From First American CoreLogic:
Double-Digit, Year-over-year Home Price Declines Continued in January
National resale housing prices fell 11.6 percent in January from a year ago. Home prices have declined by at least 10 percent on a year-over-year basis for 11 consecutive months and February preview data indicates the trend will continue.
The number of metropolitan markets experiencing price declines was, by far, the highest level tracked by the LoanPerformance HPI. As of January 2009, more than 700, or nearly three-quarters, of all metropolitan markets were experiencing home price depreciation, up from 254 markets experiencing depreciation in December 2007 and 394 in June 2008.
…
LoanPerformance HPI Largest CBSAs Ranking:
CBSA 12 Month HPI Change %
Edison-New Brunswick NJ -9.34%
New York-White Plains-Wayne NY-NJ -8.46%
…
LoanPerformance HPI State and National Ranking:
STATE 12 Month HPI Change %
National -11.61%
New Jersey -9.31%
first?
wow, Maryland was bubblicious? i figured all the money flying out of DC and defense contracting would prevent any collapse/marked decline.
Nicholas, what say you?
Did someone ask about New Home Sales?
From Barry Ritholtz:
New Home Sales Fell 41% in February 2009
The parade of the mathematically innumerate media business writers continues unabated. The latest evidence? New Home Sales.
After incorrectly reporting the Existing Home Sales, the mainstream media totally screwed the pooch on the Census department report of New Homes.
No, New Home Sales data did not improve. In fact, they were not only not positive, they were actually horrific. The year over year number was a terrible down 41%. Sales from this same period a year ago have nearly been halved.
Why did the media report this as positive? If you only read the headline number, you saw a positive datapoint: February was plus 4.7% over January.
To get the the facts, you need to read below the headline. In the present case, it wasn’t the seasonality that threw them, it was the “90-percent confidence intervals” — or as it is more commonly known, the margin of error.
…
Note that the month over month data at 4.7% — plus or minus 18.3% — is statistically insignificant. (i.e., meaningless). The reported data does not inform us if sales improved month-over-month or not. It is a range, from down -13.6% to plus 23%. Since “zero” is part of that range, we can draw no conclusion. As the Census Department itself notes, “the change is not statistically significant; that is, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease.”
The data does however, tell us that the year-over-year sales fell 41.1% plus or minus 7.9% gives us a range of -49% to -33.2%. The entire range is negative, therefore we can conclude sales fell year-over-year.
These are facts. This is data. This is how you interpret it. Most of the MSM reports (WSJ, Marketwatch, Bloomberg) were simply wrong.
third!!
Best Buy up over 13% on news that earnings fell only 23% in its fiscal 4th Q.
“…Best Buy sees profits this year of $2.50 to $2.90 a share, topping the Street consensus of $2.47. The company sees comp store sales ranging from flat to down 5%; the retailer expects to open 65 net new stores this year.”
No recession here.
Any medical residents out there? Talk to your HR department.
Second Circuit Overturns Two Decisions
Finding Medical Residents Subject to FICA
The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit March 25 found that two New York federal district courts erred in ruling as a matter of law that medical residents are “categorically ineligible” for Federal Insurance Contributions Act tax exemptions for students (United States v. Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, 2nd Cir., No. 07-0926-cv(L), 3/25/09).
“Congress has not defined the term ‘student’ such that a postgraduate doctor could never be eligible for the exception,” wrote Judge Peter V. Hall for the Second Circuit.
The two cases, Albany Medical Center v. United States and United States v. Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, were decided, respectively, by the U.S. district courts for the Northern District of New York and the Southern District of New York. Both cases raised the issue of whether postgraduate medical residents can invoke the Federal Insurance Contributions Act (FICA) exemption for students.
In each case, the district court ruled, as a matter of law, that postgraduate medical residency programs are not schools and that medical residents are not students. The Second Circuit vacated both district court judgments insofar as they ruled that medical residents are ineligible for the student exception as a matter of law.
However, it did affirm the Southern District of New York’s finding that money paid by the cancer center to its medical residents is not scholarships. The Second Circuit remanded both cases for further proceedings.
Completely off topic, but. NY Repealing the Rockefeller drug laws. Wow, that is a real surprise. I thought it would take much more time.
Given the burden that that the drug laws place on state resources how far behind is NJ?
Also, the yield on the 10yr has been all over the place the past few days (largely up though).
What have 30yr rates been doing?
FYI:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Direxion-To-Tie-Leverage-To-indexuniverse-14747659.html
“Best Buy up over 13% on news that earnings fell only 23% in its fiscal 4th Q.”
And that’s with the bankruptcy of Circuit City.
Nom, sean
The naval Aegis ABM i still somewhat new. It real performance in theater is still on open question in my mind. better then nothing, but the military has a nasty habit of hyping new systems. Until you put it in the field under real stress its anyones guess.
some info on the Aegis ABM system
http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/sm3-aegis-abm-system-faces-cutbacks-0565/
Shore,
How do you see the horn of africa igniting an international event? I am familiar with the volatility in the region but do not see the international connection unless you are referring to terrorist strikes based from that region.
#3 Thannks grim.
“Commercial Real Estate Collapse Picking Up Steam”
http://finance.yahoo.com/techticker/article/219933/Commercial-Real-Estate-Collapse-Picking-Up-Steam
“Even if banks were being completely honest about their marks — which we know they’re not — the accelerating collapse of the commercial real estate market would mean billions more in writedowns.”
#3 – It is a range, from down -13.6% to plus 23%. Since “zero” is part of that range, we can draw no conclusion.
I know this has been discussed to death on this, and other boards. But does anyone have any idea of why large media outlets never seem to try to understand these items? It’s not that hard or complicated. I mean, I get it and I majored in Lit.
What have 30yr rates been doing?
Initially, there was a nice drop in 30y conforming rates that coincided with the Treasury purchase plan. Unfortunately, that dip has been eroded away.
The 10y yield has almost clawed back to pre-announcement levels.
“I’d call it a 77-year cycle…that was begun by FDR.”
Clot,
No argument here.
kettle1 – guy I am related to works on the Ageis, was over in Japan installing it on the frigates it is the real deal and can shoot down satellites.
Patriot is a hopped up software upgrade for an anti-aircraft short range system.
sean,
wont debate you on the matter as you are clearly way more qualified to comment on it then i am.
Just spouting my opinion
#16 – Thanks Grim.
kettle, check your mail, looking for your input on a new chart ny metro inflation adjusted prices.
will update and post these charts each month with the the release of cs but was hoping you could double check my inflation adjustment calc. it doesnt look right to me. thanks…
re#7 Tosh time for a NJREREPORT methadone clinic?
If they aren’t going to lock up the drug offenders anymore then there will be a boom in treatment centers.
What was the name of that closed down nut house in Rockland County? Might make for a good investment. Heck you can buy up some of those old hotels and camp grounds in the Catskills for a song and a dance and turn them into drug treatment centers.
More bad news for South Jersey and the Philly area in general. Dechert, a large international lawfirm headquartered in Center City, is laying off 125 associates and staff. It’s unclear how many are from the Philly office, but it seems things are going downhill fast for our area’s large law firms.
#22 sean: My Dad’d friend owned one of those old resorts. It took him years to sell it.
35 room hotel, bar/restaurant/dining hall, on 70 acres. Fiannlly sold it all for 145k. We had some great Friday/Saturday nights up there.
New owners could not make a go of it,and it is now a state owned homeless shelter.
Totally. Immune.
have a good friend who works for Dechert in Charlotte. Don’t know how he’s survived so long given the total implosion of business down there.
Whew glad that crisis was averted, now I can finally stop buying gold
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Financial-experts-say-apf-14734171.html
re: commercial real estate.
had another friend who worked in commercial real estate finance up until about 18 months ago. I guess prior to the bubble, typical deal involved 15% equity. Well, my friends firm specialized in provided a debt tranche for that 15%, so there were apparently a lot of deals being done that were 100% debt, just like residential.
The feigned shock when commercial RE finally bites the dust will be sickening, indeed.
Clot (261),
Ain’t it the truth. Just like everything else we’ve witnessed over the past couple years that’s come as a “shock” to our illustrious government/regulators.
And, thanks to the UBS note, we have confirmed the sheeple are piling into this wonderful rally….to wipe out what little they have left of their “investments.”
Separately, I’ll be interested to see how the Brain Trust deals with (subsidized) bids coming in drastically below the bank marks for CMBS/RMBS et al.
Timmy & Friends have stated these securities are “mispriced” – e.g. the values will prove to be HIGHER than current marks, we just need some liquidity to make everything bright and shiny.
