New Jersey Real Estate Report

The New Jersey Home Price Index Tracker has been updated to include:
* April S&P Case Shiller (Aggregate, Tiered, Condo)

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S&P Case Shiller NY Metro Commutable Area Home Price Index

Low Tier (Under $283721) - Peaked in October 2006 and is down 24.5% from peak

Mid Tier ($283721 - $416284) - Peaked in September 2006 and is down 22.42% from peak

High Tier (Over $416284) - Peaked in June 2006 and is down 17.39% from peak

Aggregate (Overall Market) - Peaked in June 2006 and is down 21.08% from peak

Condo-Only Index - Peaked in February 2006 and is down 12.85% from peak

NY Metro Area Aggregate Year over Year Changes

Apr 08 -7.98%
May 08 -7.74%
Jun 08 -7.04%
Jul 08 -7.04%
Aug 08 -6.61%
Sep 08 -7.13%
Oct 08 -7.71%
Nov 08 -8.72%
Dec 08 -9.17%
Jan 09 -9.74%
Feb 09-10.33%
Mar 09 -11.85%
Apr 09 -12.53%

The NY Metro Area saw price declines continue to accelerate to the fastest pace yet this cycle.

Bonus Graphs from Veto and Kettle:

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More can be found here: http://tinyurl.com/nsgq2f

Due out at 9am this morning, post will be updated as news/info becomes available.

From Bloomberg:

Home-Price Declines in 20 U.S. Cities Eased in April

Home prices in 20 major U.S. metropolitan areas fell in April at a slower pace than forecast, a sign the plunge in real-estate values is abating.

The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index decreased 18.1 percent from a year earlier following an 18.7 percent drop in March. The measure declined 19 percent in January, the most since the data began in 2001.

Price declines are likely to keep moderating as demand steadies and distressed properties account for a smaller share of transactions. Still, the highest jobless rate in 25 years is contributing to record foreclosures, which are likely to keep depressing values for months to come even as home sales steady.

“It is looking a little bit better,” said Mark Vitner, a senior economist at Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte, North Carolina. “The largest declines are probably past. When prices stop falling the erosion in household wealth will come to an end.”

Economists forecast the index would drop 18.6 percent, according to the estimates of 33 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Estimates ranged from drops of 17.7 percent to 19.4 percent.

From MarketWatch:

U.S. home prices down 18.1% in past year

U.S. home prices were down 18.1% in the year ended April, according to the national Case-Shiller home price index released Tuesday. On a month-to-month basis, prices in 20 selected cities fell 0.6% in April, with declines in 11 cities. Still, the overall pace of decline slowed in April, said David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee for Standard & Poor’s, which compiles the Case-Shiller index. “Every metro area, except for Charlotte, recorded an improvement in monthly returns over March,” Blitzer said. “While one month’s data cannot determine if a turnaround has begun, it seems that some stabilization may be appearing in some of the regions.”

From the WSJ:

Home Prices Drop at Slower Pace

U.S. home prices continued their multiyear tumble in April, according to the S&P Case-Shiller home-price indexes, although the indexes showed their third-straight month of slightly smaller declines.

Seventeen of 20 major metropolitan areas posted price declines of more than 10% from a year earlier, with the Sun Belt continuing to be hit hardest. Nationally, home prices are at levels similar to the middle of 2003.

From the AP:

Home prices post 18.1 percent annual drop in April

A key housing index shows a clear trend that home price declines are moderating.

The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller index released Tuesday showed home prices in 20 major cities tumbled by 18.1 percent from April 2008. The 10-city index fell 18 percent from the year before.

April, however, marked the third straight month both indexes didn’t set record price declines. And yearly losses in 13 metros improved compared to March.

Still, the 20-city index is off almost 33 percent from its peak in the second quarter of 2006, and the 10-city has dropped by almost 34 percent, which means home values are now around 2003-levels.

From CNBC:

Five Reasons Housing Market Still Hasn’t Recovered Yet

What happened to the housing recovery?

Despite hopes that the market would begin showing signs of life this spring, the latest housing data suggests otherwise. Instead, the sector remains stubbornly moribund—trapped in a spiral of declining prices, increasing mortgage rates, unemployment and several unforeseen factors.

And with many experts believing that a real estate rebound is critical for the overall economy to recover, patience with housing is beginning to wear thin.

