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	<title>Comments on: Home prices to fall an additional 15%, stay at bottom for 2 years</title>
	<atom:link href="http://njrereport.com/index.php/2009/04/14/home-prices-to-fall-an-additional-15-stay-at-bottom-for-2-years/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://njrereport.com/index.php/2009/04/14/home-prices-to-fall-an-additional-15-stay-at-bottom-for-2-years/</link>
	<description>Real Estate, Economics, and Politics</description>
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		<title>By: Bollywood pics</title>
		<link>http://njrereport.com/index.php/2009/04/14/home-prices-to-fall-an-additional-15-stay-at-bottom-for-2-years/#comment-289245</link>
		<dc:creator>Bollywood pics</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 17 Apr 2009 22:28:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://njrereport.com/?p=4031#comment-289245</guid>
		<description>Well, i dunno what kind of statistics they might have used to derive this. Stats can be flawed very easily.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Well, i dunno what kind of statistics they might have used to derive this. Stats can be flawed very easily.</p>
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		<title>By: GerryAdams</title>
		<link>http://njrereport.com/index.php/2009/04/14/home-prices-to-fall-an-additional-15-stay-at-bottom-for-2-years/#comment-288052</link>
		<dc:creator>GerryAdams</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 15 Apr 2009 05:10:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://njrereport.com/?p=4031#comment-288052</guid>
		<description>I will try to explain these concepts.  First, the concept of adequacy is correct - its the cost necessary to provide a thorough and efficient education.  The new law factors into the calculation circumstances such as the number of spec ed, economically disadvantaged, limited English students among others.  That is what the state says should be the cost.  Then, the town&#039;s/district&#039;s fair share is computed - that is based on factors such as income and property value.  State equalization aid is the difference between fair share and adequacy.  For example, if adequacy is 10 million and fair share is 7 million, then equalization aid is 3 million.  If a town raises more than its fair share (Hoboken) it gets less aid since the school&#039;s budget is capped at adequacy.  Somerville is an example of that - it would get double the aid if budgets were not capped.  

Many schools do not raise property taxes to get to their fair share.  Cities typically do not, but other school districts such as Somerset hills and Warren,  raises a lot less - Somerset Hills&#039; fair share is 50 million yet the district raises only 25 million.  Fair share is just how much the town COULD spend given its income and property value.   Cities typically under tax their residents - their taxes bring in less than their fair share and as a result they get less aid since it is the difference between adequacy and fair share, not what they get in taxes. In fact, the state encourages this by giving districts less money when they overtax a town, and  greater increase in aid when they undertax.  

I took data from the state&#039;s projected school funding numbers for 2009-10.  It is pretty easy to follow.

http://www.state.nj.us/education/sff/profiles/0910/dist/

BTW there is no data on Lake Como in Monmouth Cty.

That being said, I am all for keeping school taxes within inflation, and in fact increases have been minimal recently.  I just wish that the same would apply for county and municipal taxes as well.  

