Tue 23 Jun 2009
The “macroeconomic forces are still overwhelmingly negative.”
Categories: Economics , Housing Bubble , National Real EstateMark your calendars, the long awaited GTG
When: Friday June 26th, 7:30ish
Location: Fitzgerald’s 1928 http://www.fitzgeralds1928.com
13 Herman Street (off Bloomfield Ave)
Glen Ridge, NJ 07028
Google Maps Link
For drivers, this is right off exit 148 on the Parkway.
For those looking for mass transit, Fitzgeralds is 2 blocks away from the Glen Ridge Station on the Montclair Boonton Line.
————————————
From the Record:
Report: Housing market suffered “massive shock”
The housing market has suffered a “massive shock” and faces a difficult recovery in the face of job losses, foreclosures and tight credit, according to a report released today by Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies.
“It’s difficult to overstate the challenges in the housing market today,” said Nicholas Retsinas, director of the center, who presented the annual State of the Nation’s Housing report in New York City. “While there are some positive signs in the marketplace, the macroeconomic forces are still overwhelmingly negative.”
The good news is that the bursting of the housing bubble has made real estate more affordable. And, looking over the next 10 years, the huge “echo boomer” generation will soon start establishing their own households in large numbers, increasing demand for homes.
In North Jersey and the rest of the New York metropolitan area, homes have held their value better than in many regions of the nation as the housing bubble burst over the past several years. But price declines in the New York area have begun to accelerate, partly as a result of job cuts in financial services, a major economic engine for the region.
Eric Belsky, executive director of the housing center, said the home price declines are likely to continue in the area for some time — though they will not drop as much as in areas such as Florida, Nevada, Arizona and California, where developers overbuilt during the housing boom. Because this area is already largely developed, and state and local governments tightly regulate construction, builders did not overbuild in North Jersey.
From MarketWatch:
Leaving home
Nearly half of American adults who participated in a recent survey said they no longer believe that homeownership is a realistic way to build wealth, the National Foundation for Credit Counseling reported on Monday.
The findings, from a recent survey of about 1,000 people, run counter to the long-held perception that a home should be part of a person’s financial strategy, the NFCC said.
“It had been considered the cornerstone of wealth building,” said Gail Cunningham, spokeswoman for the NFCC. Homeownership had been a significant tool that most people felt was necessary to prepare for retirement, she said in a phone interview.
From MarketWatch:
Housing market continues to weaken: report
The U.S. residential real estate market is caught in the worst correction in decades with few reasons to be optimistic as the economy worsens, according to a key housing report released Monday.
“Despite unprecedented federal efforts to jumpstart the economy and help homeowners keep up with their mortgage payments, home prices continued to fall and foreclosures continued to mount in most areas through the first quarter of 2009,” according to the executive summary of the State of the Nation’s Housing annual report released by Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies.
“While new and existing home sales and single-family starts have shown some signs of stabilizing, ongoing job losses, house price deflation, and tighter mortgage credit are placing any recovery at risk,” the report said.
A recent bump-up in mortgage rates and rising foreclosures and job losses are just a few of the challenges standing in the way of a lasting recovery, economists say.
“Although there are some signs of improvement or at least steadiness in new construction and sales, housing starts stand near 60+ year lows and any life in home sales is coming from distressed foreclosure sales, temporary first-time buyer tax credits, and low interest rates that moved higher in recent weeks,” said Nicolas Retsinas, director of Harvard’s Joint Center, in a press release.
From Reuters:
NY market to fall further, rebound far off
New York’s depressed commercial real estate market is likely to fall further before rebounding, but its eventual recovery will be helped by new buyers who stayed away from the frothy market earlier this decade, industry observers said on Monday at the Reuters Global Real Estate Summit.
“New York typically dives to the bottom faster but it will be coming back,” said top commercial real estate broker Darcy Stacom of CB Richard Ellis Group Inc (CBG.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), comparing it to other U.S. cities.
The value of commercial real estate in Manhattan has fallen by about half from its highs in 2007, and asking rents are down about 28 percent, Stacom added.
“It’s going to be one of the more painful markets to watch,” said Jacques Gordon, global strategist and head of research with LaSalle Investment Management in Chicago, who estimates it will take at least two more years before the New York market picks up again.
From Bloomberg:
U.S. Home Resales Probably Rose as Foreclosures Reduced Prices
Home resales in the U.S. probably advanced for a second month in May as record foreclosures caused prices to drop, economists said before a report today.
Purchases of existing homes rose 3 percent to a 4.82 million annual pace, the highest level since October, from 4.68 million in April, according to the median of 74 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. It would mark the first back-to-back increase since 2005.
Tax breaks for first-time buyers in the Obama administration’s stimulus plan, falling property values and lower mortgage rates have helped support the market. At the same time, any recovery is likely to be limited with unemployment rising and borrowing costs shooting back up.
“We’re seeing some early signs of stabilization in home demand but it’s important to emphasize the level of sales remains extraordinarily low,” said Zach Pandl, an economist at Nomura Securities International Inc. in New York. “Housing investment is likely to stop being a drag on growth some time this year but, given the weakness in sales, it’s unlikely to give positive contributions any time soon.”
The National Association of Realtors is scheduled to release the report at 10 a.m. in Washington. Estimates in the Bloomberg News survey ranged from 4.6 million to 5 million.
OK, so buying a home isn’t to build wealth anymore. Im not looking to build wealth, im just tired of living in an apartment.
Im looking to buy something I can afford in an area with good schools and an area that seems to attract individuals with money, in the hopes that the market doesn’t drop further.
I just noticed this 3 bedroom split in Morris Plains and was looking for opinions.
Remax mls: 2692775
#5 Sittin: How do people with money stop the market from dropping further?
and an area that seems to attract individuals with money
?
Im not talking millions here, im talking mid to upper class white collar workers. Northern NJ is filled with areas that will not harmed by this real estate drop as much as other areas will.
Ive been watching these area for the past 2 years and the prices are not staying steady, they are just not dropping as hard as other areas. The multi million dollar homes in Alpine will take a HUGE hit as well as the lower income housing in Newark, Paterson and Passaic.
The middle of the road areas in Northern NJ, there is way too high of a population too extremely effect it.
#5 sittin around
Here’s a link to trends for Morris Plains from Trulia.
http://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Morris_Plains-New_Jersey/
You can click on the buttons to get more detailed info.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_H2DePAZe2gA/SkASbKnDxOI/AAAAAAAAJSI/G3pxBDjh91g/s1600-h/shotgunweddingboa.JPG
Thats great info, thanks 9
A drop of 16K in median sale price YOY. Definitely no Cape Coral FL.
#11 sittin around
No worries.
If you go to trulia.com you can find most of the addresses for the houses for sale. Then go to tools on the home page for njrereport and click on Monmouth county tax record. Select morris county from the drop down menu, then Morris Plains. Type in the address, but just the number and name of the street, do not include road, avenue, court etc.
That will USUALLY show you what the price was the last time it sold, date of transaction, and what the prop taxes are.
Also some trulia listings will show you the price and date of the last sale.
Barry Ritholtz will be doing a reading of his new book at 5th Ave Barnes & Noble tomorrow @6:30 pm:
http://store-locator.barnesandnoble.com/event/61714
#8 - The problem is, those mid to upper class white collar folks don’t aspire to live in towns like Morris Plains, they do so because they can afford it.
Where do they want to live? The place where the “talkin millions” folks live.
No way that Morris Plains will hold it’s value better than Madison, Chatham, Millburn, Summit, Mendham, Basking Ridge, Bernardsville, Mountain Lakes, Harding, etc.
“Mother Lode of Online Resources for the Unemployed
Although I include links to hundreds of blogs and other websites at Financial Armageddon and When Giants Fall that can help visitors understand what is going on in the world and how best to cope, whenever I come across others that might also prove useful, I’m happy to point them out.
As it happens, today I stumbled across a mother lode of sites geared towards those who are unemployed. Denise Gabbard, a professional recruiter and career coach, has posted this collection, entitled “100 Tips, Tools, and Resources - To Help You Survive Without a Job,” at the Cleveland Unemployment Examiner.”
http://www.financialarmageddon.com/2009/06/mother-lode-of-online-resources-for-the-unemployed.html
14, I’m not sure if that was an argument or an insult.
They don’t aspire to live in Morris Plains…
Did you get your bike stolen in Morris Plains when you were a kid.
#16 - Neither, just an observation. This is something I see and hear every day.
As prices have fallen, my purchase clients haven’t reduced their budgets at all, in fact, many have started looking in the same price ranges in “better” towns. Heck, a handful have even considered increasing their budget and stretching upwards to skip the starter house and consider a property that they would stay in long term.
Remember, you breached the topic, not I.
Im looking to buy something I can afford in an area with good schools and an area that seems to attract individuals with money, in the hopes that the market doesn’t drop further.
ChiFi (from last night’s thread):
The Hat (as us locals call it), is still thriving. I have a close friend who lives four houses down from it in West Orange. I’m glad you frequented Tierney’s. Sorry to hear that it ruined you.
