Home prices may not recover for a generation

From Bloomberg:

U.S. Home Prices May Be Lost for a Generation

We might be looking at a lost generation for U.S. home values.

Far too many analysts are calling a bottom to the housing market after home prices in 20 metropolitan areas declined at a slower pace in February, according to the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller Index.

Don’t be blinded by the glint of optimism in headlines about rising consumer confidence and slowing price declines. Demographic and market realities tell a more sobering story.

You won’t see a widespread housing rebound in an economy in which 600,000 jobs a month are lost and foreclosures ravage the most overleveraged areas. These are just the visible barriers to a recovery.

Mortgage lending has also been an unusually tightfisted process of late. Lenders are demanding a 20 percent deposit for home purchases, and want impeccable credit ratings. About 45 percent of U.S. banks surveyed by the Federal Reserve said they had “tightened their lending standards on prime mortgages.” I suspect that number is much higher.

Then there’s the reality that the market is glutted with homes. A record 19 million homes stood empty at the end of 2008.

What you can’t see in the most recent housing numbers is the least-visible driver of home prices today: demographics.

The baby-boomer generation, the largest in American history, will be buying fewer single-family homes.

Although we may not be headed for a 1930s-style Depression, there’s plenty of evidence to suggest that boomers are dumping their four- and five-bedroom suburban homes for two- and three- bedroom condominiums.

It’s also unlikely that the “Generation X,” born between 1965 and 1976 (or more derisively called “baby busters”), will bid up home prices. They are only 44 million strong, not as wealthy and even more in debt from college loans.

The baby boomers are reorganizing their finances after a rocky decade in stocks. They aren’t buying as many second homes and vacation properties in warmer climates.

That’s why it’s unlikely that there will be any swift recoveries in Phoenix, Las Vegas or San Francisco, where prices fell 35 percent, 32 percent and 31 percent respectively in February from a year earlier, according to the Case-Shiller Index. More setbacks are coming in central and Southern California and south Florida.

One thing hasn’t changed in this recession: Those who are mobile will continue to move where jobs are relatively plentiful and housing is cheaper.

It’s time to assess your options. Your home may not be a nest egg. You may never recoup your losses from the dot-com and credit busts in the stock market.

For most homeowners, wealth building and retention may depend more on a diversified, inflation-indexed bond portfolio than on real estate. This new reality, though, may be lost on those still trying to price their homes at 2006 levels.

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

348 Responses to Home prices may not recover for a generation

  1. SG says:

    Frist

  2. grim says:

    From the NJ.com NJ Voices Guest Blog:

    Where New Jersey’s jobs have gone, affordable housing hasn’t followed
    Tim Evans

    The Council on Affordable Housing is charged with implementing the New Jersey Supreme Court’s directive that each of the state’s 566 municipalities provide its “fair share” of low- and moderate-income housing.

    But some critics have argued that the current system scatters affordable housing too broadly, into places where development is not appropriate. They suggest instead that affordable housing be steered toward the state’s older urban centers, close to jobs, public transportation and existing infrastructure.

    On the surface, this argument sounds compelling. It makes sense for those of limited means to live near their jobs, or at least near public transportation that can take them to their jobs. For some lower-income households, owning and operating a car is a luxury. For many others, a long car commute would take a large bite out of their total disposable income. In either case, being able to walk, bike or take transit to work would make life easier.

    But scratch the surface and the argument reveals itself to be dependent on an outdated conception of the state’s job distribution pattern. Two key assumptions — that most job growth is taking place in the older urban centers where affordable housing is already concentrated, and that most jobs are near transit — do not hold up under scrutiny.

  3. grim says:

    From the Star Ledger:

    Recession fuels changes in divorce settlements

    Michelle Copland is 42 and relies on her ex-husband’s child support to cover the growing needs of their two daughters, one a teenager, the other a preteen.

    Scott Caridi is 46 and collecting unemployment as he tries to drum up business for a North Jersey construction company. “If they get work, I get work again.” His own company went out of business.

    The former couple from Bergen County was married for almost 10 years until divorcing in 2003. For most of the time since then, Caridi paid $700 a week in alimony and $500 in child support. When the alimony ended, the child support bumped to $700 a week.

    Then, Copland said, the checks stopped showing up and Caridi fell $6,000 behind.

    With no work and another family to support, Caridi did what a growing number of divorced men and women are doing: They are filing for reductions in alimony and child support obligations.

    While the Administrative Office of the Courts does not maintain statistics on the issue, lawyers and judges across the state say the recession is fueling a dramatic increase in applications to change divorce settlements.

    “You could either call it a tidal wave or a tsunami,” said Frank Louis, a Toms River-based family lawyer who moderated a sold-out seminar last month on the impact the economy is having on family law cases for the New Jersey Institute for Continuing Legal Education. “It is an enormous issue and an enormous problem, both for individuals and the court system.”

  4. grim says:

    From CNBC:

    Filene’s Basement Files for Chapter 11 Protection

    U.S. discount clothing retailer Filene’s Basement, which was recently acquired by an affiliate of the Buxbaum Group, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on Monday, court documents showed.

    In a filing with the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the District of Delaware, the retailer listed liabilities of up to $500 million and assets of up to $100 million.

    Filene’s unsecured trade creditors included CIT Group/Commercial Services and Jones Apparel Group, while the retailer’s unsecured landlord creditors included Best Buy and Federal Realty Investment Trust, according to the filing.

  5. grim says:

    From the Courier Post:

    State government must get smaller

    Latest projected shortfall of up to $2 billion means more cuts will be needed.

    Gov. Jon Corzine delivered more sobering news about the state budget Thursday: Projected state revenues from now through June 2010 are expected to be $1.5 billion to $2 billion lower than expected. That’s lowered from projections already greatly reduced because of the recession.

    What it means is that a state budget already pared down from previous years will need to be cut further.

    Furloughs of state workers will be needed and may have to go beyond one unpaid day off a month for workers.

    Any position that opens in the state government will most likely need to be kept dark.

    Programs will need to be cut; some government functions will simply need to be dropped. There are dozens upon dozens of state boards, commissions and agencies that monitor all sorts of specific things.

    This recession and this latest projection of still lower revenues presents a chance for our spend-happy state lawmakers to make fundamental changes in New Jersey. The government takes in too much of our money in taxes so it can spend too much of our money on a bloated state payroll and a raft of programs and functions that aren’t needed but that an army of special interest groups fight tooth and nail to preserve.

  6. grim says:

    Also from the Courier Post:

    Towns out of options

    Face to face with Cherry Hill Council, township activist Robert Shinn was incredulous.

    Several residents wondered aloud at a meeting last month: Would anyone agree to a personal loan without knowing how much it could cost to pay back the obligation?

    Council members said little in response, but appeared to concede the point:

    They, along with local leaders in at least 70 other New Jersey municipalities, are planning to postpone contributions to the state pension system without knowing how much the decision will cost — or save — taxpayers over the long term.

    At least 10 of those, including Camden, Cherry Hill, Gloucester Township and West Deptford, are in the tri-county region.

    “We don’t think it’s a good idea, but we have no choice,” said Joanne Diggs, township manager in Willingboro. Leaders there are planning to defer about half of the township’s $1 million pension obligation this year.

    “We cut every possible thing out of the budget. But our revenues are so low, we have no choice,” Diggs said, echoing a sentiment voiced across the region.

  7. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    ‘Great Recession’ Will Redefine Full Employment as Jobs Vanish

    Post-recession America may be saddled with high unemployment even after good times finally return.

    Hundreds of thousands of jobs have vanished forever in industries such as auto manufacturing and financial services. Millions of people who were fired or laid off will find it harder to get hired again and for years may have to accept lower earnings than they enjoyed before the slump.

    This restructuring — in what former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker calls “the Great Recession” — is causing some economists to reconsider what might be the “natural” rate of unemployment: a level that neither accelerates nor decelerates inflation. This state of equilibrium is often described as “full” employment.

    Fallout from the recession implies a “markedly higher” natural rate of unemployment, says Edmund Phelps, a professor at Columbia University in New York and winner of the 2006 Nobel Prize in economics. “It was 5.5 percent; maybe it will be 6.5 percent, maybe 7 percent.”

    That has implications for policy makers as well as workers. The Obama administration and the Federal Reserve are counting on the jobless rate to fall to a medium-term equilibrium of about 5 percent as the economy recovers. A natural rate significantly above that would drive up the annual budget deficit — which will top $1 trillion for the first time this year — by reducing tax revenue and pushing up spending on unemployment benefits.

    A higher rate would also require the Fed to make a choice: Accept an economy with more Americans permanently out of work, or try to boost employment at the risk of heating up inflation.

  8. BC Bob says:

    [7],

    We will continue to lose more than 500K jobs a month, into 2010. When the carnage stops there will be no V shaped recovery, rather an elongated L. Everything shrinks; leverage, WS, shelter pricing, standard of living, malls, restaurants, retail, etc., etc..

  9. Clotpoll says:

    BC (8)-

    That’s ok. I hear it’s really easy for most people to get used to being Third World.

  10. Clotpoll says:

    Just keep pumping them full of junk food, TV and charismatic, vapid actors, posing as leaders.

  11. Shore Guy says:

    BC,

    I suspect you are correct about the likely shape of the “recovery.”

  12. Clotpoll says:

    Is there such a thing as a comma-shaped recovery?

    Suck and suckier.

  13. Shore Guy says:

    “The baby boomers are reorganizing their finances after a rocky decade in stocks. They arent buying as many second homes and vacation properties in warmer climate”

    Let us not discount the following either:

    For many families, the boomers were the first ones to buy a vacation home. Now that the “family” has one, once mom and dad are gone, it can be shared and there is no pressing need to go into debt to buy something for occasional use if there is such a property that already exists.

  14. grim says:

    From the Record:

    Franklin Lakes weighs temporary layoffs

    The borough is considering closing municipal offices for two days a month until the end of the year to help balance the budget.

    The Borough Council has introduced an ordinance permitting temporary layoffs so that offices could be closed for two days a month, said Borough Administrator Gregory Hart. A public hearing on the ordinance will be held Tuesday.

    The proposed temporary layoffs would apply to all borough employees except for uniformed police officers, who would fill the shifts of dispatchers on those days, Hart said.

    Closing the offices — a first for the borough — would save approximately $130,000 in the proposed $15 million budget and would affect 45 employees, he said.

  15. badboy says:

    I love this nonsense that dead broke people who gambled away their savings are indicative of economy.

  16. borat obama says:

    Last

  17. BklynHawk says:

    8/BC Bob- I’m a bit more optimistic, but I think it depends on banks being able to lend working capital to businesses.

    14/Shore Guy – Totally agree. Other thing to consider is many kids have moved to other areas of the country so is a vacation home at Lake George practical for a family in NC (as an example). Should start to see more come on the market partly for that reason and party to offset nest egg losses over the last year.

  18. BklynHawk says:

    partly, not party in last sentence. need second cup of coffee.

  19. GerryAdams says:

    From the Progress:

    Roseland lays off 19 in April

    http://www.recordernewspapers.com/articles/2009/05/02/the_progress/news/doc49f9b6ae58684947161413.txt

    “Councilman John Duthie outlined what the municipal tax increase would be, assuming the state grants the cap waiver but does not grant any aid.

    He said the municipal portion of the tax rate for 2008 was $3.169 per $100 of assessed property value. If the proposed budget is approved, the rate would jump 94.3 cents in 2009 to $4.112 per $100 of assessed property value.

    Duthie indicated that property at the current average assessed value of $60,000 would increase $566 to $2,467; a $100,000 assessment would see an increase of $943 to $4,111 in municipal taxes.”

    Tiny towns (and school districts too) like Roseland are getting a smaller and smaller share of the state aid. If they still want the same services, let them raise their taxes by 25%. Motivate them to combine with other nearby towns. Unfortunately, the chances are slim to nil that towns willingly regionalize.

