Thu 23 Apr 2009
Unprecedentedly Brutal
Categories: Economics , Housing Bubble , New Development , New Jersey Real EstateFrom the Record:
New Jersey builders used the words “brutal” and “unprecedented” repeatedly at a statewide trade show Tuesday to describe a housing market undermined by surging unemployment and tighter mortgage lending.
Attendance at the annual New Jersey Builders Association convention is off by a third amid a U.S. recession one economist described as the deepest since World War II. The event — which normally draws 15,000 builders, developers and subcontractors — has about 10,000 registered attendees.
Jeffrey G. Otteau, an economist with the Otteau Valuation Group, said New Jersey has a year’s worth of unsold housing inventory and prices typically fall whenever there is more than five months’ worth of inventory.
“We are not in a recovery,” said Otteau, who delivered the association’s economic outlook. “Home prices will continue to decline.”
Otteau’s presentation was marked by exclamations and quiet discussions among attendees.
…
Another speaker, Rutgers University economist Joseph Seneca, said the state will see a “new normal” in which consumers will spend less and save more, and fewer people will own homes. Fewer people will work in the finance industry, and they’ll make less, Seneca said.“The bottom of the current economic debacle is close at hand,” he told the builders.
But he cautioned that the state is not there yet. This year will be a weak one, and the recovery will begin in 2010, he said. Problems in the financial sector and in several European countries are troubling, and the worst of commercial real estate problems have yet to come, he said.
Otteau said the New Jersey housing slowdown is being aggravated by the number of people leaving the state, which has the nation’s highest tax burden. He said New Jersey ranks third among U.S. states in population loss, and its housing market is unlikely to recover until the end of this year at the earliest.
Otteau estimated that housing prices have declined 36 percent from their peak and New Jersey prices have fallen 24 percent.
…
New Jersey issued 1,507 permits for new home construction in January and February, according to association data. That number represents 33 percent of the 4,543 permits issued for the same period of 2006.“It’s brutal,” said John Kirkenir, co-manager of Alliance Homes in East Windsor. “We have three homes under construction right now and we feel fortunate to have three. Normally, we’d have 20.”
CNA FINL CORP DEB 7.25000% 11/15/2023
Basic Analytics
Price (Ask) 60.000
Yield to Worst (Ask) 13.643%
126117AE0
Investment grade bond of the day
From MarketWatch:
Initial jobless claims rise; continuing claims hit new record
First-time claims for state unemployment benefits rose a seasonally adjusted 27,000 to 640,000 in the week ended April 18, the Labor Department reported Thursday.
The four-week average of initial claims fell 4,250 to 646,750 in the most recent weekly data. The four-week average is considered a better gauge of labor market conditions than the volatile weekly figures because it smoothes out one-time distortions caused by holidays, bad weather or strikes.
Initial claims fell a revised 47,000 in the prior week.
For the week ended April 11, the number of people collecting state unemployment benefits reached yet another new record, rising 93,000 to 6.14 million — more than double the level in the prior year. Continuing claims have reached new weekly records since late January, signaling that workers are having a tough time finding jobs. The four-week average of continuing claims rose 142,500 to a record 5.94 million.
The insured unemployment rate — the proportion of covered workers who are receiving benefits — rose to 4.6% from 4.5%, reaching the highest level since January 1983.
Initial claims represent job destruction, while the level of continuing claims indicates how hard or easy it is for displaced workers to find new jobs. The latest claims report shows that finding a replacement job remains difficult.
From Bloomberg:
Hamptons Home Prices Plummet 23% as Summer Home Demand Cools
Home prices in the Hamptons, the oceanside getaway of celebrities and Wall Street financiers, plummeted in the first quarter as the financial crisis cut demand for vacation properties.
The median price fell 23 percent from a year earlier to $675,000. Sellers offered average discounts of 11 percent off their asking price, up from 9.6 percent in the year-earlier quarter, New York appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. and broker Prudential Douglas Elliman Real Estate said today in a report.
“The primary reason is linkage to Wall Street,” said Miller Samuel President Jonathan Miller. “You’ve got job loss, anticipated job loss, as well as lower compensation and anticipated lower compensation. There’s less of an urgency for people who aren’t affected by that to buy.”
home prices decline?
whatever, your a cook.
tinfoil hat stuff.
SAS
“The primary reason is linkage to Wall Street,”
[3],
The good news is the train towns in NNJ are immune.
“Now that the foreclosure moratorium has ended, notices of default (NOD) have spiked to an all-time high. These notices will turn into foreclosures in four to five months’ time, creating another cascade of foreclosures. Market analysts predict there will be 5 million more foreclosures between now and 2011. It’s a disaster bigger than Katrina.”
“Soaring unemployment and rising foreclosures ensure that hundreds of banks and financial institutions will be forced into bankruptcy. Forty percent of delinquent homeowners have already vacated their homes. There’s nothing Obama can do to make them stay. Worse still, only 30 percent of foreclosures have been relisted for sale, suggesting more hanky-panky at the banks. Where have the houses gone? Have they simply vanished?”
“According to the Wall Street Journal: “Ronald Temple, co-director of research at Lazard Asset Management, expects home prices to fall 22% to 27% from their January levels.”
http://onlinejournal.com/artman/publish/article_4618.shtml
From MarketWatch:
U.S. March existing-home sales fall 3% to 4.57M
U.S. existing-home prices down 12.4% in past year
U.S. March home inventory falls 1.6% to 3.74M
Green Shoots!!!
From MarketWatch:
Existing-home sales fall 3% in March
Resales of existing homes and condos fell 3% in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.57 million, with distressed sales now accounting for half of all sales, a trade group reported Thursday.
Sales are down 7.1% in the past year, the National Association of Realtors said in its monthly sales report.
…
Sales were weaker than the 4.63 million pace expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. February’s sales pace was revised lower to 4.71 million from 4.72 million.
Median sales prices have fallen 12.4% in the past year, the group said. Distressed sales typically go for 20% less, the real estate trade group said.
…
In March, sales fell 8% in the Northeast, fell 1.7% in the South, fell 4.2% in the West and were unchanged in the Midwest.
Sales of single-family homes dropped 2.8% in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.1 million. Sales of condos fell 4.1% to a 470,000 pace.
From Reuters:
U.S. existing home sales fell 3.0 pct in March
The pace of sales of existing homes in the United States fell 3.0 percent in March to a much lower-than-expected annual rate of 4.57 million units, the National Association of Realtors said on Thursday.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast home resales to slip to a 4.70 million-unit pace from a revised 4.71 million for February, which was initially reported as 4.72 million.
The inventory of existing homes for sale fell to 3.74 million from the 3.80 million overstock reported for February. The median national home price rose 4.2 percent to $175,200 from February, boosted by seasonal factors. However, prices fell 12.4 percent compared to the same period a year ago.
grim says:
April 23, 2009 at 10:07 am
From MarketWatch:
U.S. March existing-home sales fall 3% to 4.57M
U.S. existing-home prices down 12.4% in past year
U.S. March home inventory falls 1.6% to 3.74M
Great news - I have just saved 36,000$ on a 300K house!!!!
Couple more years and I might be able to afford one!!!
from the WSJ:
“Americans changed residences less often last year than at any time since the Census Bureau began keeping track in 1948, the latest sign of how the recession and falling house prices are keeping more people in place.”
population loss is going to accelerate in high cost northeastern states as baby boomers have much fewer resources for retirement. if choice is between stay in NY/NJ/CT/MA and keep working or move west or south and retire, I think many people will choose the latter.
From Bloomberg:
U.S. Existing Home Sales Fell in March to 4.57 Million Rate
ales of U.S. previously owned homes fell in March after jumping a month earlier by the most in more than five years, indicating the market will remain depressed for much of the year.
Purchases decreased 3 percent to an annual rate of 4.57 million, lower than forecast, from 4.71 million in February, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington. The median price slumped 12 percent from a year ago and distressed properties accounted for about 50 percent of all sales.
most school budgets passed. train towns
A-ok..
NJ/all real estate is local.
Big TIME GREEN SHOOT!!!!! My Bonds have been enjoying a huge rally, no need to raise rates anytime soon.
Also that last time homes were fairly priced was Jan 1st 2000. Until we get back to that price home values have not really fallen at all, this is just the blowing of the froth off a starbucks coffee. The unwinding of the inflated value back to normal value is just a cyclical event.
U.S. March existing-home sales fall 3% to 4.57M
U.S. existing-home prices down 12.4% in past year
U.S. March home inventory falls 1.6% to 3.74M
i love Hg Soda.
“Fructose-Sweetened Beverages Linked to Heart Risks”
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/23/health/23sugar.html?_r=3&ref=health
“The unwinding of the inflated value back to normal value is just a cyclical event.”
J,
Regarding housing, I agree. Not the case for the economy.
Just for fun, let me show you how quickly munis have moved, paid $7,470 on 12-11-08 and now worth $9,700. That is a 30% gain in 4 months.
64983TPC1 NEW YORK ST DORM AUTH REVS PERSONAL 04.50000% 03/1 03/15/2034
I think, muni market still has room to run, with taxable build america bonds and higher taxes to come. Less long term tax free inventory means high prices.
BC Bob-
If O wants to keep the banks, anything is possible. On a day when housing is down, unemployment is up, and UPS misses the market does not sell off.
This is either the new bottom or the biggest pump and dump of all time.
“On a day when housing is down, unemployment is up, and UPS misses the market does not sell off.”
jcs,
Should the market be surprised with these reports?
The value of homes has far exceeded the average incomes of local residents therefore the results signal a disaster in the making. Over built homes which are merely speculative and ill planned are likely to be total losses.
Who would build a 5 bedroom home, 3 baths, and 1 car garage at the time of a realstate collapse? Someone trying to attract illegal immigrants for rental tenants? Don’t try it I have ICE at your door before the Ink dries on the deed!
#15 freddy:train towns
A-ok..
Where are they taking those trains to? Jobs in NYC??
While searching for a used minivan, I came across this. This is going to be a pain trying to find the van I want at a price I want if I have to contend with this tactic.
*All advertised prices reflect a $2000.00 “War against Terrorism” rebate. To qualify, you must be actively serving, or must have served in the U.S. military in either the Afganistan, or Iraq or elsewhere in the Middle East within the past 6 months. * $2,000 REBATE ALREADY INCLUDED IN THE CURRENT ADVERTISED PRICE* If you are currently active in law enforcement, or firefighting, we will extend a discount of $500.00 off of our already low standard pricing. To qualify, proper credentials will be required. Identification subject to dealers approval.
kettle; From the previous post, throw in the towel as in not buying.
plenty of jobs for the train town folks.
this is NJ. close to NYC.
plenty of bailout jobs . after all , NJ
has retraining programs.
Trulia has a new feature. You can click a “price reduced” box and only see properties in your search where the price has been reduced. They give the date, amount and percentage. This probably only lists the last reduction, but I find it interesting that they spent the time programming this feature into their website. There was no need for it a few years ago. Unless more houses appear in “price reduced”, they can eliminate their “recently sold properties” box.
#24 PGC: I am in the market for another late model car/small SUV, and it is amazing. The dealer show rooms are empty ( I don’t live in John’s neighborhood in LI, where I am sure they are packed, just poor wannabe Bergen Co). And yet these guys are asking ridiculous prices for 3 or 4 year old cars.
However, I am getting close, paying cash makes a big difference.