I know, but wanted to check out inside, btw 7 has a hardcopy book that advertises that you can only get at dealer if you ask, it is free and is almost coffee table quality.
I think the M will be a tough sell to my wife, at auction I had a chance to buy a 2007 STS V series caddie with 7k miles. Even my selling point with a top speed close to 200mph I could drive us to disney world in under 5 hours did not convince her I needed such a fast car for the train station.
Qwerty says:
June 22, 2009 at 5:12 pm
RE: “checking out new 7 series”
Walk past the M5 to slide into that boat?
Don’t be a girlie man.
Stu,
Gary and I tried to go to Tierneys on a Thursday or Friday night.
It was a madhouse, we didn’t bother going in. Instead, we went over to Fitzgeralds in Glen Ridge. Way better vibe, outside tables are key, good alcohol selection. We closed that place.
Actually now that I think of it, Fitzgeralds would be a super place for a GTG. We may need to dump Bergen Co. and head over to Glen Ridge on Friday.
We don’t need no stinkin badges!
Citi gains control of Spanish toll road firm
MADRID, June 23 (Reuters) - Pear Acquisition, on behalf of Citi Infrastructure Partners (CIP), said on Tuesday it had gained control of Spain’s Itinere in a cash deal worth 2.87 billion euros ($3.98 billion).
CIP, a private equity fund owned by Citigroup (Symbol : C
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), expects to hold a total of 62 percent of Itinere in the next few days and has an option to fully acquire the company once financial conditions improve.
Citi had also agreed to take on 5 billion euros of Itinere’s debt as part of a deal struck with Spanish builder Sacyr last year. ($1=.7216 Euro) (Reporting by Tracy Rucinski; Editing by Simon Jessop)
236-unit RiversEdge opens on Weehawken waterfront
New home construction has slowed to a trickle in New Jersey and nationwide, and the National Association of Home Builders reported that builders remain deeply pessimistic, citing higher interest rates and a lack of construction financing.
Residential building permits in the state are running at an annual rate of about 12,000 - the lowest level since World War II, according to economist Patrick O’Keefe of J.H. Cohn, a Roseland accounting firm.
But Hudson County is one of the few places where there is significant construction activity, accounting for more than 25 percent of the state’s total building permits.
And Carl Goldberg, a partner in Roseland Property, said there is still demand for rentals so close to New York City.
“Rental demand continues to be very strong, because even in this economic climate, rental costs on the New Jersey side of the river are still significantly lower than in New York,” he said.
RiversEdge has 236 apartments, ranging from studios that rent for $1,822 a month to two-bedrooms with dens for $3,573 a month. By contrast, Goldberg said, similar new two-bedroom apartments across the river would rent for as much as $5,000.
grim,
Personally, it doesn’t matter to me the location of the GTG, I was just considering easy highway access for all.
N.J. Senate approves senior housing bill
The state Senate today passed a bill that allows developers to challenge age restrictions on pending developments.
The bill (S-2577), which passed 21-13, allows developers to ask municipalities to reconsider projects that had been approved as senior housing. If the towns don’t open up the buyer pool, developers can take their case to court.
The bill only applies to projects that have not started construction nor sold a unit.
Supporters say this is strictly an economic issue - it’s a type of stimulus to help builders, who have been hit hard by the recession and housing crash, to start working again.
Builders are reluctant to break ground on further senior housing projects because the market has become so overbuilt.
Using statistics from Otteau Valuation Group, builders say there is a 16-year supply in senior housing. That means it will take 16 years to get to a healthy market level of a six-month supply, taking into account all the houses on the market now and all those that are in the pipeline.
The bill had faced opposition from towns that feared losing control over the process and senators who felt it was unfair to allow courts to reverse communities’ decisions.
Sittin,
there are certainly some people who have a sound financial foundation and will be eager to buy as prices drop. However, what is the source of income for a number of the NNJ towns you are attracted to? pharma, finance, managment?
keep relative time scales in mind. The last bubble took 3-5 years to go through its fastest period of decent and did not bottom for about 9 years. We are only 2 years into the downturn so far and any calls of bottom of stability at this point are grossly premature.
Also consider the exacerbating factor of unemployment. We are currently set to match or surpass the unemployment level of the early 80’s in a best case scenario.
This bubble took about 7 years to develop and is not going to be shaken out quickly. The key to this game is patience and to keep the time scale of this event in perspective.
Don’t Be Bearish on BJ’s
The wholesale club is set to grow sales by gaining share.
I LOVE the title of this Barrons Article. I have been watching stocks all my life and have seem plenty of bull and bear markets but JC it is always a bull market for BJ’s. Heck I rather take a spitter than nothing at all.
Looks like Gillett and Hicks were able to get a Making Premiership Football Affordable loan workout:
(ESPN)- “Liverpool co-owners George Gillett and Tom Hicks are thought to be close to agreeing a deal to renegotiate part of their £350m bank debts, thereby bringing some stability to the Anfield club.
A deadline of July 24 was looming over Gillett and Hicks to repay the Royal Bank of Scotland and US investment bank Wachovia the loans they took out to buy Liverpool in 2007.
However, the BBC reports that RBS have told Liverpool’s co-owners that they will be allowed to refinance their debts with a new agreement and a new repayment structure.
Liverpool have made no comment, though once a similar arrangement is brokered with Wachovia it is expected that the club will make an announcement confirming the deals.
Reports of the refinancing deal follow Gillett’s agreement at the weekend to sell his 80% stake in NHL ice hockey franchise the Montreal Canadiens in a deal worth around £330m.
That deal, combined with similar efforts by Hicks to sell assets of his own, including MLB baseball franchise and NHL outfit the Dallas Stars, appear to have convinced the banks the two owners have the necessary funding to meet future repayments on their Liverpool debts and to fund the club in the future.
The latest financial statement from Kop Holdings, the company through which Hicks and Gillett control Liverpool, show a loss for the year to August 2008 of £42.6m, over £30m of which was spent covering interest payments.”
gary,
easy highway access for all.
Thats always a huge bonus
Million-dollar homes collect cobwebs
“Currently, we have national home prices bottoming in 2011,” Bloomberg reported, quoting two analysts at J.P. Morgan, John Sim and Matthew Jozoff. “However, prices for more expensive homes may not bottom out until 2012, and ultimately result in peak-to- trough declines in excess of 60% (compared to 40% nationally).”
With fewer people able to afford these luxury homes, it’s obvious their supply will increase, causing a longer time for these homes to get sold. The collateral damage of home sales, especially high end ones, has been high.
High-end furniture store Ethan Allen Interiors Inc. (NYSE:ETH) was downgraded to junk by Standard & Poor’s on Tuesday, and a bevy other furniture stores have filed for bankruptcy. Meanwhile, luxury homebuilder Toll Brothers Inc. (NYSE:TOL) has been forced to slash prices by as much as 20% in New York and New Jersey while its losses have grown over the last two years. The operating loss of the company was $400.5 million during fiscal year 2008, compared to an operating loss of $4 million in 2007. - Gerald Magpily
#24 SG
The bill had faced opposition from towns that feared losing control over the process and senators who felt it was unfair to allow courts to reverse communities’ decisions.
What’s unfair to me is that most new construction is mcmansions, luxury condos, or 55+ communities. How about letting people have the chance to buy a modern ranch, instead of buying a 40+ year old ranch or cape with ancient wiring, potential asbestos and lead contamination, lousy insulation, etc.
Cry me a river towns.
First of all half the unemployed people I know are not even looking for jobs, I say 50% are mothers thrust into the work force believing they can do it all juggling three kids and a job and are now enjoying a year off with unemployement. Even singles with no other source of income are milking it. My friend who is smoking hot just crossed six months unemployed and she is still getting checks. If they cut her off last month, I know she would hostess, bartend, strip, sell blood, date rich old men whatever to get by. For now she is ok, but she is worrying about when unemployment runs out, right now with unemployment she dips into savings for one thousand each month, once that is over she has only enough cash for three or four months.
Heh, I thought I remembered Retsinas’ name. Seems he was pretty far behind the curve in seeing that it was a bubble.
http://housingpanic.blogspot.com/2007/06/flash-nicholas-retsinas-hp-hater-and.html
Now he’s acting like he was right all along. Typical.
Rensinas and Harvard JCHS missed the ball, completely.
Open space bill advances
TRENTON - Voters would decide in November whether the state should borrow $400 million to preserve farmland, open space, flood-prone land and historic sites, under a bill approved Monday by the budget committees in the Senate and Assembly.
Supporters said passage of the measure would allow the state to take advantage of low interest rates and land values during the economic recession.
“You can’t find a better time to go get land than right now,” said Sen. Stephen Sweeney, D-3rd Dist., a bill sponsor. “Markets are off, the housing market’s down - now’s the time to buy the land. You don’t want to lose this opportunity.”
Property tax rebates are back, but only for households with incomes under $75,000.
Regarding Harvard JCHS, some fun old posts. By the way, grim was right, Harvard and Anonymous were wrong.
