North Jersey March Home Sales

Preliminary March sales and inventory data for Northern New Jersey (GSMLS) is in. Please note that this data is subject to revision.

The first graph plots the unadjusted sales data (closed sales) for the counties listed. Please note the lower bound of the graph, it is set to 500, not to zero. I do this to emphasize the seasonal nature of the Northern NJ market.


(click to enlarge)

The second graph is another view at the sales data for the full year. Please note that this graph does cross at zero.


(click to enlarge)

The third graph displays only March sales, 2000 to 2009 YOY.


(click to enlarge)

The fourth graph displays an overlay of Sales and Inventory from 2003 to 2009.


(click to enlarge)

The fifth graph displays the year over year change in inventory on a month by month basis.


(click to enlarge)

The sixth graph displays the year over year change in sales on a month by month basis.


(click to enlarge)

The last graph displays the absorption rate (not seasonally adjusted), in months:


(click to enlarge)

Bonus Graphs!

March Sales By County (log scale):


(click to enlarge)

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408 Responses to North Jersey March Home Sales

  1. comrade nom deplume says:

    frist again

  2. yikes says:

    more ‘world is ending, wtf are people thinking’

    http://www.butasforme.com/2009/04/08/security-video-shows-mom-shooting-son-self-at-florida-shooting-range/

    this is one of the most disturbing things i’ve seen on the internet

  3. sas says:

    i just spend like 5 minutes writing a post on the last thread, and the only feedback I get is “up”?

    man, that stinks.

    SAS

  4. sas says:

    “Fox to make reality TV show out of company layoffs”
    http://tinyurl.com/cj3u45

  5. Thanks for the charts grim. I was expecting to see some sort of bump up in March sales, but there’s nothing. That’s pretty ugly.

  6. comrade nom deplume says:

    [2] yikes

    To me, this is a better example of the need for “reasonable” regulation than the need to keep guns out of the hands of nutjobs.

    And I think that responsible owners would agree to reasonable regulation.

    Problem is, I doubt we can ever come to agreement with the gun grabbers, nor do the gun grabbers want that. I have questioned many who freely admit that they will never settle for compromises. Thus, we have the unwillingness of the owners to compromise with groups that have billed themselves as their sworn enemies and who are clear that they won’t accept compromise as anything more than an interim measure.

    For example, if you put together a bill that provided for background checks, some reasonable level of training and competency review, registration, and reasonable fees, all in exchange for the right to get carry permits, no pointless restrictions on cosmetics (which was all the assault weapon ban was), no pointless restrictions on travel, and a constitutional guarantee that restrictions would go no further, it would not be the right that balks. It would be the left. I guarantee it.

  7. gary says:

    Dear Sellers,

    Tick… tick… tick… tick…

  8. comrade nom deplume says:

    And on that note, I think this subject is a bit too tangential to Northern NJ real estate, economics and politics, so I am going to drop it.

  9. sas says:

    “Dear Sellers,
    Tick… tick… tick… tick”

    there are alot of sellers whom don’t have their house on the market right now, waiting for the market “to come back”, and then they will sell.

    ha ha ha..

    don’t quit your day job.
    SAS

  10. yikes says:

    zieba says:
    April 8, 2009 at 4:38 pm

    RE: 133

    I work in the entertainment industry. Oh the stories I could tell you! From failed restaurants to barber shops and clothing lines that sell $795-$2,300 hooded sweatshirts.

    One of my partner’s guys was blowing through bi-weekly checks for $66,666 like it aint no thang…

    These save nothing, know nothing and are at the mercy of their managers and advisors; many of which are crooked as hell.

    i believe MC Hammer is the career clubhouse leader in this category

  11. Sean says:

    Ah memories.

    Nothing less than 25% off peak 2005 says:
    November 17, 2006 at 5:58 pm

    Give it Grubbers house prics are tanking. No more entitlements.

    NO SPRING REBOUND–SPRING MASSACRE 2007!

    Be really worried.

    Tick Tock Tick Tock..

    BOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAAAA

    Bob

  12. yikes says:

    anyone have anymore class warfare links? i’m sending those to friends and family to get them prepared for this summer and 2010.

    i’m basically telling all of them to do 3 things:
    1) Save
    2) even if you have money, don’t spend it
    3) do not, under any circumstances, buy a flashy car/house

  13. sas says:

    whatever happened to Booyaa Bob?

    SAS

  14. yikes says:

    comrade – yes, if someone is mentally unstable, they definitely should not have weapons. how this can be monitored, i do not know.

  15. grim says:

    Let me know if the graph annotations are helpful.

  16. yikes says:

    i mentioned that i got pulled over for the first time in 5 years recently. made a u-turn (over a double yellow line, unmarked cop car was nearby).

    went to court. sold my case to the judge and basically asked him to knock it down to a lesser charge just so i dont get points.

    judge is nice, seems to understand where im coming from, and says, ‘you can talk to the officer about a plea agreement.’ i look to the officer – in the court – and ask him about it.

    he says no. shakes his head no.

    and that’s it. (of note: i already paid the fine. all i wanted was to avoid the points. it would have cost him NOTHING to knock it down so i dont get points.)

    i’ll refrain from future comment just in case big brother is watching.

  17. sas says:

    yikes,

    are you a terrorist? that unamerican.
    we are suppose to shop, goto the malls, return to work, all the things that make us american.

    you think we are citizens? ha..hark..no,
    we are consumers.

    save money & get out of debt… thats tinfoil hat stuff.

    SAS

  18. sas says:

    “and that’s it. (of note: i already paid the fine. all i wanted was to avoid the points. it would have cost him NOTHING to knock it down so i dont get points.”

    no secret bloke. Local Law enforcement is about one thing only, money generating revenue for the municipality.
    911 is a total joke.

    “i’ll refrain from future comment just in case big brother is watching”

    u bet they are, along with a his cousin.
    but we won’t name names…. i wouldn’t want to let the cat out of the bag.

    :)
    SAS

  19. gary says:

    This chart is stunning. I feel like a bystander who just witnessed a horrific collision. And yet, the sellers still refuse to enroll in the 12 step program.

  20. livinginpa says:

    yikes, I’m a bit surprised at your experience. Was that in PA or NJ?

  21. SubprimeMan says:

    I love these graphs. They put a smile on my face.

  22. yome says:

    #16 already paid the fine. all i wanted was to avoid the points.

    Why did you not try making a deal with the prosecutor.Cost you the court cost and some fines but 0 points.
    Up to 2 points forgiven.

  23. zieba says:

    Yikes,

    This is THE soundtrack to your ordeal!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1M8vei3L0L8

    In Englewood/Fort Lee traffic offenders filter into the courtroom through the prosecutors office. He slashes and knocks them down as much as he can.

  24. Clotpoll says:

    sas (13)-

    After the Colts-Bears Super Bowl, he and his toady, Listen, stayed in FL. They now do board-up jobs and basic security and management of giant inventories of REO.

  25. Clotpoll says:

    Sometimes, Booyah will let Listen wear a shiny yellow smock and a hard hat.

    If he does all his chores well…

  26. Clotpoll says:

    yikes (14)-

    I think we should arm the mentally-unstable to the nines.

  27. BC Bob says:

    “i just spend like 5 minutes writing a post on the last thread, and the only feedback I get is “up”?”

    SAS,

    Think of all the times you spent hours with some lolita and the only feedback you got was “up yours”.

    Cheers.

  28. House Hunter says:

    yikes, isn’t that up to the prosecutor? I had a ticket recently and pleaded with the them, the officer was not even there. also, depends on your insurance co, points do not always mean and increase in your insurance..I wish I knew that before court…$439 for court fees and no points.. I see lights flashing every day on my was to work…it’s the mob…I am all cruise control all the time now

  29. ruggles says:

    14 – if someone is mentally unstable, they definitely should not have weapons. how this can be monitored, i do not know.

    Choosing to live in New Jersey is certainly a major indicator of mental instability. now where’s my gun?

  30. BC Bob says:

    “After the Colts-Bears Super Bowl, he and his toady, Listen, stayed in FL.”

    Clot,

    I saw him on TV, in Wayne Hugenzia’s box, during the game. Yes, he stayed in Fla. He’s tap dancing on many graves.

    Listen? He’s shining BOOYAA’S shoes in the morn.

  31. yikes says:

    livinginpa says:
    April 8, 2009 at 7:36 pm

    yikes, I’m a bit surprised at your experience. Was that in PA or NJ?

    PA. i copped to the u-turn. didn’t deny guilt. just figured my sterling driving record would be worth saving.

    and the whole ‘cop not showing’ notion is out the window is out in this town – there must have been 6 there that day. all just shooting the shit like it was nothing.

  32. yikes says:

    yome says:
    April 8, 2009 at 8:12 pm

    #16 already paid the fine. all i wanted was to avoid the points.

    Why did you not try making a deal with the prosecutor.Cost you the court cost and some fines but 0 points.
    Up to 2 points forgiven.

    there wasn’t a prosecutor. just me, the cop and the judge.

  33. stan says:

    grim.

    the annotations are a good addition.

    I keep hearing Clot say the spring is doa, he wasnt kidding. these charts certainly seem to show it

  34. grim says:

    Ah damn, found the typo.

    Too bad I didn’t save the PSD before I flattened it.

  35. confused in nj says:

    The NJ police can’t make a deal. Ever since the State Police were indicted for discrimination, every car has a camera, and every cop has an implanted microchip.

  36. grim says:

    From the Star Ledger:

    Morris judge freezes assets of Fair Haven financial advisor

    A Superior Court judge in Morris County temporarily froze all the assets of a Fair Haven financial advisor who is alleged to have swindled $9 million from a Hanover man.

    Maxwell Smith had been selling a non-existent investment called Healthcare Financial Partnership, Direct Municipal Loan to 93-year-old Leonard Frederick for more than 10 years in a scam to misappropriate funds, according to a civil complaint by Frederick.

  37. Shore Guy says:

    “there must have been 6 there that day. all just shooting the shit like it was nothing.”

    Easy overtime hours.

  38. All Hype says:

    But the sales are higher in March compared to February….

    Gotta plant them mustard seeds for June’s end of the recession.

  39. Jim says:

    Yikes: i’ll refrain from future comment just in case big brother is watching.

    I was trapped in NY on alternate route 17(a or b, not sure which). Speed limit went from 55 down to 35. I was behind another NY driver,pulled us both over.

    I pleaded with the officer to no avail, he basically laughed at me. So I mailed ticket in paid fine $265,and forgot about it. Following year my commercial insurance jumped over $800, two months later my personal car insurance jumped $375.

    What a frickin racket,neither insurance company lost a dime…but both made out like bandits.

    A side note, dropped commercial insurer, put still paid $200 more than previous year.

    Now I drive like an old lady,5mph under limit..getting used to the finger by my fellow drivers.

  40. zieba says:

    RE: 32

    sticks

  41. BC Bob says:

    Clot’s buddies at MK?

    “LEWISBURG, Tenn. — Five years ago, this small factory town was struggling to pay the interest on a bond for new sewers. Bob Phillips, Lewisburg’s part-time mayor and full-time pharmacist, was urged by the town’s financial adviser, an investment bank named Morgan Keegan & Company, to engage in a complex financial transaction to lower interest rates.”

    “In January, local officials were shocked to discover that annual interest payments on the bond had quadrupled to $1 million. Morgan Keegan, they said, did not serve them well in any of its roles.”

    “Lewisburg is one of hundreds of small cities and counties across America reeling from their reliance in recent years on risky municipal bond derivatives that went bad. Municipalities that bought the derivatives were like homeowners with fixed-rate mortgages who refinanced by taking out lower-interest, variable-rate mortgages. But some local officials say they were not told, or did not understand, that interest rates could go much higher if economic conditions worsened — which, of course, they did.”

    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/08/us/08bond.html?_r=1&ref=business

  42. BC Bob says:

    Say it ain’t so, Churchill Downs? Will somebody stop the madness.

    http://www.courier-journal.com/article/20090408/DERBYFUN/904080377/1003/BUSINESS

  43. Stu says:

    Lots of updates for tonight…

    First, nice comeback so far for the Mets. Let’s see if there relief pitching is up to the task two games in a row. BTW, how ’bout them damn Yankees?

    Second, Club Kidoo, the much heralded toddler fantasyland planned to be built in Montclair, has filed for bankruptcy prior to even opening. Must be that credit crunch that everyone says is over. If you recall about a year ago, I said they would never make it in this economy. Especially considering that their classes were planned to cost over $40 per hour. Now I won’t even get a chance to see if I was right.

    Third, ‘Awesoma Powah’ on the charts Grim. I like the annotations, but the stickmen were a much nicer touch. As for the February pop that everyone thought was signaling the bottom, I called it when I linked to the Bloomberg Economic Calendar graphs. Three of the last four February’s showed a pop, only to be erased in March. I expect to see the same thing when Fed numbers are released later this month.

    Fourth, and let this be a message to all of you fools who just recently bought or who are planning to buy shortly. We just received our property appraisal (cost us a whopping $300) that we plan to use to fight our property taxes. It is now official, we have lost money on our home purchase, even after considering carry costs and most likely even after considering the tax shelter that we use it for. We bought the home private sale in October of 2004 for $480,000 which was truly an amazing price (some here might call it a lowball) with no realtor fees from an estate in a private sale. We completed about $50,000 in improvements. So without carry costs it should be worth $530,000. Appraisal came in at $500,000 for October 1st of 2008! Appraisal for April 7th of 2009 puts us at $482,000 based on three different appraisal methodologies. At the peak of the market, the town of Montclair’s initiall assesment was $639,700. We eventually fought it down to $580,000. This year we will get it down to $500,000.

    Peak ($619,000) to current ($482,000) drop for our home (with $30,000 worth of improvements made during this time frame) is 22%. Whoever said it’s not happening here is smoking the same thing Kramer is.

    I still hold to my original estimate that all areas in NJ, including train towns, will drop no less than 35% peak to trough with the downside potentially reaching 40 to 50%. Buy today, risk 30% of your downpayment. Do the smart thing and at least go FHA on the financing. That way, when you mail the keys to the bank (or is that the US government?) you will only have lost 30% of 3 percent of the value of the home or about 1% of the total value of the home. Sure beats losing 30% of a 30% downpayment, or about 1/6th the total value of the home. AND TRUST ME WHEN I SAY THIS…Do not feel guilty about screwing the lenders. They have been robbing you blind through these bailouts already. Time to get some back fellow grubbers. I know when I buy my next home, I plan to put down as little as possible, especially if the interest rates stay this low.

    Let’s go Mets!!!

  44. poor guy says:

    grim

    thanks for the graphs. No surprise things are getting worse. Our agent makes it seem like houses sell hot cakes. It’s hard to argue–agents know the market better.

  45. safeashouses says:

    Great work grim.