Either that, or this is a way to do a back-door nationalization of banks, they don’t currently have the b-lls to do themselves. But that gives them too much credit I fear.
Denial, stupidity and incompetence – what a combo.
Does anyone need any more proof that low mortgage rates will not reinflate the real estate bubble?
Mortgage money is now the cheapest since 1971.
And prices continue to fall, sales continue to erode.
If 4-handle mortgage rates can’t put a floor under prices, nothing will.
From Bloomberg:
U.S. Fixed Mortgage Rate Falls to Lowest on Record
The U.S. 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell to 4.85 percent, the lowest on record, on a government plan to increase purchases of mortgage-backed bonds and buy up to $300 billion of Treasuries.
The average rate is the lowest in the Freddie Mac weekly survey dating back to 1971, the McLean, Virginia-based mortgage buyer said today in a statement. The rate fell from 4.98 percent a week earlier, Freddie Mac said.
Lucent just laid off a whole slew of workers in NJ, a co-worker’s Father is one of them, getting paid until May. He will never find engineering work again in this country, nobody wants to hire a 60 year old engineer, guess he will have to settle for Walmart.
IBM is canning about 5,000 workers today and shipping the jobs overseas. Sterling Forest and Armonk locations getting hit hard.
JB [30],
This bust has zero correlation with the cost of $. There will come a time, I think, that the experts will realize this. Again, I think.
Anyone think Seton Hall Law would be receptive to a lowball tuition offer?
Simple question, who buys a house or car when they are worried about losing their job?
From Above the Law:
Nationwide Layoff Watch: Dechert Fires 125
We just received word from Dechert that the firm is letting go of an additional 125 people today. An email from firm chairman Bart Winokur went out first thing this morning announcing 63 attorney cuts and 62 staff cuts:
…
Dechert has been shedding a lot of people over the past few months. Since December, we’ve reported on at least 101 layoffs at Dechert, with the cuts being made to staff, staff attorneys, and attorneys.
With the other cuts happening around Philly, including the full scale dissolution of WolfBlock, it appears that the Philly economy is in rough shape.
Good luck to all of our Philly fanatics out there.
33 grim,
you will need comps
————
Veto,
Cool, will do.
“Financial experts say recession ends by year’s end”
From post # 27,
The same who never understood that the boom was a charade, they missed the peak, activity/prices, and failed to even catch a whiff of the subsequent demise. Now the same experts are claiming an end? Very comforting? Can they please post their stock holdings?
HEHE
My RE acumen is not top notch compared to the regulars here, but i can see certain situations were it could be considered a hedge of sorts.
Assuming you can “buy” for close to 0 down (i.e FHA ) then you have the potential of 1+ years of free housing if you lose your job as it can take that long to foreclose.
if you are renting, you will be kicked out much quicker then 1-2 years if you stop paying the rent.
You would also have to consider all the ancillary costs such as PITI . But if you really wanted you could essentially ignore maintenance for a while .
The current government shenanigans have created this potential short term safety net.
Also consider that you would only take a credit has as the mortgage is NON-recourse.
by my earlier prediction, the recession will end in 5 days. this is the last quarter with negative GDP. all recent stats show improvement in all repects. from Q2, we will see whole sentiment shift to positive side.
grim, would be interested to hear how that goes. my experience with nj law school admissions is similar to attempting to order burger from soup nazi, id be surprised if your conversation last more than 30 seconds.
add in the countercyclical nature of economy and higher education admissions volume coupled with the dearth of college seats per hs graduate in this state and top off with the solid reputation of seton hall, i’d say your chances of reducing the bill by even one penny are less than nill. dont let that discourage you though, just my perception.
The same who never understood that the boom was a charade, they missed the peak, activity/prices, and failed to even catch a whiff of the subsequent demise. Now the same experts are claiming an end? Very comforting? Can they please post their stock holdings?
Paged through the new issue of Realtor ™ Magazine last night and had the same thought.
Of course, the Realtors ™ will still blindly follow and parrot the party line.
Interesting that the positive Yun forecast was preceded by an 8-step program designed to end the recession via positive thinking and hope.
Sean (31) –
“nobody wants to hire a 60 year old engineer”
The FIRE economy is rapidly consuming the productive economy.
#37 BC Bob: from the same #27, home prices will bottom my mid-year, as in this year, as in about 2 months from now?
Is their statement a broad statment, genernal, is it broken down by geographic area in the country?
Jeez prices have not even finished really dropping in our area yet, as witnessed by all the sellers out there with their peak 2005/6 delusional asking prices.
And than they go on to say prices will start to rise? Rise at the same time they believe unemployment peaks at 10%?
So prices will start to rise,mid-year, but companies will not start hiring until 2010?
These clowns are clueless, does anybody ever question their thought or should I say lack of thought process?
The same clowns including Bernanke who said there would be no recession, ah never mind, I better run out and buy a house, before prices start to rise in 2 months.
bi:
You just cannot stop posting stupidity….
What will it take to finally muzzle you once and for all?
401k match go bye bye.
I blame Stu.
bi – if this recession ends in 5 days I am going to go out and buy 10 houses and quit my job working full time job and pursue a career of making a living as a flipper.
@35 Bring it on! I’ll finally be able to buy that penthouse atop of Rittenhouse Square.
#39 bi:all recent stats show improvement in all repects.
Can you show us those recent stats, becasue I must have missed the so called positive ones?
The recession ends in 5 days, does that include today?
So by Monday we are good?
Should I get fireworks and a keg?
Gee no offense, but you are a real ding-dong.
“by my earlier prediction, the recession will end in 5 days.”
We’ve got to get Wilson and tell him to sell.
#46 sean: bi bought a house at the peak. And since than has been trying to justify his purchase in a misplaced hope that he will no longer be underwater.
bi polar
“I blame Stu.”
I accept full responsibility. Now get back to work before I cut your salary by 10%!
grim, just my opion but i’d say you’d be more suited in bloustein phd… http://policy.rutgers.edu/academics/phd/
its just as respected as seton hall imo. When they learn you are quoted by ny times more than them, they might even waive the tuition altogether.
Law school seems tough when you get a late start. who wants to start at bottom again as clerk somewhere after getting pounded with homework and bar for 4 years straight. when all is said and done you wont start making real money for 10 years, and by then you could very well be burned out, ready to retire.
44#, stupid? not enough to hold some ultra-short stuff. this is greatest March madness I have ever seen. market rallied by 20% in less than 10 trading days. if you believe stock market is a leading indicator, it clearly shows the end of the tunnel is near.
“by my earlier prediction, the recession will end in 5 days.”
Mortimer, Randolph, where’s Beeks?
Just found out my friends father owes $400,000 on a property that be purchased for $230,000 in 1999.
U-F-B!
Want to see how far underwater Bi’s house is?
http://tinyurl.com/WhosHouse-Bi-sHouse
#44 all: He is not even entertaining anymore, just moronic.
50#, i made a trade-up at the end of year 2007. the price in my neighborwood is probablly 5% to 10% than what i paid. no big deal.
Bi…How are those homebuilders doing. I mean, the ones that haven’t gone belly up?
“if you believe stock market is a leading indicator, it clearly shows the end of the tunnel is near.”
Go back to March 17, 2008. How have the leading indicators performed since? End of the tunnel or over a cliff?
#54 bi: You do know that the biggest rallies occur in Bear markets do you not?
#59 Hmmmm, hmmmmm, hmmmmm.
bi –
must I buy a house within 5 days else I’ll have missed the boat again?!
oh boy, I hate bidding wars…
bi: how come you are only around on market up days?
the least i am worring about is the market price of my house. you need to have a place to stay. if you ahve school-age kids, you don’t want to move that often.
Someone really ought to make chart for all the times that Bi has called a bottom.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_Tsw4SpdcOzQ/Ryy4NQ7ZgDI/AAAAAAAAAF4/1lhAZ4aRXqo/s1600/RockBottom-1.jpg
From previous thread: FCUK = French Connection United Kingdom. About three years ago all the euro-teens were wearing it. Haven’t seen it since.
#64 greg: If you buy today and settle Fed Funds, you can settle by Tuesdayy, you might just squeak by. Hurry, hurry.
65#, i didn’t show up in last few days even monday (market up 7%). i show up only when i can breath (since i am deeply underwater by your imagination)
#66 bi: and round and round we go.
more anecdotes of stupidity:
Friend called his RE agent and said he’s worried that he overpaid. RE agent told him not to worry because if he were to buy today there’s no way in hell he would been qualified for the property. Friend hung up the phone happy that he got in while he still could.
