From the NY Times:
Trapped in Their Own Homes
By MARY JO PATTERSON
Published: February 19, 2009
ON May 1, 2007, a very different economic era, Janet Faello put her former marital home on the market for $829,000. She and her husband were divorcing.
“It’s not the Taj Mahal, but it’s a nice, well-maintained home,” said Ms. Faello, a 53-year-old massage therapist with two daughters in college who remains in the house, which she and her ex-husband still jointly own. Her ex-husband lives elsewhere. “I haven’t been entertained once with an offer, and I’m still not getting any bites.”
With the house unsold, Ms. Faello said she and her ex-husband are struggling to meet expenses. Taxes alone are $13,860 a year.
…
Would-be sellers in New York City’s suburbs understand her pain, whether they are trying to sell a Cape Cod for $300,000 or a center hall Colonial for $1 million. In a housing market characterized by eroding home values, high inventory and tight credit for borrowers, many feel stuck in a place they don’t want or can’t afford. As the recession becomes more severe and unemployment mounts, they fret each week their properties remain unsold, and fear losing equity. While buyers hunt for exceptional values, sellers feel like hostages. And their pain is sometimes drawn out when deals that seem to be done blow up just before the closing.
…
Nevertheless, all the reporting agencies are concluding that the number of sales of single-family homes in 2008 was down from 2007 in the New York metropolitan area, and prices in general were down. The median price for a home sold in the metropolitan area was $458,600 in the fourth quarter of 2008, down 11.7 percent from a year earlier, according to the National Association of Realtors. Those figures reflect the agency’s tracking of sales in Bergen, Hudson and Passaic Counties in New Jersey; and the Bronx, Kings, Putnam and Westchester Counties in New York.
…
A seller’s anguish may not be as sharp as the pain of a homeowner facing foreclosure. But the situation can alter life plans and jettison hopes.Some sellers are losing hope.
Consider Mary Beth Lang of Shelton, Conn. She is 62, with grown children and a husband who retired as a buyer for a technology company. Her dream went like this: sell the house and move to their new custom home in Kentucky.
Her five-bedroom, four-bath house went on the market for more than $1 million in 2006. The price has since slid to $875,000, but there are no takers. Repainted, with many personal effects removed to look less cluttered, it no longer feels like home. The Kentucky house? It’s for sale, too.
…
James Bednar, a real estate agent representing buyers at DRI Real Estate Company in Ridgewood, N.J., said many sellers overvalue their homes.“The industry has nailed into people’s minds that their houses are worth a certain amount,” said Mr. Bednar, who blogs about the New Jersey market at njrereport.com. “Sellers remember what neighbors sold their houses for two years ago and hold on to those unrealistic comparables. They need to accept the current reality of the market.”
Mr. Bednar said he knows that sellers do not always have the leeway to drop their price. Others will be asked to pay a steep price for features buyers consider undesirable.
“In a boom time, buyers tend to overlook things like a high tension line that’s a little close to the house, a street that’s a little too busy or an odd layout,” Mr. Bednar said. “In a down market like this, those preferences are magnified.”
JONATHAN GREENBERG paid $792,000 for a lake house in Montville, N.J., in 2005, attracted by its unusual architecture and striking views. Then he invested nearly $100,000 in improvements. At the time he was single, but is now married and a father. With its steep slopes and 30-foot drop to the lake, the property is not “kid-friendly,” said Mr. Greenberg, who sells investment properties for a living. He listed the house a year ago for $930,000. The price is now $670,000.
“People say they love it, but it doesn’t have some of the fundamentals families are looking for,” said Mr. Greenberg, 41, whose wife, Malu, is expecting a second child. “It’d be perfect for New Yorkers who need some kind of getaway. It’s stressful. We do feel stuck.”
First?
Look at the case studies used for bias…
Mr Greenberg is an investor, overtly it’s not child friendly. Covertly it may have been a live flip as primary residence.
From the WSJ:
The Hamptons Half-Price Sale
At first glance it’s a gated mansion worthy of a Gilded Age: more than 14,000 square feet with eight bedrooms, 9½ bathrooms, five fireplaces, a pool, a pond, a tennis court and ocean views all nestled amid fields perfect for lavish summer parties.
Built on spec, this property was offered for sale in 2006 for $24.95 million. Today? Try $12.95 million — and even that lower price hasn’t yet lured a buyer. The mansion is now being sold at auction as part of a bankruptcy plan by the developer’s firm. The manse stands unfinished, forlorn and uninhabited.
“Tragic,” says Andrew Saunders, owner of real-estate agency Saunders & Associates, who adds the house would have sold in 2006 if it had been finished or priced less aggressively. “It was not overpriced. He got caught in economic times,” counters A. Mitchell Greene, an attorney for the developer.
Welcome to the new Hamptons, where the boom’s sunny days and Champagne nights have given way to foreclosure notices and sales at discounts of 25% to 30% and more. Some buyers are making offers of 50 cents on the dollar, and less. Brokers speak of the “Lehman houses” — homes that used to belong to employees of the fallen Wall Street firm — or “Madoff homes” — those owned by clients of the Manhattan financier implicated in a Ponzi scheme. Summer rentals are languishing. “For rent” signs have begun to appear in the windows of some boutiques on Southhampton and East Hampton’s tony shopping streets.
Most of the people in the article seemed like greedy grubbers to me.
NJ Real Estate Report summer rental in the Hamptons? I think we can swing this.
Drinks on the veranda at 5 every day. Followed by grenade launching on the beach.
safe (4)-
Word. When you aren’t getting showings and offers, lower your damn price.
These people are idiots. Not unlike the ones I encounter virtually every day.
“I haven’t been entertained once with an offer, and I’m still not getting any bites.”
Translation-
“I will not give up my unrealized equity and I can’t believe no one is dumb enough to buy it”
“sellers feel like hostages”
-hostages who are holding out for higher ransom…
Well Grim – at least you said it – Got out the exact words the sellers need to hear:
“Seller remember what neighbors sold their houses for two years ago and hold on to those unrealistic comparables. They need to accept the current reality of the market.”
#3
from the article
They are putting $1 million to $1.5 million offers on homes that are $3 million to $4 million
I always thought the highest bid is what something is worth. If people are only making offers of 1 million, then the house is only worth 1 million, not the 3 million some entitled bagholder listed it at.
#6 clot
It’s really amazing, isn’t it. If you are not attracting offers, then the house is priced too high.
Articles like this make me wonder how did we become the world’s superpower. Were just lucky, or are the rest of the unwashed masses on this planet even dumber?
I feel like these people need a visit from that crazy blond haired woman, susan powder?
Stop the insanity!!!!!
I think it was clot who mentioned that if you weren’t looking at RE0’s and foreclosures as a buyer, you were insane. I would have to agree
#3
more posers and dreamers. One guy had to sell his polo pony. An re agent rejected a lowball offer on her place and now is listing the house at 15% less then the lowball.
These doofuses enjoyed the credit bubble by either leading a lifestyle they couldn’t afford or making a living off other posers. I bet all of them thought they were so clever and smart back in 06.
I have been reading your blog. I thought it’s nice blog.
homes for sale scottsdale az
homes for sale carolina
Yesterday a former co-worker was telling me how lousy the economy is and it will take a few more months before 0bama can turn it around.
Sigh.
I’d say she’s 1 for 2.
Instead of this 800 billion stimulus package, i think the government would be better off building a time machine and going back to 2001 and trying to stop this bubble from ever happening.
My idea is more realistic then living through TARP 43 and stimulus package #8.
Also a lot cheaper.
“Trapped”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m3HLxc6ReMw
Good for you Grim! I wish more people would just tell it like it is.
“Mr. Bednar said. “In a down market like this, those preferences are magnified.”
I would have to agree with this guy, Mr Bednar. When psychology changes, perceptions change. Negatives beget more negatives. Lower prices beget lower prices. Forget about higher prices, how high will taxes go? Sq ft, how much does it cost to heat/cool this joint? Huge backyard, what’s the cost to upkeep? What is a pos with 4 walls and a roof worth? 40-50% off peak, at least for me.
General opinion question. SRS still a good buy at $82.00?
14 safehouses
the time machine is in place prices want to go back to 01 and beyond but the govt. is trying to stop it. they should just let free markets be free
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/02/19/BATJ161861.DTL&type=politics
California politics:
More for car registration, income tax increase and 1 cent sales tax goes through – but not 12 cent gasoline tax.
With Obama’s foreclosure assistance plan on the horizon– what is the potential final outcome in the real estate market’s prices? Is this plan suppose to create a bottom (or push a false bottom) to the market to stop falling prices? From reading this blog as well as other economic forecasters over the last six months, I thought the deflation of homes to a more reasonable price (2004) was a good and necessary fall?
thanks Yikes, we used Wells over the summer to get an idea of our standing, not a pre cert.
good luck with your new home
Clot, thanks for the stories (previous thread)
I have to say I feel a little shocked in this environment that lenders are still doing those dangerous things, but after you think about it for a moment I suppose I am not surprised…they will do it until someone stops them. But case in point, why should anyone bail her out? or the lender for that matter
Bullspit. I put a lot of money and emotions in my damn house and I’m not about to give it away to some damn vulture. If anything, these folks need to stand their damn ground so prices won’t decline further.
It will be a cold damn day in hell the day I sell my house for less than what’s it’s worth.
I know someone who stood their ground in Montclair and wound up selling at full price the first damn day the property was listed. I know you hate to hear that, but some sellers are getting their price.
Clotpoll says:
February 20, 2009 at 6:38 am
safe (4)-
Word. When you aren’t getting showings and offers, lower your damn price.
These people are idiots. Not unlike the ones I encounter virtually every day.
next scam
fraudulent tontine tax shelters
“Tontine”
http://tinyurl.com/3xxavf
SAS
Escape,
You’re kidding right? I am not an investment adviser. The SEC would try and shut down this blog if I answered that question. They’ll let Madoff run around ripping off $50B but they’s shut this right down:)
whats the DRI stand for Grim?
“It will be a cold damn day in hell the day I sell my house for less than what’s it’s worth.”
50.5,
That’s fine. Get very comfortable. Turn up the heat.
Boiler Up!
24 –
That is great they got their price, but it only means the buyer was an idiot for not walking away.
Thanks Grim, for telling the NYT readers the exact things they need to hear.
-am
Whose short?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1NvgLkuEtkA
kettle,
What is the difference between Ireland and Iceland. The letter r and 6 months.
Please sas. Stop trying to scare the shlt out or everyone. If I was to believe you, the only safe thing one can do is go back to looking at a mule’s ass while plowing a damn farm.
Look, I have a lot of damn stake in the economic structure as it is and your spreading of baseless rumors is unwarranted.
sas says:
February 20, 2009 at 7:50 am
next scam
fraudulent tontine tax shelters
“Tontine”
http://tinyurl.com/3xxavf
SAS
(push play on the dream sequence music)
rere #24 “I know someone who stood their ground in Montclair and wound up selling at full price the first damn day the property was listed. ”
SHHHHH…
That was Feb. 06 now go back to sleep nothing to see here
HEHE
According to that logic CNBC should be shut down.
the problem isn’t sellers and their asking prices its the idiots still buying at close to these asking prices
“Please sas. Stop trying to scare the shlt out or everyone.”
50.5,
Scaring the s*it out of everyone? We are well past that stage. TSHTF, already past the goal line. Now, sit back and watch the unraveling.
SRS 87.05 in premarket. Get your last words in premarket Bi.
I may purchase 100 shares at 90, just to make the price cross the ticker and to shut him up.
Friday is muzzle day!
Now this is something. Most of the Porkulus money is spent years after the recession ends anyway, so this lunacy can still be stopped.
“Rep. Louie Gohmert (R-TX) says that Republicans will cancel the Spendulus bill that extends for the next several years if the GOP is voted back into power in 2010.”
Tonto, hold back Hi Yo.
Escape:
“General opinion question. SRS still a good buy at $82.00?”
Would have been a much better buy when Bi said it was going to 25 back when it was at 50 about a week ago.
Is it a good by now? Better ask your magic eight ball. And then do an eight ball to help stomach the risk!
Stu,
If it trades at 89.90, put in a buy stop at 90.00.
If Bi comes in and bids, get out.
From Bloomberg:
Jumbo Defaults Rise at Fastest Pace Since 1992 as Rich Suffer
Luxury homeowners are falling behind on mortgage payments at the fastest pace in more than 15 years, a sign the U.S. financial crisis that began with the poorest Americans has reached the wealthiest.
About 2.57 percent of prime borrowers who took out jumbo loans last year were at least 60 days delinquent, a percentage reached within 10 months and the fastest since at least 1992, according to LPS Applied Analytics, a mortgage data service in Jacksonville, Florida. That’s almost twice as quickly as 2007 and a level 2006 owners haven’t attained after almost three years.
The jump in late payments on jumbo loans, while still lower than the 20 percent delinquencies in subprime mortgages, signals that the borrowers with the most money and the best credit are hurting as the U.S. recession deepens in its second year. It also means these loans will be even more difficult to obtain and more expensive to pay off.
“The biggest influence in rising delinquencies is related squarely to the economy rather than poor underwriting,” said Keith Gumbinger, vice president of HSH Associates, a Pompton Plains, New Jersey-based mortgage research firm. “We are apparently all suffering to some degree. It’s certainly more severe for some but still, it’s pretty much widespread.”
I thought it was hi ho
Jamil,
Where were you when W was spending like a drunken sailor?
Let’s face it. Both parties suck the big one. Not good for my country, but great for my investments.
From Barry R.
Name the last recession that the same/similar actions were taken?
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/boe-assets.png
“I thought it was hi ho”
cross,
No, Tonto, Hi Yo.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/121668-california-real-estate-market-is-up?source=email
“In other words, market forces are working in California real estate.”
And Jamil,
The republican politicking going on is equally as deplorable as ‘the messiah’s’ stimulus. Southern governors threatening to not accept state stimulus dollars to improve their chances of reelection? Didn’t see you publicize Palin’s tax woes either. So we can we just drop it already with the partisan crap and get back to what matters? Watching the country sink like a couple of rail builders in Blazing Saddles.
Stu,
Spot on. What’s the difference between borrow and spend and tax and spend.
Same as it ever was.
Lookout Boeing. Many major airlines are cancelling and delaying their heavy jet orders. How many people are going to get laid off.
John,
Think the senior bond holders are gonna get anything back at all from the majorly insolvent C and BAC bankruptcies? I think you might have been better off investing in the law firms that will be handling these proceedings. Oh yeah, they’re not public. My bad.
SRS hit 88.99 a moment ago. Yeehaw!
C $2.20
BAC $3.64
Re #21
Don’t expect Obama’s plan to have a big impact in the Garden State. NJ is ranked number #21 in foreclosures, and home prices have been falling recently because people simply aren’t buying.
Heck, I went to an open house last week and the realtor told me she was falling asleep. I was the first person to come… beautiful house too, but once again overpriced.
You call this a housing recession???
Give me a break.
12-Month Change By Top CBSAs (Core Based Statistical Areas) as of December 2008
New York-White Plains-Wayne NY-NJ -6.88%
Escape,
Selective prosecution is the SEC’s middle name:)
Turn off the fcuking flat screen, forget about Oprah, Access Hollywood, etc.. You fcuked up, time to pay the piper. You want a free ride, get on rt 80 and start hitchhiking. The fed,[the enabler] rating agencies, ib’s, yield chasers, and everybody else s*cking it? Let them all implode. It’s time to get back to basics. Restructure now, our only chance is by saving and investing.
