings remained very steady until this past summer, when they spiked by almost 25%. (In large part, though, this was due to new-construction condos entering the market.) Now prices are back down to the ‘05 level, and the number of listings increases every week. NYC is in for a long decline, imho.
just a humble opinion …
most trends start out west and spread east … when california begins to recover, NY will be 6 months to a year behind it.
FORT LEE, 273 BEVERLY HILLS RD
SOLD: $675,000 7/11/2004
SOLD: $620,000 1/30/2009
re: tax credit
so let’s say you talk to your tax guy in 2009 and your tax bill to the govt is $18,000.
will the 15k bill mean that you suddenly only owe $3,000?
FAIR LAWN, 3-40 HARTLEY PL
SOLD: $299,000 6/29/1999
SOLD: $435,000 8/12/2003
SOLD: $375,000 1/30/2009
By replacing a $7,500 tax credit for first-time homebuyers earning less than $150,000 with a $15,000 break for all income groups as part of the economic stimulus package, senators effectively are encouraging purchases by higher-income households with a reduced risk of default.
awww, shit, i just saw that the credit only applies to those who make LESS THAN 150k? that blows.
question: due to our “situation” my wife is the one who took out the loan; but when you combine our salaries, we’ll over 150k.
can we get the 15k credit? guess we’d have to file separately, right?
BERGENFIELD, 24 ZUEGEL CT
SOLD: $225,000 3/8/1994
SOLD: $500,000 3/31/2006
SOLD: $326,300 2/6/2009
BC Bob says:
February 7, 2009 at 1:12 pm
lisoosh [95],
Yes, greed fear syndrome. On the way up greed prevails. Prices are going up 20%, why buy 1, buy 10, this is our grand slam. You can’t go wrong. It’s the best investment on the board. RE prices never decline. Bid higher, higher, we must get in before its too late. Everybody is buying.
very, very well put. totally nailed it. to the newbies just arriving … when this guy speaks, listen.
Rich 211:
You skipped a sale on that property in fort lee. Sold in 2006 for $900k
Foreclosure judgment was $752k. OLP as a REO was $859k
You sent me the info on it a while back when I wrote this post
http://www.bergenjerseyforeclosures.com/blog/info/entry/how_to_find_a_nj
I heard from someone that driveway was pilled up with snow. Hiding the buckling pavers might have made it easier to sell.
So indicative, and so sad.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/08/us/08lehigh.html?ref=business
In Lehigh Acres, homes are selling at 80 percent off their peak prices. Only two years after there were more jobs than people to work them, fast-food restaurants are laying people off or closing. Crime is up, school enrollment is down, and one in four residents received food stamps in December, nearly a fourfold increase since 2006.
…..Bill Spikowski, a city planning consultant in Fort Myers, said that because Lehigh Acres had so many parcels and few restrictions on what could be built, smaller companies battled for customers. From 2004 to the end of 2006, developers completed 13,183 units in Lehigh Acres — nearly doubling the total stock of 15,216 that existed in 2000, according to Lee County figures.
…..Residents remember the boom for its noise, with dump trucks lining the streets and power tools heard in nearly every neighborhood. Housing prices doubled, then tripled, and jobs were plentiful, nearly all of them tied to real estate.
Signs of trouble were ignored. “Sometimes houses would sell three or four times in a few months, and no one would move in,” Mr. Elliott said.
Then in 2007, it all went quiet. Houses stopped selling. Foreclosures multiplied. The median home price in the Fort Myers area dropped to $215,200 in December 2007, from a peak of $322,300 in December 2005. It had fallen to $106,900 two months ago.”
lisoosh, how would you come with such moniker?
yikes says:
February 7, 2009 at 10:28 pm
re: tax credit
so let’s say you talk to your tax guy in 2009 and your tax bill to the govt is $18,000.
will the 15k bill mean that you suddenly only owe $3,000?
Yikes,
I was thinking the same exact thing. Anyone have an answer?
“If Goldman Did Not Need the Money, Why Did They Take It?”
Greedy crooks maybe?
While is is sometimes comforting to assume that those gentlemen are criminal at heart, such assumptions say more about us than it does about them.
One of the participants in the meeting where the initial agreements were entered indicated that the officials suggested that failure to agree to take the money might precipitate the collapse of the entire financial system. I understand that MS signed first.
Pat - it’s not your imagination re McMansions (or anything built in the past 20 (30?) years. Barbara asked a week or so ago why one wouldn’t want to buy a new house. it’s because, unless they are built to eco-specs (good luck on that!), they off-gas horrible fumes.
we think that houses are made out of benign things like wood and concrete. ha. for a long time now they’ve been made out of bizarro manufactured materials, involving chemicals that end in -zene, and glues that make formadehyde look appetizing. China has become a chemical swamp from the toxic waste we then assemble our houses with. the particle boards and laminates let off noxious fumes like crazy, and it’s even worse if (as Tom points out) you try to weatherproof the place.
I own/live in a condo built in the 70s (believe it or not, this is reasonably desireable here in silicon valley), and it was made of asbestos and other weird things. however, enough time has passed that it has pretty much all broken down (we discovered a strange powdery substance under the carpet that used to be a foam pad). people tell you to let a new house air out for a couple of weeks. ha. I’d say three decades, minimum.
btw, if you are broke and suffering in such a place, there are eco-friendly coatings that you can coat things with that will block the fumes.
no, I’m not personally esp. sensitive to chemicals. but if/when I buy again I plan to hire someone who *is*, to do a walk-through.
Everything’s Hobroken,
You’ve got it backwards. They asked for the money claiming that if they didn’t get it the financial system would collapse.
oh, I didn’t mean to imply that time will improve asbestos. that you can coat over, or remove (we removed ours)
Get your Schadenfreude on!
