Mon 1 Jun 2009
Councilman proposes big fines for unmaintained foreclosures
Categories: Foreclosures , New Jersey Real Estate , PoliticsFrom the Home News Tribune:
In Middlesex Borough, $500 daily fine possible if foreclosed properties aren’t maintained
A proposed ordinance could ensure foreclosed properties are kept up in the absence of a live-in owner at the threat of a $500 daily fine for noncompliance.
Councilman Michael Class said he began working on the ordinance after residents came to him complaining that foreclosed properties in their neighborhood were not being maintained.
“We’ve had a couple instances in town where the bank forecloses and . . . they don’t take care of the property. The grasses start growing long, the papers start piling up outside the house. Sometimes when people move out they leave behind a lot of garbage, and it never gets cleaned up,” he said. “There’s nothing currently on the books that protects neighbors when this kind of thing happens.”
In order to keep the properties maintained until a new buyer is found, the ordinance would require the new owner after foreclosure — most likely the bank or mortgage company — to register the property with the borough at a proposed registration fee of $50, Class said.
…
If the complaint did reach the court level, Johnson said the judge could either fine the offending party or give them another opportunity to clean it up.If, at that time, the property wasn’t clean, fines would be imposed.
“It’s up to the judge to say what kind of fine he’s going to impose, but he has the discretion of going up to 500 bucks,” he said. “The fine can be a continuing fine for each day, so . . . they’re not going to let that kind of a thing happen because it’s much too expensive. It’s much cheaper for them to hire someone to clean up the place than to (pay the fines).”
Yesterday in Brigadoon I saw a few lawns that were so overgrown made me wonder if they were foreclosures.
From the Star Ledger:
Contractors adjust to slowing demand
Four days. That’s all the time it took last month for Alonzo Cartlidge to find a contractor, get an estimate and have his kitchen remodeled.
“I awarded the contract on a Tuesday and the kitchen was done Friday night,” said Cartlidge, who needed a new ceiling, cabinets and updated lighting for his Maplewood house. “Usually, you have to wait a couple of weeks before someone can come in and start your job.”
Redoing his kitchen was far easier than gutting his Tudor home’s second floor bathroom three years ago. After hiring a contractor and buying Egyptian marble, the material sat in his garage for about three months. Calls went unanswered and his frustration mounted.
Eventually, Cartlidge gave up and hired a new company to finish the job.
Cartlidge is among those homeowners finding a small benefit from the recession: improved service from contractors and more flexible bargaining power.
When the economy was booming, getting a contractor to agree to a small job — or, in some cases, even offer a bid — could be the toughest part of the project. There was just too much work and too few days in the week.
But as construction has slowed, builders and tradesmen are now hustling for business.
“Everyone’s been pretty good,” said John Dimuzio of Whippany, who is in the middle of a home renovation. “I’m calling several painters and everyone is pretty much getting back to me.”
From the WSJ:
New Era in Autos as GM Set for Bankruptcy
General Motors Corp. will file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy early Monday, marking the humbling of an American icon that once dominated the global car industry and setting up a high-stakes gamble for U.S. taxpayers.
The question now facing 56,000 auto workers, 3,600 GM dealers and the Obama administration: Will it work?
The government, which will own a majority of the company, is wagering upwards of $30 billion that it can return GM to profitability, reversing a decades-long decline by shearing away liabilities and creating a freshly competitive car maker by summer’s end.
From the Philly Inquirer:
Developer leaving a legacy of failures
On its stylish Web site, Creating Real Estate Innovations (CREI) promises “unique, deeply satisfying living experiences” in Philadelphia. “Simply put,” the home page proclaims, “CREI does not exist to create more of the same.”
Yet after five years that spanned both the heady days of the real estate boom and the hellish days of the bust, CREI’s creative output consists of little more than abandoned projects and unfinished condominium buildings.
Instead, the legacy of its owners, Gagandeep Lakhmna, Harbir Singh, and Amardeep “Billy” Grewal, lives on in delinquent construction loans, foreclosures and sheriff’s sales, hundreds of thousands of dollars in unpaid bills, and dozens of pending lawsuits, judgments, and Internal Revenue Service and mechanics’ liens.
A new trend? Press release out this morning from Lennar.
Lennar Goes Smaller And Smarter With New Home Models
Times are changing and with the current market conditions prospective homebuyers are looking for smaller and smarter homes versus the large sprawling homes purchased in the past. Lennar, one of the nation’s leading homebuilders, is responding to meet this new shift in market demand and plans to unveil five new space-efficient designed floor plans in the next phase of its StoneWater master-planned community in Cary, North Carolina.
“We are noticing the trend of going back to basics and prospective homebuyers are looking to purchase a home that is more in their comfort zone and more practical,” said Rich Sherman, President of Lennar’s Raleigh division. “That being said, prospective buyers are not looking for unattractive and simple, they still want well designed and fully functional homes.”
Lennar’s new smaller home designs will be featured in the Bali neighborhood, one of the five Communities located within the 250-acre StoneWater master-planned community in Cary. Bali will feature single-family homes ranging in size from 1,475 to 2,113 square feet. The smallest floor plan design offers three bedrooms, two and half bathrooms and prices will start at $189,990. Some of the highlighted features will be 9-foot ceilings on the first floor, hardwood floors in the foyer and luxurious master bathrooms with separate tub and shower areas.
To capitalize on energy efficiency and to maximize space, the Bali home designs utilize fewer walls to offer a more open feel, there is less space in hallways and more storage areas have been provided. Kitchens have been updated to have more room for entertaining since more people are choosing to stay at home rather than go out in the current economic climate.
#5
What a novel idea. Building practical, energy efficient housing. Too bad in NJ we are stuck with buying a 40 + year old rundown cape or ranch, a townhouse from the 80’s, or a mcmansion full of bling bling.
From the Record:
Tracking EnCap’s cash
Federal investigators sifting through the history of the failed EnCap Golf project are asking questions about money the venture took in from haulers who dumped mountains of construction debris and other material at the Meadowlands site.
Two sources familiar with the ongoing probe said FBI agents had lengthy interviews in recent weeks with current and former state officials who oversaw aspects of the $1 billion landfill-to-links project once slated for Rutherford and Lyndhurst.
“The EnCap fill program was a gold mine,” said one of the sources. “A question being asked right now is: ‘What happened to all the money that was taken in?’ ”
…
In the wake of the collapse of the project, bondholders and the public have been left holding the bag: More than $50 million in taxpayer money contributed by the Department of Environmental Protection is lost. A syndicate headed by Wachovia Bank is out more than $100 million.
Maintaining foreclosed properties for
banks = Green shoot business opportunity. All is well.
Green shoot business opportunity.
Only for those connected, this is NJ after all.
1 - re: Westfield. Maybe they should give some of those cops that hang out guarding the Scotch Plains border a couple of lawn mowers. They can do something productive for a change.
Believe me Grim we are all connected,
because we are all about $30,000 deeper
in debt courtesy of the freebie menu
served up by our Prez.
Perhaps shackled is a better term than
connected.
veto (from 97 yesterday)-
I think your adjustments are off on a couple of items:
1- I’d put the kitchen adjustment at more like 15K.
3- Difference between brick and vinyl siding is probably nothing to an appraiser.
5- No way is there a 30K difference on lot sizes. More like $2,000 to $3,000.
“…1- Comp house had fully renovated kitchen with granite and decent appliances, whereas ‘for sale house’ has original kitchen that is smaller and not as open. @30k value towards comp home
2- Comp house has 1.5 more baths than the ‘for sale house’ and all 2.5 baths are redone, whereas the ‘for sale house’ has one original full bath. $20K value
3- Comp House is brick, whereas the ‘for sale house’ is vynal siding. $10k value
4- Comp house was built in 1970, whereas the ‘for sale house’ was built in 1940. $10k value although arguable as some might want an older home.
5- Comp house has .75 Acres, whereas ‘for sale house’ has .30 Acres. $30k value.
6- Comp house has dining room, whereas ‘for sale house’ only has eat in kitchen. $15k value.
7- Location and condition are the same.”
serenity (12)-
We’re all holding hands- Thelma and Louise-style- as the car careens toward the precipice.
Rally on my friends! GM declares bankruptcy and the market pops! Woohoo!
40,000 Jobs Lost as GM Becomes Biggest Ever U.S. Company Failure
http://seekingalpha.com/article/140417-40-000-jobs-lost-as-gm-becomes-biggest-ever-u-s-company-failure
Those are just lay-offs. Tack on the forced retirements and buyouts that will be piling into the “underemployed/part time employed” ranks due to their reduced pensions etc. The suppliers are next. My brother in Detroit said he’ll be lucky to make through the summer with his job as a quality control engineer.
Rally On indeed!! Green Shoots!
Thanks all for the hotel info last night.
Gator:
That bidding link was great! TY
The housing market has dropped so much it now “only” costs 3,000 to 3,500 a month to own one of the lower priced houses in Westfield with a 5 to 10% down payment.
Imagine my chagrin when i realized I forgot to bring my checkbook.
The 40,000 job losses are just the opening shot of the consequences of the GM insolvency. There will be secondary rounds as suppliers and subcontractors fail. Nothing can make up for the consequences of the massive collapse in GM auto sales this year.
yawn..
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/Little-Falls-Twp_NJ_07424_1106553356
Thank goodness we are insulated here in prestigous North Jersey. Pay close attention to the beautiful view of the high voltage tower in photo #8. It’s great for outdoor entertaining as it makes a fabulous topic for discussion.
gary (19)-
No need to clutter your backyard with expensive climbing/gym sets, either.
Children develop agility and coordination so much faster when they understand that one false move can light you up like a 100-watt bulb.
#19 gary,
don’t consider that a high voltage tower, view it as a giant gazebo, that is merely 1 unit in a chain of hundreds across north jersey. It provides shade, a perch for birds, all kinds of uses. /off sarcasm
I was in a 3 bedroom colonial in Westfield yesterday. The basement was so short my head rubbed against the ceiling. The attic was the third bedroom. There was only an area about as wide as a hallway I could walk upright in, the rest of the space you had to crouch or crawl.
That’s why that charmer is priced to move, it has all the amenities one could wish for! At least that’s what Suzanne told me.
#23
It could be all yours for 449k and 6k a year in taxes.
I think this one in Westfield will attract multiple offers.
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/Westfield-Twp_NJ_07090_1109085851
Had a lot of foot traffic and seemed to have good bones. It’s on a busy street, but it was so much bigger than the capes on side streets we also looked at.
Deal of a life time, SRS at $18, on it’s way to $16.
Frank (27)-
How will that bring back the value of your underwater house?
Frank, shouldn’t today be the day you do something stupid and lose your job?
Make today count, Frank.
How about I buy few thousand homes today instead??
How about some UYG and URE??
From 1994 through 2009, according to the Case-Shiller index, U.S. home prices produced an annualized return of 4.7% a year. The picture since 1987 has been even less appealing. Homes have only gained about 4.1% a year since then.