Anonymous says:
June 12, 2006 at 9:37 pm (Edit)
The NY Times is posting this statement from a new Harvard University Joint Center for Housing Studies study:
“New household projections incorporating higher but more realistic immigrant assumptions suggest household growth will accelerate to 14.6 million over the next ten years from 12.6 million over the last ten. “Strong household growth, combined with record incomes and wealth, will lift housing investments to new highs next decade,” remarks Eric Belsky, executive director of the Joint Center.”
What say you, Grim?
And this one:
Anonymous says:
June 13, 2006 at 9:36 am (Edit)
Another quote, with a different slant, from the new Harvard study that Grim cited:
“New household projections incorporating higher but more realistic immigrant assumptions suggest household growth will accelerate to 14.6 million over the next ten years from 12.6 million over the last ten. “Strong household growth, combined with record incomes and wealth, will lift housing investments to new highs next decade,” remarks Eric Belsky, executive director of the Joint Center.”
Seems to me that this flies in the face of the Grim’s contention that we’re in for a serious crash.
Yes, I see that the Harvard Center for Housing Studies gets funding from some of the big players in real estate, but I’ve never seen anyone impugn their integrity and claim that their studies are biased before…so why now?
Bergen County GTG with easy access to all?
Ikea Cafe at route 17 and 4. 50 cent hot dogs and free drink refills.
Fitzgerald’s would be ideal for us and it is only like 1/2 a mile from the GSP exit 148. I would support the location for a GTG. Plus, why not support one of the 7 ratables in Glen Ridge. We’d be doing our part to lower property taxes in one of the highest taxed towns in NJ.
The Gator family heartily approves of a Glen Rige GTG.
Safe SG
let me get this strait…. Developers over built senior housing to the tune of a 16 year supply and now they want a bailout in the form of re zoning these even though they were built in the first place without consideration for increased infrastructure demands due to the senior designation? So who pays for the needed infrastructure upgrade?
what ever happened to going out of business due to poor business decisions? Oh wait i forgot this is the USSA and you only go out of business if you didnt kick back enough to the local politicians.
Macroeconomic forces? Macroeconomic forces!? Who needs such fundamental things like macroeconomic forces when one can have hope, and a strong belief that everything will be better — tomorrow.
Art Laffer Regarding Challenge & Bet Made With Peter Schiff on The Bill Maher Show
Okay, guys. Fess up, which one of you is this? I am pretty sure it is not John, as there is no velour.
Gator, is it Stu? Or maybe Gary of to an interview?
http://graphics8.nytimes.com/ads/marketing/mm09/movies_062209.jpg
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Peter Schiff was right (new) - 2002 to 2009 with exact dates.
“How about letting people have the chance to buy a modern ranch, instead of buying a 40+ year old ranch or cape with ancient wiring, potential asbestos and lead contamination, lousy insulation, etc”
Less profit per square foot, pure and simple. Land costs what land costs and the time necessary to build a ranch is not that much different from a fairly-larger home. And, people will gild the mcmansion and maybe a lilly but will not gild a 3 br 1,400 sq. ft ranch.
THe money is in extras, like a $500 feature that one charges $5,000 for because it looks “rich.”
Shore kinda a combination of how I look, I look like the guy on the horse but I am hung like the horse.
Here is some interesting news the Jets went through their whole season ticket holder waiting list and have not sold all the tickets for 2009. Interesting if the stadium is not a sell out the games get blacked out in NY. Wow imagine the 25 year fan who gave up his seats and said I will watch it at home and looks at blank screen. Even good seats like sec 311 row 8, sec 129 row 17 and sec 234 row 9 are available. Even more interesting they really did not offer to upgrade in 2009 existing seatholders too much and payment was already due. It seems jets figure if they had to sell seasons or individual tickets on ticketmaster easier to sell a row 8 or 9 then a last row. So the long term fan in bad seats will be luck t6o get 50 cents on a dollar for his seats. Some seats did sell I bought 4 but I bought front row seats so I can at least sell at face and hope for play-offs but if row 8 50 yard line is at face from jets unless you have rows 1-7 50 yard line good luck selling them. There are 40 rows in a section so I guess a lot of people are going to be mad.
Larry Summers to replace Ben Bernanke at the helm of the Fed?
God help us.
California has no money and few options
http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-cap22-2009jun22,0,7361678.column
Cindy,
What are you people doing with all my Franchise Tax Board payments?
Shore kinds looks like a picture I saw of you, except in your picture the horse was on top.
Shore Guy csays:
June 23, 2009 at 8:46 am
Okay, guys. Fess up, which one of you is this? I am pretty sure it is not John, as there is no velour.
Gator, is it Stu? Or maybe Gary of to an interview?
Grim,
At this point Suzanne Summers would be better.
She has been using that thighmaster for years and should be able to crush recalcitrant bankers and captains of industry into submission.
Joan Rivers on Howard Stern right now talking about her real estate troubles. She has a place in Connecticut (84 acres) that she said has been on the market for a year, and nobody has so much as made an offer.
“Nobody’s buying 2nd houses. Nobody.”
She also is trying to downsize from her NYC apartment and it’s been difficult, she said. she said she was hammered by losses in the stock market, which stinks she’s she’s about 75.
John,
That was meant for private viewing only and I resent your sharing it with everyone else.
This comes from an article about NASA’s new lunar probe, but I thought it sounded like it could apply to RE in the NY metro area:
“The collision will have an impact velocity of over 5,600 mph (9,000 km/h) and will send 350 tons of debris shooting 6 miles above”
http://www.allheadlinenews.com/articles/7015576547
“That was meant for private viewing only and I resent your sharing it with everyone else.”
Too late, the horse already posted it on his Facebook page.
B@stard! One cannot trust anyone anymore. Especially one with a reputation as a real stud.
BC,
What is the deal with ticket “drops” day of or soon before shows?
Ed McMahon, RIP
http://www.cnn.com/2009/SHOWBIZ/TV/06/23/obit.mcmahon/
Did Trump ever buy McMahon’s house and rent it to him?
safeashouses re: #30
why not build your own (buy a lot, and build the darned house at $150/sf)?
I have seen buildable lots (usually with a wreck of a house on it) trading way lower than peak where I live (down an easy 30% from peak, sometimes more).
Sastry,
Before you go in to do your tax appeal, it is important to practice the following look:
http://www.nj.com/hp/332/0527tony.jpg
This plus PowerPoint will enhance your effectiveness.
kettle1 #25,
We are only 2 years into the downturn so far
Prices in my ‘hood peaked 4 years ago, in the summer of 05.
#25 kettle: Th downward trend has definitely accelerated this year, even dramatically I would say;at least in my area.
18.Stu says:
June 23, 2009 at 8:09 am
ChiFi (from last night’s thread):
The Hat (as us locals call it), is still thriving.
Stu: did you hear that the corporation that owns Pizza Hut is dropping “Pizza” from the name. It is going to be known as “The Hut”. I don’t know if it is full or partial. Full would be similar to Kentucky Fried Chicken, which is simply now KFC.
KFC I guess to get rid of Fried….dropping Pizza so that they can broaden the menu?
Re: Active Adult Communities…
Some towns promised builders a lower tax rate on the homes in order to get the ratables. The thinking was that these seniors would not have any kids in the school system, thus a lower tax bill was justified.
How does the builder reconcile that now that there will be 3.2 kids in each of these units ??
Short sale in Basking Ridge!
http://www.trulia.com/property/33492731-77-Stonehouse-Rd-Basking-Ridge-NJ-07920
Sold for 389k in 2005. now listed at 369k.
After almost4 years of ownership and listing for 5% off last sales price it’s now a short sale. What’s up with that? Even a 30 year mtg with zero down
would only have a princple of 371 or so by now.
Sounds like a ticket bag holder
“Some seats did sell I bought 4 but I bought front row seats so I can at least sell at face and hope for play-offs”
One genuine upside to the 40 year old ranch, colonial, or cape is that it was solidly constructed. I have a couple of friends who live in mcmansions and what I call scaled-down mcmansions (i.e., newer houses that aren’t quite as large but in a similar style) and let me tell you, they’re crap! You wouldn’t believe how these are in serious need of repairs after 8 years.
Remember, most of them were constructed with glue as opposed to nails (i.e. where builders used to use a dozen nails it’s now 4 nails plus a lot of glue). The offgasing in these places is awful! The corner cutting in other areas of the houses is truly staggering–just to give one example, a friend of mine got “upgraded” cabinets and trim. Only a few weeks ago she realized that the “trim” in the more hard to reach areas is in fact paper, not wood! The list goes on. So, unless you have a builder with integrity who will not do a half assed job, you can keep new construction!
#35 kettle: I am not sure if sittin around is legit, or a realtor/bagholder pontificating that prices in North Jersey wont (even though they are) go down.
ricky_nu,
You mean something like this?
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/16-Fairfield-Ave_Warren-Twp_NJ_07059_1110006511
Well they talk about going green, That is one nice green roof!!!
