Weekend Open Discussion

Weekend Gossip!

CC’s new digs in Alpine, NJ.

NJMLS# 2908472
Original List Price: $15,000,000
Under Contract Date: 2/24/2009
Closed: 4/8/2009
Sale Price: $14,900,000
Transaction: CASH
Transaction brokered by: PROMINENT PROPERTIES SOTHEBY’S

From the NY Post Page 6:

CC SAFE AT HOME IN JERSEY

YANKEE pitcher CC Sabathia consoled himself after his first abysmal game by spending $15 million on a six-bedroom house in Alpine, NJ, reports The Post’s Jennifer Gould Keil. That’s spare change for the 250-pound, 6-foot-7 ace, who signed a $161 million contract with the team in the off-season. The 12,000-square-foot mansion on 2 acres was on the market for less than two weeks. Sabathia, 28, paid all cash for his dream house, where he’ll live with wife, Amber, and their three kids. The ‘hood boasts neighbors like Sean Combs, Mary J. Blige, Stevie Wonder, Chris Rock and Britney Spears.

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322 Responses to Weekend Open Discussion

  1. grim says:

    From the Press of Atlantic City:

    Latest layoffs bring total to 560 at Viking Yacht

    Viking Yacht Co. concluded its final round of layoffs and furloughs last week, bringing the total to 560 fewer employees since the cost-saving measure began in December, company officials said Thursday.

    Viking, a high-end boat builder in New Gretna, long has been one of the region’s largest private employers, with nearly 1,400 workers at the beginning of 2008. A year later, its payroll has shrunk to 800, said Andrew Davala, a vice president.

  2. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    J&J Cuts 900 Drug Jobs Amid Rising Competition

    Johnson & Johnson is cutting about 900 jobs in one of its pharmaceutical units, about 6 percent of its U.S. pharmaceutical positions, after its biggest-selling drugs lost sales to generic copies.

    The cuts, announced to employees this week, will mostly come among sales representatives in the Ortho-McNeil-Janssen Pharmaceuticals unit, said Kara Russell, a spokeswoman for the New Brunswick, New Jersey-based J&J, in a telephone interview today. Some workers will be laid off while other jobs will be eliminated through attrition and hiring freezes, she said.

    J&J joins New York-based Pfizer Inc., Merck & Co. of Whitehouse Station, New Jersey, and other drugmakers that have cut staff amid rising generic competition.

    (If I’m not mistaken, Ortho-McNeil Janssen has locations in Raritan and Titusville)

  3. grim says:

    From the NY Times:

    Renting or Buying, Hamptons Feel Pinch

    THE six-bedroom Hamptons home belonging to Joanne Corzine, the former wife of Gov. Jon Corzine of New Jersey, was listed for $900,000. That was not the sale price, of course, but rather the asking rent for the summer.

    Even in a recession, it seems, the Hamptons still manage to attract the kind of people who do not flinch at spending nearly $6,600 a night on rent. And multimillion-dollar homes continue to sell, especially in the more desirable areas south of Route 27.

    At the same time, however, a cloud of gloom has pervaded those thick Hamptons hedgerows. During the first quarter, the number of leases signed and the dollar volume of sales shrank to half of the levels from the similar period last year, said Rick Hoffman, the regional senior vice president for the Corcoran Group.

    “In the 20 years I’ve been doing this, this is the weakest rental market I’ve seen,” said Jan Robinson, the owner of Hampton Homes, a local brokerage. Ms. Robinson said her rental business was down by 70 percent from last year.

    The slowdown in the rental market is mirrored in the sales market, where prices have dropped to 2006 levels. Preliminary first-quarter data from Corcoran shows that median prices have declined by about 20 percent over the same period last year, Mr. Hoffman said. In 2008, the median price for homes on the South Fork (including the Hamptons and Shelter Island) was $891,000, according to Corcoran.

    In the first two months of this year, 60 sales were recorded in the Hamptons, compared with 107 in the first two months of last year and 330 in the similar period in 2007, said Susan Vincennie, general manager of Long Island Profiles, a company in Brightwaters, N.Y., that publishes recorded real estate information. The median price of homes sold in January and February of this year was $675,000, compared with $840,000 in January and February 2008, and $999,000 in the 2007 period, she said.

    Inventory has increased 6 percent since the first quarter of 2008, according to Mr. Hoffman.

  4. grim says:

    From the WSJ:

    Economists See a Rebound in September

    Economists in the latest Wall Street Journal forecasting survey expect the recession to end in September, though most say it won’t be until the second half of 2010 that the economy recovers enough to bring down unemployment.

    Gross domestic product was predicted to contract in the first and second quarters of this year by 5.0% and 1.8%, respectively, on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate. A return to growth — a modest 0.4% — isn’t expected until the third quarter. In the fourth quarter of 2008, the most recent period for which data are available, the economy contracted 6.3%.

    “The end of the decline isn’t the beginning of the recovery,” said David Resler of Nomura Securities Inc. “It’s like a boxing match. Even if you win the fight, it’s not going to feel as good when you get out of the ring as when you went in.”

  5. grim says:

    From the WSJ:

    More States Look to Raise Taxes

    A free fall in tax revenue is driving more state lawmakers to turn to broad-based tax increases in a bid to close widening budget gaps.

    At least 10 states are considering some kind of major increase in sales or income taxes: Arizona, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, Oregon, Washington and Wisconsin. California and New York lawmakers already have agreed on multibillion-dollar tax increases that went into effect earlier this year.

  6. grim says:

    From the Record:

    NJ casinos post biggest monthly revenue drop ever

    For the second straight month, Atlantic City casinos have set a record for the biggest monthly revenue drop in the 30-year history of legalized gambling here.

    March figures released Thursday by the state Casino Control Commission showed the gambling halls took in $318.4 million, a drop of 19.4 percent from a year ago.

    That eclipsed the previous record for the biggest monthly decline, which was set in February when revenues fell 19.2 percent.

    Three casinos here are in bankruptcy, a fourth is headed there within weeks, and still another is fighting off foreclosure because it can’t pay its bank loans.

  7. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    Hamptons, N.Y. Home Sales Plunge 67% in First Quarter

    Home sales in the Hamptons, the New York oceanside communities favored by financiers and celebrities, plunged 67 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier as Wall Street job cuts and investment losses stifled demand for second homes.

  8. grim says:

    (cont)

    In Southampton Village, home to the most expensive property sale in 2008 at $60 million, transactions declined 85 percent in the quarter to just three houses. The total value of all homes sold in the village was $2.8 million, a 98 percent decline from the year earlier, when $166.3 million in property changed hands.

    In East Hampton Village sales fell 81 percent, also to three houses. The total value of all homes sold there was $4.1 million, a 95 percent decline.

    “Those are your iron-clad, been-there-for-over-a-hundred- years, been-used-by-the-Kennedys areas,” said Desiderio. “It’s the blue-chip, best-of-the-best. I would never expect that.”

  9. freedy says:

    anybody think Mike Morgan has learned how to read a chart yet?

  10. grim says:

    Bi, thanks for the link, but the piece you posted gets a gold star for “most misleading headline”.

    N.J. banks may return federal aid as economic conditions change

    First, I think you might be misunderstanding what TARP was intended to do. TARP wasn’t intended to give banks cash to hold on to, or pay back immediately, but to lend out into the broader economy to spur growth (or arrest decline).

    These banks, giving back the TARP funds, is a net negative. It means this capital won’t be making it out into the economy. If the primary goal behind TARP was to lend funds, what good does paying the money back do?

    The piece does get the reason behind returning the funds right.

    Bank presidents say there’s a slew of reasons for returning the TARP money. Congress has changed rules, capping executive pay. The borrowed money, which has a relatively high interest rate, has become less necessary as accounting rules have changed. And the public has demonized banks that have received funds.

    “The badge of honor has become a scarlet letter,” said Mortimer J. O’Shea, president of Hilltop Community Bank in Summit.

    But I stand my ground on the headline, not only is it misleading, it is completely incorrect. I don’t care if a bank tells that story as it hands back the cash to Uncle Sam, that isn’t the reason they are doing it.

    TARP has been poisoned, nobody wants the onerous regulation and scrutiny that comes along with it.

  11. yikes says:

    CC Sabathia overpays (i would imagine) for a place in Alpine

    http://www.nypost.com/seven/04102009/gossip/pagesix/cc_safe_at_home_in_jersey_163748.htm

    “The 12,000-square-foot mansion on 2 acres was on the market for less than two weeks. Sabathia, 28, paid all cash for his dream house”

    $15 million, Grim, can you find it?

  12. grim says:

    Yeah I got it, I’ll post it up in a bit.

  13. Victorian says:

    This rally won’t end until one of us bears capitulate. Who is going to take one for the team? :)

  14. Stu says:

    ChiFi: from last night.

    “Stu: French Connection UK…..you kept it level bets, yes?”

    Absolutely, but I got a little lucky and traded around my position twice for 30% gains each time which has spared me some pain.

    Agreed, my position is beginning to look FCUKed, although I was this FCUKed for a short time last time around as well. We all must take our lumps some time. At least I’m smart enough to know not to double down on what appears to be a sinking ship.

    Situation looks about the same in my FXP as well.

    I told Gator yesterday that I was considering booking a loss. Her initial reaction was, “do not sell it.” Ugh.

    Thank the lord the markets are closed today. That rally yesterday looked like it had a lot more juice in it. In honor of the market being closed, I will call this ‘Good Friday’ for the shorts.

  15. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    What’s there to capitulate to? It’s a bear market rally. There was one in December and one in October. How’d those end.

    Did you know the current P/E ratio of the S&P 500 is 100?

    http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_FM71j6-VkNE/Sd4DgXaiW3I/AAAAAAAABw4/A0o5BkL8JC4/s1600-h/100x+PE.jpg

    Do you think that is sustainable?

  16. Victorian says:

    “I will call this ‘Good Friday’ for the shorts.”

    ROFL! Same situation here, Stu. We should have been warned when Citi was calling to sell banks on this rally. It definitely meant that they had something up their sleeves, and Wells Fargo proves it.

    BC Bob is the man! He warned us a month or so ago that he was hedging his bets, fortunately, I am in cash for the most part but have given up the paper gains for this year. I think I can afford to wait this out but it is hard to keep your emotions in check when your account is a sea of red.

    Also, Guys, I will be posting as “2 Cents” during work hours. It seems that the cache is shared across our office network and my credentials pop up on another computer as well. Grim – Is there any way to circumvent this?

  17. Stu says:

    Grim,

    I worked at Ortho in the Somerset area so they indeed have facilities in NJ. Plant was on 206 just West of 287 where the old circle used to be. By far, this place had the most over the top physical benefits that I have ever witnessed. In house day care, gym, basketball and tennis courts, bank branch in the cafeteria, cafeteria food priced subsidized by at least a 3:1 margin. And you could have eaten off the floor of the warehouse (where I worked). I think they made me wear a tie to drive a forklift there as well, or that could have been Squibb in Cranbury.

  18. Victorian says:

    HE (16) – Here are the bear market rallies during the Great Depression.

    November 1929 – April 1930: +48%
    June 1930 – September 1930: +12%
    December 1930 – February 1931:
    +21%
    May 1931 – June 1931:
    +27%
    October 1932 – November 1931:
    +35%
    July 1932 – September 1932: +72%

    I just hope that we are not in the 72% rally. This rally won’t end until everybody stops calling it a bear market rally. I was apprehensive when Bloomberg had MSM guys saying that this is a bear market rally. That should have been a sign. Well, another one goes in the experience locker.

  19. BC Bob says:

    “anybody think Mike Morgan has learned how to read a chart yet?”

    freedy,

    I have no idea, nor do I care. What does your chart tell you?

  20. BC Bob says:

    JB [3],

    Prices down 32.5%, from 2007, in the Hamptons? That’s called a start.

  21. qqq09 says:

    I’m looking at Plainsboro/south brunswick area. As others suggested, listing price has not change much as compare with 2006. However, most of the agent will drop the price quickly after a month or two, like 10k/20k. I guess depend on the traffic agent is seeing.

    My feeling is, it’s a fishing game. There is no way to get a reasonable price right after the initial listing, like 10% off. So wait a little for the price adjustment, then you can probably make a deal.

    Overall, the decent house will still cost 500k – 600k range, not much down from 2006.

  22. Shore Guy says:

    GM gets broken-up today? It would give them 3 full days to prepare for the new week.

  23. Victorian says:

    Fed Said to Order Banks to Stay Mum on ‘Stress Test’ Results

    The results were so good that they did not want to give the rest of the banks an inferiority complex.

  24. BC Bob says:

    “Fed Said to Order Banks to Stay Mum on ‘Stress Test’ Results”

    Vic,

    Change has come to DC? Go to hell taxpayers, shareholders and depositors.

  25. RentinginNJ says:

    This rally won’t end until….

    The rally will end when the lumpen investor who transferred all of their 401k money out of stocks and into the “stable” fund decide it’s safe to get into stocks again.

  26. veto says:

    Sorry for the off topic tangent but wife is going back to work as teacher in sept. Baby is 2 and we are interviewing preschools.
    Does anyone have any advice or suggestions on the different teaching philosophies? Im going to start researching today. Montessori seems interesting. Goddard school seems ok. Dont want to spend more than college tuition and dont want to pressure the little one towards ivy leagues or ceo postions. Just looking for well rounded education that gives social experience and head start on academics. thanks,

  27. Richie says:

    Sorry for the off topic tangent but wife is going back to work as teacher in sept. Baby is 2 and we are interviewing preschools.
    Does anyone have any advice or suggestions on the different teaching philosophies? Im going to start researching today. Montessori seems interesting. Goddard school seems ok. Dont want to spend more than college tuition and dont want to pressure the little one towards ivy leagues or ceo postions. Just looking for well rounded education that gives social experience and head start on academics. thanks

    The baby is young; don’t go crazy. They won’t be learning any complex math or writing novels at this age. It’s mainly about socialization. My wife did a sit-in at a couple of places with our son and so far we’re leaning towards a Catholic pre-school close to home.