“We’re dealing with a problem that probably took us eight years to get into and expecting to get out of it in eight minutes, and it’s just not going to happen,” says Rick Sharga, analyst for RealtyTrac, which follows real estate trends. “The frustration might be more self-induced or self-inflicted than necessarily something the real world would create.”

Experts cite various reasons for the continuing problems with housing and say it’s unrealistic to expect a full recovery anytime soon.

Economists have all been pretty consistent in that they expect the housing market to bottom out at the end of this year or the beginning of next year,” Sharga adds. “It’s not going to be a rapid recovery.”

Experts break housing’s problems into five key areas.

1) Unemployment
…
2) Credit Availability
…
3) Price Pressures
…
4) Appraisals
…
5) Short Sales

I don’t care if you have plans, cancel them.

What: GTG/Meet-up/Whatever
When: Friday June 26th, 7:30ish (Tonight!)
Where: Fitzgerald’s 1928 http://www.fitzgeralds1928.com
13 Herman Street (off Bloomfield Ave)
Glen Ridge, NJ 07028
Google Maps Link

For drivers, this is right off exit 148 on the Parkway.
For those looking for mass transit, Fitzgeralds is 2 blocks away from the Glen Ridge Station on the Montclair Boonton Line.

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From the Press of Atlantic City:

Age-restricted communities popular, but still a bust in N.J.

Linda Telli needed some convincing when her husband, Ron, first suggested uprooting their lives in Bergen County to retire at the Four Seasons at Historic Smithville, an age-restricted community in Galloway Township.

While Ron liked the idea of being around people their age, Linda preferred being closer to New York City and their family. A lower cost of living in Atlantic County, however, became a major selling point. The couple bought property at the Four Seasons nearly four years ago.

“Our taxes are down about $1,500 to $2,000,” said Ron, 67.

As for Linda, “Living here is like camp for adults,” said the 60-year-old.

The popularity of adult retirement communities with the baby boomer set has grown through much of the decade, although modestly.
…
But housing market expert Jeffrey Otteau says boomers may not be so quick to flood those communities now - at least not in New Jersey.

For one, retirees here are choosing to move to lower-cost states, leaving a glut of age-restricted housing in the Garden State equivalent to a 16-year supply, said Otteau, president of Otteau Valuation Group, a real estate research and appraisal firm in East Brunswick.

Legislation now is moving through Trenton that would allow developers to petition municipalities to remove age restrictions on already approved projects, instead favoring more affordable housing.

Otteau added that because of the economic meltdown, seniors may decide to save money by simply “aging in place.” So instead of retiring to an age-restricted community, they’ll retire in their current home.

The building of age-restricted housing, however, still is appealing to many towns: Seniors contribute to the local tax base without increasing school enrollment.

From CNBC:

Rebound In Housing Hampered By Slowdown in ‘Short Sales’

When Vasco and Mrjama Lukic’s American housing dream turned into a nightmare, they managed to escape through a long and complicated process known as a “short sale.”

The Yugoslavian-born couple and their sons built a home in West Orange, N.J., where they hoped to settle and enjoy the fruits of many hard hours of labor.

But when their son Goren was hurt in an automobile crash two years ago, he could no longer help his parents with the mortgage payments on the house. The couple quickly got behind on their mortgage—more than a year at one point.

With no other options, they turned to a short sale—in which the lender agrees to take less than the value of the mortgage to avoid the more onerous foreclosure process. For the Lukics, it was a long and emotional road that finally ended on Thursday, when they sold their home for less than half the original asking price.

“I couldn’t work anymore. They had to do everything on their own and they were struggling,” Goren Lukic said as he drove his parents to the closing on their home. “We called up the bank and said, ‘We can’t afford the house anymore, can you guys take it?’ They were like, ‘Why not?’”

Short sales, which have taken off in the past year, have become a way out for some Americans in trouble with their mortgage. But just as the concept is gaining favor, it is already running into problems—another reason why the housing recovery is taking longer than many had hoped.

Real estate industry experts say banks are becoming more reluctant to agree to short sales, in part because the change in mark-to-market accounting rules gives them less incentive to take less than the mortgage is worth. As a result, they say, banks are holding out for what Realtors say are unrealistic offers.