The time has come
To say fairs fair
To pay the rent
To pay our share
The time has come
A facts a fact
It belongs to them
Lets give it back
How can we dance when our earth is turning
How do we sleep when our beds are burning
Midnight Oil
now this is rich, SAAB goes bankrupt, SAAB has lost money for 19 out of last 20 years. So paper speaks to a few local loyal SAAB owners. They all say they are very sad to see SAAB go as it was an excelent value for a quality brand name foreign car. Exclent VALUE!!!!! Should be they been selling the cars the last 20 years for less than they cost to make.
8 under contract in Hoboken this week.
At $500/ft housing boom continues, just look at the prices.
http://hudson.fnismls.com/publink/default.aspx?GUID=bfb29e4d-2ba3-49fe-a11b-4c31311f89cf&Report=Yes
44 stu: “Where were you when W was spending like a drunken sailor?”
I did not accept that either, but some overspending then (large increase in domestic programs, I would be curious to hear which programs dems opposed) is one thing. Gigantic generational theft, terminating the best domestic policy of 1990s – welfare reform (passed by Clinton + rep congress) and handing out money to ACORN and unions, is another.
If money needs to be spent in order to end the recession, fine (like in 2000-2004). Stimulus has nothing to do with it.
Rickels and Channel Lumber missed estimates.
“8 under contract in Hoboken this week.”
And, soon entering the bldg, Stan. As ususal he will rip Frank a new ahole.
Inflation up by 0.2%, where’s the deflation?? Where are the price declines?
“Where are the price declines?”
Your stocks. You were buying with WB, Great call.
BC Bob:
Doesn’t it feel like the 70’s all over again.
“It’s time to get back to basics. Restructure now, our only chance is by saving and investing.”
So after we piss all of our dollars away in the name of stimulus (transfer of money from the middle to the top), then someone will finally pull a tall Paul and realize that by raising interest rates it will encourage savings and we can restart the growth cycle.
Isn’t this what I was advocating well over 2 years ago, regardless of what happened in the great depression?
Would someone just listen to Roubini and Mish for a change?
From MarketWatch:
U.S. Jan. food prices up 0.1%
U.S. Jan. energy prices up 1.7%
U.S. core CPI up 1.7% in past year, 4-year low
U.S. CPI unchanged over past year, 53-year low
U.S. Jan. core CPI up 0.2% vs. 0.1% expected
U.S. Jan. consumer price index up 0.3% as expected
Hey Jamil,
How bout those clowns holding gold? Still holding foreign paper?
Escape,
Personally it does appear to have double bottomed which typically means its headed for a run upwards:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=SRS#chart4:symbol=srs;range=1y;indicator=bollinger+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Having said that, you might want to wait for a pullback sometime next week to buy. There’s also likely to be a selloff at the end of the day today as a lot of traders close out their shorts before the weekend as the gubmint latest “rescue” plans usually are announced Sunday nights.
BC,
Switzerland is actually more interesting then spain, ireland or the UK in my opinion. Switzerland is THE safe banking haven in many peoples minds and they could not imagine them hitting the wall.
To bad their banking liabilities are 400% of GDP compared to the US who;s banking liabilities are about 84% GDP.
Switzerland falling apart could be a significant mental and behavioral shift if it shatters peoples perceptions of “safe” shift
frank 62
here it is
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_nSTO-vZpSgc/SY-8GyfFb8I/AAAAAAAAFk8/PeRtZU1GhxI/s1600-h/keen2.png
From Bloomberg:
Jumbo Defaults Rise at Fastest Pace Since 1992 as Rich Suffer
Feb. 20 (Bloomberg) — Luxury homeowners are falling behind on mortgage payments at the fastest pace in more than 15 years, a sign the U.S. financial crisis that began with the poorest Americans has reached the wealthiest.
About 2.57 percent of prime borrowers who took out jumbo loans last year were at least 60 days delinquent, a percentage reached within 10 months and the fastest since at least 1992, according to LPS Applied Analytics, a mortgage data service in Jacksonville, Florida. That’s almost twice as quickly as 2007 and a level 2006 owners haven’t attained after almost three years.
The jump in late payments on jumbo loans, while still lower than the 20 percent delinquencies in subprime mortgages, signals that the borrowers with the most money and the best credit are hurting as the U.S. recession deepens in its second year. It also means these loans will be even more difficult to obtain and more expensive to pay off.
“The biggest influence in rising delinquencies is related squarely to the economy rather than poor underwriting,” said Keith Gumbinger, vice president of HSH Associates, a Pompton Plains, New Jersey-based mortgage research firm. “We are apparently all suffering to some degree. It’s certainly more severe for some but still, it’s pretty much widespread.”
[snip]
Jumbo lending slowed in the fourth quarter to $11 billion, or 4 percent of the mortgage market, the lowest quarterly amount since Inside Mortgage Finance started tracking that data in 1990. In 2007, jumbo loans made up 14 percent of total U.S. mortgage originations, according to the Bethesda, Maryland-based publication.
The top five U.S. jumbo lenders — Chase Home Finance LLC, Bank of America Corp., Washington Mutual Inc., Wells Fargo & Co. and Citigroup Inc. — originated a combined $55.3 billion in jumbos in 2008. They lent just $4.3 billion of that during the last three months of the year, according to Inside Mortgage Finance.
[snip]
“The only jumbo mortgages being written right now have strict qualification criteria both in the credit rating of the borrower and the down payment requirements and they are nearly impossible to qualify for,” Mehl said. “Some lenders quote a jumbo rate but they don’t make the loans.”
Steve Habetz, president of Threshold Mortgage Co. in Westport, Connecticut, said he relied on Hudson City Bancorp Inc. in Paramus, New Jersey, and closely held, Manhasset, New York- based Apple Bank for Savings for jumbo loans.
Capacity is down because lenders everywhere are understaffed and “drowning in loan applications,” Habetz said.
Habetz said he had a customer with a 740 credit score who had a down payment of $500,000 on a $1 million home in Easton, Connecticut. The borrower had to wait two weeks for approval when in December he would have gotten the mortgage overnight.
“Mortgage lending right now is like wading miles and miles in waist-deep mud,” Habetz said. “It’s so difficult. Jumbo borrowers will be tortured and it’s nothing they should take personally because everybody is getting tortured.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a0O1vDxlPEBA#
Escape,
Case in point re SEC selective prosecution:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jonathan_Lebed
The government protects the chosen few who can lie all they want, the rest of us must abide by the law.
He times 3:
“There’s also likely to be a selloff at the end of the day today as a lot of traders close out their shorts before the weekend as the gubmint latest “rescue” plans usually are announced Sunday nights.”
Or you can just do what I do and hold for long-term gains. The world is collapsing around us and it’s leaders continue to do exactly what they shouldn’t. So who cares about a Friday night sell off. Until I see a single intelligent move by any so called 1st or 2nd world government, I’m holding. And I went through this the last time around as well. As everyone watched the daily gyrations, I stayed on the coaster to a near triple bagger. Patience!!!
“Case in point re SEC selective prosecution:”
Martha Stewart.
Escape (18)-
Sure.
All disclaimers.
Would-be sellers in New York City’s suburbs understand her pain, whether they are trying to sell a Cape Cod for $300,000 or a center hall Colonial for $1 million. In
If this phrase read:
Would-be sellers in New York City’s suburbs understand her pain, whether they are trying to sell a Cape Cod for $150,000 or a center hall Colonial for $400,000 houses would be selling.
out west houses are selling pretty fast for “normal price”. IN NJ soon nothing will move unless it is short sale or FK.
Stu, not too worried, I only bought citi bonds in last week or two and only ones between 62 cents and 78 cents. bankruptcy is around 40 cents on average, I am just playing a game of chicken while clipping coupons. Wamu senior bonds btw paid 68 cents on a dollar in bankruptcy. Sad part is if you want to buy common stock you are better off buying the bond as in the reorg bondholders convert to equity as long as they don’t go completely under while equity gets completely wiped. The Sov, NCC bonds I bought are still up a lot as STD and PNC bought them and they went from junk to investment grade. Bet govt swaps pref for common so banks are not anchored by big dividends. Remember I buy bonds every months and never sell. That was just this months flavor. I think the big o needs to find his voice, he is spooking everyone with nationalization and his crazy mtg plan. Bottom line he needs to fix the banks but joe blow does not understand that and he is trying to appease the majority of americans in helping the little guy even though that is not the right long term tactic and the stock market knows it.
66 bob: “How bout those clowns holding gold? Still holding foreign paper?”
Uh..You remind me of those pets.com stock owners in late 1990’s and house owners around 2005. Smug attitude comes with the bubble personality, I guess.
First, I never said not owning gold is good thing. What I said was that aggressively buying gold at all time highs was a loser strategy. You can’t time the market (you need to time it twice, buying and selling). You are just a speculator. Long-term returns in gold have been less than inflation. Oh wait, this time it is different. This bubble is different!
At some you have to exchange gold to something (piece of bread, USD, ammo..).
and yes, I own a lot of “foreign paper”. It is doing just fine (sort of money market account). and no, its not in Iceland, Ireland, Ukraine, or Zimbabwe.
I bought some Cisco at 60 in 2000 and I’m not selling it for less than its worth. (Spit coffee.) Clot, instead of grenade launchers, wait until the Russians move in and mount a T-72 turret on the veranda and start lobbing 120mm rounds out into the water.
tom keane just said to check out a sit that has map of housing trouble with an overlay of govt. troubles but i missed the url anybody else hear it? something like mifa go
John (76): Fair enough and agree on your assessment about O.
safeashouses says:
February 20, 2009 at 6:34 am
Most of the people in the article seemed like greedy grubbers to me.
safe: how long have you been on the site? is this a new handle?
BC Bob-
it keeps me going…
busy day today, will have numbers later For Francis
something like mifa go
Us poor folk can’t afford Bloomberg terminals.
73. Stu
I was saying this a few weeks ago. Stewart gets a 30 second phone call, insider info to save her (not make, save) 40k and she gets sent up the river. These phone calls happen about a dozen a minute. Politicos were gunning for her and the got her.
Where are the commentators on this one? Where is/was the sober comparison to Enron and now Madoff.
tom keane:
I have been listening to him for years. Based on his voice, I always visualized him as a heavy-set, middle-aged Harley Davidson type. Then I saw him on TV recently and he is so the complete opposite. Just thought I would share that with all of you.
https://www.pbforum2008.com/pub/images/Thomas-R-Keene.png
Stu (72)-
Yep. This is the time to lock, load and let it ride.
Any day, any hour, a 2x short can ignite. Once it does, you can’t chase it. Those moves are where the gains are.
Much easier entering stops than trying to calculate an entry point when the .vix is 70 and everyone on the planet is diving into SRS or SKF.
jamil (77)-
You are way out of your depth here.
Barb,
They didn’t even get her on insider trading.
“The jury deliberated for three days following the five-week trial before reaching its verdict. On March 5, 2004, Stewart was found guilty by a jury of eight women and four men on all four remaining counts against her: conspiracy, obstruction of justice, and two counts of making false statements.[4] She was not found guilty of one of the most publicized charges: having falsely claimed that there was an agreement to sell her shares when they fell to $60.00. The jury did find that Stewart lied and obstructed justice on other grounds, including her claim that she was reminded of the prior $60.00 agreement and urged to sell on that basis.”
84 Barbara – That’s why you never, ever talk to the feds. They prosecuted her for lying to investigators, not for insider trading.
My federal defender friend would be so proud of me!
BC Bob says:
February 20, 2009 at 8:27 am
Midnight Oil
a must….
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dukmp4v9ZiU
clot: “You are way out of your depth here.”
I’m so used to not getting any substantive arguments. This time you forgot personal insults, though. At least yikes remembers them.
“Uh..You remind me of those pets.com stock owners in late 1990’s and house owners around 2005. Smug attitude comes with the bubble personality, I guess.”
Jamil,
House ownwer in 2005? Sorry, I sold, 9/05. Pet.com, yeah that was another fun time.
Major difference. I’m hedged. It can go to zero and I cash in. Forget about risk management?
Long term gains? Who cares what gold did in the 1990’s. I’m only long since 2003, check the dow/gold ratio since then. In addition to that, I was a RE bull in the early 90’s.
Gold is a currency, overtaking the Euro. Check the charts, gold in any foreign currency you like. It’s been breaking out against all, close in Yen.
Exchange for goods? You are kidding, no? I can hit a button and it turns to cash instantly. Bread? I can buy 260% more bread that I could in 2001.
You are holding foreign paper, yet I’m a speculator? Every foreign cb is printing and burning up the swap line. Enjoy your debasement.
Smug attitude. Only to clowns like you.
Clot:
“Any day, any hour, a 2x short can ignite.”
The black day is ne’re. You will need to be in it to win it!
NjGator
I know but the original motivation for the “gotcha” was purely political.
grim,
can you translate for us lay-folk?
Thanks…
sl
this is what I don’t get:
something like mifa go
sry- not enough coffee yet!
sl
Jamil #77…
Gold has been (and still is) a big deal in India. Families accumulate it as a “fall back option” in addition to real estate (basically, large tracts of barren land, or some times farm land).
I have no sense of the intrinsic worth of gold. For something like diamonds, I believe the worth is a tenth or even lower than the market price (I could be way off).
Sometimes I wonder whether gold is closer to the Egyptian’s version of glass. It’s interesting to see that gold is as big a deal in US as it is in India.
Of course, the “intrinsic” value of anything is difficult [even impossible] to estimate. Intrinsic value of coffee and internet connection… that I can value :)
Gold, dollars, house, which one to keep savings in? May be develop an interest in ammo and booze? :)
S
Does this push any fence-sitters into buy mode? Not for The Kid.
http://realestate.msn.com//article.aspx?cp-documentid=17856930
Gold $1,000
97.
fuel cells
And it looks like shiny is about to bust through the K mark.
something like mifa go
Anytime someone on Bloomberg mentions anything (blah blah blah)-go, it refers to typing in that shortcut into your Bloomberg terminal to pull up the application/data/information.
Bloomberg terminals, their bread and butter, come with very large licensing/leasing fees (at least for the layperson).
From the WSJ:
Interesting part is the last graph.
* FEBRUARY 20, 2009
BofA’s Lewis Subpoenaed Over Merrill; Thain Talks
By SUSANNE CRAIG and DAN FITZPATRICK
Bank of America Chairman and Chief Executive Kenneth Lewis was issued a subpoena by New York State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, who is investigating whether the bank withheld information from investors in violation of state law, according to people familiar with the matter.
Mr. Lewis, who received the subpoena late last week, is the highest-profile subject of Mr. Cuomo’s investigation into the Charlotte, N.C., bank’s purchase of Merrill Lynch & Co. on Jan. 1. Mr. Cuomo’s office is trying to determine if investors were misled about the depth of Merrill’s losses in late 2008 and whether details of the bonuses to Merrill employees, contained in a nonpublic document, should have been disclosed to investors.
[snip]
Mr. Lewis addressed the nationalization speculation during a senior leadership meeting Thursday at the bank’s headquarters, according to a person there. Policy officials in Washington have assured Mr. Lewis that such an option isn’t on the table, the CEO said. He also said he has urged the government to say this publicly.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123509642439429175.html?mod=testMod
jamil (77)-
“Long-term returns in gold have been less than inflation.”
