June Existing Home Sales!

From Bloomberg:

Home Resales in U.S. Increased 3.6% in June, More Than Forecast

Home resales in the U.S. rose in June for a third consecutive month, spurred by tax incentives, lower borrowing costs and foreclosure-driven declines in prices.

Purchases climbed 3.6 percent to an annual rate of 4.89 million, stronger than forecast and the highest level since October, the National Associiation of Realtors said today in Washington. Median prices fell 15 percent.

The gain in sales confirms Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s remarks this week that the worst housing slump in eight decades appears to be moderating. A record drop in household wealth, due in part to the plunge in property values, and mounting unemployment are among the reasons rebounds in housing and the economy are likely to be drawn out.

“The bottoming process in the housing market is under way,” Michelle Meyer, an economist at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York, said before the report. “The stabilization has been driven in part by an increase in deeply discounted foreclosed properties.”

Economists forecast existing sales would rise to a 4.84 million rate from a previously reported 4.77 million for May, according to the median of 68 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from 4.7 million to 5 million.

June traditionally is one of the top sales months of the year as families prepare to move before the start of the next school term, according to the NAR. The group adjusts the figures for these seasonal variations in order to facilitate month-to- month comparisons.

Sales were down 0.2 percent compared with a year earlier.

The number of houses on the market fell 0.7 percent to 3.82 million in June, NAR said. At the current sales pace, it would take 9.4 months to sell those homes, compared with 9.8 months in May. A 7 months supply is usually consistent with stabilization in prices, NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun, said in a press conference. It may take until the end of this year or early 2010 before property values steady, he said.

The median price of an existing home fell to $181,800 from $215,000 a year earlier, the NAR said.

From MarketWatch:

U.S June existing home sales up 3rd straight month

Resales of U.S. single-family homes and condos rose 3.6% in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.89 million, the highest level since last October, the National Association of Realtors reported Thursday. Resales have risen for three straight months. The housing market appears to be healing, said Lawrence Yun, the NAR chief economist. The increase was higher than expected. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected sales to rise to 4.85 million. Inventories of unsold homes are still elevated and putting pressure on prices. The inventory of unsold homes on the market fell to a 9.4 month supply at the June sales pace, down from 9.8 months in May. Yun said that inventories would have to be at a 7 month supply to get price stabilization. The median sales prices fell 15.4% in the past year to $181,800. Resale activity is concentrated in lower-priced home as a result of tax incentives, analysts said. Distressed properties accounted for 31% of sales in June.

From CNBC:

Existing Home Sales Rise for Third Straight Month

Sales of previously owned homes in the United States increased at a faster-than-expected annual pace in June, an industry survey showed Thursday, in the third straight month of gains.

The National Association of Realtors said that sales rose 3.6 percent to an annual rate of 4.89 million units from a downwardly revised 4.72 million pace in May. June’s reading compared with forecasts for a 4.84 million unit annual pace.

It was the highest level of sales since October 2008.

The median sales price was $181,800 in June down 15.4 percent from $215,000 in the same month last year, but up from $174,700 in May.

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368 Responses to June Existing Home Sales!

  1. grim says:

    From the Daily Record:

    Morris jobless rate higest on record

    Morris County recorded its highest-ever unemployment rate in May at 6.7 percent, the county freeholders were told Wednesday.

    The unemployment rate is contributing to increased traffic at the county Office of Employment and Training Services, according to Director Olga Burns, who said her office is seeing 850 new applicants a week, compared with 350 a week last November — a 142 percent increase.

    The unemployment rate for the county has been kept relatively low for more than 40 years and the previous high was 6.3 percent in May 1992.

    Burns’ report and that of Gary Denamen, director of the office of temporary assistance, painted a grim economic picture. Applications for general assistance rose 35 percent in 2008 from 2007 to about 8,000, Denamen said, and is estimated to top 9,000 this year, a 13 percent increase.

    The number of food stamp applicants has risen more than 13,700 from 2007, Denamen said. In 2007, there were 40,264 applicants, in 2008, 47,355, and it is estimated that this year the numbers will reach 53,965.

    “We’re seeing applicants from a broad spectrum of the economy and job market,” he said. “The walk-in traffic has increased significantly.”

    Morris County has the second-highest number of food stamp applicants in the state, Denamen said.

  2. grim says:

    From the Daily Journal:

    Jobless rate already worse than expected

    As scary as Cumberland County’s unemployment rate is, it could be worse. In fact, it might already be.

    In May (the latest month for which county totals are available), Cumberland had New Jersey’s highest unemployment rate at 11.6 percent. Atlantic County followed at 11.3 percent.

    But unemployment figures tell only part of the story. The Department of Labor counts only people who have no job and were looking for work in the past four weeks. “Discouraged workers” — people who have given up hope and their job search — don’t count. Neither do people who are working part-time not by choice but because they can’t find full-time jobs.

    Analyzing data from the federal Current Population Survey, The New York Times recently concluded that the unemployment numbers are far higher when you take the Department of Labor’s broadest measure of the job market.

    On that basis the news report found that New Jersey’s true rate of people looking for full-time work is not around 9 percent, but actually 15 percent.

    That would mean that there’s an additional 6 percent of the work force looking for full-time jobs statewide. Add that margin to Cumberland’s 11.6 percent level, and it would mean 17.6 percent of people in the county employment pool are looking for full-time jobs. With a county labor force of about 69,000, that would mean more than 12,000 Cumberland residents are looking for full-time jobs.

  3. grim says:

    Home prices improve everywhere!

    Except here!

    From HousingWire:

    Radar Logic Sees ‘General Recovery’ with Price Gains

    House prices in major local markets posted monthly gains stronger than seasonally expected.

    “The larger-than-average increase in home prices from April to May 2009 could indicate that seasonal price fluctuations do not fully account for the strength we are seeing in many areas and that seasonal gains are being augmented by a more general recovery in the housing market,” Radar Logic says in its RPX monthly housing market report.

    Of 25 major metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) tracked by Radar Logic, 22 — or 88% — posted month-over-month price gains in May.

    Only Atlanta, Las Vegas and New York took exception with the broader trend, posting monthly declines of 0.2%, 0.6% and 1.7%, respectively. Radar Logic attributed the price declines in Las Vegas and New York to the strong economic ties to struggling tourism and finance markets in those MSAs.

  4. grim says:

    From the WSJ:

    As Housing Loses its Stickiness, Prices Reach Bottom Quicker

    For those who dismiss any possibility that home prices are near a bottom, Tom Lawler has a new concept. He calls it the “de-stickification” of house prices.

    Though Mr. Lawler was among the more bearish of housing economists when the market was still bubbling, he recently has been arguing that prices for low- and mid-range homes are stabilizing in many parts of the country–an idea that enrages the many bloggers who cherish the view that we haven’t seen anythinng yet and that the true housing Armageddon lies ahead.

    Part of the bear case involves the historical observation that it takes many years for house prices to bottom out because they are “sticky,” or slow to adjust downward even when supply surges and demand evaporates. In the past, home prices adjusted slowly in such circumstances because homeowners are stubborn and often don’t need to sell immediately. When Los Angeles had a housing slump in the early 1990s, caused in part by a plunge in aerospace-related employment, the Case-Shiller price index for the city started falling gradually in early 1990 and didn’t hit bottom until 1996.

    This time around, Mr. Lawler argues, things are happening a lot faster. That’s partly because banks are dealing with a foreclosure rate not seen at least since the Great Depression. Starting late last year, banks and other owners of foreclosed properties began selling them aggressively at whatever price the market would bear, even in the depths of winter when few buyers venture out.

    That has forced prices down much more quickly than would have been expected in some of the milder down cycles of the past, Mr. Lawler says. The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city composite index has fallen about 33% since peaking in the second quarter of 2006. Prices in Phoenix and Las Vegas are down more than 50% since their peaks, according to S&P/Case-Shiller.

  5. grim says:

    From the Courier Post:

    Health premiums will cost taxpayers

    A state agency on Wednesday approved premium increases of 11 percent to 23 percent for benefits provided to public workers under New Jersey’s health care plan.

    The unanimous vote by the State Health Benefits Commission primarily affects health care costs paid by towns, schools and other public entities. But public workers may wind up paying more as their collective bargaining agreements expire.

    Overall, the rate hikes add $663 million in health care costs for governments enrolled in the plan. Many governments aren’t enrolled, including more than half of school districts and counties.

    “The increase will . . . need to be absorbed in next year’s budgets,” said League of Municipalities executive director Bill Dressel. “Absent state action, it will, inevitably, lead to tax increases and/or service cuts and layoffs.”

    Health care costs in the current year are running nearly $193 million ahead of expectations.

  6. grim says:

    Interesting piece from Vox:

    How far will US home prices fall?

    Is the US due for a protracted decline in housing prices? This column argues that fundamentals on the supply side of the housing market imply that US housing prices are about to bottom out. They should resume rising soon.

  7. grim says:

    From the WaPo:

    Homeowners Struggle, and the Vultures Circle

    State and federal law enforcement officials are teaming up across the country to stop despondent homeowners from needlessly shelling out thousands of dollars to save their homes from foreclosure.

    The Federal Trade Commission recently announced that it is leading “Operation Loan Lies,” an effort by 25 federal and state agencies to shut down firms that are deceptively marketing foreclosure rescue and mortgage-modification services. These companies often do little or nothing to help homeowners renegotiate their mortgages or stop foreclosures, officials from the FTC and other agencies say.

    The FTC said it has brought 14 cases since April, while 23 state attorneys general and other agencies have taken action against 178 companies.

    Naturally, as vultures do when they spot an ailing creature, scam artists have been circling and feeding off people’s desperation to keep their homes. Companies advertising on radio and television promise to “rescue” homeowners from foreclosure — for a fee. And those fees are hefty, ranging from just under $1,000 to more than $5,000. The companies are taking advantage of the fact that hundreds of thousands of homeowners are still not seeing relief through federal and state programs created to speed up loan refinances and modifications.

  8. grim says:

    From Newsday:

    Median home price drops 18.2% in Nassau, western Suffolk

    Median home prices for Nassau and western Suffolk fell 18.2 percent in the second quarter when compared with the same period a year ago – the sharpest drop since the subprime market collapsed in the fall of 2007, according to reports due out Thursday.

    The median sales price for the second quarter was $360,000, compared with $439,841 the same quarter last year, the data show. Year-ago comparisons indicate price changes were flat in the fall of 2007 before prices began falling by single-, then double-digit percentages, figures show.

    “What we’re seeing is an accelerating rate of decline,” said Jonathan Miller, head of Manhattan-based Miller Samuel appraisal firm, commissioned by Prudential Douglas Elliman Real Estate to compile reports.

    That trend is “a little bit of a concern,” he said, because it forecasts a longer road to housing market recovery than many have predicted.

    Also, the home sales market is a “lagging indicator” of the economy, because people need jobs and credit to buy real estate, and a “leading indicator,” the unemployment rate, shows little signs of recovery, Miller said.

    In the Hamptons and North Fork, the second-quarter median closing price was $680,000, a 16.8 percent drop from a year ago, the report said. Prices there have fallen, but not by greater percentages as they have for the rest of Long Island, Miller said.

    Compared with a year ago, second-quarter closings dropped by 43.3 percent in the Hamptons / North Fork and 37.7 percent for the rest of Long Island, according to the data. “We’re still looking at a weak economy and a weak housing market,” Miller said.

    Herman said the number of contracts is growing: “The demand of people buying, especially in the lower prices, is really strong.”

  9. grim says:

    From the Record:

    Notices sent to 308 pilots

    Continental Airlines Inc. has sent notices to 308 pilots telling them they may be laid off as part of a plan announced Tuesday to trim the carrier’s overall workforce by 1,700 this year, the pilots union said.

    The Houston-based airline let the Air Line Pilots Association know late Tuesday that the notifications will be sent to comply with a New Jersey state law that requires workers be notified of layoffs at least 60 days before they occur.

    More than half of Continental’s 4,988 pilots are based at its Newark hub. Pilot furloughs would be based on seniority.

    Separately, the company is trying to entice as many as 700 flight attendants to take temporary leave to avoid forced departures in that group.

  10. grim says:

    From the Record:

    Realtors lament losing right to hire appraisers

    What’s that home worth?

    That’s the question at the heart of every real estate deal. And one answer comes from appraisers, who are hired by lenders to make sure a property’s value is large enough to support a mortgage.

    Now, new rules on appraisals have stirred up turmoil in an already troubled housing market. The uproar has led Congress to introduce legislation that would put an 18-month moratorium on the rules.

    In May, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac — the giant government-sponsored companies that buy mortgages from lenders — enacted the Home Valuation Code of Conduct, which aims to protect appraisers from being influenced by mortgage brokers, lenders or real estate agents. The rules were a reaction to the excesses of the housing boom, when some appraisers reported being pressured to value a property generously to justify a big mortgage.

    “They pay us next to nothing,” said Lisa Molnar of Skyline Appraisals LLC in Ringwood. “They’re using the cheapest appraisers they can find.”

    “They don’t base it on quality, they base it on price,” said Scott Zotollo of Zots Appraisal Services in Hasbrouck Heights.

    Terri Tricoli of Liberty 100 Realty in Waldwick recently saw a sale fall apart after a low appraisal from an Ocean County-based appraiser.

    “The buyers really, really wanted this house,” she said of the Waldwick home, which was on a large property and a quiet, pretty street. She said the appraiser, who was from Lakewood, was not familiar with the Bergen County market, and based the appraisal in part on the price paid for a nearby house that was on a smaller lot and a busier street.

    “The sellers weren’t willing to come down that much [in price], so the buyers walked because they couldn’t get the mortgage,” Tricoli said.

    “The pendulum has swung from being overly liberal to extremely conservative,” said Bob Oppenheimer of Re/Max Fortune Properties in Englewood Cliffs, president of the Eastern Bergen County Board of Realtors. It used to be that if an appraisal seemed low, a real estate agent could call and offer more information on comparable properties, he said.

    “Now, in most cases they don’t want to look at it, for fear of someone saying there was interference in how that appraisal was done,” he said.

    Zotollo said appraisers are being conservative because that’s what lenders demand, since many were burned during the housing bust and now hold mortgages that exceed the homes’ worth.

