Home prices to fall an additional 15%, stay at bottom for 2 years

From Bloomberg:

New York Area Home Prices to Fall 15%, Rosen Says

Home prices in the New York City metropolitan area will fall as much as 15 percent as Wall Street firms cut jobs and slash bonuses, according to Kenneth Rosen, an economist at the University of California, Berkeley.

Luxury vacation markets such as the Hamptons on the east end of Long Island, New York; Lake Tahoe in California; and Aspen, Colorado will also suffer as the recession deepens, said Rosen, chairman of the Fisher Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics. Prices may fall 20 percent in those areas.

“These declines are happening but aren’t showing up in the data yet,” Rosen said in an interview. “Any place hit by the financial crisis will have substantial declines.”

Across the U.S., Rosen predicted house prices will fall another 7 percent, with parts of California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona posting additional declines of as much as 15 percent as those states absorb record foreclosures.

The housing market’s cumulative price drop from peak to trough will be 25 percent with, a “bottoming” period that begins this year and may last two years, Rosen said.

“Job losses are large and the foreclosure inventory is rising,” said Rosen, who also runs Rosen Real Estate Securities LLC in Berkeley, a hedge fund with about $300 million in assets. “It’s going to get worse before it gets better, even with the best government efforts.”

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

169 Responses to Home prices to fall an additional 15%, stay at bottom for 2 years

  1. zieba says:

    You guys were slow, I actually refreshed it a few times to make sure comments haven’t been posted.

    RE: Kenenas
    from previous thread, post one seventy something (lazy): are you referring to the private of public sector? and are you talking about wages/earnings at apex of the average joe’s career?

  2. grim says:

    From Editor and Publisher:

    ‘Jersey Journal’ Survival Plan Lays Off 17, Expands Local News

    NEW YORK The reorganization plan to keep The Jersey Journal of Jersey City publishing includes the layoffs of 17 employees — five in the newsroom — as well as cutbacks in single-copy distribution sites and an increased emphasis on local news.

  3. ricky_nu says:

    Bernanke says “trying to avoid undershoot of house prices, housing market extremely depressed, will try to avoid undershoot by easing mortgage market conditions”

    sounds like a good idea, get people to borrow more to give a bid to prices, it worked well last time……………

  4. HEHEHE says:

    How to Puff Up Earnings, Goldman Sachs Style

    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/how-to-puff-up-earnings-goldman-sachs-style/

    They changed their reporting calendar

  5. grim says:

    #3 – When all you know is bubbles, the only thing you can do when faced with a crisis is blow more bubbles.

  6. bi says:

    question to the board: if you are retiring today, how much do you need to live “comfortably”? assuming you are debt free

  7. ricky_nu says:

    probably a better idea to let prices revert back to some normal multiple of earnings……..oh wait WE CAN’T LET THAT HAPPEN!

  8. grim says:

    Historically, home prices lag, they don’t lead.

    If you focus on the economy, home prices will follow. Focus on home prices, nothing will change.

  9. BC Bob says:

    “will try to avoid undershoot by easing mortgage market conditions”

    Undershoot? The fed is in the business of price fixing?

    Easing; aka, debt monetization, aka, printing. Back to the 70’s, Stayin Alive.

  10. comrade nom deplume says:

    Good reads on the power of AMT to de-stroy. The second link is to the Speltz case, now not@rious among the tax crowd as it applies the AMT to a taxpayer that is not “rich” by O’bama standards, but got hit with a tax bill many times his salary. And the Tax Court upheld it. And no, I am not making this up.

    http://www.reformamt.org/articles/TaxNotes-20010618.pdf

    http://www.ustaxcourt.gov/InOpHistoric/Speltz.TC.WPD.pdf

    “Ronald J. Speltz, of Ely, Iowa, was earning about $75,000 annually as a senior manager for McLeodUSA. He exercised McLeod ISOs in 2000 with a bargain element of $711,118, resulting in $206,191 of AMT. Mr. and Mrs. Speltz also owed Iowa AMT of $46,792

    As many Iowans know, McLeod’s stock collapsed. Mr. Speltz found himself with a $206,000 tax bill on now nearly-worthlezs McLeod ISO shares.

    Mr. Speltz paid part of the tax with his 2000 return and borrowed $134,000 from a bank to pay some more; he then entered into an installment deal to pay the rest. He then tried to compromise the remaining $125,000 or so that he owed with $4,457, which was the cash value of a life insurance policy.

    The IRS, as is their custom, turned down the offer, saying Mr. and Mrs. Speltz had the ability to pay the full balance, over time.

    Mr. Speltz went to Tax Court. He argued that the IRS “@bused its discretion” by refusing his offer. An attorney who has been fighting for other telecom ISO AMT victims joined the case.

    Tax Court Judge Cohen yesterday said her hands were tied. Tax Court judges can’t overturn a tax assessment just because the tax law is unfa1r.”

    BTW, with the downturn and the collapse of so much stock purchased with ISOs, expect this scenario to be repeated many times over.

    If the resident board l1berals have a way to convince folks like the Speltz’ that their tax burden is fair, I am sure that they would like to hear it.

  11. Sean says:

    John, thanks for reminding me that I did not get the sales tax deduction for my new hybrid car either due to AMT.

    Next thing you know I won’t qualify for the new $8k Home Buyer Tax Credit if I buy a home this year because of I made too much money.

  12. comrade nom deplume says:

    10 in mod. Tried to doctor it but to no avail.

  13. BC Bob says:

    “Historically, home prices lag, they don’t lead.”

    JB,

    Double whammy this cycle. It led and will now lag. That’s why this will be the crown jewel of RE busts.

  14. 2 Cents says:

    Bi (6)-
    “how much do you need to live “comfortably”? assuming you are debt free”

    A few thousand units of SRS and SKF.

  15. Punch My Ticket says:

    One man’s “comfortably” is another’s “shockingly deprived”.

  16. Sastry says:

    Sean #10…

    We also do not qualify [just by a whisker], and there is a realistic chance (clot will probably disagree) that we will buy a house this year. I try to look at is as glass half-full — that we make enough that we do not qualify for it.

    I think it’s better not to worry about 8k when a good deal can net close to 20% off [could be 100k difference?]. May be just a difference in perspective?

    S

  17. Shore Guy says:

    “#3 – When all you know is bubbles, the only thing you can do when faced with a crisis is blow more bubbles.”

    Are you saying Geithner blows?

  18. Shore Guy says:

    Sean,

    You will find Sastry is full of ideas of how you should manage your money and why money you lose due to government action is no big deal and you should feel honored to turn it over to the USG.