  20. SG says:

    http://inflation.us/

    The National Inflation Association is an organization that is dedicated to preparing Americans for hyperinflation and helping Americans not only survive, but prosper in the upcoming hyperinflationary crisis.

    With an $11 trillion national debt and $55 trillion in unfunded obligations for programs such as Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, it is our belief that the United States for all intents and purposes is bankrupt and Americans need to take steps immediately to protect themselves from the potential loss of the purchasing power of their U.S. Dollars.

    The U.S.’s recently passed $787 billion stimulus plan along with the Federal Reserve expanding its balance sheet by over $1 trillion in a single day brings the total potential outlays from the Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury during the financial crisis up to $13.1 trillion.

  21. BC Bob says:

    “I love this nonsense that dead broke people who gambled away their savings are indicative of economy.”

    [16]

    That’s not my issue. It’s debt levels. In conjunction with this, 70% of the economy was fueled by asset appreciation. Well, that keg has been tapped dry. What’s bext?

    http://www.contrahour.com/.a/6a00d8341d7ef253ef010536f5ba21970c-pi

  22. BC Bob says:

    next.

  23. sastry says:

    Clot and other experts,

    Any thoughts on this place?

    http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/Green-Brook-Twp_NJ_08812_1108832113

    I posted some ramblings yesterday on this but not much information…

    S

  24. Outofstater says:

    #26 That is one scary chart. Now if everything reverts to the mean…..

  25. Clotpoll says:

    sastry (29)-

    Do you intend to buy it, or bid just low enough to lose it?

  26. sastry says:

    SG #28… The Fox guys are going to get tangled up in their contradictions. I would like to see their spin on filibusters, while dems quietly try to work within the limits of the system.

    S

  27. badboy says:

    Leverage is great!!! Home Equity at 3%, invest at 10%!!!!! Having more loans outstanding is meaningless. The meaning is what they are borrowing for. Interest paid to make money good. Interest paid to finance a car that is losing money is bad.

  28. sastry says:

    Clot… hehe… good point. I am thinking of 470 (my budget as of now). Is it worth bothering my buying agent with that figure?

    BTW, the red bud, where I bid low, is still tangled up. Do you have an idea (through MLS or through other sources) of what the winning bid roughly was (I bid 450, quite a bit low…).

    S

  29. Frank says:

    #29,
    Green Brook Twp, NJ for $539,000??
    Is this in pesos?? Are you nuts??? How about $199,000??
    Did you notice that Spanish is the official language in Green brook??

  30. BC Bob says:

    “Leverage is great!!!”

    Fantastic. Dick Fuld, can you hear me?

    “Home Equity at 3%, invest at 10%!!!!!”

    Argument was buried in 2005.

  31. ruggles says:

    That’s not Greenbrook, its Warren Adjacent. Therefore the asking price is justified.

  32. 3b says:

    #36 BC Bob: I cannot believe the OP posted that message. He must have been asleep for the last 8 months or so.

  33. BC Bob says:

    “Home Equity at 3%, invest at 10%!!!!!”

    Are you Mrs. Wantanabe?

  34. BC Bob says:

    3b [38],

    Dead man walking.

  35. SG says:

    The China Bubble – You want fortune cookie?

    “There is more gold in a ton of computer waste than there is in a ton of gold ore.” The reason that the book says it isn’t as cost efective to reclaim the gold in computers, is because it’s very time consuming and labor intensive. Well when you throw a computer away, guess where it usually winds up? And guess which country has an endless supply of cheap labor? I find it funny that another country is getting wealthier on our garbage.

    Ok, now to suppress your fear about China adopting the Gold Standard. They can’t! No matter how much they want to. Why? Because if they did that, they could no longer keep the yaun artificially lower. Think about it! What would keep you or I from selling gold for yuan and converting yaun to the dollar over and over again? They would have to decouple from the dollar to go to the Gold Standard and that would be their downfall. For those of you saying that they will move to a basket of currencies rather than the Gold Standard, What currencies? Most other currencies are in worse shape than ours!. Sadly I think the yaun is tied to the dollar for quite a while.

  36. 3b says:

    Pending Home Sales #’s for March relased today at 10:00 A.M.

  37. Traitor Nom Deplume says:

    Finally! I have been preaching the lead story for 3 years now. Moreover, when (if) the US ever recovers, we won’t recognize it.

  38. stan says:

    Frank-

    Hoboken: that place comes with a tenant.

    Its like a Parisian property, your waiting out the tenant…..

  39. Stu says:

    “Its like a Parisian property, your waiting out the tenant…..”

    Is Frank that tenant?

  40. badboy says:

    B of A says no plans to raise $10 billion in stock

    your move citi

  41. badboy says:

    Mustard Seed School 0.1 mi Private K – 8

    That is the nearby school for that cheap hoboken condo

  42. Sean says:

    re:#44 Frank – perfect for all of those bankers relocating to work in NYC. They can sell their 4 br, 3 bath, 1/2 acre in Charlotte and move the family there.

  43. Stu says:

    “Mustard Seed School”

    Is that adjacent to the Green Shoots Library?

  44. grim says:

    Stu,

    Correct, the library sits on the intersection of Goldilocks Way and Soft Landing Boulevard.

  45. sastry says:

    Clot (or other experts)… What is a good price in your opinion. This is a step about our “dream house” and we’ll buy if the price is within our budget.

    Also, since we are not in a hurry (we have a 60-day notice lease for the next year), we can lowball and wait (with some half-decent chance of getting it).

    BTW, this will be our second bid ever if we get in. Our buyer’s agent is too polite (“put whatever you think is ok” type — anti clot, so to speak). Hence, seeking some input from experts here.

    S

  46. badboy says:

    buyers agent, what you can speak no english?

  47. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    U.S. March pending home sales index up 3.2%

    The housing market improved in March, a trade group said Monday. The pending home sales index rose 3.2% compared with February and was up 1.1% compared with a year earlier, the National Association of Realtors reported. The pending home sales index is based on sales contracts signed on existing homes. “This increase could be the leading edge of first-time buyers responding to very favorable affordability conditions and an $8,000 tax credit,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the real estate group. Sales typically close within six weeks of a signing. At that point, they are included in the existing-home sales report.

  48. Shore Guy says:

    “Our buyer’s agent is too polite ”

    Any agent — literary, music, RE — works on behalf of the client and if there is not a match between their styles, the person being represented should feel free to either insist upon the agent representing them in a certain manner (which the agent is free to refuse, at the risk of losing the client) or obtaining different representation. Agents can act as a buffer between counterproductive client behaviors and getting a deal. That said, if a client does not feel the agent is appropriately representing the client, and is unable to convince the client that the agent’s approach is the one that will bring the greatest benefit to the client, the client should find another agent.

  49. grim says:

    Northeast pending home sales down 5.7% from last month, down 24.1% from last year.

  50. BC Bob says:

    JB [58],

    50% distressed sales?

  51. Shore Guy says:

    “Do you intend to buy it, or bid just low enough to lose it?”

    Clot,

    The latter becomes a form of entertainment. It allows one to get the rush from being in the game with none of the danger of actually winning.

  52. sastry says:

    Shore,

    I have no data points to check how I am aiming: missed by 5%, 10%, 20%? The data point is a 450 bid on a 525 ask (“priced to sell”) — agent said some bids were over the ask, but it is not yet closed, after 45 days of accepting the bid, so we don’t know. Not too much data to decide one way or the other (Clot thinks I am bidding to lose.)

    The falling asks are a good sign (may be Clot’s tomorrow’s prices are arriving sooner than expected).

    S

  53. Shore Guy says:

    Grim,

    Even if home sales were up, if the price keeps deflating, who cares? The “concern” that folks keep pointing to is asset deflation. As long as inventories are high, it seems absurd for folks to point to the increasing numbers of units sold as a sign of a “recovery.” As long as sale prices keep coming down, the same pressure remains on the MBS and everything else related to home prices. Frankly, the more people who sell at the new lower prices, it seems that we are likely to be turinin paper losses into realized losses.

  54. we says:

    “We’re seeing a bubble bursting right now in San Francisco,” says Robert Shiller, an economics professor at Yale University and partner at Case Weiss Shiller. “We’ve never seen such a sharp drop, and we’re expecting it to fall even more.” Shiller, who warned of a stock market bubble in the late 1990s and coined the phrase “irrational exuberance,” believes there’s the risk of a housing bubble in other major cities. At the top of his watch list are Portland, Ore., Seattle, Denver, and New York.

  55. make money says:

    We will continue to lose more than 500K jobs a month, into 2010. When the carnage stops there will be no V shaped recovery, rather an elongated L. Everything shrinks; leverage, WS, shelter pricing, standard of living, malls, restaurants, retail, etc., etc..

    You’ve been saying Japan for a while now. I look at it as best case scenerio at this point.

  56. sastry says:

    Here’s a question:

    How do we reconcile this: “Grim’s comment that a bid 13% under ask is not a lowball, but a gift” versus “Clot’s comment on ‘bidding low enough to lose — at about 13% below ask'”. Of course, it depends on how the property is priced, etc., but…

    S

  57. Shore Guy says:

    Sastry,

    The only data point is what the house is worth to you NOW, and whether purchasing it at that level, with your given downpayment, remaining rainy-day fund, etc, will give you sufficient cushion against: declining asset prices, job loss, etc.

    There is no “magic number.”

    One cannot get fixated on finding “the answer.”

    If the home is only worth, say, 600,000 to you and after you bid on it someone else out bids you, who cares? Since it was not worth, say, 610 to you, you should feel good about losing out.

  58. ruggles says:

    65 – If you can’t get tomorrow’s price today, don’t buy it.

  59. 3b says:

    #68 reuggles: If you can’t get tomorrow’s price today, don’t buy it.

    Vey true. Now if only many of those delusional sellers out there would understand, that you cannot get yesterday’s price today.

  60. relo says:

    Cramer says we’re at the bottom in housing. It’s irrefutable. Show’s over folks. Nothing to see here.

  61. chicagofinance says:

    stan says:
    May 4, 2009 at 9:18 am
    Frank- Hoboken: that place comes with a tenant.
    Its like a Parisian property, your waiting out the tenant…..

    stan: so? wait for lease to end and do not offer renewal…only a bad situation if you intend to be a landlord

  62. sastry says:

    Shore,

    The houses are getting tantalizingly close to what we think we can afford safely (10 to 15% more), hence thoughts of 10-15% low balling. If it hits, we’ll probably be very happy. Since it would be a long term thing, we wouldn’t worry about further price falls.

    S

  63. chicagofinance says:

    New product on the market from Case-Shiller….researching…..

  64. sastry says:

    Oh, boy… Specter is morphing into Michelle Bachmann:

    “Specter went on to suggest that if Republicans had been more aggressive about cancer research, GOP luminary Jack Kemp would be alive today.”

    S

  65. John says:

    I don’t think 13% under asking is a bad offer. They choose to use a realtor so they inflated their price to cover that 6% so you are really offering 7% below asking, not that crazy for a first offer.

  66. Shore Guy says:

    Sastry,

    Throughout this whole process, the key has ALWAYS been what a particular house was worth to a particular person. Some folks got over overexuberant and bid-up the prices of houses; smart folks did not. Notwithstanding where things are currently priced, I would not be inclined to bid $1 above any home’s value to me — even if it means attempting to get tomorrow’s price today, while recognizing that in most instances I would not be successful in achieving my goal.

    In a situation where rents are stable and prices are continuing to fall, and where some “big event” could cause all kind of market mayhem, I would not put myself in a position of making a non-necessary RE purchase, even at tomorrow’s price, since I am persuaded that the price the day after tomorrow will be even lower.

    Of course, individual circumstances will color one’s decision making.

  67. John says:

    good luck with that, do work properly you need to do it parimutuel style and now many people want or understand that style, there will never be a liquid enough market in a bid/ask set up.

    chicagofinance says:
    May 4, 2009 at 10:38 am
    Here….
    http://macromarkets.com/macroshares/documents/roadshow.pdf

  68. sastry says:

    Shore,

    It’s getting to be more of an emotional thing, and the numbers we churned out are manageable without putting a lot of pressure if there is one job loss (two jobs gone => fked anyway after the 6-mo or 1-yr buffer is gone).

