Case Shiller Day!

From the Record:

Home prices in N.Y. region fell 10.2 percent in February

Home prices declined 10.2 percent in the New York metropolitan area, which includes North Jersey, from February 2008 to February 2009, the Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller index said this morning.

From MarketWatch:

Home prices falling at a slower pace in February

Home prices in 20 major cities fell 2.2% in February after a 2.8% decline in January, according to the Case-Shiller home price index released Tuesday by Standard & Poor’s.

Prices in 20 cities are down 18.6% in the past year, compared with a 19% drop in the 12 months ending in January. It was the first time in 16 months that the year-over-year decline in prices did not set a record.

“While the declines in residential real estate continued into February, we witnessed some deceleration in the rate of decline in some of the markets,” said David M. Blitzer, head of the S&P index committee.

From the AP:

Home prices post 18.6 percent annual drop in Feb.

Home prices dropped sharply in February, but for the first time in 25 months the decline was not a record, another sign the housing crisis could be bottoming.

The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller index released Tuesday showed home prices in 20 major cities tumbled by 18.6 percent from February 2008. That was slightly better than January’s 19 percent and the first time since January 2007 the index didn’t set a record.

The 10-city index slid 18.8 percent, the first time in 16 months its decline was not a record.

But the good news was mixed. All 20 cities in the report showed monthly and annual price declines, but half recorded annual records. Prices fell by more than 10 percent in 15 cities, including Las Vegas, San Francisco and Phoenix. In fact, Phoenix home prices have lost more than half their value since peaking in July 2006.

Prices in the 20-city index have plunged 30.7 percent from their peak in the summer of 2006, and the 10-city index has lost more than 31.6 percent.

From Bloomberg:

Home Prices in 20 U.S. Cities Declined by 18.6% in February

Home prices in 20 major U.S. metropolitan areas dropped in February at a slower pace, adding to evidence the market may be stabilizing.

The S&P/Case-Shiller index’s 18.6 percent decrease compares with a record 19 percent decline the month before. The gauge has fallen every month since January 2007, and year-over-year records began in 2001. For the first time since the measure started dropping in 2007, the 20-city index didn’t post a record year-over-year decline in February.

Economists forecast the index would drop 18.7 percent from a year earlier, according to the median of 27 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from declines of 17 percent to 19.2 percent.

Compared with a month earlier, home prices fell 2.2 percent in February, after a 2.8 percent decline in January, today’s report showed.

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

200 Responses to Case Shiller Day!

  1. John says:

    first

  2. Cindy says:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=af5zW9kN.2zo&refer=us

    I was just reading this out of Bloomberg

    “Home prices in major U.S. cities probably fell at slower pace”

  3. xmonger says:

    Case Shiller numbers “good”.

    Bank stress tests for Citi and BoA “bad”.

    Looks like financials will get crushed today.

    P.S. What does one get for being first?

  4. RayC says:

    xmonger

    For being first you don’t have to deal with the shame of being second.

  5. sas says:

    “Do you have your own seasoning formula or just go with wipe with oil, heat the heck out of it, heat with oil and heat the heck out of it”

    i just use evoo and heat in the oven at 350.

    SAS

  6. John says:

    Neither, Citi and BOA are propped up by short sellers and day traders, so what if the stock falls. More interesting is the Fed says they won’t fail and their bonds have not budged one bit this morning, in fact several of Citi bonds are trading higher this morning, what Timmy is saying is BAC adn Citi needs more cash but we will do what we can, to stockholders that means possible further diluidtion or falling shareprices, to the US economy, who cares, neither bank pose much counterparty or default risk and there will be no run on the bank. Who cares if BAC or CITI traders at 2 bucks or ten bucks.

    xmonger says:
    April 28, 2009 at 9:14 am
    Case Shiller numbers “good”.

    Bank stress tests for Citi and BoA “bad”.

    Looks like financials will get crushed today.

    P.S. What does one get for being first?

  7. sas says:

    “Are you a realtor?”

    no

    “You are assuming people are lack any business sense or selling ability”

    yes, most can’t even get their gig line straight, let alone sell anything. These are the people that think obama or bush are great people… enough said…

    “Which would be 90% of realtors, which is why most real estate brokers don’t last too long.”

    so, what color are your Capezios?
    :)
    SAS

  8. NJGator says:

    Reposting request from previous thread since it was retired – Can someone with GSMLS access let me knwo what the SP was for 49 Christopher in Montclair? The estimated CD was 4/21.

    Thanks.

  9. make money says:

    Clot,

    Just make the price of the home $1.
    Somebody will pick it up.

    Detroit is selling homes for $1.00 for over two years now.

  10. Sean says:

    re#3 Clot – that is disgusting, they should have donated the homes to a charity like Habitat for Humanity before bulldozing them.

  11. Pat says:

    I hate to spit on the pity parade, but if you have a valuable asset that is being devalued by some fixable issue, you pick the damn wart off.

    If you owned a bunch of land, and there was something on it that was not worth the cost to “fix” it, you’d plow it down, too.

    Nobody should be telling the bank what to do with its land, as long as the bank is not violating code.

  12. Clotpoll says:

    Sean (12)-

    Cheaper to knock ’em down than to fix ’em.

  13. Clotpoll says:

    sas (9)-

    Hard to argue with the delusional.

  14. John says:

    SAS – Lets see if I was a good sales person would I work at Goldman and make 40 million a year or would I sell POS splits for 70K a year. Must sellers, buyers and realtors are stupid

  15. Clotpoll says:

    John (17)-

    Sorry to impinge on your universe, but you’re embarrassing yourself.

  16. schlivo says:

    Anybody have the CSP YOY price declines for our area?

  17. Clotpoll says:

    I’m still waiting for the “swine flu in Israel” joke.

    Preferably, it will include a moyel, Manischevitz and the offer of a discount on ham hocks.

  18. make money says:

    Great video by Schiff on the negative 5 % interest rate study released by the Fed.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4jFXpZOHyDI

    “Inflation train has left the station”.

  19. renter says:

    Someone considered “unfortunate enough” to be given a habitat house probably would not be able to maintain, pay the utilities and taxes on a large home.