  19. Shore Guy says:

    178 on the other thread is for you, Sastry. I am on the road and unable to cut and paste it here.

  20. bi says:

    14#, i know. i am trying to figure out average net worth for the current retirees.
    i would say fow now you could maintain middle class life style if you have $5K monthly income after retirement.

    >Punch My Ticket says:
    April 14, 2009 at 3:23 pm
    One man’s “comfortably” is another’s “shockingly deprived”.

  21. John says:

    I think another 15% will be close to bottom only if we stablize jobs and people start getting raises. Last time housing stagnated in 1993-1997 home prices became more affordable without dropping in prices as incomes were rising, with many employers giving zero percent raises houses can’t stagnate their way to affordability. They need to fall in price. The other issues is unlike 1992-1997 RE taxes are going straight up and now insurers are having financial issues which means they will raise rates in 2010. Anyone who has a mortgage will see principal, interest, RE taxes and insurance is the payment. Housing is based on affordability of all four. If jumbo rates are still high and RE taxes and insurance are going up home prices will go down.

  22. SG says:

    The price is right – IRWIN KELLNER Says so

    From a seller’s perspective, homes that are priced realistically are likely to sell the quickest. This means an asking price at least 30% lower than peak levels. As much as this might hurt, most houses will still sell for more than they did back in 2000.

  23. Sastry says:

    Shore #17… This will be my last post addressing you, so you can have the last word. As I said, you can respond, insult, whatever, and you can be assured that I will not address you.

    At your age (seems like you are close to retirement), obsessing too much about more money is probably not the best thing to do with life. Who knows, may be I will grow to be a rich, bitter person, and go around telling everyone around that they don’t have as much money as I do.

    Shore, I also am willing to bet that you were fine with government money gifted to contractors that were killing innocent Iraqis.

    S

  24. Shore Guy says:

    “I would say fow now you could maintain middle class life style if you have $5K monthly income after retirement.”

    Not if your property taxes are $15,000 a year.

  25. BC Bob says:

    “i would say fow now you could maintain middle class life style if you have $5K monthly income after retirement.”

    Only if this is your food for the day;

    http://blog.whathappensnow.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/03/dog-food.JPG

  26. John says:

    5K after taxes maybe, 5K before taxes no way.

    15K taxes not so bad if no mortage and you are still physically active enough do home repairs and lawn work, otherwise goodbye house hello cardboard box.

  27. John says:

    “innocent Iraqis” is that like “baked Alaska”?

  28. RentinginNJ says:

    “how much do you need to live “comfortably”? assuming you are debt free”

    Probably north of $1 million in savings (taxes already paid), assuming no other income (social security, pension, etc.). If you retiree at 65, this would allow you to draw $50k for 20 years assuming you continue to earn some modest interest and give yourself a small cost of living raise each year. Of course, NJ property taxe increases could make this rough.

  29. chicagofinance says:

    zieba says:
    April 14, 2009 at 2:39 pm
    Sastry, Give it up already, or take it off line.
    Let’s all focus on the real evil here: ChiFi’s love of DM.

    pick any song….all 13 here…will launch a media player
    http://www.dhnet.be/dm/

  30. Shore Guy says:

    Sastry,

    Would that I were close to retirement. Just a reminder, I do notassert that I have more money than others. I am certain that there are legions of people here with greater net worth and greater income than we have. And, unlike you, that does not bother me in the least; I do not compare myself to anyone else with respect to income.

    Your statement that, “hore, I also am willing to bet that you were fine with government money gifted to contractors that were killing innocent Iraqis” is so illogical as to make any thinking person’s head spin. Clearly, you have no understanding of my politics.

    Also, your repeated statements that I should not worry so much about money strikes me as you projecting your own worry/envy onto another.

    You would do well to worry about your own failings before seeking to point out mine. I also suggest that before you characterize another’s politics that you at least mke an effort to ascertain what they are.

  31. zieba says:

    people live off of 5K before taxes in a 100 mile radius of the rotten apple?

  32. chicagofinance says:

    chicagofinance says:
    April 14, 2009 at 3:48 pm
    zieba says:
    April 14, 2009 at 2:39 pm
    Sastry, Give it up already, or take it off line.
    Let’s all focus on the real evil here: ChiFi’s love of DM.

    Best part is that the Unisphere is in the background. Flushing Queens – yes, I am all for it.

  33. Shore Guy says:

    “Who knows, may be I will grow to be a rich, bitter person,”

    You seem to have the bitter part down.

  34. Punch My Ticket says:

    i am trying to figure out average net worth for the current retirees.

    Median net worth ex home equity for retirees in this country is essentially zero.

    i would say fow now you could maintain middle class life style if you have $5K monthly income after retirement.

    It’s all over the place. I know people who are apparently comfortable on less than $30000/year. I know others who won’t stop whining even though they make more than ten times that.

    There are two ways to get enough: one is to continue to accumulate more and more. The other is to desire less. – G. K. Chesterton

  35. chicagofinance says:

    Batting .167, Milledge sent to minorsComment Email Print Share Associated Press
    WASHINGTON — Nationals center fielder Lastings Milledge has been optioned to Triple-A Syracuse.

    Milledge is batting .167 with no extra-base hits, one RBI, one walk and 10 strikeouts this season. He has been hitting in the leadoff spot.

    Washington is 0-7, the only team in the major leagues without a victory.

    The Nationals did not immediately announce who will replace Milledge on the active roster. They were off Tuesday and scheduled to host Philadelphia on Wednesday.

  36. Sastry says:

    Keith… just to clarify [no need for me to ramble on after this post…]

    I think that upward mobility of wealth will unfairly advantage a child whose parents pay for college than a kid that works in a farm. Adequate government funding should be ensured to provide a poor kid in the farm with the same opportunity as a semi-rich kid in the city.

    This is the case with US currently (rather, I think it can move even further towards that direction). If the government spending gets cut drastically towards things like education, welfare, etc., everyone will eventually lose.

    S

  37. HEHEHE says:

    I repeat the market topped Friday.

  38. Silera says:

    “zieba says:
    people live off of 5K before taxes in a 100 mile radius of the rotten apple?”

    Raises hand awkwardly. I don’t think I’d call it ideal, but it is almost possible. Apparently 60-70 is middle class around here.

  39. 2 Cents says:

    “I repeat the market topped Friday.”

    HE (36)-
    From your lips to Goldman’s ears :).