    The question I asked my wife was, “if you are told that the price will continue to fall for the next few years, and the house we are looking at is priced in our range, would you buy it”? Her answer was an instant yes… It is the time when a home is a home (with 15% low ball caveat!).

    S

  69. 3b says:

    $70 relo: We might be in places like Phoenix where sold prices have dropped 50% from 2006 peak prices.

    But not here in the NYC metro/northeast area, as the pending homes sales # for this area decliend from February to March 2009.

  70. 3b says:

    #58 grim:Northeast pending home sales down 5.7% from last month, down 24.1% from last year.

    This tells me simply that our area was the last or one of the last areas to peak, and we are still in the process of declining prices. No bottom in the northeast yet.

  71. Shore Guy says:

    In mod

  72. relo says:

    #80 – Agreed, was being facetious.

  73. Comrade nom deplume (for May Day) says:

    [74] sastry

    “Specter is morphing into Michelle Bachmann”

    You could have stopped at morphing. I used to live in PA and Specter is famous for putting his political wet finger in the wind on a regular basis. Used to be he was a rock-ribbed, red meat, conservative that made Santorum look weak and wishy-washy. Then he morphed into a pro-choice, social liberal, fiscal conservative. Now he is ditching the GOP, even though it has not really moved much in the past several years, but the brand has suffered dramatically. And if the Dems tank, guess what, Specter will switch back.

    Now Specter is sounding positively liberal after first saying he would not be a rubber stamp for Obama. Why? He is getting some serious heat and challenge in the primary from real democrats. So he has to run to the left in order to win over enough of them to fend off Sestak and whoever else comes out of the woodwork.

    IMHO, Specter jumped from the frying pan into the fire, at least where the election is concerned. There wasn’t enough evidence to suggest he would lose the GOP primary (he narrowly won it last time, but the brand is so damaged, his margin probably increased, not decreased). So he probably would have won the GOP primary.

    Which begs the question, why switch? Because a flipper like Specter is only viable if he brings home bacon, and PA requires and consumes a lot of bacon. As a Republican, his bacon foraging ability is limited, but as the crucial 60th Dem Senator, he amasses a ton of leverage, which will be rewarded with a shower of pork between the right bank of the Ohio and the left bank of the Delaware.

    Unless he loses. So look for Spector to be selling pork, and lots of it, in the Dem primary.

  74. Shore Guy says:

    Delhi, even, in moderated post about event that would further depress housing prices.

  75. stan says:

    Chifi:Not the case with that place, checked with realtor. Its until the tenant leaves, by choice or boots up. Old school rent control

  76. sastry says:

    Nom… agree. The Michelle Bachmann thing was in reference to a ludicrous argument of Specter. I am all for making fun of GOP and would rejoice in their misery, but Specter’s comment is below the belt.

    If he has b@lls, he should apologize for his war and torture votes (and so should many of the dems). Blaming GOP for a lack of cure for cancer is laughable.

    S

  77. Clotpoll says:

    sastry (61)-

    I know in our little corner of GrimWorld, it seems as though time stands still, but alas, time is actually passing out there in the real world.

    However- without delving into Einstein’s Theory of Relativity- you still cannot get tomorrow’s prices today.

    The fact that you have an agent who will so readily allow you to waste his time is all the proof you need that this agent sucks.

  78. sastry says:

    Clot… Assuming everything else is fine, how much would you suggest as a rough bid? You see the pics, place looks reasonable (ignoring tacky furniture).

    S

  79. Clotpoll says:

    Frank (35)-

    Did you ever think that you might be able to find your long-awaited quant there?

    C’mon dude…put an ad in the local Penny Trader, and see what turns up. And please let us know how it works out.

    “Did you notice that Spanish is the official language in Green brook??”

  80. NJGator says:

    Nom 84 – While the national GOP party may not have changed much recently, about 200k Republican voters in PA swicthed parties last year to vote in the Dem primary. Most of those would be the more moderate voters he would need to win the GOP primary. He had no shot of winning the GOP primary, and pretty much admitted as much when he switched.

    I’m not much of an expert on PA politics, but I have actually heard that in some respects that Sestak is actually more conservative than Spector. True?

  81. Clotpoll says:

    Sastry (90)-

    Dunno. My name’s not going on the deed.

    What’s it worth to you?

  82. Shore Guy says:

    One such issue is the possible collapse of the current Pakistani government.

    Afgh@nistan is now a side show and the locus of anti-T@liban efforts needs to be P@kistan, but can’t be without sparking an overthrow of the government there.

    Keep an eye out for press reports about degredation and concerns about problems with the “national command authority.” A T@liban takeover of P@kistan’s “special weapons” and their lack of certain safety and arm-ing devices makes it possible for the weap0ns to be used should the government fail. One must wonder what the folks of Delhi would do.

    As I understand things, P@kistans “special weapons” lack permissive action links, which makes it a whole lot more likely that a T@liban government could arm the we@pons. Assuming arguend0 that they were unable to arm the we@pons, it is not complicated to dismantle the w@rheads and gain access to the “physics package.” For Pu devices, it provides a substantial amount of highly-portable and p0isonous material for an improvised nucle@r device/dir-ty b0mb.

    If P@kistan’s National Command Authority loses control of even a single one of their special we@pons, and their “Q” areas are scattered all around the country to prevent Indi@ (or the US) from taking-out the entire @rsenal with a successful @ttack on a single location.

    A few mushr00m clouds in South Asi@, one suspects, would have a dep-ress-ive effect on the economy and on housing prices.

  83. Shore Guy says:

    Grim,

    In mod around 92. Can’t find the offending word or phrase.

  84. Shore Guy says:

    “What’s it worth to you?”

    Clot,

    This is the only thing that matters.

  85. sastry says:

    #93… We can manage 450 to 475, and it is a decent house for us. So, it is worth that much now? If we save a few bucks, even better.

    S

  86. Clotpoll says:

    sastry (96)-

    Go back to sleep. Set your alarm for September.

  87. make money says:

    Sastry (65),

    Today, you’re not searching for a huose you like but for a house you like and a “qualified” seller.

    It’s the only way you’ll be able to close on a realistic price.

  88. Stu says:

    Geithner’s New Bank Fix Is Bogus, Too

    http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/240605/Geithner's-New-Bank-Fix-Is-Bogus-Too

    “In other words, Geithner has hatched yet another plan to avoid dealing with the bank problem once and for all.”

  89. Bystander says:

    Dow moves above 8400, up over 2%. I was thinking that traders would pull some profits. What recession? Only up, up, up…

  90. kettle1 says:

    Shore,

    I think that their is a very good argument for war in pakistan purely on economic terms.

    The only way to prevent a catastrophic drop in US GDP is to essentially start a war economy where the government can justify accounting for 50+% of GDP.

    The catch is that unless there is large scale destruction of industrial capacity as a consequence of said war, we would actually end up worse off for having attempted a war economy then if we had avoided it.

    However the failure of an attempt to restart the US economic engine with a war economy jump start will not be the problem of the politicians who initiate the attempt. it will however, be very much a problem for the non-Uber wealthy.

    The other big catch is that while oil and natural gas may be readily available at this point a major war involving asia would likely alter that for a variety of reasons.

    Even if you were able to jump start the us economic engine through a war economy, such an action would require cheap abundant energy for the economy to transition from a war economy to a growing production economy.

    Without cheap abundant energy, an attempted jump start based on a war economy can cause a production collapse.

    -just a janitor who reads to many history and economics text books

  91. we says:

    Cash will be Trash, inflation will kill it.

  92. kettle1 says:

    Shore,

    I have heard from friends in the defense world that the US has a few SF teams that are trained to go into pakistan at a moments notice and either capture or destroy their “special weapons”.

    Even if that is accurate, it would unlikey that they would get 100% of them. It could still be enough to head off a nuclear exchange between india and pakistan, which would seem to be a very possible event on the scenario you propose

  93. #103 – I’d agree that that is the plan. However, in order for it to work inflation has to touch both the buy and sell side. If that doesn’t happen, well the consequences could be rather ugly.

  94. we says:

    The Tablian does not have interest in nuclear war with India. If the Tablian gets hold of special weapons, their targets will be israel, europe and further west.

  95. kettle1 says:

    deflation is quite done yet. Obama is playing with a few trillion here and there while deflation is wiping out wealth on the order of 10’s of trillions and there is still a several 100 trillion $ derivative monster sitting on the global market.

  96. bi says:

    too much for L shape, U shape, V shape and etc. Here is my fianl say: W shape.
    of course it is not my favorite shape. my favorite is S shape.

  97. Sastry says:

    #106… I think the T@liban is a bunch of clueless idiots that focus on petty local cr@p and inflicting horror on local women and men. They can’t take on a major army, at least not without “support” from some major powers.

    S

  98. we says:

    105, Gov has no option but to inflate out of this, cannot pay debt without inflation, impossible.

  99. kettle1 says:

    WE

    i am no expert on pakistan but my understanding is that there are a number of groups that would love to strike india.

    IF the government of pakistan collapses it doesnt seem to be to much of a stretch to one of those groups might be able to acquire a nuke

  100. kettle1 says:

    correction to 107

    deflation is NOT quite done yet

  101. we says:

    #109, clueless idiots is truly underestimating them.

    They have serious ability to disintegrate pakistan, the chaos that follows can give me access to what they want badly. They get no advantage from bombing India, lots of benefits in scaring Israel, Europe and US.

  102. BC Bob says:

    Bi [108],

    W, double dip recession? Back to the 70’s? The bear market lasted 14 years, 68-82.

  103. #110 – The Fed/Treas. can push for inflation all they want. Unless those same inflationary forces also start pushing up wages their efforts will be for naught.
    Declining wages and inflating prices is a recipe for disaster.

  104. we says:

    not ‘give me’…. ‘give them’. I have no use for nuclear assets.

  105. leavingtribeca says:

    Everyday lurker who never posts here:

    If anyone has a moment, thoughts on the property below, fair pricing, and generally living in Monmouth Beach pros/cons? Thanks!
    http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/23-Seaview-Ave_Monmouth-Beach_NJ_07750_1102214744

  106. John says:

    Maybe a little oysters, red bull and viagra is needed Mr.Kettle

    kettle1 says:
    May 4, 2009 at 11:36 am
    correction to 107

    deflation is NOT quite done yet

  107. make money says:

    Can someone ask Bernanke tomorrow how much more he thinks the US accumulated national debt can go to before the paper castle implodes?

  108. chicagofinance says:

    leavingtribeca says:
    May 4, 2009 at 11:40 am
    Everyday lurker who never posts here:

    tribs: there is a poster here called “njcoast” who will be of significant help here…hopefully she will respond….shore guy is also going to be helpful….

  109. kettle1 says:

    Is krugman and idiot of just dishonest?

    -from tosh’s link at 105
    Whatever the specifics, however, falling wages are a symptom of a sick economy -krugman

    If krugman really believes this why is he not screaming for a withdrawal from globalization of the institution of economic levels such that one nation cannot undercut another just by following less restrictive environmental laws or labor laws?

    For someone who has Nobel in economics (an oxymoron really per Nobels original intent of the prize)he is ignoring a number of very simple principles that invalidate his core idea.

    in the simplest model of a market comprised of 2 nations, one with european like labor and environmental laws and the other with chinese like labor and environmental laws. If the 2 nations have free and open markets, then the wage level will be predominantly determined by the cheaper labor market.

    Any situation where a group of nations engage in open markets and do not apply some sort of equalization tariffs to the nations that have less stringent social and environmental standards will see their markets driven down towards the level of the less stringent markets.

  110. we says:

    #115 SOP in US Policy, determine outcome, do whatever it takes to get there. Case in point, Iraq war.
    Declining wages means decline in tax receipts, higher deficits, you cannot get re-relected that way. There are many more acronyms left in the war-chest, TARP, TALF are just the beginning.