  20. Sean says:

    So the banks are avoiding fines and back taxes. Bulldoze is the answer to all of our housing problems lets deal with the excess unsold and foreclosure inventory now, so the banks can avoid fines and back taxes.

    FYI, I am sticking with my U-3 prediction of 20% in 2010. Let’s see how you feel when they bulldoze half your neighborhood. There is going to be millions of additional homes in bank inventory pretty soon.

    Time to start the NJREREPORT Bulldozer, Armor Plating and Pup tent company.

  21. we says:

    BREAKING NEWS: A private research group says that consumer confidence soars in April

  22. Sen. Shelby seems to be making some big noise today;
    – “A lot of banks are inadequately cap’d”
    – “Fed should let public know full results of tests”
    – “If banks fail they should be merged of closed”
    No article, this is Reuters via Kobra so it won’t show up on their page for another 30min or so.

  23. we says:

    International Business Machines Corp. boosted its quarterly dividend 10 percent to 55 cents a share and said it plans to repurchase as much as $3 billion in shares.

  24. grim says:

    Anybody have the CSP YOY price declines for our area?

    Down -10.2% over the past year.

  25. renter says:

    It makes sense to bulldoze in places like Detroit. Once a large portion of a neighborhood is vacant then a city will be unable to provide services(trash removal, police) in an efficient manner.

    New Jersey is a densely populated state. It is less likely this will happen here.

  26. schlivo says:

    grim says:
    April 28, 2009 at 10:07 am

    “Down -10.2% over the past year.”

    Thanks Grim. So still accelerating. No bottom here yet.

  27. grim says:

    I’ll update the price tracker later in the day.

    Prices in this area are still falling, no bottom.

  28. AnastasiaBeaverhausen says:

    Just heard on CNBC gov’t gonna back 2nd liens now as well as initial liens under the poorly performing Home Affordability program giving $2500 incentives for servicers to right down loans. Also, debtors get a thousand dollar reward if they keep their new modified loan current.

    What’s the definition of insanity again?

  29. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    Consumer confidence surges to 39.2 in April

    The U.S. consumer confidence index jumped to 39.2 in April from 26.9 in March, the Conference Board reported Tuesday. The 12.3 point gain in the index was the fourth-largest ever in the 32-year history of the survey. Economists were expecting the index to rise about five points to 30.5. Consumers were a little happier about the present situation than they were in March, but the big improvement came in the expectations index, which surged to 49.5 in April from 30.2 in March, the biggest increase since the fall of Baghdad in the spring of 2003.

  30. grim says:

    Mission Accomplished!

  31. Clotpoll says:

    we (24)-

    Who? The PPT?

  32. we says:

    34 see 32

  33. John says:

    I thought I called the end of the recession a few weeks ago. This weekend thinking there would be deals I gotta round to booking a trip to Mohonk Manor up by New Paltz,

  34. skep-tic says:

    not sure how the consumer confidence number is calculated, but it seems to me there is room for optimism provided that you are still employed. A lot of things are getting cheaper

  35. Pat says:

    John’s getting out in the boonies. Wow, New Paltz.

    Baby steps, John. Maybe you should just stick with an adventure out to West Point and not risk the extra miles.

    The might have pigs out there.

  36. CB in SJ says:

    31: What’s the definition of insanity again?

    To keep doing the
    same thing and expect a different result?

  37. Johnny W. says:

    So I guess its not the time to buy just yet? I am renting and have been sitting on the money since 2006 waiting for the bottom.

  38. House Whine says:

    37 – you know what’s really getting cheaper? The salaries being offered to prospective employees!

  39. kettle1 says:

    Clot #3

    and who says a home cant have a negative value!!!

  40. kettle1 says:

    sean 12,

    “thats disgusting”

    maybe, maybe not. What would the utility cost of heating and cooling the house have been? how about the taxes? are there jobs near by or are these lower income people going to have a substantial commute?

    There have been some recent studies that suggest the suburbs increase burdens on lower income groups due to the lack of mass transit options, decrease in housing options etc.

    Also, what about liability? I am not an attorney but its possible that there was substantial liability associated with passing those homes to someone else without addressing code issues. What was the value of the raw and? The raw land could easily be worth more without the overall liability of unfinished homes with code issues.

  41. BC Bob says:

    “I thought I called the end of the recession a few weeks ago.”

    J,

    And Dick Fcuk also stated that Lehman was well capitalized.

  42. kettle1 says:

    sean,

    given how poorly many of the recently built homes have been constructed, bulldozing may actually be the best option for everyone. In 10 years half the mcmansions built at the peak of the bubble will be falling apart

  43. Qwerty says:

    RE: It makes sense to bulldoze in places like Detroit.

    Bulldozing costs money — the future of Detroit is this…

    http://www.forgottendetroit.com/caddy/photos.html

  44. kettle1 says:

    BC

    to add to the protectionism game:

    “On Monday, Indonesia banned all pork products coming from Canada, the United States and Mexico, and said it would destroy any pork products imported before the ban. International health experts said the flu cannot be transmitted from pigs or from eating properly handled pork.”
    -NYT

    Indonesia wont be the last place to do this or similar if the Flu continues to progress

  45. BC Bob says:

    kettle [47],

    Can pigs fly?

  46. we says:

    Let’s see, Employment went from 136 million down to 132 million. A few unemployed I know are not even looking because the Government handouts are too sweet. They are working off the books too and doing better than ever.

    Meanwhile, people suddenly realize, they have all this unspent money in the bank. Stock market is up, and swine flu reminds us, we are not invincible.

  47. John says:

    I ment to say, I went to book a trip to a hotel where rooms were 1,000 a night that had a special, they had one 550 room left, a handfull of $650 rooms, all the big rooms and suites were sold out for june already, this is a 550 room hotel. Yea big recession. Needless to say I grabbed the 550 room.

  48. John says:

    Wow what a fire sale! Just kidding.

    I wanted to reach out to see if you might have an interest in a New York Jets luxury suite for our final season here at the current stadium. For 75k, you have sixteen tickets to all ten Jets games as well as the right of first refusal to use the suite for all other ticketed events. I might even be able to get that number down towards 65k if you only want the football games and are willing to relinquish your rights to purchase the other events (U2, Springsteen, AC/DC, etc…) Let me know if you think this would be something of interest. Thanks.