Wow great investement. Considering Mortgages were between 5-8% during that period, borrowing at 6.5% to buy something appreciating at 4.5% ain’t too smart.
to srs gurus on the board: srs pre-open at $18.90. what is your strategy? double down, stay put or bail out?
Double down on URE, it’s going up to $6.
30#, seriously, frank, since you said you are managing money for nj government, could you tell us what the story behind the lehman investment last year? how did your fund perform against industry benchmark last year?
[31] John says, “borrowing at 6.5% to buy something appreciating at 4.5% ain’t too smart.”
But your net borrowing rate after the tax deduction is about equal to the appreciation. Also, you’re building equity (again, if you’re time horizon is long enough). And, as I mentioned yesterday, your ROE (if there is one) is magnified because you’re leveraged.
“Clotpoll says:
November 25, 2008 at 6:42 pm
yikes (67)-
FWIW, I’m building the position of a lifetime right now in SKF and SRS. SRS spent a decent part of today down into the 120s, which is just ridiculous, given the current circumstances. SKF hasn’t fallen as far, but still represents extreme value in the 160s.”
Clot - how close are you to filing personal bankruptcy?
Generally speaking I rather have my “head” rubbed in the bedroom.
safeashouses says:
June 1, 2009 at 8:16 am
I was in a 3 bedroom colonial in Westfield yesterday. The basement was so short my head rubbed against the ceiling. The attic was the third bedroom. There was only an area about as wide as a hallway I could walk upright in, the rest of the space you had to crouch or crawl.
35#, lurker, agree with you. one more important factor: you need a place to stay. you either pay the rent to your landlord our yourself.
From MarketWatch:
Savings rate climbs to 14-year high on tax cuts
The U.S. personal savings rate jumped to a 14-year high of 5.7% in April as after-tax incomes were boosted by provisions of the economic stimulus plan, the Commerce Department reported Monday.
The stimulus was supposed to increase spending to give the economy additional support, but the 1.1% rise in disposable incomes in April mostly went into savings, the government said.
Real consumer spending fell 0.1%, the second consecutive decline and the 8th decline in the past 11 months. Inflation-adjusted spending in April was lower than it was in December 2006.
The tax cut in the stimulus plan added $49.8 billion on an annual rate to disposable incomes in April. Another provision added $25 a week to unemployment compensation, adding $11.8 billion annually to incomes.
Headline inflation was modest in April, with consumer prices rising 0.1%. Core prices - which exclude food and energy prices - rose 0.3%.
Wages and salaries were unchanged in April, the first time since September that wages didn’t fall.
In 2008, NJ’s pension fund outperformed the pension funds of a large majority of states. That isn’t a perfect benchmark, but it highlights a diabolical focus by many njreport readers on a single investment that was just a small part of the portfolio.
NJ’s pension fund did well compared to its peers in 2008. Bashing the fund due to its Lehman investment is akin to judging a baseball player based on a single at bat. It reveals more about the critic than the target of his criticism.
#38 bi,
you either pay the rent to your landlord our yourself.
not true. i got my eye on a nice overpass on 78.
bi,
In all seriousness. I haven’t added since SRS was at 28. I certainly wouldn’t add any more until it looks like the wheels are coming off the bus known as the great and almighty U.S. economy. Of course most economic reports are looking like there is steel protruding out of the radials, but the markets are still sensing green shoots.
Doubling down here can just inflict much more pain. Better to wait for things to settle and lose a little upside rather than risk greater downside. A jumbo jet crashes near Brazil and GM declares bankruptcy hammering the taxpayer even harder and the markets rally! This is why I’m not shorting any more quite yet. Hopefully soon, but just not quite yet.
Disclaimer: If you were following my advice for the last 6 months, you’d likely be more pissed off than Gary.
Meanwhile, many individuals remain overly concerned
about inflation, in our view.
The sharp rise in treasury yields has brought with it a renewed worry that, somehow,
the increase in spending and borrowing by the Federal Government is going to lead
to a sharp rebound in inflation expectations, and ultimately in inflation. Our
economists continue to feel strongly that this is not the case. We have discussed this
a number of times before, but felt it important to summarize our thoughts,
particularly in light of a couple of articles about inflation risks in the financial press
that we consider to be particularly misguided. Our thoughts can be summarized as
follows:
1 Don’t confuse higher Treasury yields with inflation, which many people do. We
almost certainly will end up with substantially higher Treasury yields for a
multitude of reasons, including the massive amount we will have to sell as a
result of the current deficit, and the fact that today’s rates are being held down by
the Federal Reserve (albeit to a lesser degree).
2 On the other hand, don’t confuse a growing money supply with inflation, either.
Economists focus on money supply in conjunction with the velocity of money,
which has collapsed. Money supply times velocity essentially equals aggregate
demand. Inflation is largely a demand phenomenon: When demand outpaces
supply, prices rise. With demand weak, corporate pricing power non-existent,
wage levels under downward pressure, and the slope of the expected rebound in
the economy likely to be very modest when it does arrive, inflation is unlikely to
bounce back over the next 3-5 years. In the meantime, our economists expect
rising economic slack in the US and globally to undermine pricing power across
the board, and real wages to stay under pressure for a considerable period of time
in an environment of elevated unemployment.
3 In other words, demand is down, in the US and globally, and it won’t be getting
up any time soon. Typically, US recession have been v-shaped: the faster the
economy dropped, the faster it rebounded, bringing demand and the threat of
inflation along with it. Unfortunately, recessions resulting from financial crises
tend to be a special breed, with less potential for a rebound that mirrors the
collapse. Along with the collapse in the velocity of money, we have several other
patterns that are likely to reduce the potential for inflation any time soon:
the erasure of about $12 trillion in wealth in the US and $50 trillion globally
a collapse in the use of leverage
In the US specifically, a rapidly and structurally changing attitude about saving
versus spending, as noted above. Fears about rebuilding wealth and retirement
wealth and income should tend to keep this pattern intact for a while.
Real wage growth that isn’t coming back any time soon.
Global overcapacity in almost every sector of the economy, which tends to
dampen the potential for pricing power.Our economists note that long-term inflation expectations, as measured by the
University of Michigan Survey, remain extremely well anchored in the 2.7%
range, close to lows since 1990. Our economist’s projections for CPI inflation
also remains quite low, at -0.9% for this year, 0.4% next year, 1.0% in 2011,
1.5% in 2012, and finally back up to the 2.0% range in 2013. By 2012-3 under
this base case, they expect the fed to begin pulling in the reins modestly, pushing
Fed Funds back over 3.0% to forestall any threat of inflation.
5 Throughout all of this, there isn’t a body of central banker anywhere who didn’t
take an important lesson from the mistakes of the 1960’s and 1970’s: that a slow,
steady inflation rate provides the best platform for real, rather than nominal,
growth. In the view of the economists we talk to, that attitude is entrenched, and
unlikely to change in our lifetimes. The good news right now is that, political
attitudes in Congress notwithstanding, the Fed has great power to dial back on
demand once the economy truly starts to recover, long before structural inflation
becomes a threat. Indeed, with the Fed so entrenched in our entire financial
infrastructure, they actually have more tools than in the past to dial back when
they think they need to.
6 The idea of inflating our way out of the deficit, as some fear, is simply
unworkable, despite fears among many investors that it will be tried. Why?
Because if it ever becomes clear that the Fed is giving in to this strategy, longterm
Treasury yields can be expected to skyrocket, taking the deficit higher, and
dampening access to capital for other purposes–a process that used to be known
as “crowding out.”
So, no, we don’t see a spike in inflation in the foreseeable future. In fact, one
investment we continue to express concern about is TIPs. If long-term Treasury
yields go sharply higher in the absence of higher inflation, holders of long-dated
TIPs will see severe price pressure on their holdings, as they did recently.
“you either pay the rent to your landlord our yourself.”
You can rent a place to live or rent a mortgage with sky high taxes and carrying costs. As prices continue to decline, you can kiss your down payment goodbye. Ask for gap insurance upon closing. In addition to this, if your job is in jeopardy, good luck. Mobility is out of the question with a black hole tied to your hip.
The asset declines but the debt remains.
36#, lurk, he was playing zimbabwe dollar at that time. as he said last week, he was acttully buying at 20’s.
Here is my prediction again: when srs is trading at single digit, he would say that most of his buys were at one handle.
> Clot - how close are you to filing personal bankruptcy?
“3 In other words, demand is down, in the US and globally, and it won’t be gettingup any time soon. Typically, US recession have been v-shaped: the faster the economy dropped, the faster it rebounded, bringing demand and the threat of inflation along with it. Unfortunately, recessions resulting from financial crises tend to be a special breed, with less potential for a rebound that mirrors the collapse.”
J,
Great post. Green shoots?
John,
I have never witnessed such an even split between economists around the inflation deflation scenario. We are in seriously uncharted waters.
We got out of the debt hole post WWII as much of Europe’s manufacturing base was destroyed by the war. This time around, we don’t have any global advantage. If I were long, I wouldn’t be long us.
bi [45],
Worry about your own book. What you don’t have on, can’t hurt you.
I would imagine that most, who opt to focus on others, are actually getting pummeled themselves.
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/category/uncategorized
Head to the bottom of the page: antidote du jour…
(20) Clot - “No need to clutter your backyard with expensive climbing/gym sets, either.”
Maybe not always a good idea…
{26] safe,
Good home for train buffs. Nothing like being woken at all hours to the sounds of freight trains. And they really lean on the horns on that line. More than once, I ran for the RVL only to realize it was the freight train horns I was hearing.
48#, bob, glad to hear your news last week so i can hear your lecture here for free for a foreseable future. by the way, i am seriously considering what i can trade for adding me to your email list.
i am cautious about my own book each day so i paied capital gain tax last year and i expect to pay again this year.
>Worry about your own book. What you don’t have on, can’t hurt you.
#26 safe: Never, ever, ever, buy a house on a busy street. Anything else can be fixed; a busy street is forever.
#35 lurker: Are you counting in those 10k a year property taxes? 20 years (long term) at 10k a year (assuming no increases) is 200k. Even with the tax deduction, which many will not be able to utilize in the first place.
#38 bi: A typical underwater buyers response.
#50 nom,
The houses we saw in Westfield were in nice shape, but so small with 7k a year or more in taxes.
Saw a house in Cranford that looked nice on the outside but was not on the inside. The agent told us it was in a flood zone too.
Is it too much to ask to be able to buy a house in a town that doesn’t have a gang presence and the house is not on the tracks, under a high voltage tower, near a chemical plant, in a flood zone, or on a highway and we don’t have to make 180k a year to pull it off?
Bi (51) -
Congratulations! Have you considered applying for the NJ Pension Fund job as you are probably the only person who made money last year by being long the market.
Cindy (49):
The only thing that would have made those playground pictures better would have been if a bear was riding on the tire swing.
http://new.gsmls.com/publicsite/propsearch.do?method=moredetails&sysid=2577183
Nice house in New Providence. Taxes only $31K.