    Next month, can you add a drain or tombstone as a visual effect for chart 3?

  46. Everything's Hobroken says:

    re 18
    Actually, I think that the plea deal makes the court more money. In NJ there is a mandatory surcharge for it.

    When I visited the traffic court in Montclair (Essex county), it appeared that the pleas were at the discretion of the prosecutor, who was in attendance.

    They were giving it out for up to 4 point violations.

  47. safeashouses says:

    I miss Booya Bob.

    his posts were consistently funny.

  48. yikes says:

    it’s not just people on this board struggling to sleep at night due to the economy

    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/09/health/09stress.html?_r=1&hp

  49. kettle1 says:

    SAS,

    Check this out! You said you thought IOUSA was propaganda at some level. That movie was bankrolled by The Peter G. Peterson Foundation. The Peter G. Peterson Foundation was established in 2008 by Peter G. Peterson, a co-founder of the Blackstone Group.

    Pete Peterson, former Chairman of the Council on Foreign Relations, hand picked Geithner for the position of NY Fed President. Geithner was a Senior Fellow on the Council on Foreign Relations. Peterson was co-founder and CEO of the Blackstone Group hedge fund, which spun off BlackRock. 49% of BlackRock is owned by Merrill Lynch. Merrill Lynch is owned by Bank of America. Bank of America and Bank of America bonds have arguably taken over from Citigroup as the most important financial stock and bonds to watch.

  50. AstoriaMike says:

    Thanks for the charts again Grim. The annotations are great and very helpful. No sign of good news there…I guess I am still on the sidelines.
    -am

  51. Qwerty says:

    More excellent work from Grim.

    The new labels are good, particularly in graph #3. One would think stickmen could ski down such a slope.

  52. Qwerty says:

    RE: mom shooting her young son

    Such a shame. The woman was sick. Should have started with herself.

    That she used a gun is mostly irrelevant — she would have stabbed him in his sleep.

  53. kettle1 says:

    Pensions bomb going kaboom

    Double blow for US pensions as values crash

    pensions “could face a cash flow collapse, they are liquidating assets to meet their monthly cash flow needs instead of selling positions that are down 10 per cent, they are being forced to liquidate positions down 40 per cent. It is a firesale liquidation of assets to have the cash on hand to meet obligations”. Bill Atwood, the executive director of the Illinois State Board of Investments, says: “Right now it’s very bad. For the full year 2009 (ending in June) we will have $270m negative cash flow on $8.5bn in assets.” State pension benefits are protected by law, and must be paid even if the fund is making a loss. Calpers, the largest fund, has lost $70bn in value in the past eight months, but still has to pay $11bn in benefits this year. Unless the fund starts recouping its losses soon, the California state government, which is already mired in a huge deficit, will have to lift contributions to Calpers starting from next year.

    US pension plans are in generally worse shape than those in Europe. They were more underfunded, meaning they did not have the money to meet future pension commitments, even before the financial crisis hit, and their losses over the past year have been greater because they had larger allocations to equities. Funding has now fallen to about 50 per cent, according to industry estimates

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/350f5630-23a5-11de-996a-00144feabdc0.html

  54. kettle1 says:

    California’s anti-tax crusaders talk revolt

    Taking inspiration from a landmark 1970s tax revolt, a determined group of activists say the moment is right for another voter uprising in California, where recession-battered residents have been hit with the highest income and sales tax rates in the nation. And like Proposition 13, the 1978 ballot measure that transformed the state’s political landscape and ignited tax-reform movements nationwide, they see the next backlash coming not from either major political party, but from the people. If the anti-tax crusaders can galvanize voter discontent, they hope to roll back the latest tax hikes, impose permanent, iron-clad spending caps on Sacramento lawmakers and make the issue central in the 2010 gubernatorial election.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSTRE53700V20090408?feedType=RSS&feedName=domesticNews&sp=true

  55. grim says:

    From the NY Times:

    Housing Slump Hits Manhattan

    While sales have picked up a bit in some suffering housing markets in the West, creating a glimmer of hope that home prices nationwide may be approaching a bottom, the Manhattan real estate market has just begun a steep slide. It parallels the decline in New York’s financial services industry, and housing analysts say it may continue long after other markets heal.

    In the late 1980s, a surge in condominium construction in New York created a glut of condo apartments. Prices peaked in 1989, declined steeply in 1991, bottomed out in 1993 and stabilized in 1995 and 1996.

    Mr. Miller said that during the last big real estate downtown, when studio apartments were so cheap that he considered buying one on a credit card, people thought the luxury market would never come back. “Conspicuous consumption was out of vogue in 1991,” he said. “The market was back by 1997 or 1998.”

  56. safeashouses says:

    From CNN

    “UK terror Chief quits after blunder”

    http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/europe/04/09/uk.terror.arrests/index.html

    Oops.

  57. Cindy says:

    http://taxdayteaparty.com/teaparty/california/

    Kettle (54) – Several more events planned -4/15/09.

  58. Clotpoll says:

    BC (41)-

    That department at M-K is jammed with guys I went to HS with. Still a bunch of j-offs. Now they swindle little towns for jollies.

  59. Clotpoll says:

    BC- One thing for certain: the fees generated by those M-K geniuses is long-ago paid, spent and won’t be given back.

  60. yikes says:

    san diego mansion stripped of over a million dollars worth of fixtures

    http://www.nbcsandiego.com/around_town/real_estate/Thieves-Strip-Million-Dollar-Mansion.html

  61. yome says:

    Is IOUSA numbers correct?Before the spending of Omama,we needed 52trillion to meet our obligation?It will be alot more after this.

  62. Laurie says:

    RE #39.Jim and rt 17…was it officer Isreal??? He has made a career out of the rt 17 alternative…the court house is packed and I mean Packed with people he has stopped…me too brother, me too.What a scam.

  63. Shore Guy says:

    Safe,

    I know a number of the UK counterterrorism guys and they are, or always appeared to be first rate. Why on earth one would not keep any document in a briefecase, or even manilla envelope, escapes me.

  64. Shore Guy says:

    Stu,

    Yes, your house has gone down in value, but, even with improvements, just a few percentage points. If you had put that money into the Dow, you would have lost more.

    It is a great time to buy.

  65. Shore Guy says:

    “Destination Maternity March”

    What a name. It sounds like some kind of demonstration on the National Mall in DC

  66. grim says:

    What a name. It sounds like some kind of demonstration on the National Mall in DC

    You know, another baby boom might just be what this country needs…

  67. Shore Guy says:

    Maybe we can turn the National Mall from undeveloped greenfield into “The Premier Shopping Destination in America.” Profits can go to paying for the bailouts, and we can reduce all those pesky landscaping costs.

  68. Shore Guy says:

    ” another baby boom might just be what this country needs…”

    This message brought to you by the NEA, the AFT, and Oshkosh B’Gosh

  69. Laurie says:

    They landscape the national Mall? Who needs landscaping when it’s all just dirt??

  70. d2b says:

    All 19 banks will pass the stress test but some will need more aid???

    Couldn’t we say that the ones that need more aid really failed?

    Is this like giving every kid in little league a trophy? $25B trophies?

  71. grim says:

    This message brought to you by the NEA, the AFT, and Oshkosh B’Gosh

    What it all boils down to is that someone is going to need to pay for my retirement and healthcare, and it ain’t gunna be me.

  72. BC Bob says:

    kettle [49],

    Ever consider the timing of the release? First, Peterson invited investors to the table. Coincidence?

    By the way, I still can’t figure out why anybody would buy what they were selling? That said, Blackstone is truly talent. They invited the masses to the party just before the doors were locked.

  73. Shore Guy says:

    Someone help out here. There is an old story from the USSR where the last line is “They pretend to pay us and we pretend to work.”

    I woke up thinking it might be modified to apply to the NJ Legislature.

  74. Victorian says:

    BlackRock’s Doll Says Stocks Are `Turning the Corner’

    ..Yes, and heading up the cliff.

  75. BC Bob says:

    BlackRock’s Doll Says Stocks Are `Turning the Corner’

    vic,

    Which corner?

  76. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    Up
    Kohl’s same-store sales up 4.3% in March
    Aeropostale March same-store sales up 3%
    Ross Stores March same-store sales up 3%
    TJX March same-store sales up 2%
    Wal-Mart March same-store sales up 1.4% excluding fuel
    (0.7% including fuel -jb)

    Down
    BJ’s Wholesale Club March same store sales dip 0.1%
    Stein Mart March same-store sales down 1.4%
    Costco March same-store sales fell 5%
    Target March same-store sales down 6.3%
    J.C. Penney same-store sales down 7.2% in March
    Destination Maternity March same-store sales down 7.6%
    Gap Inc. same-store sales fall 8% in March
    Limited Brands March same-store sales down 9%
    Macy’s March same-store sales down 9.2%
    Nordstrom March same-store sales down 13.5%
    Stage Stores March same-store sales down 15%
    American Eagle March same-store sales down 16%
    Dillard’s March same-store sales down 19%
    Saks March same-store sales down 23.6%
    Abercrombie & Fitch March same-store sales off 35%

    What recession?

  77. Cindy says:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/09/business/09bank.html?_r=1&ref=business

    (72) d2b – “Banks Holding Up in Tests, but May Still Need Aid”

    What a bunch of hooey.

  78. Shore Guy says:

    Victorian,

    Your comment about going “up” a cliff made me think about some of the old movies with Gene Kelly. He would do a dance routine seeming to walk up the side of a building. While he was going up, it was an amazing sight to see. Nevertheless, gravity eventually took over and down he came again. That seems a decent similie for the stock markets in recent weeks. Amazing to see, but gravity (fundamental economic conditions) stands ready to bring things back to earth.

  79. Shore Guy says:

    Abercrombie & Fitch March same-store sales off 35%… Gap down 8%.

    So, parents are cuttng back less than their children? Or are they directing the children to Gap as a less expensive alternative than AF?

  80. reinvestor101 says:

    This financial turmoil is causing all manner of violence at little things. I hope some of you terrorists are happy now that you’ve gotten people at each other’s throats for the smallest of offenses. This is getting ridiculous.

    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/30116608

  81. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    Like I said before, I love Doll, what a tool, always looks like a deer in the headlights, never says anything negative.

  82. Victorian says:

    BC (77) –
    “Which corner?”

    Maybe this one? –
    https://www.gravity-slaves.co.uk/galleries/racing/2003_zagreb/pic3.jpg

  83. BC Bob says:

    “I hope some of you terrorists are happy now that you’ve gotten people at each other’s throats for the smallest of offenses. This is getting ridiculous.”

    50.5,

    You must be on to something?

    Five derelicts from Houston sharing one hotel room in Waco? What did it cost them $2 each? Too many drugs and one cockroach gets stabbed. I get it, the new uptick rule will solve this problem.

    A start, get rid of all five.

    Boiler Up.

  84. sas says:

    “think of all the times you spent hours with some lolita and the only feedback you got was “up yours”

    yee. you got me there. I can’t respond to that one, I can only agree to it.

    :)
    SAS

  85. Shore Guy says:

    At the NAR seder the only thing served is charoset. Nothing bitter. Never.

  86. DL says:

    Shre Guy; Ref 75: Back in the day that was a common expression among the nations of the Warsaw pact; they were paid in currencies that were not convertable and there was nothing in their stores to buy with it.

  87. BC Bob says:

    “I hope some of you terrorists are happy now that you’ve gotten people at each other’s throats for the smallest of offenses. This is getting ridiculous.”

    50.5,

    You must be on to something?

    Five derelicts from Houston sharing one hotel room in Waco? What did it cost them $2 each? Too many drugs and one c#ckroach gets stabbed. I get it, the new uptick rule will solve this problem.

    A start, get rid of all five.

    Boiler Up.

  88. DL says:

    “Germany’s Karmann files bankruptcy.”
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/apr/08/daimler-workers-protest

    First car I drove in Germany was a Karmann Ghia.

  89. sas says:

    Grim,

    “Let me know if the graph annotations are helpful.”

    i like the annotations, but I think you have too many annotations. It makes the slide look a little “busy”. Maybe 1 or 2 annotations/graph with a little more of a summary? rather then pepper the graph.

    I think the “busy” part of the slide may take away from the real take home message that the data displays very well.

    Just my wee input. take or leave.
    SAS

  90. grim says:

    So, parents are cuttng back less than their children? Or are they directing the children to Gap as a less expensive alternative than AF?

    Aeropostale appears to be the inferior good in this situation.

  91. Stu says:

    All the same store sales numbers are down. What they don’t reveal is the earnings. Hear on Bloomberg last night that Costco same store sales were down 5%, but purchases were down 10%. This jives with what Gator and I witnessed a few months ago. Lines were long and parking was sparse, but lots of people on line were purchasing one thing.

  92. Stu says:

    Jobless claims at 8:30…Hey that’s now.

  93. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    U.S. weekly initial jobless claims fall 20,000 to 654,000

    U.S. 4-week average initial claims fall 750 to 657,250

    U.S. ongoing jobless claims rise 95,000 to record 5.84 mln

    U.S. 4-week avg ongoing claims up 146,750 to record 5.65 mln

  94. chicagofinance says:

    Laurie says:
    April 9, 2009 at 7:49 am
    They landscape the national Mall? Who needs landscaping when it’s all just dirt??

    l: I think you mean the end with the Capitol…

  95. Stu says:

    Number of people filing first-time unemployment benefits fell 20,000 last week to 654,000, U.S. says. Continuing claims at record.

  96. Shore Guy says:

    “A spokesman explained that operations would continue just as before since the company had virtually no bank debt, rather Karmann was forced to file for insolvency under German law since it could not pay for the huge layoff plan”

    So, no debt but the German social program makes them insolvent because of the cost of reducing headcount in order to save the remaining jobs.

  97. chicagofinance says:

    BC Bob says:
    April 9, 2009 at 7:52 am
    kettle [49], That said, Blackstone is truly talent. They invited the masses to the party just before the doors were locked.

    Bost: I made that call at the time. They chucked the BX thing out there and then Cioffi was blowing up a month or two later…..

  98. BC Bob says:

    Chi [100],

    Yep. That lit the red light for me.

  99. Frank says:

    Where’s the recession???

    Wells Fargo expects earnings of $3 billion

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Wells-Fargo-expects-earnings-rb-14890079.html

  100. sas says:

    if anyone cares about schools & public education:

    just heard John Taylor Gatto on an interview.

    He is right on the money with what he says.

    I had lunch with him several years ago, everytime I hear him speak, he makes me ponder.
    SAS

  101. grim says:

    Number of people filing first-time unemployment benefits fell 20,000 last week to 654,000, U.S. says. Continuing claims at record.

    Last week’s claims were revised upwards from 669k to 674k.

