January Case Shiller HPI

The January S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Index is due out at 9am this morning. I’ll be on the road this morning, so check the comments for more details.

From Bloomberg:

Housing Prices in 20 U.S. Cities Probably Dropped in January

Home prices in 20 U.S. cities probably fell at the fastest year-over-year pace on record in January as demand plummeted and foreclosures rose, economists said ahead of a private report today.

The S&P/Case-Shiller index dropped 18.6 percent, according to the median forecast of 29 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. A separate report will likely indicate consumers this month were still pessimistic about the economic outlook.

A glut of unsold properties may keep prices low even as policy efforts to unclog credit and aid borrowers begin to take hold and ease the housing slump, now in its fourth year. Shrinking wealth and a persistent lack of confidence in the economy may also temper a turnaround in consumer spending.

“It’ll be some time before we reach the nadir in home prices,” said Joseph Brusuelas, a director at Moody’s Economy.com in West Chester, Pennsylvania. “We’re starting to see some signs of stability in housing sales, but there’s a significant oversupply.”

S&P/Case-Shiller will report the 20-city home-price index at 9 a.m. Washington time. Estimates in the Bloomberg survey ranged from declines of 17.2 percent to 19 percent, after a drop of 18.5 percent in December. The gauge has fallen every month since January 2007. Year-over-year records started in 2001.

From Forbes:

Home Price Index On The Horizon

On Tuesday, investors will be bracing for the latest report on the January S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index. Analysts expect the decline in prices to slow somewhat, falling 18.3% in the latest report after dropping 18.5% in December.

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289 Responses to January Case Shiller HPI

  1. grim says:

    From the Philly Inquirer:

    Second-home sales declined in 2008

    The deepening recession took a big bite out of second-home sales in 2008, the National Association of Realtors reported yesterday.

    The economic downturn hit the vacation-home market hardest, with sales down 30.8 percent, to 512,000 units from 740,000 in 2007. These homes are typically for the personal use of the buyers.

    Investors, however, make up a larger share of the second-home market, and that segment also experienced a drop – down 17.2 percent, to 1.12 million in 2008 from 1.35 million in 2007.

    Propelled by speculation and cheap mortgage money, the U.S. second-home market peaked in 2006, with 3.34 million houses sold. At the Jersey Shore, investors accounted for 80 percent of all second homes purchased that year, said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Economy.com in West Chester.

    At the lower end of the market, though, the pinch is being felt, as lenders tighten rules and private mortgage-insurance companies are increasingly unwilling to be involved in second-home sales.

    “It is possible to get a mortgage to buy a vacation home at the Shore,” said Philadelphia broker Fred Glick, “but the borrower has to [have] a larger down payment, great credit and provable income.

    “You also have to stay away from condo developments in which investors own 25 percent of units, or in which 10 percent of the units [are] owned by one person or entity,” he said.

    The reason: If the investor-owners default, remaining condo owners must assume a larger share of maintenance and other costs.

  2. crossroads says:

    ” At the Jersey Shore, investors accounted for 80 percent of all second homes purchased that year, ”

    thats amazing. no bubble there

  3. grim says:

    From the Daily Record:

    Seasonal job losses boost Morris’ unemployment to 6.6%

    The seasonal loss of construction jobs, the impact of retail job cuts and job losses among educated people were some factors that pushed Morris County’s February unemployment rate to 6.6 percent, experts said Monday.

    The county’s unemployment rose from 5.9 percent in January to 6.6 percent in February, the state labor department reported Monday. The rate was 5 percent last December.

    Last year, between December 2007 and February 2008, the county unemployment rate rose 1.1 percent; this year the increase in that period was 1.6 percent.

  4. crossroads says:

    It seems some are in a hurry-up and buy mode. I talked to people from Stafford in ocean co. and they were giving friends advice to buy that they haven’t seen prices this low in years. 3 bdrm ranches for 175k

  5. DL says:

    Isn’t it about time for the Inquirer’s annual piece on how shore rentals are disappearing fast.

  6. Clotpoll says:

    grim (1)-

    Having just sold my FIL’s vacation home in upstate NY, I can vouch for those horrific numbers.

    Also, the PMI guys have abandoned the vacation home market. They won’t touch anything under 80% LTV (meaning the buyer has to pony up a 25% DP, to cover the appraisal ding due to “declining market” status).

    After pricing a good 10% under a slew of DOA listings in the same community, we drew a cash buyer.

    Couldn’t sign that contract fast enough.

  7. Clotpoll says:

    I interviewed two agents for my FIL’s listing. Both live year-round in that community, and neither one knew anything about the PMI problems or even that their own community was classified as a declining market.

    I hired the one who asked me to fill her in on the info. The other agent actually told me I was full of crap when I interviewed her.

  8. Cindy says:

    http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2009/03/30/whos-still-investing-in-real-estate/

    Found this re: second homes –

    Who’s still investing in real estate?

    At least they admit it is still declining…

  9. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    Global economy to shrink 2.7%, OECD warns

    The world economy could shrink by 2.7% in 2009 as trade flows dry up and unemployment mounts in the deepest and most widespread downturn in more than 50 years, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said on Tuesday.

    The recession is almost certain to deepen this year before a “policy-induced recovery” begins to build momentum through 2010, the Paris-based think tank, which represents the world’s wealthiest nations, said in its interim economic outlook report as leaders of the Group of 20 industrialized and emerging economies prepare to meet Thursday in London.

  10. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    World Bank sees global economy shrinking in 2009

    The global economy is expected to contract in 2009 for the first time since World War II and the recovery next year is likely to be very fragile, the World Bank said Tuesday in its latest economic outlook. The global economy is expected to shrink by 1.7% in 2009 and grow 2.3% in 2010 after 1.9% growth in 2008. The economies of high-income countries are expected to contract 2.9%, while developing economies are expected to grow 2.1%, only about a third as fast as they grew in 2008.

  11. kettle1 says:

    Shore Guy says:
    March 30, 2009 at 8:35 pm

    ““Memorias_del_Saqueo”

    What was the link address?

    Memorias_del_Saqueo
    Argentina financial crisis of 2001
    http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-6758899307929087686

  12. Ellen says:

    #5 DL –

    Isn’t it about time for the Inquirer’s annual piece on how shore rentals are disappearing fast./I>

    You missed it. It ran Feb. 22.

    http://www.philly.com/philly/news/homepage/40042332.html

  13. Jim says:

    How do they know a house is a primary residence or a vacation house or an investment property? Where does that stat come from? Is it by the type of mortgage?

  14. DL says:

    Ellen, Ref 12: I smell BS. Reads like those builder/developer press releases the Inquirer prints in its real estate section that it tries to pass off as reporting.

  15. yome says:

    Is it really a good time to buy?
    Well maintained homes are still around.During the bubble people borrowed money to make their homes look like the rich and famous.With credit tightening nobody will be able to maintain their homes except the necessary things.Do you think Jo Blo will spend his cash savings to remodel his bathroom or kitchen?

  16. stan says:

    Jonny boy……who mentioned class warfare? Apparantly the burden of this recession is being placed solely on state workers….

    http://www.nj.com/mobile/articles/paper1.ssf?/base/news-13/123847303989840.xml&coll=1&thispage=2

  17. DL says:

    In the Exurbs, the American Dream Is Up for Rent

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123845433832571407.html

    Read a piece on another site about rent skimmers. Is there any way to tell if the owner is using the rent to pay or not pay the mortage before the repossession notice comes?

  18. Shore Guy says:

    ” At the Jersey Shore, investors accounted for 80 percent of all second homes purchased that year”

    If by “investors” they mean folks like Stu, Gator, and Grim who buy a place ot places to generate rental income, it seems a reasonable number for second homes. If, on the other hand, it is Mr. or Ms. Flip This House who were buying, look out below.

  19. DL says:

    The share of homes purchased as vacation residences or investment properties dropped to 30% of all sales in 2008 from 33% in 2007, according to the National Association of Realtors. However, amid continued gloom in the housing market, it raises the question of who still is investing in real estate.

    Vacation-home buyers appear to be taking advantage of reduced prices, and are more interested in long-term value than investment. According the NAR, vacation-home buyers plan to keep their property for a median of 12 years, with 58% planning not to sell for 11 years or more. Meanwhile, the median price of a vacation home was $150,000 last year, down from $195,000 in 2007. Under these circumstances, buying a second home in a downturn makes sense. Even if the market continues to struggle, the value of the home comes from its use not as an investment.

    http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2009/03/30/whos-still-investing-in-real-estate/

  20. Clotpoll says:

    DL (17)-

    Oh yeah. This is going to end really well.

  21. Clotpoll says:

    DL (17)-

    Oh yeah. This is going to end very well.

  22. yome says:

    #19 the value of the home comes from its use not as an investment.

    I think that is true if you paid cash on a 2nd home.
    If the 2nd home is paid for,how can you justify paying $1000.00 a month between tax and upkeeps.
    I know somebody that paid over 500 grand on a second home.His total out lay is almost $5000.00 a month.i asked him if the market comes back in 5 years he would have spent 300 grand,Do you think you can get that amount back?

    the value of the home comes from its use not as an investment.300 grand to use every weekend?

  23. Cindy says:

    http://brontecapital.blogspot.com/

    “Submission to the FDIC on the Legacy Loan Program”

    John Hempton – Bronte Capital – Offers a link for submissions to the FDIC with your concerns about the Legacy Loan program. He also posts his response.

  24. cooper says:

    Roubini’s on CNBC

  25. SG says:

    5 Wealthiest counties,

    1. Goochland County, Virginia $137, 045
    2. Teton County, Wyoming $126,998
    3. Fairfield County, Connecticut $117, 425
    4. Falls Church City, Virginia $116, 151
    5. Marin County, California $116,094

    http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news/business/Chester-County-21-on-US-Wealthiest-Counties-List.html

  26. Ellen says:

    #14 DL

    Absolutely. It’s become a joke between my husband and me. We’ve been successfully ignoring those articles for at least four years now and have been picking up really cheap, reduced, last minute rentals every summer. The deals have been getting better every year. Last summer we stayed a week in Avalon in June for less than a thousand dollars. I can’t remember the exact amount, but I remember we noted that investment property owners at the shore must be taking a bath.

  27. yikes says:

    Revelations says:
    March 30, 2009 at 11:52 pm

    Unfortunately, my wife is not that type, and will leave me if we don’t get one by summer.

    Sounds like a foundation for a great marriage. Patience wins out.

    tell her the grasshopper-ant story that everyone always talks about on here.

