February Comp Killer!

Here are a sampling of properties that have closed across Northern NJ over the past 20 days or so (excludes Morris, see the Morris Comp Killer by clicking the “Comp Killer” shortcut on the right). It might help to read about what a comp killer is. Realize that I’m not trying to say that these properties are “good deals”, many of them are not. But what they do show is that prices can, and will fall, no matter what price range, style, or geographic area that home is in.

Make no mistake, we are nowhere near a market bottom. Prices will continue to fall over the next year. This isn’t to say there aren’t some opportunities in this market, there are, but they are rare and difficult to find. The majority of homes on the market today continue to be wildly overpriced.


23 Whittredge Road, Summit NJ
Purchased: 6/23/2000
Purchase Price: $1,145,000

MLS# 2572707
Original List Price: $1,850,000 $1,975,000 (2005)
Sold: 2/12/2009
Sale Price: $1,100,000
(4% under the 2000 purchase price and 44% below the original 2005 list price)


275 East Bradford Ave, Cedar Grove NJ
Purchased: 12/13/1991
Purchase Price: $1,450,000

MLS# 2509082
Original List Price: $2,995,000 (2007)
Sold: 2/5/2009
Sale Price: $1,450,000
(No, this is not a misprint, short sale, sold at the 1991 purchase price, 51.6% under the 2007 original list price. This is why you do not buy properties during bubbles.)


902 Highland Ave, Westfield NJ
Purchased: 6/7/2006
Purchase Price: $1,450,000

MLS# 2588015
Sold: 1/28/2009 (close enough)
Sale Price: $1,250,000
(13.8% under the 2006 purchase price, a loss of more than $250,000 factoring in commissions)


12 Wadsworth Court, Teaneck NJ
Purchased: 6/15/2001
Purchase Price: $400,000

MLS# 2825917
Sold: 2/10/2009
Sale Price: $370,000
Owner facing foreclosure, lis pendens filed for $531,000. Short sale.
(7.5% under the 2001 purchase price!)


38 Newell Place, North Arlington NJ
Purchased: 5/26/2006
Purchase Price: $470,000

(Foreclosed, December 2008)

MLS# 2851963
Sold: 2/4/2009
Sale Price: $297,900
(36.6% under the 2006 purchase price)


24 Semel Ave, Garfield NJ
Purchased: 12/20/2005
Purchase Price: $500,000

(Foreclosed, October 2008)

MLS# 2851923
Sold: 2/9/2009
Sale Price: $192,000
(61.6% under the 2005 purchase price)


354 Hickory Street, Washington Twp NJ
Purchased: 11/10/2004
Purchase Price: $459,900

MLS# 2842917
Sold: 2/6/2009
Sale Price: $430,000
(6.5% under the 2004 purchase price)


54 Silver Birch Ave, Oakland NJ
Purchased: 11/18/2005
Purchase Price: $392,000

MLS# 2822610
Sold: 2/2/2009
Sale Price: $340,000
(13.3% under the 2005 purchase price)


24 Zuegel Court, Bergenfield NJ
Purchased: 3/31/2006
Purchase Price: $500,000

MLS# 2852261
Sold: 2/6/2009
Sale Price: $326,300
(34.7% under the 2006 purchase price)


140 O’Shaughnessy Lane, Closter NJ
Listed for Sale: 5/12/2006
Original List Price: $1,225,000
Reduced to: $995,000
Expired: 9/2/2007
DOM: 479

(Foreclosed November of 2007)

MLS# 2841374
Sold: 2/2/2009
Sale Price: $735,000
(40% under the 2006 asking price)


237 W. Madison Ave, Dumont NJ
Purchased: 10/28/2004
Purchase Price: $375,000

MLS# 2838072
Sold: 2/13/2009
Sale Price: $265,000
(29.3% under the 2004 purchase price)


54 Spruce Street, Farview NJ
Purchased: 11/1/2006
Purchase Price: $373,000

MLS# 2806554
Sold: 2/11/2009
Sale Price: $300,000
(19.6% under the 2006 purchase price)


340 Webster Drive, New Milford NJ
Listed for Sale: 3/6/2006
Original List Price: $689,900
Reduced to: $595,000
Expired: 5/31/2007
DOM: 335

(Foreclosed August of 2008)

MLS# 2845913
Sold: 2/2/2009
Sale Price: $395,000
(42.7% under the 2006 asking price)


535 Fairmont Ave, Westfield NJ
Purchased: 7/8/2004
Purchase Price: $1,375,000

MLS# 2599070
Sold: 2/2/2009
Sale Price: $1,350,000
(2% under the 2004 purchase price)


6 Radcliffe, New Providence NJ
Purchased: 10/28/2004
Purchase Price: $495,000

MLS# 2560642
Original List Price: $549,900 (2006)
Sold: 2/13/2009
Sale Price: $472,000
(4.6% under the 2004 purchase price, 14.2% below the 2006 list price)


46 Broadale Road, Clifton NJ
Purchased: 2/28/2007
Purchase Price: $629,000

MLS# 2615324
Sold: 2/12/2009
Sale Price: $530,000
(15.7% under the 2007 purchase price)


9206 Ravenscroft, Clifton NJ
Purchased: 1/23/2006
Purchase Price: $370,478

MLS# 2578334
Sold: 2/04/2009
Sale Price: $290,000
(21.7% under the 2006 purchase price)


74 Mountainside Drive, Pompton Lakes NJ
Purchased: 3/9/2005
Purchase Price: $382,500

MLS# 2517154
Sold: 2/9/2009
Sale Price: $311,000
(18.7% under the 2005 purchase price)


224 Levinberg Lane, Wayne NJ
Purchased: 10/27/2003
Purchase Price: $593,667

MLS# 2584247
Sold: 2/10/2009
Sale Price: $543,600
(8.4% under the 2003 purchase price)


139 Tooker Ave, Springfield NJ
Purchased: 1/26/2007
Purchase Price: $415,000

MLS# 2534079
Sold: 1/16/2009
Sale Price: $339,000
(18.3% under the 2007 purchase price)


2005 Wood Ave, Roselle NJ
Purchased: 5/11/2007
Purchase Price: $324,600

MLS# 2504184
Sold: 1/29/2009
Sale Price: $230,000
(29.1% under the 2007 purchase price)


773 Amsterdam Ave, Roselle
Purchased: 5/19/2006
Purchase Price: $264,900

(Foreclosed, August 2008)

MLS# 2613603
Sold: 2/2/2009
Sale Price: $178,500
(32.6% under the 2006 purchase price)


1354 Stockton Street, Rahway NJ
Purchased: 7/7/2006
Purchase Price: $347,500

MLS# 2568416
Sold: 1/21/2009
Sale Price: $225,000
(35.3% under the 2006 purchase price)


2 Bujak Court, Bridgewater NJ
Purchased: 8/10/2007
Purchase Price: $690,000

MLS# 2522117
Sold: 2/10/2009
Sale Price: $555,000
(19.6% under the 2007 purchase price)


52 Westgate Drive, Clinton NJ
Purchased: 1/19/2007
Purchase Price: $400,000

MLS# 2562645
Sold: 2/6/2009
Sale Price: $355,000
(11.3% under the 2007 purchase price)


17 Danberry Drive, East Amwell NJ
Purchased: 10/5/2007
Purchase Price: $552,000

MLS# 2549724
Sold: 1/30/2009
Sale Price: $540,000
(2.2% under the 2007 purchase price)


18 Stonehouse Drive, Readington NJ
Purchased: 10/15/2004
Purchase Price: $612,000

MLS# 2517824
Sold: 1/30/2009
Sale Price: $546,000
(10.8% under the 2004 purchase price)

This entry was posted in Comp Killer, New Jersey Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

361 Responses to February Comp Killer!

  1. BC Bob says:

    Come on JB. You’re cherry picking again.

  2. C Dawg says:

    Figgity Fizurst!

  3. C Dawg says:

    Drat!

  4. kettle1 says:

    grim,

    those bushes are horrid, thats not a comp, real shrubs would be worth 30 – 50 K

  5. zieba says:

    The Dumont property looks evil.

  6. Qwerty says:

    It’s different here!

    24 Zuegel Court
    Bergenfield NJ

    Sold March 2006: $500,000

    Sold February 2009: $326,300

  7. kettle1 says:

    I kind of like the closter home

  8. Sold: 2/2/2009
    Sale Price: $395,000

    But how? Suzanne researched this!

  9. Ben says:

    “But how? Suzanne researched this!”

    Can we all chip in money to get the actors that played the husband and wife to do a follow up commercial? The kids are now going to enter kindergarten and their house is foreclosed on.

  10. Qwerty says:

    Good news, we’ve hit the bottom:

    ——————

    ECONOMIC REPORT

    Seven years of wealth gains gone
    After years of strong growth, typical nest egg now smaller than in 2001

    WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) – The nest egg of the typical American family is smaller now than it was seven years ago, according to Federal Reserve data released Thursday.

    A rising percentage of households were excessively indebted. In 2007, 14.7% of households were paying more than 40% of their income on debt service (including rent) up from 12.2% in 2004. More than a quarter of the poorest households were paying more than 40% of their incomes. The biggest increases in debt-service levels, however, occurred among those making more than median income, especially those at the very top.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Seven-years-wealth-gains-gone/story.aspx?guid={25FECF6C-D974-4A45-A166-0E8D02684A80}

  11. kettle1 says:

    More companies resist paying jobless benefits

    It’s hard enough to lose a job. But for a growing proportion of U.S. workers, the troubles really set in when they apply for unemployment benefits.
    More than a quarter of people applying for unemployment compensation have their rights to the benefit challenged as employers increasingly act to block payouts to former workers. The proportion of claims disputed by former employers and state agencies has reached record levels in recent years, according to the Labor Department numbers tallied by the Urban Institute. Under state and federal laws, employees who are fired for misbehavior or quit voluntarily are ineligible for unemployment compensation. When jobless claims are blocked, employers save money because their unemployment insurance rates are based on the amount of the benefits their workers collect.

    http://www.thenewstribune.com/news/nationworld/story/624560.html

  12. Hard Place says:

    reinvestor101 says:
    February 13, 2009 at 2:53 pm

    You’re no damn freedom fighter. You’re a damn deadender and the only price you like is free. Guess what terrorist? It ain’t gonna happen.

    No, I’ll buy a place for $1. In NYC, places were being sold for next to nothing as long as you could pay off the tax liabilities. This was in the 70’s. Common story, but I know someone who bought a building in the mid 70’s for 100k. They finally sold it 1 1/2 years ago for $5.2mm. That’s about 14% just on the capital gains and not including any rental income. I would say that is the embodiment of real estate investing. You proposition to invest in real estate now is akin to slipping on a pair of cement shoes to go swimming. Even Michael Phelps (pre-bong hits) would have trouble treading water.

  13. #9 – I’d chip in, but only if we could have some sort or Casavetes type ending where they scream drunkenly at each other.

  14. Clotpoll says:

    I guess Woody is composing some sort of post on the “social frame” around these houses.

    Can’t wait to see it.

    The only two questions I have left for this troll are: 1) how underwater are you on your house?, and 2) do you need foreclosure counseling?

  15. Ben says:

    “I’d chip in, but only if we could have some sort or Casavetes type ending where they scream drunkenly at each other.”

    I’d be more for some type of commercial where they are busy stripping the house as they are getting foreclosed on. They load the stainless steel oven and fridge into his pickup. Then sell it back to Suzanne to try to get 10% of the commissions she took on that transaction.

  16. zieba says:

    RE: 7
    Looks like it would be easy to defend if not for the garage doors. Windows are narrow and vertical, would make decent vertical slits for shooters, just bust the glass, blow up the stairs and start clearing the landscape.

    rat,tat,tat,tat,tat…

  17. kettle1 says:

    current protest over global finance crisis (see link for summary of each)

    * BOSNIA:

    * BULGARIA:

    * BRITAIN:

    * FRANCE:

    * GERMANY:

    * GREECE:

    * ICELAND:

    * LATVIA:

    * LITHUANIA:

    * RUSSIA:

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/governmentFilingsNews/idUKLB77261720090211?sp=true

  18. kettle1 says:

    Asia: The Coming Fury

    In China, about 20 million workers have lost their jobs in the last few months, many of them heading back to the countryside, where they will find little work. The authorities are rightly worried that what they label “mass group incidents,” which have been increasing in the last decade, might spin out of control. With the safety valve of foreign demand for Indonesian and Filipino workers shut off, hundreds of thousands of workers are returning home to few jobs and dying farms. Suffering is likely to be accompanied by rising protest, as it already has in Vietnam, where strikes are spreading like wildfire. Korea, with its tradition of militant labor and peasant protest, is a ticking time bomb. Indeed, East Asia may be entering a period of radical protest and social revolution that went out of style when export-oriented industrialization became the fashion three decades ago.

    http://www.fpif.org/fpiftxt/5855

  19. Clotpoll says:

    SRS on a nice run today. Can’t hold a good thing down!

    Again, bi is strangely absent…

  20. Or we could go totally post-apocalyptic! They could feed Suzanne to their starving kids while warring gangs shoot it out in the burned out husk of their home…

    …. or, you know, not.

  21. Clotpoll says:

    I say the family has Suzanne strapped to a chair and has put a bomb collar around her neck.

    Either the lender forgives their mortgage, or Suzanne becomes a Jackson Pollock.

  22. kettle1 says:

    ‘Time Bomb’ Ticks in Hungary as Roma Tension Rises

    Hungary is contending with rising resentment toward its Roma, or Gypsy, population as the economy sinks and unrest grows. A police chief who last month blamed Roma for crime in his city was fired by the government, then reinstated after more than 1,000 people protested. Anti-Roma demonstrations also erupted in western Hungary last weekend after media reports that Roma men were responsible for the murder of a local athlete. A court in December banned a two-year-old uniformed nationalist group sworn to tackle what it called “Roma crime.” As in other European countries, Hungary’s Roma live in the poorest areas and endure the highest rates of unemployment, said Janos Ladanyi, director for the Center of Social, Regional and Ethnic Conflicts in Budapest.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aKxCuUOn3h50&refer=exclusive

  23. All Hype says:

    THe House passed the porkulus bill. Welcome to the Great Recession. One more useless stimulus will seal our fate for the next 10 years.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/House-passes-Obamas-economic-apf-14358281.html

    still_looking, are you up for communal llving? I can babysit little sl.

  24. kettle1 says:

    tosh

    …….ummmm……. maybe you need a beer…..

  25. kettle1 says:

    Hype,

    do i need to do the Nompound welcome speech again?

  26. Hard Place says:

    I agree, Buy China, Brazil, Australia, Canada. Sell US and Europe.

    From previous thread.

    BC Bob – Agree w/ most of that. I’m not sold on Canada, though I would be more predisposed to Mexico. They’ve got the right demographic.

  27. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    More owners accept fact their own home values have fallen

    More than half of homeowners recently surveyed by Zillow.com believe their home lost value in 2008, a sign that Americans may be getting more realistic about what their homes are currently worth.