Short sale in Basking Ridge!
http://www.trulia.com/property/33492731-77-Stonehouse-Rd-Basking-Ridge-NJ-07920
Sold for 389k in 2005. now listed at 369k.
After almost4 years of ownership and listing for 5% off last sales price it’s now a short sale. What’s up with that? Even a 30 year mtg with zero down
would only have a princple of 371 or so by now.
Link to that horse’s Facebook page.
http://tinyurl.com/nayyyyyyy
(link not safe for work, or mental health)
“I have a couple of friends who live in mcmansions and what I call scaled-down mcmansions (i.e., newer houses that aren’t quite as large but in a similar style) and let me tell you, they’re crap! You wouldn’t believe how these are in serious need of repairs after 8 years.”
Indeed.
Me and the Missus were thinking of building big (5000 SF+), but after looking at the tax implicatoins we are having second thoughts (typical house that size costs $35k+/yr, and we live in a town with lower mil rate than many). That nut will not go away, and will only go higher.
Now we are thinking of scaling down, so we can live comfortably in a well appointed house (with great features that will not contribute to the tax base, more energy efficient etc).
I suspect that this may be a trend going forward, and the market for over-sized “showoff” houses will be diminished (ala Hummers aren’t cool anymore, although I never really thought they were).
I suspect most of the mcmansions will be leveled before they’re 50 years old. They’ll be seen as the hideous, cheap environmental disasters they are.
It’s my fantasy that these will be replaced by eco-friendly communities, the likes of which are popping up all over the country but not, sadly, around here.
66
The base model mechanical systems in most new construction has also been pretty lousy over the past 10 years (at least).
HVAC and plumbing system subcontracts go to to the lowest bidder, with little or no regard to quality. The basis is essentially get it past inspection, and through the one year warranty. After that the builder could care less.
Also for fun check out the crap faucets, sinks, toilets, etc they use as the base model. Then check out what they charge for the upgrades. They use list price as their cost basis, even though they buy at 50% off list, plus the rebate manufacturers have to throw in if they want to do business.
63 - weren’t a lot of adult communities forced on towns through COAH?
#73 - It’s my fantasy that these will be replaced by eco-friendly communities, the likes of which are popping up all over the country but not, sadly, around here.
Do you have any links or info on these? I haven’t hear too much about them and you have me curious.
Shore/Safe re: new construction
Absolutely correct, land costs and profit differential inhibit affordable new construction.
Last new house I sold (2007) we put up for $166 ft2 construction costs on a half acre lot. Land cost and profit combined were $1.39m.
Assume a totally different market and drop land costs and profit expectation by 50%, for $700k total. Throw in soft costs of $70k. Take construction costs down to $125 ft2. You’re still over $1m for a new 1,900 ft2 ranch.
New affordable construction won’t happen unless it gets incentives from the govt, either economic or statutory relief (e.g. COAH).
74,
Yes, I know. For whatever reason, it seems like the contractors who get hired in these places, once the owner is in, also seem to be really bad. A year or two after my friend moved in she paid somebody an obscene amount for crown moulding. I’ve never seen such an awful job! An ape could have done better. But, she and her friends in the area all used this guy, he charged a lot and therefore it must be well done. Not!
Most builders practice a style of building I call, “Vegas”.
All facade, all very impressive at first glance.
But once you see it from any other angle, and get to know the workings of it, you realize that it is just smoke and mirrors.
Architecturally, these homes are designed in two dimensions, constrained to the front elevation. Devoid of any kind of architectural merit from any other angle. You all know what I’m talking about, 6 different materials on the facade (borrowed from 6 different architectural styles), impressive roof lines, etc etc. Step to the side and you see that the house is really just a big box. You’ll also notice that very little thought was put into the side, clad in vinyl, small windows, and zero architectural elements.
Significant cost is concentrated in those elements that are “show”, leaving little for where it really counts.
No quality of construction, at all. These are builders that are driven by profit, not pride.
76,
No, but you can just do a google search. I know there are a lot in Oregon, but other states are building them as well.
The town I moved out of last year doesn’t have a single development in its approx 13 square miles (unless you count a couple of small 20s and 50s neighborhoods). In fact, I’d be surprised if more than 20 houses were built there since 2000–and a major highway runs through its borders. For the past 19 years, the town and citizens have been fighting a proposed development, which after being sold several times eventually became a proposed senior development of 450+ houses. That would double to triple the population. Of course the town lost and, because of COAH, the development was approved. now that the market has tanked perhaps they have a few more years without a development but I’m sure its coming…
“No quality of construction, at all. These are builders that are driven by profit, not pride.”
You are correct, sir! I have offended many a person with similar comments. Who cares, though? These places are a blight on the landscape and more and more people are realizing it. We’re essentially living in ancient Rome without the skills.
#79 - So the houses are designed and built to sell, not live in.
My personal preference is for craftsman houses.
re: GTG
Train town please. NJ drivers are bad enough without a bunch of drunk r.e. bears on the road.
A buddy has a McMansion in Jackson, while it has some nice features the areas that the builder cut corners are awful. Cheap molding, awful fixtures, french doors to no where, I can only imagine what is behind the walls. My favorite show piece on the typical McMansion, brick, stucco, or stone facade in the front of the home, cheap vinyl wrapping the rest of the monster. To me nothing says wealth like vinyl siding, blech!
[83] tosh
Yeah, I love that style.
My place in Brigadoon is about 80 years old, and looks tiny from the street, so it would fail that vegas test miserably. The lot is long and thin, and the house goes back. I think the space was just enough and laid out well. I didn’t care that it doesn’t show spectactularly from the street.
I am not uplighting my bushes or facade, which I consider the height of vanity.
“To me nothing says wealth like vinyl siding, blech!”
You said it! It’s all facade! (And those are freakin’ ugly!)
If we pick Fitzgeralds in Glen Ridge, the Glen Ridge station (Montclair Boonton Line) is only about 2 blocks away.
interesting potential delayed effect due to the poor quality of recent construction:
houses built in the 60’s and 70’s sell just fine today ven if they need to be upgraded, as the core of the building is sound and well constructed. these homes have seen about a 1% YOY appreciation over the long term.
But hat happens to the hiuge 3 of new homes buitl during this bubble run up? In 30 years would anyone touch a mcmansion built in 2005 for anything other then a deep discount? We may now see a new appreciation dimension on recent construction do to the lack of quality and soundness. will the new paradigm be a negative appreciation rate for 2000 vintage homes due to the poor quality and accelerated rate of decay?
Will the period of construction of a home become a selling point in 10 years,
Having 6 older siblings, all of whom are homeowners, I can concur with most of what you are all saying about new construction. The vinyl siding on my sisters 10-year old home in the Princeton area is sagging tremendously and their basement floods. The trim around their garage is rusting and their originally built fireplace was so inefficient that they just rebuilt it. My brother’s home down in Moorestown needs more maintenance than my 1923 Colonial in Montclair. I often point out to Gator how poorly constructed these new homes are as we drive by developments. I know it drives her crazy, but not as much as a brickfaced home does to me that has vinyl on the other three sides.
“Will the period of construction of a home become a selling point in 10 years”
No way. They will be seen as a miserable mistake. I’m sure they will not only be seen by the general public as ugly, but the environmental issues that come part and parcel with them will override anything people may like about them. Maybe a few will be preserved as examples of the Dark Ages of design.
3b, BC and others have told how they had to wait 10 years to break even in the last bubble. What happens now that the poor construction comes into play and people begin to demand quality instead of quantity in housing due to a move toeards frugalness. Some of the current bagholders may be doomed to davy jones locker as the stone facade with glued on vinyl siding will see an increasing negative value as well as an increasing maintenance costs to the owner.
They may not be holding a bag, but wearing concrete shoes
Re: low building quality
My personal favorite is the Mediterranean or English Manor style with stucco. You know those windows framed by stone? Styrofoam dipped in glue and tacked on the exterior. $1.5m of construction costs, $2.5m+ purchase price, and main elements of the exterior of your house are styrofoam and glue.
Ewelle,
No way. They will be seen as a miserable mistake. I’m sure they will not only be seen by the general public as ugly, but the environmental issues that come part and parcel with them will override anything people may like about them. Maybe a few will be preserved as examples of the Dark Ages of design.
that is exactly what i am saying. It may become a selling point that you home was built prior to 2000 and thew MCmansion boom
safeashouses says:
June 23, 2009 at 9:20 am
ricky_nu,
You mean something like this?
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/16-Fairfield-Ave_Warren-Twp_NJ_07059_1110006511
Why do everybody keep bashing this listing?
Assuming no major structural and undeground plumbing issues, this house is by far best deal I have seeing in warren in the last 5 years.
After putting 100K into the house it will be priced at 250 (i would offer 150 for it and see), with EVERYTHING new in it.
Look at other prices in Warren. So for someone looking at buying starter home in that area, it might be a good deal.
I’ll never forget the first time I saw a McMansion. Boy, was I appalled. (My background is in Art History, so you can imagine the shock!)
CNBC reporting that realtors are giving “unrealistically low” appraisals which are well below the sale value.