“Every Realtor I talk to tells the same sort of horror story making a buy offer,” says Rick Shargo, vice president of marketing at RealtyTrac, which follows housing trends. “Interminable delays of six weeks to three months are not uncommon, or banks rejecting a 20 percent discount at short-sale only to ultimately take the property back and market it at 40 or 50 percent lower.”

For their part, bankers say prospective buyers are trying to take advantage of the situation by offering prices that are too far below market value.
…
Indeed, not all of the accounts regarding short sales are horror stories.

Some, like the Lukics, were just happy to be able to be able to dump the property and get on with their lives. After putting the house on the market initially at a price that would help them recoup their investment, the family finally realized they needed to change their thinking.

“They weren’t able to sell it because they wanted too much money for it,” said Joel Zeichner, an agent with Jordan Baris Realtors in West Orange, which represented the family. “We convinced them they needed to come up with a more aggressive price.”

Don’t miss the meet-up tomorrow!

When: Friday June 26th, 7:30ish
Where: Fitzgerald’s 1928 http://www.fitzgeralds1928.com
13 Herman Street (off Bloomfield Ave)
Glen Ridge, NJ 07028
Google Maps Link

For drivers, this is right off exit 148 on the Parkway.
For those looking for mass transit, Fitzgeralds is 2 blocks away from the Glen Ridge Station on the Montclair Boonton Line.

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From the Huffington Post:

Roiling On The Rivers Of Real Estate

To every analyst, forecaster, and economist predicting they see the bottom of the real estate market, I respond as Vinnie Barbarino might: “Where? Where?” I know the bottom is there–we all do– but much like in a polluted riverbed, it is hard to spot and treacherous to reach.

More than three years ago, I saw the banks of the NY metro housing market erode from my vantage point as an attorney wading in its waters. I saw serial refinancers, living on their equity, and watched repayment-challenged buyers receive mortgages as easily as frogs catch flies. Appraisers inflated values in far from desirable areas, encouraging investors to leave multiple homes vacant while they slapped on a coat of paint and re-faced the kitchen cabinets before cashing out from the next no money down speculators.

Then the more-more-more river turned stagnant; occasionally, like a skipping stone, a transaction did skitter along, only to sink with an inglorious “thud.” In early spring, multiple pebbles started being flung furiously at the water, causing expert analysts to calibrate and celebrate the quantity of rocks, while ignoring the clunks that frequently still follow. The bottom must be close, they espouse: look at the volume of activity in the real estate market!

I’m still deep in the real estate waters, loudly hearing the sounds of sinking stones while those in the lifeguard towers think they hear surging surf. As the summer of 2009 begins, the latest wave of “can you help me?” calls I answer are no longer primarily from “sub-prime” borrowers. I’ve either helped them, or been unable to, and they’ve moved on. Nowadays the borrowers in a boatload of trouble and months behind in their mortgages formerly had better-than-decent credit, good jobs, and 20% or more money to put down (or a great deal of equity in their homes).

Some buyers, sensing blood in the waters, want houses upgraded and improved before they close. Sellers without the funds to accommodate these demands are deemed “unrealistic” as the buyers move on. Yesterday’s market was significantly overpriced, but today’s has very little negotiation, with a significant number of buyers regressing to their toddler years to get what they want. There’s something about a population of homeowners who came into title via temper tantrums that cannot bode well for smooth sailing back to a stable real estate market.

I also come across sellers who remind me of cartoon character grandfathers, preferring to live in “the good old days” when their homes were worth 15-20-25% more. Those days are gone, grandpa–it’s time to sell the ranch for whatever you can realistically get if you want to move on.
…
There’s definitely a bottom to the real estate market. But to finish with my water metaphors, the bottom is not clearly visible through yesterday’s floating wreckage and today’s murky transactions. We need to save the drowners, repel the sharks, and raise the level of the bottom feeders. Only then will we be able to plot a safe course home.

From the AP/APP:

Northeast home sales, prices drop in May

Home sales in the Northeast declined more than 13 percent in May from year-ago levels, the worst showing in the country, as the specter of job losses loomed over the region.

The median sales price in the Northeast dropped almost 13 percent to $243,600, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday.

Nationally, sales of existing homes tumbled 6.6 percent in May from the previous year, without adjusting for seasonal factors. The U.S. median sales price slid almost 17 percent to $173,000.

But James Diffley, group managing director of IHS Global Insight’s regional services group, focused more on the 7.6 month-to-month sales gain in the Northeast.