Foreclosure slideshow of the (no longer) Rich and Famous!
http://businesssheet.alleyinsider.com/2009/1/famous-foreclosees-slideshow
mikey (96)-
I’m not the sicko. You baited me!
You’ve got it backwards.
So you were there and heard that? I doubt it. My source contradicts your assertion flatly.
HC (192)-
John hit the nadir Friday AM, pumping some crap GE bond and screaming “AAA”.
Somebody should really call Mike Milken and get his take on GE paper. I bet his response would be priceless.
yikes (202)-
That’s actually an insult to bi.
Backwards.
To be quite clear, GS, MS, CITI, BOA, and others did argue that Treasury needed to take steps to stabilize the system. I believe it is correct to say that they asked the government to provide stability as needed and several steps were taken post Lehman along these lines.
This is not the same as saying that GS et al all wanted government investment. There are several contemporaneous accounts of participants in the meeting resisting the agreement on the grounds that it was unnecessary for their firms. Treasury reportedly argued that if all did not agree, those that did would become targets, causing the very collapse they were trying to avoid.
While Paulson is in the doghouse at present as a feature of the accepted narrative, I think it likely that his reputation will improve somewhat with time.
One of the Republican senators reviewing the October actions in a hearing described Treasury’s response to the crisis as ‘panicky’ and there seems to be good reason to think so; indeed, the air of panic downtown was obvious and spread wide.
I was amazed at the change the week after the initial signing, with the panic around Wall St near the office dissipating palpably. It now seems to lurk just below the surface; witness the increase in the sales of SPAM and guns along with the MF redemptions of the hoi polloi. When everybody is a Cassandra, opportunity is at hand.
The world can only end once and this ain’t it. We, though, are in for a wrenching change as Kissinger’s analysis of the US proves to have been correct after all. How long will it be before we start pulling out of Europe? Welcome to New Britain.
I love my country and this state. I want it back. I am mad as hell.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=91kdwxFsthI
FIXING U.S. HOME PRICES
The plan, which may be unveiled in Geithner’s much-anticipated speech tomorrow, could, on a massive scale, provide open and honest values on the millions of bank-owned homes now sitting vacant across the country - which have led to quick sales when used on a smaller scale over the past two decades.
One Jacksonville, Fla., home assessed by the Mo-Mod system was re-priced to $122,000 from $160,000 - after $36,000 of repairs were done. It then quickly sold for $126,000, thus supporting the earlier Mo-Mod value.
The Mo-Mod method employs a nationwide network of home-appraisers who all follow the same play-book at determining value - as opposed to using solely area-comparable sales, a system that can yield wildly inflated home prices.
As market stalls, home auctions lure interested buyers
Private auctions, a marketing tool for banks to unload foreclosed homes that failed to move in sheriff and county sales, are becoming big business for companies like Hudson & Marshall, the Dallas-based firm that held the Jan. 31 auction attended by more than 500 people at a Newark hotel.
Williams, who attended the Hudson & Marshall auction in Newark, said the crowd there was a lot larger than ones he had seen at other sales.
With three children he hopes to put through college, Williams, of Roselle, said he decided to take the risk of bidding, which required a nonrefundable $5,000 deposit. The auction house was to receive 5 percent of the $68,000 bid he placed on the three-bedroom property.
He must still add a kitchen and make cosmetic repairs to convert the home into a rental so that it delivers a return on his investment. Otherwise, he’ll get stuck with the property, just as the bank was.
“I don’t see that happening,” he said. “Not with the price I got for it.”
SG (232)-
MoMod? Sounds like HAL to me.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LE1F7d6f1Qk&feature=related
broken (230)-
To my recollection, Klink, in his famous Friday afternoon meeting in which he locked all the top bank CEOs in a room and told them to take the money, forced this loot down the gullet of several banks that didn’t want to take it.
The idea of giving all the banks money was to provide cover for the truly insolvent banks so the public couldn’t identify them (and subsequently short them further into the toilet).
Klink also allegedly told all the bankers that if they turned down the money, they would not be able to return and ask for it later.
Interesting article,
Sunday Perspective: Once the Stimulus Kicks in, the Real Fight Begins
(Source: Oakland Tribune)trackingBy Robert B Reich
But structuralists see it very differently. The bursting of the housing bubble caused the current crisis, but the underlying problem began much earlier — in the late 1970s, when median U.S. incomes began to stall. Because wages got hit then by the double-whammy of global competition and new technologies, the typical American family was able to maintain its living standard only if women went into the workforce in larger numbers, and later, only if everyone worked longer hours.
When even these coping mechanisms were exhausted, families went into debt — a strategy that was viable as long as home values continued to rise. But when the housing bubble burst, families were no longer able to easily refinance and take out home-equity loans. The result: Americans no longer have the money to keep consuming. When you consider that consumers make up 70 percent of the economy, the magnitude of the problem becomes apparent.
I don’t get to follow the threads as often as I like but is it John who keeps asking where is the recession?
I would just like to say my father in-law is in full support of your views. He just informed me 2009 will be looked back on as the time to buy! He also said manasquan prices are up %30 which if anybody has stats on I would love to see. I don’t think they sold more then a dozen houses though so that could certainly skew Price avg.
237 Crossroads
That’s actually Frank that asks where the recession is. I’m sorry to say your father-in-law is as out of touch as my grandmother-in-law. Their denial will show how foolish they truly are if they put their money where their mouths are.
lost (238)-
Much like bi and Frank’s illegal-alien quants, many of the alleged bulls who spout off these days have no skin in the game. Either they are trolling sideliners, or they have had whatever skin they had in the game peeled from them by Mr. Market in a most Lecter-like fashion.
They do seem to like to show up and bleat their twaddle at family events and blogs like this one, though.
240 Clot
Yes sometimes they’re even entertaining.
