Tue 30 Jun 2009
New Jersey Home Price Tracker - June
Categories: Economics , Housing Bubble , New Jersey Real EstateThe New Jersey Home Price Index Tracker has been updated to include:
* April S&P Case Shiller (Aggregate, Tiered, Condo)
(click to enlarge)
(click to enlarge)
S&P Case Shiller NY Metro Commutable Area Home Price Index
Low Tier (Under $283721) - Peaked in October 2006 and is down 24.5% from peak
Mid Tier ($283721 - $416284) - Peaked in September 2006 and is down 22.42% from peak
High Tier (Over $416284) - Peaked in June 2006 and is down 17.39% from peak
Aggregate (Overall Market) - Peaked in June 2006 and is down 21.08% from peak
Condo-Only Index - Peaked in February 2006 and is down 12.85% from peak
NY Metro Area Aggregate Year over Year Changes
Apr 08 -7.98%
May 08 -7.74%
Jun 08 -7.04%
Jul 08 -7.04%
Aug 08 -6.61%
Sep 08 -7.13%
Oct 08 -7.71%
Nov 08 -8.72%
Dec 08 -9.17%
Jan 09 -9.74%
Feb 09-10.33%
Mar 09 -11.85%
Apr 09 -12.53%
The NY Metro Area saw price declines continue to accelerate to the fastest pace yet this cycle.
Bonus Graphs from Veto and Kettle:
(click to enlarge)
More can be found here: http://tinyurl.com/nsgq2f
frist
What bottom?
From Bloomberg:
Delinquencies Double on Least-Risky Loans, U.S. Says
Delinquency rates on the least-risky mortgages more than doubled in the first quarter from a year earlier as U.S. efforts to help homeowners failed to keep pace with job losses that pushed more borrowers toward foreclosure.
Prime mortgages 60 days or more past due climbed to 2.9 percent of such loans through March 31 from 1.1 percent at the same point in 2008, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Office of Thrift Supervision said today in a report. First-time foreclosure filings on the loans rose 22 percent from the fourth quarter, the report said.
“I’m very concerned about the rise in delinquent mortgages and foreclosure actions,” Comptroller of the Currency John Dugan said in a statement with the report.
From HousingWire:
Prices in Major Markets Return to 2003 Levels
Two separate indices calculated by Standard & Poor’s showed house prices in major US metropolitan areas continued to fall in April, although year-on-year declines show signs of slowing.
Both the 10-city and 20-city composite indices have returned to their mid-2003 levels, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, released today.
The 10-city index slid 18% while the 20-city index slid 18.1% in April, compared with the year-ago period. The rate of decline slowed from the annual pace of -18.7% seen in both composites last month.
Word of the day: Recidivism
From the Record:
Housing index: North Jersey home values continued drop in April
North Jersey home values continued to decline in April, according to new data from the Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller index, as well as local multiple listing services.
Prices dropped 12.5 percent from April 2008 to April 2009 in the New York metropolitan area, which includes North Jersey, the S&P/Case-Shiller index reported today.
That compares with an 18 percent average drop nationwide. While high, the national pace of decline is slower than the 19 percent year-over-year drop seen earlier this year, and several regions showed small month-over-month price increases.
…
In Bergen County, home prices declined about 17 percent from April 2008 to April 2009, to a median $415,000, according to the RealSource Board of Realtors. The board said that was partly the result of increased activity at more affordable price points. The volume of sales dropped 25 percent.
In Passaic County, the average sale price fell about 10 percent, to $334,520. The volume of sales declined about 18 percent, according to Weichert Realtors, using data from the Garden State Multiple Listing Service.
Patrick O’Keefe, an economist with the accounting firm J.H. Cohn in Roseland, predicted Tuesday that prices in the New York metropolitan area will continue to fall, at least until the end of the year. The area’s housing values remain 70 percent higher than in 2000, according to Case-Shiller. By contrast, national home prices are about 40 percent higher than in 2000.
Across the United States, average home prices are back to the levels of mid-2003; in the New York metro area, they’re back to the levels of mid-2004. Prices are down about 33 percent nationally, and 20 percent in this region, from their 2006 peak.
“The housing market and the economy generally were more resilient in this region than elsewhere in the early phases of this contraction,” O’Keefe said. “But the region’s economy appears to be contracting more rapidly now, because we’re starting to see the aftershocks of the financial sector’s meltdown and the employment effects of that.”
In addition, homes in this area remain too expensive for many potential buyers — another factor pointing toward further declines, O’Keefe said.
Deutsche Bank recently predicted that prices in the New York area will drop an additional 40 percent, largely because it remains the least affordable major market in the nation.
It’s easy to overlook the true magnitude of the housing decline since case shiller data is almost always reported in nominal terms. 33% drop, when adjusted for inflation, is a lot higher than 21.1% (nominal terms).
Simile of the day: Purchasing now is like catching a falling knife.
#8 - Can you weave in lemmings somehow? It seems appropriate.
From the Star Ledger:
Corzine signs bill for school-less small school districts to merge with larger ones
The school districts in such New Jersey hamlets as Hi-Nella (population 1,029), Teterboro (population 18) and Victory Gardens (population 1,546) will be history by the time schools open in fall 2010 under a bill signed by the governor today.
That doesn’t mean any schools will actually close: Those districts and 23 others do not operate any.
For policy wonks, politicians and barstool grumblers alike, the number of school districts in the state — 616 — is constantly cited as one of New Jersey’s problems. But how to trim it is not so easy — even when it comes to these districts.
9: Purchasing now is like catching a falling lemming holding a knife.
“Deutsche Bank recently predicted that prices in the New York area will drop an additional 40 percent, largely because it remains the least affordable major market in the nation.”
NY Metro is more expensive than San Francisco? If this is the case, I assume it’s because San Fran includes Oakland.
From the APP:
New Jersey AG: Mortgage fraud cases on the rise
Although the nation’s beleaguered housing market is showing signs of stabilizing, Attorney General Anne Milgram warned potential homeowners on Tuesday that mortgage fraud in still rampant in New Jersey.
“We have an overflow of work in this area,” Milgram said Tuesday after announcing the criminal indictment of six mortgage brokers in three separate cases.
Milgram’s office has charged 93 people and corporations with mortgage-related fraud in the past year. All but the six announced Tuesday were civil cases.
In an indictment unsealed Tuesday, four defendants were charged with theft, identity theft, money laundering and conspiracy in alleged schemes affecting banks in New Jersey, Pennsylvania and New York.
(cont)
In a separate case announced Tuesday, Terrance Givens, 32, of East Orange was charged with theft for allegedly lying on his mortgage application.
Sucks to be Terrance. Anyone have the details on this one? AG going after J6P?
From the Wall Street Journal:
Northeast U.S., So Far Spared, Could Still Face Home Price Pain
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124639690649475815.html
For many U.S. homeowners, crisis hasn’t meant urgency. Just as potential buyers have waited, many would-be sellers facing paper losses have not been forced to act. The standoff shouldn’t be confused with stability.
The housing freefall slowed in April. Prices dropped 18.1% year on year, according to S&P/Case-Shiller’s index of 20 cities. They were lower in every city, but economists were encouraged by slightly more modest declines compared with March — a possible sign the market is near a bottom.
In some overbuilt cities, foreclosures have helped clear inventory while rapidly bringing prices back to reality. Phoenix and Las Vegas, for instance, have seen prices fall back nearly to 2000 levels.
But markets like Boston and New York, where prices rose during the boom, albeit not as drastically as the Sun Belt, have slid much slower. Prices in Boston are still 48% above 2000 levels and New York’s prices are 71% higher. Valuations in both cities are only about 20% off their peaks.
Would-be sellers in the Northeast appear to be taking their time. There, the inventory of homes for sale has increased just 17% since the end of 2005, before the market bubble burst, according to the Census Bureau. In the West, meanwhile, inventories have risen 74% over the same time period.
Transaction volumes tell a similar story. The National Association of Realtors says existing home sales in the Northeast fell 10% year on year in April, while they increased 17% in the West.
Home prices in the less overbuilt Northeast are unlikely to correct as sharply as in some other markets. But further pain has likely been delayed, not avoided.
Given what the charts look like in the posting, could it be that we are now near the phase of flat nominal prices, but declining real prices over the next several years? If so, given the choice between renting or buying, perhaps buying at current levels may start to make sense…
To steal a phrase from chi….
The end is neigh.
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/top/all/6505266.html
Al Franken is a Senator
Unbelievable:
May San Diego Home Sales Increase Revised From 89% to 6.5%
http://www.zerohedge.com/node/11787
HEHEHE,
Ain’t that the same kinda thing that happened here:
http://njrereport.com/index.php/2008/06/14/vindication-nj-q1-home-sales-down-30/
212 nom (previous thread)
Yes indeedy. Sure am.
“Word of the day: Recidivism”
Repeat OH-fender!!
Not a pretty name, is it, H.I.?
“predicted that prices in the New York area will drop an additional 40 percent, largely because it remains the least affordable major market in the nation.”
That’s a stupid reason.
“Purchasing now is like catching a falling lemming holding a knife.”
I like it. If we call the crappy car one purchases a lemon, can we call the house one purchases mid-bubble-burst a lemming?
“I bought a lemming.”
“You bought a what?”
“A lemming. You know, a house that just went over a cliff.”
Eerily similar to human behavior during the real estate bubble:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VWuiGWkd7mM
14 grim
“Givens lied about his employment history on a mortgage application in 2005. Specifically, he falsely listed his employer as a Newark business he said was founded by a relative that, for all intents and purposes, never existed.”
Bail out the lemmings! If only we can empty the ocean, they’ll be fine!
calitransplant
Based on the tax assessment for the house you’ve been looking at in BH (land is > 2x than the house) back in 2005 it was sold as a knockdown or an optional knockdown. So if the then buyer rebuilt it instead it is reasonable to have the price higher (since it is land+house instead of land only).
The updated Case Shiller NY Metro charts from previous post.
http://tinyurl.com/nsgq2f
-Veto That & Kettle
Page 7 of those charts is my favorite right now.
http://tinyurl.com/nsgq2f
The format is a total rip off from grim’s monthy sales data charts but im shameless so i snagged it without thinking twice.
Anyway, look at it again and notice the angle of the red bars this year and also try to imagine where the red bars will be for the rest of the months in this year.
veto [28]
Excellent charts!
As a humble critique, you may want to either put some other dimension on Y-axis for Chart 5, or to explain what %% there means.
When will this downturn hit Morris county? Most of the homes around Whippany/East Hanover/Hanover/Parsippany are still bloated to peak prices. Homes that sold for 400 to 500 in 04 are still 700 to 800k. Looks like they haven’t gotten the memo yet.
thanks cobbler, will talk to kettle about that one. we both have our own versions of that chart but the median income data for NY metro is not readily available and the census releases that yearly on a delayed basis so it makes that chart very choppy.
