The New Jersey Home Price Index Tracker has been updated to include:
OFHEO 2009 Q1 Home Price Index
OFHEO 2009 Q1 Home Price Index (Purchase)
NJAR 2009 Q1 Median Home Price
Added historical data on the HPI to better illustrate the last bubble & crash.
(click to enlarge)
OFHEO/FHFA
Home Price Index (Including Refis) – Peaked in the first quarter of 2007 and is down 7.09% from peak
Home Price Index (Purchase Only) – Peaked in the second quarter of 2006 and is down 9.72% from peak
New Jersey Association of Realtors
NJ Median Home Price – Peaked in the third quarter of 2006 and is down 22.17% from peak
Bonus Data!
Courtesy of the New Jersey Association of Realtors:
(click to enlarge)
(click to enlarge)
So, sales are up but prices are still dropping?
Grim –
You really should use more green in your posts in keeping with the general mood.
We all fall together.
Kettle and Veto,
Research project for you guys.
The 80’s bubble was shorter in duration, but more intense. The 00’s bubble was more mild in comparison (lower peak YOY appreciation rates), but was significantly longer.
The expansion in NJ home prices during the 80’s bubble lasted for 6 years total, but the current expansion lasted much longer (9 years?).
However, what was the cumulative appreciation over those expansions?
Does the different nature of these expansions mean we can’t use the 80’s expansion and decline for precedent?
All this infoporn — I’m gonna have to clean off my keyboard. ; )
The gauntlet has been laid down.
It’s rather embarrassing that the best RE research I’ve read doesn’t come from my own trade organization, but rather from a blog host and two posters.
Kudos to Grim, vodka and veto.
2010…the year of diminishing expectations.
Grim,
challenge accepted, will put unemployment aside for a few days.
thanks clot ;)
Something else to look at..
While the 80’s expansion seems more peaked, the decline seems rather mild in comparison to the current decline (in nominal terms, not real).
The higher they go, the deeper they fall, no? Or is there some other reason why a nominal analysis simply doesn’t work over the period, and we need to look at inflation adjusted (real).
Is the 80s expansion really more “peaked” when compared to the 00s in real terms?
Gold bugs,
Check out this email I received from my gold storage of choice…
Dear BullionVault user,
Not for the first time the Financial Times says we are “nuts” – a
word which all too often follows on from “gold” in the financial
media.
I should rise above this sort of thing. What does it matter if the
FT thinks me nuts? But I find I’m irritated, both for myself and
on the collective behalf of successful gold investors. I don’t
think we deserve to be called “nuts” after our gold has for 6
years so consistently outperformed all those other serious
investment classes so diligently analysed on Wall Street and in
the City.
Gold continues to strengthen against the Dollar. Faint hopes of a
swift “V-shaped” recession are dwindling, which is hardly
surprising. Global economic activity up to 2007 was driven by rich
world consumers buying things even they couldn’t afford. In the US
alone they have since lost about $12 trillion of private wealth –
$120,000 per family. Judging by estimates published in The
Economist this should induce a demand slump of about $500 billion
per year, for 10 more years.
That means a typical family will be cutting back spending at the
rate of $5,000 per year for a decade. So our economies will stay
shrunk, threatening deflation.
To combat this governments are trying to engineer some inflation.
Deficit spending here, quantitative easing there, and zero
interest rates everywhere; with all of it geared to stimulating
more production in a world already suffering over-capacity. This
is where they step into dangerous territory.
Retail prices inflate in an overheating economy when there is a
supply shortage of consumer goods. Because demand outstrips supply
the producer has the whip hand, and he exploits it by asking more
money for his goods. But look around you today and you will see
there is no supply side shortage in the world economy. So if we do
get inflation it’s not going to be because of overheating.
Hyper-inflation, on the other hand, has little to do with supply
side shortages and overheated economies. It happens when a
currency dies. Once the realization grips savers (not consumers)
that their money is losing its purchasing power then they exit
money and look for better stores of value.
So while ‘normal’ inflation is driven by consumer-pull for goods,
hyper-inflation is driven by saver-push of money, and this
explains a big qualitative difference between inflation and hyper-
inflation.
Modest inflation through undersupplied goods has a negative
feedback because new supply pulls prices back, bringing the
economy back to equilibrium. Hyper-inflation does the opposite.
Once it starts it suffers a positive feedback by encouraging more
and more savers to dump cash. What starts as a trickle accelerates
into an unstoppable torrent of savings pouring into circulation.
The unusual problem we now have is that after using cash rescues
to protect the overcapacity in our economies we are not going to
be able to create normal, controllable, supply-shortage inflation.
It’s increasingly likely that the only style of modest price rises
which the central banks can engineer will be the trickle which
precedes a hyper-inflation.
Indeed, what caused the Financial Times to wheel out the old “gold
nuts” phraseology was the strange case of last week’s bond
markets. Bond prices – the best proxy for the future value of cash
– were falling when they should have been rising. The markets are
telling us that cash 10 years forward is becoming less valuable.
This is a hint of savers losing faith in their currency.
And why wouldn’t they? Their deposits will pay them no interest
for the foreseeable future. Inflation and tax will eat into their
savings. The economy looks mired in recession. Governments, which
are now welcoming devaluations as a trade benefit, are deep in
debt and are toying with hyper-inflationary policies like
quantitative easing. It all points to the inflationary transfer of
the government’s enormous debt into plummeting values for
depositors’ cash and investors’ bonds.
An insight – courtesy of Bill Bonner – suggests what could soon
happen. There is an $11 trillion bond mountain, which is $96,000
of issued US Dollar bonds per US family. With total federal
obligations now reaching above $63 trillion, this is the polar
icecap of contemporary finance, and it holds the bulk of the
savings of two generations, all denominated in dollars which are
frozen solid until their redemption date. If the Fed gets what it
wants, then a modest dose of inflation now will forestall a
depression. But inflation will heat that icecap and make the bond
market more jittery, and at exactly this point the Fed says it
will reverse its QE policy and sell bonds back into the market,
because this is how it plans to get cash back out of circulation
to control the inflation it has created.
Choose your poison: The trickle of excess QE cash or the trickle
of excess bond redemptions, both in a world of over-supply. It
seems all roads lead to inflation. Don’t assume it will be the
manageable kind.
Kind regards,
Paul Tustain
Director, BullionVault
grim 10
i have a few thoughts on that, i will get with veto and see where it goes
Where is Frank??
13) He’s at Corzine’s rally listening to the malarkey being spewed.
I just heard Corzine saying that they needed to take back Trenton.
Take it back from whom?
3b, 13
Fr.uck? I mean, Jared?
He’s right here. Starting at minute 40…
please, call him by his real name, Fairy-cake.
http://v.youku.com/v_show/id_XMzI3NjQwMjQ=.html
Oh BTW NOT safe for work, kids or squeamish…
Enjoy.
sl
zieba,
Canada…we couldn’t even go! June 1st the border requirements changed to mandatory passport.
Hard to party in ole Canada with USD.
Maybe next time when we pass par and they outweigh us by 30% value. Rock on printing presses. Weimar, here we come.
sl
Airbus flight plan?
RUWaiting (#?) a few threads back,
Down East/Acadia and roundabouts the coastal area.
went by a boat builder, repairer, prepper today. reports many smaller outfits are out of business “due to the dismal economy” – his words, not mine.
got an interesting view from one of the local lobster hatcheries. guy was telling us about how much of the Canadian fisheries support got shellacked as their credit stream was primarily from Iceland and we all know what happened there.
Bottom fell out of the fish markets here and ruined scores of fishermen/families.
…Oh, hey. What recession?? [sarcasm – for the asshole fairy-cake among us]
sl
CHECK THIS OUT!
I just nailed one of my unemployment models. I have backcast one of my candidate models 59 years and the model is on average within 2% of the real U3 value. the really cool thing is that i have figured out how to take the raw CPS non adjusted numbers and produce seasonally adjusted U3 within 2%!!!!!!!!!!!
sorry have to share. take a look
http://www.scribd.com/document_downloads/16059887?extension=pdf&secret_password=
This is a site listing real estate investment job vacancies. It has a national scope.
Look at where the jobs are concentrated.
http://www.selectleaders.com/candidate/searchjob.do;jsessionid=F92773313BB96E993522290C7929AB41
Click the yellow “search jobs” button.
Maybe this is why Corzine thinks RE taxes in NJ are no big deal.
“Published reports say Corzine spent $3.26 million for his new place in Hoboken and paid $7,300 in taxes this year. The Star-Ledger says the building is assessed at $822,400 for tax purposes.
http://blogs.app.com/politicspatrol/2009/06/02/report-corzine-pays-7300-in-taxes-for-his-pad/
Please tell me this sleaze ball will be gone soon.
Median sale price in Hunterdown county only down 1% YoY?? WTF? Sales are down near 35% though, I guess that county has a lot of people who can afford to ‘hang on’ without lowering prices.
syncmaster says:
Median sale price in Hunterdown county only down 1% YoY?? WTF?
I’ve been watching it for 3 years now…overall, same old $hit on the market for the same old price. Very little is moving.
I hate Corzine more than most republicans here, but that APP article is entirely deceiving. It says he paid $7,300 SO FAR this year. Multiplying Hoboken’s tax rate for last year by his assessment yields an annual property tax of $35,305. And this is last year’s number. JBJB, you should be ashamed of yourself for not noticing the error or worse, it appears you purposely left out the SO FAR.
Have no fear though, the loss of property tax rebates will more than likely end his tenure, for which we can all be grateful.
Of course Christie will probably reinstate the property tax rebate (campaign promise coming fer sure) by selling the clothes off of our childrens’ backs.
#23 – Median sales price in Hunterdon in Q1 2007 was $454,900.
So while it was only down 1.1% YOY, the median is down 6.3% from “peak”.
So what about Cumberland? Best performance of any county in the state. Who cares about Hudson, Cumberland is PRIME.
Where is Cumberland?
APP: “Published reports say Corzine spent $3.26 million for his new place in Hoboken and has paid $7,300 in taxes so far this year.”
JBJB: “Published reports say Corzine spent $3.26 million for his new place in Hoboken and paid $7,300 in taxes this year.”
JBJB…a job awaits you at Fox News. You qualified with flying colors!
Corzine has the use of the Governor’s Mansion Drumthwacket fully paid for on the taxpayer dime so why is he living in Hoboken?
Perhaps the Craig’s list personals don’t make their way down to Princeton?
Check this place out..
http://www.drumthwacket.org/
Corzine has more money than god. He can waste it however he pleases. Wait till you see how much this upcoming governors general election loss will cost him. Probably a lot less than if he purchased a Drumthwacket.
Clot #6,
do you inform other realtors to visit this blog, or do you view this site as a competitive advantage for your own company? Just curious.
I did notice that, but assumed the $7300 was through June 1st, 2009, which still seems very, very low for a property assessed at 3.26 million. Either way, he is a scumbag that doesn’t deserve any benefit of the doubt.
Clot, Do you have a branch in UK?:)
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/index.html
n estate agent went on a rampage in a luxury home his firm was selling while the owner was abroad, a court has heard.
After a heavy drinking session, Joseph Young, 23, collected the keys to the £650,000 house from his office so he and two friends could continue to party.
Once inside, the trainee estate agent and friend Bradley Conway, 23, ripped out door frames and smashed chairs, statues and picture frames. They poured Tipp-Ex fluid over duvets and damaged a vintage car in the garage.
Conway was acting ‘like a raging bull’, smashing windows and hammering keys on the piano in the house, Guildford Crown Court heard.
He then stole the keys to the owner’s Skoda and took it for a drunken joyride with Young. They smashed the car into a tree near the four-bedroom property, writing it off.
x-underwriter says:
June 2, 2009 at 10:20 pm
“syncmaster says:
Median sale price in Hunterdown county only down 1% YoY?? WTF?