  111. #120 – ket – Is krugman and idiot or just dishonest?

    Normally it is phrased as “blatant partisan hack”….

  112. chicagofinance says:

    leavingtribeca says:
    May 4, 2009 at 11:40 am
    Everyday lurker who never posts here:
    If anyone has a moment, thoughts on the property below, fair pricing, and generally living in Monmouth Beach pros/cons? Thanks!

    tribs: As someone who scoped out eastern Monmouth county in the last few months, I will say this about Monmouth Beach….it is isolated and has an extra ten to fifteen minutes to get your way out of there. I assume the best options for NYC transport are to head right up 36 to Sandy Hook for ferry, or else go to the Little Silver train station, because Long Branch is really skanky. Note that Long Branch proper is not nice. Not hellaciously dangerous, just unpleasant, unless you stick right by the beach. Bear in mind that Monmouth Beach is right by the beach. If you sneak out through Oceanport or north through Sea Bright, you do not have to deal with Long Branch proper.

  113. #121 – we – I’m well aware of the Fed and Treas. plan as well as the instruments they’ve created to achieve their ends. My point though; They plan to devalue current debt by sparking inflation. As long as wages are stagnant or actually declining this is not possible, especially if the latter is true.

  114. BC Bob says:

    we [121],

    Are there acronym’s left?

    I agree, they will print to oblivion.

  115. Comrade nom deplume (for May Day) says:

    [92] gator,

    I am aware he thought he couldn’t win the primary, but I do not agree with his thesis unless he thinks the 200K loss would be permanent (and represent actual party shifts, not just GOP voting Dem). Toomey would have been the likely challenger, and while Toomey ran him close last time, I think Toomey would get far less support this time unless Spector thought the Dem brand would NOT sell as it did in 2008, and the only reason for that would be the concentration of the party base after the moderate purge.

    I don’t consider Sestak to be conservative at all. He ran as one in a conservative district, but has been a reliable D vote ever since, which he now has to be in order to keep the Osprey program alive.

  116. make money says:

    As long as wages are stagnant or actually declining this is not possible, especially if the latter is true.

    Tosh,

    This is very much possible. It’s called lower standard of living.

  117. qqq09 says:

    Newbie question: what’s the typical/reasonable deposit to give after the attorney review? Is it 5% of the house price? ie., a $500k house would be about $25k? How can I make it as less as possible, like $10k?

    Thanks in advance!

  118. #117 – I know exactly where that is. I’ll just add a little to what chifi has said.
    This is a block over from a very very busy street during the summer.

  119. leavingtribeca says:

    Thank you, chi fi. I agree on Long Branch and am in the process of evaluating alternative escape routes, avoiding the station at LB. Ferry would have to be the commute for me due to hours.
    Sea Bright seems ok and Rumson is a stone’s throw.

  120. 3b says:

    #101 bystander: What recession? Only up, up, up…

    Recession and up stock market are two very different things.

  121. Comrade nom deplume (for May Day) says:

    “NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — President Obama on Monday spelled out his plans to close corporate tax loopholes on U.S. multinational corporations and crack down on overseas tax havens.”

    Also known as the Tax Attorney Full Employment Act. Booyah!

  122. 3b says:

    #113 we: Pakistan is an artifically created entity;it was stillborn at birth.

  123. #128 – make – This is very much possible. It’s called lower standard of living.

    That’s kind of what I was fishing for. We’d be talking about a very noticeably impacted standard of living as well (IMO).
    There are social implications of proceeding down this course of action that I don’t feel have been fully considered by the current Fed/Treas.
    I’m putting this as delicately as possible…

  124. kettle1 says:

    3b
    you mean like most of africa the middle east?

  125. 3b says:

    #115 toshiro:Unless those same inflationary forces also start pushing up wages their efforts will be for naught

    And in general who is pusing up wages in an environemnt of 600K a month in job losses??

  126. skep-tic says:

    don’t know if it’s been discussed already, but here are the bank stress test assumptions:

    GDP: baseline -2% in 2009, 2.1% in 2010; adverse case -3.3% in 2009, 0.5% in 2010.

    Unemployment: baseline 8.4% in 2009, 8.8% in 2010; adverse case 8.9% in 2009, 10.3% in 2010.

    House Prices: baseline -14% in 2009, -4% in 2010; adverse case -22% in 2009, -7% in 2010.

    biggest red flag for me is general assumption that economy will recover in 2010. I wonder why they did not posit a longer recession.

  127. kettle1 says:

    Tosh,

    why be delicate?

    an illustration of the end result
    http://www.ssvmusa.org/images/brazil/saoPaulo.jpg

  128. BC Bob says:

    “Unemployment: baseline 8.4% in 2009, 8.8% in 2010; adverse case 8.9% in 2009, 10.3% in 2010.”

    skep,

    It’s called crap in, crap out.

  129. 3b says:

    #138 kettle: Yes, The former Europena colonial powers created a mess in many parts of the world, and when it got too hot got out.

    The U.S, stepped in, and now we are getting ourselves stuck in the quagmire.

  130. #141 – Only without the insanely hot wimmens.

  131. 3b says:

    #142 BC Bob: Could we not reasonably see baseline unemployment at around 10% by year end, if we keep getting 600k+ figures a month?

  132. JBJB says:

    [132]

    I live nearby in Middletown – Mom. Beach is nice little beach community. It would be a long haul to the city from there every day however. You probably have 25 min to get up to and park at the Highlands Ferry. If you work downtown w/ little travel once in the city it might not be too bad.

  133. crossroads says:

    ket and tosh

    lower standard of living for those of us who exist after the boomer generation?

  134. sastry says:

    Clot… just to confirm, do you think a 470 offer on a 539 ask (13% lower) has negligible chance of getting accepted? Of course, not all asks are the same, and this one seems to be more reasonably priced than others (though no comps for nearby places). I am stuck at this number because it is risky now for me to go higher… may be by Sep, I may have a few bucks extra.

    S

  135. cobbler says:

    {137} toshiro
    The drop in the purchasing power is inevitable and already happening for a while. We couldn’t have forever avoided it – you could keep the deindustrializing society afloat via debt increase only for so long. How it translates in the quality of life is a different story – that is about perceptions of happiness as much as the material wealth. Creation of European-style social welfare state will do wonders for how the people feel about their life even if the material wealth (measured as whatever gadgets per capita) drops. [As a reference point, check the large article by the U.S. expat living in Holland in yesterday NYT Magazine – can’t link right now].

  136. ruggles says:

    130 – there’s no typical amount, you could possibly get away with 1k with the offer and 9k-15k after atty review. Let the other side ask you to come up and/or prove you have the cash in the bank.

    agents in certain towns will expect and possible direct buyers to put down typical amounts but really its just another tool to make an offer look good. You lowball, put more money down so you look more invested in getting the thing closed. you pay asking price, put less down and the seller takes his chances that you’ll close. like everything else its all negotiable.

  137. make money says:

    #141 – Only without the insanely hot wimmens.

    Tosh,

    Have you visited during the festivities. It makes Bourbon street look like a bunch of ugly amatures.

  138. kettle1 says:

    3b,

    I answered that very question for BC earlier today. here you go:

    http://www.scribd.com/full/14948183?access_key=key-1dwrraig4ys996id22ys

  139. John says:

    NEW YORK (MarketWatch) – High yields bonds returned 11.5% in April amid signs that the depths of the recession may be past, encouraging investors to take on more risky assets, including bonds with below-investment grade ratings. That’s a record for the sector, according to the Bank of America-Merrill Lynch, whose bond indexes are benchmarks for many fixed-income investors. “Stabilizing earnings and some stability in economic data leading to improved consumer confidence fueled a down-in-quality trade in April and large returns in higher yielding asset classes,”

  140. Shore Guy says:

    Chifi,

    Right on about Long Branch. I have never liked that town, not even up by the water. Now, with the condo wall blocking much of the ocean view, fuggedaboudit.

    The other thing about Monmouth Beach is its topography. The highest point in town is something like 5-6 feet above sea level with much of it (and Sea Bright) below that. If you think sea levels are going to stay where they are during the economic life of the structure, maybe buy a home on pilings there, if not….

  141. #150 – cobbler – Creation of European-style social welfare state will do wonders…

    I wouldn’t argue that a large number of people would be better off with such a move. I’d suggest that the social/psychological state that would permit such a transition to take place will not be a pretty one.

  142. #152 – make – Have you visited during the festivities?

    It is on my list of things I really need to do.

  143. Shore Guy says:

    “Pakistan is an artifically created entity;”

    Nothing like naming a place for an acronym.

  144. xmonger says:

    re 140:

    The reality will be worse than the “stress” event.

    I can’t help but be reminded of the of the S&P/Moody models for rating CDO tranches. Their models wouldn’t accept a negative number in the home price appreciation parameter.

  145. #148 – crossroads – lower standard of living for those of us who exist after the boomer generation?

    Yes, it would encompass them as well though. The thought of what a bout of serious inflation would mean for a large portion of the public tie to fixed incomes is unsettling as well.

  146. SG says:

    The problem with housing goes far beyond the supply/demand imbalance. True, buyers are staying away because they know that prices could fall another 15 to 20 per cent, but it’s more than that. The housing crisis has been a shock to the psyche. The dream of home ownership, which is so closely linked to the so-called American dream, has turned into a nightmare. The trauma of watching one’s life savings and retirement vanish in a matter of months has been devastating. It’s not an experience that’s easily forgotten. Naturally, people will be more skeptical in the future about seductive interest rates and other inducements. Keep in mind, that after investors were burned for $7 trillion in the dot.com swindle, tech stocks swooned and the NASDAQ plunged 80 percent over the next year and a half. Housing is headed down that same bumpy path. There probably won’t be an uptick in housing until the market is flat on its back and given up for dead.

    http://www.counterpunch.org/whitney04242009.html

  147. Bystander says:

    3b,

    Understood. I was being facetious. I question where the stock confidence comes from in the face of bad data all around (or minimally improved data).

  148. 3b says:

    #162 SG: And lets not forget 10k a year (in man north Jersey towns) in property taxes and rising with no end in sight.

    This alone has dimmed by enthuaism to purchase again

  149. chicagofinance says:

    leavingtribeca says:
    May 4, 2009 at 12:06 pm
    Thank you, chi fi. I agree on Long Branch and am in the process of evaluating alternative escape routes, avoiding the station at LB. Ferry would have to be the commute for me due to hours.
    Sea Bright seems ok and Rumson is a stone’s throw.

    tribs: have you carefully reviewed the ferry schedules?…..don’t just assume they run all the time….this is not the equivalent of the Weehawken/Hoboken/JC stuff….much less frequent…if you work (not even so) late, you may be forced to take a limo home or train…

  150. chicagofinance says:

    Shore Guy says:
    May 4, 2009 at 12:31 pm
    Chifi, Right on about Long Branch. I have never liked that town, not even up by the water. Now, with the condo wall blocking much of the ocean view, fuggedaboudit.

    shore: Since we moved over to Colts Neck, I tried to figure out a way to Pier Village without having to drive on 36. I took 18 down to W Park Ave and sliced through the top of Ocean, then cut through Elberon on Park Ave, and then north up the road that hugs the beach. I didn’t know this…Elberon is bitchin’….

  151. 3b says:

    #163 bystander: IMO the confidence comes from hope, that things will get better.

    That to me is a very dangerous investing strategy.

    I know the market is forward looking, but IMO it has gotten way ahead of itself.

    There is IMO nothing on the horizon yet that should indicate to investors that it is time to look forward.

    When we bottom out on unemployment numbers, thanwe can start talking about looking forwars from an investment view point.

  152. daddyo says:

    #160 – “I can’t help but be reminded of the of the S&P/Moody models for rating CDO tranches. Their models wouldn’t accept a negative number in the home price appreciation parameter.”

    That’s one of my favorite anecdotes about the entire position we are all in right now.