  40. HEHEHE says:

    Layoffs Watch ’09: JPMorgan
    Posted by Bess Levin, Apr 14, 2009, 3:45pm
    From the front lines: “JPM is breaking up F.A.S.T. MDs & EDs bearing the brunt of the layoffs while most VPs and below are being placed elsewhere in the bank.”

    http://dealbreaker.com/2009/04/layoffs-watch-09-jpmorgan.php

  41. SG says:

    Our real estate price obsession

    And just like sports aficionados who keep a daily count of the number of goals and assists hockey players such as Jarome Iginla tally, homeowners and potential buyers are well aware of what the prices of single-family homes and condominiums are doing on a daily basis, particularly in the local real estate market.

  42. grim says:

    #41 – And this is exactly the reason we are *NOT* at the bottom.

  43. HEHEHE says:

    Layoffs Watch ’09: BarCap
    Posted by Bess Levin, Apr 14, 2009, 3:16pm
    Cuts are said to be going down in commodities circa now. Parting gifts are two weeks for “new” analysts and and associates (split pretty evenly among legacy Barclettes and former Lehmans). Unfortunately, BarCap blocked this here website a few weeks back, so we won’t be able to get the play-by-play from onlookers, but if you were unfortunately among those sent home sent home (forever) and have more info to share, get in touch.

    http://dealbreaker.com/2009/04/layoffs-watch-09-barcap.php

  44. make money says:

    I repeat the market topped Friday

    He,

    I certainly hope so. I bought a pile of SRS and SKF last week. I had to sell some Shiny to do so. So far it looks like a good decision.

    I’ll go back to shiny after i triple my money.

    Next month?

  45. zieba says:

    Chi,

    You’ll be pleased to know my small business, staff of four, is being treated to “In Chains” being punched out by a Klipsch THX system.

    It ain’t half bad.

  46. grim says:

    HEHEHE,

    And I half thought, for a minute there, that we might be done with cuts in the financials…

    So much for being positive.

  47. SG says:

    CNBC

    Yes, You Can Afford A House

    Washington DC? You are now going to pay 25 percent of your income on your home. That’s down from 53 percent at the end of 2005.

    In Nashville you will now pay 22 percent of your income, down from 31 percent in 2007, and in Philadelphia you will now pay 28 percent of your income, down from 36 percent.

    Now for my fave: in Los Angeles you will now pay 45 percent of your income on a home. That’s a lot right. Well at the peak of the market, in August 2007, you were paying 102 percent, yup, more than your income, on your home.

    So for those of you sitting out there on the fence, waiting for prices to be ever-so-favorable, open your eyes! Prices may fall more, but you’re already in a pretty good place. Historically, a 31 percent debt-to-income ratio on your mortgage was considered fiscally healthy.

  48. d2b says:

    Bi:
    I would go with a million. I could retire in my forties with that if I didn’t have kids. I’m in PA and our property taxes are $3500 for a POS split level and the mortgage would be paid off. I would probably sell it anyway because owning a house is a pain in the ass.

    My retirement is going to be a second career with a meaningless job that gets me out of the house. It works for my father. I would be the perfect Wal Mart greeter if I didn’t hate that shithole so much.

  49. d2b says:

    The happiest people I know own small houses or rent.

  50. make money says:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=snbA1liX1jE

    Does anyone here think that we are all addicted to pessimism p@rn?

    ABC has accused Schiff of spreading pesimism p@rn.

    Reaaly cool stuf.

  51. bi says:

    27#,
    $5K monthly income seems not sufficient. how about $5K regular expense after income tax and property tax?
    now adding roughly 10K property tax (median for now) and 20% of income tax bucket for this income level, you need about about $85K income each year pre-tax.

    if you have $2m and if you can get average 3% interest income, you will have $60K intrest income and can draw 25K from your base.

    Now I conclude my thesis: $2M in the bank is kind of the money you need to retire.

  52. John says:

    One million? Huh, what? If you had a million in your retirement account you have to pay taxes when you withdrawl plus cover your own health insurance and you would be too young for SS, you would blow through that in five to ten years. You should be socking away at least 2K a month in retirement in your 40’s and at least 1K a month in the college fund, plus 2K a month savings.

  53. HEHEHE says:

    Grim,

    I think there’s many more to come.

  54. grim says:

    Does anyone here think that we are all addicted to pessimism p@rn?

    Plenty of addicts here.

  55. John says:

    two million, what? I need 5K a month to pay for my low class used car no vacation lifestyle, but to get 5K I would have to draw down 90K a year. But wait I need 1K a month medial if I was on my own

    Wait forget about it, college tuition for young kids considering inflation will be like 400K each, three kids 1.2 million, to get 1.2 million will have to liquidate two million which will give me a enough to pay for college and a case of bud.

  56. bi says:

    57#, john, i assume no mortgage and after tuition for kids. by the way, how much premium for medicare?

  57. zieba says:

    See gang, this is why John has a big lawn.

  58. Punch My Ticket says:

    Did you get laid off today, bi?

  59. bi says:

    60#, not yet. i am thinking how many years i have to work before hitting the magic number.

  60. SG says:

    All this talk about 1 million is foolish. Most working for last 22 years, has really nothing close to that in their retirement account.

    If you put max allowed amount in 401K since 1987, you would have put $231K.

    on 12/07: 401K would have been worth $465K

    Today: It would be worth only $265K. If invested in S&P 500 companies.

  61. Clotpoll says:

    zieba (59)-

    I thought it was because of his Mexican fertilizer.

  62. BC Bob says:

    Suppose they threw a party and nobody showed up? Come to think of it, we are getting close to John’s Mem Day Recovery party.

    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/30211915

  63. Clotpoll says:

    bi (61)-

    Don’t forget to account for the fact that your average time to shine a pair of shoes will rise as your arms and hands slow down.

  64. grim says:

    Suppose they threw a party and nobody showed up? Come to think of it, we are getting close to John’s Mem Day Recovery party.

    Photographer mislabeled the shot. That line was for the Macy’s Easter sale this past weekend, not the job fair.

  65. Clotpoll says:

    BC (64)-

    This phase of the meltdown seems to me like back in the day when people who didn’t know any better would stand outside and stare at nuclear bomb tests.

  66. Punch My Ticket says:

    bi, don’t let it get you down. There’s always Paraguay, Thailand, Mozambique. They’re cheap. You could be a big man there with way less than a million.

  67. Clotpoll says:

    Punch (68)-

    Don’t forget Chile. If I move there, you can count on me leading the charge of neo-Pinochet types.

    Clotpoll, si!