I’ve been watching it for 3 years now…overall, same old $hit on the market for the same old price. Very little is moving.”
Delurking – too true. I believe we have been looking at similar properties/areas.
Same houses have been on the mls for YEARS. The only variety is the occasional change in pictures.
cartoon of the day
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_9ZzZquaXrR8/SiXMaSZxAUI/AAAAAAAAD0Y/RqIKrQv8DYA/s1600-h/CartoonUSCustomer.gif
Commercial Real Estate — the Economy’s Anvil
Commercial real estate may soon bulldoze the green shoots. A coming wave of defaults on loans to developers of condominiums, office buildings and malls could do significant damage to the already deflating economy. That was the overwhelming concern expressed at a public hearing of the Congressional Oversight Panel (COP) on Thursday that focused on corporate and commercial real estate lending. The COP was set up last fall as part of legislation that gave the Treasury Department permission to spend $700 billion to rescue the nation’s ailing financial system.
http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1901718,00.html
clot,
enjoy
10 reasons Terminators destroy ‘Twitter-brains’
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/story/print?guid=D239B4F7-3F26-4B56-B26C-5D8FB54361A7
Tax receipts in the toilet.
US witholding..
http://www.nowandfutures.com/images/withholding_indiv.png
Us Corp…
http://www.nowandfutures.com/images/withholding_corp.png
Withholding tax receipts in the toilet.
http://www.nowandfutures.com/images/withholding_indiv.png
This should be entertaining:
http://thecartelmovie.com/
It presents something of a conundrum. How has the richest and most innovative society on earth suddenly lost the ability to teach its children at a level that other modern countries consider “basic”?
If the problem is that we’re not spending enough on schools, which many people believe, it’s instructive to study the U.S. state that spends more than any other per student: New Jersey
With spending as high as $483,000 per classroom (confirmed by NJ Education Department records), New Jersey students fare only slightly better than the national average in reading and math, and rank 37th in average SAT scores. And not even half of NJ’s high school freshmen, despite the state’s enormous “investment,” are academically ready for college four years later.
Timmay is a bag holder.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Geithner-faces-sluggish-apf-15419661.html?.v=3
Dammit. I’m so pissed off today, I can’t see straight. HOW IN THE HELL ARE THE DAMN COMMIES GOING TO BUY PART OF AN AMERICAN COMPANY??
The damn commies have a centralized economy and they’re not supposed to be pulling a damn stunt like this. Wasn’t it only a few years ago that congress blocked these damn commies from taking over Unocal on the basis of national security? WELL, DAMMIT, WE USE THE DAMN HUMMERS FOR MILITARY PURPOSES. HOW IN THE HELL IS THIS NOT A THREAT TO OUR DAMN SECURITY??
This needs to be stopped. What did you say?? They got a bunch of money?? Tell you what, I’ll lend a phone so you can call someone who gives a shlt about that, because I DON’T GIVE A TINKER’S DAMN ABOUT HOW MUCH MONEY THEY HAVE.
Here’s an ultimatum you commies, keep your damn hands off of Hummer and we’ll think about giving you your stinking money back after we’re done with it.
tard101:
ROFL! You are the best clown I’ve ever seen!
ket, 34
love it!
more green shoots
U.S. business bankruptcies rise 40 percent in May
“There were 7,514 commercial bankruptcy filings for the month, compared with just 5,354 during the same month a year ago, according to Automated Access to Court Electronic Records (AACER), a database of U.S. bankruptcy statistics used by attorneys and lenders.
http://www.reuters.com/article/GCA-Economy/idUSTRE5516FX20090602
re #41 Tard
Nearly every cellphone by Motorola, Nokia, Sony, Ericsson,Palm and iPhone including computers by Dell, Mac and others including gaming consoles Xbox,Playstaion and Wii is made in Vietnam.
Are you going to rage now about that?
grim #45 in Mod
’Black Swan’ Hedge Fund Bets On Hyperinflation
“Universa Investments, a hedge fund firm affiliated with famed “Black Swan” economist Nassim Nicholas Taleb, is launching a new fund betting that global economic stimulus packages will lead to hyperinflation.
According to The Wall Street Journal, the new Black Swan fund offers investors big returns if inflation and interest rates soar as they did in the 1970s. The fund will invest in commodity options, as well as commodity-linked stock options, including oil drillers and gold miners. Spitznagel’s fund will also short Treasury bonds.
But investing with Universa isn’t easy, or cheap: The firm has a $25 million minimum investment requirement, the Journal reports, and rarely accepts investments of less than $100 million.”
http://www.finalternatives.com/node/8082
How come you never have anything positive to post ever? Home purchases were up today, but did you post anything about that? Nooo.
You’re a commie plant waging psych warfare. That’s low-real low.
kettle1 says:
June 2, 2009 at 11:59 pm
more green shoots
U.S. business bankruptcies rise 40 percent in May
“There were 7,514 commercial bankruptcy filings for the month, compared with just 5,354 during the same month a year ago, according to Automated Access to Court Electronic Records (AACER), a database of U.S. bankruptcy statistics used by attorneys and lenders.
http://www.reuters.com/article/GCA-Economy/idUSTRE5516FX20090602
grim #26,
6% off peak still isn’t much of a correction.
Like x-u and lisoosh, I have also been watching Hunterdon; I am disappointed prices haven’t come down more. Hunterdon is nicer than where I live now and my commute to work wouldn’t change much at all.
reinvestor #40,
I’m so pissed off today, I can’t see straight.
Hopefully, you’re driving.
From the APP:
Hovnanian reports 11th loss as home prices decline
Red Bank-based Hovnanian Enterprises Inc., New Jersey’s largest homebuilder, reported its 11th straight quarterly loss as rising unemployment and falling home prices sidelined potential buyers.
The net loss for the three months ended April 30 narrowed to $118.6 million, or $1.50 a share, from $340.7 million, or $5.29, a year ago. The builder was projected to have a loss of $1.32 a share, according to the median forecast of six analysts in a Bloomberg survey.
Homebuilders are competing for sales against a record number of foreclosed houses in the worst housing market since the 1930s. New home sales in the U.S. fell 34 percent in April compared with a year earlier, the Commerce Department said May 28. The median price dropped 15 percent, while foreclosure filings rose to a record 342,038.
“The economy recovers first, then the housing market — and then the homebuilders,” said Vicki Bryan, a Corrigan, Texas-based senior high-yield bond analyst for Gimme Credit LLC.
“It’s really a race against the clock” for Hovnanian, she said. “How long can they stay in the poker game?”
Hovnanian’s market value has plummeted 96 percent from its peak on July 20, 2005, starting with a slide in the number of new U.S. home sales and extending through the first two months of this year as unemployment rose.
From the Record:
Opening condo bids in Jersey City slashed
The developer of the Beacon, a Jersey City hospital-to-condo conversion, plans to auction 25 units later this month, with opening bids of less than half of the original asking prices.
The units, originally priced from $380,000 to $700,000, will have suggested opening bids of $150,000 to $250,000 at the June 27 auction, developer Metrovest Equities of New York said Tuesday.
George Filopoulos, Metrovest’s president, said the auction is not a sign of distress, but a way to quickly complete sales of the first 315 units of the project, which he said is 80 percent sold. Then, he said, the company can focus its attention on the next phase. Metrovest specializes in redevelopment and urban renewal projects in New York and New Jersey.
“The auction will cut months off of our current marketing program,” Filopoulos said.
Auctions have become more popular among builders recently, as home sales sank in the face of tighter mortgage standards and the highest unemployment in a generation.
According to the National Auctioneers Association, revenue from auctions of residential real estate climbed 47 percent from 2003 to 2007. This covers only voluntary auctions, not sheriff’s sales of properties lost to foreclosure.
sean (41)-
Timmay does probably the dumbest thing an underwater homeowner can do. Now he’ll magnify his loss over time and also find his home depreciating through wear and tear. What does that say about his job performance?
The first loss is your best loss, idiot.
#54 – Not at all confidence inspiring.
I really hope the Treasury’s position isn’t being driven by personal sentiment/impact.
Trillions of taxpayer dollars wasted, because Timmay didn’t want to lose a couple bucks selling his place.
#55 grim,
He’s just holding out to get what the house is worth. ha ha ha
Maybe re101 is Timmay?
I mean, cmon, yea, sure, he shouldn’t be expected to just GIVE his house away. That would be crazy.
yeah, and I hope you’re crossing the damn street. There’ll be one less commie/terrorist in this world.
syncmaster says:
June 3, 2009 at 12:24 am
reinvestor #40,
I’m so pissed off today, I can’t see straight.
Hopefully, you’re driving.
Everybody is talking about the decline in home price. But it’s hard to get a decent price for a decent house.
Ahem, I can’t help but to notice that you’ve been mentioning my name fairly frequently in posts you’ve made here as of late. These seem fall into a pattern of a general attack on my person and I’m starting to take umbrage at this. I’m going to have to ask you to cease and desist in this sort of behavior.
Now, I’ve tried to be nice about this to get your prompt compliance with this request. Please note that people only get nice requests once. Accordingly, you should take advantage of this opportunity so as to avoid being placed on my, ahem, excrement list.
Sincerely,
R.E. Investor
safeashouses says:
June 3, 2009 at 6:36 am
#55 grim,
He’s just holding out to get what the house is worth. ha ha ha
Maybe re101 is Timmay?
“The first loss is your best loss, idiot.”
Clot,
But who are you talking about? He believes in doubling/tripling down.
Green shoots?
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_4jIlyJ10uJU/Seh1p4OErxI/AAAAAAAACME/pNkq4YC8I7E/s1600-h/showimage.asp.gif
#60 re101
Don’t be hating.
I just want to get more words of wisdom from you.
Ritholtz
How Congress Betrayed Investors to Help Banks
This morning’s outrage comes to us via the WSJ, and it discusses how our elected representatives rolled over for their overlords, the bankers, in grateful genuflection to their largesse: Huge heaps of lobbying monies:
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/06/how-congress-betrayed-investors/
Our Government at work. Maybe people will wake up and realize that the D and R following your reps name should be switched to a $.
“down 9.72% from peak”
Find me another investment that’s only down 9.72 from 2006 and it gives you a place to barbecue.
Where’s the recession??
HEHE
if the average joe were to acknowledge that their so called representatives are bought and paid for by corporate interests, they would also have to acknowledge that they are broke, unlikely to ever see the standard of living they experienced for the last 10 years again, and that knowing more about american idol contestants then your representatives and their track records is a path to indentured servitude.
The “happiness” or the illusuion there of for most peopl eis dependent n believeing that the system worls in a certain manner regardless of how true that may or may not be.
Good luck getting 300 million people to acknowledge that 30 inch rims and a 40 inch plasma’s dont provide happiness, just a very brief dopamine rush when you first display the purchase to your neighbors.
“Dammit. I’m so pissed off today, I can’t see straight. HOW IN THE HELL ARE THE DAMN COMMIES GOING TO BUY PART OF AN AMERICAN COMPANY??”
50.5,
Worse than this, Commie students are laughing at our Treas Sec.. Is this what we have become, the laughingstock? Very sad and embarrassing. I’m confused, very little coverage by US media. Does your boy O have the media in a bag?
Commie students know our government is full of cr*p more than it’s own citizens. Says something about the media in this country. Excellent job! Keep that electorate informed. Kudos!!!
“and it gives you a place to barbecue.”
Frank [65],
Just busted a gut. Great entertainment.
Can you barbeque in a depreciating condo in Boken?
reinvestor101 says:
June 3, 2009 at 12:14 am
How come you never have anything positive to post ever? Home purchases were up today, but did you post anything about that? Nooo.
You’re a commie plant waging psych warfare. That’s low-real low.
re: you state the obvious……
grim says:
June 3, 2009 at 5:50 am
From the APP: Hovnanian reports 11th loss as home prices decline
Bost: I forgot to mention that I drove past HQ and my heart sank….the fountain was…….ON
Chi [71],
Six more monnths.