Concept of qualification process and affordability is foreign to the bubble heads.
fxp getting murdered
“Someone really ought to make chart for all the times that Bi has called a bottom.”
Stu,
If I remember correctly; 3/17/08, 7/15/08, 9/17/08, 10/10/08 [Along with John and all his friends] and 11/21/08. I may be missing a few other dates.
73 – yeah, whats up with that? FXP at 24.
bby up 6 , poor mike
[35] grim,
I hear that Dechert also hired a group from WolfBlock, so it is probably making space.
In this economy, even busy associates need to be concerned. Not so much that their own business will turn down, but that they may have been “bubblehires” that the partners settled for because they could not find the talent they wanted. Now that talent is out there, and priced to sell. Partners will look to “trade up” at these lower rates by shedding less talented or productive associates for those that may be well regarded or have a book of business.
Some of the law firm layoffs are not true economic downturns. What you are seeing may also be cases of “trading up.”
Hahahhahahh!
“How your Sausage bailouts get made!”
http://dealbreaker.com/2009/03/how-your-sausage-bailouts-get.php
on the law school tuition, what you need to do is get admitted at a few places and then hopefully you will get a grant at at least one, then you can play the others off this.
be careful though because the money you get the first year they may not give you for the second and third years (even if they say they will). this happened to me.
[55] BC,
“Looking good, Billy Ray”
“Feeling good, Winthorpe.”
Grim,
FWIW, you would do better to learn how to repair haughty german cars than go to law school.
The bubble in law is deflating rapidly, and there has always been a surfeit of lawyers. It will get worse on the magnitude of the early 90’s when law grads were pimping themselves for 19K a year paralegal jobs. Even in 1997, a lot of my friends hung out shingles because they could not find jobs.
Law hiring is a lagging indicator, and I don’t see real demand for our services returning until government lawywers start retiring en masse.
#77
“Some of the law firm layoffs are not true economic downturns. What you are seeing may also be cases of “trading up.””
*********
this is interesting. it seems that there are layoffs in a lot of industries that are not really economically driven but more opportunistic right now
I am hoping its just quarter end moves.
Little chart to show somebody the next time they don’t believe you this is worse than the 30’s:
http://paul.kedrosky.com/WindowsLiveWriter/U.S.TotalCreditMarketDebtbySector1929200_93C7/debt-trend-breakdown_2.jpg
[82] Skeptic,
Careful. You are speaking heresy. Schabadoo called me out for suggesting that employers may opportunistically cut headcount for reasons other than simple economics. You are likely to get called a nasty name for such antiparty thoughtcrime.
[81]
“lawyers” even.
HEHEHE:
Looking at that chart, something happened in 1980. Trickle Down?
to me, holding FXP is equivalent to betting against 1.3 billion gamblers and chinese government linked hong kong red-hat financiers. you have to have enough resources for that cause.
[84] HEHEHE,
Wow, the household line is what gets my attention.
I expected that the dems to roll back the bankruptcy reforms of a few years ago. In a manner of speaking, they are doing that with the cramdown provisions and, to a much lesser degree with new restrictions on credit cards, but I wonder if they are going to restore chapter 7 to its former glory so that their core constituents can avoid chapter 13?
Perhaps banks expect it, which is why credit lines are being cut.
Well, back to work.
if we go back to pre-2005 Ch. 7, there is going to be a tsunami of filings
How to get the job that everyone is gunning for…..
http://www.funnyplace.org/stream.php?id=10435
Stu
i have noticed the same trend in many different financial data sets. My guess is that Vokler made certain changes that allowed an expansion of debt. I am still investigating that though
#92 – Didn’t Volker change the way CPI was calculated around that time?
Kettle:
During the 1980s ERTA had reduced personal tax rates by about 25 percent, while the Tax Reform Act of 1986 chopped them yet again.
Less taxes, more government spending, recipe for disaster!
Start here…
http://books.google.com/books?id=hVEMf4YE_rcC&pg=PA42&lpg=PA42&dq=1980%27s+expansion+of+debt&source=bl&ots=bA3E50IXJH&sig=9nr3eRstSlKHAriq2gPMP2kscbQ&hl=en&ei=Xa7LSem7Atqw-Abto5m8Bg&sa=X&oi=book_result&resnum=1&ct=result#PPA41,M1
Stu,
Deficits don’t matter!
“#92 – Didn’t Volker change the way CPI was calculated around that time?”
Tosh,
Arthur Burns.
any word from mmorgan with his shorts,and end of world calls
End of world begins when the bear market rally ends.
#81
Do you think law firms will be willing to hire attorneys as paralegals this time around?
Someone just sent the kid this forward:
U.S. house prices unexpectedly advanced in January, according to a report from the Federal Housing and Finance Administration on Tuesday.
The report showed a 1.7% month-over-month increase in U.S. house prices following a downwardly revised 0.2% decline in December. The consensus had been for a 0.9% contraction.
The largest increase came in the South Atlantic region, reversing a sharp decline the month prior, where home prices were up 3.6%. In the East North Central region, prices were up 3.9%.
Only one region saw a decline in house prices – the Pacific, where prices were down 0.9%. House prices in the West South Central region were flat.
On an annual basis, house prices are down 6.3% from January 2008.
Where’s the recession?
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“any word from mmorgan with his shorts,and end of world calls”
Can’t speak for his short positions, don’t know what they are. However, I do know that the S&P’s are more than 45% lower than the 10/07 highs.
Grim,
Do you read Above the Law? If not, read it straight for a month, plus comments. I read it every day along with this blog and it is ugly.
#97 – But Burns was out of office by `78. Were the lagging affects of his policies still having showing in `81?
This would also be about the time of the Saturday Night Massacre by Tall Paul to counter act the inflationary pressures from the 70’s. So the spike could be reflective of the %13 rates of the time…
Unless I’m missing something here…
#102 – Bachelor’s degree or higher in Visual Design, Information Architecture, Cognitive Interaction, or related field
Um, wha ? This better not be a tarted-up BA in communications.
grim says:
March 26, 2009 at 11:00 am
Does anyone need any more proof that low mortgage rates will not reinflate the real estate bubble?
Mortgage money is now the cheapest since 1971.
And prices continue to fall, sales continue to erode.
If 4-handle mortgage rates can’t put a floor under prices, nothing will.
4-HANDLE IS TOO HIGH. I am still wating for my below 1% interest 30 years fixed US goverment guaranteed loan!!!
With 3.0% downpayment of course.
Fixed rates of 1% or less will re-ignite the bubble!!!
Ellen (23)-
When we decsend into utter lawlessness, attorneys will become superfluous and expendable.
#108 – Fixed rates of 1% or less will re-ignite the bubble!!!
If they go negative I’ll definitely buy the biggest place I can get my hands on.
Tosh [106],
Yes, the foundation was built with Arthur Burns. The call to the bullpen went to Tall Paul, to clean up the mess.
104#, he didn’t start in 10/07.
i cannot wait to see his march numbers since he is joining de-leverage crowd.
>Basic Model Portfolio
UP 231.62%
June 27, 2008 –
February 27, 2009
Steve (29)-
Don’t forget dishonesty.
“Denial, stupidity and incompetence – what a combo.”
grim (33)-
I think a law school that will admit Carla Katz is fair game for anything you can dream up.
“Anyone think Seton Hall Law would be receptive to a lowball tuition offer?”
Veto,
you have mail
aren’t mortgages in Japan below 2%?
“When we decsend into utter lawlessness, attorneys will become superfluous and expendable.”
except for the small group that resemble The Judge in “Blood Meridian”
“104#, he didn’t start in 10/07.”
Who cares about his positions. Worry about what you have on. What you don’t have on can’t hurt you.
my guess is we see the current rally hit the wall sometime around mid april
118#, what to worry? another 2% up today
bi (88)-
To me, the only person on the other side of the trade who matters is you. If you’re across the table, I’m all in.
Happily averaging further down in FXP.
“…to me, holding FXP is equivalent to betting against 1.3 billion gamblers and chinese government linked hong kong red-hat financiers. you have to have enough resources for that cause.”
wow, Maryland was bubblicious? i figured all the money flying out of DC and defense contracting would prevent any collapse/marked decline.
Nicholas, what say you?
I few days ago I stated my position. Housing has fallen in my core areas by about 40% from bubble high prices. There were some areas that saw 300% appreciation so we haven’t yet reached “normal” in those areas.
There are many areas that are in complete shell shock. I stopped looking for housing over the last year and I told my wife that we would begin again in the Fall and possibly purchase in the winter.