    See where the baby seems to feel most comfortable.

  28. Alap says:

    How J. J. Elek sold 46 homes in February

    “In a normal market,” Elek said, “you look at comparable sales, figure out a price and add about 5 to 10 percent to test the market. But in this market, with prices going lower rather than higher, you do the opposite to stay competitive. So you look at comparable sales, then take off about 5 percent so that your listing looks more attractive than anybody else’s.”

    http://www.mycentraljersey.com/article/20090410/LIFE03/90410003/1001/RSS09

    Wow, a smart realtor? No way…

  29. Victorian says:

    BC (25) -
    “Change has come to DC? ”

    Indeed, Change has come to D.C. Obama does not sound stupid when giving away money to the banks. That makes it easier to fleece the taxpayers.

  30. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    Vic,

    I am fortunate so far in what I have invested is not money I need right now. Even if I lose my job I should have enough of a cushion to survive this rally and the next one.

    The amazing thing to me is the pop that came yesterday re the Wells earnings. They take a $26B gov’t loan, a return to fantasy accounting, and they get record earnings. Sure it was a great trade for a day but what now? What after this earnings season? Do people pile into a bunch of banks that are essentially a bunch of government sanctioned Enron’s? What do they do as unemployment continues at these levels and foreclosures escalate? The government can put in all the foreclosure holidays they want but at some point the piper has to be paid. They are setting up a bunch of mainstreet saps to become the next Prince Alaweed’s.

  31. Victorian says:

    “They are setting up a bunch of mainstreet saps to become the next Prince Alaweed’s.”

    Exactly!. The trick is not get wiped out during the vicious rallies. This will have unintended consequences. They might just spark off another commodity rally and then we truly are in a depression. The only saving grace till now has been the low energy costs. Watch out if gas goes above $3 again.

    BTW, Wells’ earnings were in part due to the ridiculously low borrowing costs. Borrow @ 0% and lend @ 5%, look like geniuses.

    Good luck, man. We are both going to need it :). I am hedging against my job too, Market up, I keep my job. If not, high chances of losing it.

  32. lisoosh says:

    vet- Richie hit it the nail on the head. At 2 they still don’t even engage their peers fully and you have a long time to go before first grade.
    A comfortable, friendly environment where you child feels safe and happy is the most important thing.

    Only tips I would give –
    1. Spend a good half day “sitting in” the class your child would be in, long enough so that they begin to forget that you are there and revert to their normal behavior. Schools are good at giving a dog and pony show and answering questions, you want to see how the caregivers REALLY are.

    2. Make sure you have a decent staff/child ratio.

    3. I’ve found that girls like a “schooly” environment more than boys, they bond with their peers more and like direction from teachers. Boys tend to be more rambunctious and have more issues at a young age in a classroom environment. If you little one is a boy I would recommend someplace which gives the kids plenty of outdoor time and exercise to burn off that energy. I’ve had several friends have issues with boys in a couple of schools where the teachers insisted that a 3 year old must be ADHD because he acted like….. a 3 year old boy.

  33. Shore Guy says:

    First Amendment? What is that?:

    http://www.app.com/article/20090410/NEWS01/904100351&referrer=FRONTPAGECAROUSEL

    And, after we get rid of those non-American flags, why not round up the “housing terrorists” who dare speak of price declines; after all, their views are outside the mainstream.

  34. JBJB says:

    Lifted from Save Jersey. A good summary of all the new taxes we have enjoyed since 2003. Quite an impressive list. An Corzine beleives NJ’s are still not taxes very much.

    FY 2009

    * Payroll Tax for Paid Family Leave (P.L. 2008, c. 17, formerly A-873 – Albano/ Oliver/Greenstein) – Beginning January 1, 2009, all employees began paying a portion of their income into an account to be used for family leave benefits. Beginning July 1, 2009 businesses will be forced to expend additional resources to hire new or temporary employees to replace those taking paid family leave.
    * Transitional Energy Facilities Assessment Reinstatement and Extension (P.L. 2004, c. 43, formerly A-3102 – Caraballo/Lesniak; P.L. 2006, c. 40, formerly A-4709 – Caraballo/B. Smith); and P.L. 2008, c. 32, formerly A-2807 – Quigley/Lesniak) – The Transitional Facilities Energy Assessment (TEFA) was scheduled to begin to phase-out as of January 1, 2009. This legislation freezes the assessment at the 2001 rate with the phase-out not occurring until at least Fiscal Year 2014.
    * Tax on Non-Residential and Residential Development (P.L. 2008, c. 46, formerly A-500 – Roberts/Watson Coleman/Green) – This law requires the imposition of a fee (tax) on non-residential development and allows municipalities to impose development fees on residential property. The tax to be imposed on all construction resulting in non-residential development, and for construction permits affecting non-residential property, is to be set at a rate equal to 2.5% of (1) the equalized assessed value of the land and improvements for all new non-residential construction on an unimproved lot or lots; or (2) the increase in equalized assessed value, of the additions to existing structures to be used for non-residential purposes. In addition, any municipality that has adopted a municipal development fee ordinance may, with the approval of the Council on Affordable Housing (COAH), impose and collect development fees from developers of residential property.

    FY 2008

    * Television and Electronics Tax (P.L. 2007, c. 347, formerly A-3527 – Gusciora/Barnes/McKeon) – This legislation provides for the collection and recycling of used televisions by imposing an annual $5,000 registration fee on television manufacturers, starting on January 1, 2009. The tax revenue will be deposited into a fund, administered by the DEP, and used to provide funding for a State used television recycling and management program, including the administrative expenses and to make payments to authorized recyclers.
    * Litter Tax (P.L. 2007, c. 311, formerly A-1886 – McKeon/Gusciora) – This legislation imposes a recycling tax on solid waste generation. The litter/recycling tax will be levied on (1) the owner or operator of every solid waste facility at the rate of $3 per ton on all solid waste accepted for disposal or transfer at the solid waste facility; and (2) on solid waste collectors at the rate of $3 per ton on all solid waste collected for transshipment or direct transportation to an out-of-state disposal site. The tax will be considered a “pass-through” cost to the solid waste facility owner or operator and solid waste collector, meaning the fees or surcharges ultimately will be paid by the solid waste generators utilizing the facilities or services.
    * Parking Tax (P.L. 2007, c. 296, formerly S-2891 – Rice/Caraballo) – This legislation authorizes the imposition of a special event parking tax surcharge to be assessed in addition to any other parking tax currently imposed. The special event parking tax surcharge is 7% of the fee for the parking, garaging, or storing of motor vehicles for special events held in the municipality during weekday evenings, beginning at 6:00 p.m. or later, and held at any time on Saturdays, Sundays, and holidays. This tax was authorized to provide revenue to the City of Newark to pay for costs associated with the operation of the new arena.
    * Admissions Tax (P.L. 2007, c. 302, formerly S-2971 – Rice/Caraballo) – This legislation allows a municipality to impose a 5% surcharge on admission charges at places of amusement at which admission charges are regularly paid and which contain fixed seats or bleacher capacity for not less than 10,000 patrons. The surcharge cannot be imposed on major places of amusement owned by the State or an independent State authority, motion picture theaters, or amusement parks. While other towns may fall under the provisions of this law, the tax was authorized to provide revenue to the City of Newark to pay for costs associated with the operation of the new arena.
    * Emissions Tax (P.L. 2007, c. 340, formerly A-4559 – Chivukula/McKeon/ Stender) – This legislation places a tax on those New Jersey businesses that emit carbon dioxide. This emission tax will raise millions of dollars to create funds in EDA, DEP and the BPU to fund “energy efficiency and conservation programs.” The legislation will require public electric and gas utilities to raise rates on electric and gas bills for residential, commercial, institutional, and industrial customers to cover the costs of implementing energy efficiency and conservation programs.
    * Explosive (Black Powder) Tax (P.L. 2007, c. 274, formerly S-2055 – Sweeney/Burzichelli) – Legislation increased the taxes paid by those who manufacture, sell, transport, sell, store, or use explosives. Included in bill’s provisions was the doubling of the tax on black powder (in amounts in excess of 5 pounds but not in excess of 100 pounds) which is used by private persons for the hand loading of small arms ammunition and which is not for resale.

    FY 2007

    * Sales Tax Rate Increase (P.L. 2006, c. 44, formerly A-4901 – Payne/Cruz-Perez/Kenny) – As part of his budget message, Governor Corzine proposed increasing the sales tax rate from 6% to 7% and expanding the sales tax to cover previously untaxed items. The Governor chose to raise this tax because it was the only one of the major taxes that had not been increased during the previous five years, and raising taxes is an easier alternative for Democrats than cutting spending. The sales tax is one of the most regressive taxes and its increase has caused Democrats to make up for it by proposing to provide tax relief to the poorest New Jerseyans (through an Earned Income Tax Credit increase).
    * Sales Tax Expansion (P.L. 2006, c. 44, formerly A-4901 – Payne/Cruz-Perez/Kenny) – In conjunction with the sales tax rate increase, the sales tax base was expanded to impose the 7% levy on previously untaxed goods and services. Those items newly taxed include digital property and pre-written software; shipping and handling; dry cleaning of non-clothing items; landscaping; self-storage rental units; tanning and tattoo services; massages; information services; limousine services; flooring and carpet installation; parking, storing and garaging a motor vehicle; non-subscription magazines and periodicals; investigative and security services; and membership fees. Membership fees include charges by health clubs, gyms, golf clubs, and YMCAs.
    * Health Care Tax (P.L. 2006, c. 43, formerly A-4716 – Pou/Watson Coleman/Kenny) – This legislation increased the tax on HMOs and their members by 100%; the tax of 1% on net written premiums was increased to 2%.
    * Tax on the Sale of Commercial Property (P.L. 2006, c. 33, formerly A-4701 – McKeon/Epps/Bryant) – This legislation imposes a tax on the sale of commercial property valued in excess of $1 million. The tax is set at 1% of the value of the property and is paid by the buyer.
    * Cigarette Tax (P.L. 2006, c. 37, formerly A-4705 – Gusciora/Epps/Lesniak) – This legislation increased the cigarette tax for the fourth time in five years. This increase raised the tax by 17.5¢ per pack, bringing the total state cigarette tax to $2.575 per pack. The legislation also changed the method of taxing moist snuff to a weight-based tax.
    * Tax on Motor Vehicle Purchases (P.L. 2006, c. 39, formerly A-4707 – Greenwald/ Lesniak) – This legislation imposes a tax on the purchase of any new passenger vehicle with a sales price of $45,000 or more, or that gets less than 19 miles per gallon. The tax is set at 0.4% of the sales or lease price. For a vehicle selling for $45,000, this means an additional tax of $180.
    * Car Rental Tax (P.L. 2006, c. 42, formerly A-4715 – Burzichelli/Epps/Bryant) – This legislation increased the tax on motor vehicle rentals from $2 to $5 per day.
    * Transitional Energy Facilities Assessment Reinstatement and Extension (P.L. 2004, c. 43, formerly A-3102 – Caraballo/Lesniak and P.L. 2006, c. 40, formerly A-4709 – Caraballo/Bob Smith) – The Transitional Facilities Energy Assessment (TEFA) was scheduled to begin to phase-out as of January 1, 2007. The phase-out was further delayed until December 31, 2010.
    * Fur Clothing Tax (P.L. 2006, c. 41, formerly A-4714 – Caraballo/Vitale) – This legislation imposes a 6% gross receipts tax on the retail sale of fur clothing.
    * Corporation Business Tax Surcharge (P.L. 2006, c. 38, formerly A-4706 – Roberts/Watson Coleman/Kenny) – This legislation imposes a new tax on business. In addition to corporation business tax liability, a business is now required to pay a surcharge equal to 4% of the amount of the corporation’s tax liability. The surcharge is to be assessed for each corporation tax year occurring during fiscal years 2007, 2008 and 2009.
    * Corporation Business Tax Minimum Payment (P.L. 2006, c. 38, formerly A-4706 – Roberts/Watson Coleman/Kenny) – This legislation increased the corporation business tax minimum payment for taxpayers with New Jersey gross receipts of $100,000 or more. The new minimum tax ranges from $500 to $2,000.
    * Nuclear Electric Generating Facilities (P.L. 2006, c. 35, formerly A-4703 – Quigley/Cohen/Bryant) – This legislation authorizes the State Treasurer to impose an annual tax/assessment (above and beyond the assessment made under P.L.1981, c.302) against the operator of each nuclear electric generating facility located in New Jersey. The total of the assessments must reflect the actual costs incurred by the State in providing supplemental security services at each nuclear facility.
    * Motor Vehicle Registration Fee Increase (P.L. 2005, c. 311), formerly A-4584 – Sires/Quigley/Greenwald/Kenny) – This bill imposes a $4 motor vehicle registration surcharge. Of this amount, $3 is intended to purchase and maintain the state’s helicopter fleet. The remaining $1 is statutorily directed to new state police classes. For FY 2007, all of the new surcharge revenue was redirected to balance the budget. In FY 2008, a portion of this revenue was again redirected. Instead of using the funds for their intended purpose, surcharge collections have been used to buy state police vehicles and pay for existing state police salaries.