    Fifty-seven percent of the 1,573 homeowners who participated in the survey in January said that their home lost value during the year, compared with 38% who said their home value was declining in the second quarter of 2008.
    In reality, 76% percent of U.S. homes lost value last year, according to Zillow.

    “It’s clear that the ‘not my house’ sentiment that was so prevalent in earlier surveys is waning, and homeowners are opening their eyes to the unfortunate reality of significant losses in home values across most of the country,” said Stan Humphries, Zillow’s vice president of data and analytics for Zillow, in a news release.
    Still, many think that the worst may be over. More than two-thirds believe their home’s value will increase or stay the same in the first half of this year, according to the survey.

    “There’s a curious optimism for homeowners when asked about the future — most seem to believe we’ve hit a bottom and the worst has passed. Unfortunately, the data tells another story. With year-over-year home value losses continuing to accelerate, most areas of the country will see housing values get worse before they begin to stabilize,” Humphries said.

  28. CAIBC says:

    i cant believe the prices for the Garfield and New Milford house! grim you want to check those numbers again?
    wow i still cant believe it!!!!

  29. John says:

    Nice, speaking of tax liens, Nassau County is selling Dina Lohans tax lean today for failure to pay property taxes on her Merrick home. That is lindsey lohans mom.

  30. CAIBC says:

    this is not happening in prestigous Bergen county is it?

  31. kettle1 says:

    we need a bill that requires that all congressmen and senators read every page of every bill they vote on. Their signatures represent an legal acknowledgment that they have fully read the document and any violation of this statute will be deemed perjury with a penalty of immediate expulsion from office and being barred from holding public office for life.

  32. BC Bob says:

    HP [26],

    The canucks are rich in resources. Our #1 exporter of oil.

  33. CAIBC says:

    someone actually paid 500K for that house in garfield!!

  34. Sean says:

    Titanic II in effect.

    “Bloomberg TV reporting the BofA bank splitting into Corporate and Investment Bank.”

  35. Hard Place says:

    John says:
    February 13, 2009 at 3:25 pm
    Nice, speaking of tax liens, Nassau County is selling Dina Lohans tax lean today for failure to pay property taxes on her Merrick home. That is lindsey lohans mom.

    John – Now I know where you get some of your stories from. Stop reading US Weekly. j/k.

  36. CAIBC says:

    and the new milford home had an original list price of 689K?
    i knew the prices were absurd but these prices should have been laughed at even by the realtors who signed up to list them!

  37. kettle1 says:

    BC

    Greenlight Founder Takes Grandfather’s Advice on Gold (Update1)
    Email | Print | A A A

    By Stewart Bailey and Saijel Kishan

    Jan. 28 (Bloomberg) — Greenlight Capital Inc. founder David Einhorn is finally taking his grandfather’s advice. The $5.1 billion hedge fund is buying gold for the first time amid the threat of inflation from increased government spending.

    Since Einhorn was 10 years old, his grandfather has warned him that investing in bullion and gold-mining stocks was the only “sensible” thing to do given the threat of inflation and the risks of so-called fiat currencies, New York-based Greenlight said in a Jan. 20 letter to clients. The firm had never before considered buying bullion or mining-company shares.

    “To everyone’s dismay, we believe some of Grandpa Ben’s predictions are playing out,” Greenlight said in the letter, a copy of which was obtained by Bloomberg News. “The size of the Fed’s balance sheet is exploding, and the currency is being debased.”

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aqvwUIqllyRc

  38. comrade nom deplume says:

    apologies if this has been posted. Surprised that the NY Pravda actually allowed one of its editorialists to criticize The One.

    “During 2010, the economic decline abated, but the recovery did not arrive. There were a few false dawns, and stagnation. The problem was this: The policy makers knew how to pull economic levers, but they did not know how to use those levers to affect social psychology.

    The crisis was labeled an economic crisis, but it was really a psychological crisis. It was caused by a mood of fear and uncertainty, which led consumers to not spend, bankers to not lend and entrepreneurs to not risk. No amount of federal spending could change this psychology because uncertainty about the future remained acute.

    Essentially, Americans had migrated from one society to another — from a society of high trust to a society of low trust, from a society of optimism to a society of foreboding, from a society in which certain financial habits applied to a society in which they did not. In the new world, investors had no basis from which to calculate risk. Families slowly deleveraged. Bankers had no way to measure the future value of assets.

    Cognitive scientists distinguish between normal risk-assessment decisions, which activate the reward-prediction regions of the brain, and decisions made amid extreme uncertainty, which generate activity in the amygdala. These are different mental processes using different strategies and producing different results. Americans were suddenly forced to cope with this second category, extreme uncertainty.

    Economists and policy makers had no way to peer into this darkness. Their methods were largely based on the assumption that people are rational, predictable and pretty much the same. Their models work best in times of equilibrium. But in this moment of disequilibrium, behavior was nonlinear, unpredictable, emergent and stubbornly resistant to Keynesian rationalism.

    The failure to generate a recovery led to a collapse of public confidence. President Obama’s promises of 3.5 million jobs now seemed a sham and his former certainty a delusion. The political climate grew more polarized. That meant it was impossible to tackle entitlement debt. That and the economic climate meant it was impossible to raise taxes or cut spending or do anything to reduce the yawning deficits. Federal deficits were 15 percent of G.D.P. and growing.

    Far from easing uncertainty, the exploding deficits led to more fear. The U.S. could not afford to respond to new emergencies, like hurricanes or foreign crises. Other nations sensed American overextension. Foreign debt-holders grew nervous. Interest rates rose. Congress indulged its worst instincts, erecting trade barriers, propping up doomed companies. Scholars began to talk about the American Disease, akin to the British Disease of the 1970s.”

    Basically, I agree with Brooks. This is how I see things playing out from 10,000 feet. The view from the ground is uglier, of course.

  39. 3b says:

    #6 qwerty: I know a guy who lives in Bergenfield and was considering upgrading to another town.

    Had some realtors in at the end of last year for a current market analysis.

    If the house was listed and sold at the suggestred price,after the realtor’s commision he would have gotten what he paid for it in 1987.

    Right around the peak of the last housing bubble.

  40. nwnj1 says:

    No one home: Record 1 in 9 housing units empty

    A record 1 in 9 U.S. homes are vacant, a glut created by the housing boom and subsequent collapse.

    “The numbers are further documentation of the gravity of the housing problem,” says Nicolas Retsinas, head of Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies. “This inventory is delaying any kind of housing recovery.”

  41. BC Bob says:

    “The size of the Fed’s balance sheet is exploding, and the currency is being debased.”

    kettle[35],

    Sound familiar?

  42. 3b says:

    clot: Is it unreasonable to factor in mtg subsidies to deadbeats when contemplating putting in a bid on a house??

  43. Hard Place says:

    BC Bob says:
    February 13, 2009 at 3:27 pm
    HP [26],

    The canucks are rich in resources. Our #1 exporter of oil.

    They are definitely resource rich. I’m not sure how long oil stays low enough to make oil sands not as viable. Definitely some strong undercurrents to change oil consumption demand. Fan of potash as it has stayed fairly strong and prices of producers has collapsed.

  44. grim says:

    I’ll post up some more comp killers, later, I’ve got a headache.

    Make sure you scroll through them, I’ve added some and moved others.

  45. grim says:

    IMHO, the most significant one here is the Teaneck townhouse.

    That thing sold for less than it was purchased for IN 2001. That is just crazy.

    Owners HELOC’ed themselves up to a $531,000 outstanding mortgage balance.

  46. Hard Place says:

    902 Highland Ave, Westfield NJ
    Purchased: 6/7/2006
    Purchase Price: $1,450,000

    MLS# 2588015
    Sold: 1/28/2009 (close enough)
    Sale Price: $1,250,000
    (13.8% under the 2006 purchase price, a loss of more than $250,000 factoring in commissions)

    I would have thought there would be more comp killers in a town like Westfield for $1mm+ houses. There is a lot of inventory in that area and $1mm homes had typically the largest amount of inventory to absorb with very little ability to finance. This sector of homes will probably become comp killers once the wave of wall streeters recently laid off have trouble finding job alternatives. Also all those pharmaceutical execs too.

  47. Painhrtz says:

    As a too much of my life resident of Garfield I’m more shocked by the 500K original sale price than the current one. Those places down at that end have to pay flood even though the Passaic is tidal in that section and in a 40 foor ravine. All of those house on that end of Semel are 80 to 100 years young. You couldn’t give those places away when I did my prison sentence in GHS during the late eighties early nineties. Back to lurking.

  48. grim says:

    I would have thought there would be more comp killers in a town like Westfield for $1mm+ houses.

    There are, but they tend to be new construction. Difficult to comp those properties. It is just much easier for me to go through the old tax records to pull prior sales. In that case, the prior sale basically reflects the property/teardown cost.

  49. Fiddy Cents on the Dollar says:

    Re- US Car Companies

    As far as GM is concerned, I can’t believe the lack of foresight from the executives. All those years of selling high-margin Escalades (and their poor cousins the Tahoe & Denali) and there’s no cash reserves to weather a bad year?!?!?

    The Hummer was pure profit, essentially a military vehicle that someone dressed up in leather and chrome. All the R&D was funded by the Pentagon….this platform was free! And there’s nothing left to fund forward-looking projects?

  50. Painhrtz says:

    foor = foot

    bad grammer = I can’t believe I have a college education and lack the ability to proofread. I also get paid to find other people’s mistakes. Stupid Friday afternoon

    Have a happy weekend

  51. kettle1 says:

    Fiddy,

    Only the H1 was based off of the military platform. The H2 and H3 were based off of the heavy duty pickup platform.

    regardless you’re point is still valid

  52. afe says:

    Grim!

    FEBRUARY Comp Killers! Are you kidding me? Are you on that disingenuous kick again? It’s almost March for God’s sake! Will you at least call it Mid-February Comp Killer? At least then we can start believing these are 4 real!

  53. zieba says:

    RE: 33

    At late stages of the game some folks didn’t care what the price was, all they cared about was (a) no money down and (b) what my monthly payment would be…. and quick, tell me quick where to sign! before my friend/neighbor gets one.

    There was no concept of total price or amortization, these were just apartments with lawns/backyards.

  54. AstoriaMike says:

    From CNN:
    http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/asiapcf/02/11/china.drought/index.html

    China farmers struggling under severe drought

    Fifty-year-old farmer Du Jianmin says if it doesn’t rain soon in his corner of northern China, his winter wheat crops — which his village of 120 people relies on for food for the year — will die.

    “I’ll have to find a job in the city if the drought goes on and the wheat dies,” he said. “It has not been raining for a long time. We need to bring out water from house to water the wheat. So we stopped planting wheat.”

    This is a formula for major disaster. When 2 million migrant workers have no job and they go back home to farms which cannot produce crops because of a major drought, and then unemployed and hungry millions turn back around to the cities and start protesting. Asians are a non-violent people by nature, but I can see this getting out of hand.

    -am

  55. afe says:

    Oh, wait March, no, no, that’s no good, March always conjures up thoughts of Spring selling season…um, how about winter end?

  56. zieba says:

    Grim,

    Some of these were real eye openers! I dare say some are approaching affordability levels if not for NJ taxes.

    ….even scarier? The declines have further to go.

  57. kettle1 says:

    Astoria,

    its much worse then you think…….

  58. Hard Place says:


    There are, but they tend to be new construction. Difficult to comp those properties. It is just much easier for me to go through the old tax records to pull prior sales. In that case, the prior sale basically reflects the property/teardown cost.

    Makes sense. Developers have less attachment to properties, so sell at whatever price the market bears. It would be interesting to take these and compare them to similarly tax assessed homes on sale. If I were a buyer that’s one of the comps I would request.

  59. Fiddy Cents on the Dollar says:

    I don’t mean to single out GM, either.

    Chrysler milked that mini-van concept for all it was worth. I don’t even think they have a hybrid on the drawing board, do they?

    And Ford used their big truck platform to maximize the profit across the whole line. I think the humongous Excursion was actually too big to fit in a standard-sized garage. Don’t the profits on the Lincoln Navigator flow back to Ford??

    I expected more from US Auto makers.

  60. chicagofinance says:

    maplewoodian says:
    February 13, 2009 at 2:12 pm
    jcer: the universities you mention only offer word class post graduate education and research. The undergraduate does not even start to compare to european/asian schools. That’s why the graduate students are mostly foreigners. Their undergraduates cannot make it into their graduate programs. Actually it is quite ridiculous. The undergraduates end up to become streeters or realtors (or presidents)

    you-said-wood:
    #1 undergrads shower, so they are ineligible to be grad students
    #2 undergrads also end up posting in the same blogs on the Internet that you do, and accuse you of having the personality of a priapism

  61. afe says:

    Grim – The cherry picking just doesn’t stop with you, does it? Feast your eyes on these beauties? Why only focus on NJ properties, Grim? You tryin’ to steer this market into the ground or somethin’?

    http://realestate.aol.com/pictures/selling/where-prices-are-rising?ncid=AOLCOMMre00DYNLprim0001

  62. chicagofinance says:

    I’ll be absolutely honest with you, and I apologize should this offend anyone. The U.S. auto industry has failed because its administrative core is in Michigan/Detroit. You simply cannot maintain a world class organization in that area. It is an ongoing personnel issue.

    To the extent you see this formerly critical U.S. industry runs with second-class talent, you observe the results.

  63. John says:

    http://www.tmz.com/2009/02/12/who-wants-to-buy-dina-lohans-debt/

    My Lohan story was from TMZ, one of the best news outlets ever.

  64. 3b says:

    #63 chgo: Well they have benn located in Detroit/Michigan for over 100 years.

    Why is it now a problem of personnel and where they come from?

    Look at what the so called talent in NYC did to the financial industry.

  65. afe says:

    Grim – seriously tho’ – can you post some Lps for these? Just to get a sense of how over-priced listings are compared to sell prices. So for example how much was that New Providence unit listed for? Thanks and have a good weekend!

  66. Qwerty says:

    Get your “social frames” around this, additional airings of “House of Cards”:

    Saturday, February 14th 7p | 10p ET

    Sunday, February 15th 9p ET

    Monday, February 16th 8p | 12a ET

    Sunday, March 1st Midnight ET
    Sunday, March 15th 9p ET

    THE HOUSE OF CARDS

    CNBC presents the definitive report on the defining story of our time. CNBC correspondent David Faber investigates the origins of the global economic crisis, with first person accounts from home buyers, mortgage brokers, investment bankers and investors – most of whom let greed blind them, leading to the greatest financial collapse since the Great Depression.

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/28892719/

    This was a fantastic piece. Don’t miss it.

  67. Hard Place says:

    John says:
    February 13, 2009 at 4:23 pm
    http://www.tmz.com/2009/02/12/who-wants-to-buy-dina-lohans-debt/

    My Lohan story was from TMZ, one of the best news outlets ever.

    At least you are forthright enough to admit you read it. It reminds me of the MD’s I used to work with that would gossip about the things mentioned in the business section of the NY Post or about some counterpart on Page Six, but would never be caught dead walking down the street holding the Post.