    During the housing boom, appraisers could look at comparable sales up to six months earlier; now they can consider sales no older than three months. And appraisers say many loan underwriters want them to analyze five similar properties, instead of the three that were required in the past. In addition, many expect them to look at nearby short sales and foreclosures, which tend to go for fire-sale prices.

    Lenders confirm that they expect appraisers to be cautious.

    “We’re definitely looking at appraisals very carefully now; we’re making sure everything meets our criteria,” said Thomas Laird, vice president of mortgage lending at Hudson City Savings Bank in Paramus. “We’ll do spot checks.” With large mortgages, sometimes they’ll even order a second appraisal to make sure the value is there to support the loan. Hudson City does not use appraisal management companies because it does not resell its loans to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

  11. grim says:

    #10 – Title should be:

    “Realtors lament no longer being able to manipulate appraisals”

    Sorry guys, but you f*cked it up royally on the way up, what do you expect?

    Unless you can prove you raised concerns about “overly liberal” appraisals on the way up, you have absolutely no right to talk about it in a public forum now.

    This is yet another extension of the “credit is a right” mentality that is so prevalent across American society today. The banks have every right to chose whoever they’d like to give them a fair appraisal. Let me get this straight, you want to be able to dictate the terms of the lending, but you aren’t the lender? Golden rule, he who has the gold…

    Realize one thing, dopes. By bringing in an appraiser from outside of an area, you can be sure that appraiser will not be swayed by local influences, will not be manipulated, will not be wined and dined, and will not be persuaded. This is by design, and not by accident. Most active agencies work with a small group of regular lenders and know most local appraisers.

  12. Pol Clot says:

    grim (11)-

    Agreed, but if you want to find incompetence and corruption, the “brokered appraisal” process is filled with it. The only concern appraisal brokers have is finding the cheapest appraisers, so they can maximize margins.

    Allowing mortgage originators and agents to influence appraisals is wrong. However, you can’t expect poorly-paid, novice (or incompetent) appraisers to do a good job, either.

  13. cooper says:

    #10
    “In addition, many expect them to look at nearby short sales and foreclosures, which tend to go for fire-sale prices.”

    are they really using short sales and foreclosures as comps?

  14. Pol Clot says:

    cooper (13)-

    Standard appraisal guidelines- believe it or not- usually exclude “distress” sales.

    However, those distress sales are powerfully reflected in asking and selling prices, because buyers and sellers can’t ignore them.

  15. Pol Clot says:

    “Mr. President I am concerned there will be no rationing of health care. It is axiomatic that there is unlimited demand for free services.”

    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/07/open-letter-to-president-obama-on.html

  16. cooper says:

    Pol
    if distressed property sales make up (for argument sake) %30 of all sales shouldn’t the appraisers have to use them for an accurate number? How do you turn a blind eye to 1/3 of your market?

  17. BC Bob says:

    “June Existing Home Sales!”

    Can’t wait for the dancing clowns after this report. Sales will be up, majority being distressed sales. Lower prices will lead to additional activity. The fraudsters will be singing that the bottom is in.

  18. BC Bob says:

    I guess the CRE industry was not in attendance at John’s recession buster bbq?

    “As the recession’s gotten worse in the last six months or so, we’re seeing increased vacancy, declining rents, falling prices — and so, more pressure on commercial real estate,” Bernanke said yesterday. “We are somewhat concerned about that sector and are paying very close attention to it. We’re taking the steps that we can through the banking system and through the securitization markets to try to address it.”

    “Christopher Dodd, the Connecticut Democrat who chairs the panel, told Bernanke that “some have suggested” the commercial market “may even dwarf the residential mortgage problems” in the U.S.”

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a2mAhkgbWDXc

  19. cooper says:

    BC since i’ve been up(430am) I heard “bottom” 3x!

  20. freedy says:

    according to bloom, fox,cnbc the bottom has been in for several weeks now.

    naz up what 11 days in a row, dow ytd highs
    we have to get with the program.

  21. BC Bob says:

    “according to bloom, fox,cnbc the bottom has been in for several weeks now.”

    Yes, if not apparent previously, we now know we are screwed.

  22. cooper says:

    “according to bloom, fox,cnbc the bottom has been in for several weeks now.”

    have i missed the buying opportunity of the century?

  23. BC Bob says:

    coop [19],

    Only 3X? There must be some money bunnies on the sidelines today?

  24. #6 – It is interesting but he’s making a number of assumptions;
    1) That household formation (this really needs to be defined as well) during the previous decade (1.4mil a yr)was not artificially skewed and the 2k8 numbers (544k households) is aberrant. If the 2k8 numbers are more in line with the ‘natural’ formation rate, we’re f’d. This is making assumptions on my own part.
    2) FTFA: Even without physical growth, income growth can also help provide a floor on housing prices.
    I’d agree with him, if we were ever to actually see income growth. We wont.
    3)Increasing energy costs, via both a weakening dollar as well as supply constraints placing an increasing penalty upon suburbanized America. This is more of a long term trend, but needs to be kept in mind.

  25. freedy says:

    can’t fight the fed or the good news that just seems to keep coming.

    all these earning beating except for a few.

  26. Pol Clot says:

    cooper (16)-

    “if distressed property sales make up (for argument sake) %30 of all sales shouldn’t the appraisers have to use them for an accurate number? How do you turn a blind eye to 1/3 of your market?”

    Agreed that appraisers should use distress sales in their calculations. However, it doesn’t really matter, because appraisers don’t control the direction of the market. That direction is- and always will be- controlled exclusively by buyers and sellers.

    At the end of the day, appraisers are ex post facto observers of the market. If what they observe are declining prices- brought on by a wave of distress sales- they simply report the facts and move on.

    You will never encounter an appraiser who tells the lender that a prospective borrower should pay more for a property.

  27. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    “according to bloom, fox,cnbc the bottom has been in for several weeks now.”

    Yep. These people are believable. Same people who did not see a bubble are same one’s calling bottom.

    This is a fact based analysis of our current economy:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/sprott-its-real-economy-stupid

    We are nowhere near a bottom.

  28. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    Just heard on the radio there are major arrests of politicians going down in NJ at the moment.

  29. BC Bob says:

    “can’t fight the fed”

    I agree, if Tall Paul was running the show.

  30. Pol Clot says:

    coops (22)-

    Yes. But, you’re right on time for the short-selling opportunity of the century.

    “have i missed the buying opportunity of the century?”

  31. cooper says:

    it’s from yesterday but here’s a little “doom” from zerohedge:

    “Morgan Stanley’s Stephen Roach: “A Rude Awakening”

    “The Vice Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia destroys any last germinating green shoots.”

    “Green shoots are a very simplistic way to look at the world.” Why is it no surprise that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke came up with it.”

    it’s a 6 min. video clip-

    http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/07/morgan-stanleys-stephen-roach-rude.html

  32. Pol Clot says:

    freedy (25)-

    Look at the revenue misses, though.

    Nine-figure misses on the top line are all you need to know about the deflationary depression we’re now entering.

    The revenue misses will continue. However, the false, unsustainable profitability gained by draconian cuts will evaporate.

  33. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    “Why is it no surprise that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke came up with it.”

    Yep Bennie comes up with it and Steve Leisman repeats it every time he opens his mouth.

  34. Pol Clot says:

    HE (28)-

    Wake me up when they arrest the idiot in the guvnor’s mansion.

  35. freedy says:

    come on forget the rev. misses, markets
    are up,, thats what counts.

    sucker rally? shorts are being forced to cover.

    propels itself.

  36. freedy says:

    auto sales, firming up, house sales,firming
    no inflation, come on .

  37. Pol Clot says:

    freedy (35)-

    Too bad that all the buying and the short-covering are being generated among five or six giant computers on WS.

  38. Pol Clot says:

    freedy (36)-

    Gimme some buy recommendations. :)

  39. Pol Clot says:

    I think freedy is sas.

  40. cooper says:

    Pol 26
    thx for the breakdown… great point, the appraiser is just an observer.

  41. freedy says:

    401’s will be firming up,, barry told us
    he fixed it all.

  42. freedy says:

    all the lockup’s should help as well .

    NJ a very lovely state. from the top
    down.

  43. freedy says:

    ford,,, all is well. please rush to your local dealer .

  44. freedy says:

    this is barry’s stimulus coming into play.

    housing will become to big to fail, as we all get bailed out.

  45. freedy says:

    gary: no problem,, ignored by the street.
    ups, shipments down, no problem.

    who cares about unemployment.

  46. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    Peter Cammarano, Mayor of Hoboken, Arrested on Corruption Charges!!!

  47. make money says:

    Jobless Claims Rise to 554,000

    Greenshoots?

  48. grim says:

    From the Record:

    Feds making arrests in Bergen and Hudson counties this morning

    Federal authorities are making mass arrests in Hudson and Bergen counties this morning in a public corruption and money laundering investigation, sources said.

    Among those who were escorted into FBI headquarters in Newark were Secaucus Mayor Dennis Elwell, Hoboken Mayor Peter Cammarano, Jersey City Council President Mariano Vega, Jersey City Deputy Mayor Leona Baldini and Michael Manzo who is with the Jersey City fire department, federal authorities confirmed. Some 18 people have been taken into custody so far.

  49. NJGator says:

    N.J. politicians, rabbis arrested in federal money laundering sweep

    NEWARK — Federal authorities arrested dozens of people today in New York and New Jersey as part of a money laundering and corruption sweep. Those arrested included several New Jersey public officials and rabbis.

    The suspects are scheduled to appear in U.S. District Court in Newark later today. Those arrested include Hoboken Mayor Peter Cammarano, Secaucus Mayor Denis Elwell and Jersey City Deputy Mayor Leona Baldini, and Jersey City Council President Mario Vega.

    Nearly 20 people, including Cammarno, Elwell, and Vega, have already been lead into the FBI building in Newark to face the charges.

    http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2009/07/court_brooklyn_dummy_post.html

  50. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    U.S. 4-wk. avg. initial claims fall to 566,000

    U.S. continuing jobless claims fall to 6.22 mln

    U.S. initial jobless claims up by 30,000

    U.S. initial jobless claims rise to 554,000

  51. freedy says:

    the guy just got elected, shameless

  52. NJGator says:

    More names to come apparently…

    Dozens Arrested in New Jersey Corruption Probe

    NEWARK, NJ (AP) — FBI agents are sweeping across northern New Jersey Thursday, making arrests in what reportedly is described as a major corruption probe.

    READ: More Political News

    WNBC-TV in New York reported and showed images of the mayors of Hoboken and Secaucus being taken into FBI headquarters in Newark. The station also showed rabbis being taken into custody.

    Radio station New Jersey 101.5 FM reports the sweeps are taking place in Hudson, Bergen, Monmouth and Ocean counties.

    The stations say the probe centers on money-laundering and political bid rigging.

    http://www.wcbs880.com/Dozens-Arrested-in-NJ-Corruption-Probe/4860167

    FBI spokeswoman Myrna Williams tells The Associated Press the arrests will go on till noon. She would not provide any more information.

    Corruption has permeated New Jersey politics for years. Former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie takes credit for 130 convictions of elected and appointed officials on corruption charges.

    Christie is the Republican candidate for governor.

  53. Frank says:

    #47,
    He was in the office 21 days, that has to be a record.

  54. John says:

    when does the June Non-Existing Home sales come out?

  55. make money says:

    “can’t fight the fed”

    I agree, if Tall Paul was running the show.

    BC,

    What are the odds then the chosen one axes Benny and brings in Tal Paul off the bench. He’s been in the dog house since January.

  56. Sean says:

    re: #49 – Hahhahahah! Hoboken Mayor Cammarano was just elected, a wet behind the ears lawyer who is only 32 yrs old.

    Money Laundering and Rabbis? This is going to be a intereting Dirty Jersey story, I wonder if any of them are going to finger Corzine and the rest of the Democrats on the take.

    The Democratic Party in NJ are getting their just deserts for violating Federal Election laws and bringing down the rath of of the FBI.

  57. John says:

    Ford makes a great car. If I had a clunker I would be buying a 2010 Fushion.

    freedy says:
    July 23, 2009 at 8:20 am
    ford,,, all is well. please rush to your local dealer .

  58. gary says:

    FBI spokeswoman Myrna Williams tells The Associated Press the arrests will go on till noon.

    But… but… it was all for the sake of the children!

  59. All Hype says:

    John (55):

    They come out at 10 am.

  60. Pol Clot says:

    make (56)-

    Zero chance of Volcker at the Fed. He’s been marginalized from day one, as Summers rightly saw him as a threat and neutralized him. Personally, I think he knows the whole economy is a shambles and stays on the team in order not to panic the public.

    IMO, Volcker should quit and blow the whistle.

  61. Pol Clot says:

    When do the show trials and executions start?

  62. freedy says:

    stimulus package kicking in.

  63. 3b says:

    #6 grim:They should resume rising soon.

    I can buy the premise that prices may have bottoemd in some areas of the country, but resume rising? And soon? Based on what?

  64. NJGator says:

    I am offended that they are not arresting anyone from Essex County. Our elected officials are just as corrupt as their Hudson County counterparts.

  65. grim says:

    stimulus package kicking in.

    Tell me about it, driving Rt 80 in the morning is a dream.

    Forget about Obama paying my mortgage, Obama paved my highway! There is even a sign at the 80/23/46 intersection to tell me so.

  66. Ben says:

    The last person anyone from the Obama administration wants to hear from is Volcker. Remember, good ol Paul had the guts to literally create a recession and stick it out. Since 1980, it’s somehow become politically unacceptable for this country to even enter a recession. What the hell happened to this country’s balls? Are we that afraid of a year or two of stagnation?

  67. freedy says:

    yes, grim. its all good. seems Barry is
    taking care of us all.

  68. NJGator says:

    Black market body parts????

    FBI launches major NJ sweep, public officials involved
    July 23, 2009 • 7:36 am
    By Bob IngleThe FBI has launched a massive sweep across New Jersey today arresting some public officials and some rabbis. A source says the alleged crimes involved are international money laundrying, black market body parts and others. The source says Hudson, Monmouth and Ocean Counties are involved. No other details are available.

    http://blogs.app.com/politicspatrol/2009/07/23/fbi-launches-major-nj-sweep-public-officials-involved/

  69. 3b says:

    #13 cooper:are they really using short sales and foreclosures as comps?

    Why shouldn’t they?