    Jungle capitalism…that’s the ticket!

  68. grim says:

    All this talk about 1 million is foolish. Most working for last 22 years, has really nothing close to that in their retirement account.

    If you put max allowed amount in 401K since 1987, you would have put $231K.

    Not sure I follow. Are you trying to say that the only vehicle that can be used to save for retirement is the 401k?

    In addition to 401k contributions I max out my IRA each year. And even this is aside from the “long-term” investment portfolio.

  69. Sastry says:

    53# Bi:

    “Now I conclude my thesis: $2M in the bank is kind of the money you need to retire.” [based on 60K interest income and 25K drawing from base]

    There will be some money from Social Security too — I think more if both partners accumulated enough credits.

    Setting aside medical expenses [with more generics hitting the market in the next 10 to 20 years, I’d think medical expenses will go lower…].

    The required income basically depends on lifestyle choices, which can vary widely. There was this interesting book I read a long time ago: “Get a Life: You Don’t Need a Million to Retire Well” by Ralph Warner [probably we need to adjust it for inflation, and for NY/NJ living costs!]

    S

  70. HEHEHE says:

    BlackRock Confirms Goldman Q1 Profit Was Non-Recurring And A Result Of AIG Unwinds

    Posted by Tyler Durden at 3:29 PM
    This is kinda a huge deal… Peter Fisher, managing director of BlackRock (yes, that BlackRock), states in a Bloomberg interview that Goldman’s first quarter trading profit is non-recurring in nature, and believes it was mostly due to AIG unwinds… It is a little shocking that BlackRock would have anything bad to say about the phenomenal resurrection of financial companies, and puts the huge “profit” in it’s true light. After all PIMROCK are the direct beneficiaries of the perpetuating delusion that all is well with the banking system, so it is odd that a BlackRock professional would dare to go against the grain on this one.

    http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/04/blackrock-confirms-goldman-q1-profit.html

  71. BC Bob says:

    “There will be some money from Social Security too”

    Sastry,

    From whom? Santa Claus?

  72. chicagofinance says:

    zieba says:
    April 14, 2009 at 4:38 pm
    See gang, this is why John has a big lawn.

    zieba: Thanks for reminding me that I need a to get a haircut…..

  73. Sastry says:

    #SG 62…

    “If you put max allowed amount in 401K since 1987, you would have put $231K.”

    There is employer contribution part that can push the limit way up, right? Also, if it is a two income family, it can easily go up.

    A couple of folks that I know were very close to retiring — now the fall in markets means they keep working for a few years more [and if markets go up fast, big IF, they’ll have even more retirement income].

    The general rule also is that with time one moves more towards bonds, so the assumption of S&P companies is not often the case.

    And, as Grim said, there are other avenues for retirement savings too.

    Also, if we like what we do for a living, the retirement can be deferred and be gradual…

  74. make money says:

    After all PIMROCK are the direct beneficiaries of the perpetuating delusion that all is well with the banking system, so it is odd that a BlackRock professional would dare to go against the grain on this one.

    HeHe,

    He sits where he stands.

  75. RayC says:

    The best retirement plan – have a desk job, eat a bacon egg and cheese every day for breakfast, don’t exercise, and I guarantee you will never need to save for retirement.

  76. grim says:

    The required income basically depends on lifestyle choices, which can vary widely. There was this interesting book I read a long time ago: “Get a Life: You Don’t Need a Million to Retire Well” by Ralph Warner [probably we need to adjust it for inflation, and for NY/NJ living costs!]

    Maybe you won’t, but that sure as hell isn’t a reason to not try to get there. I shudder in fear when I think about the thousands who may have read something like this and are now using it as an excuse not to save for retirement. Who knows, I haven’t read it, I might be full of cr*p.

    Or does Chapter 1 start out:

    Choosing Retirement Hobbies

    1) Smoking

  77. John says:

    I save like most of us lower upper class folk, I live off one paycheck and save the other one. In a single income household you are saving for two retirements plus you don’t want to be the Dad who can’t help his kids or grandkids at all. Nothing more depressing than hitting up your snot nosed son-in-law for cash when you are 80 cause you are broke.

  78. grim says:

    #77 – Beat me to it

  79. Shore Guy says:

    “pessimism p@rn”

    Is that with naked people who are all on antidepressants?

  80. RayC says:

    #80 grim – hopefully our bodies are healthier than our minds.

  81. grim says:

    Small car (and disaster porn) aficionados:

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/30209086

    The IIHS collision caused the Smart Fortwo to become airborne and turn around 450 degrees.

    The Smart Fortwo vs. Mercedes C class collision is horrific.

  82. chicagofinance says:

    RayC says:
    April 14, 2009 at 4:59 pm
    The best retirement plan – have a desk job, eat a bacon egg and cheese every day for breakfast, don’t exercise, and I guarantee you will never need to save for retirement.

    RayC: Pure genius….high quality…

  83. Sastry says:

    #78… with rising taxes on cigarettes, it may be a very close race. It’s something about downsizing homes, gardening type hobbies, etc. More focused towards “get a life” part than on the “don’t need a million” part.

    If W8TING is reading, I always meant to say that what he’s doing for his parents is a wonderful thing. I will teach those qualities to my kid! :)

    [kidding though, I was able to buy a house for my folks — having a supporting spouse is a blessing].

  84. Shore Guy says:

    As for retirement, I know someone who has said that when he retires, if his money runs out, he will turn to bank robbery. That way he wins no matter what. Either he gets money, with which he can house and feed himself, or he will get caught at which point the government will feed and house him.

  85. John says:

    Actually, eggs and bacon are protein and cheese is calicum. That is actually good for you and has less calories than a low fat muffin. Also lack of exercise and poor eating habits usually does not shorten life it just makes for a much lower quality of life in old age. Which actually raises expenses.

  86. Shore Guy says:

    “I always meant to say that what he’s doing for his parents is a wonderful thing. I will teach those qualities to my kid!”

    Good plan, let your child buy a house for you. Too funny.

  87. Sean says:

    “Now I conclude my thesis: $2M in the bank is kind of the money you need to retire.”

    2 mil is all I need then I can retire?

    Humm, I have decided to become a pirate and will be launching my attacks on the Saudi Tankers as they enter Upper New York Bay, no need to go all the way to Africa. Since I don’t have a skiff and a grappling hook, I will swing down from the Varrazano Bridge take the crew hostage and will wait for my ransom of $3 million to be delivered by Helicopter.