  28. Cindy says:

    http://washingtontimes.com/news/2009/mar/30/lennar-1q-loss-widens-to-1559m-as-revenue-drops-1/

    “Lennar 1Q loss widens to $155.9M”

    “Homebuilder Lennar Corp. said Monday its fiscal first-quarter losses ballooned 77 percent as it booked charged to adjust land and inventory values, while home deliveries and new orders plunged despite stepped-up incentives.”

  29. Stu says:

    Ellen(26):

    “have been picking up really cheap, reduced, last minute rentals every summer.”

    That is our plan for this year. On Sunday I checked availability for the July 4th week as our son is off from school and it looks like there is a ton of availability left. Most places have not lowered their prices at all from last year. This is a crock as the homes are worth less now, so renting should cost less as well. We’ll get our price in late June as no shore house investor will be willing to leave their investment vacant for the July 4th week. For what it’s worth, 4 year’s ago, to rent July 4th week usually required one to book a place in the prior Fall. It’s amazing what a few toxic assets can do to the economy.

  30. Clotpoll says:

    Cindy (28)-

    If Lennar is running a Ponzi, they’re not doing such a hot job of it.

  31. Cindy says:

    (30) Clot – They are still offering unbelievable prices and financing to clear their remaining inventory here. I bet they wish they never heard of the “Central Valley.” Too many builders flew in here all at once to pick up “cheap land.” I’m sure they rue the day…

  32. SG says:

    http://trac.syr.edu/tracirs/findings/aboutTP/tables/topaveagi07.html

    Goochland County Virginia $137,045 1
    Teton County Wyoming $126,998 2
    Fairfield County Connecticut $117,425 3
    Falls Church City Virginia $116,151 4
    Marin County California $116,094 5
    Hunterdon County New Jersey $111,348 6
    Somerset County New Jersey $110,012 7
    Morris County New Jersey $108,565 8
    Williamson County Tennessee $108,134 9
    Pitkin County Colorado $107,094 10

    3 NJ counties in top 10.

  33. Cindy says:

    http://www.housingwire.com/2009/03/30/viewpoint-the-latest-witch-hunt/

    Housing Wire – Viewpoint: The Latest Witch Hunt”

    Another view on recent articles about banks walking away from foreclosures.

  34. Clotpoll says:

    Cindy (31)-

    Shouldn’t be anything there but broccoli.

  35. kettle1 says:

    So the CEO of home depot makes 9.2 million while he lays off 7,000 workers. How many of those jobs could have been maintained if he was only paid 1 million? and really, who could complain about a 1 million $ salary, that is still about 25 times the average workers income if we assume that the average home depot worker makes about 40K/yr ( based on a quick google search).

    I am not advocating “eat the rich”, But i am advocating that major share holders should actually start to demand that executives behave in the best long term interest of the company as a whole and not in the interest of the executives bank accounts

  36. kettle1 says:

    So the CEO of home depot makes 9.2 million while he lays off 7,000 workers. How many of those jobs could have been maintained if he was only paid 1 million? and really, who could complain about a 1 million $ salary, that is still about 25 times the average workers income if we assume that the average home depot worker makes about 40K/yr ( based on a quick google search).

    I am not advocating “eat the rich”, But i am advocating that major share holders should actually start to demand that executives behave in the best long term interest of the company as a whole and not in the interest of the executives bank accounts

    Home Depot CEO earns $9.2 million in 2008, lays off 7000 workers
    http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2009/03/30/ap6230072.html

  37. comrade nom deplume says:

    Tax tip for the day: USG still challenging preservation easements.

    “The U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Illinois March 25 granted the government’s motion to disallow a $216,000 preservation easement deduction sought by Elizabeth Bruzewicz and her husband Howard Prossnitz related to a preservation facade easement on their home in Oak Park, Ill. (Bruzewicz v. United States, N.D. Ill., No. 07 C 4074, 3/25/09).

    The court granted the couple’s cross-motion to validate their $21,600 cash donation and ordered the government to refund a portion of the taxes and penalty attributable to that cash payment. The court also denied the couple’s motion to disallow the remaining tax deficiency and the remainder of the $14,904.20 penalty assessed against them.

    The couple’s residence, known as the “Orlando Blackmer House,” is located in the Frank Lloyd Wright-Prairie School of Architecture Historic District, an area containing 26 structures designed by Frank Lloyd Wright and over 60 additional buildings designed by members of the Prairie School

  38. kettle1 says:

    Clot,

    I posted an atricle a week or so ago about a woman who got stuck with a house she walked away from when the bank refused to foreclose. The article stated that see signed the deed over to the bank anyway.

    is that possible in any particular form or fashion? the article was very vague on exactly what she did, but apparently she somehow transferred ownership so that she was no longer liable to the city.

  39. Shore Guy says:

    Continued downward pressure on home prices, despite what the WH line that things will be better tomorrow:

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123849211128473261.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

    Of course, since tomorrow is always a day away….

  40. NJGator says:

    Question for all you realtors out there. How long does it normally take for a home to be updated in GSMLS once it goes Under Contract? There are 2 homes in my compiled Glen Ridge/Montclair listings that are still showing as active even though I was told anecdotally that they went UC over a week ago. Of course I was told that these listings went UC quickly so they “must have gone for over asking”.

    Just curious.

  41. Alap says:

    kettle,

    While I agree that $1 million would be more then enough, I don’t think that the excess $8.2 million should have been used to save those 7,000 laid off workers. Why keep on dead weight in a falling economy? They simply don’t need as many sales people anymore (not that you could ever find one in Home Depot anyway). The excess should have been saved instead of going to payroll for the CEO or 7,000 laid off employees.

  42. Alap says:

    WASHINGTON (AP) — A widely watched index shows American home prices dropped by the sharpest annual rate on record in January.

    The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller 20-city housing index released Tuesday tumbled by a record 19 percent from January 2008. It was the largest decline since the index started in 2000. The 10-city index dropped 19.4 percent, also a new record.

    All 20 cities in the report showed monthly and annual price declines.

    Prices in the 20-city index have plummeted 29 percent from their peak in summer 2006, while the 10-city index has fallen 30 percent. Prices are at levels not seen since late 2003.

  43. kettle1 says:

    nom,

    NPR did a piece this morning on the IRS “gathering intelligence” on foreign held accounts such as caymen accounts and the like. They must really be getting desperate. They claimed that the IRS loses about 100 billion per year due to offshore accounts.

  44. Clotpoll says:

    vodka (35)-

    Wake the fcuk up, man. We live in the best of all possible worlds. That CEO earned his pay.

    He is wealthy, therefore he is worthy. What is it Malcolm Gladwell said? Success is nothing more than an accumulation of advantages?

    Those underlings are expendable.

  45. Shore Guy says:

    Ket,

    I used to know a guy who used to travel to the Caymen Islands all the time bringing bags of cash to place offshore. For those with private jets, the task is made all the easier.

  46. Cindy says:

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123846484770972369.html

    Mortgage Rates Cut by Builders

    Here is a sample of what they are offering – 3.625%. They have to compete with so many foreclosures.

    (34) Clot “Shouldn’t be anything there but broccoli.”

    LOL – And strawberries, lettuce, almonds, grapes, cotton – You name it. You are right. We should be all about growing stuff.

    No body cared much when they ripped out old fig trees for a subdivision years ago. Now called “Fig Garden.”

  47. Clotpoll says:

    vodka (38)-

    Quitclaim deed. Got a feeling it could be very questionable in such an instance, since the beneficiary (I think) can refuse to accept title.

  48. kettle1 says:

    Alap,

    I dont necessarily disagree with you, i was trying to illustrate the current dysfunction in corporate management.

  49. Clotpoll says:

    Deeds must be acknowledged to be valid and recorded to be enforceable.

  50. Ellen says:

    #29 Stu –

    Sounds like the right strategy. We’ve finally sold our family on it. Last year, my sister rented an *oceanfront* in Brigantine the second week of August for $1500. Admittedly, it was a little dumpy, but in her mind that just made it a little more kid friendly, and the view more than made up for the older kitchen and bathrooms and ugly dorm lounge furniture.

  51. Clotpoll says:

    Cindy (46)-

    Does that mean everywhere on the highway I see an Olive Garden, there used to be olive trees?

    “No body cared much when they ripped out old fig trees for a subdivision years ago. Now called “Fig Garden.”

  52. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    “They claimed that the IRS loses about 100 billion per year due to offshore accounts.”

    Hmmm, $100B a year, and now they decide it’s something to look into?

  53. Shore Guy says:

    “Quitclaim deed. Got a feeling it could be very questionable in such an instance, since the beneficiary (I think) can refuse to accept title.”

    Equity would require someone be willing to accept the “gift.” Otherwise, folks who own toxic dumps, for example, could just quitclaim to random people or competitors and fre themselves of burdens while saddling others with them.

  54. ruggles says:

    40-they can keep the house listed as active until it closes even with a contract on it–gsmls absolutely allows this–happened on the house I bought last year so I called and asked. that way they can continue to show it and accept back up offers.

  55. Alap says:

    Kettle,

    Dysfunction and corporate management go together like peanut butter and jelly. I def. won’t argue with you on that one. And you would think that these CEO’s would pick up a newspaper from time to time and see all this bad press, and think to maybe delay their bonuses or, god forbid, not accept it…

    But hey, if I was gettin $9.2 million, I wouldn’t really give a crap what they said about me in the WSJ either probably…

  56. Cindy says:

    (51) Clot – “Does that mean everywhere on the highway I see an Olive Garden, there used to be olive trees?”

    Gosh Clot – Could be.:)

  57. kettle1 says:

    55 Alap

    if we really begin to descend into an argentina model, then those CEO’s may well spend a significant % of their incomes/ bonuses and buying armored cars and body guards for the whole family.

    At what point is it not worth the trouble?

    The smart CEO or executive would be playing a full court press PR game right now. Or setting up their Nompound in some south/central american country.

  58. Shore Guy says:

    So, CS down 19% YOY in Jan.

  59. Clotpoll says:

    Alap (55)-

    Now you’re getting somewhere. An old pal of mine calls this kind of comp “F-U” money.

    “But hey, if I was gettin $9.2 million, I wouldn’t really give a crap what they said about me in the WSJ either probably…”

  60. DL says:

    Did some one say Argentina?

    “Real estate tycoon Sam Zell, trying to restore his stature as an astute investor after his disastrous buyout of Tribune Co., has surfaced as an unlikely player in a controversy in Brazil over affordable housing.”

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123836991299767645.html

  61. Clotpoll says:

    vodka (57)-

    You and I should talk sometime about providing some “special” services for these CEO types.