She was absolutely shocked when she saw how much house prices have fallen. We looked at a 5 bedroom (we don’t even need that many rooms) 2.5 bath house that is selling for 265,000$ now and last year they were 325,000$. These are not short sales or forclosures as far as I can see.
freedy (98)-
Mikey, today’s take. Too lengthy to post in its entirety:
http://realestateandhousing2.blogspot.com/2009/03/market-update-were-stuck-in-situation.html
I was noting about 6 months ago that in lower income areas there were for sale signs on 10% of the properties with no traffic.
In higher income areas there was around 2-3% for sale signs.
Got a quote on a no cost loan from Wells for 5.125. I’m locked at 5.5! I should probably pull the trigger on principle.
tosh (107)-
Sounds more like a BA in brainwashing.
121#, you can do whatever with your money. some folks on this board already have sick stomach and you keep advocating this crap with natural gravity.
Got a quote on a no cost loan from Wells for 5.125. I’m locked at 5.5! I should probably pull the trigger on principle. Then refi into a 4.5 when/if it occurs.
“Does anyone need any more proof that low mortgage rates will not reinflate the real estate bubble?”
conspiracy theory.
doesn’t exist.
move along.
SAs
“And the boys and girls on CNBC, Bloomberg and the other Talking Heads are putting a shiny glow on piles of elephant dung . . . trying to make us believe it is chocolate pudding. Trust me, it’s not.”
Gotta love Morgan!
BC (111)-
When the call goes out to the bullpen this time around, the only person there to answer it will be Mel Rojas.
bi (127)-
Hey, at least I’m not employing “unnatural gravity”.
“…some folks on this board already have sick stomach and you keep advocating this crap with natural gravity.”
Are you really this much of a moron, or do you just protray one here?
Er, portray.
Clotpoll says:
March 26, 2009 at 1:04 pm
grim (33)-
I think a law school that will admit Carla Katz is fair game for anything you can dream up.
“Anyone think Seton Hall Law would be receptive to a lowball tuition offer?”
grim: barter with them…tell them that you will optomize their website in lieu of invoiced tuition from the bursar…..
Mel Rojas, not Urban Shocker?
Gonna take more than spitballs to get through that batting order, Junior.
clot: these first few sentences are the most ignorant pile of sh!t I’ve seen from someone in his position……give him credit for sheer chutzpah (or desperation)……
Clotpoll says:
March 26, 2009 at 1:16 pm
freedy (98)-
Mikey, today’s take. Too lengthy to post in its entirety:
Market Update – We’re stuck in a situation where Wall Street is going to do their best to close out this month a high as they can, to preserve as much of their first quarter bonuses as they can. On the one hand, I want to be on the sidelines, but the fear is that we miss the turn.
chifi 137,
as you are in the world of finance and i am not, could you explain a little further why you disagree so strongly?
clot: MM has degraded into Weekly World News territory. Why don’t you send him to go work with Hannity….
Chi,
I was honestly thinking the same thing when I read it. Nothing worse than a stock picker turn conspirator when things don’t go his way.
And when he ends up being correct in his short calls (and I do selfishly hope that is the case), I’m sure he’ll say something akin to the market makers had a temporary lapse of amnesia.
Seeking a Tech Writer for a 12 month contract in NYC
Chicagofinance,
They looking for someone to move to NYC? I fit that job description perfectly but I don’t live in NYC.
I would entertain a job switch if the compensation was right.
“Schwarzenegger Opens California Fairgrounds to Homeless Camp”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aKqkjyYkFN8w&refer=worldwide
kettle1 says:
March 26, 2009 at 1:27 pm
chifi 137, as you are in the world of finance and i am not, could you explain a little further why you disagree so strongly?
ket: send 1,000 of the strongest people you know to the ocean beach……
give them ropes…
have them throw them as far as they can with a heavy rock attached…..
have them drag the rocks to shore and repeat….
do this as the tide is coming in….
now tell me that these strong people are pulling in the water from the tide and raising it…..
FCUKING STUPIDITY
Nicholas says:
March 26, 2009 at 1:32 pm
Seeking a Tech Writer for a 12 month contract in NYC
Chicagofinance,
They looking for someone to move to NYC? I fit that job description perfectly but I don’t live in NYC.
I would entertain a job switch if the compensation was right.
Nic: It is a Cornell connection. I don’t know her. Just call her up…..
Chi (137)-
Call me ignorant, too…but I believe him.
Even if they’re not trying to end the quarter on a high, there is no explanation for what’s going on in the market other than its being the last giant pump before the biggest dump in world history.
All the rigged/false/misreported news of the last few days is not an accident.
Chifi,
thank you
Clott, Chifi
I have come to a similar conclusion as clott, but through my own research. I personally do not follow MM besides the occasional peak at his latest rant.
Stu,
Re #95, this guy doesn’t even have a grasp of the concept “economy”. Keyenesian demand-side economic policies and mismanagement has been massive for years in the US. The author is saying that demand-side economic controls must be matched with even more extensive regulation of all economic affairs. Last I heard, the US register of economic regulations was 75,000 pages long. Of course this guy will say that they were all the wrong regulations, written by “Laissez-faire” folks from the Reagan administration.
The economy is going down the drain, inspired by fundamentally Keynesian policies that argued that consumption is the economic primary, and must forever be stimulated, while economic production is easy and automatic. The result was a society which for decades has spent more than it produced, economically. The government and the banks simply plugged the gap with debt until it all collapsed. Private debt first, government debt next.
It’s about time people discovered for the first time what Laissez-faire capitalism really means:
http://aynrandlexicon.com/lexicon/capitalism.html
Why would someone who’s up over 230% on his portfolio since June of last year go nuts over what amounts to not much of a short squeeze that he sees ending any day now?
I find it funny that any number of people can’t wait to pile on a guy like Morgan, when most of the bankers, brokers, MSM and politicians out there look us in the eye and lie to us on a daily basis.
The entire world financial system is in complete collapse, and people wnat to point fingers at a short-seller who runs what is probably (in the big picture) an inconsequential amount of money?
Doing some math on the mortgage refi. Anyone here have a ballpark guesstimate on what the fees (closing costs) would be on a 25-year loan $360K, 4.5%? Still have plenty of equity. I can calculate the points myself ;) Credit rating near 800.
lost: Thank you. Found it….
http://www.frenchconnection.com/content/marketing/brand+identity.htm
Clotpoll says:
March 26, 2009 at 1:41 pm
Why would someone who’s up over 230% on his portfolio since June of last year go nuts over what amounts to not much of a short squeeze that he sees ending any day now?
clot: answer your own question; it is a good one; what does logic dictate?
Clot, Kettle1:
Repeat after me,”Bear Market Rally!”
Data has been manipulated ever since the words “Extra extra” were initially yelled.
Patience.
“BPS Passes Budget, With 500 Layoffs”
http://www.wbur.org/news/2009/83885_20090326.asp
-The Boston School Committee has approved an $812 million budget for next year. In a unanimous vote last night, the members passed a plan that includes cutting more than 500 staff positions, 200 of them in the classroom.
Figure the title fee (reissue). That’ll be the biggest part of your costs.
Kind of figured that out Clot. Maybe $3500 worst case scenario I’m thinking.
4.5% will save me $210/month over my current 5.5%. That’s a 15-month break even. Think Armageddon will take that long?
Clotpoll says:
March 26, 2009 at 1:34 pm
Chi (137)-
Even if they’re not trying to end the quarter on a high, there is no explanation for what’s going on in the market other than its being the last giant pump before the biggest dump in world history.
clot: how about many “long-only” asset managers sitting on a lot of cash and fearful of being caught flat footed? end of quarter window dressing / asset managers who are paid to investment money do not want to disclose as of 3/31 that they have 10%+ cash positions.
Grim,
“Anyone think Seton Hall Law would be receptive to a lowball tuition offer?”
Most likely not. For each of my students at Seton Hall Law, there were a couple hundred knocking on the door for a chance to earn $40,000.00 a year upon graduation. Only the top 5% make the big bucks. The rest slug it out just to find a job to cover the student loan nut.
IMHO only two types should go to law school
1) You get into Harvard, Yale, etc. You can finish dead last at Harvard or any of the top 10 and beat 90% of all law grads for a job.
2) Your last name is the same as one of the partners in firm you plan on working at. Law is the last true bastion of nepotism.
Note from my sarcasm, I am neither.
A. West (148) –
“The economy is going down the drain, inspired by fundamentally Keynesian policies that argued that consumption is the economic primary, and must forever be stimulated,”
I think you might need to revisit your economic theory books. Keynes wants consumption to be stimulated *only* during recessions. He actually says that we have to reduce deficits during good times so that we can stimulate during bad times.