  68. Qwerty says:

    Airing Tuesday February 17th – “Inside the Meltdown”:

    http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/meltdown/

  69. skep-tic says:

    #63

    “The U.S. auto industry has failed because its administrative core is in Michigan/Detroit. You simply cannot maintain a world class organization in that area. It is an ongoing personnel issue”

    this is a pretty specious argument. Detroit was one of the top 5 largest cities in the U.S. for at least 50 yrs. For a long time, the auto industry attracted people from all over the country to work there. In addition, Michigan has a massive, top shelf state university that attracts talent to the area from the entire world.

    I would grant you that in more recent history, the area/industry became insular, but I think this has more to do with the fact that the auto industry matured a long time ago, rather than anything inherent in Detroit itself.

  70. SG says:

    To the extent you see this formerly critical U.S. industry runs with second-class talent, you observe the results.

    I guess if they were in NYC, you would be hearing about, “Sub-prime SUV backed securities, causing global credit crunch and meltdown as Oil prices went to $4 a gallon and resell prices went much below what owners owned for their SUVs”.

  71. Hard Place says:

    3b says:
    February 13, 2009 at 4:23 pm
    #63 chgo: Well they have benn located in Detroit/Michigan for over 100 years.

    Why is it now a problem of personnel and where they come from?

    Look at what the so called talent in NYC did to the financial industry.

    Touche!

  72. 3b says:

    #71 skpetic: Agreed.

  73. sas says:

    its almost 5’clock on a Fri.

    for the paid pump & dumpers, have a good weekend.

    SAS

  74. skep-tic says:

    with respect to the city of Detroit (as opposed to surrounding areas), a turning point can be seen in the supreme court case from the early 70s which ruled that there was no obligation of surrounding suburbs to share school funds with inner city districts. this decision gave the green light to de facto segregation and obviously hightened the incentive for white flight. the same thing played out in most U.S. cities, but Detroit never recovered. It is interesting to think about how similar NYC might be to Detroit today if not for the twin bubbles of the last 15 yrs which returned prosperity to the city.

  75. sas says:

    “Is this 1930 all over again?”
    http://tinyurl.com/czftao

  76. Hard Place says:

    with respect to the city of Detroit (as opposed to surrounding areas), a turning point can be seen in the supreme court case from the early 70s which ruled that there was no obligation of surrounding suburbs to share school funds with inner city districts. this decision gave the green light to de facto segregation and obviously hightened the incentive for white flight. the same thing played out in most U.S. cities, but Detroit never recovered. It is interesting to think about how similar NYC might be to Detroit today if not for the twin bubbles of the last 15 yrs which returned prosperity to the city.

    Interesting point. All it takes is for one riot and the city is tainted. Look at Newark. It still can’t shake its old reputation. I have seen changes in Newark, but the old stigma still sticks. The caveat with Newark is that its resurgence could have been because of the RE wave and the tide could be going out again.

  77. HEHEHE says:

    I wasn’t aware markit made these available for free, nice charts of CMBX spreads

    http://www.markit.com/information/products/category/indices/cmbx.html

  78. sas says:

    speaking of riots…

    an old, on the down low scheme i think of when i see riots or unrest.

    consultants set up arson/riot networks & agent provocateurs tp trigger cat bond insurace claims set up hedge funds.(event arbitrageurs in the Chicago futures markets)

    when the first civil arrest breaks out, follow the cat claims. you will find out who started it. Its usually not some dumb sap that lost their cool.

    they even do it with brushfires & in other countries.
    ex. Victoria, Australia

    but hey, what do i know…
    i ain’t been out of Lodi since 77.

    SAS

  79. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae suspend foreclosure sales

    Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae late Friday said they are immediately suspending all foreclosure sales of properties through March 6. The move is in anticipation of the government’s foreclosure prevention and loan modification program and is expected to give more time to troubled borrowers to find an alternative to foreclosure.

  80. grim says:

    Ok, now I’m really too tired to keep running through the tax records.

    I’ll do some more tomorrow morning, but I’m done pulling MLS tonight.

  81. sas says:

    opps, mispellings:

    “consultants set up arson/riot networks & agent provocateurs to trigger cat bond insurace claims set up by hedge funds.(profits for event arbitrageurs in the Chicago futures markets)

  82. Hard Place says:

    http://ny.therealdeal.com/articles/developers-best-laid-plans-stymied-by-recession-5

    Nice little read about NYC. So imagine all these condos that are being developed that can not be sold. They turn into rentals. They now put pressure on rental prices due to larger supply. Rents drop. So now the buy/rent ratio, which is already out of whack, becomes further out of whack. Wash, rinse, repeat. Spin & dry. Then collect the loose coins.

  83. sas says:

    “Outsourced federal jobs more likely to be low-wage”
    http://tinyurl.com/aerdwc

  84. Hard Place says:

    but hey, what do i know…
    i ain’t been out of Lodi since 77.

    SAS

    Just out of curiousity, but do you step out of the house w/out Kevlar on?

  85. sas says:

    kettle,

    Light Sweet Crude vs Brent

    reverse of the usual price relationship. analogous to table wine costing more than a good champagne.

    ?
    SAS

  86. BC Bob says:

    “expected to give more time to troubled borrowers to find an alternative to foreclosure.”

    [81],

    Better chance of serving cookies to Santa after he slides down the chimney.

    Placing a moratorium on foreclosures only delays the inevitable. If you don’t allow foreclosures, the problem will never be solved. As a result, homeowners, credit, sellers, buyers are all frozen. Welcome to the world of the walking dead. Zombieism.

  87. sas says:

    “Just out of curiousity, but do you step out of the house w/out Kevlar on?”

    no to the Kevlar.

    cautious at restaurants, and only goto ones that I have a good rapport with the place.

    Chelation therapy once in a lifetime is more than enough.

    SAS

  88. Clotpoll says:

    3b (42)-

    Sure, it’s reasonable.

    But once you do that, you realize that only an idiot would buy a house, given the results of your calculation.

  89. chicagofinance says:

    skep-tic says:
    February 13, 2009 at 4:41 pm
    #63 “The U.S. auto industry has failed because its administrative core is in Michigan/Detroit. You simply cannot maintain a world class organization in that area. It is an ongoing personnel issue” this is a pretty specious argument. Detroit was one of the top 5 largest cities in the U.S. for at least 50 yrs. For a long time, the auto industry attracted people from all over the country to work there. In addition, Michigan has a massive, top shelf state university that attracts talent to the area from the entire world. I would grant you that in more recent history, the area/industry became insular, but I think this has more to do with the fact that the auto industry matured a long time ago, rather than anything inherent in Detroit itself.

    skep: are we agreeing? It wasn’t until the 1970’s that Michigan realized it had a problem, and until the 1980’s that they even attempted to allieviate it. Too late….MSU & UMich have been sliding backward into mediocrity ever since…..still solid, but as you say insular….

  90. rhymingrealtor says:

    BC,

    One of those comps looks familar (-;

    KL

  91. safeashouses says:

    #61 chifi,

    I had to google priapism.

    This site is educational in so many ways.

  92. grim says:

    KL,

    C’mon, you can’t drop something like that and not expect us to wonder.

  93. Clotpoll says:

    chi (63)-

    The educational system has succeeded in making American everywhere pretty much equally stupid.

    Now, the gubmint’s next project is to trap people in their houses forever.

  94. grim says:

    Bank Failure Friday!

  95. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    Sherman County Bank of Neb. closed, 10th closure in 2009

  96. grim says:

    Sure is early for the first failure announcement.

    We must be in for a long night.

  97. grim says:

    BC,

    Much, much appreciated. Thank you.

  98. nj ecapee says:

    Jimmy Buffett played a surprise, free concert at his Margaritaville restaurant and bar on Duval Street.

    Buffett rolled out a new song inspired by the current state of global economics, called “We’ve Got a Lot to Drink About.”

  99. safeashouses says:

    #98 grim,

    Maybe they just wanted to get an early start to the 3 day weekend.

    Great job with the comp killers grim.

  100. Clotpoll says:

    escape (100)-

    Jimmy Buffett = music for accountants

  101. safeashouses says:

    Am I the only one who thinks these comp killers are still overpriced?

  102. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    Sherman County Bank of Neb. fails, 10th closure in 2009

    The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and state regulators on Friday shut down Sherman County Bank of Loup City, Neb., the tenth bank failure of 2009 and the 35th since the start of the current credit crisis. All deposit accounts have been transferred to Heritage Bank, Wood River, Neb. and former Sherman County Bank locations will reopen as branches of Heritage Bank on Tuesday. In addition to assuming all of Sherman County Bank’s $85.1 million deposits, Heritage Bank agreed to purchase about $21.8 million in assets. The FDIC will retain the remaining assets for later disposition.

  103. grim says:

    The FDIC will retain the remaining assets for later disposition.

    FDIC turned into a bad bank?

  104. scribe says:

    Also from Business Week on H-1b visas:

    [snip]

    The controversy over the H-1B visa program for highly skilled workers is heating up once again. Federal agents detained 11 people in six states as part of a wide investigation into suspected visa fraud, the U.S. Attorney’s office in Iowa announced on Feb. 12, a day after the arrests. Those arrested are accused of fraudulently representing themselves or other workers in immigration documents.

    Besides the arrests, Vision Systems Group, an IT services firm based in South Plainfield, N.J., with a branch office in Coon Rapids, Iowa, was indicted on 10 federal counts, including conspiracy and mail fraud charges. The firm allegedly used fraudulent documents to bring H-1B visa workers into the U.S. The government is seeking the forfeiture of $7.4 million from Vision Systems that was gained through the alleged offenses. Five other technology companies, including Worldwide Software Services and Sana Systems in Clinton, Iowa, remain under investigation for document fraud, prosecutors said. “We are only at the tip of iceberg as to where this [investigation] leads,” said Matthew G. Whitaker, U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of Iowa. “We have a ways to go and more [fraud] to uncover.”

  105. afe says:

    Grim – Forgot to say “thank-you!” earlier for pulling these in the first place! You are awesome.

  106. jam says:

    “Even if consumer confidence hit rock bottom, that most likely would not be enough, by itself, to cause a depression. For things to become really dire, the nation’s financial institutions would have to fail at the same time that unemployment began significantly rising. Only if banks suddenly closed, or it became impossible for companies to access short-term lines of credit, would things begin spiraling out of control.”

    NY Times article from March 08

  107. comrade nom deplume says:

    From the “we voted for you, now take care of us” department:

    Fifteen Massachusetts and New Hampshire House and Senate members Feb. 13 called on the Internal Revenue Service to postpone this year’s planned shutdown of paper tax return processing at its Andover and Fitchburg, Mass., facilities until at least 2012, as well as to keep the current workforce.

    The Congress members wrote in a letter to IRS Commissioner Douglas Shulman that the planned reduction at the Andover location was based on IRS’s projection that 80 percent of tax returns would be filed electronically by the 2007 filing season, a National Treasury Employees Union news release said. NTEU President Colleen M. Kelley agreed with the lawmakers’ request and noted that only 59 percent of returns were filed electronically last year, which was the same number as in the previous year, it said.

    The lawmakers noted that these layoffs would be a “troubling move” given the current economic climate, the news release said. “If you choose to go forward with the reduction in force, we strongly urge you to bring new work programs to the Andover Center so that the IRS is able to retain the knowledge and experience of the soon to be displaced employees that have dedicated so many years of service and talent to the IRS,” the House and Senate members wrote in the letter.

  108. chicagofinance says:

    safeashouses says:
    February 13, 2009 at 5:41 pm
    #61 chifi, I had to google priapism. This site is educational in so many ways.

    rememberwhosewearingthetrousers: The word was so much more colorful in a pre-v!agra world…..

  109. chicagofinance says:

    afe says:
    February 13, 2009 at 6:00 pm
    Grim – Forgot to say “thank-you!” earlier for pulling these in the first place! You are awesome.

    afe: don’t say thank you; just run your hands through his chest hair…..

  110. Clotpoll says:

    From the Business Week article linked in #108:

    “Some from the industry denied a foreclosure problem existed, including Sandor E. Samuels, at the time chief legal officer of subprime giant Countrywide Financial. They vowed to continue selling loans with enticing introductory rates as well as those requiring minimal evidence of borrowers’ income. “We are going to keep making these loans until the last second they are legal,” Samuels later told a fellow participant.”

    Why should this person not be executed? Line this guy and a few bank CEOs up against a wall, whack ’em on TV…and we’ll start fixing things in a jiffy.

  111. chicagofinance says:

    Booooyaaa

    Lost….WTF are you?

    “But I have also been listening to Depeche Mode’s forthcoming album, ‘Sounds Of The Universe’ (which will be out on Mute in April). Depeche are absolutely not a guitar band but they have been almost singularly effective in taking many of the most primal and anthemic elements of the rock format and show and translating them to a world of electronica. I haven’t always been their biggest fan (at times the lyrics have been clunking, the voices robotically un-expressive, the imagery reeking in self mythologizing narcissism) but this album has got me pinned to my chair. Electronic bubbles of sound cascade around, spinning off on melodic tangents, while the beats drive straight through you, and the songs have a rich, bluesy, almost soulful flavour, with age and experience having slowly humanised Dave Gahan’s voice. It has the tone of an updated 21st century ‘Violator’, and is delivered with take-no-prisoners confidence.”

  112. Glen says:

    safeashouses @ 104:

    Nope, I’m with you on that

  113. afe says:

    cf- umm, ya think he would settle for a donation to the blog instead? :)

  114. Hard Place says:

    SAS – chelation therapy

    LOL!!!

    Where do u guys come up w/ this stuff? There are some serious comedians on this board. Bi & RE101 included.

  115. safeashouses says:

    SAS,

    Chelation therapy was something else I had to google.

    I’m sure there’s a good story behind that one.

  116. sas says:

    “Where do u guys come up w/ this stuff?”

    its called 30+ years maken sure capital & connections meet eachother.

    SAS

  117. rhymingrealtor says:

    Grim,

    Sorry to tease,its really not that interesting… we saw one on your comp killer list.

    KL

  118. skep-tic says:

    #91

    “skep: are we agreeing? It wasn’t until the 1970’s that Michigan realized it had a problem, and until the 1980’s that they even attempted to allieviate it. Too late….MSU & UMich have been sliding backward into mediocrity ever since…..still solid, but as you say insular….”

    ***********

    Yes, I guess we are agreeing. I thought you meant that there was something inherently messed up about Michigan/Detroit. Their condition is a result of complacency, which is not unique to them (the same problem exists in the country as a whole, though maybe to a lesser degree).

    Only point I disagree with you here is on UMich. At least w/r/t to the grad schools, it remains top tier in almost every category. IMO, it and Berkeley remain in a class by themselves in terms of state universities. Although given the financial condition of their states, one would think they should seriously consider privatizing at this point.

  119. Clotpoll says:

    sas (89)-

    Ever suspect one of your ex-wives of being the cause of your need for chelation?

    That’d be my first guess. If some other country’s spook wanted you out of the way, you’d be dead…in a much more conventional way.