Perhaps you’d like to discuss your definition of “long term” with BC. Is eight years long-term enough for you?
“Foreign paper”? Unless it’s backed by Antarctic penguin guano, I’d take another look at that. Just saying.
Sorry I forgot to insult you. However, please know that you’re still as tedious, repetitive and irritating as ever.
jamil (91)-
Turn on CNBC. There’s a little strip across the top. Wait for the one that says “gold”.
There’s my argument.
Update:
Last year I offered 250K on a house whch was listed at 319K (all time high foer the enighbourhood, about 6 houses on the block all identical)
They countered at 309K and said it was their final and best… I said good luck – it was in March 2008.
Today – that house listing price is …… 259K. MLS ID #2619607 if anybody interested. I moved closer to work and decided that I simply do not want that hellish commute anymore. Otherwise I’d bid on the house…
Probably not 250K anymore.
Mr. Lewis addressed the nationalization speculation during a senior leadership meeting Thursday at the bank’s headquarters, according to a person there. Policy officials in Washington have assured Mr. Lewis that such an option isn’t on the table, the CEO said. He also said he has urged the government to say this publicly.
________________________________________________
The gubbmint will never say it publically. Lewis is a big fat liar. He will be lucky if he does not spend a few years in the slammer.
Clot [104],
He’s just a total moron. Holding paper that is getting thrashed, yet I’m the clown. Can’t make this sheet up.
Sastry (97)-
“I have no sense of the intrinsic worth of gold.”
Neither did this guy:
“Gold is not neccesary. I have no interest in gold. We will build a solid state, without an ounce of gold behind it. Anyone who sells above the set prices, let him be marched off to a concentration camp. That’s the bastion of money.”
-Adolf Hitler
BC (107)-
It is especially soothing knowing that dolts like this have taken the other side of our trade.
It is troubling knowing that dolts like this can rise so far on WS.
#4 safe; For all those people in the article all I can say is cry me a river.
If you want to sell, drop it to a price that will sell it, if not take it off the market
That Monex lady sure fondles those gold coins all sexy like. However, to me they look like those chocolate covered coins, then I get hungry for chocolate.
this poor folk was listening to the radio
Can any realtors tell me if 33 Kensington Dr in 08854 has sold or not? It’s been on the market for months and I’m wondering. Thanks! :)
Barbara:
Gelt trip?
errrm, gold wrapped chocolate coins. YKWIM.
Grim,
Saw your post yesterday about graffiti on McCarter in Newark. I took the picture at the link below as I was walking through Times Square the other day:
http://i92.photobucket.com/albums/l30/hulaman75/ineedabailout.jpg
I walked away wondering if the hat / shirt combo was a political statement of some sort…
#108…
Oh, Boy. Hitler? Hitler?? :( Oh, he was a vegetarian and non-drinker too. Time to alert my colleagues [and many Jewish bosses]!
On a serious note, I have seen the craze of folks in India for wearing tons gold — may be some ancient tribes might have worn tons of tiny bones, and that was a status symbol. They refuse to use it as a currency, and instead use it as a show of wealth. I am sure others have seen a more positive side of gold…
114.
my 5 yr old loves them and I usually eat half
117.
its all cheap sh*t 10k.
Looks like Facebook users are already waiting for this term to end:
“Barack Obama Countdown
Count down the days until Barack Obama is out of office!
This countdown will display the days until January 20, 2013 when Obama will no longer be President of the United States.
The next President won’t be John Mc.Cain, but it may be Mitt Romney, Sarah P.alin, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, or a new rising Republican star. Discuss this and more with other critics of the Obama administration.”
sl
#32 RE: go back to looking at a mule’s ass.
Boy you really do have a butt fixation.
Today is the day bi for SRS, hope you decided to wear a nice new pair of clean shorts.
#119… Indian jewelery is usually [almost always] 22k. The 14k stuff we see here is sneered up on.
S
Hey, I was the only one here with some risk in this deal. You can all buy me a drink at the next GTG. So how long before Bi breaks the restraining order?
“Today is the day bi for SRS, hope you decided to wear a nice new pair of clean shorts.”
bob: “Exchange for goods? You are kidding, no? I can hit a button and it turns to cash instantly. Bread? I can buy 260% more bread that I could in 2001.
You are holding foreign paper, yet I’m a speculator? Every foreign cb is printing and burning up the swap line. Enjoy your debasement.”
Have you cashed any of it?
pets.com stocks and house in 2005 could also have been instantly cashed. Few people did (of if they did, they continued the bubble by buying bigger house or more .dot stocks).
I’m holding foreign paper (I think about 20% of my portfolio) since I may move outside of US, and I need local cash. The future of USD is unclear (as is everything) so I’m diversified, just in case. I’m also buying low-fee stock funds now (within my asset allocation plan, of course, as I don’t want to speculate too much).
But hey, maybe it is different this time. They don’t make any more gold and everybody wants to own gold. Time to buy now. Otherwise you will be priced out of market forever!
anyone hear about the jumbos?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a0O1vDxlPEBA&refer=home
funny how this wasn’t in the news last week
there is a plague on the cocoa beans in africa, so maybe gold and chocolate will soon be equally good investments. Get in on this early folks.
All disclaimers blah blah
I kid
120: “Looks like Facebook users are already waiting for this term to end:”
Chimp-in-chief will be re-elected for life. Why you think ACORN got billions?
123.
Its 10K and brassier than a ghetto bed
Jamil,
And I would have been better off indexing. Right! 2008 was my best year ever investing and 2009 has kicked off to an even better start. Your investing acumen appears only to be outdone by your political sense.
You truly are the king sheep among the sheeple.
#54 frank: Dude who cares, nobody is buying, except for a few that are nto converned by price, and a few moe whoa re clueless.
Don’t tell me about the one that sold, what about the 10, 20, or 100 more that are not selling. That is your market indicator.
Can anyone beat a 15yr @ 4.375%?
Best rate I have locked for a 15yr.. Refinancing my 30yr @ 5.625..
-Richie
“Have you cashed any of it?”
jamil,
For the umpteenth time, I sold, RE, in 9/05. Had owned for 20 years.
“Time to buy now. Otherwise you will be priced out of market forever!”
Not my motto. I locked in during the last move over 1K.
You’re barking up the wrong tree. Nuff said. Enjoy your ride, as will I.
What were our area bottom calls here?
Bottom-Calling: San Diego / Seattle Lag Forecast
& if our late 80’s bottom lasted a good decade then I s’pose there’s no rush but for pride of ownership & warm-fuzzies to buy.
i said bottom calls & 80’s bottom. ha, ha, heh.
172967BP5 CITIGROUP INC SUBNT GLBL 5.625 08/27/12 13.336(M)
bob: “For the umpteenth time, I sold, RE, in 9/05. Had owned for 20 years.”
I was talking about gold. At some point you have to exchange it to something.
Grim,
Bloomberg terminal 15K per month
jamil (125)-
Why don’t you just buy currency the day before you move? Do you feel it’s more advantageous to lose money at the same rate as that local paper while you wait? Will you be better-accepted in your new locality if you can show your losses have been correlated with your new neighbors’?
“I’m holding foreign paper (I think about 20% of my portfolio) since I may move outside of US, and I need local cash.”
I remember your also saying that you may, someday, buy a house here.
Is there anything that you are actually DOING (other that acting as an irritant here)?
US wants Swiss bank UBS to identify tax dodgers
US files suit against Swiss banking giant UBS to learn identities of Americans dodging taxes
DEVLIN BARRETT
AP News
Feb 20, 2009 05:32 EST
Uncle Sam wants UBS to stop hiding tax cheats.
U.S. tax collectors slapped the Swiss-based banking giant with a lawsuit Thursday seeking the identities of tens of thousands of clients who kept billions of dollars in assets at the bank to dodge the IRS. A defiant Swiss president pledged to maintain his country’s bank secrecy laws.
In the suit filed in Miami, the Obama administration wants UBS to turn over information on as many as 52,000 U.S. customers who concealed their accounts from the U.S. government in violation of tax laws.
“At a time when millions of Americans are losing their jobs, their homes and their health care, it is appalling that more than 50,000 of the wealthiest among us have actively sought to evade their civil and legal duty to pay taxes,” the acting assistant attorney general, John DiCicco, said in a statement.
A deal announced Wednesday provides access to about 250 to 300 UBS customers who used Swiss bank secrecy laws to hide assets. To avoid prosecution, UBS agreed to pay $780 million, which Justice Department officials said was the largest ever in a criminal tax case. The bank’s chairman, Peter Kurer, said UBS accepted “full responsibility” for helping its U.S. clients conceal assets from the Internal Revenue Service.
But that does not mean the bank is about to fork over information on thousands of accounts.
On Wednesday, the government claimed in court papers there were close to 20,000 U.S. clients who hid assets through the UBS program. A day later, the number soared to 52,000. U.S. officials offered no immediate explanation for the revised estimate, but it was another sign they are raising the pressure on the Swiss bank.
“This shows the big fight is yet to come,” said George Clarke, a tax lawyer based in Washington who is not involved in the UBS case.
For one, UBS said that except for the 250 to 300 U.S. customers, it will fight to keep all others names private, arguing Swiss secrecy laws shield them.
Hours before the new suit, Switzerland’s president, Hans-Rudolf Merz, said his country will not relent in defending its treasured tradition of confidential bank accounts.
“Banking secrecy, ladies and gentlemen, remains intact,” Merz told reporters.
Merz said Swiss authorities handed over the files on the 250 to 300 American clients of who are suspected of tax fraud. The transfer took place in the middle of the night in the Swiss capital, Bern, just ahead of a U.S. deadline for Swiss cooperation, he said.
But U.S. officials want much more. According to Thursday’s filing, the thousands of accounts in question held about $14.8 billion in assets in the past decade.
Under a 75-year-old law, Swiss banking secrecy can only be lifted when individuals are deemed to have deliberately defrauded tax authorities, as opposed to failing to declare all assets. That is a distinction only Switzerland and other tax havens make.
It is now for a federal judge in Miami to decide whether U.S. courts can force a bank to violate Swiss bank secrecy laws and provide the account information.
According to U.S. officials, an acquisition in 2000 of a U.S. company brought UBS a host of new American clients. The bank then set about to evade new reporting requirements for those clients. To do so, UBS executives helped U.S. taxpayers open new accounts in the names of sham entities.
The clients, in turn, filed false tax returns that omitted the income they earned in their Swiss accounts, according to the court papers.
http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/news/2009/02/us_wants_swiss_bank_ubs_to_identify_tax_dodgers.php
Stu (130)-
He is hopeless. Just a completely stuck individual.
Jamil [136],
For the umpteenth, I am locked in. If it goes to zero, I don’t care. If it goes to 2,500, I lose my premium. Am I wasting put premium?
I don’t “have” to exchange it for anything. However, at some point, I will.
Again, Nuff said.
130 Stu: “and I would have been better off indexing. Right! 2008 was my best year ever investing and 2009 has kicked off to an even better start. Your investing acumen appears only to be outdone by your political sense.”
Yes, gold would have been better option in the last 10 years. However, past performance is not indicative of future performance. At least my fees and taxes have been minimal with index funds [and cash, which is large portion of my AA] and I’m yet to find a long-term example in which index fund did not beat the other investment vehicle.
Btw, by long-term I mean longer than 10 years. I’m saving for retirement and it is decades away. I could not care less if there are occasional hiccups in the market. I know bubbles come and go.
I call troll on Jamil for #136. No one can possibly be that dense.
grim 123 in mod
Tim? Timmmmmah, you there? BSD Paulson would have been all over this fool!
BTW- I pulled some reports off the wire dealing with mortgage subsidy/cramdowns, bank stress tests, technicals and charts. Not sure if anyone is interested or even how I can distribute it.
I can email the zip to whoever wants to go through the trouble of uploading to a sharing site.
JPM is a teenager now! Shine on you Crazy Dimon!
HOV flirting with $1. Is there an oil slick on the Navesink yet?
Damn. Gonna have to wait a while longer for the Bi muzzle. Heaven help us if SRS turns negative today. Bi might spout like the fountains at Bellagio. I am patient.
Clot [143],
Yeah, I’m done.
Clot: “I remember your also saying that you may, someday, buy a house here.”
Yes, this is an option (originally I was convinced I would settle down here – not 100% sure anymore). That’s why I’m hedged. If USD collapses, I can’t just exchange USD to local cash “the day before I move there”. It is far better to have USD and other currencies (and being in the market, of course). I have more than enough cash for house downpayment (either here or outside of US) so I’m saving for retirement. I won’t spend that money for a few decades.
Anyway, need to do some actual work today so save your personal insults for later.
Jamil…I’m pretty busy as well. See you in the PM.
Ha ha.
Totally off-topic question – was it always this cheap to go to the circus? We got top tickets for $12 (with a coupon). Is this a recession special or are circuses just not that expensive?
negative feedback loop is ugly, Pres O must feel like Rick Wagner. He was on public TV the other day and someone asked him how is he handling the perception that US cars are not as good as japanese cars, his answer was based on facts US cars are just as good as japanese cars, the guy asked again but what about the perception? Rick finally, said why don’t you guys ever ask the japanese about perceptions? He said I would but I don’t have that perception, then he said well toyota had more recalls than GM last year and the person said yes that is true but they have a perception of being better. Rick said thank you for your time I have another interview. Pres O is almost in this negative feedback loop himself, has not worked well for old rick wagnor won’t well for him.
Actually it is usually free in DC to visit the senate or congress, are they charging now?
Hobocondo says:
February 20, 2009 at 10:05 am
Totally off-topic question – was it always this cheap to go to the circus? We got top tickets for $12 (with a coupon). Is this a recession special or are circuses just not that expensive?
a 6-handle on the dow by day’s end?
over/under on banks that go under today: 3
when you read garbage like this
http://www.newsday.com/news/nationworld/wire/sns-ap-lahood-vehicle-mileage-tax,0,6754105,print.story
you just wonder
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bmxyj6iInMc
we should just let this MF burn and start over
I just want to say that it’s nice to be 95% allocated into the best performing asset in the world.
Chifi,
You were the one saying diversity and don’t you eggs in one basket…you already won in this game why play another one…blah blah blah
I had no idea that Bama and timmy G will be this fast and this good to me.
In his first 30 days I’m up 30%. Now that merits an “A”. keep up the good work.
actually holding up pretty well today. snyvous or Fifth III are the shaky banks going into weekend. I doubt Citi will get it as they are selling assets and cutting costs and as long as they keep doing that the govt will support them. Trouble is as long as they meet cap requirements that could have a lost decade at $1-3 a share with no dividend until they once again become more profitable as a little bank. BAC I think the govt will get an uproar when it tries to sell siezed assets when the largest bank in the country was armtwisted into doing the merril deal only to find the govt flat-leaved them to die.
chicagofinance says:
February 20, 2009 at 8:50 am
“safe: how long have you been on the site? is this a new handle?”
safeashouses is bairen. New handle.
Required viewing for all NJ RE Report participants. 4 minutes of your life…..