As for Ayn Rand as the prophet of capitalism, that statement itself is a joke. Greenspan was a Rand follower, look at where that got us.
Clearly this will be the best place fot pizza in a few years once it gets rolled out in the U.S.
http://www.yahoo.com/s/1049336.
#101 thekid: I think someone is messing with you. The existing home slaes # was released earlier this week, and prices and sales were down in all regions.
http://tinyurl.com/caolul
CS NY Metro Prices
Real vs Nominal
feb2009=100
kettle, thanks again!
I am pretty amazed at the misreporting of basic stuff like the housing data of late. It’s either gross incompetence or manipulation.
“Keynes’s theory suggested that active government policy could be effective in managing the economy. Rather than seeing unbalanced government budgets as wrong, Keynes advocated what has been called countercyclical fiscal policies, that is policies which acted against the tide of the business cycle: deficit spending when a nation’s economy suffers from recession or when recovery is long-delayed and unemployment is persistently high—and the suppression of inflation in boom times by either increasing taxes or cutting back on government outlays. He argued that governments should solve problems in the short run rather than waiting for market forces to do it in the long run, because “in the long run, we are all dead.” [4]”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian
#82 skeptic:this is interesting. it seems that there are layoffs in a lot of industries that are not really economically driven but more opportunistic right now.
I agree to a point, but all industries in the private sector at least are feeling the effects of this recession.
“It’s either gross incompetence or manipulation.”
It’s what sells paper. No one wants to read or advertise in a paper that is all gloom and doom. I mean, look how many adverts exist on this blog.
Stu,
My $487K 30 yr fixed cost me $3200 all in, meaning lender fees, title, misc costs, county doc fees, etc.
Veto 162
great work on the chart, but 2 question.
feb2009=100
What am i missing, feb 2009 is around 180?
Due to the case shiller methodology as described on their website, a simple price adjustment using CPI data is only a very rough estimate at best.
A rigorous adjustment would need to be accounted for within the CS calculations themselves.
I suspect that the differences between that a a basic inflation adjustment wouldnt be huge, but that is only a guess and could be way off.
Really, its great work veto, and i mean this purely as constructive questioning. I have enjoyed collaborating with you!
cheers
[158] Escapee
I gather then, you are, in the words of John Grisham, one of the “pitifully uninitialed or unnumeraled.”
[128] stu,
Are you 5.5 or 4.5 on your lock? I just locked at 4.625, but if you got 4.5, damn, boy, you are good. If you are 5.5, email me and I can see if someone else at Wells can do better.
Costs are in line with what Clot quoted. He is correct also that nearly half that is the refi reissue on the title ins.
RE gloom and Doom
people need to get over the meme of “Gloom and Doom”.
Its the classic fable of the ant and the grasshopper. Just because summer is coming to an end and you dont like it has no bearing what so ever on the validity of some one arguing for storing food in preparation for the winter months.
Modern society and the MSM are the grasshoppers and are harping that we are just experiencing a slight cold spell and the summer warmth will soon return.
The summer warmth will return, but long after the grasshoppers of the world have starved and frozen to death.
Doom and Gloom is someone suggesting that its the end of the world. Its simple prudence to recognize a massive financial dislocation that could very well be a global event larger then any ever experienced.
the current meme of “Doom and Gloom” is a classic debating/propaganda technique used to get people to instant disqualify and idea without regard for its actual strength as an independent argument.
chi (152)-
What I think is that Morgan is an essentially honest guy who harbors a degree of genuine outrage that is becoming increasingly difficult for him to control.
[154] sas
With the exception of Boston Latin, no one sends their kids to a Boston Public School if they can avoid it.
sas (154)-
Is our childern learning?
Stu (156)-
$3,500-ish sounds about right to me.
2 cent,
Once people accept the Keynesian basic premises that
1) it’s demand that drives economics,
and
2) the government is competent to manage demand,
then the result will be politicians forever hoping to stimulate consumption in excess of real economic productivity.
The premises are false, and Keynes’ entire theory is false, because it doesn’t describe an economy. He assumes economic production happens automatically, magically, it’s just there, for he and other philosopher kings in politics to distribute as he wishes. His theories are instantaneous models, and cannot be linked together to form a long run model – this is his reason for the distaste for the long run. Keynes said – spend today, and in a way dictated by government officials. Hell on earth for an economy.
Greenspan was basically a Keynesian, by the way, despite his early-in-life acquaintance with Rand. She was dead, along with any philosophical affinities Greenspan once had for Rand, by the time he was appointed the central planner of US money and banking.
chi (157)-
Sure. Same as always, I guess.
Seems like many investors might appreciate seeing long-only managers with 10%+ cash positions these days, though.
[158] escape, redux
“Only the top 5% make the big bucks.”
5% is genererous. Based on my experience, coming out of l.s. at the end of the 90’s recession, only the top 1 or 2 grads will make that now.
Other than that, your observations are spot on. Grim would do well to consider that if considering SHULS. IMHO, one should not waste their time in this area unless he/she gets into Columbia or NYU, locally, or one of the other top 18 nationally.
“New Gold Rush: Party Like It’s 1849”
http://news.yahoo.com/s/livescience/20090326/sc_livescience/newgoldrushpartylikeits1849
Escape (158)-
I thnk Shakespeare had it right in Henry VI.
Let’s kill all the lawyers.
“Is our childern learning?”
no, your children are being brainwashed to be consumers and kick you… the parents…to the curb.
you think they are your children? ha ha ha
joke is on you sap!
SAS
NJGator says:
March 25, 2009 at 10:00 pm
Lost 131 – The closest you can get to good food in Tampa is Chick-Fil-A. Nothing is good there…period.
actually, the strip clubs have pretty good food. better than the chain restaurants.
tampa’s strip clubs are akin to what’s in vegas.
New York Times plans temporary pay cut, layoffs
New York Times plans temporary pay cut, will lay off 100 non-newsroom staff
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/New-York-Times-plans-apf-14756864.html
yikes (182)-
This is the quality information that keeps me coming back here.
[178]
“one should not waste their time in this area unless he/she gets into Columbia or NYU, locally, or one of the other top 18 nationally”
One should not waste time becoming a lawyer period, if the overriding concern is to make big bucks. Invariably, lawyers who entered the profession for that reason are miserable, souless bags of skin and the main reason the profession is so screwed up.
[184]
Haha I like this information too. I wish was able to get some use of it. What about food in the NY area clubs?
poor (186)-
A pal of mine used to be the chef @ Stringfellow’s back in the day. I worked a couple of nights there with him, just to get a “feel” for the place.
The food was good. Really good. Unfortunately, handling foie gras in the presence of naked women gives one a creepy feeling that only intensifies as your repeatedly handle the foie gras.
Where’s John when you really need him?
Nom,
No lock obtained. I am currently about 5 years into a 5.5 30-year fixed with WF. We plan to buy another place (hopefully) sometime early next year if the prices come down to semi-realistic. We should qualify for the best of the best rates since we have no debt (besides our current mortgage), perfect credit and a lot of liquidity as well as decent income.
My goal is simply to obtain a lower monthly payment for no better reason than to save more dough. Should improve our ability to obtain a 2nd loan when we look to buy our next place as we plan to keep our current multi for tax shelter purposes (as you have already figured that out).
Was quoted 5.125 on the Wells no cost loan and 4.75 on a traditional (pay da man) refi. I did the math and I will wait for the 4.5 traditional. Considering my outlook on the inflation/deflation thang, I may want to refi into a 30 and put the difference saved into my Buillion Vault account as a hedge.
“handling foie gras in the presence of naked women gives one a creepy feeling that only intensifies as your repeatedly handle the foie gras.”
So did you take any foie gras with you into the champagne room?
Stu,
There’s no foie gras in the champagne room!
Grim,
Your company ended its match too? What industry and size company, if it is not too intrusive to ask.
My company was a trendsetter in the removal of the 401K match. I think we lost ours back in August of last year. Your pay cut is coming next. Trust me!
http://preview.tinyurl.com/IsThatGrimOnTheRight
the connection between food and flesh is a curious one. See
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0097108/
or this
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0070130/
Better link.
http://tinyurl.com/IsThatGrimOnTheRight
” thnk Shakespeare had it right in Henry VI.
Lets kill all the lawyers.”
Actually, this admonition was in the context of how to overthrow a government. Interestingly, Pakistan carried out a less violent version of this a few years back as part of a process of preventing democracy from growing.