  120. grim says:

    cf- umm, ya think he would settle for a donation to the blog instead? :)

    Much appreciated!

  121. grim says:

    Number 2!

    From MarketWatch:

    Riverside Bank of Cape Coral, Fla. fails, 11th of 2009

    The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation said late Friday Riverside Bank of the Gulf Coast, in Cape Coral, Fla., failed, making it the 11th bank failure of 2009, and the 36th of the current recession. TIB Bank of Naples, Fla., will assume all of Riverside’s deposits. As of Dec. 31, Riverside Bank had total assets of about $539 million and total deposits of $424 million. Nine branches of Riverside Bank will reopen as TIB Bank on Tuesday.

  122. grim says:

    Still early, we’ve got time for 3 or 4.

  123. sas says:

    Clot,

    we should meet one day for a drink.

    I was going to respond to your post, but I figured it would be best for an offline convo.

    :)
    SAS

  124. meter says:

    Thanks for taking the time to put this together. I know it’s a lot of work. I read this site every day and have for the past couple of years but I rarely post.

    I have to say, a good portion of these houses are outright sh*tboxes at any price, let’s be honest. The market is still *way* overvalued.

    This will never, ever happen, but I would like to see the NAR (or better yet some anti-NAR consumer group) put out asking vs. purchase stats just so that the public knows how out of line realtors are versus reality on the ground. That is the only metric that will spur realtors to stop these pie-in-the-sky pricing games.

  125. meter says:

    I probably should correct myself. The market is overpriced, not overvalued.

  126. sas says:

    meter,

    how about the sellers? You don’t think they share some responsibility?

    SAS

  127. meter says:

    I like modern architecture, but that Closter home reminds me of a Rustler Steakhouse (I’m showing my age).

  128. safeashouses says:

    #128 meter,

    Those houses are ugly. Another reason NJ gets laughed at.

  129. meter says:

    SAS, absolutely.

    But while the price is ultimately up to the seller, a good realtor won’t waste time with these kinds of games. If enough realtors didn’t encourage or work with these people, we’d have a much better-functioning housing market.

  130. sas says:

    meter,

    curious, what is your opinion on FSBO?

    SAS

  131. yikes says:

    Clotpoll says:
    February 12, 2009 at 3:29 pm

    I’ll have to check that one, John.

    But the girls on GG are all over 18 (this helps me feel better about my lecherous impulses) and have waistlines that are the circumference of a Twizzler.

    incorrect, Clot. little jenny humphrey may look older but she’s 16

  132. Clotpoll says:

    sas (127)-

    Sure. Love to. In a busy, public place with floor-to-ceiling windows. :)

  133. Clotpoll says:

    meter (128)-

    MLS systems have this information. All you have to do is ask.

  134. Clotpoll says:

    meter (128)-

    Sellers set asking prices. Realtors can either take the listings or reject them.

  135. Clotpoll says:

    yikes (135)-

    Whoa, dude. She ain’t my type. Serena’s more my speed.

  136. grim says:

    Bank Failure # 3

    Scary thing is it is still early, we might see four tonight.

    From MarketWatch:

    Illinois bank becomes 12th failure of the year

    Pittsfield, Ill.-based Corn Belt Bank and Trust Company was closed by regulators Friday, marking the 12th bank failure of 2009, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation said in a statement. The FDIC earlier Friday had announced the failure of Nebraska-based Sherman County Bank and Florida-based Riverside Bank of the Gulf Coast. Corn Belt Bank marks the 37th bank failure since the start of the credit crisis. Carlinville, Ill.-based Carlinville National Bank will assume Corn Belt Bank’s deposits, the FDIC said.

  137. grim says:

    bff omg

  138. BC Bob says:

    “curious, what is your opinion on FSBO?”

    SAS,

    Can’t find a chart on that stock. NYSE, Nasdaq, Pink Sheets?

  139. BC Bob says:

    “Pittsfield, Ill.-based Corn Belt Bank and Trust Company was closed by regulators”

    How do farmers now get financing to hedge, selling forwards against their silo?

    Clot,

    Where’s my silo?

  140. Clotpoll says:

    BC (143)-

    Your silo is in your mind. Making mental silage. That’s where all the best silos are.

  141. galgon says:

    Bank Failure #4
    Pinnacle Bank of Oregon, Beaverton, OR

    http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/banklist.html

  142. confused in nj says:

    The saddest part of the stimulous package is massive Taxpayer dollars allocated to the states, to prevent force reductions in Teachers, Police & Firemen. The Government is trying to immunize the Public Sector from the pain ocurring in the Private Sector, which can’t be done. The Federal Entitlement Programs are chunk change compared to the State aggregate Entitlement Programs. It shows that Congress doesn’t have a clue about the depth of our problems. All Public Workers need Salary & Benefit Reductions. Average Public Benefits cannot be greater then Average Private Benefits, or the system goes Tilt.

  143. yikes says:

    still way behind, but

    John says:
    February 12, 2009 at 4:09 pm

    The typical family owed $67,300 in debts in 2007, up from $60,700 in 2004. The big increase came from debt on second homes. The typical family that had a mortgage owed $107,000 on their primary residence. Those with credit card balances owed $3,000. The median installment debt, chiefly auto loans, was $13,000.

    that auto loans part is bad. but since i work from home, i often wonder if i’d want to get a nice car if i worked all the time.

  144. grim says:

    From the Star Ledger:

    Trump quits board that controls three Atlantic City casinos

    Real estate mogul Donald Trump and his daughter Ivanka are resigning from the board of directors of Trump Entertainment Resorts, the troubled casino company he once controlled.

    The company won a fourth extension Wednesday on restructuring $1.25 billion in debt, and some analysts have predicted it will file for bankruptcy protection if it doesn’t work out a deal with its bond holders.

  145. kettle1 says:

    SAS 87

    WTI vs Brent; reverse of the usual price relationship. analogous to table wine costing more than a good champagne?

    in terms of quality, yes. The official explanation that i have read is that cushing texas is landlocked and so is a harder market to access.

    I see it as more of a move away from american hegemony of the global markets

  146. yikes says:

    still_looking says:
    February 12, 2009 at 4:23 pm

    Which reminds me…. before my PTP runs out. I need advice on a nice powerful but not too heavy pistol. Advice? anyone? Bueller?

    sig sauer. better than the 9 mm the cops carry; one told me so the day i bought mine. i also advise getting hte crimson trace with it (that red laser that looks bad-ass).

  147. yikes says:

    james says:
    February 12, 2009 at 5:57 pm

    #329
    Parking your house sale profits in cash is a recipe for disaster. More so if you are sitting on cash for 2 years. Remember, the indebited benefit from hyperinflation while the middle class savers are wiped out.

    how do you know when hyperinflation is coming? how much are you talking about? 50k, 100k? 200k?

    if you’re not parking in cash, what are you doing to stay liquid?

  148. kettle1 says:

    confused,

    the state bailout by the FEDS doesnt solve anything, its no different then the moratorium on foreclosures, it just delays the inevitable for another few months

  149. kettle1 says:

    yikes,

    the bond markets and the EURJPY cross should give you an idea of where things are headed.

    or just hang around here. i am sure it will be called out on this blog before any mainstream source

  150. All Hype says:

    Take a deep breath and then look at this graph….

    http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/BOGNONBR

    We are going straight down the drain.

  151. sas says:

    “Sure. Love to. In a busy, public place with floor-to-ceiling windows”

    what? you wanna have a drink at a bank?

    ha ha
    SAS

  152. sas says:

    meter,

    i know there are knuckhead RE agents.
    I too have given much scorn.

    however, i believe RE agents have a valid & useful purpose. yes, the industry got tainted, and corporate NAR are schills.

    Monsanto is a terrible, explotative company… doesn’t that mean I am going to spit on the local farmer Joe? no.

    Give it some thought.

    also, FSBO gets people in more hot water than they think. I’ve seen many FSBO get screwed in the long term.

    just given my thoughts after my nightly Fall & Winter usual: warm milk & cognac.

    SAS

  153. sas says:

    4 banks fail in one night, yikes…

    SAS

  154. DISSIDENT HEHEHE says:

    This Stanford thing is going to be on par with Madoff. 10-15% annual returns on CD’s. Gimme a break:)

  155. sas says:

    “i also advise getting hte crimson trace with it (that red laser that looks bad-ass)”

    i don’t like the laser sighting on pistols. My experience, they are not accurate.

    yes, i like sigs.

    those dumb cops can keep there 9mm hard glock cafes..

    SAS

  156. Frank says:

    8 under contract this week in Hoboken. Look at the prices. Wow, no recession in this town. The RE boom continues in Hoboken.

    http://hudson.fnismls.com/publink/default.aspx?GUID=bfb29e4d-2ba3-49fe-a11b-4c31311f89cf&Report=Yes

  157. sas says:

    “bff omg”

    hugh? what this mean?

    must be a type-o or something

    SAS

  158. Frank says:

    Record average sales price in Jan 2009 in Hoboken, NJ
    You call this a recession?? I call it a housing boom.
    Where are the Wall St layoffs? Bonuses must have been incredible.

    http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pBISMjuVKyc6F0lyFKb9LdA&output=html&gid=0&single=true&range=a1:e27

  159. sas says:

    hi Frank,

    can you speak to this?
    thoughts..

    sqft Jan
    2009 510
    2008 567

    vs

    avg sale price Jan
    2009 587,314
    2008 561,772

    SAS

  160. Frank says:

    #164,
    Reading this blog you would think prices are down 70%, but they are not, that’s my point.

  161. chicagofinance says:

    Frank says:
    February 13, 2009 at 9:59 pm
    #164,
    Reading this blog you would think prices are down 70%, but they are not, that’s my point.

    Furts: Yeah, but reading this blog you would also think that there would be a Depeche Mode album being released in the near future….AND YOU WOULD BE CORRECT…

    More critiques….
    kickthepregnant (30 minutes ago) Show Hide 0 Marked as spam Reply | Spam …and I’ve just received a telephone call from rage-tastic evolutionary biologist Professor Richard Dawkins, in a state of some agitation, having ‘beef’ with a line in the chorus: “There’s something mystical in our genes.” ‘Dawkie’ was at pains to point out that “…there’s f-ck all mystical about our genes. We’re just apes with shoes and a sackful of irrational beliefs and motives. ” (He’s an angry little biped sometimes.)

  162. sas says:

    “Reading this blog you would think prices are down 70%, but they are not”

    things at times can be a little exaggerated in here.

    I would agree with that.

    SAS

  163. chicagofinance says:

    BC Bob says:
    February 13, 2009 at 7:58 pm
    Chi, Take a weekend trip.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Victors

    Bost: lookie here chumpie…are you taking a swipe at the original Monsters of the Midway?

  164. sas says:

    shytown (166)

    is it the warm milk & cognac or is it your post??

    SAS

  165. sas says:

    i cant follow.
    SAS

  166. chicagofinance says:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Victors

    Bost: they should play this fcuking song when the bankruptcy courts rip the UAW’s bull$hit contracts to shreds……

  167. chicagofinance says:

    sas says:
    February 13, 2009 at 10:12 pm
    shytown (166)
    is it the warm milk & cognac or is it your post?? SAS

    sas: I think the fine servicing you are receiving is wrecking your concentration…..

  168. BC Bob says:

    “the bond markets and the EURJPY cross should give you an idea of where things are headed.”

    Kettle,

    Mrs Wantanabe has now reversed and gone long. Eur/Jpy will not be a good indicator for a bit.

  169. Frank says:

    Did I tell you I love the Democratic party??? Love it.

    Say good bye to Wall St pay and send all the H1-B visa holders home, Wall St. is getting hit twice.

    WASHINGTON — The giant stimulus package includes a last-minute, little-noticed addition that restricts bonuses for top earners at firms receiving federal cash — including those that already received it — more severely than the 0bama administration’s previous pay limits.

    The most stringent pay restriction would bar any company receiving funds from paying top earners bonuses equal to more than one-third of their total annual compensation. That could severely crimp pay packages at big banks, where top officials commonly get relatively modest salaries but often huge bonuses.
    As word spread Friday about the new and retroactive limit — inserted by Democratic…

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123457165806186405.html?mod=yahoo_hs&ru=yahoo

  170. reinvestor101 says:

    You agree that things can get a little exaggerated????? You say this after trying to scare the shlt out of everybody with the talk of the black economy??

    sas says:
    February 13, 2009 at 10:10 pm
    “Reading this blog you would think prices are down 70%, but they are not”

    things at times can be a little exaggerated in here.

    I would agree with that.

    SAS

  171. yikes says:

    this 20/20 report (right now) on Appalachia will make just about everyone on this board feel good.

    except that racist frank.
    and maybe bi.

  172. Frank says:

    racist frank??? What did I say now??

  173. nj ecapee says:

    Firemen at Clifton house find live grenades

    Emergency workers clearing the scene of an attic fire at a Clifton home were swiftly evacuated after workers identified live hand grenades and other weapons in the house, authorities said.

    http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2009/02/firemen_clearing_clifton_house.html

  174. Qwerty says:

    On music, here’s a surprisingly familiar song, from a surprising place, that’s surprisingly good:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QpX-kndqHnE&fmt=18

    Surprisingly.

  175. Qwerty says:

    And another, this one from the UK, over 41 million views:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1k08yxu57NA&fmt=18

  176. BC Bob says:

    “are you taking a swipe at the original Monsters of the Midway?”

    Chi,

    Speaking of, chumps and monsters. You hit the target, bulls-eye. The monsters on 30 S. Wacker Drive have been kicking the sheet out of the masters on WS. Total blow out. How’s that for 2nd class talent?

  177. Frank says:

    Wall St bonuses in the future = $0.0.

    “Under the bill, bonuses could be paid only in restricted stock, which recipients couldn’t cash in until the Treasury is repaid.”

  178. chicagofinance says:

    BC Bob says:
    February 13, 2009 at 10:39 pm
    “are you taking a swipe at the original Monsters of the Midway?” Chi,
    Speaking of, chumps and monsters. You hit the target, bulls-eye. The monsters on 30 S. Wacker Drive have been kicking the sheet out of the masters on WS. Total blow out. How’s that for 2nd class talent?

    Bost: those idiotic 3-cylinder scumbags with the investment strategy of a convent? I would rather wipe my a$$ with sandpaper than deal with those fools.

  179. chicagofinance says:

    Qwerty says:
    February 13, 2009 at 10:33 pm
    On music, here’s a surprisingly familiar song, from a surprising place, that’s surprisingly good:

    Q-man: he ripped off Chris Cornell….

  180. kettle1 says:

    Re 178

    Firemen at Clifton house find live grenades

    anyone call grim and make sure he is OK!?!?!?

  181. Hobokenite says:

    I think I saw Frank’s car today. There was a bumper sticker on it that said “What recessions? I just hired a union electrician.”

  182. Hobokenite says:

    “8 under contract this week in Hoboken. Look at the prices. Wow, no recession in this town. The RE boom continues in Hoboken.”

    Frank, did you happen to notice that those are list price? Please come back and post the results with final selling price.

  183. Happy Camper says:

    WSt will find a way around the bonus issue.