3b says:
June 1, 2009 at 9:14 am
#35 lurker: Are you counting in those 10k a year property taxes? 20 years (long term) at 10k a year (assuming no increases) is 200k. Even with the tax deduction, which many will not be able to utilize in the first place.
—-
The tax deduction is for home mortgage interest, which everybody gets to utilize. As for the 10k, if your 500k house appreciates only 2% a year, well then you’re covered.
Again, I’m not advocating that People Must Buy. I’m just saying if you’re going to do the math then include all the pieces. The borrowing costs, theh closing costs, the property taxes and the maintenance against the equity, the build-up of equity from principal repayment, the return on equity from being leveraged, and any possible equity from price appreciation. Then decide. If you want the flexibility to move in a few years and/or think housing is in the pooper then don’t buy.
My wife asked me this morning if we can’t afford to buy a decent house, who is buying them.
I told her dinks, clowns, or no one.
56#, vic, not yet since i have the best job i can have. in addition, my friend frank are doing a great job at nj pension fund.
re: #7 Grim - I bet the EndCap landfill project is more polluted now than from before they tried to cover it.
My question for the Realtors here is how do you sell houses for 750k a pop that are on top of a landfill that could form sinkholes and the the deed comes with restrictions about toxic trash and emergency methane gas release alarms?
Vic [56],
In 2008 the S&P’s went from 1,400 to 900. It’s amazing, at least to me, that a bull would be paying capital gain taxes, with a market down 35%.
I guees it’s possible that Bi was actually short and is just confused. He/she may think that short is bullish?
#59 lurker til now
I was playing around with the rent vs buy calculator on trulia last night.
If we could buy a house for 15% off list, spend 5% of the purchase price on renovations, get a 2% annual appreciation rate, it would take us about 6 years to break even after factoring in closing costs for buying and reselling the place in rent vs buy scenartio.
If we could find a house we really liked and could afford, we could see buying it, especially if there was room to expand the house or great space in the basement to finish.
Unfortunately when we are both working daycare costs are so high I don’t think we would have the cash flow to do any serious upgrades or remodels until the littlest one is in 1st or 2nd grade. (Don’t get me started on daycare/after school care costs, it’s like having a 400 to 500k mtg)
guess.
My question for the Realtors here
The simple answer is that I wouldn’t. I’d advise clients to stay away.
[60] safe,
You saw my place in Brigadoon. Nice house for me but not everything I wanted, and still a fcukload of cash. The only, ONLY, reason I can still justify that decision is knowing that my girls will have a stable, long term (hopefully on both counts) home to grow up in.
Otherwise, I simply cannot justify that decision. Refi’ing down to 4.625% helps, but knowing precisely how bad off NJ is financially gives me a great deal of pause.
Consider also that Missus’ line of work is pretty much centered here, and my pedigree goes a lot farther in NJ than in NYC or Boston. So we aren’t expecting to go anywhere. I am pissing away money on this place, but I am doing so over a very long timeline. But for anyone that may pull up roots and move to another part of the country (or another country), owning a home here makes little more sense for them than it does for a professional athlete. Maybe even less.
#67 nom,
I crunched the numbers and figured out we’d have to earn about 170k a year with 1 kid in daycare, 1 in after school care, 1 car payment or 1 of us commuting to NYC, no vacations, little to none contributions to education and retirement funds to carry a 450 to 500k house in a good town while living paycheck to paycheck.
68…lower your sites.
63#, bob, first you should ask why a bull will visit this bear camp. second you should question why an end-of-the-world paster like you will take a ride on Citi shares but the other side would not take advantage of extreme market conditions.
wow this is the first bond I bought in almost a week. Just to show you guys I have not thrown in the towel yet. This is part of my Bill Gross/Warren Buffet strategy. Bill, says get in bed with the Fed, this is one of the chosen 19 banks, Warren says anytime you can get an investment grade bond over 10% buy it as long term stock market returns 10%, if you can get 10% or better on an investment grade bond you are beating the market with less risk.
School over.
Filled at $77.10, Bond CUSIP 316773CH1,
Description FIFTH THIRD BANCORP BOND, 08.25000% 03/01/2038, Action Buy
Quantity 10,000.00 Yield 10.872%
[64] safe,
Six years sounds about right. The old guideline used to be about five years to break even so that’s not so far off. That being said, I wouldn’t recommend buying if you’ll be living paycheck to paycheck. When we first bought we moved twenty minutes west of Westfield because Westfield was way too much $$ for us. Is it possible for you to expand your search to less expensive towns?
Easy fix, have wife stay home and drive used car.
safeashouses says:
June 1, 2009 at 9:40 am
#67 nom,
I crunched the numbers and figured out we’d have to earn about 170k a year with 1 kid in daycare, 1 in after school care, 1 car payment or 1 of us commuting to NYC, no vacations, little to none contributions to education and retirement funds to carry a 450 to 500k house in a good town while living paycheck to paycheck.
Kettle 16 - Glad you found it useful. In my heyday of using Priceline, I used to stay in the Parc Hyatt in SF for $65/night. Combine that with an elite upgrade to first class while flying on a $180RT on Continental (our corp agent used to get us a 36% discount off of ANY Continental fare into SFO because it was a hub for a competing airline). Those were great times.
For the rest of you folks, here’s your 11 minute warning to the Springsteen on-sale. Good luck!
“would not take advantage of extreme market conditions.”
bi [70],
Another missed memo. Take a look at crb and currencies backed by tangibles.
Citi, a date, not even a kiss. I don’t let my personal sentiment overide signals.
#68 safeashouses
would that be 450-500k mortgage balance or price you paid w/ %20 down?
[74] gator,
did you see the FL women’s softball earn a berth in the WS with a walk off grand slam?
# 72 lurker
We’ve been looking between Bedminster and Cranford.
We saw a really nice 3 bedroom 2 bath in Watchung yesterday at 449k. The 3rd bedroom was way too small and a tiny closet, but the place had a great lot, was pleasing to the eye, and good bones.
1 agent in Cranford even admitted that prices are dropping over 1% a month. A few other agents told us just give me a figure, everything is negotiable.
You never break even on a house, it is a bad investment. You buy a house like you buy a work of art or a classic car cause you want to and if you are lucky you may make some coin, that is not an investment and BE is nonsense.
lurker til now says:
June 1, 2009 at 9:45 am
[64] safe,
Six years sounds about right. The old guideline used to be about five years to break even so that’s not so far off. That being said, I wouldn’t recommend buying if you’ll be living paycheck to paycheck. When we first bought we moved twenty minutes west of Westfield because Westfield was way too much $$ for us. Is it possible for you to expand your search to less expensive towns?
This is pretty funny!
http://tinyurl.com/candidate-trains
#76 crossroads,
That’s the purchase price range with 10% down.
#79 John: I agree.
safe,
Watchung is a great area. I’m sure you’ll find something perfect between Bedminster and Cranford that doesn’t involve living paycheck to paycheck. And enjoy looking - looking is free ;).
[79] John
This is correct. Even before this downturn, houses had to appreciate by a respectable percentage to be worthwhile investments. Now, they are depreciating assets, and the factors influencing depreciation here are more pronounced. The crushing tax bill, and the almost certain prospect of even higher tax bills, will further drive down prices and keep them down for pretty much our lifetimes, IMHO.
I expect to lose money on my house in Brigadoon. I am only hoping that it isn’t that much. I figure that the loss carryforward I will realize on it will pretty much negate taxes in my retirement (and yes, I do expect to be able to deduct the losses as I will go from homeowner to landlord some time before I sell, try to rent for big bucks, then decided to get out of the business, and since the house is now a business asset, you get to deduct the loss).
John says:
June 1, 2009 at 10:07 am
You never break even on a house, it is a bad investment. You buy a house like you buy a work of art or a classic car cause you want to and if you are lucky you may make some coin, that is not an investment and BE is nonsense.
————————–
Yup. Buy a house if you can afford it and not as an investment. And afford means not just PITI, but ability pay house related expenses and still have money to save for retirement, college, emergencies, etc. and have a reasonable lifestyle. For this reason, avoid trying to time a house purchase, but buy when you are comfortable with the price.
77 Nom - Didn’t see it live, but saw the replay on ESPN. Awesome! Even down to the Bama player flipping over the fence trying to catch it!
“You never break even on a house, it is a bad investment.”
John,
I just don’t know what to say :). I guess maybe you’re looking at owning a house as a pure investment. Does it outperform stocks and bonds? No idea. Does it beat renting? I think so, but that all depends on how long you hold the house and what you could otherwise rent a similar space.
But, if your only goal is to make money, then rent a tiny room in somebody’s basement and put everything you’ve got into the bond, equity or commodity market of your choice. Otherwise, live a little :)
safe
or anybody. what % of the population is making 170k a year?
#79 John,
I agree.
P.S. That being said, I still think RE is less a suckers bet than other markets but I guess that just means we invest in what we know. You know bonds so you invest in bonds. Power to you.
safe
I guess you have to ask yourself do you live for a house or do you live for life?. is renting cheaper for you?
#87 lurker: Nobody mionds living a little or a lor for that matter. 10k a year in property taxes with no end in sight, can drain that living. You cannmot explaint hat away.
As far as rising in value. House prices during the last declien stayed falt for 10 years;property taxes did not.
Prices in NJ are coming down, no surprise, there. I am far more concerned with the increase in taxes.
I am also concerned about the legacy we are leaving for the next generation.
#92
“I am also concerned about the legacy we are leaving for the next generation”
well said. things have to change or our children and their children are screwed. The state and fed. are doing what many Americans have done in recent years borrowing they’re way to wealth
RE: safeashouses @ June 1, 2009 at 8:22 am
A bi-level can have “good bones” with the addition of a bulldozer. Splits, too.
Safe..
I hate to break it to you, but kids tend to get a little more expensive every year. I suppose you could see a brief drop when school starts, but trust me, your nut ain’t going down…
3b,
Again, the property taxes will probably be more than covered by appreciation over the long term. At the same time you’ll be paying yourself to live in the house, increasingly each year as your mortgage payments go more and more toward principal. So you really don’t need appreciation beyond property taxes and maintenance to make a house a good investment as long as you hold onto it long enough to cover closing costs (5-6 years). But if you think home prices at then end of five years will be down, not up, then absolutely don’t buy.
RE: John says @ June 1, 2009 at 8:35 am
“Homes have only gained about 4.1% a year since then.”
Less maintenance, repairs, realtor fees, transaction fees, insurance, mortgage interest, and opportunity costs, they’re negative.
#91 crossroads
Renting is cheaper, but I strongly suspect our landlord is headed for financial trouble and we’ll have to move this fall.
If we could find a ranch or split in decent shape that would cost a little more to own then renting a similar place we’d be very interested.
RE: “Also, you’re building equity”
“Equity” is not money. Factor in “negative equity” as well.
