“This will probably be the worst price correction the city has seen”

From Bloomberg:

Lost Bonuses Mean Manhattan Home Prices to Drop Most Since ‘80

Manhattan apartment sales declined 23 percent last year as the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell the most since the Great Depression. Now co-operative and condominium prices are dropping as Wall Street firms cut the bonuses that contributed to the property market boom of the past decade.

A 50 percent reduction in bonuses would push down prices by about 24 percent from their peak through mid-2010, said Sam Chandan, chief economist at property research firm Real Estate Economics LLC in New York. That would mark the biggest slide since 1980 when appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. started tracking Manhattan prices.

“This will probably be the worst price correction the city has seen,” said Marisa Di Natale, senior economist at Moody’s Economy.com in West Chester, Pennsylvania.

“If bonuses next year are expected at or below the current level, then prices will slide,” Miller Samuel President Jonathan Miller said.

Sales of Manhattan condominiums and co-ops priced at $10 million or more fell 60 percent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, the New York City’s Independent Budget Office said. Transactions involving Manhattan apartments valued at $1 million or more dropped 21 percent in the same period.

Apartment prices have dropped 15 percent in Manhattan and may fall another 11 percent to a median of about $820,000 in the next 12 months, said Chandan of Real Estate Economics. If bonuses are eliminated, prices would slump by another 20 percent to 24 percent to a median of $730,000, he said.

“If there’s a shock to income in the city or a shock to employment, that changes the demand side in the short term and prices adjust to that,” Chandan said.

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

434 Responses to “This will probably be the worst price correction the city has seen”

  1. Stu says:

    Frist!

  2. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    Moody’s increases loss projections on jumbo RMBS

    Credit rating agency Moody’s Investors Service said Thursday that it has increased its loss projections for residential mortgage backed securities backed by prime jumbo loans and has put RMBS with a total outstanding balance of $173.3 billion on review for a possible downgrade. The rating agency said the revision applies to RMBS issued from 2005 to 2008 and that it now expects cumulative losses of about 1.7% for 2005 securitizations, rising to 6.2% for 2008 securitizations. “During the last six months, jumbo mortgage loans backing 2005 to 2008 securitizations have shown substantial increases in serious delinquencies and decreases in prepayment rates,” Moody’s said.

  3. PGC says:

    Stu,

    Did you find any good deals for Orlando? I’m looking to take the family down to Universal for a week, next month.

  4. Secondary Market says:

    mean while philadelphia has just set a new record for the highest paid condo sale yesterday. i can’t wait until the economic toilet flush brings the sewage down the turnpike to philly and wakes this city up.

  5. Clotpoll says:

    Chris Dodd, a blood-bloated tick on the ass of the mangy dog also known as Congress.

    From Mish:

    “Looking ahead, Dodd facing fresh political firestorm for his role in this fiasco.

    Sen. Chris Dodd (D-Conn.) looks like he may be facing a fresh political firestorm.

    Dodd just admitted on CNN that he inserted a loophole in the stimulus legislation that allowed million-dollar bonuses to insurance giant AIG to go forward – after previously denying any involvement in writing the controversial provision. .

    “We wrote the language in the bill, the deal with bonuses, golden parachutes, excessive executive compensation that was adopted unanimously by the United States Senate in the stimulus bill,” Dodd told CNN’s Wolf Blitzer this afternoon.

    “But for that language, there would have been no language to deal with this at all.”

    Dodd had previously said that he played no role in writing the controversial language, and was not a part of the conference committee that inserted the language in the bill. As late as today, Dodd’s spokeswoman denied the senator’s involvement.

    Enough is enough. It’s time we stop the bailout madness. If that happens, and if Senator Dodd goes down in flames, these bonuses will have proven to be a blessing in disguise for the outrage they caused.”

  6. Cindy says:

    James – Check your email -

    Donation Day -

    Since I am going to “donate” my money to everyone else – It must be time to purposely donate some to you!

  7. Stu says:

    PGC,

    We stayed at a place that was a very good value, but you must be willing to rub elbows with a few rednecks. My parents and 89-year old grandmother came up from Boca and we booked a two bedroom suite at the Quality Suites Royale Parc.

    The pros are the free breakfast (typical free breakfast fare), big pool, free parking, comfy beds, little kitchen, nice flat screen tvs and one of the closest non-Disney hotels to the Disney main gate.

    The negatives are the bathrooms left a bit to be desired, but were functional and clean, the other clientele (think too poor to afford staying at Disney, but they kept having kids anyway crowd) and quite honestly, the place looks kinda dumpy from the outside, although it was very nice on the inside.

    We stayed from a Wednesday through Saturday and the complete bill was $410. In Disney, this won’t even get you one night in their worst resort.

    So like I said before, if value and cleanliness is your goal, I highly recommend the Royale Parc. If you are an AIG exec with money to burn, stay within the Disney complex.

  8. Stu says:

    Anyone see FedEX earnings?

    They are back to early 90s levels on their EPS. And this is with cheap fuel.

  9. cli says:

    I am interested in a foreclosed townhouse in a gated community. I guess it is less likely for the townhouse to have severe damage than single family house because there may be someone maintaining the exterior of the townhouse. The owners of the other units in the community may try to prevent damage to 1 of the unit.Any thoughts on this?

    Also, if I want to check the townhouse, how shall I proceed? If I can only take a look outside the townhouse, what shall I look for?

    Do I need a buyer’s agent to be involved in buying the foreclosure? If yes, how much commission shall I pay to the agent?

    Any comments really appreciated.

  10. veto says:

    Listening to shiller this morning, if you must buy now, you can hedge using CS futures.

  11. Stu says:

    The number of unemployed keep rising. Continuing jobless claims for the March 7 week rose a very steep 185,000 to a record 5.473 million. It’s taking longer and longer for the jobless to find work. Initial claims for the March 14 week did fall back 12,000 but remain at a severely high 646,000 for a four-week average of 654,750 (previous week revised up 4,000 to 658,000). Initial claims as well as the insured employment rate, at 4.1 percent, are the highest since the early 80s. There were no special factors skewing any of the data. Markets, fully expecting the overall unemployment rate to continue to rise to at least 9 percent, showed no reaction to today’s report.

  12. grim says:

    James – Check your email -

    Donation Day -

    Since I am going to “donate” my money to everyone else – It must be time to purposely donate some to you!

    Thank you!!

    Much appreciated Cindy!

    Your donation will help offset the costs associated with running the blog!

    With all the cash you folks seem to be rolling in, I’d have expected a few bucks in the tip jar by now.

  13. Shore Guy says:

    “mean while philadelphia has just set a new record for the highest paid condo sale yesterday”

    Let’s face it. For folks who are in the above $10,000,000 net-worth world, my threshold for counting one as truely rich, overspending to get “the right” house, carr, watch, whatever, will not phase them. As one gets into the $25,000,000 range, it just gets more goofy. In high school people often get seen as “cool” because they have “the correct” shoes, or pen, or listen to the “right” band, etc. At this level of economics it comes down to boats, cars, watches, homes, clubs, planes, shoes (some things never change), handbags, yadda, yadda. Pricing at this level of wealth is really of little concern, and overpaying can be seen as a measure of success and “cool.”

    One needs to ignore the very top sales as they are divorced for life on Planet Earth. They always have been, and this current downturn will not change that.

  14. 3b says:

    #11 Stu: With unemployment alreaddy at 8.1% as of the end of Feb 09, 9% unemployment is far too rosy.

    I would think we have to be looking at least 10% or higher by year end.

  15. borat obama says:

    lucky nubeerr thirrteeen….hi. Fiveee

  16. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    U.S. weekly initial jobless claims fall 12,000 to 646,000

    U.S. weekly continuing claims rise 185,000 to record 5.47M

    U.S. 4-week avg. intial claims rise to 26-year high 654,750

    U.S. insured unemployment rate rises to 4.1%, 26-year high

  17. Clotpoll says:

    Stu (11)-

    The roller coaster keeps ramping up.

    The down side is going to be quite a trip.

  18. Shore Guy says:

    “The number of unemployed keep rising. Continuing jobless claims for the March 7 week rose a very steep 185,000 to a record 5.473 million.”

    Well, this is good news for the market, no? Getting rid of all those redundant employees allows firms to close or shrink office space, plants, etc. It seems that the best thing for industry to do would be to lay-off everyone until the economic crisis passes, that way all the companies can make that much more profit.

  19. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    Americans Getting Jobless Benefits Jump to Record 5.47 Million

    The number of people collecting U.S. jobless benefits swelled to a record 5.47 million, indicating employees, once fired, aren’t finding other work as companies cut costs.

    The number of people staying on benefit rolls jumped by 185,000 in the week ended March 7, from 5.29 million the previous week, the Labor Department said today in Washington. Initial jobless applications last week topped 600,000 for a seventh straight time, the worst performance since 1982.

    Employers ranging from Caterpillar Inc. to Sunoco Inc. recently announced plans to trim payrolls, making it harder for the Obama administration to accomplish its goal of creating or saving 3.5 million jobs. Federal Reserve policy makers yesterday announced more than $1.1 trillion in additional initiatives to unclog credit and prevent the economy from sinking even more.

    “The state of the labor market has been dire,” Jonathan Basile, an economist at Credit Suisse Holdings USA Inc. in New York, said before the report. “If households are trying to find ways to save, so are businesses.”

    First-time claims in the week ended March 14 fell by 12,000 to 646,000, lower than the 655,000 median forecast of 39 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Projections ranged from 635,000 to 690,000. Labor revised the prior week’s claims to 658,000 from an originally estimated 654,000.

    The four-week moving average of initial claims, a less volatile measure, rose to 654,750 from 651,000.

  20. Shore Guy says:

    Is there a Web site that has a good summary of all of the “stimulus/rescue” money that has been spent/pledged since this fiasco of bailing-out the miscreants who caused this mess began? It has got to be $3-4T by now.

  21. veto says:

    Drudging up this old debate again. i like the idea of taxing oil, not so much for global warming and economic stimulus as much as fighting against pollution and the oil cartel.

    $750 billion “green” investment could revive economy: U.N.

    OSLO (Reuters) – Investments of $750 billion could create a “Green New Deal” to revive the world economy and protect the environment, perhaps aided by a tax on oil, the head of the U.N. environment agency said on Thursday.

    He floated the possibility of taxing oil in rich nations of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) to help a new pact become the cornerstone of a greener economy.

    “It would be almost, if not totally, unnoticed by the consumer,” he said, especially since oil prices have fallen from more than $140 a barrel at mid-2008 peaks to about $40.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/environmentNews/idUSTRE52I09T20090319?sp=true

  22. Hobokenite says:

    Cobbler,

    From previous thread…I wasn’t suggesting making your own vegetable oil.

  23. 3b says:

    #12 grim: You just shamed me into making another donation.

    It has been quite awhile since my last one.

    Thanks again for all the time and effort,and yes passion that you put into this.

  24. Ellen says:

    #7 Stu-

    We stayed a couple of weeks ago inside the park at Disney for $105 a night at the Port Orleans, a step down from the Grand Floridian deluxe, but a huge step up from the Value All-Star resorts.

    My brother stayed at the Fort Wilderness Cabins, also inside the park, for $145. He could’ve stayed at the Polynesian for the same price, but with his kids, the cabin worked better for him.

    Personally, if I were going to Universal, I’d give them a call and ask them for their inside the park deals. Those places are all hurting.

  25. veto says:

    grim just made another donation too, figured i would change my subscription from wsj to njrereport since it has much better info, more entertainment and the ‘sunday survival and canibalism’ section is perfect for the whole family.

  26. still_looking says:

    what? pay money to read ReTards rants????

    [..humppphhh.]

    Never! ;)

    sl

  27. Shore Guy says:

    I say it again, beware the Horn of Africa.

    http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/africa/03/19/bin.laden.message/

  28. 3b says:

    Oil, gold, copper, all up this morning.

    So the money you save on a 4% mtg, wil nowl go to pay for higher commodity prices.

    Do we see $3 gas again?

  29. 3b says:

    Oil, gold, copper, all up this morning.

    So the money you save on a 4% mtg, wil nowl go to pay for higher commodity prices.

    Do we see $3 gas again?

  30. still_looking says:

    Do I get my own personal chest hair clipping if I donate?

    I will be waiting by my mailbox…

    sl

  31. Shore Guy says:

    One has to give it to the developers of Xanax-do, they do seem to be trying to keep costs down by sheathing the structure with recycled metal roofing material ripped off of Caribbean homes during hurricane season. How very, um, green of them.

    http://blog.nj.com/ledgerupdates_impact/2009/03/large_xanadu_exterior.JPG

  32. Shore Guy says:

    One has to give it to the developers of X@n@x-do, they do seem to be trying to keep costs down by sheathing the structure with recycled metal roofing material ripped off of Caribbean homes during hurricane season. How very, um, green of them.

    http://blog.nj.com/ledgerupdates_impact/2009/03/large_xanadu_exterior.JPG

  33. grim says:

    #32 – I thought those were cut-apart shipping containers abandoned at the port at Elizabeth.

    I swear I can almost make out “Hanjin” on the third panel up from the bottom left.

  34. Shore Guy says:

    Say t’aint so, toxic pollution near the site of the old Dutch Boy plant in Sayreville? I’m shocked. Shocked!

    http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2009/03/feds_close_three_raritan_bay_s.html

  35. PGC says:

    #7 Stu,
    Thanks I’ll keep that one tucked away. I don’t have a problem with the rednecks, but Mrs PGC might have an issue with the bathrooms.

    We scored big in Orlando a few years back. We caught the Peabody, between conventions at under $100 per night.

  36. Shore Guy says:

    From that article, was this really something that should have ever struck anyone as a reasonable idea:

    “Lead slag was used to create a sea wall in Laurence Harbor in the late 1960s and early 1970s. Over the years, lead chipped off the sea wall and has been found on nearby beaches, Old Bridge Mayor James Phillips said.”

    Humm, WHAT were he odds. And the “progeny” of the politicians who made such wonderful decisions in the past are now supposed to rescue us from our fiscal woes? God help us all.

  37. House Whine says:

    Shore guy:

    I know you were writing tongue in cheek, but as one of those employees who has been “made redundant” it’s kind of discouraging to feel that I am paying for the irresponsible actions of others. I guess it is true that we are all “inter-connected”, especially economically speaking. It’s a good thing I have always been a saver and not so much of a spender.

  38. Yves at NakedCapitalism has a great post that picks up on some of the discussions regarding Bear & AIG we’ve had. To whit;

    Who were these people who wrecked AIG and other companies? How did it come about? And was the nature of their actions such that they should be permanently barred from the securities and banking industries?

    Great questions that need to be asked.

  39. comrade nom deplume says:

    Grim, I gotta help you get 501(c)(3) status somehow. Then we can deduct all of our donations.

    Wonder if there is a private letter ruling that permits stockpiling advice to be considered eductional?

  40. All Hype says:

    Do we see $3 gas again?
    ______________________________________

    I would be happy with $3 gas the way things are going.

  41. Silera says:

    Grim & Shore-

    Sadly- they paid top dollar for that stuff. I was working at an aluminum company at the time these bids went out and we came in 2nd to the low bidder. It’s lightweight garbage that basically “hooked” on like a vertical acoustical ceiling system.

    Every time my husband and I pass it we sing the good times theme and scream Dy- no-mite!

  42. All Hype says:

    Natasha Richardson died today. For those who like to ski or are thinking about it, she was on the beginner’s slope when it happened.

    I feel bad for her family and friends.

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/obit_natasha_richardson

  43. Silera says:

    40- I’ll admit it, I love these shows. I will tune in and feel wonderful about myself afterwards and I think (or hope at least) that’s why the shows are popular.

  44. grim says:

    Grim, I gotta help you get 501(c)(3) status somehow. Then we can deduct all of our donations.

    Would like to explore that.

  45. Cindy says:

    Grim – Get all over that offer from Nom – 501 (c) (3) – or You could make the argument that we have a “church” here.

  46. comrade nom deplume says:

    [34] shore

    From the lead story.