We can all agree to hate the scum-of-the-Earth slip-and-fall lawyers and other slime balls; however, lawyers are the final protection, just before taking to the streets with arms, of republican government.
dow 9500 looks like a resistance level:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJI#chart2:symbol=^dji;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Stu (190)-
Seared, or raw?
Please specify.
South Park Comedic Genius.
http://dailybail.com/home/financial-comedy-genius-south-park-is-in-recession-and-needs.html
bi (199)-
I think your head is resistant to intelligence at any level.
[198] Re: Lawyers – well said.
Countries with weak legal systems do not enforce private contracts or rights to private property.
I think Bi has just told another Fibonacci.
anybody got a spot for Carla? expelled
Maybe Jon will pick up the tab for the money CWA wants back from her:
by Josh Margolin/Statehouse Bureau
Thursday March 26, 2009, 2:33 PM
“Former state-worker union chief Carla Katz was expelled from the Communications Workers of America Wednesday after an internal union tribunal unanimously found she was guilty of mismanaging the nation’s biggest local.
In addition to being found guilty, the tribunal has ordered Katz to reimburse the union more than $138,000 for funds she spent on personal and political expenses in violation of union regulations.”
Time to by SRS? Here are some reasons why..
Its important to understand that commercial real estate is a lagging credit performer, given underlying leases and a borrower’s initial instinct to keep the mortgage current.
CMBS deliquencies have only gone from about 0.4 pct to 2.0 pct in the past year and have a substantial way to go.
There is virtually no refinance money available for commercial properties with 25+ pct of the CRE market’s balloon loans coming due in the next 2 years. The only CRE mortgage money available is for apartments via Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Many balloon loans will be extended, but enough forced liquidations will occur in the face of virtually no financing to push CRE prices down in many markets at similar levels to residential, if not more, given the severe lack of financing available. Traditional financing from banks, life companies, and CMBS has basically been shut off for 2009 and likely much or all of 2010.
Because regional banks were “squeezed out” of the permanent financing market by CMBS lending, their balance sheets generally have riskier type loans such as construction, land, etc. The default rates and losses will be much higher for these loans than CMBS.
Bottom line – we’ve got a very long way to go before the CRE credit problems work themselves out.
Shore (198)-
Please stop adding context when I rant. :)
Sean,
I really like South Park and was excited that they were finally going to do a show on the financial crisis, but I think they really were off last night.
Stan was right in that an economy is just about people. But his plea to fix the economy was to ask people to “start spending again”. Randy’s faulty notion was to tell people to spend nothing. But between Stan and Randy, there was no discussion of production, the foundation of an economy – people making and doing useful things for one another. They were both focused on demand, just taking opposite sides. The real voice of wisdom -normally Stan’s role- would be to say – keep working hard to do useful things, but just stop spending more than you make, and start to save and invest for the future.
The funniest part was the bankers using a headless chicken running around on a lottery wheel to make their decisions to bail out another bank.
Home sales will turn around by midyear and home prices will begin recovering by the end of this year after bottoming out at 35 percent of their value from peak to trough. Home prices won’t return to their values of a few years ago during the boom, but will recover from current lows, he said.
Just thought you guys would like to know that housing will bottom this year. Don’t get your panties in a bunch because I’m backed by a bunch of respected DJIA economists…recession is over nothing to see here.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Financial-experts-say-apf-14734171.html
“Former state-worker union chief Carla Katz was expelled from the Communications Workers of America Wednesday”
Does she lose her free-ride at Seton Hall Law now?
I don’t understand – with no pension and no company 401k match where does that leave workers who might not want to work until they drop? I assume that once the match is dropped companies won’t ever want to re-instate it. Will retirement be a thing of the past?
She’s lucky it wasn’t a construction union or she could be under a parking space at Xanadu.
The beginning of the end of Abbot districts?
“New Jersey’s effort to right educational wrongs by bankrolling a group of low-income school districts came one step closer to an end on Wednesday.”
http://www.northjersey.com/education/abbottprogram032509.html
“The beginning of the end of Abbot districts?”
Now watch Hoboken’s property taxes make a new high:)
frank, you have already loaded up at 70s. I am waiting for your shares.
>207# Frank says:
March 26, 2009 at 3:27 pm
Time to by SRS? Here are some reasons why..
not to pile on, but plenty of grads of top l0 law schools are getting hosed right now too with all of the big firm layoffs.
I personally like my job (despite the miserable lawyer stereotype), but it is important to be brutally realistic about what it is happening to the profession before going in.
the fact is that there are far too many law schools churning out far too many lawyers and the law firm as a business model is going through a huge shakeup right now. There are definitely still opportunities, but unfortunately a lot of people still head to law school because they don’t know what else to do, and this is an even worse decision today than it has been in the past.
Nicholas (210):
I believe it when the red bars come close to the purple bars. Until then, it’s all talk…
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/Sco6M6Y6Y0I/AAAAAAAAE34/G_5B41cFYtI/s1600-h/NHSFeb2009NSA.jpg
I think a bet in SRS is a bet against the gov’t right now, and you might get plowed. There are a lot of people waving their hands and jumping up and down telling the gov’t that CRE is going to be a total disaster, and something has to be done.
I would wait until the Fed/Treasury release a new CRE plan, then bet against SRS.
You are asking for pain going short a market that hasn’t experienced government intervention yet.
“I don’t understand – with no pension and no company 401k match where does that leave workers who might not want to work until they drop?”
Don’t you know that the economy is for the corporations and not the workers? Just ask the supply-siders over here.
Nicholas (210):
New home sales, same story…
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/ScefQxk-tMI/AAAAAAAAE3A/kfRnlDJqYlo/s1600-h/EHSNSAFeb2009.jpg
#198
“however, lawyers are the final protection, just before taking to the streets with arms, of republican government.”
made me cry beneath my powdered wig.
220#, daddyo, you are absolutely right. that was the purpose of TALF (or maybe TALF 2 or TALF 3).
“You are asking for pain going short a market that hasn’t experienced government intervention yet.”
Yeah look at the amazing benefits all the government intervention has had in the financials. If you think Citi has made its only trip down to a $1 I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you.
“You are asking for pain going short a market that hasn’t experienced government intervention yet.”
[220]
Pain? I shorted SPG is the triple digits. I would imagine that the pain is inflicted on the buyer in triple digits. No?
kettle, its been fun, i’ll update and post our charts after each cs release and we can keep tweeking and adding as we think of new considerations.
feb2009=100
What am i missing, feb 2009 is around 180?
feb2009=100 is only refering to the fact that on feb2009 $1 equals $1 in both nominal and real terms. When we apply that to the cs metro index we get an index value of 180, again both nominal and real terms since thats our base starting point. Since $1 equals $1 at feb 2009, the current index value of 180 remains 180. Lets keep your format for this calc, i prefer the way you laid it out, much cleaner.
I’ll look further into cs methodology again but im pretty sure our inflation adjustment is all we need without having to perform spreadsheet surgery on the CS formulas. The way i see it, we only need the cs index value in nominal terms, which is how its already quoted, and then our cpi adjustment removes the inflation seperately.
3b says:
March 26, 2009 at 2:03 pm
#82 skeptic:this is interesting. it seems that there are layoffs in a lot of industries that are not really economically driven but more opportunistic right now.
3b: I don’t want to come off as callous scum, but it is tremendous shrewd business practices that are executed by successful companies. You don’t get a freebie to hack out some of the organization without retribution….
I’d wait until the fed says something, then jump in. Otherwise, SRS is a great bet in general. You have to realize that the tracking ETF’s do not exhibit the correct return profiles if you hold them through an up and down cycle. They should be played in short one-way bets.
CMBS has rallied hardcore all week on the back of the PPIP/TALF expansion. I think this rally continues a few days or weeks or until the Fed announces a crazy CRE Financing vehicle.
In the long run, CRE is toast though.
For those still questioning inflation deflation.
consider the following, spoken by someone smarter then myself
People think in terms of inflation when they think of things becoming unaffordable, but deflation can achieve the same thing only much more quickly. When purchasing power falls faster than price, almost everything becomes less affordable very quickly, and the essentials become less affordable more quickly than anything else.
Clotpoll says:
March 26, 2009 at 2:24 pm
chi (152)- What I think is that Morgan is an essentially honest guy who harbors a degree of genuine outrage that is becoming increasingly difficult for him to control.
clot: pop a couple of Xanax with a Johnnie Walker chaser…..better than masturbating the keyboard of his laptop…..
grim unmod…I think
Veto,
I will see if i cant find a few moments to look into the CS Methodology/Inflation issue tonight.
cheers
Clotpoll says:
March 26, 2009 at 2:27 pm
chi (157)- Sure. Same as always, I guess.