238 lostinny
problem is he wants me to put my money where his mouth is
he happens to be a realtor of course
241 Crossroads
I am in the same boat. She’s been investing in real estate for 30 years. That doesn’t give either one of them a clue.
lost (240)-
I sometimes wish Grim would bring back Duck.
He was the best troll ever here.
lost (242)-
Sounds like she’s repeated her first bad year in RE investment 30 times.
glad ken lewis and goldmen findally figure it out this is not a bail-out but a bait-in. it is a typical example washington wants to move financial and cultrure center from nyc to dc. they created a panic last fall and took opportinity to make more control everything in business. i have never heard a bank would put a clause about executive compensation on the loan agreement when a small business needs some emergency money. Lewis is right. if you limit 50 people from these banks.they will simply take their clients to somewhere else, say UBS, CSFB, bank of singpore and even people’s bank of china.
>sas says:
February 7, 2009 at 5:26 pm
“Bloomberg News: Goldman Sachs Group Inc. wants to repay the $10 billion it got from the U.S. Treasury last year to signal the firm is healthy and to escape limitations that were imposed with the money, Chief Financial Officer David Viniar said.”
http://tinyurl.com/dg76j7
243, 244 Clot
I can do without Duck. Although, compared to what goes on around here on some days, maybe he wasn’t so bad.
Nah actually she did do well at some points. But in the last few years she’s made some really bad decisions and won’t admit it. Then the rest of us sit there and try to bite our tongues while we’re condescended to about how brilliant she is and the rest of us don’t know what we’re talking about. I love family!
Crystal ball predicts most R.E. transactions in within next 3 years will be through auction companies. Don’t waste your time with any agents this spring, summer or fall. You’ll regret it as prices will contine to fall drastically.
“He was the best troll ever here.”
Clot,
Listen and Duck, the best trolls ever. Akin to Koufax and Drysdale, back to back.
Joe 247 Just sit back & let it all unfold. You will be able to buy from a agent by the end. I’m locked in on my rental till Dec 2010 If it is not over I will most likely be able to do 1 or 2 more. Owner wants to rent till market comes back! (no debt on home) I could be here forever. They have no reason to sell very deep pockets.
Clot 226 & you just couldn’t resist.
does anybody think govt. stimulus will have any effect on stopping deflation??
if house and energy were to stay at peak prices I need to make a lot more $$ so I view deflation as a good thing
You guys are funny, I bought Genworth , cablevision, amerprise, comerica, MI, Citi, BAC, GMAC when things looked the bleakest. Junkbonds are a funny term, most of my bonds are investment grade trading at junk prices. I noticed there is a bond backlash lately. I know people who work at a few of the companies I bought bonds in and when I told them I am getting big interest checks every six months from their firm they got mad at me. I am actually helping them as buyers bring up their price. But somewho they want me to buy stock with no dividend. Why is it when I buy citi bonds at 62 cents on a dollar I am an idiot but the original purchaser in the 1990s who paid par is a smart. Michael Milken was a smart man who did nothing illegal, he was just the scape goat for the S&L crisis which was caused by the Bush family when they dergulated S&Ls and let idiot treasurers of small banks buy complicated junk bonds.
For instance, last week I bought a 10K ford bond for 1,600, I am betting the bonds will get the 30-40 cent on the dollar deal GM is getting and I will clip 1-3 coupons. Worse case is RR is 10 cents and I clip one or two coupons, best case I get par, 10K. That is not wild gambling. That is betting a small amount where the downside is a few hundred and up side is over $8,000. If that was deal or no deal you would pick a suit case. Trouble with junky bonds is inventory. You have to spread the bets aroung. Also my NCC and SOV bonds have STD and PNC A ratings and are near par. Anyone who bought bonds munis or corporates on bad bad days on Wall street in last six months made money. I am done with bonds for now. Last week I started buying the exchanges. NYSE at .5 of tangible book value is a steal. NASD, Deutsche Boerse, CME all less than book are all long term steals. I am not a trader. I am always putting new money in.
Yikes [214]
I don’t think there is an income limit to getting the 15k credit. This is from a WSJ blog:
“The tax credit can only be used for primary residences and unlike the $7,500 tax credit passed last year, the money wouldn’t have to be repaid to the government. There’s also no income restriction on who can claim the credit. The credit is nonrefundable and can be claimed over two years, so buyers whose tax liability is less than $15,000 would have a second year to capture the credit.”
http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2009/02/06/home-buyer-tax-credits-price-tag-35-billion/
“I have to agree with Shore. First time for everything.”
Even a stopped clock is correct twice a day. I have my moments, lol
“218.lisoosh says:
February 7, 2009 at 11:00 pm
So indicative, and so sad.”
As I read this piece early this morning I sat shaking my head. The saddest thing is not that house prices have fallen so far, though, it is that people actually seem to think that “values” have come down. The homes were NEVER worth what they were selling for, it was just a big Ponzi scheme.
Ask Bernie’s clients, it sucks to be the last ones in.
It is sad that people have gotten hurt and that communities are aliing; however, it was fairly obvious for years that this was unsustainable and there would be a crash. Mrs. Shoer and I saw it around 2001, and I am sure many here saw it earlier. Nature cruely weeks out the sick and weak in order to make species stronger and more resilient and capitalism does the same thing, in economic terms. When we stop punishing awful economic decision making, the whole system fails us. Please, let us feed the hungry, provide basic health care to the needy, and put a roof over the heads of the homeless. That said, a chicken in every pot seems to have given way to a 3 BR, 2 bath nest for everyone — even if they can’t afford it.
I don’t think there is an income limit on the credit. In reality no with under 120K in household income should be buying a house. Giving credits for low income people to buy homes is what got us in this mess to begin with. Oh well just stopped by, I am headed down to the beach to enjoy the Jan thaw. Funny on a warm day in Jan by the beach there is no recession!!!!! Too lazy to pull my convt out of storage so my sunroof will have to do!!!!