    I have a feeling we might have something of value to offer.

  62. Clotpoll says:

    Sam Zell.

    Pant-up demand.

    Controversy.

    Brazil.

    Those dudes better check their wallets.

  63. DL says:

    “The New Jersey 101.5 Empty Wallet Convoy has collected thousands of wallets along the Garden State Parkway and New Jersey Turnpike to let Governor Corzine know there’s nothing left to pay.

    Now, we’re bringing the wallets to the Statehouse with the Empty Wallet Funeral Procession at high noon on Tuesday.

    All New Jersey taxpayers are invited to join the Jersey Guys as they march the caskets of empty wallets up the sidewalk and steps of the Statehouse.”
    http://www.nj1015.com/emptywalletconvoy.html

  64. Stu says:

    Kettle1:

    Last thing I said to the gator before we went to sleep last night was that I thought the income gap grew a lot less due to taxation changes since 1980 then the increase in executive compensation. Besides there not being enough capital left to pay the workers a fair wage that competes with inflation, but the worker gets raped in his 401K as the companies earnings are less than they should be.

    Of course, this is about as likely to change as politicians are willing to accept campaign finance reform.

    Was listening to a Parisian on Bloomberg this morning. The French did not get involved in sub-prime lending. They know their homes are not something to gamble with. When Tom Keene asked what their perception of America was, he said, “American’s are stupid.” Though he did say, that they still look to America to provide leadership to the world.

    Gotta love the French!

  65. Shore Guy says:

    ““Arresting the slide in home prices will be key to ending the recession,” John Silvia, chief economist at Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte, North Carolina, said before the report. ”

    From above. If so, then is it not in everyones’ interest to let prices fall as quickly as possible?

  66. kettle1 says:

    Clot, 61

    I have already seriously considered that as a business model. have some interesting ideas.

  67. DL says:

    Stu: Please tell me that is not the last thing you said to someone before you went to sleep :-)

    “Last thing I said to the gator before we went to sleep last night was that I thought the income gap grew a lot less due to taxation changes since 1980 then the increase in executive compensation.”

  68. Shore Guy says:

    New York 181.28 -1.2% -9.6%

  69. Cindy says:

    (66) Stu – You may need some others here to offer some pointers if that is “the last thing you said to Gator before you went to sleep last night.”….I’m just thinkin’ ….

  70. Stu says:

    So home prices are still dropping at an ‘accelerating’ rate. Yeah. I can see the light at the end of the tunnel. To bad the tunnel won’t be built for years.

  71. DL says:

    Home Prices in 19% Annual Drop; Worse Than Expected
    http://www.cnbc.com/id/29971583

    Hasn’t someone figured out that its a good time to expect the worst by now?

  72. Cindy says:

    (70) DL – LOL – Isn’t it funny – that just won’t do…

  73. Shore Guy says:

    “Last thing I said to the gator before we went to sleep last night was that I thought the income gap grew a lot less due to taxation changes since 1980 then the increase in executive compensation.”

    And some people say romance ends after the first child comes along.

  74. Stu says:

    I might have said something about love and that I was really tired. I had received no more than 4 hours of rest in the prior three days. All my doing of course.

    I also ripped into Dodd for a few minutes.

    I think that the entire population has been duped into thinking that the gubmint has their interests at heart. What a scam they are running.

    Social programs equal crumbs. Elections equal circuses.
    Meanwhile, the armored car is waiting at the service entrance.

  75. DL says:

    Stu: Never talk about love, Dodd, and income disparity in the same conversation when you’re really tired. One displaced word could have tragic consequences. Hope you’re feeling better.

  76. Shore Guy says:

    “I also ripped into Dodd for a few minutes.”

    Stu,

    Your passion knows no bounds.

  77. Stu says:

    “Your passion knows no bounds.”

    Well then definitely don’t ask me about the time I offered to make breakfast in bed.

  78. kettle1 says:

    The NJ real estate, guns, gold, compound, stroller, wine, investment, political, and romance report.

  79. Shore Guy says:

    Stu,

    I always thought the idea was to prepare breakfast elsewhere, bring it to bed, then make something else. How misguided I have been.

  80. cli says:

    http://nymag.com/news/business/55687/

    “How I helped build the bomb that blew up Wall Street”

    Really great story about how a guy built the software to facilitate MBS and structured finance

  81. Shore Guy says:

    Hey Gator, let us know if we need to take up a collection for a dustbuster and flannel PJs :)

  82. veto says:

    http://tinyurl.com/czp44v

    veto and kettle1 cs charts…

  83. ruggles says:

    85–you sure that’s not Atlantic City?

  84. kettle1 says:

    HAHAHAHA LMAO

    Spains housing/construction bubble may be the biggest in europe. Who hold all the mortgages on the huge # of empty homes and underwater mortgages? Spanish banks are in deep $hit. Oh and dont forget all the securities based on these mortgages.

    Spanish Bank Shares Plunge After Savings Bank Takeover

    Spanish banking stocks plunged Monday as a banking bailout announced this weekend indicated the country’s financial sector may not be as immune to the current financial crisis as previously thought.

    http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20090330-702979.html

  85. Clotpoll says:

    Stu (77)-

    Man, that is some sorry shit.

  86. Clotpoll says:

    You need a vacation. :)

  87. Stu says:

    Veto/Ket:

    Awesome charts.

  88. Shore Guy says:

    Kettle,

    As disfunctional as congress amy often seem to be, it stands as a model of efficiency and effectiveness compared to the mishmash of European government structures. It will be interesting to see if the EU, born, in its current incarnation, in a time of pleanty, will survive a severe crash.

  89. Stu says:

    “You need a vacation. :)”

    New Orleans Jazzfest in April is only 3 weeks away. It can’t come soon enough.

  90. Shore Guy says:

    Clot,

    I think I may read Mrs. Shore the lawnmower owner’s manual tonight. Well, not the whole thing, just the hot parts.

  91. kettle1 says:

    Shore, 92

    I agree. i think we will see the core EU states stay together, but i expect to see a significant portion of the “satellite” EU states break away.

    Basically i suspect it will look somewhat like the breakup of the soviet union

  92. Shore Guy says:

    Stu,

    Don’t forget to bring an economics treatise with you.

  93. Stu says:

    You guys only wish you had a wife who was one third as tolerant as the Gator is.

    :P

  94. Sean says:

    So housing recover is off again in the MSM?

  95. Clotpoll says:

    Shore (85)-

    Just like Slumdog Millionaire.

    Coming to a town near you.

  96. Shore Guy says:

    “You guys only wish you had a wife who was one third as tolerant as the Gator is.”

    Stu,

    I suspect that is what most men have.

  97. Clotpoll says:

    Stu (97)-

    The only responses I can muster are all uncouth. ;)

  98. Shore Guy says:

    Who was it last night who said his wife threatend to leave him if they did not buy a house by summer? Nothing speaks of tolerance more than a threat to walk out.

  99. 3b says:

    #67 Shore:Arresting the slide in home prices will be key to ending the recession,”

    gee,a nd I see it the exact opposite way. letting prices fall to their true value, and having people buy homes that they can comfortably afford, and spend money on fixing them up, new furniture etc. will help end the reccession.

    But hey I am not an economist from Wachovia.

  100. Clotpoll says:

    I got all you guys beat.

    My wife has never complained about all the time I spend here.

    She calls it my therapy.

    And, it’s probably time for me to toss a few bucks into the “therapist’s” jar.

    Hey, nothing is free.

  101. Shore Guy says:

    “So housing recover is off again in the MSM?”

    Maybe it happened when nobody was looking and now it is time to focuse elsewhere, like PROK and missile launches.

  102. Sean says:

    Anecdotal – In high school a teacher once told the class that when we grew older we all would be putting pillows over the heads of the elderly as they sleep.

    News from Bloomberg Today.

    //Quote
    Almost as gruesome is the news about Social Security’s finances. Social Security has for years been the near-term bright spot in the federal budget. Each year the program has raised $50 billion to $100 billion more in payroll taxes than it paid out in benefits. Sure, deficits were expected far off in the future, but the current program was on sound financial footing.

    Those days are, for the moment at least, behind us. According to the latest Congressional Budget Office estimate, the Social Security surplus will be only $3 billion in 2010. That number is almost surely too rosy, and the actual realization next year will be a big deficit. In February, according to data from the Social Security Office of the Actuary, the program paid out more in benefits than it collected in taxes and interest combined. There will be many more months like that before we are through. //Unquote

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=asbiybVqsYC0

  103. Sean says:

    grim #106 in moderation

  104. Shore Guy says:

    focue, even

  105. skep-tic says:

    my wife remains addicted to HGTV, despite being a RE doom and gloom convert. last night one of their shows (they are really all the same show with different names) featured a couple who were buying their first place in Phoenix. Their max monthly budget for PITI was $1400. This was a hard line to the extent that when it appeared that the house they wanted would run closer to $1500 per month, they would not have been able to do it. Also, they were doing FHA with 3% down (must have been filmed last year). House price was $210,000.

    Amazingly, they were driving around looking at houses in a 5 series BMW.

  106. Shore Guy says:

    or even focus, uggggg

  107. skep-tic says:

    FWIW, BMW is now offering 0.9% 60 months financing and will make your first two monthly payments on top of these. Makes me wonder what % of their business has gone to people overextending themselves like the HGTV couple

  108. Shore Guy says:

    “Amazingly, they were driving around looking at houses in a 5 series BMW.”

    What? Like anyonbe can expect them to look like their max budget is $1,400/month? C’mon! They have an image to maintain.

  109. Shore Guy says:

    Clearly, I cannot type.

  110. Hard Place says:

    An old pal of mine calls this kind of comp “F-U” money.

    That’s an old Wall Street saying… All of Wall Street giving the US govt a major F-U right now…

  111. Painhrtz says:

    Sean I would in a heartbeat

    All-

    Browsing MS office templates for on-boarding new employee checklists I came across this gem. enjoy

    http://office.microsoft.com/en-us/templates/TC300011791033.aspx?CategoryID=CT102530581033

  112. kettle1 says:

    Pain

    nice!

  113. Sean says:

    Euthanize the elderly, just like Logan’s Run.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=asbiybVqsYC0

  114. kettle1 says:

    Sean,

    from your article:

    It’s true that the CBO projects that the program will resume generating near-term surpluses once this recession is behind us, but that projection is excessively optimistic for three reasons.

    First, the CBO’s economic projections call for growth to resume next year at a healthy pace, something that seems more and more questionable given the persistent financial crisis.