“We live in an amazing, amazing world, and it’s wasted on the crappiest generation of spoiled idiots.”
http://barefootmeg.multiply.com/video/item/56
from Stifel:
“Mortgage Rescue Redux: Kicking At The
Darkness
xxxxx@stifel.com
Kicking At The Darkness
We can’t think of a tag line that better captures the spirit of many of the various rescue programs than the following:
“Got to kick at the darkness ’til it bleeds daylight” – Bruce Cockburn, Lovers In a Dangerous Time
In our view the imagery is powerful and the spirit of relentlessly combating the oppressive blanket of darkness until it is triumphantly overcome inspires feelings of hope and unyielding determination. This seems to resonate with the words
we hear coming out of the current administration in describing how it will confront the challenges of this recession, and the specific language used to describe this modification program.
Stepping away from that positive visceral reaction and actually dissecting the line results in a different conclusion for
us. Kicking at the darkness seems an act of desperation, with no clear objective of what is being kicked at or exactly why one should expect that the kicking is going to bring the arrival of daylight any sooner or make it any brighter once it comes. Perhaps there’s merit in the kicking if it makes us feel better while we wait. On the other hand when the cold light of dawn finally arrives we may discover that during our long hours of fervent struggle all we succeeded in doing
was kicking our children repeatedly in the face.
As we read through the initial details this plan we can’t help thinking that there is a lot of kicking going on without much
real thought given as to exactly how and why it will help the situation. It seems dense with grandiose declarations, but
the substantive details seem a hodgepodge mix of off the cuff ideas designed to address a stream of consciousness series of objections. In our view it reads as if details were rather hurriedly put together during a debate going something like this:
“Servicers haven’t been participating in prior loan modification programs, so how do we get them to embrace this
one?”
“Lets pay them $1000 for every loan they modify.”
“But then what if they just modify loans willy-nilly without caring if it’ll work.”
“Then let’s pay them more money for every month that the modified borrowers stay current.”
“But what if the borrowers get more and more underwater and eventually decide that even with the reduced
payments they’d rather walk away”
“Then we’ll pay those borrowers some more money to stay current too.”
“You mean more money every month, on top of the subsidy we’re already giving them?”
“Sure. A subsidy plus a monthly reward for actually taking the subsidy.”
“Hmm…”
“What else you got?
“Ok. So far lenders and servicers have waited until borrowers go delinquent before they’ll modify loans. How do we
get around that issue?”
“We’ll pay them to modify current borrowers.”
“Pay who? The loan holders or the servicers?”
“Both. Why not. $1500 for the mortgage holder and $500 for the servicer.”
“But we already said we’re paying the servicer $1000 for every modified loan. Is this in addition to that or instead of
that?”
“Yes. I don’t know. Just keep the cash flowing. What else you got?”
“What if prices keep falling and homes keep getting more and more underwater and lenders would just prefer to
foreclose now before prices fall another 20%?”
“Well let’s create a complex insurance fund to protect them against that downside risk.”
“How exactly would that work?”
“I don’t know, let’s dodge that issue for now. We’ll allocate $10B for the program.”
“Is that anywhere near enough?”
“I don’t know.”
“Well it’s a $19T housing market, and if prices fall another 20% that’s $3.8T of value decline. We’re setting aside
$10B as insurance?”
“Stop with the details. Let’s get back to the hard hitting platitudes.”
All of those various payments and incentives are mentioned in the plan. We’re not necessarily suggesting that it won’t
work or that many options weren’t carefully considered to arrive at this precise plan. But in our view the plan reads like
a hastily constructed laundry list of payouts with no clear rationale articulated for what, why, and how big and a
sprinkling of unsubstantiated declarations and vague but powerful sounding assertions thrown in for good measure.”
I didn’t know that was bairen.
Hi, bairen ~~~~~
For the umpteenth, I am locked in.
Hi BC Bob,
So just being a little cautious with puts on shiny, thinking there is a possibility of pullback? I actually am in some gold stocks, but may look at the underlying in a pull back. Think that I have some safety with miners at gold prices above $600-$700. The low cost miners are still quite profitable. Gold futures may be a possibility for me in a consolidation. I tried doing ETF’s in a non-dollar account, but they don’t sell those to US investors.
Grim,
160 in moderation….excerpt from Stifel Nick report on homeowner aid titled – “kicking in the darkness”
John, #157
Didn’t Lewis try to buy ML over the summer, and he was rebuffed?
Going into that big weekend in September, everyone at Lehman thought they were going to be sold to B of A over the weekend.
My impression was that B of A was being courted as a possible savior for Lehman, and turned the tables and went for Merrill instead, which wasn’t in a position to say no at that point.
Then, there’s the question of whether B of A was really going to back away from ML right before the deal closed, and got their arm twisted to do the deal.
Or whether B of A waited until the last minute and threatened to walk away so the government would put in more cash and the guarantees (?)
Or at least that’s my question.
“Kicking At The Darkness
We can’t think of a tag line that better captures the spirit of many of the various rescue programs than the following:
“Got to kick at the darkness ’til it bleeds daylight” – Bruce Cockburn, Lovers In a Dangerous Time
In our view the imagery is powerful and the spirit of relentlessly combating the oppressive blanket of darkness until it is triumphantly overcome inspires feelings of hope and unyielding determination. This seems to resonate with the words
we hear coming out of the current administration in describing how it will confront the challenges of this recession, and the specific language used to describe this modification program.
Stepping away from that positive visceral reaction and actually dissecting the line results in a different conclusion for
us. Kicking at the darkness seems an act of desperation, with no clear objective of what is being kicked at or exactly why one should expect that the kicking is going to bring the arrival of daylight any sooner or make it any brighter once it comes. Perhaps there’s merit in the kicking if it makes us feel better while we wait. On the other hand when the cold light of dawn finally arrives we may discover that during our long hours of fervent struggle all we succeeded in doing
was kicking our children repeatedly in the face.
As we read through the initial details this plan we can’t help thinking that there is a lot of kicking going on without much
real thought given as to exactly how and why it will help the situation. It seems dense with grandiose declarations, but
the substantive details seem a hodgepodge mix of off the cuff ideas designed to address a stream of consciousness series of objections. In our view it reads as if details were rather hurriedly put together during a debate going something like this:
“Servicers haven’t been participating in prior loan modification programs, so how do we get them to embrace this
one?”
“Lets pay them $1000 for every loan they modify.”
“But then what if they just modify loans willy-nilly without caring if it’ll work.”
“Then let’s pay them more money for every month that the modified borrowers stay current.”
“But what if the borrowers get more and more underwater and eventually decide that even with the reduced
payments they’d rather walk away”
“Then we’ll pay those borrowers some more money to stay current too.”
“You mean more money every month, on top of the subsidy we’re already giving them?”
“Sure. A subsidy plus a monthly reward for actually taking the subsidy.”
“Hmm…”
“What else you got?
“Ok. So far lenders and servicers have waited until borrowers go delinquent before they’ll modify loans. How do we
get around that issue?”
“We’ll pay them to modify current borrowers.”
“Pay who? The loan holders or the servicers?”
“Both. Why not. $1500 for the mortgage holder and $500 for the servicer.”
“But we already said we’re paying the servicer $1000 for every modified loan. Is this in addition to that or instead of
that?”
“Yes. I don’t know. Just keep the cash flowing. What else you got?”
“What if prices keep falling and homes keep getting more and more underwater and lenders would just prefer to
foreclose now before prices fall another 20%?”
“Well let’s create a complex insurance fund to protect them against that downside risk.”
“How exactly would that work?”
“I don’t know, let’s dodge that issue for now. We’ll allocate $10B for the program.”
“Is that anywhere near enough?”
“I don’t know.”
“Well it’s a $19T housing market, and if prices fall another 20% that’s $3.8T of value decline. We’re setting aside
$10B as insurance?”
“Stop with the details. Let’s get back to the hard hitting platitudes.”
All of those various payments and incentives are mentioned in the plan. We’re not necessarily suggesting that it won’t
work or that many options weren’t carefully considered to arrive at this precise plan. But in our view the plan reads like
a hastily constructed laundry list of payouts with no clear rationale articulated for what, why, and how big and a
sprinkling of unsubstantiated declarations and vague but powerful sounding assertions thrown in for good measure.””
C and BAC have started their race to 0 again.
http://www.nyse.com/events/1234177977513.html?sa_campaign=/internal_ads/callouts/02102009simodels
THIS IS WHY I LOVE WALL ST!!!
Realtors will do anythink for a sale. A couple years ago telling buyers hurry-up make an offer. Now they tell there sellers hurry-up take whatever offers you can. They will do anythink for that commission. They created these extreme up and down conditions. Hopefully in the future with more internet services we can eliminate realtors and deal direct.
#159 – chicago
they see the default grade as an A.
Dealbreaker has voting on C and BAC nationalization. Options; tonight, Monday, next 60 days?
I am going to try this one last time – is there an online (free) database of Bergen county mortgages?
#160 scribe
Hi scribe.
http://www.newhavenindependent.org/archives/2009/02/netroots_promot.php
He can have my $2,500. It would be a sweet message if Peter can oust Dodd.
Report text:
http://uploading.com/files/QQS22ZPQ/Stifel – Rescue Kicking In The Dark.pdf.html
the whole thing is a link…not just the first part
Scribe(163),
What does it matter? Bama is gonna run BoA and Citi now.
GE and WFC join the zombie squad. Poor Jack Welch, took a perfectly good manufacturing company and turned it into a half-assed subprime and commercial paper lender.
RBC Capital – Stress Test
Download from Uploading.com
#3
“At first glance it’s a gated mansion worthy of a Gilded Age: more than 14,000 square feet with eight bedrooms, 9½ bathrooms, five fireplaces, a pool, a pond, a tennis court and ocean views all nestled amid fields perfect for lavish summer parties.”
************
if anyone has ever visited the Breakers in Newport, it is a great example of how hard super luxury real estate can crash. It was built around the turn of the 19th/20th century for about $3M. It later sold toward the end of the Great Depression for I believe something like $400,000.
Compared to that place, these Hamptons spec-mansions are all POS, so there is no telling how low they could go
Richard Berner – Stim-useless vs Fiscal responsibility
Download from Uploading.com
HP [161],
I anm trading the futures. If I owned it, cash, I wouldn’t bother to hedge.
After big moves, when the temp goes up, I just play cautious. Don’t need to get up at 3:00 AM and check w/London. There has been some major pullbacks, there will be more. I hope I blow my premium. I don’t care if I capture 100% of the move or 90%. Just a little defense.
I luv the miners, big/well capatilized. They have the underlying at close to all time highs. In addition to this, their major cost, energy, has just been sliced close to 70%. To top it off, their currencies have gone south versus the dollar. Just icing on the cake, with the product priced in dollars.
ALL DISCLAIMERS.
#177 skep-tic,
Those houses in Newport are awesome. These modern mansions are pos in comparison.
Those predators have become the prey.
“It’s interesting to see that gold is as big a deal in US as it is in India.”
It’s rare, it’s divisible, it’s shiny, it doesn’t tarnish, it can’t be counterfeited, oh yeah, and it’s the one of two currencies that have lasted for thousands of years.
more OT than housing: Goldman Sachs – Weekly Options Watch
Download from Uploading.com
sorry for the 90 second wait
gotta give credit where credit is due to BC Bob gold at $1,000 never thought it would happen and if I did think it would happen never this quick. Crazy. hate to be a guy ring shopping in this recession.
From Bloomberg:
Jumbo Defaults Rise at Fastest Pace Since 1992 as Rich Suffer
A state by state breakdown would show the ugliness descending upon NJ.
Berner – Traction Key To Recovery
Download from Uploading.com
Barclay’s – Cramdowns
Download from Uploading.com
Stifel – No Relief In Sight
Download from Uploading.com
DBank – Fixing Zombie Banks
Download from Uploading.com
Stifel – No Relief In Sight
Download from Uploading.com
DBank – Fixing Zombie Banks
Download from Uploading.com
Grim,
187 in moderation….
DBank – Fixing Zombie Banks
Stifel – No Relief In Sight
Berner – Traction Key To Recovery
Barclay’s – Cramdowns
Most people I know have platinum rings nowadays.
John says:
February 20, 2009 at 11:02 am
gotta give credit where credit is due to BC Bob gold at $1,000 never thought it would happen and if I did think it would happen never this quick. Crazy. hate to be a guy ring shopping in this recession.
Most people I know have platinum rings nowadays.
Hobo,
Platinum is at $1080. The reason shiny is where it is it’s because it’s traded as a currency and not a comoddity.
Believe that.
make money says:
February 20, 2009 at 10:16 am
I just want to say that it’s nice to be 95% allocated into the best performing asset in the world.
Chifi, You were the one saying diversity and don’t you eggs in one basket…you already won in this game why play another one…blah blah blah
albani: you calling me out?
Grim –
How about the concept of “mark to market” applied to real estate?
Mark your house to what the market will bear, and you’ll sell it. It’s not rocket science.
Citi under $2!
BAC $3.27!
Muzzle just $5.50 away. Come on muzzle!
make,
Just lock in gains.
It’s rare, it’s divisible, it’s shiny, it doesn’t tarnish, it can’t be counterfeited, oh yeah, and it’s the one of two currencies that have lasted for thousands of years.
One thing is supply here can be inflated as well. With mining increasing there can eventually be an oversupply of gold with little use for it in an industrial capacity. Though it’s a little harder than printing money, which requires chopping a few trees and flicking the switch of the printing press. As a relative store of value, I have become a gold bug. I’m becoming more interested in black gold as well.
Vic (146)-
Don’t disrespect Syd like this.
“JPM is a teenager now! Shine on you Crazy Dimon!”
I’ve caught my son digging for gold. He appears to have an endless supply.
I luv the miners, big/well capatilized.
BC – I took a bit of risk and also looked at soon to operate miners. There has been some big moves here. Not as much leverage as futures, but good enough and with some cushion with low cost reserves.
Road to Riches ends for 20 million Chinese
http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/asiapcf/02/20/china.economy.family/index.html
Stu says:
February 20, 2009 at 11:27 am
I’ve caught my son digging for gold. He appears to have an endless supply
hahaha… mine strikes a good vein once in a while too!
“I’m becoming more interested in black gold as well.”
HP,
Ditto.
http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/intchart.asp?symb=FITB&sid=1914&dist=TQP_chart_date&freq=1&time=9
#169 Ricky_nu
No online database, you have to take a trip to county records.
Texas Tea…
is it too early to start impeachment hearings?
“is it too early to start impeachment hearings?”
Nice!
If you expect the equities market to thrive in the current environment…you are dreaming.
Zombie HIG is now entering rigor mortis.
Somebody pull the plug.
John,
How many bond positions do you have that are staring at cramdowns this weekend?
Zeiba: Thanks for posting those articles. They reconfirm pretty much everything we have discussed on board.
On Home price trend the article mentions,
On average these suggest home prices should fall another 17.8% from current levels, assuming a 4Q09 convergence
to trend and 1% inflation in 2009. (If inflation runs at 0% then the expected remaining decline would be 19%, or if the convergence happens later the fall could be lower.)
I think most here actually think the prices will overshoot on downside as well. I am guessing we are probably going back to 1999 prices.
John says:
February 20, 2009 at 11:02 am
“gotta give credit where credit is due to BC Bob gold at $1,000 never thought it would happen ”
I think BC has been the most accurate of any of us in his predictions.
Gold, housing, Lehman, AIG etc. Called them all.