Re 101
the KGB worked extensively on my propaganda training. I am glad that someone can appreciate the results!
ChiFi, a few weeks ago I asked you about SUNAMERICA bonds, you were pretty negative and I was very much on fence. You should have pushed me over they are up 300% in a few weeks.
lisoosh says:
Same houses have been on the mls for YEARS. The only variety is the occasional change in pictures.
I’ve been looking in Hunterdon for up to $400k. In that range, nothing has changed. As Clotpoll previously mentioned, the market for $500,000 and up has completely collapsed. There’s a lot of really nice inventory out there around $600,000 which probably would have sold for at least $800k two years ago. Since nothing is selling, it’s not showing up in the numbers…yet. Sooner or later, these places have to move and it will be for much less than they were at the peak.
I think people have overealistic expectations is the real problem ala lifestyles of the rich and famous wannabees. Guy I know for 7 years was complaining to me last night he wants his wife to go back to work as on 200K a year he can’t make it on 200K. Guy has three kids and a stay at home wife, but get this he bought his house in 1999 for 250K, has a 20 year old station car and a 2007 minivan he bought cash a bonus. Guy has all three kids in public school and I have been to his house and he has the same dumpy furniture from college and the kitchen and baths are all original. I then said am I missing something, he then said you know dinners, take out, baby sitters, vacations, plays, etc. I can’t do it all anymore like when we had no kids and my wife was pulling in 100K working. BOO HOO> This is the problem with america
Frank says:
June 3, 2009 at 8:29 am
“down 9.72% from peak”
Find me another investment that’s only down 9.72 from 2006 and it gives you a place to barbecue.
Where’s the recession??
And if you only put down 10%, you’re personally down 100%.
dink (31)-
I tell other agents about this site all the time.
They are either too stupid, too in denial- or both- to actually follow it, though.
I’m proud that my agents do lurk here…
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/Clinton-Twp_NJ_08809_1103150331
This house is supposed to be a castle.
#75 x-u
That’s because its “different here in Hunterdon”…
Be patient. I have been following this market for a long time and the prices are getting more realistic. 400K now gets you a POS cape where it used to get you a teardown.
I think we may see less fantasy pricing when the leaves start to turn. That’s when I’ll start looking in earnest again.
(Back to lurkerdom)
(Hey Clot – Enjoyed your post on the protective qualities of Duvel!)
79) A 4 car garage and only 3 bedrooms! If they’re going to build a castle, at least put 5 bedrooms in it.
lis, willwork, x-under,
…same for us regarding looking in Hunterdon.
Now we are considering buying a vacation/retirement place elsewhere -Maine, Delaware, South — first (and rent in NJ instead.
The tax climate in NJ and the USA is becoming the breaking point for us.
sl
sync (50)-
I think the time is upon us when strong buyers can get into Hunterdon, make some seriously low offers and get things done.
I can assure you that the job loss is catastrophic, and many of the sellers cannot hold out much longer.
I’m a Hunterdon resident, and I should know. I’ve been seeing probably 1-3 people I either know or am acquainted with lose 6-figure jobs on a weekly basis since last Fall.
hey it’s sooooo different here in philly too:
Fire-sale prices for luxury Center City condos:
http://tinyurl.com/ohtrsf
#80 willwork4beer
I found James Boag’s Premium lager at Wegmans.
The real estate market’s troubles are hitting close to home for Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner.
Real estate agents say Geithner recently rented out his Westchester County home after it didn’t sell _ even though he reduced the price to less than he paid.
Geithner put the five-bedroom Tudor near Larchmont on the market for $1.635 million in February.
Agents Scott Stiefvater of Stiefvater Real Estate and Debbie Meiliken of Keller Williams Realty say the house was rented for $7,500 a month on May 21, a few weeks after the asking price was dropped to $1.575 million.
Neither was directly involved in the rental. Treasury Department representatives didn’t immediately return calls.
willwork4beer says:
I think we may see less fantasy pricing when the leaves start to turn.
I agree. I was gung-ho on buying something late this summer but a change in job situation and a baby on the way changes things. My wife’s taking next school year off from her teacher job to be home with the kid. The conventional wisdom would say that we should buy something now to prepare for that but I’m now thinkin I should hold off till at least Christmas. The cash flow shock from the temporary loss of my wife’s income and double my housing pmt isn’t something I’m looking forward to.
I keep finding reasons to be patient with the housing market but over 3 years now is getting really old considering all the rent I’ve pi$$ed away in the meantime.
renter (79)-
It’s also right next to 78 and is in foreclosure.
It could be the most suck-ass house in the county, too.
OMG 30 year treasury at 4.25%, where is inflation hiding.
“The cash flow shock from the temporary loss of my wife’s income”
“temporary” Ha Ha. You really are a new parent.
#85 Safe
Hey, that’s great. I’ve been noticing more Aussie beer everywhere I go these days. Lots of styles by Coopers, for instance.
I’ve been on the Belgians, particularly Duvel. Clot was right – it produces an aura that protects you from inane BBQ chatter like, “now’s a great time to buy…”
84
“Luxury” is used loosely on those. I know what went into them.
Clot-
If someone (not me) were to lock today, good FICO, 20%,where are rates?
It’s amazing how stupid some people are. A coworker is in the process of selling / buying. I asked him if he locked yet since rates are jumping. I got the blank stare
One of my friends promised her husband she would go back to work and did. She then proceed to spend her days crying over her baby picture covered desk. She lasted 6 months and quit.
proceeded
As Wichita multibillionaire Phil Ruffin says: “Retirement? Hell no. You just can’t do it. Why would you ever retire when you’re living large and having this much fun?” Considering that the 74-year-old real estate developer and good friend of Donald Trump just married a 26-year-old former Miss Ukraine, he may have a point.
@91 I’ve been on Belgians for about a year, almost exclusively. They make everything else seem like swill.
Check out Kwak and Triple Karmeliet from Bosteels Brewery.
Or the cheaper domestic route: Jolly Pumpkin Brewery in Michigan. They have nice line of Flemish style too.
I was a bit delayed on getting the new DM album; finally picked it up this past week but I must say I’m not impressed at a first listen.. Dunno, perhaps it has to grow on me; but it seems very monotone and bland..
I also picked up the new Green Day & Marilyn Manson albums at the same time, and seem to like those better after the first listen…
-Richie
U.S. Private sector axes 532,000 jobs in May
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090603/bs_nm/us_usa_economy_employment_adp
My favorite moment was when I was married two years and my wife was pregant and we just finished dinner at my in-laws house and were having dessert and my father-in-law found out that my wife was going back to work and we would have to shove his new grandkid in daycare even though my wife wanted to stay home cause I did not make enough money. Well the man did not say a word just gave me an icy cold stare pushed back his half eaten dessert and went upstairs, around ten minutes later my mother-in-law without mentioning what happened said it is getting late so you should be getting home.
Funny part is my brother-in-law, his son could not afford to have his wife stay home and he has her working with two kids six months and 3 years. I found out rules for sons and son-in-laws are different.
Enjoy the ride, your wife will swear on a stack of bibles she is a career women and wants to work, but 50/50 when that day comes to hand off a 12 week old baby to strangers and go back to work they will last too long at work. Even when they do you sometimes become the bad guy.
renter says:
June 3, 2009 at 10:06 am
One of my friends promised her husband she would go back to work and did. She then proceed to spend her days crying over her baby picture covered desk. She lasted 6 months and quit.
Ref 84. LOL. Enough dumb quotes in that article to last a week.
sl – my recent drive down to Florida through the heat and humidity convinced me that South isn’t for me. North is nicer but the cold would annoy me.
So it’s either suck it up here in the desperate hope that it finally collapses (affordable and convenient flights to family countries are actually a fairly big issue for us and this is the best place for that) or REALLY take a leap and move out West.
We are really thinking hard about our options though.
Our president is in Saudi Arabia today and will give “a major speech intended to repair a damaged US image” from the city of Mecca.
http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/06/03/obama.mideast.trip/
Grim,
Your discovery of the OFHEO NJ HPI data is a ground breaking gem. By reaching back another 6 years further than CS NY Metro, the data opens a trove of possibilities, and allows for an equal comparison of the 80s bubble run up and crash to the one we are experiencing today.
The 6 years vs 9 years run up does not cause comparison problems in my opinion and you are correct in thinking the comparison has to be inflation adjusted since you simply cannot compare the nominal returns of the 80s with 10% inflation to the nominal return rates of 2% inflation of today. Thankfully kettle is a mathematical genious and his bullet proof conversion models will have those converted to real terms in his sleep.
Challenge accepted. We have cleared our calendars for the week and are all over this like white on rice. stay tuned.
Clot – I’m sure it is possible to push through a deal now, probably a huge headache too.
I don’t really feel that there is any capitulation yet though -people are suffering but still hopeful. When I see much more realistic listing prices, and that hope dissolve that would indicate to me a much better buying environment.
beer – Yum. Belgian.
Still taking my trip down memory lane with the Scottish I have been picking up at the Supersaver.
renter – I loved going back to work and getting away from the kids.
Then again, they’re not babies anymore.
RE: “I keep finding reasons to be patient with the housing market but over 3 years now is getting really old considering all the rent I’ve pi$$ed away in the meantime.”
Everything is perspective. Feel lucky you’re not writing:
“over 3 years now is getting really old considering that between realtor fees, negative equity, and repairs, we lost $175,000 getting out of that small cape in the meantime.”
John says:
“temporary” Ha Ha. You really are a new parent.
I know, it’s going to be really sticky when that happens. I don’t see any other way if we stay in NJ though and join the $1,000/mo club (taxes). If I can find a job outside of here in a cheaper area it’s a possibility. I’ve been considering relocating to the Atlanta area but the job market is flat dead there right now.
Clot #83,
I am counting on 2010 not being too late, in fact I am confident it won’t be. What do you think? BTW why are taxes in High Bridge so high?
x-u #107,
I’ve thought about relocating too, the Lehigh Valley, Dallas, Atlanta, Charlotte… but the thing is, I like NJ! Except for the high cost of living (which at some point could very well become the deal breaker), this is a pretty good place to live IMHO :-)
[108] x
Maybe this will help:
“NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — Local politicians were fuming after NCR Corp., Dayton, Ohio’s only Fortune 500 company, decided to relocate south taking with it 1,200 badly needed jobs to Georgia.
NCR, which makes ATMs, cash registers and retail self-checkout machines, announced plans Tuesday to move its headquarters to Georgia and create a new manufacturing facility there, leaving a community where it had operated for over 100 years.”
I visited a colleague yesterday that was helping a client relocate his company from NJ to Florida. I have helped companies relocating from NJ to SC, NC and GA.
I have yet to work on anything bringing a business into NJ.
Kettle1 (66):
“if the average joe were to acknowledge that their so called representatives are bought and paid for by corporate interests, they would also have to acknowledge that they are broke, unlikely to ever see the standard of living they experienced for the last 10 years again, and that knowing more about american idol contestants then your representatives and their track records is a path to indentured servitude.”
Well said!
[84]
When the Philly condo-building boom started, we decided that we were gonna sell. Fact that wife was able to get new job in NJ at that time simply set into motion what we already planned on doing.
We did not foresee the total collapse, but prices had already peaked and we wanted to be out before all those condos came on-line.
Turns out we were quite lucky.
My moment of reckoning came across from my VP at lunch. I was pregnant. He casually mentioned that if a woman was to quit work that she would be leaving so much money on the table year after year and what about your profit sharing etc. etc. He was talking about this “hypothetically” . I realized I wasn’t coming back during this conversation.
Funny thing is that his wife had never worked outside the home in their 20 some years of marriage.
Why are the shoots so RED today?
Frank (65): “and it gives you a place to barbecue.”
Especially during either the impending fire sale or man-made lightning strike.