    FY 2006

    * Eliminates Gross Income Tax Exclusion for Pension Income (P.L. 2005, c. 130, formerly A-4404 – Sires) – This legislation eliminates the ability of certain senior citizens to exclude their pension and retirement income from their gross income for the purpose of paying New Jersey state gross income taxes. Taxpayers with an income of $100,000 or more no longer will be able to exclude their pension and retirement income. Democrats call the individuals impacted by this legislation Ahigh income taxpayers.
    * Increases the Tax on Horizon Blue Cross Blue Shield of New Jersey and the Premiums of its Policy Holders (P.L. 2005, c. 128, formerly A-4401 – Roberts/Cohen/Buono) – This legislation establishes a new and higher tax to be paid solely by Horizon Blue Cross Blue Shield of New Jersey. Horizon is required to pay an insurance premium tax on all premiums (previously only “experience rated,” or group insurance premiums were subject to the insurance premium tax while individual and small group insurance premiums were not). In addition, the bill excludes Horizon from the maximum tax rule which caps taxable premiums at 12.5% of total premiums for any company whose taxable premiums in New Jersey exceed 12.5% of total worldwide taxable premiums. Some believe that Horizon was targeted for one of several reasons including: (1) the company’s decision to not go public; (2) the inability of the Legislature to grab a portion of the company’s surplus; (3) its position in labor negotiations with Cooper and Hackensack Hospitals; or (4) all of the above.
    * Health Care Tax (makes permanent) (P.L. 2005, c. 129, formerly A-4402 – Cryan/ Buono) – This bill converts the one-time, special interim assessment of one percent on net written premiums received by health maintenance organizations (HMOs), enacted as P.L.2004, c.49 (C.26:2J-45 et seq.), to an annual assessment to support charity care.
    * Tax on Builders (P.L. 2005, c. 131, formerly A-4405 – Cryan/Bryant) – Democrats in the Assembly wanted to take balances in the New Home Warranty Fund. However, the New Home Warranty Fund statute provides that balances in the Fund may only be used to provide buyers of new homes with insurance-backed warranty protection in the event that certain standards are not met. In the event funds are spent for other purposes, the obligation of builders to contribute to the fund is suspended until the funds are replenished. This legislation provides that builders will continue to contribute to the Fund (be taxed) even though balances are being used to pay for the Democrats’ spending.
    * Decouple the Corporation Business Tax and Gross Income Tax from the Federal Deduction of Qualified Production Activities Income (P.L. 2005, c. 127, formerly A-4294 – Cryan/Vas/Bryant) – This legislation increases taxes for certain New Jersey businesses by decoupling New Jersey’s Corporation Business Tax (CBT) and Gross Income Tax (GIT) from the federal manufacturer tax deduction.

    FY 2005

    * Income Tax Rate Increase (P.L. 2004, c. 40, formerly A-100 – Sires/Cryan/Green/ Kenny) – This legislation implements former Governor McGreevey’s proposal to increase gross income tax rates in order to provide higher property tax rebate checks for some New Jersey residents. It establishes a new marginal tax rate of 8.97% on the amount of taxable income in excess of $500,000. In order to generate enough revenue to cover the cost associated with the distribution of homestead rebates at increased levels, the change to the gross income tax rate schedule was made retroactive to January 1, 2004.
    * Telecommunications (Cell Phone/Land Line) Tax (P.L. 2004, c. 48, formerly A-3112 – Caraballo/Bryant) – This legislation imposes a per month, per phone number tax on telecommunications services. Specifically, a tax of $0.90 is to be assessed on each bill (1) charged by a mobile telecommunications company for each “voice-grade access” service number as part of mobile telecommunications service provided to a customer or for the customer’s home service provider and provided to a customer with a place of primary use in New Jersey, and (2) charged by a telecommunications exchange company for each telephone voice grade access service line provided as part of that telephone exchange service.
    * Cigarette Tax (P.L. 2004, c. 67, formerly A-3113 – Weinberg/Lesniak) – This legislation increased the cigarette tax for the third time in as many years. This increase raised the tax by $0.35 per pack, bringing the total state cigarette tax to $2.40 per pack. The increase in conjunction with the motor vehicle surcharge fee (see below) is being used to securitize approximately $1.9 billion of deficit bonds to balance the FY 2005 budget.
    * Motor Vehicle Registration Tax (P.L. 2004, c. 64, formerly A-3107 – Sires/Bryant) – This legislation quadruples the cost of a motor vehicle registration by requiring the purchaser of a new passenger automobile to pre-purchase a four-year registration. Full payment of this registration tax is required upon the initial registration.
    * New Tire Purchase Tax (P.L. 2004, c. 46, formerly A-3106 – Quigley/Kenny) – This legislation imposes a tax of $1.50 for each new motor vehicle tire sold at retail within the State. The tax is paid by the purchaser and is to be assessed on all new tire purchases, including the tires sold as a component part of a new motor vehicle or whenever new tires are installed on a used motor vehicle prior to that vehicle being offered for sale.
    * Realty Transfer Tax (P.L. 2004, c. 66, formerly A-3115 – Cryan/Kenny) – For the second time in as many years, the Democrats increased the tax on certain realty transfers. The change translates to a $70 million increase in home costs to be paid by the seller.
    * Tax on the Sales of Homes Valued in Excess of $1 million (P.L. 2004, c. 66, formerly A-3115 – Cryan/Kenny) – A new tax has been established on the purchase of residential property priced over $1 million. This change represents a $29 million increase in home costs to be paid by the purchaser.
    * Imposition of Unsafe Driving Surcharges (P.L. 2004, c. 69, formerly A-3114 – Barnes/Bryant) – This legislation creates a new surcharge of $250 for unsafe driving. This is in addition to other fines and surcharges previously established for unsafe driving. The Democrats used this increase in conjunction with the increase in the cigarette tax (see above) to securitize approximately $1.9 billion in deficit bonds to balance the FY 2005 budget.
    * Deductibility of Net Operating Losses (P.L. 2004, c. 47, formerly A-3110 – Watson Coleman/Johnson/Kenny) – This tax change takes away the ability of a business to fully deduct net operating losses. Specifically, the legislation limits to 50% the application of net operating loss (NOL) deductions under the corporation business tax for privilege periods beginning in calendar years 2004 and 2005. Full deductibility was to have begun for the 2004 tax year. Instead it expired as of December 31, 2007. (Net operating loss is a tax accounting concept; if a taxpayer has more business expense than business income in a tax year, the taxpayer has a net operating loss for that year.)
    * Disallowance of Depreciation Deduction (P.L. 2004, c. 65, formerly A-3111 – Sires/Cohen/Bryant) – This tax change takes away from New Jersey businesses certain of the tax relief benefits included in the federal Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003 (JGTRRA). The specific measure being altered deals with the ability of a business to deduct from their taxes an amount for the depreciation of equipment and machinery.
    * Transitional Energy Facilities Assessment Reinstatement and Extension (P.L. 2004, c. 43, formerly A-3102 – Caraballo/Lesniak and P.L. 2006, c. 40, formerly A-4709 – Caraballo/Bob Smith) – The Transitional Facilities Energy Assessment (TEFA) was scheduled to begin to phase-out as of January 1, 2005. The 2004 legislation froze the assessment at the 2001 rate and pushed back the phase-out date. In 2006, the phase-out was further delayed and now the tax will not sunset until at least December 31, 2010.
    * Hazardous Discharge Site Cleanup Fund/New Jersey Spill Compensation Fund Tax (P.L. 2004, c. 50, formerly A-3117 – McKeon/Bob Smith) – This legislation increases the tax imposed for the transfers of hazardous substances. Specifically the tax increases from $0.015 to $0.023 per barrel for petroleum or petroleum products, precious metals, elemental phosphorus, or in certain circumstances, antimony or antimony trioxide sold for use in the manufacture or for the purpose of fire retardants. For other hazardous substances, the legislation increases the tax rate to the greater of $0.023 per barrel or 1.53% of the fair market value of the product.
    * Billboard Tax (P.L. 2004, c. 42, formerly A-3101 – Mayer/R. Smith/ Madden/Sweeney) – This legislation extends the sales tax on billboard advertising space. In 2003, the Legislature imposed a fee of 6% on the gross amounts collected by a retail seller for billboard advertising. Beginning on July 1, 2006 through June 30, 2007, the tax is reduced to 4%, and on July 1, 2007 the tax is to be discontinued.
    * Air Emissions Tax (P.L. 2004, c. 51, formerly A-3118 – Greenwald/Bob Smith) – This legislation creates a new tax to be assessed on the owner or operator of any facility that emits certain air toxics. The surcharge is based on the annual emissions of each Category 2, Category 3 and Category 4 toxic substance as reported in the release and pollution prevention report for that facility.
    * Tax on Medical Care (Ambulatory Care) (P.L. 2004, c.54, formerly A-3127 – Diegnan/Bryant) – This legislation establishes an annual assessment on the gross receipts of certain licensed ambulatory care facilities. Specifically, a facility with $300,000 or more in gross receipts will be taxed at a rate of 3.5% of gross receipts or $200,000, whichever is less. A facility with annual gross receipts less than $300,000 will not have to pay an assessment. For FY 2006, the rate was recalculated to include calendar year 2004 data. Beginning in 2007, a facility’s uniform gross receipts assessment will be based on the facility’s ost recent annual report to the DHSS. No facility will be required to pay more than $200,000.
    * Health Care Tax/HMO Assessment (P.L. 2004, c. 49, formerly A-3116 – Wisniewski/Buono) – This legislation establishes a special interim assessment on health maintenance organizations (HMOs). This assessment translates to $7 per client and a $56 million tax on the health care industry.
    * Sales Tax on Cosmetic Procedures (P.L. 2004, c. 53, formerly A-3125 – Cryan/Bryant) – This legislation imposes a 6% gross receipts tax on certain cosmetic medical procedures. “Cosmetic medical procedures” are defined as any medical procedure performed on an individual which is directed at improving the individual’s appearance, and which does not meaningfully promote the proper function of the body or prevent or treat illness or disease. The legislation defines cosmetic medical procedure as cosmetic surgery, hair transplants, cosmetic injections, cosmetic soft tissue fillers, dermabrasion and chemical peel, laser hair removal, laser skin resurfacing, laser treatment of leg veins, sclerotherapy, and cosmetic dentistry.

    FY 2004

    * Hotel/Motel/Bed and Breakfast Occupancy Tax (P.L. 2003, c. 114, formerly A-3710 – Roberts/Impreveduto/Bryant) – This legislation imposes a new fee on hotel and motel occupancies. The fee is to be paid by the guests of the hotel or motel. From August 1, 2003 through June 30, 2004, the new tax was set at 7%, with the total amount going to the General Fund. During this period a local option tax of 1% could be imposed on transient rentals. Beginning on July 1, 2004, the statewide tax dropped to 5% and the local option tax may increase to 3%. This tax was intended to raise $140 million for the State during FY 2004, with a portion of the tax revenue used to restore cuts made to the programs that fund arts, history and cultural grants. The amount of revenue generated by the tax increase now depends on the number of municipalities which opt to impose the local option tax. Revenue available to the state will decline.
    * Cigarette Tax (P.L. 2003, c. 115, formerly A-3711 – Diegnan/Lesniak) – The tax on a pack of cigarettes was increased by $0.55 per pack. This is on top of the $0.70 tax increase imposed during FY 2003. This brought the total state tax on a pack of cigarettes to $2.05 per pack.
    * Casino Taxes (P.L. 2003, c. 116, formerly A-3713 – Greenwald) – This legislation raises revenue from new and expanded taxes on casinos. Specifically, the legislation imposes a 7.5% tax on the annual adjusted net income of a licensed casino; a 4.25% tax on the value of complimentary rooms, food, beverages or entertainment provided by a casino; a tax of 8% on casino service industry multi-casino progressive slot machine revenue; and a $3 per day charge on each hotel room in a casino hotel facility as well as a $1 increase, from $2 to $3, in the casino hotel parking fee. The deduction that a casino licensee was previously permitted to take for uncollectible gaming debt, when calculating gross revenue, is eliminated. $90 million in additional revenue generated from these tax changes was directed to the Casino Revenue Fund.
    * Realty Transfer Tax (P.L. 2003, c. 113, formerly A-3709 – Cryan/Kenny) – This legislation increases the realty transfer fee for each conveyance or transfer of property. The seller is required to pay a supplemental fee based on the sale price of the property. The legislation is intended to generate $62 million in additional revenue for the State and approximately $22 million in additional revenue for the counties.
    * Billboard Tax (P.L. 2003, c. 124, formerly A-3714 – Gusciora/Bryant/Sweeney) – In addition to Gov. McGreevey’s tax increase proposals, the Democrat-controlled Legislature thought it would be appropriate to impose a sales tax on billboard advertising. This legislation imposes a tax of 6% on the gross amounts collected by a retail seller of billboard advertising.
    * Fees (P.L. 2003, c. 117, formerly A-3719 – Caraballo/Codey) – A total of $35 million in new revenue is being generated through instituting or raising various fees, including a fee for licenses issued by the Real Estate Commission ($4.5 million), construction code fees under the Uniform Construction Code ($2.7 million), costs imposed on employers under the Right to Know Act ($2.1 million), license and permit fees imposed under the Alcoholic Beverage Control Act ($2.0 million), unemployment insurance fines ($2.5 million) and fees imposed for non-criminal background checks ($1.7 million). New fees also have been imposed on limousine owners, and the fee for filing for a divorce has been increased.
    * Nursing Home Assessment (P.L. 2003, c. 105, formerly A-3686 – Watson Coleman/Conaway/Kenny and P.L. 2004, c. 41, formerly A-3051 – Conaway/Watson Coleman/Kenny) – An assessment on nursing home facilities based on the number of non-Medicare patient days also was levied in FY 2004. The assessment was deemed a health care-related tax which makes the amount collected eligible to be matched by federal Medicaid reimbursement. The FY 2004 budget skimmed $51.5 million from the additional Medicaid reimbursements. Subsequent budgets also have skimmed a portion of this revenue.