#210 lisoosh,
But he can predict the winner on Idol or Survivor? :)
Sadly, that really is what most people are more aware of.
gold will buy the DOW.
just wait & see.
i loved the 1970s :)
SAS
now this board got so excited. i know it is the time to add positions.
#213 bi,
Which ones?
since srs is so weak today, pulling back from muzzler’s target, i wouldn’t be too surprise to see all major indices close positive today.
Sellers can only dream of the prices of yesterday. WAKE UP you dumb ass. Those days are OVER. Start at $1.00 & the market will dictate the actual price of the current market value. You watch how fast bids come in. I don’t care about the seller or insulting anyone. Your house is over priced & I’m not going to over extend myself. Greed was fun when prices were soaring.
not much, maybe 80K
Clotpoll says:
February 20, 2009 at 11:38 am
John,
How many bond positions do you have that are staring at cramdowns this weekend?
“since srs is so weak today, pulling back from muzzler’s target, i wouldn’t be too surprise to see all major indices close positive today.”
Back up da truck!
http://www.newsday.com/business/ny-bztrump0221,0,5623289.story
Your fired Mr. Trump!!
If we make it through weekend with out C or BAC going under and the wizzard of O and Timmy G keep their feet out of their mouths and stop trying to help by spraying gas on the fire we may just manage a big bear rally next week.
Stu says:
February 20, 2009 at 12:12 pm
“since srs is so weak today, pulling back from muzzler’s target, i wouldn’t be too surprise to see all major indices close positive today.”
Back up da truck
1999 prices ?! for sfh?
no way frickin way
what’s the avg. comp kill price up until now? ’04? It’ll be ’01 at best worst case, ’02 for the masses.
+ there is far too much pant up demand in non-sfh that is building (anecedotal i’m saying)
BRING BACK GEORGE BUSH!!!!!!
“It’ll be ‘01 at best worst case, ‘02 for the masses.”
2001 is baked into the cake. However, like any market, this will overshoot. Let’s party like it’s 1999.
“Girl Scouts robbed as they sell cookies outside store”
http://www.woai.com/news/local/story/Girl-Scouts-robbed-as-they-sell-cookies-outside/qqnmg6g66E-A34NOkFWAFQ.cspx
iThink
The 2 major income sources in the state are dead (pharma and IB).
plus housing is over built in NJ.
1998 here we come!
Rumors a flyn’ Banamex is going back to Mexico and out of the hands of C.
Mr. Greenberg, single and 37 in 2005, married and 41 and with child(ren) in 2009. At 37 years old in 2005 he saw nothing in a family way on the horizon? Please.
#224 – That’s just sad…
FTFA;
They were doing pretty well for themselves too.
Here is a stock to buy, Cabellas. They beat expectations because of strong gun sales!
Now if only they sold grenade launchers….
http://www.businesswire.com/portal/site/google/?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20090219006053&newsLang=en
Guess who’s comin’?
Saturday, August 1st (Atlantic City)
Monday, August 3rd (New York)
BC 224 When they get this guy I hope some bodies gun misfires. Or we could just put him in a room with the girls’ fathers. If they don’t have one around I volunteer. Better yet lets let SAS have him I’m sure he could come up with something once it got out would prove to be a deterrent from such behavior.
MIW [231],
I agree, pin his #ss to the wall.
Ithink 221 You are shooting to high or low depending on how you look at it. We are blowing through 2002 up by me 1999 is just around the block. 1 more year, in the out backs & we will be there.
Dare I posit that JPM is nearing the zombie zone?
C with a 1 handle. Still overpriced.
C deserves to be in the pink sheets.
Lost: full track list
CD 1
1. In Chains
2. Hole To Feed
3. Wrong
4. Fragile Tension
5. Little Soul
6. In Sympathy
7. Peace
8. Come Back
9. Spacewalker
10. Perfect
11. Miles Away / The Truth Is
12. Jezebel
13. Corrupt
CD 2 (B-sides)
1. Light
2. The Sun And The Moon And The Stars
3. Ghost
4. Esque
5. Oh Well
Where the heII have I been?!?!?!
Buying a building and getting so batschitt crazy from the process I’m staring at the bottle of Bailey’s in my fridge with drool just like Jamil has hanging from the corner of his mouth.
*Everyone*, except the engineer is an a**-dragger.
I set the deadline for receiving all the board of adjustment application components as today, only the engineer prevailed.
I need a straw for that bottle of Baileys.
From Marketwatch, re: Madoff trustee meeting; No securities purchased for customers in 13 years… 13 Years.
At this point I can only conclude the SEC must have been actively abetting in the cover-up and are party to Madoff’s criminal actions.
So my bank says “hey, you are gonna wanna take a closer look at those 40 year old in-the-ground auto lifts (read: underground hydraulic tanks) before we give you money…
Hilarity: 82 yr old seller was USING THEM AS A SELLING POINT.
OMFG. WTF???? HELLO????
(That and the fact that he “just painted the place 15 years ago”…) (oh, and he was a pool contractor, place is painted “POOL AQUA”…)
I almost threw up when he said he had “just painted”…and told us it had “lifts”…
sweet jeebus some people need to be culled.
Does BAC go out with a 2-handle today?
Hope Timmay’s go some No-Doz. He’s gonna need it this weekend.
‘tosh:
WMG!!! 13 years?!?!
spam (239)-
Eugenics is a tidier way of dealing with that problem.
Stop the mistakes from happening. That’s what I always say.
“Does BAC go out with a 2-handle today?”
Clot,
How about HOV, double digits.
Chi,
Is the fountain still flowing?
CLot (240):
The gubbmint better have some intervention with C and BAC or it’s lights out for the entire market next week. We are in the same spot we were in Oct-Nov.
Thanks to all for posting here. It’s not like we did not see this coming. It is amazing and heartbreaking to watch.
today feels like late Sept again
Tosh (238),
there is nothing to worry then he’s a genious and has “outperformed” the market.
BC (243)-
How many days under $1.00 do you have to go before delisting by the NYSE?
A question for those here who have a deeper knowledge than I…
In the event of nationalization in which equity holders get the shaft and bond holders become new equity holders, would this constitute a default and give CDS holders a right to collect?
So my lawyer convinces 82 yr old seller to dig up lifts (to remove) before we close on deal.
Contractor comes to remove lifts this past Monday. So much oil came rushing back into the holes that the neighbor ACROSS THE STREET complained about the oil smell…thought something spilled.
Seller wants to know if contractor can just throw dirt in hole.
*nice*
Twsp inspector is sharp. Says real deadpan like: “It’s no problem, XXX…you just need a certificate from the DEP. Get that and you’re good…”
Seller thinks DEP will “fax” him a letter saying “you’re special, XX…don’t worry about it.”
*Today.* Thought he’d get the letter TODAY. Because those newfangled faxes are fast now.
HOV 0.90 -0.19 -17.42%
tosh (248)-
I believe a cramdown is a credit event.
All equity holders get blown out, and then debt holders are crammed down in order from junior to senior.
GM back to 1938 prices. Who wants to bet they take out the 1933 low straight into BK.
Clot[247],
I believe that NYSE can begin delisting procedures after 30 days, if the stock remains under $1.00. Not positive though.
#246 – he’s a genious and has “outperformed” the market
Well, obvs!
Seriously, the SEC never looked at any of the clearing house records to see wether or not trades were being made.
NYSE has a program where you can stay under a dollar for a long long time, Unisys has been under a buck for a long time, loved them when I was a child, their Sperry Typewriter was da bomb.
tosh (254)-
SEC and CIA were helping Madoff. No doubt about it.
Only question is: where did the money go, and what did it buy?
We will never get the answers.
#252 I would take that as proof positive that there is a God.
Watch HOV do a reverse split. That’s more in keeping with that greaseball’s MO.
most cds are for bks, gvt cramdown ain’t an event for most cds so you get the double donger, your 10,000,000 million position gets chopped down and the 400,000 you spent on the cds ain’t worth spit. the worst of both worlds.
#251 – So there’s potentially big knock-on effects from CDS counterparties covering the default from nationalization of C, BAC, WFC or JPM…
Hearing that there is good, authentic Middle Eastern food on Main Street in Clifton. I assume because it borders Paterson.
Thoughts?
Just remember – I KNOW authentic ME. No poncy trussed up approximations.
Don’t laugh, Unisys is doing a 10 to one reverse split soon to get from 60 cents to six.
.vix at 50.46. Getting interesting now.
#259 – Thanks John….
# 132 Richie – any points with the 4.375% 15 year fixed rate?
tosh (260)-
I’m gonna take a wild guess and say that highway runs through two very dicey tunnels:
1. AIG (throwing up in my mouth a little)
2. JPM (barely able to contain my secret glee)
FXP almost 42 again.
#256 – Clot – CIA were helping Madoff
Has anyone seriously floated this idea yet?
/not committing to belief or disbelief on such a idea.
Does Cramer still have the calendar on the wall with the bottom circled on it?
Douche bag!
John (259)-
Following from that, do you think Timmay and crew are doing what the gubmint in the UK appears to be doing (i.e., seriously considering letting the banks fail)?
I wish my #266 would come true. Drat.
tosh (268)-
sas, I believe.
However, my pal who is heading the SEC investigation into Madoff still doesn’t bat an eyelash when I float this by him “in jest”.
Of course, I have yet to run this trial balloon by him when he has had less than three Knob Creeks.
“CIA were helping Madoff”
Considering the lack of collective intelligence of the sheeple, and the complete incompetence of our government regulators, I think Madoff needed little help. They should waterboard this greedy bastard until he reveals where he hid his loot.
wow, market cratering
7261!
OT: Talking with a booomer the other day. He said, “Boomers invented the internet and won the Cold War. Our kids invented mortgage backed securities and credit default swaps. And they complain about us??” I have no comment. Just thought I’d toss a hand grenade into the group on a sleepy Friday afternoon with nothing else going on.
#272 – If I remember correctly quite a bit of the money flowing through BCCI and some of the Fla. S&Ls that collapsed in the early 90s was agency cash, so the idea is not without precedence.
The less said about Banco Ambrosiano the better.
#252 and #257… Re: GM…
Just curious… Does the price include dividends (I presume it includes splits)?
I am not nitpicking, since the counter point would be inflation…
People sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf.” — George Orwell
Where the heck is the PPT?
Let me guess Standford was holding on to their money in the Carrebian?
Is this administartion even capable of putting together a PPT team to buy up shit with other people’s money?
What a coincidence: look what just popped into my “Inbox”. From Smith Barney (Citipoop):
Special Comment
Government Support of the Banking Sector and the Potential Impact on Preferred Securities: Frequently Asked Questions
“What form has the government’s capital infusion into US banks taken thus far? Why has concern risen recently?
Capital infusions into US banks made through the Troubled Asset Relief Plan (TARP) have been made in exchange for preferred stock. Therefore, the US government is not a common equity holder. This has helped many banks to bolster core capital (i.e. Tier 1
capital) without diluting existing common equity. However, while Tier 1 capital has increased as a result of infusions through TARP, tangible common equity (another important balance sheet metric) has deteriorated further as banks recently reported large
losses with fourth quarter 2008 results. There has been an increased concern that banks will have to raise more equity capital and the only investor that could provide this capital
in a meaningful way in the current environment is the US government.
Investors are concerned that a large equity investment by the US government would dramatically dilute common equity shareholders or even eradicate common equity shareholder value. What would further government intervention mean to holders of preferred securities? It is unclear, but the most pressing issue relates to preferred distributions. There have been limited examples of significant governmental ownership that have impacted holders of preferreds. Of the examples, in some recent cases, the institutions involved have continued to service preferred securities while in other cases, preferred securities payments were suspended. We believe that increased governmental intervention could increase the likelihood of preferred payment deferral.
What is the impact of the recent Financial Stability Plan (FSP) on preferred holders?
We believe the FSP demonstrates the US government’s intention to support private market participation and shows sensitivity to private investors. Under the FSP, banks would be subjected to a stress test. Those that fail the stress test would receive additional government capital in exchange for preferreds that could convert into equity. FSP capital recipients would adhere to a number of restrictions including a limitation on common
stock dividends ($0.01 per quarter). Under the FSP, there is no requirement to suspend or defer distributions to preferred shareholders. (Note that generally preferred payments can only be suspended once common dividends have been suspended.) For preferred shareholders, there is a measure of relief in that the Treasury’s program does not directly impact preferred shareholders’ distributions.
Might a preferred issuer suspend distributions without further government intervention?
Yes, an issuer can make this decision at any time. In the current environment, we believe generally that preferred distribution suspension risk remains low but has risen in recent
weeks and months; and that this risk may continue to rise as bank losses mount. This risk is driven by the need for capital preservation in general. However, it is the potential need for more capital from the government that is raising concern in the preferred market today, as it could increase regulatory / political pressure on issuers to suspend preferred
distributions.”
Felix says:
February 20, 2009 at 1:12 pm
# 132 Richie – any points with the 4.375% 15 year fixed rate?
0 points; 790 credit score..
ouch John, my citi bonds are hurting, i bought them at 96 a month ago but now there at 85 with citi walking to the electric chair
I bought the citicorp subordinates 2011 because when lehman failed all the assets were tied to the sub debt but i didnt read all the documents on these citi bonds, i just bought with the assumption that gov would nationalize and save the day by throwing money all over the place.
I also heard a good argument that bank bondholders are mostly other banks, so gov will not want to hose the bondholders. basically, if they nationalize, they become the bondholders. dont know how true that is but if i lose money on these citi bonds i want a bailout
Historically this is when you want to sell SKF and wait for a better day to reload.
I just got rid of it at 205 and I’m having regrets already.
Bama,
Please step in and buy up something. Sell Gold. Do something. Don’t let everything blow up in a month for gods sake.
Bi,
Are you buying anything?
make (229)-
The PPT’s Caribbean trading desk is still out on the cricket pitch, waiting for Sir Allen.
I think they’ve had a few too many Red Stripes today, also.
We are approaching the end of days…. my parents want an iphone
veto (282)-
At least the gubmint moves up a couple of notches from a preferred share position that could be blasted to smithereens.
“I also heard a good argument that bank bondholders are mostly other banks, so gov will not want to hose the bondholders. basically, if they nationalize, they become the bondholders.”
Bi and hold.
Clot (284) –
“The PPT’s Caribbean trading desk is still out on the cricket pitch, waiting for Sir Allen.”
– I think they are playing a test match.
“Bi and hold.”
Stu – ROFL!! Post of the day!
http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3ASRS
nah nah nah nah
nah nah nah nah
hey hey hey
good BI
toshiro_mifune says:
February 20, 2009 at 1:01 pm
A question for those here who have a deeper knowledge than I…
In the event of nationalization in which equity holders get the shaft and bond holders become new equity holders, would this constitute a default and give CDS holders a right to collect?
tosh: problems with private counterparties and no standards; there is no blanket answer to that one
Clot, BC, Vict,
Could you only imagine if SRS behaved the way it was supposed to?
#275
““Boomers invented the internet and won the Cold War”
internet is debateable but they definitely didn’t win the cold war
From the Otteau Report:
“Further evidence that the market cycle is nearing an end is found in the number of homes on the market, which have now declined for 7-consecutive months. Unsold-inventory in New Jersey is now down by 14,000 fewer homes as compared to the high water market which occurred in May of last year. This 19% decline coupled with a more stable sales pace suggests that the trend of declining home prices should end sometime this year.