[87] x
If your rent is lower than your PITI would be, you haven’t lost anything, so consider that a blessing in disguise.
Most Managing Directors/SVPs wifes don’t work. Kinda hard to say I can’t work late, go on a business trip, go to client dinner as it is my turn to pick up the kids.
renter says:
June 3, 2009 at 10:47 am
My moment of reckoning came across from my VP at lunch. I was pregnant. He casually mentioned that if a woman was to quit work that she would be leaving so much money on the table year after year and what about your profit sharing etc. etc. He was talking about this “hypothetically” . I realized I wasn’t coming back during this conversation.
Funny thing is that his wife had never worked outside the home in their 20 some years of marriage.
#95 SM
Thanks for tips. I’ve seen Bosteels out there but I have a tendency to stick with the Trappists if I’m going Tripel. I’ll give it a try.
Lisoosh – I’m still looking for that Orkney Dark Island for you. I’ll give you a shout if I ever find it. :)
@112. timing is everything and a little foresight helped in your case too.
prices and mentality are finally starting to shift in philly. i always felt we were about 6 months behind national trends and that seems to be pretty accurate. the worst is yet to come and i’m happily sitting on the sidelines watching it unfold – waiting to pounce.
who knows, maybe i’ll be able to afford delancy st next year ;-)
Household spending cutbacks: What’s the first to go?
http://blogs.reuters.com/macroscope/2009/06/02/household-spending-cutbacks-whats-the-first-to-go/
“Agents Scott Stiefvater of Stiefvater Real Estate and Debbie Meiliken of Keller Williams Realty say the [Geithner] house was rented for $7,500 a month on May 21, a few weeks after the asking price was dropped to $1.575 million.”
I wonder if he has a mortgage on it, and if that mortgage contains a clause about being used as his primary residence?
Further, I wonder if he is now in breach of his loan agreement, whether the bank would dare to accelerate the mortgage? That would take some stones.
syncmaster Comrade nom deplume,
yeah, jersey can seem like it sucks until you go to some other places and then you get a new appreciation for it. My main complaint is the cost of living and I’m no fan of winter weather.
You have to wonder what the picture here will be in 10 years due to the business climate though.
It’s funny how many job ads in Atlanta say “local condidates only”. The city is mostly northern transplants and I guess they get bombarded with other relo hopefuls.
[119] SM
Delancy Street. Nice! I lived on Naudain so I know the street well (at least in the Rittenhouse area).
“I wonder if he has a mortgage on it”
Nom [121],
2 mortgages, total, $1.25M, 27K in prop taxes.
beer (91)-
I’m pretty sure that beer like Duvel is why you see soccer riots in Europe.
RE #117 –
rep (92)-
Jumbo or conventional? Jumbo, maybe 5.5, 5.6%, with perfect credit.
Conventional, maybe 5-ish to 5.25%…again, perfect credit.
[122] x
I don’t foresee any improvement in NJ biz climate because, like GM, it has a lot of “legacy costs” relative to its competition.
As for QOL, over the past 15 years, I have lived in MA, NH, MD, VA, PA and now here. I find nothing to commend NJ over any of those other states except proximity to Manhattan.
I know some folks love NJ but I cannot see why.
x-u #122,
Winter weather, that had totally slipped my mind. It is June, after all :)
John (98)-
Thanks for that missive from the year 1954. Please post here when you’ve fired up your DeLorean for the trip back to 2009.
[124] BC,
Well, I am not an expert on mortgages, but I seem to recall that when you take out a mortgage on a primary residence, you convenant that you are using it as such, and if you rent it out, you are in breach of that covenant.
Anyone in real estate want to cover that? I’m not being snarky; I truly don’t know.
Comrade nom deplume #128,
I almost never go to the City and still like living here. I can’t explain it.
127 Clot
Thanks
veto (102)-
I smell the inception of the Veto-Vodka index.
Has a nice ring to it.
“Our president is in Saudi Arabia today and will give “a major speech intended to repair a damaged US image” from the city of Mecca.”
Qwerty, what do you propose? Perhaps invade some random calm Muslim country to bring about peace? Perhaps Yemen or the Sudan maybe?
rep (133)-
If you’re shy of 20% DP or have FICOs under 740, expect a jumbo to approach & maybe even top 8%. The add-ons are brutal.
beer #118 – Aw, shucks, thanks. You should try some yourself too.
Clot #125 – After spending a sunny afternoon in Eindhoven town square sipping cassis sweetened Trappist (a la the Dutch) the LAST thing I would have wanted would have been to riot.
More like take a long nap.
Stu (135)-
Why waste people invading Yemen?
3-4 random daisy cutters can produce the desired effect.
[sarcasm switch stuck]
Nom (131): “I seem to recall that when you take out a mortgage on a primary residence, you convenant that you are using it as such, and if you rent it out, you are in breach of that covenant.”
I think you are right, but as long as you continue to pay off the mortgage, the bank will unlikely say “boo.”
RE #117 – John – somewhere around 58% of mothers with infant children work full time, and another large percentage works part time. There are nearly 700k daycare centers in the US.
I fail to see what you are driving at here other than some justification for sexism in the workforce, there hasn’t been a majority of women claiming their occupation as homemaker since the mid 1970s and I don’t see how we will ever go back to that.
Great artcle
lisoosh (103)-
When will locking in a significant discount to market for anything valuable NOT be a headache?
To the persistent go the spoils.
BTW, EVERY deal in this market right now is a headache.
“Clot – I’m sure it is possible to push through a deal now, probably a huge headache too.”
Comrade nom deplume says:
Anyone in real estate want to cover that? I’m not being snarky; I truly don’t know.
Nope, the mortgage company does not keep track of if you still live there.
As long as they’re getting the payment, they don’t care.
People may buy a house, live in it for 5 years, then rent it out. The mortgage company can’t force you to move back in.
Clot (134): “Veto-Vodka”
Sounds like some sort of pro-beer campaign if you ask me.
#128 Nom – Hows the summer in VA and MD? They seemed a bit less humid than the lower south and the time I spent around Richmond made it appear relatively civilized.
Bear in mind that I find the humidity in Bucks County in the summer to be pushing the limits.
I have yet to work on anything bringing a business into NJ.
Hi all, long time no post.
Com – I once worked on a project that was helping to bring jobs to NJ. Fell apart due to city taking too long for approvals, not providing enough incentives and capping the return, so business took excess risk and asking for promises of unionized labor. I don’t understand why don’t they incentivize the business to setup shop, let them be successful, than tax them, as they prosper. The city wanted the business so badly, but couldn’t get out of its own way.
sync (108)-
When this market bottoms out, you won’t be worried about timing. You’ll be wondering why you ever wanted to buy at all.
HB taxes are high because it’s a tiny, totally built-out municipality that is heavily residential. They can’t create any more ratables to r@pe, so the same tiny tax base has to eat the yearly increases.
lisoosh #145,
Richmond area cops are d-bags.
So you think realtors in NJ are delusional? The Detroit Free Press is currently hosting an online chat session about finances. Question: The pain in Michigan is only beginning – why would anyone recommend buying a home in MI?
Answer from RE Consultant: “On the contrary, for someone looking to purchase a home, there is a tremendous inventory for great home values if you are able to take advantage!”
Clot #147,
When this market bottoms out, you won’t be worried about timing. You’ll be wondering why you ever wanted to buy at all.
yeah, thanks for that ray of sunshine :)
plume (131)-
Depends on the mortgage. FHAs do require owner occupancy.
lisoosh says:
the summer in VA and MD?
Washington DC is a big swamp with no breeze whatsoever. It’s Florida hot in the summertime there.
x (152)-
Don’t forget the giant inversion layer of toxic smog that settles over DC until around October every year.
…or, the soul-strangling traffic that moves at the pace of the Donner party.
But the DC metro rocks!
The 58% number is meaningless. Almost half the homes with children do not have a Dad around so of course the Mom works, on top of that lower income people or laid off people the women works. If you go to blue ribbon train towns or even my town the vast majority of women with husbands with good jobs don’t work. The women who do work usually have great jobs and loved their careers. Which is great. In those towns very few women go to a horrible job like Home depot or shoprite or work as AVPs at Chase or Cit in NYC 12 hours a day for peanuts. My town I would say 95& of women with little kids do not work full time. My town is blue collar and 3K daycare is far more than someone with a community college degree who can only work a 35 hour workweek can make. They can’t afford to work in my town and in the rich towns what is the point of working 52 weeks a year for 100K when hubbie gets a 200k bonus each year.
Sean says:
June 3, 2009 at 11:12 am
RE #117 – John – somewhere around 58% of mothers with infant children work full time, and another large percentage works part time. There are nearly 700k daycare centers in the US.
I fail to see what you are driving at here other than some justification for sexism in the workforce, there hasn’t been a majority of women claiming their occupation as homemaker since the mid 1970s and I don’t see how we will ever go back to that.
…or the fact that it seems like even children are packing automatic weapons?
#142 – Clot -very true. And I would be a liar if I didn’t admit that I am as wracked by doubt and uncertainty as any other potential buyer out there.
We missed the boat in 2001 by being US newbies (no credit history) and by the time we had established outselves, I was having kids (no income) and the market exploded.
Now here we are one history breaking bubble later, 800 FICO’s, cash in the bank and the youngest about to enter full-time kindergarten (no more nursery/pre-school dollars).
From my perspective I have one shot to make the wait worth it – whatever I buy, I will be in for a VERY long time. In my area new inventory is coming on line and asking prices are beginning to really fall. I don’t see that in Hunterdon, but know it has to happen – either due to seller capitulation or foreclosures.
Add in a general “what is going to happen in NJ?” concern and the feeling that being a liquid and flexible renter in a time of uncertainty is a plus and I don’t see much downside to being willing to wait for a little bit longer.
re #121 & #124 – Nom and BC.
re: Timmay is truly a prototypical modern Debt Serf, and I would love to know who rented the place in Larchmont for 7,500 a month because it seems like a bailout to me. He is earning only 191k a year as Treasury Secretary and according to our John that is not enough to have a stay at home wife, a million dollar home, and a place down in DC.
Tim has an ARM on his house apparently a 1 Million dollar ARM and a 400k HELOC.
What are his chances of re-fi before the reset? Anyone care to guess, he bought the house in 2004.
I am going to email a reporter over at the the NY Times. I smell something fishy and we need to find out who rented the place for 7,500 a month.
Well, wasn’t actually thinking DC itself….
What East Coast area has bearable winters and low humidity? Just the shore areas themselves?
“I smell something fishy and we need to find out who rented the place for 7,500 a month.”
– Lloyd Blankfein.
I posted a couple of days ago that I was down there (DC) over memorial day weekend looking around after I got some strong job leads.
That place is a pure example of how homebuilders and local gov’ts can do everything possible to f*ck up a perfectly nice place. You take 5 acres of farmland and put 1000 housing units on it of cheap looking vinyl clad townhouses and single family’s so close you can literally touch two houses by stretching out your arms.
A few years later, its overrun by illegal immigrants.
Nice Job!!!!
sean (159)-
His chances of refi are slim and none…and, slim just left town.
He’s underwater right now, probably over 100K.
You also can’t refi a home that’s being offered for sale.
Clot – Tim’s million dollar ARM is with Wells Fargo, so unless he sells the house soon he better hope Warren Buffet has a friends of Warren mortgage program.
g-man’s mortgage? don’t worry about it. after he serves one more year, he can land a $5M/year job easily.
Sean[159],
Hope his wife is shaking down the thunder. 1.4M, total mortgage obligation, and 27K taxes on 191K?
Is tarp paying the 7,500 mo rental?
today’s market gives ultrashorts a breath. in my opinion, the market should pull back 10% or more to atrract new long-term investors.
bi[168],
Once again, nobody cares about your opinion.
[145] lisoosh,
I dreaded moving to DC because of the stories of how it is a fetid swamp in the summer, but I found that not to be the case.