    GO JETS!!!

    Jeffrey Petracca
    Business Development
    New Meadowlands Stadium
    102 Route 120
    East Rutherford, NJ 07073
    Phone: 201.355.0668
    Cell: 201.407.8243

  49. 3b says:

    This is the first recession I have lived through,where people are denying it is a recession.

    Makes no sense, lots of denial, whatever. I am focusing on rum twizzlers.

  50. BC Bob says:

    J [50],

    Maybe you should buy the hotel?

  51. 3b says:

    Consumer ocnfidence up? The same consumers who have nobody to balme for getting into trouble in the first place?

    I have finally learned to accept, that you just cannot fix stupid. So why bother,and who cares.

  52. John says:

    I have been to Bermuda six times and I want a rum twitzler.

    People are denying because it is mainly imaginary money lost. I friend put it this way, every 40 something yuppie lost 40% of their 401k and their house is down 20%. So what, they were going to live there till they die and don’t need 401K money for 25 years. Yea it is a shock but it wears off when you realize you still have the same amount of cash flowing in bi-weekly and Disney trips and BMWs just got a lot cheaper, party on dudes!!!!!

    3b says:
    April 28, 2009 at 11:26 am
    This is the first recession I have lived through,where people are denying it is a recession.

    Makes no sense, lots of denial, whatever. I am focusing on rum twizzlers.

  53. kettle1 says:

    3b

    engineering lesson #1

    You cant out engineer stupid

    This rule seems to apply to most things in life.

  54. BC Bob says:

    “So what, they were going to live there till they die and don’t need 401K money for 25 years.”

    Completely asinine. Sounds like mark to fantasy. Probably a WS cheerleader.

  55. kettle1 says:

    BC,

    can pigs fly

    dont know, does said swine have avian flu?

  56. PGC says:

    #36 Strawman

    What specials did you get for Mohonk? We usually just do the Sunday Lunch. That gives you free access to the grounds.

  57. Zack says:

    #55

    “People are denying because it is mainly imaginary money lost. I friend put it this way, every 40 something yuppie lost 40% of their 401k and their house is down 20%. So what, they were going to live there till they die and don’t need 401K money for 25 years. Yea it is a shock but it wears off when you realize you still have the same amount of cash flowing in bi-weekly and Disney trips and BMWs just got a lot cheaper, party on dudes!!!!! ”

    This what you call programmed thinking. Work your butt off, put money in 401K’s and just hope that when you retire, you have that money.
    People never get rich this way..
    This kind of attitude is perfect recipe for slavery or serfdom.
    Unfortunately that’s what most people do because because their money raised them stupid.

  58. John says:

    They have Mom free in May and Dad free in June specials. I went near end of June. I avoid Kids free week even though I have kids as it is a nut house there as everyone with 3-5 kids show up. Towers are 625 regularly 1,000. I got for around 650 a night including tax and tip a room for two adults and two kids included.

  59. Zack says:

    money = mother

  60. John says:

    I did not lost a cent in my 401k, first of all I put it in pre-tax and second my I get a match. Plus I have tons of gains from the 90’s. You could lose 60% and still be ahead. 401K money is just ment to be burial money or an inheritance for your kids.

  61. BC Bob says:

    Only an imbecile would have 15-20% deducted from their paycheck and not care how the investment is performing. It’s idiots like this that wake up, one day, and realize that they don’t have a pot to piss in.

  62. BC Bob says:

    “You could lose 60% and still be ahead.”

    Idiot see, idiot do.

  63. PGC says:

    #61 Strawman

    Nice rate. I’ll have to sign up for their announcements

  64. Zack says:

    “You could lose 60% and still be ahead. 401K money is just ment to be burial money or an inheritance for your kids.”

    People these days don’t have money to buy themselves a burial plot with their 401k’s buried in the market.

  65. Victorian says:

    Elizabeth Warren on Jon Stewart (for those who missed it) –

    http://www.thedailyshow.com/full-episodes/index.jhtml?episodeId=224255

    This is one of the best shows Stewart has done.

  66. make money says:

    Only an imbecile would have 15-20% deducted from their paycheck and not care how the investment is performing.

    Amen!

    Wall street sold this “longterm” just put it in and don’t worry about it for a long time. Now you have former blue chips like C, BAC, GE, GM, F, LEH, MER, WB,FNM, FRE droping a nuclear bomb on everyone’s retirement. Just think of the old lady who owns a GM bond and living of the interest.

    People who are approching 60 are waking up with their 401K slaughtered and homes underwater.

    Everyone who is in their 40’s is in the sam eposition except they’re not gonna get Social Security either.

    American standard of living as we knew it is gone. Pretty soon Joe six pax is gonna realize that inflation will wipe out the middle class as he’s beer will now cost $20.00 and the rich who inherited the funds and were cluless and didn’t hedge.

  67. Duckvader says:

    to add to the protectionism game:

    “On Monday, Indonesia banned all pork products coming from Canada, the United States and Mexico, and said it would destroy any pork products imported before the ban. International health experts said the flu cannot be transmitted from pigs or from eating properly handled pork.”
    -NYT

    Indonesia wont be the last place to do this or similar if the Flu continues to progress
    —————–

    This was not protectionism in any meaningful sense. Indonesia doesn’t have any significant industry — it is a predominantly Muslim country. Pork isn’t even a substitute protein for much of the population. It’s political posturing, but not even close to being protectionism.

  68. 3b says:

    #56 kettle: The school budget vote last week was the final straw for me,as far as assuming that people would send a message, but the message they sent was the opposite.

    In that we better spend more money (even if we do not have it), to ensure that our house values stay high, to appeal to the young couples who will pay, because we have blue ribbon schools, even if they are losing their jobs, or taking salary cuts.

    Less means you should pay more. It is the new math.

    After initally being quite surprised, I have just decided why bother.

    The majority of Americans IMO are uninformed on most matters, and they wish to remain that way.

    Who am I to try and change that.