    That’s their job.

    HC

  184. Hobokenite says:

    Frank,

    What’s the avg. $/sf for the units that closed this week?

    http://hudson.fnismls.com/publink/default.aspx?GUID=97c9f7cd-7243-4387-9f6b-a22dd6b054b7&Report=Yes

  185. kettle1 says:

    who wants to talk prison reform???

    i say this group should be our model. they appear to be quite prolific….

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RXbfCQ6eV_I&feature=related

  186. Qwerty says:

    kettle, how does one even process that visual? Never happen in a US prison, that’s for sure!

  187. kettle1 says:

    qwerty,

    one of my goals before i die. teach my self to do this

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QjA5faZF1A8

  188. kettle1 says:

    should probably learn soon rather then later as i will certainly need some dexterity

  189. Qwerty says:

    Those dancing inmates need a Boss Keane:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LkI9csyCZhs

  190. me@work says:

    151 yikes…

    [me, salivating]

    ’nuff said.

    sl

  191. me@work says:

    All Hype,

    We are looking to rent (so it seems) as buying ain’t seeming like a real option right now…

    We need a PT, flexible sitter for him at some point.

    When? tell me. When? are we getting together?? How ’bout dinner next week?

    sl

  192. me@work says:

    grim,

    you can have some of my Advil…

    [promises to strictly avoid the chest hair comments….I think chifi has a man-crush ;)

    sl

  193. me@work says:

    Clot….

    Oh, have *I* a story for you regarding numbskull teachers – in this case a summer school Chemistry teacher….

    I am sooooo on the same page as you….

    remind me, wouldja?

    sl

  194. me@work says:

    chifi,

    You should see how we fix priapism…

    the look? :0

    [MUAhahahahahahahahahahhaha…]

    sl

  195. me@work says:

    Happy F’ing Valentine’s Day everyone!

    sl

  196. Sean says:

    Just came back from a dinner party in NYC, allot of talk about getting out of expensive condos and older expensive Coops and renting for a while. My relative dropped the price on his place 20% from 1 mil to 800k and still no bites.

    Gonna be a big real estate bust in NYC.

  197. Hobokenite says:

    “My relative dropped the price on his place 20% from 1 mil to 800k and still no bites.”

    Clearly the market is not functioning. I think the Fed should step in and start guaranteeing people against losses if they buy NYC real estate.

  198. reinvestor101 says:

    Peter Schiff is an idiot. I don’t know why they even let him on TV, besides, he lost money for his clients. He is arrogant and disrepectful

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zz_yw0kq3MM&feature=related

  199. Clotpoll says:

    I saw this guy on Moyers last night. Hoo boy, does he get it! He describes the current state of affairs as an oligarchy of bankers, with more power than O. He also fears that Geithner, et al have no stomach for taking them on.

    This is his blog. I woke up @ 5:30 to start reading pieces. Great stuff here:

    http://baselinescenario.com/

  200. Clotpoll says:

    If you have time, check out the link to the podcast in this post from Baseline Scenario.

    I don’t feel like a whack job now. This is an MIT professor using the bank robbery analogy.

    http://baselinescenario.com/2009/02/12/robbery-note-from-the-banking-oligarchs-this-morning/

  201. Clotpoll says:

    Podcast in which Simon Johnson confronts Deutsche Bank analyst on his “bank robbery note”:

    http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/planet_money_podcast/

  202. lostinny says:

    115 Chifi
    Where is that review from?

  203. Clotpoll says:

    tard (206)-

    From that clip, it appears that Art Laffer is the arrogant and disrespectful one. As recent events have proved, Laffer was also dead wrong.

    It is amusing to watch you cling to your delusions. Please continue to entertain us, as you inject a sorely-needed degree of levity here.

  204. safeashouses says:

    #206 re101,

    Are you the dude in the video with the Cousin It hairstyle?

  205. lostinny says:

    Donation buttons make me feel all warm and fuzzy inside.

  206. willwork4beer says:

    Grim,

    Many thanks for the February comp killers. Great job as always

    As for me, it looks like the hinterlands report is on hiatus. I’ve lost my GSMLS access as my part-time RE agent has gone back to being a full-time soccer mom…

    I would gladly pay GSMLS’s fee for access, but not being an agent, they won’t allow it.

  207. grim says:

    Donation buttons make me feel all warm and fuzzy inside.

    Thanks lost!

  208. Cindy says:

    (190) Is it just me or did anyone else envision bankers in orange jump suits dancing to “Money, money, money – money…?”

  209. Clotpoll says:

    No sports promotion night will ever top this one:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o-fEtF9NKfc

  210. lostinny says:

    216 Grim
    Sorry it can’t be more. I have to save some for filing my business license this week.

  211. grim says:

    Be sure to pick up a copy of the NY Times this Sunday!

  212. safeashouses says:

    #220 grim,

    Anyone we know in it?

  213. yome says:

    Feb. 14 (Bloomberg) — The costliest item in the economic stimulus plan passed by Congress is a tax credit of up to $400 for individuals earning less than $75,000 year.

    Married couples earning less than $150,000 could claim a benefit of up to $800 under the provision, which has a price tag of $116 billion over 10 years, according to the congressional Joint Committee on Taxation.

    The Senate approved the $787 billion stimulus plan 60 to 38 last night. Hours earlier, the House passed the plan 246 to 183. The package goes to President Barack Obama for his signature, providing the first major legislative victory of his administration.

    The plan includes $212 billion in tax cuts and $575 billion in spending that Obama says will create or save 3.5 million jobs.

    Infrastructure construction makes up a large part of the bill’s spending provisions, including $29 billion for highways, $17.7 billion for mass transit and rail and $18.8 billion for clean water and flood control projects.

    The plan provides $87 billion for Medicaid, the health insurance program for the poor. It contains $39 billion for unemployed workers in families, including provisions extending jobless benefits for 20 additional weeks in most states and 33 additional weeks in states with high unemployment rates. It also increases weekly benefits by $25.

    The bill spends $25 billion to provide subsidies to help jobless workers keep their health benefits by paying 65 percent of their premiums for nine months for married couples who earn less than $250,000.

    Senior Citizens

    The bill authorizes a one-time $250 payment for senior citizens, disabled veterans and disabled people living on Social Security benefits.

    The measure’s tax-related portions include a $70 billion reduction in the alternative-minimum tax this year that would spare more than 24 million households from paying the levy. The provision would waive the AMT on so-called private-activity bonds, a type of municipal bond used to fund airport runways, housing projects, sewage-treatment plants and other facilities that benefit the public but aren’t explicitly city-run endeavors.

    The bill allows businesses to write off the cost of equipment purchases more quickly. Another provision eases tax burdens on companies that restructure debt without entering bankruptcy.

    The legislation repeals a tax rule issued by the Internal Revenue Service last September that made banks’ losses more valuable as tax deductions for those banks acquiring other financial institutions.

    Earned Income Tax Credit

    The earned income tax credit, a benefit for the working poor, would be expanded. And families who don’t earn enough to pay income tax would be eligible to claim the $1,000 child credit.

    For homebuyers, the bill increases the value of a tax credit enacted last year by $500, to $8,000, and waives a requirement that the break be repaid over a 15-year period. The credit would still be limited to couples with income of less than $150,000 and to first-time buyers.

    Buyers of new cars will be able to deduct the sales tax on the purchase, regardless of whether they itemize deductions.

    The legislation consolidates tax incentives for higher education into a $2,500 credit that could be claimed by most working families. And it makes college-related book and computer purchases eligible for the write-off for the first time.

    Other tax breaks for individuals include a waiver of taxes on the first $2,400 of unemployment benefits.

    Wage Tax Credit

    For businesses, the bill provides a 40 percent tax credit for the first $6,000 of wages paid to military veterans and “disconnected” youths, those who haven’t had regular employment or attended school in the past six months.

    It also allows owners of small businesses to exclude 75 percent of profits from capital gains taxes, provided they owned the company for at least five years.

    Among other spending measures, state and local governments will get $53.6 billion to prevent cuts in education services and for school renovations. The measure allocates $15.6 billion to increase higher education Pell grants by up to $500.

    Other spending includes $19 billion for health-care technology programs, $20 billion to increase food stamp benefits, $4 billion for state and local law enforcement agencies and $4 billion to help train unemployed workers.

    Financial companies that get money from the Federal Reserve and government rescue funds will face stricter rules for hiring foreign workers under the H-1B visa program. The visas are sought by U.S. businesses for highly trained overseas workers.

    The provision requires companies that want to apply for a visa on behalf of a foreign worker not to dismiss employees in similar positions 90 days before and 90 days after requesting the visa. The companies also will have to prove they attempted to recruit a U.S. worker before requesting the visa.

    The plan retains “Buy American” provisions for material used in construction projects it funds, though such rules cannot be implemented in a way that violates international trade agreements.

  214. grim says:

    From the WSJ:

    Fed Chief’s Boyhood Home Is Sold After Foreclosure

    DILLON, S.C. — Travis Jackson walks through his modest ranch house, admiring the kitchen’s built-in spice rack and the red-oak floors. He draws back the curtains, and sunlight illuminates the pride on his face.

    The young banker just bought Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s childhood home at a foreclosure sale.

    “This is where it all happened,” marvels Mr. Jackson, a 27-year-old loan officer at First Citizens Bancorp, which is down the street from the old Bernanke place. “Kind of a surreal feeling, isn’t it?”

    Mr. Bernanke’s family sold the property more than a decade ago. It ended up on the block late last year after its former owners fell behind on their mortgage payments.

    In an interview, Mr. Bernanke declined to speak publicly about the fate of his hometown or boyhood home, which is set amid tall, scraggly pines on East Jefferson St. “We believe that getting the credit markets going, getting banks lending again, increasing the demand for all products — including those made in Dillon — are part of economic recovery,” he said. “That’s what the Fed’s trying to do.”

    Mr. Bernanke’s grandfather Jonas, a pharmacist, opened Jay Bee Drug Co. on Main St. in 1941. His father, Philip, and uncle, Mortimer, eventually bought the drug store and became admired figures in the community, famous for their personal touch with customers.

  215. grim says:

    From the Record:

    Edgewater seeks new school to ease imminent overcrowding

    The school district will be so crowded by the 2112-13 academic year that a new school is necessary, district officials have told residents.

    But a new school will cost homeowners hundreds of dollars more in additional taxes for the next 30 years, they said at a public forum last night at the Eleanor Van Gelder school.

    The school, which houses about 492 children in pre-kindergarten through sixth grade, is already overcrowded, schools Superintendent Ted Blumstein told about 35 residents at the meeting. A language-arts room became a classroom this year, and the science lab will turn into a second-grade classroom next year, he said.

    “These are tough economic times,” Blumstein said. “But we still have to house these students.”

    Building a new school would be “the most economical way” to deal with the expected increase in student population, he said.

    That would add $307 to school taxes for a taxpayer with a home assessed at the borough average of $573,000, Blumstein said.

  216. DISSIDENT HEHEHE says:

    Clot,

    Just watched the interview. Great stuff. Hahaha, of course Timmay won’t be taking any of the suggestions which makes me more than comfortable shorting this country down the sh*tter.

  217. grim says:

    From the APP:

    Most New Jersey residents will see stimulus money

    Nearly all of the Garden State’s 8.5 million residents are expected to see a direct impact from the proposed $787 billion economic stimulus approved by Congress on Friday.

    “First and foremost, this package is going to help start creating and saving jobs in our state,” said U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez, D-New Jersey. “Jobs are the most essential piece of any family’s economic situation, and that’s the main focus of this package.”

    According to Gov. Jon S. Corzine, more than half of New Jersey residents will see a
    $400-per-worker credit; couples would receive $800. The credit applies to those with incomes under $75,000, and the median income in New Jersey is $68,000, Corzine said.

    Officials estimate it would mean about $13 a week more in people’s paychecks this year. Next year, the measure could yield workers about $8 a week.

    Critics say that’s unlikely to do much to boost consumption.

    The stimulus will also mean an extra $100 a month in unemployment insurance for 731,000 out-of-work New Jersayans; 148,000 laid-off workers will also qualify for extended unemployment benefits, according to the National Employment Law Project.

  218. grim says:

    $8 a week?

    We’ll be lucky if that covers the 2009/2010 property tax increases across the state.

  219. ithink ithink says:

    #229
    isnt that a beatles song?

  220. safeashouses says:

    #228

    Am I reading that post right? Do we have 731,000 or 879,000 people on unemployment? That’s out of a population, not workforce, but population of 8.5 million.

    http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/34000.html shows 36% of us are under 18 or over 35.

    Out of a potential workforce of 5 million, are we already approaching 20% unemployment levels?

  221. safeashouses says:

    #231 should be “18 or over 65

  222. safeashouses says:

    #223 grim,

    Congrats on the ink.

  223. DISSIDENT HEHEHE says:

    Hey $8 = 1 pack of smokes; or 2 24 oz Old English or a cheap six pack; or one days lunch; or 8 lottery tickets….O knows what he’s doing

  224. Clotpoll says:

    HE (227)-

    Johnson said on Moyers last night that he pretty much thinks Geithner is a tool of the bankers and that he’ll lay down and let them run roughshod.

    The only decision I have to make this week is: do I dump SKF and “step up” to FAZ?

  225. sas says:

    congrats grim on the press covergae.

    great, last thing I need is NYT hits following my handle.. ha ha.

    but in the article, and perhaps i missed it, it seemed alot of focus on the RE cartel, no mention or little of it, to the dillusional sellers.

    SAS

  226. ithink ithink says:

    & yet, oil is under $40…

    N.J. gasoline prices head toward $2 a gallon, report says

    All those worried about protectionism need to realize we HAVE been protectionists too long. Look at the financials, the autos, & for quite some time, the refiners. Soylent Ponzi is us.

    When I see talk of riots & bunkers on here, I think, meh, there’s no anima there. but maybe the zeitgeist will change now that we’re stimulating ourselves.

  227. sas says:

    “who wants to talk prison reform?”

    to me, its not so much the physical prisons, but the silly rules that put you in there.

    #1 example, the war on drugs.
    total joke, and meant to be illegal so the govt keep away any competition.

    govt ships it in, and funnels money to wall st, or firearm sales.

    and you cops think your cool busting a kid with a bag of weed, while the system you work for ships in TONs of it.

    lol
    go back to sticken your butt out on 78 and write tkts to people doing 68 in the 65 zone.

    DSD

  228. sas says:

    opps, signed my name wrong:

    SAS

  229. sas says:

    oh yeah, money is also funneled to hollywood to glamorize or make the drugs seem “rebelious”

    some of your favorite movies and been funded by such operations.
    lol
    they even tell you in the credits.

    SAS

  230. Stu says:

    Grim,

    Our prop taxes go up about $800 per year. Better make that number $16 per week, just to break even. And where is that money coming from? That’s right…your paying yourself. I love stimulus!

  231. Outofstater says:

    #223 “motivated by spite” – God the arrogance of these people! Speak the truth and be damned as a wannabe. Oh well, somebody has to be the Greek chorus in this tragedy.