The % is basically just NJ median Income divided by CS NY Metro Price.
It supposed to show that prices to income havent really crashed that much since incomes are falling almost as fast as home prices.
anyway thanks for feedback,
“What bottom?”
bottom of the bottle maybe?
SAS
Many listing prices are still astronomically high……
A $699,000 cape
http://www.trulia.com/property/1080730419-179-Jefferson-Rd-Princeton-NJ-08540
[32] veto
…The % is basically just NJ median Income divided by CS NY Metro Price…
Please excuse my pickiness; instead of doing something productive I am just sitting home on furlough and annoying people. From the looks of the chart it is the other way around, that is, the curve maxes out in 2005-06 which you’d expect to see when you divide the fast growing prices by slow growing incomes. Then, the % range should be like 400% rather than 0.40%, no?
Many listing prices are still astronomically high……
Sellers can ask whatever they want.
Unfortunately, it is the closed sales that make the market.
I hereby dub a new cognitive bias, I’ll call it stagnancy bias.
When you browse available inventory, realize that for the most part, you are looking at the homes that don’t have any chance of selling unless a real sucker comes along.
As a buyer/seller, you aren’t watching closed transactions, you are watching a stagnant stack of asks.
So when you browse inventory, and look at the $500k POS cape that has been sitting on the market for a year and a half, you think to yourself “wow, homes are really expensive”. Instead, you should be thinking, that piece of crap has been sitting for 450 days, and it’ll sit for 450 more.
The homes that hit the market with aggressive pricing, are the ones that are moving. Unless you are religiously watching inventory, you’ll never notice those come and go. Instead, all you’ll keep browsing are the stagnant homes that won’t sell.
Witness MLS# 2693043 - 85 Park Ave, Unit 304
*Killer* apartment in the Reserve in Glen Ridge. 5th best High School in the state according to NJ Monthly, and literally a block from the midtown direct train. Included garage parking is icing on the cake.
Purchased for $780,000 on 05/08/07.
Hit the MLS at $479,000.
Owner has offered to pay the first 3 years of property taxes (at the current rate, that is more than $50k).
Which brings the net down to roughly $429k.
45% below the 2007 purchase price.
Under contract by the first weekend on the MLS.
Would you have even noticed this listing hit the MLS before it disappeared?
Talk about a property tax hike!
Asbury Park Press
Loch Arbour fails to win delay in school taxes increase
By Nancy Shields • COASTAL MONMOUTH BUREAU • June 30, 2009
FREEHOLD — Loch Arbour property owners are going to have to pay higher school taxes, at least for awhile, to have their children attend Ocean Township schools while they fight a state law that took much lower school payments away from them.
Superior Court Judge Thomas W. Cavanagh Jr. Tuesday denied the injunction the village was seeking to prevent a higher tax rate from taking effect in July.
The village had filed a lawsuit contending that a provision in the New Jersey School Funding Reform Act of 2008 was unconstitutional in repealing a special arrangement Loch Arbour has had with Ocean Township since 1999 to educate village students in the Ocean schools.
Ooch Arbour, which this past year had 24 students in the township schools, had based its school tax bill on 110 percent of Ocean Township’s cost per pupil or a minimum of $300,000 a year. That $300,000 became the going rate the past decade because the village did not have enough students to push the amount higher.
Now, under the change in state law, the village’s school taxes must once again be based on the assessed valuation of taxpayers’ homes. That means the total tax amount will go up from $300,000 per year to $1,641,700 paid by approximately 150 individuals or families.
The village asked Judge Cavanagh to delay that jump until its lawsuit filed against Ocean Township, the township school board and the Monmouth County tax administrator, Matthew S. Clark, could be heard.
Martin J. Arbus, attorney for Ocean Township, said the judge faxed his decision to lawyers denying the request for a restraining order, and set the matter down for a short discovery period and a hearing on Oct. 1.
“It’s certainly a difficult situation but as a matter of law, it is clearly the correct decision by the court,” Arbus said.
Lorraine Carafa, Loch Arbour’s village clerk and a plaintiff in the suit, said the ruling was unfortunate and “not the result we thought would bring relief for the taxpayers of the village.”
She said the next set of tax bills she will be sending out for Aug. 1 “will have to reflect this drastic increase in taxes.”
The village filed the suit after it could not get help from the state Legislature to, at the very least, help phase in the tax increases.
Some house porn of that apartment. This ain’t the lobby, this is the living room! (and the outdoor patio that extends around the side of the building)
http://njrereport.com/images/2693043.jpg
Here is an exterior shot of 301, different unit, but essentially the same exterior layout as the far corner, 304. After looking at the interior shot, you’ll be able to figure out which unit it is from the exterior.
http://njrereport.com/images/2672916.jpg
Excellent point Grim.
Anyone here have recent experience completely removing knob & tube wiring? Any horror stories to tell? Am on the verge of buying a well-cared-for 1924 Dutch colonial that has been owned by the same person for over 40 years, and wiring has not been updated in any way since the late sixties (and unfortunately, the ‘updating’ then was merely a Federal Pacific box–yikes!). Presumed k&t throughout. Plaster walls everywhere, wallpaper in most 1st-floor rooms, and lots of great wood trim and detailing. Insurance company says won’t insure unless contract with electrical contractor to remove k&t completely is signed prior to closing. Haven’t yet brought in electrical contractors for estimates, but will soon. Just curious if anyone here has any battle-scars, warnings, and/or estimates of time and $$ involved.
Here is an important question.
We live in a town that we really cant deal with the people anymore. Our son is shy and as a result he is not fitting in as well as we would like. We really want to move to Chatham but it seems like rented a comparable home will cost us $4000 to $5000 per month.
Assuming we paid $4K per month, it would cost us $48K to do so for a year. We would save on our own property taxes about $10K.
Does anyone think that prices in a town like Chatham will come down significantly in only one year? This is a town which is very overpriced and has most homes not appraising hence people need to come with larger down payments or the deals usually fall through as sellers are not negotiable.
“When you browse available inventory, realize that for the most part, you are looking at the homes that don’t have any chance of selling unless a real sucker comes along.”
so where does the avg sap/joe 6 pack then look to see closed home sales? where do they have access to such data.
SAS
aka. bank takedown map. big banks bring down smaller, community banks, consolidate, take marketshare, and you the sap, pay for it.
Now go back to your Michael Jackson moonwalk.
“2009 FDIC Bank Closing Map”
http://johngaltfla.com/blog2/2009/06/27/2009-fdic-bank-closing-map/
SAS
“Then, the % range should be like 400% rather than 0.40%, no?”
cobbler, its cs price / med income.
cs price is like 170 right now, so the percents are really low. If we were using avg home prices / med income, we’d get a much larger percent.
but its the trend you should focus on, the percentages arent meaningful on that chart. Like i said before, there is no Median income for NY Metro that we could use to match up with CS. Also, CS publishes an index number, not an avg price, so its makes it more difficult.
but thanks for the feedback, now go back to work and stop heckling me. ha.
shelly (42)-
Stay where you are and teach your kid the value of a good left jab.
sas (44)-
Economic warfare at its finest…and not so subtle, either.
You should be with me when I start explaining things to my clients in terms of economic warfare. They look at me like I’m the one who’s nuts.
Sometimes, I tell the unbelievers that the enemy has already been able to work their psych-ops on them. That really sets ‘em off.
“Nassau Faces Layoffs, Cuts If Albany Doesn’t Act”
http://wcbstv.com/topstories/nassau.senate.budget.2.1065972.html
-If the state doesn’t act by midnight on a number of measures, a rolling cascade of draconian cuts to social services in Nassau County could begin, with as many as 900 county worker layoffs, including 250 police officers.
SAS
pol clot = clotpoll?
i did some covert stints for the military down near pol pots place back in the 70s. we could of taken that guy out a long time ago before things got crazy, but pentagon wouldn’t allow it.
makes ya wonder?
SAS
got a funny Nixon story from Cambodia.
lol.
amazing,
SAS
From the WSJ:
Chinese Drywall: Pinpointing the Problems
The odors, respiratory complaints and corrosion blamed on drywall from China used in American homes may have been caused by the failure to remove sulfur and other contaminants from synthetic gypsum, some Chinese experts in building materials say.
The U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission in recent months has received more than 550 reports from people in 19 states and the District of Columbia involving odors, health symptoms and corrosion problems they blame on imported Chinese drywall. The complaints involve “rotten egg” smells and corrosion of wiring and other metals in the homes. U.S. officials are still trying to assess the possible health and safety risks.
Dear Sellers,
In Bergen County, home prices declined about 17 percent from April 2008 to April 2009, to a median $415,000, according to the RealSource Board of Realtors.
Any questions?
“Purchasing now is like knifing a lemming in the fall.”
#42 Shelly,
What makes you think moving to Chatham will improve your son’s situation?
Won’t he still be shy? Can you enroll him in martial arts or some other activity to help him get out of his shell?
#50 - would that be the dead gangster filled with cash and a picture of Nixon story?
I’ve seen a lot of chatter on these boards about pricing returning to ‘03ish levels within the next two years. Just wondering what stats back that up. As you all know (from other chatter) most are still hovering at what seems to be ‘05 prices (Union County quality ‘burbs) Just seems unfathomable to me…
Unfortunately blessed with impatience.
” would that be the dead gangster filled with cash and a picture of Nixon story?”
yup, but also included was a dildo (a sex toy).
man, i lived a strange life.
and you blokes wonder why I’m a fry short of the happy meal….
:)
SAS
“would that be the dead gangster filled with cash and a picture of Nixon story?”
yes, included was a penetration toy.
SAS
you know… the kind they sell at the dirty bookstores…
SAS
#56 cal,
Go to trulia and pick a town you like. some of the listings show you previous sales price. I’m seeing some lising at 2004 price, even some short sales that were sold in 2004.
You can also get the street address from trulia than use the monmouth county tax link under grim’s tools to look up previous sale info
“he odors, respiratory complaints and corrosion blamed on drywall from China used in American homes may have been caused by the failure to remove sulfur and other contaminants from synthetic gypsum, some Chinese experts in building materials say.”
possible legal rational for reinvestor101 to use his bulldozer.
SAS
#58 - Is there any other kind?
Chi - do you have a link for rentals in Monmouth? The farms you looked at a while back were very appealing.
“Are low appraisals slowing US home sales?”
http://features.csmonitor.com/economyrebuild/2009/06/23/are-low-appraisals-slowing-us-home-sales/
SAS
#54, we used to live in Chatham and have a network of friends there which makes that and alot of other things easier.