It’s still too soon to celebrate as a 17 month supply of unsold inventory coupled with a weak economy and severe financial market problems will likely drive home prices lower over the short term. However, the dramatic improvement in housing affordability as a result of lower home prices and mortgage interest rates may result in an over-correction of home prices. In other words, the extraordinary financial crisis we find ourselves in will likely cause the pendulum of home price declines to go deeper than necessary from an affordability standpoint. In that event, look for a rapid rise in the pace of home sales and mortgage interest rates once the economy gets back on its feet. Prospective home buyers should therefore be wary of waiting too long as the opportunity window of the present housing crisis will likely close quickly once the recovery begins.”
I always felt this guy was in bed with the Realtors…..
well, I took out a bit of extra cash just now just in case Mr. O decides to have a fireside chat with us Sunday night
Stu says:
February 20, 2009 at 1:41 pm
Clot, BC, Vict, Could you only imagine if SRS behaved the way it was supposed to?
It is….
the bell tolls for thee
http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/asiapcf/02/20/china.economy.family/index.html
Stu (292)-
I like that SRS is being front-run by SKF. At the end of the day, these two correlate. They are both pointed at the same brick wall; it’s just that SKF is going 150 mph and SRS is doing about 90.
answer the question…..
make money says:
February 20, 2009 at 10:16 am
Chifi, You were the one saying diversity and don’t you eggs in one basket…you already won in this game why play another one…blah blah blah
albani: you calling me out?
Did the Bank runs start yet? Should I load up my rifle tonight to defend my pot of gold?
HOV 0.79 -0.30 -27.48%
ChiFi:
“Clot, BC, Vict, Could you only imagine if SRS behaved the way it was supposed to?
It is….”
You know what I mean ;)
ou tof stater 275
the boomers till run the show. No one is innocent in this mess, but the boomers fell into the classic trap that most other civilizations have.
Once a population gets to a certain level of prosperity, they lose the drive and risk tolerance that got them there in the first place, because to do otherwise risks their new found prosperity.
So while the boomers may have presided over this stage of american empire, they simply fell for the same human frailties that has brought down most other major empires.
You see this in everything from recess and playgrounds being banned, to the “i DESERVE my C class ” mentality. When a nation losses the hunger to rise above the crowd and becomes assured of its own greatness, it is set to fall.
Sean,
Made a little trip to the bank this morning. The teller mentioned that this week has seen an unusually large # of withdrawals in cash….
purely anecdotal, but maybe the sheep are stirring
#295 A fireside chat – good God you might be right.
what effect do you think hov going under will have on 77 hudson? firesale?
vodka (303)-
We are devo.
“A fireside chat”
Only problem is that the entire house is burning.
This would be great theatre;
“Those same Ron Paul forces are now gathering dollars and potential workers to propel Schiff into taking on Democrat Dodd. Dodd’s popularity ratings have tanked in the wake of a personal financial mini-scandal and his stewardship of the widely criticized 2008 bank-bailout bill.”
http://www.newhavenindependent.org/archives/2009/02/netroots_promot.php
And Citi is at $1.83 and BAC could breech $3 mark.
BAC was down around $2.75 at one point today.
oh, look, it’s the gold bugs
http://www.dougbelshaw.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2007/07/unique.jpeg
all i’m sayin’ is you’re a demographic like a bunch of goth kids. you can’t be a black swan after the black swan, ya know?
stu,
you seem to like FXP<
look at mish today?
Predictions for the close?
I’m going with 7220 on the DJIA.
Kettle1:
Not yet, but I will now. ;)
Picture of Clot, at his first soccer match;
http://dailybail.com/home/2009/2/19/insane-america-obama-wants-you-to-bailout-the-asshats-who-li.html?ref=patrick.net
Kettle1,
I have only two short positions. SRS and FXP and both are similarly sized. We are doing just fine and I’ve had ’em for many months already. Hopen’s prediction and mine are quite similar and based on similar thoughts. Thanks for the link.
BC,
Denniger is suggesting that the currency dislocations this past week are the beginning of a flight from the US led by the hedgies
thoughts
John,
Does this turn you on?
http://tinyurl.com/johns-orgy
PPT in action
OT; Manny’s music closing at the end of May.
nuts
BC (317)-
Now, there’s a righteous footballer. :)
I think I saw that kid at a Red Bull match…
Functioning link for the above
Not the PPT. Just options expiration Friday. I expect to hear an announcement any minute now.
WOW Timmay is at work!!!
Now that’s odd, happened again…
Raw link below?
lostnewyorkcity.blogspot.com/2009/02/mannys-to-close-in-may-entire-music-row.html
HAHAHA I hear the FED is going to announce a surprise rate cut:)
talk about independent and objective analyis, bill gross says nationalization is a good idea for banks as long as they gurantee their credit and bond obligations. Wow, amazing.
Things are just getting heated up. The last 90 minutes will be a roller coaster.
John,
Classic!
I think one of the Caribbean guys spilled beer on his Bloomberg box.
The media is just an extension of the political arm. All this talk about nationalization is a way to ease the public into the idea that nationalization has to occur.
Suggest your alternatives?
Not edible unless cooked:
http://tinyurl.com/c5ev59
The realtors here forget to mention. That 90% of real estate transactions are in the positive, only 10% are in the negative. Even if it reaches 20% for a year or two, it is not that bad. This is just a market adjustment, not a crash.
Rich
I don’t know if your #’s are right %90 positive but I said this before
35
the problem isn’t sellers and their asking prices its the idiots still buying at close to these asking prices
Rich (335)-
I will be sure to mention that to my selling clients. That should bring them great comfort.
Sheesh.
The invitation is open, Rich. Come spend a week with me, then tell me what you think.
kettle [319],
Flight from the US by hedgies? What is he talking about?
“This is just a market adjustment, not a crash.”
Hello, Dick Fuld, meet Rich.
Fox wins FOIA suit against Treasury. Good, we might get to see some of what’s going on.
The only flight that makes sense is away from paper currency denominated investments, weather it be Dollars, pounds, Euros, etc currency debasement isn’t just a possibility but the stark reality,
Damn. Gonna have to wait till next week for the muzzle. So close!
options expiration
http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/options/calendar.aspx
here is an incoherent member of the O team trying to justify the housing bailout:
***************
People need to get a larger perspective on the mortgage plan, says Jared Bernstein, chief economist for Vice President Joseph Biden. He says even people who have done everything right have been hurt by the mortgage crisis.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1041314987&play=1
Jared Bernstein is a simpering, wussy-boy liberal douchebag.
Stu,
It may be a few. Was close though.
BC
You may be betting a little too much on gold. If we have a currency change, I would be rather sitting on my RE with the rent role from new Amero’s.
I really think O and company have overestimated the stupidity/apathy of the public w/r/t this housing bailout idea. What they are proposing is pretty basic when you get down to it and they cannot explain it away
You guys are seriously getting too worked up about a $75B bailout which won’t work, while a trillion has been squandered over a bailout which *did not* work.
Maybe that is the whole ploy by the government, play serf against serf, while the rich boys make off with the loot. Seriously, does 75B even register on the scale? Hell, 18B were given out as bonuses to 700 Merrill guys. Did not such a rant from Santelli back then.
And I did not see Santelli complaining when GE got the TARP money.
Clotpoll says:
February 20, 2009 at 2:04 pm
vodka (303)- We are devo.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mMiGNS5L9kk&feature=related
spam spam bacon spam says:
Twsp inspector is sharp. Says real deadpan like: “It’s no problem, XXX…you just need a certificate from the DEP. Get that and you’re good…”
Seller thinks DEP will “fax” him a letter saying “you’re special, XX…don’t worry about it.”
*Today.* Thought he’d get the letter TODAY. Because those newfangled faxes are fast now.
Hey Spam, who is picking up the tab for enviromental inspection, soil testing and remediation if needed??
I wonder if building is worth enough in today’s market….
Not Buyer I hope??
Rich [347],
You think? You have no idea how I am positioned. That said, I guarantee your long RE has much more inherent risk than my long gold.
Enjoy your seat.
answer the question…..
make money says:
February 20, 2009 at 10:16 am
Chifi, You were the one saying diversity and don’t you eggs in one basket…you already won in this game why play another one…blah blah blah
albani: you calling me out?
No sir. You’re an educated loyalty I’m just a peasant and a lucky flipper. I’m brainless. I don’t work on Wall street.
i’d rather have a fireside chat with al sharpton, was outside nyse and the new name for wall street is the blvd of broken dreams.
BC Bob says:
long re is always more risky, you can’t get out quick and there is no mark to market pricing, you only know what prices were three months ago and it takes you three to six months to get out. No one would ever buy a stk or bd that had such poor price transparancy or liquidity.
February 20, 2009 at 3:10 pm
Rich [347],
You think? You have no idea how I am positioned. That said, I guarantee your long RE has much more inherent risk than my long gold.
Enjoy your seat.
Tosh, Chi:
A “nationalization” in which equity gets the shaft and bonds get converted to equity would likely be considered an event of default under all applicable agreements, which would normally give the counterparty, i.e. CDS holders, termination rights, i.e., the right to collect.
However, in most insolvency situations (bankruptcy, state receivership for insurance companies, etc), so-called “ipso facto” clauses (giving power to terminate and/or collect upon commencement of an insolvency proceeding) are unenforceable. Their standing in the “nationalization” proceeding would likely depend upon whether they’re treated as secured or unsecured creditors.
Also, what’s with all the index investing bashing. 50% drops in the DOW happen regularly, what’s the big deal. I’ll hold by the Peter Lynch saying, “Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections or anticipating corrections than has been lost in the corrections themselves.”
“Stanford scandal ensnares Yankees’ Damon, Nady”
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/9243638/Stanford-scandal-ensnares-Yankees'-Damon,-Nady?MSNHPHMA
one of those not too rare saturdays where I will be up at 6am waiting for the WSJ to plop on my front lawn.
verzon having big time problems with volume on wsj right now, hold onto your hats!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
#356 – Thanks.
#349
I think we can consider the merits of the housing bailout on its own, rather than measuring it against the merits of prior bailouts. And the total price tag for this one is $275B ($200B going to fannie/freddie to do the refis on top of the $75B going directly to debtors and mortgage servicers).
The reason this is getting people so upset is because it is so basic. The gov’t is taking from some individuals and giving directly to other individuals, rather than to institutions. Practically, I see your point that this may not amount to a meaningful difference, but I think symbolically, it is a huge step in the direction of outright collectivism
Frank- These are listing not closing prices busy day but better late than never
Hoboken under contracts
75 jefferson street: mls #90000186
listed price $549000
Last sold for 590k in 2006 73-75 JEFFERSON ST #4
Sale Date: 03/09/06 Book: 7843 Page: 84 Price: 590000 NU#: 0
Sr1a Date Book Page Price NU# Ratio Grantee
More Info 03/09/06 7843 84 590000
50k loss in three years if it sells at asking with no sales expenses included.
John says:
February 20, 2009 at 3:16 pm
verzon having big time problems with volume on wsj right now, hold onto your hats!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
English please…..
make money says:
February 20, 2009 at 3:11 pm
No sir. You’re an educated loyalty I’m just a peasant and a lucky flipper. I’m brainless. I don’t work on Wall street.
make: ?
NJMLS Bergen County Sales Feb 1 – Feb 20
CARLSTADT, 24 ZUEGEL CT
SOLD: $225,000 3/8/1994
SOLD: $500,000 3/31/2006
SOLD: $326,300 2/6/2009
DEMAREST, 109 LENOX AVE
SOLD: $720,000 7/18/2005
SOLD: $630,000 2/17/2009
DUMONT, 237 W MADISON AVE
SOLD: $375,000 10/28/2004
SOLD: $265,000 12/29/2008
FAIRVIEW, 54 SPRUCE ST
SOLD: $373,000 11/1/2006
SOLD: $300,000 2/11/2009
HACKENSACK, 85 SPRING VALLEY AVE
SOLD: $480,000 11/11/2005
SOLD: $360,000 2/19/2009
NORTHVALE, 156 SCHARER AVE
SOLD: $400,000 7/16/2007
SOLD: $385,000 2/11/2009
OAKLAND, 52 SILVER BIRCH AVE
SOLD: $392,000 11/18/2005
SOLD: $340,000 2/2/2009
SADDLE BROOK, 578 LARCH AVE
SOLD: $370,000 6/19/2007
SOLD: $337,000 2/9/2009
SADDLE BROOK, 411 VICTOR ST
SOLD: $425,000 7/15/2005
SOLD: $405,000 2/9/2009
TEANECK, 1671 RENSSELAER RD
SOLD: $415,000 2/17/2006
SOLD: $229,000 2/18/2009
TEANECK, 20 BOGERT ST
SOLD: $325,000 3/23/2004
SOLD: $370,000 5/2/2005
SOLD: $340,000 2/14/2009
TENAFLY, 163 NEWCOMB RD
SOLD: $1,535,000 3/1/2006
SOLD: $1,360,000 2/13/2009
UPPER SADDLE RIVER, 42 HILLSIDE AVE
SOLD: $742,500 1/10/2003
SOLD: $765,000 2/6/2009
WASHINTON TOWNSHIP, 354 HICKORY ST
SOLD: $459,900 11/10/2004
SOLD: $430,000 2/6/2009
18 million options contracts today!!!
also, if we are going to put everyone on the dole, can we at least get mandatory 9 weeks of vacation, 35 hr work week and top-less beaches like france too?
verzon reconnected, verzon connects bds to xchanges with very heavy vol that damm thing sometimes blows, nearly just did it.
chart showing the ratio of Home Prices and Median Income
I am thinking of moving to CA now…
Bay Area home sales top last year again; median drops to $300K
http://dqnews.com/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay090219.aspx
NJ/NYC is officially, by far, most expensive area of the coutry!!
Frak – you are right, no recession here.
Regarding earlier posts on Hamptons rentals, I’m actually going out there next weekend, and will be looking at rentals for the summer. I plan to offer less than asking. I will let you know what happens and what I see. Just as anecdotal evidence in case anyone is interested.
CA is back to 1999 prices, as YoY drop is astonishing 45%!!! In a year!!!
The median price paid for all new and resale houses and condos combined in the nine-county Bay Area fell to $300,000 last month. That was down 9.1 percent from $330,000 in December and down a record 45.5 percent from $550,000 in January 2008.
The January median sale price – the point where half of the homes sold for more and half for less – stood at its lowest since it was $299,000 in December 1999. It was 54.9 percent below the peak median of $665,000 reached in June and July of 2007.
same link as above
BC (352)-
This guy sounds uncomfortably similar to the dear, departed Reechard.
John (358)-
I thought only Mexicans plopped on your front lawn.
“I will be up at 6am waiting for the WSJ to plop on my front lawn.”
#372
it’s like magic. prices down 40% and transactions UP 45%. but remember: markets are broken
Funny how fast everybody’s lost their taste for the new American soci@lism.
Actually they went home for the winter.
Clotpoll says:
February 20, 2009 at 3:45 pm
John (358)-
I thought only Mexicans plopped on your front lawn.
“I will be up at 6am waiting for the WSJ to plop on my front lawn.”
Berkshire’s Class A shares fell as much as 6.2 percent to $73,750, their lowest level since August 2003,
BAC’s Lewis announces they don’t need any more gubmint help.