  102. Frank says:

    SRS will be down to 20s today…

  103. sas says:

    “Where’s the recession???
    Wells Fargo expects earnings of $3 billion”

    i hope they have some earnings after all these banks got billions if not trillions in taxpayer money.

    so..there you go.. there is their earnings. thanks to us, the sucker taxpayer.

    now, put your pants around your ankles…and… you know the routine.

    SAS

  104. Frank says:

    In Hoboken 7 UC this week.
    Look at the prices… You call this a recession??? Give me 2 of them.

    http://hudson.fnismls.com/publink/default.aspx?GUID=be0a3bc9-d930-480e-8d93-b7c6d3ed23e6&Report=Yes

  105. Stu says:

    Highlights of unemployment claims report from Bloomberg.

    Highlights
    Jobless claims data are mixed with initial claims showing some improvement but continuing claims showing deterioration. Initial claims for the April 4 week fell 20,000 to a lower-than-expected level of 654,000 (prior week revised 5,000 higher to 674,000). The latest level, right in the middle of readings over the last eight weeks, still remains extreme.

    Continuing claims, in data for the March 28 week, rose 95,000 to a record level of 5.840 million — confirmation that jobseekers are having a very hard time finding work. Over the last five weeks alone, 766,000 unemployed workers have been added to the continuing claims list. There were no special factors affecting any of the data.

    There’s a lot of economic numbers this morning including a shocking fall in the trade balance, but the jobless claims report indicates little let up in labor force contraction

  106. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    Initial Unemployment Claims in U.S. Exceed 600,000 for 10th Straight Week

    The number of Americans filing first- time claims for unemployment insurance exceeded 600,000 for a 10th straight week and the total collecting benefits increased to a record, signs the labor market remains weak.

    First-time jobless claims fell by 20,000 to 654,000 in the week ended April 4, from a revised 674,000 a week earlier that was the highest since 1982, the Labor Department said today in Washington. The number of people staying on benefit rolls rose to a record 5.84 million in the prior week.

    “There’s nothing positive on the labor market front right now,” Julia Coronado, a senior economist at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York, said before the report.

  107. Stu says:

    Frank:

    “SRS will be down to 20s today…”

    You are not bi. Stop trying to recreate his magic.

  108. BC Bob says:

    Frank [102],

    Even an idiot like you could make billions,[I think] if you borrow $ for zero and lend to credit worthy borrowers. A sloping yield curve turns idiot bankers into geniuses. Best part, no blackbox required.

  109. bi says:

    109#, it is tradeda at $38.5 pre-market. at least it is moving to his direction.

  110. Cindy says:

    http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/04/calistrsnication.html

    This is my retirement fund – CalSTRS. They take about $600. each month out of my check matched by my district. That these yahoos slashed allocations to government bonds etc. and put the funds into stocks, real estate and hedge funds has my blood boiling.

  111. Sean says:

    Heard on Bloomberg this AM. At the current rate of Condo and Townhouse sales in NYC the high end properties it will SIX years to clear out the inventory.

  112. Shore Guy says:

    One more reason to stay away from malls. This comes from WTOP in DC:

    “man commits suicide, lands on teen at NYC mall
    Apr 9th – 6:48am
    NEW YORK (AP) – Authorities say a woman who jumped to her death inside a busy New York City mall landed on a teenager, causing injuries that sent him to a hospital.
    The lower level of the Queens Center Mall was packed with high school students on spring break when the woman jumped Wednesday.
    Seventeen-year-old Derrick Munoz had been sitting in a massage chair with a sign reading, “sit back and relax,” when the woman landed on him.”

    Snip.

    Anyone hear about this?

  113. Frank says:

    #110,
    Did I mentioned that I love 0bama, he’s making me rich.

  114. DL says:

    Shore Guy; Ref 97: That’s the number one reason companies are reluctant to hire in good times in Germany, it’s too expensive to shed workers when times are lean. So they resort to overtime. The unions lobbied for decades to get a 35 hour work week as a way to force job growth but could not get any better than 38.5 hours. Euro-business came to the realization long ago they can no longer afford the social goals that dominated the 80s. One of the reasons Merkel refused to support O’s stimulus request at the G-20 Summit was because Germany will not have the workers to pay back the debt.

  115. sas says:

    “t the current rate of Condo and Townhouse sales in NYC the high end properties it will SIX years to clear out the inventory.”

    conspiracy theory.
    doesn’t exist.
    tinfoil hat stuff.

    please pass the Hg containing soda, if goes well with my serotonin reuptake inhibitors.

    SAS

  116. Sean says:

    re: #112 – Cindy I believe CALPERS along with the NJ Pension fund have been approached by Shelia Blair to invest in cash for trash PPIP program proposed by Treasury Secretary Geithner.

    You may want to organize some of your co-workers and start sharpening up the pitchforks to prevent CALPERS from what remains of your retierment and giving it to the banks for junk CDOs.

    Quote:
    “CalPERS’ assets have shrunk from $239 billion to $175 billion since the fiscal year started July 1. Much of the loss came in the stock market, where CalPERS has nearly 40 percent of its money, but the pension fund also has taken significant losses on hedge funds, real estate”

    http://www.insidebayarea.com/opinion/ci_12099819

  117. Hard Place says:

    More States Look to Raise Taxes

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123923448796803135.html

    In big business, when revenues drop they try to stimulate by cutting prices, innovating or reducing expenses. In big govt when revenues drop they raise prices (taxes) for less services.

  118. Hard Place says:

    I do however like how Bloomberg is shaking up the tree saying they have to cut govt and should expect more cuts. Smart to keep police around, he’ll need it to quell the masses.

  119. Cindy says:

    118 – Sean – I’m CalSTRS. I have not read anything to date of them getting involved in this sham. Believe me, I have been checking.

  120. bi says:

    115#, frank, the rich is not welcomed here unless you made it by long ultrashorts, gold or oil.

  121. BC Bob says:

    bi [124],

    How would you know?

  122. Sastry says:

    #114

    Woman lands in the lap of a young man in a massage chair. That sounds more positive! That would be Faux News type of spin.

    SKF at 75. It is tempting (small funds in an IRA waiting). Reminds me of March 18, 2008 — LEH had great earnings, FNM jumped over 30%. I shorted LEH and FNM after a bit of a run up, but couldn’t last a day because of the highly leveraged position — almost 4x.

    I doubt that the WFC news a strong indicator since banks are getting a once in a lifetime, sweet deal, as BC Bob #110 explained.

    S

  123. Cindy says:

    (118) Sean – We are mentioned in this BusinessWeek article out today, but it says: “We’re definitely in wait-and-see mode.”

    “Should Public Pension Plans Go Toxic?

    http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/content/apr2009/db2009048_589265.htm

  124. stan says:

    Frank,

    Those UC’s in Boken:
    First one asking price is a loss.

    2nd one is 40k less than most recent sale in building.

    The third one is the second with different pictures(it was entered twice)

    4th one was asking 700k 8/08 and is under contract at an asking of 498k.

    5th one: identical apt in building sold for 607k in 2007. Asking here is 539k.

    6th one is a resale for 1025 maxwell, where the owner will make 100k or so after buying preconstruction. It is 100k less than a same sized unit on a higher floor, same view went for 12/1/2008.

    I am on bberry, so I didn’t attach links…look it up. No recession here meat

  125. Five derelicts from Houston sharing one hotel room in Waco?

    I don’t know BC. If there’s a teachable moment here it’s do not share a room with John Wesley Hardin.

  126. Frank says:

    #128,
    These prices are still 5x income and 2x rents that’s my point.

  127. Cindy says:

    http://www.housingwire.com/2009/04/08/tarp-oversight-panel-oust-executives-liquidate-banks/

    TARP oversight panel report – recap – with a link to the PDF 150-page COP report.

  128. skep-tic says:

    man, look at that absorption rate spike! like a stake through the heart of greedy grubbers

  129. stan says:

    Frank: I know. But we are at 2005 pricing. People who bought in the last four years, with some exceptions, have lost money.

    Big amounts of Money. Its not happening overnight, but I imagine you would agree that things will be cheaper in 6 months.
    Next stop 2004.

  130. Sastry says:

    Clot,

    A place we were following for a while (TH in GreenBrook) has been listed at about 485 for a few months. Now it is listed at 460. A 3BR TH with all the stuff…

    Is it worth waiting for tomorrow’s prices or lowball today? I am thinking a bid of 400 [this was close to a distant dream house before the prices started coming down]!

    S

  131. skep-tic says:

    #15

    “Let me know if the graph annotations are helpful.”

    very helpful, but could use some stick figures

  132. AnastasiaBeaverhausen says:

    grim says:
    April 8, 2009 at 7:23 pm

    Let me know if the graph annotations are helpful.

    Very helpful, indeed. Thank you!

  133. HEHEHE says:

    So is this Wells Fargo news the real deal? If so will this be the end of all the bailouts?

  134. comrade nom deplume says:

    [124] bi

    I’m not making any more money than before, and lost a bundle in the market, but I am now rich.

    O’bama said I was.

  135. Al says:

    skep-tic says:
    April 9, 2009 at 9:55 am
    #15
    “Let me know if the graph annotations are helpful.”

    very helpful, but could use some stick figures

    I miss the stick-people falling off the cliff as well…

  136. BC Bob says:

    “Everything that dies someday comes back”

    War bonds are now transformed into Bailout bonds;

    http://www.sonofthesouth.net/uncle-sam/images/war-bonds.jpg

  137. grim says:

    I miss the stick-people falling off the cliff as well…

    http://njrereport.com/images/sueadlerunemployment.gif

  138. yikes says:

    has this glen rock “sexting” story ROM THE MIDDLE SCHOOL gotten any play here?

    blue ribbon my ass …

    http://www.northjersey.com/news/crimeandcourts/cellphotos040709.html

  139. yikes says:

    cliffside park is another lovely bergen county enclave … except for the 22-year-olds looking to get oral from 14-year-olds

    http://www.northjersey.com/news/crimeandcourts/Man_allegedly_had_sex_with_girl.html

  140. Shore Guy says:

    “but I am now rich”

    And, you are amongst the tallest blades of grass, which, the Russian proverb tells us, are the first cut by the sythe.

  141. Shore Guy says:

    And it is close to NY, so it should not affect home values either:

    http://www.northjersey.com/health/healthsurvey0409.html

  142. Al says:

    Recently I see a lot more cops giving tickets. What pisses me off is that when I drive 5mph above speed limit – it is 2 point ticket (on 1@9 speed limit is 50 I drive 55). BUT EVERYBODY passes me.

    People honk flash their lights and cut me off…

    Where is the Police?? But I know that the moment I start driving 60-65 like everybody else I will get a ticket.

  143. Shore Guy says:

    Anyone see this place on Bowery?

    http://www.greendepot.com/greendepot/

  144. yome says:

    Obama takes risky path on immigration

    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/30125477/

    Is it better for illegals start paying their fair share of taxes to get more revenue?

  145. veto says:

    great charts grim, again my empirical evidence from driving around neighborhood and going to open houses is proven wrong. Over last three months, things have been selling in my town left and right for almost full asking price, but as your charts prove, my personal experience isnt the full picture.
    Love the annotations too, sometimes talking to people like they are third grader makes stronger impact.

  146. bi says:

    149#, this is dangerous. first you should trust what you see yourself. the chart doesn’t break down “bad” towns and “good” towns. you would be the first falled into the victim by “scientific numbers”

  147. RayC says:

    Who predicted a major problem coming out of the Horn of Africa? It was just a few days ago in the comments. Now you’ve got me thinking the pirating of the Maersk Alabama is a trap to get US Military in the area.

    Real Estate and conspiracy theories. If I could drink at work the day would be complete.

  148. Nicholas says:

    So explain something here…they remove the requirement to market-to-market and now the banks are reporting huge earnings.

    How does this change anything with how bad the banks balance sheets are? How can you trust reported earnings when mark-to-myth is back on the table?

  149. yome says:

    How many of the 12 million illegals can affordably buy their own homes to get rid of some of the glut in housing?Just a thought.

  150. ConfusedInMontclair says:

    My fiance and I have been going back and forth with this; here’s the situation:

    I bought a 2-bedroom, 2-bath, 2-car garage condo (1100 sq ft) for 325k in the safe part of Montclair (Summer of 2006) I’ve made about 10k of improvements, almost all of this money was devoted to the kitchen. We are toying with the idea of selling the place and taking a loss just to get into a larger dwelling, a single family house in another town w/ lower taxes and no maintenance fees. If the monthly mortgage/taxes/insurance costs will be the same – is this the right thing to do?

    The other option is to wait and be space challenged for 1-2 years…sell the place and THEN buy the house. What I’m worried about is that interest rates will rise and home prices will also go up meaning I will be able to afford a lesser house at that point. I’m not sure if this is the NAR marketing machine making me feel this way or am I correct in this thinking?

    Thoughts?

  151. Shore Guy says:

    Yome,

    I am all for immigration — legal immigration. I find my head spinning when advocates of “providing a path to citizenship for illegal’s” assert something like “these are hardworking honest people.” They well may be hardworking, but honest? Once one has violated the law by arriving on U.S. soil in violation of U.S. law, one should forfeit any opportunity to achieve legal status here without first voluntarily leaving and then getting at the back of the line. Anyone who leaves only after being arrested and deported should forfeit any opportunity to either gain legal entry to the US or become a citizen.

    Until the downside of sneaking in, in violation of law, outweighs the upside, we are never going to get control of the problem.

    Bring on the LEGAL immigrants. These folks refresh society, enhance our republic, and improve our nation. Illegals? As nice as individuals may be, are a negative force.

  152. Stu says:

    Confused in Montclair (154):

    You are suffering a loss already. It is locked in. There is nothing you can do to change that. If it were me, I would sell now, rent for a year or two and buy then. If interest rates go up, home values will fall further. You can always refinance when they come back down. Big thing to consider is cost of moving and realtor commissions. You need to do some serious math to determine if obtaining a larger place with lower taxes is worth the commissions you will pay in buying your next place. Considering you live in Montclair and the tax situation will worsen before it gets better, moving is probably the best move.

  153. HEHEHE says:

    “How does this change anything with how bad the banks balance sheets are? How can you trust reported earnings when mark-to-myth is back on the table?”

    Just rally baby!!! Who cares as long as the market goes up!!!! …sarcasm off

  154. yome says:

    #154 How much lost can you handle?2006 is the height of the market.Sounds like you will be bringing a check during closing to sell the condo + down payment to the new place.Adding closing cost and realtor commission.

  155. Shore Guy says:

    Ray C,

    It was I. The area is a powderkeg and poses risks that most people do not understand. Eritria, Puntland, Somalia, etc., watch out. Do not be surprised to see hostile action against U.S. personnel in Djibouti.

  156. Stu says:

    “Just rally baby!!! Who cares as long as the market goes up!!!! …sarcasm off”

    Barring some kind of undetermined recovery, I fear the fall off in the markets this time will be much more rapid.