“The numbers are giving some comfort that we’re at the bottom,” Diffley said. “We have a more optimistic view than just a few months ago.”

In fact, all nine major Northeast cities tracked in the Associated Press-Re/Max Monthly Housing Report showed monthly gains in home sales. But compared to last May, sales were down across the board with with seven metro areas recording double-digit declines.
…
Jitters are still running high in the suburbs of New York, where sales fell by 30 percent, the worst decline in the region. Excluding New York City, the median price in the area fell almost 8 percent to $388,000 as job losses on Wall Street rippled through the local economy.

Hat tip to Debbie from over at Baristanet for bringing this to my attention!

From Realogy:

NRT Combines its two New Jersey Real Estate Brokerage Companies into Single Organization

NRT LLC, the nation’s largest residential real estate brokerage company, today announced the merger of the operations of its two local operating companies based in New Jersey – Burgdorff Realtors ERA and Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in New Jersey & Rockland County, N.Y. The newly combined company will operate under the Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage banner, further solidifying its market presence with a total of 63 offices and over 3,700 sales associates in the region.

“There was a time when operating both companies independent of each other in the same market made good business sense, but as the marketplace continues to evolve, this unification allows sales associates from both companies to better leverage their regional and national strength for the benefit of our customers,” said Bruce Zipf, president and CEO of NRT LLC, parent company of both Burgdorff ERA and Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage. “We are committed to making this a smooth transition for our sales associates and our clients.”

NRT is assisting more than 600 current Burgdorff sales associates make the transition to Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in the coming days. As a result of the merger, seven of the 13 Burgdorff offices will be rebranded and operate as Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage, and six Burgdorff offices will be consolidated into existing Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage locations in the same communities. One Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage office will be closed and merged into an existing company location in the same community.

Mark your calendars, the long awaited GTG

When: Friday June 26th, 7:30ish

Location: Fitzgerald’s 1928 http://www.fitzgeralds1928.com
13 Herman Street (off Bloomfield Ave)
Glen Ridge, NJ 07028
Google Maps Link

For drivers, this is right off exit 148 on the Parkway.
For those looking for mass transit, Fitzgeralds is 2 blocks away from the Glen Ridge Station on the Montclair Boonton Line.

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From the Record:

Report: Housing market suffered “massive shock”

The housing market has suffered a “massive shock” and faces a difficult recovery in the face of job losses, foreclosures and tight credit, according to a report released today by Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies.

“It’s difficult to overstate the challenges in the housing market today,” said Nicholas Retsinas, director of the center, who presented the annual State of the Nation’s Housing report in New York City. “While there are some positive signs in the marketplace, the macroeconomic forces are still overwhelmingly negative.”

The good news is that the bursting of the housing bubble has made real estate more affordable. And, looking over the next 10 years, the huge “echo boomer” generation will soon start establishing their own households in large numbers, increasing demand for homes.

In North Jersey and the rest of the New York metropolitan area, homes have held their value better than in many regions of the nation as the housing bubble burst over the past several years. But price declines in the New York area have begun to accelerate, partly as a result of job cuts in financial services, a major economic engine for the region.

Eric Belsky, executive director of the housing center, said the home price declines are likely to continue in the area for some time — though they will not drop as much as in areas such as Florida, Nevada, Arizona and California, where developers overbuilt during the housing boom. Because this area is already largely developed, and state and local governments tightly regulate construction, builders did not overbuild in North Jersey.

From the Record:

Buying smart is all in the timing

After two years of home shopping — and one canceled deal — MaryAnn and Bryan Rust bought their first house, a three-bedroom Maywood ranch, this month. They were motivated by lower home values, inexpensive mortgage money and an $8,000 federal tax credit for first-time buyers.

“Once we had the $8,000 in tax credits, that was the deal sealer,” said Bryan Rust, a 31-year-old electrician. While it’s not a huge amount of money, the tax credit will give them a little cushion against the cost of unexpected repairs, he said.

“Knowing we have at least an $8,000 credit is putting us ahead of the game,” Rust said.

The tax credit, which went into effect this year in an effort to jump-start a glum housing market, has apparently brought some first-timers into the housing market.

Certainly, home sales activity is still down from a year ago. A rising unemployment rate — now above 9 percent nationwide — means that many people are out of work and in no position to take on a mortgage or are worried about losing their jobs.