BC Bob I think prays everynight I will wipe out. I wish him the best with the gold thing, don’t matter to me. I don’t buy it or sell it.
#239,
Clotpoll, I have few billions in this game, how much do you have invested in RE?
#187,
“Two years ago they were selling at $450-480K.” I think you the number of bedrooms confused, 2 years ago 2 bedrooms were selling for 480K, I am showing you 1 bedroom units.
#156,
Tom,
Sounds like you have never been to an auction before. I have Bought a house from REDC and you have 45 days to close. The seller only has the right to decline your bid if it is sold subject to sellers confirmation. It’s not on every property. Lastly, many auctions reserve the right to bid on behalf of the seller. It’s pretty common and they aren’t secret agents in the crowd. Its simply the auctioneer bidding. Why does everything have to be a conspiracy in this country?
Also I don’t promote their auction, they have commercials on TV all day long.
#107,
“Take a closer at those sales in Hoboken Frank”
My point is that homes are still selling for a rip-off prices, if things were so bad, why would anyone buy a home??? Also loosing 10% on a $450K is less than the total rent you would have to pay on the unit and you need to live somewhere. In addition if you did not buy it and left your cash in the stock market, you would have been down 50%+. So I ask again, where’s the recession???
Frank
“Giving credits for low income people to buy homes is what got us in this mess to begin with.”
Agreed. The new proposed tax credit is terrible public policy, but it you were planning to buy in 2009 and you have a high enough income to take advantage of the full credit, you would be crazy not to take it.
“BC Bob I think prays everynight I will wipe out.”
John,
That’s not true. I hope you make a mint. I am looking forward to a top shelf barbeque when I stop by on Mem Day weekend.
Actually, I really don’t pay attention. I only concern myself with my positions. What I don’t have on, can’t hurt me. What’s the point?
Syb [261],
I should not have been eating an apple when I opened that one.
#257 Frank says:
#239,
Clotpoll, I have few billions in this game, how much do you have invested in RE?
Would that be a few billion Zimbabwean?
Frank……Didn’t you have to pay mortgage interest, HOA, property taxes in addition to losing 40K on that condo?
The carrying costs of buying the same place are much higher than renting the same place…. Of course you have to live somewhere, why lose 40k in addition….
Cmon Your better than that……weak
“does anybody think govt. stimulus will have any effect on stopping deflation”
I suspect that the thing that will stop deflation is allowing RE values to revert to levels where ther is, well, value. Until the prices of houses reflect the real economic value of those assets, and not some speculator’s wild-eyed dream of what it “should” be worth, housing prices will continue to drop — regardless of whatever pixi dust or cash the folks in DC sprinkle about the economy.
But then again, Mrs. Shore and I are economic faliures: we have no debt (even overpay credit card and utility bills), own our real estate outright, have a couple years worth of cash on hand, we have retirement savings that are on their way to allowing us to retire someday. Clearly, drains on society without a clue — like many of the others here.
looks like SRS will be under $50 in a few days:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=SRS#chart8:symbol=srs;range=ytd;indicator=volume;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
John [252],
NYSE at .5 of tangible book value is a steal.
Maybe you should look at the financial statements. Tangible book value of NYX is negative. Hugely negative.
268, bi’s black box at work again….. time to double and triple down…
sl (o hai, btw… thanks fer da warnin)
#268,
more like SRS under 20 in few days.
While these people are standing in welfare line, Mexicans by me have no problem getting jobs. Anyone care to explain?
“NJ welfare lines grow longer as jobs continue to dry up”
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2009/02/nj_welfare_lines_grow_longer_a.html
Happy Camper says:
February 7, 2009 at 11:10 pm
“lisoosh, how would you come with such moniker?”
?
Nickname/term of endearment an old friend calls me. Provides nice memories.
John says:
February 8, 2009 at 10:19 am
” I am headed down to the beach to enjoy the Jan thaw.”
It’s February.
http://money.cnn.com/2009/02/06/news/economy/TARP_foreclosures/
Frank says:
February 8, 2009 at 12:39 pm
While these people are standing in welfare line, Mexicans by me have no problem getting jobs. Anyone care to explain?
Can you please back up this statement with data showing that Mexicans do not have problems getting a job???
On the Dual Citizenship issue:
I spend some time on UK boards (for obvious reasons) and there is quite a big uptick in posts from Americans complaining that they don’t like the US any more and want to leave.
These are generally quite amusing:
“I don’t like US politics. What are the politics like there?”
“We are overrun with foreigners and it’s not like it used to be” (so come be an invading foreigner somewhere else).
“There is no work for me here”, (LOTS of work for foreigners without needed skills in the UK of course, duh).
“The US isn’t Christian enough and I read that Scotland is 95% Christian”, THAT went down like a lead balloon - she was talking born-again, Scots are notoriously non-religious and don’t appreciate being preached to.
It is also amazing the number of people who just go to a board, announce that they want to move to country X and ask whether it would suit them. Never been there even on a visit, frequently don’t know what language is spoken and couldn’t manage to find the official immigration website to find eligibility requirements - VERY impressive.
Also a lot of Americans announcing that their great-great-great grandfather came from Scotland and then a. Calling themselves “Scotch” (another lead balloon, Scots don’t consider anybody Scottish who wasn’t born or grew up there or has the funny accent) b. Assuming they have the right to live and work there and will recieve a passport pronto.
Heaven help the rest of the world if the Americans thinking about becoming ex-pats actually make good on their threats.
#262 JBJB: I guess I am dense, and still not getting it. The 15k is just a tax credit, is it not?
#277 lisoosh:Scots are notoriously non-religious and don’t appreciate being preached to.
Maybe not that religious any more, but the secterianism there is still ugly.
They still have those silly Orange maraches evry year. Amazing in this day and age.