#64 shelley
gotcha
Here’s one for RE101
It’s your patriotic duty to save
http://money.cnn.com/2009/06/30/markets/thebuzz/index.htm?postversion=2009063012
2cts on Chestnut Hill. We spent a week at the Chestnut Hill Hotel on G-town Ave to get a feel for the place day and night. Our impression is that the “Downtown” section of Chestnut Hill has been annexed by Mt Airy. Aside from Caruso’s there weren’t many stores along the commercial strip that would cause you to make use of the downtown section. Bottom Line: Like much of Phila, its on the downward glide path and its reputation exceeds the physical reality. Exception: you live on one of the Main Line-like estates and don’t mix with the riff-raff.
A real Xissing contest going on between Dennis Kneale and Zero Hedge. You can see the CNBC video and read the reply at the ZH blog.
Bloomberg doesn’t watch CNBC.
“Hotel Loan Defaults Double in U.S. as Recession Curbs Travel”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=acgd9We.1TEY
CNBC ratings are in the toilet don’t watch them and they will go away.
Cable News TV Ratings for Wednesday, June 24
Posted on 25 June 2009 by Bill Gorman
Live + Same Day Cable News Daily Ratings for June 24, 2009
P2+ Total Day
FNC – 1,169,000 viewers
CNN – 610,000 viewers
MSNBC –488,000 viewers
CNBC – 190,000 viewers
HLN – 286,000 viewers
http://tvbythenumbers.com/category/ratings/top-news/cable-news
Has anybody seen a flipper job? We’ve recently lost in bidding war by cash offer. The house needed a gutted job. So, in a way, it was better for us that someone else took the job for us, but we really liked the location. I assumed cash buyer was a flipper, but I might be wrong. I am hoping the house will be back on the market after the job is done. Am I naive about this?
#67- And Caruso’s isn’t there anymore.
“A real Xissing contest going on between Dennis Kneale and Zero Hedge. You can see the CNBC video and read the reply at the ZH blog.”
Best thing that could have happened to Zero Hedge.
“grim says:
June 30, 2009 at 9:58 pm
From the WSJ:
Chinese Drywall: Pinpointing the Problems
The odors, respiratory complaints and corrosion blamed on drywall from China used in American homes may have been caused by the failure to remove sulfur and other contaminants from synthetic gypsum, some Chinese experts in building materials say.
The U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission in recent months has received more than 550 reports from people in 19 states and the District of Columbia involving odors, health symptoms and corrosion problems they blame on imported Chinese drywall. The complaints involve “rotten egg” smells and corrosion of wiring and other metals in the homes. U.S. officials are still trying to assess the possible health and safety risks.”
Mike Morgan lead a protest against Lennar re this a few years ago and was called a kook. Look who’s laughing now.
Grim [39]
Interiors of that place are impressive. Exteriors look a little ‘officey’ in the pic. Regardless, I would not touch that place without seeing the bills for cooling it in the summer. I made the mistake of moving into a rental with gorgeous 14″ ceilings and beautiful arch windows facing sun all day long. You don’t want to see what my bills look like during the summer. (I confess on sunny days when its 20 below outside I barely need to turn on the heat so there are some cost savings in the winter and the constant overcast skies during June were great).
Are those windows treated to reflect the sun?
From CNN/Money:
Challenger jobs report shows pace of job cuts slowing
The pace of U.S. job losses has significantly slowed, according to a report released Wednesday.
Outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. reported that the number of job cuts announced in June fell for the fifth straight month, after reaching a seven-year high in January.
Challenger said job cut announcements by U.S. employers totaled 74,393 in June, a 33% decline from May. It was the lowest total since March 2008 and 9% lower than the number of job cuts announced in the same month a year ago, according to Challenger.
“This recent drop-off may be indicative of an overall downward trend in layoff activity,” said John Challenger, chief executive officer of Challenger, Gray & Christmas said in a statement.
However, states struggling with severe deficits are still laying off a substantial number of workers, according to the report. The government/non-profit sector was hit the hardest for the fourth month in a row, with 19,438 announced job cuts in June. The automotive sector had the second highest tally of planned cuts, followed by the transportation industry.
“The government and non-profit sector will continue to be a source of heavy job cutting for the remainder of the year. States and local municipalities are running significant budget deficits and have no option but to keep making cutbacks in services and personnel. Even after an injection of federal stimulus money, many states will still be in the red,” Challenger said.
““This recent drop-off may be indicative of an overall downward trend in layoff activity,” said John Challenger, chief executive officer of Challenger, Gray & Christmas said in a statement.”
That or the calm before the storm;)
#56 calI’ve seen a lot of chatter on these boards about pricing returning to ‘03ish levels within the next two years.
03ish levels? Heck wwe are already there and than some in many areas around here.
No many of us are talking about prices reverting to 2000 ish levels.
Great work on the charts Grim, Veto, and Kettle1!
From Bloomberg:
ADP Estimates U.S. Companies Cut Payrolls by 473,000
Companies in the U.S. cut more jobs than forecast in June, according to a private report today, showing the labor market will be slow to improve even as other parts of the economy indicate the recession is abating.
The 473,000 drop in the ADP Employer Services gauge followed a revised reduction of 485,000 workers in May that was smaller than previously estimated.
Job losses may mount as the bankruptcies of General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC ripple through manufacturing. Increased firings threaten to further restrain consumer spending at a time when the world’s largest economy is showing signs of stabilizing.
“The labor market is still pretty lousy,” Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc. in New York, said before the report. “The underlying conditions are still pretty terrible.”
Economists forecast the ADP report would show a decline of 395,000 jobs, according to the median of 29 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Projections ranged from decreases of 280,000 to 532,000.
#80 grim:even as other parts of the economy indicate the recession is abating.
And the other parts of the economy that are indicating the recession is abating are?
NAR Lawrence Yun is on CSPAN now
Lawrence Yun live on CSPAN right now!
Colony Capital which put about 1.5 billion into the Zanadu project is going for an IPO to buy up distressed debt and commercial properties from the FDIC.
Clot ever heard of Colony Capital from your RTC days?
http://www.globest.com/news/1443_1443/losangeles/179554-1.html?sector=retail
Colony owns Resorts and I believe that they defaulted on their debt. Maybe they should use their IPO to pay their own bills.
Another reason to hate these f–kers. This should put a curse on them forever. They were supposed to be dropping these guys as sponsors, but somehow, the deal has been continued.
I’ve got a suggestion: why don’t they put swastikas on their shirts? It’d probably be better-received than this:
http://www.manutdshopusa.com/departments-home-kit.html
sean (84)-
The top vultures. I think they also bought Neverland at foreclosure and were working with MJ to clean it up and restore it.
what is YUN saying? cant get CSPAN at work…
thanks
Clotpoll :67 yesterday
You mentioned a possible 1 year repeal of the HVCC based on something you heard from your sources.
Can you elaborate a little further on that intell?? I know NAR and the Mortgage Brokers Assoc are putting the pressure on Washington, spreading our dues monies around…..is this gaining traction ??
Appraisal Mgmt Companies sending in bottom-feeder appraisers from out of the area are a MAJOR concern.
Does anyone have a graph on interest rates from 1999 to present. Or just an average year to year?
10 - good riddance to non-operating school districts - they were just a tax scam. Since school districts do not share ratables, the residents in doughnut-hole district with a large ratable get a massive tax break. Like Tavistock,the golf course or Teterboro, the airport- the ratable pays most of the bill for schooling and the larger township next door does not get a dime. Since NJ relies so heavily on property taxes to fund education, fixing the loopholes improves another town’s tax rate.
Look out for mergers of small K-6 or K-8 districts next. One-school wonders are on the chopping block.
re: #84 - d2b - Allot of private equity firms are going for IPOs to save themselves, KKR, and Apollo Management.
Don’t know how successful they will be I think the KKR IPO is stalled, and many of these firms are drowning in debt.
http://www.housingwire.com/2009/06/29/bill-urges-hvcc-moratorium/
Bill Urges HVCC Moratorium from Housing Wire - HR 3044
62.lisoosh says:
July 1, 2009 at 12:01 am
Chi - do you have a link for rentals in Monmouth? The farms you looked at a while back were very appealing.
We just used Realtor.com and picked towns. Realize that Middletown is large and includes many different little hamlets. Many listings are purposely vague, and there may be a back story. Be careful to research the property so you do not fall into an owner in duress. If you want a nice realtor who won’t waste your time. Nancy Boylan Colts Neck Realty. A very nice lady that will listen to you and has discerning taste. I do not know how experienced she is though.
The poster NJCoast is the best possible resource though…she is awesome.
re: #90 snuggler — Eurkea! google still works apparently, here is a link.
http://mortgage-x.com/general/historical_rates.asp
# 78 3b
I’m looking at homes in BH, New Prov, Summit, and Westfield—starter homes are still very grounded at ‘05 prices. A POS home will still sell for well above $400K. I just don’t see capes, for example, in these areas hitting below $300K (their ‘01 price) ever.
calitransplant, et al
the following projection shows what would happen if the deflation of the current bubble followed a similar pattern to the 90’s bubble deflation. The only calculation done as part of the projection was a scaling of the decline by 1.25X and a scaling of the time frame by 1.67X.
The scaling comes from the ratio of the current bubble to the last bubble.
http://www.scribd.com/full/16999237?access_key=key-4seuuw0j0m8c3aypd34
Now consider the implications if this model were to be even close. if you purchase a home now or in the next year or so, you will most likely be underwater for the next 15 years or so. Do you really want a fat down payment locked into a home that will see a net negative gain long enough for a child to go be born and go to highschool?
Now consider what happens to taxes during that period.
Thanks Sean
75.Sean says:
June 30, 2009 at 11:10 am
This one is for Chi.
The banks have been net buyers of Treasuries/Agencies in each of the past three weeks, adding $56 billion to their cache last week alone which was the second most active buying activity in history.
http://i39.tinypic.com/zl7ok5.jpg
Sean: My response is fine, I agree that it is reasonable to be skeptical about the opinions that the banks posit. However, you cannot know the reason for the UST and Agency purchases. As an example, if debt capital market desks are working to underwrite the issuance of investment grade corporate bonds, one of their To-Do’s is buying UST and tight spread paper as a hedge to immunize themselves against movement in the underlying. Especially if you are concerned about cutting across the quarter-end, or more importantly the Fed meeting.
Imagine that you were IBM, AT&T, GE etc. and you were working with MS to issue some debt. The banks are building the calendar weeks out looking to ensure a smooth transaction, and suddenly UST sells off. You think Immelt, Palmisano etc are going to be forgiving that you cost them an extra 25-50 bps in interest expense on $3-4B for the next ten years because you didn’t bother to hedge between Coporate Board approval and the locked-in pricing 3 weeks later?