Kiss of death.
btw citi holders Berkshire Hathaway Inc
stock is down $75,000 a share in the last six months!!!! Makes your lousy 20 buck a share fall seem kind of nice.
Oh, yeah. This will turn things around:
“Bank of America Corp. will rebrand its Countrywide Financial Corp. mortgage unit, according to a company spokesman.
In late April, Countrywide will be renamed Bank of America Home Loans.”
Yes, we have no bananas
We have-a no bananas today…
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=CQB
C’s share price is now lower than its ATM fees.
“gotta give credit where credit is due to BC Bob gold at $1,000 never thought it would happen ”
Don’t know why you never thought it would happen when it already did in March.
Market will drop to 5,000 this year. Unemployment will hit 10.0% +
I feel bad for the people tyring to sell you piece of shi* house for big bucks. Those days are over!!!!!
because it would indicate a complete undoing of what Hank Paulson did to stablize the markets in a matter of weeks to reach 1,000 so quick, I give credit to Timmy G it would take George Bush and entire year to cause the damage he did in a few weeks.
Ben says:
February 20, 2009 at 4:03 pm
“gotta give credit where credit is due to BC Bob gold at $1,000 never thought it would happen ”
Don’t know why you never thought it would happen when it already did in March.
is “educated loyalty” meant to be “educated royalty”?
this may join the vernacular of this blog, along with pant up :)
srs close at 73!!
“One thing is supply here can be inflated as well. With mining increasing there can eventually be an oversupply of gold”
Not really, miners haven’t been able to make much more than a 2% dent in the supply each year.
“because it would indicate a complete undoing of what Hank Paulson did to stablize the markets in a matter of weeks to reach 1,000 so quick, I give credit to Timmy G it would take George Bush and entire year to cause the damage he did in a few weeks.”
Or maybe it reached 1000 precisely because of what Hank Paulson did.
Example of sheer insanity today!! Citigroup bond below First trade 73, had a trade as low as 25!! and closed day at 77. If you look at screens during day you wanna puke.
CITIGROUP NOTES 5.625% 08/27/2012 ISIN #US172967BP57 SEDOL #7666900
Price Quantity Date/Time Buy/Sell
77.403 20 02/20/2009 03:37:00 —
77.403 30 02/20/2009 03:37:00 —
77.503 30 02/20/2009 03:36:37 —
77.403 30 02/20/2009 03:36:37 —
73.404 5 02/20/2009 03:09:56 —
74.061 5 02/20/2009 03:09:56 —
25.000 13 02/20/2009 02:45:21 —
73.079 25 02/20/2009 02:38:48 —
72.979 25 02/20/2009 02:38:06 —
76.829 20 02/20/2009 02:24:00 —
76.929 20 02/20/2009 02:19:27 —
76.829 20 02/20/2009 02:19:27 —
70.000 25 02/20/2009 02:08:00 —
70.000 100 02/20/2009 01:09:00 —
71.896 200 02/20/2009 12:24:34 —
72.875 20 02/20/2009 12:14:42 —
60.130 175 02/20/2009 11:40:00 —
60.250 175 02/20/2009 11:40:00 —
49.656 3 02/20/2009 10:00:56 —
73.750 135 02/20/2009 09:58:06 —
“Not really, miners haven’t been able to make much more than a 2% dent in the supply each year.”
Ben,
Exactly.
Above ground supplies are increasing at an annual rate of 1-2%. Not a dent compared to the growth of the adjusted monetary base. In addition to this, credit constraints are hurting exploration.
chicagofinance says:
February 20, 2009 at 3:25 pm
make money says:
February 20, 2009 at 3:11 pm
No sir. You’re an educated loyalty I’m just a peasant and a lucky flipper. I’m brainless. I don’t work on Wall street.
albani: no offense man, but I honestly feel good that you are ripping it up; to the extent you feel the need to harsh on my albie a%%, it just reflects your insecurity; only you can answer why you need act like an 18 year old, especially when you have no idea what I do with my personal account……BTW – I stand by my advice, and I would appreciate if you would attach a specific point in time to it.
Quick: Santelli Gains Rockstar Status Online
To join the group called,
Rick Santelli is right, we need a Taxpayer (Chicago) Tea Party
303 Kettle:
Your analysis based on your deep knowledge of the history of civilization reveals a top US college graduate.
Better stick to following FXP.
BC Bob says:
February 20, 2009 at 4:21 pm
“Not really, miners haven’t been able to make much more than a 2% dent in the supply each year.”
——-
Is it just a demand-supply thing with gold with no actual value. The parallels I can think of are diamonds, pearls, ivory tusks, genitals of endangered species… :)
With diamonds, technology has resulted in more perfect diamonds than what we can get by shedding a bit of blood. If chemistry triumphs with gold (very low probability given the amount of effort that would have been focused in that direction for over 2k years), what happens to the worth of gold.
Clot, I’m sure Hitler may have had similar thoughts about gold, but may be that was one of the few good thoughts he might have had!
I am thinking of stocking up a few cases of Whiskey for barter purposes.
Any recommendations?
anything irish!
Buy some good Bourbon, Makers Mark, Woodford Reserve, Wild Turkey or maybe even Evan Williams Single Barrel.
Bergen County is soon to be named Bourbon County as you need to get drunk as a skunk before you listen to the offers when you sell your home.
Maplewoodian is back we missed you man (or woman):)
IN addition – Just to cheer everybody up before weekend:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/29304047
Volcker: Crisis May be Even Worse than Depression
Paul Krugman,
Who’ll Stop the Pain?
MapleW,
Here’s your bull market;
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/us-fed-assets.png
albani: no offense man, but I honestly feel good that you are ripping it up; to the extent you feel the need to harsh on my albie a%%, it just reflects your insecurity; only you can answer why you need act like an 18 year old, especially when you have no idea what I do with my personal account……BTW – I stand by my advice, and I would appreciate if you would attach a specific point in time to it.
ChiFi,
I respect what you have to say and cause of your comments I seriously thought about dumping some shiny. You said that we were lucky to have Bergabe and Hank navigating us through these times.
You were wrong. That’s all.
I was all in in RE when it was time to be all in and now I’m all in Gold. time will tell if I’m stupid or a genious.
Fcuk playing it safe and diversification.
I am going home, will the last one out on wall street please turn off the lights.
Also it is past 5pm and no bank failure, what up?
make,
Lock in some gains?
“SEC and CIA were helping Madoff. No doubt about it.
Only question is: where did the money go, and what did it buy?”
someone is thinkking & talking like me?
wow!
be careful, you will be labeled a fool or a consipracy theorist.
ha!
SAS
Frank: hoboken condos:
#1 931 willow: # 80013526 new release from a rental conversion, completely redone inside, no sale history
#2 110 bloomfield was a gut restoration, no sales history. Place looks good online
#3 1025 maxwell is a developer release
#4 601 observer (identical unit one floor above closed at 798000 over the summer) this one was asking 789000, certainly a bigger discount will show up if it closes)
#5 609 observer is a new development(only the designs are ready, place has ot been completed)
Woody (396)-
Vodka beat Paul Krugman to the Panic of 1873 comparisons by about four months (see post #402 above). I’d say his analysis is pretty good, given that he beat a Nobel laureate to the punch.
OTOH, you might want to go outside and make sure the MS-13 hasn’t tagged the side of your house.
Sean (397)-
Knob Creek or Black Bush.
BC (403)-
C’mon dude, get on the ball. The balance sheet has started expanding again since 1/28. :)
Frank: Hoboken cont’d
102 jefferson #2 is under contract for an asking price of 559k mls#80009231. 1134 square feet
a smaller unit, in this three unit building, 1073 square feet, sold for 575k in 2007. More Info 03/26/07 8212 220 575000 70 JEFFERSON ST
It appears that the one uder contract has sole rights to the deck and back yard as well. Pretty substantial drop, expecically if you consider the premium many hobokenites put on any extra land/outdoor space. again I assume the bid was lower than the ask here, we shall see
A fun Seattle Times article on a couple earning $43k a year who were approved for a $922K condo. Stars JPM as the mortgage co.
stan (412)-
Nice legwork there. I think pretty much all here understand that anything posted by Frank is- at best- a half-truth and more commonly is just plain lies.
Al
Missed you too. Not much time but when I need a dose of gloom, you guys are the best.
Frank: Hoboken cont’d’
215 bloomfield 90000266, asking 479k. Last bought in 2004 for 405k
you got me here, this guy could realize a profit. we will have to see what the price comes in at. My guess is closer to 400k than 479k
purchased for 405900 in 2004.Sale Date:
Sr1a Date Book Page Price NU# Ratio
More Info 06/08/04 7366 42 405900 215 BLOOMFIELD ST #3E
However tax records have it listed at 1024 sq feet.
So those of you keeping score for Frank, 8 under contract.
One sold for a loss.
There may be a small gain over five years on one
One is listed for less than a larger unit in the same building that sold last year.
And five are development releases without any real sales history.
Oh, and 8 under contract per week will keep us at 75.5 weeks of inventory. What recession?
clot-
yeah but i like to refute the inconsistencies.
For some reason it really bothers me.
Timmay had better bring it next week.
Who here is betting that he will deliver?
stan (417)-
Ever go to Kannekt?
My 2009 Predictions:
Oil: $55/barrel…eh
Gold: $1200/oz….on its way
DJIA: 6500…on its way
SRS: $150…on its way
Frank: Unemployed and in foreclosure…on its way.
Boy what a dump my beloved SRS took at the end of the day…No biggie…Market is open all five days next week.
#413
“A fun Seattle Times article on a couple earning $43k a year who were approved for a $922K condo. Stars JPM as the mortgage co.”
clear victims of the financial crisis who were just playing by the rules and deserve a helping hand.
Stu (420)-
No big. The Treasury announcement just stopped it cold. SKF really pulled back hard, too.
Gotta like them both going into next week.
Sean says:
February 20, 2009 at 4:44 pm
I am thinking of stocking up a few cases of Whiskey for barter purposes.
Any recommendations?
Ask lisoosh….considered bottled water at the WalMart equivalents in Islay..
http://www.laphroaig.com/whiskies/index.asp?expanded=our_whiskies
clot-419
kannekt- oh yeah,
facts are not allowed over there. I think I’ve been banend, but i use to go over to stir the pot every now and again. It is an entire board of Franks
make money says:
February 20, 2009 at 5:05 pm
ChiFi,You said that we were lucky to have Bergabe and Hank navigating us through these times. You were wrong. That’s all.
albani: Interesting. Not specifically directed at you, but why do you think that these guys fcuked up? I am not talking about style points or engendering a sense of confidence, but realistically…who else would be in there? and also, what else could have been done?
It not as simple as…these guys are idiots and they should let everything fail etc….
How could there be a qualitative difference in terms of a better outcome that we would be in as of 2/20/09?……we all know housing prices have to go down, and basically (in retropsect) the banks were effectively insolvent once Cioffi and his buds hit the deck in June 2007.
To remove some variables, let us assume that Obama is in there no matter what….
Does anyone know about this house sale dealo in my beloved town of Montclair?
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2009/02/montclair_house_sells_for_500k.html#comments
maplewood.
thanks, i know i am doing something right when a get a few new comers riled up. have fun and enjoy the madness!
anyone here use ameritrade?
just curious what people think of their service….
clot, BC
you will appreciate this quote
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.
Robert A. Heinlein
new pic of the the obama administration:
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_9ZzZquaXrR8/SZ8e0DHJVCI/AAAAAAAAC-o/Hb6Lp-tF1Yo/s1600-h/EvilClowns.jpg
Kettle1:
I use TD Ameritrade and it was a 100% improvement over E-Trade. Make sure you call them and negotiate your per trade fee lower. They will do this if 1) you trade alot or 2) have a lot of money in their brokerage. Their customer service is excellent and twice I was able to get some money refunded to me when they made a bad limit trade. When the shite hits the fan, sometimes their servers boot you, but I’m sure you use a lot of buy and stop limits so it doesn’t impact me. If you’re a day trader, probably not the best platform. They do have excellent research though and their streamer is quite fantastic as well as their screener and back tester. Conditional trades are cool as well. I’ve been using them for about 8 years now without any major snafus.
Pols are softening up the sheep…
Senator Dodd Says Short-Term Bank Nationalization Might Be Needed as Shares Plunge
Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd said banks may have to be nationalized for “a short time” to help lenders including Citigroup Inc. and Bank of America Corp. survive the worst economic slump in 75 years. “I don’t welcome that at all, but I could see how it’s possible it may happen,” Dodd said on Bloomberg Television’s “Political Capital with Al Hunt” to be broadcast later today. “I’m concerned that we may end up having to do that, at least for a short time.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&refer=news&sid=aK13N8OxMigc
“I’m concerned that we may end up having to do that, at least for a short time.”
Riiiiiiggggggggggggghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhttttt!
The “O” team is starting to make the Bush boys look like geniuses something I thought impossible.
Roubini warns of ‘sovereign’ bank failure
Nouriel Roubini, the New York University professor who predicted the global credit crisis, said a government-backed bank ”may crack” as officials try to bail out their financial systems. “The process of socializing the private losses from this crisis has already moved many of the liabilities of the private sector onto the books of the sovereign,” Roubini wrote on his Web site today. ”At some point a sovereign bank may crack, in which case the ability of the governments to credibly commit to act as a backstop for the financial system — including deposit guarantees — could come unglued.”
Roubini didn’t identify any sovereign bank that might run into difficulty. He also said he sees a 30% chance of an ”L-shaped near-depression” without ”appropriate and aggressive policy action” by the US and other major economies to prevent a sovereign bank’s failure. The latest data indicate fourth-quarter gross domestic product in key economies including the US, the euro zone and Japan may be worse than initially reported.
http://business.theage.com.au/business/world-business/roubini-warns-of-sovereign-bank-failure-20090220-8cs4.html
230 Chifi
Gtg in AC?
236 ChiFi
Got it thanks~
Kettle1:
Roubini said he erred and didn’t mean sovereign bank. He meant country.
From his blog…
“Correction: The text above said “At some point a sovereign bank may crack”; I meant “At some point a sovereign may crack”. Apologies for the confusion due to my typo.”
I could get some free rooms for the DM concert ;)
Of course ChiFi would probably consider those blood rooms, but I think ultimately it would make a great GTG locale.
ChiFi:
You better be nice to me as my blood money might have afforded me the ability to obtain very good tickets at shockingly low prices.
RE ’sovereign’ bank failure
hmmm who will it be, so many options….. UK, Switzerland, Ireland, Hunrgy,……. wait does Hungry count anymore??
stu,
i took roubini’s comment to mean a national bank. i know that BOE (UK) is under extreme stress and the swiss central bank could very easily get into trouble
stu,
thanks for the ameritrade input, just moved to them
Obama’s Accounting Gimmick to Protect Lenders
Accounting gimmickry facilitated by Obama’s “foreclosure relief” plan will protect banks only temporarily. To survive the crisis, the banks need more. They need the government to blow a bubble to replace the one that’s bursting. In the short-run, TARP money and accounting gimmicks can keep them in business. In the long-run, they need the Fed to reinflate prices. Did I mention that loan modifications like Obama has in mind don’t work? Here’s a chart showing the re-default rate on modified mortgages. As you can see, a majority fall back into default within 60 days.