    “Wednesday morning, Jerry Bonnett, 69, of Westfield, was one of about 10 fishermen casting their lines into the waters near Cheesequake Creek. Bonnett was hoping to catch dinner for his family.”

    Bet his Dad fished in the same spots for the family dinner. Don’t know Jerry, but I don’t think I’ll be taking him up on a dinner invite.

  47. comrade nom deplume says:

    [45] grim

    You have my email.

  48. comrade nom deplume says:

    [43] All Hype

    Yes, very sad. Not that tragedy doesn’t strike non-celebs every day, but there is something poignant about having to grieve in the limelight.

    By all accounts, theirs was a wonderful family. Further, I see this just after I learned of the death of a former colleague’s wife, who was also a lovely person.

    The wife is now on me to buy a ski helmet. I foresee a big uptick in sales for Smith and Giro, and I would not be surprised if ski areas (or nanny states like NJ) started to make helmets mandatory.

  49. House Hunter says:

    anyone see santelli this morning…it is like he is muzzled..cant’t think of a reason to watch cnbc any longer.
    He stated the “buying” one hour prior to the fed announcement was amazing…umm has a fixed feel to me. the markets are not the markets

  50. DL says:

    4/13. The view from that condo is worth at least 5 mil. The lucky owner can sit 47 floors above sea level and watch the free-fire zone known as Phila/Camden decay before his eyes. Any closer to ground level they’d have to install bullet proof glass. BTW, Nutter recently announced a 17% “temporary” property tax increase.

  51. Shore Guy says:

    “Sadly- they paid top dollar for that stuff.”

    No!? In Jersey? Not a chance. Must have been some federal rule that made them do it. After all, our politicos are all careful stewards of our money.

  52. Shore Guy says:

    ““temporary” property tax increase.”

    He plans on removing that tax right after the temporary Parkway tolls are removed. Oh, I need to go, Santa and the Easter Bunny want me on a conference call — Tinkerbell just flew in to tell me.

  53. comrade nom deplume says:

    [51] DL

    Someone play some Foghat “fool for the city” for anyone buying in a Northeastern city these days.

    I don’t always get things right (for example, I was stupid enough to buy RE in NJ), but we were at least smart enough to recognize the top in Philly and got out of Dodge with a nice profit.

  54. Clotpoll says:

    tosh (38)-

    That’s how you know they never will.

    “Great questions that need to be asked.”

  55. DL says:

    What the Pros Say: US Is Now ‘Bankrupt’
    http://www.cnbc.com/id/29769858

  56. Clotpoll says:

    Ray (40)-

    Please shoot me between the eyes. Now.

  57. DL says:

    Nom: Renting making more sense daily. We really want to buy but having a hard time justifying it. States are going to be more of a drag on the housing recovery than credit, inventory etc.

  58. comrade nom deplume says:

    [46] cindy,

    I explored briefly the idea of creating a church to hold the Nompound.

    Besides being a little too Waco-ish, I think IRS would have been all over that like flies on sh1t, and I saw no real tax advantage to it. Not to mention the constant attention we would receive from ATF.

    I might be crazy but I’m not stupid.

    Okay, back to work for paying clients.

  59. Clotpoll says:

    Hunter (50)-

    As sas said, they’re not markets anymore. They’re economic battlefields.

  60. skep-tic says:

    what’s with the timing of the bond buying by the Fed? is this just a reflection of my monomania or are they trying to revive the spring housing market?

  61. Steve says:

    Hi Grim,

    Long overdue….donation headed your way-

    Thanks for everything,

    Best
    Steve

  62. skep-tic says:

    transactions in one of the towns in CT I am looking at are down 85% YTD. A lot of the new comps seem to be coming in 20%+ below original ask. Major acceleration of the downswing in the last 3 months from what I can tell

  63. Stu says:

    Grim,

    I will purchase one share of SRS on this blogs behalf. When it gets to 150 I’ll donate the gains minus the taxes. Should be good for at least $80.

  64. Shore Guy says:

    For going into Apocalypse Now mode:

    If we can find a seller of a PBR, we may fly down and look at this, even if I do have to shave my head:

    http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/Barrio-Caniaco-Solar-4180,-A-Orillas-Del-Rio-Areci_Utuado_PR_00641_1102934081

  65. Thundaar says:

    Anyone hear anything about Amboy Savings? I keep seeing their signs at various ill-conceived projects around the state (Shoreside Development in Seaside Heights-which sold 4 of their 24 units even after an auction, 55+ commiunity in Clifton for Stratland Homes which is going through bankruptcy) yet I never hear about them getting tarp funds or possible bank failure.

  66. 3b says:

    #61 skeptic:are they trying to revive the spring housing market?

    They may try, but I do not see any real impact.

    Unemployment is still rising, many who have jobs are concerned about keeping them.

    Others who have jobs have just endured pay cuts,and property taxes in our area to continue to rise uncontrollably.

  67. DL says:

    “If you’ve got a good job, solid credit and your home’s value hasn’t fallen dramatically, you’re likely to benefit from the Federal Reserve’s extraordinary action Wednesday to help drive mortgage rates to historic lows and revive the U.S. housing market.”

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/29772962

    And there are so many people who fit that description…

  68. Shore Guy says:

    “Amboy Savings”

    I believe that they may also have been the money behind some of the terdown/rebuilds on Ocean Ave in Spring Lake.

    The whole seaside thing cracks me up. It is a tacky, tacky, place and it takes a half-hour just to get to the Parkway, for driving, or longer to get to Bay Head or Pt. Pleas for the train, THEN one begins one’s commute. There seem to be a number of hotel rooms in town that went condo, I suspect because NO ONE WANTED TO VACATION THERE like they did in the 60s, taking a week to hank out there. It tends to be more expensive than flying to the USVI or Florida but hey, it DOES have all that “charm.”

    Nice enough place to take the kids for a day, but live there? Fuggedaboudit.

  69. Shore Guy says:

    “If you’ve got a good job, solid credit and your home’s value hasn’t fallen dramatically, you’re likely to benefit from the Federal Reserve’s extraordinary action Wednesday to help drive mortgage rates to historic lows and revive the U.S. housing market”

    Not if you paid off your mortgage, it doesnt.

  70. DL says:

    “These lenders are making their credit criteria so outrageous,” said Dana Devine, a real estate agent in Apollo Beach, Fla., south of Tampa. “It’s that credit score that’s killing everybody.”

    From the above link. The “spit your coffee out the nose” quote of the day.

  71. Stu says:

    “Not if you paid off your mortgage, it doesnt.”

    Or put 20% down, even (for now).

  72. Shore Guy says:

    “bonus “tax” is up for a vote today.”

    I wonder if we will see guys in pinstripe suits and Italian shoes engaging in a Bonus March on Washington. If so, who plays the part of McArthur?

  73. Sean says:

    ok doomers here is an auction to write home about

    ORIGINALLY PRICED TO $683,900
    SUGGESTED OPENING BIDS FROM $150,000

    http://www.sheldongood.com/weehawken.php

  74. “These lenders are making their credit criteria so outrageous,” said Dana Devine, a real estate agent

    Does anyone know what lenders are looking for right now in terms of FICOs right now? And how much of a hit is a borrower taking for not being “A” paper?

  75. W8TING says:

    #20 Here’s a document that shows all of the banks that have received TARP money

    http://www.ustreas.gov/initiatives/eesa/transactions.shtml

  76. 3b says:

    #69 DL:And there are so many people who fit that description…

    And there are so many who do not.

  77. #75 – Per the link there’s no reserve on the auctions. Might be interesting.

  78. sas says:

    Grim,

    how do we do cash donations?

    SAS

  79. Shore Guy says:

    DL,

    After, sptitting out some tobaco juice and two teeth into an empty beer can another would-be buyer said, “They expect you to have income and an intent to pay-back the loan,” spitting again. “In full,” said another would-be borrower, “It just isnt fair. After paying for cigarettes, beer, and lottery tickets, there isn’t hardly enough money left to pay for pot, let alone a full mortgage payment.”

    Heads nod in agreement at the tales of woe these neighboirs share. “It is time them educated people start pulling their fair share. I can’t afford to finish this tattoo, or even go to the track anymore. It is just un-American. We need relief and we need it now, and make it cash.”

  80. Shore Guy says:

    SAS,

    Paperbag, walking opposite directions though the third car of the A Train.

  81. Kettle1 says:

    Shore 70

    It tends to be more expensive than flying to the USVI

    That is EXACTLY why i have been hard at work to break up my inlaws family tradition of a week at the NJ shore.

    For what they spend, they could easily spend the same week in the US/B VI
    and hangout on a beach where medical waste doesnt wash up and unexploded ordinance is found in the sand.

    Boring I know, but i prefer less of an “industrial” feel to my vacations….

  82. Shore Guy says:

    Tosh,

    Anyone who lends to any would-be-borrower who does not come to the table with 20% down, stellar credit, and a boatload of cash in reserve should be tasered.

  83. Thundaar says:

    #75 I have been to a couple of their auctions….their use of the word “absolute” is untrue in some cases. The auctioneer will say something like ” remember folks these condos are being sold absolute” and then in the same breath but a little quieter “subject to bank approval”.

  84. sas says:

    “SAS,
    Paperbag, walking opposite directions though the third car of the A Train”

    thats funny you say that, that method actually has been done before, except it was on the C train.

    but my fav, just hire a mexican delivery boy on a bike, or a korean guy on a moped.

    works like a charm :)
    SAS

  85. Shore Guy says:

    “For what they spend, they could easily spend the same week in the US/B VI
    and hangout on a beach where medical waste doesnt wash up and unexploded ordinance is found in the sand”

    And your point is!?

    lol

    I love the Shore, I really do. That said, the old “resort” towns can’t expect a return to the old days because times and tastes have changed too much.

  86. 3b says:

    #84 shore:Anyone who lends to any would-be-borrower who does not come to the table with 20% down, stellar credit, and a boatload of cash in reserve should be tasered.

    And I would guess than that probably 2/3′s of those would be borrowers, would be;tasered.

  87. RayC says:

    Clotpoll says:
    March 19, 2009 at 10:16 am

    Ray (40)-

    Please shoot me between the eyes. Now.

    ————-

    I assume you want me to empty the weapon. You really want to be sure you’re dead when the alternative is this.

  88. Kettle1 says:

    SHore:

    Shore Guy says:
    March 19, 2009 at 10:56 am

    SAS,

    Paperbag, walking opposite directions though the third car of the A Train.

    better yet,

    a magazine with a few C notes between the pages left in the back of a magazine rack in a borders or B&N.

  89. #84 – Shore – I would agree, but I get the feeling things haven’t gotten that strict yet. How hard is it to do a %5 or %10 down deal right now with, say, a 680 tri-merge FICO and 2 months of reserves, with a %36 back end?
    This sort of a deal wouldn’t have been much of a problem in 2k5. If this can still be done easily, we have a lot further to fall.

  90. sas says:

    “Few towns opting for pension deferrals”
    http://www.pressofatlanticcity.com/184/story/432981.html

    -state figures show the state’s 566 municipalities owe the state pension system a collective $1.3 billion for public employees this year.

    -Atlantic City owes $12.78 million, the largest local amount and the sixth-highest statewide. The 68 municipalities in The Press of Atlantic City’s coverage area owe an average $817,672

  91. Kettle1 says:

    SAS,

    i used to know a guy who ran a drug delivery business using the random courier method.

  92. sas says:

    moderation, what?

    these damn East Germans drive me nuts.

    SAS

  93. Shore Guy says:

    HBO series, just announced:

    Sluts of the Seaside Boardwalk: Fanatasies, blowing in the wind.

  94. Shore Guy says:

    HBO series, just announced:

    Slu-ts of the Seaside Boardwalk: Real estate values aren’t the only things going down in this town.

  95. still_looking says:

    sas,

    …show up to a GTG.

    sl

  96. sas says:

    what have I been telling you…
    better pucker up when you hear stories like this:

    “US Rep Proposes Bill To Use Pension Assets For Banking System”
    http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/djf500/200903181422DOWJONESDJONLINE000870_FORTUNE5.htm

    -Financial Services Committee has proposed legislation that would allow public pension funds to buy preferred stock from ailing U.S. banks, prompting apprehension from public pension plan trustees.

    -The legislation introduced by Rep. Gary Ackerman, D-N.Y., offers public pension funds a guaranteed rate of return in exchange for buying the preferred stock, or for loaning the government their money to loosen the credit freeze.

  97. Shore Guy says:

    “a magazine with a few C notes between the pages ”

    Which reminds me of a story that can only be told face-to-face.

  98. the crazy man in the corner says:

    comrade, grim -

    sirs, couldn’t this be a foundation for the promotion of responsible adults? ;)

  99. sas says:

    “Fannie plans bonuses of $1M for 4 execs
    Fannie Mae plans bonuses of $1M for top executives; Freddie Mac has similar plans”
    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Fannie-plans-bonuses-of-up-to-apf-14679491.html

  100. Hard Place says:

    http://www.nypost.com/seven/03192009/realestate/ready_to_deal_160336.htm?page=0

    I’m thinking 70% decline in prices for some of these outside Manhattan developments. With such large amounts of unsold developments. These will turn to rentals in a market where there is still new developments coming online. Rents will drop and prices will continue to follow. Wow, this is getting ugly.

    Thank god, I’m off to Tahoe for vacation. Been busy as heck and haven’t been able to read or post much. Just had to share that article. Those people in the article won’t be smiling much a year or two from now.

  101. sas says:

    “Output at the Denver Mint fell 26 percent in 2008
    Fewer purchases, fewer coins”
    http://www.denverpost.com/economy/ci_11936452

  102. Shore Guy says:

    Speaking of coins. Does anyone have any experience with the bulk purchase of silver coins? I am looking for 1,000 oz to start.

  103. sas says:

    “Speaking of coins. Does anyone have any experience with the bulk purchase of silver coins?”

    yes, go for it. you want it in your hot little hands.

    SAS

  104. yome says:

    #72 Not if you paid off your mortgage, it doesnt.

    Refinance?With hyper inflation and tax deductibility you might make more with a mortgage.Just my 2 cents.

  105. AIG bldg likely to get $100 per square foot. That’s Manhattan… I know it’s a commercial space and all, but that is cheap.

  106. HEHEHE says:

    Sas,

    I love it, tie the pension funds to the banks as they swirl down the toilet, wonderful idea.

  107. yome says:

    #102 “Fannie plans bonuses of $1M for 4 execs

    Why do they get bonuses to do what they were hired for?

  108. comrade nom deplume says:

    James [yesterday]

    “guess I will have to barter seafood for fuel. Am I missing anything?”

    Yeah, all that lead in the seafood. Suggest you use that for fuel.

    (back to work)

  109. comrade nom deplume says:

    [111] HEHEHE

    Me too. Love it. More work for me.

  110. stan says:

    grim,

    small donation. good luck.

  111. Hard Place says:

    AIG bldg likely to get $100 per square foot. That’s Manhattan… I know it’s a commercial space and all, but that is cheap.

    Don’t understand why it’s that cheap. Area is decent and building is solid. I’m sure final price will be more than that.

  112. Shore Guy says:

    Yome,

    I wouldn’t take a loan aganist the value of my primary residence for any reason whatsoever.

  113. Stu says:

    “Yeah, all that lead in the seafood. Suggest you use that for fuel.”

    And if you can figure out how to process the mercury as well, you could manufacture your own thermostats and thermometers.

  114. make money says:

    Dear Investor,

    If you are a Northeast resident wintering in Florida, I’d like to invite you to a private investment seminar I am hosting in Boca Raton Saturday, March 28, from 2 to 4 PM. The seminar will be held at Florida Atlantic University. The seminar is not open to the public: just clients and friends of Euro Pacific Capital. I hope you will be able to join me. You are invited to bring a friend or spouse.

    There is no charge for the seminar. But you must register for the seminar by clicking the link below. Space is definitely limited. Our last seminar was oversubscribed, and we were forced to turn away people. So, if you would like to attend, I urge you to register early.

    If you’re in Florida it could be fun attending this.