Re: Mortgage Fraud Cases
http://www.nj.com/business/index.ssf/2009/07/mortgage_scam_netted_pair_115m.html
“Terrance Givens, 32, of East Orange was charged with theft for lying on his mortgage application.
Givens allegedly claimed a larger income in order to receive a $200,000 mortgage.”
The above seems really stupid. Considering all the fraud that has gone unchecked, and practically underwritten by the bailouts, prosecuting this Givens guy seems like a complete waste of time and money.
#96 calis
I’ve been watching those towns for over 2 years. I would say the ask is down over 20% since then. Don’t know the closing prices. But capes in awful shape were listing in the 500 to 550 range spring 07, now houses in much better shape are in the 390 to 430 range.
Cobbler 30
As a humble critique, you may want to either put some other dimension on Y-axis for Chart 5, or to explain what %% there means.
see the chart i linked at 97.
The HPI/median household income is similar to the CS/income that you asked about. The primary difference is that this chart uses the NJ HPI and NJ median household income. Therefore this chart has a higher level of significance compared to the somewhat disparate data sources used in the CS chart of this type.
No inflation adjsutemnt was needed for the HPI/Income data as nominal/nominal is the same as adjusted/adjusted
fiddy (89)-
You’ve pretty much pegged it. The old way of pressuring appraisers to “hit the number” was no good, but using brokered appraisals- and relying on their crappy work- is also no good.
The HVCC has simply unleashed too many harmful unforseen consequences to be of benefit to anyone.
#97 kettle1
I found a couple of resales that were bought in 06 in a good town. Now listed at 33% off peak prices. One is chasing the market down. Was originally listed at 14% above 06 price.
IPOs for Colony? That is so pre-Obama thinking…..
IOUs are the new way to go!!!!!
re: #99 Chi - Bernake and the Fed stated back at the end of March they were going to be buying up long end of the Treasury curve.
I am condisering riding that wave for a few months, since Obama thinks he can spend $3.6 trillion this coming fiscal year and the Fed is going to have to monetize the defict anyway possible either directly or indirectly.
#91 Gerry:Look out for mergers of small K-6 or K-8 districts next. One-school wonders are on the chopping block.
Not happening. This process is supposed to start in 2010. However, ditrict will merge only if approved by the residents in a referendum. The special interests will scare residents with horror stories of what will happen to their children if the districts are merged,and so they will vote no.
The state will have to force mergers, no other way to do it.
Re: School district consolidation
That means the total tax amount will go up from $300,000 per year to $1,641,700….
Ouch. Can you imagine your taxes going up 5x? Is there a complete list of these towns somewhere?
Any word on those Districts that have only grammar schools but outsource their high schoolers? The same logic holds for tax increases/consolidation. Specifically interested in Harding.
Back to mid-2004 pricing? I don’t see it. I do see a lot of homes priced at 2006-2007 pricing. I would say they make up at least 50% of the market where I am looking in northern NJ.
#96 cal:I just don’t see capes, for example, in these areas hitting below $300K (their ‘01 price) ever.
Well you did not live through the last bubble and burst here, happened before, its happening again.
I just do not see any reason why it would not? What will keep values up, wall st, pharam, telecom?
gotta love Newspeak
BusinessWeek -
German unemployment declines in June
Bloomberg -
German June Unemployment Rises to Most Since 2007
-google search to get the articles
#109 gman:Back to mid-2004 pricing
We are already there and than some in many towns
Re: Appraisals
“The HVCC has simply unleashed too many harmful unforseen consequences to be of benefit to anyone”
Say it ain’t so…
An ill conceived government solution rushed through in a politically charged atmosphere to address a problem that substantially had already run its course doesn’t work?
more Newspeak
Financial Times -
UK economy shrinks most in 50 years
Bloomberg -
U.K. Consumer Confidence Increased to 14-Month High
Re: Chinese Drywall
“The U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission involving…the corrosion of wiring and other metals in the homes. U.S. officials are still trying to assess the possible health and safety risks.”
I submit anything that rots metal is probably not that healthy…
at least the california debalce isnt spreading…
States brace for shutdowns
Indiana is one of five states — along with Arizona, California, Mississippi and Pennsylvania — bracing for possible shutdowns this week as time runs out for lawmakers to close billion-dollar gaps in their fiscal 2010 budgets.
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-shutdown30-2009jun30,0,1912245.story
re: Chinese Drywall.
We already had the Hydrogen Sulfide debate a few days ago on Drywall.
I wager the homeowners fart out more Hydrogen Sulfide than the drywall releases, that will be the defense of the Insurance companies.
[114] kettle
maybe we should be relying on foreign sources for our news, as it won’t be subject to the control of the west wing?
In reading the stories, do the underlying stories diverge as well? Headline baiting is not new, and not limited to finance. In fact, it is quite amusing to note how many times the story and headline just don’t seem to match.
[116] kettle,
Problem with shutdowns and furloughs in some functions, it may be weeks before anyone notices that the state workers aren’t working.
Then again, maybe that isn’t a problem.
Immigrants in US are asking for money from home
Immigrants who wired their wages home are now asking their families to send them money
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Immigrants-in-US-are-asking-apf-2083101905.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=2&asset=&ccode=
Nom,
re state shut downs; it depends on the services hit. welfare type programs get provoke a fairly quick response from the masses. that is what is going to be interesting to see in california.
hockey winger :113
When you learn that the chief architect of the HVCC mess (Andy Boy Cuomo) sits on the board of a major AMC….it all becomes crystal clear.
From Minyanville:
Municipal Finance, the Third Derivative
“But I would offer that today officially begins the third derivative: municipal finance. This is where our delusional desire for low taxes and extensive public services collides with an unreconcilable maelstrom of high unemployment, lower housing values, and truly unaffordable retiree commitments.
I don’t profess to know how this one will resolve itself. As an interim step, California has announced that it will be meeting its obligations using script — IOUs. I don’t know how long employees and vendors are willing to work for nothing more than a promise. But I do know that it’s entirely unsustainable.”
Sorry, article link:
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/print.php?a=23366
Urban flight slowing down:
Several years ago it seemed that a lot of urban dwellers couldn’t wait to get out of the cities and into the peaceful greenery of the suburbs.
In 2001, Philadelphia lost 15,205 people. The next year, 13,337 fled, and the following year, 11,911. Subsequent migrations declined but were still significant.
But fresh census figures show that these exoduses have dwindled throughout the country and that some cities have reversed the trend and gained population.
Experts say that the reasons are the housing crunch, recession and higher gas prices.
Not reflected in the figures is the possibility that people who once rejected urban living are deciding that the city may not be such a bad place to live in as they thought.
Census data released yesterday show that New York and Chicago made population gains from increased births. Also showing rebounds were industrial centers in Minneapolis and St. Paul; Columbus, Ohio, and Lincoln, Neb.
Only 1,236 left Philadelphia in 2008. Detroit, as might be expected from its ailing auto industry, lost people, while West Coast cities, such as Los Angeles, San Francisco and Seattle posted gains.
“Cities are showing a continued vitality as hubs of activity even as some suburban and exurban areas go through tough times,” said William Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution.
Philadelphia was once the nation’s third-largest city, behind New York and Chicago. Now, with a population of 1,447,395 last year, it ranks sixth. *
#94- Why thank you Chifi (blush)
There is pandemonium in Deal, Allenhurst, and Interlaken because of the new law abolishing no-school districts. These towns were great for families with grown(or no) children and summer residents. No students in school=no tuition= no school tax.
This will be a windfall for the school districts that will absorb these towns. They’ll receive lots more $$$ in taxes and there will be no new students to educate. Wonder where all that money will go? To the kids- I’m sure.
if california tried something like this i wonder if the FEDS would step in. i image GS doesnt want the other states getting any ideas
California’s Empty Wallet: Turning Crisis into Opportunity
(state its own bank and issue interest free loans)
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=14180
[121] ket
that’s a given. in fact, if you are in gov, that’s how you provoke a crisis, by cutting “essential’ services, rather than those that are strictly make-work jobs that serve no discernible purpose.
Pol Clot
Say it aint so! I’m shocked!
Football is being used as a vehicle for money laundering, according to an agency responsible for tracking the proceeds of crime.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/football/8127790.stm
Tax News of the Day:
Here’s whats coming folks:
“CRS Report Points to Legislation Repealing
Tax Exclusion as Health Care Reform Offset
A Congressional Research Service released June 29 report identified a number of pending bills that might target the exclusion for employer-provided insurance to finance health care reform.
“Completely eliminating the federal income tax exclusion would increase tax revenue by more than $130 billion a year, and more than $90 billion could be raised by eliminating the exclusion for employment taxes as well,” said the report, which examined tax benefits for health insurance and expenses in current law and legislation.
Senate Finance Committee leadership have embraced modifying but not eliminating the exclusion, while their House tax-writing counterparts have all but ruled it out.
CRS, however, pointed to “comprehensive reform proposals” that would eliminate the tax exclusion with some exceptions, including:
• H.R. 1321, introduced by Rep. Anna Eshoo (D-Calif.);
• H.R. 2520, introduced by Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), a member of the House Ways and Means Committee;
• H.R. 3000, introduced by Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Calif.);
• S. 391, introduced by Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), a member of the Senate Finance Committee;
• S. 1099, introduced by Sen. Tom Coburn (D-Okla.); and
• S. 1240, introduced by Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.).
Most of the bills also would eliminate other health tax benefits, the report said.
The report noted that other proposals to cap—rather than eliminate—the exclusion have not yet been introduced.
“Capping the exclusion might be less controversial than elimination, though it would also raise less money for reform,” the report said. “Proposals to cap the exclusion often are aimed at coverage with generous or excessive benefits, though these can be difficult to define.”
Price tags of between $1 trillion to more than $1.5 trillion over 10 years have been attached to the three committee proposals for comprehensive reform, although “more recent versions are said to be less expensive,” the report said.”
Grim (36,37)
I fully agree with you that most are looking only at the stagnant property. How can I look at properties that closed in the city that I am interested. Is there a easy way to search MLS?
Also, looking at properties that closed/ Under Contract gives a better idea on the price that homes are selling in a area.
re #127 - Kettle1 - Corzine went out and borrowed 2 Billion from JPM when he could have just as easily started up the Bank of New Jersey. Using Fraction Reserve banking they could have made all the loans they would ever need and set the interest rate very low.