  70. freedy says:

    Corzine, may even get reelected. all the arrests, a positive. only in NJ

  71. r says:

    In case anyone is wondering what political party Mayor Cammarano associates himself with, lets see who attended his inauguration 3 weeks ago.

    “Gov. Jon Corzine and Sen.s Robert Menendez (D-NJ) and Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ) were on hand for the occasion. Both Corzine and Menendez are Hoboken residents.

    In keeping with the unity theme, the master of ceremonies was Ines Garcia-Keim, the former campaign chairman for mayoral candidate Beth Mason. Keim went on to support Cammarano in the runoff election against candidate Dawn Zimmer, although Mason supported Zimmer.

    When Corzine spoke, he joked that it was great to see the democratic process play out in Hoboken, but that he felt like he “voted 10 times in three weeks.”

    http://www.hudsonreporter.com/printer_friendly/2882756

  72. Sean says:

    “A source says the alleged crimes involved are international money laundrying, black market body parts and others.”

    Body parts? As in Livers? Should they pick up Steve Jobs too?

  73. freedy says:

    the taco bell dog died. 15 years old. sad

  74. Frank says:

    #72,
    Who’s the guy with the turban on the picture??

  75. 3b says:

    #25 freddy:When you look behind all those earning numbers, they did not look all that good.

    Take a look again at Caterpillar, Coke, and Pepsi, and the pharma companies. You cannot keep “beating” earnings expectations, by layoffs, and one time acccounting tricks.\

    I am not impressed with those earnings #’s with the exception of Apple.

  76. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    Cammarano is/was/always will be a hoodlum who looks nice in a suit.

  77. freedy says:

    #76 does not matter. being ignored
    by the street.

    even big mac sales are up.

  78. All Hype says:

    This market is not even in the ballpark of reality. I went long a few months ago and made some good scratch. But I watch the markets and laugh to myself knowing that it is going up for no good reason.

    Clot, you are totally correct when you say that all that is going on is 6 supercomputers buying and selling with each other.

  79. Alap says:

    Thirty people, including two mayors, arrested in federal probe of public corruption in New Jersey, prosecutors say.

  80. NJGator says:

    N.J. officials, N.Y. rabbis caught in federal money laundering, corruption sweep
    by Joe Ryan/The Star-Ledger
    Thursday July 23, 2009, 8:15 AM
    NEWARK — A New Jersey assemblyman and the mayors of Hoboken and Secaucus were among public officials arrested this morning by FBI agents in a international money laundering and corruption probe that includes rabbis in the Syrian Jewish communities of Deal and Brooklyn.

    Assemblyman Daniel Van Pelt (R-Ocean), Hoboken Mayor Peter Cammarano, Secaucus Mayor Denis Elwell and Jersey City Council President Mariano Vega are among those who have been already been brought to the FBI building in Newark. Jersey City Deputy Mayor Leona Beldini has also been arrested. A total of 30 people have been taken into custody, officials said.

    The arrests are the result of a two year probe that began with an investigation of money transfers by members of the Syrian enclaves in Deal and Brooklyn. Those arrested this morning include key religious leaders in the tight-night, wealthy communities.

    The federal investigation then expanded into a public corruption probe.

    No indictments have been released, though court appearances are expected later today in U.S. District Court in Newark. Nearly 20 people have already been led into the FBI building in Newark as the sweep continues to unfold in two states.

    Agents also raided religious institutions to make arrests and collect information. An employee at the Ohel Yaacob synagogue on Ocean Avenue in Deal said authorities searched the office early this morning.

    The Monmouth County Prosecutor’s Office and the IRS took out at least three boxes from the Deal Yeshiva, as students were arriving at the s school. The Deal Yeshiva, on the corner of Brighton and Norwood avenues, is a prestigious religious school in town.

    Assemblyman Van Pelt, 44, is also the of Ocean Township, a post he has held since 1988. He holds degrees from The College of New Jersey (Criminal Justice) and Regent University (Public Policy and Government).

    Cammarano, 32, was elected mayor of Hoboken in June. He was elected Hoboken City Councilman-at-Large in 2005. According to his campaign website, Cammarano is an attorney at the law firm of Genova, Burns, & Vernoia, which has offices in New Jersey, New York and Pennsylvania.

    Cammarano previously worked as a law clerk for Superior Court Judge Kevin Callahan in Jersey City. He is a member of the New Jersey State Bar Association and the Association of the Federal Bar of the State of New Jersey, as well as the bar associations for Hudson, Bergen and Essex Counties. He has also worked as an adjunct professor at Montclair State University.

    Elwell, 64, has served for more than two decades as mayor and a member of the town council. Elwell and his council slate recently won victory in their contested Democratic June primary contests.

    Elwell is the president of a family-owned trucking company. He is a former Secaucus Board of Education member and a decorated Vietnam combat veteran.

    http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2009/07/nj_officials_ny_rabbis_caught.html

  81. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [81] gator

    I should have a great view of this from my offices. I have some binoculars. Gonna go see the show now

    Oh, and Gator, you’ve got mail.

  82. gman says:

    grim,

    gotta love that smooth route 80 pavement!!

  83. John says:

    I thought they only took tips.

    N.J. officials, N.Y. rabbis caught in federal money laundering, corruption sweep

  84. 3b says:

    Ford had a 638 million operating loss for the quarter, yet some one tme pixie dust shows a “profit”,and the market is up. What incredible nonsense!!

  85. Stu says:

    Freedy,

    Keep paying attention to the MSM. The same people who had you believing that Saddam had weapons of mass destruction and who claimed there was no bubble in housing are back to tell you that the the DOW is going to 15,000.

  86. freedy says:

    ford’s doing great. took down their entire
    lines. the logo is even been hocked.

    gm, will follow , so will chry.

    barry motors said so

  87. freedy says:

    stu:

    does not matter. barry said he’s got it turned.

  88. cooper says:

    3b #70…I think they should be/hoping they’ll be used as comps… especially if more than %25 of home sales are distressed…

  89. freedy says:

    barry also said the cops are stupid.

    guys right on top of things.

  90. 3b says:

    #90 cooper: I agree.

  91. BC Bob says:

    cooper/3b,

    Why should real sales be included in the comps? The are only following the script of our govt. Do you actually want BLS to report real unemployment in their headline #?

  92. BC Bob says:

    They

  93. lisoosh says:

    From the WSJ article in #4:

    “an idea that enrages the many bloggers who cherish the view that we haven’t seen anything yet and that the true housing Armageddon lies ahead.

    Part of the bear case involves the historical observation that it takes many years for house prices to bottom out because they are “sticky,” ”

    Based on the language used I would say that reporter has been reading this blog.

  94. Sean says:

    re #91 – Barry is the stupid one, as President he should not be making negative comments about the people who protect him 24×7.

  95. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [96] sean

    I was born in Cambridge, and lived there for awhile, and I can tell you that this won’t sit well with a lot of the folks that don’t live in 02138. Sure as hell won’t sit well with cops in Mass.

    I think I can make some money with bumper stickers that say “Gates was Stupid” or “Fcuk Gates.” People will buy them just so they don’t get speeding tickets on the Pike or 128.

  96. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [81] gator,

    Nothing going on at FBI bldg, except a lone Ch. 7 van waiting outside. Our view of the courthouse isn’t that great.

    I walked by the hallway where our crim defense team offices are, and no one is there except for some associates who alluded to a “fire drill.”

  97. 3b says:

    #95 lisoosh: The whole idea behing my quick read of that article, (and I belive we have seen similiar articles in the past).

    Is that housing prices will go up because of an increasing population as opposed to Japan.

    I would simply offer that in order for that to happen, this growing population will need good jobs to pay for those increasing prices.

    And with a lack of new jobs and flat wages (for most of this decade) for those who do have jobs, how do we get the increase in prices? Just asking.

  98. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    U.S. June home resales above consensus 4.85 mln

  99. 3b says:

    June existing Home sales up 3.6% better than expected. Of course!!!

  100. Anon E. Moose says:

    Worthy of note in the reporting on the corruption arests today — can you guess the party affiliation of those arrested?

    Assemblyman Daniel Van Pelt (R-Ocean), Hoboken Mayor Peter Cammarano, Secaucus Mayor Denis Elwell and Jersey City Council President Mariano Vega are among those who have been already been brought to the FBI building in Newark. Jersey City Deputy Mayor Leona Beldini has also been arrested. A total of 30 people have been taken into custody, officials said.

    So Van Pelt is a Republican, and the others have no party affiliation?

    No media bias here!

  101. gman says:

    The bottom in prices is near…

  102. Sean says:

    Funny comment this AM, calling the Deal Rabbis the kosher-nostra.

  103. 3b says:

    #103 gman:The bottom in prices is near…

    Not in our area grasshopper.

  104. gman says:

    #103

    I disagree.

  105. abe says:

    Sentiments?
    UPS profit down, sees business stabilizing
    9:42am EDT
    CIT bond advisers to push for bankruptcy: report
    9:15am EDT
    Ford posts profit after restructuring, shares jump
    8:49am EDT
    AT&T profit and revenue beat Street
    8:47am EDT
    McDonald’s quarterly profit falls

  106. abe says:

    3M profit surges past estimates, stock climbs
    8:13am EDT
    Wal-Mart woos laptop shoppers
    7:53am EDT
    Porsche axes CEO, sets stage for VW merger
    7:44am EDT
    Xerox second quarter profit falls on weak demand
    7:17am EDT
    South Korea fines Qualcomm $208 million in anti-trust case
    6:44am EDT
    Roche bullish on markets, ups flu drug capacity
    6:06am EDT
    Toyota to start talks on pulling out of JV with GM
    5:54am EDT
    Ericsson says bids for Nortel wireless assets
    5:37am EDT
    Ex-Morgan Stanley star Hendel set to join UBS: report
    3:23am EDT
    Hyundai posts record Q2 profit, gaining share
    6:31am EDT

  107. abe says:

    Sentiments?
    UPS profit down, sees business stabilizing
    9:42am EDT
    CIT bond advisers to push for bankruptcy: report
    9:15am EDT
    Ford posts profit after restructuring, shares jump
    8:49am EDT
    AT&T profit and revenue beat Street

  108. 3b says:

    #106 gman: You can disagree all you want, does not change the fact that prices have not finished declining in our area.

    We will be one of the last if not the last to bottom Seen it all before.

  109. kettle1 says:

    Stu,

    interesting contrast:

    China’s electricity consumption is down for the last 7-8 months and yet we get this report?

    China’s Magic Numbers

    China, [last] Thursday, announced its second-quarter gross domestic product-a big deal here. It’s not just the Chinese government’s top priority but a nearly sacrosanct number. Growth came in at an astounding 7.9 percent. But could China’s GDP really grow that fast even with the collapse of global trade? Economists at top brokerages and investment banks say yes. Debate raged a decade ago over whether or not to trust the data or how much officials at various layers were fudging the numbers. But now the question is mostly forgotten because alternative data is so hard to come by. Some independent economists and academics still have lingering doubts, however.

    But today disbelief centers on how GDP growth could be so robust amid deflation, falling foreign-direct investment, collapsing trade, plunging corporate profits, and, most notably, waning electricity usage. China is probably the only country in the world to ever report positive GDP growth and shrinking power consumption at the same time.

    A boost to the GDP may simply not translate into real economic growth. The government stimulus has also prodded banks to release a tidal wave of credit, less than 5 percent of which has gone to small and midsize enterprises. Hogging the bank loans, state-backed firms now have enough funds to eat up their private competitors, though the private sector remains the country’s major source of employment. Speaking of which, unemployment data in China is sorely lacking and, as a result, largely ignored by most investors and economists. Since GDP trumps all, analysts can hail China as recession-proof, even after officials estimate some 20 million to 25 million jobs were lost among migrant workers. Whether or not GDP grew by 7.9 percent in the second quarter, the average Chinese person definitely did not get 7.9 percent richer.

    http://www.thebigmoney.com/articles/explainer/2009/07/17/china-s-magic-numbers?page=full

  110. freedy says:

    market rally continues what recession

  111. freedy says:

    shorts all washed up . finished dow to 10k
    spx breaks out, naz,, continues.

    in the meantime housing is getting better.

    barry has handled this all very well

  112. HighlyTaxedMontclairian says:

    In the next year or 2 my wife and I would like to buy a house AND keep our condo in Montclair as a rental unit. In today’s conditions – we would just about break even on the unit (maybe have to pay out $50-75 a month)

    It’s obvious mortgages are harder to get now as lending institutions are getting back to fundamentals to judge how much one can qualify for and to whom they give money too. So my question is will lenders give us a hard time with this? Both of us have excellent credit, no debt, (other than mortgage) we’ll have ~25-30% down for the house (we’re envisioning between 500-575k)and we bring in between 170-180k a year. Will we have a hard time getting this mortgage? We owe 260k on our current note.

  113. yo'me says:

    Jersey: The Most Politically Corrupt Place on Earth

    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/32103850/ns/local_news-philadelphia_pa/

    WOW!!BEATS THE 3rd World countries?

  114. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [104] sean,

    Kosher Nostra. That one got a laugh around here.

    FWIW, I will have no further comments on this story.

  115. kettle1 says:

    Beware of China Buying U.S. Assets — Is It Too Late for America?

    As the president and founder of an international financial consulting company that works closely with Chinese companies seeking to go public on U.S. stock market exchanges, I see the enormity of China’s global financial influence and power on a daily basis. American assets are at such low historical values, they are prime targets for China. China’s international reserves are over $2 trillion and the potential of what China can buy in the United States is colossal. I fear it may be too late for America, but I strongly believe as a nation that we should be significantly more concerned and proactive about protecting our assets.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/joseph-meuse/beware-of-china-buying-us_b_242141.html

  116. yo'me says:

    China’s electricity consumption is down for the last 7-8 months and yet we get this report

    Going GREEN?

  117. Zack says:

    #113
    I doubt you will breakeven on your 260K note. I am not sure about the rentals in Montclair, but I would expect it to be very soft. Take a hard look at the carrying costs on the 260K note.

  118. BC Bob says:

    “The bottom in prices is near…”

    [103],

    Not close. This is just starting to percolate.

  119. “The bottom in prices is near…”

    If you were talking about SoCal, maybe.