Actually, equity is money. And it’s actually fairly liquid thanks to te advent of the home equity loan. But yes, negative equity is a very real possibility. That’s why you should always plan on holding RE for at least five years to spread out closing costs and to minimize depreciation risk.
safe
maybe the bank holding your rental will give you a good deal. I wouldn’t want to play that game. good luck! It was said earlier taxes will be the wild card. If taxes double in 5 years lookout
#95 curmudgeon,
Thanks for the warning. And then there’s college costs too.
“Again, the property taxes will probably be more than covered by appreciation over the long term.”
96,
Over the long term, RE appreciation has been at/near the rate of inflation. You own a nominal loser. Now deduct monthly and annual carrying costs and you have real losses.
In addition to this, who cares about the long term regarding RE. The avg property is held for 7 years.
Buy a place that you can afford and are attracted to the area. An investment, forget about it, unless you own rental property. A primary residence is consumption.
“Actually, equity is money. And it’s actually fairly liquid thanks to te advent of the home equity loan.”
[100],
Rear view mirror.
#96 lurked:Again, the property taxes will probably be more than covered by appreciation over the long term.
I do not believe that for a minute, when taxes were in the 2500-5000k range and stable than yes, but not now.
First,
France Air Bus down over the Atlantic.
Horrible.
228 people on board.
Second,
“Over the long term, RE appreciation has been at/near the rate of inflation. You own a nominal loser. Now deduct monthly and annual carrying costs and you have real losses.”
But nobody seems to take into account that at some point you’re lmost “renting” your house for free. As the mortgage progresses, the interest portion of the payment decreases. In a few years, interest costs will be substantially less than comparable rents. At the terminus of the loan, my ONLY expenses are taxes and maintenance.
#98 safeashouses: You should take a look at this
http://www.njmls.com/cf/details.cfm?mls_number=2923741&id=999999
I own real estate, stocks and bonds. I also do plan on buying another house, but not to make money, just want to wait till we get to bottom so the worst case is it is dead money or slightly negative month to month. Right now high end homes are dropping 10K a month.
lurker til now says:
June 1, 2009 at 10:21 am
P.S. That being said, I still think RE is less a suckers bet than other markets but I guess that just means we invest in what we know. You know bonds so you invest in bonds. Power to you.
Lear Chooses Not To Pay Bond Interest, Stock Shoots Higher
Posted by Tyler Durden at 10:48 AM
When a stock goes up by about 10% on bankruptcy preannouncements, there is nothing much more to be said. In a press release earlier, Lear, critical D-3 parts supplier, and target of a Carl Icahn takeover attempt in 2007 (I bet shareholders who voted down that $37.25 offer back then are feeling really retarded right now), has announced that, just like all other nationalized car companies, it has decided it feels no need to pay its bonds and has entered a 30 day grace period (if the payment has still not been made at the end of the period, add one more company to Taxpayer Capital LP’s portfolio).
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/06/lear-announces-it-prepares-to-enter.html
RE: “Actually, equity is money. And it’s actually fairly liquid thanks to te advent of the home equity loan.”
Debt isn’t money either.
“Debt isn’t money either.”
You lost me. In your book, or in mine?
If I have equity, I can borrow against it. It is money. Cold, hard cash. Once I borrow it, I have debt. That’s an IOU. If I pay my IOU then I am out money. If I default then the bank that holds the IOU gets my house to sell and they try to get their money back. Where are we going with this?
#107 3b,
That’s the type of house we’ve been looking at. That seems reasonably priced.
I read the posts over the weekend about that one, about 30% off peak isn’t it?
“just want to wait till we get to bottom so the worst case is it is dead money or slightly negative month to month”
J,
Similar. Just hoping, when I buy, to be not much worse than slightly negative.
3b [107],
Did you see that house?
Debt is a liability. In my view a liability isn’t money.
One who has $1 million in available credit isn’t a millionaire.
This is great info for us all. Glad you posted this. I am subscribing to this blog. Will
I just looked up 3 bedrooms in Long Branch.
can’t stop laughing at the asking prices.
Long Branch has tons of beautiful pre WW2 colonials, too bad most are in not so good areas.
Lennar’s new smaller home designs will be featured in the Bali neighborhood, one of the five Communities located within the 250-acre StoneWater master-planned community in Cary. Bali will feature single-family homes ranging in size from 1,475 to 2,113 square feet. The smallest floor plan design offers three bedrooms, two and half bathrooms and prices will start at $189,990. Some of the highlighted features will be 9-foot ceilings on the first floor, hardwood floors in the foyer and luxurious master bathrooms with separate tub and shower areas.
Remind me somebody - Why am I in central NJ again??? What can I buy here for 189K??
#112 safe: Yes we took a look at it yesterday,and it is really in very good shape.
LR and DR, which is unusual for capes, 2 good size bedrooms down stairs, plus 1 full bath ( bath dated, but in good condition). Decent closet space all around.
The kitchen is small, but in good shape. Upstairs 2 bedrooms, half dormed, kind of dies up there, but still in decent shape. Also another full bath small, but new.
Huge high basement, nice piece of property taxes are 9k.
We would seriously consider putting a bid in on it, but really would like a bigger kitchen.
#114 BC Bob: yes, and it was in very good shape, see post 119.
#118 Al
you, like Bogart in Casablanca, are here for the water.
[115] That’s right.
Taleb goes long on inflation.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124380234786770027.html#mod=testMod
There will be no hyperinflation scenario for quite a while. The Fed and Treasury will purposefully tank the stock market rather than let that happen.
GM is closing the Wilmington, DE plant. This is a Saturn plant and it was retooled a few years ago to make smaller cars. So they will probably retool a plant in OH or MI that makes big cars to make little cars.
It’s a myth that we need to save GM (or the UAW) to make cars in America. This mess is going to cost US taxpayers about $50 Billion.
I remember when $1 Billion was a lot of money
NE Monmouth anecdata:
Went to 5 open houses this weekend (2 Middletown, 1 in Fair Haven, 1 Red Bank, 1 Rumson).
All houses were re-listed below the orginal asking price, one has much as 12%. All have been on the market >90 days. One had gone under contract and fell through. Realtor attitude was pretty subdued, the new catch phrase seems to be “make any offer”. One realtor harped on “historically low interest rates that wont be around much longer”.
Foot traffic was vey slow in each. All in all I would say there aren’t a whole lot of buyers out there now.
[92] 3b
“I am also concerned about the legacy we are leaving for the next generation.”
I am looking into what it takes to get my children another nationality and passport.
Beyond that, I am not saying what I plan to do, though you can find out (at my normal hourly rates).
I really should consider buying stock in American Girl. Given what my family spends there, it has to be printing money.
And here is the dish on their latest offering:
“There’s wanted and then there’s WANTED.
American Girl, the doll company based in Middleton, Wis., is expecting strong demand for the newest doll in its historical character line. The 18-inch doll, which went on sale on Sunday, is named Rebecca Rubin and comes with a storybook that describes her life in 1914, growing up on the Lower East Side as the daughter of Jewish Russian immigrants.
But the F.B.I. is more interested in another Rebecca Rubin. Rebecca J. Rubin, who sometimes goes by the alias Little Missy, is a fugitive who was indicted in 2006 in a series of arson fires in Oregon dating to 1997, according to her F.B.I. wanted poster.
The wanted Ms. Rubin carries a $50,000 reward and “should be considered armed and dangerous,” her wanted poster says. The doll Ms. Rubin costs $95 and can be bought with pet kittens and a toy challah bread.”
My older daughter already has 4 AG dolls, and a battalion of barbies and barbie-type figurines. If her little sister follows suit, I will be able to finance retirement on a yard sale of epic proportions.
Hey where are all the short seller today?
That is good news!!! Real original bond holders have long left a company that is shakey and near bankruptch. The vulture investors, including me move in when bonds are betwen 20-40% cents on a dollar. We are more than happy to get a few coupon payment and get a cram down at 50-60 cents on a dollar. That is good for vulture bondholders and company. GM had a problem that ma and pa held onto bonds that have been junk since 2005.
HEHEHE says:
June 1, 2009 at 10:57 am
Lear Chooses Not To Pay Bond Interest, Stock Shoots Higher
“Investors sceptical on stock market rebound
By Peter Garnham in London
Published: June 1 2009 00:08 | Last updated: June 1 2009 00:08
The majority of the world’s leading investors do not believe the recent strong performance of stocks and other risky assets is sustainable, according to a report released on Monday.
The FTSE All World equities index has surged more than 60 per cent since hitting a low for the year in March.”
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/52c9f2a8-4e1a-11de-a0a1-00144feabdc0.html?nclick_check=1
Yet up and up it goes!
re: #129 John- Busy shorting Citigroup for next week.
Nom (128): I looked into American Girl about 4 years ago. Owned by Mattel and a tiny piece of their business, although it is godly profitable. Unfortunately, you have to buy all of Mattel’s other poor decisions with it. I rode Mattel from 5 to 10 dollars back then and then bailed as Barbie was killing them.
John,
Good for you, bad for the over all economy. More layoffs, more pissed off people looking for work. Lear, Visteon, Metaldyne, the list will continue to grow.
John (129):
Opposite world continues. When this rally ends, it could be really ugly!
“Even Discover Financial (DFS 10.09, +0.53) is up markedly in the face of news that Moody’s has downgraded Discover’s ratings, and assigned a negative outlook to the company. Moody’s downgrade reflects the view that Discover’s intrinsic credit quality has been diminished by reduced financial flexibility, including reduced access to the securitization market.”
Bargain of the day: SRS @ $16
[133] stu
My older daughter is apparently doing her level best to restore Mattel’s flagging fortunes.
19.gary says:
June 1, 2009 at 7:58 am
Pay close attention to the beautiful view of the high voltage tower in photo #8. It’s great for outdoor entertaining as it makes a fabulous topic for discussion.
gary: Come on gary. I’d pay up for it. It is cheaper and less painful than a vasectomy.
I found this little gem from an article that linked to this Greider article from 2003:
http://www.thenation.com/doc/20030630/greider
“At the risk of sounding like Chicken Little, I am going to describe the economic situation in plain English. The United States is flirting with a low-grade depression, one that may last for years unless the government takes decisive action to overcome it. This would most likely be depression with a small d, not the financial collapse and “grapes of wrath” devastation Americans experienced during the Great Depression of the 1930s. But the potential consequences, especially for the less affluent and the young, would be severe enough–a long interlude of sputtering stagnation, years of tepid growth and stubbornly high unemployment, punctuated occasionally with a renewed recession. Depression means an economy that is stuck in a ditch and cannot get out, unable to regain its normal energies for expansion. Japan, second-largest economy in the world, has been in this condition for roughly twelve years, following the collapse of its own financial bubble. If the same fate has befallen the United States, the globalized economy is imperiled, too, since America’s market for imports and its huge trade deficits keep the global trading system afloat.
Most authorities, I should add, do not regard any of this as likely. . . . ”
Yeah.