  157. Stu says:

    Djibouti? We can easily shake Djibouti. Just need some new records.

  158. skep-tic says:

    #154

    “The other option is to wait and be space challenged for 1-2 years…sell the place and THEN buy the house. What I’m worried about is that interest rates will rise and home prices will also go up meaning I will be able to afford a lesser house at that point.”

    ************

    if interest rates rise, home prices will not be going up. very little chance that prices will be going up at all during the next 2 yrs anyway.

    that said, IMO it is a tough call as to whether you should sell now or later. ordinarily, as a move up buyer I would say you have more to gain from continued price declines since your move up house will fall more in total dollars than your starter home.

    however, because you live in a condo, you may find that the value of your home declines more than single family homes. if you can deal with the hassle, I would agree with the above comment that the best couse is to sell and rent for a couple of years before buying.

  159. BC Bob says:

    “How many of the 12 million illegals can affordably buy their own homes to get rid of some of the glut in housing?Just a thought.”

    yome,

    They’ll put a dent in the glut if they all arrive on bulldozers.

  160. ConfusedInMontclair says:

    Thanks Stu…we are heavily leaning towards that exact scenario. Taking our lumps now as we sell and then renting for 6-12 months to see where the market goes. With the clowns running Montclair my taxes have gone up 60% since August of 2006 and I’m fully expecting increases every year. While I love the town…it just doesn’t make sense to be there anymore.

  161. Shore Guy says:

    Confused,

    The other thing, as I understand things , and Grim and CLot can provide better insight into this, is that condo prices seem to fall further and stay depressed longer than single-family houses. As such, house prices will likely start to rise before your condo price either 1) stops falling or 2) starts rising. It hurts to take a loss but, if one can avoid further loses and achieve additional cost savings from avoiding high taxes, one may do well to sell. On the other hand, if you are able to save for a downpayment without selling and are willing to entertain the idea of using the condo as a rental property for a few years….

  162. chicagofinance says:

    What recession…..
    WSJ
    PAGE ONE APRIL 9, 2009 Dogged Pursuit: Professionals Find New Livelihood Selling Frankfurters
    As Gloom Spreads, Carts Sprout All Over; The Guajardo Family’s Stand in Texas

  163. skep-tic says:

    #154

    note that you can still improve your living situation by renting a single family home in your desired town. the only hassle will be moving again in a couple of years.

  164. Stu says:

    “While I love the town…it just doesn’t make sense to be there anymore.”

    These are thoughts I share regularly with the town council.

    Of course, once all of the lower income residents are priced out, the school system will improve which should have a great benefit to property values. The question is, can one remain solvent long enough to witness the transformation?

  165. Nicholas says:

    Shore,

    I used to work in a short-order kitchen with illegal immigrants. Most of them were very kind, hardworking, trustworthy people. I have no doubt that they broke the law and they knew they were breaking the law.

    I have brothers that, before the downturn, used to employ illegal immigrants on a permanent basis. I never met them but I have heard first hand accounts that these workers were also kind, hardworking, and very trustworthy.

    I think that there is something to be said about the quality of a person that leaves his wife and kids to move to where work can be found and then sends the majority of the proceeds to support them. Help me understand how that level of sacrifice doesn’t trump breaking the law of a foreign country?

    Do I like that they broke the law? No. Do I like that they send money out of the country? No. Do I like that they don’t pay taxes? No. Do I like that they enjoy our social benefits? No.

    Do I think that they should be denied a chance at U.S. Citizenship if they broke immigration laws? No. The ones I have met are of higher moral quality then average Americans.

  166. yome says:

    #155 shore
    I agree with you but what i want to know is what was the effect of the late 1980’s immigration amnesty to the economy of the US.If it was more positive this could help this country again.How many of this illegals made their own business ,hired US citizen help grow the economy.
    I dont seem to find a study about it.

  167. Shore Guy says:

    “Barring some kind of undetermined recovery, I fear the fall off in the markets this time will be much more rapid.”

    The first time the “unthinkable” occurs, it takes everyone by surprise. The second time….

  168. 3b says:

    #150 bi: Still in denial I see. So prices only went down in bad towns, but did not go down in good towns, because you say so.

    The information provided by grim is only valid if it supports your deluions, if not than it is suspect? That seems to be your belief.

  169. Shore Guy says:

    Yome,

    I do not see much evidence that the illegals who have flooded the country are well-capitlized entrepreneurs. Also, regardless of whatever positive economic force they may be, the factt hat they have already proven a willingness to violate federal law should disqualify them from citizenship.

  170. ConfusedInMontclair says:

    How much lost can you handle? 2006 is the height of the market.Sounds like you will be bringing a check during closing to sell the condo + down payment to the new place.Adding closing cost and realtor commission.
    *************************
    I bought this place because it was well within what I could afford at the time and I’ve saved a good amount over the last few years (what a concept) I haven’t talked to realtors as to what this place can realistically sell for yet.

  171. Stu says:

    Nicholas,

    Good point on the immigration topic. If the U.S. removed their immigration quotas, then I would support Shore’s position. Without the quotas, then illegal immigration will continue and a lot of gubmint dollars will be wasted continuing to fight it.

  172. skep-tic says:

    I think we should expel each american who accepts a bailout and take in one hardworking mexican instead.

  173. Stu says:

    “I think we should expel each american who accepts a bailout and take in one hardworking mexican instead.”

    Who do you think is hiring the Mexican’s? Probably the execs who are getting bailed out.

  174. Shore Guy says:

    “Do I think that they should be denied a chance at U.S. Citizenship if they broke immigration laws? No. The ones I have met are of higher moral quality then average Americans.”

    This is a fundamental philosophical difference. Unless the folks leave on their own accord, it should not matter how hardworking, etc. they are. There are pleanty of people who meet those same descriptions who are patiently waiting in line — LEGALLY. Invade the country by violating the immigration law, lose your chance to stay here legally. Without such a policy, we will see the same result that the Roman Empire saw with uncontrolled immigration across the Danybe and the Rhein — where the “invaders” were not seen as invaders but, rather, beneficial supplements to the workforce, who, ironically, would do jobs ROman Citizens would not — including serving in the Legons; Does the name Odoacer ring a bell?

  175. skep-tic says:

    maybe we should put the mexicans in the executive jobs. they have already done the currency collapse thing after all

  176. chicagofinance says:

    Is a Mexican executive a Mexecutive?

  177. comrade nom deplume says:

    [143] shore

    Then where’s my fcuking country club membership, yacht and Bentley, huh???

    Surely I can afford these. After all, I’m rich. Poor Guy and Omama said so.

    I like the Russian proverb. My other favorite is “the whale that comes to the surface gets harpooned.”

    Both remind me of a trip to Corsica; a guide pointed out that houses looked old, small and beaten up because, in olden times, if you looked rich you were a target for maurauding pillagers, and in recent times, this took the form of pillaging by tax collectors. So the europeans have long known that it does no good to appear to be rich.

    Which is why I have to get to work on the estate planning; after I refi, I intend to look like an overextended wage slave, just like everyone else.

  178. comrade nom deplume says:

    [178] shore

    “Does the name Odoacer ring a bell?”

    No, should it? Was he aligned with Alaric of the Visigoths?

  179. Stu says:

    “Mexecutive?”

    ROFL

  180. Shore Guy says:

    “I think we should expel each american who accepts a bailout and take in one hardworking mexican instead.”

    I have no objection, just as long as we take people who went and filled out the forms and waited in line for LEGAL entry.

  181. Nicholas says:

    I taught some english to one who left his wife and new baby. I don’t even begin to know what it would take economically for me to leave my family for a foreign country.

    I don’t think it is a requirement that you be a “well-capitlized entrepreneur” to become a citizen of the United States.

    I agree with you Shore that breaking US law by immigrating illegally is probably going to be a deal breaker. One of the Nine requirements that I found for immigrants is “Good moral character and an affinity for the principles of the U.S. Constitution.” One cannot break laws and continue to observe the above requirement.

  182. Shore Guy says:

    More associated with Theodoric, who kicked his tail, as I recall.

  183. freedy says:

    all you have to do is go some of the towns in nj to see the effect of the
    illegals. Paterson, Passaic, lodi,garfield,jersey city, camden, trenton,dover,elizabeth,englewood,
    like third world countries.

    they all should be arrested and deported

  184. veto says:

    ConfusedInMontclair says:
    “What I’m worried about is that interest rates will rise and home prices will also go up.”

    Confused, just my two cents but that is just not going to happen. Think seesaw with prices on one side and rates on the other. Prices are dropping 10% per year right now. You should sell now and rent until prices drop enough. Dont focus on the loss, think of it as an upfront fee to avoid being severely and miserably upside down for a decade. Also think liquidity and flexibility, there is value to those things. good luck,

  185. Shore Guy says:

    Kettle, I believe we always have, or at least have at various periods.

  186. RayC says:

    Shore Guy,

    I don’t know how to respond after Stu’s “We can easily shake Djibouti.”. I got nothin’ better than that. Back to work…

  187. comrade nom deplume says:

    [187] shore

    Ah yes, but Theodoric was an Ostrogoth.

    Alaric also served as a roman mercenary that turned on his masters, but that must have been before Odoacer.

  188. comrade nom deplume says:

    The NJ Real Estate, Immigration, and Decline of the Roman Empire Report.

  189. BC Bob says:

    “Who do you think is hiring the Mexican’s?”

    Stu,

    Frank?

  190. Shore Guy says:

    “I don’t think it is a requirement that you be a “well-capitlized entrepreneur” to become a citizen of the United States.”

    Nicholas,

    I never asserted that one need be. I, to reiterate, am all for legal immigration — including taking in refugees during or as a result of emergencies. My statement was in response to this question posed by Yome, “How many of this illegals made their own business ,hired US citizen help grow the economy.”

  191. Shore Guy says:

    Nom,

    I would need to check but I believe Odovacer (I see I left out a “v” before) may haqve been a Hun.

    All that aside, the Romans loved having people pour across the borderto do menial jobs so they did not need to . In the end, it upset the societal balance and helped rot-out the once-strong Roman core.

  192. Shore Guy says:

    “shake Djibouti”

    That was K.C. and the Sunshine Band?

  193. kettle1 says:

    Nom,

    Odoacer was a germanic warlord/leader that deposed the western roman emperor and was the first ruler of Italy that wasnt roman. beginning of the end for the western roman empire you could say.

    he helped a roman patrician over through nepos and then ended up over throwing the emperor installed by the patrician he originally helped.

    The point of the story is that a member of the ruling class brought in “foreign” help to win (by force) political power, in this case over throw the emperor. The unintended consequence is that the “foreign” help ended up overthrowing the locals and ruling the entire region of Italy as the first foreign/non-roman leader

    Bringing in foreign help to fight your battles whether political or physical is a dangerous game to play as you can easily end up on the receiving end of said helps spears.

    Lesson of the day: You are better off keeping the “wet” work amongst the family

  194. kettle1 says:

    Nom,

    Theodoric killed Odoacer with his bare hands during a banquet that was held in honor of a peace treaty between the Odacer and Theodoric. This allowed Theodoric to claim leadership

  195. Sean says:

    re: #185 Kettle1 – Bush signed the modern version of Military Service in Exchange for Citizenship after 9/11. Not too many takers however only about 45k have signed up for the program since then.

    Considering we have 12 million+ illegals here now and another 400k+ immigrants who get here legally each year I would say the program is not much of a success.

    Perhaps mandatory service for legal green Card applicants with a fast track for citizenship if you sign up for 6 years.

    For the rest if you are picked up by ICE for being here illegally you can stay and get a green card if you join the Army and sign up to guard a checkpoint in Fallujah or Kandahar.

    Seems fair don’t you think? It would also bolster our Military for the upcoming AfghaPaki war against goat herders and perhaps the coming horn of Africa liberation wars.

  196. Djibouti? We can easily shake Djibouti. Just need some new records.

    Try some of this, it should do the trick.

  197. kettle1 says:

    Shore 196,

    All that aside, the Romans loved having people pour across the border to do menial jobs so they did not need to . In the end, it upset the societal balance and helped rot-out the once-strong Roman core.

    This is an unspeakable concept in modern times. publicly broaching such an issue is tantamount to publicly announcing you are a racist

  198. The Kid says:

    The Kid needs some help from the board. The Kid hates to turn this into a City-Data forum, but would like to hear peoples thoughts on Scotch Plains.

    Are there any neighboorhoods/areas to stay away from? Or focus in on?

    The Kid appreciates any and all feedback.

  199. Shore Guy says:

    Kettle,

    It makes modern-day political squabbles seem wimpy.

    Also, for our Roman scholars, who was the Emperor (Eastern) captured by (the Persians, I believe) who was first employed as a footstool and whose skull was later used as a drinking glass?

  200. Shore Guy says:

    Tosh,

    Nobody dressed like Clinton, George Clinton, that is.

  201. kettle1 says:

    Interesting observation about immigration:

    I have been doing some work off on and on in the heart of Elizabeth for the last 5 years or so. When i started on the project, a majority of the local businesses and homes seemed to be owned and run by blacks. As of today, many of the businesses and homes that were in the immediate vicinity are now owned and run by latin American immigrants.

    Its an interesting example of a incoming culture displacing a pre-existing one.

    I cannot speak for the entire city of Elizabeth, only the area i was working in.

  202. Qwerty says:

    A relative of SAS?

    http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iQNEp6xaJ1ILa-PF8b_lSQstUpLwD97F0PC80

    A highly decorated Navy SEAL who found his beloved yellow Labrador retriever shot dead outside his home helped capture the alleged gunmen following a high-speed chase through three counties.

    Marcus Luttrell stayed on the line with a 911 operator April 1 as he tried to catch the fleeing suspects during the 40-mile chase that reached speeds of over 100 mph.

    “I told them, ‘You need to get somebody out here because if I catch them I’m going to kill them,'” Luttrell said he told the operator, the Houston Chronicle reported.

    “When I saw she [my dog] was dead, the only thing that popped into my head was, I’ve got to take these guys out,” Luttrell said.

  203. kettle1 says:

    Shore,

    I believe that would be Nikephoros I whose head was used as a goblet by king Krum.

  204. chicagofinance says:

    If you want to attend this thing, ya’ let me know…..
    http://monmouth.alumni.cornell.edu/gross.html

  205. Shore Guy says:

    Zippergate! Hey, Chifi. What kind of neighborhood did you move to, anyway?

    http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2009/04/bruce_springsteen_named_as_oth.html

  206. HEHEHE says:

    Keepin it Real Estate: The Stabilization Fallacy

    Despite recent reports to the contrary, the impending stabilization of the housing market is a myth. While declines in certain markets are coming to an end, real estate, in general, is still in freefall.