  120. Punch My Ticket says:

    Clot, I’d be interested in hearing your solution to the appraisal problem. The pre-crash method had conflicts of interest that contributed to the mess significantly.

    Maybe the easiest solution has nothing to do with appraisals. Let’s just ban securitization instead. There’s nothing like putting your own money on the line to concentrate the mind of most people, bankers included.

  121. BC Bob says:

    kettle [116],

    Speak Mandarin?

  122. HighlyTaxedMontclairian says:

    I’m getting numbers from what other units are currently rented for in the building but as you said it does require some further investigation into cost of carrying the note. Would we run into a tough time getting a mortgage on another home?

  123. Stu says:

    HighlyTaxedMontclairian (113):

    We are in the same situation except your condo is our multi-family. We own in Montclair as well.

    http://njexperts.com/2009/04/20/mortgage-approval-guidelines-for-purchasing-a-home-without-selling-your-existing-property-first/

  124. Zack says:

    #121
    “Maybe the easiest solution has nothing to do with appraisals. Let’s just ban securitization instead.”

    Ain’t gonna happen. You are taking the cash cow away from banksters and big bonusses + loss of jobs in this sector which may not be politically feasible.

  125. yo'me says:

    113 Are you breaking your mortgage contract if you are going to rent?

  126. HighlyTaxedMontclairian says:

    Stu – thanks! Cleared up a lot of questions. Any advice on getting taxes / home value reassessed?

  127. gman says:

    #109

    I did not say prices around here will not keep declining.. but expect the rate of declines to slow and by early, perhaps mid 2010 prices are going to flatten. I don’t think prices will decline more than another 10% from the point they are at now. That will bring total declines somewhere between 25-30% in most NJ areas.

    I think many people do not believe prices are going to flatten because many properties are not currently priced right. In my quest for a home, I’ve personally come across multiple properties that are priced at 2006/2007 levels simply because the homeowners bought their homes during the peak and now need to move. Instead of bringing the check to closing, they make an effort to sell at close to what they paid. Can’t blame them for trying, but there are few suckers these days.

    I don’t expect things to get *too* much cheaper around here. Historically expensive areas are going to remain expensive (Bergen county) and areas to the west (Sussex, Warren, etc) where they can still build will continue to get cheaper for a while.

  128. BC Bob says:

    If anybody thinks the bottom, prices, has been established in NNJ you are sadly mistaken or possibly comatose. The biggest bubble, charade and fraud in our history does not unwind in 2 years. This storm is gathering steam. The real tsunami will hit in 2010-2012. Housing bubbles don’t completely retrace in 2 years. Go back to the archives, 5-7 years, peak/trough.

    Get comfortable, the next 3 years will be one for the record books.

  129. Stu says:

    127: “Any advice on getting taxes / home value reassessed?”

    That’s one for my wife NJGator. It can be done easily pro se if you have the proof.

  130. 3b says:

    #128 gman: historically expensive areas cannot remaine xpensive without corresponding good jobs and robust incoem growth. You should have seen what you could buy on historically expensive Beregn co after the last bust.

    And that was when average property taxes were 3-4k a year on a decent house.

    And the was in much better shape than the financial basket case it has become today.

  131. HighlyTaxedMontclairian says:

    Good point…I do remember seeing that verbage in the contract if the place is used as a rental. Wondering if I can put a clause in the lease agreement that the renter is responsible for liability insurance? This way lender won’t find out?

  132. kettle1 says:

    BC,

    Mandarin lessons, a new growth industry!!!!

  133. veto that says:

    Dissident HEHEHE says:
    “Cammarano is/was/always will be a hoodlum who looks nice in a suit.”

    Dis,
    i know cammarano and elwell. Had done business with their towns for a number of years. They always struck me as the straight forward types that wouldnt be sucked into this stuff. Of course they would do their sales pitch for campaign donations but thats not illegal. Other publics officials in Hudson County, well… I probably could have done a citizens arrest on the spot and have a jury convict. but they dont get caught?
    Cammarano may be young lawyer but always gave me impression of brilliance. Even watching jeapardy drinking beers at bar, he doesnt miss one question. Elwell i knew less but still spent a good amount of time around him. He’s proud of his military achievements in nam… thats what he likes to talk about. Struck me as somewhat ethical. Id be really surprised if he was conviceted of shipping body parts.

  134. John says:

    I love the smell of a bull market in the morning.

    I wonder how many people bailed out of stocks during Nov to March are still on sidelines kicking themselves. They are now stuck with two choices, stay out and how we double dip to the March Low or Get in and risk even further damage as they missed the runup and if there is another correction they will really get slaughtered.

    Dow 9K looks sweet to people who kept plowing in money the last 9 months. Dow 9K is ugly to someone who sold it all in March of 2009.

  135. kettle1 says:

    BC,

    people aslo forget that this is credit led bubble collapse, not RE led.

    Until banks and consumers can discharge or restructure their debt to a sustainable level, through bankruptcy, write downs or other various methods, then there is no bottom.

  136. 3b says:

    From marketwatch: 31% of all sales were from distressed properties.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/june-existing-home-sales-rise-again-2009-07-23

  137. Stu says:

    All landlords should require renters insurance. It’s the best deal going. Most coverage is about $100/year. Considering how common burglary is, it’s a no-brainer.

  138. John says:

    Until Gold breaks 1,000 an oz we will take your predictions with a grain of salt.

    BC Bob says:
    July 23, 2009 at 10:50 am
    If anybody thinks the bottom, prices, has been established in NNJ you are sadly mistaken or possibly comatose. The biggest bubble, charade and fraud in our history does not unwind in 2 years. This storm is gathering steam. The real tsunami will hit in 2010-2012. Housing bubbles don’t completely retrace in 2 years. Go back to the archives, 5-7 years, peak/trough.

    Get comfortable, the next 3 years will be one for the record books.

  139. Sean says:

    re #134 – veto re: “straight forward type” Anyone who would walk away from their own child and then have to be dragged into court by Social Services and forced to pay child support by court order is capable of allot of misdeeds, I am not surprised at all.

  140. Stu says:

    John,

    We are still in a bear market. Unless you are selling your equities (which your tone lends itself to believe the contrary), shut the hell up.

  141. freedy says:

    you people just refuse to believe barry.

    he fixed it all.

  142. yo'me says:

    Until banks and consumers can discharge or restructure their debt to a sustainable level, through bankruptcy, write downs or other various methods, then there is no bottom.

    Toxic assets that the tax payers are holding and keep on growing every month foreclosure numbers are up.

  143. BC Bob says:

    “Dow 9K looks sweet to people who kept plowing in money the last 9 months. Dow 9K is ugly to someone who sold it all in March of 2009.”

    How does Dow 9,000 look to to those that have been long since the late 90’s? Buy and hold, a recipe for disaster. Got your hat stored away?

    http://gothamist.com/attachments/jen/2008_10_dow1000.jpg

  144. John says:

    For you newcomers, the following rules apply to this blog:

    No hair pulling.
    No pepper games.
    No Tickee, No Shirtee
    No dancing on the bar.
    No shirt , no shoes, no service.

  145. Stu says:

    Look at the Danaher earnings. There is no recovery in progress. Only draconian job cuts leading to slightly (and I emphasize this) improved earnings.

    Until consumer spending picks up, this latest rally is no more than Wall Street gaming fools too stupid to not pay attention to underlying fundamentals.

    Disclaimer: I like to pump midgets.

  146. Clotpoll says:

    Green Shoots? I think not:

    LandAmerica (title & credit reporting behemoth) files for Chapter 11 in VA today.

    Operations shut down.

    This is the firm our mortgage guys get trimerge (deep, three-agency) credit reports from. They are all now getting ready to go to the bar down the street and drink beer for the rest of the day.

  147. gman says:

    #129

    What makes you think prices are going to continue to decline.

    Lets take an example.

    A house was built in 2000 and sold for 250k. In just a few short years, at it’s peak it increased to 550k. It is now priced at 425k.

    Are you saying you think that house will depreciate to 350k, 300k or all the way back to 250k?

  148. NJGator says:

    Nom 82 – Right back at ya

  149. BC Bob says:

    Just a bunch of buffoons cheering an indice that is lower than where it was trading in 1999. Of course there are exceptions, all those that sold the high, got short and subsequently bought the bottom. Kudos to you!

  150. Al says:

    Hey John, I havent’ withdraw any money fromt my stock accounts/401k… Dow 9000 does nothing for me… I wanty it back to 14,000. 9000 is still 40% down… I kept putting money in with the same speed I was putting them in before… So participate on the downside, participate on the upside – evens out to -20% nominal loss right now.

  151. make money says:

    Kettle(116),

    Assets will get a lot cheaper when priced in comoditties. This is why China is using reserves to buy up assets and commodities at the same time. Not bad for a bunch of commies.

    John,

    I never made it to a G2G but I promise to show up for labor bay BBQ. Just give up already and call it what it is.

  152. 3b says:

    10 yr Treas yields are rising rapidly this morning. What does that do to the housing recovery,6-6.50% mtg rates in the next couple of weeks? 7% by Labor Day. I cannot wait until we get to 7.25-7.50.

  153. Sean says:

    See I knew we would find a real estate angle in today’s arrests.

    “Disgraced real-estate mogul Solomon Dwek is apparently a key witness in the FBI corruption cases today, which have led to the arrest of about 30”

    http://www.app.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20090723/NEWS/90723016&s=d&page=#pluckcomments

  154. veto that says:

    “The biggest bubble, charade and fraud in our history does not unwind in 2 years. This storm is gathering steam. The real tsunami will hit in 2010-2012. Housing bubbles don’t completely retrace in 2 years. Go back to the archives, 5-7 years, peak/trough.”

    BC, your commentary as usual doesnt leave much to argue about. but dont forget to factor in the limitless amount of manipulation the geniouses at the healm are willing to implement.

  155. BC Bob says:

    [148],

    We will retrace the entire charade, probably overshoot. What’s so dramatic about that? Markets have been functioning like this for the last 2,000 years. Crazy? How did a projected 20% decline, stated in 2005, sound?

    The only caveat is hyper-inflation. However, not on the radar, at this time.

  156. #147 – LandAmerica (title & credit reporting behemoth) files for Chapter 11 in VA today.

    Wow. I wasn’t expecting that. I didn’t know they did credit in addition to title.

    What does this mean for LandAmerica title insurance policies?

  157. NJGator says:

    Joe Doria not surprisingly involved too..

    July 24, 2009
    2 N.J. Mayors Arrested in Broad Inquiry on Corruption
    By DAVID M. HALBFINGER
    The mayors of Hoboken and Secaucus, a state assemblyman and dozens of others were rounded up early Thursday as the F.B.I. swept across four counties in New Jersey as part of a two-year corruption and money-laundering investigation that ranged from the Jersey Shore to Brooklyn and has even reached into the State House in Trenton.

    Agents raided the home of Joseph V. Doria Jr., commissioner of the state Department of Community Affairs, who also is the former mayor of Bayonne, an official confirmed Thursday morning.

    Among the roughly 30 people arrested by mid-morning were Hoboken Mayor Peter J. Cammarano III and Secaucus Mayor Dennis Elwell, both Democrats, and Assemblyman Daniel M. Van Pelt, a Republican from Forked River, in Ocean County. Mr. Cammarano, who turned 32 on Wednesday, was elected mayor June 9 and sworn in July 1, after serving as councilman-at-large since 2005.

    Also brought to the Newark office of the F.B.I. were the president of the city council in Jersey City, Mariano Vega, and that city’s deputy mayor, Leona Beldini.

    Federal prosecutors said the arrests included several rabbis from enclaves of Syrian Jews in Brooklyn and from Deal and Elberon, communities along the Jersey Shore in Ocean County.

    The Asbury Park Press reported that the investigation involved the Deal Yeshiva, a religious school which teaches children in the Sephardic Jewish tradition. The United States Attorney’s office in Newark scheduled a noon news conference.

    Newark Mayor Cory Booker, who has fought corruption in New Jersey’s largest city, told The Star-Ledger it’s “an unbelievable morning so far.”

    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/24/nyregion/24jersey.html

  158. BC Bob says:

    veto [155],

    I hear you. However, manipulation can only delay the inevitable. Yes, you can freeze, hope, project, buy time and print your ass off. That said, the market always/eventually wins. No govt in history has been able to stem the tide of a business cycle. This govt will not be the first. Govt intervention can only make matters worse.

  159. Stu says:

    DOW 15,000 prediction article is pinned to the front of Yahoo Finance. Charles Lemonides who boldy makes this call has made some other brilliant calls in the past…

    “(I)n Washington Mutual, you’re getting in there at less than 10 times this year’s earnings estimate. Earnings are going to be growing if not 10 percent, 15 percent, over the next two years. If you’re in there at less than a double-digit multiple, and you’ve got 15-percent earnings growth going out, I don’t see how you get hurt.”

    Believe what you want to believe of course.

  160. Clotpoll says:

    punch (121)-

    Appraisers are maggots. The appraisal business is a dead-money, small-time adjunct to the process of buying and selling RE.

    IMO, you’re on the right track as far as solutions: by shutting down securitization and moving to a portfolio or covered bond-type solution to the secondary market, the incentive for rigged-up appraisals is dampened.

    Take away the incentive to cheat, and the appraisals will become more accurate.

  161. 3b says:

    #148 gman:Are you saying you think that house will depreciate to 350k, 300k or all the way back to 250k?

    It surely is possible. I bought my first house during the 80’s real estate bubble,and sold it 10 years after for $2500 less than I paid for it, and that is not counting substanial improvements made to the property.

    And lots of people sold co-ops/condos at 50 to 60% less than they paid for them during the last bust/recession.

    Ironically there are 1 bedroom co-ops in my (blue ribbony bergen co train) town with asking prices now of 175K (and sitting), the peak bubble sold price back in the late 80’s was 140k.

    20 years,and virtually 0 appreciation.

  162. BC Bob says:

    Stu,

    I hope we go to 20K on the Dow. What will the Dow/Gold ratio look like then?

  163. gman says:

    #156

    No way! There is not a chance in hell the price of that home is going back to 250k or better yet, below it. I say no lower than 375k.

    My rationale is simple. NJ is not overbuilt like many other areas. As a matter a fact you really can’t even build any new homes in a huge swath of northern NJ (Highlands). Also there are too many jobs that command high pay around here… too much money in this area.