    Permanent Changes

    Second, many individuals who retire early or go on disability in this crisis may not return to the workforce once the recession ends, so the higher payments are probably with us forever.

    Finally, Social Security just increased everyone’s benefits by 5.8 percent to cover the increase in the cost of living last year, the biggest increase since 1982. That adjustment jacks up benefits payments permanently.

  115. kettle1 says:

    Sean,

    mmmm Soilent green and a nice Chianti

  116. hughesrep says:

    117

    Christopher Buckley pitched that idea in a book a few years ago as well. It’s OK if you have time to kill on a short flight.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boomsday_(novel)

  117. Shore Guy says:

    “Finally, Social Security just increased everyone’s benefits by 5.8 percent to cover the increase in the cost of living last year,”

    Increased payments? In deflationary times?

  118. chicagofinance says:

    kettle1 says:
    March 31, 2009 at 9:58 am
    The NJ real estate, guns, gold, compound, stroller, wine, investment, political, and romance report.

    ket: DM?

  119. Stu says:

    “DM?”

    Infatuation?

  120. still_looking says:

    can someone point me in the direction of where to find real unemployment numbers?

    thanks in advance,

    sl

  121. Stu says:

    “can someone point me in the direction of where to find real unemployment numbers?”

    I suggest you camp out at the local unemployment office for a month with a counter in your hand.

    or else, this is the best you’ll find…

    http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data

  122. Shore Guy says:

    An off-topic post, this one has to do with real estate:

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/29962475

  123. still_looking says:

    stu, 124 thanks!

    sl

  124. Herring123 says:

    Which NJ towns do you think are in the deepest financial trouble?

  125. Shore Guy says:

    Any of them with a public pension or healthcare obligation.

  126. W8TING says:

    Does anybody have any insight or thoughts about the Port Liberte community in Jersey City?

  127. Herring123 says:

    Interesting, I’d have guessed more those with union problems, i.e. police, fire, teachers, etc. Which towns have crazy pension and/or health care obligations?

  128. Shore Guy says:

    All of them.

  129. kettle1 says:

    SL

    unemployment #’s for state or fed?

    for the real # look at U6. you may estimate u^ to a fairly high degree of confidence by multiplying U3 * 1.77

    Virtually all unemployment #’s you commonly see reported are U3 unless otherwise stated

    you can also take a look at this

    http://maldream.blogspot.com/2009/02/u3-and-u6-unemployment-update-2.html

  130. Shore Guy says:

    We have underfunded the pension system and have such a bubble of expenses approaching that every town is going to take a hit, well, less the towns than the property owners, and King Jon and his legislative minions seem unwilling or unable to muster the courage to deal with the issue. Hence, we will all be paying through the nose at some point because of their failure to act now.

  131. zieba says:

    RE: 130

    The words overpriced and extinct come to mind.

  132. Stu says:

    Port Liberte would be much more awesome if there was any retail around and if the marine scrap yard with its giant noisy cranes were not location across the street. Otherwise, the units are beautiful and offer excellent access to the Greenville section.

  133. W8TING says:

    #136 – What do you mean by extinct?

  134. Herring123 says:

    Well, it looks like in spite of outrageous property taxes, all towns are at least capable of paying their current obligations. Which towns do you think are most likely to experience a tax revolt and/or file for bankruptcy?

  135. Shore Guy says:

    Nom,

    I think this shows that B.O. threw the UAW under the bus:

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/29972893

  136. veto says:

    CS NY Metro at 181 in Jan 2009, equal to October 2004 prices. Thats still bubble high.
    I have to admit im shocked nj has held up so well thus far. The correction is progressing but not nearly as fast as i hoped. Its painful to see houses selling for prices near 2005 levels. For a first time buyer waiting on the sidelines, this is like watching paint dry while being chinese water tortured.

    Month NY CS YOY Change
    Oct-07 205.52 -4.09%
    Nov-07 204.36 -4.61%
    Dec-07 202.08 -5.48%
    Jan-08 200.44 -5.80%
    Feb-08 198.29 -6.69%
    Mar-08 196.51 -7.48%
    Apr-08 194.73 -7.98%
    May-08 194.22 -7.74%
    Jun-08 194.74 -7.04%
    Jul-08 193.7 -7.04%
    Aug-08 193.48 -6.61%
    Sep-08 191.66 -7.13%
    Oct-08 189.68 -7.71%
    Nov-08 186.54 -8.72%
    Dec-08 183.57 -9.16%
    Jan-09 181.28 -9.56%

  137. Shore Guy says:

    ” GM has offered bondholders 8 cents on the dollar in cash, 16 cents on the dollar in new, unsecured debt; and a 90 percent stake in the automaker, said a second person with knowledge of the discussions who asked not to be named because of their confidential nature.”

    I take it this means existing shareholders can use their stock certificates as firestarters.

  138. Herring123 says:

    Even 8 cents plus equity is too much – the bondholders have no bargaining position. What is GM thinking giving them a dime? GM’s basically holding a gun to their head.

  139. Shore Guy says:

    Sure they do, they can refuse to settle for less than 100% and hope for a liquidation in BK court. They will be at the head of the line for repayment.

  140. Frank says:

    Go SRS….

    In a foreclosure auction today, the John Hancock Tower – a marquee building in Boston – traded at $660MM to Normandy Real Estate Partners. That same property was appraised for $1.3BN in 2006 and traded for $935MM in 2003. This is VERY negative for commercial real estate. At face, it looks like even top quality assets are down 50% from their peak, but that forgets the value of the financing that Normandy now gets to assume. There will still be a $640.5MM mortgage on the property at a rate of 5.6%. What is the value of being able to get a 97% LTV loan at 5.6% these days? Let’s say you can get a 60% LTV mortgage ($400MM) at 8%, and the other $240MM in mezz financing (which has no chance of getting done in this market) could hypothetically get done at 15%. That combination produces a weighted average financing cost of almost 11%. A 5.6% mortgage at 11% yield is about a 70 $px, which means the value of assuming the existing financing on the Hancock Tower is close to $190MM. The real clearing level for the top commercial property in Boston was only $470MM – down 65% from 2006 levels and down 50% from 2003 levels. If we assume 2008 NOI numbers are still accurate, this would be a 9.5% cap rate adjusted for the financing. Without adjusting for the value of financing, the purchase price of $660MM looks like a 6.7% cap rate and $383/sqft – rich, relative to 1540 Broadway (NY office vs Boston office) recently clearing at ~$400/sqft. **The main takeaway: property values are down A LOT more than people think, especially when considering the implied value of financing. Caveat Emptor.** On the brightside for holders of GG9, the #1 loan now has a better sponsor with a lighter debt load. Unfortunately, not every CMBS loan had a 50% LTV to 2006/2007 levels like John Hancock Tower…Severities will be much higher for the majority of 75+% LTV CMBS loans.

  141. Frank says:

    grim,
    #145 is in moderation, what gives???

  142. still_looking says:

    ket, thanks!

    sl

  143. PA Bound says:

    (36) Home Depot CEO earns $9.2 million in 2008, lays off 7000 workers

    This is why the top income tax rate should go back to 90% for income over $3.5 million or so.

  144. 2 Cents says:

    “I think this shows that B.O. threw the UAW under the bus:”

    Oh no! Does that mean I have keep my “Barack Marx Obama” T-shirt in the closet for a while longer?

  145. PA Bound says:

    (52) “They claimed that the IRS loses about 100 billion per year due to offshore accounts.”

    Hmmm, $100B a year, and now they decide it’s something to look into?

    New administration = new priorities

  146. Justin says:

    Beyond AIG: A Bill to let Big Government Set Your Salary

    But now, in a little-noticed move, the House Financial Services Committee, led by chairman Barney Frank, has approved a measure that would, in some key ways, go beyond the most draconian features of the original AIG bill. The new legislation, the “Pay for Performance Act of 2009,” would impose government controls on the pay of all employees — not just top executives — of companies that have received a capital investment from the U.S. government. It would, like the tax measure, be retroactive, changing the terms of compensation agreements already in place. And it would give Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner extraordinary power to determine the pay of thousands of employees of American companies.

    http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/politics/Beyond-AIG-A-Bill-to-let-Big-Government-Set-Your-Salary-42158597.html

  147. Sean says:

    re: #146 Shore- They will be at the head of the line for repayment.

    Dirty little secret o Chap 11 Bankrupcy not mentioned in the MSM is here in the USA filing for Chap 11 has the advantage of enabling the firm to obtain “debtor-in-possession” financing, which is senior to all other types of debt. New creditors (US Tapxpayer for example) are therefore willing to step in and fund operations while restructuring takes place.

    This is the route AIG, GM, Crysler and the rest of the insolvent to big to fail companies should go, but our leaders do not have the political will to do so, hense the use of the Japaneses style Zombie bailout.

  148. Frank says:

    Go SRS….

    In a foreclosure auction today, the John Hankock Tower – a marquee building in Boston – traded at $660MM to Normandy Real Estate Partners. That same property was appraised for $1.3BN in 2006 and traded for $935MM in 2003. This is VERY negative for commercial real estate. At face, it looks like even top quality assets are down 50% from their peak, but that forgets the value of the financing that Normandy now gets to assume. There will still be a $640.5MM mortgage on the property at a rate of 5.6%. What is the value of being able to get a 97% LTV loan at 5.6% these days? Let’s say you can get a 60% LTV mortgage ($400MM) at 8%, and the other $240MM in mezz financing (which has no chance of getting done in this market) could hypothetically get done at 15%. That combination produces a weighted average financing cost of almost 11%. A 5.6% mortgage at 11% yield is about a 70 $px, which means the value of assuming the existing financing on the Hankock Tower is close to $190MM. The real clearing level for the top commercial property in Boston was only $470MM – down 65% from 2006 levels and down 50% from 2003 levels. If we assume 2008 NOI numbers are still accurate, this would be a 9.5% cap rate adjusted for the financing. Without adjusting for the value of financing, the purchase price of $660MM looks like a 6.7% cap rate and $383/sqft – rich, relative to 1540 Broadway (NY office vs Boston office) recently clearing at ~$400/sqft. **The main takeaway: property values are down A LOT more than people think, especially when considering the implied value of financing. Caveat Emptor.** On the brightside for holders of GG9, the #1 loan now has a better sponsor with a lighter debt load. Unfortunately, not every CMBS loan had a 50% LTV to 2006/2007 levels like John Hankock Tower…Severities will be much higher for the majority of 75+% LTV CMBS loans.

  149. 3b says:

    3142 veto: I know it is painful, feel the same way at times.