  115. sas says:

    wonder why your state and local pension funds are investing in large banks and housing bubbles through Wall Street while they insist that investing through local firms or directly in regional businesses and local communities is a poor investment?

    Better yet, check out how much they paid in fees last year to the likes of AIG, Goldman Sachs, Bear Sterns, and Lehman Brothers.

  116. sas says:

    reading Goldman Sach’s latest Form 10-k annual report. As of the end of November 2008, they had cash and cash equivalents of $122 billion.
    http://www2.goldmansachs.com/our-firm/investors/financials/current/10k/2008-10k-doc.pdf

    Let’s see what they file for the 1st quarter. As the largest beneficiary of the AIG bailouts, it will be interesting to tally Goldman bonuses and cash hoards.

  117. 3b says:

    #116 hardplace: YOu have nto seen the enormous amount of office space available down here.

  118. chicagofinance says:

    My friend Heather is a headhunter performing a search…….

    Bankruptcy assoc with transact and/or financial exper needed. (No bankruptcy lit.) Must have solid transactional exper. Send resume to hfennell@lawseek.com

  119. Chris says:

    I’m looking for a 4 bedroom in Montvale/River Vale/Old Tappan. Sellers are asking $800-$900K (taxes around $12K). What do you think is a fair price in this market and how would you rate these areas in terms of schools and middle class living. Please chime in. Thanks.

  120. yome says:

    CURRENCIES
    VALUE CHANGE % CHANGE
    EUR-USD 1.3715 0.0241 1.79
    USD-JPY 93.7500 -2.4840 -2.58
    GBP-USD 1.4560 0.0290 2.03

    Dollar taking a beating,Hyperinflation,Dollar devaluation.Here comes HYper poverty.

  121. #116 – There have been a lot of reports that the commercial RE sector had absolutely tanked in NYC last year. Could it possibly have gotten this bad? If it has that doesn’t leave any of the residential construction any room to maneuver (like converting 20 Pine back to offices). Things could get very bad indeed.

  122. comrade nom deplume says:

    Off Topic Alert!!!!

    Someone told me about this last night. I had to google it to see if it was true. It is, so put in your ammo orders now, if you haven’t done so.

    +++++++++

    “Here are copies of two letters sent to Georgia Arms just Thursday evening–effectively cancelling a contract he had to purchase 30,000 pounds of expended military brass in .223, 7.62mm, and .50 caliber:

    Dear Valued Customer:

    Please take a moment to note important changes set forth by the Defense Logistics Agency:

    Recently it has been determined that fired munitions of all calibers, shapes and sizes have been designated to be Demil code B. As a result and in conjunction with DLA’s current Demil code B policy, this notice will serve as official notification which requires Scrap Venture (SV) to implement mutilation as a condition of sale for all sales of fired munitions effective immediately. This notice also requires SV to immediately cease delivery of any fired munitions that have been recently sold or on active term contracts, unless the material has been mutilated prior to sale or SV personnel can attest to the mutilation after delivery. A certificate of destruction is required in either case.

    Thank you,

    DOD Surplus
    15051 N Kierland Blvd # 300
    Scottsdale, AZ 85254

    March 12, 2009

    Larry Haynie
    Georgia Arms
    PO Box 238
    Villa Rica, GA 30180

    Re: Event 7084-6200:

    Dear Larry Haynie,

    Effective immediately DOD Surplus, LLC, will be implementing new requirements for mutilation of fired shell casings. The new DRMS requirement calls for DOD Surplus personnel to witness the mutilation of the property and sign the Certificate of Destruction. Mutilation of the property can be done at the DRMO, if permitted by the Government, or it may be mutilated at a site chosen by the buyer. Mutilation means that the property will be destroyed to the extent prevents its reuse or reconstruction. DOD Surplus personnel will determine when property has been sufficiently mutilated to meet the requirements of the Government.

    If you do not agree with the new conditions of your spot sale, please sign the appropriate box provided below stating that you do not agree to the new terms and would like to cancel your purchase effective immediately. If you do agree to the new terms please sign in the appropriate box provided below to acknowledge your understanding and agreement with the new requirements relating to your purchase. Fax the signed document back to (480) 367-1450, emailed responses are not acceptable.

    Please respond to this request no later than close of business Monday, March 16th, 2009.

    Sincerely,

    Government Liquidation.

    Got that? From now on, remanufacturers of military brass will not be able to buy surplus brass from DOD–actually from Government Liquidators, llc.–the corporation that sells surplus materials for the U.S. government. At least, not in any form recognizable as once-fired brass ammunition.

    Now all brass ammunition will have to be shredded, and sold as scrap.

    Georgia Arms, who brought this to our attention, is the 5th largest ammunition manufacturer of centerfire pistol and rifle ammunition in the U.S.

    “We’re right up there behind Hornady,” Larry Haynie told me.

    He also told me with the cancellation of his contract to purchase this brass, and the ending of his ability to purchase any more expended military ammunition, he will have to severely curtail his operation–laying off approximately half his 60-person work force.

    Haynie further pointed out this move is a stupendous waste of taxpayer money–reducing the worth of the brass some 80%–from casings, to shredded bulk brass.

    He stated most of this will now go to foundries where it will be melted down, cast in shippable forms, and likely be sold to China, one of the largest purchasers of U.S. metals on the open market.”

    ++++++++++++++++

    What this all means is that the O-man, rather than get Congress to pass an anti-gun law, is attempting to dry up the ammo sources by executive order (don’t know if an order has been entered, but DOD answers to the Commander in Chief). Well, you can’t say you weren’t warned.

    This affects domestic remanufacturers, so it only crimps supply and makes it more expensive. But a lot of supply is foreign eastern bloc (Wolf, Privi Partizan, etc.) and it doesn’t take much imagination to foresee that these shipments will be hit with tariffs or new inspection requirements or something to slow down or stop their importation.

    On the plus side, if you have ammo, it is a commodity.

    Okay, Off Topic alert over. I have to get back to work. Really.

  123. #123 – 3b – Is it that bad? I haven’t worked in the FiDi area since 2k6.

  124. Hard Place says:

    #116 hardplace: YOu have nto seen the enormous amount of office space available down here.

    3b,

    I have. I look out my window and see emptiness. Amazing how they are looking at selling this at 2/3rd’s peak valuation. I didn’t think commercial had dropped that steeply yet. I think it would get there, but not this fast. I believe I read some deals were getting done at 30% off peak. 66% is a lot! Buying SRS as we speak!

  125. Seneca says:

    Re: the 90% tax on bonus payments for families with incomes over $250k.

    So if you were a mid-level IT Manager at AIG whose job is to keep servers humming and helpdesk service high and you earn $125,001 a year AND you have a wife who is a junior attorney at Freddie Mac in the Human Resources department earning $125,000 a year, AND the both of you got $10,000 bonuses as you have each year for the past 5 years for performing above expectations, you will pay $19,000 of that $20,000 back to Uncle Sam and the other $1000 will likely go back to your local mayor and council?

    I still question this $250k line in the sand that we use from NYC to Peoira.

    Meanwhile, the senior executives at these firms will have to pay $2.7 mil of their $3.0 mil bonus to Uncle Sam and still have $300,000 leftover to buy the wife a new car and pay their kids tuition for the next few years.

    Yeah, this seems fair to me.

  126. Hard Place says:

    #116 – There have been a lot of reports that the commercial RE sector had absolutely tanked in NYC last year. Could it possibly have gotten this bad? If it has that doesn’t leave any of the residential construction any room to maneuver (like converting 20 Pine back to offices). Things could get very bad indeed.

    Without a doubt. Some players are locked out if they are doing conversions, etc… Repositioning was not a good idea.

  127. 3b says:

    #127 toshirO: 20 Pine is an old building, obsolete as office space (IMO).

    Than there is also 75 Wall St condo/ former offcie building (only about 20 yrs old),99 Wall St another condo/ office building, and 100 Water St yet another.

    All converted to condos, with lots of available units. And they are all right near AIG’s building.

    Plus lots more on John/Fulton St, and eventually we will have ground zero rebuilt.

  128. scribe says:

    from Newsday, on Hamptons houses being auctioned online for half price:

    http://weblogs.newsday.com/realestate/blog/2009/03/some_hamptons_homes_are_half_o.html

  129. HEHEHE says:

    Watch for a continuation of this trend going forward:

    AP
    China defends denial of Coke bid for juice maker

    http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/090319/as_china_coca_cola_huiyuan.html?.v=5

  130. 3b says:

    #129 Toshiro: yes it is. And I am only just mentioning a few examples. ALos tons of conversions doen on lower Broadway, and lots of small old office buildings that were converted. Rent/lease sale signs everywhere.

  131. make money says:

    2009-10 will be known as the wealth preservation years.

    Believe in Shiny or borrow to the tilts and own real stuff can can be sold overseas.

    Believe that!

  132. Hard Place says:

    3b says:
    March 19, 2009 at 11:52 am
    #127 toshirO: 20 Pine is an old building, obsolete as office space (IMO).

    Than there is also 75 Wall St condo/ former offcie building (only about 20 yrs old),99 Wall St another condo/ office building, and 100 Water St yet another.

    All converted to condos, with lots of available units. And they are all right near AIG’s building.

    Plus lots more on John/Fulton St, and eventually we will have ground zero rebuilt.

    back in the last bust in the early 90′s downtown in BPC was where the condo deals were for Manhattan. An uncle of mine took a bath on a condo. Looks like Fidi will be where deals will be found. Those buildings are solid, but a little cramped down there and not enough park space. BPC is a little better. I may start sniffing for cheap rents, but my landlord cut my rent 10%. I’m happily renting.

  133. make money says:

    Watch for a continuation of this trend going forward:

    AP
    China defends denial of Coke bid for juice maker

    Hehehe,

    My man BC Bob sais ” protectionism is the last straw”

    “more money, mo problems”

  134. #133 – All converted to condos, with lots of available units.

    It certainly has potential for inexpensive residential in the future…
    It needs a supermarket though.

  135. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    Philadelphia Area Factories Shrink as Orders Slump

    Manufacturing in the Philadelphia region shrank in March for the 15th time in the last 16 months as orders and employment weakened.

    The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s general economic index improved to minus 35 from minus 41.3 in February, the bank said today. Negative numbers signal contraction.

    Manufacturers are scaling back production and reducing expenses as the global economy sinks. Clogged credit markets forced the Federal Reserve yesterday to announce $1.1 trillion in additional initiatives, including buying Treasury securities, in a bid to revive economic growth.

    “Manufacturers are clearly struggling — not only domestically but globally,” said Steven Wood, president of Insight Economics LLC in Danville, California. “Smaller order books do not portend well for a substantial recovery in production.”

    Economists forecast the index would improve to minus 39, according to the median of 53 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Projections ranged from minus 45.1 to minus 30.

  136. the crazy man in the corner says:

    comrade (128) -

    i just heard about that also ..

    so rediculous, its unbelievable what they are trying to do.

    might as well revoke the 2nd amendment.

  137. PGC says:

    #120 Shore Guy

    If you do pick up these, don’t forget the ‘grim commission’.

    And if you don’t want the green box, my kids would love it for crayons.

  138. 3b says:

    #140 toshiro: It has one, a Gristedes on Maiden Lane,and a Sleepys, and Duane Reades everywhere.

    Also a BMW dealer on Wall & William, and a Tiffany’s on Wall.

  139. Hard Place says:

    #133 – All converted to condos, with lots of available units.

    It certainly has potential for inexpensive residential in the future…
    It needs a supermarket though.

    Inexpensive residential coming soon in 20 Pine. Sales previously over 1200/sqft. Bulk sale ask of about $650/sqft. Get 80 of your millionaire friends together and buy the place out. I think they turned down some offers in the $500′s. One developer I knew threw it out there, but didn’t stick.

  140. Hard Place says:

    Also a Whole Foods closeby in Tribeca on Warren and Greenwich.

  141. 3b says:

    #146 Oh and of course Starbucks on every corner, except for the one they closed on Wall/William.

  142. comrade nom deplume says:

    Here’s something else that is unfreakinbelievable. This is reprinted on CNBC today from the UK Telegraph. I just had to come back and post it.

    “Philip Chawner, 53, and his 57-year-old wife Audrey weigh 24st. Their daughter Emma, 19, weighs 17st, while her older sister Samantha, 21, weighs 18st.

    The family from Blackburn claim £22,508 a year in benefits, equivalent to the take-home pay from a £30,000 salary.

    The Chawners, haven’t worked in 11 years, claim their weight is a hereditary condition and the money they receive is insufficient to live on.

    Mr Chawner said: “What we get barely covers the bills and puts food on the table. It’s not our fault we can’t work. We deserve more.”

    The family claim to spend £50 a week on food and consume 3,000 calories each a day. The recommended maximum intake is 2,000 for women and 2,500 for men.

    “We have cereal for breakfast, bacon butties for lunch and microwave pies with mashed potato or chips for dinner,” Mrs Chawner told Closer magazine.

    “All that healthy food, like fruit and veg, is too expensive. We’re fat because it’s in our genes. Our whole family is overweight,” she added.

    Each week, Mr and Mrs Chawner, who have been married for 23 years, receive £177 in income support and incapacity benefit. Mrs Chawner is paid an extra £330-a-month disability allowance for epilepsy and asthma, both a result of being overweight.

    Mr Chawner gets £71 a month after developing Type 2 diabetes because of his size. He was on a waiting list for a gastric band last year, but a heart condition made the operation unsuitable. Their daughter Samantha receives £84 in Jobseekers’ Allowance each fortnight while Emma, who is training to be a hairdresser, gets £58 every two weeks under a hardship fund for low-income students.

    Emma, said: “I’m a student and don’t have time to exercise” she said “We all want to lose weight to stop the abuse we get in the street, but we don’t know how.”

    __________________

    Sad part is, there are probably lots of folks here that are “disabled” because they prefer bacon to berries, and can’t exercise because they’re students. Something tells me that Chuck Norris’ Republic of Texas won’t have disability benefits for pork butt lovers.

    Unfcukingbelievable.

    [rant off]

  143. 3b a Gristedes on Maiden Lane

    Is this new? Or have I had some sort of mental block. I worked at 1CMP for 3 years , I hope my memory isn’t getting that bad.

    a Whole Foods closeby in Tribeca

    I knew about this one. I could afford the place in the FiDi but not Whole Foods;)

  144. Hard Place says:

    Unfcukingbelievable.

    Insane!

  145. #138 – That was on Fark the other day. My favorite quote;
    All that healthy food, like fruit and veg, is too expensive.
    Cost of carrots vs. Doritos?

  146. Clotpoll says:

    tosh (77)-

    For FHA, you can’t play @ less that 580 FICO. FHA actually has no FICO guidelines, but underwriters won’t touch under 580.

    For best rates on conventional, you need 20% DP, 740 FICO. Anything short of that starts the add-ons @ at least 75 bps. For most borrowers we see, the minimum add-ons run anywhere from 125-200 bps. At 200 bps, the borrowers give up close to 100% of the time.

  147. Clotpoll says:

    Just looked out my window.

    Nope. Still no lines of buyers, waiting to pile into RE.

    Time to find something new to short.

  148. 3b says:

    #149 toshiro: Gristedes opened around May or June of 2008.

  149. zieba says:

    “The Decline of the Dollar as the World’s Reserve Currency”

    “U.N. panel says world should ditch dollar”

    http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2009/03/decline-of-dollar-as-worlds-reserve.html

  150. Clotpoll says:

    tosh (110)-

    That’s about the price of a HOV crapbox in 2003. How apropos.

    BTW, a HOV 2003-vintage Garage Mahal should be practically falling apart right now. I’d hope the AIG bldg is in better shape.

  151. Stu says:

    We’re hearing reports of a robbery at a PNC Bank on Bloomfield Ave. in Montclair.

  152. Clotpoll says:

    HE (111)-

    JPM can show them how to do it. They are the masters at pinning billions in losses to dying institutions as the swirl the drain.

    Hell, they did it to LEH.

  153. #152 – clot – For best rates on conventional, you need 20% DP, 740 FICO
    Thanks clot. So they have bumped up requirements. IIRC you needed 720+ around this time last year.