  164. Stu says:

    Another brilliant Lemonides call.

    “We’ve loved General Motors ( GM : Research , Estimates ) for a long time because we think management is doing a lot of right things, in terms of unlocking shareholder value. I think Carl Icahn has caught onto the fact that there is an opportunity there for management to keep unlocking shareholder value. The pieces are clearly worth twice today’s price, and the company is going to do well through the current economic cycle.”

  165. 3b says:

    #164 gman: There is not a chance in hell? Trotting out the same old tired, arguements, which by the way were the same in the early 90’s, too much money in this area, we are not built out,and all the rest.

  166. gman says:

    #162

    I think in order for home prices to decline significantly from here one of these things would need to occur:

    1) Massive unemployment resulting in increased foreclosures
    2) Significant reduction in wages resulting in reduced affordability
    3) Mass exodus of business or general population away from NJ
    4) Highlands restrictions on new home building removed
    5) Massive increase in taxes resulting in reduced affordability

    Of course I am talking very specifically about northern NJ.

  167. NJGator says:

    127 HighlyTaxedMontclairian – It’s too late to appeal this year’s assessment. My advice would be to have your realtor keep giving you info on comparable sales this year – you’ll be looking at the period of 10/1/08-9/30/09 for the 2010 tax year. If comparable condos are selling for less than your assessment, you’ll want to file an appeal with the Essex County Board of Taxation. The deadline to file will be 4/1/10.

    Alternatively, you can take the easier route of hiring an attorney. In which case, they will do all the work, but you will have to pony up for the filing fees, and appraisal and then hand over half of your first year’s savings to the lawyer.

  168. kettle1 says:

    BC 163

    private ownershiop of gold would be outlawed again before the messiahs finance buddies let gold sell for 15-20K/oz. that would be a very nasty bubble spike as well

  169. 3b says:

    3-M Profits fall 15% for the quarter, stock is up. OK if you guys say so.

    The company is predicting a pick up in sales for consumer electronics later this year.

    OK if you guys say so.

  170. veto that says:

    3b,
    Just out of curiosity,
    What type of neighborhood/school district were you in during the 80s/90s, when your house didn’t appreciate for ten years?
    Also, what years did you buy and sell?

  171. BC Bob says:

    [164],

    The same argument we heard, on this site back in 2005, why prices in this area will NEVER decline. Overbuilt was never a crieria that I evaluated. Look at the “Prime” mortgages that are adjusting soon; alt-a, pick a payment, i/o, etc.. Throw into the equation continuing job losses, real earnings declining, finance industry jobs that are not coming back, and hamsters buried in a sea of debt.

    A complete recipe for disaster. Like I said back in 2005, I guarantee that I will be in a position to pay 30-40% off peak. As a matter of fact, I have seen many properties that would meet this criteria. Unfortunately, they were overpriced.

  172. nwnj says:

    BC Bob says:
    July 23, 2009 at 11:01 am

    “Dow 9K looks sweet to people who kept plowing in money the last 9 months. Dow 9K is ugly to someone who sold it all in March of 2009.”

    How does Dow 9,000 look to to those that have been long since the late 90’s? Buy and hold, a recipe for disaster. Got your hat stored away?

    http://gothamist.com/attachments/jen/2008_10_dow1000.jpg

    How do we spot this top? It feels a lot like 2007.

  173. BC Bob says:

    “private ownershiop of gold would be outlawed”

    kettle,

    Drugs are also illegal. Who cares what laws this govt enacts. You think it will be outlawed in BIC-CAN?

  174. kettle1 says:

    Gman 168

    item 1,2,3, and 5 are already underway and growing

    I think in order for home prices to decline significantly from here one of these things would need to occur:

    1) Massive unemployment resulting in increased foreclosures
    2) Significant reduction in wages resulting in reduced affordability
    3) Mass exodus of business or general population away from NJ
    4) Highlands restrictions on new home building removed
    5) Massive increase in taxes resulting in reduced affordability

  175. yo'me says:

    While balance sheets might be simplified, income statements would acquire new complexities. Some gains and losses would count in net income. These would include changes in the values of all equity securities and almost all derivatives. Interest payments, dividends and credit losses would go in net, too, as would realized gains and losses. So would fluctuations in all debt instruments with derivatives embedded in their structures

    GOOD TIME TO BE AN ACCOUNTANT

  176. kettle1 says:

    BC

    true, but do we see a paper gold dislocation before we get to that point? what would happen in modern markets if private ownership of gold is outlawed and you happen to own some GLD?

    i agree the government will only be successful in pushing it out of their control and into foreign/black markets, but could be quite a mess

  177. gman says:

    #164

    30% off peak would be in line with my expectations — About an additional 10% from where we are now. I’d say that’s about as far as we are going to go unless one of my criteria from post 168 are met or internet rates spikes up to 7, 8 or 9%.

    Personally, I think an interest rate spike is the thing to watch, as a spike in rates has recently proved to have a strong negative effect on sales. Big Ben can’t keep interest rates low forever.

  178. 3b says:

    #172 veto: Wwe were not the only ones, it was across the board in Bergen Co/North Jersey/NYC metro area at the time. Bought in 88, sold in 98.

    And it was and still is a Bergen Co Blue Ribbon train town close to NYC.

  179. kettle1 says:

    Gman,

    i believe the term you are looking for is that NJ will only fall another 10% because of our Sea Of Wealth.

    Ask Pretorious how that argument worked out.

  180. BC Bob says:

    kettle [178],

    Hold the physical, you take delivery and store.

    Gotta go, lot of digging today.

  181. BC Bob says:

    “Sea Of Wealth”

    kettle,

    Blast from the past.

  182. Clotpoll says:

    3b (153)-

    Just wait a few more trading sessions.

    Then, TPTB will tank stocks and trigger another “flight to safety” Treasury rally.

    It’s getting to the point where this rigged-up pingpong between debt/equity is becoming very predictable.

  183. Clotpoll says:

    Of course, the one constant we can count on is that the gubmint will continue their gold leasing (shorting) shenaningans through their bullion bank flunky, GS.

    TPTB has decided gold must be suppressed at any and all costs.

  184. Ben says:

    Governments have been fighting the law of supply and demand for thousands of years. They have never won and can never win. The US has bankrupted itself going from the richest nation in the world to the most in debt nation in the world trying to right the law of supply demand for 2 decades now. Once the market delivers the knockout blow, it’s not going to be pretty, unless you yourself bet on the winner. Oil will win. Gold will win. Silver will win. China? I’m not so sure. We can nuke China. We can’t nuke the gold.

  185. Clotpoll says:

    tosh (157)-

    Very confusing, as LandAmerica has several divisions, and the title guys (I think) BK’d last year and were being bought by another outfit.

  186. 3b says:

    #185 clot: True, it is actually funny, (if it were not so sad), because it is so obvious.

  187. Clotpoll says:

    gman (164)-

    Put down that pipe.

    I deal with this stuff in the field every day, and I can assure you that your assumptions are all bullshit.

  188. 3b says:

    #184 BC Bob: “Everybody wants to live here”

  189. veto that says:

    3b, which town? Just curious.

    I hate to repeat the blue ribbon bs but im seeing a huge difference in declines depending on what the town is. Some of the stronger towns near me are barely down 15%. and some townhouses are above 2006 prices.

    Also, what years did you buy and sell?
    Im wondering if you bought at the exact 1987 top and sold at the exact 1997 bottom.

    bye the way, your answer to these questions wont change much of anything.

  190. yo'me says:

    Once the market delivers the knockout blow, it’s not going to be pretty, unless you yourself bet on the winner. Oil will win. Gold will win. Silver will win. China? I’m not so sure. We can nuke China. We can’t nuke the gold

    In a World War 2 things only counts for survival
    1.shelter
    2.Food in your mouth

  191. Clotpoll says:

    gman (168)-

    Four of those five points you made are well underway.

    The fifth, Highlands Act repeal, won’t matter. Repeal the thing, and let them build co-ops on swampland. It will just serve to swell an already-bloated inventory.

  192. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    Veto,

    I’ve only seen Cammarano in council meeetings. He always struck me as the guy who THOUGHT he was the smartest guy in the room. Match that with his ambition and ego and you see how he ends up where he ended up today.

  193. John says:

    I am holding out for Dow 14K!!!!!

    nwnj says:
    July 23, 2009 at 11:29 am
    BC Bob says:
    July 23, 2009 at 11:01 am

    “Dow 9K looks sweet to people who kept plowing in money the last 9 months. Dow 9K is ugly to someone who sold it all in March of 2009.”

    How does Dow 9,000 look to to those that have been long since the late 90’s? Buy and hold, a recipe for disaster. Got your hat stored away?

    http://gothamist.com/attachments/jen/2008_10_dow1000.jpg

    How do we spot this top? It feels a lot like 2007.

  194. BC Bob says:

    “He always struck me as the guy who THOUGHT he was the smartest guy in the room. Match that with his ambition and ego and you see how he ends up where he ended up today.”

    he,

    My bad. I thought you were describing Cassano, AIG.

  195. Secondary Market says:

    in keeping tabs on the so. jersey (cherry hilly, haddonfield, etc)and south east pennsylvania markets (philly, main line towns, etc.) i really don’t think north jersey is going to be the last one to leave this party.
    these areas held up relatively well over the past year and now are finally showing significant cracking signs. the adage of philly being different because of the equilibrium of steady home prices and income factors have weakened and i’m finally starting to see 07-08 purchases desperately begging to be sold at purchase price. i estimated this market to be around 6 month behind national or northern jersey trends but it’s shaping up in my opinion to be about 8-12 months behind.
    i’ve got a low ball offer on house on the east side of cherry hill and if it’s not accepted, i resign the lease and choose the pic of the litter next year.

  196. 3b says:

    #193 veto River Edge/Oradell

    1987-1997.

  197. veto that says:

    BC,
    like Cassano, Cammarano was put in place by the previous ego maniac, who needed someone slightly less competent so his legacy would grow with time, rather than become diluted.

    Except, i believe that both were smarter and more capable then their predecessors, if not only for playing coy enough to get the post while still maintaining their own self loving arrogance.

  198. veto that says:

    3b, good district. but you did buy and sell near perfect top and bottoms. except ny metro didnt peak until 1988-89
    Case shiller NY metro shows that 1987 and 1997 were even, so your anectdata gives me confidence in the index.

  199. chicagofinance says:

    3b says:
    July 23, 2009 at 11:27 am
    3-M Profits fall 15% for the quarter, stock is up. OK if you guys say so.
    The company is predicting a pick up in sales for consumer electronics later this year. OK if you guys say so.

    3b: you do not have to like or agree with what you are observing; however, if you ignore it, then you are on a path to wealth destruction…..

  200. Ben says:

    “In a World War 2 things only counts for survival
    1.shelter
    2.Food in your mouth”

    Is that why they had US soldiers carrying around gold coins in their emergency supplies? We aren’t going to World War, but I suggest you read up on the people that did. A lot of people abandoned their homes and fled elsewhere. You can take your gold with you. Your home? Not so much.

  201. John says:

    Nasdaq winning streak longest in 17 years!!! ChiFi the Trend is your friend short term. Just for fun what % correction are you predecting for the S&P?

  202. BC Bob says:

    “Why Everyone Is Wrong – This Isn’t a Bottom”

    “There are four items in place that are tricking people into calling a bottom, when in fact three of these items are temporary. The result is an artificial restriction of supply and artificial pumping of demand.”

    1) It’s the seasonally strongest buying season

    2) There’s a foreclosure moratorium about to end

    3) Federal tax credits offered for 1st time homebuyers

    4) Historically low mortgage rates (this may or may not change soon)

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/150029-the-housing-crash-isn-t-over-here-s-how-to-profit?ref=patrick.net

  203. 3b says:

    #205 chgo: OH I understand,and I am certainly not ignoring it,and I am profiting off it as much as I can.

    But the rationale is convoluted/tortured,and therefore not sustainable. So I plan accordingly.

  204. Stu says:

    Sean (200): I think that PDF contains the lost Soprano’s episode. I can’t believe some of the dialogue in there. Good Graces? Ha ha ha.

  205. NJGator says:

    NJ.com has the live video the the presser starting in about a minute.

    A release issued this afternoon details the charges:

    — Peter Cammarano III, the newly elected mayor of Hoboken and an attorney, charged with
    accepting $25,000 in cash bribes, including $10,000 last Thursday, from an undercover
    cooperating witness.

    — L. Harvey Smith, a New Jersey Assemblyman and recent mayoral candidate in Jersey
    City, charged along with an aide of taking $15,000 in bribes to help get approvals from
    high-level state agency officials for building projects.

    — Daniel Van Pelt, a New Jersey Assemblyman, charged with accepting a $10,000 bribe.

    — Dennis Elwell, mayor of Secaucus, charged with taking a $10,000 cash bribe.

    — Anthony Suarez, mayor of Ridgefield and an attorney, charged with agreeing to accept a
    $10,000 corrupt cash payment for his legal defense fund.

    — Louis Manzo, the recent unsuccessful challenger in the Jersey City mayoral election and
    former state Assemblyman, and his brother and political advisor Robert Manzo, both with
    taking $27,500 in corrupt cash payments for use in Louis Manzo’s campaign.

    — Leona Beldini, the Jersey City deputy mayor and a campaign treasurer, charged with
    taking $20,000 in conduit campaign contributions and other self-dealing in her official
    capacity.

    — Eliahu Ben Haim, of Long Branch, N.J., the principal rabbi of a synagogue in Deal, N.J.,
    charged with money laundering of proceeds derived from criminal activity.

    — Saul Kassin, of Brooklyn, N.Y., the chief rabbi of a synagogue in Brooklyn, New York,
    charged with money laundering of proceeds derived from criminal activity.

    — Edmund Nahum, of Deal, N.J., the principal rabbi of a synagogue in Deal, charged with
    money laundering of proceeds derived from criminal activity.

    http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2009/07/feds_charge_44_with_corruption.html

  206. 3b says:

    #204 veto: And the town/s Beregn Co, NJ, and the country were in much better fiscal shape back than during both the boom and the bust

  207. John says:

    There is a war for talent going on, bonuses season is going to be good, our stocks and 401Ks are up, the cash in the bank rates are super low and taxes are going up and RE becomes a better tax advantage, these will be strong forces to overcome for those of us hoping for another 25% down in tony wall street bedroom communities.