    FY 2003

    * Estate Tax – P.L. 2002, c. 31 (formerly A-2302 – Watson Coleman/Gusciora/Turner) – established a new tax on estates by providing that New Jersey estate taxes are to be computed as though the terms of the federal estate tax that applied on December 31, 2001, including those provisions governing liability for the tax and allowance of a state legacy tax credit, continue to apply. P.L. 2002, c. 31 also repealed R.S. 54:38-8 which would have voided the New Jersey estate tax in the event of the repeal of the federal estate tax or the federal credit for state legacy taxes.
    * Corporation Business Tax – P.L. 2002, c. 40 (formerly A-2501 – Sires/Roberts/Kenny) – restructured the Corporation Business Tax by making fundamental changes in the way New Jersey taxes business. This legislation is the result of Governor McGreevey’ mandate to raise an additional $1 billion from the business community.
    * Cigarette Tax – P.L. 2002, c. 33 (formerly A-2504 – Weinberg) increased the tax on the sale of cigarettes by $0.70 per pack (from $0.80 to $1.50 per pack) with the anticipation of an additional $240 million of revenue for the state. The increased revenue is statutorily dedicated for health programs ($200 million) and to fund anti-smoking initiatives ($30 million in FY 2003 and FY 2004, $40 million in FY 2005, and $45 million in FY 2006). However, the language dedicating $30-$40 million for tobacco cessation programs has been superseded by language included in the FY 2004 and FY 2005 budgets. Only $10 million was provided in FY 2004 and $11
    * Fee Increases – P.L. 2002, c. 34 (formerly A-2506 – Cohen/Codey) – $129 million in additional state revenue was anticipated to be generated through this Omnibus Fee bill. The legislation established, increased and modified fees and penalties. It increased fees and penalties in the following areas: agriculture, motor vehicles, bulk purchase of drivers’ bstracts by insurance and credit companies, commercial truck/tractor registration fees, open competitive and promotional examinations, corporate filings, health maintenance organizations, the Department of Environmental Protection, notaries public and the Judiciary. The fee bill also increased municipal revenue by $1.15 million (50% of the estimated revenue from the additional $100 surcharge on persons convicted of operating a motor vehicle while under the influence of drugs or alcohol).

  35. Shore Guy says:

    Why does it have to be a NJ college dorm where a kid with an Italian last name ends up getting killed in a trash compacter and his body turns up in a landfill? We need this like a hole inthe head.

    http://www.app.com/article/20090410/NEWS/90410015/0/BUSINESS

  36. Shore Guy says:

    compactor. oops

  37. JBJB says:

    Oh

    “The list has not been updated to include a recent $500 million toll increase on the Turnpike and Parkway imposed by the Governor, an approximate $400 million employer tax to support unemployment benefits, and taxes and fees the Governor has proposed on income, liquor, wine, and motor vehicle transactions.”

  38. chicagofinance says:

    veto says:
    April 10, 2009 at 8:36 am
    Goddard school seems ok.

    veets: my experience with Goddard was a lot of exposed a%% cracks and tatoos with the care-givers for the toddlers. The infants get the white glove treatment, but those walking and not yet toilet trained are in a living hell…

  39. #34 – IDK Shore, I read the article and it’s kind of a non-issue.
    What did catch my attention was this;
    not just the multicolored “gay’ striped flags, but also banners indicating fetishes and or other “lifestyle’ choices.
    Have I been missing something here? What are said fetish flags?

    Also, that area (Neptune, Asbury, Ocean) seems to have a largish gay population. Would any proposal like that have a chance?

  40. yikes says:

    Grim – just checked zillow for a $15 million house and nothing.

    maybe it just takes some time to show up?

  41. BC Bob says:

    “Grim – just checked zillow for a $15 million house and nothing.”

    Yikes,

    Does CC have a McDonald’s wing on the house?

  42. grim says:

    Zillow gets sales info from tax records, not the MLS systems. In some cases, it takes months for those sales to make it to the online systems.

  43. BC Bob says:

    “CC’s new digs in Alpine, NJ.”

    What recession?

  44. BC Bob says:

    JB,

    Does Mickey D’s put you in moderation?

  45. yikes says:

    great work, grim.

  46. stan says:

    CC didn’t get much of a lowball.

    I can see it now….. Alpine is different, its so close to Yankee stadium ya know. New pitchers are coming up from tidewater and their stimulating demand

  47. grim says:

    The ‘hood boasts neighbors like Sean Combs, Mary J. Blige, Stevie Wonder, Chris Rock and Britney Spears.

    Britney is a renter. Eww…

  48. Stu says:

    On the daycare/school tip.

    Other thing to look out for besides the aforementioned excellent advice is their philosophy on creativity. Many of the Montclair area daycare centers are more child-directed rather than teacher-directed, as some believe that discipline negatively impacts creativity. The place little Gator attends is very teacher-directed and you find out at pickup when your child is being ‘too creative’. There is uone child we know whose parents routinely get called into meetings with the director, but the parents are way overprotective and spoil their son to the hilt. We never suffered the terrible twos or the threes and attribute it mostly to making sure that Lil Gator, an only child, doesn’t think the world revolves around only him nor does his school.

    And remember, regardless of what school your 2-year old attends, it is the example and value-system you establish at home that will have a much greater impact on his behavior and potential to be a future leader of industry. ;)

  49. Stu says:

    BC, Mickey D’s does trigger moderation. Have no friggin’ clue why, but I was refer to the Golden Arches as Mickey D’s to avoid the mod monster.

  50. grim says:

    I’ll give you some hints… It isn’t the “Mc” that does it, but it does have something to do with the McCliffside Park incidents.

  51. grim says:

    I wonder if that guy ever sold his house. He sure showed us…

  52. BC Bob says:

    “Britney is a renter.”

    Another wannabe.

  53. Shore Guy says:

    “377.tdstyles says:
    April 9, 2009 at 8:49 pm
    sas, you guessed it. I have to get out of our tiny place in hoboken before the bun is cooked. We might just end up renting for another year, I checked out that townhouse rental community next to the Federal Reserve in East Rutherford, they have some crazy deals right now. It’s just really frustrating.”

    TD,

    Not to pry but, after taxes and current rent, car payments, etc, what do you have left over each month? What kind of downpayment do you currently have?

    Back in the day, and I think likely more so in the future, folks had a small place, often a rental “in town,” as it were, close to their business interests and they owned a place “in the country.” Inasmuch as homes in NJ are still very expensive relative to median incomes, and likely to decrease in price as time goes on, one may be better off renting until things settle out. If you consider some homes like these in southern NY http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/beds-3/baths-2/price-na-180000/type-single-family-home?cmid=1024786%2c1078913%2c1024788%2c1078914%2c1024790%2c1078915%2c1098714%2c1098715%2c1088139%2c1024793%2c1098716%2c1078917%2c1078918%2c1078919%2c1098717%2c1024798%2c1024799%2c1024800%2c1024801%2c1098718%2c1024803%2c1078922%2c1088140%2c1100458%2c1024806%2c1098719%2c1088141%2c1078923%2c1024808%2c1100459%2c1024810%2c1100461%2c1100462%2c1098720%2c1024811%2c1100463%2c1024813%2c1024814%2c1078925%2c1098721%2c1078928%2c1100464%2c1078929%2c1078930%2c1100465%2c1024822%2c1024823%2c1098724%2c1024824%2c1100466%2c1024825%2c1088143%2c1024827%2c1078931%2c1024829%2c1024830%2c1024831&sqft=6&ofbm=8

    You can have something like this: 4 Bed, 4 Bath, 2,200 Sq Ft on 2.15 Acres (Asking $167,000).

    Assuming a sales price of $150,000 and 20% down leaves one with a mortgage of 120,000. A 20 year, 5% loan results in payments of about a month; 30-year loan is about $1,150. Of course there is tax, insurance, yadda, yadda, to consider but all of these are far-less expensive on “weekend places” like these. The upside id that you would have far more space for recreation purposes, less need to go further out to find a place you can afford and then have the commute from hell. Expand the search north or west and the number and quality of homes for the money improves even more.

    Although it may strike some as folly to live in a rental while owning a place one only uses from time to time, it really can provide far better bang for the buck. I believe that Grim may even be living in a rental while owning another property.

  54. grim says:

    CC didn’t get much of a lowball.

    The timing on the NJMLS is odd. I have a feeling this was a Sotheby’s exclusive prior to being listed on NJMLS.

    No idea if the asking of $15m was really the original asking or not.

  55. Shore Guy says:

    “And remember, regardless of what school your 2-year old attends, it is the example and value-system you establish at home that will have a much greater impact on his behavior and potential to be a future leader of industry.”

    Well, that and whether one lives on the right block, of the right street, in the right town, and has the right car parked in front, and drives it wearing the right shirt, shoes, etc.

  56. grim says:

    Shore,

    Those listings you posted from Nags Head sure are tempting…

    Semi-beachfront in the $300s?

  57. BC Bob says:

    “Those listings you posted from Nags Head sure are tempting…”

    JB,

    You don’t want Nags Head, move a little north to Duck.

  58. Sean says:

    Wonder if CC was able to sell his old digs.

    He apparently had a big spread in Westlake Ohio and this one in Fairfield Cali.

    http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2007/07/04/HOGA7Q75RG43.DTL

  59. BC Bob says:

    Where are the Nags Head listings?

  60. ruggles says:

    High prices in Alpine are a direct result of proximity and access to Lil Kim.

  61. House Hunter says:

    just an observation, I think the spring asking prices are more deluded than ever..the records in my area, that I can attain, show all homes selling at least 18% off assessed (on average some are more) this is a joke

  62. Shore Guy says:

    Grim,

    Yes but my concern is erosion. We are going to do serious looking in the autumn. Right now, we are inclined to get something soundfront. It is a nice little walk to the beach, there is less damage from blowing sand (if anyone has lived at the beach during the oct-may period you will understand), and one can find a lot that is at a higher elevation, which does not hurt come hurricane season (sorry to use that word, Gator). Ideally, we want something where the land under the house is at about 30 feet, and the home is on pilings. Even in a Cat5, it should provide a fair degree of protection.

  63. Shore Guy says:

    “You don’t want Nags Head, move a little north to Duck.”

    We had a similar reaction. Also liked Bogue Banks down south more.

    BC, have you spent a bit of time in the OBX? If so, I welcome all thoughts, especially negative ones.

  64. Shore Guy says:

    ” I think the spring asking prices are more deluded than ever”

    Indeed. Things kind of remind me of the former celebrity or former great beauty whom time has forgotten and who still see themselves as what they were and fail to believe the current reality.

  65. Happy Daze says:

    someone tell CC he got ripped

  66. Sean says:

    We are what only what six weeks away from Memorial Day weekend and a quick web search there are several hundred high end prime summer rentals available in the Hampton and the Jersey Shore.

    It is going to be a bust for the high end beach house summer rentals.

  67. Sastry says:

    I remember someone asking for a suggestion for college (with a hint of sneering at ivy league).

    May I recommend ASU? Party university, where the admission is easy, but … getting a degree is tough!

    I heard that someone that was the President of Harvard Law Review and is the President of US did not qualify to get an “honorary” degree from there. It must be really tough!

    Just one problem though: those that get a degree from there will find it worthless anyway. May be the contacts they develop with oil fat cats help them get some jobs.

    S

  68. BC Bob says:

    Shore,

    I have ony vacationed there, 5-6 times. Nags Head, ocean side/don’t know soundfront. Nags Head is more Seaside Hgts while Duck is Spring Lake/Sea Girt.

    One of my favs;

    http://www.twiddy.com/homes/duck/four-seasons/starry-starry-night.aspx

  69. crossroads says:

    65
    there are still sales happening. and not all at rock bottom prices. it makes me think those buyers think they’re getting a great deal! most likely being mislead price drops off original asking price which were over the top to begin with.

  70. hughesrep says:

    Here is CC’s old house in Westlake, OH.

    http://virtualglobetrotting.com/map/36494/

    I’m guessing 500Kish, taxes maybe 5K.

    Westlake is one of the nicer western suburbs of Cleveland. Lots of McMansions is Westlake, also lots of athletes homes.

    Personally I prefer the older homes along the lake in Bay Village.

  71. Shore Guy says:

    As I said a few weeks back and again recently: Beware of the Horn of Africa. I have been in contact with folks I have associations with on the Horn and the area is a danger to a much-wider region, including CONUS. Eritria, Puntland, and some other places in the region are places that American’s have never heard of but that are likely to have a big impact on world events, aside from piracy.

    With respect to piracy, the solution lies as much on the ground, more so really, than on the sea and that will require boots onthe ground — either Ethiopia’s or ours, I suspect. The only forces we have on the ground that are capable of such a response are in Djibouti and they have already had a target on them, it has not been made public, so you have heard it here first.

    UBL and others have interests in the area and that always adds complexities. The fact that Eritria is so willing to provide vast quantities of arms to the various malefactors in the area does not help.

  72. BC Bob says:

    “someone tell CC he got ripped”

    Pass along the same message to Hal/Hank.

  73. Shore Guy says:

    For folks without kids, this is an ideal period and a nice price for Starry Night: 9/12/2009 9/19/2009 $2,950

  74. BC Bob says:

    Shore,

    Don’t advertise it. I may be targeting that week.

  75. Nicholas says:

    Heard a piece on NPR that said shipping companies are now considering going around the Horn of Africa instead of through the Suez Canal. Cost is cheaper and since demand is low there is no rush to get the items to market.