Is it hotter? To be sure, but humidity no worse than anyplace else I lived. Besides, there are only a few weeks of truly oppressive heat and you learn how to deal with that. Also, the spring/fall there is really nice. I also happen to like winter, and there it is not that different than here, though no one knows how to plow a road properly or drive in it, which was maddening (one good thing is that they won’t go out in it once they are home, so when the roads clear, the Northerners can drive around without much hassle).
Traffic isn’t bad if you live inside the beltway, or on the western side of the metro area. Certainly no worse than anything around here. And Metro is very good—my only complaint is that it shuts down too soon at night, around midnight, which is ridiculous.
On the downside, DC is a serious place, lots of self-important people (just like around here, which my wife hated), and not much of a nightlife at all. Singles scene sucks, I am told. It isn’t NYC and doesn’t want to be. But for family living, QOL is very good, especially where we were in McLean.
“June 3 (Bloomberg) — Bill Gross, founder of Pacific Investment Management Co., advised holders of U.S. dollars to diversify before central banks and sovereign wealth funds ultimately do the same amid concern about surging deficits.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aIn5e.W4zVRk
[146] hardplace
That is why PA is eating NJ’s lunch. PA has gov teams to help relocating businesses cut through the red tape. Even with Fast Eddie Rendell in Harrisburg, it is much more biz friendly (except for Philadelphia, which is mired in the same politics and legacy costs as NJ, which led me once to conclude that Philly was really part of South Jersey).
Even the NJ MSM has picked up on that, and I am surprised that King Jon has stood by while his good friend Ed Rendell twists the knife.
John says:
June 3, 2009 at 8:59 am
ChiFi, a few weeks ago I asked you about SUNAMERICA bonds, you were pretty negative and I was very much on fence. You should have pushed me over they are up 300% in a few weeks.
JJ: Sure. But look what happened since….not specific to AIG, but the total amount of capital raised by banks. This one bond set probably has many other like-examples. You could have made good money on other less hazy stuff….
Stu writes: “Qwerty, what do you propose?”
Stu, the reference to Mecca was over your head. Too much nuance, I guess.
As our president attempts to “repair a damaged US image” he is unable to do so from Mecca, as he’s not allowed to set foot there:
http://pajamasmedia.com/wp-content/themes/default/images/rogerkimball/Tourist_Traps-Mecca.jpg
“Well, I am not an expert on mortgages, but I seem to recall that when you take out a mortgage on a primary residence, you convenant that you are using it as such, and if you rent it out, you are in breach of that covenant. ”
Nom,
I currently am in the situation you describe above. I rented out my house and had the mortgage payments forwarded to my new home. The mortgage company balked and said I was in breach of contract and that if I didn’t move back into the home within 12 months that the loan would come due.
They are basing this completely on the fact that my mortage coupons are being mailed to my new address.
I obtained 1% off the lending rate for my home because I was able to obtain state funding for “first-time homebuyer” status. One of the stipulations was that I lived in the house and now that is in breach.
Result? I wrote them a letter that contained a handful of words. “I am in the process of selling the property at XXX address. It sat unsold for over 12 months even with appropriate price declines. I am unable to sell the home and request an extension to the ability to vacate the home. If you are unable to provide an extension please advise on the process moving forward.”
So far they have granted 4 six month extensions on vacating the home and I don’t expect them to change the status quo. The key is to reply to them promptly and honestly. Keep the personal stuff out of any bank communications.
You could possibly avoid this by paying electronically and not changing your home of record with the mortgage company. How would they know that you don’t live there?
169#, that’s ideal because it makes me pure information taker.
> BC Bob says:
June 3, 2009 at 11:46 am
bi[168],
Once again, nobody cares about your opinion.
[171] BC
From the article:
“Geithner, speaking yesterday in an interview in Beijing with Chinese state media outlets, said he has “found a lot of confidence” in the U.S. economy during his trip to China.”
Was that before or after a group of chinese students laughed at him???
This Star Ledger customer doesn’t believe Jon Corzine?
Here in California East, Jon “Whimpy” Corzine has struck again. To prevent the union from picketing his campaign kickoff yesterday he promised the union that the furlough days they take today will be paid days later. He told them they can bank these days. In 15 years when they retire they’ll be paid for the 14 furlough days at their pay rate at the time not today’s rate.
The state borrowed and depleted the transportation funds, the unemployment insurance fund, they’ve allowed municipalties to pay only half their obligated amount into the pension plan. (This will have to pay it and the interest later). There has been no accountability for the SCC money, the BPU (Jeannie Fox’s) secret account, the waste identified in the Abbott audits. The state invested with Jon’s Wall Street buddies and lost $23 Billion of the pension funds. Like California the state just keeps digging itself deeper and deeper into the hole and saying they’ll pay it later much like Whimpy.
[174 qwerty
“as he’s not allowed to set foot there”
But if he does, boy, will that set tongues wagging on talk radio.
“Was that before or after a group of chinese students laughed at him???’
Nom,
Very sad and disconcerting.
Comrade nom deplume says:
QOL is very good, especially where we were in McLean.
I won’t disagree that McLean is very nice but it’s also one of the most expensive neighborhoods there.
[178] confused
I just want them to kick the can down the road for 17–18 years. After that, I hope to have NJ taxpayer status in my rear view mirror, and hopefully beyond the horizon.
Nom #179…
[174 qwerty
“as he’s not allowed to set foot there”
But if he does, boy, will that set tongues wagging on talk radio.
I fully agree with you, Nom. Also, O is not allowed to set foot in many places in Faux News. Big f’ng deal. These nuts wear nice black and gray suits and those nuts over there wear white turbans. Other than that, not much difference between them — and I suspect the suit nuts mistreat their women in the same range as the nuts over there [think comments on Pelosi’s looks and their worship of Palin/Coulter/etc].
Nuts, nuts, everywhere, and not limited to one group. As they say, shake any family tree and a few nuts will fall.
Speaking of nuts, I had the distinct pleasure of speaking to a lot of NYC big fish (quite a few higher ups) and said “Do not panic!” a couple of times! :)
S
[181] x
Probably, but not nearly as much as Great Falls, Potomac, Bethesda, Glen Echo, or most places in Upper NW DC.
I liked the Bethesda area but given taxes and QOL issues, it was a no-brainer to live in VA.
If you like MD, for some reason, which was always never apparent to me, a lot of people loved Columbia. Struck me as a bit too Stepford in thier zeal, however. Also, I could not see the attraction and commuting to DC had to be awful (MARC makes NJT look downright amazing).
Chi Fi, what are your latest corporate bond picks? For once I am at a loss. First day in awhile nothing I want to buy. It is more fun investing downpayment money that is is actually buying the house.
“It is more fun investing downpayment money that is is actually buying the house.”
J,
I agree.
Emrise moves from Cali to NJ
Emrise Corp. has pulled up stakes and left California.
The aerospace-electronics industry manufacturer said this week that it completed its relocation from Rancho Cucamonga to a property in Eatontown, N.J.
#91 beer,
I like Belgium and German beer. Going to get Duvel on the next beer run.
John says:
June 3, 2009 at 12:17 pm
Chi Fi, what are your latest corporate bond picks? For once I am at a loss. First day in awhile nothing I want to buy. It is more fun investing downpayment money that is is actually buying the house.
JJ: Out of the office today, but yeah, it’s tough. The flip side is that I piled into BBB-A’s in 1Q09 in a big way, so I am have goodwill, still, it is a “what have you done for me lately?” world.
#107 x-underwriter
If you have 2 kids, the lower earning spouse needs to make over 50k to break even on daycare, commuting costs, getting take out on the nights no one gets home in time to cook, etc.
green shoots.
nom,
I think the city would have been better off if they created the NOVA job market inside washington DC. That way, people could commute from 360 degrees around the city….like Manhattan By putting all those companies in the stretch between McLean and Reston, everyone has to live in NOVA or face horrendous commutes. Even if you live in MD, you have to follow the Potomac river all the way down to 495 and back up again in VA. More bridges over the river, between say Gaithersburg and Stirling, would alleviate much of the traffic on 495
bi [176],
Well, maybe you should listen to our good friend, Gary S.
“A couple of months ago, a lot of people had hoped that the housing collapse was about over,” says money manager and forecaster Gary Shilling, a well-known bear who called the housing problems early in the cycle. “But it was more hope than reality.”
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/CompanyFocus/coming-a-3rd-wave-of-foreclosures.aspx?page=1
BC (171)-
I wonder what Bill Gross is selling with that statement. He is a bond guy and if he think that the dollar is toast, that means bye-bye to his U.S. bond portfolio. I don’t see the motivation behind his statements. What am I missing?
#188 Safe
Three cautions re: Duvel
1. Expensive
2. 8.5% alcohol
3. Highly carbonated, so use a glass, preferably a chalice.
Enjoy! :)
4. don’t buy duvel green. it’s the new pilsner style and it sux.
safeashouses says:
If you have 2 kids, the lower earning spouse needs to make over 50k to break even
green shoots.
Yeah, life is getting real interesting this year. Until October it’s easy condo livin’ wondering what to do. I need to get through the 1st one before worrying about #2. I’m over 40 so I’m trying to make an argument to leave it at just one. The wife always wins though, so we’ll see what happens.
Qwerty:
I am aware of Mecca and have a solid background in Islamic studies thanks to my gen ed requirements in my undergrad. Are you aware that there are many Mormon temples right here in the US that non-mormons are prohibited from entering as well?
Vic [193],
Maybe he’s moving to the front end of the yield curve?
“It is more fun investing downpayment money that is is actually buying the house.”
i agree too but downpayment savings should be considered your family’s money. its not to be thrown around like roulette chips.
That factor alone ratchets down the risk tolerance and takes alot of the fun out of it. Thats why i enjoy investing the ira much more.
#197 Stu: Very true. Also if you are a Mormon and convert a Jewish or Roman Catholic person, you get extra points.
#196 x-underwriter
Get a crockpot if you don’t have one and also start cooking enough to have leftovers to store in the fridge or freezer. Also over the weekend set up your work outfits for the week.
The first 3 months are very tough. Any time saving routines you can start now I highly recommend you launch so they are second nature come baby time.
BC (198) –
The 2 year yield is 0.91 %. If inflation hits before then, you are screwed, no? And if we have a currency event, which he seems to be forecasting, then the USD bond market is finished. I guess he is moving his money into foreign/emerging market bonds.
Sorry, I am a novice at this and am not able to formulate my thoughts clearly.
BC, Bill Gross says to diversify away from dollar.
Ive asked this question before but i never receive a straight forward answer.
What type of stocks, commodities or ETFs would diversify someone away from dollar?
I hold FXC, DBA, GLD and UNG. Even US blue chips like MCD and F receive some of their sales revenue in foreign dollars. How does one effectively diversify currency risk without having to buy lbs of physical gold and store barrels of crude in their shed?
what happens to srs. only up 1.7% while S&P down 1.7%.
disclaimer: per bc bob, i don’t need disclaimer from now on.
vic,
The short end is not volatile. It also provides for an easy escape route.
veto [203],
It seems like you are diversified versus the dollar.
Not suggesting, just examples;
BRIC, currency pairs or etf’s, grains and related stocks, energy etf’s and related stocks.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/31085395
“Are “Pending Home Sales” Real?”
BC thanks!
Jim Rogers: S&P Could Go to 50,000
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/258129/Jim-Rogers-S&P-Could-Go-to-50000
“Which is one reason why I am not shorting stocks right now. Because there is a possibility of this sort of a thing. There is a possibility that stocks could go through unheard of levels, but would be in worthless currency.”
sorry if this was already posted…
http://finance.yahoo.com/career-work/article/107145/From-Ordering-Steak-and-Lobster-to-Serving-It
We already new this but…clearly NYC finance jobs not gonna hold up the NYC metro area RE market that’s for sure
am I the only person who finds belgian beer too yeasty? I like british and german beers much better
“The world, in my view, is changing and is shifting away from the financial types to producers of real goods, and this is going to last for several decades as it always has.”