    So I will now go along to get along, or be silent like St. Thomas More (although his silence cost him his head, so I may need to rethink that).

    From now on it is all about me and fun.

    I have all my ducks lined up nicely (no debt saving 20% a year).

    I might as well have fun. Nobody appointed me as the messiah to try and caution family and friends and anybody else for that matter (I did, they did not listen).

    So I will wait for house prices to come down to what I believe to be rational, reasonable levels. All the while of course watching property taxes rise into the double digits, year after year.

    However long it takes (after all the manipulation), it takes. If they don’t come down enough, (but they will) than I don’t buy, simple as that.

    No skin off my nose. In the meantime, time to have fun.

    Sorry for the long ramble, just my thoughts on things.

  69. chicagofinance says:

    make money says:
    April 28, 2009 at 9:52 am
    Great video by Schiff on the negative 5 % interest rate study released by the Fed.

    albani: is he on the road in Florida or did his landlord evict him from his office?

  70. BC Bob says:

    Chi [72],

    Maybe his landlord is GGP?

  71. make money says:

    albani: is he on the road in Florida or did his landlord evict him from his office?

    Albani, stop being a hater. He’s just telling it like it (his book) is.

  72. Clotpoll says:

    (55)-

    I think we’re witnessing the de-evolution of John into pure troll:

    “People are denying because it is mainly imaginary money lost. I friend put it this way, every 40 something yuppie lost 40% of their 401k and their house is down 20%. So what, they were going to live there till they die and don’t need 401K money for 25 years. Yea it is a shock but it wears off when you realize you still have the same amount of cash flowing in bi-weekly and Disney trips and BMWs just got a lot cheaper, party on dudes!!!!!”

  73. Clotpoll says:

    I’d take a lease from GGP anytime.

    And break it…then demand a workout…or a midnight self-eviction follows.

    Works every time.

  74. make money says:

    Now that GM is gonna become “Governament Motors” they should come up with a huge line of SUV’s called TARP.

    To honor Geitner they will have a limited addition TURBO TARP.

    One cool feature on the limited Turbo TARP will be an in dash ATM machine line of credit backed by Timmy himself.

    This is a great company with a great product line and great management. I think I’ll buy a ton of GM common and put in my retirement fund and “forget” about it.

  75. kettle1 says:

    3b 71

    we are on the same page. try and debate this tuff with most people and you get a dumb cow stare and “but Fox/CNN/CNBC/Obama said….”

  76. bi says:

    on behalf of nj re report community, i am going to make a formal petition to ask SEC to declare ultrashorts as scam instruments and void all trades since their inception. anyone here wants to sign up?

  77. make money says:

    Bi,

    Go tresspass on Clot’s property. I’ll sign up for that.

  78. Firestormik says:

    Guys,

    Some of you have reverse-osmosis filters home, it was already discussed here. Any advice on water remineralization? It’s not quite healthy to drink water with no minerals and low PH coming from reverse osmosis.

  79. SirRentsalot says:

    bi – why are your posts so bitter?

  80. 3b says:

    375 clot:I think we’re witnessing the de-evolution of John into pure troll:

    He has goen from being entertaining to moronic. But who cares.

  81. SirRentsalot says:

    apologies if already posted:

    “The homeownership rate is back to the level of Q2 2000. So much for the homeownership gains of the last 8+ years. Gone.”

    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/04/q1-2009-homeownership-rate-at-2000.html

  82. bi says:

    80#, is srs one of his property? i guess so.

  83. 3b says:

    #78 kettle: I don’t any more, too tired, and I don”t care.

  84. SirRentsalot says:

    “Yea it is a shock but it wears off when you realize you still have the same amount of cash flowing in bi-weekly”

    Not if you were getting cash-flow via re-fi and now you’re so far underwater that your ears are popping.

  85. 3b says:

    Why do I wait, when I could make this gem mine today?

    http://www.njmls.com/cf/details.cfm?mls_number=2917440&id=999999

  86. #88 – Only 1 interior shot, never a good sign.

  87. Clotpoll says:

    make-

    Are you gonna head down to FIU and catch any of Isiah’s games next year?

    Do you think Isiah can make it to the season opener without trying to tap some 19 y/o co-ed?

    My money says no.

  88. Clotpoll says:

    tosh (89)-

    One time I showed a house with only one interior shot…and found out there were plenty of other shots of the house.

    Of the gunshot variety.

  89. BC Bob says:

    bi [79],

    A better suggestion, tell the SEC to get their heads out of their ass.

  90. kettle1 says:

    Fire

    I am not familair with any commercail re-mineralization setup for post RO in a residence. The only system i am familiar with are large scale industrial system.

    if you are that worried about it take a multivitamin that has a good spectrum of minerals in it or dont use RO for drinking. You coul also use a filter system that ONLY uses carbon filters and not reverse osmosis.

    A quick google search appears to show that most “mineral re-vitalization” systems are fluff at best.

    on a side bar, the amount of disinformation about RO that my brief google search turned up was astounding.

  91. Looks like a deal was reached on Chrysler. $2B in cash to unsecured creditors, that’s all folks.
    Unless we count the inevitable payout AIG will make on CDS.

  92. 3b says:

    #89 toshiro: I am really, really surprised,a nd quite frankly disappointed in you.

    All you need is that one shot to tell you that you should hurry,hurry!!!

    If that one shot is so great, just think what the rest of that wonderful home has to offer.

    And that price!! You would be a fool no to make that home yours today.

  93. bi says:

    82#, sir, i hate people wearing shorts.

    >SirRentsalot says:
    April 28, 2009 at 12:46 pm
    bi – why are your posts so bitter?

  94. BC Bob says:

    “82#, sir, i hate people wearing shorts.”

    bi, aka Dick Fuld.

  95. NJGator says:

    Expect the Franken Coleman race to be fought all the way up to the Supreme Court now. Specter’s party switch makes Al the filibuster proof vote, and Coleman really needs the resignation of that seat to be offered up to the feds when they want to indict him.