    If that plan worked for those guys off of the coast of Somalia it can work for me too. Who is in?

    http://cache.daylife.com/imageserve/0dSAdcY3qm9gB/610x.jpg

  88. gary says:

    Home prices in the New York City metropolitan area will fall as much as 15 percent as Wall Street firms cut jobs and slash bonuses, according to Kenneth Rosen, an economist at the University of California, Berkeley.

    Is this 15% from peak or 15% on top of the 5% that fell since the peak?

    By the way, I was at that job fair two months ago –> http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/30211915

    It was sponsored by an online tech job link and there were 5 companies total that showed up. People were pissed* as hell* and you couldn’t move 5 minutes after the doors opened. What a f*cking sham it was.

  89. Shore Guy says:

    Grim,

    I have seen thos things on the road and they always strike me as a very bad idea. Looking at that video only confirms my worst fears.

  90. Doyle says:

    I just butter my cigarettes… two for one.

  91. Shore Guy says:

    Gary,

    How goes the search?

  92. chicagofinance says:

    zieba says:
    April 14, 2009 at 4:21 pm
    Chi, You’ll be pleased to know my small business, staff of four, is being treated to “In Chains” being punched out by a Klipsch THX system. It ain’t half bad.

    zieba:
    #1 it cracks me up that these guys generally have to put some kind of practical joke at the beginning of the album….
    #2 it is a striking album in its consistency; you may or may not appreciate it, but there is very little throwaway stuff
    #3 current favs: Wrong, Fragile Tension; In Sympathy; Peace; Miles Away; Corrupt…….I think Corrupt is the best one….

  93. Shore Guy says:

    Are they the 101 guys?

  94. Shore Guy says:

    Speaking of pirates, Grim, didn’t you do a pirate post day awhile back?

  95. gary says:

    Shore Guy,

    The search is horrible, I wish I could say otherwise. It’s absolutely dismal. I’m spending all day online, on the phone, sending resumes everywhere and anywhere. It’s really bad.

  96. chicagofinance says:

    Shore Guy says:
    April 14, 2009 at 5:12 pm
    Are they the 101 guys?

    Yeah, but that was 21 years ago :p

  97. make money says:

    John,

    Were have you been? I missed your posts and your positions on long bonds and short common was spot on.

    Without you this board is not the same.

  98. RayC says:

    Thank you chicagofinance, I try. Now I better go home and exercise, cause I don’t feel like saving.

  99. RayC says:

    forget it, I’m just gonna buy a Yaris.

  100. jim says:

    Our retirement plan is to be mainly in Germany and go back and forth to NJ. We aren’t close to retirement but do have both houses up and running. This week the fence is being installed around our place in NJ. Our main problem would be if airline tickets get too expensive. Like Shore, we aren’t wealthy but have saved a lot and been very lucky in a lot of financial situations.

  101. Shore Guy says:

    And, speaking of the Horn of Africa and wider threats:

    http://foxforum.blogs.foxnews.com/2009/04/14/mcfarland_obama_pirates/

  102. Shore Guy says:

    Gary,

    A buddy of mine is in industrial sales and has been out for well over a year. This Spring might be two years. I wish you well, it is a heck of a time to be looking. Have you given any thought to a safety job, just for some income and insurance? Something like Fri., Sat., Sun., perhaps?

  103. Sg says:

    The point above on retirement savings is probably applicable to 90 percent population. Yes there will be 10 percent who may not face that situation. If depression lasts for next 10 years, most will be in trouble.

    Most don’t save for retirement outside of 401k. They save for boats, cars and bigger homes.

    Most investor fail at timing the market.

    For many two income doesn’t last life time, esp with kids. Thought I guess 2 income may give extra saving.

  104. grim says:

    Is this 15% from peak or 15% on top of the 5% that fell since the peak?

    Gary,

    Huh? We’re well past 5% from peak.

    http://njrereport.com/index.php/2009/04/01/new-jersey-home-price-tracker-2/

    S&P Case Shiller NY Metro Commutable Area Home Price Index

    Low Tier (Under $308k) – Peaked in October 2006 and is down 18.07% from peak

    Mid Tier ($308k-$457k) – Peaked in September 2006 and is down 16.80% from peak

    High Tier (Over $457k) – Peaked in June 2006 and is down 12.92% from peak

    Aggregate (Overall Market) – Peaked in June 2006 and is down 16.01% from peak

    Condo-Only Index – Peaked in February 2006 and is down 7.92% from peak

    Q4 OFHEO Home Price Index & Purchase-Only Index

    HPI – Peaked in Q1 2007 and is down 6.26% from peak (Includes Refi)

    Purchase Only – Peaked in Q2 2006 and is down 9.26% from peak

    Q4 NJAR Median Price

    Median Sale Price – Peaked in Q2 2006 and is down 13.72% from peak

  105. gary says:

    grim [106],

    There was some sarcasm* in my post regarding the 5% because from what I see in current listing prices, I don’t see much of a difference from peak. Unless, the powers that be are somehow trying to manipulate and swindle the masses without them knowing it.

  106. gary says:

    Shore [97],

    Absolutely, I’ll try anything; what do you suggest?

  107. Shore Guy says:

    Gary,

    Where do you live?

  108. grim says:

    Who the f*ck cares about list prices?

    2009 Q1 NJMLS Bergen County
    Sale Price/List Price Ratio (SFH/Condo/Coop)

    86.628%

    2009 March NJMLS Bergen County
    Sale Price/List Price Ratio (SFH/Condo/Coop)

    86.602%

    The average house in Bergen County is selling for 13% off the list price.

  109. grim says:

    (continued)

    2009 March NJMLS Bergen County
    Average Sale/Average List(SFH/Condo/Coop)

    $488,779/$564,399

  110. grim says:

    AND THIS IS CALCULATED OFF THE LAST LIST PRICE NOT THE ORIGINAL

    GARY

    F*CK LIST PRICES ALREADY

    THEY MEAN NOTHING

  111. Shore Guy says:

    Gary,

    Feel free to get my e-mail from Grim.

  112. grim says:

    The average house in Bergen County is selling for 13% off the list price.

    Making an offer 13% off asking isn’t a lowball, it is a GIFT.

  113. Shore Guy says:

    Grim,

    You are as riled-up about list prices as I am about taxes, it seems.