I posted this before the State of North Dakota solved all of it’s budget woes back in 1919 by starting the state owned Bank of North Dakota. They only make fixed rate mortgage loans with a max LTV of 80%.
http://www.banknd.nd.gov/about.jsp
“what is YUN saying? cant get CSPAN at work…”
Neither can I, but I’ll take a stab at it.
“Buyers are taking advantage of a row prices and we are seeing deh market stabarization. Interest rates are stirr rerativery row. We expect to see deh home prices increase in deh near future”
yeah…I’m one of those self hating asians.
#130 nom: I have been asking the following question, but it never appears to be adddresed in the MSM.
If the government will offer health coverage now, and employers/employees will be taxed on existing heatlh benefits, what would stop all employers who now offer company health benefits, to simply eliminate them?
[130] redux
In plain parlance, that means your health benefits will be taxable income to you for both income and payroll tax purposes.
Since most people are unaware of just how much their employer pays for their benefits, this will result in one ugly shock to most americans with health coverage. Further, so that people don’t start dropping coverage wholesale in order to keep their taxes down (especially younger, healthier people who largely fund programs for the unhealthy), which will cause both a death spiral for employer plans and a ballooning of direct gov health costs (medicaid, SCHIP, etc), the Feds are gonna have require people to keep health coverage, a la Massachusetts. So far, that requirement (and it is a requirement) has been left out of the MSM discussion.
This is gonna nail the obamanauts right in the base; a regressive tax and a significant one at that, that many obamanauts would want to avoid but cannot.
PGC (129)-
They should be looking at the connection between European teams and the Brazilian agents who have tons of young players under management.
Turn over that rock, and you’ll find drugs, guns, money laundering, fraud, human trafficking…and lots of hair gel.
Chi #94 - Thanks
Speaking of stagnant inventory, the listing below has been on the market for around 3 years, yes 3 years!
But hey they started out asking 479k, and they are now down to 449K.
http://www.njmls.com/cf/details.cfm?mls_number=2814743&id=999999
[134] 3b
I think my prior post addresses the issues, although obliquely.
The longer MSM doesn’t report it, the better IMHO. More job security for me.
3135 non: But what will stop stop compnaies from simply dropping health benefits all together?
#139 nom: Sorry I still do nto see it. I guess I need more coffee.
“Terrance Givens, 32, of East Orange was charged with theft for lying on his mortgage application.
Givens allegedly claimed a larger income in order to receive a $200,000 mortgage.”
The above seems really stupid. Considering all the fraud that has gone unchecked, and practically underwritten by the bailouts, prosecuting this Givens guy seems like a complete waste of time and money.
They should definitely charge this man with a crime. It may seem petty and small to you, like going after the small fish, but it is a crime to falsify income for the purpose of trying to get a loan.
If there are hundreds of mass-murderers running around it doesn’t make it ok to kill just one person. Likewise, just because everyone is speeding doesn’t mean that you shouldn’t ticket anyone. Murderers do time, speeders pay fines…people who commit mortgage fraud pay the penalty.
If your breaking the law, your breaking the law.
I don’t think the intent is to completely stop this behavior. The idea is to keep this type of behavior in check. You don’t issue tickets to everyone who speeds, you issue them randomly so that the ‘threat’ of a ticket looms in your mind when you do speed. This self-policing behavior is what they want to reinforce.
Cracking down on mortgage fraud will cause similar self-policing behavior. Yes, in a small way I feel sorry for the first ones that get caught and punished when law enforcement begins to take the crime seriously but quickly that remorse evaporates when I realize that I bear the social cost for their crimes.
Possibly you think that an amnesty period should be in effect for someone who commits mortgage fraud? I’m going to go with a staunch no on that issue.
grim -
Thanks for posting the link to the Chinese drywall article since the situation’s fallen off my radar lately.
I used to live a couple towns away from a major gypsum mine and wallboard production facilities (not in China though!). Never heard of anything like this happening until last year.
PatientRenter-
The MLS stats for “under contract” only states the last listing price of a home when it went under contract. Only when a house sale “closes” does it state the selling price.
That doesn’t mean the pending sale price isn’t blabbed amongst most realtors.
I just read the article on goldman sachs from Rolling Stone. Good read. How can a normal joe such as myself avoid getting shafted when CO2 offsets become the new bubble and energy prices shoot up?
In case anyone hasn’t read it…
http://tinyurl.com/itsgoldman
“this chart uses the NJ HPI and NJ median household income. Therefore this chart has a higher level of significance compared to the somewhat disparate data sources used in the CS chart of this type.”
Ket, here are my problems with both of our versions of price to income analysis.
1 - OFHEO NJ HPI doesnt give avg home price historically, neither does cs, so right off the bat creating an accurate median price / income ratio is problematic.
2 - NJ Median Household income isnt released for 2008 and 2009, furthermore, its annual data when it is released, making for choppy graphing riddled with jumpy lumps and bumps all over.
3 - To say OFHEO HPI is more significant is a personal opinion. HPI is more limited in scope but that doesnt make it more significant. I think they’re both very similar indexes, comparing them next to eachother shows little significant difference for what we are trying to accomplish.
So, without reliable data, NJ price to income graphs are very difficult to capture and therefore, way more difficult to project. Home prices alone are hard enough to project for that matter. I tinkered with the index returns to get avg prices historically and i feel like its somewhere in the ballpark, but in the end, all of it seems like alchemy.
Bye the way, what are you using for NJ median income this year and last? Do you have updated NJ med household income data from census? i still can’t find it more recent than 2007.
Some more photos of that killer Glen Ridge apartment:
http://www.nestcube.com/realestate/85-Park-Ave-304-New-Jersey-7028/27671/
41/On the fence-
I’m on the House and Building committee at my church. We’re about to go through the same thing with our parsonage. I’ll take a look at the costs.
You’ve probably already thought of this, but ask about costs for additional outlets in each room.
Good luck!
To see actual sales (instead of stagnant asking prices on overpriced POS houses) you can check Zillow, they have a “recently sold” view in the map.
It’s not perfect nor always up to date, but it’s easy to use and better than nothing.
Nicholas, I’m not saying they shouldn’t prosecute him I just think it’s a smoke screen. It’s easy to prosecute small fish that don’t have resources to fight the charges and pretend that something is being done about the overall problem.
Prosecuting people like Givens is the equivalent of prosecuting crack heads. They’re easy to catch and send to jail. While crack heads do suck, and commit crimes, the cartels that cause the most damage continue operate generally unscathed.
Nicholas, I’m not saying they shouldn’t prosecute him I just think it’s a smoke screen. It’s easy to prosecute small fish that don’t have resources to fight the charges and pretend that something is being done about the overall problem.
Prosecuting people like Givens is the equivalent of prosecuting drug addicts. They’re easy to catch and send to jail. While drug addicts suck, and commit crimes, the cartels that cause the most damage continue operate generally unscathed.
Veto,
08 NJ median household income:$67035 (Census press release)
1 - OFHEO NJ HPI doesnt give avg home price historically, neither does cs, so right off the bat creating an accurate median price / income ratio is problematic.
NJ HPI tracks the available data for NJ median sales price (we put this chart in the “2 bubbles” paper). All i am trying to do is indirectly observe trends. in my opinion there is enough data to show an established trend.
The easiest set of data to work with is the regional census data sets as home price and income are both available
http://www.scribd.com/doc/16194994/NJ-HPI-ratio
2 - NJ Median Household income isnt
released for 2008 and 2009, furthermore, its annual data when it is released, making for choppy graphing riddled with jumpy lumps and bumps all over.
the state level data goes back to 1984, so it isnt really lump unless you zoom in on the scale. if thats a problem run a moving average.
3 - To say OFHEO HPI is more significant is a personal opinion. HPI is more limited in scope but that doesnt make it more significant. I think they’re both very similar indexes, comparing them next to each other shows little significant difference for what we are trying to accomplish.
perhaps “significant” was the wrong term. FHFA (formerly OFHEO) NJ HPI is more focused then the CS NY Metro data. In my opinion when you have an area that is as economically significant as Manhattan and the other included Ny areas it will definitely generate a difference as opposed to using a data set focused only on NJ. (CS(NY+NJ regions)/ NJ income) is going to be more skewed then (NJ home index / NJ income).
in the end they do show similar trends with the difference being primarily in magnitude.
So, without reliable data, NJ price to income graphs are very difficult to capture and therefore, way more difficult to project. Home prices alone are hard enough to project for that matter. I tinkered with the index returns to get avg prices historically and i feel like its somewhere in the ballpark, but in the end, all of it seems like alchemy.
I think the available data is reasonably reliable, we have census data on incomes and FHFA NJ home index (or CS index).
The question to me, is what are we using this ratio for? I see it as 1 of several stability indicators. Virtually any bubble like behavior will spike the ratio, as it wouldn’t be a bubble if incomes stayed in line with the home prices (or the associated index). From this point of view its very useful and i dont see any alchemy.
What it cannot be used for is to tell me what the price of a house in far Hills will be at a given time. But if you have enough data to see historical trends it can tell you that there may be instability in somerset county home prices if you see a substantial divergence from historical levels, as one of 2 things happened. Either income dropped significantly while home prices stayed flat or decreased at a much slower pace, or home prices increased significantly while income either stayed flat or increased much less then home prices.
The only time either of those conditions is not problematic is in the early growth phase of a housing bubble, as in the long term housing is generally not a performing asset (historical average of 1% or above inflation).
Matthew, unfortunately for buyers, and fortunately for sellers, Zillow excludes the true market making sales.
You have to watch the real estate transactions in the paper to get all of them.
You’d be amazed at the true comps for just about every price range.
regional home price/income charts. (all data from US census)
http://www.scribd.com/doc/16298667/Regional-HP-Ratio
Here is what I have found when reviewing closed sales vs. asking prices. My target towns are the upper-haughtyville areas of Union and Essex county.
Homes fall into one of three categories.
(1) Unsold @ sitting at over 200 DOM @ Peak pricing +/- 5%
(2) Sold @ 2004-2005 pricing after very few DOM
(3) Sold @ Peak pricing
Category 1 is unsold and still on the market for a reason.
Category 2 is sold for a reason.
Category 3 is very frustrating to me but 90% of the time, when I look up the new owners, the last name is of East Asian decent…. Liu, Huang, Wu, etc.
The amount of money certain cultures are willing to pay for the “top schools” will never cease to amaze me. They could take a lesson from my mother in how to never pay retail.
“Top Schools”?
Har, that’s a good one. Wait ’til these dopes cough up another 200K+ and get a degree that won’t matter a whit when they start working their first $12/hour job after graduation.
As if that butt-banging won’t be bad enough: those kids better not even dream of owning a house ANYWHERE in NJ…especially not in those “top school” districts.
See, the parents didn’t pay thru the snout “for the kids”…they did it for themselves.