    Arlen Specter switches parties

    Veteran GOP Sen. Specter switches parties
    ‘Political philosophy more in line with Democrats than Republicans,’ he says

    Specter to run as a Democrat
    April 28: Veteran Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter announces his intention to switch from the Republican Party to the Democratic Party.
    MSNBC

    BREAKING NEWS
    NBC News and news services
    updated 17 minutes ago
    WASHINGTON – Veteran Republican Sen. Arlen Specter announced Tuesday that he is switching parties, a move would give Democrats a filibuster-proof 60 seats if Al Franken is seated in the Minnesota race.

    “I have decided to run for re-election in 2010 in the Democratic primary,” the Pennsylvania senator said in a statement.

    “I now find my political philosophy more in line with Democrats than Republicans,” Specter said, adding that the “change in party affiliation does not mean that I will be a party-line voter any more for the Democrats that I have been for the Republicans.”

    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/30456741/

  96. Clotpoll says:

    1990: When guns are outlawed, only outlaws will have guns.

    2009: When short-selling is outlawed, only idiots will be long.

  97. Clotpoll says:

    They could replace the Senate with 100 rented clowns.

    You wouldn’t even notice the difference.

    Place might actually run better.

  98. NJGator says:

    Clot – I think at the very least there might be less indictments.

  99. prtraders2000 says:

    Had my dp in Etrade complete savings at a decent rate, but seems they have dropped it to 1.2%. About 80k. Any suggestions for a better safe option?

  100. HEHEHE says:

    FBR: Bank Of America Needs $70 Billion

    Posted by Tyler Durden at 12:48 PM
    Paul Miller has released a report that none of the programs trading the market currently have obviously read. Regardless, in keeping with hopes that at some point cheerleading and rationality prevail, it is prudent to at least know what will happen as you are purchasing BAC stock today. Miller’s conclusion is for a cool $60-$70 billion capital deficiency at BofA if the bank wishes to maintain the 3% TCE ratio it needs to be “viable” and recommends that the company convert $27 billion of private preferreds into common, in line with what Citigroup has done.

    http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/04/fbr-bank-of-america-needs-70-billion.html

  101. sastry says:

    #103… Fnbodirect.com. It’s 1.9% as of now.

    S

  102. we says:

    dollarsavingsdirect 2.05%
    but there are many sites that track these.

  103. sastry says:

    #88 3b,

    The plastic chair and trash can there are very durable, just like the house.

    S

  104. Alap says:

    103 – Wachovia currently has a Way2Save program, 5% in the first year, 2% the next 2 years after. Plus a 5% bonus at the end of the first year on “qualifying balance”. that part was a bit confusing, but hey, 5% on the first year is mighty fine currently.

    Check it out on their website.

  105. yome says:

    10 year treasury passed the 3.01 handle,wells 30 year fixed mortgage at 4.6. Why is that?

  106. sastry says:

    bi: “i am going to make a formal petition to ask SEC to declare ultrashorts as scam instruments.”

    What about ultralongs funds UYG? They are exempt? Why the crusade against these ultrashort funds?

    And, anyone trading these (I haven’t and most likely won’t) should be very much aware of the risks and time decay.

    I am sure there is a lot more risk and effort (and skill) involved in creating an ultrashort position by oneself.

    S

  107. Alap says:

    prtrader, if you do decide to open, let me send you a referral. we both get $25 if you open.

  108. Clotpoll says:

    Hey bi, I’m way past SRS. Check out this fun little proposition, a bet that Ken Lewis is beheaded by Jun 30:

    http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/index.jsp?query=lewis#

    You can drive an Abrams through the spread on Pandit’s imminent demise.

  109. Clotpoll says:

    I especially like the Dick Fuld and Tangelo Mozilo indictment plays:

    http://www.intrade.com

  110. prtraders2000 says:

    Wachovia’s way2save only lets you deposit $100 per month for the 5%.

    http://www.netbanker.com/2008/02/wachovias_way2save_deal_or_no.html

    Thanks though.

  111. Clotpoll says:

    Vikram Pandit to depart as CEO of Citibank before midnight ET on 30 June 2009: Bid 16, Ask 50.

  112. sastry says:

    Alap #109 and 3b #88

    Way2Save stuff is not applicable. It is a maximum of 100 buck per month deposit into the savings account from the checking account. I wouldn’t call it a scam, but…

  113. veto that says:

    http://tinyurl.com/cp9pb9

    Updated CS Metro and other charts
    From Veto and Kettle

    Disclaimer: The dotted light blue prediction line is just a random guess.

  114. BC Bob says:

    Clot,

    Can Fuld straddle Pandit?

  115. Clotpoll says:

    Run, Dick, run!

  116. Clotpoll says:

    veto (118)-

    Where are the stick people and the monster?

    Good stuff! I especially like the crisp, authoritative presentation of your random guess as fact. :)

  117. John says:

    short term investment grade cruise ship and hotel bonds would be a good buy for your down payment, well at least a little bit saw some panic selling due to pandemic this morning yielding 18%.

  118. John says:

    My stuff has been bad lately, I am a true new yorker and I love misery, I need something to complain about. In march I took a chance and put a lot in bonds on margin no less and I was right, now I have one less thing to complain about.

  119. Clotpoll says:

    short term investment grade cruise ship and hotel bonds = oxymoron

  120. Clotpoll says:

    John (124)-

    You closed out those positions yet?

  121. 3b says:

    #124 John: I might have to rethink my cruise to Bermuda. HAd not thought about that. Me not happy if I have to bag it.

  122. yikes says:

    clot, you see how GGgot all topical last night? A madoff reference and then the rich stealing from the rich?

    that’s a great show

  123. John says:

    Some,I try to wait a year for cap gain reasons. However, I rarely close out positions, I am always putting new money in. I like to increase the M1 money supply!!! Actually, in my insane October 2008 to March 2009 Junk Bond buying craze I bought junk fully expecting a few blow-up, at least 5% of the bonds I was buying, so far no blow up. But the junk is throwing off 2K a month in interest income which now I am looking for new things to invest in. I have too much junk in my trunk.

    Clotpoll says:
    April 28, 2009 at 2:11 pm
    John (124)-

    You closed out those positions yet?