  208. freedy says:

    10 years of investigating , stunning

  209. freedy says:

    fbi says NJ is the worse in the nation

  210. homeboken says:

    The PDF detailing Cammarano’s mis-deeds is epic.

    I was right not to vote for anyone tht frequents the Malibu diner. The food is a step above poison, but the empty tables provide good privacy to carry out your pay-for-play schemes.

  211. x-underwriter says:

    Clotpoll (191)

    Readington currently has 82 properties on the market priced at $500,000 or more. I don’t know how many months of inventory that works out to, but I’m sure it’s more than 3.

    On the other hand, the Fannie and Freddie REO sites do not list one single property in Hunterdon county being sold as a foreclosure. That’s amazing…not one!

  212. HEHEHE says:

    Veto,

    You read that indictment you see what I mean re Peter thinking he’s the smartest in the room. He brags about being an election lawyer at the same time he’s taking a bribe.

  213. Frank says:

    SRS down to 16.60, on a way to 15 today??

  214. gman says:

    #208

    NJ inventory is down from 16.7 months at the beginning of the year to 9.7 months (May 2009). Prices will begin to stabilize at about 6 months of inventory. The federal home buyer credit is expected to be extended in November with the passage of another bill which may provide buyers 15k with no income restrictions.

    Artifically propped up or not, houses prices will not see a 40% or 50% decline in NJ.

  215. freedy says:

    guy was selling body parts ,, nice guy
    10k for a kidney,, turns around and resells it.

  216. Orion says:

    Jingle: NJ & YOU, Bribing Together

    44 Names- Could it swell to more?

    http://www.nj.com/hudson/index.ssf/2009/07/complete_list_of_33_new_jersey.html

  217. Clotpoll says:

    Fun for all!

    “So in essence the forced choice to regulators and traders by the likes of Goldman and exchanges it the following: pre-trade clearance, i.e., seeing ahead of all trades for entities who use sponsored access, a platform that all will soon need to be used be everyone who wishes to remain competitive in this day and age where one extra millisecond of latency over a long enough timeline renders a speculator (or basically trader, now that “buy and hold” is dead) useless, or the threat of complete market collapse. In other words: do what we want or the repercussions will destroy the free market.

    It is time to call the bluff on all these alternatives by the administration and by Wall Street that have the apocalypse as one of the two options.”

    http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/07/lime-brokerage-next-long-term-capital.html

  218. r says:

    As someone posted earlier the complaint against Cammarano is epic.

    Imagine the conversations Toll Brothers, Applied Housing and every other developer in Hoboken had with the local machine to get a building put up.

    http://blog.nj.com/ledgerupdates_impact/2009/07/Mayor-Cammarano-Schaffer.pdf

  219. gman says:

    Top performing NJ towns (May 2009)

    Don’t expect big price declines here!

    Town / Months Inventory

    Rochelle Park – 1.8
    Glen Ridge – 2.5
    Plainsboro – 2.9
    Hillsdale – 3.5
    Midland Park – 3.5
    Middlesex – 3.5
    West Windsor – 3.7
    Oakland 3.8
    Cedar Grove – 3.8
    Chatham – 3.8
    Dumont – 3.9
    Emerson – 4.0
    Lyndhurst – 4.3
    River Edge 4.3
    Nutley – 4.3
    Maplewood – 4.4
    Montvale – 4.5
    Wykoff – 4.5
    MAywood – 4.6
    Miltown – 4.6

    What do most of them have in common? Very close to the city = big money jobs.

  220. John says:

    Ford’s 7.45 percent bonds due in July 2031 climbed 3 cents to 70 cents on the dollar at 11:54 a.m. in New York, according to Trace, the bond-pricing service of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. The yield fell to 11.1 percent.

    WOW, that bond was around 17 cents in Feb with a 40% YTM

  221. Clotpoll says:

    gman (225)-

    You are a troll and an idiot.

    Middlesex, close to the city/big money jobs?

    Yeah, right.

  222. Stu says:

    SA:
    Commercial Mortgage Portfolios and America’s Banks: Is the Sky Falling?

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/150793-commercial-mortgage-portfolios-and-america-s-banks-is-the-sky-falling

    “Throughout this credit crisis we have been inundated with news of how firms like MS and its ilk have faired. What needs to be considered is that the WSJ survey included 8,000 institutions, and unlike the retail mortgage business where loans were packaged and resold, most commercial mortgages are held on the originator’s books.

    I don’t know if all of this means the sky is falling but I have started carrying an umbrella!”

  223. veto that says:

    John, my F stock is up 40% in 3 or 4 months.
    too bad the gains are being offset by my plunging srs position.
    i sold out of some srs yesterday when i realized this rally could go to the moon before anyone even questions it.

  224. HEHEHE says:

    Man this market is nuts. 2% pop on this news.

  225. Richie says:

    I wouldn’t consider Oakland, NJ close to the city.

  226. NJGator says:

    Clot 227 – Must be all that big money in New Brunswick.

  227. gman says:

    #227

    Umm, I said *most* of them have that in common.

  228. NJGator says:

    225 – I’ve been watching some of those actual close in towns and there are plenty of price declines in Glen Ridge and Maplewood. Despite there only being 2.5 months inventory in Glen Ridge, I personally know of several properties in town that were pulled from market because they couldn’t sell. And these weren’t dumps on the Orange border either.

  229. BC Bob says:

    “gman (225)-

    You are a troll and an idiot.

    Middlesex, close to the city/big money jobs?”

    Clot,

    Throw in Maywood, Nutley, Lyndhurst, Dumont and Rochelle Park. These towns are getting annihilated.

    Simply, a pipe, or a piker’s, dream.

  230. veto that says:

    Dis HeHe.

    After reading the details i called my wife at home, asked her to defriend cammarano from my fb page.

  231. John says:

    approximately 70,000 Giants non-club seats have been sold out in the new stadium. The only seats available in the new stadium are the new Mezzanine Club C and the limited inventories in Mezzanine Club A & B as well as the Coaches Club. Please note that the ticket prices in our club sections will remain the same for at least the first three seasons in the new stadium.

    I am pretty suprised they sold 70K PSLs, they still have one year to go.

  232. John says:

    Veto, You just need to adjust your trading stategy, I recommend buying 50% less stock that goes down and 50% more stock that goes up.

  233. veto that says:

    “Don’t expect big price declines here!
    Very close to the city = big money jobs.”

    gman,
    i was kind of with you earlier in morning as i am a big fan of balancing the extreme doom in gloom in here.
    But then you totally blew it with that last post at 225.

  234. BC Bob says:

    Lyndhurst? A 4/2 was going for 450-500k at peak. Dig a ditch for close to city = big money jobs.

    Maybe I’m having a bad dream, wasn’t this the 2005 bull stance?

    http://www.njmls.com/cf/details.cfm?mls_number=2932512&id=999999

  235. Shore Guy says:

    ” Any advice on getting taxes / home value reassessed?”

    Hire Gator.

  236. Shore Guy says:

    And use PowerPoint.

  237. JBJB says:

    “Don’t expect big price declines here!
    Very close to the city = big money jobs.”

    I can’t tell you how many times I hear this nonsense get repeated, both from the folks in my NE Bergen Co office and among friends and people in my neighborhood in NE Monmouth Co.
    People seem to really think that everone else is making a ton of money.

  238. gman says:

    #237

    Isn’t it like 10k for a seat license?

  239. gman says:

    According to wiki:

    Bergen County ranks 18th among the highest-income counties in the United States in 2006 in terms of per-capita income.[3]

  240. gman says:

    Even more interesting:

    Morris County was the sixth-wealthiest county in the United States by median household income, and ranked tenth by per capita income. [3] It is the ninth-wealthiest county in the United States by personal per-capita income, the highest rank in New Jersey. [4]

  241. BC Bob says:

    “Bergen County ranks 18th among the highest-income counties in the United States in 2006 in terms of per-capita income.[3]”

    When did the RE bust begin?

  242. veto that says:

    gman,
    nj has high incomes but prices in relation to income grew out of whack.
    You also seem to be missing the idea that wall st and pharma are dying animals and they are the industries responsible for providing much of that wealth.
    If you said that we are starting a new biotech or alternative energy industry and pointed to some companies or towns where this is happening, then you might have a decent point but posting median income rankings from 2007 says nothing about how much prices can fall.

  243. relo says:

    On a call. 3/4 of the 177 S&P cos that have reported beat earnings. Avg earnings 25% below 2Q’08. Doh!

  244. NJGator says:

    Nom – You’ve got e-mail instead of fax.

  245. Secondary Market says:

    gman, where did you get those figures and do you have the rest of the state?

  246. NJGator says:

    Shore 242 – The PowerPoint is definitely the better of the 2 recommendations :)

  247. HEHEHE says:

    “After reading the details i called my wife at home, asked her to defriend cammarano from my fb page.”

    Lol, Veto, that’s a classic;)

  248. grim says:

    SOLOMON DWEK!!!

    Say it ain’t so! Solomon Dwek is the lynch pin in all of this.

  249. Essex says:

    249. Wall Street AND Pharma are dying? How so for Pharma? Aging population and new customers from the ‘uninsured’…how does this denote death? Or are you simply looking at the reduction of the sales forces which were bloated in the first place?

  250. Essex says:

    247. Morris County. Ranks #1 in BORING.

  251. gman says:

    Listen all I’m saying is that this area is flush with cash. We live in one of the wealthiest areas of the country. I don’t like it anymore than you, but it is what it is.

    Pharma nor Wall St is dying. I know people who are working in both industries, they are not at all worried about their jobs and they are making well into six figures. Sure those industries are not hiring like they were a few years ago, but neither are any other industries. We are in a period of contraction.

    Oh and for those for laughed at some of those towns on the list I posted saying they are not money towns.. that’s not entirely true either. For example, I know a couple that live in rochelle park, they make over 200k and live in this little itty bitty house. So what I’m trying to say, is that sometimes looks can be deceiving. Keep an open mind, someone people have the wealth of kings, but don’t live like it.

  252. hirono says:

    Solomon Dwek is the lynch pin grim.

    I was scrolling down comments all ready to mention it myself and you beat me.

    He is the co operating witness.

    Now that is what flipping is really all about!

  253. veto that says:

    “Or are you simply looking at the reduction of the sales forces which were bloated in the first place?”

    Essex, yes the latter. looking at jobs and the number of employed people who can buy homes.

  254. #255 – Deal & Ocean twp… That’s the right areas. Is he listed in any of the pdfs? I haven’t read them yet.

  255. #259 – hirono – He is the co operating witness.

    Ohhh! This could get interesting.

  256. All Hype says:

    gman (258):

    I can speak to pharma. When the Wyeth and Schering sales are complete there will be a lot of people out on the street. Your friends are delusional if they think they can stay in their jobs forever. There will be more consolidation and cuts in the near future. I know cause I was part of it. I have many friends on the development side and ain’t nothing going on in terms of developing blockbuster drugs. That’s why we are getting consolidation.

  257. veto that says:

    “Sure those industries are not hiring like they were a few years ago, but neither are any other industries. We are in a period of contraction.”

    Gman, you cant point your finger to gs and conclude that the wall st is fine. Its undergoing the biggest collapse in 90 years.
    The contraction may be bigger here because the expansion was so large here. thats another way to look at it.
    im not predicting what will happen with nj prices so im not even saying you’re wrong but you cant eliminate any scenario with any of the logic you offered here today.

  258. Clotpoll says:

    grim (255)-

    In related news, Solomon Dwek has announced a his new start-up business: a line of gourmet food products, including human foie gras.

  259. Qwerty says:

    RE: Another; http://www.njmls.com/cf/details.cfm?mls_number=2924723&id=999999

    The satellite dish mounted to the facade screams “big money job.”

  260. 3b says:

    #213 John:and RE becomes a better tax advantage.

    Oh really? for who? With 10k a year taxes fast becoming the average in many north Jersey communities, and in many much more.

    And lets not forget the property tax cap for those uber rich people in the 150k to 250k range. Yeah John, sure good advantage.

  261. Clotpoll says:

    gman (258)-

    Drop it already. Can we agree that this probably does not describe a significant number of residents of, say, Middlesex or Roselle Park?:

    “Keep an open mind, someone people have the wealth of kings, but don’t live like it.”

  262. Sean says:

    Serious jail time for Cammarano.

    For the charge of conspiracy to commit extortion under color of official right and/or attempted extortion under color of official right, the maximum statutory penalties are 20 years in federal prison and a maximum statutory fine of $250,000.

    For the charge of agreeing to offer a bribe payment to a public official, the maximum statutory penalties are 10 years in Federal prison and a maximum statutory fine of $250,000.

  263. 3b says:

    #220 gman: And you know that for a fact because why? Your realtor told you? Or are you yourself a realtor?

  264. Qwerty says:

    RE: “this area is flush with cash”

    This area is flush with debt.

  265. Sure those industries are not hiring like they were a few years ago, but neither are any other industries. We are in a period of contraction.
    Wall St. has been laying off actively for the past year and a half. The volume of layoffs may have slackened, but they are still going on.
    More ominous for the area; A lot of companies are looking to move current trade floors over seas. There is a lot of interest right now in building out in Singapore, China and India. This is being done in preparation to avoid varying regulatory schemes seen as inevitable.

  266. gman says:

    #272

    I think China and India are our biggest threat.

  267. stan says:

    veto that says:
    July 23, 2009 at 10:53 am
    Dissident HEHEHE says:
    “Cammarano is/was/always will be a hoodlum who looks nice in a suit.”

    Dis,
    i know cammarano and elwell. Had done business with their towns for a number of years.

    :

    Funny o nthe facebook. I have met Petey boy several times and each time I wanted to take a shower after meeting him. He was at St. Ann’s last nite, apparantly his birthday. i would have loved to see the expression on his smug face bright and early this morning.

    I was vocally against him during elections as were many and it’s unreal how everyones biggest fears about him we’re played out in that complaint. It really was riveting reading.

    Corzine booker et al have huuuuge amounts of egg on their faces with this one. Not to mention Genova Burns, which could be imploding as we speak. They must be in serious damage control, considering their main man to increase their foothold in Hudson county as well as head of their ELEC division is indicted and the amount of leverage they put into his campaign. He had a full staff from that firm to challenge absentees and at polling stations.