Seems like many investors might appreciate seeing long-only managers with 10%+ cash positions these days, though.
clot: why should I own your fund then? ….if I want to hold cash then I liquidate 10% of the investment and hold the cash myself…
Google cutting 50 jobs in NYC
“Google cutting 50 jobs in NYC”
what recession?
thats a conspiracy theory.
stock market up today.
SAS
“google”
you people and your tinfoil hats.
no such thing as google. all talk, exaggerations, and lies.
SAS
Where’s Pret? I remember him saying that present day financial job cuts would not come close to dot com.
http://www.challengergray.com/press/Financial%20Cuts%20Breakdown.pdf
Re: Law school
No intention of ever becoming a lawyer, I just want a JD.
#210 nicholas: 35% decline yes in AZ, CA Fla, etc., but we have not had a big enough decline in the northeast, and yet we are being slammed with layoffs.
Lots of people who got severanc this time last year are almost finished receiving it. And for those who got it in Oct/Nov, many are already quickly into the half way mark before it ends.
And perhaps they can explain how prices will rise, anywhere, while unemployment is still rising.
Rising in places that have seen 40 to 50% declines in prices?
Perhaps, but I would not hold my breath for that this year.
Same clowns who were consistently wrong, still clowning around.
“Lost 131 – The closest you can get to good food in Tampa is Chick-Fil-A. Nothing is good there…period.”
Berns Steakhouse.
Nuff said.
JPMorgan Said to Delay Contributions to Employees’ 401(k) Plans
March 26 (Bloomberg) — JPMorgan Chase & Co. will delay contributions to 401(k) retirement plans for salaried employees until the end of the year and may reduce the payments, according to a person who received a company memo on the changes.
Workers making $50,000 to $250,000 annually will cease getting the contributions every two weeks and may see the benefits adjusted to a yet-to-be-decided amount, according to the person, who declined to be identified because the New York- based bank hasn’t disclosed the new policy. The dollar-to-dollar match for those earning less than $50,000 won’t change, the person said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a6KMcOpk5O1U&refer=home
They’re profitable baby
#189 Stu: if the prices come down to semi-realistic.
Well, that should be a given (that the prices will be down).
grim 33, 239
1) LSAT >160 will get you $$$$ (I still have the study guides/exams if you want them.)
2) I’m with you – I think nom d said it before? “best education you can get” even if you don’t practice. (exactly my reasons for trying to go…)
3) who ever said Columbia/NYU is right. (skep-tic maybe?) Pedigree is *everything* and every application asks “did a relative go here…”
4) What Med School didn’t matter in most cases. Law School is all about the “Where?” and “Who?”
5) What is your end goal?
sl
242#, i read this as a piece of good news. they will probablly announce returning TARP money this year as goldman did.
Stu, 197
http://tinyurl.com/IsThatGrimOnTheRight
Not Grim. No Chest Hair (just ask Chifi)
sl
Bi,
Thanks I always find you amusing.
“best education you can get”
u want education, lets do an assignment together.
but, you’d have to take that other colored pill.
:)
SAS
speaking of assignment, I have a big one coming up at end of April and will last a few months. so, good chance i will be MIA for awhile.
i know, your heartbroken, but life goes on.
SAS
SaS – stay out of the pachinko parlors if you are going where I think you are.
Be sure to show my Muskies some love tonight. Pitt will be a tough one but back to back Elite Eights would be nice.
SAS, I’m gonna be heartbroken. I really am genuinely interested in the “AIG doesn’t exist” and “Pension fund collapse” conspiracy theories.
#252 – I really am genuinely interested in the…“Pension fund collapse” conspiracy theories.
Might I offer this bit of fun?
Good read on the bear raids:
http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/106806/Have-We-Seen-the-Last-of-the-Bear-Raids?sec=topStories&pos=6&asset=TBD&ccode=TBD
“pachinko parlors”
we played some pachinko one night, but we were getting a little bored, so we chased tail out the back door, which led to where the real currency was being played….along with a few known politicans (to my surprize).
and for the rookies out there
there are 2 other universal currencys, that is hush..hush…
and it ain’t fiat paper, or the shiny metals.
SAS
From Bloomberg:
Soros Says Commercial Property Values Will Fall 30%
Billionaire investor George Soros said U.S. commercial real estate will probably drop at least 30 percent in value, causing further strains on banks.
“Commercial real estate has not yet fallen in value,” Soros, speaking at a forum in Washington, said. “It is inevitable, it is written, everybody knows it, there are already some transactions which reflect and anticipate it, so we know, they will drop at least 30 percent.”
I find it enjoyable to listen to Mondo Bongo by Joe Strummer and the Mescaleros when SAS tells a story.
Sets the mood.
“drop at least 30 percent.”
i believe thats mild.
when will the college loan bubble burst?
that one is on the horizon.
SAS
241. Columbia Restaurant. good.
“I find it enjoyable to listen to Mondo Bongo by Joe Strummer and the Mescaleros when SAS tells a story”
i like that song. I’ve never heard it before.
makes me want to tell the rest of the story
-geisha girls, bank activity, FBI from Atlanta, and of course 酒
SAS
in any case….
back to RE
SAS
bi says:
March 26, 2009 at 11:13 am
by my earlier prediction, the recession will end in 5 days. this is the last quarter with negative GDP. all recent stats show improvement in all repects. from Q2, we will see whole sentiment shift to positive side.
even for a clueless rube like yourself, this is pathetic. i have book-marked this insanely laughable prediction, just for future reference.
i’d rather meet Bi than just about any living male on the planet. i really cant believe such a simpleton exists.
221.2 Cents says:
March 26, 2009 at 3:57 pm
“I don’t understand – with no pension and no company 401k match where does that leave workers who might not want to work until they drop?”
The Public Sector where Pensions are greater then salary.
Interesting new tack. The democrats are using the mexican drug violence to enact a gun control agenda here.
Really.
http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/americas/03/26/kennedy.townsend.guns/index.html
Got Guns ‘n Ammo?
“Interesting new tack. The democrats are using the mexican drug violence to enact a gun control agenda here”
won’t they don’t tell you is that the US sells weapons to both sides:
-The real drug lords, the mexican govt and army, gets arms via the DEA & US Army.
-The rogue drug cartels, whom want a piece of the pie. They get arms from CIA and “LOW”.
there is a reason there are more bank than gas stations on the border shantys.
SAS
SAS 249
i am always up for an education and am a free agent, where do i send my resume?
interesting story here:
keep in mind, i believe if we are to return to somewhat of a free markets & economic recovery…more mass fraud will have to come to the surface and be exposed. ex. stories like this, Madoff, Standford, etc, etc.
one can argue, lack of trust is a step towards a free market.
“John McEnroe duped in art scam”
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090326/stage_nm/us_crime_art_mcenroe_spo
-John McEnroe was duped along with Bank of America, investment firms, art owners and collectors in a sophisticated $88 million art investment scam revealed in New York on Thursday.
many more shoes will fall.
just hope none are yours…
SAS
255 SAS
that would be guns and drugs
say kettle1,
does your name imply that your in the distillation buisness or do it as hobby?
SAS
SAS
distillation of a sort…
going back to mexican army vs. rogue cartel.
one little factor, which you may find it hard to believe, but easily turns tides: night vision.
mexican army has the 2nd best night vision apparatus equipemnt in the world. yes, they get it from US.
US had the 1st best equipment.
(top secret stuff that will blow your mind)
for some reason, the rogue cartels don’t have equal access to night vision.
I do not know why?
but I am sure this will change, if it not has done so already.
SAS
“one little factor, which you may find it hard to believe, but easily turns tides: night vision”
well, this statement is more of a personal opinion, but i think anyone whom has served in tactical operations would agree with me.
SAS
SAS
are you talking passive IR or light amplification or milimeter wave?
ok, i will shut up now.
I’m singing more than that idiot “Songbird” McCain tonight.
SAS
[265] sas
Which makes their subterfuge on this issue all the more outrageous.
I had a hard enough time believing that straw buyers in PA were able to keep the drug cartels well supplied with automatic weapons.
Who says the dems don’t know their history? This is absolutely a false flag op. First thing I thought of was the Maddox.
Wonder if NRA is already all over this? MSM will just lap it up, of course.
meanwhile at the G20 meeting.
‘White, blue-eyed bankers have brought world economy to its knees’: What the Brazilian President told Gordon Brown
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1165089/White-blue-eyed-bankers-brought-world-economy-knees-What-Brazilian-President-told-Gordon-Brown.html
daddyo (229)-
CMBS have been slipped into the TALF. The gubmint intervention is happening: in the wrong place, with the wrong program, in the wrong way, and in the dark.