  232. Clotpoll says:

    sas (240)-

    Addicted population = controllable population

    Just another part of the gubmint conspiracy against us.

  233. Clotpoll says:

    stater (242)-

    Wait ’til that cow is eating from a dumpster. Coming soon to Short Hills.

  234. safeashouses says:

    #209 clot

    I loved the theme song to MI playing right off B.O.’s sound byte.

    Brought tears to these dry eyes.

  235. ithink ithink says:

    yeah, it’s called bunny ears.

    Clotpoll says:
    February 14, 2009 at 9:05 am
    sas (240)-

    Addicted population = controllable population

  236. Cindy says:

    (223) Grim – I had to google “gimlet-eyed” to see if it was a derogatory term as in “currently provides “gimlet-eyed” market commentary ..

    Gimlet-eyed – sharp-sighted, having keen vision…

    So it was a compliment! Congratulations.

  237. sas says:

    “Addicted population = controllable population”

    someone is going to be your drug dealer, whether is they govt black economy selling “illegal drugs”

    or

    The govt/FDA approved legal drugs.
    pro_zac, pax_el, am_bien

    and if your video game brain dead kid drinks too much Hg, HFCS sodas at schools and gets a little jump, they want to put him on Methylphenidates.

    health & govt institutions have become part of the problem rather than the solution.

    but don’t worry, omama will save you.

    SAS

  238. Clotpoll says:

    sas-

    We should have that drink. And, not at a bank. :)

  239. sas says:

    “Addicted population = controllable population”

    Drug laws:
    also provides a prison population, to a prison that is more than likely private owned (again wall st).

    then, the prisoners are forced to work for 10 cents an hour, if they say no, bad behavior and will serve more time, get the heck beat out of them, of solitary.

    btw: if you look at the prisons,large % are black men. if you think slavery had been abolished in this country, hark..
    you bad wrong, it just has a different form.

    and where does the drugs get funneled to the most, the black communities.

    i wish MLK was still alive.
    lord knows, we need him now more than ever.

    I remember 1968 pretty well. That was one hell of a year.

    SAS

  240. afe says:

    “We didn’t cut the price because the market is bad,” Ms. Chapman said. “My client is getting married, and she really wants to sell.”

    This excuse reminds me of a couple who we met at their open house in ’06 for a house they bought in 1997 for $160k (Selling for 400k). We always like to ask why someone is selling. Whether they tell the truth or not is a different matter – but I get a pretty good sense when someone is lying their a** off. They told us they were moving to Matawan when in reality they moved into a million dollar home in Marlboro. I always wonder how they fared buying at the top of the market.

  241. Rich says:

    Cedar Grove property was stolen. That guy is going to make a fortune after the panic. That property can be subdivided into several lots.

  242. Pat says:

    gimlet…

    I thought the writer was disclosing a secret gin addiction.

    “Gimlet-eyed” sounds like something you’d call the tottering, half-asleep drunk who leans on you at the bar at 3 a.m. and slurrs out a love song.

  243. Rich says:

    Fortunes will be made in the next 10 years.

  244. nw says:

    Clotpoll says:
    February 14, 2009 at 7:54 am

    No sports promotion night will ever top this one:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o-fEtF9NKfc

    This one has to be a close second:

    10 cent beer night

  245. Pat says:

    I will now proceed to call grim “Grimlet” in my beautiful mind forever.

  246. Rich says:

    Yeah, I know japans lost decade. This is the United States. Change happens first in the USA.

  247. afe says:

    Pat – u should save that moniker for his kid tho’. Or I guess if you are older than him, you could get away with it like an older sister teasing him! ;)

  248. 3b says:

    #253 Rich:That guy is going to make a fortune after the panic.

    Yeah,in about 15 to 20 years from now.

  249. grim says:

    Rich,

    Fortunes are made and lost every day. But you know which ones impress me? The ones quietly made, especially when they are countercyclical and in unexpected places. These are the folks with exceptional business accumen and superior vision. The fortunes made by simply riding the market? Might as well be dumb luck. Don’t get me wrong, a fortune is a fortune and I’m not downplaying that. But those who made it through chance aren’t likely to repeat that feat once those fortunes are lost.

    That said, many real estate fortunes will be lost over the next few years.

  250. stan says:

    will work-

    it was great while it lasted. Thanks for all of you efforts!

  251. safeashouses says:

    #259 njrebear

    Unbelievable. Former CFOs and hobbyists from the big banks are O’s top advisors and Geithner’s Chief of Staff.

    And to answer Moyer’s question, yes we are chumps.

    I think the only change I’m going to see is what’s stuck in my couch.

    Why can’t we get someone like Simon Johnson for Sec of Tres?

  252. meter says:

    @ 157

    SAS,

    Again, agree with you. FSBO can be a dangerous game, but I think the vast majority of people in NJ selling their homes are still using realtors. And though the seller ultimately sets the price, the realtor is supposed to provide accurate comps AND guide the seller as to what his/her listing price ought to be.

    Without hard evidence (other than the spread between asking/selling) I would say that too often realtors are encouraging or placating sellers to list extremely high, out of line with market reality. Knowing the bid/ask spread, as in other markets, is useful information. Per Clot’s comment (137), I didn’t know this info is readily available.

  253. Rich says:

    The market is in a panic stage. Unless we become a 3rd world country. A property bought at 1991 levels, there is instant equity as soon as the market stabalizes.

  254. meter says:

    Grim, that NYT article portrays you as a hacker!

  255. CAIBC says:

    i was just thinking that, grim…..dont want to see a bounty on you (paid by the NAR) for hacking into the mls site!

    is this true?

    i can already some see the short hills realtors putting a hit on that vulture guy!!! i have met some of them and wouldnt put it past them!!!!

  256. BC Bob says:

    “The credit applies to those with incomes under $75,000, and the median income in New Jersey is $68,000, Corzine said.”

    And how does the median income support an overpriced pos with 4 walls and a roof? Oh, and encumbered with property taxes that are thru the same sh*tty roof? Say hello to 1997.

  257. Rich says:

    Cedar Grove sale very fishy. Small ranch a couple of hundred feet away just sold in Dec 08 for 750,000 on a 1/3 of an acre. Realtor did not do there job, or some people walking away with cash under the table and they stole the bank.

  258. BC Bob says:

    “Johnson said on Moyers last night that he pretty much thinks Geithner is a tool of the bankers and that he’ll lay down and let them run roughshod.”

    Clot,

    If he lasts, he’ll go down in history as one of the worst Treas Sec’s ever. When O realizes that his agenda is failing, and the economy is deteriorating further, Timmy will be the fall guy. Just a puppet for his former primary dealers.

  259. Clotpoll says:

    meter (264)-

    The first thing the manager of the first RE office I ever worked in told me on Day 1:

    “You can’t get a price reduction on a listing you don’t have. Take the listing, sweetie.”

  260. Sean says:

    Happy Valentines Day all of you njrerport doomers, just found out today that my wife is pregnant.

    I may have to buy a house real soon!

  261. Clotpoll says:

    BC (270)-

    By the time O dumps Geithner, it will be way too late. And then, currency, bills, bonds and notes won’t matter as much as pieces of eight.

  262. Clotpoll says:

    Sean (272)-

    Congrats! Teach that kid to be as snarky as you. :)

  263. Clotpoll says:

    Cindy (252)-

    Good stuff. I cannot come up with a limerick on this guy tht doesn’t involve a four-letter word and the word “execution”.

  264. BC Bob says:

    “Yeah, I know japans lost decade. This is the United States. Change happens first in the USA.”

    A 10 year flat stock market? Kind of Japanese to me?

    Remember, back in 1990 Japan had a positive current account balance, built up reserves and a population which could draw on high savings. Presently, compare our fiscal hell hole; zero savings [in the process of changing], a neg current account balance and exploding supply. Comparing our s*it hole to Japan is like comparing Roseaane Barr to Giselle. One would not be considered foolish to assume that a Japan outcome may be our best hope.

    BC Bob san

  265. jamil says:

    “Wall St bonuses in the future = $0.0.”

    Frank, this is BS. The bill is full of loopholes and if there is one thing WS bigshots know, it is to use those loopholes. Heck, they donated billions for Charlie Rangel, Chris Dodd and The Messiah so they will be fine.

    First, the restrictions are for undefined “senior execs” only and for firms that got undefined “extraordinary” help from the government. WS can just define that everybody below CEO is mid-level exec, and also, the help was not extraordinary.

    Besides, these restrictions are just encouraging CEOs to take extraordinary risks: If they succeed, they will get massive bonuses (=restricted stock). If they fail, no harm done.

  266. BC Bob says:

    “Unless we become a 3rd world country.”

    Rich,

    You certainly are entertaining today. Maybe you have been in a coma. We have reached 3rd world status. Study up on Argentina.

  267. JBJB says:

    Sean

    Congrats, that is excellent news. However, babies do just fine in rentals as many here can attest to.

  268. NJCoast says:

    Hey Hacker Grimlet-

    So you’re the reason I have to answer stupid questions like what is my paternal grandmothers name before I can log onto the Monmouth MLS. I thought they were on to me giving out my password.

    NYTimes- you’re movin’ on up. Congrats.

  269. NJCoast says:

    Hey Hacker Grimlet-

    So you’re the reason I have to answer stupid questions like what is my paternal grandmothers name before I can log onto the Monmouth MLS. I thought they were on to me giving out my password.

    NYTimes- you’re movin’ on up. Congrats.

  270. NJCoast says:

    Sorry for the double post

  271. JBJB says:

    BC [268]

    Is it just me, or is there a large group of people who don’t even acknowledge that NJ real estate taxes are completely out of control with no end in sight? This is a major reason why people will not purchase a home in NJ. This group includes politicians, especially Corslime, real estate agents, reporters, a majority of NJ voters, economists, academics, etc. Do these people realize that buying a house in NJ is to sign yourself up to be fleeced nonstop for the duration that you own your home? I have still yet to hear one person explain why NJ real estate taxes are so high comparatively with other parts of the country. Our services are worse, our schools are not any better, our infrastructure sucks. It’s flat out highway robbery to support a bloated, crumbling, unsustainable welfare state. I guess I answered my own question.

  272. Rich says:

    BC Bob
    Your pushing the envelope. Do you really beleive we are a 3rd world country?
    I cannot get over the sale in cedar grove. If I had known they were willing to go that low, I would have purchased it. I spoke to listing agent 6mos ago, I was mentioning high 1’s, she said don’t bother. Very fishy sale. I am glad I check this site daily for news. You guys can be informative. I will bet the local city cousel slash builder stole this property.

  273. Rich says:

    Does anyone know the name of purchaser?

  274. Rich says:

    Does anyone know the buyers agents name and office?

  275. lostinny says:

    272 Sean
    Congrats! What a happy VDay for you.

  276. Outofstater says:

    Sean – Congratulations! Great news!!

  277. Rich says:

    That house would cost 1.0 – 1.25 to build today.

  278. Barbara says:

    283.
    If by welfare state you mean job guarantees to state employees, then I agree. But what it isn’t about is simple handout for deadbeats, its really about a bloated payroll on all levels, municipal, county and state. If you’ve lived in NJ for most of your life and take stock, you will probably come to the conclusion that most families that you’ve known have at least one income out of two coming from these sources. Politically, prop taxes aren’t discussed to the degree that you and I think they ought for the simple reason that many new jersey families depend on those high taxes for their lively hoods. Its culturally embedded and as I have said before, eventually the state will be comprised of govt workers swapping tax dollars with one another.
    Teachers, sanitation, police, city clerks, school administration, road crews, fire, emts, civil engineers, trenton, etc etc. Think about how many people you know pulling a paycheck from govt sources.

  279. BC Bob says:

    “Do you really beleive we are a 3rd world country?”

    Rich,

    Just look at our exploding treas auctions. More that 50% of our treas are bought from outside our borders. Given the fact that they are all in shambles, how confident should one be regarding future auctions. China is still present with a twist. They are moving out, and continue to do so, of long term sec and into bills and s/t notes. No reports from O and Timmy regarding this? China is nobody’s dummy. This reallocation protects them from inflation and currency debasement risks. In addition to this, they don’t have to sell one single treas sec. Suppose they become less active. Who picks up the slack? Europe, they are imploding at the seams. Russia? SWF? Is the only solution to print and monetize debt.

    We are teetering on the brink of a deep black hole. To counteract this, we are relying on a Pres, a VP and a Treas sec that have a combined ZERO years of exp within the private sector. Comforting? Illusions that the govt will pull us out of this mess are ludicrous. 99% hope that the govt will solve this dilemma. 1% fear the long term implications of this powerless attempt. My *ss is parked on that 1% bench. Beware of untintended consequences.

  280. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Sean congrats! But as JBJB said no reason to run out & buy a house.

  281. chicagofinance says:

    Clotpoll says:
    February 14, 2009 at 6:45 am
    I don’t feel like a whack job now.

    clot: The first step to recovery is to admit you have a problem. GET BACK ON THE MEDS RIGHT NOW.

  282. Rich says:

    Do you really think we are going to pay back those notes back? The US, Canada and all central america will become one union, with a new currency. Dollar devalued, payed back by new currency, maybey Amero? That is history always repeating. Same westerm empire, different names. We always end up draining the east.

  283. chicagofinance says:

    me@work says:
    February 14, 2009 at 2:13 am
    chifi, You should see how we fix priapism… the look? :0
    [MUAhahahahahahahahahahhaha…] sl

    DO NOT SEE THIS MOVIE. IT IS NOWHERE NEAR AS FUNNY AS IT LOOKS.

    SOME SALTY LANGUAGE IN HERE….

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mujzsr-MEMI&feature=related

  284. Rich says:

    When th US sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold. Do other countries really have a choice? The banks are taking short sales, so will the people holding our notes. What choice do they have? China wants to keep people working or they just stay behind there great wall again.

  285. meter says:

    @290

    Amen.

  286. sas says:

    “my wife is pregnant”

    sure its your? :P
    ha ha kidding.

    congrats
    SAS

  287. sas says:

    “Think about how many people you know pulling a paycheck from govt sources”

    more reasons as to why you will never get rid of the black econonmy.

    everybody wants there govt check.

    SAS

  288. chicagofinance says:

    Clotpoll says:
    February 14, 2009 at 7:54 am
    No sports promotion night will ever top this one:

    clot: Not even LUIS POLONIA night at Yankee Stadium…”Every girl under 16 gets a free hot dog.”

  289. chicagofinance says:

    grim says:
    February 14, 2009 at 8:11 am
    From the NYT:

    You fool….now we get trolls 10x around here….everyone, sharpen your knives….

  290. JBJB says:

    job guarantees to state employees = simple handout for deadbeats

    These are pretty much the same thing in my book.

    As I said, and I think you pointed out, this is an unsustainable model. Until people realize this NJ will continue to be the laughing stock of the country and a prime example of how exactly not to do it.

  291. grim says:

    i was just thinking that, grim…..dont want to see a bounty on you (paid by the NAR) for hacking into the mls site!

    is this true?

    Hacked the site? No, no, it was nothing like that at all. Some of the details were lost in the translation.