Stu,
From the article. If he’s right, not encouraging for a debt buried economy which is 70% consumption.
BC Bob:
“If he’s right, not encouraging for a debt buried economy which is 70% consumption.”
But good for an individual holding two super-sized mortgages and gold in their investment accounts.
gold and srs are two biggest disappoints today. gold down 1.7% when equity market is selling off. i epxected srs going up at least 10% but it went up only 1.8%, less than the drop of S&P. treasury and doller are strong. the world except terrorists (financial ones are included) still likes america.
#159
“Tim has an ARM on his house apparently a 1 Million dollar ARM and a 400k HELOC.
What are his chances of re-fi before the reset? Anyone care to guess, he bought the house in 2004.
I am going to email a reporter over at the the NY Times. I smell something fishy and we need to find out who rented the place for 7,500 a month.”
***********
I agree— it seems fishy. When I saw that he had paid so much for a house initially I assumed he had a lot of equity from the sale of a previous residence, but the amount of debt he is carrying seems to eliminate this possibility. Other possibility is that his wife has a substantial income, in which case the debt level might now be totally insane.
I can tell you that I have friends who are in the SFH rental market in that area of Westchester and there is a sh*tload of houses available for rent, the fact that he was able to rent his out for that price is lucky to say the least.
bi,
We get it, you are clueless.
This may have been posted here already:
“The development, called Crystal Point, is located at 2 Second Street, right on the waterfront.
According to McCann, who came to tonight’s City Council caucus to defend the request, only 24 of the 42-story tower’s eventual 269 condos have sold since they went on the market a few months ago, despite a price drop of 30 percent. The last two units were sold below cost, he said.”
http://www.nj.com/hudson/index.ssf/2009/06/jersey_city_council_mulls_new.html
Stu,
That’s years away if it happens at all. I like Jim Rogers but he can go crazy sometimes talking his book.
I would rather drink bud light than duvel. tastes like medicine
HEHEHE:
“That’s years away if it happens at all.”
I can wait for about thirty years.
RE: “Are you aware that there are many Mormon temples right here in the US that non-mormons are prohibited from entering as well?”
Comparing private property in the form of a single building, to an entire city where intolerance of others is enforced by law, is quite silly.
“That’s years away if it happens at all.”
He/Stu,
If I could go back to 1999, I’d be wearing my Dow 10,000 hat.
Duvel is good, but I’m still sold on the Brother Thelonious.
Lately I’ve been pretty happy with Smithwicks, Guiness, McEwings and Molson Canadien. ShopRite now stocks Rogue which is a good thing, but it goes for $9/six! The Molson is my cheap alternative to the good stuff.
91, Beer,
If you like Duvel, you should try Triple Ale by River Horse (NJ microbrewery)
Anyone else getting thirsty?
BC Bob says:
June 3, 2009 at 1:58 pm
Anyone else getting thirsty?
24 hrs from now I’ll be on a beach w/ a brew. Hell yeah! I’m thirsty.
Oil getting hammered today. I dumped my USO near the recent top, which makes me feel smart.
Problem is, that was one of my inflation hedges, and I won’t know when to get back in.
Com,
Rendell sounds like a heck of a governor. Call me naive, but I thought Corzine was going to be like Rendell. That was poor foresight on my behalf. Well at least I didn’t vote for Bush…
BC @216,
I have no thoughts on the wisdom of Bi’s investment calls, but sometimes the clueless profit almost as well as the knowledgeable. There was a guy giving investment advice in my office in the late nineties, telling everyone how he was getting rich buying stocks with high PEs. He said a high PE means its cheap. He had it @ss backwards, but still made a bundle on tech stocks. Got out before the crash. Many clueless made out the same way with RE.
I’m sure there’s an interesting lesson in market psychology here somewhere, but I can’t figure it out. I guess ‘dumb luck’ pretty much sums it up.
Bi, not referring to you here. Just saying sometimes ‘smart’ and ‘clueless’ has no bearing on investment outcomes.
two good lighter beers for summer I have tried recently
Blue Point Toasted Lager– I am instictively against anything from Long Island but really like this. Very well balanced– not in your face with hops like a lot of microbrews. I like hoppy beers, but I also like mellower beers and not many microbrews go for this style.
Cape Ann Brewing Company, Gloucester, MA Fisherman’s Ale– a german Kolsch-style ale (sort of like a combination of pilsner and ale– pale in color, low carbonation).
Rev,
You can also play the lottery and get lucky once.
This recent rally is a window of opportunity for banks to recapitalize. Once some of these commercial RE and development loans get repriced because of the lack of sales/rentals, than we are gonna be hit w/ downdraft #2. The window will slam shut eventually. While this talk of hyperinflation is definitely a future possibility, I say we will see wave #2 of the leg down first.
HP [226],
Enjoy.
[228] Hard
In 2000, I voted for McCain. Imagine if he had won instead of Shrub. In 2004, I did not so much vote for Shrub as I did against Kerry.
My wife, who is more repub than I am, voted for Rendell because she figured he would give Philly lots of PA tax money. I don’t recall who I voted for in PA (I may not have voted in that race).
I still don’t care for Fast Eddie, but at least he understands that you don’t attract businesses by threatening to tax and regulate them, and not all jobs can come from the government. Not that he learned that lesson in Philly—even though he was mayor during an econ boom, Philly was largely passed by as major employers avoided the area. Philly only got new growth by promising huge tax incentives, financed by Harrisburg. And a few law firms, including Dechert, gamed the system and collected very valuable KOZ tax credits simply for moving their offices a few blocks. Seems that Eddie and the Reps forgot to include language that extended tax breaks to NEW businesses.
Maybe ‘smart money’ doesn’t actually see trends. Maybe they just create them. A conspiracy to simply get the ‘dumb money’ to bid up their investments before before market supply/demand can beat them back to normalcy?
river horse packs a punch, that’s for sure. initially the taste can be overwhelming but after the 1st one you adjust. anything after 2 you’re swinging from the chandelier.
Oh Qwerty,
The Bushes pretty much gave the emir of Saudi Arabia a bj daily. Obama drops in for one visit and you act like it’s the end of the world.
actually, by “efficient theory”, the outcome from the “smart” and “clueless” will be the same as long as you stay in the market long enough. the trick is you have to stay in the market long enough. in trading or investment, arrogance is more dangous than ignorance. this rule has been indicated from this board.
“Maybe ’smart money’ doesn’t actually see trends. Maybe they just create them.”
Rev,
No argument here. However,if not supported by fundamentals, it will eventually fail.
Also, trending markets go thru many phases; support, resistance, breakouts, retracements, overbought/sold, etc.. When certain markets trend positively for 8 years and a individual makes a comment pertaining to one day’s down action, the only conclusion, at least to me, is they are clueless.
Haven’t been to NYC much (though I lived in NJ for over 15 years). Nice place… I got the pleasure of seeing a “vegan Indian dosa stand”! We don’t see that even in Edison.
S
Com,
Unfortunately coming from Wall Street, Corzine probably thinks FIRE related industries are somehow still going to dominate. The state needs to attract other new businesses and industries. Right now we are just attracting flies to the s–t.
Rev (229) –
How did he know when to get out before the crash?
“in trading or investment, arrogance is more dangous than ignorance.”
I agree. That’s why there are avenues to utilize to hedge yourself.
Hard Place says:
June 3, 2009 at 2:04 pm
Com,
Rendell sounds like a heck of a governor. Call me naive, but I thought Corzine was going to be like Rendell. That was poor foresight on my behalf. Well at least I didn’t vote for Bush…
“At this stage nothing is off the table,” he[Rendell] told a news conference yesterday.
http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/09154/974570-454.stm
We’ll see if Rendell is a success in the long run. He’s been trying to bring big government to the entire state.
“How did he know when to get out before the crash?”
Vic,
I was wondering the same?
What’s with Bernanke calling for curbing deficits? Almost seems like a headfake?
I like the Weiss Beers – Franziskaner, Hacker Pschorr etc.
Pilsner Urquell, Stella, and Hoegaaden are nice to sip on.
Blue moon makes a couple nice beers as well. Too bad all the yuppies started dropping oranges in them.
King Cobra when its time to get your drink on and clock the hoes. j/k
When I really want to party, I crack open a smooth bottle of Cisco. It takes you by surprise.
Any of you guys ever drink this hooch in college? Or was it just due to having gone to school with the brothers.
nwnj:
don’t know much about Rendell, but sounds like he is doing a better job than Corzine. I’m not impressed by NJ’s current leadership. I hope the next election will bring in some decent candidates.
http://www.cheapfunwines.com/archives/wine-recommendations/cheap_fun_bum_wines.php
Qwerty says:
June 3, 2009 at 1:53 pm
“RE: “Are you aware that there are many Mormon temples right here in the US that non-mormons are prohibited from entering as well?”
Comparing private property in the form of a single building, to an entire city where intolerance of others is enforced by law, is quite silly.”
Who the frack cares? It’s their holy city and if they don’t want non-Muslims there then fine.
It’s in the middle of the freaking desert -it’s not like you could wander in there by accident anyway.
How about getting upset about the stoning of women for being r@pe victims? Now THAT’S something worth getting upset about. Be nice to hear some of the Saudi’s buddies in the US say something about it once in a while.
I’ll tell you what though, PBR is the best cheap beer out there. It’s even hipster approved. (PBR = Pabst Blue Ribbon)
Comrade nom deplume says:
June 3, 2009 at 2:12 pm
“[228] Hard
In 2000, I voted for McCain. Imagine if he had won instead of Shrub. In 2004, I did not so much vote for Shrub as I did against Kerry.”
McCain would have been vastly superior to Bush, the party machine wanted what it wanted though. Unfortunately the proles complied.
Comparing video of the McCain of 2000 to 2008 showed how much he aged over that time.
From Ritholtz;
kettle,
How about this spread?
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/05/jobopen.png
Hard Place says:
June 3, 2009 at 2:41 pm
nwnj:
don’t know much about Rendell, but sounds like he is doing a better job than Corzine. I’m not impressed by NJ’s current leadership. I hope the next election will bring in some decent candidates.
No problem, just wanted to point out that he’s really just no better than Corzine. Rendell is certainly much more politically savvy than Corzine, however.
Otherwise, he’s using many of the short term fixes that NJ’s already done. Rendell installed slot machines – which are initially effective property tax relief – but I think bureaucracy and graft will erode much of the benefit over time. There are convicted felons holding the slots licenses through straw men.
Rendell is also trying to toll route 80 to pay for Philly’s transit deficit. That very NJ like.
The one big advantage that PA has is a richer tradition of political activism. People will show up at the state house. They were already able to kill the tolling plan once. They also had to post armed guards at the Bedford county courthouse while conducting their property tax revaluation – it’s a different mentality in PA.
Hard Place says:
June 3, 2009 at 2:41 pm
nwnj:
don’t know much about Rendell, but sounds like he is doing a better job than Corzine. I’m not impressed by NJ’s current leadership. I hope the next election will bring in some decent candidates.
No problem, just wanted to point out that he’s really no better policy wise than Corzine. Rendell is certainly much more politically savvy than Corzine, however.
Otherwise, he’s using many of the short term fixes that NJ’s already done. Rendell installed slot machines – which are initially effective property tax relief – but I think bureaucracy and graft will erode much of the benefit over time. There are convicted felons holding the slots licenses through straw men.
Rendell is also trying to toll route 80 to pay for Philly’s transit deficit. That very NJ like.
The one big advantage that PA has is a richer tradition of political activism. People will show up at the state house. They were already able to kill the tolling plan once. They also had to post armed guards at the Bedford county courthouse while conducting their property tax revaluation – it’s a different mentality in PA.