“The value of homes has far exceeded the average incomes of local residents therefore the results signal a disaster in the making.”
bingo. and massive numbers of baby boomers are planning on bailing out of their big suburban homes to fund retirement, avoid increasingly punitive property taxes and for lifestyle reasons.
who will they sell to? gen x and y whose incomes have (outside of finance, which is now f’d too) not really grown in a decade, who have insane amounts of student debt that they will carry into their 40s, who face much greater career instability than their parents ever knew, who face the prospect of massively increased taxation on wages and assets in coming years…
#26 freddy:close to NYC.
Close to NYC where unemployment is skyrocketing?? Another 4000 wall st jobs lost in March.
3B, #28
I’m about to buy a used car all cash as well. Does the cash angle really make a big difference to the salesmen? I want to know if I should be advertising that fact up front, or just drop it on them when the deal is about to be done.
#29 skeptic: Don’t be so neagative, we just voted yes for our school budget. We did it for our kids, and grandkids.
Now the least they can do is pay big bucks for our houses and big property taxes to show us their gratitude.
PGC #24:
“*All advertised prices reflect a $2000.00 “War against Terrorism” rebate. To qualify, you must be actively serving, or must have served in the U.S. military in either the Afganistan, or Iraq or elsewhere in the Middle East within the past 6 months. *”
Does a “Support Our Troops” magnetic sticker [the adhesives hurt the paint] on the giant minivan count?
S
Yes it does IMO. When I purchased my last used vehicle, 5 years ago, it did not, as everyone and any one could get financing.
Bargain for your best price, when the salesman talks about financing be vgaue do not commit one way or the other.
Then when you feel you have gotten the best price, than tell him, you are paying cash, and as such his price needs to be better.
As far as reserch etc, I have found Edmunds to be very helpful
The economic decline an debt brought about by the outsourcing of US jobs is not a business cycle so a recovery is out of the question. The building of homes and pricing of existing homes does not reflect the disposable incomes of the average worker. It can’t be business as usual reality will tend to that.
Attendance at the annual New Jersey Builders Association convention is off by a third amid a U.S. recession one economist described as the deepest since World War II. The event — which normally draws 15,000 builders, developers and subcontractors — has about 10,000 registered attendees.
I attended GlobeCom 2009 (telecommunications conference) in New Orleans this year and while the number of presenters and registrations were the same as 2008 it was clear that attendance was down by 25-50%
I have also heard the same about other communications conferences. I don’t think the lack of attendance for homebuilders was just due to the industry. Many companies are employing cost cutting measures and those include cutting out trips to conferences.
#31, #28…
Paying cash for cars… There were some nice discounts for 0-percent financing at a Ford place a couple of years ago. We had to really push for the same discounts when we wanted to pay it without any financing. I think the sales guys do not really care about how we pay for the cars, and may in fact like the opposite. May be they get two “hits” with financing option — one for selling the car, and one for getting a new financing client?
S
3b, why not buy directly from private parties? Especially the ones where they have already paid for the “extended warranty”.
S
@36. Talk about bad turn out; I’ll be headed to the ICSC (International Council of Shopping Centers) RECon Conference next month in Vegas. Last year GGP had free shuttles from all hotels to the convention center. I wonder if they’ll have the bankruptcy rickshaw this year?
#37/38 sastry: With financing harder to get now, I have found the sales people do care as far as financing vs. cash.
As far as private party many of them have asking prices that reflect just as much denial as many house asking prices.
Plus I will only buy if the seller can produce service records.
What gets me about these conferences is that they seem to always say “We had record attendance this year”, “We had the most number of registrees this year” or something to that effect.
When you look around all you see is empty carpet in these conference centers. I ran a booth for my company at Globecom and we were a major sponsor giving away nice goodies. At no time was there a line more than two people deep.
Ever been to job retraining during a downturn? When few course related jobs are found the schools quickly change their courses. Outsourcing has litterly made job retraining pointless. The schools themselves have been hiring visa workers while denying employment to the best of their graduates.
The last down turn from the Tech Bubble has proved to be an on going current event with roots as far back as the 1980’s.
#35
“The building of homes and pricing of existing homes does not reflect the disposable incomes of the average worker. It can’t be business as usual reality will tend to that.”
yes– price still reflects some imagined forward rate of return on investment. many starter houses are also still pricing as if there is a teardown premium (but builders are toast financially). Bottom line is that now that the housing ponzi scheme has collapsed, it is all about what people can afford, not what you can sell the place for to someone else in 2-5 yrs. To get prices back in line with income in our area (assuming incomes remain constant, which is a big assumption at this point), would require another 20-30% drop.
“The economic decline an debt brought about by the outsourcing of US jobs is not a business cycle so a recovery is out of the question.”
[35],
Exactly. Howver, not just due to the outsourcing of jobs.
This is not an inventory / inflation cycle. It’s a balance sheet recession. The old economy, [debt, credit, spending fueled by asset apprec., speculation, etc] is kaput. A total restructuring is required fueled by savings, investment and innovation.
It certainly was one hell of a blow off top. Unfortunately, we will sink to the depths, before rebuilding.
that’s however.
Pay cash for car from private party, cheaper than dealer and get them to “gift it” to you, no sales tax. There is a DMV form.
Pay cash for car from private party, cheaper than dealer and get them to “gift it” to you, no sales tax. There is a DMV form.
I receved a fraudualent bill from UPS. Their excuse somebody had a similar account number. I hadn’t used UPS since early 2004. Either a theft was in motion or UPS was pumping their books to woo investors and save their stock price. I suggested they contact the FBI.
#43 skeptic: So you are not interested in the house listed below? A new picture, and a 20K price reduction, should I would think move it.
I know I post this one alot, but I think it says so much as it relates to the mania of the housing boom that is now a bust.
http://www.njmls.com/cf/details.cfm?mls_number=2915862&id=999999
I used to work for UPS repairing the 13,000 prefered customer shipping systems in the Metro DC area.
It is very possible that someone could have mistyped their account number if they were using shipping lables that were printed off their internet shipping site.
The package would have been marked for pickup or delivery from a specific office though so the UPS could find the person who entered the fraudulent account information fairly quickly.
3b,
Lovely how the first picture has green grass and the second picture has dry parched earth, grass turned brown from thirst.
These pictures haven’t been doctored at all…
#49
3b– that house is truly hideous. That said, I have no idea what a reasonable price for it would be as I am not familiar with the area. What do you think it should go for?
Dealers usually are not allowed to provide full records. I got full records at auction, every receipt, purchase contract etc. with orginal owners home address and phone number etc. Heck got his bank information too. Dealers usually toss it, but at auction they send it through
This Question may Be completely out of topic but i will ask it anyway:
I am in a buying a Foreclosed house which is not at all maintained and there is a lot of damage caused by the owner who vacated the house. I am looking at buying it and getting the stuff repaired.
Is there a good Home Inspector anyone can refer who is honest in his evaluation and will take a look at the house in detail than go with the checklist and provide a comprehensive list of things that may require repair.
Any referrals from anyone..
Thanks,
Rick
#46 - John,
That really is a crappy thing to suggest - so once again it’s the honest folks who don’t cheat and lie that probably end up paying for people like you who suggest you not pay your fair share.
Layoffs Watch ‘09: WB/WFC
Posted by Bess Levin, Apr 23, 2009, 8:33am
Apparently there will be “massive” cuts, in the range of forty percent, beginning today and lasting through the week for legacy Wachovia employees in LevFin, M&A, DCM, IB, etc.
http://dealbreaker.com/2009/04/layoffs-watch-09-wbwfc.php
3B
Relax and enjoy the show. Its interesting that the northeast is holding up so well, but if you look at state level data NJ was was at about 2.6 X for home price/gross income (assuming an LTV of 80%) the state is currently at about 4.5X.
Based on the home price multiple i have no doubt that NJ will return to 99 prices if for no other reason then the major high paying industries are leaving the state and tax burdens are becoming excessively onerous. What industry is going to replace Pharma and finance in the near future????
On a regional scale, i believe that the northeast region as defined by the US census has a very good chance of returning to 1983 levels. the northeast region was at a gross income to home price ratio [(0.8*median purchase price) / Gross income] of about 3.0 in 1983 and is currently at about 5.0.
What is going to drive the shift? a combined factor of rising unemployment, a return to lending standards requiring real risk assessment and a 20+% down payment, as well as a likely spike in interest rates similar to what we saw in the 80’s.
What that suggests is that we will have a very long slow slor as it is going to take a very long time for most people to build up a 20% DP and redcce their debt load enough to be an acceptable risk to a mortgage lender.
This scenario is unthinkable to most people simply because a majority do not remember a time before cheap debt and easy credit that was generated in large part do to corporate globalization.
here is a fun comparison of different economic effects over the last 30 years. From an economics stand point we are going back to 1983 (Back to the future baby, we only need to hit 88 MPH!!!!)
http://www.scribd.com/full/14565800?access_key=key-196bmictvoe5nmjr26wl
From last night:
if anyone is curious what sort of condition FDIC insurance is in take a look:
http://www.scribd.com/full/14550745?access_key=key-p2gyt42c1jndztx7ig3
they are currently insuring 4.7 trillion with only about 20 billion. Citi alone has more then 100 billion in insured deposits.
John says:
April 23, 2009 at 11:45 am
Pay cash for car from private party, cheaper than dealer and get them to “gift it” to you, no sales tax. There is a DMV form.
Next spring you will receive a letter from Trenton asking about all the intimate details of your gifting relationship, guaranteed. You will also receive one if your sales price reported when registering the car is <75% or so of KBB value - I had to send them copies of the bills for repairs that had been needed, etc. to justify a low price.
Outsourcing has many effects like reducing wages and the loss of benefits across unrelated occupations. Because the avalability of cheaper potential labor effects the minds of the greedy. With so many temp agencies willing to thwart the law vast amounts of undocumented aliens are obtainable to replace current workers. Because the estimated population of undocumented aliens is 30 million plus wage pressures have to be effected.
#53 John Every dealer I have been too has been able to provide service records, along with a carfax report.
Mr Doughnut -
Nice Posts! Welcome to NJREReport. Here is another graph which does not look good for the economy considering that 70% of it is based on consumer spending.
From CR (Initial and Continued unemployment claims) -
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/SfBkY3JXXMI/AAAAAAAAFEE/m87mkix262Y/s1600-h/WeeklyApr232009.jpg
#55… second that. Especially with the state requiring additional funds, they will crack down on obvious foul play.
If someone does something like a “5k check + 1k cash transaction” (I don’t know why one would bother to save the piddly 70 bucks, but seems some people really dig that sh!t), they may get away.
On the other hand, if someone does a “20k car is a gift” thing, they will be audited, and even get into some federal level problems (e.g. what did you have to do to get the gift!).
That said, I hesitate to respond to John. He seems to be trolling and many regulars seem to take the bait quickly.
S
In case not posted…rapping flight attendent..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ivjybzdXVmI
Attendance at the annual New Jersey Builders Association convention is off by a third amid a U.S. recession one economist described as the deepest since World War II. The event — which normally draws 15,000 builders, developers and subcontractors — has about 10,000 registered attendees.
I’ve gone to that thing in years past. It’s a total waste of time. Like most of these events in our industry it’s a mild form of shakedown by the host comittee.
At least the plumbing show holds it in an actual casino so after I make my one lap around I can go play poker.
#57 kettle: Where in your opinion do you think we are this time next year price wise?
Having lived through the last housing down turn I can tell you that prices declined a lot faster, and the declines were bigger in a much shorter period of time.
This time the economic/financial situation is far worse, and yet there is still this large disconnect in prices.
Jeez even apartment prices in NYC are down 20 to 25% from the summer of 08, and yet surburban north Jersey towns appear to not have gotten the message even in this 2009 Spring selling season.