    For most borrowers we see, the minimum add-ons run anywhere from 125-200 bps. At 200 bps, the borrowers give up close to 100% of the time.

    That says a lot, none of it very good.

  154. grim says:

    Banks robbed the taxpayers.

    If I’m recalling this correctly, PNC did take TARP money.

    Maybe a taxpayer just wanted their portion back?

  155. grim says:

    Lest I remind you of the graffiti recently scribed across the side of a building on McCarter Highway in Newark:

    “Where’s my fuckin’ bailout?”

  156. Garage Mahal – That’s great!

  157. Clotpoll says:

    Hard Place (130)-

    The correct response, matey. If you want to hear stories from outside NYC, I can tell you some that will curl your toenails.

    Commercial RE is toast. Maybe for another 15-20 years.

    CMBS are done; finito; kaput. The total write-offs just started, and they will NOT drag on like residential RE. Six months from now, we’ll all be shaking our heads and staring at a smoldering pit of wreckage.

    Don’t believe me? Look at VNO, SPG, GGP, CT, etc. The best of the bunch, VNO, is a gutted shell of a functioning company.

    Who has the most NYC exposure? VNO.

  158. Clotpoll says:

    tosh (162)-

    More descriptive than “tract mansion”.

  159. Clotpoll says:

    Note to Mort Zuckerman:

    I will make you my byatch.

  160. Kettle1 says:

    grim,

    did you ever get a picture of that graffiti?

  161. HEHEHE says:

    “Note to Mort Zuckerman:

    I will make you my byatch.”

    He always has the newspaper business to fall back on.;)

  162. Shore Guy says:

    WHat did Timmy know and when did he know it?

    In which well is he hiding, Lassie?

    http://www.abcnews.go.com/Blotter/story?id=7121389&page=1

  163. make money says:

    I will make you my byatch.

    Bernie got to him first. You should be able to have some fun too.

  164. HEHEHE says:

    Re 168,

    If they want to throw Geithner under the bus there’s their out.

  165. Hard Place says:

    Re 168,

    If they want to throw Geithner under the bus there’s their out.

    Love how the Repub’s are trying to back Obama into a corner on a problem they created.

  166. Shore Guy says:

    In my opinion, if Timmy had any character he would send a resignation letter to B.O. Of course, after telling people that Timmy was uniquely qualified (knows where the bodies are burried?) to run Treasury at this time, B.O. would face the choice of rejecting the resignation (thus accepting whatever fallout comes later on) or admitting that Timmy is not the only one who can run things.

  167. Hard Place says:

    CMBS are done; finito; kaput. The total write-offs just started, and they will NOT drag on like residential RE. Six months from now, we’ll all be shaking our heads and staring at a smoldering pit of wreckage.

    Clot,

    Thought CRE would do the slow leak like residential. Guess I’m wrong on that count.

  168. chicagofinance says:

    Nice quote

    “Though I walk in the shadow of the valley of evil, I have no fear, as I am the biggest bastard in the valley.”

  169. Shore Guy says:

    HArd,

    They are doing so for two reasons: 1) it is a smart political move; 2) B.O. was a goog campaigner but is proving to be inept at Washington power politics. The minute B.O. said, you crosss this line (earmarks)and I will veto, and then did not do so, people stopped fearing his power. He should have vetoed, gone on TV likReagan did in the past, and FORCED congress to send him a clean bill. Even Clinton knew the importance of taking a stand, recall the government shutdown over the budget; Clinton came out of that far more powerful than he went in, and B.O. should have done the same. B.O. talks a good game buthas not shown that he is a strong leader; spends alot, maybe, but he is not strong.

  170. Hard Place says:

    Shore guy,

    BO & Repubs…

    Sure makes for good theater. Pass the popcorn.

  171. sas says:

    “13 firms receiving federal bailout owe back taxes”
    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090319/ap_on_go_co/bailout_delinquent_taxes

    -13 firms receiving billions of dollars in bailout money owe a total of more than $220 million in unpaid federal taxes

  172. sas says:

    who says war isn’t profitable?

    “UTC’s Chief Says Canceling F-22 Could Cost 3,000 Jobs In State”

    http://www.courant.com/business/hc-utc-f22.artmar17,0,66651.story

  173. Kettle1 says:

    hardplace,

    Sure makes for good theater. Pass the popcorn.

    All it does is piss me off. When is the rape and pillaging of our children’s future, entertainment?

    i am not railing at you, but just in general.

    The apathy, ineptitude, sloth and vanity that is the status quo in today’s society is sickening when you consider it in terms of americas past achievements

  174. sas says:

    uhh ohh…

    Kettle1 soon to be writing manifestos and demand they be published in major news publications?

    SAS

  175. RemainCalmAllisWell says:

    For laughs.

    A blog as written by BO’s teleprompter.

    http://baracksteleprompter.blogspot.com/

  176. Kettle1 says:

    SAS

    nope,

    not looking to be a hero or go down in a blaze of glory. nor am i looking for public recognition. Just venting

  177. Hard Place says:

    uhh ohh…

    Kettle1 soon to be writing manifestos and demand they be published in major news publications?

    Historically only the rich, powerful or the insane get noticed.

  178. Hard Place says:

    All it does is piss me off. When is the rape and pillaging of our children’s future, entertainment?

    i am not railing at you, but just in general.

    I’m definitely not a happy camper, but these are surely interesting times…

  179. Kettle1 says:

    Hardplace,

    so you are suggesting that i must be insane?

    ;)

  180. Sastry says:

    Clot, Grim…

    Thanks for the info on the Wingate property (and the Red Bud prior to that). I spoke to the realtor lady about Red Bud, and seems like the bank has accepted an offer (with two others below that). I presume much higher than 450k, and may be very close to 525k.

    The Wingate one is still occupied, so we don’t know what happens to it.

    Overall, it has been a good beginners experience for us.

    S

  181. Shore Guy says:

    Hey Chris, take the heat on this will you buddy? The Pres is awfully weak right now and we could use your help. If this hurts your reelection bid, well,legally we can’t promise anything but you know we would be stupid to forget our friends (well forget for the moment we have been stupid and accept that we will be appreciative, very, very appreciative).

  182. Shore Guy says:

    “rich, powerful… insane ”

    Sounds like the title of a Dostoevsky novel.

  183. Hard Place says:

    Hardplace,

    so you are suggesting that i must be insane?

    ;)

    Not at all…

    What size is that white jacket w/ extra long sleeves?

  184. Shore Guy says:

    Apparently, he was responsible before he wasn’t.

  185. 3b says:

    I #187 sastry:presume much higher than 450k, and may be very close to 525k.

    I would not necessarily presume that at all.

  186. Shore Guy says:

    I wondr if Dodd will need a new apron, one big enough for Timmy to hide behind.

  187. Kettle1 says:

    mentioned here before, but here is bernanke’s play book for anyone interested.

    http://www.federalreserve.gov/BOARDDOCS/SPEECHES/2002/20021121/default.htm#f

  188. Clotpoll says:

    Hard (176)-

    I’d rather watch Dachshunds race.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TrtB_6HVOjQ

    “BO & Repubs…

    Sure makes for good theater. Pass the popcorn.”

  189. Clotpoll says:

    Shore (189)-

    …or the biography of Randolph Hearst.

  190. Clotpoll says:

    Has O filled the post of Secretary of Lying Sacks of Shit?

    I nominate Chris Dodd.

  191. daddyo says:

    CRE is definitely done, without some major revival of the CMBS market under a new structure. There is way too much property out there to refinance, and nothing to refinance with it.

    Insurance companies and other balance sheet lenders are almost out of the market except for the most stable, unlevered properties. Banks are out.

    The only reason the crash hasn’t happened is because most CRE loans have been “extended” because NOONE wants to see defaults. It’s in everyone’s best interest right now to just sit tight and pray things get better.

    GGP has been able to extend about 10 different maturities since Q408, a few of which they are currently defaulted on, but noone wants to move to the next step.

    Discovery will be a destructive process.

  192. make money says:

    Has O filled the post of Secretary of Lying Sacks of Shit?

    I nominate Chris Dodd

    Clot,

    Can’t do it. Background checks revealed he ows 250K in back taxes to IRS.

  193. make money says:

    Discovery will be a destructive process.

    unless you’re sitting on a pile of SRS!!!

  194. Steve says:

    CRE anecdote:

    HF friend, looking for some space in midtown in past few months, found top-quality space and is subletting for $50/sq ft.

    I believe the other bagholding HF is paying in excees of $150/sq ft.

    Ouch.

  195. Hard Place says:

    CRE anecdote:

    HF friend, looking for some space in midtown in past few months, found top-quality space and is subletting for $50/sq ft.

    I believe the other bagholding HF is paying in excees of $150/sq ft.

    Ouch.

    There’s the mark to market that shows the 66% haircut in the value of that AIG building.

  196. Sastry says:

    “subletting for $50/sq ft…”

    Is it per month? A 1000 sq ft place would be 5k, right? Isn’t it a bit high [clearly I don't know much about NYC]?

    S

  197. Sastry says:

    Strike that… I didn’t read the “top notch place” part and didn’t read HF as Hedge Fund. Still have the $100 per sq ft (selling price) figure from AIG’s office building.

    S

  198. Hard Place says:

    Discovery will be a destructive process.

    unless you’re sitting on a pile of SRS!!!

    Just finished reloading today, along with some Au miners.

  199. bklynhawk says:

    OT-

    FIRST LOOK: The Real Housewives of New Jersey

    Get ready for The Real Housewives of New Jersey!

    The newest cast of Housewives is close-knit and includes friends, a pair of sisters — who married brothers! — and their sister-in-law. The show is set to premiere May 12 (11 p.m. ET) on Bravo.

    http://tvwatch.people.com/2009/03/17/first-look-the-real-housewives-of-new-jersey/

    Maybe we could have a GTG watch party for this?!

  200. Clotpoll says:

    sastry (204)-

    That’s per year.

  201. Clotpoll says:

    Steve (202)-

    The best part will be when Bagholder figures out the other firm’s rent and withholds their rent until the LL gives them the same $50/ft deal.

    Now, multiply the above scenario by about 2 mm, and you have the current state of landlord/tenant relations in the US.

  202. Clotpoll says:

    Next, imagine that the LL stops paying their mortgage, claiming to the lender that half their tenants are either withholding rent or jerking them around.

    I call it “shit flowing uphill”.

  203. Hard Place says:

    “subletting for $50/sq ft…”

    Is it per month? A 1000 sq ft place would be 5k, right? Isn’t it a bit high [clearly I don't know much about NYC]?

    S

    I believe that’s per month it was a big deal when deals were being closed above $100/sq ft. $150 is insanely high.

  204. Hard Place says:

    Alright guys. Gotta buckle down before heading out to vaca…

    Will check out first hand the situation in SF, Calif.

  205. Clotpoll says:

    “And you do the hokey-pokey

    And you turn yourself around,

    And that’s how debt destruction works.”

  206. cli says:

    I will try to check the outside of a foreclosure townhouse this weekend.

    Can anyone share some thoughts about buying a foreclosure townhouse? Any suggestion really appreciated.

    #9 I am interested in a foreclosed townhouse in a gated community. I guess it is less likely for the townhouse to have severe damage than single family house because there may be someone maintaining the exterior of the townhouse. The owners of the other units in the community may try to prevent damage to 1 of the unit.Any thoughts on this?

    Also, if I want to check the townhouse, how shall I proceed? If I can only take a look outside the townhouse, what shall I look for? Do I need a buyer’s agent to be involved in buying the foreclosure? If yes, how much commission shall I pay to the agent?

  207. veto says:

    mercer county comp…

    101 Brandon Rd,
    Pennington NJ 08534
    4 beds, 2.5 baths, 2,667 sq ft
    Lot Size .57 Acres
    2008 Property Tax: $10,523

    Sold 08/05/2008: $595,000
    Sold 04/01/2007: $609,000
    Sold 05/05/2006: $620,000
    Sold 12/17/1993: $255,430

  208. chicagofinance says:

    Clotpoll says:
    March 18, 2009 at 7:09 pm

    Mikey, in full battle mode:
    Wednesday, March 18, 2009
    Line in the Sand

    Six months ago, the AIG exposure was a maximum of $400 billion and King Henry pulled a quickie to bail out AIG . . . with the slight of hand of bailing out Goldman.

    clot: I am really beginning to hate this specious argument that AIG was bailed out because GS was its biggest counterparty. That situation may in fact be true, but it is reckless to assume that GS had naked credit exposure to AIG. If GS was doing their job, they would have noted the deteriorating credit profile of AIG and taken steps to mitigate that risk. BOTTOM LINE: if you don’t know material non-public information about GS’s book, then you are merely taking wild stabs in the dark.

    In my own experience, I have hedged hundreds of millions of dollars of various exposures. However, while hedging gains/losses were published in public filings, the return in itself meant nothing. If you were not aware of the full inside view of the risk exposures, it is ridiculous to draw any conclusion that has value beyond heresay.

    I can easily build a case where GS would have profited handsomely by AIG tanking……you cannot know…and anyone willing to grandstand on heresay is an a$$.

  209. chicagofinance says:

    grim says:
    March 19, 2009 at 8:56 am
    James – Check your email -
    Donation Day -

    With all the cash you folks seem to be rolling in, I’d have expected a few bucks in the tip jar by now.

    grim: I have that same eery feeling when a read a good amount of the boasting here. It is hard to 1.000…….but people magically seem to easily outperform here…..

  210. Clotpoll says:

    cli (214)-

    Is it being foreclosed? Or, is it already foreclosed and bank-owned? It’s unclear from your description.

    Either way, I’d suggest saving the gas and starting to read up on both pre-foreclosure and REO. I get the feeling you’re at the very beginning, and you want to spend that time learning the rules of the road, not thinking about buying.

    You can’t assume no damage, just because it’s got exterior maintenance. You also can’t assume the neighbors are doing anything other than praying somebody buys it.

  211. Clotpoll says:

    Those damned assumptions will kill you every time.

  212. #214 – Can anyone share some thoughts about buying a foreclosure townhouse?

    I suppose this would be obvious, but; If they’re in foreclosure check on how current they are with taxes and HOA/condo fees/etc.

  213. Clotpoll says:

    chi (216)-

    You make a good point. But looking past your scenario, I think the general anger that AIG counterparties were paid off in full- without even the slightest attempt to mitigate AIG’s payout of gubmint money (which amounted to a giant pass-through of TARP funds) is the real story.

    I think we can all agree Morgan takes what can be generously described as a “shotgun approach” to his written rants. However, he has called every shot.

    I will listen to him until he gets it wrong.

  214. Sean says:

    The 90% Bonus Tax just passed in the House. I am affected by this bill along with many people I know, this is not good for Real Estate in NJ. Anything over 250k for a married couple or 125k filing married but single is a 90% clawback?

    http://www.thomas.gov/cgi-bin/query/D?c111:1:./temp/~c1111uhnUk::

    (B) the excess of–

    (i) the adjusted gross income of the taxpayer for such taxable year, over

    (ii) $250,000 ($125,000 in the case of a married individual filing a separate return).

  215. Victorian says:

    Chi (216) -

    Doesn’t the fact that Blankfein was present at the AIG bailout meeting seem a tad suspicious to you?

  216. Clotpoll says:

    Can we agree that AIG and GS are each, in their own way, completely corrupt and unethical institutions?

    The only difference is that one meets the baseline standard for success and one doesn’t.

  217. Clotpoll says:

    Sean (222)-

    Looks like you just got hit with a writ of attainder.

    How can that be constitutional?

  218. Sean says:

    Clot- no lawyer here, but one thing is for sure if Congress wants to add a few more nails in the coffin of the markets this is the way to do it.

    My issue with the bill is the marriage penalty. I should just divorce my wife and avoid the taxes no?

  219. Sean says:

    Didn’t GE recieve TARP money? Does this mean the clowns on CNBC get their bonuses taxed at 90%?

  220. HEHEHE says:

    “Doesn’t the fact that Blankfein was present at the AIG bailout meeting seem a tad suspicious to you?”