    But it woul be even more painfule if you had paid those close to 2005 asking prices.

    I belive prices in our area take a big leg down this Spring/Summer sellingg season, nothing scientific, just my opinion.

    Keep in mind that many sellers in Nj towns, are in deep, deep denial, much worse than the houisng bust/recession of the early 90’s. That to mse says alot.

    I am alos amazed at the mnay homes that I see on the market in my area, that have been lavishly updated over the last few years and are now for sale.

    Of course you have job transfer divorce etc. However in many instances I would suspect that the owners can no longer affod them, and hence are waiting for that just one magical buyer out there who will give them their fantasty asking price.

  150. Stu says:

    (52) “They claimed that the IRS loses about 100 billion per year due to offshore accounts.”

    Sure. Wanna bet that number is closer to a trillion than it is to a billion?

  151. chicagofinance says:

    Herring123 says:
    March 31, 2009 at 11:39 am
    Which NJ towns do you think are in the deepest financial trouble?

    BRANCHBURG

  152. Herring123 says:

    It’s my understanding that GM has very little secured debt, see http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2009/03/30/the-end-game-for-gm-bondholders, and that the bondholders would get basically wiped out in a bankruptcy after any DIP loan (if any, so-called “DIP Financing” has basically dried up as a lot of lenders, including the biggest, GE, have exited the market), secured debt, and administrative costs get repaid.

  153. Stu says:

    “GM will cover payments for those GM car buyers for up to 24 months, according to LaNeve.

    GM will make up to nine payments of $500 each to qualifying customers. Consumers must qualify for state unemployment to be eligible for the program. The program starts April 1 and runs until April 30.”

    Buyers need credit ya dolts! Those with the means to buy a car in cash have the good credit to easily afford payments if they lost their job. Those who wouldn’t buy a new car because they fear the axe is coming don’t qualify for a loan anyhow.

    Detroit needs some serious help!

    Time to shut both of them down and have a new lean mean company emerge. This is the only solution. Fiat ain’t gonna happen.

  154. Herring123 says:

    Whoops, I take it back, I didn’t realize that there was $45 billion in secured debt. Yikes!

  155. sas says:

    “cayman tax havens”

    the cayman islands are retail, old news.
    some bloke with several hundred thousand can get a haven.

    if you want to know where the real financial/big money movements go, I would look under that rock.

    I ain’t gonna say where as I don’t want my head on a plate by the little trolls (they know who they are, and so do I).

    but, here is a little hint, I would first look at Ivy League Endowments, sniff…sniff…. Harvard.

    yes, more locations… but you can go fish.

    ta ta..
    SAS

  156. Nicholas says:

    I got all you guys beat.

    My wife has never complained about all the time I spend here.

    I quote, “Can’t you go back to your computer thingy and stop bothering me?”

  157. sas says:

    opps, that should read:

    “if you want to know where the real financial/big money movements go, I would NOT look under that rock”

    SAS

  158. sas says:

    “I quote, “Can’t you go back to your computer thingy and stop bothering me?””

    ha ha…

    thats gotta hurt.

    :)
    SAS

  159. comrade nom deplume says:

    [141] shore,

    We’ll see. Game ain’t over yet.

    [155] stu,

    That number has been thrown about carelessly for about a year now. Fact is, no one knows. Joint Committee released a report today on evasion but haven’t been able to download it. But BO has been on a full court press to put offshore finance out of business, legitimate or otherwise. It won’t stop evasion, or even slow it down. And no, I am not explaining how I would do that.

    Kettle,

    Seems you have been using Nompound more than I have lately.

  160. comrade nom deplume says:

    [161] sas,

    When you want to start your own private foundation, we can talk.

  161. Clotpoll says:

    chi (156)-

    If you see the Branchburg municipal building up in smoke (locals call it the Taj Mahal), you’ll know who did it.

  162. A.West says:

    Interesting chart of the Fed’s balance sheet transformation, with accompanying analysis.

    http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2009/03/the_feds_new_ba.html

  163. kettle1 says:

    NBom,

    Nompund is a better description then compound, as a compound is often interpreted to have religious or militant aspects. A Nompound is more of a financial and social Plan B

  164. Sean says:

    re: #162 -SaS tell me if I am getting warm.

    Representations of “offshore banking” may be entirely fictitious. One example of a “fictitious bank” would be the BCCI, which recorded lots of large transactions with its Bahamas branch while in fact the BCCI had no charter in the Bahamas and no physical presence there. The Bahamas Branch was merely a “cyber bank”, a separate set of books kept on a BCCI computer in Miami.

    A huge international legal battle was fought over the BCCI banking scam and eventually the case was dropped in 2005, with little or no repercussions.

  165. Shore Guy says:

    In Seattle, housing prices ar back to July 2005 levels.

    http://www.seattlepi.com/local/404450_housing31.html

  166. Shore Guy says:

    Nom,

    BTW, I never got an e-mail from you.

  167. Stu says:

    Shore:
    Doesn’t it feel like it was just yesterday when the Northwest housing prices were still increasing as Florida, Nevada, Michigan and Los Angeles were imploding?

  168. danzud says:

    Thanks to BHO…..about GM

    ” I Can Haz Warrantiez!!!!!!! ”

    That would be really great except for all the cars that are gonna roll off the lines with three different sized tires on them and a lot of hoses missing…..

    But so what, I got a US gov guaranteed warranty!!!!!!! Which means what, I have a right to go twenty times to a mechanic who doesn’t want to file government paperwork and fight with a bureaucrat about how much he should get paid to fix a burned out bulb on my new Aveo.

    I might just pass on that GM thing.

  169. A short article over at NYMag on the collapse of the Harlem market.
    For those who haven’t been following; Harlem was a very very hot area in the past few years and looked like it was finally being reborn. Then things crashed, FTFA;

    In West Harlem this past quarter, not a single deal was struck.

    Hopefully it won’t slide all the way back to the 70’s. There are some very pretty buildings there.

  170. All Hype says:

    Let’s sky the market boys, it’s the end of the quarter! The quarterly reports need to look good.

    Good Lord, the markets are so manipulated it is not even funny.

    It’s going to be a long spring and summer, let’s see how the market does after earnings season.

  171. All Hype says:

    Here is a great start to 2QTR2009….

    Fortis loses 37 billion….

    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/01/business/global/01fortis.html?_r=1&partner=rss&emc=rss

  172. Stu says:

    “It’s going to be a long spring and summer, let’s see how the market does after earnings season.”

    No, let’s see how the market does during Earnings season. Alcoa is next Tuesday right?

    I have noticed a pattern over the last 3 quarters where the market seems to rally (maybe on speculation) in the quiet periods and nosedive during the earning periods. Has anyone else here noticed this as well?

    I’m guessing that all of the future earning estimates that are revised downwards during the quarterly announcements probably have something to do with it.

    Of course, I haven’t tried to chart this.

  173. Stu says:

    I just looked at a chart of the US markets and this pattern seems to be in place for about the last 8 quarters. The bulk of the reports come out the last week in April and the first week in May. Look at a chart for yourself and count back at three month intervals.

    Disclaimer: Could simply be causation.

  174. yikes says:

    kettle1 says:
    March 31, 2009 at 9:13 am

    nom,

    NPR did a piece this morning on the IRS “gathering intelligence” on foreign held accounts such as caymen accounts and the like. They must really be getting desperate. They claimed that the IRS loses about 100 billion per year due to offshore accounts.

    looked on the site for this, nothing. eager to hear the clip

  175. Sean says:

    Get out your Puke Buckets.

    FYI for the shorts out there next few days could see a squeeze.

    1) Barney Says he want uptick rule back in and SEC to vote on April 8th.

    2) FASB – Mark to Market vote is scheduled for April 2nd.

    3) Dodd and his 500 Billion FDIC borrowing authority for the new Trash in Cash out program is proceeding.

    Also seems Barney is flagellating himself in front of the 800 or so bankers at the American Bankers Association conference in Washington DC.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Lawmaker-eyes-recoupment-mark-market/story.aspx?guid={D2A8A17D-30E2-4695-8FD4-3F318CCB0BF1}

  176. kettle1 says:

    The college bubble is starting to burst…

    Laid Off, But College Costs Keep Adding Up

    March 31, 2009 · Dean and Terry Stanton have two sons in college, and their daughter is planning to start in the fall. They had the financing all figured out until a couple of months ago. The Stantons talk with Renee Montagne about how they are juggling college costs now that Dean has been laid off from his job in Silicon Valley.

    http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=102549474

  177. kettle1 says:

    Yikes,

    couldnt find it on NPR, but here is the same story from NYT

    I.R.S. to Offer Deal to Offshore Tax Evaders
    http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/03/26/irs-to-offer-deal-to-offshore-tax-evaders/

  178. 2 Cents says:

    Guys, be careful. The mother of all Bi-Indices has spoken.

    “While we have had a great deal of bad news on banks, we think there is still more to come,” said Goldman Sachs strategist Abby Joseph Cohen in a Bloomberg Radio interview from New York. “We’re certainly not yet in the clear — whether in the U.S. or around the world.”

  179. kettle1 says:

    Sean,

    if i was really a gambling man, I would buy a chunk of bank stocks, wait for the pump from the coming rule changes and then dump them.

  180. HEHEHE says:

    You guys don’t think the pump is already priced in?

  181. kettle1 says:

    HEHE

    I could be way off base, but i think we could see a spike in some financials when the rule changes are first made. It wont last, but it could be a good spike upwards.

    Putting a prom dress on a corpse doesnt change the reality of the situation

  182. veto says:

    college bubble, i like this subject thanks for bringing it up.
    Just my opinion but the college bubble will likely evolve rather than collapse. i agree we have huge problems especially student loans but the future is education so i actually see a huge boom in higher ed in the coming decade especially when our new administration decides that college is a right, not an option. Not to mention a competitive global economy will make a bachelors degree mandatory. Already we are seeing huge shift towards mediocre publics like rutgers, whereas the expensive decent privates like seton hall farleigh and stevens will see lower applications as people start weighing the cost to benefits.
    We’ll probably see increased govt funding for higher ed, we already got the new $4k per year tax credit, i think for lower income though not totally sure on that one. I also see a shift toward paired down version of colleges. Alot of the college experience is dorms and libraries, bookstores and sports programs and they all costs millions to buy and maintain. Online classes for example have improved tremendously and you can get a very effective education through an online course now, you can text or email questions and interact just like in a real classroom. Very soon we’ll see colleges that are bare bones, only classrooms, no gyms, no cafeterias, no dorms, just show up and learn and go home or maybe just log in for most of the lectures and never leave home altogether.
    NJ is another story, this state spends the most on k-12 ecucation and then ships most of its students across the country causing huge brain drain. We give our colleges some of the lowest state aid in the country and that has caused our colleges to borrow more to keep up with other colleges accross the country, As a result most of our colleges are highly levered and forced to raise theor tuition. I guess we dont realize that college kids tend to stay where they went to school and ist like we are purposely forcing out the most educated population.