Got shorty?
A Letter From Inside AIG: “The Entire US System Is Committing Suicide”
http://www.businessinsider.com/aig-guy-the-entire-us-system-is-committing-suicide-2009-3
sas (237)-
Google is a hoax. It’s doesn’t exist.
It’s a front for a gubmint computer surveillance program.
grim (239)-
Mike Morgan wannabe. :)
“No intention of ever becoming a lawyer, I just want a JD.”
HE (251)-
Pitt’s been playing like crap. They can be had.
Sas_
when you go on assignment, and you want to be incognito, just reverse the letters on your name here….
I will miss your take on things
on another note, dick enberg should never do college hoops
278….just makes me wish we had let them die months ago.
stan (283)-
Enberg lost his chops years ago.
He’s still good at the tennis thing, though.
“What the Brazilian President told Gordon Brown”
Sean,
Fcuk Gordon Brown. He’s responssible for the worst trade in the history of mankind, cost the British taxpayers billions. Then again, with today’s trillion dollar bailouts, what’s a few billion?
Any recommendations for a restaurant in Vegas?
L’Atelier du Joel Robuchon.
Things moving in California – maybe
Survey Says Many First-Time Buyers Ready To Act
By DAWN WOTAPKA
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
NEW YORK — Here’s more hope for the spring selling season: Many first-time home buyers stuck on the sidelines during the housing crisis might be jumping into the market, at least according to 1,000 prospective purchasers surveyed this month.
That’s significant because this group made up half of February’s 280,000 existing home sales, according to the National Association of Realtors. Such purchases let previous owners buy another home, a domino process that nibbles away at elevated inventory.
“They’re critical,” says NAR spokesman Walter Molony. “The market heals from the bottom up.”
According to Century 21 Real Estate LLC, more than three-quarters of those surveyed consider now a good time to buy, while 85% label prices — which NAR says have tumbled 26% from the July 2006 peak — affordable. Nearly 80%, meanwhile, say the government’s $8,000 credit makes signing the dotted line more likely within the next six months.
The number is undoubtedly higher in California, which is offering a credit as high as $10,000 to those snapping up new homes until next March or $100 million is exhausted. No need to rush — plenty of money remains, according to the state’s Web site.
But the Century 21 study contains a bit of bad news for new home builders struggling to survive the downturn: More than half of potential buyers are eyeing foreclosures or short-sales.
Even so, any purchases are good news.
“The more properties we can get moving, the faster we start to see the economy move back,” says Tom Kunz, president and chief executive of Century 21.
–By Dawn Wotapka, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-5248; dawn.wotapka@dowjones.com
cobbler (289)-
Maybe when prices here are 60% off the peak and we have 50%+ of the mix consisting of short sales and REO, NJ can get some sales volume going, too.
BC,
Vegas is my 2nd home. What type of vittles are you interested in and what level of luxury?
Clot [288],
Thanks.
cobbler (289)-
Before you get too excited, the NJ Spring market is DOA.
In fact, I’ll go out on a limb right now and declare all of calendar ’09 DOA.
It’ll be a march through mud until at least Q3-10, IMO.
And BC, if you invite me out there w/ you, I could probably get it comped
;)
BC (292)-
Best place in Vegas & not stuffy at all. Food is just as good as Robuchon/Jamin in Paris, too.
the best green chili joint is right outside of Vegas, it next to an off the strip granny casino.
the name escapes me.
SAS
Los Molcajetes is probably what you are thinking SAS (North Las Vegas) although Lindo Michoacan is Vegas’ best Mexican.
F’n connecticut game is on, what a bunch of bs. Hardly seen any XU action. Doesn’t matter anyway, whoever wins is going to lose to Duke if they play them in the next round. If Duke can’t beat them the refs will.
From AmLawDaily:
Two Dozen More Out at Clifford Chance
It’s been a rough week at the Magic Circle firm Clifford Chance, and it got worse today for 24 New York-based transactional associates who are losing their jobs, according to a firm statement available below.
In the statement, the firm says the layoffs are not performance-based, that the associates are “held in high regard by the firm” and that Clifford Chance “deeply regrets” the decision.
The associates all do transactional work in the firm’s New York office. In October, the firm laid off 20 New York-based litigation and dispute-resolution associates.
#260 sas
Alcohol?
“L’Atelier du Joel Robuchon.”
Bring your gold. You’ll need it. I can get a meal equally as good at a quarter of the price with 10 times the nostalgia.
酒 = sake
SAS
Stu [294],
Deal.
Stu [301],
Looking for the gold menu that is priced in silver.
258 SAS I agree, and have been saying that for years. I think if you look back 20 years and compare the tuition it is almost 80% higher for some schools, double for others. so you have young parents who are now still paying their college loans, while trying to save for the 2 y.o’s college bill 16 years ahead, all the while paying day care….forget housing…never get ahead. an oh yeah the goggles…does it even matter. I once unofficially sat in a swat vehicle. They said, “what to see what the next door neighbor is doing”? I took a pass. They, the gov’t or anyone with their hands on this stuff know more that the average Joe wants to believe.
cnbc (I know, I know..) has a slide show of who owns US debt. If it is true, not what I expected, and yet everything I expected at the same time…maybe it is the order of magnitude thing
http://www.cnbc.com/id/29880401
[293] clot
I am not excited – I don’t see around here any sort of frenzy described in the Dow Jones article. I’d rather characterise a situation here as hibernation…
#289 cobbler” That articel is N/A for our area. Prices have noy fallen enough.
Blurb on CNN “Signs of economic turnarouns, watch tomorrow to see how it may affect you. CNN helps through the maz etc.
Less than a week of an up stock market, a one month increase in home sales, and already a show tomorrow on an economic turnaround ?!!
Truly amazing.
speaking of Vegas:
“Las Vegas Project Weighs Bankruptcy
Court Protection for City Center, MGM Mirage’s Centerpiece on the Strip, Rattles Casino Industry”
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123811086468552891.html
Why can’t we get some pols like this guy over here. He might as well be talking straight to Jon Corzine.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94lW6Y4tBXs
clot/grim any idea what this means on a reo:
“Corporate addendum to follow an accepted full agreement of sale”
From the above link: Speaking to PM Brown.
“In the last year 100,000 private sector jobs have been lost and yet you have created 30,000 public sector jobs. Prime Minister, you cannot carry on forever squeezing the productive bit of the economy in order to fund an unprecedented engorgement of the unproductive bit.”
“In a few months, the voters will have their chance to say so, too. They can see what the markets have seen: that you are the devalued Prime Minister of a devalued Government.”
19 Lorraine, madison
Someone was looking for info on the property. Flipping through the local paper it’s scheduled for sheriff’ssale on April 2, judgement of $595k.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LATL7uMngnM&NR=1
DM leaked on the Internet……….
Boooooooooyaa Boycott Open Houses
French Connection United Kingdom
BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAAAAA
Painful X loss, if frigging Brown didn’t step on that end line with 1:18 left or whatever it was they’d likely have won. Went farther than I expected anyway and only lose two players to graduation though Anderson was a stud. Should be even better next year.
Clotpoll says:
March 26, 2009 at 7:27 pm
daddyo (229)- CMBS have been slipped into the TALF. The gubmint intervention is happening: in the wrong place, with the wrong program, in the wrong way, and in the dark.
clot quoting Depeche Mode lyrics…cool..
Great lies:
1) This won’t hurt a bit;
2) Yes, I will respect you in the morning;
3) I am from the government, I am here to help; and, now,
4) The recession is over, go back to spending and everything will be fine.
Re 19 Lorraine/Madison – Thanks, Leftwing. I guess the bank is taking that one back, seeing as it couldn’t sell for even less than that on the market.
“Simple question, who buys a house or car when they are worried about losing their job?”
Hard to believe anyone would. Nevertheless, I know a guy who got laid off and had very little savings. His first act? Goes and buys a new Caddie. He now rents his house to others and lives in the basement and uses a bucket for a toilet.
Hehhehe-
That was a hustle play you rarely see nowadays, thought he was robbed at first, but the ref made a good call. It was all out hustle, didn’t think he would catch up to it.
Memphis down big, and the dookies lose, won’t be a bad night for Stanley here.
French Connection UK…
this album is off the hook…..
Bloody hell………..
Clotpoll says:
March 26, 2009 at 7:31 pm
sas (237)-
Google is a hoax. It’s doesn’t exist.
It’s a front for a gubmint computer surveillance program.
clot, i’m all about conspiracy theories, but not even i can believe this