  268. BC Bob says:

    “Listen all I’m saying is that this area is flush with cash. We live in one of the wealthiest areas of the country. I don’t like it anymore than you, but it is what it is.”

    Sounds like a broken record, circa 2005/2006 on this site. Why do you think those with cash will support a dying, depreciating asset, tied to the hip with sky rocketing taxes? I know plenty with cash. They’re sitting on the beach, sipping c#cktails, waiting for the right time to strike. Unfortunately, for sellers they are not buying at 20% off peak. That’s for suckers.

  269. 3b says:

    #225 gman: Confimred. You are indeed a realtor.

    Oh and speaking for Bergen Co, Dumont, Rochelle Park, and Lyndhurst, are not and never were big money towns.

  270. Clotpoll says:

    Too bad we don’t have Sharia law in the US.

  271. stan says:

    dwek isnt the developer at the malibu diner.

    obv. he is the main man with the deal stuff.

  272. JBJB says:

    [256]

    I don’t think the pharma industry is “dying” in general, but NJ as a primary location for pharma companies (and specifically R&D, development and manufacturing operations) is certainly dying at a rapid pace. Just today, BMS buys Medarex, two NJ companies becoming one.

  273. #273 – I think China and India are our biggest threat.

    Just so we’re clear, the trade floors being built overseas are the high paying jobs currently in NYC/CT and the attendant support staff. The hedge funds, being able to see the writing on the wall, are almost all actively planning on moving shop. The IBs aren’t too far behind.
    Ten years from now the employment landscape in NYC will be drastically different. This is not indicative of positive price support for NNJ real estate.

  274. Qwerty says:

    RE: “buy for $999,999 or rent for $4,999”

    When does construction finish?

    http://p.rdcpix.com/v01/lf3d1ec41-m0o.jpg

  275. Essex says:

    263. Nonsense. It has always been a pretty tough industry to make it in if you are useless. Hard to hide in the top tier firms. But opportunities for employment here and in places like Switzerland are quite good.

  276. Secondary Market says:

    haha!

  277. Clotpoll says:

    Camden is one tough town:

    by The Associated Press
    Thursday July 23, 2009, 6:32 AM

    CAMDEN — Police said a 10-year-old robbed an 11-year-old at gunpoint.

    Camden police said the younger child made off with a skateboard.He was later identified among a group of youths not far from the crime scene at MacArthur Drive and Wainwright Street.

  278. Sean says:

    Not looking good for Corzine, DCA commissioner Joe Doria just resigned.

  279. freedy says:

    doria finished,, guy is a low life

  280. freedy says:

    corzine should do the right thing,, throw in the towel

  281. 3b says:

    #225 gman: I will apologize and say you are not a realtor. But please spare me with prices will not decline any more. Please provide one reasonable example, and not rhetoric as to why. People have come and gone with the same old tired rhetoric that prices would not fall, there was no bubble.

    Well it turns out there was a bubble,and prices did fall.

    Now its OK well they fell, but they won’t fall any more. Based on what? They fell and fell hard before, and things are far worse now than they were than, apart from all the denial right now.

  282. NJGator says:

    Clot 285 – Stu and I attended one minor league baseball game in Camden for our nephew’s birthday. Exiting the stadium, there was an armed police office on EVERY street corner (not an exaggeration) forcing all the suburbanites out of town through a single, well guarded street. No one was allowed to turn. Do not pass go. Do not collect $200. We have not been back since.

  283. HEHEHE says:

    RE Cammarano,

    Cute little 32 year old kid like him probably wouldn’t last too long in prison. He likely knows quite a bit about the goings on in Hoboken. If I was a part of machine I’d be more than a little nervous about having that wildcard available.

  284. Stu says:

    So it appears there is at least one sector in NJ that is recession proof. Public sector corruption.

  285. Clotpoll says:

    gator (290)-

    You’re just not tough enough. Arriviste. :)

    “We have not been back since.”

  286. Secondary Market says:

    @290
    i only watch those games from the pedestrian walk way on the ben franklin bridge.

  287. HEHEHE says:

    It gets bigger, literally and figuratively:

    DCA Commisioner Joe Doria resigns amid New Jersey corruption probe

    http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2009/07/dca_commisioner_joe_doria_resi.html

  288. freedy says:

    big joe, not missing to many meals.

    jon,, where’s Katz?

  289. John says:

    Property taxes aren’t really tax deductable anyhow to people in AMT. The big savings is the mortgage deduction. When we hit 50% tax rate a one million dollar mortgage at 5% interest is a 25K tax savings.

    3b says:
    July 23, 2009 at 2:17 pm
    #213 John:and RE becomes a better tax advantage.

    Oh really? for who? With 10k a year taxes fast becoming the average in many north Jersey communities, and in many much more.

    And lets not forget the property tax cap for those uber rich people in the 150k to 250k range. Yeah John, sure good advantage.

  290. NJGator says:

    You’re right, Clot. I also won’t take livery cabs from the outer boroughs in the middle of the night anymore. A former co-worker once called one for me to get me back to the PATH from Park Slope at 3 AM. The man who came to pick me up didn’t know how to get back to Manhattan and also had a bullet-hole in his windshield.

  291. 3b says:

    #297 John: OK and all the peons who won’t be in the 50% tax rate which is the overrwhelming popualtion makeup in NJ?

  292. Sean says:

    Corzine quote from today.

    “Any corruption is unacceptable – anywhere, anytime, by anybody,” said Corzine. “The scale of corruption we’re seeing as this unfolds is simply outrageous and cannot be tolerated.”

  293. John says:

    3b, NJ good towns are geared towards 250K+ families.

  294. HEHEHE says:

    Doria as head of the DCA was in charge of investigations of municipalities by the state. I have a feeling there’s all of a sudden many more nervous politicians in the state of NJ.

  295. 3b says:

    John: here we go again. But as per the 2005/06 census info, 70% of all households in Bergen Co make 100k or less a year.

    And round, and round, and round we go.

  296. Sean says:

    3b – you are forgetting about all of the envelopes passed around in Diners around the county.

  297. gman says:

    Huge increase in 10yr treasury today… interest rate surge coming.

  298. 3b says:

    #305 gman: And 6%+ mtgs too. So we must tank the stock market (again), casuing a flight to quality (tsys), casuing mteg rates to drop again, in an attmept to prop up housing.

    And round, and round, and round we go.

  299. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [300] sean

    ““Any corruption is unacceptable – anywhere, anytime, by anybody,” said Corzine. “The scale of corruption we’re seeing as this unfolds is simply outrageous and cannot be tolerated.”

    Corzine’s statement is pathetic, considering how many corrupt NJ pols Christie has prosecutied. How many corrupt politicians has Anne Milgram put away? (hint-no need to break out that second hand).

  300. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    prosecuted even

  301. John says:

    Who cares, only 10% of population makes a good income. Historically, only 10% could afford a good home in a blue chip train town. Bill Clinton and George Bush created this theory that everyone deserves their own mcmansion. Back to reality folks, 2-4 times incomes is what you should be paying and those BC million dollar homes should be bought by people making in excess of 350k a year not by cleaning women with liar loans that require no money down and teaser rates.

    3b says:
    July 23, 2009 at 3:15 pm
    John: here we go again. But as per the 2005/06 census info, 70% of all households in Bergen Co make 100k or less a year.

    And round, and round, and round we go.

  302. Thanks for posting about this, I would love to read more about this topic.

  303. relo says:

    308: Freudian slip?

  304. Stu says:

    I’m off to Nanticoke for another weekend of debauchery. This place is off the grid so have a great weekend all.

  305. Shore Guy says:

    “Nanticoke”

    Down in VA?

  306. Stu says:

    Maryland Shore Guy, but pretty damn close to VA!

    Lot’s o’ drinking, poker and bad movie watching in store.

  307. Shore Guy says:

    “You’re right, Clot. I also won’t take livery cabs from the outer boroughs in the middle of the night anymore. ”

    Gator,

    Over a drink sometime, remind me to tell you and Stu about my most memorable cab ride ever.

  308. Stu says:

    Mr. Softee came in soft.

  309. Shore Guy says:

    “another weekend of debauchery.”

    Heck,

    If that is how you spend all these vacations, it is little wonder you two are always on vacation.

  310. Shore Guy says:

    Out on the Delmarva pennisula though, right? We were thinking that might be an alternative loc3ion for a getaway place and I am heading down in a month to scope it out a bit.

  311. Shore Guy says:

    “Mr. Softee ”

    Is THAT what you call….ummm…mini Stu?

    If so, you may want to rethink that.

  312. NJGator says:

    Shore Guy – I am most definitely not on vacation this weekend. Stu is going off to drink beer, play poker, watch bad movies, crab and tell fart jokes with the guys while I get to stay home, tend to Lil Gator and the dog and take Lil Gator to three childrens birthday parties over 2 days. By Sunday night, I will very much need this drink to which you are referring.

  313. Stu says:

    Shore…

    That’s where it is. If you want off the grid, then that is the place.

  314. Shore Guy says:

    Stu,

    Access to water (ideally close to the ocean also) and water views are importat. Ideally enough land to avoid being on top of other people, would be nice, as would internet access.

  315. Shore Guy says:

    important, even

  316. SG says:

    Readington makes major changes in zoning regulations
    by Veronica Slaght/For The Star-Ledger
    Tuesday July 07, 2009, 9:37 PM

    Readington has made massive changes to its zoning.

    The largely rural Hunterdon municipality amended its land-use code Monday to prohibit new houses of worship anywhere except the Route 22 corridor. It also rezoned the once-renowned Ryland Inn in an effort to save the historic building, which is vacant and for sale, and increased minimum lot sizes, in some areas from six acres to 10.

    The 43-page ordinance was adopted unanimously. The planning board worked on the zoning ordinance for more than a year and on a study of the Whitehouse corridor for at least three years, said board chairwoman Mary Grace Flynn.

  317. SS says:

    I have to disagree here. The corruption & worldwide mistrust of these countries will not allow this to happen. I’m not saying they won’t leave NYC, but I highly doubt India & China will assume this power. Back-office ops, maybe, but not the big $$ frontliners.

    toshiro_mifune says:
    July 23, 2009 at 2:28 pm

    #273 – I think China and India are our biggest threat.

    Just so we’re clear, the trade floors being built overseas are the high paying jobs currently in NYC/CT and the attendant support staff. The hedge funds, being able to see the writing on the wall, are almost all actively planning on moving shop. The IBs aren’t too far behind.
    Ten years from now the employment landscape in NYC will be drastically different. This is not indicative of positive price support for NNJ real estate.

  318. Shore Guy says:

    Is Readington perhaps trying to ensure that land that could host highly-taxed homes does not turn into tax-free land?

  319. NJGator says:

    Shore 324 – I highly doubt that FIOS is available there :) As late as last year there wasn’t even cell phone service (and there probably still isn’t this year).

  320. gman says:

    #289

    I didn’t say prices weren’t going to decline any further. I said that I don’t think they will fall further then an additional 10%.

    If the prices in the area you want to buy are approaching pre-bubble pricing (or are within 10% of pre-bubble), your area may be pretty close to the bottom in pricing. In the paticular area I’m looking in NJ (a little futher out west), we’re getting pretty close. A vague generalization that seems to apply is the closer to NYC you are, the further you are from that number.

    I personally will probably buy something by the end of the year. Even if I I don’t buy in at the absolute bottom in pricing, waiting any further probably won’t be beneficial since interest rates are going to really start to rise by the end of the year.

  321. BC Bob says:

    “waiting any further probably won’t be beneficial since interest rates are going to really start to rise by the end of the year.”

    I hope rates go to 10%. Blow the thing to smithereens

    To borrow from rentingnnj, you can always refinance your mortgage rate, you can’t refinance your purchase price.

  322. SG says:

    A correction and clarification on sale price of Birchwood properties

    In 2006, the then-owner of the lands (Elberon Development) decided (with a group called Woodmont Properties) that it wanted to build approximately 155 upscale near-luxury town homes for “empty nesters” age 55 and older. In 2007, as a result of a few self-important and under-informed neighbors, opposition started. They used negative comments (some in print) about the widow lady who owned Elberon. Many were irrelevant and “class based,” citing the fact that she was well-to-do. Resorting to scare tactics based upon questionable science and engineering, some neighbors naively joined the opposition.

    Just before the 2007 elections, Woodmont’s application was withdrawn. Money or financing was never stated as the reason. Enter now in 2008 the Hekemian group. As reported, it was already familiar with Cranford from the Riverfront Development Project. It also had the opportunity to observe the delays or lack of success of other developers when dealing with the Township.

    In 2009, Cranford finds itself sucked into defending an expensive COAH “builder’s remedy” lawsuit. Now the request is about constructing 400 residential units and a parking garage.
    Let’s be realistic. In 2006-2007 the housing market was in full boil. The development-phobic neighbors didn’t care to understand the long-term good luxury housing would have meant for our Township. Being ignorant or poorly advised about the pressures of the COAH regulations, they just didn’t want upper middle, professional, or executive class people living next to them. Some would be single (as in widow), and some of those affluent neighbors would be away at second homes four to six months a year.

    Today, the real estate market is tepid at best. Clearly 400 units (with children allowed) would be marketed to a different socio-economic group. Financing is harder to get, but there are special programs for lower income people and first-time homebuyers. The IRS offers a large tax credit to the latter.

  323. jcer says:

    gman, a whole lot of X factors here. Unemployment where is it going? Rates? etc. There are many factors at play, I personally think the economy is very ill and recovery is not close, price will fall further here, bank appraisal will not come in and the foreclosures aren’t even halfway through the system. Are prices bottomed in FL, I would say it is close S. Florida hasn’t been so cheap in years it is like 2001 down there, NYC metro area, not so much.

  324. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [314] john

    Add this to the mix! It just keeps getting better and better. I cant’t wait to see Gibbs spin this.

    “CAMBRIDGE, Mass.—The white police sergeant criticized by President Barack Obama for arresting black scholar Henry Louis Gates Jr. in his Massachusetts home is a police academy expert on understanding racial profiling.

    Cambridge Sgt. James Crowley has taught a class about racial profiling for five years at the Lowell Police Academy after being hand-picked for the job by former police Commissioner Ronny Watson, who is black, said Academy Director Thomas Fleming.