I admit I have trouble understanding the disconnect, and I have been around the block a few times,and it just does not make sense to me.
cobbler [59],
Yep. I received one, bought at <50% book.
Just a thought…
People list their home as a short-sale even though they have a large equity stake just to get their listing more looks?
#52 skeptic: I hazard to even guess. It comes with a 20K+ a year tax bill, and it literally has no back yard.
How does one fairly value that? Also you must include the ugly factor IMO.
HUD gave loans to 5 million undocumented aliens. Considering their usually larger families there could be as many as 25 million of them in the street by the end of the decade if their foreclosed upon. Loans to visa immigrants whose visas are temporary could expand the foreclosures by several more million.
http://www.mbaa.org/NewsandMedia/PressCenter/68580.htm
Weekly Application Survey
WASHINGTON, D.C. (April 22, 2009) — The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 17, 2009.
…
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 4.73 percent from 4.70 percent, with points decreasing to 1.12 from 1.23 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans.
The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages remained unchanged at 4.46 percent, with points increasing to 1.18 from 1.04 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans.
MrDoughnut,
Please provide a link to your HUD statistics? Is there someplace I could view this information myself?
I love this guy
http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/
My commute is getting easier every week. Some mornings 287 in rush hour seems like light weekend traffic.
Mr Doughtnut! It is I Mr Coffee.
Please feel free to take a dip in my warm juices.
3b,
i dont think we will see the serious decline until 2 key things happen. 1) then banks begin to unleash their witheld foreclosure stock 2) interest rates skyrocket.
With the government interfering in the market normal market behaviors can and often will go out the window ( for the short term anyway) But the 2 points above will likely be beyond the ability of the government to paper over.
In the 80’s and 90’s the government was not trying to actively prop up the housing market at all costs, now it is.
I think both points are actually tied to the bond market. As long as Obama and friends can convince people that they have a lovely new suit they can prop things up, but once the bond market decides they are naked interest rates for everything will jump up
According to CNBC apparently Mr. Dodd and Frank are sending a letter to Mr. Bernanke this afternoon requesting that banks be forced to implement an emergency freeze on credit card interest rates.
Things heating up in the BAC/MER merger investigation.(pdf warning) NY AG has Paulson saying the strong arming was at Bernanke’s request.
Is someone trying to force big Ben out?
#76 kettle: So sellers will sit with their houses on the market for years?
We have seen serious declines in prices in Cal among other states ( I undestand more new construction is part of it), I would think that with the wall st/pharma melt down here, (not to mention all of the other industries that are being hammered) we should be seeing somewhat similar declines.
We are seeing price declines of 20 to 25% for Manhattan coops/condos from last summer.
And yet the askiing price for many of the proverbial POS capes in every day north Jesey towns has declined to maybe $479K. And it sits and rots on the market.
Makes no sense.
As a follow-up to #78 - How is this not front page?
While it’s not a great market, there is a great opporunity to buy a home- you just have to be smart about it. A smart buyer not only has a great agent, but thier own inspector. You have to know all the reasons a Home is on the market.
Check out: http://AccurateInspections.com/nj-home
for some great advice
Tosh (80) -
This is the probably the answer to your question -
“The New Financial Overlords: The Debt Class and those that provide the Debt in Serfdom. Understanding the new Structure of the American Financial Landscape.”
The current administration has two widely respected financial experts in Paul Volcker and Elizabeth Warren. They should unleash both of them on the current financial industry. Last I heard is they are putting Volcker on the task of reforming the tax code which is incredibly important. But why not have him tackling the current banking crisis as well? He can walk and chew gum. Also, Elizabeth Warren showed up on The Daily Show and said all the right things. Yet when John Stewart asked her what her power was, she really couldn’t say. All she could say is “I’ll talk about it.” What use is transparency without the ability to act on what you find? Now I realize a fiscal problem 30 years in the making won’t be fixed in 3 months, but I hope we start seeing some progress in protecting the American people because ultimately, we are all going to pay if we continue down this path.
http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/financial-overlords-the-debt-class-and-those-that-provide-the-debt-in-serfdom-understanding-the-new-structure-of-the-american-financial/
HouseHunter (73) - Thanks for the link.
3b… one possible reason why prices are not going down fast
People like clot seem to suggest to wait than putting in ridiculously low ball offers [clot can correct me if I am misinterpreting his suggestions]. So, when a seller sees no offers , there is essentially no activity. On the other hand, if they see a deluge of low ball offers, there may be some movement.
Not saying one way or other is better, but trying to explain one factor that is holding off the steep fall in prices [of course, low interest rates, buyer incentives, etc., also hold off the steep fall, and probably are much more important factors].
3B,
My experience may not be representative, but i know a few people who are back holders and either bought near peak or pulled out a significant amount of equity.
Most of these people are already in trouble but living off of cash reserves, available credit lines and help from family and friends. If what I am seeing is in any way representative then we will likely see a sudden and rapid drop similar to CA, but the timing will depend on how long people can continue to pull from other sources. My personal guess is late 09 to mid 2010. Every where I turn, from towns like mendham to towns like Summerville you can see people stretching to hang on, on the hope that the “recession” will be over soon.
Remember that this is not a traditional bubble burst or recession. As BC Bob says, we are seeing the end of an economic model. This doesnt happen very often and i doubt that anyone has a very clear view on how it proceeds on a micro scale, especially considering the level of government influence
#82 - Thanks for the link.
Elizabeth Warren showed up on The Daily Show and said all the right things.
Yes, she did. I had heard her before on Fresh Air about 2 years ago and had forgotten about it until her TDS interview. She was intelligent, personable, likable and clear spoken. Given what she was saying, in general, about the solvency of major US banking institutions that is a dangerous combination. I’m fully expecting some dirt to appear if she keeps it up.
[81] gale,
IMHO, a home inspector is only useful for generating a report that you can rely on for terminating a deal or for providing another pocket to sue when you discover something awful that he should have discovered but didn’t.
I generally have a dim view of them. First off, they don’t tell me anything I can’t find out in a book or website. One even told me that he didn’t want my business after I started asking some questions of him about what he would look for.
Since they all pretty much are useless, I recommend that any buyer (1) educate themselves; (2) go on the HI visit; and (3) ask LOTS of questions of the HI. Tons of them. If something doesn’t look right, get the HI to focus on it and tell you what the issue is (or isn’t). Even if something does look right, if it is mechanical or electrical systems, get the HI to tell you whether or not it meets the code.
Further, I would insist that an HI actually go on or to the roof (and you should too, if you can).
HIs won’t inspect closed up spaces, but you can open them and then demand that they look. Bring your own tools and open things that you can open without damaging anything, and then ask the HI to inspect. Like crawlspaces that are boarded up—unscrew the board and have a look. Peel back insulation and ask the HI to evaluate. Pull back undergrowth and ask the HI to look.
HIs won’t do anything that could cause damage, like probe for rot, but you are not so restricted. Bang on sketchy joists with a flathead screwdriver (termite check) and use the screwdriver to probe trim for rot that may be painted over (latex paint hides a lot of leaks and damage). For each deficiency you find, tell the HI about it and tell him that you want to see it noted in the report.
The HI will be pissed off that you are making him do so much work but what do you care?
Also, if you bring in separate pest inspectors, HVAC, etc., do the same with them.
This will double everyone’s work time but you will be glad if you find things beforehand.
I suggest that anyone going along (1) wear old clothes, (2) bring their own flashlight with fresh batteries, and (3) bring tools (flat and phillips screwdrivers at a minimum).
3b re house at #49.
Now that I look closer, that house looks perfect for a fan of Bauhaus.
“California Plans Record $6.9 Billion Build America Bond Deal”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601015&sid=aeTSo.tSp5kg&refer=munibonds
-California plans to raise about $6.9 billion today in the largest long-term general obligation bond sale in the state’s 158-year history, aided by a federal subsidy program introduced in the federal stimulus package
Wow, if Bernanke was telling CEOs not to disclose material info to shareholders, then he’s got a big problem. He’ll have to print money twice as fast to keep his job.
[86] redux,
BTW, the seller’s agent won’t take kindly to your forays into nearly every nook and cranny of the house. They will find it outrageously intrusive. And when they speak up, ask them “are you interested in selling this house?” When they say yes, but, cut them off and tell them “but nothing.”
CalculatedRisk has Cuomo’s letter to Congress up. This is high drama folks!
/speculation - Summers working to oust B ?
#84 kettle:My personal guess is late 09 to mid 2010.
That would be my thought too (although that is what I thought last year) many that have got 1 year severance pay have or will be exhausting that over the next several months.
Plus coupled with the fact that people will see even with the election of O, this is not your run of the mill recession, and it won’t be over, even when it is officially declared over.
Still pretty amazing though that prices in Manhattan have dropped quickly and by a substanial amount, vs. north Jersey.
More denial appears to be the case in our leafy north Jersey suburbs.
Can someone confirm for me that new construction (materials and labor) is not subject to sales tax? At a client right now and he says that he’s getting some quotes that are including sales tax for cabinets and appliances for his new home that is under construction.
Thanks
Tosh,
Hahaha, when the rats start going after each other you know the duct tape and string holding this house of cards together is about to collapse.
My Sister-in-law’s husband is a roofer.
When confronted about him making less then 240$ a week last month he said that the winter was slow and that things would pick up in the summer.
You know, his work is seasonal…
I had to break to him the bad news, housing had bust, new construction was non-existant. All those roofers doing new construction were now competing for his work. He will work part time through the entire summer.
Why would Summers try to oust Bernanke when he has been so pliable?
Well, could it be that Bernanke now has a conscience and trying to right the ship? Also, Summers has been in the news quite a lot lately with his connections to hedge funds et al.
I get a feeling that the situation is now getting out of control and the big guns know that this end is nearing. Rome is being looted for the last time.
re#70 MrDoughnut - better fact check that number, especially since HUD does not track the legal status of mortgages it insures.
Goldman Sachs Principal Transactions Update: 1 Billion Shares!
Posted by Tyler Durden at 12:53 PM
This is getting surreal. Goldman principal program trading is now well over 5x compared to its customer and agency trades and a 150 million share pick up compared to last week. For yet another week, Goldman’s principal trading represents more than half of all NYSE member firm principal transactions.
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/04/goldman-sachs-principal-transactions_23.html
GS is holding the rally together
Even Better, look at the wealthy execs confidence in this rally:
http://online.barrons.com/edition/resources/media/b-insider.gif
#91
How could anyone buy any financial instrument with this type of manipulation going on behind the scenes.
93
Material is subject to sales tax unless it is a tax exempt job such as a church, goverment work, etc. I have no idea about labor.
All those roofers doing new construction were now competing for his work
We recently needed a few things done around the house; a few big trees cut down and a large section of fence replaced. We had contractors practically begging for the work and aggressively cutting prices to get out business.
Even a year ago, we had trouble getting calls returned about a retaining wall we needed fixed. One smug pr!ck who did call back said that we would give us an estimate for a $250 fee because giving estimates was too much trouble for him (his business was a mile from our home).
#96 - Why would Summers try to oust Bernanke when he has been so pliable?
Purely guessing on my part.
Does anybody know a good discount furniture place in NJ (preferably northern jersey, but central would be fine as well)?
Thanks in advance!
Would you feel safer having your cash at Chase or in a Schwab Bank account?
RE: 85, etc. on Elizabeth Warren.