  76. Nicholas says:

    I ran the numbers for March for 20715 and it looks like the recession has ended.

    Sales are up +100% and prices have started to rise again. The number of months of inventory has been cut nearly in half.

    Oh wait, thats just the spring bounce, nevermind, go back to sleep. I will let you know if things start really improving, +100% of nothing is nothing.

  77. BC Bob says:

    Shore,

    Happy hour on the sound, dinner at Awful’s.

    JB,

    How about a GTC in OBX?

    http://www.awfularthursobx.com/

  78. Sastry says:

    Nicholas #76

    … and they hope that the tankers get seized by pirates, so they can probably collect more from insurance :)

  79. Shore Guy says:

    BC,

    Based on what I specified above, do you have any suggestions? Also, in an ideal world, we would want to be within walking or bicycle riding distance of a grocery, physcian, pharmacy, barber and other things like that — think downtown Spring Lake, Bradley Beach, Belmar, Main Avenue in OG, and such.

  80. Shore Guy says:

    Nicholas,

    Between the tolls at Suez and the piracy issue, the extra fuel used to go around Africa probably starts to make sense around now.

  81. BC Bob says:

    Shore,

    The only problem with Duck; it’s the narrowest part of the island. If there was a major hurricane, I would imagine that the ocean would meet the sound. I was down there after a stong tropical storm. They were plowing route 12, buried in 3 feet of sand. If you have to evacuate you better move out 2 days early. It would be a nightmare getting off the island with heavy volume.

    You would be within walking distance of small grocery stores and a short ride, maybe 3-4 miles to a Food Lion, right over the causeway. Pharmacy, Dr’s, etc., don’t know. Mixologists, yes a short walk.

    http://maps.google.com/maps?hl=en&q=map,+duck,+nc&um=1&ie=UTF-8&split=0&gl=us&ei=SGLfSab5N-nplQfZ9vDfDg&sa=X&oi=geocode_result&ct=image&resnum=1

  82. BC Bob says:

    Shore,

    Corolla is another nice area, north of Duck, wider span of the island.

    You should go down there for 2 weeks. Rent 1 week in Duck and 1 week in Corolla.

  83. Sean says:

    re# 63 – Shore

    I don’t think anything in the outer banks is higher than Kill Devil Hills where the Wright Brothers monument is, and that was something like 15 ft above sea level.

    I don’t think you will find anything in the 30 ft range.

  84. Nicholas says:

    I stayed on Duck this winter over New Years. The place was absolutely covered in “For Sale” signs. An estimate for the area of Duck we were staying at was that around 25-33% of the homes had for sale signs.

    I don’t know if I mentioned this but we saw some coupled crying (wife openly weeping) in the Twiddy office. “We haven’t had a renter in 6 months..” to which the lady in the office replied, “I might be able to get you something in April”.

  85. Nicholas says:

    Just for reference the properties that I’m talking about had 2.5 to 3 million dollar price tags.

  86. BC Bob says:

    Nicholas [87],

    Yep. There were a ton of for sale signs. Many were also in the 500-700K range. Most are 2nd homes, hel’s, hoping to rent until they retire. It works until it doesn’t.

  87. House Hunter says:

    ….follow up to #62 deluded home prices…the “off the assessed price” is the actual sales in 08-09…they are “asking” way over assessed. How can you ask so much aboved assessed when no one is really getting that price? I think assessments are useless any way…but just looked at them as a gauge

  88. comrade nom deplume says:

    [68] sastry

    Hard to follow where you were going on ASU. Methinks its sarcasm, but not sure.

    FWIW, I have a cousin that went to ASU (on a full scholarship) for grad school and he is doing quite well for himself. He and his siblings are all scary smart, so that doesn’t surprise me. He turned down Duke-Fuqua’s scholarship offer to go to ASU.

    But your observation about state univ.’s like ASU is dead on. Cousin’s older sister went to UMass and flunked out in her freshman year. She did go back, finished, and is doing well for herself.

    My own experience bears that out. I also graduated from UMass and, in the words of a U.S. Tax Court judge, “did not distinguish myself there.” The courses were tough, the profs demanding, and I found the courses at Mt. Holyoke and Harvard much easier. In fact, my experience at UMass scared me away from applying directly to law schools—I did not think I could cut it in law school if I could barely cut it at UMass.

    When I did go to law school (still thinking that I probably couldn’t hack it), I placed consistently near the top of my class, wrote on to honor boards and journals, and have since come to realize that my state univ. education was first rate, even if I didn’t think so at the time.

    So I don’t doubt for a second that you can get a quality education from ASU, and a lot of other state universities, provided you can lay off the party scene and bear down.

  89. Laurie says:

    re:76 Nicholas…yes, I heard that NPR podcast too and then was very interested to see the piracy the next day. NPR’s Planet Money is so interesting…today I learned from them that ins co’s that provide life ins want TARP $ too.I was wondering how their “conservative” investing was going and now I see…and last week one of the movers and shakers at our school dropped 10 grand at the annual auction…he sells lifeinsurance and I wondering how he could be dropping so much $$ when his business HAD to be down..now i know…he’s spending his TARP early!!

  90. Shore Guy says:

    BC and Nicholas,

    About 18 months ago, we were looking on the OBX and the RE brokers had a real “Our clientele are doing well and are buying second homes without regard to price” attitude. At that point we had concluded that there was no value in the pricing. We also concluded we would not buy oceanfront; I found a Web site put up by one NC government agency or another and the erosion is a HUGE issue. It appears that any home between the ocean and Virginia Dare Trail is not long for this world. There is erosion of something on the order of 5-15 feet a year.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BsWsB_ocppk

  91. Shore Guy says:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rtfr6dRxTfc

    Another reason to be back a bit, at least for a house one owns.

  92. Shore Guy says:

    Grim,

    These, not unlike the ones from the Nags Head listing, are just too close to the water.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q6ueyGRe0F8

  93. Shore Guy says:

    One last one for anyone thinking east of Virginia Dare Trail, and remember this is just a garden-cvariety storm, not a tropical storm or hurricane:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qLm_OeOiXUU&NR=1

  94. Roy G Biv says:

    Daily reader here, but not to quick on the inside jokes, sorry. Anyway, looking to ‘profit’ from this downturn by Garage/Rummage/Flea markets sales this summer. So PLEASE post any you know of during the next several months.

  95. Nicholas says:

    That is south nags head that was shown in that video. Yeah a lot of the coastline is eroding quite quickly.

    I traditionally stay farther north near Pine Island. It is a bit more substantial and from what I have seen they do a good job planting dune grasses along the primary sand dune.

    Pine Island has trees on it (go figure) which help to reduce the amount of erosion.

    http://www.carolinaouterbanks.com/Sat_Composite.htm

    If you are looking at picture A, Pine Island is just about as far north as the picture shows. This puts it sort of in the shelter of the “horn” that the OBX creates. Tropical storms that come from the warmer waters south usually break on the lower bend before reaching up that far. The storms usually move NW instead of SW protecting that portion from high levels of erosion that you see in some of the other storms.

    You are correct that you would need to study the weather patterns carefully before making a purchase decision on some of the homes in the OBX. The last great storm that came through the OBX punched a whole other break in the sand bar they call the OBX. Instead of two major breaks between the sea and the bay now there are three.

  96. Zack says:

    Banks doing stress test on themselves!! Doesn’t make sense at all. Why should Banks tell the truth??

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aEX9sBcofMYY&refer=home

  97. Sean says:

    re: #101 – The validity of any test can be called into question when everyone passes.

    Either way if any of the 19 banks fail the stress test won’t be taken in FDIC receivership they will just be given more TARP.

    All of this baloney about stress tests, is all smoke and mirrors to hide Geithner’s dirty little secret.

    That dirty little secret is that Geithner is going to great degrees to obscure from the public is very simple. There are only at most perhaps five US banks that are the source of the toxic poison causing such dislocation in the world financial system. What Geithner is desperately trying to protect is that reality.

    The heart of the present problem, and the reason ordinary loan losses are not the problem as in prior bank crises, is a variety of exotic financial derivatives, most especially credit default swaps.

    Close down those 5 banks and wipe out the derivatives, otherwise we will all be in for a long long period of malaise.

    What I expect to happen is the markets will continue to correct and eventually Geithner will be tossed out of office by O’bama who will no longer be mister popularity due to the continued economic dislocation.

  98. grim says:

    From Reuters:

    Six Flags delisted from New York Stock Exchange

    ix Flags Inc said on Thursday that its common stock and preferred income equity redeemable shares were suspended from trading on the New York Stock Exchange for failing to meet listing criteria.

    The New York-based company’s shares have been suspended from trading on the exchange effective at the market opening on April 20.

  99. grim says:

    From Newsweek:

    $89 Million Down, Untold Billions To Go

    Sun Bancorp, a small bank based in New Jersey, yesterday became one of the first banks to repay the TARP funds received from the Treasury department (the press release can be seen here).

    On January 9, the Treasury Department bought 89,310 of preferred stock form the bank for $1,000 each. Yesterday, Sun Bancorp bought back the shares and paid $657,000 in interest, a return of about .74 percent in three months.

    Lets play this out as an investment. The Treasury Department borrowed money from taxpayers in January for three months, when three-month Treasury bills were yielding about .11 percent. It lent the money to Sun Bancorp at a much higher rate (about 3 percent). Sun Bancorp repaid the loan with interest three months later, leaving the taxpayer with a tidy profit on the transaction.

  100. reinvestor101 says:

    First let me go on record and say that I find this liberal administration detestable, but they do have something right here. We don’t need anyone spooking anyone right now about these damn stress tests. Hell, the results could cause unwanted stress for us investors on top of all the stress we’ve had to endure already. Finally, someone is learning to keep their damn mouth shut rather than say something negative.

    Negative talk is always bad and could be considered unpatriotic.

    Zack says:
    April 10, 2009 at 1:50 pm
    Banks doing stress test on themselves!! Doesn’t make sense at all. Why should Banks tell the truth??

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aEX9sBcofMYY&refer=home

  101. grim says:

    Lil’ Kim wants to be mayor of Hoboken?

  102. BC Bob says:

    “Hell, the results could cause unwanted stress for us investors”

    50.5,

    Hope this helps;

    A few easy tips to solve your stress:

    -Every day take a walk outside

    -Laugh

    -Sing

    -Paint

    -Do sports

    http://www.no-fooling.com/Articles/how-to-solve-stress.htm

  103. Shore Guy says:

    Owning Six Flags stock has bee a real rollercoaster ride.

  104. grim says:

    Lil’ Kim wants to be mayor of Hoboken?

    Hoax, too bad.

  105. Sastry says:

    Nom… the rant was an attempt at sarcasm directed at ASU — for publicly trying to make a political statement at a commencement. That too by insulting a guest that they invited in the first place. Sends a wrong message about the school administration (which may get translated to the school).

    This will play out with the university administration apologizing (and rightfully so).

    Of course, I agree that the worth of a college degree is determined more by who is carrying it than where it was granted.

    S

  106. Barbara says:

    I don’t get the OBX hype. I spent two vacations there (they were free and I was young and broke) and I didn’t care for any of it. No culture, bad food and the beaches are crummy with a large drop off and major undertow. Plus getting there is a betch.

  107. Sean says:

    Speaking of crime, my wife knows the Minnesota woman in the news story linked below, she was stabbed multiple times and is critical condition and may not make it.

    Some whacked out 18 yr old attacked her in the attached garage of their home at late the other night.

    http://ksax.com/article/stories/S870818.shtml?cat=10230

  108. zieba says:

    speaking of crime and whacked out 18 year olds. I saw “Funny Games” last night. What a gruesome yet captivating remake of the original.

  109. Clotpoll says:

    Can’t wait for the thick of earnings season to hit.

    Yeah, SPG, GGP and all the SRS components are gonna kill.

    Yeah, right.

    May have to buy another big slug of SRS next week. Maybe even have to put some fresh $$$ toward it, rather than realized gains from the last moon shot.

    Spent the last two days telling clients and prospects that they are gd’d fools if they buy the “recovery” hype.

    I’m sure Grim can back me up: lots of lookers, very few buyers.

  110. grim says:

    I’m sure Grim can back me up: lots of lookers, very few buyers.

    What recovery? I think too many agents are mistaking the normal seasonal uptick of spring sales as a recovery. Ain’t so.

    Bergen County PRIME
    Allendale, Franklin Lakes, Glen Rock, Ho Ho Kus, Mahwah, Midland Park, Oakland, Ramsey, Ridgewood, Saddle River, Upper Saddle River, Waldwick, Wyckoff
    SFH, Condo, Coop

    First Quarter Sales
    2003 – 421
    2004 – 417
    2005 – 377
    2006 – 343
    2007 – 380
    2008 – 261
    2009 – 184 (Down 29.5% YOY, Down 56.3% from peak)

    First Quarter Contracts
    2003 – 494
    2004 – 608
    2005 – 550
    2006 – 504
    2007 – 563
    2008 – 392
    2009 – 290 (Down 26% YOY, Down 52.3% from peak)

  111. Clotpoll says:

    This is it…the big pump before the big dump (metaphorically-speaking, that is).

    Best thing that’s happened this year is my 10th grade daughter made starting midfield at N Hunterdon. Now I get to watch her chase future D-1 players 3x a week. Still an absolute pleasure. She’s holding her own.

    I will now shut up about her for the rest of the Spring. Had to brag…sorry.

    It makes the human sewage I deal with all day much more palatable.