  183. HEHEHE says:

    “I could be way off base, but i think we could see a spike in some financials when the rule changes are first made. It wont last, but it could be a good spike upwards.”

    I just sort of figured it would be a buy the rumor sell the news sort of thing. We’ll see

  184. kettle1 says:

    hehe 191

    a very real possibility, but i am guessing we see a pop based primarily on how hard the Gov is trying to prop things up. I think they are going to twist arms and call in favors left and right so that they can can say “see we fixed part of the problem”

    It would make for some great circus, and that is what they are aiming for right now.

  185. HEHEHE says:

    What do they do after that doesn’t work?

  186. Sean says:

    Pump is only 20% so far based upon FASB news. Suspending Mark to Market has to be worth allot more for the top 5 banks.

    “”The changes proposed on March 16 to fair-value, also known as mark-to-market accounting, would allow companies to use “significant judgment” in valuing assets and reduce the amount of writedowns they must take on so-called impaired investments, including mortgage-backed securities. A final vote on the resolutions, which would apply to first-quarter financial statements, is scheduled for April 2.””

    FASB was just lambasted last week by Congress and they are voting I believe April 2nd.

    More info.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601091&sid=awSxPMGzDW38&refer=india

  187. gg says:

    Anyone realtors know SP of MLS # 2580350

  188. Clotpoll says:

    vodka (189)-

    Buy the rumor, sell the news.

  189. Clotpoll says:

    gg (195)-

    That listing shows as withdrawn.

  190. chicagofinance says:

    grim unmod

  191. Clotpoll says:

    In more exciting news, I just posed as the owner of the mortgage company in my building.

    To FHA.

    No big deal. I know people who’ve done far, far worse. :)

  192. confused in nj says:

    I wonder how many people realize that, “Mark to Market” helped expose “The Wizard of Ponzi”, behind the curtain in OZ.

  193. gg says:

    thanks 197, I saw people moving in when I drove by. weird.

  194. r says:

    Radio station 101.5 FM held a mock “funeral for the middle class” today in Trenton, delivering two caskets filled with hundreds of empty wallets to the steps of the Statehouse.

    The event mixed state politics and rock-and-roll style, with demonstrators handing out anti-Corzine stickers while large speakers pumped out Twisted Sister’s 1984 hit “We’re Not Going to Take It.”

    http://taxdayteaparty.com/

  195. All Hype says:

    I was at the Home Depot buying a new grill this afternoon, 4 people helped me pick it out. No one else was in the Seasonal Department.

    Where’s the recession???

  196. comrade nom deplume says:

    [170] kettle,

    True. Praying is optional.

    [173]shore

    Email? Do I have your email address? Been a busy month, so what am I missing?

  197. Gooch says:

    [190] veto
    “mediocre publics like rutgers”

    Let’s talk about Rutgers and its mediocrity:
    I started in the theater program at Mason Gross, which is usually ranked in the top 5 of theater programs nation-wide (I remember Rutgers trading places with Tisch and Yale while I was there). I finished in the Poli Sci program, a part of which includes academics from the Eagleton institute of politics, a nationally recognized part of the university.
    The engineering school is often compared favorably to MIT in terms of the quality of the students it produces. The students from engineering have no trouble getting a job with a good firm out of school.
    Cook college (or whatever it is called since the merger) is an excellent land-grant school (ag/field), with respected programs in food science and environmental studies. (as an aside – A good friend of mine who was a Cook student spent an entire summer artificially inseminating cows. She is a marine biologist in Miami)
    I am pretty sure that Rutgers Law in Newark is considered to be a good school. I know that the Masters in Public Administration at Newark is excellent.
    Finally, my wife’s younger brother is at Hopkins (and paying for it), but only because of a highly specialized program in Bio-chem. If he decides the field is not for him, he knows that he will be happy academically in the honors program.

    Big does not mean mediocre – instead, it means offering a huge range of studies, some top notch (library science), some average (english), and some that are frankly bad (no one chooses RU for its comp-sci program). From what I have seen over the past decade among those who I graduated high school with (1995), there has been no difference in success v failure between those who went to ivys (friends who graduated harvard, columbia, cornell, brown) and those who went to state schools (Rutgers, Maryland and Binghamton)

    I think that as a country we under-invest in public education. While I have limited experience with other models, the university education provided in countries such as Canada, GB, and Israel is excellent with families spending a fraction of what families in NJ are expected to pay for Rutgers.

  198. 3b says:

    The value is in the land people, come on, just like the listing says.

    Bring your builder!!!!

    http://www.njmls.com/cf/details.cfm?mls_number=2914261&id=999999

  199. comrade nom deplume says:

    Read one of the mainstream business mags this morning during my workout, and one of the things that they recommended stocking up on in the event of a depression economy was booze.

    Particularly the nips (1.5 oz “airplane” bottles) as these would be useful for barter in the apocalyptic future.

    Also saw a lot of references to “Mad Max” in describing a future California.

    Doom and Gloom investing isn’t just for NJREReport readers anymore.

  200. 3b says:

    #190 veto: I agree to a point. But I can tell you very few if any are staying in lets say Syracuse after graduation.

  201. comrade nom deplume says:

    One of my long-held early warning indicators that we are approaching societal breakdown would be the advent of major car manufacturers offering antiballistic protection as an option, thus going after the cottage industry of retrofitting performed by companies like Kroll-Ogara and others.

    Seems I have not been paying attention as one major manufacturer has been offering them here for years:

    http://www.popularmechanics.com/automotive/new_cars/1266611.html?page=2

  202. HEHEHE says:

    “Read one of the mainstream business mags this morning during my workout”

    Doesn’t sound like much of a workout.

  203. comrade nom deplume says:

    [209] redux

    I REALLY have not been paying attention as american manufacturers have been in on this as well:

    http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qn4188/is_20030329/ai_n11385226

  204. comrade nom deplume says:

    [210] HE,

    It wasn’t. But I do what I can, when I can.

  205. HEHEHE says:

    I was hoping to get more of a rise out of you than that:)

  206. HEHEHE says:

    I am thinking of moving out of Hoboken into the city. Would that be a bad move? Can I still submit comments here?

  207. livinginpa says:

    Not to be a total tool, but isn’t the phrase “pent up demand”?

  208. comrade nom deplume says:

    [213] HE

    Okay, how’s this?

    I’ve met you, and I’m bigger than you. ;-)

  209. comrade nom deplume says:

    More on the nature of total political warfare:

    (CNN) — One of the country’s largest labor unions criticized President Obama Tuesday for pushing GM CEO Rick Wagoner to resign, but not handing a pink slip to Bank of America CEO Ken Lewis.

    SEIU President Andy Stern, whose union conglomerate endorsed Obama in the Democratic primary, said it “defies logic, common-sense, and responsible governance to punish the auto industry while letting financial institutions off the hook.”

    “Both Rick Wagoner and Ken Lewis sunk large public companies — putting thousands out of work and toppling the American economy — while accepting billions in taxpayer bailouts. Yet only Wagoner got a pink slip,” Stern said in a statement. “Firing GM’s CEO is a positive step towards restructuring a broken industry. But the Obama Administration needs to apply the same lesson to the financial sector: replace failed leadership and shepherd the industry into a new era.”

    The SEIU is also circulating a petition to its two million members calling on the president to ask for Lewis’s resignation.

    Stern also specifically criticized Lewis for “actively fighting” the Employee Free Choice Act, the pending legislation that would make it easier for employees to unionize.”

    ___________

    Just so it’s clear—they are petitioning the USG to seek the ouster of a CEO because he opposes pro-union legislation. Otherwise, why would a union head call for the ouster of a CEO in an industry unrelated to unions (besides the obvious antipathy for executives and the wealthy).

  210. A.West says:

    livinginpa:

    I forget the original reference, but there was a day when some real estate bulls accidentally and stupidly said “pant up demand”. Around the same time, somebody said “crushed valor”. Both are now inside jokes at NJRE.

    Can anyone find the original source for the hillarity?

  211. veto says:

    Gooch says: I know that the Masters in Public Administration at Newark is excellent.

    Gooch, im familiar with the newark masters in public admin, i graduated with that degree last year. i thought it was pretty mediocre but schools like rutgers are mediocre on purpose so they can provide aducation to the massess at a decent price. Some programs are more competitive and successful than others. Mediocre doesnt mean its bad.

  212. Gooch says:

    veto:

    Interesting about the MPA – I know other graduates from a few years back who would disagree :)

    As for program quality, part of the problem is, how does one judge? The only standard I can think of that makes any sense, but that is also VERY subjective, is to ask alumni a question – based on your definition of success, did your school prepare you to succeed?

  213. #218 – I forget the original reference

    IIRC it was from statement by bi in mid 2007 about how the home market would turn around later in the year due to “pant up demand”.

  214. “crushed valor”

    That was made by John about the interior of some car he claimed to have owned at one point.

  215. Outofstater says:

    222 Tosh – Wasn’t “crush valor” the interior of John’s father’s limo that Ted Kennedy threw up in one night?
    Livinginpa – it is a requirement here to say “pant up demand” and, when one is the first to post on a new thread, one must say “Frist” not “first.” Are there any other rules of the neighborhood that I’m forgetting? Oh wait, don’t mention onions – AT ALL!

  216. #224 – Was it? It may very well have been. All of John’s posts have kind of merged together in my head into an ur-post of bad spelling, horridly out-of-date references and teen-age one-upmanship.

  217. Pat says:

    “pant up demand” as a reference is always excruciatingly comical to me. I popped over here and saw bi’s post, and had just finished reading a comment elsewhere about W. Buffet’s famous tide goes out/swimming naked without pants.

    So, I sat and pondered whether pant-up demand meant that those who still had their pants up when the tide went out would be the demand resurgence leaders, or if pant-up demand meant that the idiots swimming naked would somehow pull themselves up by their balls, get their pants back on, and keep buying.

  218. Pat says:

    O.K., I’m hungry..Buffett

  219. Pat says:

    tosh, I have to be honest and say that I completely enjoy John’s posts, and think somebody should sign him for a weekly commentary of bad spelling, 70’s references, and poor taste.