“CNBC reporting that realtors are giving “unrealistically low” appraisals which are well below the sale value.”
Is that right? Hmm…I have not seen that around here!
I dunno, I guess I’m a sap. I rent a 1950’s split level and I love it- especially the siding. I don’t think it’s vinyl though, it’s probably aluminum. It just screams Wonder Years to me.
Even though it’s old and has a pink bathroom that I desperately want to reglaze, I’d love to buy it one day and spiff it up a bit.
89 - “Will the period of construction of a home become a selling point in 10 years”
Its always been a selling point for pre 1945 construction.
I would agree that more recent construction with its lack of quality, distance from things, and poor generic design aestetic will continue to drive 50s, 60s and even 70s houses into that pre 1945 desirability category.
my house was built pre 1790 with a newfangled 1870 addition.
Well, it’s at least good, solid construction! That pink bathroom has lasted a long time, hasn’t it?
whew.
just heard that the house around the corner from us sold … for a little more than what we bought for. our house is bigger (300 sq ft) and we have more yard (1/4 acre).
also, we saw the pics online and they had terrible taste in wallpaper so they’ll need to yank all that down and paint. (plus, those people had a couple of BIG dogs, not sure if that means new carpets).
our real estate agent (we still talk to her, she’s nice and plugged in) said that our neighbor’s house could be on the market soon, seeing as one adult just passed away due to cancer. (we were on vacation, totally missed it)
but none of you NJ re: people should out here … we need a not-that-savvy family to come in and overpay!
Ruggles,
You are lucky!
Shore Guy-RE: Springsteen ticket drops
For all his shows Bruce sets aside LOTS of tickets for his guests, band guests, record co. and various other business clients and guest, and anyone who is associated with Thrill Hill Productions through out the year- for instance the caterer and crew of his rehearsals. Sometimes these tickets are given away and sometimes they are sold at face value to the above people.
Before the show any of the artist’s holds that are not used are then released at the box office and sold at FACE VALUE. Depending on the city this number can be quite high. It keeps lots of tickets from being scalped.
Because lots of Bruce fans know about the drop they all started showing up before shows for tickets. The crowds became so big that they started a “drop list” where people would come and get their nasmes on a list and the tickets would be sold in order. Thrill hill became aware that it was not fair to people who had to be at work, school or elsewhere in the morning so they started a lottery system where one picks up a bracelet with a numbeer, at the end of the day a number is pulled from the hat as the starting number.
Most major artist use this method. Even Broadway shows will sell the “artists holds” right before the show.
Fitzgerald’s. Good location. If we get Skeptic and one other lawyer, we can convene a bench at the bar (bad lawyer pun). Anyway, barring unforseen events, Nom Deplume is IN.
Now for real estate news:
“Washington, DC (June 22, 2009) — The Mortgage Bankers Association today lowered its forecast of mortgage originations in 2009 to $2.03 trillion, a drop of over $700 billion from its March forecast. $84 billion of the drop is due to lower purchase originations and the rest is due to lower rate/term refinancings and very low volumes in the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP). MBA is now forecasting $737 billion in purchase originations and $1,297 billion in refinance originations. “
Wellie- not a missing or cracked tile to be found on any surgace including the pink and black floor.
I’d say yech but they sure new how to make sure that ugly stuff stay put. I’d never remove the tub though because it’s so solid. New tubs feel like the plastic pools for toddlers you lay out in the back yard.
From MarketWatch:
U.S. May existing-home sales up 2.4%
Falling prices boosted sales of pre-owned homes in May to the highest level since October, the National Association of Realtors estimated Tuesday. Existing-home sales rose 2.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.77 million, the trade group said. Sales have risen in three of the past four months, and are down 3.6% in the past year. The sales increase was less than the 4.85 million rate expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. The median sales price fell 16.8% in the past year to $173,000, the third largest year-over-year decline on record. Inventories of unsold homes fell 3.5% to 3.80 million, representing a 9.6-month supply at the May sales pace.
My biggest problem with new construction is the size of the lot builders put them on. An 1/8th of an acre should not contain a 3,200 square foot house. It’s nothing more than the builders extracting every penny from their land with no concern for the quality of lif in the neighborhood. Some of these places remind me of moving all your stuff into a storage locker. Everything is touching each other.
I can fix or upgrade stuff over time but your dinky lot is stuck forever
leftwing says:
June 23, 2009 at 9:57 am
Re: low building quality
My personal favorite is the Mediterranean or English Manor style with stucco. You know those windows framed by stone? Styrofoam dipped in glue and tacked on the exterior. $1.5m of construction costs, $2.5m+ purchase price, and main elements of the exterior of your house are styrofoam and glue.
It is called Stuccofoam!!!
Funny part about it - once you have it on your house - you will always need contractor do do repairs - with regular old stucco-houses if it is chipped, or or small crack developed - you just mix-up some cement, cover up the defect, let it dry and paint - it is fixed.
With new stuccofoam - you can not do that.
And yes - I have gag-reflex when I see brick facade and vinyl box on other 3 sides.
Great observation from Grim – Front would have big nice windows, but sides and back hardly have any!!! it reminds me very much of little kids Doll houses.
safeashouses -64
As for that house Basking Ridge on the market for a loss- Map it on Trulia and set the map to satellite. Do you think the buyer thought the quarry was going to disappear after he bought it?
From the AP:
May existing home sales rose 2.4 percent
A real estate group says sales of previously occupied homes rose modestly from April to May, the third monthly increase this year, but signs of any housing recovery are fragile at best.
The National Association of Realtors said Tuesday that home sales rose 2.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.77 million last month, from a downwardly revised pace of 4.66 million in April.
Prices, meanwhile, dropped by 16.8 percent from a year ago.
The results missed economists’ expectations. Sales had been expected to rise to an annual pace of 4.81 million units, according to Thomson Reuters.
The median sales price plunged to $173,000 from $207,900 in the same month last year, but up from $166,600 in April.
Best age of home is between the wars. Homes build before WWI often lack bathrooms, modern kitches, oil or gas heat, lacked closet space and had low basements.
Homes built after WWI but before WWII were high quality, hand built, great workmenshop and were build with solid bathrooms, kitchens, plaster walls and electricity.
Homes built after WWII were slapped together pre-fab junk for returning GIs.
Homes built in 1960-2009 were just toll brothers type junk slapped together or spec houses build by the local HS dropout with cheap materials and untrained labor.
Construction quality of homes in the U.S. will be a problem when we return. Every house I’ve rented over here for the last 30 years has had zero maintenance and repair problems. They use stone and concrete for the walls, marble for the floors, and clay tiles for the roof. A German friend of ours who recently bought in Tampa was surprised to learn she can hang none of her chandeliers from her plasterboard ceiling and none of her paintings from her plasterboard walls. Floors aren’t level, corners don’t meet, and worst is, she paid a bubble price for it.
#111 - Prices, meanwhile, dropped by 16.8 percent from a year ago.
You would think that would be the headline.
Ref 108. We have a friend in Va. who has a house in a development of micro-lots. He set up the grill and melted the side of his house.
“700 NYC teachers are paid to do nothing”
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090622/ap_on_re_us/us_rubber_rooms
Remember, it’s for the children.
grim (47)-
Here’s Oblamma’s secret weapon Fed chair nominee:
http://tinyurl.com/lu5×5t
Never gets old.
John,
I agree with you about the houses between the wars–they are great. I disagree about the houses built from the ’60’s and ’70’s. I know many, many people who have houses in developments from these eras who have no problems at all with the construction. Some are original owners, others are the fourth or fifth owner–across the board they have no real problems. Quality really took a dive after the 80’s era of the quick buck.
Don’t forget allot of those McMansions built later in the boom were built with Chinese drywall. We imported something like 550 million pounds of the stuff.
The Chinese drywall may have coal ash in it as a filler that releases carbon disulfide, sulfur dioxide, and hydrogen sulfide, plus some radioactive dust as well.
Gonna cost you 25k per 1,000 sq ft to rip out all the drywall and replace it, plus all the cost of replacing all of the stuff that may have been destroyed due to the hydrogen sulfide like the central Air due to the corrosiveness of Hydrgen Sulfide to metals such as iron, steel, copper and brass.
People love these big boxes! If they didn’t, then why would they have been built? The builders were responding to demand for larger homes with a rich look and feel. The models are painted and decorated beautifully. Compare the experience of looking at a new decorated model to looking at a split with old carpeting, a moldy basement etc. and the allure of the new is understandable. The old house almost always looks like an endless project.
How about recycled lumber? Wonder what the buyer would have thought had they been on the construction site and saw timbers being used from teardowns.
Sean says:
June 23, 2009 at 10:25 am
Don’t forget allot of those McMansions built later in the boom were built with Chinese drywall. We imported something like 550 million pounds of the stuff.
Sean,
HS gas is poisonous as well and very bad for you.
Also dont forget about the radioactive granite counters off gassing radon!!!
Renter,
that is another symptom f the dumbing down of america and the rise of the consumer. A thorough evaluation of the 2 different properties would go well beyond the outward look
379 grim:Most builders practice a style of building I call, “Vegas”.