I’ve been grabbing every 6 pack of Barleywine Style Ale’s I can find lately. I cleaned out the ShopRite Liquor in Brigadoon and Oak Tree in Plainfield. It’s a fall beer, so it’s been tough to find, but boy are these beers amazing. Worth a try if you can find a Sierra Nevada Bigfoot or Victory Old Horizontal. Bigfoot is 12% ABV!!
For a lighter beer, I think Stone Ruination Ale is outstanding…if you consider a strong IPA “lighter”.
Thought this might be of interest here. I recall this topic a few months back.
The Mergers and Acquisitions of America’s Towns
…Here on the denser east coast, where municipalities are mostly smushed up against one another, they’re generally opting to merge two or three towns into one: Medford Lakes and Medford Township in New Jersey, for example, might be destined to become plain old Medford.
http://blog.newsweek.com/blogs/wealthofnations/archive/2009/06/03/the-mergers-and-acquisitions-of-america-s-towns.aspx
wow I am surprized – without Kettle nobody commented on this:
http://www.bizjournals.com/louisville/stories/2009/06/01/daily24.html
ADP reports 532,000 May job cuts
ADP also revised higher its estimate of cuts in April to 545,000 from the previous estimate of 491,000.
how about it – 54K revision for April??
verywhere I look I see some green shoots… what is it – 9.3% unemployment?? this way we hit 10% in no time!!!
Based on the revisions, the 532k cut is actually a green shoot compared to the revised 545k.
green shoots!
“Based on the revisions, the 532k cut is actually a green shoot compared to the revised 545k.”
Tantamount to polishing a turd.
beer (194)-
#2 is a recommendation, not a caution:
“Three cautions re: Duvel
1. Expensive
2. 8.5% alcohol
3. Highly carbonated, so use a glass, preferably a chalice.”
RE 254,
Is that a cup and handle pattern?
he [263],
That or a parabolic moon shot.
No moon shot here;
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Rising yields on long-term Treasury debt is a signal that the Federal Reserve should being raising interest rates, said Thomas Hoenig, the president of the Kansas City Federal Reserve district bank on Wednesday. The higher yields are a signal that the market is concerned with the inflationary pressure from the high federal budget deficit and “very” accommodative monetary policy, Hoenig said in a speech in Wyoming. “I suggest strongly that we need to be alert to the markets’ message and begin in earnest to bring monetary policy into better balance before inflation forces get out of hand,” Hoenig said. Earlier Wednesday, Fed chairman Ben Bernanke was more sanguine about the rise in bond yields.
“April’s reading was revised to show a reduction of 545,000 workers, up from a previous estimate of 491,000.”
“Is an 11% month over month change in an employment number a revision or a rewrite?
The ADP report is supposed to be based on actual reports from private industry.
This pervasive pattern of ‘good numbers’ that result in stock market rallies and the massaging of public opinion, only to be replaced by downward revisions thirty days later, with little notice or quote, is cynical manipulation of the media at best, and a dangerous slide into social engineering by an increasing distortion of ‘reality’ at worst.”
John says:
I think people have overealistic expectations is the real problem ala lifestyles of the rich and famous wannabees
Exhibit #1
Spending $5200 per person so everyone can puke without even touching a drop.
So in love they could float away: Brooklyn couple to wed in zero gravity
A Brooklyn couple will become the first on the planet to say “I do” in zero gravity when they tie the knot later this month.
The flight costs $5,200 per person and Finnegan and Fulmore are footing the entire bill themselves.
“I think we will spend some of our married life simply paying off the expense, but I think that weightlessness is probably the best metaphor for love that one can experience,” Fulmore said.
http://www.nydailynews.com/ny_local/brooklyn/2009/06/03/2009-06-03_so_in_love_they_could_float_away_bklyn_couple_to_wed_in_zero_gravity.html
Strong dollar, strong dollar, who wants a strong dollar? Come get your strong dollars here!
John you just don’t appreciate science fiction
The “Housing Rebound” As Traded By An Insider
Posted by Tyler Durden at 3:39 PM
Money talks, and earnings call transcripts walk. At least that is the case for homebuilder Toll Brothers, whose chairman Bob decided to provide some optimism during his Q1 2009 earnings call and then proceeded to dump stock not once, not twice, but seven times in a span of one month.
We have to take advantage of opportunities we believe will arise from the current downturn. We’re beginning to see some properties come to market at reasonable prices. We have not bought any yet, but we are getting closer. Ironically now is a very good time to buy a home with the decline in home prices and historically low mortgage rates, home price affordability is at an all time high according to the National Association of Realtors.
Ironically, it is an even better opportunity it seems to buy other property with proceeds from selling your own stock in the most insane short covering rally ever, eh Bob? One has to hand it to him though, he can sure see the forest for the green shoots.
Just in case it is not obvious, the red arrows indicate where Bob decided to call it a day…over and over…
PS: Bob Toll about to appear on CNBC… Wonder if he is asked about his insider sales.
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/06/housing-rebound-as-traded-by-insider.html
In honor of all the beer discussion & as I don’t drink beer just went down & had a few scotches. Now that should make you thirsty.
Meet up with my plumber no work. Coming over soon so I can show him some Gov help in refi area.(knowing the numbers walk away, but live free for a while) Owner of restaurant now wants me to help his grandson in trouble in PA. Business opportunity? Help now for those with no clue. Gary you out there we can do this Bairen you in. The 3 musketeers of layoff.
re #265 Zieba – The other alternative unemployment meaurement is daily income tax deposits to the U.S. Treasury.
The BLS data comes out on Friday, estimates are around 525k.
Anyway you slice it we will be over 9% unemployment.
More Green Shoots!
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a4/501st_Parachute_Infantry_Regiment2.jpg
#270 mikeinwaiting,
We could be the 3 stooges of finance and career planning. gary can very easily play Moe.
I told one of my friends how we looked at some open houses last week. He said but you got laid off. I said yeah, I figured I could use my unemployment for the downpayment on an FHA loan, if my wife lost her job we could get a cram down when one of us started working again. If not, we could squat for 1 to 2 years. He couldn’t stop laughing. (I was kidding, but I bet people really do stuff like that)
safe you have no idea of how many people i talk to who are deep sh*t. they do do that. teacher i spoke to 2 kids divorced hasn’t payed anything in a year still in house trying short sale multiple offers bank can’t get off the pot & get it done. Believe me there is a market.
Was wondering what you were doing looking in present sit myself. Would not bring it up but now that you mention it.
more green shoots,
new cars going for 40% off sticker
http://www.cnn.com/2009/US/06/02/dealership.closing/index.html
the dealer has to sell because he can’t renew his franchise, but because chrysler filed for bankruptcy, it doesn’t have to take the cars back.
Love yet another late day rally for no apparent reason. Four days in a row now?
Did someone say Cooper’s? Been a fan since I first tried one about 4 years ago but can’t find it. Admittedly haven’t tried that hard, but where are you finding it?
#273 mike
Not sure what i’m going to wind up doing. Am thinking about launching my own business. with 2 kids making 1k a month working from home with no daycare is like making over 60k a year with them in daycare.
green shoots!
[258] lorraine
or as we would say in Bawstahn, “meffa”
Business in NJ? My parents have had to deal with the town about a dozen times just to try to sell a commercial property. I don’t even want to know what kind of garbage the moron who bought the property goes through when he attempts to get some permits to renovate it.
Hey, aren’t you guys gaining some weight drinking all that beer?
Jim
from CNBC:
“A new report shows the five U.S. states poised to lead the nation out of recession.
You might want to get out your hiking boots and trail mix because most of the states are out in the northwest: Colorado, Idaho, Oregon, Texas and Washington.
Those are the states where job growth is expected to sprout first — in the fourth quarter of this year — according to Moody’s Economy.com, which conducted the survey.
The criteria for the survey included the labor market, income, credit quality/banking, real estate and consumer spending. Moody’s conducts a regional employment forecast as well as an “adversity index” to gauge the status of state economies.”
The report did a second and third tier of states (19 in all) that will emerge first from the Great R. Noticed that NJ wasn’t on the list.
I wonder how many pending sales were based on mortgage rates from a few weeks ago.
Some potential buyers may be in for a rude awakening
Actually beer makes me stronger and better looking and hot girls want me. Well if what I read in beer ads is true anyhow.
John [283],
Just thinking out loud. Are you a neutered accountant?
I already did it twice today!! Now I need a tall boy and a steak to get me ready for the third time.
BC Bob just to drive you a little nuts watch CIT very closely the next few days, little Timmy is about to bail them out. They are systemicly important to middle market lending. Bet they do a cram down on bonds or a tender or pref, time it just right get in cheap before annoucement and ride the pop, it will happen most likely.
BC Bob says:
June 3, 2009 at 4:47 pm
John [283],
Just thinking out loud. Are you a neutered accountant?
John [285],
Haven’t they already been bailed out?
Nope, they need ability to issue FDIC backed bonds in order to address liquidity concerns, that is still pending. They are a bank, yes but that don’t help much.
BC Bob says:
June 3, 2009 at 5:00 pm
John [285],
Haven’t they already been bailed out?
So many beer posts, so little time…
#211/219 skep-tic
Belgians too yeasty? There’s a huge variety of styles and I’m not sure which ones you mean. I wonder if you sampled a bottle-conditioned ale. Extra yeast is added at bottling for a second fermentation. You can minimize the yeasty taste by trying not to disturb the sediment on the bottom of the bottle when you pour.
#219 I can understand where you are coming from. Duvel is very unique, people usually love it or hate it.
#230 Blue Point’s Toasted Lager is a very nice beer. Never had Cape Ann’s but I will try it on your recommendation.
# 223 Stu
Brother Thelonious is a great ale. I love that stuff.
I am very jealous of your Shop Rite. The two near me don’t carry any beer at all, let alone Rogue.
224 Firestormik
I like River Horse’s triple. The brewery is about a 10 minute drive away from me. I like to support the locals so I’ve had most of their styles. Mostly very good stuff.
252 Secondary Market
Pabst Blue Ribbon was my go to beer when I was in college. Or Red White and Blue, which was known as Pabst’s Bad Batch…
Interesting blurb from a Filipino business newspaper that I came across, suggesting how the Phillipines could capitalize on the economic morass in the U.S.:
” . . . . Two things will happen to support this massive government spending and the funding of the financial bottomless pits of government corporations: uncontrolled printing of money and high, crippling taxes. . . .
Higher taxes always start with the “tax only the rich” song, as with Obama. Yet, it is the “rich,” that always created the successful businesses; that is how they became rich. Both Sweden and the UK followed the same formula as Obama is doing. Sweden raised taxes to the point that anyone making over $250,000 per year paid 102-percent tax on the excess amount. They were penalized for making money. And what did these people do? They left their countries; ironically, most for the United States, where wealth-building was still rewarded.
With a substantially devalued currency and with a tax rate that pushes the individuals who drive private-sector economic growth out of the system, what happens?
Read this from an American commentator, Bill Whittle: “The top 10 percent [of income earners] pays 60 percent of the total income tax, and which allows the bottom half to pay nothing. So let me now send a personal message to the rich in America. Leave. Just go away. Retire to the Cayman Islands or Bermuda or wherever, but do it now, please. Close your companies, fire your employees, shutter your factories and offices, sell your property and take all of that somewhere else…better yet: somewhere scenic but poverty-stricken. Somewhere that could use some wealth creation. Somewhere that people simply are grateful to have a job in the first place. Somewhere where you will be appreciated. You are not welcome in America any more. Take your wealth and prosperity and inventiveness and hard work and vision and insight and bold risk-taking and joy in seeing growth and wealth creation and just go away.” And come to the Philippines.
Is this dreaming and wild speculation? No, it will happen. In fact, it is happening. The billions of dollars US companies are spending abroad on outsourcing is a result of the US corporate-tax rates being the second-highest in the world. The Philippines, accused of being a “tax haven,” is the first shot of many more to come in the war to keep the West’s wealthy (and their money) at home.