Saw a video of her talking about how the middle class has been getting squeezed over the past 30 years. Been a big fan ever since.
http://soyouthinkyoucaninvest.blogspot.com/2009/04/elizabeth-warren-coming-collapse-of.html
Highly recommended viewing…
AT&T pulls the plug on CallVantage phone service
Well, I need to look for another phone service provider.
re 106,
Keep up that talk and she might get Freddie Mac’d
Nom (90),
Let ‘em protest. People will fill dead air with amazing things during awkward silences. Desparate relators in particular seem prone to this.
welcome Victorian
Tosh, Vic
You really have to wonder whats going on. it looks like the big dogs in the administration might be fighting and at the same time there is some intriguing behavior going on in the IMF which is essentially run by the US and UK/EU.
A fight for the last spot on the life boat?
[109] relo,
I am a bagholder now, but that was for the benefit of those on the board.
And one cannot catch everything. I did precisely what I suggested, and I am still discovering hidden items that, had I known about them, might have led me to ding the house (or get a lot of cash off). But it gets you out of some potentially major issues as longtime readers of my posts may recall.
Okay, enough of this. Back to work for me.
re #91 Tosh - Shotgun marriages usually end with familicide.
Shareholder lawsuits will drag on for decades.
Ken Lewis is going to have to face the shareholders soon since the meeting is on the 29th.
Even a year ago, we had trouble getting calls returned about a retaining wall we needed fixed.
My brother does contract work as a Master Electrician. I asked him how work was going and he said, “good except now I’m doing the things I wouldn’t want to do to keep working.”
When I asked him further he said, “well, normally I would put holes in drywall trying to install electrical wire and then I would turn to the homeowner and tell them to get a painter to repair the damage. Now I’m so desperate for work I will put in bids that include the drywall repair. I’m doing carpentry, drywall, electrical work, everything…you name it, I’m doing it”
#73
One of Dr. HousingBubble’s many great points:
“this is one key point I want to drive home to all the bottom dwellers. Until you stabilize the employment situation, you can focus all you want on mortgages and cheap credit but what use is that when people are struggling to find employment? You’re going to make your mortgage payment with a $300 weekly unemployment check?”
Why would Summers try to oust Bernanke when he has been so pliable?
Could it be that Ben is thinking of raising rates to combat inflation around the corner?
Just how dense is Lesniak?
The incident has unnerved him, however, and Monday was the first night since the burglary happened that Lesniak slept in his home of 20 years.
“It is still difficult for me,” he said. “I’m not used to being concerned about my safety. I was born in Elizabeth, raised there. It’s a wake-up call.”
So over a 20 year period, the senior senator did not notice that the area has gone completely to sh1t???
#111 - ket - Agreed, there seems to be all sorts of stuff going on behind the scenes that we don’t, and may never, know about.
#78
Cuomo is a stud right now.
It makes sense to me that the gov’t needed to step in to prevent total systemic collapse, but their execution has been piss poor. They need to decide once and for all whether they want to run these businesses as gov’t entities or whether they want them to remain in private control. From Cuomo’s letter, it appears as though Bernanke and Paulson strongarmed Lewis into violating his fiduciary duties and to potentially committing fraud. Similar stuff seems to be going on right now with the attempt to pressure secured lenders to give up their contractual rights with respect to the automakers. There are legal means for the gov’t to stabilize the economy but increasingly it seems the people in high positions opt to ignore the law and make up their own rules. This is completely unacceptable.
Sas, we have the black helicopters close by.
The Navy tonight will end secret special operations training that began earlier this week by a visiting elite Navy team.
The training involves two large prop planes. The noise from plane prompted resident complaints.
Residents say they are kept awake by an aircraft that circles as late as 1:30 a.m.
Officials will not reveal what Naval Special Warfare teams are doing, citing national security issues.
http://keysnews.com/node/12582
#119 - Nicely said skep. I’ll, once again, wait and see what the law will do in this matter. I also don’t want to jump ahead of myself, but deep in my gun lovin’ libertarian heart the thought of both Paulson & Bernanke on trial for fraud/conspiracy to commit same, gives me wood.
I am pooped this take your kids to work day it tiring!!!! Ok I admit gifting takes cojones, but DMV can only guess low price for a complete POS, so if a bent frame late model Beemer, goes for 12K and you paid 24K that is the amount you can put it down for safely. My whole problem is I don’t understand why we have to pay sales tax twice on a car, the tax was paid when it was new, why again, also if I am a dummy and overpay for car, I am nailed twice, once when I overpay and once when I pay sales tax on inflated amount. The auctions are superstrict now on sales tax. I could only pay with a check on dealer stock with a dealer number and auction sent transactions to IRS to reconcile with cars.
tosh 121
i would campout on a side walk for a week to get tickets to the trial!
You know what else doesn’t make sense John? In Maryland every employee of a buisness has to have unemployment insurance.
If you are a small buisness owner with one employee then you have to have unemployment insurance on you and your employee. Say you lay off your employee, he gets unemployment benefits. Now it is just you, you still are paying unemployment benefits for yourself.
Are you supposed to lay yourself off to collect unemployment? How exactly is that done? “I’m sorry self, I’m going to have to let you go, permanently.”
There is no way to collect unemployment because the owner cannot put himself out of work but yet he still must have unemployment insurance.
re: #121 - it seems there is a large organized protest being setup on April 28th against BOA, a day before the shareholder meeting on the 29th.
moveon.org being the notable a 501(c) involved.
http://takebacktheeconomy.org/
Wonder if there is going to be a bank run?
Fed Reports Over 30% Loss On Bear Stearns Mortgage Loans
Posted by Tyler Durden at 3:13 PM
Nothing like purchasing a major investment bank on the verge of bankruptcy with no due diligence (actually Ken Lewis would beg to differ). The Fed has reported a loss of 28% on its commercial mortgage loans and 38% on residential mortgage loans as a result of its participation in Maiden Lane, the Bear Stearns bail out vehicle.
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/04/fed-reports-over-30-loss-on-bear.html
let me draw your attention to something.
“AP Newsbreak: Pharmacy made mistake in horse drug”
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090423/ap_on_re_us/us_dead_polo_horses
there story is a cover up. yes, sadly these horses died, and its a god damn shame. however, the reason is because someone is sending.
team is owned by Victor Vargas, a Venezuelan multimillionaire.
http://www.palmbeachdailynews.com/news/content/sports/2009/04/20/pbppoloside0420.html
the reason is because someone is sending….someone a message.
SAS
from the Onion
Treasury Department Issues Emergency Recall Of All Us Dollars
http://www.theonion.com/content/video/treasury_department_issues?utm_source=twittershare&utm_medium=twitter
SAS
these slackers cant even pull off the old horse head in the bed message anymore? what is wrong with modern criminals????
I have this “strange” feeling we are going to see huge one day drop in the weeks to come.
Make,
If there’s not a huge drop then you can safely say that the market is being held up completely by the government.
SRS bag holders, welcome to 26 on the way to 18.
Rockrose will buy back the apartment after five years at 110 percent of the purchase price, no questions asked.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090422/us_nm/us_usa_economy_housing
If they’re still in business
[124] Nicholas,
You say the owner cannot fire himself. There is a topic worth exploring. I think it is potentially possible to arrange it so the owner does fire himself (the active employee part of himself), collect unemployment for, say, 3 months, then get rehired.
The owner may remain as an owner but not work (and therefore may also avoid withholding on earnings as they are not salary).
This can occur during the summer months for example.
I really think that this concept deserves exploration. I am not sure it flies but it could.
question for the board: when, if ever, does whole life insurance make sense? thanks
Nom,
Let me know what you find out because I have three unemployed brothers who pay unemployment for themselves but can’t collect.
Chrysler is toast
DETROIT — The Treasury Department is preparing a Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing for Chrysler that could come as soon as next week, people with direct knowledge of the action said Thursday.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/24/business/24chrysler.html?_r=1
GM and Chryselr both look to be in bankruptcy by june.
here comes the 2nd wave of unemployment!
It would be interesting to find out who is controlling the strings behind this Lewis disclosure.
Any interesting gossip, anyone? Dude, this beats Real Housewives of NJ!
[138] Nicholas,
I think it is a topic worth exploring, if either to arbitrage federal tax law against state benefits law, or to challenge what appears to be a draconian and unfair abuse, but by asking for advice, you have essentially set the first stake for defining an attorney-client relationship. Were I to respond, even gratuitously, I have established that relationship.
Please understand that this is my practice area, and without an engagement agreement my firm would take a dim view of any time or resources I devote to it.
That said, you may want to question your brothers about what they have learned and the basis for the conclusion that, as the business owners, they cannot collect. There may already be developed (and remarkably unfair IMHO) caselaw on this point.
If the answer isn’t satisfactory or clear, we can discuss how to proceed, but understand that, for several reasons, only one of which is greed (the rest are essentially self-preservation related), I could not give a reasoned, reliable answer without actually representing you or them.
[139] kettle,
I foresee a bad day at the corner of Wall and Broad tomorrow.
It’s all priced in!
3b says: “prices declined a lot faster during last decline in a much shorter period of time. This time the situation is far worse, and yet there is still this large disconnect in prices. It just does not make sense to me.”
3B: I agree, im so annoyed and scracthing my head every day. But i’m probably the worlds worst investor so as soon as i break down and buy my first home, you are guaranteed to immediately see prices plunge another 30% within two weeks.
Skep-tic,
Regarding whole life… Not long ago I read the following statement re why it’s not a good product:
The assumptions under which a whole life policy can make sense are so unusual that it fits nearly no one. Let’s look at them:
1) You must have a need for insurance. No sense in paying for something you don’t need, even if it comes with a mandatory “savings” plan.
2) You must have a permanent need for insurance. Most of our needs for life insurance go away sometime in our 50s.
3) You must make and save sufficient quantities of money that a large percentage of your investments are in a taxable account.
4) A large part of your estate at the time of your death must be subject to the estate tax.
5) You must have no liquidity needs for the money you put toward your whole life insurance policy. Borrowing from your policy can trigger tricky tax rules invalidating your policy.
6) You must be able to rebalance your investment accounts without touching the whole life policy cash value.
7) You must have relatively large amounts of money available to pay life insurance premiums early in your investing/saving career.
8 ) You must select a single, non-diversifiable insurance company that will not only be able to pay the death benefit in 75 years, but also will establish reasonable rates of growth for the cash value.
9) You must make the premium payments year in and year out for decades without fail, even during lean years.
10) Tax law must treat investments, insurance, and estates similarly in 30-60 years to how it does now.
11) Lastly, and most importantly, you must hold the policy for decades for it to work out. If you bail out early (like almost all policy-holders do) you won’t see the benefits.
skep,
Nix whole life. Buy term and sock away the difference. Buy insurance for insurance purposes, not a savings vehicle.
Skeptic:
Whole life makes sense if you are not good with saving and you need it automated by combining with Insurance. That convenience comes at a cost. If you are trying to minimize the cost of insurance, term life is the way to go. My advice is keep your insurance and savings separate.
skep,
You want to have some fun? Ask your agent what the split is, how much each payment goes towards the death benefit and how much goes into your savings. One of two things will occur. Either the agent’s or your head will be spinning.
BC is right, The extra cost of Universal and whole life go right into the pockets of the salesman. I got my insurance license a couple years ago. It was maybe the most useless thing i ever did. The only time i ever used it was to sell myself a term policy. So thanks for asking insurance questions, I thought this topic would never come up again.
skep-tic says:
April 23, 2009 at 4:28 pm
question for the board: when, if ever, does whole life insurance make sense? thanks
skep: Generally I would say Estate Planning, where the policy is held inside an Irrevocable Life Insurance Trust with a non-spouse beneficiary, or other applications for business purposes. Ultimately insurance and annuity products can also be beneficial for high-net-worth people who have maxed out all other available tax-deferral options.