Does this one below, (you know it is my favorite) qualify as “Vegas”?
http://www.njmls.com/cf/details.cfm?mls_number=2915862&id=999999
3b you should buy that place already your obviously in love with it ; ) Who wouldn’t want to spend nearly a million bucks to live on a zero lot in River Edge Buy now or be priced out forever. Real Estate only goes up. I think I am starting to suffer from bubble derangement syndrome to borrow a term from my looney radio faux conservative friends.
Ofcourse, you are right but I was just pointing out what people want. If I could afford a new house, I would want a smaller house with a really smart design. I don’t see that on the market.
Minimum lot size zoning is partly to blame. Everyone wants to be the last inhabitant of the out migration i.e. “I moved out here to get away from the congestion but I will vote in every initiative to make it more expensive for the next person to do so.”
safeashouses -116
Most special education teachers fall in the same category.
Speaking of education, the Supreme Court raised your property taxes yesterday. Roberts, Kennedy, and Alito were all part of the majority.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/23/education/23special.html?ref=education
Renter,
When you say “people,” we need to keep in mind that a very small percentage of the general population lives in these. Even though there was a boom, in this area, there still aren’t many per square mile. Now, if you go to Texas, that’s a different story.
The people I know who love these things really have no taste at all. It’s all about “looking” rich, with no real understanding of what constitutes quality as opposed to glitz.
re#122 kettle1 - People today release allot of Hydrogen Sulfide in farts do to copious consumption of high fructose corn syrup. The small intestine can only absorb a limited amount of fructose each day, what remains then passes into the colon where it is fermented by bacteria to produce Hydrogen Sulfide sometimes in very large quantities.
It will be hard to tell what really killed them corn syrup or the drywall.
John and Ewallie,
I would love to buy a pre WW2 colonial with unpainted chestnut molding and the original architectural details still there.
I saw a gorgeous renovated one in Berkeley Heights on almost half an acre for 470k back in 07. It was right next to the tracks though and out of our price range.
In Re construction/building: Based on what I’ve researched in Philly the only way to acquire a home at true market value is to build yourself. Now the obvious challenge in this is finding the land in a good enough neighborhood where land acquisition is affordable. I’m currently working with an architecture researching a lot that is being sold w/ plans at 250k (I’m offering 150k w/o plans). My intended construction costs are in the $100-125 a sf range but at $150 a foot you can do some amazing things. I don’t want to get in over my head since this is where I’ll be living so I’m sticking to my guns. At 2,000 sf my total cost will be in the 350k range. Anything on the market currently in this neighborhood at comparable square footage is in the 500-600k range.
“If you build it…they will come.”
#125 painhrtz: They drop that baby another 100k, and I will be all over it.
It has no back yard, but who cares. I can BBQ right on the front lawn.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/31480081
128
I see your point. My point is that McMansions are what people prefer.
#119 Sean,
Greenspan would call the Chinese drywall a positive thing for the economy with the amount of money that would be spent to fix up those 100k plus houses contaminated with Chinese drywall.
The bozo said (I think after New Orleans got wiped out) something about hurricanes having a positive impact on the economy due to the money spent on rebuilding.
In what universe did anyone think chinese drywall was a good idea. That was just a lawsuit waiting to happen, actually most chinese made goods are. As for homes, my parents home was built in 78-79 I think and it has had some minor problems mostly with HVAC, but nothing compared to newer homes built even in the late 90’s. Modern home building techniques are really interesting and work quite well, i.e more efficient etc the real problem is unskilled labor and corners being cut(Materials applied in the wrong places, faulty cheap materials being used). I think modern home building takes more of a throw away concept than before, it is not really built to last. The crime is that it would not cost much more to make it better. I know a new home builder who builds homes that are comparable to older homes, nice architectural designs, copper and slate roofs, stone work, antique fixtures and pieces imported from europe to be built into the homes. But all of this costs serious money, his homes probably average 3-4 million when sold, he builds mansions not mcmansions.
Renter,
Again, my point is you really can’t gauge what “people” prefer. I’ll wager not one person living in Princeton Boro wants a McMansion. There are still people with some taste out there, and we have no way of knowing what percent of the general population wants a McMansion.
134 - I think people prefer what they’re told to prefer. in general.
#134 renter:I see your point. My point is that McMansions are what people prefer.
They are what some people prefer. But it does not change the fact that they are in a word jokish.
138–
You’re right. I always overestimate people, but most are not thinkers.
People, prefer new, big, flashy. Not that they don’t like old homes but many people fear that they are getting into a project. Most people aim to do what society tells them is good, smart, etc. People by default follow a herd mentality, society tells them, this is desirable they follow.
Hey Clotpoll,
I noticed your Staats farm listing. That’s not the place you mentioned the other day where the owner was “dressed to the nines” is it?
I know somebody that has the identical house over on Thoroughbred Dr. Yours is wwaaayy more pimped out though.
In regards to home building…
I will be interested toi see what the long term outcome of the use of laminated structural components is in 10- 20 years. On paper they look great, but their failure mode also tends to be catastrophic without much in between from what i have read on them. Then you have to ask yourself if you are sure of the quality of the laminate product? The specs are for product meeting a certain level of production quality.
I know this question has been answered before but am not sure how to locate find the answer-
Im currently renting like most of the people on this blog, but may have to move due to SO’s job. Does NJ law allow me to move without penalty or do I have to pay out my rent for the rest of the contract period?
Thanks in advance!
Re: Construction Quality
There’s also a lack of talent out there to build something of quality. Like someone wrote above - most are high school idiots who couldn’t get into university, or even a trade school for that matter. We’re also relying on immigrants to build our homes. Most of these guys are just laborers and know nothing about the trade.
I laugh when I see these guys today with their waxed Ford F250 diesels, 20″ rims, chromed out, lifted, etc with a single ladder in the bed. These meatheads care more about their toys than producing a quality product. But I guess this is the age we live in.
If I ever get the chance, I’d love to work with the guys from “This Old House” to build a home. They do some impressive stuff.
144
I believe if you break your lease they just keep your security deposit.
141
Exactly
Unemployment is down. First the site tells me my ss# isn’t on file, then I get a message to try again an hour later. I try dialing in, punch in all the info, then get told they can’t process my claim and call back later. I try the web again after an hour, and get the message my ss# isn’t on file.
Green shoots? how frigging hard is it for unemployment to process an existing claim. i really think the system is designed so people give up.
re#146 - ???? er, no
If you move out before the end of the lease, the landlord may be able to hold you responsible for the rent that becomes due until the apartment or house is rented again, or until the lease ends.
For example, if you move out during July and your lease ends on October 31, you could be held responsible for the rents of August, September, and October. But if another tenant moves in on September 1, then the landlord may sue you only for August’s rent. This does not apply if the landlord agrees in writing to let you move before the lease ends.
If a tenant moves out before the lease ends, the landlord must try to re-rent the apartment. This means that in order to recover rent for the months left on the lease, the landlord must prove that he or she tried to find another tenant but could not. The landlord must show, for example, that he or she immediately began advertising the apartment and interviewing tenants. Cite: Sommer v. Kridel, 74 N.J. 446 (1977).
More on the topic here.
http://www.lsnjlaw.org/english/placeilive/irentmyhome/tenantsrights/chapterfive/
There is house going up next door. The real shame is the joists - instead of 2 x 10s they used two 1 x 3s and pressed board between them in an I-beam design. Is that the norm for new homes these days?
#148
Now I get the temporary unavailable, try again in an hour line.
Watch the mother fer will be down all day, I’ll try again tomorrow and be told FU you should have applied for it yesterday you jobless pos.
Gerry @ 150 - Are you talking about the McMillan joists? Those things are far better than the 2 x 10s. No bowing whatsoever.
149–
Sean, I live in a garden apartment complex and have known several who have broken their leases. They say here they keep the security deposit–that’s it.
Gerry,
that is one of the types of laminates i was referring to. On paper and under ideal conditions they perform very well. but i wonder what we will really see as real world conditions take their toll.
Kettle, I for one think laminated components will prove themselves superior to traditional wood in every way. They are way better for forestry management, that is for sure. I think the key is buying a quality product from a reputable manufacturer. Modern materials engineering and adhesives are quite good. Plywood is a good example there are 50 year old homes built with plywood that is still holding together, and it made home building much cheaper. There will always be failures but I think that going forward it will be very effective.
3b nice build one of those outdoor kitchens in the front, you start your own roadside BBQ to support the mortgage.
Safeashouses same people want to run healthcare. Imagine this scenario: approval of a life saving procedure in which the Doc has to wait for the healthcare administration rubber stamper to sign off but he/she is on their union mandated 30th break of the day and the website is down. Patient dies prior to approval or develops mutiple secondary issues which are life threatening and could have been averted if the doc was allowed to perform their job. The government has trouble doing anything well with the exception of finding new and inventive ways to tax us of course.
Sean Ew,
as a renter who has broken a lease or two ( and no other expertise) the land lord generally just keeps the security deposit, but does have legal recourse.