    A TAD?

  221. Clotpoll says:

    sean (226)-

    Why stop there? Whack her, and feed her to a wood chipper.

    Problem solved. :)

  222. Clotpoll says:

    Sean (227)-

    In that case, I take it back. It’s ok for writs of attainder if it impoverishes Dennis Kneale.

  223. Clotpoll says:

    I need unguent…

  224. Stu says:

    ChiFi…

    People here seem to magically outperform because the majority here is shorting during the 2nd best opportunity to have done so in the past 100 years.

    I also think you are not hearing much about the losses compared to boasts of all of the gains. I don’t need to tell you how many people lie on the internet.

    Or perhaps all of the losses here are socialized? :P

  225. make money says:

    If I was an executive at AIG or a trader there I would think “Ok so why am I working here again? I’m getting taxed 90% of my bonus, I’m demonized and over regulated” then I would make a 50:1 leveraged bad trade on purpose and quit to send out a message

  226. make money says:

    ChiFi…

    People here seem to magically outperform because the majority here is shorting during the 2nd best opportunity to have done so in the past 100 years.

    I also think you are not hearing much about the losses compared to boasts of all of the gains. I don’t need to tell you how many people lie on the internet.

    Or perhaps all of the losses here are socialized? :P

    ChiFi,

    In the past year it has been very hard to loose money with SRS and SKF. We all know the range limits and get in and get out.

  227. zieba says:

    Make,

    I don’t understand the intent of your post.

  228. make money says:

    Didn’t GE recieve TARP money? Does this mean the clowns on CNBC get their bonuses taxed at 90%?

    It’s gonna make an interesting debate on CNBC tonight.

  229. make money says:

    I don’t understand the intent of your post

    Zieba,

    Who says you have to have an intent.

  230. Victorian says:

    “then I would make a 50:1 leveraged bad trade on purpose”

    Isn’t that a normal trade @ AIG? :). What you just described is blackmail, give me my bonus else I “really” screw the company. I guess that pretty much describes the current crop in Wall St.

  231. zieba says:

    Thinking like that just does not compute to me and i was briefly trying to figure out, not having read the threat, whether you were for or against.

    Anyway, I’ve been trying to find an article from a while back about a wife who sued her husband for emotional distress after he lost her job and she could not longer afford $10 organic mangos… something like that. Man, that’s archive material right there.

  232. zieba says:

    errr…lost job, strike “her”..

  233. Sean says:

    Make – the 90% bonus tax is for all Tarp recipients over 5 billion. GE is not on the list.

    http://www.propublica.org/special/show-me-the-tarp-money

    A few recipients like BofA and GS have stated they will pay back the money this year.

  234. Sastry says:

    make money #235:

    I’ve seen many people that boast of winnings, and very few that actually tell about their losses. I probably am a little bit weird, in that I would quickly tell about my losses (getting sympathy, making the listening friends feel better in comparison, etc.) and actually feel awkward/guilty about talking about winnings (I would feel sad if everyone around is making money and I am not).

    But one thing I’ve seen is that the boasters tend to “score” in short-term relationships (women, job related, etc.), and the “humbler” ones seemed to do well longer-term (marriage, stable career, general perception, etc.)

    I should have boasted more in my youth though… Too late!

    S

  235. still_looking says:

    where’s our Bergen County GTG?

    sl

  236. HEHEHE says:

    Hey I told you all I took a bath last year. Stayed in the oil patch way too long. Taking a bath on FXP right now but I see that changing over a couple months.

  237. Sastry says:

    make money #234:

    “I would make a 50:1 leveraged bad trade”

    Isn’t the point of regulation to prevent AIG from further betting with leverage. They keep saying that they need to “unwind orderly” and betting more is surely not the path.

    If I were overseeing a trader who is overleveraged, the outcome should be orderly liquidation, with no opening of new positions.

    Or, is the bailout money being used to open more positions? If so, no amount of the bailout money will be sufficient, ever.

    S

  238. Sean says:

    We are definitely going back to the 1970s.

    NJ considers ban on bare-it-all ‘Brazilian’ wax
    By BETH DeFALCO, Associated Press Writer

    Thursday, March 19, 2009
    (03-19) 11:23 PDT Trenton, N.J. (AP) –

    New Jersey is drawing the line when it comes to bikini waxing. The state Board of Cosmetology and Hairstyling is moving toward a ban on genital waxing altogether after two women reported being injured in their quest for a smooth bikini line.

    Both women were hospitalized for infections following so-called “Brazilian” bikini waxes; one of the women has filed a lawsuit, according to Jeff Lamm, a spokesman for New Jersey’s Division of Consumer Affairs, which oversees the cosmetology board.

    Technically, genital waxing has never been allowed — only the face, neck, abdomen, legs and arms are permitted — but because bare-it-all “Brazilians” weren’t specifically banned, state regulators haven’t enforced the law.

    “The genital area is not part of the abdomen or legs as some might assume,” Lamm said.

    Officials with the National Cosmetology Association and National-Interstate Council of State Boards of Cosmetology said they were unaware of another state that has banned genital waxing.

    Regular bikini waxes would still be allowed.

    Genital waxing can be dangerous in that the hot wax can irritate or tear delicate skin in the bikini area, resulting in infections, ingrown hairs and rashes, according to skin care experts.

    Despite such risks, millions of American women — and some men — choose to have the hair down there ripped away, and a majority of salons in New Jersey offer the procedure for between $50 to $60.

    The state Board of Cosmetology meets next on April 14 and will decide whether to move forward with banning the procedure, made popular in Brazil to accommodate skimpy thong bikinis.

    The earliest the ban could take effect would be sometime in May, Lamm said, and salons that continue to perform it could be fined.

    For salon owners, discontinuing the popular service could mean a substantial drop in business, especially as summer swimsuit season nears.

    Spa owner Linda Orsuto, who owns 800 West Salon & Spa in Cherry Hill, estimates that most of 1,800 bikini waxes performed at her business last year were Brazilian-style.

    “It’s huge,” she said, adding that her customers don’t think their bikini lines are anyone’s business but their own. “It’s just not right.”

    She said many customers would likely travel across state lines to get it and some might even try to wax themselves.

  239. comrade nom deplume says:

    [222] sean,

    The marriage penalty is worse in 2011. That is why I counsel high net worth couples NOT to marry but live in sin as long as you are comfortable with it. With domestic partner benefits, changes to IRA rules, and the like, the benefit of marriage has diminished for such couples.

    As for your bill of attainder, my condolences. The legislation was structured in such a way as to attempt to avoid that status, but I foresee a test case coming on at the Court of Federal Claims (don’t go to Tax Court) as there is more than enough in the record to show that it was intended as punishment. I would LOVE to handle something like that, but I think that, ATEOTD, some well known litigator from one of the major DC firms will handle the case for the entire class.

    God help us if the courts don’t strike this down. We will have descended into mob rule.

  240. chicagofinance says:

    Victorian says:
    March 19, 2009 at 2:45 pm
    Chi (216) – Doesn’t the fact that Blankfein was present at the AIG bailout meeting seem a tad suspicious to you?

    Vic: suspicious if you have a suspicious mind…..if the intent was to ensure the viability of AIG, then a large counterparty could easily shut down their trade and walk away with posted collateral…..GS was the biggest…if they weren’t on board, it was over….NOTE: I am not disagreeing with you; but make sure you keep an open mind….to my earlier point……maybe it was in GS economic self-intent to bankrupt AIG, and they needed to be bought off to prevent the bankruptcy from being executed……flies right in the face of everyone’s assumptions, but would be consistent with the currently partially disclosed fact pattern, NO?

  241. still_looking says:

    nom 247

    ATEOTD ?

    sl

  242. Herring123 says:

    Snarky response to “ATEOTD?” -

    http://lmgtfy.com/?q=ATEOTD

  243. Stu says:

    At the end of the day SL!

  244. HEHEHE says:

    SEC Charges Former N.Y. State Official and Top Political Advisor for Defrauding New York’s Retirement Fund in Multi-Million Dollar Kickback Scheme

    http://www.sec.gov/news/press/2009/2009-62.htm

  245. HEHEHE says:

    Consultant Hank Morris, Hevesi aide David Loglisci get corruption charges in $35M pension scheme

    http://www.nydailynews.com/news/2009/03/19/2009-03-19_consultant_hank_morris_hevesi_aide_david.html

  246. House Hunter says:

    anecdotal story…my husband ran into a friend that has a condo at the beach (not sure which one, but in Jersey) He just got a letter that due to defaults on mortgages and fees, the condo assoc fee was being raised from 300 per month to $800..wow

  247. Stu says:

    In other news, my French brother in law was laid off at Business Objects last week. He is taking it in stride.

  248. Sastry says:

    nom…

    “God help us if the courts don’t strike this down. We will have descended into mob rule.”

    There were so many outrageous things that have happened (Guantanamo bay, warrantless spying, supreme court appointing a president, never expiring copyrights, patents on basic “concepts”, DMCA).

    Anyway, this bill won’t make it through. Goldman et al. will ensure that it won’t [or at least, have something like it is not applicable "if the firm is 'fully hedged'"].

    S

  249. Sastry says:

    Sean #222

    Condolences if you are personally affected by it. I doubt this bill will even pass — some fix will be inserted in the senate version.

    May be you will get lucky and the bonus will be taxed at a lower rate than regular income :)

    S

  250. comrade nom deplume says:

    [256] sastry,

    Is your point that objectionable and potentially unconstitutional legislation or executive action is illegal only if done by the GOP?

    Further, wasn’t it the contention of the democratic party that such actions were not authorized by, and not supported by, the american people?

    In short, do you favor the purer Greek form of democracy, which is to do the people’s bidding, at any time, whatever it is?

    Socrates was ordered to drink hemlock because the public voted it so.

    Remember what Franklin’s answer to the woman in Philadelphia who asked him what they created at the Congress? “A republic madame, if you can keep it.”

    Ask the Holocaust survivors what they think about mob rule and official scapegoating.

  251. Stu says:

    I never get bonuses. My salary ensures that I work hard. If I don’t, I simply get fired.

    Everyone enjoy the circus. Maybe you’ll get some free bread with it as well.

  252. still_looking says:

    Stu, 251

    Thanks!

    sl

  253. skep-tic says:

    #124

    signing bonus?

  254. Sastry says:

    259#

    I am just rambling… In my opinion, the Iraq War trumps all the fuss about financial melt down, etc. [simply in terms of major loss of human life in Iraq plus destruction of quality of life there ... versus an overall degradation of quality of life in US].

    My point is, more or less, “everything is sh.it”. The cures are going to be worse than the diseases…

    S

  255. skep-tic says:

    #131

    “I still question this $250k line in the sand that we use from NYC to Peoira.”

    agreed. it is ridiculous

  256. skep-tic says:

    Mr. O praising geithner has a “heckuva job, Brownie” ring to it

  257. sas says:

    “think you are not hearing much about the losses”

    no bones here.

    I lost my shirt on a flat on London, and this stupid stock market as cost me some jack. i.e. CAT

    I tain’t perfect.

    SAS

  258. Victorian says:

    Chi (248) -

    Good points. However, I would like to debate further, if you don’t mind. Also, remember that I am financial noob and do not know anything about the inner machinations at these firms.

    “Maybe it was in GS economic self-intent to bankrupt AIG, and they needed to be bought off to prevent the bankruptcy from being executed”

    The story AFAIK, is that GS bought some CDS/derivatives from AIG as a hedge against their mortgage exposure.

    I guess, if we go by your story that they would have stood to benefit more from AIG bankruptcy, then they must have bought CDS against AIG from some other entity, whose potential gain was greater than their mortgage hedge.

    If that is true, then they knew that AIG was in some deep sh1t. Why would they choose to buy CDS from them taking into account counterparty risk?

  259. sas says:

    coming to a theatre near you:

    “French unions have claimed that up to three million people have taken part in street protests amid a national strike against France’s economic policies”
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7951949.stm

  260. make money says:

    It reminds me of Dick Fuld saying ” we are well capitalized”

    Omama is learnig quick.

  261. the crazy man in the corner says:

    so, if one robs a bank that is nationalized.. is it considered a crime if you rob from yourself?

  262. Shore Guy says:

    “Mr. O praising geithner has a “heckuva job, Brownie” ring to it”

    When a politician says he or she stands behind someone, it is usually so they are in a better position to shove them over the cliff (or under the bus, if you prefer).

  263. comrade nom deplume says:

    [263] sastry,

    Sorry, lost it a bit there. This is a blog and I should not have expected high discourse, especially since I don’t dish it myself. Fact that you are usually one of the more thoughtful opinions here (doesn’t mean I agree, just that you appear to be able to support your views) meant that I took things even more out of context.

    Must skulk back to work now. See you all tonight.

  264. sas says:

    “if one robs a bank that is nationalized.. is it considered a crime if you rob from yourself?”

    give it a try and report back to us.

    :P
    SAS

  265. Shore Guy says:

    “the condo assoc fee was being raised from 300 per month to $800..wow”

    In Florida, this has been a HUGE problem. This issue is one that keeps me from buying any property that has an association.

  266. House Whine says:

    What problem is there on taxing the bonuses of employees of companies which we, the taxpayers, handed our hard earned money to for bailing them out? I think this bill only applies to companies which received TARP funds. There has to be some kind of accountability.

  267. grim says:

    Well… That was quick.

    Fed balance sheet rises 8.7% to $2.04 trillion

    The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet increased 8.7% to $2.041 trillion in the week ended March 18, the central bank said on Thursday. By comparison, the Fed’s assets and liabilities were only $870 billion in December 2007. Since then, the Fed has started a concerted program to get credit flowing into the economy. The central bank announced plans on Wednesday to expand its balance sheet by $1.25 trillion and begin buying long-term Treasury securities. Combined with another $1 trillion in assets under a new asset-backed security lending facility that began this week, the Fed’s balance sheet could double. The Fed hopes that by flooding reserves into the bank system, the economy will gain some traction. The largest increase in the balance sheet came from $157.56 billion in purchases of mortgage-backed securities.

  268. make money says:

    anecdotal story…my husband ran into a friend that has a condo at the beach (not sure which one, but in Jersey) He just got a letter that due to defaults on mortgages and fees, the condo assoc fee was being raised from 300 per month to $800..wow

    Omama is doing the same thing with loan mod. Only difference is some people pay $300 and the “rich” pay $1,500.

  269. Shore Guy says:

    ” as one of those employees who has been “made redundant” it’s kind of discouraging to feel that I am paying for the irresponsible actions of others.”

    I feel the same way. I have not fired myself yet, but clients everywhere are looking to cut spending and this will be a down year. I hate the fact that the fat cats are scratchingeach others backs and we, the prudent people of the United States of America, end up facing the prospect of losing everything because the people with everything wanted more and people who had little were allowed to spend like they had money to burn.

  270. make money says:

    What problem is there on taxing the bonuses of employees of companies which we, the taxpayers, handed our hard earned money to for bailing them out? I think this bill only applies to companies which received TARP funds. There has to be some kind of accountability.

    We trying to orderly liquidate AIG. but JPM, GS, MER, C, BAC which succesful broker is gonna work for them?

    two of my personal friends from Mer are contacting Deutche bank, UBS etc to get the hell out of dodge.

    Would you work, produce, and bust your tail for 10% of your labor?

    Did anyone include NY state, SS tax, FICA etc…FCUK’ you might even owe on your bonus.

  271. #277 – this bill only applies to companies which received TARP funds

    A number of firms received TARP funds against their will as per their own statements. I’d take that with a grain or two of salt.

    There has to be some kind of accountability.

    There should be, but these should be pursued as criminal(?**) matters. This shotgun retribution approach is the kind of over reaction that makes matters worse.

    Having said all that, this is the calm before the pension-fund-implosion storm.

    ** fraud, conspiracy to commit same; didn’t Sarbox make the CEO/CFOs culpable in such events? Obvs someone with more knowledge of the legal aspects should be commenting on the AIG case.

  272. zieba says:

    Whine,

    Apparently this does not sit well with the upper earning echelon of posters.