Anyone read about South or North Brunswick?  They lowered their school budget but taxes are still going up due to a lowering value of ratables in town.  As a young nephew of mine says...&quot;Where&#039;s the fairness?&quot;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I will try to explain these concepts.  First, the concept of adequacy is correct &#8211; its the cost necessary to provide a thorough and efficient education.  The new law factors into the calculation circumstances such as the number of spec ed, economically disadvantaged, limited English students among others.  That is what the state says should be the cost.  Then, the town&#8217;s/district&#8217;s fair share is computed &#8211; that is based on factors such as income and property value.  State equalization aid is the difference between fair share and adequacy.  For example, if adequacy is 10 million and fair share is 7 million, then equalization aid is 3 million.  If a town raises more than its fair share (Hoboken) it gets less aid since the school&#8217;s budget is capped at adequacy.  Somerville is an example of that &#8211; it would get double the aid if budgets were not capped.  </p>
<p>Many schools do not raise property taxes to get to their fair share.  Cities typically do not, but other school districts such as Somerset hills and Warren,  raises a lot less &#8211; Somerset Hills&#8217; fair share is 50 million yet the district raises only 25 million.  Fair share is just how much the town COULD spend given its income and property value.   Cities typically under tax their residents &#8211; their taxes bring in less than their fair share and as a result they get less aid since it is the difference between adequacy and fair share, not what they get in taxes. In fact, the state encourages this by giving districts less money when they overtax a town, and  greater increase in aid when they undertax.  </p>
<p>I took data from the state&#8217;s projected school funding numbers for 2009-10.  It is pretty easy to follow.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.state.nj.us/education/sff/profiles/0910/dist/" rel="nofollow">http://www.state.nj.us/education/sff/profiles/0910/dist/</a></p>
<p>BTW there is no data on Lake Como in Monmouth Cty.</p>
<p>That being said, I am all for keeping school taxes within inflation, and in fact increases have been minimal recently.  I just wish that the same would apply for county and municipal taxes as well.  </p>
<p>Anyone read about South or North Brunswick?  They lowered their school budget but taxes are still going up due to a lowering value of ratables in town.  As a young nephew of mine says&#8230;&#8221;Where&#8217;s the fairness?&#8221;</p>
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		<title>By: Revelations</title>
		<link>http://njrereport.com/index.php/2009/04/14/home-prices-to-fall-an-additional-15-stay-at-bottom-for-2-years/#comment-288051</link>
		<dc:creator>Revelations</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 15 Apr 2009 04:31:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://njrereport.com/?p=4031#comment-288051</guid>
		<description>Thx BklynHawk.

&quot;The ratio of seniors to working-age residents will increase by 67% over the next two decades; thus we anticipate the end of a generational housing bubble.&quot;

This might also signal the end of the Social Security funding model..

Also,
&quot;Such developments call planners to undertake new activities, including ... cultivating new immigrant residents to replace them.&quot;

&quot;Cultivating&quot; new immigrants?  I guess it makes sense - rather than get foreigners to buy our lousy paper, just get them to buy our real assets instead..  with a bonus cultivation on the house! (no pun intended)
I wonder what extra NJ jobs will support such an influx?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Thx BklynHawk.</p>
<p>&#8220;The ratio of seniors to working-age residents will increase by 67% over the next two decades; thus we anticipate the end of a generational housing bubble.&#8221;</p>
<p>This might also signal the end of the Social Security funding model..</p>
<p>Also,<br />
&#8220;Such developments call planners to undertake new activities, including &#8230; cultivating new immigrant residents to replace them.&#8221;</p>
<p>&#8220;Cultivating&#8221; new immigrants?  I guess it makes sense &#8211; rather than get foreigners to buy our lousy paper, just get them to buy our real assets instead..  with a bonus cultivation on the house! (no pun intended)<br />
I wonder what extra NJ jobs will support such an influx?</p>
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		<title>By: Revelations</title>
		<link>http://njrereport.com/index.php/2009/04/14/home-prices-to-fall-an-additional-15-stay-at-bottom-for-2-years/#comment-288050</link>
		<dc:creator>Revelations</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 15 Apr 2009 04:14:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://njrereport.com/?p=4031#comment-288050</guid>
		<description>grim @ 136/138:

Link doesn&#039;t work for me, but great posts.  Didn&#039;t think of that.  Some vacancies might be made up with immigrants, but not sure that would be enough.  I bet this effect is rarely considered b/c it&#039;s 1.) a long term view, and 2.) a slow and gradual impact.  If recent history is any guide, I kinda think that ppl in general don&#039;t embrace/heed trends with these characteristics.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>grim @ 136/138:</p>
<p>Link doesn&#8217;t work for me, but great posts.  Didn&#8217;t think of that.  Some vacancies might be made up with immigrants, but not sure that would be enough.  I bet this effect is rarely considered b/c it&#8217;s 1.) a long term view, and 2.) a slow and gradual impact.  If recent history is any guide, I kinda think that ppl in general don&#8217;t embrace/heed trends with these characteristics.</p>
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		<title>By: BklynHawk</title>
		<link>http://njrereport.com/index.php/2009/04/14/home-prices-to-fall-an-additional-15-stay-at-bottom-for-2-years/#comment-288049</link>
		<dc:creator>BklynHawk</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 15 Apr 2009 04:13:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://njrereport.com/?p=4031#comment-288049</guid>
		<description>not sure if the link is still problematic...