  153. Stu says:

    Sastry,

    Stop sweating mass opinion here and listen to Shore. Maybe you’ll get lucky. Otherwise, no harm done. Do not stretch into home in this environment. Even with the possibility of inflation helping you out down the road.

  154. leavingtribeca says:

    Chi Fi, Toshiro, Shore; Thanks for all this. I read in the NY Times about fairly recent projects to project the shoreline and preserve it in MB and other shore towns. Due to these projects, some homes on Seaview are not even considered to be on a flood plane, though I am concerned about this. My commute time is pretty stable. Did notice the ferry from Highlands is an all or nothing proposition – if you miss it – SOL. I guess another option is to drive to JC and take the ferry across since I work in the WFC area.

  155. Nicholas says:

    Unemployment recovers AFTER things start getting better. By the time unemployment numbers bottom out you have missed most of the investment opportunity.

  156. 3b says:

    #154 kettle: Thanks, as always for the analysi. I tell you for a janitor, very impressive.

  157. james says:

    Im at the shore. I am seeing houses selling even at 2004 – 2005 ish prices. I would say the range is 400k to 900k. Good house in good location and its not taking long to move it.

    Some of the buyers are NYer’s. Looks like the bennies are our new neighbors.

    Love all the inflation/hyperinflation conversation. I gave up on gold at its current prices. Even though I pulled the trigger once and then bailed out. Too expensive right now, I missed the boat. Ill be using my 30 year fixed sub 5% mortgage as a hedge. Now what to do with the cash is another unsolved story. No other interest bearing debt. I am studying investing in commodities. I might take a stab at it.

  158. 3b says:

    #171 nicholas: When unemployment stops rising,a nd bottoms out at a high level, than I will be convinced the turnaround,and the opportunities start.

    This rally in the market now, IMO os a bear market rally. I am positioned here and there to try and capitalize off it, but nothing more.

    Much institutional money is sitting on the sidelines, with a fair amount of renewed retail interest (never a good sign in my opinion).

  159. chicagofinance says:

    leavingtribeca says:
    May 4, 2009 at 12:55 pm
    Chi Fi, Toshiro, Shore; Did notice the ferry from Highlands is an all or nothing proposition – if you miss it – SOL.

    NY Waterway to Pier 11…
    Pier 11 is Wall and Water….just south of Seaport
    http://www.nywaterway.com/Home/RidetheFerry/SchedulesRoutes/ViewSchedule/tabid/133/Default.aspx?ID=120

  160. WickedOrange says:

    “Pakistan is an artifically created entity;”

    So is Sea Bright, NJ. Take away the sand replenishment and you have million dollar homes under water come the first Nor’easter.

  161. we says:

    I cannot fathom risking entire porfolio in Cash or Cash Equivalents at this time. The Risks are just too great.

    And, yes, Pakistan is likely to disintegrate like former Yugoslavia.

  162. skep-tic says:

    Went to an open house yesterday that I think is pretty illustrative of the generational shift that is happening in suburban RE and will continue for the next several years. Couple had 3 kids in college and the fourth was about to graduate from high school in a month (the thought of 4 kids in college simultaneously is brutal).

    Anyway, these people have had their house on the market for 3 months already. They are not wasting any time bailing out of their high tax, high cost town. As soon as the last kid is out the door, they intend to be gone.

    Only problem for them is that they are pricing at 2006 level. Maybe when the fourth tuition bill comes in August they will get serious.

  163. chicagofinance says:

    The end is nigh….
    John Wayne Bobbitt and Lorena reunite….

    http://www.nypost.com/seven/05042009/news/nationalnews/no_hard_feelings_167513.htm

  164. 3b says:

    #177 we:I cannot fathom risking entire porfolio in Cash or Cash Equivalents at this time. The Risks are just too great.

    Could be, but the risks are just as great IMO on the other side.

  165. grim says:

    From the Sports Business Journal:

    Nets cut front office staffing, lay off 10

    The New Jersey Nets have laid off 10 front office employees as part of cost-cutting measures that come after Nets Sports & Entertainment lost $27.8 million in fiscal 2009. “In times like today, you have to look at being more efficient and we have done that,” said Brett Yormark

  166. 3b says:

    #178 skeptic: I expect to see some of the biggest cheerleaders of uncontrolled school spending, will be bailing out of their towns once the last kid is done in H.S.

    They might be surprised to find out that the same children you claimed you did this for, might not be happy with the bill, I mean gift you left them with.

  167. we says:

    #180 Could be, but the risks are just as great IMO on the other side.

    Lot more people have debt than cash, I suspect they will get better treatment.

  168. BC Bob says:

    “The New Jersey Nets have laid off 10 front office employees as part of cost-cutting measures”

    Better idea, cut 1-10, off the bench.

  169. kettle1 says:

    chifi,

    would any guy out there ever remove his trousers again in the presence of the woman who cut it off before????

  170. skep-tic says:

    3b– I look at buying a house in the suburbs as a 20 yr proposition. I am sure many people feel the same way. If this is your mindset, then it is rational to approve wild spending on schools since your thinking is relatively short term. It is obviously unsustainable over the long term but most people do not care.

  171. james says:

    Why anyone would retire in NJ is beyond me. The only argument I can understand is the friends and family one.

  172. chicagofinance says:

    kettle1 says:
    May 4, 2009 at 1:23 pm
    chifi, would any guy out there ever remove his trousers again in the presence of the woman who cut it off before????

    ket: not everyone is a robot…

  173. chicagofinance says:

    james says:
    May 4, 2009 at 1:30 pm
    Why anyone would retire in NJ is beyond me. The only argument I can understand is the friends and family one.

    jim: airport with direct flights to anywhere; restaurants; NYC; Boston to DC less than one day’s driving distance; moderate weather, but still all four seasons;

  174. BC Bob says:

    “Why anyone would retire in NJ is beyond me.”

    Reuben sandwhich and Iced Tea’s at Kelly’s?

  175. Comrade nom deplume (for May Day) says:

    [187] James

    You could retire across the river in PA and it would be a helluva lot cheaper taxwise. And you still have proximity to friends and family in NJ.

    FWIW, I know a sr. fed. dist. ct. judge that is mulling a move across the river from Trenton. The judge’s commute would be shorter and state taxes would drop to zero on income because the judge is retired though still draws a salary for hearing cases.

    Hmmm. 8% effective tax rate versus zero?
    Hmmm. NJ property taxes v. Bucks cty.?

    Sounds like a no brainer to me.

  176. crossroads says:

    176

    “So is Sea Bright, NJ. Take away the sand replenishment and you have million dollar homes under water come the first Nor’easter”.

    the river was always the problem on my street. granted the replenishment project helps. but the river still has to be a big problem. my father always said they shouldn’t have built there.

  177. 3b says:

    #186 skeptic:It is obviously unsustainable over the long term but most people do not care.

    I would argue that the long term is already here.

  178. we says:

    Lots of people offically ‘retire’ in FL with no State Income Tax and homestead exemptions. However, they do spend a lot of time in NJ.

  179. John says:

    Three problems with a quick housing recovery, first jobs, second McMansions are dead and out of style, third historically housing has been a worse investment than bonds or stocks.

    So this moment if I am unsure of my job am I willing to liquidate stocks, bonds and CDs just as they are recovering to buy a house when homes are still falling only to be made fun of as what type of idiot buys a trade up house while the market is still falling.

  180. BC Bob says:

    From Mish;

    “Deepening the economic gloom in Europe, the European Union admitted Monday that its previous forecasts were way off the mark. It now predicts “a deep and widespread recession” across the continent and says unemployment among nations using the euro currency will rise to a postwar record of 11.5 percent in 2010.”

    “The EU is now expecting a contraction for two straight years, even IF the banking sector recovers and world trade turns around. This is in sharp contrast to never ending the talk of “green shoots” in the US with many US economists predicting the recession will end in the second half of 2009.”

    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

  181. waters says:

    I follow the sales in Kinnelon fairly closely as I’d love to buy there someday. The sales published this week have been pretty encouraging given that most of NNJ seems to be selling at mid-2004 values.

    173 Kakeout Road, sold for $490k, previously sold $495k May 2002.

    2 Beechwood Terrace, sold for $600k, previously sold $575k Jan 2002.

    29 Round Hill Road, sold for $505k, previously sold $475k July 2000.

    Small sample size, but it’s nice to see homes selling @ 2002 and earlier levels. The previous sales were looked up on Zillow– hopefully they’re accurate.

  182. we says:

    John, who is a greater fool in the eyes of others, buying too soon or missing the bottom.

    If you don’t care what others think then buy when you want to.

  183. sastry says:

    #191 Nom…

    Someone I know has a McMansion in Princeton, pays over 25k taxes and has no kids, and the couple is in mid 50’s. They like the place… I am sure they would never move elsewhere.

    S

  184. BC Bob says:

    [198]

    You’ll be in much better shape if you buy 5 years too late as opposed to 1 year too early.

  185. r says:

    I live in Monmouth Beach.

    I moved there from Hoboken but already knew the area well since that’s where I grew up. It’s a long commute but I had enough of Hoboken after 5 years and 2 kids later.

    I take the bus to midtown in the morning and take the train home at night. Other people take the ferry and still others take the train.

    Some people who take the train park in Little Silver instead of Long Branch. Long Branch is closer but Little Silver can get you home 10 minutes earlier on many nights. (Since LB is the last stop, it often has to wait for the train in front of it to move.)

    My problem with the ferry is getting out of the lot once you get to the highlands. On just my street there are probably 5 guys who take the ferry in the morning. Wouldn’t be surprised if 25% of the town works in the city. Ideally, if you work down town its better but plenty go to midtown.

  186. Clotpoll says:

    sastry (149)-

    Given that house and its quality, I just don’t see it going for under 500K…yet.

    Hey, you said it: it appears more reasonable than nearby listings. That will generate the showings that will at least get it sold, as they’ve fulfilled Clot’s Requirement #1: undercut thy neighbor.

    Even if they don’t get asking, I cannot see them getting much less (if any) than 500K.

  187. skep-tic says:

    White House Denies Charge By Attorney that Administration Threatened to Destroy Investment Firm’s Reputation

    A leading bankruptcy attorney representing hedge funds and money managers told ABC News Saturday that Steve Rattner, the leader of the Obama administration’s Auto Industry Task Force, threatened one of the firms, an investment bank, that if it continued to oppose the administration’s Chrysler bankruptcy plan, the White House would use the White House press corps to destroy its reputation.

    http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2009/05/bankruptcy-atto.html

  188. Clotpoll says:

    make (152)-

    Mardi Gras has always been an overrated grossout. A bacchinalia for the redneck set, as it were.

    My recurring mental image of the ones I’ve attended are the constant presence of tr@nsvestites peeing off balconies.

    But I haven’t been back since the invention of Girls Gone Wild, so I may have missed a few things.

  189. kettle1 says:

    SHore,

    OT question for you.

    If during WWII both perpetrators of acts that were then called torture and are now call interrogation and their superiors who gave the orders were prosecuted and convicted. During this period, the idea of “just following orders” was considered an insufficient excuse.

    How does the US have any moral authority if it were to not hold its own people to those same standards.

    I ask because if i remember correctly you have stated that you believe action should not be taken on american perpetrators.

  190. we says:

    #200 You’ll be in much better shape if you buy 5 years too late as opposed to 1 year too early.
    ——

    Based on what. Are you predicting 1 year drop will not recover in 5 years of gain??

  191. Clotpoll says:

    BC (184)-

    The Nets could replace 2-3 bench players with one:

    Gheorge Muresan

    This dude blocks out the sun. He’s like Manute Bol with actual muscles between his skin and bones:

    http://www.espn.go.com/media/pg2/2005/0928/photo/g_muresan_195.jpg

  192. sastry says:

    kettle1 #205

    Don’t you know, 9/11 changed *everything*!

  193. Clotpoll says:

    Too bad he can’t shoot the three-ball like Manute, though…

  194. Clotpoll says:

    Any game of the Bulls-Celtics series was better than any March Madness game this year.