  292. Barbara says:

    JBJB,
    New Jersey is a scary as F state. It is run like a deep south small town. We have towns run and essentially owned by a small group of families that feel that it is their turf and will justify its corruption with unflinching self righteous indignation. Its THEIRS, because they GOT THERE FIRST. When you have contact with these people, you understand that they are in many ways, barely American in their most basic beliefs and values.
    And don’t kid yourself, I’m not talking about the Sopranos here. None of that drama.

  293. chicagofinance says:

    JBJB says:
    February 14, 2009 at 12:11 pm
    BC [268] Is it just me, or is there a large group of people who don’t even acknowledge that NJ real estate taxes are completely out of control with no end in sight? This is a major reason why people will not purchase a home in NJ.

    JBJB: The main group to whom you refer are sellers of real estate. Such an economic burden must be objectively reflected in real estate prices and incomes, and it is not. All things being equal, incomes must be higher or else home prices must be lower to compensate.

  294. chicagofinance says:

    lostinny says:
    February 14, 2009 at 7:11 am
    115 Chifi
    Where is that review from?

    lost: here, but the link looks busted
    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/neil_mccormick/blog/2009/02/13/u2_depeche_mode_kasabian_rocks_not_dead_yet

  295. Rich says:

    It is starting already.
    Do they have a choice?

    Overnight, the U.S. Congress adopted a $787-billion economic rescue plan that includes tens of billions of dollars for public building projects, with conditions including that they use U.S. steel and other U.S.-made goods.

    The G7 statement said stabilizing the economy and financial markets was paramount right now, meaning that all had to work together and use all possible policy options to maximum collective effect.

  296. still_looking says:

    off to work for me :(

    Happy VD!

    sl

  297. cobbler says:

    [228], [231]. Re. the number of unemployed. The Gov counted everyone who is expected to be getting unemployment payment at any time through 2009. In good years, the number was about 400K, in 2009 will be almost double (731K). The 148K is the number of people expected to stay on the rolls for more than 26 weeks. From the way things are looking right now, 148K is sort of low – I think will be more like 200-250K (abot 1/3rd of the total unemployed).

  298. yikes says:

    Grim, how would you assess the potential of hyper-inflation?

  299. lostinny says:

    310 SL
    Let us know how many lover’s quarrels lead to a visit with you.

  300. Stu says:

    Insurance search is over. Current policy w/ High Point (formerly Prudential) was $1640/year. Went with Geico for $998/year. Didn’t think in a million years that Geico would be the lowest. Second closest was Liberty Mutual at $1100. Highest quotes were around $1500.

    The video poker gods in AC were not on my side yesterday. We’ll see if the comp I earned covers my losses. Should be close (I hope). Place was pretty empty as usual.

    Congrats Sean!

  301. BC Bob says:

    295,

    3 years ago I stated that we were headed down the path of the Amero. However, Canada and Mexico. Central America? As in Guatemela, Nicaragua, Honduras? That’s funnier than WS saving NNJ RE. Then again, it would be an easy trasition, 3rd world countries, not the Canucks, tied at the hip.

    Based on your scenario, defaulting on our debt, will send gold to the moon. I guess the option is to hold paper that will contuinue to be debased or hold gold. We’ll I’m firmly entrenched in that position.

    Don’t cry for me Argentina.

  302. BC Bob says:

    Sean,

    Congrats. I owe you a Guinness.

  303. Stu says:

    BC:

    You owe me the Guinness. Sean didn’t say who impregnated her!!!

    ;)

  304. lisoosh says:

    309 – Next to me.

    Building didn’t look that old, maybe just the base was the original, the top was all 1950’s. They’ve been ripping out the old houses on that line (wrecks to be honest) to put in IHOP’s and stuff.

    To be honest it was worse when they ripped out a beautiful old Victorian mansion surrounded by trees to build a Walgreens.

    There’s not much of the old village left.

  305. BC Bob says:

    “You owe me the Guinness”

    Stu,

    OK. You also.

    Cheers.

  306. sas says:

    “video poker”

    i think video poker has the worse odds.
    play blackjack instead, least you have better odds. Look for 1 deck shoots & follow the aces.

    SAS

  307. sas says:

    “Don’t cry for me Argentina”

    lol
    yup, true

    SAS

  308. Rich says:

    Financing is not available and never has been in Argentina. Real estate transactions there are done with cash in suit cases. Financing dried up in middle of the century. They have one of the least ambitious people. I do not fault them for that, but in the US we have the most ambitious people in the world. We will rebuild and move foward and create another bubble and it will burst again. It is a cycle that never ends. People that look for freedom and opportunity only head for one place, the USA. The best people live here, we are a country that controls our own destiny.

  309. DISSIDENT HEHEHE says:

    My favorite part of the porkulus bill, around $50 billion nationwide slush funds for the teachers unions:

    Schools:

    A main goal of education spending in the stimulus bill is to help keep teachers on the job.

    Nearly 600,000 jobs in elementary and secondary schools could be eliminated by state budget cuts over the next three years, according to a study released this past week by the University of Washington. Fewer teachers means higher class sizes, something that districts are scrambling to prevent.

    The stimulus sets up a $54 billion fund to help prevent or restore state budget cuts, of which $39 billion must go toward kindergarten through 12th grade and higher education. In addition, about $8 billion of the fund could be used for other priorities, including modernization and renovation of schools and colleges, though how much is unclear, because Congress decided not to specify a dollar figure.

    The Education Department will distribute the money as quickly as it can over the next couple of years.

    And it adds $25 billion extra to No Child Left Behind and special education programs, which help pay teacher salaries, among other things.

    This money may go out much more slowly; states have five years to spend the dollars, and they have a history of spending them slowly. In fact, states don’t spend all the money; they return nearly $100 million to the federal treasury every year.

    The stimulus bill also includes more than $4 billion for the Head Start and Early Head Start early education programs and for child care programs.

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090214/ap_on_go_co/stimulus_stakes_who_gets_what

    First the UAW now the teachers. This country is such a joke.

  310. Pat says:

    What is it about this blog that attracts the people with the having babies?

    Congrats, Sean.

    And you, too, CF.

    Kids love rentals. They get yelled at less in rentals.

    “Don’t write on those walls. Oh, wait, it’s a rental. Like he’s really going to hit our security. And do we care???? Here, Honey, try the purple, too.”

    “Stop splashing the water on the walls, you’re not allowed to do ocean wave belly-surfing in the bathtub. Oh, wait. It’s a rental. Ride that wave!…

    Hello, Don? The tub leaked. You should see the walls. You better send Pedro over here right away or the new carpeting in the living room is toast.”

  311. 3b says:

    #322 Rich: Put a fork in it please its done.

  312. Hobokenite says:

    “We all knew it was a risk, we were told to make sure we were diversified, blah blah, but my God, it had been going strong for so long and with such fantastic returns, we had to get in,” he wrote. “We deluded ourselves into thinking we were smarter than the others.”

    Sounds a lot like RE, but in fact it’s about poor financiers committing suicide. In particular, the quote is about Madoff.

    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/29195955/

  313. sas says:

    “we are a country that controls our own destiny”

    we are a country, that like to control the destiny…. of other countries, especially if they resources.

    whats a few dead boys & girls if we can control that country.

    I remember out in Vietnam, we went through the meat grinder, so the pentagon would make billion dollard deals.

    I’m a bitter leftover :P
    SAS

  314. grim says:

    From the Record:

    Centuria nears foreclosure

    The stalled Centuria mixed-use project in Fort Lee is facing foreclosure actions by lenders seeking to recover more than $90 million in debt, and half the property is scheduled to be sold at sheriff’s auction March 20.

    The Bergen County sale involves the western half of the property, which secured a $31 million debt owed by Town & Country Developers of Westwood, Centuria’s owner, to TDC Fort Lee, an affiliate of Tucker Development Corp. in Illinois.

    TDC bought a $29 million loan, with an interest rate of 16 percent, secured by the property from affiliates of Principal Financial last May. With interest and fees, the debt has grown to $31 million.

    Town & Country has not made payments on the loan since last June, said TDC’s lawyer, Peter Yarem of Newark.

    The land scheduled to be sold at auction covers about 7.9 acres out of Centuria’s total 15.7 acres.

    In addition, a $60 million foreclosure action has been started by Palisades Financial of Fort Lee, the lender on the eastern portion of the property, according to Palisades’ lawyer, Leo Leyva of Hackensack. The loan was made about two years ago, Leyva said, and Palisades began foreclosure proceedings last July. No date has been set for a sheriff’s auction.

  315. sas says:

    “Federal obligations exceed world GDP
    Does $65.5 trillion terrify anyone yet?”
    http://tinyurl.com/b9y2ot

  316. bi says:

    I expect JPM, WFC, GS, SS, BNY and MS are going to pay back the money soon after O signs the bill. Citi will be renamed to Citi Acorn Group and everyone there except Pandit, who volunteered to be paid $1 until it becomes profitable, will make exactly $500,000.

    Disclaimer: This is just a joke.

    WSJ:

    Language in the contracts banks signed when banks took money from the TARP allowed the government to change terms retroactively. Still, “I’ll bet you will see in the next month or so, banks paying back the government,” said Alan M. Levine, an executive-pay attorney at Morrison Cohen LLP in New York. “They don’t want to run their business under these restrictions.”

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123457165806186405.html?mod=mktw

  317. Hobokenite says:

    So the banks are going to return billions of dollars just so another 20 top executives at each one can get enormous bonuses?

  318. Clotpoll says:

    Why give back the TARP money? There are multiple loopholes to exec comp…the easiest being bonus payments in options.

    There’s nothing stopping comp committees from changing strike prices if it looks as though options will be expiring worthless.

    Nothing.

  319. Stu says:

    I suppose the banks have two options.

    1. Not accept TARP dollars and the executives get one last giant paycheck this year as we all know that the large banks are insolvent.

    2. Accept Tarp dollars but still go bankrupt, but maybe a few month laters than in the prior case. Executives don’t get much of a bonus unless they exploit the obvious loopholes.

    I’m thinking #1 wins by a large margin.

    Let’s extend the Bush tax cuts as well, seeing how well they have worked.

  320. MikeyMike says:

    From Jim Sinclair’s Mineset:

    http://www.jsmineset.com/

    Dear Extended Family,
    I sent you a certain few emails that I consider to be the most important communications issued in my career that started in 1958.
    I am the son of what I know to have been the greatest Lone Wolf trader in Wall Street history ever, Bertram J. Seligman. He was a past master at his business and believed to be a market sensitive. I apprenticed to him, learned from him and inherited some of his ability, not all however.
    From this background of experience understanding and sensitivity the following flows.
    The emails of note:
    1. Said, “This is it.”
    2. Said, “It is now.”
    This communication is to inform you as of 2/13/09, “It is totally out of control.” There is no longer any means of reversal of the beginning of the final phase of the downward spiral now solidly set in motion.
    For your sake, protect yourselves immediately.
    Be prepared for disruptions in distribution common to hyperinflation.
    1. You should have already distanced yourself from your financial agents. If you haven’t you are headed for significant displeasure and strain.
    2. Make sure you stay three months ahead on necessary items that could experience distribution delays such as prescribed medicine and preferred foods.
    3. Even though real estate is far from a buy, if you can afford a second home outside of major cities it would serve a good purpose.
    4. Own gold.
    5. Consider that good gold shares of non-US companies incorporated in a non-US country operating in third country, traded on multiple exchanges are a means of money expatriation legally and in broad daylight if required.
    6. For currencies, all you can do is own a spread held by a true custodial ship wherever that might be.
    Simply said, as of Friday February 13th, 2009 the situation is in confirmed “Out of Control” mode as this well engineered downward spiral enters into a terminal phase.
    The motive was profit and degree of the disintegration caused in the pursuit of this goal was not anticipated.
    The key event was when Lehman was flushed – all hell broke loose. The hell cannot be contained in any practical manner.
    I seek nothing of you, but the protection of yourselves.
    Respectfully yours,
    Jim

  321. Rich says:

    # 334
    3. Even though real estate is far from a buy, if you can afford a second home outside of major cities it would serve a good purpose.

    I do not understand the thinking behind this one.

    Jim must be selling gold and 2nd homes.

  322. Pat says:

    What does afford mean?

    I found a nice rental out in the boonies.

    Does that serve any purpose?

  323. Sean says:

    Thanks all for the accolades. Truth be told it is very soon to be spilling the beans but I am bursting right now with love and pride, haven’t told a soul in the family but since we are somewhat anonymous here then what the heck about spreading the news.

    Sooo Shush! Later doomers.

  324. yikes says:

    Clotpoll says:
    February 13, 2009 at 7:38 pm

    yikes (135)-

    Whoa, dude. She ain’t my type. Serena’s more my speed.

    agreed.
    http://i7.photobucket.com/albums/y279/NrllAless/blog/news/awards/blake-lively-teen-choice-08.jpg

  325. Barbara says:

    334.
    I stopped reading after “Dear Extended Family”

    bag-o-wind

  326. KareninCA says:

    Sean – congrats!!!
    my parents bought their first house when I was about 5, and I remember the places we lived in (rented) before that very fondly. graduate student housing, and a place blocks from the ocean that my parents never could have afforded to buy. rent until 2011.

  327. me@work says:

    Gawd do I have a pile of reading…

    [shakes head in despair]

    I dunno when I’ll catch up…

    sl

  328. DISSIDENT HEHEHE says:

    Congrats Sean!

  329. DISSIDENT HEHEHE says:

    Congrats Sean!

  330. Cindy says:

    Congratulations Sean – And that will be #? All the best.

  331. Cindy says:

    http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Breaks-stimulus-bill-may-require/story.aspx?guid={B1B0F1F8-62DC-4AFD-9F4B-EB9E07F3A007}

    Yikes – It says in this Marketwatch article that:

    “There is one aspect of the home purchase credit that could require planning: You can claim the credit on your 2008 taxes, even if you bought the home in 2009, according to Mark Luscombe, a principal analyst with CCH Inc., a Riverwoods, Ill tax publisher and unit of Wolters Kluver.

    There may need to be a little IRS instruction in that regard because the 2008 forms and instructions probably don’t at present contemplate an $8,000 credit, he said.

  332. Cindy says:

    http://www.businessinsider.com/bonus-orgy-wall-street-paid-itself-more-for-2008-debacle-than-2000-bubble-2009-2

    “If there was any doubt left that bonuses reward performance, this Wall Street chart should put it to rest.”

  333. Cindy says:

    http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/02/another-sign-that-volcker-is.html

    Naked Capitalism: Another Sign that Volcker is Marginalized (And a Preview of His Program)

    “The system is broken, he said. Fixing it will take a lot of money and a lot of losses in the banking system.”

    …effectively he is calling for the re-imposition of Glass-Stegall, the Depression-era legislation that separated commercial banking from investment banking.

    So Obama chooses to follow Geitner – the market hates indecision and that is all this guy is – and avoids the tough ideas of Volcker – the one bright spot in the whole mess.