Jcer,
I agree that laminates have potential, i think the trump card is whether the quality of production is maintained or is it outsourced to china?
From Bloomberg:
U.S. Home Prices Drop 6.8 Percent in April as Foreclosures Rise
U.S. home prices fell 6.8 percent in April from a year earlier as rising unemployment and record foreclosures kept buyers out of the market.
Measured monthly, the average price fell 0.1 percent from March, the Federal Housing Finance Agency in Washington said today. The number was projected to drop 0.4 percent in April, according to the median forecast of 15 economists in a Bloomberg survey.
The housing slump has reduced the median price of an existing home 26 percent from the July 2006 peak, pushing affordability to near record levels. Prospective buyers are now being constrained by rising mortgage rates, the highest unemployment since 1983 and concern the housing rebound will be anemic.
jcer,
i am just skeptical at this point due to the general construction trends of late
Anybody heard of Lifespan when this homes are designed?
Just like the commercial says built to last your lifetime.You buy the house at 30 or 40,it is designed to last 30 to 50 years.You will be 80 to 90 by the end of life.
Tear down put a new one.The cycle starts over again.
http://content.mkt32.net/ra/5303/2009/06/4140264/images_diagram.gif
forgot to add: another house just went on the market in our neighborhood (less than 3 weeks ago) and it’s ‘under contract.’
a bit surprised that it was gobbled up quick - probably a panicked buyer falling for the ‘ol interest rate trap.
oddly, they asked for exactly their zillow estimate. not sure if they got it. the house is much bigger than ours (by 1500 sq feet) and looks pretty nice.
i dont think the value of ours has dropped yet, but by the end of the year it might be down (depending on comps). i know grim said not to do this after you buy, but it’s tough!
re: #150 & Joists
Yes - that is typical, they use these wooden “I beams” regularly these days, I think they are lighter, use recycled wood (the pressboard part) etc. From en engineering perpective, they bear the load as well as a 2×10
from a practical perspective, I have visions of years of toilet overflows (or whatever) killing the laminate adhesive, causing premature structural problems down the road. I don’t know for sure….I ould like to think they have thought of that, but experience tells me otherwise
GerryAdams,
There are actually some benefits to those wood I-beams.
They can span longer distances without bearing walls or columns (ie, larger, more open rooms are possible).
They don’t shrink or warp as much as regular wood joists.
They are actually stronger than normal wood, and will allow a more even and level floor.
http://www.ilevel.com/floors/f_TJI_joists.aspx
If you let a plumber run wild on them, though, cutting holes in them haphazardly, then you will have problems.
The issue with laminates is the production quality. As for exposure to real world conditions, if you look at epoxy based boat building you can see 30-40 years of use on wood and glue based structures and the strength and performance of these composite materials speak for themselves. The exposure to working stresses and the marine environment are at a minimum a 100 times more severe than any house experiences. Provided the materials are designed properly, made properly and applied properly, the results are impressive. The problem is the push to make it unrealistically inexpensive.
[145] SS
Yeah, Tommy Silva and the boys do good work. But I expect no less from Bostonians.
“Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast rose 3.9 percent to an annual level of 800,000 in May, but are 10.1 percent below a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $243,600, which is 12.5 percent below May 2008.”
Given that we live in a Hoboken condo, we are anti-McMansionites (I know many of you have issues with Hoboken condos, but that’s irrelevant here).
We have 2 sets of friends and 3 sets of relatives that told us we needed at least 4000 square feet to raise a family. The friends are now living in McMansions that are underwater, one poor relative may be foreclosed upon (though it’s hard to feel sorry for them, they lived the good life while they could and planned nothing for the rainy day that came), and the other relatives are probably really glad we ignored their dumb advice.
116 Safe - We have “rubber rooms” in NJ, we just call them the “central office”.
Our principals are tenured as principals. So if they suck as administrators, you can’t demote them and send them back to the classroom. And since you can’t fire them, you create a new “District Coordinator of Parent Activities” or “Director of School/Community Relations” position in the central office.
I read an interesting criticism of laminate/structural lumber, written by a fireman. Most of it was anecdotal, so take it with a grain of salt. Also the kind of thing that the Clearcut Pine 2×8 lobby would love to see banned in building code.
His concern was that I-joists quickly lose structural stability in a fire. (yes, I understand that all wood does, houses really are made of matchsticks). The concern was that time to rescue a trapped occupant was significantly shorter in a home with this type of construction. In addition, this type of construction could potentially put firefighters at risk. Remember that truss roof buildings carry warning signs for similar reasons.
#169 - We have 2 sets of friends and 3 sets of relatives that told us we needed at least 4000 square feet to raise a family.
That’s true you know. DFYS will force you to add on to the house if you have a kid and the place is only 3200 sq ft.
172 - I’d rather let dyfs take the kid.
I’ll give you this, I am a big believer in engineered wood, but I would not sheath my home in OSB and even though those I-Beams perform better I would probably go with either regular wood or LVL’s(Very expensive) for my joists. The i-beams really won’t survive in the elements but I can tell you first hand LVL and LSL is tough stuff. Ideally the interior materials should not be exposed to moisture, but it happens. Those I-Beams are not really designed with that in mind, with OSB on the floor if it gets wet enough to ruin it I have a lot of other problems(Like wood floors buckling, ruined carped, poping tiles) and it is so cheap that it doesn’t matter that I have to replace it.
Is it DFYS or DYFS?
dept of youth and family services. i think. as long as you pronounce it diefiss
Wrt the GTG,
I’ve been to Fitzgerald’s several times. It’s within walking distance of a friend’s house. I watched michael phelps win his last gold medal there…pre bong hits.
I’ve never been when it was crowded though, which may be a good thing. To those planning on going, keep in mind that it’s right next to the police hq so no funny business.
If you let a plumber run wild on them, though, cutting holes in them haphazardly, then you will have problems.
There’s code rules to follow when drilling through the beams in regards to how close to the edge; how large of a hold, etc… The code inspector will be looking out for those to ensure that the structural integrity of the beams or any support wall is not compromised.
My dad (as a plumber) prefers not to drill through beams at all, in my house we actually made a 4″ drop to run the plumbing & heating pipes across the house without having to drill through one beam. It was done in a manner that you couldn’t even tell that a drop exists..
Electricians on the other hand will turn most beams to swiss cheese!
Richie
ICF with inlaid plumbing and electrical conduit….
chicagofinance says:
Your comment is awaiting moderation.
June 23, 2009 at 12:22 pm
unmod
With re: McMansions; I think the heating costs alone will kill these things starting about 5 years from now.
kettle1 (143)
Call it Ikea quality, although that may be generous. I wonder if they’ll look like my old sagging entertainment unit.
jcer (155)
That’s the problem though - quality product from a reputable manufacturer. (Second problem being skills of the contractors.) I remember reading that in Hoboken (maybe it was someone here?) one condo contractee repeatedly visited the site and found evidence of inferior materials being substituted.
This reminds me - anyone know if it was Knauf or another party responsible for the sulfurous drywall?
Happy Daze (182): “I wonder if they’ll look like my old sagging entertainment unit.”
Perhaps some Viagra could help you with your problem?
#148, safehouses:
That happened to me the day I was trying to let NJ unemployment know that I had started working again. It was really, really frustrating because I was now at a new job and couldn’t get through during “business hours” to let them know my status. I think I finally just left work a bit early and incredibly got through on the phone line around 5:30. If it gets really bad you can always go to the nearest unemployment office and resolve it in person. Not fun , no matter how it plays out.
182
Knauf was sued by Lennar for the Chinese drywall used in Florida.
Happy Daze (182): “I wonder if they’ll look like my old sagging entertainment unit.”
Perhaps the “Blue Pill” could help you with your personal problem?
“We have 2 sets of friends and 3 sets of relatives that told us we needed at least 4000 square feet to raise a family.”
This mentality drives me berserk. It’s an insult to most of the world, for a start.
When my daughter arrived, family jumped on us about living in an apartment. Last I checked, there are plenty of healthy, happy, and highly cultured people who grew up in apartments 1/3 of the size I’m in, who still choose to live where they grew up–London, Paris, New York, etc.
176 Ruggles - the new acronym is actually DCF - Department of Children and Families.
It’s kinda like when they renamed “Freehold Area Hospital” “CentraState Medical Center”. New name, but same crappy service.
164.ricky_nu says:
June 23, 2009 at 11:53 am
re: #150 & Joists
Yes - that is typical, they use these wooden “I beams” regularly these days, I think they are lighter, use recycled wood (the pressboard part) etc. From en engineering perpective, they bear the load as well as a 2×10
from a practical perspective, I have visions of years of toilet overflows (or whatever) killing the laminate adhesive, causing premature structural problems down the road. I don’t know for sure….I ould like to think they have thought of that, but experience tells me otherwise
That issue exists with both I-Joists and related Oriented Strand Board (OSB), used in lieu of Plywood. As long as they never get wet, they maintain integrity. Another issue with them though is chemical emissions from all the glue used in the OSB parts. Also, try and nail something to an I-Joist, versus a 2×10. A house I owned in New Providence (1956) actually had wood board sheathing on walls & roof, no plywood, and real cedar siding. Forty years later it had same integrity as new. The newer homes though make for interesting chemical fires, as they are a high percentage of glue.