    Last November, amidst a great deal of media fanfare, Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) enacted a temporary foreclosure moratorium, angling to give renewed loan modification efforts a chance to work. All the major financial news outlets jumped on the story, loudly proclaiming the mortgage giants were doing their part to give the housing market a chance to lick its wounds.

    http://www.minyanville.com/articles/index/a/22113

  207. BC Bob says:

    Chi/Shore,

    Atlantic Club, Red Bank.

  208. Laurie says:

    That Mearsk ship was taking the long route around the horn of Africa which was way she was boarded so far south of where you normally find these ships. The CEO of Maersk decided to go around the Horn of Africa instead of sailing thru the Suez Canal. The trip was going to take a week longer but with the cost of fuel down it seemed like a profitable move…wonder if anyone figured in the extra cost of those pesky hijackings…

  209. Laurie says:

    way=why…sorry

  210. Zack says:

    Took a small position with BAC, going long ,after WFC news. My hope is if the market closes towards the high of the day, we will continued momentum on Monday until S&P 880. Will exit out of my BAC position when that happens. If not, I will go back into my hole.

  211. Shore Guy says:

    And this is THE video for the RE Bubble:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fR0Te8GOyCc&feature=related

  212. kettle1 says:

    SAS, or anhone else,

    I dont know the laws of the sea, but why dont these shipping companies start hiring Mercs to ride shotgun while going around the horn of africa, Its shouldnt be to hard to prevent the hijacking.

    You could setup a round robin. A 5 man team with 2 fast boats and reasonable weaponry ( a sniper+ coms+ heavyrifle, 50 cal + 2 riflemen) should be able to deter the majority of pirates. The team escorts a ship through the danger zone and then circles back around and escorts the next ship through.

  213. comrade nom deplume says:

    [209] kettle

    Now I have my model for governance of the Nompound.

    Or Will Patton’s character, General Bethlehem from “The Postman.”

  214. kettle1 says:

    SAS

    want to start a business venture? a few DOD contacts and we’re good to go.

  215. Shore Guy says:

    “CEO of Maersk decided to go around the Horn of Africa ”

    No. You are either thinking of Cape Horn, at the south of South America, or the Cape of Good Hope, in Africa. The Horn of Africa is the eastern-pointing cape that sticks out towards the Indian Ocean by the Arabian peninsula. The reason the Pirates went out where the ship was is beacuse of the increased Naval presence in the Gulf of Aden.

  216. kettle1 says:

    Nom 221

    King Krum had Nikephoros I’s skull made into a silver-lined goblet from which visiting Byzantine ambassadors were thereafter forced to drink a toast

  217. kettle1 says:

    SHore,

    is there international law that prevents the shipping companies from bringing in mercs to deal with the pirates?

  218. Shore Guy says:

    Ket,

    We used to arm merchant ships.

  219. BC Bob says:

    kettle [220],

    Special ops could clean it up in no time.

  220. comrade nom deplume says:

    [220] kettle,

    “why dont these shipping companies start hiring Mercs to ride shotgun”

    Insurance. Paradoxically, the insurance companies don’t want arms on vessels. This makes some sense in that it would likely result in an escalation of tactics, resulting in damage to ships and cargoes as crews and pirates duke it out with RPGs and shoulder-fired missles.

    Personally, I think that putting small crews of Marines or special ops forces on US flagged merchants, who have the ability to interdict pirates and call in close air support (nothing like having an A-10 bearing down on your zodiac to give you the sh1ts), would be quite the effective deterrent.

  221. Young Buck says:

    kettle1 says:
    April 9, 2009 at 11:51 am
    Interesting observation about immigration:

    Re: Elizabeth

    Just curious. Where exactly is the “heart of Elizabeth” that you’re referring to? I’ve lived in Elizabeth my entire life (born & raised), and I can’t think of any one area that the businesses were predominately owned by blacks. Disclaimer: I’m only 26 years old.

  222. comrade nom deplume says:

    [224] kettle

    I think the Nompound will have such a goblet, carved from the skull of a liberal tax collector.

    BWAHAHAHAHA!

    Okay, megalomanical delusion over. Back to work.

  223. comrade nom deplume says:

    megalomaniacal, even.

  224. kettle1 says:

    Young Buck,

    The western half of the circle formed by elmora/north ave

  225. poor guy says:

    “Special ops could clean it up in no time.”

    Why should we pay to protect private profit making activities from the somali tax? For the same reason we pay banks to crash estimates

  226. Shore Guy says:

    ignore the odd caps. blasted thumb keyboard.

  227. grim says:

    From the Star Ledger:

    N.J. housing exec Wayne Puff admits $80 million real-estate Ponzi scheme

    A New Jersey man who federal authorities say cheated investors and mortgage lenders out of $80 million in a real estate Ponzi scheme has pleaded guilty.

    With about a dozen of his more than 500 victims looking on in federal court in Newark, Wayne Puff pleaded guilty today to conspiracy to commit wire fraud.

    Puff founded New Jersey Affordable Mortgage Corp. and has been in custody since his arrest last June.

    Federal prosecutors say he raised more than $100 million by promising investors returns of 15 percent or more, but used the money to make principal and interest payments to previous investors.

  228. Shore Guy says:

    The solution to piracy lies on land, not at sea — not that we should not sink every pirate vessel.

  229. Shore Guy says:

    “A New Jersey man who federal authorities say cheated investors and mortgage lenders out of $80 million in a real estate Ponzi scheme ”

    At one level, it leaves one feeling like a bit of an underachiever.

    Time to do some business.

  230. kettle1 says:

    Nom,

    This Nompound thing is starting to sound like some serious fun! Guns, Bunkers, Skull Goblets…… where does the fun stop?

  231. Stu says:

    “Skull Goblets?”

    Sounds more like a renaissance fair to me. Will we have to don leotards to join?

  232. freedy says:

    BAC pushing 9

  233. Shore Guy says:

    “don leotards to join”

    No offense Stu but, I think we would pay not to see that.

  234. Rich In NNJ says:

    Nice to check in from time to time and see that Frank hasn’t a clue.

    Rich

  235. BC Bob says:

    “BAC pushing 9”

    Approx 80% off its 07′ high. Fantastic, get the pom-poms out.

  236. freedy says:

    well, i would have the pom poms out
    if i owned it from ,, lets say 3/4

  237. BC Bob says:

    [247],

    I do, 4.42, and realize it’s a pos/artifically manipulated. Will be kicking out soon. No need for pom poms.

    $9, some solace for those holding it in the 30’s, 40’s and 50’s. No?

  238. freedy says:

    lots of bag holders thats for sure.

  239. chicagofinance says:

    No…this is the video….

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5bsXOcK9_Cw

  240. about says:

    hi.. we have been the ‘on the fence’ first time home buyers for the past 2 years.. We rent now and are doing well saving. We aren’t in a rush to buy, but have been reading all the arguments being made for it to be the time to buy.
    We were thinking of making an offer on a home we like, using 1999 as the go-to year for price. Getting a home at that price, with this interest rate, and the $8,000 incentive, are we still crazy for thinking to buy? any thoughts.

  241. syncmaster says:

    I know this isn’t the best place to ask about P-way but I’ll put it out there anyway in case anyone knows…

    Does anyone know what all the construction activity is on 1 Possumtown Rd in Pisc at away? I had heard rumors years ago of what would be built there but years have passed so I’m assuming plans may have changed, esp. with the economy the way it is.

  242. yikes says:

    what was the shakira song? hips dont lie?

    well lines don’t lie. i dont care if Abercrombie is down 35%, there’s a line out the door everytime i walk by the place.

    what recession?

  243. Shore Guy says:

    A note from Eddie Cochran about this summer’s RE sales season:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zvn4KvBurcU

  244. grim says:

    I bought a 2-bedroom, 2-bath, 2-car garage condo (1100 sq ft) for 325k in the safe part of Montclair (Summer of 2006) I’ve made about 10k of improvements, almost all of this money was devoted to the kitchen. We are toying with the idea of selling the place and taking a loss just to get into a larger dwelling, a single family house in another town w/ lower taxes and no maintenance fees. If the monthly mortgage/taxes/insurance costs will be the same – is this the right thing to do?

    No big deal, the transaction is a wash.

    Sure, maybe you lose some money on the existing property, but the same discount would apply to the property you plan to purchase.

    Am I totally off base on this?

    The other suggestion I’ll offer is to tell you to sell your existing property, before committing to a purchase.

    As far as losses go, IMHO, if you are going to be selling in the current market, Montclair isn’t a bad place to be doing it.

    If you are moving out of town, you are in a unique situation. Montclair properties have held value well, all things considered, but towns very near have taken must deeper hits. You can play a sort of localized geo-arbitrage game here, taking a smaller discount on your sale and a larger discount on the purchase. Not saying you won’t be taking a hit on the sale, but the bigger picture might make sense.

    Who knows, you might just be surprised at what you can get for it.

  245. veto says:

    about,
    good luck getting a 1999 price in a decent town thats not a knock down. We are roughly at 2004 prices now. If you get a 1999 price, i would be all over it. Estimates vary on this board but the worst case i remember hearing is that we crash back to 1997 prices.
    My personal belief is that we’ll go back to 2000-01 prices by 2015 on an inflation adjusted basis.

  246. grim says:

    Getting a home at that price, with this interest rate, and the $8,000 incentive, are we still crazy for thinking to buy? any thoughts.

    A ’99 price on a purchase? This would be, by far, one of the steepest discounts I’ve ever heard of.

    I’ve got comp killers at 50% off peak, but even with that big drop, these properties are still pricing at higher than ’99 levels.

    If you can get that price, it makes sense. Properties were very affordable in ’99. Question is, can you get that price? If so, I’ll ask, why aren’t there a dozen bidders after the place?

  247. grim says:

    ’99 pricing would be, roughly, 50% off current levels, and about 63% off peak levels.

    We’re talking a $500k peak price trading at close to $200k.

  248. grim says:

    From NJBiz:

    PNC survey: N.J. business owners become more gloomy

    Digging in and pulling back: that’s the posture of New Jersey’s middle-market firms as they focus on surviving the recession, according to the latest PNC Economic Outlook survey.

    Seven out of 10 of the state’s business owners plan to cut capital investment in their businesses, 59 percent expects profits to fall and 46 percent see their sales contracting.

    “These findings support PNC’s forecast that the U.S. economy will continue to suffer into the second half of this year,” said Stuart Hoffman, chief economist for the PNC Financial Services Group. “We forecast only a small positive for real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2009 as the economy waits for 2010 to feel real traction from the various federal policy stimulus initiatives.”

    The New Jersey results are in line with the bank’s national telephone survey of small and middle-market business owners, conducted between Jan. 26 and March 4; a total of 1,261 interviews were conducted, including 167 in New Jersey. The twice-yearly survey finds New Jersey businesses owners are more pessimistic than last fall, according to PNC.

    Some other results from the New Jersey business owners:

    About 32 percent are pessimistic about their own business’s prospects for the next six months

    An overwhelming majority—88 percent—believes home prices will either remain the same or decline over the next six to 12 months.

    Just over half, or 51 percent, say the federal fiscal stimulus will help the economy—and 49 percent say there will be no benefit at all.

    A majority of businesses, or 54 percent, said falling energy prices are having a positive impact on their business.

  249. freedy says:

    casino rev. in nj in free fall.
    down 20%

  250. we says:

    “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful”.

  251. veto says:

    going to memphis next week,
    may have time for a nice restaurant and maybe one tourist trap.
    any suggestions?
    I may take a peek at graceland using audio tour, i can press ffwd and rush through the gaudi decor.

  252. 3b says:

    #262one tourist trap.

    Corky’s.

  253. comrade nom deplume says:

    [240] kettle,

    Let’s not forget all the booze I am stockpiling (albeit slowly). Gotta have something to drink from the Skull Goblet. (I seriously have to go online and see if there is a fake skull goblet I can buy for a future GTG).

    Now, stop feeding my delusions of grandeur. I have to get back to work.

  254. grim says:

    Whale in the Hudson.

    Gold coast is prime, where else can you see a whale from your condo window?

  255. kettle1 says:

    Nom, 264

    I expect to see you drinking form this at the next GTG

    http://www.gothicplus.com/index.php?act=viewProd&productId=941

  256. ruggles says:

    Gold coast is prime, where else can you see a whale from your condo window?

    –across the street from a Curves?

  257. kettle1 says:

    Grim,

    you might be interested to note that i am working on expanding the affordability analysis that i posted on briefly the other day. One thing i have found is that NJ seems to be less bubbly at the state level then the northeast is as a region. data will be forth coming.

  258. comrade nom deplume says:

    Words cannot describe how tragic this is. I know people get killed on our roads every day by trailer trash like this Gallo person, but this is especially poignant.

    LOS ANGELES, California (CNN) — Los Angeles Angels pitcher Nick Adenhart was among three people killed in a crash in Fullerton, California, early Thursday, according to the team and a hospital spokesman.

    Adenhart, 22, from Silver Spring, Maryland, died at UC Irvine Medical Center, according to spokesman John Murray.

    “The Angels family has suffered a tremendous loss today,” Tony Reagins, the team’s general manager, said in a written statement. “We are deeply saddened and shocked by this tragic loss. Our thoughts and prayers go out to Nick’s family, friends, loved ones and fans.”

    One person was arrested in connection with the three-vehicle accident occurred about 12:23 a.m. Thursday in Fullerton, south of Los Angeles. Witnesses say a red minivan ran a red light and struck two vehicles at a Fullerton intersection, police Lt. Craig Brower told CNN.

    One of the vehicles, a gray Mitsubishi, slammed into a power pole, Brower said. Two of its passengers were dead at the scene, he said. The other two were transported to UC Irvine Medical Center.

    Murray said Adenhart underwent surgery and died at the hospital, but did not know if he died during or after the procedure. Brower said the remaining passenger was in critical condition.

    The Angels said the two dead at the scene included the female driver of the Mitsubishi and another male. No other members of the Angels organization were involved, the team said.

    Adenhart reportedly was “in bad condition at the scene,” team spokesman Tim Mead told reporters, and there wasn’t much that could be done for him at the hospital. He died “mid- to late morning,” Mead said.

    A passenger in the minivan was taken to a hospital with minor injuries, Brower said. The third vehicle sustained minor damage, and its driver was unhurt, he said. Police did not identify any of the dead.

    The minivan’s driver fled the scene and was later arrested, Brower said. Andrew Thomas Gallo, 22, of Riverside will face charges of manslaughter, felony driving under the influence and hit-and-run, he said.
    _____________________________

    He had just made his big league debut and pitched six no-hit innings. He could have been the next Glavine.

  259. BC Bob says:

    “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful”.

    And demand/receive 10% on preferred.

  260. kettle1 says:

    a forshadowing of US state/ federal measures to come?