  112. BC Bob says:

    Private/Public Partnership- Legacy Assets;

    http://cagle.com/politicalcartoons/PCcartoons/matson.asp

  113. grim says:

    Actually, Clot, in all seriousness, there is strength in some subsections of the market. March contracts have seen a major uptick in areas that have seen big price declines.

    For example,

    Dover, Morris Co.
    March 2008 – 4 Contracts (Med $269,900)
    March 2009 – 10 Contracts (Med $169,000)
    37.4% YOY decline in the median price

    East Orange, Essex Co.
    March 2008 – 10 Contracts (Med $199,999)
    March 2009 – 16 Contracts (Med $149,900)
    25% YOY decline in the median price

    Paterson, Passaic Co.
    March 2008 – 15 Contracts (Med $274,900)
    March 2009 – 25 Contracts (Med $200,000)
    27.2% YOY decline in the median price

    Elizabeth, Union Co.
    March 2008 – 8 Contracts (Med $259,900)
    March 2009 – 22 Contracts (Med $167,500)
    35.6% YOY decline in the median price

    Sad to say, based on contract volumes, these are some of the stronger markets in North Jersey right now…

  114. njExpatSoon2beUSAexpat says:

    Ya’ll need to sell out and move out of NJ lock stock and barrel. I’m trying to help. There is no hope for NJ. It is done, finito. The sooner you get over it and leave the better you will be. It is getting harder and harder to leave NJ… you can’t sell your house, you can’t get off their tax radar etc. They are scum… they as in the state and local gov’s of NJ. Pure scum. It is a welfare state. There are more on the dole then putting in. Double, triple dipping pensioners, over timers. Teachers, cops, road departments, xyz useless bureacrats.. all sucking it dry. Just get out. Get out and don’t go back, or you’ll be taxed and tolled, and maybe given a seatbelt or cellphone ticket.

    NJ was the hotbed of our nation.. WAS. The American Revolution was fought and won their. The inventions…the light bulb, the submarine.. the telecom stuff, the drugs… Edison, JNJ, Nabisco, ATT, Bell Labs, all the greatness… Going, Going, GONE.

    It is now a hot bed of Marxism and stupid liberal politics…it is a hotbed of self destruction and tyranny. Just get out.

    Save your wallet and your family from the wrath of NJ scum.

    Good luck.

  115. HEHEHE says:

    Five Things: A Beautiful Scheme

    1. A Beautiful Scheme

    Bad Real Estate Bets May Lead More Local Banks to Fail
    - USA Today, April 9, 2009, “How Big Gambles Took Down Small Banks”

    That’s the grim headline screaming across the top of the USA Today Money section. So far this year, 21 banks have failed, and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. is “keeping an eye on” at least 250 more “problem institutions” it believes are at risk of collapsing.

    Making the list of FDIC “problem institutions” is a bit like having your photograph quietly circulated among Atlantic City casinos for getting caught palming chips at the craps table. The FDIC, like casinos, demonstrably has a high tolerance for cheating, but this is key: it must be the right kind of cheating. Palming chips is a clumsy and embarrassing way to get banned from a casino, an act that reeks of reckless desperation. Which is why it’s so hated. No one likes a dishonest cheater.

    And that brings us back to the FDIC. Earlier this week NY Times writer Andrew Sorkin reported that the FDIC is going to be insuring 85% of the debt – funneled through the Treasury – that “private” investors will use to acquire assets via the Public-Private Investment Program, or PPIP.

    Although this is way beyond the scope and charter of the FDIC, certainly well above the provision that limits the FDIC to insuring no more than $30 billion, it’s okay, we’re told, because the FDIC can pretty much do whatever the hell it wants if the Treasury Secretary thinks it is necessary. Which he does.

    It this sounds complex, don’t worry… It’s not. The nut of the thing is this: The FDIC, which was forced in March to raise fees to bolster its $15.7 billion bank insurance fund, and despite an increasing list of at-risk banks with deposits it will likely be be forced to cover, is being used to “guarantee” loans to investors.

    Why? That also isn’t very complex. The FDIC has effectively been hijacked by Wall Street to protect banks, shoving the FDIC’s original mission — to protect depositors — a notch or 2 down the financial food chain.

    Naturally, the FDIC “projects no losses” on these loans, as Sorkin reported in his original article. Because if they did, they wouldn’t be able to insure them in the first place.

    So what happens if, for some unexpected reason, the loans do show some losses? Good question. And if you think about it for a moment, you can begin to see precisely why the FDIC is being used in this way: Congress won’t authorize $1 trillion dollars in loan guarantees to finance the PPIP, because that would be a direct ripoff, and people would get upset. Seats would be lost.

    But, if the FDIC guarantees the loans, and makes a mistake, well… We have to save the FDIC – they guarantee all our deposits.

    It’s a beautiful scheme. Indeed, in the most perverse way imaginable, it’s the kind of scheme Americans can be proud of.

    http://www.minyanville.com/articles/baseball-recession-depression-FDIC-Bair-sheila/index/a/22130

  116. BC Bob says:

    Just bored at the office;

    “Richard says:
    January 12, 2007 at 9:56 am
    spin it however you like, consumer spending numbers were very good and that bodes ill for those hoping for rate cuts.”

  117. livinginpa says:

    I’m with you Barbara. Been to OBX two times – one with kids/family and one without. Duck and Corolla Light. Honestly, it’s a hassle to get there, the beaches aren’t great and the traffic is awful. Literally took us an hour and forty-five minutes to get from causeway up to Corolla Light. No culture, bad food. IMHO beside the cheaper RE prices, no other reason to go.

    My cousin owns there and has found it to be more of a hassle than anything else. Sorry Shore.

  118. BC Bob says:

    Buried somewhere in Miami;

    listentothecrybabywannabehomeowners says:
    January 12, 2007 at 11:02 pm
    Al,

    Are you for real??

    listentothecrybabywannabehomeowners! It’s not by accident they’re wannabes!

    WAAAAAAAAAH!!!

  119. BC Bob says:

    Last one;

    Better lower your prices fast or else your home equity (if u have any now) will just go POOOOOOOFFF says:
    January 12, 2007 at 4:06 pm
    It’s abuse a starving realtor weekend. Kick a few around.

    It’s payback time baby for years of trashing young buyers.

    BOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAAA

    Bob

  120. HEHEHE says:

    Hope for the 2x and 3x Shorts:

    “Following on the circumstantial evidence track, as Zero Hedge pointed out previously, over the past month, the Volume Weighted Average Price of the SPY index indicates that the bulk of the upswing has been done through low volume buying on the margin and from overnight gaps in afterhours market trading. The VWAP of the SPY through yesterday indicated that the real price of the S&P 500 would be roughly 60 points lower, or about 782, if the low volume marginal transactions had been netted out. And yet the market keeps on rising. This is an additional data point demonstrating that the equity market has reached a point where the transactions on the margin are all the matter as the core volume/liquidity providers slowly disappear one by one through ongoing deleveraging.

    Unfortunately for them, this is not a sustainable condition.

    As more and more quants focus on trading exclusively with themselves, and the slow and vanilla money piggy backs to low-vol market swings, the aberrations become self-fulfilling. What retail investors fail to acknowledge is that the quants close out a majority of their intraday positions at the end of each trading day, meaning that the vanilla money is stuck as a hot potato bagholder to what can only be classified as an unprecedented ponzi scheme. As the overall market volume is substantially lower now than it has been in the recent past, this strategy has in fact been working and will likely continue to do so… until it fails and we witness a repeat of the August 2007 quant failure events… at which point the market, just like Madoff, will become the emperor revealing its utter lack of clothing.

    So what happens in a world where the very core of the capital markets system is gradually deleveraging to a point where maintaining a liquid and orderly market becomes impossible: large swings on low volume, massive bid-offer spreads, huge trading costs, inability to clear and numerous failed trades. When the quant deleveraging finally catches up with the market, the consequences will likely be unprecedented, with dramatic dislocations leading the market both higher and lower on record volatility. Furthermore, high convexity names such as double and triple negative ETFs, which are massively disbalanced with regard to underlying values after recent trading patterns, will see shifts which will make the November SRS jump to $250 seem like child’s play.”

    http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/04/incredibly-shrinking-market-liquidity.html

  121. stan says:

    Ahhhhh Richard. I wonder what he’s thinking right now.

  122. gary says:

    Major league stab in the heart. If this one sells for this price then comps are gonna take a f*cking whack. I think it’s bank owned… at the end of a cul-de-sac, in a truly fabulous neighborhood with picturesque surroundings. I’m the biggest f*cking skeptic but this one can convince me that fundamentals do exist and that assets do revert to the mean when all is said and done.

    http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/Mahwah_NJ_07430_1107495067

  123. Sean says:

    From CR and fitting with today’s thread on the Outer Banks is bank failure Friday.

    The Bank that Failed you ask?

    Cape Fear Bank

  124. grim says:

    Gary,

    Asking on that place back near the end of 2000 was $659,000. Was reduced to $599,900 and then expired in April of 2001.

    Was sold in 2001 for $550,000.

    Came on the market in early March of this year for $699,900, reduced down to $629,900.

    IMHO, not a bad price, we’re talking about less than 2% per year appreciation from purchase.

    Bank owned, Tribeca Lending.

  125. Sean says:

    re #129 – Grim got and address on the Mahwah house? I’d like to see it on a Map.

  126. grim says:

    Bank Failure Good Friday!

  127. grim says:

    Or is it Good Bank Failure Friday?

  128. grim says:

    Just logged out of the njmls, got to hit the road, will post it up a bit later.

  129. grim says:

    1 Decker Ct

  130. Jeff K says:

    Either this price is a typo or this house is selling for $167,000 less than what is was sold for brand new in Nov 07. MLS# 903495 Im going to guess it’s a mistake price but if it’s not, it might be a sign of things to come… :)

  131. Sean says:

    I agree with Gary the comps are going to get blow out of the water in that neighborhood of Mahwah.

    Nice wooded lot on a reasonably quiet street except for perhaps noise from 287. Too bad the commute to NYC would suck from there.

    Check out the flyover on MSN.

    http://maps.live.com/default.aspx?v=2&FORM=LMLTCC&cp=41.047326~-74.184309&style=h&lvl=17&tilt=-44.9905272193477&dir=7.93922031199728&alt=1037.04254395422&cam=41.043312~-74.182053&phx=-0.202717934807599&phy=0.468719318829993&phscl=5.48695047135134&scene=23624021&encType=1

  132. gary says:

    Grim & Sean,

    Drove by the house today and walked around the perimeter and peaked inside. You can hear some traffic in the distance from 287 but nowhere near an issue. The house also has an inground pool with a small cabana-type house. If I didn’t get down-sized, I would’ve made a call about this one already.

  133. skep-tic says:

    I am a good swimmer, but I am afraid to go swimming in the outer banks having almost drowned off corolla many years back. I would certainly never allow young kids to go swimming there unless it was on the sound side. in general, if buying there I would look on the sound side as well. Less hurricane risk, more peaceful, more owners, fewer renters, better for boating.

  134. BC Bob says:

    Gary,

    Not in NNJ, it’s different here.

  135. gary says:

    BC Bob,

    This is one time I’d love to be proven dead wrong! :)

  136. bi says:

    9#, freedy,
    he is a prophet. he doesn’t need gabage charts. you should ask why a chart cannot read him.

    >freedy says:
    April 10, 2009 at 6:37 am
    anybody think Mike Morgan has learned how to read a chart yet?

  137. BC Bob says:

    “he doesn’t need gabage charts”

    Bi,

    You from Southie, South Boston?

  138. Cindy says:

    http://fresnobeehive.com/news/2009/04/home_values_stabilizing.html#more

    Since you mentioned the sales were up in areas where you saw the largest price drop, I thought you might find these stats from the Cenrtal Valley – CA interesting….but there is a catch – more houses are on the way.

    With all of the beach front property talk…I couldn’t resist the line “he expects another wave of bank-owned houses to crash onto shore in the next few months”

    “The demand is so great that the number of houses for sale in Fresno and Clovis has slid from 4,192 in March of 2008 to less than 2,000. Real estate agents are reporting multiple offers and the inventory has fallen from a 16-month supply a year and a half ago to only 3.5 months, said Don Scordino, past president of the Fresno Association of Realtors.”

    snip

    “As a result, the months-long drop in prices appears to have leveled off in some regions. The median price in Fresno and Clovis climbed from $125,000 in February to $146,000 in March, and the last 200 foreclosures sold at an average 102.5% of the asking price.”

    “Low prices, low interest and temporary tax credits designed to stimulate purchases are luring buyers, many of them first time-homeowners and investors.”

    “But here’s the rub. Some analysts think the supply of houses will pick up, and the uptick in values will be only temporary.”

    “The inventory dwindled in part because the number of foreclosures coming up for sale shriveled as banks declared a moratorium that started at the holidays and continued through last month”

    “Foreclosure expert Rick Hauff of London Properties says banks are trying to modify loans, but he expects another wave of bank-owned houses to crash onto shore in the next few months as the moratorium expires and as unemployment takes its toll.”

    “Once they release the properties, the inventory will be back up,” he said. “You won’t see all the multiple offers, and there will be an increase in the number of houses for sale.”

    “That could keep a lid on price appreciation until the newest wave dissipates, but Hauff doesn’t expect substantial declines in value. Sales activity is too robust.”

  139. bi says:

    145#,
    i would get the house for free and 2.5% rebate. i love california!

    >the last 200 foreclosures sold at an average 102.5% of the asking price.

  140. bi says:

    146#, sorry. i read it in a wrong way.