36.lurkerd says:
June 1, 2009 at 8:47 am
n the 160s.”
Clot - how close are you to filing personal bankruptcy?
Come on dude…French Connection UK off..
I may like YAZ, But FAZ wow!!!!!! Makes GMs nine year slide from 90 to nothing seem like a walk in the park.
52 Week High 201.86 on 11/21/2008
52 Week Low 4.33 on 06/01/2009
Whoever shorted SRS back at the 52 Week High 295.7200 on 11/21/2008 is a rich man
71.John says:
June 1, 2009 at 9:45 am
wow this is the first bond I bought in almost a week. Just to show you guys I have not thrown in the towel yet. This is part of my Bill Gross/Warren Buffet strategy. Bill, says get in bed with the Fed, this is one of the chosen 19 banks, Warren says anytime you can get an investment grade bond over 10% buy it as long term stock market returns 10%, if you can get 10% or better on an investment grade bond you are beating the market with less risk.
School over.
Filled at $77.10, Bond CUSIP 316773CH1,
Description FIFTH THIRD BANCORP BOND, 08.25000% 03/01/2038, Action Buy
Quantity 10,000.00 Yield 10.872%
John: I don’t like that bond. I couldn’t give a sh!t about the credit. The fact that it is 38’s means that you never get taken out at par, which means that if inflation goes through the roof you will be French Connection UK’d. You have to go shorter….this thing is practically equity given the credit.
grim: Do you buy chance have any infor on 167 Tenney Ave in River Edge.
TRULIA says it closed on 4/13/09 for 205k, prior sale was in 1997 for 192K
This is what one of my friends says,
US citizens shouldn’t be allowed to short treasuries. At this point in time, you couldn’t do a more destructive thing to your country.
My answer was,
At this point in time we should ban selling treasuries. We shoudl make the politicians stop issuing short term debt.
One questions I have:
As a hedge play for the chinese shouldn’t they SHORT treasuries and slowly dump some greenbacks to protect themselves?
chi fi, that bond in a more normal time trades in the 90’s. FITB is raising capital and by 2011 should be upgraded, bond is non-callabe. It that thing gets an A rating on a non-callable 30 year bond with that high a coupon it should pop, but yes going out that long for yield is very very very risky. I only do that for high yield investment grade.
BTW what bond tips do you have today?
“look at the assessed value as I mentioned before. But after that it’s more art than science.”
Lurker, well said, thanks
Clot, 13 - thanks for the perspective. Personally, I’d happily pay 30k more for an extra half an acre yard but to Lurkers point, thats what makes a market i guess.
I guess assessors do put a universal value on attributes without consideration of personal preferences, almost as if everyone values pools and finished basements to the same degree…
Whereas when i see a pool, i think, oh no, dont want that headache. And then i mentally subtract $30k off my offer price.
Anyway, thanks again.
went to an open house yesterday in westchester. place was for sale in the low-600s, marked down from the low 800s. realtor was pumping it as a screaming value. only problem was that the people bought the place in 2001 for 350k and had made no improvements since. maybe I’m a bit too optomistic, but I don’t think any buyers out there are going to fall for this sh*t anymore. It really insults our intelligence to pretend these houses are bargains.
Frank,
I just picked up some more SRS. Thanks for your concerns idiot.
HEHEHE (124),
Right on. Playing that through SRS. Will see how it works out.
Oh the irony ….
Dow Jones swaps Travelers for Citigroup
http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.aspx?feed=AP&date=20090601&id=9967878
Culture wars heating up . . . First, a wing-nut conservative wacko kills a doc in Missouri, and attacks on military recruiting stations go from midnight bombings to this:
“Little Rock - One person is in custody, and two others have been transported to a local hospital in serious condition following a double-shooting in west Little Rock Monday morning.
Authorities say the incident occurred around 10:00 a.m. at the U.S. Army Navy Career Center inside the Ashley Square Shopping Center at 9112 North Rodney Parham Road. According to Lt. Terry Hastings with the Little Rock Police Department, two recruiting officers standing outside the office were hit when the unidentified suspect drove up in a black SUV and began shooting.
The suspect led police on a brief pursuit towards downtown Little Rock before being taken into custody in the area of the Interstate 30/630 interchange.
According to the Little Rock Fire Department, a bomb squad is currently on the scene, checking out a suspicious package inside the suspect’s vehicle.”
Could simply be drug deal gone bad, but IMHO, Far Left and Far Right are just as hostile toward each other as ever, and the propensity on the Left toward the violence long adopted by their Euro and 3rd World brethren suggests that that we are not long removed from a repeat of Greensboro, and perhaps several Greensboros.
146.John says:
June 1, 2009 at 12:46 pm
BTW what bond tips do you have today?
JJ: I was going to ask you the same thing. It is a little in-between here. Spreads are tighter, but absolute yields blow. If we have something that makes clot’s PST rocket, then buying stuff now is a death march.
BTW - did you see the Reese Weatherspoon in kneepads that I posted for you yesterday?
Chi FI, I have been going very long on since Feb when it feels right. I bought this one on April 7th and debating dumping it today to offset long FITB, it hurts to sell winners and losers.
Date Bought 4/7/2009 172967BU4 CITIGROUP INC BONDS 5.875% 02/22/2033 02/22/2033 10,000.0000 Paid $7,303.40 Current Value $5,110.00d Gain $2,193.40 or 42.92%
the idea of not treating a house as an investment is negligent when you could easily lose several hundred thousand dollars by buying too soon. many people’s entire lives have been f’d up by not focusing on the numbers enough
#149,
Hey moron, SRS is going down to $10. Buy URE instead.
Make,
If mortgage rates continue rising I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see the gubmint pull the string on the stock market to get people back into treasuries. These aren’t “hands off” types of guys.
ChiFi, I know I know. I need to offload some stuff. But I have been fairly rational in buying stuff that were insanely priced of multiple companies and even with a 5% 30 year bond rate most of my bonds are at double or triple that which means I can handle 500-1500bps increase before I am earning less than a 30 treasury.
157.John says:
June 1, 2009 at 12:56 pm
Use the money burning a hole in your pocket to hedge with PST/TBT?
Everyone else: advice specific to John. You cannot rely on this information for investment decisions. You must perform your own research to ensure suitability. There are a series of risks that are inherent in using such instruments. You must familiarize yourself with the publications produced by the sponsor.
The Dollar Tree has big posters in it’s windows regarding “Sales of Emergency Supplies”. Interesting, most of their supplies are from China, and they cater to the less affluent members of society. So, China will provision Emergency Supplies to the less affluent Americans. I thought “O” was taking care of them? Maybe that was part of Geitners discussions in China last week?
#148 skeptic:I don’t think any buyers out there are going to fall for this sh*t anymore. It really insults our intelligence to pretend these houses are bargains.
Agreed. The it is a bargain crap used to really p*ss me off, now I just laugh.
lurker– did you get here in a delorean? debt = money? house price appreciation should offset expenses and tax increases? maybe you haven’t been keeping up with the news but we are in the middle of the biggest real estate collapse in history. borrowing against a depreciating asset and/or counting on appreciation of such asset to offset your REAL living expenses is a great path to insolvency
safeashouses–
it is a waiting game. normal upper middle class people will be able to afford starter homes in good towns again soon, it is just a matter of watching the comps go lower bit by bit as the only people who sell are the ones who are forced to sell.
#162 safewho sell are the ones who are forced to sell.
Or those who want to sell, and understand the market has finally changed.
Maybe I will buy a far dated put contract on them. I want it as insurance only.
chicagofinance says:
June 1, 2009 at 1:04 pm
157.John says:
June 1, 2009 at 12:56 pm
Use the money burning a hole in your pocket to hedge with PST/TBT?
What about the abnormal ones? BTW how much does a normal upper middle class person make these days?
skep-tic says:
June 1, 2009 at 1:13 pm
safeashouses–
it is a waiting game. normal upper middle class people will be able to afford starter homes in good towns again soon, it is just a matter of watching the comps go lower bit by bit as the only people who sell are the ones who are forced to sell.
skep-tic says:
June 1, 2009 at 12:54 pm
the idea of not treating a house as an investment is negligent when you could easily lose several hundred thousand dollars by buying too soon. many people’s entire lives have been f’d up by not focusing on the numbers enough
—————
Treating houses as an investment is what got us into all this trouble in the first place; treat a house as shelter for which you should pay only reasonable amounts (meaning not overextending and still saving for future needs INDEPENDENT of the hosue) and everything becomes much clearer and easier.
# 161
skep
I would go 1 step further and say equity is only real money when you sell the house and put the cash in your pocket. you can borrow against it but you have to pay that money back.
So what advice do you have for me who feels if while waiting the mortage rates may creep back up to 6%. The last time we had a recession like this the mortage rates shot up to astronomical numbers, almost better off buying the house on your mastercard.
Its almost like a double edged sword. Will the prices on houses 30 miles outside of NYC continue to fall, or is there too many people in Northern NJ and too much bloody money that any decrease from here on would be a wash compared to increase in percentage rates.
Can anyone here explain why GM’s stock is up today? The common is now worthless, the prepackaged bankruptcy and assets sale will strip all of the value from the current GM and transfer it to the new GM so what gives?
lurk d (36)-
Maybe you can find the post from last Fall, where I stated that all further SRS/SKF investments of mine would be with the house’s money.
As of today, I’m averaged into SRS in the low $20’s…with the house’s money.
All disclaimers: lurker d is a trolling idiot.
168
affordability will come into play with interest rates. it all has to balance out price + interest rate + taxes all have to be considered and as said earlier by duck future needs independent of the house. like food
BC (44)-
Thanks for again pointing out the painfully obvious fact that neither bi, Frank nor lurker d can somehow grasp.
Skep
“it is just a matter of watching the comps go lower bit by bit as the only people who sell are the ones who are forced to sell.”
That’s really it at the end of the day. The downward price creep is sooo slow, like watching paint dry. In the neighborhood we want to move to, there have been 2 closings in 2009! Two! In 2008 there were over 20 by June 15th. This gives the current sellers the false hope of using Q3/Q4 2008 comparables (or even earlier) to set their asking prices. The market has changed so much for the worse, but nobody wants to acknowledge it and be the first to accept the lower price. Not to mention, there are still enough suckers out there to give sellers just enough continued false hope.
“So what advice do you have for me who feels if while waiting the mortage rates may creep back up to 6%.”
You can always re-finance, but once you overpay, your dp is lost and it may take a decade or more to get it back.
Is this old or a sign on the times - HGTV now has a program tracking people seeking rentals?
Interesting article about how easy it was to go under- from a NY Times Economic Reporter- Edmund Andrews.