    Ireland imposes emergency cuts

    Dublin has unveiled the harshest austerity measures in the history of the Irish Republic, raising taxes and slashing expenditure in an emergency budget despite mounting evidence that the country is already tipping into debt deflation. Brian Lenihan, the finance minister, outlined a grim package of 1930s-style retrenchment, slashing child benefit and allowances for jobseekers. Road and railways projects will be frozen. There will be a cull of junior ministers save costs. Two-thirds of the belt-tightening will come from tax rises. A pension levy of 1pc – imposed in the face of bitter protests in January – will be doubled to 2pc. “These measures will reduce all our living standards. I’m acutely aware of that,” Mr Lehinan told the Dail. He said draconian measures were needed to stop the budget deficit spiralling to 13pc of GDP.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/5121728/Ireland-imposes-emergency-cuts.html

  261. 3b says:

    #270 BC Bob: And 40% off peak!!

  262. we says:

    http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2002/04/01/320622/index.htm

    By Anna Bernasek
    April 1, 2002

    In the first quarter of 2001 the average price of a single-family home there rose 4%, but by the end of the year had fallen 7%. “We’re seeing a bubble bursting right now in San Francisco,” says Robert Shiller, an economics professor at Yale University and partner at Case Weiss Shiller.

  263. grim says:

    Some Bergen County Stats (NJMLS)
    SFH, Condo, Coop

    First Quarter Sales
    2004 – 1903
    2005 – 1925
    2006 – 1670
    2007 – 1724
    2008 – 1160
    2009 – 853 (Down 26.5% YOY, Down 55.7% from peak)

    First Quarter Contracts
    2004 – 2570
    2005 – 2600
    2006 – 2320
    2007 – 2418
    2008 – 1623
    2009 – 1354 (Down 16.6% YOY, Down 47.9% from peak)

    First Quarter Average/Median Sale Price
    2004 – $452,471/$370,000
    2005 – $515,234/$428,000
    2006 – $623,703/$475,000
    2007 – $566,555/$450,000
    2008 – $603,777/$449,950
    2009 – $514,955/$400,000
    Average down 17.5% from peak
    Median down 15.8% from peak

  264. kettle1 says:

    Holy $hit, i didnt know that HIghlander was a real movie!!!!

    Obama to Look at Climate Engineering

    The president’s new science adviser said Wednesday that global warming is so dire, the Obama administration is discussing radical technologies to cool Earth’s air. John Holdren told the Associated Press in his first interview since being confirmed last month that the idea of geoengineering the climate is being discussed. One such extreme option includes shooting pollution particles into the upper atmosphere to reflect the sun’s rays. Mr. Holdren said such an experimental measure would only be used as a last resort. “It’s got to be looked at,” he said. “We don’t have the luxury of taking any approach off the table.”

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123920773503201665.html

  265. comrade nom deplume says:

    [266] kettle

    Besides being $350, if you remember the small animal you and William met, you would know I couldn’t possibly drink from a skull bearing his name.

  266. bi says:

    246#, does it mean there is huge room for growth? you see 80% glass empty but i see 20% glass full.

    > BC Bob says:
    April 9, 2009 at 1:27 pm
    “BAC pushing 9″

    Approx 80% off its 07′ high.

  267. d2b says:

    Anybody think that the Wells Fargo announcement had anything to do with the Berkshire rating cut?

  268. 3b says:

    #274 grim: Well we are moving on the right direction (slowly).

    I would have thought based on the last decline that prices would have fallen at a much swifter pace.

    Perhaps this DOA selling season (as Clot calls it), will quickly hasten the decline process.

  269. veto says:

    SRS down 18% at 35 right now.
    Ive been trading in and out of this thing for 6 months straight now but the pace of this particular leg down is pretty scary.
    Is anyone buying this rock at these levels?

  270. comrade nom deplume says:

    [275] ket,

    “i didnt know that HIghlander was a real movie!!!!”

    There can be only one!

  271. 3b says:

    #258 grim:We’re talking a $500k peak price trading at close to $200k.

    What if the peak price for argument sakes should have only been 400K, and that last 20% increase, is just froth that should be blown right off the top?

  272. zieba says:

    We should incorporate or link to interactive polling/voting buttons where we can log the boards views on how long and deep the downturn will be. It can also give us an idea of the size of the participating base etc…

    I can see prices slicing right through grim’s worse predictions if things really spiral out of control. Then again, never underestimate the power of the government and the good ole boy club.

    I found this site:

    http://www.vizu.com

  273. bi says:

    280#, stu is a happy holder since he beats the market by at least 10% (his loss is only 8% assuming his cost is $100).

  274. grim says:

    Bergen County PRIME
    Allendale, Franklin Lakes, Glen Rock, Ho Ho Kus, Mahwah, Midland Park, Oakland, Ramsey, Ridgewood, Saddle River, Upper Saddle River, Waldwick, Wyckoff
    SFH, Condo, Coop

    First Quarter Sales
    2003 – 421
    2004 – 417
    2005 – 377
    2006 – 343
    2007 – 380
    2008 – 261
    2009 – 184 (Down 29.5% YOY, Down 56.3% from peak)

    First Quarter Contracts
    2003 – 494
    2004 – 608
    2005 – 550
    2006 – 504
    2007 – 563
    2008 – 392
    2009 – 290 (Down 26% YOY, Down 52.3% from peak)

    First Quarter Average/Median Sale Price
    2003 – $588,527/$467,000
    2004 – $608,948/$500,000
    2005 – $693,473/$576,000
    2006 – $797,591/$655,000
    2007 – $723,178/$548,700
    2008 – $819,467/$560,000
    2009 – $751,410/$532,500
    Average down 8.3% from peak
    Median down 18.8% from peak

  275. bi says:

    where is frank? we really need him at this difficult time.

  276. BC Bob says:

    “you see 80% glass empty but i see 20% glass full.”

    Bi,

    I see an Eveready Energizer Bunny whose batteries are charged every time Larry Crudelow farts. Why do your batteries go dead when the market is down on the day?

  277. veto says:

    Just received the most recent GS Economic Analysis. Its Entitled ‘Hyperventilating about Hyperinflation’ and explains why they dont think there will be hyperinflation upon recovery.

    Summary:
    A lot of people in the financial markets are
    hyperventilating about hyperinflation these
    days as the Federal Reserve commits what
    many view as the cardinal sin of central
    banking monetizing government debt.
    As readers of our research know well, we see
    deflation as the main price-related risk
    facing the US economy in coming years.
    This reflects the emergence of the largest
    output gap in three-quarters of a century.
    Closing that gap will take years, providing
    the Fed with plenty of time to restore its
    balance sheet to a more traditional position.
    But what if consumers, businesses, and
    banks suddenly redeploy the trillions of
    dollars now sitting idle in reserve accounts at
    the Fed and in bank deposits, causing a
    classic case of too much money chasing too
    few goods? This is the hyperinflationary
    scenario that troubles many observers.
    Although this is highly unlikely in our view,
    the Fed has several ways to deal with it if it
    does occur. The main ones: (1) shelve plans
    to buy securities, (2) shut down liquidity and
    other short-term facilities, and (3) manage
    current security holdings by letting maturing
    issues run off, selling them, or using them to
    drain reserves via reverse repurchase
    agreements. The Fed could also lean harder
    on the Supplementary Financing Program
    (SFP), seek authority to issue its own debt
    and boost interest rates on both federal funds
    and bank reserves if it wanted to keep some
    of the balance-sheet expansion in place.
    A more legitimate concern, beyond the scope
    of the current analysis, is the possibility that
    large budget deficits will be allowed to
    persist even after the economy improves to
    the point that it can withstand fiscal restraint.
    However, the implications for inflation are
    still subject to the Feds long-term conduct
    of monetary policy, about which we have
    considerable confidence.

  278. zieba says:

    #258 grim:We’re talking a $500k peak price trading at close to $200k.

    “What if the peak price for argument sakes should have only been 400K, and that last 20% increase, is just froth that should be blown right off the top?”

    ********************

    Yes, yes, yes. I am a big proponent of this theory. At the peak pricing was so irrational that we must peg the peak at a point at which significant volume halted. Those last few hypo sales at 500K didn’t have the kind of volume behind them that the 400’s and even the 450’s or 475’s had. Those were pure suckers, volume dried up, spread widened.

    This is what makes some on this blog grim-er… we can easily tack on another 10-15% at the bottom. Volume there, as with the upside, will also be very low and it will spring back quickly, but it can happen.

  279. kettle1 says:

    re 275,

    opps, that would be Highlander II: The Quickening

  280. bi says:

    288, as i mentioned here when you were away, i only showed up when i can breath since i am deeply in the water (as folks here imagined).

  281. kettle1 says:

    Veto,

    memphis? my condolences. At least you could pick up some hard to find firearms at bargain prices. If you dont mind the serial numbers mysteriously wearing off.

    ________________________

    Nom,

    Sir william is particularly fond of 4 legged fuzzy creatures.

  282. 3b says:

    #286 grim: Not to be ungrateful, but how about some stats on Bergen Co not so prime, such as,

    Bergenfield, New Milford River Edge Oradell Paramus, Westwood Hillsadle etc.?

  283. bi says:

    as i said last friday, you might want to load some s*s at the close today if you were on long side and had strong gain this week. but again, i have to reiterate my position: these ultrashorts are not for long run.

  284. zieba says:

    bi is starting to sound like the fortune cookie in my sesame chicken combo.

  285. 3b says:

    #286 grim: it looks like 07 first quarter was higher than 08, if I am reading that right.

    That seems odd to me, as the peak was Spring 06. Am I missing something?

    2007 – $766,849/$548,700
    2008 – $819,467/$560,000

  286. Painhrtz says:

    Uggh The Quickening, anything with Mario Van Peebles should be avoided. Especially Jaws 4!

    Here is a house the wife and I have wanted but felt it was overpriced. at 475K MLS#2591501

    Fianlly got the nerve to request information on the place, to try my hand at a lowball of 400K. Performed a tax record search and they paid over 580 on the place in 2004. Ouch! I guess I’ll wait until the bank takes it

  287. bi says:

    zieba, i am serious. it is long weekend if you like what you hold and want to hedge market risk. s*s is a good option for this purpose. but i don’t think it worths for more than 1 week. i hope bsd agency CMBS bond trader Frank can give more insight. happy easter!

  288. BC Bob says:

    “(3) manage current security holdings by letting maturing issues run off, selling them, or using them to
    drain reserves via reverse repurchase
    agreements.”

    [289],

    Just drain reserves? HAH, HAH. In normal tightening the fed sells reserves and takes dollars out of circulation. They would be selling their balance sheet, normally pristine treas securities. Well, take a look at their current balance sheet, a bunch of crap that nobody wants. Why, in a tightening mode, will the market part with dollars on their balance sheet to buy this garbage from the fed?

    Did GS present this with a straight face?

  289. grim says:

    #286 grim: it looks like 07 first quarter was higher than 08, if I am reading that right.

    That seems odd to me, as the peak was Spring 06. Am I missing something?

    The numbers are what they are.

    But keep in mind we’re talking about low sample sizes. There was a big drop off in sales in q1 2008.

    There were a few very large transactions in q1 of 2008 that would have had a large impact on the average price.

    199E Saddle River Road, Saddle River – $12,300,000
    907 Sciotto Drive, Franklin Lakes – $6,900,000

  290. Zack says:

    Amazing to see BAC rocket in price.
    Someone is seriously wrong. People who are buying now or people who are selling now.
    35% gain in one day!
    It takes years to make that return during normal times..

  291. yome says:

    #289 veto

    Will inflation not be the Feds recourse to get more revenue.

  292. Qwerty says:

    Apparently a mortgage broker in CA lost their car to theft/repossession and it landed in Baghdad:

    http://www.breitbart.com/image.php?id=app-6e2cb8f7-ba84-48ad-84c3-1e4a5de11666&show_article=1&article_id=D97F42B83

    California plate: “I Love 2 Loan”

  293. Ben says:

    “Amazing to see BAC rocket in price.
    Someone is seriously wrong. People who are buying now or people who are selling now.
    35% gain in one day!
    It takes years to make that return during normal times..”

    I find it amazing that people are willing to buy stock in a company that has shown great resilience in completely looting their shareholders of their investment for years without any significant changes in the staff of upper management. People buying into this stuff deserve to get wiped out. They might as well just have given their money to Bernie Madoff after it was announced that he was a fraud.

  294. kettle1 says:

    Why home prices may never recover

    Two years away from the peak of the great housing bubble, the talk has turned to whether we’ve reached a bottom. And whenever there is talk of a bottom, there is the inevitable talk of recovery, the speculation about just how long — five years? 10? — it will take for us to get back to where we were. Even at this point, the idea that there is simply no going back — not for decades — is still hard to stomach for Americans who have never seen or imagined a more or less permanent drop in value of housing. It’s time, however, to start thinking about the likelihood that even when the worst of the financial crisis is over, the dow

    http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Banking/HomebuyingGuide/why-home-prices-may-never-recover.aspx?page=allnward trend in housing prices will persist.

  295. kettle1 says:

    BC

    Japan has now passed 2 100+ billion $ bailout packages in the last week. hows Mrs Wantanabe doing?

  296. Ben says:

    Veto, if GS is reporting that hyperinflation is not going to happen, they are secretly going to reiterating this point while they quietly short treasuries behind closed doors just like they did with subprime mortgages.

  297. bi says:

    304#, at a short-term basis, the market always acts in an exaggrating way but you have to admit today’s movement is driven by “fundamentals” in coporate world: from WFC and Walmart, not from congress or omama.

  298. BC Bob says:

    kettle [306],

    Funny, how have their 18 years of previous stimulus packages fared?

  299. veto says:

    BC asks: ‘Did GS present this with a straight face?’
    Very sincere indeed. They list six analysts on the cover. What is your email? i’ll fwd. Whether you agree with the conclusion or not, its thorough research.

  300. 3b says:

    #301 grim: Got it, thanks.

  301. bi says:

    S*S is traded under $33, down 24%. in short-term, it is totally detached from fundamentals. have manhattan office buildings appreciated 12% from 9:00 am this morning?

  302. grim says:

    #301 grim: Got it, thanks.

    If I look at that same “Prime” area, SFH only.

    I get the following descriptive statistics

    Current Price

    Mean 936052.8
    Standard Error 75714.77746
    Median 685000
    Standard Deviation 1084070.635
    Range 12252000
    Minimum 48000
    Maximum 12300000
    Count 205

  303. veto says:

    Yome asks: “Will inflation not be the Feds recourse to get more revenue.”

    Sorry Yome, I do not know. It seems obvious that inflation is lesser of two evils but i am not economist.
    And i see inflation as a way to shrink the debt, not increase revenue. but what are you referring to? you may be right.

  304. grim says:

    That $12.3m sale is more than 10 standard deviations above the mean. If I pull that sale out as an outlier, the mean falls by more than $50k.