Boomer study

http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/content~content=a789053981~db=all~order=pubdate</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>not sure if the link is still problematic&#8230;</p>
<p>Boomer study</p>
<p><a href="http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/content~content=a789053981~db=all~order=pubdate" rel="nofollow">http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/content~content=a789053981~db=all~order=pubdate</a></p>
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		<title>By: aa</title>
		<link>http://njrereport.com/index.php/2009/04/14/home-prices-to-fall-an-additional-15-stay-at-bottom-for-2-years/#comment-288048</link>
		<dc:creator>aa</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 15 Apr 2009 03:53:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://njrereport.com/?p=4031#comment-288048</guid>
		<description>#161 CF.

Thanks for elaborating. I agree - tution rates are through the roof. Even in this economy with layoffs/ pay cuts/pay freeze, tution rate is one thing that is headed north (along with taxes of course). But if you dont let kid take on the loan, how will he learn that interest payment hurts. Wont you be stealing his chance to learn this fact of life?? Why not let the kiddo learn the hard lesson early in life?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>#161 CF.</p>
<p>Thanks for elaborating. I agree &#8211; tution rates are through the roof. Even in this economy with layoffs/ pay cuts/pay freeze, tution rate is one thing that is headed north (along with taxes of course). But if you dont let kid take on the loan, how will he learn that interest payment hurts. Wont you be stealing his chance to learn this fact of life?? Why not let the kiddo learn the hard lesson early in life?</p>
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		<title>By: pricedOut</title>
		<link>http://njrereport.com/index.php/2009/04/14/home-prices-to-fall-an-additional-15-stay-at-bottom-for-2-years/#comment-288047</link>
		<dc:creator>pricedOut</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 15 Apr 2009 03:47:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://njrereport.com/?p=4031#comment-288047</guid>
		<description>Grim @ 138

&lt;i&gt;must read&lt;/i&gt;

&lt;i&gt;Aging Baby Boomers and the Generational Housing Bubble: Foresight and Mitigation of an Epic Transition&lt;/i&gt;

Broken link?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Grim @ 138</p>
<p><i>must read</i></p>
<p><i>Aging Baby Boomers and the Generational Housing Bubble: Foresight and Mitigation of an Epic Transition</i></p>
<p>Broken link?</p>
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		<title>By: d2b</title>
		<link>http://njrereport.com/index.php/2009/04/14/home-prices-to-fall-an-additional-15-stay-at-bottom-for-2-years/#comment-288046</link>
		<dc:creator>d2b</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 15 Apr 2009 03:47:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://njrereport.com/?p=4031#comment-288046</guid>
		<description>aa:

It seems like more parents pay for tuition these days.  Part of it is because schools are more expensive than they were 15 years ago.  

Seton Hall- 42k per year
LaSalle University- 42k per year
Saint Joseph&#039;s University- 41k per year

All three are good schools but there&#039;s no way that you can let your kid take out loans to cover the whole thing.

Even Rutgers is over 20k per year.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>aa:</p>
<p>It seems like more parents pay for tuition these days.  Part of it is because schools are more expensive than they were 15 years ago.  </p>
<p>Seton Hall- 42k per year<br />
LaSalle University- 42k per year<br />
Saint Joseph&#8217;s University- 41k per year</p>
<p>All three are good schools but there&#8217;s no way that you can let your kid take out loans to cover the whole thing.</p>
<p>Even Rutgers is over 20k per year.</p>
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		<title>By: chicagofinance</title>
		<link>http://njrereport.com/index.php/2009/04/14/home-prices-to-fall-an-additional-15-stay-at-bottom-for-2-years/#comment-288045</link>
		<dc:creator>chicagofinance</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 15 Apr 2009 03:37:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://njrereport.com/?p=4031#comment-288045</guid>
		<description>aa says: 
April 14, 2009 at 11:17 pm
#58 

Regarding college tution for kids, why do you need to pay it? Arent there federal loans and private loans that your kid can take?