Moreover, many economists and housing analysts expect home prices to drop further, and many potential buyers are waiting for bigger bargains.

Still, first-timers comprise close to half of all buyers, up from the typical 40 percent, according to the National Association of Realtors. North Jersey Realtors agree that the starter-home market is much more active than the luxury market.
…
The Rusts first ventured into the real estate market in 2007 as the volume of home sales was starting to fall after the housing boom. Prices were still significantly higher than they are now. The Rusts signed a contract to buy a Ringwood house for almost $400,000, but backed out when a home inspection turned up serious roof problems.

They watched as that house later sold for $50,000 less.

“I felt like things were kind of making a turn south,” Rust said. “My wife and I decided to wait and see what the market does. Things started to come down. Houses sat on the market for a long time. A lot of the houses we saw two years ago are still on the market to this day.”

The couple used that time to pay down debt and save a bigger down payment. Then, as prices and mortgage rates dropped over the past eight months — and the federal tax credit kicked in — the Rusts felt it might be time to jump back in.
…
Watching home prices drop over the past two years, the Rusts sometimes wonder if they will fall further and lead them to regret buying now.

“That’s a risk we’re going to have to take,” Bryan Rust said. “When are you ever going to have the perfect time? We felt this was the best time to make the move.”

Ok folks, it’s that time again!

Steady stream of emails lately, asking about the next get together.

Save the date, pencil it in, roll out of bed, whatever.

When: Friday June 26th, 8ish.
Location: Still TBD

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This is the time and place to post observations about your local areas, comments on news stories or the New Jersey housing market, open house reports, etc. If you have any questions you wanted to ask earlier in the week but never posted them up, let’s have them. Also a good place to post suggestions, requests for information, criticism, and praise.

For readers that have never commented, there is a link at the top of each message that is typically labelled “[#] Comments“. Go ahead and give that a click, you might be missing out on a world of information you didn’t know about. While you are there, introduce yourselves to everyone.

For new readers that have only read the messages displayed on the main page, take a look through the archives, a substantial amount of information has been put online in the past year. The archives can be accessed by using the links found in the menus on the right hand side of the page.

From Reuters:

Spring U.S. housing market fell short-Coldwell CEO

This year’s peak home-buying season was lackluster, as buyers seeking to trade up to larger houses were absent, said the head of one of the country’s largest real estate firms.

Jim Gillespie, president and chief executive of Coldwell Banker Real Estate LLC, in an interview with Reuters, said sales were only modest during the spring, with demand overwhelmingly dominated by first-time home buyers and investors.

“The more important ‘move-up’ buyers were absent and that is not encouraging,” said Gillespie, who is based in Parsippany, New Jersey.

Move-up buyers are those seeking to trade in their current home for a larger one, and Gillespie said that group is important for sustaining a healthy real estate market. Because of the sharp decline in housing prices and the collapse in consumer demand, homeowners are having difficulty selling their current homes to move up to pricier properties.

“They are key to a U.S. housing market recovery,” he said.
…
Gillespie said market realities have come to bear as well. As government bond yields rose, mortgage rates have naturally followed. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.38 percent for the week ending June 18, according to a survey released on Thursday by home funding company Freddie Mac.

That was down from the previous week’s 5.59 percent, which was the highest level since November, but up sharply from the record low of 4.78 percent set the week ending April 2.

“Many people got spoiled by mortgage rates at 5 percent and below,” he said.

“When the mortgage rate rose above 5 percent, it spooked many buyers who were already hesitant,” he said.

(Yes, this is a repost. The media finally caught on to what DB was saying.)

From Time:

New York Home Prices Forecast to Drop 40%

What’s it feel like to survive one hurricane only to be told that another is on the way? New York City–area homeowners are in just that spot. After the region suffered the brunt of financial-industry cutbacks, the next big wave of woe could be a nor’easter of collapsing home prices. That’s the forecast of an extensive new report on residential real estate by Deutsche Bank, which calls for home prices in metropolitan New York City (which includes Westchester, northern New Jersey and other nearby areas) to fall 40.6% from the prices that prevailed in March.