  195. sastry says:

    Clot… thanks. I will wait till I can meet the 500 number halfway (plenty of fish in the sea…) on its descent with a few bucks saved in the next few months.

    S

  196. veto that says:

    Sorry if its been posted already. Its about the MLS and online listing services in nj.

    NY Times: Cracking the Home Address Code

    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/03/realestate/03njzo.html?_r=1&ref=realestate

  197. Clotpoll says:

    vodka (185)-

    Depends on the incentive.

    “would any guy out there ever remove his trousers again in the presence of the woman who cut it off before????”

    Thus ends today’s episode of Clot Trying to Channel John.

  198. Clotpoll says:

    plume (191)-

    I really think Rendell should send a note to Trenton once he’s managed to completely rob NJ of every good business and taxpayer we have.

    BTW, I don’t think there’s anything wrong with that.

  199. 3b says:

    #206 we: Bought my first house in 1987 during that housing bubble.

    Sold it 10 years later for $2500 less than what I paid for it, minus all the improvements, in a Bergen co blue ribbon train town.

  200. Comrade nom deplume (for May Day) says:

    [199] Sastry,

    Good for them. I have no problem with their decision (except to the extent it sets the bar and makes it harder for others to keep pace).

    In fact, could you prevail upon them to contribute a bit more to the state, and take some of the burden off me?

  201. leavingtribeca says:

    Chi Fi (175) …meant maybe drive to Jersey City and take the water taxi/ferry which runs every 15 min or so in order to have more flex on times. Does anyone do that?

  202. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    Most banks tighten credit standards further, Fed

    The credit squeeze on the U.S. economy worsened in the past three months, with most U.S. and foreign banks operating in the United States reporting tighter standards on potential borrowers, the Federal Reserve reported Monday. Large majorities of banks surveyed said they had further tightened requirements on borrowers for most kinds of business and consumer loans. Most of the banks reported weaker demand for loans, and almost all said they expected more chargeoffs and delinquencies on bad loans in coming months.

  203. Traitor nom deplume says:

    [215] clot

    What I find astonishing is that Corzine is quick to ignore the obvious buttplumbing that he is getting from his “good friend.” Rendell promises tri-state cooperation and then proceeds to actively and openly raid NJ. Even the slots initiative that he pushed was an open raid on NJ and DE’s gaming business. Look where the casinos are located—across the river from NJ.

    Of course, Rendell is also putting it to Philadelphia, even though it is his core constituency. Few of the jobs being created are in Philly, and his actions are likely steering some employers away from Philly. But he can always rely on the philly vote, so it’s all good.

  204. John says:

    Not something you see everyday, A rated short term bank bond trading under par with a coupon over 10%

    NCNB CORP SUB NT 10.20000% 07/15/2015
    Basic Analytics
    Price (Ask) 96.375
    Yield to Worst (Ask) 11.016%
    CUSIP 628855AN8
    Coupon 10.200
    Maturity Date 07/15/2015
    Moody’s Rating A3
    S&P Rating A-

  205. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    Fed Says U.S. Banks Expect Loan Losses to Deepen This Year

    Most U.S. banks expect loan delinquencies and losses to increase this year, a Federal Reserve report showed today ahead of this week’s release of stress tests of the nation’s 19 largest lenders.

    More than 70 percent of respondents on net said bad loans will rise should the economy progress “in line with consensus forecasts,” the Fed said in a quarterly survey of banks’ senior loan officers. More firms made it tougher for consumers to get home and credit-card loans in the past three months, while fewer tightened terms for businesses than in the previous survey.

    The report indicates that signs of stabilization in the U.S. economy aren’t resulting in an easing in lending terms. Banks are hoarding a record $1.1 trillion of cash even after the Treasury and central bank made emergency capital injections and set up special lending programs to ensure lenders extended credit to households and businesses.

    “The vast majority of domestic and foreign respondents indicated that they expect deterioration in credit quality for all types of business and household loans,” today’s Fed report said.

  206. BC Bob says:

    [206],

    That’s exactly what I’m saying. Why do you assume, after the last year of declines, that the next five will bring annual gains? How about a slog? See Japan.

  207. sastry says:

    Nom… more on the line of why people stay where they stay — despite very high property taxes. May be friends, family, prestige, whatever. Property taxes are one major dimension, but so is property resale value, etc.

    S

  208. sastry says:

    more along the line of… rather

  209. HEHEHE says:

    Loan losses to deepen, lending standards continue to rise…Rally On! Green Shoots!!!

  210. sastry says:

    3b… how would you rate the experience? Was the feeling of owing a house worth it? Or, the drop in prices was a bother?

    S

  211. make money says:

    “The EU is now expecting a contraction for two straight years, even IF the banking sector recovers and world trade turns around.

    BC,

    What if they don’t recover? Yikes!

  212. Traitor nom deplume says:

    [224] sastry

    Let me be clear—I am not questioning your friend’s motivation in staying in a high tax jurisdiction. I will assume he is rationale and made a rationale choice. Besides, it’s his money and I don’t tell people how to spend it unless they pay me to tell them.

    As far as resale, tell him good luck with that. I don’t see it but he might. Who am I to say?

  213. make money says:

    Loan losses to deepen, lending standards continue to rise…Rally On! Green Shoots!!!

    HEHEHHEHE,

    I just loaded some more SRS. I swear if this thig doesn’t get to into 30’s soon I’m gonna sue the PPT group. Is it raining in the caribean?

  214. 3b says:

    #196 BC Bob: the US with many US economists predicting the recession will end in the second half of 2009.”

    I guess they did not get the message, because bi said the recessio never was.

  215. HEHEHE says:

    Make,

    I’d be nervous but for the fact these clowns have to root through every government release to find some miniscule datapoint to claim some sort of “green shoot” and when it’s fully examined you realize it’s shown to be complete bs.

  216. Victorian says:

    This is now a Costanza market. Do the opposite of what you think you should do!

  217. 3b says:

    #227 sastry: No I do not think it was not worth it.But we were not the only ones, and we like many others did not cry about it, simply stayed and paid our mtg (what a novel idea for today).

    People can say what they want, but at the end of the day most people are not going to say “oh I don’t care what my house is worth, I bought it to live in, yada, yada, yada.

    People can be OK with flat, but down, no. That is human nature IMO when it comes to real estate.

    Had we waited we could have gotten a better house at a huge discount from the peak prices at the time.

    But we were young, and the belief at the time was twofold. 1. Buy now or be priced out forever. 2. You never lose money in real estate, As is the case now, both turned out to be wrong.

  218. Clotpoll says:

    plume (220)-

    The final proof that Corzine is a complete dolt…and a clueless egomaniac.

    No real balls-out GS’er would ever get taken to the cleaners the way Corzine has been by Rendell.

  219. Clotpoll says:

    sastry (224)-

    Please buy a clue.

    Or, please remember to turn out the lights…since you’ll be the last one out.

  220. Clotpoll says:

    I’m helping the former COO of AT&T move to PA.

  221. Clotpoll says:

    So much for address and prestige.

    This guy just can’t stomach that his pension will be taxed in NJ. He is, roughly speaking, a gazillionaire.

  222. skep-tic says:

    if you are upper middle class and have kids you have a couple of options. 1 is to move to a lower cost area and do private school. 2 is to move to a high cost/high tax area and do public schools.

    There is a private school tuition bubble in the first option and a real estate/ property tax bubble in the second option (ghetto areas have already fallen much harder in terms of house prices).

  223. Traitor nom deplume says:

    [235] clot

    “No real balls-out GS’er would ever get taken to the cleaners the way Corzine has been by Rendell.”

    I had not thought of that, but you are right. God, I hated dealing with GS people. We would mock them after conference calls. GS was an inside joke in our department for insufferable tools. But they always got what they wanted.

  224. Traitor nom deplume says:

    [237] clot

    I trust that was public information? It is now anyway.

  225. John says:

    Home is just a stack of sticks to place your head at night, it is not an investment.

  226. sastry says:

    #236 Clot…

    I am just guessing as to why this guy is staying in Princeton without needing the top schools. I’m not saying I’d do it. And that guy is loaded, and most likely 25k is peanuts for him.

    S

  227. John says:

    25K is around 10% of pretax income to the average well off Princeton family, not a huge sum for someone with 3 kids to guarantee top notch public school edudcation.

  228. HEHEHE says:

    2) Headlines vs. Math

    Headlines this morning are screaming with some rather bullish notes on the market’s rally off the recent lows. But it’s a classic case of bullish headlines versus mathematics.

    Headline: Stock Market Up 31% Since Bottom Eight Weeks Ago

    Math: This simply means if you were down 57% as of eight weeks ago… you are now only down 44%. 3) What Happened to the Stress Test?

    On top of all the Chrysler fiasco, what should have been the one slam dunk for the government among all the weirdness – the farce that is known as “stress tests” for the banks – has been delayed.

    Why? Because some banks are objecting to government the findings, especially the need to raise more capital.

    What has the world come to when banks and regulators can’t agree on the right fictional outcome for these fictional “stress tests”?

    It’s the movie equivalent of a major studio delaying its summer blockbuster until the fall so they can reshoot the ending to appeal to early screening focus groups.

    http://www.minyanville.com/articles/GS-rimm-buffett-C-jpm-wfc/index/a/22521/p/1

  229. Stu says:

    2:59PM S&P puts ratings on 23 financial institutions on watch negative : Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services placed its ratings on 22 U.S. large complex and regional banks and one thrift, as well as their related entities, on CreditWatch with negative implications. The CreditWatch placements relate to an ongoing industry review. The analysis of industry fundamentals, with a focus on the capitalization of the identified companies in the context of the expected level of losses during the next two years, suggests that the likelihood of negative rating actions has increased. These rating actions identify companies that S&P believes has at least a one-in-two likelihood of a one-notch or multiple-rating downgrade within 90 days. That said, S&P believes that most rated institutions will be able to earn their way out of these credit losses during the cycle. (AF, ASBC, BAC, BBT, C, CMA, COF, CRBC, FINN, FITB, HBAN, KEY, RF, SNV, SUSQ, TSFG, USB, WBS, WL, WTNY)

  230. sastry says:

    SKF under 50??

    S

  231. John says:

    HE HE, except market can only go up when new money enters, the person on the sidelines who did not buy in last eight weeks is now down only 44%. The double down crowed who put fresh money on the table is a lot better off. The trick is for the double down crowd to pull some of the fresh money off the table before the next dip. Easier said than done. In the last three months I put a lot of new money to work, cash on the sidelines, margin etc. It needs to earn it’s keep.

  232. scribe says:

    james, #187

    It used to be a nice place before taxes got way out of line.

    Moderate climate, proximity to NYC, Philly, and Boston.

    Years ago, I did a lot of traveling on assignment. Felt minor quakes in CA., heard the tornado warning horns in Cleveland, and it struck me how NJ and NY have relatively little in the way of natural disaster wipeouts.

    Both NJ and NY need to get rid of “politics as usual” and get back to fiscal soundness. But before that happens, my guess is that both states will have to really hit bottom, with a lot of the population leaving. Sad, if you’ve been here for a lifetime.

  233. John says:

    That is a huge buy indicator!!!! They are always wrong. I own C, CMA, COF and FITB bonds and I will sleep like a baby tonight knowing S&P just sent out a buy signal.
    That said, S&P believes that most rated institutions will be able to earn their way out of these credit losses during the cycle. (AF, ASBC, BAC, BBT, C, CMA, COF, CRBC, FINN, FITB, HBAN, KEY, RF, SNV, SUSQ, TSFG, USB, WBS, WL, WTNY)

  234. chicagofinance says:

    Clotpoll says:
    May 4, 2009 at 2:25 pm
    Too bad he can’t shoot the three-ball like Manute, though…
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BXvxgmUk5e0

  235. Stu says:

    “That is a huge buy indicator!!!!”

    So both bi and the S&P are both inverse indicators. Where does that leave the writedowns which were supposed to have ended some time in late 2007?