    I see now why many here have said O is being run over by a fast-moving train. He better stand up tall soon…if only he’d listen to Tall Paul – I might listen to him….

  334. Clotpoll says:

    The world, according to Mike:

    SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 14, 2009

    Obama Deal with Family A, B and C

    “Light years away from the circus in Washington there is a land called “reality.” Not “Reality TV,” but real reality. Below is my attempt to demonstrate why Obama’s latest plan will not work. In fact, there are no less than 10 versions of the fart he floated out to the world on Thursday.

    In all due respect, nothing will work . . . with the one exception of a huge transfer of wealth. That transfer will happen . . . or we will destroy the planet. The transfer should start with guys like King Henry and Lord Blankenfein. Add to that list Angelo Mozilla, Wilbur Ross and thousands of others that have profited immensely from fraudulent and misleading deals that are now coming to roost.

    In any event, we will never go after these men. In fact, we allow them to continue to r@pe the system. Below is a disgusting taste of reality.

    Family A – Husband and wife with 13 and 19 year old children. On in high school and one in college. Husband and wife recently lost their jobs. He was employed as a mortgage broker and she was a manager for a builder. They went from a combined income of $350,000 to zero.

    When they were both employed, they took several expensive vacations each year, ate out at fine restaurants three times a week and they bought a boat, two jet skis, two snowmobiles, two motorcycles and an RV. The 19 year old has a brand new car that Mommy and Daddy bought her. It’s a $40,000 Lexus. Dad drives a Mercedes 500 and Mom drives a Jag. Junior at 13 has an allowance of $50 a week. Missy, in college, lasted one night as a waitress before she called Daddy to cry about a busted fingernail. Daddy got upset and called the restaurant manager. The Daddy called Missy and told her to just calm down, take a Valium and relax . . . she didn’t have to work, and Daddy would still send her $200 a week for her expenses.

    Her expenses . . . $50 a week for her nails, $100 a month for her hair and clothes. No . . . strike that. She has a credit card for her shopping . . . and Mommy pays that bill.

    Family A has NO savings. They used their house as a revolving ATM machine. The house was worth $700,000 at the peak, on which they have $650,000 in ARM mortgages and equity lines. Now the house is worth $400,000. Oh by the way, they had $45,000 in credit card debt when they lost their jobs. Now they have $125,000 in credit card debt and the interest rate on all of their cards is 29.99%, so interest alone is now $3,125 a month.

    Family A has not paid their mortgage in six months. Mr. A has been looking for a job, but he has turned down five jobs because they only paid half of what he was earning. He wants $250,000 a year, and his best offer was $125,000. Mrs. A got her real estate license and is selling real estate. Did I say selling? Silly me. She spent $4,000 to get her license and $12,000 on new clothes and $2,500 on accessories and office stuff. But she is not selling. In fact, she spends most of her time at Open House get-togethers with other agents and lunches with the girls.

    Mr. and Mrs. A are also collecting unemployment benefits.

    Family B – Same as Family A – Husband and wife with 13 and 19 year old children. On in high school and one in college.

    Mr. B has held the same job as a manager at a local hotel for 18 years. He earns $67,000. Mrs. B is an ER nurse and earns $72,000 a year. Instead of golfing on Saturdays, Mr. B also works Saturdays as a cook in a local restaurant at $18 to earn a few extra bucks so they can pay their mortgage.

    Family B has one car. It is a seven year old Chevy. Family B’s last vacation was a week at the Jersey Shore where they stayed at a relative’s house. Family B does NOT own a boat, nor any jet skis, nor any snowmobiles and they don’t own an RV. They eat out once a month at Denny’s. They shop at Sam’s Club. Junior has a $10 a week allowance and he earns another $30 a week doing chores. Missy works two jobs while attending a community college.

    Family B saves money and has about $200,000 in bank accounts saved by cutting corners for 20 years. Family B bought a $250,000 house a few years ago and it is now worth $180,000. Family B put down 30% on their home so they are at about break even on equity in the home. Family B has NO credit card debt.

    How It Works – Obama proposes to take Family B’s savings and hard earned money to reward Family A for living above their means with no sense of responsibility. Obama is going to yank the rug on Family B’s future so Family A can continue to live above their means . . . and Obama is going to tell Family B to work harder so they can pay more taxes, so Obama can give more money to Family A.

    Naturally, I have simplified the examples and there are millions of hard working Family B families that have lost their jobs and are stuck in homes that are underwater. But how does Obama plan on deciding who gets what and why? But that’s not all. Obama is planning on telling the people that loaned Family A money . . . that they are not going to get paid what they are entitled to, but Obama is going to come up with a new interest rate and . . . . AND Obama is going to reduce the principal due or extend the life of the loan or change the terms anyway he so pleases.

    Now do you get it? Not yet. One more example.

    Family C – Husband and wife with 13 and 19 year old children. One in high school and one working full time because the family can’t afford to send her to college. Missy works at minimum wage in a local fast food restaurant.

    Husband and wife recently lost their jobs. He spent 18 years at the same job as a mechanic. She spent 18 year at the same job as line person at a furniture manufacturer that went out of business. Instead of collecting unemployment, Mr. and Mrs. C work for $8 an hour.

    Family C does NOT own a car. They use mass transportation. They do not own a house. They have been renting all of their lives because they never earned enough to save. And their kids get no allowance. Family C has no health insurance and Junior has severe autism requiring medication and special food that Family C cannot afford.

    Family C is behind on their rent and were just evicted. Mr. C lives in a men’s shelter and Mrs. C lives in another shelter. Mr. & Mrs. C still go to work everyday and are trying to save enough to rent another apartment.

    ObamaRamaLama – Family C . . . too bad, because you get zip. Since you don’t own a home and you didn’t go out and get a zero down mortgage with no payments for the first year . . . that reset in year three with a whopper of a payment . . . you get zip. Tough love. Go live on the street. Eat dog poop and die. Sounds harsh?

    That is exactly what Obama is proposing. ObamaRamaLama is going to reward the irresponsible, spoiled brats of the world, while the most in need will suffer even more than they have.

    And folks . . . if you think that is not a recipe for violence . . . think again. In fact, there are millions of families in far worse shape than Family C. And there are millions of illegal immigrants out of work and not counted. And there are more violent gangs today, than ever in the history of this country. These gangs are growing more than any other demographic group in the world.

    5Gs – God, grub, guns, gold and grape juice.

    Investment Update – Very briefly. We just recommended more gold and added a group of mining stocks. Things are unraveling faster than I anticipated. We will profit on our short positions and PUTs. With these profits, I want you all to consider where you are at financially and what you need.

    This will be a critical weekend. The foreign markets will have two trading days in front of us. I am going to carefully watch China. If we do not see enough movement down, we will exit our FXP position. If things do not begin to adjust to reality, I want to be out for the next 2-3 months. If we do get out of FXP, we will actually look to get back in as the weather improves. It is not easy to demonstrate and rally when it is freezing cold outside. So if the markets do not start to recognize the tidal wave on the horizon, we will move to higher ground for a bit, and the re-enter in 2-3 months.

    If we see a hard spike down this week, we will be adding to cash and gold . . . because there will be market rallies. Obama might just promise something we cannot even dream of. Who would have though King Henry could get away with everything he did? Obama is just getting fired up . . . and he is more clueless than a rock covered in bird poop . . . unless he is sly as a fox with rabies. Then again, a fox with rabies is not sly . . . just wild, crazed and capable of anything.”

  335. DISSIDENT HEHEHE says:

    Clot,

    Like I said, if they want a civil war in this country all they need to do is pass some crazy @ss mortgage modification program.

  336. CAIBC says:

    interesting….the American Dream is now turning into the American Nightmare….

    i wonder if its a good time to look for rental properties…there may be a lot more renters out there…then again, these properties probably still have high asking prices!!!

  337. DISSIDENT HEHEHE says:

    Stanford curtails financing amid probe: report

    NEW YORK (Reuters) – Texas billionaire Allen Stanford’s offshore bank, which is under federal investigation, recently curtailed financing commitments to two small firms, The Wall Street Journal reported on its Web site on Saturday, citing regulatory filings.

    Stanford International Bank Ltd. of Antigua failed to provide $16 million in funding to a telecommunications firm in Florida and an Alabama health-care company said it could not complete a $62 million merger when funding fell through.

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/breakingFundsNews/idUKN1526611620090215

    This is going to be Madoff II. I am sure there’s III, IV etc out there waiting to pop up too.

  338. grim says:

    New thread, move it up.

  339. DISSIDENT HEHEHE says:

    Clot,

    Mike Morgan also forgot family D: No credit card debt, have 20% downpayment, but unfortunately missed a credit card payment 14 months ago. Sorry no mortgage for you. No wait, we can work with you, but your mortgage rate is going to be 10%. Sorry most of our money went to modify all the family A’s mortgages, that’s the deal, 10% take or leave it. Maybe come back in a year when the late payment is off your credit record. Maybe we can knock that rate down to 9%.

  340. Kim Cannon says:

    I would like to comment on your ‘comp killer’ in Summit that just closed for $1.1m

  341. grim says:

    Just a quick note on Whittredge.

    The original list price was actually $1,975,000 in 2005, not the $1,850,000 that I mention above. Didn’t realize it when going through the 10 prior MLS listings.

    That would put the sale at 44.3% below the original 2005 list price.

  342. Jill says:

    I think that Hickory Street house was on and off the market a few times in the years between 2004 and now; I know I’ve seen signs outside that house more than once. I seem to recall a sign out front maybe a year ago listing it at $525K, which is insane. Prices in Washington Twp. are still relatively high. Another cape with a 2-car garage on a 100-ft. lot (most in the neighborhood are 75-ft) just went for $450K/

  343. Brook says:

    ATTENTION HOMEBUYERS

    How to Beat the Home Buying Bubble of Over-Inflated Prices

    There is an answer to the astronomical rising prices of homes. Within our area, housing prices have more than doubled (and in some instances, have tripled) in the past 5-6 years for no reason except greed. People have put themselves into debt, because they did not want to lose a home because they became emotionally attached and in turn, took out a mortgage that a mortgage broker said they could afford -when in actuality they could not. I am a homeowner in Chatham and have lived here for most of my life. The realtors have strongly brainwashed homebuyers to purchase more expensive homes than they could afford and persuaded home buyers to take out huge mortgages in order to purchase a home. Due to the greed of the realtors, the homeowners who sold their homes, which accelerated into a false “supply and demand”, houses have escalated so much that middle class prospective homebuyers cannot afford to purchase a home. My children cannot afford to purchase a home.

    Greed has brought down Wall Street, Banks, Mortgage companies, and other large corporations. This is where we had to fall, in order to learn and know the important things in life. When I sell my home, it will be for the Pre-Real Estate Boom price: an average price where the middle class person can afford to purchase a home, easily. This will begin the lowering cost of homes. People are losing their homes and their jobs. Middle America cannot get over-inflated mortgages, any longer, nor do they want to. We have entered into an economic collapse.

    A colleague of mine has been looking to purchase his first home. Just to give you an example, in December 2002, the house sold for $210,000. In October 2008 (5 years later), the realtor has listed the home price as $420,000. Bear in mind, there has been a small amount of cosmetic work done to the home (nothing exceptional). The price has listed as more than doubled in the past 5 years, which is completely ludicrous. A doubling of a house price in 5 years is pure greed. This is just one of the many examples in this area of a 20 mile radius. Has your salary doubled or tripled within 5 years? No, in fact, many salaries have decreased in the past 5 years.

    When my colleague had questioned the realtor regarding the reasoning behind the over- inflated prices, she mentioned “it was for a reason.” She alluded to the statement to “keep particular people out.” I expressed to her how disgusting that was and at this time in history, someone actually had the audacity to express this sentiment. She was from a big conglomerate Realtor firm. Needless to say, my colleague dropped her as a realtor and strongly advises against recommending her company.

    People need to stick together and look at the “big picture” and look at their fellow man, instead of the most exhorbant amount of money they can put into their pockets.

    So, as homebuyers, there is a way to bring the prices of homes (Pre-boom real estate prices – 2001) to an affordable price.

    1) In the state of New Jersey, the cost of a sale of a home is public information. All records date back to the building of the home.

    2) Call the Taxation Dept. at the Borough Town Hall in the designated town. Give them the address of your prospective home and ask them all the sale dates of the home and what they sold for. You may want to know the last 3 or 4 home sales of the particular home in order to determine the inflated real estate boom market price and to determine a bid price.

    3) Bid according to the price BEFORE the Real Estate Boom Market. At the point of the Real Estate Boom Market – during and at its highest peak, these are over-inflated homes and they are simply not worth it.

    4) For example, the house that my colleague was reviewing, sold for $210,000 in December 2002. In October 2008, the realtor listed the price as $420,000. So, with the collapse of the economy; people losing their jobs and homes, coupled with the doubling over-inflated prices of homes, in order to bid for a home, bid closer to the 2002 price of $210,000 with an increase of a few dollars. Use your discretion.

    5) Do not be swayed by realtors. They are conniving, aggressive sales people, who are looking out for how much money they can put in their pockets. They are NOT looking out for your best interest, whatsoever. The most used phrase to attempt to condone listing homes with extremely high prices; even the most modest small/average home in the Chatham, NJ or the Morris County area, the realtor would say in that unconvincing wispy voice, “It’s C-h-a-t-h-a-m” or “It’s M-A-D-I-S-O-N.” You could sell a home in any neighborhood with those sales tactics and using that tone and connotation. “It’s W-H-I-P-P-A-N-Y.” Sounds the same, right? You understand the brainwashing techniques.

    There are homeowners in this area and the surrounding towns, who are able to sell their home for a reasonable price. Not everyone is greedy. Another friend of mine sold their home. This was at the beginning of the real estate boom. His house was listed as $750,000 by the realtor. He met a couple whom he liked. He expressed to the couple that he has been blessed with an average income and a wonderful family, and would like to give someone an opportunity. He sold his house for more than ½ the listed price at $350,000. Look at the possibilities. Do not listen to the negative people. Everything is possible.

    The more homebuyers use these tactics and stick to this principle, the more homes will decline in price, close to where they were before the Real Estate Inflationary Boom of Double and Triple prices. Soon, homebuyers will be able to purchase homes again at a reasonable price and not an inflationary false price.

    Good luck!

  344. Brook says:

    REMEMBER; NO MATTER WHAT YOU BID ON A HOME, THE REAL ESTATE AGENT IS LIABLE TO PUT IN THE BID WITH A CONTRACT. IF SHE/HE DOESNT, YOU CAN TAKE ACTIONS TO TAKE THEIR LICENSE AWAY!!!!!!! IF THE HOUSE IS $500,000 — YOU CAN BID $250,000. THE MORE HOMEBUYERS BID ACCORDING TO PRE-BOOM PRICES, THE BETTER OFF WE ALL ARE AND WE CAN BUY HOMES, ONCE AGAIN!

  345. If you’ve been listening to SBE or Etc. lately, you’ve heard his stuff. Lauris’ music has been described as “kitchen sink beat- blues with an affected sense of swampy melodrama.” Use one of the audio player options below to listen.

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