Too bad there will be no greater fools to relieve those people of their houses when they’ve retired and the state of NJ is sucking them dry with property taxes and income taxes on their pensions.
148 / BklynHwk:
Thanks! Will be very interested to hear what you find out.
#153 seneca: Category 3 is very frustrating to me but 90% of the time, when I look up the new owners, the last name is of East Asian decent…. Liu, Huang, Wu, etc.
That is ironic, because in my blue ribbony Beregn Co train town, the same east asian names also belong to many of the houses that are now in various stages of foreclosure.
They have made stupid mistakes just like every otehr group.
I bet a lender will be even less willing to foreclose on a 2.5mm-3mm house in Short Hills than a dilapidated row house in Detroit.
Imagine the upkeep once the home is vacated. Imagine the impairment to the balance sheet once the loss is recognized.
#154 clot:they did it for themselves.
That is what I always say,and I believe it is true.
And who exactly is going to buy their cape with 12k a year in property taxes? The same children they claim to care so deeply about? You see they want these same children when they are adults to buy their over priced houses now saddled with insane taxes.
Consumer confidence up?
Broad measures of consumer confidence are meaningless. Wit so many people living paycheck to paycheck and with the decrease in ready credit, the only confidence that matters I’d that of the folks with ready cash and access to credit.
If some tapped-out person feels confident about the future, what difference does it make? If one is not in a position to spend, one has no economic relevance.
The Obomunist press spinning of the layoff data is pathetic. In an era when people are not getting absorbed from the unemployment roles into the ranks of the employed, does anyone believe that small decreases in the numbers of layoffs is a sign of recovery?
Pat (#151)
I didn’t know that. Are you saying that Zillow purposefully excludes certain sales because they are too low? I know their algorithm for calculating their “Zestimates” excludes some sales that don’t appear to be arm’s length transactions (e.g. sales for $1 likely between relatives) but I wasn’t aware of any filter on the feature that is just supposed to show recently sold properties.
I’m not saying you’re wrong, I’m just surprised — how did you determine that Zillow is not showing true market making sales? Could it be their sales records just aren’t updated quickly enough to capture the latest (and biggest) declines?
Whatever happened to the concept that before you consume, you must produce?
Look at what we produce: either individually, corporately or as an entire economy. Then tell me how confident you feel.
We are awash in excess production, excess capacity and superfluous, rotting, useless inventory. How the fcuk does this presage a rally in consumption of ANY type?
Consume? I can name ten people I know- right now- who live in 400K- 1mm houses who haven’t paid their mortgage since November.
Ket,
Thanks for the census update for 08. good find.
We used the HPI index in two bubbles but thats not the same as avg prices.
I agree we should focus on the trend but it would be nice to say if the avg home is 3x or 5x median income and we cant do that without avg prices, unless we extrapolate and thats where it can get dicey.
Also regional data is ok but it still doesnt drill down to NY metro or nj, which is what i’d eventually like to do to match up with CS NY or NJ HPI.
NE might be a better region to track boston but NJ is on the outter edge of NE and so i wonder how much we are influnced by PA (midwest?) and/or mid atlantic region (which cencus might lump into the south). I think the argument about wall st taking a hit more than other regions might be diluted if we used regions.
“any bubble like behavior will spike the ratio”.
i see your point here but someone might argue that 2000-2006 was a bubble in everything, including corporate profits and personal incomes and they would have a decent point.
I’ll look into those suorces you passed on. thanks again for sharing. lets keep discussing this.
“I can name ten people I know- right now- who live in 400K- 1mm houses who havent paid their mortgage since November”
So who arw the stupid ones, those struggling to pay their bills or those who save the expense and hord their cash?
They’re slaughtering excess chickens in Delaware, and beans/wheat went limit down yesterday…and MSM wants to talk about a possible revival in consumption?
This time, they may have actually overestimated how stupid we are.
Shore (165)-
When I think along these lines, I keep coming to the conclusion that the biggest dope is me.
#166 clot,
excess chickens, green shoots, and chinese drywall are phrases that would have never entered my vocabulary before this year.
I always viewed chickens like sarong party girls, you can never have too many.
safe (168)-
Don’t forget “epic fail”.
164 veto
i see your point here but someone might argue that 2000-2006 was a bubble in everything, including corporate profits and personal incomes and they would have a decent point.
i agree with that statement. The really scary thing is how much more of a bubble you had to have in housing o drive the homeprice/income ratio so high!!!
it was like that almost across the board. everything went up but alot more then income did for 99% of people
Clotpoll says: July 1, 2009 at 12:03 pm
“Top Schools”? Har, that’s a good one.
clot: WTF is “Har”? Are you a pirate? I thought you were a mere “housing terrorist”?
“beans/wheat went limit down yesterday”
[166],
Beans were down .025 yesterday, up .43 today.
Veto,
2 points. first the regional chart i linked at 152 tells me that the north east and the west census regions still have much farther to fall. even though prices have come down in much of the west their home price/income ratio is way out of wack and there is nothing to hold it up. No booming economies, no employment boom etc.
My second point is that we can use the homeprice/income(HP/I) ratio to ball park prices. in Nj average price tracks the FHFA HPI. SO if we expect NJ HPI to fall by 30% then its likely that the average home price is going to drop by 30% as well. if in this same scenario we assume that income stays flat then the HP/I ratio would also return to a stable point. If however incomes go down then that 30% drop my not be the stable point ( where stable point is not the bottom, but is likely to be associated with it.
With increasing unemployment and the implosion of walstreet, we can expect incomes to decrease for the next couple of years. What that would suggest, is that the rate of the housing decline will not stabilize as some have suggested with the releases of the recent CS data
More Newspeak (of a sort?)
US Home-Loan Delinquencies Double on Least-Risky Mortgages -Bloomberg
Yale’s Shiller Sees ‘Striking Improvement’ in Rate of Home-Price Decline - Bloomberg
Has this been posted already?
Obama Expands Loan-to-Value Ratio to 125% for Refinance Program
http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aHVHVQAbwbvY
July 1 (Bloomberg) — Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will begin refinancing mortgages with loan-to-value ratios of as much as 125 percent as the Obama administration seeks to boost participation in its anti-foreclosure programs.
Housing and Urban Development Secretary Shaun Donovan is scheduled to make the announcement in a speech in Las Vegas today, said Brian Sullivan, a spokesman for the agency. The program currently allows the companies to refinance mortgages without additional credit protection with loan-to-value ratios as high as 105 percent, which is up from their legal limit of 80 percent.
President Barack Obama’s Home Affordable program announced Feb. 18, sought to help as many as 5 million Americans who may owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have refinanced 80,000 loans under that program, 20,000 of which had loan-to-value ratios above 80 percent, Federal Housing Finance Agency Director James Lockhart told reporters June 19. The program only applies to loans already owned or guaranteed by the government-run companies
Americans Suckle On The Government’s Teat
Americans are saving and paying off credit card debt at levels not seen in years, but where’s that money coming from? Increasingly, it’s not coming from work. As today’s chart (via David Rosenberg) demonstrates, a staggering proportion of American personal income now comes straight from government transfer payments — welfare, unemployment, etc. And thus the process of household debt becoming government debt takes place.
http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-govt-transfers-as-a-percent-of-personal-income-2009-6
“Striking Improvement in Rate of Home-Price Decline ”
Ladies and gentlemen, from the cockpit, this is your captain. The bad news is we still have no power and we are going to crash. The good news is we will hit at a 30° pitch, and not 45°. Sure you will still be just as dead when we hit, but things will have improved at the end.
Striking Improvement in Rate of Home-Price Decline
Ladies and gentlemen, from the c0ckpit, this is your captain. The bad news is we still have no power and we are going to crash. The good news is we will hit at a 30° pitch, and not 45°. Sure you will still be just as dead when we hit, but things will have improved at the end
Where can I get a teat? Oh, I forgot. It is only for those who create problems, not value.
GE, the new AIG????
How a Loophole Benefits GE in Bank Rescue
General Electric, the world’s largest industrial company, has quietly become the biggest beneficiary of one of the government’s key rescue programs for banks. At the same time, GE has avoided many of the restrictions facing other financial giants getting help from the government. The company did not initially qualify for the program, under which the government sought to unfreeze credit markets by guaranteeing debt sold by banking firms. But regulators soon loosened the eligibility requirements, in part because of behind-the-scenes appeals from GE.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/06/28/AR2009062802955_pf.html
hmm looks like the GS and friends have their new back channel debt transfer set up. GE to the rescue!
Treasury Set to Unveil PPIP; Ross, GE Capital Participate
The U.S. Treasury is planning to roll out its long-awaited Public-Private Investment Program (PPIP) plan, aiming to unveil it on Wednesday. The program is likely to include as many as nine participants. CNBC has confirmed that two firms will be Wilbur Ross’s Distressed Real Estate/debt fund and a joint venture between GE Capital and private investor Angelo Gordon & Co. As many as seven other firms will likely participate.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/31638841
Sounds like someone at FT reads this blog
Debt is capitalism’s dirty little secret
Just why is there so much debt in the Anglo-Saxon world? Bankers and regulators know well that it is in nobody’s long-term interests to have allowed borrowing to escalate to a position where the US now owes far more, as a multiple of the economy, than at the start of the Great Depression. The answer is capitalism’s dirty little secret: excessive lending was the only way to maintain the living standards of the vast bulk of the population at a time when wealth was being concentrated in the hands of an elite.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e23c6d04-659d-11de-8e34-00144feabdc0.html
rain (173)-
Day before? Sorry.
Re: State Banks
“Corzine went out and borrowed 2 Billion from JPM when he could have just as easily started up the Bank of New Jersey.”
The last thing in the world I would want is to put more capital at the disposal of the State.
The original article had a flawed premise - that accounting change rules caused a credit crisis plunging CA into disarray.
CA is failing because it is committing too many resources to underproductive uses, not because of access to capital. In fact, I would argue easy access to capital fed the machine that allowed CA to continue to make economically unwise investments without apparent repercussions.
I suppose the Bank of ND works because it exists in a homogenous landscape with a more limited mandate and sticks to businesses it knows. Kind of like your the community banks(’know your borrower’) and probably not much different in size.
Can you really imagine what would happen literally giving Corzine and Co. the keys to a bank?!
wing (184)-
Like a meth addict driving an Indy car.
“Can you really imagine what would happen literally giving Corzine and Co. the keys to a bank?!”
[183],
Beans traded close to limit down yesterday, finished down .025. Currently, up .40.