    “I have nothing but the highest respect for him as a police officer. He is very professional and he is a good role model for the young recruits in the police academy,” Fleming told The Associated Press on Thursday.

    The course, called “Racial Profiling,” teaches about different cultures that officers could encounter in their community “and how you don’t want to single people out because of their ethnic background or the culture they come from,” Fleming said. The academy trains cadets for cities across the region.

    Obama has said the Cambridge officers “acted stupidly” . . .”

    Also add the fact that Gates claimed he never shouted and couldn’t because of a medical condition, yet the guy who got the picture of him on the porch, with his mouth wide open, said he was “out of control”, “agitated” and “shouting.”

    And what I find really interesting is this: There isn’t any real discrepancy between Gates’ story and the cops’. None of significance. It is more a question of Crowley’s motivation for arresting Gates, and Gates’ claim that Crowley’s actions prior to the arrest were improper.

    As an attorney admitted in Mass. and the son of a retired cop (which means I may be “a little biased”), I can state categorically that by all accounts (including Gates), the police acted properly, and what is at issue (and is the only thing at issue) is whether they should have arrested him for Disorderly Conduct. Every action taken prior to that was by the book (whether or not you think the book is correct, but I would not want to sacrifice a cop on the altar of political correctness). Further, there is no question that they could have arrested Gates; his behavior fits within the conduct proscribed by the state’s DOC statute. The only issue is whether they should have, and that is tainting everything else.

  325. 3b says:

    #330 gman: Please do not tell me you are that naive, to think that when rates spike, prices will not drop further? Give me an 8% 30 year fixed right now.

  326. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [314] john

    And recall that the report notes that (1) Crowley made a radio call, and (2) Gates made a call to (presumably) the police department.

    Once those calls are corroborated, and especially if there is a tape of Gate’s call, then all the CPD need do is leak them and its Game Over for Gates, and also for the Mayor of Cambridge who didn’t back her cop and found herself backing a liar.

  327. stan says:

    re hudson :

    can’t believe that Dwek was the witness with the wire. I mean seriously, that schlep?

    unbelievable. I thought he was just involved with the deal crew. wow. cammarano is a moron

  328. cooper says:

    gman don’t underestimate shadow inventory…

  329. Pol Clot says:

    stan (337)-

    The real morons are the people who bought homes in that cesspool of a town.

  330. #327 – SS –I’m not saying they won’t leave NYC, but I highly doubt India & China will assume this power. Back-office ops, maybe, but not the big $$ frontliners

    These aren’t back office infrastructures I’m building. RMDS, Wombat & SRTech with large Dealing & EBS systems. These are definitely for traders not ops.
    China, esp. seems to be very very flexible and willing to meet needs.

  331. grim says:

    hey you,

    Went under contract with an asking price of $359,900, 11 days on market. Closing date says 9/30, so hopefully we can know more about the sale price then. I’ll say, with 11 dom, I’m thinking it was close to ask.

    You are right about the prior purchase, $429,900 on 06/24/05 .

    Ouch!

  332. Sean says:

    Who put on their rally hat?

    Over this?

    http://i29.tinypic.com/166k8l3.jpg

  333. Wciąż patrzący (wyglądający; spojrzenie) says:

    anyone use Ally.com for banking?

    Pros, cons?

  334. sas says:

    “Canadian Banks now requiring urine and hair samples to obtain mortgage?”

    http://thenorthwestherald.blogspot.com/2009/07/canadian-banks-now-using-urine-and-hair.html

  335. yikes says:

    think it’s been covered, but in this climate, what’s a good # to retire with? 1 mil each for you and wife?

    or if you try to retire at 59, is a million not going to last you 30 years, since the life expectancy 50 years from now for men will probably be about 90?

  336. sas says:

    rally? RE leveling?

    man, what won’t you saps believe?

    SAS

  337. zieba says:

    Wciaz patrzacy,

    Ally bank to to samo co GMAC. Ta sama kompania pzerobiona/inna strona internetowa.

  338. sas says:

    ” 50 years from now for men will probably be about 90?”

    in 50 years will there even be healh care? for the rich? or will be rationed?

    I hope i don’t hit 90 so some knucklehead manchurian candidate trys to collect their BMW payment by cutting me with a scalpel, or telling me I need chemo.

    yeah right.
    kiss the sky
    SAS

  339. gary says:

    For Amy Musial, who manages a Starbucks in Sacramento buying a house became “a no-brainer” this spring once she and her husband realized that their monthly payments would be slightly lower than the rent they had been paying on a two-bedroom apartment. They paid about $229,000 for a three-bedroom house that had been through a foreclosure. Several years ago, the same house could have sold for more than $350,000, estimates Shelley Hescock, the real-estate agent who represented the Musials.

    Do you hear that Mr. and Mrs. Tubby? That’s a 35% drop!

    But prices of higher-end homes around the country have been slower to fall because there have been fewer foreclosure and other forced sales of such properties. That is changing as more owners of fancy homes lose jobs, fall behind on mortgages or chop asking prices to realistic levels.

    Oh Really?

    Among metro areas that “still have a long road to recovery” are New York, Seattle and Portland, among others, in this category. Problems in these areas include high unemployment and large numbers of vacant homes.

    But…. but… not in North Jersey, right? Right? Right? Wrong!! Coming to a neighborhood in Haughtypoopooville: Price Change! Price Change! Price Change! Keep holding out for the 650K on that bilevel, Mabel!

  340. gary says:

    grim, unmod me!

  341. kettle1 says:

    SAS

    look what happened to life expectancy in russia after the fall of the USSR. it has been falling since then.

    If this mess in the US is as big as some think then in 50 years you statistically wont have to worry about what happens when you are 90.

  342. kettle1 says:

    Age-adjusted mortality in Russia rose by almost 33% between 1990 and 1994. During that period, life expectancy for Russian men and women declined dramatically from 63.8 and 74.4 years to 57.7 and 71.2 years, respectively, while in the United States, life expectancy increased for both men and women from 71.8 and 78.8 years to 72.4 and 79.0 years, respectively. More than 75% of the decline in life expectancy was due to increased mortality rates for ages 25 to 64 years.

  343. sas says:

    “3 NJ mayors, lawmakers arrested in corruption case”
    http://tinyurl.com/ntw7bv

    how many times have I hinted about these type of dealings?

    hark.
    These fellows in this story are nothing more than wee tots.

    You want another nugget to chew on?
    look into laddering’ frauds on sold options in Nortel working capital.

    but hey, what do I know?
    SAS

  344. Barbara says:

    a real bubble anecdote to chew on. Bought my current residence in 1999 for 195k from a man who bought it in 1989 for 195k.
    Just sayin.

  345. House Whine says:

    #353
    Sas, most of the time I admit I don’t know what you are talking about because I lead a really sheltered life but I am so glad you contribute to this board.

  346. sas says:

    “USSR”

    well, he..he…
    i never knew a red agent whom didn’t like vodka and 1k/hr call girls.

    and you think little Tom Hanky’s Charlie Wilson’s War movie was a true story?

    ha ha
    thats right, believe that rally.
    buy now or be priced out forever.

    SAS

  347. Barbara says:

    I’m waiting for breaking new that sgt Crowley is actually half black on his mothers side.

  348. kettle1 says:

    SAS

    1K/hr call girls in russia????? what were you doing, importing them from Rio???

  349. sas says:

    “1K/hr call girls in russia????? what were you doing, importing them from Rio???”

    i never said they were from Russia, and that didn’t include transportation back & forth.

    Talk about one exspensive “outcall”

    SAS

  350. yo'me says:

    PATNA, India (Reuters) – Farmers in an eastern Indian state have asked their unmarried daughters to plow parched fields naked in a bid to embarrass the weather gods to bring some badly needed monsoon rain, officials said on Thursday.
    Witnesses said the naked girls in Bihar state plowed the fields and chanted ancient hymns after sunset to invoke the gods. They said elderly village women helped the girls drag the plows

    http://www.reuters.com/article/oddlyEnoughNews/idUSTRE56M3G020090723

  351. reinvestor101 says:

    Dammit. All of these guys could have done something legal with all this damn bribing and just bought some of the real estate I’m selling. There’s no need to buy some stinking body parts when you can just buy a piece of the American dream by buying a damn house.

    Anyone who’s stupid enough to pass up on a chance to buy real estate while wasting money on bribing political officials, needs to have a deep hole dug, their ass thrown in it and the damn jail planted on top of them.
    Same damn thing applies to anyone taking money that should have gone to support the damn real estate market.

    Serves them right for wasting money. I hope they arrest them all.

    353.sas says:
    July 23, 2009 at 10:00 pm
    “3 NJ mayors, lawmakers arrested in corruption case”
    http://tinyurl.com/ntw7bv

    how many times have I hinted about these type of dealings?

    hark.
    These fellows in this story are nothing more than wee tots.

    You want another nugget to chew on?
    look into laddering’ frauds on sold options in Nortel working capital.

    but hey, what do I know?
    SAS

  352. sas says:

    reinvestor101,

    why don’t you take up residence in DC?
    we could use your ideas and vigor.

    SAS

  353. sas says:

    and you should go into the bulldozer biz.

    i will even buy your first Caterpillar D9.

    SAS

  354. Shore Guy says:

    From the AP. Note the number of NJ politicians who have pled guilty or been convicted in recent years:

    NEWARK, N.J. – An investigation into the sale of black-market kidneys and fake Gucci handbags evolved into a sweeping probe of political corruption in New Jersey, ensnaring more than 40 people Thursday, including three mayors, two state lawmakers and several rabbis.

    Even for a state with a rich history of graft, the scale of wrongdoing alleged was breathtaking. An FBI official called corruption “a cancer that is destroying the core values of this state.”

    Federal prosecutors said the investigation initially focused on a money laundering network that operated between Brooklyn, N.Y.; Deal, N.J.; and Israel. The network is alleged to have laundered tens of millions of dollars through Jewish charities controlled by rabbis in New York and New Jersey.

    Prosecutors then used an informant in that investigation to help them go after corrupt politicians. The informant — a real estate developer charged with bank fraud three years ago — posed as a crooked businessman and paid a string of public officials tens of thousands of dollars in bribes to get approvals for buildings and other projects in New Jersey, authorities said.

    Among the 44 people arrested were the mayors of Hoboken, Ridgefield and Secaucus, Jersey City’s deputy mayor, and two state assemblymen. A member of the governor’s cabinet resigned after agents searched his home, though he was not arrested. All but one of the officeholders are Democrats.

    Also, five rabbis from New York and New Jersey — two of whom lead congregations in Deal — were accused of laundering millions of dollars, some of it from the sale of counterfeit goods and bankruptcy fraud, authorities said.

    In rounding up the defendants, FBI and IRS agents raided a synagogue Thursday morning in Deal, a wealthy oceanfront city of Mediterranean-style mansions, with a large population of Syrian Jews.

    Those arrested included Levy Izhak Rosenbaum of Brooklyn, who was charged with conspiring to arrange the sale of an Israeli citizen’s kidney for $160,000 for a transplant for the informant’s fictitious uncle. Rosenbaum was quoted as saying he had been arranging the sale of kidneys for 10 years.

    The politicians arrested were not accused of any involvement in the money laundering or the trafficking in human organs and counterfeit handbags.

    The number of arrests was remarkable even for New Jersey, where more than 130 public officials have pleaded guilty or have been convicted of corruption since 2001.

    “New Jersey’s corruption problem is one of the worst, if not the worst, in the nation,” said Ed Kahrer, who heads the FBI’s white-collar and public corruption division. “Corruption is a cancer that is destroying the core values of this state.”

    Gov. Jon Corzine said: “The scale of corruption we’re seeing as this unfolds is simply outrageous and cannot be tolerated.”

    Hours after FBI agents seized documents from his home and office, New Jersey Community Affairs Commissioner Joseph Doria resigned. Federal officials would not say whether he would be charged. Doria did not return calls for comment.

    The informant, whose name was not released, was the hinge between the two investigations. He gave prosecutors information about the money laundering operation, and later, at the direction of the FBI, drew on his background to go after politicians.

    He found a particularly receptive ally in Hoboken Mayor Peter Cammarano III, according to prosecutors. The 32-year-old Cammarano, who won a runoff election last month, was accused of accepting money from the developer at a Hoboken diner.

    “There’s the people who were with us, and that’s you guys,” the complaint quotes Cammarano saying. “There’s the people who climbed on board in the runoff. They can get in line. … And then there are the people who were against us the whole way. … They get ground into powder.”

    Cammarano attorney Joseph Hayden said his client is “innocent of these charges. He intends to fight them with all his strength until he proves his innocence.”

    Cammarano was accused of accepting $25,000 in cash bribes. Secaucus Mayor Dennis Elwell was charged with taking $10,000. Ridgefield Mayor Anthony Suarez was charged with agreeing to accept an illegal $10,000.

    Jersey City Deputy Mayor Leona Beldini was charged with conspiracy to commit extortion by taking $20,000 in illegal campaign contributions. State Assemblymen Daniel Van Pelt and L. Harvey Smith were also accused of taking payoffs.

    Jersey City Mayor Jerramiah Healy said the charges were “a little shocking.”

    “I have full faith in Leona,” Healy said. “She’s a good friend of mine — was and will be.”

    Mike Winnick was praying inside the Deal Synagogue when it was raided. He said four FBI agents escorted a rabbi into his office and blocked the doorway. “Everyone was looking at each other, like, `What’s going on here?'” Winnick said.

    Busloads carrying those arrested were brought to the FBI’s Newark office. One agent slowly walked an elderly rabbi into the building as another covered his face with a felt hat.

  355. DL says:

    Secondary: Ref 201: I was considering Cherry Hill but out of control property taxes were too much of a concern. In the 08034 zip I’ve watched prices on 4bd 2br drop from 389k to 339k since the beginning of the year. 3 bd 2 br ranchers from 359k to below 300k. While the prices are softening, taxes keep going up. 10-12k a year on a 289k rancher with nothing but upside was too much considering we can do the same deal in Montegomery county for less than half that tax bill.

  356. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    Word is the Hon Peter Cammarano will refuse to resign and take a leave of absence. He supposedly is going to appoint one of his directors to run the city on rolling 30 day basis. If you live in Hoboken I beseech you to write, call, email the Governor to pressure him to not let this happen.

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