Above might be a stuipid question, but as you can tell that i dont have kids - so my knowledge here is not great at all. I hear a lot of people complain about kid’s college tution, but dont know what is preventing them to take loans. I hate loans in general, but loan for education is one exception in my book.

aa: You want to be 22 years old with $100,000+ hanging over your head? .....and you don&#039;t even need to have a top degree either...a lot of middle of the road places charge full price and churn out mediocre grads....</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>aa says:<br />
April 14, 2009 at 11:17 pm<br />
#58 </p>
<p>Regarding college tution for kids, why do you need to pay it? Arent there federal loans and private loans that your kid can take?</p>
<p>Above might be a stuipid question, but as you can tell that i dont have kids &#8211; so my knowledge here is not great at all. I hear a lot of people complain about kid’s college tution, but dont know what is preventing them to take loans. I hate loans in general, but loan for education is one exception in my book.</p>
<p>aa: You want to be 22 years old with $100,000+ hanging over your head? &#8230;..and you don&#8217;t even need to have a top degree either&#8230;a lot of middle of the road places charge full price and churn out mediocre grads&#8230;.</p>
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		<title>By: Shore Guy</title>
		<link>http://njrereport.com/index.php/2009/04/14/home-prices-to-fall-an-additional-15-stay-at-bottom-for-2-years/#comment-288044</link>
		<dc:creator>Shore Guy</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 15 Apr 2009 03:31:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://njrereport.com/?p=4031#comment-288044</guid>
		<description>The Obama WH is in the dark, really:

http://twp.com/detail.jsp?key=373858&amp;rc=trail</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Obama WH is in the dark, really:</p>
<p><a href="http://twp.com/detail.jsp?key=373858&amp;rc=trail" rel="nofollow">http://twp.com/detail.jsp?key=373858&amp;rc=trail</a></p>
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		<title>By: Shore Guy</title>
		<link>http://njrereport.com/index.php/2009/04/14/home-prices-to-fall-an-additional-15-stay-at-bottom-for-2-years/#comment-288043</link>
		<dc:creator>Shore Guy</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 15 Apr 2009 03:31:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://njrereport.com/?p=4031#comment-288043</guid>
		<description>The Obama WH is in the dark, really:

http://twp.com/detail.jsp?key=373858&amp;rc=trail</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Obama WH is in the dark, really:</p>
<p><a href="http://twp.com/detail.jsp?key=373858&amp;rc=trail" rel="nofollow">http://twp.com/detail.jsp?key=373858&amp;rc=trail</a></p>
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		<title>By: aa</title>
		<link>http://njrereport.com/index.php/2009/04/14/home-prices-to-fall-an-additional-15-stay-at-bottom-for-2-years/#comment-288042</link>
		<dc:creator>aa</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 15 Apr 2009 03:17:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://njrereport.com/?p=4031#comment-288042</guid>
		<description>#58 

Regarding college tution for kids, why do you need to pay it? Arent there federal loans and private loans that your kid can take?

Above might be a stuipid question, but as you can tell that i dont have kids - so my knowledge here is not great at all. I hear a lot of people complain about kid&#039;s college tution, but dont know what is preventing them to take loans. I hate loans in general, but loan for education is one exception in my book.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>#58 </p>
<p>Regarding college tution for kids, why do you need to pay it? Arent there federal loans and private loans that your kid can take?</p>
<p>Above might be a stuipid question, but as you can tell that i dont have kids &#8211; so my knowledge here is not great at all. I hear a lot of people complain about kid&#8217;s college tution, but dont know what is preventing them to take loans. I hate loans in general, but loan for education is one exception in my book.</p>
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		<title>By: Pat</title>
		<link>http://njrereport.com/index.php/2009/04/14/home-prices-to-fall-an-additional-15-stay-at-bottom-for-2-years/#comment-288041</link>
		<dc:creator>Pat</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 15 Apr 2009 03:17:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://njrereport.com/?p=4031#comment-288041</guid>
		<description>firestormik, there&#039;s a distinction between being clueless, following directions, and knowing how to get the answers you need to fix a problem.  Edumacation cannot replace problem-solving experience.