Yo Bi,
See the nice double bottom forming?
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=SRS#chart2:symbol=srs;range=1y;indicator=volume;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
#277 lisoosh: Very insulting to call a Scottish person Scotch, as in whiskey.
JBJB says:
February 8, 2009 at 10:01 am
Yikes [214]
I don’t think there is an income limit to getting the 15k credit. This is from a WSJ blog:
“The tax credit can only be used for primary residences and unlike the $7,500 tax credit passed last year, the money wouldn’t have to be repaid to the government. There’s also no income restriction on who can claim the credit. The credit is nonrefundable and can be claimed over two years, so buyers whose tax liability is less than $15,000 would have a second year to capture the credit.”
http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2009/02/06/home-buyer-tax-credits-price-tag-35-billion/
awesome news (for us, at least). we’ll probably do the 7500 split.
will it spur a ton of people to buy? who knows (i doubt it). but 15k is 15k, so i’m glad they’re including it.
“Frank says:
February 8, 2009 at 10:43 am
#187,
“Two years ago they were selling at $450-480K.” I think you the number of bedrooms confused, 2 years ago 2 bedrooms were selling for 480K, I am showing you 1 bedroom units.”
Dude if you could find a 2BD/2Ba in Hoboken 2 years ago that sold for 480K I’d love to see it; in fact I am sure there’s a couple thousand bagholders who spent $650-700K on 2bd/2ba’s who’d like to see it too.
shore guy
where at the shore do you live??
Al, don’t waste your time with that fraud.
Shore Guy - You say you guys have a couple years of liquid cash ready for a downtown. Question - what’s the plan of inflation hits? wouldn’t that hurt that stockpile of cash?
i only ask because we’re planning the same thing, and im not thrilled about losing 100k in cash that was our safety net.
SRS under 20?
Time to take out a HELOC and quadruple up.
John…None of use wish you or really anyone here ill will. I hope your bond strategy works fantastically. I certainly have considered it and understand and agree with your theory behind it. At the same time, shorting China and commercial RE and buying long-term bonds of beat down financials can play friendly together. Believe me, I was very close to buying some BAC under $4 last week.
How amazing is this weather today? We even had a bonafide sunshower this morning. It kind of makes you completely forget about how horrible the Spring RE season is going to be.
IMHO, the market may rally back to the 9 handle on the DJIA tomorrow and Tuesday and expect all the bottom callers to step back up on their soap boxes, but I have a funny feeling that this will be their absolute last time.
So I was at a poker game on Friday night with 7 of my close friends from college and beyond. I took a 2nd (bad beat) as short stacker went all in with an unsuited 9-10 and I happened to have pocket kings. He pulled the straight and I had to settle for 2nd. Took 4th in our second tourney. Came home with an extra $25 and drank Smithwicks, Boddington’s and Magic Hat until 4am. All had a great time. Well had a conversation about the economy with all of them…
Friend A., the Jersey City special ed teacher is fine and lives check to check. He just got a nice inheritance so he is staying put in the ghetto of JC, no kids.
Friend B., buddy from Bloomfield thinks his small publishing firm is going under in the next few weeks. His wife is a masseuse (legitimate) but they live within their means, although check to check as well with no savings (3 kids).
Friend C., let’s just say he is in the paper recycling business is about to turn 40 and still lives with his mom. He is better protected than SAS…capishe? No kids, no way!
Friend D., brother of friend C is a print publisher at a trade rag. He is dying to find a new job because he feels he is out by the Summer as his trade is drying up. They smartly sold (priced correctly) their home in Lincoln Park and are renting a condo until market bottoms. His wife just finished nursing school and is doing great (2 kids).
Friend E., hosted the poker game is in IT and rents a tiny home in Manasquan. He has half custody of his only daughter and is saving for a very modest home. He will survive since he knows how to live cheap, although he has a really stupid addiction to the Guitar Hero genre of video games. He is a gamer geek.
Friend F., corporate lawyer scared the crap outta me. He pulls in 250Gs and owns a nice home in Wall. He privately tells me that he can’t sleep at night anymore. Business is drying up and he owes $4,000 month on his mortgage. His stay at home wife and 3 kids are clueless to how close they are from foreclosure. He’s been looking for other work, but to no avail. Point blank, he asks me what he should do if he gets laid off, as he feels it could be as soon as tomorrow. I told him to tell his family the exact situation they are in and to squat and continue to pay the utility bills. He did not feel that reassured. This morning, Gator checked their mortgage situation on the Monmouth site and they bought the house for 350K about 6 years ago, still owe 29 years on it and now owe $550K. They lived extravagantly. Not any more!
Friend G., the best man at my wedding recently purchased a home in Little Falls. They are so check to check that it is scary. They spoil their 3 kids rotten and are one lost job away from the street. They are oblivious to the situation though and he is the funniest guy alive. I wonder how funny it will be when he’s buying groceries with food stamps.
So of the 8 of us. 3 of us can get through a severe downturn with out too much pain. 4 are one paycheck away from delinquency and 1 (probably the highest single earner among us) is on the edge of depression. If the layoffs continue at their current pace for the next twelve months, we will be in a REAL depression. Think $10,000 from each citizen is gonna cover this? Think again. Eight of us, all making at least double the national average and five will be on the dole.
No recession here Frank. And your need to claim that you own a billion in RE was the most pathetic thing you have ever spouted. Even if you were leveraged 100-1 (which you are not), that would make you a millionaire, which you are not. I thought perhaps you might have been an admin assistant spending about 50% of your income on your Hoboken rental living the supposed high life. Now I’m fairly certain that you are about as well off as an hourly manager at Burger King.
Enjoy the fair weather folks!