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CBOT_S.X09&v=i
I downloaded the excel spreadsheet from the NJDOE with the list of school districts and their DFG rating. I believe the ones without a DFG rating are non-operating districts - ie the ones that are being forced to merge with local districts. The list of them is below. I count only 24, the article says 26.
http://www.state.nj.us/education/finance/sf/dfg.shtml
***Do your own research to confirm that these are all non-operating. Also may have left one off.*****
County Sch. District
Atlantic Longport
Bergen Rockleigh
Bergen Teterboro
Camden Audubon Park Boro
Camden Hi Nella
Camden Pine Valley
Camden Tavistock
Cape May Cape May Point
Cape May West Wildwood
Gloucester Newfield Boro
Hunterdon Glen Gardner Boro
Middlesex Helmetta Boro
Monmouth Allenhurst
Monmouth Deal Boro
Monmouth Interlaken
Monmouth Sea Bright Boro
Monmouth South Belmar
Morris Victory Gardens
Ocean Lakewood Twp
Ocean Mantoloking
Somerset Millstone
Somerset Rocky Hill
Sussex Branchville Boro
Warren Hardwick Twp
“Michael Jackson album sales explode since death: More Michael Jackson albums sell in the week since his death than for 6 months prior ”
…now if we can just get Billy Joel, Don Henley, Garth Brooks and Shania Twain to carpool to heaven, the music industry will be saved! Well, OK, they will meet their 2Q09 sales goals but still….
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Michael-Jackson-album-sales-apf-1271952964.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=3&asset=&ccode=
[130] redux
From Urban-Brookings, on what to expect if we start taxing health benefits:
“How much would taxes increase
for those paying higher taxes?
Among tax units with a tax increase, there is wide variation in the estimated average change in 2019 federal income and payroll taxes across quintiles of income and across reform options. If the entire exclusion were to be removed, tax units with tax increases would pay, on average, between $3,780 more for those in the lowest quintile of income and $9,670 more for those in the highest quintile of income in 2019. However, this option may seem too potentially disruptive to ESI coverage.”
I like that last line. It is as close as they get to acknowledging that a tax on your health benefits would effectively kill employer sponsored health care coverage unless you held a gun to everyone’s head to keep it.
Clotpoll,
“Whatever happened to the concept that before you consume, you must produce?”
Keynes and his supporters claimed to have overthrown that outdated concept, which went back to Say’s Law, and is graspable by anyone with common sense.
Most economics professors have beaten that concept out of anyone related to economics or finance during their university years.
Ayn Rand is the primary champion for the return of the primacy of production in economics. See her novel “Atlas Shrugged” which imagined what the world would look like should it run out of producers. Which is why sales of the novel are reaching record highs this year, more than 50 years after publication.
http://aynrandlexicon.com/lexicon/consumption.html
This recession is starting to smell bad.
Crabtree & Evelyn files for Chapter 11 protection.
[184] leftwing,
Oh, I disagree. Give Corzine a bank, please. And make all that lending due in 30 years.
As a bagholder, I want that can kicked down the road. Way down. I want to have NJ beyond the horizon in my rear view mirror when it implodes.
Kettle,
$67,035 is an estimate from the 2007 survey as far as i can tell…
http://www.census.gov/prod/2008pubs/acs-09.pdf
We’d really want to use this source for the official census med income… http://www.censusbureau.biz/hhes/www/income/histinc/h08.html
I’ll let you know if i ever see an update for 2008.
More very sobering reading from some tax guys that won’t get invited to Heritage or Cato anytime soon:
http://www.brookings.edu/papers/2009/06_fiscal_crisis_gale.aspx
Re: Corzine with a Bank
Clot:
And with the same outcome!
“Like a meth addict driving an Indy car”
Phony & Fraudy. Now set to detonate like an IED:
http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE56044420090701
Kettle,
$67,035 is an estimate from the 2007 survey as far as i can tell…
http://www.census.gov/prod/2008pubs/acs-09.pdf
We’d really want to use this source for the official census med income… http://www.censusbureau.biz/hhes/www/income/histinc/h08.html
I’ll let you know if i ever see an update for 2008.
Clot,
i think someone caught it on video
http://tinyurl.com/m3wg5x
veto 196
yep, sorry if i wasnt clear on that point
Yale’s Shiller Sees ‘Striking Improvement’ in Rate of Home-Price Decline - Bloomberg
This does seem true for the nation but not for NY Metro…
Veto,
that is the source i use for median incomes. that is the exact source i used for the NJ Hp/I ratio
west (190)-
Guess I didn’t take enough econ courses.
“Most economics professors have beaten that concept out of anyone related to economics or finance during their university years.”
200, no worries. i’d like to get more reliable info for that price / income analysis. in the end, we have to work with whats available.
This sucks:
MANAGUA, Nicaragua — Alexis Arguello, who fought in one of boxing’s most classic brawls and reigned supreme at 130 pounds, was found dead at his home early Wednesday.
Presidential spokeswoman Rosario Murillo confirmed Arguello’s death and an autopsy was pending. The La Prensa newspaper reported Arguello — elected mayor of Managua last year — was found with a gunshot wound to the chest.
veto
<i.i’d like to get more reliable info for that price / income analysis
what type of source would you consider a high quality source?
I stand corrected. Evidently, a meth freak can be a paid race car driver:
CHARLOTTE, N.C. — NASCAR confirmed Wednesday that suspended driver Jeremy Mayfield tested positive for methamphetamines.
The confirmation came outside federal court after Mayfield’s attorney mentioned the illegal substance several times during a 45-minute argument against the driver’s indefinite suspension. Court recessed after Bill Diehl’s argument and is set to reconvene Wednesday afternoon.
“We will prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that Jeremy Mayfield did violate the NASCAR substance abuse policy and tested positive for methamphetamines,” spokesman Ramsey Poston said.
Diehl argued in court that Mayfield has never shown any characteristics of a meth abuser, and if he used the drug at the levels NASCAR has suggested, Mayfield would be “either a walking zombie or he’s dead.
“His teeth were never rotting out, his eyes were not sunken,” Diehl said. “He never displayed any characteristics that are commonly seen by everyone among people who use meth.”
Consume? I can name ten people I know- right now- who live in 400K- 1mm houses who haven’t paid their mortgage since November.
Eddie Curry?
#193 - From that article;
It will prove difficult to close the gap entirely via modifications to existing taxes and spending programs. A new revenue source, such as a value added tax (VAT), may be needed. A VAT imposed at a rate between 15 and 20 percent would essentially close the fiscal gap under the administration’s budget.
Well, that certainly caught my attention.
ket - actual median household income from census on a historical basis for NJ, which they have but not updated.
But it would be ideal to get NY Metro region, which is NJ + NYC Median Income.
Also, I’d like to get avg home price for NJ or NY Metro. HPI and CS only give index prices, not actual median home prices.
If we had those two, we’d be able to do a more accurate price to median income ratio.
Crabtree & Evelyn filing for chapter 11?
Impossible.
They have a store in the bestest performing mall in the world, Short Hills. That location alone should have been able to hold up the company.
#193 Nom
You aren’t advocating a VAT are you?
#206 - a meth freak can be a paid race car driver
Let’s not confuse NASCAR with racing, they’re two entirely different things.
And he probably needed the speed to stay awake during the race. Lord knows I would…
/left turn and left turn and left turn and left turn and…
CalculatedRisk has June auto sales up. Numbers are bad. GM down %33 YOY, Toyota %32 Chrysler %42. I’m actually surprised it’s this much as it was this time last year that car sales really fell off the cliff.
I have a lease ending in a few months. Might be a decent time to find some deals.
Veto,
here is the best i have found for median home price at US census
http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/housing/census/historic/values.html
Was just walking back from the gym, saw a table set up with huge poster boards of BO with a Hitler moustache drawn on perfectly. There was some health care raving going on I believe, didn’t get to stop.
Tosh 208
Re VAT;
and what happens to consumer spending when you throw another millstone tax on top of things…..
tosh (212)-
Whenever somebody tells me they’re a NASCAR fan, I assume they have the IQ of an ocelot.
kettle. 215
something is not right with that.
Its totally disconnected from HPI and CS.
For example, census has 2000 prices 5% higher than 1990 whereas HPI and CS prices show 40% higher, which makes alot more sense given inflation.
#216 - More deflationary pressure. It should compliment the credit card reform rather well.
[211] hubba,
I haven’t advocated a VAT, but it makes sense at certain levels. I don’t think we’d ever see it here, and it would be disfavored because so much of our economy is based on consumption for consumption’s sake (a consumption tax regime rewards savings versus an income tax regime).
That is a debate for another day. Fact is, we don’t have enough wealthy people in this nation to tax ourselves to prosperity, and will have a lot fewer if soak-the-rich becomes an even greater national priority. That will mean the “middle class” will get handed the tax bill, and they won’t be at all happy about it.
Besides, its already crowded enough under O’bama’s bus; there is no room for the middle class taxpayer that voted for hope and change.
[216] kettle,
“and what happens to consumer spending when you throw another millstone tax on top of things…”
What happens to anything when you tie a millstone around it, and drop it?
The end is nigh……
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Wall-Street-to-Draw-Muslim-prnews-4055546721.html?x=0&.v=1
make money says:
July 1, 2009 at 2:03 pm
Consume? I can name ten people I know- right now- who live in 400K- 1mm houses who haven’t paid their mortgage since
November. Eddie Curry?
albani: check this comment out from an observer of the elections that i know….it sounds like Hudson County, but it all albie….
“The elections are still going on, and I’m in the middle……the virtual “dead heat” in the elections is going to produce months of uncertainty, even if a new government is formed soon.”
Kettle1 [177],
Bingo! That’s exactly right! My government handout has paid for all my CC bills and a portion goes towards the principal on my mortgage. Every week that goes by when some stupid bast*rd thinks he’s saving the company money by not hiring or cutting a few more heads is another week where guys like me won’t by the f*cking idiots* goods or services. Little does the genius know that his blood is being drained drop by drop like a scene out of a Dr. Phibes movie.
by = buy
Hey boo boo! Make sure you pack that pic-in-nick basket!
I’m sorry, but I find so much humor in this.
Black bear attacks Vernon man, steals sandwich
A black bear knocked over a man in his driveway last week and stole the sandwich he was packing for a business trip, according to a report in the New Jersey Herald.
The report said while packing his car at 10:30 p.m. on Friday, Henry Rouwendal was knocked down by a black bear, who then grabbed his sandwich from the trunk of the car. Rouwendal suffered from some cuts and bruises, the report said.
The remains of the sandwich and its wrapper were found on the side of the house, the report said.
“Gimme that sandwich you bitch ass cracker”
grim,
The bear must be out of work.