  236. JBJB says:

    leaving tri

    “Did notice the ferry from Highlands is an all or nothing proposition – if you miss it – SOL. I guess another option is to drive to JC and take the ferry across since I work in the WFC area.”

    There are also ferry departures at Atlantic Highlands and Belford terminals. The Belford terminal is a different outfit w/ different scheudle so you might be able to catch one there if you miss the Higlands one.

  237. chicagofinance says:

    leavingtribeca says:
    May 4, 2009 at 2:43 pm
    Chi Fi (175) …meant maybe drive to Jersey City and take the water taxi/ferry which runs every 15 min or so in order to have more flex on times. Does anyone do that?

    tribs: Of course, but the JC off-ramp from the Turnpike Extension is designed poorly. Caught at the wrong time, it is a cluster French Connection UK. Good news is that the Driscoll Bridge just opened the third overpass, so no more I-287 Backup on the GSP heading out of Monmouth County. You can bypass and get right to the NJTP.

  238. make money says:

    #196 BC Bob: the US with many US economists predicting the recession will end in the second half of 2009.”

    John says it’s over cause he can’t afford to buy a case of beer and a few burgers and hot dogs.

  239. chicagofinance says:

    Clotpoll says:
    May 4, 2009 at 3:22 pm
    I’m helping the former COO of AT&T move to PA.

    clot: Shoot; the bankers told me they had poisoned him; liars!

  240. 3b says:

    #239 skeptic; True. However, at elast with private school tuition, once you are done, you are done. With the public school/property taxes, you pay forever.

  241. 3b says:

    #224 sastry:Property taxes are one major dimension, but so is property resale value, etc.

    The property taxes are going to kill the property values in many, many areas, Something so many people cannot or will not understand. But it is really quite simple.

  242. sastry says:

    3b… Actually, that is one fear of mine — we may have a lower income and higher savings in the longer run, and could get hit badly with property taxes. But the main hope is that it wouldn’t spiral out of control. Just like the rising prices were unsustainable, I think the rising taxes will also be unsustainable. After a while, parents may start relenting on class size, etc. I have no idea about what the future holds in terms of taxes and rates, but just hope for the better…

    S

  243. Poser says:

    we says:
    May 4, 2009 at 1:46 pm
    Lots of people offically ‘retire’ in FL with no State Income Tax and homestead exemptions. However, they do spend a lot of time in NJ.

    And they get nailed during NJ tax audits, as residents of the State and get assessed back taxes for all the years they “retired” to Florida. The NJ CPA Society has frequent meetings on this issue.

  244. Zack says:

    This bear market rally has sucked the living daylights of those who were long the ultrashorts..ie..SKF,SRS etc.
    Many retail investors new to the game and piled on to it couple of months ago hoping for a quick double have lost their shorts.
    This is how GS makes money.
    I see more pain ahead for the shorts..

  245. Frank says:

    SRS bagholders, welcome to 20, I will see you at 16.

  246. John says:

    make money says:
    This recession is long over, jobs that are not worth saving won’t be saved and people who bought house they could not afford are cooked. The rest of us working and god fearing middle class folks are enjoying our cheap gas, cheap new cars, cheap vacations and restaurant deals. Plus a HUGE Bull market!!!!!!!! Now lets bottom out those houses, attention buyers please cut your prices by 25% so I can start buying your homes.

    May 4, 2009 at 3:54 pm
    #196 BC Bob: the US with many US economists predicting the recession will end in the second half of 2009.”

    John says it’s over cause he can’t afford to buy a case of beer and a few burgers and hot dogs.

  247. cobbler says:

    [239] skeptic
    The property tax on a similar house is more or less similar anywhere in the county except for the Abbott towns (most of the tax is school costs, which are not that much different town to town; Essex is an anomaly since there Newark, etc. chew a lot of county tax for non-school stuff). Living in an Abbott town may be attractive to some, but even if your kids go to the private school there still is a safety issue – also, if the potential public unrest discussed on this blog many times ever materializes, you have a problem bigger than the property tax…

  248. HEHEHE says:

    Hahaha, you only lose on paper unless you sell. They’ll only get my shares out of my cold dead hands:)

  249. Alap says:

    N.J. insurer Horizon to shed 253 jobs

    Facing lagging enrollment and falling revenues, Horizon Blue Cross/Blue Shield of New Jersey said today it will shed 253 jobs throughout the state.

    The job cuts include laying off 170 employees — effective this afternoon — and eliminating 83 open positions. The company declined to say what kind of positions were terminated.

    The state’s largest health insurer is forecasting a slight dip in enrollment due to rising unemployment and employer benefit cutbacks — something that hasn’t happened in nearly a dozen years, said spokesman Daniel Emmer.

    Besides the layoffs, the firm is also slashing advertising and travel costs to reduce operating expenses.

    “This is a sad day for the company, but it’s critical that we do this for the company’s future,” said Emmer.

    The Newark-based company employs more than 5,000 people throughout the state.

  250. Zack says:

    This market euphoria feels lke Oct and Nov 08 except that it is opposite..ie stock prices going up

  251. John says:

    Zack when will it crash again, I am for once sitting on paper profits. I actually did break down and buy some common stock at 49 that is now 77 a few weeks later. That is good stuff. So far I love the new prez

  252. make money says:

    John,

    If the recession is over why is my rent roll short anywhere between 6-8K per month yoy.

    For all those that work for a paycheck, and are not about to retire there was never a recession as long as you didn’t loose your job. You get the same pay and everything is cheaper. However, every single business owner is hurting and broke.

    However, for around 20% of the people who are laid off or dislocated working part time they’re in a depression.

  253. we says:

    SKF & SRS at lowest level ever?

  254. make money says:

    Zach, Frank,

    I eat SRS for breakfast and added today.
    I got shiny to lean back on. I hope I speak loud and clear when I say “go tell Omama and his team to fcuk themselves” He put tall Paul on his economic team and then marginalized him. The markets will return the favor.

    Just like the monkey that sat on that desk before him he too will become irrelavant.

  255. 3b says:

    #260 sastry:But the main hope is that it wouldn’t spiral out of control. Just like the rising prices were unsustainable, I think the rising taxes will also be unsustainable.

    In my opinion they already are unsustainable;the highest in the nation. There is nothing on the horizon that indicates this is going to change any time soon if at all.

  256. John says:

    D.R. Horton Q2 loss 34c a share vs loss of $4.14

  257. HEHEHE says:

    I honestly think that the game is being rigged right now so that certain selected banks can get on the right end of the short trade when the string is pulled. I don’t know how else you explain a market increasing week after week on lower and lower margin while most institutions/mutual funds are parked in cash.

  258. Zack says:

    make money,

    You are being too emotional..You should trade the markets as you see it and not let personal emotions get in the way. ie..you are demanding from the stock market how the world should be, what kind of taxes should we have, what the president should do etc etc..
    The market doesn’t give a damn on what you think or how tax system should be structured.

    If you are interested in making money, trade the markets, for all other reasons, pray to God.

  259. Outofstater says:

    The rally has to be strong enough to calm the fears of the retail investors so they’ll get sucked into the vortex. Think Wizard of Oz – they’ll be the ones crushed under the house when it falls to earth. But remember, all of my opinions are crap and my free advice is worth exactly what you pay for it.

  260. BC Bob says:

    “Bond fund manager Bill Gross warned Monday that President Obama’s economic policies pose the risk of slowing down long-term growth, which in turn will eat into the value of some stocks and bonds.”

    “Investors should recognize that this grassroots trend signals — most importantly — an increasing uncertainty of cash flows from financial assets,” he wrote.

    “Not only will redistribution and reregulation lead to slower economic growth, but the financial flows from it will be haircutted and ‘burden shared’ by stakeholders.”

    http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Pimcos-Gross-warns-Obama-populism/story.aspx?guid=%7B335F3910%2D7191%2D471A%2D858E%2D672A27093F32%7D

  261. HEHEHE says:

    I meant lower and lower volume.

  262. make money says:

    If you are interested in making money, trade the markets, for all other reasons, pray to God.

    Zach,

    When it comes to making money you can’t shine my shoes. I have a phrase I like to use that goes something like this “What do I know, I’m retired”.

    You’ll learn soon enough that if you work for a paycheck then you’re nothing but a peasant.

  263. 3b says:

    #275 hehe:and lower margin while most institutions/mutual funds are parked in cash.

    RETAIL.

  264. Zack says:

    #280,

    No offense to you personally..

    I was just saying that when you put emotions in your trading strategy, you end up not reading the markets correctly.

  265. 3b says:

    #264 John: If the recession is over (which it is not), than we are in for one long slow agonizing, brutal recovery, far worse than what we witnessed in the 1990’s.

  266. Outofstater says:

    So, the administration threatened some of the creditors who raised objections to the terms of the Chrysler bankruptcy? Sounds sort of, well, Nixonian. Can you say “plausible deniability”?

  267. Zack says:

    I have been long this market ever since Mike Morgan drew that 780 line on the sand..

  268. HEHEHE says:

    3b,

    I have a hard time believing it is retail simply because of the size of the market movements on these silly “green shoot” announcements.

  269. 3b says:

    #286 hehe: This is retail driven, and I will leave it at that.

  270. HEHEHE says:

    Nationwide Layoff Watch: 89 Down at Milbank
    Monday, May 4, 2009 4:13 PM – By Elie Mystal

    Back in January, we asked if Milbank was laying the ground for stealth layoffs. The firm changed its annual review process, and associates were concerned. At the time a firm spokesperson suggested there was nothing to worry about:

    http://abovethelaw.com/2009/05/nationwide_layoff_watch_89_dow.php

  271. HEHEHE says:

    Stealth Layoff Watch: Sullivan & Cromwell Has A Very Special Spring Bonus
    Monday, May 4, 2009 1:35 PM – By Elie Mystal

    The news has been brewing for weeks, but Above the Law is now in a position to confirm that there have been layoffs at Sullivan & Cromwell.

    Multiple independent sources report that the firm has quietly laid off 15 – 20 associates. The departments vary, but the layoffs have been focused in the New York office.

    All of the sources we spoke were told that they were being laid off for performance reasons. But Above the Law has learned that a couple of first years have been laid off as well. It’s hard to make a performance argument against an attorney that has been around for less than a year.

    The firm did not respond to our multiple requests for comment.

    Why is this information coming out now? We have some additional details after the jump.

    As we understand it, the majority of these layoffs took place near the end of February. The affected associates were told of their situation and given two months to find another job.

    If you do the math, that two month “severance” has run out. Not surprisingly, a lot of the laid off associates have not found work and are willing to talk about it.

    http://abovethelaw.com/2009/05/stealth_layoff_watch_sullivan.php

  272. Traitor nom deplume says:

    [258] 3b

    “With the public school/property taxes, you pay forever.”

    Unless you move.

  273. xmonger says:

    re 290:

    Impossible to avoid the shaft unless you flee the country or jump fence to the parasite site. The only question is how deep are you willing to take it; look up state insertion depth table -> move accordingly.

  274. chicagofinance says:

    Zack says:
    May 4, 2009 at 5:11 pm
    I have been long this market ever since Mike Morgan drew that 780 line on the sand..

    Z: I forgot about him. Clot, what is his current temp?

  275. Clotpoll says:

    plume (242)-

    It’s not a recent COO. This guy is old skool, as in back when they ruled the world. He don’t give a rat’s ass about anything.

    I love the guy.

  276. Clotpoll says:

    sastry (244)-

    Somebody who’s truly loaded doesn’t treat 25K in property taxes as no big deal.

    People who get rich get there by not doing things like coughing up 25K a year for a zip code. Rule #1 of being wealthy is that you never cough up money to the gubmint needlessly.

    Look at Peapack, Far Hills, Tewksbury, Bedminster etc. They have the lowest tax rates in their respective areas.

    Because rich people don’t overpay taxes.

  277. Essex says:

    Ah God Bless Ma Bell. And her bastard children.