  305. Sean says:

    BC Bob – re: Hyperinflation

    Remember Newton’s Fourth Law of Motion and Markets…”What Goldman wants, Goldman gets”.

    Lawyers for Goldman Sachs are threatening a federal lawsuit against a blog that is critical of the investment bank.

    The website “Facts About Goldman Sachs” states that it is an “open forum for facts and discussion about what part Goldman Sachs and their executives played in the current Global Economic Crisis.” It is, as you can imagine, extremely critical of the investment bank. Now lawyers from the law firm Chadbourne & Parke have sent a letter to the proprietor, Mike Morgan, claiming that the website’s URL, goldmansachs666.com, infringes on the investment bank’s trademark.

    “Your use of the mark GOLDMAN SACHS violates several of Goldman Sachs’ intellectual property rights, constitutes an act of trademark infringement, unfair competition and implies a relationship and misrepresents commercial activity and/or an affiliation between you and Goldman Sachs which does not exist and additionally creates confusion in the marketplace,” Goldman’s lawyer writes. (The full letter is below.)

    The letter goes on to threaten legal action if Morgan does not stop using the name Goldman Sachs…

    …The unfair competition claim is laughable, since no services are being offered for sale at all on the site. It certainly isn’t engaged in any investment banking business. Also, the website does not even appear on the first page of search results for “Goldman Sachs.”…

    http://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-seeks-to-stifle-blogger-critic-2009-4

  306. poor guy says:

    304 ben

    if you invest from an ethics point of view (ethics is a long term strategy) then you should short it

  307. poor guy says:

    279 3b

    how do you expect that the prices around here fall swiftly as the industry that obama decided to support is the finance ny based one?

  308. 3b says:

    #319 poor: That has nothing to do with it. the finance industry around makes up around 200K people. Of that number more than 53% make 100K or less a year. That wall st money blue ribbon train town spiel is a realtor myth.

  309. Sastry says:

    I will ask the general audience this one… (posted earlier)

    A place we were following for a while (TH in GreenBrook) has been listed at about 485 for a few months. Now it is listed at 460. A 3BR TH with all the stuff…

    Is it worth waiting for tomorrow’s prices or lowball today? I am thinking a bid of 400 [this was close to a distant dream house before the prices started coming down]!

  310. poor guy says:

    3b

    I would think that 94K people over $100K make a difference. How do you explain it?

  311. grim says:

    I need to write up a post about the issues of making population estimates using samples (sales) in real estate.

    Given the sample statistical data posted in #313, we can infer the following about the population:

    High Estimate = 936052.8 + (1.96 x 75714.78)
    Low Estimate = 936052.8 + (1.96 x 75714.78)

    Given the Q1 sales in 2008, in the towns listed, we know the median price of the entire population of homes in those towns would be between:

    $787,651.83 – $1,084,453.77

    With 95% certainty.

    Was the median price for the entire set of towns $787k? Maybe. Was it $1.08m? Maybe. That is a $300k range, that isn’t useful at all! Yep…

  312. poor guy says:

    sastry

    if it is worth waiting then stop looking. Told my agent to send me listings when prices are at 2002 level (per grim’s advice)

  313. Sastry says:

    bi #294

    “i have to reiterate my position: these ultrashorts are not for long run.”

    Technically, no “ultra stuff” is for the long term since the maintenance fees are so high (check UYG vs SKF — exact opposites for periods of 6 mos+, both lost a lot of money).

    That is one reason I am holding off on SKF or SRS buy in an IRA account. One of the reasons I am thinking more about SPY or XLK.

    S

  314. Ben says:

    “how do you expect that the prices around here fall swiftly as the industry that obama decided to support is the finance ny based one?”

    Despite the fact that they poured billions into Wall St., the layoff numbers are what matters. The fact is, Layoffs in finance in this area are through the roof.

  315. poor guy says:

    325 ben

    I would think too. do you have estimates/data about those layoffs? What is the unemployment % in ny finance? Does anyone know?

  316. Sastry says:

    Perfect hedge :)
    SKF and UYG… both lost between 60 to 65% in a 6 mo period [oct 10 to today].

    If I were Goldman, I could claim “completely hedged” and collect bailout money for both!

    S

  317. 3b says:

    #322 poor:94K people over $100K make a difference. How do you explain it?

    And how many of them have houses already,a nd as such would not out be looking?

  318. 3b says:

    #321 sastry:lowball today

    Lowball today. All they can do is say no.

  319. Sastry says:

    poor guy:

    “if it is worth waiting then stop looking.”

    Do you mean “it is worth waiting”, or do you mean I should evaluate whether it is worth waiting?

    One simple answer is that we can wait, and we can jump if a great deal comes across. But, as Clot said earlier, it is an active process. I was wondering if lowball and wait approach is enough (or it is pointless)?

  320. Sean says:

    Right we can’t open our contract.

    New York State Union Rejects Offer to Avoid Layoffs

    ALBANY, N.Y. (AP) — New York’s largest union says it won’t accept an offer floated this week by the Paterson administration to avoid mass layoffs by accepting smaller raises and a no-layoff guarantee for two years.

    Civil Service Employees Association spokesman Stephen Madarasz says the union can’t reopen its contract because it would set a debilitating precedent. Madarasz says leaking the offer is a political ploy to build public support against the union.

    Errol Cockfield, spokesman for Gov. David Paterson, didn’t immediately comment.

    Paterson is seeking to reopen contracts to gain concessions. He wants state unions to give up this year’s 3 percent raises as a way to avoid as many as 8,900 layoffs.

    http://www.1010wins.com/New-York-State-Union-Rejects-Offer-to-Avoid-Layoff/4174740

  321. poor guy says:

    sastry

    lowball is no risk so OK and sends good message. If you afford the time (given the chances)…

  322. BC Bob says:

    “how do you expect that the prices around here fall swiftly as the industry that obama decided to support is the finance ny based one?”

    So in other words O will wave a magic wand and bring back the more than 100K industry jobs that have been lost? The old WS is gone, kaput. Going forward, the deluxe toaster wins.

  323. poor guy says:

    329 3b

    dunno. it is not only a mater buying/selling but can afford to own and afford to wait. The effect is prominent at the counties they inhabit show the correlation is too strong if you ask me.

  324. poor guy says:

    333 bc

    “So in other words O will wave a magic wand and bring back the more than 100K industry jobs that have been lost? The old WS is gone, kaput. Going forward, the deluxe toaster wins.”

    OK! but don’t you see that without obamas magic wand the real estate in nyc and environs would have crashed? Don’t you see that all of them would be unemployed? They are not unemployed and ask $1K/sf in NYC

  325. we says:

    News of real estate’s death is greatly exaggerated. Do you think the Fed is incapable of fighting deflation? Did you think 2 years ago the Fed was incapable of pumping Trillions of dollars into the system? The only question is, can the Fed decrease liquidity timely enough to prevent high-inflation.

  326. BC Bob says:

    [335],

    There is no govt in the history of mankind that has ever altered a business cycle. This won’t be the first. Yes, they can delay, artifically support for a short time, freeze, apply band aids, etc.. Alter the fundamentals? Sorry, will never happen. They can only make it worse. Stay tuned.

  327. BC Bob says:

    we,

    Pushing on a string. Got demand?

  328. veto says:

    Petraeus: US will increase presence near pirates

    WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. (AP) – The head of the U.S. Central Command says the American military will increase its presence near the Horn of Africa within 48 hours.
    Gen. David Petraeus spoke in West Palm Beach, Fla., on Thursday as a hostage standoff with pirates continues off Africa.

    He did not give specifics, but said more ships would be in the area because “we want to ensure that we have all the capability that might be needed over the course of the coming days.”

    Shore, i think you called this escalation. What do you see this leading into?

  329. 3b says:

    News of real estate’s death is greatly exaggerated

    News of real estate death is posted every day? Did you miss grim’s March sales numbers?

    Have you been following the dramatic rise in unemployment,a ndon and on we go.

    Yes the magical, the mythical O-man along with his super hero friends at the Fed and Treasury will single handly stop real estate prices form falling.

    Yes they will send checks for 50% down payments to all the people who may be sitting on the sidelines,and that will save real estate.

  330. Sean says:

    #337 We – Yes the Fed is incapable of fighting deflation.The Fed does not have a big enough balance sheet to prevent to re-inflate the worldwide credit bubble. Don’t talk my word for it however take the word of Katie Couric she reported it two weeks ago on Prime Time that there has been 50 Trillion in assets price deflation worldwide despite the Feds efforts.

  331. we says:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aZ1kcJ7y3LDM&refer=home

    2 years from now, we will be highly concerned about high-inflation and the Fed overshooting stimulus.

  332. poor guy says:

    that’s a great read

    Obama Stakes His Fortunes on Failed Banksters

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aNMQDysdnKRc

    Now that we have a rough idea how President Barack Obama and his lieutenants plan to prop up insolvent financial institutions using taxpayers’ money, we’re left with a more difficult question: Why? Obama could have taken the same approach with the banks the moment he took office, while he still had standing to blame the financial crisis on George W. Bush’s administration, stupid regulators, and corrupt lawmakers — that is, everyone but himself.

  333. #342 – we – Many of us were concerned about it now.

  334. veto says:

    BC Says: “There is no govt in the history of mankind that has ever altered a business cycle. This won’t be the first.”

    BC, I respectfully disagree, mostly because i’d like to hear further reasoning.
    Here is what i see: FR/gubmint has huge influence and basically create any outcome they want. If they want to slow the housing slide they can. If they want to create inflation, they can. If they want to change the rules and manipluate the outcome, they will, the same way they have done throughout history again and again. Pure capitalism has failed a thousand times but the gubmint stepped in and propped it back up at the cost of taxpayers. so whats different about this time? In three years we may be riding another decade long bubble totally oblivious to the fact that the whole system collapsed three years earlier.

  335. veto says:

    (contd)
    basically i find it hard to bet against the people who right the rules and have the power to cheat or start the whole game all over simply because they are losing….

    Although i admit we have huge problems. lol.

  336. The Island says:

    That same trend is happening nearly everywhere. At least your inventory is down. We can’t say that here…

  337. veto says:

    right = write

  338. #344 – ….are concerned about it…. Wrong stupid tense.

  339. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Shore has been beating the drum about the horn of Africa , & it is about to hit the fan. Hat tip shore.

  340. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Veto, tosh , the grammar police must have taken the day off , don’t sweat it.

  341. Mikeinwaiting says:

    SRS got killed today. Bought more. We shall see how that works out.

  342. grim says:

    No Tarp for Genworth…

  343. we says:

    344 – if you are concerned about high-inflation then the choice is only hard assets, not cash or cash-equivalents.

    I heard the Fed say time and time-again, they will do whatever is necessary to get economy back on track. Mid-term election less than 2 years away, expect good enonomic result within 12 months. Ignoring that is ignoring history, do at your own risk.

  344. HEHEHE says:

    “SRS got killed today. Bought more. We shall see how that works out.”

    FXP didn’t fare much better. I am still holding. Next week will tell a better picture of what’s in store.

  345. #354 – we – You are largely preaching to the choir.

  346. kettle1 says:

    Veto,

    dont forget the golden rule. he who has the gold makes the rules.

    The US can change the rules al they want, but that only plays as long as foreign investors buy us treasuries. Once investors begin to demand increased rates on us debt, then the government quickly loses the power to change the rules

  347. sas says:

    “Firm Acted as Tutor as It Sold Risky Deals to Towns”
    http://tinyurl.com/cekdm8

  348. about says:

    sorry for my highly irrational comment about 1999 prices. I actually thought i read it on this blog–but as i am learning you all are a great resource- thanks for the comments.
    ok- to then reword this- buying a house now would only make sense if we could lowball with a 2002 price?? is that right? other than that, we should wait.

  349. bp says:

    Grim,

    Can you tell me the status of 9 Hidden Lake Dr, North Brunswick? If it is sold, can you tell how much it sold for.

    Thanks

    BP

  350. BC Bob says:

    veto [345],

    They have already accomplished this, created another bubble that has led to another bust. That’s the function of the fed. How about we just eliminate the fed, let the Chicago pits set rates and anchor our currency with something tangible. The fed simply manufactured the largest credit/debt bubble in our history. They can now monkey around with liquidity facilities, debase currencies, accept trash for cash, extend lifelines, etc.. What they have zero control over is how to create demand, within an insolvent environment?

    As a result of the enablers/pushers current disposable income/debt is higher than the 1930’s. They are throwing every liquidity vehicle against the world, hoping something sticks. The problem, the s*it is sliding off the walls right into Fido’s bowl. How does one effectively artifically lever, while the world is deleveraging? They are focusing on the wrong battle. They are simply pissing on a raging fire.

    Consequences? Yes, I agree. They will create a another bubble. It’s in process, our debt markets.

    Hard to bet against the rule makers? Where have you been for the last few years? Fcuk the rule makers, Mr Market is the final arbiter.

  351. BC Bob says:

    Veto,

    Want to join the rule makers? Bid at our next 10 year treasury auction. Our creditors are stepping away. The rule makers would luv for you to help pick up the slack.

  352. grim says:

    Can you tell me the status of 9 Hidden Lake Dr, North Brunswick? If it is sold, can you tell how much it sold for.

    Expired on January 1st, not relisted.

  353. veto says:

    i thought its been established that china’s goals are aligned with our own…
    Treasuries will likely be fine. Maybe they do step away but there is a treasury bubble so its likely to deflate anyway but they will think up some other band aid to plug the hole. Maybe gve them statue of liberty and a few military bases in south pacific and call it even.
    Gvmnt is creative and powerful and have huge military and they yield alot of power with other nations through smoke and mirrors and side deals. So if we are thinking they are going to let the ship totally capsize by abiding by the existing system, we are probably kidding ourselves. I dont disagree about the mess and the debt troubles and consumers being tapped but I do disagree that it will all totally implode. gvmnt has alot of tricks up their sleeves and they write the history books and probably news too. We see rediculous accounting rules changes, having immigrants buy homes, lowering mortgage rates by printing money, etc. Its all short term gimmicks but its hard to bet against all that as they have committed to keep doing things like that in perpetuity and the world is in this together so its not zero sum game where others are willing to let us fail. Look at SRS, perfect example, the world is melting down in comm re and yet that stock is getting killed. Markets are simply being manipulated by govt.
    By the way, Im still a bear. Dow 4,500 very soon and 50% peak to trough NJ home price correction by 2015 but world gvmnts will fix this mess with desperate and disfunctional solutions and we will forget it happened 10 years out. I agree with the thesis that our living standard will be lowered as the debt bubble continues to implode and over the long term we will be forced to save more.
    I know what happens when people dont totally agree with the predetermined consenus here, so try not to skewer me too badly. just my opinion. My friends think im too negative. Jeez, i wish they met you guys. They would all committ hary kary immediately. ha.