One can pretend to be clueless, and stand there, waiting for direction.   One can fumble around, hoping to solve the problem.   Or one can seek out various necessary inputs, then act.

I&#039;ll give you an example.   Let&#039;s say you have a group of guys from India who know how to program; all have been hand-picked to be sweet yes-men.   One is just trying to move up the payroll ladder to the next better job.  One is truly trying to be helpful, etc.   Just like a bunch of newbies out of any US school.

Let&#039;s say you&#039;re trying to get a web function up on some US law logic.  If/then stuff.  

One guy will flounder and do nothing...he&#039;s just job hunting.   The other guy will smile and wait for you to produce a complex multi-dimensional spreadsheet of all possible logical outcomes...then he can do the programming (who couldn&#039;t?).

Finally, you discover the person who will read the law and make an effort to draft a first run program, useless as it might be. 

How many guys off the boat can you count on to do Number 3?   Is the ratio of this type to group any less than the ratio of this type domestically?

The issue in this scenario is that they just don&#039;t have the practical background, so the ratio would be lower, and that may be what you&#039;re referring to as being &quot;knowledgeable.&quot;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>firestormik, there&#8217;s a distinction between being clueless, following directions, and knowing how to get the answers you need to fix a problem.  Edumacation cannot replace problem-solving experience.</p>
<p>One can pretend to be clueless, and stand there, waiting for direction.   One can fumble around, hoping to solve the problem.   Or one can seek out various necessary inputs, then act.</p>
<p>I&#8217;ll give you an example.   Let&#8217;s say you have a group of guys from India who know how to program; all have been hand-picked to be sweet yes-men.   One is just trying to move up the payroll ladder to the next better job.  One is truly trying to be helpful, etc.   Just like a bunch of newbies out of any US school.</p>
<p>Let&#8217;s say you&#8217;re trying to get a web function up on some US law logic.  If/then stuff.  </p>
<p>One guy will flounder and do nothing&#8230;he&#8217;s just job hunting.   The other guy will smile and wait for you to produce a complex multi-dimensional spreadsheet of all possible logical outcomes&#8230;then he can do the programming (who couldn&#8217;t?).</p>
<p>Finally, you discover the person who will read the law and make an effort to draft a first run program, useless as it might be. </p>
<p>How many guys off the boat can you count on to do Number 3?   Is the ratio of this type to group any less than the ratio of this type domestically?</p>
<p>The issue in this scenario is that they just don&#8217;t have the practical background, so the ratio would be lower, and that may be what you&#8217;re referring to as being &#8220;knowledgeable.&#8221;</p>
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		<title>By: W8ting</title>
		<link>http://njrereport.com/index.php/2009/04/14/home-prices-to-fall-an-additional-15-stay-at-bottom-for-2-years/#comment-288040</link>
		<dc:creator>W8ting</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 15 Apr 2009 03:16:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://njrereport.com/?p=4031#comment-288040</guid>
		<description>Does anybody here know anything about www.homehunters.net?  i see their ads for rentals all over craigslist and i was thinking about using them since their listings seem the most interesting.  Should i stay away or pay the $195 to get access to their listings for 4 months?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Does anybody here know anything about <a href="http://www.homehunters.net?" rel="nofollow">http://www.homehunters.net?</a>  i see their ads for rentals all over craigslist and i was thinking about using them since their listings seem the most interesting.  Should i stay away or pay the $195 to get access to their listings for 4 months?</p>
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		<title>By: BklynHawk</title>
		<link>http://njrereport.com/index.php/2009/04/14/home-prices-to-fall-an-additional-15-stay-at-bottom-for-2-years/#comment-288039</link>
		<dc:creator>BklynHawk</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 15 Apr 2009 03:05:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://njrereport.com/?p=4031#comment-288039</guid>
		<description>I don&#039;t know who&#039;s still up, but this is incredible!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9lp0IWv8QZY</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I don&#8217;t know who&#8217;s still up, but this is incredible!</p>
<p><a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9lp0IWv8QZY" rel="nofollow">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9lp0IWv8QZY</a></p>
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