  124. yikes says:

    thanks for the golf tips, people. that makefield place wants $76 for a non-PA resident on a weekend? Even though it includes a cart, $76 seems like a lot.

    was going to play with a business friend from NJ.

    guess i could just charge it – business expense anyway

  125. CalculatedRisk has some of the details on the 2nd lien program.

  126. make money says:

    Do you think Isiah can make it to the season opener without trying to tap some 19 y/o co-ed?

    Clot,

    He will tap a bunch of co-eds down there and his game must have improved some hence he probably won’t get caught in his first couple of years.

    He’s star player will get a knob job every time he scores 20 and after every win he will guarantee two blondes and a hood rat.

  127. Firestormik says:

    kettle,
    Any thoughts about this one?
    http://www.purewateressentials.com/naaliomioxca.html

  128. BklynHawk says:

    Hadn’t seen this mentioned…40 former Star Ledger employees start New Jersey focused site…

    http://www.newjerseynewsroom.com/

  129. veto that says:

    “I think we’re witnessing the de-evolution of John into pure troll. He has goen from being entertaining to moronic.”

    I like Johns posts. I always learn something random from his run-on sentances. His aloof indifference and over optimism serves an important purpose here. When the Dow is crashing through the floor and we are all hiding in the basement counting our canned goods, he is out there whistling, buying junk debt at 12 cents on the dollar and booking cruises to the carribean.
    When he starts buying gold coins and talking about compounds, we will all know that its not safe to go outside.

  130. Shore Guy says:

    “24.we says:
    April 28, 2009 at 10:05 am
    BREAKING NEWS: A private research group says that consumer confidence soars in April”

    Big deal. Two years ago most people were certain their RE holdings were always going to go up and were worth every penny of their peek prices, and were confident the economy was on an ever-upward path.

  131. yikes says:

    every 40 something yuppie lost 40% of their 401k and their house is down 20%. So what, they were going to live there till they die and don’t need 401K money for 25 years. Yea it is a shock but it wears off when you realize you still have the same amount of cash flowing in bi-weekly and Disney trips and BMWs just got a lot cheaper, party on dudes!!!!!

    hey captain clueless, dont forget that many of those yuppies bought more house than they could afford AND now might be out of a job. their entry level BMW like yours has been repossessed and they’re hoping the Toyota doesn’t have any problems this summer.

    job market currently not so hot.

    and that’s just the major cities. let me know if you want to talk about florida, arizona, ohio and detroit

  132. veto that says:

    Yikes, try Gamblers Ridge, not far from princeton. good luck

  133. Alexnyc88 says:

    10% down, another (at least 20) to go. Maybe then it will be affordable. (Fort Lee 650K houses selling for 400K which was the price in early 2000’s).

  134. yikes says:

    BC Bob says:
    April 28, 2009 at 11:55 am

    Only an imbecile would have 15-20% deducted from their paycheck and not care how the investment is performing. It’s idiots like this that wake up, one day, and realize that they don’t have a pot to piss in.

    LOL
    yeah, down 60%, who cares, paper loss!

    tack on 5 years to retirement, then get back to me.

  135. NJGator says:

    Multi in our neighborhood closed earlier this month. Assessed at $751,900, it sold for $490,000 (34.83% below assessment).

    No problems in Montclair. Nope. None. No siree.

  136. John says:

    Rep Frank sees banks TARP-free in a year
    REUTERS — 11:54 AM ET 04/28/09
    By Karey Wutkowski

    WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The U.S. banking system could be free of government money within a year, the powerful chairman of the U.S. House of Representatives Financial Services Committee said on Tuesday.

  137. Alap says:

    117 – Foiled by my own petarb!

  138. HEHEHE says:

    Re 142,

    Barney Fwank iz a vewy beweivable indwividwual

  139. BC Bob says:

    “Rep Frank sees banks TARP-free in a year”

    Who needs TARP when you have TLGP?

  140. John says:

    yikes, I don’t plan on ever spending a nickle in my 401K. Plus Equities should be as follows consertive 100-your age, agresive 120-you age. A 65 year old should have no more than 35 to 55% in stocks, bear markets can last up to ten years so in downtimes you draw equities in good times you draw stocks. I met an 80 year old who was complianing about her retirement account losing value on Saturday!!!! She should have only been 20% in stocks. In fact she should be dancing for joy, in the 1982 to 1999 huge bull market she should have a higher concentration of stocks and now not so much. When my Mom retired in 1992 she was mainly stocks we pulled a set amount out each year into bonds and the last piece of stock was out in Jan 2002. By the time the market melted down in 2000 she had hardly any. She bought all stock in her plan from 1978 to 1992, retirees who can’t take chips off the table are gamblers straight, but they were lucky gamblers who won most of their lives and go greedy, there is a place for bulls and bears on wall street but there is no place for pigs.

  141. veto that says:

    Alap, NY Metro is down 17% since peak june 06. The 10% is just in the last year feb to feb.

  142. John says:

    Hey PGC or Strawaman have you ever been to Mohonk? I have never been there but I am going for three days. I heard it is a great place, did you like it.

    says:
    April 28, 2009 at 11:42 am
    #36 Strawman

    What specials did you get for Mohonk? We usually just do the Sunday Lunch. That gives you free access to the grounds.

  143. NJGator says:

    Regarding 141 – It last sold in Dec 2003 for $464,300. Factor in the realtor commission, transfer taxes, etc and this sale is a loss after 5+ years of holding the property, even if the owner didn’t invest a dime in improvements.

  144. bi says:

    111#, sastry, the time decay of ultralongs is not symetric as ultrashorts. financials have beend down over 50% in one year but UYG did not go down over 100%. on the flip side, it won’t go up 100% if financials goes up 50%.

  145. skep-tic says:

    #147

    “NY Metro is down 17% since peak june 06. The 10% is just in the last year feb to feb.”

    and the trend downward has been accelerating since December.

    so let’s say we go down another 12% or so by the end of 2009. Does it seem reasonable that we would plateau after that? Would be down close to 30%

  146. Clotpoll says:

    HE (144)-

    It is hard to believe that anyone- of either gender- would sleep with this sallow package of skin, fat and gristle.