“If there was anybody who should have avoided the mortgage catastrophe, it was I. As an economics reporter for The New York Times, I have been the paper’s chief eyes and ears on the Federal Reserve for the past six years. I watched Alan Greenspan and his successor, Ben S. Bernanke, at close range. I wrote several early-warning articles in 2004 about the spike in go-go mortgages. Before that, I had a hand in covering the Asian financial crisis of 1997, the Russia meltdown in 1998 and the dot-com collapse in 2000. I know a lot about the curveballs that the economy can throw at us.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/17/magazine/17foreclosure-t.html?pagewanted=1
This rally is not sustainable which is exactly why I chose to liquidate and rollover my 401k into an IRA right now.
[173] JBJB, well said.
How much of the market rally is related to the dollar falling against other currencies?
skep-tic, I don’t think I’m agreeing or disagreeing with you. I’m just saying that the math all depends on your assumptions. If you assume 2% - 4 % appreciation then that offsets the tax expense with some maintenance thrown in. If you assume moderate depreciation then renting may be more appealing but it may be a toss up. If you assume that housing is imploding then you don’t buy.
Silera
This reporter was exposed to be a bit of a fraud. Turns out his wife was a serial bankrupter with a long history of living well beyond her means. He conveniently left this out of the story ot make it seem as if he was some lowley victim of evil mortgage brokers.
http://meganmcardle.theatlantic.com/archives/2009/05/the_road_to_bankruptcy.php
MBS ALERT: The Floor is Falling…BEWARE
by Adam Quinones
Posted Jun 01 2009, 10:33 AM
The release of the ISM Manufacturing data has left the fixed income sector weaker after market participants noted the rise in the “PRICES” portion of the report…which unexpectedly rose 11.5 points from 32.0 to 43.5 in May. This coupled with rising commodity prices and TIMMMMAY speaking in China about the budget deficit has refocused investor’s on the detrimental effects inflationcan have on a fixed income portfolio. Stocks are trading aggressively in the green (8:1 buy vs. sell) after the New Orders component of the ISM report went over 50…from contracting to expanding.
Since the open the benchmark 10 yr Treasury note has lost 45 ticks in price (-1-13) and its yield has risen 12bps from 3.51% to 3.63%….
#84 Nom,
See Treas Reg 1.165-9(b)(2)
Not sure why so many people are hung up on buying in North Jersey. Who cares about home price when you are going to pay 10k a year in property tax. At that kind of cost commuting is a viable alternative.
John (164)-
Channeling Buffett?
“Maybe I will buy a far dated put contract on them. I want it as insurance only.”
“Not sure why so many people are hung up on buying in North Jersey. Who cares about home price when you are going to pay 10k a year in property tax.”
This is becoming the norm in CNJ as well, even is areas not run by machine democrats.
[183] pa
A fair point, and that’s what I get for not providing a well-reasoned analysis on this blog (which is something I tpyically don’t do).
You assume, however, that I will still be the owner of record at the time, and have done a straight up conversion of use prior to sale. This, as we both know, won’t fly. See Grohse, T.C. Memo 1968-47.
Without getting into specifics, I have no intention of making it that easy for the IRS.
What happens is as the years wear on, you mortgage deduction grows smaller and smaller while if your income rises you get phased out of RE tax deduction, all along RE taxes and homeowners insurance rise while things break. 2-4% apreciation also is not much considering you are borrown at 5%. Compare this to buying a muni bond at 5%. In the muni bond you get 5% tax free expense free year after year. The only really savings to homeownership is historically rents rise 3% a year while you have locked in your montly cost by owning. Of course rents do fall and you may have locked in a higher rent, just ask anyone who bought a wall street condo in 2007.
lurker til now says:
June 1, 2009 at 1:49 pm
skep-tic, I don’t think I’m agreeing or disagreeing with you. I’m just saying that the math all depends on your assumptions. If you assume 2% - 4 % appreciation then that offsets the tax expense with some maintenance thrown in. If you assume moderate depreciation then renting may be more appealing but it may be a toss up. If you assume that housing is imploding then you don’t buy.
#188 John: You and I agree yet again. The world is certainly changing.
[181] JB
I’m shocked, shocked, to learn that there is factual slanting going on by MSM reporters.
Not sure what others think, but I think $100-150k is upper middle class. On this income you should be able to afford a $300-450k house. Pre-2002, this would put you in range for just about all capes, ranches and splits in many good towns. I think we are heading back to this because nothing else is sustainable. It just takes time to unravel because RE is so illiquid.
[176] Silera
per JB’s post, I nominate Andrews for the Mike Barnicle Award for truth in reporting.
#184 james: Who cares about home price when you are going to pay 10k a year in property tax.”
And that is whu prices in the NY metro area, including north Jersey, will decline more than other areas.
You cannot have high prices,and high taxes, in an area that is rapidly losing high paying jobs, in the middle of an ugly recession.
#180 lurked: If you assume 2% - 4 % appreciation
What happens if there is no apprecition for 10 years or more, liek during the last real estate bust?
Your assumption now is 2 to 4% appreciation, which makes no sense as prices are declining on a monthly basis. After the decline is finished, prices will remain flat. And as I said during the last bust prices were flat for years.
Funny a year ago who would have thunk 2% cds would be an outrageous high rate tthat other banks would complain about.
Ally Bank advertised 6-month CDs at 2.13 percent as of May 18, compared with a national average of 0.99 percent, while the lender’s 1-year and 2-year CDs offer among the highest rates in the nation, Yingling said in his letter.
“This aggressive deposit strategy is particularly egregious when it is used by a troubled bank in which the government holds a controlling interest,” Yingling said. The U.S. Treasury owns 35 percent of GMAC, while Cerberus Capital Management LP holds 22 percent and General Motors has 9.9 percent, GMAC said on May 29.
Thanks JB. I think fraud is a strong word for the exclusion of his wife’s bankruptcy filings. The article you linked was reasonable though.
I don’t think either the initial Andrews piece or the follow up are falling prey to the poor me and awful mean banks mentality either. He left out his wife’s information for whatever reason but his piece made it clear that both he and her willfully ignored their own reality.
#168 waiting: The higher interest rates go, the lower your purchase price. And that in the end is most important.
Pre-bubble NJ was at 4x income. so 150K would get you a 400K house. In good towns in BC even in 2000 400 was not a mansion but it was above a run down cape on the wrong side of the tracks by a good margin. BTW only the most expensive towns such as J-Lows Old Brookvile have an average income of 150K.
skep-tic says:
June 1, 2009 at 2:22 pm
Not sure what others think, but I think $100-150k is upper middle class. On this income you should be able to afford a $300-450k house. Pre-2002, this would put you in range for just about all capes, ranches and splits in many good towns. I think we are heading back to this because nothing else is sustainable. It just takes time to unravel because RE is so illiquid.
Speaking of yesterday’s open houses, Weichert in addition to their for sale/open house signs now have signs on front lawns marketing the 8k tax credit for first time buyers.
John (195)-
Welcome to the new liberal/fascist regime. Can’t wait to see what the gubmint does with Chrysler and GM.
(184 James)
Northern NJ is a real tight area, typically the family still lives close by and nothing is ever really far to get too. Great food, close to NYC, entertainment almost everywhere you look, certain type of people you are used to etc…
Most of my family is from Passaic Cty, and I looking to move out to Morris Cty, you can find a decent buy with lower prop taxes.
I got my eye on a split on .7 acre with 6500 in taxes, very tempting.
#198 John: We agree yet again. I knew somewhere inside that old Bronx boy was still lurking.
since 1987 Homes have only gained about 4.1% a year since then.
John 4.1% is an impressive return, especially during those years when inflation was 11%.
Well I like it in one way, we needed to force the nancy boys out of 5% cds. Unrealistic high FDIC insured CDs of 2008 increased the troubles in the bond market. Let them have 1% or run with the big dogs.
Clotpoll says:
June 1, 2009 at 2:34 pm
John (195)-
Welcome to the new liberal/fascist regime. Can’t wait to see what the gubmint does with Chrysler and GM.
3b (199)-
It is especially hilarious to encounter agents using the 8K tax credit to pump up buyers who are not in the entry-level segment.
In my area, what the hell can you say to somebody about an 8K credit to buy a 400K+ POS that’s depreciating at the rate of 1 to 1.5% a month?
Answer: not much.
hooray for USAA
from a recent news letter
Dear “Kettle1″,
It has been a tough time for the financial services industry, but USAA was profitable in 2008 and continues to be in 2009. We did not take a cent of government bailout money. In fact, we returned $857 million to our members last year.*
BTW one thing may hurt the collaspe of home prices. A few Wall Street friends have told me they got nailed in their bonus and got stock instead but company did a pay rise. But guess what the stock they got in Feb 2009 is up 400% and they got a pay raise to boot. Now that is resricted stock so they can’t touch it until it vest, between 1-3 years. But those boys are sitting on priates booty and once unleashed hampton houses and upper saddle river homes can sell again.
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Annual Percentage Rate effective as of June 1, 2009 and may change without notice until you lock in your rate.
Gurus… Here are quick questions on life insurance:
1. Term vs Full life? (I prefer term, and it’s cheaper…)
2. Joint vs Individual life insurances for wife and husband (former is cheaper, but I am not sure by how much — waiting for a quote).
3. 20 year vs 30 year term?
S
#205 clot: I have always considered weichert especially obnoxious;especially their agents.
I thought the calculations was 2.5x income.
The following is available at $225,000. I don’t think if I lived here I would think I was living an upper middle class life style.
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/East-Brunswick_NJ_08816_1105465417
TERM
209.Sastry says:
June 1, 2009 at 2:43 pm
Gurus… Here are quick questions on life insurance:
1. Term vs Full life? (I prefer term, and it’s cheaper…)
2. Joint vs Individual life insurances for wife and husband (former is cheaper, but I am not sure by how much — waiting for a quote).
3. 20 year vs 30 year term?
S
S:
Term /
Single-life, not joint for term /
If you are 30 years old 30, if you are 40 then 20
Amount: Minimum s/b enough to pay off your mortgage + college for all your kids + 5 years of day care; also 7x-10x gross income
Chifi and d2b… Thanks…
S
There are wealth preservation issues that rich people use to justify universal or whole life policies. For everyone else term policies are much better. The surrender charges alone on universal/whole life policies should be enough to make one run the other way.
The investment choices are bad. Mutual funds with very high fees.
The cost that is deducted for insurance is higher and it goes up every year.
You are locked in for such a long time
The commission on whole life policies is very lucrative which is why agents give it such a hard sell.
The projections made during the sales presentation are always too optimistic. I sat through a presentation where the agent showed me how well that I would do with 12% annual returns.
Price out individual and joint. Keep in mind that the joint policy would be fine if you require the same insurance.
20 or 30 should be fine. You will start to build up assets later in life and your insurance needs will change.
Buy the term. If you think that you made a mistake you can convert that policy to whole life six months from now. You will never be able to convert your whole life/universal policy to term without paying a surrender charge.
Lurker 96
Again, the property taxes will probably be more than covered by appreciation over the long term.
You must get a monthly dividend check from your house, right? No? that so called appreciation doesnt exist until the day you close on the house. The taxes exist every single month and the tax collector will come knocking on the door as soon as you miss a payment.