If you are under-40 and are just some schmuck, you should buy a term policy. However, if you fear being uninsurable in the future, then you should buy a term policy that has a guaranteed convert to whole feature.
Bottom line: if you are working with a provider, you are not a clear candidate for whole life insurance, AND YET they push you to buy such a policy over equivalent term….. WITHOUT a good reason……French Connection UK the guy….then call me ;-)
Frank,
Loaded up a little more SRS today. I am jacked up thinking of all these commercial spaces that dealers will vacate.
I probably have more riding on SRS then you make in 5 yrs.
veto do you agree with me?
skep….go use veto! Veto, give half the cut to grim for the website.
Sorry…I didn’t see all the answers to skep before I posted. I don’t think I really added anything of value.
thanks for the responses re: whole life insurance. I had a vague idea that it is not worthwhile for most people, but did not understand all of the details. FWIW, my recently deceased grandfather had a decent estate (unfortunately for me, split among many heirs) and he had a whole life policy as a component, which made me wonder about it as he was an astute guy and I had heard these things were generally duds.
[151] chifi,
I may just call you. You can let me know then what your minimums are.
Re: Cuomo, Lewis, Paulson, BoA, Merrill etc - what a swamp of sludge. That’s it. I’m done. Why would anyone even test the waters in this market?? It’s too much for me. You’d have to be so far up the insider loop that the only light you’d see would be from a colonoscopy. Count me out of everything except cat food and canned beans til the next administration. And bring on the perp walks! I want to see orange jumpsuits, LOTS of them.
Outofstater: “Count me out of everything except cat food and canned beans til the next administration.”
Something similar to previous administration? Something drastically different from previous and current administrations? Who do you have in mind?
S
cbs news just said the AVERAGE CC debt in America is 10k.
can that possibly be true?
Corzine has another new buddy. His name is Hugo.
“Venezuela will give a 300-acre island in the Delaware River to the state of New Jersey, the governor’s office announced.
The Venezuelan-owned Citgo Petroleum Corp. had bought Petty’s Island — between Camden, New Jersey, and Philadelphia, Pennsylvania — to use as a fuel storage facility.
The island is home to a pair of American bald eagles as well as several great blue herons and state-endangered black-crowned night herons, New Jersey Gov. Jon S. Corzine said in a news release Wednesday.
Venezuelan leader Hugo Chavez announced the island’s transfer as part of Wednesday’s Earth Day celebrations. Plans are being finalized for the transition, which will not occur before 2020, Corzine’s office said.
“Earth Day is a fitting time to consummate the donation of this special place,” Corzine said in the news release. “Petty’s Island has become an important home to bald eagles, kestrels and a wide variety of waterfowl. We are opening a new chapter in the island’s long history by restoring it and giving it back to nature and the people of New Jersey.”
Of course, Citgo and Chavez get to reduce their NJ and federal taxes as well, and NJ gets a nice new piece of (heavily polluted) sand.
[159] yikes
Absolutely. Every month, the Deplumes probably average about $3500-4000. We pay it off, but that isn’t much of an inferential leap to 10K and those that can’t pay it off.
gun tales from dick’s sporting goods:
was buying a net for the outdoor basketball hoop and figured i’d pick up some bullets. when in rome …
of course they’re out of 40 cal home protection. also out of 40 cal range bullets. so i ask the guy what’s up:
- he said he gets about 3 calls an hour (out here in the bucks county sticks) asking if a new shipment came in
- everytime shipments come, the bullets are sold out THAT DAY. he said he wasn’t kidding.
- he said the big fear (among bullet buyers) is that “the administration” is going to put serial #’s on individual bullets, which would send their value through the roof (and prices up). i have heard nothing about this - probably pennsyltuckians just panicking.
#158 You, if you’ll let the free market be free.
yikes,
yes, the average US household currently carries about 20K in consumer debt
look at the second chart, data is from the ST Louis FED
http://www.scribd.com/full/14565800?access_key=key-196bmictvoe5nmjr26wl
Quick question for the NJ RE transaction savvy here. Who is responsible for well water test fees? Seller or buyer?
hubba (165)-
The law is actually silent as to who pays. However, the boilerplate NJAR contract form has the seller paying. Some proprietary company contract forms are also this way.
plume (160)-
Where can I go to find out how we can give Corzine to Chavez? Maybe we can make him a sort of permanent hostage there.
“Venezuela will give a 300-acre island in the Delaware River to the state of New Jersey, the governor’s office announced.”
Doesn’t help that both these teams suck eggs, either:
(ESPN, 4-23-09): NEW YORK -”Baseball commissioner Bud Selig says the New York Yankees and Mets will be discussing whether to adjust their ticket prices after seeing premium seats remain empty at their new ballparks.
Speaking Thursday to the Associated Press Sports Editors, Selig said it was an issue for the teams to decide, not Major League Baseball, and that he wouldn’t make any recommendation.
The Yankees are charging $500-$2,625 for Legends Suite tickets in 25 sections at the new Yankee Stadium in the first nine rows around the infield, an area that contains 1,895 seats.
The Mets are charging an average of $175-$495 for 1,567 seats in the Delta Club, which includes 20 rows between the dugouts.”
The Wail of the 1%
As the privileged class loses its privileges, a collective moan rises from the canyons of Wall Street.
It was in this environment that DeSantis sent his remarkable resignation letter to the New York Times. In the letter, which ran as an op-ed on March 25, he compared himself to a plumber (“None of us should be cheated of our payments any more than a plumber should be cheated after he has fixed the pipes but a careless electrician causes a fire that burns down the house”) and announced that he would quit AIG and donate his bonus to charity. The letter, passionate and wounded and oddly out of touch with ordinary Americans, put a human face on Wall Street’s anger. When DeSantis arrived at the office the morning his letter appeared in the paper, the AIG traders gave him a standing ovation. In some quarters of the press, he was vilified. (As Frank Rich put it in the Times, “He didn’t seem to understand that his … $742,006.40 (net) would have amounted to $0 had American taxpayers not ponied up more than $170 billion to keep AIG from dying.”) But the fracas was useful: DeSantis had succeeded in opening up an honest conversation—as typically emotional and awkward and neurotically charged as is any conversation on the subject—about money, the first this town has had in years.
For Housing Crisis, the End Probably Isn’t Near
I’ll confess that this bearish picture isn’t exactly what I had hoped to find. A year ago, as part of a move from New York to Washington, my wife and I bought our first house. We did so fully expecting prices to continue falling (though perhaps not as much as they ultimately will, given the severity of the financial crisis). But we decided they had fallen enough for us to take the plunge. We preferred buying before the bottom of the market instead of renting and having to move again in a year or two.
Still, when I wrote about that decision last spring, I argued that anyone who didn’t have to move probably should not buy yet. Prices still had a way to fall.
They don’t have as far to fall today, but the great real estate crash is not over, either. So if you are part of the 30 percent of American households who rent and you’re trying to decide when to buy, relax.
How economics lost sight of real world
Economists, like physicists, have been searching for a theory of everything. If there were to be such an economic theory, there is really only one candidate, based on extreme rationality and market efficiency. Any other theory would have to account for the evolution of individual beliefs and the advance of human knowledge, and no one imagines that there could be a single theory of all human behaviour. Not quite no one: a few deranged practitioners of the project believe that their theory really does account for all human behaviour, and that concepts such as goodness, beauty and truth are sloppy sociological constructs.
But these people discredit themselves by opening their mouths. That people respond rationally to incentives, and that market prices incorporate information about the world, are not terrible assumptions. But they are not universal truths either. Much of what creates profit opportunities and causes instability in the global economy results from the failure of these assumptions. Herd behaviour, asset mispricing and grossly imperfect information have led us to where we are today.
Hearing Offers Solutions for ‘Too Big to Fail’ Problem
The panelists all conveyed a sense of urgency that the federal government be given this resolution authority as quickly as possible – the cost to taxpayers would be too high otherwise. The only real question is why former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson didn’t ask for this authority in March of 2008, when Bear Stearns collapsed.
While our panelists were generally supportive of the proposed Treasury legislation, professor Simon Johnson noted that we should consider including certain protections for workers that are in the bankruptcy code.
The witnesses also raised and were supportive of the need for new prohibitions against predatory practices in financial services, such as large credit card fees or changes in interest rates on existing balances, or exorbitant fees on checking and savings accounts. The Credit Card Bill of Rights, a bill that I introduced, addresses many of these issues and is being voted on the Financial Services Committee tomorrow.
Professor Joseph Stiglitz made a compelling case that we underestimate the positive impact of removing these kinds of predatory practices by only looking at potential reductions in the supply of credit when these practices are prohibited. As he noted, reducing fees and eliminating predatory practices will encourage creditworthy consumers to borrow and to buy goods and services, which will help the economy recover from the current downturn.
#166
Thnx Clot
Analyst: N.J. homes won’t see 2005 prices until 2020
Prices are declining at about 1 percent a month and will continue to fall for the rest of the year, said Jeffrey Otteau, of Otteau Valuation Group, at a home builders convention in Atlantic City.
Star-Ledger file
And while it’s a good time for buyers, with houses deemed more affordable than they’ve been in years, fewer people will be able to come up with a 20 percent down payment they might need, he said.
Fewer people moving forward will decide they want to - or are able to - own homes as New Jersey enters what Rutgers University professor Joseph Seneca termed a “new normal” for the state
Traitor nom deplume says:
April 23, 2009 at 5:50 pm
[151] chifi, I may just call you. You can let me know then what your minimums are.
nom: IQ must be at least 125
skep-tic says:
April 23, 2009 at 5:42 pm
thanks for the responses re: whole life insurance. I had a vague idea that it is not worthwhile for most people, but did not understand all of the details. FWIW, my recently deceased grandfather had a decent estate (unfortunately for me, split among many heirs) and he had a whole life policy as a component, which made me wonder about it as he was an astute guy and I had heard these things were generally duds.
skep: He may have had a pool of money that he decided to leave to heirs. He went to an insurance guy and had them set up the trust which kept the proceeds out of his estate. He paid a lump-sum premium in one shot (i.e. the pool of money) for the greatest amount of coverage he could find to be underwritten. Before the Bush tax policies were put in force, it was standard practice to plan in this way with money that you wanted to ensure was given away.
SG- from that article (sic) “You can’t live in New York on 75,000 and send your kids to school” I couldn’t copy and paste it.
I get so angry with statements like that. Most people earn less than 75K in and around NY. If you make more then that then great. Too often I hear/read though that the problem was when people that didn’t earn that much caused the problem by over extending.
You should be able to live in NY and anywhere in the US on 75K. You should be able to educate your children, get healthcare, feed and clothe your family. If we all acknowledge that you cannot do so on an average salary, then the problem is societal. The classism that this creates is almost insurmountable. For every “I made myself from nothing story” there are 1000’s who just won’t. Not out of laziness, dumbness, or lack of effort and simply because as a society we don’t value people. We value money, profit and posessions.
“Fewer people moving forward will decide they want to - or are able to - own homes as New Jersey enters what Rutgers University professor Joseph Seneca termed a “new normal” for the state”
At the ASP Convention Center it’s called; “everything that dies someday comes back”
First time buyers are jumping into to the market according to NPR….the requests for starter homes and homes that can be purchased with ‘one’ income have replaced requests for wine cellars…..go figure.
Comp killer in Conn.
“Talk about deep discounts. The property downturn has wiped $50 million off the asking price of a single home in what may be the biggest cut ever on a U.S. house.”