    “Barney Fwank iz a vewy beweivable indwividwual”

  147. Clotpoll says:

    I will pay $1,000 to anyone who can supply a reasonable translation of bi’s $150.

  148. Clotpoll says:

    That’s #150.

  149. make money says:

    BREAKING NEWS: A private research group says that consumer confidence soars in April”

    I will pass this to the 8 renters that are unemployed and still owe me rent from Feb.

    This research group must be as private and independant as our federal reserve.

  150. make money says:

    will pay $1,000 to anyone who can supply a reasonable translation of bi’s $150.

    You might as well up that to a million reward. Nobody knows or cares what that fool says.

  151. chicagofinance says:

    yome says:
    April 28, 2009 at 1:42 pm
    10 year treasury passed the 3.01 handle,wells 30 year fixed mortgage at 4.6. Why is that?

    y: artificial demand for mortgage product effectively tightens the spread….

  152. Shore Guy says:

    “peek prices”

    Yeesh. Peak, even.

  153. Shore Guy says:

    Lisa,

    The problem with that street is that it is infested with gators.

  154. Shore Guy says:

    If anyone is looking to sell tickets to the May 23 Springsteen show at Izod, let me know. Could use 2 or perhaps 4. Our schedule changed and we now have the evening free.

  155. HEHEHE says:

    “It is hard to believe that anyone- of either gender- would sleep with this sallow package of skin, fat and gristle.”

    Barney Fwank iz a vewy powahful mwan, and we all know powah is the gweatest aphwodesiac.

  156. Alexnyc88 says:

    Whats the point for people age 30-40 to even have 401k? We already know we wont get jack **** from our SS money, and even if we do, it will be worth 1/100th of its today’s value. This happened when the USSR collapsed in 1992 with majority of savings evaporating into thin air and communist party bosses privatizing all useful resources and infrastructure.
    So what guarantees that even if you do get 2 million from your 401k plan in 35 years, those 2 million will be closer to $2k in purchasing power.

  157. John says:

    Barney hates the young investment bankers by day but by night he would love a young investment banker to give him a pump and dump special.

    HEHEHE says:
    April 28, 2009 at 3:49 pm
    “It is hard to believe that anyone- of either gender- would sleep with this sallow package of skin, fat and gristle.”

    Barney Fwank iz a vewy powahful mwan, and we all know powah is the gweatest aphwodesiac.

  158. #113 – a bet that Ken Lewis is beheaded by Jun 30

    It’s almost a gimme that Ken gets teh failz. Calpers has said they’re voting against they entire board.

  159. sastry says:

    #150 bi..

    “… the time decay of ultralongs is not symetric as ultrashorts. financials have beend down over 50% in one year but UYG did not go down over 100%. on the flip side, it won’t go up 100% if financials goes up 50%.”

    The idea of the ultrashort ETF’s is that they don’t become negative (otherwise, we might as well short on margin). Also, you should be aware that these are not “linearly related” over long time [they aim to match 2x performance daily rather than over a long time — there are many factors such as dividends, interest rates, etc.]

  160. John says:

    Bloomberg told reporters today. At P.S. 177, a public school for autistic children, 82 students have called in sick, Bloomberg said. Most haven’t been tested, and city health officials are focusing on the sickest, the mayor said.

    Weird, I thought someone on this site told me vacines cause autism. But then how did the autistic kids catch the swine flu?

  161. bi says:

    ken can just ignore these idiots. how influential it is with 1/3 of 1 percent.

    “The influential fund, whose full name is the California Public Employees’ Retirement System, joins a growing list of institutional and individual shareholders opposing Lewis’ reelection. It said it controls about 22.73 million shares, roughly one-third of one percent of shares outstanding. “

  162. John says:

    Talk of U.S. 50-year Treasury bubbles up in bond market

    By Deborah Levine, MarketWatch
    Last update: 3:56 p.m. EDT April 28, 2009NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — The notion that the Treasury Department could issue a 50-year bond surfaced in the bond market Tuesday, a day before the government announces its weekly borrowing plans.

  163. Stu says:

    My lord things are cranking the past few days at the old worksite. It seems like we are trying everything in our power to make up for a piss-poor February and March. I don’t even have time to keep up with you guys here.

  164. kettle1 says:

    Fire,

    Maybe that mineralizer is legit, but i wouldn’t touch it. if you want RO water and are concerned about calcium, potassium, and magnesium intake, then take a multivitamin. other wise please feel free to send my your money via paypal, check or cash.

    please note this is the opinion of a janitor ;)

    for example

    100% marketing BS

    In Stages 4 and 5, water travels through special blend of natural Infra-Red and mineral balls. Infra-Red rays are the invisible portion of the sunlight spectrum that has been found to promote growth and health to living cells in plants, animals, and humans. By using a far infrared water filtration system, some have estimated an enrichment of treated water that somehow strengthens various organs within our bodies.

    The recent studies in biotechnology field revealed that the far-infrared rays played an important role for formation and growth of all living organisms. For this reason, these specific far-infrared rays are called “biogenetic rays”. Water and proteins are the integral parts of all living organisms on Earth. Water molecules are always oscillating. If water molecules are exposed to oscillating action of 8-10 micron wavelength (some as wavelength of water molecular oscillation), the “resonance” occurs between the two oscillations.

    CRYSTAL QUEST® Infra-Red and mineral balls have the ability to penetrate the human body in order to activate cells. With continuous movement, the rays are alleged to reactivate cells to help strengthen the micro-circulatory system. The micro-circulatory system is often the cause of various ailments. By strengthening this system, some may reduce or even reverse ailments that have plagued their bodies for years.

  165. NJGator says:

    159 Shore – That should only increase the market value of the property don’t you think?

    There’s another property on the block that is going to sell for even lower.

    These are all going to be comps for the 2010 tax year. Must force the town to settle with us for no higher than $499,999 so we can at least reduce our filing fees for next year.

  166. Sean says:

    Dear China:

    Oh please buy about $5 trillion in 50 year bonds at, say, 4% interest. We promise to pay you back (in 50 years). I’m sure the dollar will be doing great then. And anyway, $5 trillion would go a long way to improving the world’s economy right now and we’d probably use some of it to buy stuff made in China. Win-win.
    Sincerely,
    U.S. Treasury

  167. Sean says:

    For our in house ETF expert Bi.