3b (210)-
What else can you say about a company that uses the anniversary of 9/11 as a sales/marketing opportunity?
#216 kettle; The kid just does not get it.
#217 clot:??
I think lurker is an underwater RE agent.
The line of reasoning has a tell-tale veneer of faux earnestness that I sadly recognize.
Clot, if it wasn’t Grim’s post talking highly about “Clot’s guy”, Bob Farrell, I would have been with Weichert Financial! The misuse of 9/11 sounds sick, but I don’t know the details…
S
3b (219)-
First couple of years after 9/11, their print ads around the anniversary date made none-too-veiled reference to that event.
9-11 is nothing to anyone under a certain age. The interns last summeer thought about it the same way you and I think about pearl harbor.
Term life is best shop around as it is lower commission and agents are lazy,they won’t work too hard to get you best rate,use online quote tools, I just got 20 year life and in my case ING-Reliastar had best rate. Bad part is you usually can’t buy on line you still have to deal with agent to buy. The physical stuff is a pain when you do one million or more. Less than a million, quickie blood check and pee in a cup.
sastry:
I did a presentation on life insurance with the pros and cons of all of the types of insurance offered for my investment club. Ask Grim for my email address and I’ll shoot you a copy.
For the most part, I agree with all of the advice given here. Just make sure you shop around the term life insurance quotes. You are young so the credit rating of the insurer means a lot less as if they go under (highly unlikely with the bailout happy idiots in office) you can just start up another policy with another firm. Just try not to die at the exact time they go under, OK? There is no upfront payment with term insurance. You pay as you go. And don’t over buy unless you like to throw your money away.
Too bad you’ll never have the pleasure of getting done Louima-style by Weichert Loanshar…er, Financial.
Silera [196]
Fair enough, fraud is perhaps a bit too strong. However, the guy was all over television for a few days after that article, and now is hawking a book on the whole concept that even as a tuned in NYT financial reporter he was suckered in by evil banks. I think that is disingenious at best, flat out lying at worst.
Stu (224)-
And YOU’RE the one who flies Colgan Air???
“Just try not to die at the exact time they go under, OK?”
Grim, please send me email address of Stu when you get a chance…
S
JBJB (226)-
The NYT should fire his sorry ass. Similar situation to NYFD hiring arsonists.
Did anyone take Frank up on his advice to buy SRS at the bargain price in the 16’s? Even at 16.99 you would have made 10% already.
Frank, did your new best friend bi give you a remote port into his black box?
#222 clot: ghoulish to say the least.
I’m thinking of attending this event. Should be a regular yuk tsunami:
“The National Hard Money Conference 2009 is inviting you to become one of our
sponsors.
Real estate investors, Hard Money Lenders, Mortgage Brokers, Loan Officers and
Real Estate Agents from all over the US will be attending.
With the recent growth and changes in our business, this Conference promises to
be the largest and the best ever!
There is something for everyone at this conference, and your participation will
truly benefit you and your company!.
For more information please visit
http://biggestnationalevent.com/information/
or call us at 858-736-7788″
Bonds with CCC ratings have posted an astounding 50 percent total return over the past six months, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes. By contrast, corporate bonds with top AAA ratings were little changed and AAA-rated Treasuries are down nearly 1 percent.
Junk bonds are benefiting from a sharp rebound in risk appetite that has also lifted U.S. stocks, emerging market equities and high-yielding currencies amid signs that the global economy is finding its footing.
Cash inflows to junk or high-yield mutual funds have totaled nearly $7 billion since mid-April, according to AMG Data Services.
“I do think the high-yield rally could run a bit more, just in terms of the strong high-yield inflows we’ve been seeing,” said Jocelyn Chu, high-yield strategist for Morgan Stanley. “That’s a big technical positive for the high-yield market.”
Junk bonds overall, those rated below BBB-minus, returned 7 percent in May and have gained 25 percent year to date, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Clot (224):
“And YOU’RE the one who flies Colgan Air???”
My insurance was up to date and my insurers rating (for whatever that is worth) is still way up there.
This little factoid from Bloomberg story about the WH auto task force doesn’t give me a lot of faith in their ability to run GM and Chrysler:
“One member of the task force said he was surprised to learn that Japanese manufacturers can charge more than GM for a similar car because of their superior brand image.”
What???
Lurker,
what RE agency do you work with, you sound very “sales” like and seem to be quite hyped on housing?
Know anything about charts and stick figure men?
[229] clot
In recent years, this sort of fakery (or in Andrew’s case, willful misrepresentation) has become common at the LA Times, Boston Globe, and NYT.
So much for “Faux News.”
Stu (230)-
Yep. As Ice Cube would say, no Vaseline.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bvRc7pwnt0U
How is Liberty Mutual for insurance in general?
Sastry,
Life insurance is something you hope to never need to use. Looking on the bright side, if their service is bad, you won’t be around to complain about it.
Stu,
and life insurance shouldn’t be very high too. It can be tempting :)
S
Over the years, G.M. executives became practiced at the art of explaining their problems, attributing blame to everyone but themselves.
You know, the guys who went through a depression, then fought a world war, then put a guy on the moon must be crushed beyond belief. What was once about pride and ingenuity has become about golf club memberships and Graydon and Ellery’s status at the Haughty school. The guys from the WWII generation were hungry, competitive and up for the challenge. Now, we’ve become a nation of whining p*ssies with no patience and little drive.
Gary,
You give us too much credit.
137 Nom - Did you ever actually step foot in American Girl Place? I took my niece there 2 years back. Doll facials, manicures and $25 doll hairdos!
Lunch for the 2 of us at American Girl cafe set me back more than it would cost to have lunch at Tao or the pre-theatre dinner at Artisanal. Insane!
Gary,
The guys from the WWII generation were hungry, competitive and up for the challenge. Now, we’ve become a nation of whining p*ssies with no patience and little drive.
hunger, competitiveness and drive are still with us. The advertising corporations just figured out how to twist that hunger drive and competitiveness to eating, wanting a bigger shinier car, and a drive to collect chinese knick-knacks.
bad for you, good for them
gary,
dont worry, you are about to get experience 1 or 2 of the 3 character building opportunities in the near future
BEIJING (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner on Monday reassured the Chinese government that its huge holdings of dollar assets are safe and reaffirmed his faith in a strong U.S. currency.
“Chinese assets are very safe,” Geithner said but his answer drew loud laughter from his student audience, reflecting skepticism in China about the wisdom of a developing country accumulating a vast stockpile of foreign reserves instead of spending the money to raise living standards at home.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Geithner-tells-China-its-rb-15396905.html?.v=2
Sastry: Including everything else you are reading. I can give you a quote list so you can double check you quotes versus the internet stuff.
Be careful, don’t be bait-and-switched…..low quotes, rough underwriting, policy is rated, premium jumps. If you get a final offer that you don’t like….YOU ARE UNDER NO OBLIGATION TO ACCEPT IT. Say no, and even if you handed over a check for $500 they have to give your money back.
ALSO, DO NOT GO TO THE DOCTOR UNTIL YOU HAVE A POLICY IN FORCE (WITHIN REASON OBVIOUSLY). If they underwrite you and put you in the highest rated class, then it is their fault that they missed the nodule inside your pee-pee. If you go to the doctor first and they uncover the detritus that is your rotting interior, you lose….
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ajf0L9wTPq6Y
Even these guys want a piece of shiny.
Clot [229]
Unfortunately, this guy will probably be on the short list for the Pulitzer for this story as it attempts to placate every liberal grievance know to man.
I think I found SAS
http://www.richesamongtheruins.com/smith-trenches.htm
[244] Gator,
Yes, and I have the pictures to prove it. What a piece of marketing that place is.
GM bankruptcy/default…
this will be fun
GM, or its financing arm GMAC, is present in around 65 percent of synthetic collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), according to Standard & Poor’s, and underlies an estimated $1 trillion of default swaps.
https://www.sott.net/articles/show/112520-Credit-investors-ponder-GM-sized-hole-in-universe
Fun Charts for the day. courtesy of kettle1
1930’s unemployment Vs today
http://www.scribd.com/full/16014346?access_key=key-djdedb4h89kavcu579s
JB, Nom-
This is the first article I read regarding Edwards’ situation, I missed the interviews. I guess I’m just overly naive. Not all stories for me have to have a victim and a villain.
I read it totally different that what you’re relaying as the tone of the live interviews. If he was trying to come across as a victim in interviews, I took from the article that even though he knew better, he made poor decisions.
[244] gator,
On the plus side, however, Little Nom 1 scored her first goal in soccer. Her team got blown out, and she had their only goal. She was quite overjoyed with herself, but even better, she seemed to adopt that Lombardi attitude of “act[ing] like you have been there before” and was still p.o.’ed that her team lost.
God Bless GMAC!!! They need to do CDOs how else are they going to pay my bond interest!!!! GMAC is a too big to fail one of the 19 chosen ones. BTW they are now Ally, like they are your Ally and a friend. They are sooo nice.
[255] silera,
and what we don’t know (and won’t know) is how much he made (or avoided) by gaming the system.
Girls Soccer is a great sport and if she sticks with it through college you will not only have a daughter but a new daughter in law.
Traitor nom deplume says:
June 1, 2009 at 4:04 pm
[244] gator,
On the plus side, however, Little Nom 1 scored her first goal in soccer. Her team got blown out, and she had their only goal. She was quite overjoyed with herself, but even better, she seemed to adopt that Lombardi attitude of “act[ing] like you have been there before” and was still p.o.’ed that her team lost.
Nom 251,
you either ID’d SAS or found the book he quotes from!
[257] John,
I hear Ally and all I can think of is that GSK diet drug that makes you sh1t your pants if you aren’t careful when using it.
There is a ironic parable there. Not sure where yet.
[260] ket
That’s my point. The quotes are soooo SAS
Clot,
A little something to cheer you me and the rest of the 2Xers up:
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/06/jonathan-litt-pessimistic-on-reits.html
252 Nom - Better not admit that publicly, or no one will believe that you are cheap anymore!
Congrats to Lil Nom on the soccer goal! I used to play goalie and would hate it, in my really young years, when I’d get blamed for any loss. Of course the coach eventually explained to me that if the rest of the team just “did their f*cking job, you should never even have to touch the ball”. That was a direct quote. I think I was about 8 at the time.
Gary,
Here’s a thought: Why don’t you look at idealist.org for computer-related jobs?
They sometimes have IT stuff.
scribe,
Thank you, I appreciate it! :)
Liberty mutual gave me 425/yr for 20 years term. Online quotes seem to vary from 265 to 450. For reference, ING is at 350, Prudential is at 385.
Are the online quotes the final ones (assuming my pee is good), or there are gotchas like the online mortgage quotes.
S
I have to agree with John about Soccer. It’s a great game for women and the English.