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124024652556335513.html
listening to NPR/WNYC this morning,
they did a story on how a large number of the NJ school budgets passed. They had sound bites from a few different people saying that they voted for the budgets because they new that the increased taxes would end up helping to stabilize/increase the value of their home.
WHAT ARE THESE PEOPLE SMOKING?????? And where do i get some?
Public schools are going to become more important than ever as many folks pull their kids from private schools. A decent public school is still a relative bargain for locals.
silera (177)-
Can I have a glass of that whine?
DL,
here is the birds eye view of that estate is anyone is interested.
http://maps.live.com/default.aspx?v=2&FORM=LMLTCP&cp=qvjxgg8vv325&style=b&lvl=1&tilt=-90&dir=0&alt=-1000&phx=0&phy=0&phscl=1&scene=15419188&encType=1
The standard commission would net the RE agent about 3 million on that sale. Nice!
vodka (181)-
I think we’ve reached a critical mass of stupid.
Somebody might want to tell these people about the mass exodus from NJ that’s been going on for close to four years now.
I love it when I tell my sellers, pre-listing, that unless we price right there will be no showings. Why? Because there aren’t many buyers to begin with…and listings perceived as overshot don’t get one single look from anyone.
I want a pony.
Ref 177:
Kmart
Public School
Medicaid
What’s the problem?
clotypoo…..you should just go ahead and tell them….”Hey you know you live in a crappy home…in a crummy over priced state….you might as well move to Oklahoma or Canada….and I think your wife is ugly.”
Then sit back and wonder why you have no customers.
So anyway….did I say recently how much I love Jersey. I know it is out of fashion here…but damn I like this place. It MUST be the people.
DL,
Re Kmart,
One issue that is going to hit us as a nation is that we have been leveraging what is essentially slave labor in china to artificially depress prices, albeit at the cost of quality. As the current economic model continues to crumble, this leveraged position isnt going to work nearly as well as it used to. As a result we are going to see prices rise . The potential good side to that is that people may actually begin to demand higher quality in the goods they by as everyday purchases begin to take a bigger bite out of peoples budgets and credit becomes limited.
And on china. you have to love their qaulity. I was recently involved in addressing a fairly expensive little mishap where a company had to recall product becuase the metal they used in its production did not meet material spec and had an increased possibility of failure. The raw metal that was used had a material certification with it when purchased for manufacturing and was purchased from an american company. Turns out that the material was purchased from china and then resold with an american label.
The fun question is how was a material cert provided, when independent testing of the material showed that its real specs were way outside of tolerance and not even close to what the original material cert stated.
So who is going to supply the metal for all the new infrastructure work they want to do in the US?
182.Essex says:
April 24, 2009 at 7:15 am
Public schools are going to become more important than ever as many folks pull their kids from private schools. A decent public school is still a relative bargain for locals.
You are forgetting that a Private School is Pay as you Go, a Public School is Pay till you Die.
191….uh…yeah. If you plan to retire here than you are truly confused.
sx (188)-
Why have people queued up to eat crap food at Le Cirque & Four Seasons for 30-40 years? Unless you’re a celeb, you get abused at the door by the maitre d’, seated in Siberia and served by a waiter who practically brings a stopwatch to your table.
Abuse sells. The more you deny many people something, the more they want it.
Business is fine, BTW. Foreclosures and short sales are up. Way up.
sx (188)-
It’s usually the ugly wife with whom I’m dealing these days. Hubby has most likely lost his job, maxed out the cc’s, etc before I ever get called in.
Funny thing is, the wife will put up with gumades, cc debt, expensive hobbies- you name it- but when the job and income go, that’s it. It seems the marriage only goes about another three weeks before the divorce filing comes and I get the call.
sx (192)-
What decent place to live chases off its old people?
Where else on Earth does this happen?
For a welfare state, we sure are nasty. France, we’re not.
Ket: For a high school janitor ;-), you put most on this board to shame. I wasn’t trying to single out Kmart, only that there are places where inexpensive clothes can be bought. I agree with your point about leveraging inexpensive labor and the consequences if there are quality problems. But if China doesn’t improve, nations like the US that have outsourced their labor will find another source. Here in euroland, you can’t buy anything made of cloth that doesn’t come from Turkey or an eastern European country, so there are alternatives.
Cindy, i hope you and anyone else who reads this blog in LA don’t live in this county
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/04/21/BAK9176EGO.DTL&tsp=1
Misdemeanors such as assaults, thefts and burglaries will no longer be prosecuted in Contra Costa County because of budget cuts, the county’s top prosecutor said Tuesday.
District Attorney Robert Kochly also said that beginning May 4, his office will no longer prosecute felony drug cases involving smaller amounts of narcotics. That means anyone caught with less than a gram of methamphetamine or cocaine, less than 0.5 grams of heroin and fewer than five pills of ecstasy, OxyContin or Vicodin won’t be charged.
Serial deadbeat Donald Trump on Squawk, telling us lenders need to get back to “making decent loans to decent people”.
Anybody else see the irony here?
What a fcuking sociopath.
drat; moderated 198. Could it be the use of the Tr^mp word?
yikes (197)-
My kind of town. :)
Somebody needs to tell Mish it’s not securities fraud when the Sec’y of Treasury and Fed chairman do it:
“New York State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo’s letter to the SEC and Senate Banking Committee on the Bank of America, Merrill Lynch Merger provides strong evidence of coercion to commit securities fraud by former Treasury Secretary Paulson and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, and actual securities fraud by Bank of America CEO Kenneth D. Lewis.
At issue is Lewis’s decision to back away from the merger deal with Merrill Lynch on a MAC (material adverse change) clause because of rapidly deteriorating conditions at Merrill Lynch. Here are a few pertinent snips from Cuomo’s letter.”
[snip]
“At a meeting that evening Secretary Paulson, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, Lewis, Bank of America’s CFO, and other officials discussed the issues surrounding invocation of the MAC clause by Bank of America. The Federal officials asked Bank of America not to invoke the MAC until there was further consultation. There were follow-up calls with various Treasury and Federal Reserve officials, including with Treasury Secretary Paulson and Chairman Bernanke. During those meetings, the federal government officials pressured Bank of America not to seek to rescind the merger agreement. We do not yet have a complete picture of the Federal Reserve’s role in these matters because the Federal Reserve has invoked the bank examination privilege.
Bank of America’s attempt to exit the merger came to a halt on December 21, 2008. That day, Lewis informed Secretary Paulson that Bank of America still wanted to exit the merger agreement. According to Lewis, Secretary Paulson then advised Lewis that, if Bank of America invoked the MAC, its management and Board would be replaced.”
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
Think they don’t have money troubles in England? Now the EPL want Rangers & Celtic to pay-to-play (200 mm pounds) with them:
“Amid the speculation that Bolton Wanderers chief Phil Gartside is set to unveil plans for a new controversial two-tier set-up to include Rangers and Celtic in the Premier League, outspoken Crystal Palace chairman Simon Jordan claimed the Old Firm should pay £100m to move south.
Jordon said: “Football is evolving all the time and this would be great for the Scottish clubs but they should pay to come down. I’d suggest £100m and the immediate financial benefits that arise for both clubs would soon cover it.”
Proposals for the Glasgow giants to join the English league are nothing new, but Gartside’s plan for two leagues of 18 also reflects the fears many Premier League clubs have over the financial costs of relegation.
However, there are a significant number of obstacles to overcome, including the approval of the Football Association, their Scottish counterparts, the Football League and UEFA. Also, TV broadcast rights are not up for renewal until 2013.”
Of course, plenty of people in England saw this coming five years ago. Not ironically, the biggest debt-meisters are Americans:
(ESPN)- “Imagine a world where neither the Glazer family nor Messrs Tom Hicks and George Gillett had anything to do with Manchester United or Liverpool.
Malcolm Glazer’s takeover at Man Utd would not have been allowed had hew recommendations been in force
That utopian dream world for some supporters could have been a reality had new recommendations from the UK’s All-Party Football Group been introduced ahead of the controversial debt-laden takeovers at Old Trafford and Anfield.
This week the parliamentary group, which comprises 150 MPs from the House of Commons and peers from the House of Lords, called for stringent new rules to prevent prospective owners saddling clubs with exorbitant levels of debt, and for loans from wealthy owners to be classed as debt and not largely ignored.
The All Party Football Group rose to something approaching prominence in 2004 when it published its first report into football and its finances; a Whitehall reaction to the seemingly endemic culture of financial mismanagement in the game - which had led to a worrying trend of clubs narrowly avoiding oblivion by going into administration.
The MPs’ main recommendation was that football in the UK needed to take a long hard look at itself and gets its house in order.
There were calls for tighter corporate governance, greater redistribution of wealth and for clubs to remember and respect their historic role as community assets at a time when globalisation had transformed many into world renowned brands.”
When I retire I wanna be somewhere warm and cheap. Language / politics not an issue so I could easily live on the Gulf Coast.
193/194…True genius. No truer words ever spoken.
Clotpoll, or any other Hunterdon county people.
What’s the deal with MLS 2576029?
That place has been on the market for a long time and seems like a lot of house for the money
#180 DL: My retired NYC Corrections Officer Cousin (retired at 40), works security at the house. $25 an hour, for basically doing nothing.
He says the house needs a ton of work.
#181 kettle: That is exactly what I said the other day. That is the reason so many voted yes, in a vain attempt to keep their prices high.
There is no regards for leaving the legacy of high property taxes to the next generation, to the same children that many say they hope will settle down in the town, when they marry and have children.
Yes we did it for you.
re#203 Essex - retirement
Chile sounds like a good destination
If things go that badly it might be the place to go -
It has a Mediterranean climate good wines, it has low perception of corruption and comparatively low poverty rates, 98 % literacy rate.It also ranks high regionally in freedom of the press and democratic development.
Most of all they use sound monetary policy, and are net savers.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aKqLXbopcqLA&refer=home
X-
Was originally listed for 499, on market since 9/2008 is now short sale supposedly approved for offers over 375 ? Address
1 Alles Court
Sold 360 7/2000
Sold 425 12/2002
KL
thanks rhymingrealtor,
Things might still be moving in Bergen cty, but it’s a different story here. Welcome to 2010 pricing.
#190 kettle: In finishing our conversation from yesterday.
How do you explain the 25% drop in Manhattan apartment prices from the Summer of 2008 to now, vs. the seemingly very small drop in house prices in north Jesey during the same period?
It makes no sense to me.
If you think AIG will keep getting bailed out - bond of the day!
AMERICAN GENL FIN CP MTN 5.400% 12/01/2015
Basic Analytics
Price (Ask) 38.875
Yield to Worst (Ask) 24.586%
02635PTC7
The end is nigh….
Headline
S.C. woman says she sees Jesus Christ in her cheese toast
211 Collusion?
The end is nigh….
Subject line of a piece of spam…
Enjoy the weekend by stocking up on all our medications
3b, maybe just less of a ’stupid factor’ in manhattan.
Silera says:
April 23, 2009 at 11:15 pm
The classism that this creates is almost insurmountable. For every “I made myself from nothing story” there are 1000’s who just won’t. Not out of laziness, dumbness, or lack of effort and simply because as a society we don’t value people. We value money, profit and posessions.
Sil: From my perspective, your comment has a grain of truth, but it’s mixed in with a whole bunch’o-stuff with which I will take serious issue…..
kettle1 says:
April 24, 2009 at 7:10 am
listening to NPR/WNYC this morning,
they did a story on how a large number of the NJ school budgets passed. They had sound bites from a few different people saying that they voted for the budgets because they new that the increased taxes would end up helping to stabilize/increase the value of their home.
ket: how about a Fresca?