    Please have your economist who called the end of the recession in the 1st quarter analyze this chart and tell us what is wrong?

    http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=UNG#chart2:symbol=ung;range=1y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

  168. 3b says:

    A wonderful splanch home in a blue ribbon Beregn Co train town for just under 700k!!!

    Impossible you say (gary are you listening)!!!

    Well dreams do come true. So make your dreams come true today.
    Hurry, hurry!!

  169. John says:

    700K is not bad, a splanch is a split and a ranch, that works out to 350K each which is a good pre-bubble price.

  170. bi says:

    173#, Sean. thank you for the chart. seems it is in bottoming process.

    disclaimer: only bottom i know is related to human body.

  171. sas says:

    “$698,000”

    someone is throwing it all against the wall and seeing what sticks.

    SAS

  172. sas says:

    god damn, for some reason I’m in the mood for waffles & maple syrup.

    SAS

  173. Sean says:

    bi – care to make the same call on housing?
    Are we at bottom?

    How about job losses are we at bottom there too?

    How about the cost of Yankees tickets are they bottomed yet?

  174. 3b says:

    #179 sas: must have been all that talk of Vermont yesterday.

  175. John says:

    Housing bottom is directly related to jobs bottom and bi is directly related to Barney Frank’s bottom.

  176. Sean says:

    Just in case you did not get the Yankees reference, the Yankees are having a depression sale.

    “Yankees Slash Premium Season-Ticket Prices by Up to 50 Percent‎”

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601079&sid=aodbzA.z3KtQ&refer=home

  177. sas says:

    interesting piece out of the Huffington post:

    “Swine Flu Outbreak — Nature Biting Back at Industrial Animal Production?”

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-kirby/swine-flu-outbreak—-nat_b_191408.html

  178. sas says:

    Forget Gold
    i might just have to come out of “semi-retirement”

    1oz Opium = $10,000
    http://technorati.com/videos/youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DRGT-0ibPCMk

    SAS

  179. sas says:

    “Bank of Japan governor says US must tackle household debt
    Japan’s central bank chief said on Thursday the United States must take “painful” steps to root out ills such as household debt to pull out of its downturn, warning that stimulus measures alone were not enough”

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/5212044/Bank-of-Japan-governor-says-US-must-tackle-household-debt.html

  180. BC Bob says:

    “Sean. thank you for the chart. seems it is in bottoming process.”

    In 2007, we were bottoming out in RE, dancing at the bottom. It was a much needed pause, pant up demand would then continue the run to newer highs. RE never goes down, they aren’t building land anymore. In addition to this, we are talking about NNJ, it’s just different here. We are joined at the hip with WS. 0 down could buy you $1 mil. PLUNK. Fast forward, now it costs $50 to qualify for a toaster. Yes, there has been a seismatic shift.

    Sorry, bi, old bottoms become new tops.

  181. John says:

    In Japan sleeping in an unacceptable position is a perfectly legitimate reason for the judge to grant a divorce.

  182. Shore Guy says:

    Oh boy! This would be almost as much fun as having someone pluck hairs out of one’s nostrils

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601079&sid=aSxelYfLJZBI

  183. BC Bob says:

    Shore [189],

    Is a psl required to watch?

  184. HEHEHE says:

    I liked the draft the way it used to be where it started at 1 pm, what’s up with this 4 o’clock junk.

  185. A.West says:

    I’m still surprised that NJ real estate prices are declining more slowly than the rest of the country’s. Why is this? Not as many forced sellers in the mix?

  186. Silera says:

    “Wall Street 2” in the works…

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090428/ap_en_mo/us_people_michael_douglas

    I hope they think of a better name.

  187. we says:

    When things get bad, people tend to move to urban areas in search of employment.

  188. jcs says:

    So now that we’ve spent trillions, how about those 3.5 million jobs?

  189. poor guy says:

    jcs 196

    they went to the rich, because as you may know the richer they get, the more jobs they create. recent unemployment numbers is an exception.

  190. Shore Guy says:

    BC,

    No not to watch. The PSL allows you to buy the ticket, and you need the ticket to watch.

  191. Shore Guy says:

    “I n Japan sleeping in an unacceptable position”

    As in the geometryof the sleeping position (her feet come on my side of the bed) or the geography of the sleeping position (she is sleeping at the neighbors)?

  192. grim says:

    When things get bad, people tend to move to urban areas in search of employment.

    Really? Maybe it is different this time.

    From the Boston Globe:

    Locked in place with the housing downturn

    There are few things more American than wanting to buy your own home.

    And one of those things is the freedom to move where you want when you want, whether to a bigger house across town or to a new home and life across the country

    But that simple freedom is now under siege from the housing downturn, with new figures released by federal government showing more people stayed put last year than since the early 1960s.

    The Census Bureau reports the nation’s mobility rate fell to 11.9 percent, with rates of movement between states half of what they were at the start of the decade.

    All told, just over 35 million people changed homes last year, about the same number as 1962, except there were 120 million fewer people then.

    From the NY Times:

    Slump Creates Lack of Mobility for Americans

    Stranded by the nationwide slump in housing and jobs, fewer Americans are moving, the Census Bureau said Wednesday.

    The bureau found that the number of people who changed residences declined to 35.2 million from March 2007 to March 2008, the lowest number since 1962, when the nation had 120 million fewer people.

    Experts said the lack of mobility was of concern on two fronts. It suggests that Americans were unable or unwilling to follow any job opportunities that may have existed around the country, as they have in the past. And the lack of movement itself, they said, could have an impact on the economy, reducing the economic activity generated by moves.

    Joseph S. Tracy, research director of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said the lack of mobility meant less income for movers and the people they employ and less spending on renovation and on durable goods like appliances. But, Dr. Tracy said, the most troubling prospect is that people were no longer able to relocate for work.

    “The thing that would be of deeper concern is if job-related moves are getting suppressed and workers are not getting re-sorted to the jobs that best use their skills,” he said. “As the labor market started to improve, if mobility stays low, you can worry about the allocation of workers.”

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