  273. Sean says:

    NJ attempts to change it’s name from the Garden State to the Bush State.

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090319/ap_on_re_us/odd_brazilian_wax_ban

  274. #284 – There’s a “NJ girls have big hair” joke in there that I’m too lazy to make.

  275. grim says:

    Glad to know our state legislators have solved the economic crisis and have moved on to other issues.

  276. Seneca says:

    House Whine [277]

    >>What problem is there on taxing the
    >> bonuses of employees of companies
    >> which we, the taxpayers, handed our
    >> hard earned money to for bailing them
    >> out? … There has to be some kind of
    >> accountability.

    Whine, I don’t disagree on the accountability point. What I take issue with is the broad brush they are using to determine who has to give it back. There is a big difference between the exec who got a $6 million bonus and has $10 million already in his savings vs. the exec who got a $20k bonus and whose $500,000 in 401k money is now down to $250k.

    I don’t really expect anyone earning $65k in their HH to feel sorry for the guy who has to turn the $25k bonus over to Uncle Sam but once you hit those income thresholds and you realize your life isn’t much better even though you are earning twice as much here in beautiful NJ, you will understand.

    Why is the threshold 125 single 250 joint? How does this number apply to a HH living in Kansas as well as New Jersey?

    I know I am wasting my breath. Companies with multiple locations across the US give the same 3-4% Cost of Living increase to their staff in Nebraska as they do to their NYC employees. At least, they used to.

  277. cli says:

    Thanks a lot for feedback.

    For the foreclosure townhouse I am interested, I believe it has already been foreclosed cause it is in the auction scheduled early next month according to sheriff’s website.

    Yes, I can’t assume that there is no damage to the townhouse. Is there anything I can do to find out whether there is any damage? Or, anyone who wants to buy a foreclosure house has to take the risk?

    I once drove by a foreclosure single family house last year. I just picked a foreclosure house in the nice section of the town with highest judgement amount. But it is really disappointed to find out that that house was once listed in NJMLS at a price much lower than the judgement. In the NJMLS listing, it has also been mentioned that the house had some fire damage.

    I read some online artiles about buying foreclosure. I will definitely read more. Does anyone have a good website to recommend?

    Thanks again.

  278. Sean says:

    The bonuses to AIG should not have been paid period. However the numbers Congress is using are arbitrary, banks must have received 5 Billion in TARP? Why not include all TARP recipients?

    How is it that Cuomo is playing harder for the American people with AIG and Merrill bonuses than the president and his team are? Where is the useless US Attorney General Eric Holder?

    Geithner is turning into a political disaster for O’bama. The longer he sticks around the worse things will get, he is now tossing himself and Dodd under the bus, over these bonuses.

    Starting a class war is also not going to fix the economy, besides smart people will always find ways to avoid paying increased taxes.

  279. skep-tic says:

    #222

    B) the excess of–

    (i) the adjusted gross income of the taxpayer for such taxable year, over

    (ii) $250,000 ($125,000 in the case of a married individual filing a separate return).
    *******************

    the top people at these companies will all quit. maybe this is the idea, but if this happens there will be chaos

  280. make money says:

    Starting a class war is also not going to fix the economy, besides smart people will always find ways to avoid paying increased taxes!

    A one million dollar bonus recipient at AIG in 2008 will be a 10 million bonus recepient in 2009!!

    After 90% taxes then he gets to keep a cool million. he’s better now then when he started.

    AIG will ask for another 35 Billion in a couple of months cause it ran out of cash.

    These people make money cause they’re smart and not cause they’re inherited it.

  281. poor guy says:

    let them all quit. Ubs and deutche are full of vacancies last time I heard. Perhaps it would be better for them if their company was nationalized or go bankrupt.

  282. Sastry says:

    We need Spitzer!

    S

  283. HEHEHE says:

    Goldman/AIG

    Call in with your questions for Goldman’s CFO

    http://dealbreaker.com/2009/03/were-just-misunderstood-thats.php

  284. Shore Guy says:

    “genital waxing.”

    This sounds like something Bush ordered at Guantanamo. “speak up son or we’ll wax your…. and then rip off the hair with one tug.”

  285. House Whine says:

    #287
    I do agree with some of your points, especially about the difference in cost of living discrepancies. But makes you think that my 401k hasn’t also been demolished? I had plenty in it not necessarily because I was a high income earner but because I was saving money in it since I was 23 yrs. old. Really, I feel like I have been duped and sold a bill of goods – perhaps I should have just had a grand old time and spent the money I was socking away all these years in my 401k. So, yes I do understand the pain of losing my retirement funds.

  286. confused in nj says:

    Dodd, Frank, Geitner, Bernanke, Obama, etc., all incompetent government officials, let’s find out who their Teachers were and revoke their Pensions for incompetence.

  287. bi says:

    anybody here will be affected by this new bill? for the record, i am not so far.

    Everytime congress takes action, market starts to move down. you can bet on it.

  288. zieba says:

    Seneca,

    I love the broad brush with which you defined the ignorant masses. So let me understand your argument better; It’s okay to take the CEO’s pay and it’s okay for the 65K crowd to take 20% pay cuts but it’s not ok to ask the same of the overpaid paper pushers lest they tumble back into five figure obscurity.

    Is this a fair assesment of your position?

  289. Sastry says:

    Nom #273… No problem at all. Anyway, the ramblings are more out of a sense that there is large scale injustice (probably always was, and always will be).

    Make Money #291…
    “These people make money cause they’re smart and not cause they’re inherited it.”…
    Sounds find in theory, but these smart people are not accountable when they make catastrophic losses. And they are pulling in large bailout money by blackmailing and using secret political connections. How can that be justified?

    Don’t get me wrong, there were times I wanted to try to become a quant or a quant developer [secretly, I am at times jealous of quants]… But, the sense I had was that one would use the math to make money [for the firm], and one’s head is on the chopping block if one loses money. However, the current trend seems to be, “Heads, GS wins. Tails, public loses and GS wins.”

    We all appreciate athletes and are jealous of their skills and lifestyle. But, if we find out that the sport is rigged, we sure feel very disappointed.

    S

  290. Sastry says:

    Seneca: .
    “There is a big difference between the exec who got a $6 million bonus and has $10 million already in his savings vs. the exec who got a $20k bonus and whose $500,000 in 401k money is now down to $250k.”

    All other things being equal, the savings should not factor into the equation at all. With respect to an exec not getting the 20k “bonus”, if I were in a falling company and my bonuses were cut, I’d not complain that much. I have taken big pay cuts [20% and then another 20%] in a start up in the past.

    Am I wrong in thinking that similar rules should be applicable [I know that bonus in financial companies means completely different than bonus in a startup].

    S

  291. Jim says:

    We stayed at the Disney All Star Resorts before as well as a couple of the other places they have. The All Star Resorts were great- good price and you don’t have to worry about driving in to the park in the morning. You also get into one park a day earlier than people who don’t stay at Disney.

  292. safeashouses says:

    #148 nom

    What’s amazing is that organic apples, pears and other fruits are half the price by pound of most mass market cookies and other snack foods.

    Can’t afford fruit cause I’m eating a pack of cookies a day syndrome.

  293. comrade nom deplume says:

    [292] poor guy,

    That is likely already happening. Deutsche has already been raiding TARP banks, and that raiding will accelerate. The folks that leave AIG will go down the street and trade against their old desk, and collect healthy bonuses. Whoever is left at AIG will have little to do but turn out the lights.

    Unless Congress wants AIG to wind down in orderly fashion, in which case Congress will quietly approve new “retention” bonuses that are considerably larger now that they have to include gross-ups, and will be memorialized in the most inviolate, well-drafted employment contracts ever seen.

  294. poor guy says:

    “These people make money cause they’re smart and not cause they’re inherited it.”

    you must be kidding. they make money cause that’s the only thing they think about

  295. Seneca says:

    Whine [295]

    I am not suggesting your 401k hasn’t been demolished, nor that you haven’t been sold a bill of goods. I bought the same one you did. Didn’t mean to suggest that only six-figure income earners have seen their retirement funds eviscerated. I know first-hand it is an issue for the non-pensioned masses.

    zieba [298]
    >>I love the broad brush with which you defined the ignorant masses.

    Thanks, I borrow my art supplies from the IRS.

    I don’t agree with your assessment of my position. I don’t think the “bonus” tax bill is going to fairly penalize the people who created the mess but since this whole pursuit of bonus money is a smoke screen to cover up the fact that AIG was used as a conduit to save Goldman, UBS, Deutsche etc. (but mostly Goldman) it doesn’t really matter. The rich will stay rich, the poor will remain poor and the middle class will break their backs to pay for it all.

    Sastry [300]
    Don’t disagree with you at all that savings need not factor in to the equation. My beef is with this definition of rich in the government’s eyes. Its the $250k HH income number that I protest. Take the bonuses away from everyone. But let’s not give any credence to this bogus $250k number anymore.

    Instead I propose we ask people if they “feel” rich. If you are happy, well-adjusted, your kids aren’t on drugs, your husband is funny and sensitive and you “feel” rich, then you get no bonus this year.

    If you are a miserable schlep with no social life, your mother describes you as her least favorite child and your drug dealer doesn’t even want to be around you anymore but you have $10 million in the bank, YOU get to keep your bonus.

    How does that work for everyone?

  296. skep-tic says:

    there is a difference between going after people who are culpable and just blanketly f’g over thousands of individuals who are doing their jobs as they are supposed to who happen to be well paid (and many who are not even that well paid by NYC standards).

    if congress were to pull the plug on failed businesses that would take balls. this does not. they have enlarged their personal fiefdom by owning these businesses and now they just want to make people dance.

    It is pointless. the decision makers will just quit because they either have other options or are already rich and don’t need to deal with this. no one who knows what they are doing will step into their place.

  297. poor guy says:

    #304

    now I am really scared.

    I say let the AIG go down because deutsche might be better with american savings

  298. skep-tic says:

    Laurence Tribe (Harvard) argues in the Atlantic and Wall Street Journal Law Blog that the proposed 90% tax on the bonuses paid out by AIG would pass constitutional muster under the Bills of Attainder and Ex Post Facto clauses Article I, Section 9; the Contract Clause of the Article I, Section 10; the Due Process Clause of the Fifth Amendment; and the Takings Clause of the Fifth Amendment.

    http://taxprof.typepad.com/taxprof_blog/2009/03/larry-tribe-.html

    on deck for the Supremes. we are so close to utopia right now you can taste it.

  299. Clotpoll says:

    Sean (247)-

    Yet another way NJ is becoming like France.

    Also makes me glad I’m married and out of the dating scene. A guy can get surprised in a lot of different ways these days.

  300. sas says:

    “end of days”

    if that happens by China & Russia, you bet your sweet little ass its end of days.

    SAS

  301. Clotpoll says:

    cli (288)-

    The property is not foreclosed until the auction occurs. In NJ, the property can also be redeemed, post-auction.

    If you like your money, do not get near this auction with the intention of bidding. You are not ready.

    Perhaps you go, and take note of the bank it goes back to. Which it has a 95% chance of doing. You may be able to approach the bank with an offer, which is a lot easier than bidding at a sheriff sale.

    I don’t know of any websites or courses that present a soup-to-nuts course in buying foreclosures. There should be, but it’s a very arcane and weird sort of process.

  302. chicagofinance says:

    Not quite the seed vault, but if you are interested, please let me know…..

    On April 6, 2009 Ocean County College will be presenting “The Economic Recovery Summit”, a panel discussion about today’s economic reality and alternative solutions. The half day program is being co-hosted by MODC and New Jersey Business and Industry Association . A number of federal and state legislators and officials have already confirmed their participation in our program. A detailed event invitation will be sent out to you shortly. In the meantime, please use the attached save-the-date card to mark your calendar and make your reservation to join us.

  303. Clotpoll says:

    There are some RE investment clubs in NJ that discuss foreclosure purchasing as part of their regular meeting topics.

    Google and find one near you. Go. If the materials and discussions make sense, keep going. You will learn good stuff at all but the worst clubs.

  304. victorian says:

    Maybe I am just incredibly dumb/naive, but I thought a “bonus” was meant to reward a job well done. I guess losing sh1t loads of money is called a job well done nowadays.

  305. sas says:

    its like this

    AIG = dishonest weights & measures

    SAS

  306. skep-tic says:

    this bill is not limited to bonuses. it taxes AGI above $250k (or above $125k if single) at 90%.

    Again, I am sympathetic to the argument that some of these entities would not be in business but for the gov’t. If this sort of thing is the paramount concern, then pull the plug. but keeping them in business while not running them like a business is frightening in its stupidity

  307. comrade nom deplume says:

    Came across this goldbug site, and they predicted in January that, in 2009, AIG would fail “swiftly and suddenly.”

    http://www.gold101.com/blog/2009/01/this-is-true-it-will-happen-extending-a-lifeline-to-you-now/

    [309] skep,

    Not surprised Tribe thinks that way (he mixes the koolaid after all), but it should make for a good read.

    My fear is not so much the Congress; now state legislatures are going to be passing borderline bills of attainder and confiscatory measures. Good times for lawyers, not so much for everyone else.

  308. poor guy says:

    #317

    this or put them under fed payroll. all prefer the fed payroll from deutsche, ubs ect even the greediest

  309. Clotpoll says:

    I say we’re looking at the wrong problem.

    It’s the gubmint that needs to be shut down.

  310. comrade nom deplume says:

    [309] skep

    HT for the link. I have already seen some of the linked stories. I never thought that I could out-argue Tribe on Con Law (tho I disagree strongly with his particular bent), but after reading what I think he said, and considering that the Congressional Record in this instance is quite damning, I think that Tribe’s groveling so he can be named to SCOTUS will come back to haunt him.

  311. comrade nom deplume says:

    [315] vic

    The Devil is in the details. When the record comes out fully, we may find that these guys are truly louts, or something to the contrary.

    My profession doesn’t allow me the luxury of pronouncing guilt without trial. Though if the courts follow the lead of Congress, trials will be won by those that can rile the masses quicker.

  312. sas says:

    “It’s the gubmint that needs to be shut down”

    you mean shut down traders in London and New York, banks who are laundering the profits from shipping in drugs and sell them in your neighborhoods, and then make silly drug laws to arrest people to funnel them back into prisons they own (along with Wall St. friends).???

    nah.. we don’t wanna do that.
    stock market will crash and no more 401k for you.

    best we just goto work and run around on that wheel.

    I love you omama.
    SAS

  313. Shore Guy says:

    Grim,

    Maybe you can find the report (I am on the road and unable to do so) a friend just told me about. Apparently the NY Banking board released a report that showed a huge spike in bad loans in Upstate NY. He said the report shows an increase in foreclosures of over 700% from Sept 07 until Sept 08 in one of the Upstate SMSAs. 700% in one bloody year. It looks like Las Vegas/California is on its way to a SMSA near us.

  314. House Whine says:

    #315
    Agreed, I thought so too. Moreover, bonuses usually go to (1) the high-performers and (2) ONLY if the company is actually solvent. Usually the bigger the profit that year, the bigger the pool of bonuses. Maybe I live in a different world though.

  315. Kettle1 says:

    Clot,

    BINGO!

    Nom:

    Mob rule is already established at this point and the politicians and power brokers know how to play the mob like a god damn Stradivarius.

  316. Kettle1 says:

    did i mention that being stuck in the airport really sucks?

  317. Dr Yes says:

    Hello

    I’m a newbie and have a question, so forgive me if it is naive.

    Is it legitimate for a seller to offer to hand you cash as part of a purchase? you pay 1000 for the house and they hand you 100 back?

    Thank you

  318. Stu says:

    A few years ago I shared the story of a close friend of my dad who happened to be the CEO of a mortgage brokerage that went bankrupt in mid 2007. After hearing on the news how they had gone belly up, my father called his friend to see how he was doing. The CEO responded I made so much money in the last few years that I will never have to think about working another day in my life nor will many others here.

    This is an example of someone who knowingly knew the system was going to collapse, but profited wildly and immorally from it.

    We are all focusing on AIG and other semi nationalized financial firms, but the real focus needs to be directed at the gross behavior shared by so many of these so-called smart people.