  220. livinginpa says:

    Thanks all. I know to stay away from making any onion reference, and even noted the use of Frist. But the pant up demand thing got me. Can’t wait for Lent to be over. John is due back and he seems to provide some good lines.

  221. veto says:

    Gooch Says:
    Interesting about the MPA – I know other graduates from a few years back who would disagree :)

    I know alot of people who loved the program. I would say its mediocre, not bad. For the price maybe you can say excellent.
    Large part of judging a college would be student quality, even if they just got high test scores at least they worked hard or are gifted mentally or have good memories, ha. Most of the material in an mpa is basic and hard to get creative about but learning is done more with other students now, no longer does the teacher just talk at the students for 2 hours. Teachers are now being trained to drudge up participation and discussion about the assigned readings so that students are asking questions and learning from eachother in the classroom while the teacher is simply guiding the conversations to keep everyone from going on tangents. If you have alot of smart students in your class, it makes the experience more valuable.

  222. Revelations says:

    My comment yesterday about my wife leaving me if I don’t find a house was partially joking. She would stick by me, but very disappointed.

  223. Revelations says:

    Also, in defence of the wifey,

    We’ve got a little peanut on the way, due in August. My wife’s actually been a real trooper… living in 1bed/1bath apts since we married in ’03. The reason we didn’t buy in ’04 was b/c I could not fathom how the growth that was occurring in home values could be sustained at the pace I was witnessing. I began a “we should wait until prices are more tame” mantra in early ’04 and she was (understandably) sick of it by 2008. He11, I was sick of hearing myself say it. I was always optimistic about the next year. It appears I was right about the sustainment thing, but am not at all smug about the lifestyle sacrifices we made trying to save at rate to get ahead of prices. I was like crawling up the ‘down’ escalator… Now prices are turning, and she wants out. As there is simply no room in our apt for the 2.5 of us, I don’t blame her.

  224. Outofstater says:

    About GM – Wouldn’t a bankruptcy be an “event” that would trigger payment of all the credit default swaps on its bonds? Wasn’t that John’s argument as to why the gov’t could never let that happen? Because the counterparties would be unable to pay out and so would fail?

  225. Shore Guy says:

    It is interesting how governors, senators, members of the assembly and House alwayse seem to be willing to raise OUR taxes and how many of them seem not to pay theirs. Yet another B.O. HHS nominee with a tax math problem:

    Sebelius admits errors, pays $7,000 in back taxes
    By ERICA WERNER – 45 minutes ago

    WASHINGTON (AP) — Health and Human Services nominee Kathleen Sebelius has corrected three years of tax returns and paid more than $7,000 in back taxes after finding “unintentional errors” — the latest tax troubles for an Obama administration nominee. The Kansas governor explained the changes to senators in a letter dated Tuesday that was obtained by The Associated Press. She said they involved charitable contributions, the sale of a home and business expenses.

    She and her husband paid a total of $7,040 in back taxes and $878 in interest to amend returns from 2005-2007.

    Several Obama administration nominees have been derailed by tax issues, notably the president’s first nominee for HHS secretary, former Senate Democratic leader Tom Daschle. He withdrew from consideration while apologizing for failing to pay $140,000 in taxes and interest.

    [snip]

    http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iyF-qhq9qmv7jsGQ3MJPo63B1gAAD9799MCO1

  226. Clotpoll says:

    pa (229)-

    I’m waiting for some of John’s bonds of the day. Especially if they’re a sampling of the smoldering remains of GM’s unsecured debt

  227. Clotpoll says:

    stater (233)-

    The CDS payouts are sorta nothing compared to all the unsecured debt getting crammed down to millings.

  228. Outofstater says:

    Clot, but isn’t that “sorta nothing” enough to bring down the banking house of cards?

  229. Essex says:

    231. Whew! Thanks for the clarity. I was awake all night over that one!!

  230. “pant up demand” as a reference is always excruciatingly comical to me.

    One of my favorite long running NJRR jokes was njpatient** with; “But wait, Bi said there would be no more write downs!” following every single write down announcement in 2k7 and 2k8. It honestly never got tired to me.

    **(at least I think njpatient started it)

  231. Shore Guy says:

    Okay. Here is the thing. People always say they want to change things in congress and we keep electing the same kind of clowns who have gotten us here in the first place; you know the ones, first elected to county office (maybe school board before that), serve a few terms inthe assembly, yadda, yadda.

    If people want to get things going in a different direction, we all need to support good people, who are not career politicians or beholden to the machines, of either party who are willing to work on behalf of SANE economic policies.

    I find myself pulling-out my hair, not a good thing for someone my age, in frustration over the asinine, no, make that reckless, behavior on the part of elected officials on all levels of government with respect to fiscal matters.

    Trenton, Albany, Sacramento, Washington, it seems not to make any difference — the behavior is imprudent at best, and, in the light of day, more accurately reckless.

  232. Essex says:

    234. Our taxes….go to banks at zero percent and they turn around and charge us 15-30% on credit cards. Go figure!

  233. Shore Guy says:

    speaking of njpatient, whatever happened to him?

  234. #242 – I have no idea. He was here one Fri and gone on Mon…. I dug his posts too.

  235. Shore Guy says:

    I have some recollection of a domestic issue.

  236. Essex says:

    240. Actually we need to change the whole damn system. Sorry to say it but things are broken and we need some serious alterations.

  237. #244 – Ah, `nuff said.

  238. kettle1 says:

    Tosh,

    he had to move on for various reasons. last i heard he was doing well.

  239. zieba says:

    I went to the Shops at Riverside in Hackensack today (7PM). The place was like a marble tomb! Vacated storefronts and a total lack of people in the halls! Tiffany, Pearls, Williams Sonoma, Brooks Brothers, Betsy Johnson…these stores were empty!! Not even a person or two mingling around the isles, nada, empty!

    The biggest crowd in the mall (count: 5) were the folks bunched around the Ferrari on display.

    Say it with me – this is slowly becoming a blog phrase – Recession? What recession!!!!

  240. House Whine says:

    #248
    Same experience I had this wk.end. I was at an out of state mall (looked like a mall whose target market was solid middle class) and the only stores with customers were the barber shop and the dollar store. Also, the snack food places were busy. Jewelry stores, knick knack kiosks,
    electronics all completely void of customers. It was almost creepy.

  241. Revelations says:

    Essex @238, sarcasm?

  242. Sastry says:

    Revelations #232:

    Have you looked at renting a 2BR? We did similar thing — married in ’02, stayed in the same 1BR till ’07. Moved into a fairly big place just before our kid was born.

    So far, we are idling there. The falling prices seem to be a bit tempting. I presume it is a good time to put in a low ball bid and wait…

    S

  243. Revelations says:

    Sastry,
    Thought about renting bigger, but not excited about a new lease agreement and moving to another just to move again in a year or so if the “one” pops on the market. If we had gone bigger earlier, I’d be content to stay, but I know as soon as the last box is unpacked in the new place, we’ll find the place we want to buy.

  244. PGC says:

    #161 SAS

    At one point in the 90’s i got a glimpse of an Ivy league endowment rebalancing part of its portfolio. Very eye opening. The end result was an FX to net the settlement of 1/2 billion USD. Biggest trade I have ever seen.

  245. safeashouses says:

    #240 Shore Guy,

    Unfortunately that behavior is a global trait in politicians. (At least the ones in Australia and Taiwan)

  246. safeashouses says:

    #252 Revelations

    I know as soon as the last box is unpacked in the new place, we’ll find the place we want to buy.

    Wait a year to unpack that box, kind of like how some couples keep a slice of wedding cake in the freezer for a year.

  247. kettle1 says:

    SL et al

    You asked for unemployment data?

    enjoy!

    http://www.scribd.com/doc/13842106/Unemployment-update-Mar-09

  248. NJGator says:

    Went to the Montclair 4th ward community meeting. You all would have been proud. I gave the town council a huge piece of my mind on the topic of ever increasing property taxes. It was recorded and will be shown on the local cable access channel. If I get a chance, I will Youtube it somehow. It was pretty funny, as the 4th ward is not terribly diverse and I was solidly in the minority. Boy did what I say have mass appeal!

    I really pissed off the current town council by telling them that they are behaving exactly like the prior town council. Mayor bike boy WAS pissed. Our assemblyman was there as well.

    The entire meeting ended up being a union ass-licking festival. I think half of the people in the room was on the government payroll.

  249. Stu says:

    She got me again. 257 was obviously me.

  250. kettle1 says:

    Shore 240

    I find myself pulling-out my hair, not a good thing for someone my age, in frustration over the asinine, no, make that reckless, behavior on the part of elected officials on all levels of government with respect to fiscal matters.

    The sheep do not want change, they want more of the status quo, more cheap credit and more bubble markets. Even many of those who demand change would be quite unhappy when they realized that it will also require changing their little section of the world as well.

    How many people demand we do something about climate change yet havent even considered that it will take substantially more then an electric care and a solar panel to actually tackle the issue. Try telling them that it would require seriously addressing global population issues, retooling global economies to be steady state instead of growth based. etc, etc. how many of them have even considered such issues? a few small % is my guess.

  251. sas says:

    come now kettle1…

    we are all consumers…
    not citizens…

    now lets go get some french fries.

    SAS

  252. NJGator says:

    Regarding Stu’s comments earlier today,who said romance is dead? I am afraid though that Lil Gator is already starting to display some of his dad’s tendencies. Tonight at Shoprite, he told the cashier that when he gets bigger,he can get his own copy of Turbo Tax.

    Today at work they let all the non-edit floor receptionists go. Rumors are flying fast and furious that IT and HR are getting hit next. No recession here.

  253. kettle1 says:

    SAS

    had an epiphany today, finally put 2&2 together.

    you need to control 3 things to maintain supremacy, whether its a village, a state, a nation, or a global economy.

    e-mail me sometime

    1elltek at gmail

  254. sas says:

    “HR are getting hit next”

    thats a good thing.
    those people always did make shake my head.

    SAS

  255. Pat says:

    Stu, it had more impact coming from the mouth of a pissed-off mother. Mayor bike boy. You should’ve let us think gator did it.

    Regarding the mall situation, I’m seeing the same thing down here in the DC burbs, which flies in the face of the government-employees-as-economic-saviors theory.

    I was at a JCPenney today, during lunch rush. At 1 pm, I was the only shopper in the shoe dept., the girls dept., and just about the entire store. And they had size 9.5 Wide (DH) in every wide style sneaker. Rare. The employees are either scared or they’ve had some type of recent zombie customer service with a smile training.