Sastry- just FYI It’s great news to read you make all your preparations for buying your home with your wife. We sift through a lot of bad news every day, and your excitement is clear with each post and question. I’m a sap for happy endings.
You’re reminding me why I (and many others I’m sure) are still hoping to buy when we’re ready, even with all the doom and gloom news.
Congratulations!
As long as pee and blood is good no. For those quotes what is the age and amount? Other tricky thing with a 20 year policy if you are too young you will have to switch at one point. Lets say you are 35 and get a 20 year policy, if you wait till 55 they will re-quote you skyhigh, however if in your late 40’s you reqoute and you are still in good health you can get 48-68 at a good price. around 42-49 watch life insurance rates and try to re-lock.
Sastry says:
June 1, 2009 at 4:28 pm
Liberty mutual gave me 425/yr for 20 years term. Online quotes seem to vary from 265 to 450. For reference, ING is at 350, Prudential is at 385.
Are the online quotes the final ones (assuming my pee is good), or there are gotchas like the online mortgage quotes.
S
The other good thing about college female and male soccer is the dress code is the same, shorts and unshaven legs.
Escape From NJ says:
June 1, 2009 at 4:31 pm
I have to agree with John about Soccer. It’s a great game for women and the English.
John 259
Awful, sexist. I laughed out loud - But, really, awful, just awful. Bad boy.
One last thing about insurance if your parents are still alive that is important, if they are dead and if it was heart attack or cancer bad. ALso bad if alive and had cancer or heart attack. Also if a sister or brother has cancer or heart attack living or dead bad. Funny thing insurance companies have no way of knowing brother or sister health so don’t tell them.
John,
If people live long enough, sooner or later, they’re likely to get a heart condition or cancer.
????
Sastry: what John is saying is correct…treat this like an IRS audit. Do answer any question that is not specifically asked, and yes, you may want to have coverage through what is ostensibly your retirement age. However, bear this in mind. You need to decide are you buying a lottery ticket for the surviving spouse, or are you truly trying to management the risks of premature death. If it is the latter, then every day that you survive while the policy is in force is a reduction in your risk exposure. You survived to earn another day, offset by your bills. Inflation is also a factor, but is overwhelmed by the risk reduction due to survival.
In plain English - you have a $500K policy and today you are 38 years old with a couple of young kids. If 17 years from now you are 55, kids are in or close to graduating college, you have paid of most of the mortgage etc. Is it a big deal that you don’t have insurance? No. You had 17 years of earnings and savings.
Desire a lottery ticket? different story.
gary,
look at mediabistro.com
this week is Internet Week in NYC
lots of events for the tech crowd
correction: Do NOT answer any question that is not specifically asked
A NJ neighbors mother-in-law in Queens NY is 107. I asked him what medications is she on. His reply, none, she doesn’t believe in doctors. Interesting.
Interesting that medical Hormone Replacement Therapy (HRT), in addition to causing Estrogen Related Breast Cancer, is now linked to Small Cell Lung Cancer. Be interesting if they actually tracked which medications cause Cancer or cause Heart Attacks. Be interesting to know how many die from Well Care versus Sick Care.
Kettle1/254-
Just had a talk with 88 year old about the Great Depression. He mentioned that there were something like 18 million out of work versus a total work force of 45 million in the fall of 1939. His comment was the only thing that got us out of the Depression was FDR declaring war.
It’s a great game for women and the English.
Escape, how about Frank Lampard blasts a knuckler directly toward your head and then you guys can talk trash… Or better yet, why dont you get on the recieving end of a full speed head on sliding tackle from namanja vidic and see how womanly that feels…
both you and john are being rediculous.
Sliera… Thanks for the nice words. I got a lot from this blog… I hope I get educated enough here that I can answer some simpler questions myself like the gurus here do. Not unlike a chat room for computer systems geeks.
S
Chi… got it. When they come to my house to collect samples, keep the zipper open and the mouth shut!
S
John, settled with Liberty Mutual for 20 yr term. If there is a need to get something higher or longer term later on, I can probably get something new. I am 36-37, so … at 50-57, when I start chasing teenage girls, I don’t want to tempt my wife with a lottery ticket.
S
I have three kids to put through college and a stay at home wife, I have enough insurance to pay for all that but not enough where I have to check the brakes in my car.
BTW if you do want to collect, wait till they take a long car trip in winter, drill small hole between exhaust and car floor and insert small glass pipe, the small amount of fumes will take 30-40 miles to cause the driver to fall asleep, glass pipe will break on impact and leave no evidence.
[259] John
“you will not only have a daughter but a new daughter in law”
If all the guys at her college are like you, them maybe that’s a good result.
[264] gator,
” Better not admit that publicly, or no one will believe that you are cheap anymore”
Trust me, I’m still cheap. Ask the wife sometime.
Insurance:
Don’t apply to a bunch of different companies unless you have to, the life insurers pool info about people applying.
[264] gator,
She has missed some opportunities to contribute on defense and that has led to some goals against. Fact is, she has a lot of talent for soccer (everyone points that out) but she doesn’t understand conceptually how to transition or read the flow of the game. Also, she took a hard shot while in goal some weeks back and it spooked her. Wasn’t until this week that she started getting into the play rather than running around and watching it.
Funny thing is that with me, she is a very aggressive ball hawk, but in games with her peers, not so much at all.
[268] escape
I suppose that’s correct if you play nancy boy soccer.
In H.S., we played pretty much full contact soccer. I was usually on defense and getting de-cleated (or doing the de-cleating) was a regular occurence.
We were always guaranteed to get muddy and bloody. Kind of like mountain biking.
[281] veto
I think an NJRER soccer game is in order. Sounds like you aren’t afraid to slide tackle viciously or go after the ball in the air. I want you on my team.
Cboe Volatility Index 30.04 up 1.12
Dow up 221.11
why is vix up
Nom #289…
With you, your daughter can feel very secure and confident. Let me know how you make her feel that way among her peers. I will copy your notes :)
S
[293] sastry
when I figure that out, you can buy my book. ;-)
[236] kettle - I’m sorry I sound very “sales” like. I guess I am not bearish on RE. I will work on that :).
sure nom. we’ll wear our screw-ins and they can wear their shoulder pads. When game is done we’ll see who can walk off the field.
Stan: Thanks… I looked at the numbers and saw that 35 bucks a year isn’t that much of a difference - not worth shopping around, and just went with Liberty Mutual. The same agent for everything, and they take a credit card — so I can get points :)
S
500 closed up another 2.58% today that’s up 40% in 3 mos !and, more importantly we closed above the 200-day moving average for the first time in 524 calendar days. Commodity prices, crude especially, have been on an absolute tear recently …can you say green shoots
At least he didn’t try “Its a great time to buy!
Hello Mr. XXXXX,
This is Joe over at Toyota. We spoke briefly on the phone on Wednesday. I know you wanted me to call you to come and look at the new Prius when it comes in. But to tell you the truth, we have nearly 10 people who have already put down a little deposit. These people will have the first Prius’ that come in, and they will be able to come in and look at the inside and take a test drive…
That priveledge comes with the deposit… those just wondering about the car will NOT be able to sit on the inside or take test drives becasue the new Prius’ are all sold going all the way into September..
I’ll still call you when the first one comes in, but chances are the car will stay locked until the owner comes to pick it up…
Give me a call if you have any questions
[296] veto
Remember your mouth guard and red card. I would plan to add to my collection of red cards.
When I played youth hockey, I earned the dubious distinction of most-penalized player in the league.
Nom, based on your sports experience, you should bet it all and become a bull dog trial lawyer and get a few $50M judgments, instead of saving a few bucks for clients.
S
PCG,
I’ll add to the list, the email I received about: “Remember, there are distinct advantages of going with Weichert financial.”
I’d have listed a few specifics to back up such a grandiose claim (at least as simple as simple as “we use premium lube and put on nice jazz music” :) ).
Another from a realtor my wife gave the name to a while ago — we haven’t met the realtor, just a phone query about something she was selling in Edison. “I feel disappointed that you did not pick us as an agent for the house you selected. We offer superior service…” [paraphrasing].
S
plume (91)-
Count me in for any footballing.
ok…now i am confused….just got a check from the United States Treasury for $300…..funny thing is that we had to pay back to the Fed this year….am i missing something? is this another stimulus?
HELP!
plume (289)-
Don’t worry about tactical thinking. It doesn’t come until around age 11 or 12.
At 8, you want to see a good player joining the pack, chasing the ball and winning it.
Traitor nom deplume says:
June 1, 2009 at 5:34 pm
[259] John “you will not only have a daughter but a new daughter in law”
If all the guys at her college are like you, them maybe that’s a good result.
Nom: About ten years ago my wife and I were out with two of my Cornell friends. One married and the other brought along his girlfriend who we met for the first time that evening and we found out had graduated from Smith. Then my friend announces that they just got engaged. My other friend shoots back in front of everyone “3 billion women in the world and she chose you.”
chi (306)-
Nothing gnarlier than a Bard chick. They make Smithies look like Gisele.
WTF is everybody tonight? Getting smashed over the GM good news?
And where’s my fcuking company car? I own 60% of that black hole? Well, gimme a damn car.
My daughter has turned on that show about the couple who has 8 intolerable brats. In fact, I think the kids may be better-behaved than the parents.
I hate them all…and it’s only been on five minutes.
Jon & Kate Plus 8 = Compelling Argument for Forced Eugenics
Now surfing for Brady Bunch reruns…
Perhaps I’ll clean this loaded pistol…
Better be careful. Don’t want to shoot myself before Conan’s debut tonight.
Clot- switch to abc family. Princess bride…..andre the giant’s greatest role
How long until Jimmy Fallon is cancelled? That show is aweful.
Clean your gun over at his place.
[306] chifi
Smith and Mt. Holyoke: as the U.S. Air Force would say, a “Target Rich Environment.”
Gator,
Watched the replay of the FSU - OSU beatdown from yesterday.
Boy, are the FSU fans obnoxious. And that was a baseball game FSU was leading 37-3 at the time.
[303] clot
My JRHS coach was big on tackling. That is pretty much all we practiced. That and stomach crunches. We shared a locker room with the football team and they did not give us much smack about being pussies because our practices were harder.
The soccer coach should have been a fcuking marine drill instructor. I’ve known gunnies that weren’t nearly as big a prick as this guy was.
Two biggest prick coaches I ever had. That guy (soccer) and my dad (baseball).
I feel better about my GM (taxpayer) investment now…
“The 31-Year-Old in Charge of Dismantling G.M.”
http://finance.yahoo.com/family-home/article/107136/The-31-Year-Old-in-Charge-of-Dismantling-G.M.?mod=family-autos
Dear all,
NJ Coast, Shore,
How about this one: any info on history and mortgages? I compared it to the one I posted last week and this seems like a much better deal - neighborhood not as nice but only 2 blocks to the beach…
4 Bedrooms
3 Bathrooms
1,305 Est. Sq. Ft.
Listing # 20921431
$829,900
Thanks!
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