  114. HEHEHE says:

    Merrill Let Loose On The Quant Scent

    Posted by Tyler Durden at 5:12 PM
    In a report released yesterday, it is somewhat gratifying that Merrill Lynch analyst Mary Ann Bartels agrees with Zero Hedge conclusions about possible near-term market volatility events as a result of quant fund deleveraging.

    http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/04/merrill-set-loose-on-quant-scent.html

    Friday was the peak

  115. grim says:

    Even looking at single family homes in the ultra-haughty “600 Locale” on NJMLS, the spread is the same (actually worse, but the difference is tiny)

    86.399%

    (Allendale, Franklin Lakes, Glen Rock, Ho Ho Kus, Mahwah, Midland Park, Oakland, Ramsey, Ridgewood, Saddle River, Upper Saddle River, Waldwick, Wyckoff)

  116. gary says:

    grim,

    We need to discuss this further over a few beers!! :)

  117. gary says:

    Shore [113],

    Thank you!

  118. JBJB says:

    Grim

    Any chance you or anyone else can provide similar 2009 LP:SP rations for Monmouth?

  119. Shore Guy says:

    Gary,

    I am actually logged in there now. So feel free to contact me.

  120. chicagofinance says:

    grim says:
    April 14, 2009 at 5:47 pm
    Even looking at single family homes in the UltraHaughty 600Locale

    grim: is that a new leveraged ETF?

  121. reinvestor101 says:

    There is in fact a twisted fixation and addiction with pessism and cheapness here akin to those addicted to adult films. Everyday, there’s a gleeful shout as some watch investors and homeowners get brutally screwed out of their money. You people want to see people in a damn dungeon tied up and in pain under the lash. These were the people who tried to help the economy.

    After seeing people abused like this, then you turn around a celebrate cheapness. This youngster, Stu, talks about going on vacation and not paying a damn red cent and everyone heaps praise on him. This youngster is not doing a damn thing to help the economy or his fellow Americans, yet he praised while those who have helped get brutally screwed while everyone sits around and watches.

    Where’s the justice in that?

    make money says:
    April 14, 2009 at 4:31 pm
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=snbA1liX1jE

    Does anyone here think that we are all addicted to pessimism p@rn?

    ABC has accused Schiff of spreading pesimism p@rn.

    Reaaly cool stuf.

  122. Shore Guy says:

    “You people want to see people in a damn dungeon tied up and in pain under the lash.”

    Sounds like my college roommate’s girlfriend.

  123. Pat says:

    I just want to see an act where a guy has his azz in a sling and does a swan dive into hell wearing gasoline boxers.

    Then, I’m goin out and buyin me a HOUSE!

    Naw, maybe I’ll just keep renting and go to Disneyland.

  124. Sastry says:

    Homeland Security Report Warns Of Rising Right-Wing Extremism

    “(a report) warned that home foreclosures, unemployment and other consequences of the economic recession ‘could create a fertile recruiting environment for right-wing extremists'”

    Poetic justice? I have mixed feelings. Fortunately, O is too classy to exploit this angle.

  125. safeashouses says:

    #34 chicagofinance says:
    April 14, 2009 at 3:54 pm

    Batting .167, Milledge sent to minorsComment Email Print Share Associated Press
    WASHINGTON — Nationals center fielder Lastings Milledge has been optioned to Triple-A Syracuse.

    Milledge is batting .167 with no extra-base hits, one RBI, one walk and 10 strikeouts this season. He has been hitting in the leadoff spot.

    Washington is 0-7, the only team in the major leagues without a victory.

    The Nationals did not immediately announce who will replace Milledge on the active roster. They were off Tuesday and scheduled to host Philadelphia on Wednesday.

    They should make him work at the Fed or Tres. He got at least 1 hit and I bet made a lot fewer errors than Timmay and Bergabe.

  126. imkeithhernandez says:

    sastry… give it a rest

    you’re the left wing jamil w/the incessant political angle on everything

    i imagine the current environment is fertile recruiting ground for all the loons… both on the left and right

  127. House Whine says:

    Regarding retirement – you can live cheaply in NJ when you retire if you are willing to rent a small apt. and not be surrounded by lots of things that need to be repaired and taken care of. There are also so many free activities ( at least I know there are in central NJ) around and volunteer work that you could be busy every day of the week. And, if one has built up a decent social network you are rich beyond what is in your bank account.
    Of course, that assumes your health is o.k. I know quite a few very happy retired NJ folks who sure don’t have anywhere near a million – just a small pension and s.s.

  128. Hubba says:

    Wow, looks like the collectivists were out in full force today. Something big must be brewing.

  129. grim says:

    Regarding retirement – you can live cheaply in NJ when you retire if you are willing to rent a small apt. and not be surrounded by lots of things that need to be repaired and taken care of.

    How to retire in NJ … sell your house?

    You might be on to something.

  130. Sastry says:

    Grim, is it very unusual to scale down in terms of home after retirement? I’d second what House Whine says…

    I know a fairly elderly (80+) lady here that rents an apt. Her husband and she moved to Florida and then she came back here after he passed away — they sold off their house a while ago.

    She manages well, drives on her own, reads a lot, seems very happy, and she is very friendly. She has a bunch of nephews and nieces, in addition to her kids visiting her.

    S

  131. Shore Guy says:

    “. I know quite a few very happy retired NJ folks who sure don’t have anywhere near a million – just a small pension and s.s”

    HW,

    The problem is that to generate a “small pension” actually takes a fairly-large investment. Since none of us under 50 are likley to receive SS and none of us outside public employment are likely to receive a traditional pension, we NEED to save the cash to allow us to draw “a small pension.”

  132. grim says:

    Grim, is it very unusual to scale down in terms of home after retirement? I’d second what House Whine says…

    If this becomes commonplace, or worse, a prerequisite for boomer retirement, what happens to demand for homes? What happens to prices of homes?

    The housing market will be hard pressed to stage any kind of recovery in that environment.

  133. House Whine says:

    Shore Guy,

    You are right I guess about the pension situation. Maybe it’s just wishful thinking on my part but I can’t imagine that SS will really be nonexistent for the generations that follow. Is that the issue that they call the “third rail of politics”? I don’t even know what that means but it doesn’t sound good to me.

  134. grim says:

    From the Journal of the American Planning Association:

    Aging Baby Boomers and the Generational Housing Bubble: Foresight and Mitigation of an Epic Transition
    Dowell Myers, SungHo Ryu

    Problem: The 78 million baby boomers
    have driven up housing demand and prices
    for three decades since beginning to buy
    homes in 1970 and continuing up the housing
    ladder. What will happen when boomers
    begin to sell off their high-priced homes to
    relatively smaller and less-advantaged
    generations?

  135. grim says:

    #138 is a *MUST READ* for anything thinking about long-term homeownership in NJ.