The Philippines will definitely reap the rewards of this new and doomed attempt at economic statism in the United States. The Philippines has a Western-friendly culture combined with an Asian setting. The overwhelming abundance of natural resources and its wealth will help keep the peso strong and stable, and inflation well-controlled. The Philippines, like many similar countries, is continuously moving toward a more business/wealth creating-friendly environment.
These factors and others will fuel a migration of capital and business from the West to the Philippines. This relocation of wealth will be long, deep and sustained.”
257 Daddyo
Sierra Nevada’s Bigfoot Barleywine should be available all year. Not sure about Victory’s Old Horizontal but I saw it in Flemington today.
This beer talk is my kind of liquidity crisis.
#276 meter
Re: Coopers
Supersaver in Pennington had at least four different styles of Coopers the last time I was there.
Little Brothers in Flemington carries it, too.
Check with Oak Tree if you’re near South Plainfield. Best beer store in the state.
re: belgian beers
I admit I haven’t had a wide variety. The ones I have had I’ve more disliked than liked: Duvel (don’t like), Delirium Tremens (don’t like), Kwak (like) and a couple with that cherry extract the belgians seem to go for (tastes like cough medicine to me, but maybe I’ve had bad examples).
Could also be that I haven’t had enough belgian beers to appreciate the various styles. I used to hate sam adams boston lager but it ended up growing to be one of my favorites after I had it a bunch of times.
RE: “Obama drops in for one visit and you act like it’s the end of the world.”
Hardly. Just relaying the facts.
However, I will say I am generally down with Belgian culture insofar as it seems to consist mainly of beer, waffles and mussles.
#296 skep-tic
Delirium Tremens is bottle conditioned. I suspect that’s where the yeasty taste factor came in.
The cherry stuff is a Kriek Lambic. Its a traditional style that’s also made with peach (Peche) and raspberry (Framboise). The ladies often love it but I had to acquire a taste for it. Its a little different as its made with wild yeast.
Well at least Obama’s Medical Plan will exempt Public Employees. Would hate to see them fail to get all the medical tests & treatment they need after age 60. Also good that he won’t tax Public Medical, only Private Sleps.
Re: Secondary Market,
If 2 bottles of River Horse makes you swing from the chandelier, you definetely shouldn’t try Weyerbacher 13 :) I guess you’ll be swinging after the first one
WWFB (295):
Thanks!
If you plan to buy in a few years and have what you think is perfect credit, take note.
You and your spouse can be 800+ on your credit scores and still be told that your mortgage app has to go into review if you don’t have “seasoned” credit lines.
So you might have 20% or more ready to slap down and perfect history but if you don’t carry at least a few cards and use each of them every month and pay it off on time each month, be prepared to go to committee.
I Love America.
Oak Tree, ShopRight Brigadoon, and the Wine Library all told me they couldn’t get Bigfoot or Old Horizontal off season.
*shrug*
3 different workers in Oak Tree all commended me for grabbing the last 2 six packs they had.
The Economist:
Search your underpants for signs of a recovery
http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2009/05/searching_underpants_for_green.cfm
“Greenspan reasons that because hardly anyone actually sees a guy’s undies, they’re the first thing men stop buying when the economy tightens.”
Venezuela Chavez says “Comrade” Obama more left-wing
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE5520GX20090603
Your site is very full of good information. Everyone can learn so much things by reading hear.
#304 daddyo
I checked the web sites and you’re right, both brews are seasonals. I was thrown off by the Bigfoot since it seems to be continuously available where I am the last few years.
No problem being out of season, really, since the alcohol content yields a long shelf life as long as its properly stored.
If you really want them, and you don’t mind driving, try Little Brothers in Flemington. They had both today.
This site is the best. I’m so glad I found it.
Oh wait, I’m not a bot!
SA:
Today’s Yellow Shoot: The MBA Mortgage Report
http://seekingalpha.com/article/141184-today-s-yellow-shoot-the-mba-mortgage-report
“With all 6 of those points combined, and with literally hundreds of billions thrown at the problem, what growth did we see in pending home sales versus a year ago when prices were much higher, foreclosures were a fraction of sales, interest rates were somewhat normal and tax credits…err down payments were not being handed out like candy? Wait for it… a 3.2% year over year increase. Wow…. overwhelming.”
“Your site is very full of good information. Everyone can learn so much things by reading hear.”
Stu, if not a bot, this is post of the year material.
skep (298)-
You forgot hatred of the Dutch.
“However, I will say I am generally down with Belgian culture insofar as it seems to consist mainly of beer, waffles and mussles.”
Hi I asked this before but does anyone else know what a typical relocation company will give to a home seller if they do not sell their house? Is it 100% of value or 90% or less. do they typically pay realtor fees also?
Remember a way’s back when we were looking into the cause of the income gap, the end of personal savings and personal debt madness. Well, I blamed Reagan. I just read Krugman from May 31st, and he pretty much said the same thing. Now I’m not the biggest fan of Krugman, but I suppose I am hopelessly liberal.
I still think that the biggest two contributors to the destruction of our country were the removal of the Glass-Stiegal actband the Garn-St. Germain Depository Institutions Act.
Krugman article: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/01/opinion/01krugman.html?_r=1
Stu – Krugman is just playing it up to his NY base by blaming Reagan, Garn-St. Germain Depository Institutions Act was a bi-partisan bill that passed the house 272-91 and Charles Schumer was one of 28 co-sponsors.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Garn_-_St_Germain_Depository_Institutions_Act
Now I have to convince my wife why I need to make an important trip to Flemington.
“they have bigfoot” is not going to cut it.
I have a case of Old Horizontal in the basement I was planning to age…it’s been really hard to keep my hands off it.
[307] yome
Nancy Reagan was in DC for an event honoring President Reagan, and was with O-bama for a signing. Actual dialogue:
Nancy: “Oh, you’re a lefty”
Barack: “Yeah, I’m a lefty.”
I am sure he said it with a grin. You can’t script this stuff.
Thanks Sean.
I’m not actually trying to play the partisan thang.
What I strive to figure out is why or how the income gap grew so rapidly starting in 1980. Senate was Repub and Congress was Dem, if you want to look at it that way.
All I know is that the rich started getting way richer and the middle and lower haven’t even kept up with inflation. Something happened in the early 80s to contribute to this phenomenon.
Manchester United dumps AIG
In the 34th minute, Costa Rica 2, US 0. Just an execrable, disgusting display of football.
How can our women win everything and the men not be able to beat teams from countries the size of Rhode Island?
Stu (319)-
Man U jersey for 2009-10:
http://tinyurl.com/qsnaf6
re: #318 – Stu – The best explanation I have read regarding the income gap is that in the early 80s an American Gambling Culture arose. Speculation and focus on short term gains a winner take all mentality that gave rise to justifying huge payouts to the top 1% even with minimal short term gain, and even without any gain.
Most economists simply cannot get their heads around what has happened, if you can then more power to you.
Why the income divide starting in the 80s? Because by then the push towards automation, etc. started and that hit blue-collar jobs, many of which were high-paying jobs that did not require mich education. When those jobs got replaced with robots or made unnecessary due to other forms of automation and due to exporting jobs to reduce costs, it was not the higher-paying folks who took the beating. One can skew the numbers by increasing the high end or by reducing the low end. Don’t discount the low end.
mich, much, whatever.
glad to be back from vaca. was reading the site from the cell phone, that’s how hooked the wife and i are.
plus, it was humorous to hear meek arguments from the likes of frank (the racist), bi (the idiot) and lurker till now, who HAS to be pret.
grim – if there is some secret GTG, PLEASE put us on the email list. big fans.
anyone going to Spring Lake for Jul 4 weekend?
usa soccer with a weak 1st half on the cement in Costa Rica. clot, i know you’re watching. beasley looks like garbage. such a fall from his v good 02 cup.
“Pabst Blue Ribbon was my go to beer when I was in college. Or Red White and Blue, which was known as Pabsts Bad Batch”
Buckhorn, baby! We used to get a 12 pack for less than people could buy a 6 pack of Pepsi. Yea it sucked, but it was, at least in some sense, beer, and we were poor.
yikes (325)-
They all look like crap to me. 45 minutes of pure suck.
Stu,
What is Greenspan talking about? Underwear? Who wears that anymore?
Time to go commando Alan? Let Andrea see you walking into the National Press club knowing their is just one thin bit of fabric between the press and your leading indicators.
We used to drink allot of Rheingold back in the day, and we thought we were cool, no bud, no Miller and definitely none of those imported brews. Now every once in a while I will see it in a liquor store and flashbacks will make me immediately run over to the wine isle.
Gator,
FYI, I e-mailed Grim for your e-mail address and have not heard back yet. Feel free to get mine from him.
And Alexi Lalas is ESPN’s commentator? He’s possibly the slowest, dumbest player ever turned out by our joke of a men’s national team.
Of course, he redeemed himself as GM in LA by managing to turn the most popular soccer player on the planet into the most hated athlete in town.
“Rheingold”
I am having flashbacks to the Rheingold commercials and their jingle.
It reminds me of a commercia I saw late one night maybe 30 years ago for what must have been a really bad wine, given how they positioned themselves:
“Try Cadillac wine, a step above thunderbird”
Shore (328)-
How can AG wear u-trou? Nowhere to fit the catheter and bag.
Clot,
Can’t he stuff the bag in a sock?
Here is something perfect for Main Ave in Ocean Grove, at least in summer:
http://m.cnn.com/cnn/ne/us/detail/315534;.live5i
willwork4beer –
The Portland OR daughter was just here for a visit – Widmer Brothers Hefeweizen still in the frig – unfiltered wheat beer. It will likely stay there until I have a visitor that will drink it.
Portland OR is a big brewery town. Same daughter swears by Hopworks Urban Brewery and is employeed by the McMenamins folks.
Are you referring to the Rogue Ales out of Oregon? Daughters buy that too. Sierra Nevada is the basic beer I know I can buy for when they visit.
Stu (318) Sean (322) Shore (323)
“What I strive to figure out is why or how the income gap grew so rapidly starting in 1980.”
I have thought about (and been troubled by) this subject as well. The lowest group couldn’t go lower – let’s say they make nothing – but incomes can go up so the only way to go, for that top group, is up. That appears to have been where the opportunities were – tech – IPOs – Think Microsoft – big money – highest group.
All I came up with is that maybe more people entered the welfare roles (-0-) and started contributing to the lowest income number skewing the picture as the growth was concentrated at the upper end – leading to more of a disparity.
Does that even make sense?
It’s early…
Just got back from LA. Duvel was the beer of choice for all the hipster dufuses out there. Anyone a fan of Father’s Office?
I hate the red eye and 757-300s. If you can’t put your feet up in 1st class on a red eye then what’s the point?
I need a new thread for when I wake up.
Re: The Income flat line and disconnect from the 80s to date. From all the reading I do on this, I’m pretty sure Health Insurance is a major contributor.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090604/us_nm/us_healthcare_bankruptcy
~#242 from last thread:
“Victorian says:
June 3, 2009 at 2:24 pm
Rev (229) –
How did he know when to get out before the crash?”
Sorry just catching up now. My recollection is he bought a boat and a place in the Poconos with gains. He’d say how lucky he was to ‘cash out’ when he did, but I’m sure he lost a bunch too.
If you haven’t done a short sale yet, you are lucky. I mean it’s already hard enough selling property right now, a short sale just adds layers and layers of uncertainty. The fact that offers on short sale properties must be reviewed by the lender is one of the biggest problems. It’s not so much the fact the offers have to be reviewed, but it’s the time that it takes for them to do it that’s the problem.
It’s great that the new FHA guidelines were rolled, but it seems like the only way for that to make a real serious impact is if it is made permanent. It’s just a fact that real estate in Castle Rock and Douglas County cost more than in many other parts of the state. Therefore it makes sense for us to have higher FHA guidelines
I’m looking forward to reading your other posts!