  278. Clotpoll says:

    3b (259)-

    You’re such a downer. Are you really telling me that somebody wouldn’t pay 11K in taxes to own a 10 y/o McMansion in High Bridge for ONLY 379K?

    Say that over and over again. Crapshack…hillbilly town…price under 400K…11K in taxes…

    Soothing, like a mantra.

  279. Clotpoll says:

    High Bridge is only 472 stops on the Raritan Valley line before you get to Newark.

  280. Clotpoll says:

    Live further out than High Bridge, and you’re riding a donkey the rest of the way home.

  281. Clotpoll says:

    Zack (262)-

    Gee, I’ve been an SRS/SKF kind of guy…and I feel fine.

    Easy to keep averaging back in when your stake is 100% the house’s money.

    I really hope to get some SRS with a 1-handle. That would make my year.

  282. Clotpoll says:

    John (264)-

    Sorry. You don’t get to pick which markets all of a sudden become liquid and are able to clear themselves.

    Everything’s caught in the same muck and correlated to end in doom. To the rest of us, that’s a troubling sign. To you, it’s a buy sign.

  283. sas says:

    Was the public disclosure of the bank stress tests delayed so Goldman Sachs could raise capital?

    “Goldman bond sale raises questions”
    http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/04/30/55318/goldman-bond-sale-raises-questions/

    SAS

  284. Essex says:

    The golf links lie so near the mill That almost every day The laboring children can look out And see the men at play. — Sarah Norcliffe Cleghorn

  285. sas says:

    this article is a day late and dollar short:

    like i tell you blokes for months now, bank failure Fridays are not failure, but economic warfare to consolidate.

    -JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE:JPM – News) may be called on by regulators for more acquisitions, as the U.S. banking sector is likely to see further consolidation, Chief Executive Jamie Dimon said on a webcast call on Monday.

    -“There are still too many banks in the United States,” Dimon told Calyon Securities analyst Mike Mayo on the call.

    oh wait, I’m a cook.
    back to eating french fries at my favorite location: “tar beach”.

    SAS

  286. 3b says:

    #296 clot:You’re such a downer

    I try.

  287. confused in nj says:

    290.Traitor nom deplume says:
    May 4, 2009 at 5:46 pm
    [258] 3b

    “With the public school/property taxes, you pay forever.”

    Unless you move.

    The UFT will probably get Obama to impose a Cradle To Grave School Tax on you regardless of where you move.

  288. sas says:

    this article is a day late and dollar short:

    “JPMorgan CEO sees more bank consolidation ahead”
    http://tinyurl.com/cpg92f

    SAS

  289. sas says:

    just had some great Sauerbraten for dinner.

    yee
    SAS

  290. Clotpoll says:

    sas (303)-

    Lloyd Blankfein = man calling the shots for US economy

    Jamie Dimon = US economy’s designated fixer/”mechanic”/hit man

  291. Clotpoll says:

    sas (307)-

    Moravian-style? A Juanita specialty?

    I especially like that.

  292. Clotpoll says:

    Blankfein = Meyer Lansky

    Dimon = John Gotti

  293. Clotpoll says:

    Where the hell was this story today?

    http://www.goldmansachs666.com/2009/05/ny-fed-chairman-to-step-down-violated.html

    Chi, you asked where Mikey Morgan was. He’s developed a little fixation on GS lately.

  294. still_looking says:

    sas 307

    the only “Sauer” thing in front of me is my Sig.

    sl

  295. 3b says:

    #290 traitor: With the public school/property taxes, you pay forever.”

    Yeah, but it is for the children. Don’t you care about the children?

  296. still_looking says:

    clot,

    bets on when the next dump is gonna be?

    the pump is starting to grow at a fascinating rate.

    I’m thinking 9000 or 9500…

    sl

  297. 3b says:

    #310 clot

    Blankfein/Dimon Gombeen men both.

  298. 3b says:

    #315 Gombeen Transaltion Someone who profits at someone elses expense. Shady underhanded,corrupt.

  299. still_looking says:

    maybe I’m too optimistic?

    I guess after seeing family members who I’d never dream of losing their jobs getting canned….my eyes are even wider open.

    Once again feels like we on this site are the sandwich board wearing doomsayers.

    sl

  300. sas says:

    “Moravian-style? A Juanita specialty?”

    an old german women whom I call “grandmother” (no, not my real grandma) made it for me. She makes a damn good dish and asked me if I would like some while I talked to her son.

    Juanita doesn’t do German.
    SAS

  301. sas says:

    “the only “Sauer” thing in front of me is my Sig”

    yikes!
    i better be careful.

    SAS

  302. sas says:

    “I guess after seeing family members who I’d never dream of losing their jobs getting canned….my eyes are even wider open”

    i know some people whom got laid off, but currently all have found new employment. However, almost all earn less than what they use to.

    SAS

  303. sas says:

    I love omama, he is the cool & calm fearless leader.

    its great to wake up in North Korea.
    :)
    SAS

  304. House Hunter says:

    Husband was at a family gathering this weekend. Two guys out of work, one hurting and a fourth waiting for the hammer

  305. House Hunter says:

    and oh…my brother probably gets the hammer soon…another friend may cancel their vacation as the hubby may be laid off as well…seems to have escalated around me

  306. House Hunter says:

    to still looking…do you have any opinion – info on Kyphoplasty’s(L1 compression fracture)? My dad is 80 and has been having multiple falls, having this done Friday…this week is exactly one month between hosptial, and rehab…knew this day was coming, living it is another thing

  307. safeashouses says:

    Australia’s housing prices drop ar record rate.

    But it’s an island!!

    http://business.smh.com.au/business/house-prices-fall-at-fastest-rate-for-25-years-20090504-aslo.html

  308. Clotpoll says:

    sl (315)-

    Over 9,000…then, lookout below.

  309. Stu says:

    So I’m listening to Bloomberg on my drive home from work today. Some dude is talking about market cycles and how he made the call on this rally and that it would definitely end by May 21st. He really knew his global stuff and for a few moments, I thought it was BC Bob. Until, he said that market cycles were impacted mostly by solar flares. Bloomberg radio….what have you done?

  310. Clotpoll says:

    hunter (323)-

    Hang in there. I give you credit for even going to family gatherings. I just stay home and drink these days.

  311. still_looking says:

    HH 324,

    Best wishes to your dad for a speedy recovery. I have read the success rates for kyphoplasty (balloon inserted first then, the DMMA/bone cement after) are about 70-90%.

    Those are great success rates. I don’t know anyone who personally had it done –though I know a few who would benefit from it.

    While the risks of the procedure are seemingly scary, they appear to be very low (less than 2%)

    Mayo Clinic in Rochester reports here:

    http://tinyurl.com/dchvhl

    I won’t add other links as it my throw this into moderation.

    You can search www “PubMed” at its .gov site for a boatload of data.

    Best Wishes

    sl

  312. still_looking says:

    sas,

    relax it’s just a P239 40 cal. What a nice piece though…. still have to break it in but I am working way too much right now to do it.

    Question. Is the SAS a nod to British special forces? Just curious.

    sl

  313. yikes says:

    BC Bob says:
    May 4, 2009 at 7:26 am

    We will continue to lose more than 500K jobs a month, into 2010. When the carnage stops there will be no V shaped recovery, rather an elongated L. Everything shrinks; leverage, WS, shelter pricing, standard of living, malls, restaurants, retail, etc., etc..

    got 300 comments to read before bed, but tell me – is this baked into the stock market? is the market a forward indicator to the point that ‘forward’ means early 2010?

  314. still_looking says:

    Clot, 328

    You can’t believe the folks who are giddy about this latest run-up.

    Me? I’m so skeptical but I just do like the penguins of Madagascar movie at the end…

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qI6DJ0VkBMQ

    “Skipper, don’t you think we should tell them the boats run out of gas??”

    “Just smile and wave, boys, smile and wave.”

    sl

  315. sas says:

    “Question. Is the SAS a nod to British special forces? Just curious”

    yes. one of the few americans that acutally got the privilege to train with that group. at that time anyways..

    things might be a little less compartmentalized now.

    Then, afterwards bought a flat in London, only to lose it a bad real estate deal, which turned me onto RE & RE bubbles.

    SAS

  316. sas says:

    “British special forces?”

    but, in my experience, back in the day, i always thought…believe it or not..Iraq had one hell of a mean special forces team, when the USA was funding & training it.

    talking speacial ops, not to be confused with their standing army whom were just rag tags (no pun intenend).

    SAS

  317. sas says:

    now, you should have an idea why i’m a fry short of the happy meal.

    SAS

  318. yikes says:

    grim says:
    May 4, 2009 at 9:43 am

    Stu,

    Correct, the library sits on the intersection of Goldilocks Way and Soft Landing Boulevard.

    This is a good one, grim
    lotta laughs

  319. xmonger says:

    re 328: I find that it’s easier to call the next pimple location on your favorite pornstar’s ass than the market’s heading over the short term.

    That being said, Clot’s call sounds good. I don’t even think we’ll break 9k before the next ride down.

  320. yikes says:

    Comrade nom deplume (for May Day) says:
    May 4, 2009 at 1:43 pm

    [187] James

    You could retire across the river in PA and it would be a helluva lot cheaper taxwise. And you still have proximity to friends and family in NJ.

    as a bucks county resident, i completely endorse this. i actually see it increasing in the next 5-10 years as NJ taxes skyrocket

  321. NJCoast says:

    Leaving tri-

    Sorry to respond so late
    Some info on 23 Seaview in Monmouth Beach

    Taxes- $11,223.00
    Last sale- 6/2000- $617,000
    Square ft- 2880
    Original list-2/06- $2,250,000
    Current list- $1,199,99
    Located in 100 year flood zone
    Past 5 years updates – plumbing, electric,HVAC, copper gutters, insulation, foundation.

    I live 15 minutes south of Monmouth Beach (Allenhurst) and my husband commuted to downtown for 20 years and loved the ferry. They are very irregular outside of commuter hours and when the river freezes on really cold winter days.

    Monmouth Beach is a cool shore town but in the ’93 nor’easter the seawall was breached and there was severe flooding.

  322. NJCoast says:

    Still Looking

    My 90 year old FIL broke his hip a few days ago. Had some pins put in at Morristown Memorial Hospital. Now has to go to rehab. We’re thinking of JFK Johnson Rehab in Edison. Do you have any info/opinion about the place?

  323. chicagofinance says:

    Stu says:
    May 4, 2009 at 9:46 pm
    So I’m listening to Bloomberg on my drive home from work today. Some dude is talking about market cycles and how he made the call on this rally and that it would definitely end by May 21st.
    Bloomberg radio….what have you done?

    Stu: Was it Lakshmin Acutan (sp?)? That guy actually knows his sh!t. I should really pay more attention to him.

  324. chicagofinance says:

    Lakshman Achuthan
    and this is his shop…
    http://www.businesscycle.com/

  325. cobbler says:

    It was not Achuthan:
    todays afternoon schedule

    5/4/2009 03:00 PM ET Charles Nenner Research Center Nenner, Charles
    Executive Director
    5/4/2009 03:00 PM ET Trimtabs.com Investment Rsch Biderman, Charles
    Chief Executive Officer
    5/4/2009 03:30 PM ET Wjb Capital Group Inc Us Fullman, Scott
    Director of Derivatives Investment
    5/4/2009 04:30 PM ET Ubs Securities Llc Bellini, Heather
    Analyst
    5/4/2009 06:00 PM ET Encima Global Malpass, David
    President

  326. still_looking says:

    NJC:

    I am not too familiar with rehab places but I know at least 2 people who were there — one a long time ago (so, it may not apply today) and one about 2 yrs ago. I will call the latter one and try to write back later — I am off to work…

    you know… to pay more taxes. :P

    sl

  327. leavingtribeca says:

    NJCoast – thank you for the color. It’s good to know that someone who put in 20 years enjoyed the ferry. That says something. I think it could be a good way to decompress.

Comments are closed.