  141. bi says:

    with spx up 5 weeks in row andfinancials and reits up 14% in a week, goldman, jpm and MS earnings out next week, i cann’t wait.
    http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=SPY#chart2:symbol=spy;range=5d;compare=iyr+xlf;indicator=volume;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined

  142. coolwadprof says:

    [url=http://www.futuracomposites.nl/Forum/phpBB2/profile.php?mode=viewprofile&u=2323]Charlotte Used Cars[/url] Charlotte Used Cars. Virginia Beach Used Cars

  143. Cindy says:

    So does anyone know how to receive a winmail dat file attached to an email? I have saved this darn thing 12 times. Nothing I do will get it to OPEN.

    Using Windows Vista/Firefox

    Note: Cussing at the computer hasn’t helped so suggest something different.

  144. safeashouses says:

    #151 Cindy

    did you try clicking on the forward button, than opening it in the to be forwarded message? that works for me sometimes.

  145. bi says:

    149#, sean, even my retirement account will be in good shape after dow passes 9000 mark. i would be in big doo doo if it goes back to 6000 again.

  146. kettle1 says:

    Quick, everyone call the bank!!!!

    Obama Says Timing Right for Millions to Refinance

    Declaring “good news” in the midst of an economic meltdown, President Barack Obama on Thursday urged families to take advantage of near-record low mortgage rates by refinancing their home loans. “We are at a time where people can really take advantage of this,” Obama said, seated with a handful of homeowners who have already lowered their bills.

    http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=7297816

  147. Cindy says:

    (152) Safe – No – No go for me but thanks anyway. I just replied – “please send this to me in a different format.”
    I didn’t cuss or anything.

  148. firestormik says:

    Cindy,
    Fighting with this issue for a quite long time. Upgrading MS office to 2007 helped a bit

  149. BC Bob says:

    “i would be in big doo doo if it goes back to 6000 again.”

    bi,

    Watch out, you’ll be in deep piles.

    Can’t wait until everybody is convinced the bottom is in and plows forward, driving the S&P towards its 200 day mov avg. Bulls will be snorting and bears will be covering. Just standard market action retracing 30-40% of its fall. Classic text book. Great time to lay out the shorts for the big move down.

    IMO, S&P earnings approx 40-50. Do you actually think investors, will confidently pay more than 10X? Let’s take it a step further, how about investors pay 5-6X, just like the mid 80′s and the 30′s? You do the math. Dow 6000? You hope that’s the extent of the carnage.

    Disclaimer: I’m long. A ton of gabage.

    By the way, do you know why the second name in S&P is Poor’s?

  150. BC Bob says:

    Mistake, mid 70′s.

  151. Cindy says:

    (156) Thanks firestormik – It is what it is. I’m over it. Thanks for letting me vent.

  152. reinvestor101 says:

    BC Bob,

    I’m very disappointed in your dredging up these old posts by one THE BIGGEST real estate terrorists who has ever been on this board. Booya Bob has not been here for at least two years, yet you go look up his old posts and post them again.

    You and I agree on almost nothing, but at least you were restrained in your behavior and not like the unrepetant wild eyed radicals like Pat, Clod, Stu and a few others here. I’m very disappointed in your behavior.

    BC Bob says:
    April 10, 2009 at 4:25 pm
    Last one;

    Better lower your prices fast or else your home equity (if u have any now) will just go POOOOOOOFFF says:
    January 12, 2007 at 4:06 pm
    It’s abuse a starving realtor weekend. Kick a few around.

    It’s payback time baby for years of trashing young buyers.

    BOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAAA

    Bob

  153. still_looking says:

    ReTard, 160

    ….and Booyah Bob is sorely, sorely missed.

    you, on the other hand, we would miss like a bad sore.

    sl

  154. Stu says:

    “wild eyed radicals”

    How can I be both rock-ribbed and wild-eyed?

  155. reinvestor101 says:

    What??? You really have some nerve comparing me to a scab. Look, Dr. Pottymouth, for someone so petite, you’ve got a mouth like a damn sailor. You’re way worse that Booya, Pat, Clod and Stu combined.

    I just know you terrorize the hell out of your patients. What the hell kind of bedside manner requires you to curse a damn patient out while they’re trying to convalese in the damn hospital? How in the hell can someone get well in that scenario? Look, I know hospital finances are such that they try to get people in and out, but having people want to quickly leave due to a damn doctor cursing at them borders on the ridiculous.

    Lady, you scare me worst that sas and kettle ever could and that’s saying a lot considering how spooky both of them are.

    still_looking says:
    April 10, 2009 at 9:50 pm
    ReTard, 160

    ….and Booyah Bob is sorely, sorely missed.

    you, on the other hand, we would miss like a bad sore.

    sl

  156. BklynHawk says:

    Cindy-
    Firefox is kind of funny with downloads. Do you have IE? Try IE and also try right-clicking you mouse and choosing Save Target As.

    Let me know if that helps.

  157. grim says:

    Cost to the FDIC:

    Cape Fear Bank – $131 million
    New Frontier Bank – $670 million
    Total – $801 million

    Almost a billion dollars of the FDIC trust fund wiped out on a single Friday.

    Eh, whats a billion dollars these days anyway.

  158. BC Bob says:

    “You and I agree on almost nothing”

    50.5,

    Let’s get something straight. Almost?

    Boiler Up.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rsGJyUAp9O0

  159. confused in nj says:

    Interesting thing is people still look at the stock market, and ignore the trillions in debt be amassed.

  160. Cindy says:

    (164) BklynHawk – I do have IE and tried that as well. I chose Adobe Reader and it said it couldn’t read it. That it wasn’t formatted when attached to the email. I also went into some MS message boards looking for answers to no avail. The right click idea didn’t work either.

    It’s fine. I just thought maybe there was something easy I could do. Many thanks for the advise.

  161. bi says:

    167#, what would you do with your extra money? to me i shouldn’t put it in the bank due to the same fact of trillions of debt.

  162. firestormik says:

    Cindy,
    That’s a problem on the other end. MS Exchange sucks :( Nothing you can do

  163. reinvestor101 says:

    reinvestor101 says:
    Your comment is awaiting moderation.

    April 10, 2009 at 11:28 pm
    BC,

    Just as I thought you could stoop no lower, you plumb the depths of new lows by posting something here about that damn cornfield masquerading as a university in West Lafayette Indiana. There can’t be any possibly worst than this. This is way worst than a post from most rabid real estate terrorist here.

    Here’s something that’s redemptive and cleans this board:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xvs_BMxDJ9A&NR=1

    Let’s keep it clean ok?

    BC Bob says:
    April 10, 2009 at 11:07 pm
    “You and I agree on almost nothing”

    50.5,

    Let’s get something straight. Almost?

    Boiler Up.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rsGJyUAp9O0

  164. Shore Guy says:

    Thanks for the OBX feedback. We are looking for something that could be used in winter for semi-snowbirding at some point down the line.

    What I have heard today of the Corolla to Nags head area seems to confirm existing perceptions. The rip current was new to me and very much appreciated. We are not much for ocean swimming or for hanging out on the beach during the day but prefer to walk the beach/surf in the early morning and early evening. Still, one must be mindful of dangerous currents and that information is indeed helpful.

    Does anyone have experience with and thoughts on the area from Atlantic Beach to Emerald Island on Bogue Banks? I believe it is called the Crystal Coast, or something like that. It seems to be a couple hours south but better situated with respect to tropical storms.

  165. Shore Guy says:

    I have not found any areas in GA or SC that seem to meet our needs, in terms of location and price range. I suppose there is always Florida but we have never given it much thought. It has always struck me as very flat, do I don’t know that we can find something close to the sand but on land 30 feet above sea level.

  166. kettle1 says:

    shore,

    the only place you will find that is the Caribbean, central america or the northwest US

  167. cobbler says:

    [165] grim
    Looks like New Frontier was the worst of the 23 banks closed so far this year. Nobody wants to buy any of their assets; as far as I remember they had consistently been on the list of highest deposit rates (at bankrate.com), and it looks like most of their deposits are brokered – so the depositors will have a real pain in the neck waiting for their cash to arrive from FDIC. Still, if my math is correct, all 23 shutdown banks together are much less damaging to FDIC than WaMu alone last year.

  168. Sastry says:

    Cindy,

    Try opening with outlook. save file as and then with outlook.

    I’ve had some problems with winmail.dat attachments. Micro$oft’s proprietary cr@p

    S

  169. Stu says:

    reInvestor:

    Convalese? Is that where criminals store their close when they travel?

  170. Stu says:

    close should be clothes. Oy vey!

  171. safeashouses says:

    #160 re101

    Booya Bob was right.

    It is payback time.

    Too bad we’re all going to get stuck with the bill.

  172. scribe says:

    Re said:

    reinvestor101 says:
    April 10, 2009 at 10:54 pm

    What??? You really have some nerve comparing me to a scab. Look, Dr. Pottymouth, for someone so petite

    Re, how would you know sl is petite?

  173. kettle1 says:

    Worries Rise Over Japanese Banks

    Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group was a hot potatoes Friday, as investors raced to unload shares of the smallest of Japan’s big three megabanks after it said it would hold a massive share sale that would dilute its share value by nearly a third. Sell orders outnumbered buy orders to such an extent that the stock did not move for much of the morning session, with the stock eventually closing down 14%. The retreat spread to Japan’s other two megalenders, which are set to post results soon, as investors lost faith that the relatively conservative Japanese banking system will be a global stalwart amid the financial slump.

    http://www.forbes.com/2009/04/10/sumitomo-mitsui-loss-markets-equity-megabank.html

  174. rhymingrealtor says:

    We never suffered the terrible twos or the threes and attribute it mostly to making sure that Lil Gator, an only child, doesn’t think the world revolves around only him nor does his school.

    Hey Stu and Gator,

    That’s a great theory, but it can only be tested when you have child # 2

    KL (-:

  175. GerryAdams says:

    Gary (129)

    Gary,
    Without the number to prove it, I would suspect that the inventory of $500k-550k homes is declining much faster than anything in the 600k-650k range. If you want the lowest interest rates, you need to max out the loan at 417k with of course 20% down. The jumbo conforming loans are 6.2 instead of high 4s.

    BTW TD bank is jumping into jumbo mortgages faster than anyone other banks with a 6.2% rate. That only confirms my suspicion that they are cowboys.

    FYI – an alternative to OBX is Ocean Isle Beach NC – much quieter, warmer water, OK rentals in the summer. No real businesses on the island. They have massively built up the bay side with condos recently though. The west end is a gated community and the east end is sinking into the ocean slowly. It is about 45 minutes north of Myrtle Beach and 30 minutes south of cape fear.

  176. chifi - in penn says:

    Clotpoll says:
    April 10, 2009 at 3:59 pm

    It makes the human sewage I deal with all day much more palatable.

    clot: I thought you appreciated the people on this blog.

  177. yikes says:

    Barbara says:
    April 10, 2009 at 3:31 pm

    I don’t get the OBX hype. I spent two vacations there (they were free and I was young and broke) and I didn’t care for any of it. No culture, bad food and the beaches are crummy with a large drop off and major undertow. Plus getting there is a betch.

    And the Jersey shore is loaded with culture and easy to get to?

    I’m not overly-pro Nags head or otherwise … but we went there a ton growing up and I much prefer the beaches up north (New York, NJ).

  178. JBJB says:

    Now this is an aggressive seller.

    http://www.forsalebyowner.com/listing/2160B

    5br, 3ba, 3200 sq.ft on 1.75 acres in the Oak Hill section of Middletown for 575K? Assessed in 2009 at 752K. He is not going to make is neighbors very happy with this. I am not really into the contemporary design, nor the 16K/yr property taxes, but it’s nice to see a seller who is some what realistic about the current market. Maybe he is trying to spark a bidding war.

  179. yikes says:

    what bi’s suicide letter will look like when the dow plunges back down to 6000

    (someone posted this awhile ago)

    From: [REDACTED]
    Sent: Thursday, May 27, 2004 1:11 PM
    Subject: FW: Goodbye…

    As many of you are aware, today is my last day at the firm. It is time for me to move on and I want you to know that I have accepted a position as “Trophy Husband”. This decision was quite easy and took little consideration. However, I am confident this new role represents a welcome change in my life and a step up from my current situation. While I have a high degree of personal respect for PHJW as a law firm, and I have made wonderful friendships during my time here, I am no longer comfortable working for a group largely populated by gossips, backstabbers and Napoleonic personalities. In fact, I dare say that I would rather be dressed up like a pinata and beaten than remain with this group any longer. I wish you continued success in your goals to turn vibrant, productive, dedicated associates into an aimless, shambling group of dry, lifeless husks.

    May the smoke from any bridges I burn today be seen far and wide.

    Respectfully submitted,

    [SIGNED]

    ps. Achilles absent, was Achilles still. (Homer)

    p.p.s. When you’re standing on a burning bridge the view is kinda hazy.

  180. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [182] kettle

    Yikes. Another of my former clients getting hammered. Wonder how my buds Tomo, Nobu, and Hiro are making out over there?

  181. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [188] Yikes

    I did. It came from a Paul Hastings associate named Harris, back in 2004 and became a sensation before the day was out.

    I sent it to some friends at my firm, some of whom knew I was planning to leave, and they all thought I wrote it and had planned to send it. I was miserable, but not stupid enough to send around something like that.

    BTW. Harris was a Harvard Law School grad. So much for good judgment taught at HLS.

  182. Sean says:

    Some good news the attorney we hired to sue the pants off my FIL’s former employer was able to get him 1 year of severance. Bad news is I guess I won’t be driving his vette this summer. :(

  183. ricky_nu says:

    can someone get me the address of NJ MLS # 2908044

    thanks in advance!

  184. BC Bob says:

    “167#, what would you do with your extra money? to me i shouldn’t put it in the bank due to the same fact of trillions of debt.”

    Bi,

    Yet, it’s comforting to be a shareholder?