Cute 2004 article on expatriation:
http://www.harpers.org/archive/2004/10/0080240
A less fortunate attempt was made in 1972, when Michael Oliver, a Nevada businessman, built an island on a reef 260 miles southwest of Tonga. Hiring a dredger, he piled up sand and mud until he had enough landmass to declare independence for his “Republic of Minerva.” Unfortunately, the Republic of Minerva was soon invaded by a Tongan force, whose number is said to have included a work detail of prisoners, a brass band, and Tonga’s 350-pound king himself. The reef was later officially annexed by the kingdom.
If GS is so solvent than I guess that they will not be selling anything to the “bad bank”. Plus they sould be 100 percent against the idea since we should let the weak companies fail.
#286
Stu: good story. Thanks for sharing. It seems that your fiends would have no problem had they saved a little.
Anyway, no reason for gloom based on it–statistics are more reliable.
3b says:
“February 8, 2009 at 1:18 pm
#277 lisoosh:Scots are notoriously non-religious and don’t appreciate being preached to.
Maybe not that religious any more, but the secterianism there is still ugly.
They still have those silly Orange maraches evry year. Amazing in this day and age.”
3b says:
February 8, 2009 at 1:20 pm
“#277 lisoosh: Very insulting to call a Scottish person Scotch, as in whiskey.”
Dude - you forgot, I AM Scottish, as in grew up in/funny accent/family still there/ frequently visit and all the rest.
The sectarianism you are referring to is only in the Glasgow area - precipitated by an influx from Northern Ireland. Now THOSE Orange marches are a whole other deal. The rest of Scotland doesn’t have the same issue. The north is Church of Scotland and the islands have the Free Presbyterians, who contrary to their name are not particularly free at all, they are very strict observers of the Sabbath. Still won’t talk about it like an Evangelical will - in religion Scots keep things close to the chest.
And being called “Scotch” or worse “Scotch-Irish” is less an insult and more indicative of ignorance.
Growing up we were always bemused by the host of American tourists descending and calling themselves Scottish. The States is one of only two places I can think of where people self identify according to their geneology rather than birthplace.
d2b - any lazy sunday thoughts on the bucks county RE market?
MW 289 & the unemployment numbers are……
Americans had a savings rate of what over the last few years. Negative. Yes by all means use the statistics. Makes stu look positively giddy.
BC (248)-
More like Glavine and Victor Zambrano, back-to-back in ‘07.
[277] lisoosh,
Becoming an expat is not easy, and depends on the country. Gettting Aussie citizenship takes years from what I am told. Also, most countries don’t have the open border, humanitarian streak that the US has, and won’t take you if you look like you will be a drag or take a job away. Much easier to get in if you have wealth, and are willing to invest it there.
I don’t envision any meaningful expatriation from the US. Of those that do, it will often be those who expatriate for perfectly normal reasons (citizenship, family, etc.). There are very few actual tax expatriates since doing so legally costs plenty.
One class of future expats would be those about to cash in big time (if there are any of these people left). Imagine you have created the NEXT BIG THING, perhaps a patent on a potential blockbuster drug or medical device. You anticipate worldwide earnings, and to be a gazillionaire once this goes public. If you aren’t yet a gazillionaire, then get out of the US, renounce your citizenship, and then realize your gazillions. Same thing applies if you hit the powerball for 150 million dollars. Provided a foreign owner can cash in, move to Florida briefly, then move to a nontax country and cash your ticket, taking lump sum. IRS will withhold 30%, but it is a lot better than the 40% the Feds would take under Obama, plus whatever the state takes. What’s 20% of 150 million? Is 30 million worth ditching US citizenship?
But you are correct about the bleating since very few (even me) will actually expatriate, and would do so very reluctantly.
[106] jamil
I am familiar with those requirements. And I would be a pretty piss-poor tax lawyer if I couldn’t figure out a way around that landscape.
The hurdles are not the real problem. The real problem is that the IRS can basically decide anything is a sham, or lacks econ substance, or lacks substantial econ effect, and go after you with the full weight of the gov. I fully expect (and the IRS has said) that it will go after patching the holes that are letting $$$ out of the country.
I remember in pre-99 Hong Kong, residents crowding into UK offices and commonwealth co. embassies, practically climbing over each other to get in and get visas to Commonwealth countries. As HK citizens, they still had rights to travel in the rest of the empire, and they wanted to have that british passport so that, if the time came, they could tell the Chinese to stuff it, they were british so stand aside and let me on the plane.
Insurance. Sucks to pay for it, but sucks worse if you need it and don’t have it.
I remember saying some months back that I thought Section 121 of the Code had a lot to do with the bubble.
Check out the graph. It is mind-boggling.
http://taxprof.typepad.com/taxprof_blog/2008/09/did-121-contrib.html
Does anyone here have a cat with really good burglery skills and a hankering for frozen mice?
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2009/02/dead_lab_mice_lost_from_umdnj.html
“Shore Guy - You say you guys have a couple years of liquid cash ready for a downtown. Question - what’s the plan of inflation hits? wouldn’t that hurt that stockpile of cash?
i only ask because we’re planning the same thing, and im not thrilled about losing 100k in cash that was our safety net.
”
Right now one has a choice, hold onto cash (and risk inflation) or exchange the cash for an asset (and risk declining asset values).
Given the current situation, I see cash as possibly losing value to inflation but equities and RE sure bets to lose money. Inthe past year, we watched a few hundred grand vanish into thin air as equities declined. For now, I will stick with cash. If RE values seem to reflect real value (even if not at bottom) we will move some of our assets there. That said, we see no pressure from inflation pushing us there for the moment.
AND, he added, plaese do not arrest me:
Two lawmakers seek Springsteen ticket probe
by The Associated Press
Sunday February 08, 2009, 1:24 PM
Two members of Congress, one from New Jersey, the other from New York, are calling for a federal investigation into Ticketmaster for sending fans who wanted Bruce Springsteen tickets to its own ticket reselling website that had much higher prices.