(chart)
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_9ZzZquaXrR8/SZ8e0Y3gOcI/AAAAAAAAC-4/0etqrwCVKnU/s1600-h/ObamasAccounting2.jpg
this is how you get a mob going…
Jobless Hit With Bank Fees on Benefits
First, Arthur Santa-Maria called Bank of America to ask how to check the balance of his new unemployment benefits debit card. The bank charged him 50 cents. He chose not to complain. That would have cost another 50 cents. So he took out some of the money and then decided to pull out the rest. But that made two withdrawals on the same day, and that was $1.50. For hundreds of thousands of workers losing their jobs during the recession, there’s a new twist to their financial pain: Even when they’re collecting unemployment benefits, they’re paying the bank just to get the money — or even to call customer service to complain about it.
link
http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory?id=6917758
My 2009 Predictions:
DJIA: 5500…on its way
SRS: $10…on its way due to leaks.
Frank: employed for life by the wonderful state of NJ and he owns his house = no foreclosure, unlike other deadbeats that need a mortgage to buy a house.
439 Stu
Get those rooms! I’ll need one. If not, I’ll get my own. I want to know where exactly they’re playing. My guess is Borgata but maybe HOB. Last time they played down there I was at a mini-gtg- before I knew you all.
Stu,
I sold a boat load of Feb 80 calls on SRS this morning, what a nice payday it was today. Shopping for a new Benz this weekend.
BTW I’m thinking they might add some dates. I don’t see a Philly date. I don’t think I’ll make it to Boston. So if they don’t add anything else in the area, its just the 2 shows for me.
Banks, investment firms borrow more from Fed
Commercial banks and investment firms borrowed more over the past week from the Federal Reserve’s emergency lending program. The Fed on Thursday reported that commercial banks averaged nearly $66 billion in daily borrowing over the week ending Wednesday. That was up from nearly $64.6 billion in average daily borrowing logged over the week that ended Feb. 11. Investment firms drew $26 billion over the past week from the Fed program. That was up slightly from an average of $25.8 billion the previous week.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jC0Js_XMSCt-GDAijc3qIbjuVZIAD96ESVD01
#408,
“Frank: hoboken condos:”
My point is that given what I read on this blog, I wold expect none of these to sell for these prices. The developers are making a killing on them.
If you gotta sell this car on Craigslist, you are in some serious trouble….
http://newjersey.craigslist.org/cto/1042910972.html
And what do they do when tax revenue continues to fall. by next year we get to see Escape from LA part II
After Standoff, Calif. Reaches Budget Deal
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/02/19/AR2009021900462.html?wprss=rss_business
Helllllppppp! I’m trapped in my house….and I love it. Please don’t come looking for me….
Saab, Seeking GM Split, Given Time To Restructure
Swedish car maker Saab Automobile AB Friday was granted protection from its creditors so that it can be reorganized and said it will seek to separate from its owner, General Motors Corp.. “We are now recreating Saab Automobile as an independent unit,” Saab Chief Executive Jan-Ake Jonsson said in a statement after the Vanersborg District Court in southwestern Sweden approved its request to begin the reorganization process.
http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/djf500/200902200950DOWJONESDJONLINE000674_FORTUNE5.htm
Sure Frank.
Stanford may have been laundering drug money for Mexican cartel
Stanford’s operations in Miami and Baton Rouge, Louisiana, were being shut down by a court-appointed receiver, a source briefed on the matter said. ABC News, citing federal authorities, reported the Federal Bureau of Investigation and others have been investigating whether Mr. Stanford was involved in laundering drug money for Mexico Gulf cartel.
http://www.financialweek.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20090219/REUTERS/902199997/1036
#457,
Do you want to see my trade confirms?
Does anyone have ideas on investing cash these days?
Besides Madoff and Stanford.
Bank Failure Friday…
clot bc make,
http://cache.boston.com/universal/site_graphics/blogs/bigpicture/manuf_02_20/m42_17040621.jpg
frank
bullets and blow???
(426)
Another flipper still making money today in Montclair !!!
A third world country?
Did someone say Argentina.
1999 prices?
#435 – I suppose this makes a nice bookend to the Roubini post. Volker; There are challenges to capitalism. It’s worth the click, he’s honest and sounds far more concerned then he has at any point in the past.
Re: Roubini, There’s been speculation one of the central banks/sov. banks might go “pop” for a bit now, I wonder if that was what all the currency moves earlier in the week were about.
Frank’s a complete @ss. I wonder why he’s always posting stuff about the Hoboken market that shows prices have dropped substantially from peak. What do you have against Hoboken? Post listings from some other town that is collapsing and leave Hoboken alone.
vodka (429)-
We are all strangers in a strange land.
vodka (435)-
I’d lay even odds the Roubinator is talking about the BOE.
#466,
Because I lived in Hoboken for 5 years, had to move out because I could no longer afford the sky high prices and now I wish they would drop so I can move back, but as seen in my examples they are not dropping much.
John,
Why do INTERNATIONAL LEASE FIN CORP bonds trade so cheap? Is AIG having trouble unloading it?
lostinny says:
February 20, 2009 at 8:46 pm
439 Stu Get those rooms! I’ll need one. If not, I’ll get my own. I want to know where exactly they’re playing. My guess is Borgata but maybe HOB. Last time they played down there I was at a mini-gtg- before I knew you all.
lost: Borgata is two sections. The whole front is GA. The back is rafters with assigned seats. No NYC? If I go to AC, I really wouldn’t stay over because I live less than 1 hour away.
I get free rooms here for the weekends….
https://www.starwoodhotels.com/preferredguest/property/overview/index.html?propertyID=270
no frist….but Last.
night everybody.
see ya in the morning.
HC
Al;
Not on the hook for cleanup.
My lawyer saw this coming and wrote a nice contract.
37# stu, how do you feel wearing this muzzle?
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=SRS#chart1:symbol=srs;range=1d;indicator=volume;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
>Stu says:
February 20, 2009 at 8:08 am
SRS 87.05 in premarket. Get your last words in premarket Bi.
I may purchase 100 shares at 90, just to make the price cross the ticker and to shut him up.
Friday is muzzle day!
Forced to foreclose due to resetting ARM.
http://cgi.ebay.com/Unique-Cave-Home-over-15-000-sf-Beautiful-setting_W0QQitemZ330306913609QQcmdZViewItemQQptZResidential?hash=item330306913609&_trksid=p3286.c0.m14&_trkparms=72%3A1205|66%3A2|65%3A12|39%3A1|240%3A1318|301%3A1|293%3A1|294%3A50
The Friday article re food banks on the front page of the NYT was interesting. I put off reading it because I didn’t want to be depressed by descriptions of disappointed hungry people scouring shelves that held a few cans of expired coconut milk. but it wasn’t like that at all! there was no mention of shortages at any of the food banks, and they were stocking things like low-fat mozzarella cheeze, Pepperidge Farm chocolate chunk cookies, Nature’s path Organic Soy plus cereal, and other desireable things. are the sheeple being placated? who would riot if such tasty things were readily available?
sometimes I regret being a vegan.
RE: “When you aren’t getting showings and offers, lower your damn price.”
What blocks the message getting through to delusional sellers?
1) As children, they were dropped on their head?
2) Ego?
3) They’re underwater and can’t lower the price?
4) The know things will get better after [insert some nebulous point in the future — “The Spring”, “Government Plan IV”, “Interest Rates Hit 0%”, etc]?
5) As adults, they were dropped on their head?
6) All of the above?
471 Chifi
I’m aware of the layout, I’ve seen them there before. I will also go to NYC. I want to see if they add a Philly show.
I don’t really care where I stay but if they do play the Borgata I will likely stay there.
‘Nationalize’ the Banks
Dr. Doom says a takeover and resale is the market-friendly solution.
By TUNKU VARADARAJAN (WSJ)
New York
Nouriel Roubini is always dressed in black-and-white.
I have known him for nearly two years, and have seen him in a variety of situations — en route to class at New York University’s Stern Business School, where he’s a professor; over a glass of wine in his boyish loft in Manhattan’s Tribeca; at an academic conference, seated sagely on the dais; at a bohemian party in Greenwich Village, at . . . oh . . . 3 a.m. — and he always, always wears a black suit with a white linen shirt.
[The Weekend Interview] Terry Shoffner
And so, in black-and-white he was, earlier this week, when he rushed into the office of Roubini Global Economics, his consulting firm in downtown Manhattan, and offered a breathless apology to this correspondent, who’d been waiting for half an hour. “Really sorry I’m late! Charlie Rose taped for way longer than he said he would.”
Mr. Roubini — a month short of 50 — is in huge media demand, the nearest thing to a rock-star among the economists who hold our fate in their hands these days. The peculiar thing, of course, is that he’s in demand because he specializes in predictions of gloom. (He has earned himself the sobriquet of “Doctor Doom.”) In person, though, he’s anything but a downer.
The man has instant impact on public debate. An idea he floated only last week — that our “zombie banks” be temporarily nationalized — aired first on Forbes.com, where he writes a weekly column. It has evolved, in the space of just a few days, from radical solution to almost received wisdom.
Last Sunday on ABC, George Stephanopoulos asked Lindsey Graham, the conservative Republican senator, what he thought about all this talk of bank nationalization. Mr. Graham said that he wouldn’t take the idea off the table. And on Wednesday, Alan Greenspan told the Financial Times that “it may be necessary to temporarily nationalize some banks in order to facilitate a swift and orderly restructuring.”
Mr. Roubini tells me that bank nationalization “is something the partisans would have regarded as anathema a few weeks ago. But when I and others put it in the context of the Swedish approach [of the 1990s] — i.e. you take banks over, you clean them up, and you sell them in rapid order to the private sector — it’s clear that it’s temporary. No one’s in favor of a permanent government takeover of the financial system.”
There’s another reason why the concept should appeal to (fiscal) conservatives, he explains. “The idea that government will fork out trillions of dollars to try to rescue financial institutions, and throw more money after bad dollars, is not appealing because then the fiscal cost is much larger. So rather than being seen as something Bolshevik, nationalization is seen as pragmatic. Paradoxically, the proposal is more market-friendly than the alternative of zombie banks.”
In any case, Republicans must now temper their reactions, he says. “The kind of government interference in the economy that we saw in the last year of Bush was unprecedented. The central bank — supposed to be the lender of the last resort — became the lender of first and only resort! With our recapitalizing of financial institutions, and massive government intervention in the markets, we’ve already crossed a significant bridge.”
So, will the highest level of government be receptive to the bank-nationalization idea? “I think it will,” Mr. Roubini says, unhesitatingly. “People like Graham and Greenspan have already given their explicit blessing. This gives Obama cover.” And how long will it be before the administration goes in formally for nationalization? “I think that we’re going to see the policy adopted in the next few months . . . in six months or so.”
That long? I ask. “Six months from now,” he replies, “even firms that today look solvent are going to look insolvent. Most of the major banks — almost all of them — are going to look insolvent. In which case, if you take them all over all at once, you cause less damage than if you would if you took over a couple now, and created so much confusion and panic and nervousness.
“Between guarantees, liquidity support, and capitalization, the government has provided between $7 trillion to $9 trillion of help to the financial system. De facto, the government is already controlling a good chunk of the banking system. The question is: Do you want to move to the de jure step.”
Yet another reason why bank nationalization is a good idea, Mr. Roubini continues, is that “we started with banks that were too big to fail, but what has happened, in the process, is that these banks have become even-bigger-to-fail. J.P. Morgan took over Bear Stearns and WaMu. BofA took over Countrywide and then Merrill. Wells Fargo took over Wachovia. It doesn’t work! You can’t take two zombie banks, put them together, and make a strong bank. It’s like having two drunks trying to keep each other standing.
“So if you took over a big bank, and you split the assets in three or four pieces, maybe you create three or four regional or national banks, and they’re stronger! Nationalization — or ‘temporary receivership,’ if you like, if the N-word is a political liability — is an occasion to undo the sort of consolidation that has created an even bigger systemic problem. And the only way to do it is by essentially taking them over and breaking them up.”
Here, I ask Mr. Roubini whether he has been more right — more prescient — in his reading of the economic downturn than all the other famous bears in America. After all, judging by the attention paid to him in the press, it is hard not to conclude that he is the leading guru of the current recession, or “near-depression,” as he often calls it. My question, remarkably, induces in him some diffidence. “I don’t want to personalize the analysis, you know . . . because, first of all, there were many people who got many of the elements right.
“People like [Robert] Shiller were very worried about the housing bubble. People like Steve Roach were worried about an economy based on asset bubbles leading to consumption bubbles that were unsustainable. People like Ken Rogoff talked about global imbalances in the current account deficit not being sustainable. Nassim Taleb has been worrying for a while about ‘fat tail’ events . . . . So lots of people signaled concern about things. I was one of those who put the dots together and thus gave a more fleshed-out picture.”
To Mr. Roubini, the most interesting question isn’t the one of who got it right. Instead, he asks why we “over and over again, get into these periods of irrational exuberance, when not only is there an asset bubble and a credit bubble, but people believe these are sustainable over a long time — Wall Street, policy makers, rating agencies, academics, journalists . . . .”
What exactly is Nouriel Roubini’s economic philosophy? “I believe in market economics,” he says, with some emphasis. “But to paraphrase Churchill — who said this about democracy and political regimes — a market economy might be the worst economic regime available, apart from the alternatives.
“I believe that people react to incentives, that incentives matter, and that prices reflect the way things should be allocated. But I also believe that market economies sometimes have market failures, and when these occur, there’s a role for prudential — not excessive — regulation of the financial system. The two things that Greenspan got totally wrong were his beliefs that, one, markets self-regulate, and two, that there’s no market failure.”
How could Mr. Greenspan have been so naïve, I ask, hoping to get a rise. “Well,” says Mr. Roubini, “at some level it’s good to have a framework to think about the world, in which you emphasize the role of incentives and market economics . . . fair enough! But I think it led to an excessive ideological belief that there are no market failures, and no issues of distortions on incentives. Also, central banks were created to provide financial stability. Greenspan forgot this, and that was a mistake. I think there were ideological blinders, taking Ayn Rand’s view of the world to an extreme.
“Again, I don’t want to personalize things, but the last decade was one of self-regulation. But in the financial markets, without proper institutional rules, there’s the law of the jungle — because there’s greed! There’s nothing wrong with greed, per se. It’s not that people are more greedy now than they were 20 years ago. But greed has to be tempered, first, by fear of losses. So if you bail people out, there’s less fear. And second, by prudential regulation and supervision to avoid certain excesses.”
How does Mr. Roubini think the media has covered the financial crisis? “The problem,” he says — after first stating to me that he intends “no offense!” — “is that in the bubble years, everyone becomes a cheerleader, including the media. This is the time when journalists should be asking tough questions, and I think there was a failure there. The Masters of the Universe were always on the cover, or the front page — the hedge-fund guys, the imperial CEO, private equity. I wish there had been more financial and business journalists, in the good years, who’d said, ‘Wait a moment, if this man, or this firm, is making a 100% return a year, how do they do it? Is it because they’re smarter than everybody else . . . or because they’re taking so much risk they’ll be bankrupt two years down the line?’
“And I think, in the bubble years, no one asked the hard questions. A good journalist has to be one who, in good times, challenges the conventional wisdom. If you don’t do that, you fail in one of your duties.”
Sorry for the long post…!
Figured some might not have WSJ access-
Steve