  354. kettle1 says:

    veto,

    we arent that rough ;) just spirited!

    and look, i told you highlander was real

    Grandmother dies trying to stop sword fight
    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/30136788/

  355. kettle1 says:

    veto,

    we can agree to disagree. my main difference with your point is that as things get messy and unrest starts to really pop, the various governments are going to keep playing nice with each other.

  356. yome says:

    Veto :)

  357. sas says:

    “U.S.: Small Town, Big Debt – NYTimes.com/Video”
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CP9v3eroVco

  358. tdstyles says:

    Grim,

    Do you have anyway to graph actual sales prices by county? within county? The number of sales is interesting but unfortunately its not having a big impact on listing price. While sales prices may be down 16.8% from peak, asking prices are down far less. I know the general consensus on here is forget about asking prices and offer whatever you want but quite frankly I don’t have the time for that. We’ve been making what we feel to be reasonable offers(10-15% below ask) and nothing is getting accepted. I’m just a hard working family guy making about $100K a year trying to buy my first place. Spending every weekend house hunting is killing me. Anyone have any advice( besides moving to Atlanta)

  359. grim says:

    Do you have anyway to graph actual sales prices by county? within county?

    http://www.njar.com/research_statistics/pdf/quarterly_stats/2008Q4.pdf

    NJAR/NAR Q4 Median Sales Price by County (Table 10)

    Bergen – $453,900 (Down 8% YOY)
    Essex – $398,600 (Down 7.9% YOY)
    Hudson – $300,000 (Up 1.6% YOY)
    Hunterdon – $414,300 (N/A)
    Morris – $421,100 (Down 10.5% YOY)
    Passaic – $346,700 (Down 10% YOY)
    Sussex – $242,700 (Down 16.3% YOY)
    Somerset – $388,100 (Down 17.7% YOY)
    Warren – $271,000 (Down 1.5% YOY)
    Mercer – $247,800 (Down 19.2% YOY)
    Middlesex – $335,700 (Down 5.4% YOY)
    Monmouth – $348,600 (Down 9.1% YOY)
    Ocean – $263,600 (Down 9.2% YOY)

  360. sas says:

    tdstyles,

    “Spending every weekend house hunting is killing me. Anyone have any advice”

    yes, don’t pressure yourself and take a weekend or two off.

    whats the rush? you got one in the oven or something?

    SAS

  361. yome says:

    Thursday, April 9. 2009
    Posted by Karl Denninger in Banking System at 10:10
    (Page 1 of 295, totaling 883 entries) » next page
    Tired Of Getting ROBBED America?
    Look, I’m all for profit, ok?

    I’m a greedy capitalist pig and admit it. After all, I made my “nut” building a company, sold it, and now trade for a living.

    Is there anything more capitalist than doing those two things?

    No.

    But there is a difference between being a capitalist pig and being a robber baron, and this Wells Fargo announcement needs amplification, now that I’ve gotten the blast ticker out and have some time to write.

    Here’s the deal guys:

    Spreads have widened over the last year on broker (and direct bank) mortgage pricing .vs. Fannie and Freddie bond pricing.

    How much?

    About 200 basis points worth.

    Why is this important?

    Because you, the consumer, are getting cornholed in the “pricing” these guys are “offering” you!

    That is, the banks are exploiting the dislocation in pricing and the credit markets to screw you and post what Wells now says are record profits.

    Are you being told about this? Of course not.

    Are regulators stomping on this? Of course not.

    Are you being looted to pay for this? Of course you are.

    You are seeing near-zero (or actual zero) interest earned on money you loan to the bank (when you make a deposit or buy a CD you are loaning money to the bank) and yet when you go to borrow money you’re being screwed with record-high spreads that the bank is pocketing – in mortgage and credit card interest rates charged.

    How much does this add up to?

    About $4,000 in extra profits per mortgage on top of the “usual” $1,000 profit.

    That’s right – the banks are making five times the “usual and customary” profit per loan, and it is coming right out of your hide.

    I’ve been hollering about this for months (as has Mish Shedlock) but it appears that both our intrepid lawmakers and the mainstream media simply refuses to talk about it.

    When does this stop?

    When you, America, are tired of being ripped off and demand that it stop.

    Remember, the mantra of both government and The Banks is “never waste a crisis.”

    http://market-ticker.denninger.net/

  362. bi says:

    370#, you will still have hard time to get real picture of local housing market. from the table, it looks mercer county got hit hardest. but when you tell people in princeton or west windsor on this number, they will lol.

    >Mercer – $247,800 (Down 19.2% YOY)

  363. stan says:

    Sas- great advice. Stannetta and I just put a one month moratorium on house hunting…

  364. grim says:

    Do you have anyway to graph actual sales prices by county? within county?

    Not by county, but the S&P Case Shiller NY Metro Commutable Area covers most of Northern NJ that is commutable to NYC.

    http://njrereport.com/images/april09tracker.gif

    A better measure than anything I could slice or dice on a county level, especially with lower sample sizes and a complete inability to correct for shifts in mix, property types, improvements, etc.

  365. tdstyles says:

    sas, you guessed it. I have to get out of our tiny place in hoboken before the bun is cooked. We might just end up renting for another year, I checked out that townhouse rental community next to the Federal Reserve in East Rutherford, they have some crazy deals right now. It’s just really frustrating.

    Thank Grim. Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Passaic is where we’ve been. This is very helpful.

  366. sas says:

    “Remember, the mantra of both government and The Banks is “never waste a crisis.”

    yeah, and don’t forget.. 9/10 times that so called “crisis” is a planned event by design, so make you the sap either a) afraid b) capituate or c) forgetful

    i.e control over the suckers.

    SAS

  367. veto says:

    thanks for letting me split hairs. I was expecting highlander to show up and make my head roll off.

  368. Sean says:

    tdstyles – no rush till they are school age, rent a bigger place on a better street if you need to. Right now we are looking at another 30% down in NJ similar to California where even the Silicon valley is way way down.

  369. bp says:

    Grim,

    (#363)

    Thanks for the information. Grim, the house was on the market again after Jan 1st. We had put a bid on the house, however were told that they had a higher bid. We did not want to bid higher. A couple of weeks ago, they had a ‘under contract’ board. Do you think they were just fishing for offers?

    bp

  370. sas says:

    “sas, you guessed it. I have to get out of our tiny place in hoboken before the bun is cooked. We might just end up renting for another year”

    yee. your in a pickle. I know after 5 marriages, I’ve learned one thing:

    never mess with a pregnant women’s nesting feelings.
    thats dangerous… more dangerous than anything I can remember.

    but, try to not to make a rush decision and it come back to bite you in the rear.

    I know, back when you were a wee lad, or perhaps when your father use to look at the lingerie section in the Sears catalog…. I had my first child. A daughter.
    My wife & I lived in a shoe box apt, rented, didn’t have the foo foo baby stuff that they try to sell you on a “you need it/gotta have it” basis.

    well, I held tight, kept my cool, tried my best to make her happy, bite my lip & smiled.

    I’m glad I held tight, cause after doing my stint out in the Cam Lo, I did a little gig working the metals for the US govt….

    next thing I knew, gold bought the DOW.

    well, in any case, I’m going down memory lane.

    just my thoughts
    SAS

  371. sas says:

    “I know after 5 marriages”

    yes, I’ll be paying for it till I circle the drain. I’m well aware of that.

    SAS

  372. bi says:

    a bit old but it is local. please delete it if it has been posted before.

    N.J. banks may return federal aid as economic conditions change

    Several lenders, like Valley National Bank of Wayne, have not returned the money, but say they may do so in the next three months. Gerry Lipkin, Valley’s chairman and CEO, criticized the government for changing the conditions set on banks receiving TARP funds.

    “When you come out with a program on day one, you have to come out with rules and regulations and stick with them,” he said.

    http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2009/04/as_economic_conditions_change.html

  373. sas says:

    interesting, remind me what does “change” mean?

    “UPDATE 2-Obama seeks $83.4 billion more in 2009 war funds”
    http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN0927887920090410

  374. sas says:

    “Is America’s love affair with the “exburbs” over?”
    http://www.reuters.com/article/GCA-Housing/idUSTRE5386W220090409

  375. Sean says:

    Bye Bye American Pie.

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123929216724105401.html

    . With the massive widening in corporate bond spreads last fall, the economists’ model predicts industrial production will fall another 17% by the end of the year, and the economy will lose another 7.8 million jobs on top of the 5.1 million its shed since the recession began. Ouch!

  376. sas says:

    “Author who predicted crisis sees inflation ahead”
    http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE53790N20090408

  377. Sean says:

    Comedy in the Tragedy

    AIG HEAD LIDDY RUNS FROM PROCESS SERVERS

    AIG Shareholders Class Action Amended to Include Geithner, Paulson and Cox as Defendants
    April 9, 2009

    AIG SHAREHOLDERS CLASS ACTION AMENDED TO INCLUDE GEITHNER,
    PAULSON AND COX AS DEFENDANTS

    New Complaint Charges Cover-up by Government Officials

    AIG HEAD LIDDY RUNS FROM PROCESS SERVERS

    (Los Angeles, Ca., April 8, 2009). Freedom Watch, the government watchdog that protects individual liberties over government and corporate illegalities, today amended its $200 billion dollar class action derivative shareholders suit today against AIG and its directors to include two successive Secretaries of the Treasury, Henry Paulson and Timothy Geithner, as well as former SEC Chairman Christopher Cox, as defendants in the lawsuit. The suit is pending in Los Angeles federal court.

    The inspiration for this amendment was information disclosed by University of Missouri professor, William K. Black, on the Bill Moyers’ PBS television show last Friday, where he implicated these government officials in a massive cover up of the banking scandal, mostly for the benefit of Goldman Sachs, the former employer of both Paulson and Geithner, in which they held a significant financial interest. As for Cox, his reckless and intentionally impotent oversight at the SEC is the basis for the claim against him.

    The complaint charges these defendants with violating the constitutional rights of the shareholders by denying them the right to their property; the shares themselves. Under a Supreme Court case, United States v. Bivens, they can be sued in their individual capacities, even though the acts took place during their tenure as government officials.

    Finally, while the company AIG was served with the initial complaint, CEO and Director Edward Liddy has on three occasions “run” from process servers trying to serve him with the complaint, telling AIG security not to allow the process servers into his office suite. “This is an absolute disgrace,” stated Freedom Watch Chairman and General Counsel Larry Klayman. “It shows the complete lack of respect AIG and its directors have for the Rule of Law. Liddy can run but he cannot hide. It’s only a matter of time before he and his co-horts, along with Geithner, Paulson and Cox, will be held accountable by the American people, not compromised politicians in Washington, D.C., like Barney Frank Chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, who yesterday refused to answer a legitimate question from a Harvard student who inquired why he and his committee failed to oversee the banking scandal” Klayman added.

  378. BC Bob says:

    veto [364],

    China has been spreading out of long term sec and into t-bills. In conjunction with this, they have been huge sellers of mbs. How’s that for aligning their goals with ours?

    Your friends would not be freaked out, after all, I’m long the stock market, at least for the time being. Can’t wait till that 200 day mov avg starts to blink. Remember, the economy and stock market can disconnect for long periods of time. That said, I agree, ballpark, on that Dow #.

  379. spvod says:

    18 Winding hill drive, Mount Olive was recently sold…any idea how much?

  380. Stu says:

    SRS and further the commercial REITs are behaving like the bottom is in. I am not buying more as I bought my last piece at 39. This rally should soon run out of steam. I’m just not willing to bet any more as I’m looking at some pretty lousy losses being on the wrong side of the trade currently. Of course, I’m not selling down here either. Market is in speculation mode and reality will hit soon enough. Like I said before, I’m playing with the banks money, unfortunately, I gave up more than the lolly pop recently. Have a great Easter folks.

    In wine news, someone bought ‘Evil’ Australian Cab to the seder. I give it a solid 2.5 out of 5. I really think the Kiwis do much better with their whites than with their reds for whatever reason.

  381. afe says:

    Basking Ridge hits 2001 asking prices

    MLS:2514083
    LP: 999k
    SP 2001: 965k

  382. chicagofinance says:

    Stu says:
    April 9, 2009 at 10:12 pm
    SRS and further the commercial REITs are behaving like the bottom is in. I am not buying more as I bought my last piece at 39. This rally should soon run out of steam. I’m just not willing to bet any more as I’m looking at some pretty lousy losses being on the wrong side of the trade currently. Of course, I’m not selling down here either. Market is in speculation mode and reality will hit soon enough. Like I said before, I’m playing with the banks money, unfortunately, I gave up more than the lolly pop recently.

    Stu: French Connection UK…..you kept it level bets, yes?

  383. Shore Guy says:

    Stu,

    FYI, Kiwis come from NZ not Australia.

  384. chicagofinance says:

    BTW – Ollie is a French Connection UK shite arsehole…..

  385. chicagofinance says:

    Best use of the work “kiwi”

    Primus in the song…WYNONA’S BIG BROWN BEAVER

    But the beaver was quick
    And grabbed him by the kiwis.
    Now he ain’t pissed for a week.

  386. Shore Guy says:

    ” . I’m just a hard working family guy making about $100K a year trying to buy my first place. Spending every weekend house hunting is killing me. Anyone have any advice”

    An alternative — that may work, depending on your new-and-larger-place rent, which will allow you a place of your own and a place to get away from things on weekends and holidsys — is to look for a vacation getaway, in NE PA or the southern part of NY west of Tuxedo that costs $200k or less. It would keep the mortgage low and you would be building equity in something. It would also allow you to spread out a bit away from the new townhome while you wait to see how the shakeout in RE resolves itself around here.

  387. Sastry says:

    Shore #398…

    Your advice almost borders on “invest in RE now”. Is it a good time (could be, but I do not think so) to invest in real estate? I am differentiating between buying a primary residence versus buying secondary property.

    S

  388. Shore Guy says:

    Sastry,

    I think the question of whether it is a good time depends heavily on one’s individual circumstances and goals.

  389. cobbler says:

    [320] sastry

    Don’t buy any TH in Green Brook unless you get 50% off top or better. Even 400K is ridiculously high. TH bottom later than SFH, so if you want one you will have a plenty of time to shop around. Also, Green Brook in terms of value and school quality is a notch below other places you’ve mentioned you are looking in.

  390. sas says:

    where are the night owls?

    SAS

  391. Sastry says:

    Shore,

    For a middle class person (100k/yr family) with some savings, it would seem odd to invest in a unknown area, pay property taxes, mortgage, etc. Dare I say “speculation” [with a slightly longer time horizon, of may be a few years]. It may work, but my take after reading a lot of posts here is “do not ‘invest'” in RE…

    S

  392. DL says:

    Leaving for Berlin today. Back Tues. Happy Easter.

  393. Shore Guy says:

    Happy Easter

Comments are closed.