    Wall Street has this mystique that they have been selling to the sheeple that they deserve to be paid exorbitantly since they are the only ones smart enough to perform financial alchemy. Well we have all witnessed their skills first hand.

    Who the F cares if they do or don’t get their bonuses? Next year, they will simply move what would have been a bonus into their base. And still, no one answered why it was acceptable for me to take a 10% pay cut and my wife to have her pension frozen, but a contract that reveals a bonus to a Wall Streeter for some unknown reason is sacred.

    The argument that smart people won’t work there if you don’t pay them excessively? Well good. It is these smart people who will be found responsible for the destruction of our country.

    I agree that to punish those not responsible is terrible policy, but if the greedy bastards won’t police themselves, then it is up to the people to ensure these jerks are not eating to much of the pie. A better solution needs to be found, but the theory is sound IMO.

    I’ve said it before, the real cause of the upcoming depression will be attributed to the growing difference between the haves and the have nots. Capitalism is flawed in that those at the top can easily stay there as money talks. Those at the bottom have no chance in hell to move up.

    I say it’s high time to close the financial alchemists fraternity down. Of course this will never happen though. Our government is filled with alumnus and the others are all bought.

    But lets keep rewarding these jerks!

  319. poor guy says:

    if you close the government you need to stop posting here for a while–not sure you are willing to do that

  320. Sastry says:

    #317… Are you sure it is 90% tax on all AGI? I thought it was only for bonuses, and that too, only for people making over $250k. Of course, there is a salary cap, so basically someone making $20M at a TARP company that took $5B+ will get f’ed badly no matter what.

  321. Sastry says:

    Clot… and cli (288)…

    I read a post on a blog about auctions and one of the poster was curious about what “second leins” mean, and he wanted to know how to bid at an auction.

    The advice people gave there was “take a lot of vaseline so that it won’t hurt much!”.

    S

  322. Kettle1 says:

    poor man?

    me? I am just a highschool janitor who read to many text books. the only thing i am going to start is polishing the cafeteria floor.

  323. Kettle1 says:

    Americans Getting Jobless Benefits Reach 5.5 Million

    The number of Americans collecting jobless benefits swelled to a record 5.47 million, indicating that former employees are unable to find new work as companies continue to cut costs. The number of people staying on benefit rolls jumped by 185,000 in the week ended March 7, the Labor Department said today in Washington. Initial jobless applications last week topped 600,000 for a seventh straight time, the worst performance since 1982

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aCHrceevpSbs&refer=news

  324. skep-tic says:

    “Are you sure it is 90% tax on all AGI? I thought it was only for bonuses,”

    the version I have read is that it is a 90% tax on the excess above the lower of (i) AGI above $250k (or $125k for single filers) or (ii) bonus above $250k (or $125k for single filers).

    Not 100% clear to me how “bonus” is defined, but it doesn’t really matter if (i) is in fact included.

    Again, I agree with the concept that “bonus” is supposed to be extra and paid only when there is profit that you helped to generate.

    The problem of course is that these firms are massive and there are still lots of people who are making money for the firm. Is it fair or smart to crush them along with the incompetant and possibly criminal people?

    Another problem is that if this is written as I think it is, the gov’t is effectively trying to cap compensation in a huge sector of the economy. It may feel good to go after Wall St now, but who is next? Why not just tax all income of everyone above $125k at 90%?

    It all seems pretty reckless to me.

  325. Kettle1 says:

    should be interesting to see if anyone gets smacked around by some angry sheep.

    Bank of America ordered to reveal Merrill Lynch employees’ bonus details

    Bank of America will have to disclose the identities of Merrill Lynch employees who received $3.6bn in bonuses late last year after a ruling by a state judge on Wednesday in an investigation brought by Andrew Cuomo, New York’s attorney-general.

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/fd203800-1410-11de-9e32-0000779fd2ac.html

  326. chicagofinance says:

    Victorian says:
    March 19, 2009 at 4:32 pm
    Chi (248) – Good points. However, I would like to debate further, if you don’t mind.
    If that is true, then they knew that AIG was in some deep sh1t. Why would they choose to buy CDS from them taking into account counterparty risk?

    Vic: CDS was put in place years ago. Bets against AIG going into the sh!tter were put in place late-2007 to 2008. BC Bob knew enough to say as much. Why wouldn’t GS know.

    NOTE: I am not arguing it is the case. I am positing that we have no fcuking clue and it is a joke that people are getting angry.

    People are just pissed and want to vent. Anything that can be opportunistically turned for political benefit is fair game.

    As an example, a client of mine was responsible for generating $100M+ of business for his book. He is in M&A. No fcuk-ups, just straight coin into the vault. Just because his employer took TARP means that 52 weeks of 80+ hour weeks in 2008 should be rammed up his ass? The taxpayer has money in the TARP banks. You don’t want to degrade your assets if you are a stakeholder.

  327. Kettle1 says:

    Clot, skeptic, make,

    The only reasonable solution is to bring criminal charges against those at the center of the mess. Unfortunately that would necessitate the prosecution of some high level politicians and the spoiling of some very lucrative back channels into the US government.

  328. Outofstater says:

    Add $5 billion to the debt – auto suppliers.
    http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE52I53520090319

  329. poor guy says:

    #336

    your client should go to deutsche then.

  330. sas says:

    “The only reasonable solution is to bring criminal charges against those at the center of the mess”

    how about, lets remove economics by force and fraud and return to productivity??

    I love Omama, he is bringing “change”
    SAS

  331. sas says:

    best after tax yield.. food.

    just a thought

    SAS

  332. Kettle1 says:

    Add this to the archive to be revisited in 2010.

    Britain will be only nation still in recession next year – IMF

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/britain-will-be-only-nation-still-in-recession-next-year-1647356.html

  333. sas says:

    “Add this to the archive to be revisited in 2010″

    goodie, can I add this too?

    “Obama seeks patience, says economy will recover”
    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/obama

    I love omama.
    like my cute little button and bumper sticker says “omama for change”

    awww..
    no more white guilt.
    SAS

  334. Kettle1 says:

    You got to love that this blog can predict the economy better then the IMF!!!!

    We all need bonuses!

  335. Shore Guy says:

    “I love Omama, he is bringing “change””

    Indeed he is. Right before my eyes I see my dollars being turned into smal change.

  336. Kettle1 says:

    shore,

    you also see the last vestiges of a republic being removed, freeing the way for the tyranny of the masses.

    Which the Politicos and bankers will profits handsomely from

  337. Shore Guy says:

    “should be interesting to see if anyone gets smacked around by some angry sheep.”

    The internet makes it very, very hard to hide. I suspect that many of the people who received those bonuses would much prefer to have not received one and remained unknown than to have the cash and be a target of some people’s extra-legal rage. Even a million dollars only buys so much security when one has a house, self, spouse, and kids to protect every hour of every day. Unfortunately, there are some nutjobs out there who may make it necessary for the recipiants of those bonuses to spend much of the cash to protect themselves.

  338. borat obama says:

    last

  339. Shore Guy says:

    That whole waxing thing sounds like a technique for extracting information from someone in out little compound in Cuba. I am not sure, though, if it would come before or after waterboarding.

  340. Shore Guy says:

    “you also see the last vestiges of a republic being removed”

    A democracy is hard work, and requires an active citizenry. When a greater precentage of the popolation can name American Idol contestants than their own Congressional Representative, or U.S. Senators, or Vice President — for goodness sake — or even two members of the SCOTUS, we should be surprised to find the republic in danger?

  341. Cindy says:

    http://macro-man.blogspot.com/2009/03/big-day.html

    If you go to the end of this guy’s post..he says “So to put things right, he has a compromise, market-based solution. Don’t seize bonuses via a one-off excise tax. Instead, pay them in the amounts contractually-mandated, and use normal tax treatment. But pay them in stock, and allocate shares on the basis of the average AIG share price in 2008: $27.57.

    So someone receiving a million-dollar bonus will receive 32,269 shares of AIG. Current market value: $34,818. This should appease the baying masses and also introduce an incentive to these valuable employees to right the ship as quickly and successfully as possible. Oh, and at the same time, introduce these guys to another concept well-known to hedge fund types: the high water mark.

    If and when AIG were ever to surpass the high water mark of the stock allocation price, that would be a very big day indeed, for both the employees and the taxpayer.”

    Someone points out in the comments section:

    Concerning the tax consequences, it would trigger capital losses only AFTER the value of the stock was reported as income at the price of $27.00. Also, the income received would be taxed as ordinary income in the year of the receipt. When sold, if no gains to offset would be limited to a deduction of 3000 a year. People would beg not to get their toxic bonus. Great idea.

    Now, I’m not going to pretend that I understand the whole thing, but the paying them in stock idea didn’t sound that bad.

  342. Kettle1 says:

    shore,

    the democracy per se still exists. the democratic republic is dead.

  343. Kettle1 says:

    found this amusing:

    FED: Collateral for TALF Expanded

    * DIRTNEWS: The Fed announced today that TALF collateral has been expanded to include bags of dog squeeze, used condoms and plasma.

    ** ADDENDUM: Fed considering accepting barf from pubs; determining the viability of collection devices in bar restrooms.

  344. skep-tic says:

    with respect, all this “end of democracy/republic” is overblown.

    the problem here is that politicians are not equipped to run businesses because their interest is in getting elected, not making a profit for the business.

    it should be obvious by now that government ownership of any large business is not a solution.

    what needs to happen is what paulson said about 18 months ago and bernanke continues to say now: congress needs to craft a statutory process to wind down this firms in an orderly manner.

  345. skep-tic says:

    no more ad hoc, lay out all of the rules for all current disasters and all ones that have yet to emerge. perhaps it can simply be an amended bankruptcy code.

  346. jamil says:

    Now I remember why I hate brokers: “Bait and switch”. Nice pics in craigslist but no real location info. “Prime UWS location!!” turns out be in Harlem. Heck, I wasted time but so did the moron broker.

    Anyway, rental market in Manhattan is collapsing and I can’t even imagine what it is like in 6 months once all the new buildings are up.

    I went to see nice apartment with great views in prime location. Previous renter had lost his WS job and broke his lease. Apt is on the market at 15% lower rent.

    Now this is a change I can believe in. Still looking..Too many good deals.
    Even my current landlord called again and offered improved deal. It seems that I can get 1-month free and 15% off if I sign a new lease.

  347. Kettle1 says:

    Take a look

    http://govbudget.com/front/?p=spending

    Now ask yourself the question: what happens as entitlement programs expand, tax receipts drop and the value of the US dollar drops therefore driving up borrowing costs and increasing our interest payments?

  348. Victorian says:

    “what needs to happen is what paulson said about 18 months ago”

    Link? IIRC, Paulson and Bernanke were saying that subprime was contained during that time period.

  349. Seneca says:

    Those of you into bulk purchases of shiny stuff, where the hell are you gonna keep it? What does one of those monster boxes weigh? 30, 40 lbs?

    Lots of you are talking about buying up all you can but it ain’t gonna fit in your safe deposit box and most wall safes aren’t gonna hold too much coin. So what. You just toss it on the book shelf between Quotations from Chairman Mao and the Betty Crocker Cookbook?

    Don’t tell me where you live but I am really curious with all the gold talk on here what the hell everyone is doing to keep it safe from the cable guy.

  350. Stu says:

    I’m planning on a half/half split between miners and Bullion Vault.

  351. sas says:

    “what happens as entitlement programs expand, tax receipts drop and the value of the US dollar drops therefore driving up borrowing costs and increasing our interest payments?”

    what happens is you get a white glove penetration, while you cross your eyes.

    SAS

  352. sas says:

    “rental market in Manhattan is collapsing and I can’t even imagine what it is like in 6 months once all the new buildings are up”

    yes. I agree with you.

    Many new building right on target to flood the market.

    SAS

  353. Cindy says:

    http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2009/03/galbraith-no-return-to-normal.html

    Paul O’Neill – a good listen – 8 minutes

    He wants transparency – Don’t waste our money!

  354. Sastry says:

    Seneca #361…

    One can keep the gold in the form of golden toilets in McMansions :), and put a “home for sale” sign in the front. No one will suspect.

    BTW, any doomsdayers thinking about buying submarines?

    S

  355. Victorian says:

    Chi -
    “Why wouldn’t GS know.”

    Exactly my point. If they knew, why did they buy CDS from AIG? Obviously, they knew that the govt had their back.
    So, from my point of view, if they were shorting AIG, they won big time. (Stock Price ~ 0). Plus they get 100% on their hedged bets.

    Why was the govt obligated to pay off these bets? CDS are not even a regulated entity. The only systemically important about AIG was the insurance business, and they should have let that part survive and let the rest go to hell.

  356. #360 – It may have not been 18 months ago, but both started to make statements along those lines after Bear.
    To be honest I don’t think anyone has a clear idea of how to “wind down” a large IB so asking Congress to develop guidelines may have been

  357. …develop guidelines may have been p-ing into the wind.

    Cut myself off there.

  358. Victorian says:

    “it should be obvious by now that government ownership of any large business is not a solution. ”

    AFAIK, none of the management at any of the TARP companies have been fired. Obviously, govt is not running these businesses. All this brouhaha over people not getting bonuses for losing money.

    Boo-fcukin-hoo. I thought capitalism was supposed to punish failures and reward success.

    Quit the firm. I am sure LEH and BSC will be happy to hire you.

  359. Kettle1 says:

    Vic

    I agree with you, but the part i think you are missing is that TPTB were nit willing to suffer the consequences of allowing one of the bug boys to go down.

    Any one of the bug boys going down has a high probability of causing a systemic collapse of the global finance model and well as the finance system itself.

    things gt very ugly when everyone knows nothing but fiat money and the money machine suddenly grinds to a halt and the ATM stops spitting out “money”, at least the kind that would buy you food or shelter.

    Also consider that the modern empires and dynasties are built on the global finance model. If the model is allowed to fail then the great empires and dynasties of the 2oth century are likely to fall as well.

    I agree with clot and believe that this must happen before we see the light again, however TPTB will fight it to their last breathe

    You must remember that the financial masters of the universe have far more to lose then joe blow and therefore see the allowed failure of their model as unthinkable while its common sense to us plebs

  360. Frank says:

    Does anyone think that the bonus tax will bring down Manhattan property values down 70%? I think it’s a nail in coffin for RE around NYC.

  361. Steve says:

    There’s the mark to market that shows the 66% haircut in the value of that AIG building.

    Hard Place (203),

    Exactly.

    Pretty consistent – and the trend is clear. And, terrifying. Especially if you’re…..a BANK

  362. Seneca says:

    Sas(try) [366]

    That ain’t a bad idea, gold toilets.

    Speaking of toilets, I have another way to decide whose bonus has to go back and who gets to keep their bonus.

    If your house has more bathrooms than bedrooms, give the bonus back.

    Looking at a 6 bedroom, 6.5 bath place in Summit. What the f*ck!

    Makes more sense to me now, however, knowing that people need the bathrooms for safe storage of their gold via precious metal commodes.

    Didn’t Hackman turn gold into pipes in Heist? Good Mamet flick.

    “Everybody needs money. That’s why they call it money.”

  363. Kettle1 says:

    can i get an address? thank you!

    MLS ID #2512528

  364. still_looking says:

    Sastry 366

    BTW, any doomsdayers thinking about buying submarines?

    I dunno cold cuts don’t store too well…as for tuna and eggsalad… even worse…

    sl

  365. Kettle1 says:

    SL

    how goes the butcher shop? heard from some nurse friends that things are getting a little uglier in the field lately.

  366. zieba says:

    RE: 377

    (drumroll, hihat, crash.)

  367. Steve says:

    The best part will be when Bagholder figures out the other firm’s rent and withholds their rent until the LL gives them the same $50/ft deal.

    Clot (209/210),

    Yeah, it ain’t gonna be pretty. In this case, the first hedge fund is subletting to the second, so that particular bagholder is very aware of the differential.

    However, all the neighboring bagholders, not so much. That is, until they start chatting in the elevator.