3b says:
April 24, 2009 at 8:55 am
#190 kettle: In finishing our conversation from yesterday.
How do you explain the 25% drop in Manhattan apartment prices from the Summer of 2008 to now, vs. the seemingly very small drop in house prices in north Jesey during the same period?
It makes no sense to me.
I’d say it is due to fact that very few people can really afford 1,000,000+ studio apartments.
So Manhattan is falling hard.
In NJ you have a lot of 300-500K “starter” homes - they are more “affordable” - also unrealistically priced.
Consider is like this:
A person never skied before: goes on top of 1 mile mountain.
Case one: He goes to double black diamond hill - gains tons of speed and rolls all the way to the bottom in one heap(or several pieces) - but he gets to the bottom fast - 5 minutes. Thats Manhattan
Case two - he goes onto a green slope - he falls a lot does not gain as much speed and it takes him over 3 hours to get down. Thats NJ for you.
P.S. Going from 1,000,000$ apartment into 750,000$ does not improve affordability for AVERAGE income person in NY state.
going down from 330K to 300K does improve affordability for AVERAGE person in NJ.
sx (205)-
There is only one true American genius.
His name is Chuck Barris.
The ‘credit crunch’: another Great Depression?
In the first part of his essay on the 1930s and today, Sean Collins puts the case for going beyond Keynesianism and monetarism and the obsession with finance to look at the deeper structural problems of capitalism.
by Sean Collins
# The easing of tensions following the end of the Cold War also gave the market system much more room to manoeuvre, without the need for destructive, cleansing recessions. This allowed capitalism to survive without traditional boom-bust cycles, otherwise known as the ‘Great Moderation’ and ‘SAD’ (stable, anaemic, durable) period. Many have welcomed that recessions became milder and less frequent, but the downside was that growth was muted. Another self-imposed constraint in this period are ‘green’ measures that restrict expansion.
# The wide expansion of credit, including debt-fuelled consumption, was not sustainable. No one could anticipate when the limit of the credit system would be reached. But now we know: it was precipitated by the US sub-prime crisis, with domino effects across finance and into other sectors.
# The problems in the productive sphere in the major economies continue today (and arguably more in the US and UK than in Germany and Japan). The ‘deleveraging’ effect from the credit crisis has not fully played out, and is likely to be destructive. In particular, the fallout from this severe asset-based recession will now curb both key drivers of previous 10 to 15 years of economic activity: bank lending/financial activity and consumer spending, leaving a question mark over future sources of growth.
like i said, more fraud has to be shaked out & purged if you want to see a return to a more healthy & free markets.
“Long Island Adviser Indicted in $413M Ponzi Scheme”
http://www.1010wins.com/Long-Island-Adviser-Indicted-in–413M-Ponzi-Scheme/4265951
SAS
The end is nigh…
Stockpocalypse at Balducci’s, Closing this Sunday
http://nymag.com/daily/food/2009/04/stockpocalypse_at_balduccis_cl.html?f=most-commented-24h-10
#219 AL: That is part of it, but even lots of the starter 500K condos in Manhattan have dropped dramatically as well.
Sean:
The end is nigh….
Depeche Mode Shut Down Hollywood Blvd
http://www.rollingstone.com/rockdaily/index.php/2009/04/24/depeche-mode-shut-down-hollywood-blvd-for-kimmel/
U of C apparently has a liberal view of what it considers ethical behavior:
“Ironically, it was telling the truth about his law school grades that got Loren Friedman into trouble.
When he circulated his resumé, via a legal recruiter, to law firms in Illinois in 2007, he attached a copy of his University of Chicago Law School transcript. Seeing the proliferation of C grades on it, a partner at Sidley Austin wondered how Friedman had been hired there as a summer associate in 2002. The answer, as Friedman has since admitted: He had altered his U of C transcript, routinely whiting out his C grades and changing them to B grades, to get a summer job at Sidley, reports the Am Law Daily.
Friedman, who went on to clerk for a federal bankruptcy judge and work as a bankruptcy associate at Skadden Arps Slate Meagher & Flom in Delaware, and Curtis, Mallet-Prevost, Colt & Mosle in New York, self-reported the transcript issue to Illinois bar authorities after Sidley partners said they would do so if he didn’t. Now he is studying for a graduate degree in business management at the University of Illinois.
A lawyer arguing the case for the Illinois Attorney Registration and Disciplinary Commission had sought disbarment or an indefinite suspension of Friedman’s law license. However, his apparent remorse and strong testimonials from Friedman’s former law firm colleagues and classmates and friends helped persuade a hearing panel to recommend a three-year suspension instead, according to the Am Law Daily and the Legal Profession Blog. A final decision on the recommended suspension will be made by the Illinois Supreme Court.
In addition to altering his transcript by changing virtually every grade on it for the better, according to an IARDC report (PDF) filed yesterday, Friedman also failed to disclose in his U of C law school application that he had been dismissed from medical school because of poor academic performance. (He apologized for this omission to the law school dean in 2003.)
While still in law school, according to stipulated evidence discussed in the IARDC report, Friedman represented about seven paragraphs of another author’s work as his own in a paper submitted for a Law, Science and Medicine class in 2001. Friedman said it was a careless mistake and, believing it to be an isolated incident that didn’t rise to the level of intentional plagiarism, the law school dean did not convene a disciplinary committee.”
Apparently this guy made a lot of careless mistakes, and the folks at UofC agreed, not even calling him on the carpet for plagiarism.
If I were one of his former clients, I would be on the horn right now.
[175] chifi
“IQ must be 125″
Damn!
3B
How do you explain the 25% drop in Manhattan apartment prices from the Summer of 2008 to now, vs. the seemingly very small drop in house prices in north Jesey during the same period?
It makes no sense to me.
My guess (and its purely a guess); is that the collapse of wallstreet had an immediate impact in Manhattan. Who was bidding up the prices of apartments to nose bleed levels? A significant portion of the upwards momentum was generated both directly and indirectly from wall street incomes. Once those incomes collapsed (there are many anecdotal reports of the late 20 early 30’s banker crowd blowing their princely pay on their life style and depending on the annual bonus to make up the difference) and the 6 figure bonuses disappeared for a large number of people the driving force behind the nosebleed prices disappeared. On top of that there is a huge glut of apartments in Manhattan and there are still projects coming onto the market. There is a massive oversupply of apartments as nosebleed levels. Supply and Demand would dictate a fairly rapid price response downward.
We haven’t seen the same effect in NNJ for a few reasons. 1) SF Homes are not as liquid as apartments in Manhattan. You don’t have all the late 20/early 30 bankers trying to buy homes in Bergen or somerset. Some certainly were, but my guess is that the lions share preferred to be close to or in the city. 2) You don’t have the same glut of supply. Look at downtown, you have entire office buildings being converted into residential! The density of housing in Manhattan increases the supply effects of converting entire office buildings to residential. In NNJ it would be very difficult to replicate that effect. Yes, you could build several large developments on top of each other, but you are still no where near the supply density of the apartment building projects in Manhattan. Now combine the supply density effects with the prices that these projects were based on and you have a recipe for a precipitous price drop.
[226] redux
Further evidence for the general consensus that Skadden hires “the worst of the best.”
“$413M Ponzi Scheme”
you might think, $413M, oh thats nothing in the big picture…
Hark…. think twice
The way fraud works is that its “piled on”. a little bit here, a little bit there, and you “pile” it all together for a total large sum amount.
Why? less likely you will get caught or draw the ear of someone church going baptist.
But what about Madoff?
well, he didn’t act alone. Madoff scam was a MAJOR insutionalized operation.
backdoor kicks back & hush hush money going from the SEC, IRS, CIA, and a few hedhe funds. The fraud amount was alot for than the 50 billion, and he pleaded guilty to keep it out of the courts and no damage evidence comes forth.
Will Madoff crack and sing like a canary?
its possible, but he may not know everything, so even if he does sing, its may not be too revealing.
when it comes to major fraud. People only know there little role. Most don’t know how deep the rabbit hole can go.
hence, US govt financials, and black budgets.
ok, off to eat some hashbrowns.
but chew on that for awhile. something they don’t teach you in the wee MBA programs.
you want a real world MBA? hang out
with me.
SAS
220….Andy Kaufman….a strong #2?
ChiFI,
ket: how about a Fresca?
????
sorry, i havent had my blow yet this morning.
[162] yikes
Regarding putting serial numbers on bullets: This isn’t Pennsyltucky fantasy. NJ has proposed multiple bills in the Assembly to do exactly that. So far they haven’t gone anywhere.
Obama’s record on firearms is very clear from his days in IL. It is as draconian as it gets, short of confiscation. Among the measures he supports is a 500% tax on ammo. Gun control advocates have turned to restrictions on ammo as a way to make the guns useless.
There have been bills floated to ban the sale of reloading equipment as well, and this spring, the DoD has suspended long term contracts where DoD sold used brass cartridges to remanufacturers that reloaded the shells for sales to the public. DoD now requires that the brass be shredded, cutting its value by 80-90% and causing ammo shortages.
I can produce documentation of all of the foregoing.
So, still think the gun nuts are being paranoid?
[162] Yikes
As longtime readers of this board know, there are reasons for this behavior.
Regarding putting serial numbers on bullets: This isn’t Pennsyltucky fantasy. NJ has proposed multiple bills in the Assembly to do exactly that. So far they haven’t gone anywhere.
O’bama’s record on gun control is very clear from his days in IL. It is as draconian as it gets, short of con-fiscation. Among the measures he supports is a 500% tax on ammo. Gun control advocates have turned to restrictions on ammo as a way to make firearms useless.
There have been bills floated to ban the sale of reloading equipment as well, and this spring, the DoD has suspended long term contracts where DoD sold used brass cartridges to remanufacturers that reloaded the shells for sales to the public. DoD now requires that the brass be shredded, cutting its value by 80-90% and causing ammo shortages.
I can produce documentation of all of the foregoing.
So, still think the gun nuts are being paranoid?
grim, 233 in mod. sorry
The Daily Municipal Comment April 24, 2009
The municipal market has been dominated the past ten days by Build America Bonds. In an effort to spur infrastructure spending, this program provides for the issuance of taxable municipal bonds with the issuer receiving a rebate from the federal government to offset a portion (35%) of the interest cost. The two largest deals of the week, $3bil State of California G.O.s, and $1.3bil New Jersey Turnpike, turned to this type of financing to bring down their borrowing costs. The big question, of course, is what affect this will have on traditional tax-free issuance this year. Since most of these deals have come with long maturities, that part of the market has seen the most drop in yields, almost 40 basis points on high-grade names the past two weeks. But across the whole yield curve yields are lower, as demand remains very strong even at lower yields from retail and institutional clients. The Bond Buyer’s 20-Bond G.O. Index fell 21 basis points the past week, to 4.57%, the lowest it has been since last September. The market did pause yesterday and is opening quietly this morning.
I agree and disagree. Not everyone can handle a big job, but plenty of 40 year old married men with junk jobs give me this, I don’t want to commute to city, don’t want to word long hours, don’t like sales, think senior mgt are crooks, don’t wanna play politics to get promoted, don’t want to go to school at night for a part time MBA even though company pays, don’t want a stressful job, don’t want to update resume, don’t like to travel, don’t like to give presentations, like to do work that is “meaningful” and so on and so on. Most people have some or all of the above “rules”, most people don’t make a lot at their jobs.
chicagofinance says:
April 24, 2009 at 9:11 am
Silera says:
April 23, 2009 at 11:15 pm
The classism that this creates is almost insurmountable. For every “I made myself from nothing story” there are 1000’s who just won’t. Not out of laziness, dumbness, or lack of effort and simply because as a society we don’t value people. We value money, profit and posessions.