    The period of 2016 thru 2020 will mark the beginning of the end of the Generational Housing Bubble in New Jersey. At that point, the state will begin to experience a net excess of sellers due to boomer retirement.

    The start of this window is only 7 years away.

    Myers and Ryu expect this correction to take place over a 20 year period.

    Is buying a home a losing play, period?

  136. GerryAdams says:

    Sean,

    I can’t let your post from today in the other thread go without responding.

    First, I have read the 2008 School funding reform Act from beginning to end. Nowhere does it imply that school districts cannot lower school taxes. If you can find that section in the law, please point out the page, paragraph, and section.

    http://www.njleg.state.nj.us/2006/Bills/A0500/500_I2.PDF

    School districts have been limited to an increase that depends on the student population for several years, and in fact the law demands that budgets decrease when the student population decreases. As for the example of poor old Lake Como… Lake Como is one of those school districts that only NJ could have – it does not even have a single school! They are in a sending/receiving relationship with Belmar K-8 and some perplexing relation with other HS schools for 9-12 students. If you want to save tax dollars, start by combining the townships by the ocean and regionalizing school districts.

    To quote Sean: “For example after the School board of Lake Cuomo submitted their budget with a modest 16k budget cut proposal for approval to the State, it was quickly rejected..”

    As I understand it, a budget must be approved at the county level, and Lake Como’s budget must have been sent back. Maybe their budget was a typewritten and scanned in like their board notes. I would like to read about a real school district with actual schools that have had their budget rejected at the county level because they dared to lower their taxes.

    There should be Tea Party is favor of dissolving towns like Lake Como. But protesting against the granting of state funds to poor schools is a lost cause – See Abbott v Burke, rulings 1 through 20 or more. That fight is over. The School Funding Reform Act was meant to send less money to the Abbotts and more to affluent/middle class ones, within the confides of the rulings.

    Rant over.

  137. stan says:

    John adds a little extra something to the blog.

    Sastry u need to lighten up a bit,

  138. BC Bob says:

    “Is buying a home a losing play, period?”

    JB,

    Going forward, yes. 2005/2006 prices are the blow off top.

  139. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    (139) Grim

    Yes. In fact I expect it to decimate large swaths of the Northeast and rust belt.

    I expected the current fiscal meltdown to have coincided with that event. But it happened far too early.

  140. Cindy says:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/15/business/economy/15bailout.html?hp

    US Planning to Reveal Data on Health of Top Banks

    Oh bother – make up your minds already.

  141. Cindy says:

    Goldman announces the offering of $5B on Monday – they are at $123. – now they are at…???$115. They are less than candid about their Q1 earnings of $3.39 a share…..(mystery month.) So…is that what you call a pump and dump?

  142. Sean says:

    GerryAdams – May be some political spin in the story but I plucked the info and posted it here with the goal of getting Comrade and others riled up enough to attend the Tax Tea Party and even perhaps end up on TV or in the clink.

    The change to the budget process mentioned however is correct. Under the old law when voters reject a school budget it goes to the municipal governing body for review. They then determine whether to reduce the budget and make recommendations for staffing and other budget cuts. The school board then must live within the budget.

    However NOW, under the School Funding Reform Act of 2008, some budgets cannot be cut, even if rejected by voters and the local municipal governing body. The act identifies two key numbers per district — “adequacy,” the cost of providing a thorough education, and “fair share,” the amount of property taxes that must be raised to fund the schools.

    School budgets defeated by voters that are determined by the State that spending below is adequacy and the Municipal taxing is below their fair share, and the budget cannot then be reduced and can be raised based upon the states new formulas.

    Here is where you can find the original story on little old Lake Cuomo.

    http://www.politickernj.com/tfantini/28955/rible-angelini-corzine-administration-has-outlawed-school-boards

    FYI, the State will be cutting funding after this years budget increase and it will be up to the taxpayers to make up the difference according to the adequacy and fair share requirements created by the State.

    First the State takes away power from the voters and then sticks them with the bill.

    Moral of this story is to move to a town with declining enrollment, as GerryAdams stated there needs to be less kids in the schools to cut spending.

  143. Shore Guy says:

    Record profits at the banks. Humm, perfect reason to pay back TARP and allow those bonuses to flow.

  144. d2b says:

    I have to say that I hate the NBA because of players like Stephon Marbury.

  145. firestormik says:

    firestormik says:
    April 14, 2009 at 9:55 pm
    Sastry says:
    “What you say is 100% true. I think one of the founders said, “I study war and engineering, so that my kids can study medicine and sciences, so that their kids can study pottery”… There is a reason why Indians come to US and not the other way round”

    Just from my experience.
    I’ve rarely met\spoken with a really knowledgeable Indian. Most of you guys say “will do” (with the head shaken side to side) but never do. So whatever you said about your education is NOT TRUE

  146. Shore Guy says:

    d2b,

    I gave up on the NBA before Bird and Jordan, and have never missed it. Heck, I seldom watch a NFL game anymore. The TV hype is too much; I now prefer to listen while doing other things.

  147. chicagofinance says:

    Cindy says:
    April 14, 2009 at 10:10 pm
    Goldman announces the offering of $5B on Monday – they are at $123. – now they are at…???$115. They are less than candid about their Q1 earnings of $3.39 a share…..(mystery month.) So…is that what you call a pump and dump?

    Cindy: I think it is known as a “Bob Toll”.

  148. yikes says:

    late to the tax argument game … but re: tax structure:

    if you make 300k, are you taxed the same way as someone who made 700K?

    What about 300k and someone who made $3 million?

  149. Shore Guy says:

    Lake Como,

    Ahhh, memories of Mary’s Husband’s Pub, Bar A, etc. It was an interesting place to live back when, and when it was So. Belmar. The whole H.S. thing was interesting, sending to both ‘Squan and AP. Those who went K-8 at Belmar Elem. were allowed to select the high school they wanted to go to — humm, Manasquan or Asbury, hummm, tough choice. Those who did not attend fro K on got assigned, and those who got assigned to AP and had means went to St. Rose instead.

  150. sastry says:

    #149…
    “Just from my experience.
    I’ve rarely met\spoken with a really knowledgeable Indian. Most of you guys say “will do” (with the head shaken side to side) but never do. So whatever you said about your education is NOT TRUE”

    W.T.F. is that supposed to mean?

    You know what, you’ve helped me… I’ve never been good at knowing when to stop, but this is a wonderful opportunity to do so. Thanks.