Ironically, that dire forecast is wrapped in an improving forecast for nationwide home prices. Back in March, Deutsche Bank analysts had expected national home prices to decline 16.5%; now they foresee just a 14% decline. That mildly upbeat news does not hold true for the New York City area, however, which is expected to see a 40.6% drop. While that is also a slight improvement from the March forecast, it is dire
…
New York City’s big problem is not so much the financial-industry meltdown as it is an intense lack of affordability. As the report notes, metropolitan-area New York home prices peaked in the second quarter of 2007 at $552,000. By the first quarter of 2009, the median price had dropped 19%, to $446,000, but the market swoon was less than half the drop recorded in many other areas of the country. Today among the 10 biggest metropolitan areas, New York ranks as the least affordable.

From the Wall Street Journal:

Deutsche Bank Predicts 40% Drop in New York Home Prices

How much further could home prices tumble in the New York City metro area? Deutsche Bank predicts a decline of 40.6% from the first quarter of 2009.

That’s a slight improvement over the 47.4% decline that the bank’s analysts had forecast in March, and it reflects in part the fact that prices have dropped since then. Still, prices would have to drop another 32% from the first quarter of 2009 to return the New York market to levels of affordability not seen since 1998.
…
Median prices in the first quarter of 2009 dropped to $446,000 in New York, down 19% from the peak of $552,000 set in the second quarter of 2007. Deutsche Bank forecasts a total peak-to-trough decline of 52.1%.

From the NJ Department of Labor and Workforce Development:

New Jersey Employment Declined in May by 6,200 Jobs; Unemployment Rate at 8.8 Percent Remained Below the National Level

Job losses slowed in May as New Jersey employers reduced employment by 6,200 over the month, the smallest monthly drop since September 2008. The state’s unemployment rate moved to 8.8 percent while remaining lower than the national rate of 9.4 percent.

According to preliminary estimates from the New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development’s monthly survey of employers, nonfarm wage and salary employment in the Garden State decreased by 6,200 jobs in May, to a total of 3,935,100. The loss was less than half the average monthly drop over the most recent six-month period (-16,000) and mirrors the employment pattern nationally. The previously released April estimate was revised lower by -4,300 for a revised March-to- April loss of 18,700.

“In May, New Jersey’s employment losses somewhat moderated from those of previous months,” said New Jersey Labor Commissioner David J. Socolow. “Through Governor Corzine’s leadership New Jersey is investing state and federal resources in needed infrastructure upgrades. These important projects will help generate jobs for our citizens and help the economy rebound from the global economic recession.”

Over the month, six of ten private industry sectors realized losses while four recorded gains. Public sector employment was higher by 400. The largest losses occurred in trade, transportation and utilities (-5,800), construction (-4,900) and information (-1,100). Increasing jobs in heavy and civil engineering construction, mainly due to infrastructure projects getting underway, were not enough to offset contractions in commercial and residential construction. In trade, transportation and utilities the majority of the loss was in retail trade.

Job gains were concentrated in leisure and hospitality (+5,200) and other services (+1,300). Hiring was evident in both the accommodation and food services, and arts, recreation, and amusements components of leisure and hospitality as businesses ramp up for the summer season. The gain in other services was due to higher payrolls at businesses such as automotive repair services, personal care services and business/professional organizations.

From Bloomberg:

U.S. Home Prices to Fall 14% More, Deutsche Says

U.S. home prices may fall another 14 percent, led by the New York and Orange County, California, metropolitan areas, before reaching a bottom as an increase in unemployment offsets lower prices, Deutsche Bank AG said.

“Affordability is no longer the driving issue in the housing market, and we believe prices still have a ways to fall in many areas before home prices reach their trough,” Deutsche Bank analysts led by Karen Weaver, wrote in a report yesterday. “The bottom is getting closer, but we are not there yet.”

Home prices are forecast to fall 41.7 percent from their peak, Weaver said. That’s higher than a forecast she released in March and reflects “the actual declines to date and the expected future impact on home prices from rising foreclosure inventory and unemployment.”

In March, Deutsche Bank had forecast a 16.5 percent decline in “current-to-trough” prices. While today’s projection is less than that, many metropolitan areas will still see steep declines, the report said.

In the New York metropolitan area they may drop 40.6 percent from the first quarter to the bottom, the report said, less than Deutsche Bank’s March estimate of 47.4 percent.

Financial firms have cut more than 183,000 jobs in the Americas in the global credit crisis, driving down prices and rents in the New York area. In New York City, Manhattan co-op prices slid the most since 1995 in the first quarter, according to data from Miller Samuel Inc. and broker Prudential Douglas Elliman Real Estate.