Rep. Bill Pascrell of New Jersey and Sen. Charles Schumer of New York said today that the Federal Trade Commission should get to the bottom of it.
Tickets for Springsteen’s upcoming tour went on sale at 10 a.m. Monday, and many fans who went online to buy tickets were immediately directed to Ticketmaster’s reselling site, TicketsNow.
Ticketmaster CEO Irving Azoff has apologized and says the company will no longer direct fans to the subsidiary.
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2009/02/two_lawmakers_seek_springsteen.html
Madison comp killers? JB, you’re a commie. God bless you.
How long do I have to wait for the unrestrained social unrest? I can’t wait to smash stuff.
Pinky! The revolution will be televised.
[301] essex
in that case, I had better remember my black balaclava and my ghillie suit.
From Mish. What recession?
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_nSTO-vZpSgc/SY845fmAqNI/AAAAAAAAFkM/AX6K0pwVexU/s1600-h/job-losses.png
302 nom
mmmm baklava…. my favorite!
sl
303 BC
….omigod.
sl :(
nom - Having emigrated multiple times (for a variety of reasons), I can say categorically, that expatriation is much harder then most imagine, except perhaps for the very wealthy, who tend to live in an international world of their own anyway.
The only problem I can see with your scenario (gazillionaire) is that most relatively civilized countries have a much higher tax rate than the US anyway. Unless the idea is some island tax haven with travelling constantly).
BC that chart indicates the severity of the current situation and exactly why we can’t compare todays events to that past. The situation we are in right now is unprecedented. Thanks for posting.
Shore 299-
Over the summer I tried to get Ravens-Eagles tickets on the Ravens site. They were only on sale the web and I was refreshing repeatedly at 10 AM. The minute they were on sale I was there and they were sold out.
Teams sell their extra tickets on stub-hub or they have their own ticket exchanges where fans can buy tickets from ’season ticket holders’ for an inflated price.
I’m mot paying extra for a ticket. I’ll pay face value or nothing. There’s always minor league play or College.
I went to a St Joe’s game at the Palestra last week. Better (and cheaper) than any pro game that I’ve been to in a while.
Yikes-
I’ve seen some very healthy price declines in my area over near King of Prussia.
okay, on a slow Sunday afternoon, here’s my political prediction.
after four years of viewing Democratic corruption and stupidity (which is no worse than Republican, just different)(kind of petty ante but in your face; Barney Frank’s bank versus Haliburton), people will consider voting for ANYONE who is not corrupt. and that anyone will be Palin, whose claim to fame in Alaska (along with getting pork for the state) was her anti-corruption campaign. she will position herself as an avenging angel who will swoop down and finally provide the perp walks that the populace is desperate for (and rightly so).
intelligence (as academe measures it) will be dismissed as a desirable quality (Bernanke?? Geithner?? all those mainstream academic economists who missed the bubble??) voters will be looking for a reasonable amount of intelligence (Palin’s father is a retired high school science teacher, and she is intelligent by the standards of politicians), lack of corruption, and judgment. her lack of glibness (correctly, I think, since I’m from a small town, too) will be attributed to an upbringing that does not encourage talkativeness in children (I had a friend who, with her brother, was beaten by their father after guests left, if they spoke while the guests were there. she’s extremely smart but not exactly glib). and she’ll have trainers, who will bring out any innate talent.
now - I totally disagree with Palin re abortion rights, treatment of gays, evolution, and a number of other matters. I have no idea how I’ll vote (I’m registered Democrat, but don’t vote along party lines). but if Ob*ama doesn’t start the perp walks soon . . . and I don’t think he will - and people get poorer - which they surely will - vengeance is going to really come into style among voters.
fortunately for the Jewish population (per Stu’s stated worries, and Denninger’s recent post), evangelicals love and revere Jews, when they’re not preoccupied with annoying them (an acquaintance from my small town loves her Jewish doctor, and has told me that every night she prays for his conversion, and tells him so when she sees him. and that’s in Connecticut!).
okay, start bashing.
Commercial Real Estate Bubble Is Set to Burst
http://seekingalpha.com/article/119236-commercial-real-estate-bubble-is-set-to-burst
Give it a read, next on the hit parade.
penny ante
Karen,
You love parentheses, don’t you? :-p
ATTENTION HOMEBUYERS in Morris County, NJ
How to Beat the Home Buying Bubble of Over-Inflated Prices
There is an answer to the astronomical rising prices of homes. Within our area, housing prices have more than doubled (and in some instances, have tripled) in the past 5-6 years for no reason except greed. People have put themselves into debt, because they did not want to lose a home because they became emotionally attached and in turn, took out a mortgage that a mortgage broker said they could afford -when in actuality they could not. I am a homeowner in Chatham and have lived here for most of my life. The realtors have strongly brainwashed homebuyers to purchase more expensive homes than they could afford and persuaded home buyers to take out huge mortgages in order to purchase a home. Due to the greed of the realtors, the homeowners who sold their homes, which accelerated into a false “supply and demand”, houses have escalated so much that middle class prospective homebuyers cannot afford to purchase a home. My children cannot afford to purchase a home.
Greed has brought down Wall Street, Banks, Mortgage companies, and other large corporations. This is where we had to fall, in order to learn and know the important things in life. When I sell my home, it will be for the Pre-Real Estate Boom price: an average price where the middle class person can afford to purchase a home, easily. This will begin the lowering cost of homes. People are losing their homes and their jobs. Middle America cannot get over-inflated mortgages, any longer, nor do they want to. We have entered into an economic collapse.