  151. BklynHawk says:

    I don’t know who’s still up, but this is incredible!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9lp0IWv8QZY

  152. W8ting says:

    Does anybody here know anything about http://www.homehunters.net? i see their ads for rentals all over craigslist and i was thinking about using them since their listings seem the most interesting. Should i stay away or pay the $195 to get access to their listings for 4 months?

  153. Pat says:

    firestormik, there’s a distinction between being clueless, following directions, and knowing how to get the answers you need to fix a problem. Edumacation cannot replace problem-solving experience.

    One can pretend to be clueless, and stand there, waiting for direction. One can fumble around, hoping to solve the problem. Or one can seek out various necessary inputs, then act.

    I’ll give you an example. Let’s say you have a group of guys from India who know how to program; all have been hand-picked to be sweet yes-men. One is just trying to move up the payroll ladder to the next better job. One is truly trying to be helpful, etc. Just like a bunch of newbies out of any US school.

    Let’s say you’re trying to get a web function up on some US law logic. If/then stuff.

    One guy will flounder and do nothing…he’s just job hunting. The other guy will smile and wait for you to produce a complex multi-dimensional spreadsheet of all possible logical outcomes…then he can do the programming (who couldn’t?).

    Finally, you discover the person who will read the law and make an effort to draft a first run program, useless as it might be.

    How many guys off the boat can you count on to do Number 3? Is the ratio of this type to group any less than the ratio of this type domestically?

    The issue in this scenario is that they just don’t have the practical background, so the ratio would be lower, and that may be what you’re referring to as being “knowledgeable.”

  154. aa says:

    #58

    Regarding college tution for kids, why do you need to pay it? Arent there federal loans and private loans that your kid can take?

    Above might be a stuipid question, but as you can tell that i dont have kids – so my knowledge here is not great at all. I hear a lot of people complain about kid’s college tution, but dont know what is preventing them to take loans. I hate loans in general, but loan for education is one exception in my book.

  155. Shore Guy says:

    The Obama WH is in the dark, really:

    http://twp.com/detail.jsp?key=373858&rc=trail

  156. Shore Guy says:

    The Obama WH is in the dark, really:

    http://twp.com/detail.jsp?key=373858&rc=trail

  157. chicagofinance says:

    aa says:
    April 14, 2009 at 11:17 pm
    #58

    Regarding college tution for kids, why do you need to pay it? Arent there federal loans and private loans that your kid can take?

    Above might be a stuipid question, but as you can tell that i dont have kids – so my knowledge here is not great at all. I hear a lot of people complain about kid’s college tution, but dont know what is preventing them to take loans. I hate loans in general, but loan for education is one exception in my book.

    aa: You want to be 22 years old with $100,000+ hanging over your head? …..and you don’t even need to have a top degree either…a lot of middle of the road places charge full price and churn out mediocre grads….

  158. d2b says:

    aa:

    It seems like more parents pay for tuition these days. Part of it is because schools are more expensive than they were 15 years ago.

    Seton Hall- 42k per year
    LaSalle University- 42k per year
    Saint Joseph’s University- 41k per year

    All three are good schools but there’s no way that you can let your kid take out loans to cover the whole thing.

    Even Rutgers is over 20k per year.

  159. pricedOut says:

    Grim @ 138

    must read

    Aging Baby Boomers and the Generational Housing Bubble: Foresight and Mitigation of an Epic Transition

    Broken link?

  160. aa says:

    #161 CF.

    Thanks for elaborating. I agree – tution rates are through the roof. Even in this economy with layoffs/ pay cuts/pay freeze, tution rate is one thing that is headed north (along with taxes of course). But if you dont let kid take on the loan, how will he learn that interest payment hurts. Wont you be stealing his chance to learn this fact of life?? Why not let the kiddo learn the hard lesson early in life?

  161. Revelations says:

    grim @ 136/138:

    Link doesn’t work for me, but great posts. Didn’t think of that. Some vacancies might be made up with immigrants, but not sure that would be enough. I bet this effect is rarely considered b/c it’s 1.) a long term view, and 2.) a slow and gradual impact. If recent history is any guide, I kinda think that ppl in general don’t embrace/heed trends with these characteristics.

  162. Revelations says:

    Thx BklynHawk.

    “The ratio of seniors to working-age residents will increase by 67% over the next two decades; thus we anticipate the end of a generational housing bubble.”

    This might also signal the end of the Social Security funding model..

    Also,
    “Such developments call planners to undertake new activities, including … cultivating new immigrant residents to replace them.”

    “Cultivating” new immigrants? I guess it makes sense – rather than get foreigners to buy our lousy paper, just get them to buy our real assets instead.. with a bonus cultivation on the house! (no pun intended)
    I wonder what extra NJ jobs will support such an influx?

  163. GerryAdams says:

    I will try to explain these concepts. First, the concept of adequacy is correct – its the cost necessary to provide a thorough and efficient education. The new law factors into the calculation circumstances such as the number of spec ed, economically disadvantaged, limited English students among others. That is what the state says should be the cost. Then, the town’s/district’s fair share is computed – that is based on factors such as income and property value. State equalization aid is the difference between fair share and adequacy. For example, if adequacy is 10 million and fair share is 7 million, then equalization aid is 3 million. If a town raises more than its fair share (Hoboken) it gets less aid since the school’s budget is capped at adequacy. Somerville is an example of that – it would get double the aid if budgets were not capped.

    Many schools do not raise property taxes to get to their fair share. Cities typically do not, but other school districts such as Somerset hills and Warren, raises a lot less – Somerset Hills’ fair share is 50 million yet the district raises only 25 million. Fair share is just how much the town COULD spend given its income and property value. Cities typically under tax their residents – their taxes bring in less than their fair share and as a result they get less aid since it is the difference between adequacy and fair share, not what they get in taxes. In fact, the state encourages this by giving districts less money when they overtax a town, and greater increase in aid when they undertax.

    I took data from the state’s projected school funding numbers for 2009-10. It is pretty easy to follow.

    http://www.state.nj.us/education/sff/profiles/0910/dist/

    BTW there is no data on Lake Como in Monmouth Cty.

    That being said, I am all for keeping school taxes within inflation, and in fact increases have been minimal recently. I just wish that the same would apply for county and municipal taxes as well.

    Anyone read about South or North Brunswick? They lowered their school budget but taxes are still going up due to a lowering value of ratables in town. As a young nephew of mine says…”Where’s the fairness?”

  164. Well, i dunno what kind of statistics they might have used to derive this. Stats can be flawed very easily.

Comments are closed.