Bost: Did you read my comment to Vic? I am not agreeing or disagreeing with you. I just do not support throwing an idea out there as if it is common sense, as both clot and you did. You also have to bear in mind that from my perspective, your opinion and clot’s opinion are held in higher regard. I attempted to fist you in the anus because you are credible. I would consider it a complement.

That said, just in the same manner that clot views the economy through his job, I am guessing that you view pricing action through the prism that you are most familiar, which is Forex. So I understand that much of what you see working day-to-day in your shop is going to assist you in building an opinion about stuff….fair enough…

You want my opinion…..as a fundamental guy, the broken record is always….RISK–> REWARD….well one of the completely new themes I’ve heard kicked around is not just a 2D graph (risk/x – return/y, but rather a 3D one……what is the Z-axis? Liquidity. So when we saw everything crash land over the last 9 months, we viewed just as a much a “liquidity” event as everything else.

What is my point? (stop laughing…or cursing)

In the same way that the market funneled almost straight down as liquidity was drained, the reverse can also occur / may be in the process of occurring.

If you’ve noticed, the last two market downdrafts have commenced right after the mid-quarter point when the hedgies began to act on their redemptions. So other than the October barf, we had the Nov 15 to Thanksgiving bowel cleanse, and the February 15th to early March colostomy bag removal. If this “liquidity” trend is worth noting, then you could argue that you would be holding your breath coming up on May 15th. Otherwise, the main driver right now is the “return to liquidity” trade leading into mid-May. Note, it is a broad opinion and I am not trading actively off of it. Also, I think hedgie redemptions are likely slowing, because #1 it is mostly done; #2 the weakest of the stronger hands are out; #3 the fear is transition to being out of an updraft as opposed to being stuck in a downdraft…..

“An analysis of 2008 foreclosure activity by The Record revealed that lenders were at various stages of retaking nearly 370 homes in upper-income towns, where the typical single-family home sold for more than $620,000 in 2007. That was up 177 percent from about 130 cases in 2007 — at a time when foreclosure activity overall throughout Bergen and Passaic counties doubled. And rising jobless numbers means foreclosures are likely to increase in the months to come.”

“One Ridgewood homeowner, for example, owes more than $600,000 on a mortgage and was recently offered $430,000 for the house. The seller is waiting to see if the bank will go along with the deal, Stemple said.”

http://www.northjersey.com/business/realestate/Even_affluent_towns_see_rise_in_foreclosures.html

I thought they never fell. Make up your mind.

Frank,

How could we have hit bottom, after all we never topped out.

That’s too bad. I only look at houses that list t over 20 million.

“Aurora hit hard by recession
Along the Front Range, no ZIP code has been hit harder by the twin blows of foreclosure and unemployment”
http://www.denverpost.com/ci_12281977

SAS

i had a few run in with ol Kemp in DC.
lets just say, he had many faces.

He would want you to do one thing for him, and simultaneously set up a counter team to make sure you didn’t succeed in doing what he just asked you to do. i.e trying to make things look legit when they were not.

then again, in DC thats the name of the game and Kemp just played the game like he did foosball. I’m just a little bitter cause he burned me and got the best of me more than once.

oh well,
SAS