    Maybe he could arrange a little “hush money” from the LL, on the side…. lol

  368. Stu says:

    Went to get my head buzzed with junior at 5pm today. My barber said we were his first customers since 1pm. He said his regulars are going to look like hippies by the time they stumble in.

    Also noticed that my homeowners insurance is increasing their rates by 5.7%. What’s new?

  369. 3b says:

    #290 skeptic:the top people at these companies will all quit.

    And where will they all go.

  370. still_looking says:

    ket 378

    I see about 30% “self pay” “charity care” or Medicaid.

    Most can’t even get follow up. They can’t go back to their previous primary care physician as they owe them money and are refused visits…

    Seeing a lot of depressed and anxious.

    Less suicide attempts but the ones that I do see are increasingly lethal. Last one was a Tylenol overdose that may end up needing a new liver.

    It’s stressful. As bad as it is, I still get to leave when my work is done. I always have a good outlook especially after the soul macerating stuff I see at work.

    Regardless of the critics, I really dig this blog.

    sl

  371. still_looking says:

    z 379

    uh. thanks! I needed that!

    sl

  372. Steve says:

    Jamil,

    Go for blood. 15%? Try doubling that…and keep going from condo to condo, or apt to apt, until someone bites. I say condos too since there are lots of stuck flippers, and they’ll pay broker fees.

    My friend in from UK did just that- in Oct, and got a great deal…now it’s much, much uglier–

  373. sas says:

    “City’s Public Health System To Cut 400 Jobs”
    http://tinyurl.com/carx72

  374. still_looking says:

    I know I am gonna be beaten for this one.

    I do follow the information here for some guidance in investing. I have made money.

    Enough money to offset the near complete loss of my investment in a REIT (CT) and then some.

    Does the amount matter?

    I’m not ashamed to discuss it. That was the “dog” in my long portfolio and I finally put the cur down.

    My accountant is honest and I don’t expect to get away without a heap of taxes on those capital gains. Yes, I did make a lot.

    The advice I have gleaned from here has helped me actuallycurb my behavior. I follow tight stops, take smaller profits and understand that much of this is luck, too. I recognize that it is probably gambling.

    Oddly enough, my long portfolio was not gambling and while is not the loss that CT was, still looks like a trauma bay after a bad stabbing.

    Go ahead, flame away… you know you want to.

    sl

  375. jamil says:

    Steve: Yeah..I’m doing that right now. I almost signed a lease last week, but better deals seem to emerge every day (and by waiting, the management companies seem to be even more willing to lower the rent).

    Granted, it is mainly ~15-20% off from last year rents in rental buildings. Some apartments get rented at that level. I did not loose sleep over those apartments, though.

    I checked couple of condos through brokers. They are probably better deals but I’m a bit hesitant becoming a renter for private owner (you never know what sort of a$$hole the LL is). I prefer management companies.

    My current apartment might be potential 25-30% off. LL seem to be extremely eager to get me to sign and willing to negotiate. Also, they would save renovation costs and possible broker fees if I stay.

    Once I have decided, I’ll ask the other 2-3 finalists to submit competing bids within few hours – otherwise I sign the lease.

  376. Kettle1 says:

    can we get a bill in the senate to tax SL at 90%?

  377. BC Bob says:

    “Those of you into bulk purchases of shiny stuff, where the hell are you gonna keep it?”

    Seneca [361],

    Right at my fingertips.

    Quotes from Mao? Betty Crocker? No, it’s not that difficult. How about good faith and credit?

    “To provide greater support to mortgage lending and housing markets, the Committee decided today to increase the size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet further by purchasing up to an additional $750 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities, bringing its total purchases of these securities to up to $1.25 trillion this year, and to increase its purchases of agency debt this year by up to $100 billion to a total of up to $200 billion. Moreover, to help improve conditions in private credit markets, the Committee decided to purchase up to $300 billion of longer-term Treasury securities over the next six months.”

    Mao is a capitalist compared to this bashing of our dollar.

    Back to the beach.

  378. Cindy says:

    http://www.businessinsider.com/the-dirty-dozen-12-firms-hit-by-90-bonus-tax-2009-3

    According to this article, only 12 firms would be hit with the tax.

    The Dirty Dozen

  379. Cindy says:

    Hi BC – How ya been?… Busy or on vacation?

  380. Cindy says:

    http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Goldman-detail-AIG-trading-relationship/story.aspx?guid={83E134BA-A983-451F-B6A7-FF4D005EEECF}

    Goldman says they will gives details to the press about their trading relationship with AIG via a conference call tomorrow.

  381. 3b says:

    #390 BC Bob: Welcome back.At least for tonight.

  382. ParTee RT says:

    I am a long time lurker. Maybe commented once in last 3 yrs. I am not expert on precio0s metals, but more familiar with them than the average joe.
    Someone asked about bulk purchases of silver. 1000 ounces(TO)of silver is not a bulk purchase. Maybe a couple of 100 thousand TO is a bulk purchase. The NYMEX used to trade bags of silver coins(’64 and older). I don’t think they still do (volume too low). But a $1000 face value of coins(’64 & older)(coin silver ~90%Ag-bal Cu)is 715 TO silver. From ’64 to ’68 there is less Ag. Maybe 35% I don’t know exactly. After’68, no silver.

  383. jamil says:

    Cindy:
    “According to this article, only 12 firms would be hit with the tax.”

    Surprising to find out that Fannie Mae is not in the list /sarc

    It pays to “Friends of Dodd”.

  384. Cindy says:

    (396) Jamil

    Actually, it says: “In addition, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would be subject to the new tax.”

  385. jamil says:

    Cindy: No it would not (only future bonuses – the current Fannie Mae ones would be safe)

  386. Victorian says:

    From Cindy’s link
    * Citigroup (New York)
    * JPMorgan Chase (New York)
    * Wells Fargo & Co. (San Francisco)
    * Bank of America Corp. (Charlotte, N.C.)
    * Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (New York)
    * Merrill Lynch & Co. (New York)
    * Morgan Stanley (New York)
    * PNC Financial Services Group Inc. (Pittsburgh)
    * US Bancorp (Minneapolis)
    * AIG (New York)
    * General Motors (Detroit)
    * GMAC Financial Service (New York)

    In addition, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would be subject to the new tax.

  387. BC Bob says:

    Cindy [392],

    Both.

  388. bi says:

    Senator Judd Gregg, a New Hampshire Republican, predicted Congress’s efforts to rescind the bonuses through higher taxes would be thrown out in court. He said the legislation violates the constitutional ban on bills of attainder, which restricts lawmakers’ ability to punish individual Americans.

    “It’s basically targeted on a small group of people,” Gregg said. He also said the bill may exceed lawmakers’ power to rewrite existing contracts. He said “of course” the government ought to try to rescind the bonuses “but we’ve got to do it legally.”

    Some academics said the legislation may survive a court challenge. “From what I’ve seen, it would pass constitutional muster,” said Alexander Tsesis, an assistant professor of law at Loyola University in Chicago

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=abB3un2F_9jY&refer=home

  389. jamil says:

    at least originally it had the dates defined so that Fannie Mae bonuses were excluded. Second thought, maybe that was in the bailout bill itself (ie it was tailored to allow Fannie Mae bonuses, in addition to AIG).

  390. Kettle1 says:

    hurray getting on plane finally!!!!

  391. Cindy says:

    My favorite thing I posted tonight was the O’Neill piece.

    I loved that he basically said, “Why does the American taxpayer have to buy toxic assets when no one in their right mind will touch them with a ten foot pole.” “Don’t waste our money.”

    We need a credible fix for the financial system. That’s what I care about just now.

  392. bi says:

    this bill is a joke. saying you are working for one of these banks and making 100K and your spouse are working for another not-tarp-funded firm making 200K. it will take 50K from your family. this is america?

  393. Cindy says:

    (400) BC – “Both”

    Well, we miss you!

    But have fun.

  394. BC Bob says:

    vic[399],

    The truly talented with serious mental deficiencies. However, they knew how to create products that could be sold. God Bless them. Allow them to keep their bonuses, continue creating enormous opportunities.

    Why is everybody up in arms regarding bonuses? Just a smoke screen to divert your attention. The real culprits, our elected officials who sold their soul to the lobbyists.

    Same as it ever was.

  395. BC Bob says:

    “this is america?”

    Bi,

    This is squat. Wait until you see what’s coming down the pike. Buckle up!

  396. Cindy says:

    (407) BC – “The real culprits…” You ain’t kiddin. When is their next recess?
    AND how long can we make it last?

  397. jamil says:

    bi 405: I won’t be impacted this time (of course, eventually this would extend to profitable companies too – see AMT).

    Anyway, I’m enjoying this (illegal) populist class warfare. Most of those hit are hard-core O supporters. Enjoy the Change and 90% taxrate!

  398. Victorian says:

    “Just a smoke screen to divert your attention”

    Exactly! AIG is just a conduit to funnel more money to the banks.

  399. Victorian says:

    bi (405) -

    A 50K bonus on a 100K salary. Nice! Can you tell me which company is this, so that we can short the sh1t out of it?

  400. jamil says:

    412 vic: I don’t think bi claimed 50k bonus on 100k income.

  401. jamil says:

    nice cartoon about the bonus bill:
    http://www.investors.com/editorial/cartoon.asp

  402. John says:

    Need some advice. My wife is a teacher and has a 403b account with AIG. I pulled her money out of the stock funds in mid 2007, so she hasn’t lost anything. Problem is the stable funds are all AIG paper, from what I can tell. So my options are stocks, bonds or AIG. No treasuries or anything truly safe, whatever that means anymore.

    Any advice on how to protect what she has there?

  403. bi says:

    412#, this is just a simplified exmple. to me this is very unfair to a group of people. for example, some comanies such JP Morgan did not seek tarp money in the first place but now they are subjected to the same penalty.

  404. bi says:

    412#, for your info. acctually if you are at higher level in one of these wall street firms, most of your total comp comes from bonus. for example, if you are a MD, your base may be around 200K but your bonus could be a few millions depending how much money you can bring to the firm.

  405. jamil says:

    I guess WS increases the base salary and removes the bonus. Isn’t it great to have the government running companies. What could go wrong?

  406. Sastry says:

    #415… Why not get back into equities now? Even if they go down 50% from here, there is probably a good chance that they will recover to current levels and go higher up.

    I guess she cannot convert her 403b to an IRA, right? Can she move her stuff to TIAA-CREF? They should have some i-bonds (probably safe)?

    I presume if AIG goes down, the fed won’t let AIG fk all the teachers and university folks that have investments through AIG.

    S

  407. Shore Guy says:

    It seems Timmy has a a lett-than-close relationship with the TRUTH. One wonders if it might not be a bit of purgery as well:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/20/business/20bonus.html?hp

  408. chicagofinance says:

    A bunch of crap….

    WSJ
    MARCH 20, 2009 Wall Street Shudders as Lawmakers Take Aim at Pay

    By AARON LUCCHETTI and PETER LATTMAN
    Finance executives scrambled Thursday to react to a bill that would gut the current Wall Street compensation system.

    Many bank officials were caught off-guard by the depth of public ire against Wall Street bonuses, and the passage of a bill by the House that would tax many of those bonuses by 90% at firms that received at least $5 billion in federal bailout funds. No brokerage firms or banks were immediately willing to go on the record with a view on the measure.

    A leading finance group, the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, was in consultation with a constitutional-law expert about the bill’s legality, according to a person familiar with the matter. But it, too, chose not to make a statement.

    Many firms have already cut the bonuses of top executives, in part to mollify lawmakers demanding cuts in pay for companies that take government money. But the current bill would also severely restrict the pay of traders, bankers and possibly brokers who produce millions of dollars in revenue.

    “This is about vengeance, not about saving money,” said Alan Johnson, a New York compensation consultant. “The American people are furious, and Congress is terrified they won’t get re-elected. But it’s a shame. The best people will leave and the American taxpayer will pay” because the bill would make the firms more “unstable.”

    Banks have thousands of employees who make more than $250,000 per household, the level at which the tax would take effect, pay experts say.

    If the bill becomes law, the flow of bankers and traders from U.S. banks to foreign firms, hedge funds and smaller boutique companies could accelerate, said people in the industry. The bill “creates an unfair advantage for any major player who is not subject” to the restrictions imposed on companies receiving federal funds, said Alan Guarino, a managing director at recruitment firm Korn/Ferry International.

    Still, the feeling at one major bank Thursday was that the legislation would get significantly watered down, making it applicable only to AIG, or, perhaps, firms that have received more government assistance than just the initial handouts made under the TARP program.

    —Robin Sidel and Randall Smith contributed to this article.

  409. jamil says:

    420: Bonus question (disclaimer: this may be subject to 90% tax):

    Who told the truth in the bonus mess?

    A: Timmy Geithner
    B: Chris Dodd
    C: Barack Obama
    D: None of the above

  410. jamil says:

    bonus will be awarded in an undisclosed UWS bar in the near future.

  411. Sastry says:

    Let’s see if all AIG and other execs jump to Barclays, DB, or UBS, as they warned (rather, threatened).

    S

  412. Sastry says:

    Clot/grim:

    Just a question on the 10 Red Bud, seems like it needed about 30k in repairs (including appliances, carpet, paint, etc.) The bank was putting 10k. The ask was 525k. My sense of a low-ball bid was 450k (rather very low since the ask for a neighboring house is about 660k). What would have been a good bid (not that I can or would want to go much beyond 450k for a house).

    Also, does it make sense for someone mentally prepared for a 450k house to pay about 2.1% taxes on a home assessed at 620k? [taxes were 13.5k for Y2008]

    S

  413. Steve says:

    This nightmare is what you get, when you invite politicians into your house by being so f—ing greedy that you kill your golden goose.

    Now it’s just game over. Game over for the economy, for Wall St, for businesses that will never be able to operate properly with the govt and its tenacles everywhere.

    How are we ever going to untangle out of this mess? Craziness.

  414. KareninCA says:

    zieba – I think that the $10 mango lady was in London; that it was a Brit article, if that helps.

    skep-tic – yes, western CT house prices are going down, down, down. being from eastern CT I find it very gratifying. I do think they’re dropping a lot faster than NJ prices. there is a huge amount of inventory.

    why does our buying our own Treasuries, make me think of my dog attempting to eat his own poop?

  415. Qwerty says:

    Shore Guy, this is going to leave a mark…

    MR. LENO: Now, are they going to put a basketball –- I imagine the bowling alley has been just burned and closed down.

    MR. OBAMA: No, no. I have been practicing all –-

    MR. LENO: Really? Really?

    MR. OBAMA: I bowled a 129.

    MR. LENO: No, that’s very good. Yes. That’s very good, Mr. President.

    MR. OBAMA: It’s like — it was like Special Olympics, or something.

  416. Mrb says:

    Plan to Solve Crisis: Let Immigrants Buy Houses Buy a house and you get a green card !…http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/212121/Plan-to-Solve-Crisis-Let-Immigrants-Buy-Houses?tickers=XHB,TLT,TOL,DHI,PHM,UUP,%5EDJI?sec=topStories&pos=4&asset=TBD&ccode=TBD

  417. Clotpoll says:

    Dr Yes (329)-

    Unless it is a documented seller concession- to be applied toward a buyer’s prepaids, points or closing costs- on a RESPA, it’s illegal.

  418. Clotpoll says:

    Chi (338)-

    So, you’re saying AIG hasn’t been proved to be a chronic malefactor? Just because the public has turned its ire- in general- against AIG, it is not the public’s fault that they are unable to distinguish the individual bad guys who should bear the brunt of the vitriol.

    Companies like AIG are only as good as their worst person…or at the very least, their worst person who has his hands on the leverage and a big position.

    “NOTE: I am not arguing it is the case. I am positing that we have no fcuking clue and it is a joke that people are getting angry.

    People are just pissed and want to vent. Anything that can be opportunistically turned for political benefit is fair game.”

  419. Clotpoll says:

    vodka (346)-

    I get my “bonuses” by shorting the giant zombie corporations we discuss every day here.

  420. Unfortunate news. Hopefully New York will begin to see upticks sooner rather than later.