Nom, BC
you guys might find this interesting. We institute Cap&Trade then tarrif the he11 out of developing nation’s imports
WTO admits some trade limits may be necessary to stop climate change
GENEVA (AP) — The World Trade Organization acknowledged Friday that some limits on free trade may be necessary to stop runaway climate change — provided the restrictions aren’t a cover for protectionism.
“WTO case law has confirmed that WTO rules do not trump environmental requirements,” the global commerce body said.
Import taxes on goods coming from countries that fail to meet environmental standards might be among the measures exceptionally permitted under global free trade laws, WTO said.
http://www.latimes.com/business/nationworld/wire/sns-ap-eu-wto-climate-change,0,2145944.story
Posts 226-228 are prima facie evidence that we’re all just marking time at this blog.
Waiting for the next detonation.
Looks like Cali didn’t pass a budget plan. IOUs for everyone!
grim (227)-
Bears cannot talk.
#226 - Obviously, he can haz cheezburger.
220. Nom
That is a debate for another day. Fact is, we don’t have enough wealthy people in this nation to tax ourselves to prosperity, and will have a lot fewer if soak-the-rich becomes an even greater national priority. That will mean the “middle class” will get handed the tax bill, and they won’t be at all happy about it.
—–
Yes, this is all going as I predicted. BO and state governments are already lowering their sites on who is wealthy. At the end of the day we’re going to be a poor excuse for a third world country.
3b - 107
“The state will have to force mergers, no other way to do it.”
Totally agree. A new law requires county supers to look into it and hold meetings, but all districts must approve the consolidation for it to go forward. End of story - none will. But the state is slowly bleeding the small districts to death with less and less state school aid using the argument that there economies of scale are too small. At some point the state will mandate a few consolidations, but it will be a shotgun wedding.
[229] kettle
Didn’t I say months ago that the only way BO was gonna get his programs to work was with new, stiff trade barriers? Didn’t I say that the One would have to abrogate our trade treaties?
I believe I did.
The NJ RE and Consulting Group Report
Jim, Nom
there is another way…. inflation. it will be attempted before this is through, and note the current half a$$ed attempt, but full on red hot printing press. perhaps after obama bails out a few more states and hands out another bailout package later in the year
Kettle1,
They do have the printing presses running at 100% capacity. Soon we will have a US Peso. BTW, I’m attempting to hoard some gold and silver for the wave of inflation we’ll see. Does anyone remember when the US stopped using 90% silver in their coins?
Econ courses are designed to brainwash people into becoming Keynesian babbling pod people. Any rational person clearly understands why nearly all economists missed this crisis. There’s a simple answer to that one… look at their education.
#239 Ben: But arent they all from Blue ribbon Schhols and the best of the best universities?
‘Posts 226-228 are prima facie evidence that we’re all just marking time at this blog.’
Pol Clot,
the bubble is bursting in mid air and now we have nothing left to talk about.
There is only so many ways you can say “you guys were right. My house really is worth 70% of what it was 3 years ago”
I cant wait for dow to continue its plunge so you guys can start predicting mass starvation and riots in our own backyards again. that was so much fun.
Dear Sellers,
Another month in the books and another month where your over-priced shitb*x loses another 6 grand. Think of it; by the time the kids start school in the fall, you will have a lost another $12,000 due to your discernment.
Jim [234],
1964 was the last year 90% was used in dimes, quarters and halves. Besides selling bongos, nails, whiskey and initiating uprisings, I’m also a numismatist.
Pol Clot says:
July 1, 2009 at 3:45 pm
grim (227)-
Bears cannot talk.
AH HAR!!!!! Shiver me timbers…..
Thanks gary. I’m always on the lookout for silver and gold.
Not sure if this has been posted yet on the NJ Real Estate, Gun, Bullion and Cleavage Report:
http://edition.cnn.com/video/#/video/offbeat/2009/06/30/moos.squirrel.cleavage.cnn
Today is July 1, 2009. The Spring Selling season for housing is officially closed.
“But arent they all from Blue ribbon Schhols and the best of the best universities?”
Absolutely…
Cap and trade is just going to be smoke and mirrors for the administrations excuse as to why energy costs will continue to increase as the currency gets clobbered. There’s only so many times you can blame those boogieman speculators before people call BS on you.
Give me a loan,
where the flippers roam,
and credit never freezes.
I deserve plasma, granite, and stainless
refi is so painless
Saving money is so 1960’s
Home, home equity,
is like free money for you and me.
We can spend this cash,
never worry about a housing crash,
loans will all be backed by the treasury.
Ben (239) -
“Any rational person clearly understands why nearly all economists missed this crisis. There’s a simple answer to that one… look at their education.”
Roubini and Krugman are Keynesian and they did not miss this crisis. In fact, Roubini might well have designed this crisis, so accurate were his predictions.
Didn’t Chuck Prince say, back in 2007, that we have to keep dancing till the music stops? So, obviously, he knew the crisis was coming.
There is a simple reason that most economists missed this crisis. They were incentivised to miss it, would you rather have a job or be a Cassandra?
We are all monetarists on the way up, and keynesian on the way down.
About the CA IOUs.
I wonder if I can send the California Franchise Tax Board (their income tax agency) an IOU when I pay my CA quarterly taxes in September? Only seems fair, no?
“left turn and left turn and left turn and left turn and…”
Humm, it sounds like NASCAR should be the official sport of the Democratic party.
kettle, another thought that complicates price/income ratios.
income is only part of individual’s revenue.
what about balance sheet wealth, like 401k, saving accounts, etc. Yes they got clobbered recently but the amount of bonus money poured onto the NJ NY region in the last 10 years means that quite a few people are sitting on nice little nest eggs. Some people live off the interest to subsidize their expenses or others may just plop down 75% downpayment on their next purchase.
NJ/NY may have the most millionaires per capita, or one of the most at least. All that balance sheet wealth doesnt get reflected in our home price to median income ratios. Just a thought. It doesnt blow our whole analysis out of the water but something for us to consider.
“I’m also a numismatist.”
That almost sounds as kinky as being a philatelist.
[237] kettle,
But running the printing presses won’t put folks to work in any meaningful way, nor will it solve the environmental issues (except that energy prices will soar, so maybe it will). To get americans working in the way, and on the things, the adminstration wants, you have to start sealing the borders to trade.
[254] shore
I am a shameless extrovert. And I have been known to hang around with thespians.
Veto,
Right now the biggest windfall is likely coming from income transfers due to the WWII generation dying. Free money, so to speak, for their spendthrift offspring.
Nom,
The firm has a don’t ask don’t tell policy though, right?
[252] short
“Humm, it sounds like NASCAR should be the official sport of the Democratic party.”
Don’t hold your breath waiting for that one. A liberal dem is about as popular at a NASCAR event as Jesse Jackson at a K-lan rally.
[257] shore
Right now the biggest windfall is likely coming from income transfers due to the WWII generation dying. Free money, so to speak, for their spendthrift offspring.
Whose spendthrift offspring? Unless you do some good planning now, BO’s spendthrift offspring get up to half to spend on hopeium.
Shore, 258 yep, another good example.
thx,
“The remains of the sandwich and its wrapper were found on the side of the house, the report said.”
I thought the wrapper was found outside Satin Dolls. THe bear had to check in with the boss and offer a taste.
For all the inflation hounds,
the thing that strikes me is that deflation only lasted 2 years during gd 1930-1932, and they werent flooding the system with liquidity like we are today.
Hopium,
Is that from the South Lawn garden?
“Dude, its organic. Take enough of this and you can hardly feel the tax increases”
Karl Malden, dead at 97.
One of Amex’s best pitchmen
Did he leave without it?
The listing below is offered at 257K, bank owned. Buyer responsible for finishing CO’s etc.
Last sold in Sept of 2005 for 690K!! Prior sale May of 2005 for 570K!!!!! $120,000 profit in 4 months!!!!!
Both of the last buyers Asian, not picking on any one group, but from an earlier post the assumption that all Asians have lots of money, and are not stupid with it is obviously false.
Oh and the taxes are a delightful 11k a year.
Before bowing out, this thought:
Always beware of pultritudinous female philatelists, especially when they ask whether you, “are going to lick that?”
“Roubini and Krugman are Keynesian and they did not miss this crisis. In fact, Roubini might well have designed this crisis, so accurate were his predictions.”
Krugman is a joke. He got it in 2005, and by that time, that makes puts him behind about a few million other people, including nearly everyone on this site. The fact of the matter is, Krugman, the Keynesian, was openly advocating for interest rate cuts in 2001 to, as he specifically put it, “stimulate housing”. Nevermind the fact that the bubble was already too large back then… Continuing throughout 2001, he repeated advocated further interest rate cuts to do the same. He consistently specified to do so to pump the housing market. By 2003, he was talking about deflation in the US and the liquidity trap and how we might need to bring the rates down to 0%! Giving Krugman credit for recognizing the housing bubble is akin to giving an arsonist credit for recognizing a fire is in the building he just lit up. This article will pretty much sum up Paul Krugman’s economic wisdom…
http://mises.org/story/3530
I’d challenge you to name another Keynesian other than Roubini that was way ahead of the curve. The only other person that comes to mind is Dean Baker…and it’s kinda hard to even label him a pure Keynesian. The fact of the matter is, I can give you about 2 dozen economists who were well ahead of the curve and understood what was happening back in 2000 and 2001 (based on their writings at the time) that all claim that Keynesian economics is pure nonsense.
Here is another new listing 2 bedrooms but upstairs ready to be finished (for 3 or 4). What do you expect the sellers to have done that? After all it is offered at 449k.
Oh yeah, I almost forgot the taxes are only 12,500 per year. But it is cose to NYC transportation, so hurry,hurry!!
http://www.njmls.com/cf/details.cfm?mls_number=2929593&id=999999
#267 3b Sorry here is the listing for post #267
http://www.njmls.com/cf/details.cfm?mls_number=2929643&id=999999
(3) Sold @ Peak pricing
Category 3 is very frustrating to me but 90% of the time, when I look up the new owners, the last name is of East Asian decent…. Liu, Huang, Wu, etc
If home prices are down 21% from peak and putting 20% down,this east asian either paid cash or put close to 50% down at peak prices.
Do they know something we don’t know?hmm
3B, I refuse to believe that sold for $690k… how is that friggin possible?!
I just zillowed it, there it is… I cannot believe that. That is one of the craziest peak prices paid for sh*tbox that I’ve ever seen.
Any ideas how much day care is running for a 3 month old?
Does anyone know of a good day care (private) in Monrore or Cranbury, NJ???
Would love to buy a house but the asking prices are way too high. Waited this long…
Here is a big time comp killer in River Edge.
274 Taft, assking 592K
Sold in 2006 for 750k
Sold agian end of 2006 for 968k
41% drop and not done yet. Ouch