    The guy with the tool belt in front of me on the escalator turned around, smiled, and said, “Are you finding everything O.K. today, Ma’am?” The register girl yelled over from a rack, “Oh, Ma’am, thank you very much for your patience…I’ll be right there.” And she actually ran back to the register.

  256. sas says:

    “you need to control 3 things to maintain supremacy, whether its a village, a state, a nation, or a global economy.

    e-mail me sometime”

    i think i know what you may be thinking.

    i have 200+ email accounts that I never check, or have someone screen them for me.

    we will have to work something out.

    I’m “out of town” tonight.

    SAS

  257. kettle1 says:

    SAS

    i gave you the wrong e-mail address.

    its 1elttek at Gamil.

    have a nice trip :)

  258. safeashouses says:

    sas and kettle1

    I’ve noticed something interesting about snack foods.

    The ones I ate when I was a kid I still have the urge to eat as many as I can. But a similar organic/natural product that I never tried as a kid, but tastes as good or better, I’m perfectly happy to just eat a little bit.

    Is this because of

    A) I was conditioned as a kid to try to eat as much of that product as possible?

    B) There’s something in mass market snack foods that is mildly addicting?

    C) I’m a pig?

    D) All of the above?

  259. sas says:

    “A) I was conditioned as a kid to try to eat as much of that product as possible?”

    mass marketing & ads own your children.
    you have been taught to eat until you are stuffed, not just take enough to ease your hunger

    “B) There’s something in mass market snack foods that is mildly addicting?”
    yes, many chemicals. do a search.
    a NJ company brings in nice jack in this area.

    “C) I’m a pig?”
    well, kids do tend to have a higher metabolism, and require more energy/food consumption.
    key being nutricious foods.
    not sh*t ass chicken fingers.

    SAS

    D) All of the above?

  260. safeashouses says:

    #268 sas

    Do you think its a combination of mass marketing, HFCS and chemicals in food, and a change in lifestyle that’s triggered the surge in weight gain?

    It’s amazing how much thinner were just 30 years ago. Look at the crowds of sporting events and compare them to today.

  261. kettle1 says:

    270 safe

    Do you think its a combination of mass marketing, HFCS and chemicals in food, and a change in lifestyle that’s triggered the surge in weight gain?

    Bingo

  262. chicagofinance says:

    Lost WTF are you?
    Funniest DM song ever…I don’t know how these don’t crack up singing this nonsense….
    http://video.yahoo.com/watch/4684257/12518389

  263. chicagofinance says:

    Pat says:
    March 31, 2009 at 7:02 pm
    “pant up demand” as a reference is always excruciatingly comical to me. I popped over here and saw bi’s post, and had just finished reading a comment elsewhere about W. Buffet’s famous tide goes out/swimming naked without pants.

    Pat: In addition to the pant up….I really think that “fcuk” is making headway here. I really hope we can transition to “French Connection UK”.

    I also want to put in my $0.02 for grim’s chest hair. I was bitter last time I saw him that he #1 wore a tee shirt and #2 it was not a V-neck.

  264. kettle1 says:

    AIG crisis could be the tip of an insurance iceberg

    When insurance giant American International Group Inc. imploded last fall, the firm’s problems were quickly blamed not on its core insurance business but on an obscure operation that traded exotic mortgage securities. But as the economic crisis deepens, it has become clear that AIG’s problems extend across most of its business lines, including its massive life insurance and retirement services operations, which reported a staggering $18-billion quarterly loss this month. The company’s situation is emblematic of problems across the life insurance industry, which is suffering deep losses on investments that underlie policies for millions of American families.

    So far, some of the biggest companies have suffered sharp drops in their stock prices, and many of them are asking for federal assistance. Industry conditions last year were the worst in memory and are expected to grow deeper this year amid credit rating downgrades, declining revenue and investment losses, according to credit rating firm A.M. Best Co. The worst-case scenario is that a second financial crisis is looming if these life insurance companies come under too much stress. “It was essentially a house of cards at AIG,” said Donn Vickrey, a forensic accountant and co-founder of Gradient Analytics in Scottsdale, Ariz. “I would characterize other life insurers as suffering varying degrees of risk.”

    http://www.latimes.com/business/la-na-aig30-2009mar30,0,3532937.story?track=rss

  265. kettle1 says:

    holy time bomb batman!!!!

    The pension bomb is about to go off and the federal pensions insurer has been dabbling in stocks for the last year?

    this will be what, bailout 432? wonder if we have a bond dislocation by the time this hits?

    US federal pension insurer shifted to stocks

    Just months before the start of last year’s stock market collapse, the federal agency that insures the retirement funds of 44 million Americans departed from its conservative investment strategy and decided to put much of its $64 billion insurance fund into stocks. Switching from a heavy reliance on bonds, the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation decided to pour billions of dollars into speculative investments such as stocks in emerging foreign markets, real estate, and private equity funds. The agency refused to say how much of the new investment strategy has been implemented or how the fund has fared during the downturn. The agency would only say that its fund was down 6.5 percent – and all of its stock-related investments were down 23 percent – as of last Sept. 30,the end of its fiscal year. But that was before most of the recent stock market decline and just before the investment switch was scheduled to begin in earnest.

    “The worst case scenario is coming to pass,” said Mark Ruloff, a fellow at the Pension Finance Institute, an independent group that monitors pensions. He said the agency leaders “fail to realize that they are an insurer of pension plans and therefore should be investing differently than the risk their participants are taking.” The Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation may be little-known to most Americans, but it serves as a lifeline for the 1.3 million people who receive retirement checks from it, and the 44 million others whose plans are backed by the agency.

    http://www.boston.com/news/nation/washington/articles/2009/03/30/pension_insurer_shifted_to_stocks/?page=full

  266. Hard Place says:

    Do you think its a combination of mass marketing, HFCS and chemicals in food, and a change in lifestyle that’s triggered the surge in weight gain?

    I’m 5’9″ and 160 lbs. I have a 3 yr old and based on how his growth has been tracking he is going to grow up to be 6’4″ and 230lbs. There is NO ONE in my genetic history that is that big. I thought I’ve fed him pretty well and tried to avoid junk food and all mass marketed food. I don’t know what caused this outgrowth.

  267. kettle1 says:

    IBM files for patent on offshoring jobs.

    As IBM was firing thousands of American workers last week, the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office published Big Blue’s application to copyright a computerized system that calculates how to offshore jobs while maximizing government tax breaks.

    In their application to patent a “method and system for strategic global resource sourcing,” five Hudson Valley IBMers describe how it weighs such plans as “50 percent of resources in China by 2010,” against such factors as labor costs, infrastructure and the “minimum head count to qualify for incentives.”

    http://www.recordonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20090330/BIZ/903300315

  268. Hard Place says:

    nice little article abt the PBGC. Thx.

  269. PGC says:

    #278 Kettle

    I think part of this will be “chase the yield” and the rest will be purchases on the back of political pressure. Of that 64 billion, how much will show up as fannie, freddie and the like.

    It is like the NJ pension fund buying up Lehman before they hit the wall. 10 years ago, they wouldn’t have gone near it.

  270. Firestormik says:

    They are trying to mimic Hyundai which was profitable in 2008. BTW, I drive Sonata and love the value of the car

    Stu says:
    March 31, 2009 at 12:36 pm

    Detroit needs some serious help!

    Time to shut both of them down and have a new lean mean company emerge. This is the only solution. Fiat ain’t gonna happen.

  271. kettle1 says:

    PGC

    PBGC i toast. when the pension bomb hits in the next 6 to 18 months, obama will be forced to bail them out, but with what money? how long can we run the printing press before we force a bond dislocation.

    Not forcing the derivatives market into the light and not forcing the bondholders to eat loses will cause a treasury dislocation.

    the amounts of money that the government is now promising is becoming so absurd its funny

  272. kettle1 says:

    PGC,

    i demand 100 bazillion trillion dollars, or else!

    http://tinyurl.com/cz8v3p

  273. kettle1 says:

    stu, fire

    at this point i would run out and buy a new car the second i got wind of an impending layoff. I then get to drive the car for free for 1 year!!!

  274. cobbler says:

    An article in this week’s New Yorker about a really cool California realtor (did 282 REO sales in 2008); here is the abstract from their website (you need to register or to buy the magazine to get the whole thing):

    Tad Friend, Letter from California, “Cash for Keys,” The New Yorker, April 6, 2009, p. 34

    Read the full text of this article. (Registration required.)
    Keywords
    Leo Nordine; Foreclosure; Real Estate; Los Angeles, California; Subprime Mortgages; Economic Crisis; Houses

    ABSTRACT: LETTER FROM CALIFORNIA about Leo Nordine, who sells foreclosed houses in Los Angeles. In 2006, Leo Nordine sold seventy-five houses for the banks; in 2008, he sold two hundred and eighty-two. This year he expects to sell a house a day. Nordine, forty-six, is one of Los Angeles’s leading R.E.O. brokers (bank-derived shorthand for “other real estate owned”). He has a knack for pricing houses aggressively, so they sell fast. There is almost always a complication: the second house on a property that somehow vanished; the duplex where a neighbor donned a black mask to frighten off buyers; the doctor in Burbank who brandished a knife at one of Nordine’s field representatives. Describes Nordine negotiating with the tenants of a foreclosed house in South Gate. Since 2005, new foreclosures have more than tripled, to 2.2 million in 2008. This year, the figure could go higher. The collapse has come as a particular shock in the Golden State, where flipping houses was a sport and a pastime. Eight of the nation’s top fifteen subprime lenders were based in Southern California. The correction has been severe. Sixty per cent of the homes sold in California in January had been foreclosed in the previous twelve months. Writer visits Nordine at his home in Hermosa Beach, where he lives with his wife, Molly, and his son, Nate. The R.E.O. broker’s first task with a new listing is to determine whether the owner, or a tenant, is still living at the property, and, if so, offering him “cash for keys,” known as C.F.K., to vacate fast. Nordine typically presents the borrower’s options candidly. In one case overheard by the writer, Nordine told the borrower he could either wait to be evicted, which can take four to six months, or accept the bank’s offer of up to four thousand dollars and leave the house in thirty days. Even when he’s selling a “dog” of a house, Nordine finds some feature to highlight in his listing. Yet certain properties defy his descriptive powers. Writer goes out to dinner with Nordine and his family. Tells about Nordine’s childhood, his first marriage, and his early days as an R.E.O. broker. Describes a number of uncooperative tenants and owners Nordine and his associates have dealt with, including a man who attempted to avoid foreclosure by calling himself Leo Nordine and moving from unit to unit within a property.

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