A colleague of mine has been looking to purchase his first home. Just to give you an example, in December 2002, the house sold for $210,000. In October 2008 (5 years later), the realtor has listed the home price as $420,000. Bear in mind, there has been a small amount of cosmetic work done to the home (nothing exceptional). The price has listed as more than doubled in the past 5 years, which is completely ludicrous. A doubling of a house price in 5 years is pure greed. This is just one of the many examples in this area of a 20 mile radius. Has your salary doubled or tripled within 5 years? No, in fact, many salaries have decreased in the past 5 years.
When my colleague had questioned the realtor regarding the reasoning behind the over- inflated prices, she mentioned “it was for a reason.” She alluded to the statement to “keep particular people out.” I expressed to her how disgusting that was and at this time in history, someone actually had the audacity to express this sentiment. She was from a big conglomerate Realtor firm. Needless to say, my colleague dropped her as a realtor and strongly advises against recommending her company.
People need to stick together and look at the “big picture” and look at their fellow man, instead of the most exhorbant amount of money they can put into their pockets.
So, as homebuyers, there is a way to bring the prices of homes (Pre-boom real estate prices – 2001) to an affordable price.
1) In the state of New Jersey, the cost of a sale of a home is public information. All records date back to the building of the home.
2) Call the Taxation Dept. at the Borough Town Hall in the designated town. Give them the address of your prospective home and ask them all the sale dates of the home and what they sold for. You may want to know the last 3 or 4 home sales of the particular home in order to determine the inflated real estate boom market price and to determine a bid price.
3) Bid according to the price BEFORE the Real Estate Boom Market. At the point of the Real Estate Boom Market – during and at its highest peak, these are over-inflated homes and they are simply not worth it.
4) For example, the house that my colleague was reviewing, sold for $210,000 in December 2002. In October 2008, the realtor listed the price as $420,000. So, with the collapse of the economy; people losing their jobs and homes, coupled with the doubling over-inflated prices of homes, in order to bid for a home, bid closer to the 2002 price of $210,000 with an increase of a few dollars. Use your discretion.
5) Do not be swayed by realtors. They are conniving, aggressive sales people, who are looking out for how much money they can put in their pockets. They are NOT looking out for your best interest, whatsoever. The most used phrase to attempt to condone listing homes with extremely high prices; even the most modest small/average home in the Chatham, NJ or the Morris County area, the realtor would say in that unconvincing wispy voice, “It’s C-h-a-t-h-a-m” or “It’s M-A-D-I-S-O-N.” You could sell a home in any neighborhood with those sales tactics and using that tone and connotation. “It’s W-H-I-P-P-A-N-Y.” Sounds the same, right? You understand the brainwashing techniques.
There are homeowners in this area and the surrounding towns, who are able to sell their home for a reasonable price. Not everyone is greedy. Another friend of mine sold their home. This was at the beginning of the real estate boom. His house was listed as $750,000 by the realtor. He met a couple whom he liked. He expressed to the couple that he has been blessed with an average income and a wonderful family, and would like to give someone an opportunity. He sold his house for more than ½ the listed price at $350,000. Look at the possibilities. Do not listen to the negative people. Everything is possible.
The more homebuyers use these tactics and stick to this principle, the more homes will decline in price, close to where they were before the Real Estate Inflationary Boom of Double and Triple prices. Soon, homebuyers will be able to purchase homes again at a reasonable price and not an inflationary false price.
Good luck!
I have a dilemma:
I’m getting married in May (that’s not the dilemma) I own a condo in Montclair (2-bedroom, 2-bathroom, 2-car garage) and my fiance owns a condo in Roxbury. (1-bed, 1-bath, 1-car garage) Both places are a bit too small for us to live in together. Both of us also have a good amount of equity and even if we sell our homes at a loss will still have a 20-25% down payment if we look at houses in the 500-550k range.
We are looking to sell both places and purchase a house in Morris County…Hanover, East Hanover, Morris Township, Morris Plains, etc.
From what I’ve seen and read on this site - I’m scared that anything we purchase will lose value and quickly. While we are planning to be there 4-6 years….I’m wondering what the best move will be. The realtor we are working with has reminded me at least 100 times of the historically low interest rates and that “You couldn’t have a better time to buy than now”.
While I haven’t decided what to do I’ve narrowed it down to a few options:
1. Sell both places - rent for 6-months to year and see what happens.
2. Sell her place and move into mine. While it will be a tight squeeze no doubt we can do it for a year or so.
3. Sell both places and buy a home in this ‘Spectacular time to buy’
Thoughts?
Looking in Morris county:
Look at my blog above yours. Simply, call the town halls and get the last few sale prices of the particular home. Then bid 1.5% yearly increase according to a 2001 or lower year price. For example, if a house sold in 2002 at $215,000, the 1.5% yearly increase is approximately $237,000. You would bid $237,000 or a bit more. Just because the home is listed double as what it should be, doesn’t mean the house is worth it. They are not! The homebuyers need to take back the housing issue in their own hands, and start bidding low. By law, every bid you put in, the Real Estate bid MUST put the bid in with paperwork. If not, they lose their license. Also, for your own education, last night, CNBC had a great show, “House of Cards” describing in detail the false mortgages, the manipulation of currency, etc. It is truly disgusting. I am sure it will be on again. Check your listings. If people keep bidding at the asking prices, no one will ever be able to afford a home, and there will continue to be foreclosures. Be a part of the Solution, not a part of the problem.
Good luck!
REMEMBER; NO MATTER WHAT YOU BID ON A HOME, THE REAL ESTATE AGENT IS LIABLE TO PUT IN THE BID WITH A CONTRACT. IF SHE/HE DOESNT, YOU CAN TAKE ACTIONS TO TAKE THEIR LICENSE AWAY!!!!!!! IF THE HOUSE IS $500,000 — YOU CAN BID $250,000. THE MORE HOMEBUYERS BID ACCORDING TO PRE-BOOM PRICES, THE BETTER OFF WE ALL ARE AND WE CAN BUY HOMES, ONCE AGAIN!