    Watch the technicals; mov avg, macd, etc.. Protect yourself.

  185. Sean says:

    Nice chart here on the ongoing pump.

    http://lh5.ggpht.com/_APmrYvpA45s/Sd_ttUmYHLI/AAAAAAAACvU/0Jizvgx16X8/s1600-h/net%5B2%5D.png

    Don’t want to be around for the the dump.

  186. bi says:

    188#,
    i wish dow to 5000 more than anybody here so i can load up all craps over there.

    >what bi’s suicide letter will look like when the dow plunges back down to 6000

  187. BC Bob says:

    bi,

    You can’t have it both ways; in deep doo-doo if 6,000 is reached, yet hoping for 5,000? Akin to the patient dying of cancer, yet cheering since he purchased cigarettes for 1/2 price on the internet?

  188. Shore Guy says:

    Dow 5,000 would likely be rather cathartic for the economy.

  189. Shore Guy says:

    In all senses of the word, actually.

  190. sas says:

    “AP IMPACT: Chinese drywall poses potential risks”

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090411/ap_on_bi_ge/chinese_drywall

  191. sas says:

    “Significant” layoffs for Hoboken police, fire and city workers

    http://www.nj.com/hobokennow/index.ssf/2009/04/significant_layoffs_for_hoboke.html

  192. Shore Guy says:

    Loks like it has never been a better time for municipal consolidation in NJ.

  193. Shore Guy says:

    SAS,

    Abouth the drywall, it is hard to believe that there could be any negative consequences from taking the ash left over from burning coal in powerplants and pressing it into wallboard. Next are they going to tell us mercury in fish is bad?

  194. CAIBC says:

    hoboken laying off police officers? shouldnt they be hiring more police officers right now….given the upcoming collapse in real estate in hoboken, (i am sure we all remember the good ol’ hoboken) the town should be really worried about the increase in crime….

    bad move with getting rid of the cops!!

    i am sure there are few ‘freeloaders’ and municipal folks they could ax before the cops go, right?

  195. Sean says:

    re: #204 CAIBC – The unions would rather layoffs than open up their contracts and take pay cuts across the board.

    Right now a battle is brewing between the CWA in NY and Governor, the Governor says 9k layoffs unless they give up their 3% raise this year. The CWA says it will be a cold day in hell before they set “precedent” and open up their contracts.

    In Denver the fire dept union decided to open up their contract and take a pay cut instead of layoffs.

    http://cbs4denver.com/local/firefighers.denver.concessions.2.977835.html

    An immovable object (the unions) is about to meet and irresistible force (the economy).

    This is going to end with lots of layoffs in every city and town.

  196. yikes says:

    #
    bi says:
    April 11, 2009 at 1:00 pm

    188#,
    i wish dow to 5000 more than anybody here so i can load up all craps over there.

    >what bi’s suicide letter will look like when the dow plunges back down to 6000
    #

    talking out of both sides of your mouth again?

  197. Clotpoll says:

    grim (120)-

    Yeah. The small areas of strength seem to mirror the turnarounds that have occurred in the sand states when prices got beaten down far enough.

    Hunterdon Central 13, N Hunterdon 11. HC- ranked, with 16 seniors and several future D1 players.

  198. Clotpoll says:

    Had the lead and the game on our sticks with less than 10 minutes left.

  199. Clotpoll says:

    bi (153)-

    Here’s wishing you end up neck-deep in poo, a la Slumdog.

  200. Clotpoll says:

    BC (160)-

    Congrats on making Tard’s shit list.

  201. Clotpoll says:

    Making Tard’s Enemy List= “Doctor, am I a retard?”= diagnosis negative

    Again, congrats, BC.

  202. bi says:

    206#, if you are investing in 10 year horrizon, you shouldn’t worry about dow 5000. yes, my current positions will be in big doo doo if it goes there. but i could buy much more at much cheaper. that’s all about value investment.
    i feel sorry for some mm cult members here who got a few shares of ultrashorts and now don’t know how to exit.

  203. Brook says:

    ATTENTION HOMEBUYERS in Morris County, NJ

    How to Beat the Home Buying Bubble of Over-Inflated Prices

    There is an answer to the astronomical rising prices of homes. Within our area, housing prices have more than doubled (and in some instances, have tripled) in the past 5-6 years for no reason except greed. People have put themselves into debt, because they did not want to lose a home because they became emotionally attached and in turn, took out a mortgage that a mortgage broker said they could afford -when in actuality they could not. I am a homeowner in Chatham and have lived here for most of my life. The realtors have strongly brainwashed homebuyers to purchase more expensive homes than they could afford and persuaded home buyers to take out huge mortgages in order to purchase a home. Due to the greed of the realtors, the homeowners who sold their homes, which accelerated into a false “supply and demand”, houses have escalated so much that middle class prospective homebuyers cannot afford to purchase a home. My children cannot afford to purchase a home.

    Greed has brought down Wall Street, Banks, Mortgage companies, and other large corporations. This is where we had to fall, in order to learn and know the important things in life. When I sell my home, it will be for the Pre-Real Estate Boom price: an average price where the middle class person can afford to purchase a home, easily. This will begin the lowering cost of homes. People are losing their homes and their jobs. Middle America cannot get over-inflated mortgages, any longer, nor do they want to. We have entered into an economic collapse.

    A colleague of mine has been looking to purchase his first home. Just to give you an example, in December 2002, the house sold for $210,000. In October 2008 (5 years later), the realtor has listed the home price as $420,000. Bear in mind, there has been a small amount of cosmetic work done to the home (nothing exceptional). The price has listed as more than doubled in the past 5 years, which is completely ludicrous. A doubling of a house price in 5 years is pure greed. This is just one of the many examples in this area of a 20 mile radius. Has your salary doubled or tripled within 5 years? No, in fact, many salaries have decreased in the past 5 years.

    When my colleague had questioned the realtor regarding the reasoning behind the over- inflated prices, she mentioned “it was for a reason.” She alluded to the statement to “keep particular people out.” I expressed to her how disgusting that was and at this time in history, someone actually had the audacity to express this sentiment. She was from a big conglomerate Realtor firm. Needless to say, my colleague dropped her as a realtor and strongly advises against recommending her company.

    People need to stick together and look at the “big picture” and look at their fellow man, instead of the most exhorbant amount of money they can put into their pockets.

    So, as homebuyers, there is a way to bring the prices of homes (Pre-boom real estate prices – 2001) to an affordable price.

    1) In the state of New Jersey, the cost of a sale of a home is public information. All records date back to the building of the home.

    2) Call the Taxation Dept. at the Borough Town Hall in the designated town. Give them the address of your prospective home and ask them all the sale dates of the home and what they sold for. You may want to know the last 3 or 4 home sales of the particular home in order to determine the inflated real estate boom market price and to determine a bid price.

    3) Bid according to the price BEFORE the Real Estate Boom Market. At the point of the Real Estate Boom Market – during and at its highest peak, these are over-inflated homes and they are simply not worth it.

    4) For example, the house that my colleague was reviewing, sold for $210,000 in December 2002. In October 2008, the realtor listed the price as $420,000. So, with the collapse of the economy; people losing their jobs and homes, coupled with the doubling over-inflated prices of homes, in order to bid for a home, bid closer to the 2002 price of $210,000 with an increase of a few dollars. Use your discretion.

    5) Do not be swayed by realtors. They are conniving, aggressive sales people, who are looking out for how much money they can put in their pockets. They are NOT looking out for your best interest, whatsoever. The most used phrase to attempt to condone listing homes with extremely high prices; even the most modest small/average home in the Chatham, NJ or the Morris County area, the realtor would say in that unconvincing wispy voice, “It’s C-h-a-t-h-a-m” or “It’s M-A-D-I-S-O-N.” You could sell a home in any neighborhood with those sales tactics and using that tone and connotation. “It’s W-H-I-P-P-A-N-Y.” Sounds the same, right? You understand the brainwashing techniques.

    There are homeowners in this area and the surrounding towns, who are able to sell their home for a reasonable price. Not everyone is greedy. Another friend of mine sold their home. This was at the beginning of the real estate boom. His house was listed as $750,000 by the realtor. He met a couple whom he liked. He expressed to the couple that he has been blessed with an average income and a wonderful family, and would like to give someone an opportunity. He sold his house for more than ½ the listed price at $350,000. Look at the possibilities. Do not listen to the negative people. Everything is possible.

    The more homebuyers use these tactics and stick to this principle, the more homes will decline in price, close to where they were before the Real Estate Inflationary Boom of Double and Triple prices. Soon, homebuyers will be able to purchase homes again at a reasonable price and not an inflationary false price.

    Good luck!

  204. safeashouses says:

    I’ve read this blog for such a long time I can usually id a post from the regular posters without reading their names.

  205. Pat says:

    bairen, I don’t even read the x says line, anymore. We know each other.

  206. samgoody says:

    Does anyone know what percentage of homes in NJ sell for over $1 Million? My son needs this for a school report.
    Thanks!

  207. Shore Guy says:

    Interesting question.

  208. safeashouses says:

    Check your freezers. Amazing how many frozen vegetables are from China.

  209. firestormik says:

    Checked. Don’t have any frozen vegetables :)

  210. CAIBC says:

    brook,

    its good to hear you keep good company but needless to say, not everyone (actually you are probably in a minority) is willing to give up their homes for what it should really go for….they saw their neighbors pocket a few hundred thousand for just staying in a POS Cape for a few years….not a bad deal right? this type of greed produces more greed and more greed produces…well you get the picture…

    unfortunately, we live in a society where money is the end all and people will do anything to get a little bit more…the funny thing is that all that money those greedy people accumulated probably went into another investments and its all coming down just like a house of cards…

    i saw this whole thing happening when i saw average people around me (i say that becuase i consider myself an average citizen making average $$) live like they were doctors and or lawyers….(i also saw doctors and lawyers living like they were CEOs and NBA team owners – but thats for a different discussion). everyone had a mercedes car and truck in their driveway…life was great! right? wrong! life was being built on that house of cards. it will all come crashing down one way or another…

    remember ‘for the love of money is the root of all evil’

    we are headed into an economic collapse that no one will be able to stop.

    oh by the way, i decided back in 2003 / 2004 that i will wait till this RE disaster flushes out to buy a modest home in a decent neighborhood. looks like i will be waiting longer than i expected….the only problem is that i will be buying into what is going to be the worst economic collapse ever! either way i loose i guess!!

  211. Essex says:

    Ah taxes complete. Moment of silence.

  212. Essex says:

    Was in Dobbs Ferry tonight. Nice little town.

  213. Sastry says:

    Anyone following the saga between this site and GS — read on slashdot re Goldman’s cease and detist…

    http://www.goldmansachs666.com/

    S

  214. Clotpoll says:

    Sean (195)-

    Massive, gapping swings in price. Low trading volume. Big players deleveraging.

    My kind of market!!!

    Great article. Thanks.

    “Furthermore, high convexity names such as double and triple negative ETFs, which are massively disbalanced with regard to underlying values after recent trading patterns, will see shifts which will make the November SRS jump to $250 seem like child’s play.”

  215. Clotpoll says:

    bi (212)-

    Dolt. You exit by hitting the “sell” button.

    But, that would take away the pleasure we’ll eventually have when your head is finally hoist on your own petard.

  216. CAIBC says:

    take a look at the front page article from bankrate.com…

    http://www.bankrate.com/finance/real-estate/now-is-the-time-to-buy-a-new-home.aspx

    i didnt know bankrate.com was owned and operated by realtors???

    if you read this article and didnt really pay attention to any of the stats, you would believe that if you didnt buy now, you would priced out for ever AGAIN!!!

    this propoganda is unbelievable….

  217. Clotpoll says:

    Brook (213)-

    Seek help. Ask for strong medication.

    It’s fun to read stuff that’s completely disconnected from reality, though.

  218. Clotpoll says:

    Brook (213)-

    Come spend a week with me. I’m a lot of awful things, but “conniving” and “aggressive” aren’t two of them.

    The market is taking down prices quite nicely, even in the “top” towns. Your collectivist pipedream of a plan is not necessary.

    You may be able to build a group of adherents who are as annoyingly self-righteous as you, though.

  219. safeashouses says:

    Cape in Chatham for 299k.

    http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/Chatham-Boro_NJ_07928_1107989470

    would that be 2002 or so price for Chatham?

  220. Clotpoll says:

    caibc (227)-

    Bankrate is a nasty, giant lead aggregator. The leads they generate are sold to agents and mortgage originators.

    Their stock is down over 50% in the last 12 months (NASDAQ: RATE).

  221. safeashouses says:

    Mountainside at 310k

    http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/Mountainside-Boro_NJ_07092_1099199749

    Breaks the string of 2 handles, but check out the decor!

  222. Clotpoll says:

    Mish, on Xanadu:

    “I predict near immediate bankruptcy if and when this boondoggle is complete.”

    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

  223. Clotpoll says:

    safe (235)-

    I thought the Branch Davidians had been wiped out.

    Who knew they were in Warren?

  224. safeashouses says:

    #237 clot,

    you ever see the compound in Basking Ridge by the Hills? Called sons of liberty or something like that.

  225. Clotpoll says:

    safe (239)-

    Every couple of years, that guy gets into an armed standoff with police. Good fun.

    That’s nothing, compared to his next door neighbor, the n00dist colony.

  226. yankee fan says:

    C.C.’s new house the one on Closter Dock Rd.?
    There are I believe 3 mansions still being built and from the picture, it looks like one of them??

  227. yankee fan says:

    C.C.’s new house the one on Closter Dock Rd.?
    There are I believe 3 mansions still being built and from the picture, it looks like one of them??

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