Confused,
should mcmansions and most other new homes come with one of these on the building for firemen?
http://tinyurl.com/kng6wp
Sean says:
June 23, 2009 at 10:47 am
re#122 kettle1 - People today release allot of Hydrogen Sulfide in farts do to copious consumption of high fructose corn syrup. The small intestine can only absorb a limited amount of fructose each day, what remains then passes into the colon where it is fermented by bacteria to produce Hydrogen Sulfide sometimes in very large quantities.
It will be hard to tell what really killed them corn syrup or the drywall.
Fructose does not have sulfur in it….
How does it produces Hydrogen sulfide??
#112
“Best age of home is between the wars. Homes build before WWI often lack bathrooms, modern kitches, oil or gas heat, lacked closet space and had low basements.
Homes built after WWI but before WWII were high quality, hand built, great workmenshop and were build with solid bathrooms, kitchens, plaster walls and electricity.”
totally agree. best case scenario is to get a 1930s house that has updated wiring, heating and plumbing.
EWellie says:
Hence why you need the space, your children has grown up cultured, now a culture belongs in a yogurt but in NJ there is no need for culture.
June 23, 2009 at 1:01 pm
“We have 2 sets of friends and 3 sets of relatives that told us we needed at least 4000 square feet to raise a family.”
This mentality drives me berserk. It’s an insult to most of the world, for a start.
When my daughter arrived, family jumped on us about living in an apartment. Last I checked, there are plenty of healthy, happy, and highly cultured people who grew up in apartments 1/3 of the size I’m in, who still choose to live where they grew up–London, Paris, New York, etc.
AL 190,
bacteria that live in the human intestines produce hydrogen sulfide (H2S). That is one of the reasons that flatulence smells bad
Yun added. “Some contracts are falling through from faulty valuations that keep buyers from getting a loan.”
http://money.cnn.com/2009/06/23/real_estate/existing_home_sales/index.htm?postversion=2009062310
What a clown, when appraisal were fraudulently high, this guy had no problem with them.
re #190 - Al - You can easily overload on fructose, and all of the HFCS in our foods today in not helping.
Monosaccharides like fructose and are the only carbohydrates that can be absorbed into the bloodstream through the intestinal lining.
Fructose malabsorption or fructose intolerance is the issue that causes the gas and bloating, it can be found in perhaps as much as 40% of the population.
25-50g of Fructose per sitting can be absorbed from a single meal, people that are fructose intolerance absorb less which causes the remaiming fructose to pass on from the small intestine to the colon where fructose is then metabolized by normal colonic bacteria to short chain fatty acids and the gases hydrogen, carbon dioxide and methane.
For example a cup of chopped tomatoes has 2.5 grams of fructose, a can of regular (non-diet) HFCS soda supplies 23 grams, and a super-size HFCS soda has about 62 grams.
If you can absorb naturally 30 grams of fructose in one sitting and you drink allot of soda chances are you will be bloadted and gassy.
Doctors can test for this condition using a simple hydrogen detection test from a sample taken from your breath.
Also on HFCS - My dog was very stinky, he would lay down after eating and literally stink up the whole house. It turns out many dog foods are loaded with HFCS, and a dog sized portion can contain a hundred grams of Fructose way more than any dog could digest normally.
Lol I started a new topic for forums - Flatulence….
My comment was to point out that fermentation/bacterial digestion of of fructose can not produce H2S…
It can produce gaseous products but not H2S or thiols.
welcome to the NJ real estate, guns, wine and fart report.
New Jersey Flatulence Report
F latulence
A nd
R real estate
T hread
AL,
The metabolism of HFCS alone cannot, but if it promotes the grwoth or metabolic rate of sulfur reducing bacteria then you could have an associated increase in H2S.
From Reuters:
Number of mass layoffs in U.S. ties record
The number of mass layoffs by U.S. employers rose last month to tie a record set in March, according to government data released on Tuesday that suggested the labor market has yet to stabilize.
The Labor Department said the number of mass layoff actions — defined as job cuts involving at least 50 people from a single employer — increased to 2,933 in May from 2,712 in April, resulting in the loss of 312,880 jobs.
It was the largest loss of jobs connected to mass layoffs on records dating to 1995.
While signs have emerged suggesting the 18-month-old U.S. recession has begun to ease, the labor market continues to deteriorate.
Haha Stu wins! Please close thread.
Craigslist tutoring please!
I need to sell some stuff.
Should I troll the WANTED section, since this appears to be the most active buyers, or should I put up a regular post?
Chifi,
sell or get rid of?
if selling then craigslist, if you just want it gone try freecycle.
Sean,
Our cat totally hooks up the entire apartment on a regular basis. The first thing I’m doing when I get home is checking the HFCS levels on his IAMS hairball formula LOL
You people need to get off youe @sses and start buying stuff you don’t need with money you do not have! Hear me:
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/06/redbook-retail-index-plunges-again.html
Breaking!
NRT/Realogy to drop the Burgdoff ERA brand.
Will merge Burgdorff with Coldwell Banker, 7 Burgdoff offices to be rebranded, the remaining will close.
When I built my house in 1997 the plans called for 12″ foundation walls, triple 2×10 girders, 2×10 floor joists @12″ OC and 5/8″ plywood sheathing. The building supply house told me I was crazy and should use I-beams and OSB. I opted to stick with the plans.
The framers glared at me when I told them to to fill every nail hole on the wind straps at every joist and rafter. I also used SS bolts, screws, hangers and straps. There was plenty of room to run lines with the 2×6 interior and exterior walls. Buying all those extension jams for the windows was a drag.
Not all newer houses are built like crap.
Thought you guys might enjoy this thread about real estate prices from another bulletin board. It starts in late 06. Read the first couple of pages and see the incredulous responses at the suggestion that things were going to get ugly.
Then read the last few pages. Wow, what a change.
http://forums.nasioc.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1095939&page=40
“Will merge Burgdorff with Coldwell Banker, 7 Burgdoff offices to be rebranded, the remaining will close.”
The good news is there’s no better time to buy a home than right now so I am sure any laid off agents will be back to work in a second;)
Craigslist tutoring please!
I need to sell some stuff.
Should I troll the WANTED section, since this appears to be the most active buyers, or should I put up a regular post?
depending on what you want to sell; ebay might be a good option. People bid the stuff up. Ofcourse if you’re selling things you dont want to ship, craigslist works; although people are most likely going to try to get a bargain off of you.
I put up my mom’s car for sale (1998 740i) last month. On craigslist all I got were lowball offers, on ebay it sold for asking.
-Richie
Re #203 - Al - most of the gas that is formed by bacteria in the intestines is removed by other bacteria in the intestines. However add in excessive fructose and certain bacteria voraciously metabolized creating the hydrogen gas.
Another bacteria that exists in your intestinal breaks down the sulfites to create the smelly stuff.
Try this experiment one day.
Step #1 - Drink one bottle of cheap cabernet which contains about 80 mg/liter of sulfites. Be sure to drink the wine first and then wait about one hour.
Step #2 Now drink one of liter of Pepsi over the next hour.
#3 Open all windows in your house.
FYI, this kind of consumption of sulfites and excessive fructose is not uncommon in many households, especially when a reality TV marathon is on.
Chi [206]
I’ve gotten some decent coin for “stuff” using Craigslist but word to the wise. When you get email inquiries, do a google search on the email address the inquiry comes from. A lot of spam bots trying to troll for valid email addresses as well as folks who will commit to buy without ever following through. Other C-listers will out these folks and google search usually turns up people you won’t want to deal with.
Stating the obvious, be home for any transactions (vs. having wife handle) and ideally complete transaction in a neutral location.
do you reckon construction costs have come down in the wake fo the housing slowdown (being polite)
I imagine that material costs are lower, and perhaps contractor margins have compressed etc…..anyone have any evidence of this?
From CalculatedRisk; S&P downgrades prime jumbo MBS’ of `98 - `04 vintages.
You know, I don’t know the the write downs on `98 vintages is just some noise or a very very bad sign.
Stu (187, 189)
Too late. I called my local contractor who has a medical degree from a paper mill.
I’m getting a load-bearing column installed.
So anyone want to predict how long this will sit?? What is the seller thinking? What is the RE agent thinking?
http://www.trulia.com/property/1081869218-21-Heritage-Ln-Whippany-NJ-07981
Libery mutual jacked up my life insurance rate by 25% from the base price they quoted and cited cholesterol levels! They jacked up my wife’s by 50% and cited a couple of tickets she had — things like driving on the shoulder for 25 ft into to take the exit into our apartment complex when the traffic was jammed… In 2005!
Should I pick another company (leaning towards, “duh!”), what rates should one expect to pay? May be I’ll pump some iron and starve for a few days to get the levels down!
S
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