Sil: From my perspective, your comment has a grain of truth, but it’s mixed in with a whole bunch’o-stuff with which I will take serious issue…..
Subprime Loans, Corporate-Style, Will Fuel Defaults
a wave of corporate bankruptcies will deal another blow to the American economy, and present the Obama administration with more painful decisions about possible bailouts — bailouts that could be made directly or indirectly by persuading bailed-out banks to make loans that might not seem wise to the bankers.
Calculations by Moody’s Investors Service show that as of the beginning of April, a record 27 percent of speculative-grade debt issuers had a rating on their senior debt ranging from Caa down to C. These are the lowest rungs of credit quality — rungs that once rendered a borrower ineligible for a loan.
The default rate on leveraged loans and speculative grade bonds is rising rapidly. “We expect the default rate to get to the range of 14 percent by the end of the year,” said Kenneth Emery, a senior vice president of Moody’s. That compares to peak default rates of 10 to 12 percent during the last two recessions, in 1991 and 2001.
That could turn out to be an optimistic forecast. Edward I. Altman, a finance professor at New York University, says he thinks the rate will probably be in the range of 13 to 15 percent, but could go as high as 19 percent this year. If the recession continues into 2010, he fears that year could see a comparable default rate.
Clot-
Am I whining or is the article whining? I’m confused.
Chi-
I’m sure my experience is different from yours. All of our opinions are formed out of our personal situations. I don’t think we disagree that much.
From earlier article link,
Defaults are now rising because of the recession, but the news could get even worse. Unlike most mortgages, leveraged loans and junk bonds are not scheduled to be gradually paid off over the life of the loan. Instead, they come due and must be refinanced. Moody’s reports that leveraged companies need to refinance $26 billion in loans this year, $44 billion in 2010 and $120 billion in 2011. If credit markets remain tight, we could see lots of defaults even among companies that are doing well enough to make their interest payments.
“If they are not around,” asked Mr. Preston, speaking of the C.L.O.’s, “where is the demand to buy loans going to come from?”
When the subprime mortgage crisis burst into public view in 2007, government officials were slow to understand that the problem was much broader than the mortgage market. As it happens, the mortgage problem helped to bring on a recession, which is making the coming crisis in corporate loans — not to mention in commercial real estate loans — that much worse.
The financial engineers seemed very clever at the time. They created a lending boom that appeared to increase economic growth and general prosperity. Few paid much attention to how the clever products could blow up if things went wrong. Now that they are exploding, there are no easy solutions.
Tracking Loans Through a Firm That Holds Millions
MERS, a tiny data-management company, claimed the right to foreclose, but would not explain how it came to possess the mortgage notes originally issued by banks. Judge Logan summoned a MERS lawyer to the Pinellas County courthouse and insisted that that fundamental question be answered before he permitted the drastic step of seizing someone’s home.
Created by lenders seeking to save millions of dollars on paperwork and public recording fees every time a loan changes hands, MERS is a confidential computer registry for trading mortgage loans. From an office in the Washington suburbs, it played an integral, if unsung, role in the proliferation of mortgage-backed securities that fueled the housing boom. But with the collapse of the housing market, the name of MERS has been popping up on foreclosure notices and on court dockets across the country, raising many questions about the way this controversial but legal process obscures the tortuous paths of mortgage ownership.
“WILD-FIRED BY THE ZOO
CUTS WILL OUST HUNDREDS OF BRONX BEASTIES”
http://www.nypost.com/seven/04242009/news/regionalnews/wild_fired_by_the_zoo_165956.htm
re: #235 Question for John
Are you done climbing the corporate ladder?
Chi-
I grew up in the projects. First generation child of immigrant parents. Taxi driver dad and factory worker mom. I spoke spanish til I went to kindergarden.
I was fortunate enough to secure scholarships and obtain an excellent private school education. ONE kid in a project of over 12 buildings at 13 stories each.
I went to a private new hampshire boarding school. At said school, I remember being told in AP spanish by a teacher that my accent might work at my dining room table but not in society. For every high honor I received, I had to prove every day that I truly deserved to be there. There were many teachers and students - not all, that felt I was there just to fill a quota. Meanwhile, many students were there just because they were legacy kids.
Even with the amazing education and advantages, not only were there 1000’s of kids never afforded the opportunities I was, I was not on equal footing then or now.
It doesn’t make me bitter. I feel very successful and fortunate. My parents are proud of me and I have a better life than they did. I’m just not able to state blankly that everyone is able to create their own destiny because I’ve seen on both ends of the spectrum that your lot is very easily decided for you based on money.
“PLUNGE PROTECTION TEAM SEEMS TO BE MISSING”
http://www.nypost.com/seven/04232009/business/plunge_protection_team_seems_to_be_missi_165725.htm?&page=1#commentsiframe
235 John
You half describe me, except that I make a very good wage. I plan to give up half my pay to exit the rat race, however.
SAS 243,
I heard that the PPT made the world cricket playoffs and busy prepping for their run on the world cup.
No way, however ladder is pyramid shapped. In order to keep climbing it is harder to stay on a narrower and narrower ladder. The big challenge is your 50’s. Which I am not. But by then you need to start to get a few paid spots on boards, become an adjunct part time professor and perhaps a few times a year be a keynot speaker at conferences. You will get forced out at some point, and plan B needs to be in full effect.
Sean says:
April 24, 2009 at 9:58 am
re: #235 Question for John
Are you done climbing the corporate ladder?
“Retirement in a Ponzi scheme?”
http://unitas.wordpress.com/2008/11/16/are-your-retirement-savings-invested-in-a-ponzi-scheme/
#228 kettle: Thanks for your thougths. At the end of the day however, I know we will ultimatelty see significant large declines in prices in North Jersey.
There is nothing on the horizon to inidctae otherwise.
something you blokes better to know, its going to be all the buzz going forward:
“Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pension_Benefit_Guaranty_Corporation
SAS
The PBGC is in at least as bad a position as the FDIC is. what a joke. All the PBGC is, is a confidence game. They have the ability to bailout a few here and there but could never handle a very large set of defaults
Silera, you were one lucky pampered kid. All I recall from my 12 years in the Bronx were a day full of the nuns beating you, beat or get beat in the school yard and homework in an apartment where you slept in living room and had chores to do and the big choice was, do I do the chores so I don’t get the belt but get the ruler across the knuckles in school.
The worst dad was the Mullen Dad, eight kids and he was an extremely violent postman who was an alcholic wife and child beater. When it was a really good mess up he would drag the kid screaming to the middle of the street, line the other 7 kids up and his wife and beat them with the business end of the belt. The oldest kid finally when he was in HS managed to pull the belt out of Dads hand and beat the living life out on him right on the street with all 7 kids and neighbors watching. It was a big cheering thing, he then said you touch my Mom or brothers and sisters again I am draging you back out here again for a beating. That oldest son who beat his Dad later on became a medal of honor war hero as a medic in Desert Storm one and was in the centerfold of Time Magazine and was honored in the White House. Now me and you can say we had tough times, and overcame them but that Mullen kid would disagree with us.
Silera says:
April 24, 2009 at 10:00 am
Chi-
I grew up in the projects. First generation child of immigrant parents. Taxi driver dad and factory worker mom. I spoke spanish til I went to kindergarden.
I was fortunate enough to secure scholarships and obtain an excellent private school education. ONE kid in a project of over 12 buildings at 13 stories each.
I went to a private new hampshire boarding school. At said school, I remember being told in AP spanish by a teacher that my accent might work at my dining room table but not in society. For every high honor I received, I had to prove every day that I truly deserved to be there. There were many teachers and students - not all, that felt I was there just to fill a quota. Meanwhile, many students were there just because they were legacy kids.
Even with the amazing education and advantages, not only were there 1000’s of kids never afforded the opportunities I was, I was not on equal footing then or now.
It doesn’t make me bitter. I feel very successful and fortunate. My parents are proud of me and I have a better life than they did. I’m just not able to state blankly that everyone is able to create their own destiny because I’ve seen on both ends of the spectrum that your lot is very easily decided for you based on money.
Question for grim and/or Clot: Friend is looking at a condo in a complex where she knows someone died recently in one of the apts. She doesn’t want to buy a place in which someone was found dead. Is this something that seller and/or agent is obligated to disclose if asked?
That is the sillist thing I ever heard of.
Jill says:
April 24, 2009 at 10:33 am
Question for grim and/or Clot: Friend is looking at a condo in a complex where she knows someone died recently in one of the apts. She doesn’t want to buy a place in which someone was found dead. Is this something that seller and/or agent is obligated to disclose if asked?
“The worst dad was the Mullen Dad”
J,
Son, Joey, hockey?
John,
I garner from this Mullen story that I should beat my kids. They definately have it too easy.
Silera does have a very good point. NYC, esp. Manhattan, used to have actual neighborhoods. Rich ones, poor ones, middle class ones. These have entirely disappeared from the island in the past decade.
For the middle class (or those who believed themselves to be so) the disappearance of those neighbs makes life a bit more inconvenient and expensive as they seek out more affordable places in the `burbs.
It truly F’s the poor though as the costs associated with living in said `burbs are ones they can’t afford.
All through the huge development burst in NYC in the past 10 - 15 years there was very little talk about this. Well, WNYC would have a show on it every once in a while, but you get the idea.
I should make a note here that I am not calling for state intervention, new laws, etc. I am only making an observation.
TOSH 256,
your observation ties into the social stratification problem that has been developing for decades.
its a very hard discussion to have in a public setting as you touch on all sorts of politically loaded points, from drug laws to wellfare etc.
John - St. Ann’s?
Hoboken/ JC in 2030?
http://tinyurl.com/ctjvcc
#255
Sil, you didn’t read it to the end. Your kids should beat you.
New thread, move it up!
#257 - ket - its a very hard discussion to have in a public setting
It is, we need to have it though. I don’t think there’s any way a continuance of things as they are is not going to turn around and bite us in the collective a**.
Toshiro-
I don’t want new laws either. I don’t know how to fix it. Affordable housing programs are riddled with waste, fraud and failure. School systems are a mess. Health Care is a disaster.
I just think it’s disingenuous- specifically in that article, to have very well off people acknowledge that they couldn’t live in NYC on 75K.
Kettle- The article’s point was that it was a good thing that people are now talking about income and wealth. I think so too. People are more private about their money than many other things It’s as volatile a subject as religion and very closely tied to race, and gender.
can we get these guys on the springer show?
Cuomo: Paulson threatened Bank of America over Merrill deal - FT
Paulson’s words to Bank of America were his own-Fed spokesman -Reuters
256 tosh
couldn’t agree more
Silera; first, congratulations. You deserve it. Some background, I was born in Camden, a great place to be from if you know what I mean. I still return every year to see what could have been and thank the stars I got out. I don’t disagree with your observation but frankly, the thing about the U.S. that makes us different from the rest of the world and based on 33 years as an expat, is that your story never would have happened in Europe. In Germany blue collar parents give birth to tradesmen and white collar parents produce doctors and lawyers. Immigrants and their children either become self-employed or… well there is no other choice because they will never get a job working for a German company or become integrated in the work force. The story is the same everywhere else in Europe. This is why the self-starters and talented individuals come to the US. It’s not for the culture, its to make money and have a chance at creating a better life for their children.
I totally agree that we all should have equal opportunities to become whatever it is we want to be. But your standard of success is not the same for me or anyone else which is why we do not try and legislate equal outcomes, which is essentially the role of gov’t in euroland. I wish you great success in whatever you do.
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